Week 1 is in the books. No Achilles is safe.
But we're here to take you through all of the stats, all of
the charts. This is STAT Chase Pat Fryer
helmos. This is This is why I'm hot
Anita. Hand job fix your site Jamar L12
point chase this is for you. Can't handle the heat It looks
like we're. Finally fit for If You're Right
welcome to Stat chasing week one.
I am happy to join my host dricco here as we go through
some of the stats and the charts that we've put together from all
of the week one games. Pretty wild week of NFL.
For those of you not familiar with me and my work, I am
sacrilegious. I do content over at Spike week
where we focus on pretty purely best ball related content and
strategy and tools. I'm pretty frequently in the
Discord channel hanging out in the Deposit Kingdom channels and
the Ship chasing channel, and you may have seen me as a
finalist in the Best Ball Data Bowl this year, but very happy
to be joining DRICCO this season for stat chasing and looking
forward guiding you guys through some charts.
Yeah, and really, really excited to have you sack and was really
hoping that you would accept this.
So pump that you did, and they're really excited to get
into into these charts with you. Yeah, definitely.
Gosh, I mean, I know that every season it feels like week one is
so chaotic and there's so much crazy stuff that happens that we
never could have predicted. But it it's just par for the
course, man. That's what the game is, that we
sign up to play like it's just all chaos.
And there's only so much we can do.
You know, spending months in the offseason talking about it and
projecting things. But the rubber's meeting the
road now, so it's time to get down to business.
Yeah, with we thought with that pretty good transition.
So we are going to start off with our QP passing efficiency
and rushing production chart. And so this chart shows two
things. It shows that adjusted yards per
tent, which is essentially a passing efficiency per tent
metric, it based in. It rewards touchdowns and then
punishes interceptions. So it's it's really a kind of a
pure how good were you at at showing the ball for attempt and
then at on the other hand we also have a touchdown rate.
Obviously, data that is a good high touchdown rates are signs
of good productive offenses, and but they can also be a tale on
that Who has had a. In a sort of unsustainably high
push down rate, if you see a guy with low yards for attempt and
then high at touchdown rate, it's kind of sort of a tell of a
possibly an outlier and and really the reason that we oh I
should also mention the size of the bubble also corresponds to
to rushing yards and bigger bubble, more rushing yards per
game. And and really what we're trying
to we're trying to sort of gauge which quarterbacks have played
well, which quarterbacks are playing well and trying to use
that as a kind of gauge for a future performance going
forward. And and with that sacked is
there anybody here who who stands out to you.
Yeah I mean Lamar Jackson had a really unproductive first game I
I think and and obviously since we're only dealing with one week
of sample like a lot of this is really noisy.
But one thing that I think is super important is with the
quantitative side of the data, we also wanna be able to apply
the qualitative side too. And it's, you know, it's not
that one type of data is inherently more valuable than
the other, but they just, it's just different flavors, you
know, and being able to mesh the two together is how you get the
best actionable takeaways. And so for example like when I
see Jordan Love up there with above a 10% TD rate and insane
adjusted yards per attempt, there's a couple things that I'm
thinking #1 like, OK, Jordan Love had a pretty good week one
now it might be the Bears defense was pretty bad.
He might have just been running hot.
But there's at least enough signal there where I'm like
Jordan Love probably is going to be, at the very least, a
functional NFL quarterback this season.
Right. Sorry, I am.
One of one of the things that that that reminds me of is that
like the more extreme, the outlier, it's like the more
likely it's at least directionally accurate, like
100%. Yeah, I agree with that very
much because even if you say that, Oh well, he was so far
above what his base TD rate is going to be on the season like.
OK, well think of this as every data point we get is gonna fall
in the range of outcomes for these guys for each game.
And so this just means that this is in the range for Jordan Love.
And so for that to be in the range, he either has a really
long right tail where this was like a major outlier for him or
maybe this isn't so so terribly far away from his mean.
And I, you know, I think he's probably, you know, at least a
full standard deviation away from what his mean outcome is
gonna be. But I still like Jordan Love,
you know, is a competent NFL quarterback on the season.
Yeah. And and and and the way I'm sort
of feeling about it is that like you know if if the market would
if the market and and and there's various markets there's
like waiver markets and there's a.
There's there's dry kings. There's as far as resurrection
coming up. Yeah.
And if the market doesn't buy that and I'm seeing it then like
it's a pretty that that's a pretty good sign that listen it
it, it costs you nothing to take a swing at this.
And then the Europe side could be pretty good here and and and
something to watch out for like if we see if we're in weak tree
and he's in that range like that, that's getting pretty,
pretty bullish. Yeah, it's a it's kind of the
the NBA jams you know heating up on fire kind of mentality.
If Jordan Love is doing this week after week, all of a sudden
we got to pay attention and kind of the flip side of this is
market overreaction to the downside.
So for example, someone like Justin Fields, where we see the
size of that data point, you know, he, and that's this is not
a surprise to anyone. We knew Justin Fields was gonna
run and he didn't have a great passing performance week one.
But the Packers have a good pass defense.
And so if people are overreacting on Justin Fields in
the market and Oh my gosh, we knew he was not gonna pass
enough to sustain DJ Moore and you don't really want parts of
that offense, you know, I'm willing to take shots on Fields
because he absolutely has that ceiling.
You know, you look at how much he rushed in that first game.
The only person with, you know, a dot similar size like Anthony
Richardson for him and and Deshaun Watson.
But I mean field still is is dwarfing both of them so?
Yeah, I completely agree. And one one other thing that
sort of stands out to me and it's it's not a it's not.
I guess it's not too big a surprise since the fantasy
performance he produced Stafford there at.
Around 9 yards at I just suggest for attempt with a 0% touchdown
rate and that that does seem like the type of game where you
know if if Stafford still has it he could be one of those pocket
passers that is so efficient that he he he actually he
creates that he creates enough points for himself to at cost to
really compete. With the kind of more hybrid
guys. Yeah, absolutely.
And Stafford's the kind of quarterback where I'm gonna be
very price sensitive on him. You know, just just like guys,
you know, if you think back to best ball ADP this summer, just
like guys like Jared Goff and Geno Smith and that kind of
range, that end of the QB window.
Like I don't. I don't think it's unfair to say
Stafford probably belongs in that range, but we saw this in
his Super Bowl winning season. Even when he was doing really
well for Fantasy, it was a mixed bag.
There were, you know, there were about half his games where you
were really happy to have him, about half the games.
And that's just the nature of pocket passers of.
That yeah, I I completely agree. And and then one other thing
that that I'm sort of like still trying to react to a little bit
and was somehow I taught going into week one that going against
like a kind of like. Not very strong at Cardinals at
defense that he might he might look even better than I was
imagining him to be. And then he actually comes in
sort of like sort of average. Is that a, is that alarming to
you at all? Yeah, that is.
It is a little concerning to me. I definitely want more sample.
Again, it's a, it's a brand new offense for him, right?
And it's not like he got playing time or reps last season.
So I'm still I'm leaving a light on for Sam Howe absolutely.
But this it wasn't encouraging you know and I I also again only
one week of data hard to draw you know too many huge
conclusions. I kind of think the Cardinals
defense, I I think they're bad, but I don't think they are going
to be as bad as the market thinks that they are just, I
mean, I didn't watch the entire game, but from the little bit
that I watched and from a little bit that I saw in preseason, I
think we might have oversold how bad the Cardinals are.
I think they're bad, but I I don't think they're gonna be
like the absolute Stonewars defense of the league.
There, there. There's still some NFL talent on
their defense, is what you're saying?
Yeah. Seem seems very reasonable and
so maybe a little bit of concern on that on how and but maybe
yeah maybe we need a couple more games to to.
Rate really want to adjust aggressively.
The other the other guy I'm leaving a light on for is Kenny
Pickett. You know, not a not a great
first game I think it was he's in the 40 like 42 pass attempts
or something ridiculous and like couldn't crack 300 yards.
He's like in the mid two hundreds like 260 or something.
So that wasn't ideal to see, but it was a good it was against a
great defense. And then on the flip side of
that game, Oh my gosh, I'm going to have to hold so many Brock
Purdy elves this season. It's going to be pretty painful
for me. I I did not pack enough Purdy.
Yeah that the offense is just really good and we'll see if
that trend continues or if at some point he turns back into a
pumpkin. But I'm just I'm ready to take
the L on that one right now. He's he's probably gonna be a
pretty solid you know. Yeah, fringe, you know, Bottom
end QB one, like, definitely squarely in the QB two
conversation week after week. And he'll have those upside game
when he when he captures a lot of the touchdowns, you know,
when it's just all passing touchdowns instead of rushing
touchdowns, you're gonna be happy to play him that week or
happy he's on your team. I agree with that on Purdy and I
think I might be a little bit more concerned about picket than
than you and and some of that. So obviously we've only we've
only got the week 1 sample size, but if if I'm also looking for
extra data points I go back to last year.
He didn't say he didn't play very well last year and overall
and then as a college player other than a senior year he was
pretty brutal and so he goes he has the first round draft
capital and he did have that amazing senior year and but I I
I think with enough kind of like alternative data points I'm I'm
completely ready to be wrong on this.
I'm definitely pretty concerned about Pickett after.
Pretty brutal, that first game, Yeah, one of the last.
The last one that I really wanted to bring up is if you
look at Desmond Ritter, he doesn't look that bad on this
chart, but right. My goodness.
I mean, like the amount of past attempts to that team had, if
that trend holds, if that team only passes 18 * a game or even
23 * a game or 20, like, Oh my gosh, it's gonna be, yeah, not
good. So that's unfortunate.
And it's a man with a lot of Desmond Ritter.
Yeah, he was, definitely. He felt like a yeah, a good, a
good what you call it. A good kind of upside case given
that he he's pretty fast. He's a good athlete.
You've got good weapons there and but yeah, very, yeah, very,
very concerning. Yeah, I think we need, we need
like an Arthur Smith head injury to unlock the Ritter.
And one thing that I am saying and and and maybe to leave some
some kind of like candle on, they did have like I don't know
818 flays where they're ahead by more than the touchdown.
They didn't have a single play where they're trailing and I
mean, I know there was definitely plays our games last
year where they're wearing and trailing at games grips and it
just didn't matter. It didn't matter.
But maybe, maybe it's not quite as bad.
Maybe that's something where it is bad.
It's definitely bad, but maybe it's not as bad as.
As week one was, yeah, yeah, I mean they're we'll need more
data points to know for sure. But their schedule's pretty
soft. Like I could absolutely see them
getting leads in a in a lot of games this year, right, And just
never putting their foot on the gas.
So that's. Concerning 18 POS attempts in in
week 1 and so I'm I'm sort of like trying to figure this out a
little bit on the fly as well and.
And it's like even even if what I said before was correct and
and let's say that they they get in more neutral scripts.
You're looking at like 25 attempts a game and which it's
it's it's not really it's not really enough.
Yeah when you look at it. When you when you look at the
half offenses that are are thrown plus 40 and.
That, that, that that's not really enough.
And and if week one is to be believed I mean what was it like
50% or something? It might have been even higher.
Was it was it 50% or 75%. I can't remember target share to
the running backs like Oh my God we're just we're never gonna
throw the ball downfield like Kyle piss and and Drake London
just get none and like it like oh right, man.
Yes. That's all that's the thing I'll
do about Desmond Render, though. So the only other thing that
that I thought might be worth bringing up is that is Bryce.
Bryce Young and so he they definitely they they threw it
quite a bit and but not only a small bit of a rushing yardage
there. And really quite for efficiency.
So that that's one where I was before before this season I I I
drafted a decent amount of that Bryce Young just because I was
like Oh well you know he's an early drafted rookie and
American is so confident that he's bad like feels like
something to take a stab on the the other way and that that's
one where I'm like you know like that.
You need more than a week for. It's more than a Week 1 rookie
sample size to decide that he's bad, but it's definitely
something I'm keeping an eye on. Yeah, I definitely am more
optimistic about Stroud. Not that he didn't look so great
or anything, but they did allow him to throw.
He had 44 attempts or something like that.
Yeah. And so I'm definitely maybe
maybe this Houston staff is willing hey just let's get your
reps we're gonna need reps you know there we got some growing
pains to get through that's that's a spot.
And also like Nico Collins finally did what we've been
hoping Nico Collins would do for his entire NFL career.
So and Robert Woods was involved like that's a that's looking
like it might shape up to be a very fine last round best ball
pick. But yeah, like one of those.
Offenses that's that's like not actually good but functional
enough to create these kind of late round winners.
Hundred 100% Ohh and sorry I had the million last things but the
Mac Jones that that offense. I mean the thesis wasn't that
hard to get behind. Like, hey, you had the
Stonewurst offensive coordinator that's been in the league in the
last two decades calling plays last year, and it can't be
worse. You know, it literally can't be
worse. And Mac Jones threw for 3800
yards as a rookie. And it's not like when he was a
rookie, he had all these weapons.
It was like, well, that's why he threw for 3800 yards.
It was, it's the same cast of characters, basically, you know,
I could still Devante Parker and Kendrick Bourne and Hunter
Henry. And so I think the market went
way too far the other way on Mac Jones.
I think that's gonna be he doesn't he doesn't even have to
be good. He doesn't have to be good to
crush his price. You know, like, right, if he
better than Stroud and Dobbs and Young and Tannehill and, you
know, I don't. I don't think Daniel Jones is
gonna be putting up stinkers quite as bad as this past week.
But like what What if Mac Jones is better than Daniel Jones.
You know, like couldn't couldn't not be in the range of outcomes
of like we were taking Mac Jones in the 18th round and Daniel
Jones in the tenth round. Like this thing?
Yeah, I definitely agree. And I think with how efficiently
priced quarterbacks have been, you get in our performance even
later, it can be really helpful. So that's here we go.
So now. Now we've got the Orbi Snaps and
usage chart and and just I. Gotta zoom out just a tiny bit
on this one. Ohh.
I do, I do. I do.
I do exit cancel. While you while you work on
getting that zoomed, some of the stuff that I saw at first when I
put this together was. Oh my goodness.
James Connor might have some of the best usage for where his
where he was priced in the market and I still don't care.
Couldn't care less. The other one that I saw right
away that I looked at was dear God, Naji Harris.
What were we doing? Anyone who has drafted Naji
Harris out there, you want to tell me what we were doing?
You know, with Naji in the fourth round, like.
I'm I'm pretty sure the actual if if we had a time machine and
we could port ourselves to week one and see this outcome, even
even just this single data point.
Like is it the efficient price for Naji Harris and Jalen
Warren? Like both of them in the 10th or
11th round? Like both of them right next to
each other in A and and and so just just to to to to emphasize
that point. So I think Naji Harris is
probably a good one to to to kind of explain what this chart
is. So this chart is essentially
their rush attempts, their their roots and and different blocking
and snaps as a percentage of the total offense.
So if you add up and you see where's Naji you can see that
what we're saying here is Naji was only on the field for the
Steelers offense 50% of the time and then a large the large
amount of that time was actually route running which that
definitely nice a small percentage is a rush attempts
but this at 50% as you can see in the kind of hierarchy of
starters here it's pretty low down the totem pole and not not
encouraging for for Naji drafters at all.
I don't think it definitely this does this does go a decent
amount towards I guess the the bearer thesis for Naji and so
sack. One thing that this does make me
think, especially with the with the high root share, do you
think that his overall kind of like market share on snaps was
low because the the Steelers were getting spun throughout?
Yeah, absolutely. They passed.
What was it, 7075% of their place were passed place.
And so that's definitely, yeah, that's definitely a function,
you know that. That's why you see so many
routes for Naji Harris. And the other thing is the
routes are encouraging to see for players that can earn
targets, and he's not. That dude, you know, like,
right. The last time Naji got targeted
was when Big Ben's noodle arm couldn't get the ball more than
five yards down the field and it had to be Naji or it had to be
Deontay. And those are the only options
in the passing game. And so I don't really think,
like, you know, if we look at Naji Harris's routes that he's
running versus say, like, I mean, shoot, Dalvin Cook didn't
look great either. But even like the Dalvin Cook
routes like. And at least he got some
targets, you know, like, I mean, shoot, Tyler Algier, like Tyler
Algier got some targets, like so.
Yeah, empty calorie routes, empty calorie routes.
He had like 3 expected receiving points, which is it's, it's,
it's that's pretty, pretty bad. He had 24 routes in all and was
only able to sort of convert that into tree expected
receiving points. And so even in trail like it
used to be like you said in in in the kind of peak Naji year.
It used to be that even in trailing scripts he was just
this workhorse. So he was going to be running
routes, he's going to be targeting targeted.
So really, your own your only path to to scoring points with
Naji? Yeah.
As it stands, what we're looking at here is that the Seals are
really good and that they're they're getting Naji to go line
and he's following into touchdowns.
Yep, yeah, right. Very, very well put.
Couldn't agree more. Other concerning points on this
chart. I saw Derek mentioned Derek
Henry in the chat. This one is not as concerning to
me. I know it looks bad here, but
Taji Spears is on the field. To do the stuff where it didn't
they needed a warm body at the running back position and now
Taje was was involved in the passing game.
He's running routes and doing things like that.
But I don't necessarily think it's terribly bullish for
Derrick Henry. It's just they're they're trying
to be smart with how they're using him when it's when it
could literally be anybody that they they've got a job that they
need done on a play and it can literally just be a a warm body.
They're gonna keep Henry off the field and then when it's, you
know when they wanna call his number, he's gonna be in there.
So his SNAP percentage definitely is concerning.
You know, it's, I don't think it's bullish for Henry, but it's
not as concerning as it looks. The one that's actually
concerning to me and this is for a couple factors that don't show
up on the chart is Damian Pierce.
So we'll probably talk a little bit about this backfield later.
But Mike Boone got like all the two-minute work and so that was
concerning where Damien Pierce is going to be losing out on
some of those high value touches there.
And it's not like we expected him to be terribly involved in
the past game either. But their offensive line is just
decimated. You know Thorman's line rankings
show that. What are they missing like 3
starters right now and they're they're just rolling out, you
know, future bag boys at Safeway right now on the line.
And so it's. I'm not bullish on the
efficiency, the rush efficiency of that offense.
He's getting less work than we anticipated.
And it could have just been because they're getting, you
know, getting beat bad by the Ravens.
But the game was close for a little while and Singletary got
a little bit and boom, got a little bit.
I just to me, it's not super exciting for Damien Davis.
Dead zone running. Back.
Yeah, he oh it's dude that's the that's the hallmark.
You know who else looked like a dead zone running back?
Oh my goodness. Alexander Madison slappies.
Where are you at? Raise your hand when you're
drafting Alexander Madison. You know in the 50s and 60s
because you're all, you're all the biggest slappies.
If you're just doing the Madison thing there, that was like the
clearest Hammer it all the way until like pick 80 when he
shoots up and Dalvin gets cut. And then don't touch it with a
10 foot pole because it's just you're paying for projectable
volume. For a guy that's never been
good. He he is always even in the
games where he got like 30 opportunities he wasn't good.
He just like he just got four fed carries and yeah man not not
super excited about Alexander Madison after what I saw.
I mean the usage is great, but if you if he played terrible.
He played terrible if you play like that for.
By Week 10, if Alexander Madison doesn't start turning in
performances that are better than he showed in week one, you
know good luck keeping that usage.
That's other other dudes are coming for that work so it
probably helps him slightly and I'm I think on the record pretty
strongly as being pretty anti Madison.
It probably does help him a little bit that they paid him
like solidish money and but they're really they're not
paying him anywhere near enough to like it for him to get away
with my so he he had -5 points over expected.
So five points under expected and which means he played pretty
ass and as our friend as our friend, Clay said.
And you it's just especially in when you get into a week, into
the later weeks of the season that that's just, it's not a
helpful profile. And so that's probably a more
helpful nugget for, let's say, resurrection and what you call
it. DFS and for redraft too.
Like for for anyone out in the redraft streets.
Like if you can move if you can move Madison, I mean it.
It's not like you got a great performance in week 1 to go sell
high on. But like if you could tell the
volume story to your league mates that really love the
projectable volume for running backs like you can get out from
under. Yeah, you can get out from under
Alexander Vadison here. So one of the you might feel
like you're selling low and well maybe maybe you're selling high,
you're selling while he has the role and and maybe he keeps the
role, but if he it doesn't help you.
I I would anticipate he keeps this role for longer.
We're we're all going to be frustrated with how long Madison
has this role this season, right?
Yeah agree. So if you're if you're really
trying to play it optimally, maybe wait for a big week and
you you get off him. But I am not excited for Madison
going forward. One of the other guys on this
chart who might might appear to be really attractive where this
is this is just noise to me, is Deon Jackson.
Deon Jackson looked bad. He had two fumbles.
He really only got all these snaps because Evan Hole, the
most talented back on the roster currently other than JT, got
injured. And you know you got Zach Moss
with a broken arm. And so it's like, all right,
Deon, we're just gonna. I guess you're the guy.
So is, is he? I guess you're the guy.
Yeah, going for the next two weeks or so until.
I I think that Moss may be able to be back next week.
Not that that's terribly exciting either.
I for me that backfield is just a stay away.
Yeah, for right now I because we don't think he's he's the we
don't think he's getting this usage or he's like a strong case
for this usage going forward and then not at not as strong yeah
not a strong player. Yeah, even even if he does get
this, pretend he gets this usage one more week.
I don't care. You know, like give me someone
with way less usage that could actually do something with it.
So yeah and so I know this is a ship chasing at rudder pod start
chasing and but we can't spend the whole time shooting on
running backs and speaking so talking about more positive
running backs. So Travis ETN and being top of
the chart for Orbi usage and and given how good we know he is and
let's say so he was going I know he was going like let's say 3-4
turn and maybe maybe four round and in normal regular basketball
season and how what do you think is like an efficient ADP going
into resurrection now. Yep, squarely.
The beginning of the third, like 2-3, turn right before that
tier. So if you go back to where we
were drafting this summer, there's that big, precipitous
teardrop, right, right, right at the end of the two, three.
Turn. Whereas like T Higgins is the
last stop on the wide receiver train.
And then you're staring down like DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen,
Debo Samuel type of guys. And I I think that ETN goes
ahead of all of that type of wide receiver.
Now the names, the names may change a little bit.
You know, like Calvin Ridley now is gonna be pretty squarely in
the second round for receivers. Yeah, he he was creeping up.
But I think that he's Etn's probably pretty squarely that
2-3 turn. He's the first back after the
wide receiver cut off. Yeah, yeah, I think so.
And my I mean my thesis on ETN this offseason was you heard
everyone talk about how he was. A zero in the passing game.
He wasn't good. You know, you're really that if
you're hoping for for passing game work from ETN, you're just
wish casting. You know, he wasn't even good at
it in college. It just was.
He was the best player on the field.
But we're ignoring one important thing.
These are professional athletes. They are the best in the world
at their craft and believe it or not, with the best coaching
around them they've ever had in their whole life.
They can actually improve sometimes at things that they
might not have previously been great at.
And so he didn't even. He doesn't need to be you know
an Alvin Kamara level talent in the receiving game.
He he just needs to be someone that they can use in the
receiving game and certainly think he's better than Tank
Bigsby in the receiving game. The concerning note for him was
Tank Bigsby did get those Green Zone touches over him.
He got the one at like the five or six and and pushed it all the
way down to the one with that big pile and then he got the.
Carry to plunge in the end zone right after that and ETN wasn't
good at the goal line last season, right, Those short
yardage things, that was a place where he struggled.
So, right, it's not all sunshine and roses for ETN, but overall
I'm trending bullish on ETN and I, you know I I like guys that
can deliver explosive plays like that.
And if he does actually take a step forward in his involvement
in the passing game that's that's a great sign for him.
Yeah I I agree and and I mean I'm sort of like I'm actually
thinking that he should I tend to really overreact and and
maybe this so fade my overreaction and and stay closer
to to Sachs more modest or moderate in in stride reaction.
I sort of think that if the if that usage continues, I think
he's like literally a first round value and like you talk
about sort of like 10 double double s.
So like 10 expected rushing points or say 10 expected points
from rushing and then ten expected points from passing.
He was like 8 1/2 and eight and for yesterday and then he had
almost five points over expected.
So that seems to me like a really like like if and I I sort
of believe what happened yesterday maybe I'm biased and
but I if I if I believe that I'm like that's a pretty strong like
case for 20 to 25 points a game and which to me maybe maybe that
doesn't count as first round anymore and but to me that that
that feels like total total smash running back and and it
would be really hard for me to not just click them every time
in a second. OK, maybe maybe I didn't come up
high enough. Because when I think about it in
my head, I'm like, yes, I'm taking Travis Etn over Sake 1
Barkley, but I was, I was moving Barkley down, but maybe I just
didn't move ETN up enough. I don't, I think first round,
where would you put impressive Pollard, for example?
I would still take Pollard over ETN.
We We didn't get to see a ton of Pollard just because of the
absolute dog walking the Cowboys gave the clients.
But Pollard, it Pollard is the. And that's like the ceiling
outcome for ETN right? Like I I feel like #1 the
offensive line is better he's he's gonna have more yards just
blocked for him Pollard is than ETN.
They both can deliver those explosive rushing plays.
But Pollard we know is a big plus in the passing game like he
he's he's a good pass catching back and so ETN we're we're
hoping that he's now like not a minus in the passing game that
he's he's able to contribute. I think it's it's a lot to say.
Like Ohh all of a sudden he went from being really bad in the
passing game to being incredible like Tony Pollard is.
So I I'm trying to think if there's someone that would be
between Pollard and ETN right? Or.
If it's just Pollard than ETN because he's he's better than
Barkley, where where do you put Chubb relative to those two?
Chubb is a hard one for me and I've I I I've always found it
really hard to to take Chub and and I do find honestly I find it
pretty strange or or not strange at all.
I I find it sort of like confirmation for me that after
all the hype all this all the steam and such that Chub was now
going to have this turned down role that he was what you call
it that he that he he was now like pure and enter bell cow
territory and then he still he still seems fairly close to to
what he was before and so I I I I feel like he's he he's like
probably like a fine second round two tree turn back and so.
You'd put him squarely behind ETN and Pollard, though.
That sounds like a tear break for you.
Almost. Yeah, I would.
And that that's one where I probably don't play it like that
in in week to week games just because I know what Chuck can
do. But in season, in season long
and it does feel like the the sort of path for for ETN and and
Pollard to deliver, it just smashed performance.
It does seem a little clearer to me.
Yeah, so I last night after I changed my pants after the first
breeze haul run, I made a slight overreaction RB tier list and it
was breeze tear break, CMC tear break, then Eckler Bijan ETN,
Pollard tear break. And that was that was kind of
the way that I had it sorted sounds like sounds like we're
pretty close and sounds like we're so is there anybody else,
I mean Kenneth Walker obviously pretty strong usage there, we'd
love to see that and Bijon decent usage.
Is there anybody else on on this chart that you want there?
Ohh I mean we we can't bury bury Kyron news because Kyron's Kyron
is the back there. Like I mean yeah Sean yeah Sean
McVeigh hates Cam Acres and has has been pretty vocal about that
he doesn't like Cam Acres and and we we had the drum beat from
Kyron all the way through last you know last offseason we're
getting the Kyron drum beat and the team the team told us
exactly how they feel about their backs and then they went
out and showed us what they wanna do with them.
So I would just say now Kyron is he's a sub athlete.
He's not right. It's not gonna be anything
terribly exciting but if he gets he's a coach.
Yeah, he's a coach's son and he's like a low end RV2 for me
where it's like, I mean Ed is where he was going, like my God,
what an absolute gem. If you drafted Kyron like,
congratulations, that's looking really good.
But. I guess the question is, so
obviously we love what we see and great outcome for the late
round drafters and the two questions I would have is, is
Kyron someone where when you're bidding on waivers?
That you just like, you know what, I don't care if I have to
pay 6070%, I'm just going to do it.
And then other similary, let's say I know he's cheap, he's he's
going to be super cheap on DraftKings next week and let's
say he's projecting for like 60% ownership like that.
Those are two different questions.
I know. I like what?
Hey, what are what are you doing on bids and and and are are are
you jamming them at high ownership?
Because I know you're avid and good DFS player on on waivers.
For Kyron, it depends largely on my team, right?
If I'm in need of a running back, that's a guy where I'm
like, hey, this is not a zero this week.
This is a guy where I can plug this in and have some points.
It might not be so terribly sexy, but you know, I I've got a
redraft league with some buddies where, you know, I I just lost
JK Dobbins. I'm sitting on DeAndre Swift and
Rashad Penny and my only good running back is Breece Hall.
You know, I've got got a Sean Tucker stash in there, but like
on a team like that, yeah, I'm. I'm gonna pay up for Kyron.
I'm probably not getting to 6070%.
I I want to save that. Like hypothetically, I'd never
wish this but hypothetically say Austin Eckler misses extended
time, I'm going 6070% on Josh Kelly right.
That's that's the kind of play where I'm gonna put the chips in
the middle. Kyron.
Kyron is more like a if you need him you might go to 3035% and
way. I mean like.
Make make total sense to me and I would kind.
Of function you a little bit there because.
This chart is so bullish that. I know that somebody would be
like, oh wow, like I just jam them.
And then maybe you wanna take a step back from there just with
the leticism. And then if that's where you're
at, it sounds like you're not playing about 60%.
I'd have to look at the whole slate for DFS.
It really depends on, you know everything and how it balances
out together. But if he's like a legitimate
free, if he's stoneman and he's free square, I can't remember
who the Rams who do the Rams play next week?
I don't know either, yeah. Anyway, I I mean, I I'm probably
not super excited to play him at 60% in tournaments, you know,
but he definitely could be like a cash game play, just with
strong usage price. Yeah it was more like a yeah
what I was trying to get at was like do you think it's something
where he he he can get he can act delivery the smash
performance and and and you're not really worried about the
downside and it sounds like there is maybe maybe some some
some concern there that this this is week one and we could we
could definitely still get sort of like a down to air game.
Yeah. Where Cam Makers comes up in
usage or he just plays bad. Yeah, I I could.
I definitely see the downside for Kyron.
But I I think for the most part like that's a quality waiver
pickup and you know, obviously totally paid off.
He paid off his draft costs already.
He gave you one. Yeah, you know, like.
There you go. I don't.
Yeah I I I feel like we we we've talked about just everybody here
that we wanted to was there anybody else.
I guess the Jamal Williams stuff that's that's a role that's a
role that's there for the taken. So if Kendra Miller's on your
waivers that's a that's a shot I'm taking you know you got you
got two good chances before Kamara comes back and I'm I
think Kamara is closer to going the way of Dalvin Cook than you
know being his old self. So who who knows maybe Kendra
has a good path even once Kamara gets back if the competition's
not too terribly stiff but man Jamal Williams got a good amount
of work and did absolutely nothing with it.
So it's it's wide open and it's a there's work there to be had.
So that that was one. I mean if you look at the it's
right there with James Conner like woo that's a lot of usage.
So if Kendra could come in and take that as a 21 year old
running back who we like the profile, that could be exciting.
Jamal Williams chart disguised as a Kendrick chart?
Yes, yeah, absolutely. All right, and so now we go to
the sort of backups, the quote UN quote backups.
Running backs. So I mean Tajay Spears we we we
did touch on him at JK Dobbins and yeah he he got hurt and then
Jerome forward is I I think he's interesting here and where I I I
one thing that I've sort of observed of the Browns.
Is that no matter who they have at running back they always want
to have some kind of committee and like it doesn't really
matter if you know who The Who the running backs name is.
Who's going to be the Orb Two that like the Orb two is going
to have some kind of role. It's never going to be in 8020
or at least it it's very rarely been for this coaching staff and
so I think. He's he's definitely, he's
definitely a little interesting there as a pretty good I mean
how many he'll be available in home leagues probably not too
many high stakes sort of like deeper leagues and but
definitely that feels like a pretty pretty decent and pretty
decent value there. If you got him, probably not
playing him in DFS and can't imagine he's available on too
many wires like I said. But interesting, I think he is
an interesting play for getting, for filling, sort of filling it
like an or B2 spot where you're just sort of getting points.
He did, he did get a lot of mop up duty after the game was out
of hand. I think 11 of his 50 degrees
came after the game was totally done.
I think it was like in the fourth quarter but you're.
I agree with you though that he's he is the clear RB 2, right
he's he's the only running back that took any snaps on offense
other than Nick Chubb. Pierre Strong played special
teams so Jerome Ford's the RB 2. Don't worry about Pierre Strong
and so he's definitely the handcuff in the event that
anything were to happen to Chubb.
He misses anytime, right. And he's he's fine.
You know there there might just like I I think it's probably
gonna be a lot closer to how Kareem Hunt was last season
where there's almost no week where you actually feel good if
you do choose to start him. But there's like 2 weeks where
he he pays off or he's he's fine.
You know it's a standalone value.
But yeah it's definitely, it's a stash.
It's a bench stash for sure. And redraft a good handcuff
option? Definitely.
I mean, very, very clear signal that he's the RB 2 on that team.
That that's that's definitely yeah that's definitely fair and
So what else stands out I I think it's interesting that you
see a couple of bears at running backs here obviously you had a
you had Roshan and he had a lot he he he had a lot of high
efficiency so he actually delivered quite a good week and
but. I think it it it it is at least
interesting that you have this pretty clear Treeway split like
where you have Actually, no, I I I just miss Herbert there.
Herbert, Roshan and Danta there all in the in the backup running
back chart. And it it it does feel like you
you you need someone to either separate or someone to get
injured The the a lot of the Roshan work came kind of in
garbage time. So I think with the garbage.
Time stuff. Again, it would have games.
It's that's that, you know, quantitative and qualitative
flavors. You know, we gotta gotta get a
little bit of both, you know, two scoops.
But I I do think that you're likely looking at Khalil Herbert
and Donta Foreman, at least early in the season.
It's not like I I think Roshan could absolutely carve out more
of a role as we go on. He looked fine to me.
I mean, I don't know Ball, but he looked fine.
So you think that in more neutral scripts or what you're
saying is in more neutral scripts, it's Herbert and then
Danta, Yeah. Yes.
Yeah, that's it. I think that's interesting and
makes sense for sure. I I don't think Rochon gets no
snaps in neutral scripts but I think you know quite quite a bit
of his work came in garbage time got it and in a week two if if a
different you know if it plays out differently if Rochon's on
the field more it maybe maybe it just was hey when we're when
we're really needed to pass a lot we like Rochon as our
passing down back the most that I mean you you can kind of see
look at his pass blocking like I think that's that does tell a
little bit of the story as well like he is the guy they prefer
to use in that long down right potentially so.
And so I know with the range that Herbert sort of crept up to
late in the season that he might he might have been if if a team
got, if a drafter team got an injury or something like that,
that he'd he'd sort of have would have been in consideration
for. Starting as running back to and
I mean that this is the sort of thing that would make me say oh
OK you know actually unless things get really sort of dire
at running back I I'm not feeling good about starting yet
Khalil Herbert right now. No, I wouldn't I wouldn't be
super excited to plug him in not not with much confidence right
now. You know, I, I it's almost like,
am I? It's still Herbert for me.
But what I do Hubbard or Herbert here, you know?
Right And yeah and I think I think that is an interesting
different or or or comparison point where yeah I I do feel, I
do feel like and and unless I'm, I'm completely missing somebody
and you have a a little bit more there with with Shuba.
With the fact that it's it's a bit more of a sort of like 2
back split and and so it only has one back to compete with to
to to increase his his his snapshare and and what you call
I think the Panthers will are probably pretty likely to throw
a good deal more so maybe have more pass attempts So that one
that one does feel like. Definitely slide edge to Trueba
to me. Yeah, I I I think they're close,
but you know it it's it's pretty interesting where after we get
one, you know one week's worth of data, a lot of stuff
especially in those later rounds like yeah the the prices that we
had been paying for guys like it starts to become clear.
You know hey we had we had the wrong read here.
We had too much confidence here or there and that's right.
I mean that's just why, you know, picks after a certain
point aren't worth anywhere near as much as our early picks, cuz
the degree of confidence we can have is so much lower so.
And right, I agree there. And I think what you're alluding
to there is that Shuba went a good bit after Herbert.
So it is interesting that they're at least close, yeah.
And. Is there anybody else here that
you want to talk about before we they'll show up on?
We do have two more running back charts.
I was gonna say they'll show up on the next chart, so I'll save
it for there. Yeah, good call.
So here we have our Rep So this is our expected fantasy points
and efficiency. So on the kind of bottom and
horizontal actions here we have rushing expected points.
And then on the on the to the left here we have our receiving
expected points and you see these lines that go across.
So this line here represents a total expected points of 15
expected points. And so you have Bijan here who's
sort of like eightish and seven. That's how he gets to 15 and and
and then also the size of the bubble.
Is there points over expected, so bigger the bubble you see CMC
here and a lot of points over expected and then you have let's
see Joe and Warren which definitely disappointing for the
for us so far is that is low and low points over expected.
I mean you can, you can look at the hallmark low points over
expected guys, Jamal Williams, Alexander Madison.
So those are very uninspiring. I mean obviously McCaffrey
stands out huge. You can see Josh Kelly, Josh
Kelly ran hot on get a TD there, but he looked good.
And yeah, if Eckler would have missed any time, that's a very,
very exciting potential ad there.
Some of the other ones that stood out for me, you've got Gus
Edwards way down there and that's that's because Gus is
getting the low calorie stuff man.
That's that's the guy where a between the 20s we want to run
someone's face directly into a £300 man a couple times just
establish it that's that's the Gus job.
So he's absolute zero in the passing game, right.
Like he's not gonna be involved there.
And and that is a wrinkle that I, you know we we saw a little
bit in Week 1 how many targets did Dobbin's.
It was Dobbin's 3 targets before he got injured.
Like that's a lot for for what Dobbin right, had put up in his
career. So I think it's pretty clear
signal that this offense wants to involve the running backs in
the passing game more and they're doing more stuff at and
around the line of scrimmage as well just in the way that they
manufactured touches for his day.
Flowers. But yeah, Edwards is 1 where I
wanted to point that out because we'll see his backfield mate on
the next chart. By the way, the way these charts
are divvied up because we're gonna have two charts that are
both the running back expected fantasy points and efficiency
chart. There's too many backs to
display on one chart, it just gets too noisy.
So it's literally just a split between odd even on the guys in
the rankings on the fantasy points over expected.
So we're just oscillating that way.
One chart doesn't get all the all the scrubs and one gets all
the stars and they get all clumped together.
And explain Sorry. And what did you say is the
difference between this and the next one?
Yeah, they're just they're just ranked by fantasy points over
expected in a list. And then I just.
Alternate so the first chart is the even chart, the next one's
the odd chart, so that way you get good and bad running backs
on both. Charts.
OK, Gotcha. Gotcha.
One chart or something? Makes makes sense.
Makes sense, so that's. Just for anybody who used to the
way it was done last year, last year was AFC and NFC and this
year it's sort of a random sampling in boat.
And just just because like like Sack said you, you need to be
able to see some of the details here.
Yeah, I got a little too clumped with the divisions.
So I wanted to do it this way, spread it out a little bit.
Oh yeah. Yeah.
No, I think. I think that makes a lot of
sense. A guy that I I mean this
shouldn't be a just state secret or anything but like Jamir Gibbs
could with with only what was it 26% snaps or something like that
like that's a that role is gonna increase you know and I mean my
goodness he's he's one you know trip over his own shoestring
away from scoring a touchdown in that game and putting me in solo
first place on the showdown. We're not gonna dwell on it.
No I think Gibbs is 1 where we definitely are gonna see him
ascend. Montgomery got like an
inordinate amount of the high value touches that game, right?
And I just don't, I do not think that the running back they
drafted with early first round capital, who is specifically a
passing game specialist, is going to see passing game work
to David Montgomery at the rate that he did in week one.
I think that was purely like that's the Lions.
The Lions do a lot of stuff like, you know, the good
oldfashioned boomer organization like they're they're not not the
same as as some of the more boomer organizations, but they
definitely have that. You know, rookies are going to
earn their keep, I guess. Unless your name is Sam Laporta,
my goodness, We'll talk about him when we get to tight ends.
But yeah, I think, I think Gibbs is mostly a function of like,
we're gonna gonna get you some reps here, but we're not gonna
overload you early. But I I can see that.
Increase easing you into your at your first week in the NFL
absolutely and so and question then would you and did game one
and and what we're seeing here does that push you up or down on
where we're drafting at Gibbs in in best Paul season.
For me it it it had already, the price had already started to get
a tiny bit frothy on underdog in half VPR, just like him creeping
into the late third round. I didn't think was correct
there, like he shouldn't have been going ahead of ETN, you
know? Yeah, that that was one where I
was pretty constantly. And to return in FFBC as well,
which yeah that that was also frothy but like on DraftKings
where he would go at and and he did he crept up on DraftKings to
the end of the season too. But he was he was like a
consistently into the third round or beginning of the 4th on
DraftKings for a while in full PPR.
And that's one where I was. I was packing the bags.
So I don't my my take on him, my my like assessment of where he
fits in the market hasn't really changed.
I think he's really good. I think you know the the
downsides to him are it's going to be the same stuff that we saw
with Swift, like the fantasy community's going to be
frustrated he's not getting more work.
He'll get plenty more than he got in week one.
Yeah, he's just too good of a player for them to deny it that.
I mean, how many tackles did he He broke like 7 tackles or
something? Like it was an absurd number.
He's so good if you if you didn't watch the game, go, go
back and just watch. The You didn't watch the Week
One NFL? Then the the opening day game.
What What are you doing with those nerds?
Yeah, that's that's true. Yeah, I I bet the number of
people that are listening to this show and miss the game, I
don't think. I think another thing that's
interesting about Gibbs and on resurrection is that correct me
if I'm wrong here, but resurrection starts week 6 and
so it if and if and when it opens.
Hopefully this week, maybe next week if and when it opens.
And if if there's any kind of discount on on Gibbs because he
started off so anemic and it might actually be the cheapest
that you get Gibbs available because it'll draft up until
that until it closes before Week 6.
And hopefully, maybe, maybe I'm just wrong here in line with
your what you're saying, it sort of creeps up as the week goes
on. So, so by the time you get what
what you're actually getting is week 6 through 17 that Gibbs
which could be a whole lot which should be a whole lot better
than that weeks one through five.
Yeah, very, very well put. I I would say that if if you
give me Jamir Gibbs like in the mid to late 4th I will have 100%
Jamir Gibbs like I I will literally have 100% if he's
going there. You know I I think into into the
third, beginning of the 4th is probably right about right for
him just cuz the we'll get a little more clarity.
That wide receiver tier was so, so flat during the summer.
Now I think we'll get that big giant tier broken into a couple
smaller tiers now that like bye bye Christian Kirk.
Like that was unfortunate that I drafted some Christian Kirk in
the fifth round. Like that one's gone.
He's out of that tier, right and.
Sometimes you need pod picks, and it's trying to move on.
Yeah, Brain and I, you can get steamed up.
But those tiers will crystallize.
They'll be a lot more clear. And so I think Gibbs is gonna,
depending on how those wide receivers land, he's either
going to be right before like the next tier of wide receiver
after that third round group. I think like DK Metcalf still
probably goes in the third round there, like into the third round
and Keenan Allen is still probably around there, right?
But in that chunk of guys, I think Gib goes right after that.
And then depending on the quality of the receivers that
make it into that next tier, he's either right after that
very next tier receiver or he's before that one.
That's kind of my read on it. And if the market disagrees with
me and puts him later, I'll see y'all in week 17 with 100%.
Gib Yeah, I couldn't agree more. And so.
I know we're we're an hour in and we're on that chart 4 and
before but before I move on is there anybody here who think we
can't that we just we'd be criminal to to go without
talking about gosh, I mean Kenneth Walker was that was one
where I saw that and I felt like okay like he was priced
relatively reasonably. I think what you're paying for
with Kenneth Walker has always been the breakaway touchdowns,
right? Yeah.
Kenneth Walker is like diet ETN. That's a zero in the passing
game. Yeah, right.
So that's kind of the way that I look at him.
But yeah, he's one where I was more encouraged than discouraged
by Week 1. Charbonnay just didn't work in a
ton. And that'll that'll change as
the season goes on. I'm sure.
I'm sure Charbonnay will get more run.
I know DJ Dallas got some snaps. I don't know how sticky that is.
I kind of, I tend to think that it's going to trend more towards
just the Kenneth Walker and Charbonnay show.
I think DJ Dallas might have been eating Charbonnay snaps
more than anything. Event, you know eventually how
it'll shake out. But that was one where, yeah, I
felt like Kenneth Walker was. Was appropriately priced.
Yeah, make that makes sense for sure.
Where it's what you call it. He's in that 9:50 to 15 range
and but with some efficiency you can get some big time games.
And so yeah let's let's move oh let's move on to our our odds
charts and yeah so so looking at it here and the the big
temptations would be to like oh wow taller algier belt cow.
But I I I don't I don't I don't think that's necessarily right
and. I think he's he's sort of
interesting as an airy season play and but I guess he did play
quite well and but it is it's sort of hard to see him like
truly holding off a talent like like Bijon for a full year.
Yeah, I think that Tyler Algier is going to do to Bijon not in
the same way, but not not to the same magnitude rather, but he
he's gonna be a Thorn and Bijon side, the same way that David
Montgomery is gonna be a Thorn and Gibbs side.
That team wants to use both those running backs and they
will both get an absurd amount of work if week one told us
anything and if last season told us anything.
So for people that drafted Tyler Algier when he was in like the
one 50s and one 60s congratulations that was way
inefficient of a price. He he's he's going to continue
to get work regardless of how good Bijon is.
He might do or or Bijon might do to Algeer what Algeer did to
Huntley last season where you know over the course of the
season we're going to see Bijon carve out more and more work.
But I think Algeer, I mean especially at the the early
stretch of the season he's he's very attractive he's I I would I
would consider algae or like an RV to lock it in pretty much
every week just the way that offense wants to operate.
OK, so so you think it's just gonna, it's sort of like stay
pretty much in touch with the way that the way that the
offense used both players is gonna stay pretty much in touch
and throughout the year it's going to trend towards Bijon
certainly. But like if you look at how many
opportunities they both got, it's a plenty of opportunity.
You know, I think you're looking at both of them being locked in
for 15 opportunities a week and they're both Alger got a lot of
passing game work too. They're both involved in the
passing game. Can you imagine?
I need you to close your eyes and I want you to imagine Arthur
Smith being OK with them running a pass play inside the five yard
line. Like, does that ever happen?
Does this team score a passing touchdown in the Green Zone?
Like, yeah, they're, they're. Across the green ball, yeah, I
I, yeah, I I sort of see that where it's an offense that's
like so it's so rich for running backs that him just having a
share, it is quite valuable. But yeah I I guess you were
never you were never you were never having to pay pay a bell
cow price and I don't know you're never going to get like
you're never going to get somebody in in trade or whatever
or or maybe you will but probably a hard ask to get
somebody to pay like a high a high player return in a trade
and. Where where would you draft him
in in resurrection? Like he's like a solid, you
know, into the night. Like is it 9th?
Gosh, it might. It might be.
It's gotta be higher than that, I was thinking.
Like I was gonna say 9th. That feels a bit warm and you
just disagreed with me. I know.
Maybe. Gosh, maybe it's like is it like
late 7th, early 8th? I don't know.
I I just. Let me ask you this.
It is an. Is toddler Alger in the 7th is
is that a is that a dead zone pick or is that something where
no no he he if you get him seven or eight no you're you're really
happy with that pick. I I mean not to to make the same
comparison again but I really I look at it like I looked at
David I was happily clicking David Montgomery his price right
all offseason I that's behind a really good offensive line they
want to run the ball and you know we saw last season Jamal
Williams ran hotter than the sun on touchdowns but like right
that often can score rushing touchdowns and they are happy to
give work to their running backs and it's the same thing in
Atlanta they have a good running game they they want to give work
to the running backs so I think you can I I think the algier to
Montgomery comparison is is pretty good and pretty close to
how I would view over their prices.
And and to be fair, taller Algiers probably compares
better. He's younger and I'm pretty
sure, I know he was an old rookie, but he is a second year
player and he played, he played well, whereas Monty played not
well. And so maybe, yeah, maybe David
Montgomery plus is like a good way to well, I know that's what
we're saying. Maybe.
Monthly Plus is a good way to
look at them, yeah. Another one I wanted to bring up
here is Josh Jacobs. I mean, from Week 1 Elite usage,
you know, they they're putting the ball in his belly.
But he did turn back into a pumpkin a little bit on the
efficiency front last season. He was just otherworldly.
I mean he wanted that bag but and I don't know if this, you
know, could just be weak one small sample size.
I don't know if the trend holds, but I'm like, I'm like slightly
concerned that Josh Jacobs is just gonna be like absolute crap
ton of volume, not terribly efficient.
He didn't have a a ton ton of expected points in the receiving
game. You know like he you see ETN
with more expected yeah receiving points than him you
see you know he's he's like right about in line with AJ
Dillon so slightly, slightly concerned about Jacobs.
I mean, he's still, he's gonna get so much work that it's
probably fine, though. Yeah and and that one way that I
like to look at the the the over expected and is I like to try to
like break the into yardage and touchdowns and obviously you
have to be very careful with splits.
Because we're dealing with very small sample sizes and but one
thing that does seem pretty notable is that of his like I
think he was like -11 or so and in in expected points and 9.4 of
those was in touchdowns, was in getting a goal line touch
touches and not scoring and that does feel like something that
might be. And a week one thing where if
you think if you think the Raiders offense is is better
than than the market was giving credit for.
And I I I think we've gotten an indication that it is and that
they will be making trips to the to goal line and that they're
going to continue to feed them there.
And I think maybe I I think there is a case that his.
His I guess rest of season points outlook is bad is maybe a
good bit better than what his weak one stats look like.
But, and having said that, I probably wouldn't be too far
away from you in terms of pricing him and I probably I I
probably still need a decent discount to his his best ball
season at a DP. To to be drafting him.
I'm John Jacobs. Yeah, Josh Jacobs or Sakewon
Barkley. Oh, Josh Jacobs.
I'm sorry, OK. And sorry I I I I did the thing
where I said to you at Oh yeah let's make sure we we use some
names and when we're talking to players and then I just talked
about I just said him and so yeah Josh Jacobs and at.
Lots of go line touches did not convert them and that's usually
volatile and even though I I'm, I'm, I'm I'm not drafting him
and but if I were somebody who was quite bullish and I'm going
into the season and maybe that doesn't push me quite off that
that opinion. Oh I'm I'm sorry.
I should have been more clear with my question.
I was saying, who do you prefer, Josh Jacobs or sake?
And oh, OK, OK. And who do I prepare and or
you're gonna have to give me a second.
And so, honestly, probably Jacobs.
I think it's close. I mean the only like modicum of
success the Giants showed against the Cowboys was those
early runs where you know they were able to get a little bit of
of Barkley up the middle going for them the anything outside
was not great but they looked like they they could at least
you know get some yards created up the middle with their run
blocking. So I'm but yeah I felt like that
was a those guys are probably I think they're in the same tier
would you consider them same tier?
Yeah, yeah, they are. They are, and yeah, I I think
they are. They're definitely in the same
tier and then the only thing I would say is like and and maybe
maybe it was was the sake one have the thing where he he came
off the field just because they were getting smashed so much.
Yeah, yeah. At the end of the game, we had
Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones still had to stay
in there and get his turds pushing his stay.
Quan got to go get nice and cozy on the bench and put his park on
and get out of the rain. I just can't, dude.
Daniel Jones did something to upset that coaching staff.
He kicked someone's dog or slept well.
They were like, you know what? We're paying you all this many
$1,000,000. You are just gonna take this
punishment and like it. He took a lot of it, man, that
was that was gratuitous. So.
Maybe I'm just, I'm trying to think maybe Saquon probably is 1
where it's a little bit harder to really gauge where where he's
supposed to go and just because we didn't have a proper game
script and but. Yeah, maybe I'm flip flopping a
bit here and just cuz I'm I'm trying to think through it.
But maybe the the kind of indication that we got that he
he definitely still has some juice.
And if they consider if they if they will continue, if they
continue to like give him the the sort of usage that he got
last year with maybe, yeah, maybe better receiving then
absolutely he's better than that Jacob's.
But I do think we definitely sort of got more weak one
bullish signals with the usage and the goal line work from
Jacobs than SEC one. I do wanna.
Before we move on, I wanted to bring up one more back here.
Yeah so. So we've got James Connor and
Rashad White. Two guys that were drafted
really close together all off season.
They both landed at 10 to 15 expected fantasy points Band
here and I know you've you've got some thoughts on Rashad
White's backfield mate that I wanted to let you expand on here
a little bit. I pretty, yeah, pretty
straightforward. And I think that Rashad White.
Has now given us a a a decent he he gave us a a season one sample
size or sample that he's pretty bad and he played really bad in
in week one and then I I I I like like you alluded to I do
like Sean Tucker quite a bit and so the fact that he played
fairly well and then. White played pearly that that
that does make me pretty interested and and in terms of
like where I'd price it and I think one of the thing one of
the concerns going into the year was that Oh well what if they
only see Tucker as a rushing guy and they're bad the the offense
is bad and and. Like you, you just don't want to
rush her in that type of environment.
I think the Tampa Bay offense was like good enough for that
type of back to be quite a good bit interesting.
And if I mean it's one of those things like when, when, when
does the flip has to flip eventually or sorry, you feel
like it has to flip eventually but it's hard to predict when.
And so I think I I'm, I'm probably quite comfortable
taking Tucker maybe and this is probably pretty aggressive maybe
12 through 14 round now I was. I was right there with with you
in the 12th round, so I don't think that's too aggressive at
all. OK, he's let's just let's
hypothetically say he just takes Rashad Weis's lunch.
He. That's he he's yeah, that's he's
the captain. He's the captain now.
He he gets the same opportunity he's not fallen in this 10 to 15
expected fantasy point band. The only reason Rashad White you
know fell here was he he couldn't do anything with it.
You know like Sean Sean Tucker could easily be.
I think your your bowl case for Sean Tucker is he he starts to
break into that 15 to 20 expected fantasy point band and
so that's a guy where I want to take a shot on and then.
I know we're we're just spending all the time in the world on
every chart but there is one guy I mean yeah he was the thumbnail
on the show. We got to talk about Justice
Hill with JK Dobbins being injured.
I already spent some time shitting on Gus Edwards
inefficiency or or I guess inefficiency of or efficiency in
the past he but no longer you know is this 28 going on 29 year
old plotter going to be the guy that you want.
In this backfield where they want to involve backs in the
passing game. So I mean, if you've seen me
talk about Justice Hill at all this offseason, you know that
I'm the captain of the Justice Hill fan club.
But a big part of the thesis was he's the he was literally the
only guy at OTA's that was going to make the 53 man roster
getting stabs. And if if you believe the beat
reporters, they were saying that Todd Milken loves him.
He wants to. Having to be super involved in
the passing game, you know, it's a player that they really like.
And then you Fast forward and you get to training camp and
he's still one of the only guys that's actually out there
getting reps You know, Dobbins was doing the olden thing.
Gus Edwards wasn't totally healthy.
It's the Justice Hill Show. And Justice Hill, he doesn't
profile as the kind of guy that can get a bell cow workload, nor
nor do I even think it's not in the range of outcomes for him to
get all the work. But you don't need that with a
play like this. I always saw Justice Hill Thesis
as the same Jared McKinnon thesis that I had this season
prior, which was this guy's going undrafted in the 18th
round. He is, you know, in a semi
ambiguous backfield for the Ravens.
I didn't think it was terribly ambiguous as JK Dobbins is a
dude, but the RV2 was ambiguous. I think the offense has a chance
to be the offense that scores the most touchdowns in the NFL.
They want to involve their backs in the passing game and this guy
could get a lot of high value touches and that's that's the
thesis. He's he's like 190 pounds.
He's not, he's not some world beater or anything, right?
But he is. It's interesting they not go on
touches, right? Yeah, he got go back though.
You feel comfortable about getting receiving usage and then
when with Dobbins was down, he was the first one in on the goal
line. Yep.
And he got two goal line touches.
It was and and it's not like you know they've forgot about Gus.
They brought Gus Edwards in for a, you know, two point
conversion and then it was like alright, but when it's time for
the real money let's get just fill the field for the TV's and
in the preseason we saw him deliver splash plays like he's
explosive. He's fat.
I'm just. I'm all in Justice Hill man.
That like that's a that's a league winner for me.
Go go put all the money in the middle on him and waivers.
That's that's the 1:00 you want this week.
So am I right in surmising that he's sort of like a yeah you're
he's sort of like an echo or like like that's that's what
you're shooting for? Well, that would that would be
like his his best. Yeah.
Yeah, that's probably best, best outcome, but like even £190.00
but you still get outcomes where he's heavily involved in the
passing game and he's quite involved in the goal line.
I look at it as, what would you pay to get that six game stretch
that we got from Jared McKinnon at the end of last season?
What would you pay for that and and we don't.
You know maybe maybe Justice Hill manages to string it
together for longer. Maybe he does only get right
like a six game stretch because he can't hold up.
He's only 190 pounds. He's had injury issues in the
past. Maybe they bring in another bag,
train for JT, whatever. But what would you pay for that
six game stretch where he's dropping multiple 30 point games
and and it's on the back of touchdowns.
It's not that Jarek McKinnon was out here racking up all these
yards. It's dude, dude just got a
couple touchdowns because offense is good and they throw
the ball, you know. Yeah makes sense for sure.
And and like you said, we couldn't we couldn't do that.
We couldn't do this without mentioning the cover boy.
So let's move on to tight ends. I'm going to change the zoom on
this a little bit. And So what we've got here is
we've got sort of like the percentage of passing place that
a tight end is on the field and then we've got that sort of
broken up into roots which is what we care about and then pass
blocking. So you can kind of see if a guy
is on the field a lot he just pass blocking for a lot of it.
And so that's where you get, let's say K Dotten his, he is on
the field for almost 100% of the of the Tampa Bay Bucks and
passing downs. But because he's passed blocking
for quite a bit of it that brings his password down to just
over 70%. And then what we have here on
the left, if you're tracking over here, we have a targets per
route run and a dot and it's sort of what we're trying to do
is trying to find out who's billed as a tight end but closer
to a receiver. And so you see K dot in here
really low target per outrun and then pretty kind of tight endish
a .2. And that's not the shit on Kate
or anybody who took Kate. I think that's kind of the
outcome that you're sort of like you were expecting that outcome
when you when you dropped Kate on, you're getting him super
late and you knew he he wasn't kind of like he's not Travis
Kelsey or anything and you're hoping for a week where he
scores a touchdown, but just kind of a a way that we look at
this data. Whereas on the other hand it's
actually quite difficult to find a tight end who looks like a
tight end this week. But let's say you've got a TJ
Hawkinson here. He had similar and it's similar
routes run but his at his routes were a lot more important he he
got doubled and double over double the target for run and
and then you can kind of this chart does tell the story of a
struggle week for for tight ends a little bit cuz like normally
what you're looking for you're looking for a guy who's maybe 75
and 90 in root share 20 some in the range of 20 for target for
outrun and then like a wide receiver ish 8 to 12A dot and
we're not seeing that here and but definitely some good good
still good takeaways for the chart.
Can I can I interest you in some Luke Musgrave?
At 17% targets per route run just about 80% routes and an 18
a dot and for sure definitely I think you you run that is
definitely really interesting. So you probably you're probably
not going to be able to sustain the 18 yard 18A dot.
But combined with a 7 percent, 17% target for right run and and
you've got the, you've got the high, high root share, you feel
pretty good about that tight end roll, right?
Yeah, you know, some of the ones that stood out to me, as, you
know, I I'm full on hitting the panic button for these guys.
It's Dalton Schultz. I'm pretty sure that's just like
not a playable tight end. You know, Dalton Schultz is the
same thing as like, ohh, gosh, what's the what's the name of
the blocking tight end for Minnesota that signed that big
old contract. Yeah, but Dalton Schultz out
here just running cardio like 8%, right?
Targets were outrun. No a dot like woof.
Some that I also saw where I was like a little concerned.
I'm not like full on alarm for is.
David and Joe Ku did a fair amount of pass blocking, didn't
run a ton of routes low a dot. I mean it was a monsoon game so
I don't really care that much. The other Isaiah likely was a
little disappointing, everyone. Isaiah likely.
Very disappointing, I thought. I think we saw enough last
season from him to know that he's good though, so I'm not.
I think. I think I'm more willing to
write this off as like as a bad game.
It also like if if we're thinking this might be more
signal, it could just be like, hey, they now have target
earners here. Like Zay Flowers is here and
he's gonna earn targets and Bateman is healthy.
And even though Bateman didn't run a full compliment around,
you know he he wasn't on the field.
The Ton. He still earned targets and so
that might be you know if if Andrews misses time maybe likely
doesn't see that same significant increase in value
that he's not lasting. That does seem the question like
cuz like I know people in their head they had like mental
heuristic Andrews goes down as I likely basically Andrews and and
and just run with it and so I wouldn't you say it it's fair to
say that that idea is is it. It feels like either that idea
was was not correct or Mark Andrews is in trouble because of
the of the issues pushing it likely down.
There, I'm not ready to say Mark Andrews is in trouble, because I
no, I'm not either. I do think that he's you know he
is just a better talent than Isaiah.
Isaiah like he's exciting talent but like he's not Mark Andrews.
So I'm I I'm more willing to just call this a a bad game
maybe a little fluky but I'm definitely I'm filing it away in
my mental filing cabinet of if Mark Andrews misses time I'm
gonna have a lot lower confidence in like right than I
would have previously of like it's a smash right.
How I how I think about it. Speaking of guys that are
smashes, we said there weren't a ton that kind of checked our
boxes. Can I interest you in some Logan
Thomas like 23% targets per route run?
Not a super exciting a dot, but he was involved that.
I'm just hoping that maybe that was like a little hiccup for
Washington. Maybe Sam Howe can can string it
together. The enemy can get some stuff
figured out for that offense, and they can get humming as the
season moves along and how it gets more real.
Live reps in the NFL because Dude's played two games now,
right? So you know, we can just kind of
treat. It's not like, it's not like Sam
Howe was sitting behind some great quarterback learning last
season. You know, like not to crap all
over Taylor Heineke. But it's not like he had all
this time to develop behind one of the greatest minds in the
game. You know, I I think it's fair to
expect that Hal might be a little raw, and I think Logan
Thomas is certainly interesting. I mean the tight landscapes of
Wasteland. So anyone getting over 20%
targets per route run and being involved in the offense is 1
where I'm gonna be at least a little interested.
Yeah, I agree. I agree.
And definitely. Yeah, definitely.
So I I think maybe you disagree, but he solidifies himself as a
kind of a late at tight end at Target and.
I mean, I I don't disagree because I think I'm sitting here
with like 15% Logan Thomas. So and the question would be in,
in, in resurrection stuff and does this meaningfully change
like maybe I'm thinking maybe this changes them from like like
maybe not, maybe not draftable to probably, probably good in
the 15th? I I think the only reason he
wasn't getting drafted was the injury concerns I think right
people wanted people wanted that role potentially right there is
I never really bought into the the enemies tight end.
It's gonna it's the Travis Kelsey roles.
No it's not the Travis Travis Kelsey is the reason that
there's the Travis Kelsey role right.
You know, like, it's not. It's not that whatever tight end
plays in this offense is just a skeleton key.
Like, he's gonna smash. But I do think he's interesting.
I I think Logan Thomas is interesting for sure.
I mean, yeah, it's definitely one where he should be drafted.
It's just don't there's the injury risk, you know.
So he hasn't hasn't stayed healthy for a long time, right?
So, so then it sounds like maybe you're are you drafting him
earlier then then? I take him a little earlier.
He, he I'm comfortable. Where would he?
Where would he become the target for you?
It's it's on howl teams that he's at Target.
I'm probably not taking him naked a ton, You know not.
It but like the late rounds don't matter.
The ADP doesn't matter. You know we're we're not good.
The market's so bad pricing, so for sure who cares?
1415161718 solid. It's the same.
I'll take them anywhere in there where it just depends on my
roster construction what I need. If I need 3 late tight ends and
I'm like okay, I really wanna make sure that I get Logan
Thomas and I wanna make sure that I'm grabbing Adam Troutman,
cuz I'm a masochist. Then sure, I'll click them
wherever I need to in the right, but and you you're taking,
you're you're taking him at a spot where it's kind of like
low, low opportunity cost. Yeah, yeah, I'm not.
He's certainly not like moving up.
He's not creeping up into like the right or something for me
and so I I guess the the 100 prior that we have to talk about
is that Durance might where literally 100% of past plays and
it was checking before it wasn't like there was some weird injury
that he was the only healthy tight end there like no that
that's his role he and maybe he's not 100% all year and but
pretty like this is this is like in terms of like snaps and roots
this is like pretty much elite and yeah 14% target per outrun
is like a mediocre and tight end I think but at elite snaps it's
like holy like if that if that if that holds he's basically the
late tight end of the season. Like we we should have we should
have been drafting Durham's life everybody and and it it becomes
for me a type of player like that becomes quite challenging
because if that just holds then he's probably like I don't know
like honestly a pretty strong like 12th 11 tenth round target
which that feels that feels aggressive but like I'm like
just from the mats of it if that holds and and like I don't see I
don't see a compelling reason to think that it doesn't hold like.
I and yeah, go ahead. I'd say as far as like his
price, I don't have high conviction in the market's
ability to price all of the tight ends efficiently.
So if they priced Smythe efficiently, there's other guys
that are priced inefficiently and I just, I won't take Smythe
in. So you know the reason I'm I
like I like to talk about these players in terms of like ADP and
stuff like that just because it for me and this is I guess for
everyone as well for me if it feels like a way where it forces
me to be honest it forces me to compare players it forces me to
like really like get in the gut of like okay I'm I'm forced into
a decision what what do I do. And and it sounds like you're in
in terms of during flight and you're like okay that feels like
it might be efficient to a tad aggressive and it'll be easy for
me to ignore that and then if he's if he's much later than
that then smashing you all day long.
Yeah. And I I I completely agree with
that and I I think that that's that's the way I I I would play
it as well and but I'm just I'm just trying to come up with like
a yeah a way where I'm forced, I'm forced to put a number I'm
forced to put something objective on a player.
Yeah, I know. That's a that's a good point.
And yeah, so hypothetically if he was going in, in the 12th
round and without knowledge of assuming the market gets
everyone efficient, right, right.
And then I probably am taking some shots on him in the 12th
and I'm certainly gonna be more prone to do it with Tua.
I really want that tied into quarterback correlation.
I think it's super valuable. Yeah, just especially with
Smythe where. What is such a large percentage
of his fantasy points this season are going to come from
touchdowns. Yeah.
So I just, I just want those correlated with my quarterback.
So like in DFS, if I'm ever playing Durham Smythe, I'm never
playing Durham Smythe without Tua, right?
Like, yeah yeah. And and in best fall like I'm
probably not drafting a ton of Durham Smythe without Tua.
But if he's like falling past ADP and taking him and and yeah,
if he's going in the 12th. That's probably efficient
because we end up with a lot of the gross guys that were more
ambiguous in in the 12th round, like Dalton Schultz ain't going
on the 12th anymore. You know, like, no, that's
that's gone. Another one I wanted to bring
up, I I could sit here and talk about Durham Smith all day.
What do we do with Zach Hurts, man?
What do we do about Zach Hurts? And it sort of feels like who
who I wanted and and what's his name?
Who's the other try to enter the Cardinals?
Oh my gosh. Trey McBride, thank you.
Thank you. It feels like no thank you.
It feels like who we wanted Trey McBride to be.
And again it feels it feels similar to to what's his name
Logan Thomas where it's like this older guy but elite role
like completely elite role and and so hard to ignore.
Again, if I think he's similar in that like where if you find
yourself like just needing a late guy and it's like he's
gonna be a target in teams where you need late tight ends and but
don't want to pay middle round prices.
Yeah my my biggest. So like weekly like Zacherts
could be a great DFS but I haven't seen the prices on on
earth. But like he's he's the kind of
guy where in a in a single week that could absolutely be a great
you know tight end punt. Especially if he's cheap.
But for for like a resurrection tournament, ohh my goodness am I
really gonna bet on Zachert's maintaining this role all the
way through the season like that?
Seems very thin to me. And so.
I guess if you're taking it as an advanced rate play like you
could Stoneman on there, Drop Kings.
And it's who are Cardinals at next week?
And let me tell you just now, Arizona are home to the joints.
Don't Don't do me Bros. It's it's Zach.
Or it's 100% of the tight end slot DK this week, locking it in
and so actually, not Stoneman. I'm an idiot.
He's 3500. OK.
All right, that that was. Sorry, dumb.
And Stoneman would have had me got me bricked up there for some
Stoneman Zachary. It's at 32% targets per route
run and and then Logan Thomas, he's 3100 a way to Denver.
OK. And and so I guess and given
given the comparison if it it does feel like you're stronger
on on Thomas than than Eric's is is that just the offense and and
and that you expect to be better.
Despite Thomas also being old, he's not as old as Zach Erdz and
he's also a better athlete that he he has always been a better
athlete than Zach Erdz and so if I'm assuming both these guys are
healthy. I think Thomas could deliver me
a splash play. You know, I don't think there's
there's not a universe where Zachary's gets a breakaway
touchdown. You know he's never gonna.
Never gonna house one from you know he could get some end zone
targets but he's not you know breaking away from right He was
not working Fall down catching him fall down and I I mean maybe
I'm maybe I'm I'm being mean here I think they're like only
six months apart in age. Are they really?
Oh my God. Wow.
I I guess Logan Thomas just spent a lot of time injured.
Then he spent a lot of time injured and playing and trying
to be a certain quarterback. Yeah, that and I.
Was he an old prospect coming in too?
I think he might have been. OK.
That that would that would track like he started playing tight
end like 29 or 30. OK, I know, I know, he was a a
converted quarterback, but that that makes sense.
The the other I did wanna I wanted to go and and look at
Hayden Hurst who put up a fine box score this week.
Right. Wasn't yeah wasn't on the field
a ton didn't run a ton of routes but did I mean he was the
leading target earner on that team and it it might just end up
playing out as the the rookie quarterback safety blankie
narrative with right. You know, I mean I'll go on a
limb and say I think that like Hayden Hurst being the low at
root root chair, high target guy doesn't, it doesn't feel super
sustainable. Like, I mean maybe maybe you
want to disagree and but it feels like those those types of
combinations are normally like sort of gadget guys or and
players that are like real tough matchups.
Yeah, like maybe they're really big.
They go in when they're on the end zone And Hayden Hurst, he
doesn't strike me as that type of player.
So I do have. That's one where I have a hard
time seeing sustained. I I agree with you if he if he
runs this number of routes every week yeah I I don't think it's
sustaining my my thesis for how how does Hayden Hearst continue
to return fantasy value would be that they see that dude we can't
complete passes to anyway we got terrorist marshal out here going
2 for six and like right. Are we really going to throw
more to Leviskas Genal to like Adam Thielan?
Like? They just refuse to let Adam
Thieler take his Walker on the field, and he can't make a break
without it. So, like, maybe Hayden Hearst
sees a little bit. Maybe he's the only target in
her. Yes, that's maybe he gets more
routes and he's on the field more just out of necessity is.
What I could see happening but but it's also Shark was out this
week so maybe it's just shark gets healthy and Hearst
maintains this amount of route share and he turns back into a
pumpkin after week one and yeah that that makes sense and I'm
just last one before we move on and the Porter was interesting
and it's it's definitely if where you draft them you're
happy to see him on the on the starting tight end chart you're
at you're happy to see the 19% and target perette run you're
you're probably not too pleased to see the 4A dot but this feels
like a sort of like a neutral ish the ADP outcome for week 1
for la Porta and and and what you call it may maybe a slight A
slight win in terms of like the rookie the rookie tight end he
is playing and and and and perhaps as the season goes on he
he he goes end up at the top of his chart and and if he can if
he can keep the rest of his numbers and maybe increases a
dot and become a big win. Yeah, I I mean, I I thought it
was pretty bullish for La Porta to be because you gotta remember
that, that. That team, that organization,
they they have been slow to bring on rookies.
Yeah, in their office. No, you're right.
And so that's that was pretty strong signal to me that this is
they they think this guy is doed like they they want him on the
field and they barely played them whereas the reporter the.
Reporter was earning targets like he was he was involved
often the the low a dot is like you'd love to see you know a
higher a dot but yeah I I think the way that offense.
Is set up right now before they get Jamison Williams back, which
who knows how that's gonna even work when Jamison's back, like,
is he even useful. But right now they don't really
have anyone that's a field stretcher that can operate in
that deep. You know, those deep areas of
the field. Like, it's not Marvin Jones.
Marvin Jones looked bad and and Josh Reynolds.
Josh Reynolds looked like Josh Reynolds.
He was. He's fine.
He's serviceable. But do you think that La Porta
could end up getting a higher A dot just out of necessity for
the team to function like they need someone?
Yeah. And I think, well, I think maybe
I'm React, I'm probably at, I'm saying 4.2 and then it's like,
well he got 5 targets like talk about a small sample size.
Yeah, who? Who?
Maybe his true.
A dot right now is 8, even
without any factors like being in at all.
And then yeah, the receivers absolutely stink.
So, like, if he's any good at all like it, it pretty much
becomes a necessity to involve him down the field.
So in like, in a resurrection tournament, you said you thought
this was neutral ish for his ADP, yeah.
Where you would you would be taking him at the same ADP in a
resurrection tournament. Well, I was, I was taking, I was
actually taking the reporter quite a bit already.
So maybe maybe that's maybe that's a misleading thing for me
to say. And mostly on FFP, just to
clarify. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
That was on FFPC and. Which people forget is tight end
premium it's tight end premium and and honestly I I I was
thinking in terms of FFPC which which which me a couple that's
not correct and I wasn't drafting on UD and enough to
know where where where was the Porter going he he.
Had crept up a lot. He is like in the in the early
one 40s by the end of the draft season OK so yeah definitely
definitely better than neutral and I I I think you're you're
happily taking him and 10th through 12th and.
I was, I was gonna say 10th is the high, the high end as well.
So we agree and so yeah, that that, that that was a
misstatement by me. So I'm glad you you you you
pointed to that. It's OK, I I know you have FFPC
frame. Yeah, just a little bit.
And so I think, I think we almost have to skip the the
backup tight end chart. And I do have, I have two.
We'll keep it on, keep this tight on this one because I know
we've been. Almost two hours now.
But yeah, there's two that stood out here to me.
One was Friar Meuth. This is noise.
He got injured. He he hurt his chest.
He came back. He's fine.
He he'll have wait calls. So pat Friar meuth start.
Still a starting toilet. Yeah, don't don't panic on Friar
meth. The other one is absolutely
elite targets per route run. Jake Ferguson 43% And if you
watch the game, this was intent like.
Ferguson was an early read in the progression it was there was
a lot of stuff for Ferguson and it's I thought there was a
chance that the Cowboys tight end role would change with
Kellen Moore leaving. It did not.
The role is the same that is always going to be the safety
blanket outlet. You know that's that is that is
the, you know, low a dot. But.
High volume role that we've seen how boys tight ends have and
we're seeing him on the backup tight end chart here and but
that's probably they were up by so much.
They yeah he he did not play a ton when we were just running
Rico Dowdl you know straight up the middle or you know given I
loved cabante turpins just out there getting like carries in
the second app. We we had him early as some.
And some gadgety stuff. It's like, let's throw.
Come on, Deturpin out there in the second-half, get him some
more carries. Let's throw.
Deuce, deuce. Vaughn made an appearance.
It was a great day to be a Cowboys fan, man.
I was thoroughly enjoying myself week one.
I'm very happy for you, but we do have to talk about wide
receivers. We do.
And these charts are. These are.
Charts that are pretty dense with information, so I'm gonna
dive right into it. I'll kinda explain what these
are. These are gonna be the wide
receiver opportunity charts versus fantasy points.
So the Y axis. the Y axis is gonna be noisy this week.
It's just one week of sample. It's the fantasy points they
scored this week. Yeah, the X axis is their
weighted targets per route run. I can't remember if anyone ended
up over 100% weighted targets per route run, but that is
possible with weighted targets per route run just because we're
also incorporating the depth of target in there.
And so you can see right away Brandon, I you agree is that
he's he's in notorious. He breaks.
He breaks, I believe. I believe he does break the next
chart. Yeah.
I you obviously looked elite. There was drum beat on him all
off season that he was. He's going to take the next leap
week one certainly looks that way.
I'm I'm not ready to crown him yet as like the wide receiver
one on that team. I think the way that team's
points get every week is, is it puka or puka?
Puka. Puka.
Yeah. Sorry, go ahead.
Yeah, I was just rambling about IUK.
I think it's gonna be pretty highly variant though.
The way that the 9 inch points get distributed, it wouldn't
surprise me at all to see IUK and Debo literally switch places
on these charts in future weeks. I think it's gonna be.
Very highly variant, but I that's not to take anything away
from IUQ. It's probably a smash at his
price in drafts, and should go higher in resurrection
tournaments, right? Puka, let's talk about puka
though cuz that's gonna be that's one that people have to
make decisions on on waivers and that's a that's an interesting
one. Yeah.
And it it it it is an interesting one in that like you
know and it was sort of a it was sort of a reason that he he was
going so late and but then when you see him play so well in the
NFL you do have to respond and when you see someone get get a
90% root share this despite their injury to Cook and you see
heavily targeted. It's it's hard it it's really
hard to fade a receiver who's getting high root share and high
and target per route run like because there's not a lot of
room to like shit on that and and it's it's one of those
things where I I I always I I do always feel uncomfortable
betting on these like guys out of nowhere and but I think it's
like you get you get opportunities like this so few
and far between that he is someone where if if if I've got
some injuries at wide receiver already and I I think I do want
to be quite quite aggressive on on getting him.
I think that's how you have to play it.
You don't have if you have injuries at white.
If you need wide receiver starters, you don't really have
the luxury to be like, Oh well, what if?
Right. Who could a Hoola.
No, that's not for real. Like, I don't think you have the
luxury to do that. You just have to, you know there
there's a probability where the vet doesn't hit and he turns
back into a pumpkin. But there is also an outcome
where even after Cooper Cup comes back, this is the wide
receiver 2IN the offense, and it's an offense that hasn't had
a wide receiver 2IN years and it it could be a guy that.
You know we we we look back on at the end of the season it's
like how did we miss this like this right.
So I I don't think you have the luxury of of waiting patiently
on puka Nakua. He he arrived in too big of a
way in week one. You just if you need him, you
gotta be pretty aggressive on it.
I think so. Yeah, I agree.
Aaron Aaron in the chat asked How much fab on Puka?
What it What do you think? I'm.
I'm still undecided and I'm like I'm I'm probably not the best I
I I'm not as good as a a staff or a resident sort of fab queen
and so whatever she says after this is is the right answer and
but I think especially if you're especially if you need a
receiver I think honestly like 50 to 60% is is like fine.
I I was in my head I had like 30 thirty 35% but you you might be
you know like if if what we saw is like not too crazy of a
ceiling game for puka. If it's like, Nah, this guy's
just going to get, he's earning target right You're you're not
wrong like it. You should spend 60% on a player
like that so. I I guess it comes down to like
knowing the leak that you're in and what they're gonna yeah.
To get Puka. Right.
Yeah.
Yeah yeah you you don't want to feel like the idiot who paid 60
when the next bid was that was 27 or some point time and but
I'm I'm I'm more trying to think of like what's an efficient bid
and and I think that's right and but it's like you say you do
have to you do have to to be careful that you're not
overestimating your league mates.
Guys that I am looking at here is like a potential buying
opportunity. So my goodness did Ryan
Tannehill looked atrocious. Like really, really bad.
But DeAndre Hopkins? Is I I think he's still fine I
think I think you definitely I mean I don't really know how the
quarterback play improves a ton of they.
I don't think they make a switch and get better quarterback play
right. So I think you're just you're
just banking on Ryan Tannehill to come back and show that he's
a competent NFL quarterback, which he has been.
He's he's supported high end receivers before.
So I think just like chalk Game one up as a bad game and be
willing to say. DeAndre Hopkins is still you
know getting elite weighted targets per route run and are
you still are you buying and that are not still are you
buying I'll see trailing Burkes hanging out here with the with
the cardio club Nuke way ahead of them like you pointed out and
and that's sort of like would feed into this narrative of like
you know Nuke he's gonna earn so many targets that there's
nothing left for Burkes and I I I I'm maybe stubborn and I feel
a hard I have a hard time buying it are you and are you buying
that differential. No, I I think that Birch is
gonna creep much closer to Hopkins.
I think what we're seeing is that he had an injury and he
they were easy and back. You know, I don't I don't think
that sticks and also like last season got derailed for him too
because of injury. So it's right I I just think
we're still we're still early in the trail and Burke's you know
career arc and he he absolutely we almost were getting the
breakout last season and then he got knocked into an alternate
dimension you know and can cast the end zone on that play.
And so I I think that we could still see like I I I can see it
pretty clearly like that there's a week where the trail on Burks
has arrived game happens. It's like, holy shit, like, why?
How did this guy ever fall to the ninth round?
Like, that was amazing, you know?
So we're buying. The trail on Burks Dip is what
we're saying. Yeah, I agree.
Yeah I think we're buying the trail on burks dip guys that I'm
in that cardio club range where I'm like yeah, I'm good off that
Ohh man Drake London is so scary to me.
If he dips enough I'm just gonna take shots on the talent and
like assume I I'm in my mind. The way I'm gonna sell myself on
when I click Drake London and best ball resurrection is that
they won't it won't be like week one every week they can't
possibly throw this few passes. There have to be more passes.
That's what I'm telling myself, to be able to click Drake London
and if you get a deep enough discount, I think the talent is
elite, Elite to where it could pay off in a huge way.
So I just I pray that the market overreacts aggressively.
Yeah, I I just don't want the market to middle it.
I don't want to be staring down like Sixth Round Drake London
wondering if I'm supposed to click him.
I want to be looking at like 9th or 10th Round Drake London and
and getting it in and feeling great about it.
Or for him sitting in the 5th and I just don't.
Do it sounds a little bit like you do you just at game
negatively and and we talked about it with Ritter and but
still at A at a cheaper price you're just as excited to to bet
on that 99% outcome. Yeah, I I I am.
I I'm pretty sure that I lose a lot of the time on the bet.
Listen, we martingale. Yeah, it's it's one of the bets
where when it pays off, like that's why I'm making the bet,
because when it pays off, it pays off in such a crazy way.
Like there's there's an outcome where Drake London's a second
round pick that season. You know, like Drake London goes
for 12110 touchdowns this season.
Like it's in the range. It doesn't happen often.
I don't. I don't think it's very likely.
But that can happen for Drake London in a way where it can't
happen for other guys in this quadrant, for example, like that
can't happen for Van Jefferson. That is not in the range like
that. That can't happen.
Like even Marques Sprout, who I think is a very good receiver
like without a trade like that can't happen for Marques Sprout.
That offense won't score 10 touchdowns.
Totally. You know, like another another
guy I wanted to bring up here. What?
What do you think about George Pickens, who's also in this
quadrant, you know, floating near teammate Alan Robinson, and
then you've got his other teammate Deonte, dealing with
the hamstring. What do you how do you view
George Pickens? Going forward and I think pick
Pickens is is a hard one because you do you do have the noise
about and I, I, I I think we we talked about this before with
Pickens that you have to the the the.
Offseason chatter that like oh this guy doesn't separate and
then you get in and then his targets weren't actually not
great that last year and then you get in week one and again
target's not great and I think maybe just because he is, he has
been so good at at kind of jump balls that.
You do wanna you do wanna be a little bit patient like
definitely for me and it it's a it's a point into negative so
like dropping them down slightly and but it's like it's still in
a sort of range it's close enough to the middle of the
range like it's it's not that far from CD land for example and
where you can still see OK what if that's just the bottom of the
range. And and going forward if if if
what's his name Pickett can pick it up.
Now granted I, I, I, I, I went on on on record of saying that
I'm not too confident in that and pickings could be a good
pick and but yeah I I I think I think you sort of need like you
probably need a round, round and a half sort of discount.
And then on ADP and and given that and but I guess you do have
a caveat that it's week one and that that could just be a true
outlier for him. Yeah, I I wanted to Aaron in the
chat asked are we hoping Bateman outlasts OBJ.
He once seemed promising, but seems third fiddle.
If you look at the target, OBJ was on the field a ton and
Bateman was not. But OBJ didn't really earn a
bunch of targets. I believe Bateman's going to be
on a another chart here, right? Because he didn't get a ton of
snaps. But I I do want to dovetail that
into their teammate Zay Flowers, who if week one was any
indication, Zay Flowers was grossly mispriced in drafts.
Like I think the efficient Zay Flowers should have been going
right around where like you know late 445 term and he was not.
So that's one where I'm pretty sure the market's gonna correct
too hard. The market's gonna correct, you
know, to the upside for him just cuz he's a rookie.
He's exciting and now we we're starting to see, yeah they wanna
use this guy but that was one where looking at the usage, I
mean he's getting carries like they're they're manufacturing
touches for him like right. And he he looked good, you know.
So that's an exciting one. Yeah I agree.
And and and given them, given, that's a nice kind of segue to
the next chart. And oh, there's, there's our
chart breaker. There's Tyreke over 100%
weighted targets for over. Yeah, I'll, I'll, I'll hail them
our our merciless overlord. So yeah, I think that this one
you you get this one's like this chart is sort of interesting in
that you get these guys that are are are very much starters and
and then they are are are widely efficient with their roots and
you get those kind of four guy, yeah, four guys even including
Nicole Collins honestly very efficient in terms of their
target earning. And then you get you get a lot
of other guys sort of bunched around and I think the most
interesting ones to me are jail and waddle at very sort of
average with his way to targets for rat run.
Just do not expect that to continue into the rest of the
year. And and then Elijah Murr.
That, that that feels that feels maybe maybe I'm wrong to be
disappointed. It feels a little bit
disappointed just because I thought that if he was getting
this kind of root share that she'd be earning targets a
little better than that. But maybe that's just a kind of
a weak one thing. I think it might be a weak one
thing and just a function of the gate they were, you know?
Yeah, I don't. I'm not ready to to write off
Elijah Moore yet. I also think that Jalen Waddell,
when we think about Jalen Waddell, you know him, him
getting so many fewer weighted targets per route rather than
we'd expect is a direct function of Tyree just dominating the
game, Right? Yeah, I've got a really gross
hot take for you if you want to hear it.
Yeah, it's it's that and Nico Collins, Robert Woods, CJ
Stroud, Double Stack is going to win a Millie Maker this season.
I kinda. I don't.
I mean, it feels like a hot take, but I don't know that it's
that crazy in my. Opinion, right?
Well, you're talking about like low to middle salaries, right?
I'm talking about they're super cheap and I just play the vomit
stack and I end up jamming in the studs that I wanna be able
to fit into one lineup and they do just enough, you know, Nico
gets double digit targets again, Robert Woods gets double digit
targets, and I laugh my way to the bank.
So yeah, we'll see. Yeah.
And in order to, so I don't, one thing that I normally look for
in this chart is guys who who sort of jump off the page a
little bit and are sort of unheralded and how do I say
this? Demanding a higher root share, I
don't, I don't see a lot of that here.
A lot of the players I see here are just kind of like borderline
starter cardio club guys and very disappointing to see.
Yeah, well not that disappointing.
Chase Claypool and not earning targets.
Josh Parmer, DPJ, Paris Campbell, Ques, Watkins, MVS,
and they all seem like very those, kind of like.
Field stretcher. Borderline starter, but not not
important pieces of their offenses and that that's kind of
what that says to me. The two that I'm willing to to
say might might not be accurately represented.
And just in the Week 1 sample that we have here is I think
that Elijah Moore that we touched on earlier and Brandon
yeah both look like guys where given given the game script that
they were in neither team really needed to pass a ton.
Neither you know and I think Elijah Moore is going to be
Elijah Moore is kind of like the Zay flowers role of the Browns.
I think he definitely could fill that niche.
He might not do it in the way that we saw Zay do it one where
he's just going to get so much. But I think that maybe he's a
zay flowers light and then I think Brandon Cooks just in the
the little bit that we saw where he got targets for the Cowboys
he did have. I'm not sure if you watched the
whole game he had he had a really deep ball thrown to him
where he drew a past interference call.
I I mean that's like, yeah, the Cooks special that that also is
like the Michael Gallup special is just run run straight and
like pray that we get past interference.
I am. I don't think Brandon Cooks is
in the the cardio club section of this and I agree with you.
Where he's Ohh, you're talking about cardio club guys, My
apologies. Yeah and I I think he's
definitely in the range where you know it's close enough to
good where as the small sample size where where you could see
you could still that be. It's quite an excellent season
for him. Yeah, but yeah, going back to
your your cardio club guys that you were dogging.
Yeah, I I agree with you. None of these are ones where I'm
super excited and and where I see them earning a lot more.
I think these are all right, gonna they're they're kind of
dusted. Yeah, I I I should on Mvs in the
season. I I I sort of took stops at Quez
or IP. I wrote an article and took
stops on Chase Claypool or IP and not not very many people
taking Josh Palmer. And so he he was kind of already
RIP and and so if it's OK with you just because we're into two
hours, yeah, we're we're past the two hour mark.
Yeah this chart has some really interesting guys you want to
talk about guys that are going to earn their way to more, more
routes. I mean Rashid, Shaheed, Jordan,
Addison and I think the Romeo dubs is burying the lead for
Jayden Reed in my opinion. I think that I like a lot of
these guys that are in this quadrant, even Calvin Austin.
I mean I got a lot of Calvin Austin from basketball drafts.
But I the Deontay Johnson injury opens the door for Calvin Austin
way earlier than I anticipated it would be open.
And when you consider the fact that now we're before, I was
thinking the path to Calvin Austin playing was he's gonna
need to beat out Alan Robinson. And it's not hard to beat him
out. But you know what makes it way
easier? When Deontay Johnson is back and
healthy? For Calvin Austin to usurp Alan
Robinson for that third wide receiver role is game team.
See them both on the field at the same time?
Like getting to see Alan Robinson just trot his ass out
there and watch Calvin Austin actually display some legit
burner speed and maybe deliver a couple splash plays.
Like, I think he's gonna be hard to keep off the field.
And yeah I I agree with that and I think with Jaden Reed Dobbs
and and I don't think they're true like backup guys I I.
I think that was one where that probably was one where they were
quite a good bit ahead and that does feel quite encouraging for
the for the Packers offense and I'm I'm not I think I'm I'm I'm
absolutely saying that the the JSN stuff weak one noise and
when I'm more than happy to bury Skymore it's actually quite
interesting that his his root share was so low.
And his weighted targets per route run is so low and that one
feels like he's he's that that that's not good I'm I'm good to
I'm good to move on from Sky Moore I I think that he's we we
the Sky Moore experiment is done.
Is he a cut in a redraft and and and sort of like undraftable in
a resurrection? He's oh God I I guess it depends
and redraft. I I really don't want to cut him
just cuz no one really no one on that offense has asserted
themselves as like the guy. So I probably just want to have
it as a I want the lottery ticket for, right?
Even one more week? Yeah.
Oh, man. You know who I mean?
I mentioned this earlier. Holy shit.
Christian Kirk is gonna be bad. I mean not like it's not gonna
be the same week, one every week for Christian Kirk.
My I should have been eating my own cooking on this cuz I kept
saying the Calvin Ridley price is untenable because the way
this offense is is like it's consolidated between it's four
guys, it's Evan Ingram, it's Calvin Ridley, it's a Jones,
it's Christian Kirk. It's going to be those four and
it's it's going to be kind of like the Niners offense and that
you don't know who's going to who's going to be the whack A
mole popup receiver in the given week.
I didn't anticipate it being so bad for Christian Kirk though.
Like I I really, I thought that Zay Jones was a good click at
ADP and I started course correcting and taking a lot more
of him near the end of the summer as I let that take kind
of cooking the the brain oven for a little bit.
But I didn't correct Kirk was falling at the same time and I
and you know the Calvin Ridley team had gotten crazy.
It's like cool. I'll just I'll get both
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and one of these has to be right.
Well the cheaper ones looking more right right now and the
prices on Christian Kirk are are looking bad.
So that's what I'm kind of scared of.
Yeah. I I agree.
And definitely scary performance.
And did we talk about Bateman and just in connection with, Oh
yeah, there he is, yeah, we we mentioned him briefly last on
the last chart where he wasn't there.
But yeah, I think that Bateman is, you talked about guys that
are gonna earn their way into more targets.
I think that he's one of those guys.
He only had what he's in the 30s for snaps, right, 30% snaps or
something like that and he ended up with three targets.
So, and I think Bateman is good. I believe that Bateman is is a
good NFL receiver. He hasn't been healthy very much
so it's hard to to know but we've got very limited sample
where we've seen him deliver explosive plays and he he's you
know he's not able to participate a ton in the
offseason program. So I the story I'm telling
myself is that this is just him getting worked in to a it's a
brand new offensive system. You know, you're not going to
throw this guy out here for 100% of snaps week one.
And I think what we see is Odell Beckham's snaps decrease and
Bateman's increase. And because I think, I mean, we
saw Beckham not earn many targets because Bateman is going
to be more of a target earner than Beckham.
I think we see that start to come out of that zay flowers
share just just a little bit. And when it's fine I think this
is a this is an OK to like it's it's not that the target sort of
target per run that you're you're looking for and but it's
it's fine. And then if you look at stuff
like he did have two yards per route run which is pretty good
and and then is like you said he he he he got tree targets on
like a a smallish root chair definitely feels like something
where maybe the maybe the injury is something where they're
they're bringing them back into the offense and but it it it
sort of. Especially at the price you were
getting sort of encouraging in terms of like him returning to
injury and and returning to the player that you were getting
before. Yeah.
Hey, I I had one more that I have a question for you on.
OK, what are what are we doing with Braxton Barrios?
Cuz he was he was more involved than I anticipated him being
involved. I thought he'd be involved.
I did draft a tiny bit of Braxton Barrios, but what are
what are we doing there? And I don't think I'm ever
starting them in in in in redraft and like my team is
cooked if I'm starting them. And I think the the news is that
he's consolidated the third wide receiver role better than
anybody did last year which is quite good.
And I think that you still have this problem if if you're trying
to get your turd wide receiver where the Dolphins turd wide
receiver where Tyree Kill and Joel Waddell are just going to
command so many targets that it does make it hard for Braxton
Barrios maybe he's maybe brack Barrios is like a contingent
play like a really like limited contingent play.
And I think that I'm probably it's probably one of those kind
of late round guys where now that I know who the third
receiver is when I have Tua I'm I'm happy to click him late and
I think that he's probably like if if he's like the minimum
price for DraftKings I'm happy to put him in a tua stack and
but not a I'm I'm not I'm not buying that he's going to be
like a like a top what turdy wide receiver or any like it.
Yeah, and I I agree with that assessment.
I if you told me that I was allowed to play Braxton Barrios
plus River Cray Craft in one slot and get the points for
them, then I'm really interested.
But right, Yeah, I think. I think between the two of them,
it's not. They're not gonna consolidate
enough of a role in in either one to be super interested, but
I just, I thought it was was worth talking about.
Yeah, because that that third wide receiver spot had been
murky and that is an offense that is exciting.
Yeah. And so yeah, Barry LC got 29
routes and River Crack Craft or what is his name Craycraft,
Craycraft that's how you say it was 16.
And so yeah, I I I honestly, I thought when I'd seen him in the
in the kind of like 60 to 60 I thought if I'm reading this
right, bury us in the 60 to 65% and fruit share.
I'm like that that seems somewhat consolidated and and
and feels more consolidated than it was last year but you're
right it's still it's still not at it's still not high enough
where like it's it's not you're not talking about Tyler Boyd at
third. Yeah right.
Reviewer consolidation. And the two receivers ahead of
him are such strong target earners that yeah, you you
really, you need it to be Braxton Barrios plus River Cray
craft form Voltron to be the Dolphins, right Receiver three.
So and let's say at 0 ownership and the slate sets up for you
you you have Maxim you have high salary guys that you wanna fit
in you really like and you got your two stack I I I assume
that's is that something where even with low ownership that
you're that you're interested in in.
I'd much rather play it through Durham Smythe, right.
I mean, assuming that yeah, his his price is reasonable, but
like, I wouldn't. I wouldn't X them out.
If I wanted to have a lot of Tua stacks, you know I I'd make
sense. Just that just no, I I think
that makes sense where like it's still not consolidated enough
even at even at low prices where you're you're running to you're
running to play it. I I think that's a fair point.
Yeah, very, very. I know we briefly touched on
Jordan Addison and we don't need to spend a ton of time on him
because we're coming up on 2 1/2 hours, but.
Jordan Addison's going to smash guys.
If you if you can still acquire Jordan Addison in a in a redraft
league, go and get him. That offense is going to pass
the ball so freaking much. I mean what they threw 7075% of
their plays or pass plays and we we just talked about how bad
Alexander Madison is like and their defense is atrocious.
Like Baker, Mayfield went out and beat them, you know.
And I I do like Baker. But yeah, Jordan Addison is
going to be insane. That guy's he's good, definitely
agree pretty bullish for Addison there.
So I think I think for our all all one of our listeners who's
who's left, I appreciate you taking the the ride with us and
I I think I think we we finish it there right.
Yeah, I think it's time to land the plane.
So thanks everybody. It was a very fun inaugural stat
chasing episode for me. And yeah, I'm looking forward to
seeing you guys next week on Tuesday with some more charts.
Yeah, yeah. Really enjoyed doing the show at
Wow. We have two I I I underplayed
it. Double, double the amount of
listeners we thought, oh, let's go, we got 3.
Triple and appreciate it. Wow.
Appreciate you guys staying on with us and really enjoyed doing
the show. Really looking forward to seeing
the next week. Double the sample size and we'll
see you next week.