Some would say that Bitcoin has been.
Perpetually stuck in the 90s like our parents.
All right, Sorry Boomer, sometimes I'm a little rough on
y'all one. Reason for this might be because
Bitcoin is bracing for a market drop.
Ahead of an announcement on December. 18th Japan is going to
raise interest rate. 75. Basis points, the last.
Time they did this, Bitcoin dumped. 20% in 12 hours.
But it could be manipulation too.
It seems kind of odd that every time we.
Have a 2 to 3%. Bump in bitcoins price we see
the amount go down by two. To 3%.
In the following 24. Every day.
Bitcoin has been dumping 2. To 3%.
At market open like clockwork. And some people.
Are pointing towards Jane St., a classic market manipulator.
Who actually owns? One of the.
Largest positions. In ibit they.
Dump the price at the. Open, reenter lower and buy
Bitcoin at a discount. This same firm has literally
been banned from the Indian stock market exchange for
manipulating. Prices Regulators.
Are seizing. Almost a billion dollars for
manipulating. Securities is Jane.
Street behind bitcoins price stagnation.
CIO Jeffrey Parker. Pro Cap.
Financial has another. Opinion, he's saying.
It's partly. Due to Bitcoin Ogs and I bid
options. Others.
Say it's because we're heading into a midterm election.
So the question is, is this normal market mechanics?
Or is this? Market manipulation and.
Should you be worried Today we're going to break this down
simply to help you. Understand what's going on
behind the scenes. This is not to cook with.
Bitcoin simply. Let's go.
It's a fact. Bitcoin dumps.
At the. Open regularly.
Consistently. And oddly. 2:00 to. 3%.
In fact. Most of.
Bitcoins gains happen after hours, after all.
It only trades for 30. Percent of the time during
normal market hours, but 70% of the time out of the market
hours. So literally.
If you just. Bought Bitcoin intraday?
Well you're making less gains. And if you just waited till the
market closed? And you bought?
It after hours. Someone is even looking at
opening an ETF to take advantage of this.
The NGHT. Or Night Bitcoin ETF.
Where it harvests the volatility that happens after.
Hours. And this could just be.
Market manipulation tactics from firms like.
Jane St. Who?
Like we said, have. Been manipulating markets in
India. And other places.
Across the world. And are starting to be fine in
band for these same activities. This sort of market arbitrage
has been. Happening behind closed doors
and we don't have the. Tools as everyday retail
investors to do this, but I recently watched a clip.
From Samir Varma. A theoretical physicist turn
hedge fund trader who. Talked about this.
Same exact opportunity. That I think could be taking
place in Bitcoin. Just from bigger players who
have. Better access to capital.
If you take, say, the S&P 500ETF SPY and you divide it up into
its day, into its intraday return open to close and it's
overnight return close to open, you will find that more than
100% of the return of the SP Y takes place overnight, IE the
the on average, the SP Y goes down during the day.
Interesting. Yeah, exactly.
But taking advantage of that is pretty difficult.
And the reason is you can certainly buy, you know, market
on open and then at least. Yeah, no, no, buy market and
close, sell, market and open. You can do that, but there's
only a limited amount that you can do.
That's the first issue before you start to move the market too
much. And the second is, of course,
that you are then subject to. The reason it's positive, of
course, is that you're getting paid for taking overnight risk.
So that's that's an example of an edge that exists in the
market that's pretty difficult to arbitrage and yet it's right
there and you can see it in the data.
Jeffrey Parks, former CIO at Bitwise.
And now CIO at Pro Cap Financial has a different opinion about
what might be going on. There's a divergent.
In how much people are willing to pay or the premium for upside
potential in Bitcoin? AKA the.
Options and spot Bitcoin and when you.
Couple this. With the fact.
That OG. Bit corners aren't.
Necessarily selling. All their Bitcoin that wouldn't
account for the selling that we're seeing in the market.
They're actually. Selling covered calls.
Meaning they want to earn income on the Bitcoin that they've
actually accumulated. Over the years.
When they sell calls, that's downward pressure.
It's monetization, but it also kills.
Momentum market makers. On the other.
Side have to hedge. This potential upside?
Scenario. And this creates.
What they call a. Reversion to the.
Mean meaning. That if Bitcoin were to go.
Too high, too fast or too low too fast?
Well, the price would. Blow out, and so they.
Hedge. When Bitcoin dips.
They buy. When Bitcoin rips.
Well, they. Sell to hedge.
Their protection? And the options interest in I.
Bit from Jeffrey. Parks article is absolutely
massive. Almost 50 billion.
Dollars, or half of the total. Assets under management in I.
Bit total this means that a lot of price action that's.
Happening in I bit in Bitcoin in general is being driven by
options and not. Actually spot buying.
That's one theory. Free market capitalism
happening. It could be.
Japan every time. Japan.
Yikes. Rates well.
Bitcoin sells off. This is called.
The unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade.
For years, investors. Borrowed cheap yen and they
plowed that into stocks, Bitcoin and other.
Assets which inflated. The asset prices.
When the. Cost of that capital goes up,
they have to. Sell that yen.
And unwind those. Leveraged positions.
Meaning they then have to. Sell.
Off the other assets to pay for their liabilities.
In the yen and Bitcoin like. Always is.
The first to. Be hit.
In global markets, when things unwind or when things change.
These are all short. Term things and what?
You should. Understand as a long term
Bitcoin investor is that these things shouldn't matter.
What you should be thinking about are the long term
structural. Advantages and opportunities
that are being presented in the market.
Listen to this clip from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.
About the structural changes. Happening in Bitcoin.
Specifically with the US government.
Is it fair to say the sophistication and the maturity
of this market has really reached a more advanced stage
now though people are more trusting in the trade ability of
these assets? 100% and I'd like to think
Coinbase has helped move that along a little bit over the last
decade, but we're in a much better place.
It's regulatory clarity emerging.
I mean, the United States government has a strategic
Bitcoin reserve now, right? Like what bigger kind of
endorsement might you have of like this is here to stay?
And then the largest financial institutions and fintech
companies in the world are all integrating crypto in some way,
shape or form, whether it's stablecoin payments or
eventually they'll be raising money on chain, you know, doing
corporate debt on chain. So I think at this point, crypto
is here to stay. And we'll look back at 2025 is
that year where the regulatory clarity finally happened?
You also. Then have to.
Listen. To what's happening.
Behind the scenes. From this clip with Michael
Saylor when he presented in the middle.
East. To Bitcoiners and people looking
to get into Bitcoin all across. The world.
Why is? Bitcoin.
Digital Capital. First of all, because Donald J
Trump is the Bitcoin president. Donald J Trump says he is intent
on making America the Bitcoin superpower, the crypto capital
of the world, the leader in digital.
Assets. And David Sachs, who works for
him in March of 2025 this year said Bitcoin is special.
Bitcoin. Is an asset without an issuer.
It is the dominant digital commodity in the world.
This administration designated Bitcoin as digital gold.
And of course, it's not just the president.
It's the vice president who I've met who said that.
It's the secretary of Treasury who I've met who has said that.
It is the head of the SEC who I've met who has said that.
It is the head of National intelligence, Tulsi governed,
who I've met who said that it's the head of commerce.
A small business. Administration Kelly Loffler,
who I've met, who said that it's Bill Pulte who runs the Federal
Housing Administration and regulates 5 trillion or $6
trillion of home. Mortgages.
Who I've met who said that it's RFK.
Who Who not that long ago wanted the US government to buy 4
million Bitcoin? Who I've met who believes it,
it's the incoming head of the CFTC, Mike Selig.
It's David Sachs himself, the cryptos are and the bitcoins
are. It's Howard Lutnick, the
commerce Secretary, and it's Kash Patel, the head of the FBI.
So you have a profound consensus amongst everyone running the
United States. And the most important thing is
that the United States is the most influential financial.
Regulator in the world and whatever.
The US banking system does and the US security market does,
ripples through South America, it ripples through Africa, it
ripples through Europe, it ripples through the Middle East.
It goes to Canada, goes to Australia, it even goes to Hong
Kong. Even the Chinese will copy what
the US is doing. So it's very, very profound
inflection. Every major.
Official and appointed. Leader in the United States
government is on board with. Bitcoin saying that.
It's a unique. Asset with.
Potential that we should capture and.
Recognize in the United States. This clip is.
Profound and if this doesn't cause you to be bullish on.
Bitcoin, then I don't know what will.
As we go any further as to why? These short term.
Price. Movements should not matter to
you and your long thesis in Bitcoin.
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You've got credit spreads at all time types, you've got the
reflation trade going on, I strongly believe PM.
Is are going higher and. For me, that means that Bitcoin
is just kind of whether it stays here between 85 and 92 for
another couple weeks when we get into the beginning part of Next.
Year I think we're going to see Bitcoin back above 100 and I
think the surprise will be back to all time highs in the 1st.
Quarter. Cody Visser has a theory as to
why he believes. That we're stuck between 85 and
92 K and what he. Sees for what's?
Coming in Q1 of 2020. Six, he believes.
That we're going to hit all time highs and I don't disagree with
him. One of the.
Reasons that long term you should be structurally bullish.
On Bitcoin is because Bitcoin. Is digital gold.
It is the. Digital version of a. 20th
century. Asset that we.
Used and relied upon for years in order to have checks and
balances. In a system that is increasingly
moving to Fiat, well. How do you?
Have checks and balances in a digital world when?
You can. Create Fiat dollars.
At infinum by pressing a button. Well, you have a digital
backstop or security. That can't be minted out of thin
air that. Requires energy.
To do so, which is. Bitcoin and This is why,
Michael. Saylor says.
That it will be. 10X1. 100 X larger than gold.
Because we're not going back from.
Digital to analog. Digital gold.
It's going to accelerate the migration of capital from
physical gold to digital gold. You know, Bitcoin lives in
cyberspace. No tariffs in cyberspace.
The big appeal of. Bitcoin is it's not physical, it
doesn't have weight. You can settle anywhere with
anybody in a few minutes. And so gold has always been too
heavy, too slow, you know, and you can't really ship it across
an ocean. And if you do, now you're
getting tariffs. So I really think it just
reminds everybody why the digital version of gold is
better than the than actual physical gold.
And, and I think it's going to catalyze a new wave of
institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin to emerge as the dominant digital monitoring
network in the world, and it is the.
The world's reserve capital, so. I think it'll grow from the 2
trillion to 20 trillion to $200 trillion over the next 20 to 30
years. I don't think gold will do that.
I think that I think that Bitcoin will be 10X bigger than
gold. One of the reasons why you
should also be. Bullish on.
Bitcoin is because. It helps us get out of debt
slavery. John Adams has a great quote.
There are two. Ways to?
Enslave a country. One with the sword and another.
With debt, we are a country laden with that.
And one of the ways that you can get out of debt is by having
assets. And increasing in.
Productivity that outpaces. Your debt an asset that inflates
faster. Than your money.
Deflates you. Short the dollar whenever you
take out the loan and you go long and whatever asset you put
into. Whether that's real.
Estate. Or in this case, Bitcoin, it's
something that you. Should be considering.
Regardless of whether. We're stuck at 90K at this
moment. We won't be.
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started with SAS mining. Thank you for joining in.
Today, regardless of what happens.
With Bitcoin, whether it's. Market manipulation.
From Jane St. Whether it's.
Options in Bitcoin OG selling. Cover calls.
You should be. Structurally long term bullish
on. Bitcoin.
This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin. Simply happy stacking.