Literally hours ago, MicroStrategy, or formerly
MicroStrategy, now Strategy, is officially qualified for
inclusion into the S&P 500. This is not only massive for
Trad 5, but this could change everything for Bitcoin.
Could MSTR inclusion finally help to explain Michael Saylor's
fascinating theory about the next Bitcoin bear market?
Let's take a listen to it. How do you expect the asset to
continue a price increase at these levels that we've seen?
I mean, can it keep that up over the next five years, over the
next 10 years? And at what point do we see, you
know, winter coming again, because that's been a a
permanent fixture of of this asset class, right?
It's gone from 0 or 1000 to 20 and then back down to three or
four and then up to 50 and then back down to 15 and now up to
110. Like when does it drop again?
Winners not coming back, we're past that.
We're past that phase. If bitcoins not going to 0, it's
going to $1,000,000 and you have all the evidence you need to
determine that, right? The president of the United
States has determined he supports Bitcoin.
The cabinet supports Bitcoin. Scott Peasant supports Bitcoin.
Paul Atkins has shown himself to be an enthusiastic believer of
Bitcoin and digital assets. Ken Tez at CFTC feels the same.
Ray, the the banks are going to custody Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is has gotten through its riskiest period.
The accounting has been corrected.
There's now only 450 Bitcoin a day available for Sale by
natural sellers. That's the miners.
At this level, that works out to about $50 million of Bitcoin
available for sale every day. If that $50 million is bought,
then the price has got to move up to find any natural, any, any
seller that's price sensitive. Now, if you do the math, you'll
actually see the Bitcoin treasury companies by themselves
are buying the entire natural supply.
Yeah, BlackRock and the ETFs are buying another measure of that.
And we've got nation state actors coming into the space.
So I think when Bitcoin rallies, if it surges to 500,000 or
$1,000,000, then maybe we could talk about it crashing down by a
$200,000 a coin. But at the current price levels,
it only takes $50,000,000 to turn the entire drive shaft of
the crypto economy. One turn and you've got the
Trump Media Organization announcing 2 1/2 billion.
You've got GameStop announcing 500 million.
You've got my company that's raising billions and billions of
dollars. So the writing is on the wall.
Bitcoins moving higher. Let's go wow.
Before we go in and break down this article, I do want to
acknowledge the fact that this clip was like, I don't know, 2-3
months ago and the price ticker was exactly the price that we're
at today, Nico. So I did the poll in the chat.
Is winter coming? Who knows who knows exactly, but
I mean, his point remained the same.
We, we've been saying this on the show for a while.
What is going on right now makes absolutely no sense.
Like the math around this makes absolutely no sense.
If this amount of capital is coming into Bitcoin, the amount
of Bitcoin that is being released daily, which
historically has been kind of what needs to get eaten up
before the price starts running. It just, it makes absolutely no
sense. Though you do have to bring in
that extra factor of all the coins that are hitting
exchanges. I don't know if you guys saw
over the weekend, but we saw another huge OG tranche hit the
exchanges. I think it was another 20, 4000
coins. I think they broke off like 3K
and they're continuing selling. So there's a lot of coins
hitting the exchanges right now. So this clip right here, you
know, that math that Sailor laid out for us, it really does
explain kind of like the the macro dynamics playing out.
It's not really factoring a lot of people that are currently
selling right now. But I don't know, Nico, before
we break this down, what's your I know we've talked about this
clip before the you know, winter isn't coming.
And I was literally saying it this morning while I was in the
gym. It's like, man, you know, right
now, it really feels like one of those times where you have to
like out trade your emotions because emotionally we're all
drained. We're all like, man, is this
dump coming? Are we, are we double topping
here? What is going on?
Because the price should be going up, but it's always
dumpiest before it's pumpiest. And so when you feel like you
should be selling your Bitcoin, that's probably when you should
be acquiring it. And if you're being honest with
yourself, I think we're all I know we're we're we're stupidly
bullish here every single day. But if you're looking at the
price right now and you all are following the price and what's
going on, you can see the market sentiment.
It does make you almost want to puke, but you're like, that's
why I I know it's going to start ripping.
So before we get into the big announcement, Nico, let's just
let's just double back on what Saylor was saying.
Is the winter coming? Nico, you've been having a lot
more conversations with other bitcoiners.
So are you still bearish? Oh, oh, am I losing you?
Oh, there you are. You're back.
You're back.
I've been having these, I've been having these existential
thoughts, right? And I think that's the key thing
to phrase here. Or you're not, dude, you're
Internet. It's wack.
Refresh. Refresh.
And I'll break down this story. Refresh.
Yeah, Refresh. All right, Nico.
Has a really bad Internet again today.
I thought we fixed that. Anyways, here is the headline
for you guys, so let me see if it pops up.
Yes, it does. This one's on Yahoo Finance.
They are using Coindesk. The original kind of news break
did come out of Bloomberg, I believe, but I don't have the
Bloomberg Terminal anymore, so we're going to use Yahoo Finance
here anyway. The headline is strategy
qualifies for S&P 500 inclusion decision could come on Friday.
So by Friday, we won't know if strategy is included into the
S&P 500 now. The.
Really big game changer of this is so many people have the S&P
500 in their portfolios. It's basically passive income
coming into, you know the S&P 500.
And so if this is playing out and of course sailor stock
continues to rise well this ATM basically him getting loans,
acquiring more Bitcoin. The flywheel, as it's been
known, is going to accelerate and go into OverDrive.
And now I, I forget what the numbers is, but 10s of millions
of people are now going to be passively, tactically investing
in Bitcoin. Are you back?
Yeah, it seems like you're. Back.
I am, I am back, I am back. Sorry guys, I don't know what
I've been trying to fix this for the last week or so and I don't
know, there's just, I don't know hotel Wi-Fi.
But the point that I wanted to make is this point, and I think
it's very, very fitting for Opti what you were talking about in
the beginning of show. And this is a post by Vijay
Boyapati, right? And it kind of goes along the
theme that you're talking about Opti where it's like, OK, like
like what is, is winter coming back, right?
It is, is the is winter even a thing?
Is it even a possibility anymore?
And this is something that I think a lot of Bitcoiners,
especially if you're like me and Opti that are like these
dopamine addicts from class of 20/16/2017, you know, we're used
to that parabola. We're used to that like
parabolic run. Now we don't know if that is
over. We might still be getting that
at the end at the Q4, we're in Q4 right now, so after.
September Q3Q3Q3 starts in what, like a week or two?
No, dude, this is Q4. This is Q4, bro.
Yeah, this is the last four months of the year.
Literally today is the first year.
Well, it's the last three months, Bro 4.
Four quarters, three months come.
On, you're right, you're right, you're right, you're absolutely
right. But the point is, is that Q4 of
the year after the halving tends to be explosive, right?
And we're a month away from that.
But one of the things that I posted this morning was I said,
hey guys, at the beginning of the year, our live stream, me
and Opti would spin up a live stream and it would have 1000
live viewer, like 1500 live years just on YouTube alone,
right? Not even counting the other
platforms and everyone was hyped out of their minds.
I never forgot that that it felt like yesterday that was
happening. And the reason that that was
happening was because of the new administration coming in and the
day Trump was inaugurated. You know what the Bitcoin price
was 109,009 months later, Nine months a baby.
It gets developed and birthed in nine months.
It takes nine months for that process to happen.
It's a long time. Think about it, a year of your
life, almost a year of your life has passed and the price of
Bitcoin is at $108,745. And what has happened in between
was the price went down to 76. This is the year after the
having like, this is what is going on right now where this
is, this is weird. This is not what we're used to.
And I know you get a lot of, and I, and I have so much respect
for these guys. And I and I admire their work
and admire the, you know, the, the stuff that they're doing and
the articles they're putting together and, and, and the
analytics. And I agree with a lot of them.
But look, guys, the reality is this.
It's a very simple reality. If the price hasn't moved in
nine months, we're not in a bull market.
It's not by definition, it's not a bull market.
Someone in the chat saying BTC stablecoin, Yeah, of course
that's what it feels like. And this is what I've been
joking about. And a lot of people are making
fun of me, you know, and they say, but Nico, it's been going
good. And I know I'm nitpicking the
the time, OK? Because to be fair, you know,
bitcoins performed fantastically over the last three years.
It's it's performed incredibly. So it's done super, super well,
don't get me wrong. But this is the year after the
halving. Historically, this is when price
number goes up. Now we can still get that in Q4,
right? Everyone knows October is very
famous for that. But what if October doesn't
happen? What if we don't get an October?
What if moving forward and Vijay Boyapati said this and I know
someone else said this who's really smart?
He said the path of maximum pain is perhaps the path of maximum
boredom. Slow grind up followed by
periodic but fairly shallow resets with no blow off top and
no gut turning. Corrections bro.
Oh Opti, how do you feel about that?
That was posted the last day of August, so yesterday.
How do you feel about that post? Honestly, the more, the longer
we are going in this year, the more I am starting to really
lean into we're going to be bored to death to a million.
Like we've been joking for a while.
You know, you pump crab or pump, dump crab, repeat.
And that's like the cycle we're at.
With that being said, though, I, I'm still waiting for the
parabolic run here. And, and this is just like a
vibe check, you know, like I'm, I'm in your walking vibe check
here, 'cause you, you guys see me go through the emotions every
single day. And as much as I really, I was
literally complaining about this morning with Nico, like I'm
like, man, can we get a pump, man?
Like can we get a pump? And then we went down like, you
know, the whale numbers right now of, of how much coin they're
dropping. And like, man, we're so broke
compared to these whales. Like this sucks.
As much as I really would love and I, I'm basically at this
point need a pump just to like feel something again.
I'm just like dead inside here. I would.
I would, honestly. Prefer.
This playing out and having less of a the bear market, like if we
have no more bear market ever again.
I am so with that because I think I'm more traumatized of
the last bear market than I am of the 2021 double top.
The last bear market was brutal for us.
You know we we fully committed to simply Bitcoin during the
bear. It was rough man you know being
all in on Bitcoin in every aspect of your life is rough
during a bear market. So I would love to eliminate
bear markets. I'm totally with that That
sounds way nicer to me. Hey, if that means we're a
stablecoin now I will take the stability of Bitcoin and not
have 80% drawdowns again. No, I really want another pump
Nico I I need I need some games. I I not not only for the Fiat
price, it's really for the dopamine kick like waking up
every morning and seeing the price just start ripping.
It's just so much more fun. You know, I, I, I like, I love
bear markets, but I love just how stupid everyone gets on
Twitter during the bull runs. They're just so much fun.
Everyone's losing their minds. That's the fun I want.
That's the fun I'm looking for for Q4.
So who knows, man? We are addicts.
We legitimately are addicts. I'm not even going to lie about
you. I'm an addict for the price.
Anyways, Niko, keep going. Yeah, keep going.
No, you absolutely hit the nail on the head, man.
I think you know, I I think especially if you're from the
earlier classes, you know this, this is uneventful.
I don't care what anyone says. I just do not care.
I don't care. I know, I understand that what
you're saying, the argument that what you're saying.
I don't want to name any names there because these guys are my
friends, right? But like, I get what you're
saying in terms of like, OK, Nico, but like, All in all,
we're up. Like, we're doing really, really
well. We're up 16% year, year to date,
Nico, it's so great. Man, I get that argument.
I get that argument, and it's a true argument.
Like if you look at the last three years in Bitcoin
percentage terms, yeah, fantastic, fantastic return.
You cannot deny that, right? The bottom was 16,000 and we're
at 108,000. It's a fantastic return.
Where else are you going to get those types of return?
They don't exist unless you take you take a huge risk and Bitcoin
like I, I, I've seen Bitcoin as a sure thing for a long time
now, right. So, you know, that's the
conversation. I think that that post by VJ
kind of summarizes it like what if the era of parabolas is over?
What if we are now entering bitcoins, a maturing asset.
The market cap is so big that you know what it's going to go
up. It's just the, the, the years
that it goes up 100 or 200 or 300%, those years are gone.
You know, those years are gone, those years are gone.
Those years don't exist anymore, but a Goodyear could still be
50%. Now, let me tell you guys
something. If you guys get a 50% return on
on your investment in a year, you're crushing the game.
You're doing really well, right? So and now if you compound that,
because that's the beauty of Bitcoin, it's not just 50% one
year and then it goes down, it's 50% compounding.
Now, if you take a look at Sailor's theory, right, he
believes it's going to go from 40 down to 30 and then
eventually down to 20 over the next 20 over the next 20 years.
If you compound those types of returns year over year for 20
years, that's how you get to $13 million per coin.
I think he actually even updated his his price prediction to like
something like 2024 million, right?
So, yeah, I mean, that's effing fantastic.
Like that's a that's an incredible, incredible,
incredible, incredible return. But again, as Bitcoiners, we are
spoiled children. We're spoiled children, Opti
like, let's just admit it. Let's admit we have a problem.
Let's admit that we are spoiled, right?
Let let's just. Admit I I just admitted I'm an
addict. I all right, guys, first step is
admitting I'm an addict. OK?
We we are admitting we are price addict.
Yeah, I'm a price addict here. But hey, Nico, actually you said
something and it reminded me of a different story.
And, and I'm, I'm don't I, I'm going to cover this S&P 500 news
for you, but this was also on Yahoo this morning.
And it's literally, you know, and, and we're not here to like
confirm our bias via Yahoo news, but they're saying exactly this.
You know, Bitcoin is getting boring.
That could open more doors for the crypto asset on Wall Street.
And essentially the first paragraph is like the wild price
swings has come down this year. Key reason JP Morgan analysts
are saying that companies rapidly stockpiling the asset is
probably the reason. And then going further down
here, where is this? There's a quote here.
So it goes the by lowering Bitcoin volatility, these new
buyers can make Bitcoin quote more attractive from a valuation
point of view, adding that as its volatility drops, Bitcoin
could become more a more competitive alternative to gold.
And while volatility doesn't equal outright investment risk,
it represents a key component. So, you know as much as we, as
you know, Bitcoin price junkies want to.
See it RIP. Again, there's a whole new
investor in the space and this does lead into.
If MicroStrategy does get added to the S&P 500, that they're
obviously looking at Bitcoin, yes, they want returns.
And like Nigo keeps saying, you know what, fifteen 3050%
returns, like those are good returns.
If you are looking at from the Wall Street perspective, from
our perspective, it's like, man, we don't even get up out of bed
for a 15% return here, you know, but the last three years we're
up like 650% or something like that.
So let's break this down a little bit because this is
probably what is fundamentally shifting.
And I don't know if you guys have been seeing I, I've been
mentioning Mitchell Harto on here a lot.
We're seeing more people kind of catch on to this trend that the
market is changing. It's always different because
you know, as the Zencoe and goes, you never step into the
same river twice. But things are fundamentally
changing because there is a whole new investor.
And as I've been kind of covering lately, this idea that
institutional capital is here and retail is getting freaking
swept up by institutions right now.
They're acquiring all of the Bitcoin that's being released.
There's no retail interest right now.
The volume is dead. And this new investor is looking
at Bitcoin a little differently. They do want to see it less
volatile. Now, does this mean the ETFs and
all that has neutered all the fun here in Bitcoin?
And I know there's probably people in the chat like I
remember when you guys wouldn't talk about the price, bro.
Like you guys are talking about that constantly.
And it's like this is where we are right now.
This is the news. This is what's fundamentally
changing here. Yes, there's still the
separation of money and state. Yes, there's still a lot of
freedom minded, you know, tech dystopia news that we can be
covering. But the main question on
everyone's head right now is what is going on right now?
This is supposed to be the parabolic run and we haven't
seen it, as we've said, you know, since what, nine months?
We're basically a stable coin. It's been 109 K Bitcoin for over
9 months at this point. But as we're seeing new
investors come into the space, as we're seeing a whole new risk
tolerance come into the space, it is going for a moment to kind
of shift markets. Structure and if you're coming
in from you know, say JP Morgan BlackRock, you don't want to see
crazy downside, you know price movement.
So this volatility is probably a sign of good things for other
people for us bitcoiners were like, man, this is this is not
what we signed up for here but anyways, let's let's break this
down a little bit and then we'll chat about it.
So strategy qualifies for S&P 500 inclusion decision and it
could come on Friday. Micro strategy now officially
strategy has officially qualified for potential
inclusion into the S&P 500 after posting one of the strongest
quarters in its history in the second quarter of 2025, the
company reported $14 billion in operating income and $10 billion
in net income, equal to 32.6 dollars in diluted earnings per
share. Quarterly revenue came in at
114.5 million, a modest 2.7% increase.
Year over year with with. Subscription services rising
nearly 70%. The results mark a dramatic turn
around from prior years when impairment charges tied to
Bitcoin depressed reported earnings.
Of course, the fair value accounting is now in play here.
They were the first ones to adopt this.
And so Strategy can now recognize its unrealized gains.
And of course, with it around 100K, the company booked massive
quote paper gains that transformed its balance sheet.
Now as of June 30th, Strategy held 597,000.
I think it's higher than this. I think they're in the 600K and
the firm highlighted a Bitcoin yield of 19.7 year today, a key
performance indicator. Now they raised their
guidelines. Of course, everyone kind of saw
this the other day and they kind of moved some of the things
around. They are taking a little more
risk right now and people started to completely freak out
on the Internet. And so here's the here's the key
here. The next potential window for
inclusion is September 2025 rebalance, with announcements
expected September 5th and changes taking effect September
19th. While the S&P Dow Jones Indices
Committee retains discretion strategies, qualification
underscores the growing role of Bitcoin in mainstream financial
markets. That is probably the big key
here. Again, with their new
qualification, under score underscores the growing role of
Bitcoin in mainstream financial markets.
If 2025 doesn't have a great price here, what we are seeing
is Bitcoin is, for lack of better terms being accepted
here. They are looking at Bitcoin now.
Like holy shit, we actually have to hold this thing.
This is no longer anything we can ignore.
The biggest players in the world are looking into Bitcoin and it
would be the first of course, Bitcoin treasury company need to
enter the benchmark index symbolizing a landmark moment.
So if this does happen, this would be one of those defining,
defining moments here in Bitcoin's history.
And I, I've been saying 2025, I think is one of those years
where maybe we don't see the purchasing power increase that,
that we've seen in the past. But it will be one of those
years where we look back in 2025 was like that defining year
where everything was laid out and then Bitcoin can really make
its run. So if the market does change
here, I think that is going to set up what Sailor is saying of
no winter ever again because there does seem to be an
infinite bid building up right now under Bitcoin.
And hey, that just means all of our savings.
That means our perfect money. Our money is just going to
increase in value and we can, you know, feel a little better
about it. But why isn't the price going
up? I think that's the the the
$1,000,000, the million satoshi question.
Someone someone says. So basically, it's over.
Back it up, it's done. I saw someone in the chat talk
about the S curve, right? And this is kind of like a
theory behind a lot of Bitcoiners, right?
A lot of bitcoiners have this theory, which is the S curve
adoption, right? So you have, you know, the
innovators, early adopters, early majority.
My personal opinion is we're like in the early majority
phase, in the beginning of the early majority phase.
We're no longer in the early adopter phase.
No, no, no, no, we're way past that, way past the innovator
phase. We're definitely in the early
majority phase going up this curve.
Now the question is, and this is like the key difference between
people's opinions, right? By the way, AUS fantastic show
today, 754 people watching live on YouTube.
Shout out to the rumble audience coming in strong and then on X
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content. This is simply Bitcoin live.
So let's talk about this right? So have we crossed the chasm?
Opti? Have we crossed the chasm?
I think we're crossing it. I think we're crossing it right
now. I think this is what the chasm
is like. We're seeing new interest from
new investors in Bitcoin. We're seeing Bitcoin talked
about at the highest levels. We're seeing nation states start
to kind of dip their toes into Bitcoin.
We're seeing, you know, the ETF for Bitcoin just being launched.
So it's what, a year old now? It's like almost two years old
now, a year, nine months or something like that.
And it is the best performing ETF ever.
Like we're seeing Sailor just finally being able to tap into
these capital markets. It's like, I think this is the
chasm being crossed right now, like we are crossing the Rubicon
as we speak, and this is probably why we are seeing, you
know, just a bunch of funky movements in the market.
We're seeing things like not really play out how it's it
happened in the past. It does seem like the, you know,
four year cycle might be changing here.
It looks like we're in the longest bear cycle ever.
It's like things are finally changing here.
So I I'm, I'm leaning on we are at the chasm right now, like
we're in the beginning of it. Maybe 2025 is the year.
The chasm. It's a chasm, chasm, chasm.
I think you're right. And then we have let me
pronounce that name correctly. We have sat wise Jinx in the
chat and here's the the big difference between I think what
Bitcoiners are talking about. So like are we on this type of
bell curve adoption or are we on this type of bell curve
adoption? S curve, S curve, right.
So the bell curve and then the S curve, right.
And if we are in the S curve, where where is the S where is
the curve? Right dude, Chasm.
Right here, bro. Chasm.
You think it's the chasm. So the chasm is the sideways,
the sideways sideways. Sideways.
Honestly, is that not what we're?
Not what? We're doing right now sad, flat
and sideways. I want to know what the audience
thinks. We're about to break out 800
live viewers. Guys, where do you think we are
in the Bitcoin price adoption? Wait Nico, so you go go, go
down. Does this have a time on the on
the X axis? Is this is there time?
No. There's RND effort which I don't
think it applies. To this so wait.
Let me, let me let me do a finger.
Yeah, yeah. So the next five years bro, is
when we. Is when we get the real run up
past the mill. That's just gonna blow up.
Could you imagine that that would that would take everyone
by storm. Well, let's I I really.
Want to know what that's my thesis?
Yeah, let let we'll we'll chat you guys talk about in the chat,
but that's literally the thesis here.
It's like, look, guys, you understand Bitcoin and even
within our quote UN quote industry, there's still a lot of
people that are shit corners that don't really understand
what game is being played here. There's still people on Wall
Street that probably haven't even taken the time to
understand what Bitcoin is. They're just maybe here, you
know, throwing, throwing a little bit of chump change at it
and being like, whatever, like give me the games.
If you kind of take that conversation further and you
talk to people that aren't Bitcoiners, that aren't on
Twitter, like your friends and your family, most of them
probably still think we're crazy.
They still, they don't understand the fundamental
problem. And and that just leads me to
believe it's like someone said in the chat earlier, we're like
not even 1% of the bond markets right now and everyone thinks
it's over. It's like, I think it's just
starting to begin. There's not that much capital in
Bitcoin. There's not that many people
that are that fervent about what Bitcoin is and trying to
accumulate Bitcoin. And so if you think the gains
are over, you think it's diminishing returns.
It's like we're not even at like 1% of the total population, like
wait till we get to, you know, 5 or 10%.
And that's when the real fun's happening.
But you know, I guess, I guess This is why we can't have nice
things, Nico is because. Everyone's asleep at the wheel.
Oh my God. So guys, let us know.
I want to go. I want to go.
I want to see what everyone's thinking.
Yeah, this is the best thing to cater right here, Nico.
Only 700. People watching this globally
were early. Yeah, yeah.
I mean for being the number one watch live show, right, that,
that definitely says we're early for sure still in innovators,
someone says Sublime says we're in the it's over section.
Yes, Curve, let me see early, early majority, early majority S
curve, I would, I would agree with that.
But I think, I think Opti's right.
We're in the cash. Now this one's the best. 1 John,
we're in the cash. John Tinkler.
Junior look at the adoption. Percentages at the bottom of the
chart. We are in the first phase.
Honestly, I kind of agree with that.
You think so dude? Well, that's it bro.
We are literally less than I, I think the numbers are inflated.
I don't think we're at 3% of global adoption of Bitcoin yet.
Like maybe that's the official number, but it I don't think
we're at 3% yet. I don't know, I don't know.
If you guys are enjoying today's show, make sure to smash that
like button. We still have a ton of content
leftover for you guys. We got Jeff Booth, he went on
Kitco News. He was dropping some hot fire.
We're going to be talking about that.
And then also some interesting news coming out of Metaplanet.
So for anyone who doesn't know a lot of these treasury companies,
in percentage terms, their stocks are down like 5060%, but
what are they doing? They're still trying to raise
money to buy more Bitcoin. How does that work, right?
Think about that for a second. So like, if your stock is down
50 or 60%, how is the market convinced to give you more money
to buy more Bitcoin? Like, what does that work?
And again, that's never happened before.
We're in completely uncharted territory for the Bitcoin
treasury companies. And there is a phenomenal
article written by Bloomberg talking about just that.
And of course, Opti's got something special for you guys
during the culture like always. But before we get into all of
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All right everybody, no more delay, let's start the show.
We have tons to talk about. Hit the smash button, we'll be
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At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is $108,600.
Block height 912,000 $729 or 29 not dollars.
Sats per dollar 921 Sats per dollar Market cap 2.16 trillion
Bitcoin versus gold market cap 8.76% decline from all time
high. If you're buying Bitcoin right
now, you're getting it at a almost 13% discount.
Realize monetary inflation sitting at .84%.
In the grand scheme of things, we are just getting the party
started anyways. The one the only the legendary
Jeff Booth went on Kik Go and he's talking about something
really interesting. When you really understand it
and you're constantly a buyer. There's never a price that's too
high. I completely agree with that
statement, but I can't explain it like Jeff Booth explains it.
So let's let's check out the clip and then me and Opti will
talk about it any. Volatile any, any legitimacy to
those concerns on volatility when it comes to, hey, you know,
we're looking at these stock charts every day.
I mean, sovereign funds aren't there to trade.
So if you're not there to trade, then you should be in this.
If you're in the to trade, if you're trying to that, then you
shouldn't be in this. So if you're, if you're levering
into to something that's changing the world, a new
structure for the world that can't be cheated, that is
repricing everything and you're trading that, then then you
could get wiped out because and that's just that's just an
early, that's an early evolution of an understanding of this,
that fear and greed on both sides are trying to trade this
asset. But when you really understand
it, you're constantly a buyer. You there's never a price that's
too high. I buy in a low.
I buy in the high that constantly like because I don't
think about the piece of paper that's being manipulated pricing
the world. OK, so let's talk about what
Jeff Booth says, right? This is something that Michael
Saylor has said as well, right? What is it that you are buying?
It's a very important question because right now like any
disposable income I have that I'm not using to, you know, pay
for a living expenses that I have for me and my family, why
would I put that in? Why would I leave that in cash?
Like why? It makes no sense.
There's zero sense to it. If I know that cash is going to
buy me less goods next year, why would I leave that cat?
Why would I leave that extra money in?
Cash makes no sense now, I don't think, and I know this might be
unpopular with some bitcoiners, but right now we're still not in
a world where you can live completely off your Bitcoin.
I think you still need Fiat. Like if you run, specifically if
you run a business, not all landlords, not all mortgage
providers, not all your bills could be paid in Bitcoin.
Like I know that there's companies that facilitate that,
that make that easier, that make that easy, but you can't do it
directly with your stack. It's not like at the end of the
month you go and you take your hardware wallet and you're like,
OK, dot dot dot dot, let me just pay off these bills.
There's a process that you need to go through in order to, you
know, to do that. And I know that there's Bitcoin
companies that that facilitate that and they're awesome and we
love here. We love them at simply Bitcoin.
But let's just say Fiat is still somehow involved, right?
So if you have that, that pot of Fiat that you're going to tap
into to live off of every month, right?
What about that extra? So like, let's say you have, you
know, 10 or 20%, you know, you're getting to the end of the
month, you know that you have income coming in the next month
and you're like, what am I going to do with this extra money that
I have? Are you just going to leave it
in the account? Maybe you want to spend it, you
maybe you want to enjoy yourself.
Maybe you want to go out and have a nice dinner.
Maybe you want to go on vacation, whatever.
But let's say it's just a regular month and you're not
doing any of those things. Very what are you going to do?
Are you going to leave it in cash?
No, you're going to buy Bitcoin. Now, Does it matter if Bitcoin
is at all time highs? No, you're going to, you're
going to buy Bitcoin because you know that it doesn't matter
whether the price of Bitcoin is at 108,000 today.
There's a pretty reasonably high probability that the purchasing
power of that said Bitcoin the next year is going to be higher
than it is this year. Then why in the hell would I
leave my money in Fiat? And that's what Jeff Booth is
talking about. And now one of the other pieces
of wisdom that I'll drop for you guys is don't denominate your
wealth in dollars or EUR or whatever local currency you
have. Denominate your wealth in
Bitcoin. Your life will completely
change. It will completely change if you
denominate your wealth in Fiat. It's like a you're on a you're
on a rat wheel like it it you're that goal is going to $1,000,000
today isn't what $1,000,000 was 10 years ago, $1,000,000 today
isn't what $1,000,000 was 20 years ago.
It's not the same. One Bitcoin today is not the
same that what what one Bitcoin was 10 years ago.
It's that it's the exact opposite of what Fiat goes
through. So Fiat buys you less, Bitcoin
buys you more, right? So with that logic, this is what
Jeff Booth is talking about. Even at Bitcoin at $1,000,000 if
I have extra income or $10 million if I have extra income,
I'm not going to leave it in something that is devaluing over
time. That makes absolutely no sense
for me. I'm going to put it in Bitcoin
or I'm going to put it in something that I think is going
to outperform Bitcoin, which is very, very few things.
I might add very few things. I'm going to repeat that.
Very few things are going to outperform Bitcoin.
Very few things, very few stocks, very few real estate
investments, very few things are going to outperform Bitcoin.
So if you don't think you're going to outperform Bitcoin,
then why not just buy more Bitcoin?
That's what Jeff Booth is talking about.
If you have savings, if you have some extra money on the side,
what are you going to do with it?
You're going to buy Bitcoin. That's what he meant.
So it doesn't matter where what the price is.
The price could be a $10 million per coin.
You're still going to buy Bitcoin because you don't want
to hold on to Fiat because Fiat is devaluing that.
That's the simple truth. Now, are you going to get those
100X or 200X gains and, you know, in a short period of time?
I mean, we, we, the whole beginning of the show, we were
just discussing about it. Me and Opti were throwing a pity
party for ourselves, really thinking about it.
Like, Oh my God, bro, the 2017 glory days are over.
It's done. It's, it's over.
Wrap it up, bro. You know, like now we're a
stonks channel, I guess. And like, just like we're going
to be happy with 2030% a year, OK, so be it.
But still a 20 to 30% year over year growth in Bitcoin terms is
effing gnarly. It's crazy.
It's crazy, right? So Opti, I want to take your, I
want to get your take on that, bro, because like, it's not
buying Bitcoin like I, I, I would say that's a wrong.
You're, you're, you're phrasing it wrong.
You're saying it wrong if you say it that way, because if you
say it that way, it almost as if it sounds like, OK, I'm
investing it. No, you're not it.
It's like I'm thinking about it and like, look, if I have
disposable income, if I have savings that I know I'm not
going to spend, am I going to just leave it in my bank
account? Why would I do that?
That's stupid. No, I'm going to buy Bitcoin
with it, but it that like let me, I'm going to exchange my
dollars for Bitcoin because dollars are inferior to Bitcoin.
That's how I would say it exactly.
Someone said in the chat exchange slash buy.
I wouldn't call it buy, you're not buying.
I would say exchange. Nico, this is exchange overbuy.
Yeah, exactly. So I would say the word is
exchange Bitcoin at 100 million in 50 years with 17% a year.
Nico in the chat. Dude, we're going to get bored
to. Death for a. 100 me and opti
you're going to be like 80 bro in like 50 years.
Bearish. Super bearish.
Anyways, Opti, what do you think about what Jeff Booth the.
Jeff was. Dropping the fire.
I love this because I, this is, I think the like final frontier
of your Bitcoin journey is you're, you first get into
Bitcoin and you, you know, it's just, you have to use kind of
examples of things that you're familiar with to kind of wrap
your head around what is going on here.
And of course, all these examples really fall short.
But once you get to that point, like I always joke with friends
and they don't even know what I'm saying.
I'm like, yeah, if I have dollars, I just like capitulate
my dollars as fast as I can for Bitcoin.
It's like I I sell my dollars for.
Bitcoin and they're like. What are you even talking about?
Like you need to, you need to, you know, stop smoking that.
I'm like, you speak in English to me.
But I think this is the final frontier.
And we get trolled in here all the time because we we say.
We, we always say like you know, you said.
You measure your wealth in Bitcoin and then we literally
bring up the Bitcoin price on the show every single day and
it's like, guys, what? What else do we measure?
Our wealth with like this, we're Americans.
This is how you measure your wealth.
You know, for the time being, this is this is what what we
we're dealing with. Yes, it's imperfect, an
imperfect metric here, but that's what everyone kind of
understands as what your wealth is, is basically pricing it in
dollars. Now, when you get to that final
frontier of like I always joke, we're playing Pac-Man, we're
playing Hungry Hippo here, it's not about dollars.
It's it's about trying to acquire as much Bitcoin as
possible. And yes, of course, you know,
we're still human, we're still flawed, and we.
Do like to? You know, basically measure
ourselves up to, compared to where we were.
And we used dollars to do that. Like that's what we used to
survive. And I, you know, I can, I can
throw down economic concepts, but that usually makes people's
eyes kind of glaze over. But it's really just Gresham's
law playing out in real time. It's like, I don't want this bad
money, I want better money. And so therefore, if if I'm
holding on to bad money, what do I want to do?
I want to get that bad money into good money as quickly as
possible. That's what we're doing here.
And so I've been saying for a long time that, yeah, you know,
when I'm talking to people, I might use just kind of, you
know, like normal nomenclature here, like I might just use
terms that people are used to. But when I think of this is like
I am exchanging my dollars for Bitcoin the same way someone
might exchange their pesos for a dollar.
Like to me, this is this is this is how I think of it.
Because once you kind of get to the point of this isn't just an
investment, this isn't this isn't just something, you know,
I want to sell for more dollars. Yes, I price some in dollars
right now, but I use Bitcoin as money.
I view it as the best money. And once you get to that point
that Bitcoin is the best money, you you're, you're basically
Jeff Booth. Here is like why?
Why would you? Why?
Why am I? Why would I trade this thing?
This is the best thing to be holding on to.
There's nothing else to be holding on to.
It's literally like you got to go back to being like a 10 year
old kid. It's like, remember when you
used to, you know, store gold coins or pennies and you know,
copper Indian Head coins under your, under your, your bed or in
your Piggy Bank because you thought these were more
expensive or have more value than the other ones or you even
had a Piggy Bank. You're just trying to store your
whatever money's coming in because it's better than
whatever bubble gum or whatever, you know, you did as a kid.
And that's like the game being played.
It's like you want to hold on to this Bitcoin thing, you don't
want to trade it. I think what we're seeing right
now is the the dying last breath of people being able to actually
trade this thing before it goes absolutely nuclear.
And so if you are like me and I loved Jeff boost saying that
because it reminded me of my early days in Bitcoin, you know,
I, I did all of the, you know, I lived all of the memes.
I literally I got in Bitcoin. You could literally throw a dart
at any shit coin and it was going to go up in 2017.
And then the market gets pulled out from under you.
And the one saving grace I had was.
Hey, I should probably. Learn about this Bitcoin thing
and then once you understand this Bitcoin thing, there's like
a there's like a maybe a time, a delay here where you're like,
maybe I can trade this Bitcoin thing and I can get more
bitcoins. And then the bull run happens
and you're like, you get caught up in the euphoria and you're
just you're just an idiot. Or rather you are self aware
enough to be like, I can't out trade these algorithms here.
So what am I going to do? I'm just going to keep buying it
no matter what, Like I'm just going to buy it.
I'm going to hold it, I'm going to store it.
And soon enough you're going to be like, yeah, it was a way
better decision than trying to top the, you know, time to top
or looking at, at freaking chart.
It's hard day and you have like 4 computers so you can out trade
the algorithms. I'm like, no, I don't want to do
that. Like I don't, I don't want to
sit on the computer longer than I have to.
I just want to Bitcoin and chill.
I just want to, you know, live my life, store, store my value,
my excess profits in Bitcoin, go enjoy my life.
And as long as I'm not selling all the coins that are under my
control, your life is better. It's like you don't need to
trade this thing. You're literally you're just
saving in the best money ever. It's just like you're storing
the best money. It's not that difficult.
I really don't get why it's that difficult.
We, it's like someone said in chats, like, are we speaking
English? How does this not make sense to
anyone? And I think it's really all the
FUD that that's been, you know, thrown at Bitcoin that a lot of
people still think the best money, the real money is this
paper money that is, you know, thrust on us by government.
It's like, no, we have a better money.
It's just taking a long time for people to wake up to the fact
that we have a better money. Absolutely.
I absolutely agree with you guys.
It's going to be a fantastic show.
We have some interesting news that you guys are probably going
to want to hear about. So what happens to these
treasury companies when their stocks go down, but they want to
continue to raise more Bitcoin? Well, it seems like Bloomberg
asked that article today about specifically about Metaplanet.
Metaplanet just recently announced that they have the
intention of buying 1000 more Bitcoin.
That would put them at 20,000 Bitcoin, making them the 6th
largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world, but their stock
has dropped dramatically. So how are they doing this?
We're going to have an update for you guys during the new
segment. We're going to be right back in
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So let's talk about this. The headline for the audio
listeners is Bitcoin proxies. Chief seeks funding fix as
flywheel falters. What does that mean?
So the article goes into a bunch of details, but here's kind of
like the key analysis of this and why what's going on?
But essentially it's it's pretty simple and I'll walk you guys
through it. Metaplanet is essentially trying
to copy Michael Saylor's playbook in Japan, turn a
regular company into a Bitcoin accumulation vehicle.
Under their CEO. They've already piled up 19,000
Bitcoin, and they're planning to buy 20,000 Bitcoin, but the
strategy depends on keeping their stock price high relative
to their Bitcoin holdings, the so-called Bitcoin Premium.
That premium allows them to issue equity at favorable terms,
recycle the proceeds into Bitcoin, and repeat, AKA the
flywheel. The problem is their stock has
dropped over 50% since June, while Bitcoin itself has written
risen. That collapse in premium has
weakened the financial loop with EVO Fund because warrants aren't
as attractive to exercise when the stock is falling.
Without fresh equity capital, their ability to keep buying
Bitcoin stalls. That's why their CEO is racing
to pivot to preferred shares, a more defense funding mechanism
that can raise billions without diluting common shareholders as
heavily. They're trying to secure
authorization for up to 555 billion or 3.8 billion in
prefers, which by the way, breaking news, they got that
approval that just broke. I saw it on the simply Bitcoin X
account, which you should definitely follow one of the
best Bitcoin news AGS in the business, which could give them
the ammo to quadruple their Bitcoin stash by the end of the
year. The importance here is twofold
First, it shows the global spread of the quote Bitcoin
treasury model public companies transforming into vehicles to
front run central banks and institutions in hoarding BTC.
There are now over 100, 170 entities with $111 billion worth
of Bitcoin, and Metaplanet is in the top ten.
Second, it reveals the fragility of these strategies.
They depend on investor faith in the stocks, Bitcoin premium, If
that erodes, the flywheel seizes up for bitcoiners.
It's significant because Metaplanet is trying to push the
model into Japan, a traditionally conservative
financial market, and they're bringing in Trump World figures
like Eric Trump to align it with the broader pro Bitcoin policy
shift under the new administration.
In short, Meta Planet story underscores both the momentum
and the risks of Bitcoin corporate adoption if they
succeed in raising billions through preferred shares again,
this has been officially approved.
It could cement Japan as a major front in the Bitcoin
accumulation race. If they fail, it highlights that
another that only companies with strong equity momentum like
sailor strategy can truly sustain the game at scale.
Now, what I will say is this, and I've been saying this for a
couple months now, do I think Metaplanet Nakamoto 21 or
strategy or any of the big players are in trouble And we
were, we asked this question. In fact, I think it's still live
in the chat. We asked you guys, almost 700
people have voted in this poll. We said is winter coming?
Meaning are there going to be any more bear markets?
72% Opti the the vast majority, that's not a good sign.
The vast majority of people have said that there will be no bear
markets anymore, right? Bear market confirmed.
Yeah, I know, right. So 72% have, have basically.
So almost 700 people have voted that there will be no bear
markets anymore. But here's the thing.
Like I, I, I, I vividly remember this, I don't know if you guys
were around for this, but strategy Sailor first announced
the Bitcoin strategy in the last bull market heading into 2021.
And then he had to endure the bear market of 2022.
And boy, that was brutal. Like Sailor was down billions of
dollars in his investment now because he huddled and he was
actually able to buy more than his stock recovered.
And the guy looked like a genius, like we all look like a
genius when we do that. By the way, it's called paying
your price of tuition. It's something extremely
familiar here in Bitcoin circles.
So yes, I mean, to kind of summarize the point, Opti, what
happens, bro? What happens when we do get a
downturn? Because thinking that we're not
going to get a downturn is ridiculous.
Now, are we going to get 80% downturns?
Maybe. You never know in Bitcoin,
right? But maybe those days are over.
Remember you say, Nico, those days are over.
Now that Black Rock's here, institutions are here,
governments are buying Bitcoin, The days of 80% drawdowns are
long gone. They don't exist anymore.
OK, but what if they come back? How are those companies going to
raise money to buy Bitcoin? And I think that's the question,
because I remember Sailor changed some of the parameters
regarding his stock because of the downturn, because of the
like again, if you take a look at some of these treasury
companies, they're not completely correlated with the
price of Bitcoin. So and then this goes back to
something that I was saying during the news, during the
numbers segment. If you denominate your wealth in
Bitcoin, other investments don't make sense, right?
Like, why would I buy Apple stock if I can buy Bitcoin?
And Bitcoin's going to outperform Apple stock?
Oh, and not only that, I could take self custody of that
Bitcoin, why would I buy Apple stock?
Makes no sense, right? So again, the only reason.
As to why you're? Buying one of these treasury
companies is because you believe it's going to outperform
Bitcoin. If it doesn't outperform
Bitcoin, there is no reason as to why you should buy a treasury
company. They're like, you're literally
setting money, you're setting Bitcoin on fire.
So the only reason you should be buying a treasury company is
because you think it's going to outperform Bitcoin.
That's the only reason, right? So but what happens when they
start underperforming Bitcoin? What happens to their ability to
raise more money to buy Bitcoin? Because that's the value
proposition. The value proposition is that a
lot of these treasury companies have access to the capital
markets, and they're able to access cheap debt in order to
buy more Bitcoin and increase the amount of Bitcoin per share.
But what happens, to use the Bloomberg article's own words,
when that flywheel starts to slow down?
It's going to affect the smaller Bitcoin treasury companies 1st,
and then it's going to affect the larger ones.
Now, again, I think Sailor has positioned himself at such it it
at such a powerful and like position that I don't think I
think MicroStrategy is going to be the biggest bank in the world
in the next decade. Like, I think it's, I think
Sailor like reasonably has a shot of being one of the
wealthiest people in the world in the next 10 to 20 years
because again, he positioned himself so well with such a big
head start. But what about #10 on that list?
What about #15 on that list, right?
Like, why would you buy #15 if you can buy #1 and you know,
number one's already going to win.
Well, you're going to buy 15 because you think that 15 is out
is going to outperform #1 because it's market cap is that
much smaller and it has that much more room to grow.
But what if #15 isn't able to raise money anymore because it's
stock isn't going up? And now all of a sudden, the
amount, the, the actual value, the the market cap of that
company of that share is actually lower than the amount
of Bitcoin that they hold. So then why didn't you just buy
Bitcoin instead? You would have outperformed that
company and you could have still had self custody, right?
Doesn't make sense, does it? Anyways, I'm done.
That's my tangent. Opti, I want to get your take on
this because we've had to become these like treasury company semi
experts very quick. I know you're the macro expert
in the house Opti very quick. I'm not a Bitcoin treasury, I'm
not a Bitcoin treasury expert, though I still maybe maybe it's
like what you said, maybe it's just like the ideological divide
here that made me not fully understand what these treasury
companies are. But but Nico seen me.
I've been listening to, you know, sailors shareholder
meetings, trying to understand what these new products are
doing. And the one big take away, at
least from sailors perspective, is a lot of these products are
kind of tapped and created for certain capital specific
markets. And so he's tapping into these
markets that otherwise wouldn't be able to get into Bitcoin.
But that's kind of a totally different conversation than just
the idea of the Bitcoin treasury companies.
And so like what Nico is saying, just kind of breaking it down in
in simple terms is like by definition, what these treasury
companies are doing is as investor, you know, capital
allocators is they are taking on more risk to achieve a higher
return. That's by definition, that's
what investing is. And so that's why they get
these, you know, maybe outsize returns here is because, and
maybe Sailor could be argued that is, is a little different
because I'm sure from his perspective, it's not so much a
risk per SE. He's just like, look, I'm
creating these products and I'm tapping into these markets so
that very few products or Bitcoin products can actually
get into. And he's done the due diligence
for all of this. But by definition, as an
investor, you do take risk. And a lot of these Bitcoin
treasury companies, like Nico's been saying for weeks now, maybe
not 1-2 or three, maybe not the top 3 here, which would be what
Sailor Metaplanet or strategy metaplanet and maybe like
Nakamoto or 21 capital, like those top four probably are the
ones that will be able to withstand any storm here.
But by definition, as you go farther down the list, they
these companies are going to have to take more and more
risks. And personally, as someone that
doesn't have, you know, money wrapped up in, in the
traditional capital markets of, well, you know, had no money
when I started this, still have no money considering we're
brokies. I, I don't, I don't think the
risk is justified here. And yes, the gains and the
returns are an incentive and, and, you know, you have to kind
of fight your own personal greed here, but you never know.
Some of these could, you know, blow up.
And personally, I think it's just a lot safer.
It's like what we were saying in the beginning of the show, like
to me, this is the best money in the world.
I want to hold on to the best money in the world for as long
as humanly possible, personally hold on to this money.
So I'm not going to give, you know, an investor this money
when Bitcoin is being adopted and Bitcoin is in the process of
being monetized. Maybe when, you know, we're 80
years old, like they're saying in the chat, you know, when
we're 80 years old and bitcoins, whatever, hundreds of millions
of dollars per coin, then maybe that's when we'll and we don't
get these crazy returns because there's been a lot of adopters
of Bitcoin and it's like, you know.
As ubiquitous as. The Internet is and everyone's
using it, and we're no longer simply Bitcoin because no one
really cares about Bitcoin like they used to.
And it's like saying simply Internet.
Maybe that's the time in our lifetime when we're like, yeah,
you know, we're going to allocate our capital for returns
in various different investments that we think are going to
either improve the world or, you know, give me an outsize return.
But in the moment, personally, the risk that I see in all this
stuff and hey, look, shouts out to all my friends out there that
that did understand this and got filthy rich off of this.
I just know myself well enough. I'm like look, I don't
understand what this I'm. Literally the like.
If you don't understand it, don't invest money in it.
I'm like, I didn't, I didn't understand what they were doing
for a while and now I I. Literally feel like.
A normie when it comes to the Bitcoin treasury companies in
the sense is like I missed the boat and everyone's like dude,
strategy is going to I don't even know what the numbers are
$10,000 per share or something like that, you know like
something crazy. And and I look at some of my
friends when they say that the same way my normie friends look
at me when I talk about Bitcoin. I'm like, Nah, dude, I missed
the boat like I'm going to just sit in my Bitcoin yeah, you're
going to get stupid rich but I just I don't know I don't know
what's going on with these things I I'm not going to take
that risk here like the last thing you want to be doing right
now as Bitcoin becomes monetized is taking excess risk to your
holdings. That's like, the worst thing you
can be doing. Yeah, maybe if you want to, you
know, shave off a little bit and you, you know, mess around in
the casinos or take a little bit and be like, yeah, OK, hey, you
know, this little bit of my stack isn't going to really
affect my life either way. If I can get a good return on
it, so be it. But I mean, we were talking this
morning, Nico, and I'm not going to dox our boy here, but he was
trolling about like, dude, should I sell my whole stack for
some metaplanet right now? We're like, no dude, do not.
Do that at all that that is the. Dumbest thing you can be doing
right now and it all goes back to the same idea.
Like if we are in this S curve adoption.
If we are on, you know, the tip of a tsunami, A monumental wave
coming into Bitcoin, the last thing you should be doing is
adding more risk into your portfolio.
Bitcoin, as as the average person looks at, is already
risky enough. If you don't understand what
these Bitcoin treasury companies are doing, if you can't read the
prospectus and understand exactly what they're doing, you
probably shouldn't be giving them your money.
Yes, I have friends that, you know, do the like MSTYMSTU plays
and like man, it's passive income, bro.
I don't have to ever sell my I'm like, man, that sounds really
nice. I just don't understand what the
hell it's doing. So I'm not going to throw my
coins at it. You know, I'm not going to throw
my, my, what's it, 10 million stats, my generational wealth.
At it, because I don't get what they're doing here.
But for better or worse, we will see probably a Bitcoin treasury
company, whether it's the big ones or not, blow up.
I think it's a totally different conversation, but I think it's
going to happen now. I don't think it's gonna be
sailor. I think sailor is probably, you
know, the smartest one doing it. Or do I think it's metaplan it
like these are for different markets as as one of my favorite
theories is here is, you know, the reason Satoshi Nakamoto
picked the the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto is because he was
saying like, look at the Japanese markets right now.
America will become Japan if they don't get their shit
together. And look what's going on in
Japan right now. They're they're not in a good
place. And so if you think we are on
the precipice, uh oh, am I falling off?
No, you're here. No, it said my.
I said I lost my connection. If you think we are on the
precipice of of something huge and monumental of a phase shift
in money right now, then taking, you know, risk on that right now
just the returns do not they the ROI on this just doesn't make
sense to me. Like it the, you know, yeah,
maybe you could double, triple, quadruple 10 times your stack if
you knew sailors strategy was going to work.
But there was also the chance back then that you could lose
your whole stack. And right now is not the time to
to be taking these risks. I think it's just like, hey,
Bitcoin and chill. Bitcoin and chill.
I absolutely love that. I think it's very fitting to
enter the culture segment with that guys.
We're going to be right back. Opti's got something loaded up
for you guys and then of course, we're going to give it.
We're going to be giving away some sats through Bitcoin well,
so you guys are going to want to stay tuned.
Smash that like button. If you guys are enjoying the
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All right, everybody, we are back.
If you guys are enjoying the show so far, make sure to smash
that like button. We're currently at 291 likes.
Help us break 350 likes By the end of the show, smash that like
button opt. He's going to dive into the
culture. And again, you guys are going to
want to stay tuned to the end of the show because we're going to
be giving away some Sats. All right, well, guys, First
off, for the culture, I did lint my I did lint roll my hat, but
apparently Nico's house is linty here still.
So yeah, anyways, shout out to Ron.
I am linty, dude. I'm I'm salty and linty right
now. Thank you, Ron P Super Chat
$10.00 for the Chipotle Mayo fund.
OK, guys, first of all. I feel like a.
Lot of my cultures have been a little doomy and I and I hate
being the Fiat dumer guy here, but a lot of the charts and
metrics that I'm seeing right now, they should be worrisome.
All right, That's that's just going to be my.
Context here like this. Stuff is the stuff I'm seeing on
Twitter. I don't know who you guys follow
on Twitter. Maybe I've curated my my my
Twitter account because it like the data I'm getting and from
the people that I'm seeing. I'm like some of this stuff is
absolutely terrifying If you you are still holding dollars.
OK, that's that's kind of like the PSA here now this first one
is the craziest 1 I think like Nico, wait, do that again.
So. That was crazy.
OK. This first one is Kobayashi
letter great follow you know you you could argue that they they
they do have a certain bent here they they are a little more
doomerish, but again, if you're watching the traditional news if
you're if. You're watching the traditional
Wait, did you lose me? Oh, no, sorry.
Someone says we lost off to the no dude, I'm bullish.
I am bullish as fuck when it comes to Bitcoin.
But the data I'm seeing coming out from the the trad FI system
is is where is where this is leading.
Remember the Bellagi tweet that I that his thread that I covered
the other day. It was kind of connecting where
we are right now to the very end of the Soviet Union.
And essentially the short of it is as things progressed and
before the wall came down, all of the economic data was being
faked and they were trying to put out really good numbers.
And we're seeing this narrative play out right now as a
Bitcoiner, we all know, like most of the economic data that
we're seeing is most likely, you know, massage, to put it nicely.
And when it comes to the independent journalists, if you
want to call them that, you know, the independent analysts
out there, the numbers aren't painting a good scene.
OK. And I've covered a bunch of
different examples, but this one really kind of struck me.
So Kobayashi letter on Twitter and he goes, this is insane.
The NASDAQ market cap relative to the USM 2 money supply has
hit a record 176%. This means the market value of
the NASDAQ is nearly twice as large as the total stock of
liquid money in the economy. The ratio has now exceeded
the2000.com bubble peaked by roughly 45 percentage points.
Never in the history of financial markets has the rise
in stock prices exceeded the growth of the money supply by
this much. At the same time, the NASDAQ
market cap relative to USGDP has risen to a record 129%, almost
doublethe.com peak. How much further can it go and
remember the, the, the market cap of of NASDAQ versus the
USGDP, like we, we probably haven't seen this scenario ever.
We probably seen it maybe once or twice in the history of the
US. And this is where you kind of
start to think in a big picture, this isn't just the US, yes, we
are US centric because we live in the United States.
So a lot of our data comes from the US.
And I'm sure if you look around in whatever country you're in,
I'm sure it's worse than this. The the US economy is still the
Chinese turd in the race, OK. Like it it all is kind of
downstream from us. And look, we are in a scenario
right now that might be worsethanthe.com bubble.
Now, I know a lot of people are probably saying, oh, bitcoins
thereal.com bubble. And we would look at it the
opposite, like no Fiat currency is the real bubble and Bitcoins
depend on that. And so as we're seeing this push
from the Trump administration for stablecoins, it's hard to
see how Bitcoin doesn't RIP through this process.
I don't know if you guys have watched the gold price, but gold
is also hitting all time highs, guys.
And you know, sorry, you know, what this usually means from a
hard money aspect is when people are fleeing Treasuries and cash
and they're diving into gold, a hedge against, you know, Fiat
collapse, a hedge and against inflation, the basement,
etcetera. This is usually signs that there
is not only fear in the market, fear in the investor, but
probably a problem, a fundamental problem, a plumbing
problem. And we're seeing gold has never
been this high ever, literally ever.
So what does that usually mean? As we always say here in in
Bitcoin, it's not just that Bitcoin is going up in price is
that your dollar is losing its value.
Now we're seeing this exact thing play out in gold, and
usually gold runs before Bitcoin.
So if there's someone out there, rather, if there's a collective
consciousness out there of people seeing this data and
being like, wait, there is a problem going on, I should
probably sell my stocks, I should probably not buy
Treasuries, and I should just go into the Armageddon and
Armageddon investment, which is buying gold.
I'm not saying we're going into a Mad Max scenario this year,
tomorrow, 5-10 years from now. All I'm saying is exactly what
Kobayashi letter said here at the end.
How much further can it go now? I think they can kick the can
down the road farther than and longer than any of us could even
imagine. It's not a good thing for people
on mainstream. It's not a good thing for your
friends and family if they're just holding stocks thinking
like, oh, the S&P 500's going to outperform inflation, I'll be
good. Or, you know, I, I'm going to
put all of my money in the 401 KS because my employer's going
to match it. It's like, bro, none of this
would matter. It or none of this is going to
matter if the data comes out proving exactly where we are,
which if you've been following, I'm pretty sure we've been in a
recession for officially, unofficially in a recession for
probably a year or two now. It's seeming like if they don't
get this under control, hence why we think rate cuts are
probably coming. And if they, if the rate cuts
don't do anything, it could expose this whole sham that we
aren't just in a recession, we are probably in a depression
right now. And if you talk to anyone out
there, just like a normie, they're probably feeling more of
a depression type scenario than they are a recession.
People are working multiple jobs.
They can't buy groceries. Rent's super expensive for most
people, hard to pay their bills. People are struggling right now.
And this is all the stuff that continues to kind of paint the
picture. This is why I think I've gotten
into the macro kind of landscape here is because, look, Bitcoin
is entering those market. It's like Bitcoin is entering
the mainstream here. And if there is something that
you can learn from macro markets or macro analysts is that a lot
of the indicators, the independent analysts out there
are kind of showing that the geopolitical macroeconomic
landscape is not in a good position.
And and the only way they can keep doing this is what Lynn
Alden keeps saying. They just they have to continue
to print the big print, as Larry Leopard said, they can't stop
this train as Lynn Alden's been kind of talking about.
And so that's like the big doomer stuff on the flip.
Side here there is a flip side. Is Bitcoin accumulation is
rising as holders stack above 100K.
So we are starting to see, you know, as people could like to
call the mother of all supply shocks building up the Bitcoin
treasury companies, the, you know, the whales out there, you
guys out there, we are starting to see that people are
accumulating Bitcoin now are those holders coming from gold
or those holders coming from dropping treasuries?
Are those holders from more traditional assets?
Yes, but also I don't think in size yet so this is like the
Paul Revere moment here that we should all be on it's we need to
continue to get as many people as we can, however, we can not
you know just like shilling them like incredible price gains
here. You just got to be like hey man,
you should probably just buy a little bit.
You know, just just dip your toes in this Bitcoin thing,
however however it makes sense to your friends and family, but
we as bitcoiners, we as you know simply Bitcoin here and Ruston
Dante Sophie Ocean's like we are we are I I think symbolically
like the Paul Revere's out here on YouTube just being like guys,
you need to be holding Bitcoin. You have to this isn't this
isn't an option anymore. This is a necessity, like you
need to hold Bitcoin because who knows how long this can go, Who
knows what's going to happen. But what we do know is they're
going to debase the currency, they're going to debase your
holdings, and you need to hold something that they cannot
destroy, which is, of course, Bitcoin.
And I just want more people to hold.
It I I like. Man, I'm an acceleration list in
the opposite view, Nico, I don't want everything to burn.
I want everyone to hold Bitcoin and we just get past the chasm
here. I love that.
No, I mean, yeah, dude, it
things are on an unsustainable trajectory.
I think this is been the case since 1971, really started since
the executive Order 61-O2. And you know, it's been a, it's
been decades and decades and decades of basically stealing
from the future to enrich the present.
And I think our generation is finally when, when those
decisions finally caught up with themselves.
I think 2008, 2009, when you know, me and Opti were coming of
age, essentially we, the millennial generation's the
first generation where we, we are, we are feeling the effects
of the 2008, 2009 financial crisis, the zoomer generation
even worse, the alpha generation even worse.
You're not going to own anything, right?
The medium age for a home buyer in the United States is 40 years
old, the highest it's ever been since the data was starting to
get a, since the data was starting to get accumulated.
I mean, it was 2002 and the medium age for a home buyer was
like 30 years old. It's gone up 10 years, right?
And then not only that, you talk about America in the 1950s and
1960s and you talked about a middle class family being able
to support itself off of 1 income and off of a regular job
and they were able to afford a home, meaning they're able to
live with dignity, right? That has been stripped away.
The American dream has been eviscerated by the central
banking system by Fiat. And Bitcoin restores that hope.
And not only does it restore that hope and exports that hope
globally, now everybody could live the American dream if they
start saving and earning in Bitcoin, right?
So this is what it's all about. We all see the numbers.
I think with the propagation and popularity of stable coins, I
think the dollar is going to continue for the foreseeable
future. So this this dream that
Bitcoiners have that Bitcoin is going to replace the dollar.
Yeah, sure. Maybe 30-40 years from now.
I don't think it's going to. Happen anytime they're replacing
the dollar, Nico. It's the same thing.
It's just digital.
It's just digital dollars. It's the same thing essentially.
I, I, I, I'm honestly looking forward to a world where you're
able to use dollars as seamlessly as stablecoins.
Like part of the reason I think stablecoins are so effing
popular is because the banking says it.
Like, look, I'll be honest with you guys.
Like I I live in the US, my bank treats me extremely well.
Like I have very good experiences with my.
Bank fake bitcoiner. But that's only but that's only
because, right, I've been with my bank for many years.
I have a small business. I've, you know, like again, I'm
a great customer, so they have every incentive to treat me
right. But like, you know, the reality
is that most people, you know, like, if you're not going to
have that same banking experience, like in most some,
even if if you live in a specific country, you can't even
open a bank account. Not only that, not only can you
not open a bank account, the bank, the bank itself might rug
you right? Like that's crazy.
Like, why would you want to do that?
So like, this is what stable coins are for.
Like This is why you're, This is why stable coins are so popular
in the global S is because not everyone has the ability to open
a bank account or has the means to open a bank account or more
importantly, trust in the local banking system itself.
They've lost faith in it. So they, they, they look at,
they look at my personal favorite Tether and they're
like, oh, this is fantastic. I can have access to dollars.
I can use dollars globally. Now this is incredible.
But it's a Trojan horse. It's a Trojan horse for Bitcoin
because it gives them exposure to a digital wallet.
And then eventually, if enough people in that country start
adopting the stable coin, a stable coin doesn't fix
inflation. It does not fix inflation.
I get it. If you're going from a Bolivar
with like double digit inflation and you're transitioning to the
dollar, the dollar is going to be a a significantly better
experience for you. But eventually, if you compare
and contrast dollars and Bitcoin, Bitcoin is going to be
a significantly better experience for you.
But again, it doesn't. Bitcoin doesn't have that, that
marketing aspect of it doesn't have that educational component.
The dollar's been around for a long time.
It has very strong branding, the US economy, the US militarily,
the US in general. It seemed like the shining city
on the hill. That's what it seemed, it seemed
like for, you know, across the world.
So of course people want access to dollars, right?
And before stable coins, you couldn't get access to dollars,
maybe physical dollars, but you couldn't get access to digital
dollars. You need a bank account for
that. So, yeah, man, I think, you
know, to, to, to go back to what you're saying Opti, to weave all
this back in like, like I, I'm, I don't have faith in the long
term viability of this system to borrow Lynn Alden's quote,
right. Nothing stops this train.
Larry Laparde just wrote a, a book called The Big Print.
What do you think is going to happen to your savings and
earnings in dollar terms, in purchasing power terms, when
that inevitable big print happens?
It's going to lose purchasing power.
It's going to be debased and you know the things that are going
to benefit when they inevitably start printing money because
they have to hard assets and the best hard asset of them all is
Bitcoin, right? So anyways, I hope that ties it
in. We've had an incredible show
today, 800 live viewers on YouTube alone.
Rumble coming in strong, X always coming in strong as well.
I think we are we're on the verge of breaking 3000 live
viewers on X. If you guys enjoyed today's
content, make sure to like that smash that like button consider
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