1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,640 One week until the NFL draft. So we got a cram here and we got 2 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:08,240 a great guest today, Fantasy Life's Dwayne McFarland. 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:12,840 He brings with him a supermodel prospecting and giving these 4 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:17,200 guys, you know, numerical ranks that can help us sort and order 5 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:19,840 these guys for a rookie drafts, obviously for our ongoing best 6 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:21,240 ball drafts. And we're going to talk about 7 00:00:21,240 --> 00:00:24,040 the players that the model is higher on, lower on than 8 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,320 consensus than the market. Going to be a great conversation 9 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:28,720 with Dwayne. This is ship chasing with Pete, 10 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:39,360 Pat and Davis Pat Fryer, Helmo, Anita Hand job. 11 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,160 Exercise Jamar Alpha. Play Chase. 12 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:47,320 You. Can't handle the heat. 13 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:49,400 It looks like we're finally at this point, you're right. 14 00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:01,080 All right, Dwayne, welcome back to the SHOW. 15 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,560 You've been hard at work in the lab. 16 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:05,120 Are you getting excited for the NFL Draft? 17 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:07,840 Oh yeah, I mean, absolutely. I've been dumb. 18 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,160 I I finished all the supermodel stuff like a month ago, I 19 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:12,040 updated it with all the updated draft capital. 20 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,640 But it's like, yeah, now it's just like the the countdown. 21 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,960 So yeah, super excited. But man, like what an intro? 22 00:01:16,960 --> 00:01:19,280 Like you guys just have fun all the time on your show. 23 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,160 It's like what? That tells me you guys are all a 24 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:25,160 ball of laughs. Dwayne, Dwayne said. 25 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,400 Was wondering where I was in the the stream yard hopper and I 26 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:31,680 told him we had different call times than some of the more 27 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:33,840 professional shows he's. Yeah, that's true. 28 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,720 That's true. I showed up about 3 minutes 29 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,920 before and I was like, look at me, I'm such a professional. 30 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:42,760 It's what it's. It's so true. 31 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:47,080 Anytime I ever have you, either Peter or Corrine on my stream, 32 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,480 I, I'm going down to the second being like all right, there are 33 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,440 these dudes showing up with you and Peter. 34 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,320 I know you always will. Karain sometimes will roll in 35 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,280 like 3 minutes late and I'll be like, well I'm just going to 36 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,040 start because I know he's going to be there. 37 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,120 That's what they call a $2,000,000 difference when you 38 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:04,440 win 2. Million your life will be a 39 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:08,720 minute and a half late. We do have a if, if fantasy life 40 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:13,120 like the, the, the production team has like a diva rating on 41 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:15,800 all of the personalities of fantasy life and it's based on 42 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,360 how late you show up to meetings, like how uncooperative 43 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,200 you are with the script, all those sort of things. 44 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:23,600 So I'm not at the top of that ranking. 45 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:26,240 I honestly, I don't know where I am for sure because they don't 46 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:28,560 share it with us, but they do talk to us about it. 47 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,400 And if we do something that it's like, oh, moving up in the Diva 48 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,720 rankings. Well, you know, you know how 49 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,560 they back tested the model, so you kind of know how the way to 50 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,920 put your finger on the. Scale to make sure how are you 51 00:02:38,920 --> 00:02:42,320 not trying to like figure out like if I I would want to like 52 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:45,600 create my own diva rankings and then try to see how close they 53 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:47,080 are. They actually you got to predict 54 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:48,440 this you. Know, I think sometimes I'm 55 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:49,680 scared of the truth. What if it's me? 56 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,960 What if I don't want to know that, you know, I mean, you 57 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:56,520 know, So it depends. I will say, you know, sorry, 58 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:58,560 he's not here to defend himself. But right now it's Thor. 59 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:00,960 Thor is at the top of the Diva rankings. 60 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:02,880 We really don't know who's second or third, but we know 61 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,360 that Thor's at the top. Now correct me if I'm wrong, but 62 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,240 I believe that's just because Thor keeps crazy hours. 63 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,600 Oh yeah, Thor. He's like up at like 3. 64 00:03:11,640 --> 00:03:14,280 Like it's very, I've tried to have Thor on shows a couple 65 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,520 times over the last year and sometimes it works, sometimes it 66 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:18,400 doesn't. But Thor and I basically we're 67 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:20,040 like 2 ships passing in the night. 68 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,200 You know, I wake up at 5:00 AM, he's going to sleep at at 5:00 69 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:24,840 AM. Like we we actually just don't 70 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,760 cohabitate the earthly at the same time, basically, yeah. 71 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:32,320 A lot of times they say in Hollywood, right, like working 72 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:35,200 with some of the mad geniuses, you know, can actually, you 73 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,560 know, they're erratic, you know, but that's the price we pay for 74 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:43,280 someone who's willing to rank 500 prospects, which is what 75 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,160 just came out today with the Thor 500. 76 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,520 So it requires some diva to be able to accomplish that I think. 77 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,520 Yeah, like, yeah, it's like being a wide receiver, like you 78 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:53,840 got to have a little bit of it in your bones or it's not going 79 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:57,040 to work out for you. Yeah, and I'm not kidding about 80 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:58,280 that. If you guys didn't see Thor 81 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,720 dropped his his top 500 today, I had to look it up. 82 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,960 I was like 257 players get drafted in the NFL draft and 83 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,160 this guy came out with a big board with 500 players. 84 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,760 So if you were a UDFA freak, the fun part in it is he has a 85 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,760 player comp for every single one of those 500 players. 86 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,399 Well, so. And I think he really tries to 87 00:04:18,399 --> 00:04:21,079 have them not repeat like he tries to not use the same comp 88 00:04:21,079 --> 00:04:23,680 again. If I had a list of 500 players 89 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:25,680 by the time I got to the end, like I probably would have used 90 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:31,920 Drake London like 74 times. Yeah, Dwayne, do you want to be 91 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:35,440 the 900th person to compare Ted Macmillan to Drake London or do 92 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,640 you have a fresher comp? I have to say that the model did 93 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:42,080 compare Drake London to Tetmillan out of the gate, but I 94 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,600 do want to note that it was one of the first people to throw 95 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,560 that comp out there. But yeah, I mean, you, you can 96 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:49,240 go a lot of different ways with Drake London. 97 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,320 What's interesting about these models is whenever I look at 98 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:56,520 them, the thing I try to think about the most like is at first 99 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,720 I look at like, what are the historical hit rates based on 100 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:00,440 the model, right? If we know that it's got like 101 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:04,440 this predictive nature to it and based on like how that those 102 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,440 numbers look, then I try to kind of select my comps to paint like 103 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:09,000 this realistic range of outcomes. 104 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:11,800 But some people will only pick good receivers, right? 105 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,080 So if you look at Drake London, I did. 106 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,240 I mean, I mean, I did have Drake London in there with Ted 107 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,160 McMillan, but it also had Romo Dunze. 108 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,240 He was one spot off in the supermodel rating from Romo 109 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:22,760 Dunze. And then the other one was 110 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:24,920 Nikhil Harry, right? Sometimes these guys bust. 111 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,560 And that was his closest profile for a player that was, you know, 112 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,680 similar to him, you know, in the model that also wasn't good. 113 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:34,600 But but I can't say for TET, 100% of his comps at least 114 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:36,800 became a wide receiver 3 within the first three years. 115 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,600 So that automatically should probably try to knockout and 116 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:41,200 kill Harry. But I at least wanted to give 117 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,480 like, hey, man, everything just goes completely wrong here. 118 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:45,640 Like this would be the guy that he would be the closest to. 119 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,800 I honestly think that's one of the really valuable things about 120 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:53,480 doing model and statistical driven comps is that you get 121 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:57,040 guys where you're like, Oh no, like trailing Burks came up for 122 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,080 me with with Ted McMillan and you're like, yeah, they were 123 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,080 both, you know, very productive 3 year guy. 124 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,000 Like there's thing, there's reasons that they're they're 125 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,240 kind of similar. Once you once you hear the word 126 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,320 power slot, you have to enjoy Trailon Burks. 127 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,240 Power. Power slot has come up with tet 128 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:15,160 Juju also came up for me, which is a a really interesting one. 129 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,880 That's another reason I like him is sometimes like is Juju a good 130 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,240 Juju is like honestly like a very bullish comp, but also 131 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,200 we're we're so like conditioned to thinking about. 132 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:24,680 Juju Juju would have been awesome. 133 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:26,400 Juju. Juju would have been awesome if 134 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:29,360 he never hurt his knee. Juju. 135 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,080 Juju's like the the wide receiver version of Deshaun 136 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:33,800 Watson without the off the field stuff. 137 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:35,800 Like people that are just now coming around, they're like, oh, 138 00:06:35,840 --> 00:06:37,200 Juju terrible. Yeah. 139 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:38,720 Yeah. Like you're like, dude, Deshaun 140 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,200 Watson used to score like 23 fancy points a game, guys. 141 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:42,880 I promise. Like at one point his career, 142 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,160 like you wanted him. It's just what's that happening? 143 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:47,760 It's like a first round dynasty. Pick after one of those. 144 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,320 Years. Yeah, after his breakout, he. 145 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,240 Was on the cover of Madden. Dude, Juju just missed you, go 146 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,720 look it up. I I believe you. 147 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:00,680 I believe Madden 2017, he was like the guy who was in the 148 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:04,440 commercials like. We put up with like three 149 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,040 seasons of non production and still drafted him in the sixth 150 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:09,760 round like that we had so. Because we were still like, he's 151 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:11,400 23. Like, how's he running? 152 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:13,040 That was still 23 at that point, right? 153 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:18,040 Now, Dwayne, can I sell you on a new way to generate comps? 154 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:18,800 It's. Particularly. 155 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,280 Oh yeah, man, absolutely. I'm down for fun things. 156 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,520 So this is this is actually Karine and I have been doing 157 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:26,000 this with. Prospects for like the last. 158 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:30,600 Couple weeks you have you have you have the Charmander, the 159 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,840 Char Million and the Charizard version of the prospects. 160 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,760 The Charizard obviously being that would be Drake London's 161 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:41,240 probably not a Charizard, right? The the Charizard would be like. 162 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,560 He might be a Vincent. Jackson Vincent Jackson you know 163 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:48,000 if and and Tet and then the Charmander would be trailing 164 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,520 Bergs. It works really good for people 165 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:52,880 who are watching best ball fantasy football draft in March. 166 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,640 Yeah, they're like, they're like, really I. 167 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:58,840 I feel like if I tried that on the fly today, like might get 168 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:01,720 more viewers for you guys, but you know, I don't know enough 169 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:03,960 about I'll I'll be honest, I don't know enough about Pokémon, 170 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:05,080 but I could get. I was going to say here. 171 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,120 Probably like he would. He would be like your guy. 172 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,840 He would be the dude. Yeah, because we will sometimes 173 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,560 use different Pokémon depending on the type of prospect. 174 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,200 That gives you a little window into the architect. 175 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,520 It's very important. Yeah, you see me glaze over at 176 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:18,560 that point. It's not because I'm 177 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:20,360 disinterested. I just don't understand. 178 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:21,640 Like I won't know what's happening. 179 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,760 So I, you know, I do think one of the interesting things with 180 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,160 the, with the model is how much draft capitals obviously 181 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:30,480 impacting it. I know the other day I was 182 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,159 writing about Kyle Williams cuz he was steaming up the draft 183 00:08:33,159 --> 00:08:35,880 board and I asked you like, if he gets early day 2, like the 184 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:37,840 rumor was like, how much does that change? 185 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:40,200 And I think it bumped him from a 67 to a 70. 186 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,320 But what are the typical? Like how much can a player swing 187 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:48,040 based on on draft capital alone? It can be quite a bit. 188 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,360 I mean, it's the number one driver in the model. 189 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,400 Obviously, like it's all this is all based off of testing. 190 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:56,000 Like I've tested everything under the sun like that I can 191 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:57,920 get my hands on to future production. 192 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:00,680 And then once I've done that and I find the strongest things, 193 00:09:00,680 --> 00:09:03,920 then I like cross test all those things to one another to see 194 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,000 like where you just have potential overlap and you're 195 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,240 like double counting things and then you start eliminating. 196 00:09:08,560 --> 00:09:11,520 So honestly, like the model, even though I study new things 197 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,680 every year, Pete, it gets, it's actually gotten simpler. 198 00:09:14,680 --> 00:09:18,360 So a great way to think about draft capital is like draft 199 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,160 Capital plus production rating plus film rating. 200 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:22,760 Actually like is really additive. 201 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,600 Like you go from making your draft, what the draft capital 202 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:27,240 does by itself to being much better. 203 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:29,800 So draft capital is like really your starting point and then 204 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:31,680 you're trying to find the components that are really 205 00:09:31,680 --> 00:09:34,000 strong that also make the model stronger. 206 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:37,920 But it's unique because like for tight ends, having athleticism 207 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,760 in there really helps the model. Having the speed score for 208 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:42,520 running backs, it helps having the speed score in there. 209 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:44,840 But then when you do it for wide receiver, it actually makes the 210 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:48,360 model worse, which tells us NFL teams are already accounting for 211 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,040 the 40 time, actually probably too much right in the way that 212 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:54,080 they value these wide receivers. So ultimately what it comes down 213 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,120 to is draft capital is the starting point. 214 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,960 And when I say draft capital, I don't mean draft pick like. 215 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,360 So when you think of the word like draft pick, you would just 216 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:04,640 be talking pick one, pick two, pick three, pick four, pick 217 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:06,800 five. And what I've done is I've gone 218 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,240 and I've used Chase Stewart's the chart that he created, 219 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,800 essentially it's the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, but he 220 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:15,120 updated it and made it for like, you know, not the Stone Age, 221 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:18,520 like for like today's NFL. And sorry, Jimmy, I love Jimmy 222 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:20,400 Johnson, but you know, he he updated it. 223 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,720 And So what happens is early in the draft, basically between 224 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,720 rounds one and two, you guys know this like the value of a 225 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:29,200 draft picks, not linear. Like when you move from pick one 226 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,120 to two to three to four, you don't get this equal drop off 227 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:33,600 right? And the value of the players 228 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,640 early in those rounds, you really get this logarithmic 229 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:37,960 curve. I mean, so it's like basically 230 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:41,480 like I it's, it's like a, you know, a Cliff that then starts 231 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:44,480 to smooth, smooth out and it gets really flat towards the end 232 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:46,680 of round two on through the rest of the draft. 233 00:10:46,680 --> 00:10:49,160 So Pete, to answer your question, for a player like Kyle 234 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,720 Williams, he was supposed to be, he was undrafted When I wrote 235 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,160 the first version of the supermodel a month ago, he was 236 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:57,240 projected to go undrafted, stay well. 237 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:00,840 Then he moved into like round six and then Chris Sims came out 238 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,480 with his thing and that's obviously influenced the market. 239 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,120 And now you're hearing these team visits and the the 240 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:08,200 potential pairing with Cam Ward, all this stuff. 241 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:09,840 So now people are saying he's around to pick. 242 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:13,560 So what happens in a case like that is, yeah, he's getting 243 00:11:13,560 --> 00:11:16,640 credit for moving up, but it's not as much as what some people 244 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:18,200 think. And I've had people ask me that. 245 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:20,040 They're like, man, well, you know, Kyle Williams moved from 246 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:23,440 undrafted to like now he's picked 91 in the model. 247 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,520 And I and I was like, well, because that's not as big of a 248 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,400 difference. It would have been a much bigger 249 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,400 difference. Like what Matthew Golden did is 250 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:33,520 a way bigger difference because he went from being a guy that 251 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,040 people thought would go at the end of round two, like before 252 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,680 the college playoffs started to being a guy that's now pick 20 253 00:11:39,680 --> 00:11:42,240 or so. And round one, that's a bigger 254 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,800 move because of the way that the drop off and what the value, 255 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:47,800 what the value of a draft pick is. 256 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:49,880 It's much higher in the early 2 rounds. 257 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,840 So it matters for all of them, but it's relative right to where 258 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,440 you're going in the draft. So if you go 5 picks earlier in 259 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:58,280 round five, it's probably not going to change your score 260 00:11:58,280 --> 00:11:59,360 early. All in the model. 261 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,920 If you move 5 picks in round one, it will make it will make 262 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:04,640 it a significant difference in the model. 263 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:05,880 You'll probably move a point or two. 264 00:12:07,560 --> 00:12:08,960 Jaden Higgins would be another guy, right? 265 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:10,640 That's that's made a big, big rise. 266 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:14,280 Yeah, he's still in Round 2. Yeah, he, yeah, he's moved up 267 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,600 and his move has been in. I think actually when I first 268 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:18,560 did this, he might have been close to the end of Round 2 and 269 00:12:18,560 --> 00:12:21,400 now he's like pick 50. I'm trying to remember. 270 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:22,840 Yeah, yeah, it's you guys have it up. 271 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:25,240 It's pick 50 now. So yeah, he's moved up like I 272 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:29,240 think 16 spots or 15 spots since I first did this. 273 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,600 So yeah, end of round two starts to flatten there, Pat, But yeah, 274 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:36,280 that's worth more then probably. I don't have to double check it, 275 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:38,520 but it's probably honestly the equivalent of Kyle Williams 276 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:40,760 going from undrafted to being a round three guy. 277 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:45,080 What about Luther Burden's fall? How? 278 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,040 How big? How much has he dropped? 279 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,560 He's dropped like 2 points in the model since it started 280 00:12:50,560 --> 00:12:53,960 because he he was, he was looked at as being when I first wrote 281 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:57,400 it, like he had already moved down to the bottom of Round 1. 282 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:00,520 So it wasn't like that first. Some of the first mock drafts we 283 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,960 saw were Luther Burden was like in the middle of round one. 284 00:13:03,680 --> 00:13:05,880 So the first data point I had captured for Burden was like 285 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:09,360 pick 25 and now he's looking at early second round. 286 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,600 So it is it's, it's hurting him, but not as much as it would have 287 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:15,440 had I had I started writing the model, you know, like 2 weeks 288 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:16,880 before. It would have hurt him even more 289 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:21,040 versus his original score. Can you and can you talk to me 290 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:22,720 about Kyle Williams's production? 291 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,520 I just like, I've only gotten it from the film people. 292 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:30,560 I just have not had a super serious data person be like. 293 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:33,760 And This is why Kyle Williams is gonna be a good dynasty pick for 294 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:35,800 your fantasy teams. Yeah. 295 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,040 So the cool thing is, I mean, what this is doing is it's 296 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:39,800 looking across all those components. 297 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,520 But to tell you like how it works Davis for Kyle Williams 298 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,640 right now, I mean, if you look at him like he's getting credit 299 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,040 obviously for his draft capital in the model, but his production 300 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:51,800 rating is an 80 and everything with the supermodel is on a 301 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:55,920 scale of 50 to 100. OK, so 75 is like basically the 302 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:57,880 middle point. Anything above that you're 303 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,960 starting to get into the the better, you know, ranges of it. 304 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:04,920 Now there's two things that go into production rating and first 305 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:07,960 thing is adjusted career receiving yards per team pass 306 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:09,840 attempt. And when I say adjusted, that 307 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,200 word means a lot of things. One I adjust for the schedule. 308 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:16,400 So I go back and I look at their, I look at their strength 309 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,160 of schedule data from College Football Reference. 310 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,320 I use that. And then also their program 311 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,320 quality goes into this like how good of a team did they play on? 312 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:28,560 So I do that by using the football power index from ESPN. 313 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,600 I really love using that cuz all the way up till the end of the 314 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,160 year, right? They're doing simulations with 315 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:34,880 that. It's not just who finished first 316 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:36,680 and second. They're running like 20,000 317 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,840 simulations on how everything can finish, you know, based on 318 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,920 all the different components. So power index then determines 319 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:44,680 like how good of a team you played on. 320 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,920 And so that starts to tell us, OK, great, how how good were 321 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,920 probably the players around you. The next layer of that it looks 322 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,800 at all your team mates and like how good they're receiving yards 323 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,000 per team pass attempt were and if they if they are over certain 324 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,640 thresholds, the model actually starts to adjust. 325 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:03,480 Like this is made for Ohio State essentially and from LSU for 326 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,040 these programs. For route run cuz you're yeah, 327 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,520 it gets it gets tricky, yeah. So it looks for thresholds for 328 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,480 those things and then what happens is based on that, it 329 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,800 starts to discount what it would expect from you. 330 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,640 So essentially what it will do, it will say based on your 331 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,000 strength of schedule, the strength of teammates that you 332 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:24,160 played with, how good your your program was, and then your, your 333 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:28,520 age, your age class adjusted stuff right when you broke out. 334 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,560 It takes each one of those things and it looks at here's 335 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:34,320 what your expected number would have been were how much were you 336 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,760 over or under expected? And then those 4 components get 337 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:40,560 weighted and put together to give you this adjusted career 338 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:42,600 ripped up, which is pretty good for Kyle Williams. 339 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,160 It's in the 60th percentile and it's already counting against 340 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,560 him, Davis that he was in a 19th percentile program, program 341 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,880 quality. So essentially 0 competition, 342 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:52,440 bro, you're on the field all the time. 343 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,600 Like everything's coming to you automatically. 344 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:57,360 And then it looked at his strength of schedule was which 345 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,080 was in the 35th percentile going back to 2018. 346 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,840 And that was a 67 rating in the supermodel. 347 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:04,400 So all those things come together. 348 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:07,080 So once you look at that and like look at his career adjusted 349 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,080 RIPTA, that's the first component that's really good in 350 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:12,080 the 60th percentile. And then the other factor like 351 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:13,600 you want things that are complementary. 352 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,120 So there's going to be overlap in this because I use their 353 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:17,960 career targeted quarterback rating. 354 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:20,840 You could argue you want to use yards per route run for this. 355 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,480 I think you can use either one. This one showed slightly more 356 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:27,080 strength for me and I wanted to somehow capture the play making 357 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:28,360 ability. And as much as we think 358 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:31,640 touchdowns are variants, I still the model still slightly cares 359 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:35,040 about them. So he had a 106.5 career 360 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,480 quarterback rating, which is in the 53rd percentile. 361 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,440 So those two things come together and that gives you an 362 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,640 80 production rating. And this is what I can say about 363 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:44,600 him. Four guys expected to go on 364 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,440 round threes, two and three of NFL drafts. 365 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,240 Like going back and looking at it like that stacks up. 366 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,320 If you start to say that, oh, he should be a first round pick, 367 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,200 then it would start to be like, I don't know, like that would 368 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:59,360 kind of be like a stretch for a wide receiver that's gonna go in 369 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,240 round one. Obviously this is looking at it 370 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:05,440 like down to the pick level, but that like that's a good cut off 371 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,880 like to have in your mind. So for second and third round 372 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,599 picks like Kyle Williams is like on par with where you would 373 00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:13,200 think you would be, even after adjusting for the fact that he 374 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,119 didn't play on a very good team and his competition was really 375 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:17,720 easy. Yeah. 376 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:22,319 And when I asked you about if he did go, I think we adjusted his 377 00:17:22,319 --> 00:17:25,560 pick into did the 62. Yeah. 378 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,920 We made it 62, so end of end of Round 2 is what we said. 379 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:34,320 And you said comparable comps, it was it was Tank Dell, Josh 380 00:17:34,360 --> 00:17:36,960 Downs and Deonte Johnson I want. To say deonte. 381 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:40,480 Johnson put him at a 70, he's at a 67. 382 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,760 It would have put him at a 70. And so here's what's cool about 383 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:47,000 the model that I really like and I think where you can pair it 384 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,720 with like film analysis. So The thing is a lot of people 385 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,840 to do their comps will be like, and I'm not saying this doesn't 386 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,920 matter, I will do this as a second layer to the comp if I 387 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,160 have enough people in the comparable bucket. 388 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:02,880 But it doesn't care that one dude is 64210 and the other guy 389 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,560 is 5/10. 2:05 What it's saying is it's going OK. 390 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:10,360 Guys that had similar production ratings, guys that had similar 391 00:18:10,360 --> 00:18:14,440 film ratings and guys that went in a similar range of the draft. 392 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,200 These are their closest comps. And here are the other guys that 393 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,720 graded out as a 70. Van Jefferson, Pat, I believe 394 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,720 Van Jefferson is an all time favorite for you, Deonte Johnson 395 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,920 And then we have Andy Isabella. Yeah, pulled us big time. 396 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,000 And then we have Josh Downs sitting there as well. 397 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,600 And if you go up like one more point in the model, you get Tank 398 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:38,560 Dell at 71, but you also get 22 Atwell, So I mean, you kind of 399 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,360 got up, right. Tank Dell came up for me, 400 00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:43,320 depending on the draft capital. Isabella comes up. 401 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,080 Deonte Johnson came up for me. Danny Gray came up for me. 402 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,240 And then actually I'm in. I'm in around St. 403 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,040 Brown. Nice. 404 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,880 Yeah, I didn't have I didn't have a Mon Raw or Danny Gray 405 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,080 come up in in the way this one works. 406 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,880 But I like theoretically, like just thinking about those 407 00:18:58,880 --> 00:18:59,800 players. I could see it. 408 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,000 The the thing that's interesting to me about Williams in terms of 409 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,520 his production is this is this stylistically doesn't make any 410 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:10,440 sense, but they're both 5th year players in this class. 411 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,680 It's a little similar to Trey Harris where you have early 412 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,960 production at one school and they transfers to another school 413 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,080 and then he's really, really good in the final season. 414 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,120 Kyle Williams had a 38% dominated rating in in the final 415 00:19:25,120 --> 00:19:26,120 season. The thing that's kind of 416 00:19:26,120 --> 00:19:30,080 different about him versus Trey Harris is that actually I'm like 417 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:34,320 more confident in Kyle Williams strengths translating because 418 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,840 his strengths are like he's probably going to be a slot. 419 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,920 He gets open quickly. Like that's you know, you, you 420 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:41,840 read his reception perception stuff. 421 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,000 It's like he's he's really good on slants, he's really good on 422 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,280 curls. So I think it's sort of like, 423 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,760 what's the big, big time upside? I mean, I think if he was Deonte 424 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:52,720 Johnson, we'd be stoked, you know? 425 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:56,120 But more likely he's probably just like a solid slot. 426 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,880 Trey Harris, you're like this dude could be, I don't know who 427 00:19:59,960 --> 00:20:02,160 who who came up for you with Trey Harris Cuz he has some. 428 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:06,280 Trey Harris came in as a 71, so if Kyle Williams moved up to 429 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,800 like to the end of round two, he would get pretty close to Trey 430 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:10,880 Harris. He had a, he had a production 431 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,600 rating of 81, right, which doesn't care about draft 432 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:15,440 capital. That's just looking at their 433 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,040 production rating. And you know, you talked about 434 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:20,320 like when they broke out. So the way the supermodel thinks 435 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:24,200 about like when players produce, it's not binary, like you broke 436 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,200 out or you didn't. What it does is it does give 437 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:31,360 more weight though, to what you do in year 1-2 and three in 438 00:20:31,360 --> 00:20:34,400 college and you get less weight in in year 4. 439 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,720 So if you do really well in year 4, the model will still care 440 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,200 about it. But like you have to do like 441 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,360 really you have to do like Tyler Warren. 442 00:20:41,360 --> 00:20:44,000 Well, you have to be like, Oh my God, we didn't know who you were 443 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,520 and now we might think you shit, you might be a superstar. 444 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,120 Does does 5.21 yards per outrun help? 445 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,120 Does, yes. Yes, that does help. 446 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:56,600 So, so with Trey Harris, like like you mentioned, like the 447 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,680 breakout really wasn't until the final two years and he had a 448 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,480 really good, you know, final year it was strong enough to get 449 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,080 his production rating to 81, which actually says a lot. 450 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,040 But also his career targeted quarterback rating, which is 451 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,960 like, OK, what'd you do when you did get your opportunities that 452 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,280 the quarterback actually targeted you? 453 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,800 What did you do with it? He comes in in the 71st 454 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,320 percentile, which is ahead of where Kyle Williams is, but his 455 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,440 adjusted crew Repta is 53rd percentile, which is actually 456 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,640 lower than Kyle Williams. So they both kind of have their 457 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:24,960 own strength. So he doesn't get open. 458 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,200 At least he's the same catch. Yeah. 459 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,560 Yeah, yeah. But what I do like about Trey 460 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,240 Harris, like and, and these things are more like context 461 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,600 that I used to write about the players and kind of that next 462 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,080 level of like research you're doing as you're thinking about 463 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:39,840 them. And it also helps you like think 464 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,080 about comps, but you know, he was really good against man end 465 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,520 zone. So a 37% career targets per 466 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,040 route run against man. The average college prospects 467 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:53,400 since 2018 is 25%. So way above that 26% for his 468 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,760 career versus zone. The average for a career for a 469 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:59,160 college prospects 23%. And then if you just look at 470 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,880 like how he attacked the field, they were pretty similar in that 471 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,320 like, you know, if you look at the behind the line of scrimmage 472 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:09,280 targets like Kyle William wasn't he wasn't overly reliant. 16% 473 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:14,120 Trey Harris, 9% short, which is 0 to 9 yards down the field. 42% 474 00:22:14,120 --> 00:22:17,360 for Trey Harris, 37% for Kyle Williams. 475 00:22:17,360 --> 00:22:19,840 So like they're pretty similar. Neither one of them were like 476 00:22:20,120 --> 00:22:23,400 crazy deep threats, but they were in line with the 22% 477 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,040 average we've seen from prospects because Trey Harris is 478 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,600 at 22. So Kyle Williams is at So like 479 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,920 what that tells me is both of them actually have shown they 480 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,240 can beat man in zone coverage, Trey Harris to a greater degree. 481 00:22:35,360 --> 00:22:38,920 And then they they actually did attack all four levels of the 482 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,320 field. Now, how that translates to the 483 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,960 NFL, we don't always know, but that's where the film rating 484 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:44,680 comes in. And for Trey Harris, it came in 485 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,280 at an 80. And again and again, this is 486 00:22:47,360 --> 00:22:49,880 this is relying on Lance Zierlein and his prospect grades 487 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,520 for wide receivers 100%. And Kyle Williams is at 77. 488 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:55,320 And I had some good conversations with Lance. 489 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:57,320 He was super cool about it. Like I reached out to him, 490 00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,120 talked about what I was doing, the project. 491 00:22:59,360 --> 00:23:02,560 He gave me a lot of feedback about how he how he creates his 492 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,560 scores, like what are the things he's looking for? 493 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:08,000 And one really interesting thing that I think he has maybe 494 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,680 mastered that maybe some others haven't, or they at least 495 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:14,000 haven't given us away like a number to help us use it. 496 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,440 I'm sure other film evaluators have done it right, but have 497 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,720 they done it in a way that we could measure it and use it for 498 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,480 a model? Is he has been trained by 499 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,800 multiple NFL teams and a big component of it is not just 500 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,000 looking for a film to grade what they can do today, but looking 501 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,760 for traits on film that mean in the future they could unlock 502 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,920 other things. I think that is so huge because 503 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,000 I think, for example, Luther Burden, what do we get all 504 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,440 twisted around? We're all like, OK, well, can he 505 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,440 just do short stuff? Or was that because they didn't, 506 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,560 that's just the offense they wanted to run and make it easy 507 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,640 to get in the ball. And Lance's evaluation of Luther 508 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:52,080 Burden, if you go read it, he he says that he actually thinks 509 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,080 Luther Burden has much more to offer and an NFL team is going 510 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,720 to unlock a whole new level to him. 511 00:23:56,800 --> 00:24:00,440 So that gets baked in to that film grade, right, that he's 512 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,400 giving. And so the model likes Luther 513 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,000 Burden actually a lot because the production's obviously 514 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,120 there. But the caveat is, well, is he 515 00:24:08,120 --> 00:24:09,600 just going to be a gadget player or not? 516 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,160 And Lance doesn't think he's going to. 517 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,280 Now the weakness of the model is I'm completely leaning on Lance 518 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,280 in that area, and as good as he's been, like, it could be 519 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,080 wrong. So my goal in the future is to 520 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,840 try to get other people I could use, but I don't want to just 521 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,840 take like people's paywalled stuff and be like, hey, I'm 522 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,200 putting in my model and I'm going to like put it behind a 523 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,920 paywall. Burden is just obviously not 524 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:34,320 just a gadget guy. He just especially because you 525 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,960 got to look at how varied the production was his sophomore 526 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:38,600 season at the depths he did it at. 527 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,000 And then look at what happened. I mean, who knows what happened 528 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:43,680 with Missouri football last year. 529 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:48,840 But like, I want Missouri I think was live to go to the 530 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,480 College Football Playoff in 2023. 531 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:55,800 Missouri football, right? And he was smashing for them at 532 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:57,080 20. He was. 533 00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,600 And then, you know, everything went off the rails last year 534 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:01,560 but. I think I. 535 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,760 Think the cool thing with the model like it, it's giving him 536 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,680 big credit for the sophomore, but it's not being binary. 537 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,960 It's also it's docking him a little bit for the fact that as 538 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,640 a junior, because that is a year that matters a lot in the model 539 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,320 that he didn't do as well. But it's blending. 540 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:17,520 It's not saying, oh, you got to pick one or the other like his, 541 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,600 his adjusted career RIPTA came in at the 64th percentile, 542 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,000 right. So it's higher than both the 543 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:23,520 other prospects we just talked about. 544 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,560 But the thing with Burden for me too, Davis is like people will 545 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:29,440 say, well, he's just a gadget player. 546 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,000 And Scott Barrett had some really good points. 547 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,720 I did a show last week with Rich Rebar, Scott Barrett and JJ 548 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,560 Zachary and we all talked about wide receivers in our models and 549 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,160 like nerd it out for like 90 minutes. 550 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,120 It's over on sharp angles. If you guys want to check it 551 00:25:42,120 --> 00:25:42,720 out. It is. 552 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:44,560 Rich did a great job pulling us all together. 553 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:46,880 We had fun. But you know, Scott talked about 554 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,360 the behind the line of scrimmage stuff, you know, and the fact 555 00:25:49,360 --> 00:25:52,520 that the other stuff was on like fades from these wide hashes, 556 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,160 which won't work at the NFL level. 557 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,520 And so it's like I could see some of those things, but 558 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:58,520 sometimes I wonder, are we getting too granular into 559 00:25:58,520 --> 00:25:59,960 something that's really not predictive? 560 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,480 Like it could just be total randomness, right? 561 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,800 And it could matter. It might not matter. 562 00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:08,800 But the thing I look at is the dude had a 32% targets per route 563 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,240 run against man. Guess what happens when you get 564 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,800 man coverage? That's immediately jumping your 565 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,520 route when it's just a gadget play, they can't throw it to 566 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,560 you. So you do have to do some other 567 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,360 things to get these targets against man. 568 00:26:20,360 --> 00:26:22,960 That's the 49ers offense. Like Brock Purdy drops back. 569 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,160 Oh, zone coverage. I'm throwing it underneath the 570 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,240 Debo Samuel and he's going to run a freaking screen. 571 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,160 Oh, he's it's man coverage. They're they're biting down on 572 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:31,480 it. Oh, Brandon Iuke's running a 573 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,920 backside slant route that's there to beat man coverage. 574 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:38,560 So like as I dug into it, like even just from a production 575 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,760 standpoint, I wasn't super worried about Burden. 576 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:44,080 Another guy I really lean into is Matt Waldman because I think 577 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,320 Matt like not afraid to make stands on players. 578 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,360 He's got a process that he shares. 579 00:26:48,360 --> 00:26:49,920 Like here's how I grade everyone. 580 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,480 He gives you all the details, more details than most people 581 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,520 want. But what I love about it is like 582 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,000 he follows the process and he iterates on it and he has to 583 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,520 Luther Burden as his wide receiver one, and he's not 584 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,600 worried either about his ability to progress to the next level. 585 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,640 So I think there's plenty of film people out here saying room 586 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,360 to grow for Luther Burden. And so I feel good about that. 587 00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:12,840 Yeah, Burden. I ended up having I was going to 588 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,040 have a wide receiver five with Hunter as a wide receiver. 589 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,600 I ended up having a wide receiver 4I went. 590 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:25,560 I ended up going Hunter Tet Ibuka Burden Golden and it's 591 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,960 just the ceiling that really scares me as from a fade 592 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,040 position, you know, on burden where you're like, dude, if you 593 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:36,160 just zoom out and look at like the most predictive stuff, like 594 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,040 he looks great when you look under the hood. 595 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,640 I, I share some of the concerns that Scott has where it's like, 596 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,440 OK, so like a ton of his career targets on on deep targets were 597 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,600 contested and that was actually like worse in his breakout 598 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,760 season, his good season, that was worse than in his career 599 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:55,560 numbers, so. Like just for the record on the 600 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,760 data I studied, I did do a study on contested catches and it 601 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,320 correlated actually with better future fantasy production. 602 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,800 So I don't think it's because like you want them. 603 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,520 I think it's because the quarterback is such an A massive 604 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:09,240 part. Contested catches. 605 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,440 Yeah, it's they throw late. Like we see this all the time. 606 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,200 Receivers open, quarterback let's the ball go now receivers 607 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,240 covered what happens Contested catch. 608 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,560 So I just feel like it's a number that could be really 609 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:22,000 noisy. I do feel like you could 610 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,640 probably isolate down to maybe quarterbacks that you know, 611 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,360 don't have that issue that are like bad ass and you might 612 00:28:27,360 --> 00:28:29,800 actually have a signal then. Like if if the wide receiver is 613 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:31,840 getting all these contested catches and he has a really good 614 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,360 quarterback that has good timing, it might be a wide 615 00:28:34,360 --> 00:28:36,680 receiver thing. But you know, that's like it's 616 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,400 really hard like to get some of those layers in the. 617 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:43,080 Data you also have to like all of his Yak is coming behind the 618 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,200 line of scrimmage 56% of his career Yak was behind the line 619 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,600 of scrimmage in the in 2023 season, the Goodyear 59% of his 620 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:52,120 Yak was coming behind the line of scrimmage. 621 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,400 So I I kind of like. That's OK though. 622 00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:59,040 To me that's OK because we're adjusting for that because, you 623 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,680 know, yak adjustments we're making on A dot. 624 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,040 We know the lower your your A dot is, the better your yak 625 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,000 should be. So the expectation around what 626 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,760 you should be doing, we can normalize like at a target 627 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:12,400 level. And once you do that, then the 628 00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:15,760 numbers I did Pat like burden didn't come out maybe as high as 629 00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:17,920 people thought he would, but he came out like at a passable 630 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,480 grade. Like where it gets really 631 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,760 interesting is if you have a prospect with a high A dot that 632 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,560 also has a high yak, then you're like, whoa, like this is like a 633 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,880 unique combination. You don't usually, you don't 634 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:31,440 usually see so like burden didn't have that. 635 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,040 But I don't worry so much about the percentage of yak as long as 636 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,840 like after you adjust for his A dot, like you don't see 637 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,400 something where you're like, whoa, 30th percentile. 638 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,680 Like that's bad. Like and he wasn't in that 639 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,760 range. He was still like in the 6667 640 00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:49,760 percentile somewhere in there. It just it's like you kind of 641 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,360 are mostly producing in two ways, deep contested catches and 642 00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,120 behind the line of scrimmage Yak. 643 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,800 That scares me. That's that's a low score. 644 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,440 Combination. It sounds like what we got from 645 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:05,040 Jayden Reid last year where it's like you'd get these massive 646 00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,960 ceiling games where they do some schemed up stuff for him by the 647 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,080 line of scrimmage and then he'd have some big plays downfield. 648 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,280 And then he'd also just disappear or be underutilized 649 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,560 from large stretches, even though the ceiling was always. 650 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:20,760 There burden burden is 1520 lbs bigger than Jayden Reid. 651 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,360 His, his offensive coordinator and his coach are going to be 652 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:24,960 like, you want to go break some tackles, bud? 653 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:26,960 Go for it, Jay. Jayden Reid. 654 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,120 You know how many times in Jayden Reid's career he's played 655 00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,840 over 50% of the snaps in a game? It's like, it's like an 656 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,360 astoundingly low number. And he's only. 657 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,720 I looked, I just happened to look this up yesterday. 658 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,880 He's only played 75% or more of the Packer snaps in. 659 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,120 I got it. It was either 3, two or three 660 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:45,800 games. Yeah, like. 661 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,200 That's that's essentially like his average is like 74%. 662 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,000 Like they they they just do not. That's routes. 663 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,480 I'm talking total snaps. Total snaps. 664 00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:56,080 My bad. Yeah. 665 00:30:56,160 --> 00:31:00,360 So basically Jaden Reed's coaches just do not view him. 666 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,800 They they view him as a gadget player and my guess is that's 667 00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,000 more because of his size. Let me give you. 668 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:06,760 That's fair. Let. 669 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,840 Me give you guys a few names on Luther burden and let and let 670 00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,640 you react RIP them apart. Do whatever you want, but like 671 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:16,360 in the model the way it works. So because I know this is such a 672 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,000 big issue, right? This stuff with with gadget 673 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,960 plays. So here's some names that were 674 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,640 very close to Luther Burden. So Luther Burden had a 9.1 675 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:28,760 average depth of target a 32% of his 32% of his targets came 676 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:32,000 behind the line of scrimmage, 21% came deep. 677 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:33,840 So that's 20 plus yards down the field. 678 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:39,680 Calvin Ridley was a 9.8 A .29% of his targets behind the line 679 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,800 of scrimmage, 19% of his targets came deep. 680 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:44,760 Essentially like almost the same thing. 681 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:49,040 Brandon Iuke slightly higher on the A dot 10.6 versus 9.1. 682 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:52,400 But again, 29% of his targets in college came behind the line of 683 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:56,840 scrimmage. 22% of them were deep 20 plus yards down the field. 684 00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:01,360 The way I'm looking at this is if I would love it if Burden 685 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,640 went at the end of round one because I feel like that would 686 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,840 kind of settle any questions. Not because the model so much 687 00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,240 cares, but because the NFL does think of the I think they 688 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,440 actually do think of the end of Round 1 is like being like this 689 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,640 a marker that they care about quite a bit. 690 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,760 And so if I would love to see Burden go at the end of round 691 00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:22,680 one, because I think if a team took him there, if you think 692 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:26,560 about it, where did Ridley and I, you go 26 and 25 and their 693 00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,720 drafts, respectively. So like, if you went in that 694 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:30,680 range, I think you're you're going to have a team that 695 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:34,040 believes Luther Burden is more than a Leviska Chenault, right. 696 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:37,760 But if he starts to slide into like past the first few picks of 697 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,320 Round 2, I think we could look at that. 698 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,880 It's kind of like a tiebreaker signal of oh man. 699 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,920 Like they, they might really view him like as being a guy 700 00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,080 that's limited and that's why they didn't want to spend that 701 00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,080 first round draft pick on him. But I'll just say this, like all 702 00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:55,040 of his comps in the model, 63% of them went on to give you a 703 00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:58,080 top three wide receiver finish within the first three years. 704 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:03,320 53% of them were wide receiver twos and then 16% of them went 705 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,640 on to give you a top 12 finish within their first three seasons 706 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,080 in the model. So I think like if you're trying 707 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:12,000 to label Luther Burden right now, it's like borderline wide 708 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,800 receiver 2, sliver of wide receiver one upside. 709 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,840 But there is a little bit of like wide receiver three, you 710 00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:21,040 know, wide receiver 4 danger. Like the data's telling us that. 711 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:25,280 The closest comps I gave him were IU, Debo and Chennault in 712 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,640 the model. Well, I'm I'm surprised DJ Moore 713 00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,040 didn't pop. DJ Moore is the top guy for for 714 00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,000 me and. Yeah, I've had a lot of reasons 715 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,040 say DJ, he was, he was close. I could have included him, but 716 00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,040 he was like, I like another point or two off. 717 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:40,680 Yeah, he's close enough that I wouldn't argue with it. 718 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,320 DJ Moore is part of the reason that I'm like, you know, and 719 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,800 like, I had Jefferson come up, Justin Jefferson come up. 720 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:54,680 So I'm like, I don't want to the the downside is, you know, kind 721 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,760 of Jalen Regory, but the upside is massive. 722 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:03,600 So I've been I selfishly, I kind of hope he goes second round so 723 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,280 that we don't have to pay all that much for him. 724 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,360 Like I would love if he went like second round to the Titans 725 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,760 or something. So he has like opportunity, 726 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,520 potentially good quarterback play, but we're not that excited 727 00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:18,440 about the offense. You don't have to pay full price 728 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:22,719 for the upside and best ball. I ended up liking him a little 729 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,080 bit more in Dynasty too, because I kind of see it as like, if I'm 730 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:29,360 going to get the mega ceiling, it might take two or three years 731 00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,719 as he improves on certain things and develops into a more 732 00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,480 complete receiver. Cool scheme. 733 00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:39,400 Landing spot would be nice, like early if he lands with a coach 734 00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,320 where you're like, you know, they would actually be willing 735 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:45,600 to like design if if in fact his profile really is contingent, 736 00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,159 which I really don't think that we know. 737 00:34:47,159 --> 00:34:50,400 But if it is contingent on needing the gadget looks landing 738 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,120 somewhere like obviously, I think we probably all agree like 739 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:55,520 had Debo not landed in San Francisco, as much as we love 740 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,160 him, he wouldn't be this version of Debo for sure. 741 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,280 He might have still been a good player, is still in the league, 742 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,200 getting a second, third contract, all those things, but 743 00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,520 wouldn't have been the fantasy superstar that we got like every 744 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:09,680 other year over like a five year stretch. 745 00:35:10,240 --> 00:35:13,000 Well, and you get the double whammy for the late round one, 746 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,320 right? You get that draft capital cut 747 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,480 off that you're talking about. That's super important. 748 00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,320 But then the last five picks are Lions, Commanders, Bills, 749 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,800 Chiefs, Eagles, I mean. All of a sudden you're going. 750 00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,640 Into literally the best offense. Yeah, you'd want a trade off 751 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,440 from another team coming up to do to make the pick. 752 00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:31,760 Like ultimately would be the best a team. 753 00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:35,120 I think on the Bills, like Bills, Josh Allen with burden. 754 00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:40,840 He would go 43588 and four. So hard on the Bills. 755 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,480 He would just. He would. 756 00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:46,200 Be. You know, it'd just be yeah. 757 00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:50,240 And, and we'd get at least one cut, you know, one on red zone. 758 00:35:50,240 --> 00:35:54,560 They're showing, you know, an animated conversation between 759 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,640 Luther Burdin and John. And that throws another pass to 760 00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:01,800 Dalton Kincaid in the red zone, where Kincaid can't quite get 761 00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,760 his hands on the ball. Yeah, I don't know the 762 00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:06,920 announcer's names, but usually imagine the other one begging 763 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,640 Doug and they've got Curtis Samuel out here again, not 764 00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:16,280 Luther Burden. Do you do you put any stock into 765 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,240 the kind of the character stuff that's come up? 766 00:36:18,240 --> 00:36:20,440 Like there's and it's hasn't been anything crazy. 767 00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,560 It's just like, oh, I quit on routes or like he stuff about 768 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,440 like his family and girlfriend and stuff. 769 00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:28,080 And I ultimately, I didn't even mention it in my write up 770 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:31,280 because I'm like his draft capital is falling. 771 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,120 So he's that's probably capturing it. 772 00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:34,800 But do you have any thoughts on that part? 773 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:36,600 Of it, I let draft capital handle that. 774 00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,880 And the reason why I like is I would just be guessing, you 775 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:43,080 know, I would be just trying to get second hand information 776 00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:46,480 that's already just second hand from the first hand information. 777 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,240 That's probably to your point already pushing him down boards. 778 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,800 Where I think it could be interesting is if you heard all 779 00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,400 those things and he moved way down in mock drafts and then 780 00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,800 suddenly one team took him at 15, then maybe you have like 781 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,400 this flag in your head of OK, but man, I'm not sure if this 782 00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:04,800 team didn't take him, like really, would another team have 783 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,280 taken him in round one? Like that kind of thing? 784 00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,640 Like last year with Jermaine Burton, apparently, like he was 785 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:13,000 off like 60% of the boards. But all it takes, right is the 786 00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,080 one team to take him. That's obviously not a great 787 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:17,640 example because it wasn't like in the first round of the draft, 788 00:37:19,240 --> 00:37:21,400 but I think like there could be scenarios where you care about 789 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,120 it. But assuming that like it takes 790 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,440 care of itself and he kind of goes where we think he's going 791 00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,120 to go, then I'm just I'm with you. 792 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:28,840 I'm not going to worry about it because I think that's what's 793 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,560 part of what's putting his pushing his draft capital down. 794 00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:35,600 Yeah. What about Jack Bash? 795 00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:40,280 He was one, I know when you were looking at players who the model 796 00:37:40,720 --> 00:37:43,920 would be maybe higher on, like agnostic to draft capital 797 00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:46,960 relative to the market. He was a guy that that popped 798 00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,080 for you. Well, yeah, he was lower. 799 00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,960 So like, so he's completely getting carried by his film 800 00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:54,840 rating. So his film rating from Lance is 801 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,160 it comes in an 81 in the supermodel. 802 00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:00,720 But if you look at his career production rating, it's a 68. 803 00:38:01,720 --> 00:38:04,720 If you look at you know, obviously his draft pick value 804 00:38:04,720 --> 00:38:07,800 right now comes out of 65, you know, in the model for the 805 00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,600 rating. But like program quality, 56 806 00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,760 percentile. He played at some good places, 807 00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:16,880 but he spent more time, you know, with TCU he had 83% on the 808 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,800 strength of schedule. But like he just like the big 809 00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:22,720 thing is his adjusted career receiving yards per team pass 810 00:38:22,720 --> 00:38:25,160 attempt. Now he played, he dealt with an 811 00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:28,520 injury, think he had tightrope surgery, played on some really 812 00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,080 loaded teams, but 23rd percentile. 813 00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:36,000 So it's really the production's pulling him down and the film is 814 00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:38,160 pulling him up like and that's how he meets in the middle. 815 00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:41,280 But what I'll say in the model without draft capital compared 816 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:47,560 to the supermodel, he he drops down 36 spots in my overall now, 817 00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,400 not just in ranks for this year. The way I gave you that number 818 00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:53,160 is back to 2018. So it's not quite as big as what 819 00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:56,640 you think it is. It'd be like a 10 point drop 820 00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:59,280 like for this year, like a 10 spot drop this year. 821 00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,360 So, and that's OK. Like I went back and looked for 822 00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:04,760 profiles that were like this, that were like people saying 823 00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,720 like, he's, you know, or I say people Lance in this case 824 00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,360 saying, hey, film looks good. But like the production was 825 00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,080 never there. And you do get some hits from 826 00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:13,040 it. But man, it's really 827 00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,560 inconsistent. Like, obviously we're moving 828 00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:17,840 down in the draft now. Like, you prefer players that 829 00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:21,520 played, you know, tough schedules on good teams with a 830 00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:25,120 lot of competition and then still produce, like, in this 831 00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:26,840 really big way. And they did it even when they 832 00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:28,560 were young. And then, you know, they get a 833 00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:31,240 good film rating like he had. You want all that? 834 00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:36,480 He had more receptions than five NFL players as a true freshman. 835 00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:39,120 Mostly kind of playing tight end for LSU. 836 00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:45,240 Booty Palmer, Brian Thomas, junior neighbors like not not 837 00:39:45,240 --> 00:39:47,280 nothing. I think for for Besh. 838 00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,800 I I literally think the fact that he's white and kind of 839 00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:53,560 bulky at LSU, they were like, you're not a wide receiver dude. 840 00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:54,680 Like. We need you. 841 00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:56,840 We need you to get at the trenches. 842 00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,720 Yeah, the model is giving him some credit for that for that 843 00:40:00,720 --> 00:40:02,280 year. Like he gets credit for playing 844 00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:04,400 with those players and for it being so young. 845 00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,320 The problem is he did zilch after that. 846 00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:10,680 And that's so that literally all those things together. 847 00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:13,560 So without that year, Davis, he'd be like a 5 per 1/5 848 00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,280 percentile I had that year gets him to 23rd. 849 00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:22,880 I have no explanation for this but mate, I mean Mason Taylor 850 00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,320 came in and started over him the next year basically is is what 851 00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,040 happened. So maybe Mason Taylor is is 852 00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,440 really good. God that 2022 LSU team. 853 00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,080 A lot of NFL players on that. Team, I will say this on Besh, 854 00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,520 just real quick, all of the film analysts love him. 855 00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:41,760 Like I listen to Ben Solak with Mina Kimes. 856 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:45,120 He loved him because I try to listen to the film analysts like 857 00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:48,120 when I'm like doing yard work and stuff, I listen to the stuff 858 00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:51,280 like that I'm not constantly doing to try to like help me get 859 00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,200 better and think about different angles to things. 860 00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:56,920 And so Matt Waldman also had positive words about him. 861 00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,120 Lance Erlein gave him a film grade of 81. 862 00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,200 Matt Harmon has talked him up. So I will say, like to a man, 863 00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,280 the people that I like actually spend a lot of my time listening 864 00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,720 to for film evaluations have actually spoke very positively 865 00:41:08,720 --> 00:41:11,440 about him. So the feedback's pervasive in 866 00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:13,960 this case. It's not like one person like. 867 00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,320 He was, he was like the talk of the Senior Bowl as well. 868 00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:18,760 Like he's, he has impressed people. 869 00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,520 Yeah, Thor likes him. So doesn't love him, but likes 870 00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:24,560 him. It is weird that his like when 871 00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:28,640 you look at his profile, you know, there's like, OK, he, he's 872 00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:30,040 pretty interesting as a freshman. 873 00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:35,200 Then he has a 9% yardage share and a 6% yardage share to follow 874 00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,440 that up. He's like pretty solid in his 875 00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,960 senior year, 27 percent, 32% dominated rating, actually 876 00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,400 decently efficient. Not amazing, but like he pulls 877 00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,120 out of the tailspin. But do you look, I'm like, OK, 878 00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,080 I've been training. I'm like, is he puka? 879 00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,760 Am I going to go find like some crazy underclassmen yards per 880 00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:52,680 route run. He was hurt. 881 00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:56,160 No, the yards per runner like bad during this period. 882 00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:59,840 So it's it is strange, like he is kind of the the classic to 883 00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:04,080 me, like the the riskiest thing you can be is a guy who like was 884 00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:06,840 nothing until you went back to school for your fourth year or 885 00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,040 fifth year and then became something that year. 886 00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:14,000 Like literally that that of all flags, the reddest flag that you 887 00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:15,000 could. It's the reddest. 888 00:42:15,240 --> 00:42:17,680 It's the reddest. But it does seem like he wins by 889 00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:23,120 getting open, so I like that. The challenge starts to be there 890 00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:27,160 like like, you know, you look at the career stuff like targets 891 00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:32,960 per route run versus man 21% that's that's below average for 892 00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:35,760 a college prospect. Like and not even caring about 893 00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,880 what round they go in the average college prospect's 25% 894 00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:41,880 like he's below that. He's below it for zone. 895 00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:46,040 His best, his career targets here obviously is low 13%, but 896 00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,120 his best target share season is 21%. 897 00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:50,480 And you know, Pat, you study this stuff like that's nothing 898 00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:52,880 for a college receiver. Like we have guys that get 37 899 00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,200 and 40%. You know, it's higher than what 900 00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:56,840 you see in the NFL for some of these guys. 901 00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:00,560 So it's just I, I don't know, I, I have AI don't, I can't find 902 00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,120 anything production wise to hang my hat on. 903 00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:06,600 I could call out a caveat, and I think Davis gave it. 904 00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:09,280 It was the fact that what he did when he was so young on such a 905 00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,760 good team, I would say, hey, like it's worth, it's worth 906 00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:14,240 noting and the model's giving him credit for that. 907 00:43:14,240 --> 00:43:16,600 But it's not enough to like, overcome all this other shit. 908 00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,560 Are there any you mentioned kind of like getting other film 909 00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:22,320 opinions even if you're not using them in the model? 910 00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,600 Have you noticed anyone that Lance's film grade really 911 00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,960 diverges from the rest of the film graders that are making you 912 00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:31,600 question how much you want to rely on it in the model? 913 00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,920 No, I mean, he's a little higher on burden than some people that 914 00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,560 are more split. So that going back to that, that 915 00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:42,920 was one. But then Matt Waldman also loved 916 00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,400 burden. So but Thor had concerns about 917 00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:47,040 burden. Thor's concerned that he 918 00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:48,800 actually might just be a gadget player. 919 00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,640 So but that's one that's been kind of like split down the 920 00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:54,440 middle. It wouldn't be like, oh, 75% of 921 00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,920 people are saying that this is bad, but Lance is saying it's 922 00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:59,760 good. So there's not. 923 00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:02,480 I'm looking right now. I'll give Lance credit. 924 00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:06,800 Like he had a good film grade on Matthew Golden like early and 925 00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,240 then like the buzz. Honestly, he's had several guys 926 00:44:09,240 --> 00:44:11,680 like this where I'm like, oh, Lance just like had that dude 927 00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:15,840 there in February. So I don't see, I'm looking at 928 00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:17,760 it. I don't, I don't see one that's 929 00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,320 like just sticking out to me. That's like he loves them and no 930 00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,680 one else does. There probably is 1 just because 931 00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,440 you guys know how the film stuff works. 932 00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:26,720 Like if you've talked to one film person, you've talked to 933 00:44:26,720 --> 00:44:29,920 one film person like that. I mean, that's, that's, that's 934 00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:32,480 the way that goes, but there's none that are just sticking out 935 00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,120 to me off the top of my head. It also takes a while to watch 936 00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:36,640 film. So I think some of the Kyle 937 00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:39,880 Williams rise. It's like, do people not get to 938 00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:41,480 him? Yeah, he was the wider, he was 939 00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:45,920 the wider receiver 19 so. So it took you until February 940 00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:49,160 19th to get to the Kyle? Williams film and watched him. 941 00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:51,680 Yeah. I mean, his last name starts 942 00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:54,600 with Awi mean maybe we're going alphabetical. 943 00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:58,200 I don't know. I really do try new. 944 00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,800 Edge unlocked in early Best ball drafts draft the. 945 00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:04,080 Guys, I do tend to lean towards the people that I know grind 946 00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:06,840 this stuff all year and like that's their job. 947 00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:10,960 Like if you think about Lance, that's, you know, he does other 948 00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:13,320 things, but a big part of his job is always getting ready. 949 00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:16,440 Matt Waldman grinds these players all year long, right? 950 00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:19,440 So when they when they get to this point in the year, I also 951 00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:21,800 think that's kind of interesting because they're also probably 952 00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,960 less likely to be influenced by like the echo chamber. 953 00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:27,840 When a player suddenly gets like you've already got like these 954 00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:30,520 strong convictions and you've already spent a lot of time, 955 00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:32,800 like I talked to Matt all the time and he when that sort of 956 00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:34,960 thing happens, he's not naive to it. 957 00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,840 He'll go back and re watch a player and especially if like he 958 00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:39,960 hears something from someone like he really respects. 959 00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:44,280 But I think there's danger in not starting your process until 960 00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,960 like February and then trying to cram for six or seven weeks. 961 00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:50,160 I don't think it's bad. I think it's great that people 962 00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:52,120 do it. Like have a day man, go have 963 00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:54,440 fun. I just know I don't have a 964 00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:58,840 system and like, I would probably be subject to like, not 965 00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:01,200 maybe treating everyone fairly and equally. 966 00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,240 So I try to lean into someone else. 967 00:46:03,240 --> 00:46:06,360 But I really do favor the people that I think are studying 968 00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:09,080 college film all year round. Because here's the other thing. 969 00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:13,360 What's the one component of what we're doing that's the most like 970 00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:15,880 what the NFL is doing? The NFL is getting their arms 971 00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:17,960 around analytics. But some departments are good. 972 00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:20,120 Some departments are not good necessarily. 973 00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:21,960 Like, I mean, obviously they have a lot of smart people 974 00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,800 working in all of them, but what have they been doing their whole 975 00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,880 damn life? Grinding freaking film, man, and 976 00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:30,160 getting trained by other people that know how to grind film. 977 00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,960 So it's really tough to say you're going to get an edge 978 00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:34,120 grinding film. Over. 979 00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:37,240 That's how I've always. That makes their number the 980 00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,160 number. One way they make a decision is 981 00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:42,600 grinding film with some dude that his dad raised him. 982 00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:44,880 Like when he was four he started watching film or some shit. 983 00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:47,040 Like it's, it's a lot to overcome. 984 00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,520 So 100%. Personally, I'm just like, I 985 00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:51,640 can't, I can't beat that. How? 986 00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:53,800 How can I add but? On the highlights, The 987 00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:56,120 highlights are great, I highly recommend them. 988 00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,760 Dude I said something about this on Twitter like 2 months ago 989 00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:00,280 man. People said I was the biggest 990 00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:01,840 Dick ever. So you're not allowed to. 991 00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:04,040 You're not allowed to admit you. You like the highlights. 992 00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,800 You have to assemble highlights yourself by individually 993 00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:08,760 watching the game. And if you if it's from the 994 00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:12,480 wrong camera angle, dude. Opinion invalidated brother and. 995 00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:15,520 You tweeted out all 22 without sound and then you know, ball, 996 00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:16,920 but if you. Put on something. 997 00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:18,640 Some sweet music doesn't. Count. 998 00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:21,280 I think there are people that are doing it that are getting. 999 00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:23,640 And so I don't want to dissuade people like I think Hayden Wayne 1000 00:47:23,720 --> 00:47:26,080 thinks, like, from where he's come like a long way in three 1001 00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:27,560 years. Like I actually will watch some 1002 00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:30,560 of Hayden's film takes. And I'm like, OK, like, I could 1003 00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:32,640 totally see this. Yeah. 1004 00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:33,960 Do what makes you happy, you know? 1005 00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:36,600 Yeah, do what makes you happy. Exactly. 1006 00:47:36,720 --> 00:47:40,400 Well, and but it goes back to at the end of the day, you know, 1007 00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:42,880 there's 2 levels to this, right? There's like just the content 1008 00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:45,240 consumption of it all. People like to watch film 1009 00:47:45,240 --> 00:47:46,720 breakdowns. Like it's fun for people who 1010 00:47:46,720 --> 00:47:48,400 like football. But then there's this aspect, 1011 00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:52,120 like we are trying to find actionable information to help 1012 00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:53,640 us draft better fantasy football team. 1013 00:47:54,240 --> 00:47:58,280 And of all these film grinders, there's literally only one that 1014 00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:01,280 you can use to build out a robust bottle that isn't like a 1015 00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,240 black box thing, that isn't paywalled, that allows you to 1016 00:48:04,240 --> 00:48:06,400 actually search if there's signal in it. 1017 00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:10,080 And just think how much better this would be if all of those 1018 00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:12,440 had the like comprehensive database that Lance does. 1019 00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:14,200 And then you could test them. You could see who's good at 1020 00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:15,920 this. The competition would make 1021 00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:18,640 everyone better at their film grades, less sloppy with it 1022 00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:21,600 because it'd be like, fuck, this is getting aggregated and back 1023 00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:23,400 tested. Like that's the thing I think 1024 00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:24,800 we're missing with it. It's like, let's have. 1025 00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:29,840 More the first person Pete that has to share your findings of 1026 00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,160 how the film graders all did. Oh no. 1027 00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:34,480 Like I don't think I would have it in me. 1028 00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:36,560 Like you just would get real. Well, that's like coach speak 1029 00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:38,160 index. They just launched their their 1030 00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:42,240 mock draft index. Like looking at the the mock 1031 00:48:42,240 --> 00:48:43,920 drafters with the best historical success. 1032 00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:45,920 Because again, we're in this era where everyone has these mock 1033 00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:47,600 drafts and you're like, yeah, they're fun to read, but it's 1034 00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:49,320 also like who's actually good at this? 1035 00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:53,880 It's it's hard to know. You are How much? 1036 00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:57,120 People love the film stuff for clicking for the for the Click 1037 00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:59,120 to get them to come watch something. 1038 00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:03,560 This what we're doing has a very there's a lot of people now, the 1039 00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:06,800 people that love it, absolutely love it and they and they really 1040 00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:10,240 want the content, But like your average person, like this is a 1041 00:49:10,240 --> 00:49:12,840 stretch for them. You know, this is kind of like 1042 00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:14,120 they're probably not going to watch this. 1043 00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:16,520 I mean, sorry, guys, sorry to bring your showdown for the day, 1044 00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:20,240 but like, you know, just it just it just you're used to it. 1045 00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:22,600 It just depends like on the, and I'm with you, Pete. 1046 00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:25,960 I'm like, hey, and I know Pat, you and Davis, you're the same 1047 00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:27,320 way. It's like, how do I, how do I 1048 00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:28,720 provide you with something actionable? 1049 00:49:28,720 --> 00:49:30,400 And this is the only way I really know how to do it. 1050 00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:32,440 Yeah. Yeah, I can. 1051 00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:36,600 I can watch and get opinions on the guys, but like, brother, I'm 1052 00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:39,240 just like, if you were like, all right, Davis, you got to give me 1053 00:49:39,240 --> 00:49:42,120 your truth serum running back rankings. 1054 00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:45,280 They'd be terrible, dude. I'd be like, yeah, Devin Neil is 1055 00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:47,880 the second best running back in this class because Devin Neil 1056 00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:51,520 just looks amazing. But you know, there are a lot of 1057 00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:52,680 reasons to think it's not going to. 1058 00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:53,560 Work. You know what would be an 1059 00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:57,320 amazing like, like a, an amazing like a test? 1060 00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:01,600 It would be somehow all the true, all the film grinders that 1061 00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:05,040 grind the film all year and all the insiders don't leak any 1062 00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:07,680 information around where players are going to go in the draft. 1063 00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:10,480 And everyone has to actually then go do their film evaluation 1064 00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:12,920 for sure. Do you know how much it would 1065 00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:14,720 change? What I will tell you is like the 1066 00:50:14,720 --> 00:50:17,400 model would be the same way without draft capital, but I've 1067 00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:20,360 tested it without draft capital. And then I tell people, here's 1068 00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:21,600 how good the model is without it. 1069 00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:23,040 Here's how good the model is with it. 1070 00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,880 And it's not that far apart. I actually feel pretty good 1071 00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:27,960 about it. Of course, like I want NFL draft 1072 00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:29,120 in there. I'm not stupid. 1073 00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:31,960 Like, you know, I'm going to embrace that and use that. 1074 00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:33,680 But I don't know where film would land. 1075 00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:37,800 If if if that was done in vacuum, like blindly, I think it 1076 00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:39,280 would be all over the damn place. 1077 00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:43,160 It is tough because I mean, like, I know I'm biased, you 1078 00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:46,040 know, like I I think Harold Fannon looks awesome when he 1079 00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:50,200 runs because I looked at his stats and then I and I, yeah, I 1080 00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:51,600 put it on. I was like, I guess duck feet 1081 00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,000 are actually sick. I'm into this, right? 1082 00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:57,680 I don't I don't like, but I everyone's everyone's got their 1083 00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:00,320 own biases as well. It's just like it's hard. 1084 00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:04,480 It's hard without, you know what you've done here with Lance 1085 00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:07,400 Airlines grades to go, OK, this is actually we can actually back 1086 00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:10,480 test. How how much does he add on top 1087 00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:12,880 of draft capital? Because that would be the thing 1088 00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:16,800 where to your point, like the NFLS leaning a ton on on film as 1089 00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:19,560 well. Yeah, so I talked to him and I 1090 00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:23,480 and you know, he bases this all on film and on traits, right, to 1091 00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:26,360 get better. But when you work in a role like 1092 00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:28,000 that, this is my question to him. 1093 00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:30,760 I was like, hey, I got to imagine like you, you and your 1094 00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:34,840 staff and your team, y'all are talking to teams and I know you 1095 00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:36,920 are because I see the quotes, they put them in the write ups 1096 00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:40,560 right around the players and NFL and an NFC scout director said 1097 00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:45,560 XYZ around Jayden Higgins and he said yes. 1098 00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:47,960 He says there's no way for it to not influence him. 1099 00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:51,080 And he does start to get an idea of they view a player as a third 1100 00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:53,760 round pick. So there is still the potential 1101 00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:57,320 for this to have draft capital signal in it as well. 1102 00:51:57,320 --> 00:51:59,560 And when I test all the components against draft 1103 00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:03,040 capital, the one that has the the strongest signal to draft 1104 00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:06,280 capital is film rating. And some of it is that. 1105 00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:09,360 The other part of it is he's kind of following the process 1106 00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:11,880 that they use the most, which is film. 1107 00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:16,360 He's giving us access to like an NFL film, scouts, analysis. 1108 00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:17,960 He doesn't work for a team. He kind of. 1109 00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,560 He works for the public, which is, which is pretty sweet, but 1110 00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:22,280 there would be overlap I would assume, Yeah. 1111 00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:25,040 And he and he said that he said if he talks to a team that says 1112 00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:28,040 they've got a second round grade on a player and he's got him as 1113 00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:30,880 a fourth round grade, he's going to go back and re watch that. 1114 00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:34,160 It doesn't guarantee he's going to change it, but if he like 1115 00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:36,840 goes, maybe watches three extra games and now he suddenly does 1116 00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:40,040 see some things that make more sense, he will change the grade 1117 00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:43,480 again all before the NFL draft. He locks them like once the once 1118 00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:46,280 draft day gets here. So yeah, I think it's it's 1119 00:52:46,280 --> 00:52:49,040 impossible to completely get that like out. 1120 00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:51,480 I don't think there's any way to completely eliminate it from the 1121 00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:55,880 work you're doing. We should transition too tight 1122 00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:59,040 end that I I did put Harold Fannon on the cover one because 1123 00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:02,360 we've been talking about him on ship chasing as Tyler says, I'm 1124 00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:05,880 into this Korean now has a duck foot fetish and it coincides 1125 00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:08,200 nicely with the supermodel because that was one of the 1126 00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:11,120 first things I noticed when you published this year's version of 1127 00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:16,120 how above market you were on Harold Fannon junior and it did 1128 00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:19,920 push me to drafting a ton of him in the big board early. 1129 00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:22,760 So what does the what does the model like with our duck footed 1130 00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:25,400 king? Yeah, I it absolutely loves him. 1131 00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:28,120 I mean his production rating is a 100. 1132 00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:31,440 If any model did not like a dude with a 50%. 1133 00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:34,200 Dominated rating. I mean, yeah, it would be. 1134 00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:36,000 How did this work with? Did the other or were there 1135 00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,720 previous 100 tight ends that are now like 81? 1136 00:53:38,840 --> 00:53:40,080 Yes, like they. How did this? 1137 00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:43,240 Did he break your model? Yeah, he he only knocked Brock 1138 00:53:43,240 --> 00:53:44,960 Bowers out for production rating. 1139 00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:47,480 Brock Bowers, There you go. Top production rating. 1140 00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:50,560 And Harold Fannon freaking just ripped it straight from Brock's, 1141 00:53:50,720 --> 00:53:58,160 you know, pry grip hands A 1.92 adjusted career Ripta is is is, 1142 00:53:58,240 --> 00:54:01,240 you know, the best score we've ever had in that category. 1143 00:54:01,240 --> 00:54:03,600 And again, we're adjusting there for the fact that he played a 1144 00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:07,640 28th or a 25th percentile strength of schedule played on a 1145 00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:12,040 28th percentile program quality. It comes out to a great a rating 1146 00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:15,640 of 64 in the supermodel. So it's already adjusting for 1147 00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:16,840 all that. That's first thing I played. 1148 00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:19,120 Just easy competition. I'm like, yeah, I know. 1149 00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:22,080 And the model gives him, gives a projection of what he should 1150 00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:24,920 have done based on other historical players that played a 1151 00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:28,000 schedule like he did. And he still blew it completely 1152 00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:29,840 out of the water. Like, so I mean, what do you 1153 00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:31,800 want me to do? Like he still comes out with 1154 00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:34,440 this great grade. And then the other part is if we 1155 00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:37,320 look at his career targeted quarterback rating, So what did 1156 00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:41,120 you do when you got the ball? 125, that's 79th percentile. 1157 00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:43,480 So he's like blowing it out of the water in both of these 1158 00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:45,320 categories. And that's what gives him that 1159 00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:48,840 A-100 production rating. Like if you look, if you just 1160 00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:51,360 look at his, to give you an example, his career ripped a 1161 00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,600 period. So just his receiving yards per 1162 00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:56,720 team pass attempt and the games he played divided by his team's 1163 00:54:56,720 --> 00:55:02,000 pass attempts was 2.13. He's a 1.92 in the adjusted, 1164 00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:04,440 right. So it pushes him down because 1165 00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:05,800 why? It's adjusting for his schedule, 1166 00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:08,480 it's adjusting for his team. But once you do that across all 1167 00:55:08,480 --> 00:55:11,680 prospects, he has the best grade ever still, even though Brock 1168 00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:13,160 Bowers played a tougher schedule. 1169 00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:16,280 So the thing with me with Fannin like so production rating's 1170 00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:18,800 great pulling him up in the model A film rating is from 1171 00:55:18,800 --> 00:55:24,040 Zeroline at 77's pretty good. But I think that it's funny the 1172 00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:25,880 things that people nitpick about him, right. 1173 00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:30,040 If you look at it, what his they're like OK, his weight, his 1174 00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:32,800 weight was 241 and he probably put on some water weight for the 1175 00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:35,560 combine, not gonna lie, but still 241. 1176 00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:39,240 If you go back and look at the first round draft picks since 1177 00:55:39,240 --> 00:55:42,280 2018 that were tight ends, like their average weight is like 1178 00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:44,480 247. It's like 6 lbs. 1179 00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:47,640 People act like he's 220 lbs. I've even say I've even heard 1180 00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:49,240 people say like oh he's like 230. 1181 00:55:49,240 --> 00:55:50,680 Like he is. He's not. 1182 00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:54,320 He's he's over 240. Yeah. 1183 00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,120 And I think so. The other thing you hear is, 1184 00:55:57,440 --> 00:56:00,200 well, it wasn't an in line blocker, right? 1185 00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:07,000 43% of his snaps came in line. Well, OK, well what about Brock 1186 00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:10,720 Bowers? 36% of his snaps came in line. 1187 00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:16,440 What about Kyle Pitts 50%, Ty Warren in this own class, 42%, 1188 00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:23,640 Michael Mayer 38%, Dalton Kincaid 40%, Sam Laporta 54%. 1189 00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:26,520 So like he's in the range of all these dudes. 1190 00:56:26,600 --> 00:56:30,120 And also if you look at tight ends, the NFL teams are going to 1191 00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:33,120 take in the 1st 2 rounds and and then the top part of the third 1192 00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:35,480 round. None of them are blockers guys. 1193 00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:38,480 They bring them to the league to be pass catchers and they just 1194 00:56:38,480 --> 00:56:41,160 need them to be adequate at that other thing. 1195 00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:43,240 And guess what? I think the barrier to entry is 1196 00:56:43,240 --> 00:56:45,960 getting lower and lower because we're seeing these guys play 1197 00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:48,120 sooner and sooner like Sam Laporta. 1198 00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:50,360 Sam Laporta was a bad college blocker. 1199 00:56:50,720 --> 00:56:54,240 That was terrible, Yeah. But what's funny is out of the 1200 00:56:54,240 --> 00:56:57,720 same the same people will then say, but yeah, man, Gunner helm, 1201 00:56:58,160 --> 00:57:01,560 Gunner helm was an in line tied in in college like and if you. 1202 00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:05,480 You be careful about besmirching the name of Gunner. 1203 00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:06,720 Helm. Around Gunner Helm. 1204 00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:09,280 Gunner Helm had to had to stay in line and and. 1205 00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:15,520 Blast. His ankle. 71% and so people 1206 00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:18,560 think that automatically means gunner helm is good, but then 1207 00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:20,880 gunner helm had the worst PFF run block grade. 1208 00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:23,520 Now to be fair, it's because he actually was trying to. 1209 00:57:23,520 --> 00:57:25,440 I was. Going to say he actually did 1210 00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:28,800 have to block and got given tough assignments and played in 1211 00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:30,080 the. SEC we need a we need a run 1212 00:57:30,080 --> 00:57:32,240 block grade over expected for these tight ends. 1213 00:57:32,240 --> 00:57:33,200 That's. That's what we do. 1214 00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:35,760 It's. Unironic, unironic dude. 1215 00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:36,920 No, I'm not. I'm not. 1216 00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:39,680 Yeah. It's actually on the list for 1217 00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:43,840 next year. But but my point being is most 1218 00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:47,360 of these guys like we're we're, we are really docking Harold 1219 00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:52,440 Fannon in a huge way for things that honestly have been, we 1220 00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:54,880 could say them about all the good tight ends that have come 1221 00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:57,160 out since 2018 that we care about in fantasy. 1222 00:57:57,360 --> 00:58:00,160 They all had the same flaw. The only one that didn't was TJ 1223 00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:03,400 Hawkinson. I mean, he was at a 73% in line 1224 00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:06,280 snap rate with the PFF run block rate of 69.5. 1225 00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,600 Like he's it. He's like the lone Unicorn. 1226 00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:10,680 Everyone else was like this other profile. 1227 00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:13,960 So I just, I feel like people are overrating it and just 1228 00:58:13,960 --> 00:58:16,600 trying to find a way to talk down about our boy Harold Fan 1229 00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:18,240 and. Pat, the other thing is like 1230 00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:21,040 he's he's expected to go day 2, probably round three. 1231 00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:24,800 Like Xerline's pretty into him. Dame Bruegler's like reasonably 1232 00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:26,800 into him. They're not they don't love him, 1233 00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:28,040 but they're no one's like killed. 1234 00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:30,480 No one's like this guy's like a day three guy, you know, he's a 1235 00:58:30,480 --> 00:58:33,160 gadget dude. Like he's a he's a big slot 1236 00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:37,600 tight end who's great after the catch, you know, and he doesn't 1237 00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:40,640 do everything, but he does it. It feels to me like the film 1238 00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:43,640 guys agree, like he does what he does well, really well. 1239 00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:48,320 And this is tight end where we know that even if the NF LS like 1240 00:58:48,320 --> 00:58:51,400 leaning towards receiving archetypes early on, like they 1241 00:58:51,400 --> 00:58:54,480 don't just draft tight ends because they're big receivers. 1242 00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:57,120 They have to do multiple things at the NFL level. 1243 00:58:57,120 --> 00:59:01,200 So, but we just care about some of those things a lot more than 1244 00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:03,360 the NFL does. Like we care about the receiving 1245 00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:05,680 traits way, way, way more than the NFL does. 1246 00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:08,160 So things like film, great things like draft capital 1247 00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:12,040 wouldn't be as tied to future production and fantasy because 1248 00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:14,920 it's incorporating stuff we don't care so much about South 1249 00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:16,280 film. Writing, actually, what's funny, 1250 00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:19,920 Pat, is the film ratings project really well to future drafts. 1251 00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:22,280 So my I actually think the opposite. 1252 00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:26,320 I think the NFL and the early rounds of the draft actually 1253 00:59:26,320 --> 00:59:28,200 care about the same exact things we do. 1254 00:59:29,080 --> 00:59:31,520 They just they're looking for the receivers now. 1255 00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:35,400 There's a sliding scale of what can they do beyond be good, 1256 00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:38,280 being good receivers. And I think that's where Harold 1257 00:59:38,280 --> 00:59:40,080 Fannin probably gets a little bit of a downgrade. 1258 00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:43,400 But at the same time, like if you go look at the tight ends 1259 00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:45,640 that have been taken in the first 3 rounds of the draft, 1260 00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:47,320 they're they're all receiving prospects. 1261 00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:49,680 They're not. You don't take Tip Riemann in 1262 00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:52,280 freaking Round 2 just 'cause you think he can play in 12. 1263 00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:54,440 Spurman and Allen go on. Second round, I mean you, you 1264 00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:57,560 get these guys who go like that are just straight up not 1265 00:59:57,560 --> 01:00:02,520 receivers that go that. Go in a few yeah, but not a ton 1266 01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:05,320 like most. Most makitty and stuff like 1267 01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:08,320 there are some dudes that are like what's going on like the. 1268 01:00:08,320 --> 01:00:11,640 Tip the tip Ryman pick, I didn't even know who he was. 1269 01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:16,600 When he got drafted right right drew sample because I do this 1270 01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:19,360 work, but it wasn't a sample is. A good one. 1271 01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:20,840 There, There. It does. 1272 01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:23,400 It does happen. Luke Lachey. 1273 01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:28,440 Like if you told me Luke Lachey went ahead of Harold Fan in the 1274 01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:30,480 NFL draft, I'd be like, I mean, I think it's stupid. 1275 01:00:30,480 --> 01:00:32,600 Yeah. Drew Sample was pick 52. 1276 01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:36,440 I care a little bit less less about the ordering is what I'm 1277 01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:39,680 getting at then I then I would at receiver, you know and 1278 01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:40,960 running back. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 1279 01:00:40,960 --> 01:00:42,720 Quarterback, you know, like just give me. 1280 01:00:42,720 --> 01:00:46,480 Sufficient cap skills. Yeah, I, I agree with that. 1281 01:00:46,480 --> 01:00:49,360 Like I, I like worst case scenario you work up, you woke 1282 01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:52,360 up and you had a rookie draft the next day and you hadn't read 1283 01:00:52,360 --> 01:00:54,400 any model or listened to any podcast. 1284 01:00:54,400 --> 01:00:56,920 Like for receivers and running backs, Like I would be like, 1285 01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:59,160 fine, I'll just draft off of where they went in the draft, 1286 01:00:59,280 --> 01:01:01,560 but it tied in like you would have to kind of adjust. 1287 01:01:02,440 --> 01:01:05,640 That yeah, that's my point. But it is interesting, but he's. 1288 01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:08,000 He's going to have sufficient capital. 1289 01:01:09,360 --> 01:01:10,320 Yeah, You know, he'll be a day too. 1290 01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:13,440 Early round 3 would be good landing with an offensive minded 1291 01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:15,880 coach and the other potential path here. 1292 01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:18,400 I'm not saying it's 100% there because we talk about this sort 1293 01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:20,320 of stuff all the time and it doesn't materialize. 1294 01:01:20,320 --> 01:01:24,600 Kind of like the the training camp reports of the running back 1295 01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:26,920 playing slot. You know, we're everywhere. 1296 01:01:26,920 --> 01:01:28,560 We're like guys, it's not going to happen. 1297 01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:32,320 I'm just going to tell you. But but Fannon is such an 1298 01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:36,440 interesting player. Like wherever he lands, I won't 1299 01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:38,240 just be looking at the tight end on the roster. 1300 01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:40,000 I think I'll be looking at the slot player. 1301 01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:42,680 At the slot, yeah. Yeah, like if he went to 1302 01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:46,600 Jacksonville and they were suddenly like, OK, Brian Thomas, 1303 01:01:46,600 --> 01:01:48,720 Junior Beast, you can do everything. 1304 01:01:48,960 --> 01:01:50,560 Harold Fan and Junior, we're going to take you at the 1305 01:01:50,560 --> 01:01:53,440 beginning of Round 3 and we're going to play you in Chris 1306 01:01:53,440 --> 01:01:58,200 Godwin's role as the power slot can block and do like that would 1307 01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:00,680 be like that's my. Best drafted player. 1308 01:02:00,680 --> 01:02:04,000 You can't say things like that. That would be phenomenal. 1309 01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:06,600 Yeah. Get a little motion going. 1310 01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:11,000 Yeah, that's a great example. At the top, we were talking 1311 01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:15,400 about how much the draft capital swings can impact things. 1312 01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:18,280 And like there's there's rumors that Mason Taylor, you know, 1313 01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:20,800 could sneak into the back end of round one. 1314 01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:24,040 But you see just the differences in their profile here that even 1315 01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:27,720 with a projected capital of 45 and 77 for Taylor and Fannin, 1316 01:02:27,720 --> 01:02:31,320 that Fannin is still ahead of him even with that gap. 1317 01:02:32,560 --> 01:02:35,080 I have a question for you guys based on something the model 1318 01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:37,280 saying about tight end. If you want to talk more fannin 1319 01:02:37,280 --> 01:02:38,720 we can, but I have another tight end. 1320 01:02:39,280 --> 01:02:40,360 Go ahead. Let's do it. 1321 01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:45,840 So Tyler Warren in the non draft capital model ranks 24 spots 1322 01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:49,200 below where he. He looks like he looks like shit 1323 01:02:49,200 --> 01:02:53,720 because he is old and didn't produce until his final season 1324 01:02:53,720 --> 01:02:57,680 and was behind two guys in the NFL who were like Fine and Theo 1325 01:02:57,680 --> 01:03:01,560 Johnson and Bretton Strange. I've been I've been saying it 1326 01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:04,600 and no one wants to hear it. Yeah, and the model gives him 1327 01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:06,160 credit for playing with those guys. 1328 01:03:06,280 --> 01:03:09,720 But like, he played with Friar moves too in that first year. 1329 01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:13,240 But in order for it to give him credit, like they have to meet 1330 01:03:13,240 --> 01:03:16,040 certain receiving yards per team, pass attempt, RIP to 1331 01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:18,160 thresholds. And even though those guys were 1332 01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:21,160 NFL draft picks, none of them were like bad asses in college. 1333 01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:24,640 Like his target errors. So he gets a small bump for it, 1334 01:03:24,640 --> 01:03:27,480 but not a very big bump. And he didn't do any basically. 1335 01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:31,080 Like had Tyler Warren decided to come out in the NFL draft last 1336 01:03:31,080 --> 01:03:32,760 year, he would have been like a round four pick. 1337 01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:35,480 And now he's going to be around one pick. 1338 01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:38,240 And the thing that worries about it worries me about him. 1339 01:03:38,240 --> 01:03:41,520 Like, what's interesting is like some of the comments I hear from 1340 01:03:41,520 --> 01:03:44,520 the film people now Lance gives this guy, he's way up here. 1341 01:03:44,520 --> 01:03:48,520 He's my he's my #5 tight end all time. 1342 01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:52,640 I Colson Loveland's ahead of him in the supermodel, but Tyler 1343 01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:54,480 Warren's right there. The take away is they're the 1344 01:03:54,480 --> 01:03:55,840 same pick, the one you want, right? 1345 01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:57,320 They're the same in the supermodel. 1346 01:03:57,320 --> 01:04:00,600 Like their hit rates are the same, but Tyler Warren, even 1347 01:04:00,600 --> 01:04:03,400 though he gets this high, high grade from Lance, like multiple 1348 01:04:03,400 --> 01:04:06,280 people that I've listened to that are like I trust on film 1349 01:04:07,040 --> 01:04:10,160 talk about he's almost the Luther burden of tight ends. 1350 01:04:10,240 --> 01:04:16,840 It's all this design stuff underneath screens, no? 1351 01:04:19,720 --> 01:04:23,240 Dude, an NFL, an NFL team is totally going to let him be a 1352 01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:26,280 Wildcat quarterback. I don't know what guys. 1353 01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:29,520 I mean, obviously everyone knows the first thing you know the 1354 01:04:29,520 --> 01:04:31,120 Bears are going to do when they take him attendance, they're 1355 01:04:31,120 --> 01:04:32,600 going to say, you know what we need to do? 1356 01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:37,200 Get this guy 6.5 fantasy points by letting him run in a 1357 01:04:37,200 --> 01:04:39,840 touchdown from the one Totally. Look what he did with Brock 1358 01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:41,360 Bowers. I mean, Brock Bowers, who was 1359 01:04:41,360 --> 01:04:45,000 historically as, as Dwayne mentioned, the number one 1360 01:04:45,000 --> 01:04:46,400 prospect in his model of all time. 1361 01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:49,160 You know, famously he got to the Raiders and they were like, you 1362 01:04:49,160 --> 01:04:50,520 know, our quarterbacks kind of stink. 1363 01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:52,200 So we're going to let you do some of that. 1364 01:04:52,200 --> 01:04:52,680 Cool. Wow. 1365 01:04:52,840 --> 01:04:57,400 Oh wait, no, 0 designed rushes. For powers. 1366 01:04:57,800 --> 01:04:59,760 But it'll be totally. Different. 1367 01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:01,240 They should have done it though. They stay. 1368 01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:03,440 Well, of course they of course they should have done it. 1369 01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:06,280 Of course they should have done. It well look, Luke Getzi is not 1370 01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:07,680 going to do anything interesting. 1371 01:05:07,840 --> 01:05:09,840 So we'll, we'll see what your two looks like. 1372 01:05:10,520 --> 01:05:13,160 If Luke Getzi was like, you know, he's in front of you at 1373 01:05:13,160 --> 01:05:15,840 like the ice cream shop, you know, and he's, he's like 1374 01:05:16,480 --> 01:05:18,160 rolling up and he's ordering in front of you. 1375 01:05:18,160 --> 01:05:21,280 Like he's probably like tapioca. You know, it's like the most 1376 01:05:21,360 --> 01:05:22,720 vanilla thing you could think of. 1377 01:05:22,720 --> 01:05:25,400 Like you're like Jesus Christ man, get a topping on that thing 1378 01:05:25,400 --> 01:05:28,920 or something. But yeah, tapioca in a cup, no 1379 01:05:28,920 --> 01:05:33,280 toppings. Yeah, no cone, nothing. 1380 01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:37,040 So -20 that's interesting, you know, for him. 1381 01:05:37,800 --> 01:05:40,120 Loveland, you know, is actually sitting there, right? 1382 01:05:40,120 --> 01:05:41,960 Even you know with where. It's interesting. 1383 01:05:42,680 --> 01:05:44,840 I was interested like I think there's a little bit of worry 1384 01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:47,480 for me with Tyler Warren against still going to grade out really 1385 01:05:47,480 --> 01:05:48,920 high. He's got he's got a overall 1386 01:05:49,040 --> 01:05:53,680 overall super mile rating of 84. So Kyle Pitts is actually the 1387 01:05:53,680 --> 01:05:55,760 all time leader overall in the supermodel. 1388 01:05:55,760 --> 01:05:57,360 I hate to bring up a sore subject. 1389 01:05:57,360 --> 01:06:00,520 Then Brock Bowers 91, TJ Hawkinson 88 and then it's going 1390 01:06:00,520 --> 01:06:03,960 to be Colson Loveland and Tyler Warren tied at 84, right. 1391 01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:05,760 But they're they're all they're both above. 1392 01:06:05,760 --> 01:06:09,280 Dalton Kincaid was a 79. Sam LaPorte is a 76, Trey 1393 01:06:09,280 --> 01:06:11,600 McBride 76. So like, they're in a fantastic 1394 01:06:11,600 --> 01:06:13,480 range for and like these players. 1395 01:06:13,480 --> 01:06:15,160 That's kind of the range, right? I have really too. 1396 01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:19,920 Yeah, the I've had Loveland and Warren like back-to-back. 1397 01:06:21,160 --> 01:06:23,320 You know, if, if, if I was just saying the market, they would 1398 01:06:23,320 --> 01:06:25,600 have been back-to-back the whole time in in best ball. 1399 01:06:25,600 --> 01:06:30,600 But I am cooling on Loveland with this Like there's some 1400 01:06:30,600 --> 01:06:34,640 rumblings about his shoulder. That's the only thing for me is 1401 01:06:34,640 --> 01:06:39,480 like if the in, you know, maybe long term that's not a concern, 1402 01:06:39,480 --> 01:06:41,400 but it does seem like it could affect his draft capital a 1403 01:06:41,400 --> 01:06:45,160 little bit. I know he dropped like 2 in the 1404 01:06:45,160 --> 01:06:49,520 last week I believe on NFL mock draft database. 1405 01:06:50,520 --> 01:06:52,000 But I I think. It's been a riser till. 1406 01:06:54,640 --> 01:06:57,720 That point, yeah, the yeah, it it's funny the song and dance 1407 01:06:57,720 --> 01:07:01,360 those two are doing as well based on like draft capital and 1408 01:07:01,360 --> 01:07:02,880 how we're thinking about them. And I do agree. 1409 01:07:02,880 --> 01:07:05,240 Like the way to play it now is is mainly through the cheaper 1410 01:07:05,240 --> 01:07:07,960 one, Loveland. But then the other kind of 1411 01:07:07,960 --> 01:07:11,000 elephant in the room is dodging the Colts landmine. 1412 01:07:11,000 --> 01:07:14,240 And it would be funny to see them flip flop again right? 1413 01:07:14,240 --> 01:07:18,720 Where it's like even now, if the NFL or or the market prefers 1414 01:07:18,720 --> 01:07:22,160 Warren, it's like then he goes say earlier than Loveland but to 1415 01:07:22,200 --> 01:07:24,440 the Colts. And then Loveland goes in like 1416 01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:26,160 the 20. Then I think everyone will flip 1417 01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:29,000 back in favor of Loveland as they're tied in one anyways. 1418 01:07:29,480 --> 01:07:32,000 The Colts are the one spot where might he might actually play 1419 01:07:32,000 --> 01:07:34,160 quarterback. We we should at least back. 1420 01:07:34,360 --> 01:07:35,120 Together. OK. 1421 01:07:35,520 --> 01:07:36,760 All right. You're. 1422 01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:39,600 Back man What's? What's the thing about this is I 1423 01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:45,600 actually think you get more value after the draft because 1424 01:07:46,480 --> 01:07:49,920 people now start to move away from draft capital and they 1425 01:07:49,920 --> 01:07:53,400 start to maybe overvalue their understanding of what a coach 1426 01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:55,240 will do and how a team will use a player. 1427 01:07:55,240 --> 01:07:58,840 And they're also dismissing just the random ass variance that 1428 01:07:58,840 --> 01:08:01,720 happens in an NFL season with injuries and everything else. 1429 01:08:01,720 --> 01:08:03,080 So I think it'll be really interesting. 1430 01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:05,120 Like right now, like I don't know if it's still this way, but 1431 01:08:05,120 --> 01:08:07,640 on Underdog, I was just taking Loveland every time because it 1432 01:08:07,640 --> 01:08:09,680 was like 20 pick difference. And they're the same in the 1433 01:08:09,680 --> 01:08:10,840 model. And that's really what the 1434 01:08:10,840 --> 01:08:13,320 models designed to do. The models not designed to be 1435 01:08:13,320 --> 01:08:16,000 like help. It could you could use it to 1436 01:08:16,000 --> 01:08:18,439 make a player stand. But the reason I made the model 1437 01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:21,479 was to say, Hey, there's these four guys that are really 1438 01:08:21,479 --> 01:08:23,000 similar. These three are all going 1439 01:08:23,000 --> 01:08:26,680 together in this spot and your dynasty drafts and in this spot 1440 01:08:26,680 --> 01:08:29,080 and, and like your best ball drafts. 1441 01:08:29,319 --> 01:08:32,200 And there's this one guy that's the same as all of them based on 1442 01:08:32,200 --> 01:08:34,920 what the model says. And he's going 20 picks later. 1443 01:08:35,240 --> 01:08:38,359 Like, like, that's really the beauty of like the model is to 1444 01:08:38,359 --> 01:08:40,800 help you like try to find that player and like it's Ben Colston 1445 01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:42,960 Loveland, like in early basketball drafts, like he goes. 1446 01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:47,760 I, I, it was 20 picks later. So I, I think it's starting to 1447 01:08:47,760 --> 01:08:51,120 tighten up a little bit now. I want to make sure we we hit on 1448 01:08:51,120 --> 01:08:57,279 running backs as well down the stretch here, Dwight, I'll, I'll 1449 01:08:57,279 --> 01:08:59,600 throw it to you like it. Is there anyone that stands out 1450 01:08:59,600 --> 01:09:04,120 from that perspective of a big swing as far as with draft 1451 01:09:04,120 --> 01:09:05,920 capital versus not draft capital in the model? 1452 01:09:06,640 --> 01:09:08,840 Yeah, absolutely. There are some, there are some 1453 01:09:08,840 --> 01:09:12,800 really good ones. So if you if you look at like 1454 01:09:12,880 --> 01:09:16,439 I'll, I'll start at at the top guys, but we'll start with Omari 1455 01:09:16,439 --> 01:09:19,120 and Hampton. And it's not that the model 1456 01:09:19,120 --> 01:09:20,760 doesn't like him. The model looks at Omari and 1457 01:09:20,760 --> 01:09:23,080 Hampton as a guy that really checks all the boxes, but he 1458 01:09:23,080 --> 01:09:24,880 doesn't have like a hang your hat trait. 1459 01:09:25,000 --> 01:09:27,279 Like as far as the models concerned, remember we're just 1460 01:09:27,279 --> 01:09:31,120 talking what the players production is adjusted for all 1461 01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:32,840 those factors. Then we're looking that, you 1462 01:09:32,840 --> 01:09:36,000 know, their film rating, their speed score and then where we 1463 01:09:36,000 --> 01:09:37,520 think they're going to go in the draft. 1464 01:09:37,520 --> 01:09:41,840 But since 2000, the model for running backs goes back to 2017. 1465 01:09:41,840 --> 01:09:45,640 And since then, like he's the number 13 prospect all time with 1466 01:09:45,640 --> 01:09:49,319 draft capital, but he drops to 22 without it. 1467 01:09:49,800 --> 01:09:51,800 And it. Yeah, so and it's not, that's 1468 01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:53,720 still not terrible. Like we had a lot of good 1469 01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:57,040 running backs like, you know, since, you know, 2017. 1470 01:09:57,040 --> 01:09:58,320 So there's been some really good players. 1471 01:09:58,640 --> 01:10:01,840 Running back. Yeah, he well like that kind of 1472 01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:04,920 puts him in that range in the non draft capital model. 1473 01:10:04,920 --> 01:10:09,240 So again, like a guy like he does everything fine. 1474 01:10:10,080 --> 01:10:13,360 There's not any one thing like you can't hang your hat on his 1475 01:10:13,640 --> 01:10:16,760 on his receiving profile. You can look at it and go, if he 1476 01:10:16,760 --> 01:10:19,280 landed on a team that had one good wide receiver, he might, he 1477 01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:22,880 can catch the ball, He might get like 1213% target share lands on 1478 01:10:22,880 --> 01:10:26,040 a team like if he was Saquon last year on the Eagles and you 1479 01:10:26,040 --> 01:10:28,040 have A.J. Brown and Devon Smith and Dallas 1480 01:10:28,040 --> 01:10:30,440 Gotter, he's probably getting like a 7% target share. 1481 01:10:30,440 --> 01:10:32,000 Like he's not. He's never going to be a 1482 01:10:32,000 --> 01:10:34,320 centerpiece to a passing game, right? 1483 01:10:34,480 --> 01:10:35,920 But there's not many running backs that are. 1484 01:10:36,480 --> 01:10:39,520 But he really could be great on early downs and he does have 1485 01:10:39,520 --> 01:10:42,600 this explosive nature to him. So I still like him. 1486 01:10:42,600 --> 01:10:45,200 Like I ultimately think the best landing spot is a team where 1487 01:10:45,200 --> 01:10:47,800 they immediately plug him into that early down role that 1488 01:10:47,800 --> 01:10:49,760 doesn't have a good passing down back. 1489 01:10:49,760 --> 01:10:52,480 So he's just good enough to like fill in in that role. 1490 01:10:52,480 --> 01:10:55,280 And we just take what we can get kind of like Jonathan Taylor. 1491 01:10:55,280 --> 01:10:57,080 Like we don't ever expect Jonathan Taylor to have like 1492 01:10:57,080 --> 01:10:59,640 this 15% target share. We're like, we'll take the 1493 01:10:59,640 --> 01:11:02,720 10:00, we'll take the 11 on top of like what else he can do? 1494 01:11:03,680 --> 01:11:06,120 I think he. Could even be like a Zeke, you 1495 01:11:06,120 --> 01:11:07,960 know? Yeah, I think he could, too. 1496 01:11:08,040 --> 01:11:10,720 Like, I don't think he's the same prospect as Zeke, but like, 1497 01:11:10,720 --> 01:11:13,040 once you get in the lead, I don't either land in your spot. 1498 01:11:13,360 --> 01:11:16,200 I certainly could see him, yes. Doing doing what? 1499 01:11:16,200 --> 01:11:18,600 And Zeke is a great example. Like in those years where the 1500 01:11:18,600 --> 01:11:21,200 Cowboys were hurting a little bit at receiver, he would have 1501 01:11:21,200 --> 01:11:23,720 that 10 or 12% target share, which was just enough. 1502 01:11:23,720 --> 01:11:27,080 He'd never be a 16% guy, but he could be in that 10 to 12%. 1503 01:11:27,080 --> 01:11:28,400 Exactly. Exactly. 1504 01:11:28,680 --> 01:11:30,040 But he could also be like a Nick Chubb. 1505 01:11:30,600 --> 01:11:32,680 You know that kind of. Yeah. 1506 01:11:32,680 --> 01:11:36,280 So he that was one of the comps for for Omari and Hampton. 1507 01:11:36,280 --> 01:11:38,680 And to be clear, guys, he's. Not that good, dude. 1508 01:11:39,120 --> 01:11:41,400 With with just. Stylistically, I don't he's not. 1509 01:11:41,400 --> 01:11:45,000 He's not the elite runner that that Chubb was. 1510 01:11:45,000 --> 01:11:48,080 But. It's going to be such an insane 1511 01:11:48,080 --> 01:11:51,360 bummer to not be able to draft Omari and Hampton a Baseball 1512 01:11:51,360 --> 01:11:53,720 Mania 6, because he's not going to be. 1513 01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:55,640 You're not going to be able to get him in the fourth round. 1514 01:11:56,400 --> 01:11:58,600 Take him in the fourth round. Now take him in the 4th. 1515 01:11:58,640 --> 01:12:00,040 Round Now he's a. Priority. 1516 01:12:00,280 --> 01:12:03,200 He's a genuine priority. He he's going to be a second 1517 01:12:03,200 --> 01:12:05,200 round pick. He's probably like AJK Dobbins 1518 01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:06,880 or something. I don't want to have to spend a 1519 01:12:06,880 --> 01:12:09,960 second round pick on him. So don't do it now. 1520 01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:12,960 Yeah, I actually think, I actually think Nick Chubb is 1521 01:12:12,960 --> 01:12:14,720 very much in his range of outcomes. 1522 01:12:14,720 --> 01:12:18,680 I, I mean, I, I'm such a Nick Chubb, like Truther Stan of like 1523 01:12:18,680 --> 01:12:21,080 how much I love him. I'm not going to argue like 1524 01:12:21,400 --> 01:12:23,680 throw on the film kind of thing and just watch Nick Chubb. 1525 01:12:23,680 --> 01:12:26,120 He's an absolute beast. Put on the film. 1526 01:12:26,560 --> 01:12:30,120 Dude, yeah, but traits wise across everything, man. 1527 01:12:30,120 --> 01:12:33,360 Like when you just put it all together, they're really close. 1528 01:12:33,680 --> 01:12:36,720 Like I and, and by what we mean is a really good early down 1529 01:12:36,720 --> 01:12:39,680 runner that never becomes a major part in the passing game. 1530 01:12:40,200 --> 01:12:43,200 Now, when you like just, you know, look at all the raw stuff, 1531 01:12:43,200 --> 01:12:45,480 like I agree, like Nick Chubb will probably have more yards 1532 01:12:45,480 --> 01:12:47,440 per carry in those things for his career than what we're going 1533 01:12:47,440 --> 01:12:48,920 to end up with with Omari and Hampton. 1534 01:12:49,520 --> 01:12:52,160 But man, I think they're very close as prospects. 1535 01:12:52,280 --> 01:12:55,160 And, and here's the thing, like with draft capital, like looking 1536 01:12:55,160 --> 01:12:58,960 at Omari and Hampton and where he graded out in the model, he's 1537 01:12:58,960 --> 01:13:02,920 pretty safe. 92% of his comps became top three running backs. 1538 01:13:03,200 --> 01:13:06,320 77% of his comps were running back twos. 1539 01:13:06,520 --> 01:13:09,440 Wait, top top three scores in a season? 1540 01:13:10,080 --> 01:13:14,200 No top 36 running backs so why top meaning meaning a running 1541 01:13:14,200 --> 01:13:19,520 back three sorry good clarifier top 6 running backs 23% Davis 1542 01:13:19,560 --> 01:13:23,960 but but top 12 finishes 62% of the backs that had his profile 1543 01:13:23,960 --> 01:13:26,280 went on to give you an A running back one season. 1544 01:13:26,280 --> 01:13:29,880 If you're considering that to be the top 12 backs, the all of his 1545 01:13:29,880 --> 01:13:33,760 comps like here they are Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Rashad 1546 01:13:33,760 --> 01:13:35,480 Penny, Nick Chubb and Zach Charbonnet. 1547 01:13:36,480 --> 01:13:38,520 I got Charbonnet. I got, I got Charbonnet and 1548 01:13:38,520 --> 01:13:41,960 Breece as well, yeah. And most people get surprised at 1549 01:13:41,960 --> 01:13:44,360 the Breece one because they think that Breece was actually 1550 01:13:44,360 --> 01:13:46,920 even way better than he was as a receiver in college like he was. 1551 01:13:46,920 --> 01:13:49,600 He wasn't. But he wasn't over yet. 1552 01:13:49,600 --> 01:13:51,320 Crane I. Was about to say that call is 1553 01:13:51,320 --> 01:13:55,120 coming from inside the house. No, I my thing with Breece, 1554 01:13:55,360 --> 01:13:58,880 Breece to me is one of them and there's several examples, but 1555 01:13:59,600 --> 01:14:03,360 guys who are sufficient as receivers in college and then 1556 01:14:03,360 --> 01:14:06,080 are, you know, bringing other real strengths to the table. 1557 01:14:06,720 --> 01:14:09,600 We got to leave the light on for them as receivers in the in the 1558 01:14:09,720 --> 01:14:11,840 at the pro level. They could add that to their 1559 01:14:11,840 --> 01:14:13,720 game. Now, if you're betting on them 1560 01:14:13,720 --> 01:14:16,680 to like come in and specialize as a receiver, that's don't do 1561 01:14:16,680 --> 01:14:18,640 that. But like there's, I view it as 1562 01:14:18,640 --> 01:14:21,840 like there's you got your camaras who are just absolutely 1563 01:14:21,840 --> 01:14:24,040 dominant receivers. You know, from an efficiency 1564 01:14:24,040 --> 01:14:27,440 standpoint, they were, they were amazing or CMC, right. 1565 01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:30,440 Then you go to like you're James Cook's who are like flashing 1566 01:14:30,440 --> 01:14:32,000 some really interesting stuff as a receiver. 1567 01:14:32,240 --> 01:14:35,080 Then you've got like a big, big, big group of guys that Bruce 1568 01:14:35,080 --> 01:14:37,440 would be in. So like a Zeke would be in two 1569 01:14:37,480 --> 01:14:39,000 where you're like, yeah, they can probably do it. 1570 01:14:39,360 --> 01:14:42,360 And then you've got guys where it's like this guy's like never 1571 01:14:42,360 --> 01:14:45,360 caught a ball so. Yeah. 1572 01:14:45,480 --> 01:14:48,600 And he had like a 3% target share, like in his best year. 1573 01:14:49,600 --> 01:14:52,440 Yeah, yeah. Well, it is interesting kind of 1574 01:14:53,240 --> 01:14:57,040 seeing how much Omarion Hampton's draft capital is 1575 01:14:57,040 --> 01:15:00,760 propping him up in the model relative to JT Pick 41, Breeze 1576 01:15:00,760 --> 01:15:06,440 pick 36, Dalvin 41, Mixon 48. The model basically says Omarion 1577 01:15:06,440 --> 01:15:09,800 Hampton is should really be a round two pick, not round one, 1578 01:15:09,920 --> 01:15:11,680 as much as I like him, I think. The model. 1579 01:15:11,680 --> 01:15:14,720 The model knows ball. Thank you. 1580 01:15:15,160 --> 01:15:18,160 I'll I'll pass on the compliment because it's not me. 1581 01:15:20,560 --> 01:15:23,440 I need to show up to one of these shows with like a a blow 1582 01:15:23,440 --> 01:15:25,480 up doll. It's like my supermodel. 1583 01:15:25,480 --> 01:15:31,040 Like the model? Yeah, that would be really 1584 01:15:31,040 --> 01:15:33,360 great. Chad, did you have one more 1585 01:15:33,360 --> 01:15:36,880 thing on Omarion? I would, I would note that. 1586 01:15:36,920 --> 01:15:40,240 And you know, I think this is, it makes sense to me that from 1587 01:15:40,240 --> 01:15:43,280 the Miles perspective, he doesn't have like 1 trait you're 1588 01:15:43,280 --> 01:15:46,200 hanging your hat on. I think from our perspective, as 1589 01:15:46,200 --> 01:15:50,320 we think about what he can do in fantasy football production, I 1590 01:15:50,320 --> 01:15:55,040 do think he has the potential to be a workhorse and, and kind of 1591 01:15:55,040 --> 01:15:58,560 like, so there's certain ways that he like doesn't pop, but 1592 01:15:58,560 --> 01:16:00,640 then he's like handling these big workloads. 1593 01:16:00,640 --> 01:16:03,280 So you're like, yeah, maybe he's not going to be as big of a 1594 01:16:03,280 --> 01:16:05,840 tackle Breakers like Javante Williams, but Williams was a 1595 01:16:05,840 --> 01:16:08,360 committee back in college and this dude like handled the load. 1596 01:16:08,360 --> 01:16:10,840 And then you combine that with the expected first round draft 1597 01:16:10,840 --> 01:16:15,000 capital and you're looking at, I would hope because why are you 1598 01:16:15,000 --> 01:16:16,360 spending a first round pick on this guy? 1599 01:16:16,360 --> 01:16:19,120 Otherwise, I would hope that a team is looking at him as 1600 01:16:19,120 --> 01:16:21,960 someone they can just plug in and be a backfield early in his 1601 01:16:21,960 --> 01:16:25,440 career. And then you if you add the fact 1602 01:16:25,440 --> 01:16:28,480 that he's checking all the boxes in terms of sufficient at 1603 01:16:28,480 --> 01:16:32,880 everything, you add that plus an elite workload or at least a 1604 01:16:32,880 --> 01:16:35,920 very high end workload. And I mean, he could easily, I 1605 01:16:35,920 --> 01:16:38,880 think he could pay off the second round pick is like is the 1606 01:16:38,880 --> 01:16:41,600 Broncos running back. If he goes 20 of the Broncos and 1607 01:16:41,600 --> 01:16:43,600 is going second round, I'm not gonna hard fade him. 1608 01:16:43,920 --> 01:16:45,520 He could pay that off. I just don't want. 1609 01:16:45,520 --> 01:16:49,320 I just would prefer to have a big bag now and not be chasing 1610 01:16:49,320 --> 01:16:51,400 later. Yeah, I, I agree with that. 1611 01:16:51,400 --> 01:16:53,280 I, I the model really does like him. 1612 01:16:53,280 --> 01:16:55,960 It's just that without he is getting pushed up quite a bit by 1613 01:16:55,960 --> 01:16:57,920 draft capital and he's been a late riser. 1614 01:16:57,920 --> 01:17:00,880 Like he was looked at as really in the same group is like 1615 01:17:00,880 --> 01:17:02,840 Trayvon Henderson, Quin, Shawn Judkins. 1616 01:17:02,840 --> 01:17:06,200 He was slightly above them when the, you know, mock drafts 1617 01:17:06,200 --> 01:17:08,240 really started getting serious and ramping up. 1618 01:17:08,240 --> 01:17:11,480 And now like, he's moved in to where, oh, maybe he goes to the 1619 01:17:11,480 --> 01:17:13,760 Cowboys at 12, right? Like that's kind of feels like 1620 01:17:13,760 --> 01:17:17,640 the ceiling now. So I I think essentially he was 1621 01:17:17,720 --> 01:17:21,800 probably graded right and then now slightly overrated, you 1622 01:17:21,800 --> 01:17:25,360 know, but to your point for fantasy, he goes in round one. 1623 01:17:26,520 --> 01:17:28,200 They're going to use him like they should. 1624 01:17:28,760 --> 01:17:31,840 They should use him so you. Should please use him if you're 1625 01:17:31,840 --> 01:17:32,920 going to take him in round one, yeah. 1626 01:17:33,040 --> 01:17:33,840 What? Yeah. 1627 01:17:33,920 --> 01:17:36,280 What about what about Cam Scatabo? 1628 01:17:36,320 --> 01:17:39,120 Everybody's the most polarizing prospect here. 1629 01:17:39,320 --> 01:17:42,280 No juice, no juice. Scatabo, they're calling him. 1630 01:17:42,680 --> 01:17:46,920 So plus 10, so actually a a positive thing here. 1631 01:17:47,760 --> 01:17:50,080 If you look at him, you know, in the model without draft capital, 1632 01:17:50,080 --> 01:17:54,120 he's 29th since 2017. If you add draft capital in, 1633 01:17:54,120 --> 01:17:56,720 he's 39th. So the model actually likes him 1634 01:17:56,720 --> 01:17:59,800 a little bit better than the. NFL sleeping on this guy. 1635 01:18:00,360 --> 01:18:02,680 I will tell you the supermodel has a weakness and it's 1636 01:18:02,680 --> 01:18:06,800 receiving profiles because like they're really amped up in the 1637 01:18:06,800 --> 01:18:10,360 model because that's where you get like these massive hits in 1638 01:18:10,360 --> 01:18:12,880 fantasy, right? So I'll give you some other 1639 01:18:12,880 --> 01:18:15,440 examples though. So here are the historical 1640 01:18:15,440 --> 01:18:19,760 players that the model liked more, the non draft capital 1641 01:18:19,760 --> 01:18:22,320 model like more than the supermodel, which is which 1642 01:18:22,320 --> 01:18:24,760 includes draft, which includes draft capital, right. 1643 01:18:25,080 --> 01:18:28,200 And so these had to be guys that graded at least 80 plus in the 1644 01:18:28,200 --> 01:18:31,040 non draft capital model and again had that Tim. 1645 01:18:31,040 --> 01:18:33,000 Can I guess one? Guess. 1646 01:18:33,400 --> 01:18:36,800 Aaron Jones. No, but my model doesn't model 1647 01:18:36,800 --> 01:18:42,280 back to 2017 so Aaron Jones is in it and he was liked more by 1648 01:18:42,280 --> 01:18:44,800 the non draft capital model but it what he didn't meet the 1649 01:18:44,880 --> 01:18:47,640 criteria of 10. Do you want to? 1650 01:18:47,640 --> 01:18:50,160 Does anyone want another guess? And and and all you have to know 1651 01:18:50,160 --> 01:18:52,360 is like receiving bags. Alvin Kamara. 1652 01:18:52,840 --> 01:18:58,160 Yes, Alvin Kamara was a + 10. Rashad was a + 14. 1653 01:18:59,200 --> 01:19:02,320 What was Naeem Heinz? No. 1654 01:19:02,920 --> 01:19:05,360 Christian McCaffrey, although his draft couples. 1655 01:19:05,560 --> 01:19:06,760 Well, I know, yeah, he was too high. 1656 01:19:06,760 --> 01:19:09,440 Like he was too high. He's like, he's like, he's like 1657 01:19:09,440 --> 01:19:11,200 the third best all time in the model. 1658 01:19:11,200 --> 01:19:14,440 So because there's really no way to make him higher, like there's 1659 01:19:14,440 --> 01:19:17,600 no room. Antonio Gibson was plus 9. 1660 01:19:18,440 --> 01:19:20,680 I I included that one in the show sheet with Ian, even though 1661 01:19:20,680 --> 01:19:23,120 he didn't meet the 10 because Ian's always talking about 1662 01:19:23,120 --> 01:19:26,160 Antonio Gibson. Travis CTN Plus 12. 1663 01:19:26,200 --> 01:19:27,760 Is Travis CTN. In there? 1664 01:19:27,760 --> 01:19:29,480 Nope. No, but we hit them all. 1665 01:19:29,480 --> 01:19:33,920 Rashad White plus 14, Camara plus 10, Antonio Gibson +9 HM 1666 01:19:33,920 --> 01:19:37,680 plus 12, and Scatabo plus 10. Those are the guys that were in 1667 01:19:37,680 --> 01:19:39,600 his range. That's a pretty good track 1668 01:19:39,600 --> 01:19:42,880 record. Yeah, Antonio Gibson didn't work 1669 01:19:42,880 --> 01:19:44,920 out, but I think, you know, some of that was injured. 1670 01:19:44,920 --> 01:19:48,040 Like dude, he was on. The he did work out. 1671 01:19:48,600 --> 01:19:50,960 He was a third round pick. He was a starting running back 1672 01:19:51,080 --> 01:19:53,600 multiple seasons. He worked out like. 1673 01:19:53,720 --> 01:19:56,320 He did work out, he just did my. Third round pick standards, 1674 01:19:56,760 --> 01:19:58,640 Yeah. Should we, should I have touted 1675 01:19:58,640 --> 01:20:00,720 him as a 12 turn pick that year? No. 1676 01:20:01,040 --> 01:20:03,160 But he worked out from a career perspective. 1677 01:20:05,640 --> 01:20:10,000 I've got a I've got a mental comp for scataboo that just came 1678 01:20:10,000 --> 01:20:11,920 up to me that I want to get out before. 1679 01:20:11,920 --> 01:20:14,200 It better not be a Pokémon character, Davis. 1680 01:20:15,200 --> 01:20:18,280 I could come up with one real Snorlax ass vibe. 1681 01:20:18,280 --> 01:20:23,320 Yeah, grass type. If remember Alfred Morris, like 1682 01:20:23,480 --> 01:20:28,400 imagine if Alfred Morris could catch Alfred Morris was like 1683 01:20:28,400 --> 01:20:30,480 famous. He famously he was like the 1684 01:20:30,480 --> 01:20:33,360 worst receiver of all the Shanahan backs ever. 1685 01:20:35,600 --> 01:20:39,920 But like super slow, super plotting, but a great tackle 1686 01:20:39,920 --> 01:20:42,440 breaker. I'm still, I'm still woke to 1687 01:20:42,440 --> 01:20:44,440 Scatabo, even when he's going to end up being a take round. 1688 01:20:44,440 --> 01:20:46,400 Pick. So what's interesting like is 1689 01:20:46,400 --> 01:20:49,800 when you hear the film, people talk about Scatabo, like the way 1690 01:20:49,800 --> 01:20:54,040 they look at him is they're like, he's this guy that could 1691 01:20:54,040 --> 01:20:58,000 like do a little bit of he could do, he could fill in any of 1692 01:20:58,000 --> 01:20:59,400 these roles if you needed him to. 1693 01:20:59,400 --> 01:21:01,800 Oh, you need him to be your pass catcher for a game, He could do 1694 01:21:01,800 --> 01:21:03,480 it. Oh, you need him to like get 1695 01:21:03,480 --> 01:21:05,520 gritty and like give you 18 carries in a game. 1696 01:21:05,520 --> 01:21:07,200 He could do it. The way the supermodel looks at 1697 01:21:07,200 --> 01:21:09,920 Scatabo is it's like, what if he did all those things? 1698 01:21:10,520 --> 01:21:13,240 Like, he was actually good at all those things in college? 1699 01:21:13,240 --> 01:21:15,760 And if what is somehow he does land in a role and maybe it's 1700 01:21:15,760 --> 01:21:19,520 not long term, but it's like, you know, for seven games in a 1701 01:21:19,520 --> 01:21:22,320 season, Yeah, right at the end of a best ball mania. 1702 01:21:22,800 --> 01:21:25,360 I'd take that. Yeah, it would work out, I 1703 01:21:25,360 --> 01:21:27,720 think. So, you know, and the film 1704 01:21:27,720 --> 01:21:32,840 rating for Scatabo is an 85 because remember in running back 1705 01:21:32,840 --> 01:21:36,680 for running back, I'm also including their composite career 1706 01:21:36,840 --> 01:21:39,840 PFF run grade and their PFF receiving grade. 1707 01:21:39,840 --> 01:21:43,240 So it's lands airlines grades plus those weighted together. 1708 01:21:43,640 --> 01:21:46,360 So he has a really good film rating grade of 85. 1709 01:21:46,360 --> 01:21:50,640 His production rating is an 86. If you look at his best ripped a 1710 01:21:50,640 --> 01:21:53,640 season like 7. So receiving yards per team pass 1711 01:21:53,640 --> 01:21:57,440 attempt 75th percentile, best target share season 16%. 1712 01:21:57,760 --> 01:21:59,960 So like this guy can be the receiving back. 1713 01:22:00,040 --> 01:22:03,160 He also carried a pretty big rushing workload at times in 1714 01:22:03,160 --> 01:22:05,040 college. Yeah, he's a little older. 1715 01:22:05,080 --> 01:22:06,640 Model's already counting that against him. 1716 01:22:06,800 --> 01:22:09,640 Model adjusts all his production over his career for the fact 1717 01:22:09,640 --> 01:22:11,440 that he did some of those things at an older age. 1718 01:22:11,880 --> 01:22:17,040 So I man, I, I like him and I'll be really interested to see 1719 01:22:17,040 --> 01:22:18,640 where he lands. I feel like he has a lot of outs 1720 01:22:18,640 --> 01:22:21,360 though, because he could do the things film people are saying, 1721 01:22:21,680 --> 01:22:24,440 Oh, you're passing down, got back, got hurt, he can fill in 1722 01:22:24,440 --> 01:22:27,360 and he might just take the job. Oh, your early down back got 1723 01:22:27,360 --> 01:22:28,920 hurt? He could fill in and take that 1724 01:22:28,920 --> 01:22:30,720 role. Oh, you don't have someone that 1725 01:22:30,720 --> 01:22:33,120 does both of those and your starter got hurt, He could do 1726 01:22:33,120 --> 01:22:36,400 both of those things. So I really like Scatabo. 1727 01:22:36,400 --> 01:22:39,120 I mean, his production profile is really good. 1728 01:22:39,320 --> 01:22:41,640 A production rating of 86. It's one of the best in the 1729 01:22:41,640 --> 01:22:43,960 class. Yeah, and and what about 1730 01:22:44,000 --> 01:22:47,800 receiving for me like he's he, he's a genuinely very strong 1731 01:22:47,800 --> 01:22:52,200 receiving prospect who's also like 219 lbs and good and short 1732 01:22:52,200 --> 01:22:54,720 yardage. And he's like his jumps were 1733 01:22:54,720 --> 01:22:57,200 awesome. I know the 40 time wasn't wasn't 1734 01:22:57,200 --> 01:23:00,400 great, but it's like he gets he's got burst, you know, he can 1735 01:23:00,400 --> 01:23:01,840 get through. The he's getting docked for that 1736 01:23:01,840 --> 01:23:04,840 speed score here, right? His speed score rating is 75 and 1737 01:23:04,840 --> 01:23:07,760 the model his speed score was 100 point 450th percentile. 1738 01:23:07,760 --> 01:23:10,360 So that that's that's pulling him down. 1739 01:23:11,400 --> 01:23:14,520 But I still like him. Well, Speaking of Speed Score, 1740 01:23:14,840 --> 01:23:16,200 let's talk. About yeah, I know who we're 1741 01:23:16,200 --> 01:23:17,560 talking about. Mashaal Tootin. 1742 01:23:18,280 --> 01:23:21,080 Top of the top of the model as far as speed score rating and 1743 01:23:21,080 --> 01:23:25,000 another guy who has kind of a wider range in the model with 1744 01:23:25,000 --> 01:23:28,680 and without draft capital. Yeah, this guy would be 27th all 1745 01:23:28,680 --> 01:23:32,640 time without draft capital. He's 49th with it, Yeah. 1746 01:23:32,640 --> 01:23:36,640 So a + 22 difference, he would be the if I just took it out for 1747 01:23:36,640 --> 01:23:39,040 this year of context of this year and just said Nah, I'm 1748 01:23:39,040 --> 01:23:40,840 going with a non draft capital supermodel. 1749 01:23:40,840 --> 01:23:43,800 And just to give you guys like insight, the the non draft 1750 01:23:43,800 --> 01:23:47,480 capital supermodel has a .7 O correlation to future fantasy 1751 01:23:47,480 --> 01:23:50,680 success that ties with NFL draft capital alone. 1752 01:23:51,200 --> 01:23:54,360 If you add NFL draft capital together with the model, it's a 1753 01:23:54,360 --> 01:23:57,680 .76. So like it's this has been 1754 01:23:57,680 --> 01:23:59,760 pretty good. Like even without draft capital. 1755 01:23:59,760 --> 01:24:01,520 Obviously we let's use the draft capital. 1756 01:24:01,520 --> 01:24:03,680 That's a you know, we want to get to the .76. 1757 01:24:04,120 --> 01:24:06,840 But he would be the running back 5 instead of the running back 1758 01:24:06,840 --> 01:24:09,800 eight in this class for the model if I was using the non 1759 01:24:09,800 --> 01:24:13,040 draft capital model. Do you know like how much he 1760 01:24:13,040 --> 01:24:16,000 would improve if you were to take 'cause you have his draft 1761 01:24:16,000 --> 01:24:20,720 capital's 122? Like if he was pick 80, would 1762 01:24:20,720 --> 01:24:22,680 that like how big of a difference would that make? 1763 01:24:23,600 --> 01:24:25,400 Yeah, I definitely like to go around. 1764 01:24:25,400 --> 01:24:27,560 You guys talk about Pokémon or something for a second all. 1765 01:24:27,880 --> 01:24:30,760 Right, so. If baseball 2 is the. 1766 01:24:31,040 --> 01:24:33,480 Chameleon No. What pick do you say, Pat you? 1767 01:24:33,720 --> 01:24:36,280 Give him like 80. Give him. 80 Give him something 1768 01:24:36,440 --> 01:24:38,800 the Yeah, perfect all. Right, I'll just all right, I 1769 01:24:38,800 --> 01:24:44,280 just, I just put it at 80 all. Right #1 running back in the 1770 01:24:44,280 --> 01:24:47,600 club. Jackie Yeah, that's when, you 1771 01:24:47,600 --> 01:24:52,600 know, the model's broke. If if my life's flicker, it's 1772 01:24:52,600 --> 01:24:54,960 because I'm having to change. And it's just the whole show is 1773 01:24:54,960 --> 01:24:58,240 just us being like Dwayne put the guy one O 1 over all the NFL 1774 01:24:58,240 --> 01:24:59,080 drafted. See what? 1775 01:24:59,080 --> 01:25:01,640 Happens make Devin Neal a first round pick. 1776 01:25:02,920 --> 01:25:06,200 What happens What happens if he goes to the Cowboys to pick 12? 1777 01:25:08,240 --> 01:25:13,080 So he would move to a 72 in the model, which would put him in 1778 01:25:13,080 --> 01:25:19,000 the same tier as Caleb Johnson. Cam Scatabo above Dylan Sampson, 1779 01:25:19,480 --> 01:25:22,000 just two points below Quin. Shawn Judkins. 1780 01:25:23,000 --> 01:25:25,240 So that's not a huge move because he's at 7:00. 1781 01:25:25,240 --> 01:25:29,440 But again, remember, remember he's not moving, He's not 1782 01:25:29,440 --> 01:25:32,280 picking up the early round capital where you get the big 1783 01:25:32,280 --> 01:25:35,840 swings in what you would expect. So like Omari and Hampton moving 1784 01:25:35,840 --> 01:25:40,920 from like having been pick 42 to now being pick 25 is actually 1785 01:25:40,920 --> 01:25:44,640 going to impact the model a lot more because those picks are are 1786 01:25:44,640 --> 01:25:47,880 worth so much more like the value of those picks. 1787 01:25:47,880 --> 01:25:50,680 What? What about would Henderson flip 1788 01:25:50,680 --> 01:25:54,360 Hampton if he went back into round one? 1789 01:25:55,240 --> 01:25:55,960 Because. Where? 1790 01:25:55,960 --> 01:25:57,240 Where do you want me to put in Pete? 1791 01:25:59,120 --> 01:26:02,280 Like 28 so much. Press the show Is Dwayne making 1792 01:26:02,280 --> 01:26:04,320 changes to? His and I'm going to forget, I'm 1793 01:26:04,320 --> 01:26:06,240 going to forget and I'm going to publish this later. 1794 01:26:06,720 --> 01:26:09,760 It's just going to be like. Ship chasing the ship chasing 1795 01:26:09,800 --> 01:26:11,560 fever dream version. Of the bottle. 1796 01:26:12,800 --> 01:26:16,880 But like 25 or or 28 something behind. 1797 01:26:16,960 --> 01:26:19,440 Yeah, yeah. Like to the commanders or 1798 01:26:19,440 --> 01:26:22,000 whatever, Yeah. I did pick 25. 1799 01:26:22,000 --> 01:26:23,720 I would love him to the commanders actually. 1800 01:26:23,720 --> 01:26:24,920 Yeah, I would. That'd be so fun. 1801 01:26:24,920 --> 01:26:29,160 Over that, that would be sick. I think it's a life. 1802 01:26:29,280 --> 01:26:34,080 I think it could happen. I, I, I really like Trevion. 1803 01:26:34,080 --> 01:26:37,880 He's my #3 or actually, yeah, he's yeah, he's my #3. 1804 01:26:37,880 --> 01:26:43,000 It's Genti, Hampton and Trevion. Trevion would jump to 79, which 1805 01:26:43,000 --> 01:26:46,160 would put him even with Hampton. That feels right, yeah. 1806 01:26:46,560 --> 01:26:49,560 You would put him even with prospects like Dalvin Cook. 1 1807 01:26:49,560 --> 01:26:53,320 below Dalvin Cook. It put him one above DeAndre 1808 01:26:53,320 --> 01:26:57,000 Swift. It would put him two above 1809 01:26:57,000 --> 01:27:00,400 Javonte. Couple couple questions. 1810 01:27:00,480 --> 01:27:02,840 So this shouldn't involve any changes to your model. 1811 01:27:04,440 --> 01:27:06,960 Where does? Jetty control Z in this year 1812 01:27:06,960 --> 01:27:09,600 right now, so I don't forget later. 1813 01:27:10,760 --> 01:27:12,200 Yeah, that's a good. Way of Lara since his first 1814 01:27:12,240 --> 01:27:15,720 round. Yeah, I I'm waiting on the land. 1815 01:27:15,800 --> 01:27:20,480 Lara, hey, hey, hey, hey. No jokes about land. 1816 01:27:21,600 --> 01:27:23,160 Did you ever get him on the show, Davis? 1817 01:27:23,160 --> 01:27:25,080 I did a little homework. I listened to you guys while I 1818 01:27:25,080 --> 01:27:26,080 was mowing. No, I texted. 1819 01:27:26,080 --> 01:27:28,200 Him, I texted him yesterday and he didn't text me back. 1820 01:27:28,200 --> 01:27:32,040 So I think maybe that's going to be my white whale for for this 1821 01:27:32,040 --> 01:27:34,520 offseason. I have to come back on at some 1822 01:27:34,520 --> 01:27:36,920 point when Jacob Sanderson's on here so I can just pick the 1823 01:27:36,920 --> 01:27:39,160 Harold Fannenbone with him. Like, 'cause you know, I love 1824 01:27:39,160 --> 01:27:40,280 Jacob. Super smart guy. 1825 01:27:40,280 --> 01:27:42,080 He's just wrong. He's just wrong. 1826 01:27:42,080 --> 01:27:43,160 And that's OK. I think I've got. 1827 01:27:43,200 --> 01:27:44,320 I think I've gotten him, Dwayne, I think. 1828 01:27:44,600 --> 01:27:46,720 I think you got him. You already took care of it. 1829 01:27:46,720 --> 01:27:47,760 Yeah. OK. 1830 01:27:47,760 --> 01:27:49,000 Yeah. Usually I'm. 1831 01:27:49,000 --> 01:27:51,280 I'm actually joking. Like Jacob's, like so smart. 1832 01:27:51,280 --> 01:27:52,960 I I I love Jacob. He's great. 1833 01:27:53,960 --> 01:27:56,680 With the like the production based ceiling cases, it's rare 1834 01:27:56,680 --> 01:27:59,600 that I can, I can be the one to to get Jacob and I don't think 1835 01:27:59,600 --> 01:28:01,960 he liked how that felt. So he he seems to have come 1836 01:28:01,960 --> 01:28:06,000 around a little bit. The Genti. 1837 01:28:06,000 --> 01:28:07,920 Where does Genti rate all time for you? 1838 01:28:08,880 --> 01:28:12,600 Yeah, Genti is absolutely freaking amazing. 1839 01:28:13,000 --> 01:28:17,000 So Saquon Barkley is number one all time with a 100 supermodel 1840 01:28:17,000 --> 01:28:19,720 rating, Leonard Fournette a second with 92. 1841 01:28:19,720 --> 01:28:21,480 Now remember, Leonard Fournette went pick four. 1842 01:28:21,720 --> 01:28:24,440 And remember how much draft capital matters. 1843 01:28:24,440 --> 01:28:27,120 And the delta between these early picks is where they're the 1844 01:28:27,120 --> 01:28:30,080 biggest and Gentie. Now what if you gave Leonard 1845 01:28:30,080 --> 01:28:34,800 Fournette pick point? What if we backed up time 1846 01:28:34,800 --> 01:28:37,720 should. We retroactively submarine him 1847 01:28:37,720 --> 01:28:38,920 in the bottle. Yeah. 1848 01:28:38,960 --> 01:28:41,400 Yeah, we could. Can we can we introduce Leonard 1849 01:28:41,400 --> 01:28:43,160 Fournette to the treadmill after his? 1850 01:28:47,840 --> 01:28:51,120 So now Davis wants me to adjust his weight, Pat wants me to 1851 01:28:51,120 --> 01:28:52,880 adjust Leonard Fournette's draft capital. 1852 01:28:53,360 --> 01:28:57,160 OK, we could do all these things and we have to charge you guys. 1853 01:28:57,160 --> 01:29:02,520 No, Ashton Gente is #4 all time in the model. 1854 01:29:02,520 --> 01:29:05,480 Saquon Barkley is number one at 100. 1855 01:29:05,960 --> 01:29:09,400 Leonard Fournette is a 92 rating, and then Christian 1856 01:29:09,400 --> 01:29:12,160 Mccaffrey's a 91, and Ashton Gente is a 90. 1857 01:29:12,280 --> 01:29:18,720 Now had Gente ran, he might have gotten even with McCaffrey or 1858 01:29:18,720 --> 01:29:21,760 even he could have leaped him because McCaffrey was pick 8 and 1859 01:29:21,760 --> 01:29:24,360 Gente was pick 7. If you look at their production 1860 01:29:24,360 --> 01:29:28,480 rating, Christian McCaffrey is a 100, the best ever in the model 1861 01:29:28,520 --> 01:29:30,160 because of how good he was as a receiver. 1862 01:29:30,560 --> 01:29:34,040 But Gente is third in production rating at 93. 1863 01:29:34,960 --> 01:29:38,920 So Prashad White's actually second because of how well, how 1864 01:29:38,920 --> 01:29:40,480 good. I told you guys the model has a 1865 01:29:40,480 --> 01:29:42,360 type because of the receiving stuff. 1866 01:29:42,360 --> 01:29:45,520 But you have to do it because we're we, we're worried about 1867 01:29:45,520 --> 01:29:46,680 fantasy. And the other thing you have to 1868 01:29:46,680 --> 01:29:48,920 remember is when you think about these things and you're like, 1869 01:29:48,920 --> 01:29:51,240 OK, if draft capital's the number one thing in the model 1870 01:29:51,800 --> 01:29:54,720 and we have to figure out how do we become additive to draft 1871 01:29:54,720 --> 01:29:56,360 capital? You have to start to figure out 1872 01:29:56,360 --> 01:29:58,840 what are the potential things that NFL's not valuing that 1873 01:29:58,840 --> 01:30:02,320 matters for fantasy, right? And, and so that's where the 1874 01:30:02,320 --> 01:30:05,520 receiving stuff really starts to come in and becomes such an 1875 01:30:05,520 --> 01:30:07,760 important part, you know, in the model, because people see that 1876 01:30:07,760 --> 01:30:09,640 one all the time. And I'll get DM. 1877 01:30:09,640 --> 01:30:13,000 So like your model's trash man Rashawn White, we had a 96 1878 01:30:13,000 --> 01:30:15,800 production rating. I'm like, well, he did get a lot 1879 01:30:15,800 --> 01:30:18,720 of yards man, for like 2 years. And I know he was a JUCO 1880 01:30:18,720 --> 01:30:22,600 transfer and all, but like his. He also went third round. 1881 01:30:22,600 --> 01:30:25,560 Like it's not like he's some UDFA that is popping. 1882 01:30:25,800 --> 01:30:28,880 NFL did. He's a 76 overall, so the 1883 01:30:28,880 --> 01:30:30,960 model's not saying he's one of the best prospects ever. 1884 01:30:30,960 --> 01:30:33,440 It's just saying his production rating was one of the best ever. 1885 01:30:33,800 --> 01:30:36,040 And oh, by the way, like, his film rating was good, too. 1886 01:30:36,040 --> 01:30:38,520 So, like, film people liked Rashad Wine. 1887 01:30:38,520 --> 01:30:42,000 Yeah. But this nice 100 film rating 1888 01:30:42,480 --> 01:30:45,200 the best Thai Saquon Barkley for the best. 1889 01:30:46,920 --> 01:30:49,600 And it is nice to know that if Gente goes forward to the 1890 01:30:49,600 --> 01:30:52,000 Patriots and they don't have alignment to protect Drake, may 1891 01:30:52,000 --> 01:30:54,800 that that at least he might flip Uncle Lenny in your model. 1892 01:30:56,160 --> 01:30:59,440 Can you rerun Gente as if he played at Alabama? 1893 01:30:59,560 --> 01:31:04,440 What would that do to? The race I technically could 1894 01:31:04,440 --> 01:31:07,080 like I have to find the field where I put the word Alabama in 1895 01:31:07,080 --> 01:31:10,080 and then the model would recalibrate. 1896 01:31:11,560 --> 01:31:15,480 Let's let's do one more here, Polarizing guy, Caleb Johnson. 1897 01:31:16,560 --> 01:31:19,440 Oh yeah, that's a good one. Yeah, he's a really polarizing 1898 01:31:19,440 --> 01:31:21,280 player. Only polarizing to people who 1899 01:31:21,280 --> 01:31:25,680 won't watch the GD film. If they watch the film, they 1900 01:31:25,720 --> 01:31:28,120 will. Start systemizing your process, 1901 01:31:28,120 --> 01:31:31,480 Davis, and we'll talk. We'll get Davis if you will 1902 01:31:31,480 --> 01:31:34,520 systemize your process and you will get a grading criteria. 1903 01:31:34,520 --> 01:31:36,680 We'll put you, we'll test you and see if you can make it. 1904 01:31:36,680 --> 01:31:39,200 Into the Bottle film rating on the On the Shoulders of 1905 01:31:39,200 --> 01:31:43,440 Lanzerlight and Davis Maddock. I want, I want Davis to have a 1906 01:31:43,440 --> 01:31:45,520 time card though. I want to see him punch in and. 1907 01:31:45,520 --> 01:31:47,920 Punch out on this step because. You know, it's all Caleb Johnson 1908 01:31:48,040 --> 01:31:50,280 and Devin Neal. He's like, how's the students 1909 01:31:50,280 --> 01:31:53,720 look like? It's all it's every guy takes me 1910 01:31:53,720 --> 01:31:55,360 about four minutes and 30 seconds because. 1911 01:31:55,360 --> 01:31:57,240 That's how long this. Is on to productions. 1912 01:31:57,800 --> 01:32:01,320 You're very you like an NFL front office should hire you. 1913 01:32:01,320 --> 01:32:03,840 You were so much more efficient than like their scouting 1914 01:32:03,880 --> 01:32:05,920 department, right? Now easy, simple. 1915 01:32:06,040 --> 01:32:09,160 What is your suggested YouTube? Right now it's just other other 1916 01:32:09,160 --> 01:32:12,560 Devin Neal videos. It's mostly it's it's it's 1917 01:32:12,560 --> 01:32:15,760 Giddens, Harvey, Caleb Johnson and then Sam Sulik videos. 1918 01:32:15,760 --> 01:32:17,520 That's all. That's all that ever shows up. 1919 01:32:17,800 --> 01:32:21,520 So Davis is going to hate this. The the the two people that the 1920 01:32:21,520 --> 01:32:25,120 model likes the lease versus draft capital are Caleb Johnson 1921 01:32:25,120 --> 01:32:27,520 and Devin Neal. Now throw it already. 1922 01:32:27,760 --> 01:32:29,360 I know it's, it's complete trash. 1923 01:32:30,800 --> 01:32:34,840 Everyone has to know Thor has already screamed about, screamed 1924 01:32:34,840 --> 01:32:38,440 at me about both these #1 Thor's a Rock Chalk Jayhawk, you know, 1925 01:32:38,440 --> 01:32:41,200 truther, which is really where, let's be honest, that I tell 1926 01:32:41,200 --> 01:32:43,440 Thor that's where the Devon Nil things coming in. 1927 01:32:43,920 --> 01:32:47,320 And then Caleb Johnson's the other guy that he really does 1928 01:32:47,320 --> 01:32:49,560 like. So Caleb Johnson in the non 1929 01:32:49,560 --> 01:32:54,560 draft capital version of the model -23 versus where he shows 1930 01:32:54,560 --> 01:32:57,440 up in the draft capital version, right? 1931 01:32:57,480 --> 01:33:00,040 So it's a pretty big drop. Like with draft capital, he's 1932 01:33:00,040 --> 01:33:03,720 the 37th best prospect, you know, that we've seen, but 1933 01:33:03,720 --> 01:33:07,720 without it, he's the 60th. And again, a lot of this really 1934 01:33:07,720 --> 01:33:10,320 does come back to like, if you look at where he's sitting and 1935 01:33:10,320 --> 01:33:13,120 you look at like the things that the that the model is 1936 01:33:13,120 --> 01:33:16,800 ultimately, you know, dinging him for, it does come down to 1937 01:33:16,800 --> 01:33:20,360 some of this stuff, you know, as, you know, a receiver, right? 1938 01:33:20,360 --> 01:33:24,080 So if you look at him, you know his best ripped in the 1939 01:33:24,080 --> 01:33:27,400 percentile on that 38th percentile, like that hurts him. 1940 01:33:28,120 --> 01:33:31,480 If you look at his career adjusted yards per team attempt, 1941 01:33:31,480 --> 01:33:33,520 which you guys know how that works, you double receiving 1942 01:33:33,520 --> 01:33:37,040 yards versus rushing yards. But it also accounts for the 1943 01:33:37,040 --> 01:33:39,480 schedule and all the other stuff we talked about for receivers. 1944 01:33:39,720 --> 01:33:41,400 He comes in at the 50th percentile. 1945 01:33:41,400 --> 01:33:43,600 So like, it's fine. Like his production rating's a 1946 01:33:43,600 --> 01:33:45,640 76. It's in line with like where 1947 01:33:45,640 --> 01:33:49,000 Devon A Chan was. It's in line with Cam Akers, 1948 01:33:49,000 --> 01:33:52,280 Royce Freeman, JK Dobbins, Zach Chardonnay. 1949 01:33:52,280 --> 01:33:55,520 So like he's he's like it's not saying the production is crazy 1950 01:33:55,520 --> 01:33:59,320 bad, but it is It is saying that like the receiving profile. 1951 01:33:59,720 --> 01:34:02,320 He could probably be fine like as a check down guy, but like 1952 01:34:02,320 --> 01:34:04,120 would he ever be more than that? Probably not. 1953 01:34:04,120 --> 01:34:06,400 But honestly, that's a lot of the guys in the class right. 1954 01:34:07,440 --> 01:34:10,520 The other thing, like when you look at the model and what's 1955 01:34:10,520 --> 01:34:14,320 going on with him, is the the film grade for him, for Lance 1956 01:34:14,320 --> 01:34:17,480 wasn't as good. So when Lance watched his 4 1/2 1957 01:34:17,600 --> 01:34:22,040 minutes of film for Caleb Johnson Davis, he found him to 1958 01:34:22,040 --> 01:34:23,920 not be quiet like as good as you. 1959 01:34:23,960 --> 01:34:27,240 He gave him a film grade of 77, which is still not terrible, but 1960 01:34:27,240 --> 01:34:29,840 it's not in the range of what you would normally expect. 1961 01:34:30,280 --> 01:34:32,760 For players that are going to go in his range of the draft, 1962 01:34:32,760 --> 01:34:36,800 typically they're 80s and so that 77, why it may not seem a 1963 01:34:36,800 --> 01:34:39,280 lot is pulling him down. Now, having said all of that, he 1964 01:34:39,280 --> 01:34:42,960 still Grays out. He grades out as a 72 in the 1965 01:34:42,960 --> 01:34:45,120 rookie supermodel. And so like the thing again that 1966 01:34:45,120 --> 01:34:47,720 I talked about earlier, like the bigger thing on these players is 1967 01:34:47,720 --> 01:34:50,160 finding groups of players and like looking at their hit rates. 1968 01:34:50,160 --> 01:34:52,240 So he's in the same group for me. 1969 01:34:52,360 --> 01:34:54,360 He's tier 3 running back, 2 prospects. 1970 01:34:54,360 --> 01:34:56,320 Quin Shawn Judkins is in this group. 1971 01:34:56,320 --> 01:34:59,560 Caleb Johnson, you know, is in this group and it's really just 1972 01:34:59,560 --> 01:35:01,800 those two in the tier. But if you look at his comps, 1973 01:35:02,560 --> 01:35:05,760 89% of them, 89% of them went on to have a running back three 1974 01:35:05,760 --> 01:35:09,600 finish in their first three years, 56% were top 24 running 1975 01:35:09,600 --> 01:35:12,640 backs and 33% of them still got to top 12. 1976 01:35:12,640 --> 01:35:15,640 So while it doesn't like him quite as much as some of the 1977 01:35:15,640 --> 01:35:18,720 other guys we just talked about, it doesn't see it as being, Oh 1978 01:35:18,720 --> 01:35:20,200 my, it. I don't want people to walk away 1979 01:35:20,200 --> 01:35:22,640 thinking that the Model hate hates Caleb Johnson. 1980 01:35:23,160 --> 01:35:26,000 It is saying that his draft capital is pushing him up. 1981 01:35:26,000 --> 01:35:28,960 And then he's like, if the Model without draft capital were 1982 01:35:28,960 --> 01:35:31,920 assigning him where he should go in the draft, it would say that 1983 01:35:31,920 --> 01:35:34,720 he should be an end of Round 2, early round three pick. 1984 01:35:35,520 --> 01:35:37,840 So. And and like last year, he would 1985 01:35:37,840 --> 01:35:40,160 have been what, like the running back three in the class? 1986 01:35:40,400 --> 01:35:43,520 You know, maybe he's a victim of the of the strong class. 1987 01:35:43,560 --> 01:35:47,520 Yeah, I have been wondering if he actually falls in the draft 1988 01:35:47,520 --> 01:35:50,800 to maybe third round, which would be more in line with that 1989 01:35:50,800 --> 01:35:51,320 film. Great. 1990 01:35:51,320 --> 01:35:55,160 It seems like his like as far as draft buzz, he he peeked a 1991 01:35:55,160 --> 01:35:57,720 little earlier and it's it's like cooled off some. 1992 01:35:57,720 --> 01:36:05,680 But can I ask you about Dylan Sampson, who's to me like I just 1993 01:36:05,680 --> 01:36:09,320 like not that excited about Sampson, but the draft capital 1994 01:36:09,320 --> 01:36:12,960 and kind of like like a floor of like I think the NFL likes him 1995 01:36:12,960 --> 01:36:16,840 enough to where I'm not like terrified about what post draft 1996 01:36:16,840 --> 01:36:19,640 life looks like with the Dylan Sampson position. 1997 01:36:20,480 --> 01:36:26,520 There's lots of guys who I'm more intrigued by after him that 1998 01:36:27,480 --> 01:36:30,320 you know, I am worried about what the floor looks like. 1999 01:36:30,320 --> 01:36:35,280 But like Giddens, Harvey, Neil, those guys I Tooting for sure. 2000 01:36:35,280 --> 01:36:39,200 Like those guys, if they are third rounders, I want them over 2001 01:36:39,200 --> 01:36:42,080 Sampson. But even assuming Sampson's also 2002 01:36:42,080 --> 01:36:44,000 a third rounder. But I'm just like more worried 2003 01:36:44,000 --> 01:36:46,680 about the floor. Thoughts. 2004 01:36:46,680 --> 01:36:49,360 I guess I'm now getting back to asking you to adjust draft 2005 01:36:49,360 --> 01:36:53,760 capital for guys like Tanes. And Harvey, But yeah, so Dylan 2006 01:36:53,760 --> 01:36:58,600 Sampson, like production not good a 67, right? 2007 01:36:58,600 --> 01:37:01,520 And so his career, his career adjusted yards per team attempt 2008 01:37:01,840 --> 01:37:06,040 1.3 is in the 38th percentile. Not good, right? 2009 01:37:06,040 --> 01:37:08,600 If you look at him, you know, as a receiver, his best target 2010 01:37:08,600 --> 01:37:12,480 share was 7 percent, 7%, his best ripto, which is the thing 2011 01:37:12,480 --> 01:37:16,480 the model uses 23rd percentile. So really bad production 2012 01:37:16,480 --> 01:37:18,320 profile. Did play obviously like with 2013 01:37:18,320 --> 01:37:20,760 Jalen Wright and you know, you got some things going on there. 2014 01:37:21,040 --> 01:37:22,720 The Model gives him a little bit of credit for that. 2015 01:37:22,720 --> 01:37:25,240 What's carrying Dylan Sampson and the model? 2016 01:37:25,880 --> 01:37:29,120 He has an 85 film rating. It's really good. 2017 01:37:30,000 --> 01:37:32,960 So when you look at where he's going to go in the draft, you 2018 01:37:32,960 --> 01:37:35,520 look at that film rating. So essentially what the model is 2019 01:37:35,520 --> 01:37:40,080 saying about Dylan Sampson is the model sees things about him 2020 01:37:40,080 --> 01:37:42,920 and Lance sees things about him in his film that haven't 2021 01:37:42,920 --> 01:37:45,760 necessarily played out yet at the college level. 2022 01:37:46,040 --> 01:37:49,880 But there's this untapped upside that could now like take place 2023 01:37:50,280 --> 01:37:54,200 in the NFL game. And so those kind of players 2024 01:37:54,200 --> 01:37:57,400 like they're kind of tricky like to to really think about how 2025 01:37:57,400 --> 01:37:59,880 like you're going to comp them and how you're going to, you 2026 01:37:59,880 --> 01:38:02,400 know, work through like your your thoughts around them. 2027 01:38:03,680 --> 01:38:05,440 But let me see if I can find it real quick. 2028 01:38:05,520 --> 01:38:06,840 Oops. I just saw Devin Nil and he's 2029 01:38:06,840 --> 01:38:12,160 way down the list. Davis Sam, I think I wrote this 2030 01:38:12,160 --> 01:38:13,160 up. I'm looking for it. 2031 01:38:13,600 --> 01:38:16,960 Time to learn Just bombs, buddy. Yeah, man, I know, I know. 2032 01:38:18,840 --> 01:38:20,000 Yeah. So Lance talked about, you know, 2033 01:38:20,000 --> 01:38:22,880 his fill for time, spacing, blocking, like that's his 2034 01:38:22,880 --> 01:38:25,520 calling card. He talks about his short area, 2035 01:38:25,720 --> 01:38:28,560 short yardage chops despite like not big size, you know, he 2036 01:38:28,560 --> 01:38:30,560 comped him to Brian Westbrook, like. 2037 01:38:30,600 --> 01:38:33,400 And Lance is not one of these guys that will just throw out 2038 01:38:34,000 --> 01:38:36,120 like the comp that we'll get someone to come visit. 2039 01:38:36,160 --> 01:38:40,280 Like he actually, he's kind of stingy with giving a player a 2040 01:38:40,280 --> 01:38:42,040 good comp. Like you'll go read about a guy, 2041 01:38:42,040 --> 01:38:44,600 I'll read sometimes Lance's profile on a guy and I'm like, 2042 01:38:44,600 --> 01:38:47,400 this dude's freaking awesome. And then I'll read the comp and 2043 01:38:47,400 --> 01:38:51,720 it's like some crappy dude and I'm like, oh, like, so he's 2044 01:38:51,720 --> 01:38:55,360 pretty stingy, you know, with that stuff, man. 2045 01:38:55,360 --> 01:38:58,080 I can't find this thing. I wrote this up somewhere else, 2046 01:38:58,080 --> 01:39:01,440 but it was essentially looking for players that had this kind 2047 01:39:01,440 --> 01:39:04,680 of drastic delta between their production score and their film 2048 01:39:04,680 --> 01:39:07,640 score, like in the history of the supermodel and I, I put 2049 01:39:07,640 --> 01:39:11,680 together a list of examples, but sorry, bad, bad, bad job by me 2050 01:39:11,680 --> 01:39:13,880 on the show here. But the list was OK. 2051 01:39:13,880 --> 01:39:16,360 Like there were guys that were hits it, but it was obviously 2052 01:39:16,400 --> 01:39:18,840 we're we're getting later, you know, in the draft here. 2053 01:39:18,840 --> 01:39:22,600 So like if you look at Dylan Sampson hit rates for a top 36 2054 01:39:22,600 --> 01:39:27,280 finish based on his comps on the model, 53% of the time, 40% of 2055 01:39:27,280 --> 01:39:31,720 them went on to be running back twos, 20% top, 1213% were top 6 2056 01:39:31,720 --> 01:39:33,200 performers in their first three years. 2057 01:39:33,480 --> 01:39:36,480 His comps were DeAndre Swift, Devante Williams, Darius Geiss 2058 01:39:36,760 --> 01:39:39,720 and then Alvin Kamara. Nice. 2059 01:39:40,080 --> 01:39:41,040 So. Dang. 2060 01:39:42,600 --> 01:39:44,960 Oh, so those are actually the guys I know. 2061 01:39:44,960 --> 01:39:48,280 I had this here, so I wrote it. Sansa is an intriguing prospect 2062 01:39:48,280 --> 01:39:50,880 because it's difficult to find players with a film with a 2063 01:39:50,880 --> 01:39:53,800 strong film rating like this combined with such a lackluster 2064 01:39:53,800 --> 01:39:56,560 production rating. And so I listed the players 2065 01:39:56,560 --> 01:39:59,280 where it was at least 19 points apart between those two 2066 01:39:59,280 --> 01:40:01,040 components, and that was the list. 2067 01:40:02,480 --> 01:40:05,520 So these guys made it despite not having production, but they 2068 01:40:05,680 --> 01:40:11,200 he like hit huge in film. He's someone I probably wouldn't 2069 01:40:11,200 --> 01:40:13,280 have been as into a couple years ago, but I'm just like, he's 2070 01:40:13,280 --> 01:40:15,880 going to get drafted. Like he's and by drafted, I mean 2071 01:40:15,960 --> 01:40:18,960 I think he goes day two. I would be really surprised if 2072 01:40:18,960 --> 01:40:22,360 he fell past like early round 4. So he's in that range where it's 2073 01:40:22,360 --> 01:40:25,680 like he, you know, he he shows up this summer, plays well, He's 2074 01:40:25,680 --> 01:40:27,920 going to earn a role over the course of the season. 2075 01:40:27,920 --> 01:40:32,240 And there's guys I like where I'm like, I don't know, even 2076 01:40:32,240 --> 01:40:34,080 Tooting. I'm not and I'm not that. 2077 01:40:34,120 --> 01:40:36,000 List I gave you. Around 4:00 pick. 2078 01:40:36,760 --> 01:40:39,520 And even that list of comps I gave you, like the caveat is all 2079 01:40:39,520 --> 01:40:42,360 those guys had higher production ratings than Samson. 2080 01:40:42,520 --> 01:40:45,400 So while they're 19 point difference, like is the main 2081 01:40:45,400 --> 01:40:49,000 thing I was filtering on like DeAndre Swift, Javonte Williams, 2082 01:40:49,000 --> 01:40:51,320 Darius guys and Alvin Kamara were all more productive than 2083 01:40:51,320 --> 01:40:53,960 Dylan Samson in college, right? So this isn't like this perfect 2084 01:40:53,960 --> 01:40:57,080 one for one for kind of thing. But the point being is that we 2085 01:40:57,080 --> 01:41:00,400 have seen these players, right, that had that kind of delta and 2086 01:41:00,560 --> 01:41:03,680 and where it was more the grade was more reliant on film and 2087 01:41:03,680 --> 01:41:08,920 they they did come through. Well, Dwayne, if people want to 2088 01:41:08,920 --> 01:41:12,800 dig in further to the supermodel, obviously all up on 2089 01:41:12,800 --> 01:41:16,040 Fantasy Life, you guys got to see a peel back on the curtain 2090 01:41:16,040 --> 01:41:17,680 there. Some of those features are 2091 01:41:17,680 --> 01:41:21,120 paidwall, A paywall that you can get access to with a Fantasy 2092 01:41:21,120 --> 01:41:24,360 Life Premium subscription. But also the full set of 2093 01:41:24,360 --> 01:41:27,800 articles from Dwayne kind of breaking down these players is 2094 01:41:27,800 --> 01:41:30,520 also up on the site. You can search for that or go to 2095 01:41:30,520 --> 01:41:33,200 Dwayne's author page to find those. 2096 01:41:33,200 --> 01:41:36,040 But anything else that people should keep an eye out for 2097 01:41:36,040 --> 01:41:37,160 Dwayne here in the coming years? Yeah. 2098 01:41:37,600 --> 01:41:38,720 Yeah, they can check out the articles. 2099 01:41:38,720 --> 01:41:42,080 They're all free. We also did full, full shows me 2100 01:41:42,080 --> 01:41:44,880 and Ian Harditz and did some with Thor where we covered each 2101 01:41:44,880 --> 01:41:46,720 group like and we walked through everything. 2102 01:41:46,720 --> 01:41:48,680 So some players maybe we didn't cover today. 2103 01:41:49,120 --> 01:41:51,160 But I would say for the draft right now we're switching 2104 01:41:51,160 --> 01:41:52,640 towards like we're about to be in the draft. 2105 01:41:52,640 --> 01:41:56,320 So what's going to happen is as the drafts unfolding, I'll be 2106 01:41:56,960 --> 01:41:59,600 basically like, you know, the ship chasing bitch and I'll be 2107 01:41:59,600 --> 01:42:02,680 in the background like updating like these people's actual draft 2108 01:42:02,680 --> 01:42:06,640 capital so that it'll update on the site and so that people will 2109 01:42:06,640 --> 01:42:09,000 have that live information. The other thing that we'll be 2110 01:42:09,000 --> 01:42:11,560 hitting really quickly, as soon as the draft is done, I'll be 2111 01:42:11,560 --> 01:42:15,680 writing up my rookie ranks on Sunday, that'll be published on 2112 01:42:15,680 --> 01:42:17,120 Monday. And obviously the supermodel 2113 01:42:17,120 --> 01:42:19,480 will be a huge part of that. So all the changes in the 2114 01:42:19,480 --> 01:42:21,720 supermodel based on draft capital and stuff like that, if 2115 01:42:21,720 --> 01:42:24,440 you're waiting for like written word and that article will not 2116 01:42:24,440 --> 01:42:27,240 be paywalled, it'll be free. So those things will be coming. 2117 01:42:28,360 --> 01:42:34,000 Awesome looking forward to that make sure you guys check out the 2118 01:42:34,000 --> 01:42:37,320 Thor 500 as well. You know we got to about 14 2119 01:42:37,360 --> 01:42:39,400 players today. So if you're looking for, you 2120 01:42:39,480 --> 01:42:42,520 know, 486 more, you're. Good you guys are looking for 2121 01:42:42,520 --> 01:42:44,120 something to help you do content like. 2122 01:42:44,520 --> 01:42:46,240 Thor can help you. Go for a long time. 2123 01:42:47,600 --> 01:42:50,920 Yeah, go find out how how generous Thor is with his player 2124 01:42:50,920 --> 01:42:55,640 comps compared to Xerline there. Pat, what do you got going on, 2125 01:42:55,640 --> 01:42:59,200 on Leg Up? I had the first part of my 2126 01:42:59,240 --> 01:43:01,880 rookie wide receiver stuff out earlier this week. 2127 01:43:01,880 --> 01:43:04,280 I'm going to have the rest of the rookie wide receivers out at 2128 01:43:04,280 --> 01:43:08,040 the end of the week. And then yeah, got best ball 2129 01:43:08,040 --> 01:43:09,720 dynasty rankings, all that good stuff. 2130 01:43:09,720 --> 01:43:12,840 We'll be updating very quickly after the draft as well. 2131 01:43:12,840 --> 01:43:16,920 I'll I'll be I'll be plugging in draft position as as we go as 2132 01:43:16,920 --> 01:43:19,720 well. And so, yeah, check it all out 2133 01:43:19,720 --> 01:43:22,120 legendaryepisode.com. Oh, I'm going to do a think a 2134 01:43:22,160 --> 01:43:25,120 pod tomorrow with Ron as well. So look for that. 2135 01:43:26,640 --> 01:43:29,280 Very good Davis, what about you other than checking out Josh 2136 01:43:29,320 --> 01:43:35,440 Bombs on YouTube? The road to 250,000, all 150. 2137 01:43:35,440 --> 01:43:39,400 It's done tomorrow, going to go live at 9. 2138 01:43:39,920 --> 01:43:46,200 I'll do one big board by myself. Corrine's going to join me at 10 2139 01:43:46,200 --> 01:43:48,120 Central, which is 8:00 AM his time. 2140 01:43:48,600 --> 01:43:51,560 We're going to do the last two. Hopefully he's. 2141 01:43:51,560 --> 01:43:53,520 Going to join you at 10 O3 Central. 2142 01:43:53,520 --> 01:43:56,120 He's going to join me. He's going to join me at ten O 2143 01:43:56,120 --> 01:43:56,680 3. But yeah, I've. 2144 01:43:56,800 --> 01:43:58,400 I'll let you make the first round pick and then I'll. 2145 01:43:59,000 --> 01:44:02,480 Yeah, I will. I will have streamed 153 because 2146 01:44:02,480 --> 01:44:06,600 three got cancelled. So you know above, above and 2147 01:44:06,600 --> 01:44:09,320 beyond Peter. That's very impressive, I have 2148 01:44:09,360 --> 01:44:10,120 to say. That's. 2149 01:44:10,480 --> 01:44:11,880 Yeah, I ran. Really, Peter? 2150 01:44:11,880 --> 01:44:15,320 I didn't have a student cancelled draft Wow when I 2151 01:44:15,440 --> 01:44:18,240 streamed them all. Is this a new record for getting 2152 01:44:18,240 --> 01:44:20,840 150 drafts done in a period of time though? 2153 01:44:21,320 --> 01:44:23,440 Are you in world records at this point? 2154 01:44:23,520 --> 01:44:26,360 Oh it it would have to because mine's banned the entire I. 2155 01:44:26,360 --> 01:44:28,400 Think you need to submit this. Yeah, I did it. 2156 01:44:28,400 --> 01:44:32,960 I did it in like 3 months. Honestly, it was a bad idea. 2157 01:44:33,040 --> 01:44:36,840 I've gained about about 300 YouTube subscribers the entire 2158 01:44:36,840 --> 01:44:38,760 time. It was a massive waste of time. 2159 01:44:40,160 --> 01:44:42,600 I think we. Learned a lesson in every 2160 01:44:42,600 --> 01:44:45,720 streamer who has has accomplished the 1:50 that not 2161 01:44:45,720 --> 01:44:48,600 one of us has said it was a good idea when we were done with it. 2162 01:44:48,600 --> 01:44:51,520 Has anyone noticed that? And then you guys do it again. 2163 01:44:52,160 --> 01:44:55,440 Well, it will be a good idea to be streaming every day during 2164 01:44:55,440 --> 01:44:58,840 peak drafting season, but the and. 2165 01:44:59,080 --> 01:45:01,080 That's not March, to be clear, is that? 2166 01:45:01,080 --> 01:45:04,320 It's not March the the much better thing for me to have done 2167 01:45:04,320 --> 01:45:08,200 would have been to go really hard on dynasty stuff would have 2168 01:45:08,200 --> 01:45:11,400 been it would have been a really good idea to like make videos 2169 01:45:11,400 --> 01:45:16,040 and like like learn some editing type stuff. 2170 01:45:16,040 --> 01:45:17,600 Didn't do any of that to be the promo. 2171 01:45:17,600 --> 01:45:21,000 Not like you lay down on the psychologist's couch. 2172 01:45:21,360 --> 01:45:25,160 Here. But what if I win Peter? 2173 01:45:25,480 --> 01:45:29,080 But what if I win? Yes, then that will that will be 2174 01:45:29,160 --> 01:45:30,960 that will be a banger. That's the white whale. 2175 01:45:30,960 --> 01:45:33,200 The winning lineup streamed for sure. 2176 01:45:34,280 --> 01:45:38,880 So for ship chasing, obviously ADP chasing on Tuesday, a week 2177 01:45:38,880 --> 01:45:42,440 from today is the NFL draft. So we won't have our normal show 2178 01:45:42,440 --> 01:45:44,320 at 3:00 PM. We will be flexing to the 2179 01:45:44,320 --> 01:45:47,680 evening slot, 8:00 PM kick off. Already starting to book some 2180 01:45:47,680 --> 01:45:49,720 guests. I can tell you some of them now. 2181 01:45:49,800 --> 01:45:52,200 We got David Kitchen joining for the Titans pick. 2182 01:45:52,360 --> 01:45:55,360 We got Cooter Doodle from Fantasy Life joining for the 2183 01:45:55,560 --> 01:45:58,760 Saints pick. We got Ron joining for The Jets. 2184 01:45:58,960 --> 01:46:01,480 We got show up, of course with the Bills later and then we're 2185 01:46:01,480 --> 01:46:05,440 going to be mixing in. I should be able to make it for 2186 01:46:05,440 --> 01:46:07,880 the Chiefs pick. We we have to go do this thing. 2187 01:46:07,880 --> 01:46:11,520 I should be home by 9:00, so I I should be able to be there for 2188 01:46:11,520 --> 01:46:13,000 the Chiefs pick. Beautiful. 2189 01:46:13,160 --> 01:46:15,640 Pete, I'm just saying I, I, I could do Cowboys. 2190 01:46:16,000 --> 01:46:17,720 You wanna do Cowboys? I'll do cowboy there. 2191 01:46:17,760 --> 01:46:18,720 You go all. Right. 2192 01:46:18,720 --> 01:46:21,040 Wow. Matthew Golden at 12. 2193 01:46:21,040 --> 01:46:24,800 Dwayne is committed. Yeah, I'm just gonna sit 2194 01:46:24,800 --> 01:46:27,680 somberly, you know, in my chair and not say anything. 2195 01:46:27,880 --> 01:46:28,920 Who do you want? To join well. 2196 01:46:29,680 --> 01:46:32,600 We're going to make you screen share going into the model and 2197 01:46:32,600 --> 01:46:35,120 changing the golden from 20 to 12. 2198 01:46:35,120 --> 01:46:38,000 All right. Yeah, it'll be tantalizing. 2199 01:46:39,920 --> 01:46:41,680 We'll just watch viewers drop off. 2200 01:46:41,960 --> 01:46:46,400 No, no, no, they'll increase. The only other show for me 2201 01:46:46,400 --> 01:46:49,520 Saturday night on my channel I'm doing After Dark with Sean 2202 01:46:49,520 --> 01:46:51,760 Siegel. I have not had a chance to do a 2203 01:46:51,760 --> 01:46:55,920 show with Sean for a long time and normally only drafting 2204 01:46:55,920 --> 01:46:57,840 talking ball with him. So excited to peel back the 2205 01:46:57,840 --> 01:47:01,760 curtain, learn a little bit more about Sean outside of the 2206 01:47:01,760 --> 01:47:03,880 fantasy gridiron. So if you're a YouTube member on 2207 01:47:03,880 --> 01:47:05,520 my channel, you can check that out. 2208 01:47:06,240 --> 01:47:08,920 Otherwise, we'll see you guys next time here on the channel. 2209 01:47:08,920 --> 01:47:10,960 That'll be ADP chasing on Tuesday. 2210 01:47:10,960 --> 01:47:13,320 Thanks again to Dwayne. Check out all the work over at 2211 01:47:13,320 --> 01:47:15,080 Fantasy Life. So much good stuff over there. 2212 01:47:15,080 --> 01:47:16,480 We'll see you guys next time. Peace.