As Bitcoin is approaching $80,000, everyone is now
debating what's coming next. Michael Saylor just said that
Bitcoin is about to go higher. Whales are buying, BlackRock
nearly bought a billion dollars of Bitcoin in a day, and retail
is heavily shorting Bitcoin in the options market.
Only one side walks away from this cycle alive.
And today we're going to explore who will be right and the and
we're going to answer the question a lot of you are
probably getting. I'm getting this from my
friends. I'm sure you guys are getting
the same question. Is now the right time to buy
Bitcoin or should you wait until another dip happens?
So let's start with Sailor. He did another cryptic AI tweet.
I think this is the first time he's actually declared this.
Obviously we heard in the past he said the crypto winter isn't
going to last that long. There's a lot of debate because
the price did dump afterwards and now he's he's flipping
bullish guys, he tweeted the winter is over with a full what
Game of Thrones ask AI picture here.
So that's the that's the big question here is the quote
crypto winter officially over. Obviously the price is feeling a
little bullish. We're getting a little little
bit of more action. We are starting to see, as we
covered earlier in this week, this idea of a slow grind higher
playing out in real time. And if you're watching Bitcoin
and gold right now or Bitcoin priced in gold, it's looking
pretty bullish, guys. It's looking like it's trending
upwards and bounced off the bottom.
But anyways, we're going to start with one headline from
Yahoo News. I actually saw a couple of
different corporate media headlines that were pretty
similar, but this one gives 3 reasons.
So we're going to start here because it does kind of lean
into everything else I'm going to say.
So from Yahoo Finance, it goes Bitcoin prime for $80,000.
Question mark 3 reasons traders expect a rally within days.
Honestly, this sound, this sounds like a loop headline.
You have three weeks left. OK, anyways, I'm not going to
read the whole thing. I'm just going to kind of read a
couple of snippets here. The main quote, major
institutions are behind the move.
This is more institutional allocator money such as advisors
and major wealth channels as opposed to short term retail or
hedge fund basis trade flows, which is kind of the trend we
have been covering here lately. At least most of the reports are
essentially saying the institutions are buying right
now. They're starting to get bullish,
they're allocating, they're dropping products.
This is an institutional LED run, which is part of the reason
why I personally have been saying that it's we might not be
playing out in a traditional four year cycle, but what are
the three reasons? Obviously it's Michael Saylor
himself, and this is saying strategy buys, but really it's
Stretch. Stretch is still tearing guys.
As I told you guys two weeks ago, Sailor had his first
billion dollar week with Stretch last week.
It almost got the $4 billion. He's got another billion dollar
weekend with Stretch buying Bitcoin.
So that's three weeks in a row that Sailor through his STRC
product is buying a billion dollars a week.
If this continues, if next week we see another billion dollar
buy and that's kind of the new trend here, this might by itself
change where things are going, just this amount of interest
into Stretch, the amount of capital, amount of money flowing
into Stretch so that Sailor can buy more Bitcoin.
We haven't seen this before. This stretch product is
something completely different and everyone is starting to
notice. So let me go back to the Yahoo
Finance article just to give you the headlines.
And then it says stress test, You know, second Bitcoin
weathered a major weekend stress test.
Nearly $300 million exploit in major decentralized finance
protocol triggered withdrawals of around 10 billion across
crypto projects. This one, I don't know.
I don't know if this one's really that much of a factor.
Obviously, yeah, it's never good when you see an exchange
basically get scammed here, but I I think we've seen bigger ones
in the past. And then probably the bigger
macro picture one, the stock market sentiment.
If you guys are watching the stock market, S&P 500's all time
high again, you know equities have rebounded, Nasdaq's
ripping, Dow Jones is climbing up and this point right here.
I want you to keep in mind this last point because I do have a
couple of tweets in regards to this idea, but let's keep it
moving a little bit. One of the big things that we're
seeing is it seems like everyone in the market, or at least all
of retail right now, it seems like the entire crypto Twitter,
Bitcoin, Twitter retail market is going short.
It seems like everyone is expecting another leg down.
As everyone's been talking about on Twitter, this idea, classic
meme of sell in May and go away. Everyone is kind of expecting
what we saw in April. The price is going to rebound
and then it's going to dump in May.
You're going to get another opportunity to buy a a lower
price. And then of course the whole
idea of the bear or bull market is going to come back in
October. But we are seeing something that
can potentially be a catalyst for the price to move the
opposite direction. And by that I mean to the upside
and it is the Bitcoin funding rates.
The Bitcoin funding rates just hit extreme negative levels,
absolutely insane. The entire market is positioned
short right now, every trader paying to bet against Bitcoin.
But in the 10 years of market data, what is really telling us
about this more of this moment is extreme negative funding is
not a bearish signal. It's actually rocket fuel.
So as we've all been covering, you know, is the supply shock,
the short squeeze in the room with us, the mother of all
supply shocks in the room with us.
I'm not saying it's in the room with us yet, but I am saying
there's a potential for an an epic short squeeze to play out
because literally the entire retail market is short.
And as you know, retail is most part usually wrong.
So if the entire retail market is basically shorting Bitcoin
right now, Bitcoin usually does the exact opposite.
So it it looks like we might be seeing some crazy amount of
shorts liquidated in the next few days.
If we see that happen, as this tweet says, it's rocket fuel.
One of the setups. OK, and then going a little
further on the short set up. Here's our boy check matey.
You know our I don't want to say second favorite Aussie, but our
other favorite Aussie out here that's doing incredible work.
He goes bears are paying 12% interest rates to be short
liquidations heavily skewed to the short side options still
heavily dominated by fearful put buying deep OTM puts command a
10 to 20% premium versus calls. The bears really, really, really
want the price to go lower. I'm looking at you, Nico.
I'm looking at you over there. OK, Going further, this is where
you start to really analyze what does this short squeeze mean?
Like what? What did we see happen in April?
Here's crypto quant and it goes BTC rally was a short squeeze.
As long as price depends on more, sorry, as long as price
depends more on derivatives than on solid spot validation, the
structure will remain vulnerable to reversal.
So this is putting a little cold water on the bullishness because
hey, as we're seeing negative funding rates, it seems like the
entire market is short right now.
If we do see another exponential short squeeze to the upside,
it's not the most bullish setup for a continued run to the
upside. So sailors saying winter is
over, we are seeing some indicators of that being the
case that maybe we are rallying higher, but we're also not
seeing the strongest setup right now and it's basically because
we're not seeing incredible amounts of people just buying
spot Bitcoin, but we are seeing the whales are back on the
table. This was actually a couple of
days ago shouts out the Bitcoin archive and he goes Bitcoin
whales bought 1,000,000 plus Bitcoin in three months while
it's holding 100 to 10,000 Bitcoin added approximately
45,000 Bitcoin last week, the fastest rate since July 2025.
So you're seeing, I don't like to say smart money too, too
much. I do say it obviously because
everyone sort of understands what that means.
But when the whales come back in and start buying, that's usually
an indicator of maybe we're starting to see a bottom.
Maybe they understand or maybe they're trying to influence the
markets in ways that the average person can't, which is obviously
why they're called whales. And going further, it's not just
the whales that hold a lot of Bitcoin in the dresses.
We did see an incredible amount of buying from the ETF, so
institutions aren't getting scared right now.
And here we have Andre who is head of research at Bitwise and
he goes good morning, morning from Switzerland.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have purchased 18,991 Bitcoin over
the past five trading days, checks numbers.
That's nine times the new supply in that period.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin is clearly accelerating.
So again, I've been talking about this phenomenon on the
show for the last couple of weeks.
While retail is shorting Bitcoin, they think it's going
to go lower. What are the institutions doing?
They're accumulating right now and as I said in the beginning,
you know, I, I know Niko likes to say Bitcoin isn't 0 sum, but
trading sure is 0 sum. So someone's going to be right
here. And personally, I, I hate to say
it, I think my money's on the institutions.
They have a lot more money than retail combined.
So interesting phenomenon. And of course a single entity,
like I said in the beginning, BlackRock almost bought a
billion dollars. Well, you know the clients of
the BlackRock ETF, but BlackRock yesterday just pulled 970
million into Bitcoin in a single day.
Again, crypto Twitter is still arguing about the bottom.
I bit has had 9 consecutive days of inflows, 806,700 Bitcoin
total of course almost 2 billion over the past month.
Year to date inflows put I bit in top 1% of all ETFs globally.
They want Bitcoin guys. And this goes into another
headline from the block, which is showing just how much the
ETFs are buying and a bullish case for the ETFs at least year
to date. And it is of course, Bitcoin ETF
flows turn positive for the year.
Institutions want Bitcoin ETFs whether we like them or not.
They want Bitcoin ETFs, they want that Bitcoin exposure.
We saw a almost 50% drawdown. It didn't scare away the ETF
buyers. Yes, there's been some outflow
days, but the majority, again, year to date, it's positive.
They're buying Bitcoin. The 50% discount that we've been
talking about, or right now it's what 30 something percent
discount that we've been talking about.
They're chomping at the bits for this.
As we always say, if you like Bitcoin at 126 K, then you're
going to love it at a 40% discount.
Well, it looks like institutions are living up to that meme.
That's exactly what they're doing.
Anyways, I'm going to read the the short of it, and then I have
a couple of little quotes from this article.
And it goes. Flows, of course, have turned
positive for the year. Every rolling period tracked by
Bloomberg for spot Bitcoin ETFs is in the green.
And even though the ETFs bled amid depressed Bitcoin prices
and geopolitical and economic fears, outflows were
comparatively muted, which is what I just said.
Yes, there was some scenarios, some days here where we were
seeing outflows, but we seen year to day inflows.
The amount of buying from institutions is finally overcome
and even the outflows have been pretty small.
But I highlighted a few quotes here, or I hope I did.
Yeah, I did. Here we go.
Here's a quote and it says Slavin noted that crypto ETF
traders are somewhat unique in their willingness to hold in the
face of drawdowns. Quote Granted, there were some
outflows, but they were modest compared to the significant
inflows. We didn't see the rush to the
exits by retail or other investors in ETFs like maybe you
would see in other risk assets when the market turns incredibly
sour again, if you've been selling your Bitcoin, the ETF
buyers are more bullish than you.
We we can't let that happen guys.
We we can't let that happen. We can't let the paper Bitcoin
holders be more bullish than the people that are holding spot
Bitcoin ETF, and this is probably where I'm looking at a
lot of the TA traders. I'm looking at Nico actually
here saying we're going to 40K. He could be right.
You know, hey, he could be right, but we got to tell people
to buy. You want to be buying right now,
Don't be trading this stuff. Anyways, one more quote and he
goes, but another explanation has to do with the supposed
reason dead try I I can't speak French, a Bitcoin ETFs quote.
It is more of a structural play. They're using them in asset
allocation models, buy and hold strategies, not just tactical
trading tools, which is again, something we've been talking
about here. A lot of the reports that we're
that we're seeing coming out from these institutions marketed
or rather, you know, push to the ETF buyers.
Is this idea of, hey, you want to buy Bitcoin for the long
term, buy and hold strategies is this isn't the basis trade
playing out. This isn't you buy the ETF so
that you can head your shorts. They're like, no, add this as a
diversifier to your portfolio. Manage your risk and you're
going to be a lot better off in the future.
You do not want to miss out on this.
So this is a a fundamental shift in the narrative and the
education coming from the institutions in regards to
Bitcoin. And of course, well, really it's
the Bitcoin ETF, but it is it is starting to look like what we're
seeing. The institutions are probably
more bullish than you guys out there because everyone thinks
we're going to dump more. But on top of that, again,
BlackRock didn't just buy a almost a billion dollars in one
week. Over the last week, they've
almost bought 1 1/2 billion dollars of Bitcoin or 18,180
bitcoins. So that's a significant chunk.
OK, that's, that's some money. Now put that in the context of
one single buyer, BlackRock. Well, multiple people at
BlackRock, you know, or sorry, multiple people that are buying
the I Bit ETF have scooped up about 1 1/2 billion.
Stretch itself has scooped up 1.1 billion.
And these are just the numbers that we know from 2 entities.
Again, when someone with high conviction comes into the market
and wants to scoop up a lot of Bitcoin, it fundamentally breaks
all of our models. Now that's kind of the bullish
case. And I, I told you to keep in
mind the Third Point of that Yahoo Finance article, which is,
you know, based on what we're seeing in the broader markets,
in the stock markets, we're tentatively bullish.
But I really like this breakdown here, which I think again throws
a little cold water on our bullishness here.
This is econometrics. And he goes, Bitcoin is
rallying, but the market it depends on is not that strong.
The S&P 500 is at new all time highs, but only roughly 55% of
stocks are above their 200 day average and strong rallies.
That number is closer to 65 to 75%.
This is a narrow move driven by a small group of stocks.
Bitcoin is still trading at a risk.
Sorry, Bitcoin is still trading as a risk asset.
So if this equity rally loses momentum, Bitcoin won't be
immune. And we have seen this play out.
Remember, I've been trolling a lot about the fact that seems
like every market right now is dependent on a Trump tweet.
It seems like whatever Trump is tweeting, whether it's at 9:00
AM during the trading day or after the markets close, we've
been swinging wildly. And right now what we are seeing
is people are starting to feel a little bullish in equities and
stocks. They're starting to feel like,
okay, maybe this war in the Middle East isn't going to
really affect everything as bad as we thought it was.
It looks like we got last night another, you know, a three-week
extension on this ceasefire. As we covered in the beginning
of the week, we got a ceasefire, an indefinite ceasefire.
We didn't have an end date here, but we got an updated three more
weeks of ceasefire. So the markets are cooling off a
little bit. They're like, well, at least for
the next three weeks, we have some certainty on what's going
to happen. Obviously that can fundamentally
change, but we are seeing that the broader macro market, the
broader macro view right now is hey, we are we're feeling kind
of bullish again. S&P 5 hundreds hitting a new all
time high. NASDAQ, I don't think they hit a
new all time high, but it's trending towards a new all time
high. NVIDIA is ripping right now,
you're starting to see. We should just sell our bags.
Dude, we should just be AI Maxis.
Actually, Nikko, on that point, since I did bring up AI, what
was that stat you told me this morning about the AI stocks?
OK, I don't know if this is 100% true because again, you have to
like if you see any type of comment on X, like the beauty of
X is like it's unfiltered news. But you do have to don't trust
verify. But I did see a post from a
reputable news aggregator that said 45% of the S&P 500
consisted of AI related stocks. Something.
Bubbles sell huge, so the the. The reason I brought that up is
because the reason I brought that up is because the.com
bubble was very similar in that regard.
Now, of course, if the S&P crashes, it's going to take
Bitcoin down with it. But if you take a look at
the.com bubble, it's not that the speculation of the adoption
of the Internet was wrong, it's that it was completely
overvalued for where the Internet was at that time,
right? So like there is the infamous
pet.com from that era and the valuation on that company was
just ridiculous. Like it it just didn't make any
sense. Also, and Tropic, which is the
company behind Claude, one of the LLMS, you know, they have
plans to go public, you know, somewhat recently.
And of course, Elon Musk, you know, X essentially, you know,
is connected to grok, right? So.
You know, could we see a.com bubble 2 point O type of
scenario where there's so much hype around AI?
There's so much you see it everywhere.
We saw a company that there we go.
Love the memes. This meme's so funny.
Open AI Entropic XAI. The future economy.
Permanent underclass, right? That's hilarious.
But you know, the, the question is, is like is, are we getting
ahead of our skis? Is the market getting ahead of
their skis? Because I think that like the
current state of AI, right? And I'm going to talk as a
content creator, I'm going to talk to someone who literally
uses every single one. So I've used, I use AI, use
Grok, I use chat GB TI use Claude, they're all good at
specific things and etcetera, etcetera.
But like, are they really living up to the hype and the
valuations that they're living up to?
I would make the case that in Tesla's case, I would say
Tesla's, which again is connected to Grok, right?
You, you literally have Grok inside of Tesla.
I would say that is the most advanced AI company there is.
And the reason for that is there's a real world use case.
What is that real world use case?
That real world use case is the fact that Tesla's drive
themselves, right? So it's like real world AI,
artificial intelligence that's driving the car.
Now, does that justify the AI in the LLMS?
And the LLMS are great for research.
They're great. You could talk to them, right?
It's like talking like Opti calls him a demon.
I, I would, I would tend to agree with that right?
You're talking to a. Robot.
That's not what I call him. That's literally what Elon Musk.
Calls him so like you are like you are talking to like this
like computer. Sometimes they get things
completely wrong, but what is the usefulness of those things?
That's like the, the, the $1,000,000 question.
Now they can create images from the content perspective, They've
helped us create videos, but how much value does that actually
provide organizations? Now, I'll give you another case
study. So Block recently laid off about
40% of their employees. Jack Dorsey said the reason that
he he did that is because AI is able to automate all these jobs,
right? Like a lot of the jobs that were
necessary before for middle management and stuff like that,
they were able to automate it using AI tools.
So again, like if that is really the case, if these corporations
are able to lay off 40% of their workforce because AI is able to
automate things and it's able to optimize things, then I would
say, you know, the valuations are somewhat justified because
that's in stark contrast to the.com bubblelikethe.com
bubble. Like pets.com was not, it didn't
justify its valuation. Like a lot of these valuations
didn't justify their valuations. That's not to say the market
wasn't wrong. I think the market was right.
The problem is that the Internet really took about another 10
years, 10 to 15 years to mature to a point where these companies
were the backbone of the economy, right?
In 1999, using the Internet was an option, right?
You didn't have to manage your business.
You didn't have to run your business via the Internet.
By 2010, if you weren't using the Internet to do something
like to interact, I mean to, to, if you weren't integrating the
Internet with your business, you were at a competitive
disadvantage. By 2020, which was 21 years
later, if you didn't use the Internet as a business, you
would go out of business, right? So we're kind of in this like
overlapping phase where right now I would say that you can get
away with running a business without AI.
You can do it in 10 years. I don't think that's going to be
the case now. Does that justify the
speculation that we see with the LLM models and, and all of that
stuff? Perhaps perhaps this isn't
the.com bubble. What I will say is in regards to
demand, in regards to demand of compute power to, to service all
this AI demand, it's literally going parabolic.
So, and that does not lie, right?
That does not lie. The amount of compute power that
these AI companies or people that are using AI that continues
to go through the roof. So it could be, you know, this,
this pivotal shift, right? And, and, and I would say
compared to the Internet, I would say that, you know,
ChatGPT or clod or any of the things that we use internally to
make content. Like I got to say, guys, it's
made us a lot more efficient. It's made people a lot more
productive. So I would say it's a little bit
different, but again, you know, the market tends to get over
euphoric. It tends to assign these
overvaluations to things that might not be there yet.
The the market ultimately is forward-looking, right.
So, you know, I don't know, I, I, I don't know.
But when I see that number, then again I have not verified, but
when I'm seeing that 45% of the S&P 500 is connected to some AI
related, you know, product and stuff like that, you know,
that's where kind of like a little red flag goes up in my
head and. Wait, the economy is running on
hot? Air, no, I never, I never, I
never said that. I never said that.
But it it's just it it's to make the case that we might be we
might be, it might be the market might be assigning valuations to
these companies that might not necessarily have those they they
don't justify those valuations. However, how a political.
Response. No, I mean, it's the truth.
It's not a political response. It's the truth.
But what I will tell you, this is the amount of the amount of
compute power that is in demand right now that continues to go
parabolic and that will continue to go parabolic.
And that was a big part of the Trump administration's plans.
It wasn't just crypto that they were focusing on.
It was also AI, right? They, they did bring in David
Sachs, the AI and Cryptozar. It wasn't just the Cryptozar, it
was the AI and Cryptozar. And there's a, there's a synergy
between both of them. And we have, we, we had, we had
the honor of having Idan, the CEO of, of, of, of Hive Digital
Technologies coming in to talk about this the other day.
And we've had Frank Holmes, the executive chairman of Hive to
come in to talk about this, right?
The amount of compute power that is in demand to fund all these
better to service all this AI demand is continuing to go
through the roof. And if AI continues to develop
the way that it is and if it continues to be a part of
society, a part of the economy that cannot be replaced, then I
don't think it is a bubble at all.
I think, I think the the market is just.
OK, enough of the AI stuff. Nico, I was actually going to
ask you this yesterday. Do you think Sailor's right?
The winter is over. Where we at, Nico?
Where we at? Where we at in your head?
Is the winter over by wait? What did you say?
Are we going to see 39 K? So.
Is Ben Cowan right? So is is the winter over?
This is where like we are kind of in an uncharted territory.
If the cycle were to repeat itself, if the four year high
four year cycle is to repeat itself in downtrends you usually
have a bounce back. We've clearly this is what has
happened. We went, we had a downtrend for
five months and we are having a bounce back, right.
We hit, I think it was 58 K, 60K around that.
It was like 60s. Well, I saw 6300 or something
like that. So 6060 K.
So then it's normal in a downtrend for you to have these
bounce backs? I think for me to be fully
convinced that it's over, I would like to see 100K this year
for me to be fully convinced. And at 100K you're going to be.
Convinced and I would also want to see and I would also want to
see that during the summer months, which is the famous
means sell in May and then go away.
Bitcoin maintains these levels right?
So it not only stays at the 77K region, if it goes back to the
63K region, it holds that line and if it does that over the
summer, then the bottoms in right I I, I, I could say that
like with with confidence right? Of course this is speculative.
No one knows the future, but again, if you look at it from
the four year cycle perspective, everything's playing out exactly
like it has in every other cycle.
We, we, we've just had a bounce back.
This is normal. Every other single Bitcoin bear
market, guess what, we've had bounce backs.
That is totally normal. That is part of the course,
right? So, yeah, that's my answer to
that, man, is it looks really, really optimistic.
It looks great. The amount of Bitcoin, that
strategy by itself is buying through the stretch product, the
amount of institutional interest, the fact that Bitcoin
is entering into geopolitics. You had the general, you had
Treasury Secretary Scott Besson talking about it yesterday or
talking about it in Congress. Like this is happening.
All of this is happening in the bear market year of Bitcoin.
Usually bear markets year, bear market years in Bitcoin are
catastrophic, right? You have things blowing up.
And we did have that depressed phase like I, I'm not like, you
know, for last month and the month before that Opti like
things are getting dark, man. Like things are getting dark.
We were getting bored. I was dooming so black film.
That is typical of bottom ish behavior.
The question is, is are we going to just you know stay at these
price levels? Was 60 K the bottom?
If it is great it it, then the cycle's broken.
The four year cycle theory is broken.
But I think what everybody should be paying attention to is
what Bitcoin does over the summer, what Bitcoin does over
the summer months. That's what everybody should be
paying attention to. If we stay at these price levels
or if we go back down again and it only hit 63 K or it hits 55
K, that's the bottom. I, I, I, I, I would be extreme.
It it, it would for me, it would be inconceivable to imagine that
Bitcoin this time next year is going to be at 77,000.
The only question is the remaining question is did we
bought them out already? And I think we're going to find
out in the next three months. All right, that's my answer.
My answer is I'm going with the Chad Sailor.
It is over already 30% off the bottom.
A lot of financial advice go all in can.
We also talk can we also talk about the fact that like the
figurehead of Bitcoin on Wall Street is just memeing like
crazy? Well, that's, that's, that's
kind of like, I know I'm trolling, but that's kind of the
main point. Like I think what Sailor is
seeing with Stretch I, I think he's literally sitting there,
you know, in his big grand chair.
It's like I'm buying a billion dollars a week.
No amount of your guys is selling is going to drop this
when I'm buying a billion. The ETFs are buying billions.
It's just like he knows, I think he knows he changed the game
here. So I'm going with Chad Saylor.
That's that's my final answer. It's over.
Go all in. No, don't don't go all in.
Hedge your bets. DCA, obviously just continue to
allocate into Bitcoin. But if you know, if I am I, if
I'm answering this question with my friends, I'm literally
telling them that exact thing. I literally did that this week.
I'm like, yo, yeah, it's a good time to get in.
It might go lower, but it might not.
And obviously that's not like I, you know, standard TA, it might
go up, it might go down, but I would be buying right now if I
had money on the sidelines. You've already missed 30% off
the bottom. And if it doesn't go back down
again, you're going to miss a huge run.
If you're waiting for 8600 K, don't do that.
Just start to allocate in Bitcoin.
If it goes down a little lower, so be it.
Buy more. You can get more Bitcoin.
It's on an even better discount. That's what I'm telling my
friends and that's what I'm going to tell everyone else.
I I think it's a great time to get back into the market.
Final answer. That's the final answer.
All right, everybody, well, I hope you guys are all enjoying
Friday. I hope you guys are all
enjoying, you know, these these price levels.
It's it is good. It is good to be, you know,
close back to the 80K region. You know, being AT60K wasn't a
whole lot of fun. So enjoy it just enjoy it guys.
Again, it's all my strategy has always been the same since 2016.
I've dollar cost average the entire time I've bought at every
single top and I've bought every single bottom and I've bought
every single price point in between and that average, that
DCA strategy over time, in my experience, tends to be the best
strategy. If you're trying to trade this
thing, you're not going to do well.
You're going to end up with less Bitcoin than you had before.
I've seen this play out so many times, I can't even count it on
my hand right like it. I've seen it so many and I've
seen O GS talk about this. They're like dude, like they try
to get into all 'cause this is what happens.
And then and then it's Francis Puglio that said this, right?
Everyone wishes they were an OG, so they tried to play the
trading game to accumulate OG levels of Bitcoin, right?
But the vast majority of people get absolutely wrecked in the
process and they end up with less Bitcoin than if they just
stayed humble and stack sats. That's the main message of
today's intro anyways, guys, it's going to be a great show.
We're going to be right back just after the break again.
I hope you guys are enjoying your Friday.
It's going to be a crazy, crazy week next week.
It's going to be the Bitcoin conference.
Opti's going to be holding down the live show while I'm there
and we're going to be we're recording some content.
I'm going to be racing super cars.
That's I'm. I've never done that before, so
that's going to be exciting. Don't crash.
I mean, it's a huge track, yeah, but you know, I'll be back.
You got limited IQ. Opti is such a supportive.
This is this is me being supportive.
And the and the Chad so. This is this is how I show love
to my friends, OK? All the Chad is like like Nico,
it's like like I do something right.
They're like, Nico, I still hate you, but I still.
Hate you because the 39 K prediction.
I still hate you, but I do appreciate that thing you did
that was OK. So I don't know.
Wait wait dude, can we make this is totally off off topic but can
we re Can we reiterate that one comment from Hurley's video?
Do you remember the comment? Let's move on.
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Anyways, I do want to show this video, which I did find quite
interesting. And again, if anyone who's not
in the know, essentially there's been these crazy videos that
have been going about and one of them was this guy betting on the
weather. And what he did was he took a
heat gun and he went to the airport where, like it, it tests
what the temperature is. And he put the heat gun to the
test to the to the to the to the to the temperature meter so that
the temperature would be higher and then he would win that bet.
Also, there was a an even bigger example that led to an arrest.
And I'm going to tie this into Bitcoin in just a second.
That was essentially a special forces member, someone who was
in the military that had the knowledge that the Trump
administration was going to conduct the operation in
Venezuela. That led to the arrest of
Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, and then him letting
and then him being taken to New York and then him facing trial.
Well, one of the military members essentially placed the
bet, He placed a $37,000 bet and he won $400,000.
But again, this is with insider knowledge.
So it's 2IN. It's two independent case
studies where one use insider knowledge of what was going to
happen before and the other basically cheated the system
because he knew where the temperature reader was and he
literally put a heat gun next to it to make sure that the
temperature ended up higher than what everyone was betting to.
And then, of course, this has has led to, you know, the
cultural mainstream where a lot of politicians are, are very
they don't feel really good about the prediction markets,
right? You had Elizabeth Warren trying
to crack down on this. A lot of people don't feel good
about it. Also in the sense that also in
the sense that, like, the polls are easier to manipulate from a
political perspective, right? But the betting markets are
extremely difficult to manipulate because you actually
have to put money on the line, right?
So of course, here's a journalist asking President
Trump, you know, about insider trading on the prediction
markets and all that stuff. And of course, Trump being the
comedian that he is, this was his response.
Or it's not loading. Let me give that another try.
Dude, Ricky, it's. Around the Gore conflict too.
And there have been some tracking where people suspect
that there's insider trading happening on these friction
markets around the Gore. Are you concerned?
Well. You know, the whole world,
unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino and you
look at what's going on all over the world in Europe and every
place they're doing these betting things.
I was never much in favor of it. I don't like it conceptually,
but it is what it is. No, I I think that I'm not happy
with any of that stuff. But they have all these
different sites. They have predictive markets.
It's a crazy world. It's a much different world than
it was. So OK.
You got the P rouse one, dude. That one's funny, so that one's
actually funny. Let let's talk about this first.
Wait, let me, let me, let me play this one.
This one is actually hilarious. This this one's like, dude, he's
still got it. OK, This this one's just funny.
Yeah, hold on, hold on. I'm I'm, I'm fine to get.
Here we go. This one.
Change the camera angle. I'm saying 00.
This one is actually hilarious. Let me oops, sorry guys and and
then we'll chat about it. But this one is just so funny.
This one. This one legitimately cracks me
up. Mr. President, apparently there
was a special forces soldier who was involved in the capture of
Venezuelan President Maduro, who was arrested by federal
employees today on suspicion of insider trading and embedding on
Polly Market. Are you concerned that federal
employees are betting on these prediction markets and
potentially getting rich? Well, I don't know about it, but
was he betting that they would get him or they wouldn't get
him? That's like Pete Rose betting on
his own team. It's a little.
Like Pete Rose. Pete Rose.
He kept him out of the Hall of Fame because he bet on his own
team. Now, if he bet against his team,
that would be no good. But he bet on his own team.
I'll look into it. Yeah.
Oh, it's so funny, bro. All right, Sorry, dude, I'm
going to cut you off. It's Friday.
Let's have a little fun here. Yeah, so.
OK, let's talk about this like the world is turning into a
casino. Jack Molars has spoken about
this. I've said this on the show,
spoken about this. This is a symptom of the
nihilism created by the the theft that is happening in the
Fiat system. Full stop.
If you think this is not related to Bitcoin, you're kidding
yourself. The base layer of society is
broken. It's corrupt.
And what are the downstream effects of that?
The downstream effects of the base layer of society being
broken is that it forces people to gamble.
It forces people to speculate. And then this goes to my, you
know, one of the, one of my, my most famous quotes that I, that
I say on Twitter, you shouldn't have to invest just to maintain
your purchasing power. The fact that we live in that
type of society, first of all, it causes mass wealth
inequality, which leads to political division and political
instability, which is if you want to see why the country's so
polarized right now, it's because people cannot afford
anything. And the reason it causes wealth
inequality is because only the wealthy are the ones that have
the means to save in assets. So we're in this situation,
ladies and gentlemen, right now where the vast majority of the
world, they're living in Fiat despair, they're living in
central banking despair. And by the way, this is a
feature and not a bug. The reason that Bitcoin is so
powerful is because when you start living on a Bitcoin
standard, truly living on a Bitcoin standard, meaning
denominating your net worth in Bitcoin, living your life on a
Bitcoin standard, all you have to do is go about your day,
focus on mining Fiat, putting a percentage of that Fiat into
Bitcoin. And as time progresses, I think
at least it takes a decade, you will get progressively richer
over time and the things around you will get less expensive over
time. So that house that you wanted,
that car that you wanted, it's not to say that you're going to
be able to afford it, but it's going to get cheaper and cheaper
and cheaper and cheaper versus the rat reel, the the rat wheel
that we live in today where you work and you work and you work
and you work. And that piece of real estate or
the rent just keeps getting higher and higher and higher and
higher. And this is a symptom of broken
money. So if you want to explain the
nihilism, the moral decay in society today, a lot of it comes
down to broken money. And this is one of the things
that Bitcoin fixes full stop, right?
So anyhow, guys, it's going to be a great show.
We're going to be right back in just a little bit.
We still have a couple things to talk about and we'll be right
back, ladies and gentlemen. Also, I do want to give a shout
out of course, to our partner Leaden guys, Bitcoin
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If there is downward cell pressure, you're going to have
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it's a very, very powerful tool. And I see more and more people
and businesses doing this again to tap into the the wealth of
their Bitcoin without having to sell it.
So go to use the link below and check out their new rates
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Anyways, what I do want to talk about today, let me pull this
up. Forgive me Opti hold it down for
a second while I look for this. I don't know what you're talking
about. OK here.
Actually, I do want to say something, guys.
Everyone hit the pole. I I want to see what everyone's
thinking right now and on that pole all.
Right, everybody. So first hit the pole.
Second, this is what I want to talk about.
Guys. This is a big deal.
Why can't play this video for copyright reasons, but we had
our boy Sam Callahan go on the Schwab network and they're in
they're they're they're talking to him about Bitcoin.
Why are they talking to him about Bitcoin?
You want to know why? Because Schwab is about to
release Bitcoin trading. So this is this serves 2
functions, right? Like one of the big narratives
that came out was that there's a quantum threat to Bitcoin.
I think that's calmed down now. Adam Back went out and he again,
it's crazy to to, to, it's crazy for me to see so many people
arguing with Adam Back, even though Adam Back is a
cryptographer and he's mentioned in the in the Bitcoin white
paper and he's literally a computer scientist.
And it's like you think you have more knowledge than Adam Back
when it relates to this topic. I find it hilarious.
And it's not to say that quantum doesn't pose a threat to
Bitcoin. I just think that it's too soon
like we have much bigger problems.
I don't think quantum is going to pose a threat to Bitcoin for
at least another decade. But a reason they they brought
up Sam Callahan, which is very well respected person in the in
the Bitcoin community, very knowledgeable.
I think he's with Oranja BTC shout out guy.
They wanted to put to rest the fears to the Schwab audience,
which again, are going to be buying Bitcoin on the Schwab
platform that, hey, you know, Quantum isn't a threat to
Bitcoin, at least for the foreseeable future.
And again, this is this is what winning looks like, ladies and
gentlemen, like this is. So it's so easy to convince
someone who lives in, you know, the developing world where they
have a relatively stable, unstable Fiat currency or their
currency is prone to political censorship.
But you know, in the West, you're not really looking at
Bitcoin as a as a payments tool. You're really looking at Bitcoin
as as an investment vehicle. So if you're looking at Bitcoin
from investment vehicle and you keep seeing headlines from
legacy media talking about Bitcoins under threat for
quantum reasons, you know, what better to do than to bring
someone from the Bitcoin community to go on there?
You know, Sam in a suit with a nice collared shirt to talk
about the fact that, hey, listen, quantum is not a threat,
right? And this is this is what winning
looks like, guys. Because ultimately we saw two
testimonies yesterday. We saw one by an Admiral talking
about how Bitcoin is necessary for power projection.
It's a matter of national security. the US military is
running a node. And on the other hand, you have
Treasury Secretary Scott Besson making the case that Bitcoin is
going to be integral in payments.
But at the same time, those people aren't Bitcoiners like
you. I, I'm pretty sure Scott Besson
holds some Bitcoin. I don't know if that Admiral
holds some Bitcoin, but they're not Bitcoiners.
Sam Callan has a bitcoiner through and through, right?
This is someone from our, our neck of the woods.
This is someone from our industry, right?
So this is so powerful. It's like when Anthony Pompliano
or Natalie Bernal go on legacy media.
Lynn Alden has been making some appearances on legacy media too
as well. All those people are Bitcoiners.
They're bitcoiners hard core through and through.
They believe it. They've read everything there is
to no everything there is to read about Bitcoin.
And again, now they're having those appearances on those
channels to talk to people outside are effing echo chamber
because this is what you guys have to understand.
We live in an echo chamber as a community and unless we want to
get our message out there, we have to break the echo chamber.
This is why Michael Saylor went on Jordan Peterson pod, Jordan
Peterson's podcast. And I remember like one of the
questions that Jordan Peterson asked Michael Saylor was like,
so like, you know, like, like bitcoins going to take over and
you're saying all these things and whatever.
And Michael, Michael Saylor just said it bluntly.
He's like, yeah, This is why I'm here, right?
Michael Saylor went on the Jordan Peterson podcast because,
again, he's trying to speak to people outside of our bubble.
And that is how you move the Overton window.
That is how the bubble gets bigger.
I mean, I think bubble's a bad word, that that's how the circle
gets bigger. That's how the adopters gets
bigger, right? Now, where you guys, you guys
wanna, you guys have to understand where we are in the
adoption curve, right? You guys know the the the famous
S curve, the technological adoption curve there's the
innovator phase, which they are the O GS, the early adopters.
Then there's the early adopters. Right now we're crossing the
chasm to the early majority right.
Make no mistake, we're in the early innings of the early
majority phase. So when Sam or Saylor or any of
these true bitcoiners go on non Bitcoin related media, it it
widens the pool, it widens the community, it widens the people
that are willing to adopt Bitcoin and they're going to
adopt Bitcoin in however way they feel comfortable.
And I think this was one of the hardest learning lessons for us
Bitcoiners, at least because we were looking at it from a
perspective of like, listen, guys, everyone's going to learn
about Bitcoin in my echo chamber, Opti's my Quan and
Nico's my Creamer. That's hilarious.
You're against Bitcoin. You're against freedom.
Wait. Wait, wait, wait, wait.
Yeah, let's see. So like, what you guys have to
understand is like, you have to meet people where they are.
And this was part of Sailor's genius is that he developed
products that were going to tap into different pools of capital.
And the original utopian vision of Bitcoiners was, hey, man, as
soon as people find out that Bitcoin is better money, they're
going to go and buy a hardware wallet and they're going to go
and take self custody. And everyone's going to take
self custody, and it's all going to be peer-to-peer transactions.
Yeah, Oh my God, that's what's going to happen.
Yeah, that voice is perfect. That was the original thesis,
right? That's what we all believe.
But that's not reality. That's not reality at all.
The reality is that if you're a fixed income investor, you're
interested in fixed income products.
This is why stretches become so popular.
If you are a traditional investor and you're not tech
savvy and Schwab is announcing Bitcoin trading and you feel
comfortable and Schwab is saying, hey, if you believe that
Bitcoin's gonna have a 25% CAGR moving into the future, we
recommend at least a 10 to 20% allocation.
Guess what? You're probably going to buy
your Bitcoin on Schwab. If you're a Morgan Stanley
client and you've been a Morgan Stanley your client your, your
entire life. Are you going to listen to some
random dudes on the Internet wearing hoodies or are you going
to listen to the very well done traditional finance suits?
Professional, articulate, saying hey, listen.
This is probably a good allocation, and they're going to
get exposure to Bitcoin through the ETF and they're going to get
exposure to Bitcoin through the Schwab platform.
Now, is that ideal? Of course not.
We wanted the utopian vision of, Oh my God, everyone's going to
find out about Bitcoin. Everyone's going to take self
custody. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, we're going
to win. That's what everybody wanted.
But that's not the reality. I think what Bitcoin Bitcoiners
fundamentally underestimated was human nature.
Human nature. You have to meet people where
they are and this is going to be a multi generational transition.
My kids are going to grow up Bitcoin native.
They were born into a world where Bitcoin existed, where
Bitcoin exists. They were born into a world
where Internet existed. They were born into a world
where the idea of self custody existed.
It's very difficult to convince someone who's used to dealing
with the traditional system, to convince someone to do a pivot,
to do the radical thing of taking self custody of this
bearer asset. If you make a mistake, there's
no 1800 number to call. That's a very radical idea,
right? That's not to say that people
haven't done it. That's not to say that's not,
that's not to say that's not what we're going to continue
advocating for. It's just the reality is that
the majority of people at this moment in time, I think it will
change over time. You have to meet them where they
are. That's a reality.
That's why sailor's product is so successful.
That's why sailor's products that's happened to different
pools of capital have been so successful, right?
And that's why it literally feels like literally running up
a hill or like what? What's that famous Greek story?
Sisyphus. Where like basically he's like
pushing up a rock and then the rock just keeps falling down.
Like over time, our pool of people that want to take self
custody will continue to grow and we will continue to advocate
for it on simply Bitcoin. You guys know the deal.
If it's not your keys, it's not your cheese.
If it's not your keys, it's not your Bitcoin.
That we, we've remained consistent in that messaging the
six years that we've done this. But the reality is that some
people are just not there yet. Ideally we do get to that
utopian vision of the world, but we're not there yet.
And the last example that I'll give before I move on to the
culture segment, the wrap up today show is in the 80s and 90s
there was a theory that, and I need a prop for this.
And the theory, the the 80s and 90s, there is a theory that
everybody in their home was going to have a personal
computer. What the vision of that theory
was, was that everyone was going to have a keyboard and a
monitor. And the monitors were so big
back then. And that was what everyone was
going to have. And that's how everyone was
going to communicate. Like that's how you're going to
access the Internet. Here's the thing.
That theory played out, that that theory came to be true, but
the original idea of that theory was completely wrong.
Yes, people have laptops. Yes, people have screens, but
not everybody has a laptop, and not everyone has a screen, but
everyone has a computer. And you know what that computer
is? It's your smartphone.
That's a computer. That's how everybody, that's how
the majority of the world interacts with the Internet.
That's how the majority of the world interacts with the World
Wide Web. It's the handheld device, right?
That you'd literally just use your fingers to use it.
Isn't this keyboard and mouse and whatever?
And the reason I'm bringing up that example is it's the perfect
analogy to where we are. I don't think most people are
comfortable with taking self custody.
I, I just don't, I don't think most people are, are, are there
yet. I think as time progresses and
you have innovations like the bit key that make it incredibly
easy to take self custody, I think you're going to have more
and more people feeling comfortable with that idea.
But I think it's going to be, as I said, a multi generational
thing. Anyways, guys, we're going to be
right back in just a bit. We have the culture segment.
Let's check it out. I want to give a shout out to
our partner Hive Digital Technologies.
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15% off anything on the store. Oh man, did the chest, the chest
killing me today. You guys are on fire today, bro,
I I'm really it's Friday, dude. I'm just going to shoot the
shit. Just you know, I really want to
talk about this poll here. Well, I, I we don't like for the
rumble guys. You guys yell at me.
Let's get it. Maybe we can get polls on
Rumble, but we don't have polls on Rumble.
They're like, we always ignore you.
So we're doing the YouTube poll and I'm ending it now.
Oh, where'd it go? What's going on?
I just lost it. I see it is crypto winter over.
Yeah. What?
What are the results at last?
So 200, wow, a lot of votes. So 212 votes say yes, crypto
winter is over and 40 and 45% say no.
I'm gonna end the poll right there.
So the majority that's not good. Yeah, I mean, but it is, but it
is our content. It is 5050 but that, but it is
close to 5050. It wasn't like the node the node
poll. That we got wrecked bro, shame
on you. Why don't Why don't you watch a?
Shame on you guys. We ran this poll and it was like
80% said I don't run a node and then 20% ran a node like and you
guys are tuned into simply Bitcoin.
You should be running a node or you don't.
You literally don't have a vote if you don't run a node.
Guys like, well, you know what I'm going to take away from this
poll, Nico, is I get them so bullish that they also agreed
the crypto winter is over. So I don't think this is a good
sample size of what the broader market thinks.
So I'm going to trade with you guys on this one.
I'm going with it is over as well.
But the node one is brutal. Guys, that one, we got to up
those numbers up. Yeah, we got to up those
numbers. And and I, I really wanted to
do, someone actually brought it up yesterday and I wanted to do
it, but I felt like it, it's in that kind of weird Gray area of
like almost doxing. So I didn't want to do it.
But I did see a very good click clip of Checkmatey and I, I
think I brought it up on the show and it was the question
that someone sent in the chats like you should do a poll of how
many people self custody their Bitcoin and I but that's yeah,
that's a little Gray area. I I that's, that felt like
doxing. So I didn't do it.
But that, that is an interesting question 'cause I did see, I
think, I think I brought it up. Check Matey did a pretty good
clip. I think it was on Natalie
Burnell and he basically said something on the lines of, look,
if we're probably being realistic, it's probably around
like 100,000 people that actually self custody.
And as much as we may not like it, the ETFs definitely made it
easier for people to get exposure to Bitcoin because
people don't want to self custody their Bitcoin.
And you know, that's, that's some uncomfortable truths here
that we, we really don't like as Bitcoiners, but that's I, I
think that's true. Now running a note guys, it's
not that difficult. It's really not that difficult.
If you watch this show you you need to at some point run a node
either on a computer stand alone, whatever.
Obviously we, we have said in the past, you know, you got to
get, you got to buy Bitcoin and then then you got to get into
self custody and then finally you need to run a node and once
you do that, you're a real bitcoiner.
You're sovereign. You're sovereign.
Anyways, guys, to wrap up today's show, I do want to give
a shout out to our sponsor, the Bitcoin Conference.
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wonderful weekend. Opti will be back next week.
Holding it down and I'll be back the week after.
Once I get back from Vegas, I'll be back on the Friday show next
week. Enjoy your family, eat some good
food, get some sun, go touch some grass, enjoy the weekend,
unplug and we'll be back on Monday.
All right, take care everybody, have a great weekend.
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