It just kept spinning out. It's still spinning are.
We better off like sort of dumping and rejoining maybe.
Maybe. It's probably, it's probably my
fault. It's probably my connection.
Oh, we're live. Hi from Grand Island, NY between
Buffalo and Niagara Falls. First laps in the books.
I'll take it. Get it back to the back door.
Chilly today, but sunny. Sunny in New York State for more
than one reason. Underdog is back as of last
Thursday night. I was not that I would know
anything, but not expecting that realized immediately, not on my
game. We're working on that here in
the last just less than a week. Of course, Basketball Mania
season on Underdog well underway now that we've had the schedule
for a week, which stacks are optimal, which are tough.
I've got a couple of guys that I'm having a tough time with,
which are maybe too easy, could be more, you know, too popular.
We'll, we will talk to the experts, our heroes.
Pat, Corinne Davis Maddock, Jacob Sanderson.
Here we go. ADP chasing.
I'm Mike Shope. It is May 20th, 2025.
In Underdog Best Ball, ADP is set by two separate yet equally
important groups. Streamers that set the market
and the slappies that chase it. These are their stories.
Hey guys, you want to play a game?
One SEC, yeah. Been cleaning out my basement.
I found this now. Apparently it's this one.
This one. Can you tell us what that is for
the audio listeners? They need to be serviced.
Thank you. Yes, I appreciate that reminder.
Madden 98, it's in the game. It's only one disc is it is in
the. Box A Sports.
It's in the game. We've got this for those
inclined to play NHL 96 instead. Wow.
Hell yes. I don't know if I've told you to
show up, but I I grew up playing NHL 95 on my dad's Sega Genesis
and that that game absolutely ruled. 94 I think was my first.
It might have been the first, I don't know.
That's three games on that Genesis.
There's NHL 95 Jack Nicholas Power Challenge, which was a
golf game far predating the Tiger Woods series, and then the
original Sonic the Hedgehog, of course, that you couldn't save.
So like, if you wanted to beat the whole game, you just had to
play it all day long. There was no save function.
That's that's a wrench in things right there, yeah.
Yeah. Do you guys remember?
No, maybe not. Maybe this is too far to go.
Do you remember the game Lakers versus Celtics?
No, that was my first. Familiar with those two teams,
but. Yeah, one of them especially one
just sort of maybe my only NBA game I've really loved and it
would have had maybe six other teams in it back in the days
were at the arcade. They would have that one
baseball game. It would just be the the one
that is that Sega that they did the remake of the 10th inning of
the 86 World Series Mets Red Sox.
That's amazing. Like you just have sort of the
three letter name of the team Texas, Boston, whatever going
too far back now I think. But Jacob, if I may just
satisfy, satisfy the puck chasing quota quickly.
What do you? What do you?
What are your thoughts on Marner?
Mitch Marner, star player for the Leafs.
They don't come through in the playoffs again headed for free
agency. Like they didn't.
I was. I wasn't aware.
Yeah, sorry to. Break I I like the Trump.
I'm like, oh, I, I I just found out about that.
What a brutal game, Jacob. Yeah, I didn't.
I didn't enjoy it. It wasn't fun.
Yeah, Yeah, it was. It was definitely like the
worst. It was like up there in the
worst three hours of my life. Like I don't know if you guys
know, but I was there. So it.
Was you were there? Yeah, You didn't know that.
Yeah, it was. It was.
It was horrific. I didn't throw my jersey on the
ice so that, you know, I kept my jersey off my purse and at all
times I wasn't wasn't prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
To answer your answer your specific question on Marner,
like I don't know my my take on Marner.
Like I don't think is popular among Leafs fans.
Like most leaf fans think that by getting rid of him and
getting nothing returned magically all of our problems
will be solved. I don't.
I think that we should have tried to trade him two years ago
when he didn't have a no movement clause, and I think
that Dubis would have traded him two years ago, but Shanahan
didn't want to, so he fired Carl Dubis and gave Troll Living a
mandate to keep the Core 4 together.
Then we tried to do the deal at the deadline this year for
Renton, which would have been fantastic if we had done it.
I don't really blame him for not treating as no movement clause.
He negotiated it. His wife was seven months
pregnant. I can see why he didn't want to
move with a seven months pregnant wife.
I don't think that makes him like a horrible villain.
I would gladly resign him at this point because the other
option is like probably trying to replace him in the aggregate
by signing two $7,000,000 players who are are probably
very unlikely to be as good as him combined.
But I don't think that's what's going to happen.
I think. I think it's probably all sides
are moving on and it's just a matter of how incompetently we
spend spend the cap space that it gives us, probably pretty
incompetently. Your sports life is not too
dissimilar to mine in Buffalo. The Bills and the Sabres
forever, no championships. You do have the Manning year, I
mean the Manning era, which was great, and the Celtics, but
thinking about Leafs, even Vancouver, Winnipeg, if that's
appropriate, I don't know. It's like you sort of, you know
the, you know the taste. Apparently means nothing to me
that I have no attachment in the Vancouver teams.
I the Winnipeg Blue Bombers were, have been, you know,
they've been 55 strict rate caps and they've only won two of
them. So that's been nice.
But right, you know the test I want to get.
You have this topic I want to get.
The You have this Celtics. Yeah, that's been going well
lately. Although yes, I did get two
titles out of that in my life so can't can't complain.
I should have really complain the Celtics.
Pat your thoughts on the Marner conundrum?
I mean, Speaking of hockey, I wish I had some hockey
projections to to fiddle with while that happened.
When will legendary upsides start diving into hockey?
I never tried meditating until just now.
You'll have all the answers now. That's well.
To sleep. You know, it's a good test for
Pat underdog. So Thursday I get home from work
there it is the tweet we're back in New York.
I don't follow like the legal side of things, but I didn't
think that was likely. But it happened and then I
realized I was way out of shape would not did not even have the
the courage for like a fast draft.
I just did 20 slows. We'll we'll take this slowly
literally. And I don't know, Pat, like what
what is your overview so far a week from the schedule about how
this year is, how it compares with other years?
Is it more challenging, you know, building teams the way you
want or not? In some ways, it's a lot like
last year where the wide receivers are still really
expensive. And so I think it's like
creating similar sort of, you know, like last year the running
backs were a bit better than we expected.
And then how much of that is because some of them stayed a
little healthier versus the pricing kind of changing the way
we want to build teams. So a bit.
And that's kind of the the question I'm wrestling with.
I one thing that's tricky for me is if you don't start with
receivers early, like like first round early, it can be you feel
like, well, I don't like, I just a weaker team now.
You know, it's tough to, as much as I do like some of the running
backs in the first round, I tend to be a little comfortable when
I go receiver because there are kind of running back
opportunities. And then if you look at like the
dead zone, you know, like where we expect kind of these these
profiles not to be very good. There's some profiles I think
are OK from the veterans, but then also there's like RJ Harvey
and Trayvon Henderson. Quintron Judkins is on the 6th
round. So the strength of the rookie
class is the running backs. And we know even from, you know,
when Ben Gretch was writing about the, the dead zone in
2019, even then he's like, well, if there's actually upside
profiles here, we want to take them.
And so we were getting, we're getting that this year as part
of the reduced pricing at at the running back position that is
kind of maintained even after last year's running back
success. Davis, your thoughts on that, by
the way, you want to explain your your situation?
So my my power went out. No idea why there were tornadoes
last week. My power's been fine.
I was right in the middle of a end game syndicate round table
an hour ago and my power just popped out.
So I am on the the hotspot from my phone right now powering
through. My thoughts on that are Hayden
Winks always does this great research, both, you know, back
looking descriptive data and predictive data.
And the golden rule has been you need 4 wide receivers at the end
of the seventh round. And last year the optimal number
of wide receivers to have drafted at the end of the
seventh round was 0. You were you were better off
having had having had zero wide receivers at the end of seven
rounds. And that includes Jamar Chase's
legendary season, right? You were still better on average
to have selected a running back, quarterback or tight end in all
of those rounds instead of a wide receiver.
And you do see that creeping into people's draft strategies,
right? Joe Mixon Classic would have
been an eighth round pick before a 29 year old guy who got her
bad offensive line. He's a fifth round pick.
Frankly, I think you even see the thirst with Quin, Shawn
Judkins, an early down grinder on a bad team in the sixth
round. I think you see it with Harvey.
Old old US would have like Harvey would have been oh what
like an upside dart in a backfield with Estimae and
Jaleel in in round date. No immediate fifth round pick
type stuff. Weirdly, I think the biggest
discounts relative to what I expected the market to have done
are Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs.
I I believe that I believe that. I don't think that's weird.
They would be first round fixed. I, I don't think that's weird
because the, you know, the wide receiver heavy market from last
year was a, a creation by the Slappies.
And now the Slappies have been told, you know, that they have
to, to draft more running backs. And the Slappies have said, OK,
but we're going to do it with slappy running backs.
So, so the Slappies are like, we're, I have to draft the
running back. Like I will draft RJ Harvey.
I guess I will draft whatever. But like there's, they're not
going to make us draft Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor.
So we will, we will do it, but we will do it on our terms, I
want to say. I'd give the market a little
more credit than I mean, I think, I don't think Josh Jacobs
and Jonathan Taylor are first round type of profiles.
I mean, these, these are the, these are the first round
profiles that made running backs not go in the first round like
they used to. Like these, these are the guys
to avoid at that type of price tag.
And so you're getting a discount that I think is warranted.
I think they're both pretty efficiently priced here, but
like I was just pulling up FFPCFFPC is Jonathan Taylor at
pick 21 and Josh Jacobs at pick 23.
And those guys have never been accused of not like the running
backs. So I think that, you know, the,
the, that market has been influenced by the kind of the,
the, the rising wide receiver prices and the following running
back prices as well, but not to the same extent.
And like they have RJ Harvey at pick 58.
So Harvey I actually do think like because of the opportunity
in front of him, the I feel like in in 2020 he would be, maybe
he'd be 1/6 rounder, but I don't think he's like actually that
crazy to be in the 5th. You're getting an upside in the
opportunity. To be clear what I'm saying, the
slappies are X. I'm just describing what I think
is the appropriate. For sure.
OK guy, I I am. The slap call is coming from
inside. The house.
So like, I'm not, I'm not mocking the slappies, I'm I'm
just describing my process. Thank you.
That could that could be a slogan for this show.
Actually, I'm I'm not. Mocking, not mocking the
slappies driving. My process, but the I don't
know, I, I think I wish that it was a bigger overcorrection,
frankly, because I, I do. Think yeah, me too.
I I think two things. One is that like the no wide
receivers for seven being optimal is like not true.
I don't, I don't care if that's like what it says over the
course of like how that is done. The, the optimal thing
ultimately in this contest is like not tied at all to like
what your points of a replacement are over a 17 week
period. It's what you're able to do
within playoff weeks. And that relies on having an
opportunity to generate sealing at all four of the positional
groups. So I, I, I completely reject
that. Like we should be using season
long points above replacement to evaluate basketball strategies
in the 1st place. I, I think that it is describing
something that's not the actual game we're trying to play.
And so you need to be able to generate position, generate
ceiling simultaneously at all four positions.
The reason why we were willing to sacrifice projected points in
the 1st place by deferring some of these running back points is
it there is tends to be a more predictable projectable path to
running back ceiling from late round picks because of
contingency. When you're getting ceiling from
late wide receiver picks, more often than not that's randomly
distributed. You're usually not walking into
a week looking at your DraftKings projections and
saying oh that this player that I got in the 15th round is $7200
on DraftKings today. So I, I, I think even if you
take away sort of the zero RB lean of that, you want to remain
to some extent balanced in that you, you have to generate
ceiling at the wide receiver position.
You have to start three of them. So if you just ignore them for
eternity, I, I think you're going to really struggle to do
that in three individual playoff weeks.
And then so, yeah. And the other aspect is, is the,
the injuries and, and some of the stuff last year that I think
was somewhat random. So, yeah, I wish that we were
like right back to the 2021 economy and, and we could just
go, you know, 0 RV through it. But but no, I, I don't know.
I, I would say that I think this, this economy is reasonably
efficient and I've probably been drafting a variety of teams
based on what the room asks me to do.
Like I I haven't been looking at this year's economy going.
I need to draft 80% zero RB teams or 80% robust RB teams or
anything like that. It really does depend on the
room, but I mean I think you can go like 0 RB.
The definition is, is kind of, you know, up for debate, but I
think you can easily. Sean didn't even win with his
zero RB team. Dude.
Jamal Charles was on it, bro You don't.
Even know Matt. Matt tilt people power.
Are you here? The power is on at Davis's
house, I think. I'm pretty sure he's back.
It's good. Good to see it's it's not I'm
still on my phone. But like 4/4 four straight non
running backs, even 5, I think is is pretty pretty solid.
It's just that like I'm hitting I'm hitting running back more in
like rounds 4-5 and six. Then I'm then like feels right.
But it's but the prices all change like you know, it's the
profiles that are dead zone, not the rounds. 100%, yeah.
James Conner is a probably just a better pick than Jerry Judy,
right? And like old slap version of
yourself would be Judy can't get buried by the avalanche.
But like sometimes you got to just take the points.
I think that's right. Our first slide of the day,
thank you Zach, is the schedule. I very much enjoyed ship chasing
Thursday with the mnemonic not a word I've seen or said in a long
time devices for each game. Pete was coming with some my my
review. Pete was coming with some, you
know, alpha Galaxy brain sort of ideas and the chat was on board.
And then you had Pat Pat was like this is a rematch from week
16 or something, sort of like very at a linear and Davis at
one point said I'm not good at this this Thursday.
So it was definitely fun to watch.
At all. Some of these are just like the
South Florida Bowl, and then the others are just like entirely
ridiculous, like things that are so.
I I've. Duval, all the consourses.
Sure, I got it. Yeah, yeah.
I've done this for few years. I think you want that.
You want some mix of like, you know, South Florida Bowl, easy
to remember. And then you've got, you know,
Cowboys versus commies, like, you know, just easy ones.
But then you have ones that like either give you a a picture in
your mind or, you know, just stick in your ear like Duval the
King's horses. It's, it's insane.
It's. In my mind now.
Why did why did Laird not make the graphic for Timmy Bay Miami?
I, I'm, I'm truly disappointed in in the chasers, it's the
Laird Bowl. Yeah, yeah.
I'm never going to do better than just remembering the teams
next to each other. Tampa Bay, Miami is the only way
I'm going to be able to remember it.
It's it's really it's. Not helpful to to have that,
that like kind of go to even as a secondary thing.
No, and I don't know why. I don't know why, but for me
it's just linking the it's the letters like this.
It'd be linking the teams together, Steelers, Browns.
I mean, that's I'm going to have to, I'm going to have to get
home with that. If you're struggling, if you're
like, what? What is that one?
Do you think about, oh, the turd bowl?
You know, Brown's turd, Aaron Rodgers Turd bowl?
I would never but I I like the graphics the.
Graphics. I do, too.
That's Zach Landers once again. I'm so hungry right now.
Get that? Philly.
Buffalo One. I know it's good, right?
4/25 Sunday. Christmas week I'm actually
starving because last night I I flew home from Toronto and then
I I doordashed some dinner, but I had been at my friend's place
two nights prior and I forgot to change the address so I just
doordashed passed it to my friend and then I just starved
all night. So I really want those blowings.
We do have a mixture of, we do have a mixture of some of the
ones you guys came up with on Thursday and some new
contributions. So very nice.
Honestly the best ones were listener or discord submissions.
Call of Duty, Excellent. Yeah, that's.
Good, also known as Cardinals, Bengals.
Drake's Drake's on a plane that was from the leg up discord like
last minute. Like we were like all set,
everything's gone. And then I I messaged Zach and I
was like, we got to change the fats.
Drake's on the plane is so good. That one I will remember.
That's so good, I'm going to remember it.
Call of Duty I, I have seen some people not getting it.
It's obviously T Higgins. Kyler plays Call of Duty and T
Higgins plays for the Bengals. Yeah.
Tyler plays like way too much Call of Duty.
Like they tracked his performance against the Call of
Duty release schedule and it goes down.
It's too much of A path for me. For some, like even the plain 1
is OK. That's The Jets.
That's why OK, it's a movie. Yes, there's a movie and it's a
plane's a jet. Well, that happens.
Drake, it's. Drake.
I got it. I got it.
That's it. You don't got to like, think
about Sam Jackson's IMDb page. You know, you're you're going
too far to Jackson. No, that's still more like, how
about this idea, Patriots Jets? How about this idea?
I think it's I don't like, I don't understand how your brain
works. Don't treat.
Jets to help you remember. That like that's really good
remembering stuff show I think that might be the problem.
I don't know, maybe I'm good at it, maybe I'm bad at it.
Dice, Dice and darts is is the one that I remember the most for
whatever reason. That's a good one.
I mean, it's just, it's just really good.
Yeah. Dice and darts.
That's the Giants and the Raiders.
All right. Dice is Vegas Darts.
Yeah, OK. Sure.
I get it. Can we do everyone?
I'm not going to get tired of this.
I feel like the tuba. How about Hawk tuba?
What do you think about that? I like that one.
Yeah, I like that one. OK, that one just clicks for
you. Also there was a Seattle
Carolina playoff game that Carolina got up 42 to nothing a
few years ago and and held on to win so.
You're just too good at remembering stuff.
I. Don't know there was.
Also there was also one in Seattle a little bit before that
Cam through like a back breaking pick sex.
What about sun gods? That took me a long time to
figure out. That that I knew because I
remember like, I can't remember what podcast we were on recently
when I realized that every player on these two teams.
Every player has the the Nordic or the the Scandinavian ending
to their name. Yeah.
So Justin Jefferson. Hawkinson.
Jefferson Hawkinson, Addison. That's the Vikings.
Hutchinson. Has the sun God?
Jameson. Jameson, Yeah.
Oh, here we go on him. Oh God, I can't do this with
these guys. Who someone had a good someone
had a good comment to one of my tweets this week that said
actually people don't know this little known fact, but Ben
Johnson Leven actually makes Jameson Williams slower.
It actually adds 1/10 of a second.
To a 40. Time.
Oh well, in that case I'm more into him.
So, Ben. Jordan.
Jordan Mason. Also a little run around.
Ben Johnson, Who's on the Bears? So who was The Who was the game?
The Bears and the Lions. No.
Come on, you guys. Come on, John Norton.
That one, that one hit for me immediately because they all
have the same suffix to their to their last name.
Detroit. Jefferson, Addison.
Hawkinson, Mason. Yeah.
That's still the one team. Yeah, that's.
Still one, but the other one's name.
Means sun God. Yeah, OK.
He's not buying it. I I got it not.
Buying it? Just Detroit, Minnesota.
Have you guys just considered remembering Detroit at
Minnesota? That's what I'm saying about.
That's right. Have you just thought about
that? I want to be honest, I don't
think I'm going to have any difficulty remembering Detroit
and Minnesota given it's like going to have a total of 54 and
being a dough. I think that.
One. I bet, I bet it'll be higher.
I bet, I bet by week 17 this this will be the highest totaled
regular season game in NFL history.
This will it'll be, it'll be 56 and a half 57.
Yeah, like that one's not going to be a struggle for me.
The ones that are tough are always like, oh, I took a brown
by accident. Like who do they play?
That's that's like the tougher part for sure.
What about bow and arrow show? Science.
Good. Yeah, I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna
sit around and try to lock in my mind.
Tenix gets horny and remember that what that means.
And I feel like that one sticks in your mind.
Yeah, let's hope it doesn't. That's also a really That's some
good graphic work. That one that that one was mine
after I kind of we had a Penix Penix staph infection, I think.
And and I was like that, but it's got to be a little bit
better. So I went to, I went with Tenix
like. If this in the early stages, we
would have just called that the Raheem Morris Bowl.
But I really love that you you've gone further into into
things that are are just completely.
Big big dog in the frozen tundra is better than Ravens.
Packers on Peacock probably. On Saturday night, probably.
See. Look, you're just too good at
remembering, you know, I'm. Not.
I'm not. I'm not bragging.
I'm just trying to if.
You already have like every piece of information in your
brain. You don't need the big dog in
the frozen tundra. We're trying to.
We're trying to use mnemonics to get that information to stick in
our brains. OK, OK.
You know you know the exact start time on the network.
Well, I I might. It hasn't been announced yet,
but I'm guessing that's the game they want for Peacock.
You want to go to risers. And hell, I'm remembering
bourbon versus Broadway. That can be a top, remember.
I agree. I agree that one's terrible.
At least you don't need that game probably or I don't know,
Saints, Titans 2. Two of three teams that did not
get a single night game meeting in Week 17.
Outdoors Week 17. Brutal.
I guess both of those things like were were part of like
Roman culture, right? Saints and Titans.
That helps. Sure.
Yeah, that that's going to get me there.
Titans are more Titans are more Greek culture.
They're more Greek. Than Roman, than Roman culture.
I think that's right, yeah. Yeah, fair.
It's yeah, I guess Saints work. Yeah, that was, that's.
Saints, Saints, Saints. Very Roman.
Eventually, eventually very Roman.
Do you want a a minute? We can keep going as long as you
want on this. If you are done, Do you want a
stack take from me or do you want to go to Riders 'cause I'm?
There's there's. Let's hear the stack.
I'm having a tough time figuring
out what to do about Jade and Daniels in these drafts.
Mclaurin goes an awkward kind of 15 picks earlier and if I don't
get Debo, what am I doing? Is it like, is it ertz in, in
Week 17 is the point and it's Zach Ertz like, I don't know the
other top quarterbacks. It's kind of straightforward.
You know, with Buffalo, you can always get later guys.
You know that. Cincinnati's obvious.
Philadelphia's similar, Baltimore, you kind of know.
And this year it's more sprinkled through Washington.
I I want Daniels, but when I've drafted them I feel like I'm
getting stuck. I don't think you need to, I
mean, you probably don't need to stack Daniels cause how much you
do. And if you think about it, last
year, like he had some of those games where it was like Alamina,
Zacchaeus, Yami Brown, like, so I mean, I, I certainly would,
would try to stack him. But like I, I, I don't feel that
badly about myself. I wind up with the naked Daniels
on the team. What's your quarterback too
then? Like do you want you're just
going to stack like a low rent option with?
Daniels Yeah, I don't want you to.
I'd want to take like a pocket quarterback with Daniels that I
can really stack up if I'm doing like naked Daniels.
I like that. I I think like Daniels and and
Allen and Lamar at these prices, you're really betting that they
have just like a huge blow up week and or multiple and like
they don't necessarily carry that many guys along with them.
Lamar's the most stackable because you can you can do
flowers right there. You can get Andrews, you might
have Henry. So there's lots of ways you can
do Lamar, but Allen can get kind of tricky cause Shakur goes on
the other side of the board. Kincaid is like with this like
knee stuff. I'm kind of a little iffy on
him. And then, you know, I mean, you
can like take Josh Palmer or whatever, but it's like not it's
like you end up with like Josh Palmer and Ray Davis or
something. And you might.
Get, Leonie said. Leonie said.
Kincaid's fine, Leonie said. Actually, if you actually if you
actually read the. Article.
I'll dig in. Kincaid is fine.
He's not. I know.
He's not. I don't know anything about this
Leonie. Said I don't know what Leonie
said. Leonie said.
If you read the article, it was like more concerned about his.
They were more concerned about like his strength as like a
blocker is what the the article. Is it what I had?
I don't know if anything. Bills have big plans for Dalton
Kincaid after injury filled second season or what?
What's? I believe.
I believe that is the article. Yeah, I'll pull up the thing I
saw. It's got to be recent, I hope,
because I don't know anything about it here.
Here is what I think Davis, the G miss point was on Kincaid
after the season because then when he was doing his media tour
and trying to, you know, I don't know, it was it was mixed, but
what he he explained himself on Kincaid and it's really about
getting off, getting off the line, you know, just getting
getting free from press coverage earlier, being stronger and
being able to do that. I don't think they want to use
him with his hand down, but I think they want him to be able
to separate. Nobody on this team can separate
and they want him to get stronger so he can do that.
I don't know anything about the knee.
I know he had problems last year that maybe somewhat stemmed from
it. So The upshot is that he's not
injured, he's just bad. Was injured, isn't injured now.
I mean, if you look at their team though, like basically it's
still. Bad though.
Well, he always was. He had the one game against USC,
dude, He had the, he had the game against USC.
That like, like I kind of irrevocably changed the future
of the Buffalo franchise. But otherwise, so the the thing
I saw was from Jeff Muller, who said he dealt with APCL sprain
in his left knee and then rumors have undergone surgery for his
right knee this offseason, likely meniscus slash
debridement. So he he called him in a void.
So I don't know. I mean, I was already like, I
felt like I was already kind of carrying water for Dalton
Kincaid based on what he done in like at least in in the leg up
ranking stuff. I'm like, come on, like, you
know, maybe he's better than he's shown, but like if there's
any kind of like health stuff, he's just he's a scary pick.
So I'm just like, I don't actually think he's really that
good. He hasn't shown that he's that
good. And it is kind of an opportunity
based play. So I don't know, OK, I'm
getting, I'm getting a little squeamish.
All right, so Daniels, I can just draft Daniels because he's
great and figure out Stafford or someone else.
Geno Smith later on. Got it.
And I know they played Dallas in Week 17.
I don't think you have to wait that late, Joe, Honestly, like
you're, you're still Daniels. You have to get through week
1516 and 17. You have to win week 17.
And so like, even a guy like Daniels isn't necessarily going
to go nuts for three straight weeks.
And if he does, you probably do want him stacked.
So you, yeah, I mean, I think you can do it a number of ways.
Like you can you can still invest in the quarterback
position after Daniels to try to get through those those single
elimination weeks, especially if it's like, yeah, like like Jacob
said, like someone stacked up, like I wouldn't mind stacking up
the box and have Baker and just like think like, all right,
Baker and you know, Baker's more expensive than Gino by Longshot,
but it's like, yeah, Baker can have like a huge week 16 and get
you through or like Baker can be what wins you it and and Daniels
is what got you there. OK, risers, Pat Bryant leads the
way, and we've got a Broncos slide if you want to dig in on
him. What, what, what is the deal
here with with Pat? Bryant until he is going higher
than Marvin Mims as he is ranked in the Thinking About Thinking
Basketball rankings. I think you're going to win that
battle. I mean, Jacob, I'm sorry,
insane, insane take here. We're moving.
We're moving the market. What is what?
What are you? What are you hoping?
What are you hoping to get from Pat Bryant?
And it's very. Clear what you're hoping.
To get from to get an actual wide receiver instead of a
gadget player. Yeah, I'm, I'm with you on this
actually. And if there weren't, if there
weren't ADPOS, they could be Pat Bryant could be 85% of the
routes and, and be good. Like he was like a not a great
prospect, but he was a good prospect.
Like he was reasonably productive.
I didn't care about him pre draft because no one expected
him to go on day 2. So I I just sort of thought he
was going to be a, a nothing burger.
But jeez, once he went day 2, you know, you look back at the
production profile and you're like, oh, this is actually a
pretty solid bet to make for day two pick.
Like I, I wouldn't be surprised to me at all if he became like a
top 24 fantasy receiver at one point.
So why? Why couldn't he be like AI don't
know, like year one have a 80% rate starting say week 6 and
onwards and then have like a 18% target share?
The thing that's been tough for me to get my head around because
of the dynamic that you just said, we're like, he wasn't
really on my radar. I didn't write him up.
I had him like in my stop, but I just like didn't expect to care
about Pat Bryant. And then he goes third rounds
and he comes out for me is like the same tears Jill and Noel now
who I thought was going to go earlier.
And so it's like I've had to kind of it's taken me like a
little bit to to get like my my head around the idea that like
maybe Pat Bryant shouldn't be a late round pick, maybe should be
kind of like, you know, kind of more like the one 50s.
I think that's where he's headed.
Yeah, I think that's about right.
Pat. Bryant is going to be he's going
to be the most anonymous rotational wide receiver for in
the history of the Denver Broncos.
Like, because you're not going to send the Mims snaps to 0.
Now maybe Bryant limits Mims 80% of the routes.
I'm totally willing to grant that.
But you still have Vayleigh, who is not going to the bench.
You still have Troy Franklin, who is not going to 0 right now.
I think of all the. Guys like, why can't Yvonne
Vayleigh and Troy Franklin just sit on the bench?
Vayleigh could be an all time. Remember this guy?
Why didn't Why didn't Lil Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson go
to the bench for the number? Of all because Lynn, Franklin
and Vayleigh suck. Yeah.
Like, I just don't think any of these guys are any good.
So like, maybe Bryant doesn't either.
Probably probably pretty likely he's not that good this year.
But like, if he is, I don't. I don't understand why any of
these guys who couldn't keep little Jordan Humphrey off the
field are a are a major roadblock.
I think it's more likely that they are in our hair all year
because of the, you know, the history and the the point about
what Bryant is as a ceiling. Also, I'd say maybe Davis, Like
if he had a different name, would he be more exciting
Perhaps? Pat Bryant's for sure.
Yes, yes, absolutely he would be.
He would be more exciting if he had a different name.
The NFL Stock Exchange guys have a guy, I can't actually remember
what player it is 'cause his name's so boring, but they
renamed him Bull Rush McIntyre 'cause they they're like, if
this edge was named Bull Rush McIntyre, we won't love him, so
he needs to. Imagine if if if Pat Bryant were
actually named Devon Vaile. Just imagine what.
It were. The case.
I mean, Baylor, Baylor was a seventh round pick.
He's like old as hell, Yeah. He's my age.
So, you know, he was fine last year, but like he's he's got
this kind of like big slot role that they've already kind of
hinted that maybe they view Pat Bryant in a similar way.
I I think this is about is it is a third round pick in an offense
we are investing pretty highly in.
Like this is a pretty good situation.
You know, this, this, there is not really a a big impediment
here to playing time. If he's good, he has to be good.
But you know, and then the other thing is like, do we need that?
Jacob said 80% route participation.
Well, like the top guys are at like 90 plus.
So you're, you're kind of baking in some room for Troy Franklin
to come running some go routes and, and they like to work in
more than we like. And Mims does some gadget stuff
and I think that there's, you know, there's room to hit on
this if Pat Bryan is good where he he is still rotating like
more than a normal starting wide receiver.
But it's not a gigantic problem because he's you know, it's like
Haman, Cortland, Sutton are the only guys who can earn downfield
targets. Otherwise it's just dump offs to
Evan Ingram or running back. Marvin Mims has just already
demonstrably shown like Elite single game ceiling at the NFL
level. And unlike running back where
efficiency does not lead towards more playing time in the future,
this is a lot of our friend Blair Andrews.
Research at Rotoviz has found that particularly for year 2
wide receivers, spikes in efficiency lead to greater
playing time moving forward. And yeah, in in year 3 and in
year 4, that was like, it's he if you go, if you just go search
Blair Andrews on Rotoviz, he's got a couple like really good
like in depth studies on this stuff that finds that
particularly sparks in yards per route run tend to be indicative
of future fantasy points, meaning they get more routes.
And if I'm thinking about Sean Payton and what, you know, a
evidence based NFL coach would do, I think he would look at it
and he'd say Mims does something that none of the other guys can
do. He's better in space and he's
better down the field. And maybe like if, like if he
thinks that Pat Bryant is the new slant boy, which is kind of
what he's indicated, then that actually doesn't really preclude
Mims from getting more routes either.
It doesn't. I think that it.
I think it does because they they're still going to run a
bunch of 21 and 12. So like Sutton's getting his
routes. That's that's like not going to
change. So there are only so many,
there's like 1 1/2 receivers worth of routes left allocate.
And like, I understand that Brian and Mims probably have
very little in common in terms of their role, but if, if you
know that one of them is playing almost all of the routes, that
does mean the other one's a part time player at best.
That that I think is like true. I just view Mims as being like a
a guy who will have fun usage but not playful.
I would just be very surprised if in year 3, after two years of
being a high efficiency per target, low volume player, that
Mims is is now viewed very differently by the staff.
I I think he's going to continue to be get some gadget work, get
some drawn up shot plays, have some spike weeks.
I I just think his Rep participation is still not going
to be anything close to full. Yeah.
I mean, he was really efficient last year, but it was in this
really strange role, which is somewhat of like he was kind of
half running back and then he's running go routes and.
You know, I think you can't like Harvey is is sort of a problem
for him potentially like in in some of that out of the
backfield. Only only only in theory,
because the Harvey receiving stuff at UCFI, look this up
because Sacrela just mentioned this to me in one of my streams.
He's like, oh, you know what leg up?
We think one of the things is that Harvey is going to take
some of this away. Harvey was like legitimately bad
as a behind the line of scrimmage receiver at UCF.
Now there's a lot of reasons for that, but I, I, I, I've said
this before, I think the more I think a lot of the things that
people are thinking is Harvey is like a Darren Sproles type role
for the Broncos. I, I disagree with that.
I think he's the Pierre Thomas role, which is.
Yeah, I would. I would agree with that.
Yeah. So.
I don't think. 2 passing code. I mean, he's more like he's more
like a Bucky or something. Yeah, which which again in in my
mind is not an overlapping or duplicative skill set with the
type of stuff they were having Mims do.
Mims was doing the sprawl stuff, which is a decidedly different
thing. I mean, really, everybody's,
everybody's making good points. What does it add up to?
We're talking about Denver having a number of options late
rounds, you know, Bryant might be safer, higher floor, Mims
might be spike week, playoff weeks.
Think you can kind of do anything you want.
I mean, my issue with Mims isn't that he's like dead to score
points, it's that he just shouldn't be drafted in the top
like 120. Like, I just think he's just
that's. Been my issue has been the.
Cost wildly overpriced, yeah. OK.
Yeah, if he if he was going like in round 15 where he could be a
fun like rotational deep threat, which is what I think he is,
then I would be very pleased to to draft him.
That's where he's gone in the previous two years.
It's just, yeah, this like where you take Mims right now.
He goes right next to Rashad Bateman.
I know Rashad Bateman is running all the routes.
He's an actual wide receiver. He goes right in front of Kyle
Williams, who could be a day one starter for.
He could be potentially the number one wide receiver of the
New England Patriots. He goes ahead of Hollywood, like
I like Hollywood way more. He plays plays with Mahomes.
He's like also a deep threat, but I think he has he's going to
run every single route like Jill Mcmillan's down here at 1:48.
I I think it's like kind of similar, like he will probably
also have a rotational roll with some spike week potential like
that, that now we're getting like 2 rounds later.
That's more where I see Mims. I I just think the price is off
base based on what his role has been so far in the NFL.
He started two games last year. Well, you have to pay the tax
for the fact that he got 30 in week 17.
I mean, that is, that is what the well, you.
Don't have to you. Don't have to.
The IRS is not knocking on my door if I if I show up as 0%
Marvin Mims. To get him, you have to.
Yeah, I think he's fine to fade for right now.
I I don't think he's going to rise.
You know, like we're probably going to hear more about Pat
Bryant, a prospect who wasn't just he wasn't on people's
minds. You know, like, I think the
catch up, the feeling of playing catch up on Pat Bryant that I'm
having I don't think is unique to me.
Like I think the the market is kind of we're all like, is this
too high for Pat Bryant? Like maybe not.
OK, all right, he's moving up again.
Is that too high? Like, I think that could happen
and it could be supercharged by him having some good notes at a
rookie camp, which, you know, is a reasonably likely thing to
happen. So, yeah, I don't know.
I think, I think that this that these guys get closer even if
they don't flip. So I think I.
Flooding, fading Mims right now. I think I never heard his name.
Kyle Williams, Tori Horton, Jalen Royals, other guys you
know, that were drafted later or much later were more talked
about. So we're seeing him creep up.
He is at the top. Of the Jacob, Jacob mentioned
Hollywood playing with Mahomes like it was a good thing, which
I thought was funny considering that it's not.
It's like, do you really want Gardner Minshew's wide receiver
3 buddy you can have? Getting ready.
Three goes in the third round. Getting ready all ready for next
year's montage of just missed connections between Mahomes and
Hollywood Brown. You know, 25 plus air yards.
I'll be ready for that. There'll be a list.
Pat, Brian. Like literally 0 Hollywood last
year. But I I think his price is
ridiculous this year. I've been.
Very.
I'm not into him. OK.
He you get because like you look at like last year was not, I
mean, I know it was coming off injury, but it's not great.
And then he did in the playoffs. Yeah, like a little after a.
His his targets per out run Pat was actually pretty good in in
the games he did play. Earning targets Rasheed Rice is
back. You've got Xavier worthy likely
to take a step. They they drafted a dude.
So that's like creates like some real downside risk.
Probably unlikely. Oh no, that she's catching
someone on day three who will never play a snap for them.
I mean it's. Just like I've never been.
Less than that like. Anything than than the Jalen
Royals year one I like that does not affect right.
Now, But I mean, you've got you've got Rasheed Rice coming
back looking really strong, Yeah, in his recovery.
And then you have you have Worthy who's you know.
Right, That's why I thought it was a really bad tick in the
fourth round last year. Yeah, I did too.
I did too. It's tough to put too much stock
or any on the injured guy who comes back very late when an
entire season has gone along with, you know, other players,
rotation, familiarity. And then somebody comes back and
everybody gets excited. But I don't know.
I don't know if I want to really matter.
His his yards per rot run over the like he was at 1.25.
He was at 1.24 in in a limited sample last year.
He had like he's never been that good.
His his career high is 1.85 and so I don't know, I, I've been
surprised that Brown is more than just kind of a dart throw
at the end. Like he, I don't, I don't see.
The upside? Like what's the?
Upside. Everything you're saying I I
agree with except for the last part.
Like I really agree. In terms of last year, I thought
he was the worst pick on the board the entire summer.
His price made no sense to me. Why are we drafting this guy
with like a figure 1.3 yards per out run in like round 4?
But like what has really changed since last year?
Like Kelsey's worse than he was last year.
Rice has injury questions that he didn't have last year.
Worthy had a good rookie season, but like not a great one.
Like I don't actually view Worthy year 2 that much
different than I viewed Worthy year one.
I think there's actually more opportunity for Hollywood this
year than there was last year. I don't, I don't really
understand why I would view Hollywood any differently this
year than I did last year. So like I thought last year he
should have been like an eighth round pick that was priced up in
the 4th for some dumb reason. I don't really know why this
means he should be a 12. I think the difference is that
Rice Rice we were drafting on a promising rookie season and then
he looked like he was a target dominant player.
So now we have to go, OK, is he healthy?
But if he is like he's he'll, I think kind of changes the
situation in in Kansas City a bit.
We also had another year of Mahomes looking like Gardner
Minshew. So the whole like while he plays
in Mahomes case did kind of take a hit, especially from let's get
wildly overly optimistic about a guy.
I mean, relative to the price last year, you could say, oh, he
should be an eighth round pick, but he shouldn't have been.
He should have been like a 12th round pick.
Like I mean, like it was it was ridiculous.
It was truly ridiculous last year, like it was never going to
work. So I I don't see why I have to
like take last year's prices. If it was like at all rational.
It it was just it was hope. That was just a pure hope buy.
I don't know. I still think we, I still think
he's a light. He's a career like professional
wide receiver who's gonna run, I think a lot of routes on the
Kansas. City Chiefs 6065% route share
Justin Watson is now the wide Receiver 5 on the Houston
Texans. So I do think there is some
pretty good optimism that you can like if Hollywood replicates
Juju Smith Schuster's per game stats at wide receiver 62 you
it's like a it's like a giant win.
He just won't. I mean, that's, that's like not
even what he's there to do. Except it, it kind of is.
If you look at if you look at how they deployed him in the
games that he was there, he only, I believe he only had one
target over 30 area yards in in the.
Game 10.8 A dot. Play Yeah.
Lock close not. That much higher?
Juju 5.9 last year. All right, I'm wrong.
Is he under contract still by the way there?
Yes, Juju. Yeah, he is right.
He'll probably play more than I would like him to at all.
I I I also feel very confident saying he will have a higher
right share than Jill and Royals this year.
He will. Juju will play a lot early on in
the year while they are making sure Rice's knee is OK.
He, he and Rice play the same position in the offense, right?
Other risers, Jameson Williams, we talked about him a lot last
week, Will Shipley from Pat's Last Call team moving up, we
mean wet well clear of the 200 lines.
So I mean looking like great closing line value on that one.
And that's how you're judging this, right CLV?
They don't have to have to place more points later.
You're breaking up Keon Coleman, DJ Moore, Justice Hill, Dak
Prescott, DJ Moore. Feel like the vibes on him have
not been good. And yet he's climbing.
Yeah, not by much. Maybe it's just sort of a stable
market right now is, is one thing I mean these are, these
are some smaller. That's right, I haven't seen the
followers yet, but maybe there are players around him.
That are last week was was Dave that convincing for people?
Apparently, yeah, I can believe it.
I think the market, by the way, is kind of learning the wrong
lesson with the Shipley and Justice Hill rises.
They're just like really pricing in running back to security.
Like Justice Hill is like the definition of a chaperone.
Shipley is like locked in as the running back to.
But now that Shipley is going to come close to being like, I
don't know, 8090% drafted in basketball mania, you should be
doing a lot more of Taj Brooks, Blake Corum, you know, it's
Marshawn Lloyd. Like you should be the the
really good running back two bets.
I think particularly running back two bets who have no path
to stand alone value and it's all pure contingent.
I think that you probably are better off doing a guy who's 37%
drafted but might not be the running back two then being like
I'm going to take Will Shipley every time.
Well, I don't think you take Will Shipley every time, but.
Like why, why, why can't I just not take the guys who I have no
idea if they're going to be the RV 2 until I have some piece of
information that. Yeah, that's how I feel.
Like I would I would like, why would I take Taj Brooks now when
if I later want to take Taj Brooks, I can just take him
every time for two straight weeks in August?
Maybe. Maybe Taj Brooks is a bad
example. Maybe Marshawn Lloyd a better a
better Blake Quorum, probably only a better.
For all of. These guys, Marshawn Lloyd, I'm
into. I have.
Concerns about their place in the death chart.
I would rather just Lloyd's a little different cuz I think
he's probably a bigger favorite for the RB2 than the rest.
But for the most part, I just, the guys that I'm not sure if
they're the RB twos to me, I will just look at in August.
And like it doesn't Underdog doesn't really care how you
sequence your drafts. Like you're just going to jumble
them all up at the end anyway. So for me, it's like I get to
August and it's like I won't take any Will Shipley because
I've already taken enough Will Shipley.
And then I will take a bunch of these other guys that I wasn't
taking before. The other thing is that this
period is like a lower volume period in terms of the number of
drafts coming in. And we also know from Leonie's
research that a lot of these teams are going to have more
zeros than some of the other teams when they get through to
the playoffs. So like, and when you're in the
18th round or if you're on the 15th round, you're you're not
really thinking about advance rate.
You're thinking about how do I get my team to win some of these
playoff weeks or win the tournament.
You're likely competing again, like the strongest teams in your
pod are probably teams drafted after this team.
Like these are these, a lot of these are going to be July teams
and August teams that you're trying to compete against.
So not taking a bunch of 0 just be just being like able to fill
out a roster and then have access to prices that they
didn't have is kind of one of the easiest ways to to have a
leg up on them. At the same time, I do think
some of the better bets I I don't want to, I feel like I was
a little bit too cautious in this way last year.
Like if I think a guy is a, is a reasonably strong bet to be the
RB2, like a Marshawn Lloyd, I'm going to go ahead and, and take
that, that take that risk. I don't want to just speculate
wildly, but I, you know, like DJ Giddens, I like a lot 'cause I'm
like, I'm pretty sure he's good and there's nothing here
blocking him to be the RB2. He had reasonable enough draft
capital. I'm just, I'm just going to bet
that he's the RB2. I could be wrong, but I, if you
have enough guys, like I don't just want to be like, oh, I'm
just going to take Shipley. He's the only guy I feel safe
about. Like I want him.
I want to spread it out and so I'm taking on a little bit of
risk, but not like a ton. I think I write in that same
range. Pat is Devin Neil and I don't
know he's RB. What?
I've taken a little bit of him. He he is pretty risky though.
I've I've mixed him in occasionally.
Are we sure? He's the better bet than Kendra.
No, we're not sure. We we can't be sure.
Because, like, are we sure that they're going to be two and 13
and maybe Alvin Kamara is somewhere else?
That sounds reasonable as well. I'm less concerned about the
camera aspect of it. I get everything you're saying
with that. It's more just that like Neil is
the more recent pick, but Kendra is the higher pick.
I think he's the more talented player in my personal opinion.
I would take Neil, but it's not like a big.
I don't know. It's, it's, it's, it's just a
little dicey to me. The Dennis Allen is no longer
there. So there's no one to to hate
Kendry Miller. I think he at least gets like a
fair look from. As far as we know, as far as we
know, maybe this guy's got a touch with coaches.
Could be Justice Hill. OK, Prescott, we've all like
we've. I shouldn't say that as a fact.
Prescott has sounded to me through the offseason like
somebody that people think is going too late.
And maybe we're starting to see, is it Pickens here?
We're starting to see maybe even schedule stuff moving him up.
It's Pickens for sure. Yeah, yeah.
And he should. He should be higher than this.
I got a small change 2. Things.
It's like 1 people. People like Dak more because
they added a a real wide receiver.
And then two, there's now another team that is trying to
stack Dak Prescott because before you only had the CD
drafter that was trying to get Dak, whereas now you have the CD
drafter or the Pickens drafter that are both targeting Dak
Prescott. And and that that's like that
that really probably can't be overstated because with almost
every other quarterback, it's like, yeah, but his running
backs off the board. No, yeah, the running backs are
not off the board, Not a single one.
So, you know, and and the tight end also goes after DAC.
So it's it really is. There's been one CD team just
sitting there pushing DAC and now there's a second team he's
competing with. By the way, what do you think of
how the first round is going so far since the schedule came out?
I have done, I told you I signed up for the 20 slows.
I think I've been 24 and out of 21 that have started, I have 8
genties. Just I know we just said earlier
about wide receiver in the first round, but I've moved him all
the way up to one O 4 in one draft.
Just want to see and and what about Gentie Bowers as a start?
That's why I put slappy in the in the name today.
I don't know if that's a slappy move, but.
Seems good to me. Yeah, I have no problem with
that. I like Captain Gentie.
Vegas dice and darts. Giants.
See, I got it. I got it.
But you already knew it, didn't you?
You already knew it. You have to remember the if
you're remembering the demonic when you.
Are you're going well? Vegas plays the.
Giants 3D How many D is that? It's.
Going to come to me in a second. Ice darts Who's who's ever
played dice and darts in the same room?
Well, I think, I think darts is cigars is what we're going.
For here cigarettes, OK. Oh, I actually because of like
the dice and that's the gaming aspect.
I thought of it as the throwing darts but.
Me too, me too. Darts cool.
Yeah. Let's move to the Fallers.
We've been through the Broncos receiver slide.
Jalen Tolbert. That makes sense.
Zay Flowers, Alec IO Manor, Patrick Mahomes, Davis, Jerome
Ford, Dylan Samson, The 2 Browns running backs.
We've got a slide on that. And then Caleb Williams, and
that is the book. Caleb Williams the comment about
not wanting to play there. It's also I missed this one.
Rising a little bit. Hard to say.
There's going to be some, I mean, it's a 2.8% fall in a, in
a window of quarterbacks that are all kind of shuffling
around. And I think as long as they're
kind of in the, as long as you're like sitting in that
window, like you really shouldn't sweat.
Like I'm going to, I'm going to reach a few picks for this guy
to get him stacked. Like, yeah, great.
You know, so I, I don't know that it this fault means nothing
to me. 8-9 turn. Who else is in there?
Is Murray in there? Murray, Purdy, Murray, Goff,
Nicks, they're all, they're all bunched up there.
And Mahomes, Mahomes should be in that group, too.
Mahomes should not be meaningfully.
Separated of you and you're self loathing.
I think Mahomes should be. Back-to-back 200.
I can also back. To back 290 point seasons.
Also announced by the way, that Alec AO Manor, since last night
when these slides were put together, is now at 200.7, which
is a relative threshold. I'm not picking in front of you
this week after the last two, so don't worry about me.
So that's the 8-9 turn. And one thing you guys pointed
out on ship chasing with respect to the early drafts after the
schedule came out and stacks is how kind of what?
What's the right word here, Pat? Obvious Cincinnati, Arizona will
be with Chase and McBride and Harrison and Higgins and then
Burrow and even Murray. I don't know, is is that such a
game? That's just like, too easy.
Is there such a thing as that? It's so easy that like I'm sure
a bunch of people have a ton of it from before the schedule was
released because these guys were all going, you know, right at
that, you know, beginning of the board, the one hole or the 2
hole depending on, you know, if you got like Higgins or Chase,
whatever. But yeah, I mean, this game was
stacking up itself before we even knew to stack it.
So, you know, the schedule makers make us feel smart for
for doing this before we even knew, which is nice.
And then I think, yeah, it'll just it'll just stick here.
It's easy. Like if if, if AD PS are already
aligned like this, it's I think pretty easy to just kind of lock
them in. So I don't see why, at least in
the near term, this would break up at all.
Arizona Bengals stacks itself. So there's no no concern toward
like it just being too popular of an idea that the the teams
that were built before the schedule came out earn no
advantage. I, I don't, I don't think our
job on May 20th is to, is to draft with what has been popular
in a tournament that goes through the end of August into
September. Fair enough.
It's just not. It's, it's just and the final,
very beginning of the tournament, the final so small.
So small. I mean, honestly, show up like I
think more it's more likely to be the opposite that like to the
point that I said before, like you're competing against a bunch
of teams in your pods who've been drafted later in the
tournament. It's possible that this
particular construction is not available later and it's a
pretty appealing construction. So why not make it like I?
I don't know, I just don't want to overthink that.
OK, let's see Flowers, Any takes?
Just don't get that excited about him.
It's just probably about me. I, I like Zay flowers.
I don't, I don't know. I don't know.
His ADP is fine at 47. It's fine at 49.
Also, that same end of the draft.
He's like, I think it's just it's not an exciting pick
because he kind of, he's like a young player, but he feels like
an old player because he's just kind of been the same since like
Week 1. Like he just immediately had a
full time role. He hasn't really changed all
that much. He's been efficient.
He's volume captain the offense. He's just like a guy that like
if you need a wide receiver and he's the highest available in
your ADP, it's like a totally cromulent pick.
But I I don't think there's just going to he's just not the kind
of player that anyone's going to be going on Twitter being like
my guy is Zay Flowers. Like he's, he's just sort of
like a guy you take when it fits, it seems like.
Yeah, I recently was looking into him and I kind of made the
case that we needed to consider his ceiling a little bit more.
In his second season, he was a 2.25 yards per route run.
He's the clear wide receiver one on his team.
He really doesn't have much competition this year.
They bring in Hopkins, who really fell off Bateman is what
he is. You know, he's he's like a
helpful Darnell Mooney esque piece, but he's not like really
going to be stealing targets. And then Andrews was is coming
off a really concerning year that maybe he bounces back from.
Maybe it was a car accident stuff or maybe he just isn't
ever going to be what he was before.
So. Yeah, the tightrope surgery.
Right, right. But you came back from what, in
2023 and then yeah, but still didn't look right last year.
So the the flowers thing, because he plays with Lamar and
you know, they're never going to have like a ton of passing
volume. It's like harder to get excited
about him. But in the fourth round, I I've
actually come around to the idea.
I do think they're ceiling here relative to the price.
Maybe not massive, massive ceiling, but like we're talking
about a guy who hit the ground running as a first round pick
and then was very impressively efficient last year.
His quarterback could easily have just won back-to-back MVPS.
So it's not like he has bad quarterback play or something.
It's just the, it's a, it's an unusual situation in terms of
pass volume given how good the quarterback play is.
But I think he could, he could increase his target share pretty
easily, you know, and then then you have outs of maybe the the
Ravens are are passing more for whatever reason, Maybe Henry
slows down a little bit. Maybe they lean into the pass
game a bit more, you know? Like I have ranked the head of
ADPI always have say ranked the little head of ADP just because
it's sort of like I, I never against him, but then I'm fading
other people that just sort of pushes him up ahead of and he he
obviously fits how I tend to draft.
So like his, his ADP now is 49.6.
I have him at at 43. We we also have them at 43.
OK. 43 brings a Jackson Flowers stack into play for 49 doesn't
quite as quite as smoothly. Yeah.
The Browns backfield, Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson both
fallers. You've got, of course, Quinshawn
Judkins there to look at the next slide.
It's a tricky one for Cleveland, I think, because my read on
this, and it could be wrong, but my read is that for this year,
Sampson is going to be the backup in the sense that if
Judkins gets hurt, I think Sampson's the guy you want.
But for while Judkins plays, I think Ford plays more snaps
because he's going to have the third down roll, which makes
both of them much worse clicks because you, you ideally would
like to have the backup who plays 30% of the snaps each
week. And so you might get an
occasional spike week by accident.
You know, if they just happened to break a touchdown and you get
the contingent upside. I think that the contingent and
the standalone might be split here.
I think that makes a lot of sense.
One thing that's kind of frustrating about Samson is that
he's like a bit undersized, but he wasn't a pass catcher, which
isn't, you know, necessarily a huge problem in a vacuum.
But it's not great for this set up because Judkins was drafted
second round. He's the early down hammer, 221
lbs, great athleticism and can do a little something in the
passing game. I don't think it's a total zero
there. And then Samson's like 200, kind
of a speed back who's slower than the guy ahead of him.
You know, it's not I, I the path that he got is just like really
unfortunate. I think Ford makes a lot more
sense as a complimentary piece to, to Judkins.
I I think Samson has to go through Judkins one way or
another, like either an injury or, you know, much more, much
less likely. But it wouldn't be impossible
that at the end of the year they're like the guy we drafted
second is actually the better back.
Happens all the time. Happens all the time that the
guy you drafted second ends up being better than the guy you
drafted first. Yeah, like the Ravens was a good
prospect. I thought Samson would go and I
thought he was live to go, you know, late round two and kind of
that Harvey type zone. Or day 2 at least.
Day 2 at least. Yeah, brutal.
Brutal, brutal run out for him. I like Samson a lot but I agree
with everything past that. Like, he's not the most obvious
compliment to Judkins, so we'll, we'll see how it goes.
But yeah. Ford.
Ford I think has like no path basically.
Yeah, I don't see the point. Justice Hill or Kenny Gainwell,
but on the worst team in the world.
Yeah. Justice Hill's A.
Really a really good comp because I think he'll he'll mix
in and stuff, but it'll never really hit your line up.
And then, like, in the same way, if Henry were to go down, I was
surprised to see Hill rising, because if Henry were to go
down, I don't think, like, they're going to like, turn a
Rashina, yeah, or something. Like like he'll roll, but
obviously get bigger. But it wouldn't be like it's not
like he's our new Derrick Henry. Like it would he would become a
split of sorts, but he'll at least like he actually, the
Ravens score a lot of points and sometimes Justice Hill's a
recipient of those. And like they do like ski him up
for some wheel routes and stuff on occasion.
Like he he actually can have like a good amount of usable
weeks as a as a late round pick. But I think that like the thesis
on Justice Hill is different than it is on a will ship.
The idea with Justice Hill is like he will score points
alongside Derrick Henry, but the ceiling's not that high.
So he's kind of like a late round chaperone type guy.
If you've taken shots on like a Marshawn Lloyd and then you pair
it with a Justice Hill, like you kind of get one one guy who can
contribute. I viewed Jerome Ford very
similarly, although worse because the Browns are going to
score like half as many points as the Ravens.
Yeah. Over under five wins, they play
the NFC North. Their division's brutal.
It'd be a long, long road for the Browns.
Just a couple of names if I, if I can throw at you guys for
takes because we're through our slides here and we still got a
little bit of time to spare. Thoughts on drafting Jawan
Jennings in his range? Does that feel good?
Does that feel gross? Both.
Yeah. Can it be both?
It's both for me. Sorry, what?
Jawan Jennings? Yes.
Why is it gross? Feels awesome.
Because he's what, a fourth year player who's.
I think 6. 6th guy yeah see I'm I'm taking years off him and.
Early 6th round, early to mid. No, no, I'm saying how many
years he's been elite. He's Oh and 10 Year 5 he's.
Correct on 6. No.
He played in 20, 2020-2021, 223-2425.
Oh, he didn't log any any stats in 2020?
No per. PFL he didn't didn't log any
stats, but he he graduated. I, I, I know because he's a Vol.
So he graduated on the 2019 team because he caught the the Hail
Mary against Georgia. OK, so safe to save me for.
Me out in the NFL. He's on the way.
We've established that he's. I want to know is how invested
in him the Niners are. So yeah, I mean, I think like,
OK, the upside is Ayuk's coming off of a multi ligament knee
tear. You've got Ricky Pearsall, who
took a long time to show anything and was like a weird
first round pick. He could like be very little and
you know, the the Purdy, I think show that he can make plays last
year and the situation isn't perfect.
You do have McCaffrey coming back though, so the offense
could be could be rolling a bit more.
So, you know, and the and the other thing is with the way I
build Jennings is often someone where I'm like, well, he should
be productive right away. I don't have to worry about him.
And it's not like he's only an early season play.
Like if he hits, he could be just a great pick, but I don't
you know, he pairs well with rookies and stuff like that.
So that all kind of gets me on Jennings.
At the same time, this is like a slot receiver who just like
could not get on the field for years and they have IU coming
back. They have a first round wide
receiver. Like he could be an absolutely
hilarious sixth round pick in retrospect.
Like he could be like one of the guys we're talking about have
like we lost our minds. We were taking this dude in this
state. It could be this could be
Marquez Calloway. Remember.
Remember Marquez Calloway, who also went to Tennessee?
Exactly who's who's the guy on the Bucks?
That one year that we took, he went from the Falcons.
He was a slot be with the we, but the name is Russell.
Gage, yeah. Russell Gage, He could.
This could be Russell Gage again like.
We've Jake him out of that one. It is, it is like definitely in
the realm of like we drafted and again, I didn't draft any of
these individuals. I, I make a lot of embarrassing
picks, but usually on rookies, not 28 year olds, but Alan
Lazar, remember like he went in the sixth one random year.
Marcus Valdez Scantling went in the 7th that first year with
Kansas City. Russell Gage went in the 6th
that year with Tim. Like there are these like really
embarrassing picks in hindsight where like one year we've
decided to draft a 27 year old who never did anything in like
the sixth round and it's never, it doesn't go well usually.
Never works. So like from the zoomed out
view, this bat feels terrible. I I think the reason I'm willing
to make the exception is 1 His like target earning last year
was actually fantastic. That was not the case for any of
these other players. These all those other players
are more just like kind of projected into volume in a very
favorable situation, whereas Jennings we actually saw in this
situation earn a crap ton of volume.
And then the other difference is that the 49ers are just kind of
like a more meritocratic team than any other team in the NFL.
Like they they're they're not the kind of team that will look
at it and say, like, well, we have this sixth year veteran and
we have this guy we took in the first last year.
But so like, we're going to force the ball to the first year
of attack. Like if pure Sol's better, he
will be better. If he's not, they will throw the
ball to Jen. It's like they they don't care.
They're going to take, they're going to throw the ball to the.
Players He also scored 50 points in a game, which is the that is
my my biggest thing is that he is he had 50 points in a game.
So that seems good. I I would like that.
Yeah. Sounds like.
Basketball 3rd and jawan. You guys not heard of 3rd and
Jawan? They've been doing that for
years. Like even before Jennings was
good it was like 4 years ago and like he would he would catch a
pass and all the 49ers people would be like 3rd and Jawan so
they they like. Yeah, I mean that I'm kind of
making this the same exception for the same reason.
And, you know, that you got, it's like he was really good
last year and he was better than Pearsall.
You know, there were a couple, there were a few different
moments where I was like, all right, this is the chance for
someone to step up. And it was it was Jennings.
Pearsall had that big week 17. But like, you know, Jennings was
still I think the dude down the stretch.
And really the whole time that that, you know, the opportunity
opened up, it was primarily Jennings.
So it just does feel, it just gives me like so many like, you
know, this guy turns back into a pumpkin type of type of
flashback. Because Piersall could be
better. And then that's that going into
Year 2. I mean that happens.
Yeah, I mean, he does have the out of Iuke not being right.
And then, you know, you have Iuke having his issues with this
team. They're clearly like immediately
had buyer's remorse on on his contract.
They're like shopping him around after he tears his knee.
Like I, I don't think you're going to get the best price,
guys. So, so, you know, I think Pierce
all could be better. And then I you just never kind
of gets gets back to the role he had like that.
That could happen. It's not just a bet against
Pierce all it. And I think in some ways it is a
bet on Jennings who was good last year, but it's just it, it
just makes me nervous. But you know, on the flip side,
like he did so last year, he had 2.26 yards per out run and he
had 975 yards. Like it wasn't like a, a tiny
little little sample of play. He, he had it, he had a weekly
ceiling. He's been in the offense a long
time. You know, it's kind of a
complicated offense. You know, these guys tend to
trust the dudes who they, who they trust in those offenses.
So maybe you know, maybe it works for us.
Is there anybody then on San Francisco we're out on sort of
like everybody at the price and we're.
Drinking I'm out on I'm out on pure Sol.
OK, well. You're in on McCaffrey.
Actually, sorry, that's actually not true about pure Sol.
I'm so used to doing dynasty podcasting that I'm fading Pure
Sol very hard in Dynasty. I'm actually much more
interested to take stabs on his best ball value since it's just
like the he's actually a little cheaper than Jennings in in best
ball versus like the dynasty price is is lunacy to me.
I don't know how I uke I think then.
I I think that yeah, I'm I've been very skeptical of I uke
with the injury, but his his price has come down like when
when this thing first launched, they were basically all three
were the same price and I thought I uke was one of the
worst clicks on the board. They've come down and price a
good amount. I'm I'm not really that out on
any of them in best ball. I, I'm most in on.
I mean, I'm most in on Kittle. This is the guy I'm I'm most in
on. I, I would, I would draft him
like the third round if I had to, but I don't know, the pure
salt thing is, is really weird to me.
Like I, I, I've taken shots because he goes in a round where
I don't like any of the other wide receivers, but he was not a
good prospect statistically. I liked some of his film, but I
had like significant concerns about his prospect.
From a data perspective. He's like a 23 year old rookie.
He had basically one game that his entire rookie season inches
on. And I find it very curious how
many people are so bullish on him.
Like if, if the entire community was just like, oh, like he's a
young player with an opportunity.
Let's let's give it a shot. I would be I would be like
totally, totally fair enough, but the amount of conviction
behind this guy who hasn't really shown anything and didn't
really you. Have you seen that one catch
though? So.
Have you seen that one catch? Have you seen that one catch
though? The one the one handed.
It's so good that you're outside right now.
It's like this, yeah. Literally.
Well, what I what I realized was that the the 4G on my or the 5G
electron or whatever obviously works way worse in my basement.
So I'm outside right now. My thing yeah, with with Pierce
all like I don't why are we supposed to take him over like
Luther burden or a Mecca book? I mean, I guess you could argue
situation on the book 1, but like, I'm like, OK, so I'm I'm
betting I'm basically betting on a guy to kind of make his own
opportunity because I don't think anything's going to be
like totally handed to Pierce all, especially down the stretch
with you coming back. Like it's sort of a bet on
talent profile. He wasn't that great of a
prospect. You know, it's really bad on the
draft capital, but the draft capital matters less this year
than it did last year. We only get the one good game
last year. I'd rather just, I think bet on
burden, you know, like that's the range that I expect Pierce
all to be in. OK, you guys got to answer this
to me, which one of Ayuk, Pierce all or Jennings is most likely
to be Dante Pettis? Because Dante Pettis is always
the go to for me of a guy that Shanahan.
Yeah, it's it's Pierce all. Yeah.
Pierce had 1.31 yards per hour on last year and he struggled to
get on the field for the whole season.
Like, you know, and this is in a year where Brandon Iuke tore up
his knee and it was Debo's last year on the team.
So why are we why are we like excited?
Why are we taking him over first round receivers from this year?
I just don't really get it. It's not really couldn't work
but it just it's a weird price. Proof of concept has been
demonstrated. Let me let me be the non nerd
here. Just a couple a couple things.
I one, I think the argument of like just watch the pure self
film is actually stupid. But I think it is basically just
like he did get shot, which I feel like we actually haven't
mentioned yet. That's true, literally.
That's a good point. He did.
He did get shot in the sternum, so he missed a lot of workouts
and didn't play a lot. That's a.
That's a very fairpoint. We've seen Shanahan do more with
less, right? I mean, we've seen quite bad
players put up a lot of numbers. I think pure Sol's basically
fine. And I think that maybe the
difference that I have with you guys actually is like, I think
I've become like a pretty truther.
Like I think I'm actually. Like AI think I'm like a pretty
like that that boy nice. So I'm like, I don't know, man.
One of these guys probably scores 10 touchdowns and I want
to have like 17% of of all of them other than Iuke, who I just
for like ideological reasons. I'm, I couldn't be less of a
pretty truther, but I'm definitely a, a 49ers offense
truther. And like I last year we were
drafting Iuke and Debo in round two, if I recall correctly, not
not including myself in that week, Christian McCaffrey was
one O 1 and Kittle was going about where he's going now.
So like, if you think about it like comparison this year now,
we, we went from first overall McCaffrey to high to McCaffrey.
We went from round two IU can Debo to like 3 guys going in
round 678 like the and and Kittle's about the same.
So it's like we've we've changed it very much where it's actually
a much cheaper offense to invest in.
And I think pretty, even though I wouldn't consider myself a
pretty truther, I did think he was more impressive last year
than in in any previous year, despite the team not succeeding
and their defense done absolutely washed out.
So they're probably going to have to pass more than we would
have projected them to do going into last year since since our
defensive expectations should be way lower.
So I think you can be in on every single member of the
49ers. I don't think that you have to
choose one. The pure salt thing is just so
like I just want to know where these pure salt truthers came
from. I find it very confusing.
I liked him last year. They.
Came from just. Bob's production.
But this is like I I remember, I remember.
I did too. Pierce Hall was like a
standstill. I was like, I was like this.
I was like, this guy's analytical profile is pretty
garbage, but I kind of like him anyway and here's why.
And like I was talking like what I thought some of the strengths
were and and I I was into him and then like I don't, I'm not
going to hate on him for getting shot, but like to me, his rookie
years, like most were nothing like he's his stats were like
pretty bad. He barely played.
He had one really good game. He had he had like a he had a 5
game stretch where I believe he had one target Max per game.
Yeah. So like at most like at most I
should. That's right, Davis 00011.
Thank you. So like I, I don't understand.
There's no reason to me why I should view him massively better
after that season than I viewed him as a prospect.
Like at at worse, I should just view him the same.
So I, I just, I don't know why it's like, wow, like he didn't,
he didn't blow anybody's socks off.
And I don't understand how I went from like a pure Sol bull
to a pure Sol bear off of like. I mean, he, he is my most, he's
my most drafted wide receiver, which I guess should mean
something. It's just it's the part of the
draft where he's in. It's the it's the part of the
draft. Where he's in more than I
thought he would because. He yeah, you, you get, you get
to that point of the draft. I mean, there's the two Green
Bay guys who are like basically the most uncomfortable clicks on
the bullet and then I. Don't care.
I'm and Jayden Reid, I think we were a little too low and we
raced him yesterday. He was one where I was like, you
know, I'm probably just like scarred.
I think this is scar tissue. I mean to that.
That boy right there, that boy is nice.
I'm I'm back in on. I'm not.
I'm not giving.
I am not giving. Jayden Reid, that boy.
Nice. That, that is crazy.
Dude he has like 1 of the nicest players of the literally Jayden.
Reid let him play. Williams on the Packers, he has
like, he's extremely efficient. He does great things every time
he touches the ball. I have no idea why you of all
people like wouldn't be into Jayden Reid.
Like all of your arguments about efficiency leading to role
increases, Like that's that's like, that's Jayden Reid
personified. He said Jayden Reid was like
actively bad after the second like.
He had the second highest passel rating in the entire NFL when he
was targeted. I mean that is like you are
torturing the data. Davis, Who do you think had a
higher yards per outrun? Jayden Reid or Jameson Williams
last. Year.
What do you mean I'm torturing the data?
I mean, I it's Jaden Reed. That's the only reason you're
asking. It's pretty easy to it's pretty,
pretty easy to do when you run. You know who also probably had a
good one? Ductavian Wicks because you ran
about. 7 rounds you like? How many routes do you think,
Jaden? Reed, you like Marvin Mims.
How? How can you be like?
I like Marvin Mims who runs like.
Yeah, because that boy, that boy is nice.
That's why I like him, because that boy is.
It's so much better than Marvin Mims.
Davis, I I don't know if you want to get into, well, you know
what, James and Williams are in a lot more routes than I
realized. Yeah, that's a, that's a full,
that's a full time player runs a four, three, maybe learn Pat.
I, I Davis is tight, if I may, I, I relate to it's like the
highlight where the guy just sort of runs away from everybody
and you Jameson Williams just runs and men's had that and
really maybe he didn't. But Jane Reed had 11.4 yards per
target and 2.2 yards per route. Run like this should be a player
that you like. Every other crappy player you
like has this. Profile I've learned, I've
learned this lesson with Marvin wins when you only run 47% of
the routes and you have like. You haven't learned that.
Effort. You haven't learned it at all,
Marvin wins. You just were Pro Bowl.
Wins is an 11th round pick. Yeah, that's the problem.
The argument you guys are giving me right now is if you like
Marvin Mims in the 11th, you're going to fucking love him in the
7th is what is what I'm hearing. And we're surprised you're not
taking that big. I, I, I, I have Jaden Reed
ranked right at ADP and I like taking him.
Obviously the big difference on these teams is if you, if, if
Lafleur got his way, they would run.
Would they run every down if it was up to Lafleur?
Like would they? Would they execute a true wing T
running every every all four downs?
They would. That to me, I think is a pretty
big difference. Golden over read by the way by
80P is a little higher. I'm that boy.
I'm I'm using that boy. Nice corollary there and going
golden, but I have them ranked literally.
Right back-to-back. 7470. I I don't because I'm an
ideologue. So I have Reed ranked at 72.
I have Matthew Golden at 85. I I have golden at 75, but but
he would be one of the guys that what I would say with Piersol
like, Hey, are you into rookies who we we have reasons to worry
might not be very good at all. How about one that we haven't
seen not play for a year? How that interests me more than
the guy who didn't play for a year.
How do you say that Jacob and I are both part of the slappy
tree, yet we're like basically on opposite sides of the slappy
tree? It's like we can't, we can't
find, we can't find one fast player to agree upon.
This Jayden rethink drives me crazy because like he's he's
like one of the most like non nerd players that I love.
Like he's like an efficiency bet.
And it's like the, the, the actual, I'm like, he's one of
the few guys I'm like, people need to get stuffed in a fucking
locker and drafted Jayden Reid. And sure enough.
He's a slot, Jacob. You can't.
You can't say he's like a football or football players,
football players. Do you want to know?
Do you want to know what it is that kind of disqualifies Jayden
Reid from the bat Boy? Nice group.
When he gets tackled, it it like he does not bounce right back
up. He gets tackled and he's kind of
like adjusting his shoulder pad. It's like, oh God, you know,
it's like Marvin Mims. Marvin Mims will will get
tackled by safety and then just pop right back up and do the
first down point. Punch you in.
The yeah, you know why Davis? Because he's about to go sit on
the bench for the next two snaps.
So is Jaden Reed. So is Jaden Reed.
Jaden Reed, Those tags. Romeo Dobbs to come in for him.
Marvin Mims, Just just Saunders off the field, get some
Gatorade. Just watch his next play.
Like, yeah, it's easy for him to pop right back up.
It's about to get a break. Now is this is this true that
that he put on weight? Has Jane Reid put on weight?
Because that could that could sway me.
I don't want him to put on weight.
I never, I, I never want like players who rely on athleticism
to be putting on weight like Devon HN put on weight last
year. I didn't like that experience.
Yeah, ended up ended up being that good for HN to put on
weight, by the way. I didn't like it.
It was really bad for Pollard. Pollard really bad?
Yeah. Something like pollen weight?
Don't break your ankle and then put on weight.
That's my. Kind of weight?
What kind of weight? Yeah.
The only player who has ever been good to put on weight was,
ironically, Ronald Jones. Even then it wasn't that good.
He he had like he managed to like eke out that one season,
but then it was over. It's.
Now Lamar Jackson. That's one more season that he
would've. Had it's.
It is put on. Weight he made the deal with the
devil he made It was like, Give me this one year.
Lamar Jackson put on weight and then a year later he's like, no,
I'm done. Ronald's house.
Yeah. All right, boys, last call.
Oh, I, I have to hang on. I have to have to do it.
I I'm I'm taking someone fun for change.
He just entered 200 Alec Ayumanor, Tennessee Titans.
Live nice. Do you do you like his prospects
or is he just? Good.
I mean, I really I really liked him pre draft like he now went
in the what was it fourth round or fifth round, fifth round, the
NFL draft. So like he's now probably Seth
Williams, but I I liked him a lot pre draft.
I had him I think is my wide receiver 8IN the class pre
draft, which which is obviously wrong, has like earned a ton of
targets. The the issue with his profile
predominantly is like was an inefficient player in college,
but Ashton Daniels, like the worst college quarterback ever.
I think he had 6.2 yards per attempt.
So he's like the kind of bet that I would like to make.
I really wish he went on day 2, but he'll have an opportunity in
Tennessee, man. Like it's Calvin Ridley is
Manning one of the slots? I'm sure Tyler Lockett will
start like week 1, but that's like a pretty movable piece with
Tyler Lockett and I, I have no idea who the wider 03 is going
to be so. And is he not from Saskatchewan?
He's. Canadian.
He's definitely Canadian. I can't tell you where in
Kennedy's from, but I'm going to look that up right now.
OK, Medicine Hat, AB there. You go Medicine Hat, AB Love it.
Yeah. Pat.
Or rather Davis. What if Pat Bryant's name were
Alec Ayo Manor? Would you like him that much
more? 11th round pick?
Probably yeah, in in best of all mania.
All right, I I don't think this one will get taken, but this
works with the little stack I have going because I have no row
in Horton. I'm going to do Elijah Arroyo.
I I you. Already have him?
I. Already have him?
All right. Good news.
You have him. Good news.
Savion Williams. Savion Williams, What we're
doing the that boy. Nice discourse.
I will take Savion Williams, a version of Jayden Reid that
weighs 220 lbs. I've just negatively polarized
David into completely wasting a pick by by talking positively
about Jayden Reid. It's true.
You did.
Mine is boring if you want the. OK, yeah, I'll take.
I'm. I'm looking to see if it's been,
if he's been taken so far. I don't see him.
Just give me one SEC. Don't.
Let me down here. All right, so this is kind of
boring, but I don't see anyone else really jumping out.
Uh oh. And I got to stack it up.
I got to stack that bitch up. I'm going to take Theo Johnson.
Oh good. That.
That's literally the most boring last call selection you can
make, yeah. But I think he is a draftable
tight end. You can, you can go to the end
and he's, he's someone that I, I am willing to, to actually
draft. You, you made me nervous.
It's boring and I'm going to stack.
I thought you were taking my guy Daniel Jones.
Oh, good pick. Yeah.
Good. Good Rest.
Good. Rest, Mike.
Good. Rep Oh my God.
Two 34234. I have them ranked ahead of
Anthony Richardson by the way, if anyone's.
Drafting Wow thinking. About Do you want to talk about
someone who's given up their principles?
Jacob Jacob Ranking Daniel Jones out of Richardson is.
Somebody. Yeah, I don't even think that's
the heart once. That's just that's.
Not what I want. That's not what I want.
That's a broken Pulse fan rank. That is not what I want.
That's just what. I where you at?
Where you at on the because I was reviewing the ranks
yesterday and one of my takeaways is that like the
market's been kind of low on the Colts guys and we've been a
little bit higher than market on the Colts guys.
I'm. Higher on the Colts guys cuz I
think Daniel Jones is gonna play the whole season.
OK, Yeah, my take away after yesterday was that we're
actually not high enough on the Colts guys and that they might
represent a pretty big and I include Pittman, which is like
rare for me on top of the guy. I know.
I'm finally in on Michael Pittman.
I'm finally in, Yeah. In my life.
I'm in on Michael Pittman, Yeah. So I mean and I think Mitchell
gives you some upside late like Pierce is the only one I on.
Track well, I don't really take, I think I think Pierce is
actually a pretty big value. I mean, he's a great pick for
the best ball format. I think he's good.
Do you think his routes are safe for Mitchell?
He was the most effective player on the team last year.
Yeah, I think his Reds are safe. Michael Pittman, wide receiver,
5th. Mitchell's a bad pick.
I haven't. Taken anything I haven't.
Mitchell is a Mitchell is a good pick.
I mean, I, I take Mitchell. The thing with Pierce, like I, I
get that he's like not fun for fantasy and I never get to have
this perspective. So it's unique with Alec Pierce,
but like he, he feels like a crucial role on the team.
He is by far the best field stretcher.
He's very, very good at what he does.
He's also a really good blocker there.
There's just no, there's no reason why they would want to
take him off the field. It wouldn't make sense.
It would like annoy me greatly as a Colts fan if they took him
off the field, but I so I haven't been as in on Mitchell,
but he has three-way contingent upside and he'll still have a
role where they like scheme him up some stuff.
I I think I'm ahead of every on ADP of every Colt, though, If I
just let me let me just command F real quick.
Yeah, like I have Josh Downs at 81.
I have Kitman at 90. Yeah, I think I'm actually
behind ADP on Warren. I have them at 1:34.
Downs, we got up to 88, Pitman is at 99, but like we're still,
I mean, that's still ahead of ADP on both guys.
And I tend to swing a little bit more from from ADP and then
like, yeah, Alec Pierce, I haven't had ADP, I haven't had
162. I have AD and I at 183.
But I think, I think, I think that it's going to become, I
could be wrong. Like it's not like I have any
inside information, but I, I think it's going to become
apparent in middle of August that Daniel Jones is the plan at
quarterback and Anthony Richardson is, is not the plan
in any capacity. And I think that that's going to
positively impact their ADP's. So we know if he's called
Pittman yet texted him, is that still?
Not sure I mean, I could be wrong and I hope that I am like
I I hope that it's we get into training camp and it's Anthony
Richardson looks great. You know, he's he's completely
sticks to his his accuracies. He's going to be the quarterback
of the future. Great attitude.
All that stuff like that would be that that's the only way that
this team has any upside. But I I just think it's going to
be like the first two day, OK, they're trading back and forth
wraps with the ones Daniel Jones looked considerably better
today. Anthony Richardson airmailed
several 2 yard outs. What?
What do you think the odds are that Daniel Jones had the
starter in Week 17? Like 68%.
Higher or lower than week 1? Lower than Week 1.
Higher than Week 1. I think higher than week 1.
I I was thinking it was like 5050 because Jones is bad enough
to get benched for Richardson later.
I think I think the I think that the most likely option to be
honest is the Daniel Jones starts the season and then
either gets hurt or is benched for Richardson.
Richardson gets like his last chance is probably 100% and then
Jones comes back in and then finishes the season.
I almost thought it was the opposite.
I thought Richardson would start as like the final.
Like, OK, you did enough to to beat out this bomb in camp, but
wait, it's a short leash. He gets benched for Jones.
Jones is so bad they go back to Richardson.
Everyone gets fired. I liked him.
They're both bad and Riley. Leonard starts to speak 17.
I think Richardson is tough to put back in once you make that
move in the 1st place. Oh.
Well, we we did it last year. Yeah, that's true.
It's becoming more common. I mean, Bryce Young, you know,
Bryce, that's right. Bryce Young.
That's our accident. Changed his life.
I I just like, I don't know man, this it's the, the plan for
these first psych in this year is very simple and it is like
make the playoffs or enjoy unemployment.
And I just think he looks at this and he's like, I've won
games with Minshew and Flacco. I can definitely win games with
Daniel Jones, but I I don't know if I can do anything with
Anthony Richardson. But what I think is happening
with the wide receivers is that we're spending a lot of time
thinking about who starts at quarterback because it's it's
kind of fascinating and it's like a puzzle that we we just
don't like. We have really enough
information. Fascinating isn't the word I'd
use, but. Yeah, well, it maybe not where
you're sitting. But soul destroying.
Soul destroying, yeah, sure. But it's it's like it's a very
difficult situation to predict. But what it's leading to, I
think is just like that uncertainty bleeding into the
wide receivers where it's like, well, I don't want these guys
because I don't know how it's going to play out a quarterback,
but it's like it's going to play out somehow it the.
Same thing that's happening with the Browns.
Well, no, I don't think it's like the Browns.
I, I don't think it's like the Browns.
I think the, the Browns, there are like no good options like
this. This could be the most likely.
The Browns are just a true dumpster fire.
But Daniel Jones playing for the Colts, it should be OK.
Like they've been productive with Gardner Minshew.
When I say they, I mean these receivers have been productive
with Gardner Minshew, with Joe Flacco.
Like, they don't need some great quarterback.
They just need like, they need Richardson to be playing well
enough to hold off, I feel, I feel like.
That is not my experience with Daniel Jones.
I feel like my I. Think people are?
Is different. I think people like, again, like
I, I don't want to ever see Daniel Jones play a game for the
Colts. My preference as a fan would
obviously be that Richardson plays and plays well.
That's, that's the upside scenario.
But I think if Jones plays, I think he will play.
I think he's going to be completely fine like this.
This team is a really good setup for a quarterback.
It's a shame that Richardson sucks so much.
Like Stikon is a very good play caller.
They're going to have a good offensive line.
They have more good wide receivers than they need.
They don't have like an elite wide receiver, but they have 4
pretty good ones. They're going to have a good
tight end. Now they have Taylor hurt
running back like this is a really good spot.
Jones is going to be protected. They're going to have smart play
calling. They're going to do like a ton
of RP OS He's he's going to be put in a position to succeed.
I I think that like the idea that Daniel Jones is like worse
than Gardner Minshew by some significant amount is like not
accurate to me. Like I, I think people actually
quarterback ever he can at least be Gardner Minshew.
I'm pretty confident he can be Gardner Minshew.
Jones is toast. Joe Flacco is so much better
than Daniel Jones like. No, he's not Flacco.
Flacco. He's for fantasy.
He is, though not even in argument.
Sure, because they have like a weird thing where somehow every
time Joe Flacco plays they're like, I guess we have to throw
50 times. I don't know what.
I don't know why that became an agreed upon thing, but that
became a thing. Because Flacco's so old that he
he believes that RPO is is is trickery.
He's like, I think RPO is dishonest.
You should just line up and beat Amanda man.
It's also that we just like weren't capable of running the
ball with Flacco because he was like so immobile the the teams
just would you can actually have a running game with him because
you can't do any RP OS so you just have to call a bunch of
throws. But I don't know, I think Daniel
Jones is not that bad of all I'm saying like he was he was
actually pretty decent for the Giants.
What was it 3 years ago? Then he tore his ACL the next
year. And then like last year, he he
was, he was obviously not good, but like the situation's way
better than the end of the Giants.
The online's way better. They have way more receivers
other than just Malik Neighbors and Wandell Robinson, who has
140 targets and couldn't clear 700 yards.
He's still in the frame framing of high first round pick that
was, you know, over picks and then extended by the Giants and
all the spotlight on the New York play.
Yeah, I I agree he's better. He's he's not as bad as they
say. And and some of the ways that
he's bad don't matter to me for this team.
Like the guys I care about are are downs and Pittman primarily.
And then you're talking dart throws after that.
But the two the two main guys are are shallow guys or they're
they're intermediate guys. At least they're not deep
threats like the you know, I think some of the criticism on
Jones is like a Brown is deep ball ability and stuff.
And it's like get the ball like RPO, get the ball out quickly to
Downs and Pitman. If you can execute that stuff,
then we're cooking. Because the bottom line is that
Downs is just a much, much more talented receiver than the guys
he goes around. Downs is a really good receiver.
Pitman is as much as I don't like Pitman, he's better than
the receivers he gets drafted near like he is.
So I just get the upside of like these guys are better than the
player. Someone use that with Hollywood
later, like he's so much better than the players around him.
I kind of don't agree, but I think that these guys are the
downs is just like a much better receiver than the guys he gets
drafted near. Pittman's a much better receiver
than the guys he he gets drafted near.
And so like I don't know how it's going to like it could be
Richardson taking a step. Maybe it could be Jones like,
but I think like I I do like getting to bet on talent here
and something has to break my way.
I don't know what it is. The market doesn't know why what
what it is either, which is why these guys are going where
they're going. Yeah.
And especially in our game, because it makes them harder to
stack. So, so people are like, like, I
don't want to take a cold. I've had that experience where
if I, if I don't have stacks lined up already, I'm like, I
really want to take dams or Pittman, but I, I don't want to
stack either of them. So then it's like, what do I do?
I, I'm going to end up being very, very high on them though.
I'll probably be above 20% on each of those guys.
I don't think you need to. Don't feel obligated to stack it
at all. Like part of part of the appeal
to me is that like, I don't have to figure out how this plays
out. I just get to bet on these these
underpriced talents. Yeah.
Duval and the King's Horses, Indianapolis, Jacksonville in
Week 17. All right.
All the King's horses not. OK, so.
And the King's horse. The King's horse, yeah.
That makes. No, you're right.
That makes more sense. That's good.
Let's use that.
We did. We did use that and we will
continue to use that on on future on future episodes.
Of all the King's horses. Yep.
All right boys, what do you have this week?
Davis? You, you're a a trooper today
outside you've got the power outage making it work.
Not the day you'd want to have an 8 hour stream or anything.
No swole cast in 10 minutes. And then I I this crane, you'll
love this. Guess which former Rotaviz
favorite running back I'm recording a podcast with this
afternoon? Bishop Sankey.
More, more Rotovisian than that, in the sense that we were the
only people on Earth who cared about him.
Eno, Benjamin. Still still had too much of a
moment in the sun. Really.
OK. South Dakota State.
Oh, shoot. But not Pierre Strong.
Not Pierre Strong before Pierce. This would have been
legitimately before your time, Jacob, I think.
Oh. I'm blanking.
I don't know me, but I have. No.
Idea Zach Zener. Zach Zener.
Oh my God. I'm I'm.
Recording that he had sort of an Eno moment, didn't he?
Didn't he have a Zeno moment? Scored a scored, he had a good
game. He got to start for the Lions
and scored a touchdown. Davis if you start a pod with
Zach Zener. Like that would.
Really feel like going full circle.
He. He runs a performance center,
like he's super into like the Huberman, like the research and
the sunlight and shit. So I'm actually really excited
to talk to him. Perfect.
You're outside. Sweet.
Jacob, how about how about you, you guys?
Jacob beat that. I can't beat it.
I. Can't beat.
It dynasty points on tonight. As always, best ball ranks are
now live up on thinking about thinking I'll get continue to
get updated on a on a least a weekly basis.
We'll have more best ball contact coming out soon and
yeah, stay tuned. Pat.
Yeah, legendary upside got. I've been kicking around some
thoughts on what we talked about the start of the show, kind of
like the the draft landscape, so I might get a piece up on that
soon. And best ball rankings for
underdog DraftKings? We've got dynamic rankings
legendaryupside.com/sidekick. Check it out.
Triple header for me today, starting with this show, ADP
chasing WGR and Buffalo three to seven.
I'll have Warren Sharp on at 4:00 Eastern.
And then tonight I'm on the FFPC network to commentate on a big
gorilla draft. Saucing the draft.
Is that what we still say or is that yesterday's?
In the sauce. Saucing is only if you're being.
Rude. You have to be rude,
intentionally sarcastic. And horrible and harsh, like
like that restaurant in Chicago. What's the one?
Or they're mean to you on purpose.
Oh, it's wieners. The Wiener dot there's like.
Wiener no. Something some I, I don't.
Think it would be my my soup? Soup Nazis.
For sure, yeah. Yeah.
Got it. Soup Nazi for sure.
That might not be what you get for.
Me tonight. Ed Debevx.
All right.
Thank you, guys. Thanks everybody for watching
and listening. Ship chasing tomorrow, by the
way. Thursday.
Thursday, Thursday.
It's Thanks. OK.
Thanks for watching, listening. Mike, Pat, Jacob Davis.
We'll see you next week.