You think losing 47% hurts? In 2011 Bitcoin crashed 94%.
Everyone said it was dead. In 2013 it crashed 87%.
Mount Gox took everybody's money and everyone said it was dead.
In 2018 it dropped 84%. The SEC said it was coming for
blood. Everybody said it was dead.
In 2022, Luna blew up, FTX blew up, it dropped 77% and everybody
thought it was dead. Every single time the Perma
bears celebrated and every single time they were wrong
emotions. This is beyond Bitcoin.
Let me tell you about Crash 477. According to the Bitcoin
Obituaries website, and yes this is a real website, Bitcoin has
been declared dead 477 times since 2010. 477 separate
articles, op eds and TV segments formally announcing that Bitcoin
was over, dead, gone, never coming back. 477 times.
The skeptics were confident enough to write the obituary 477
times. They were wrong.
And right now we're sitting at 47% off the all time high of
126,000 and the cycle bears are back at their desks typing
furiously. So let me give you some
historical context because the history here is genuinely
interesting. I mean, if you're interested in
this kind of thing, first we're going to walk through the
pattern, why every Bitcoin crash looks identical to the people
living through it, and why the ending is always the same.
Second, we're going through every major crash 1 by 1, 2011,
2013, 2018, 2022. What caused each one, what
people said and what actually happened?
Like a phoenix rising from the ashes.
And 3rd, where we are right now. By every historical metric,
we're sitting exactly where the prior 4 cycles all agreed on.
And if you know what happened to the people who bought at this
point in those cycles, this episode might change how you
think about this dip. And if I knew, well, I probably
wouldn't be making these episodes now would I?
You ready? Let's go.
Every Bitcoin crash follows the same script.
Every single one. Step one Bitcoin runs up
parabolic. The charts look vertical.
Mainstream media writes about it.
First time buyers pile in. Uber drivers are suddenly very
talkative about it. Step 2.
Something breaks. A hack, A regulatory
announcement, A macro shock, an orgy in a penthouse.
This causes a massive collapse. The specific trigger changes
every cycle. The pattern doesn't.
Step three. Bitcoin drops fast and ugly. 50
sixty, 7080%. The same people calling for 500K
Bitcoin are now calling for zero.
Step 4, The obituaries. Forbes runs the piece.
Bloomberg runs the piece. Your uncle texts you.
The regulators Get serious. Peter Schiff goes on CNBC and
says he was right all along. Step 5.
Bitcoin still doesn't care. The network keeps running.
Blocks keep getting mined, developers keep building.
Well, probably mostly in clawed at this point.
And the wallets that were quietly accumulating at the
bottom, Those people come out generationally wealthy.
Now the media, they live in step four.
They are professionally incentivized to write about Step
4, which is the obituaries, because panic drives clicks.
But what they never cover and what doesn't fit in their
narrative is step five. Let me show you Step 5.
Five times in a row in June 2011, Bitcoin had just run from
under a dollar to 3150, its first big parabolic run.
The Internet was starting to take notice.
Then someone hacked Mount Gox, the exchange handling 70% of all
the Bitcoin trades at the time, and dumped hundreds of thousands
of coins. Price flash crashed to a penny,
literally 1 cent, which, by the way, doesn't exist anymore.
It recovered to $2.00. And then it kept falling.
By November 2011, Bitcoin was at $2.01, down 94% from its peak.
The Guardian called it a failed experiment.
Forbes said it was imploding. The New York Times could decide
whether they wanted to write an obituary or a retrospective, but
they did both. So what happened next?
Bitcoin ran from $2.00 to $11163 by November 2013.
That's a 57,000% recovery from the bottom.
And if you held through that 94% down, you made 570 times your
money on the other side, 570 times.
Does that sound familiar? Now the 2013 crash.
And here's where it gets wild, because 2013 had two crashes.
First, Bitcoin hit $265 in April of 2013.
Mount Gox couldn't handle the volume ADDOS attack.
And believe me, I had to look that up.
Took the exchange down and they suspended trading.
Bitcoin fell to $54, down 79%, but then it recovered.
It ran all the way back up to $11163 by November 2013.
Then China banned financial institutions from handling
Bitcoin, and it came out that Mount Gox had been quietly
insolvent for years. They had 850,000 Bitcoin that
had been stolen and undetected from 2011 to 2013.
When they finally filed for bankruptcy in February of 2014,
the headline was everywhere. Take a look.
What was once one of the world's biggest Bitcoin exchanges, Mount
Gox, has filed for bankruptcy protection in Japan.
The unregulated exchange admitted to losing 850,000
bitcoins worth more than $450 million due to some weakness in
the system, said chief executive Mark Carpellis. 750,000 of those
lost bitcoins belong to customers, while 100,000 were
the companies. The announcement of the hacking
comes after a tumultuous few weeks from Mountain Gox, which
has remained silent after halting trades of the digital
currency. Carpalis bowed an apology during
a news conference at the Tokyo District Court, but said the
overall Bitcoin industry is healthy and will keep growing.
The Times reports that Bitcoin prices on the Coin Dex Index
we're down Friday morning. Mark Carpalis, the CEO of Mount
Gox, which was the biggest Bitcoin exchange in the world at
the time, told the world that he lost 850,000 Bitcoin.
Bitcoin fell from $11163 to $152 like that, down 87%.
The longest Bitcoin bear market in history. 48 months.
Bitcoin fell from $11163 to $152, down 87%.
That was the longest Bitcoin bear market in history.
It was 48 months. That was a cold winter.
What happened next? Bitcoin hit $20,000 in December
of 2017 from $152. That's a 13,000% recovery,
13,000% Now real quick, because we're talking about history
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brought most people into Bitcoin, myself included.
Everyone has a story from this cycle.
Bitcoin ran from $900 in January to $20,000 by December.
That's a 2100% increase in one calendar year.
Icos were raising hundreds of millions of dollars for
technical shit. Your neighbor was a crypto
expert and CNBC was doing daily segments.
Then 2018 happened. The SEC announced it was coming
for Icos. Exchange hacks happened in
north-south Korea and Japan, and the froth drained out fast.
Bitcoin fell from $20,000 to $3200 over the course of the
year, down 84%. South Korea's intelligence
agency says it has evidence showing North Korea was behind 2
hack attacks on the country's cryptocurrency exchanges earlier
this year. The National Intelligence
Service says North Korea is suspected of stealing the
personal information of some 30,000 people registered with
Bitsum in June and robbing virtual money from Coinys in
September. It says malicious code used by
the North Korean group behind the 2000, 1014 Sony Pictures
hack was discovered in both cases.
Respective economist Nouriel Roubini testified before the
United States Senate that Bitcoin was the mother of all
bubbles. Forbes.
Bloomberg. The same headlines, the same
certainty, the same track record of being wrong.
What happened next? Three years later, Bitcoin hit
$69,000 from 3200. That's a 2000% recovery. 2022.
This one hurts because the causes were institutional.
In May, Terra Luna USD lost its peg.
The whole algorithmic stable coin system collapsed in 72
hours, 45 billion in value gone. Luna went from $119 to
effectively 0. Following a day in which
teetering stable coin Terra USD bounced around $0.90, it resumed
its freefall overnight to approach $0.30, before
recovering partly to $0.43 this morning and $0.64 this
afternoon. However, this performance could
be considered downright bullish when compared to Luna, the token
designed to maintain its $1.00 peg, which has now fallen below
$2.00. Luna is down a staggering 98% in
the past five days, which has seen its market capitalization
lose $25 billion this week. A lot of people got wiped out in
this time. The contagion spread like a
virus. 3 Arrows Capital went bankrupt, then Celsius, then
Voyager, and then in November, FTX, the second largest crypto
exchange in the world, imploded. Sam Bankman Freed had been
secretly using customer funds for trading $8 billion missing.
So we got arrested. What do we know about how Sam
Bankman Freed effed up in his words?
Yeah, he did tell investors that and he would be extremely
grateful. He asked investors if they would
step in and help fill this hole. It's an $8 billion hole in FT XS
balance sheet that is bigger than the size of Robin Hood's
entire market value. And remember, last year alone,
they raised $2 billion in six months from investors from a
Sequoia who had marked down the value of of its entire stake and
had doubled down on its bet. Skybridge was in many levels of
series rounds here. The Paul Tudor Jones family was
in other rounds as well. There's investors really around
the globe that were exposed to this.
And so listen, going back to investors is very difficult.
He'll need about $4 billion, according to our reporting.
And whether he can get that or not, he would likely have to
file for bankruptcy protection if he can't get that money.
There's a lot of question about the ramifications here for more
FTX in the industry at large. I think Jim Bianco put it well
in a call we had yesterday that there's a real risk here that
dozens of firms will fail on the back of this, given that they
had their accounts with FTX. So you have consumers both on
the institutional side, potential miners, brokerages
that may not be able to get their money back, as well as
customers who have lost billions of dollars here.
So unless the industry came in and bailed them out, again,
remember, This is why JP Morgan thinks that there's going to be
more risk here at play and more margin calls.
There's a real risk here that there is nobody to save the day
for FTX, meaning others will feel pressure from this.
Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $15,000, down 77%.
This time the obituaries had actual ammunition, not just
Bitcoin is volatile. Actual fraud, actual criminal
charges, actual victims. The Bitcoin is dead count hit
new records. What happened next After that,
though, 16 months later, driven by the first spot Bitcoin ETF
approvals, Bitcoin broke $69,000 and kept going.
It hit $109,000 in early 2025, from $15,000 to $109,000.
That's a 604% recovery in 16 months.
Now let's pause here for a second, because if you're new to
Bitcoin and this crash is freaking you out, I want you to
hear this part. Every single crash that I just
described, the people who got hurt the worst were the ones who
left their Bitcoin on an exchange that they didn't
control. Mount G, Ox, FTX, Voyager,
etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. All of them were exchange
failures, not Bitcoin failing exchanges failing.
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There's no pitch, there's no pressure, just real people
trying to help you out. They've been through this
before. That's the bitcoinway.com/beyond
Bitcoin. Here's what the bears keep
saying this cycle, the four year cycle is broken.
Institutional money changes the dynamics.
It's too correlated to risk assets now.
What's going on right now? Do you feel that this four year
cycle is? Still, still resonant.
I think we still have a four year cycle, but it's starting to
become somewhat disjointed and it's reflective of the sheer
amount of institutional flow that we've seen come in.
So what that's done is it's created a natural liquidity pool
and, and, and a base to stop, you know, what would have been
traditional retail flow bringing Bitcoin down.
And so, you know, yes, price has been volatile, but it's nowhere
near as volatile as it was. OK, here's what hasn't changed.
A 21 million hard cap. Nobody's printing more.
No FED can change that. No tariff touches it.
It's fixed. It's absolute.
It's forever. The network is stronger than any
previous cycle. More hash rate, more nodes, more
wallets, more developers. Every bear market burns the weak
projects and leaves bitcoins infrastructure cleaner.
Institutional adoption is higher than any previous cycle.
BlackRock is running a spot ETF. Fidelity Strategy holds 3.4% of
all the Bitcoin that will ever exist.
This infrastructure didn't exist at any previous bottom.
The floor is higher. Here's Sailor this month.
The critics are saying his thesis is breaking, but listen
to what he says. Well, most people don't
understand how the Internet works, but they obviously use it
every day. They don't understand how their
iPhone is put together, but they use it.
And it is like that video you mentioned of you holding the
iPhone saying everybody's going to want this.
And Stretch seems to be that product that addresses the main
market need of not wanting volatility but wanting a stable
cash dividend. You have a 2 plus year runway
for it with cash. MSTR is still trading at a
premium. You guys still are buying
Bitcoin, but yet every time I see you on these news programs,
it seems like they're expecting Bitcoin to go to zero.
And you've gone from hero to Oh my gosh, what's happening?
Bitcoins dying. Do you ever feel like they're
rooting for you to fail? And how do you deal with like
that swing in in sentiment? The struggle is real.
The struggle is real, but you know, to be more serious, when
Bitcoin is hitting all times high, all time highs, there's a
sense of exuberance and, and all of the media terms positive and
it's glowing and people are doing high fives.
And when it draws down, there's a gloominess to it.
And then and then people over forecast to the negative.
I think that that it's the volatility that drives the
engagement and the interest and the speculation and, and there's
something to talk about and they're talking about us.
You know, what they're not talking about is they're not
talking about, you know, real estate on the Upper East Side of
Manhattan. They're not talking about timber
rights. They're not, you know, like
people people they, they talk about all these non volatile
assets. Well, non volatile assets means
there's no news. And if there's no news, there's
no interest. He's been through this before,
multiple times, and every single time the thesis was called
broken, so he bought more. That's not stubbornness, that's
a conviction built on 16 years of the same pattern.
Here's a clip of Sailor back in 2012 clearly explaining the
issue. There's not an 8 year old on the
planet that doesn't want an iPhone 5, right?
Who wants to wait 42 seconds to watch something download instead
of 2 seconds? Nobody, right?
You don't have to be a genius to run Apple Computer.
You just have to, every year, make the product a bit lighter,
a bit more elegant, make it a better radio, make it a better
battery. And then I sat with, you know,
one of the 10 richest guys in the world for dinner three
nights ago, five nights ago, and we had dinner for four hours and
he didn't have to talk, you know, I didn't have to talking
and at once. And he's much more successful
than I am. I understand that, by the way.
As I said, it's like it's you don't sometimes you got to do
other things than just have opinions to make money, right?
There's a lot of execution involved the rest, but I have
opinions. So so he said to me, you know,
Apple computer, can these guys hold their prices?
You know, aren't you know, aren't they going to follow the
model of the PC industry? Aren't their prices are going to
taper down their 40% margin become 30 and 35 and 20.
And it's another example. People just know enough to hurt
themselves, right. If you go to France and this is
the benefit of seeing enough you go to France you see Bernardo no
runs a company LVMH they're selling handbags for 4000
dollars 3000 dollars, $2500 each.
This is a device that women view as fashion and it's 10,000 years
old and for 10,000 years no, the prices are not lower after
10,000 years if you actually. Things that are genuinely
valuable don't follow skeptics, predictions, great brands, hard
assets, things with real properties that the market keeps
rediscovering. Bitcoin's been around for 16
years now, priced in any currency.
It's not lower than when it started.
It has died 477 times. The price is up roughly 10
million percent from its first transaction.
That's not luck. That's the pattern.
So here are the recovery timelines.
Crash by crash 2011. Crash 20 months to the new all
time high 2013. Crash 48 months to the new all
time high. That's the longest 2018.
Crash 36 months to the new all time high 2022.
Crash 16 months to the new all time high.
The fastest yet. The recoveries are getting
faster, not slower. And every cycle the
institutional infrastructure gets deeper, the floor gets
higher, the recovery accelerates.
As I mentioned in my previous video, here's the fear and greed
index right now. We hit extreme fear single
digits earlier this cycle. That is where every prior
recovery started. Every Bitcoin cycle has its
moment, a point where, looking back, it was obvious where the
fear was maximum. The headlines were screaming,
and the person who didn't panic, or better, the person who
bought, quietly changed the financial trajectory of their
family. 2011 buyers made 570 X 2015 buyers made 130 X 2018
buyers made 20 X 2022 buyers. They made 7X.
We are here sitting at 47% off the $126,000 high.
The obituary writers are actively firing up their chatty
PTS, The four year cycle bears are loud running their AI agents
and the Fear and Greed Index is reading extreme fear.
But it's all a hallucination. Someone is about to be a 2026
buyer. Is it you?
Someone is going to tell their kids about this moment.
You see where this is going right before we close, If you
want to connect with people who have actually lived through
every one of these crashes and kept holding, we're on the club
orange.org app, formerly known as the Orange Pill app, Same
community, new name. You can find me there.
I'm at Oceans OSHINS, I'm on the app, Just my name.
I read every message. So if this crash has got you a
little rattled and if you want to hear from some people who are
buying at $2.00 or $152 or $3200 or $15,000.
Most people are right there. Club orange.org.
My handle is Oceans. Again at oceans.
So here's where we are right now.
Bitcoin is down 47% from the all time high.
That puts this draw down exactly in the middle of every previous
crash. Smaller than 2011, smaller than
2013, comparable to 2022. The obituary account is at 477.
This crash will probably add a few more.
The network is still running. Blocks are still being mined.
Sailor is still buying. Institutional infrastructure has
never been deeper. This is crash 477, and I'm sure
it won't be the last. So the question was never if
Bitcoin recovers. Every single piece of historical
evidence says it does. The question is whether you're
positioned for it when it does. 477 times someone was confident
enough to write that Bitcoin was dead, and 477 times they were
wrong. Not because they were stupid,
Well, maybe, but because they were looking at the short term.
They were looking at the chart, at the thing that just broke.
They were looking at the fear, not the fundamentals.
Bitcoin doesn't care about the short term.
It's a fixed supply monetary network built to outlast every
crash, every government, every central bank, and every economic
cycle. The people who understood that
clearly enough to hold or buy when the obituaries were being
written, those people are fine. But the people writing the
obituaries, they'll be writing in the next one too, I'm sure.
So make sure you get out there and you study Bitcoin.
Anyway, thank you so much for watching this video.
If you like what you see and you want to see more, make sure you
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If you like it, you don't like it, whatever you want.
If you want to reach out to me directly, I'm also on X at Run
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I used to run and dance and I like Bitcoin.
Anyway, until next time.