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Welcome to Keith, and I don't 
tread on anyone in the 

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Libertarian Institute. 
Today I'm joined by Kyle 

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Anselone, news editor at the 
Libertarian Institute, to give a

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summary and analysis of Scott 
Horton's book Provoked, How 

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Washington Started the new Cold 
War with Russia and the 

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Catastrophe in Ukraine. 
Kyle if people. 

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Want to find your work? 
Where is the best place for 

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people to go? 
Well, you know, just like the 

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author of the but Scott Horton, 
the best place to find almost 

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all my work is the Libertarian 
Institute. 

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As you said, I'm the news 
editor. 

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So every day I'm putting out 
news stories and also a Daily 

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News roundup and my show 
Conflicts of Interest. 

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And then I also write op eds and
viewpoints. 

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I actually have one up at the 
institute today. 

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Also, I have a brand new show, 
the Kyle Landslone show. 

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So everybody head on over to 
YouTube, subscribe. 

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Right now I'm putting out about 
one episode a week. 

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It's a pretty high production, 
high quality show. 

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I I'm really proud of it and 
that people seem to like it so 

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far. 
I just saw your video on Syria. 

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It's on my watch later list. 
I will get to that by today. 

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I love Kyle's conflicts of 
interest show. 

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So links to those will be in the
description. 

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This book provoked is separated 
into sections based on 

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presidents of America starting 
at German reunification, Bush 

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senior. 
And then it ends with, well, the

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election of President Trump in 
2024. 

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Today we're going to be 
discussing Bush senior, Bill 

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Clinton and Bush junior. 
So starting with Bush junior, 

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Bush senior, what evidence does 
Scott provide that NATO made 

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commitments that the North 
Atlantic Trade Organization 

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would not move one inch E after 
German unification? 

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Yeah. 
Well, Scott has read all the, 

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you know, books from the people 
who were in the government at 

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that era, at that time, and also
all the reporting that was, you 

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know, said at that time. 
And what he's able to really go 

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through and document. 
And also the national security 

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archives, which have released 
some of the documents about the,

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you know, private 
correspondence, what Secretary 

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of State Baker said to Gorbachev
or whatever other Soviet 

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official. 
And I think, Keith, what is 

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powerful in like maybe the 1st 
10 to 15 pages of this book and,

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and this is that section is 
where they're going through and,

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and where Scott is going through
and documenting all the 

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different levels of the promises
that were made specifically to 

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not expand NATO eastward of a 
reunified Germany. 

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And initially they were even 
saying that, you know, we want 

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to reunify Germany, but we don't
want to expand NATO to East 

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Germany. 
They, you know, realize how can 

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you have a state where half of 
it's in the alliance and half 

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isn't? 
And so, you know, ultimately 

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they do make, you know, the 
whole Germany a member of NATO, 

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but and it's not just from the 
American officials, you know. 

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Scott documents, I believe 
German, British, French 

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officials all reiterating the 
Baker the American pledge not to

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expand NATO eastward of a 
reunified Germany. 

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And there's also what you know 
is explained in there isn't just

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that they were pledging to do 
it, but why they were pledging 

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to do it. 
And it was that the Cold War was

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over and that there was no need 
to immediately provoke the 

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Russians by starting to absorb 
the Warsaw pad countries, by 

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starting to absorb the former 
states of the Soviet Union into 

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an alliance that is inherently 
anti Russian. 

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And so this is, you know, what 
was laid out early on and yet 

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they they did it anyways. 
That's the amazing thing that 

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Scott's sources are not like 
infowars.com. 

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His sources are George Kennan. 
His sources are Pat Buchanan, 

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William Perry. 
He has Ambassador William Burns.

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He has Fiona Hill as his 
sources. 

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That's what's just so mind 
blowing about this book. 

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And, and, and the elected 
leaders themselves, this, you 

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know, Pat Buchanan, of course, 
is, is making the argument 

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against NATO expansion. 
But again, a lot of what's in 

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like the first dozen pages or 
so. 

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And look, I mean, everybody, 
this is a massive, massive book 

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here. 
I'd, I recommend that you buy 2 

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copies, 1 you can make like a 
hideaway book, hollow it out and

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put whatever goodies you don't 
want people to find in there. 

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And then the other copy you read
yourself and read, I mean, the 

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first 10-15 pages, Keith, are 
absolutely, I mean, just it, 

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it's so detailed and so 
meticulous. 

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And really I, I, I mean, knowing
what we know now, if you just 

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know what's happened from 2022 
onward or I guess really, you 

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know, 2014 onward or something 
like that. 

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If you read the first 10, 10 to 
to 15 pages, you go, oh, my God,

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the Americans knew what 
expanding NATO to Ukraine would 

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do, and yet they they did it 
anyways. 

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Here we have every American 
official saying they're not 

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going to do it. 
And they're telling their Soviet

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counterparts they're not going 
to do it. 

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They're telling the Europeans 
they're not going to do it. 

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They're telling the Europeans 
they're not going to do it. 

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They're telling the Soviets 
they're not going to do it. 

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And they're all saying this for 
very specific reasons, Keith, 

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that this would be too 
provocative. 

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It would start a new Cold War, 
essentially. 

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You know, they were saying that 
they were happy that the Iron 

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Curtain was gone, right? 
We no longer have a line drawn 

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across Europe. 
And there's, you know, one side 

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each. 
And there's a potential war 

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that's going to break out, 
right? 

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Europe was going to be the 
battlefield of a major war if 

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the US and the Soviet Union or 
NATO and the Soviet Union ever 

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went to war. 
And that was something that was 

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taken off the table when the 
Soviet Union collapsed. 

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And the American officials at 
the time were saying this is a 

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good thing. 
Let's not start expanding NATO 

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because, you know, then Russia's
going to get anxious and they're

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going to form some new alliance.
And that's going to just create 

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a, a new Iron Curtain somewhere 
in Europe, right? 

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It won't be the Elbe River 
anymore. 

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It would be, you know, in the 
Baltic states or something like.

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But they, they didn't want that 
to happen. 

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And and that's exactly what we 
ended up doing by expanding NATO

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more and more eastward. 
So if you had to pick one piece 

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of evidence that verifies this 
claim, that the understanding 

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was that if Germany's allowed to
peacefully reunify East and 

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West, then NATO would not expand
eastward. 

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Is it that James Baker, Mikhail 
Gorbachev meeting is at the 

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meeting that Baker had with 
Helmut Kohl, the I believe, 

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Chancellor of West Germany or 
Genscher? 

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If you had to pick one, what 
would it be? 

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I mean, I would pick the 
Gorbachev one, but I, I think 

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the importance of provoked isn't
that, you know, 'cause you could

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learn that particular quote from
anywhere, but when people, you 

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know, use that quote in an 
argument, you'll have a Bill 

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Kristol type or someone else 
try. 

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I had to explain it away and 
say, oh, well, you know, he was 

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really saying this and that and,
and, and try to come up with all

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these counter arguments. 
And what you have in provoked is

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the totality of the statements 
made to Russia that, you know, 

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it was the number of guarantees 
at the different levels that 

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really expressed how much that 
that you can't take this back. 

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It wasn't, you know, someone off
statement that was just floated 

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out there and Gorbachev happened
to take it too seriously. 

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No, this was something that was 
re reiterated time and time 

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again from the Americans, from 
our allies to our Russian 

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counterparts. 
And it would, you know, it was 

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meant to reassure the Russians 
that we wouldn't go down the 

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road and while telling the 
Russians and speaking among 

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ourselves why this is a good 
idea. 

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And and again it just it it. 
It happens anyways. 

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So what is the problem with NATO
expansion? 

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Don't countries join voluntarily
this purely defensive alliance? 

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Yeah, well, I I mean you, you 
know, at the core of it Keith, 

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it's an anti Russian alliance. 
And so from the perspective of 

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Moscow, even if it you know, 
it's just defensive, you now 

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have an alliance as directly set
up against you on your very 

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border. 
You know that be becomes highly 

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problematic. 
But of course, Keith is not just

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a defensive alliance, it's a 
massive military machine. 

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You know, we could look at the 
wars in Afghanistan or Libya as 

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examples of, yes, NATO does go 
to war aggressively and has 

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really messed up the world in 
doing so. 

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I mean that the war in Libya has
that massive repercussions, the 

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latest of which we just saw this
weekend with the overthrow 

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Bashar al-Assad and Al Jolani. 
Keith, al Qaeda, the the guy who

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founded al Qaeda in Syria, the 
AL Nusra Front is now the ruler 

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in Damascus, a Saudi jihadist 
is, is ruling Damascus. 

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I mean, this is this is Osama 
bin Laden's dream, and it's a 

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result of an aggressive war 
wagering by NATO. 

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And so, of course, there's a lot
of reason that the Russians 

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would be very concerned and 
skeptical with NATO being that 

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this label is a defensive 
alliance when clearly it's 

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waging offensive wars. 
But there there's a lot of other

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reasons, Keith. 
Whenever we expand NATO to a new

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country, we start having what 
our first temporary and then 

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become permanent deployments of 
military equipment to these 

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countries, right? 
You know, now there's 4000 

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German troops stationed in 
Lithuania right before the war 

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in Ukraine broke out. 
American National Guardsmen were

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in Ukraine on the front lines of
the Ukrainian civil war, 

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training the Ukrainian soldiers 
on, on how to carry out about 

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operations. 
These are American Florida 

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National Guardsmen, right? 
And so the idea that Russia 

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would be concerned about NATO 
expansion is because it comes 

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with so much more than just the 
status of a defensive alliance, 

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right? 
It's not just a declaration that

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if you attack Lithuania, then 
we're going to attack you back. 

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It's a a declaration that 
Lithuania is going to be made an

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American military outpost right 
on Russia's border. 

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They regularly carry out war 
games in the Baltic states 

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within 100 miles or so of the 
Russian border. 

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You know, preparing for a ground
war with Russia right on the 

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Russian border. 
Or maybe keep the most 

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provocative they have every year
and believe these are the 

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steadfast noon NATO war games 
where they conduct nuclear 

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drill. 
So they, you know, take 

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airplanes, right, that could 
carry nuclear weapons and they 

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fly them within, I think, 15 
miles or whatever the the 

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airspace line is of the Russian 
border and turn around to 

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simulate what it would be like 
for the nuclear air raids on 

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Moscow or Russian cities. 
And so these are huge 

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provocations. 
And yet it goes on time and time

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and time again. 
And that's why Russia is so 

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opposed to NATO expansions, 
because it's not just some 

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defensive alliance. 
It's this massive military 

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machine that's constantly 
threatening and poking at 

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Russia's borders. 
It's amazing because people 

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don't really consider the fact 
that one a war guarantee to 

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Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia 
that puts obligations on all of 

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Americans to potentially get 
conscripted and pay for a 

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military conflict. 
If there's some border dispute 

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between any of these countries, 
it's a few politicians putting a

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massive obligation on the 
domestic American population. 

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So the idea that it's voluntary 
is just like me saying Connor 

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Freeman and I had a discussion, 
Kyle, you're going to pay for 

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the bill when him and I go out 
to dinner. 

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Well, if it's voluntary between 
a few politicians in America and

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a few politicians in Romania, 
you're still putting massive 

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obligations on tons of 
strangers, not to mention the 

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moral hazard it creates. 
It basically says to these 

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people, hey, here's a blank 
check, you can pick any fight 

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with any regime you'd like and 
you have the full force and 

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backing of the US military. 
My gosh, think of the moral 

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hazard that creates. 
It's like every drunk guy at a 

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bar being best friends with the 
big bodybuilder in town. 

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Well, now you have reason to go 
around picking fights when you 

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otherwise had a incentive to be 
a little more humble and a 

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engage in a few more cost 
benefit analysis before picking 

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any fights. 
I want to go back to what you 

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said about Afghanistan. 
Afghanistan was NATO's first 

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ever declaration of war. 
Think it would have been around 

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48. 
So for like 50 or so years, 

226
00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,960
Eisenhower and Truman always 
thought it was going to be in 

227
00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,960
Berlin, that that's where the 
big conflict would take place. 

228
00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,520
Thankfully, Germany was able to 
reunify peacefully. 

229
00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:08,880
It's like you got this great 
deal and they still provoke an 

230
00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:13,200
issue on the European continent.
But when it comes to lessons we 

231
00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,680
can learn from NATO's first ever
declaration of war in 

232
00:13:15,680 --> 00:13:19,040
Afghanistan, what else is there 
before we move on to Clinton? 

233
00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,720
Well, Scott has a whole other 
book for that called Fool's 

234
00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:26,000
Errand Keith, where, you know, 
you could really learn of all 

235
00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,680
the consequences. 
But of course we saw during the 

236
00:13:28,680 --> 00:13:32,160
Biden administration it, it was 
a 20 plus year failure. 

237
00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:35,040
We wasted hundreds of billions, 
if not trillions of dollars. 

238
00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,000
We lost thousands of American 
lives. 

239
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,800
We killed 10s of thousands, 
probably hundreds of thousands 

240
00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,920
of Afghans, mostly innocent 
civilians or just local fighters

241
00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,280
who were opposing the American 
occupation of their country. 

242
00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,480
And the Taliban are in charge of
Kabul now. 

243
00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,000
So, you know, what was it all 
for? 

244
00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,520
And it just it, you know, it 
kind of on its own face shows 

245
00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:00,240
what an absolute failure that 
the war in Afghanistan was. 

246
00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:06,320
Yeah. 
Well, I at, you know, some point

247
00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:11,880
early in my political, you know,
research project, I thought that

248
00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:14,440
the Taliban and al Qaeda were 
more or less the same group. 

249
00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:18,040
And by being at war with the 
Taliban, we are at war with al 

250
00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,240
Qaeda. 
Was there any evidence? 

251
00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:25,080
Is this, you know, an 
organization that has a lot of 

252
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:26,560
ties? 
Are these totally separate 

253
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,960
groups or did they literally 
just declare war and start a 

254
00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,680
regime change operation against 
a totally irrelevant group? 

255
00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,480
Yeah, Well, I, I mean, keep the,
the al Qaeda presence, the 

256
00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:40,600
jihadist presence, the, you 
know, international Islamic 

257
00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:45,520
fighting presence in Afghanistan
is a legacy of the American 

258
00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:49,120
regime change operation, our 
dirty war against the Soviet 

259
00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,520
occupation in the the, the 
communist government of 

260
00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,960
Afghanistan and Kabul. 
And so, you know that the reason

261
00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,720
that there's even these 
international jihadists in 

262
00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:03,240
Afghanistan is largely because 
the Americans put them there. 

263
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:08,360
So anyway, when Osama bin Laden 
ends up in Afghanistan, he's not

264
00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:12,640
necessarily welcomed by the 
Taliban in Kabul, but they also 

265
00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:17,920
say that they're not actively 
going to kill him before 911. 

266
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:22,680
During the Clinton years, they 
had given American signals that 

267
00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:26,320
they are willing to let the US 
conduct air strikes to kill 

268
00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:30,520
Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan. 
You know, they indicated that he

269
00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,600
was no longer under their 
protection, saying to the 

270
00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,880
Americans that you could you 
could do what you want to him. 

271
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,800
And yet the Americans didn't 
take the opportunity to kill 

272
00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,520
Osama bin Laden then. 
So I think that, you know, kind 

273
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,880
of shows, Keith, that this 
wasn't some close relationship 

274
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,720
between the Taliban and al 
Qaeda. 

275
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:52,320
The I think the Al Qaeda 
presence in in Afghanistan made 

276
00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,960
the Taliban very uneasy and they
rather than be gone. 

277
00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:58,960
Certainly. 
I remember in Fool's Errand, he 

278
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:03,880
cites an article from October 
14th of 2001 from the Guardian 

279
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,200
where Haji Abdul Kabir, the 
Deputy Prime Minister of 

280
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,240
Afghanistan, member of the 
Taliban, basically said we'll 

281
00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:15,840
hand bin Laden over to any third
country if the Americans provide

282
00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:17,960
proof. 
It's like, well, this isn't just

283
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,200
me saying the Taliban are a 
bunch of good guys. 

284
00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:22,160
You can say they're as evil as 
you want. 

285
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,240
They just don't want a war with 
the Americans. 

286
00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,840
They're domestic imperialists 
just like every other political 

287
00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,000
organization. 
They just didn't have a big 

288
00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:34,520
incentive to have a war with 
NATO or the United States. 

289
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,960
And seeing that article when I 
read Fool's Errand was it's so 

290
00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:41,760
mind blowing I go they offered 
to make it so we didn't have to 

291
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,880
have this war in the 1st place 
and Bush went along with the 

292
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,520
operation anyways. 
Just sickening. 

293
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:52,120
Let's move on to Clinton. 
Wait, I make one more point on 

294
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:56,000
the the HW Bush chapter. 
And so like the first half of 

295
00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,960
that chapter I think does it and
it goes all the way through the 

296
00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:00,720
chapter. 
But the first half is like 

297
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:05,560
really just drilling you hard 
that Washington that our allies 

298
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,480
made the promise not to have 
NATO expansion and the reason 

299
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,000
they were making that promise to
the Russians. 

300
00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:15,440
The second-half of that chapter 
starts to get into this was all 

301
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:19,640
a ruse, right? 
Like, I guess before reading 

302
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:24,440
this book, Keith, kind of my 
initial thought was that the HW 

303
00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:27,000
Bush administration made this 
promise. 

304
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,880
And then it's kind of the 
dynamic of American politics, 

305
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:32,480
right? 
Where every single president 

306
00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:35,680
ratchets, ratchets up the 
tensions in the situation a 

307
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,160
little bit more. 
So Bush says we're not going to 

308
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,320
expand, and then Clinton does 
it. 

309
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:44,240
But it was clear that even in 
the Bush HW Bush administration 

310
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:48,000
that they were planning to 
expand NATO and that they knew 

311
00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:51,760
that that they were leaning you,
you know, leading the the 

312
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:55,480
Soviets on to get them to 
believe that they were not going

313
00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:59,920
to expand NATO in order to have 
the conditions in Eastern Europe

314
00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:01,720
so that they could span NATO, 
right. 

315
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,400
Like, they didn't want a new 
Iron Curtain to come down. 

316
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,000
They didn't want the Soviets to 
get anxious right away that the 

317
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,360
situation in Europe was going to
one day threaten Russia. 

318
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:15,200
And So what they were telling 
Moscow was not only that we're 

319
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:19,560
not going to expand NATO, but 
we're going to shift the whole 

320
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,040
purpose of NATO. 
It's going to become a political

321
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,680
institution. 
And we're going to look at other

322
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:29,440
institutions to dominate the 
security landscape of of Europe 

323
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:33,880
and that Russia and its former 
republics, the former Soviet 

324
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,000
republics would be integrated 
into that security partnership. 

325
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:40,560
Now this gets more explicit in 
the wise guy, I think more 

326
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,680
nefarious under the Clinton 
administration. 

327
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,160
We could get into that. 
But I just want to make it very 

328
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:49,200
clear that that I think one of 
the things I learned in the 1st 

329
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,760
chapter of this book, and you 
know, I'm somebody who has 

330
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,560
worked the antiwar.com for five 
years, Keith. 

331
00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:58,520
And I was shocked by this is how
explicit the Bush administration

332
00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:03,880
was that this really was a ruse,
that they were phrasing this in 

333
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:06,600
a way, and that they were 
setting up a situation so that 

334
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:11,160
they could sell this to the 
Soviets and at the same time 

335
00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:14,440
start plotting in the back rooms
their NATO expansion. 

336
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,800
That, I think is one of the 
great contributions that 

337
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:23,880
libertarianism has to this, you 
know, entire discussion where 

338
00:19:24,360 --> 00:19:27,000
it's very typical to say, well, 
if you give someone something, 

339
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:28,520
they're always going to want 
more. 

340
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:32,080
And that almost always applies. 
Almost everyone is always 

341
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,960
looking to increase the amount 
of resources they have access 

342
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,960
to, the amount of social power 
they have, the amount of money 

343
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,400
they have. 
But it's really only the free 

344
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,440
market that has a true check and
balance. 

345
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,240
And by allowing you to 
disassociate with bad actors. 

346
00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,920
Could you imagine if they had to
raise money for these wars 

347
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:52,000
voluntarily, if they had totally
volunteer armies who they could 

348
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,360
negotiate with and people had 
the freedom to disassociate 

349
00:19:55,360 --> 00:19:57,440
with? 
There's no way any of this 

350
00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:02,440
destruction could be that would 
be likely to occur if people 

351
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,440
could just stop funding it if 
they don't want it. 

352
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,840
I mean, people clearly say, 
look, we basically don't see 

353
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,200
any, you know, reason to fight a
war. 

354
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,320
Over who rules the Donbass 
region? 

355
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,920
Nope, send the ban to rights the
long range missiles, says the 

356
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,400
Biden administration. 
It's just so sickening. 

357
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,960
So that's why I think 
libertarianism is so important. 

358
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,560
The freedom to disassociate with
bad actors, as opposed to states

359
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,120
who coerce you into funding 
things against your will. 

360
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:31,480
Let's get into yes. 
Oh, I was just going to add a 

361
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,360
lot of times, Keith, they have 
to actually. 

362
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,480
It's not only that we had don't 
have an option. 

363
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,240
They openly lied to us and all 
this is covert. 

364
00:20:40,360 --> 00:20:44,800
I mean, I guess the, the funding
of in support for Ukraine was a 

365
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:48,080
little bit more explicit, but 
for a long time, I think from 

366
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:53,200
like 2013 until 2015, the Obama 
administration was running, no, 

367
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,320
I think it went into the Trump 
administration, the CIA ground 

368
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,640
branch was running an operation 
where they were bringing 

369
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,120
Ukrainians into the United 
States of America. 

370
00:21:01,120 --> 00:21:06,200
And I mean, knowing the number 
of neo Nazi fighters that are on

371
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,240
the ground in Ukraine, you have 
to wonder about if some of these

372
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,440
people were like why nationalist
extremists were coming to the 

373
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:16,440
United States and getting 
training from the CIA and then 

374
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:19,120
ship that to Ukraine. 
If you look at you, you know, 

375
00:21:19,120 --> 00:21:23,240
the initial war in Syria, this 
was AUS dirty war. 

376
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,400
It wasn't something that was 
open to the public. 

377
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:31,240
The CIA was secretly shipping 
the weapons and from Gaddafi's 

378
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,480
looted stockpiles and the 
jihadists from the Libyan 

379
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:39,000
Islamic Fighting Group, the 
veterans of al Qaeda in Iraq to 

380
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,400
Syria to carry out another 
regime change operation there. 

381
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,320
And so there, you know, there's 
just so much of this, Keith, 

382
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:50,880
that isn't even that we, we 
don't have the ability to object

383
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:52,360
that we don't even know about 
it. 

384
00:21:52,360 --> 00:21:54,360
They, they lied to our faces 
about it. 

385
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:58,440
And then, then they carry out 
these essential apps for 

386
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,680
treason. 
And that's what Operation Timber

387
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,600
Sycamore was. 
They got weapons from Libya, 

388
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,920
took them to Turkey and then 
from Turkey they sent them into 

389
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,600
the moderate rebels in Syria. 
Yeah. 

390
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:17,360
OK, let's get on to Clinton. 
NATO expansion into Czech 

391
00:22:17,360 --> 00:22:21,400
Republic, Hungary and Poland. 
What do we need to know about 

392
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:27,080
NATO expansion under Clinton? 
What was the general response by

393
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,520
Russia at the time? 
Anything you have on what's 

394
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:35,640
referred to as the fourth round 
of NATO expansion, because it's 

395
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,360
usually started the first round,
is back in 1952. 

396
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,760
This was the first round of NATO
expansion after German 

397
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,960
unification and the fall of the 
Soviet Union. 

398
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,840
Yeah. 
And, and so I think with the 

399
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,920
Clinton administration, the, the
thing I picked up most from 

400
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:54,240
Scott's book, Keith, is just how
much that the the Clinton 

401
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,920
administration was really 
looking to deceive the Soviets. 

402
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,320
As I said, there was some 
concern right that there a, a 

403
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,640
new Iron Curtain would be drawn 
that the, that Moscow would get 

404
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:08,880
really concerned if they they 
were explicit about their plan 

405
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,760
to expand NATO all the way up to
the Russian border and not 

406
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,560
include NATO into the alliance 
and so. 

407
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,720
And not include NATO into the 
alliance or. 

408
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,040
Russia, Russia into the 
alliance. 

409
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:22,040
It's. 
Excuse me there. 

410
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,600
Yeah. 
According to According to Putin,

411
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:29,080
he did ask both Bill Clinton and
Bush Junior for what they 

412
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,240
thought about Russia joining 
NATO. 

413
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,400
Right. 
Well, in, in even before that, 

414
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,960
in like 1993, in the early 
Clinton administration, they're 

415
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,880
talking to Yeltsin and the 
Russian government and they're 

416
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,840
saying that, you know, we want 
to have a, a European security 

417
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,560
structure and implying to the 
Russians that NATO isn't meant 

418
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:53,680
to be an exclusionary alliance, 
meaning, you know, week, not 

419
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,680
that maybe one day that you 
could join. 

420
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,120
And so the, the purpose of all 
of this, Keith, is so we could 

421
00:23:59,120 --> 00:24:02,160
start adding countries like 
Poland and Hungary into the 

422
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,600
alliance without the Russians 
thinking that this is an anti 

423
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,160
Russian build up, which of 
course was a lie, right? 

424
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,120
Because we continue to expand 
the alliance. 

425
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,360
We tried to expand it into 
Ukraine. 

426
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,400
And we make it clear to the 
Russians eventually that there's

427
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,800
no way that they would ever join
the alliance. 

428
00:24:18,120 --> 00:24:21,600
And so again, in the Clinton 
administration, you you have 

429
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:26,080
this December where we're not 
really going to use NATO as a 

430
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,080
defensive alliance is more a 
political stretcher. 

431
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,120
It's going to be a European 
structure. 

432
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:36,760
We're going to have the, you 
know, these other kind of 

433
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:41,960
defense structures that are 
going to somewhat supplant NATO,

434
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,480
like the European Security 
Council, things like this that 

435
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,320
were supposed to to at least 
what the US was saying, kind of 

436
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:55,440
take over for NATO in what was 
the the security of Europe. 

437
00:24:55,760 --> 00:25:00,240
And that was all likee that they
never intended to do all that. 

438
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,960
They just want to expand NATO, 
keep it as a military alliance 

439
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,600
and keep it as an anti Russian 
military alliance. 

440
00:25:07,120 --> 00:25:10,960
But at least, you know, for the 
1st 15 years or so after the 

441
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:14,720
Cold War, they didn't want the 
Russians to believe that this 

442
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,120
was explicitly an anti Russian 
alliance. 

443
00:25:17,360 --> 00:25:22,040
It's really only, I think after 
like Bucharest in 2008, where we

444
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:27,800
make it very clear that we're 
going to expand NATO to Georgia 

445
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:31,160
and Ukraine and have made it 
clear to Russia that they are 

446
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,480
never going to be members of the
alliance. 

447
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,920
That Russia really understands 
that this is a alliance meant to

448
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,840
surround Russia. 
This is a anti Russian alliance 

449
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,560
meant to surround Russia. 
And and that that's what the 

450
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:47,120
Clinton administration is really
trying to lie to to Yeltsin and 

451
00:25:47,120 --> 00:25:51,720
the Russian leadership about. 
I want to play Gorbachev's 

452
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,400
comments. 
It is a 2 minute clip. 

453
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,640
So this is Gorbachev responding 
to NATO expansion to Czech 

454
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,320
Republic, Hungary and Poland in 
the late 90s. 

455
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,560
Ninety 7 or 99. 
I believe it's a mistake, it's a

456
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:16,240
bad mistake. 
And I'm not persuaded by the 

457
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,760
assurances that we hear that 
Russia has nothing to worry 

458
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:29,160
about, that that was abruptly 
suspended or terminated in 1990.

459
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:36,280
You cannot, you may not 
humiliate a nation, a people and

460
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:42,680
think that it'll have no 
consequences, no strategy. 

461
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:51,520
So my question is, is this a new
strategy? 

462
00:26:54,920 --> 00:27:02,800
I feel that if I feel that if 
the same kind of games continue 

463
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:08,000
to be played, if one country 
plays some card against the 

464
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,640
other country, then all of those
problems, all of those issues 

465
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,840
that we've been mentioning today
will be very difficult to 

466
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:22,520
resolve last night, pre 
elections, political pluralism, 

467
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,080
the problems of concern to you. 
If not, it'll be more difficult.

468
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,280
Thank you. 
So going back to the 90s, this 

469
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,600
was still the issue. 
There were so many off ramps, 

470
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,800
this was so avoidable. 
Anything more on NATO expansion 

471
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,360
before we get into Bosnia, 
Kosovo and Chechnya? 

472
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,640
I mean, yeah, there's so much 
more we could say, Keith, but I 

473
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,640
think we can move on to Bosnia. 
Let's move on to Bosnia. 

474
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,280
What do we need to know about 
Bosnia? 

475
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:56,040
Well, Keith, I guess the first 
point to make is that, you know,

476
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,880
one of the surprising things to 
me is that there were a lot of 

477
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:02,000
off ramps to this, you know, 
particular little incident here 

478
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,840
where during the Bush 
administration, there was 

479
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,160
something called the Lisbon 
Accords that would have resolved

480
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,360
the situation potentially 
without any fighting at all. 

481
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,320
And it was the Bush 
administration that came in to 

482
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:19,160
our allies in the the those were
the Bosnian Muslims and kind of 

483
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,920
told them, like, look, you 
really shouldn't this deal 

484
00:28:22,120 --> 00:28:24,840
because maybe we're going to 
give you some more support. 

485
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,240
And then there was something at 
the end of the Bush 

486
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,440
administration that also could 
have resolved it. 

487
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,680
I believe the fighting had began
at that point. 

488
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,160
And the Clinton administration 
basically hinted that, you know,

489
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,800
don't take any deal because 
we'll give you even more 

490
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:39,600
support. 
And, you know, this just 

491
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,280
continues throughout the 
conflict where we're constantly 

492
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,800
promising one side of this 
conflict that, you know, don't 

493
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,880
take any of these ceasefire 
deals because you're going to 

494
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,440
get something really big from 
the American side. 

495
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,040
And of course, the Americans 
being the world empire, Keith, 

496
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,760
and having this massive military
force, they understand that even

497
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:02,000
if with with a little bit of 
action, we could have probably 

498
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,640
hugely tipped a favor in their 
side. 

499
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,400
So that's that's the one point I
want to make is just how 

500
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,280
avoidable it all was. 
The second point I think the 

501
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:17,640
more relevant one to today is 
just how many of the, you know, 

502
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:24,080
international jihadist militants
post Afghan war post, you know, 

503
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,240
kicking the Soviets out of 
Afghanistan. 

504
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,520
They're kind of homeless, right?
They, they can't necessarily go 

505
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,520
back to their home nations 
because look, Saudi Arabia 

506
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,120
doesn't want to love Osama bin 
Laden types coming home because 

507
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,480
they might have aspirations on 
overthrowing the king and 

508
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,480
installing, you know, a more 
jihadist style government. 

509
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,760
And that's how a lot of you, you
know, where Gaddafi was squashed

510
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:50,160
and had they gone back to Libya,
Al Qaeda or Assad? 

511
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,800
Had they gone back to serious 
the Dom, had they gone back to 

512
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:54,640
Iraq? 
And so these people are 

513
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:58,480
relatively homeless and their 
only skills, as explained in 

514
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:02,200
Provoked Keith, is basically 
being a jihadist fighter. 

515
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:06,240
And so now there's a Muslim 
cause to fight for in Europe. 

516
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:10,680
And the Saudis are, you know, 
happy to ship them off there. 

517
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,480
You know, the king doesn't want 
them coming home, but he doesn't

518
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,600
mind them waging this 
international Islamic Jihad 

519
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,160
abroad. 
And so the Saudis are spending 

520
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,840
hundreds of millions of dollars 
to ship and equip these jihadist

521
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:31,720
fight Al Qaeda linked fighters 
in in Bosnia in the mid 1990s. 

522
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,520
And of course, you know, this is
also important, Keith, because 

523
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:39,960
maybe that that movement kind of
ends up getting extinguished. 

524
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:43,040
But rather you have a whole 
nother generation because of 

525
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,960
course, you know, I think a 
couple of things that I've 

526
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:49,880
learned from watching conflicts 
over the past 10 years is the 

527
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,440
lunatics are the most effective 
fighters. 

528
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:56,000
And so while it's nice to think 
you're going to have moderate 

529
00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:02,240
rebels in Libya and Syria and in
Ukraine, you're not the, the 

530
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,640
jihadist, the people who are 
willing to, you know, walk into 

531
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,720
a crowd and blow themselves up. 
You know, the Islamic State 

532
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,840
types, you know, the people who 
are really willing to go on 

533
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:17,760
these very likely high death 
operations that are the ones 

534
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:21,200
that that will do most of the 
fighting in the dying, who are 

535
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:25,120
going to end up with the most 
power because they're going to 

536
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,680
do very well on the battlefield,
especially if they you, you 

537
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,800
know, at the moments where they 
have relatively competent 

538
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:36,800
military commanders or ample US 
support like they did in Libya 

539
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:41,880
or Syria. 
So, you know, I think this is a 

540
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,760
real problem and a real 
opportunity to have had that 

541
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,080
movement essentially be 
extinguished. 

542
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,320
But rather you have them going 
into Bosnia. 

543
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:55,840
And I'm sure you know it. 
It creates legend and, you know,

544
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,240
news stories, right? 
Like, this is a whole nother 

545
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:00,640
generation. 
And so you have people who get 

546
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,960
interested in it like that that 
aren't even fighting there or 

547
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,840
you meet fighters there. 
You develop new connections. 

548
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,880
And all this, I think, really 
helps to propel al Qaeda into 

549
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,480
its next major action, which is,
of course, attacking the United 

550
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:18,720
States on 9/11. 
Yeah, I always assumed there was

551
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,880
some selection process with 
every moderate rebel. 

552
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:26,040
When you're trying to overthrow 
1 regime and get people to, you 

553
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:29,840
know, fill the power vacuum that
comes through, I can't imagine 

554
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,080
like you just go knocking around
doors, people call, see if they 

555
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,680
can get a couple weeks off work 
so they could take time and 

556
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:37,280
overthrow the domestic 
government. 

557
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:39,800
No, it's only going to be these 
crazy psychos. 

558
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,280
On average. 
It's not just like there's every

559
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:46,160
Thomas Jefferson waiting to 
seize the throne of a former 

560
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:47,520
Rock King George, Georgia or 
anything. 

561
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:53,240
So in Bosnia, the NATO alliance 
was more or less on the side of 

562
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,120
these jihadists, these 
Mujahideen fighters. 

563
00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,240
Who were they fighting against 
in Bosnia? 

564
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,560
My my understanding is their 
main opposition was the the 

565
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:09,080
Serbian, the Bosnian Serbs. 
And you know, essentially what 

566
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:12,400
you have happened here, Keith, 
is just not a consistent enough 

567
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:15,320
American policy. 
And so, you know, this is the 

568
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:20,480
breakup of Czechoslovakia. 
And rather than allowing either 

569
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,880
this to break up in a way where 
it like, fully breaks up and all

570
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:27,120
these different ethnic groups 
get their own states, it allows 

571
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:30,600
certain states to break off 
initially, but then decides to 

572
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,360
pump the brakes on it. 
And so when it starts pumping 

573
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:38,880
the brakes, now people are 
asking, OK, so am I going to be 

574
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:43,440
a minority group in a state 
that's ruled by a different 

575
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:46,680
ethnicity, a different religion?
And these were real questions 

576
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,080
and things that people are 
willing to go to war over. 

577
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:53,320
And so, you know, I think really
it was the Lisbon agreement that

578
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:57,560
was squashed in the late Bush 
administration, the HW Bush 

579
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,920
administration that kind of, you
know, provokes the fighting to 

580
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,120
break out between the Muslims 
and, and the Bosnian Serbs. 

581
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:07,520
And, and that's ultimately which
leads to I, I, I think there, 

582
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,520
you know, the statements of 
there's ethnic cleansing in 

583
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:14,440
Bosnia and there's a genocide 
going on end up being a little 

584
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:18,520
bit overstated, particularly by 
the US in order to sell the war 

585
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,360
to the Americans, the American 
people. 

586
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:24,719
But the same time you, you know,
there is unnecessary killing of 

587
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:28,360
civilians here, Keith, there is 
a lot of war and fighting going 

588
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:29,719
on. 
And unfortunately a lot of 

589
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,440
people dying. 
The US carries out fairly heavy 

590
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:36,920
air strikes as well. 
When it comes to Kosovo, what 

591
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:40,320
are the main lessons we can 
learn from the Kosovo section of

592
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,239
Provoked? 
Stay stay out of these 

593
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,760
entanglements. 
I guess is is the main 1 Keith 

594
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,040
the lessons right? 
I mean it's the same lesson that

595
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,920
you learn time and time again. 
I guess one of the things that 

596
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:56,520
occurred to me as I've been 
reading provoked so far, Keith, 

597
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:02,080
is just how evil the American 
side has been through all of 

598
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,600
this, right? 
And it's no different between 

599
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:08,320
what happened 30 years ago and 
them trying to lie to the 

600
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:12,120
Soviets to convince them that, 
oh, NATO expansion isn't a big 

601
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,360
deal to the same thing they're 
doing today in the Indo Pacific.

602
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:19,360
Building up all these alliances 
surrounding China and trying to 

603
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,480
convince China that this isn't 
some kind of anti Beijing 

604
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,880
policy. 
It's just it, it's simply 

605
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,080
absurd. 
Are, you know, getting involved 

606
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:31,680
in these little wars in Eastern 
Europe in or in Central Europe 

607
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:33,960
and trying to break up these 
countries in the way that the 

608
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,760
United States want it? 
It simply doesn't work. 

609
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,800
Whenever you try to do this, it 
first creates violence. 

610
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,600
It creates, you know, anti 
American sentiment in these 

611
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,240
countries. 
And then ultimately, a lot of 

612
00:35:45,240 --> 00:35:48,640
times it goes the exact opposite
way that the Americans want, or 

613
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:50,200
at least that the American 
people want. 

614
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,840
Like, I, I think Washington is 
probably happy and that Gaddafi 

615
00:35:54,840 --> 00:36:00,840
no longer rules Libya and that 
they prefer a weak Libya, like a

616
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:04,200
failed state where, you know, 
there's this migration crisis, 

617
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,480
hundreds of thousands of people 
have died trying to get from 

618
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,320
Africa to Europe. 
There's all these, you know, 

619
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:13,880
slave trade going on. 
Just horrific situation in 

620
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,280
Libya, right? 
The situation for the people of 

621
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:20,280
the Libya and neighboring 
countries is significantly worse

622
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,400
because the US overthrew Moammar
Gaddafi, right? 

623
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:27,480
All, all that that's true. 
I think Washington prefers that 

624
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,920
they, I'm sure they would say 
that they prefer Libya as a 

625
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,480
flourishing democracy, but 
that's not an option. 

626
00:36:34,720 --> 00:36:39,480
So if the options are Gaddafi or
a failed state, they prefer a 

627
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,760
failed state because Gaddafi can
stand up to some of the things 

628
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,840
that the US is trying to do in 
the region or Israel is trying 

629
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,320
to do in the region in 
particular. 

630
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:51,600
The same thing with Assad. 
I mean, it's absolutely too 

631
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:55,200
absurd to say, Keith, you know, 
would you I prefer Bashar 

632
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,400
al-Assad, a somewhat secular 
dictator who at least allows 

633
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:03,360
Syria's Christian and other 
minority communities that live 

634
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:06,120
in Syria? 
Or would you rather have Al 

635
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:13,080
Jilani, a man who on 9/11 saw 
what Osama bin Laden did and was

636
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:17,240
inspired to fight on the side of
the jihadist, not not the 

637
00:37:17,240 --> 00:37:19,880
Americans, right? 
He wasn't like your neighbor who

638
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:24,560
saw 3000 people die on 9/11 and 
thought, I need a signed up for 

639
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:26,760
the US military to protect 
America. 

640
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,400
He saw that and thought, oh, we 
actually could fight the 

641
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,840
Americans. 
I'm going to go and join al 

642
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,760
Qaeda in Iraq. 
This is a man who was allied 

643
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,800
with al Baghdadi, the, the, the 
leader of ISIS and the, there's 

644
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:43,560
American pundits today, Keith, 
telling us that that is 

645
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:47,160
preferable, that Jolani is 
preferable to Bashar al-Assad. 

646
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:51,920
It, it's insanity. 
But this is this is what these 

647
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:57,360
people do, and even prime. 
Minister of Israel A Hood Barack

648
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:01,920
is on camera explaining, well, 
Netanyahu actually has a plan to

649
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:06,680
start supporting the Muslim 
faction in Palestine, Hamas, 

650
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,920
because this will weaken the 
Palestinian Liberation 

651
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:13,880
Organization and the Black 
September fronts, you know, 

652
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:18,600
responsible for the the Munich 
event in the terrorist operation

653
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:22,360
in the 80s or something. 
They constantly, I mean, when 

654
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:27,840
you look at the eight years of 
Bush Junior, the assumption was 

655
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:31,520
we need a big government because
we got to be protected from 

656
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,960
radical Islam. 
Forget the entire Cold War. 

657
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,120
This is a new justification for 
why we need a big government, 

658
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,640
radical Islam. 
It's been around since the year 

659
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:46,240
600 AD, but 2001 is when we 
really need to step up the fight

660
00:38:46,240 --> 00:38:49,280
against them. 
OK, even if you believe that, if

661
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:51,160
you believe that, you. 
Have to look at all these 

662
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:51,960
counter. 
Examples. 

663
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:55,200
You have to be able to look at 
the Bosnia example and Libya. 

664
00:38:55,720 --> 00:39:00,240
Not to mention Scott makes the 
case that the US was basically 

665
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:04,400
the Air Force for Al Qaeda in 
the Arabian Peninsula from what,

666
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:08,800
2015 to 2020 while fighting the 
Houthi regime and Lloyd 

667
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,120
Austin's. 
Like, I got so mad I almost 

668
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:15,240
wrote a letter that that that's 
the defiant spirit we have among

669
00:39:15,240 --> 00:39:20,120
the political elites today. 
Anything else on Clinton before 

670
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,560
we go to Bush Junior? 
Yeah. 

671
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,320
Again. 
You know, for anybody who's 

672
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,240
reading the book, there's a 
million things that me and Keith

673
00:39:27,240 --> 00:39:29,960
are leaving out that's in here. 
However, I think it's going to 

674
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:33,680
take Scott like a month to to 
actually do the audio book, to 

675
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,760
read all these chapters. 
And so, you know, we can't get 

676
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:38,960
into all of it, but. 
But there's so much more in 

677
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:39,320
there. 
Yeah. 

678
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,560
So so let's talk about the the 
Bush, the Bush blunders. 

679
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:47,320
Who was George Bush? 
'S first phone call when it 

680
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,640
comes to major leaders after the
attacks on September 11th. 

681
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,960
Oh, Vladimir. 
So I mean, this is, this is so 

682
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,640
foundational to, to my 
worldview, Keith, because I, you

683
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,360
know, you were, I think just a 
couple years younger than me, 

684
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:04,680
but I was just old enough to 
kind of understand what was 

685
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:08,520
happening on 9/11. 
I was 10 years old at the time. 

686
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:12,240
And I remember everybody made a 
really big deal out of Vladimir 

687
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,520
Putin being the 1st. 
World leader to call Bush after 

688
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:18,920
the attacks and this is what 
supposed to signal what was 

689
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,200
reinforced to me by Arnold 
Schwarzenegger in Terminator 2 

690
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:25,840
which was that the Americans and
the Russians were friends now 

691
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:29,720
and so Russia was going to allow
the Americans and I think they 

692
00:40:29,720 --> 00:40:34,280
did to use Soviet bases in the 
you know former Soviet Central 

693
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:37,960
Asian republics I think 
Uzbekistan and a couple other of

694
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:41,640
these countries they provided 
bases that allowed Americans to 

695
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,280
get it their troops into to 
Afghanistan. 

696
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:48,840
Now I don't know maybe Putin had
some grand planned here Keith 

697
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,840
where he was going to 
essentially transport the 

698
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:56,560
Americans to their empire doom 
in Afghanistan and this was just

699
00:40:56,560 --> 00:41:00,560
a law employed by him but I 
think in reality it was a real 

700
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:04,400
effort by Putin and the Russians
to signal going forward that we 

701
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:07,240
do not want to be enemies with 
the Americans. 

702
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:11,240
I think at that time, Putin was 
still very much interested in 

703
00:41:11,240 --> 00:41:14,200
integrating Russia into kind of 
the Western world and the 

704
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,040
Western world economy. 
There was. 

705
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,240
There's a lot of benefits to 
Russia economically. 

706
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,720
That's why they built the Nord 
Stream one and two pipelines and

707
00:41:22,720 --> 00:41:26,040
all these other pipelines that 
bring energy into Europe because

708
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:28,760
they wanted to be a part of the 
European economy and the 

709
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,600
European order. 
And it was really Washington 

710
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,360
that insisted that that cannot 
happen. 

711
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:35,960
And so. 
Yeah. 

712
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,200
Yeah. 
Keith, you know, that is a 

713
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:41,720
really important point to 
constantly made to the American 

714
00:41:41,720 --> 00:41:45,600
people, that Vladimir Putin the,
the, the guy that we're now told

715
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:49,680
is Hitler was the guy who called
and helped our president on 

716
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,360
America's worst day. 
Oh. 

717
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,760
Yeah, exactly. 
So when it comes to something 

718
00:41:55,760 --> 00:42:00,280
like Nordstrom, I can just 
imagine explaining this to my 

719
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:05,840
great grandfather who witnessed 
to Mass wars between the Germans

720
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:09,360
and the Russians. 
The fact that these people have 

721
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:13,680
some sort of significant amount 
of trade making it in their 

722
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:15,800
interest to not go to war with 
each other. 

723
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:18,160
This would have been an absolute
dream come true. 

724
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:23,000
So the fact that there's like no
investigation as opposed as to 

725
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,960
what actually happened when it 
comes to the blowing up of the 

726
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,920
Nordstrom pipeline. 
Basically, I heard it was Putin 

727
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,960
for a year and then Seymour 
Hersh said, well, it was 

728
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,800
actually the Florida divers. 
And then the New York Times 

729
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:38,520
comes out and says, well, it was
actually the Ukrainians who was 

730
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:40,920
behind Nordstrom. 
I got to. 

731
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:45,040
Say of the the major narratives 
put out is certainly the one put

732
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,280
out by Seymour Hersh makes the 
most sense. 

733
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:50,000
The one that's put forward by 
the Western intelligence 

734
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:55,040
community is that some 
Ukrainians on a small yacht were

735
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:58,360
able to plant these explosives. 
It just seems like two major of 

736
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:02,200
an operation and and Seymour 
Hersh is able to lay out a lot 

737
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:05,280
more details and explain and how
the Americans were able to get 

738
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,560
it done. 
There's at least some evidence, 

739
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:11,680
you know, the location of the 
ships, the timing of the war 

740
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:14,960
games and things like that that 
do back up Seymour Hersh's 

741
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,880
story. 
That being said, it hasn't been 

742
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:21,480
confirmed in a way that I feel 
comfortable saying that that's 

743
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:25,440
exactly what happened. 
I and Keith, this is something 

744
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:28,440
that I was wrong about after the
Nordstrom pipelines were bombed,

745
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:30,640
I really didn't think it was the
Americans. 

746
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:34,240
I it was I think the largest 
release of methane in the 

747
00:43:34,240 --> 00:43:36,400
history of the world are 
something like, you know, this 

748
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,840
is a a major environmental 
catastrophe, right? 

749
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:45,320
This is an act of economic 
terrorism on on Russia, and the 

750
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,720
idea that you would blow up some
civilian infrastructure that 

751
00:43:48,720 --> 00:43:52,720
brings natural gas into Europe 
into Russia, one of the core 

752
00:43:52,720 --> 00:43:56,080
members of the NATO alliance 
just seemed too stupid to 

753
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:58,120
believe. 
That being said, I never thought

754
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:01,520
the Russians did it either. 
But at this point, I think the 

755
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:04,680
most compelling case is that the
Biden administration was behind 

756
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:06,240
it. 
So. 

757
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,720
This is gas going from Russia to
Germany, correct? 

758
00:44:09,720 --> 00:44:12,280
Yes, yes. 
OK, I just want to make. 

759
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,080
Sure. 
That that that's what I thought 

760
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,160
it was. 
So briefly as far as NATO 

761
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,960
expansion under Bush, we have 
expansion into Bulgaria, 

762
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:24,560
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, 
Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. 

763
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,920
This is a whole section in 
provoked people can check out. 

764
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:31,840
One thing I wanted to ask you 
from this section in particular,

765
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:35,320
what was the ABM treaty? 
Yeah. 

766
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:37,800
So this is the. 
Anti ballistic missile Treaty 

767
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:41,280
and it was essentially a a 
treaty that was set up to 

768
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:44,360
guarantee that the US and the 
Soviet Union, this was during 

769
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:49,400
the Nitzen administration 1972 
wouldn't build anti missile 

770
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,240
systems. 
And the idea, Keith, is that 

771
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:55,960
this ensures mutually insured 
destruction, right? 

772
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:59,880
That no one side could ever 
shoot down all the other side's 

773
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:03,520
incoming missiles and therefore 
would have the ability to carry 

774
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,440
out a nuclear first strike on 
the other side. 

775
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:09,720
So the Bush administration 
exited from this treaty. 

776
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:14,120
I think really that the 
significance here, Keith, is 

777
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:18,360
that the US takes after they 
exit from this treaty, they go 

778
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:22,480
ahead and they start to put 
their Aegis ashore, anti air 

779
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,080
defense systems or they start to
plan to under the Bush 

780
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:28,000
administration in Poland and 
Romania. 

781
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:33,440
Now the reason that this is so 
provocative is these systems 

782
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:39,120
while they shoot could fire the 
Aegis ashore are the Aegis anti 

783
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:44,000
missile systems, which are on 
the law of American destroyers 

784
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,440
and other naval craft. 
They can also fire Tomahawk 

785
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,920
missiles, which the US used to 
feel the variant of which could 

786
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:54,520
fire a a nuclear weapon. 
And so we'll put a nuclear 

787
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,720
armed, potentially a nuclear 
armed cruise missile launcher 

788
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:01,360
within range of Moscow And and 
that was just too much for the 

789
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:04,280
Russians to tolerate. 
And so I, I think that's the big

790
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:08,200
part of the US gain now the, 
and, and I'm sure that was a 

791
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:09,880
part of the plan all along, 
right? 

792
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:12,840
You know, we're, we're going to 
get out of this treaty and then 

793
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,160
we're going to tell the Russians
that we're going to build 

794
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,960
missile defense systems in 
Eastern Europe. 

795
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:20,720
But it has nothing to do with 
Russia. 

796
00:46:20,720 --> 00:46:23,120
This isn't about the Russians, 
It's about the Iranians. 

797
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:27,600
We have to make sure Iran, which
doesn't have missiles with the 

798
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:31,520
range to hit Europe or Poland or
Romania, we have to make sure 

799
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,760
that they're not going to fire a
nuclear weapon which they do not

800
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:38,600
have at Poland or Romania. 
So it, it's just completely 

801
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:41,040
absurd. 
It's absolutely obvious that 

802
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,840
this isn't about Iran, it's 
about Russia. 

803
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:46,600
And then they also tell the 
Russians, well, look, you know, 

804
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:48,840
these are kind of minor missile 
defense system. 

805
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:53,120
So it's not like, you know, this
could really prevent a nuclear 

806
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:56,400
first strike or Russian nuclear 
strike on Europe. 

807
00:46:56,720 --> 00:46:58,480
And So what are you so nervous 
about? 

808
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,600
Why do you why do you care that,
you know, we're we're developing

809
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:03,960
are we're putting these systems 
into Eastern Europe? 

810
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:07,640
And the answer is, is because of
the launchers, the MK41 

811
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:11,000
launchers that can fire the 
Tomahawk cruise missiles. 

812
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:15,160
And so, yes, that, you know, the
US says this is a defensive 

813
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:18,680
system, but it's just like a 
great the metaphor for the whole

814
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:22,200
alliance, Keith, right where, 
you know, we say it's defensive,

815
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:25,400
but really it's it's an 
offensive weapon because sealed 

816
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:28,600
in a defensive package. 
This is from a section. 

817
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:34,200
Titled Nyet means Nyet. 
The memos In February 2008, 

818
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:38,760
Ambassador Burns William Burns, 
the US ambassador to Russia, 

819
00:47:39,240 --> 00:47:42,840
wrote a memo for Secretary of 
State Condoleezza Rice titled 

820
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:47,720
Nyet means Nyet. 
In the memo Burns wrote during 

821
00:47:47,720 --> 00:47:51,720
his annual review of Russia's 
foreign policy, January 22nd to 

822
00:47:51,720 --> 00:47:56,400
23rd, Foreign Minister Lavrov 
stressed that Russia had to view

823
00:47:56,400 --> 00:48:01,040
continued eastward expansion of 
NATO, particularly to Ukraine 

824
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:03,960
and Georgia, as a potential 
military threat. 

825
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:07,600
While Russia might believe 
statements from the West that 

826
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:12,040
NATO was not directed against 
Russia, when 1 looked at recent 

827
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:16,680
military activities in NATO 
countries, establishment of US 

828
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:20,560
forward operating locations, 
etcetera, they had to be 

829
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:25,000
evaluated not by stated 
intentions, but by potential. 

830
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:29,000
Lavrov stressed. 
That maintaining Russia's sphere

831
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:32,840
of influence in the neighborhood
was anachronistic and 

832
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:36,200
acknowledged that the US and 
Europe had legitimate interests 

833
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:39,680
in the region. 
But, he argued, while countries 

834
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,320
were free to make their own 
decisions about their security 

835
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:47,000
and which political military 
structures to join, they needed 

836
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:49,920
to keep in mind the impact on 
their neighbors. 

837
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:54,960
During a press briefing January 
22nd in response to the question

838
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:59,800
about Ukraine's request for a 
MAP NATO Membership Action Plan,

839
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:04,840
the MFA said a radical new 
expansion of NATO may bring 

840
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:08,040
about a serious political 
military shift that will 

841
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:11,520
inevitably affect the security 
interests of Russia. 

842
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:14,960
The spokesman went on to stress 
that Russia was bound with 

843
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:21,360
Ukraine by bilateral obligations
set forth in the 1997 Treaty on 

844
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:24,400
Friendship, Cooperation and 
Partnership Ownership, in which 

845
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:29,400
both parties undertook to 
refrain from participation in or

846
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:34,600
support of any actions capable 
of prejudicing the security of 

847
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:37,000
the other side. 
The spokesman noted that 

848
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:41,240
Ukraine's likely integration 
into NATO would seriously 

849
00:49:41,240 --> 00:49:46,120
complicate the many sided 
Russian Ukrainian relations and 

850
00:49:46,240 --> 00:49:49,120
that Russia would have to take 
appropriate measures. 

851
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:54,760
The spokesman added one has the 
impression that the present 

852
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:59,200
Ukrainian leadership regards 
rapprochement with NATO largely 

853
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:03,120
as an alternative to good 
neighborly ties with the Russian

854
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:06,120
Federation. 
Ukraine and Georgia's NATO 

855
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:10,160
aspirations not only touch a raw
nerve in Russia, they engender 

856
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:13,880
serious concerns about the 
consequences for stability in 

857
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:16,840
the region. 
Not only does Russia perceive 

858
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:20,880
encirclement in efforts to 
undermine Russia's influence in 

859
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:25,160
the region, but it also fears 
unpredictable and uncontrolled 

860
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:28,480
consequences which would 
seriously affect Russian 

861
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,560
security interests. 
Experts tell us that Russia is 

862
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:35,520
particularly worried that the 
strong divisions in Ukraine over

863
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:39,600
NATO membership, with much of 
the ethnic Russian community 

864
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:43,240
against membership, could lead 
to a major split involving 

865
00:50:43,240 --> 00:50:45,400
violence or, at worst, civil 
war. 

866
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,880
In that eventuality, Russia 
would have to decide whether to 

867
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:54,240
intervene, a decision Russia 
does not want to have to face. 

868
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:58,640
For the last three sections of 
this book, I wanted to invite 

869
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:01,680
Dave Decamp on. 
Dave Decamp is the news editor 

870
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:04,840
of antiwar.com. 
He's also the host of Anti War 

871
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:07,840
News with Dave Decamp. 
Check out the links in the 

872
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,520
description to his show on X for
that. 

873
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:15,200
So Dave, the next chapter that 
we're looking at is the Obama 

874
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:17,120
chapter. 
What would what was the Maidan 

875
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:19,360
Revolution? 
Yeah, so. 

876
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,120
I mean this was the. 
Major turning point here for the

877
00:51:22,120 --> 00:51:24,920
current crisis, the current war 
that we're in. 

878
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:29,280
I'm sure you went over the 
promises for NATO to join 

879
00:51:29,720 --> 00:51:33,080
Ukraine, but that kind of, you 
know, went away for a little 

880
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:35,480
while when Viktor Yanukovych was
re elected. 

881
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:41,160
And the Maidan was this 
overthrow of Yanukovych that was

882
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:44,640
totally backed by the US and 
other Western powers. 

883
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:47,480
And you know, they were 
completely, it was completely in

884
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:49,240
your face, completely in 
Russia's face. 

885
00:51:49,240 --> 00:51:52,120
You had these American 
politicians going over there and

886
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:55,480
speaking to the protesters, 
Victoria Nuland bragging about 

887
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:59,480
all this funding that the US has
given Ukraine, essentially 

888
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,480
funding the opposition, funding 
these Ng OS involved in these 

889
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:04,880
St. protests. 
And then you had kind of, you 

890
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:07,840
know, the extremist element of 
it, the the far right. 

891
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:11,520
I know that word has lost its 
meaning over the years, but when

892
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:13,920
we're talking about Ukraine, you
know, we mean it kind of in the 

893
00:52:15,240 --> 00:52:16,240
traditional. 
Sense that you. 

894
00:52:16,240 --> 00:52:20,160
Think of it far right, you know,
Nazi sympathizers, the 

895
00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:24,200
descendants of the the 
collaborators with the Nazis 

896
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:27,320
during World War 2. 
They were kind of the, the, the,

897
00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:30,920
the muscle for the overthrow 
that ended up with Yanukovych 

898
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:34,240
fleeing Russia under the threat 
of violence from these these 

899
00:52:34,240 --> 00:52:37,520
gangs on the street. 
And it was successful. 

900
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:41,720
It was a successful US backed 
overthrow of, of Yanukovych, of 

901
00:52:41,720 --> 00:52:44,160
this more Russian friendly 
leader. 

902
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:47,680
What was? 
Discussed on the phone call 

903
00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:50,120
between. 
Victoria Nuland and Jeffrey 

904
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:51,880
Pyatt. 
Why is this important? 

905
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:54,040
Well, this was huge. 
I. 

906
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:56,280
Remember when this came? 
Out, you know, because there was

907
00:52:56,280 --> 00:53:00,520
all this talk about the US being
involved in this, in these 

908
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:04,200
protests and, you know, clearly 
again, we saw the, the 

909
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:06,160
politicians speaking and 
everything, but you didn't 

910
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,760
really know exactly the extent. 
At least I didn't at the time. 

911
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:11,720
I wasn't as into, and I'm sure 
Scott did at the time. 

912
00:53:12,120 --> 00:53:15,480
But and then this phone call 
came out and it's Victoria 

913
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:19,400
Nuland, who's basically the 
American point man point woman 

914
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:24,680
on this coup at the time, 
talking to the US ambassador to 

915
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,760
Ukraine and and discussing who 
should be in the next government

916
00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:30,320
and who they mentioned yachts 
Anuk. 

917
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:32,960
Yachts is the guy is kind of the
famous line from that. 

918
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:35,520
Well, F the EU is what 
everybody, you know, what kind 

919
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:36,960
of what the news media went 
with. 

920
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:40,400
But the big story there was they
were discussing who should be in

921
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:43,640
the next Ukrainian government. 
And then yachts Anuk was the 

922
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:45,680
Prime Minister after the 
overthrow. 

923
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:50,120
How was did the? 
Maidan revolution split 

924
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:54,160
Ukrainians in the east and West,
so you had. 

925
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:58,000
You know this more. 
Pro western government come in 

926
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:01,000
and western, you know, in the 
sense of Europe and the US, but 

927
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:03,160
also in the sense of western 
Ukraine. 

928
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:07,200
And they were very hostile to 
the Russian speakers and the 

929
00:54:07,200 --> 00:54:11,080
ethnic Russians in eastern 
Ukraine, in Crimea. 

930
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:15,800
And you know, the this gets into
the the Donbass war and 

931
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:19,200
everything in in Donetsk and 
Luhansk, the eastern oblast, 

932
00:54:19,200 --> 00:54:21,000
where there was a, a civil war 
after. 

933
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:24,800
And, you know, they, they 
rejected this post coup 

934
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:28,520
government and, and they had 
some at first, as I understand 

935
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:32,360
it, pretty simple demands that 
they wanted Russia to continue 

936
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:35,120
to be an official language. 
That was something that the post

937
00:54:35,120 --> 00:54:37,400
coup government wanted to get 
rid of. 

938
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,120
They wanted their own control 
over, you know, who is their 

939
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:41,880
governor and, and who was in 
power. 

940
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:44,800
And this led to the civil war, 
which I know we'll get into. 

941
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:49,400
So that was basically, you know,
the split is that you have this 

942
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:54,240
openly hostile government coming
into power in Kiev and the 

943
00:54:54,240 --> 00:54:58,200
people in the east who are more 
aligned with Russia didn't like 

944
00:54:58,200 --> 00:54:59,120
it. 
They rejected it. 

945
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:02,680
What was? 
The anti terrorist. 

946
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:06,520
Operation that Scott discusses 
on page 324. 

947
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:10,640
So this is the war, the start. 
Of the war in the Donbass, when 

948
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:14,080
you had these, you know, they 
call them separatists, but their

949
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:18,200
original thing that they wanted 
was more autonomy and again, 

950
00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:21,800
just respect for the Russian 
language. 

951
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:24,120
Just just a big part of this 
thing. 

952
00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:27,520
And Ukraine launched this 
so-called anti terrorism 

953
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:30,320
operation. 
And this was the start of the 

954
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:34,920
Donbass war that continued from 
2014 to the Russian invasion 

955
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:36,480
that started the war we're in 
now. 

956
00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:39,600
And you know, it was a stalemate
for a while, but this was 

957
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:41,240
unfinished. 
You know, it was a frozen 

958
00:55:41,240 --> 00:55:45,160
conflict and it actually did 
ramp up before the invasion. 

959
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:48,480
That was a kind of another 
factor in the Russian invasion. 

960
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:52,640
But you know, what Scott gets 
into in the book, which is 

961
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:54,880
really important, which I 
didn't, you know, remember this 

962
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:59,120
I didn't realize was how the US 
was completely, you know, 

963
00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:04,400
backing this encouraging Ukraine
to launch this war instead of, 

964
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:07,480
you know, meet some of these 
demands from these Eastern 

965
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:11,520
Ukrainians. 
And also we we learned in very 

966
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:15,200
recently as well from the New 
York Times earlier this year 

967
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:20,440
that the CIA, you know, 
immediately was involved with 

968
00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:23,680
the in this war, built up all 
these intelligence spaces. 

969
00:56:23,880 --> 00:56:25,880
There was another report from 
the Washington Post that came 

970
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:29,760
out last year that said how. 
That they got. 

971
00:56:29,760 --> 00:56:33,160
To work right away building up 
Ukraine's intelligence agencies 

972
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:37,080
so they can, you know, commit 
assassinations behind enemy 

973
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:38,360
lines. 
They can gather all this 

974
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:42,640
intelligence about the Dom Bass 
forces, which did have some 

975
00:56:42,640 --> 00:56:45,440
support from Russia. 
You know, as Scott says, 

976
00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:47,800
deniable special forces were 
sent over there. 

977
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:51,840
So it was a huge intelligence 
haul for the US And really, 

978
00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:55,200
again, like it, you know, for 
someone like me who's critical 

979
00:56:55,200 --> 00:56:58,520
of US intervention, when those 
reports came out, like I knew 

980
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:02,440
that the CIA was involved. 
But the extent it's really 

981
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:04,280
unbelievable. 
And and, you know, when we talk 

982
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:06,160
about this, you always got to 
put the shoe on the other foot. 

983
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:10,560
It's like we can't even imagine 
a similar situation in the US on

984
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:14,880
the Canadian border or something
or on the Mexican border where 

985
00:57:15,320 --> 00:57:19,200
you know, the the Russia 
intelligence is involved in in 

986
00:57:19,200 --> 00:57:22,520
these wars. 
But anyway, it is this was just 

987
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:27,920
such a big provocation really, 
the US encouragement and US 

988
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:31,040
involvement in this war. 
What were the? 

989
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:34,800
Minsk peace deals. 
The Minsk deals were meant to 

990
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:38,160
end the. 
War and give these the the 

991
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:42,960
autonomous republics give them a
bit of autonomy, but they were 

992
00:57:42,960 --> 00:57:46,240
to remain part of Ukraine 
essentially they were going to 

993
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:50,560
agree to have their own 
elections and again give them 

994
00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:55,480
some sort of autonomy. 
And they were negotiated by they

995
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:59,600
were brokered by France, Germany
and and and Belarus. 

996
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:04,400
It took place in Belarus. 
And, you know, we've since 

997
00:58:04,400 --> 00:58:07,400
learned from basically all 
sides, Poroshenko, who's the 

998
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:11,040
president at the time, Merkel, 
who is the German Chancellor at 

999
00:58:11,040 --> 00:58:15,320
the time, that their view of 
those agreements now is that the

1000
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:19,200
purpose of them was to give 
Ukraine time to fight this war, 

1001
00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:22,960
basically, essentially saying 
that they never intended to 

1002
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:25,880
completely fulfill those and end
the war. 

1003
00:58:25,880 --> 00:58:27,960
They wanted to get ready for a 
war with Russia. 

1004
00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:31,800
Now, that could also be kind of 
a space saving thing for Merkel 

1005
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:34,720
and these other Western 
officials involved because they 

1006
00:58:35,000 --> 00:58:37,840
received a lot of criticism, 
especially in from the Russia 

1007
00:58:37,840 --> 00:58:40,720
Hawks in the US who didn't want 
anything to do with a peace 

1008
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:43,360
deal. 
But it is important, you know, 

1009
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:46,760
from Russia's perspective, if 
those deals were fulfilled, this

1010
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:50,400
whole thing, and, and, you know,
if NATO didn't get so entrenched

1011
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:52,600
in Ukraine that this whole thing
could have been avoided. 

1012
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:55,840
Let's move on. 
To the Trump. 

1013
00:58:55,840 --> 00:59:00,840
Section of the book Why is 
Russiagate relevant and what 

1014
00:59:00,840 --> 00:59:04,960
were the Russiagate claims and 
were any of them founded, well, 

1015
00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:07,360
Russiagate? 
I mean, man, there's so much to 

1016
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:10,920
get into it with Russiagate. 
And, you know, a big thing is 

1017
00:59:10,920 --> 00:59:15,440
that it's very relevant because 
we don't know if if Trump would 

1018
00:59:15,440 --> 00:59:18,360
have been such a Russia hawk if 
not for Russiagate. 

1019
00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:21,960
There's all these claims that, 
you know, the big claims were 

1020
00:59:21,960 --> 00:59:24,640
that the Trump campaign colluded
with Russia. 

1021
00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:28,360
And then the other claim was 
that, you know, Russian 

1022
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:30,440
interference swayed the 
election. 

1023
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:35,160
And what they narrowed it down 
to was Facebook ads was about 

1024
00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:38,480
like $100,000 in Facebook ads 
that some Russian troll farm 

1025
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:41,800
took out. 
And then the allegation that 

1026
00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:45,840
Russia was behind the DNC emails
that were published by 

1027
00:59:46,600 --> 00:59:50,040
WikiLeaks, which never proven, 
you know, despite even though 

1028
00:59:50,040 --> 00:59:53,680
that is out there now, if you 
ever read any mainstream 

1029
00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:56,200
reporting that mentions that 
they they call it like the 

1030
00:59:56,200 --> 00:59:59,960
Russian leak to the DNC. 
And Scott gets into all this in 

1031
00:59:59,960 --> 01:00:01,800
in the book. 
But again, I think, you know, 

1032
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:06,360
the reason why it's so relevant,
again, is because Trump did. 

1033
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:09,120
Kind of have some. 
Instinct to be less hawkish on 

1034
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:11,600
Russia. 
He ended up being very hawkish 

1035
01:00:11,640 --> 01:00:15,640
on Russia. 
But if Russiagate didn't? 

1036
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:16,720
Happen. 
Would that have been the case? 

1037
01:00:16,720 --> 01:00:19,440
You know, I guess we'll never 
know that answer, but I, I think

1038
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:23,160
it played a big role in pushing 
him to take this harder line 

1039
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:25,440
against Russia to do things that
Obama didn't do. 

1040
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:30,200
Sebastian Gorka. 
Claims that Russia that Trump 

1041
01:00:30,200 --> 01:00:33,320
ordered the killing of like 300 
Russians in Syria. 

1042
01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:36,720
Probably like Wagner associates 
or something. 

1043
01:00:36,880 --> 01:00:39,360
Do you know anything about this?
Is that what you're referring 

1044
01:00:39,360 --> 01:00:41,960
to? 
That's one of the things, yeah, 

1045
01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:43,520
I mean that. 
Was in Syria that's something 

1046
01:00:43,520 --> 01:00:45,840
that they like to brag about I 
mean, I, I haven't seen Trump 

1047
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:49,240
mention this but a lot of these 
Trump allies who are more 

1048
01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:52,880
hawkish say, you know the number
I've heard is 180 and they were 

1049
01:00:52,880 --> 01:00:56,920
Wagner mercenaries in Syria. 
They were just kind of moving 

1050
01:00:57,200 --> 01:01:00,440
toward AUS base and the US 
attacked them and bombed them 

1051
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:03,680
and killed a lot of them. 
And I mean, you know, that's 

1052
01:01:03,680 --> 01:01:06,920
basically Russian forces. 
So yeah, you know, things like 

1053
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:09,320
that. 
Also tearing up the nuclear arms

1054
01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:13,680
control treaties and giving. 
Missiles to. 

1055
01:01:13,680 --> 01:01:17,640
Ukraine, you know Trump saying, 
oh, Obama only sent them pillows

1056
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:19,240
and blankets for the Donbass 
war? 

1057
01:01:20,960 --> 01:01:22,600
Well. 
I just remember. 

1058
01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:27,040
Russiagate being Hillary Clinton
said on the debate stage, 17 

1059
01:01:27,040 --> 01:01:31,840
Intel agencies, civilian and 
military have confirmed that 

1060
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:33,920
Russia was the one who hacked my
emails. 

1061
01:01:34,200 --> 01:01:38,960
I know President Biden said 51 
intelligence officials, 5 CIA 

1062
01:01:38,960 --> 01:01:42,400
directors from both parties have
confirmed that what he's 

1063
01:01:42,400 --> 01:01:45,360
referring to my son's laptop is 
a Russian plan. 

1064
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:49,400
I know they said that Putin was 
ordering the assassination of 

1065
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:52,480
Americans in Afghanistan and 
paying the Taliban for this. 

1066
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:55,920
I mean, this is just, they're 
just setting the stage for 

1067
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:59,440
creating the evil guy who it 
seemed like they wanted a regime

1068
01:01:59,440 --> 01:02:01,320
change war. 
Do you know anything about them 

1069
01:02:01,320 --> 01:02:05,200
wanting a regime change war, or 
is it just to weaken Russia like

1070
01:02:05,200 --> 01:02:07,520
the Defense Planning Guidance 
memorandum said? 

1071
01:02:07,520 --> 01:02:10,440
Just weaken all competitors so 
we could beat the dominant 

1072
01:02:10,440 --> 01:02:12,040
force? 
Yeah. 

1073
01:02:12,040 --> 01:02:13,880
You mean a regime change? 
War actually in. 

1074
01:02:13,880 --> 01:02:16,800
Russia in Russia against Putin. 
Yeah, I. 

1075
01:02:16,800 --> 01:02:21,120
Mean, I think that's kind of a. 
Maybe a dream of some of these 

1076
01:02:21,120 --> 01:02:25,360
people, but I don't think they 
actually have plans for regime 

1077
01:02:25,360 --> 01:02:28,040
change. 
I mean, unless, you know, you 

1078
01:02:28,040 --> 01:02:30,920
never know. 
Some of them probably wish that.

1079
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:35,640
But you know, I think the 
purpose is to really just hurt 

1080
01:02:35,640 --> 01:02:38,440
Russia as much as possible, hurt
its allies. 

1081
01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:43,360
And right now, I mean, today you
see Syria, Bashar al-Assad just 

1082
01:02:43,360 --> 01:02:45,400
fell. 
One of the real big reasons why 

1083
01:02:45,400 --> 01:02:48,640
Hillary and these people really 
wanted to go after Russia was 

1084
01:02:48,640 --> 01:02:51,800
because Russia intervened on 
Assad's side in that war. 

1085
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:57,080
And Biden's speech that he gave 
after Assad fell, you know, he's

1086
01:02:57,080 --> 01:02:59,840
celebrating it even though these
al Qaeda linked militants are 

1087
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:02,960
the ones who took power. 
He's saying, oh, this is the 

1088
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:08,320
first time ever that Russia 
couldn't defend this regime, You

1089
01:03:08,320 --> 01:03:11,480
know, gloating over the fact 
that you're crediting, crediting

1090
01:03:12,280 --> 01:03:14,760
Assad falling to the US support 
for Ukraine. 

1091
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:19,880
So it's all connected, you know,
they're just, it's all, it's all

1092
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:23,560
right if al Qaeda wins just so. 
Long as Putin feels bad to make 

1093
01:03:23,560 --> 01:03:26,480
him humiliated, we can give Al 
Qaeda its own country. 

1094
01:03:26,880 --> 01:03:29,680
Scott mentions War Games on page
480. 

1095
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:31,280
What are these? 
Why are they significant? 

1096
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:34,440
So he. 
Gets into this. 

1097
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:37,960
Report from Rand, which is a 
Pentagon funded think tank 

1098
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:40,640
called Extending Russia. 
And basically all these ways 

1099
01:03:40,640 --> 01:03:43,840
that they could hurt Russia, put
Russia under pressure. 

1100
01:03:44,200 --> 01:03:47,240
And that includes war games. 
And one of the things that was 

1101
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:50,640
very provocative that NATO was 
doing in Ukraine was conducting 

1102
01:03:50,640 --> 01:03:52,920
big war games. 
And whenever you see the press 

1103
01:03:52,920 --> 01:03:56,720
releases them, they talk about 
these things like they're just 

1104
01:03:56,720 --> 01:03:59,320
routine business, you know, 
nothing to worry about here, 

1105
01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:01,400
these big war games. 
And they were actually doing 

1106
01:04:01,400 --> 01:04:06,120
bombing runs in the Black Sea, 
like getting 12 miles off the 

1107
01:04:06,120 --> 01:04:10,000
coast of Russia at one point not
long before the invasion. 

1108
01:04:10,000 --> 01:04:13,800
These are things we covered at 
antiwar.com, which a lot of 

1109
01:04:13,800 --> 01:04:15,560
people might think were 
insignificant. 

1110
01:04:15,560 --> 01:04:17,280
But again, you put the shoe on 
the other foot. 

1111
01:04:17,280 --> 01:04:22,520
If Russia or China is doing big 
war games in Mexico and South 

1112
01:04:22,520 --> 01:04:26,360
America, up in Canada, the US 
would not be happy about it. 

1113
01:04:27,360 --> 01:04:31,760
And essentially, you know, that 
think tank Rand, the idea was to

1114
01:04:31,760 --> 01:04:34,480
kind of put the pressure on them
to to make them nervous. 

1115
01:04:35,120 --> 01:04:38,760
And this is definitely a big 
thing that that led to the 

1116
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:43,440
invasion, just this presence of 
US and NATO forces actually in 

1117
01:04:43,440 --> 01:04:45,240
Ukraine and and in the Black 
Sea. 

1118
01:04:45,240 --> 01:04:49,200
There was a big provocation. 
In 2021, a British warship 

1119
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:52,080
sailed 12 miles off the coast of
Crimea. 

1120
01:04:52,080 --> 01:04:54,440
And it was a big deal. 
Russia fired warning shots. 

1121
01:04:54,800 --> 01:04:58,000
There is US surveillance planes 
kind of hovering above. 

1122
01:04:58,760 --> 01:05:02,800
You know this was all meant to 
provoke, as the title of Scott's

1123
01:05:02,800 --> 01:05:06,600
book implies. 
What was the INF? 

1124
01:05:06,840 --> 01:05:11,040
Treaty The INF Treaty was. 
A really important treaty that 

1125
01:05:11,040 --> 01:05:14,720
got rid of intermediate range 
ballistic missiles that the US 

1126
01:05:14,720 --> 01:05:18,320
and the Soviet Union both had 
deployed in Western and Eastern 

1127
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:19,720
Europe. 
And these were nuclear tipped 

1128
01:05:19,720 --> 01:05:23,640
missiles that, you know, could 
reach Moscow and in minutes. 

1129
01:05:23,800 --> 01:05:27,480
And the INF Treaty was signed in
87 and it got rid of these 

1130
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:29,160
missiles. 
It totally banned the 

1131
01:05:29,160 --> 01:05:35,520
development of these short and 
intermediate range missiles and 

1132
01:05:35,520 --> 01:05:37,760
the Trump administration pulled 
out of this in 2019. 

1133
01:05:37,760 --> 01:05:40,240
And this is one of those 
examples of Trump being a Russia

1134
01:05:40,240 --> 01:05:42,640
hawk. 
They claimed Russia was 

1135
01:05:42,640 --> 01:05:44,320
violating the treaty with one of
its missiles. 

1136
01:05:44,320 --> 01:05:47,160
And as far as I understand it, 
there were some real genuine 

1137
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:49,440
concerns there with this this 
Russian missile. 

1138
01:05:49,720 --> 01:05:53,040
But Russia also had a a 
legitimate grievance with these 

1139
01:05:53,040 --> 01:05:56,840
anti ballistic missile systems 
that the US was installing in 

1140
01:05:56,840 --> 01:06:00,120
Poland and Romania because they 
could fit Tomahawk missiles, 

1141
01:06:00,120 --> 01:06:02,360
which are have a range of 1000 
miles. 

1142
01:06:02,480 --> 01:06:05,240
So any land based version of the
Tomahawk would be banned under 

1143
01:06:05,240 --> 01:06:07,600
the treaty. 
But instead of negotiating 

1144
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:10,400
anything, Trump pulled out of it
essentially because they want to

1145
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:13,720
deploy these missiles to Asia to
encircle China. 

1146
01:06:14,560 --> 01:06:15,640
And we're seeing that happen 
now. 

1147
01:06:15,640 --> 01:06:19,160
They sent this new system to the
Philippines, but the Biden 

1148
01:06:19,160 --> 01:06:20,920
administration recently 
announced that they're going to 

1149
01:06:20,920 --> 01:06:23,640
send these intermediate range 
missiles to Germany to station 

1150
01:06:23,640 --> 01:06:27,840
them in Germany in 2026. 
And they announced that during 

1151
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:32,760
the recent NATO, NATO summit. 
And that was the thing from 

1152
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:35,400
reading all the Russian 
statements that the Russians 

1153
01:06:35,400 --> 01:06:38,000
were the most angry about was 
the this announcement of these 

1154
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:42,520
missiles being sent over there. 
So the INF treaty that that's a 

1155
01:06:42,520 --> 01:06:46,280
big deal that Trump got got rid 
of that because now this could 

1156
01:06:46,280 --> 01:06:47,960
lead to just another missile 
build up. 

1157
01:06:48,280 --> 01:06:52,680
And it's, you know, when the US 
and Russia are on this path and 

1158
01:06:52,680 --> 01:06:55,160
there's barely anybody's 
talking, it's just it's not a 

1159
01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:57,720
good thing. 
What was the? 

1160
01:06:57,800 --> 01:07:01,320
Open Skies Treaty. 
So the Open Skies Treaty. 

1161
01:07:01,320 --> 01:07:04,960
Was another Cold War era treaty 
that allowed unarmed 

1162
01:07:04,960 --> 01:07:08,080
surveillance flights over each 
other's territory. 

1163
01:07:09,120 --> 01:07:12,120
And these days it's not really 
necessary because you have 

1164
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:16,120
satellite images, you know, 
satellites can pick up anything 

1165
01:07:16,120 --> 01:07:18,840
that really a plane, 
surveillance plane can now. 

1166
01:07:19,720 --> 01:07:22,920
But again, it was, you know, a 
trust building thing. 

1167
01:07:23,120 --> 01:07:25,680
And another one point I wanted 
to make with the INF that I 

1168
01:07:25,680 --> 01:07:30,160
forgot is that Russia offered 
over and over again for a kind 

1169
01:07:30,160 --> 01:07:33,480
of a unilateral deal with the US
for just a moratorium on the 

1170
01:07:33,480 --> 01:07:36,680
deployment of INF missiles in 
Europe because they both 

1171
01:07:36,680 --> 01:07:38,360
actually wanted to deploy them 
in Asia. 

1172
01:07:39,320 --> 01:07:44,000
But Open Skies was similar. 
Trump pulled out of it and 

1173
01:07:44,880 --> 01:07:48,720
Russia offered to renew it with 
Biden and Biden. 

1174
01:07:48,720 --> 01:07:52,080
When Trump pulled out of it, 
Biden really criticized Trump, 

1175
01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:54,080
saying it was reckless. 
But then when the Biden 

1176
01:07:54,080 --> 01:07:56,320
administration came in, they 
said, hey, Russia said, hey, 

1177
01:07:56,320 --> 01:07:59,200
let's renew this treaty. 
It it didn't apply just to the 

1178
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:03,800
US and Russia, all the NATO 
countries, you know, and other 

1179
01:08:03,800 --> 01:08:07,480
Russian allies. 
But the the Biden team said no. 

1180
01:08:08,280 --> 01:08:11,120
So it was just another, you 
know, example of this just 

1181
01:08:11,200 --> 01:08:15,440
crumbling arms control treaties 
you. 

1182
01:08:15,560 --> 01:08:18,319
Mentioned that Trump. 
Actually gave missiles to 

1183
01:08:18,319 --> 01:08:21,800
Ukraine where he said Obama only
sent them pillows and blankets. 

1184
01:08:22,040 --> 01:08:25,120
Anything else on the Trump 
administration before we move to

1185
01:08:25,120 --> 01:08:28,040
Biden? 
Yeah, I mean the Javelins. 

1186
01:08:28,720 --> 01:08:31,600
That was a big escalation. 
Again, like Obama, even though 

1187
01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:34,800
he backed this coup against 
Ukraine and, and they supported 

1188
01:08:34,800 --> 01:08:37,800
and they set up all this Intel 
and eastern Ukraine and they 

1189
01:08:37,800 --> 01:08:40,640
supported the war and encouraged
them to to fight it. 

1190
01:08:41,600 --> 01:08:45,080
He wouldn't, you know, go take 
this step of actually sending 

1191
01:08:45,080 --> 01:08:47,680
them what's become known as 
lethal aid is what they call it 

1192
01:08:47,680 --> 01:08:48,880
because they gave a military 
aid. 

1193
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:52,960
They gave him some vehicles and 
other stuff, but they wouldn't 

1194
01:08:52,960 --> 01:08:57,040
send the missiles. 
So Trump came in and he sent the

1195
01:08:57,040 --> 01:08:58,920
missiles. 
He signed off on the first one 

1196
01:08:58,920 --> 01:09:02,840
in at the end of 2017. 
And it went over there in 2018, 

1197
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:05,040
the first shipment. 
So that was a big escalation. 

1198
01:09:05,040 --> 01:09:09,000
And he was encouraged by his, 
you know, hawkish allies like 

1199
01:09:09,000 --> 01:09:11,920
Lindsey Graham. 
There's a famous video of 

1200
01:09:11,920 --> 01:09:14,560
Lindsey Graham and John McCain 
talking to Ukrainian soldiers in

1201
01:09:14,560 --> 01:09:18,960
2016, in December, right before 
the new year, saying 2017 is 

1202
01:09:18,960 --> 01:09:21,560
going to be the year of offense.
We're going to go back to 

1203
01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:24,160
Washington, and this is right 
before Trump's inaugurated. 

1204
01:09:24,160 --> 01:09:27,000
And we're going to tell them why
you need these weapons. 

1205
01:09:27,000 --> 01:09:29,120
We're going to get you what you 
need. 

1206
01:09:29,120 --> 01:09:32,160
And that's who Trump listened to
when he took that step. 

1207
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:34,720
We're going to make the case 
against. 

1208
01:09:34,720 --> 01:09:36,640
Russia. 
That's what he said when he's 

1209
01:09:36,640 --> 01:09:39,000
going to go back to Washington. 
Sickening. 

1210
01:09:39,560 --> 01:09:43,800
So in the Joe Biden chapter, I 
want to give you as much leeway 

1211
01:09:43,800 --> 01:09:46,319
on this one just because there's
so much to tackle. 

1212
01:09:46,560 --> 01:09:50,439
Tucker Carlson's thesis is 
roughly, Russia said Ukraine 

1213
01:09:50,439 --> 01:09:54,440
into NATO is a red line. 
Kamala Harris spoke at a NATO 

1214
01:09:54,440 --> 01:09:56,600
summit, saying Ukraine will join
NATO. 

1215
01:09:56,840 --> 01:09:59,240
Putin finally invades days 
after. 

1216
01:09:59,520 --> 01:10:02,840
Considering this had been a 
civil war going on for eight 

1217
01:10:02,840 --> 01:10:07,040
years or so at the time, do you 
agree with this thesis that it 

1218
01:10:07,040 --> 01:10:10,800
was as a causal result of NATO 
expansion and because of what 

1219
01:10:10,800 --> 01:10:12,400
Kamala Harris said at the NATO 
summit? 

1220
01:10:13,200 --> 01:10:16,720
Yeah, I mean, I agree. 
That it was NATO expansion. 

1221
01:10:16,720 --> 01:10:19,120
It was very clear that that's 
what this was about. 

1222
01:10:20,400 --> 01:10:23,920
And Kamala Harris's comments 
could have been the thing that 

1223
01:10:23,920 --> 01:10:26,280
finally made him go ahead with 
it. 

1224
01:10:26,280 --> 01:10:28,520
But there were other things 
happening at the time. 

1225
01:10:28,840 --> 01:10:32,960
Again, in the Donbass. 
The war was really ramping up. 

1226
01:10:32,960 --> 01:10:34,680
The attacks were really ramping 
up. 

1227
01:10:35,360 --> 01:10:40,000
And there was, you know, there 
was negotiations for months 

1228
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,480
between the US and Russia before
the actual invasion. 

1229
01:10:43,040 --> 01:10:47,080
And the, and Russia gave them a 
list of security guarantees. 

1230
01:10:47,800 --> 01:10:50,560
And the big one was NATO. 
They wanted to guarantee that 

1231
01:10:50,560 --> 01:10:54,920
Ukraine would not join NATO. 
And Biden even said publicly in 

1232
01:10:54,920 --> 01:10:57,640
2021, like, oh, you know, we'll,
we'll be able to work that out. 

1233
01:10:57,640 --> 01:11:00,240
Ukraine's not joining NATO 
anytime soon, saying they're too

1234
01:11:00,240 --> 01:11:04,040
corrupt, which is funny to hear 
Biden say that with his history 

1235
01:11:04,040 --> 01:11:08,720
in the country, you know, and 
also, you know, he says that 

1236
01:11:08,720 --> 01:11:10,640
they're too corrupt to join 
NATO, but they're not too 

1237
01:11:10,640 --> 01:11:13,800
corrupt to send them billions 
and billions, 10s of billions of

1238
01:11:13,800 --> 01:11:17,760
dollars in weapons and direct 
financial aid. 

1239
01:11:18,160 --> 01:11:22,080
But anyway, so they were 
negotiating and, and the US sent

1240
01:11:22,080 --> 01:11:25,120
back another long detail thing. 
And the only thing that they 

1241
01:11:25,120 --> 01:11:28,640
were really willing to negotiate
was missiles in Europe. 

1242
01:11:29,520 --> 01:11:33,440
But they did not address this 
issue of NATO expansion. 

1243
01:11:33,440 --> 01:11:35,280
They just wrote it off. 
They blew it off. 

1244
01:11:36,080 --> 01:11:38,120
And there was a State Department
official, I meant to double 

1245
01:11:38,120 --> 01:11:41,600
check his name before we did 
this, but he did an interview 

1246
01:11:41,640 --> 01:11:45,320
with the War on the Rocks and he
was asked. 

1247
01:11:45,320 --> 01:11:48,040
Did you guys you know? 
Negotiate, take this seriously, 

1248
01:11:48,040 --> 01:11:51,680
this this issue of NATO, of 
giving Russia a guarantee. 

1249
01:11:51,680 --> 01:11:53,880
And he said no, basically, Nope,
we can. 

1250
01:11:53,960 --> 01:11:55,840
We didn't even engage with that 
at all. 

1251
01:11:56,240 --> 01:11:57,440
And again, that was the main 
thing. 

1252
01:11:57,440 --> 01:12:01,520
And now we saw there were 
negotiations. 

1253
01:12:01,520 --> 01:12:03,600
And really what I think should 
be the biggest scandal of the 

1254
01:12:03,600 --> 01:12:07,120
Biden administration is 
discouraging, you know, 

1255
01:12:07,120 --> 01:12:09,960
sabotaging the peace talks 
between Russia and Ukraine in 

1256
01:12:09,960 --> 01:12:12,080
the beginning of the war because
even Zelensky was saying that 

1257
01:12:12,080 --> 01:12:15,360
they don't need NATO. 
And Ukrainian officials have 

1258
01:12:15,360 --> 01:12:18,720
said since that Russia's main 
demand in those negotiations was

1259
01:12:18,720 --> 01:12:21,240
neutrality. 
All the other stuff was direct, 

1260
01:12:21,240 --> 01:12:25,920
you know, about de nazification.
That was all kind of minor 

1261
01:12:25,920 --> 01:12:27,760
compared to neutrality was what 
they wanted. 

1262
01:12:27,760 --> 01:12:29,680
They were willing to pull out of
all the territory that they 

1263
01:12:29,680 --> 01:12:33,880
captured at that point. 
But, you know, the US just 

1264
01:12:33,880 --> 01:12:36,320
wouldn't. 
Biden wouldn't give them 

1265
01:12:36,320 --> 01:12:39,240
anything on on that, even 
though, you know, he made it 

1266
01:12:39,240 --> 01:12:41,640
clear that he could have, you 
know, in his kind of off the 

1267
01:12:41,640 --> 01:12:45,360
cuff comments to the media. 
You. 

1268
01:12:45,360 --> 01:12:49,120
Had a great post. 
On X, about how, you know, if 

1269
01:12:49,120 --> 01:12:53,200
there's a nuclear exchange and 
millions of people die, at least

1270
01:12:53,200 --> 01:12:55,920
we will have fought the fight of
who gets to rule. 

1271
01:12:55,920 --> 01:12:58,160
Donniston, Luhansk, It was 
something like that. 

1272
01:12:58,160 --> 01:13:01,840
But it was so brilliant that 
it's like, do you realize what? 

1273
01:13:01,840 --> 01:13:07,280
This is over, actually. 
So when it comes to what Putin's

1274
01:13:07,280 --> 01:13:11,920
public justification was for 
invading, on page 516 to 519, 

1275
01:13:11,920 --> 01:13:14,920
Scott goes over this. 
What is this war really over 

1276
01:13:16,560 --> 01:13:17,040
again? 
It's. 

1277
01:13:17,040 --> 01:13:21,680
It's over. 
NATO's presence in Ukraine, it's

1278
01:13:21,680 --> 01:13:27,760
over bringing this alliance to 
Russia's border and wanting to, 

1279
01:13:27,920 --> 01:13:31,760
you know, he mentions in the, 
the, the what Scott covers of 

1280
01:13:31,760 --> 01:13:35,200
Putin's justifications of, you 
know, talking about all of the, 

1281
01:13:35,240 --> 01:13:37,640
the war games and the, the 
troops being there. 

1282
01:13:37,640 --> 01:13:42,640
And it's, you know, it's about 
the US not letting Russia have 

1283
01:13:42,640 --> 01:13:48,680
this small sphere of influence 
in Eastern Europe, in Western 

1284
01:13:48,920 --> 01:13:53,160
Russia. 
And that's, you know, as Scott 

1285
01:13:53,160 --> 01:13:54,840
makes this case. 
I mean, that's what this is 

1286
01:13:54,840 --> 01:13:58,600
about about. 
And all the people, Ukrainians 

1287
01:13:59,240 --> 01:14:01,920
and you know, have their own 
reasons to fight, I'm sure. 

1288
01:14:02,280 --> 01:14:05,640
But they got caught in between 
two superpowers and and they've 

1289
01:14:05,760 --> 01:14:12,960
paid the price, unfortunately. 
As far as deciding who rules 

1290
01:14:12,960 --> 01:14:17,360
over this Donbass region in 
eastern Ukraine, isn't that also

1291
01:14:17,440 --> 01:14:20,040
relevant? 
Whether those people answer to 

1292
01:14:20,040 --> 01:14:24,320
Kiev or they answer to Moscow, 
isn't that a significant factor 

1293
01:14:24,320 --> 01:14:28,000
in deciding which territory is 
going to answer to which regime?

1294
01:14:29,200 --> 01:14:30,440
Yeah, well, I mean that is. 
What? 

1295
01:14:30,440 --> 01:14:33,960
What the actual fighting is 
about now, it is that it's about

1296
01:14:33,960 --> 01:14:37,520
these territories and also 
Kherson and Zaparosia, which 

1297
01:14:37,520 --> 01:14:40,840
Russia controls some of them, 
and Putin saying, you know, for 

1298
01:14:41,080 --> 01:14:44,960
him to make peace, Ukraine has 
to withdraw from the territory 

1299
01:14:44,960 --> 01:14:47,560
that it controls in those 
regions and those oblasts. 

1300
01:14:48,800 --> 01:14:50,560
And that is what is going to 
happen. 

1301
01:14:50,560 --> 01:14:52,640
You know, they're going to 
negotiate some kind of deal 

1302
01:14:52,760 --> 01:14:57,920
eventually over who rules those 
territories, who who they answer

1303
01:14:57,920 --> 01:15:01,560
to Moscow or Kiev. 
And right now, Moscow has the 

1304
01:15:01,560 --> 01:15:04,080
upper hand, has time on its 
side. 

1305
01:15:05,240 --> 01:15:07,240
So I don't think they're going 
to be quick to, you know, if 

1306
01:15:07,240 --> 01:15:10,840
Trump comes in and and like he 
promises, works to end the war, 

1307
01:15:12,240 --> 01:15:14,040
Russia is not just. 
Going to accept any old. 

1308
01:15:14,160 --> 01:15:17,120
Deal, you know, I, I, I think 
they have the upper hand here 

1309
01:15:17,120 --> 01:15:19,680
and I think it probably it's 
going to end with Russia 

1310
01:15:19,680 --> 01:15:22,920
controlling those territories. 
Maybe not the whole thing, not 

1311
01:15:22,920 --> 01:15:27,640
the whole oblast, but whatever 
they control now, Dave Dekamp 

1312
01:15:27,640 --> 01:15:28,600
is. 
The news. 

1313
01:15:28,600 --> 01:15:33,120
Editor@antiwar.com. 
He's also the host of Anti War 

1314
01:15:33,120 --> 01:15:37,080
News with Dave Dekamp on X. 
Today's book is Provoked, How 

1315
01:15:37,080 --> 01:15:39,880
Washington started the new Cold 
War with Russia and the 

1316
01:15:39,880 --> 01:15:42,640
Catastrophe in Ukraine by Scott 
Horton. 

1317
01:15:43,280 --> 01:15:45,360
Dave Dekamp, thank you so much 
for your time, brother. 

1318
01:15:45,960 --> 01:15:46,400
Thanks, Keith.
