One week until the NFL draft. So we got a cram here and we got
a great guest today, Fantasy Life's Dwayne McFarland.
He brings with him a supermodel prospecting and giving these
guys, you know, numerical ranks that can help us sort and order
these guys for a rookie drafts, obviously for our ongoing best
ball drafts. And we're going to talk about
the players that the model is higher on, lower on than
consensus than the market. Going to be a great conversation
with Dwayne. This is ship chasing with Pete,
Pat and Davis Pat Fryer, Helmo, Anita Hand job.
Exercise Jamar Alpha. Play Chase.
You. Can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finally at this point, you're right.
All right, Dwayne, welcome back to the SHOW.
You've been hard at work in the lab.
Are you getting excited for the NFL Draft?
Oh yeah, I mean, absolutely. I've been dumb.
I I finished all the supermodel stuff like a month ago, I
updated it with all the updated draft capital.
But it's like, yeah, now it's just like the the countdown.
So yeah, super excited. But man, like what an intro?
Like you guys just have fun all the time on your show.
It's like what? That tells me you guys are all a
ball of laughs. Dwayne, Dwayne said.
Was wondering where I was in the the stream yard hopper and I
told him we had different call times than some of the more
professional shows he's. Yeah, that's true.
That's true. I showed up about 3 minutes
before and I was like, look at me, I'm such a professional.
It's what it's. It's so true.
Anytime I ever have you, either Peter or Corrine on my stream,
I, I'm going down to the second being like all right, there are
these dudes showing up with you and Peter.
I know you always will. Karain sometimes will roll in
like 3 minutes late and I'll be like, well I'm just going to
start because I know he's going to be there.
That's what they call a $2,000,000 difference when you
win 2. Million your life will be a
minute and a half late. We do have a if, if fantasy life
like the, the, the production team has like a diva rating on
all of the personalities of fantasy life and it's based on
how late you show up to meetings, like how uncooperative
you are with the script, all those sort of things.
So I'm not at the top of that ranking.
I honestly, I don't know where I am for sure because they don't
share it with us, but they do talk to us about it.
And if we do something that it's like, oh, moving up in the Diva
rankings. Well, you know, you know how
they back tested the model, so you kind of know how the way to
put your finger on the. Scale to make sure how are you
not trying to like figure out like if I I would want to like
create my own diva rankings and then try to see how close they
are. They actually you got to predict
this you. Know, I think sometimes I'm
scared of the truth. What if it's me?
What if I don't want to know that, you know, I mean, you
know, So it depends. I will say, you know, sorry,
he's not here to defend himself. But right now it's Thor.
Thor is at the top of the Diva rankings.
We really don't know who's second or third, but we know
that Thor's at the top. Now correct me if I'm wrong, but
I believe that's just because Thor keeps crazy hours.
Oh yeah, Thor. He's like up at like 3.
Like it's very, I've tried to have Thor on shows a couple
times over the last year and sometimes it works, sometimes it
doesn't. But Thor and I basically we're
like 2 ships passing in the night.
You know, I wake up at 5:00 AM, he's going to sleep at at 5:00
AM. Like we we actually just don't
cohabitate the earthly at the same time, basically, yeah.
A lot of times they say in Hollywood, right, like working
with some of the mad geniuses, you know, can actually, you
know, they're erratic, you know, but that's the price we pay for
someone who's willing to rank 500 prospects, which is what
just came out today with the Thor 500.
So it requires some diva to be able to accomplish that I think.
Yeah, like, yeah, it's like being a wide receiver, like you
got to have a little bit of it in your bones or it's not going
to work out for you. Yeah, and I'm not kidding about
that. If you guys didn't see Thor
dropped his his top 500 today, I had to look it up.
I was like 257 players get drafted in the NFL draft and
this guy came out with a big board with 500 players.
So if you were a UDFA freak, the fun part in it is he has a
player comp for every single one of those 500 players.
Well, so. And I think he really tries to
have them not repeat like he tries to not use the same comp
again. If I had a list of 500 players
by the time I got to the end, like I probably would have used
Drake London like 74 times. Yeah, Dwayne, do you want to be
the 900th person to compare Ted Macmillan to Drake London or do
you have a fresher comp? I have to say that the model did
compare Drake London to Tetmillan out of the gate, but I
do want to note that it was one of the first people to throw
that comp out there. But yeah, I mean, you, you can
go a lot of different ways with Drake London.
What's interesting about these models is whenever I look at
them, the thing I try to think about the most like is at first
I look at like, what are the historical hit rates based on
the model, right? If we know that it's got like
this predictive nature to it and based on like how that those
numbers look, then I try to kind of select my comps to paint like
this realistic range of outcomes.
But some people will only pick good receivers, right?
So if you look at Drake London, I did.
I mean, I mean, I did have Drake London in there with Ted
McMillan, but it also had Romo Dunze.
He was one spot off in the supermodel rating from Romo
Dunze. And then the other one was
Nikhil Harry, right? Sometimes these guys bust.
And that was his closest profile for a player that was, you know,
similar to him, you know, in the model that also wasn't good.
But but I can't say for TET, 100% of his comps at least
became a wide receiver 3 within the first three years.
So that automatically should probably try to knockout and
kill Harry. But I at least wanted to give
like, hey, man, everything just goes completely wrong here.
Like this would be the guy that he would be the closest to.
I honestly think that's one of the really valuable things about
doing model and statistical driven comps is that you get
guys where you're like, Oh no, like trailing Burks came up for
me with with Ted McMillan and you're like, yeah, they were
both, you know, very productive 3 year guy.
Like there's thing, there's reasons that they're they're
kind of similar. Once you once you hear the word
power slot, you have to enjoy Trailon Burks.
Power. Power slot has come up with tet
Juju also came up for me, which is a a really interesting one.
That's another reason I like him is sometimes like is Juju a good
Juju is like honestly like a very bullish comp, but also
we're we're so like conditioned to thinking about.
Juju Juju would have been awesome.
Juju. Juju would have been awesome if
he never hurt his knee. Juju.
Juju's like the the wide receiver version of Deshaun
Watson without the off the field stuff.
Like people that are just now coming around, they're like, oh,
Juju terrible. Yeah.
Like you're like, dude, Deshaun
Watson used to score like 23 fancy points a game, guys.
I promise. Like at one point his career,
like you wanted him. It's just what's that happening?
It's like a first round dynasty. Pick after one of those.
Years. Yeah, after his breakout, he.
Was on the cover of Madden. Dude, Juju just missed you, go
look it up. I I believe you.
I believe Madden 2017, he was like the guy who was in the
commercials like. We put up with like three
seasons of non production and still drafted him in the sixth
round like that we had so. Because we were still like, he's
23. Like, how's he running?
That was still 23 at that point, right?
Now, Dwayne, can I sell you on a new way to generate comps?
It's. Particularly.
Oh yeah, man, absolutely. I'm down for fun things.
So this is this is actually Karine and I have been doing
this with. Prospects for like the last.
Couple weeks you have you have you have the Charmander, the
Char Million and the Charizard version of the prospects.
The Charizard obviously being that would be Drake London's
probably not a Charizard, right? The the Charizard would be like.
He might be a Vincent. Jackson Vincent Jackson you know
if and and Tet and then the Charmander would be trailing
Bergs. It works really good for people
who are watching best ball fantasy football draft in March.
Yeah, they're like, they're like, really I.
I feel like if I tried that on the fly today, like might get
more viewers for you guys, but you know, I don't know enough
about I'll I'll be honest, I don't know enough about Pokémon,
but I could get. I was going to say here.
Probably like he would. He would be like your guy.
He would be the dude. Yeah, because we will sometimes
use different Pokémon depending on the type of prospect.
That gives you a little window into the architect.
It's very important. Yeah, you see me glaze over at
that point. It's not because I'm
disinterested. I just don't understand.
Like I won't know what's happening.
So I, you know, I do think one of the interesting things with
the, with the model is how much draft capitals obviously
impacting it. I know the other day I was
writing about Kyle Williams cuz he was steaming up the draft
board and I asked you like, if he gets early day 2, like the
rumor was like, how much does that change?
And I think it bumped him from a 67 to a 70.
But what are the typical? Like how much can a player swing
based on on draft capital alone? It can be quite a bit.
I mean, it's the number one driver in the model.
Obviously, like it's all this is all based off of testing.
Like I've tested everything under the sun like that I can
get my hands on to future production.
And then once I've done that and I find the strongest things,
then I like cross test all those things to one another to see
like where you just have potential overlap and you're
like double counting things and then you start eliminating.
So honestly, like the model, even though I study new things
every year, Pete, it gets, it's actually gotten simpler.
So a great way to think about draft capital is like draft
Capital plus production rating plus film rating.
Actually like is really additive.
Like you go from making your draft, what the draft capital
does by itself to being much better.
So draft capital is like really your starting point and then
you're trying to find the components that are really
strong that also make the model stronger.
But it's unique because like for tight ends, having athleticism
in there really helps the model. Having the speed score for
running backs, it helps having the speed score in there.
But then when you do it for wide receiver, it actually makes the
model worse, which tells us NFL teams are already accounting for
the 40 time, actually probably too much right in the way that
they value these wide receivers. So ultimately what it comes down
to is draft capital is the starting point.
And when I say draft capital, I don't mean draft pick like.
So when you think of the word like draft pick, you would just
be talking pick one, pick two, pick three, pick four, pick
five. And what I've done is I've gone
and I've used Chase Stewart's the chart that he created,
essentially it's the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, but he
updated it and made it for like, you know, not the Stone Age,
like for like today's NFL. And sorry, Jimmy, I love Jimmy
Johnson, but you know, he he updated it.
And So what happens is early in the draft, basically between
rounds one and two, you guys know this like the value of a
draft picks, not linear. Like when you move from pick one
to two to three to four, you don't get this equal drop off
right? And the value of the players
early in those rounds, you really get this logarithmic
curve. I mean, so it's like basically
like I it's, it's like a, you know, a Cliff that then starts
to smooth, smooth out and it gets really flat towards the end
of round two on through the rest of the draft.
So Pete, to answer your question, for a player like Kyle
Williams, he was supposed to be, he was undrafted When I wrote
the first version of the supermodel a month ago, he was
projected to go undrafted, stay well.
Then he moved into like round six and then Chris Sims came out
with his thing and that's obviously influenced the market.
And now you're hearing these team visits and the the
potential pairing with Cam Ward, all this stuff.
So now people are saying he's around to pick.
So what happens in a case like that is, yeah, he's getting
credit for moving up, but it's not as much as what some people
think. And I've had people ask me that.
They're like, man, well, you know, Kyle Williams moved from
undrafted to like now he's picked 91 in the model.
And I and I was like, well, because that's not as big of a
difference. It would have been a much bigger
difference. Like what Matthew Golden did is
a way bigger difference because he went from being a guy that
people thought would go at the end of round two, like before
the college playoffs started to being a guy that's now pick 20
or so. And round one, that's a bigger
move because of the way that the drop off and what the value,
what the value of a draft pick is.
It's much higher in the early 2 rounds.
So it matters for all of them, but it's relative right to where
you're going in the draft. So if you go 5 picks earlier in
round five, it's probably not going to change your score
early. All in the model.
If you move 5 picks in round one, it will make it will make
it a significant difference in the model.
You'll probably move a point or two.
Jaden Higgins would be another guy, right?
That's that's made a big, big rise.
Yeah, he's still in Round 2. Yeah, he, yeah, he's moved up
and his move has been in. I think actually when I first
did this, he might have been close to the end of Round 2 and
now he's like pick 50. I'm trying to remember.
Yeah, yeah, it's you guys have it up.
It's pick 50 now. So yeah, he's moved up like I
think 16 spots or 15 spots since I first did this.
So yeah, end of round two starts to flatten there, Pat, But yeah,
that's worth more then probably. I don't have to double check it,
but it's probably honestly the equivalent of Kyle Williams
going from undrafted to being a round three guy.
What about Luther Burden's fall? How?
How big? How much has he dropped?
He's dropped like 2 points in the model since it started
because he he was, he was looked at as being when I first wrote
it, like he had already moved down to the bottom of Round 1.
So it wasn't like that first. Some of the first mock drafts we
saw were Luther Burden was like in the middle of round one.
So the first data point I had captured for Burden was like
pick 25 and now he's looking at early second round.
So it is it's, it's hurting him, but not as much as it would have
had I had I started writing the model, you know, like 2 weeks
before. It would have hurt him even more
versus his original score. Can you and can you talk to me
about Kyle Williams's production?
I just like, I've only gotten it from the film people.
I just have not had a super serious data person be like.
And This is why Kyle Williams is gonna be a good dynasty pick for
your fantasy teams. Yeah.
So the cool thing is, I mean, what this is doing is it's
looking across all those components.
But to tell you like how it works Davis for Kyle Williams
right now, I mean, if you look at him like he's getting credit
obviously for his draft capital in the model, but his production
rating is an 80 and everything with the supermodel is on a
scale of 50 to 100. OK, so 75 is like basically the
middle point. Anything above that you're
starting to get into the the better, you know, ranges of it.
Now there's two things that go into production rating and first
thing is adjusted career receiving yards per team pass
attempt. And when I say adjusted, that
word means a lot of things. One I adjust for the schedule.
So I go back and I look at their, I look at their strength
of schedule data from College Football Reference.
I use that. And then also their program
quality goes into this like how good of a team did they play on?
So I do that by using the football power index from ESPN.
I really love using that cuz all the way up till the end of the
year, right? They're doing simulations with
that. It's not just who finished first
and second. They're running like 20,000
simulations on how everything can finish, you know, based on
all the different components. So power index then determines
like how good of a team you played on.
And so that starts to tell us, OK, great, how how good were
probably the players around you. The next layer of that it looks
at all your team mates and like how good they're receiving yards
per team pass attempt were and if they if they are over certain
thresholds, the model actually starts to adjust.
Like this is made for Ohio State essentially and from LSU for
these programs. For route run cuz you're yeah,
it gets it gets tricky, yeah. So it looks for thresholds for
those things and then what happens is based on that, it
starts to discount what it would expect from you.
So essentially what it will do, it will say based on your
strength of schedule, the strength of teammates that you
played with, how good your your program was, and then your, your
age, your age class adjusted stuff right when you broke out.
It takes each one of those things and it looks at here's
what your expected number would have been were how much were you
over or under expected? And then those 4 components get
weighted and put together to give you this adjusted career
ripped up, which is pretty good for Kyle Williams.
It's in the 60th percentile and it's already counting against
him, Davis that he was in a 19th percentile program, program
quality. So essentially 0 competition,
bro, you're on the field all the time.
Like everything's coming to you automatically.
And then it looked at his strength of schedule was which
was in the 35th percentile going back to 2018.
And that was a 67 rating in the supermodel.
So all those things come together.
So once you look at that and like look at his career adjusted
RIPTA, that's the first component that's really good in
the 60th percentile. And then the other factor like
you want things that are complementary.
So there's going to be overlap in this because I use their
career targeted quarterback rating.
You could argue you want to use yards per route run for this.
I think you can use either one. This one showed slightly more
strength for me and I wanted to somehow capture the play making
ability. And as much as we think
touchdowns are variants, I still the model still slightly cares
about them. So he had a 106.5 career
quarterback rating, which is in the 53rd percentile.
So those two things come together and that gives you an
80 production rating. And this is what I can say about
him. Four guys expected to go on
round threes, two and three of NFL drafts.
Like going back and looking at it like that stacks up.
If you start to say that, oh, he should be a first round pick,
then it would start to be like, I don't know, like that would
kind of be like a stretch for a wide receiver that's gonna go in
round one. Obviously this is looking at it
like down to the pick level, but that like that's a good cut off
like to have in your mind. So for second and third round
picks like Kyle Williams is like on par with where you would
think you would be, even after adjusting for the fact that he
didn't play on a very good team and his competition was really
easy. Yeah.
And when I asked you about if he did go, I think we adjusted his
pick into did the 62. Yeah.
We made it 62, so end of end of Round 2 is what we said.
And you said comparable comps, it was it was Tank Dell, Josh
Downs and Deonte Johnson I want. To say deonte.
Johnson put him at a 70, he's at a 67.
It would have put him at a 70. And so here's what's cool about
the model that I really like and I think where you can pair it
with like film analysis. So The thing is a lot of people
to do their comps will be like, and I'm not saying this doesn't
matter, I will do this as a second layer to the comp if I
have enough people in the comparable bucket.
But it doesn't care that one dude is 64210 and the other guy
is 5/10. 2:05 What it's saying is it's going OK.
Guys that had similar production ratings, guys that had similar
film ratings and guys that went in a similar range of the draft.
These are their closest comps. And here are the other guys that
graded out as a 70. Van Jefferson, Pat, I believe
Van Jefferson is an all time favorite for you, Deonte Johnson
And then we have Andy Isabella. Yeah, pulled us big time.
And then we have Josh Downs sitting there as well.
And if you go up like one more point in the model, you get Tank
Dell at 71, but you also get 22 Atwell, So I mean, you kind of
got up, right. Tank Dell came up for me,
depending on the draft capital. Isabella comes up.
Deonte Johnson came up for me. Danny Gray came up for me.
And then actually I'm in. I'm in around St.
Brown. Nice.
Yeah, I didn't have I didn't have a Mon Raw or Danny Gray
come up in in the way this one works.
But I like theoretically, like just thinking about those
players. I could see it.
The the thing that's interesting to me about Williams in terms of
his production is this is this stylistically doesn't make any
sense, but they're both 5th year players in this class.
It's a little similar to Trey Harris where you have early
production at one school and they transfers to another school
and then he's really, really good in the final season.
Kyle Williams had a 38% dominated rating in in the final
season. The thing that's kind of
different about him versus Trey Harris is that actually I'm like
more confident in Kyle Williams strengths translating because
his strengths are like he's probably going to be a slot.
He gets open quickly. Like that's you know, you, you
read his reception perception stuff.
It's like he's he's really good on slants, he's really good on
curls. So I think it's sort of like,
what's the big, big time upside? I mean, I think if he was Deonte
Johnson, we'd be stoked, you know?
But more likely he's probably just like a solid slot.
Trey Harris, you're like this dude could be, I don't know who
who who came up for you with Trey Harris Cuz he has some.
Trey Harris came in as a 71, so if Kyle Williams moved up to
like to the end of round two, he would get pretty close to Trey
Harris. He had a, he had a production
rating of 81, right, which doesn't care about draft
capital. That's just looking at their
production rating. And you know, you talked about
like when they broke out. So the way the supermodel thinks
about like when players produce, it's not binary, like you broke
out or you didn't. What it does is it does give
more weight though, to what you do in year 1-2 and three in
college and you get less weight in in year 4.
So if you do really well in year 4, the model will still care
about it. But like you have to do like
really you have to do like Tyler Warren.
Well, you have to be like, Oh my God, we didn't know who you were
and now we might think you shit, you might be a superstar.
Does does 5.21 yards per outrun help?
Does, yes. Yes, that does help.
So, so with Trey Harris, like like you mentioned, like the
breakout really wasn't until the final two years and he had a
really good, you know, final year it was strong enough to get
his production rating to 81, which actually says a lot.
But also his career targeted quarterback rating, which is
like, OK, what'd you do when you did get your opportunities that
the quarterback actually targeted you?
What did you do with it? He comes in in the 71st
percentile, which is ahead of where Kyle Williams is, but his
adjusted crew Repta is 53rd percentile, which is actually
lower than Kyle Williams. So they both kind of have their
own strength. So he doesn't get open.
At least he's the same catch. Yeah.
Yeah, yeah. But what I do like about Trey
Harris, like and, and these things are more like context
that I used to write about the players and kind of that next
level of like research you're doing as you're thinking about
them. And it also helps you like think
about comps, but you know, he was really good against man end
zone. So a 37% career targets per
route run against man. The average college prospects
since 2018 is 25%. So way above that 26% for his
career versus zone. The average for a career for a
college prospects 23%. And then if you just look at
like how he attacked the field, they were pretty similar in that
like, you know, if you look at the behind the line of scrimmage
targets like Kyle William wasn't he wasn't overly reliant. 16%
Trey Harris, 9% short, which is 0 to 9 yards down the field. 42%
for Trey Harris, 37% for Kyle Williams.
So like they're pretty similar. Neither one of them were like
crazy deep threats, but they were in line with the 22%
average we've seen from prospects because Trey Harris is
at 22. So Kyle Williams is at So like
what that tells me is both of them actually have shown they
can beat man in zone coverage, Trey Harris to a greater degree.
And then they they actually did attack all four levels of the
field. Now, how that translates to the
NFL, we don't always know, but that's where the film rating
comes in. And for Trey Harris, it came in
at an 80. And again and again, this is
this is relying on Lance Zierlein and his prospect grades
for wide receivers 100%. And Kyle Williams is at 77.
And I had some good conversations with Lance.
He was super cool about it. Like I reached out to him,
talked about what I was doing, the project.
He gave me a lot of feedback about how he how he creates his
scores, like what are the things he's looking for?
And one really interesting thing that I think he has maybe
mastered that maybe some others haven't, or they at least
haven't given us away like a number to help us use it.
I'm sure other film evaluators have done it right, but have
they done it in a way that we could measure it and use it for
a model? Is he has been trained by
multiple NFL teams and a big component of it is not just
looking for a film to grade what they can do today, but looking
for traits on film that mean in the future they could unlock
other things. I think that is so huge because
I think, for example, Luther Burden, what do we get all
twisted around? We're all like, OK, well, can he
just do short stuff? Or was that because they didn't,
that's just the offense they wanted to run and make it easy
to get in the ball. And Lance's evaluation of Luther
Burden, if you go read it, he he says that he actually thinks
Luther Burden has much more to offer and an NFL team is going
to unlock a whole new level to him.
So that gets baked in to that film grade, right, that he's
giving. And so the model likes Luther
Burden actually a lot because the production's obviously
there. But the caveat is, well, is he
just going to be a gadget player or not?
And Lance doesn't think he's going to.
Now the weakness of the model is I'm completely leaning on Lance
in that area, and as good as he's been, like, it could be
wrong. So my goal in the future is to
try to get other people I could use, but I don't want to just
take like people's paywalled stuff and be like, hey, I'm
putting in my model and I'm going to like put it behind a
paywall. Burden is just obviously not
just a gadget guy. He just especially because you
got to look at how varied the production was his sophomore
season at the depths he did it at.
And then look at what happened. I mean, who knows what happened
with Missouri football last year.
But like, I want Missouri I think was live to go to the
College Football Playoff in 2023.
Missouri football, right? And he was smashing for them at
20. He was.
And then, you know, everything went off the rails last year
but. I think I.
Think the cool thing with the model like it, it's giving him
big credit for the sophomore, but it's not being binary.
It's also it's docking him a little bit for the fact that as
a junior, because that is a year that matters a lot in the model
that he didn't do as well. But it's blending.
It's not saying, oh, you got to pick one or the other like his,
his adjusted career RIPTA came in at the 64th percentile,
right. So it's higher than both the
other prospects we just talked about.
But the thing with Burden for me too, Davis is like people will
say, well, he's just a gadget player.
And Scott Barrett had some really good points.
I did a show last week with Rich Rebar, Scott Barrett and JJ
Zachary and we all talked about wide receivers in our models and
like nerd it out for like 90 minutes.
It's over on sharp angles. If you guys want to check it
out. It is.
Rich did a great job pulling us all together.
We had fun. But you know, Scott talked about
the behind the line of scrimmage stuff, you know, and the fact
that the other stuff was on like fades from these wide hashes,
which won't work at the NFL level.
And so it's like I could see some of those things, but
sometimes I wonder, are we getting too granular into
something that's really not predictive?
Like it could just be total randomness, right?
And it could matter. It might not matter.
But the thing I look at is the dude had a 32% targets per route
run against man. Guess what happens when you get
man coverage? That's immediately jumping your
route when it's just a gadget play, they can't throw it to
you. So you do have to do some other
things to get these targets against man.
That's the 49ers offense. Like Brock Purdy drops back.
Oh, zone coverage. I'm throwing it underneath the
Debo Samuel and he's going to run a freaking screen.
Oh, he's it's man coverage. They're they're biting down on
it. Oh, Brandon Iuke's running a
backside slant route that's there to beat man coverage.
So like as I dug into it, like even just from a production
standpoint, I wasn't super worried about Burden.
Another guy I really lean into is Matt Waldman because I think
Matt like not afraid to make stands on players.
He's got a process that he shares.
Like here's how I grade everyone.
He gives you all the details, more details than most people
want. But what I love about it is like
he follows the process and he iterates on it and he has to
Luther Burden as his wide receiver one, and he's not
worried either about his ability to progress to the next level.
So I think there's plenty of film people out here saying room
to grow for Luther Burden. And so I feel good about that.
Yeah, Burden. I ended up having I was going to
have a wide receiver five with Hunter as a wide receiver.
I ended up having a wide receiver 4I went.
I ended up going Hunter Tet Ibuka Burden Golden and it's
just the ceiling that really scares me as from a fade
position, you know, on burden where you're like, dude, if you
just zoom out and look at like the most predictive stuff, like
he looks great when you look under the hood.
I, I share some of the concerns that Scott has where it's like,
OK, so like a ton of his career targets on on deep targets were
contested and that was actually like worse in his breakout
season, his good season, that was worse than in his career
numbers, so. Like just for the record on the
data I studied, I did do a study on contested catches and it
correlated actually with better future fantasy production.
So I don't think it's because like you want them.
I think it's because the quarterback is such an A massive
part. Contested catches.
Yeah, it's they throw late. Like we see this all the time.
Receivers open, quarterback let's the ball go now receivers
covered what happens Contested catch.
So I just feel like it's a number that could be really
noisy. I do feel like you could
probably isolate down to maybe quarterbacks that you know,
don't have that issue that are like bad ass and you might
actually have a signal then. Like if if the wide receiver is
getting all these contested catches and he has a really good
quarterback that has good timing, it might be a wide
receiver thing. But you know, that's like it's
really hard like to get some of those layers in the.
Data you also have to like all of his Yak is coming behind the
line of scrimmage 56% of his career Yak was behind the line
of scrimmage in the in 2023 season, the Goodyear 59% of his
Yak was coming behind the line of scrimmage.
So I I kind of like. That's OK though.
To me that's OK because we're adjusting for that because, you
know, yak adjustments we're making on A dot.
We know the lower your your A dot is, the better your yak
should be. So the expectation around what
you should be doing, we can normalize like at a target
level. And once you do that, then the
numbers I did Pat like burden didn't come out maybe as high as
people thought he would, but he came out like at a passable
grade. Like where it gets really
interesting is if you have a prospect with a high A dot that
also has a high yak, then you're like, whoa, like this is like a
unique combination. You don't usually, you don't
usually see so like burden didn't have that.
But I don't worry so much about the percentage of yak as long as
like after you adjust for his A dot, like you don't see
something where you're like, whoa, 30th percentile.
Like that's bad. Like and he wasn't in that
range. He was still like in the 6667
percentile somewhere in there. It just it's like you kind of
are mostly producing in two ways, deep contested catches and
behind the line of scrimmage Yak.
That scares me. That's that's a low score.
Combination. It sounds like what we got from
Jayden Reid last year where it's like you'd get these massive
ceiling games where they do some schemed up stuff for him by the
line of scrimmage and then he'd have some big plays downfield.
And then he'd also just disappear or be underutilized
from large stretches, even though the ceiling was always.
There burden burden is 1520 lbs bigger than Jayden Reid.
His, his offensive coordinator and his coach are going to be
like, you want to go break some tackles, bud?
Go for it, Jay. Jayden Reid.
You know how many times in Jayden Reid's career he's played
over 50% of the snaps in a game? It's like, it's like an
astoundingly low number. And he's only.
I looked, I just happened to look this up yesterday.
He's only played 75% or more of the Packer snaps in.
I got it. It was either 3, two or three
games. Yeah, like.
That's that's essentially like his average is like 74%.
Like they they they just do not. That's routes.
I'm talking total snaps. Total snaps.
My bad. Yeah.
So basically Jaden Reed's coaches just do not view him.
They they view him as a gadget player and my guess is that's
more because of his size. Let me give you.
That's fair. Let.
Me give you guys a few names on Luther burden and let and let
you react RIP them apart. Do whatever you want, but like
in the model the way it works. So because I know this is such a
big issue, right? This stuff with with gadget
plays. So here's some names that were
very close to Luther Burden. So Luther Burden had a 9.1
average depth of target a 32% of his 32% of his targets came
behind the line of scrimmage, 21% came deep.
So that's 20 plus yards down the field.
Calvin Ridley was a 9.8 A .29% of his targets behind the line
of scrimmage, 19% of his targets came deep.
Essentially like almost the same thing.
Brandon Iuke slightly higher on the A dot 10.6 versus 9.1.
But again, 29% of his targets in college came behind the line of
scrimmage. 22% of them were deep 20 plus yards down the field.
The way I'm looking at this is if I would love it if Burden
went at the end of round one because I feel like that would
kind of settle any questions. Not because the model so much
cares, but because the NFL does think of the I think they
actually do think of the end of Round 1 is like being like this
a marker that they care about quite a bit.
And so if I would love to see Burden go at the end of round
one, because I think if a team took him there, if you think
about it, where did Ridley and I, you go 26 and 25 and their
drafts, respectively. So like, if you went in that
range, I think you're you're going to have a team that
believes Luther Burden is more than a Leviska Chenault, right.
But if he starts to slide into like past the first few picks of
Round 2, I think we could look at that.
It's kind of like a tiebreaker signal of oh man.
Like they, they might really view him like as being a guy
that's limited and that's why they didn't want to spend that
first round draft pick on him. But I'll just say this, like all
of his comps in the model, 63% of them went on to give you a
top three wide receiver finish within the first three years.
53% of them were wide receiver twos and then 16% of them went
on to give you a top 12 finish within their first three seasons
in the model. So I think like if you're trying
to label Luther Burden right now, it's like borderline wide
receiver 2, sliver of wide receiver one upside.
But there is a little bit of like wide receiver three, you
know, wide receiver 4 danger. Like the data's telling us that.
The closest comps I gave him were IU, Debo and Chennault in
the model. Well, I'm I'm surprised DJ Moore
didn't pop. DJ Moore is the top guy for for
me and. Yeah, I've had a lot of reasons
say DJ, he was, he was close. I could have included him, but
he was like, I like another point or two off.
Yeah, he's close enough that I wouldn't argue with it.
DJ Moore is part of the reason that I'm like, you know, and
like, I had Jefferson come up, Justin Jefferson come up.
So I'm like, I don't want to the the downside is, you know, kind
of Jalen Regory, but the upside is massive.
So I've been I selfishly, I kind of hope he goes second round so
that we don't have to pay all that much for him.
Like I would love if he went like second round to the Titans
or something. So he has like opportunity,
potentially good quarterback play, but we're not that excited
about the offense. You don't have to pay full price
for the upside and best ball. I ended up liking him a little
bit more in Dynasty too, because I kind of see it as like, if I'm
going to get the mega ceiling, it might take two or three years
as he improves on certain things and develops into a more
complete receiver. Cool scheme.
Landing spot would be nice, like early if he lands with a coach
where you're like, you know, they would actually be willing
to like design if if in fact his profile really is contingent,
which I really don't think that we know.
But if it is contingent on needing the gadget looks landing
somewhere like obviously, I think we probably all agree like
had Debo not landed in San Francisco, as much as we love
him, he wouldn't be this version of Debo for sure.
He might have still been a good player, is still in the league,
getting a second, third contract, all those things, but
wouldn't have been the fantasy superstar that we got like every
other year over like a five year stretch.
Well, and you get the double whammy for the late round one,
right? You get that draft capital cut
off that you're talking about. That's super important.
But then the last five picks are Lions, Commanders, Bills,
Chiefs, Eagles, I mean. All of a sudden you're going.
Into literally the best offense. Yeah, you'd want a trade off
from another team coming up to do to make the pick.
Like ultimately would be the best a team.
I think on the Bills, like Bills, Josh Allen with burden.
He would go 43588 and four. So hard on the Bills.
He would just. He would.
Be. You know, it'd just be yeah.
And, and we'd get at least one cut, you know, one on red zone.
They're showing, you know, an animated conversation between
Luther Burdin and John. And that throws another pass to
Dalton Kincaid in the red zone, where Kincaid can't quite get
his hands on the ball. Yeah, I don't know the
announcer's names, but usually imagine the other one begging
Doug and they've got Curtis Samuel out here again, not
Luther Burden. Do you do you put any stock into
the kind of the character stuff that's come up?
Like there's and it's hasn't been anything crazy.
It's just like, oh, I quit on routes or like he stuff about
like his family and girlfriend and stuff.
And I ultimately, I didn't even mention it in my write up
because I'm like his draft capital is falling.
So he's that's probably capturing it.
But do you have any thoughts on that part?
Of it, I let draft capital handle that.
And the reason why I like is I would just be guessing, you
know, I would be just trying to get second hand information
that's already just second hand from the first hand information.
That's probably to your point already pushing him down boards.
Where I think it could be interesting is if you heard all
those things and he moved way down in mock drafts and then
suddenly one team took him at 15, then maybe you have like
this flag in your head of OK, but man, I'm not sure if this
team didn't take him, like really, would another team have
taken him in round one? Like that kind of thing?
Like last year with Jermaine Burton, apparently, like he was
off like 60% of the boards. But all it takes, right is the
one team to take him. That's obviously not a great
example because it wasn't like in the first round of the draft,
but I think like there could be scenarios where you care about
it. But assuming that like it takes
care of itself and he kind of goes where we think he's going
to go, then I'm just I'm with you.
I'm not going to worry about it because I think that's what's
part of what's putting his pushing his draft capital down.
Yeah. What about Jack Bash?
He was one, I know when you were looking at players who the model
would be maybe higher on, like agnostic to draft capital
relative to the market. He was a guy that that popped
for you. Well, yeah, he was lower.
So like, so he's completely getting carried by his film
rating. So his film rating from Lance is
it comes in an 81 in the supermodel.
But if you look at his career production rating, it's a 68.
If you look at you know, obviously his draft pick value
right now comes out of 65, you know, in the model for the
rating. But like program quality, 56
percentile. He played at some good places,
but he spent more time, you know, with TCU he had 83% on the
strength of schedule. But like he just like the big
thing is his adjusted career receiving yards per team pass
attempt. Now he played, he dealt with an
injury, think he had tightrope surgery, played on some really
loaded teams, but 23rd percentile.
So it's really the production's pulling him down and the film is
pulling him up like and that's how he meets in the middle.
But what I'll say in the model without draft capital compared
to the supermodel, he he drops down 36 spots in my overall now,
not just in ranks for this year. The way I gave you that number
is back to 2018. So it's not quite as big as what
you think it is. It'd be like a 10 point drop
like for this year, like a 10 spot drop this year.
So, and that's OK. Like I went back and looked for
profiles that were like this, that were like people saying
like, he's, you know, or I say people Lance in this case
saying, hey, film looks good. But like the production was
never there. And you do get some hits from
it. But man, it's really
inconsistent. Like, obviously we're moving
down in the draft now. Like, you prefer players that
played, you know, tough schedules on good teams with a
lot of competition and then still produce, like, in this
really big way. And they did it even when they
were young. And then, you know, they get a
good film rating like he had. You want all that?
He had more receptions than five NFL players as a true freshman.
Mostly kind of playing tight end for LSU.
Booty Palmer, Brian Thomas, junior neighbors like not not
nothing. I think for for Besh.
I I literally think the fact that he's white and kind of
bulky at LSU, they were like, you're not a wide receiver dude.
Like. We need you.
We need you to get at the trenches.
Yeah, the model is giving him some credit for that for that
year. Like he gets credit for playing
with those players and for it being so young.
The problem is he did zilch after that.
And that's so that literally all those things together.
So without that year, Davis, he'd be like a 5 per 1/5
percentile I had that year gets him to 23rd.
I have no explanation for this but mate, I mean Mason Taylor
came in and started over him the next year basically is is what
happened. So maybe Mason Taylor is is
really good. God that 2022 LSU team.
A lot of NFL players on that. Team, I will say this on Besh,
just real quick, all of the film analysts love him.
Like I listen to Ben Solak with Mina Kimes.
He loved him because I try to listen to the film analysts like
when I'm like doing yard work and stuff, I listen to the stuff
like that I'm not constantly doing to try to like help me get
better and think about different angles to things.
And so Matt Waldman also had positive words about him.
Lance Erlein gave him a film grade of 81.
Matt Harmon has talked him up. So I will say, like to a man,
the people that I like actually spend a lot of my time listening
to for film evaluations have actually spoke very positively
about him. So the feedback's pervasive in
this case. It's not like one person like.
He was, he was like the talk of the Senior Bowl as well.
Like he's, he has impressed people.
Yeah, Thor likes him. So doesn't love him, but likes
him. It is weird that his like when
you look at his profile, you know, there's like, OK, he, he's
pretty interesting as a freshman.
Then he has a 9% yardage share and a 6% yardage share to follow
that up. He's like pretty solid in his
senior year, 27 percent, 32% dominated rating, actually
decently efficient. Not amazing, but like he pulls
out of the tailspin. But do you look, I'm like, OK,
I've been training. I'm like, is he puka?
Am I going to go find like some crazy underclassmen yards per
route run. He was hurt.
No, the yards per runner like bad during this period.
So it's it is strange, like he is kind of the the classic to
me, like the the riskiest thing you can be is a guy who like was
nothing until you went back to school for your fourth year or
fifth year and then became something that year.
Like literally that that of all flags, the reddest flag that you
could. It's the reddest.
But it does seem like he wins by
getting open, so I like that. The challenge starts to be there
like like, you know, you look at the career stuff like targets
per route run versus man 21% that's that's below average for
a college prospect. Like and not even caring about
what round they go in the average college prospect's 25%
like he's below that. He's below it for zone.
His best, his career targets here obviously is low 13%, but
his best target share season is 21%.
And you know, Pat, you study this stuff like that's nothing
for a college receiver. Like we have guys that get 37
and 40%. You know, it's higher than what
you see in the NFL for some of these guys.
So it's just I, I don't know, I, I have AI don't, I can't find
anything production wise to hang my hat on.
I could call out a caveat, and I think Davis gave it.
It was the fact that what he did when he was so young on such a
good team, I would say, hey, like it's worth, it's worth
noting and the model's giving him credit for that.
But it's not enough to like, overcome all this other shit.
Are there any you mentioned kind of like getting other film
opinions even if you're not using them in the model?
Have you noticed anyone that Lance's film grade really
diverges from the rest of the film graders that are making you
question how much you want to rely on it in the model?
No, I mean, he's a little higher on burden than some people that
are more split. So that going back to that, that
was one. But then Matt Waldman also loved
burden. So but Thor had concerns about
burden. Thor's concerned that he
actually might just be a gadget player.
So but that's one that's been kind of like split down the
middle. It wouldn't be like, oh, 75% of
people are saying that this is bad, but Lance is saying it's
good. So there's not.
I'm looking right now. I'll give Lance credit.
Like he had a good film grade on Matthew Golden like early and
then like the buzz. Honestly, he's had several guys
like this where I'm like, oh, Lance just like had that dude
there in February. So I don't see, I'm looking at
it. I don't, I don't see one that's
like just sticking out to me. That's like he loves them and no
one else does. There probably is 1 just because
you guys know how the film stuff works.
Like if you've talked to one film person, you've talked to
one film person like that. I mean, that's, that's, that's
the way that goes, but there's none that are just sticking out
to me off the top of my head. It also takes a while to watch
film. So I think some of the Kyle
Williams rise. It's like, do people not get to
him? Yeah, he was the wider, he was
the wider receiver 19 so. So it took you until February
19th to get to the Kyle? Williams film and watched him.
Yeah. I mean, his last name starts
with Awi mean maybe we're going alphabetical.
I don't know. I really do try new.
Edge unlocked in early Best ball drafts draft the.
Guys, I do tend to lean towards the people that I know grind
this stuff all year and like that's their job.
Like if you think about Lance, that's, you know, he does other
things, but a big part of his job is always getting ready.
Matt Waldman grinds these players all year long, right?
So when they when they get to this point in the year, I also
think that's kind of interesting because they're also probably
less likely to be influenced by like the echo chamber.
When a player suddenly gets like you've already got like these
strong convictions and you've already spent a lot of time,
like I talked to Matt all the time and he when that sort of
thing happens, he's not naive to it.
He'll go back and re watch a player and especially if like he
hears something from someone like he really respects.
But I think there's danger in not starting your process until
like February and then trying to cram for six or seven weeks.
I don't think it's bad. I think it's great that people
do it. Like have a day man, go have
fun. I just know I don't have a
system and like, I would probably be subject to like, not
maybe treating everyone fairly and equally.
So I try to lean into someone else.
But I really do favor the people that I think are studying
college film all year round. Because here's the other thing.
What's the one component of what we're doing that's the most like
what the NFL is doing? The NFL is getting their arms
around analytics. But some departments are good.
Some departments are not good necessarily.
Like, I mean, obviously they have a lot of smart people
working in all of them, but what have they been doing their whole
damn life? Grinding freaking film, man, and
getting trained by other people that know how to grind film.
So it's really tough to say you're going to get an edge
grinding film. Over.
That's how I've always. That makes their number the
number. One way they make a decision is
grinding film with some dude that his dad raised him.
Like when he was four he started watching film or some shit.
Like it's, it's a lot to overcome.
So 100%. Personally, I'm just like, I
can't, I can't beat that. How?
How can I add but? On the highlights, The
highlights are great, I highly recommend them.
Dude I said something about this on Twitter like 2 months ago
man. People said I was the biggest
Dick ever. So you're not allowed to.
You're not allowed to admit you. You like the highlights.
You have to assemble highlights yourself by individually
watching the game. And if you if it's from the
wrong camera angle, dude. Opinion invalidated brother and.
You tweeted out all 22 without sound and then you know, ball,
but if you. Put on something.
Some sweet music doesn't. Count.
I think there are people that are doing it that are getting.
And so I don't want to dissuade people like I think Hayden Wayne
thinks, like, from where he's come like a long way in three
years. Like I actually will watch some
of Hayden's film takes. And I'm like, OK, like, I could
totally see this. Yeah.
Do what makes you happy, you know?
Yeah, do what makes you happy. Exactly.
Well, and but it goes back to at the end of the day, you know,
there's 2 levels to this, right? There's like just the content
consumption of it all. People like to watch film
breakdowns. Like it's fun for people who
like football. But then there's this aspect,
like we are trying to find actionable information to help
us draft better fantasy football team.
And of all these film grinders, there's literally only one that
you can use to build out a robust bottle that isn't like a
black box thing, that isn't paywalled, that allows you to
actually search if there's signal in it.
And just think how much better this would be if all of those
had the like comprehensive database that Lance does.
And then you could test them. You could see who's good at
this. The competition would make
everyone better at their film grades, less sloppy with it
because it'd be like, fuck, this is getting aggregated and back
tested. Like that's the thing I think
we're missing with it. It's like, let's have.
More the first person Pete that has to share your findings of
how the film graders all did. Oh no.
Like I don't think I would have it in me.
Like you just would get real. Well, that's like coach speak
index. They just launched their their
mock draft index. Like looking at the the mock
drafters with the best historical success.
Because again, we're in this era where everyone has these mock
drafts and you're like, yeah, they're fun to read, but it's
also like who's actually good at this?
It's it's hard to know. You are How much?
People love the film stuff for clicking for the for the Click
to get them to come watch something.
This what we're doing has a very there's a lot of people now, the
people that love it, absolutely love it and they and they really
want the content, But like your average person, like this is a
stretch for them. You know, this is kind of like
they're probably not going to watch this.
I mean, sorry, guys, sorry to bring your showdown for the day,
but like, you know, just it just it just you're used to it.
It just depends like on the, and I'm with you, Pete.
I'm like, hey, and I know Pat, you and Davis, you're the same
way. It's like, how do I, how do I
provide you with something actionable?
And this is the only way I really know how to do it.
Yeah. Yeah, I can.
I can watch and get opinions on the guys, but like, brother, I'm
just like, if you were like, all right, Davis, you got to give me
your truth serum running back rankings.
They'd be terrible, dude. I'd be like, yeah, Devin Neil is
the second best running back in this class because Devin Neil
just looks amazing. But you know, there are a lot of
reasons to think it's not going to.
Work. You know what would be an
amazing like, like a, an amazing like a test?
It would be somehow all the true, all the film grinders that
grind the film all year and all the insiders don't leak any
information around where players are going to go in the draft.
And everyone has to actually then go do their film evaluation
for sure. Do you know how much it would
change? What I will tell you is like the
model would be the same way without draft capital, but I've
tested it without draft capital. And then I tell people, here's
how good the model is without it.
Here's how good the model is with it.
And it's not that far apart. I actually feel pretty good
about it. Of course, like I want NFL draft
in there. I'm not stupid.
Like, you know, I'm going to embrace that and use that.
But I don't know where film would land.
If if if that was done in vacuum, like blindly, I think it
would be all over the damn place.
It is tough because I mean, like, I know I'm biased, you
know, like I I think Harold Fannon looks awesome when he
runs because I looked at his stats and then I and I, yeah, I
put it on. I was like, I guess duck feet
are actually sick. I'm into this, right?
I don't I don't like, but I everyone's everyone's got their
own biases as well. It's just like it's hard.
It's hard without, you know what you've done here with Lance
Airlines grades to go, OK, this is actually we can actually back
test. How how much does he add on top
of draft capital? Because that would be the thing
where to your point, like the NFLS leaning a ton on on film as
well. Yeah, so I talked to him and I
and you know, he bases this all on film and on traits, right, to
get better. But when you work in a role like
that, this is my question to him.
I was like, hey, I got to imagine like you, you and your
staff and your team, y'all are talking to teams and I know you
are because I see the quotes, they put them in the write ups
right around the players and NFL and an NFC scout director said
XYZ around Jayden Higgins and he said yes.
He says there's no way for it to not influence him.
And he does start to get an idea of they view a player as a third
round pick. So there is still the potential
for this to have draft capital signal in it as well.
And when I test all the components against draft
capital, the one that has the the strongest signal to draft
capital is film rating. And some of it is that.
The other part of it is he's kind of following the process
that they use the most, which is film.
He's giving us access to like an NFL film, scouts, analysis.
He doesn't work for a team. He kind of.
He works for the public, which is, which is pretty sweet, but
there would be overlap I would assume, Yeah.
And he and he said that he said if he talks to a team that says
they've got a second round grade on a player and he's got him as
a fourth round grade, he's going to go back and re watch that.
It doesn't guarantee he's going to change it, but if he like
goes, maybe watches three extra games and now he suddenly does
see some things that make more sense, he will change the grade
again all before the NFL draft. He locks them like once the once
draft day gets here. So yeah, I think it's it's
impossible to completely get that like out.
I don't think there's any way to completely eliminate it from the
work you're doing. We should transition too tight
end that I I did put Harold Fannon on the cover one because
we've been talking about him on ship chasing as Tyler says, I'm
into this Korean now has a duck foot fetish and it coincides
nicely with the supermodel because that was one of the
first things I noticed when you published this year's version of
how above market you were on Harold Fannon junior and it did
push me to drafting a ton of him in the big board early.
So what does the what does the model like with our duck footed
king? Yeah, I it absolutely loves him.
I mean his production rating is a 100.
If any model did not like a dude with a 50%.
Dominated rating. I mean, yeah, it would be.
How did this work with? Did the other or were there
previous 100 tight ends that are now like 81?
Yes, like they. How did this?
Did he break your model? Yeah, he he only knocked Brock
Bowers out for production rating.
Brock Bowers, There you go. Top production rating.
And Harold Fannon freaking just ripped it straight from Brock's,
you know, pry grip hands A 1.92 adjusted career Ripta is is is,
you know, the best score we've ever had in that category.
And again, we're adjusting there for the fact that he played a
28th or a 25th percentile strength of schedule played on a
28th percentile program quality. It comes out to a great a rating
of 64 in the supermodel. So it's already adjusting for
all that. That's first thing I played.
Just easy competition. I'm like, yeah, I know.
And the model gives him, gives a projection of what he should
have done based on other historical players that played a
schedule like he did. And he still blew it completely
out of the water. Like, so I mean, what do you
want me to do? Like he still comes out with
this great grade. And then the other part is if we
look at his career targeted quarterback rating, So what did
you do when you got the ball? 125, that's 79th percentile.
So he's like blowing it out of the water in both of these
categories. And that's what gives him that
A-100 production rating. Like if you look, if you just
look at his, to give you an example, his career ripped a
period. So just his receiving yards per
team pass attempt and the games he played divided by his team's
pass attempts was 2.13. He's a 1.92 in the adjusted,
right. So it pushes him down because
why? It's adjusting for his schedule,
it's adjusting for his team. But once you do that across all
prospects, he has the best grade ever still, even though Brock
Bowers played a tougher schedule.
So the thing with me with Fannin like so production rating's
great pulling him up in the model A film rating is from
Zeroline at 77's pretty good. But I think that it's funny the
things that people nitpick about him, right.
If you look at it, what his they're like OK, his weight, his
weight was 241 and he probably put on some water weight for the
combine, not gonna lie, but still 241.
If you go back and look at the first round draft picks since
2018 that were tight ends, like their average weight is like
247. It's like 6 lbs.
People act like he's 220 lbs. I've even say I've even heard
people say like oh he's like 230.
Like he is. He's not.
He's he's over 240. Yeah.
And I think so. The other thing you hear is,
well, it wasn't an in line blocker, right?
43% of his snaps came in line. Well, OK, well what about Brock
Bowers? 36% of his snaps came in line.
What about Kyle Pitts 50%, Ty Warren in this own class, 42%,
Michael Mayer 38%, Dalton Kincaid 40%, Sam Laporta 54%.
So like he's in the range of all these dudes.
And also if you look at tight ends, the NFL teams are going to
take in the 1st 2 rounds and and then the top part of the third
round. None of them are blockers guys.
They bring them to the league to be pass catchers and they just
need them to be adequate at that other thing.
And guess what? I think the barrier to entry is
getting lower and lower because we're seeing these guys play
sooner and sooner like Sam Laporta.
Sam Laporta was a bad college blocker.
That was terrible, Yeah. But what's funny is out of the
same the same people will then say, but yeah, man, Gunner helm,
Gunner helm was an in line tied in in college like and if you.
You be careful about besmirching the name of Gunner.
Helm. Around Gunner Helm.
Gunner Helm had to had to stay in line and and.
Blast. His ankle. 71% and so people
think that automatically means gunner helm is good, but then
gunner helm had the worst PFF run block grade.
Now to be fair, it's because he actually was trying to.
I was. Going to say he actually did
have to block and got given tough assignments and played in
the. SEC we need a we need a run
block grade over expected for these tight ends.
That's. That's what we do.
It's. Unironic, unironic dude.
No, I'm not. I'm not.
Yeah. It's actually on the list for
next year. But but my point being is most
of these guys like we're we're, we are really docking Harold
Fannon in a huge way for things that honestly have been, we
could say them about all the good tight ends that have come
out since 2018 that we care about in fantasy.
They all had the same flaw. The only one that didn't was TJ
Hawkinson. I mean, he was at a 73% in line
snap rate with the PFF run block rate of 69.5.
Like he's it. He's like the lone Unicorn.
Everyone else was like this other profile.
So I just, I feel like people are overrating it and just
trying to find a way to talk down about our boy Harold Fan
and. Pat, the other thing is like
he's he's expected to go day 2, probably round three.
Like Xerline's pretty into him. Dame Bruegler's like reasonably
into him. They're not they don't love him,
but they're no one's like killed.
No one's like this guy's like a day three guy, you know, he's a
gadget dude. Like he's a he's a big slot
tight end who's great after the catch, you know, and he doesn't
do everything, but he does it. It feels to me like the film
guys agree, like he does what he does well, really well.
And this is tight end where we know that even if the NF LS like
leaning towards receiving archetypes early on, like they
don't just draft tight ends because they're big receivers.
They have to do multiple things at the NFL level.
So, but we just care about some of those things a lot more than
the NFL does. Like we care about the receiving
traits way, way, way more than the NFL does.
So things like film, great things like draft capital
wouldn't be as tied to future production and fantasy because
it's incorporating stuff we don't care so much about South
film. Writing, actually, what's funny,
Pat, is the film ratings project really well to future drafts.
So my I actually think the opposite.
I think the NFL and the early rounds of the draft actually
care about the same exact things we do.
They just they're looking for the receivers now.
There's a sliding scale of what can they do beyond be good,
being good receivers. And I think that's where Harold
Fannin probably gets a little bit of a downgrade.
But at the same time, like if you go look at the tight ends
that have been taken in the first 3 rounds of the draft,
they're they're all receiving prospects.
They're not. You don't take Tip Riemann in
freaking Round 2 just 'cause you think he can play in 12.
Spurman and Allen go on. Second round, I mean you, you
get these guys who go like that are just straight up not
receivers that go that. Go in a few yeah, but not a ton
like most. Most makitty and stuff like
there are some dudes that are like what's going on like the.
Tip the tip Ryman pick, I didn't even know who he was.
When he got drafted right right drew sample because I do this
work, but it wasn't a sample is. A good one.
There, There. It does.
It does happen. Luke Lachey.
Like if you told me Luke Lachey went ahead of Harold Fan in the
NFL draft, I'd be like, I mean, I think it's stupid.
Yeah. Drew Sample was pick 52.
I care a little bit less less about the ordering is what I'm
getting at then I then I would at receiver, you know and
running back. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Quarterback, you know, like just give me.
Sufficient cap skills. Yeah, I, I agree with that.
Like I, I like worst case scenario you work up, you woke
up and you had a rookie draft the next day and you hadn't read
any model or listened to any podcast.
Like for receivers and running backs, Like I would be like,
fine, I'll just draft off of where they went in the draft,
but it tied in like you would have to kind of adjust.
That yeah, that's my point. But it is interesting, but he's.
He's going to have sufficient capital.
Yeah, You know, he'll be a day too.
Early round 3 would be good landing with an offensive minded
coach and the other potential path here.
I'm not saying it's 100% there because we talk about this sort
of stuff all the time and it doesn't materialize.
Kind of like the the training camp reports of the running back
playing slot. You know, we're everywhere.
We're like guys, it's not going to happen.
I'm just going to tell you. But but Fannon is such an
interesting player. Like wherever he lands, I won't
just be looking at the tight end on the roster.
I think I'll be looking at the slot player.
At the slot, yeah. Yeah, like if he went to
Jacksonville and they were suddenly like, OK, Brian Thomas,
Junior Beast, you can do everything.
Harold Fan and Junior, we're going to take you at the
beginning of Round 3 and we're going to play you in Chris
Godwin's role as the power slot can block and do like that would
be like that's my. Best drafted player.
You can't say things like that. That would be phenomenal.
Yeah. Get a little motion going.
Yeah, that's a great example. At the top, we were talking
about how much the draft capital swings can impact things.
And like there's there's rumors that Mason Taylor, you know,
could sneak into the back end of round one.
But you see just the differences in their profile here that even
with a projected capital of 45 and 77 for Taylor and Fannin,
that Fannin is still ahead of him even with that gap.
I have a question for you guys based on something the model
saying about tight end. If you want to talk more fannin
we can, but I have another tight end.
Go ahead. Let's do it.
So Tyler Warren in the non draft capital model ranks 24 spots
below where he. He looks like he looks like shit
because he is old and didn't produce until his final season
and was behind two guys in the NFL who were like Fine and Theo
Johnson and Bretton Strange. I've been I've been saying it
and no one wants to hear it. Yeah, and the model gives him
credit for playing with those guys.
But like, he played with Friar moves too in that first year.
But in order for it to give him credit, like they have to meet
certain receiving yards per team, pass attempt, RIP to
thresholds. And even though those guys were
NFL draft picks, none of them were like bad asses in college.
Like his target errors. So he gets a small bump for it,
but not a very big bump. And he didn't do any basically.
Like had Tyler Warren decided to come out in the NFL draft last
year, he would have been like a round four pick.
And now he's going to be around one pick.
And the thing that worries about it worries me about him.
Like, what's interesting is like some of the comments I hear from
the film people now Lance gives this guy, he's way up here.
He's my he's my #5 tight end all time.
I Colson Loveland's ahead of him in the supermodel, but Tyler
Warren's right there. The take away is they're the
same pick, the one you want, right?
They're the same in the supermodel.
Like their hit rates are the same, but Tyler Warren, even
though he gets this high, high grade from Lance, like multiple
people that I've listened to that are like I trust on film
talk about he's almost the Luther burden of tight ends.
It's all this design stuff underneath screens, no?
Dude, an NFL, an NFL team is totally going to let him be a
Wildcat quarterback. I don't know what guys.
I mean, obviously everyone knows the first thing you know the
Bears are going to do when they take him attendance, they're
going to say, you know what we need to do?
Get this guy 6.5 fantasy points by letting him run in a
touchdown from the one Totally. Look what he did with Brock
Bowers. I mean, Brock Bowers, who was
historically as, as Dwayne mentioned, the number one
prospect in his model of all time.
You know, famously he got to the Raiders and they were like, you
know, our quarterbacks kind of stink.
So we're going to let you do some of that.
Cool. Wow.
Oh wait, no, 0 designed rushes. For powers.
But it'll be totally. Different.
They should have done it though. They stay.
Well, of course they of course they should have done it.
Of course they should have done. It well look, Luke Getzi is not
going to do anything interesting.
So we'll, we'll see what your two looks like.
If Luke Getzi was like, you know, he's in front of you at
like the ice cream shop, you know, and he's, he's like
rolling up and he's ordering in front of you.
Like he's probably like tapioca. You know, it's like the most
vanilla thing you could think of.
Like you're like Jesus Christ man, get a topping on that thing
or something. But yeah, tapioca in a cup, no
toppings. Yeah, no cone, nothing.
So -20 that's interesting, you know, for him.
Loveland, you know, is actually sitting there, right?
Even you know with where. It's interesting.
I was interested like I think there's a little bit of worry
for me with Tyler Warren against still going to grade out really
high. He's got he's got a overall
overall super mile rating of 84. So Kyle Pitts is actually the
all time leader overall in the supermodel.
I hate to bring up a sore subject.
Then Brock Bowers 91, TJ Hawkinson 88 and then it's going
to be Colson Loveland and Tyler Warren tied at 84, right.
But they're they're all they're both above.
Dalton Kincaid was a 79. Sam LaPorte is a 76, Trey
McBride 76. So like, they're in a fantastic
range for and like these players.
That's kind of the range, right? I have really too.
Yeah, the I've had Loveland and Warren like back-to-back.
You know, if, if, if I was just saying the market, they would
have been back-to-back the whole time in in best ball.
But I am cooling on Loveland with this Like there's some
rumblings about his shoulder. That's the only thing for me is
like if the in, you know, maybe long term that's not a concern,
but it does seem like it could affect his draft capital a
little bit. I know he dropped like 2 in the
last week I believe on NFL mock draft database.
But I I think. It's been a riser till.
That point, yeah, the yeah, it it's funny the song and dance
those two are doing as well based on like draft capital and
how we're thinking about them. And I do agree.
Like the way to play it now is is mainly through the cheaper
one, Loveland. But then the other kind of
elephant in the room is dodging the Colts landmine.
And it would be funny to see them flip flop again right?
Where it's like even now, if the NFL or or the market prefers
Warren, it's like then he goes say earlier than Loveland but to
the Colts. And then Loveland goes in like
the 20. Then I think everyone will flip
back in favor of Loveland as they're tied in one anyways.
The Colts are the one spot where might he might actually play
quarterback. We we should at least back.
Together. OK.
All right. You're.
Back man What's? What's the thing about this is I
actually think you get more value after the draft because
people now start to move away from draft capital and they
start to maybe overvalue their understanding of what a coach
will do and how a team will use a player.
And they're also dismissing just the random ass variance that
happens in an NFL season with injuries and everything else.
So I think it'll be really interesting.
Like right now, like I don't know if it's still this way, but
on Underdog, I was just taking Loveland every time because it
was like 20 pick difference. And they're the same in the
model. And that's really what the
models designed to do. The models not designed to be
like help. It could you could use it to
make a player stand. But the reason I made the model
was to say, Hey, there's these four guys that are really
similar. These three are all going
together in this spot and your dynasty drafts and in this spot
and, and like your best ball drafts.
And there's this one guy that's the same as all of them based on
what the model says. And he's going 20 picks later.
Like, like, that's really the beauty of like the model is to
help you like try to find that player and like it's Ben Colston
Loveland, like in early basketball drafts, like he goes.
I, I, it was 20 picks later. So I, I think it's starting to
tighten up a little bit now. I want to make sure we we hit on
running backs as well down the stretch here, Dwight, I'll, I'll
throw it to you like it. Is there anyone that stands out
from that perspective of a big swing as far as with draft
capital versus not draft capital in the model?
Yeah, absolutely. There are some, there are some
really good ones. So if you if you look at like
I'll, I'll start at at the top guys, but we'll start with Omari
and Hampton. And it's not that the model
doesn't like him. The model looks at Omari and
Hampton as a guy that really checks all the boxes, but he
doesn't have like a hang your hat trait.
Like as far as the models concerned, remember we're just
talking what the players production is adjusted for all
those factors. Then we're looking that, you
know, their film rating, their speed score and then where we
think they're going to go in the draft.
But since 2000, the model for running backs goes back to 2017.
And since then, like he's the number 13 prospect all time with
draft capital, but he drops to 22 without it.
And it. Yeah, so and it's not, that's
still not terrible. Like we had a lot of good
running backs like, you know, since, you know, 2017.
So there's been some really good players.
Running back. Yeah, he well like that kind of
puts him in that range in the non draft capital model.
So again, like a guy like he does everything fine.
There's not any one thing like you can't hang your hat on his
on his receiving profile. You can look at it and go, if he
landed on a team that had one good wide receiver, he might, he
can catch the ball, He might get like 1213% target share lands on
a team like if he was Saquon last year on the Eagles and you
have A.J. Brown and Devon Smith and Dallas
Gotter, he's probably getting like a 7% target share.
Like he's not. He's never going to be a
centerpiece to a passing game, right?
But there's not many running backs that are.
But he really could be great on early downs and he does have
this explosive nature to him. So I still like him.
Like I ultimately think the best landing spot is a team where
they immediately plug him into that early down role that
doesn't have a good passing down back.
So he's just good enough to like fill in in that role.
And we just take what we can get kind of like Jonathan Taylor.
Like we don't ever expect Jonathan Taylor to have like
this 15% target share. We're like, we'll take the
10:00, we'll take the 11 on top of like what else he can do?
I think he. Could even be like a Zeke, you
know? Yeah, I think he could, too.
Like, I don't think he's the same prospect as Zeke, but like,
once you get in the lead, I don't either land in your spot.
I certainly could see him, yes. Doing doing what?
And Zeke is a great example. Like in those years where the
Cowboys were hurting a little bit at receiver, he would have
that 10 or 12% target share, which was just enough.
He'd never be a 16% guy, but he could be in that 10 to 12%.
Exactly. Exactly.
But he could also be like a Nick Chubb.
You know that kind of. Yeah.
So he that was one of the comps for for Omari and Hampton.
And to be clear, guys, he's. Not that good, dude.
With with just. Stylistically, I don't he's not.
He's not the elite runner that that Chubb was.
But. It's going to be such an insane
bummer to not be able to draft Omari and Hampton a Baseball
Mania 6, because he's not going to be.
You're not going to be able to get him in the fourth round.
Take him in the fourth round. Now take him in the 4th.
Round Now he's a. Priority.
He's a genuine priority. He he's going to be a second
round pick. He's probably like AJK Dobbins
or something. I don't want to have to spend a
second round pick on him. So don't do it now.
Yeah, I actually think, I actually think Nick Chubb is
very much in his range of outcomes.
I, I mean, I, I'm such a Nick Chubb, like Truther Stan of like
how much I love him. I'm not going to argue like
throw on the film kind of thing and just watch Nick Chubb.
He's an absolute beast. Put on the film.
Dude, yeah, but traits wise across everything, man.
Like when you just put it all together, they're really close.
Like I and, and by what we mean is a really good early down
runner that never becomes a major part in the passing game.
Now, when you like just, you know, look at all the raw stuff,
like I agree, like Nick Chubb will probably have more yards
per carry in those things for his career than what we're going
to end up with with Omari and Hampton.
But man, I think they're very close as prospects.
And, and here's the thing, like with draft capital, like looking
at Omari and Hampton and where he graded out in the model, he's
pretty safe. 92% of his comps became top three running backs.
77% of his comps were running back twos.
Wait, top top three scores in a season?
No top 36 running backs so why top meaning meaning a running
back three sorry good clarifier top 6 running backs 23% Davis
but but top 12 finishes 62% of the backs that had his profile
went on to give you an A running back one season.
If you're considering that to be the top 12 backs, the all of his
comps like here they are Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Rashad
Penny, Nick Chubb and Zach Charbonnet.
I got Charbonnet. I got, I got Charbonnet and
Breece as well, yeah. And most people get surprised at
the Breece one because they think that Breece was actually
even way better than he was as a receiver in college like he was.
He wasn't. But he wasn't over yet.
Crane I. Was about to say that call is
coming from inside the house. No, I my thing with Breece,
Breece to me is one of them and there's several examples, but
guys who are sufficient as receivers in college and then
are, you know, bringing other real strengths to the table.
We got to leave the light on for them as receivers in the in the
at the pro level. They could add that to their
game. Now, if you're betting on them
to like come in and specialize as a receiver, that's don't do
that. But like there's, I view it as
like there's you got your camaras who are just absolutely
dominant receivers. You know, from an efficiency
standpoint, they were, they were amazing or CMC, right.
Then you go to like you're James Cook's who are like flashing
some really interesting stuff as a receiver.
Then you've got like a big, big, big group of guys that Bruce
would be in. So like a Zeke would be in two
where you're like, yeah, they can probably do it.
And then you've got guys where it's like this guy's like never
caught a ball so. Yeah.
And he had like a 3% target share, like in his best year.
Yeah, yeah. Well, it is interesting kind of
seeing how much Omarion Hampton's draft capital is
propping him up in the model relative to JT Pick 41, Breeze
pick 36, Dalvin 41, Mixon 48. The model basically says Omarion
Hampton is should really be a round two pick, not round one,
as much as I like him, I think. The model.
The model knows ball. Thank you.
I'll I'll pass on the compliment because it's not me.
I need to show up to one of these shows with like a a blow
up doll. It's like my supermodel.
Like the model? Yeah, that would be really
great. Chad, did you have one more
thing on Omarion? I would, I would note that.
And you know, I think this is, it makes sense to me that from
the Miles perspective, he doesn't have like 1 trait you're
hanging your hat on. I think from our perspective, as
we think about what he can do in fantasy football production, I
do think he has the potential to be a workhorse and, and kind of
like, so there's certain ways that he like doesn't pop, but
then he's like handling these big workloads.
So you're like, yeah, maybe he's not going to be as big of a
tackle Breakers like Javante Williams, but Williams was a
committee back in college and this dude like handled the load.
And then you combine that with the expected first round draft
capital and you're looking at, I would hope because why are you
spending a first round pick on this guy?
Otherwise, I would hope that a team is looking at him as
someone they can just plug in and be a backfield early in his
career. And then you if you add the fact
that he's checking all the boxes in terms of sufficient at
everything, you add that plus an elite workload or at least a
very high end workload. And I mean, he could easily, I
think he could pay off the second round pick is like is the
Broncos running back. If he goes 20 of the Broncos and
is going second round, I'm not gonna hard fade him.
He could pay that off. I just don't want.
I just would prefer to have a big bag now and not be chasing
later. Yeah, I, I agree with that.
I, I the model really does like him.
It's just that without he is getting pushed up quite a bit by
draft capital and he's been a late riser.
Like he was looked at as really in the same group is like
Trayvon Henderson, Quin, Shawn Judkins.
He was slightly above them when the, you know, mock drafts
really started getting serious and ramping up.
And now like, he's moved in to where, oh, maybe he goes to the
Cowboys at 12, right? Like that's kind of feels like
the ceiling now. So I I think essentially he was
probably graded right and then now slightly overrated, you
know, but to your point for fantasy, he goes in round one.
They're going to use him like they should.
They should use him so you. Should please use him if you're
going to take him in round one, yeah.
What? Yeah.
What about what about Cam Scatabo?
Everybody's the most polarizing prospect here.
No juice, no juice. Scatabo, they're calling him.
So plus 10, so actually a a positive thing here.
If you look at him, you know, in the model without draft capital,
he's 29th since 2017. If you add draft capital in,
he's 39th. So the model actually likes him
a little bit better than the. NFL sleeping on this guy.
I will tell you the supermodel has a weakness and it's
receiving profiles because like they're really amped up in the
model because that's where you get like these massive hits in
fantasy, right? So I'll give you some other
examples though. So here are the historical
players that the model liked more, the non draft capital
model like more than the supermodel, which is which
includes draft, which includes draft capital, right.
And so these had to be guys that graded at least 80 plus in the
non draft capital model and again had that Tim.
Can I guess one? Guess.
Aaron Jones. No, but my model doesn't model
back to 2017 so Aaron Jones is in it and he was liked more by
the non draft capital model but it what he didn't meet the
criteria of 10. Do you want to?
Does anyone want another guess? And and and all you have to know
is like receiving bags. Alvin Kamara.
Yes, Alvin Kamara was a + 10. Rashad was a + 14.
What was Naeem Heinz? No.
Christian McCaffrey, although his draft couples.
Well, I know, yeah, he was too high.
Like he was too high. He's like, he's like, he's like
the third best all time in the model.
So because there's really no way to make him higher, like there's
no room. Antonio Gibson was plus 9.
I I included that one in the show sheet with Ian, even though
he didn't meet the 10 because Ian's always talking about
Antonio Gibson. Travis CTN Plus 12.
Is Travis CTN. In there?
Nope. No, but we hit them all.
Rashad White plus 14, Camara plus 10, Antonio Gibson +9 HM
plus 12, and Scatabo plus 10. Those are the guys that were in
his range. That's a pretty good track
record. Yeah, Antonio Gibson didn't work
out, but I think, you know, some of that was injured.
Like dude, he was on. The he did work out.
He was a third round pick. He was a starting running back
multiple seasons. He worked out like.
He did work out, he just did my. Third round pick standards,
Yeah. Should we, should I have touted
him as a 12 turn pick that year? No.
But he worked out from a career perspective.
I've got a I've got a mental comp for scataboo that just came
up to me that I want to get out before.
It better not be a Pokémon character, Davis.
I could come up with one real Snorlax ass vibe.
Yeah, grass type. If remember Alfred Morris, like
imagine if Alfred Morris could catch Alfred Morris was like
famous. He famously he was like the
worst receiver of all the Shanahan backs ever.
But like super slow, super plotting, but a great tackle
breaker. I'm still, I'm still woke to
Scatabo, even when he's going to end up being a take round.
Pick. So what's interesting like is
when you hear the film, people talk about Scatabo, like the way
they look at him is they're like, he's this guy that could
like do a little bit of he could do, he could fill in any of
these roles if you needed him to.
Oh, you need him to be your pass catcher for a game, He could do
it. Oh, you need him to like get
gritty and like give you 18 carries in a game.
He could do it. The way the supermodel looks at
Scatabo is it's like, what if he did all those things?
Like, he was actually good at all those things in college?
And if what is somehow he does land in a role and maybe it's
not long term, but it's like, you know, for seven games in a
season, Yeah, right at the end of a best ball mania.
I'd take that. Yeah, it would work out, I
think. So, you know, and the film
rating for Scatabo is an 85 because remember in running back
for running back, I'm also including their composite career
PFF run grade and their PFF receiving grade.
So it's lands airlines grades plus those weighted together.
So he has a really good film rating grade of 85.
His production rating is an 86. If you look at his best ripped a
season like 7. So receiving yards per team pass
attempt 75th percentile, best target share season 16%.
So like this guy can be the receiving back.
He also carried a pretty big rushing workload at times in
college. Yeah, he's a little older.
Model's already counting that against him.
Model adjusts all his production over his career for the fact
that he did some of those things at an older age.
So I man, I, I like him and I'll be really interested to see
where he lands. I feel like he has a lot of outs
though, because he could do the things film people are saying,
Oh, you're passing down, got back, got hurt, he can fill in
and he might just take the job. Oh, your early down back got
hurt? He could fill in and take that
role. Oh, you don't have someone that
does both of those and your starter got hurt, He could do
both of those things. So I really like Scatabo.
I mean, his production profile is really good.
A production rating of 86. It's one of the best in the
class. Yeah, and and what about
receiving for me like he's he, he's a genuinely very strong
receiving prospect who's also like 219 lbs and good and short
yardage. And he's like his jumps were
awesome. I know the 40 time wasn't wasn't
great, but it's like he gets he's got burst, you know, he can
get through. The he's getting docked for that
speed score here, right? His speed score rating is 75 and
the model his speed score was 100 point 450th percentile.
So that that's that's pulling him down.
But I still like him. Well, Speaking of Speed Score,
let's talk. About yeah, I know who we're
talking about. Mashaal Tootin.
Top of the top of the model as far as speed score rating and
another guy who has kind of a wider range in the model with
and without draft capital. Yeah, this guy would be 27th all
time without draft capital. He's 49th with it, Yeah.
So a + 22 difference, he would be the if I just took it out for
this year of context of this year and just said Nah, I'm
going with a non draft capital supermodel.
And just to give you guys like insight, the the non draft
capital supermodel has a .7 O correlation to future fantasy
success that ties with NFL draft capital alone.
If you add NFL draft capital together with the model, it's a
.76. So like it's this has been
pretty good. Like even without draft capital.
Obviously we let's use the draft capital.
That's a you know, we want to get to the .76.
But he would be the running back 5 instead of the running back
eight in this class for the model if I was using the non
draft capital model. Do you know like how much he
would improve if you were to take 'cause you have his draft
capital's 122? Like if he was pick 80, would
that like how big of a difference would that make?
Yeah, I definitely like to go around.
You guys talk about Pokémon or something for a second all.
Right, so. If baseball 2 is the.
Chameleon No. What pick do you say, Pat you?
Give him like 80. Give him. 80 Give him something
the Yeah, perfect all. Right, I'll just all right, I
just, I just put it at 80 all. Right #1 running back in the
club. Jackie Yeah, that's when, you
know, the model's broke. If if my life's flicker, it's
because I'm having to change. And it's just the whole show is
just us being like Dwayne put the guy one O 1 over all the NFL
drafted. See what?
Happens make Devin Neal a first round pick.
What happens What happens if he goes to the Cowboys to pick 12?
So he would move to a 72 in the model, which would put him in
the same tier as Caleb Johnson. Cam Scatabo above Dylan Sampson,
just two points below Quin. Shawn Judkins.
So that's not a huge move because he's at 7:00.
But again, remember, remember he's not moving, He's not
picking up the early round capital where you get the big
swings in what you would expect. So like Omari and Hampton moving
from like having been pick 42 to now being pick 25 is actually
going to impact the model a lot more because those picks are are
worth so much more like the value of those picks.
What? What about would Henderson flip
Hampton if he went back into round one?
Because. Where?
Where do you want me to put in Pete?
Like 28 so much. Press the show Is Dwayne making
changes to? His and I'm going to forget, I'm
going to forget and I'm going to publish this later.
It's just going to be like. Ship chasing the ship chasing
fever dream version. Of the bottle.
But like 25 or or 28 something behind.
Yeah, yeah. Like to the commanders or
whatever, Yeah. I did pick 25.
I would love him to the commanders actually.
Yeah, I would. That'd be so fun.
Over that, that would be sick. I think it's a life.
I think it could happen. I, I, I really like Trevion.
He's my #3 or actually, yeah, he's yeah, he's my #3.
It's Genti, Hampton and Trevion. Trevion would jump to 79, which
would put him even with Hampton. That feels right, yeah.
You would put him even with prospects like Dalvin Cook. 1
below Dalvin Cook. It put him one above DeAndre
Swift. It would put him two above
Javonte. Couple couple questions.
So this shouldn't involve any changes to your model.
Where does? Jetty control Z in this year
right now, so I don't forget later.
Yeah, that's a good. Way of Lara since his first
round. Yeah, I I'm waiting on the land.
Lara, hey, hey, hey, hey. No jokes about land.
Did you ever get him on the show, Davis?
I did a little homework. I listened to you guys while I
was mowing. No, I texted.
Him, I texted him yesterday and he didn't text me back.
So I think maybe that's going to be my white whale for for this
offseason. I have to come back on at some
point when Jacob Sanderson's on here so I can just pick the
Harold Fannenbone with him. Like, 'cause you know, I love
Jacob. Super smart guy.
He's just wrong. He's just wrong.
And that's OK. I think I've got.
I think I've gotten him, Dwayne, I think.
I think you got him. You already took care of it.
Yeah. OK.
Yeah. Usually I'm.
I'm actually joking. Like Jacob's, like so smart.
I I I love Jacob. He's great.
With the like the production based ceiling cases, it's rare
that I can, I can be the one to to get Jacob and I don't think
he liked how that felt. So he he seems to have come
around a little bit. The Genti.
Where does Genti rate all time for you?
Yeah, Genti is absolutely freaking amazing.
So Saquon Barkley is number one all time with a 100 supermodel
rating, Leonard Fournette a second with 92.
Now remember, Leonard Fournette went pick four.
And remember how much draft capital matters.
And the delta between these early picks is where they're the
biggest and Gentie. Now what if you gave Leonard
Fournette pick point? What if we backed up time
should. We retroactively submarine him
in the bottle. Yeah.
Yeah, we could. Can we can we introduce Leonard
Fournette to the treadmill after his?
So now Davis wants me to adjust his weight, Pat wants me to
adjust Leonard Fournette's draft capital.
OK, we could do all these things and we have to charge you guys.
No, Ashton Gente is #4 all time in the model.
Saquon Barkley is number one at 100.
Leonard Fournette is a 92 rating, and then Christian
Mccaffrey's a 91, and Ashton Gente is a 90.
Now had Gente ran, he might have gotten even with McCaffrey or
even he could have leaped him because McCaffrey was pick 8 and
Gente was pick 7. If you look at their production
rating, Christian McCaffrey is a 100, the best ever in the model
because of how good he was as a receiver.
But Gente is third in production rating at 93.
So Prashad White's actually second because of how well, how
good. I told you guys the model has a
type because of the receiving stuff.
But you have to do it because we're we, we're worried about
fantasy. And the other thing you have to
remember is when you think about these things and you're like,
OK, if draft capital's the number one thing in the model
and we have to figure out how do we become additive to draft
capital? You have to start to figure out
what are the potential things that NFL's not valuing that
matters for fantasy, right? And, and so that's where the
receiving stuff really starts to come in and becomes such an
important part, you know, in the model, because people see that
one all the time. And I'll get DM.
So like your model's trash man Rashawn White, we had a 96
production rating. I'm like, well, he did get a lot
of yards man, for like 2 years. And I know he was a JUCO
transfer and all, but like his. He also went third round.
Like it's not like he's some UDFA that is popping.
NFL did. He's a 76 overall, so the
model's not saying he's one of the best prospects ever.
It's just saying his production rating was one of the best ever.
And oh, by the way, like, his film rating was good, too.
So, like, film people liked Rashad Wine.
Yeah. But this nice 100 film rating
the best Thai Saquon Barkley for the best.
And it is nice to know that if Gente goes forward to the
Patriots and they don't have alignment to protect Drake, may
that that at least he might flip Uncle Lenny in your model.
Can you rerun Gente as if he played at Alabama?
What would that do to? The race I technically could
like I have to find the field where I put the word Alabama in
and then the model would recalibrate.
Let's let's do one more here, Polarizing guy, Caleb Johnson.
Oh yeah, that's a good one. Yeah, he's a really polarizing
player. Only polarizing to people who
won't watch the GD film. If they watch the film, they
will. Start systemizing your process,
Davis, and we'll talk. We'll get Davis if you will
systemize your process and you will get a grading criteria.
We'll put you, we'll test you and see if you can make it.
Into the Bottle film rating on the On the Shoulders of
Lanzerlight and Davis Maddock. I want, I want Davis to have a
time card though. I want to see him punch in and.
Punch out on this step because. You know, it's all Caleb Johnson
and Devin Neal. He's like, how's the students
look like? It's all it's every guy takes me
about four minutes and 30 seconds because.
That's how long this. Is on to productions.
You're very you like an NFL front office should hire you.
You were so much more efficient than like their scouting
department, right? Now easy, simple.
What is your suggested YouTube? Right now it's just other other
Devin Neal videos. It's mostly it's it's it's
Giddens, Harvey, Caleb Johnson and then Sam Sulik videos.
That's all. That's all that ever shows up.
So Davis is going to hate this. The the the two people that the
model likes the lease versus draft capital are Caleb Johnson
and Devin Neal. Now throw it already.
I know it's, it's complete trash.
Everyone has to know Thor has already screamed about, screamed
at me about both these #1 Thor's a Rock Chalk Jayhawk, you know,
truther, which is really where, let's be honest, that I tell
Thor that's where the Devon Nil things coming in.
And then Caleb Johnson's the other guy that he really does
like. So Caleb Johnson in the non
draft capital version of the model -23 versus where he shows
up in the draft capital version, right?
So it's a pretty big drop. Like with draft capital, he's
the 37th best prospect, you know, that we've seen, but
without it, he's the 60th. And again, a lot of this really
does come back to like, if you look at where he's sitting and
you look at like the things that the that the model is
ultimately, you know, dinging him for, it does come down to
some of this stuff, you know, as, you know, a receiver, right?
So if you look at him, you know his best ripped in the
percentile on that 38th percentile, like that hurts him.
If you look at his career adjusted yards per team attempt,
which you guys know how that works, you double receiving
yards versus rushing yards. But it also accounts for the
schedule and all the other stuff we talked about for receivers.
He comes in at the 50th percentile.
So like, it's fine. Like his production rating's a
76. It's in line with like where
Devon A Chan was. It's in line with Cam Akers,
Royce Freeman, JK Dobbins, Zach Chardonnay.
So like he's he's like it's not saying the production is crazy
bad, but it is It is saying that like the receiving profile.
He could probably be fine like as a check down guy, but like
would he ever be more than that? Probably not.
But honestly, that's a lot of the guys in the class right.
The other thing, like when you look at the model and what's
going on with him, is the the film grade for him, for Lance
wasn't as good. So when Lance watched his 4 1/2
minutes of film for Caleb Johnson Davis, he found him to
not be quiet like as good as you.
He gave him a film grade of 77, which is still not terrible, but
it's not in the range of what you would normally expect.
For players that are going to go in his range of the draft,
typically they're 80s and so that 77, why it may not seem a
lot is pulling him down. Now, having said all of that, he
still Grays out. He grades out as a 72 in the
rookie supermodel. And so like the thing again that
I talked about earlier, like the bigger thing on these players is
finding groups of players and like looking at their hit rates.
So he's in the same group for me.
He's tier 3 running back, 2 prospects.
Quin Shawn Judkins is in this group.
Caleb Johnson, you know, is in this group and it's really just
those two in the tier. But if you look at his comps,
89% of them, 89% of them went on to have a running back three
finish in their first three years, 56% were top 24 running
backs and 33% of them still got to top 12.
So while it doesn't like him quite as much as some of the
other guys we just talked about, it doesn't see it as being, Oh
my, it. I don't want people to walk away
thinking that the Model hate hates Caleb Johnson.
It is saying that his draft capital is pushing him up.
And then he's like, if the Model without draft capital were
assigning him where he should go in the draft, it would say that
he should be an end of Round 2, early round three pick.
So. And and like last year, he would
have been what, like the running back three in the class?
You know, maybe he's a victim of the of the strong class.
Yeah, I have been wondering if he actually falls in the draft
to maybe third round, which would be more in line with that
film. Great.
It seems like his like as far as draft buzz, he he peeked a
little earlier and it's it's like cooled off some.
But can I ask you about Dylan Sampson, who's to me like I just
like not that excited about Sampson, but the draft capital
and kind of like like a floor of like I think the NFL likes him
enough to where I'm not like terrified about what post draft
life looks like with the Dylan Sampson position.
There's lots of guys who I'm more intrigued by after him that
you know, I am worried about what the floor looks like.
But like Giddens, Harvey, Neil, those guys I Tooting for sure.
Like those guys, if they are third rounders, I want them over
Sampson. But even assuming Sampson's also
a third rounder. But I'm just like more worried
about the floor. Thoughts.
I guess I'm now getting back to asking you to adjust draft
capital for guys like Tanes. And Harvey, But yeah, so Dylan
Sampson, like production not good a 67, right?
And so his career, his career adjusted yards per team attempt
1.3 is in the 38th percentile. Not good, right?
If you look at him, you know, as a receiver, his best target
share was 7 percent, 7%, his best ripto, which is the thing
the model uses 23rd percentile. So really bad production
profile. Did play obviously like with
Jalen Wright and you know, you got some things going on there.
The Model gives him a little bit of credit for that.
What's carrying Dylan Sampson and the model?
He has an 85 film rating. It's really good.
So when you look at where he's going to go in the draft, you
look at that film rating. So essentially what the model is
saying about Dylan Sampson is the model sees things about him
and Lance sees things about him in his film that haven't
necessarily played out yet at the college level.
But there's this untapped upside that could now like take place
in the NFL game. And so those kind of players
like they're kind of tricky like to to really think about how
like you're going to comp them and how you're going to, you
know, work through like your your thoughts around them.
But let me see if I can find it real quick.
Oops. I just saw Devin Nil and he's
way down the list. Davis Sam, I think I wrote this
up. I'm looking for it.
Time to learn Just bombs, buddy. Yeah, man, I know, I know.
Yeah. So Lance talked about, you know,
his fill for time, spacing, blocking, like that's his
calling card. He talks about his short area,
short yardage chops despite like not big size, you know, he
comped him to Brian Westbrook, like.
And Lance is not one of these guys that will just throw out
like the comp that we'll get someone to come visit.
Like he actually, he's kind of stingy with giving a player a
good comp. Like you'll go read about a guy,
I'll read sometimes Lance's profile on a guy and I'm like,
this dude's freaking awesome. And then I'll read the comp and
it's like some crappy dude and I'm like, oh, like, so he's
pretty stingy, you know, with that stuff, man.
I can't find this thing. I wrote this up somewhere else,
but it was essentially looking for players that had this kind
of drastic delta between their production score and their film
score, like in the history of the supermodel and I, I put
together a list of examples, but sorry, bad, bad, bad job by me
on the show here. But the list was OK.
Like there were guys that were hits it, but it was obviously
we're we're getting later, you know, in the draft here.
So like if you look at Dylan Sampson hit rates for a top 36
finish based on his comps on the model, 53% of the time, 40% of
them went on to be running back twos, 20% top, 1213% were top 6
performers in their first three years.
His comps were DeAndre Swift, Devante Williams, Darius Geiss
and then Alvin Kamara. Nice.
So. Dang.
Oh, so those are actually the guys I know.
I had this here, so I wrote it. Sansa is an intriguing prospect
because it's difficult to find players with a film with a
strong film rating like this combined with such a lackluster
production rating. And so I listed the players
where it was at least 19 points apart between those two
components, and that was the list.
So these guys made it despite not having production, but they
he like hit huge in film. He's someone I probably wouldn't
have been as into a couple years ago, but I'm just like, he's
going to get drafted. Like he's and by drafted, I mean
I think he goes day two. I would be really surprised if
he fell past like early round 4. So he's in that range where it's
like he, you know, he he shows up this summer, plays well, He's
going to earn a role over the course of the season.
And there's guys I like where I'm like, I don't know, even
Tooting. I'm not and I'm not that.
List I gave you. Around 4:00 pick.
And even that list of comps I gave you, like the caveat is all
those guys had higher production ratings than Samson.
So while they're 19 point difference, like is the main
thing I was filtering on like DeAndre Swift, Javonte Williams,
Darius guys and Alvin Kamara were all more productive than
Dylan Samson in college, right? So this isn't like this perfect
one for one for kind of thing. But the point being is that we
have seen these players, right, that had that kind of delta and
and where it was more the grade was more reliant on film and
they they did come through. Well, Dwayne, if people want to
dig in further to the supermodel, obviously all up on
Fantasy Life, you guys got to see a peel back on the curtain
there. Some of those features are
paidwall, A paywall that you can get access to with a Fantasy
Life Premium subscription. But also the full set of
articles from Dwayne kind of breaking down these players is
also up on the site. You can search for that or go to
Dwayne's author page to find those.
But anything else that people should keep an eye out for
Dwayne here in the coming years? Yeah.
Yeah, they can check out the articles.
They're all free. We also did full, full shows me
and Ian Harditz and did some with Thor where we covered each
group like and we walked through everything.
So some players maybe we didn't cover today.
But I would say for the draft right now we're switching
towards like we're about to be in the draft.
So what's going to happen is as the drafts unfolding, I'll be
basically like, you know, the ship chasing bitch and I'll be
in the background like updating like these people's actual draft
capital so that it'll update on the site and so that people will
have that live information. The other thing that we'll be
hitting really quickly, as soon as the draft is done, I'll be
writing up my rookie ranks on Sunday, that'll be published on
Monday. And obviously the supermodel
will be a huge part of that. So all the changes in the
supermodel based on draft capital and stuff like that, if
you're waiting for like written word and that article will not
be paywalled, it'll be free. So those things will be coming.
Awesome looking forward to that make sure you guys check out the
Thor 500 as well. You know we got to about 14
players today. So if you're looking for, you
know, 486 more, you're. Good you guys are looking for
something to help you do content like.
Thor can help you. Go for a long time.
Yeah, go find out how how generous Thor is with his player
comps compared to Xerline there. Pat, what do you got going on,
on Leg Up? I had the first part of my
rookie wide receiver stuff out earlier this week.
I'm going to have the rest of the rookie wide receivers out at
the end of the week. And then yeah, got best ball
dynasty rankings, all that good stuff.
We'll be updating very quickly after the draft as well.
I'll I'll be I'll be plugging in draft position as as we go as
well. And so, yeah, check it all out
legendaryepisode.com. Oh, I'm going to do a think a
pod tomorrow with Ron as well. So look for that.
Very good Davis, what about you other than checking out Josh
Bombs on YouTube? The road to 250,000, all 150.
It's done tomorrow, going to go live at 9.
I'll do one big board by myself. Corrine's going to join me at 10
Central, which is 8:00 AM his time.
We're going to do the last two. Hopefully he's.
Going to join you at 10 O3 Central.
He's going to join me. He's going to join me at ten O
3. But yeah, I've.
I'll let you make the first round pick and then I'll.
Yeah, I will. I will have streamed 153 because
three got cancelled. So you know above, above and
beyond Peter. That's very impressive, I have
to say. That's.
Yeah, I ran. Really, Peter?
I didn't have a student cancelled draft Wow when I
streamed them all. Is this a new record for getting
150 drafts done in a period of time though?
Are you in world records at this point?
Oh it it would have to because mine's banned the entire I.
Think you need to submit this. Yeah, I did it.
I did it in like 3 months. Honestly, it was a bad idea.
I've gained about about 300 YouTube subscribers the entire
time. It was a massive waste of time.
I think we. Learned a lesson in every
streamer who has has accomplished the 1:50 that not
one of us has said it was a good idea when we were done with it.
Has anyone noticed that? And then you guys do it again.
Well, it will be a good idea to be streaming every day during
peak drafting season, but the and.
That's not March, to be clear, is that?
It's not March the the much better thing for me to have done
would have been to go really hard on dynasty stuff would have
been it would have been a really good idea to like make videos
and like like learn some editing type stuff.
Didn't do any of that to be the promo.
Not like you lay down on the psychologist's couch.
Here. But what if I win Peter?
But what if I win? Yes, then that will that will be
that will be a banger. That's the white whale.
The winning lineup streamed for sure.
So for ship chasing, obviously ADP chasing on Tuesday, a week
from today is the NFL draft. So we won't have our normal show
at 3:00 PM. We will be flexing to the
evening slot, 8:00 PM kick off. Already starting to book some
guests. I can tell you some of them now.
We got David Kitchen joining for the Titans pick.
We got Cooter Doodle from Fantasy Life joining for the
Saints pick. We got Ron joining for The Jets.
We got show up, of course with the Bills later and then we're
going to be mixing in. I should be able to make it for
the Chiefs pick. We we have to go do this thing.
I should be home by 9:00, so I I should be able to be there for
the Chiefs pick. Beautiful.
Pete, I'm just saying I, I, I could do Cowboys.
You wanna do Cowboys? I'll do cowboy there.
You go all. Right.
Wow. Matthew Golden at 12.
Dwayne is committed. Yeah, I'm just gonna sit
somberly, you know, in my chair and not say anything.
Who do you want? To join well.
We're going to make you screen share going into the model and
changing the golden from 20 to 12.
All right. Yeah, it'll be tantalizing.
We'll just watch viewers drop off.
No, no, no, they'll increase. The only other show for me
Saturday night on my channel I'm doing After Dark with Sean
Siegel. I have not had a chance to do a
show with Sean for a long time and normally only drafting
talking ball with him. So excited to peel back the
curtain, learn a little bit more about Sean outside of the
fantasy gridiron. So if you're a YouTube member on
my channel, you can check that out.
Otherwise, we'll see you guys next time here on the channel.
That'll be ADP chasing on Tuesday.
Thanks again to Dwayne. Check out all the work over at
Fantasy Life. So much good stuff over there.
We'll see you guys next time. Peace.