1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,640 Whales are selling. There are OG whales that are 2 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:04,480 selling. I guess anything is possible. 3 00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:06,880 The US government is extremely large does. 4 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:09,360 The US government still have that Bitcoin. 5 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:11,560 What's going on there? Not every coin that the US 6 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:14,640 government may or may not control at the moment is. 7 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,440 Did they sell the Bitcoin? Looking at the addresses in 8 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:21,000 various cases and then we look at that address, see that it 9 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:23,360 moved to a new place and now it's just Long story short, I 10 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,080 don't know what to tell you like people like you know, this is 11 00:00:26,080 --> 00:00:29,360 what drives so many to look for the next Bitcoin, right and and. 12 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,280 The most bullish cycle ever bro like. 13 00:00:32,759 --> 00:00:35,240 Feels like, you know, the beginning of a true, like second 14 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:37,800 or third act for Bitcoin. Your life won't be better than 15 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,480 your parents, that you may never, you know, reach the 16 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,840 American Dream. And as far as I'm aware, there 17 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:47,760 have never been centralized companies with publicly listed 18 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:51,560 equities whose sole purpose is to use leverage and dilution to 19 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:55,080 acquire a commodity. They're safer than IC OS in that 20 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:56,880 sense. The amount of people that are 21 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:00,440 taking self custody is actually going on a downward trend. 22 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:05,120 Should people buy be buying spot Bitcoin these days if 23 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:11,480 MicroStrategy is going to outperform if yeah, welcome to 24 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:13,600 another episode of simply Bitcoin IRL. 25 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:14,840 Today I have a very special guest. 26 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:19,520 I have the head of firm firm wide research, Alex Thorne in 27 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:21,000 the house. How you doing, Alex? 28 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:22,640 I'm great, Nico. Good to be here, man. 29 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:25,800 Good to be back. Just an exciting time. 30 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:27,960 It continues to be exciting. You know, I don't know, I guess 31 00:01:27,960 --> 00:01:32,440 say this every time, but this market gets weirder and weirder. 32 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,240 Bro, it's so weird. I mean, this cycle, you know 33 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,560 what I've been saying? I've been saying that like this 34 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,080 cycle from like a price action from a from a news perspective 35 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:45,520 has been the most bullish cycle ever, bro. 36 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:49,400 Like the president is like, hey, look, I own, you know, I'm like 37 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:51,160 one of the biggest treasury companies now. 38 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:52,960 You know, he's saying like I want to make Bitcoin. 39 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,840 I want to make, you know, the United States a Bitcoin capital 40 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:57,880 of the world. Like it's all the stuff like all 41 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,720 the treasury companies sailors like taking over finance, 42 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,080 creating his own central bank and then the price action is 43 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:06,240 like. I agree. 44 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,520 I mean insane levels like billions being raised and 45 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:14,800 deployed and seeing ETF flows. But I mean you are seeing whales 46 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:16,880 are selling. There are OG whales that are 47 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,160 selling, you know, people. Who are they? 48 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,720 Are those way I don't know. I think you know one of the the 49 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,200 whales that recently moved these 80K coins. 50 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,760 I think Sani is one of the best. You know, from time chain index, 51 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,880 one of the better Bitcoin on chain analysts said it's one of 52 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:34,440 the last 10,000 BTCUTX OS that's not attributed. 53 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:38,480 So you know, maybe we're through the whale unknown whale era. 54 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:42,640 Maybe it's now those guys, if they're cashing out, they're 55 00:02:42,640 --> 00:02:48,960 cashing out into MicroStrategy or ETFs or Metaplanet or CEP or 56 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,160 all right, you have a whole new, IT feels like, you know, the 57 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,440 beginning of a true like second or third act for Bitcoin now, 58 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:59,240 like it's a whole different scale and, and type of market 59 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:03,560 participant 100. Percent and the the price action 60 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,120 reflects that right. You can see that it's 61 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:10,440 institutional money buying, it's smart money buying. 62 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,080 It's not retail because you don't see these kind of 63 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,360 parabolas like kind of, you know, mania phase. 64 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,760 Yeah, perhaps we haven't reached there yet, but it's been this 65 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:20,880 like kind of slow trickle, right? 66 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:25,000 They don't want the price to go up 20% when they're buying half 67 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,320 a billion dollars, right? So, you know, I I think they're, 68 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,120 they're deploying it strategically. 69 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:31,760 Now. I don't know if you saw that 70 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,480 post by Willy Woo, but Willy Woo, you know, very famous 71 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:38,960 analyst in the community and he basically, I don't know if he 72 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:42,920 was trolling or, you know, boating accident, lol. 73 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,000 But you know, you basically said I don't, I don't have any 74 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,760 Bitcoin right now. You know, there's more return 75 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,680 potential in investing in Bitcoin startups. 76 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,400 And that leads me to my question, which is like, should 77 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:57,760 people buy, be buying spot Bitcoin these days? 78 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:01,160 If MicroStrategy is going to outperform, if Metaplan, it's 79 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,360 going to outperform. Like if you're a traditional 80 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:07,360 investor, you know, if you see what MicroStrategy has done over 81 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,960 the last 24 months, you know, what would you tell them? 82 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:15,880 I would say that you need to own Bitcoin in terms of buying it as 83 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:17,839 an investment. I think you always have to be 84 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:21,360 reconsidering your theses. I think there's an easy 10 85 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:25,520 bagger here in Bitcoin still over the next, you know, 5 to 10 86 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,640 years. I don't think that's crazy at 87 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:28,800 all. When you look at things like 88 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:33,240 gold parody or you know, obviously like the supreme 89 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:36,040 scarcity that that is only getting more scarce. 90 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:42,320 It's transition in a multi polar like sort of geopolitically more 91 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,400 complicated world. I think it will transition more 92 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:49,720 into a gold like asset, but that also means people will probably 93 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,800 start to get more gold like returns rather than, you know, 94 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,800 the, you know, 10,000 X that you got when you invested in the 95 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:58,880 crazy Internet money that no one had ever heard of, right? 96 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,320 I mean, it's maturing. This is sort of natural. 97 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,720 I do think like, look, if you, if you, you know, savvy 98 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:08,440 investors want to beat an index, right, whether that's the S&P, 99 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:12,320 if you're an active say equity hedge fund manager or something 100 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,280 else, I think it's reasonable for professional investors to 101 00:05:15,280 --> 00:05:17,240 try to beat the price of Bitcoin. 102 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,040 I don't think most people will long term. 103 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,880 If you look at its, you know, compounding will growth rate 104 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:25,680 over many years, it's hard to beat that. 105 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:29,000 It's certainly hard to beat it with like index funds, but I do 106 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,000 fundamentally think there was a large amount of upside left in 107 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:36,480 BTC before it becomes a gold like widely adopted asset. 108 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,040 But but even beyond that, if you're not an investor, if 109 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,640 you're a person, whether that's a legal person like an entity or 110 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:49,320 an individual, you need to own Bitcoin yourself because you 111 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,760 can't, you know, you get no censorship resistance buying 112 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,240 shares in a treasury company. You can't send it or use it, 113 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,400 can't send it cross-border. You can't hold it in a multi 114 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:59,400 sig. There's this the actual features 115 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:03,360 of actual Bitcoin are unfortunately not replicatable 116 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,360 by treasury companies, right. Those are equities. 117 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:10,000 You own shares in a company that itself does something in in the 118 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,880 case of, you know, something like strategy that something is 119 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,680 own and acquire more Bitcoin, but you you don't have access to 120 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:18,200 that Bitcoin. You can never withdraw that 121 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:22,560 Bitcoin and recall like that you to get the full feature set from 122 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,560 Bitcoin, you actually have to not only own it directly own 123 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:27,920 spot Bitcoin, but own, you know control the keys to it. 124 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:31,320 So I, I would encourage everyone to build a stack so that you 125 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,760 have that lifeboat freedom money that Bitcoin is so famous for 126 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:37,120 providing. And then I think from an 127 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:40,560 investment standpoint, every savvy investor is always 128 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,640 reconsidering their theses and what they own. 129 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,200 And is there something better to own? 130 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,400 You know, the most aggressive investors will look at 131 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:51,600 something, let's say they make 50% in a year, but but there was 132 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:55,240 another bet that they could have looked at or passed on that made 133 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,520 75% in the year. A lot of the most aggressive 134 00:06:57,520 --> 00:06:59,800 investors will be upset with themselves for that, right? 135 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:03,160 So there may or may not always be a better investment, but if 136 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,600 in my mind, from a risk return standpoint, Bitcoin is still a 137 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,840 very good investment even at these levels from, you know, 119 138 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:14,200 K. Yeah, and and and let's you said 139 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:17,320 something really interesting. I kind of want to double back 140 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:21,160 and focus on that aspect, which is, you know, the fact that you 141 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:26,320 still see, you know, this 5 to 10 X opportunity within the 142 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:30,080 decade. But I mean, like compared to 143 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:34,360 Bitcoin's early days, you know, that's, that's not really that 144 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:37,360 exciting. You know, me and my Co host and 145 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:39,760 we, we host simply Bitcoin every single day. 146 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,160 I mean, like every weekday. And we're like kind of joking 147 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:44,360 around. We're like, dude, are we just 148 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,800 like cheering on like gold and the SNP? 149 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:51,120 Cause that's what the price action movement feels like. 150 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:56,120 So, you know, I think a lot of people that are getting into 151 00:07:56,120 --> 00:08:00,080 Bitcoin recently, you know, they're, I don't think they, 152 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,360 they see it as much. I don't think they see the, the 153 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:07,160 upside as much as, you know, perhaps in the, you know, when I 154 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:12,120 got into the 20/16/2017 era or you know that even the 2021 era 155 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,880 was, you know, I think we got like A5 or 6X in a year. 156 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:17,840 So what are your thoughts on that? 157 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,920 This is what winning looks like, I guess is what I would say. 158 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:29,040 Look, I mean the S&P 500 is up 13.1% year to date in 2025 on 159 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:33,000 July 22nd. Bitcoin is up year to date. 160 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:37,320 Sorry, that was one year. It's up 6.8% year to date. 161 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:42,480 The S&P 500 year to date in July 25 bitcoins up 27% year to date. 162 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:46,680 So I mean, you're looking at something to get those, you 163 00:08:46,680 --> 00:08:49,680 know, 10,000 X like, well, I'm sorry, you and I shouldn't have 164 00:08:49,680 --> 00:08:52,960 been playing Halo in 2010. We shouldn't have been playing 165 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,200 counter Strike, right? And I mean, it's I don't know 166 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,400 what to tell you. Like people like, you know, this 167 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,280 is what drives so many to look for the next Bitcoin, right? 168 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:05,440 And, and you know, low, but like Bitcoin was a low cap untested, 169 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:11,200 you know, like the tiny little thing in back then to get those 170 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,320 games, you had to have significant vision and still 171 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:16,240 pretty good size. Like, I mean, I, I bought 172 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:20,760 Bitcoin pretty early in 2012 and 2013, I think, and I didn't 173 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:22,560 really have any money. I didn't buy a lot of Bitcoin. 174 00:09:22,560 --> 00:09:24,840 Even if I still had those Bitcoin, which I don't would 175 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:28,680 because I sold them at some point back then, it still 176 00:09:28,680 --> 00:09:30,280 wouldn't be the games. I mean, you'd have to either be 177 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:34,960 mining as a true hobbyist before there were any tutorials or or 178 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,880 anything at all in the community was a couple 100 people or you 179 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:41,880 had to put pretty sizable money in for an average person and 180 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,920 hold it for 1415 years, right. I mean, it's there's a very 181 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,440 small number of people that fit that category. 182 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,880 Like, and I I think the stories of them, they drive people to 183 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:54,040 look for these penny stocks that can thousand X. 184 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,600 You know, you see people say, well, it's $0.10, but if it goes 185 00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:00,760 to $10, well, yeah, OK. That that's always been true. 186 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:03,880 Very tiny number of people ever hit a return like that in their 187 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:05,600 lives, right. I think the vast majority of 188 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:10,120 people should be looking for good investments that go up with 189 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:13,040 a variety of risk profiles, right? 190 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:14,640 And you can take a big risk if you want. 191 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,760 That's fine. But you know, there is, I think 192 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:21,320 part of the reason that is particularly younger people 193 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:24,600 these days are looking for these astronomical gains. 194 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,680 It stems partially from a deep malaise in the economy among 195 00:10:28,680 --> 00:10:32,760 these younger generations that that, you know, a sense that our 196 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:35,640 lives will not be as good as our parents lives, that we won't 197 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:39,280 make as much money. The average age of a home buyer, 198 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:42,880 the median age I think is 39 now in the United States versus 199 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:46,240 something like the 20s, you know, couple decades ago that 200 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:48,760 that your life won't be better than your parents, that you may 201 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:52,040 never, you know, reach the American dream. 202 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:58,160 And in that spot, too many, I think are enticed by gambling. 203 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,240 Look at the rise of sports gambling is a great example. 204 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:05,880 These low cap longshot bets. They would rather gamble and 205 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:10,160 and, you know, risk it all to to get it all because the idea of 206 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,800 long term investing and hard work just doesn't seem fair in 207 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,240 the way the economy has become constructed, right? 208 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:22,000 Decades of crony capitalism and you know, you know, bailouts and 209 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:25,240 money printing have led people to gamble rather than learn 210 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,040 about saving and hard work and the savings technology that is 211 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:29,440 Bitcoin. I think that's where a lot of, 212 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:35,880 you know, low cap crypto gambling in the trenches stems 213 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:37,920 from. Is this deep seated malaise 214 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:39,480 among millennials and Gen. Z? 215 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:44,760 This, not this nihilism just based on the fact that they got 216 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:49,000 the short end of the stick, you know, 2008, you know, they don't 217 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,120 have the opportunity to their parents have. 218 00:11:52,560 --> 00:11:55,240 And you know, they're they're looking for a quick way out, 219 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:58,880 right? Yeah, that's a very fantastic, 220 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:00,800 fantastic point. Another thing I wanted to bring 221 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,240 up to your attention to Alex, which is I don't know if you saw 222 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,520 this chart, but another thing that worries me a little bit 223 00:12:06,560 --> 00:12:11,120 with the rise of all this institutional, institutional 224 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:15,840 money coming in is I don't know if you saw this chart, but 225 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:20,280 essentially the amount of people that are taking that is taking 226 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,320 self custody is actually going on a downward trend. 227 00:12:23,680 --> 00:12:25,200 It's not going on an upward trend. 228 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:29,120 And this wasn't the case until the introduction of the ETFs in 229 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:32,200 January of 2024. And then of course, the 230 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:36,680 MicroStrategy stocks, right? What's your take on that? 231 00:12:36,680 --> 00:12:44,840 Because I think like if, if most Bitcoin is not held in self 232 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,200 custody or at least transparent custody, where you know, El 233 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:50,760 Salvador, you can see their reserve, Tether, you can see 234 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,400 their reserve. I think you, I think the risk of 235 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,680 paper Bitcoin starts to increase over time. 236 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:00,360 And there's also a tremendous amount of centralization of 237 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,120 custody of Bitcoin. A lot of it is in Coinbase. 238 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,800 I think it's like 9 or 10 out of whatever ETFs. 239 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:07,440 They all have their Bitcoin with Coinbase. 240 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,240 I think Sailor has his Bitcoin with Coinbase, so it creates a 241 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,720 honey, honey, honey pot. And then not only that, like, 242 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:16,800 you know, do they really have the big one? 243 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,600 They say they do, right? So what's your take on that? 244 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:23,400 Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, I think that look, but 245 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,920 the highest level, I don't think it technical technologically 246 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:30,120 matters. They're proof of work coins like 247 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,160 Bitcoin. The Who holds the asset and 248 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,480 where it is doesn't necessarily determine or directly determine 249 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:37,680 governance control over the network the way it does in a 250 00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:41,240 proof of stake asset. But you know, a couple points 251 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,560 you were making. I mean, when it comes to people 252 00:13:43,560 --> 00:13:49,360 holding large amounts of coins in centralized entities, 253 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,840 institutional entities, whether it's BlackRock or Fidelity or 254 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,560 Invesco or Strategy or Metaplanet or whatever these 255 00:13:54,560 --> 00:13:59,640 things are, they do have some influence over the network. 256 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,320 You could imagine in the case of a contentious hard fork, they, 257 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:05,520 you know, have have some amount of what we call fork choice 258 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,440 selection, right? They could say, you know, 259 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,120 BlackRock were to say, let's say there was a fork, another, you 260 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:12,280 know, block size war or something. 261 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,440 They could say, listen, guys, us and all our investors in our 262 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,920 fund, we're going to consider, you know, fork XYZ, the real 263 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,080 Bitcoin like that, that could be very impactful. 264 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:25,400 And it it does matter, but it's it's a sort of intangible, It's 265 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:29,560 a soft form of power. They can't directly tell 266 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:31,920 everyone upgrade the way that you could if you controlled an 267 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:33,480 enormous amount of a proof of stake network. 268 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:38,280 I do think it's sad to see that self custody isn't on the rise. 269 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,520 I mean, this is a core feature of Bitcoin in my opinion. 270 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:45,000 This is holding your own keys gives you self sovereignty. 271 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,400 It it distinguishes it from all forms of digital money that 272 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,880 exist, even stable coins under the new genius Act, which was 273 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,440 just signed into law, which I think they they are an 274 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,880 innovation on digital dollars because you can't even self 275 00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:03,600 custody, you know, digital dollars say you have to use a 276 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,800 banking app or a fintech app or there's no way to like take self 277 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,480 custody and you can take self custody of the stable coins. 278 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,960 But of course, those are freeze freezable and feasible by the 279 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,680 issuer, either at the direction of the government or anyone else 280 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:18,960 or themselves, whereas Bitcoin is not. 281 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,280 So Bitcoin is that ultimate step of digital sovereignty. 282 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:23,880 And you only get it if you hold your own keys. 283 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:26,480 It's never been easier to hold your own keys. 284 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,640 So it is sad to to show the improvement in the UX of self 285 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,440 custody. It's still that we have had over 286 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,160 many years. It's much, much easier today 287 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:38,840 than it was two years ago, 5-10 years ago to see it, you know, 288 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,720 but with real capital and entering a lot of you know what, 289 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,880 not just institutional investors, but a lot of you 290 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,040 know, older people that have brokerage accounts or investors 291 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,400 and invest in other things that want some exposure to Bitcoin. 292 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:55,760 The ETFs are so easy, like the UX for an an existing investor 293 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,520 in things to buy the ETFs is better than buying spot and 294 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:03,680 sending it to self custody. So I, I, I, one of the things I 295 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,960 hope is that you'll see the brokerage firms, especially in 296 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,720 the, in the big banks, especially as we get more 297 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:13,840 clarity out of the US federal government's treatment of 298 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:17,000 digital assets broadly see them start to offer more spot 299 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,120 products so that it actually becomes possible. 300 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,560 Fidelity offers spot Bitcoin, but you can't yet withdraw. 301 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,040 And I'm I'm certain that they will eventually add the 302 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:26,360 withdrawal. It's kind of like the pathway. 303 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,480 These often go right, Robin Hood and PayPal both started with you 304 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,400 can buy and sell, but you can't withdraw yet. 305 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,240 And then maybe if it is still easy for mom and pop or 306 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,680 institutional investor to buy spot through their existing 307 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,960 brokerage relationship, they can then also learn about self 308 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,040 custody and they may realize, you know, I think you're going 309 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,240 to have Bitcoin in sort of every everywhere that you have money 310 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,120 and investment. So you're going to have, you 311 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:52,040 know, bank Bitcoin. You might have 4O1K Bitcoin. 312 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:53,760 You know, if in, you know, retirement fund Bitcoin, you 313 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:57,080 might have brokerage account Bitcoin and and what I hope is 314 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,280 that people learn and at least have some, you know, under the 315 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:02,440 mattress Bitcoin, right, at least some. 316 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,000 You should always have some that's that's actually using the 317 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,880 network. And I get that, you know, for 318 00:17:08,079 --> 00:17:12,000 people in the Bitcoin community on on on X or, you know, at at 319 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,280 conferences, like it's sacrilegious in some cases to 320 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:17,839 not store your own keys or even run your own node. 321 00:17:17,839 --> 00:17:22,640 But if you want, you know, for Bitcoin to to win and reach the 322 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,720 promised land of wide adoption, you're going to have Bitcoin in 323 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,800 every every possible way that it could exist. 324 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:32,280 So it's on us, as you know, influencers, educators, 325 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,680 researchers to continue explaining the benefit of self 326 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,320 custody and that that, by the way, includes to the 327 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:40,880 institutions, right. You talked about, you know, 328 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,840 micro strategy, not doing proof of reserves, like not only 329 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:45,280 should they do proof of reserves, but they should 330 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:47,520 probably custody their own coins at some point. 331 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,480 And I would think any governments has decide to have 332 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,120 strategic reserves should also be self custodying as well. 333 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,280 Yeah, absolutely. And then self custody and making 334 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,000 the reserves public, like making that address public, there's no 335 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,000 reason as to why you shouldn't be doing that. 336 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,640 And that also builds a great deal of trust and it's taking 337 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,680 advantage of of the open Ledger system. 338 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,440 Like this is this is where gold failed, right? 339 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,680 You know, we, we have to take, I'm not saying it's not there, 340 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,960 but we have to take the government's word for it that, 341 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,080 you know, all that gold is at Fort Knox, right? 342 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,480 You know, it's like trust me, Bureau kind of system where, you 343 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,840 know, we have this open Ledger protocol where you don't have to 344 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:28,720 do that anymore. Question for you, Alex, are the 345 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,600 cycles dead? Is is, you know, is or is it 346 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,640 just evolving now that, you know, bitcoins definitely grown 347 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:37,480 up. It's definitely it heading into 348 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,760 the institutional era. Are these traditional four year 349 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,880 cycles that we've seen throughout Bitcoin's lifetime? 350 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,680 You know, are they still in tax? Good topic everyone's been 351 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:51,240 talking about. I think back until last winter 352 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,480 when the ETFs launched, I think a lot of people, you see the 353 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:59,240 passive flows in the ETFs and, and, and how they unlock capital 354 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:02,160 had a lot of people wondering that. 355 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:06,920 And I, I, I think, I think there is some truth that the cycles 356 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:08,920 will not look the same as they did in the past. 357 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:13,960 I think that is right. I, I think there will always be 358 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,200 business cycles in credit and, and monitor as long as it 359 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,160 certainly as long as we have Fiat currencies, you know, 360 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,960 there's always credit expansion and credit retraction. 361 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,960 And, and that is also sort of a natural human tendency. 362 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,240 We tend to get really excited, do a bunch of stuff or make much 363 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,240 of investment or build a bunch of things and then we usually 364 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,680 get over our skis a little bit and then have to pull it back 365 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,560 and then everybody calms down again. 366 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,920 And then you got right like that's kind of a natural human 367 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,720 behavior even outside of economies, like, you know, even 368 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,680 working on your house or buying, working on your car, whatever it 369 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:47,840 is like we tend to sort of overdo it and then pull it back 370 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:50,720 and then get comfortable again. So we will have cycles. 371 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,680 I just don't think that, you know, obviously, to the extent 372 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,040 that that cycles were driven by Bitcoin issuance, right? 373 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:01,040 The having cycle, I don't think those really matter that I don't 374 00:20:01,120 --> 00:20:05,320 think they really probably have mattered for at least maybe one, 375 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,440 but maybe even 2 having cycles cause. 376 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,240 Right in an in an absolute basis, the production and net 377 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:14,640 Bitcoin instruments daily or weekly monthly, yearly, whatever 378 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,200 time for me to look at is so minimal at this point compared 379 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:21,880 to the daily transacted volume on the network or the traded 380 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:26,480 volume globally on exchanges and OTC as to be basically, you know 381 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:30,360 unimportant, right. So I don't think it's would be 382 00:20:30,360 --> 00:20:34,080 driven by the having, I do think that you get people who take 383 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:38,040 gains, then they look with those gains for the next investment. 384 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,880 And so the intra crypto cyclicality, right where it used 385 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,280 to be like Bitcoin all time high December 2017, ether all time 386 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:49,000 high January 2018, a bunch of low cap all coins did stuff and 387 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,760 then everything you know, goes to 0, not just Bitcoin didn't go 388 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,880 to 0, but most other things did. And then you restart that. 389 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:59,120 I, I think that still happens in microcosms in this market. 390 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,360 You, you've kind of had it the last couple weeks with ether 391 00:21:02,360 --> 00:21:05,480 running, you know, 30% last week alone. 392 00:21:07,120 --> 00:21:10,080 But I still don't think that you're going to, I think those 393 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,680 are all so dampened. I think, you know, capital in a 394 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:18,480 Bitcoin ETF is not like Bitcoin held on Polonia X in 2017, where 395 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,400 it's very easy to trade the Bitcoin for an old coin, right? 396 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,440 Like these new pots of capital are stickier, right? 397 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,240 Whether it's strategy or these other treasury companies or the 398 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,640 ETF. So less likely to rotate than in 399 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,360 past years, the investors are more mature, less likely to be 400 00:21:34,360 --> 00:21:38,400 enticed by the next quick game that they could get the Bitcoin 401 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,920 having's are a de minimis effect. 402 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:44,200 And now you have these passive bids, right. 403 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:45,760 And if you start seeing certainly if you start seeing 404 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,160 governments get involved or you know people earnestly doing it 405 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,920 in their retirement accounts, which has been a passive bid for 406 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,200 US equities for years, right. Like that should all dampen 407 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,720 volatility in the cyclicality. So I, I don't have a grain, it's 408 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,720 not a firm yes or no Nico, but I, I do think the cycles, if 409 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,280 they exist, will look a lot different. 410 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,440 Yo I want to tell you about the best place to build your 411 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,680 automatic self custody Bitcoin stack. 412 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,000 I'm talking about bitcoinwell.com. 413 00:22:15,360 --> 00:22:18,000 What makes bitcoinwell.com different is that it's a 414 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,440 completely non custodial platform. 415 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:24,480 Meaning as soon as you buy Bitcoin and the funds clear it 416 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,600 goes straight to yourself. Custody Bitcoin wallet address 417 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,480 and that perfectly aligns with simply Bitcoin ethos of the 418 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:34,440 separation of money and state. Support Bitcoin on Rams that are 419 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,640 self custody by default. To get started, go to 420 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,800 bitcoinwell.com today. Takes 2 to 5 minutes to sign up 421 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,200 and bada Bing bada boom you're ready to buy Bitcoin. 422 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,080 I I think you that is a is a good answer because it, it, 423 00:22:48,120 --> 00:22:50,800 there's a lot of nuance required to answer that question. 424 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,600 It isn't just a yes or no answer. 425 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,280 It's it's you have to you have to give the contacts. 426 00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:09,240 So I did enjoy that answer. So my second question is did I 427 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:10,680 completely lost my friend of thought? 428 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,000 So I'm going to look at my notes. 429 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:16,880 OK, here we go. So oh, OK, I remember now. 430 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:24,760 Do you think that the do you think that the Bitcoin ETF Wow, 431 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,960 this is such a I love asking this question. 432 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,320 You think that the Bitcoin ETFs are the Iclas? 433 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:35,600 I don't think the ETFs. No, sorry, not ETFs, I 434 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,520 apologize. The Bitcoin treasury companies. 435 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,680 Man, and you know, it's a good question. 436 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,360 I would say first, it's a very good question there, you know, 437 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:47,160 without giving a, I'll give a nuanced answer in a second, but 438 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,520 I think shorthand it is fair to say that yes, they possibly are. 439 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:54,560 They're the mean coins of last cycle, the IC OS of the NFTS of 440 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:59,680 21 and possibly the IC OS of 17. It, it is an investment fad. 441 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,040 It is novel. It is totally novel. 442 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,560 There's never been, I mean, we're tracking over 120 digital 443 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,080 asset treasury companies. I don't know if Bitcoiners are 444 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,040 aware, but it's not just ether. I mean, there's a Chinese 445 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,440 limousine company doing an XRP strategy. 446 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:16,800 I saw there's a new Dogecoin strategy. 447 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,840 So there's a bunch of these. As far as I'm aware, there have 448 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:25,160 never been centralized companies with publicly listed equities 449 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,960 whose sole purpose is to use leverage and dilution to acquire 450 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,280 a commodity at scale. Never heard of that. 451 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,720 So it's new, just like those were new. 452 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,720 I think it could be drawing demand from spot Bitcoin. 453 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,360 I think that's possible. On the other hand, a lot of 454 00:24:41,360 --> 00:24:46,000 these are buying spot Bitcoin, you know, and I will say, unlike 455 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:50,840 the ICO, if they're publicly listed, U.S. companies generally 456 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,320 publicly listed in any credible jurisdiction. 457 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,000 But let's talk about US equities. 458 00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,360 They do come with significant disclosure and oversight regimes 459 00:24:59,360 --> 00:25:01,000 that are meant to protect investors. 460 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:05,640 So unlike IC OS from 2017, when a white paper alone could let an 461 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:09,360 issuer raise a billion dollars with basically no promises and 462 00:25:09,360 --> 00:25:14,800 no standard for disclosure, that's not how publicly listed 463 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:16,480 US equities work. So they're, they're, they're 464 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:21,600 safer than IC OS in that sense. And they are a fad. 465 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,440 And who knows will they be here to stay? 466 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,840 I, you know, I think certainly some will make it through and 467 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,200 become long lasting. I, I don't think strategy is 468 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,440 going anywhere. You know, with the Bitcoin ones 469 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,960 in particular, you wonder, you know, who else can cross that 470 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,560 chasm and last. But hey, some of the things, 471 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,240 some of the projects that raise IC OS are also still here. 472 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,120 Not certainly not all of them, but not all of them you know 473 00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:47,960 didn't launch and or disappeared or were outright scams. 474 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,000 They might have resulted in projects there or block chains 475 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,800 you don't think are useful, but some of them do exist so. 476 00:25:57,120 --> 00:26:01,560 I I I saw the link, CEO or sheet to the wrongs of Trump at the 477 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,880 White House the other day. I have no idea what link. 478 00:26:07,120 --> 00:26:10,240 I mean, I would say not that I, I without passing judgement one 479 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,520 way or another on the project and project, it does exist. 480 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,560 It did launch. It didn't rug. 481 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,040 It might not be good. I don't know a lot about link. 482 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,840 I don't know if it's a great investment or a bad one or 483 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,920 anything like that. But like another one, Cardano, 484 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,120 which you know, I happen to think is a mostly useless 485 00:26:24,120 --> 00:26:26,000 blockchain. It did launch it. 486 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,680 It is a real blockchain. There are it does operate right 487 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,560 like so you know, even if you end up thinking that they're not 488 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,600 good investments, they doesn't mean they're all scams, even 489 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,040 though many IC OS were literally scams, right. 490 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:41,920 Like where people, you know, delete the white paper right 491 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:43,920 after raising and disappear on the Internet, right. 492 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,040 Like that is very unlikely to happen with the treasury 493 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:51,240 companies because they are well at least the ones that are in 494 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,600 the US and going and trying to be publicly listed companies. 495 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,840 They're highly regulated, right. So I would say that's a key 496 00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:58,560 difference. But I think from the investment 497 00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:02,320 standpoint, like I have to think just surely many of these will 498 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,200 fail, right? Or they will fail. 499 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,680 I think a lot of them will fail to actually raise the money that 500 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:08,920 they've announced they're trying to raise. 501 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,720 And so they won't even really launch, I think is a 502 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,560 possibility. Also, I do think though, even 503 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,600 letting I, you know, I did some of the comparison, direct 504 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,720 comparisons between the two. But even setting that aside, it 505 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:25,080 does feel like if we just think about like, you know, hype 506 00:27:25,120 --> 00:27:30,760 narrative, like I think about like IC OS in 17, NFTS were a 507 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:34,880 huge hype narrative in 21, meme coins in 24. 508 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,960 Like this does kind of feel like the 25 like hype narrative in 509 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,080 broader crypto markets. And I mean, you, you have to 510 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,160 give credit separately, not maybe blame too for the 511 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,240 explosion of them. But Sailor has has grown a 512 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:52,160 behemoth and he's found a way to tap pools of traditional capital 513 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,760 and steer them towards Bitcoin investment in ways that I think 514 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:59,600 will will honestly be studied for decades. 515 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,400 Right. I mean truly a a feat of 516 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,400 financial engineering to achieve a specified end. 517 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:08,560 That has never been done and I I don't think many will be able to 518 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,240 successfully copy it. Yeah, I, I completely agree. 519 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,480 And and and it seems like he's created a product to target 520 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:19,240 every pool of capital, right. Like it's like one for the 521 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:23,880 bonds, one for, you know, like the old investors, one for like, 522 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,680 you know, people that just are holding cat like there's a 523 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:31,400 product for every single thing, which is absolutely fascinating. 524 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,280 So I agree the financial engineering there has been, you 525 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,720 know, absolutely crazy to say the least. 526 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,920 I just want to get your thoughts on this because I don't think 527 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:40,600 we've I don't think you've come on the show. 528 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:41,600 I. Think it was on this year I 529 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:42,640 think. It's been a while since you're 530 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:47,520 on the show, but so, yeah, so it's a totally different world. 531 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,960 We won, right? Which is massive because last 532 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:55,160 year we were like under attack. Our industry was under attack. 533 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:59,600 November was a big victory. And many Bitcoiners, you know, I 534 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,960 remember calling this out when it became apparent as soon as 535 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,240 they arrested the samurai wall of developers, I said, like, 536 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,560 guys, listen, let's be real here. 537 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,640 It's probably not a good idea that Biden wins another 538 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,960 election. And then I remember that tweet 539 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,480 blew up, which tells me that it was everybody. 540 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,360 It was on everyone's subconscious mind, but no one 541 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,120 wanted to say the quiet part out loud. 542 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,880 And then a couple weeks later you have Trump on the campaign 543 00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,440 trail basically saying no CBDC's and everyone's like, yeah. 544 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,400 And then he's like, you guys like that no CBDC's. 545 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,320 And I remember I was telling my Co host AFTI, I was like, all 546 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,640 right, dude, like probably like two or three weeks, he's 547 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,920 probably going to say Bitcoin. And then he goes to Libertarian, 548 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,080 you know, convention. He's like, all right, if you 549 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,680 vote for me, I'll end Operation Truck Point 2.0. 550 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,920 I'll free Ross and Bitcoin and everyone's like I'll keep 551 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:48,920 Elizabeth for new game and conference bitcoins. 552 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,320 Yeah, yeah. Yeah, Yeah, it was. 553 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:53,960 It was hilarious. It was hilarious. 554 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,680 The guy's a character and we haven't talked. 555 00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,920 We haven't talked since then. So like, bro, like this is a 556 00:29:59,920 --> 00:30:03,280 totally different world. The executive order, the 557 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,320 strategic Bitcoin Reserve. They're supposed to be something 558 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,160 that came out today, by the way. I don't know. 559 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:08,520 Yeah, I don't. I know if it. 560 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,640 Doesn't come out. Enormous amount of talk about 561 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:11,880 that. The Presidential Working Group 562 00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,680 report also, Nico, I mean, an enormous amount has happened, 563 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:20,120 OK, like the banking regulators, the Fed, the FDICOCC, they've 564 00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:24,560 largely rescinded their antagonistic rules. 565 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,560 The OCC rescinded their Biden era stuff that prevented banks 566 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,400 from touching blockchains at all, touching Bitcoin, 567 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,240 custodying it. They just put out guidance for 568 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:37,360 bank risk managers, all three together saying how to custody. 569 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:41,920 And it's literally a checklist for yeah, like it is a risk for 570 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,760 a bank's risk manager to say if you demonstrate to us that 571 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,280 you're doing these things, then you can custody Bitcoin. 572 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:51,680 And that's that's normal for a risk manager to need to know 573 00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:55,600 what to cover and how to design their custody program or 574 00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:58,640 whatever the product is so that when the bank examiner comes, 575 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:00,920 they'll have done it right. So important steps there. 576 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,080 SE CS done an enormous amount on, on a variety of things. 577 00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,160 They said mining pools are not securities, right? 578 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,560 Your interest as a miner when you send, you know, your, your 579 00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,400 hash shares to a mining pool does it does not count that 580 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:13,640 relationship between you and the pools. 581 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,520 Not a security. They've said tons of other stuff 582 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:20,240 too on mostly like crypto related, but tons, tons coming 583 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:24,160 out of the SEC Yeah, you had the presidential working group which 584 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,880 ordered the government. That's an executive order on, on 585 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,880 like the second or third day of the presidency that orders the 586 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,760 government agencies across the government to look at like every 587 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,560 crypto related policy that may or may not be within the 588 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:40,280 regulatory jurisdiction, decide if it's good or bad, if it 589 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,080 should be changed, if there's some that aren't, don't exist, 590 00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:46,520 but should exist, and then go ahead and make those changes. 591 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:50,400 And, and, and it also ordered a conglomerate of those agencies, 592 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,280 sort of led by the Treasury Department to write this big 593 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,800 report, the Presidential Working group report on digital asset 594 00:31:56,800 --> 00:32:00,480 markets that is due from that working group to the White House 595 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,160 today, on July 22nd. It doesn't mean that the White 596 00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,480 House will release it today. In fact, I expect they'll 597 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,400 probably publish it next week before the end of the month. 598 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:13,280 That's going to have a giant pile of recommendations of 599 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,080 government policy as it relates to Bitcoin and digital assets 600 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,760 across the the gamut. And then obviously they have the 601 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:22,360 strategic Bitcoin Reserve executive order, which I mean, 602 00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,680 that really went a funny way. You remember it was that weekend 603 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:28,920 and Trump tweeted that ADDA, XRP and Seoul would be included in 604 00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,920 the reserve and he hadn't even said Bitcoin yet. 605 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:39,360 Dude, and, and I remember and I was, I had some like I had some 606 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,920 like sources like in DC and they were telling me what was going 607 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,880 on in the backroom, Alex. And it was basically the Ripple 608 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:50,160 lobby was like putting a tremendous amount of pressure on 609 00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:55,200 on the Trump administration. And like I was just and I 610 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,240 remember I was getting these texts like Nico, retweet this 611 00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,720 from the simply account, like you have to put attention to 612 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:04,160 this. And it was it was the Ripple 613 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,720 guys like trying to buy themselves into the room. 614 00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:11,280 But what I find absolutely hilarious is master stroke, 615 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,760 right? Like a strategic Bitcoin reserve 616 00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,000 and in a digital asset stockpile. 617 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,840 And then you see Brad Garlinghouse and like the the 618 00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:23,320 corner, the corner side of the table when he had it. 619 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,880 So it was just incredible political maneuvering by the 620 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,280 Trump administration. I mean, we got everything we 621 00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:30,920 wanted. And well, that was it was almost 622 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:34,440 like that, you know, there was a Politico story that also went 623 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,360 behind the scenes after the fact and explained some of how that 624 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,680 that ripple thing got added and the seemed like they overplayed 625 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:42,920 their hand and it backfired significantly. 626 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,920 You even had a cataloguing that day on that Sunday and Monday, 627 00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,200 you had Brian Armstrong come out and say it should be Bitcoin 628 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,240 only. You had major like crypto 629 00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,520 executives that certainly have interests outside of just 630 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,600 Bitcoin saying, OK, wait a SEC, XRP and Adda and Seoul like this 631 00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,600 has gone too far. And it was the backlash that I 632 00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,040 think resulted in the strong language we got. 633 00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,520 That was because, remember, what we end up getting in that 634 00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:12,080 executive order is a prohibition on the government ever selling 635 00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,000 its Bitcoin, right? And then an order to parts of 636 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,239 the government treasury, mostly to develop strategies that are 637 00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,600 budget neutral to get more Bitcoin while simultaneously 638 00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,239 saying that the the digital asset stockpile everything other 639 00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,120 than Bitcoin that the government has. 640 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,679 They should try to keep it, but they don't have to. 641 00:34:30,679 --> 00:34:32,480 They're not prohibited from selling like they are with the 642 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,320 Bitcoin, but they are prohibited from buying. 643 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:39,120 So it's like Bitcoin ended up getting exactly what it wanted 644 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,040 for the strategic reserve and really everything else is 645 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,960 technically in a sell only mode at the US government. 646 00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,080 They can get more through civil asset forfeiture or criminal 647 00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,639 penalties and stuff like that, but they can't buy it and 648 00:34:50,639 --> 00:34:52,280 they're not prohibited from selling it. 649 00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,880 So it went from like, wait a SEC, it's going to be like 650 00:34:55,880 --> 00:35:00,600 Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Soul and ADDA on a Sunday to that 651 00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:02,600 Thursday. I think Thursday night when they 652 00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,800 released it, it was like, oh wait, it's Bitcoin only and 653 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:06,480 everything else like could be sold. 654 00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,360 Yeah, dude, it was, it was like the art of the deal, you know, 655 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,160 because I went through like emotions, you know, like I was 656 00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:14,720 like, oh, this is such a bad ass. 657 00:35:14,720 --> 00:35:16,480 And then I was like, it's Bitcoin only. 658 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,560 Like, yeah, orange man, orange man. 659 00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,160 Good. But yeah, I remember that. 660 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,320 Like it was, it was, it was so cryptic. 661 00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,360 You know, it was like, it was like he's not mentioning 662 00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:26,960 Bitcoin. But now you look back in 663 00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,120 hindsight and you could tell he did it on purpose. 664 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,720 Right, I don't know, I. Don't know if he prompted it on 665 00:35:31,720 --> 00:35:33,240 very very well. I'm not. 666 00:35:33,240 --> 00:35:34,680 It does look like art of the deal. 667 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,080 I think it could also just be like wildly overplaying your 668 00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,760 hand from, not from Trump, but from the, you know, the Alcorn 669 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:44,240 promoter. Need liquidity without having to 670 00:35:44,240 --> 00:35:47,360 sell your Bitcoin? For more than six years now, 671 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:51,360 Leaden has been the trusted choice for Bitcoin backed 672 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:55,840 lending with transparency, security and trust at their 673 00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,520 core. I absolutely love these guys and 674 00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:02,000 I personally have not only an account with them, but also 675 00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:03,840 alone. And some of the key features 676 00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,920 that I love about Leaden is the fact that there are no monthly 677 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,960 payments. You pay at the end of the term. 678 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,880 You also have the ability to roll over the loan as well, and 679 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,800 you could pay it back whenever you want. 680 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,440 Essentially what they do is that they help their clients unlock 681 00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:25,000 the liquidity of their BTC, allowing you to huddle while 682 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,800 still accessing the wealth of your Bitcoin. 683 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,840 They've been battle tested with their focus on transparency, 684 00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:35,800 security and trust, allowing them to build a proven track 685 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:40,120 record of client success and security, helping 10s of 686 00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,560 thousands of clients harness the value of their digital assets 687 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:45,960 with confidence and Peace of Mind. 688 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:50,080 Learn more about what your BTC can do for you. 689 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:55,200 Check out leaden dot IO today. So another thing too that came 690 00:36:55,200 --> 00:37:01,600 out recently and shout out Lola Litz, which is apparently the US 691 00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:07,320 government doesn't have as much Bitcoin as originally believed 692 00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,480 that. It seems like they sold a lot 693 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,920 during the last days of the Biden administration, which a 694 00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,360 lot of us were actually suspecting they were doing. 695 00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:21,120 But we don't know this for sure. This is only data coming out of 696 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,920 US Marshall's office or what not. 697 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,120 But what's your take on that? I'm sure you have more you've 698 00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:31,200 done more research on this specific topic, like did they 699 00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,560 sell the Bitcoin? Does the US governance still 700 00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:34,840 have that Bitcoin? What's going on? 701 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:36,560 Elegance, right? I think that the commonly 702 00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:40,840 accepted crypto market view of how much Bitcoin the government 703 00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:44,520 probably has is about 200,000 coins, right, which is billions 704 00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:48,840 of dollars. And that that list that is based 705 00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:53,360 on on chain attribution, that is mostly related to looking at the 706 00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,840 addresses in various cases that the government says they from 707 00:37:56,840 --> 00:38:00,120 which the government says they seized coins and then seeing 708 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,120 where they move them to. And if they haven't moved since, 709 00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,000 right? So like, you know, if Alex is 710 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,400 under arrest and they put in the thing that we seized, Alex is 711 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,040 like, you know, BC1Q, whatever Bitcoin. 712 00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:11,160 And then we look at that address, see that it moved to a 713 00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:12,640 new place and now it's just inert there. 714 00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,720 We assume that new place is the government, right? 715 00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:18,240 And you Add all that up and it still looks like hundreds of 716 00:38:18,240 --> 00:38:21,960 thousands of Bitcoin. I got to give Lil elites 717 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,240 credits. Great piece of journalism, but 718 00:38:24,240 --> 00:38:27,760 it is what you said. It is what the US Marshals Asset 719 00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:32,240 Forfeiture Division says that it holds or owns, I should say, so 720 00:38:32,240 --> 00:38:35,000 that it controls, right? It's a list of addresses that it 721 00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:38,120 controls. the US government's very big, OK. 722 00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:41,800 Not everybody, not every coin that the US government may or 723 00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:45,400 may not control at the moment is in the possession of the US 724 00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:47,400 Marshals Asset Forfeiture Division, right? 725 00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,480 And part of me thinks that she asked there because David Bailey 726 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,360 had put out a bounty for that specific thing, right? 727 00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:57,160 Like, he didn't say how much Bitcoin does the government 728 00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:58,600 have. He said how much does the US 729 00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:00,640 Marshals have was the actual bounty. 730 00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,160 So I, I, I think the, you know, the US Marshals are not the US 731 00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,120 Treasury Department. I think one of the reasons 732 00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:11,120 people, we, we still haven't seen the coins move. 733 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,360 Almost none of from those addresses that people think 734 00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:14,800 belong to the government, they haven't moved. 735 00:39:15,240 --> 00:39:18,440 So if you believe they were sold, I think the idea is that, 736 00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:20,400 well, if the government say, let's say some of those 737 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:22,680 addresses are at Coinbase and the Coinbase is holding it for 738 00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:26,240 the government, Coinbase, just like you know, coins are 739 00:39:26,240 --> 00:39:29,520 fungible. So Coinbase can sell those coins 740 00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,320 on behalf of the government while actually just delivering 741 00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,080 other coins and not moving the coins, right? 742 00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,880 Delivering other coins to the buyer by re ledgering them 743 00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:37,920 internally could be done so they could be sold. 744 00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:41,000 To be clear, we don't know exactly what has or hasn't been 745 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,200 sold. But I would caution, I don't 746 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,840 think the government went from 200,000 coins under its 747 00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:49,720 possession to what 20,000 is what Marshall says at all. 748 00:39:49,720 --> 00:39:53,480 And I think there are also 93 US attorney districts, right? 749 00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:56,240 Those are the, the law, the criminal lawyers for the, for 750 00:39:56,240 --> 00:39:57,520 the Department of Justice, right? 751 00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:59,240 There's the Southern District of New York and the Eastern 752 00:39:59,240 --> 00:40:01,440 District of New York and the whatever, right? 753 00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,680 They're all over. Like they have a level of 754 00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:06,160 autonomy. They don't when they arrest, you 755 00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:09,760 know, a criminal and find Bitcoin on a Ledger or a cold 756 00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,280 card, they don't, they're not required to instantly send it to 757 00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,640 the marshals either. So I think the the process of 758 00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:20,280 gathering the coins for the reserve itself is 759 00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,960 technologically and logistically complicated. 760 00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,640 And it's also legally complicated because there are 761 00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,520 civil asset forfeiture laws there. 762 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,600 The government is not necessarily free to do whatever 763 00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:36,360 it wants with things that it confiscates as as part of 764 00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,680 criminal investigations or as the proceeds of crime. 765 00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:43,720 So it's possible that maybe the Marshals holds a lot more, but 766 00:40:43,720 --> 00:40:48,080 in the context of setting up the reserve and doing legal analysis 767 00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:49,840 and every little piece of coin that might be there, the 768 00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,360 Treasury might have said, Hey, these like 80,000 coins that 769 00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:55,400 you're holding, those are going to be ours. 770 00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,880 So those are no longer in your control, although we choose at 771 00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:01,000 the moment not to move in one chain, right? 772 00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:04,880 So you, it, it is even possible that the 28 K that the marshals, 773 00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:09,120 it's possible that they've identified is every coin that 774 00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:12,760 won't be part of the reserve. And that the others, they, they 775 00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:16,200 didn't say, here's every, you know, key key that we've ever 776 00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,760 held the, the keys to. Here's every UTX that we were 777 00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,880 held the keys to, right? It's possible that by the time 778 00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:26,800 that I think that the snapshot is what, March 31st. 779 00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:30,120 So like that would be pretty quick after the SBREO came out, 780 00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:33,920 which I think was like March 6. But it's possible that Treasury 781 00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:37,360 said, look, those hundred, maybe they had 128 and Treasury said, 782 00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:40,360 hey, actually those hundred, we've done the work and those 783 00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:41,480 are ours now, but don't move them. 784 00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,320 We don't want to move them yet. So like it, it really, I don't 785 00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,320 actually think it tells you much. 786 00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:50,080 I guess the Long story short about how many coins the 787 00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,560 government actually possesses or how many coins will or won't end 788 00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:57,120 up in the strategic reserve. But it is a fantastic, I think 789 00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,520 we know that, you know, the Marshall's asset forfeiture 790 00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,720 division has only those, you know, somewhat about 30,000 791 00:42:02,720 --> 00:42:04,880 coins. I just don't think it tells us 792 00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:08,080 that they sold, and it doesn't really help us in figuring out 793 00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,920 where the which part of the government thinks it controls 794 00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:14,960 which other coins. And so I heard a rumor, and let 795 00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:18,280 me know if you believe it's true, but I heard the rumor that 796 00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,760 basically during the Biden administration, Janet Yellen had 797 00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:26,600 all the US government's Bitcoin on a cold card in her desk. 798 00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:27,200 Is that? True. 799 00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:29,640 I did not hear that. I have no idea. 800 00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:32,720 I don't, I don't think it's true. 801 00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:37,200 I would guess it's not true, I think, but there had been for 802 00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,880 sure there had been Colt ledgers and evidence lockers around 803 00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:42,920 those federal prosecutors offices. 804 00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,440 Like that's what I'm saying even just like finding all the coins 805 00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:49,640 that the government supposedly has like is not a the US 806 00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:54,520 government is extremely large. I doubt Janet Yellen herself was 807 00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,000 holding them in the Treasury Department. 808 00:42:56,000 --> 00:43:00,160 But I guess anything's possible. It would be a funny image. 809 00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:03,480 And that's I'm just like imagining that in my head, just 810 00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:06,160 like her pulling it up, like putting in her pen, like, oh 811 00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,720 man, I I got the pin wrong. You have the words. 812 00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:16,240 We've lost some Bitcoin anyways, So what do you think is the 813 00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:21,440 current state of the lightning network in second layers? 814 00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:25,720 Because we all know that this Bitcoin can't scale on the first 815 00:43:25,720 --> 00:43:27,560 layer. What do you think the current 816 00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:31,040 status of, of second, second layer solutions are? 817 00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:32,840 What do you think about light network? 818 00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:34,440 You know, there's fediment, right? 819 00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:37,400 You know, there's liquid, right? There's a couple, you know, 820 00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:39,800 different types of solutions and stuff. 821 00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:44,400 And then there's like I would say, which kind of connects to 822 00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:49,640 that question, which is like, is Bitcoin actually being used as 823 00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:52,960 money right now? Because I, I, I see it really 824 00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:58,480 being used as a commodity, you know, as, as like this, you 825 00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,280 know, thing that you know, to use sailors where it's this 826 00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:06,160 pristine collateral, this encapsulated energy. 827 00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:09,840 But is it actually being used as money? 828 00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:13,040 And I believe it was Jack Dorsey that tweeted out like, if 829 00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:15,640 Bitcoin isn't used as money, it is a failure. 830 00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:20,960 It is being used as money. It's not probably the the 831 00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:25,200 circulating supply of all coins, which is like 19.8 something 832 00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:28,600 million at the moment, not the majority of those coins are 833 00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,280 being used as money. But you know, I've seen it used 834 00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:32,760 as money. We know about it being used as 835 00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:36,560 money and really we mean medium of exchange, right? 836 00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:38,680 Like to buy and sell goods and services. 837 00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:44,800 But there's no doubt that it's uses digital gold as a sort of a 838 00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:48,760 global non sovereign scarce digital asset as an investment 839 00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:53,160 or store value is the dominant narrative in Bitcoin world these 840 00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:57,160 days. I don't know if it needs to be 841 00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:00,120 used as a medium of exchange to be long term successful. 842 00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:03,560 I do think it's possible you end up with, you know, Fiat stays 843 00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:07,320 around forever and maybe governments never succeed in 844 00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,160 getting rid of it. But Bitcoin becomes the the 845 00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:12,960 gold, the alternative, right? Like for for, you know, 846 00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:16,640 millennia you've had gold. There've obviously been times 847 00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:21,320 when governments issued their Fiat on the gold platform, 848 00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,080 right? But we've had an untethered 849 00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:28,440 paper only no backing Fiat regime since I guess you could 850 00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:32,240 say the 70s since the, you know, US halt to the convertibility of 851 00:45:32,240 --> 00:45:35,120 the dollar to gold. But in some cases that you could 852 00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,080 say longer and, and, and certainly, you know, 853 00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:41,680 historically monetary regimes have shifted between hard and 854 00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,840 sound money, you know, hard and sound money to soft and Fiat 855 00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,600 money back and forth. The the Romans themselves like 856 00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,960 debased and rebase their currency multiple times across 857 00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:55,040 their empire's history. So I think it can exist next to 858 00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:58,080 Fiat money and be very successful as store of value, 859 00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:01,080 which by the way, a store of value that's gold like, but 860 00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:04,680 digital transferable self custody bowl, all of it in size, 861 00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:06,720 right. So like it is kind of like gold 862 00:46:06,720 --> 00:46:09,200 with wings already. It could. 863 00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:13,240 I don't agree with Jack therefore, that it must be used 864 00:46:13,240 --> 00:46:16,800 for wide amounts of day-to-day medium of exchange to be long 865 00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:18,520 term successful. I don't agree with that. 866 00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:20,760 I think it can be long term successful without that. 867 00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:24,560 I do think it is being used for that, not at the scale that it's 868 00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,720 being used to store a value. When it comes to the state of L 869 00:46:27,720 --> 00:46:30,680 twos, I think lightning is. It's never been easier for me to 870 00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,840 run. I'm running C Lightning right 871 00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:36,000 now on my umbrella. You know I'm not. 872 00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:38,680 I'm still. Are you balancing channels? 873 00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:40,880 Not really and I'm not using it that often. 874 00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:44,720 I just have a couple like nice channels with, you know people I 875 00:46:44,720 --> 00:46:48,920 know that are and I haven't had to, I don't use it enough or 876 00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:51,880 push enough coin down the channels to really need to 877 00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:54,320 rebalance that much. But it is it is not easy to be 878 00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:57,680 clear and I and I do prefer to use, you know, a combination of 879 00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:03,080 like a semi custodial wallet like Phoenix with like, you 880 00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:06,560 know, a brokerage like River as my on and off ramp in and out of 881 00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:08,720 Lightning. Like that's so convenient. 882 00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:14,760 It's so I, I, I literally just have money on, on, on Primal and 883 00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:17,680 I just like, and I'm just like, you know, whatever this is my 884 00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:18,600 lightning wallet. Yeah. 885 00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:20,800 And I don't care if it's completely custodial like it's 886 00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:22,440 just it's. Like yeah, cuz you're not like 887 00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:24,920 your life savings on there. It's like walk around money 888 00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:26,840 kinda. Correct. 889 00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:30,240 And then if you want to do the same thing but with with self 890 00:47:30,240 --> 00:47:32,720 custody, lightning dude, the hoop. 891 00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,760 Is very hard, I agree. The Hoops. 892 00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:39,680 Well, and lightning like lightning capacity, sorry, 893 00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:42,160 though the number of transactions on lightning has 894 00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:44,720 been declining, but the size has been going up. 895 00:47:45,720 --> 00:47:48,040 That's which is interesting. It makes me think that it is 896 00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:51,000 maybe this is sad to a lot of lightning, like real true 897 00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:54,600 lightning believers, but maybe it is more custodial lightning, 898 00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,240 right, sending in bigger size settling right? 899 00:47:58,240 --> 00:48:00,600 Or it's the network also being more resilient. 900 00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:02,840 I, I don't know. I, I don't think I think 901 00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,520 lightning is extremely useful. It's I think it's by far the 902 00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:08,680 most decentralized L2 across the entire crypto ecosystem. 903 00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:13,320 It is not even an L2 right? I mean, it's, it is a network of 904 00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:17,080 overlapping bilateral payment chances that happens to form a 905 00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:18,960 network. It's not even there's no, it's 906 00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,880 not stateful. There's no coordination across 907 00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:23,800 the network, right? You can't even get a good view 908 00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:26,960 on the data on what's happening on the network unless you 909 00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:28,840 yourself have a highly connected node, right? 910 00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:32,480 So it's extremely decentralized and I think that's very 911 00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:34,760 powerful. And other networks like Etherium 912 00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:38,920 have have looked at payment channels and as a, as an L2 913 00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:43,240 scaling methodology and rejected them because, for example, you 914 00:48:43,240 --> 00:48:45,800 can't like run a smart contract that's stateful across the 915 00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:50,120 entirety of the network on a, on a payment channel L2. 916 00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:53,720 And because of that, they sort of halted all advancement in 917 00:48:53,720 --> 00:48:56,560 payment channel research, whereas I think the Bitcoiners 918 00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,800 have shown that Lightning can and, and these bilateral payment 919 00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,840 channel L twos can be very, very powerful. 920 00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:06,800 And you know, now, if you have like, I, I haven't seen it used 921 00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,280 yet and I don't know a lot about it, but like the taproot assets 922 00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:12,520 protocol that could see like tokens on these networks, such 923 00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:15,280 as stable coins could, could revolutionize them. 924 00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:18,200 But I will say it is not that widely used. 925 00:49:18,840 --> 00:49:21,840 Also, you know, you said that we know L twos need to be used. 926 00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:24,920 I mean, Bitcoin fees are like almost nothing. 927 00:49:25,240 --> 00:49:28,200 And right now, my gosh, we've got a whopping 18 megabytes in 928 00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:32,440 the public mempool for you've seen for there been days and 929 00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:35,200 days over the last couple months where there's literally not even 930 00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,880 a full block of pending transactions at the mempool. 931 00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:43,320 So like, you know, I think if it if the mempool becomes really 932 00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:47,680 clogged and transactions become really expensive, then yeah, 933 00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:50,560 that will create further incentive for more L2 934 00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:52,840 development. But at the moment, like there's 935 00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,440 not a huge need. I mean, frankly, like which I 936 00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:57,880 think could be problematic. Part of that's probably because 937 00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:01,200 a lot of people rather than even buying on a crypto exchange or 938 00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:04,280 whatever Poloni X in 2017 and withdrawing the self custody, 939 00:50:04,720 --> 00:50:08,200 they are buying ETFs and they are buying treasury companies. 940 00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,520 And those to the extent that they hit the Memphol, they hit 941 00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:17,120 in big batch transactions, not in many small ones, you know, So 942 00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:21,640 I, it, it goes also to the, the spam and arbitrary data dispute 943 00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:25,280 about, you know, opera turn. And like, it's just ironic to me 944 00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,040 that we're having that debate when like, the man pool's empty, 945 00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:32,160 like spam, it's barely being transacted on at all. 946 00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:35,760 I want to give a shout out to our partnersat123.com. 947 00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,480 Sovereignty isn't just about your money, it's about your 948 00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:41,560 communications too. When the grid goes down, most 949 00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:43,920 people go dark. Cell towers fail, and 950 00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:46,000 hurricanes, cyber attacks and blackouts. 951 00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:48,080 But satellite phones? They don't rely on local 952 00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:51,520 infrastructure. Iridium has 77 satellites in 953 00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:54,800 orbit, giving you a Direct Line anywhere in the US, even 954 00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:56,920 offshore. If you hold your own Bitcoin 955 00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:59,360 keys, you should hold your own comms too. 956 00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:03,120 SAT 1/2 three.com also has everything you need to start 957 00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:06,680 building your Bitcoin, Citadel, Starlink, battery backups, 958 00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:10,040 Faraday bags to protect your hardware wallets, and much much 959 00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:12,640 more. It's a one stop shop for anyone 960 00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:15,400 serious about resilience and off grid independence. 961 00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:18,480 Stay connected, stay independent, stay sovereign. 962 00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:24,040 Go to sat123.com/simply today and use promo code simply to get 963 00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:27,800 15% off anything on the store. Yeah, I completely agree. 964 00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:29,320 What? What do you? 965 00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,240 What do you it's, it's, it's fascinating too, because a lot 966 00:51:32,240 --> 00:51:34,360 of people put a lot of hope on lightning, right? 967 00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:38,080 And then a lot of people also put on one of one of my favorite 968 00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:42,880 things is I, I would say it's favorite because it, I find it 969 00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:46,040 fascinating, which was basically like Bitcoiners had this 970 00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:50,120 preconceived notion that you were going to see this wide 971 00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:53,040 adoption of Bitcoin specifically in developing countries that had 972 00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:57,160 high inflation. But what you saw instead was 973 00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:04,360 this viral adoption of USDT of stable coins instead, right? 974 00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:07,520 Which is like completely contradicting what Bitcoiners 975 00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:09,280 originally believed because they're like, Oh my God, this 976 00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:12,400 Bitcoin fixes this thing where people are just like, you know, 977 00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:15,240 like they, they wanted something that didn't have the volatility 978 00:52:15,240 --> 00:52:17,040 that Bitcoin had. So they can kind of Live Today, 979 00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:18,920 live day-to-day. And then there's also the 980 00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:21,240 educational component, right? Because if you're in Latin 981 00:52:21,240 --> 00:52:24,680 America, you know, like I'm originally Venezuelan, like, you 982 00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:27,160 know, you get $100 bill, like that's, that's like, you know, 983 00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:29,760 that is the, you're on top of the world, right? 984 00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:33,440 So if you can have that in digital form, you know, you're 985 00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:37,600 in a good spot, right? What is the most contrarian or 986 00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,640 unpopular belief you hold about Bitcoin right now? 987 00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:46,920 Oh man, that's a good question. Most contrarian on. 988 00:52:49,720 --> 00:52:52,400 Well, to the point that I would just boot you off the show if I 989 00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:55,120 hear it. And my God, well, I mean, end 990 00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:56,440 the recording. End the recording. 991 00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:58,560 I see. I mean, I, you know, I'll riff a 992 00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:00,760 little bit on your last point. I mean, I think stable coins are 993 00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:02,800 an incredible innovation. I think they really are 994 00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:05,520 powerful. I think the world wants dollars. 995 00:53:05,520 --> 00:53:09,320 They they have for a long time. And I think, like I said this 996 00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:12,720 before, but you know, you could self custody dollars for the 997 00:53:12,720 --> 00:53:15,560 first time ever once now. I mean, now that we have stable 998 00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:19,800 coins, obviously the issuer for like Tether or circle like and 999 00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,560 and certainly any new ones that emerge under this genius act 1000 00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:27,080 framework, the the issuer can freeze them and and kill them. 1001 00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:29,520 That's true. Like we know that then it's not 1002 00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:33,280 as it isn't digital cash the way literally physical cash, the 1003 00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:36,760 $100 bill would be. Nobody can, you know, reach in 1004 00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:40,160 from afar and burn the dollar under my under my bed, right? 1005 00:53:40,160 --> 00:53:44,840 But oh, and similarly, they can't steal your Bitcoin out of 1006 00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:48,320 your address. And so it's not as good from a 1007 00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:51,800 censorship resistance standpoint, obviously as Bitcoin 1008 00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:54,680 or physical cash. But it is a lot better 1009 00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:57,920 potentially self custodying a stable coin than having a 1010 00:53:57,920 --> 00:54:01,000 balance on a fintech app, right? I mean, it is better than that. 1011 00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:03,960 And that is very interesting to me. 1012 00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,880 I think you're going to see. The. 1013 00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:09,880 Global remittance firms, the Western unions and the trans 1014 00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:12,800 trans unions and they're going to come under significant 1015 00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:16,560 pressure from stable coins. I think their margins, the cost 1016 00:54:16,560 --> 00:54:21,240 of moving dollars over borders is basically going to 0, whereas 1017 00:54:21,240 --> 00:54:23,800 it's very high today. It's one of the most expensive 1018 00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:26,200 and tricky things to do is move money across borders. 1019 00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:30,240 Here's a Bitcoin specific one. I do think Quantum will be a 1020 00:54:30,240 --> 00:54:33,720 threat to Bitcoin. I don't know when I think and by 1021 00:54:33,720 --> 00:54:36,480 the way, not just Bitcoin, you know, we can take solace on the 1022 00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:39,160 fact that actually EVM based change are significant, like 1023 00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:42,560 like Aetherium are significantly more at risk actually than 1024 00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:45,680 Bitcoin. But Bitcoin is that would be at 1025 00:54:45,680 --> 00:54:47,920 risk. And it's not just Satoshi's 1026 00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:51,560 coins in the case that quantum cryptography became 1027 00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:54,920 cryptographically relevant, meaning that you could 1028 00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:58,200 successfully, you know, run Shore's algorithm and, and, and, 1029 00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:04,320 you know, break ECDSA. It is potentially all coins when 1030 00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:06,120 you go to send them, because in Bitcoin, when you sign a 1031 00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:08,720 transaction and put it in the men pool, you reveal the public 1032 00:55:08,720 --> 00:55:11,240 key. So even if you know, the reason 1033 00:55:11,240 --> 00:55:13,880 we say like Satoshi's coins are uniquely vulnerable is that 1034 00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:17,040 they're largely in pay to public key addresses where the public 1035 00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:19,640 key itself is sitting there on the chain, right. 1036 00:55:19,640 --> 00:55:23,360 So you could, I could right now task this computer at trying to 1037 00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:27,240 brute force the cryptography from that on that public key and 1038 00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:30,320 derive the private key from it. It would take, you know what 1039 00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:33,080 like, you know, as many years as there are grains of sand in the 1040 00:55:33,080 --> 00:55:35,880 universe, right? Like so possible, technically 1041 00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:40,160 possible, so unbelievably difficult as to be, you know, 1042 00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:43,120 infeasible. The ideas with a quantum 1043 00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:47,920 computer capable of, you know, step change function, more 1044 00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:51,720 amount of computation, many step changes that that length of time 1045 00:55:51,720 --> 00:55:53,520 could shrink to a very small amount of time. 1046 00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:57,160 But that's why hashed addresses address formats on Bitcoin. 1047 00:55:57,240 --> 00:56:01,000 The NNH right paid a public key hash paid a script hash paid a 1048 00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:05,120 you know, whatever they are the public key pass through a one 1049 00:56:05,120 --> 00:56:08,600 way hash function. And there's not even really the 1050 00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:11,240 contention in quantum research that they could reverse a one 1051 00:56:11,240 --> 00:56:16,320 way hash function to then find the Bitcoin key public key to 1052 00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:19,240 then brute force. So those are safe in when 1053 00:56:19,240 --> 00:56:21,720 they're inert. But even from those hash address 1054 00:56:21,720 --> 00:56:24,680 formats, when you go to spend, you reveal the public key. 1055 00:56:24,680 --> 00:56:29,360 And the idea is that even the again, assuming that we ever get 1056 00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:33,200 a quanta, A cryptographically relevant quantum computer, the 1057 00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:36,640 distance between needing a year to brute force something, you 1058 00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:39,640 know, you could just spend forever on the Satoshi's public 1059 00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:42,200 keys are available. So like anyone could be brute 1060 00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:43,240 force trying to brute force them. 1061 00:56:43,240 --> 00:56:47,200 Right now you can't really brute force a hash public key address, 1062 00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:50,360 but when you go to spend, they will sit there in the men pool 1063 00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:52,560 until they're confirmed. And so you could imagine that 1064 00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:55,640 the if we get to that point with cryptographically relevant 1065 00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:59,160 quantum computers, that the the time, oh, it takes a year to a 1066 00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:02,600 month to a week to a minute to break. 1067 00:57:02,600 --> 00:57:05,200 Like once you make that key breakthrough, you have to 1068 00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:09,400 basically adversarially assume that they will get so good that 1069 00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:11,200 they could break it instantly in the men pool. 1070 00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:14,240 So we really need something better as a solution. 1071 00:57:14,240 --> 00:57:18,480 And there are solutions being worked on by many Bitcoiners and 1072 00:57:18,480 --> 00:57:20,600 Bitcoin developers that that exist. 1073 00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:24,560 So while I say I do believe it will be a problem at some point 1074 00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:27,680 in the future, Bitcoin can also upgrade. 1075 00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:31,120 There's, there's interesting new hashing algorithms and, and 1076 00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:34,760 address formats, as well as really interesting commit reveal 1077 00:57:34,760 --> 00:57:39,640 scheme that Taj Dridja, the original white paper author of 1078 00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:43,640 Lightning proposed last week in in at Presidio Bitcoin. 1079 00:57:43,640 --> 00:57:46,560 So there are solutions, but I do think it will matter. 1080 00:57:46,560 --> 00:57:49,480 And don't ask me when because I don't think it's soon, but I 1081 00:57:49,480 --> 00:57:51,600 also have no idea. But it's not it's not that soon 1082 00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:54,280 when the two big questions obviously are when and how do we 1083 00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:57,440 fix it? I'm pretty encouraged after 1084 00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:00,160 going to this Quantum Bitcoin Summit at Presidio Bitcoin last 1085 00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:01,760 week that. Oh, tell me more. 1086 00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:05,880 How did the solutions are isn't as scary as I had thought? 1087 00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:08,280 It's not. It's not, but it has to be a 1088 00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:11,200 hard fork. Yeah, it it may the the commit 1089 00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:14,640 reveal scheme. Yeah, it it's not clear if it 1090 00:58:14,640 --> 00:58:17,320 has to be a hard fork yet. It's not clear it does have to 1091 00:58:17,320 --> 00:58:20,280 be some kind of fork. Probably there might be ways to 1092 00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:25,320 do there's, there's a new signature scheme called Sphinx 1093 00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:29,800 Plus that Lalu from Lightning Labs, right roast beef proposed 1094 00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:32,840 has advocated for. I don't think he's the original 1095 00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:35,000 creator of it. That's compelling. 1096 00:58:35,000 --> 00:58:36,440 Don't ask me to explain it in detail. 1097 00:58:36,440 --> 00:58:39,480 I am not a cryptographer, but it it it's compelling. 1098 00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:44,560 Some of those currently those schema require very large 1099 00:58:44,560 --> 00:58:47,720 signatures. So you could be looking at 1100 00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:51,440 either a block size increase to implement them or just many 1101 00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:53,480 fewer transactions per block, right? 1102 00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:56,880 So lowering the transaction, the TPS of Bitcoin in order to 1103 00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,640 accommodate that. But those could one day also be 1104 00:58:59,640 --> 00:59:00,920 reduced. You know, we don't know. 1105 00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:03,920 And then this commit reveal scheme is like, it's sort of 1106 00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:06,120 like a break glass in case of emergency. 1107 00:59:06,120 --> 00:59:10,520 There is a way where you could create a proof where a system of 1108 00:59:10,520 --> 00:59:13,400 proofs where you first broadcast a proof and then later broadcast 1109 00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:17,040 the coins. So and, and, and I think Taj is 1110 00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:18,600 going to put something out on this soon. 1111 00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:20,600 And, and so we'll see. I'm also planning on running a 1112 00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:24,720 big paper on this over the next month or so to explain like what 1113 00:59:24,720 --> 00:59:27,360 my understanding is of the current state of the problem and 1114 00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:30,560 some of the top solutions being proposed. 1115 00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:33,960 I don't think you're no one really knows when 1116 00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:36,880 cryptographically relevant quantum computers will happen. 1117 00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:39,800 Maybe governments do, but if they do, it's classified. 1118 00:59:39,800 --> 00:59:42,760 I think one thing worth pointing to is that the US government 1119 00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:46,960 mandates that U.S. government agencies be off classical 1120 00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:51,240 cryptography by 2030. So that's 4 1/2 years. 1121 00:59:51,240 --> 00:59:55,440 That's not 20 years. So I think it will be relevant. 1122 00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:58,680 I don't think it's a reason to buy or not buy Bitcoin today. 1123 01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:04,560 But I do think that the corner should be, look, even if it 1124 01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:07,320 doesn't happen, why not work on potential solutions for it? 1125 01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:10,440 That's sort of my viewpoint anyway that maybe that's 1126 01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:12,240 contrarian, I'm not sure. It seems to be coming more 1127 01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:16,600 popular right now these these. I I would say that the tether 1128 01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:23,280 for anyone who who understands stable coins, it is contrarian. 1129 01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:25,400 I I'm on your camp, by the way. I love them. 1130 01:00:25,400 --> 01:00:28,400 I think they've like basically changed the world of anyone 1131 01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:30,040 that's living in developing country. 1132 01:00:30,040 --> 01:00:33,080 Like the fact that you have access to dollars like literally 1133 01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:37,600 gives you a new shot on life. I think it is contrarian because 1134 01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:41,000 I think a lot of bitcoiners expected that to be Bitcoin, but 1135 01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:44,120 at fundamentally like what in in my mind, I'm like, dude, aren't 1136 01:00:44,120 --> 01:00:47,480 you a free market Maximus, bro? You know, like the free market 1137 01:00:47,480 --> 01:00:52,320 is selling you something, right? And I think stablecoins are a 1138 01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:54,880 stepping stone towards Bitcoin because it gives people access 1139 01:00:54,880 --> 01:00:57,840 to digital wallets and then they're just one step away, 1140 01:00:57,880 --> 01:01:00,760 right? And I think anyone that adopts a 1141 01:01:00,760 --> 01:01:04,040 digital dollar, you're going to come to the realization very 1142 01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:07,120 quickly that we've come to the realization in the West that 1143 01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:10,040 inflation sucks. Like if you're coming from 1144 01:01:10,040 --> 01:01:11,920 double digit inflation and you're switching to a 1145 01:01:11,920 --> 01:01:14,960 stablecoin, you're like, wow, this fixes everything, but over 1146 01:01:14,960 --> 01:01:17,280 a couple over, you know, a couple of years, you're going to 1147 01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:18,880 start to feel the inflation of the dollar. 1148 01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:20,600 And then of course, this is where Bitcoin comes in. 1149 01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:22,800 So I, I, I see it as a Trojan horse. 1150 01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:26,520 I think the genius act was incredibly positive for the 1151 01:01:26,520 --> 01:01:30,040 industry. So I completely agree with you 1152 01:01:30,040 --> 01:01:32,280 there. Now regards to quantum 1153 01:01:32,280 --> 01:01:35,720 computing, I, I just, I don't know enough. 1154 01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:40,480 What what I do know is that, you know, it's like the way that the 1155 01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:42,360 computer is like built essentially. 1156 01:01:42,360 --> 01:01:46,120 It basically allows it to, allows the binary to be in a, in 1157 01:01:46,160 --> 01:01:50,160 a, in a quantum state. So it basically it's able to 1158 01:01:50,160 --> 01:01:52,280 guess numbers a lot faster than the traditional. 1159 01:01:52,280 --> 01:01:55,040 That's basically what I know. To be fair, I don't want to put 1160 01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:58,480 myself out as I'm neither a cryptographer nor quantum, a 1161 01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:00,880 computing expert. I am a Bitcoin researcher and I 1162 01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:04,640 attended that this conference in in San Francisco last week for 1163 01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:08,320 the purpose of learning what people are thinking and working 1164 01:02:08,320 --> 01:02:11,440 on, not because I'm myself contributing to the quantum 1165 01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:15,400 research. And I will say there is, I also 1166 01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:18,280 am told and and witnessed and told by a lot of smart people 1167 01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:20,560 that they, they're not close at all. 1168 01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:23,440 I think the the issue is they have made a couple breakthroughs 1169 01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:27,240 that make it plausible that there could be the additional 1170 01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:30,520 breakthroughs that one day lead to the cryptographically 1171 01:02:30,520 --> 01:02:34,040 relevant quantum computer. So like it's not close in like a 1172 01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:38,400 linear standpoint, right. And, and, and also point out 1173 01:02:38,400 --> 01:02:41,600 that some very smart actual cryptographers I know, like 1174 01:02:41,600 --> 01:02:44,800 Peter Willa, like Bob Miguelrath, are not concerned at 1175 01:02:44,800 --> 01:02:46,040 all and don't think will ever happen. 1176 01:02:46,040 --> 01:02:49,120 So, you know, to me, I think it's fine. 1177 01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:51,160 I, I, I certainly don't want people to think that I'm 1178 01:02:51,160 --> 01:02:53,840 spreading it like FUD very much the opposite. 1179 01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:57,160 I do think it could happen. And so bit corners. 1180 01:02:57,160 --> 01:02:59,600 I mean, a lot of people like to say, well, surely the nuclear 1181 01:02:59,600 --> 01:03:02,120 launch codes are like Wall Street are like at risk too, 1182 01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:05,760 like, you know, as some kind of the argument, like it's like a 1183 01:03:05,760 --> 01:03:08,600 what about ISM argument? And I say, well, yeah, I mean, 1184 01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:12,200 anything that uses cryptography, if this happens could be at 1185 01:03:12,200 --> 01:03:14,760 risk, right? But surely it's somebody else's 1186 01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:16,920 job to work on the nuclear launch codes and Wall Street. 1187 01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:18,920 That's not our job. Like that's somebody else's job. 1188 01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:21,160 But like, if you care about Bitcoin and you own Bitcoin, 1189 01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:24,040 then maybe it is your job to get involved and think about how 1190 01:03:24,040 --> 01:03:25,960 solving it. So I I think the nihilism in the 1191 01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:29,560 face of what could be a big deal is also very short sighted and 1192 01:03:30,240 --> 01:03:32,480 and not helpful. So I'm very supportive of people 1193 01:03:32,480 --> 01:03:35,720 thinking about all different types of threat models that 1194 01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:37,880 could impact Bitcoin, including Quantum. 1195 01:03:39,080 --> 01:03:41,280 Gotcha. Well, if you have any final 1196 01:03:41,280 --> 01:03:46,200 thoughts for the audience and what you think don't want to 1197 01:03:46,200 --> 01:03:49,520 hold you to it, but you know what do you think where where is 1198 01:03:49,520 --> 01:03:52,800 the price of Bitcoin at the end of the year and what are your 1199 01:03:52,800 --> 01:03:54,880 final thoughts towards anybody who. 1200 01:03:56,200 --> 01:04:01,000 Yeah, in December of 24, I said in published research saying 1201 01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:05,000 that it could hit, it would hit as a prediction 185 K U.S. 1202 01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:08,920 dollars during Q4 of this year. I still think that's very much 1203 01:04:08,920 --> 01:04:10,280 in play. I'm not really. 1204 01:04:10,880 --> 01:04:12,320 I was asked if I would adjust that. 1205 01:04:13,040 --> 01:04:17,120 I'm not adjusting it. I think that's bullish and also 1206 01:04:17,120 --> 01:04:20,640 fair. I think look, I think to me, 1207 01:04:20,760 --> 01:04:24,600 I've been dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin for at this point 1208 01:04:25,480 --> 01:04:29,760 years and and I view it as a savings technology with extreme 1209 01:04:30,120 --> 01:04:33,600 sovereignty properties as well as transactional capabilities. 1210 01:04:33,600 --> 01:04:37,280 And I think that's just an unbelievably powerful thing. 1211 01:04:37,280 --> 01:04:40,760 I think when you compare it to other digital assets, it is the 1212 01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:45,160 best single asset. It's not the most composable 1213 01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:47,640 network, right. There are others that have more 1214 01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:52,120 features, but I, I think, you know, when you look at it and I 1215 01:04:52,120 --> 01:04:54,680 and I say this and, and, and someone, you know, we write 1216 01:04:54,680 --> 01:04:57,240 research about all crypto markets. 1217 01:04:57,240 --> 01:05:00,520 You know, I think there are interesting things you can't 1218 01:05:00,520 --> 01:05:02,120 really do stable coins on Bitcoin. 1219 01:05:02,120 --> 01:05:03,960 Sure, you could do something like the Omni network like 1220 01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:07,480 Tether used to like stable coins broadly are not happening on 1221 01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:09,120 Bitcoin and that I think that's OK. 1222 01:05:09,120 --> 01:05:12,360 I think it's, it's great for Bitcoin to be focused on the 1223 01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:16,280 sovereignty store value, a censorship resistance properties 1224 01:05:16,280 --> 01:05:20,840 of its asset like BTC. The asset is a revolutionary 1225 01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:24,280 asset that I think everybody should know about, should 1226 01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:26,440 consider whether they want to own some of. 1227 01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:29,880 And I think particularly as you go into this, I mean, we are 1228 01:05:29,880 --> 01:05:33,480 certainly I think through in my view Pax Americana, right. 1229 01:05:33,480 --> 01:05:36,280 It was that it's like 91 fall of the Soviet Union to like, I 1230 01:05:36,600 --> 01:05:39,680 don't know, maybe like 911 or 2010 somewhere after maybe after 1231 01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:42,800 the great financial crisis. But today, I think it's now very 1232 01:05:42,800 --> 01:05:47,400 clear with how the world is treating our debt and, you know, 1233 01:05:48,080 --> 01:05:51,000 declining demand to use U.S. dollars and things like 1234 01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:54,160 international trade settlement and sovereign wealth funds that 1235 01:05:54,160 --> 01:05:57,680 we are probably in a more multi polar world. 1236 01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:02,320 The dollar is absolutely still the best, you know, of the 1237 01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:04,600 worst, which are the all the Fiat currencies. 1238 01:06:05,080 --> 01:06:07,720 But I, I think demand for debt is waning. 1239 01:06:07,720 --> 01:06:12,680 I think stablecoins can help, you know, continue and maybe 1240 01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:14,640 grow dollar dominance relative to the others. 1241 01:06:14,640 --> 01:06:16,960 But it does feel like the cat is out of the bag. 1242 01:06:17,520 --> 01:06:20,360 The world is going to be more and more ready over time for a 1243 01:06:20,360 --> 01:06:22,800 global decentralized, non sovereign, digital scarce 1244 01:06:23,080 --> 01:06:27,480 commodity money like Bitcoin. And I think, you know, 16 years 1245 01:06:27,480 --> 01:06:30,640 in now to this Bitcoin thing and Bitcoin still 60 plus percent of 1246 01:06:30,640 --> 01:06:34,280 the entire crypto market. And that's with 10s of millions 1247 01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:37,720 of coins having been launched. So I just encourage people, 1248 01:06:37,720 --> 01:06:41,000 even, you know, friends of of mine who are interested in other 1249 01:06:41,000 --> 01:06:44,640 digital assets, clients and counterparties of Galaxy will 1250 01:06:44,640 --> 01:06:46,400 not be surprised to hear me say this. 1251 01:06:46,840 --> 01:06:49,880 I say this all the time. Surely you must have considered 1252 01:06:49,880 --> 01:06:54,680 a Bitcoin position if you're already deep down the altcoin 1253 01:06:55,000 --> 01:06:56,520 rabbit hole. I do think there are other 1254 01:06:56,520 --> 01:06:59,200 interesting things happening crypto, then it's not all scams, 1255 01:06:59,200 --> 01:07:02,920 but I think you're crazy if you're, if you're not already 1256 01:07:03,360 --> 01:07:06,040 owning Bitcoin before you look at the rest of the stuff in this 1257 01:07:06,040 --> 01:07:08,600 market. That's what I'll say. 1258 01:07:08,600 --> 01:07:12,480 I'll leave it there, Nico. Well, Alex Thorne, thank you so 1259 01:07:12,480 --> 01:07:14,440 much for joining me on Simply Bitcoin IRO. 1260 01:07:14,440 --> 01:07:15,640 I really, really appreciate it. Guys. 1261 01:07:15,640 --> 01:07:19,840 You can find more about Alex, go give him a follow on Twitter if 1262 01:07:19,840 --> 01:07:24,560 you're not already doing so. It's intangible coins at 1263 01:07:24,560 --> 01:07:26,760 intangible coins. Alex, thank you so much for 1264 01:07:26,760 --> 01:07:27,520 joining me. Thank you, Nico.