Hello. Hello.
Why isn't that? We're making new all time highs,
huh. I thought you said it was going
with the moon or whatever you said it's just sitting there.
It's $69,000 and the gold you told me to sell.
Yeah, that's just crossed 5000. What the?
I've been hearing this question a lot this week and
unfortunately I have the answer. It's just one word. the Fed.
They haven't moved. Well, technically that's 5
words, but you still get the point.
January 29th, Jerome Powell says 2 camera.
We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance.
I guess that means they're frozen and when the Fed freezes,
Bitcoin freezes because Bitcoin doesn't really trade on retail
vibes. Well, maybe it trades on vibe
coded vibes using Openclaw, but that's another discussion.
Well, that and liquidity. And liquidity right now is
pretty much dried up. With gold, on the other hand,
gold just hit $5000. And that gap between what gold
is doing and what Bitcoin is doing is the whole story today.
Emotions. This is beyond Bitcoin.
Let's go. Have you ever been so confused
about something that you spend an entire week just scrolling,
reading, watching, trying to figure it out?
And then you finally land on the answer and it's so obvious and
you feel like the answer was just laughing at you the whole
time, like it was just sitting there waiting, like it was
having a coffee, like it was comfortable.
Anyway, that's how I felt researching this episode.
Here's what I came up with first, Bitcoin and the Fed, the
perfect 90s sitcom couple. When the Fed freezes, Bitcoin
freezes. That may just be a theory I
cooked up before recording this, but it's a theory that has
popped up 83% of all 12 month periods since Bitcoin existed.
So I mean, come on, there's a correlation there, right?
Second, gold is at $5000 an ounce.
What the hell is happening? I'll tell you, central banks
have been buying gold every single month since 2020.
Two 1000 tons a year, three years running.
They must be in it for the tech, right?
No, they're doing it because in 2022 the US sanction Russia's
dollar reserves. Overnight, $300 billion seized,
and every central bank on earth woke up after that hangover and
asked what can't be frozen and what do we know how to deal with
already? Ah, yes, gold.
But if you look real careful and you also make Bitcoin content,
you see that that's a Bitcoin argument wearing different
pants. Third, the strategic Bitcoin
Reserve, a saga that has lasted longer than Star Trek
iterations. One year ago today, Trump signed
the executive order and it's still been sitting on his desk
collecting dust. the US government allegedly holds
380,000 Bitcoin. They haven't sold a SAT, and
that's probably because they spoke to the folks at The
Bitcoin Way. By the end of this video, you'll
understand that Bitcoin isn't frozen because something is
wrong. Bitcoin is frozen because the
thing that it moves with hasn't moved yet.
And when it does, gold will look like an insignificant speck on
the heel of Michael Saylor's running shoes.
Let's start with the Fed, because this is the piece that
most people skip past. They land on price, they land on
ETF flows, they land on on chain data and miss the thing sitting
right at the center of the argument.
Bitcoin tracks global M2 money supply, total global liquidity
83% of the time in any given 12 month window.
Lynn Alden and Sam Callahan published this research.
More than gold, more than stocks, more than any other
major asset class, Bitcoin follows the money.
Literally. So the single most important
thing said about Bitcoin in January 2025 didn't come from a
Bitcoin conference. It didn't come from Sailor, and
it didn't come from X. It came from Jerome Powell
reading from a prepared statement like I am right now
into a camera. That recalibration of our policy
stance was appropriate in light of the progress on inflation and
the rebalancing in the labor market.
With our policy stance significantly less restrictive
than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need
to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance.
At today's meeting, the committee decided to maintain
the target range for the federal funds rate at 4:00 and 3:45 and
a half percent. We know that reducing policy
restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on
inflation. At the same time, reducing
policy restraint too slowly or too little could unduly weaken
economic activity and employment.
We do not need to be in a hurry. He said the Fed funds rate has
been at 4:00 and 3:45 and a half percent since December 2024.
Three straight meetings, no move.
That means the global liquidity environment is tight, Not
collapsing, it's just tight. the Fed isn't adding fuel to the
money supply. It's parked.
And when the money supply is parked, Bitcoin parks with it.
So I think liquidity is a really big variable and I think that
that Bitcoin is more correlated with liquidity than most other
assets. And and how much of A part do
you think that's playing in this drawdown now?
Because I would say 2025 is probably in the time I've been
in Bitcoin, the year that almost no one's been right on on
Bitcoin. Like I don't think it's gone up
nearly as much as people thought.
There was a lot of calls for this being like the cycles being
over, potentially they still are.
But how do you, like, take this in?
Like why do you think Bitcoin's crashing now?
So I think it's actually the more inching factor is why it's
been flat for so long because the crash itself, like even in
the 2017 bull run that was a fairly smooth and and kind of
parabolic bull run, but still had multiple sharp 30%
corrections along the way, like several.
Yeah, you notice, Alden says. More correlated with liquidity
than most other assets. When global liquidity expands,
Bitcoin absorbs a portion of it. When it contracts or parks,
Bitcoin follows. Right now it's parked.
But here's what's not parked to the conditions that will force
the Fed to eventually move $36 trillion in national debt, $1.9
trillion deficit in 2026. Interest payments alone, that's
$1 trillion a year, tripled since 2021.
The Cape ratio on US equities 39.8 highest sincethe.com crash
the Fed can hold here for now. But the math only works so long
before the pressure to ease becomes unavoidable.
The deficit is structural, the debt service is structural.
And every time the liquidity environment shifts in 2019 or
2020 or 2023, Bitcoin shifted with it, usually with a lag,
usually bigger than expected. The story isn't Bitcoin is
broken. The story is the Fed is holding
its breath. Bitcoin is holding it with them.
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As I mentioned, gold crossed $5000 an ounce in 2026, first
time in history, up 65% in 2025. That's the best year for gold
since 1979. JP Morgan is targeting 6300 by
the end of the year. Now I want to go on record right
now because this is a recording, so I am going on record.
This is not a gold story. Central banks bought more than
1000 tons of gold per year for three straight years.
Goldman Sachs estimates 60 tons a month right now, up from 17 a
month before in 2020. Two, 95% of central banks came
up with a plan to increase gold holdings this year.
China has been doing 14 consecutive months of buying.
Why? Ask yourself what changed in
2022? the US froze Russia's dollar
reserves, $300 billion seized overnight, you remember.
And every central bank on earth woke up after that hangover and
asked what can't be frozen and what do we know how to deal with
already? Yes, gold.
But that's Bitcoin's argument word for word.
It's a hard asset fix supply. Unlike gold, no counterparty, no
subject to sovereign decree. Gold is running because central
banks figured out the exit. They just stopped one stop
short. For analysts that are predicting
such wildly higher gold prices as we almost shift the monetary
anchor from Treasuries as the primary reserve back to gold.
Yeah. It's not that I disagree with
him. I think it's just a matter of
probabilities or or timelines. I mean, I would not have guessed
that we'd be at 5000 gold roughly speaking right now.
I mean, as of as of somebody who's long it, I'm happy we are.
But I would not have, you know, if you asked me a year ago, do
you think gold would be 5000? I'd be like, well, no, So it, it
can always surprise you. The upside.
I think one of the thing that's worth keeping in mind is that
$10,000 gold is only a double from here, meaning that even if
that view is right and it very well could be it's a double,
right. So you're you're taking on
downside risk if it if it drops back down to 4003 thousand an
ounce. Shift the monitor anchor from
treasuries back to gold. She's not wrong, she just thinks
it's a timing question. So do I.
But here's what I'll add. If the monetary anchor is
moving, it doesn't stop at gold. Gold is the first stop for
central banks because they've dealt with it for centuries.
It's familiar. It's politically defensible.
But Bitcoin is the second stop, and it's been waiting.
When you price equities in gold instead of dollars over the last
five years, they're flat to negative.
Real wealth didn't move the dollar.
Debased gold held the line. That's what gold does.
It runs when the monetary system is under pressure.
But it doesn't run harder than the money printed against it.
Gold is the seat belt. Bitcoin is the parachute.
Bitcoin is is certainly at least digital gold.
It's going to eat gold. It's got all of the great
attributes of gold and it's got none of the defects of gold.
If you could teleport gold from New York to Tokyo in a in a few
minutes, people would like it. It's going to divert capital
from risk, risk assets and risk ETFs like SP Y.
And you can see that these these ETFs are doing that.
It's going to be incorporated into a lot of funds like the
BlackRock Global Opportunities Fund or the Strategic Income
Opportunities Fund. And so as it's an asset class,
as it goes into other funds, it's going to become structural.
All the attributes, none of the defects.
Gold can't teleport. Bitcoin can.
Gold custody takes armored trucks and vaults.
Bitcoin custody is a hardware wallet the size of a thumb
drive. Gold supply grows every year.
Miners dig more Bitcoin supplies fixed at 21 million forever.
Bitcoin is a $2 trillion market cap in a $29 trillion room.
The capital that proved the thesis in gold will eventually
look for the asymmetric version of the same trade.
Bitcoin is that asymmetric version.
The central banks already confirmed the thesis, they just
haven't made the second stop yet, as I mentioned.
Which brings me to the Bitcoin way.
If this thesis is landing for you, that holding your own hard
asset outside of the system that can freeze them overnight is the
right move and the bitcoinway.com is the next step.
Their team walks you through complete Bitcoin self custody.
Not a YouTube tutorial, a real free 30 minute consultation.
If you go to thebitcoinway.com/beyond
Bitcoin, meaning you mentioned us, you know you're watching the
show, you get a free 30 minute consultation.
They'll teach you about hardware wallets, setting up your own
node, full verification, and total sovereignty over your
stack. It's completely free.
So go to thebitcoinway.com/beyond
Bitcoin. That's the bitcoinway.com/beyond
Bitcoin for your free 30 minute consultation.
Now let's talk about the strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
One year ago today, March 6th, 2025, President Trump signed the
executive order. It's been sitting on his desk.
David Sacks posted it. Trump called it virtual Fort
Knox for digital gold and the Bitcoin community had its, you
know, revelatory moment. But today, that reserve still
doesn't legally exist. the US government allegedly holds
328,372 Bitcoin seized in criminal proceedings from Silk
Road and the bit the next hack, the executive order says hold
it, secure it, call it a reserve.
But the Treasury says they need Congress to codify it.
Now Congress has introduced 3 bills, The Bitcoin Act which is
to buy 1,000,000 Bitcoin over the next five years, the Bitcoin
for America Act which seems like the same thing with a flag on
it, and HR 2112 which is to codify the order.
All three are sitting in committee.
The sovereigns didn't really show up.
You know, people were talking about the strategic Bitcoin
reserve a lot last year. I was on record saying I'm not
going to, you know, expect that really.
And then the other side is retail didn't really show up.
And instead the only real players this time were kind of
in the middle, the corporate institutional side, kind of
higher net worth retail that have a brokerage account and the
ETFs opened up to them, made it, made it easier, but not really
like a deluge of people buying Bitcoin, taking self custody of
it. 328,000 bitcoins sitting in U.S. government wallets.
At today's price, that's $22 billion.
And they are actively choosing not to sell it.
That's not a coincidence. That's a position, an allegedly
excellent one. The paperwork isn't done, and
the reserve isn't official. But the Bitcoin is there, and it
isn't moving right. It is there, right?
Every country watching this is running the same calculation
central banks ran about gold in 2022.
If the US holds it and won't sell it, what do they know that
we should know? The reserve order is stalled.
The Bitcoin is not. So the original question, why
isn't Bitcoin at all time highs? the Fed is frozen.
Global liquidity, the thing Bitcoin tracks 83% of the time,
is parked. No expansion, no new fuel.
So Bitcoin waits. Gold already ran.
Central banks figured out the hard asset thesis.
They moved while the Fed was frozen, bought the exit that
doesn't need permission, and in doing so confirmed the thesis
Bitcoin has been making for 15 years.
The reserve is technically incomplete.
The sovereign catalyst that was supposed to accelerate global
momentum is still winding through some kind of committee.
You know, fine, but 328,000 bitcoins sit in U.S. government
wallets, allegedly. Take all three and the question
changes entirely. It isn't.
Why isn't Bitcoin at all time highs?
It's what happens when any of these shift.
If the Fed cuts, liquidity expands and Bitcoin follows the
M2 the way it has in every prior cycle, with a lag and bigger
than expected. If the reserve gets codified,
that's a signal other nations run the calculation.
Lynn Alden has already run out loud and the capital, sitting in
gold at 5000, starts asking where the asymmetric version of
this trade is, $2 trillion asset in a $29 trillion room.
Remember fixed supply, no counterparty.
These aren't predictions, they're just what the thesis
says. And same thesis, central banks
already confirmed with gold. The same thesis the US
government confirmed by not selling 380,000 Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is at 69,000. Not because something broke.
Bitcoin is at 69,000 because the Fed hasn't moved yet.
It's frozen and frozen means it's coiled.
Now I want to stop right here and give a shout out to
cluborange.org. That's formerly the orange Pill
app. This is the premier app.
If you want to connect with Bitcoiners in your local
proximity, you can have conversations about Bitcoin and
macroeconomics, or you could just go grab a coffee and talk
Bitcoin with someone near you. You can meet a new friend.
So go to cluborange.org right now, sign up on the app, and you
can even reach out to me there. I'm at Oceans OSHINSI read all
my DMS and I respond accordingly.
I'll see you there. Here's what I keep coming back
to. the Fed says we're not in a hurry, and they mean it.
The economy is holding, inflation is sticky, but it's
manageable at the moment and there's no cuts.
Right, but not in a hurry. At the macro level.
Looks like $36 trillion in debt and one trillion a year in
interest. You can hold rates for a while,
but you can't hold the math. And when the math wins, when the
Fed has to move because the alternative is worse, the assets
best position aren't the ones waiting for a bill to pass.
They're the ones already mined, already in wallets, already
running on fixed schedule that doesn't need anyone's permission
or anyone's hurry. The Fed is frozen not forever
though, just for now. So study Bitcoin.
Thank you so much for watching this video.
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