1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,100 Of the, your lines is because there are reasonable steps they 2 00:00:03,100 --> 00:00:05,800 could have taken to avoid being what they are. 3 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:10,100 So if you could summarize how we can differentiate good 4 00:00:10,100 --> 00:00:14,700 politicians Tulsi gabbard's, the great example that I always use 5 00:00:15,100 --> 00:00:18,700 good well-meaning politicians, who sort of go astray versus 6 00:00:18,700 --> 00:00:21,900 evil politicians. So to start, I don't want to say 7 00:00:21,900 --> 00:00:23,600 that people are good. If they agree with me and bad, 8 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,100 if they don't, that's an unreasonably High bar. 9 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:29,200 It's pretty crazy and dogmatic. I want to come up with a 10 00:00:29,208 --> 00:00:31,500 standard. That would be plausible to a 11 00:00:31,500 --> 00:00:34,600 ride range of people regardless of their political views. 12 00:00:34,900 --> 00:00:41,500 And and so, what do you what I propose is is what I was really 13 00:00:41,500 --> 00:00:43,900 applying, what sort of sometimes called the Spider-Man principle? 14 00:00:43,900 --> 00:00:47,000 With great power, comes great responsibility, the for a 15 00:00:47,008 --> 00:00:51,400 politician actually goes and does something that is and does 16 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:53,800 something highly course, you others, like passing a law 17 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,400 saying, you've got to go and join the military whether you 18 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,800 like it or not, or says that it is illegal to build skyscrapers. 19 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,900 Or what have you do? They do, they actually try due 20 00:01:03,900 --> 00:01:06,200 diligence. Do they investigate. 21 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:08,000 What are the actual consequences, this? 22 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:09,200 How bad would it? Really be? 23 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:12,300 If we just didn't pass a law. What is it? 24 00:01:12,300 --> 00:01:14,600 Reasonable estimate of the benefits that we got out of 25 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:16,900 this? These are the kinds of steps 26 00:01:16,900 --> 00:01:20,600 that any decent person would take before they went and did 27 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:23,400 what politics is all about, which is essentially pointing a 28 00:01:23,408 --> 00:01:25,500 gun at people's heads. And saying, if you don't do 29 00:01:25,500 --> 00:01:28,200 this, we will put you in jail. If you don't like that, what you 30 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,100 will kill you, right? So it's either Spider-Man. 31 00:01:31,100 --> 00:01:33,100 Principal with great power. Comes great responsibility. 32 00:01:33,100 --> 00:01:35,300 Seems super reasonable to me. I don't see that there's 33 00:01:35,300 --> 00:01:40,400 anything, especially partisan or sectarian about it. 34 00:01:40,700 --> 00:01:43,200 Something that I think almost anyone should agree with before 35 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:46,500 you go and start talking about killing a person or putting them 36 00:01:46,500 --> 00:01:51,600 in jail, it behooves you to see whether the whether there's 37 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:56,000 actually a lot of large excess of benefits over costs and then 38 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:58,600 it comes down to hardly any politician does this. 39 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:02,700 Obviously, Almost no politician puts any severe severe and 40 00:02:02,700 --> 00:02:05,000 serious amount of work into investigating this stuff. 41 00:02:05,300 --> 00:02:08,900 The most you can really count on to do is to go and read some 42 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,500 pieces that say what the politician already wanted to 43 00:02:11,500 --> 00:02:14,800 hear the amount of pain that I'm politician, spend reading things 44 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,300 that say that they're wrong or just reading social science, 45 00:02:17,300 --> 00:02:20,700 journals or even just acquiring familiarity with the evidence 46 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,500 just basic numeracy, right? You see. 47 00:02:23,500 --> 00:02:25,900 Very little sign that politicians actually do that and 48 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:29,500 of course not because they can get power without doing it now. 49 00:02:29,500 --> 00:02:31,400 If You say well, I mean it's their job. 50 00:02:31,700 --> 00:02:33,800 Yeah. Well, that's the excuse of a 51 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:35,500 whole lot of horrible people in the world. 52 00:02:36,300 --> 00:02:39,900 You can say, hey well, it was my job to go and execute those 53 00:02:39,900 --> 00:02:42,200 innocent people. So don't blame me. 54 00:02:42,500 --> 00:02:44,500 There's my job to run the slave labor camp. 55 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,600 No, that is not a good enough. Excuse, an excuse that. 56 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,700 I am happy to entertain is. No. 57 00:02:50,700 --> 00:02:53,000 I went and kill those prisoners because I would have been killed 58 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,000 by my Superior officer if I hadn't killed them. 59 00:02:55,900 --> 00:02:58,400 That's one right yet, I can get to be pretty dogmatic to say. 60 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,000 Now, you should have just let him kill you Lisa say, alright. 61 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,200 I think that's a pretty good, pretty good point if true. 62 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,600 But then the question is, is it really true that you would have 63 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:07,300 been killed? But if you had from disobey the 64 00:03:07,300 --> 00:03:09,600 order, maybe just would have been yelled at it. 65 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,000 Maybe just would have been teased, right? 66 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,800 There's a book from about 25 years ago now, Hitler's willing 67 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,100 Executioner's and basically looked at the question when 68 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:23,000 Germans that were working in death camps and other such parts 69 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:26,800 of the Nazi Empire disobey, Orders to go and murder 70 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:28,000 civilians. What happened to them? 71 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,200 And the general answer was nothing. 72 00:03:31,500 --> 00:03:33,700 They were not shot, they were not themselves, but in slave 73 00:03:33,700 --> 00:03:37,400 labor camps, the worst that happened was they got a Stern 74 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,900 talking-to. Like you realize that if old 75 00:03:39,900 --> 00:03:42,000 Germans were to have this disobedient out of food, it 76 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,500 could be of serious harm and Envoy effort. 77 00:03:44,700 --> 00:03:48,600 So now we are going murder. Those children know you really 78 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:50,900 disappoint me. You might have to be transferred 79 00:03:50,900 --> 00:03:53,500 over to another part of the war effort now. 80 00:03:53,900 --> 00:03:55,200 Okay. Well, this is going to look 81 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,700 really am Balancing for us. But that is pretty much what was 82 00:03:58,700 --> 00:04:02,900 going on and this is where I will say, if your excuse is he 83 00:04:02,900 --> 00:04:04,900 wanted murdered innocent people because you didn't want your 84 00:04:04,900 --> 00:04:09,000 Superior officer to talk to you like that, tough luck like that 85 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,500 is it and that is not a reasonable excuse that someone 86 00:04:11,500 --> 00:04:14,500 was going to go and look down on you for failing to murder and 87 00:04:14,500 --> 00:04:18,000 some people. So they're like the worst public 88 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:20,899 service that you do you do it or I will kill you. 89 00:04:20,899 --> 00:04:24,100 All right that's where it's like G like you can really under you 90 00:04:24,100 --> 00:04:26,400 can really understand why a person Do a terrible thing in 91 00:04:26,407 --> 00:04:29,600 that situation and say at least it's complicated as to how much 92 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,200 you want to blame them, but if it's just you are real duck 93 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:34,400 down. Hans. 94 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:40,200 That's where it's like. Well, okay, well, I'd rather let 95 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,900 you down and go and murder people so no 999. 96 00:04:45,900 --> 00:04:49,100 Yeah, you would think that they actually have some Allegiance 97 00:04:49,100 --> 00:04:52,600 after they're always saying I served and I serve the public 98 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:54,600 and I'm here to serve you. You'd think they'd have some 99 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,900 allegiance to us. But every time I try, bossing 100 00:04:56,900 --> 00:04:59,200 them around, I'm a, I'm an evil terrorists. 101 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,300 They boss me around that next time. 102 00:05:01,300 --> 00:05:04,100 I keep, I keep forgetting. Next time I talk to an officer. 103 00:05:04,100 --> 00:05:07,200 I'm going to say I was hired to be a drug dealer. 104 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:10,300 I was a hired assassin. So I was just following orders. 105 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:13,000 I need to enter a woman's right, Keith. 106 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,500 It's just put it on the blog or a podcast. 107 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,000 I know Foster Michael humor. Once tried to philosophize his 108 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:24,200 way out of a ticket that he got, I think for running a red light 109 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:27,200 in the middle of the night. Did get the guy to engage the 110 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,200 argument of it CLI. The point of well no one was 111 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:31,600 around. So what difference does it make? 112 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,000 If I run the red light, I check to make sure no one was coming. 113 00:05:34,300 --> 00:05:37,000 You were just hiding there with your lights off and the guys 114 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:40,100 like well you know if you have people can break the law, when 115 00:05:40,100 --> 00:05:42,800 it's totally, there's no reason at all to keep it. 116 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:45,100 Then they might start breaking really good laws and it's like 117 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:49,100 seems unlikely, right? But he wasn't able to talk his 118 00:05:49,100 --> 00:05:51,600 way out of the ticket and the cop said, oh God. 119 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,900 Did you write Paradox? Lost on that here? 120 00:05:53,900 --> 00:05:56,300 Goodbye you win. Yeah. 121 00:05:56,300 --> 00:05:58,600 All right at least like he didn't get arrested or anything. 122 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,200 I would have if I was in the car I'd be like to shut up. 123 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:06,300 Shut up, it's scary. I was on the other end of talk 124 00:06:06,300 --> 00:06:10,100 my way out of multiple tickets. How would you do it? 125 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:12,600 Always involving. There's a bunch of kids in my 126 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:18,400 car and I just, I don't, I don't argue, I looked at it with 127 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:23,900 pitiful. And at a super apologetic, super 128 00:06:23,900 --> 00:06:26,500 obsequious. Like it's that's got like a 129 00:06:26,500 --> 00:06:29,000 tooth or success rate for me. But it does require to having 130 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,400 kids in the car. I was wondering what makes 131 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,700 people care about some death and not others. 132 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:40,200 So, when it comes to the My Lai Massacre covid, deaths, Waco, 133 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:44,400 Eric Garner bombing of Dresden, King Leopold, Ashley Babbitt, 134 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:46,800 everyone. You could find someone saying 135 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,800 these deaths are tragic but very few with the exception of 136 00:06:49,808 --> 00:06:52,000 Libertarians. Will say, all of those involved 137 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:54,400 in initiating violence against peaceful people in there for our 138 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,100 morale. You have a chapter, tell me the 139 00:06:57,100 --> 00:07:01,400 difference between My Lai Massacre and Hiroshima, what are 140 00:07:01,407 --> 00:07:03,900 your thoughts on that in this book, right? 141 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,300 So of course, to back up, it does require that people have 142 00:07:06,300 --> 00:07:11,200 heard of maile. This was a war crime committed 143 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,000 by American soldiers, in a Vietnamese village. 144 00:07:14,100 --> 00:07:18,700 Where the exact either I got details of the chain of command 145 00:07:18,700 --> 00:07:21,200 and run clear but what is definitely known is that the 146 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,300 commander on site ordered his soldiers to kill every one of 147 00:07:24,300 --> 00:07:26,900 the village? And then the reason we know 148 00:07:26,900 --> 00:07:30,400 about is there was one guy who disobeyed orders and went and 149 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,500 And some of the people in his helicopter and flew away, and I 150 00:07:33,500 --> 00:07:34,900 think he actually risked his own life. 151 00:07:34,900 --> 00:07:37,300 I think he actually did Point his guns back is some American 152 00:07:37,300 --> 00:07:41,000 soldiers who said to hand over all of the civilians in the 153 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,100 village and he refused and rescue them. 154 00:07:44,100 --> 00:07:50,200 So anyway, is that Hugh Thompson, you like I would dive 155 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,600 honestly, I don't remember the names of the people involved. 156 00:07:52,700 --> 00:07:55,600 I'm sorry interests of heroism and villainy right? 157 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:59,900 But anyway, now Hiroshima, I hope most people are watching 158 00:07:59,900 --> 00:08:02,500 this of heard of That. So the u.s. dropped atomic bomb 159 00:08:02,500 --> 00:08:04,900 on Hiroshima. First time that her an atomic 160 00:08:04,900 --> 00:08:08,500 bomb was used on human beings. Second time was Nagasaki, of 161 00:08:08,500 --> 00:08:12,600 course, right now, most people are strongly convinced with her 162 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:15,700 Oshima was fine and that maile was terrible. 163 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,000 Although at the time it's worth pointing out that a lot of 164 00:08:18,008 --> 00:08:20,800 people were claiming that the Americans who murdered all the 165 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,200 people are heroes and that the guy who rescues the people was a 166 00:08:23,207 --> 00:08:26,600 traitor. Eventually, the facts came out 167 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:30,400 and they were so horrifying. And so blatant that it does that 168 00:08:30,500 --> 00:08:34,100 Like, leaking out the, the guy, The Rescuer did not go to jail, 169 00:08:34,100 --> 00:08:36,700 at least. And the perpetrator God, I think 170 00:08:36,700 --> 00:08:39,100 like some years of house arrest, right? 171 00:08:39,100 --> 00:08:42,600 Rather than just being summarily shot as a war criminal, which 172 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:43,799 would have been the sensible thing. 173 00:08:43,799 --> 00:08:48,000 But anyway, the point of that essays, I just go through. 174 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,500 So what are some, what are some reasons? 175 00:08:50,500 --> 00:08:52,300 Why people think that Roshan was okay? 176 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:54,300 Because it starts off with saying, well, we were just going 177 00:08:54,300 --> 00:08:56,600 in bombing enemy soldiers and that's totally untrue. 178 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,200 And you can check that pretty easily. 179 00:08:58,500 --> 00:09:01,000 And then the next one is, well, look, We want to kill some 180 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,000 soldiers and unfortunately there were whole lot of civilians 181 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,200 nearby. So we didn't have any convenient 182 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,700 way of going and just just killing soldiers so we killed 183 00:09:07,700 --> 00:09:08,900 them. All right. 184 00:09:08,900 --> 00:09:10,600 But then you go to My Lai and here's the problem. 185 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,900 We've got some Grill infiltration, The Village. 186 00:09:13,300 --> 00:09:15,700 So yeah if you want to make sure that you get the gorillas then 187 00:09:15,700 --> 00:09:18,300 you better just kill everyone in the village and yet this is one 188 00:09:18,300 --> 00:09:20,100 or like now you can't just murder everyone at Villages 189 00:09:20,100 --> 00:09:22,900 because there's a few unknown gorillas there and you say, 190 00:09:22,900 --> 00:09:26,000 well, but there's collaboration between the civilians and the 191 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:29,100 gorillas well, between some of them, not all of them. 192 00:09:29,300 --> 00:09:31,200 The kids aren't involved in the Collaboration. 193 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,900 So you're going to go and kill all the kids to, that's okay, 194 00:09:34,500 --> 00:09:36,400 right. So basically just try to walk 195 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,400 through different stories that people are given about the 196 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,400 differences between the two. I mean, other one is just well 197 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,500 gross men did the war maile didn't looks like yeah. 198 00:09:44,500 --> 00:09:47,500 Well but what if you knew that doing a thousand my lace would 199 00:09:47,500 --> 00:09:50,300 end the war then would it be okay to go and do that kind of 200 00:09:50,300 --> 00:09:53,900 thing, right? And in this is one little, guess 201 00:09:53,900 --> 00:09:56,300 not. But well in that case we're back 202 00:09:56,300 --> 00:09:58,800 to wondering what's different about Hiroshima. 203 00:10:00,900 --> 00:10:04,700 You have a chapter called The Common Sense case for pacifism. 204 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,600 What is pacifism, please give us the bullet points on why you are 205 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:09,900 a pacifist. Right? 206 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,900 Well so like sexism you can go to the dictionary and there are 207 00:10:12,900 --> 00:10:16,100 a couple different definitions but in the case of pacifism I'll 208 00:10:16,100 --> 00:10:19,600 say that there's not one definition that is overwhelming 209 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:21,800 for feminism. I think that it is actually 210 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:24,200 overwhelming that almost everyone who taught who talks 211 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:26,400 about it. They mean, the view that women 212 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:28,200 are treated less. Very in our society, the men, 213 00:10:28,500 --> 00:10:30,600 the case of pacifism, there's what you go, absolute path. 214 00:10:30,700 --> 00:10:33,300 Abysm say you should never use violence for any reason but 215 00:10:33,300 --> 00:10:36,200 another one of the dictionary is just opposition to war, right? 216 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:40,100 I am not a pacifist in the first sense so I am fully in favor of 217 00:10:40,100 --> 00:10:43,300 actual self. Defense IL in principle, I think 218 00:10:43,300 --> 00:10:45,200 the death penalty is great. It's just a matter of practical 219 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,200 matter about whether or not you can actually make it work in a 220 00:10:48,208 --> 00:10:51,300 given system, right? But like, if I could have 221 00:10:51,300 --> 00:10:53,600 executed Hitler the end of World War Two then. 222 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:57,200 Yeah, absolutely no question. Good luck young just local 223 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:00,600 Hillside. Where would where is he around? 224 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,900 Good to go. All right box of pasta business, 225 00:11:04,900 --> 00:11:08,200 sense of opposition to war. This is where I do say that. 226 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:10,300 I'm a pacifist. I mean, I got thinking about 227 00:11:10,300 --> 00:11:12,300 this, because there were so many Libertarians who say their 228 00:11:12,300 --> 00:11:16,400 isolationist, and then I see, well, that doesn't really fit 229 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,800 what I think in a passivism, is really much more accurate 230 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:22,200 because isolationist indicates. Well, I'm willing to go and 231 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:27,000 fight in the case of national self-defense for example, or or 232 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,400 in the case of a civil war, then maybe that would not be ruled 233 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,300 out by isolationism. And so yeah, here's what I say 234 00:11:32,300 --> 00:11:34,800 about passivism to look. I have an actual argument. 235 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:38,500 So this is not the kind of thing where I say I feel something and 236 00:11:38,500 --> 00:11:40,800 then some people say I feel differently, this is one where I 237 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:42,700 say. Look I've got premises the 238 00:11:42,700 --> 00:11:46,800 premises lead, logically do conclusion and if you disagree 239 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,100 with conclusion you must tell me which premise you disagree with 240 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:51,900 It's that kind of an argument, right? 241 00:11:51,900 --> 00:11:54,400 Which is, of course the kind of argument that I like, it's the 242 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,200 kind that I believe in. It's what I dedicate my life to 243 00:11:57,700 --> 00:11:58,900 all right. And again, of course, a good 244 00:11:58,900 --> 00:12:01,600 argument is one where those premises are hard to just throw 245 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:03,600 away, right? Ones. 246 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:07,500 Re say, mmm, these premises are not just something that only 247 00:12:07,500 --> 00:12:09,800 Brian believes or something that almost everybody believes and 248 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:12,200 they seemed to lead to a conclusion, I don't believe 249 00:12:12,300 --> 00:12:13,600 whatever. Imagine like to do. 250 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,900 So the premises of the argument are versus follows. 251 00:12:19,500 --> 00:12:23,600 The let's say let's switch that loose, which the simplest way of 252 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:27,400 putting it. All right, so premise one of the 253 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,100 short-run costs of War are really bad. 254 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:33,900 All right, the short-run costs were all really, really bad. 255 00:12:34,100 --> 00:12:36,100 Yeah, a lot of people died destruction. 256 00:12:36,500 --> 00:12:38,800 Right, so you've got that and all right, so you've got that 257 00:12:39,100 --> 00:12:42,100 right now. Secondly, long-run benefits are 258 00:12:42,100 --> 00:12:45,500 uncertain. It is very common for someone to 259 00:12:45,500 --> 00:12:47,800 fight a war claiming it's going to lead to great good and guess 260 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:48,700 what? It doesn't. 261 00:12:49,100 --> 00:12:51,100 We're one was the war to end all wars. 262 00:12:51,300 --> 00:12:54,100 It really was. All right and that was wrong, 263 00:12:54,700 --> 00:12:56,500 right? How or more recently, let's take 264 00:12:56,500 --> 00:12:58,900 a look at how well Iraq and Afghanistan, have gone. 265 00:12:59,500 --> 00:13:02,600 We were promised that they would be turned into civilized Western 266 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,900 democracies more or less, and that didn't happen. 267 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:08,600 All right, so the long-term out, this is not mean that they never 268 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:10,900 happen. The Korean war did actually 269 00:13:10,900 --> 00:13:13,400 leave the South Korea, being a way better country. 270 00:13:13,500 --> 00:13:16,300 Tree the North Korea and the absence of probably whole thing 271 00:13:16,300 --> 00:13:18,500 would have in North Korea. The point is just that there's 272 00:13:18,500 --> 00:13:21,600 high in certainty. Then the next premise, is that 273 00:13:21,900 --> 00:13:27,100 before you go and murder or negligently kill innocent people 274 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:31,600 You should have high confidence that there will be a large 275 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,900 excess of benefits over costs. Right? 276 00:13:34,900 --> 00:13:40,800 So, that is key that comes down to a thought, experiment that 277 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:42,800 has been done many times sometimes called the force 278 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,100 bergenholm, organ donation, hypothetical, which just says 279 00:13:46,100 --> 00:13:47,200 look, right. You're a doctor. 280 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:49,300 You do organ transplants to save lives. 281 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,000 Got five patients. Each patient needs, a different 282 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,700 organ to save their life. One needs a liver. 283 00:13:54,700 --> 00:13:56,100 When these lungs, one needs a heart. 284 00:13:56,100 --> 00:13:59,100 And so, on perfectly healthy guy, walks by, he has no 285 00:13:59,100 --> 00:14:02,400 friends, no family, no one will ever miss him, would it be all 286 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:04,400 right for you to murder him and harvest his organs? 287 00:14:04,500 --> 00:14:08,200 To save your high patience. Almost everyone says now. 288 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,800 If you raise the numbers up a lot enough than many people 289 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,000 change their minds but five isn't enough so he's all right. 290 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,000 Well this shows that if we're talking about murdering innocent 291 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,900 people, we've got to have at least a five to one benefit cost 292 00:14:20,900 --> 00:14:23,300 ratio. Right in the final point is 293 00:14:23,300 --> 00:14:25,000 people say well, I mean like we're not killing innocent 294 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,800 people. Modern Warfare always involves 295 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,300 the motoring or negligent killing of Innocents because the 296 00:14:30,300 --> 00:14:32,500 weapons are just too indiscriminate to not do it. 297 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:35,500 All right. So anyway, snap all these 298 00:14:35,500 --> 00:14:38,600 premises together and it seems like there's a very strong 299 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:43,900 presumption opposed to war really in order to have it 300 00:14:43,900 --> 00:14:47,400 Justified War, you need to be able to reasonably say This Is 301 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,700 War where we have such strong knowledge of its future 302 00:14:50,700 --> 00:14:53,800 consequences that we know with a lot of confidence that there 303 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:58,200 will be over 5 times benefits, the benefits will be over five 304 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,300 times the cost right now. This is a claim you can always 305 00:15:01,300 --> 00:15:03,700 make but then it's like, all right well let's just go and 306 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:05,200 look at your record, a prediction. 307 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:06,600 How good is your record prediction of this? 308 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:08,500 Kind of thing. We know from the work of 309 00:15:08,500 --> 00:15:09,500 political psychologist. Philip. 310 00:15:09,500 --> 00:15:12,500 Tetlock that even experts, level of prediction of this kind is 311 00:15:12,500 --> 00:15:16,800 extremely poor and so it is just not reasonable to think that 312 00:15:17,100 --> 00:15:19,400 that that people have this kind of knowledge. 313 00:15:20,900 --> 00:15:24,400 Yeah, and even in Obama's book, Promised Land, he still brags 314 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,200 about Libya, and then minimizes the very end of it. 315 00:15:28,300 --> 00:15:31,600 Even the war for Polish Independence, declared September 316 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:35,400 3rd of 1939 ended with the giving Poland to the Soviets. 317 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,700 So, I mean, we just need so much humility in, in this Arena. 318 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:43,700 I'm so thankful for your time. Have two more quick questions. 319 00:15:45,700 --> 00:15:50,900 You have a monopolizing Petty, Sighs. 320 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,800 How can you support Free Speech when so many people are 321 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:59,200 unreliable and dishonest, right? So just to back out the point of 322 00:15:59,208 --> 00:16:02,900 the essay monopolize, the Pretty Lies is this what is the main 323 00:16:02,900 --> 00:16:04,900 point of censorship in a dictatorship? 324 00:16:05,700 --> 00:16:08,900 If you're a big or well fan like me your knee-jerk reaction is 325 00:16:08,900 --> 00:16:10,400 the point is to suppress the truth. 326 00:16:11,300 --> 00:16:14,500 Sorry to that is a thing that dictators do but if you pay 327 00:16:14,500 --> 00:16:17,500 attention to what happens when you relax censorship the main 328 00:16:17,500 --> 00:16:19,400 thing isn't that a lot of truths come out? 329 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,300 The main thing is that I'm competing politicians show up, 330 00:16:22,300 --> 00:16:24,400 and they start spinning their own ridiculous lies. 331 00:16:24,900 --> 00:16:28,000 So, right now in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, only the 332 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:31,200 government gets to say we're ordained by God and we are great 333 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:33,700 and this and we are the greatest rulers wherever wonderful. 334 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,400 Now, if they were relaxed, the censorship, what would happen? 335 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,400 Would it be a bunch of rationalist come along and start 336 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:40,900 going? And saying, well, let's go and 337 00:16:40,900 --> 00:16:44,600 consider some criticism of the Koran and like what that implies 338 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,700 for. But that implies for Sharia law, 339 00:16:47,900 --> 00:16:50,100 much more likely there would be some Fanatics will come along 340 00:16:50,100 --> 00:16:53,000 and say no. No, we ordained by God and he is 341 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,000 ordained us to take over this country and kill you and kill. 342 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,800 You horrible reprobates Who present yourself as friends of 343 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,000 Islam. That's what God really wants. 344 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,900 And in fact, you probably see 20 different guys claiming to have 345 00:17:03,900 --> 00:17:06,900 a pipeline to God, right? So you realize a lot of what 346 00:17:06,900 --> 00:17:10,300 censorship is about is about crushing other Liars. 347 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,500 You want to be the only people, they're able to say where this 348 00:17:13,500 --> 00:17:15,500 is the greatest country in the world because it's ruled by me 349 00:17:15,500 --> 00:17:17,400 because I'm so great. You don't want anyone else. 350 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,099 People say that kind of stuff. All right, now. 351 00:17:20,599 --> 00:17:22,900 So this is my story about the point of the main point of 352 00:17:22,908 --> 00:17:25,099 censorship. It is just that only the people 353 00:17:25,099 --> 00:17:29,800 in power can go and weaponize this ridiculous rhetoric. 354 00:17:30,500 --> 00:17:32,500 Now, given this how can I do that? 355 00:17:32,500 --> 00:17:34,500 Find free speech. So I think I got another piece. 356 00:17:34,500 --> 00:17:38,200 We're basically amounts to one cheer for free speech and I 357 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,100 said, like them. Like you can't really say, you 358 00:17:40,100 --> 00:17:42,900 can't say the Free Speech, leaves the truth, I just it's 359 00:17:42,900 --> 00:17:46,600 not correct me like you know, like obviously if Free Speech 360 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:48,600 led to truth and they were just be one religious view on the 361 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:50,400 planet by Now. And guess what? 362 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,900 There's not they'd be one political view on the planet. 363 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,400 There isn't so on right to free speech led to truth. 364 00:17:56,400 --> 00:18:00,600 Then basically, as soon as you open things up, then the most 365 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:02,600 evidence-based views would suddenly become popular. 366 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,500 And again, anyone who is familiar with evidence knows 367 00:18:05,500 --> 00:18:08,900 that it's not true. All right, so what is the best 368 00:18:08,900 --> 00:18:10,200 defense of free speech to the best? 369 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:14,000 Defense is just that free speech allows some people to figure out 370 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,800 the truth. It prevents the suppression of 371 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,800 the minority of people that want to actually figure things out. 372 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:23,800 That's what we've got. We can't say that at least the 373 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:25,800 truth. We can't say that in the end. 374 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,600 Everything works out. What we can say is that free 375 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,700 speech is what allows the narrow segment society that cares about 376 00:18:32,700 --> 00:18:34,200 truth to keep doing what they're doing. 377 00:18:35,900 --> 00:18:40,300 I had a discussion with a woman the other day and she was very 378 00:18:40,300 --> 00:18:44,600 upset, that Trump has still not been arrested after having 379 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,800 documents, he should not have had in Marla go. 380 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,900 She's also very upset about January 6 and the Ukrainian 381 00:18:50,900 --> 00:18:53,900 collusion phone call. And I mentioned to her, I said, 382 00:18:54,100 --> 00:18:57,600 you know, if you really want to knock out punch against Trump, I 383 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,700 absolutely have it for you and I, yeah, I got her. 384 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:04,800 I actually dedicated this blog post to her where Trump actually 385 00:19:04,900 --> 00:19:10,700 He has killed thousands of civilians across Iraq, Syria, 86 386 00:19:10,700 --> 00:19:14,700 civilians, in one month alone in Yemen and I go. 387 00:19:14,900 --> 00:19:17,300 So all of this has to be something like a hundred 388 00:19:17,300 --> 00:19:21,500 thousand times worse than any call, he made to Ukraine about, 389 00:19:21,500 --> 00:19:25,700 you know, Hunter Biden's laptop and she could not have been less 390 00:19:25,700 --> 00:19:29,200 interested in what I was saying. And then I tried it with another 391 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,000 person, then I said, hey, if you guys really want to get Obama, 392 00:19:32,100 --> 00:19:34,800 the anti-war president, you know, that he is. 393 00:19:34,900 --> 00:19:37,800 Like helping out the Saudis and gave them the green light for a 394 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,600 war in Yemen, and all this other stuff. 395 00:19:39,900 --> 00:19:43,100 Why is it that people don't care about the major things in 396 00:19:43,100 --> 00:19:47,200 politics, but care about the petty things because it's often 397 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,800 easier to be emotional about a petty thing than about a major 398 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:51,200 thing. Especially if the major thing is 399 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:56,100 numerical and the petty thing is personal I thought see like this 400 00:19:56,100 --> 00:19:59,700 is a very general feature of human psychology that Stalin 401 00:19:59,700 --> 00:20:02,800 allegedly said, one death is a tragedy million deficit has a 402 00:20:02,808 --> 00:20:05,200 statistic. If he did say it, I don't think 403 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:06,500 we got any real evidence that he did. 404 00:20:06,500 --> 00:20:10,400 It's one of the most insightful things that Stalin said IDs this 405 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,500 is basic human psychology, you know, yours watching a movie if 406 00:20:13,500 --> 00:20:15,400 you want to get people on the edge of their seats. 407 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,000 Do you go and show a city? Getting bombed in a million 408 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:22,600 people dying from mile up. No, you go and move the camera 409 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:26,000 into the crib. And show the baby burning alive. 410 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:27,500 That's the kind of thing that you show to get people 411 00:20:27,500 --> 00:20:31,500 emotionally affected. So that's one big part of it, in 412 00:20:31,500 --> 00:20:33,300 politics. And not another part, of course, 413 00:20:33,300 --> 00:20:35,600 is people just care much less about foreigners than about, and 414 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,000 then about people their own country. 415 00:20:37,300 --> 00:20:42,400 If you would said that Trump had had killed thousands of innocent 416 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,700 Americans, that would been the other thing that we've got a 417 00:20:44,700 --> 00:20:47,500 much stronger reaction. So there's that. 418 00:20:47,700 --> 00:20:50,000 And then there's also just a general view well, look, you 419 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,800 know, like their leaders world leaders Wars stuff is going to 420 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,400 happen, so you You got against people and thing honestly, on 421 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,700 something like that. People realize, what your kind 422 00:20:58,700 --> 00:21:00,700 of leading me into a trap, because if I go and condemn, 423 00:21:00,700 --> 00:21:03,100 Trump for going and killing some innocent civilians in Yemen, 424 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,600 then you could also say that Obama is a monster because he 425 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,800 went and killed a bunch of innocent people and I got, but I 426 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,700 love Obama. He's my guy. 427 00:21:11,300 --> 00:21:14,100 So I'm not going to let you trick me by taking me down this 428 00:21:14,700 --> 00:21:16,600 this path. I'm going to focus on something 429 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,200 that only can be said about the guy that I dislike and can't be 430 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,800 said about the guy that I like right. 431 00:21:22,900 --> 00:21:24,700 You know, mean on top of this, of course people are just very 432 00:21:24,700 --> 00:21:27,000 able to have a big double standard. 433 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,900 This is where Orwell's totally spot-on as it usually is 434 00:21:29,900 --> 00:21:32,800 political double. Think people are very capable of 435 00:21:32,808 --> 00:21:35,800 holding contradictory views the same time for the issues that 436 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:39,200 they're emotionally affected. Emotionally invested in like 437 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,900 politics like religion. The books are, how evil are 438 00:21:43,900 --> 00:21:47,200 politicians, essays on demagoguery also. 439 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,700 Don't be a feminist dr. Bryan Caplan. 440 00:21:50,700 --> 00:21:52,100 Thank you so much for another time. 441 00:21:52,100 --> 00:21:55,300 Yes, the books can both be purchased on Amazon for the 442 00:21:55,300 --> 00:21:59,300 still inflation, unadjusted price of 12 bucks, for the 443 00:21:59,300 --> 00:22:01,700 paperback and 999 for the e-book. 444 00:22:02,300 --> 00:22:04,300 So I hope that you check them out. 445 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,200 Links will be in the description. 446 00:22:07,300 --> 00:22:08,700 Take Care. Thank you.