1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,480 Hello everybody. Welcome to another episode of 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:06,200 Simply Bitcoin IRL. Today we have a very special 3 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:08,080 guest. We have Fred Krueger. 4 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:11,560 But before we bring them up on stage, I do want to give a shout 5 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,040 out to the Bitcoin company that makes this show possible. 6 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:16,960 Of course I'm talking about Bitcoin. 7 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:19,280 Well, it's the best place to build your Bitcoin stack. 8 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,200 Help us make self custody by default. 9 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:25,400 The standard in the US only brought to you by Bitcoin. 10 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,920 Well, that's right, it's the first Bitcoin only on ramp in 11 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:33,240 the United States of America. That is self custody by default. 12 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,280 That's right, you can't buy Bitcoin on Bitcoin. 13 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:36,920 Well, unless you take self custody. 14 00:00:37,160 --> 00:00:40,600 And that perfectly aligns with the simply Bitcoin ethos. 15 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,200 So what are you waiting for? Visit bitcoinwell.com today. 16 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,080 All right, ladies and gentlemen, no more delay. 17 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:49,320 I do want to bring Fred up on stage. 18 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:55,160 Fred, you have a quite, a very, very impressive CV. 19 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,800 You have a bachelor's from Cornell University in in 20 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:02,600 mathematics, and you have a PhD from Stanford and Operations 21 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:07,280 Research and statistics. So that's quite impressive. 22 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,720 How are you? And first of all, not only how 23 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:16,120 are you very, very great stuff and content that you're dropping 24 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:19,680 on Twitter, very, very valuable. Your account, your account grew 25 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:23,520 extremely quickly, which is not that hard that sorry, it's it's 26 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,080 not that easy to do. So obviously people are finding 27 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,640 value in your work and what you're contributing to the 28 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:31,920 community. Thanks a lot, Nico. 29 00:01:31,960 --> 00:01:34,080 I appreciate it. Yeah. 30 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:38,360 So, so you know, this has been a a been a wild ride. 31 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,000 You you were not on my radar for a while, were you? 32 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,440 Were you looking at Bitcoin Twitter? 33 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,480 Where, when, when did you decide to jump into the fray, so to 34 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:50,160 speak? Well, OK, so I was I've been in 35 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,920 Bitcoin for for quite some time, and I've been in crypto before 36 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:58,680 Bitcoin even for longer, right? But I I haven't been. 37 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:02,800 I really haven't seen any kind of need to be on Bitcoin Twitter 38 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:10,160 per Southeast until I think it was December 1st of last year, 39 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,720 so about 2 1/2 months from ago, three months ago, right. 40 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,640 So December, January, February, 3 months ago. 41 00:02:16,640 --> 00:02:18,560 So 90 days I've been on Bitcoin Twitter. 42 00:02:18,920 --> 00:02:22,920 That's it. And the only reason I decided to 43 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:26,520 get on Bitcoin Twitter is that I kind of felt like I had a unique 44 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:31,400 point of view about this, you know, Bitcoin ETF. 45 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:34,320 It kind of needed to be kind of sad. 46 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:38,560 And so I sort of hopped on really just to talk about the 47 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:40,960 Bitcoin ETF, that that was the only thing I was sort of 48 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:45,080 interested in talking about. Now I've sort of talked a little 49 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,160 bit about a few other things, but I'm still mainly interested 50 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:52,840 in kind of this ETF story and how it's going to, you know, 51 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:59,840 really accelerate the the price adoption of Bitcoin that you 52 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:01,720 know, the adoption of Bitcoin is a savings tool. 53 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:04,360 Does that make sense? Yes, it absolutely makes sense. 54 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:05,800 But let's talk about that, right. 55 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,760 So for audience, you know it, it definitely, etcetera. 56 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:14,960 And again, from my perspective, right, Fred, I'm the 1/3 of my 57 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:19,560 life has been in Bitcoin, right? It's my, it's 8th year. 58 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,000 You know, I'm 30 years old, basically 30 years old, 59 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,280 literally 1/3 of my life. This is my career. 60 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:29,080 This is what I know. So, you know, when I've ever had 61 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:32,720 Foss or Lavish or Lapard, I always say the same thing. 62 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,240 They're incredible guys, incredibly smart. 63 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:37,480 I always told them the same thing. 64 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:39,440 Caitlyn Long. I always told them the same 65 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:42,000 thing. I'm like, look, I I I learned 66 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,680 Bitcoin 1st and then I learned traditional finance second, 67 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,800 right? So like looking backwards. 68 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,880 And I I started in, I well, I have. 69 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:54,800 I've sort of three. There's sort of three parts to 70 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,200 me. Like part of me is, is a tech 71 00:03:57,200 --> 00:03:57,880 person. Right. 72 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:02,040 So I'm I have a PhD you know and and and really kind of three 73 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:03,840 subjects. But it was this way. 74 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:06,880 I have Donald Knuth from computer science. 75 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,520 I don't know if you've ever ever done any sort of theoretical 76 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,880 computer science but you probably run across the book The 77 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:17,040 Art of Computer Programming that was that was Donald Knuth who 78 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,480 was on my thesis advisor and then Tom Cover in the stats 79 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:24,200 department and Curtis Eves in the operations research 80 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:27,760 department. So, yeah, all all I did and then 81 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,840 I did a, you know, a thesis and that was just pure math, right. 82 00:04:30,840 --> 00:04:32,760 I I just say it's pure math because it is. 83 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,360 It was just, you know, pretty hardcore math. 84 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,960 Then I went to work on Wall Street and you know, I was on 85 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,880 Wall Street for six years as a prop trader at Salomon Brothers. 86 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:47,280 And so, and that's a long time by the way, you know, like 87 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,280 spending six years kind of managing prop money on an 88 00:04:50,280 --> 00:04:52,760 arbitrage desk that'll burn you out pretty quick. 89 00:04:53,280 --> 00:04:56,040 I can imagine, I can imagine that in that in that type of 90 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,480 environment. So you know, you, you, you, you 91 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:00,720 have this very impressive background, right? 92 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,320 You know, educational, academic background. 93 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:08,440 Then I then I spent ten years or 20 years in tech and I've I'm 94 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:11,680 probably the most serial entrepreneurial ever. 95 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:16,960 Me in that I've I've I've have over 10 exits and that's 96 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:18,960 completely non crypto related right. 97 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:24,600 And I've all these exits are, you know, me, me at the company 98 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:28,920 and and an exit for me is something where you you sell for 99 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:34,520 more than $10 million, right. And my total kind of exit is 100 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:38,000 $500 million. So I've sold $500 million worth 101 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,960 of companies and you know you can obviously I had some 102 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:44,360 investors in BCS and so on in this, but you know I made a lot 103 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,280 of money in, I made a lot of money in finance, I've made a 104 00:05:47,280 --> 00:05:50,920 lot of money in tech and I've made crypto, right. 105 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:54,520 So, so I that's kind of my background. 106 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:58,800 So I have I'm in a position where I can kind of look at 107 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:03,480 stuff and I saw some stuff that other people didn't see, people 108 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:07,200 like James Lavish who I like James's content a lot. 109 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,440 Right. And and Greg Foss they're more 110 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:16,040 focused on sort of the economic sort of like the the US debt 111 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,320 situation is is sort of unsustainable, right. 112 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:22,640 That's their thing. I'm not so much of A macro type 113 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:24,880 guy. I'm not not, not to say that I 114 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,200 don't like their stuff, but I just don't find it very useful 115 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,840 for trading to focus on those things. 116 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:34,480 But I the one thing I did focus on immediately was the CTF, 117 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,000 right? And I was just like, when I saw 118 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:42,200 the CTF come out, I was just sort of like, why aren't why 119 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:44,880 isn't everybody just screaming about this thing? 120 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:48,560 Because this is by far the biggest thing I've ever seen in 121 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:49,440 Bitcoin. Right. 122 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:53,200 And I just started saying guys like you don't understand, like 123 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:55,920 everything else you're saying doesn't matter. 124 00:06:55,920 --> 00:07:00,200 This is going to be this is 10X whatever you, you, whatever you, 125 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:02,560 whatever you're talking about. Right. 126 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:09,560 So you know, you know I've, I've, I've, I've sort of ruffled 127 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:11,960 a few feathers along the way because you know some people 128 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:14,280 have been like well Fred you know it's not that interest. 129 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:19,320 There's other more interesting things like Nost or Fetty Mint 130 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,800 or things like that, whatever. And my my point is, look, those 131 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:26,800 are interesting intellectual ideas, but they have about that 132 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:29,280 much, they're going to have that much of an impact on the price 133 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:34,080 of Bitcoin and this ETF when it happens. 134 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,360 I said this in December. I said just mark my words, this 135 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:40,600 is going to be, this is this is the main event that you guys are 136 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:44,360 going to see, right? And you know, then the ETF came 137 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:49,280 out and it looked like a failure to some people initially, right 138 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,160 in the month of January, it looked kind of negative, right? 139 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:57,440 Like the, you know, GBTC was selling and then, you know, the 140 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:00,440 other, the other ones were barely keeping up with GBTC 141 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,200 selling. And it, you know, if you wanted 142 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,960 to say the glass was half empty, you could make the case the 143 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,000 glass was half empty. But I kept on saying I'd be like 144 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:13,400 this is crazy. I mean like this is going to be 145 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:17,840 this is unbelievable like this amount of the amount of demand 146 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:19,080 that we're seeing from Wall Street. 147 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:23,920 And so I I was very, very positive during that period and 148 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:27,560 I remain you know just obviously massively bullish on this whole 149 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,400 thing right now. And I just think you can't be, 150 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:35,039 you can't be bullish enough on this these ETFs you just, it's 151 00:08:35,039 --> 00:08:37,880 just and it's just sort of like it's math, it's finance and it's 152 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:44,600 just like and it's finally we have a vehicle where people can 153 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:46,840 invest in this stuff. That's it. 154 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:51,880 That's the bottom line. So OK, it's the bottom line and 155 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:54,640 I'm, I'm glad that you gave me that backgrounds, you know, 156 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:59,000 tech, Wall Street, academia, you know, successful 10 exits, you 157 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:02,680 said. And what got you interested is 158 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:05,120 the ETFs. Right. 159 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:09,680 So and could you give a little bit of like a kind of like a 160 00:09:09,680 --> 00:09:14,080 crash course elevator pitch so to speak to our audience, Our 161 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:17,320 audience is mostly, you know, bitcoiners, self custody. 162 00:09:17,680 --> 00:09:20,120 You know that's that's the people who watch this show. 163 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:22,960 Why and? Me too. 164 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:24,760 I'm a self custody Bitcoin, right? 165 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:28,000 So. Yeah, why was the Bitcoin what, 166 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:33,280 what makes the Bitcoin ETF this major catalyst to take Bitcoin 167 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:36,280 to the next level price wise and from your perspective? 168 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:39,800 OK, So what drives Bitcoin price higher? 169 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,920 It's new money coming into the ecosystem, right? 170 00:09:43,680 --> 00:09:49,880 And you know it's new people buying into sort of the idea 171 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,080 virus that Bitcoin is a is a good place to save your money. 172 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:58,720 But if you look back into, you know, 2017 time frame, that 173 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:04,560 cycle or the 2021 cycle, it wasn't sort of mainstream people 174 00:10:04,560 --> 00:10:08,080 putting money into their four O1 KS that was buying into Bitcoin. 175 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,920 Why? Because those people couldn't 176 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,800 really invest very easily. They had to transfer money out. 177 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:17,640 They had to put it into Coinbase effectively, really Coinbase in 178 00:10:17,680 --> 00:10:22,960 the US and then they had to buy Bitcoin with that and hold it in 179 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:28,080 Coinbase. Now some of them like did what 180 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,800 you did and what I did, which is, you know, self custody, your 181 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:35,080 Bitcoin, you have to learn all about self custody and all that. 182 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:37,840 And it it's a great thing. Look, self custody is a 183 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:42,080 fantastic thing, but it's a complicated thing and in 184 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:47,160 adoption of new technologies, any barrier that you put in 185 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:52,280 front of people really, really will stop that spread that 186 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:54,920 adoption. So it's amazing to me that 187 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:58,840 Bitcoin has has gotten to where it has without something like 188 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:02,000 the ETF. But now when you take the ETF, 189 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:07,560 all of a sudden you have 100 million plus Americans who have 190 00:11:07,560 --> 00:11:10,840 money in their you know, Charles Schwab or Merrill Lynch. 191 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:15,040 Merrill Lynch made not really a great example, but let's say 192 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,200 Charles Schwab or Fidelity accounts, right? 193 00:11:17,680 --> 00:11:23,240 And with just a few clicks you now have exposure to Bitcoin and 194 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:28,000 contrast that with the same person going to buy Bitcoin on 195 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,560 Coinbase. Much more difficult and even 196 00:11:30,560 --> 00:11:35,560 more difficult, you know, signing up for a, you know, self 197 00:11:35,560 --> 00:11:41,680 custody, single sig or multi sig platform like Casa or untrained. 198 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:48,080 So you have, it's really a maybe 100 times more less barriers to 199 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,240 entry. And when you cut these barriers 200 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:55,800 to entry down that much and you've just tapped into 201 00:11:56,680 --> 00:11:59,680 effectively the largest capital market in the world. 202 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,480 You don't have to be a genius to realize that that's going to, 203 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,360 that's just going to move the market just tremendously. 204 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,040 And I I think we're just in the very beginning of that right 205 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:13,040 now, so. And and and and and let's talk 206 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,800 about that right because you've had you know a couple tweets, 207 00:12:17,560 --> 00:12:23,520 you know in the recent, the recent past, one of the one of 208 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,240 the latest I'm reading is a 1 billion a day and new demand 209 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:30,600 should create 100 billion and new market cap daily that's 210 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:36,720 enough to move the price A to 117 K in 10 trading sessions. 211 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,360 So what did you mean by that? Well, OK, so there's this. 212 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:47,760 There's this concept that that people refer to as a multiplier 213 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:51,640 effect, right. So what that is, is, let's just 214 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:56,440 say there's a billion dollars that comes into the Bitcoin 215 00:12:56,440 --> 00:13:00,240 market over a period of time, a short, relatively short period 216 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,160 of time. How much does that move the 217 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:05,880 price by? Well, it doesn't move the price. 218 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,720 It doesn't move the market cap up exactly 1 billion because 219 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,280 it's not like there's people are just saying, oh, I'll just 220 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:14,360 calmly sell you the exact 1 billion at the current price. 221 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:17,560 No, you're going to have to buy up, get that Bitcoin from 222 00:13:17,560 --> 00:13:20,800 somebody, right? And there's not an infinite 223 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:22,920 amount of Bitcoin that's on these exchanges. 224 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:28,160 There's about 1.8 million Bitcoin that's sitting on all of 225 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,320 the exchanges and all of that is not even for sale, right. 226 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,600 So you're looking at you know hundreds of thousands of coins 227 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,720 that are really kind of actively for sale at any at any point in 228 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:42,280 time. And if you if you look at sort 229 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:46,800 of 10,000 Bitcoin a day or more, which is kind of where the 230 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:51,560 demand is right now from these funds, they're just, I mean this 231 00:13:51,560 --> 00:13:55,840 thing can literally eat through the entire supply of Bitcoin and 232 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,440 all the exchanges in a matter of like 100 days at this rate. 233 00:13:59,960 --> 00:14:05,600 So the, to use that exact analogy, you have a billion 234 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:07,400 dollars coming in in a day, right. 235 00:14:07,560 --> 00:14:10,160 That's Adam Back just posted this this thing which he's 236 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:12,240 right. There's been about a billion 237 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:15,520 dollars a day of of kind of raw demand from Wall Street coming 238 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,040 in. But then there's been these 239 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:23,240 liquidations of GBTC from these bankruptcies, right, like FTX 240 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:29,600 and you know Genesis in particular, right. 241 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:32,560 And so there's this, there's been still a lot of selling. 242 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,960 So it's still muted relative to what it's going to be in say a 243 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:38,560 month once we've worked through all those numbers. 244 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:43,000 And if you look at $1 billion coming in, that has the impact 245 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:48,200 of raising the the market cap of Bitcoin by $100 billion. 246 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:52,560 So it's 100 X multiplier. Bank of America has estimated 247 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:56,880 that this multiplier is 118. Other people have said it may be 248 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:00,120 even as high as 200, but let's just say it's 100, right? 249 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:05,200 Well, that means you're going to increase the market cap by $100 250 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:07,360 billion. Well the the entire market cap 251 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,480 of Bitcoin is $1.3 trillion right now. 252 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,400 So it's a 7% increase in one day, right. 253 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:18,720 So you do that for 10 days and you're going to double the the 254 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,800 effectively or attempt rating sessions you you're more or less 255 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:24,480 double the the price of Bitcoin. Gotcha. 256 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:25,080 Gotcha. So. 257 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,240 Pretty amazing. So and OK, and and and I. 258 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:34,200 Mean you move from 67 to 100,110 thousand whatever the number is. 259 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:36,960 Gotcha. So and and let's talk about that 260 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,760 for a SEC. So like because I I think a lot 261 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:45,880 of people, you know, I think they misunderestimated how much 262 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:48,640 the ETF was going to influence it, right? 263 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:53,480 Never in Bitcoin's history have we hit an all time high before 264 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:55,760 the halving, right. That's never happened before. 265 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,480 You're basically saying that there's all this capital kind of 266 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,640 waiting on the sidelines. BlackRock is a fan. 267 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:07,240 Fidelity is a fan. Blackrock's holdings are about 268 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:09,160 to surpass Michael Sailor's holdings. 269 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,520 They're very, very close. I think the last time I checked, 270 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:15,960 BlackRock had 183,000 Bitcoin. Michael Sailor has 193,000. 271 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:18,080 Tomorrow they will they, will they. 272 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:20,960 Will increase they will. They will surpass it. 273 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,560 So where do we go from here? You know, where, where do you 274 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,120 see Bitcoin at the end of the year? 275 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,200 What's what's going to happen? And and and not to mention, I 276 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,400 kind of want to talk about the supply shock a little bit, 277 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:34,120 right. So the halving is right around 278 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,680 the corner. You know, last time I was 279 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,560 checking the figures, there's estimated to be about 10,000 280 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:43,120 Bitcoin being bought on the market every single day. 281 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:47,200 Only 900 are being mined in about a month or so month and 282 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:51,920 change, you know it's going to be 450 Bitcoin being mined. 283 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,120 So this is, you know, I don't think, I don't, I don't think 284 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:59,440 anything like this has ever happened before in the history 285 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,120 of financial markets. Would it be correct to say 286 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:06,520 something like that? No, I think, I mean, honestly, 287 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:08,480 you're going to underestimate the impact. 288 00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:12,839 You can, you can say all those things and you're still 289 00:17:12,839 --> 00:17:16,280 underestimating it, right? Because there's so many other 290 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:18,079 things that are going. So the only thing you 291 00:17:18,079 --> 00:17:21,760 potentially are overestimating is the impact of the happening, 292 00:17:21,839 --> 00:17:24,520 right. Because the happening is, you 293 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:26,560 know, as you said, it's the what is the impact? 294 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:30,960 The impact right now is, well, we know the right now and for 295 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:34,520 the rest of the next four years, there's going to be 450 Bitcoin 296 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,880 per day, right? Well, right now the demand for 297 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,640 Wall Street is 10,000 Bitcoin per day. 298 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:46,320 So it's 20 times the happening right now as Bitcoin price goes 299 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:50,400 up, it won't be 20 times this happening. 300 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:54,360 Let's say Bitcoin price double S well then it'll still be 10 301 00:17:54,360 --> 00:17:56,800 times the happening. It's still just an enormous 302 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,160 number, right? It'll just an enormous number. 303 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:02,920 Even if Bitcoin quadruples, we're still going to be five 304 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:04,600 times the impact of the happening. 305 00:18:05,120 --> 00:18:08,360 So I just actually don't think The Happening is going to make 306 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:13,120 any difference at all at this point relative to relative to 307 00:18:13,120 --> 00:18:16,080 what we're seeing these flows from these CTFS, they're just so 308 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:18,360 much bigger than anybody ever thought. 309 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,800 So I don't think the happening is that the having is that much, 310 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,160 that much of a big deal and I and I actually don't think it's 311 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:30,720 going to be a big deal from here on out. 312 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,560 So I I think we've seen the last of the cycles. 313 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,960 I think it's it's over. So you don't, you don't believe 314 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:42,120 2026 comes around, you know we're going to have that 80% 315 00:18:42,120 --> 00:18:46,280 drop that's done, that's done and dusted because of the ETFs? 316 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:53,040 Yeah, I don't think it's going to be a a 2026 one year drop 317 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,360 kind of like that. I think that's over, that 318 00:18:55,360 --> 00:18:58,600 narrative is over. It doesn't mean that we won't 319 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,200 potentially see a big drop some point, right. 320 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:05,320 But I don't think it's going to be confined to a year. 321 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:09,640 I don't think you can pinpoint it at exactly this happening 322 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:11,760 because I just don't think the having are going to be that 323 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,880 important relevant in the future. 324 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:17,160 It's not to say that we can't have a bear market for Bitcoin. 325 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,960 I do think we we could absolutely have a bear market 326 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:25,320 for Bitcoin because every single financial asset that has been 327 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,960 known to man so far has had their markets, whether it's the 328 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,760 US stock market, the Japanese stock market, the bond market. 329 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:37,440 Yeah every asset class has bear markets and they all get ahead 330 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:41,840 of themselves and they all, they all crash and then they they 331 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:46,120 can, they can recover. But you know something like the 332 00:19:46,120 --> 00:19:52,960 NASDAQ crash of in 2000 where it took till basically 2010 to 333 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:57,440 really come back, took a decade to get back to NASDAQ 5000, that 334 00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,840 would not surprise me down the road with Bitcoin. 335 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:03,240 I think we're so far away from that point where that would 336 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:07,400 happen. You know, it may happen once we 337 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:11,480 get to 1,000,000 Bitcoin and we have a crash and we go from 338 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:16,520 1,000,000 to 300,000 and we it takes five years to get back to 339 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,400 1,000,000 for example, right. I see that as possibility. 340 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,520 I just don't think there's regularity with the cycles. 341 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:28,880 This going to be is going to continue much beyond I I think 342 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:32,360 we're that's my opinion. Interesting, Interesting. 343 00:20:32,360 --> 00:20:37,480 Interesting. OK, so so no more, no more 344 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,880 cycles. The ETF, you know played a 345 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:45,240 played a big role in this. And then do you kind of there's 346 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,120 this other theory that's being kind of talked about a little 347 00:20:48,120 --> 00:20:55,240 bit which is this idea of kind of this left shifted bull run 348 00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:59,080 top in 2024. I think a lot of people you know 349 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:03,360 if the cycle theory is dead, we're are anticipating you know 350 00:21:03,360 --> 00:21:08,000 a cycle top in 2025. You're making the case that you 351 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,440 know the that that theory is basically dead. 352 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:16,160 So are are you seeing a top potential top in 2024? 353 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:21,000 No, no, not at all. OK. 354 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:25,000 No, I think look this is I think we're on the beginning part. 355 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,360 I mean this is obviously this is just you know pure speculation 356 00:21:28,360 --> 00:21:31,160 as a traitor. But my view is look, I think we 357 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:36,600 are on the beginning part of of quite a big bull run in Bitcoin. 358 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:43,080 And you know I would, I would an analogous thing would be like 359 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:47,200 the price of Facebook from the IP Facebook IPO till now, right. 360 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,360 We've got this huge, you know unless I think it'll outperform 361 00:21:50,360 --> 00:21:54,080 that, but I'm just saying I think I think we're on the verge 362 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,640 of something quite big and quite long. 363 00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:02,080 And I do think we may have some bear markets and in Bitcoin and 364 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,840 they could be also big and long. But I think we're think of this 365 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:09,520 as sort of the IPO of Bitcoin. This is like Bitcoin finally 366 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:14,680 coming to the financial markets. And you know, it's rare that a 367 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:19,560 company IPOs does great and then tanks a year later that that's 368 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,640 usually not what happens. If they do really well, they 369 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,920 usually continue and they continue to do well for a 370 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,320 decade. And that's kind of what I think 371 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,640 for Bitcoin. I think it's going to be a great 372 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:33,240 decade for Bitcoin, you know, or at least a great five years for 373 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,640 Bitcoin, great 5-6 years. And you know, I think we're at a 374 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,720 very relatively low price of Bitcoin relative to where I 375 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,480 think it's going to go. So I think it's got a lot of 376 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:48,520 room to the future, to upside and I think people should not be 377 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:50,640 looking to sell Bitcoin at all right now. 378 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,760 This is not something that that you should be. 379 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:54,960 You shouldn't be looking to trade it. 380 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:56,440 You shouldn't be looking to sell it. 381 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,320 You should absolutely. If you don't have it, you should 382 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,680 be looking to buy it right now, right here. 383 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,920 But I think you know, for you, for me, for most of the people 384 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,160 listening to your podcast, I would say there's nothing to do 385 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:13,720 at all in 2024, period. Nothing or 2025. 386 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:18,320 I would just, you know, you just hang tight, entertain yourself 387 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:24,360 with crypto Twitter, you know, but there's there's no trading 388 00:23:24,360 --> 00:23:27,200 of this thing right now. This is, this is something that 389 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,760 we have seen, we are seeing. This is really the catalyst 390 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,920 you've been waiting for your entire Bitcoin life, right, 391 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,360 right here. It's just it doesn't get it and 392 00:23:38,360 --> 00:23:40,040 there's not going to be a next one. 393 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,080 This is it. This is this is the main event 394 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,000 right now, right? Black Rock doesn't get any 395 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,080 bigger than Black Rock, right? Black Rock's the largest asset 396 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,720 manager on the planet. There's there's nothing bigger 397 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,680 than Black Rock. This is the ultimate boss in the 398 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,960 video game. Gotcha. 399 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:57,920 Gotcha. OK. 400 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:02,120 So no more cycles. This is the the catalyst. 401 00:24:02,360 --> 00:24:06,720 What would you say to people that feel they're late to the 402 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,000 party? Is there still potential upside? 403 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,240 You know, there's this theory of diminishing returns. 404 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:17,520 Do you still think that there is major opportunity here for, you 405 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,320 know, the investors? Yeah, I I. 406 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,640 I think we're at, if I had to put where we are relative to 407 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:29,000 where we're going, I think we're on the road to going to 10 or 408 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,600 $20 million per Bitcoin. You know what's? 409 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,520 What's the timeline there? Yeah. 410 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,160 So I would say the timeline on that's a couple decades, right? 411 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,040 You know, a couple decades for for us to get to those kind of 412 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,480 prices. But you know, it wouldn't 413 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,320 surprise me if we could get to 1,000,000 within a decade, 414 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,080 right? Now we couldn't get to 1,000,000 415 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:57,600 in two years, right. But if I, if if you told me, 416 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:00,880 Fred, you're going to have to hold your Bitcoin for a decade 417 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,320 and you're going to get out on $1,000,000 per coin, I'd say 418 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,440 wow, what, what's a decade? I'll wait a decade. 419 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,800 No problem. You know, and you know I'm a 420 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,520 little older than you, so you know, I'm I've, I've held assets 421 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:17,080 for a decade, right. I've held gold bars for three 422 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,520 decades, you know, and they haven't done bad. 423 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,720 You know they've gone up 10X in in three decades by gold. 424 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,600 So I'm I'm prepared to hold Bitcoin for a decade. 425 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,920 It's not a problem. And if I think it's going to a 426 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:35,400 million, I you know, I I don't want to sell it at 300,000 or 427 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,400 200,000. I want to wait until it gets to 428 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:43,000 1,000,000. So I think that's sort of your, 429 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,240 the intermediate target. The target that you really need 430 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,760 to focus on is 1,000,000, right? I really think we're going to 431 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:55,640 get to Bitcoin 1,000,000. I I I don't have, I mean I would 432 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,360 say a 99% probability that we get there. 433 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,200 You know, how long does it take? I don't think it's going to take 434 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:02,880 much more than 10 years to get there. 435 00:26:03,360 --> 00:26:07,840 So I think that's an enormous opportunity from here with 436 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,600 Bitcoin at, you know, 67,000, right? 437 00:26:11,120 --> 00:26:13,680 I mean, nothing else is going to get you there. 438 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,080 You know, you buy a house, I don't know where you live. 439 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,400 Where do you live, Nico, what, what general area of the of the 440 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,240 university you live in? Miami, Miami, OK. 441 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:31,000 I don't think a Miami condo is going to go up, you know, 10X in 442 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:37,280 in the space of a decade. It might go up 2X, right, but 443 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,600 it's not going to go up 10X. So I think you have to look at 444 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,680 it over, let's say, a decade from here. 445 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,000 I think I think Bitcoin's going to be your best performing asset 446 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:51,080 over the next decade. So if you buy it right here, 447 00:26:51,360 --> 00:26:55,400 right here today, so you don't need to have owned it early or 448 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:59,080 you don't need to have gotten in early, right here is a great 449 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:03,920 time to buy in my opinion. And and now the question is how 450 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,480 much of your net worth do you put in that, right. 451 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:12,400 And I would say, you know, I would do your own research and 452 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,920 figure out, you know what you think and you know relative to 453 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:19,480 your comfort zone and stuff. But you know, I would not. 454 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,400 I think that if you put 1%, that's not the right number, 455 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:28,000 right? Because you don't have, you 456 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:32,400 don't have ideas of you don't have 99 ideas that are 457 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,920 equivalent to Bitcoin. At least I don't, right. 458 00:27:36,360 --> 00:27:39,480 You know, you might maybe think NVIDIA is going to be a great 459 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,680 buy. Maybe maybe you think Miami real 460 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:42,520 estate is going to be a good buy. 461 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,680 I don't know. But if I had to put a portfolio 462 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:53,320 together and I'm going to put, you know, 5% in Bitcoin and 95% 463 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:57,280 in Miami real estate and energy stocks, I think there's 464 00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,520 something wrong with that portfolio construction. 465 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:04,440 I mean if I knew what Bitcoin was going to do, I I would move 466 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:08,560 those things around pretty much the exact opposite, you know, So 467 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:13,840 I I just think that people are under invested in this asset and 468 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:19,120 you know, I you can't talk people into getting to what they 469 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,600 have outside of their comfort zone. 470 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:26,160 But you know, I I do think that the more you own, the better of 471 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,080 this thing. And especially if you're young, 472 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:35,520 you know, like, you know, somebody your age should own, I 473 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:39,200 would say the majority of their, their net worth should be in 474 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,440 Bitcoin, in my opinion. You know, if I was, if I was 475 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:46,520 your age, I'd pretty much be 100% in Bitcoin and you probably 476 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,200 are 100% in Bitcoin. Yeah, I mean. 477 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,120 I've been 100% for eight years now. 478 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:52,600 There you. Go. 479 00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,160 So all I'm saying is I agree with your allocation, right. 480 00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,520 So that that's what I would have done. 481 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,800 You know, now when you get to be my age, you kind of you're like, 482 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:09,200 you know you you've got more dependencies and you know you 483 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,560 don't need, you don't need to grow the money that much, right. 484 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:14,680 Yeah. You know, it's it's all a 485 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:20,480 personal thing, but but I still think that, you know, when I see 486 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:24,960 people saying talking about 10% allocation, I'm like, OK, 10%'s 487 00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,320 OK if you absolutely don't understand Bitcoin, but if you 488 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:32,200 understand Bitcoin, why? Why would you be doing 10% of 489 00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,360 your portfolio in Bitcoin? Could you could? 490 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,280 You explain it real quick. Like, what do you mean? 491 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,240 So like if if someone told you again, they didn't understand 492 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:41,760 Bitcoin. They didn't come from your 493 00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:43,920 background. It was just, but it's just like 494 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,680 I, I I'm gonna put 10% in it and and you know, and then you'd be 495 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,640 like, OK, but you don't understand Bitcoin. 496 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,120 They'd say, OK, explain it to me. 497 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:52,000 Pitch it to me. Why? 498 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:56,800 Why should I put more than 10%? Well it's just it's it's what do 499 00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,080 you believe where do what do you think is the expected return 500 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,440 right. It's a if you if you're sitting 501 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,760 there and you go, OK great, I really do you think Bitcoin can 502 00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,600 10X over the next decade and you're like, yeah, yeah, I do. 503 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:13,720 Great. Well, do you think you know 504 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,400 Exxon Mobil can 10X over the next decade? 505 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:18,520 Well, I think it can double. OK. 506 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:25,320 Well then you should be probably owning 0% of Exxon Mobil and 507 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,880 100% in Bitcoin. Now if you're not really sure 508 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:32,760 about the Bitcoin and you really want additional diversification, 509 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:40,920 OK, maybe I could see going you know 70% in Bitcoin and 20% or 510 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:44,880 30% in Exxon Mobil just if you had those two choices right. 511 00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,400 But it's just mathematically you're doing you're you're 512 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:52,520 making a mistake if you're trying to diverse if your number 513 00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:57,160 one goal is diversification as opposed to concentration in the 514 00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:01,000 positions that you believe in. Now, I wouldn't recommend doing 515 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,520 this unless you completely believe in Bitcoin. 516 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,440 But if you do believe in Bitcoin, I would say you should 517 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:07,720 put your money where your mouth is. 518 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:12,600 That's all I'm saying, OK, OK and what you have done, right, 519 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:16,160 what you have done, you're not taking your money out and you're 520 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,560 not buying. I mean do you own any S&P 500? 521 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:22,920 Why would I? There. 522 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:24,760 You go right. So why would you? 523 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:25,560 Good. Good point. 524 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,480 Right. Now I'll tell you one reason you 525 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,680 would is maybe you're wrong, right? 526 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,240 Maybe you're wrong. Maybe Bitcoin isn't going to go 527 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,960 up, or maybe it's going to go down and maybe you're going to 528 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,360 need the money for something else. 529 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:42,040 You know you're going to get hit by a car and you know you're 530 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:46,840 going to need to pay for some life or death thing. 531 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,600 So that's a good reason why not. Yeah, but I could I. 532 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,520 Could I could sell Bitcoin to do that right, But except you 533 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,440 might. Be selling Bitcoin potentially 534 00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,080 at the exact one time, right? Yeah, I know. 535 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:04,640 But you know, my entry was what, you know, six $700.00, but I 536 00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,360 think I got maybe some of the 500 like you know. 537 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,760 So a little bit is OK, right. But I guess, I guess what I'm 538 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:17,640 trying to say is, yeah, fine, it's the best investment return, 539 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:22,680 but the way that I see it is really is freedom. 540 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:28,920 So if I own SMP, if I own stocks and all that stuff, again, it's 541 00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:33,520 not that I'm a hater of stocks, it's I being a bitcoiner. 542 00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,560 I don't really feel like I actually own them, right? 543 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:41,400 Like unless I have like these like certificates printed out in 544 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,880 my home, in my drawer, of which it's not liquid, you know, 545 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:47,600 you're going to what, send them back to the brokerage and then 546 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:49,600 they have to process them. That's going to take like 2 547 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,040 weeks in order for me to sell those immediately. 548 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,680 Not to mention the fact that I can't send them instantaneously 549 00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:56,680 anywhere around the world. That's not the. 550 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:57,400 Way. OK. 551 00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,560 So that's the way they worked in 1870. 552 00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,720 OK. Like, I mean you're you're 553 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,080 thinking like Cornelius Vanderbilt, right? 554 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,040 Literally you have these like stock certificates. 555 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:10,160 No, no but the. Reason. 556 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,680 The reason I brought it up that way is because like that would 557 00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:19,120 be like like if if I have stocks, you know, on my on my 558 00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:23,360 Robin Hood account or my Charles Schwab account, that's not those 559 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:25,240 aren't in my possession A broker. 560 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,120 A broker's holding that for a custodian is holding that for me 561 00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,520 and and that brings. Us back to the ETF, right? 562 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:34,440 Yeah, because a Bitcoin ETF is exactly that, right? 563 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,640 Yeah. Actively, your Bitcoin is being 564 00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:42,240 held by Coinbase in the name of BlackRock, in the name of their 565 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,840 fund. And so you have, you have this 566 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,360 intermediary between you and your Bitcoin, right? 567 00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,160 So you don't have access to the Bitcoin and and furthermore, you 568 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,960 can't actually get the actual Bitcoin out of that. 569 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,720 You can get the dollars, which you can then use to buy the 570 00:33:56,720 --> 00:34:01,200 Bitcoin, but it's not actually the same as owning the Bitcoin, 571 00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,200 right? Yeah, OK. 572 00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:13,400 Now, what I would argue is, at the end of the day, what do you 573 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,760 care? Because if the Bitcoin really 574 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:21,040 goes up and you can sell it and you have reasonable conviction 575 00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,920 that they're going to do a good job custodying your Bitcoin, you 576 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:30,199 don't really care. Now if the entire system goes to 577 00:34:30,199 --> 00:34:34,320 hell in a handbasket, right? And we become, you know, this, 578 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,040 this ends up becoming like Blade Runner, right? 579 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:40,600 Or you're going to be walking around the streets of Los 580 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,600 Angeles, you know, with a Ledger on your neck. 581 00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:46,040 Right. And you're basically going to go 582 00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:51,360 buy gasoline by, you know, sending funds through your 583 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:55,960 samurai wallet to somebody else. Well, OK, then you kind of want 584 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,560 to have the Bitcoin. But in the other scenario, 585 00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,120 right? Which is where the world looks a 586 00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:05,080 lot more like the world today, except there are people who have 587 00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,000 the Bitcoin and there are people who don't, I don't think you 588 00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:08,920 care. Right. 589 00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,920 So and for most people, they're just not gonna go this route of 590 00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:14,320 self custody. They're just not. 591 00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,520 That's just won't. They won't do it right. 592 00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:19,240 Yeah, and by. The way. 593 00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,880 By the way. I completely agree with you cuz 594 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:28,520 I see that with my parents for example, there is definitely a 595 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,440 they you know they take self custody and multi sig you know 596 00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,760 kind of set up like collaborative custody with all 597 00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,800 the different services on chain Casa blah blah blah. 598 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,720 So there, there, there. There's good ways to do it, but 599 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:42,520 I'm the de facto IT guy, basically. 600 00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,520 But they got. They got they they got their son 601 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:51,320 OK, what happens to be A in Bitcoin B technical right and 602 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,120 they can call at any 10 minutes most most IT guy. 603 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,360 Have. A guy like you, but they can 604 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:02,360 help get advice on this stuff and and they just don't have the 605 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,880 time to learn about this stuff right. 606 00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,280 They're just they're not gonna do it and. 607 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,560 I and I agree with you, but but my OK, so I agree with you, by 608 00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,000 the way, but just to play devil's advocate for the sake of 609 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:18,480 the conversation, what about the infamous six one O 2 order? 610 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,240 You know, that's like one of the the talking points from the 611 00:36:21,240 --> 00:36:23,680 bitcoiners are like, oh, you know, they've done this in the 612 00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:25,640 past. They've just seized the money. 613 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:27,440 And, you know, there's this honeypot. 614 00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:29,160 And the reason that they were able to get away with the six 615 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:33,120 one O 2 order is because of the centralization of the custody of 616 00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,560 gold, right. So that's one of the, like the, 617 00:36:36,240 --> 00:36:38,560 you know, And then of course, like, look at the predicament 618 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,240 that the US government is currently in. 619 00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:43,920 You know, they're clearly on an unsustainable fiscal path, 620 00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,880 something that Jerome Powell even himself has admitted. 621 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,240 So, like, you know, you're looking at that. 622 00:36:51,240 --> 00:36:54,480 You're like, I don't know. I don't know if you know I I 623 00:36:54,480 --> 00:37:00,320 trust, you know BlackRock and Coinbase to to custody of my 624 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,160 Bitcoin. Like if you have faith in you 625 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,800 know in the political situation in the United States, then 626 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,080 perhaps. But I, I, you know my 627 00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,320 generation, the millennial generation, we lived through the 628 00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:14,880 2008 financial crisis right. They bailed out Wall Street. 629 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,800 They F Main Street. I I I just don't trust, you 630 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,200 know, the federal government. I don't trust the banks we all 631 00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,880 lived through. That that period, right, you you 632 00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:26,160 might have been a little bit more young and impressionable 633 00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,120 when when that happened, but we all lived through it, right? 634 00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:39,400 And I think, look, I, I, I don't think there's a risk, but but at 635 00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:44,200 the same time, I can see other benefits to self custody, right? 636 00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:48,120 I can see a benefit of, oh, let's just say I wanted to pack 637 00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:53,640 up and move to Iceland, right. It's a lot easier to have the 638 00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:58,840 Bitcoin just with you in a, you know, some wallet and go to 639 00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:04,320 Iceland than it is to wire money in the bank to convert it to 640 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:08,760 dollars and then wire the money to an Icelandic bank and all the 641 00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:11,320 rest, right. So there's a, there's a freedom 642 00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:16,760 element and that's a that's a big deal. 643 00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,560 That's probably not as much of a big deal for somebody living in 644 00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:23,680 America as it is somebody living, say, in Nigeria, right. 645 00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,080 If you're living in Nigeria, you absolutely do not trust the 646 00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,440 banks, right? The bank will 100% like rip you 647 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:37,680 off. So I'm I'm in favor of self 648 00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,200 custody. Most people can't figure it out, 649 00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,760 and I'm not trying to, I'm not trying to argue that you 650 00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:47,880 shouldn't get into self custody. I'm just saying it is going to 651 00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,560 be a fact that most people will not self custody right now 652 00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:53,560 because this is just a much easier way to go, right? 653 00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:59,600 And so, you know, if you can do it, it's great. 654 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,840 Has all kinds of advantages. Has some disadvantages too. 655 00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,280 You can lose your keys. You can screw up yourself. 656 00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:10,360 Custody you can. You can be not very good at 657 00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:13,000 opsec. You can get a key logger on your 658 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:14,720 system. You can get SIM swap. 659 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:18,440 You know, there's lots and lots and lots of reasons why. 660 00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,000 If you're not too careful, it can actually be a negative. 661 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:29,560 So you know I'm not trying to knock it for the you know your 662 00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:35,520 generation millennial bitcoiners but not everybody is a 663 00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:42,000 millennial book bitcoiner. There's most people are they're 664 00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,840 not going to go first of all they're not going to go 100% 665 00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:48,080 Bitcoin, number one, right. They're going to be I want to 666 00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,920 buy maybe 5% Bitcoin and if they're going to do 5% Bitcoin, 667 00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:54,280 they're they probably don't want to learn. 668 00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:58,040 They want to do all this stuff just for 5% of their portfolio. 669 00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:02,120 It's just too much work. So, and that's just sort of the 670 00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:06,120 reality of it and. And I think that because you're 671 00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,800 so immersed in this, that's where you, that's where you have 672 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,160 this blind spot about these ETFs, right? 673 00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:19,440 And that's why I think many Bitcoiners, many hardcore 674 00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:23,600 Bitcoiners and the voices of Bitcoin, up until December of 675 00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,960 last year, they were sort of saying like, these ETF's are 676 00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:27,640 kind of not that great. Whatever. 677 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:33,680 Bah Bah Bah, poo poo. But you know it's it's a blind 678 00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:35,080 swap. That's that's all I can tell 679 00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:36,720 you. It's a blind and it's clearly a 680 00:40:36,720 --> 00:40:39,840 blind swap because right now who's buying Bitcoin right now 681 00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,000 these ETFs are buying about 80% of all the Bitcoin. 682 00:40:43,720 --> 00:40:45,720 That's that's where the the buying is coming from. 683 00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:49,080 It's 80% his ETFs. It's not nowhere else. 684 00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:52,120 OK? That's the future. 685 00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:54,080 That's the future. I mean whether you like it or 686 00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:57,880 not, you know whether you choose to just to do self custody or 687 00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:02,680 not, the bulk is buying through these ETFs that's where the it's 688 00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:07,720 and I think it's going to be so much more going forward, I mean 689 00:41:07,720 --> 00:41:09,520 the bulk. Of what they can get their hands 690 00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:14,400 on right 'cause 11,000,000 Bitcoin are held already by 691 00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:18,360 individuals. You know, the those the the ETFs 692 00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:21,240 are going to have to convince those individuals to sell that 693 00:41:21,240 --> 00:41:25,600 Bitcoin. They will like, I I don't know 694 00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:30,160 about you, but I'm not telling, you know, I'm not like what am 695 00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:33,080 I, what am I going to sell for? Like it's like sell Victoria, 696 00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,160 sell this app. Something that has absolute 697 00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,560 scarcity for something for for, for unlimited. 698 00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:42,560 The the the keyword is not sell, it's spend, right? 699 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,320 So the. Keyword is this. 700 00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:50,760 I mean, you probably most bit pointers that I know kind of 701 00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:53,960 like you kind of amassed a stack by like being very careful and 702 00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:57,720 getting it early and they're not big spenders right now, right? 703 00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:00,960 But I guarantee you a Bitcoin 1,000,000, you're gonna start 704 00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:05,240 spending, you know, everybody does, everybody makes money, 705 00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,120 wants to spend the money, you know, because you can't take it 706 00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:10,760 with you to the grave, right? I mean with technically. 707 00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,000 OK, and I'm gonna be a kind of a pain in the ass here. 708 00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:15,760 Technically, you totally can take your Bitcoin with the 709 00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:16,840 grave. It's at the grave though. 710 00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:19,920 Throw away. The seed. 711 00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:22,840 That's what that's a sailor saying, right? 712 00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,880 He's like, OK, I'm going to say, OK, great. 713 00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,120 I don't know, I'm nitpicking. I'm nitpicking. 714 00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,000 I'm nitpicking. Yeah, that's. 715 00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:32,040 Sort of the ultimate stupidity, really. 716 00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,400 It's sort of like you're living life really poor. 717 00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:38,040 You're counting your score by how much Bitcoin you have and 718 00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,400 then you die and you don't spend any of it. 719 00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:45,840 Let's really stupid, like, you know, like life is not finite, 720 00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:50,000 you know you're doing this to enjoy more of it later. 721 00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:52,520 At some point later is now, right? 722 00:42:53,240 --> 00:42:57,920 So you know, I, for example, I, you know, if I travel, I always 723 00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:01,760 stay in five star hotels. I always travel first class, OK 724 00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:03,720 Why? Because I have a lot of money. 725 00:43:03,720 --> 00:43:07,240 I don't care. I'm in the enjoyment phase of my 726 00:43:07,240 --> 00:43:09,280 money, right? Of course. 727 00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:11,040 Of course. And you will. 728 00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:14,920 Too. I mean, it's like every person 729 00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:19,000 I've seen who's made multiple millions of dollars, it changes 730 00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:21,760 your life, right? You buy a nice car, you buy a 731 00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:26,560 new house, you start traveling. Well, that that's what you do, 732 00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:28,600 right? And you're going to do the same 733 00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:29,840 thing. And other bitcoins are going to 734 00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:32,960 do the same thing and they will start spending more, right? 735 00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:36,080 It's not like they're going to sell it and necessarily put it 736 00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:40,280 in S and PS or put it in the dollar and the savings bond, 737 00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,280 right? But they're going to start 738 00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,240 enjoying life a little bit more, right? 739 00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:46,800 And that's what I think is going to happen. 740 00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:52,080 And you will see a spending by all these people, and it's going 741 00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,840 to be very noticeable from a societal standpoint, is the 742 00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,520 people with the really big houses and the flashy cars and 743 00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,600 everything, they're all going to be bitcoiners, right? 744 00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:06,040 So what's going to happen? I think it's OK. 745 00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:07,400 I have no problem with it, right. 746 00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,280 It's like if you go to Palo Alto, right? 747 00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,960 OK, who who was buying all the houses in Palo Alto? 748 00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:18,320 The guys were like they were part of the Facebook IPO, right? 749 00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:20,920 Part of the Google IPO before that, right? 750 00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:26,600 You know, So, you know here in LA, you've got a bunch of snap 751 00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:30,400 millionaires, right? So you've got this new money 752 00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:36,840 that comes in, that new money has kids, builds houses, does 753 00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,960 all this stuff with the new money and kind of lives large at 754 00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,440 some point now they can wait a little bit before living quite 755 00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:45,600 large. But I get this idea of the 756 00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:47,680 people living on the mattress forever. 757 00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:52,440 I don't buy it this, you know, I've just seen enough people 758 00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:56,560 make money and they people always want to spend money and 759 00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:58,280 they. Yeah, they and they all do. 760 00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:00,800 So I I mean, I I. I agree. 761 00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,800 I think that there's an element like Look, if you want to build 762 00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:07,840 wealth specifically at an early age, there's an element of 763 00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:11,160 delaying gratification. But I think that once you get 764 00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:15,080 to, you know, once you get to a without being. 765 00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:16,840 Without being. Without. 766 00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:19,600 Without. Without specifying any numbers. 767 00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:20,320 Right. But once? 768 00:45:20,720 --> 00:45:22,560 Yeah, 10 years. From now, Bitcoin's on a million 769 00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:26,240 What do you do? What do I do specifically? 770 00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,680 Yeah, I mean, I I keep any of your. 771 00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:31,880 Your spending habits. Yeah, I. 772 00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:36,480 Mean I you know I I'm, I'm very happy and I think that the I 773 00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:40,240 think that I live you know I think the thing that makes the 774 00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:43,720 the reason that I get up in the morning is is is I I enjoy 775 00:45:43,720 --> 00:45:45,640 making content that's what I like to do. 776 00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:50,400 But is it gonna change my spending habits? 777 00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:54,880 I mean. Is it gonna change? 778 00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:58,720 You know what, what I value more than than than actual wealth, 779 00:45:58,720 --> 00:46:01,120 wealth I I would say is, is cash flow. 780 00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:06,080 I think cash flow is king. I think you know net worth in 781 00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,160 terms of it's just extremely painful. 782 00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:13,080 It's very painful to spend Bitcoin that you know, you know, 783 00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:15,280 coming from a guy, you know that. 784 00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:21,320 OK, look, I bought Bitcoin at 500, bitcoins at $66,228.00. 785 00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:26,960 It's very painful for me to spend Bitcoin because of exactly 786 00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:30,640 the reason that you just said. I know for a fact this thing is 787 00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,440 gonna hit $1,000,000, right? So a million. 788 00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:36,080 Dollars, you're gonna start. You're gonna start feeling a 789 00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:38,000 little less painful. Yeah. 790 00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:40,440 I mean of. I mean, you know, you, you, you, 791 00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:42,480 you splurge a little bit here and there. 792 00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:44,680 I guess you could say for sure, right? 793 00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,880 But you know, I I I'm, I'm a I'm a bit of a hoarder. 794 00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:50,000 I'm not gonna lie. I'm a bit of a hoarder. 795 00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,680 I I I I don't like spending my Bears people. 796 00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:54,880 Look, even Warren Buffett like you lived in I, I. 797 00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:59,560 I hope my wife does not listen to this podcast I'm telling. 798 00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:03,240 Her OK, this is Niko. This is Niko. 799 00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:07,440 You need to, like, get a plan together, right? 800 00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:09,680 To start spending Nico's money, OK? 801 00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:13,400 You need to start planning. It misses Nico because he's 802 00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:16,760 going to be a very rich, young Miamian, right? 803 00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:19,320 You're going to be a very rich. You know you're going to be 804 00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:20,880 right up there with Pitbull, right? 805 00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:23,320 Oh my God. You're going to be, you know. 806 00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:27,400 Mr. What did he call it? Four O 5 till I die or whatever 807 00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,520 that thing was. You know three O 5. 808 00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:31,000 Till I die, Yeah. OK. 809 00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:33,920 Right. So, you know, but look, your 810 00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,560 generation are going to be very rich. 811 00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:39,320 You really are. You're going to be very well off 812 00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:42,520 relative to the average dude in Miami. 813 00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:45,400 You didn't buy Bitcoin. I mean, just think about it, 814 00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:50,240 right? You take you, you, For whatever 815 00:47:50,240 --> 00:47:54,160 reason, you lucked into Bitcoin. OK, for whatever, it's pure 816 00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:56,440 luck. I think it's like, why did I get 817 00:47:56,440 --> 00:48:00,280 involved in luck? You know, I got, I got orange 818 00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:03,720 peeled randomly by this guy, Tom Lee, right. 819 00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:08,600 I think if if I hadn't taken that trip, you know this I went 820 00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:13,320 to the Bermuda on this sort of crypto boondoggle to open a bank 821 00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:17,920 right in Bermuda. And they invited me out and I, 822 00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:20,640 you know, listened to Tom Lee and talked for three days and I 823 00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:23,880 was just like, wow, yeah, I need to get serious with this 824 00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,960 Bitcoin. But had I not done that, I don't 825 00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:28,160 think I would have been orange peel. 826 00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:32,520 If so, I don't know what orange peel do you and maybe it's a 827 00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,040 show like this, that Lawrence pill you, you know, it doesn't 828 00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:37,480 have to be in person. It can just be something that 829 00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:42,520 clicks. But, but I do think that you 830 00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:46,240 know you're probably going to end up becoming quite more, 831 00:48:46,240 --> 00:48:49,440 quite a lot more wealthy than most of the people you know who 832 00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:54,200 didn't who didn't buy Bitcoin. It's that simple, right? 833 00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,120 It's sort of like taking that early job at Facebook or Google, 834 00:48:57,920 --> 00:48:59,680 you know? Yeah, I I I. 835 00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:07,160 You know it's it's it's it's it's definitely I it it's you 836 00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:13,560 know I I think bit corners have a very humble kind of way of of 837 00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:17,080 of looking at this and I think you know it's it's a it's a 838 00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:22,160 topic that our community is just not used to kind of exploring. 839 00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:26,320 But you know, for the sake of this conversation, I, I, I, I do 840 00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:30,960 believe that bit corners in the next 10 years are going to be 841 00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:36,000 the one of the wealthiest groups of people on the face of the 842 00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:37,600 planet. I mean, if you break down the 843 00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:41,280 numbers right, 50 to 60 million millionaires all around the 844 00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:46,440 world, 21 million Bitcoin. If you have one Bitcoin, right? 845 00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:50,000 You know, it's 66 K right now. If you have one Bitcoin. 846 00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:51,880 Yeah. I I truly believe you're gonna 847 00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:57,680 be in a in a an elite group of people that have the privilege 848 00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:02,520 to be able to own just one. I really believe that. 849 00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:07,400 So I, I, I I agree with your statement and you know in terms 850 00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:12,160 of the the the wealth aspect. Yeah I think you know I think 851 00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:15,720 it's very it's personality driven and you know I think it 852 00:50:15,720 --> 00:50:19,760 kind of it it you know the really the way that what is it 853 00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,880 that you want out of life. Like you know my wife could 854 00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:26,880 probably have a different answer but I I love making content you 855 00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:30,760 know I'm a I'm a pretty simple guy I've you know I've I've 856 00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,320 travelled the I've been very privileged to travel the world 857 00:50:33,320 --> 00:50:37,840 in in in my youth because of my parents and you know I, I, I, I 858 00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:42,040 I know what I like to do right. Which is make content. 859 00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:45,640 So as long as I'm making content and, you know, healthy, then 860 00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:47,320 that's what makes me happy, right? 861 00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:49,680 Well, the Bitcoin. Community is kind of, it's a 862 00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:52,040 it's a really interesting group of people, right? 863 00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:55,000 I mean, everything about Bitcoin is interesting, I think because 864 00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:58,440 it's such an unusual thing, right? 865 00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:02,760 The fact that that we have this piece of code, which was only 866 00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:07,760 3000 lines of code at the at the origin, right, And that 3000 867 00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:12,720 lines of code turned into this new monetary system without any 868 00:51:12,720 --> 00:51:16,360 CEO, it's it's insane, right? It's just an insane thing. 869 00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:18,720 So I do think it's, you know, it. 870 00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:23,560 It really is one of the most interest, the most interesting 871 00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:28,080 thing I've seen, you know, from a new technology perspective, 872 00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:32,760 including the Internet, right. You know, and I, I remember very 873 00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:35,560 much the world before the Internet and after the Internet, 874 00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:37,960 right. The Internet was pretty much 875 00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:42,280 already baked and done by the time you were like in diapers, 876 00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:45,960 right? But, But, you know, but you 877 00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:49,280 know, there are people like me who remember the world before an 878 00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:52,000 Internet, and we remember also the world before cell phones, 879 00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:55,480 right? And so if I had to, if I had to 880 00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:58,840 kind of handicap these things, I would say Bitcoin will make a 881 00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:01,160 more of a difference. It'll make more of a difference 882 00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,480 than both cell phones and the Internet. 883 00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:09,640 And I think those are the two big kind of, you know, tech 884 00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:15,680 innovations really that I've seen, you know over the the that 885 00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:17,840 have been present over the last 50 years, right. 886 00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:20,840 And this, this is going to be the biggest, this will be the 887 00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:25,640 biggest and because really we've reinvented money, right. 888 00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:33,760 And it's it is there are some great side corollaries to that 889 00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:37,360 because you know it's like you can hold your own money and you 890 00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:41,840 don't have to you know the government just can't take your 891 00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:43,480 money if you self custody it. Right. 892 00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:47,040 Not only the US government but what from whatever country 893 00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:47,760 you're in. Right. 894 00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:49,960 So those are really good things right. 895 00:52:49,960 --> 00:52:53,520 And I think and that's why I think why why Bitcoin was 896 00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:55,240 invented for that purpose. Right. 897 00:52:55,760 --> 00:53:01,160 But I think the you know the side aspect of this which is 898 00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:05,040 number go up people get rich. You know, I I'm from Wall 899 00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:09,800 Street, so I have no problem saying that's that's why I'm in 900 00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:12,640 Bitcoin. You know, personally I don't. 901 00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:17,880 I'm not here to you know make Nigeria better off. 902 00:53:17,880 --> 00:53:21,240 I not that I don't care about Nigeria but it's just I I've 903 00:53:21,720 --> 00:53:23,960 ever been to Nigeria. It's not on my mind. 904 00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:25,520 I don't, you know, I don't know, I don't. 905 00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:28,160 I'm not here to make the world a better place. 906 00:53:29,000 --> 00:53:33,440 But I do think Bitcoin net net is a positive for the world. 907 00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:36,560 But I think it's an incredible positive if you get in there 908 00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:38,200 early, which is why it works, right. 909 00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:44,160 So I think it's, you know it at the end of the day, you know 910 00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,400 I'll, I'll be a little politically incorrect and say, 911 00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:49,160 yeah, I'm interested in number go up. 912 00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:51,800 I don't think that's. Politically correct at all. 913 00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:54,280 I think that's like if we're being honest, I think that's the 914 00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:56,880 vast majority you know the the the same. 915 00:53:56,880 --> 00:54:00,200 I'm just. Trying to be to tell it like it 916 00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:03,400 is, right. And you know, some people, some 917 00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:07,080 people have said, oh, Fred's only interested in number go up. 918 00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:10,880 And I'm like, yeah, just be. Honest guys. 919 00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:12,680 And just. I just want to be honest. 920 00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:14,840 Yeah, I mean, I. Think I think everyone's 921 00:54:14,840 --> 00:54:16,920 interested I don't think. I don't think this would work 922 00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:19,240 unless number go up. I think number go up is the 923 00:54:19,240 --> 00:54:22,160 thing right? Like like you know I think it's 924 00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:23,920 Taylor said. I've said this many times too 925 00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:27,120 Bitcoin is binary. If this thing does not go up you 926 00:54:27,120 --> 00:54:30,000 know it it dies. Like it either goes up forever 927 00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:34,440 or it dies like that's that's maybe it's a simplistic way of a 928 00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:35,560 fish. Can't swim. 929 00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:37,880 If a fish doesn't swim, it dies, right? 930 00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:40,680 Yeah. If Bitcoin doesn't go up, it 931 00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:43,360 dies. Yeah, I mean. 932 00:54:43,360 --> 00:54:45,400 I I I like. I agree. 933 00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:48,880 I and you know I I came for. You know. 934 00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:54,400 The personally, right, you know, I was 23 years old, 24 and you 935 00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:56,800 know I was very kind of low point in my life and I saw 936 00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,360 Bitcoin as you know, an opportunity. 937 00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:01,800 I came for the money and then I ended up staying for the 938 00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,520 revolution cause go down the rabbit hole and you know kind of 939 00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:07,680 changes you. But again, right from my, let's 940 00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:11,120 say, my parents perspective or my parents in law, I never 941 00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:15,040 forget I I I was pitching it. It wasn't my parents when I was 942 00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:17,120 now my parents are like fully orange peel. 943 00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:19,040 But I was. I was pitching one of my 944 00:55:19,040 --> 00:55:22,040 parents, one of, I think it was my mom. 945 00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:26,040 Coming in the comments, number go up is the gateway drug, yeah, 946 00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:29,880 there. You go, so that's exactly. 100% 947 00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:31,400 I agree with that. I don't know but but. 948 00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:33,680 But what they said was really interesting because they said 949 00:55:33,680 --> 00:55:36,960 and it was one of my my mom's clients or something like that, 950 00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:39,160 and and I was like pitching them and I was like whatever. 951 00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:40,320 And he looks at me dead in the eye. 952 00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:44,040 He's like Nico, I'm not interested in the revolution. 953 00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:45,720 I'm. I'm. 954 00:55:45,720 --> 00:55:48,680 Interested in the investment, You know, as an older, an older 955 00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:51,600 gentleman made his fortune, already made his money, you 956 00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:53,720 know, not really, not, doesn't really care. 957 00:55:53,720 --> 00:55:56,200 And then this kind of all circles back to the very 958 00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:58,880 beginning of the conversation, which is the ETFs, right? 959 00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:02,520 And the case that you're making is that the ETFs are the 960 00:56:02,520 --> 00:56:06,640 mechanism of which, you know, the older generation, which 961 00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:09,480 happens to have the lion's share of the world's wealth, is gonna 962 00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:12,880 finally get exposure to the best asset class that has ever 963 00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:14,320 existed in the history of mankind. 964 00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:18,840 They're going to get exposure. They're not necessarily going to 965 00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:20,720 go all in. They're just going to take a 966 00:56:20,720 --> 00:56:22,280 little exposure. They're going to get a little 967 00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:25,800 slice of it right. So they're not going to get, 968 00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:28,840 they're not going to benefit as much as you have, right? 969 00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:31,960 Or you got your Bitcoin super cheap, OK? 970 00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:38,560 And but they're going to get, they're going to get exposure. 971 00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:40,080 They're going to, they're going to get benefit. 972 00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:43,400 And moreover, they're going to, they're going to be on the bit, 973 00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:48,640 the pro Bitcoin platform, right. So if you know, they tried to do 974 00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:53,600 61-O twos, right, if we get 10 million people who own Bitcoin 975 00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:56,600 in America, they're not going to be a six one O 2. 976 00:56:56,880 --> 00:57:02,480 They won't, right. Because Fred's going to 100% 977 00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:09,280 going to sell. No, but you know what I'm 978 00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:14,960 saying? Like the the the you need to get 979 00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:18,960 a a fair amount of people who are are on Team Bitcoin and the 980 00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:21,840 best way to do that is to get people through the ETF because 981 00:57:22,120 --> 00:57:24,160 they're going to be on Team Bitcoin, they're going to want 982 00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:28,440 Bitcoin to to work, yeah. Yeah, I agree. 983 00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:31,760 I agree. Anyways, we are getting to the 984 00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:34,800 top of the hour, Fred. I I really enjoyed this 985 00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:38,280 conversation. Really took a different turn and 986 00:57:38,280 --> 00:57:41,200 and I I love when the conversations take a different 987 00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:44,040 turn. You know, love what you're, you 988 00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:46,240 know, tweeting out, what you're contributing to the community. 989 00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,080 It seems like the community's liking it as well. 990 00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:52,640 If you had any last message to our audience, what would it be? 991 00:57:54,520 --> 00:58:00,720 Listen, I I think the one thing I would say is we're probably on 992 00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:04,320 a gonna be on a very big roll for the next couple of years. 993 00:58:04,960 --> 00:58:07,200 So I would sort of say just chill right now. 994 00:58:08,360 --> 00:58:11,720 Don't try to be too cute. You know the one thing you don't 995 00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:16,480 want to do right now is to try to sell and buy again, because I 996 00:58:16,480 --> 00:58:18,600 think that's going to be just a disaster. 997 00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:23,680 I think, you know, I huddling is by far the best strategy. 998 00:58:24,120 --> 00:58:28,080 You should just hold on. But the worst possible thing you 999 00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:31,880 could do would be to try to sell with the idea of buying it back 1000 00:58:31,880 --> 00:58:33,520 cheaper. Do not even. 1001 00:58:33,680 --> 00:58:35,200 Don't even think about doing that. 1002 00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:38,640 You know when, when, when the time's right for you to sell 1003 00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:42,640 part of your staff to spend part of your staff, do it. 1004 00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:46,400 But don't, don't try to time the market because you're going to 1005 00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:48,600 fail. And I listen, I was a pro 1006 00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:51,360 trader. I can't, I can't time Bitcoin. 1007 00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:53,920 I have no idea short term what Bitcoin's going to do. 1008 00:58:53,920 --> 00:58:56,400 Zero. I mean, I think it's going to go 1009 00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:58,840 up. But, you know, did I think it 1010 00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:01,440 was going to go down at 10% at one point yesterday? 1011 00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:02,680 No. You know what I mean? 1012 00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:05,600 I I don't know. Nobody can predict Bitcoin. 1013 00:59:05,600 --> 00:59:11,400 It has a mind of its own, so don't try to trade it and just 1014 00:59:12,080 --> 00:59:16,040 hold it. Get a good position and just 1015 00:59:16,040 --> 00:59:19,160 amuse yourself with Bitcoin, Twitter and whatever else and 1016 00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:22,920 models or whatever else just keeps the keeps you happy. 1017 00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:26,480 Play video games, do whatever you want with your time, but do 1018 00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:28,880 not sell. But that's what I would say. 1019 00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:34,840 I hope that helps no it. It it 100 million percent helps, 1020 00:59:34,840 --> 00:59:36,760 right? You know, stay humble, stack 1021 00:59:36,760 --> 00:59:39,880 Sats, huddle, don't try to trade. 1022 00:59:40,280 --> 00:59:43,880 And that's how you went. Anyways, Fred, thank you so much 1023 00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:48,080 for coming on the show. Really, really appreciate it and 1024 00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:50,800 thank you and hope to have you back on in a couple months or 1025 00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:51,560 so. Appreciate it. 1026 00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:53,440 See where we? Are in 3-4 months. 1027 00:59:53,600 --> 00:59:54,880 See ya. Sounds good. 1028 00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:58,640 All right guys, I hope you enjoyed this episode of Simply 1029 00:59:58,640 --> 01:00:01,680 Bitcoin IRL with our guest Fred Krueger. 1030 01:00:01,960 --> 01:00:06,520 We'll be back tomorrow with the live show at 12:15 PM Eastern 1031 01:00:06,520 --> 01:00:10,520 Standard Time for another episode of Whoa, I Just hit my 1032 01:00:10,520 --> 01:00:14,480 mic of Simply Bitcoin Live. Peace out, everybody. 1033 01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:18,120 Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a 1034 01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:21,280 Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial 1035 01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:22,080 independence.