1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:05,760 You think losing 47% hurts? In 2011 Bitcoin crashed 94%. 2 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:11,160 Everyone said it was dead. In 2013 it crashed 87%. 3 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:14,360 Mount Gox took everybody's money and everyone said it was dead. 4 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:19,600 In 2018 it dropped 84%. The SEC said it was coming for 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:21,800 blood. Everybody said it was dead. 6 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:27,240 In 2022, Luna blew up, FTX blew up, it dropped 77% and everybody 7 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:29,320 thought it was dead. Every single time the Perma 8 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:32,560 bears celebrated and every single time they were wrong 9 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:34,440 emotions. This is beyond Bitcoin. 10 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:43,720 Let me tell you about Crash 477. According to the Bitcoin 11 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,760 Obituaries website, and yes this is a real website, Bitcoin has 12 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:54,520 been declared dead 477 times since 2010. 477 separate 13 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:58,280 articles, op eds and TV segments formally announcing that Bitcoin 14 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:03,760 was over, dead, gone, never coming back. 477 times. 15 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:08,720 The skeptics were confident enough to write the obituary 477 16 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:10,080 times. They were wrong. 17 00:01:10,320 --> 00:01:13,360 And right now we're sitting at 47% off the all time high of 18 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:17,360 126,000 and the cycle bears are back at their desks typing 19 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:19,000 furiously. So let me give you some 20 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,560 historical context because the history here is genuinely 21 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:24,920 interesting. I mean, if you're interested in 22 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,920 this kind of thing, first we're going to walk through the 23 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,160 pattern, why every Bitcoin crash looks identical to the people 24 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:33,800 living through it, and why the ending is always the same. 25 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,760 Second, we're going through every major crash 1 by 1, 2011, 26 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:42,280 2013, 2018, 2022. What caused each one, what 27 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:44,480 people said and what actually happened? 28 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:46,640 Like a phoenix rising from the ashes. 29 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:49,960 And 3rd, where we are right now. By every historical metric, 30 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,880 we're sitting exactly where the prior 4 cycles all agreed on. 31 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,040 And if you know what happened to the people who bought at this 32 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:58,880 point in those cycles, this episode might change how you 33 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:02,400 think about this dip. And if I knew, well, I probably 34 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,040 wouldn't be making these episodes now would I? 35 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:05,520 You ready? Let's go. 36 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,840 Every Bitcoin crash follows the same script. 37 00:02:09,039 --> 00:02:11,280 Every single one. Step one Bitcoin runs up 38 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,560 parabolic. The charts look vertical. 39 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:15,240 Mainstream media writes about it. 40 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,440 First time buyers pile in. Uber drivers are suddenly very 41 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:19,880 talkative about it. Step 2. 42 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,240 Something breaks. A hack, A regulatory 43 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,160 announcement, A macro shock, an orgy in a penthouse. 44 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,320 This causes a massive collapse. The specific trigger changes 45 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,280 every cycle. The pattern doesn't. 46 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,440 Step three. Bitcoin drops fast and ugly. 50 47 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,680 sixty, 7080%. The same people calling for 500K 48 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,400 Bitcoin are now calling for zero. 49 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,560 Step 4, The obituaries. Forbes runs the piece. 50 00:02:43,640 --> 00:02:46,200 Bloomberg runs the piece. Your uncle texts you. 51 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,800 The regulators Get serious. Peter Schiff goes on CNBC and 52 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,000 says he was right all along. Step 5. 53 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,160 Bitcoin still doesn't care. The network keeps running. 54 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:58,520 Blocks keep getting mined, developers keep building. 55 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:00,640 Well, probably mostly in clawed at this point. 56 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:02,640 And the wallets that were quietly accumulating at the 57 00:03:02,640 --> 00:03:06,040 bottom, Those people come out generationally wealthy. 58 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:07,920 Now the media, they live in step four. 59 00:03:07,920 --> 00:03:10,400 They are professionally incentivized to write about Step 60 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:13,120 4, which is the obituaries, because panic drives clicks. 61 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:15,160 But what they never cover and what doesn't fit in their 62 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:17,880 narrative is step five. Let me show you Step 5. 63 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:21,360 Five times in a row in June 2011, Bitcoin had just run from 64 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:25,840 under a dollar to 3150, its first big parabolic run. 65 00:03:25,920 --> 00:03:27,920 The Internet was starting to take notice. 66 00:03:27,920 --> 00:03:32,360 Then someone hacked Mount Gox, the exchange handling 70% of all 67 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,520 the Bitcoin trades at the time, and dumped hundreds of thousands 68 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,240 of coins. Price flash crashed to a penny, 69 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:42,000 literally 1 cent, which, by the way, doesn't exist anymore. 70 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,920 It recovered to $2.00. And then it kept falling. 71 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:50,600 By November 2011, Bitcoin was at $2.01, down 94% from its peak. 72 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:52,960 The Guardian called it a failed experiment. 73 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,880 Forbes said it was imploding. The New York Times could decide 74 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,840 whether they wanted to write an obituary or a retrospective, but 75 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:01,640 they did both. So what happened next? 76 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:07,600 Bitcoin ran from $2.00 to $11163 by November 2013. 77 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:11,200 That's a 57,000% recovery from the bottom. 78 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:16,320 And if you held through that 94% down, you made 570 times your 79 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:20,040 money on the other side, 570 times. 80 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,280 Does that sound familiar? Now the 2013 crash. 81 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:27,360 And here's where it gets wild, because 2013 had two crashes. 82 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:31,520 First, Bitcoin hit $265 in April of 2013. 83 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:35,560 Mount Gox couldn't handle the volume ADDOS attack. 84 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:36,880 And believe me, I had to look that up. 85 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,360 Took the exchange down and they suspended trading. 86 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:45,280 Bitcoin fell to $54, down 79%, but then it recovered. 87 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:50,560 It ran all the way back up to $11163 by November 2013. 88 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,600 Then China banned financial institutions from handling 89 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:56,720 Bitcoin, and it came out that Mount Gox had been quietly 90 00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:00,800 insolvent for years. They had 850,000 Bitcoin that 91 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:05,040 had been stolen and undetected from 2011 to 2013. 92 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,520 When they finally filed for bankruptcy in February of 2014, 93 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,960 the headline was everywhere. Take a look. 94 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:14,480 What was once one of the world's biggest Bitcoin exchanges, Mount 95 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,360 Gox, has filed for bankruptcy protection in Japan. 96 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,080 The unregulated exchange admitted to losing 850,000 97 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:25,760 bitcoins worth more than $450 million due to some weakness in 98 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:30,080 the system, said chief executive Mark Carpellis. 750,000 of those 99 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,400 lost bitcoins belong to customers, while 100,000 were 100 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:35,480 the companies. The announcement of the hacking 101 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,480 comes after a tumultuous few weeks from Mountain Gox, which 102 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,040 has remained silent after halting trades of the digital 103 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,000 currency. Carpalis bowed an apology during 104 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,720 a news conference at the Tokyo District Court, but said the 105 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,720 overall Bitcoin industry is healthy and will keep growing. 106 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,920 The Times reports that Bitcoin prices on the Coin Dex Index 107 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,360 we're down Friday morning. Mark Carpalis, the CEO of Mount 108 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,120 Gox, which was the biggest Bitcoin exchange in the world at 109 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:03,880 the time, told the world that he lost 850,000 Bitcoin. 110 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:10,680 Bitcoin fell from $11163 to $152 like that, down 87%. 111 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:14,560 The longest Bitcoin bear market in history. 48 months. 112 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:19,720 Bitcoin fell from $11163 to $152, down 87%. 113 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:22,120 That was the longest Bitcoin bear market in history. 114 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,600 It was 48 months. That was a cold winter. 115 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,960 What happened next? Bitcoin hit $20,000 in December 116 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:33,520 of 2017 from $152. That's a 13,000% recovery, 117 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:37,280 13,000% Now real quick, because we're talking about history 118 00:06:37,280 --> 00:06:42,360 repeating itself and usbeingpreparedforitourpartners@sat123.com 119 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:46,240 carry premium survival gear, the kind you actually want when 120 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:47,680 things get unpredictable out there. 121 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:50,760 Quality equipment, serious prep, none of the gimmicks. 122 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:53,880 Go to sat123.com and use the promo code simply and you'll get 123 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:58,000 15% off your entire purchase on satellite phones, solar power 124 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,880 generators, and all the devices you need to stay 125 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:06,840 connectedthatssat123.com promo code simply now. 2017 is what 126 00:07:06,840 --> 00:07:09,600 brought most people into Bitcoin, myself included. 127 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:11,240 Everyone has a story from this cycle. 128 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:15,760 Bitcoin ran from $900 in January to $20,000 by December. 129 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,680 That's a 2100% increase in one calendar year. 130 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:23,000 Icos were raising hundreds of millions of dollars for 131 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:25,160 technical shit. Your neighbor was a crypto 132 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,160 expert and CNBC was doing daily segments. 133 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,800 Then 2018 happened. The SEC announced it was coming 134 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:33,760 for Icos. Exchange hacks happened in 135 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:38,120 north-south Korea and Japan, and the froth drained out fast. 136 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:42,560 Bitcoin fell from $20,000 to $3200 over the course of the 137 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:46,600 year, down 84%. South Korea's intelligence 138 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:51,160 agency says it has evidence showing North Korea was behind 2 139 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,880 hack attacks on the country's cryptocurrency exchanges earlier 140 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,000 this year. The National Intelligence 141 00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:00,880 Service says North Korea is suspected of stealing the 142 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:05,680 personal information of some 30,000 people registered with 143 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:10,320 Bitsum in June and robbing virtual money from Coinys in 144 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,240 September. It says malicious code used by 145 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,840 the North Korean group behind the 2000, 1014 Sony Pictures 146 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,560 hack was discovered in both cases. 147 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,440 Respective economist Nouriel Roubini testified before the 148 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,160 United States Senate that Bitcoin was the mother of all 149 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:26,360 bubbles. Forbes. 150 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:28,880 Bloomberg. The same headlines, the same 151 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:31,360 certainty, the same track record of being wrong. 152 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,039 What happened next? Three years later, Bitcoin hit 153 00:08:34,039 --> 00:08:40,240 $69,000 from 3200. That's a 2000% recovery. 2022. 154 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,559 This one hurts because the causes were institutional. 155 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,760 In May, Terra Luna USD lost its peg. 156 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:50,040 The whole algorithmic stable coin system collapsed in 72 157 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:55,800 hours, 45 billion in value gone. Luna went from $119 to 158 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,480 effectively 0. Following a day in which 159 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:03,240 teetering stable coin Terra USD bounced around $0.90, it resumed 160 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,960 its freefall overnight to approach $0.30, before 161 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:10,320 recovering partly to $0.43 this morning and $0.64 this 162 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,680 afternoon. However, this performance could 163 00:09:12,680 --> 00:09:16,280 be considered downright bullish when compared to Luna, the token 164 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:19,720 designed to maintain its $1.00 peg, which has now fallen below 165 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:23,880 $2.00. Luna is down a staggering 98% in 166 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:27,000 the past five days, which has seen its market capitalization 167 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:30,680 lose $25 billion this week. A lot of people got wiped out in 168 00:09:30,680 --> 00:09:32,600 this time. The contagion spread like a 169 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,920 virus. 3 Arrows Capital went bankrupt, then Celsius, then 170 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:41,160 Voyager, and then in November, FTX, the second largest crypto 171 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:45,160 exchange in the world, imploded. Sam Bankman Freed had been 172 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:49,880 secretly using customer funds for trading $8 billion missing. 173 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,840 So we got arrested. What do we know about how Sam 174 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:55,680 Bankman Freed effed up in his words? 175 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,400 Yeah, he did tell investors that and he would be extremely 176 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:00,320 grateful. He asked investors if they would 177 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:05,560 step in and help fill this hole. It's an $8 billion hole in FT XS 178 00:10:05,560 --> 00:10:08,360 balance sheet that is bigger than the size of Robin Hood's 179 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:11,600 entire market value. And remember, last year alone, 180 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:16,480 they raised $2 billion in six months from investors from a 181 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,440 Sequoia who had marked down the value of of its entire stake and 182 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:23,240 had doubled down on its bet. Skybridge was in many levels of 183 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:27,320 series rounds here. The Paul Tudor Jones family was 184 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:31,000 in other rounds as well. There's investors really around 185 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:32,520 the globe that were exposed to this. 186 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:35,440 And so listen, going back to investors is very difficult. 187 00:10:35,560 --> 00:10:39,160 He'll need about $4 billion, according to our reporting. 188 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,280 And whether he can get that or not, he would likely have to 189 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,200 file for bankruptcy protection if he can't get that money. 190 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,520 There's a lot of question about the ramifications here for more 191 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,480 FTX in the industry at large. I think Jim Bianco put it well 192 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,520 in a call we had yesterday that there's a real risk here that 193 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,640 dozens of firms will fail on the back of this, given that they 194 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,560 had their accounts with FTX. So you have consumers both on 195 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,640 the institutional side, potential miners, brokerages 196 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,120 that may not be able to get their money back, as well as 197 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:08,680 customers who have lost billions of dollars here. 198 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,680 So unless the industry came in and bailed them out, again, 199 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,880 remember, This is why JP Morgan thinks that there's going to be 200 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:16,960 more risk here at play and more margin calls. 201 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:20,360 There's a real risk here that there is nobody to save the day 202 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,960 for FTX, meaning others will feel pressure from this. 203 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:29,400 Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $15,000, down 77%. 204 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:33,000 This time the obituaries had actual ammunition, not just 205 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:36,000 Bitcoin is volatile. Actual fraud, actual criminal 206 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:40,720 charges, actual victims. The Bitcoin is dead count hit 207 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,120 new records. What happened next After that, 208 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:47,240 though, 16 months later, driven by the first spot Bitcoin ETF 209 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:50,280 approvals, Bitcoin broke $69,000 and kept going. 210 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:57,360 It hit $109,000 in early 2025, from $15,000 to $109,000. 211 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:01,280 That's a 604% recovery in 16 months. 212 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:03,320 Now let's pause here for a second, because if you're new to 213 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:06,480 Bitcoin and this crash is freaking you out, I want you to 214 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,680 hear this part. Every single crash that I just 215 00:12:08,680 --> 00:12:11,800 described, the people who got hurt the worst were the ones who 216 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,360 left their Bitcoin on an exchange that they didn't 217 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:18,080 control. Mount G, Ox, FTX, Voyager, 218 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,160 etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. All of them were exchange 219 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,360 failures, not Bitcoin failing exchanges failing. 220 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:27,600 Our partners at the Bitcoin Way exist for this exact reason. 221 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:31,920 They'll walk you through self custody simply, safely, wherever 222 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,240 you're starting from. Go to thebitcoinway.com right 223 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:35,960 now. You can book a free 30 minute 224 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:39,720 consultation at the bitcoinway.com/beyond Bitcoin. 225 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:43,120 There's no pitch, there's no pressure, just real people 226 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,240 trying to help you out. They've been through this 227 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,040 before. That's the bitcoinway.com/beyond 228 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,040 Bitcoin. Here's what the bears keep 229 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,680 saying this cycle, the four year cycle is broken. 230 00:12:52,680 --> 00:12:54,880 Institutional money changes the dynamics. 231 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,040 It's too correlated to risk assets now. 232 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:00,920 What's going on right now? Do you feel that this four year 233 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:02,760 cycle is? Still, still resonant. 234 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:06,880 I think we still have a four year cycle, but it's starting to 235 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:10,800 become somewhat disjointed and it's reflective of the sheer 236 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,800 amount of institutional flow that we've seen come in. 237 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:17,360 So what that's done is it's created a natural liquidity pool 238 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:22,080 and, and, and a base to stop, you know, what would have been 239 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:27,080 traditional retail flow bringing Bitcoin down. 240 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:31,240 And so, you know, yes, price has been volatile, but it's nowhere 241 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:35,520 near as volatile as it was. OK, here's what hasn't changed. 242 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,600 A 21 million hard cap. Nobody's printing more. 243 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,440 No FED can change that. No tariff touches it. 244 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:42,920 It's fixed. It's absolute. 245 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,280 It's forever. The network is stronger than any 246 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:48,040 previous cycle. More hash rate, more nodes, more 247 00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,600 wallets, more developers. Every bear market burns the weak 248 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,560 projects and leaves bitcoins infrastructure cleaner. 249 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,480 Institutional adoption is higher than any previous cycle. 250 00:13:57,680 --> 00:14:02,680 BlackRock is running a spot ETF. Fidelity Strategy holds 3.4% of 251 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:04,480 all the Bitcoin that will ever exist. 252 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,320 This infrastructure didn't exist at any previous bottom. 253 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,080 The floor is higher. Here's Sailor this month. 254 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:12,720 The critics are saying his thesis is breaking, but listen 255 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:14,960 to what he says. Well, most people don't 256 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,160 understand how the Internet works, but they obviously use it 257 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:18,480 every day. They don't understand how their 258 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:20,520 iPhone is put together, but they use it. 259 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,160 And it is like that video you mentioned of you holding the 260 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,240 iPhone saying everybody's going to want this. 261 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:29,240 And Stretch seems to be that product that addresses the main 262 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:32,200 market need of not wanting volatility but wanting a stable 263 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,720 cash dividend. You have a 2 plus year runway 264 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,800 for it with cash. MSTR is still trading at a 265 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:40,440 premium. You guys still are buying 266 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,600 Bitcoin, but yet every time I see you on these news programs, 267 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:47,080 it seems like they're expecting Bitcoin to go to zero. 268 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:51,320 And you've gone from hero to Oh my gosh, what's happening? 269 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,280 Bitcoins dying. Do you ever feel like they're 270 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,560 rooting for you to fail? And how do you deal with like 271 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,880 that swing in in sentiment? The struggle is real. 272 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:07,320 The struggle is real, but you know, to be more serious, when 273 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:10,680 Bitcoin is hitting all times high, all time highs, there's a 274 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:15,120 sense of exuberance and, and all of the media terms positive and 275 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,000 it's glowing and people are doing high fives. 276 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:22,680 And when it draws down, there's a gloominess to it. 277 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:26,200 And then and then people over forecast to the negative. 278 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:31,560 I think that that it's the volatility that drives the 279 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:36,840 engagement and the interest and the speculation and, and there's 280 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:41,760 something to talk about and they're talking about us. 281 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:44,760 You know, what they're not talking about is they're not 282 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:48,760 talking about, you know, real estate on the Upper East Side of 283 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,600 Manhattan. They're not talking about timber 284 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,320 rights. They're not, you know, like 285 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,320 people people they, they talk about all these non volatile 286 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,280 assets. Well, non volatile assets means 287 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,800 there's no news. And if there's no news, there's 288 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:04,880 no interest. He's been through this before, 289 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,480 multiple times, and every single time the thesis was called 290 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,440 broken, so he bought more. That's not stubbornness, that's 291 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,680 a conviction built on 16 years of the same pattern. 292 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:18,640 Here's a clip of Sailor back in 2012 clearly explaining the 293 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:20,800 issue. There's not an 8 year old on the 294 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,760 planet that doesn't want an iPhone 5, right? 295 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,520 Who wants to wait 42 seconds to watch something download instead 296 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,320 of 2 seconds? Nobody, right? 297 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,480 You don't have to be a genius to run Apple Computer. 298 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,600 You just have to, every year, make the product a bit lighter, 299 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,600 a bit more elegant, make it a better radio, make it a better 300 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,240 battery. And then I sat with, you know, 301 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:46,200 one of the 10 richest guys in the world for dinner three 302 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,840 nights ago, five nights ago, and we had dinner for four hours and 303 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:51,720 he didn't have to talk, you know, I didn't have to talking 304 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,400 and at once. And he's much more successful 305 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,240 than I am. I understand that, by the way. 306 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,600 As I said, it's like it's you don't sometimes you got to do 307 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,320 other things than just have opinions to make money, right? 308 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,800 There's a lot of execution involved the rest, but I have 309 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:11,760 opinions. So so he said to me, you know, 310 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,440 Apple computer, can these guys hold their prices? 311 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:16,400 You know, aren't you know, aren't they going to follow the 312 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,839 model of the PC industry? Aren't their prices are going to 313 00:17:18,839 --> 00:17:21,880 taper down their 40% margin become 30 and 35 and 20. 314 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:24,760 And it's another example. People just know enough to hurt 315 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:27,640 themselves, right. If you go to France and this is 316 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,600 the benefit of seeing enough you go to France you see Bernardo no 317 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:35,040 runs a company LVMH they're selling handbags for 4000 318 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,800 dollars 3000 dollars, $2500 each. 319 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:42,560 This is a device that women view as fashion and it's 10,000 years 320 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:46,960 old and for 10,000 years no, the prices are not lower after 321 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,320 10,000 years if you actually. Things that are genuinely 322 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:54,600 valuable don't follow skeptics, predictions, great brands, hard 323 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:58,360 assets, things with real properties that the market keeps 324 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,840 rediscovering. Bitcoin's been around for 16 325 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:02,400 years now, priced in any currency. 326 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:03,840 It's not lower than when it started. 327 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,880 It has died 477 times. The price is up roughly 10 328 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:09,840 million percent from its first transaction. 329 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:11,800 That's not luck. That's the pattern. 330 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:13,760 So here are the recovery timelines. 331 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:17,280 Crash by crash 2011. Crash 20 months to the new all 332 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:20,520 time high 2013. Crash 48 months to the new all 333 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,800 time high. That's the longest 2018. 334 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,720 Crash 36 months to the new all time high 2022. 335 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,080 Crash 16 months to the new all time high. 336 00:18:28,120 --> 00:18:30,160 The fastest yet. The recoveries are getting 337 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,360 faster, not slower. And every cycle the 338 00:18:32,360 --> 00:18:35,080 institutional infrastructure gets deeper, the floor gets 339 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:36,840 higher, the recovery accelerates. 340 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,560 As I mentioned in my previous video, here's the fear and greed 341 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,040 index right now. We hit extreme fear single 342 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,840 digits earlier this cycle. That is where every prior 343 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,560 recovery started. Every Bitcoin cycle has its 344 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:51,520 moment, a point where, looking back, it was obvious where the 345 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,960 fear was maximum. The headlines were screaming, 346 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,520 and the person who didn't panic, or better, the person who 347 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,360 bought, quietly changed the financial trajectory of their 348 00:19:01,360 --> 00:19:09,280 family. 2011 buyers made 570 X 2015 buyers made 130 X 2018 349 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:13,440 buyers made 20 X 2022 buyers. They made 7X. 350 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:18,600 We are here sitting at 47% off the $126,000 high. 351 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,680 The obituary writers are actively firing up their chatty 352 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:25,600 PTS, The four year cycle bears are loud running their AI agents 353 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,840 and the Fear and Greed Index is reading extreme fear. 354 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,360 But it's all a hallucination. Someone is about to be a 2026 355 00:19:34,360 --> 00:19:35,200 buyer. Is it you? 356 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,160 Someone is going to tell their kids about this moment. 357 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,040 You see where this is going right before we close, If you 358 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,240 want to connect with people who have actually lived through 359 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,960 every one of these crashes and kept holding, we're on the club 360 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,520 orange.org app, formerly known as the Orange Pill app, Same 361 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,120 community, new name. You can find me there. 362 00:19:52,120 --> 00:19:56,080 I'm at Oceans OSHINS, I'm on the app, Just my name. 363 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,360 I read every message. So if this crash has got you a 364 00:19:59,360 --> 00:20:02,360 little rattled and if you want to hear from some people who are 365 00:20:02,360 --> 00:20:07,040 buying at $2.00 or $152 or $3200 or $15,000. 366 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,000 Most people are right there. Club orange.org. 367 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,600 My handle is Oceans. Again at oceans. 368 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:13,920 So here's where we are right now. 369 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,080 Bitcoin is down 47% from the all time high. 370 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,960 That puts this draw down exactly in the middle of every previous 371 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,520 crash. Smaller than 2011, smaller than 372 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:29,320 2013, comparable to 2022. The obituary account is at 477. 373 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:30,880 This crash will probably add a few more. 374 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,400 The network is still running. Blocks are still being mined. 375 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:35,880 Sailor is still buying. Institutional infrastructure has 376 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,920 never been deeper. This is crash 477, and I'm sure 377 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,040 it won't be the last. So the question was never if 378 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,440 Bitcoin recovers. Every single piece of historical 379 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,560 evidence says it does. The question is whether you're 380 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:49,520 positioned for it when it does. 477 times someone was confident 381 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:53,560 enough to write that Bitcoin was dead, and 477 times they were 382 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:54,960 wrong. Not because they were stupid, 383 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,520 Well, maybe, but because they were looking at the short term. 384 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,760 They were looking at the chart, at the thing that just broke. 385 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,320 They were looking at the fear, not the fundamentals. 386 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,200 Bitcoin doesn't care about the short term. 387 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,840 It's a fixed supply monetary network built to outlast every 388 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:12,360 crash, every government, every central bank, and every economic 389 00:21:12,360 --> 00:21:14,200 cycle. The people who understood that 390 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,160 clearly enough to hold or buy when the obituaries were being 391 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,960 written, those people are fine. But the people writing the 392 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:24,040 obituaries, they'll be writing in the next one too, I'm sure. 393 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,920 So make sure you get out there and you study Bitcoin. 394 00:21:27,120 --> 00:21:29,040 Anyway, thank you so much for watching this video. 395 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:30,960 If you like what you see and you want to see more, make sure you 396 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,520 hit that like button below. Or you can subscribe to the 397 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,600 Simply Bitcoin channel for more content like this. 398 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:37,840 We're coming out with it every single day of the week. 399 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,240 Also, do not forget to hit that notification bell. 400 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,120 You can also leave us a comment if you like. 401 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:44,200 If you like it, you don't like it, whatever you want. 402 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,240 If you want to reach out to me directly, I'm also on X at Run 403 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:52,360 Dance Bitcoin. That's RUNDANCE Bitcoin because 404 00:21:52,360 --> 00:21:54,800 I used to run and dance and I like Bitcoin. 405 00:21:55,120 --> 00:21:56,320 Anyway, until next time.