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We get to 5% of the network 
bitcoins going to be a million a

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00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:05,080
coin. 
The supply shock is really 

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inevitable. 
There's not enough supply to eat

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00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:08,800
up a billion a week from micros 
value. 

5
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The general sentiment will flip 
from being short to being long 

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00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:14,200
and we'll have a face ripping 
rally. 

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00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:17,160
The biggest buyer in history 
just absorbed another quarter 

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00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,080
billion dollars of Bitcoin and 
the price barely moved. 

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The bears are piled into the 
most negative funding rates in 

10
00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,240
bitcoins history. 
The Cycle Bros are calling for 

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00:00:25,240 --> 00:00:28,320
one more leg down and almost no 
one is talking about the math 

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00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,040
hiding in plain sight. 
A single a curve that fits every

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00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,080
one of Michael Saylor's Bitcoin 
purchases. 

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A curve that says the supply 
shock everyone keeps waiting for

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00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:38,760
hasn't even started yet. 
My goal today is to walk you 

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00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,960
through that math, show you the 
short squeeze quietly building 

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00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:45,240
underneath the price, and 
explain why the next 18 months 

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00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,400
may break every Bitcoin cycle 
assumption you've held for the 

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00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:50,360
last decade. 
This is truth block. 

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00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,440
I'm Hurley. 
Let's mind truth. 

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00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,040
Bitcoin started the week with a 
small dip down to about $76,000.

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00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,319
About six months ago we were at 
the all time high of about 

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00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:09,000
126,000, so we're currently 39% 
off the highs. 

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Sentiment is a mixture of 
boredom and exhaustion. 

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The chart looks like a textbook 
4 year cycle drawdown right on 

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schedule. 
Earlier this morning Sailor 

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announced another buy 3273 
Bitcoin roughly $255,000,000 

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worth. 
That brings strategies total to 

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00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:30,600
818,334 coins along with last 
weeks monstrous purchase 

30
00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,400
strategy now holds more Bitcoin 
than BlackRock Spot ETF ibit 

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00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,640
that's a single corporation with
more Bitcoin than the biggest 

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spot ETF on Wall Street 
meanwhile on the other side of 

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the trade, the bears are 
absolutely stacked negative 

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00:01:43,320 --> 00:01:46,000
funding rates on binance just 
hit a three standard deviation 

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extreme the most negative print 
in bitcoin's history we've been 

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below the line for 46 days 
straight now we'll get into what

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00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,400
all this means a little bit 
later, but for now I just want 

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you to hold this picture in your
head. 

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00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,360
The largest buyer in history 
just continues to buy. 

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00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:01,720
The most leveraged short 
positioning in history is 

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00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,160
fighting it, and the price is 
doing nothing. 

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That's contradiction We're 
walking through today, and the 

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00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,720
only way to make sense of it is 
to stop staring at the price 

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00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,160
chart and start looking at the 
math underneath it. 

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00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,040
While everyone else has been 
staring at the price, Sailor has

46
00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,080
been laying out his own math. 
This clip is from his sit down 

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00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,480
with David Gochtein in December.
It's four months old, but the 

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00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,400
math hasn't changed. 
Watch how clearly he frames the 

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00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,800
ceiling. 
What I've said is, is if we get 

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to 5% of the network, bitcoins 
going to be a million a coin. 

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00:02:30,920 --> 00:02:34,320
If I get to 7 1/2% of the 
network, it'll be 10 million a 

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00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,240
coin. 
So think of it as I'm buying 

53
00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,680
something getting exponentially 
more expensive, using 

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00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,480
exponentially more money and 
where, where do we top out? 

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00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:48,320
You know, I think we top out 
between 5 and 7 1/2% and then we

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00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,080
just exponentially slow down, 
right? 

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00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:57,040
And the rest of the network is 
right now it's, you know after 

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00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:00,960
$100 billion of money from 
BlackRock and 50 billion from 

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00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,640
us, 85% of the Bitcoin is held 
by the O GS. 

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00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:08,880
After the next trillion dollars 
from the big institutions, maybe

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00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,120
it'll be 75% will be held by the
O GS. 

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00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:16,440
So it's think of us as powering 
the network up and we're pushing

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00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:21,960
against an exponentially 
hardening asset and that's the 

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way it should be. 
Look at 95% percent of the 

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00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,200
bitcoins been mined by the year 
2030. 

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00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:32,480
Five, 99% that last 1% of 
Bitcoin comes out between the 

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00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:37,320
year 2035 and the year 2140. 
It's 100 years to get the last 

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00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,240
1%. 
And so when we look at it like 

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00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:45,040
that and we will just be like 
the little engine that could, we

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00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:49,800
will keep, you know, turning the
crank, powering the network, you

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00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:53,560
know, driving up the network 
value for everybody. 

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00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:58,920
And and you know, I think that 
you can do that at least for the

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00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:00,760
next 100 years. 
I don't know what happens after 

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00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:02,400
100 years. 
I haven't worked that out yet 

75
00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:06,520
that the AI version of me will 
be will be giving interviews in 

76
00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:08,240
100 years about what we're doing
next. 

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00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:11,880
But that won't be me. 
So Saylor gave us his own model 

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00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,320
in plain language. 
He says that when strategy gets 

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00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:18,640
to 5% of the network, that gets 
us to $1,000,000 per coin. 7.5% 

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00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:21,279
gets us to 10 million. 
Then his accumulation slows 

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00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:23,000
down. 
He calls it exponentially 

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00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,080
hardening, meaning the more you 
buy, the more expensive every 

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00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,200
additional coin gets. 
Now that's not a price 

84
00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:31,120
prediction, that's a description
of what happens when a price 

85
00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:34,400
insensitive buyer pushes against
an asset with a fixed supply. 

86
00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:35,800
And here's the part that gets 
me. 

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00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,800
Strategy now holds 3.9% of all 
the Bitcoin. 

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00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,640
By Sailor's own model, he just 
needs 5% to trigger the 

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00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,600
$1,000,000 per coin. 
So either he overestimated the 

90
00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,920
price impact of his buys and he 
can therefore buy more, or will 

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00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:50,800
soon see a very sudden repricing
like Bitcoin loves to do. 

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00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:54,840
Regardless, he's giving us the 
shape of the curve, and it turns

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00:04:54,840 --> 00:04:56,680
out that shape can actually be 
drawn. 

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00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:00,440
A Bitcoin analyst on X who goes 
by the name of Plan C did 

95
00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,280
something interesting. 
He took every one of strategies 

96
00:05:03,280 --> 00:05:06,320
Bitcoin purchases and tried to 
fit them to a curve, 

97
00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,320
specifically an S curve. 
And the fit is shockingly clean.

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00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,000
The curve nails almost every one
of sailors buys. 

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00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,840
The ceiling sits at about 2.1 
million Bitcoin, roughly 10% of 

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00:05:16,840 --> 00:05:18,320
all the Bitcoin that will ever 
exist. 

101
00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,240
The inflection point, the 
steepest part of the curve where

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00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:25,640
accumulation moves fastest, hits
in early 2027 and along the way 

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00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,200
strategy crosses 1,000,000 
bitcoins sometime around 

104
00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:31,080
Thanksgiving of this year. 
Five years out, the curve has 

105
00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:34,240
them just under 2 million coins.
So the fastest accumulation 

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00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,520
phase is right now through 2028.
Now keep in mind this isn't a 

107
00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:40,560
forecast, it's a description of 
what's already happening. 

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00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:44,480
The curve isn't imagining the 
future, it's tracing 107 buys 

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00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,120
that already occurred. 
The future projection just falls

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00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,000
out of the math. 
Now Plan CS 10% ceiling is 

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00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,560
slightly more aggressive than 
Sailor's own 5 to 7.5%. 

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00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,760
So this is the bullish version. 
But the shape itself, the S 

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00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,480
curve, comes straight from the 
data. 

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00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,680
The shape is what matters. 
This is the Sailor curve. 

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00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:04,440
And the math gets reinforced 
when you listen to who else is 

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00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:06,480
saying it. 
Here's Samson Mao on Pete 

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00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,080
Rizzo's podcast. 
Watch what he does to the idea 

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00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,280
that exchanges have plenty of 
Bitcoin to sell. 

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00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:15,080
He is kind of setting the floor 
for everything. 

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00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:23,800
So his average cost is seven, 
$75,577 per BTC and with this 

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00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,080
recent downturn in the market, 
he's been able to average down, 

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00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,040
which is really insane when you 
think about it. 

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00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:35,040
The biggest holder, the biggest 
single holder entity of Bitcoin 

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00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:38,400
is able to average down and I 
think even other treasury 

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00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:40,480
companies like Metaplan are 
averaging down. 

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00:06:40,840 --> 00:06:45,160
So you kind of have to think 
that this is an anomaly. 

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00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,080
It's these are buyers of last 
resort. 

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00:06:48,280 --> 00:06:51,320
They will always buy Bitcoin. 
They're price insensitive. 

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00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:56,400
They will always buy even if 
it's 500,000 a coin or 700,000 a

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00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:59,960
coin, but people right now are 
willing to sell them Bitcoin for

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00:06:59,960 --> 00:07:04,640
60 thousand $70,000, which let's
them average down. 

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00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:06,520
And I just don't think it's 
sustainable. 

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00:07:06,840 --> 00:07:11,800
And you couple that with like 
BSTR from Adam Back, they are 

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00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:15,760
probably going to de spec in the
next month or so and they have 

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00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:19,440
$1.5 billion of capital to to 
deploy and then they're going to

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00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:23,520
be running similar strategies as
strategy to accumulate. 

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00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:28,920
So if you look at the landscape,
there is just not a lot of room 

138
00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:33,920
to wiggle. 
If you think back to say six 

139
00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,000
months ago, it doesn't seem to 
happen now, but every time 

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00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,560
Sailor would announce a buy, we 
will see a dip, right. 

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00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,160
And recent days, I think it's 
because of sustained buy 

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00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:49,320
pressure from STRC sales, but we
don't see that dip anymore. 

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00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:53,440
He announces we bought and we're
still steady at the 74,000 

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00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:57,400
something mark. 
But if you think about it, you 

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00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,800
know, even if there is the 
sailor dip after he announces 

146
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:04,240
and we go down a bit, then maybe
BSTR will buy that day too. 

147
00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:05,920
And then the next day it's 
Metaplanet. 

148
00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:08,040
And there's only so many days in
the week. 

149
00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,080
And there will be more Bitcoin 
treasury companies popping up 

150
00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,720
too. 
So I just think the supply shock

151
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:18,680
is really inevitable. 
And the the amount of Bitcoin 

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00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:20,960
available is actually lower than
most people think. 

153
00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:25,040
People think there's, you know, 
2-3 million coins on exchanges 

154
00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:29,400
ready for sale, but those are 
not coins that are meant for 

155
00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:30,800
sale. 
That is liquidity. 

156
00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:35,320
That's market makers and trading
firms and hedge funds using that

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00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,960
Bitcoin on exchange to perform 
other activities. 

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00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,880
And it is not meant to be just 
sold and never bought back. 

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00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:46,240
Two things worth double clicking
on buyers of last resort. 

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00:08:46,560 --> 00:08:49,680
Price insensitive. 
That's the operative phrase. 

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00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:54,080
Sailor will buy at $70,000. 
He'll buy at $700,000. 

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00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,600
The price doesn't change his 
behavior, and the other Treasury

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00:08:57,600 --> 00:08:59,240
companies are running the same 
playbook. 

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00:08:59,920 --> 00:09:02,960
Second, the two or three million
coins sitting on exchanges 

165
00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:06,160
aren't actually for sale. 
That's working capital for 

166
00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,920
trading firms and hedge funds. 
The real liquid float is a 

167
00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,400
fraction of that, and it's 
shrinking every quarter. 

168
00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:16,000
Strategy alone is buying 
multiples of mine supply every 

169
00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,640
week. 
The ETFs are doing the same. 

170
00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,640
The buyers are absorbing more 
Bitcoin than is being created. 

171
00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:23,680
That math just doesn't hold 
forever. 

172
00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,640
Now, the engine funding all 
these sailor buys is a preferred

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00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:30,320
stock product called STRCI. 
Did a deep dive on that one last

174
00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,560
week, so check out that video if
you haven't already. 

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00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,520
For today, just know it's real, 
it's growing fast, and it's 

176
00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:39,360
converting capital that was 
sitting in Fiat into Bitcoin 

177
00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,600
demand at a rate that didn't 
exist in any prior cycle. 

178
00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:45,120
Now listen to what Mike 
Novogratz says about what's 

179
00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:46,840
actually driving Bitcoin right 
now. 

180
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:49,280
No, you know, Bitcoin is 
interesting. 

181
00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,400
US retail has come back period, 
end of story. 

182
00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:57,720
And you see it through the 
ETETS, but mostly you see it 

183
00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:01,800
through micro strategy. 
Sailor, the Wizard of micro 

184
00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:06,160
strategy, Michael Saylor is back
and he is selling stock and he 

185
00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:10,760
is selling perpetuals and he is 
buying Bitcoin and his premium 

186
00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:16,840
is expanding, not contracting. 
What it means by now you're 130 

187
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:22,240
times NAV, his M NAV is 130 
relative to the Bitcoin he owns.

188
00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:26,320
And so he can sell micro 
strategy and make money, you 

189
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,560
know, create yield as he says 
for his investors. 

190
00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:35,760
He dilutes his new investors, 
current investors and, and 

191
00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,800
dilutes his new investors and, 
and and it's a creative to new 

192
00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:46,440
investor to old investors. 
And so it's a, a strategy that 

193
00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:52,600
he has almost, he's almost the 
only guy that actually has this 

194
00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:55,040
strategy built in. 
You know, he had all these other

195
00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,320
dats that tried it. 
They all traded discounts. 

196
00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:04,520
But but Michael has managed to 
create this cult of people that 

197
00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:10,240
trust him and, and that by micro
strategy as their Bitcoin proxy,

198
00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:12,960
they buy it as micro strategy 
and it's working. 

199
00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:15,680
And that is, I mean, he bought 2
1/2 billion dollars of Bitcoin 

200
00:11:15,680 --> 00:11:18,160
last. 
There's not enough supply to eat

201
00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,600
up a billion a month from my a 
billion a week from Michael 

202
00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:22,520
Schaller. 
The bears can argue about 

203
00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,600
timing, but the math is settled.
So back to the bears for a 

204
00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:27,240
second. 
When you trade Bitcoin with 

205
00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:29,400
leverage, you're not trading 
actual Bitcoin. 

206
00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,560
You're trading a contract called
a perpetual future. 

207
00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,920
To keep that contract tracking 
spot, exchanges run a small 

208
00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,520
payment between longs and shorts
every 8 hours. 

209
00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,680
If there's more longs than 
shorts, then longs pay shorts. 

210
00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:45,000
If there's more shorts than 
longs, then shorts pay longs. 

211
00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,960
Right now shorts are paying 
longs at the most negative rate 

212
00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,320
in bitcoins entire history and 
we've been negative for 46 days 

213
00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:53,440
straight. 
So many bears are piling in that

214
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,280
they're bleeding about 5% 
annualized just to hold the 

215
00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,440
position open. 
This is people paying interest 

216
00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,680
to bet against Bitcoin while 
Sailor is buying multiples of 

217
00:12:01,680 --> 00:12:04,920
mine supply every week. 
So why would one do this? 

218
00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,880
Presumably because they believe 
the four year cycle script. 

219
00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,360
They think another leg lower is 
coming on schedule. 

220
00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:13,680
The leverage is cheap, the 
conviction's high, the cycle's 

221
00:12:13,680 --> 00:12:17,800
paid off 4 times in a row. 
So they pile in and every day 

222
00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,160
they bleed. 
Jeff Park posted the funding 

223
00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,880
rates chart yesterday and said 
quote, I would not want to be 

224
00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:25,760
short Bitcoin here. 
I agree, I wouldn't either. 

225
00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,480
This is the cleanest setup for a
short squeeze we've had all 

226
00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:30,400
cycle. 
The biggest buyer in history 

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absorbing supply daily shorts, 
paying record premiums. 

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On the other side, a derivatives
market five times the size of 

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spot. 
When sentiment flips, the move 

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is going to be violent. 
Which brings us to sailors. 

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Read on the same dynamic. 
I think that the price action is

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choppy and sideways and, and you
know, when you talk to people, 

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they say the market's really 
being driven in the near term by

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the derivatives traders. 
And you know, the derivatives 

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market, the perpetuals is 5X 
bigger than the spot market. 

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And so if a guy wants to put a 
billion dollars up and go 50X 

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leverage short or 50X levered 
long, then that trader controls 

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the price for the day because 
it's a lot of leverage. 

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And you know, it's a global 
market and 80, you know, people 

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talk, they, they like to talk 
about the corporations, but at 

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the end of the day, 85% of the 
Bitcoin is held by not 

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corporations. 
Nobody knows who owns it. 

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And those crypto native O GS, 
they're using the crypto 

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exchanges and crypto derivatives
to get liquidity. 

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And so you got $1.7 trillion 
worth of people with capital 

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that could lever it 10 or 20 to 
1 and they decide what they're 

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going to do, you know, above my 
pay grade. 

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I think at some point, you know,
the, the general sentiment will 

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flip from being short to being 
long and we'll have a face 

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ripping rally. 
NI just can't tell you when. 

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Sailor says it as cleanly as 
anyone can. 

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The derivatives market is five 
times the size of spot. 

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One whale with a billion dollars
and 50X leverage runs the price 

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for the day. 
That's the market we're in. 

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00:14:03,560 --> 00:14:06,000
And right now it's full of 
shorts paying record premiums to

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short an asset whose biggest 
buyer just won't stop buying. 

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Nobody can tell us when 
sentiment flips, but Sailor 

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keeps buying through it. 
And when those shorts get 

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00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:16,240
squeezed and the supply isn't 
there to give them an exit, 

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that's the face ripping rally 
he's describing. 

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00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:20,840
And he's describing it because 
he's the one quietly engineering

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the floor underneath it. 
Now let's talk about the four 

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year cycle dogma. 
For 15 years, the halving cycle 

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has run. 
Bitcoin halving compresses, 

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00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:32,760
supply narrative builds, retail 
piles in, euphoric blow off top 

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occurs, and then an 80% 
drawdown. 

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Repeat. 
Honestly, I thought the cycle 

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was already broken six months 
ago. 

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Clearly I was wrong about the 
timing. 

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00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:43,680
Price dumped right on the 
calendar, everyone was watching 

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00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:45,440
and many people got caught flat 
footed. 

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So why did the dump come right 
on schedule? 

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Was that the cycle working or 
was that everyone front running 

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00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,000
a move that no longer has 
structural force behind it? 

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00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:55,560
Because if it was self 
fulfilling, that's not the 

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00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:57,640
cycle. 
That's just human expectations 

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00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,600
clearing themselves out, and the
Halving's actual supply impact 

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00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,000
today is essentially nothing. 
Bitcoin mines about 450 coins a 

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00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,760
day. 
Sailor bought 3273 just last 

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00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,440
week. 
Whatever is left of the four 

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00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,960
year cycle is psychological, not
structural, and it's fighting a 

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00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:13,760
market that's been different 
from day one. 

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00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:15,200
I mean just look at the 
receipts. 

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00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:17,720
This was the first cycle to hit 
an all time high before the 

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00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,920
halving, The first with spot 
ETFs absorbing retail demand on 

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00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,760
the way up, and the first with a
public corporation passing the 

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00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:25,440
largest spot ETF and Bitcoin 
held. 

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00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:29,440
The bears are running 2017 plays
against a 2026 market. 

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00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:31,240
And I get it. 
The pull to treat it like every 

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00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,680
cycle before it is real. 
We've been trained for it. 

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00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,720
Every cycle ended with a Cliff. 
So we wait. 

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00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,120
We sit on cash, we tell 
ourselves we'll buy lower. 

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00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,160
But this time the supply isn't 
there. 

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00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,640
The shorts are at historic 
extremes and when that breaks, 

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00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:47,160
you don't get time to 
reposition. 

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00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,520
I argue the four year cycle 
isn't gone, but it's being 

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00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:51,960
absorbed by something much 
bigger. 

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00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,320
I think the Sailor curve is the 
new cycle. 

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00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,960
And here's the kicker, as 
Sailors accumulation curve 

300
00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,440
approaches it's ceiling, the 
price has to do something 

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00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:01,200
violent. 
Just run the math. 

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00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:03,840
Strategy is at 3.9% of all 
Bitcoin. 

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00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:08,560
Sailor says 5% triggers 
$1,000,000 a coin, 7.5% triggers

304
00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,840
10 million. 
He's already 80% of the way to 

305
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,080
the first number. 
So either Sailor wildly 

306
00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,240
overestimated his own price 
impact and you can keep buying 

307
00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,200
without the price responding, or
Bitcoin's going to do what 

308
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:23,320
Bitcoin loves to do, sit 
quietly, bore you to death, and 

309
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,480
then suddenly and violently 
reprice. 

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00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,280
Because the curve is 
constrained, Sailor cannot keep 

311
00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,560
buying at $76,000 forever. 
Eventually the price has to move

312
00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,600
up and clear the supply. 
So either it grinds higher into 

313
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,560
the buyer, or it gaps higher 
when the leverage breaks and the

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00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,320
float disappears. 
That's the dynamic plan C's 

315
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,000
chart is showing us without 
saying it. 

316
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,240
Sailor's accumulation S curve is
determining the price. 

317
00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:48,240
As the top of his curve 
approaches, the steep part of 

318
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,440
the price curve has to follow 
the two curves. 

319
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:54,040
Stack his accumulation peaks and
the price S curves up. 

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00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,240
That is the new cycle. 
And this only works with 

321
00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,480
Bitcoin. 
No other asset has a fixed 

322
00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,240
supply. 
Draw this curve against the 

323
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,360
dollar. 
They print more gold. 

324
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,319
They mine more stocks, they 
issue more shares. 

325
00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:09,160
Bitcoin's the first asset in 
history where demand meets a 

326
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,680
truly fixed supply, and the 
result is a clean, predictable 

327
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,480
curve. 
It's not magic, it's physics, 

328
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:17,640
and that's what Sailor means 
when he says Bitcoin is 

329
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,160
exponentially hardening. 
So put it all together. 

330
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,400
The Sailor curve is in the 
steepest part of its 

331
00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,119
accumulation phase. 
Strategy is absorbing supply 

332
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,680
daily shorts are at historic 
extremes. 

333
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:31,800
A derivatives market five times 
the size of spot, a supply shock

334
00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:33,960
everyone's been waiting for 
hasn't even started yet. 

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00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,560
It's been delayed by leverage 
and leverage is finite. 

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00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,640
But now I want to hear from you.
Do you think the four year cycle

337
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,080
is dead, dying, or still running
this market? 

338
00:17:43,360 --> 00:17:48,200
Where does Sailor actually top 
out 5 percent, 7.5 percent, 10%?

339
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,840
If Bitcoin finishes 2026 in the 
green, does that settle the 

340
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,800
cycle debate or do the Cycle 
Bros get one more shot? 

341
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:56,640
Leave your thoughts in the 
comments below. 

342
00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,200
And if this episode helps see 
what's happening underneath the 

343
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,200
price hit like share it with 
somebody who's still waiting for

344
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,920
that next leg lower. 
And don't forget to subscribe to

345
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,480
the Simply Bitcoin channel so 
you don't miss the next one. 

346
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:09,480
Thanks for watching and we'll 
see you Thursday.