1 00:00:00,500 --> 00:00:02,900 Welcome to Keith's night. Don't try it on anyone in the 2 00:00:02,900 --> 00:00:05,500 libertarian Institute today. I am joined by. 3 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:09,400 Abigail are Hall. She is an associate professor in 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:13,700 economics at the University of Tampa, she has her PhD in 5 00:00:13,700 --> 00:00:16,600 economics from George Mason University. 6 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,500 Check out manufacturing militarism US. 7 00:00:19,500 --> 00:00:23,700 Government propaganda in the war on terror as well as tyranny 8 00:00:23,700 --> 00:00:27,400 comes home. The domestic fate of US. 9 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,100 Military is MM, dr. Hall, thank you so much for your 10 00:00:30,100 --> 00:00:30,600 time. Time. 11 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:32,900 Thank you so much for having me. It's a pleasure to be back. 12 00:00:33,300 --> 00:00:35,900 What was your dissertation on and was it under Walter 13 00:00:35,900 --> 00:00:38,000 Williams? No, so I actually wrote my 14 00:00:38,008 --> 00:00:41,400 dissertation under Chris coin, Walter Williams. 15 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:42,900 And I agreed on very many things. 16 00:00:42,900 --> 00:00:45,600 However, I think we diverged pretty starkly on matters of 17 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:49,700 foreign policy. My doctoral research was on the 18 00:00:49,700 --> 00:00:53,100 political economy of unmanned aerial vehicles or what are 19 00:00:53,100 --> 00:00:56,800 colloquially known as drones. So looking at it. 20 00:00:57,100 --> 00:00:59,300 Yeah. So looking at how uavs were used 21 00:01:00,100 --> 00:01:03,000 within the war on terror? Kind of the the development of 22 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:07,700 the political entanglement so thinking about your big defense 23 00:01:07,700 --> 00:01:11,300 contractors how do those relationships between say the 24 00:01:11,300 --> 00:01:13,200 likes of Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. 25 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:18,000 How do those become entrenched or entangled with say members of 26 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:22,000 Congress or other political outfits and then understanding 27 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,800 how it is that those Technologies may continue to be 28 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:27,300 used. Despite the fact that contrary 29 00:01:27,300 --> 00:01:30,700 to the popular narrative, they may not actually be as effective 30 00:01:30,700 --> 00:01:32,600 as proponents would have them be. 31 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:36,000 It's amazing. We have a World War Two General 32 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,900 and President Dwight Eisenhower. Tell us, watch out for the 33 00:01:38,900 --> 00:01:42,200 military-industrial complex and we're still called crazy 34 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,300 conspiracy theorist for thinking that, you know, there's a profit 35 00:01:45,300 --> 00:01:47,400 incentive to what to be made in war. 36 00:01:47,700 --> 00:01:51,600 It's, there's incredible research there, but if people 37 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:55,000 want to find your dissertation is that available online. 38 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:56,900 Yes. So it's, um, it's publicly 39 00:01:56,900 --> 00:01:58,400 available. I'm sure that it's through 40 00:01:58,500 --> 00:02:01,100 George Mason. One of the easiest ways to find 41 00:02:01,100 --> 00:02:04,500 pretty much. All of my work is ssrn.com, so 42 00:02:04,500 --> 00:02:06,400 you can download. But I think pretty much most of 43 00:02:06,408 --> 00:02:10,000 the papers that I've ever written for, for free. 44 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:13,800 The other way that people can find at least links to some 45 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:15,900 things and was also on my website. 46 00:02:15,900 --> 00:02:19,400 Abigail are hall.com? Both of those links will be in 47 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,700 the description below. What I wanted to ask you about 48 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,600 was one of the great propaganda methods. 49 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,700 It's is to sell things under the guise of there, only being 50 00:02:28,700 --> 00:02:31,900 benefits. Should we bring democracy to the 51 00:02:31,900 --> 00:02:34,200 Middle East? Should we defend Ukraine? 52 00:02:34,500 --> 00:02:39,300 As if there's no downside, when it comes to the domestic costs 53 00:02:39,300 --> 00:02:42,300 of War, before we get into the foreign calls, what are some of 54 00:02:42,300 --> 00:02:47,400 the downsides or costs that the American population has to Bear 55 00:02:47,500 --> 00:02:50,100 because of an aggressive foreign policy? 56 00:02:50,700 --> 00:02:53,900 So there are lots of things that people talk about in terms of 57 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,300 cost and consequences of. Conflict. 58 00:02:56,300 --> 00:02:58,800 And so you pointed out that oftentimes the people are 59 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:02,100 talking about the cost of foreign policy, there's a 60 00:03:02,108 --> 00:03:06,300 tendency to focus on either the monetary cost but then also 61 00:03:06,300 --> 00:03:08,600 people will talk about the the human cost. 62 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,800 So things like the number of US military personnel who are 63 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,900 killed or who are injured while engaged in foreign intervention 64 00:03:14,900 --> 00:03:17,800 abroad and those things are certainly important. 65 00:03:18,100 --> 00:03:21,200 But if you're only looking at metrics that you can easily 66 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:25,500 count, then you're downplaying. A lot of other elements that are 67 00:03:25,500 --> 00:03:28,900 are Critically important for understanding the actual 68 00:03:28,900 --> 00:03:33,500 consequences of foreign policy and so what my co-author. 69 00:03:33,500 --> 00:03:38,300 And I so Chris coin in one of our books tyranny, comes home, 70 00:03:38,500 --> 00:03:43,300 talk specifically about the other types of consequences or 71 00:03:43,300 --> 00:03:46,200 some of the other consequences of foreign intervention 72 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:48,800 particularly within the domestic sphere. 73 00:03:49,100 --> 00:03:52,300 So, often times when we talk about foreign policy, there's 74 00:03:52,300 --> 00:03:55,600 this tendency to think that it is completely divorced. 75 00:03:55,700 --> 00:03:57,900 Forced from what's going on within the domestic space. 76 00:03:57,900 --> 00:04:02,100 So foreign policy is over there, wherever there happens to be 77 00:04:02,108 --> 00:04:05,100 domestic. Policy is here and those two 78 00:04:05,100 --> 00:04:08,300 spheres are completely separate. But what we're attempting to 79 00:04:08,300 --> 00:04:11,400 point out in that work and elsewhere is that you can't 80 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:13,300 cleanly separate those two Arenas. 81 00:04:13,300 --> 00:04:17,300 And in fact, the tools and tactics of foreign intervention 82 00:04:17,300 --> 00:04:21,500 can and do come to be used domestically, so we can look at 83 00:04:21,500 --> 00:04:24,300 some specific consequences of that. 84 00:04:24,300 --> 00:04:28,900 So we look at That's more specifically, things like police 85 00:04:28,900 --> 00:04:31,900 militarization, the use of surveillance Technologies like 86 00:04:31,900 --> 00:04:35,800 uavs and so on. But the more broader or the 87 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:39,900 broader point that we make within that book is highlighting 88 00:04:39,900 --> 00:04:43,500 that one of the consequences of foreign intervention, is the 89 00:04:43,500 --> 00:04:48,200 erosion of constraints that are placed upon government and 90 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,500 potential for expansion. Not just in the scale of 91 00:04:51,500 --> 00:04:53,600 government. So again, think about the 92 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:58,300 monetary cost, how much? Are how big government is but 93 00:04:58,300 --> 00:05:03,200 also the scope of government. So the portfolio of activities 94 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,400 or the types of activities that government is involved in and 95 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,100 that is an important consequence for thinking about foreign 96 00:05:09,100 --> 00:05:14,000 policy, even if you are someone who is just 100% focused on the 97 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,500 United States and you don't have any any inclination towards 98 00:05:17,500 --> 00:05:19,100 thinking about foreign cost at all. 99 00:05:20,300 --> 00:05:23,300 When it comes to saying things like well this allows the 100 00:05:23,300 --> 00:05:25,800 government to grow drastically. There are some people who will 101 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,600 just say, you know what, there are Nordic countries that have 102 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:31,300 bigger, government's things are fine there. 103 00:05:31,300 --> 00:05:34,700 I'm not really worried about big government is big government. 104 00:05:34,700 --> 00:05:38,000 Just this Boogeyman that stupid right-wingers are throwing 105 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,700 around. Or is it actually something that 106 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:45,000 the average person who Envy say the Nordic model should actually 107 00:05:45,100 --> 00:05:48,200 have second thoughts about. So there's something interesting 108 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:51,300 there about people talking about, Governments being 109 00:05:51,300 --> 00:05:56,400 threatening versus benign, let's say and you can Envision a 110 00:05:56,400 --> 00:06:01,100 scenario in which you have a very large government. 111 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:05,200 That actually doesn't do very much or one that is not 112 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:07,300 particularly threatening. So we people talking about the 113 00:06:07,300 --> 00:06:09,800 Nordic States, you're talking about economically free 114 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:14,800 countries with a very large social safety net that's 115 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:18,300 profoundly different from the kind of expansions that were 116 00:06:18,300 --> 00:06:19,900 primarily focused on which again. 117 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,100 Are those expansions in scope? So again, you can imagine a 118 00:06:23,100 --> 00:06:27,600 really large government that is not doing very much but you 119 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,800 could also Imagine a very small government that is doing a whole 120 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,700 lot of really nefarious things and so I think that when we 121 00:06:34,700 --> 00:06:39,700 focus on maybe the size it's not an irrelevant thing for us to 122 00:06:39,707 --> 00:06:43,300 think about because a lot of times we assume that the scale 123 00:06:43,300 --> 00:06:45,900 of government and the scope of government are correlated. 124 00:06:45,900 --> 00:06:49,800 So if the scale is going growing the scope is also growing but 125 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,500 that's Not necessarily the case. And so one of the things that I 126 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:57,400 often times suggest to people is to think about those things as 127 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,800 potentially two separate entities and to consider each of 128 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:04,400 them individually and not just consider them as One Singular 129 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:08,900 unit. So the logic that Paul Krugman 130 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:14,600 uses in arguing with zombies is that my spending is your income 131 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:18,600 and your spending is my income. Therefore when we have something 132 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:23,900 like a war Or we really get this whole engine heavily stimulated 133 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,500 and that leads to more spending higher incomes and therefore 134 00:07:27,500 --> 00:07:31,200 economic growth. What if anything is a wrong with 135 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:36,200 that mindset, that type of like is prime the pump type of 136 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:40,000 Economics, just causes me physical pain when whenever I 137 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:44,700 hear about it because that's assuming that everything is the 138 00:07:44,700 --> 00:07:47,100 same. So, a dollar spent is a dollar 139 00:07:47,100 --> 00:07:49,900 spent, but doesn't tell you anything. 140 00:07:50,100 --> 00:07:53,600 About whether or not those dollars are being spent in a way 141 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:58,700 that actually satisfy the wants and desires of other human 142 00:07:58,700 --> 00:08:00,600 beings. And so, one of the classic 143 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:05,700 examples that we use is this, if I am given an instruction as a 144 00:08:05,700 --> 00:08:11,100 Soviet nail Factory to produce one ton of nails, I can make one 145 00:08:11,100 --> 00:08:15,200 ton of really small nails that can actually be useful or I can 146 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:19,100 make one as in a singular ton nail. 147 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:23,900 Both of those satisfy the, the output Target but doesn't tell 148 00:08:23,900 --> 00:08:26,900 me, but don't tell me anything about whether or not what I've 149 00:08:26,900 --> 00:08:30,900 done is actually useful. The other thing that is 150 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:35,000 complicated, when we're talking about war spending, because one 151 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:39,799 of my gifts, talk about zombies and it's close to Halloween. 152 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,200 It's an economic fallacy that just refuses to die is when 153 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:46,300 people talk about how World War 2 got us out of the Great 154 00:08:46,300 --> 00:08:49,900 Depression. No, it didn't you. 155 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:55,000 Have actual monetary prices in this war economy. 156 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:58,100 There's a wonderful paper by an economist named, Robert Higgs. 157 00:08:58,100 --> 00:09:02,300 That really explains that particular fallacy in pretty 158 00:09:02,300 --> 00:09:06,700 elegant detail, so I would definitely Point people to his 159 00:09:06,700 --> 00:09:08,500 work on that issue. Specifically. 160 00:09:08,500 --> 00:09:14,500 But in thinking about, not only this idea that we are just again 161 00:09:14,500 --> 00:09:20,100 pumping, pumping money. It goes back to the the all 162 00:09:20,100 --> 00:09:23,200 Keynesian idea where if we're lagging in one area. 163 00:09:23,300 --> 00:09:26,400 So if they consumption is falling, you just pump up G and 164 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,300 it doesn't matter what G or government spending is being 165 00:09:29,300 --> 00:09:31,100 spent on. So whether it's war or whether 166 00:09:31,100 --> 00:09:34,900 it's, you know, ditch-digging that it's going to increase 167 00:09:34,900 --> 00:09:37,500 Prosperity. The other thing that people seem 168 00:09:37,500 --> 00:09:41,300 to forget about foreign conflict and war is that it actively 169 00:09:41,300 --> 00:09:44,700 destroys human beings and resources, which is the 170 00:09:44,700 --> 00:09:47,700 antithesis of actually growing wealth because you are actively 171 00:09:47,700 --> 00:09:51,300 engaged in destruction. So, And if you want to make the 172 00:09:51,308 --> 00:09:54,800 argument well but if you destroy things then there are people who 173 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:57,400 are going to be making money. Building it back. 174 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,200 Sure. But you're now having to expend 175 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,900 resources to replace things which already existed as opposed 176 00:10:03,900 --> 00:10:06,600 to spending those resources on something else that could have 177 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,100 been value-added. Yeah. 178 00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:11,200 It's like the broken window fallacy. 179 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,500 People can appreciate that. Well yeah if you pay someone to 180 00:10:14,500 --> 00:10:17,500 repair the window that you're spending money but now you're 181 00:10:17,500 --> 00:10:19,800 just back to where you were previously with less money. 182 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:24,000 Oh, so you're worse off but when it comes to lots of Windows and 183 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:27,300 buildings and people getting blown up, well that of course, 184 00:10:27,300 --> 00:10:31,000 is economic growth. All of us the way that I explain 185 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:34,600 it is this and so I live in Florida, we recently experienced 186 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:39,200 a hurricane and Victor Clark is at Florida Gulf Coast University 187 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:42,000 and I wrote a small piece basically taking aim at the 188 00:10:42,008 --> 00:10:44,700 broken window fallacy because we kept hearing these things at 189 00:10:44,700 --> 00:10:47,500 like, oh like actually like these places could could build 190 00:10:47,500 --> 00:10:49,500 back better and like this could actually be good for the 191 00:10:49,500 --> 00:10:52,100 economy. And the way that we conclude 192 00:10:52,100 --> 00:10:55,000 that piece in the way that I've discussed this elsewhere, is 193 00:10:55,000 --> 00:11:00,800 that if destruction is really great for economic growth, then 194 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,800 my city of Tampa should actually be really sad that we missed the 195 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,400 hurricane because think about all that economic growth that we 196 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,600 were missing out on if war is so wonderful. 197 00:11:10,700 --> 00:11:12,600 Now again, we're kind of switching from talking about the 198 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,500 domestic side from talking about to tell you about the foreign 199 00:11:15,500 --> 00:11:19,100 side, but if war is so wonderful and by getting destroyed, you 200 00:11:19,108 --> 00:11:21,900 know, we can get all of this, you know, infrastructure built 201 00:11:21,900 --> 00:11:23,600 back up or we could build back better. 202 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:27,800 Then would we not be disappointed when we don't see 203 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,900 like widespread destruction? Because again, think about all 204 00:11:29,908 --> 00:11:32,000 that economic growth that we could be missing out on. 205 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:37,900 So part one of the fallacy is assuming a dollar spent arming 206 00:11:37,900 --> 00:11:41,000 job at Al nusra is just as good as taking your family to 207 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,600 Disneyland, it's their equating money. 208 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,600 When they shouldn't be the voluntary sector with the 209 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:49,900 coercive and then the second part. 210 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:53,100 This is saying that saving is basically bad. 211 00:11:53,100 --> 00:11:57,700 That that is the implication. Almost always that to save is to 212 00:11:57,700 --> 00:12:00,800 really not allow the economy to reach its full potential. 213 00:12:01,100 --> 00:12:05,400 What are the benefits of saving or postponing consumption? 214 00:12:06,100 --> 00:12:09,000 So, I mean, one of the things that I will always tell people 215 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,500 is that, like many economists, I am by no means a personal 216 00:12:11,500 --> 00:12:15,800 finance expert and so please don't ask me for personal 217 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:20,200 finance advice. But in terms of the Thing that 218 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:22,900 people often point to is again a Keynesian idea of the, the 219 00:12:22,900 --> 00:12:26,100 Paradox of saving. So this idea that if people are 220 00:12:26,100 --> 00:12:29,600 saving too much than people aren't spending, and then as a 221 00:12:29,608 --> 00:12:34,300 result of that, there's a decline in economic activity, 222 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:38,500 but that misses a a couple of different things. 223 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:43,700 So one of the things that we can potentially talk about that 224 00:12:43,700 --> 00:12:47,300 relates to a number of different things that are happening right 225 00:12:47,300 --> 00:12:53,000 now, is that well, you You make different decisions and 226 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:56,800 different choices when you have some savings versus when you 227 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:58,700 don't. And if you want to talk about 228 00:12:58,700 --> 00:13:01,800 things like future wealth creation, and you want to talk 229 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:05,300 about investment and things like that, then savings are a 230 00:13:05,300 --> 00:13:09,000 necessary precondition for those types of activities. 231 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,400 And so it's neglecting quite quite a lot. 232 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,000 A macroeconomist would probably be able to give you a much more 233 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:17,900 nuanced. Take down of all of, you know, 234 00:13:17,900 --> 00:13:21,800 Keynesian, 's para, keynes's paradox, Has but I'd start with 235 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:27,100 that when you look at but once you convince people that the 236 00:13:27,100 --> 00:13:30,600 military sectors way too big, they'll finally conceded and say 237 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:32,300 you know what, all right, it's too big. 238 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:36,600 In fact it's so big that we can't stop and we can't do 239 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:38,400 anything about it because then all these people would lose 240 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,800 their jobs and the economy would go into total recession. 241 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:45,400 So once they agree with us, they say, you know what, we actually 242 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:48,700 can't do anything when it comes to the mindset of, there's all 243 00:13:48,700 --> 00:13:51,400 these people employed. And for us to drastically cut 244 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:54,600 back, would lead to mass unemployment and then a drop in 245 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:56,800 consumption and then a massive recession. 246 00:13:57,100 --> 00:13:58,600 What if anything is wrong with that? 247 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:02,100 So, in terms of again, like we can make all kinds of 248 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:06,000 predictions about what would happen, the kind of the the 249 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,500 knock-on effects, I think, I mean honestly like if you were 250 00:14:08,500 --> 00:14:12,800 to drastically decrease the size of the US military or the 251 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,000 Department of Defense, you would be disappointing. 252 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,500 A lot of people and so that's not. 253 00:14:17,500 --> 00:14:22,000 I think an invalid thing That people point out the, the 254 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,900 relevant question I think is this one is what were those 255 00:14:24,900 --> 00:14:27,100 people potentially be doing instead? 256 00:14:27,100 --> 00:14:29,900 And would those types of activities be more productive 257 00:14:29,900 --> 00:14:33,900 than the current activities in which they're engaged. 258 00:14:33,900 --> 00:14:37,800 So again, not to downplay the fact that when you have 259 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:42,100 significant changes or reductions in one particular 260 00:14:42,100 --> 00:14:46,400 sector, that that is not painful for individuals who are working 261 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:51,300 within that sector but it ignores The other types of 262 00:14:51,300 --> 00:14:55,100 things that people could be, could be doing and other things 263 00:14:55,100 --> 00:14:59,100 that people people would do. And it's not mean, certainly 264 00:14:59,100 --> 00:15:03,200 wouldn't think if someone is working as a military or a 265 00:15:03,208 --> 00:15:07,800 defense contractor, who has skills in a particular area, you 266 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,200 know, a purchasing or something like that, but they're not going 267 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:13,700 to be able to transfer those skills into an alternative, an 268 00:15:13,708 --> 00:15:17,100 alternative form of employment. And so it ignores the fact that 269 00:15:17,100 --> 00:15:21,100 you have growth then in Other sectors. 270 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,600 Where as opposed to now channeling all of these 271 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,300 resources into defense, you're channeling these resources into 272 00:15:26,300 --> 00:15:30,800 something else. How can we falsify? 273 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:33,200 I'm thinking of how we can actually measure it. 274 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:36,800 So, one of the things that would come to mind is, are there any 275 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:41,000 Industries in America, which previously employed a large 276 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,400 percentage of the population, which now employs a small 277 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:47,000 percentage of the population? Are there any Industries? 278 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,900 We can look at to say used to have a lot of people here. 279 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,200 Now we don't and it's not like they all had to be buried in 280 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,100 Siberia. They're just working somewhere 281 00:15:55,100 --> 00:15:57,600 else. What is what's an example of one 282 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,000 of those Industries? I mean the classic example that 283 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,200 we often times due to their principal students is 284 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,600 agriculture and so you used to have like the vast majority of 285 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,300 the population that had to work in order to be able to feed the 286 00:16:08,300 --> 00:16:11,200 small percentage of the population that was not working 287 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:15,300 in agriculture. Now of course you do not have 288 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,700 the vast majority of people working in agriculture. 289 00:16:17,700 --> 00:16:20,700 It's actually a relatively small segment of individuals who are 290 00:16:20,700 --> 00:16:24,100 working within that sector other examples that you could look at 291 00:16:24,100 --> 00:16:27,100 two things. Like again using some classic 292 00:16:27,100 --> 00:16:30,600 examples can needle stick makers people within the horse and 293 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,000 buggy industry. And again, it's not saying that 294 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:37,100 when these types of changes occur that it's not painful for 295 00:16:37,100 --> 00:16:39,500 the individuals who are losing their job. 296 00:16:39,500 --> 00:16:42,200 So if you're someone who you've worked your entire life as a 297 00:16:42,208 --> 00:16:44,800 Candlestick maker and then all of a sudden Here Comes 298 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,800 electricity and light bulbs, that you might not have some 299 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,200 real difficulties in transitioning to an economy 300 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:56,800 where that is no longer. Something that is as desirable 301 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:01,100 but we can talk About other policies that could potentially 302 00:17:01,100 --> 00:17:03,800 assist with those types of transitions. 303 00:17:04,300 --> 00:17:08,500 That doesn't mean that you continue to throw good money 304 00:17:08,500 --> 00:17:14,700 after bad into something that is ineffective no longer valuable 305 00:17:15,300 --> 00:17:20,400 or is, you know, the product of military of the product of 306 00:17:21,099 --> 00:17:26,500 bureaucratic bloating That is a great response because you can 307 00:17:26,500 --> 00:17:31,600 say well there's there's all these jobs and if they lose 308 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:33,200 their job they don't know what they're going to do. 309 00:17:33,500 --> 00:17:37,000 Even though there's a great number of jobs that are 310 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:40,200 available today more so than usual. 311 00:17:40,700 --> 00:17:45,100 But if you if your responses, well we can actually do a number 312 00:17:45,100 --> 00:17:48,200 of other things to increase the likelihood that people will have 313 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:51,400 more job opportunities. Well, that's at least softening 314 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:55,200 the blow when it comes. To how countries or how anyone 315 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:59,400 can increase the number of job opportunities within a country? 316 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:01,000 What are some steps? They should take. 317 00:18:01,500 --> 00:18:05,700 So one of the things that I always suggest and again there's 318 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:09,400 one of the things that it's very true and comes through a lot in 319 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,100 my work, is that a lot of what I do is what I would refer to and 320 00:18:13,100 --> 00:18:17,700 others as diagnostic. So pointing out the problems of 321 00:18:17,700 --> 00:18:22,200 a particular issue, not nearly as much of it being prescriptive 322 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:23,900 in terms. Like, and here is what you 323 00:18:23,900 --> 00:18:27,200 should do. Because ultimately, I don't have 324 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,900 like a nice list or a silver bullet kind of an answer for how 325 00:18:30,900 --> 00:18:34,100 we fix a lot of these problems. But if you want to talk about 326 00:18:34,100 --> 00:18:39,200 things, like job creation, or want to talk about things that 327 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,600 just make people better off, we've returned to a lot of the 328 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:46,000 basics that we think about things like trade, like allowing 329 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:52,100 people, the ability to freely contract with each other giving 330 00:18:52,100 --> 00:18:57,600 people I think this the the permission to engage in economic 331 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,200 activities. So some of the things that would 332 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,400 be like low-hanging domestic fruit. 333 00:19:02,500 --> 00:19:05,700 Reducing things like occupational licensing for a 334 00:19:05,708 --> 00:19:10,800 variety of different types of careers or different types of 335 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:15,000 activities, allowing people more easily to to move. 336 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,400 So we can talk about that within the context of international 337 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,300 borders, specifically. But there are lots of things 338 00:19:21,300 --> 00:19:24,300 like that that we can do, right? Reducing trade barriers is 339 00:19:24,300 --> 00:19:26,800 another good example. And these are all things that 340 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:31,900 can increase productivity and not just domestically but also 341 00:19:31,900 --> 00:19:35,300 have some really important Global implications, as well for 342 00:19:35,300 --> 00:19:40,200 individuals who claim to be really concerned about global 343 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,200 poverty. There are some really internal 344 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:47,500 policies that are inward focused that would likely be a lot more 345 00:19:47,500 --> 00:19:50,900 effective than a lot of our current policies which are very 346 00:19:50,900 --> 00:19:54,300 externally focused and Attempting to quote, unquote, 347 00:19:54,300 --> 00:19:57,000 fix whatever country it is. That were attempting to 348 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:03,300 intervene in Have you seen any cases of countries that had very 349 00:20:03,300 --> 00:20:07,300 large military budgets and then drastically decrease, their 350 00:20:07,300 --> 00:20:11,500 military budget and did not experience significant economic 351 00:20:11,500 --> 00:20:15,100 hardship. So I think there are a few 352 00:20:15,100 --> 00:20:18,200 different things that we would have to think about within that 353 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:21,600 particular question. So obviously people think about 354 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,000 countries like Germany and Japan who went from being very large 355 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,900 military Powers who suddenly not only are you not a military 356 00:20:27,900 --> 00:20:30,100 power but you can't have him. Terry anymore. 357 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,800 And so certainly there was pain in, you know, the post World War 358 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:36,400 Two period in both of those places. 359 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:40,800 But now you see both Japan and Germany is being very successful 360 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:45,300 countries from from an economic and other perspectives, I'd have 361 00:20:45,300 --> 00:20:51,600 to think a bit more in terms of outside of kind of a post-war 362 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,500 scenario. If you had large countries that 363 00:20:54,500 --> 00:20:57,300 word take their, their militaries, get them very large 364 00:20:57,300 --> 00:21:00,000 and then shrink them back down. I mean, Historically, if you 365 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:04,100 look at us data, you would see huge run-ups in the military in 366 00:21:04,100 --> 00:21:07,500 Wartime, and then significant draw Downs on military power 367 00:21:07,500 --> 00:21:11,300 after conflict. But have to think more about 368 00:21:11,300 --> 00:21:15,900 peacetime examples. Yeah, well, there were the 369 00:21:15,900 --> 00:21:20,500 Roaring 20s after the Paris 1919 there. 370 00:21:20,500 --> 00:21:24,600 There's a great paper called the Great Depression of 1946 which 371 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,500 is a play on the fact that there was no Great Depression. 372 00:21:27,500 --> 00:21:31,200 After the second World War, Or took took place. 373 00:21:32,100 --> 00:21:35,500 What was the most important thing you learned from your 374 00:21:35,500 --> 00:21:38,700 research on manufacturing? Militarism US. 375 00:21:38,700 --> 00:21:42,100 Government propaganda in the war on terror, call me on the most 376 00:21:42,100 --> 00:21:44,600 important thing. That's him a couple of the most 377 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:46,700 important, okay? I'll doing research for that 378 00:21:46,700 --> 00:21:49,700 bookie. One of the things that really 379 00:21:49,700 --> 00:21:56,100 stood out to me in researching, that book is the Contemporary 380 00:21:56,100 --> 00:22:00,200 relevance of propaganda Within attic societies. 381 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,900 So I know a lot of people when thinking about propaganda, they 382 00:22:03,900 --> 00:22:06,500 tend to associate with autocracies and I think 383 00:22:06,500 --> 00:22:10,600 rightfully so or if you mention Democratic propaganda, they'll 384 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,700 think about, you know, posters from World War 1 or World War 385 00:22:13,700 --> 00:22:16,100 two things like that. But there's not really a lot of 386 00:22:16,100 --> 00:22:18,400 discussion of contemporary propaganda. 387 00:22:18,700 --> 00:22:21,700 And so one of the big takeaways from working on that book was 388 00:22:21,700 --> 00:22:25,700 that propaganda is still very, very much a contemporary and 389 00:22:25,700 --> 00:22:28,400 relevant topic within modern day. 390 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,400 Is so that would be the first thing. 391 00:22:32,100 --> 00:22:35,200 And then the second, I guess, most important thing would be 392 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:41,000 the implications of the use continued and historical of 393 00:22:41,100 --> 00:22:45,000 propaganda, both short-term consequences and long-term 394 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,600 consequences. Short-term consequences, being 395 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,500 that propaganda can have a significant impact on the types 396 00:22:50,500 --> 00:22:53,300 of policies that people do and do not support. 397 00:22:53,300 --> 00:22:58,500 And then in the long run, more profoundly than that, is that 398 00:22:58,500 --> 00:23:00,400 propaganda. Ava, can effectively work to 399 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:05,500 undermine the types of Institutions that we purport to 400 00:23:05,500 --> 00:23:06,800 really want to uphold and protect. 401 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:10,800 How can I determine whether or not? 402 00:23:10,808 --> 00:23:15,700 I'm watching propaganda, or very accurate information. 403 00:23:15,700 --> 00:23:20,400 That's one thing that comes out in this research, is that often 404 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,500 times? It's incredibly difficult to 405 00:23:22,500 --> 00:23:24,500 know what it is that you're seeing. 406 00:23:24,500 --> 00:23:28,900 And well there are a few reasons for that but there are two that 407 00:23:28,900 --> 00:23:33,000 are I'll offer. So one is that there is as your 408 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,300 question actually highlights. There is a really serious 409 00:23:36,300 --> 00:23:40,600 asymmetric information problem, so when it comes to releasing 410 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:45,600 information about defense or national security policy and 411 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:50,400 Manufacturing militarism talks exclusively about policies 412 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,800 related to the National Security and defense space. 413 00:23:53,300 --> 00:23:57,700 So you have these asymmetric information problems where the 414 00:23:57,700 --> 00:24:01,600 individuals who have Of the information know much more than 415 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,700 the individuals who are receiving that information. 416 00:24:04,700 --> 00:24:08,600 And it's difficult for the layperson to really kind of make 417 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,200 heads or tails of a lot of it. But then the other thing that 418 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,200 you have to is that you also, in addition to these asymmetric 419 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:19,700 information problems is you have pure Monopoly on the 420 00:24:19,700 --> 00:24:22,300 information, from the perspective of the individuals 421 00:24:22,300 --> 00:24:26,600 who are the repositories of that information. 422 00:24:26,900 --> 00:24:30,300 So the department of It's decides what it's going to 423 00:24:30,300 --> 00:24:32,600 release and when the TSA decides, what it's going to 424 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,600 release and when and people say, oh well, you know, Freedom of 425 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,800 Information Act request, and it's like, well and we highlight 426 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,100 actually one of these with respect to the TSA. 427 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,300 Sure I can I can issue a foia request or I can submit one but 428 00:24:45,300 --> 00:24:48,100 it might be eight years before I actually get the data that I've 429 00:24:48,100 --> 00:24:51,700 requested. And so in that case is it, is it 430 00:24:51,700 --> 00:24:57,000 really helpful and so it's difficult just from those 431 00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:58,500 particular things. But the other thing I think 432 00:24:58,500 --> 00:25:00,000 that's difficult. Called about it is that we 433 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,700 actually encounter it quite a lot. 434 00:25:01,700 --> 00:25:05,800 So if you've ever watched a professional sport either in 435 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:10,500 person or on television, in the last 20 years, you've likely 436 00:25:10,500 --> 00:25:15,300 been subjected to what the dod calls paid patriotism, which is 437 00:25:15,300 --> 00:25:18,400 propaganda by another name. If you've gone to a movie 438 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:23,800 theater in the last 20 years and you've seen a movie or if you've 439 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,100 turned on television and you've ever watched a, a Gordon Ramsay 440 00:25:27,100 --> 00:25:31,200 cooking show where they are. Are cooking for some branch of 441 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,200 the military. Congratulations you've watched 442 00:25:34,300 --> 00:25:38,900 propaganda because all of those things are receiving assistance, 443 00:25:38,900 --> 00:25:42,800 in some way from the Department of Defense and yet people who 444 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:47,500 are consuming these pieces of entertainment, they don't know. 445 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,100 Like there's not some disclaimer like hey this, you know, 446 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:55,100 Fillmore this TV show was vetted carefully by the Department of 447 00:25:55,100 --> 00:26:02,400 Defense prior prior to are Yeah, really, you can look at articles 448 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:03,900 like this is one of my favorites. 449 00:26:04,100 --> 00:26:06,800 Here's why economists don't expect trillions of dollars in 450 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,900 economic stimulus to create inflation, published by CNBC 451 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,300 July 23rd 2020. It's one of those things I saw 452 00:26:15,300 --> 00:26:18,000 as a screenshot on Twitter. And I go, that's got to be a 453 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,500 fake article. I got to look that up and here 454 00:26:20,500 --> 00:26:21,900 it is. All right there. 455 00:26:21,900 --> 00:26:23,900 No shame. No retraction. 456 00:26:23,900 --> 00:26:27,900 No apologies, no Mass firings. @Cn be EC. 457 00:26:27,900 --> 00:26:31,400 No, thank you so much. Austrian School and George Mason 458 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,900 University. We've been wrong for decades. 459 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,100 What else do we have to learn? It's it's incredible. 460 00:26:37,100 --> 00:26:40,900 It's it's all around us. Any tips for people who want to 461 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,200 do their best to not get manipulated by Propaganda. 462 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:49,300 So at the end of the book, we offer a few different potential 463 00:26:49,300 --> 00:26:55,000 solutions for combating propaganda and the the piece 464 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,400 that I think is probably most relevant for. 465 00:26:58,700 --> 00:27:03,500 Kind of every everyday individuals is to be skeptical 466 00:27:03,500 --> 00:27:09,700 of the information that you were receiving to not take the 467 00:27:09,700 --> 00:27:12,500 information that you're receiving necessarily at face 468 00:27:12,500 --> 00:27:14,600 value. So, we refer to it as kind of a, 469 00:27:14,700 --> 00:27:20,200 like, a citizen inoculation. If you will the the the 470 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,500 difficulty with that though, in one of the things that we 471 00:27:22,500 --> 00:27:26,200 highlight is that often times even if people want the relevant 472 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:30,900 information, It's often times difficult or even impossible for 473 00:27:30,900 --> 00:27:34,600 people to acquire that information even if they really 474 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,600 want to get it. So that example that I mentioned 475 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,700 a few minutes ago, related to the TSA is a relevant example. 476 00:27:42,700 --> 00:27:46,800 You can't get that data and it's not just lay citizens who don't 477 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:50,600 have access to that kind of data those types of information 478 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,000 asymmetries that. I also referenced a few minutes 479 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,200 ago that applies at multiple levels of government. 480 00:27:56,300 --> 00:27:59,100 And so, if you're a member of Congress and there are certain 481 00:27:59,100 --> 00:28:02,100 information that you want you may not be able to access that 482 00:28:02,100 --> 00:28:07,700 either the paid patriotism piece that I mentioned is a relevant 483 00:28:07,700 --> 00:28:10,300 example there, so paid patriotism. 484 00:28:10,300 --> 00:28:14,900 If people aren't particularly familiar, the Department of 485 00:28:14,900 --> 00:28:22,600 Defense has spent for again, a couple of decades, Money Paid 486 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:27,900 outfits, like various teams of the NFL, the national Hockey 487 00:28:27,900 --> 00:28:32,000 League Major League Baseball Major League Soccer NASCAR to 488 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:36,500 engage in patriotic displays. And so, a lot of times, like, if 489 00:28:36,500 --> 00:28:41,300 you've ever seen the National Guard and singing the National 490 00:28:41,300 --> 00:28:44,700 Anthem or a full field flag display, or a surprise family 491 00:28:44,700 --> 00:28:47,600 homecoming. Oftentimes, those are not 492 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,800 genuine patriotic displays but instead were things that were 493 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,100 bought and paid for by the Department of Defense. 494 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:57,300 So how does this relate to Congressional oversight and 495 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:01,000 Congress, not having all the information. 496 00:29:02,100 --> 00:29:06,200 The best information that we have on paid patriotism in the 497 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:11,800 post 9/11 period comes from the late Senator, John McCain and 498 00:29:11,900 --> 00:29:16,500 Jeff Flake Sophos out. In Arizona, there is one report 499 00:29:16,700 --> 00:29:20,400 that came out in 2012. It's called tackling patriotism. 500 00:29:20,900 --> 00:29:27,600 And that is a valuable report because it actually gives us us 501 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:31,400 data, but it acknowledges upfront that it is woefully 502 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,700 incomplete. Like it's missing years of data 503 00:29:35,100 --> 00:29:39,100 that we just simply don't have and so they're not able to 504 00:29:39,100 --> 00:29:43,000 access that data either. Now, whether or not that data is 505 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,000 actually been kept or not that's not clear to me. 506 00:29:46,300 --> 00:29:50,700 So we have we don't necessarily always have this ability to 507 00:29:50,900 --> 00:29:53,800 figure out what what we have and what we don't and it's not 508 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:57,400 always easy for us to get but encouraging people. 509 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:03,400 To be skeptical in the information that they receive 510 00:30:03,700 --> 00:30:07,000 from, from really just the the channels that they get. 511 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:08,900 So that doesn't mean that you have to be like wearing a 512 00:30:08,900 --> 00:30:12,900 tinfoil hat and, you know, thinking like everything that 513 00:30:12,900 --> 00:30:15,100 you are seeing is a lie and everything that you are seeing 514 00:30:15,100 --> 00:30:18,000 as propaganda. But not taking everything that 515 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,800 you're receiving, maybe at face value is a healthy helpful 516 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,900 thing, for people who want to be informed and educated 517 00:30:24,900 --> 00:30:27,300 participant participate. Participate. 518 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:31,100 Try it again. Participatory citizens, one of 519 00:30:31,100 --> 00:30:35,200 my favorite examples was how Adam kinzinger is so uppity 520 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,200 about how there's misinformation out there that we have to 521 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:42,300 tackle. So Russia goes in in February 522 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,100 and you know what everyone's talking about. 523 00:30:46,100 --> 00:30:51,000 We need to support Ukraine. And this guy, Sam hide like this 524 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,900 comedian. Puts a picture of his face on a 525 00:30:54,900 --> 00:30:58,900 video game and says the ghost of Kiev Is flying and killing all 526 00:30:58,900 --> 00:31:02,600 these Russians and have kinzinger retweets and says, 527 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,700 look how cool this is, Viva Ukraine, and all this stuff. 528 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,900 He fell for the biggest one. The only reason I mention that 529 00:31:08,900 --> 00:31:12,800 is we're always told well there's the information 530 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,200 asymmetry in the marketplace and that's why government needs to 531 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,800 step in. And and regulate it, as though, 532 00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,000 there isn't a difference in the amount of information, 533 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:24,100 politicians and citizens have, it's like, people are so dumb 534 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,200 that they can't have the right to make their own decisions. 535 00:31:27,500 --> 00:31:30,400 Also, they should have the right to vote on decisions that are 536 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:35,000 imposed on everyone else. It all comes full circle and 537 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:40,500 that's why I think you and dr. Coin harnessing or rather 538 00:31:40,500 --> 00:31:44,200 harmonizing the importance of foreign policy and domestic 539 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,000 policy is so important. Finally. 540 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:50,600 Any of the major role lessons from tyranny comes home, the 541 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,200 domestic fate of US military ISM that people should be aware of. 542 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,000 So, one of the things that we highlight in that book, In the 543 00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:02,200 domestic consequences of foreign intervention and how it is that 544 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:06,200 even governments that are? Well, constrained domestically 545 00:32:06,700 --> 00:32:10,800 can have those constraints eroded as a result of foreign 546 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,100 intervention. And so a lot of the Contemporary 547 00:32:14,100 --> 00:32:20,300 types of policy hot buttons that we that we look at are all 548 00:32:20,300 --> 00:32:24,800 relevant and related to those foreign policy interventions. 549 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:29,400 So to give to just very contemporary Everyone's current 550 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:33,000 discussions about surveillance all have links to foreign 551 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:34,900 intervention. So people who are concerned 552 00:32:34,900 --> 00:32:38,500 about, you know, the use of various surveillance 553 00:32:38,500 --> 00:32:42,200 Technologies, domestically, those have their roots in 554 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,300 various foreign interventions, people who are concerned about 555 00:32:45,300 --> 00:32:49,000 police militarization and just policing in general. 556 00:32:49,700 --> 00:32:54,600 So use of SWAT teams or the use of other military tactics that 557 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,300 is well has very very clear links. 558 00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:02,100 To foreign interventions. And so these types of very real 559 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:07,900 very intense policy debates that we are having right now are very 560 00:33:07,900 --> 00:33:12,600 much connected to that foreign policy space and so recognizing 561 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:17,400 those consequences is helpful and then is something that we 562 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,700 should really think about the next time that we hear or 563 00:33:20,700 --> 00:33:24,300 someone is suggesting additional foreign interventions because 564 00:33:24,300 --> 00:33:27,500 one of the things that we highlight throughout the book Is 565 00:33:27,500 --> 00:33:31,000 that a lot of times these consequences they're not 566 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:34,300 immediate, they're still very much tied to that initial 567 00:33:34,300 --> 00:33:39,700 foreign intervention but the the fruit of that so to speak might 568 00:33:39,700 --> 00:33:45,500 not be seen for you know 5 10. Even 20 years down the road 569 00:33:45,900 --> 00:33:48,800 after you've had kind of the time for the groundwork to be 570 00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:53,700 laid and then these various things coalesce When it comes 571 00:33:53,700 --> 00:33:57,900 to, if you ask people, should we be thankful for Farmers? 572 00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,800 They'll say, of course Farmers make food and without food, we 573 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:02,800 die. But we don't have this 574 00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,000 round-the-clock propaganda campaign about how farmers can 575 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,300 do no wrong. And when a farmer tells you to 576 00:34:08,300 --> 00:34:10,000 do something, you blindly obey them. 577 00:34:10,100 --> 00:34:12,600 Because without them we'd starve, yet, when it comes to 578 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:16,600 the police and military, it's literally like to question them 579 00:34:16,699 --> 00:34:21,100 is to hate your country. Yet blindly supporting bores in 580 00:34:21,100 --> 00:34:23,000 place. Like Afghanistan where the 581 00:34:23,007 --> 00:34:27,000 Taliban took over after 11 days and a 20-year War, it turns out, 582 00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:30,000 the Patriots should have been negotiating with the Taliban for 583 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:34,300 bin Laden in like 2001. So when it comes to, how can 584 00:34:34,300 --> 00:34:37,300 people say over. All right, look Abigail Hall. 585 00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,900 And Chris coin are right about this, but I am so terrified of 586 00:34:40,900 --> 00:34:45,000 being seen as a guy who hates the troops seen as a coward and 587 00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,199 a traitor. What advice do you have for that 588 00:34:47,199 --> 00:34:49,400 person? It's really difficult. 589 00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:53,100 So, when I told people I was like if It's really socially 590 00:34:53,100 --> 00:34:56,300 awkward to be the person who sits down during the standing 591 00:34:56,300 --> 00:34:58,400 salute to the military during the hockey game. 592 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:02,000 And I say that from personal experience, being the person who 593 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,300 is sitting down during these things, it's socially very 594 00:35:05,300 --> 00:35:08,900 awkward and there's actually some other there's a journalist 595 00:35:08,900 --> 00:35:13,500 who in the aftermath of 9/11 when the think this was right 596 00:35:13,500 --> 00:35:16,800 after the u.s. invaded Afghanistan and it was the 597 00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:20,500 national anthem and he was with his adult son in his adult son 598 00:35:20,500 --> 00:35:23,400 was wanting to sit. And he basically was like, I 599 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:27,100 don't want to get beaten up today, like, let's just go along 600 00:35:27,100 --> 00:35:30,000 to get along. And so that is one of the in the 601 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,700 book, we talk about the functions of propaganda, is 10 602 00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,700 to create these shared expectations of what it is that 603 00:35:35,700 --> 00:35:37,200 people should do and shouldn't do. 604 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:43,100 I think one of the things that and it's one of the things that 605 00:35:43,100 --> 00:35:49,400 I try to explain to people who sometimes are make they listen 606 00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,800 to what I have to say and they say, well, you hate As of the 607 00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:55,600 military or they'll say, you hate police and my Ace in the 608 00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,900 Hole is always. Well, my husband is a marine 609 00:35:58,900 --> 00:36:01,000 veteran. So like, clearly I don't hate 610 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:06,200 them all because I marry, I married a guy who has his 611 00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:12,100 military experience, but beyond that to be a bit more a bit more 612 00:36:12,100 --> 00:36:16,600 serious about it is that there is a profound difference between 613 00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,400 loving your country and loving your government. 614 00:36:20,700 --> 00:36:26,900 So, Like and have a very strong passion for the ideals of 615 00:36:28,300 --> 00:36:33,600 liberalism in the classical sense of people, being able to 616 00:36:33,700 --> 00:36:37,600 have autonomy to freely, engage with other human beings. 617 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:42,300 I have very strong skepticism. And I have very strong feelings 618 00:36:42,300 --> 00:36:46,200 about the actions of my government and those two things 619 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:50,200 I think we can talk about is not necessarily being the same 620 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:54,200 entity. You can talk about people who 621 00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:58,000 are operating within spaces, so you can talk about, you know, 622 00:36:58,100 --> 00:37:02,000 and we can talk about individual police officers and not assume 623 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,800 that every person who is a police officer is terrible, but 624 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,400 recognize that there are some problematic institutional 625 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:14,200 structures with the within within the realm in which they 626 00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:16,800 are operating. You can do the same same kind of 627 00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,800 thing, but also, I genuinely think that healthy skepticism 628 00:37:21,100 --> 00:37:26,000 about All layers and levels of say like the military is 629 00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,700 important. I don't, I said I don't have 630 00:37:29,700 --> 00:37:33,000 anything profound in terms of like this will get you out of 631 00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,300 any argument where people might be really upset with you, but 632 00:37:36,300 --> 00:37:38,900 those are the things that I typically tend to think about 633 00:37:38,900 --> 00:37:42,900 and the things that I typically will offer to people when having 634 00:37:42,900 --> 00:37:46,800 this kind of conversation, Well, yeah, just recognizing that. 635 00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:50,000 The state is not the society. It's a parasite within the 636 00:37:50,008 --> 00:37:52,200 society. I think that's that, that's a 637 00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:56,000 fine. Did you come across any civilian 638 00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,600 numbers when you were doing research with drones? 639 00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:02,900 Because I remember hearing that 90% of people killed by the 640 00:38:02,900 --> 00:38:06,400 drones are not the targets and even the targets have like this 641 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:10,300 ridiculous six degrees from Bin Laden, kind of justification, 642 00:38:11,100 --> 00:38:13,000 but did you come across any civilian numbers in your 643 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,800 research? So there's some I'm so in my 644 00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:19,200 original work, there's the, the best data that I could find 645 00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,500 related to civilian casualty numbers. 646 00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,100 Those numbers are really difficult for us to find for a 647 00:38:25,100 --> 00:38:29,500 couple of reasons. So one that data is likely not 648 00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:33,900 actually kept for maybe some obvious reasons and maybe some 649 00:38:33,900 --> 00:38:35,100 not. So obvious ones. 650 00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:40,200 On the one hand, if you have those types of numbers, then you 651 00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,000 might see erratically at some point, have to make them 652 00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:44,700 available. The other thing too is that it's 653 00:38:44,700 --> 00:38:48,600 actually Like if you're conducting say, a drone strike 654 00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:53,300 in rural Pakistan or in Yemen, you're not exactly going to go 655 00:38:53,300 --> 00:38:56,900 out immediately after and then try to like, take a complete 656 00:38:56,900 --> 00:39:00,700 accounting. So we have a data Gathering 657 00:39:00,700 --> 00:39:03,000 issue. Now, you do have things. 658 00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:06,400 Like, if I want to read like The Many newspaper, I'm going to get 659 00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,800 one number. If I get numbers from the United 660 00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,200 States, I'm going to see something completely different. 661 00:39:11,500 --> 00:39:14,300 The truth is probably somewhere within the middle of those. 662 00:39:14,900 --> 00:39:18,400 The other problem that we have with Computing or with getting 663 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:22,700 an understanding of Civilian casualty data is the way that 664 00:39:22,700 --> 00:39:27,000 the military has historically defined a military Target. 665 00:39:27,300 --> 00:39:32,300 So if you are a military aged mail within a strike zone, so 666 00:39:32,300 --> 00:39:36,600 military-age male read like 15 to 65 and you happen to be 667 00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,200 within the strike zone, then you're considered oftentimes a 668 00:39:39,207 --> 00:39:43,600 military Target and so when you define a way civilians because 669 00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:47,800 you happen to be making, All and in the vast majority of age 670 00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:51,700 range, or the massive vast majority of Ages for your life, 671 00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:56,400 then your by definition, a combatant and so we have we have 672 00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:58,100 a few different difficulties there. 673 00:39:58,500 --> 00:40:01,600 But the information that we do have suggest exactly what you 674 00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:06,300 pointed out that often times. The the Target that is 675 00:40:06,300 --> 00:40:10,500 ultimately neutralized, is the language that is often used is 676 00:40:10,900 --> 00:40:15,100 not the intended target and that often times we do have a 677 00:40:15,100 --> 00:40:18,300 substantial number of Civilian casualties which Cuts against 678 00:40:18,300 --> 00:40:23,900 this idea that uavs are you know like this kind of surgical like 679 00:40:23,900 --> 00:40:27,400 tool in which case you can operate them with just this 680 00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:32,100 incredible Precision people. Often forget that the there even 681 00:40:32,100 --> 00:40:36,300 if that's the case, they're only as good as the intelligence that 682 00:40:36,300 --> 00:40:38,800 they're operating on. And there's a whole bunch of 683 00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:42,900 other issues related to the type of intelligence that often times 684 00:40:42,900 --> 00:40:47,000 is being acted upon Within These various scenarios in the Middle 685 00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:50,200 East specifically. We have about five minutes left. 686 00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,600 Thank you for being so generous with your time. 687 00:40:53,500 --> 00:40:57,800 What can people learn from previous foreign interventions? 688 00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:00,700 Let's just talk about America because the audience is mostly 689 00:41:00,700 --> 00:41:05,900 American, and the American regime is provoking war with 690 00:41:05,900 --> 00:41:07,900 both Russia and China at this time. 691 00:41:07,900 --> 00:41:11,600 So let's just focus on this for now, what can we learn 692 00:41:11,700 --> 00:41:14,700 historically and apply it to the present when it comes? 693 00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:20,800 As to the donbas and Taiwan. So when we think about the 694 00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:26,000 United States track record with foreign intervention, it's 695 00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:32,000 ultimately genuinely terrible. Now I have sat on panels, I have 696 00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,700 sat on debates with people who will immediately, they'll hear 697 00:41:35,700 --> 00:41:39,000 that and their first instinct will be to bring up well, but 698 00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:42,400 World War Two, and my response to that is always, if you have 699 00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:47,000 to go back to 1945, To have an example of a foreign 700 00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:51,700 intervention that was worthwhile given the Cornucopia of foreign 701 00:41:51,700 --> 00:41:54,100 interventions undertaken by the United States. 702 00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:58,900 That is an awful argument from a statistical point. 703 00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:03,100 So, I would say that the, the general take away from looking 704 00:42:03,100 --> 00:42:07,200 at all US, foreign interventions is that they do not work. 705 00:42:07,300 --> 00:42:12,800 You cannot export democracy at gunpoint, you cannot impose 706 00:42:13,100 --> 00:42:17,300 top-down regime. Um, change in a way that is 707 00:42:17,900 --> 00:42:20,500 going to stick. So to speak. 708 00:42:20,500 --> 00:42:22,000 The way, the way that you want it too. 709 00:42:24,100 --> 00:42:28,000 Now, that's not to say that occasionally, you might not see 710 00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,400 something where you have intervention, that could be 711 00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,100 successful. So again people will point to 712 00:42:32,100 --> 00:42:35,800 like Germany and Japan Chris coin, my co-author and his book 713 00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:39,600 after Ward is a really nice discussion of why examples like 714 00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:45,100 Germany and Japan are not really relevant examples in the Types 715 00:42:45,100 --> 00:42:48,400 of intervention that people are typically talking about because 716 00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:52,400 the institutional structures in those places are are different. 717 00:42:52,500 --> 00:42:54,800 They had kind of the pre-existing institutions 718 00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:58,100 already. So I would say that the takeaway 719 00:42:58,100 --> 00:43:01,700 is that foreign intervention by and large is not effective at 720 00:43:01,700 --> 00:43:07,000 achieving its goals and I would also say that the consequences 721 00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:12,700 of those interventions are not just the dollars that are spent, 722 00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:16,100 it's not just the lives that are lost and those lives are 723 00:43:16,100 --> 00:43:19,300 remarkably important and I don't want to downplay those at all 724 00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:25,800 the other consequences though are very serious and they're 725 00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:29,500 very numerous and we can't know often times what those 726 00:43:29,500 --> 00:43:35,300 consequences are prior to their prior to them manifesting. 727 00:43:35,500 --> 00:43:38,800 So again like police militarization being one, such 728 00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:41,300 example. Yeah. 729 00:43:41,300 --> 00:43:44,400 And that's a perfect example. The second world war of only 730 00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:47,500 mentioning the benefits on the back and they go. 731 00:43:47,700 --> 00:43:51,100 Okay, there were tens of millions of deaths and there 732 00:43:51,100 --> 00:43:56,000 were a lot in Germany and Japan alone and we gave half of Europe 733 00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:59,400 to Stalin and the Communists took over in China. 734 00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:03,200 So can we stop bragging about this thing and using it as an 735 00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:07,600 example, the good War killed, tens of millions of people 736 00:44:07,700 --> 00:44:11,400 that's the one that they brag about and This is supposed to be 737 00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:17,000 patriotic to just blindly obey this tyranny, when it comes to 738 00:44:17,100 --> 00:44:21,500 the full list of interventions. Do you know, anywhere where we 739 00:44:21,500 --> 00:44:27,200 could find, like, an actual oil, a full list of interventions. 740 00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:30,500 Actually some current research I'm working on, has me trying to 741 00:44:30,500 --> 00:44:33,600 come up with a comprehensive list of u.s. interventions into 742 00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:37,300 Latin America. And that task I have determined 743 00:44:37,300 --> 00:44:40,300 is almost impossible and let me explain why. 744 00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:44,600 Because you have to have some definition of an intervention. 745 00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:49,400 So if you're talking about boots on the ground military type of 746 00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,600 intervention, I'm sure that their list where you can easily 747 00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:56,200 pull that information assuming that we know that military 748 00:44:56,500 --> 00:44:58,400 troops have actually been deployed there. 749 00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:02,400 So taking taking that as the caveat but then there are other 750 00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,300 things too. So if you're talking about 751 00:45:04,300 --> 00:45:08,500 cohort covert operations. So if the CIA back, Saku does 752 00:45:08,500 --> 00:45:13,500 that count as an intervention? Or if you are engaged in more 753 00:45:14,100 --> 00:45:16,500 what we would call like soft interventions. 754 00:45:16,700 --> 00:45:19,600 So if you're attempting to influence elections or you're 755 00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:25,300 attempting to, you know, use foreign aid as like a diplomatic 756 00:45:25,300 --> 00:45:28,000 means, does that count as a foreign intervention? 757 00:45:28,300 --> 00:45:32,000 And so a lot of those things it's going to depend kind of on 758 00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,100 what exactly that people are looking for. 759 00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:37,900 I don't know of any comprehensive list that includes 760 00:45:37,900 --> 00:45:40,900 all of those things, but if someone out there, Who is 761 00:45:40,900 --> 00:45:45,500 listening does please tell me? Because I would desperately 762 00:45:45,500 --> 00:45:48,700 desperately want to see it even if it's in very rough form. 763 00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:54,400 The website is Abigail our Hall.com, you will also have a 764 00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:58,100 link to the website which collects all her papers. 765 00:45:58,300 --> 00:46:01,500 What is it? Ssrn is that somewhere in.com? 766 00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:04,000 And I will just, I will tell people to that. 767 00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,800 Like you can find a lot of people's research on that 768 00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:10,500 website and it's not going to be gated like you would get at a 769 00:46:10,508 --> 00:46:12,700 journal. A lot of its earlier drafts than 770 00:46:12,700 --> 00:46:15,600 maybe the final one, but as someone who's written, quite a 771 00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:19,200 few papers often times, there's not a huge difference between 772 00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:21,700 what Still on ssrn and what ultimately winds up in the 773 00:46:21,700 --> 00:46:25,800 journal so it'll it'll give you get you what you want to know. 774 00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:28,800 Thanks to everyone for watching Keith and I don't try don't 775 00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:31,400 anyone in the libertarian Institute dr. 776 00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:32,600 Hall thanks so much for your time. 777 00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,500 Thank you Keith. The United States age, Ukraine, 778 00:46:35,500 --> 00:46:38,800 and her people. So that we can fight Russia over 779 00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:40,900 there and we don't have to fight Russia here. 780 00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:52,500 This is your moment not all they all cried. 781 00:46:52,900 --> 00:46:58,000 Your fight is our fight. Once I go to the 2017 will be 782 00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:04,200 the year of offense. All of us will go back to 783 00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:08,800 Washington and we will push the case against Russia with super 784 00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:13,300 good. So I don't think we should go 785 00:47:13,300 --> 00:47:15,100 into the government. I don't think it's necessary. 786 00:47:15,100 --> 00:47:24,000 I don't think it's a good idea. Yeah, I mean I guess you think 787 00:47:25,700 --> 00:47:27,900 in terms of him not going into the government, just let him 788 00:47:27,900 --> 00:47:30,500 sort of stay out and do his political homework and stuff. 789 00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:34,600 To you, praying for my third visit in five weeks last 790 00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:37,600 Tuesday, in support of these very goals. 791 00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:40,800 This time, conducting parallel coordinated, high-level 792 00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,500 diplomacy, with EU High representative, Cathy Ashton 793 00:47:44,700 --> 00:47:47,000 since Ukraine's Independence in 1991. 794 00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:49,200 The United States has supported ukrainians. 795 00:47:49,500 --> 00:47:53,200 As they build Democratic skills and institutions, as they 796 00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:57,000 promote civic participation and good governance, all of which 797 00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,800 are preconditions for Ukraine to achieve its European 798 00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:02,900 aspirations. We've invested over five billion 799 00:48:02,900 --> 00:48:06,200 dollars to assist Ukraine in these and other goals that will 800 00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:11,200 ensure a secure and prosperous and Democratic Ukraine, going to 801 00:48:11,207 --> 00:48:14,900 go back and tell our colleagues what rushes up to and the 802 00:48:14,900 --> 00:48:18,400 baltics, what they're doing to Ukraine, get briefed about 803 00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:21,800 Georgia. We hope to make 2017 a year of 804 00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:24,700 offense. We believe that Putin has hacked 805 00:48:24,700 --> 00:48:27,900 into our elections in America, that is trying to undermine 806 00:48:27,900 --> 00:48:31,400 democracy all over the world. And it's time for new sanctions 807 00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:34,500 to hit him hard as an individual is energy sector. 808 00:48:34,500 --> 00:48:38,400 His banking sector it is, time to push back against Putin, but 809 00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:41,100 be a better friend to our allies over here. 810 00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,400 Including Georgia, I visit the very important trip. 811 00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:48,500 We just left Ukraine, where we've seen firsthand, what 812 00:48:48,500 --> 00:48:53,100 happens when In Russia, crosses over into a country's 813 00:48:53,100 --> 00:48:56,600 Independence and we saw it in our own election with the 814 00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:58,700 attempt to influence our election. 815 00:48:58,700 --> 00:49:02,200 We will be working for much tougher sanctions against 816 00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:05,700 Russia. They attacked the United States 817 00:49:05,700 --> 00:49:09,500 of America. The hacking was an attack and we 818 00:49:09,500 --> 00:49:12,400 should be treated as such and we think their financial 819 00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:17,300 institutions and other aspects of the Russian economy should be 820 00:49:17,300 --> 00:49:21,000 addressed. And we we will strongly urge our 821 00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:23,800 colleagues to enact more meaningful and stronger 822 00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:27,500 sanctions against Russia because of their attack on the United 823 00:49:27,500 --> 00:49:28,400 States of America.