All right, it's Monday, ATP. Chasing, same Sherman's, not
here. I did not think I was gonna be
here, but I am here. We got Ben Gretch.
Joining the show. Let's go.
It's a teepee Jason. Pat Friar Holm Oak hand job.
Victor sighs Jamar Chase. All right, so, what's up?
Ben ATP, chasing debut. Yeah, what's up?
All right. I mean it was going to be just
me a Davis until a few minutes ago your on jury duty, right?
And then got this myth, I was on jury duty.
Fortunately, I was on jury duty. Friday did not get called for
the grand jury, which would have been potentially a disaster.
Got sent over to the Civil civil jury.
Overflow was not selected. So, here I am.
Back up. I'm a civilian once again.
Fantastic, more time. More time to bang out, drafts
at. Are you what?
I think would be. I think it'd be frowned upon to
be like hearing a case. Getting deliberate.
And being like, dude, round 17, Brock / D.
It's just like free money, bro. Like you got the button?
Yeah, they they were not a, they were like, sir, please stop
talking about Brock Purdy and answer these questions about
whether or not you're eligible for jury service.
All right, let's get so Sam's. Not here.
So the charts. Are going to be we're going to
splitting up the hosting duties. So Ben you're enjoying your
start. Firing them up.
I don't ya just starting our nope I guess we'll pick.
Yeah I might as well say I hate all these.
I'm not taking any credit for it.
Thank you Sam. And he sent over some great
notes and some thoughts on what we're seeing.
But yeah I mean the first name that name the jumped out to me
is Madison. I mean there's been a lot of
people shout out Pat Foreman who I don't think it's enough credit
these days but when he says something definitively you
should definitely listen. He's one of the oh jeez in the
fancy community. Doesn't mince words.
Sometimes he's been saying all offseason, Alexander Madison is
going to rise in value and it's happening now.
Yeah. Yeah.
Sorry who are you saying was saying that hacen?
I mean, basically it's dormant literally tormented sent a
couple tweets. Very different like specific
been all over it. Yeah.
I wasn't going to be multiple rounds, more expensive.
You're going to get, clv take him now.
Anyone who was paying attention as he's rising up considerably.
I saw him go in the sixth round of a draft that I was in
recently. And that, that point of like,
well, cook better be gone because I don't think, I don't
think I would take six. That's the big question, that's
why. That was the first thing that
jumped out to me, is okay. Like, yeah, you got clv and I
think that's obviously strong, but is it efficient once?
He starts getting really expensive with to, I think
really interesting running backs behind him.
They drafted the way McBride, who we talked about a lot, Pat
had like five Career College, receptions doesn't have much for
passing will, but a really efficient runner in college,
right? And then also type Channel, I
want to show and say, seagulls favorites from last season is
still kicking around a thousand. Guys, is Mike.
I'm not these guys are immaterial.
They're, they're not all them and all that material.
Call them, Matt breed and Gary Brightwell to me, I come on.
Wait, we disagree with that. I completely disagree to my, my
thing is they've got like the biggest running back contract,
this offseason, right? I mean, he got I got good good
money for sure. You got surprisingly good money
but I think that tells you that Cook an addition to them, taking
cook off their banner and replacing them with Madison.
Cook is not going to be there, right?
Like the tea leaves for the contract, I mean, the contract
is important but I don't think it means.
You can't pay somebody to be good.
You know, you can only pay somebody to do the job and I
think they've signaled, pretty strongly that Madison is going
to have a big role and they cook is probably going to be
elsewhere. But I don't think Madison's that
good. I mean, I think he's kind of
like a like a poor man's Josh Jacobs.
Type think he can handle everything, you know, where he's
like. Kind of a David Montgomery type
dude. Yeah, but David Montgomery has
seen, has had like, multiple seasons of, like, disgusting
volume. Yeah.
Yeah, that's okay. But one interesting thing on
Madison is you go back, a couple years.
He's never really done it over multiple games.
He's had the good spot starts with Dolphin cookout.
At times you go back a couple of years.
He was big in One last year with the new coaching staff, didn't
have double-digit carries in a game until week 18 or whatever.
The very final game had 10 carries and two touchdowns but
otherwise like was actually a lot lower in volume the year,
prior some of it was cooked missing games but he had I think
it was five games of double-digit carries three with
over 20 when he got the start was like the full time back but
like didn't really carry the load much last year at all as
under the new staff. I do realize yeah they paid good
money, this offseason so that's not like something I'm reading.
Too much into, but to pass point, I mean three point seven.
Three point eight yards per carry is the last two years,
yours for Target under you know, running back average inefficient
running. And receiving can do everything
but right. I mean he's a great backup
running back because you don't have to take them off the field.
He can do, he can handle everything.
But I mean, is he better than semaj perine?
And I felt so right, but he doesn't, he doesn't have to
contend with Javonte Williams coming back in week. 7, you
know. Sure, sure.
So, yeah. I mean, I think Madison could
good. What is fair bit?
Cook. It cook is not there and I don't
think Coco will be there. It's early be drafting Madison
like he's not but what is fair value?
If Cook is for sure gone. Like let's say, you know, he
gets traded to team X Y or Z, it doesn't matter.
He settles into the range of Damien Pearcy.
Andre swept Isaiah. Echo, cam Akers, Rashad white
like pretty good. I think that's the correct spot
for me. Yeah.
But like, I'd rather have Damien Pierce.
Pierce is my brother have shot? Y-yeah Pierce.
Is my most rapid running back this far?
Yeah, I think that's actually a strong taking the, I didn't do
read signals those. I wasn't really in on Pierce
last season, but out what out what I would say about Madison
and the backups, I think Madison can be a reasonable pick a good,
you know, cost-benefit pick at his Because there is the
potential for him to be the starter all season and be a
pretty big win at that cost and it can still be the case that
both Chandler McBride are really nice.
Last round like really late flyer.
I've been thinking Madison could potentially not Madison
potentially not be able to carry the load over multiple games.
It's not something we've really seen him.
Do we've seen him do the spot starts.
Madison could potentially get hurt.
Obviously, you're still getting like, potentially talented
backups like handcuffs and an offense.
That's going to be You know, good they have good receivers
are going to have running lanes open an elite receiver at least
one I mean I would want the handcuffing that offense anyway
it's a little ambiguous which of those two it might be between
McBride and Chandler. I think they're worthy Flyers to
take those guys could be massive hits if like so if Cook's gone
and Madison tears, his ACL like that's the traditional
handcuffed thing. Those guys could be massive hits
to Brandon pointing out that even so much as touch Handler at
1:17 overall and running back 44.
I don't know, I was never that into tide Chandler, I know Sean
Siegel loves him, I'm kind of more into McBride who I feel
like I know he does one thing really well is the new shiny toy
but maybe Chandler's. This the sharp player Chandler?
Chandler is like more. My Vibe is just like a crazy
athlete to me. It seems like it's just going to
be they're going to play Madison.
The way they like Madison is going to be David Montgomery.
Here. And then if he gets hurt,
whatever II would, I would be surprised if one of Chandler or
McBride plays so, well that it hurt here and is in, is some
sort of timeshare. Obviously, it could happen.
I would never say it's like 100% one way or the other, but it
doesn't seem like the most likely thing.
How much better of an athlete is Chandler.
The Madison a lot better A lot but that and he's got a
proceeding profile to write like yeah.
Jailer was a good pass catcher in college.
I think he would be my preference to because you can do
all three. Ultrasounds.
You can just kind of like, we're kind of doing like the film, bro
thing though of being like, you know, I think this guy is better
than this guy, but it doesn't really matter because I think I
think challenge the final two years of the running back
position. I actually think Talent is
starting to become an underrated component of of fantasy.
Football practice has just learned a lot of touches.
In the NFL, I wrote, at least last year in the the subset.
That was like running back talent doesn't matter.
But it's like the only thing that matters or whatever.
I said because like the it's not valued in the Market enough Pat.
I'm right, right? Yeah, that was my forget.
My I can, I click opportunities, massive, but then people like,
who cares? Like, like if Montgomery, if if
Madison is Montgomery then I think McBride or Chandler could
kind of be the Khalil Herbert clearly.
They're like, there's just so much more efficient and it's
like play him play him. If the down and took situation
is this much of a positive on Alexander Madison?
Then it should be this much of a positive correspondingly on the
cheek backups that are good. Bats, like Dynasty bats right
there. Good, Flyers to have if this
backfield is ambiguous and like, you know, very available, and
we're saying Madison should be rising all the way up and people
are taking him in the fifth sixth round.
Like you said, then the backup should be rising.
I think corresponding, I think what?
So by having his preference at our be 44, I think that makes
sense. I think in August there's going
to be about I thinking at our be 44 I think that's this is what
I'm getting. Semaj perine treyvion Williams
vibes from laughter Chris Evans by before.
It's like yeah mix it up. It's like it's like if you just
took Chris Evans your fucking you were bad, right?
But if you just took a bunch of perine or just if you mix them
up. Yeah, I think I think it's when
when the I've noticed this quite often in best ball specifically
which is that when the backup when the running back to is not
hyper clear, the market totally throws their hands up and
refuses to take a stand. Right.
The Cowboys right now Row, Joe Willie Davis do svan all in the
eighteenth round but I think We all could universally look at
the de gallo Dallas backfield and be like, it's gonna be fun.
Yeah. We we want to have, we want to
have. We want to have the running back
to their, if you want to have some exposure to the running
back to their. And if it's Zeke, I guess that
is a couple factors that it could be Zeke.
This could be, I mean, if they cut down even cook, like
couldn't this be a Leonard fournette, Korean hunt, Ezekiel
Elliott landing spot, not a concern, I believe the Vikings,
I guess it would depend How much money those guys wanted?
Because I believe they have a horrible cap sheet.
I believe, it's like nice, the Madison contract that much
harder to understand. Yeah, I know.
But I believe, I obviously don't quote me 100% on this because I
can't with cap stuff. It's all, that's why I
understand. Thank you.
Yeah. But they can't divide.
So, if if for net or Zeke or these guys are taking the vet
men, Then sure, but but it also, it doesn't it feel like the
reason why for net, our hunt or Zeke or whatever is not signed
yet is because they think if they hold out long enough they
can do better than the Bettman, right?
And I don't think there's any way you can sign the Madison
deal even if you're not in a cap.
I mean they're not like an extreme cat fine.
But then I know they're definitely not in a good cap on
the human of the offseason. People talking about how they're
gonna have to check contracts. I had to cut out.
I'm feeling all this stuff. If I don't think you can sign
the Madison. Okay, what's that?
I hadn't feelings. And I don't know.
Yeah, I'm gonna, you could have, they had to shit scratching
today. I don't think they've shut.
They've cut some Defenders to they and they traded za'darius
Smith for peanuts. Like they had to shut some
contracts. This offseason you don't you
don't have that kind of cap situation and signed Madison.
And another vet, that's like a 4 million guaranteed.
You can't do that. I just the Madison deal
precludes that from happening, it's got to be the vent.
Alright, so that was 15 minutes on Alexander Madison Gibson,
what's that? The Riser here that I like the
most is Gibson because just looking at the context of
running back, I mean if falls off so quickly we have like we
have evidence of Gibson being better than this, right?
And if we're talking about Talent mattering, I mean is
there truly any person who would argue that Brian Robinson is
more talented than Gibson and we don't even have the complicating
Factor when we were doing this last stop.
Season and Gibson's ATP fell, so much, JD mckissack was still on
the roster. Now, he didn't end up playing
because he got injured really early on in the season but we
don't even have a guy we think would steal these theoretical
receiving snaps from him anymore like I like Gibson more than
Herbert Harris. Penny a chain Robinson and Dylan
so that's like that's like a 20 spot spread of ATP.
I like Gibson to. I think it's interesting.
I haven't been, I like him some. I've taken a lot of Gibson but I
if he got up in that. And I don't think I'd be buying
as much mean, like, with Harris and Penny, obviously, with
Penny. There's some real, you've got
the I mean, I don't necessarily learn start calling guys
injury-prone, but if we're going to put it to anybody, well, and
his contract is pennies. Like, he could be the guy.
He could be the guy who ends up not on the roster.
He could be Roadshow from last year in the same range where
you're like, oh God. That's a burn pick.
But he is so talented and strength.
Such a good situation. If he is getting work that I
don't know. He's like and it's like He's one
of those things were, if penny has a role, he's going to like,
be a pretty reliable, best ball, pick over the court, may not be
a bit boom-bust. He's a to down explosion play
guy, but I think you'd be pretty happy about him early in the
season and Harris is similar where I'm like, man.
I really need a rb2 or in rb3. I like I like Harris better for
week 15. 16 17. Nothing to me says week 15, 16
17 under Ugh. Best while Mania, playoffs.
Then Damien Harris in the fucking cold running for three
CDs. No, 22 carries 67 yards.
Three touchdowns it's just thinking bills, tax left and
right. That's, I mean, I like that
place the Patriots, he plays the Patriots and he's 17, like, come
on, dude. That's why they brought him in
for that game. Literally, for that game
dead-ass II believe, because I think the Damien Harris, the
paint, just the patches beat him.
What last year by throwing three passes.
The fewest in like the modern era and By running it down their
throats in the bills and have an answer in that cold weather
game. Couple of it wasn't last season
was a year before, right? But they, the bills, they want
to be able to have a power running game when they and we
and they keep doing, they keep doing every coach on this and
the GM. Keep saying, we want Josh
allender unless we don't want him getting rocked up in the
regular security. You got me.
So yeah, so, like that stuff for me and a half.
PPR Formats. Like, I mean, Damien Harris
isn't amazing or anything but I think he is pretty good at what?
He's good at perfectly Crime. Alert running back.
Yeah, I mean, he's he's got some, he wasn't that explosive
last year but he has a couple years ago.
He was he was breaking off long, runs pretty well.
I think we'll be better around. The goal line than Singletary,
certainly than James Cook and so is probably an upgrade for them
in terms of like goal-line rushing and like early down
explosiveness, So yeah, I think he probably like, won't ever
have the Devin Singletary role or he just like gets everything
because Cooks, pretty decent, but I think he could do more
with it like a committee role then then Singletary was doing.
So, like, when my thing with Gibson is the coaching staff,
clearly doesn't like my know. It's a new offensive
coordinator. Maybe enemy will like more, but
it's still Rivera. That's just like if he's I kind
of like him where he's been going, because it's like, man,
this is a pretty sweet handcuff pick.
He can catch passes. He's pretty talented but I like
it as a bet against Brian Robinson.
Someone said, both of them are smashes.
Sam said about, look at that Sam.
Our buddy is was watching on the airport.
No, you're on an airplane off three point eight point, six
yards per carry Brian Robinson, right?
Me Robinson as a profile didn't look like you'd be a very
efficient player. This is one of those player
Talent takes certainly, but he didn't look like, you'd be a
very efficient running back. He was probably over.
Overdrafted. And then he got a lot of work
last year, but wasn't very efficient.
And to me, I mean, maybe it's confirmation bias, but I feel
like we're headed that direction, and if that's true
again, in your to then Gibson, it increases Gibson ceiling.
Let me let me make the case for Robertson who I don't really
like, I've been, but I've been sort of forcing myself to mix
him in because you do have him priced in a Range work.
He's like, yeah. I mean it's got a, he was shot
in the leg. What is what if he is?
He is he miraculously, guys? Yeah, I guess you got shot.
I don't think, I don't think that's gonna like me.
I don't think he's gonna be Joe. I mean, here he will.
He was shot in the leg last summer.
So he's now a year removed from being shot in his leg.
That seems like. That's why he was inefficient
last year because he wasn't training.
He wasn't, you know, fully Peach possible.
It's fair. I think he's likely bad.
Like I didn't like him as a prospect of thought he was, it
was like bizarre tonight. He was drafted with David
Shearer over this. They were like, I took a running
back. Well, yeah, I took him in all
these rookie drafts for like the various like, yeah, he's now Oh,
Bama running back. So he was always going to get
opportunity. But if we're if we're if our if
our line on ATP chasing here is that running back Talent is
actually a little bit undervalued by the market.
I think this is a literal perfect illustration.
I think everyone who watches football would be like, yeah,
Gibson just looks better, he looks more Dynamic.
You can, you can do more with him, he is better in the passing
game now obviously he fumbles. So that is a probably, he's
really bad at that like almost like historically bad at
fumbling, the ball and coaches hate.
That but and they already hate him.
I think with Robinson like I wouldn't go I just doesn't feel
like a great guy to go like heavy fade when he's being
priced like he definitely sucks because it's like the first guy
who's going to get the first crack at this job in training
camp, Brian Robinson, right? Like I would anyone argue
against that. So it's like, all right, we're
getting a guy who's like, in like the tenth round.
Who's getting a first crack at a starting job and he's young and
might be more. Talented than we saw last year
because he's a year. This is this is this is the
player talent that. Yeah, he might be more talented
but the player Town, think, when we think about, the fact that
there's definitely like a known known as there, will be
Evolution from who's starting in week, 12, starting in week 17,
in running, back in back fields across the league.
Like that's how the NFL works. We know that all across the
league every year. Some of it will be injury based
and will be Talent based. That's a known.
The question of even if Robinson is the guy going into the year,
What is the percentage that he holds that all year?
As I think the big question because I think a lot of people
think that's more likely than it actually is, if you look at
historical stuff and you think the running back?
It's like a 20% proposition that he holds it.
The whole year at his skill level probably.
Well if it is yellow glow. What is a 1 in 5 or that
actually works out? What if he's better than you
think? I mean I agree with you.
It's recognized Brian Robinson from last year.
He's not holding the job and he's basically you're basically
drafting like some early season production to help get you
through even that though could be valuable invest ball.
Like it is, it is valuable. Yeah.
And then it's like, okay, what if he just doesn't suck, which
there is some chance that he doesn't suck because I think
Think that him being shot in the leg.
I agree with that. All being valuable.
I'm just saying like I think I do think people when they make
that pic think there's like a 50% chance or more that he holds
a job all year and I the 20% of throwing out but I do think it's
marginally. Or not marginal.
It's significantly lower than people think in their minds when
they're thinking I'm getting the week one starter as a point.
I'm trying to make. I agree with your point on how
we can hit though. Sorry no I completely agree with
you that it's like he's maybe even twenty percent high if he
is the guy we saw last year because they drafted Chris
Rodriguez like Gibson's definitely more talented than
the guy that we saw last year from Robinson.
So I mean I was just a great point from Jay Megan.
This is I was intentionally avoiding this.
But how can you have any confidence that gives The one
who ever takes be robbed when this very coaching staff?
Well, well, I think I think this is a little bit of revisionist
History, because if you go back and look, they did go very heavy
on Brian Robinson for a period and then they pulled back on
that. Basically realizing it was a
mistake, like there was a. So there's a stretch here, Brian
Robinson, comes back and Gibson goes down to like 32 percent 25
percent snaps per game. I want to say it was this there
was like a Thursday night game where Brian Robinson had like 20
Date touches or something for, like, 50 yards or 50 yards.
Yeah. And Gibson didn't get on the
field until the fourth quarter. And then after that, the coaches
relented and then I mean, so I again revisionist history go
back and look at Gibson's usage in the passing game.
Like he was still sort of doing like a knight.
He Minds impression in the passing game, even when Brian
Robinson was getting all these touches and then they started to
use him as a rusher more later in the year.
And then he got, he got injured against San Francisco in week
15. So I was giving some Regards to
they were throwing it out there having him run like Slants and
like flagrant. So he caught a touchdown on like
a legit wide receiver slot. Flay growl.
Yeah. So it's not obviously, I mean,
it's definitely an eye of the beholder thing because you could
say yeah, sure. They literally brought this guy
back, who got shot in the leg, and we're starting him over
Antonio Gibson. And then, you can also look at
and be like, well, they saw the results, they got just giving
Brian Robinson the ball, and they were not comfortable having
Brian Robinson, be the only guy. Guy out there and I guess I
don't know. There's got to be a Chris
Rodriguez truth or out there somewhere.
Who's like they said, they had a third-round grade on Chris
Rodriguez. Yeah, everyone's got a
third-round. Great on everyone.
They draft it's like right? It's all day everyday for your
pack, is a third round rate ever.
Yeah, few runs another one on this on the slide, but I should
probably flip to the next slide. Right.
But perine well let's I don't know guys.
I want to touch on here. Okay.
Sorry before we go but just real quick on Robinson.
I think he does have a chance to be a pretty big Riser.
If you just have reports of like, oh yeah, Brian Robinson,
starting running back. Oh, yeah, you know, he's getting
reps at the ones if you just. So to me, I'm like I would like
to be probably maybe slightly overweight on Brian Robeson in
this period. It just because it's like, I
mean all he has to do is just not totally fucking suck.
That's yeah, that's yeah. To be a net positive but he's
also not going to win you. He's not going to be like a
league winning. There's other ways you can get,
we might be if I structure my team, right?
Yeah, sure. And the commanders have a good
week 17 game too, which is part of this?
Yeah. All right.
Let's let's go to Jaden read and Van Jefferson because I think
it's kind of an interesting way to talk about.
Like what if it's Jaden read shit, man, it's called.
So at this point in the year, you know, are you out on him
Davis? I just think I just don't see
why I should like Crane and I had this argument last week so
we don't need to go super in-depth and it but basically I
think Dobbs showed enough as a rookie to earn playing time and
not just beat Place because they took this guy in the second
round and Koreans Counterpoint was you get you get like eight
starts out of around five wide receiver like Dobbs was and you
pretty much call it good like anything you get from at that
point is a bonus times. Very sharp.
You know, there's a million of these dude there's their litter.
There are a billion of these guys.
Yeah. So I'm not even saying I'm 100%
right, but I am taking dr. Reid is is the next upon digs
comp has been. It's been prevalent in all
honesty. That's a weird one to me.
I don't know. Doesn't fit from the, it doesn't
fit all it doesn't fit at all. He's a fisa for your standard 3
year. Early declare?
Yeah, it's like, yeah. Who is?
I mean, and digs was wildly productive like his entire on
her class when career and then declared early, like, I don't
think it's a, it's a bizarre comp to me.
Other than that, like, both of them had good freshman years
like, okay. But right.
It's not, that's not the only thing that matters.
Yeah, it's just the early early breakout age, but that doesn't
make him digs. I mean, especially as a five
year, Guy like the early big breakout age, needs to then lead
to a three-year early to Claire for for you to be on the digs
track? Yeah, I think reads overvalued
personally so I don't think he's necessarily overvalued yet but
he's maybe trending that way I kind of like tacking him on with
Jordan love stuff. You know.
I like that that's available to you as a potential backdoor
stack. I think this is a big
discussion, we should have maybe at some point, maybe it's not
even appropriate for this show, maybe this is better for a ship
chasing. But there is a big difference to
me between guys, I am comfortable clicking regardless
of the context of my team. And guys, I'm comfortable
clicking in a stack. Like, for example, I think
Dalton Kincaid is like the worst ATP on the board right now, but
it's horrible ADP. He's a terrible ATP, legit
awful. I think the worst pick, but if I
have Have reminders. You know, if I have digs Josh
Allen from Andre Stevens and Gabe Davis, I'll probably
fucking just click him, you know?
Because I don't even think I'm cooking my I have I have not
done this like I have not, I have not done it yet and yet, I
don't believe. But like there there is a big
difference between like I don't like this ATP but I'll click it
when it works with like my stack versus like sure.
I'll click Jaden read. If I have Christian Watson.
Jordan, you Justin Jefferson Christian Watson.
Jordan love. Like sure, whatever, you know.
But I'm I would never, I don't think click him an anion week 17
stack Yeah, I don't I don't I couldn't with Kincaid on that.
Yes am actually sent me a couple notes from his clicking Dalton
Kincaid. Someone like no one's owning up
to it. Like no one is willing to fess
up that they're drafting. It's so weird to me because
Kincaid like honestly can K, could have like a 40% route
rate, the key could be so low and I think I think it best he's
got probably around fifty five percent, that would be like,
that would be something. Take dejection.
He's going like in the 11th round or something.
No, no prior way higher. No.
Dalton Kincaid is even higher than that Dalton Kincaid right
now is the tight end 11 going at 116th.
Overall he goes five picks behind Pat, fryer Booth, he's
jumping the shark that is the definition of Jumping the Shark
he goes ahead of Dalton Schultz, jig colca met, Greg dulcich.
Tyler higbee herb Smith Sam laporta.
I mean like just straight up. Like I think laporta has a
chance to run more routes than Kincaid so Sam.
Oh yeah. That me some notes.
A more routes Sam sent me some notes with these slides and he
actually sent a note as he compiled these again shout outs
am for doing all the work on the background on it on the rookie
Titans. You said Market is picking
winners and losers with Kincaid. Laporte of my mayor Musgrave
even though they all got so much off.
Capital protection. Guidance has historically been a
shitshow I'll probably fade market overconfidence and go
overweight the cheaper guys underweight.
The more expensive ones, it's kind of what we're talking about
here. T frame that point to me.
So I just wanted to You know? Yeah, yeah, no, no.
I mean laporta and Meyer feel like if I was to do I have not
done I've been kind of lazy with rankings but my guess is that
when I get through rankings I'll have laporta admire right around
tight, end 15, 16 17, something like that and I would have, I
mean I would have knocks ranked ahead of Kincaid.
I think interesting. I mean I think that's certainly
defensible because the the thing with Kincaid compared to those
other rookie tight tens is like, It's not just about how many
routes he runs over the course of the season.
It's about how many routes he peeks at in a given game.
And I think laporta could peek at like, 70, 75, maybe, even 80%
route rate at the end of the season and mayor.
I feel the same way about working.
Do you think, don't you think with the Porta there?
It also might be like a sink, a sink-or-swim thing where it's
like, you know, we don't have James and Williams like week.
Let's just look try and win some games.
Like what do you got kid? You know, Brock rights, not
really giving us anything. Let's go let's just toss ya fire
if I want a better rookie QB tight on, I completely agree
it's got to be one in a passing game.
It doesn't really have a lot of other weapons or options.
Like it's not going to be one that has Stefon Diggs as an
alpha and multiple solid ancillary pieces that have been
there over multiple Seasons. Josh, I'll entrust.
I mean. Yeah, the lines do have almond
Roth but it's they don't have a lot.
Like they're like you said sink or swim.
The porter could be the number to pass catch.
Those are the way the bills are almost like sneaky deep to it.
Fever because I think Deonte hard, he's kind of interesting
and he's a special teams player. He's a really good kick returner
so he's going to be active and I think, you know, Anna burner.
That's that's my round. That's my favorite round 8.
I say I love you. Yeah.
It's hard. Yeah, and Shakir I mean, I
thought secure look pretty good and they've brought along the
rookies pretty slowly so like I think they're better, I think
they're straight up better off having heart of your secure out
there then concave and like, We hear this all the time with the
tight end thing. Always, he's a big he's a big
slot receiver, you know, it's like okay, you know what's
better than like a big slot receiver though?
Just a regular slot receiver just a regular.
So I guess guy you feel better like a guy who just like run
good routes of like yeah, just like a guy whose whole job is to
run routes and being a receiver, instead of like a half, like a
like this is the whole. This is the whole like Liam
thing that he's done is that like, is that like, you know,
the coal Beasley role was, like, pretty valuable.
Actually, like, Cole Beasley was on His millionaire winning team
and I'm like, yeah, like I get it but like Cole Beasley's, a
better slot wide receiver than dog, Kincaid.
Probably and more seasoned Kincaid could maybe develop into
something as a big slot or whatever, but like you're one
that's a, that's a big-ass, great.
Like like people forget that we steamed Kyle pits all the way up
the board, right? And Kyle pits like basically
they gave him. The route participation stuff
that you need right away and it was pretty ugly.
Like I know he ended up getting to 1,000 yards.
But there were, it was a lot of, there's a lot of ugly weeks in
there. I don't know.
I mean, obviously, if Kincaid does Kyle puts his rookie
season, you're taking that as a huge win and he does play with
them and a better offense and more pass heavy offense.
But, you know, I mean, if you have 1,000 yards is a rookie,
we're all gonna eat this steak, really, really hard.
But I don't think that I don't really see that.
It's got personally. Then he had a funny tweet on
this, I think it was Danny, they said they want to use him as a
weapon and He was like, anytime a diva's feel says they want to
use it as a weapon. They have no idea how to use it,
what keeps have no idea how to use?
Yeah, those aren't. This is the junior Gibbs thing,
right? This is Kenny had an even
better. He had, he had an even better
dog, Kincaid tweet, and he's like, it's August 13th.
You wake up. You need a tight end.
You clicked on Kincaid ahead of Travis Kelce knowing but you
just can't he's not going to come back to you in the next
year. Like if you just if you just
search Kelsey Kincaid. On Twitter right now, you're
going to get a bunch of people being like, you know, he kinda
reminds me of a young Travis Kelce.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. My thing with the rookie tight
ends is like, in general, you probably shouldn't be counting
on a rookie tight end to like, help get you to the playoffs.
And so therefore, I really don't want to be taking one with like
a core pick and I would consider around 10 pick a core pick like.
That's that's like you need points out of around 10 pitch.
Yeah, and if you taking a guy with around, 14 pick maybe the
round 13 like you get a couple. Yeah.
You've been burned in a convert a couple.
You don't need that every roster spot doesn't have to be live.
Pat. One Pat one with Sony Michelle,
you know. Yeah.
Yeah you need, it's like the what you need out of a 13/14
rounders, a little different than what you need out of a
tenth rounder. And so, that's a huge point and
we talked about on ship chasing last week, but it's where the
wide receiver window. I think we talked about, like, I
don't think people talk about it enough, but the wide receiver
window sort of drops off its and becomes like It's zone of, like,
Lyndon Johnson. Quinton Johnson is a flowers.
Go and I can't even like telling myself stories right sitting
there, I took them immediately, the wide receiver position is
done. And at that point, it's all
Flyers because you're already at Flyers at every other position
basically. Yeah.
All right, let's ban Jefferson, by the way I, the ETR guys are
steaming him up and I'm very annoyed.
They still haven't ranked quite a bit ahead of where he's going
now. I think we're at Port of the
offseason were like the rankings are going to start to shift
atp's and in big ways and I think Jeffersons Our people have
been complaining about this saying that I referenced the ETR
influence on ATP, too much. But, like, it's just such a
clear example of this happening. Like, you got to be aware of
what people are drafting off of. He's literally like the biggest
Riser on this whole list and they have him, they've had him
like 50 pixel head of his original ADP.
Do you guys dropped off? Rankings in the applet?
Or do you prefer to draft up a teepee?
I'm rankings. I'm sorry.
I'm a teepee. Yeah, pretty much exclusively.
I am doing rankings because I'm testing out.
My rankings and make sure they're not there.
I always have that password keys because I was drafted ship.
She's always bats, rankings and pizza count.
It's great. I have I've experimented trying
to do some DraftKings stuff. And I've so teaser here, I
might, I might do DraftKings rankings.
I'm seeing if I can get them dialed in decently without a
ton. More work on II.
Just find drafting off rankings, just too hard.
I just find I find it's easier. DraftKings because it's a tee
pee so bad that it's actually helpful to have guys.
Like, you don't have to care. Like, I'll forget about this
amazing there at the school you're at the scroll around.
Yeah, I think it's better to draft off a tee pee on Underdog,
but that's because that's because atp's more efficient
there. Sorry, you're probably saying
this, but I'm gonna say I'm drafting is your profit.
Your rankings are probably influenced by underdogs ATP to a
certain degree, right? And then you're uploading of the
Draft Kings and then you're like, well, I'm using the
smarter ADP on the side. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
But I'm trying but you also want some of that.
That like Jackson Smith. And Jacob is a good example
where like, I'm comfortable. I know.
Davis, you're not really down with him, but I'm comfortable
taking him in, like the fifth round at the end of the fifth
round and on Underdog partly, because you're going to get like
locked out a wide receiver, if you don't grab a wide receiver
and you know, I'm still willing to bet on him is like a
late-season type of guy. And I know when I take him as
like my wide receiver three, I realized like oh crap, I'm
behind I need to like I feel like I'm you gotta take you got
to take you, you got to take Juju Smith Schuster on that team
to make sure you have someone alive for the.
Yeah. You take Jacoby Myers.
You grab a van Jefferson later. You look at kind of eat your
vegetables later in the the draft wide receiver whatever.
But on DraftKings like you you should get that he and he gives
in like the seventh. Eighth type of round took a
range of there. I think you you want some of
that value. So I don't know.
I'm trying I'm trying to experiment with that.
All right, I'm going to flip to the next slide because there's
eight of them here and we've got a half an hour on the first
slides of four hours to room today.
What we're facing right? Wouldn't be unusual.
I was gonna say you can tell you can tell creches not, listen to
this because we like we did like so I got his chest on this but
basically we all realized we gamed this out with ADP and
realize Alan was going to be the quarterback that fell.
And once the schedule came out and that's exactly.
What has happened Allen is and and more people who are not
badge, Bros Wii also, all universally agree.
DJ more was going to be a Faller Dalvin.
I mean, Dalvin will be a Faller for now, but then when he
resigns, when he signs with the dolphins or whatever or whatever
team, he signs with, I think you'll probably come back up.
What's your take on down? But I think diamonds are really
interesting one because like I'm worried about him in terms of
like how much he has left. I mean, the Vikings really don't
seem interested in Him at all his contracts horrible.
I don't, I wouldn't read too much into that.
Well, so it's basically in the numbers.
I'm looking at in terms of his receiving efficiency its way
down. Yeah, well, he's got this, he's
got this chronic shoulder injury, doesn't he?
Like, basically, like and so I just imagine that it's hard to
be an efficient player. When you have a chronic still
wasn't efficient Runner last year.
Let's be fair. I mean, no, he wasn't four point
four yards. Per attempt is like he
inflammation. Success rate here.
Was sixth worst. Fifth worst you have at worst
success rate was poor. Gotta hit on some long runs then
I don't really remember. It wasn't quite as bad, but it
was negative for 44 yards per carry isn't terrible.
Yeah, but I guess like me that the NJ look at like, yeah.
They look like where the Defenders are and whatever on
the play and so he might have had some more light boxes, you
know, I've run three wide a lot, I guess so.
I mean, here's the thing of Dalvin is the lead back for the
Miami Dolphins. 71 is a good price on him, right?
But, but if he ends up being in, I don't know like what we're if
he shines with the Buccaneers or something, you know, like
they're there. oh my God but if he goes to the Chargers, Yeah, I
guess guess we should probably start mixing them in because at
least in terms of closing line value, like I don't know.
I'm, I am worried about him in terms of like he was worse than
David Montgomery and rushes over expect.
Hell, is he going to be done? Like, I don't know, I guess
running back to do just get done like whenever and it just
happens overnight. So so it's totally possible.
Yeah, some guys lose it like real quick and he's not young,
he's yeah. 2728 in August. Yeah, yeah.
You know, who do, you know, who is the biggest value on this
fall Earth list that we have right here?
Kenny, Kenny Walker has reached the point now where I'm him and
Sharps honestly, both, I'm very comfortable, clicking them where
they go. So I've been saying Walker's a
fifth-round value ever since the draft and so I kind of want him
to fall a little further before, but I've seen him in the mid
50's and I I'm down to take him there, partly?
Because I'm like, I don't see him falling too much further
than that. So it's like, all right.
I just think I think there's a real stink, there's a re liable
DeadZone picked to me. Well that's the thing is, I
think they're like obviously that's just kind of it's just
kind of a dead zone of the draft in general.
I mean when you when you get to where he's going like so after
Gibbs Watson and jobber ago, Dude, you're in the wilderness,
you think, you know, there's something to hate about pretty
much everyone, honestly, for the rest of the draft.
But sometimes I'm sitting there and I'm like, okay, Kenny Walker
or TJ, Hawkinson, you know, or Kenny Walker for DJ more.
And I'm like, I'm not clicking DJ more like no chance, right?
And I do like Walker much more than the four running backs to
go immediately after him Jones. Aaron Jones miles Sanders.
Yeah, and you zoom and Joe Mixon me, too.
Although I mean, I kind of like, DJ more.
Once he gets down until like the very late 4th early 5th.
I think that I think he's gonna, I think he's gonna keep.
I think he's gonna keep sliding. I think the, I think the slide
now that now, that projections and stuff, we're getting out
there and people are doing rankings, I think we'll see us.
I don't think he's slides too much past, the mid fifth because
Fields is going to be in the fourth and so you just have that
easy clean stack. If you come back for five, you
can take. Yeah, you're gonna so I don't
think if you're waiting for sixth round DJ more, I don't
Think you're getting it. I think you should though.
I think you should get it but I don't know.
But I don't think you're right to say that you won't get it.
Yeah, I just uh if the I don't think DJ more is going to be the
guy who kills my reason. Honestly if I don't know if I
and I've always loved DJ more, I've always been higher on the
market but this situation and and I know I mean, no one really
like do Chase Claypool is going to play and I don't care really
that he was so bad for them last year.
I mean I do if I'm if I'm worried about If I'm going to
factor it into DJ more, I mean DJ more is going to have the
best quarterback play like of his entire career.
I have just don't really I think with the low volume you need and
more one of the really exciting things about Morris.
He's been successful at all. Depths you need him to have the
Deep efficiency Fields. Can throw a good deep ball.
I think that's really Central to him.
Actually hitting some type of ceiling this year as any hits on
a lot of deep shots. So, I think lately and also
Tyler Scott who they brought in, in the draft, is a good deep
shot guy that I think will hit on.
A few of those this year, think more might get used underneath,
a decent amount. Tyler Scott was what?
Like day three, pick. I mean, he's Danny Gray.
He's Danny Gray. Danny, Danny grunting on some,
some clear out routes. I think he's got speed, right?
Here's the thing. If what you just said is true
and DJ Moore's, the underneath guy in the Justin Fields Bears
off do is then it's over. That's why I said, it's so
Central that he gets deep shots. Absolutely, and the other my
point is and then Darnell Mooney is well.
The other receivers and even Vilas Jones.
If they use him at all the other receiver, oh my God.
Is Love Jones like a, like, a big Tavon.
Austin, isn't he just the gadgety guy?
Yeah, he's like a punt returner. He's also 37.
So we might retire before. Yeah.
So I don't think anything about him.
I think if you just look at kind of what happened here with the
Bears, they came in last year and they were like we don't even
know what we have and we're certainly not going to commit to
Justin Fields. They didn't they didn't bring
in. I mean, I guess they brought a
Claypool halfway through the year which was a terrible trade
but they didn't do anything with the offensive line.
He didn't really have any weapons and Then when they move
off the number one, pick a big part of that trade, was them
getting DJ more. So I think there's, at least a
chance that we see a bit of a different Bears team than what
we saw last year because last year they need, if they play the
way they played last year, it's so awful for everyone.
But for, yeah, I expect. But that was, like, historical.
That was like, some real, like ideological shit.
That's what, so that's, I think that's like the important point
is that when people are projecting this, increase in
pass attempts for the Bears, it's Like your it's that's like
saying like you know, we're going from the Bronze Age to
like we have the wheel now you know that's not that's not
historically accurate but it's like it's not, it's not the
leap, it's not the statement from things happening after the
wheel. Yes I didn't I didn't that was
not. That was not, that was not the
right analogy for me but basically they could they could
throw 20% more and still be. The lowest or second lowest
volume passing offense in the NFL for sure.
Yeah. But that's actually part of the
reason why I like, have some optimism for more because it's
like some regression. Like, be the Ravens be, the
Ravens and I'm psyched. You know, like, I mean if that's
so, like, I guess like you are cited a fourth.
No, no, no, because I'm not at not at where he was going, but
I'm saying, if I'm getting the fifth, I think I'm okay with the
part of part of the idea of them being the Ravens is that Fields.
Also, just like, as Lamar did take a big step and efficiency
that Fields also. Takes a big step in efficiency,
which is easier for running quarterbacks to do because the
safeties are, you know, like they have a different job
against the Run. There's a lot of different
reasons for that. I think my prior is that Fields
is not that guy and I'm always, I'm willing to adjust my priors
but I think really, it's just the sax thing for Fields.
It's not as if one number of bothers you so much.
A number of time ship chasing a couple times.
Twenty-eight percent 20% of Dropbox.
Last year, did not turn into To a pass attempt, which is an
astronomical number. He is tied for the league lead
in this act. I mean massive.
He led the NFL in scrambles and he also was tied for the league
lead in sacks and has dropped back.
Number was very low because they didn't call a lot of passes.
So the fact that he from a raw perspective, let in both of
those non pass. Attempt categories, isn't great.
I think it speaks to Claypool and Mooney, not winning down the
field as like big-time vertical threats.
But I also think it speaks to why they went and got DJ more.
They're like, we need a legit number one.
Who can be open quicker in the Drop back.
We don't have a great offensive line, I think they specifically
see him as this. Yak guy in short and
intermediate ranges. He does have deep throat ability
but they already had all that on their roster short and
intermediate is, why did they acquire DJ mourn?
For me. It's well, they want to make it
so that, that, that tells us a place to go with the ball, early
and has dropped back field. And it feels a little precise to
me to say, though, that he's only going to do that.
Like, I don't think so, but it's a big part of the range, right?
Like you have to be, I think it's precise to find Way out of
this working, right? Like from a number perspective,
like you have to get a regression on volume, you got to
get a regression on a fields of efficiency.
You got to get regression on on volume both in terms of call
past place and the scrambles and stack stuff.
Probably both sides of those have to get better and is
overall pass attempt verse, drop back ratio as to improve from
both angles, which are two different issues in my opinion
or related. But I mean there's there's a
lotta guy though along the way. We're getting a guy mean in some
ways, I don't think it's that precise to bet on more.
It sort of just it's like it's a pretty simple thing.
Like this guy we're taking the third round last year who is
going to have an upgrade in quarterback play and is and can
do everything. He can be, he can win deep, you
can win underneath I don't even have a great year old lady.
That's the other thing on a precise thing.
Patty, you just hit on that. He didn't have a great year last
year either. We're not pricing that in at
all. He was going to throw up last
year. I loved it.
He came down last year and targets for outrun in a lowest
yard front of his career. Not great season last year as he
started to get into his further into his 20s but I didn't have
the worst quarterback in the entire League last year.
Yes, his whole career, he's typically overcometh still the
right. You know, the yak and stuff
wasn't still there. It was a little bit concerning
actually that is it that is a I think actually a pretty decent
concerned because on top of the volume stuff now we have to
wonder too DJ more. Is he falling off a little bit?
All right. Yeah but I think at the I don't
I I tried and sad. I don't think that I don't think
I don't see any Fallout from him.
Like I'm just saying in terms of you have to get a lot of things
right for this to be right? There's all the volumes if I was
saying there's at least a minor concern that his numbers last
year were worse than any other Unis career objectively.
I don't think it's you get that many things, right?
If you think you have to get he's DJ more, he's not he didn't
become bad, he's DJ more super-talented guy who succeeded
with terrible quarterbacks and the Bears pass a little bit more
and Fields, isn't isn't horrible.
It is it's three things but which is, which is too much for,
like, a middle of fourth-round pick, which is why he's falling,
but I think if he falls a little more, because I've done things
where I've taken him in the late fourth, because the guys on the
turn already had quarterbacks, you know, like one guy's got
Alan one guy's got hurt or whatever and I'm like, and then
Fields comes back around because Fields is falling a little bit
too. So I think if you can set up
that stack, I'm into it. I mean, if Fields has A great
year. DJ Morse going to crush like
that that I feel pretty strongly about hotter.
Yes yeah absolutely I have that backwards.
I think if DJ more crushes then Fields having a great year but I
don't think it's a precursor to Fields having a great year.
I don't think you have to stack them with more.
I think you don't have any stock decently talented player.
Claypool's a decently talented player Fields runs a ton and
those guys are good enough. More can definitely be an
underwhelming performance at this ADP and Fields, concealed
smash with rushing. And other guys of contributing.
Yeah, it's probably fair. Just how much rushing Equity, as
right? You can own for 1,000 yards,
anyone else will do. I wanted to mention on the Allen
stuff in the quarterback stuff, just in general, I do think that
there's something with. Okay, so Borough goes like in a
Range that makes absolutely zero sense, right?
You can't you can't stack Borough because he goes kind of
in that early fourth round range.
And I'm like, who has who has been drafting burrow like you
can't get him with Chase or Higgins who were on the other
side of the board? And part of me just feels like
maybe he has to fall a little bit.
I've seen Fields starting to fall a bit.
This is DraftKings. So who knows if it's meaningful,
but I've gotten fields and like the early 5th round.
And I'm like, okay, if burrow and Fields were to fall and I
know that I can get those guys a couple rounds later as a early
part of the board, rafter. Then why am I taking like Allen
and homes and hurts their, when I'm like, oh, I can get fields
and burrow a few rounds later, like, and maybe I'm stacked.
Maybe I is the Jamar Chase drafter.
I'm like, well, I feel confident I can get Borough later if he
starts to fall. So I think like these all these
early quarterbacks are kind of intertwined because if they do,
they're definitely. I mean, look at six of these
names up here are all quarterbacks falling.
I think the quarterback Market is just correcting a little bit
because everyone was just a little bit pump.
Shut up. Yeah, but I think burrow might
be the key to it. If Borough falls to the end of
the fourth, then I think all these quarterbacks, I think
Trevor Lawrence is the canary in the coal mine because he just
does not deserve to be like a sixth-round pick or whatever.
I have. I have a Watson ranked over him
in my pure rank. Yeah.
Lauren's. I completely agree on that like
very aggressive projection of what he did late in the year and
what that means and how were these going to fit like a like
he's gotta be without a ton of rushing Equity.
I mean he's got some Mobility but he's got to be like a look.
A top three, top five and Bishop a circle, you like Mahomes our
Borough. Basically that price.
All right, let's talk about. Let's talk about Trey, Lance.
So so today, what a city is this is a weekly thing I did it
teaches it is it's a weekly thing.
Yeah. Well what what is so bizarre
about it? I'd them.
So the market right now is basically like we don't know
because Purdy is not going any higher.
Donald is like, going ahead of like starting Actually knows
dark and Arnold is like the quarterback 35.
I was TV answer. Darn it.
Darn old feels like a burnt pick.
I've never been good at first. I would leave you.
You're literally like it's your the we're all trying to find the
guy who did this mean, you popularize?
The idea that they gave him a bunch of money.
It's hold him. This is you had a chance to
start. This is literally your deal,
dude. Wait, what?
Donald know. My point was the things they
were saying in the media about. Yeah, he has a chance to start
or what you would expect. For them, bringing in a
quarterback and that their reaction to bringing in a third
quarterback, made perfect sense. If you look at the way their
season went last year with three quarterbacks got hurt, including
one in the NFC Championship came in.
They had no one to play. Yeah, they're going to go get
more quarterback, that they think that's smart.
And yeah, to entice a former top five pick.
They're going to tell me as a chance to start.
I don't think he actually has a chance to start.
Like that's the thing is like I don't think he's good.
I don't think he can win the job from a talent perspective.
I don't think they're serious with what they're saying in the
spring about what's actually going to happen in training
camp. I don't know.
I think he can probably beat out tray.
It's in a fair fight, to be honest at this point.
Oh man, he's in your hair with Brilliance after four days in
the lab. Fixes, throwing motion.
No, no, dude. So, there's I Karina and I are
DMS, or just us going back and forth on players who are
terrible and so are the most like we, I like every time I get
like a trail and blurb, that breaks my mind, I just show it
to him. And the most recent one, is that
the guy who worked with Mahomes coming out of Texas, Tech soup
when time working with Trail and it was like, yeah, normally it
takes about a day to like, you Kind of go through everything
and understand what a guys doing, you know, mechanistically
or whatever took four days with trick.
Like basically, like basically like just have you ever flown
before? Why is your motion?
So inconsistent, why does it look like a five-year-old's?
It's it's insane. So like I think I've I started
out. I mean, Crane and I were arguing
about this a lot in the first iterations of this program, I'm
a purdy bro. Now I'm like the 49ers hate
Trail ants. They It's like, it's like, you
know, someone will ask how Shanahan some do you know
D'Amico Ryan's left? You know, what are you going to
do about the defense? And he'll be like, yeah, you had
no totally, but like fuck Trail and so like make sure you get
that in the article. So I'm just a pretty bro.
Now and the report that came out this week is re murabba at my
sports update said something. I had not heard, which is that
as a part of this hybrid surgery that they did with trailer with
Purdy that They'll know where he is on his healing curve.
If he's going to be ready, like if the surgery was successful by
like June, so they'll basically be able to look at it.
Hmm. Judge his recovery judge.
His probably like his get his grip strength and stuff and be
like, yeah, this is going to work or know all the officers
and discussions are gonna have a winner or Loser by June, that's
exciting. Well, so Cobra, Kai saying that
he's trailing, it's never been cheaper, but can only be used in
three quarterback, builds in a ceiling.
Could be Jalen. Stir It Up.
I disagree with this three quarterback built.
Yeah, I'm pretty strongly, I think, the more you can burn an
entry on train. Lance, why not?
Yeah, if you're going to take Trail ants the payoff, only
happens if you draft in a to quarterback build because that's
an extreme only. Well, I don't, I don't I don't
agree with that. I agree with the large Point.
You're trying to make here about like you're trying to win a
couple million dollars. Let me let me finish the point
because I think. Okay.
How does Trey, Lance, pay off Trail Ends pays off because he
is the guy who's starting right away because Brock / D isn't
ready and pretend potentially rock pretty, you know, we get
news that the surgery, didn't go great, he's gonna have to get
another surgery, whatever you don't want to have.
If that happens, Trail ants in the 15th round is an absolute
smash provided. You drafted like he is actually
going to be your quarterback to. I don't think you want to have
burned a tenth round. Pick on another quarterback.
Otherwise, like what have you really gained with drafting
Trail? And sure he's going to be
helpful, but you've spent too much of the quarterback
position. You didn't, you didn't build
your team to benefit from that win enough in my opinion.
So you can gain playoff ceiling without I mean, because one of
the one of the things that market might be telling us is
that multiple guys are going to start games here.
And so like part of the Judgment which I think I agree with, by
the way. Yeah.
Like so the part of my thing was saying Donald is not that he
can't. Start games and said, I don't, I
think you'll fucking suck and then you'll start, you'll have
to go get benched after three games, right?
They'll go to someone else who ever seen, whether it's Lancer
per day or whatever. I think they're gonna
potentially use multiple guys. This is you talk, like Mariota
and Ritter. This was the thought going in
last year, and the market was pretty correct about it.
Mario could be pretty, good, light round, but not valuable
enough for what matters because he might miss.
Their, I can't get mad, which is why you take Purdy, I think
which is why which is why Because when the games matter
Purdy's playing. So right and so common here at
that price, Trail Ends could pay off, just putting up 30 in week
17, that's not the play. The tray Lance is Trey, Lance is
not a week, 17 plate Purdy's, the week, 17 play birdies, the
guy who if you're just trying to have someone come in and help
you at the end of season, drafted three, quarterback team
with Purdy. Yeah.
But Trey, Lance is a, he takes the job from week.
One and run wins. Yeah, he's good.
He's good. They'd be pretty.
On the bed and he adds another element to their offense if they
can't take out anymore because he can Rush then that, is that
the Playbook? And they're like we got to keep
starting it. Exactly.
And so in that, if that happens, do you want that in a two or
three? You strongly want that in a to
quarterback built and you by the way, your tears not going to
win, if you take Trail and a fifteenth round, like, I guess
you could overcome it, you know, having a dead 15th round picks
certainly, but it's like then just don't take him if you don't
think he's gonna win the job outright, just don't You can
then take someone out. Yes.
You have if you have no conviction ensure a lance like
just just don't, it's not an ambiguous.
Know I grew up this it's not an ambiguous.
Like what's up by the biggest? Backfield his running back some
like what the payoff is, what quarterbacks?
It doesn't have to be that because you can just go to a
different quarterback that is going to start 17 games or very
likely will start 17-game, right?
Like you don't have to be right on an ambiguous quarterback
situation because if each of them does start that the Niners
had one year, were they had three different quarterbacks
started? Like almost exactly.
A third of the season was the year, they acquired Garoppolo
late. If each of these guys does start
multiplying people games, probably all of them won't be
great place. Even if there is a ceiling game
in there somewhere because it won't be great for built, you'd
like to have multiple, quarterbacks two, quarterbacks
ideally that are playing 17 games and are both good and open
up the rest of your roster like to use a spot on a guy that only
starts, you know, eight or fewer games, but has some ceiling
games, is probably pretty tough because quarterback points are
replaceable. As you've written about this
offseason Pat like the 30 points in week 17 that obviously, on
its face would be ideal, it would be great to have You're
under thing but it's more replaceable quarterback than a
30-point spike week at any other position, right?
Like we're not just trying to grab out of ambiguous,
quarterbacks situations, the way we are at other positions, it
doesn't make it the payoff isn't as large right?
It's not as large. Yeah, the comment here saying
you can get Lance in the last round if you can get Lance in
the last round which isn't his ATP?
Then you can you find fairly fairly frequently you can?
I'm not going I'm not. This is more of a take of like
if you're trying to make sure you get like Lance exposure at
this. Rice generally.
Yeah and I think yeah param with param with an elite probably
someone mentioned that he's kind of like Kyle, are you comparing
with an elite yet gypsylord, said he's like Kyler if he's our
second quarterback with an elite, I've been doing, I've
been doing this, I've been doing this Kyler thing of like the
wind horse meme. Like what?
Like what if Kyler comes back and like week 6, and it's like
Kyler because he's just so happy to not be with Cliff any more,
like, it's pretty intriguing, right?
Yeah. Because, you know, yeah, because
the whole Market is treating the Cardinals, like they're there.
Radioactive and they very well might be, I mean their rosters
terrible. But if the new coach is good,
Kyler's feeling better, you know, Rondell DeAndre, I'm not
obviously able to draft a ton of underdogs but I'm drafted, my
John Posh ones that that fancy cares, eliminated or leaks and
yeah, The Eliminator leagues. You can get balance each week
Kyler was radioactive to everyone of my league and I
eventually took him out. I was thinking the same thing as
you like, I mean, it's a super Flex format but I was Like I can
see the upside later in the year early in the year, you know,
that it starts to whittle down totally different format, but
you would think in an Eliminator League you would stay away from
Pilar. But I'm enough with you on this
that I could see it. That I was like I'm willing to
take this path. The big payoff though is that
quarterback pricing is so expensive relative to where it's
been in years past like last year for example, with Jean
Watson 12 game suspension. I'm like I don't have any
interest. I don't think it's ceiling.
Is that high and week 17 relative to all these Other guy,
so I didn't do any, but not like, for example, run that back
with quarterback pricing this year, instead of Mahomes in the
fifth Mahomes goes up pic18, I probably would have taken some
12 game suspension DeShaun Watson.
Right? And Kyler's basically, offering
the same value prop with a good week 17 game that you can set up
like yeah, skip skip jail and hurts.
When you take AJ Brown, then take a running back, then take
them on to submit then take you under Hopkins and take Kyler and
like a three quarterback build where you have an early.
Like a for sure. Starter.
You can also get Rondell late. You can get treatment.
Broadly. You can get hurt slate if you
prefer. Yeah, but you can take Ernst
Gerald in the last round. Yeah.
Like just lots of ways you can get kind of boxed out and then
go to a three quarterback build with Kyler i'mi'm, probably done
it enough but he's hit, you can't chase that up though
because we do have to be concerned about.
No no. You cannot like once he gets
like if he's going ahead of like Jared Goff and Gino I'm out.
Yeah. Oh yeah he's got to be Dirt
Cheap. Absolutely yeah.
All right, let's go to the next slide here.
Okay. Game stats the week 17 game
Stacks. This chart?
Always breaks my brain a little bit.
It's already broken bread. Yeah.
A bunch of the team cheap team. So here's what we have gaps.
Like the Carolina, Jacksonville one, we have the cheap team is
Carolina. Jacksonville's expensive.
You guys are doing great. So so in this chart, let me
start at the expensive side, his house that I've done you guys.
I've done. Tyreke waddle, Mark Andrews and
it's real, it's really fun. It's really fun.
I know, that's a lot to spend on one game but you can get to a
later and he lines up pretty well with those those atp's to
where you're not, like, having to reach and you've also like
locked up. Like basically someone would
have to take naked to uh if they're going to snipe you on
him because it's like who out, you can't really back, switch
back door stack to it too easily.
So that one even though it's expensive I actually do enjoy
that one quarter by. So the way that I would read
this chart is if you is not necessarily what you just
described because you're hitting on both in the expensive range.
But if you're inexpensive rage and you're questioning out, do I
want to keep taking Buffalo pieces?
You can because you can hit the New England pieces later and
still make that game stack work and you probably pocket.
A lot of Buffalo pieces later. What's that?
No, you got your cure and you got Hardy there are.
Yes, there's some flyers. Shirking Harris later on there's
no maybe Jacksonville Carolina's, a better example.
But like if you're paying for your study Jacksonville stack
early you can still hit on your Carolina stack Les try to sort
of the yes up here. Yeah what do you guys think
about stacking basically quarterback irrelevant.
So like just being like all right I got the aforementioned
Kyler Murray. Jared Goff and Sam Howell but I
stacked cans. Kansas City, Cincinnati and
Arizona Philadelphia or Dallas, Detroit, or whatever, without
the quarterbacks. Like we're like basically the
basically is a way to bypass paying a huge price tags on the
quarterbacks because they're so expensive this year.
So one way I've yeah, I like that.
A lot of wrote an article about that on legendary upside, a
couple articles that are kind of reinforcing the idea of like
stack without the quarterback, I think it's pretty important,
especially We in a field that's you know, 400-plus and best
bulmania like 600 your good, 600 plus buddy.
No. It's for 41.
The final. Oh I meant total field sighs.
Yeah okay yeah I mean the week 17 final so you're going to need
to hit on like a few different things.
And so okay, let's say you're now betting on like Patrick
Mahomes to have a huge game. I do think you want to maybe do
that while you also have a pretty strong quarterback
yourself. But I think Richardson fits that
like, you could potentially go get like Anthony Richardson and
then stack up one of these big games.
I've also done stuff where I have an allen or I have a Hertz
or Mahomes I like aggressively Target the chargers, guys, and
I'm like the chart, like Justin Herbert's not going to hurt me
because I have an elite quarterback, and I'm trying to
scoop up these Chargers severs. Get some Denver guys on the
other side, it helps that I really like Marvin Mims at his
ATP so I can like stack up that game.
Mmmmm. But then also have a big stack
of an elite quarterback game and my bet becomes, like, Herbert
might even outscore my quarterback but not by a lot.
Now, I've got by 5 point off. Yes, exactly.
And I've but I've got, I've got a stack that's hitting and then
I've got another stack that's hitting and that's how I get to
the top. Yeah, yeah, I do, I do, I mean,
I like this strategy like, in DFS like when there's, you know,
a five thousand dollar punt quarterback and then doing
Kansas City Los Angeles or The thing I want to throw on this
chart, the the ATP change line is probably the main point here,
and it's showing how much more expensive or cheaper.
The stacks are becoming the negative numbers.
There's this really helpful little pink quote box here that
I read, which was the instruction manual.
So Atlanta Chicago has gotten the cheapest -1.1 average ATP
for those pieces. Arizona, Philly also getting
cheaper - .9 about a pick on average, you have Tennessee.
Houston is the cheapest stack getting more expensive.
So people are like hey is really chatty that game that game by
the way. Like if I was just ranking games
that would probably be like one of the best games that seems
fun. Yeah.
Yeah, why not? It's that's you take you take a
little Derrick, Henry, you take a little chigga a little John,
mechi a little. Well, it's a beautiful think of
Brussels, Eric a bergson you do. I don't think you really want
Henry and Burkes, right. So if you have pierced you want
beers but I don't think I don't think you want Henry and Burkes
together. I want to throw like a
Singletary in on that like I think he got thrown single
Tyrion. Yeah.
That's funny. Yeah I like Stroud is kind of a
backdoor stack type of guy. Yeah I don't I don't love
Stratus Prospect but he's priced pretty nicely.
I think probably Pierce being hurt or missing that game for
one reason or another would make the game more fun as why I was
thinking Singletary. Just to clarify.
Don't take, I mean, I like Pierce's of pictu but I if he's
healthy, he might be getting 25. Carries that games, Less Fun.
Yeah, yeah. It Derrick Henry gets 33 carries
Damien Pierce gets 25, the game's over and 110 minutes.
You know, that's that's not that's not what we're hoping
for. That's not the scenario.
Rams Giants is another one that I like because you can go like,
you don't even need to set that up.
That early, you can go get like wall organ in the seven could go
and you could go Stafford Hyatt to, to van or higbee or
whatever. He'd be in Van.
Yeah, you honestly can. Yeah.
Yeah, and you get all the Giants receivers late to.
So like I mean, Paris Campbell, I don't take a ton by took him
recently. I was like they did give him a
lot of money actually, so maybe he may be actually has a role
but those guys are, it's so ambiguous that I'm like, if I
have Daniel Jones and Waller, is it bad to just be like I'm gonna
today I'm going to go Hodgins and Campbell or did I am going
to go? No, I know.
Why would ya know? I think that's 100%.
I want to ask you guys a question because you're drafting
more than me for Detroit Dallas. Their team atp's are really
close on this. Do you guys find is that just
because it's an average and the ATP ranges are different for
each team or do you find it difficult to stack that game
because there's too many players in the same draft fringes?
I find it difficult to stack that game, okay?
That might be a way to interpret this.
There are no good late players from Detroit is the big issue.
So you have to set it up with a modern house and brown and
Gibbs, and that's it pretty. Much and then you also got to do
the lamb. You can do lamina up top.
Yeah sure. And then and then I mean Dallas
they have, you know, gal wide receiver 66 and then Ferguson
Ferguson is actually probably I bet if I look right now I bet
Ferguson's my most drafted tight end you.
I mean it's not a surprise to me.
You love the jar with a couple of years ago.
I feel like you're always being literally.
So dude, he literally is just all in Schultz and Blake Darwin,
like there's no difference between I mean like these, like
Pete. Like you want to go back in time
and like act like either those guys were prospects.
Now, taste them is by most drafted, but Ferguson the
furnace, is it should be as it should Ferguson's getting dull.
Stitches. My number two, oh wow, you're
just gonna keep eating it on the Denver tight end, huh?
Every well, it breaks that it's that Ross is Russ's.
I think they're really good pick.
Such as Dallas as Dallas and Denver, you got these two teams,
you just love taking the Titans from So what would you say?
Russ is a really good pick right now II.
Think it looks like obviously if he could just flame out and be
awful. But I think if you're getting it
in that range of the draft and you're like, all right.
Well if like try and tell yourself a story about how these
guys become like top scores at quarterback, you know, and I'd
you just can't. You cannot tell yourself a story
about Russ 1zz, he's insane. And that makes a wide range of
outcomes. Maybe just bounces back.
Like we don't know what he is from an actual like off the
field. Like He's maybe a sociopath.
Yeah. He's, he seems really seems
really ground. It's green.
That was like, your funniest moments on this show are never
like big huge moments. Like when Pete is like doing a
bit. It's always just like, very,
very subtle. That was what I was an all-time
ship chasing moment but like, yeah, he goes around.
Derek Carr, Jordan love, Bryce young, Matt Stafford.
Like 0 top 12 seasons in the range of outcomes for those
guys. I think but if Russ like the
thing that I keep coming back to is that Drew Brees was done,
Drew Brees had a peashooter couldn't move in the pocket,
couldn't just could not do shit, and he just kept turning out, 45
hundred yard seasons with Sean Payton as head coach.
So I to me, I don't even care about the physical decline,
which seems rapid for Russell Wilson, but if he can just buy
in and maybe he won't write because As Korean said like he
just can't buy it because he's too you know, egomaniacal or
whatever. But if he does by in there are a
lot of talented players on that offense like a lot of like
there's a lot of guys who can make that engine go.
It's so to acknowledge uncertainty with Russ.
I mean, we have no idea what week last year.
It was massively different than expectations, right?
Like so why couldn't this year be?
That's probably, that's probably my fake notes expensive.
That's probably my favorite game for many staff.
Tax and just trying to stack it up without the quarterbacks
because I don't know what is going to happen with Russ, but
to your point about, you know, Peyton being able to get stuff
out of Breeze, I think you could get plenty out of Stidham.
And if it's Tim at the end of the year, like I'm not actually
that worried about the offer yet, right?
Putting up points so it's like okay, like if I have a couple
other quarterbacks, yeah, I would prefer to have had Russ if
he ends up having a great year for sure.
You know what, I think he is priced, at a point where he does
make sense, I've taken him to I'm not like feeding Russ
necessarily, but I still just kind of just like, really like
that game as I'm going to get pieces of this game and see how
it plays out. If Russ false me to Value cool,
you had a lot of rust last year, right?
I'm just glad that we got this. I'm remembering you being really
in on Denver last year. You were saying a few different.
I was way you mean. Are you even good at basketball?
Like how was your winrate? I was pretty big.
You were like all over Denver like, it seems like you might
have a fucking sweaty, all the sweaty.
Nerds were all over Denver. Yeah, hey wait the terribly.
But you won this bet. It's my we mix up our exposures
because you also got to make sure to stack up Tom, Brady, and
his final season when it all falls, when it all falls apart,
because he might have one good game at the very room.
I might have one, but then not even use my Gavin's, like 37
ball or whatever. Oh, you can't draft Mike Evans,
you cannot go look. I did, you know how many times
I'd like double-checked that he was taking ahead of my pick in
the second round because I I didn't take one that's him.
That's all right, what else? What else to cover?
Yeah. I need any other Stacks.
Let's move to the next one. I don't I mean unless you guys
got anything but no, I got nothing.
We got a lot out of that slide for how much we understood it.
Now we got another one. Figure out.
Well, this is bullshit. Maybe I don't understand.
Oh yeah, what we figured out is when I answered this real
quickly about, I do think Judy's a little bit steamed up.
I think Sutton is somewhat overvalued or undervalued.
I think he's like, Acceptable to me, a big thing is, like, you
can go get the also, sometimes, he'll fall really late and then
Marvin memes is like, super easy.
So I know this probably in a on, I think it's pretty interesting.
If you're building a light at running back, which I often am,
who's it gonna be? The first?
Who is going to be the first out to be brave enough to try and
make KJ Handler happen again. It's not about it.
It's pollen. So on John.
Yeah, the thing that I would say about that question as well.
Real quick is both Sutton and Judy of had trade rumors.
It would not be As far as if one of them still got moved this
offseason. I don't think with the with the
Mims pick and that's where you can start making the hammer case
to but like dulcich Mims and stuff.
And if it's like just Judy, let's say sudden got moved,
maybe it's not going to happen but they have a lot of depth of
receiver wouldn't be that surprising to me.
This in short though, goes really well with the last chart
answers, my question about Detroit, Dallas, in terms of
what ranges the court, it's the average of the double stack but
then what ranges, the quarterback on the tube top
passing names go so you can see how to stack those teams.
And Detroit. Dallas her You got you mentioned
that almond, raw and CD go early?
So you see the wide receiver? One is early for both teams and
then the key being the wide receiver to both go sort of in
the same range, probably hard to get all different pieces in
those spots. Some, some teams are just like
really hard like it. I just find myself not stacking
them just because it's the ranges are just so bizarre and
someone else always wants it more than I do.
Yeah, one one that I like is that San Francisco?
Commanders game. I do that one a lot and you
don't need the quarterbacks there.
I mention this on the show before, but it is just one that
I kind of come back to and you can play it any number of ways.
Like I've done it with McCaffrey and then McLaren and you're
like, you know, the 49ers are just going to beat the crap out
of the commanders and they're just going to throw a ton.
I think that's like a very very light.
I find myself. I find myself taking howl and
pretty or just like these cheap quarterbacks a lot just like I
get Kerfuffled in the middle of a draft and I'm like I got to
figure out a back stack, right? So I gotta take, you know, so I
take dots in and around 8:00 and then I take howl or I mean the
big bailout when I do is Jacoby Meyers and Jimmy Garoppolo,
which is like, that's the that's like my real fails and then if
you're if you're truly stuck and you just have to do it to make
yourself feel better, you can take Matt Jones around 1700
Henry and round 18. That's Also Thornton Thornton
and Mac Jones. Sure sure.
I mean that is like, that's just you're just doing it.
So if you screenshot the team, no one makes fun of you first
like an unsexy. It's so it's so you don't get
yelled at you know the team's dad.
You just don't want to get yelled at right.
Well like I said like I planned it all out.
It's true. That's why Pat thanks DJ more is
not bad. I figured that out like 10
minutes after we got off DJ more but he was on the news on the
million dollar team last year. God damn it.
Stop figure out my bias. Okay.
Why why would the Raiders not be the best team to stack?
I think the Raiders combination of high-end guy, Adams, and
Jacobs, multiple cheap pieces that you can sell yourself on
whether it be Meyer, Weatherby, Renfro.
I mean Renfro is like free yet. Thousand yards and six
touchdowns like 18 months ago and he's just dead, right?
Because I guess because the assumption is, you can't play
three slot wide receivers all right time, but they wouldn't
sign to slaughter, the best slot receiver on the market.
Why. That's yeah, I don't know.
It doesn't make any sense but then, and then garoppolo's free
to, and they're in an iterative fucking Dome and week 17 against
the Colts. Like it's I do, I just I'm
taking Raiders and Colts players a lot in these drafts.
So One thing it's not really priced into Myers and run 40 and
maybe it shouldn't be priced in much.
But is there any chance that Adams does force his way off the
team? I mean, he's already kind of
modeling wheezes. He's literally, he's literally
already. Like, I fucking hate it here.
Like I came here to there, too. Yeah, I mean Myers and run
throat. Like are my crazy.
Perfect receivers with Jimmy Garoppolo.
It's not a 4.5, you know, it would kind of be perfect.
And what Maybe it will transform.
No, I don't think the Jets can go get him for Rogers.
I don't even think the Saints can go get him for car and who
else is like going out of their way to get out.
Um, is that a really steep price right now mon someone always
will. You see my dad?
Is someone, someone will figure it out if he really wants to do
it. Yeah.
You'd rather on the atoms then Hopkins, you know.
So I don't know. I mean to the Chiefs that she's
getting something pretty in division.
I don't think the Raiders are sending him to the cheese.
It was just, no, you don't. We don't, we don't give
Thirty-year-old players that much money.
We Tyree kill had like a bajillion yards and a million
touchdowns and they said your 28, dude.
Out of here, kick rocks. I mean, maybe some like the
Giants or something, but it's Adams going to be happy with the
Giants if he's not happy with the Raiders.
Like it's just no probably. Although I mean, he could earn a
ton of Target, he'd be kind of perfect with Daniel Jones.
Yeah, that would be a good one. Actually did coach and make that
mean, maybe some like that could work.
But Yeah, I don't know if I don't, I'm Young quarterback, as
number one. I mean it feels like the thing
is any team that would make that move for Adams, doesn't it?
Feel like they would just acquire Hopkins for cheaper.
I mean I keep work cheaper in terms of pick compensation and
its contract is smaller and shorter.
If I had Bryce young and I'm like I want to make sure this
guy succeeds I'm going after Adams I think he's perfect for a
Young quarterback. Yeah I don't know if I agree
with that or not. He gets okay you just gets open.
No, no. But I just saying, in terms of,
like, the compensation between those two players is really
different. Yeah.
Maybe you're right. I don't, I guess.
Are you giving up like a? But I guess if you're it's so I
guess if you're the Panthers, just like having a superstar
like Davante Adams, who was certainly more famous and a
bigger get then Hopkins is like that probably swings on it too.
Yeah. But I don't know, I mean I've
taken some Jacoby Myers who is also my team last year so maybe
it's just part of that bias but you playing the hits crazy.
You just gotta do it. Like all right, I got
Unk all offseason right after he retired.
Right up until the point, even when like, you know, he's do.
He weighs like 220 pounds, he's doing the WWE.
People are still taking Gronk, but people are not taking Brady
right now. Well, he is in ownership
discussions rather than player discussion.
So I don't think I'm ready, already retired I don't fucking
by it dude. Tom Brady Tom Brady is Mentally
unwell person. He's gonna wait to see what
teams going to the playoffs and come back in November.
I'm not able to have any evidence of that.
I'm not ruling I'm not ruling shit out when it comes to Tom
Brady honestly. Could he play for the Raiders?
If he was an owner? Is that is that like a thing?
It's a go. I mean I don't think I've Bridge
has been crossed. I don't think any owners of
beauty to try to play they. You think that play for your own
team, right? They used to have player coaches
back in the day. Like way back when he bought the
Bobcats. It wasn't like hey he might come
play for the Bobcats and yeah right.
You could do that. I mean George, George Halas.
The Bears guy was was Maybe the owner but definitely was a coach
and a player dude. No.
There's never been anyone more cocked in the history of the
world. Then if Jimmy G comes back and
buys the tie and part of the team sighs hard,
that would be I hope in my room for that to happen.
It's just too good a happens. No.
Yeah. All right.
Slide when we got yeah, what do we got?
Average. ATP of top five players by team.
So, the Jets are getting a little cheaper and then there's
another slide with the rest of the team's, okay?
So this is the top half. So this, yes, I guess I guess
the weird to the weird thing about the Jets is because they
cut themselves by just doing whatever, Aaron Rodgers wanted.
No one actually wants to draft any of their other players,
other than Garrett Wilson and briefs also, it's like you're
like, oh great. I got the double stack with
Allen Lazard, you know, and Conklin's free.
It's like it's that the Jets a good pic.
I think Conklin. I mean, he's probably a fine
pick. Although, you know, I mean, if
he is not willing to go on like, A wild mushroom hunt with Aaron
Rodgers in you know, Upstate New York then to be conquered seems
like the kind of guy that would be I mean we have long hair,
he's got the test like I said this last week.
I mean he's he's pretty strong odds to be down, he's down.
Think about like what is one of Mercedes Lewis and Aaron Rodgers
talked about over the years? Like what is their common
experience? And I realized they're both
fucking old. Like everyone talks about how
old Mercedes Lewis is not realizing that Aaron Rodgers is
also 39 years old, they're both they're both just old guys so
that's why that's why marcedes Lewis gets to stay in the Inner
Circle. There's not a single image that
I can find a Tyler Conklin. That makes me think he wouldn't
have a good time with Aaron Rodgers.
Oh yeah, not One has come up in one of his official Jets
pictures. He's got his man bun.
Done up on the top of his head. I mean, this this guy.
I mean, I don't know that he knows how to party, he knows,
yeah, he's he's also watch some YouTube videos in his life.
I'm willing to make that bet. Okay.
All right so Conklin is a good pick what about?
So this is the cheaper teams. We got the the the commanders
and Rams are getting a little bit more expensive.
The Cardinals continue to fall a little It.
That's the that's the van Jefferson Fallout from the e TR
stuff I bet. What's talked me into why I
should care about van Jefferson? You shouldn't?
Because technical you into that been, but I'll try to talk to
people and to it which is that he has, really no chance of like
not running routes because that you've got cup and then nobody
this is, this is pooping sclerotic is gonna run right
now. I'm taking been sporadic over
van Jefferson 10 out of 10 times.
I would know, I know the guys are both wrong.
You guys are both wrong. It's fucking 22 at.
Well, it just Still okay? To, to out, well, can have a
role certainly and I've taken a lot of 22 out, well, because
he's completely free, and I think he's probably pretty good,
but he's like, 155 pounds. As we sit here today, he'll gain
probably 10 pounds in, August it did.
Look, he's like 24 25. Now it becomes a little bit
easier to put on the weight as you age.
So what extra he might be up to might be up to like 170.
Now, I hope that you had a 10% to his body.
Mast. I mean, if he's 170 pounds, he
could have went in the First round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
So but he's a slot, right? He's a pure slot, and you got
cup there. Like, It's just tough for him.
It's tough. For him to get that many routes
man. Jeffersons, and he can play
outside, he can play inside and they need bodies.
And look, they drafted him in the second round of they've
played him consistently the entire time he's been there.
I don't think he's getting back. They need bodies has never gone
bad at wide receiver. It's not a position where Talent
matters or anything. Well, what's the price?
You know, and he's going in like the 15th round or whatever.
So at that At that price. I actually think drafting in
May, this guy's definitely gonna have a role and plays wide
receivers pretty decent. But why would Ben skowronek be
worse? Because he, well, he's never
really played him in Rana cruel. Skowronek has only ever played
out of sheer. Desperation, Is that true?
Yes, fact check that. He's only ever played.
Like they weren't do. They were running out like Alan.
Robinson's corpse who couldn't generate separation from like
Andy Reid over Ben's qur'anic but they were playing van
Jefferson. Yeah, maybe that's wrong.
It does suck. Yeah.
Vin Jefferson was playing when they had Odell Beckham that was
the three wide receiver set. You know, he was playing all
last year, he's just going to be a part of the three.
Receiver set. I mean, again, they spent a
second round pick on him and he's never been horrible.
He's not good, but he's never been like, oh my god, get this
guy off the field, right, correct?
I just looked up skowronek and like different little, look up
things and he I mean he kind of sucks.
Yeah, he's not good. He's like, and he's like a total
non Prospect. Yeah.
How do you like it was vaguely? Interesting.
But now he's not good. I would save in Jefferson career
yards per hour on a 1.31, he peaked as a rookie at one point,
four six, he's declined every year since he does strike me as,
like, one of those guys were great pic when he was like,
basically free, as he moves up here and every, every round more
expensive, he gets, it's worse. He, it's worse because, like,
his odds of, like, hitting those Spike weeks of the end of the
year, aren't Great. And if you need him for the
course, the entire season, like if he gets into like the 13th
round range, then I don't love the bat, but we are at risk of
hitting dead roster spots at this time of the year and you
know, as a later round pick I think he is at least gonna get
run. I will say on on his efficiency
this is one of the numbers I hit up just just for the people that
I'm not just being a hater is a little bit of a reason he had
three catch. I think it was last year at
least two of 65 plus yards. There's only five guys in the
NFL that did that you can hit on those and that would be great.
But those are I think the only games last season where he broke
65 yards and you know, tells nothing else in Odell's first
game, he scored like a 70-yard touchdown.
I remember, yeah, he's got a couple long TD.
So maybe you hit on those in Matthew Stafford again, but I
don't, I mean, I do think when you talk about even like you
said, 141 what yours for a run? First career 13, someone with
rear 8.31 just Great. And also that includes him being
one of in one of his three seasons and he hasn't run at on
around over his full career because he was hurt last year,
didn't play time as a rookie, you're talking about being one
of only five or six. The NFL, it did that the other
guys were Jamar, Chase. Tebow Samuel.
Like, elite players and Beyonce Hardy was on that list last.
Wait, no, I'm talking about van. Jefferson has career yards per
hour 101.3. Yeah.
No, I'm saying, so his yards proud and be inflated by the
fact that he had just an abnormal number of extremely
long place, which I understand, you can't just pull those out of
samples. This, and the other thing, the
fact that he's People doing that still matters and yet it's still
not a good number. Even though he has an abnormal
number of these extremely long plays, everything else sucks in
this profile, right? And I do like to toot toot.
You had one point six seven yards per hour on last year.
It's like functionally his rookie year because he got,
redshirted, he's, he's like a very interesting Prospect.
If you just ignored his weight, which obviously, you shouldn't
do because 155 pounds it, that's one of the reasons you might get
red shirt. It is a key.
But yeah, I mean I don't I don't dislike to to it van keep
steaming up then I think 22 becomes obvious.
I'm just meaning, I'm just meaning this at well thing
because I'm pretty sure I can win because like he'll have at
least one flashy player. Yeah.
He was like is like he's gonna
and I'm gonna be like, bro. I told people to take him and
round 18 free, hang on your plate.
When you say wind, you just mean a Twitter Victory lap.
Yes. Oh yeah yeah yeah.
This is not about this is That's what it's all about.
I told you, literally you're not ever not everyone is as public
as we are so. So if your traffic, are you
concerned about the rivers at 22 but literally blow away, that
is, I hadn't thought about it. But now I'm gonna have to
reconsider this strategy. Yeah, Davis, that, that is some
pretty big downside for you on Twitter if to toe in 52 minutes
to do a 1:48 out Wells, running to the end zone with the 70
yard, bomb for all staff. Bird and he literally gets blown
out of bounds by a big gust of New York wind and he's out on
the 3-yard line and it turns into a cam Akers, 3-yard Rumble.
I will say, I think you would. I think you would go with the
bit though, David. So actually I'm not rooting for
that outcome because I think he would, you would have fun with
that. I'd find a way I do.
Like this is a team that they always bring in vets and this
and that and at some point this offseason they're going to talk
themselves into still being competitors and bring somebody.
Who was, you know, cut or can be had I know they don't have any
like resources whatsoever but whoever can be had for a fifth
rounder which is something that happens late in the offseason or
it happens in August or they pick up a surprise release off
of waivers and then they just start running them out there
immediately like they did this with Odell.
They probably in the corpse of Allen Robinson, played him.
I don't think these guys have to run routes, actually, I think
they can bring in. I don't know who exactly those
names would be, but it won't be sure I can think of that's in
her division. Yeah, I don't think think they
would trade for hot because I think Hopkins and Adams would
require resources that they don't really have.
And I think they're kind of resetting on the big trades for
pieces and they like letting Ramsey go and they're kind of
resetting on some of the stuff for.
They've been buying a lot of stuff to make the run that they
did last year 2021, but I mean, somebody cheap.
Somebody who's a, you know, a cut that has my Counterpoint to
them reloading. The cabinet is that they spent a
fourth-round pick on Stenson Bennett, which is the most
unserious draft. Nick, I've ever seen
organization, make the 49ers is drafted kicker in the third
round. Immediately a moron seriously.
The 49ers are kind of Shanahan is the least serious.
Head coach, in the NFL, can we all agree on that, like Kyle
Shanahan of coordinating like his plays are so cool?
Why does he? I know but let's go see things
like a child, right? Like it's got like a guy who
would be fucking like going into a vape shop at like, 11:00 a.m.
on a They being like, dude, I fucking ran out last night like
I do it. I got it.
I can't. I gotta get another cartridge,
bro. That is what couch a Mayhem is
to me, just always. Gal braiding.
Always isn't massive mine. Do we have evidence that his
that his plays are not drawn in crayon.
Do we know that for sure? I'm thinking about his dad and
I'm like, his dad was a very serious, man, like I do not
think of his father as being a nun, serious.
Coach at all. No I guess if you just grow up a
rich kid though your chances of becoming unserious like raised
exponentially. Yeah, that's really the bet.
Ya, the Patriots being the cheapest offense.
It's just we've gone over this on.
I think every iteration of this show but it is.
It is the thing that I'm most certain is bound to be wrong.
The Patriots will score points. The Patriots will have multiple
players who finish as fantasy starters to their position.
Mac Jones will probably be more like the quarterback 18, then
the quarterback 37, or what the fuck, ever, he's being drafted
as right now. They have a real offensive
coordinator. That's really it.
It's just last year. They did not have a plan.
Bill, Belichick tried to Raw, Dog.
It like it was 1937, again, when they did actually do this, want
to Brady's years. They didn't have an offensive
coordinator. Actually tried to do this
without an offensive coordinator and it worked out fine because
it was fucking Tom Brady, Matt Jones, not Tom.
Brady doesn't work. You got to have an offensive
coordinator. Feels feels.
Like they'll figure it out. What is the risk that Jones gets
benched? Because that's the one thing
where I think the ATP I think probably overly prices that in,
I think Jones is definitely under priced, but it doesn't
make him like a smash because there's some risk that he gets
bench for Bailey. He's happy, right?
I mean yeah like I so I kind of started out the offseason
thinking that way, but we have not gotten one Bailey's.
Abby, puff piece out of New England's not one not not a you
know, he's in there every day in the facility.
He was throwing with case Shawn Booty, like nothing.
NADA it was floating. They call it when he does it
like, he's floating occasion, on duty.
Right. Exactly.
So I think, I think the, the zappy era, you know, No the
Patriots got zapped for like three games and then that was
it. That's because Monday in
Jefferson you ready for this? Kenyala day, Matthew Stafford
connection. But that is referred connection.
No, he times. What you already got his Mega
deal. Comes in signs for cheap plays
on the outside. As the vertical threat.
We got her back. I never said, this is how I'd
cast, is for entertainment. Only, this is not Financial
advice, literally need with all the caveats now.
Kenny Khalid a result. Yeah.
That's happening. Thank you Davis is gonna Ram the
Rams love guys who were good most recently three years ago,
obviously, Stafford and God I played together in Detroit, I
mean it's it's actually perfect but yes because it is a reason
and the reason it is done I can't move.
I mean we just talked about how bad it is for the Rams like
anyone who was good at any point, he was a pro bowler.
Once that's enough, I think for the radio I want the total Owens
is gonna be the next signing. Yeah, I was traded away kenyala
day in a dynasty league for two first round picks.
Wow. Davison I both going from
tanking to contending in the same year after a three-year
tank for both of us dies. I think, I still haven't got
room to D tank or go back to the tank.
I can I can I can maneuver a little bit I first left.
Yeah, I did not. I did not spend my ammo on a guy
who I think is like 50/50 to be benched at some point in the
next two years. Yeah, I'm going Justin Fields.
Come on baby. Green crate is looking at 28% of
drawbacks not ending in a pass. Attempted be like he's got
nowhere to go but up, baby. All right, what do we got here?
We got 0. So this is that are getting
cheaper. Look at qb1.
Getting a lot cheaper, can't you?
And you also get a cheaper? Yeah, which we did say was
coming forever. Yeah, right.
Yeah. But then I mean is the wide
receiver Market adjusting a little bit on it.
Like actually this is what we said, this is what I said, oh,
they're moving up, the waters, getting even more expensive, am
I? Oh, I'm reading these lines
black lines and current I just read them backwards.
Okay, so in the west, a budding bags are feels like what's
happening weakly? So running backs are getting
cheaper and people are just drafting more wipe.
Do they go? It's weekly change.
On the bottom, the lines are 2022.
ATP, verse current. So running backs are cheaper
this year to last year, but they have gotten a little bit X.
More expensive, as QBs have gotten cheaper in the last
little, right, right. That makes sense but it is
tough. The wide receiver thing.
Like, I'm now drafting on DraftKings, a little bit more
and it's interesting like the wide receivers are cheaper
there. It's a little bit more
traditional and I'm like, okay, I'll draft a little bit more
running backs over on DraftKings like not that I won't go zere
running back there because you can build some really nice.
You're running back teams, but sometimes I'll make sure to get
a running back early because I know I'm going to get like six
seventh round jsn as opposed to, in the fifth.
You know, like I know, I'm going to get these guys later so I can
take my running backs. Early Underdog is so tough
because if you don't get your wide receivers early enough,
there are no backdoor option, you're fucked.
Yeah. It's like like I really hope I'm
getting some spike wigs at a job mechi and Nicole heart.
That's right. It gets so bad.
Take it, a little bit of hard. Then I've taken a little bit.
Aardman I think I meant that could work.
I haven't take Carmen, I'm I'm not.
So he's a part-time player and how do you feel?
How do we just have used this thing?
But his van Jefferson who's not? Because he's on a new team, he's
never been a full-time receiver and he's Not in Aaron Rodgers.
Good graces. Potentially like, oh, but no
2.1, not confident that he's maybe we do know he sucks.
Now he was flashing a little bit last year, honestly, to me to
me, this is the simple thesis. I mean, what it's like up to
team with Aaron Rodgers on it and I'm, you're not going to
degrade me and make me take out my hazard.
But harder than could be an efficiency play.
He theoretically, could be an efficiency play.
That's why I think of the van Jefferson thing.
I think you're playing for Spike weeks.
Like, literally like the definition of Spike week's big
plays, right? Efficient.
I don't think hardman's a bad pick, but I just get nervous.
this when I'm Because he pops in some of this in some of the
stuff that I look at, like his efficiency, I mean, he's been
quite efficient on the field, so He says I got on the field that
Mom just doesn't get on the field and then it's like, OK,
they're not, they may not cut. Corey Davis, and Corey Davis is
just are going to be a route stealer, you know?
Like, I don't want to drive for Davis.
But if Corey Davis is there Allen's art, is there Garrett?
Wilson's there, you know, rabbits on Randall, Cobbs.
They're like, it's a cool Arden's kind of just like he
kind of reminds me of 24 year-old Randall Cobb actually.
Wait, someone here has to go. I mean, Corey Davis, might go
Denzel mems micro these are your starting rims.
Seavers right here other than getting all they could have you
again. Something I was thinking, the
same thing with Corey Davis. I was like, he wasn't he was the
number five pick. He could easily be Aram.
He could be a ram for sure. That's actually yeah.
Why is it Corey Davis? A chief actually honestly while
we're here like that kind of fits their thing to do you like
the product? They like to bring in guys who
used to be good? Corey Coleman is technically a
Chiefs practice squad players by the fact that he's in the usfl
right now. When was Corey Coleman good?
I forget. Oh, he was awesome at Baylor.
He's never had before being drafted.
Yeah, I thought I saw Corey Coleman.
Put up like 180 yards and two touchdowns on stage.
I think I took him second overall in a rookie draft, all
right? So Corey Davis is birthday, is
in January guesses on how old he is.
Twenty eight, nine, he is 28 years old, wow.
Doesn't that feel wildly young? Yeah, yeah, I mean, I've been
angry about Corey Davis for her. Four-year college player.
That's great. Yeah.
He said he should land some are good.
Yeah, I think he could he could be like a solid.
I mean yeah I would take him over van.
Jefferson fear on the ramps. Yeah he's gonna be on the Rams
him Angola day their whole receiver rooms gonna be just
stacked for anyone joining the program.
This is for entertainment purposes only.
So what we're saying is we do you do the Daniel Jones jail and
Hyatt? Matt Stafford, Corey Davis back
door. Yeah.
Okay. What is the, what is the, what
is the actionable thing to do? Right now?
If in terms Crane, in terms of exposures, if we agree, That
they're the market has gotten significantly better at
predicting who's actually going to score points and that there's
this huge drop-off right after let's say, pick just
theoretically pick 110, are you honing in on the guys?
You really like more if the market is better at adequately
projecting points, or are you taking a more Blended approach
where you're just kind of letting drafts lot and random
fallers in your draft? Dictate your strategy. at what
point in the draft, I mean, I think either like I think I
think you could you can hit that both ways were like if the best
players are also all the top points cars in the top 100, is
it better to hone in on the same guys or very those up and and
then post pic 100, give me your thoughts both ways.
So I guess early on I like there's a few guys that I think
are like really badly priced and I'm okay fading those guys
pretty hard because I don't feel Feel confident that I can get
that I can like make up for bad pics later, you know what I
mean? Like if all, if the top 100s and
mostly right then I want to be I don't want to like go all-in,
necessarily take huge stands within that group but I do in
terms of food stands in terms of the guys on targeting.
But I have taken some big stands and guys on guys have a fading
Odell Beckham would be an example of this where like I'm
just not really zero. It'll back them.
Yeah it's like I don't think I can like make up for that.
Is Tony's been a tough? Click for me?
Because I'm like, if it goes wrong, it could go like really
wrong. That one's tougher, because he
does have a ceiling. So I think that's like more a
little more personal preference. But there's and then the other
thing I'm doing is I've are certain like pockets of the
draft where I really don't want to like need a running back.
I really don't want to feel like I need to take mile Sanders or
something. So I'm like working through the
draft in terms of my construction so that I'm like
aligning with the pockets of the draft and that's putting me more
on certain players than other players.
Cuz I'm like, taking more wide receivers like and rounds five
and six, you know, and then I'm taking more of the running backs
in my grounds, you know, 6 7, 8 or whatever.
So there's round 5 running backs.
I don't have a ton of at all, but once you get to the later
picks, I think they're I am kind of willing to take more stands
on the guys that I'm super bullish on because I'm like,
there's guys here that are, you know, potentially to the reasons
that I can make up for a mistake later.
Like, and I think there are There's certain guys that I just
feel like our great pics right now.
You know, like I really like Marvin McD's ATP.
I like, I like Schubert a lot. I like Jim Warren a lot.
You know, there's certain running back from like clear
number two and very low chances that they are that they bring
someone in to compete. So yeah, I'm probably taking
like bigger stands at the end of the draft in terms of targets
and bigger stands in terms of Fades early.
Well, the payoff is way bigger if you get out of the draft,
right? You know, like a tuba.
Hubbard scores a touchdown. Touchdowns this year, something
like massive payoff, you know, right or if Brock Purdy's the
quarterback 11 and you know would just whatever.
Pretty much pretty might be a pretty good pick.
I probably need to mix him in more.
Pretty is or he is a really good pick, but we're back to the, the
fer-de-lance. Yeah, I think it comes up
multiple times in episode. It is what it is.
That's all we have for this week but I'm a newbie.
Okay. So we what are you doing?
So wait, say that again what? I mean I mean I am Stone fading
a lot of guys in the top 100 just like no interest in
clicking them. And but I am taking, I'm trying
to take a more variant approach. Rounds 11 through 15 because
looking back some of the big leaks I've made in my Years
playing fantasy football is when the market goes against me, just
very Only sticking to it and just fucking taking 47%,
Antonio, Gibson, when it becomes clear that Antonio Gibson has no
chance of being the guy that you need.
So like, for example, the Cook charbonnet Brian Robinson,
perine a chain Penny, Harris, Gibson, route.
I'll take some of all those guys.
The only one I'm Stone have zero of is Cleo Herbert because I
think he's maybe the running back three on the Bears,
honestly. And then dude, you haven't been
drafting that much Gretch. I just, let's sit, let's throw
this at grach. Let's throw a Gretsch a live
bullet. It?
See it, see what he would do? Okay, well, this is a thought
exercise. You're alive.
You did an elite quarterback and an elite tight, end draft,
right? So you need some wide receiver.
Help you. You're getting buried by the
wide receiver Avalanche, it is the ninth round.
These are the wide receivers you have available.
These are the services you can procure Odell Beckham, Odell
Beckham Allen Lazard, Tyler Boyd.
Jacoby Myers Darnell Mooney Sky more.
There's a Jones. Who's the next next?
Rookie at a BP. Then next next guy I'm not
taking Jonathan Mingo. Oh, wow.
So like when Johnson those guys already off the board, I'm
taking dude, you know, I'm taking in there and that range
you comes first. I'm probably taking Sky warm.
Wow, no, no, you take rice in her more, I think.
Yeah, I'm rice / more, is way cheaper.
Yeah, rice is rice. Is pick 128 Skies pick. 1/20 off
the name. Has you listed.
I didn't want any of those names, I can at least tell
myself Sky more as here to upside, I really like the thing
that got me back on more a little bit.
This offseason was, I can't remember who wrote about it, but
like basically any reads whole career, he's never had a rookie
do anything receiver? Like they've always kind of
redshirted, yeah, I mean it real lot of confidence when they look
at you. Yeah they drafted they drafted
rice and then they saw he might be the red shirt and more might
be the guy that's been there for a year now and be ready in your
to assortment Hardman played. We're selling the snaps in his
first career game. I don't know.
Buy it Tyreke was hurt right or he got, he got hurt.
Yeah, I was having this argument.
I was having this argument with Amico the other day.
I mean, skate, any any Sky more, if Sky, more, does end up doing
something or whatever it like, it's all hope IAM.
There's nothing you could point to in this sample in the NFL and
be like, it's going to be fine. Oh no, I mean, what is called
profile? You can say, it was a pretty
good Prospect use draft in the second round.
So wasn't, he wasn't, he an overage Prospect, though?
I think over age for a three-year maybe but he's a
thoroughly declare, truly declare.
He's turned 23 in September. He's he wasn't.
Yeah. All right.
I will, I will open the Crypt
for Sky more. I will break the door.
I'm not going to unbury him, but I will open the door to the
model CM so that I can pull them out of the drawer, if need your
ear, if you're burying him with the tube where he can breathe.
So, if you know, not the Bell, that's got the belt too much
life, too much like you still grasping for air, Ethan practice
feet under, it's too much. I think, I think there is a
nonzero chance to Kansas City Chiefs line up against the
Detroit, Lions and week one of the 2023 NFL season and Richie,
fucking James comes and checks in before Sky more.
Well, I know that because I just saw you trade for it to James,
and it's actually, that was actually, that was actually the
centerpiece of the Cooper cup trade was computer.
I'm Richard, James is a really late option.
Why not the Jew rolls open? If Sky more is not it, then it's
Richie jeans, right? Somebody's gotta catch Paddy
rice, rice? Rice is kind of flexible.
You can play to be the answer to all these things, true, true.
It's time. We rethink is okay where he's
gone because he's not, he's not going.
I mean your this is a real Avalanche draft.
We have to take these guys in the ninth round you know their
atheism or whatever. Yeah but the point the point is
that At a range in the draft where you used to feel
comfortable, taking rookie wide receivers that you like like
three years ago, you could have taken, Jordan.
Addison at pick 124. You know, that's true.
That's gone. It's all over.
Yeah. Yeah, that's true.
I mean and maybe we'll get that because Justin Jefferson went in
like the nine ten round range because he wasn't going to start
right away because KJ Osbourne, whoever wasn't cage as more
someone else was running ahead of him, right?
Some some dust bowl and obviously that was a Osborne was
it was the guy who was on the Commander's or whatever the one
Washington algebra alderic. Robinson was it an older
crocodile know. So how is based around trying to
figure out who was who was ahead of Justin Jefferson and then is
ATP fell to the nine ten. As a religion KJ Osborne, I
don't think. So now all the PC Johnson from
contact, do you see? That's what it was?
Yeah. So I do think it is a
first-round pick Addison, Paula need something like always.
He's gonna start out of the slot, he's not into wide
receiver sets because Oz morning I think you probably need that
to fall to the 910 even like two or three years ago but he
wouldn't be going. He's going like six seven now
and as a number to wide receiver on his own team like for sure so
yeah, it's a different ATP environment.
Yeah, yeah, they receive. I just pulled up to look at the
receivers after that. Someone said I would take rice
or Dobbs and those guys go not long after that range, you
talked about Davis and I wouldn't be interested in those
guys. A little later.
Nico goes not long after I like I like all the like, literally.
I just think that range in the draft should be nuked because I
like like about 20 wide receivers better than those
guys. I was just going to say though
I'm with your point broad. Yeah no.
I mean like I also like that point to like, Marvin This is
going way later. I'm looking further and further
down. And I'm like, I mean, why
wouldn't Marvin's going that range?
Like, he's a because, like one of those guys, I think you're
outside the wide receiver window.
I think you've identified the spot where you're no longer
seek. You don't have a lot of ceiling.
You have to take shots on, like, maybe Marvin's is generational.
Yeah, to me, but there's a little bit of a difference where
you get like, I've actually taken Jameson Williams kind of
in that range. He's so tricky for me, he is
tough. But like, if you take him as,
you know, wide Her five. Then, you know, it's like I can
get him. I can pull him along and he at
least has ceiling. He at least has a weekly saying.
I don't love taking him, but I've mixed him in a couple
times. I felt like a little bit behind
and I'm like, well, I'm gonna have to draft, you know, the van
Jefferson's of the world. The the Nico Collins Alec
Pierce, you can get a little later like guys who are gonna be
out there and just to like, try to get me through a little bit
Hunter Renfro, you know, just like helped, get me through
that. Early part of the season.
And then, at least I have some ceiling down the back half with
James, but it's tough. That part of the draft is
really, really tough. Round pick 100.
Yeah. We're I mean are you at where
you at like conceptually with a guy like that?
Who is fucking suspended for six games?
Would put more money in the regular season?
Yeah, I think that is kind of interesting.
I wish he was cheaper because I don't want to have zero of him
because he could so totally be the guy you need and week 17
like honestly, but I just don't like taking a guy who's locked
into six weeks of zeros. Yeah, but stuff.
If I was going to say wet right after this range, I do think
James is probably before this wide receiver window concept,
but right after this range, I was looking at the other 80
pieces, like I feel like it's got to be the strike zone for
running back and most built so it is.
Yeah, it very much is. I want Richard penny in a 114
ATP compared to all those receivers that question.
You asked me Davis, like, I want Richard Penny over Sky.
Moreover, all those guys, I want some angers perine at 109 like
I'm in a both those vets where they landed It's like, you know,
ambiguous back fields and this is the reason I have a hard time
with going to running backs a lot early.
It is something I'm doing like a lot more than I ever have, you
know, wide receiver, running back running back.
I've done that already probably more times in my entire life.
This year I've like already doubled up my exposure to that
start because it is kind of unique, I think, or at least,
you know, very atypical for you to be able to get two really
strong running back, but it's and rounds two.
And then three, But I also like trying to get an early
quarterback and I like trying to get an early round tight end,
especially with the prices falling after last year
significantly. You can get Kyle pits and Dallas
got her in the sixth round. I think both those are really
strong values. You can get Mark Andrews in the
third, you know, like sometimes the late 3rd like he's I think a
awesome pic there. So, there's like The Kill, still
going in the fifth. After being, like the guy you
needed in last year's playoffs and potentially having pretty
all season. I mean, kittel could absolutely
fucking smash it, fits around. DP.
So, all right, I've got two running backs.
I've got a quarterback, and I've got an elite tight end.
I'm already kind of dead at wide receiver, I'm already dead.
So you got to figure out what to to sacrifice from that other
group, you just listed. And I think it's one of the
running backs. Yeah.
And then you because what happens is, then you can still
get four wide receivers through seven which hate and Winks is
called his Golden Rule and I think is more important maybe
than ever to do that and that how bad the drop off is and then
you can still get that, you know, and a wide receiver 5
type, you know, four things get too crazy.
Like you can grab a Sutton or a Michael Thomas or abatement
right as your wide receiver five before the draw, the cliff
really hits and then you're perfectly set up for that next
pocket of the draft. The UN talk any Damien Harris.
We talked about Antonio Gibson, we talked about go right after
that. There's a lot of attraction or
been a, I really like Dylan and I think it's pretty interesting.
Like sure, no, he's like fairly he's definitely got some talent
and could help you out right away.
Huge contingent value, Damien Harris, I mean with a different
Be there. Take some of the pieces until
last year was a might do more both the backs out there.
Aaron Jones has a year older different quarterback.
They might actually do more of that this year and like, it's a
little post type from that theory, but the idea that Dylan
could have some 25 carry games as big physical back, probably
more practical with Jordan, love the quarterback and they were
just like, hey this is all we can get going in this week and
we're going to just keep giving the ball to doing Aaron Johnson.
Took a pay cut to stay with the team, probably his last year
there, I would assume any to pull this.
On track before saying that but yeah I mean he's super good, but
they also use him as a receiver and stuff.
There's a reason both those guys were going even higher are
people out on AJ, Dylan just because he liked had a dip in
performance last year, but like he still might be the
quadfather, right. That's exactly the debate right
now. I mean at 105 ATP I think the
argument is there out. And then that what you just said
is just y to be in. Like, you might say this is my
father. This is why structure works,
right? Because if AJ Dillon moves up
into the rain, Where you're having to sacrifice one of the
last viable wide receivers, then I'm out, but is he's if he's in
a Range were wide receivers happen to completely crater,
right? I'm in, you know, it's like what
am I what's the opportunity cost and right now?
Dylan's kind of past the point where there really is that much
opportunity costs kind of like, maybe I'm trying to make sure I
don't get locked out at quarterback with the two
quarterback build, but otherwise, like I've probably
either taking a tight end or am waiting at tight end.
End. Like, I don't mind the titans of
that range. But there's just, I want to just
be sitting here in this pocket and be able to fire a couple
running back picks and most drafts, it's pretty pretty nice
pocket for running back by the only thing I would say I agree
with all that I was just about to say some most important
pocket of every draft but then I would say that I that's how I
draft have drafted over the last couple years is sort of trying
to identify that vegetable window and making that very
important and being probably to concentrate because I think
that's what led to me. Not having like basically any
Josh Jacobs last year for example.
So, Are some running backs that get a little bit too pricey into
that last area of the receivers that we do still want to get
some exposure to. But yeah, I mean once the
receivers dry up, I think running back is the superior
pick. That's the bill be okey.
This is one of the reasons why I think you know in saying it's a
good thing. Sam's not here to hear me say
this but I think this is my reasons.
It's zero running back still completely viable in this ATP
environment. Even though you know you're you
are looking at really nice and a typical values and potentially
values. It won't be around later in the
in the offseason. Even on like a Tony Pollard and
a reminder Stephenson. And adjust Jacobson the Nick
Chubb and a Derrick Henry, write all these guys right around that
kind of two, three turn area. But you can skip those guys and
one of the reasons I think you can is that you can go get like
a Damien Pierce, right? You can go get some of these
guys that are going to probably move up in value.
Joe Mixon right mix-ins. Either going to be way more
expensive or way cheaper but now if you want to make that bet you
can go get those guys as your rb1 and I that one in the less
that is one of the lessons. To me of last year with Josh, I
think a kers could be an rb1, we talked about Madison having some
paths. I mean, even like going back to
the James Conner. Well, as like the start of a 0,
RB build. That's the area we just doesn't
totally. Yeah.
There's still some wide receiver Targets in those areas, but
those are guys that you can see as being very viable running
back picks as well. Like, if you're gonna have a,
this year's Josh Jacobs, I don't know who would possibly be
obviously, that's hard to figure out in that guy doesn't always
emerge, but I mean, maybe. It's you know an Acres could
have that possibility if he can get back to the way, played a
couple years ago. And I feel like late last year
when he got to about the 18-month post Achilles, he
started to look like that player again which are it's supposed to
be like an 18 month recovery process.
I didn't expect him to be good early in the year.
I was feeding him and drafts what I saw in December.
I was actually intrigued by and I'm a little intrigued by acres
for this year for that reason. Yeah, and I think if we were
expecting running back, atp's to move up, we're going to expect
them to move up throughout the draft.
And so this pocket, where you can sit back and get some of
these like like legitimate week. One starters at a range of the
draft where like the opportunity cost is has gone down at wide
receiver. I mean, I think there's a bit of
a drop-off around that round 5 range.
So if you're, you know, potentially there's there's more
weird shit and ambiguity because there are multiple That could be
impacted by a suspension or Ezekiel Elliott Leonard,
fournette, or Curry Mont being signed there to.
Like there's there's there's a lot of room.
I mean, you could you could tell me Right now that you have the
knowledge of foresight and that Kareem hunt sign somewhere and
had 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns and I'd be like, I
don't know. Yeah.
Probably like could totally happen.
I think he needs a backfield that gets hollowed out by
injuries. Yeah.
But that's going to happen. I mean the one thing I can say
with certainty is that I don't know which team it's going to be
but there are going to be multiple backfield impacted by
the preseason injuries. Yeah, I mean, member the Ravens
a few years ago or Dobbins went down Gus Edwards went down and
Yeah. And the first time Justice Hill
but he was over it. Ya dice on Williams was the weak
one. Oh my God.
And he wasn't even the answer. Yeah, it was like he was fond of
Freeman. He killed it for a touchdown and
then he blew a pass block in the like the first drive of the
second half against the Raiders got Lamar.
Absolutely smoked. And we never saw him again, ever
some games, the table and The foreman?
Yeah. Want to format.
It was yeah. I'm anna-marie premium.
Yeah, yeah. All right.
So we should we land the plane here.
What Gretchen, we didn't tell you this.
I don't know if you're aware, but we each pick an ATP Riser,
pick an ATP Riser. Oh, that's gonna be gonna be a
new Riser. You pick someone that's going to
rise in value from here. Sure.
Sure, I can go for next week, just in the next know, by the
end of the bright spot in the offseason, isn't it?
Yes. Yeah, yes.
Oh so we're trying to bank some clothing line value.
We're also trying to give people good pics but the the game that
we're playing, I teach too much. Don't you did what?
I cheated a couple weeks ago, Jerick McKinnon like, just got
signed and I use Jerick McKinnon as my Sylvie.
I'm gonna pick, I know who I want to do my pick.
It was who I started the show. Kind of taking you guys on a
15-minute drive, but Madison is risen a ton, but Ty Chandler and
the way McBride's are not moving up for the exact same reasons
about Dalvin, cook potential release, and I think they should
also be moving up. Well, I got to pick one though,
because this is, this is why they're not moving up.
No one knows. I don't think I'll take Tai
Chandler. I think because he's got a
little bit more three down profile.
That I would, I would take and silver, especially hearing the
silver. Hasn't rained are B44.
It's all Lock to move up that point.
Yeah, that's a great point. He's moving up because it's
almost got him way out of anything.
So I'll cheat. Like Davis did like the others.
All right, go ahead. You think you can go where you
want me to go? Well, I have one.
So, okay, this one is not. I don't think all that sharp
from like just trying to play the game because I'm not sure
that he moves up. But Kyle pits man, Kyle pits in
the sixth round. This isn't this is Otto.
No, I do. You want to like I agree with
you. I'm totally with you.
But this is your, this is not a good selection for the game.
Yeah, it's bad. You know what, you know what
Davis I'm here. Trying to help the people.
Okay. Yeah, to help them with.
Clv not a take. This is, this is, this is a guy
who you look at Chris's. Chris has your rebuttal, how can
you possibly pick pets when Chris is completely, right?
Kyle, pets is trash. What great Chris bucket, Chris
fucking Zapped your ass dude. I hope it's is Ben, he did.
Come on Fitz, I'm gonna try to dig out.
I'm six feet under with the air hole.
Now look at Kyle pits one of the best tight and Prospects of all
time had 1026 yards as a fucking rookie 2.0, two yards per
outrun, paid off a ridiculously high ATP.
Then he, at this point, he's the cheapest he's ever been, he's
coming off a year. Yeah, it's not a great.
Year, he still was fairly efficient on a per hour basis.
One point six, nine yards per hour on, is it 1.92 now for his
career, that's pretty good. For a third-year player who with
a super high pedigree who has tight end eligibility and we're
looking at a team that was historically run-heavy.
Last year, particularly when Mariota was under Center, we
don't have to deal with that. They have a couple, like, very
thin outs for quarterback play. I think they would be maybe a
destination for Lance. They would be maybe Tannehill,
although the Titans probably keep him, but I also just think
like, they might maybe not like so deranged with their place
election this year, with Ritter compared to Mariota, because we
already saw that a little bit and like Honest to God, you just
need him to have a few Spike weeks and he can pay off this
ATP because the tight end position.
Generally, you just don't get that many Spike weeks like
you're competing against ring with the take on the player.
It's is the market going to buy it?
Yeah, I don't know but but I think you want to be overweight,
Kyle pits and I think taking this, even if he doesn't
increase, like if he's a seventh-round pick in August,
okay? I will have 45 percent cow pits.
I'm Fuck, I'm pretty that 45 but I mean, I'm good with 45%
cockpits. If he falls around in value, I
will make that stand. I think this is the type of
Stan. You want to make incredibly
talented player. Has already flashed multiple
times plays a position where there's very little upside, you
know, outside of a few guys. And guess what?
When you have two million dollars, burning a hole in your
Underdog account, you can make these types of things you can.
You can bet on regression, you can bet on regression, right.
And there's other people suffered through 2022 with
calpads, pretty pretty Heavily. It was not it was not so good
for the bank account. But that was a that was a two,
three turn ATP. The difference between that ATP
and the sixth round is massive and that there is already I
think a tear break at wide receiver in this range, you're
already like coming back, it's already dudes.
You're not feeling super good about the six rounds Jason's
gone. Oh no, let's move on because I
haven't drafted yet. I'm going to be going to Oregon
a couple weeks. Let's not blow up cowpats ATP.
Yet. Can I get a few shares first?
Do like that? There's no enthusiasm from you
because Cuz you agree with me. Yeah, I don't want, I don't have
anything to talk you off of this thing.
Nothing. Nothing stick Under Wraps.
Nothing we say is going to people have made their minds up
about Kyle. Peck gave me, hope, I hope and
coming from us. Like, we're not gonna be able to
move Kyle pits up anymore. That we're part of that horrible
experience. We're part of the Kyle pits
industrial complex for sure. No one's gonna listen to us on.
Scowl just guy war, or any of that stuff, like, no way.
Well, I hope they listen to me and I hope they, I hope they
don't go into the light with Sky more.
Hope that I hope that you I hope they go the right direction.
I am gonna select Malik. Davis running back to for the
Dallas Cowboys. Pretty sure I'm basically the
same thing, then just did. Yeah, you gotta keep playing
this game. Well, I'm just, I'm just
pounding the wall but I'm actually taking Bleak Davis.
Like I'm actually drafting a shit ton of Malik Davis because
I just I've gained it out really the same thing we did with Row.
Joe last year is we realize that he's not going to be active on
like once the Pacheco stuff started happening, so Raja Is
not going to be active on game days for special team.
So if he's the running back to, he's really got to be the
running back to God, love dues, van God, love this wall, running
back, favorite player in the NFL, very cool story, but he's
not big enough to play special teams.
So again, if he's going to make the team, he's really got to
make the team. I actually think the most likely
thing is that Pollard Vaughn and Davis are the game-day active
zandro. Joe is the break glass in case
of emergency same way. He was And the city all of which
to say, obviously this all gets submarine, if Ezekiel Elliott re
signs, there you go. But I think I think even so even
if in the city so zikri signs, I still think Zeke is the, or I
still think Willie Davis would be active as the third guy for
special teams because he was all of last year and I mean Zeke
sucks. I got he's a material, I don't
care about him anymore, Luke Davis looks good, like he looks
like he has some juice when he's out there.
Yeah he's just smaller than I thought he was.
He plays a little bit bigger but to look him up this offseason
and to find out that he's like 2005.
I was a little bit bummed. I thought he was a little bit of
a bigger pack like he's not going to fill the Zeke role in
any scenario. A to the fuck 2005 though some
of these lights are out of date. Yeah.
I mean he looked he looked bigger.
Yeah. Maybe as put on weight, it's
good call. Yeah.
All right guys. All right this is fun.
This was fun little old to our 10 min Edition.
Yeah, well we got you out of here, early Gretch.
Yeah. Anything to plug before we get
here. No, it's not a projection stuff.
It's dealing signals. I sent out a post about looking
back at my old projections yesterday.
I thought that was actually kind of an interesting bit of
research. I had done it previously at CBS
but not for a few years look at and how hard it is to get stuff
right on the team level and on, you know, on Project in a lot.
And I showed how a lot of my projections, followed the market
expectation, but yet you still way off and a lot of cases, it's
a good reminder, right now. I think when you're drafting all
these things were talking about, what we Spect that of these
teams could be wrong on about half the teams typically by a
good margin. So like being a little girl,
brain isn't crazy. And now we've been plenty of
Galbraith today. So it's a good reminder to be to
be willing to be loose. It is a good reminder.
I think like stuff happens in the end if we talk about that
with, you know, the chaos as it applies to the running back
position. But the chaos applies to a lot
of other things as well. So, I can are fine for like last
week I think or two weeks ago about the Ravens at the end of
it. 20:21 season when they were huge past funnel and you never
would expect that. But it was injuries.
Right injuries to the secondary to the defense.
Yeah, there's going to be some stuff like that, where certain
teams end up being completely different than what we expect
even if they didn't plan to be. Yeah, so I love that.
All right, guys. Watch if Jason was tonight, I'll
see you later.