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Hello. 
Hello. 

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Why isn't that? 
We're making new all time highs,

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huh. 
I thought you said it was going 

4
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with the moon or whatever you 
said it's just sitting there. 

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It's $69,000 and the gold you 
told me to sell. 

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Yeah, that's just crossed 5000. 
What the? 

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I've been hearing this question 
a lot this week and 

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unfortunately I have the answer.
It's just one word. the Fed. 

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They haven't moved. 
Well, technically that's 5 

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words, but you still get the 
point. 

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January 29th, Jerome Powell says
2 camera. 

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We do not need to be in a hurry 
to adjust our policy stance. 

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I guess that means they're 
frozen and when the Fed freezes,

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Bitcoin freezes because Bitcoin 
doesn't really trade on retail 

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vibes. 
Well, maybe it trades on vibe 

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coded vibes using Openclaw, but 
that's another discussion. 

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Well, that and liquidity. 
And liquidity right now is 

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pretty much dried up. 
With gold, on the other hand, 

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gold just hit $5000. 
And that gap between what gold 

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is doing and what Bitcoin is 
doing is the whole story today. 

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Emotions. 
This is beyond Bitcoin. 

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00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:07,160
Let's go. 
Have you ever been so confused 

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about something that you spend 
an entire week just scrolling, 

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reading, watching, trying to 
figure it out? 

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And then you finally land on the
answer and it's so obvious and 

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you feel like the answer was 
just laughing at you the whole 

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time, like it was just sitting 
there waiting, like it was 

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having a coffee, like it was 
comfortable. 

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Anyway, that's how I felt 
researching this episode. 

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Here's what I came up with 
first, Bitcoin and the Fed, the 

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perfect 90s sitcom couple. 
When the Fed freezes, Bitcoin 

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freezes. 
That may just be a theory I 

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cooked up before recording this,
but it's a theory that has 

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popped up 83% of all 12 month 
periods since Bitcoin existed. 

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So I mean, come on, there's a 
correlation there, right? 

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Second, gold is at $5000 an 
ounce. 

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What the hell is happening? 
I'll tell you, central banks 

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have been buying gold every 
single month since 2020. 

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Two 1000 tons a year, three 
years running. 

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They must be in it for the tech,
right? 

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No, they're doing it because in 
2022 the US sanction Russia's 

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dollar reserves. 
Overnight, $300 billion seized, 

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and every central bank on earth 
woke up after that hangover and 

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asked what can't be frozen and 
what do we know how to deal with

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already? 
Ah, yes, gold. 

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00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,240
But if you look real careful and
you also make Bitcoin content, 

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you see that that's a Bitcoin 
argument wearing different 

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pants. 
Third, the strategic Bitcoin 

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Reserve, a saga that has lasted 
longer than Star Trek 

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iterations. 
One year ago today, Trump signed

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the executive order and it's 
still been sitting on his desk 

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collecting dust. the US 
government allegedly holds 

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380,000 Bitcoin. 
They haven't sold a SAT, and 

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that's probably because they 
spoke to the folks at The 

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Bitcoin Way. 
By the end of this video, you'll

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understand that Bitcoin isn't 
frozen because something is 

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wrong. 
Bitcoin is frozen because the 

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thing that it moves with hasn't 
moved yet. 

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And when it does, gold will look
like an insignificant speck on 

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the heel of Michael Saylor's 
running shoes. 

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Let's start with the Fed, 
because this is the piece that 

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most people skip past. 
They land on price, they land on

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ETF flows, they land on on chain
data and miss the thing sitting 

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right at the center of the 
argument. 

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Bitcoin tracks global M2 money 
supply, total global liquidity 

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83% of the time in any given 12 
month window. 

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Lynn Alden and Sam Callahan 
published this research. 

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More than gold, more than 
stocks, more than any other 

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major asset class, Bitcoin 
follows the money. 

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Literally. 
So the single most important 

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thing said about Bitcoin in 
January 2025 didn't come from a 

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Bitcoin conference. 
It didn't come from Sailor, and 

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it didn't come from X. 
It came from Jerome Powell 

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reading from a prepared 
statement like I am right now 

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into a camera. 
That recalibration of our policy

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stance was appropriate in light 
of the progress on inflation and

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the rebalancing in the labor 
market. 

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With our policy stance 
significantly less restrictive 

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than it had been and the economy
remaining strong, we do not need

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to be in a hurry to adjust our 
policy stance. 

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At today's meeting, the 
committee decided to maintain 

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the target range for the federal
funds rate at 4:00 and 3:45 and 

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a half percent. 
We know that reducing policy 

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restraint too fast or too much 
could hinder progress on 

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inflation. 
At the same time, reducing 

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policy restraint too slowly or 
too little could unduly weaken 

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economic activity and 
employment. 

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We do not need to be in a hurry.
He said the Fed funds rate has 

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been at 4:00 and 3:45 and a half
percent since December 2024. 

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Three straight meetings, no 
move. 

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That means the global liquidity 
environment is tight, Not 

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collapsing, it's just tight. the
Fed isn't adding fuel to the 

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money supply. 
It's parked. 

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And when the money supply is 
parked, Bitcoin parks with it. 

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So I think liquidity is a really
big variable and I think that 

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that Bitcoin is more correlated 
with liquidity than most other 

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assets. 
And and how much of A part do 

98
00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:02,600
you think that's playing in this
drawdown now? 

99
00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:06,640
Because I would say 2025 is 
probably in the time I've been 

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00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:10,520
in Bitcoin, the year that almost
no one's been right on on 

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Bitcoin. 
Like I don't think it's gone up 

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nearly as much as people 
thought. 

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There was a lot of calls for 
this being like the cycles being

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over, potentially they still 
are. 

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00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:21,160
But how do you, like, take this 
in? 

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Like why do you think Bitcoin's 
crashing now? 

107
00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,640
So I think it's actually the 
more inching factor is why it's 

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been flat for so long because 
the crash itself, like even in 

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the 2017 bull run that was a 
fairly smooth and and kind of 

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parabolic bull run, but still 
had multiple sharp 30% 

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corrections along the way, like 
several. 

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Yeah, you notice, Alden says. 
More correlated with liquidity 

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than most other assets. 
When global liquidity expands, 

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Bitcoin absorbs a portion of it.
When it contracts or parks, 

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Bitcoin follows. 
Right now it's parked. 

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But here's what's not parked to 
the conditions that will force 

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the Fed to eventually move $36 
trillion in national debt, $1.9 

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trillion deficit in 2026. 
Interest payments alone, that's 

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$1 trillion a year, tripled 
since 2021. 

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The Cape ratio on US equities 
39.8 highest sincethe.com crash 

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the Fed can hold here for now. 
But the math only works so long 

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before the pressure to ease 
becomes unavoidable. 

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The deficit is structural, the 
debt service is structural. 

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And every time the liquidity 
environment shifts in 2019 or 

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2020 or 2023, Bitcoin shifted 
with it, usually with a lag, 

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usually bigger than expected. 
The story isn't Bitcoin is 

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broken. 
The story is the Fed is holding 

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00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,360
its breath. 
Bitcoin is holding it with them.

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00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,240
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00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,800
As I mentioned, gold crossed 
$5000 an ounce in 2026, first 

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00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:09,240
time in history, up 65% in 2025.
That's the best year for gold 

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since 1979. 
JP Morgan is targeting 6300 by 

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00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:14,520
the end of the year. 
Now I want to go on record right

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00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,840
now because this is a recording,
so I am going on record. 

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This is not a gold story. 
Central banks bought more than 

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1000 tons of gold per year for 
three straight years. 

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Goldman Sachs estimates 60 tons 
a month right now, up from 17 a 

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month before in 2020. 
Two, 95% of central banks came 

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00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:34,360
up with a plan to increase gold 
holdings this year. 

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China has been doing 14 
consecutive months of buying. 

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Why? 
Ask yourself what changed in 

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2022? 
the US froze Russia's dollar 

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00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,920
reserves, $300 billion seized 
overnight, you remember. 

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00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:49,160
And every central bank on earth 
woke up after that hangover and 

152
00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:52,080
asked what can't be frozen and 
what do we know how to deal with

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00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:53,800
already? 
Yes, gold. 

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00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:55,800
But that's Bitcoin's argument 
word for word. 

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It's a hard asset fix supply. 
Unlike gold, no counterparty, no

156
00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,800
subject to sovereign decree. 
Gold is running because central 

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00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,840
banks figured out the exit. 
They just stopped one stop 

158
00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:08,480
short. 
For analysts that are predicting

159
00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:13,280
such wildly higher gold prices 
as we almost shift the monetary 

160
00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:17,040
anchor from Treasuries as the 
primary reserve back to gold. 

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00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:18,560
Yeah. 
It's not that I disagree with 

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00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:19,560
him. 
I think it's just a matter of 

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00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,160
probabilities or or timelines. 
I mean, I would not have guessed

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00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,120
that we'd be at 5000 gold 
roughly speaking right now. 

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00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:29,240
I mean, as of as of somebody 
who's long it, I'm happy we are.

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00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,200
But I would not have, you know, 
if you asked me a year ago, do 

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00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,880
you think gold would be 5000? 
I'd be like, well, no, So it, it

168
00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:36,480
can always surprise you. 
The upside. 

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00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,440
I think one of the thing that's 
worth keeping in mind is that 

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00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:43,520
$10,000 gold is only a double 
from here, meaning that even if 

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00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,560
that view is right and it very 
well could be it's a double, 

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00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:48,440
right. 
So you're you're taking on 

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00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:52,240
downside risk if it if it drops 
back down to 4003 thousand an 

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00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:53,800
ounce. 
Shift the monitor anchor from 

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00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:56,720
treasuries back to gold. 
She's not wrong, she just thinks

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it's a timing question. 
So do I. 

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00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:02,320
But here's what I'll add. 
If the monetary anchor is 

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00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:05,840
moving, it doesn't stop at gold.
Gold is the first stop for 

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00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,760
central banks because they've 
dealt with it for centuries. 

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00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,400
It's familiar. 
It's politically defensible. 

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00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:13,840
But Bitcoin is the second stop, 
and it's been waiting. 

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00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,880
When you price equities in gold 
instead of dollars over the last

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00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,240
five years, they're flat to 
negative. 

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00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:21,800
Real wealth didn't move the 
dollar. 

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00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,400
Debased gold held the line. 
That's what gold does. 

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00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,400
It runs when the monetary system
is under pressure. 

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00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:30,000
But it doesn't run harder than 
the money printed against it. 

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00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,680
Gold is the seat belt. 
Bitcoin is the parachute. 

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00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:37,520
Bitcoin is is certainly at least
digital gold. 

190
00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:39,960
It's going to eat gold. 
It's got all of the great 

191
00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,320
attributes of gold and it's got 
none of the defects of gold. 

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00:09:43,680 --> 00:09:47,480
If you could teleport gold from 
New York to Tokyo in a in a few 

193
00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:51,840
minutes, people would like it. 
It's going to divert capital 

194
00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:56,120
from risk, risk assets and risk 
ETFs like SP Y. 

195
00:09:56,560 --> 00:10:00,400
And you can see that these these
ETFs are doing that. 

196
00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,520
It's going to be incorporated 
into a lot of funds like the 

197
00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,720
BlackRock Global Opportunities 
Fund or the Strategic Income 

198
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,280
Opportunities Fund. 
And so as it's an asset class, 

199
00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:12,960
as it goes into other funds, 
it's going to become structural.

200
00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:15,360
All the attributes, none of the 
defects. 

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00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:17,880
Gold can't teleport. 
Bitcoin can. 

202
00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,720
Gold custody takes armored 
trucks and vaults. 

203
00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:23,680
Bitcoin custody is a hardware 
wallet the size of a thumb 

204
00:10:23,680 --> 00:10:25,480
drive. 
Gold supply grows every year. 

205
00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:30,720
Miners dig more Bitcoin supplies
fixed at 21 million forever. 

206
00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:34,640
Bitcoin is a $2 trillion market 
cap in a $29 trillion room. 

207
00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,640
The capital that proved the 
thesis in gold will eventually 

208
00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,320
look for the asymmetric version 
of the same trade. 

209
00:10:40,560 --> 00:10:42,520
Bitcoin is that asymmetric 
version. 

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00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,440
The central banks already 
confirmed the thesis, they just 

211
00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,600
haven't made the second stop 
yet, as I mentioned. 

212
00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:50,280
Which brings me to the Bitcoin 
way. 

213
00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,960
If this thesis is landing for 
you, that holding your own hard 

214
00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:58,120
asset outside of the system that
can freeze them overnight is the

215
00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:01,440
right move and the 
bitcoinway.com is the next step.

216
00:11:01,680 --> 00:11:04,400
Their team walks you through 
complete Bitcoin self custody. 

217
00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:08,800
Not a YouTube tutorial, a real 
free 30 minute consultation. 

218
00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,600
If you go to 
thebitcoinway.com/beyond 

219
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:15,280
Bitcoin, meaning you mentioned 
us, you know you're watching the

220
00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:17,680
show, you get a free 30 minute 
consultation. 

221
00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:20,640
They'll teach you about hardware
wallets, setting up your own 

222
00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:23,720
node, full verification, and 
total sovereignty over your 

223
00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:25,160
stack. 
It's completely free. 

224
00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,880
So go to 
thebitcoinway.com/beyond 

225
00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,880
Bitcoin. 
That's the bitcoinway.com/beyond

226
00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:33,680
Bitcoin for your free 30 minute 
consultation. 

227
00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:35,680
Now let's talk about the 
strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

228
00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:39,120
One year ago today, March 6th, 
2025, President Trump signed the

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executive order. 
It's been sitting on his desk. 

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David Sacks posted it. 
Trump called it virtual Fort 

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Knox for digital gold and the 
Bitcoin community had its, you 

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know, revelatory moment. 
But today, that reserve still 

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doesn't legally exist. the US 
government allegedly holds 

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328,372 Bitcoin seized in 
criminal proceedings from Silk 

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Road and the bit the next hack, 
the executive order says hold 

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it, secure it, call it a 
reserve. 

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But the Treasury says they need 
Congress to codify it. 

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Now Congress has introduced 3 
bills, The Bitcoin Act which is 

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to buy 1,000,000 Bitcoin over 
the next five years, the Bitcoin

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for America Act which seems like
the same thing with a flag on 

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it, and HR 2112 which is to 
codify the order. 

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All three are sitting in 
committee. 

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The sovereigns didn't really 
show up. 

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You know, people were talking 
about the strategic Bitcoin 

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reserve a lot last year. 
I was on record saying I'm not 

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going to, you know, expect that 
really. 

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And then the other side is 
retail didn't really show up. 

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And instead the only real 
players this time were kind of 

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in the middle, the corporate 
institutional side, kind of 

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higher net worth retail that 
have a brokerage account and the

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ETFs opened up to them, made it,
made it easier, but not really 

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like a deluge of people buying 
Bitcoin, taking self custody of 

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it. 328,000 bitcoins sitting in 
U.S. government wallets. 

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At today's price, that's $22 
billion. 

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And they are actively choosing 
not to sell it. 

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That's not a coincidence. 
That's a position, an allegedly 

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excellent one. 
The paperwork isn't done, and 

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the reserve isn't official. 
But the Bitcoin is there, and it

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isn't moving right. 
It is there, right? 

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Every country watching this is 
running the same calculation 

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central banks ran about gold in 
2022. 

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If the US holds it and won't 
sell it, what do they know that 

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we should know? 
The reserve order is stalled. 

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The Bitcoin is not. 
So the original question, why 

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isn't Bitcoin at all time highs?
the Fed is frozen. 

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Global liquidity, the thing 
Bitcoin tracks 83% of the time, 

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is parked. 
No expansion, no new fuel. 

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So Bitcoin waits. 
Gold already ran. 

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Central banks figured out the 
hard asset thesis. 

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They moved while the Fed was 
frozen, bought the exit that 

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doesn't need permission, and in 
doing so confirmed the thesis 

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Bitcoin has been making for 15 
years. 

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The reserve is technically 
incomplete. 

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The reserve is technically 
incomplete. 

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The sovereign catalyst that was 
supposed to accelerate global 

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momentum is still winding 
through some kind of committee. 

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You know, fine, but 328,000 
bitcoins sit in U.S. government 

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wallets, allegedly. 
Take all three and the question 

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changes entirely. 
It isn't. 

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Why isn't Bitcoin at all time 
highs? 

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It's what happens when any of 
these shift. 

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If the Fed cuts, liquidity 
expands and Bitcoin follows the 

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M2 the way it has in every prior
cycle, with a lag and bigger 

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than expected. 
If the reserve gets codified, 

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that's a signal other nations 
run the calculation. 

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Lynn Alden has already run out 
loud and the capital, sitting in

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gold at 5000, starts asking 
where the asymmetric version of 

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this trade is, $2 trillion asset
in a $29 trillion room. 

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Remember fixed supply, no 
counterparty. 

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These aren't predictions, 
they're just what the thesis 

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says. 
And same thesis, central banks 

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already confirmed with gold. 
The same thesis the US 

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government confirmed by not 
selling 380,000 Bitcoin. 

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Bitcoin is at 69,000. 
Not because something broke. 

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Bitcoin is at 69,000 because the
Fed hasn't moved yet. 

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It's frozen and frozen means 
it's coiled. 

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Now I want to stop right here 
and give a shout out to 

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cluborange.org. 
That's formerly the orange Pill 

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00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,520
app. 
This is the premier app. 

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00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:31,400
If you want to connect with 
Bitcoiners in your local 

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proximity, you can have 
conversations about Bitcoin and 

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00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:40,320
macroeconomics, or you could 
just go grab a coffee and talk 

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00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,240
Bitcoin with someone near you. 
You can meet a new friend. 

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00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:47,720
So go to cluborange.org right 
now, sign up on the app, and you

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00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:52,640
can even reach out to me there. 
I'm at Oceans OSHINSI read all 

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my DMS and I respond 
accordingly. 

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I'll see you there. 
Here's what I keep coming back 

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to. the Fed says we're not in a 
hurry, and they mean it. 

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The economy is holding, 
inflation is sticky, but it's 

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manageable at the moment and 
there's no cuts. 

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Right, but not in a hurry. 
At the macro level. 

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Looks like $36 trillion in debt 
and one trillion a year in 

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interest. 
You can hold rates for a while, 

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but you can't hold the math. 
And when the math wins, when the

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Fed has to move because the 
alternative is worse, the assets

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best position aren't the ones 
waiting for a bill to pass. 

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They're the ones already mined, 
already in wallets, already 

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running on fixed schedule that 
doesn't need anyone's permission

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or anyone's hurry. 
The Fed is frozen not forever 

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though, just for now. 
So study Bitcoin. 

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Thank you so much for watching 
this video. 

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If you like what you see and you
want to see more, make sure you 

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00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,680
hit that like button below or 
you can subscribe to the simply 

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Bitcoin channel for more content
like this. 

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We're coming out with it every 
single day of the week. 

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Also do not forget to hit that 
notification bell or leave us a 

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comment, whatever you want to 
do. 

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00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,280
If you want to reach out to me 
directly, I'm run dance Bitcoin 

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00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:59,040
on X other than that, I'm 
oceans. 

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00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,400
This is beyond Bitcoin. 
Until next time.