Its main event time guys. It is time to prepare for our
season long high-stakes leagues. This is one of my favorite
shows. We do every year we bring in
Rota visit, Sean Siegel we pick his brain, we get to the bottom
of the 0r B targets, the current drafting landscape, everything
you need to know, No, to be prepared for draft season, let's
do it. Prior homos.
Anita handjob exercise for your Mar Chase.
The infamous line immortalized on stream, Sean re still
horrified every time, you remember that we got you to say
that, you know. Yes, we'll go ahead.
That's right. An all-time iconic moment that
will never come out of the intro around here.
Well Shawn, as I said in the intro, very excited to have you
here. I feel like every year, I
remember two years ago, I believe when you first The show
it was right. When you had just started doing
more content on the audio side and it felt like such a treat to
get you away from, just the keyboard and hear your thoughts.
And now, we're so blessed with you.
Do year round, you're doing all kinds of great stuff with column
with been obviously still got your writing stuff going, but
what does it feel like turning into more of a multimedia
fantasy football personality than just a writer?
Well, I guess I don't really know and that's again, one of
the things I'm not really getting Ding all that feedback.
But it's been an absolute blast doing all those shows of column
doing the show's over the last year, with Ben.
I mean, they become my best friends and it's just an amazing
experience. I'm sure on the other side of
it, there are a lot of listeners feel like they could make fewer
shows. We need that much Sean, so, but
I enjoy it. I love it every day.
So it's been a lot of fun for sure.
And if people haven't checked out, you did a recent one with
column, where you it was more. You guys were taking some
questions from listeners and you were kind of recapping your
starts in the industry and even kind of your day to day.
It even has a Champs superfan. I enjoyed just hearing what the
day-to-day imaginations of a Sean Siegel you know, workday
look like. So highly recommend everyone
checks out wrote of his overtime.
If you guys aren't listening, obviously stealing bananas as
well. Pat and then how are you guys
doing tonight? Doing good excited for this one,
me too, I mean, this is one rod. Like, I'm excited to see.
Sit back. You guys all get to hear from
you enough. I'm going to listen, you guys
chat with each other a little bit.
This is a fun one for me. Obviously I do podcasting with
both of you both all three of you all the time.
So this is great. Michael Doom, nurses.
Your next move is viral, Tick-Tock Stark it is that in
the cards. Sean You know, I don't know
column that seems like he's having so much fun.
Now putting together the sort of the YouTube thumbnails or
whatever they're called and a handful of them have been pretty
fun. So we're excited about
everything columns doing over there, I love just imagining the
way, like things from Twitter and YouTube thumbnails.
Get relayed to you, you know, like I assume, you know, someone
sends out like a singing telegram or the Pony Express and
it gets, you know, dropped off. At your doorstep.
If you're like, oh, another one to call them zany thumbnails.
This is a great film. Now puts it back in the mail, it
says it back. Um, so how are you in general?
Just feeling about this season. I mean it seems like every year
that the trends are starting to skew closer to the kind of
things you were writing about five six years ago and even
looking at like, the first round of drafts this year where so
many drafters are willing to pass on running backs to grab
those Elite wide receivers. Do you feel that kind of title
change right now? Or does it feel like business as
usual? Yeah, obviously as there's just
so much good information out there.
Now I think you can't help but see drafts sort of move in a
more efficient Direction. Obviously ship chasing has been
just a massive influence on how drafts work and I mean Three of
you obviously are among the very best rappers out there.
So it's going to push drafts in that direction.
We also have a situation where, you know, there's going to be
chasing the previous season every year and last year, the
first round was fairly weak with the running backs.
We now have these historic level wide receivers and I mean the
first round has weak again at running back and so that's going
to move this in a little bit different direction.
If in the past you were a little bit skeptical about 0, RB
Because you didn't think you could get that Elite receiver
scoring. Now you have cup and Jefferson
and Chase and it just makes it a much easier decision it's
similar. I think to being back when you
had Calvin Johnson and, you know, he was still clearly the
best player at the scope positions in the NFL, but also
his scoring really matched up with the running backs.
And so at that time to in some ways even though obviously it
wasn't as popular as it is now, but I mean Calvin Johnson was a
pretty easy version on thick. Yeah, Gretchen and Pat.
I mean it's something I've been thinking about a lot lately,
we're in previous years. It did seem like the obvious
decision was just know. The wide receiver is by far the
best. Play the best pick at all of
these junctures. This year feels a little
trickier, like you kind of have to do some zigging and zagging
to get the pockets, meshing up, you know, in a way that wasn't
as obvious as I feel like it was in years past.
Good point. I think you're muted Pat, I'm
sorry. I'm, you know, I was just, I was
just mentioning like, AJ, Brown strikes me as someone, you know,
if he had stayed in Tennessee. I think he'd be kind of a
feature of like the early second round. 50 Higgins were not
paired with Tamar chase. You know he'd be right there.
So there's like some some guys, talent-wise this certainly
belong in that part of the draft but they're going in like the
early thirds. So it is a Bit much to like
reach for them all the way in the early second.
These just kind of created this like pretty interesting
situation where at the end of the, on the back half of the
board, you're staring down these running backs, and some of them
running backs, aren't I? Don't think I think they are
pretty decent picture. Like, I like 200 Swift a lot, I
feel like in maybe four or five years ago, nausea Harris would
be like the 102, you know, have to get like.
So it's like, okay well if he's like the 111, Seems okay.
You know. So they're definitely feel
that's why I think the where the draft rooms feel like the most
different to me as your you're looking at the potential to go
like running back running back and then you're not even
necessarily like at a huge disadvantage to what the teams
that are two or three or doing because they start with wide
receiver and they may in fact go wide receiver wide receiver wide
receiver. And so you already disadvantaged
but at least you have a different structure than they
do. We've talked about this in small
remainder. An event decisions.
It definitely feels different from from those spots, for sure.
One of the things I would say that is influence this, and you
bringing up AJ, Brown is a great example because I think it think
is really interesting. You said if, if he was still in
Tennessee he might be in the early second.
I think he's going to be the better pick and Philadelphia.
I think there's more unknown in a positive way.
I don't think Tennessee situation was necessarily great
for him. So I've thought he was a really
good value where he's going for most of the offseason, but On
both of our shows as about to say on this show.
But also with Shawn since the offseason we've been talking
about how crazy this this off, season has been how crazy 22 is
going to be for Fantasy Football.
How many huge players change? Teens, and franchises.
Whole identity is shifted, right?
Like the, the huge franchise altering quarterback moves of
the biggest ones. Russell Wilson leaving, Seattle
and going to Denver and so many others, but even Tyree kill and
Davante Adams. There's so many and those are
players that the skill players, particularly the typically would
go in in this range. I think of, you know, a lot of
them to me just feels like we have these five guys at the top,
that we feel really good about their in the same spots.
We feel awesome about himself, Travis Kelce, we feel awesome
about but the rest of the league feels like it's very much in a
transition here. 20:22 feels like a transition year.
For the entire league in a way that I saw grab my head around
and we have a month ago until the season.
Yeah. I mean, even just if I mean, the
entire offseason was littered with wide receivers either
changing teams or getting massive contracts as it seemed
like the NFL in. These franchises started to view
wide receivers in a different way than they had previously.
And it's almost funny to think, back to, we had the studies on,
hey wide receivers changing teams, you know, typically their
production decreased after that, and then of course, Diggs and
Hopkins kind of buck that Trend. And now we're in this other are
I'm how many do we have? Like, six, seven of these guys
who have changed teams? It does seem like so much
uncertainty with Elite Talent, Sean, how are you kind of
handling that because I do think AJ Brown in Tyree kill and even
Davante Adams. Like some of these guys are a
little bit they're less they feel less safe, less comfy than
they would be if they were just back on their same teams I love
it right? Because the the more uncertainty
you have the wider the range of outcomes especially for players
who could score a ton of points you could be the league winners
who could be the tournament winners the better prices you're
going to get on them. The more opportunity you have to
stack a lot of those guys together and the more
opportunity you have to be right in a way where perhaps not
everybody in the community is and and it's just a lot of fun
because you know, you can go after your particular guys.
You can have takes that maybe you're a little bit stronger
than everybody. At the top, we're locked into
very clear-cut volume on the role and rapport with the QB to
not have that. I'm really excited for 2022.
Yeah. Terry kills a great example
because I mean if he was still in the Chiefs I mean he'd be
going head of Davante Adams, right?
So yes it's a huge discount, you're getting on him and then
debose another guy who comes to mind, I feel like the contract
situation still sort of knocking down a little bit, then
obviously Trail ants and the uncertainty.
And the quarterback change is definitely affecting.
How often do you see a player have a year?
Like Depot and then they and the team goes into Championship then
they say oh but we're changing quarterbacks voluntarily like
yeah, that's like a different. That's a modern thing that
didn't used to happen in the NFL 10 years ago.
Yeah and how often you see a guy like Debo have the season that
he did and then people are kind of like well yeah I guess like s
fine. Yeah it and that was another
thing I want to ask you about Sean because another thing
that's been super fun. This year is You know, you've
done FPC, baseball stuff for a while but this year you really
have dove into the underdog streets as well.
And I know even early on and we get it around here to people get
mad at us. When we're not just pissing
yellow rip in five straight wide receivers at every draft.
You start with a couple running backs.
I know a lot of Roto visitors were like, hey Shawn, why are
you doing all these hyper fragile Bill builds play the
hits? I mean will you talk about that
Dynamic? Do you think it has changed now
as we've gotten into August? How different are you
approaching things? From a season-long perspective
because you were really willing to stack, you know, some of
those running backs early at least earlier in the offseason.
Yeah, I think that they're I mean there are some scoring
formats and ATP developments that strongly incentivize you to
at least consider some hyper fragile builds and hopefully
it's comforting / encouraging for roudabeh subscribers and OT
stealing, bananas listeners, people who might be considering
subscribing. And I've heard a row tab is only
in the Of those guys are kind of crazy, there's going to do 0 RV,
regardless of what happens to know that it's not, this
dogmatic approach and it's not an approach without flexibility
or that we're not looking for. The best opportunities in any
given year in any given format and, or that, you know, we're
not willing to provide Intel and insights for drafters who do
want to go a little bit different direction because when
the obviously, not, everybody just wants to dress, you are be
all the time this year. Has this really cool Dynamic
where Drafters are very justifiably scared of the dead
zone for running backs and yet because of that and because we
have some potential break out guys and players like etn and
Hall and Dobbins and Acres. You can put those guys together
on a team and especially I think if you put them on a team with
Taylor and McCaffrey There are scenarios that could play out to
where you then have an unbeatable super team, right?
And again, in some specific formats, you have to consider
doing that. Especially if you think that you
can Draft receivers, well the rest of the way.
Now, one of the things with a 0 RB approach is that you you
don't ever give up on evaluating all of the breakout wide
receivers. One of the things that we talked
about a lot and talked about through the years, is that even
with the 0r B builds, you need to have breakout receivers.
Not just established stars and then you know there are some
some players in the double-digit rounds who I think are good
values at wide receiver. Now it doesn't change the
dynamic. The wide receiver is shallower
than people think that it is and obviously if you do an OT
listener the Agora ship chasing League.
You find out very quickly how shallow wide receiver is But I
do like to have some of those draft.
I do like running backs, right? I mean, they're going to be some
running backs who were just so much fun to root for if you have
a format and an ATP environment in which you can have exposure
to those guys, then I'm not just that's a really cool
development. At the same time I'm currently
in the Apex experts league and I did not draft a wide receiver
running back in the first nine rounds.
So, Still some extreme 0r B plays out.
There it is interesting because like I do agree.
The dead zone is like maybe a little less dead.
Like I think, you know, three, four years ago Josh Jacobs and
Tony Gibson. David Montgomery would probably
be going like around the head of where they are maybe around and
a half but I feel like there's still a mean sometimes in these
Underdog drop some stuff they'll fall basically the seventh
eighth round truly Out Of The Dead Zone but You know, there's
still generally hanging around in those rounds and then like
Joe Mixon still a feature of the one to turn which makes feels
like very 2019 to me. So it's like it things have
changed but they haven't changed completely.
Yeah, and that was one thing. I also had been feeling and I
think I brought this up on our show last week, we're in
previous years. Conventional wisdom was,
everyone gobbles up, the running backs, they push these Elite
wide receivers down to the back end of the first and second
round. And one thing you always talked
about Sean, that was kind of just burned into my head.
Was this idea of like you don't want to just draft a
watered-down version of the team from the 101 slot and then push
really good wide receivers down to them on the back end.
And I feel like the dynamic is different.
Went this year, were its flipped where I'm like I'm sometimes
staring at CD lamb and I'm like, I feel like I'm just drafting a
watered-down version of the money Jamar, Jason Cooper Cup
team and you know, because having a swaggins, you dudes
about to add T Higgins, or Devo, Samuel and a slider AJ Brown and
so that that's why I've been more willing and open to like,
yeah, let's go for Swift. Let's go for Berkeley.
Let's find one of Pat's running backs that has legendary upside
in this range because that's the only way I feel like I can
combat those teams. Do you, are you feeling that?
Dynamic. Yes.
And no for a long time I was and that was another reason that was
doing a lot of either anchor, R&B or hyper fragile.
I mean, especially when Barclays price was just crazy.
Now there was a month there, I took Berkeley and basically
every draft because number one, you're thinking.
I mean he has that legendary upside and so you want that
player really at any price and then number two, you're thinking
I'm just going to get so much more expensive.
If I'm going to buy them in a by now because I even though I
think he's a good value at 203, I'm gonna be competing with a
lot of teams who took him with the 305 and so maybe from that
perspective. But again I mean you're going to
get other pics. You can't simply stay away from
a guy because somebody else got into the better value but I have
been coming around a little bit to the idea that A digs a little
bit but Davante Adams he's a, he's a fun one because probably
he falls off quite a bit but one of the things to remember with
him so you could fall off quite a bit and still be a pretty good
player at the ones who turn and then lamb.
Now with how things of really kind of imploded in Dallas, I
don't do a lot of playing volume at wide receiver, but if you do
think that there's a guy who has star potential, and one of the
weird things about how, uh, season played out is it almost
seemed to go out of their way to Not throw him the ball.
So they could show that Amari Cooper is still a legitimate NFL
player and they could do this. That nothing but paid off, they
get a sixth-round pick for I mean that was like what
happened? I remember with Des back in the
day, right? I remember having Dez Bryant on
my fantasy team and watch him and they just let him just be on
an island the entire game and Tony Romo's not throat.
Oh, you're like, why are you not getting this incredible?
Playmaker the ball. It did feel like that we see
limit. It's funny that I brought up the
CD lamb example because I was trying to pull up the Apex
League Draft. You were just referencing here
where you did go full yellow here or I guess green on my
fantasy league. But you did do the lamb, Adam
starts And this is obviously a wide receiver friendly format,
but it seemed like you were completely willing.
Like, what, what made you pass on?
You know, a bar, clear Swift in this situation.
Whereas you might not in other draft rooms.
The funnier one is when we're doing a recording yesterday that
maybe doesn't come out till later, but are maybe it was even
on the recording. But he was talking about his
pick at 8 of to and use think of the might have to take David
Montgomery and then he took Rondo.
Moreover, David So good. I mean, you can never live with
yourself if you took Stephen Montgomery over on, do more that
we go, sir. Listen, I just to be clear
though, this, this leap is not have special teams touchdowns as
far as murder. Yeah, so I mean I do wish that
deante Johnson, maybe wasn't the 311.
Although again, I mean his Target profile at that price is
pretty crazy. This draft has created a lot of
value at running back and so one of the things that I wanted to
play was number one, I haven't had enough wide receiver
Firepower in this league because of injuries the past several
years. I didn't want that to happen.
Again, number two, I was expecting the potential to get
players like etn Hall Dobbins at good prices.
That didn't exactly work out the way.
I was hoping Mike Brody, who runs Apex had the pick right
before me. He and I have similar boards.
He's dominated this league through the years and so I mean
obviously took the happens there a spot before I would have taken
him out of like had that. So a little bit of it was sort
of drafting back to front. Perhaps thought there were going
to be some different players there.
But looking at it and this is one of the things that you see,
if you pull up the range of outcomes to lure you pull up the
win, the flex tool, Obviously the range of outcomes has
historical matches. Gives you a sense of the range
of how those guys have done then in yours after that.
The when the flex gives you implied points by ATP based on
historical outcomes, both of those would tell you that the
receivers there are still likely to score more points.
And so from that perspective, and in part, because I just do
have a lot of Swift on. I have a lot of Berkeley from,
as the season has progressed. I wanted to go with lands flam.
Atoms, they're a little bit too in preparation, for some These
main events that are coming up because I think in the main
events it's going to make a lot of sense to have some of those
builds. And so you know it is always
helps to go through and draft some of those teams, see how you
feel about them. Make sure that, you know how you
want it to work out, you can make some changes before you
have two thousand dollar league for a million dollars and maybe
don't execute your draft the way you want.
You think you're going to have a lot of lambs app and lamb Adams.
That gets back to Pete's question before about, you know,
how to attack the end of the first round and well how do you
feel about that relative to cup Jefferson Chase, getting AJ
brown or whoever as their second receiver?
It feels like those two receivers took again to Pete's
questions the physicals two receivers are gonna Crush
slamming atoms. I think it's likely.
And yet at the same time, one of the things that I do like this
year that I don't think was the dynamic last year, even though
it worked out very positively. Because obviously Jonathan,
Taylor is in that range, you know, we had a lot of him, he
crushed, Christian McCaffrey gets hurt, and so suddenly, this
huge Advantage for early drafters that appeared to be
there disappeared instantly and that's always a good sort of
reminder of how Dynamic these seasons are how chaotic they
are. You don't want to just assume
that things are going to happen and or that you know more than
you know when we obviously don't know how the season is going to
progress for the exact reasons that you guys mentioned.
I think that we're moving in the direction of those cup Jefferson
Chase teams. Maybe not having quite the
advantage. It seems like because there are
some risks with Debo. Especially with Brandon, I you
could theoretically having just a spectacular There are risks.
I mean, there are risks with Tyree kill.
I really actually prefer to play that through Jalen waddle
because of the discount. There are I mean I think you
have too drafty Higgins. I would draft him earlier, but
because of Chase there and because of boy, there you do
have some potential limitations and then AJ Brown, again here
this year, don't do it. We won't even mention a player,
but the other one. Well, do it Shawn.
As soon as it's Devonte, Smith gets back from this groin
injury. We're going to see I mean, who
the one a and who the one B is right?
Then dealing signals canceled. Can I Who obviously enough PC is
not going to be on the back half of this board, but you know, you
look at FPC last year, he's like the 102 103 and now he's the
106. I think Pete my and each of our
FTC preservers Joe's drafts, got him at the 106.
And in, you know, Underdog kind of PPR drafts.
You are seeing Chelsea Kane in the 108 through like 110 type of
range, maybe even a little later.
So I don't know, he feels like obviously, he's his eight out.
Dropped last year is efficiency dropped his 133.
So there's a lot of risk there, but I mean he has very little
tart competition. Potentially think there are
scenarios where the offense is just flowing through Travis
Kelce. The same time, you do get
sometimes pits coming back in the third sometimes kiddo falls
back, depending on where you are.
You know, you do have a shot at killing like the 107 108.
Eight in the fifth round. So and you can obviously get
Waller if you like in the fourth.
So there's like a ton of other options at tight end but he I
think could be one of the hinge points.
Yeah, then I started Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce last night,
drafted Kelsey at the 2003 and so he obviously is sliding in
some non-premium formats I guess I'm looking at the other
direction. This is probably due to Growing
Up in Kansas City and being a pretty big cheese fan.
So every time that, you know, when the nvs is dominating OTAs
reports, you know, I'm Like well they're going to have at least
one guy when training camp starts and JuJu is like his 21
year old self. Like okay, we have two and then
Sky Moore is back from The injuries that limited a little
bit in the offseason work and obviously if he's going to have
a ship chasing highlight. Now, you've got three.
You have Nicole hardening who evidently is, still on the
roster and made a big play, the other day, you've got four.
So I think there's more Target competition than there was in
the past and protect perhaps substantially more.
At the same time I think Mark Andrews and Kyle pits are
unbelievable plays at tight end and so especially if you can
take one of the first rounders and then one of Two guys as
opposed to Kelsey and having drop down into round 2.
I do like to play it that way. Yeah.
Yeah, that make that make sense. And we go ahead.
Ben, we were bombed. We took Kelsey at 203 and we're
happy to take it, but then our discussion was pits comes back.
We're going to be annoyed and he made it, he made it all the way
back to the end of the third. And whenever you that happens
that happens a lot. Every time I'm in a draft and I
take Kelsey pitches there. And every time I don't take
calcium is not there, it's so frustrating.
But I think there was a period where I was taking a lot of
Travis Kelsey. And I basically stopped because
Pitts was so reliably falling to the end of the third round and
drafts that I was just going to wait for him and actually, you
know, the where Kittles going. I have probably a little less
Mark Andrews than I'd like to because you're like at the, you
know, the one of four something kiddos pretty safe to get back
to you at the 504. So he's another, I mean, there's
lots of uncertainty in San Francisco and Competition there
as well. But I mean fifth round Kittles
hard for me to pass on shot. Had some good notes on.
Got me a little more excited about Kettle.
Your of quartered I think I mentioned already or maybe not
but we were going to three episodes of silly bananas
yesterday or producer, cam Kelly's heading to the FF Expo.
So he got a bunch of stuff prepared for us.
One of them centered almost entirely on the font.
The top five tight ends, which I think Chum, we both agree.
Right? Is just like, I think it's the
most like important. Part of drafts this year, I
think it's like super, super important to get.
Right? And its super nuanced and
interesting and I've talked to a few guys, Pat and Pete about
It's weird because they're at tight end.
There's not a lot of names there.
The clear sort of like top, five Elite ones, but they also
stretch throughout different tiers of receiver.
And if you think of them, sort of, in those receiver tears,
they're all kind of in their own tears.
I've gotten to the point where I think pits and Andrews are sort
of the same tier or like a half step down from Kelsey.
I think it's like a full tear down to Waller and Kettle and I
was describing that as being sort of a half step apart.
I think Shawn got me excited enough on kill to move him back,
not I How you value those five because they do have different
price points attached, as well as really going to determine
whether you're willing to gamble on waiting on Waller and Kittle,
or even the decision we had last night whether to take, you know,
Kelsey at 203 or gamble on pits all but Elite tight end.
Seems super super important. This your son just said, like
the top three for me for some people, it's more top 5, but
those guys there's not much good profiles at the position after
that. At this here, it's a thin it's a
thin position profile wise, not just that it plays out then
which it always kind of does. But there's just not a lot of
white, frankly after the top five, what are your thoughts?
Sean on and anyone who's been listening to stealing?
Bananas knows how hyped you are on Kyle pits.
But let's talk about Waller and kittel because they seem there
seems to be like this conflict here of a lot of people like us
really prefer the structural Edge.
Having that Elite tight end. But there is somewhat of a
discrepancy. I feel like in the atp's of
kettle and Waller, and it's not just on Underdog, whereas Chris
G points out in the chat kittel, sometimes falls into the 60s
which I've seen as well. It's also playing out to a
lesser extent on ffp, see where we were able to get Waller and
one of our main events at 311, which seems like an absurd price
tag for what he offers you. Like we go to 402 on the way
back around. I think we took AJ Brown at the
311 and steal your wallet. Right there at the 402.
Yeah, I completely forgot on that Apex draft.
We're talking about this to he got killed at 6:02.
I mean, why does look at the draft, but that's crazy.
What do you make of that? Sean?
Because to me specifically on Underdog to where, the way that
tournament is structured with those individual tournaments in
week 15, 16 17, like the ceiling that those guys offer you in the
separation. I mean you can go look at
Kittles game logs like the dude can put up 40 and just lap the
feel. But I guess maybe it's a little
bit of a different calculus in a week 15 through 17 Sprint.
But I guess like, what are your thoughts on Waller?
Kittle and why the market isn't? Maybe valuing them quite as much
as we are. One of the things you talked
about the underdog tournament and how that plays out and just
how inexpensive, so many the tight ends are.
And so you do feel this push to wait, because you can get guys
that you can talk yourself into a, not just one, but three, if
you want to play it that way, when there are a lot of bills,
that really to tight end as much much stronger.
But if you're going to get three guys, you like like deep into
the double digit rounds, you're going to feel some push to do
that. And there is that pressure on
Kelsey at his Nice to have, just an absolutely Mammoth season.
And yet, at the same time, one of the things that you see, is
that he can have a very low at playoff Advance, rate, and still
have a high semi-final, or final Advanced rate.
Because he has one of those big games and everybody who stole
left, who has him moves on. And so, from that perspective,
you have a trump card. I mean, imagine a season in
which, you know, he actually does put up enough to have a
solid playoff Advance rate as well, and that's kind of what
we're going for with a handful of these guys Waller is
interesting, because again, Just have that huge uncertainty of
the new coach. And so I kind of wanted to ask
you guys what you think and we've had some very conflicting
reports about the Patriots on the one hand you here, okay.
The simpler more streamlined offense is helping these guys
play faster. You have the reports that
they're getting just, you know, absolutely dominated by their
defense which when their defense is good.
And so being dominated by the Patriots defense in practice is
probably not as bad as being dominated by Some other ones but
I mean the Patriots could really suffer from losing McDaniels at
the same time. I mean are the Raiders going to
be able to really execute his offense this year?
Or is it more a 2023? Target for those guys.
But I mean, you hope it's not 2023 because don't want to Adams
and Darren Waller are not spring chickens.
I mean, they need to be good this year and so I think having
Davante Adams there. I'm a pretty big Derek Carr,
believer. I don't think he's a superstar
but I think he's an above-average QB.
I think if they want to attack and play through their better
players as opposed to trying to show people that, oh we kind of
run out five, different running backs and have them all, touch
the ball five times. And we can somehow move the ball
down in three are chunks if they go out and use their good
players, the fact that you had Davante Adams means that during
Waller should be completely uncover Ball by defense isn't so
you have the potential for some huge games.
And again, just that potential. If you draft the rest of your
team, well, enough to survive some Growing Pains or survive.
The fact that you used in early pick on a tight end part of the
using the tight end is a belief in your ability.
Leti to execute the rest of the draft, right?
But if you do that and then you have that powerful team and in
the playoffs you get one of these big games from a waller or
a Kindle or app, it's a member of that group.
You completely separated yourself from any team that went
with the three late Titans. My issue with the Raiders is
offensive line. I feel like in terms of the
complexity offense like maybe maybe that could be an issue.
But, I mean car, this he had mastered Gruden's offense which
is like needlessly complex. So I feel like he's he's
probably capable of getting their commodity items,
obviously, isn't it? Just spider 2, y banana, just
call that repeatedly. It sounds like there's Maybe.
It more flexibility built into this offense, which is, which is
nice. And then yeah, I mean Davante
Adams, I feel like, you know, he's like super, super hard
working guy like, I feel like he'll be fine adapting to the
new offense. Renfro's got the chemistry while
he's got the chemistry already with car, but man that offensive
line, it was bad last year. It doesn't seem like there's
really like any paths to it, making a huge leap.
And so that concerns me in terms of the passing volume, like
good. Then just kind of Being more
conservative may be similar to some of the stuff we were seeing
last year at the Bangles where they just weren't opening it up
the way we wanted to. And it was getting very
frustrated because you kind of see this offense is capable of a
lot more than obviously. You know, we did get that the
very own the season but I guess that would be maybe the bigger
concern I have, then then then getting on the same page in the
McDaniels offense. Yeah, but do you think Sean like
our is it still your preference in Main Event?
Drafts football, guys. Drafts any of these tight end
premium to get one of those top five tight ends.
Or are you open to configurations?
Think there might be an opportunity cost at some of
those spots and you're willing to play it through some of those
guys cheaper. Well let's try and make sure I
don't put myself into a position where I feel like I have to take
a certain player. I have to use a certain build, I
mean, there are going to be some circumstances that come up and I
think that man killed both excites and scares me in that.
When you have three potentially lead pass, catchers in a offense
that could be extremely low volume, and I just hate not
being on Samuel or not being on Kindle.
And I've dropped a ton of Samuel.
Sounds like I'm not on him, but it really does force you to just
move away from the risk, and look at someone like an IU.
If he's, you know, theoretically developing because then you have
both the positive and you've minimized to risk that they just
don't have the passing volume there.
And if If it turns out that the passing volume is there or Lance
is just extremely efficient than you win that way too because you
know now you have both things. So so don't want to force myself
into it, but I don't think that we're in a position where
Andrews and Pips prices in the other options.
There may be. One of the things is that yeah,
I mean Swift and Berkeley very compelling picks in round two
but other than them, I mean you don't have anybody you have to
get. And so you're just going to end
up with a lot of Andrews and pits at the same time.
No offense out there. Then knows that the Seahawks are
going to take this big step. Lord.
And after Pat's guy has been the, I mean the player of the
entire offseason, we're finally getting some Alberto reports and
the fact that the Broncos have now practiced and seen that he
may be the best identical either moving around because I got a
clear the tight end spot for Greggy, dulcich.
Well, let me let me try to nail you down on more specific Shawn
and I have pulled Up here. And this is an awesome tool on
road of, is, by the way, they just have this ATP.
Drafted, I obviously have it filtered two, main events, but
if you are preparing for these drafts, it's really nice to be
able to see these pockets of the draft.
And once, you know, your job drafts lat, you can really start
to plan ahead. And I do think, you know, when
you're drafting from like six on in the back half you can see
here, it's actually a pretty sweet spot to have all these
different cracks at these tight ends.
I actually think you could make a case that from the one and two
spot. It's actually a little harder
because Kelsey's, not making it back to you.
Mark Andrews isn't making it back to you.
Pits isn't making it back to you.
And then you have to make the decision.
Do I reach for Waller here at 31?
Because then Waller and Kettle aren't going to make it back and
outside of extreme examples. So like that would be a good
example here. Sean, if you're able to start,
you know, with Christian McCaffrey T Higgins is like,
Darren Waller priority at 32 or is this a spot where you are
letting him go knowing like, I'm not going to get one of these
top five tight ends. Yeah, I think that you have to
strongly consider that certainly, if you are a big T,
Higgins, believer, then I think that you probably have to pass.
And thankfully there is this dynamic because otherwise
someone with a top five pick, just how such a huge Edge
because you have five guys. And then, I mean, you have
basically everybody else more or less Council.
The second round pick. So you're so far behind if you
don't have a top five pick this. Tight end Dynamic does balance
that out. Yeah, I know we, I know we were
sweating in some drafts and in that same wall or draft, where
we got him at 402, kittel did slide far and we were sweating
bullets of the, you know, the 101 team who had a nice build
going being able to get kid'll. It just seemed almost unfair at
that point. They're able to kind of add that
that tight end piece there. And you can see the dynamic to
there with it really pulling Dalton folds up because at the
if you have the one, two, three, all of those teams are going to
be seriously considering Either end of the, for beginning of 5,
just to make sure they have somebody to try and compete with
those top guys. Where are you at on that next
here? Because that's yeah to me the
way I'm handling it is I'm not taking I'm not taking much
Schultz, I'm not taking much TJ Hawkinson.
How I know you like Sean, I take some ghadir I don't take much to
knock. So don't take really any Zach
ertz so I'm kind of sitting out and then I actually don't love
the next tier. Of guys either so part of the
reason I think I'm So Into the elite tight ends this year.
It's like, yeah, Irv Smith, you know, Pat fire moves, like these
guys are interesting, but they don't feel like that much better
than Gerald Everett, or Noah fans, you know?
So, I just did that point. I feel like now, I'm paying like
a premium to pick pick a guy from the same.
Large tear. And I'd rather just wait again.
So if I don't have an elite, identify myself, waiting a lot,
but I know, Oh you you probably feel more bullish on some of the
guys, I mentioned, well, I do like Hawkinson and I'm always
trying to get then on board with cherry goth.
But, yeah, I mean there's that's an offense that I think is gonna
have a lot of Target pressure. I think that they have a lot of
weapons now. And so you look at Hawkinson
that could help him, I always try and point out that last
season. When his efficiency was not what
you want from a guy, who's going to be drafted as a borderline
Elite tight end, that's when he's being triple team and he's
got two injuries, right? And so it doesn't really matter
how good you are when you're dealing with that circumstance,
here efficiency is going to be poor whether or not things.
Like shifts so far to the opposite end of the Spectrum.
In terms of the target pressure is kind of a different story.
I think that you do have to then wait and it's not that every
season is going to be just like the last, but we do have quite a
bit of evidence that draft hers who missed the elite tight ends.
And then Chase don't do well. And so once you get out of that
top range, I think that you have to prioritize players, like Cole
commit by Alberto, like, no offense, it doesn't seem like
your elaborate is Generating any can't Buzz, which is
disappointing for me because I do have a lot of him, but he
would be a possibility. And then I think that drafting
the rookies at the very end and just stashing them for a bit and
seeing how it plays out obviously.
Dosage. Now, a little bit of a pause
maybe in the buzz train McBride, you're going to benefit because
I don't believe that he's practicing a little bit of a
sore back. That kind of thing is a mild
concern. If you are actually some help
putting yourself in a position where you would need to start
them at the beginning of the year.
But even though it can be frustrating, there is this
benefit to having some of your targets miss a little bit of
practice or not. Just be Like 75% of NFL players
right now are having a fantastic Camp.
If you can have some of your Targets in that 25%, that's not
being talked about, you just get a lot of their value.
Speaking of, where are you at on trail and Burks?
Then tells me he's going to be an absolutely Gwen are going to
easily lead the Titans night. It seemed like there were a
couple days in there where the beat writers and folks covering
the team had gotten a lot more optimistic.
And that's a very quick U-turn again.
I think that that's great right because if you look at Berks as
a prospect, if you look at Berks in terms of the opportunity, in
this offense, he should be going in the fifth round.
The fact that he's much less expensive because he's having a
little bit of a slower start. This isn't anything like Jamar
Chase having drops because he's not anything close to Jamar
Chase, but these rookie wide receivers and the way that this
is developed over the last three years.
The impact the rookie. These are making if you could
have a guy who has a bad camp and is a big-time player that's
a gift. And I mean, you have to take
advantage of at least some, right?
You have to put yourself in a position where you're drafting
teams that can afford some of those misses.
Because if you're drafting teams to where you can't take those
risks, I mean, you're not going to win the whole thing.
It just, it just doesn't work that way.
And that's that's something I've been thinking about a lot to
adjust atp's in All in how they are getting more efficient.
But the two ways that they're really efficient is one in
people's ability to kind of project season-long performance
over the cross over the course of 17 seasons and often waiting
beginning of season performance even more than end of season
performance and then to news-based stop, like drafters
now are so plug. In there is no information Edge
on any any of these drafters. All right, I actually disagree
with that. I've been kind of, I've been
interested because there's been periods of the offseason warm
like, oh, this is priced in. And then it turns out to have
not been priced in like Isaiah MacKenzie's, the one that comes
to mind were like James crowd was going ahead of him in the
12th round or whatever. Mackenzie the seventeenth
eighteenth round pick. And Mackenzie was running with
the starters, all of OTAs all minicamp.
And then finally, like it kind of cracked through, there was
like enough of a blurb there was like an informational shift.
But I do think you can kind of how grind The public's like a
little bit. Yeah.
But like that's I think that's splitting hairs to My overall
point of like you see a teepee move in conjunction with these
news. Like you get those reports and
that stuff, shifts accordingly, we can argue about it, being too
slow, like the same things going to happen with JK Dobbins.
Like JT a goblin should be a late fourth round pick right
now. It's going to take about seven
or eight more days, but he'll get there.
But like my overall point was that, if you can have conviction
and this is something I early on.
In the offseason, I was more Tethered to a ATP and didn't
have quite as much conviction in some of my player takes.
And now though it does really seem like that is where you get
the edge of where you are able to focus on that late-season
production and these profiles that actually have the chance to
cut through the noise of the current news cycle and median
season-long projections like is that where you feel and
obviously structure which we feel strongly about as well.
But to me that the betting on those profiles and kind of
sifting through that noise is really where the edges, right?
Now. yeah, it it's especially strange I think when 2022 has
had this sort of global shift otherwise, in terms of focusing,
You know, I would argue. Occasionally to the detriment of
draft or certainly. And we will probably talk about
this later, but focusing so much on week. 16 and 17 that you
build teams that just over the course of the season your
playoff Advance rate regardless of if you're in a redraft type
of format or a best ball type of format is going to be
dramatically lower than if you didn't have that in mind.
There are some elements of focusing on week 16 and week 17
that can give you a huge advantage.
And so obviously you want to take those and and kind of
walking that tightrope is tricky.
But the part that's not tricky is the fact that at the same
time that we're doing that, to be in this news environment
where small developments in practice and not even the
developments but how they reported on move prices so much.
The thing that we've been talking about for years now is
that if there's one thing you can do to make yourself better
at Fantasy Football, it's to try and wipe from your mind week,
one workloads. Yeah.
And yet now it's driving prices even more.
And so if you can somehow force yourself to, Not do that within
this news environment. I think you get number one, you
get even better prices, but then you're going to be on some, you
know, over all types of teams that not many other people are
on. And, you know, we're talking
about uniqueness and how important that is.
They're just so many different advantages, right?
Because number one, you're building a better team.
Number two, You're Building A Team.
A lot of other people are building.
And so, Following the news is a real Adventure because you there
are things that happen in practice that you do want to
know, when you do want to factor into how you're thinking about
players. But it's important that it's not
just week one or week to and that's one of the things that
has been fun about doing these drafts with Ben's that he is
very willing to go after these guys that we like and not worry
about what came out yesterday. About Trail on Burks, you know,
we still taken and you know, I think our teams are going to be
better for that, maybe. We still take care of them
Burgers. Yeah.
That's I was think I had that
thought the other day, too. And I was thinking about, it's
like even if you concede that there are some actionable
nuggets Within These training camp preseason nuggets, all of
this stuff. Even if you concede, that those
are most actionable for the first few weeks of the season,
right? Like, even that information, if
it's gold, it's gold for the beginning of the Season where
the team's intention start out, how they want to deploy those
guys initially, it doesn't factor in the chaos of the In
the type of profiles that normally blow up, down the
stretch where we're all trying to optimize for, like, you can
push it out Beyond week, 17, you can push it out Beyond weeks, 15
through 17. You can even push it out to week
10, but still, I care way more about week, 10 and on, then I do
week one. And that's like, where it really
hits. You how much noise there is?
Where? It's like, even if you're right,
you're right for the first half of the Season, most likely.
Well, I mean, yes, there's momentum and inertia and maybe
guys hold roles throughout the whole season but it's not the
information that's actually helping us.
When leaks, I think I hear exactly what you're saying and
that's a good point. I also think this is really in
your from the perspective of all the changes I was talking about
earlier and the whole offseason, some of the news I'm really
interested in because we just have such unsettled teams and we
have kind of no idea what these teams are going to how they're
going to look. And it's like, okay if we get
any kind of more actionable, guess or better guess or
something. But it is tough because Sean
human saying, in a lot of our shows like seems like every
player in the league is The best player on his team right now and
so it's just everything except for Ronald Jones.
Except there's actually been some undercover bullish stuff on
Ronald Jones but the people won't report it.
Ian Hart has had a good sweet today.
Showing that there's a video of world Champs doing.
Well, in past prone, I had like five years and there's a video
of Pacheco. Crushing pass pro at like
100,000 slaves, you cause you shared the same same camera
angle. Same same.
We person tweeted both, right? Yeah.
Things that go one went viral retweeted by the same account
like is all. Yeah, one goes viral ones.
Like no one to say it but I did want to bring up break room
here. Brought up oh yes, show.
This is funny for this is yes, the same one here, Ronald Jones,
6K views, CH 10K views, Isaiah Pacheco. 170,000, that's
incredible. But that is like the larger.
I feel like that's A microcosm of the larger news environment
right now, where there's some stuff I really do feel like is
going under the radar break room bring up Eno Benjamin.
I feel like it's perfect, kind of Confluence of everything,
right? It's a profile.
That relative is identified before he played in NFL, snap
and has been betting on this entire time.
The news is saying he's actually the number two guy.
And but it hasn't broken through Darryl Williams is still going
ahead of, you know, venturing and let's hope it doesn't open.
Oh well, that report was also a reply to someone to that tweet
that I shared with you like that, was it like full even
getting blasted everywhere? Has roto world run with that
yet? I'm not sure we might need to.
I might need to dig around. I'm on shift tomorrow.
My need to dig around and blow up the, you know, it cleared
Reno and tonight guys because I might blow it up tomorrow, but I
mean there is nothing to what they're worth.
With Row. Joe though is he's like I don't
know why we're doing this drill when it's in the game I'm going
to pick up the wrong. Guy shot.
You have a different body bags. All of our favorite players.
That's what this young knows what's happening here.
We're trying to get Road showed around 60 by the end of the
month. Sean, do you have any cardinals
until I feel like Cardinals are pretty underreported team there
like like you know? Almost kind of like like a
state-run government, the Cardinals.
They don't have any like, independent reporters.
I feel like the number-one beat, right.
I think works like for the team so it doesn't they don't feel
like they have this robust Independent News organization in
the area, what's going on? Yeah, I don't know, but as you
mentioned and as the listeners are mentioning with, he know I
drafted him in round 17 or 18 every draft and then and I were
doing a draft. Point where we couldn't decide
on a player. And so, just like, you have to
draft, you know what, every draft will just take him around.
16, this time and every draft Darryl Williams has been like
three rounds earlier. And so every day I go and look
and try and figure out it's like did something change in the last
day? Is it a situation where, you
know, is not the clear cut back up with coaches and teammates
saying that he actually looks like he could be the starter
Her. And when you think about James
Conner, he's a really cool guy, right?
He's high-value touch star. He is a good receiver.
Nobody makes one hand catches like, him with the running back
position, he's got a great nose for the goal line.
He's been this guy who can have the really high Rush, EP receive
EP levels. I think he's undervalued and
drafts. Well, yeah, last year, I mean,
yeah, huge, so we love it right? But I mean if you're going to go
watch them practice. It's side-by-side.
I mean, the team is watching, you know, Benjamin is through
the line and 25 yards down the field.
While James Conner is still like You know, two yards and I'm
still gonna be fine. That's what I'm going for.
You been going to practices shot.
Are you an Arizona betray boots on the ground?
If shot had a pen name and he writes for some paper called,
like the Arizona Gazette and covers the tea like that
wouldn't surprise me at all. That would actually give him
Sean's reaction. I'm now convinced that is what's
going on. You're gonna have to convince
me. You're not a Cardinals Cannon,
household that Tweet back up is up.
Yeah, a real person or is that how shots?
But don't wait a second. It is Blake.
Allen Murphy actually shod seagull zoom in on the picture.
Oh yeah this is you do. This isn't even a this is a
caricature artist. It is.
Yeah, that's it. Got a caricature artist
patients, all right, Josh also I don't even know if this guy has
credentials either, we're taking his tweet as gospel.
So there's that. But seriously Charles, where are
you getting this? Intel on watching Dino Run to
Daylight That practice? No.
I just They it's just dream not sure which one it is sometime
between midnight and feel like a dog Shawn.
I felt like a little bit of a Dodge every article about, you
know, Benjamin features. Reference to the angry touchdown
run, and I don't know. I'm just going back to last
season. How good?
He looked? How good Chase Edmunds looked
and I mean, you never hope that anybody gets hurt.
And it was, it was very unfortunate because Edmonds, was
having a year, hopefully I'll have a good year with the
dolphins. But, you know, you watch the
first half of the season and you're like there's just no way
that Connor actually fights into this because The difference in
speed and the a difference in explosiveness, through the line
was, like the biggest Gap in the entire NFL, between two running
backs on the same team. And so you look at that and you
look at the Cardinals and how much value they create for the
running back position. You have to have exposure, may
even if he falls into a situation where there is a
committee with Williams, you know, something should happen to
Conner. I mean, those guys are in score
points. And I do think even like looking
at I mean, James Garner was good all year and he was, you know,
getting all those high-value touches but when he really
started getting involved in the passing game was when Chase
Edmunds went down and I feel like we see this play out.
A lot of times with organizations.
We're having that like one Bell cow back isn't actually exactly
what they'd want to do in a perfect world.
But when push comes to shove in the Personnel, isn't there, they
are going to rely on the guy they trust the most, but if they
cut it into the season with Newfound, Trust for, you know,
Benjamin which it sounds like, is there and they bring in
Darrell Williams in free agency. Like I think, hoping that James
Conner does just have the Bell cow role he had down.
The stretch is, is pretty naive. And then I guess the question is
how much of that is already baked into his ATP base?
When I'm on the clock, I'm only taking him a fraction of the
time. So I feel like it's still a
touch too expensive for me but I'm with you.
Like now that we continue to get this drum beat on E, know the
price gap between them is just so massive that it's almost
impossible for Me to click James Conner when you can play it in
that other direction and for anyone who thinks we've done
this with, you know, for so long.
Because you know, obviously we drop the, you know, the last
couple years and that's I think one of the biggest pushbacks is
like, well, we've already been burned on, you know, multiple
times. I mean he was a 21 year-old
rookie. He's only 23 now.
It's like Richard weitz 23, and he was a seventh-round pick who
has made it through now. Three off seasons made You know,
made the team his first year made it through a second.
Offseason made it through another offseason, as part of
the organization, they never caught him.
Not all seventh, round picks. I mean, not all fifth round
picks, make it, make it to the third season on the same roster
that isn't in and of itself, I mean he did have the big draft,
they fall. Well, a lot of us a couple years
ago were expecting him to go a lot higher, hoping he would go,
you know, maybe even day to week Falls all the way to round
seven. It was a player Prospect.
Why is everyone like But when you're a seventh-round pick in
your, you know, you're sticking for three years.
I think that is relevant enough in itself.
Well, this is all tough piece stuff too, but you listened to
his teammates and you hear them, say things about how harder
worker is and for, you know, all of the traffickers who have been
burned by Roadshow and the pass protection stuff whether it's
relevant or not. One of the things that they've
said about Benjamin is that he's continued to work in gotten
better and he could not pass block before he can.
Now one of the Things about him is he's a good receiver and so
if he can be out there on those types of snaps, you have three
down upside again, in an offense that just creates so many points
for running backs. And I took the Darryl Williams
signing is an indication that they do want a passing down
back. And we've now gotten, you know,
reports and stuff that that, you know, is in that role.
But I actually, and maybe this is just, you know, kind of
confirmation bias or whatever. But like, I've took that as as
kind of a positive sign for Nino or a negative sign for Connor
really, I stopped really kind of drafting Connor after they
signed Darryl because it's like, okay.
If his only path is touchdowns then he's just overpriced.
He had a ton of touchdowns last year, that's why his ATP is,
where it is, if he's losing that passing down, work to either,
you know, or Darrell that's a big problem and now with the
reports are that, it see? No, I feel like, you know,
they've sort of signaled that they have that role in mind.
So there could be some Standalone value there.
Let's uh, let's talk about another team.
That's near and dear to Sean's heart and I do feel like the
ultimate kind of riddle to this season.
I'm starting to write an intro for tomorrow's newsletter about
the Chiefs and outside of Kelsey, how if you could edit,
we talked about this with Davis Matic of the hypothetical.
If you could know the stat line of one player for the entire
2022, season, which player would you pick based on?
What would you be able to do with that information across
other players? And I do feel like that Player
would have to be a Kansas City chief and I think you could
argue for it to be Juju. I think you could argue for it
to be ceh. But just looking at those rooms,
I mean, you can make the case for four wide receivers in four
running backs to leg lead that position group on their team
like after Kelsey. It's so wide open.
So I'm just curious. Sean right now is this a chief
and every draft kind of situation are their price
points. You like better.
How are you thinking about this team that I was just asking
Leone in our chat? I mean, when you add up their
implied team, totals for the entire, Season.
They have the third highest implied team, total of all the
teams. I think it's the bills and I
forget who the other the other team is, but it's like, we know
points are coming here. We just have no clue where
they're coming from. Yeah, I just had an article
coming out today, talking about evolving Cuba atp's, Underdog
and how and just some, you know, at least mildly exploitable
elements to that and how surprising it is to me that the,
a DPS of the Chiefs receivers are rising and Patrick Mahomes.
Continues to fall. And so there's, you know, some
value there for drafters. I would pick Juju in part,
because I'm, he's the only guy, I really have a lot of questions
about and I think that that will determine everything else for
them. Juju, and whether or not he is
washed Determines whether or not Patrick.
Mahoney has finishes as the qb1 or like the qb5 because Travis
Kelce is going to be a star, probably not to the same level
but he's a star Sky. More is going to have a breakout
season whether that happens in week 1, or in week 10, he's
going to be a dynamic player for them.
Mvs is going to be a good complementary, vertical threat.
He's going to have a handful of long touchdowns.
And in those leaks people who have in the best ball or going
to be Just ecstatic, they're going to figure out what to do
with the running back position. I mean, that's the biggest story
line with what's happening in practice.
Is that between those kind of four guys who were in The Mix,
they're going to be able to get something done, right?
If Juju is you know even anywhere in the vicinity of what
he was like pre-injury and obviously they've been raving
about what he can do and how he's excited because he's being
used and all these different formations and situations that
he wasn't in Pittsburgh last couple years.
All that kind of thing. If he's anything close to the
guy he was before, then the Chiefs will score.
The most points in the NFL, they will get the number one seed.
In the AFC, they will distance themselves from this loaded AFC
West. If he's just the guy, it's going
to be a battle all the way to the end.
Where are you at on Pacheco is a prospect?
Because he's a guy where it's like, if you really dig in and
some of the stuff that I like to look at like, you know, it's
Breakaway, percentage sucked, just not didn't really have any
kind of explosive long plays in college.
It's yards per outrun, very bad, actually much worse than Rojo's
was in college. Kind of like a can Kenneth
Walker level yards per hour on wasn't particularly elusive?
Did you know he Didn't have a ton of work.
He's like a committee guy, but even on a per touch basis was
not impressive in terms of breaking tackles yards after
contact. So kind of like every kind of
micro thing. I look at he bombs in but he's
seems like he's going to be the starting kick returner for the
Chiefs, which means he'll be active on game days and he's got
sufficient sizes 216 and he ran a sub 4 40.
So from kind of like just like zoom out a little bit, he's
pretty interesting but you did you have any thoughts on him
just in terms of prospect profile?
Yeah, I mean, it's terrible, right?
I mean, there's a reason that someone with that size speed,
profile gets drafted, where he got drafted.
Now maybe there are some contextual things, you know, he
wasn't playing for Alabama. So you know, maybe there's some
mild explanation there and one of the things that we see when
we go and look at later round picks and you can look at it
from a dynasty perspective or redirect perspective, what have
you the guys who stick around and emerge?
Our players who were wildly productive and for whatever
reason, the NFL didn't believe that was going to translate or
they were players who were freakishly athletic and it's,
it's skewed in favor of The Producers over the athletes.
But there is at least a little bit of potential there.
I mean, even if there is some context to it, not being a great
situation in college, I mean his numbers were just devastatingly
poor, right? And and I think that you always
have to look at the ability of a player to make big plays.
If you can't do it in college, it's going to be difficult at
the NFL level. That was one of the things that
I really tried to argue about David.
Montgomery, is that? Yes, you have these really high
broken tackle numbers, but if you cannot translate into
yardage at the college level, I mean these NFL guys are just so
much better. Now, if you put check with turns
into David Montgomery, obviously you're very, very happy but
there's a Difference in expectations based on on where
those guys go. And so we just, I think have to
keep in context. The fact that he should be
going, at the end of drafts, you should get some exposure to him.
Because if you have a sub for for guy in Kansas City's
offense, you can't not. And yet, I mean, if the main
storyline from all of this is that makes Road.
Joe, cheaper than that's a benefit to everybody.
Where are you? Where are you looking for a job?
Because I, I was taken Row Joe ton.
Okay, and then he falls. I was taken with the 11th round
URLs and then I was like, you know what?
I'm gonna wait, he's going to follow the 12th.
I've got it. I've got my bags packed already.
I want I want my discount, he's fallen to talk.
Now he's fallen to like the 13th, I'm kind of weight and now
I'm kind of the point where I'm like, let me see if I can give
him the late 13th. That'd be kind of fun.
Oh, I've got that pick 160 on. Dog.
Yeah, I take him if he's a pic 150.
I pull the trigger. I don't screw out anymore.
So but maybe that I am kind of going to the point where I'm
like, maybe 150 is not enough. Maybe I need to push it a little
further. So where is that point for you?
Sean? Where you're like, okay now it's
I'm not I'm not asking for any more discount, taking a road
trip well, then and I box ourselves in a little bit.
From a structural perspective at the end of our draft last night,
but I believe we passed on him in the 14th round for Jarvis.
Landry Three and then Jarvis Landry.
It was the other way around. Wasn't that I was drinking a
margarita but I'm pretty sure I wanted Rosio and I was like, we
can't take Jarvis Landry. I'm just like that would take a
Jarvis Landry, wow. Yeah, because I have control of
the clicker and just let the clock always run out after I
asked. So, I've somehow become Jarvis.
Landry is biggest fan on this show and don't even know what
happened. Like twice said that he was a
viable pick it like the 12th round by him for Decided to just
like start tweeting that. I'm like obsessed with Jarvis,
Landry and impact. How did you have to bring that
that pickup of all the picture? I FF underscore Riot?
Be had like pulled some quotes. They're just kind of shining a
light on how the Pacheco stuff had gotten out a little, a
little out of control and curated some of these quotes.
He's a tough kid, be enemy setup Pacheco.
Obviously. We've got a lot of good players
in that room right now. He's doing some good things,
Rojo's doing a heck of a job. He's obviously a big man.
He's done some good things running The football.
The thing that I love about Rodeo every single day he comes
out here and works his tail off. So Pat.
What was the meaning of this? Retweet confirming your priors?
Yeah, I was happy to see someone out there confirming my priors
and the thought they deserved more eyeballs on their work.
That's how many dudes work. It's what, Twitter's for but
that's the thing I want to get Sean's thoughts on with the
rotor stuff. Like the reason for that is not
so much all this Camp hike in particular is getting like some
really big camp. Like it's like a little Jit, the
jit hype, train on Pacheco, but the kick returner stuff, is the
stuff that concerns because I was, by the way, I have a lot of
jerk McKinnon. So, are they carrying four
running backs in the season? Are they, they're going to I
assume healthy scratch 18, even if they do.
So like, I don't know. Shauna are you like this kick
returner stuff? Bother you the same way bothers
me? Because that has me concerned
that the check was not only making the roster he's active on
game days. Yeah, I have a decent amount of
McKinnon but probably in formats where it's not going to hurt me.
If it doesn't work out there, I do think he was so good at the
end of last season. One of the things that the
Chiefs are able to do now and it's nice to be able to balance
out a few of the weird moves that they've made with trading
for players who they were going to.
Then have to pay a lot of money, which you don't really want to
do structurally building your team but they've been able to
add a lot of interesting talented players for very little
Oh, and once you've done that, I don't know why you would turn
around necessarily and cut them. But yeah, the great thing about
Roadshow now, especially in redraft, it's a little bit
trickier and best of all because it just is so crucial.
If you want to maximize your playoff, Advanced rates among or
across a very large number of teams, you just don't want to be
burning those roster spots, right?
You just get so few, you can't burn it, but in redraft, I mean,
you have to buy Roadshow in every League because his price
right now is fine if he gets cut.
Right, fine. If you gets cut and you still
have a ton of upside. So I mean, he's going to be
Breaking news. Sorry, we're having a
thunderstorm. No, it's good.
You said Ronald Jones is gonna be and we were all waiting with
bated breath. Why?
I saw you guys as Expressions as I was sure.
I was losing you and so I thought it was probably because
I'm frozen he's the most talented player on this team,
right? He's gonna be the guy in the
whole guy. Why I'm on the running backs?
Yes. But Ron Siegel things.
Ronald Joseph more talented. That Patrick homes, the person
who's threatened by this is, is Edwards aware.
And so it's a little bit weird. That his ATP is not crumbling
because we now have just so much evidence that he's just not
going to be able to get the workload, but he would need to
justify where he goes in drafts. The funniest thing about the
Pacheco news is in charges at is that CH is now going higher
because everyone saw the lightning.
Everybody is so Like this is gonna sound like it's, you know,
getting a little defensive particular program but anti-ro
Joe that everyone has read the Pacheco stuff, as anti-ro Joe,
and then people took it the next step and they said, actually the
way that I see the Pacheco stuff is, it's actually good for ce8
because I thought Ro Joe was the only real competition for CH.
But since the Pacheco stuff is anti-ro, Joe, what it really
means is, it's late. The booms out there.
Dude until Ronald, you get this this weird thing where because
another running back is looking good behind ceh.
People have talked to themselves into CH being a better.
Pick to take, even higher, simply so that they could be
completely out on Row. Joe and drop him like four
rounds. Like, how does how does protect
code doing well? Well, how about, you know, I
completely agree with you that I think it did because they both
fit into to archetypes one. Like there's already a
pre-existing like disposition to dislike Row Joe.
Everyone loves saying oh he messed up.
He couldn't earn Tom Brady's trust he couldn't you know climb
that depth chart there and then rookies we all collectively.
Love rookies. We all want to Envision the 99th
percentile outcome. So you get, you do both of those
things in conjunction and it's like a lightning rod, pushing
them in opposite directions and I can totally, and it even on
Underdog like pacheco's, ATP, hasn't even risen like that
much. It's just Jose is sinking.
It's like everyone's quickest to react relative to Row Joe and
not the other stuff, but this is, I mean, this is not a new
Dynamic, guys. This is why I've continually
double down on roaches because every year I'm like, oh just
should be in the 10th round ladies in the 12th round.
And I'm like, oh yeah. Well shut that's a discount.
And then he'll fall to the 13th by The End by the end of the
draft season, and I've got an insane bag, the chat as a really
interesting thoughts. I'm Sean's thunderstor.
We got God's trying to spite you for the bullet Raja.
Joe takes God's angry that you're using your ability to see
the future. So openly God's trying to
silence you from giving up the secrets behind the Casey
backfield Pete, just pulled up the phone and says mother
nature, obviously mad. She didn't get a pack, her bags
on Row Joe before you broke the Pacheco spell on everyone.
It is interesting, we time after after what you were doing right?
As you are building up to the road, Joe, take you froze and
now we've got lightning and thunder in the background and be
connected. There's a lot Happening Here.
Fantasy, gods are not happy with it.
One of the other kind of funny things to about that.
Quote there that you read, I think that's like the next
sentence is that the Chiefs coaching staff is saying, we're
going to teach him how to do things that he hasn't done yet.
It's like, I mean, how much more of a clear shot at the
Buccaneers game. Can you make right there?
Wow, speaking of things he hasn't done yet.
Ronald Jones has a yards per hour on over his career of 1.10.
This is something, by the way, I mentioned on our mini so that
just released, check those out if you guys haven't.
But I cracked you guys up with this stat.
When we were debating a Chiefs running back on the clock of the
FPC, but Ronald Jones one point, 10 yards.
Part one of the course of his career it's actually a little
worse than that over the last two years, 0.81 and 0.70, you do
not want running backs below, one yards per hour and that's
bad, right? And 1.10 career still pretty
bad, how about quite a layer? The passing down, back from
elysée, elysée. How's he doing CeCe?
Good pass. Catcher in the pros 0.98.
He's a rookie fell to 0.73 last year career yards per hour.
Run of 0.89 significantly below Road.
Joe, Yours. What are you doing?
It's, it's unreal. It's all right, it makes me what
I do think. We have had in our main event
drafts. I believe we have been doing,
you know, a chief in in every draft, basically strategy.
This was from our second slow main.
We did that with the I'm on the boat with Lou and Frankie and
serum here. But you know this that all this
cheap stocks going to be excited because in this one, we did take
Juju there and debate that we Went with Sky their Planet, both
directions, and then I don't think we ended up getting roads
on this one, but we did still get McKinnon Pat.
I think it's weird in our first two drafts.
We have McKinnon and not Row Joe.
We're over 3 on Row Joe, we almost took them in one and
we're getting one pick ahead of us.
Yeah, and he almost came back really cheap in that our most
recent one was right, what are you doing it?
Right. Because we're gonna now good and
cheap. We're gonna get him cheap.
We did play them cheat now. Yeah.
Sean. Have you done any Main Event
drafts yet? Are you saving them for closer
to the season? Obviously and I should mention
now the four of us are drafting a main event team here live on
ship, chasing a week from tomorrow.
So that'll be Thursday. The 18th I believe will also be
doing a main event draft next Wednesday and basically Main
Event drafts from here until the start of the Season.
I'll pull up the schedule here, but Sean, do you have a any Main
Events under your belt, yet? I think I'm breaking.
But I don't then obviously been, and I will do a lot for stealing
banana, some 40, T, do we know our draft stock dropped yet?
We do. We got those.
Let me double check my email here to see what we got.
Do, you guys remember what we were for our sir?
I don't, we had a bunch of top five.
Yeah, let's see here. What we are.
We got some good picks this year.
Yeah. We are for chasing stalling, but
we have the five slot fellas. Yeah.
Yes, yeah. Yes.
Yeah. So, Sean is that what is your
favorite drafts? Lot on.
Ffp. See this year, if you could just
hand pick it, I would probably go with right because you're
going to get the going to get the last of that to order to
start the for and little bit are in round 2.
You perhaps get the best value falling coming back.
You still get an early pick in round 3.
So much. You can do with having picks in
the middle to the middle. Gives you a lot more flexibility
than being on the edges. I mean, I really enjoy being at
the turn and being able to get two guys in a row.
And sometimes taking I like to think of this as two surprising
players. They may not actually be
surprising players, but I like being at the turns but the
Tactical advantage of being them in the middle is pretty soon.
Yeah, Shauna freezing there again, but I feel that so much
just in general on basically, any sites I played this year,
like I having that middle slot is just, it seems ideal or walk
or if you want the fuck, you don't want the middle slot that
six or seven. I mean, you know, you're fine
with it if Chase balls to six or seven but you want Fox.
I mean, I think that's exactly right because beautiful place to
be. It is a beautiful place to be
because it to me there's like all these tear breaks that occur
throughout the day. Draft and you're catching it
five. You're catching the last of the
first tier break and then there's still plenty of the.
Basically from that point through probably the mid third
is the same rough tear and you're getting two guys from
that tear and then there's a tear break shortly after your
pick at 3:05. But that's your last until
you're picking the fourth. And was kind of one after that.
In the like sometimes you might get a value in the fourth, you
might get a waddle falling or somebody.
You know. Right.
You might get a waddle. Yeah.
And then like it can the fifth, I feel like there's a tear that
breaks sort of late in the fifth or maybe early in the sixth, you
don't have to worry about that. You got your fifth found guy
already, so like I guess by the 67, it starts to get a little
gross, but you've already had five picks and you got in the
best the best of the tears. I feel like each time Yeah, I
just pulled up. This was our first slow Main
Event draft. So if you guys were VIPs and
listening to those minisodes or you guys have been getting the
audio versions of those trickling out.
This was this team that did start from the 105 and that same
thing. You grab the pits, the chase
pits combo, their Higgins. You know.
Sliding their Brown seemed about appropriately.
Valued the one snipe was you guys heard us?
Talk about. We did really want Gabriel Davis
there after talking that out over Bateman, but I do agree.
It seemed like we hit the sweet spots of this, a lot.
Lat. And then, like, Singletary, we
were doing cartwheels for at this spot.
And then, in this 0r B build like, Carter and gain.
Well, who, Sean has since gone on to write some glowing things
about as potential 0, RB targets.
I mean, this draft fell, really nice for us.
Yes, I'm gonna do you guys think that's gonna pay it out.
Don't work this, this would have been so good for your brand been
if you had your time Montgomery, conviction.
Absolutely. I'm ready.
I was, I was what boy. Talk about taking both white in
Montgomery in this draft. It didn't, it didn't pan out and
then I was like, we got to take white over Montgomery, right?
And we should have just taken Montgomery.
Yeah, because White's going to start on PVP.
Montgomery's gonna be sweet for like six or eight weeks, White's
going to come back and be good. The rest of the way you can't
have white though. I mean, you can't hold them
through that. I don't think know.
Um, Sean if your internet can hold up for it.
I'd love to ask you about quarterbacks this year because
we found ourselves. If in some interesting spots in
these, it's about this being this being one of them.
This was one of the most interesting spots you could
have. I'm curious.
How are you feeling about the quarterback, landscape?
How willing are you to kind of push past this middle?
Eat tear after Herbert Allen, go off the board and kind of go
down to the Wilson. Lance Borough, Dak Brady.
I'm just kind of curious overall because there is specific ATP
context that that make it Interesting and drafts for
decision points. It does and I think that we are
moving into an environment as tournaments get bigger and as
the relationship between quarterback scoring and
quarterback ATP, gets a little bit stronger that you obviously
have to consider those star. Quarterbacks.
And yet I do like the in-between tear and I and this isn't unique
at all. But I really like Jalen hurts
and Trail ants because there are multiple ways that you Can win
with those guys. And if all they do is run and
their offenses are solid. You're going to come out ahead
if either one of them ends up, being anything like DeShaun
Watson, then you absolutely destroy the league.
And that part of it is huge for you.
And then if we're looking at some different opportunities to
put guys with them, you do have this possibility of playing a
Brandon. I Euchre Devonte Smith. and her
inexpensive enough that they're not in lung, your for starting
wide receivers, with either a stealing bananas or a ship
chasing build, but if they do hit then, You can win in such a
big way and you can win in a big way.
That's not overwhelmingly expensive, the other element of
it would simply be that there are going to be some dead spots
as you go through your drafts early on.
There are some fun, rookie wide receiver prices.
So that if you get caught in a spot in round five and six and
you don't have anybody there that you like I mean that's a
great spot to get some Lamar Jackson to get some color
Murray, maybe after Mahomes has really Fallen to get some of the
homes. I always like to take
quarterbacks Elite quarterbacks when I don't have any separation
at running back or wide receiver on my board.
In one thing that I feel like makes it a little trickier and I
might be misremembering, but it felt like last year that tear
break there was way more obvious and pronounce of like wide
receiver is decimated right now. Like DeShaun Watson at the time
or those guys really felt like the best possible picks like
didn't even feel like there was an opportunity cost this year
specifically with the rookies, Burke's London, Garrett Wilson,
especially Sky all of them feel Miss price by about a round.
And so you're often asking Do I try to play the ADP game?
Grab the quarterback here? See if that guy falls, or am I
going to reach for that wide receiver ahead of ADP?
And that's why it hasn't felt as clean to me this year as it may
be has in years past. Now the round 5 at wide
receiver, I think is actually, in many ways more interesting
than round 3 and round for. It doesn't necessarily mean
those guys are going to outscore them, but I find myself much
more drawn to wanting a lot of exposure to those receivers.
But then the good thing is that in read rap as opposed to best
ball, you do see those big time quarterbacks in round six.
And so if you you know, have the guy in round 5, you don't have
anybody in round 6. You could take the shot there.
Yeah, yeah, that's what we got. Marie P.
Say it's not as clean but we have three main event drafts in
and three shares of Kyla Marie. So there's there seems to be a
plan. Yeah, but that we've also gotten
funneled there for different reasons.
Whether it was stacking. I'm just saying there's always a
spot there where there was an attractive wide receiver.
If we wanted to take them because I do, I do think, guys,
like, Berks and Garrett Wilson are like Miss price by two
rounds, you know, like it's so that's where I Struggle with it.
It's like if I just had put together my big board, I would
probably push it. I think the dynamic that is
really interesting is, if you do, push it past that Kyler tear
and even now it hurts, who's kind of up there now to the
Lance DAC and sometimes Borough, it feels like you're playing
with fire a little bit, especially if you're on the ends
of drafts, right? And you could miss out on a run
and you're like, I passed on Cuyler because I thought, I'd
just play the ATP game and then the board gets wiped out.
Like are you willing to play chicken with Trey?
Lance is Derek Carr. Our kind of your back stop if
you miss a guy like that. Well, we not steal the last
night when we were doing the underdog.
Jeff. We're joking about how we took
Kelsey and then Pence made it back.
We had a similar quarterback, this decision.
As I mean, I think this is a huge question and we took their
earlier QB and then Lance went like 7.1 in this Underdog draft
and it was like well kind of glad we did take the Q be here
because we like not Sure what we would have done.
But anyway, go ahead and answer. I was like to risk it because I
am always trying to build in the main events these super teams
and yet it's a big risk because I don't think that the Prescott
or Stafford are playable either. I think that if you miss on the
guys right before them, then you actually want to go way down and
start taking potential breakout players.
It's not that every year is going to have a breakout player.
I don't know that there's a particularly good late break out
option. I do think that mean exactly
Wilson doesn't seem like an NFL starter but he's got those two
receivers. If you're high on them, maybe
you have a little bit of interest if you think that
Marcus Mariota could make it through him, to me is a guy who
could score like players in the seventh round but again, that's
a thin kind of thesis because he's not going to make it
through. And so you're going to use some
other things. I mean the redraft part of it is
good. Because you can let your team of
all throughout the course of the Year, whereas, invest ball.
I mean, you're really stuck with those pics.
If you make them at the same time, it's going to be very hard
to get that QB scoring back. And again, as these tournaments
get bigger, and you're playing for the 1 million dollars,
you're going to need some quarterback points.
I'm impressed, you didn't bring up Mike Jones and jerk off their
chose. Some other later on quarterback
ceiling bananas listeners, who are watching.
They're also going. What who's Marcus Mariota?
Exact Wilson. These are not the later on QVC
that you mentioned every episode.
He liked to balance it out, I mean, I I had that spot in.
This was my Pros vs. Joe's draft.
And there was a huge quarterback run here in the sixth.
And this was one of those spots again where sometimes I might be
tempted to take Trail ants here in the seventh and not risk it.
But and then I'm sitting here and staring at Drake London and
to Sean's point it's like can I build a super team push it to
the eight then get Lance and then like Sean was mentioning
earlier than Brandon, are you he's still kicking around here
in the night so you get your stack and you can build that
out. And that's where This spot here.
When these runs happen, it can feel a little scary, but if you
have those targets that Sean's, talking about, you're more
willing to be able to risk it, that's what really good.
Fuck, dude. This this one had our Chiefs
guys were talking about that. We got the Kelsey, the the juju
and in the road Joe here, although people are getting Row.
Joe, much cheaper. Healthy Swift.
YouTube land side, you can the middle.
You get Row. Joe get Darryl Henderson pretty
good. Wanda late even got Vista on
their roll the clip. Yeah, we're playing the hits
here, playing the hits for sure. But yeah, that's about mine as
well. Yeah, we had similar builds bat,
right? Because you had me restart.
Kelsey Berkeley. Maybe Aaron Jones comes here and
John's, yeah, might have been it.
But yeah, we end up with pretty similar teams.
I wanted to ask you about Justin field shown because we did a
dynasty startup together recently and we're kind of going
back and forth. And I was the fields bear there,
because I'm just nervous about this situation around him to
offensive line is atrocious. You know, the second one Like
they had last year Tevin Jenkins.
People are like, kind of like surprised to hear they were
considering trading him. Dude hasn't seemed like a
first-team read blog, haha, season, like, who cares betrayed
him. And then there was a beat writer
today. I was like, snarkily, tweeting
about who's saying, oh man, what a sweet throw just in fields,
just had to Isaiah culter, you don't be sweeter than that.
Throw not having us a cult Iran. They're saying, what are we
doing? There's so, but on the other
hand, some of the some of the offensive line stuff maybe is
good because he's going to scramble more.
Like it's not good but maybe you know we get some fancy points
out of it so you know it's a certain point in bad rather have
it just be that little extra were so he's running around more
but I don't know. I will is he part of that
backstop plan for you at all? Well I have a ton of him.
I in some ways I do like him a little bit more in best ball
where you're not going to have to roll them out every week
knowing that, he's your starter. And I think that there's a weak
version of my case for DeAndre Swift and TJ Hawkinson last year
where you combine the talent with the garbage time and I
actually do struggle to see how he doesn't score a lot of
points, right? He's got the big accurate arm.
The question is the offense, the talent around him, his
decision-making, his information processing.
I mean that's where he has to grow into a legitimate.
Well quarterback, right? But he can make these big time
throws. He rushed more last year than
people realize, I think. And that's with an offense where
they were specifically trying to keep him from running.
And so, we don't expect him to betray Lance.
We don't expect him to be Lamar Jackson and yet the Russian
upside there, they're going to get him out on the edge and I'm
he's just going to run because there's nobody to throw to and
so there are a lot of potential fantasy points.
They are my only concern with the Bears would be if they just
flat out, don't try in the fourth quarter and one of the
good things about the Lions last year and the thing that did.
Help Swift. And Hawkinson at least to an
extent was that that team competed.
And so, if you think that the bear is, as terrible as they are
and my article, they I said, I mean I obviously have the 30
second ranked skill position group and if there were 100
teams that would be 100. But yet I mean if they do try in
the fourth quarter how do they not score points and how does he
not score points? I think there are worse options
and so He's the person I'm targeting when I Target other
people and miss and yet when you're trying to win the overall
tournament in the main event, I do see that part of, it seems a
little bit difficult for me. I'm also a little concerned,
they hired a, you know, they hire a defense, of course,
co-head coach. The offensive coordinator to be
their head. Coach, their OC very limited
offensive coordinator background.
He was the passing game, coordinator for the Packers.
Last two years. Obviously the Packer Aaron
Rodgers, ones MVP back-to-back Seasons but how much of that was
Aaron Rodgers? How much of that was Luke Etsy?
How much of that even if it was, Luke gets he, can you bring over
to the Chicago Bears team and Justin fields?
The that part about them being competitive is where I get hung
up. I love Justin Fields, I'm with
you with everything else but I'm like this team's gonna suck in,
they're going to suck in a boring way.
That's I'm just depressed about that.
Well, when you read some of the beat reports you don't get the
impression they picked up any first downs.
But yet those people covering the team are very enthusiastic
about their offensive coordinator, despite the lack of
first downs in practice they really liked the way the offense
works. Okay?
Alright shut you mentioned the the week 15 through 17 Element
with FPC. I'm curious any specific
considerations, you're making for that whether it's you know,
schedule based any other stuff and and maybe also kind of
comparing it to if you think about it differently than you do
on Underdog with best Ball Mania 3 and just kind of in general
how you're thinking about in-game stuff and how you can
set yourself up for Success even drafting here in August.
Yeah, the thing that I'm always trying to do occasionally to my
detriment, but is a fun way to draft is too.
You know, basically, essentially or exclusively, I'm sorry
exclusively Target players that you expect to be three rounds
more expensive next year. And if that takes a little bit
of time, at the beginning of the season to manifest itself, or
for those guys to get in that position, then you're okay with
it. And so at the midpoint of the
season, if not all of your teams are in first place, that's okay.
But as you're going, then from say, week seven or eight, to
week, 14, those Have to be ascending.
And they have to be peaking for the fantasy playoffs to where.
Again, we talked with 0, RB about the trying to get six of
the top 15 wide receivers because that gives you so much
fire power to dominate. The starting lineup, dominate
the flex, your 0r B guys. Re-emerging, your players like
Kenneth gain. Well, may now be the starters
and not just the starters, but, you know, not Superstars, but
big-time players and you think about, we talk about the news
and the patients that You have to have.
And one of the very interesting guys, from last year, was
Richard Penny, right? And he was the person who want
us all a bunch of money, invest ball.
And yet, not on those redraft teams because everybody cut him
and he do for good reason and he's been locked and so he can't
come back in and actually play in the fantasy playoffs.
But you have to have that kind of player and you have to have
players who if they're second-string our potential
star. So pennies back upright.
It looks like someone who you know is a must draft in every
League basically now that the ADP is accepted and you're
getting him at a good price. So once you're there and going
into the that 15 through 17 run, you need to be starting a super
team it's not so much a matter of where do I find the small
edges although you want to find those two but you're looking for
the big edges and you're looking for your team to become it, and
like the team that won the last year, where everybody's looking
at that team and say, Saying, I mean, this is the greatest team
of all time. How did they draft this team?
Well, they drafted that team because they set out to draft a
very, very good team as opposed to get.
A lot of small ADP wins and build a safe.
I'm going to be in the upper third of my league type of team.
I mean they drafted a team to win the whole thing and it's
easy to say that it's harder to do it, but there are so many
structural things and player profile types of things that you
have to be willing to do. And you can do you mean you have
the option of making fun? Pics.
That's one of the things I like about it is that not only does
it give you a chance to win the whole thing, but it's a much
more fun way to draft. And so that's kind of what I'm
thinking of when I'm looking at Weeks 15 to 17 is that you need
to be able to see for a large percentage of the players on
your team, how they could contribute to an All-Star team
down the stretch because you're going to be other teens in that
race that are very very good. Yeah, I like that a lot.
And I've, I love that heuristic, as well, to of just thinking of
who are the guys that can jump, you know, majorly in a teepee.
The next year, it also puts you on a lot of teams that that look
like Dynasty teams, right where you have, so many of these
rookies and you are looking and specifically some of that 0r b
target range with your James Cook in your Spiller and Richard
white and yeah there's other guys kicking around in that
range but you look at all those guys in it's like if any of
those guys were second or third round picks next year.
Would that surprise, you know, and it's hard to say that about
a lot of the other non rookies in that same range.
So let's talk about Rashad real quick because I was on with you
guys when he was drafted, I know you were worried about his draft
stock but he got that crucial day to Capital and I have been
extremely bullish with the landing spot because Tom Brady
throws his running back. Some Richard white as pass
catcher but obviously Leonard fournette is there a little for
now? It's like not.
We as expensive, as I thought he might be his prices are really
out of control. So, you know, maybe I shouldn't
be just betting. So aggressively against him with
all my Richard white shares. But here we are.
He does look like in a lot of ways, kind of a classic zero
running back candidate. Got the contingent values pass
catcher. But there's also maybe like not
the best opportunity for him to like mix in because they've used
for notice such a Workhorse. What are your thoughts on him?
I think you're muted jump because the price is still in
that range. That is a little bit tricky and
impart because I just, you know, you do have some emotional
things, feel go. Through with fantasy and you
might as well embrace them as opposed to not.
And I don't want to spend the entire season being on the
opposite side of Oakland her for not necessarily at the price
range to them. You think about someone like you
know Benjamin where I'm actually pretty confident Standalone
value because of the way the Buccaneers do what.
I just I'm not sure that there's any Standalone value there now
in redraft especially as opposed to best ball, you don't need it.
You just need someone. Who, if things change, then is a
Time to impact player, it's going to depend a little bit on
just how thin you are through the first ten rounds, I was
excited because Ben, and I got what with, at least my one of my
first shares of him last night. That was a lot of fun.
I do think that he has huge upside.
I'm also with you there on for net, where it's just the price
is wrong, and that's very frustrating because the players
I know not going to draft, I'm always rooting for them to go
up, go up, go up. And my article their day on if
you're tired of buying or paying for Najee Harris and and Joe
Mixon, here are some options. Leonard, fournette is a great
option and at the end of the article, just says, I'm not
going to have any, but unless you're like, exactly in my
shoes, you should have some. Because why would anyone draft
nausea hair. Silver Leonard fournette.
I guess there's one of four that's old and in bad and now
she's young and bad. I have graphic.
I've drafted Leonard fournette, four, separate times and best
Ball Mania, that's not of, almost 100 drafts, but still
that's a lot more than I thought I would.
I mean, well, he falls into the third round.
It's pretty wild, but it goes back to that thing to shot.
Like you're also having to pass on AJ Brown and T Higgins, to
draft Leonard, fournette. These best of all media drafts,
which is It's just the hardest button to click.
I've never once even consider drafting him.
So I'm sitting at 4% and best of all Mania and I feel and I
probably like, massively over weight compared to you guys.
Yeah, yeah. I have four percent as well.
So, that's recent, yeah. So I would likely only comes on
here and acts like we're just complete lunatics with our, with
our Leonard, fournette, hating everything, we're moderates.
We're the ones. Except with David Montgomery who
I do. In fact, have 0 equals negative
B equals 0 and a little bit Bolder 0, Joe Mixon.
I'm not taking Joe Mixon. Once so Sean for some of those
other guys that you are on pretty much a full fade like
some of the guys that Pat said I mean where are you at on?
Are you playing it through other backs?
Say the Chris Evans perine it? Do we have any Alpha on the
Steelers backup running back? Are you betting against notch?
He your guy, Benny Snell still kicking around there?
Do you have any Galaxy brain late-round running back targets
here to Leverage The Fades? Yeah, every once in a while,
I'll run across a dynasty team that still has some funny smell
that I have to cut for. I gots a contract league, and
you have these penalties and so he's just, he's still there, you
know, thinking. Well, that was an obvious
missing still, is going to be regardless of what happens to
Harris. The the Bengals situation is
interesting because I think that perine actually is a good
player. I don't know that there's that
big a gap even between Nixon and perine and then Evans is
interesting because he's very athletic and the potential for a
receiving roll. It it gives you a sense of the
news and how much it affects things because he was so trendy
as they talked about. Okay.
Joe Mixon is not going to play Third downs, and as soon as you
hear that, really just mixing is like a fourth round player.
Now, fourth round is still a very valuable Able player so
it's not like we're saying you know, he's terrible, something
like that but that's where his value is.
If he doesn't play Third Downs or even fourth or fifth, I mean
becomes Josh Jacobs but it's a guy who has a full faith
position on to mixing this is pretty great.
But with Evans, right? You have the situation where as
soon as that comes out, then everybody is drafting in in the
15th round and you can understand why.
And then they come out and say Look, he's got a ways to go, you
know, it's the quintessential, Roadshow quotes.
Like he's got a lot to work on and then he drops out of the
draft entirely again. The best part of it is tricky
because again, you just you have to be very aware of how you're
conserving every pick that you have.
And there are some other ways to play things that are maybe not
as risky. You can maximize all of those
draft picks in redraft though where you actually want to take
some big risks at running back because you are going to turn
you know if you get into the situation where you actually
feel like you have to keep every player on your roster, you won't
be aggressive enough in the first three or four weeks.
Weeks of free agency and you'll miss out on these guys who maybe
they don't become League winners, but they will
contribute to your team. So even just sort of
psychologically even set yourself up into a little bit
better position by taking some guys who are just pure
contingent. That's not anything to where
they're going to have a week. One roll, the Bengals are such a
high scoring team. Such a good offense, you should
have some exposure to those players.
Even if the coach is saying, look this guy is third-string,
especially if he's athletic. If you could catch the ball, one
of the things that we've seen this season, I think.
Is that there are pass catchers you talk about Trends and how
fantasy has evolved. And it just seems so crazy to me
that I'm seeing some spots in drafts, where I actually think
the past catching backs are overvalued.
I mean, that's how much we've come around to people
understanding how running backs, actually score.
And so if there are some players, you'd like to be on who
were overvalued but there are players in explosive offenses
even if they are the third Stringer who could be big-time
players in redraft where you Can just cut them.
You want to have some exposure, came real quickly.
Here is I think I know one of the players.
Sean was referencing go correct. I will basically send a quick
observation do it. All right, sorry I'm getting the
sense from hearings on talk about the difference between
best ball and redraft was kind of these War a war.
In the streets, one of the the various Anchorman fights that
we're having on Twitter, Sean is Advance rate Bros just trying to
get these teams to the playoffs and playoff trying to maximize
our teams trying to take big swings in these 20.
I think you might be an advanced, right, bro?
Which is like, kind of shocking. To me, is, is like, you know,
you're the contrarian, the contingent value kind of Guru,
but it seems like you're just trying to get usable weeks, not
take zeros get these teams to the playoffs here.
I've quite know what Sean wants to say Sean is I'm going to
build the super team that wins the million dollar regular
season prize and then also competes in weeks of it to
himself but that that is his goal.
And that should be our goal, right?
I mean, to win, both should be our goal.
No, I do think that. But I guess, maybe where that's
different though is that you're also still willing to take the
biggest swings possible and you might have teams that finish in
last place in your league because the swings you're taking
are so big right and that I think sometimes maybe the
advancement rate stuff gets conflated with playing it safe
and I don't think I would characterize how sean drafts as
playing it safe. But it is an interesting
distinction. I've noticed that to path and I
was this guy. I was going to point out, Sean,
having looked at your rankings that I can tell.
The market is higher on it actually surprised me when I saw
your ranking was on naheem Hines because he had been kind of a
poster boy for this past catching up side.
He's got a little juice in him. We know he can break off the big
play. What makes you like have gained
well and say a higher tier than I he Minds.
There are a number of backs, I think with similar prices that
you could make even a bigger case for, in terms of just how
huge they could be. And one of the things I've
always talked about what 0r B, especially for redraft, is to
have this balance of the big-time breakout Stars, the
past catching backs, and the guys, with Standalone value, who
then would become bigger pieces of the offense, if the starter
got hurt. Obviously, you're not rooting
for that. But you know that there are
going Injuries in some ways I think that because of the
particular profiles that were looking at right now.
I'm moving a little bit more in the direction of this
combination of sort of stand-alone value / almost
entirely breakout Stars so that we can maximize our exposure to
their shot Penny, the Devin Singletary, all of that type of
player, it doesn't mean that there wouldn't be some times
where it came up and you might want to have of a player that
can help you get across the first month.
Although I do think, that's one of the things that's changed is
that in many ways you are be has just gotten so easy now and that
you do have just so many options late that you're not even having
to worry about that first month and trying to claw back when you
can lead start to finish with these 0rp teams because you have
all of that wide receiver Flex tight end, Elite QB.
And then the guys that you end up at running back are still
fine to get you through the first month and We're not going
to have a season like 2021 all the time to have so many massive
performances both in the regular season with guys, like for net
and Connor and cordial, Patterson.
And then in the postseason with Michelle and Penny and
Singletary, we shouldn't expect that to be the case in 2022.
But I think there are a lot of profiles and a lot of intriguing
backs in the second half of drafts to wear.
Even if it's not that many, you can still put together teams
that have multiple guys, who will be big-time scorers in the
fantasy playoffs. That makes sense.
We're so I've noticed in the round, nine range.
I feel like the round nine range.
This year. I'm thinking kind of more best
ball drops right now because that range get pushed up a
little bit and ffp, see, but that feels like pretty juicy to
me were, I don't remember it feeling quite as good last year.
My dream Stephenson is in that range.
You're getting guys push down. Like even a CH I've that's like
one of the guys are like, I'm not taking a CH and then CH
Falls. Until like the, you know, past
Pick 100 or something. It's like I'll take I'll take
him here. So there's guys that Coral,
Patterson James Cook Devin Singletary.
Damien Harris, now falling behind reminder Stevenson
number, these leaks. So there's lots of guys and, you
know, sometimes you'll see like, like Jacobs fell to the eighth
and in the ship, this thing, Avalanche draft.
So you know you'll see some of the Dead Zone guys, slip, pretty
far. How are you playing that section
of the job? Because that, that feels like
pretty critical 20 running back builds right now.
There are a lot of guys their the one back field that is is
odd and frustrating to me because I'd love to have some
exposure but just so expensive are the Packers and so you're
you're really having to draft with an injury and a, not all of
it for sure, but a big chunk of the value you would gain from an
injury already priced in. But other than that, I mean you
just have so many opportunities to choose from and one of the
things that I'm frustrated with As it relates to sort of the
Zack Moss stuff in the James Cook stuff is that it's going to
be harder to get cook as he goes up.
Because he's not being hit by that part of it seemingly.
And yet I mean for a Singletary drafter you don't want to act
like there's not more risk now or that, you know, all I'm still
going to be right in terms of my June, take on this backfield.
You're going to move with some of the developments and how your
prices be a little bit different.
But one of the things that's great about 20 22 is that just
even kind of in the last week. In terms of what the movement
has been with Singletary. He's priced in a Range where if
he were the pure back up, that would be a good price and that's
probably not the case, right? I mean maybe it is and maybe
James Cook will be that good. Maybe Zack Moss, will take some
goal, line work and maybe Singletary will go right back to
what he was before the last month of the season last year.
But because Singletary himself is good and because the bills
were so good with him. I mean, I'll be a little bit
surprised that that happens but the good part about it.
And the reason That 0r b works. Is that you can make those pics
and if you're wrong, your team still going to be good because
you have some other guys. Yep.
This is, we can do this question here, from Gem City Gridiron.
I'm curious as well. Shawn he says, thoughts on how
you think about 0r B in baseball versus redraft and then he adds
on which one would you be willing to push further?
We'll all of our information from the roster construction.
Explorers gives you a good feel for just how far you can
legitimately push it in best ball and because you're not
going to be able to To change a roster, you do need to have some
specific. Positional allocations at
different points in the draft. And then overall, your win rates
are just going to be much better if you hit the ideal builds and
much worse if you try and go crazy and try and do something
that you're thinking, well this hasn't been done before you'd
have to have just an incredibly pure and lucky run to make those
kinds of things work. Whereas in redraft, you can push
it a long, long way and Blair, and I drafted, a team, a couple
of years ago, that didn't take a running back in the first 10
rounds and I mean, we were lucky, anytime you finished or
the top, you're lucky, but we finished 31st overall because
that type of thing in FF PC with the double Flex, with the fire
power, you get from receivers with your ability, to let your
roster improve and enrich itself during the course of the year.
The team can just end up very, very good.
And so, and that's the nice thing about Drafting and
redraft, as you just don't have to worry about it, we're
invested all you have to actually employ some discipline
and start taking some of those other players at the points,
where it just makes sense. And structurally is the dictated
dictated play. For sure, have you done?
I don't know I guess I've seen I'm not sure have you written up
a 0 RB article on a underdog team.
You've done, thank you, I did I. Okay, one of the things we've
been trying to do is to kind of meld the stuff from the roster
construction explorers with actual drafts.
And so, Listeners and readers don't necessarily like have to
like that draft. But I do try and give sort of a
blueprint for at least how I'm doing it with.
Then the other things, Connor O'Driscoll has put together
these fantastic articles on how to do hyper fragile, how to do
0r B, how to do anchor running back and I've written some
pieces using some of his works and stuff from the Russia
construction explore and then my drafts to illustrate how I would
do an extreme anchor, how it would do a 0 RB Dream Team.
Team, how I would do an upgraded hyper fragile, which just add
upgrade to anything, and it's going to be better, right?
Yeah and I do think though those articles to do really illustrate
the power of stacking small edges, right?
And you look and and one of Connor's articles that he wrote
to of how it's like not even that hard to actually get
unique. I think sometimes we get in this
Echo chamber and it seems like we're all doing the same things
and that these edges are gone. But you could look at the
combination of 0r B with Elite tight end with two cubes in the
window and have like a 0.48%. Realization rate last year in
Basketball Mania to. And so, if you are continually
stacking, these small edges, you really can build super teams
that are also structurally, very unique and naturally put you on
different combinations to, if you're fortunate enough to get
into the playoffs and I mean, Gracchus talked about it, with
our buying 14, to like it wasn't a good team.
Like, it wasn't even that good of an team had like a few good
superstars on it, but it was the structure, it was the uniqueness
and like it was just a bunch of combination.
Of small edges that were able to get it to that point.
So I think that's always a good thing to remember, is the
biggest compliment I could have. No, it is.
I look at it, too, and I'm always like stunned.
I love how it could get there. And I'm, I also feel fortunate
That We snuck it through last things, you can control those
things, you can control the stuff that you guys can control
you obviously executed as well as you possibly can to.
I mean, it's a, it's just a like one of the best draft of all
time. Let's see, I mentioned it.
Last time we talked about is just that team's been doing lat.
Right head. All right about it soon.
Enough Goose, we appreciate this.
Two hours of amazing information.
Appreciate you guys. We appreciate you guys.
We appreciate Sean lending us his time.
It is always such a treat to get to listen to Sean, talk about
fantasy football, to read a stop.
To listen to him with Ben and with column, and it's just it's
so fun. You make fantasy football, fun.
You help us discover these edges that we can push and and all
have really successful years. Sean, thank you again for
joining us tonight. Well, it's been awesome, and
thank you for having me. As I pointed out, when we had
you on some shows in my thesis, that Peter overs, that rules the
world is proved more and more accurate every day.
I do want to mention that you had the Fantastic series with
Michael do neuron best ball and he is going to have an article
called the best ball Bible coming out in the next handful
of days. His work is fantastic.
Make sure you look for that over to the pissed.
Yeah, make sure you're subscribed Road of is basically
no matter what I mean, you can read all Sean stuff to there's
so much good stuff over there though.
I also for the FPC Command Center which is like we use that
every single day event draft that we do.
So yeah, fit as we move from best fall season to redraft
season. You're still going to need that
rid of it. So yeah, I mean we say it every
year I am not on the road of his payroll.
I don't have an affiliate link, how there's not a promo code
Pete for wrote of his. I don't know and I will tell you
You. It is the best bang for your
buck subscription in the entire world.
If you said Peter, you can only have access to one fantasy
subscription for the rest of your life.
I would pick Roto Biz and I'm not bullshitting.
It's that good. Sean's, that good.
The guys over there, are that good shot?
I don't know if I'd Dave told you this weekend, I was drafting
in Boston. The Boston Beantown brawl and
Dave was right next to me and I was having to leave and he's
like, what he's like, what is that?
Cheat sheet you're using and he's like it looks familiar.
I was like oh these are Sean's tears.
He's like oh yeah I helped make those.
I was like yeah that's why it looks sillier looks familiar to
you. So yeah I can't say enough good
stuff about what you guys are doing and in seriously if you're
somehow watching this show and not reading Sean and listening
to them and subscribing to all the great work over at Road of
is you are legitimately doing it wrong.
I also want to plug Pat's massive best ball article that
went up today on NBC Sports Edge, kind of building on all of
these Concepts. Pat does just like a phenomenal
job of like ingesting. All of this information.
Action in the Discord and then really pushing it forward.
With some really cool research on, you know, how to optimize
for winning these best ball. / tournaments is there, is there
anything else I didn't mention about that?
Because it was a, it was an awesome article.
Well oh just say it relies heavily on the road of his
roster construction. Explore it references.
It's going to be two part series.
There will be a second part coming out on quarterbacks that
is going to reference a lot of the work that Sean has done on
the quarterback window and how important it is to, you know,
structurally build your team. On the quarterback position but
also reference is work by kind of Driscoll.
S can Park Madison Park Hill, Michael to dinner.
So you know, the road of is the red part of his body of work on
best ball. Kind of help get me there.
Gretch, I just finished listening to your guys's
projection series with Leone. I had been savoring those who
listen to my last one, the NFC South the other day.
I do consider that to be a must listen to get ready for this
final stretch of drafts, you've got post coming out, I've been
enjoying your divisional posts on the sub stack, anything else
people can look forward to from from your direction?
Lot of writing on the sub stack and I was mentioned earlier, we
got the moon shot record A few really good shows if you like
the projection shows. We went through my projections a
little but Sean pick through my projections in my rankings.
Pretty good basically said all the spots that he thought my
rankings were wrong. It's kind of like the meanest
Sean's. Ever been honest three-part sort
of series. I guess that I think the first
time maybe ever dropped her probably drop today and my only
real question was about his briefs Hall, Target tool.
That was not your only question. That was a question, but then
the second one I mentioned was all about the top five tight
ends. It was a real big deep, dive on
that tease out a little bit earlier.
That's a good good episode as well.
Be a lot of fun yesterday recording, multiple episodes
that I would look out for from stealing bananas.
Yeah. And as you guys saw on the
schedule, this was a show. We absolutely were looking
forward to and had to get in before we went into straight
drafting mode. We posted the schedule on
Twitter. In the Discord, all that good
stuff. If you guys want to join the
Discord Community, highly recommend it, you become a
YouTube member and then you get access to that Discord, all
kinds of strategy talk going on in there and also planning for
our Vegas trips. But yes, these next few weeks
are going to be awesome. Drafts on Wednesdays and
Thursdays. We even have one on a Friday
thrown in there or drafting with crack rock with Sean with Davis
Matic with Hassan and Blair from Roto Biz and of course a bunch
of our VIPs as well. So Just super stoked for this
next month, we appreciate all of you ship Chasers.
I feel like we're going to all have a massive year in these
contests. Someone from the road of is, and
shift, JC Community, is going to be taken down one of these big
prizes. I absolutely can't wait, so, for
Pat for grach, I'm Pete. And this is Sean Siegel, the
best in the biz will see you guys next time.