1 00:00:00,460 --> 00:00:02,710 Welcome to Keith knight. Don't tread on anyone, any 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:06,850 libertarian institute. Today I am joined by Joe Salas 3 00:00:06,900 --> 00:00:08,840 Mullins. He is an independent researcher 4 00:00:08,850 --> 00:00:12,760 and journalist who's worked can be found at the Ludwig von Mises 5 00:00:12,900 --> 00:00:16,420 Institute, the Libertarian Institute, the Eurasian Review, 6 00:00:16,430 --> 00:00:21,270 Journal of American Revolution, antiwar.com and the Journal of 7 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,350 Libertarian Studies. Mr Mullen, thank you so much for 8 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:26,840 your time. Thanks so much for having me, 9 00:00:26,850 --> 00:00:29,170 Keith. It's a pleasure to be here one 10 00:00:29,180 --> 00:00:32,450 of the big military. Buildups in the world and one of 11 00:00:32,460 --> 00:00:37,720 the huge provocations going on is a potential dispute between 12 00:00:37,730 --> 00:00:40,750 China and Taiwan. I wanted to get you on to talk 13 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,680 about this because you wrote such an excellent article 14 00:00:44,210 --> 00:00:47,260 conveying the importance of this issue. 15 00:00:47,310 --> 00:00:50,760 I want to start with when was the last time China invaded a 16 00:00:50,770 --> 00:00:54,790 sovereign nation? Well, that that depends on who 17 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:57,990 you ask, the Indians would say quite recently. 18 00:00:58,590 --> 00:01:02,220 For example so I I don't think it's it's a strictly black and 19 00:01:02,230 --> 00:01:05,530 white question. They have fought they invaded 20 00:01:05,540 --> 00:01:10,270 Vietnam for example back in 78 as part of kind of an inter 21 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,800 party struggle there is kind of complicated but anyway so so 22 00:01:13,810 --> 00:01:16,760 they have they have fought wars within living memory but. 23 00:01:17,700 --> 00:01:22,080 Apart from the aggressive moves, certainly from the Indian 24 00:01:22,090 --> 00:01:24,550 perspective, I'll make clear what I'm talking about here. 25 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,710 In case people aren't familiar, there have been some border 26 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,150 clashes over the last couple of years between Indian and Chinese 27 00:01:30,260 --> 00:01:32,390 service people. And a couple of years ago it 28 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,160 actually turned into a bloody melee. 29 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,390 Like hundreds of guys got killed getting beaten to death with 30 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,340 like sticks with nails and rocks and stuff. 31 00:01:41,350 --> 00:01:42,710 I mean, it's just horrifying stuff. 32 00:01:42,780 --> 00:01:46,570 And it really marked a kind of a worsening of relations there 33 00:01:46,580 --> 00:01:51,200 between between the two. Countries but yeah so I don't 34 00:01:51,210 --> 00:01:54,180 know it's complicated the they are they are aggressive they 35 00:01:54,190 --> 00:01:56,940 they certainly assert their prerogatives within their their 36 00:01:56,990 --> 00:02:00,760 what they see as their their sphere so you know they 37 00:02:00,770 --> 00:02:04,380 obviously you know from the Philippines perspective violated 38 00:02:04,390 --> 00:02:08,680 their territorial waters seized you know the Scarborough Shoals 39 00:02:08,770 --> 00:02:10,500 you know back about 10 years ago. 40 00:02:10,509 --> 00:02:13,940 So it depends on who you ask and and what counts so. 41 00:02:15,190 --> 00:02:19,400 If China invades Taiwan, America has an obligation to protect the 42 00:02:19,410 --> 00:02:22,220 victim from the aggressor. How do you respond to that 43 00:02:22,230 --> 00:02:26,050 logic? I I don't know what to what to 44 00:02:26,060 --> 00:02:28,950 say to an assertion like that. I I don't know why there's an 45 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,070 assumption of moral responsibility on on us to do 46 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:33,940 that if you're referring to sort of the. 47 00:02:34,620 --> 00:02:38,310 The legal commitments that we've taken on, I would say that it 48 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,910 doesn't obligate us to militarily intervene. 49 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,840 What was agreed upon on paper back in 78 was that the United 50 00:02:45,850 --> 00:02:48,650 States would be able to supply Taiwan with the means of its own 51 00:02:48,660 --> 00:02:50,890 self-defense. Umm. 52 00:02:51,710 --> 00:02:56,480 So, so I I would, I would not engage on on those terms that we 53 00:02:56,490 --> 00:02:58,750 apriori have an obligation to do that. 54 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:00,520 Yes or no. I would say there are certain 55 00:03:00,530 --> 00:03:03,020 legal obligations that we've undertaken and which I think 56 00:03:03,090 --> 00:03:06,940 should be put under a closer microscope given how how as you 57 00:03:06,950 --> 00:03:08,940 said there's been an intense military build up there. 58 00:03:08,990 --> 00:03:11,600 I think we need to ask the question again now this is not 59 00:03:11,610 --> 00:03:16,600 1997, this is not 1957. If Beijing were to try to 60 00:03:16,610 --> 00:03:20,130 blockade Taiwan. Resupplying them would 61 00:03:20,140 --> 00:03:23,050 necessitate sending. Ships. 62 00:03:23,860 --> 00:03:26,260 To penetrate the blockade in like a reverse Cuban missile 63 00:03:26,270 --> 00:03:29,450 crisis type situation, is this something that we would like to 64 00:03:29,460 --> 00:03:31,070 do? I think that needs to be an 65 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:34,380 actual national debate instead of simply being thrown together 66 00:03:34,390 --> 00:03:36,390 in a package. You know, like the the New 67 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,300 Taiwan Relations Act, the Taiwan Defense Act, which is basically 68 00:03:39,310 --> 00:03:42,570 just giving whoever's in the White House a blank check. 69 00:03:43,340 --> 00:03:45,610 I mean, this is World War One type stuff here. 70 00:03:45,620 --> 00:03:48,150 Just writing a blank check and and pushing the chips forward. 71 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,860 When really the status quo can endure. 72 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:54,490 The status quo can endure if both, if all three sides are 73 00:03:54,500 --> 00:04:00,210 willing to. Issue escalatory actions, which 74 00:04:00,220 --> 00:04:04,130 so far no one's really been willing to do so. 75 00:04:05,430 --> 00:04:09,440 So Taiwan is one of the major producers in the world of 76 00:04:09,510 --> 00:04:12,280 microchips, which the world economy relies on. 77 00:04:12,350 --> 00:04:15,910 We must protect the world by protecting Taiwan. 78 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,310 Therefore, we should go in and defend whether we previously 79 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,860 have made obligations. We now need to commit to 80 00:04:22,870 --> 00:04:26,520 defending them to disincentivize China from invading and 81 00:04:26,530 --> 00:04:31,520 destroying the world's economy. Well, first I would say if. 82 00:04:31,590 --> 00:04:34,200 If. China tried to invade Taiwan. 83 00:04:34,210 --> 00:04:36,400 If that were to happen, I would say the world economy would 84 00:04:36,410 --> 00:04:39,310 already be. Pretty pretty irreparably 85 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:43,070 damaged in in the near to medium term, microchips 86 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,080 notwithstanding. It would be that that 87 00:04:46,090 --> 00:04:48,320 disruptive, this would not be Russia. 88 00:04:48,370 --> 00:04:51,700 Russia is a big, you know, raw materials provider. 89 00:04:51,790 --> 00:04:53,400 That's true. But there are a lot of 90 00:04:53,410 --> 00:04:56,580 alternative sources of raw materials, the, the, the value, 91 00:04:56,590 --> 00:04:59,700 the the supply chains, the production lines that China is 92 00:04:59,710 --> 00:05:02,480 involved into to see a serious rupture in that. 93 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:06,080 That would mean like a stop of of global trade. 94 00:05:06,170 --> 00:05:09,820 I mean it's, it's, it would be the two largest economies by 95 00:05:09,830 --> 00:05:12,900 far, not on speaking terms, it's just so. 96 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,790 Yeah. The microchips, sure. 97 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:19,610 Yes, Taiwan is a big source for those. 98 00:05:19,620 --> 00:05:22,310 There are other countries that also make those, including the 99 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,150 United States. OK. 100 00:05:24,190 --> 00:05:28,090 So microchips alone, I I think that can be a consideration if 101 00:05:28,100 --> 00:05:29,460 you want it to be a consideration. 102 00:05:29,510 --> 00:05:31,500 But I also think when you realistically look at the 103 00:05:31,510 --> 00:05:34,030 numbers that we're talking about here like there are choices, 104 00:05:34,110 --> 00:05:39,370 South Korea. The UK, the United States, the 105 00:05:39,380 --> 00:05:41,750 Dutch, like they they all have high grade semiconductor 106 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,680 manufacturing capabilities and they're they're spending many 107 00:05:44,690 --> 00:05:46,210 billions of dollars to build more. 108 00:05:46,300 --> 00:05:49,640 Why are we spending this money to build more if if the real? 109 00:05:50,530 --> 00:05:52,950 Really if we if we really need to defend Taiwan, like why are 110 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:55,040 we building all these alternative sources of of 111 00:05:55,050 --> 00:05:58,270 microchip which which already publications that are very 112 00:05:58,280 --> 00:06:00,210 mainstream like The Economist and Wall Street Journal are 113 00:06:00,220 --> 00:06:04,350 speculating is going to lead to a a semiconductor glut similar 114 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:09,360 to like the the fiber the fiber optic cable glut that bankrupted 115 00:06:09,370 --> 00:06:13,640 firms back in the late 90s early 2000s because you have the 116 00:06:13,650 --> 00:06:16,380 government distorting the market so much with all of its dollars. 117 00:06:16,450 --> 00:06:17,820 So but we'll see that's speculative. 118 00:06:19,580 --> 00:06:22,570 China is the fastest growing economy in the world. 119 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,900 They must face resistance or they will take over. 120 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:29,470 They have been the fastest growing economy. 121 00:06:30,220 --> 00:06:33,460 Over the last 20 years. That's true. 122 00:06:34,310 --> 00:06:37,920 Going back 30 years, even again true, a lot of that was catchup 123 00:06:37,930 --> 00:06:39,910 growth. This was early industrialization 124 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:41,340 growth. We were talking about going from 125 00:06:41,350 --> 00:06:45,000 like peasant agriculture to like large, the biggest scale 126 00:06:45,010 --> 00:06:47,480 industrialization you've ever seen that the world has ever 127 00:06:47,490 --> 00:06:49,550 seen. So there was always going to be 128 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:51,810 huge productivity gains from that. 129 00:06:52,090 --> 00:06:55,460 Also you had one off productivity gains like the No 130 00:06:55,470 --> 00:06:59,200 child policy, which basically gave you, you know, a half a 131 00:06:59,210 --> 00:07:03,440 million or 500 million people who had like basically no kids 132 00:07:03,450 --> 00:07:05,880 to look after and to just. Worked their butts off. 133 00:07:06,210 --> 00:07:08,520 So you had all sorts of favorable things working in 134 00:07:08,530 --> 00:07:11,940 their advantage during those, I would say 25 years starting 135 00:07:11,950 --> 00:07:13,740 around 2012. When you actually look at the 136 00:07:13,750 --> 00:07:16,620 statistics, you find that since that time, which is actually 137 00:07:16,630 --> 00:07:20,730 since she took power, total photo, total factor productivity 138 00:07:20,740 --> 00:07:25,680 has actually declined and so has GDP growth each year to the 139 00:07:25,690 --> 00:07:27,410 point that just before COVID hit. 140 00:07:28,050 --> 00:07:32,410 It was growing at 6%. 6% is like, yeah, that's very good. 141 00:07:32,420 --> 00:07:34,650 You know, in the United States we're like, wow, 3% would be 142 00:07:34,660 --> 00:07:36,930 great. But seriously for a developed 143 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,180 for a developing economy, 6% is nothing to. 144 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:44,950 To like, whoa, Oh my gosh, like Saudi Arabia is gonna be 10% 145 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,120 this year, you know? So I think keeping it in 146 00:07:47,130 --> 00:07:49,830 perspective like China's economy is naturally slowing. 147 00:07:50,530 --> 00:07:52,480 I mean, there's a lot. I mean there's a lot of good 148 00:07:52,490 --> 00:07:54,520 literature that suggests it's already peaked. 149 00:07:54,750 --> 00:07:59,060 They're like we are barring some incredible new unforeseen 150 00:07:59,070 --> 00:08:02,540 breakthrough that China alone makes and that transforms its 151 00:08:02,550 --> 00:08:05,230 productivity power. Yeah, the community, I think 152 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,070 there's a very strong chance that they'll get stuck in the 153 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:10,840 middle income trap and then you have their population collapse 154 00:08:10,850 --> 00:08:13,460 coming. So no, I I don't think any 155 00:08:13,470 --> 00:08:14,860 reason to worry. Actually the Wall Street 156 00:08:14,870 --> 00:08:18,380 Journal, which has been super alarmist about China for years, 157 00:08:18,390 --> 00:08:22,940 actually did a front page story. Uh, two weeks ago now, where 158 00:08:22,950 --> 00:08:26,680 they cited this new study saying that actually the more numbers 159 00:08:26,690 --> 00:08:30,010 we get, we actually don't think China's economy is ever going to 160 00:08:30,020 --> 00:08:32,850 surpass the United States, not even for a brief interval. 161 00:08:34,130 --> 00:08:37,580 Things have changed that much over the last 30 years, you 162 00:08:37,590 --> 00:08:41,169 know, so. I I don't worry about that. 163 00:08:41,230 --> 00:08:43,559 I really don't. You're asking me essentially, do 164 00:08:43,570 --> 00:08:46,860 I wanna bet on an essentially free market system or do I wanna 165 00:08:46,870 --> 00:08:50,380 bet on a centralized state controlled system? 166 00:08:50,430 --> 00:08:51,860 I'm always going to bet on the former. 167 00:08:51,870 --> 00:08:54,420 We've seen this experiment run several Times Now. 168 00:08:54,510 --> 00:08:57,240 There's really, in my mind, no reason to doubt at this point. 169 00:08:58,430 --> 00:09:03,120 And the major examples would be north or South Korea E 1st West 170 00:09:03,130 --> 00:09:04,960 Germany. What are some other empirical 171 00:09:04,970 --> 00:09:09,380 examples that tell us that if we embrace free markets, we will be 172 00:09:09,450 --> 00:09:11,080 the wealthiest country on the planet? 173 00:09:11,350 --> 00:09:13,120 Oh, I would. I would absolutely point to the 174 00:09:13,130 --> 00:09:15,190 Cold War, the Cold War block system too. 175 00:09:16,470 --> 00:09:20,430 Just looking at how much richer the Western bloc was than the 176 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,340 Eastern bloc, that's one of the things that really freaked out 177 00:09:23,350 --> 00:09:26,740 early China Hawks was it looked like China was actually going to 178 00:09:26,750 --> 00:09:30,200 be able to compete long term over the 21st century with the 179 00:09:30,210 --> 00:09:32,770 United States and maybe even surpass it, which is something 180 00:09:32,780 --> 00:09:35,220 that the Soviet Union was never even close to doing. 181 00:09:35,450 --> 00:09:38,280 They were always hopelessly overmatched economically by the 182 00:09:38,290 --> 00:09:42,000 by the late 1960s, when it became clear that there was too 183 00:09:42,010 --> 00:09:44,460 much bad investment building up, there wasn't enough creativity, 184 00:09:44,470 --> 00:09:46,360 there weren't enough incentives to work. 185 00:09:46,460 --> 00:09:49,010 I don't think it's a coincidence, frankly, that 186 00:09:49,020 --> 00:09:53,170 you've seen China's numbers reversed since 2012 because she 187 00:09:53,180 --> 00:09:57,110 was much more concerned with. Cementing his own control on 188 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:01,270 power, then risking further liberalizing reforms which had 189 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,470 led to the private sector, which contributed the overwhelming 190 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:08,250 amount of growth year on year to the Chinese GDP. 191 00:10:08,580 --> 00:10:12,150 So he's cracked down on them. He's been going in, purging 192 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:13,980 people, you know, I mean that's, that's what he's concerned 193 00:10:13,990 --> 00:10:17,530 about, his own power, not about the, you know, the Chinese 194 00:10:17,540 --> 00:10:21,030 economy, you know, liberalizing to be the true colossus that it 195 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,850 really could be. I mean, at least in the short 196 00:10:23,860 --> 00:10:26,350 term. At least one. 197 00:10:27,470 --> 00:10:29,310 Sure. Ronald Coates wrote a book 198 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:31,760 called How China became capitalist. 199 00:10:31,770 --> 00:10:36,300 His general thesis is that after Mao there was a large increase 200 00:10:36,310 --> 00:10:40,040 in the private property ethic that was respected in China. 201 00:10:40,050 --> 00:10:44,790 So if we have from one to zero, they moved drastically in the 202 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,780 direction of more private property and more free trade. 203 00:10:47,830 --> 00:10:51,100 This is what gave them a significant increase in wealth. 204 00:10:51,150 --> 00:10:52,900 Do you agree with that thesis in general? 205 00:10:53,290 --> 00:10:56,440 Oh, in general, absolutely. They made tremendous, tremendous 206 00:10:56,450 --> 00:10:58,870 reforms. Yeah, and there were some. 207 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,970 There were some fraught moments for the CCP, but they managed to 208 00:11:01,980 --> 00:11:05,500 weather them. And uh, yeah, they transform. 209 00:11:05,510 --> 00:11:08,270 They transform the society. And in many ways, yeah. 210 00:11:09,330 --> 00:11:13,720 One of the great scams is talking about things and only 211 00:11:13,770 --> 00:11:18,430 their potential upsides, where they basically have no downsides 212 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,620 at all. We should defend Ukraine this 213 00:11:21,630 --> 00:11:23,430 way. Russia won't be in Ukraine 214 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,200 anymore. We should defend Taiwan. 215 00:11:25,310 --> 00:11:28,220 This way there will be peace they never mention. 216 00:11:28,310 --> 00:11:31,360 Well, let's look at the potential other side of this 217 00:11:31,370 --> 00:11:33,580 equation. So with that in mind, what are 218 00:11:33,590 --> 00:11:38,000 the potential downsides, costs, or unintended consequences to 219 00:11:38,050 --> 00:11:44,030 defending places like Taiwan? Well, I I think, I think first 220 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,070 we just need to bring these things out into the open and to 221 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:50,210 rehash how we got here in in a in a in a way that I don't think 222 00:11:50,220 --> 00:11:52,990 public discourse today can handle quite honestly. 223 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,590 It would really be something, though, to hear a couple of 224 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,470 presidential candidates have a back and forth about whether or 225 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:03,090 not this Cold War obligation. You know needs to be reexamined 226 00:12:03,180 --> 00:12:08,290 and to look at how our actions since our apparent our supposed 227 00:12:08,500 --> 00:12:13,650 reorientation of relations in 1978 when we recognize Beijing's 228 00:12:13,670 --> 00:12:17,210 government as legitimate. What were the commitments that 229 00:12:17,220 --> 00:12:19,140 we made? Have we been keeping those 230 00:12:19,150 --> 00:12:23,370 commitments, having an honest talk with ourselves as a country 231 00:12:23,420 --> 00:12:27,410 because it is a serious thing. The Taiwanese really don't seem 232 00:12:27,420 --> 00:12:30,740 to want to be unified with the mainland and. 233 00:12:30,870 --> 00:12:33,520 I can respect their wishes not to be looking at Hong Kong 234 00:12:33,530 --> 00:12:37,130 especially. At the same time, the deal was 235 00:12:37,340 --> 00:12:40,390 that everyone was going to work towards peaceful reunification. 236 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,770 Now, so far, Beijing hasn't actually done anything. 237 00:12:45,300 --> 00:12:48,440 I mean, yes, they've done some some provocative things, but 238 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:51,890 they've not actually tried to even see some of the near the 239 00:12:51,900 --> 00:12:54,570 the the islands that Taiwan claims as its own that are right 240 00:12:54,580 --> 00:12:57,980 off China shore. Which realistically, it could do 241 00:12:57,990 --> 00:13:00,070 with with no difficulty at all. I mean, these are, you know, a 242 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:01,580 few miles from China. They're just rocks. 243 00:13:03,930 --> 00:13:08,040 So I really think we we need to do that because of course we 244 00:13:08,050 --> 00:13:10,880 want people to be able to as libertarians, we want people to 245 00:13:10,890 --> 00:13:14,320 be able to choose their own way, to embrace their own lives, 246 00:13:14,330 --> 00:13:16,980 their own you know, cultural identity and and things like 247 00:13:16,990 --> 00:13:20,020 that, and to as far as possible make their own decisions. 248 00:13:20,330 --> 00:13:23,860 But I don't think we can do that blind to the wider context. 249 00:13:25,230 --> 00:13:29,200 It's true that Taiwan has never officially been part of this 250 00:13:29,450 --> 00:13:33,990 instantiation of China. It was a part of the late 251 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:37,630 Chinese imperial possessions, but it was lost to Japan. 252 00:13:37,820 --> 00:13:40,250 I guess we don't need to go into the whole history, but suffice 253 00:13:40,260 --> 00:13:42,320 to say Taiwan kind of feels like. 254 00:13:43,260 --> 00:13:46,200 As time has gone on, they don't really like the agreement as it 255 00:13:46,210 --> 00:13:49,350 was made and they've changed. We have to keep in mind at the 256 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:53,270 time they were a dictatorship. They hadn't democratized yet. 257 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:55,720 And so it's just, it's a different place now. 258 00:13:55,890 --> 00:14:00,190 And I do, I do foresee trouble. I do foresee trouble because. 259 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,450 I feel like increasingly Washington is writing them a 260 00:14:05,460 --> 00:14:08,760 blank check. I feel like Joe Biden's, you 261 00:14:08,770 --> 00:14:10,720 know, quote UN quote, slip of the tongue. 262 00:14:10,870 --> 00:14:12,920 It's not a slip of the tongue. You don't say something four 263 00:14:12,930 --> 00:14:14,700 times and have it be a flip phone first. 264 00:14:14,710 --> 00:14:17,920 The very first time I was willing to say, guys, it's Joe 265 00:14:17,930 --> 00:14:19,940 Biden. Everybody's and China played 266 00:14:19,950 --> 00:14:22,850 along too, which like, because you have to keep in mind they're 267 00:14:22,860 --> 00:14:25,040 under pressure too. And this is what I mean by like 268 00:14:25,050 --> 00:14:28,500 not doing escalatory things like Nancy Pelosi's visit and the 269 00:14:28,510 --> 00:14:30,780 several visits that followed right after that is like. 270 00:14:32,110 --> 00:14:34,520 This is a complicated situation and when we look at the World 271 00:14:34,530 --> 00:14:37,690 War One literature, we find that the German imperial government 272 00:14:37,700 --> 00:14:40,200 was very motivated by public opinion, feeling that like they 273 00:14:40,210 --> 00:14:45,020 needed to go to war. In in the aftermath, the the 274 00:14:45,030 --> 00:14:47,300 Chinese social media, they were whacking down the rabbits. 275 00:14:47,310 --> 00:14:49,750 A lot of them that they were canceling were people who were 276 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:51,990 not pleased that she had not like tried to shoot down her 277 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,650 plane or something like that, that his response was not tough 278 00:14:54,660 --> 00:14:56,170 enough. So like you have to keep in mind 279 00:14:56,180 --> 00:15:00,600 that like she especially has built up this like very powerful 280 00:15:00,670 --> 00:15:04,220 revanchist nationalism like it is is a pretty powerful 281 00:15:04,230 --> 00:15:06,290 motivating force and he's he's he's. 282 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,940 He's painted very prosperous, impressive prospects of their 283 00:15:10,950 --> 00:15:12,590 future. And when I look at the 284 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,830 situation, I don't see really any of them coming true, even if 285 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,550 the United States really isn't involved in trying to contain 286 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:20,180 China. I just think China's 287 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:23,650 geostrategic and economic and demographic situation is just so 288 00:15:23,660 --> 00:15:26,410 bad that, like, this is as good as it's ever going to get. 289 00:15:26,700 --> 00:15:29,950 And so this might be our moment of maximum danger, and so we 290 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:33,110 need to behave accordingly. In a long run race, there's no 291 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:36,490 question who's going to win. If it's a question of systems 292 00:15:36,500 --> 00:15:38,420 competing, there's no question who's gonna win. 293 00:15:39,230 --> 00:15:40,940 And we don't even need to be belligerent about it. 294 00:15:40,950 --> 00:15:44,140 We just need to compete. China has so many internal 295 00:15:44,150 --> 00:15:47,030 problems. It's, you know, it's going to 296 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:48,680 collapse eventually, in my opinion. 297 00:15:49,430 --> 00:15:50,890 Independent of anything that we do. 298 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:56,890 As far as potential downsides go, could there be a nuclear 299 00:15:56,940 --> 00:15:59,950 exchange or is that just completely unrealistic? 300 00:16:00,140 --> 00:16:01,610 Ohh no. Of course there could be a 301 00:16:01,620 --> 00:16:05,630 nuclear exchange 100%. I mean we are talking about 302 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:09,390 playing a game of chicken when game theoretically you know. 303 00:16:10,050 --> 00:16:12,660 It's use them, it's use them first, right? 304 00:16:12,870 --> 00:16:16,280 And we're talking about a situation where we are now. 305 00:16:18,140 --> 00:16:19,970 It's, it's it's a little bit ambiguous. 306 00:16:19,980 --> 00:16:22,810 The the status is a little ambiguous, but like this is 307 00:16:23,020 --> 00:16:26,390 recognized as part of China. So like technically the United 308 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,510 States would be trespassing. Like according to the UN this, 309 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,270 according to the UN and according to official US 310 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:36,130 positions, we would be the ones intervening there. 311 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:39,430 So I mean I don't know that we would be able to count on the 312 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,020 rest of the world being on the United States side. 313 00:16:42,060 --> 00:16:44,750 I would certainly not rule out a nuclear exchange. 314 00:16:45,340 --> 00:16:48,010 You know, China has said that their nuclear weapons, the 315 00:16:48,020 --> 00:16:50,300 reason that they're not willing to engage in nuclear weapons. 316 00:16:50,370 --> 00:16:53,500 Talks jointly with the United States and Russia is because 317 00:16:54,060 --> 00:16:57,780 China has so few. And that's because China, their 318 00:16:57,790 --> 00:17:01,530 official policy is it's only for use if we are directly attacked. 319 00:17:02,550 --> 00:17:05,440 Like the US and Russia are not kidding anyone like that they're 320 00:17:05,450 --> 00:17:07,690 trying to gain first strike capability because they're just 321 00:17:07,700 --> 00:17:11,230 both crazy and nuts. You know, China, it really from 322 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:13,660 what their capabilities suggest. I know they're starting to build 323 00:17:13,670 --> 00:17:16,770 up now because they feel like maybe they need to because the 324 00:17:16,780 --> 00:17:19,720 US and the Russians have failed so badly in their own arms 325 00:17:19,730 --> 00:17:23,109 control talks that now we have a new arms race between the 326 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:25,980 Russians and the Americans. Now, you know, we talk about the 327 00:17:25,990 --> 00:17:28,109 military build up there. You know, the Chinese are 328 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,000 feeling dragged into that and that's going to carry over into 329 00:17:31,010 --> 00:17:34,140 potential conflict over Taiwan. I think one thing we have to 330 00:17:34,150 --> 00:17:37,430 talk about is are we willing to lose, you know, a super carrier 331 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,740 battle group over this? And attempted intervention 332 00:17:40,790 --> 00:17:43,670 because they have the missile capability now to potentially do 333 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,920 that, to make the waters surrounding Taiwan completely 334 00:17:47,050 --> 00:17:48,960 unapproachable for hundreds of miles. 335 00:17:49,370 --> 00:17:51,680 So are we willing to put 10s of thousands of American lives 336 00:17:51,690 --> 00:17:53,740 immediately on the line? That's a question. 337 00:17:54,170 --> 00:17:57,000 The nuclear question, that's also one, I don't think right 338 00:17:57,010 --> 00:17:58,980 away it would lead to like everyone breaking out nuclear 339 00:17:58,990 --> 00:18:00,160 weapons. I really don't. 340 00:18:00,790 --> 00:18:05,570 But I do think if 10,000 Americans got blown up, I think 341 00:18:05,580 --> 00:18:09,140 that there would be a. A clamor for for some kind of 342 00:18:09,150 --> 00:18:12,480 response because that is just the way of the crowd and it's 343 00:18:12,490 --> 00:18:15,210 not stop and reflect. Let's think about what might 344 00:18:15,220 --> 00:18:17,100 happen. It's just knee jerk reaction. 345 00:18:17,110 --> 00:18:20,650 I I got crushed because I think a couple of years ago I said I 346 00:18:20,660 --> 00:18:23,480 thought the American people actually have learned a lot over 347 00:18:23,490 --> 00:18:26,520 the last 20 years about the government and how they lie, try 348 00:18:26,530 --> 00:18:29,540 to lie you into wars. And I've been forced to eat my 349 00:18:29,550 --> 00:18:31,560 words a couple of times since then. 350 00:18:31,570 --> 00:18:35,760 So I'm just not going to trust the public to be a restraining 351 00:18:35,770 --> 00:18:39,810 impulse on their politicians. Who think the safest thing 352 00:18:39,860 --> 00:18:43,240 naturally is to seem strong on any national security issue? 353 00:18:44,610 --> 00:18:46,880 So that's that's the public, that's public policy dynamic 354 00:18:46,890 --> 00:18:51,020 that we as advocates and as voters can can work to get 355 00:18:51,030 --> 00:18:54,720 changed, you know, to not punish people for not being willing to 356 00:18:54,730 --> 00:18:56,740 say something stupid and hawkish. 357 00:18:57,670 --> 00:19:02,080 Pat Buchanan said that if the United States ever went to war 358 00:19:02,090 --> 00:19:05,380 with Russia or China, there would absolutely have to be a 359 00:19:05,390 --> 00:19:07,560 reenlistment of military conscription. 360 00:19:07,660 --> 00:19:13,450 Do you agree with that? Not over, not over Taiwan, no. 361 00:19:13,460 --> 00:19:16,640 I mean, they, they have this air sea battle all mapped out that 362 00:19:16,650 --> 00:19:20,920 they're going to try, so. No, I I don't think so. 363 00:19:21,790 --> 00:19:25,010 I mean, I get, I I don't think the US would engage in a land 364 00:19:25,020 --> 00:19:26,890 war in Asia. I don't, I don't know how that 365 00:19:26,900 --> 00:19:29,050 would work public. I don't think you could sell the 366 00:19:29,060 --> 00:19:31,550 public on it. I don't know how how that would 367 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,560 even work strategically. Why you would even engage like 368 00:19:34,570 --> 00:19:39,730 that. I again, I don't know why you 369 00:19:39,740 --> 00:19:42,580 would ever want to any of these countries fighting each other. 370 00:19:42,590 --> 00:19:45,010 I certainly will do everything I can to keep them from trying to 371 00:19:45,020 --> 00:19:48,720 fight each other. If it happened, I I just don't 372 00:19:48,730 --> 00:19:50,660 think. I don't know. 373 00:19:50,710 --> 00:19:53,320 We have, we we definitely have a recruitment problem right now 374 00:19:53,450 --> 00:19:55,170 that's been pretty public knowledge. 375 00:19:55,490 --> 00:20:00,180 But you also have like kind of a broader sort of antipathy 376 00:20:00,490 --> 00:20:03,520 towards something like that. Something like forced service. 377 00:20:04,350 --> 00:20:07,480 Our our society today is just not the same one as our 378 00:20:07,490 --> 00:20:11,370 depression era grandparents or great grandparents or parents. 379 00:20:11,380 --> 00:20:14,580 Whoever's listening to this I I know from spending a lot of time 380 00:20:14,590 --> 00:20:16,740 with with my grandparents who were actually depressing your 381 00:20:16,750 --> 00:20:19,740 kids and my grandpa and all his brothers who got enlisted in 382 00:20:19,750 --> 00:20:22,570 multiple. Conflicts called up, you know, 383 00:20:22,580 --> 00:20:25,690 they had a different idea of of what they were doing and how it 384 00:20:25,700 --> 00:20:29,170 all fit into the world and what you what you owed to society is 385 00:20:29,180 --> 00:20:31,390 not it's not the same society today. 386 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:33,970 And the consequences for the types of things that we're 387 00:20:33,980 --> 00:20:36,430 talking about are much bigger. You know, tactical nuclear 388 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,870 weapons used, for example. You know, we just have to keep 389 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,380 in mind these are these are different times and they're 390 00:20:42,390 --> 00:20:44,860 different militaries too. Our military is very high tech. 391 00:20:44,900 --> 00:20:49,130 It's not even clear that like a mass, you know, a mass drawing 392 00:20:49,140 --> 00:20:50,910 effort would would really be beneficial. 393 00:20:50,990 --> 00:20:53,930 Considering how our armed forces have been designed to fight so. 394 00:20:55,070 --> 00:20:58,530 What do you say to the mindset that if the United States does 395 00:20:58,540 --> 00:21:02,080 not call the shots in the world, make sure governments of of 396 00:21:02,090 --> 00:21:06,220 smaller countries are adhering to U.S. policy, well then places 397 00:21:06,230 --> 00:21:10,800 like China will fill that void. Therefore, we have to be 398 00:21:10,850 --> 00:21:14,480 somewhat belligerent towards China so we don't become a 399 00:21:14,490 --> 00:21:18,130 victims of their aggression. Well, China would never be 400 00:21:18,140 --> 00:21:20,570 directly belligerent to us. Let's be clear. 401 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,550 Maybe we have a distant client state that they might try and 402 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,170 bully. But in terms of like actually 403 00:21:25,180 --> 00:21:27,410 trying to bully the United States, they've never tried to 404 00:21:27,420 --> 00:21:29,150 do that and they wouldn't try to do that. 405 00:21:29,220 --> 00:21:32,490 They want nothing more than for the United States to just sit 406 00:21:32,500 --> 00:21:35,310 back contentedly. The the Chinese say all the 407 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,530 time, you know, there's no risk of any accidental collision in 408 00:21:38,540 --> 00:21:41,250 the Gulf of Mexico because we know that that's your space and 409 00:21:41,260 --> 00:21:44,120 we steer well clear. And it's like, you know, that's 410 00:21:44,130 --> 00:21:45,910 a sensible, that's a sensible policy to have. 411 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:47,560 They're not. Looking for antagonism. 412 00:21:47,570 --> 00:21:51,200 When you look at the map, it's pretty clear who objectively 413 00:21:51,210 --> 00:21:55,510 seems to be antagonizing whom. Just from just from an out, I 414 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,390 consider myself an outside perspective. 415 00:21:57,740 --> 00:22:02,030 I am pro peace, so pro engagement, so. 416 00:22:04,090 --> 00:22:09,680 Would China call the shots over where in Burkina Faso can you 417 00:22:09,690 --> 00:22:12,840 point to Burkina Faso on a map? I'm pretty educated guy and I 418 00:22:12,850 --> 00:22:15,260 can tell you right now I can't. I really can't. 419 00:22:15,270 --> 00:22:17,040 I know China's up to their elbows there. 420 00:22:17,050 --> 00:22:18,880 And you know what? I'm sure they have the reasons 421 00:22:18,890 --> 00:22:21,350 for doing that. And I'm also sure that it really 422 00:22:21,360 --> 00:22:25,100 doesn't affect the welfare of the of the American people or of 423 00:22:25,110 --> 00:22:28,430 our national security. We have our own friends and I 424 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,870 think, frankly, we should do a better job if we're that 425 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,450 concerned about what goes on where, we should do a better job 426 00:22:34,460 --> 00:22:38,490 building relationships in our own hemisphere because Americans 427 00:22:38,500 --> 00:22:42,350 are pretty loathed. Generally, you look at who's 428 00:22:42,360 --> 00:22:45,140 taking power in South America. They're not running on a pro 429 00:22:45,150 --> 00:22:47,230 America. We love America, you know. 430 00:22:47,300 --> 00:22:48,870 No, not that. Not even close. 431 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,710 We've messed up our relationships horribly in 432 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,790 Central and South America. And you know they they've been 433 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,550 looking at engaging with with China and and with Russia to 434 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,750 varying degrees but they're they're finding that there's a 435 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,670 lot of investment challenges down there. 436 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,010 China's investment in Brazil for example is probably already 437 00:23:05,020 --> 00:23:08,030 peaked the last time they came down there they they weren't 438 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:11,320 really offering any doubt any any investment and it's because 439 00:23:11,330 --> 00:23:14,070 the return on investment is is actually pretty low. 440 00:23:14,380 --> 00:23:17,590 There are a lot of challenges the climate actually this is an 441 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:21,700 interesting fact the roads will will melt if you make them out 442 00:23:21,710 --> 00:23:24,030 of like ordinary asphalt. You know, they'll bend, they'll 443 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:25,780 slide right away. I mean there's just, there's all 444 00:23:25,790 --> 00:23:28,520 sorts of of topographical challenges to doing things down 445 00:23:28,530 --> 00:23:32,730 there. And so in our court system, you 446 00:23:32,740 --> 00:23:35,000 know, we don't, we take that for granted, but like our legal 447 00:23:35,010 --> 00:23:37,740 system is relatively transparent and clean when it comes to like 448 00:23:37,750 --> 00:23:40,240 property rights and that's not the case in a lot of places in 449 00:23:40,250 --> 00:23:42,500 South America. So I think we could do a lot to 450 00:23:42,510 --> 00:23:45,540 build relationships there and to make us all a lot richer, a lot 451 00:23:45,550 --> 00:23:48,580 richer because countries like Brazil and Argentina, gosh, 452 00:23:48,590 --> 00:23:51,620 Argentina could really. I don't wanna say I don't want 453 00:23:51,630 --> 00:23:54,460 to sound patronizing because obviously our own economy is not 454 00:23:54,470 --> 00:23:56,520 in great shape either, but like, you know. 455 00:23:57,250 --> 00:23:59,040 Argentina looks like they could really use a hand. 456 00:23:59,050 --> 00:24:02,100 You know, they're in like their 25th year of crisis now, you 457 00:24:02,110 --> 00:24:04,560 know, kind of like leftist governments, like maybe some 458 00:24:04,570 --> 00:24:06,840 outreach there to help the Argentinian people out, build 459 00:24:06,850 --> 00:24:09,240 some goodwill there. That's an important country. 460 00:24:10,110 --> 00:24:12,960 In our hemisphere, we should be worried less about what's going 461 00:24:12,970 --> 00:24:18,340 on in places like, you know, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, you 462 00:24:18,350 --> 00:24:22,280 know, Yemen like these are. I mean, the whole conflict in 463 00:24:22,290 --> 00:24:25,360 Yemen is just outrageous and our partner is, is just criminal. 464 00:24:25,530 --> 00:24:29,260 But you know, when I look at East Asia, I see a lot of very 465 00:24:29,270 --> 00:24:33,240 powerful, very nationalistic, very industrialized countries 466 00:24:33,310 --> 00:24:36,180 all around China. And China is going to have its 467 00:24:36,190 --> 00:24:38,500 hands full dealing with countries like South Korea, 468 00:24:38,570 --> 00:24:41,320 Japan, Vietnam. I told people a couple of years 469 00:24:41,330 --> 00:24:44,270 ago Vietnam is totally gonna fly under the radar, but they're 470 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,840 just booming. Vietnam is gobbling up so much 471 00:24:46,850 --> 00:24:49,580 of that low end manufacturing that used to go to China and 472 00:24:49,590 --> 00:24:51,020 their economy is just crushing it. 473 00:24:51,030 --> 00:24:54,630 Pick something up today. You find Vietnam on a lot more 474 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,950 stuff. Yeah, it's interesting. 475 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,170 So China's Indonesia. Indonesia, man, that's, that's a 476 00:25:00,180 --> 00:25:02,180 sleeping one right there. If they can, if they can get 477 00:25:02,190 --> 00:25:04,150 their act together, the Philippines. 478 00:25:04,300 --> 00:25:06,910 So in India, of course, India is sitting right there. 479 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,160 India is going to have more people than China next year. 480 00:25:11,340 --> 00:25:13,950 1520 years ago, if you look at projections, they said it wasn't 481 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,300 gonna happen until 2030. So that's how bad China's 482 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:20,360 population system problems are, is India is already going to be 483 00:25:20,370 --> 00:25:22,070 more populous than that by next year. 484 00:25:22,460 --> 00:25:27,220 So is this the man's search for meaning that Americans can have? 485 00:25:27,230 --> 00:25:30,230 When they look at, you know, the world they say, oh gosh, we got 486 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:34,490 to go out and spread democracy by going into the country and 487 00:25:34,500 --> 00:25:37,290 installing the government. Maybe the meaning with the 488 00:25:37,300 --> 00:25:40,770 effect that we could have on the world is in the Declaration of 489 00:25:40,780 --> 00:25:43,940 Independence. Of promoting objective truth, 490 00:25:44,010 --> 00:25:47,520 having things like free trade, the state, not monopolizing 491 00:25:47,930 --> 00:25:52,150 weaponry, and making sure that volunteerism is the principle 492 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,460 instead of violence. I I still see that we can still 493 00:25:55,570 --> 00:25:58,900 impact and affect the world around us without, you know, 494 00:25:58,910 --> 00:26:02,580 Karl Rove and Anthony Blanken calling the shots everywhere. 495 00:26:03,380 --> 00:26:06,800 That's absolutely right, because they have a very specific idea 496 00:26:07,050 --> 00:26:09,140 of the US role and it's not different. 497 00:26:09,150 --> 00:26:12,340 You and I know that and it's, and it's actually a divide that 498 00:26:12,350 --> 00:26:15,900 goes all the way back to people like Lodge and Wilson. 499 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:21,990 People like Clinton and Bush. It was between people who saw 500 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,700 the US role as one of going out into the world and spreading 501 00:26:25,710 --> 00:26:29,810 democracy through multilateral institutions, as the Democratic 502 00:26:29,820 --> 00:26:32,450 Party believed, and those who believed that those were 503 00:26:32,460 --> 00:26:34,560 actually constraints on US freedom of action. 504 00:26:35,310 --> 00:26:36,890 And there's a straight line there as well. 505 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:41,010 Now there has always been a strong anti imperialist streak 506 00:26:41,020 --> 00:26:43,010 as well. Going back Mark Twain was very 507 00:26:43,020 --> 00:26:46,710 famous anti imperialist, but that's still alive today in the 508 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,810 old right and in the Libertarian Party. 509 00:26:48,860 --> 00:26:52,270 Now they believe that the United States needs to set an example. 510 00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:57,830 Of what a restrained constitutional government that 511 00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:02,330 promotes and places as its paramount, you know, stone 512 00:27:02,420 --> 00:27:05,110 individual liberty? We don't do that. 513 00:27:06,410 --> 00:27:08,120 We don't do that. And it's obvious. 514 00:27:08,190 --> 00:27:10,860 And people's admiration for the American system of government 515 00:27:10,930 --> 00:27:13,160 has only gone down in the last 20 years. 516 00:27:13,250 --> 00:27:15,230 And that's according to like, very establishment surveys. 517 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,210 You can read whole books on the crisis of democracy, blah, blah, 518 00:27:18,220 --> 00:27:20,220 blah. A big part of it is that the 519 00:27:20,230 --> 00:27:22,700 world's leading democracy, the United States, has performed 520 00:27:22,710 --> 00:27:26,080 like garbage and done. Speaking of spreading democracy, 521 00:27:26,150 --> 00:27:29,190 those campaigns have seriously hurt our image. 522 00:27:30,770 --> 00:27:34,800 Afghanistan, Iraq wars 1/2. Well, maybe not one but 523 00:27:34,810 --> 00:27:39,100 definitely two and three. You know our our involvement in 524 00:27:39,110 --> 00:27:42,620 Africa, our involvement in Yemen, our involvement in Latin 525 00:27:42,630 --> 00:27:46,500 America, I mean, our involvement in in Eastern Europe, I mean. 526 00:27:47,140 --> 00:27:49,240 It's, it's, it's been very bad for our brand. 527 00:27:50,070 --> 00:27:54,510 Even Iraq War One. Those sanctions against Iraq 528 00:27:54,520 --> 00:28:00,600 that were in effect ten years after were heavily looked upon 529 00:28:00,610 --> 00:28:04,820 negatively by the Islamic world and used as an al Qaeda 530 00:28:04,860 --> 00:28:08,140 recruitment method. So even like the best of the 531 00:28:08,150 --> 00:28:10,380 best still has terrible downsides. 532 00:28:10,490 --> 00:28:14,350 Absolutely. I I give Iraq War 1A pass only 533 00:28:14,360 --> 00:28:16,720 because the rest of the interventions of the unipolar 534 00:28:16,730 --> 00:28:19,260 moment were so utterly disastrous. 535 00:28:19,310 --> 00:28:22,710 But the sanctions? We're we're a step way too far. 536 00:28:22,780 --> 00:28:26,070 That killed hundreds of thousands of people and and it 537 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,290 did it damaged our brand you know and leaving the air bases 538 00:28:29,300 --> 00:28:32,030 there that was another one so you know there's there's a whole 539 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:33,930 bunch of things that that came from that. 540 00:28:33,940 --> 00:28:37,160 But no I don't think we should be militarily intervening in 541 00:28:37,170 --> 00:28:39,590 other countries trying to set up governments because we have a we 542 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,250 have a track record now that shows we suck at it. 543 00:28:43,660 --> 00:28:48,450 We were living on the fumes of having made out of Germany and 544 00:28:48,460 --> 00:28:51,190 Japan. Whole and powerful and 545 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,370 prosperous and it was like look at that we can nation build. 546 00:28:54,150 --> 00:28:57,430 OK, show me a successful case of nation building since then. 547 00:28:59,220 --> 00:29:03,210 One even then, wait. One that didn't result in the 548 00:29:03,220 --> 00:29:05,790 majority immediately taking power and kicking us out of the 549 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,070 country and aligning with a regional opponent of ours, Visa 550 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:15,510 V Iraq and Iran today. Yeah, and, and even the German 551 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,890 and Japanese conflicts, they came at the cost of killing 552 00:29:18,940 --> 00:29:23,950 millions of civilians there, and it gave half of Europe to Stalin 553 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:29,150 and allowed for the expansion of the of Chinese communism in 554 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,170 areas that it might be less influential. 555 00:29:31,260 --> 00:29:35,010 I'm not saying that Hirohito or the National Socialists were 556 00:29:35,060 --> 00:29:37,720 good or anything. Just stop lying about there's no 557 00:29:37,730 --> 00:29:40,090 downsides. We're just going and helping and 558 00:29:40,100 --> 00:29:44,670 making things good again. So let's say that I I just love 559 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:49,140 America so much, which I do, of course, and I want them to be 560 00:29:49,150 --> 00:29:52,950 the shining city on the hill. I want America to be the place 561 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,400 that people look towards for cultural ideas, for 562 00:29:56,410 --> 00:30:00,600 philosophical ideas. What are examples of some past 563 00:30:00,610 --> 00:30:05,020 empires allocating too many resources, or spending too much 564 00:30:05,090 --> 00:30:07,900 on war and losing their power and influence? 565 00:30:07,970 --> 00:30:10,780 Meaning that if you really want America to be strong, you might 566 00:30:10,790 --> 00:30:14,370 not want to be so belligerent. And foreign policy keep that's 567 00:30:14,380 --> 00:30:17,450 that's fabulous point. And there's actually a book that 568 00:30:17,460 --> 00:30:19,750 was one of the first books that I read when I got into this 569 00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,740 study about 10-12 years ago. It's called the rise and fall of 570 00:30:22,750 --> 00:30:25,520 the great powers. Yep. 571 00:30:26,460 --> 00:30:29,350 And it's everyone. It's every single one of the 572 00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,990 modern period, from the Spanish to the Dutch to the French to 573 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,130 the English and now to the American. 574 00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,920 I mean, it's overextension, it's overextension, it's 575 00:30:39,930 --> 00:30:43,250 overcommitment. It's not rebalancing your 576 00:30:43,260 --> 00:30:46,960 portfolio of commitments as your relative power diminishes. 577 00:30:47,610 --> 00:30:50,340 You know what I mean. Like, yes, there's a certain way 578 00:30:50,410 --> 00:30:54,380 a country can act when it has X amount of power versus its 579 00:30:54,390 --> 00:30:57,380 rivals. Now as it enjoys that position 580 00:30:57,390 --> 00:31:00,140 of relative preponderance, it needs to question, it needs to 581 00:31:00,150 --> 00:31:03,790 think about later. When the balance of power is not 582 00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:07,290 this way, how are my past actions going to have impacted 583 00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,450 my relationship today? For example, Visa V Russia? 584 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,620 I think we're at that same moment now with China. 585 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,650 I think we need to take a huge step back. 586 00:31:17,940 --> 00:31:21,450 And just we, we need to set up permanent avenues for dialogue. 587 00:31:21,490 --> 00:31:24,810 We need to commit to not doing escalatory things. 588 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,670 I think we need to clarify, you know, both to ourselves and 589 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,350 among each other. What exactly is the status of 590 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,790 Taiwan right now? Are we all OK with it? 591 00:31:34,650 --> 00:31:37,360 And my my preference would just be for everyone to just say, you 592 00:31:37,370 --> 00:31:39,850 know what, the status quo has worked this far. 593 00:31:40,530 --> 00:31:44,270 Let's just keep letting it be. Taiwan is incredibly prosperous. 594 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,710 China is becoming incredibly prosperous. the US benefits from 595 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:51,010 trading with both of them. A war would be unimaginably 596 00:31:51,020 --> 00:31:56,060 destructive for everyone. So it seems to me all of our 597 00:31:56,070 --> 00:31:58,380 interests are aligned and there being no war. 598 00:31:58,450 --> 00:32:00,420 So. And when we look at past great 599 00:32:00,430 --> 00:32:03,280 powers, a lot of them ended in cataclysmic wars. 600 00:32:03,290 --> 00:32:05,830 We know about things like the Thucydides and dynamic. 601 00:32:06,070 --> 00:32:08,430 Now there's a new one going around called Peking Power 602 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,220 syndrome, which basically they're trying to say, like, you 603 00:32:11,230 --> 00:32:15,580 know, China is 1, Imperial Germany was one, you know. 604 00:32:15,650 --> 00:32:19,200 But yes, these moments where a great power is trying to assert 605 00:32:19,210 --> 00:32:24,600 itself militarily, it often is a military overreach, you know? 606 00:32:24,690 --> 00:32:26,710 Look at look at what's happening in Ukraine right now. 607 00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:30,630 I mean this is this is just a disaster all the way around. 608 00:32:30,900 --> 00:32:34,580 Well how about if Russia didn't have its army fighting the First 609 00:32:34,590 --> 00:32:37,510 World War they might have been able to resist the Bolshevik 610 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:43,520 revolution in 1917 a a little easier that the Japanese empire 611 00:32:43,530 --> 00:32:47,220 was very aggressive and that didn't just make them purely you 612 00:32:47,230 --> 00:32:50,650 know loved by everyone and they were able to influence the world 613 00:32:50,700 --> 00:32:53,810 that they got blowback from that as well. 614 00:32:53,820 --> 00:32:56,970 It's it's. All these great powers get, can 615 00:32:56,980 --> 00:32:59,740 you give me the name of that book one more time please? 616 00:32:59,810 --> 00:33:04,180 The rise and fall of the Great powers is that by Paul Kennedy. 617 00:33:04,230 --> 00:33:07,120 It is by Paul Kennedy. And it's a really excellent, 618 00:33:07,130 --> 00:33:09,080 excellent book. And it's it's withstood the test 619 00:33:09,090 --> 00:33:12,080 of time so well and he really goes into fine examples. 620 00:33:12,090 --> 00:33:14,600 And I look at things like for example, one of the things that 621 00:33:14,610 --> 00:33:17,440 crushed the Spanish Empire was its diminishing tax base. 622 00:33:19,060 --> 00:33:22,110 The United States tax base has dwindled significantly and there 623 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,360 is a reason that when you look at the Federal Reserve balance 624 00:33:24,370 --> 00:33:26,640 sheet there's so many treasuries on there. 625 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:30,960 So like the the whole inflation situation is is one that more 626 00:33:30,970 --> 00:33:32,150 and more people are paying attention to. 627 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,200 But I think it's telling that the debate often centers not on 628 00:33:35,210 --> 00:33:38,770 the Fed but on whatever spending package Congress just signed, 629 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,910 which is so besides the point. Yeah, well. 630 00:33:44,530 --> 00:33:48,340 It's what in Randall warned about it, she said, well, when 631 00:33:48,350 --> 00:33:52,640 you discourage productive people from producing and you encourage 632 00:33:52,650 --> 00:33:56,860 parasites like, you know, the the rioters and the looters that 633 00:33:56,870 --> 00:34:00,160 are always being hailed politicians, the biggest looters 634 00:34:00,170 --> 00:34:03,490 of them all are constantly, you know, have we have to salute 635 00:34:03,500 --> 00:34:05,750 them. But business is totally evil and 636 00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,940 there's no benefits from from anything like that. 637 00:34:09,010 --> 00:34:12,260 And yeah, devaluing the currency, you'd think if the 638 00:34:12,270 --> 00:34:14,360 people who want to preserve the empire so much. 639 00:34:14,460 --> 00:34:16,500 Wanna make sure we have a strong currency? 640 00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:19,199 They couldn't couldn't be less interested. 641 00:34:19,210 --> 00:34:21,320 Well, the thing the thing about the currency is. 642 00:34:21,980 --> 00:34:25,070 Given the currency regime in place right now with everyone 643 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,409 using Fiat currencies, the dollar is actually strengthening 644 00:34:28,420 --> 00:34:31,389 tremendously. So it's actually been one of the 645 00:34:31,449 --> 00:34:34,909 the interesting divergences that people, I don't know if they 646 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,489 were expecting it or not, but as long as all the governments 647 00:34:38,500 --> 00:34:43,050 continue to behave the same way, you know, by comparison the 648 00:34:43,060 --> 00:34:46,330 dollar is actually strengthening quite a lot, which is also 649 00:34:46,420 --> 00:34:49,909 damaging the emerging markets and so you know more blowback 650 00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:51,830 from from the war in Ukraine and from them. 651 00:34:51,929 --> 00:34:54,320 Handling the the the inflation battle. 652 00:34:54,409 --> 00:34:57,090 That's why I think the Fed really needs to be the focus of 653 00:34:57,100 --> 00:35:00,980 these discussions. the Fed, of course, also enables us to play 654 00:35:00,990 --> 00:35:04,240 empire because we can always just turn on the printing press. 655 00:35:04,250 --> 00:35:07,600 We don't have hard money. So I'm not saying like yes, you 656 00:35:07,610 --> 00:35:10,300 absolutely must have hard money, like you can you can do without 657 00:35:10,310 --> 00:35:13,580 it, but like you have to show restraint, which they show no 658 00:35:13,590 --> 00:35:17,320 ability to do because they're in an incentive environment where 659 00:35:17,370 --> 00:35:20,380 they get money for their campaigns by saying belligerent 660 00:35:20,390 --> 00:35:22,250 things, taking money from the people who make these. 661 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:26,420 Happens, you know, taking jobs on their boards, taking very 662 00:35:26,430 --> 00:35:28,480 profitable jobs, lobbying for them. 663 00:35:28,730 --> 00:35:31,680 So I think that we need to have something. 664 00:35:31,910 --> 00:35:34,920 I mean, given the amount of unfunded liabilities the United 665 00:35:34,930 --> 00:35:38,280 States has outstanding, which is something like $108 trillion, I 666 00:35:38,290 --> 00:35:40,450 think we really need to have a discussion about the fact that 667 00:35:40,460 --> 00:35:42,770 we're running trillion dollar deficits, essentially putting 668 00:35:42,780 --> 00:35:45,280 the empire on the credit card. That's almost exactly what we 669 00:35:45,290 --> 00:35:48,660 spend on our military. So three more questions for you. 670 00:35:48,670 --> 00:35:52,020 Thank you so much for your time. One way we could falsify the 671 00:35:52,030 --> 00:35:53,990 thesis. Of well, if America just sits 672 00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:57,770 back, then China is going to run rampant across the world. 673 00:35:57,820 --> 00:36:01,290 Well, one thing we could do is look at past examples of America 674 00:36:01,300 --> 00:36:03,750 not intervening in foreign conflicts. 675 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:10,530 So anytime there's been a major conflict since 1776 and America 676 00:36:10,540 --> 00:36:12,410 has not intervened and the results haven't been 677 00:36:12,420 --> 00:36:15,010 detrimental, would work against this thesis. 678 00:36:15,100 --> 00:36:20,370 Are there any times America didn't intervene in great power 679 00:36:20,540 --> 00:36:23,590 issues and things turned out? Relatively. 680 00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:24,990 OK. Ohh yeah. 681 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,710 Staying out of the Napoleonic Wars was was essential. 682 00:36:28,060 --> 00:36:31,130 Those were human meat grinders. Those were devastating. 683 00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:35,660 And the US was able to relatively benefit from them by 684 00:36:35,670 --> 00:36:37,970 selling to both sides and staying out of the war. 685 00:36:37,980 --> 00:36:40,510 They grew relatively more powerful by comparison. 686 00:36:41,460 --> 00:36:44,510 Again, I think the US is in a different position now in the 687 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:46,970 world. Like it's it's realistic that 688 00:36:47,020 --> 00:36:49,720 other countries look to see what the United States thoughts on 689 00:36:49,730 --> 00:36:52,350 these things are, and I just don't think that we should de 690 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,460 facto. Assume the worst out of China. 691 00:36:55,750 --> 00:37:00,980 Like, yes, China is investing in like, you know, the Congo in 692 00:37:00,990 --> 00:37:03,920 places like that. Like, these are horribly, you 693 00:37:03,930 --> 00:37:07,320 know, savaged countries by war and desperation and stuff. 694 00:37:07,330 --> 00:37:09,950 Like if China wants to get involved there and like maybe do 695 00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:11,480 something good. I don't see Americans like 696 00:37:11,490 --> 00:37:13,970 American businesses and stuff lining up to do business there. 697 00:37:13,980 --> 00:37:17,120 Like, why? Why should we assume the worst? 698 00:37:17,950 --> 00:37:20,040 You know, we don't assume the worst when the French go out and 699 00:37:20,050 --> 00:37:22,340 do something, even though they're always looking out for 700 00:37:22,350 --> 00:37:23,590 their own national interests as well. 701 00:37:23,660 --> 00:37:24,790 The Chinese are doing the same thing. 702 00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,440 We need to be adult about it. I think we've forgotten how to 703 00:37:27,450 --> 00:37:29,370 do diplomacy you mentioned earlier. 704 00:37:30,060 --> 00:37:32,930 We made a deal with Stalin. We shook hands with Mao. 705 00:37:32,980 --> 00:37:36,050 Now we talk like. Now we we can't talk to Putin. 706 00:37:36,240 --> 00:37:40,200 It's like. We've forgotten what it's like 707 00:37:40,270 --> 00:37:43,520 to be among relative equals, let's put it that way. 708 00:37:43,770 --> 00:37:46,440 The unipolar moment, I think, really warped our sense of 709 00:37:46,450 --> 00:37:48,920 diplomacy. The Cold War really kept us in 710 00:37:48,930 --> 00:37:52,560 check in that way. And even during the Cold War 711 00:37:52,650 --> 00:37:57,380 there were times that the so I I read one story about the Soviets 712 00:37:57,390 --> 00:38:04,520 killing an American congressman in 1983 in the Kal 007 flight. 713 00:38:04,590 --> 00:38:06,720 Guys name was Larry McDonald I think. 714 00:38:06,790 --> 00:38:10,900 And the US managed to not wage war on the Soviets in response 715 00:38:10,910 --> 00:38:15,980 or like the Hungarian uprising in 1956 Eisen, even though the 716 00:38:15,990 --> 00:38:19,400 Soviets went in, killed innocent people, shut it all down 717 00:38:19,550 --> 00:38:23,810 Eisenhower. Uh, invited Kruschev to to Camp 718 00:38:23,820 --> 00:38:25,970 David. Even after that, you mentioned 719 00:38:25,980 --> 00:38:28,850 an incident in 1968 in Czechoslovakia. 720 00:38:28,860 --> 00:38:30,400 Could you quickly summarize that? 721 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,590 Well, again, that was an example of a popular uprising that was 722 00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,330 brutally suppressed. And again, the United States did 723 00:38:37,340 --> 00:38:40,200 nothing because it was perceived to be within the Soviet sphere 724 00:38:40,210 --> 00:38:42,610 of influence. It was simply a recognition that 725 00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:46,630 while certain things are morally repugnant to us, there is a 726 00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,080 context in which they occur where we are not going to do 727 00:38:49,090 --> 00:38:52,320 anything about it. Now that's not every context and 728 00:38:52,330 --> 00:38:55,210 I think we really need to think about the amount of security 729 00:38:55,220 --> 00:38:58,110 commitments that we still are carrying over from the Cold War. 730 00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:02,030 When our relative power differential and really look at, 731 00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:04,710 look at our situation now, we're not in the same situation we 732 00:39:04,720 --> 00:39:08,310 were then, we were oil importers then now we're net oil 733 00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,710 exporters. It's much less important to the 734 00:39:10,720 --> 00:39:13,330 American economy what happens in the rest of the world, 735 00:39:13,390 --> 00:39:15,170 especially in places like the Middle East. 736 00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:19,370 It was once admittedly pretty doggone important, now it's less 737 00:39:19,380 --> 00:39:21,710 so. It's certainly not anywhere to 738 00:39:21,720 --> 00:39:24,030 the extent that we need to be getting involved actively there, 739 00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:27,110 you know, I think actually us stepping away will encourage 740 00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:29,320 them to actually have to get along. 741 00:39:30,140 --> 00:39:33,490 Because no one's gonna be able to call in, you know, the giant 742 00:39:33,500 --> 00:39:36,080 with the big stick to just start smashing everything up. 743 00:39:36,380 --> 00:39:38,090 So they're going to have to get along. 744 00:39:39,190 --> 00:39:44,960 One of the main contradictions that the Hawks in society push 745 00:39:45,010 --> 00:39:48,960 is they say things like war is really good for the economy, it 746 00:39:48,970 --> 00:39:52,740 gets people spending money, it brings resources into work, and 747 00:39:52,750 --> 00:39:55,790 this is how economies grow. And then they also say, thank 748 00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,640 God those idiots. Soviets got duped into 749 00:39:58,650 --> 00:40:01,680 Afghanistan in the late 70s. That's what brought down their 750 00:40:01,690 --> 00:40:03,640 economy. Well, certainly you would think 751 00:40:03,650 --> 00:40:05,960 that that would have stimulated it, just like you guys always 752 00:40:05,970 --> 00:40:09,000 said. So Joe Mullins is war. 753 00:40:09,070 --> 00:40:14,850 Good or bad for the economy, it's actually a net loss and so 754 00:40:14,860 --> 00:40:18,970 is military spending in terms of what it contributes to civilian 755 00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:22,700 and commercial uses. That was not the case all the 756 00:40:22,710 --> 00:40:26,530 way up through 19, gosh, I want to say 1992. 757 00:40:26,580 --> 00:40:29,500 But at that point the return started to become negative. 758 00:40:29,620 --> 00:40:32,830 So, and this is all according to like high high grade academic 759 00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:35,170 stuff here. It's just not money well spent 760 00:40:35,240 --> 00:40:38,190 and you know all the money that you can spend blowing stuff up, 761 00:40:38,260 --> 00:40:39,900 you could use it much. Better and much more 762 00:40:39,910 --> 00:40:42,930 productively building stuff up, to say nothing of the human 763 00:40:42,940 --> 00:40:44,950 cost. So the idea that war is good for 764 00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,590 the economy, or that World War Two got us out of the 765 00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:49,220 depression? All false. 766 00:40:50,330 --> 00:40:53,840 What is the biggest lesson you learned from hotter than the sun 767 00:40:53,910 --> 00:40:58,410 by Scott Horton? Gosh, just how close we've come. 768 00:40:59,270 --> 00:41:02,860 To a nuclear explosion happening just by sheer accident. 769 00:41:04,530 --> 00:41:08,060 It it was just so unbelievable to read all of these, you know, 770 00:41:08,070 --> 00:41:10,490 first hand accounts of like, yeah, then this happened and it 771 00:41:10,500 --> 00:41:13,860 was like, ohh, we dropped that. And it was like, are you kidding 772 00:41:13,870 --> 00:41:15,080 me? Is this the kind of stuff we're 773 00:41:15,090 --> 00:41:16,680 talking about? They accidentally dropped one, 774 00:41:16,690 --> 00:41:18,680 you know, like in North Carolina. 775 00:41:18,730 --> 00:41:20,420 Yeah, it is. Just like, what? 776 00:41:20,510 --> 00:41:22,720 Because my fear is what if it had detonated? 777 00:41:22,730 --> 00:41:25,580 Like how many questions are gonna get asked before? 778 00:41:25,590 --> 00:41:27,750 Like our bombers are in the air and like. 779 00:41:28,900 --> 00:41:31,730 Is that are we gonna know, are they gonna know quick enough 780 00:41:31,740 --> 00:41:34,610 that central command gonna know that that was one of ours? 781 00:41:35,250 --> 00:41:37,740 And not, you know, the first strike of an attack. 782 00:41:37,750 --> 00:41:40,740 Like, I don't know, I, I I'm really opposed to nuclear 783 00:41:40,750 --> 00:41:43,050 weapons. I understand that they're here 784 00:41:43,250 --> 00:41:47,230 at this point, probably now that certain regimes have them that 785 00:41:47,240 --> 00:41:50,680 the United States is like allergic to, like North Korea. 786 00:41:50,740 --> 00:41:52,110 We're probably always going to have some. 787 00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:55,330 But gosh darn, I just, I don't want them to be anywhere near 788 00:41:55,340 --> 00:41:58,840 anyone's finger. I mean, not unless, you know, 789 00:41:58,850 --> 00:42:02,160 the United States is going to be overwhelmed by an alien army 790 00:42:02,170 --> 00:42:04,780 because that's literally the only conceivable situation I can 791 00:42:04,790 --> 00:42:06,130 imagine us. Were being under threat. 792 00:42:07,140 --> 00:42:09,450 No, we are literally invulnerable. 793 00:42:10,660 --> 00:42:15,170 Check out the links in the description to find the work of 794 00:42:15,180 --> 00:42:18,730 Joe Salas Mullins. I will also link to that book, 795 00:42:18,740 --> 00:42:22,770 the rise and fall of great powers by Paul Kennedy. 796 00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,530 Thanks to everyone for watching the Libertarian Institute. 797 00:42:25,580 --> 00:42:27,290 And Keith Knight, don't tread on anyone. 798 00:42:27,410 --> 00:42:29,190 Mr Mullin, thanks so much for your time. 799 00:42:29,380 --> 00:42:30,770 Thank you, Keith. It was a pleasure.