September is historically the worst month for Bitcoin.
Prices fall like leaves in fall, but then October shows up like a
laughing pumpkin on a theme park ride.
Today we're putting red September and October on the
same timeline with receipts, and I'll show you why.
History says that now might be the best time to go trick or
treating for some Bitcoin, and no one is talking about it.
OK, some people are talking about it.
It's a quick. Check on crypto.
Prices. As we.
Begin the so-called months of. October October with strong.
Gains pretty much it's all that anyone talks about I'm oceans.
This is beyond Bitcoin. Grab your pumpkin spice latte
and let's dive into October. From 2011 to 2024, data shows
that while May can still be decent, things start to cool off
more noticeably in the summer. August, and particularly
September, are Bitcoin's weakest months on average, posting
slightly negative returns. With traders on holiday and
market activity dipping, prices can move sideways or even down
for a bit. This mirrors the September
effect in U.S. stocks, where September has been, on average
the worst performing month for equities.
Many believe it's due to investors returning from summer
vacation to realize gains or harvest losses before the year
ends. Cue the Green Day reference.
Wake me up when September ends. Just like the pleasant voice
announcer and robotic people explain, September is
historically the worst month for Bitcoin.
What is this mustache by the way?
So I kept seeing all this stuff about October on Twitter.
X or X and decided to make a video about it.
Maybe think of a question. So in October Bitcoin is
supposed to RIP right? So the question I had was what
time in October would it be better to buy?
That sent me down a rabbit hole with some data that I did not
expect. Did you know that from 2010 to
2024, September finished higher than it started in seven out of
15 years? That's 46.7%.
And the median September return is -3.5%.
The worst of it was in 2011. That was -38%.
Meanwhile, this reoccurring slump gives rise to the expected
rise that October is all about. In fact, from 2010 to 2024,
October finished higher 11 out of 15 years.
That's 73%. The median October return is
+15.4%. And the big one in 2010 was 200.
And 16% in 2017 it was 46.9% and in 2021 it was 27.4%.
All positive. So that told me something.
Maybe I should buy a bunch of Bitcoin in September and reap
the gains in October. You never sell bro.
Kind of Bitcoin Max or you. But this led me to an even
bigger question. Why?
Why is the Bitcoin price consistent with this rule set
76% of the time since its inception?
ChatGPT Why pattern? ChatGPT gave me several possible
reasons. 1 seasonality September is soft for risk assets.
Funds return from summer and rebalance, trimming high beta
exposure. Bitcoin rides that wave, and
this seems pretty intuitive, but I didn't consider the greater
macro framework before. What's funny about this is that
it's a trend that continues for several years prior to Bitcoin,
and it's sort of naturally evolved into the state.
Guess that's why they say. Sell in May and go away.
Sell in May and stay away. How about I?
Just go eat some hay. I can make things out of clay
and lay by the Bay. I just may.
I wonder if there's a correlation between the Bitcoin
price and the annual grade school schedules on any given
month. Like spring break would be a
time for selling and Thanksgiving break would be a
time for buying. Maybe I should make a video
about that. It's not a video, leave it
alone. Second on the list of the Chachi
PT reasons. Positioning and expiry. end of
September. Futures and options expire,
positions close, roles happen, risk gets tidied.
October opens up with cleaner slates and fresh buy programs.
Many of bitcoins listed derivatives, especially on the
CME, have monthly expirations on the last Friday of the month.
September is also a quarterly month.
March, June, September, December, they're all quarterly
months. So traders will typically
offset, hold to expiry and roll over till the next quarter.
In short, financially speaking, late September is a busy reset
point. Monthly plus quarterly contracts
expire on the last Friday. Positions get closed, rolled
over, and hedges unwind. Makes sense.
Me neither #3 from ChatGPT. Tax and accounting loss
harvesting and book cleaning ahead of Q4 can push Bitcoin
lower in late September. I'm guessing a lot of you out
there know what this means, so I'm just going to nod my head
like I also do #4 on Chat GPT's list macro calendar.
The new US fiscal year starts October 1st.
Budget headlines, central bank meetings, elevated uncertainty
de risk into September. Relief bids in early October.
Wait a second. So for the US federal
government, the fiscal year starts in October.
Maybe that's why we're always in discussions about the government
shutting down in October. Why does that happen?
ChatGPT? Congress moved the federal
fiscal year start to October 1st in the 1970s to give itself more
time to run the new formal budget process before the year
begins. Oh wow, I didn't know that.
Number 5 catalyst clustering. Wonderful alliteration.
Big upside headlines have repeatedly landed in October.
For example, Paypal's crypto rollout in October 2020, the
first US Bitcoin ETF launch in October 2021.
This is just a demonstration about how top down policies make
ripples throughout time. You don't release the summer
blockbuster in early February. You release it in July or August
or June. You know the summer months.
This is like a positive feedback loop.
Institutions capitalize on the idea that October is an up
month. Number six from ChatGPT the
means equal the flow of money read September to October is now
a thing. Traders pre sell into late
August, September, then re risk in October.
Congratulations U.S. financial apparatus, you've built a
season. Careful, that's Q. 4 Optimism
we'll. Fall back.
Under market. Efficiently.
If you remember one thing, remember this contrast.
September ends lower more often than not, and October ends
higher most of the time and usually by a lot.
Now strategies. Michael Saylor has a few
thoughts on this subject, but right before that, I want to
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terms. You know the why Bitcoin has
been consolidating and you know building it, you know, support
in the teens right now is because you've got $2.3 trillion
of Bitcoin that is unbanked. And so you've got a lot of
people that own a lot of Bitcoin, but they can't get a
loan against it. And because they can't get a
loan against it, the only you know, at the point that you all
of a sudden find yourself Bitcoin rich but Fiat poor, you
don't have a lot of dollars. We have a lot of Bitcoin and you
can't borrow against it. Then you think I have to go sell
it. So I think Bitcoins right now,
it's like this mag 7 startup where all the sudden all the
employees got insanely rich on penny stock options, but they
can't borrow against them, so they have to sell them.
And so they're selling. And then people are saying,
well, why are those employees selling the stock?
Is that a vote of not confidence, you know, in the
company? And the answer is no.
It's just they have kids to go to college.
They want to buy a house, right? They they want to live
comfortably. They want to do something for
their parents, and so right now I think that the selling is owed
crypto O GS that have had a lot of money for a long time.
They're selling 5% diversifying. They're doing something like
that and the market is absorbing all of that energy building its
support. The volatility is coming out of
the asset. That's a really good sign, but
because what you want for the asset to mature is for for lots
of long term capital holders, the big corporations, the big
institutions to buy. You want the early Ogs that
bought Bitcoin for a dollar or five or $10 to sell some or as
much as they need to so they feel comfortable.
You want the volatility to decrease so the mega
institutions feel comfortable entering the space and size.
And the conundrum is, well, if the mega institutions going to
enter, if the volatility decreases, it's going to be
boring for a while. And because it's boring for a
while, people's adrenaline rush is going to drop.
And it's like they had this big high and now the adrenaline is
wearing off and they're a little bit bearish.
But this is just a growing stage or, you know, natural for the
life cycle of an asset that's Montana that's monetizing like
this. Now, although there is a pretty
consistent trend that shows October is the time for
Bitcoin's price to RIP, there are some outliers that egg the
House of that theory. In 2011, September cratered -38%
and October didn't fix it. Still red.
The moral of the story? Seasonality is a tendency, but
it's not a guarantee. So maybe we allocate just a
little bit heavier in October for you.
DCA errs. Manage your risk, of course.
I mean, these charts aren't crystal balls, they're just
pixels on a screen. And obviously we need to be on
the lookout for breaking upcoming or real news in
October. Bro, we're not allowed to give
financial advice. I mean, it's, it's your money.
I'm not a financial advisor and stuff, you know, do what you
want with your own money and disclaimer, disclaimer,
disclaimer. Anyway, the point is not
perfecting your trading strategy.
It's preparing for it. But how else can I prepare for
this Bitcoin RIP in October? That's already happening.
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mining today at SAS mining.com. In closing, September tends to
test conviction, whereas October tends to reward preparation.
If history rhymes, the best time to buy isn't mid-october.
It's before, like now, like yesterday.
But beyond all that, and all the knots and core battle aside,
it's always a good time to crack open your laptop and study
Bitcoin. And remember, historical
patterns do not equal guarantees.
And this is not financial advice.
I don't even know how to give financial advice.
I'm not a financial advisor. I'm just a man making videos in
my bedroom. I barely know what money is.
Thank you so much for watching. If you like this video, you like
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I'm Oceans. This is beyond Bitcoin.
Until next time.