We are now. Just a month away from the NFL
season and we spent the past weeks.
Drinking from the fire hose of training camp News, There's
nobody in the industry. Better to help us separate the
signal from the noise than Rotor World's Pat Doherty.
Let's find out whether you should be buying the dip.
Or the rise on the biggest market movers in the fantasy
football landscape. This is ADP chasing.
Let's go, Pat Fryer helmos. This is This is why I'm hot.
Anita Hand job, fix your side. Jamar.
Elfo play Chase. You can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finding this voice.
You're right. Welcome everybody to the first
August edition of ADP Chasing. We started this back in
February. I think we started way too
early, but anyways, we're joined today.
Normal crew except we got Gretsch here. 7 in for Davis and
also joined by Roto Pat of Roto World Pat.
How's your August been going? You've been grinding, athletic
articles. How's your sort of training camp
news reading going? It's.
Been going well, but my life has been forever changed since the
Colt McCoy pointing thing. That's kind of changed things
around here that never had a podcast.
The bigger reaction that we got? To Johnny Venerable kind of
blowing. Tell the story again, just in
case there's someone hasn't heard and everyone wants to hear
it again, even if they have. Cardinals are doing reps with
Colt McCoy. You know they're starting
quarterback, but he doesn't throw.
He points, so he drops back when someone's open.
He points at them and that's where he would have thrown the
30 yard completion were he able to throw.
We're the starting quarterback able to throw, yeah.
The football. The crazy thing is I, like,
reposted one of those clips to Twitter and I got people, like,
angry at my mentions being like, this is completely normal.
That, like, the first team quarterback is just pointing at
people. Clearly, you clearly you've
never watched a football practice before and I'm like.
I I don't think it's normal at all.
Like what it's like, what do you wanna find?
I'm gonna go in your, I'm gonna go into your replies and just
quote, retweet some of those guys and goes, this guy knows
ball. Yes, Sam, I saw you tweet
correctly that there are apocalyptic vibes emanating out
of Arizona Cardinals training camp.
Yeah, not just. That's everything.
Yeah. Yeah.
Everything from Cardinals camp too.
It's like the camera angles are really weird.
It's like super, like zoomed out, like just yeah, well then
they're. Practicing everything about it
is just. Yeah, and they're like
practicing on their real field, which just makes it feel weird,
like they're just in their stadium since it's 129 degrees
in Phoenix, so they can't practice anywhere then.
They weren't even using the the practice.
Field they might be for some things, but one of the infamous
pointing clips was in the actual stadium.
So yeah, just. Just to having a Cardinals
having a normal one. Well, Gretch, welcome back to
ADP Chasing. I think it's been a while since
you've been on. How was your weekend?
I heard you drove down to Oregon, get some more drafts in,
is that right? Yeah, that's correct.
Weekend was good. Busy.
It's that time of year. A lot of writing over on the CN
Signals newsletter. I can't.
You know, I can't do the Davis voice.
I don't have the wig like like Pete does.
But I'm glad I've always wanted to sum up for Davis.
It just feels, feels great. I'm gonna bring some hot tanks
today. Well, yeah, We'll be talking
about plenty of Chiefs players, so you'll get a chance to
channel your your inner Davis Matic.
Let's just dive into it, guys. We have a lot of camp news to
discuss. I think compared to normal
shows, we're gonna be focused just on risers and fallers.
On this show. So what we're going to do is
sort of talk about the biggest risers and followers and then
walk through the camp news that sort of or whatever the new
cycle is, that's sort of causing these players either rise or
fall in a DP. So the first one that jumps out
here, Jalen Hyatt, is the biggest riser by percentage
change in a DP and raw change in a DP over the past week.
He was going, you know, sort of almost undrafted pick 202.
Has risen 2 rounds in last week, so that's a pretty big rise up
to pick 179. What's basically caused this?
I think a couple things. One, just camp highlights.
Jalen Hyatt, obviously super fast, he looks good playing in
shorts, sprinting down the football field.
And two, he is getting some first team reps with the Giants
in practice, which is interesting.
Start with you, Rhoda Pat. Curious what your thoughts are
on the Giants wide receivers core and Jalen Hyatt as well.
Wasn't Hyatt? Isn't a lot of this been with
Tyra, Tyrod Taylor, actually, he's going by Tyrod again.
Isn't a lot of this like with Tyrod Taylor?
Was kind of my first thought. I think some of the crane, some
of the like the gifts I've seen, like a Tyrod hitting Jalen Hyatt
for another bomb. As Daniel Jones talks to the
press corps about, he's going to throw even shallower in
2022-2023, whatever year it is. And that was my first
impression. I feel like every time we see a
tweet about Jalen Hyatt, it's also in reference to Tyrod
Taylor. Or is that my imagination?
I think that was true for a time because the reports out of mini
camp and stuff was that he was with the third team offense and
then we had the narrative with you know these they ball kind of
move is to bring rookies along slowly and you know Slaton and
him seem like very kind of overlapping in their skill sets
and Slaton is sort of a trusted. You know, veteran.
And so it's just like seemed like he was going to get brought
along slowly. But today I was actually reading
in the athletic quote from this article.
It says Hyatt has proved fast to be fast at everything, including
moving up the depth chart. Hyatt, who spent time during the
break before camp working with quarterback Daniel Jones, earned
more reps with the starters after repeatedly burning the
second team defense for long touchdowns.
The big play ability continued with the starters as Jones and
Hyatt connected for two deep touchdowns in Thursday's
practice. So.
I feel like this is starting to be like a genuine drum beat,
like a dude. They kind of intended to bring
along slowly and he's sort of speeding up their plans a little
bit. I would say he's still probably
a late season bet, but the odds of him coming on down the
stretch appear to be getting better.
I would be remiss if I didn't mention I believe Dove.
The man known as Dove circulated the clip of Daniel Jones hitting
him for a bomb over the weekend and I thought it was a bit of a
Tua type throw. Like, man, he really wound up
for a long time when that passed, like longer than you can
normally wind up in a real NFL game.
But did hit him for a deep bum where he was falling backwards.
And yeah, he has begun. I think his like overall reps to
the first team offense are still.
He's like ninth and first team reps or something, but he he is
getting first team reps. They're no longer to say ninth
among among wide receivers. I mean.
Exactly. You know, Sterling Shepard and
Cole Beasley and all those. I mean, I know they have a
million. Yeah, Gretch, I think I'm at
more 9th and targets with the first team offense, not 9th and
reps they do. Yeah, a lot of they.
I think that's actually close to, yeah, that's close to
accurate. I get there so.
There's still a slot. Sorry guys, I think something's
going on with my Wi-Fi, but. We can hear you fine.
Yeah, you seem normal. You've just.
Seen that? Freaking out over nothing.
To us okay, but. I was trying to make the joke
several times that you need one or two more slot receivers.
Yeah, they do. They definitely need some more
slot receivers. I'm I'm concerned about their
ability to. They're signing Jarvis Landry
any, any day. Jarvis Landry was spotted at
Newark. And this?
Is no joke. Julian Element.
Julian Element was spotted at the not a Joke So.
Come on, man. No, I'm not.
I'm actually not joking. Like, I think not as like a
tryout. But he was actually physically
there. He must be he he you know
tables. He was Daniels.
Sam, you might want to close and reopen Delay.
Yeah. You're delighted.
I'm going to leave and come back.
Yeah, you think Davis is on a delay all the time?
Dable. He wants some of that big Pat's
energy. Everyone forgets.
Not everyone forgets. A lot of people remember,
actually, that Brian Dable is a Pat's disciple, but he's most
recently, you know, of the Bills.
But hey, maybe. Maybe he's just behind on doing
the things that all horrible former Pat's assistants do.
Like, wow, Brian Dables, first year with the Giants actually
hired people that didn't work for Bill Belichick.
Now year two, he's like, all right, let's get in all the
Belichick people now. I think Dave all like we need to
get to the bottom of his disciple ship cuz is he a a
Belichick disciple or a Saban disciple?
I know it is confusing. It's admittedly I don't know
what the cannon is on that. We need to go to Bella Saban
Wiki. And like, really, really sort
through the mythology. There it's a Sabin disciple
because it's the success followed Sabin.
I think, I think he's considered a Belichick disciple, although I
think he's just Sabin all the way back like Michigan State,
like in the 90s. It's really, it's like a sordid
tail. I'm learning a lot about Brian
Davel. Yeah, yeah, so far.
It's a sordid tail. I believe he spent time with
Mangini. Okay, it is sorted.
There's a lot going on there with Brian Daybold.
We're playing. Remember some guys?
Gretch I'm curious how you curious how I what, Gretch,
curious how you're. This is a disaster.
There's something gone off my Wi-Fi.
I'm trying my best. You're like, look, how are you?
How are you approaching high rounds of drafts I haven't been
taking? I haven't taken a lot of him.
I've been avoiding the giants for the most part, just out of
this idea that I'm I'm quite a bit more narrow, I think with my
late round wide receivers than most drafters.
I'm not really just like mixing in guys to stack like I I feel
like, you know, you definitely want bring backs like if you're
doing like a RAM stack, but I don't think you have to have
them. I don't think any of the
research I've read is like you know you have to have them as a
precursor to win necessarily. And so like if it's not a great
bet then it's not a great bet. There's I think almost a
certainty that one of these Giants receivers is going to
beat ADP and everything you guys are saying about high, it's kind
of drum beat does have me a little excited.
Like I think going forward I will take a little bit more high
it, but for the most part to me it's been such a cloudy
situation that I haven't wanted to prioritize it.
I also haven't taken a ton of Daniel Jones, so that's maybe
part of it as well. So I I wrote an article that
came out last week on McKay. It was one of the guys I used as
an example. It's just like kind of a little
bit of like a tactic I thought was kind of interesting in these
week 17 type formats. You know that the best ball
mania type playoff contest where.
If you're taking Hyatt right, you're not necessarily even
betting on the Giants offense. Like if you're taking Slayton,
you're betting on the Giants offense to some degree because,
like Slayton, sort of a status quo bet on him maintaining
starter reps, You know, Daniel Jones is putting up a lot of
points early in the season. That's good for Slayton.
Hyatt can benefit from, like, chaos and, you know, the depth
chart just getting reshuffled. And so, like, the Giants don't
necessarily even need to have that great of a season.
You just are kind of betting on him and he is still priced.
Even though he's moving up, he's still priced is a late round
dark throw that you really just want to come on for the playoff
weeks. Those guys are pretty
interesting as bringbacks. Like if you're trying to get
more hired in, maybe try to get him in on Matthew Stafford.
Teams where you really are just betting on that Week 17 bring
back potential. If the Giants are a disaster
before the Rams pushed them in Week 17 who cares Yeah.
Which also gets to your to your point earlier that high could be
a good late season. I mean he's feels like if
there's a little bit of drum beat here feels to me like a
really nice one of those rookie late season bets we know rookie
score more later in the year so that's I I like that take a lot.
He's somebody I want to mix in One thing I do want to note, if
you know what, on on Pat's comment about Daniel Jones
basically saying he's gonna throw shorter.
I mean, I think one of the biggest.
He didn't really say that, by the way.
It's just OK. I was gonna say if you were
serious about it, cuz I could tell.
Yeah, and I'm sorry. And you would.
I would be someone to trust on that since I read the news all
day. He did not mean to mislead you
there, but I will. Even even if he hasn't said that
it's a valid. There's some truth to the joke
obviously. And it's a it's an interesting
point because I just you know you just mentioned I I had Sam
that that long drive to Oregon. I finished listening to Jordan
Rodrigues awesome playmakers series, five part series that
the athletic incredible. I mean I do think one of the
things we are missing as a fantasy industry is how the
defense is played in 2022 and then 2021 and how a docs came
down. You have Robert Sala, I think in
episode 4 or maybe Episode 5 of that series literally saying our
goal is to stop explosive plays. Like, he's straight up saying we
want you to matriculate the ball down the field, which is one of
the things that, you know, we speculated about.
I think in the fantasy industry. I know Sean and I talked about a
ton stealing bananas last year. Like that's the goal of these
defenses right now, this cover to Shell and the way that
they're doing things is to stop explosive plays and make you
beat them underneath. Jalen Hyatt and these types of
prospects for me are a little bit thinner bets as a result of
the atmosphere they're coming into in the 2020 to NFL or 2023
NFL over like a multi decade span.
Like we're coming into an era where defenses focus is to stop
explosives. This is an explosive play
receiver. So I'm like a little bit more
intrigued by like the upside profile of Wanda Robinson for
example. That's the giant that I have
taken on some bringbacks. I don't love him.
There's a lot of spots. I took Robinson a lot, but then
I was like. They're signaling like this dude
might not play this. Year They literally signed Cole
Beasley I. Mean.
Yeah. Once they signed Cole Beasley, I
was like, oh, Robinson might be a 2024 play.
Like that's. I'm starting to get pretty
nervous about the the injury and just how many, literally how
many slot receivers they have on the roster.
Like, sort of. It could be a signal, I think,
yeah. So maybe it's the Giants.
Isn't isn't the right way of making this point, but high it
in general. And just like there's there's
several other deep threats where like I kind of like the
profiles. But I'm reminding myself, like
these are the types of players and these are the they succeed
in the types of areas that NFL defenses are trying to take away
right now. And it's a copycat league and
all the defenses are doing. Yeah, the car was thrown in
reverse last year, Gretch. Like, it's not just anecdotal.
I mean, we know empirically from advanced stats, from just the
raw stats, the car was already kind of beginning to idle and
like the big play thing was like officially thrown in reverse
last year. And yeah, Jalen Hayek could be
like. An Mvs like cannon fodder type
guy, like your whole job is to absorb like fire field and
you're not gonna get the boss. Especially since Daniel Jones
now under back-to-back coaching Staffs 1A horrible coaching
staff and then one a very good coaching staff still just does
not like to throw deep. Even though he always grades out
well at doing it, he doesn't do it.
He doesn't like to do it. I think they cover two things
definitely like real, like it. Definitely there was an uptick
in Cover 2, but I. I I feel it.
I remember. I feel like I remember Kevin
Cole pushing back on just like how much more and like the.
I think it actually feels to me like it might be potentially
kind of an overblown thing. Well create it's also like it's
it's it's not like it's the most difficult coverage look to beat
like teams knew how to do it. They just teams.
They didn't have to do it that case.
Yeah, the only thing is I, I so I think like if you're the
Bengals, if you're looking at the Bengals and you're like.
I think Smith might see some dump off targets because they're
just going to then I I agree with that.
But with like teams like the Giants, like I think you know
Daniel Jones and Sake 1 Barkley are probably going to run
together a lot like that. You know they were using Daniel
Jones more as like a mobile quarterback and the trick with
like what tables going to be trying to do is get them out of
the cover too by running it and then take shots when they are
so. With a guy like Hyatt, right,
You're playing, defenses aren't getting out of it.
That's like we keep talking about this on fantasy pods, but
like defenses aren't rolling out of the cover, too.
They're staying in it. That's why we had teams run or
like throw at like record breakingly low levels or also
high levels last. Year the box I'm gonna have to
dig into this because like I I think that's happening to like
the Chiefs and stuff. But I don't think like you're
playing like, why would you, why would you play like, why would
you just be like? I can't let you know Daniel
Jones beat me deep when he's mobile or Justin Fields beat me
deep when he's mobile. Like these guys, they stacked it
like the Falcons faced a lot of stacked boxes last year cuz they
had Marcus Mariota, you know, like they weren't.
He wasn't seeing those Cover 2 shells the same way these other
guys are. By the way, the Giants, how many
receivers do you think they have on their 90 man roster right
now? You're allowed to carry 90
players during. Turning 12.
They do have 12. Sam is correct, 12.
That does not include Wandale, who's not on the active roster
since he's on the PUP list, and so they've got 13 if they've got
Wanda. Seems like a lot of players at
one position when you're allowed to be total players, yeah,
especially because Derek Waller's gonna split out some.
I know you haven't. You wouldn't gotta do that.
He's gonna split out point wide receiver.
They're saying that to you? You were.
You were mentioning that a while back, Gretch.
And I've. I've seen reports now.
That they do have sets with Bellinger tight end and Waller
moving around the formation. So like, on top of everything,
you have to deal with Darren Waller playing wide receiver,
which is the best wide receiver? Isn't even one of those 13 guys
like that? Was their big wide receiver
edition? Is it tight?
End Collin Johnson's also gotten some buzz.
Oh my gosh, they let their. Last thing I'll say.
And then let's move on to Justin.
Yeah. The last thing I'll say and then
move on to Justin Ross. Jalen Hyatt does have less
catches than a cold Beasley and Lebanon 11 team drills through
my practices, so that doesn't I do.
Seem like the DIPE is fully, fully justified, but I do kind
of get it for the late season break out.
I do want to circle back on that.
Too high. Let's talk.
Let's talk to Justin Ross. Oh yeah, real quick.
Nick makes a great point about the play callers.
Thing is that they're showing these two I looks.
They're rotating post snap. The defenses are doing more
adjustments after the snap, making quarterbacks read things.
That was the main point of play callers.
It's not as simple as, oh, they're not getting out of too
high. The whole point was that they're
not doing what they're showing you.
They're not as regulated, as Sean McVeigh called it in the
Play Callers series. They are less regulated.
They're moving around more. But my point is their philosophy
is to take away space, to take away explosives.
And that's, I mean, it's gonna impact the 2023 season in a
pretty big way. Before I know we have to move
on, but and I also know this show is like a we're in like the
heart of best ball territory. The crane.
It was still astonishing to hear you talking about stacking Jalen
Hyatt and Matthew Stafford. Genuinely astonishing.
And like with a total straight face.
Because it does make sense. That's why you're here.
But it was still astonishing. Well, sorry, Yeah.
Yeah, I guess what I'm going to try to dig in on the two High
thing a little bit more, Ben. But like my my big push back
there is just like, I have to imagine that, like teams are
scheming for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen pretty differently
than for some of these, like more mobile quarterbacks that
they're just not as afraid of. With the deep shot stuff and
they are more for their their legs.
They are, but I I don't think it's as simple.
I I wasn't trying to come down on you necessarily, but I've
heard that a lot where it's like, Oh yeah, because they're
mobile, they're going to get more one high looks, whatever.
And it's not that simple. I don't.
Think maybe not free snap because they're rotating.
Is that what you mean? Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, I mean, maybe that's it.
Maybe because of rotations and stuff, it probably does open up
the downfield passing to have a mobile QB to some degree, but I
don't think it's it's going to be as simple as that.
Anyway, we should move on to to the Chief Sam's.
Same station to get some Justin Ross talking.
Yeah, I mean, we normally spend 45 minutes in the Giants wide
receiver room, so it's good to. Let's talk about another team
that has seemingly 12 wide receivers that are all getting
hypen camp, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Justin Ross is up around and a half, up 8% in a DP.
He is now getting drafted in almost every single underdog
draft. In around the 16th or 17th round
right now, this again, it's kind of a similar story to Hyatt.
There's word he's getting reps with the first team, not
necessarily a starter with the first team, but is getting reps
from the first team. And the Chiefs Twitter account
is just relentless in sending us these Justin Ross highlights.
I don't know if the guy who manages this has some Justin
Ross Dynasty shares he's trying to offload, but man, the the
Justin Ross hype from Kansas City's main account is just.
Absurd. So I don't know.
I'm curious, I guess, starting with you, Pat.
What are your thoughts on Justin Ross?
Do you think this is legitimate or are we just getting bored at
this point in the off season? So I'm gonna assume you meant
this. Pat.
Me and I will start talking and. Yeah, you're Pat for this
episode. Notice I've noticed some of the
highlights now do feature pads being worn, so that's good.
And it is interesting. It's veering into drum beat
territory because it's Chiefs media, it's been some teammates,
It's been the big Kahuna himself, Patrick Mahomes.
I mean this was always the the thesis of the Justin Ross play,
was it not for the Chiefs and fantasy managers, It wasn't
going to be like a one year thing.
He had the red shirt and he was always like when we talked about
Justin Ross. Last year was like 2023 and we
know when that usually happens. We just like never hear from the
player again like the like the next year, like they're just out
of the league. But Justin Ross is actually
living up to the thesis of the play and his he's doing step
one, which is to create lots of training camp content.
A lot of people never move on to Step 2.
But as much as I want to joke about it and like, not get
excited about it, like he he's checking the you can't like poke
a hole in the argument so far like he's doing as of August
7th, he's doing everything he needs to do through the 1st 10
days of training camp. It's like maybe actually become
a thing. The guy that was this player in
Chiefs camp at this time last year was Isaiah Pacheco and
there was a lot of smoke behind or a lot of fire behind that
smoke. So I mean, it is interesting to
hear this type of buzz from a team that gave us the same type
of buzz from a no name. They're not.
No name but a less heralded player last year and then
followed through on that. Gretch, I just got a really
Galaxy bringing idea while you were talking.
And I I'm gonna share like I'm gonna share this take like like
I actually do maybe believe this.
That maybe the Chiefs, since they're just so good 22 Super
Bowls, went in the past for you. Maybe they just, they don't care
about cloak and dagger training camp stuff anymore.
You know, like a lot of teams would try to confuse the issue
like, oh, Justin Ross, yeah, that means playing.
Yeah, he's on the field, but like, I doesn't mean anything
like, like, you know, the coaching staff.
But I do everything to downplay it.
They did everything to up the up play Isaiah Pacheco last year.
And yeah, maybe the Chiefs are, like, so confident, Like they
don't think they've like, try to keep Justin Ross a secret or try
to keep that kind of, like freely hyping Justin Ross.
Yeah, or maybe it's like they want to build us.
Confidence is like a bigger priority than like keeping it a
secret. Because who cares?
We have Patrick from Holmes. We don't care who's playing
exactly like. I've also yeah, I've tried to
figure out new ways to bury MBS every episode.
And so this this time, last time I was on a podcast with Pat, I
cited Open Score using all the wide receivers going back to
2017. I'll mix it up this year and
include this this episode include the tight ends going
back to to 2017. So Open Score, ESPN's player
tracking metric, has 648 wide receiver and tight end seasons
going back to 2017 MB S Last year was ranked 620th of those
648 seasons in open score last year.
And there's also the yards after catch stuff that's that's
horrendous for him. Out of those 600, it's actually
649. There's a tie for 6:48, so 649
seasons. MBS was 600 and 38th in yards
after catch per the player tracking data.
So if you're not getting open, you're not doing stuff after the
catch it. Might be bad.
We're talking about Ross. Why does that be?
Like, was anyone making a game for MBS?
Because I think Ross's path goes directly through MBS.
He is MBS is like seen as this. Well, hey, he's going to get out
there. He's going to be running the
routes like maybe not like I think if you're taking MBS.
I would be reconsidering it right now with this Ross site
because Ross is a taller outside wide receiver.
Maybe he's taking stuff from Justin Ross to begin with.
But like if Tony gets back at some point this year and can
actually play, then he would be playing over Justin Watson as
well. And they're either running
probably Sky Moore or Richie James out of the slot.
So if Ross is out there and Tony's out there, MBS is gonna
be. I mean, by the way, MBS was
rotating off last year as well. He didn't have like a locked in
route rate even last year. So I don't know.
This raw stuff, at the very least is making me extremely.
No one did MBS. No one did, right.
Like as you're saying that I was thinking through last year, they
rotated a lot and they they'll probably will again this year.
But I I like that. Take that MBS, he wound up
running the most routes in this passing game last year other
than Kelsey and that could come if that could not happen this
year, he could be like third or something.
He could come down pretty easily, yeah.
Yeah the the numbers too. Like what I'm wondering with
Ross is you know he's getting all this hype but I I still
think there is a question if he makes the roster right?
Cuz assuming let's assume for a second that Tony is healthy
enough to be on the roster week one, which maybe isn't a fair
assumption but just go with me for a second.
Then if you say Tony's locked into a roster spot, you say you
know Rashi, Rice, Sky, Moore, obviously second round picks the
last few years, they're locked into roster spots You have.
Justin Watson and Mvs both making guaranteed money locked
into roster spots. Then it starts just to get
tough. Like typically teams only will
cover or will only carry 6 wide receivers on an active roster
and maybe have 5 active for game days.
So the thing with Ross is I'm just like who who loses out and
doesn't make the roster. If he does, it could be Tony's
just injured and they stash Tony on IR and that's sort of how
they do it, but. Yeah, I think that's right.
That's the kind of move that they will make.
They won't cut Ross, not after this type of hype and this and
and his career and the ways Pat, you could talk to this way
better than me. But the Chiefs and the way Andy
Reid does stuff like he loves like these positive stories,
right? Like he kind of falls in love
with them a little bit, right? No.
Yeah, he kind of does. It is interesting from both you
though like Sam is right, but I mean it could be like a surprise
cut. I mean, we didn't even mention
Richie James. Right.
Maybe Justin Watson. Even though they love him, like
the staff loves him. Mahome seems to love him.
He hasn't only been with the team like one year.
Maybe he's been with the team two years.
I can't remember. What are the practice squad
rules now? Cuz could they just stash him
there like no one's taken him? Who?
Justin Watson? Yeah, yeah, they probably could.
Yeah, Richie James even can. Maybe if you wait till late
enough in camp to, like, cut him, they can maybe even stash
him on the practice squad. Because me, he's like 27.
Yeah, you got no money. Yeah, he's kind of become a
journey, man. But it is weird, which is also,
this is like a little Justin Ross negative.
There's been a hype for a lot of random chiefs, like not as much
for Richie James and Justin Watson, but they love Justin
Watson. What he brings, it's always
stuff there's nothing to do with like being on the field, what he
brings to the whiteboard. Really good friends in Mahomes
and they never mentioned it all, like he's getting open all the
time or something like that. But yeah, there's going to be,
by definition, by necessity, like a surprising cut in the
Chiefs receiver. Course well or I mean, yes,
there might be one. But I like what Rohing's saying
here, too. To apologize if I got the name
wrong, but Chiefs beat reporter projected Tony starting on IR.
As you were talking through this and as you were doing that, Sam,
I was like, oh, Tony's definitely not starting on the
active roster. They're gonna stash him.
They're gonna say they need time.
They need him to get back to 100%.
Whether it's Pep or whatever they do, they're gonna stash
him. Well, they got a little screwed
because he he didn't start camp on the PUP list.
So like, putting him on the PUP would have been by far the best
IR. I guess the IR rules are pretty
liberal at this point though, so he there's probably a pretty
good chance he starts an IR. It used to be more punitive if
you wanted to start an IR and now it doesn't really matter.
So almost no chance he's on the act of roster week one.
You're right, Gretch. Yeah, and finally Sam's right
about MBS is guaranteed money. They they can't move on from
him. Somehow he has a $10.5 million
cap hit this year, which is just absurd.
Yeah, they can't really move. I do think he can phased out on
MBS like. I kind of agree with you Pat,
that I think a lot of people are touting Mvs.
It's like his role is locked and he's so safe.
Yes, he did run a lot of routes last year, but I made this point
last week in the podcast. You look at week 10 on Justin
Watson actually out snapped Mvs from week 10 on last year, not
in terms of routes but in terms of snaps.
So that's just a sign to me that like, hey, maybe maybe Justin
Ross and Justin Watson actually could both pass Mvs and then
it's kind of just like. You know what, What do you do
here on this roster? MBS, you can become much more of
a rotational sort of 2030% route rate deep threat first last year
where he was more like 6070%, like I think his role could be
cut in half. I wouldn't be surprised at all
the young players passing in there.
One more note on his contract cuz I knew they could have moved
on after the last year. It says over on Over the Cap if
on the roster on the third day of 2023 league year, 6.44
million will be fully guaranteed so.
They made a decision this year to keep him this offseason for
six and a half million more guaranteed.
That's why he's owed 10,000,010 and a half million.
Six and a half million of that was a decision made this year.
So interesting. I I'll know what the route rate
stuff he was at 76% last year, which isn't very good for a wide
receiver. Marvin Jones was at 76% last
year for example, you know kind of a part time like.
So it's just like if he goes much further down.
So yeah, he's not gonna get, like, fully benched.
He's not gonna get cut. They clearly like, see, hit he,
you know, but he's probably Jalen Guidant, you.
Know he's not good. Yeah.
No, he's just there to stretch. He's never averaged more than
five targets per game in a in a season in his career, never did
in Green Bay, and he didn't last year with the Chiefs.
He's not actually like a 12. Well, he's never, he's never
played with a good quarterback, so.
Yeah, only all three. Quarterbacks for this guy.
Well, if there was that one chat, someone get Mvs a
quarterback, yeah. I've pushed back on the two high
stuff in some aspects, but I think like in this case like
that he's a sacrifice to the two high guys.
Just like, yeah, just run deep and take a guy with you and then
we'll do something else. Let's move on here talking about
Marvin Mims, maybe a guy we're a little bit more excited about
than Hyatt or Ross. We'll see.
He's up, obviously, on the kind of sad Patrick and Handler
injuries. You gotta really feel for both
those guys. They've had terrible luck with
injuries throughout their whole career.
That does open up a crazy opportunity for him at wide
receiver. 3I cited myself here in this picture, but you look at
the competition for three wide receiver sets in Denver,
assuming that Judy and Sutton are locked in as the starting
wide receivers. He's competing with Marquez,
Callaway, Montreal, Washington, Kendall Hinton, Little, Jordan,
Humphrey. It's basically Sean Payton this.
Is amazing that you bothered business doubt like Michael
Bandy and. Taylor Well, I couldn't figure
out like, how to rank these flick.
How do you rank these players? I was.
Like my favorite My favorite thing about doing the Broncos
projections this year and looking at their depth chart and
some of these names is. Sean Payton brought over three
of his top 6 receivers in receiving yardage from his final
year with the Saints, including Marcus Callaway led that team
with 698 yards, yes, and one of his reserve running backs and
Tony Jones Jr. right over Marcus Callaway, Little Jordan Humphrey
and Adam Chautman. And Tony Jones, Junior.
All these just random players. Tony Jones was so bad for the
Seahawks last year, they used another day two pick on a
running back. Like that's how starred they
were by the Tony Jones experience.
Last year, I just love Peyton's. Like, I want all these crappy
players from my 2021 team That wasn't good enough that I quit.
Well, you put it that way. Yeah.
But I mean, it seems like there's.
I mean, at least by the end of the year, I don't see any way
that Mims doesn't at least have a shot to run routes.
I mean, it'd be crazy if they didn't give him a chance over
Callaway or a little Jordan Humphrey.
So I'm pretty excited about him. Where he goes in best ball now,
I guess start with you, Gretch. Pick 150 ish.
That's his range. Do you think he's a exciting
pick there? Did you say me sorry, I cough.
Yeah, yeah, Grouch, yeah. Yeah, I I do.
I think he's one of the best double digit upside.
Late season rookie wide receiver plays right.
Like there's not a ton of profiles in the double digit
rounds that we think at wide receiver have a ton of upside.
That's what we talk about. Like the wide receiver window
and wide receiver heavy early in drafts and a lot of those
philosophies. Mims is a legitimate double
digit round upside profile that could be.
Late in the season somebody who's really hitting.
If Payton gets this thing turned around if Russell Wilson's a
little bit better. There's some concerns in
Cortland Sutton's profile. I've still drafted some Sutton
but like there are paths to Cortland Sutton not being great
this year or being sacrificed the two high gods right.
And then it's Judy and and maybe Mims who is a good deep threat
as well and could be the guy who sacrificed the two I gods.
But maybe he winds up doing more in the intermediate range.
I mean there's like we don't know what ton of how Payton's
gonna use these guys. He used to rotate receivers a
lot in the with the sink, so there are some, you know, some
concerns here as well, but. To your point into your tweet,
the competition is not stiff. He has a really good profile.
He's a really easy, I think, double digit upside wide
receiver. Profile is the way that I put
it. The thing that concerns me with
Mims so far, though, is all the hype is still from us.
Like it hasn't been from the coaching staff, hasn't really
been from the Broncos media. Injured rookies get treated like
very punitively and I know he's finally back.
But they are never happy. When, like a rookie misses like
the first seven or eight days, it usually puts you like, back,
like considerably far. He is at least a Peyton draft
pick, so that's really good. So he is.
So Peyton brought all these guys over.
He's remembering like one guy after another.
He did at least draft Marvin men, so he's at least a Peyton
guy. I'd be much more concerned if
he, like, was like a second year guy and wasn't Peyton's guy.
And like Sam was saying like, he's going to have to play.
I mean like almost is going to have to play, but I'm just
afraid it could be like a challenge accepted type
situation where like Sean Payton likes Marcus Callaway far, far
more than the fantasy football community does.
And but again you guys, you focus on late season a lot as
you should and almost impossible to see.
Marvin Men's not being like at least a staple in three receiver
sets by the end of, and probably much sooner, and maybe even in
some two wide looks. But I have all the hype so far.
Has not been from the people who matter.
Yeah, from people like us. I'll vouch for that because I
tried hard to dig up some Marvin Mims like camp clips or like
anything else to put on this slide to say like, oh, Marvin
Mims is doing great in camp. There's nothing.
I think a lot of that is cuz he has been injured but he's been
back practicing all of last week and it's just like radio silence
on the Marvin Mims Beat report, which could be nothing could
mean something. I, you know, I still like
betting on him. The one thing I'll add with the
Broncos, like, I think mems that pick 150, I'm totally in.
If he rises, I've heard people talking about, you know, he
should rise to the 120 range. I think there I get pretty
nervous, like back in 2021, you know, thinking about how Sean
Payton wants to run this offense.
The Saints ran 11 personnel SO3 wide receiver sets at the
seventh lowest rate in the entire NFL back then.
You know, they have Dulcich as a starting tight end.
They traded it for Adam Troutman.
They also gave Chris, Man hurts a guy.
No one talks about fantasy, but they gave him 3 million
guaranteed. He's like, you know, a 3040%
rotational snap player for the Jags last year as a blocker.
I think they're gonna run like a lot of two tight end sets in
Denver. I think Sean Payton wants to run
the ball and like, I'm not sure chasing, you know, the third
wide receiver on the Broncos is like.
This incredible bet. I think it's certainly good
where he goes now, but I'm a little wary of like, man, I just
don't know about betting on Denver's passing game for the
auxiliary options in the 10th or 11th round.
If he rises that high, it's good to so yeah.
Yeah, I mean, he's my, I think he's my most drafted wide
receiver to date. Yeah, he is.
He's my third most drafted player.
I mean, you look worried as you're saying that.
No, I mean, obviously. You know, a lot of this came at
at lower prices, so I'm happy to take him.
You mentioned him moving up that far.
I think that's definitely possible, but I've been kind of
shocked by how little he's moved so far that in the last week or
so I thought I would be seeing him, you know, in the in the one
40s and stuff and he he'll get sniped.
For me if I try to push him. He goes in the one 40s because
I'm now taking him in the one 40s because I'm sick of getting
sniped at like 149 or 150. But I am also sometimes just
seeing him when I'm on the clock.
I wasn't even planning to take him still in that kind of like
160 Midrank you know around there.
And I I guess I've just a little bit surprised he hasn't moved up
quicker. Maybe it is that people expect
him and seeing the fields in a rotational role because because
they do run some 12, I think they will.
But it's probably what Sam said too.
The height just hasn't been out there yet.
Yeah, from the media, just because he's barely he, he must
just be like getting up to speed basically.
And so it's been a trap in the past, like a rookie gets injured
early in camp, falls behind, there's no hype and then people
just like fall asleep on them and then they are.
Yeah, well there's yeah, there's been a lot of Odell Beckham type
situations. But it is also, I feel like
those are still the exceptions where like when a rookie starts
hurt like the year, even if it's like for only only a week or two
of camp, like a lot of times they're like way more buried
than we would like on the early season depth chart.
I wonder what the SO3 wide stuff like.
I kind of agree that they'll probably run a lot of 12, but I
also wonder if, like what Peyton was doing at the end of his
Saints tenure. I mean, they ran out of wide
receivers, like they just didn't have anybody.
That's true. I mean, you know, they like
Lance Moore used to be like a pretty dynamic fantasy wide
receiver and he was a slot guy. You know, they've had a history
of slot receiver production under Peyton.
So I yeah, I don't know. We'll have to see.
I do think they'll probably be taking Russ back to some of that
Seattle stuff and trying to pound the rock and like they got
to unlock the moon ball. You know that that is a team
that needs to be hitting explosives deep because Russ
isn't going to be, like matriculating the ball downfield
like they know. That's what the run game's for,
I think. Yeah, yeah, I yeah, that makes
sense. And just one thing to add on, on
Pat's point that like the trap of projecting the rookie into
volume right away like. Not to say that this is Jalen
Tolbert, but this is the same thing with Jalen Tolbert last
year. We're like, there's no like
Jalen Tolbert has an easy path to playing, like there's no way
he's gonna play behind Dennis Houston and Noah Brown.
What do you have? Yeah.
There's no way to sign up to Y Hilton in Week 16 and play him
over daily, right? Yeah, that's that's a good
point. They did so just not to say
about him, Nims, but like I do wanna, like I kinda wanna see it
in the preseason a little bit. I wanna like see it in the
reporting like a little bit before I.
You know, I would be willing to chase them.
I think like higher if like we just get a little bit more
backing that like he is actually looking good and we're not just
you know, projecting. I think he's just a strong pick
where he's still going like I want, yeah.
I agree with that. You know, you know that I'm
taking like Van Jefferson's at 1:40, Michael Gallops at 137.
He was pretty bad last year. Maybe you know what we're like.
Hopefully he's better the second year off in ACL tear, even
though he has to deal with Brandon Cook's like like I'll
take him over him. You know it's really until if
you get to like Darnell Mooney or Jacoby Myers or Zay Jones or
Romeo Dobbs, Alan Lazar. Like I could still talk myself
in him over all those guys. But at least there you're like
these dudes are running routes and you know they they probably
are giving you a couple spike weeks, but it's until he's up
there, I think he's pretty strong pick.
I agree. Let's let's move to talking Zay
Flowers. Continuing the the rookie wide
receiver trend here on the show, Zay Flowers is up five spots
from pick 88 to pick 83, so he's going late 7th now pretty
consistently. I think a lot of teams with
Lamar Jackson at the 3-4 turn are taking Flowers there.
He's up. I think mostly just cuz
Bateman's been missing and that's led to reports that
Flowers is kind of firmly a starter in two wide receiver
sets. I would note the reports aren't
saying that like he's ahead of Bateman.
The reports are mostly just saying because Bateman's not
here right now. Flowers looks like the starter.
I think that's kind of an important they're also saying
he. Looks awesome.
They are saying he looks awesome too.
Yeah. So he's up because of that.
I I. Kind of think I made a mistake.
I was, you know, Bateman over flowers for most of the draft
season. I was kind of ignoring the
Bateman injury, I think a little bit too much.
So I. Wish I wish I had more flowers
at this point, but I'm kind of buying where he goes and drafts
Rotopat. What are your what are your
thoughts and flowers? You excited about him?
Well, my thoughts and flowers are like very Bateman based
where like they're trying to project positivity on Bateman,
but it's still like it's gonna be out there soon.
Like you can you can. Like you can feel it like it's
gonna be soon. I I just know it.
And that is kind of, I felt like the tenor of the Bateman
comments and you know just how is he not practicing still like
it is like kind of shocking and is it he had OK so he got he had
a issue with this foot where they had to remove one of the
screws from this surgery and then he got a cortisone shot for
for the discomfort which. Is I just mean like how I wasn't
debating. Of course he's not practicing
after that, but. You know how is it after how
little he played last year and it's August 7th, like he's still
like, you know getting shots and like getting screws removed and
that well the the shot. I don't think he's still getting
shots. I think he's the right.
When you get, as far as I understand it like he there's
not like when you get the screw removed, right.
That's potentially leading to additional instability or
potential for swelling or whatever.
So like they're resting him right now, like, you know, rest,
rest away, rest away. Rest away.
But it's a new this isn't Greg Roman anymore.
It's not it. So it's not a whole new coaching
staff offense. It's a new offensive staff and
anybody who like. And two, it's a really bad setup
for him because it's the new staff.
And with the new staff at the shiny new toy and say Flowers,
who is hitting the ground running and is like creating
gifts every day in Ravens camp where it's kind of like a
perfect storm of like negative Rashad Bateman hype, I feel
like. And there's not going to be a
lot of loyalty. From the Todd Monken staff to
Rashad Bateman again, it's August 7th and they're still
basically saying that he's a week away.
Kind of like it's like an Elon Musk like update to like the
like, yeah, next week I'm honestly.
Cyber trucks are going to be shipped out.
Next week for sure, yeah. They're gone.
Yeah, sorry. I'm honestly fine with it.
Like, because it's coming with a discount on Bateman.
I know we're talking flowers here, but just on the Bateman
side, like he's falling into the ninth round now.
Like, cool. Like I'm in, I'm still in.
I I I also want to be in on flowers though.
I I tried like I was Bateman over Flowers for a while and
then I kind of flipped that because the ADP insisted that I
do so and I was making a point to try to stack Flowers and
Bateman with Lamar. That's kind of how I talk myself
into flowers cuz I feel honest to God.
Like, I think if you just take a guy 12 times, like you'll start
taking him on his own like he did.
Or maybe the number's even lower might be like 7, but like once
you take a guy a certain amount of times, you're.
Like it's 12 for bad cuz he's doing 7 million drafts.
Yeah, it might be 12 for me, it might be 3 for a normal person.
But there is seriously, there's something of like just click the
guy's name. If you think you do it, just do
it. Do it a few times and then
you're like this. This is a good pick now cuz I've
done it so it's like. Smoking.
It's. Like smoking one cigarette, you
know it is so like I got a taste for ze flowers that I dropped.
This is a good pick now because I've done it.
That's seriously how your brain
works. It is.
That's like a really, like, fascinating, like insight into,
like human psychology. Yeah, for sure.
I'm now pretty much even with the feel I can think of blares
that this is true on. Like, I wasn't taking, you guys
were talking about it recently on the show, but I wasn't taking
a lot of Ridley and I started taking some Ridley and now I'm.
Yeah, I'll considerately the third round.
I'm OK, yeah, because he's a good pick because you've taken
him before. Yeah, like that.
I mean, yeah, I've got it. I I was sorry Kerrain on on
liking the Bateman discount When I did my projections for the
Ravens, I felt, well, first of all, Bateman only 120 routes
last year but took a step forward with the like.
Yards. Power on targets, Power run.
But his a dot be playing football.
Sorry. Correct, right.
No, fair he didn't. But his seven routes, yeah, his
A dot also rose substantially. From year one it was 9.6, which
is below averaging year one it was 13.2 in year 2.
Again, only 120 routes, but I I'd have this depth adjusted
racer metric that I use for my efficiency stuff and my
projections racer being. The air conversion ratio you're
taking air yards and turning into receiving yards instead of
like yards per target. It's you know yards per air yard
basically and Bateman but I depth adjusted because it's
different at different a dots. Bateman was efficient at the
lower A dot as a rookie in terms of his after the target
efficiency to turn a ton targets targets per out run wasn't great
as a rookie but his yards per target which wasn't great was
better when you put it in the context of the lower a dot is
what I'm trying to say. And then it was also good in
year two at a higher A dot, so he was efficient after earning
targets. At a lower a dot role and in a
higher a dot role. I like seeing that in receivers
over multiple years where this guy can probably win at multiple
layers and multiple depths. We know he was a really good and
really productive college player and had a really good, you know,
prospect profile. In that regard.
I think he's a good football player.
And so yeah, there's concerns right now in camp and in the big
picture, he's not healthy and all those things.
Sorry, in like the smaller picture, but in the big picture,
I think he's good and I want it. I want to still be on him, like
Pat was saying, but I think. From the flower side of it, I
was thinking of him as another one of these rookie guys.
It's probably no pun intended. Gonna bloom in the at the end of
the. Season a little bit more.
I kinda, you know, I kinda decided halfway through than it
was intended. But, but with Bateman being out
and Flowers getting first teamwork in August, that's great
for him to potentially speed up that timeline in season.
Because I thought, you know early early year you're going to
have Odell and and and Bateman and Andrews as the main guys.
Flowers maybe just places Odell if he's not doing great or you
know if Bateman's not healthy or whatever happens, Flowers works
his way in and he's a guy that's you know in October, November
riser. But I mean, Flowers might now be
a lot more involved earlier and and having good camp.
With the first team helps that in season progression, right?
So I think these are all positive things for Flowers.
I took Odell Beckham over Bateman in a draft playing the
ADP game and. We're sold with the Yeah, no,
seriously, like, that's that is where I'm headed.
I took flowers, I took Odell and I was like, and I'm gonna get
Bateman. And like Bateman went, I'm like,
immediately after took Odell. And I haven't stopped thinking
about it since. I really like the team and it's
like a great deal. Night sweats.
Last night he was like, God, I'm so mad at myself.
We're not taking Bateman like he's such a better pick.
The other thing I'll note like, OK, like, Oh no, he's falling
down the depth chart or whatever maybe.
But like, Flowers is a rookie, so we would expect that his
playing time will not be like locked in, you know, 95% route,
right? Even if he is kind of the
starter ahead of Bateman to begin the year.
You also have Odell coming off this injuries and older guy like
it's kind of same deal. Like I think there's me plenty
of routes for a #3 receiver. But they also are talking about
spreading out the the defense is a lot more this year using more
11 using less 12. Devin Duvernay was on the
athletics Ballers list for for a recent article by by Jeff
Suribeck. We we heard some Nelson Agilor
hype early, but that's sort of faded away.
I mean I just think like he's it would be better if he was locked
into two wide receiver sets, but that's less important on the
Ravens than it used to be. Potentially a lot less
important. And there's no one is going to
challenge this guy for the wide receiver three job at the very
least. And yeah, he's he's impressed so
far in his NFL career to an extent.
When he's out there, obviously the health has been an issue but
he's also very strong prospect as well.
So you're getting a bet on talent play at a pretty cheap
price in an offense we think could be pretty explosive.
Yeah. Last thing I'll add on, on
Bateman. Well actually two points, 1A
Bateman, one on Odell, the offense, you know offense.
Last year once Bateman got injured, completely collapsed in
Baltimore like he was so key to what they were doing.
Early in the season, Lamar was putting up massive weeks.
He looked like a league winner. For the first five weeks,
Bateman gets injured and then the offense completely
collapses. I know there were other injuries
like that wasn't the sole reason, but I do think he is
huge to what this team wants to do and a really good talent.
So I I have been buying the Bateman.
Dip I'm gonna really be kind of overexposed to him because I had
a ton early. The next thing on Odell, I am.
I'm drafting Odell and I'm kind of tired of people like saying
he's the worst wide receiver. Click on the board, like guys
he's going behind like Tyler Boyd and Jameson Williams and
Michael Thomas. Like just ahead of Juju and Nico
Collins. Like last time we saw him, he
was still really good. I think Baltimore, that's true
under on DraftKings he goes earlier.
So OK, if you are under, I'd say underdogs better.
I will say some underdog influencers who I won't name
have hammered Odell is like the worst pick on the board and I
don't know, man like he was really good last time we saw
him. He's like 2 years removed from
the injury. If Bateman just isn't ready,
like I don't think they paid Odell $15 million to not give
him a chance to be the starting wide receiver on this team.
Maybe he doesn't have it anymore, but like.
It's not like he's that priced up in this like you know,
egregious range for wider series, wide receiver, 52 going
off the board like I I think it's fully justified at that
cost. Pat, this is a really good
example of your take on the psychology of once you've
drafted a guy a bunch, you can talk yourself into him.
I mean, he said he's taking a lot of Odell and he just said,
yeah, now he's into Oh yeah, this is exactly.
The point this is exactly. It I tried Odell once and I just
I got up. Anyways, let's let's talk
quickly some followers. I think the Cup discussion can
be maybe shorter than I was expecting cuz there has been
news now that Cup is just day-to-day with this hamstring.
He hasn't really fallen a ton in ADP, he's basically just fallen
past Tyree Kill. Are you taking Kelsey over and
miss the question? Cuz I think that the smart move
right, is to take you take Hill, you take McCaffrey, but then do
you take Kelsey? And for me it's a no.
I'm still. I just took Cup Overhill and
McCaffrey and a mastiff yesterday and I'm still
completely in uncut. I wouldn't do that personally,
but I don't think it's like egregious and I'm not taking
Kelsey over him, so I wouldn't take him at everything like in
all my best ball Bbm's. That I got threes and fours.
I took Hill and McCaffrey and spread it out.
But when I had to make a decision in a mastiff, I took
cup, I'm just about to say. Upside, I mean I get it for the
upside for sure the. Only thing I'll say with cup is
so we had the day-to-day blurb which I wrote and he called him
day-to-day. Then he basically still said he
was week to week what he said he was day-to-day.
But then like I think that one of the tenor is a common, you
say day to days. We hope he's back next week or
something. I was like, well, you're still
talking in terms of and not days, but.
It's not a major injury like clearly he's going to be ready
for Week 1 and clearly it doesn't matter he's already got
he doesn't need to establish chemistry with anyone or
anything like that. But I I just do wonder, I mean
it's not his first injury he's he's had several major injuries
he's going to be 30 this season. I thought of a really horrible
Galaxy brain take by the way, this one I do not believe in,
but I was like, you know, we all talk about like the running back
usage, you know, when you have like this historic usage
seasons. He's fall you start immediately
falling out. Michael Thomas barely ever
played since the Target Cliff, Yeah.
The target Cliff. The target, Cliff Cooper Cup,
barely played. Since the.
Well, now we got to rename the episode the target.
List, Yeah, look at. No, he played.
He played nine games last year and had like, what was leading
the NFL in targets. He was right on his his
efficiency. Was cratering and then he got
hurt, is what I'm saying is what I'm saying.
No, I was not saying that's. But yeah, it's bad.
He was still good in efficiency. Is just not as otherworldly.
He was pacing for 1:40. He was pacing for 140 plus
catches last year. I don't believe this take.
He's played thirty games in Matthew Stafford and his his 30
game pace is over 150 catches on a 17 game basis with Matthew
Stafford, including the playoffs and everything else to be.
I was like, man, Yeah, Michael, Tom and Cooper Cup.
Not really like him playing football too.
Many catches. Too many catches.
The Cliff. It's it's here.
Sorry. No, you're good.
But I just on that note, I just wrote about this for steel
stealing signals the other day. He he in his thirty games of
Stafford has pace for over 150 catchers on A17K basis.
Justin Jefferson led the league last year with 128.
Terry Kill was second with 119 and this couple was on that pace
last year as well. Like if I'm concerned about the
injury when I'm saying I took him in that mast, If I'm not not
concerned about the injury, I'm very much concerned about the
injury. But I do think if Cooper Cup is
healthy, his range of outcomes is higher than I think it's in
the tier with Jefferson and Chase.
Getting Gretch, Yeah, sorry, I said.
I'm not. It's not like I'm not concerned
about him being out there week one, but I'm just concerned
about the injury and that it's becoming the latest in a line of
injuries. Maybe not a long line of
injuries, but he's the guy who's 30, you know, he's got injuries
on his resume now. Yeah, for sure.
It's also like when you're. Trying to like.
Christian McCaffrey and Tyree Kill like I think those guys
stealing cases are also insane. So that's just where I'm like I
kind of want to follow the market here and if the market is
dropping him, I want pretty equal exposure to those guys.
I do see the argument for cop like maybe having a higher
ultimate ceiling than those two. But man Christian McCaffrey can
you know go for a thousand 1000 again this year like that that's
in the range outcomes. Tyree Kill could definitely lose
to the targets. I don't think it is for
McCaffrey this year. I'll say that pretty
definitively because the way that they use Mitchell and the
other options they have in the passing game, I don't think 1000
and 1000 is anywhere near his range.
You. Want to talk about?
I think he's gonna have a great year.
Gretch, just say you don't want to talk about a guy who doesn't
play football. Eli Mitchell, Christian
McCaffrey? Well, that too.
Yeah. Oh, Elijah Mitchell.
Sorry, it's funny eventually because 49ers just on The
Athletic, they just put on an article that was like Ken
McCaffrey gets with a thousand 1000.
But I tend to, I I tend to agree that like, I'm a little bit
less, I'm a little bit more nervous about Mccaffrey's like,
workload because they're going to be a good team and they're
just not going to like they've so much more to play for.
Then I think, Pat, was it you that were saying like Mike Evans
was just going to be like the whole point of a Buccaneer
season is to get Mike Evans to 1000 yards?
Like, I'm hell of a lot of saying that.
But yeah, yeah, that's literally the entire point of the That is
not the way the 49ers are going to be playing this season.
Like they they're going to be resting.
McCaffrey. If anything, before this
hamstring thing, I was taking cup heavily, like essentially
every time out of the 103 or the 104 I was taking cup and then he
was often there. Not often, but sometimes there
at the 1:05 I was intentionally without sacrificing Justin
Jefferson or Jamar Chase shares trying to get overweight on cup.
This was also during the Tyree kid who got on a boat period.
So I figured especially confident in that, but now
right. So my take is in the context of
that, that being My Portfolio. Now I'm happy to take cup
whenever he's at 5:00, but I'm kind of reversing it with the
now that the market's flipped, I'm like, sure.
And now I'll at 3:00, I'll take Hill or and I take McCaffrey 4
usually and then cup at five, yeah.
I mean also McCaffrey is he had 1900 yards from scrimmage last
year, cups best season ever. He had like 19140.
So, and that was also a season he got traded in the middle of
the season and like the first game with the 49ers, like barely
played at all and still got to like 1900 total yards.
So. I don't know.
I like. CMC not playing.
Gretchen and I were joking about he played last year.
He came very close, like several times.
Like he he, he was like on the highway with the tire was still
going, but it was like about to come off, like if the game
didn't end soon, yeah. He played hurting the end of the
year. He just I am taking some CMC.
Plus. Too the target.
He was reaching the target. Yeah, he got the target.
It's a yeah. It's a thing.
It's officially a thing. It's a thing, OK, That's.
Let's move on to Dobbins. This this one's kind of weird,
so let's break it down. He's down 7 spots in ADP, the
third biggest faller on this list.
He's maybe injured, he's maybe holding in, but at the same
time, there's always quotes that he's he's he's hugging the owner
whenever he sees him on the field, he's hugging the general
manager. There's all these quotes about
him, like he's talking about everybody.
Yeah. So it's like a very pleasant
hold in. I I don't think he's actually
injured. I did pull up this.
Twitter screenshot You can check out Aaron Wilson under Score
NFL. I think he's.
Is he doing a one arm push up right there?
Look at him, he looks yes. There's also a clip.
I would pull it up on video but there's a clip of him like
dragging this like weighted sled and then like sprinting with it
attached to him like he he does not look like injured in these
workout. Clips from July.
So his life, I mean. Yeah got warriors.
I got him in the seventh round of a mastiff the other day like
and I I did think about it because I'm like this is a
tournament that you know is is it like it's like a 5050 the way
they structured it. So you don't you don't want to
take on a ton of risk but I'm like it's the seventh round like
this dude could be awesome. I I don't know I I think and you
can regularly get him in the seventh round on DraftKings so
and you can like we we we did a draft best ball mania draft.
We almost got him in the seventh round of that draft when when I
was on the Rotor World Football Show.
So I mean I am I was a little bit underweight because in the
fifth round, the five sixth turn, I kind of want to be
grabbing receivers there a decent amount.
I have been aggressively drafting Dobbins recently to try
to get overweight during this period.
I think it's going to be, I honestly think it's going to be
one of the big reasons to have drafted and it's like late July,
early August period, the Dobbins who does not really appear to be
injured. And it's clearly contract
related, clearly. And the Ravens are like being
totally like this is the most congenial Holden I've ever seen.
Like everyone's going like dinner parties and hanging out.
I wonder if the Ravens, like, don't even care that he's not.
Like, maybe they don't even want a guy with his injury history to
be practicing right now. You know, like that kind of
thing. And it seems like everyone
involved like the back slapping, like they know, like some
incentives, they're just gonna be added to his deal or
something and for some reason they can't sign on the dotted
line yet. But.
Doesn't seem like a lot to be genuinely concerned about.
It could. I mean, I do think what what you
just sort of hit on is probably part of it.
I do think some of these teams are like, look, we don't need
running backs to practice in at August 7th, like later in Adrian
Peterson's career. He would not play.
He was like one of the first backs that would not play in the
preseason and they would give him a really light load and then
say, hey, week one, you show up and be ready.
You're Adrian Peterson. You can get your body ready.
We're not gonna give you any more hits.
Your whole job is to try to hold up to a massive amount of hits
over the course of the regular season.
We're not gonna give you any more in camp.
We don't want to. And Dobbins, with the injury
history like it seems like that's what they're saying, like
Ravens are very in on analytics and everything.
Organizationally, I would expect someone smart in their building
is like, let's not have JK Dobbins do a lot in August.
Like why would we? Yeah, the also for his ACL in
sorry, sorry Pat. He did tear his ACL in the
preseason when he got injured in 2021, right?
So I think that's part of it. Maybe for him too.
He's like, hey, if I'm not getting a contract, like, I'm
just not gonna play in the preseason, maybe the team's just
like, that's reasonable, like you do you, man?
Yeah, yeah, they their carball's a little annoyed.
So some of his quotes are like, yeah, I mean it's like
definitely be better if he was out there, but like, I I don't
know. I mean the the Consingulare is
calling it a hug in that was pretty good.
The hug in That's beautiful. Players are always innovating.
Yeah, I will say it is like I do get the thing about him, like
not playing. Doesn't matter if running backs
aren't playing. Like maybe it's not as important
as wide receivers getting reps in with Lamar.
But it is a completely new offense that in in theory is
gonna use running backs way differently than it has in the
past in Baltimore. I don't know how much weight to
put on that, but like if he's not, if this is like one of
those holdings where he's like not out there until, I don't
know, August 31st or whatever, like that would concern me like
a little bit. A little bit, yeah, at his
price. Like there is out of risk for
sure, yeah. The market is paying you to not
worry about it though. Like a lot.
They're paying you like 2 rounds.
If this dude was going in the mid 5th on DraftKings and now
he's in the mid 7th. And he's clear most talented
running back. That's something.
I mean, like he's a lot younger than Gus Edwards.
One of the things that the Pat and I talked about on the ship
chasing recently. But I'm way more concerned about
Gus Edwards coming back and getting back to form.
Dobbins is 24. Edwards is 28 like.
Dobbins is there Mo and and Dobbins was a lot better the
last couple years, 6.05.7 yards per carry.
Edwards was 5.0 last year in his, you know, small sample,
which is good, but those are different scales, right?
And Lamar obviously influences those things.
Dobbins has 6.0 yards per carry potential.
Like he's their most talented back.
He's really, really good at football for sure.
I will say strategy tip, if you wanna draft any of these players
that are injured go to DraftKings.
So they put that little red out symbol next to their names and
that causes the market to be like crazy reactive to these
injuries. Like Garrett Wilson I think is
listed as like questionable in DraftKings now because he has a
you know mild low ankle strain and now he drops to like the end
of the second round. So the the DraftKings like
reaction to this the the red injured symbol is a pretty good
way to make a profit. Yeah, I think it's great.
Let's move on here to Elijah Mitchell.
We get last some more time. We can maybe hit on some of
these other followers as well, but he is kind of an interesting
one. There's a couple things going on
with him. He's down just a couple spots,
but one, he has this abdominal strain or a ductor strain that
should keep him out for a week. And then second, Pat.
I was listening to the Road World Show, where Rob Guerrera,
I believe he's a beat writer for the 49ers.
He talked about how Elijah Mitchell's roster spot is maybe
not as secure as people think. And that was even before the
injury, I think. I think that was before the
abdominal strain. So yeah, curious like what?
I was shocked when I was listening to podcast and heard
that. Yeah, I mean, I don't think, I
don't think that is the case, but I do think it could be the
case where he was saying something else basically that.
He's the kind of guy that might be dead, like Kyle Shanahan,
basically. So maybe, like maybe off the
roster and another like by another name, basically like
this. We cannot count on this guy
anymore. Like we got Jordan Mason, we got
TDP, I'm sure we got some other they get.
A little emotional to me. Doesn't he?
He's very, he's very emotional. He's.
Very, very, very emotional. Like, not a joke.
Like he trades up for people. Like he'll make like dramatic
trade ups and then like be off of them like three months later.
It happens like almost every year.
Like he'll trade up for a receiver and then be off of them
for like over a year. He isn't a very with that
emotional he. Was out on ayuke, ayuke had to
like. I know it was insane.
Ayuke. And like before there was Ayuke.
There was Dante Pettis. We traded like way the hell up
for and then was out on him like totally immediately.
I guess the league has shown that that.
Decision, Trey Servin, TDP like those are, I mean a lot of
capital on those backs and not using it, yeah.
Maybe what Rob was kind of getting at there is just that
the vibe is that Shanny is not in to Elijah, because I can't
see any way it doesn't. Make it Well is Jordan Mason the
the next man? But Jordan Mason's?
A good pipe on Jordan Mason. Yeah, they were pipe in Jordan
Mason. I think on that pod he he
mentioned Jordan Mason. But I've also.
Read stuff in The Athletic about Jordan Mason looking really
good. I also read today about Tyrion
Davis. Price apparently played last
season at 2:15 and shed a bunch of fat, but now weighs 228.
Yeah, I saw that too. I was like, did they make a
typo? Was it supposed to be the other
way around later? They're, they're in.
They're implying that he put on like.
Potentially 30 pounds of muscles.
Say 30 pounds of muscle. Because it's like.
He's cut 7 pounds of fat to get down to 208, but now he weighs
220. 8 This is literally that. Those gifts where there's like,
all the bad equations in the background, We're all trying to
figure out how much muscle he just put on.
Like what? The one, the one dude, I forget
who it was. So I think his skill position
coach for the 49ers was like, it's honestly like incredible
how much better he's gotten. So not that he's.
That bit, like, it's unlikely it's gonna make an impact this
year, but you don't wanna hear that if you've drafted a bunch
of Elijah Mitchell, which I have.
I've cooled off on Elijah Mitchell quite a bit.
Because with all these guys where it's like, hey, at least I
know he's the locked in #2. As soon as I hear like multiple
guys who might challenge him as the locked in #2, then I'm gonna
be. I'm gonna be.
And he's already hurt. It's just like, how is this guy
hurt again? Yeah, he's already hurt.
It's hard to play football. I mean, I'm not trying to like,
obviously, but like, how on planet earth is Elijah Mitchell
hurt again? Like it?
Makes absolutely no sense. That was, that was an amazing
plan for some reason that maybe you remember when you ran the
the 40 at the combine, which is the it's hard to play football.
Yeah, I didn't get hurt. I didn't get hurt.
I was wearing dress shoes too, so.
When you leaked at the end, you took.
A little I did. I wrecked the tackling dummies,
I will say. That was, yeah, that was
impressive, that. Was great.
So how far are you guys dropping Mitchell?
Cuz I think for me what feels right is he goes now ahead of
Tank Bigsby, Jalen Warren and Tyler Algier.
I think I would drop him below Algier but still ahead of
Kendra, ahead of Rochon. Those guys have tons of concerns
about their spot in the roster as well.
That's probably what I'd do. That's exactly where I have.
I just pulled up the rankings on legendary upside.
I dropped him behind Bigsby and Algier, but he's ahead of that
next group. But honestly, I I think I would
take your own Ford ahead of him. Like, I think I'm Jerome Ford
should be going way higher, I think, yeah, I think that's a
situation where there's no buzz or bringing in a veteran running
back. They sat him for the Hall of
Fame Game and played Felton and whatever the other guy is, a
bunch of snaps like. I think Ford is like so clearly
the number two and the market hasn't reacted quick enough.
I'm gonna move out there. Maybe I'll move forward up
instead. Of I still can't believe they
haven't signed anybody, but like you've said, it seems like they
genuinely like Jerry Ford and aren't gonna do that and that he
is locked in. Yeah, they seem pretty into it.
It's. I'm gonna drum beat.
That was a weird drum beat, too. That drum beat started in, like,
February. Like, OK, wow.
He's like a Matthew. Wasn't that like a Matthew
Berry? Like, he snuck a little line
into something. Yeah, article of That's just.
It was a combine rumor. But then when you go look at his
last year, because he played on special teams, he was actually
active for 13 games last year and was basically not used on
offense. So he's one of those guys that
you don't really have a good reason for why they didn't mix
him in because he was active. But I guess it just like.
Wasn't good. So that has been right.
Like for me, Jerome Ford, where if a coaching staff really loves
a player, they forced themselves onto the field like somehow and
he just. Yeah, yeah.
Although we just, I was just Damien Harris, right?
They completely red shirted him and then we got buzz that he was
gonna be. Involved is a second year player
and then he was. Yeah, I mean, if they think of
it like the Cream Hunt is like a very specific role, right?
Then I guess it makes some sense.
But yeah, 13 games last year he got eight offensive touches and
he was active for 13 games. That's weird, right?
That is very weird. I was so skeptical of him for a
while, Gretch, because that I'm just like, what is this Jerome
Ford thing? Like, they're gonna sign for
net, they're gonna sign Kenny and Drake.
They're gonna sign somebody, right?
Like, I'm not buying this guy that gave me carries to last
year for 12 yards and some like locked in RB 2, But now I think
I have to believe it, right? Like, I guess it's still
possible they could bring in for net.
Sure, it's theoretically possible.
There's been absolutely zero buzz.
I think they feel pretty confident about it.
Anything to your point was sort of the last draw.
I'm with you guys, I think. I think you gotta move him up at
this point. They didn't even use him in the
Hall of Fame game. Like they are locking him into a
role, for sure. Yeah, let's talk a couple other
interesting followers here. I think the the Patriots
situation is interesting to talk about as well.
Taekwon Thornton is down pretty steeply here, down about around
and a half on news that I think for a while people were
projecting him to sort of be a starter for the Patriots.
You know, before Parker got the extension, before they brought
in Juju. Now the buzz coming out of
Patriots camp is that he's competing with Kendrick Bourne
and Demario Douglas for a role in 11 personnel and he has,
like, you know, no chance at being sort of fulltime starter
on the team. So I'm just curious.
I know like some people were high on Thornton as a potential
year to break out. Is anyone still like are the
reasons to draft him because he's he's, to be honest,
completely off my board? Like I'm not even considering
him now, But does anyone wanna make a case for?
I I took him a decent amount earlier.
I I'm completely not taking him now on these concerns, in part
because I have more exposure than I'd like to have at this
point. But I took him a decent amount
earlier because I thought the offense could could turn around.
I liked the late back stack potential.
I took too much Mac Jones early as well and he felt like the
clearest upside path in the wide receiver room.
I think we know Devante Parker's not a huge upside guy.
He's going to be like a decent, and in basketball those players
can help you like a decent producer, you know, Hopefully
you get some spike weeks out of him going to run some routes.
He was pretty solid last year when you look at his, you know,
peripherals and everything, but not going to be like a huge
breakout. The idea for me earlier in the
offseason was that Thorn could be.
The one guy in this passing game had the potential to sort of
consolidate second round rookie pick last year or I mean draft
pick last year like NFL pick and and has the speed and then a
decent production profile in college that you know he could
be a guy that actually was a breakout for them if they're
passing him took a step forward with Bill O'Brien and he was
like the key part of that step forward.
But it's, yeah, it's not sounding great in August.
It does concern Pat. I'd be curious to get your
thoughts cuz like the the thing with.
Training camp is that a lot of it is positive.
You know, you hear positive stuff or you don't hear that
much stuff, or you hear about injuries, but you don't tend to
hear like this guy, Ain't it like that.
That's not really what training camp, that's what you're
hearing. But yeah, today in The Athletic,
the headline. So it's like a bullet point
thing here and bullet point number six.
So this by Chad Graf of The Athletic, bullet point number
six is it doesn't look like Taekwon Thornton is breaking out
and then goes on to talk about how he struggled.
It's been a slow start. Of the team's top six receivers,
who was the only one who hadn't caught a pass in 11 on 11 drills
through the 1st 6 practices? Then he seemed to suffer an
injury that kept him off the field since then.
Like, this seems very bad. I'm not.
And then, you know, again, we're used to hearing, we're used to
parsing hype. Not like this Dude's done.
No, I know. And you say the fact that it's
going back to the spring is this weird, like and just even that
applies to not just rookies but like.
Any young player like, they missed a lot of the offseason,
even. It's like very legitimate
reasons that seems to no matter what, like sour the coaching
staff, somehow there was someone had resurfaced a tweet like a
day or two ago or like the receiver coach was based like,
no, no, Taekwon. Thornton's still good, but all
he did was like, talk about him being fast, talk about him like
he didn't, like say anything really, like like convincing
that he's he's very fast, very, very fast.
And yeah. Which like super late in the
best ball draft. Like OK, well maybe they use him
on the head around in the red zone or something.
Like maybe he scores a touchdown at some point, it seems.
Like the bats? Yeah, send someone out there to
fight. We gotta, like, try to change
the Taekwon narrative. Taekwon Thornton narrative a
little bit. And he's just like, he's very
fast. He's still fast.
Yeah, still fast. I think with Thornton too, like
you wanna be, you wanna like, revisit what the bet was, You
know, like so Thornton was a bet on.
Second round draft capital routes and speed.
And so like, he's still technically was a second round
pick, but the team's not treating him like that anymore.
The speed is the only part of this he's.
Fast. He's still fast.
That's what he has, yeah. He wasn't efficient at all as a
rookie. The team now seems pretty like
reluctant to really give him much of A role.
The routes look. I mean we you cannot say that he
has routes like routes are now a full blown question mark, so.
It's just it's just down to speed.
Yeah, well, another tweet from Doug Guide or this was from
yesterday. Taekwon Thornton's lack of
physicality was evident at times.
That sounds good. Well, the thing you do have
going for you with the type one bet is that Belcher does have a
really good track record of hitting on sort of wide
receivers. So that you still have that to
go back on? But that lack of physicality
thing, wasn't that a Nikhil Harry thing?
Like, so sometimes do you wonder these beats get some of their,
like, buzzwords or their notes on players from the coaches,
like the coaches telling him, you know, on the sideline, like,
yeah, we're worried about thorns physicality.
And then we end up seeing that in a tweet where he's like, hey,
his lack of physicality was evident.
That was. I feel like one of the things we
heard about Nikhil Harry early on was that he was not physical
enough. It might be the Patriots kind of
way of, you know, we're out on this dude.
Like, even. More so than.
Like he's not. He's not doing what we need him
to do physically. Yeah, that's obviously bad.
But to me, the biggest red flag was like, I think this was maybe
last Thursday or something. It was reported that Juju
appeared to be ahead of him in two wide receiver sets.
That means Juju as an outside wide receiver is more trusted
than you, which is a. Huge red flag.
We're talking huge. Yes, we're going to, man,
they're, they're hyping up that's.
Not huge. Kendrick Bourne, who?
The team hit it and the beat was like, so down on last year.
They're hyping up Kendrick Bourne.
They're hyping up this six round rookie that no one's heard of.
And like, there's one guy that's not getting positive reviews and
everyone else is getting positive reviews, so.
Yeah, it's. Well, Mike was saying.
He's getting very negative reviews as well.
See Crane hit on a really interesting point too.
Like like it's. It's not always noteworthy when
someone gets praised because you're kind of expecting that
that that this time of year it is very noteworthy when yeah,
they just can't think of anything nice to say and so
they. And then they still don't say
anything at all. Instead of not saying anything
at all, they say something. Not, they say, the bad things,
yeah. So you guys are saying all of my
Mac Jones backstacks have to be Hunter Henry now?
Because I was saying backstacks are you gotta, you gotta open
your third eye. Devante Parker.
I hate. My eyes open.
I mean, he's gonna run the route.
Parker's running all the routes, and hey, hey, look at his box
scores. Last year you're gonna see two
massive games. My computer turned.
Weed self off when I googled Devante Parker ESPN game Log.
There's another guy that doesn't play a lot of football, like you
stayed healthy last year, but I mean, good luck.
He's gonna make it through. Actually, he did.
He played thirteen games last year.
He's played sixteen games once in his career.
Hey, third sounds like Cooper Cup.
Sounds like Cooper Cup. Am I right?
Think about Duvante Parker's He will never hit the target Cliff.
It's actually impossible for. Them true?
Yeah. Or maybe he did that one season
of Miami where he had 12. 100 Patrick ruined him.
Fitzpatrick. Grew to the target Cliff.
He hit the target Cliff. To be clear, I do not believe in
the target. Cliff.
I love the target Cliff. I have to emphasize this.
There is Tony, another guy on this list who will probably
never hit the target Cliff. He doesn't have enough.
Now, Pat. Did he hit the target Cliff in a
single game? Is there a single game target
clip? Yeah, no.
Yeah, he did. You're right.
The 15 target game or whatever that he had early for the Giants
two years ago, that was the target Cliff for Tony.
Interesting. You know, it's usually in a
season, but it can happen in a game.
There's too much pressure on his lower body and he's never been
the same after that. I think it was.
I think it wasn't a genuinely like a 17 target game or
something. I'm pulling it up.
He had a 13 target game and then a 12 target game later in the
same year. Wow.
I mean. Crazy.
That's That's a career under. Honestly, might have been a
career with Tony, like the way he's able to, like, move his
body in ways that no other human does.
Like maybe don't. Maybe, I know, I think.
Maybe move it in a normal way. The kidding aside that I really
do think that has to be it. He's placing like force on his
joints that just like it's not natural.
Just it's. Actually, kind of like when you
watch the move, it's almost impressive that he doesn't get
hurt. More like I think if I tried to
do any of the moves that Tony did, like my bones would
literally be like popping out of my skin.
Well, his are too, yeah. Yeah.
Well, I think they always show is him scoring that TD in the
sideline where he hopped into the end zone and it actually
wasn't hurt, but like that was bad form.
Yeah, like, dude, don't do that. Like, you don't do that.
Everyone watching that was like, oh, he's hurt again.
And then he wasn't hurt. I was like, OK, well, you're
hurt 2 seconds later, so I mean, he's literally.
Tempting fate like, Oh no, am I hurting everyone?
Justin Jefferson did that. Like, yeah, you man just tore
your knee, dude. So my question on Tony is why is
he still going at 95 and how has he not fallen to like 120 like?
I'm, I'm taking him at. I'm one of the guys.
I'm taking him. 95. I'm willing to take him to 95.
It's it's correlated. I'm taking him Correlated, but
all right, you guys. You guys hate.
Who were they playing in Week 17?
I'm sure I'm the only one. Of the Bengals.
Bengals. My Bengals.
Oh my God. That's.
That's part of the reason why. Because you got Burrow.
So. So here's the thing.
Burrow and and my homes are on that side of the board.
So that's like in the the spot where you're looking to be
taking Tony anyway? And then right, I have that
right, don't I? I'm not reaching for Tony.
Tell me. I'm not reaching for Tony. 95 is
late 8. Late 8 Okay.
Yeah. So the 8-9 turn.
Yeah. So that's he's set up for the
correlation pick. And then you just think about
like, you know late season upside spike weeks hitting your
lineup at that 8-9 price. You know, that's probably like
your wider see were five. Like that's actually kind of
what you're looking for, you know?
So he, he fits your builds, I think so much more logically
than he did when he was at that 6-7 turn.
That was like a core piece, like a guy you need contributing more
regularly. Again, this goes to like how I
tend to build teams where I'm often 4 wide receivers deep
before I take Tony. But I just think he can like I
can kind of carry Tony through a few weeks of him not playing at
all. And then there's going to be
some inconsistent. He'll be there to not play later
as well. Yeah, that's true.
He'll also, I'll carry him through those first few weeks
and he doesn't play until the later.
He's gonna be on the Houston Texans then, by the way.
But. But look, I mean, if you want to
talk about pick 120, right? I mean, Jamison Williams goes at
pick 102 and has gotten very poor reviews in training camp.
Dan Campbell coming out and saying, like, I just don't think
his hands are like that good. He's just got bad hands, so Oh
well. Like that seems that seems bad.
That's not good. He's suspended for six games,
has never, I mean he has one career reception, he has one
career reception and we're still taking him at 102.
I do think like relative to Jamison Williams, Tony makes a
lot of sense and especially because you're able to correlate
him with either borough or. But those aren't your only two
options. You could take a run.
I was gonna say I agree if you. I agree.
If you compare every pick with Jameson Williams, it's a good
argument to make that pick. But.
Yeah, sure. But he's sort of right.
It's a similar play. It's a similar play where you're
now. Yeah, maybe he's just massively.
I'm talking about someone to Tony.
Here's here's the other pick in this range that I could argue is
the other worst pick in this range, and he's better than
that. But I'm just like, all right,
It's like a pure. Upside play and I know I'm
missing games. I'm getting I'm missing fewer
than six games, probably. And I think he has more upside.
So I'm just like, so yeah, but you're right, Jameson wants
brought his terrible pick and I shouldn't take Tony either.
Well, that's. That's a good way to That's my
thought on Tony's things out. I feel like he's outside the
wide receiver window and I want to be pivoting to receivers if
I'm or. I mean running backs if I'm
thinking Tony like I I I'm now thought like I I see there's
upside pass for him. But I've now gotten to the point
where I'm like I. Don't want to be trusting him
anywhere near this ADP, basically.
Were you taking any at all? Cuz that's part of it for me too
is I had a massive. I had not had that first drag of
a Cadarius Tony cigarette yet. I have not.
I think I've taken him a couple times.
But no, not a lot correlating. A couple times.
Yeah, I'd taken him I think one. I think my one.
I had like 2 shares, but one was it a Mastiff?
And I was like God. Damn, I was a big hit of
gadarius, Tony. Yeah, because I got, I was
getting nervous, like, what are those Mastiffs costs again?
This costs 1000 thousand dollars So yeah it's not I don't feel
good about it the but he was making me nervous like I had
this incredibly hard stance against Gadarius Tony.
But the upside? You know, if he stayed healthy,
this is before he got hurt. But if he stayed healthy and
they were talking up as the number wide receiver, like I
know we can earn targets at a very high rate in any given
game. Like he was someone I was like
this dude could bury me. So now that I can get him still
correlated at the 8-9 turn, I'm just trying to mix him in
because I do think there there are late season scenarios where
it's like don't you kind of needed Tony?
I think that's that's definitely fair and when you're drafting
7000 teams like Pat Karain, you should probably find ways to mix
him in. But for everyone else, yeah, I
also think that like, so if we're saying the way Justin Ross
makes the team is Tony gets stashed in IR, I think.
We're gonna get that new cycle and he's gonna drop.
Good point. More rounds, Pat.
So that's, that's what I'm like, DraftKings.
He's dropped way more than he has an underdog.
I will say DraftKings. Underdog is way less reactive to
DraftKings, but I think sometimes like in a in a bad way
like Tony as I agree like so slowly from where he was from
like guys. I don't get it.
Like it should be a big drop, like pretty quickly, which
DraftKings reflected. Underdog has not reflected that,
so I'm just waiting. More like I took him at like 115
one time on Underdog where he fell Aton.
I'm kind of waiting. I'm waiting.
Get off the ADP like I know ADP like, oh we gotta take ADP value
and stuff like but this is not the time just to like blindly
scoop ADP value. You do want to be like, I was
making fun of, you know, some of the falls was like Pacheco goes
on pup and everyone like freaked out.
So like, we don't want to just like chase our tail on this
stuff. But when material things happen,
we do want to be willing to like fade to do, like to skip out on
that sweet, sweet ADP value because things are changing
around till you die. That's the only way to go.
Great. What's the timer on the mastiff?
Is this still only 30 seconds? I so I haven't been able to get
any fast mastiffs in there. I did.
I did mine slow. All right, good.
But I. Feel like you should.
I mean we will do a fast mast if we are on the show as we're
wrapping up here. A fast if coming up, I think.
Yeah, fast if maybe next week, maybe in three weeks, we'll
figure it out. But.
Anyways, that was that was good. You know, 30 minutes and let you
slot receivers 30 minutes and the giant slot receivers and 30
minutes. I made Sam put Tony back on the
agenda. Pat for you.
Yeah, that that's true. Actually I actually tried to
remove never once on a podcast where we did not discuss
Canaries Tony for a minimum of 15 minutes and he even you know.
Of course we all knew that the the Justin that Ross was just a
that was like a back door to get Tony talk in there and then we
still had we still had Tony on the agenda anyway so.
Yeah, you gotta you gotta double dip with Tony in every show.
It hurts to be the Tony Truther. I think I'm gonna.
I'm gonna have to be. That was interesting, Pat.
Doesn't seem like the PAT I've come to know.
Well, I think, I think Sam's right about the his fall.
I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna just 1011 turn.
I'm gonna be in a 10/11 turn though, guys.
Yeah, stop holding him up. After I myself have done this
five to six times, I noticed it became very sensible and doing
it. Cool, man.
All right, Pat, what do we have going on on Rotor Worlds?
What's what's in the works? You know, trying to do some
blurbs, that kind of things of that nature.
Preseason is finally beginning this week.
That'll be interesting. We'll try not to react overreact
to. That's the thing with the
preseason is like knowing what even more than training camp has
become Hard to know what to actually react to since like all
32 teams now basically approach the preseason differently.
Some teams will genuinely play their starters way fewer than
they used to. And just trying to parse the
preseason. We're gonna have some a lot of
preseason Week 1 followup content next week.
I'm trying to do like kind of a canned article.
Like like, not a very creative concept, but I am working on
ranking the fantasy offenses and so I'm hoping that's up by the
end of the week. So you just keep it locked to
the site, keep it locked to a roto pet on X, and yeah.
You've never heard anyone do that promotional thing.
That's what we got going right now.
I'm really hoping they fight, by the way.
Yeah. Yeah, I think he did on X this
morning. I know.
Gosh. Gosh.
I hope Elon avoids the the PUP list before that.
I know I think Elon's not hoping to avoid the PUP list.
I think he's actually demanding they find a reason to get him on
the PUP list. Elon not in the best shape of
his life. No.
And reports the beat is not really high.
And just in case people don't know what we're talking about,
it's two of the richest people in the world trying to arrange a
cage match, Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk.
And one of them is undergoing an Mr. I I wish any of this were
fake, but it's all true. So, yeah, there you go.
Great way to end the show. As reported by the Wall Street
Journal. Anyways, this is not This is why
we are stacking Jalen Hyatt with Matthew Stafford in real life.
So. That's a simulation.
This does feel pretty simulation.
Pat, what do we got going on a legendary upside.
I teased an article that I had out last week that was a fun,
fun little short article. And hey, if you sign up at
legendaryupside.com you can also hear that narrated as a podcast.
If you sign up it's $10 a month, 99 for the year, but yearly sub
will get you a $50 hundred dollar credit if you fill out a
form that you find on home page of legendaryupside.com.
Yeah, that can get you a full 10th of a mastiff right there.
So that's a pretty, pretty good deal.
We're two Bbm's, you know? The R2 BBM fours 2 fours.
Yeah, two fours. Gretch.
What? What do we got going on stealing
signals? I'm about to finish the
offseason stealing signals post, which was team by team deep
dives. Listen out the signals and the
noise and the key stats and breakdowns for each rankings.
You know, tiered targets and fades, lot, lot of stuff coming.
I don't know. I had a whole list over there,
so yeah. Awesome stuff.
We'll be back next week, I think, you know three or four
more ADP chasings left to close out the season.
We'll have Leonie on at some point.
We'll be doing a massive draft and we'll be finally going over
our ADP value game at some point to close up the year, which I've
definitely been. Diligently tracking and
definitely have those all written down something there so.
Do we take that to the to the wire or we calling like a like a
show where it has to come in by? We'll figure it out.
I got. I definitely have a plan for it.
Don't. It's like, I don't know that
poor Pixar Pen. Anyways, Funcho guys.
We'll see you here next week.