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Yo, welcome to another episode 
of Simply Bitcoin IRL. 

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Today we have a very special 
guest, someone that I've been 

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looking forward to having on the
show, Hoffa Zagury. 

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He goes by the name Alpha Zeta 
on Bitcoin Twitter. 

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He is Swan's chief investment 
officer. 

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Before I bring him on stage, I 
do want to give a shout out to 

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the Bitcoin company that power 
Simply Bitcoin IRL. 

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Of course I'm talking about 
Bitcoin. 

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Well, Bitcoin was the best place
to build your automatic self 

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custody Bitcoin stack. 
It's a publicly traded company 

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coming out of Canada that 
recently expanded to all 50 U.S.

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states. 
It is self custody by the fault 

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That means that you have to take
self custody if you buy Bitcoin 

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on Bitcoin. 
Well, which perfectly aligns 

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with the simply Bitcoin ethos of
the separation of money and 

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state. 
They also just announced their 

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instant sell Lightning. 
So you can literally sell 

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through the Lightning network, 
send a transaction automatically

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deposits to your bank account. 
They just launched in Canada. 

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They're bringing it to the US 
Guys. 

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Check out bitcoinwell.com for an
automatic self custody Bitcoin 

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platform. 
Bring up Hoffa on stage. 

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Hoffa man, I've been looking 
forward to this for so long. 

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And I'm going to start it off 
with this because people don't 

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know this, but it was Dom 
yourself and it was during the 

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Nakamoto portfolio. 
I was actually producing that 

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show. 
I was in the background and I'll

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be honest, Hoffa like I do a lot
of shows. 

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So like, I'm like, OK, like I, I
but I was so tuned in the entire

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time because I was fascinated 
about the conversation. 

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And then the news dropped and it
wasn't just a couple $1,000,000,

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it was like $100 million 
investment exposure to Bitcoin. 

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I have a feeling you might have 
played a small role in that. 

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Am I incorrect in saying that? 
I don't know what's up, Nico. 

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Great. 
Great being here, man. 

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Thanks for inviting me. 
Same here. 

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Was looking forward to joining 
you here for for a while. 

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So super happy to be here. 
But yeah, I don't know. 

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Hard to know, right? 
But as you described, it is 

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exactly right. 
We like to think that we had, 

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you know, even if it's a small 
part in this that we had some, 

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some part, part of it on it, 
right? 

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And just to recap, like we, we, 
we hosted that show, you know, 

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I'm going to have the dates 
wrong, but I think it was around

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September of last year, right? 
And we went through their 

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portfolio. 
We looked at that. 

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And by the way, we picked 
Wisconsin because they have one 

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of the best portfolios out 
there, right? 

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They're very well established. 
They have very good asset 

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allocation, they have very good 
funds that they're ready 

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investment. 
They're very professional in the

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way that they report. 
So we really like the way that 

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they were doing. 
But there was one thing missing,

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right? 
They didn't have Bitcoin, 

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although they had, you know, 
inflation protection assets, 

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they had real estate, they had 
all other things in their 

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portfolio, right? 
Had a lot of private equity. 

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They didn't have any Bitcoin 
exposure. 

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So we, you know, on that show 
for people that don't know what 

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we do is that we go through the 
portfolio. 

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First of all, we invite a guest,
so we have a conversation around

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why it makes sense to have 
Bitcoin and in the pension fund,

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in an endowment, in a 
foundation, one of these large 

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institutions. 
Then we pull their portfolio, we

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plug it into Nakamoto portfolio,
right, and say, okay, if we were

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CIOs for the company, if we were
investment analysts for the 

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company, if we were looking for 
an allocation, how much wood 

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should we be putting in a 
portfolio, which is a question 

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we got from everybody's like, 
OK, I get the thesis, I 

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understand. 
So how much should I allocate, 

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right? 
The right answer is always 100%,

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but we can't go back to them 
with 100% immediately, right? 

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So we'll tell them like, you 
know, that he given your 

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portfolio, given the risk reward
characteristics that you have, 

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here's how much you should have.
So we did that. 

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We went back and I put the 
numbers here now. 

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So it was September 5th and at 
the end of the show we make a 

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recommendation and say, OK, you 
know, for this portfolio we 

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should have, you know, X 
percent. 

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Our recommendation was anywhere 
between 1:00 to a range of 

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between one and 3%. 
And he said right now we're 

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going to allocate 2%, right. 
Hypothetically Bitcoin was at 

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$25,000, so that would have been
160% performance. 

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So that 2% would have been, 
would become almost would have 

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been almost 5% of the portfolio 
at at this point, right? 

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Which is just crazy to think 
about. 

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You know, if they, they had 
followed through. 

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Like we made some noise around 
it when we put this out there. 

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We know we tagged some people 
from, from Wisconsin. 

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I like to, you know, I, I like 
to think that we had even if it 

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is a small impact on that, on 
that decision that, you know, it

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helped them. 
And by the way, like the 

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analysis that I, you know, I did
there with Dom and Foss and Joe,

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you know, it's, it's all of us. 
It's very similar to what I 

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would have done to an 
institution. 

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Like when I was at Goldman doing
these kind of, it's exactly the 

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same thing, right? 
We would sit down, look at the 

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portfolios and say, OK, you're 
thinking about investing in this

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new hedge fund manager. 
You're thinking, here's what you

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would do, right? 
So if they saw the show and if 

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they got, you know, even if they
read some, it would look like 

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something that, you know, they, 
they would know about. 

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And this is exactly why I 
started the Nakamoto portfolio, 

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right? 
This should talk in the language

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that these guys understand 
because when they go into 

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Bitcoin Twitter, everything they
see it's memes, noise and 

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monkeys jumping around. 
I mean, Hoffa, look, I, I, I 

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100% maybe that's a stress. 
No, I'm sticking to it. 

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I 100% have a feeling you guys 
are responsible for that. 

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And the reason I'm saying that 
is my experience orange peeling 

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people has been you plant the 
seed number goes up and they're 

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like, oh, like F like I should 
have listened. 

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And they definitely did the 
calculations that you just did. 

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And they're like, this was a, 
this was a major miss. 

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And they literally handed to us 
and we didn't listen. 

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So like, but I'm interested, 
Hoffa, in what you said about 

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your your Goldman experience. 
And the reason for that is I 

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have one of my best friends. 
I went to high school with him. 

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Not going to name him, 
obviously, but when I had John 

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Harr on the show, I literally 
said talked about the same thing

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and a very successful Goldman 
here in Miami. 

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And you know, he's one out of my
six best friends from high 

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school that still does not like 
Bitcoin. 

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Like he's still holding his gun.
Then he like he hates me for 

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he's like it's gone up. 
He's like, you know, F Unico, I 

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don't want to talk about it. 
So how did you go from that 

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traditional financial background
and how did you, how did you get

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orange pilled? 
What was it about Bitcoin that 

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attracted you? 
Because like, maybe there's a 

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stretch to say like Hoffa, 
someone that works in that world

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is benefiting from the Fiat 
system. 

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Like you, you're, you know, 
you're succeeding. 

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What made you convert? 
Like what made you come to the 

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side of Orange? 
Yeah, I think it's a it's a 

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combination of several things. 
But before, before I go there, 

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if you look, you know, today I 
posted something on Twitter that

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you know, you can, you can 
credit me in the future if it 

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happens. 
I said that Apple should also 

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think about looking into Bitcoin
and allocating Bitcoin to their 

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treasury, which just it's mind 
blogging that that they have not

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done that yet, right, Given 
where they are and the amount of

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cash that they have and the fact
that again, they are involved in

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technology. 
So you know what, we can have 

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another show whenever Apple 
comes in, decides to allocate to

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to Bitcoin. 
But more important, right, I 

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think, and I think there is a, a
switch happening where for a lot

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of these institutions up until I
would say six months ago, a year

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ago, talking about Bitcoin, 
right and thinking about 

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Bitcoin, putting Bitcoin in a 
portfolio was almost a career 

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risk, right? 
It was very hard for them to 

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see. 
And I saw that like I tried to 

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bring Bitcoin up in several 
conversations at Goldman, 

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Deutsche, you know, Merrill 
Lynch and with different people 

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that I knew. 
And up until a year ago, people 

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didn't even want to listen to 
you with very, very rare 

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exceptions, right? 
Going back to your question, I 

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think, you know, quite honestly,
I think I was very lucky to have

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gone through a life journey that
made me I think a little bit 

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more open to seeing Bitcoin. 
First of all, I was born and 

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raised in Brazil through 
hyperinflation, right? 

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And in crazy hyperinflation 
where we would see money 

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literally lose value overnight, 
right, My mother would give me 

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money to go to the school and 
say, okay, here's our lunch 

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money for tomorrow. 
Spend everything. 

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Because if you just keep this 
money in your wallet in a week, 

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it's going to be worthless. 
So that already shaped me. 

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I think just start thinking 
about money in a different way. 

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Then when I went to university, 
you know, I was also lucky and 

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this wasn't by design. 
I didn't know this, you know, 

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but my university taught us 
Austrian school economic and 

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also, you know, traditional 
Keynesian economics at the same 

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time. 
So that also, I think got me 

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primed to, to, to understand it 
a little bit better. 

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And even more important, I 
always love technology, man. 

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I, you know, like I started 
coding at the very early age. 

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I always loved to code. 
You know, all the summers, what 

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I would do is I would go to my 
friends house and you know, we 

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would, we would run around 
running BBSS, which were 

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bulletin board systems back in 
the 90s, right. 

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So I saw the whole, you know, 
cypherpunk movement starting 

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from the beginning. 
So, so I always liked 

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technology. 
I ended up going to finance 

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because, you know, that's where 
I think of a lot of people that 

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liked, you know, science and 
math ended up going, you know, 

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on my generation. 
But these three things, when I 

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think about, you know, the fact 
that I was born and raised in a 

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place with hyperinflation, the 
fact that I like technology, 

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right? 
The fact that I already had a 

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little bit of an Austrian school
background, it helped me 

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significantly, I think, to see 
Bitcoin. 

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And then the drop in the bucket 
was, you know, something that 

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it's right here. 
The in the corner is what 

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happened in 2000 and eight, 
2009, you know, which is 

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something that Satoshi wrote on 
the genesis block that the, the 

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financial crisis really got me 
started thinking about, you 

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know, I, I need to look into 
alternative things. 

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And it's like most people, I 
looked at gold at that time 

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investing good. 
A lot of my clients at the time 

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invested in alternative assets 
because they were worried about 

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what was happening with the with
the financial system And Fast 

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forward and I heard about 
Bitcoin a couple of times, 

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completely ignored, like most 
people in the beginning. 

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And then around 2015, there was 
a guy that I used to follow who 

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was a gold bug also and wrote a 
lot about, you know, the Fed 

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already and the fact that the 
deficits were ready escalating 

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and the fact that, you know, 
regulation was just increasing 

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everywhere was harder and harder
for banks to do any business. 

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And then he mentioned Bitcoin 
and that's kind of like how I 

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like I got started. 
I went through all the mistakes 

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that most of us go, you know, I 
bought some shit coins, you 

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know, I sold my Bitcoin early. 
So but eventually I came back to

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it and let and then it's a very 
long way to answer your 

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question. 
Back in 2019, no, sorry, 2020, 

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the company that I was running 
in Brazil was starting to take 

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off was landing fintech. 
And as we went through different

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rounds, right? 
So I was as embedded in the, in 

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the Fiat system as you can 
imagine, right? 

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I was running a lending fintech 
that got funded by SoftBank, 

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right? 
But that's the whole thing just 

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looked odd for me and just 
looked like, you know, it's, 

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it's all a lot of it is just 
make believe, right? 

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Valuations, make believe, you 
know, the money is make believe.

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00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:23,880
And I always had the feeling 
that the system was broken. 

224
00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,680
So when I left the company and 
I'm like, OK, now I want to go 

225
00:12:26,680 --> 00:12:30,880
back to should basics go back to
Bitcoin, spend some time, I 

226
00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,120
started going back to 
contributing to open source 

227
00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,960
software, right? 
Started going back and coding 

228
00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,040
again. 
I actually helped the Spectre 

229
00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:41,240
guys to write their first API 
back back in the day. 

230
00:12:42,560 --> 00:12:46,320
And then I started seeing what 
everybody was doing, including 

231
00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:48,560
Swan, right? 
And then I got interested in in 

232
00:12:48,560 --> 00:12:51,160
joining Swan. 
So yeah, that's how that's how I

233
00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:54,480
got here. 
Man it, it's, it's so it's so 

234
00:12:54,560 --> 00:12:57,400
fascinating and I, I remember 
when I had that conversation 

235
00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,240
with John Harr, it was that was,
I was like, what are you doing 

236
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:01,720
here, man? 
Like what, what, what's going 

237
00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,200
on? 
And you know, and it's. 

238
00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,520
Question what? 
What are the other guys not? 

239
00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:08,240
Why they're not here, right? 
And why? 

240
00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:09,720
What are they doing at the other
side? 

241
00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:13,360
Yeah, no, but it, it's almost 
like, and I remember I think it 

242
00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:15,240
was you that tweeted this, 
right? 

243
00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:19,040
And you, it was so funny. 
You're like, I used to like, 

244
00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:22,880
like, you know, the, the, the 
Fed meetings were some type of 

245
00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:27,040
ritual and we were like taking 
it so seriously back in the day.

246
00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:31,560
And now I look at it and you 
know, the South Park clip right 

247
00:13:31,560 --> 00:13:34,000
where they're like, what, what 
should we do with the economy? 

248
00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,880
And they YouTube they 
metaphorically cut off the the 

249
00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,360
head of a. 
Chicken and the chicken. 

250
00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:43,840
Just runs around. 
So like, like, is it, is it a 

251
00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:45,800
cult? 
It is a cult, but we're a cult. 

252
00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:47,440
But at least our cult's better, 
right? 

253
00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:51,280
Our cult's much better. 
Like I will tell you, I'm not 

254
00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:54,960
kidding. 
Like Fed meetings would come up.

255
00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,120
And not only Fed meetings, 
announcements like CPI would 

256
00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,280
come up. 
You know, even Treasury auctions

257
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,160
would come up and you could hear
like a pin drop. 

258
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,320
Imagine a trading like Marrow 
had this trading floor, It was 

259
00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:10,360
as big as almost like a football
field, right? 

260
00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:15,240
And everybody was just focused 
on what, you know, a couple of 

261
00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:18,480
people were going to decide 
because that was and it, you 

262
00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:21,560
know, it's crazy, right? 
It was super important to to 

263
00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:23,840
their P&L, right? 
And they would get impacted by 

264
00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:25,240
those things and markets would 
move. 

265
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,840
So of course people were, you 
know, we're very motivated by 

266
00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:29,320
money, right? 
It's a crazy thing. 

267
00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:34,080
And yeah, and, and now I look 
back and that that is the code, 

268
00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,400
right? 
That is the code. 

269
00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,000
It's not, it's not this like the
fact that they're like they're 

270
00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:43,520
praying for these five guys or 
10 guys or 15 guys to come up 

271
00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,560
and give the perspective in the 
way that they want, right? 

272
00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,320
I'd rather just open my code on 
the node and make sure that, you

273
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:54,600
know, the the C amount function 
is working and I know exactly 

274
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,160
what the cap is going to be in 
and exactly when the having is 

275
00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,680
going to happen, right? 
And I know exactly what block we

276
00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,960
are right now. 
They're calling that a code. 

277
00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,440
I I don't know, I think the 
other part's a code, not this. 

278
00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:10,080
Yeah, no, I totally agree. 
I and Hoffa, it's it's really 

279
00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,280
interesting. 
I've, I've had this conversation

280
00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,120
with Lavish and Lapard and I've 
always had the same thing, which

281
00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:19,000
is I've been in Bitcoin 1/3 of 
my life, right? 

282
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:23,080
It's my career. 
But to do the podcast and to 

283
00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,800
have conversations like with 
people like you, man, that have 

284
00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:29,240
this tremendous amount of 
experience, I've had to go 

285
00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,200
backward and learn the 
traditional financial system 

286
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,720
from a Bitcoiners perspective. 
Like I learned Bitcoin 1st and 

287
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,320
then learn that. 
And I'm like, Oh my God, this is

288
00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:39,680
crazy. 
This is archaic. 

289
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:41,880
Like I can't believe this 
happens. 

290
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,080
Bitcoiners. 
I've met more bitcoiners that 

291
00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:48,840
know more about macroeconomics 
than people that then then 

292
00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:50,720
traders that do this for their 
lives. 

293
00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,280
Because bitcoiners I think have 
a motivation that it's very 

294
00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:55,200
different, right? 
They want to learn for the, the 

295
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,240
right reasons. 
And they're like, OK, I, I need 

296
00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:58,960
to understand this system 
because I really need to 

297
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,760
understand if what I'm doing is 
right, right? 

298
00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,960
And what, why we always question
like I up until today, I 

299
00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,200
question like, am I crazy, 
right? 

300
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:10,040
Am I, am I the crazy one? 
Because everybody else still 

301
00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:14,320
there and imagine like for my 
generation for a long time. 

302
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:17,560
You know, This is why I created 
the Alpha Zeta profile on on 

303
00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:21,160
Twitter, because for a long time
I couldn't talk to anybody, you 

304
00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,840
know, around me about Bitcoin 
because the few times that I 

305
00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,360
tried, people just look at me 
like literally, I, I was crazy, 

306
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,520
right? 
And I remember telling people 

307
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,640
back in the day saying, listen, 
does that set is going to become

308
00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:34,840
really important? 
It's going to be the subject of 

309
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:39,240
presidential debates and people 
would look at me like, what are 

310
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:43,120
you smoking? 
And here we are, right? 

311
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:45,560
We were right. 
We were right, Hoffa. 

312
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:49,400
So Hoffa, look, I and, and 
especially with someone with 

313
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,120
your background and your 
experience and I, I because I 

314
00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:54,760
really want everyone to 
understand who, who's, who's 

315
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:59,160
watching right now, the 455 of 
you that are watching right now.

316
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:05,079
Hoffa, I have a question. 
So what how monumental is this 

317
00:17:05,079 --> 00:17:10,400
in terms of BlackRock coming in 
the Wisconsin Investment Fund? 

318
00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:14,680
You had Wells Fargo that came 
out that had an allocation to 

319
00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,200
Bitcoin. 
You had the second largest bank 

320
00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:21,079
in in Europe, I guess PNB 
Baribus or something that the 

321
00:17:21,079 --> 00:17:26,119
French bank you had, I think it 
was AJP Morgan came out and they

322
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:29,040
had some type of exposure. 
You have nations, you have the 

323
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:32,520
Kingdom of Bhutan, you have 
Kenya, you have El Salvador, 

324
00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:34,160
right? 
You have nation states, you 

325
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,080
know, mining, you have the 
public miners going over there 

326
00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:41,360
like bit deer and marathon. 
What are we on the verge of? 

327
00:17:41,360 --> 00:17:45,960
Because you know, none of these 
things were true or even existed

328
00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,520
the last time we were at these 
prices in 2021. 

329
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:56,200
So I mean, am I being a over 
optimistically bullish because 

330
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:58,880
you know, I, I, I might not have
the background that you have 

331
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,920
Hoffa, but it's common sense to 
see that the institutions are 

332
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:04,880
here. 
You have Larry Fink going on 

333
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:08,640
legacy financial media and he's 
sounding like a bitcoiner, like 

334
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,600
he's using all our talking 
points. 

335
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,600
So could you like, what's your 
take on that? 

336
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,840
Like what? 
What is happening right now? 

337
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:20,760
Yeah, I think, listen, this all 
goes back to to fundamentals or 

338
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,400
I think the fact that people are
starting to wake up to a few 

339
00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,440
things there. 
As we were saying, like, you 

340
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,320
know, Bitcoin is the ultimate 
savings technology. 

341
00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,920
It's immune to the the whims of 
a few, right? 

342
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:36,280
So doesn't matter if a couple of
people want to change the, the, 

343
00:18:36,360 --> 00:18:39,400
the, the monetary policy, right?
It won't change the monetary 

344
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:43,200
policy has 15 years of very 
stable, very predictable 

345
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:47,240
monetary policy and in the world
that we live right, we live in a

346
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:50,720
world of uncertainty and people 
would say that Bitcoin is 

347
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,160
volatile. 
I think the volatility is in the

348
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,960
world right now. 
Bitcoin is a is just a beacon of

349
00:18:56,120 --> 00:18:59,640
predictability, right? 
And in this world and if people 

350
00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,720
think people are gradually 
waking up to that and through 

351
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:06,480
that process, Bitcoin is going 
to demonetize a lot of the 

352
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,880
assets out there. 
But let's go back to, to some of

353
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,320
the things that you mentioned 
because then, you know, I think 

354
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,680
going through time, it's 
important to understand what is 

355
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:18,160
happening and I think the 
importance of what we we are 

356
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,000
witnessing. 
So first of all, I think the big

357
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,320
change that we saw and we were 
talking about this through last 

358
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:27,480
year's, we started to see that 
the ETF was going to get 

359
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:31,600
approved. 
This is a massive change because

360
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:35,880
first of all, it provides, it's 
like a plug and play technology 

361
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,160
that a lot of the financial 
advisors, a lot of the funds out

362
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,840
there can just allocate to 
Bitcoin pretty much immediately 

363
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,760
using the software that they 
have, the brokered accounts that

364
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,480
they have, right? 
They don't need to go in on 

365
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:52,360
board with somebody else, which 
for an individual it's easier 

366
00:19:52,360 --> 00:19:54,920
like, you know, for me opening 
an account that's one at 

367
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,600
Coinbase, whatever it is, it's 
an easy process. 

368
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:02,360
But for an institution, right, 
it's a little bit harder because

369
00:20:02,360 --> 00:20:04,720
they need to understand how the 
keys are going to be managed, 

370
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:06,840
where they're going to have the 
keys or they're going to do, you

371
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:10,200
know how they're going to do the
custody, right? 

372
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:11,960
They're going to do their own 
custody, they're going to get a 

373
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:13,480
custodian. 
So they're all things that an 

374
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,120
institution is going to is going
to work. 

375
00:20:15,120 --> 00:20:17,160
And when you do that in an 
institution? 

376
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,360
You have to sit down in a 
committee, you have to sit down 

377
00:20:20,360 --> 00:20:22,520
with your partners, you have to 
sit down with your shareholders.

378
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,480
You need to convince them right.
And a lot of times it's, it's 

379
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:29,160
not an easy conversation. 
Side Story here, I'll tell you 

380
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,120
one story. 
So I mentioned like we went 

381
00:20:32,120 --> 00:20:36,400
through Series A to D for, for 
my company when we did the 

382
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:41,280
Series D when SoftBank came in 
as an investor to the company, 

383
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,440
that one of the things that I 
wanted to do, I was already a 

384
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,280
Bitcoiner by then. 
And I told them, like, listen, 

385
00:20:47,360 --> 00:20:52,160
this is an opportunity for us to
become the first company in 

386
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:56,040
Brazil to have to show that we 
have Bitcoin in the balance 

387
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:57,400
sheet. 
So what I want to do with you 

388
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,600
guys is, you know, we're going 
to raise, instead of raising X, 

389
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:02,560
we're going to do X + a little 
bit. 

390
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,440
That little bit is going to sit 
in Bitcoin is going to be our 

391
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,040
Bitcoin treasury. 
We're not going to touch it. 

392
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,640
We're going to be committed to 
touch it, not touch it for five 

393
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:13,440
years, right. 
That amount, you know, I don't 

394
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:17,120
need to to say it would have 
been significantly higher, but 

395
00:21:17,360 --> 00:21:21,080
it was hard like I couldn't 
convince my board like my board 

396
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,800
couldn't understand like I it 
was pretty much free money 

397
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:27,040
because what's coming from the 
shareholders already from the 

398
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,480
investors already said that they
were going to do that, right. 

399
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,960
But my board couldn't couldn't 
understand it like whoa, so 

400
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,400
you're going to put in Bitcoin, 
Why not invest in the business, 

401
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,560
right? 
So it LED conversations that and

402
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:39,520
I was founder and CFO of the 
company. 

403
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,760
So it led to conversations that 
were much longer than I wanted. 

404
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,360
I dropped that very quickly. 
I said, listen, I'm just wasting

405
00:21:46,360 --> 00:21:48,080
time. 
And then I just started thinking

406
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:49,760
about the company and raising 
capital. 

407
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,440
And then, you know, I don't want
to put this the, the, the, the 

408
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:57,880
series, the round was seriously 
round true at risk, right? 

409
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,000
So then I, I completely 
abandoned the idea. 

410
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,840
And I think that has happened 
for a long time because of the, 

411
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,520
you know, difficulty of people 
understanding and also thinking 

412
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,480
like we went to discussion about
custody. 

413
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,800
So how are we going to custody 
the bitcoins where it's going to

414
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,040
say it's right? 
It was a word that was 

415
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:18,240
completely opposite from what 
everybody was was seeing, right?

416
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,960
The ETF changes that 
significantly. 

417
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,440
It becomes much easier for 
anybody to get access 

418
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,360
immediately. 
Do I think it's the right way to

419
00:22:27,360 --> 00:22:29,080
hold Bitcoin? 
Do I think people should be 

420
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,200
buying an ETF instead? 
Of course not. 

421
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,880
People should buy Bitcoin, Have 
self custody of Bitcoin, 

422
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,000
Understand the process of self 
custody. 

423
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,080
I think one of the best 
experiences should go through. 

424
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,720
I'll tell you like he and I had 
a meeting with some billionaire 

425
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:48,520
Brazilians about a year ago, and
as we were sitting there now 

426
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:50,800
we're talking about Bitcoin. 
Go through all the things like 

427
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,600
the cap, everything, everybody 
understood. 

428
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:58,040
What's really got them converted
was the 2nd that you know, GE 

429
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:02,360
gets his phone out, sends me 
some sats in my phone, right? 

430
00:23:02,360 --> 00:23:05,240
And they see the sats going from
one phone to the other pretty 

431
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,000
much immediately. 
And then you know, I send it 

432
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,520
back to him. 
That experience for them was 

433
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:12,800
just like, so let me get this 
right. 

434
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,640
I just saw one person that had 
custody of an asset send it to 

435
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:20,040
another person pretty much 
immediately and we could have 

436
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,760
been sitting, you know, 
thousands of kilometers away. 

437
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,160
So that experience I think 
everybody needs to go through to

438
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,480
really understand, because 
that's how you're going to 

439
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,000
understand. 
You know, the also the details 

440
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,760
around how the manpool was set 
up, you know, how transactions 

441
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,000
are built. 
And ultimately I think people 

442
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,840
get there. 
But going back to the importance

443
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,880
of the ETF, it's kind of like a 
gateway drug, right? 

444
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,760
People are going to get in, 
they're going to understand more

445
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:47,160
the asset, the number is going 
to go up, you know, number go 

446
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,000
up. 
It's a very strong incentive for

447
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:51,920
learning. 
Then people Start learning a 

448
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,440
little bit more, right. 
And before, you know, an 

449
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,480
allocation, as price goes up, an
allocation as we saw, you know, 

450
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:02,800
if Wisconsin that started at 2% 
becomes 5%, it becomes relevant 

451
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,720
in the portfolio. 
So you really need to understand

452
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,040
at that point. 
So one thing just just leads to 

453
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,200
to the other. 
Then we started having, you 

454
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,600
know, after the ETF came out. 
And I think that that started 

455
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,600
should bring some legitimacy to 
to the asset class. 

456
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:20,320
Then we started to see just the 
dominoes start to fall into 

457
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:22,720
place, right. 
And as you said, you know, we 

458
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:26,240
saw BlackRock coming in and 
completely changing their tune 

459
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,880
around Bitcoin, saw, you know, 
pension funds like Wisconsin 

460
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,680
coming in and allocating, right?
We sort of continue to see a 

461
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,680
wave of different institutions 
putting Bitcoin in their 

462
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,680
portfolio. 
And gradually as that happens, 

463
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,680
it just brings more and more 
legitimacy to the asset. 

464
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:47,640
I already fought until 2-3 weeks
ago or a month ago, right, as 

465
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,520
this was all happening. 
Listen, impossible for Bitcoin 

466
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:54,680
to be to be banned right now 
because the adoption is already 

467
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:58,400
so wide right, already have, you
know, a sanitary, you know, a 

468
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,000
clear Bitcoiner with Senator 
alumnus. 

469
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,480
So I think it's very hard for 
Bitcoin to be banned after what 

470
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,360
happened this weekend, right? 
Which I think it's a culmination

471
00:25:08,360 --> 00:25:10,280
of all these things with Trump 
coming in. 

472
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:15,000
And now it's clear that it 
became, you know, not only it's 

473
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,040
a it's a political issue, right?
It's a platform. 

474
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,640
And whoever is going to be 
against Bitcoin is definitely 

475
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:23,360
going to lose a lot of votes, 
right? 

476
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,360
And that's not only in the US, 
right? 

477
00:25:25,360 --> 00:25:28,920
The USI think it's it's it's 
it's the most important place 

478
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,800
for this to happen because it's 
kind of like showcases for the 

479
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,880
rest of the world. 
But I can guarantee you that, 

480
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,920
you know, politicians in Brazil,
in Argentina, in Chile, right, 

481
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,240
in Europe, they, they are taking
notes and you're like, listen, 

482
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,120
my next election is coming in. 
I better be pro Bitcoiners 

483
00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:48,120
because you know, the, the bit, 
there's one thing with 

484
00:25:48,120 --> 00:25:50,640
Bitcoiners, right? 
We're, we're very noisy. 

485
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,640
It's a quote, as you say, and 
we're going to come back and, 

486
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,560
you know, if we, if bitcoiners 
like you, they're going to be 

487
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,200
promoting you. 
But if they don't like you, 

488
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,840
right, they're also going to be 
telling people, right, you know,

489
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,200
about the things that you know, 
you should be paying attention 

490
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:03,880
to. 
You're not. 

491
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:10,840
Yeah, a a 100% and oh man, I'm, 
you're making me extremely 

492
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:15,640
bullish. 
OK, so Hoffa, the institutional,

493
00:26:16,360 --> 00:26:19,880
what you're saying is the 
institutional stamp of approval.

494
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,360
I think BlackRock had a lot to 
do with that. 

495
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,520
Definitely the change in tune. 
Now what I would say from the, 

496
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,880
because I, I really see Bitcoin 
as two things fundamentally. 

497
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,840
There's the investment and then 
there's the revolution. 

498
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:34,760
The revolution I, in my opinion,
is self custody. 

499
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:39,120
I think that's really going to 
change things fundamentally in 

500
00:26:39,120 --> 00:26:41,120
the sense that it's going to 
change the relationship between 

501
00:26:41,120 --> 00:26:44,440
the individual and the state. 
You as a Brazilian, me as a 

502
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,160
Venezuelan, we understand that 
very well, right? 

503
00:26:48,120 --> 00:26:54,280
So does it worry you at all that
the vast majority of the Bitcoin

504
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,920
that these institutions hold, 
we, we have a name for it. 

505
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:02,280
It's simply that captured 
Bitcoin is all custodied with 

506
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:08,840
Coinbase like it's just one big 
honeypot. 1 executive order 6102

507
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:13,160
Bitcoin version away from, you 
know, just like that. 

508
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,800
Do you think we can ever get to 
a point where, you know, you 

509
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:21,240
have public companies actually 
taking self custody themselves? 

510
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,920
I mean, Jack Dorsey made it open
source, like what to do and how 

511
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,520
to do it. 
Do you think we'll ever get to 

512
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,560
that point and do you think 
that's necessary? 

513
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,400
I think we will, it is 
absolutely necessary, no 

514
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,400
question about that. 
I think Bitcoin go let's go back

515
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:42,160
to to the fundamentals, right? 
It's the first time that we have

516
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,160
an asset, right? 
Not only financial assets, but 

517
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:50,160
you know, an asset that we 
actually have can have custody 

518
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:51,760
of it and personal custody of 
it. 

519
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,480
There's no other asset that I 
can hold that, you know, just by

520
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:59,360
memorizing 12 words in my mind, 
I would hold the assets, right? 

521
00:27:59,360 --> 00:28:02,840
So one of the things that a lot 
of these institutions haven't 

522
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:06,640
realized yet is that this is the
ultimate collateral. 

523
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,760
Bitcoin is better than, you 
know, anything out there that we

524
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:14,280
use as collateral today. 
Let's use gold as an example, 

525
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:15,720
right? 
So if we use gold as a 

526
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,280
collateral, I mean, you need to 
verify that the gold is going to

527
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:23,520
be in, in a vault somewhere that
it it is real gold, right? 

528
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,400
First of all, that's what you 
have there. 

529
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,320
All the bars are gold and that 
that just not being re 

530
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,680
hypothecated, re hypothecated 
between you and 100 other 

531
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,400
clients, right? 
As I was saying, like back in 

532
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:39,200
2007 as that there's one thing 
in 2007, everybody knew that the

533
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,120
crisis was going to come, right?
Everybody was talking about it. 

534
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,600
Everybody thought that prices in
real estate were really 

535
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,080
stretched, that everybody was 
super leveraged, right? 

536
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,960
So it was very well announced 
that the crisis was is going to 

537
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:52,760
come. 
It took much longer than than 

538
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,000
expected, just like most things 
usually take in financial 

539
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,400
markets. 
But I had several clients coming

540
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:01,240
to me. 
There was one specific. 

541
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,560
I was at Goldman at this point 
and they like, listen, we want 

542
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,960
to protect ourselves. 
We've looked at everything. 

543
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:13,600
We want to buy gold and then 
GLD, the gold ETF was already 

544
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,160
available. 
So the first thing they came to 

545
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,400
us like, OK, so we're looking at
different options. 

546
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:22,360
Let's start with GLD, right? 
Very quickly they looked at GLD 

547
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,680
and like, well, I don't know 
exactly where this is held, 

548
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:26,960
right? 
I don't know exactly where the 

549
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,400
gold is. 
I don't know if the gold that 

550
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,760
they have there is 
rehypothecated or not, right? 

551
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,040
It's gonna take and you can get 
you these, you can do due 

552
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:34,720
diligence, you can really 
understand, right? 

553
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,360
But these are all risks that 
you're still, you're still 

554
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,720
running, right? 
And you're very, very far away 

555
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,440
from from the collateral. 
The could be the, the distance 

556
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:48,440
between the holder and the 
collateral is gigantic, right? 

557
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:50,280
And it is subject to things, as 
you said, right? 

558
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:54,760
The government could come in and
could just confiscate, not that 

559
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:58,840
they've done this before, right?
You could come in and confiscate

560
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,880
the gold, right? 
And he was worried about that. 

561
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:03,720
So I said, okay, so I don't want
to do that. 

562
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,360
What's the next option? 
And so we go through all the 

563
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:07,920
options, right? 
At the end of the day, it's 

564
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,920
like, okay, So what I should do 
is maybe, and this is a large 

565
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,800
family office, so it's not like 
they can just buy the bars of 

566
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,040
gold and hold them, you know, in
their office. 

567
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,560
It needs to be somewhere, right?
So what got they couldn't get 

568
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:22,000
comfortable. 
They went all the way saying, 

569
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:23,960
OK, so we're going to go to 
Switzerland, we're going to see 

570
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:25,640
the vault. 
We know where the vault is. 

571
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,480
We know that the gold, gold is 
there. 

572
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,640
But then they started going to 
this endless analysis, like, I 

573
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:32,480
don't know if it's my gold 
again, I don't know if it's 

574
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,000
gold. 
I don't know if the day that I 

575
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,160
leave there that they're going 
to sell that gold to somebody 

576
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,040
else, right? 
There's nothing saying the gold,

577
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,600
it's my gold, right? 
Bitcoin sorts all of this out, 

578
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,400
right? 
You know that the Bitcoin is 

579
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,000
your Bitcoin. 
I can sign a message verifying 

580
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,800
that, you know, I own a UTXO 
that you know, can, can, can 

581
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,520
hold, you know, 10 SATS, for 
example, right. 

582
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,120
So I can, I have proof of 
ownership. 

583
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,720
It's really, really easy. 
It's completely verifiable. 

584
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,640
I can look, you know, after 
knowing exactly the address for 

585
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,440
that Bitcoin, I can just look at
the blockchain 24/7. 

586
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,400
I can monitor that it's not 
going anywhere. 

587
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,760
It's not being rehypothecated 
and more important, it's 

588
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:13,080
controlled by by me, right? 
I memorize 12/24 words and 

589
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,480
that's it. 
I can hold as much as I want and

590
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,920
I don't need security guards, 
right? 

591
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,520
I don't need complex vaults, any
of that. 

592
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:28,040
Literally, you know, somebody 
can cross a border escaping from

593
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,160
Venezuela, escaping from even 
Brazil, right? 

594
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,160
You never know. 
I mean, countries have changed 

595
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,920
significantly pretty much 
overnight, right? 

596
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:42,760
So the fact that we have access 
to an asset like this, it's I 

597
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,760
think it's, it's, it's 
completely under underplayed and

598
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,920
people don't understand that. 
Well, it will happen with time. 

599
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,600
I think as I was saying, as you 
get into Bitcoin, you understand

600
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,200
all of these things, then it 
comes to the realization of how 

601
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,960
much better it is than anything 
else that it's out there, right?

602
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:06,400
It's, it can hold its value 
across time across space much 

603
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,040
better than all of the other 
assets that you have there, 

604
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:12,080
right? 
Living in Brazil, like one of 

605
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:16,280
the things that Brazilians do a 
lot to store value is to buy 

606
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,960
real estate. 
And I don't think people 

607
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,160
understand, you know, all first 
of all, all the costs that they,

608
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,160
they run with real estate and 
then more important, all the 

609
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,800
risks, right? 
It's, it's not really your real 

610
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:31,960
estate and you can stake it 
across the border if something 

611
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,280
happens, right? 
It's always going to be there. 

612
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,600
Try stop paying your taxes. 
You'll see what happens. 

613
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,280
Ultimately, you're going to lose
your real estate, you're going 

614
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,080
to be taxed to death because you
know, when you fleece in Brazil,

615
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,440
when you pass that real estate 
to your kids, you have to pay an

616
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,400
inheritance tax and you know, 
you have to pay taxes on pretty 

617
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,760
much everything and to pay 
annual taxes. 

618
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:56,440
So you know, it's, it's Bitcoin,
you don't pay anything for it, 

619
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:58,920
right? 
It's just it's sitting there by 

620
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:04,080
by definition. 
So I, I just, and I go back also

621
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:09,200
a lot to like the reason why I 
ended up in Brazil is because 

622
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,960
both my grandparents, you know, 
at some point had to escape 

623
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,240
their countries to, because of 
several things, right? 

624
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:20,240
Either World War Two or, you 
know, they're being persecuted 

625
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,760
for other things. 
So these things have happened in

626
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,040
history, right? 
And we we always think that, you

627
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,560
know, these times should they 
are different and that's never 

628
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:29,640
going to happen. 
That is happening, right? 

629
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:33,000
I mean, if you were in Ukraine, 
you had to leave Ukraine, right?

630
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,640
If you are different countries 
that get into a war, you may 

631
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,760
have to leave and may have to 
leave everything behind. 

632
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:43,720
You know, after doing that and 
try leaving a country like 

633
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,760
Brazil with a bar of gold and 
going through customs, right? 

634
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:50,000
I wish you luck. 
You're not not going to get 

635
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,360
through. 
And again, I think that the 

636
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:55,920
characteristics of Bitcoin are 
just very, very different than 

637
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:57,520
anything else that we we have 
out there. 

638
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,920
And people are going to see that
that with with time. 

639
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,000
Just another side, very quick 
Side Story here. 

640
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:09,400
After, you know, I, I came to 
Swan and I went back to Goldman 

641
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:11,600
because we were at some point. 
They were. 

642
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,400
They let you in. 
They they asked hardly, did 

643
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:15,560
they? 
Arrest you at the door. 

644
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,239
I don't know why they had like 
two guys, you know, watching me 

645
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,920
and Kanye escorting me up, but 
that was weird. 

646
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:27,199
But it did it happen. 
But you know, jokes aside, like 

647
00:34:28,159 --> 00:34:31,040
when I raised the the capital 
for my company in Brazil, so we 

648
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:35,360
did my company in Brazil did 
unsecured landing for 

649
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:39,560
individuals in Brazil doesn't 
get riskier than that, right? 

650
00:34:39,639 --> 00:34:43,679
I mean, very high default rates.
So we had of course very good 

651
00:34:43,679 --> 00:34:47,000
technology to monitor the 
clients to underwriting of the 

652
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,719
clients, right? 
Goldman invested in our credit 

653
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,520
fund, right? 
So they gave us capital to go 

654
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:55,600
out and land to, to the clients,
very high yield as you can 

655
00:34:55,600 --> 00:35:00,600
expect, but very high risk and 
risk that it's unpredictable 

656
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,240
because default, typical default
rates in this market to give you

657
00:35:03,240 --> 00:35:06,800
an idea, Nico is like 20%. 
When we were have like 20% 

658
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:08,760
default rates, we were very 
happy, right? 

659
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:12,440
And we were making a ton of 
money because banks in Brazil 

660
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,600
will lend money to their 
clients, right? 

661
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:18,800
If it is short term capital at 
10% a month. 

662
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:21,040
So it's not 10% yet, 10% a 
month. 

663
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:24,440
So today in Brazil, you need 
capital from a bank, right? 

664
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,160
They would charge you, if you're
lucky, they're going to charge a

665
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,880
10% a month, right? 
So we were landing at less than 

666
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:34,200
that at like 7%. 
And we were already making a 

667
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:40,160
fortune because again, like the,
the, but the risk is the market 

668
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:43,120
starts to decline. 
The default rates go from 20 to 

669
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:47,200
40 and you're screwed, right? 
So anyway, so we did that. 

670
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,240
Fast forward, I come to Bitcoin 
only company. 

671
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,400
So I called the Goldman guys. 
I went there to visit them, 

672
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,080
right? 
And like, listen, I'm thinking 

673
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:58,680
about doing a Bitcoin back 
landing fund, right? 

674
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,560
So it's completely 
collateralized by Bitcoin. 

675
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,800
You see the Bitcoin, it's over 
collateralized, right? 

676
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,840
Let me tell you again, there's 
no risk on this, right? 

677
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:11,480
You're seeing the Bitcoin, your 
risk is the remote risk that 

678
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,960
overnight it's 50% over 
collateralize it, 50% of the 

679
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,920
value of Bitcoin evaporates 
overnight. 

680
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,200
It need literally needs to be 
overnight because otherwise you 

681
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:23,120
can just do margin calls, right?
What did they tell me? 

682
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,240
Oh, we don't want to do that. 
That's too risky, right? 

683
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:27,680
So that just tells you 
everything. 

684
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,200
It's like it's not logical, 
right? 

685
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:32,240
It's not logical. 
There's no logic in this because

686
00:36:32,240 --> 00:36:35,440
if the IT would be logical, they
would just put the numbers in a 

687
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,280
spreadsheet, right? 
They say, OK, And then at the 

688
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:40,760
end I pressure them like, guys, 
you're out of your mind, right? 

689
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:42,720
This is much better economic 
than what you have. 

690
00:36:42,720 --> 00:36:45,280
I don't understand. 
And at the end of the meeting of

691
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,800
the part and tells me it's like,
listen, the reality is that I'm 

692
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:51,800
gonna have a very tough time 
going to my investment committee

693
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,720
and talking about Bitcoin and 
explaining to them what Bitcoin 

694
00:36:54,720 --> 00:36:56,320
is. 
And he's like, I get it. 

695
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:58,280
He didn't get it, but he's like,
I get it, right. 

696
00:36:58,720 --> 00:37:01,640
But I'm going to them and 
explaining that it's gonna take 

697
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:03,360
me a month. 
It's gonna take me two months, 

698
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,000
right? 
I don't think they're ready for 

699
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:05,760
that. 
And he's right. 

700
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,560
They're not ready for that. 
And remember also like this is a

701
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,080
guy that, you know, has a 
pipeline of ten of their funds. 

702
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:12,760
They're looking to get capital 
with him, right? 

703
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,040
There are other opportunities. 
He doesn't need to pay attention

704
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:18,480
to this. 
And there was, they were up 

705
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:23,640
until, and this is again just to
close it up, but up until I 

706
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:27,000
would say the beginning of this 
year, the career risk for all of

707
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,160
these guys was to not look at 
Bitcoin, right? 

708
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:34,680
And very, very soon, and it's 
starting already, I can tell you

709
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,560
the career risk for all of them 
is going to be to not look at 

710
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,240
Bitcoin. 
I wish luck to a lot of these 

711
00:37:41,240 --> 00:37:44,760
pension funds that 5-10 years 
down the road they're going to 

712
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:46,880
get asked by, you know, their 
constituents. 

713
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,880
You're going to say, you had all
these people talking about 

714
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:51,920
Bitcoin. 
This as expected went up and you

715
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,480
have Wisconsin that allocated is
doing really well. 

716
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:58,360
And now we can't pay, you know, 
our pensioners, they're going to

717
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,160
have to come up with a very good
justification of that, why they 

718
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:02,680
didn't allocate to Bitcoin, 
right? 

719
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,840
And at the minimum, and this is 
what I've been done, like it's 

720
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,960
OK if they decided, you know, it
doesn't fit their portfolio, but

721
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,560
they need to take a look at the 
assets, sit down and understand.

722
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:13,200
And really, and people are not 
even doing that. 

723
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:16,040
And I, I think, I, I don't 
think, I'm sure this is a 

724
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:20,320
fiduciary breach to, to their, 
to their investors, right. 100% 

725
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:24,920
I 100% agree with you. 
And it it again, we were talking

726
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:26,200
about it in the very beginning, 
right? 

727
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,440
It's it's almost like cult like 
behavior. 

728
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:33,080
But you know, you have the CEO 
Vanguard Grant and I don't think

729
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:35,520
it's a coincidence that he 
resigned when he resigned. 

730
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:40,280
He's grandstanding. 
It's like no, like with the tie,

731
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:45,240
like we're we can't do that 
BlackRock best performing ETF in

732
00:38:45,240 --> 00:38:50,120
history. 
So, yeah, it 100% if you're a 

733
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,840
quote, UN quote financial 
advisor and you're not, you 

734
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,840
know, telling your, your, your 
client to allocate at least 1% 

735
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,240
of which I think is very 
concerned. 

736
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,480
It always starts with one and 
ends up two and ends up three, 

737
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:03,960
right. 
We all know that you just need 

738
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:06,760
the foot in the door. 
But yeah. 

739
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:09,760
On that point, this is this is 
important. 

740
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:13,640
Like I was discussing this with 
Terence the other day and he 

741
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:18,040
mentioned that Lynn mentions the
same thing, which is I would 

742
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:23,320
rather an investor start with a 
small allocation and not 

743
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,080
rebalance. 
Then it's starting to for larger

744
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,120
allocation and try to trade in 
and out. 

745
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:31,200
Because Bitcoin is an asset that
it's because of the volatility 

746
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,560
and because it's early and 
because it's still capturing 

747
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,520
monetary value of a lot of 
assets out there, it is going to

748
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,560
have volatility. 
There's no question volatility, 

749
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:40,120
we should embrace it. 
It's a good thing. 

750
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,240
It's not a bad thing. 
It means that it's early, right?

751
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:46,640
So I would rather these 
investors start small, but don't

752
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:47,600
mess with it. 
Believe it. 

753
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:49,840
I always tell the institutional 
investors like, listen, you're 

754
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:53,440
going to allocate for this asset
right in your investment policy 

755
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,920
that you're not going to touch 
it for a minimum of four years, 

756
00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:59,560
right? 
Ideally 10, but a minimum of 

757
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:01,880
four years. 
You're going to allocate, you're

758
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:05,120
going to leave it there and it's
going to go up significantly. 

759
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:06,840
It's going to go down 
significantly, right? 

760
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,320
But if you just start trading 
this asset and rebalancing, you 

761
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,680
may end up with with less asset 
assets at the end of the day. 

762
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:16,840
Yeah. 
And I think that's that's it. 

763
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:21,520
I call it the price of tuition. 
If you first start shit coining 

764
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:23,960
then whatever. 
And it's all just cuz you want 

765
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,240
more Bitcoin. 
But it usually Odell has the 

766
00:40:27,240 --> 00:40:29,520
famous line right? 
Stay humble stack sacks. 

767
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,480
It's really that simple. 
You know, Hoffa like an 

768
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:36,200
interesting phenomenon too, with
like high net worth individuals 

769
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:39,640
that are like kind of forced to 
become investors just to 

770
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:41,680
maintain their purchasing power,
right? 

771
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,760
They either outsource that they 
try to do it themselves. 

772
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,920
It's almost a shock to them when
you go to them and you're like, 

773
00:40:50,240 --> 00:40:53,760
you just have to buy it and you 
put it in cold storage and 

774
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,320
that's it. 
And they're like, that is 

775
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,160
impossible. 
And they kind of go through this

776
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:01,600
like mental process of like, 
that's insane. 

777
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:04,120
And then they start to listen to
you because it's like, wait, the

778
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:07,000
kid in the T-shirt and the 
hoodie and like, he's giving me 

779
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:10,400
better advice and you know, 
this, this, this guy, like what 

780
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:13,440
is going on here? 
So you know, but Bitcoin does 

781
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,200
that. 
Starts with what you know, even 

782
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:20,800
before all of that, let's 
question why does the doctor 

783
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,120
right? 
Why does the lawyer have to 

784
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:27,040
think about buying stocks, about
buying bonds, right, about 

785
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:29,160
thinking about. 
I'll tell you, like my father is

786
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:33,680
a doctor and he needs to invest.
He's like, oh, so where do I put

787
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,640
the money now, right? 
And it stresses him out like 

788
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:38,680
every month he calls me, it's 
like, listen, I have these 

789
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:40,920
bonzer coming due, you know, 
where do I put the money? 

790
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:45,120
How do I invest, right? 
And it, this happens all the 

791
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:47,240
time. 
And the reason why it happens is

792
00:41:47,240 --> 00:41:49,480
because again, the money is 
broken, right? 

793
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,960
You need, it's a current. 
You're swimming against the 

794
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,840
current and if you just sit 
there and if you just, and 

795
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,960
people very quickly realize 
this, they leave the capital 

796
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,160
sitting in their checking 
account, right. 

797
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:02,840
Five years down the road, 1010 
years down the road, you're 

798
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,040
purchasing power ready went down
by almost half. 

799
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:10,880
And when, when, when I worked 
with high net worth individuals,

800
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:13,960
right. 
The number one concern, and 

801
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,920
these are people, they're worth 
like $50 million, a $100 million

802
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:20,000
number one concern on their 
minds was running out of their 

803
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,800
of money, which is I remember 
looking at like absolutely no 

804
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:25,160
way this guy's going to run out 
of money. 

805
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:26,800
But they knew something I didn't
know, right. 

806
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,080
They're like, oh, I'm getting 
older and you know, my 

807
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:31,920
healthcare costs are just 
exploding up, right. 

808
00:42:32,240 --> 00:42:34,520
And they just seen what has 
happened and they're 

809
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:37,960
extrapolating to the future and 
say, well, what happens in a 

810
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,840
world that, you know, inflation 
really picks up? 

811
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,920
And I can just sit here and 
think that, you know, I have 

812
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,120
$100 million maybe is an 
exaggeration. 

813
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:50,120
But the guy that, you know, used
to have like $5,000,000, you 

814
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:54,480
know, in 2008, it was considered
like, oh, this guy doesn't need 

815
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:55,600
to. 
I remember like saying like 

816
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:58,360
$5,000,000, you don't need to 
work anymore in your life, like 

817
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:00,200
never, right? 
I mean, you can just go enjoy, 

818
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:04,200
enjoy life, buy a boat, right? 
Go buy a nice house and you can 

819
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:07,520
just enjoy life. 
The rest thought that $5 million

820
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,040
is little much, still a lot of 
money, right? 

821
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:12,640
But I think that's hard to 
retire. 

822
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:16,040
Yeah, with $5 million today, 
right? 

823
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:18,320
And it was even less than that, 
right. 

824
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,760
Look, in the 70s, there was this
show called the $1,000,000 man, 

825
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:23,800
right? 
That used to run in the in the 

826
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:27,960
US and $1 million was like, oh, 
this guy, it's like a 

827
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:29,360
billionaire. 
Actually, it's pretty much the 

828
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:30,960
same thing. 
It's like a billionaire today, 

829
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:32,920
right? 
Somebody that has so much money 

830
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,520
that doesn't even know where to 
put the money, right? 

831
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:38,240
And look at the number of 
millionaires that exists today 

832
00:43:38,240 --> 00:43:40,880
in the in the US, right? 
It's ridiculous. 

833
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:43,280
And it's not because people are 
getting richer, it's because the

834
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,320
money, it's becoming worthless, 
right? 

835
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:51,520
And through this process, we 
saw, you know, the monetization 

836
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,400
of assets that should have never
been used. 

837
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:58,240
For premium on real estate is 
bonkers. 

838
00:43:58,240 --> 00:44:01,440
It's insane. 
Doubling in like one or two 

839
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:02,840
years. 
It's it's insane. 

840
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:06,880
Yeah, it's crazy in the 
secondary if and it's all again,

841
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,800
the government's fault because 
in the US you have all these 

842
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:12,880
benefits to buy real estate. 
You can deduct the interest that

843
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:18,280
you get right from your taxes. 
So you are very incentivized to 

844
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:21,080
buy, to buy real estate and 
people did like people were 

845
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:24,680
rational in that decision. 
But what it ended up doing is 

846
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:27,240
now you have a new generation 
that's coming in to buy homes 

847
00:44:27,240 --> 00:44:28,680
and they can't afford homes, 
right? 

848
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:32,720
Their homes became this 
Frankenstein of an asset that 

849
00:44:33,240 --> 00:44:35,720
you know, shouldn't be a savings
account. 

850
00:44:35,720 --> 00:44:39,240
And it became a savings account 
got it got morphed into 

851
00:44:39,240 --> 00:44:42,440
something that, you know, it was
never supposed to be that way. 

852
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:44,400
It's supposed to be a place 
where you live and you raise 

853
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:48,120
your kids and you have your or 
your family, right, and not the 

854
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:51,800
place where you put your money. 
And and that's what I was going 

855
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,480
to say, like in in Brazil, 
historically, that's where 

856
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:55,960
people put their money, right? 
They come here to. 

857
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:57,800
Miami. 
They come here, they buy an 

858
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,320
apartment completely empty, just
leave it there. 

859
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:06,040
They'll pay the condo fee and 
they're like, I am good, I'm 

860
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:09,680
doing great. 
And then prices double and then 

861
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:11,640
they see it. 
There's a huge Brazilian 

862
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,760
community here, so I know 
exactly what you're talking 

863
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:17,520
about. 
And they're not being, you know,

864
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:21,000
irrational by doing that. 
First of all, an apartment in 

865
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:24,280
Miami, the Brazilian government,
good luck going to take it over,

866
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:25,440
right? 
It's going to be much harder. 

867
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:28,960
So just for them crossing the 
cap, the potential capital 

868
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:31,520
controls already has a lot of 
value to it, right? 

869
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:34,120
But more important, they just 
look at the charts and like, 

870
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:37,480
yeah, Miami real estate went up,
you know, pretty much every 

871
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,000
every year for the last 5-10 
years, right? 

872
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:44,000
So as an investor investment, 
it's the best investment that I,

873
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:49,040
I can probably do. 
Now there's a limit to how much 

874
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:52,200
monetization and an asset like 
that can take, right? 

875
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:58,400
I think in real terms, not in, 
in no, in nominal terms, maybe 

876
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,920
there's no limit because people 
keep printing money and then, 

877
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:02,360
you know, of course prices keep 
going up. 

878
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:05,120
But in real terms, there's a 
limit, right? 

879
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:11,000
I can guarantee you that prices 
of real estate in Miami priced 

880
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:14,360
in Bitcoin are not going to go 
up in the next 5-10 years. 

881
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:17,560
They're five years from now. 
We're going to look at prices of

882
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:20,960
a home or condo in new in Miami 
or New York City or whatever big

883
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:24,680
town that you want to get right 
and price it today in Bitcoin. 

884
00:46:24,720 --> 00:46:26,280
Look at again in five years, 
right? 

885
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:29,320
Very, very hard. 
And I can't guarantee that it's 

886
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,400
a guarantee because I'm 
exaggerating a little bit, but 

887
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:35,440
very, very hard for prices to be
when they're priced in a, in a 

888
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:39,040
hard asset that, you know, has a
hard cap. 

889
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,160
We're not gonna be producing 
more people. 

890
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:44,760
Can, you know, governments can 
ask as much as they want. 

891
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:46,760
They can change the code as much
as they want. 

892
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:48,120
They can trash do whatever they 
want. 

893
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:50,520
We're always gonna have 21 
million. 

894
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:51,800
That's it. 
It's a cap, right? 

895
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:56,760
And people are gonna realize 
that also, I think, and This is 

896
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,240
why it bothers me when people 
say that, you know, there's 

897
00:46:59,240 --> 00:47:01,400
there's a lot of volatility in 
bitcoins. 

898
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:04,360
No volatility, man. 
Again, look at this like it says

899
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:08,480
at the most stable monetary 
policy that you can find in the 

900
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:11,320
world today, right? 
None of none other governments 

901
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:13,400
are this stable. 
None. 

902
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:16,040
None of the other shit coins are
this stable, right? 

903
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:17,840
None of them have this track 
record. 

904
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,560
So it's simple, don't 
complicate, right? 

905
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:25,960
That's a sad stay humble stack. 
Sad. 100% And you said something

906
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,760
really interesting, which is 
that we have this idea that the 

907
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:31,280
American Dream is dead. 
And specifically, if you're a 

908
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:35,200
millennial, you're a zoomer, The
American Dream is dead on a Fiat

909
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:39,160
standard, on a Bitcoin standard,
it's thriving and it's been 

910
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:41,840
exported worldwide. 
Life just gets cheaper. 

911
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:45,120
Even Miami real estate, you're 
going to get at a discount five 

912
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:47,920
years from now if you denominate
your wealth in Bitcoin. 

913
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:50,840
Now, Hoffa, I want to double 
back to something you said 

914
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:54,240
earlier in the conversation, and
this is something that I hear a 

915
00:47:54,240 --> 00:47:58,040
lot, which is we are too late to
Bitcoin. 

916
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:01,240
But you said actually we are 
very early to Bitcoin. 

917
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:03,920
What do you mean by that? 
Yeah. 

918
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:07,800
So let's go back to what we were
talking about, right, the, the, 

919
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:13,000
the monetary premium that a lot 
of these assets have captured 

920
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:17,280
through, through decades, right.
So real estate, I think it's a 

921
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:20,240
good example. 
Let's stick with that $320 

922
00:48:20,240 --> 00:48:25,960
trillion market gap in, in real 
estate, right, estimated, I 

923
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:27,880
think maybe actually higher than
that. 

924
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:33,280
I would argue that more than 50%
of that value, it's in real 

925
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:36,440
estate because as we were 
saying, real estate became this 

926
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:40,240
savings technology, this 
Frankenstein of a savings 

927
00:48:40,240 --> 00:48:43,120
technology, right? 
So it's assets that went there 

928
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:46,040
they because they needed to, 
right. 

929
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:48,520
Everybody says, well, you know, 
COVID came in. 

930
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:51,400
There was a lot of money, money 
printing and everybody said it 

931
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:53,360
was going to be inflation. 
Inflation ever came. 

932
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:57,240
Inflation first of all, came 
it's already significant. 

933
00:48:57,240 --> 00:49:00,880
Even if you look at CPI of, you 
know, all these made made 

934
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:05,720
believe indices, but the rear 
inflation didn't go into like 

935
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,680
like the the groceries, right? 
The re inflation went through 

936
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,800
the savings assets because if 
you're close to the money 

937
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:15,920
printer, right, you're not the 
going out and buying groceries. 

938
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:20,000
You are also, but you're putting
your money to to to be invested 

939
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:22,320
somewhere. 
And that's typically in the 

940
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,120
stock market. 
That's typically in real estate,

941
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,680
right. 
So stocks became even more 

942
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:30,360
monetized, right. 
The fact that we kept seeing 

943
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:33,240
prices go up right, right in the
middle of COVID, like people 

944
00:49:33,240 --> 00:49:34,720
couldn't understand like, well, 
what's happening? 

945
00:49:34,720 --> 00:49:38,640
Why is the S&P up so much right 
in the middle of a pandemic? 

946
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:41,560
And that's because it's like the
the monetization of the asset 

947
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:43,480
right? 
Got money printer prints the 

948
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:46,000
land somewhere the money needs 
to go somewhere right. 

949
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:49,320
It doesn't sit in checking 
accounts everywhere and it ends 

950
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:52,400
up, and this is not a trivial 
process, but it ends up in, in 

951
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:56,160
all of these assets and all of 
these assets kept getting an 

952
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:58,360
even higher monetary premium, 
right? 

953
00:49:58,720 --> 00:50:02,000
So if you look at all of these 
in Bitcoin today compared to a 

954
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:07,560
$323 market cap, right? 
Which is again, and it's not 

955
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:10,920
only real estate, it's real 
estate, it's gold, it's silver, 

956
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,840
it's art, it's stocks, it's 
bonds, right? 

957
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:16,960
All of these assets that have 
been monetized for the wrong 

958
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:18,520
reasons. 
I'll give you another example. 

959
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:24,640
Look at the US stock market. 
The S&P compare the performance 

960
00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:29,000
of the stock market with any 
other developed or developing 

961
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:31,840
market in the world. 
The S&P trades at the 

962
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:34,960
significant premium, right? 
The Brazilian stock market 

963
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:36,920
hasn't gone anywhere in the last
10 years. 

964
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:40,080
Euro stocks hasn't gone pretty 
much anywhere in the last 10 

965
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:42,200
years, right? 
So there is a premium that 

966
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:45,960
people are paying to go into 
U.S. stocks to U.S. stocks keep 

967
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:48,040
getting again monetized. 
People are throwing money when 

968
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:51,520
it means stocks, right? 
Again, just tells you that 

969
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:53,960
there's a lot of money going 
around, right? 

970
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:57,600
A lot of fiats going around, 
which is easy money, which is 

971
00:50:57,600 --> 00:51:01,520
soft money, right? 
So the addressable market for 

972
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:05,880
Bitcoin is all of these assets. 
It may not demonize and it won't

973
00:51:06,240 --> 00:51:09,960
demonetize all of them 
overnight, but will gradually 

974
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:13,200
enhance started ready to 
demonetize all of these, right? 

975
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:17,000
I've met real estate investors 
that sold real estate property 

976
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:20,080
to invest in Bitcoin, right? 
I've met people that sold stock 

977
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:24,240
to invest in Bitcoin and it's 
still a tiny drop in this huge 

978
00:51:24,240 --> 00:51:26,920
ocean of liquidity, but it's 
happening. 

979
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:30,120
I actually people want to see 
the numbers, right? 

980
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:36,200
They can go to to Nakamoto 
portfolio and I wrote there what

981
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:38,640
I call it's the, it's the the 
Schrodinger model and not going 

982
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,640
to go too much issue detail, but
it, it basically puts 

983
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:45,320
probability you can address put 
down any probability you want 

984
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:49,280
and then you can show it can 
say, OK, if I think that, you 

985
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:52,400
know, Bitcoin has a 5% 
probability of capturing the 

986
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:55,440
monetary premium of real estate.
And I think that's going to 

987
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:57,400
happen in 20 years from now, 
right? 

988
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:01,000
How much should Bitcoin be worth
if I believe in that world, 

989
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:02,320
right? 
And then it will give you an 

990
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:06,560
estimate based on that. 
And the numbers are usually way,

991
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:10,080
way, way higher than where we 
are right now because again, we 

992
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:13,600
have just capture a fraction of 
the fraction. 

993
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:15,400
Yeah. 
So if you click there on run the

994
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:18,720
numbers on the on the left side 
on the Bitcoin Schrodinger 

995
00:52:18,720 --> 00:52:21,200
model. 
So here people can put down any 

996
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:23,480
if you click there on, for 
example, real estate on the 

997
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:25,760
right on the arrow down. 
Yep. 

998
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:30,240
So you can change here the the 
monetary premium and how much 

999
00:52:30,240 --> 00:52:33,760
you think it's going to capture 
of each of these assets and what

1000
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:37,240
the probability is. 
And you would see by doing this 

1001
00:52:37,240 --> 00:52:42,000
that Bitcoin it's absolutely and
massively underpriced at the 

1002
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:45,000
current levels, right, Even at 
very low probability. 

1003
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:51,080
A lot of times in conversations,
again with institutions, I do an

1004
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,840
experience and I'll tell like 
even before I took, I have all 

1005
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:57,440
these conversations I tell like,
listen, I know you're not very 

1006
00:52:57,440 --> 00:52:59,600
bullish in Bitcoin, right? 
I know you're just getting 

1007
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:02,560
started on this, but let's think
about two scenarios. 

1008
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:05,720
Let's think a scenario that, 
yeah, Bitcoin fails didn't work,

1009
00:53:05,720 --> 00:53:08,640
right? 
It's a catastrophe for some 

1010
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:10,680
reason, right? 
We find out something that you 

1011
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:14,240
know, was I think probability is
very low, but there's some some 

1012
00:53:14,240 --> 00:53:16,360
bug in the code, right? 
For these people, they think 

1013
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:17,840
there is something like that, 
right? 

1014
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:19,760
So think about that. 
And then there's the other 

1015
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:21,320
scenario, right, the other 
extreme. 

1016
00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:25,920
So let's talk about the two 
extremes where Bitcoin really 

1017
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:28,800
captures the monetary premium in
all of these assets and it 

1018
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:32,640
becomes the global standard for 
pricing everything, right? 

1019
00:53:33,760 --> 00:53:36,000
How much probability you think 
of that scenario? 

1020
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:40,560
And I always shocked of the 
numbers that people tell you. 

1021
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:43,600
I think it's, I don't know, it's
a 5% probability that happens or

1022
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,360
a 2% probability. 
And then I plug the numbers in 

1023
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:49,480
and I say, OK, So what you're 
telling me it's right, right. 

1024
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:53,440
So if it's only a 2% probability
and I plug it in here and I look

1025
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:57,080
at all of these assets, Bitcoin 
should already be 10X from where

1026
00:53:57,080 --> 00:53:58,680
it is today. 
So you should be. 

1027
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:00,400
But you, you are telling me, is 
that me? 

1028
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:03,680
You're telling me that in your 
role that you just made-up for 

1029
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:06,200
me, Bitcoin should already be 
priced today. 

1030
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:09,920
It should be priced today 10X or
5X or whatever is their 

1031
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:11,200
assumption of where it is right 
now. 

1032
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:15,400
Never, never in one of these 
conversations we get to the 

1033
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,560
right price of what? 
It's always much higher than 

1034
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:20,400
where Bitcoin is, which again, 
just go, sure, if you do the 

1035
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:22,800
opposite calculation, you just 
plug in, OK, so what's the 

1036
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:26,280
current price of Bitcoin and 
what kind of probabilities will 

1037
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:28,040
get you to this price? 
You'll see that the 

1038
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:29,840
probabilities are very, very 
low. 

1039
00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:33,240
And I think this is also another
way that to show people that, 

1040
00:54:33,240 --> 00:54:36,320
you know why we have volatility,
because it's these probabilities

1041
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:40,800
in everybody's mind, right, Go 
from 5% to 10% to 15%. 

1042
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:44,480
It's the reflection, right? 
It's it's going to be massive 

1043
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:46,320
changes in price at the end of 
the day. 

1044
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:50,880
So Hoffa, first of all, huge fan
of Nakamoto portfolio and I and 

1045
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:54,400
I got to produce a couple, I 
think the first two shows for 

1046
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:56,840
it. 
So start with with you and Dom 

1047
00:54:56,840 --> 00:55:00,400
and and Joe Carlos, sorry, I 
believe was on there as well. 

1048
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:04,920
And and Foss Foss man love Foss 
legend. 

1049
00:55:05,720 --> 00:55:10,200
So OK, so now I want to get into
what Hoffa thinks. 

1050
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:13,120
OK, so this is, you know, the 
potential, right? 

1051
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:14,920
Are we early? 
That was a great answer. 

1052
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:20,040
But what what is your personal, 
you know, your personal bias? 

1053
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:24,880
Like are we talking about, you 
know, a 10X over 20 years like 

1054
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:25,920
that? 
That makes me a little 

1055
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:28,600
depressed. 
Are we talking about a 10X over 

1056
00:55:28,600 --> 00:55:32,320
the next 5 to 10 years? 
You know, I think I heard you 

1057
00:55:32,920 --> 00:55:37,680
somewhere drop the 100 X 
statement. 

1058
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:41,640
So what what are you personally 
doing with your financial 

1059
00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:43,240
planning? 
Like what are you expecting 

1060
00:55:43,240 --> 00:55:47,080
Bitcoin to do? 
Yeah, quick disclaimer before 

1061
00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:51,080
like, and this is first page. 
If you go to the first page of 

1062
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:53,040
Nakamoto portfolio, you see it's
written there. 

1063
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:55,760
Like, you know, I don't make 
price predictions because making

1064
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:59,040
price predictions it they, they 
are all going to be wrong. 

1065
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:01,800
So if I tell yeah, Bitcoin and 
if anybody tells like Bitcoin 

1066
00:56:01,800 --> 00:56:05,320
price is going to be at the 
$100,000 by this day, it's 

1067
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:08,720
right, just run away because 
it's, it's impossible to predict

1068
00:56:08,720 --> 00:56:12,600
the price in an asset that it's 
still super, super early and 

1069
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:15,640
it's still capturing as we just 
saw the, the monetary premium 

1070
00:56:15,640 --> 00:56:17,040
for a lot of other assets, 
right? 

1071
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:19,080
It's also true for start up, 
right? 

1072
00:56:19,080 --> 00:56:21,920
If I just started a company, I 
told you, Nico, you know, let's 

1073
00:56:22,240 --> 00:56:25,400
get the price for this company, 
the price would be zero in one 

1074
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:26,440
day. 
The next day, you know, 

1075
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:29,320
something good happens and then 
the price is 10X and the next 

1076
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:31,680
day, you know, something bad 
happens and goes back to zero, 

1077
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:33,280
right? 
So it's the same way. 

1078
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:39,680
It's the earlier an asset is the
higher volatility you're going 

1079
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:42,760
to have, right? 
Which again, think the other 

1080
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:46,560
way, the fact that we still have
volatility in Bitcoin, it's a 

1081
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:48,960
very good sign that shows that 
we are early, right? 

1082
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:54,320
If Bitcoin price was just going 
up like 5.05% everyday, very 

1083
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:57,600
stable, very predictable, I 
would know that, you know, we 

1084
00:56:57,600 --> 00:56:59,880
were close to the end of the 
cycle, right? 

1085
00:56:59,880 --> 00:57:03,000
So this is the first indication 
that I, I look and I say, Oh 

1086
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:06,080
yeah, probably did. 
It's super early, right? 

1087
00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:09,120
How quick this is going to 
happen, I don't know. 

1088
00:57:09,240 --> 00:57:11,800
Does it matter if it's going to 
be 10XA100XI? 

1089
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:14,360
Don't know also because it 
could, it could then a hundred X

1090
00:57:14,360 --> 00:57:18,520
in one year, but based on a 
dollar that it's worthless, 

1091
00:57:18,520 --> 00:57:20,360
right? 
And that doesn't mean anything, 

1092
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:23,680
right? 
I think purchasing power is 

1093
00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:26,720
going to continue to go up in 
Bitcoin terms, right? 

1094
00:57:26,720 --> 00:57:29,560
So going back to our example, I 
think that, you know, five years

1095
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:32,840
with, you know, 100,000 sets, 
you're going to be able to buy 

1096
00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:34,400
more things than you can buy 
today. 

1097
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:37,720
Quick thing also that we have, 
it's hidden there in the 

1098
00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:40,680
Nakamoto portfolio, but it's a, 
it's a fun exercise to go 

1099
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:43,960
through. 
I recreated the Big Mac index, 

1100
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:47,400
which is, you know, a 
traditional index that it's used

1101
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:52,520
for, it's down on the right 
somewhere that it's used for 

1102
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:55,760
currency. 
So they got, like I said, the 

1103
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:59,120
Economist writes, there's this 
index and they'll go to 

1104
00:57:59,120 --> 00:58:02,440
different countries and they'll 
say, OK, with what is the price 

1105
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:05,480
of one Big Mac in each of these 
countries, right? 

1106
00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:07,760
And then some of them are cheap,
some of them are, are more 

1107
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:10,360
expensive. 
So I did the same thing but with

1108
00:58:10,360 --> 00:58:13,520
Bitcoin, right? 
And you can see like it's a big,

1109
00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:16,240
big Sat index. 
So you can see where it's cheap,

1110
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:19,080
where it's more expensive. 
But then if you Scroll down, 

1111
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:23,080
there's a chart that all the way
down, just keep going down. 

1112
00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:26,800
There is a chart. 
There you go that you can 

1113
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:31,160
actually go back in time here 
there are arrows somewhere that 

1114
00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:34,960
you can go back in time and you 
can see, you know, So today this

1115
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:38,440
is the amount of, I don't forgot
how many sets, but you can just 

1116
00:58:38,520 --> 00:58:41,800
click and animate it and you see
that, you know, with time you 

1117
00:58:41,800 --> 00:58:44,600
just bought more and more Big 
Macs with the same amount of 

1118
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:47,560
sets, right? 
That trend, I don't make 

1119
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:49,720
predictions, but I can predict 
that that trend is gonna 

1120
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:51,480
continue. 
I'm gonna be able to beat more 

1121
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:53,680
Big Macs in the future than can 
buy today. 

1122
00:58:54,440 --> 00:58:58,480
Hoffa, that is a very clever way
of not making a prediction. 

1123
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:03,440
OK, All right, guys. 
There you go. 

1124
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:06,880
There's your model. 
Very, very clever. 

1125
00:59:07,800 --> 00:59:11,000
But that's absolutely awesome. 
That is so funny. 

1126
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:14,440
That's incredible, man. 
OK, OK, OK. 

1127
00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:22,360
So Hoffa, historically speaking,
Bitcoin has followed this cycle,

1128
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:25,560
right? 
Usually about 12 months to 18 

1129
00:59:25,560 --> 00:59:29,160
months after the halving, things
tend to go parabolic. 

1130
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:32,040
A lot of people are saying that 
the halving, you know, that the 

1131
00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:35,280
the cycles don't play that big 
of a deal anymore because the 

1132
00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:37,680
subsidy is not that high 
anymore. 

1133
00:59:39,080 --> 00:59:40,320
What's your take on that? 
Right. 

1134
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:44,520
A lot of people are 
anticipating, you know, 2025, 

1135
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:47,600
it's going to be a good year for
Bitcoin, especially with all the

1136
00:59:47,600 --> 00:59:50,240
things going on, on the 
institutional level, on the 

1137
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:53,760
nation state level, on the, you 
know, minor level as well. 

1138
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:56,120
You know, what are your 
expectations? 

1139
00:59:56,360 --> 00:59:59,400
And you can answer in in Big 
Macs if if you like. 

1140
01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:05,520
Yeah, Bitcoin has a weird way of
always surprising everybody to 

1141
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:07,440
the upside and to the downside, 
right? 

1142
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:11,360
Whenever you start seeing people
say, yeah, it's definitely going

1143
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:14,360
to be at the 100K by conference 
day or it's, you know, it's, 

1144
01:00:14,400 --> 01:00:18,920
it's going to go down to seven 
K, whatever it is, you know that

1145
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:22,800
it's not going to do that and it
is going to surprise one way or 

1146
01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:24,280
the other. 
I think we don't have enough 

1147
01:00:24,280 --> 01:00:26,760
data, right? 
So if we look at the cycles, 

1148
01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:29,000
right, there's basically like 2 
full cycles. 

1149
01:00:29,000 --> 01:00:31,680
They're starting the third one 
where you have good enough price

1150
01:00:31,680 --> 01:00:33,880
status. 
Take a look, it's super 

1151
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:36,920
interesting and almost, you 
know, scary to see that in the 

1152
01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:40,680
tops and the bottoms were made. 
That's I kind of like the close 

1153
01:00:40,680 --> 01:00:42,280
to the same. 
There's that charge, you know, 

1154
01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:45,200
the spiral chart of rise that 
shows that, you know, the, the, 

1155
01:00:45,280 --> 01:00:48,720
the dates are very, very close. 
So I don't know if that's a 

1156
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:52,200
coincidence or not. 
I do think that the this cycle 

1157
01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:55,520
is different, like the fact and 
I think it's going to surprise 

1158
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:58,800
with the upside because the, the
floodgates are open, right? 

1159
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:02,280
The what we were talking about 
that institutions can get very 

1160
01:01:02,280 --> 01:01:05,120
quick access Bitcoin. 
This is a game changer, I'll 

1161
01:01:05,120 --> 01:01:07,360
tell you. 
Doesn't hold on Hoffa because I 

1162
01:01:07,360 --> 01:01:09,680
heard this the other day. 
Doesn't this actually like 

1163
01:01:09,680 --> 01:01:14,760
suppress the volatility as these
institutions start to sell some 

1164
01:01:14,760 --> 01:01:17,520
of it to like their portfolios? 
I don't know what the technical 

1165
01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:21,440
term for it is, but doesn't that
cause a little bit of downward 

1166
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:24,080
cell pressure? 
No, no, because the, the, the 

1167
01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:28,280
amounts of new institutions 
coming in compared to the ones 

1168
01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:31,520
that are ready in and 
rebalancing, they're not one 

1169
01:01:31,520 --> 01:01:33,920
order of magnitude different, 
like two, probably three 

1170
01:01:33,920 --> 01:01:36,600
different, three orders of 
magnitude like you have for 

1171
01:01:36,600 --> 01:01:38,840
every institution that it's 
rebalancing and selling to 

1172
01:01:38,840 --> 01:01:41,000
rebalance at this point. 
Because you know, again, the 

1173
01:01:41,000 --> 01:01:44,520
adoption is like, think about 
it, people to talk about this, 

1174
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:47,160
they don't understand the 
addressable market of Bitcoin, 

1175
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:48,440
the addressable market to 
Bitcoin. 

1176
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:51,240
Again, it's everything. 
All of the assets that got 

1177
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:55,520
monetized through years for the 
wrong reasons, right boats are 

1178
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:58,720
it's real estate, equities, 
right bonds, all of these 

1179
01:01:58,720 --> 01:02:01,000
assets. 
This is the addressable market. 

1180
01:02:01,000 --> 01:02:04,840
As people realize that the 
amount of institutions that are 

1181
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:07,720
going to be coming in and 
putting one percent, 2%, three 

1182
01:02:07,720 --> 01:02:11,880
percent, 5% of their portfolios 
in Bitcoin, this is going to 

1183
01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:14,840
have an impact on price. 
Quite honestly, that hasn't 

1184
01:02:14,840 --> 01:02:18,360
happened yet. 
I mean, we've seen very, very 

1185
01:02:18,360 --> 01:02:21,800
early indications that some 
institutions are allocating, but

1186
01:02:22,120 --> 01:02:24,800
even if you look at the amounts 
that went into the ETFs, it's, 

1187
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:28,040
it's great, but it's, it's small
compared to the total assets 

1188
01:02:28,040 --> 01:02:29,920
under management that you have 
out there. 

1189
01:02:30,160 --> 01:02:32,680
So I don't think you know, we 
are at that stage that the 

1190
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:35,520
rebalancing of these 
institutions going to have any 

1191
01:02:35,520 --> 01:02:39,640
impact whatsoever in the price 
exactly for the things that 

1192
01:02:39,640 --> 01:02:42,360
again we, we, we just discussed.
Yeah. 

1193
01:02:42,360 --> 01:02:46,240
And, and I agree with you by the
way, I, I think, and, and again,

1194
01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:50,200
I'm, you know, my, my, my career
in 1/3 of my life has been 

1195
01:02:50,200 --> 01:02:53,280
Bitcoin. 
So I'm looking at it from that 

1196
01:02:53,280 --> 01:02:56,360
lens. 
But basically the last cycle, I 

1197
01:02:56,360 --> 01:02:58,720
feel like a lot of people have 
PTSD from it. 

1198
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:02,880
I think it was cut short because
of the China mining ban. 

1199
01:03:02,880 --> 01:03:05,960
The hash rate dropped off a 
Cliff, 50%. 

1200
01:03:06,600 --> 01:03:08,440
I thought, I think it brought 
the price down with it. 

1201
01:03:08,440 --> 01:03:11,080
It's like literally correlated 
the hash rate and the price. 

1202
01:03:12,520 --> 01:03:15,400
And then within nine months, of 
course, you know, the hash rate 

1203
01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:16,840
recovered price made an all time
high. 

1204
01:03:16,840 --> 01:03:19,960
But I feel like it kind of like 
took away a lot of the momentum.

1205
01:03:19,960 --> 01:03:23,200
Was it on purpose maybe? 
And then of course, you know the

1206
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:26,960
whole FTX debacle and stuff. 
So what I'm the general 

1207
01:03:26,960 --> 01:03:30,480
consensus here is what I'm 
seeing now is that people are 

1208
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:33,400
like, oh, 100K, you know, this 
is there. 

1209
01:03:33,400 --> 01:03:35,840
That's what I'm hearing. 
And I'm like, and then it's what

1210
01:03:35,840 --> 01:03:38,400
you said. 
Bitcoin tends to do the exact 

1211
01:03:38,520 --> 01:03:41,120
opposite of what everyone 
thinks. 

1212
01:03:41,480 --> 01:03:44,360
So no one knows. 
Like you said, if if someone 

1213
01:03:44,360 --> 01:03:46,520
tells you what's gonna happen 
with the price of Bitcoin next 

1214
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:48,640
year, they have no idea what 
they're talking about. 

1215
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:51,720
They're probably trying to sell 
you a paid trading course or 

1216
01:03:51,720 --> 01:03:53,680
something. 
But yeah, I'm. 

1217
01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:55,440
That's one point there which is 
important. 

1218
01:03:55,680 --> 01:03:59,880
Like this is the one of the 
hardest assets that I've ever 

1219
01:03:59,880 --> 01:04:05,320
seen in my career to hold 
because it's, I always say this,

1220
01:04:05,320 --> 01:04:10,200
it's months and years of pain 
and you only have days of 

1221
01:04:10,200 --> 01:04:12,760
pleasure, right? 
You're going to be happy for 

1222
01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:15,760
very short periods of time 
because price is going to go up 

1223
01:04:15,800 --> 01:04:20,280
explosively up very, very 
quickly in concentrated periods 

1224
01:04:20,280 --> 01:04:22,400
of time. 
In vast majority of the time 

1225
01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:24,280
you're going to be like now, 
which you like, you're just 

1226
01:04:24,280 --> 01:04:26,880
looking at the price like, oh, 
it's still 60 K, still 60 K. 

1227
01:04:26,880 --> 01:04:29,600
So it's not going anywhere. 
And then it goes down to 59 and 

1228
01:04:29,600 --> 01:04:32,360
you're like, damn, this thing is
not, I was wrong, right? 

1229
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:33,760
Bitcoin is not going to go 
anywhere. 

1230
01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:36,840
And then when you're almost 
giving up, right, and you're at 

1231
01:04:36,840 --> 01:04:40,240
the point of puking it out, then
it just surprises you. 

1232
01:04:40,240 --> 01:04:42,080
And then it's obvious. 
Then everybody's like, yeah, of 

1233
01:04:42,080 --> 01:04:44,760
course it was going to 250K, 
right? 

1234
01:04:44,800 --> 01:04:46,680
Of course, Like I always knew 
that. 

1235
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:48,800
And now it's going to 5 million,
right? 

1236
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:51,200
And then, of course, then they 
get screwed again and it's going

1237
01:04:51,200 --> 01:04:53,040
to continue to be like that, 
man. 

1238
01:04:53,520 --> 01:04:57,720
Yeah, no, it's it literally 
takes the path of most pain 

1239
01:04:57,800 --> 01:05:01,840
every single time. 
And man, I really enjoyed this 

1240
01:05:01,840 --> 01:05:05,560
conversation. 
Hoffa, thank you so much for 

1241
01:05:05,560 --> 01:05:08,320
joining us. 
Taking way too long for joining 

1242
01:05:08,320 --> 01:05:12,320
me on Simply Bitcoin IRL. 
It's been a pleasure and thank 

1243
01:05:12,320 --> 01:05:13,720
you so much. 
Why don't you tell everybody 

1244
01:05:13,720 --> 01:05:15,280
where they can find you on the 
interwebs? 

1245
01:05:15,640 --> 01:05:19,040
Yeah, don't, don't find me. 
I'm kidding. 

1246
01:05:19,040 --> 01:05:24,080
So Twitter, usually it's where I
am, Alpha Zeta with 2A's, it's 

1247
01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:27,280
right there on the screen so 
people can find me there and 

1248
01:05:27,280 --> 01:05:30,120
they're happy to help with any 
questions, asset, the location, 

1249
01:05:30,120 --> 01:05:33,040
whatever it is, just hit me up 
and happy to help always. 

1250
01:05:33,360 --> 01:05:34,920
Absolutely. 
And then the website you were 

1251
01:05:34,920 --> 01:05:39,400
showing off is 
nakamotoportfolio.com and you 

1252
01:05:39,400 --> 01:05:42,200
can have fun with it. 
I didn't even I think I heard 

1253
01:05:42,200 --> 01:05:45,320
about the cheeseburger thing, 
but I never really played with 

1254
01:05:45,320 --> 01:05:48,480
it. 
But anyways, Hoffa, thank you so

1255
01:05:48,480 --> 01:05:49,680
much for joining us. 
Appreciate it. 

1256
01:05:50,000 --> 01:05:51,400
Thanks Nico. 
Great being here man. 

1257
01:05:52,280 --> 01:05:54,200
Alright guys, that was another 
episode of Simply Bitcoin IRL. 

1258
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:56,560
If you guys enjoyed the show, 
smash the like button, consider 

1259
01:05:56,560 --> 01:05:59,120
subscribing if you feel like we 
provided you value, and we'll be

1260
01:05:59,120 --> 01:06:02,680
back tomorrow for the live show 
at 12:15 PM Eastern Standard 

1261
01:06:02,680 --> 01:06:03,760
Time. 
Peace out, everybody. 

1262
01:06:05,920 --> 01:06:09,720
Episode was brought to you by 
bitcoinwell.com on a mission to 

1263
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:11,000
enable independence.