Bitcoin has exploded to $73,000 and I think we're all just
wondering why we saw Donald Trump attack the banks over the
Clarity Act while in the beginning of a war in Iran.
A Bitcoin exchange just gave me an account with the Fed, but
it's not the one everyone thought it was going to be.
And Morgan Stanley partners with BNY Mellon to launch a Bitcoin
ETF. There's a lot of headwinds, or
rather sorry, a lot of tailwinds to discuss today.
But first, let's watch Jamie Dimon's recent clip in regards
to the war happening with the Clarity Act to really set the
context of what we're talking about today.
You and your peers have reportedly clashed with
Coinbase's Brian Armstrong over the Clarity Act and specifically
this idea of crypto exchanges offering rewards for stable
coins. And Armstrong was on CNBC with
Sara Eisen a few weeks ago from Mar a Lago, and he said there's
a path forward for the market structure.
Bill, That's a quote, win, win outcome for everyone.
How are you feeling about it right now?
The banks feel strongly that there should be rewards of the
same as interest and that you know, a compromise would be that
you could pay rewards on transactions, not balances.
If you are going to be holding balances and paying interest,
that's the bank. You should be regulated by a
bank. So we've been firm one thing
over here, yes, but if you want to be a bank, become a bank,
then you can do whatever you want under bank law.
So I remind people, your viewers may not know banks have
restrictions and requires FDIC insurance, AML, BSA.
We have Community Responsibility Act, which means we have to open
25% of our brands, LMI neighbors with social requirements.
We have liquidity requirements, capital requirements,
transparency requirements, report requirements,
requirements, government requirements.
If they want to be a bank, so be it.
So what we based is level playing field by product.
It can't be you have these people doing one thing, you
know, without any regulation like that, and these people do
another. And if you do do that, the
public will pay it will it will get bad.
So I just people should take a deep breath and what did you
want to? And we want competition.
You know, we're actually one of the biggest users of blockchain
and you know, and you know, we created AJP Morgan deposit coin.
We've moved money, real time payments.
You know, we're moving a lot of data now using blockchain.
So we're in favor of competition, but it's got to be
fair and balanced level playing field.
It's not. It can't be completely skewed.
Yeah, The Gas Lobby by Jamie Dimon's kind of crazy.
I saw a lot of people talking about this on Twitter and, and
I'm going to get into all the different news.
But as we've been covering for the last couple of weeks, really
there is this war happening right now with the Clarity Act.
And we see on one side, it's the banks.
That's why we have Jamie Dimon. It's kind of the figurehead.
And now he's on CNBC talking about this war, though he is
saying, hey, we love competition.
And then he follows that up with we need a level playing field.
They're they're literally they got the regulatory Moat here.
They got, you know, $4 trillion bank saying, hey, Lee, look,
these, these crypto companies are not on a level playing
field. We got to make sure it's a level
competition. And you're just like, wow, the,
the insane gaslighting here by Jamie Dimon to really paint this
as, Hey, the banks are here to protect you, the city, the
citizen. And, and let's not, let's not
like gloss over the fact that he, he broke the 5th wall here.
He's like, let, let's talk to the, the viewers back home
watching this. I'm here to protect you.
There is a war right now and it is the banks and it's, it's
becoming very clear. It was speculation for a little
bit, but the more news coming out of the White House, it is
the banks that are actively fighting the Clarity Act right
now. And it is over the stable coin
yield. Now we can argue over the
specifics of whether the Clarity Act is actually going to be
beneficial for Bitcoin that I think that's still yet to be
resolved, but at least that's the framing.
And actually to start off, I was going to start off somewhere
else because there is some very big news coming out of a Bitcoin
exchange or you could say crypto exchange to the point that Jamie
Dimon said. But I'm going to start here with
literally last night, Donald Trump tweeted about the Clarity
Act or Truth Social post, whatever you call it, about the
Clarity Act. And and there was rumors that
were confirmed later that this tweet happened right after he
had a closed door meeting with Brian Armstrong, CEO, Coinbase.
I thought it very interesting that Trump is even true tweeting
about the Clarity Act right now, considering, you know, what's
happening in the Middle East. Like, I personally, I think
there might be a bigger issues right now than the clarity act
passing, but that didn't stop Donald Trump from posting
something and and it was very favorable for the Clarity act.
So we might be seeing a war happen right now from the banks
versus the crypto industry. And it does seem like Trump has
thrown his hat into the ring. And here we go.
Here's the tweet. This was last night.
I can't confirm this is a real tweet.
This is not a fake news tweet. Here's Donald Trump, he goes,
the genius act is being threatened, undermined by the
banks and that is unacceptable. Again, the kind of crypto White
House press secretaries or you know, the crypto White House
journalists have been saying this, that the reason the
Clarity Act has been stalling is because of the banks.
Now we have Donald Trump, of course, the president of the
United States saying the exact same thing and goes further,
goes we are not going to allow it. the US needs to get market
structure done ASAP. Americans should earn more money
on their money. It's kind of an interesting take
here. I'm not going to lie.
The banks are hitting record profits and we are not going to
allow them to undermine our powerful crypto agenda that will
end up going to China and other countries if we don't get the
Clarity Act taken care of. The Genius Act was EU s s first
big step to make the United States the crypto capital of the
world and getting the Clarity Act done is the next step to
finish the job and most importantly keep this big and
powerful industry in our country.
The bank should not be trying to undercut the Genius Act, hold
the Clarity Act hostage. They need to make a good deal
with the crypto industry because that's what's in the best
interest of the American people. This industry cannot be taken
from the people of America when it is so close to becoming truly
successful. Thank you for your attention to
this matter, President Donald J Trump.
So again, there has been a lot of speculation.
I mean, even for me, I've, I've been very skeptical from the
jump of how serious the Trump administration is taking this
quote, you know, crypto capital of the world or Bitcoin capital
of the world. And slowly but surely we, we are
getting headlines and, you know, snippets and voice captures and
just different headlines coming out of the White House that they
are in fact very serious about the quote crypto capital of the
world. Now, in the last few weeks, I
have become very skeptical that the Clarity Act will even pass
because we are getting a lot of opposition.
But further, as Brian Armstrong said, and I know it was, it was
a big surprise to me when I said I, I tend to agree with Brian
Armstrong. I'm not the biggest fan of
Coinbase, but I do agree with him on this idea that probably
no bill is better than a bad bill.
And from all the amendments that we're seeing added to the
Clarity Act, it started to look like this was becoming a
monstrosity. It's, it's really probably going
to do more damage than good. Well, now we have President
Donald Trump saying, hey, we, we got to get this pass and we got
to do it correctly too. Of course, as he said, make sure
that Americans can get more money from their money.
And two, that it is in the best interest of the American people
for this to pass, which is something I have been saying.
Look, with all of Donald Trump's faults, the Bitcoin idea in and
of itself is a very good idea. Yes, I know we are the separate
money from state show here, but from my perspective, Bitcoin is
as American as apple pie. America embracing Bitcoin,
embracing the 21st century of money, embracing digital money
and not from a CBDC completely corralled and controlled network
dynamic is a good thing. I think Americans should be
allowed to use Bitcoin to transact in Bitcoin and and we
will be able to outperform the dollar.
The dollar has, you know, constantly losing purchasing
power. And I don't know if you guys saw
it this morning. I actually didn't bring it up on
the show for you guys today because I I have a lot to cover
on on this news story, but it was in line on this.
Senator Lummis was on Squawk Box this morning talking about the
war in Iran, Of course, the Clarity Act.
But they did talk about the de minimis capital gains tax or de
minimis tax break on Bitcoin. Shout out to Joe Kernan on
Squawk Box. He's, he's the best Bitcoin
podcaster in the world currently.
And he brought it up, though from what we're hearing, it's
not really in a good place on the de minimis tax.
Senator Lummis reiterated the fact that it was, you know,
$600.00. It went down to 200.
Currently they're talking about a $300 de minimis exemption from
Bitcoin. So if you, you know, buy
something worth $300 or less than you shouldn't get taxed on
it. But Joe Kernan again, and the
best Bitcoin podcaster, he he was making fun of the idea.
It's like, look, if we are seeing capital gains tax on
Bitcoin, then maybe we should be getting tax exemption from the
dollar because it is literally designed to steal your
purchasing power. Love to see the narrative
spread. Anyways, remember what Jamie
Dimon just said. He said if crypto exchanges or
Bitcoin companies, Bitcoin exchanges want to basically act
like a bank and you know, provide yield on stable coins or
rewards as the Bitcoin crypto industry has been calling it,
then maybe they should become a bank.
Well, we did get some pretty historic news this morning in
line with that idea. So maybe Jamie Dimon is asking
for something that he really doesn't want.
Maybe he thought this was a dunk 'cause this did happen last
night. So he wasn't Privy to this news
this morning. Maybe he thought it was a dunk
by saying, hey, if if crypto exchanges want to do bank things
and they should become banks. Well, this morning we got some
pretty big news. So I'll start there.
This is the news coming out this morning, which is a first, a
world first here and and I know, you know, has to do with the
feds. So I know a lot of bitcoiners
are like, yeah, whatever, dude, What what's this?
What's this really mean? But the headline Kraken becomes
the first crypto company to secure a Fed master account
access. Excuse me, the approval let's
Kraken speed up deposits and withdrawals for large traders
and institutional clients, But of course it is limited.
So just breaking this down, Kraken again secured a Federal
Reserve's master account, giving its banking arm direct access to
the Feds core payment systems and allowing it to settle
payments itself. You heard that correctly.
Kraken now doesn't have to deal with the middle man's to settle
their money. They can settle directly with
the Fed. From one perspective, this is a
Bitcoin Trojan horse narrative happening right now.
From the other one, maybe you guys are thinking like, oh,
we're just bending the knee to the Federal Reserve.
But guys, this is how banking works at look, for better or
worse, if you're if you're doing banking things, you're most
likely dealing with the Fed here.
So this is a big news story. This is a big first for the
quote UN quote crypto industry. Obviously from the Bitcoin maxi
perspective, the Bitcoin only perspective you would have loved
to see, just like a Bitcoin only bank be the first one or Bitcoin
only exchange be the first one. But hey, you know, little wins,
little wins here. Going further, the approval
let's Kraken speed up deposits and withdrawals for large trades
and institutional clients. Of course, it's limited with
Kraken not earning interest on reserves or accessing the Feds
emergency lending. So I saw some people saying
like, oh, Bitcoin exchange getting bailed out by the Fed
very clearly they don't get feds emergency landing.
So they're still going to have to be very smart with their
balances. They they will have to be full
reserve. They don't get the luxury of
being fractional reserve here, but they can settle with the Fed
directly, which it's going to be very interesting to see how this
improves Kraken, how this fully supercharged charges the Bitcoin
industry and maybe very soon we see more crypto companies,
Bitcoin exchanges getting similar access.
Though again, we know how the banking system works.
This could be a regulatory Moat kind of scenario, giving Kraken
the advantage again. The move is part of Kraken's
efforts to expand the operations and move towards a potential IPO
initial public offering, following in the footsteps of
other crypto firms like Coinbase and Gemini.
Of course, Kraken is the first one Yesterday mentioned Coinbase
and Gemini, but that's because they're all trying to IPOIPO is
the big, you know, exit for all of the Ogs, the CEOs, the
C-Suite of these exchanges, It's their payday.
And you know, a lot of people are just kind of wondering like,
OK, what is this master account? Well, we, we broke it down
already. It gives it banking arm direct
access to the feds core payment systems, and of course, it's the
first one. So huge news coming out of more
of the crypto, you know, sector here.
But this does show that Bitcoin is slowly and surely taking over
the banking system. Yes, I know Trojan horse meme of
Bitcoin hasn't been going the best recently, but I think first
and foremost, Bitcoin has to get a foothold into trad 5.
That's just how it's going to work.
I know there's been a lot of ideas or a lot of takes that oh,
Bitcoin being a parallel economy, it will just do its own
thing and eventually people will pour into Bitcoin and completely
ignore the traditional financial system.
It's, it's a good theory, but in practice you need banking
services. And for better or worse, the
banks do not see Bitcoin like we see Bitcoin.
You still have to use banking services.
So I know there's a lot of talk about Bitcoin, parallel economy,
medium exchange, but for most of us all in on Bitcoin, yes, you
can do the heavy work of trying to live 100% on Bitcoin, but at
a certain point you're still going to have to interact with
the Fiat system. Kraken, they just kind of cut
out a middle man. They're going directly to the
Fed. It's a pretty big move.
This is actually a a pretty huge move here.
So we're seeing a war with the clarity Act banks versus the
crypto industry. Looks like Trump is siding with
the crypto industry here. We're seeing Kraken get a master
account at the Fed. A huge story, a huge first
historic moment right now in Bitcoin.
And then of course, the bigger news, well, maybe not bigger
news, but a big news in the same vein of just how excited I think
Wall Street is. Our institutions are for Bitcoin
and it brings its own problems. Of course, it brings its own
problems as we are currently living through.
But we see Morgan Stanley now tap Coinbase and BNY Mellon for
custody in a proposed Bitcoin ETF.
So more ETFs, though this one is a little different.
This is a Bitcoin trust. So BNY to act as administrator,
transfer agent and cash custodian for Morgan Stanley's
proposed Bitcoin trust. Kind of interesting what what
the Bitcoin trust might actually be.
But Morgan Stanley filed with the Seca perspective outlining
the structure of a proposed Morgan Stanley Bitcoin trust,
revealing that the fund plans to use Coinbase Custody and the
Bank of New York Mellons to safeguard its Bitcoin holdings,
according to the S1 submitted. So big banks coming into custody
Bitcoin, they're partnering with crypto companies here.
But again, as we've been covering for years, Nico keeps
reiterating the same idea about what Michael Saylor has been
saying is going to drive us into the seven figure numbers.
It is, of course, the FAZBE accounting rules, the ETFs and
the bank's custody Bitcoin. Well, we're starting to see more
of the bank's custody in Bitcoin.
Now, again, this does come with its own problems.
I would say personally, I'm not going to be trusting the Tradfi
brand names to be custodying my Bitcoin because I sell custody
my Bitcoin, as the meme always goes, you know, oh wait, I
didn't pull it out for you guys. Sorry.
As the meme goes, you know, you don't have to trust the banks
anymore because you can become your own banks.
And that of course, that also comes with its own set of attack
vectors here. But it is interesting how a lot
of people are waiting for the institution to get into Bitcoin
when in reality, you don't need permission to get into Bitcoin.
You just need to, you know, sell your Fiat to get some Bitcoin.
But it is a stark contrast to where we've been the last, you
know, 15-16 years of Bitcoin, where we've been on the outside,
we've been getting fought and we've been kind of relegated
into the dark corners of the Internet.
And ever since last year, now you're starting to see there is
a, a gradual move into Bitcoin. And for all of us that's been in
Bitcoin for a long time, that Bitcoin or the, the meme
institutions are here, you know, they're going to save Bitcoin,
they're going to pump our pump our bags.
It hasn't really happened yet because I think they are still
like we're seeing with this Morgan Stanley ETF and BNY
Mellon ETF. It, it takes, it takes a while.
They, these institutions move very slowly.
Now, one other thing I do want to bring up real quickly is do
you guys remember who one of the biggest donors to the Trump
administration was? It was from a banking family.
Can you connect the two? It was BNY Mellon.
So now they're getting into Bitcoin.
One of the biggest donors to the Trump administration was this
banking family, the Mellons. And now we're seeing, hey,
they're getting into Bitcoin. Look, I think you guys seen me
on the show be like, I don't know how excited I am for
Bitcoin and politics to collide. Yes, I've gotten more political.
Yes, this show has gotten more political.
Rightly so, in my opinion, because politics is here, but
you're seeing the political machine is starting to get
behind Bitcoin. The institutional machine is
starting to get behind Bitcoin. Again, there's pros and cons to
this. Obviously the Pro is always
they're going to pump our bags That that that's all I care
about really. It's like, are they going to
pump our bags? If they do, all right, cool, we
don't really need you, but I'll, I'll take some, you know, some
bag, pump it, cheer. On the flip side, we are seeing
there is this seemingly coordinated effort to
centralized a lot of Bitcoin to literally incentivize you to
give get rid of your Bitcoin into these products.
And then they can do whatever kind of crazy move they want to
do or whatever crazy plan they have for your Bitcoin.
As I always say, it's usually about the shit corners.
You know, shit corners love Bitcoin, They just love your
Bitcoin more. I think we can, you know, put an
iteration on this. Wall Street loves Bitcoin.
They just love your Bitcoin more.
So you have to do whatever you can to make sure that you do not
give up your Bitcoin. Do not fall for the siren song.
Now I know we're all wondering what exactly is pushing the
Bitcoin price, like why is Bitcoin currently in the face of
macro geopolitical uncertainty that you would expect Bitcoin to
drop? I was fully expecting Bitcoin to
crash on Monday and here we are. Bitcoin is up at 73 K.
It is a very interesting thought experiment that I will talk
about towards the end of the show 'cause I'm going to compare
it to other assets currently and how well Bitcoin has performed
so. Maybe there's not one storyline
that is pumping Bitcoin right now.
It could be as Nick Bhatia tweeted, a combination of all
these things. He's like I reflect reflected on
this morning Bitcoin news for a couple of hours.
This was at 10 AM. You know, this news came out in
the morning. He goes.
The combination of cracking, getting a Federal Reserve master
account, Morgan Stanley filing for a Bitcoin ETF with BNY
Mellon as custodian feels like just another institutional
adoption Newsday. But in reality, it's probably
one of those days that changes the game again forever in
bitcoins favor the USA is Bitcoin country.
And I think with the news of Trump coming out and really
standing on the frontline to being like, look, we have to get
this clarity act through. It really is oh, I didn't pull
it up. It really is kind of changing
the tide here, especially when you we you see that like we're
in another war in Iran right now.
A lot of a lot of conversation, a lot of contention of whether
we're in a forever war or whether this is going to end in,
you know, a few days, a few weeks, a few months.
We really don't know what's going on.
And that is where I was most curious about this this morning.
It's like like Trump, I feel like has a lot more on his plate
this morning in, in regards to what is happening in Iran that
the fact that he's tweeting about the clarity act now, it is
a, it is a strange move to me personally.
Now, you guys in the chat might think differently, but from my
kind of, you know, game theory of what is the highest bullet
point on Trump's list of things he needs to do, I was fully
convinced that the crypto stuff, the Bitcoin stuff, the Clarity
Act would be at the lower part of his list.
And here we are in the middle of the skirmish.
He thinks it's important to be tweeting about the Clarity Act.
Now, you could argue a lot of different ways on this.
I know some of the chat is not so Trump friendly.
I've been very critical on Trump.
Nico is still wrapping his head around the idea of is Trump good
or bad for Bitcoin? Was it a mistake to vote him in
again? I truly believe that the Bitcoin
idea, the Bitcoin superpower of the world, I think it is a good
idea. We saw it take place in El
Salvador. It was a great idea for El
Salvador. Though El Salvador is a tiny
country, it's a blip on the map. the US being the world reserve
superpower, being the head superpower, at least for now.
Embracing Bitcoin is a huge narrative shift from what we've
been doing in Bitcoin in the past to where we currently are
now. Now I know a lot of us and me
included, and some of you guys in the chat, we look at Trump
getting into Bitcoin and we're probably wondering and debating
like, was it really a good idea? It it's almost like he's done
more harm to our space than good recently.
But if the clarity Act does get approved or the bill that
they're going to vote through does get approved and it is
favorable for the industry and capital does come into Bitcoin
or sorry, into the US for Bitcoin and crypto at large.
I think it will be one of those defining moments.
So I do, I don't want to do the, the, the, you know,
quintessential, like sometimes centuries happened in days and
sometimes there's centuries that nothing happened.
But today's news story does or multiple news stories does seem
like one of those days that we will probably be looking back on
and being like, OK, you know, in hindsight, the signs were there.
It's very obvious what is going on.
I think a lot of the uncertainty, a lot of the
division going on right now, I really believe that the Bitcoin
stuff, the crypto stuff was going to just completely be
sidelined, not talked about again, especially since the
midterms are coming up. But Trump found it very
important to be tweeting about this.
And again, you know, he just, he did have a meeting with Brian
Armstrong and the timeline apparently suggests that he had
a closed door meeting with Brian Armstrong.
Then he tweeted this. So maybe Brian Armstrong was
able to get in his ear and be like, look, it's the banks that
are fighting us. We want to try to get what your
agenda is across the goal line, but it's the banks that are
fighting us yesterday, like the clip I played you Jamie Diamonds
out here like, hey, we want you know, we're we're not the ones
that are slowing the clarity Act Bill is like, we want to get
this done. We just want to make sure it's
fair and competitive and level playing field where they're
literally the biggest bank in the world and they probably have
all of the not so fair advantages here.
The timing is very interesting from my opinion and especially
now that Bitcoin is pumping well, I mean, for us, that's
been around for a while. This could be considered a, you
know, pump for ants here. But the fact that Bitcoin is at
73 K and we're seeing all these news, I don't think we can
pinpoint one specific news line to really explain the Bitcoin
pump. I think it's a multitude of
factors right now. And of course, the simple supply
demand dynamics of Bitcoin. It's probably just because
someone wants to buy a lot of Bitcoin.
The reason the Bitcoin price goes up, it's because people are
buying Bitcoin right now. But again, that narrative in and
of itself is very interesting considering I think most of us
would think that World War Three would be bad for Bitcoin.
Now, we're still not necessarily in World War Three, but that is
what the narrative is. It's like, man, did did Trump
just start World War 3 and now he's focused on Bitcoin and the
Clarity Act passing? It's like I think he's got
bigger fish to fry right now. But hey, it seems like they're
still very serious to try to get the Clarity Act across.
Excuse me. And I know, like I said, there
was like a kind of a pseudo deadline of March 1st.
Now that's the deadline that Trump wanted to make it happen.
It's not the official deadline. There's still speculations and
rumors that we might get something for the Clarity Act
through by the end of March. So this is an ongoing developing
story here. Again, I'm I'm really not
holding my breath on it, but this is some positive momentum
that the clarity Act will pass. And the only reason most
bitcoiners probably want the clarity Act is the whole
regulatory, you know, rules of the road here is most likely, or
at least this is the thesis going to attract more capital
into Bitcoin. The idea is that a lot of
institutions and investors are sitting on the sideline until
they get some clear rules of the road.
Now, obviously there's other factors playing out right now,
which is of course, the war in the Middle East.
I think a lot of investors, a lot of people that are looking
where to deploy their capital are sitting on the sidelines.
They're not really sure, but the markets are reacting very
interesting. They they've been whipsawing in
equities, in gold and silver this morning.
Almost everything is up. So it's very interesting when
you try to understand the investing mentality here.
It's like, is our investors pricing in the idea that we're
not going to be in a forever war?
Are they finally fully digesting the fact that we are in a new
war in the Middle East, even though Trump said we weren't
going to be there? So I think we are starting to
see that people are currently at least going through the 1st
phases of deploying their capital where they think it it
needs to go so that they can get a really good return.
So we'll see. We're we're definitely on the
sidelines, us bit corners that are all in.
We're just kind of sitting here like twiddling our thumbs just
like, OK, can something happen? Can something finally happen?
Because it's been slow, it's been boring.
The news has been pretty slow recently.
And then this morning we get a bunch of news happening and
you're like, OK, well, maybe maybe the first, you know, first
month or two of the year was very slow.
And maybe now we're going to ramp up the news cycle and a
bunch of things are going to happen just consecutively
back-to-back to back. Now, I, I don't have any insight
if we're going to get anything big happening this week, but it
does seem like the, you know, the actions around Bitcoin are,
are starting to ramp up a little bit.
So I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some fireworks
happening in Bitcoin, whether it's big news story, whether
it's the price start going up. Though I did ask you guys
yesterday, do you guys think this is a suckers rally?
I think a lot of us are thinking it is a suckers rally.
Obviously, I'm, I'm on the opposite side.
I'm like, Nah, bro, I told you the bear market wasn't going to
go to 40. KII told you we were going to go
sideways. Yes, it went lower than I
thought it was. So I'm I'm still, I'm still
unsure. I'm 5050 right now.
I'm prepared for the worst, but I am starting to get hopeful.
I am starting to get a little bullish that hey, maybe this
isn't the absolute breakout out of the bear market, but this
could be the beginning of the end of the bear market.
If that's the case, then we might not have to wait till
October to get a bottom here. We might not even have to wait
till summertime to get a bottom here.
We could start seeing the price action respond very well.
And I, I've been seeing some, some, you know, Bitcoin
influencers saying that Bitcoin always goes up in March and
we're going to crash after March.
That could be the case. This could be the suckers rally.
This, this could be, you know, historically Bitcoin does pretty
well in March. So this could be the fake out
pump and then we dump again. So I'm not going to get too
excited here, but I am starting to get a little more optimistic
about where we currently are in the bear market cycle.
Again, only hindsight will show me whether I was right or wrong.
So look, I, I leave, you know, the optionality of me changing
my opinion as more information comes in, but it, it's looking
pretty good. Again, the biggest surprising
thing for me is 1, how Bitcoin has reacted on the news of a, a
new war in the Middle East. And then two, Trump talking
about the clarity act while he's in the middle of operation Epic
Fury, you know, continuing this mission in the Middle East.
It's just the, the coincidences, the timing, however you want to
look at this, It's all very interesting from my opinion.
It's starting to make the case like, oh, OK, maybe maybe the
bear market wasn't as bad as we all expected it to be, which is
kind of what a lot of people been saying.
No 8, you know, no blow off top, therefore no 80% correction
could be playing out like this. So the point remains the same
for you guys that are just stacking Bitcoin continuously,
that don't look at the price. This really doesn't change
anything. But the narratives around
Bitcoin, the, the, the happenings, the news stories
that are happening around Bitcoin, it is starting to, you
know, change course. It is starting to feel a little
more positive for the Bitcoin industry.
Maybe the end of this year we will be seeing some fireworks.
It's all I'm saying, May maybe the doom and gloom
demoralization of Bitcoiners, maybe we saw the worst behind
us. It's all I'm saying here, guys.
That's all I'm going to say. OK, now for the rest of the
show. I do have an interesting clip
coming out of Fox News in regards to the, you know, free
Iran. What what happens if the Trump
administration is successful in Iran and what that means for
Bitcoin. Again, shouts out to Charles
Payne, another really great Bitcoin podcaster.
He's not really, he's on Fox News, but he's pro Bitcoin.
And then we got some interesting news coming out of the ECB.
My girl, Chrissy Lagarde, she's getting very scared here and
saying the obvious out loud. She's saying the quiet parts out
loud, guys, maybe we are winning.
Maybe this is what winning feels like and then like I said a
minute ago to in the culture, I am going to analyze a little bit
of how Bitcoin has reacted in regards to all of these
geopolitical macro events. And you know, spoiler, Bitcoin's
still doing the best in regards to all of the crazy stuff
happening. So first commercial break, I'll
be right back after this announcement or you know,
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All right, guys. So Chad, you guys are funny.
The current Bitcoin price is $73,150 per Bitcoin, which is a
42% discount from all time high. The market cap, it's inching
back up guys. We're getting closer to 2
trillion. That $1.3 trillion market cap,
man, that was brutal. It's really making me feel bad
about myself here. We're currently at 1.46
trillion. The block height TikTok next
block, the universal time on planet Earth is the block
height. We are currently at 939,296.
All right guys. So as I was telling you, we are
seeing interesting stuff, some interesting developments.
And you know, what we like to do here on the show a lot is some
days we don't just talk about the news per SE.
We talk about how the corporate press, the propaganda machines
talk about Bitcoin. And obviously for the entire
history of Bitcoin, they usually have a bias bent against
Bitcoin. And only in the last few years
really because of Joe Kernan on Squawk Box and Charles Payne on
Fox News did we see a a more positive view on Bitcoin.
And This is why I call them the Bitcoin podcasters, the best
Bitcoin podcasters. It's, it's really 'cause they
have huge platforms and they obviously are pro Bitcoin.
This clip is pretty interesting though.
From my perspective, I would say maybe it's a little hopium.
It, it, it's, it's a little hopeful.
OK, it, it, I think while the, the, the theory is probably
correct, I think it's assuming a lot.
But nonetheless, the fact that we're hearing this come out on
Fox News is very interesting though.
We, we could, we got to be 100% obvious honest here.
Like in the last few weeks or sorry, the last few days I have
been flipping between CNN, Fox News, CNBC, just to see how each
side is talking about the war in Iran, just to see what
narratives they're talking about.
You know what, what the bias is, who's pro who's, who's for it?
You know who's somewhat neutral on this idea?
Obviously, you could probably guess who's who just based on
what I what I said. And Fox News, obviously they've
been very favorable towards the war in Iran.
So this is a favorable take on the war in Iran.
But they brought in an interesting take here, which is
Bitcoin. And we're seeing this
conversation happen on Fox News, on the public press, the
corporate press, this idea of like, wait, and actually me and
Sophie were talking about this. We were, we were joking about a
title for a show. And it's like, is World War
three actually good for Bitcoin? Like how come Bitcoin's pumping?
Why are we seeing on Fox News they talk favorably about
Bitcoin in the context of a war. I know Bitcoin in from our
perspective, one of our big memes is this idea of Bitcoin
being anti war Fiat being pro war Fiat is literally the money
of war. They, they took a pretty
interesting, interesting take on, on this clip on Fox News.
So I'm going to play again. You know, I think directionally
it's probably correct in the sense of like, yeah, I, I can
see this playing out. I think it's, it's a bit
hopeful, but let me play the clip and then and then I'll I'll
gauge your guys's opinion on it. 87% of the Iranians inside Iran
and 93% of Iranians outside Iran are ready to topple that down
this region. We have a leader, Reza Pahlavi,
who's going to lead the transition into a free Iran.
And after that, Oh my gosh, it is going to be a new day in the
world. Less Fewer proxy world wars,
less terrorism. A new ally for the US with a lot
of energy. And that's why you talk about a
freedom run with the big picture because everyone's looking right
now at oil prices. You're like, forget about about
that. Let's look at the big, big
picture. Good coin.
I just talked about it with David forming a bottom here.
Are you buying Bitcoin here? So here's another I'm going to
actually bring back Iran. Islamic regime actually controls
2 to 5% of Bitcoin hash rate globally.
So because it's again the energy, so supply of Bitcoin in
the free Iran is potentially going to go down.
What does that mean? Low supply for the market, low
supply, high demand. So yes, I'm buying.
Love it. Love it.
Yeah. You know, more demand usually
means Bitcoin price goes up again.
The framing is the most interesting aspect of this.
They're on Fox News, historically right leaning.
They are pro, pro whatever the Republican president does.
So they are painting the war in Iran very favorably.
You know, a free Iran is kind of the idea.
If you guys remember what Trump said in regards to why they did
Operation Epic Fury, it was essentially to destroy the
leadership there and let the people, you know, rise, let the
people take control of their government.
There's still a lot of debate if whether that is actually going
to happen, that they are trying to do the Venezuela model on
Iran, though, apparently, you know, wasn't able to happen over
the weekend. It wasn't able to happen from
Friday night to Monday morning. We're there now.
And the narratives that we are hearing from the Trump
administration is, is a little conflicted.
They started off with, hey, this is going to be 4 to 5 days and
then it's going to be 4 to 6 months.
And now the the most recent headlines are like, we don't
know if we're going to be there for a little bit.
We might be there for a lot longer.
Trump is even saying forever wars now.
So look, the idea, at least the official narrative is like, this
is going to be short. This is going to be quick.
We will be seeing a free Iran and and that's at least what
they want to happen. Now whether that will happen is
a totally different conversation.
But again, bringing the Bitcoins narrative back in here, the
Bitcoin story of this is they're on Fox News talking about, hey,
a free Iran will obviously benefit Bitcoin in in a few
ways. The people will be able to save
in Bitcoin. As we saw when I showed you guys
the chart yesterday, since the war or actually preceding the
war, the build up to the war, we are seeing a lot of money on
Iranian exchanges or from Iranian citizens flowing into
Bitcoin and we're seeing that Bitcoin leave the exchanges.
So the Bitcoin narrative of when you need Bitcoin because of
geopolitical uncertainty, because you maybe don't trust
your government, because you know when there is a war, it's
hard to get your money out of the banks.
We are seeing that flight to safety into Bitcoin as
Bitcoiners have always been saying this was going to happen.
It's happening now. The interesting take on this is
like, hey, there's a lot of energy, of course, in the Middle
East. They do have a significant
amount of hash rate. Now, will that increase if there
is a free Iran or further, will the proliferation of Bitcoin
increase in the country? Once people to understand the
power of Bitcoin, that idea that, hey, you don't have to
trust the banks, you don't have to trust the traditional banking
system. All you have to do is get money
into it, take it off the exchange.
So if this does play out exactly like the Trump administration
views it, well, a short term free Iran, then you could kind
of venture to guess or at least speculate that Iran might become
a a hotbed for or maybe that's not the best and they might
become a a perfect soil for a circular economy to build in
Iran. Now, that is the fabled, you
know, moving goal post that Bitcoiners always like to talk
about this idea that true Bitcoin adoption is not just
about the price going up, but it's people actually using
Bitcoin. And by that they mean using
Bitcoin as money. Though I would argue what we're
seeing from the data is Iranians actually using Bitcoin as a
flight to safety, as a store of value, as something that if you
do need to move, you put it in Bitcoin.
And it's a lot easier to move cross-border than, you know,
say, a hyperinflating currency or gold or jewelry or whatever
it is. This is the use case of Bitcoin
happening, being tried, being tested and fully vindicated in
real time. You actually love to see it.
It is. It is a a bit bittersweet
considering the chaos and the turmoil that's happening over
there. But this is what Bitcoiners have
been saying for a long time. This is why you need Bitcoin for
anyone out there that's saying there's no use case for Bitcoin.
I don't think this is a better like you couldn't have a better
example than to be like, look, this is on the ground real time
use of Bitcoin that no other money in the world can even come
close to. It's, it's honestly, again, it's
bittersweet and it sounds kind of messed up to say, but this
is, this is great to see. You'd love to see that.
Yes, there is turmoil in the Middle East.
Yes, you the, the Iranian rial is absolutely hyperinflating
currently and we are seeing a flight to safety to Bitcoin.
Anyone that says there's no use case for Bitcoin, all you're
doing is hoarding Bitcoin. I this this might be one of
those new stories to really pull on their heartstrings.
Now, you know, not to say that we need to emotionally
manipulate everyone to buy into Bitcoin, but emotionally
persuasive data points do get people to start to change their
tune around Bitcoin. So it is a very interesting
development to just see that Fox News talking about the war,
they're talking about Bitcoin being a use case to offset the
troubles of the Iranian people. It's happening, guys.
It really is happening. Now I know I've been critical.
I've been cynical on the idea of like, if this is what winning
feels like, it doesn't feel that good.
OK, I I've been on that boat. I am, I am on that boat.
But seeing these data points are seeing these news stories,
seeing this happen in real time, it does make me feel a little
more optimistic about where we're going.
It does make me, you know, feel less of a doomer, less, you
know, beat down, less demoralized because Bitcoin is
working exactly as it's been designed.
As we've all been saying, it's doing exactly as it should be
when people need it most. And that's probably the biggest
take away for Bitcoin. Yes, you know, we want the
Bitcoin price to run. We want Bitcoin to go up.
We personally, I feel cheated by not having you know, number go
up in 2025, but Bitcoin is winning.
People are using Bitcoin when they need it and that is one of
those narratives or rather one of those memes, those rhetorical
tools that bitcoiners have been using.
It's hey, like bitcoins not going away, TikTok next block.
Bitcoin will be there for you when you need it most and it's
happening guys. So there is Silver Linings
throughout all of the crazy stuff that we're seeing in the
world right now. There is a silver lining
starting off 2026. Maybe, maybe, just maybe, I'm
going to have to be a little more stoic here.
You know, I'm I I can't let my emotions run with the price with
the headlines. This is a bittersweet feel good
news story in my opinion. And hey, bitcoins working like
we we thought it would all right guys, this one's going to be a
little fun. I actually here's a here.
There was a good comment in here by one of one of our friends in
the chat. Let me let me just say this
comment before, if I can find it, before I move into, yeah,
here we go, our boy Winsome. And I'm saying this because I
think it sets a good context for the ECB news that we're going to
see winsome hacks goes if you steal something, you end up not
being allowed to do certain jobs, not when you're Lagarde's
social class. So just just keep that little
troll in mind while we talk about the ECB in the next
segment. I'll be right back.
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Everybody OK, maybe, maybe later, maybe you'll get one
minute. All right.
OK, guys, get get this. So a new European Central Bank
paper, dropped research paper and the short of it, and I will
read just a little bit of it, but the short of it is the ECB
dropped a paper warning that growing stablecoin adoption
could pull deposits out of banks, constrained lending and
weaken its ability to transmit money, transmit monetary policy
with the risk rising sharply as adoption scale.
It's almost like that's the point, right?
Like I, I look Chrissy or ECB, she didn't write it.
It's like, you know, it's almost like that's the point.
It's almost like you're pointing out the obvious.
Again, we're seeing we, we are seeing a narrative from banks,
central banks, regional banks, you know, the Jamie Diamonds,
the Christie Lagarde, the Jerome Powells of the world really
point out the obvious of what Bitcoin and I guess further
stable coins are doing. And they kind of painted as
like, oh, this is a bad thing and you're just like, no, like
this, like that's the point. This is the point, This is the
point of this. Okay, so anyways, let me let me
pull up the paper real quick here is on the ECB.
This is actually from the European Central Bank.
I went, I went to the government, I searched for it
guys, and it is titled Working Paper Series, Stable Coins and
Monetary Policy transmission. Again, you know, it's 46 pages.
We're not going to read this mumbo jumbo, but I will read a
little bit, not the abstract, but the non-technical summary,
of course, start talking about digital assets and how people
are starting to use it and how, you know, the central bank might
need to update their infrastructure.
At the very least, keep in mind that this is a phenomenon that's
happening. So here's the first point with
the question How do stable coins affect banks?
The first key finding is that growing use of stable coins can
lead people and firms to move money out of the traditional
bank deposits and into digital assets.
Again, dude, the absolute obvious like these guys get paid
to do. I thought these guys were smart.
What are we doing here? And it goes.
Banks rely heavily on deposits as a stable and low cost source
of funding to support lending the households and businesses.
When deposits decline, banks may be forced to rely more on
wholesale or market based funding, which is typically more
expensive and less stable. Our analysis shows that
increasing interest in and attention towards stable coins
are associated with a measurable decline in retail bank deposits
and a reduction in bank lending to firms.
In other words, stablecoins can reduce the amount of credit
banks provide to the real economy.
Importantly, these effects are non linear and depend critically
on the scale of stablecoin adoption, their design features
and their regulatory treatment. Yeah, that is literally the
point. Bitcoin, and I guess to some
extent stablecoins do limit your ability to create money out of
thin air. This is the point of all this.
If you don't understand how banking works, very simply, and
maybe this is too simple, but when you give your money to a
bank, they take your money. It doesn't sit in an account
untouched. They take your money and they
lend that money so that they can make a return, therefore
expanding the money supply, creating literally money out of
thin air. You got to remember, debt is
money. Those dollar bills you have in
your pocket, that is just an IOU.
That is just a claim on debt. It's not real.
It's literally just a paper IOU saying, hey, this was created
out of thin air. This is someone's debt that we
are monitoring advertising so that you can use it as a
currency. Here we have the ECB report
stating the absolute obvious. It's like it's yes, this is the
point. At at least we can all agree on
that. This is the war going on.
Hence this whole theme of today's show is very simple.
And someone in the chat said it earlier.
I think it was down under Blues. He's like, this is a war with
Fiat. This is Bitcoin versus Fiat
currency. This is a monetary war
happening. It's not kinetic, it's not
violent. It is an ideological information
war. But finally we're seeing the ECB
acknowledge what is going on. Yes, if people start using
Bitcoin, you will have less money to create more debt.
That is the literal point of this.
That is what we're trying to do. I'm glad we can agree on the
terms. Finally, though of course, this
this report, it's making this seem like a bad thing, which in
in fact is really a good thing. Now going further goes, what
does this mean for monetary policy?
The second finding concerns how monetary policy works in the
euro area. Banks play a central role in
transmitting interest rate changes to households and firms.
When deposits shift into stable coins, or from our perspective
into Bitcoin, this transmission mechanism changes.
We find that stable coin adoptions interfere with
multiple monetary policy transmission channels,
potentially weakening the predictability of policy
actions. I mean, maybe just like, you
know, a small group of people shouldn't be in control of
monetary policy. Maybe you want to use a neutral
scarce money that no one controls and you know, the
market will very organically get to the interest rates that are
fair for the market. But no, you know, let's, let's
blame Bitcoin, let's blame stablecoin for the fact that no
one has the right insight to accurately create the interest
rates that the economy needs. Maybe we should outsource that
to the market. I don't know, I maybe I'm an
extremist. Maybe I'm, you know, too far
gone down the Bitcoin rabbit hole.
Maybe I've drinking the orange kool-aid a little too much.
But from my perspective, sounds a lot better than trusting a
small group of people that are literally fleecing everyone
stealing from you and saying hey, we're doing we're doing the
doing you the favor. We're hey, we're here to protect
you, the little guy. Where, where will you need us to
push back the flood of you losing your wealth?
Hence why I brought up that that comment by Winsome is like
we're, we're getting to the point where they're like, look,
if people start using Bitcoin and, and I'm, I'm, I'm
paraphrasing here, this is, this is Opti's paraphrasing of what
the ECB is saying, that they're basically saying, hey, if you
use Bitcoin or if you use stablecoin, we'll use their
example. If you use stablecoins, then you
are going to distort our ability to take from you more.
I don't know, it sounds like a good thing to me personally.
So I, I do, I look, I'm, I'm honestly completely on board
with their, their whole analysis here.
I, I'm totally on board with what the ECB is saying.
For once. They're like, yeah, you're kind
of, you're kind of finally saying the truth out loud, kind
of like we're finally on board with the same ideas of what
we're actually doing here. OK, now one more point.
And then I, I will, you know, get a, get a funny, ooh, look at
that. Get a funny, you know, breakdown
from a Bitcoiner. A fellow bitcoiner.
Here we go. Why does the currency of stable
coins matter? The third policy relevant
finding relates to the currency in which stable coins are
denominated. If stable coins linked to non
euro currency such as the US dollar where to become widely
used in the euro area, the risk to monetary policy would
increase significantly. In such a scenario, changes in
global financial conditions, foreign monetary policy
decisions or shifts in investor confidence could directly affect
liquidity and spending conditions in the euro era area.
Sorry. Regardless of domestic policy
decisions, in simple terms, foreign monetary conditions
could be imported into the euro area through stablecoins.
This would weaken the central bank's control over financial
condition. I repeat, weaken the central
bank's control over financial conditions, reduce the
effectiveness of traditional monetary policy instruments, and
make it harder to stabilize inflation and economic activity,
especially during periods of financial stress.
And of course, their findings. These findings highlight the
importance of thoughtful regulation.
Man, it's honestly, this is beautiful.
It's a master class. Shouts out to the ECB.
Absolute master class in, I don't know, information warfare,
though, as you can see when you read that, you probably get the
perspective like, Oh yeah, maybe, maybe the stable coin
things are a bad thing. But when you get the filter,
when you get the Bitcoin filter through this, you're like, yeah,
honestly, I kind of totally agree with everything you're
saying and I'm kind of totally on board with this.
I totally believe that central banks around the world should
have less financial control. They should have less financial
control. I'm like, yeah, that's this is
great. Now I would go further and I, I
think really, really the IT should be Bitcoin in here
instead of stable coins. But as we know, the ECB is very,
very adamant about them dropping ACBDC.
And right now stablecoins are the threat to their CBDC system
because why would you need the ECBCBDC if you could just use a
stablecoin? One, you're probably going to
get a better yield on it to the central bank can't cut you off
whenever they want to. But really in reality, when you
look at that three paragraphs that I read and you add Bitcoin
into that instead of stablecoins, that is the real
play at hand. As the US has done with
stablecoin regulation, using stablecoins as a Trojan horse
from my opinion, for Bitcoin to get in, because you can't
acknowledge stablecoins and not acknowledge or accept Bitcoin,
at least in some semblance of respect for what Bitcoin is or
what digital assets are. You're seeing that the ECB is
doing the opposite. They're using stablecoins as the
big bad boogeyman. But in reality, it's Bitcoin
that, that really should be the ire of the ECB.
But you know, I, I think they're, they're starting to see
that that probably isn't going to be looked upon favorably.
And, and personally, I'm, I'm OK with this.
This is one of the things that Bitcoiners have been saying for
a long time. It's like the only use case for
shitcoins. And I'm not necessarily saying
stablecoins or shitcoins per SE. I know some people do, as we've
seen, there is actual adoption of stablecoins around the world.
So I think the idea of stablecoins as a bridge from
Fiat to Bitcoin, maybe it's a first step to Bitcoin.
I, I think it's pretty apt. I, I think it, it's a legitimate
kind of narrative, but they're doing, the ECB is, is doing
exactly that. They're, they're using shit
coins as the kind of like the squid ink here, you know, the
octopus ink to confuse not only themselves, but everyone else.
And that is, that is the beauty of shit coins.
Why they all try to regulate the shit coins.
And again, not necessarily saying stable coins or shit
coins, but it's not Bitcoin. It's cover for Bitcoin.
So look, let let the US government embrace stable coins
or, you know, export dollar hegemony around the world.
Bitcoin's going to get through the door.
Let the ECB attack stable coins. I don't think they're going to
be successful. But with that comes Bitcoin gets
through the door. I think this report is, is very
telling in what their narrative is and and also what their
hubris is. It's like, yeah, look, this is
the point. We want you to have less
control. That was the literal inception
of this idea. That was the initial route of
all of this. You should have less control.
There shouldn't be central banks around the world controlling
interest rates, controlling the money.
We are living in a debt Ponzi right now.
Personally, I want to move into something that is scarce, that
is neutral, that cannot be debased, that cannot be
controlled by a single entity or entities.
This is the point of all of this.
So Chrissy Lagarde, maybe, maybe we slow clap for her for
approving this report because it's beautiful.
It's a beautiful master class. I, I love to see this again.
They are talking about stable coins, but man, they're finally
saying it out loud. You got you got to love it.
You got to love it. I absolutely love this let's go.
This is this is good stuff here. This is really good stuff from
the ECB, but you know in reverse counter counter signal here from
the ECB. Gotta love it.
Love to see you. All right, guys, before I move
on though, oh, actually, sorry, I do have a good tweet.
Shouts out to Fernando. He is working on Bitcoin
perception, BTC perception. He was at Block stream for a
little bit. I love, I love this tweet here.
This is great. I'm not going to read the whole
thing 'cause he, he talks about himself a little bit and he used
to work in the music industry, but he goes, wait a minute, hold
on here. So the European Central Bank
published a paper warning that stablecoin adoption could pull
deposits out of the banking system.
The people who run the monetary system are admitting in an
academic paper that their product might lose to a better
product. The diagnosis is correct.
The conclusion they'll draw from it, of course, will be to
regulate the competition instead of improving their own product.
As I mentioned, the threat assessment was always accurate,
but the response was always protectionism, and protectionism
always loses. Absolutely beautiful.
Master class from the ECB and
just how to wreck yourself. Gotta love it, gotta love it.
All right guys, before I move on, like I was saying, make sure
you get your tickets to Las Vegas 2026 April 27th through
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you get 10% off All right, guys. So to wrap up today's show, we
are going to talk about how's Bitcoin reacted in the face of
all of the biggest moments we've seen in the last few years from
a geopolitical macro perspective.
Spoiler alert, it's still the best.
All right, it's still the absolute best.
So quick commercial break, last commercial break and we will
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Sorry guys, it's getting a little cottonmouth here talking
for an hour or so. Forgive me for taking a sip of
water. All right, guys, So bring him
back an idea that I brought up in the beginning of the show.
Actually, I've been talking about it all week and it is my
surprise to how strong Bitcoin has reacted in the face of the
new war in the Middle East or the new operation.
I know they're not calling it a war yet, but for all intents and
purposes, we are at war in the Middle East with Iran.
And I was very surprised to see Bitcoin not tank on the opening
of the markets on Monday. Now, there is a few things you
can point to. One of the things is obviously a
lot of Bitcoiners saying, oh hey, Jane St's no longer
manipulating the market. Now, whether they were or
weren't, there is a coincidence here that ever since the court
case against them for price manipulation in the 2022
collapse came to light, or rather was issued and came out,
we aren't seeing the 10 AM slams on Bitcoin.
And maybe maybe that push down of the Bitcoin price potentially
from Jane Street is why Bitcoin is seemingly running right now.
Now I know it's at 73 K. It's like, what is this a pump
for ants? I think we're up today or in the
last two days about 6-7 percent. But since the Iran war, Bitcoin
is up 12%. And again, that to me is the
most surprising signal here, the fact that Bitcoin is up multiple
percentages when you'd expect it to go down.
Now, I saw a really good tweet kind of analyzing this and
comparing this to the S&P 500 in gold.
And it just, it just shows you that even though Bitcoin maybe
has not performed as well as we'd like in the last year,
Bitcoin has still been outperforming everything else in
the face of huge geopolitical events.
So here's James Van Stratton, of course, he's senior analyst at
Coindesk. And he goes, remember this
chart, and this is a chart, this was by BlackRock, Robbie
Mitchnick, Mitchnick, Mitchnick, I think it's Mitchnick this.
So this was an official chart from BlackRock and they're
showing the S&P 500 gold and Bitcoin through major
geopolitical events. The first one, of course, was
the US Iran escalation last year January or sorry, not last year,
January 3rd, 2020. And you can see 10 day returns
and 60 day returns based on, you know, gold, S&P 500 and Bitcoin
response to these huge new political events.
So in 2020, after the US Iran escalation, S&P 500 went up 2%,
gold was flat and Bitcoin went up 12%.
Ten day return after the 60 day return, S&P 500 was down 7%,
gold was up 6% and Bitcoin went up 20%.
Again, the 2020 pandemic pandemic.
Wait, pandemic? Sorry that I I misspoke there.
S&P 500 was down 20%, Gold was down 9%.
Bitcoin did go down further, it went down 25%.
But the 60 day return S&P 500 was up 2%, Gold was up 30% and
Bitcoin went up 21%. Now going further, the 2020 US
election challenges in November 3rd 2020, S&P 500 up 7%, Gold
down 1%, Bitcoin up 19 percent. 60 day return, 2 month return.
S&P 500 up 12%, Gold down 1%, Bitcoin up 131%.
Now going further, Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022,
Bitcoin did go down more than S&P 500.
S&P was 1%, Gold 2%, Bitcoin went down -6%.
But the 60 day returns, Bitcoin up 15%, while gold's at 9S and
P500's at 3. US regional banking crisis in
2023. Remember that?
That was fun. S&P 500 down to gold up 10%,
Bitcoin up 25%. Sixty day return, Bitcoin up
32%, gold 11, S&P 504%. Now the yen carry trade, which
was all of the rage last year, August 5th, 2020.
Oh sorry, in 2024, last year we saw it unwinding.
Forgive me. We saw S&P 500 up 2%, Gold and
Bitcoin flat. Now we have the updated numbers
here 'cause this chart wasn't updated and it is just a fill in
the blank. The 60 days after the yen carry
unwind in August 5th of 2024, Bitcoin went up 21%, gold went
up 9%, SPX went up 3%. Bitcoin outperforming again on
geopolitical events. Now this is the past, right?
I didn't I I it might not be a one minute chart guys, but we we
will look at some charts here. OK, I'll maybe I'll put the one
minute chart after and and forgive all my lines.
This is the deep value red range.
You know, I I got little descending triangle that the
price literally pumped off of. So I will do the one week here
just to kind of show and I'm only going to do actually, I'll
do all of them. I'll do them all for you guys.
Whatever, it's the end of the show.
Here we go. You know Bitcoin up almost 13%
started this week since the Iran war.
So we're not really at the 10 day returns yet for this Iran
war or Operation Epic Fury. But so far Bitcoins up 13%.
Let's see gold, which is probably the most interesting
gold is down about 7.8%. So still still doing well.
We're we're still, you know, we're still holding up to
Bitcoin performs best on these huge geopolitical moves.
And here's S&P 500. Let's see what is this?
I didn't actually check here. All right, so S&P 500 up 2.84%.
I don't know guys, it's almost like Bitcoin is doing exactly
here. Actually, before I go, it's
almost like Bitcoin is doing exactly as designed.
Here's the one minute chart for you guys, since you guys love it
so much. Since I've mean oh, I didn't
even show you guys. Oh, RIP.
All right, just trust me on those numbers.
I was doing them live for you guys, but just trust me that
those were the numbers. So Bitcoin up 12 almost 13%,
Gold's down almost 8%, S&P 500 is up almost 3% since the start
of the operation Epic fury. So again, another data point
that Bitcoin it, it really is the best performing asset no
matter the conditions. Yes, we had a bad 2025, you
know, you could always cherry pick data points.
But again, huge geopolitical event.
We're almost at the 10 day return for Bitcoin, Bitcoins
reacting the best out of the last huge geopolitical event out
of gold and the S&P 500. I don't know, man, guys, it's
it's almost as if Bitcoin is doing exactly what we thought it
was going to do. When you, when you put it in
this context, it does show that even if we're down on the year,
Bitcoin is still the best thing to hold no matter what the
geopolitical event is. And I'm I think I think it's
going to be eye opening to see this continue to maintain and
and at a certain point, it it is just going to be undeniable.
Bitcoin's the only thing you want to be owning.
I don't know, guys, is this what winning feels like?
Is this what winning feels like? Yes.
Best money on earth, boss. Sorry, sorry, guys, I I I can't
look at the chat. Do you guys, do you not trust
me? OK, All right, OK, all right.
Since you guys don't trust me, You you guys, man, guys don't
trust me. OK, I see how it is.
I see how it is. Here we go all right, so here is
the low for the week to the high almost 13%.
We're going to do gold, gold start of the week and we're and
we're even we're even being maybe I'm being a little too,
you know, cherry picking. But this week, from the high to
the low, it's almost down 8 percent, 7.8%.
And then S&P 500 again. I am being charitable here.
From the low of the week to the high, it's up 3%.
Though in reality, I guess we should do something like that.
It's up. It's not even up a percent.
S&P 500 from market open on the week to current price, it's up
.81% and it just turned red. Love it.
So like Bitcoin? Bitcoin is doing exactly as
designed. Any of the haters out there
saying that Bitcoin has failed, it's been hijacked, you know,
it's been compromised by the banks, yadda, yadda, yadda,
They're trying to sell you something and they're trying to
be bearish on Bitcoin. They're trying to sell you
anything about Bitcoin. At least you guys know my job
here is to sell you Bitcoin. I lean into the idea.
I'm a Bitcoin propagandist. I know my bias.
I am biased towards Bitcoin. Bitcoin has reacted the best
since Operation Epic Fury started.
I don't know. Take that information as you
will, boys. It's almost like Bitcoin is
doing exactly as designed. It is almost like Bitcoin is the
best money in the world. Simply chart, boys.
Yeah, dude, we're I'm a chart boy.
Everyone knows I'm a chart boy. I have meme, the one minute
chart. I literally get you guys
tweeting at me like I better see the one minute chart today.
You know, it's trolls. The one minute chart's just fun
to watch, guys. All right?
It's even more fun when it's dumping or it's pumping.
So whenever you see the price going crazy, I'm telling you,
put on the one minute chart and then monitor your emotions.
The situation you should be monitoring is your emotions when
the price does something. That's the funnest thing here.
All right, can you walk and chew gum?
No, I can't. I I have two brain cells left,
guys. I have two brain cells left and
I cannot do multiple stuff. All righty then, guys.
Well, well, well, all right, so end of the show.
But just to inform you, and you guys might be happy Nika's going
to be gone the rest of the week. He's he's got to take a trip.
So tomorrow I will have a guest with me in person.
If my, if I remember my schedule correctly Friday, I will be
doing the show most likely alone.
So simply opt you for the rest of week.
All right, guys, on that note, I appreciate you guys.
I love you guys. Have a good rest of your day.
Eat some good food, get a workout and get some step.
Get your 10K steps in. And of course, get some sun on
you guys get get on your eyes. We are we are ascending in 2026.
I want you guys to be the best you can be physically, mentally
and of course, financially and spiritually.
We are rising. We are ascending in 2026.
All right, guys. So put down the doughnuts, watch
your calories. It's going to work out.
All right, guys. All right, love you guys.
I will see you tomorrow. Have a good rest of your day.
Peace out. Today's episode was brought to
you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
mission to enable financial independence.