1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,960 September is historically the worst month for Bitcoin. 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:11,320 Prices fall like leaves in fall, but then October shows up like a 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:13,320 laughing pumpkin on a theme park ride. 4 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,360 Today we're putting red September and October on the 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,680 same timeline with receipts, and I'll show you why. 6 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,320 History says that now might be the best time to go trick or 7 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:25,200 treating for some Bitcoin, and no one is talking about it. 8 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:29,000 OK, some people are talking about it. 9 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:31,120 It's a quick. Check on crypto. 10 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:31,880 Prices. As we. 11 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:36,960 Begin the so-called months of. October October with strong. 12 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:40,240 Gains pretty much it's all that anyone talks about I'm oceans. 13 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,440 This is beyond Bitcoin. Grab your pumpkin spice latte 14 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:53,800 and let's dive into October. From 2011 to 2024, data shows 15 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,960 that while May can still be decent, things start to cool off 16 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:01,200 more noticeably in the summer. August, and particularly 17 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:05,040 September, are Bitcoin's weakest months on average, posting 18 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:08,960 slightly negative returns. With traders on holiday and 19 00:01:08,960 --> 00:01:13,280 market activity dipping, prices can move sideways or even down 20 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,120 for a bit. This mirrors the September 21 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:20,120 effect in U.S. stocks, where September has been, on average 22 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,520 the worst performing month for equities. 23 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,800 Many believe it's due to investors returning from summer 24 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:29,920 vacation to realize gains or harvest losses before the year 25 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,480 ends. Cue the Green Day reference. 26 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:38,520 Wake me up when September ends. Just like the pleasant voice 27 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,160 announcer and robotic people explain, September is 28 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,120 historically the worst month for Bitcoin. 29 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:44,760 What is this mustache by the way? 30 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,240 So I kept seeing all this stuff about October on Twitter. 31 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:50,760 X or X and decided to make a video about it. 32 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,880 Maybe think of a question. So in October Bitcoin is 33 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:56,360 supposed to RIP right? So the question I had was what 34 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,240 time in October would it be better to buy? 35 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,800 That sent me down a rabbit hole with some data that I did not 36 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,120 expect. Did you know that from 2010 to 37 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:07,720 2024, September finished higher than it started in seven out of 38 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,039 15 years? That's 46.7%. 39 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,560 And the median September return is -3.5%. 40 00:02:13,640 --> 00:02:16,560 The worst of it was in 2011. That was -38%. 41 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:20,520 Meanwhile, this reoccurring slump gives rise to the expected 42 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,920 rise that October is all about. In fact, from 2010 to 2024, 43 00:02:24,920 --> 00:02:27,480 October finished higher 11 out of 15 years. 44 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,760 That's 73%. The median October return is 45 00:02:30,920 --> 00:02:34,560 +15.4%. And the big one in 2010 was 200. 46 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:40,760 And 16% in 2017 it was 46.9% and in 2021 it was 27.4%. 47 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:42,720 All positive. So that told me something. 48 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,840 Maybe I should buy a bunch of Bitcoin in September and reap 49 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,160 the gains in October. You never sell bro. 50 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:50,600 Kind of Bitcoin Max or you. But this led me to an even 51 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:52,080 bigger question. Why? 52 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:55,000 Why is the Bitcoin price consistent with this rule set 53 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:57,880 76% of the time since its inception? 54 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,880 ChatGPT Why pattern? ChatGPT gave me several possible 55 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:05,960 reasons. 1 seasonality September is soft for risk assets. 56 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:08,960 Funds return from summer and rebalance, trimming high beta 57 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,320 exposure. Bitcoin rides that wave, and 58 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,800 this seems pretty intuitive, but I didn't consider the greater 59 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,800 macro framework before. What's funny about this is that 60 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:20,280 it's a trend that continues for several years prior to Bitcoin, 61 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:22,320 and it's sort of naturally evolved into the state. 62 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:25,480 Guess that's why they say. Sell in May and go away. 63 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:27,840 Sell in May and stay away. How about I? 64 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,480 Just go eat some hay. I can make things out of clay 65 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:32,240 and lay by the Bay. I just may. 66 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:34,800 I wonder if there's a correlation between the Bitcoin 67 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:38,560 price and the annual grade school schedules on any given 68 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:40,040 month. Like spring break would be a 69 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,280 time for selling and Thanksgiving break would be a 70 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,440 time for buying. Maybe I should make a video 71 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,200 about that. It's not a video, leave it 72 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,040 alone. Second on the list of the Chachi 73 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,680 PT reasons. Positioning and expiry. end of 74 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:52,560 September. Futures and options expire, 75 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:55,600 positions close, roles happen, risk gets tidied. 76 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,280 October opens up with cleaner slates and fresh buy programs. 77 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,760 Many of bitcoins listed derivatives, especially on the 78 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:05,440 CME, have monthly expirations on the last Friday of the month. 79 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,200 September is also a quarterly month. 80 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:09,760 March, June, September, December, they're all quarterly 81 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:11,800 months. So traders will typically 82 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,760 offset, hold to expiry and roll over till the next quarter. 83 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:19,000 In short, financially speaking, late September is a busy reset 84 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,120 point. Monthly plus quarterly contracts 85 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,080 expire on the last Friday. Positions get closed, rolled 86 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,040 over, and hedges unwind. Makes sense. 87 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:31,840 Me neither #3 from ChatGPT. Tax and accounting loss 88 00:04:31,840 --> 00:04:35,000 harvesting and book cleaning ahead of Q4 can push Bitcoin 89 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:37,680 lower in late September. I'm guessing a lot of you out 90 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,200 there know what this means, so I'm just going to nod my head 91 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:46,800 like I also do #4 on Chat GPT's list macro calendar. 92 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,760 The new US fiscal year starts October 1st. 93 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,600 Budget headlines, central bank meetings, elevated uncertainty 94 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:57,200 de risk into September. Relief bids in early October. 95 00:04:57,200 --> 00:04:59,560 Wait a second. So for the US federal 96 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:01,600 government, the fiscal year starts in October. 97 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:04,880 Maybe that's why we're always in discussions about the government 98 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:08,400 shutting down in October. Why does that happen? 99 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,480 ChatGPT? Congress moved the federal 100 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:14,120 fiscal year start to October 1st in the 1970s to give itself more 101 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,840 time to run the new formal budget process before the year 102 00:05:17,840 --> 00:05:19,680 begins. Oh wow, I didn't know that. 103 00:05:19,840 --> 00:05:22,920 Number 5 catalyst clustering. Wonderful alliteration. 104 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,240 Big upside headlines have repeatedly landed in October. 105 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,680 For example, Paypal's crypto rollout in October 2020, the 106 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,680 first US Bitcoin ETF launch in October 2021. 107 00:05:32,840 --> 00:05:35,880 This is just a demonstration about how top down policies make 108 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,000 ripples throughout time. You don't release the summer 109 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:43,800 blockbuster in early February. You release it in July or August 110 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,400 or June. You know the summer months. 111 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,240 This is like a positive feedback loop. 112 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,480 Institutions capitalize on the idea that October is an up 113 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:55,120 month. Number six from ChatGPT the 114 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:59,640 means equal the flow of money read September to October is now 115 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:01,960 a thing. Traders pre sell into late 116 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:05,040 August, September, then re risk in October. 117 00:06:05,280 --> 00:06:08,360 Congratulations U.S. financial apparatus, you've built a 118 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,960 season. Careful, that's Q. 4 Optimism 119 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:13,840 we'll. Fall back. 120 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:15,480 Under market. Efficiently. 121 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,560 If you remember one thing, remember this contrast. 122 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:22,640 September ends lower more often than not, and October ends 123 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,320 higher most of the time and usually by a lot. 124 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:27,080 Now strategies. Michael Saylor has a few 125 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,160 thoughts on this subject, but right before that, I want to 126 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:31,200 make a quick shout out to one of our partners here at 127 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:34,760 simplybitcoinsat123.com. Self custody isn't just in your 128 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:36,680 wallet, it's staying connected when the grid isn't. 129 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,080 SAT 123.com outfits you with satellite phones, privacy 130 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,120 bundles, and Faraday bags, even with Starlink options. 131 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,840 So you've got signal when everything else goes dark. 132 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,520 And if you go to sat123.com right now and you put the promo 133 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,040 code simply, you'll get 15% off your purchase. 134 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,600 That's SAT 123.com. Even off grid you'll be on your 135 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,000 terms. You know the why Bitcoin has 136 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:01,360 been consolidating and you know building it, you know, support 137 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:08,240 in the teens right now is because you've got $2.3 trillion 138 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:14,080 of Bitcoin that is unbanked. And so you've got a lot of 139 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,640 people that own a lot of Bitcoin, but they can't get a 140 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,680 loan against it. And because they can't get a 141 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:23,760 loan against it, the only you know, at the point that you all 142 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:27,800 of a sudden find yourself Bitcoin rich but Fiat poor, you 143 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,320 don't have a lot of dollars. We have a lot of Bitcoin and you 144 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,640 can't borrow against it. Then you think I have to go sell 145 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,360 it. So I think Bitcoins right now, 146 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:40,440 it's like this mag 7 startup where all the sudden all the 147 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:45,480 employees got insanely rich on penny stock options, but they 148 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,720 can't borrow against them, so they have to sell them. 149 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,280 And so they're selling. And then people are saying, 150 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,840 well, why are those employees selling the stock? 151 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,040 Is that a vote of not confidence, you know, in the 152 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:57,760 company? And the answer is no. 153 00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:59,480 It's just they have kids to go to college. 154 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,040 They want to buy a house, right? They they want to live 155 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:03,400 comfortably. They want to do something for 156 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:08,600 their parents, and so right now I think that the selling is owed 157 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:12,040 crypto O GS that have had a lot of money for a long time. 158 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:16,120 They're selling 5% diversifying. They're doing something like 159 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:21,280 that and the market is absorbing all of that energy building its 160 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,120 support. The volatility is coming out of 161 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,600 the asset. That's a really good sign, but 162 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:32,440 because what you want for the asset to mature is for for lots 163 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:36,200 of long term capital holders, the big corporations, the big 164 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:40,600 institutions to buy. You want the early Ogs that 165 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:44,240 bought Bitcoin for a dollar or five or $10 to sell some or as 166 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,680 much as they need to so they feel comfortable. 167 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,240 You want the volatility to decrease so the mega 168 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:54,040 institutions feel comfortable entering the space and size. 169 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:59,160 And the conundrum is, well, if the mega institutions going to 170 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:01,320 enter, if the volatility decreases, it's going to be 171 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,000 boring for a while. And because it's boring for a 172 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,400 while, people's adrenaline rush is going to drop. 173 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:09,720 And it's like they had this big high and now the adrenaline is 174 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,440 wearing off and they're a little bit bearish. 175 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:17,680 But this is just a growing stage or, you know, natural for the 176 00:09:17,680 --> 00:09:21,960 life cycle of an asset that's Montana that's monetizing like 177 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:23,840 this. Now, although there is a pretty 178 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,680 consistent trend that shows October is the time for 179 00:09:26,680 --> 00:09:29,480 Bitcoin's price to RIP, there are some outliers that egg the 180 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:33,880 House of that theory. In 2011, September cratered -38% 181 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,320 and October didn't fix it. Still red. 182 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,080 The moral of the story? Seasonality is a tendency, but 183 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,560 it's not a guarantee. So maybe we allocate just a 184 00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:44,160 little bit heavier in October for you. 185 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,320 DCA errs. Manage your risk, of course. 186 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,640 I mean, these charts aren't crystal balls, they're just 187 00:09:48,680 --> 00:09:51,160 pixels on a screen. And obviously we need to be on 188 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,760 the lookout for breaking upcoming or real news in 189 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:56,520 October. Bro, we're not allowed to give 190 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,200 financial advice. I mean, it's, it's your money. 191 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:03,000 I'm not a financial advisor and stuff, you know, do what you 192 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,400 want with your own money and disclaimer, disclaimer, 193 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:06,920 disclaimer. Anyway, the point is not 194 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:08,520 perfecting your trading strategy. 195 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,640 It's preparing for it. But how else can I prepare for 196 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:13,920 this Bitcoin RIP in October? That's already happening. 197 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,320 Well, do you want to go beyond stacking and actually create new 198 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,640 sats? SaaS mining makes hosted Bitcoin 199 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,400 mining straightforward. You own the rig and they host 200 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,240 and operate it in facilities powered by carbon free energy. 201 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,880 Your mined Bitcoin goes directly to your wallet. 202 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,840 If you understand the power costs and risks, you can start 203 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,040 with a single machine and scale as you learn. 204 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:34,880 And if you go to saasmining.com and put the promo code Simply 205 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,520 Bitcoin, you'll get $100 off your first rig. 206 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,440 Book a call with one of their expert team members and start 207 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:44,080 mining today at SAS mining.com. In closing, September tends to 208 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:47,800 test conviction, whereas October tends to reward preparation. 209 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,920 If history rhymes, the best time to buy isn't mid-october. 210 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,360 It's before, like now, like yesterday. 211 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:58,360 But beyond all that, and all the knots and core battle aside, 212 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:01,640 it's always a good time to crack open your laptop and study 213 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:03,520 Bitcoin. And remember, historical 214 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:05,680 patterns do not equal guarantees. 215 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:07,760 And this is not financial advice. 216 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:09,960 I don't even know how to give financial advice. 217 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:16,600 I'm not a financial advisor. I'm just a man making videos in 218 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,560 my bedroom. I barely know what money is. 219 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,560 Thank you so much for watching. If you like this video, you like 220 00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:25,080 what you see, you want to see more, make sure you hit that 221 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,320 like button below or you subscribe to the Simply Bitcoin 222 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,000 channel for more content like this. 223 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:30,800 We're coming out with it every single day of the week. 224 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,480 Also, don't forget to hit that notification bell. 225 00:11:33,560 --> 00:11:35,840 I'm Oceans. This is beyond Bitcoin. 226 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:36,760 Until next time.