All right drafts might be wrapping up the big board, the
little boards closing. The NFL draft might be just over
a week away, but that seems like the perfect time to get ADP
chasing rolling again on the ship chasing channel.
Paternity. Pat is still out, but
nevertheless we got Sam Davis, Gretch and myself here to do a
final pre NFL draft version of ADP chasing.
Talking through all of the risers fallers.
Certainly some interesting player movements to discuss.
ADP chasing is back. Let's do it.
Pat Fryer helmo this. Is why This is why I'm hot.
Anita hand job. Fix your sight.
Jamar. Alpha play chase, you can't
handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point. You're right.
Excited to be back on the ADP chasing on ship chasing
everybody. We got, you know, we got a lot
of feedback. The past couple shows with just
me, Pat and Davis that we didn't have enough voices in the room.
So I'm excited to have both Gretch and Pete joining us
today. Fellas, how are we doing?
Doing good. The only way to fill Pat's shoes
is with four, four feet. Two sets of feet.
So we're gonna do our our best today.
Why is the Garrett Wilson clip not in the ship chasing intro?
Why is the Garrett Wilson Lynn Swan clip not a part of the
intro? I mean, I feel like that.
I feel like that's a legendary ship chasing moment to be
honest. I think it happened after the
intro was already made. Yeah it did.
And I've noticed this. I refreshed my like best ball
breakfast info in intros once a year cause the references
change. But people also start to treat
these as like comfort food where and then they'll get them set.
So you do kind of have to add to it as opposed to remove
something, but yes we can. We'll talk with the with the
team and see if that needs to get added.
That was a a classic moment for sure.
We got that this year's Garrett Wilson moment can could happen.
You know next week that's coming.
That's coming up the The Draft show.
Yeah, I think we're going to get a, we're going to get a Jayden
Daniels's Fran Tarkenton and Warren Moon comp.
And we could seriously get a Cadarius Tony moment with all of
these random wide receivers that could go at the end of round one
too. Jake Mcculkey.
All right, Sam, this is, this is, this is your guys show you,
you take the, the steering wheel.
What's the agenda for today? Yeah.
So we're going to go over Rogers and Fallers over the past two
weeks. So Pete, if you wouldn't mind
adding the charts up. Yeah, so here this has been sort
of a a bit of a dead period I'd say in ADP movement, but still
some after effects I guess of free agency and trades showing
up here. So there's a bunch of guys on
here, bills and Texans, guys that we've talked a lot through.
I wanted to spend a bit more time on some of the names.
We didn't talk as much about South starting today, talking
about Derrick Henry, he's up six spots over the past two weeks,
you know, more like 30 spots over the last month where he was
pre free agency. He shows up here as the second
biggest riser. Curious, I guess starting
starting with you, Gretch, How have you been approaching Henry?
I know you drove across the border to do some slow drafts.
How are you thinking about his new price in Bestball right now?
I haven't taken him yet. I think it's less about him
specifically and more about how I've wanted to approach
structurally. And so I haven't been taking a
lot of running backs in that range, but certainly at his age
it's a it's a high opportunity cost already and then you get
into the the question of the area that he's going in, there's
a lot of receivers that I want to be taking and you can even
start to talk about the tight ends.
And so it is, it's a it's one I just haven't actually allowed
myself to think too hard about. I do think after talking with
Sean on Bananas yesterday, I don't know if those pod the Pod
is out yet that that we discussed it.
I do think the Ravens are a pretty decent candidate to be
adding in the draft, so it'll be interesting to see, you know,
this big rise. I think they're a lock to take.
Yeah, they're more or less a lock and it's not a great
running back class. But once they add I I'm curious
if this rise is gonna be undone a little bit.
And then Keaton Mitchell. I was researching him a little
bit, just for some late round stuff and and found that just
refreshing myself on his injury and stuff that it was a a single
ligament tear when he tore his ACL.
And also that like John Harbaugh had some quotes right away that
it was a clean tear. When they went in, they did the
surgery. They felt really good about it.
That his. I mean he's still very young.
It seems like the lowest impact of an ACL tear that you could
have, basically. So if they had a rookie and they
have Keaton Mitchell and Darren Derrick Henrik you know 30 plus
years old and Greg Roman's not there anymore.
I mean, there's there's all the effects of Lamar Jackson and
everything but on rushing efficiency and all that.
But I I do think there's some concern about the overall size
of of his workload and how hard they're going to really push
him. This price for me gets gets
tricky with the opportunity cost at the other positions.
I'm curious why you guys think they're likely to add a back.
I mean, my thought was with Keaton Mitchell, assuming that
ACL Terry is clean and he can be back.
He's still on the roster. Justice Hill is still on the
roster. He got decent playing time last
year. I don't know.
To me it seems less likely they would go running back with all
the needs they have, but I don't know I guess.
I guess. It's a team.
It's a team that cannot. It's a team that cannot function
without multiple available running backs.
Justice Hill is 27. He's year second contract
running back. They had never really wanted to
play Justice Hill. The only reason he was playing
last year was like solely through attrition.
And it's just it's just I mean you can just tell it's the team
that values running backs like they they always spend a pick on
a running back. Mitchell I I I mean I I took him
a lot early in that the big board and I like didn't really
know any of the rookie running backs and was just kind of
vibing. But I I would expect him to be
either not available to start the year or not a big part of
it. And also, I mean, I think they
have to be realistic about the fact that Derrick Henry is 30
and there is just a chance that he doesn't make it through the
entirety of the season is my thing.
Yeah, the only thing I'd I would, I would just add to that
is they have 9 picks and they have their first, second and
third rounders. Their extra picks are on day
three, they have six day three picks and most of those classes
have to be kind of day three picks.
I I'd be surprised if they didn't use one of those day
three picks on the back. One thing from the that you know
the titular ADP chasing reference that's interesting
here is like if you're if you're drafting off of any ranks like
ETR, Rotaviz and Leg Up are all behind this ADP.
So like you will not get him part of to what Gretch was
saying, like the structural stuff, there are some really
nice wide receiver picks there. But I had this moment yesterday
where I did my usual thing of clicking a wide receiver there
and I immediately was kind of upset because Henry had slipped
a few picks past ADP. And I said to myself, we all
know where this is. Derrick Henry is headed for the
early third round, late second round during BBM drafting season
when everyone pours it. And I'm probably not going to
like his ADP as much there as I am right now.
And so I kind of had the thought like, I do maybe want to pack
some of my final bags of Henry at this price because I do think
he's only going to get more expensive.
So that's my only thing about that.
If like if you don't like the price now, if you don't want to
have 0%, you might want to grab a few shares.
Yeah, I think that's right. And Pat made that point I think
on our last show where I was like, I think he settles like
3-4 turn, he's already jumped past that and I think you're
right that he's probably continuing to jump up.
I I did want to have a little bit of discussion on Derrick
Henry's decline. So I looked into his performance
the past five years. So what this chart shows, which
is interesting, this is percentage of weeks getting a
spike week over 25 plus points. And you can see that from 2019
to 2021, Derrick Henry was basically the best running back
in the league at doing this, really only getting beaten out
by maybe Christian McCaffrey. Then in 2022 saw a decline and
then last year he had almost no spike weeks above 25 plus
points. But as always, when you do these
sort of arbitrary threshold things, it's worth setting a
lower threshold and seeing what happens if you lower that to 20
plus points. He really hasn't shown a big
decline in his fantasy scoring. So you know the past two years,
Last year he was still first in the NFL amongst running backs
and delivering 20 plus points spike weeks.
Last year he was 6. So he's still, you know, even in
his age 30 season, he hasn't shown massive signs of decline.
That's also somewhat backed up by some underlying stats and
efficiency here. So his breakaway rate by how PFF
measures it, that has not really declined over the past five
years. It shows up in his, you know,
top speed when carrying the ball.
That hasn't really declined either.
His rush yards over expected per attempt has declined from that
2019-2020. But again, PFF Rushcreate hasn't
really declined. So I don't know.
I think, I think with Henry like the age concerns are certainly
there. I do think, like, I'm willing to
attribute more of his statistical decline last season
more to the Titans offense than him, like really showing some
massive decline as a player. So yeah, for me it comes down to
like the age Cliff. It's coming up at some point.
I don't think he's hit it yet, but he obviously could hit it in
a year, so that's when you really have to price.
It that's the thing with all these guys is they don't hit it
till they do, right? And then and then once a once a
240 LB running back hits the age Cliff, there's no, there's no
climbing back up the Cliff. There's no scalpelling equipment
that is gonna get him back up on on top of the mountain.
I I guess I would disagree with Pete a little bit and the chat
seems to really agree with it as well.
I I would be surprised if he if he continues to rise from here.
I I feel like the ADP trends have valued H over the last
couple years that there's a lot of guys that have started a
small slide the year that they start to like.
He turned 30 in January. You're showing some of these
numbers with the rush yards over expected that have dropped off.
If you just look at like his yards per carry, which is a
little more more surface level, it does show a pretty
significant draw for over not just the last year, but the last
like three years where you know he used to be like a 5 yards per
carry guy, 2018-2019, 2020 he's been not even hit 4.5 yards per
carry the last three years. Now some of that's offensive
line and all that stuff, but it has impacted his overall
production. He hasn't led the league in
rushing yards in a long time, but he has LED in rushing
attempts. But he's been less efficient.
Doesn't catch a lot of passes, right?
So it's all like a touchdowns argument.
And I think there's going to be people that are going to say,
OK, well are Baltimore, is Baltimore really going to give
him the league lead in rushing attempts like he had the last
two years in Tennessee? I don't know.
I mean I think a 30 year old back going in in round.
Two. Probably not.
But he should not be. He'll make up with that with
touchdowns, right? If he just if he just ends up
getting 16 Gus Edwards ass touchdowns.
That and to me that's what it is like.
I think people who want to select them or who will
inevitably select them there, they don't care about the
efficiency stuff they're saying. Gus Edwards scored 13 touchdowns
in this offense as a dusty 29 year old running back.
Derrick Henry's better than that.
Like the touchdown expectation. I think that's what you're
paying for. And we could talk about how that
might be a a big mistake to pay that kind of prices for a
volatile, you know, return on scoring.
But I think that's going to be the psychology of late second,
early 3rd Henry drafters. I just am not really that
interested. I mean, I I would be pretty
interested if he was cheaper, but I just like, can I take
Derek? I I literally, as we were doing
this exercise, I was like, when's the last time I even
noticed Derek Henry's name? I know I I that's what I let off
with. I don't even really think about
it but I think to to Sam's point and and that's that's a great
point Pete. I do I do think that's a sharp
take the this this chart exactly this is a touchdown chart like
he he isn't adding the yardage anymore to get to the 25 point
spike. He never really has much
receiving right. He's not adding enough yardage
with the T DS, but he's still getting those 20 point games
with, you know, a multiple TD game with whatever it is, 70
rushing yards or if he gets to 120 and and one TV or something
and a little bit of receiving. But he used to have 200 yard
rushing games where he could get to 25 point, you know, weeks
without even stacking up too many touchdowns.
I mean this to me is like, yeah, I mean he's so it's a good
point. By beat that I mean you will
still get some 20 point games off touchdowns alone.
I think the thing I'm wondering, Gretch is just like, is the last
two years really, Is there Henry being worse as a player or is it
just that Titans offense? I mean, last year when they
switched from Tannehill to Levis, like the offense really
was not firing on all cylinders. I I guess I questioned like, has
he really lost that yardage ability if Baltimore gives him
the touches? I mean, he should be extremely
efficient, just like we saw Gus Edwards be for, you know, five
straight years. I don't think, we think Gus
Edwards is that talented of running back, but he could be
extremely efficient in that offense.
Yeah, it takes a bit of a leap to be like, OK, Henry's not
going to hit the H Cliff and they're going to give him like
the full workload. But I guess I do see the upside
if that happens. And I think, yeah, for me, I
don't think he's going to be like a target player for me or
someone I'll be overweight on. But in sort of like anchor
running back builds where I go wide receiver, wide receiver get
Henry as my anchor running back like I can see ways in that.
Working out pretty well. I don't think he's hit the
Cliff, but I think Davis is right.
That like that can come at any time.
But Derrick Henry's a unique talent.
I mean, the guys that do hold on for longer than we expect are
usually guys that are outliers, right?
Yeah. Latavius Murray, you know, just
kind of like really unique sort of guys who just, I mean.
The like Latavius Murray didn't didn't lead the league in
rushing into his age 30 seasons. No, he just sent.
He just sent everyone's favorite James Cook to the bench on goal
line possessions as the literal oldest running back in in the
NFL. Here's the thing, any sort of
Derrick Henry analysis is so reductive because it literally
doesn't matter. It just comes down to does
Derrick Henry score a bunch of touchdowns or does he not?
And no one. He's 30 years old.
We're not changing our minds about Derek Henry.
Guess what? I'm not gonna wake up one day.
I mean, I took Derek Henry last year.
Yeah, you were a Derek Henry bowl last year.
What do you wake up and change your minds?
You woke up two days ago. Because he played.
He played the Houston Texans twice in the class.
Yeah, and then it turns out, it turns out that the Texans were
actually a good run defense. But like Henry is going to get
between 245 and 300 carries depending on how sensitive they
are to like his age. Just keep Mitchell like kind of
have a Taje Spears style role in this offense and if he scores 17
touchdowns the Faders will probably be.
You know the other thing for underdog stuff is what is the
Week 17 game for Baltimore gonna be?
Is it an attractive one? Is it a shitty one?
Like if is it a is. It a Are they?
Playing in a Dome, What's the weather?
Like. Your two biggest Week 17 takes
last year were don't play Browns Jets 'cause it's an El Nino
monsoon and also draft Erik Henry because.
Of the oh just don't play. It was don't play it was don't.
It was no outdoor games. I just I wanted as much Colts
Raiders as my little stomach could handle.
But if it's if it's if it's Raven, Steelers, outdoors, what
does that do? Like seriously, what is that?
Does that are are UD drafters logged in enough to be like off
of him as a result of that? I I'm curious.
I'm old enough. To be on.
It was D hember it was that's he got better in cold weather.
A defense Better when. It's better when it's cold.
Yeah, you'd be on him. You'd be like, the Ravens are
going to have to run the ball. Lamar Jackson can't throw in the
wind, is what they'll tell themselves.
OK. All right, I just looked this
up. Davis.
Adrian Peterson's the cop. Age 30 season led the NFL in
rushing attempts, yards and T DS.
That's the type, type of player that can still be that good at
age 30 and I mean you could argue.
Maybe I'm maybe I'm buying back in.
Maybe I just maybe I just maybe I just bought back in if.
I I'm not. Going to wake up, You mean in 25
seconds? I'm not going to change my.
Mind I just like the The deal for me is that there are all got
there are all all the wide receivers who go around him.
I can squint and be like, that's the guy you need, like Jalen
Waddle goes after him and I'm like such a waddle apologist
that I'm like, I got to just do it.
Yeah. That's a thing structurally like
you you receivers dry up in like round seven this year, like you
want you look back and you're like, I didn't want to take a
running back there. You want to be.
You want to be the chucklehead
taking Christian Watson in the seventh round because you really
needed another wide receiver. Like, no you don't.
I'd rather take some shares of Bijon in round one and then you
know take a a receiver in round three and but not load up on too
much early running back and that kind of thing.
Yeah, I think, I think that's the question.
And yeah, it's it'll be an interesting one with Henry to
see where his price moves. Let's move on to CJ Stroud.
We talked a lot about the Texans the past couple weeks.
We didn't actually talk much about their quarterback and
where his price should go. He's up nearly 10 spots to 52
overall. I think he's now going as like
the QB 4, five off the board, pretty close to your.
Dumbassery. Mahomes.
Well it's also it's not just Dumbassery, it's also Siegel's
fault who's been saying he should go ahead of Mahomes and
Lamar and like not even in that tier.
And he's he's saying that Stroud's like QB two and gonna
throw for 5050. So I I kind of blame.
Him. Sean.
I'm sorry.
I can't. I can't.
I cannot on board this. But I mean that what you need
with Stroud, right, is you need one of those like retro Tom
Brady 2007. Peyton.
Manning two, 2014 Aaron. Rodgers, 2000. 11 Yeah, you need
one of these insane pocket passer seasons that I guess we
saw it a bit with Brady on the box, but they're more so things
that have happened like a decade ago with the prime Aaron
Rodgers, Peyton Manning, breeze seasons like.
You call it 1050. Season like that, yeah.
But that's what Mahomes did in his second season and I think
that's sort of the the template as well.
The one thing I'll say is like you look at like Mahomes now,
he's not going to have a 5050 season because the Chiefs know
they have to play four playoff games every year.
Like they they are intentionally not pushing in the regular
season at this phase of their evolution.
The Texans are at this point where they're like, we're going
to go get Stefan Diggs right now.
We're going to go do all this stuff and see like, his pastimes
are going to rise in Year 2. They're going to see the
limitations. The Bills did this in in like
year two, year three of Josh Allen, right?
Like, this is the point in like, the team's evolution with a
young quarterback who's a clear hit where they do push, right?
And I mean, if it's going to happen for CJ Stroud in his
career, I would bet that it would happen in the first like
three to five seasons as opposed to, you know, six or eight years
down the road in at least in the modern NFL for for Manning and
Brady and those guys that happened later in their career.
But. Some of that was because of
passing trends not changing until later in those guys
career. But I think like if you're gonna
bet on it, you're too. CJ Stroud's a pretty good time
to bet on that type of season. I don't.
Find this crazy like I don't find this ADP crazy in like when
you frame it to where like we had the course correction, right
where like all those elite quarterbacks used to go way too
high then it pushed back. Then the market.
Understood. You push up the guys with the
rushing ceiling. So we get the Josh Allen's the
Jalen Hurts is going. And then we saw the high upside
packet pocket passers settle in that Round 5 range like everyone
did the Joe Burrow premium double with Chase and Higgins
and they take him in the fifth round.
Like we always take shots on that guy.
We did it with Herbert a couple years ago before things kind of
went S there of like, who is this guy that has the weapons
and the talent to have that prolific season like.
So to me Stroud being in this range, like historically over
the past couple years, that doesn't strike me as weird.
It's like the best wide receiver crew we've ever seen.
So I don't know. It seems like a fair price to me
relative to how the market has traditionally priced these
passers. Yeah, that's what I'm having a
hard time figuring out. Like I I wanted to have some hot
take that's like CJ Stroud has the best three wide receiver set
since I don't know, like historic, an historically good
three wide receiver set. But at the same time, like Tank
Dell was like a late Round 3 prospect that nobody thought
anything of. Nico Collins was like a nobody
until last year. Like, are these three wide
receivers really amazing, or is that just like Stroud being
amazing so? That's why you wouldn't.
Take Stroud because yeah, that's.
Why you would take Stroud. Noah Brown had a career high.
I don't. Wanna.
Yeah, I just don't wanna double count that, you know what I
mean? Be like strouds.
Awesome. And his receivers are amazing.
It's like you get into a little risk of like double counting
there, right? I think where I would get queasy
is if people were taking him ahead of Lamar in Josh Allen, in
Hertz and those guys that we know just have that nuclear
Komani. Why can't I talk Konami coat
ceiling? Whereas they're still respecting
that gap of saying, like, Stroud isn't gonna run a ton, he's
gonna have to get it done with his arm.
So yeah, I don't know. Yeah, the I'm OK with it if I
have, I mean in terms of the price.
If I have one of these wide receivers, I'm.
I'm gonna be so excited about the Texan stack.
It's gonna be hard for me to avoid Stroud in the strange, I
think. The note Sam that that you just
made, Nico Collins had a a 3.1 yards per out run last year,
Hadn't hit 1.7 in either of his first two seasons so almost
doubled his career high. Noah Brown had never hit 1.25
yards per out run 'cause he's Noah Brown and he had a 1.94 he
on on almost 300 routes he had like a 2.0 yards per.
I mean, he's right below 2 point.
He had like, back-to-back 150 yard games, right?
Yeah, yeah. I mean so I think it's pretty
fair to say it was Stroud and then you add digs to the mix and
you're like, I mean he's already elevating these other dudes.
He's so vertical with his passing he pushes down field and
I mean at least last year defenses couldn't really stop it
as a rookie right out of the gate you know and they've gotten
better they've they've been able to add this offseason in a lot
of ways. My one of my concerns is the
Texans are too good because they added to Neil Hunter.
They added a couple other front seven guys, that AD tackle A
linebacker. They already had the Defensive
Rookie of the Year on the other end.
So now they have two really good edge rushers, really good front
seven. But I think the Texans are like
a legit contender in the AFC. And if they're like too good in
the AFC S, maybe he doesn't have to throw a lot in second halves
of games and stuff like that. I mean, I don't know.
We did this. We did this with Burrough.
We did this with Herbert. CJ Stroud is a really good
quarterback. He's got good wide receivers.
The Burroughs in what? The guys who No, not for
fantasy. It didn't.
Not QBQ B6. Joe Burrow did not work for
fantasy. Yeah, where he was going like
two years ago. Is that what you're referring
to? I think he was in.
Like, I think I'm referring to a second season when he.
No, that certainly. Worked 46134.
That that worked, but the last year his.
Price the following season, I think, yeah.
He was more like an eighth round pick in in the second season.
Is that right? Yeah.
Maybe even later. That was like before we knew Joe
Burrow was like, good. Almost right?
I don't. Know there's just a clear like
Dak Prescott goes 30 picks later around a bunch of shit guys you
don't really want to take. And what if I made you set the
line right now? Fantasy points, CJ Stroud versus
Dak Prescott. You'd be like, oh, I'll totally
take Stroud and I'll be like, OK, I'll give you plus 120 or
I'll get, I'll I get plus 120 on Dak and you'd be like, I don't,
I don't really want to do that. One other ADP wrinkle to all of
this that is gonna be unique to the Stroud stuff.
You know, relative to the Borough premium double S is you
would often see sometimes a borough slide if like whoever
had one of Jamar or T was just like, push it and then the other
say one took, you know, Josh Allen or something, then it's
all of a sudden like, Oh, no one wants unstacked Borough.
That's gonna happen far, far less likely with Stroud having
three different stacking candidates.
In the other chalk thing that I already see in big board drafts,
it's like every other draft someone takes Higgins and
Collins at the 2-3 turn and then Burrow at the 4-5 turn.
Like, it's so comfy, it's so cozy.
And then even if you let Burrow go past the 4-5 turn, the tank
Dell drafter in the 5th saying hi there.
Yeah, I'm scooping that up, so I don't see his ADP really ever
falling out of the fifth round. Bureau 20/22 was also super good
by the way. I think both 2021 and 2022 he
was a pretty big hit at ADP, probably had plus win win.
The only difference in 2022 is both out or all of Allen Hertz
and Mahomes went off that year. But I mean, yes, that's.
The thing that's The thing is you cannot if CJ strout OK, if
Hertz, Allen, Lamar and Mahomes all come close to ceiling
seasons. I mean, Hertz and Allen don't
even have to get their ceiling seasons.
They just walk into 22 fantasy points per game.
But if Mahomes and Lamar both regressed towards having closer
to their career averages, like remember Lamar just like stopped
scoring touchdowns last year. They were just like, you know
what Lamar? You don't need to score any
touchdowns for like a four week stretch.
And I mean enough has been said about Mahomes his last season.
Like I I think the I've been what I've been thinking about
with ADP is what I'm going to do right when best ball Mania 5
opens and like where I think the ADP is most markedly like to be
wrong and what this is a spot where I see where so we add
round one wide receiver X worthy Mitchell whoever to the Chiefs
maybe they take a date maybe they take a day three guy
whatever. I just my anticipation is that
the Chiefs offense is they're not going to do the 2023 thing
again. I think they realized they flew
too close to the sun throwing pad out there with a bunch of
guys who could not play and you know they let Snead go.
I don't think the the defense is going to be near as good this
upcoming season. I I am anticipating a huge
regression to the career mean for Mahomes where he's like they
scored 21 points a game last year.
They scored a full touchdown less than they did in their 4th
Super Bowl season. I I that is not going to happen
again. The.
Last thing I'll say that's about and then and then move on is I
think it what what's really critical here is whether the
Texans remain insistent on being a balanced offense like they
were last year. They were, they were very close
to league average in terms of past attempts per game.
Or if they say, hey we got Stefan Diggs, we're gonna let CJ
Stroud sling it 384041 times per game.
That's what you really need to have these elite pocket passer
ceilings. You need to get that 38 plus
attempts per game. Last year, the Texans weren't.
Well, Sam, what you really need is you need the organizational
buy in that they want him to win MVP, which we have seen happen
with Burrow and we've seen happen with Allen, where they're
like we want you to generate enough statistics to win MVP or
to win or to be All Pro or whatever.
And I don't know enough about any of the Texans people to know
if that's something they're interested in doing.
Yeah, you. I think you have to assume in
year 2 they're gonna pass more when they were that successful.
I think it's the default it should go.
Off I think too. But they also paid Joe Mixon
like a 50 million guaranteed for some reason.
So it's like what the Hell's going on in the Houston?
Let's talk Dalton Kincaid, the the Liam Memorial ADP riser,
he's up 8 spots. I know.
I think, Pete, I've heard you talk about elite tight end being
a big part of your strategy so far this year.
Does Kincaid fall into that group of guys that you're
targeting? He does.
I I I do think Liam just like legitimately ruined Dalton
Kincade for me because I just find myself licking every other
elite tight end other than Dalton Kincade.
He's probably the guy of all of those pits, Kittle, McBride,
Andrews, Kelsey, that I have the least of.
But yes, I in general, I'm very much in on all of these prices.
And I think I'm just kind of burned in that.
I wasn't drafting him a ton before this trade or you know,
with Diggs and now he's rocking it up in Price and I'm just
like, I'll sit the Kincaid thing out for now.
What's the point? What are you?
What are you hoping for with Dalton Kincaid?
I guess that he scores touchdowns somehow.
I guess. You're what do you mean that
he's their number one? He's Josh Allen's #1 receiver.
I don't think he. I don't think he will.
Be What do you think's catching passes from Josh Allen, Curtis
Samuel? Like what?
What are they doing? I mean, I expect Curtis Samuel
to have more receiving yards than Dalton Kincaid in 2024.
Isn't the Dalton Kincaid thesis more yards and catches than it
is touchdowns? Isn't that?
Kind of. How they how they used him last
year. I mean, Dave said.
What's the point? The point is they don't have a a
#1 receiver like they don't have anyone.
The Khalil Shakir's gonna be the guy who's gonna be the dude.
They just drafted him in the first round last year.
Round, Round one wide receiver is gonna.
I mean, I guess as long as it's not Keyon Coleman.
If it's Keyon Coleman that might, that might that might
return me around to being bullish on on Kincaid because I
don't think Coleman can play in the NFL.
But my deal with Kincaid, and this is this is going around in
the Brock Bowers discourse right now, is like, I thought Kincaid
was a bad first round pick. I I thought he was not the
archetype of a guy you should take in the first round anyways
because he is. I mean he's like less athletic
than like an Evan Ingram you know he he did not like he
didn't do all the testing and the testing he did do was not
good. He also, I mean he was a he was
a 23 year old his final season at Utah this season that got him
drafted he he's going to turn 25 in this season.
So it's not like the Kyle Pitts is like still 19 years old like
I just, I just kind of think Kincaid is like.
Tell people 19 years old. It's.
A. And then Jason Tatum, yeah.
Yeah, it's an NBA joke that flew over.
Greg just said Dalton Kincaid is like peak Jason Witten, It's
like what he is for the Bills, and I'm just super not.
Interested. OK, but if you talk about the
Bills, we were just talking about whether the Texans would
really push past volume. This has been a high pass right
over expected team every year the last however long Four
Seasons I'm looking at Josh Allens attempts right now.
He's thrown at least 567 passes each of the last four years.
That's a year in 2022 where he missed a game or I guess they
actually had that game cancelled that year.
But in terms of past times per game I'm I'm quite confident
it's up near the league lead in every season so far they lost
from I'm not a vacated targets guy.
This will be the only time I'll offseason all all I'll note this
but other than just Stefan digs 160 targets.
Gabe Davis had 81 targets last year too.
They don't have anybody to catch the ball on a really high volume
passing offense. Curtis Samuel is gonna get the
ball. Curtis Samuel is gonna.
Get No, I think he's a good pick too.
I think it's crazy that the the Bills only have one dude in the
top 180P and then Samuel, and I mean Shakur's coming up as well.
Whoever the first round rookie. My point is is also in a great
spot. But Kincade can succeed
alongside them. They have so many available pass
attempts that that have to go somewhere, right?
I I think kind of what I'm saying is I don't even know if
he's capable of being a guy who can handle that level of volume
on an offense that wins games. Like I like I I don't know of
building an offense around 7.9. A dot Dalton Kincaid throws
leads them to where they want to go.
I mean maybe I'm wrong, but like I so if my prior is, I didn't
like him really as a prospect. Thought he was a bad first round
pick. He got a lot of empty
receptions. I mean, Sam, you want to talk
about a receptions merchant? Kincaid was a real receptions
merchant as a rookie. And you know the other.
The other weird thing is, you know they don't have any wide
receivers. They signed Dawson Knox to his
contract extension. They're going to still be
playing a ton of 12 personnel I think this upcoming year, which
for touchdown stuff is not that good for him.
So on the receptions merchant thing I did, I was sort of
looking into historically good rookie tight end seasons.
And over the last decade there's been 11 tight ends to clear 500
yards in a season. And I included Kelsey in this.
It was technically a second season, but he was red shirted
his first season. He was on IR the whole year so
but the the hits in this group of 11 are Kelsey Andrews and
Kittle obviously smashes elite tight ends.
Then there's six guys that are. What do those guys have in
common, Sam? Yeah, they're they're good.
Yeah, exactly. I'll, I'll get to that.
There's there's six guys that are sort of too early to tell.
Maybe we can argue on this, but I threw LaPorte and Kincaid in
this bucket since they're rookies.
Then Pitts Ingram's just kind of a middling veteran.
Then we have Fryer, Muth and Noah Fan, who are probably less
likely to work out at this point.
And then there's two kind of complete boss, Tim Wright from
Tampa and and Chris Herndon from The Jets.
And out of these 11, Kincaid ranks consistently towards the
back end in terms of sort of any type of efficiency, what what's
that? Group that that includes Chris
Herndon and Tim Wright and also Travis Kelsey like.
What just all all all rookie tight ends to clear 500 yards
the rookie season. OK.
People forget. People forget Chris Herndon.
People forget. Yeah, it's just a it's a really
small sample that is like it's a really wide skill set that I
don't know if it's going to be really predictive of anything.
No, no, I'm not. I'm not saying that it's
predictive of anything. I'm just saying that in this
group Kincaid is 10th out of 11 in yards per reception, 7th in
yards per route run, ninth in a dot 8th and yak per reception.
So of these guys, most of them my my point is most of them got
there on sort of elite per route efficiency and earning the ball,
you know farther down the field. Kincaid basically just got there
on compiling a ton of receptions.
So I am kind of skeptical. Like what?
What is the ceiling of that? Can he just like do what he did
last year but at an even higher level, just rack up even more
678-A dot catches? Or does that game sort of have a
ceiling, which is where I I kind of fall somewhat in line with
Davis's concerns? Is like, is building the entire
ship out of Dalton Kincaid, Is that a way to build a functional
offense or is he more so capped at just sort of like, yeah, you
know, Jason Witten, Dalton Schultz level.
Play I don't think you build the whole ship out of him, but
there's some other work that I've seen.
I can't remember who it is but somebody in the fantasy
community that that does head and stuff, I know they've
they've shown some like one of the big things about tight end
hits is when they're one of the top two like target earners on
their offense and something that I I heard this originally like.
Three years like. You put in the back of my mind
like so if it's like Dalton Schultz has three really good
receivers on his team, there's no path for him to be a top two
target earner on his offense. Dalton Kincaid.
Feels like a. Lock at this point, I mean even
with a first round rookie. So it's it's something that
that's another group that historically has been really
positive. If you can just get targets from
this position at tight end, it's good.
There's only like 4 guys that get like 100 targets a year at
Titan, he's going to get 100 targets.
Just to frame it on the ADP conversation again and I, you
know, I agree with Gretch too, that like the Dalton Kincaid
Bowl thesis, I really don't think should have even changed
that much after the digs thing like there was already a ton of
targets there. So my argument is this ADP jump
is the classic clay case of underdog market double counting,
something where it's like guy move, therefore a change has to
be happening. And so I would argue that this
is like the pico top for his ADP and that when we know they're
going to draft a wide receiver and it's probably going to be a
name that people relatively like, you know if it's a Brian
Thomas or whoever. And then he's probably going to
come like closer to where he was previous the jump.
So that that's my only thing now of like I would rather let it
seesaw back to where he was. Yeah, that should understand.
That was Andrew Cooper coupe fiasco that I I thought it might
have been that name. I also want to say on you guys's
A dot .3 point 9A dot weeks one to 97.95 by my numbers weeks 10
to 18. They did all all that stuff in
the first half of the year. This is one of those trends that
we have, the primacy effect, where like this is what was
happening in the first half of the year.
And so we lock in. Like that's what his profile
was. They expanded what they were
doing with Dalton Kincaid in the second-half of the season.
That was the first half of his rookie year.
And then they actually did have him at like a legitimate tight
end, a dot of 7.9. That's actually slightly above
the average for tight ends in the second-half of the season.
His full season numbers show a really low a dot, but he was
good in the second-half of the season like he was, I think a
little bit better than the first half.
So anyway, that's another note I want to throw out there.
That's fair. It's just it's getting to a
point like when he's like 3 or 4 picks away from Mark Andrews and
like 10 picks ahead of George Kittle.
I just have the thought on my back of my mind.
It's just like, are we overthinking and taking him, you
know, over guys that we just know are really good and have
been consistently good for five years?
Like it's. Viciously not naming he who must
Not be Named amongst the tight ends.
Ultimately this is what it is, is there's Kincaid people and
there's pits people and there are not good people on both
sides. There are no good people in this
conversation, and I I am a pit slappy.
I obviously understand what I'm going into, like I'm gonna end
up, I'm gonna end up hating the Zach Robinson guy.
As much as I hated Arthur Smith, I'm talking about his.
Preschool buddy like that. Yeah, it look, it is.
It is what it is. I I can't.
I cannot have Kincaid because I have pits ranked higher and I
prefer Pitts's range of outcomes a lot.
Well, the the guy you should have behind both of them is
Andrews. No.
Andrews is like a lock. Andrews is.
I take Andrews over McBride. Go look at his profile last year
and how it changed in in a new offense.
Little bit different. Little bit different.
So, so yes. But the the wide receivers that
we thought was going to be good, like all they're they're going
to play all this 11% like, no, they all suck.
Beckham's gone. Bateman stinks.
It's the whole plane is built out of say Flowers and Marc
Andrews. But you are you are right Greg.
His A dot came down like 2 yards from his previous career low.
His target Sprout run also came down with a lower A dot.
So like if you do like a weighted target sprout run way
down. There's still a lot of volume
there too but it's not like that much better of a like when we
well Sam said like these guys that we know are good and I I
guess my argument would be we know Mark Andrews is good but
like his usage can shift around too.
He's in a new offense last year and it it did change and.
Every season's independent. The way that I look at it, I
mean, I think you have to project forward, right?
Sam, like circling back full circle on where we started.
Do you, what do you think in general about the overall tight
end prices let's say from like Kelsey to Kittle like this, you
know mid elite tier here. Do you, do you think those are
efficient? Do you think that it's a buying
opportunity? Yeah.
I mean I think overall I'm, I'm overweight on them.
I I I think, I mean we've talked about Pitts enough.
We don't have to get into that. I'm I'm pretty in on Kittle
Andrews, McBride, Kelsey like full stop.
I think Kincaid is fine and I'm I'm probably like want to be a
little underweight Pitts. But I do agree overall like
macro that it's a buying opportunity on these guys.
And yeah it's just like this weird thing where you never
really have to reach on them because one of them's always
going to be floating around. So yeah, I think it probably
doesn't move like I don't know what's going to cause it to move
up from an ADP perspective. So yeah, it feels, it feels like
a pretty solid buy for me. Let's talk these rookie wide
receivers they're both up, which I can only imagine is just sort
of pre draft excitement. There's there's obviously no no
news driving Malik Neighbors or Marvin Harrison junior up I
guess well there. There is probably news on
Neighbors, which is this continued drum beat, that some
teams view Neighbors as the number one wide receiver versus
Marvin Harrison Junior. That's what's driving him up.
The Harrison stuff is just boredom.
Yeah, it's just, it's just boredom, I think, and we'll
probably see it cracked a little bit post draft.
But I did want to get in the conversation of landing spots
for these guys because I think compared to the normal wide
receiver, like usually the top wide receivers are going more so
in the teens. These guys are both projected to
be like top five, top 7 picks. So we do have a little bit more
certainty about their landing spots than we do with the
typical rookie wide receiver I put together.
So here here are all picks from pick three to pick ten.
I think with like almost absolute certainty none of these
guys are dropping past pick 10. Obviously a trade up could
happen from some team but I think that's pretty unlikely and
I I wrote this article, you can check it out and establish the
run about the top rookie wide receiver landing spot.
So I have that ranked here. I have you know Chargers and
Cardinals being top three landing spots.
You know Patriots, Giants and Jets being decent landing spots.
Some spots of the Titans and Bears I think are quite bad.
And when I look at this, it's just like, man, if these guys
land where they're likely to land, Cardinals, Chargers, and
Giants, like those are just. I think even Giants.
Like it sounds gross, but there's just no wide receivers
there that they're immediately going to project for such an
insanely high target share that it's not even it's not even that
bad of a landing spot, even though it it sounds gross.
The only thing you're like avoiding with these guys is like
these landmines and the Titans and bears, which I do think are
like true landmine landing spots for their year one fantasy
production. But if you don't get that like
it, it's just it just looks pretty good here.
So I'll, I'll stop ranting. Anybody have thoughts on landing
spots for these guys and whether it's like appropriately priced
in? I mean, Giants is such a dusty
spot if the offensive line is as bad as it was last year.
Yeah, I kind of disagree that they'd be 10th.
I think I would take the the Bears landing spot over the
Giants straight up you get Caleb Williams.
You do have a lot of target. I I see where you're going from
the project projections angle and it being easy to project
more volume in the Giants. But like the fact that you'd
have a a better offense and a better quarterback and it
usually leads to higher efficiency.
I mean like if they land with the Bears, they're going to be
like the the tank Dell of the Chicago passing game would be
the theory, right? I mean, that doesn't guarantee
that Caleb Williams is going to do what CJ Stroud did, but
they're still going to be the the clear number three in the
three-way passing game. I mean, that seems pretty solid.
Yeah, we've also seen another LSU wide receiver go to a Giants
team in round one with perceived bad quarterback play who had one
of the best rookie wide receiver seasons of all time, earning a
ton of volume and doing a lot after.
Wow. Where where is Bill Barnwell on
the league Neighbors I I got to figure.
It out. One thing on the I guess on the
eight I think I may be closer to, I don't.
I don't mind the giant spot. And one thing I've heard said
too that does give me a little confidence is that like, Dabal's
not an idiot, you know? And like, he will build the
offense out of Malik Neighbors if they spend this high of a
pick on him. So that's kind of exciting.
And like, isn't the whole thesis with Malik neighbors and the
whole reason he's even inching up into the Marvin Harrison
conversation because of what he does after the catch?
Like he's just such a dynamite yak guy, which if he's getting
schemed, you know, 7-8 targets a game.
Like you're the lightest scrimmage and just letting him
ball out like that sounds pretty fun to me for fantasy.
Yeah, I also push back on the Bears.
Like, I I do feel pretty good about it being a bottom 10
landing spot. I mean, DJ Moore and Keenan
Allen, you have to really squint to see a world in which they're
not just eating up a huge share of their team's targets, And I
get that. I don't know, like I get it's a
bit of a projections angle and we're looking towards the end of
the season, but we've seen rookie wide receivers blocked by
veterans like that happens all the time.
People wanted to ignore it last year with JSN and now that's
like the entire excuse for some people as to why he wasn't good
as a rookie. We're also talking about a
rookie quarterback. Like, I love Caleb Willens as a
prospect, but it is really few and far between that we get the
CJ Stroud rookie seasons. It's way more likely you get the
Trevor Lawrence rookie season, then you get the CJ Stroud
rookie season, just from like a probability standpoint.
So I do, I guess like I can see the ultimate sealing case.
It it works better for the Bears than it does for Giants, but I
think in most outcomes, I feel pretty solidly better about the
Giants. Those.
I mean those those are not like controversial points that you
made. I guess I would just argue that
it kind of depends what you're looking for because I feel, I
mean I I agree with you especially about the rookie
quarterback stuff and and I don't think we can just
guarantee especially just from a volume perspective that Caleb
Williams is going to be able to elevate multiple receivers right
out of the gate. But I guess I would just say
from, and I, I, I agree with you and Pete's points about the
Giants too. But from 10th to 25th, it's
probably just not a meaningful difference, right?
Like there's some spots that are very clearly hits.
They have a great quarterback in place.
They have target volume available.
There's some spots like I would agree with the Titans, I, I
don't want to land with like probably not a ton of target
volume and I don't know if the quarterback's any good, you
know, So it's kind of those two things when they're both going
against you, it's bad. I think, you know, for the, like
another point about the Bears thing is just like when you get
that crowded of a room and the only thing is target volume,
that's holding them down. There is a case that like
injuries can open things up, right?
Like Keenan Allen's been banged up the last couple years.
I think it's a big reason why he's still going where he's
going. I think he should be going
higher, but people expect that he'll miss a few games with a
hamstring. And I saw something on Twitter
the other day that was like he's one of the highest expected
injury, you know, some, one of those injury predicting things.
That said he's one of the expect, highest expected guys to
miss some time. So when you get these things,
it's like, oh, my point is I'm elite neighbors level talent.
These guys are both considered to be like generational, which
is definitely the definition of generational.
There's two generational prospects in the same class.
I think that's how that works. You put that guy even alongside
the argument is they could be as good as Keenan Allen or DJ Moore
in a couple of years potentially right away.
Some some guys are that good right away and and these two are
they're as prospects talked. About as if they could be on
that level that makes sense. Curious what you guys think.
Like I I think whatever you want to call the best landing spot,
whether it's the Cardinals or Chargers, I think for me, those
are pretty clearly the top. Two, it's definitely not the
Chargers, right? Like the Chargers are gonna
throw like 417 forward passes. If they take, I'm like imagine
them taking a wide receiver at #5 overall, how is that not a
clear signal that they? Want that's a massive hit?
You're out of your mind. We can't.
We can't be that accurate on our our predictions of of volume.
I do think you're right. That's the most likely outcome
for the Chargers. But you also have a guarantee of
a a quarterback that can help the efficiency of the receiver
and the only target competition is Josh Palmer and Quinton
Johnston. Like this.
These guys aren't good and. It's it's like, I I understand
those concerns, but like, at least when you do the Patriots
thing, you have both those concerns, right?
They're going to just run the ball a shit ton and you have a
bad quarterback. I mean, this is Justin Herbert,
and he has proven that he can feed an alpha wide receiver.
I think even with Jim Harbaugh's influence, like this guy's going
to get fed. Yeah, that's my thought too.
Whoever goes to whoever goes to the Chargers is going to have a
good fine season. There are gonna be some.
They'll get routes right away, which not every.
We'll get routes right away, which.
Is, Yeah. Can't you see Harbaugh being a
Hardo about that, though? A little bit?
Can't you see Harbaugh being like, work hard enough?
Did I see Jim Harbaugh being a Hardo?
Yes. I don't even have to squint.
But don't you think you'll hate Quint Johnston more than
whoever? I mean, the advantage is Malik
Neighbors shows up and he's is is Jim Harbaugh going to be a
hard O on Neighbors or on Quentin Johnston?
He's got to pick one of two young.
Players I can see. I can see Harbaugh making QJ
like his pet project of being like I'm going to rehabilitate
you son. We are going to we are going to
make you an NFL ball player. I mean I just I am so Chargers
phobic to the point that to the point that I don't even like
clicking Justin Herbert as quarterback 14 which is like so
clearly a screaming value. It's like probably the best
value on the board at quarterback and he and I'm just
like, do I have to, do I have to?
Do I have to back door Justin Herbert and Quentin Johnson on
this team? It's so brutal.
When you said that, it it it just clicked for me that the
whole thing with Quentin Johnson is how big of a game he had
against Michigan against Jim Harbaugh.
Yes, in the College Football Playoff when TCU won that
shootout, he couldn't. Oh man.
Jim Harbaugh. Like he like he remembers that
this dude crushed him in that game.
Yes, he This is literally how it's it's literally how he's
making decisions. Did Neighbors or Harrison ever
go against Michigan in college? We should, we should look into
that, Yeah. Harrison did Harrison.
Definitely. And he wasn't very good.
He wasn't very good. OK, he's taking neighbors over,
Harrison then heard here. 1st. Let's hit on some followers
here, Rasheed Rice. He continues to sort of drop
like a stone in these drafts. He's now down to pick 43.
This is obviously off the aggravated assault charged from
his reckless speeding incident a couple weeks ago.
Yeah, let's. Harrison had a Davis.
Harrison had 118 and ATD and 120 of the TD.
It is too much against Michigan. Bust.
Below. Below, that's below his per game
averages, so. Against an elite defense, he had
118 in both games and ATD in both games.
I guess, I guess I just remembered Ohio State losing and
assumed he did not do that good to be honest.
Yeah. We we can keep this somewhat
shorter than our eyes. I think it's been talked about a
lot, but does this aggravated assault thing worry you guys?
Taking him like every draft right now, he's gonna miss, he's
gonna miss like 2 games, he's gonna miss like 2 games.
I'm taking him a lot too, but I don't think this is a wrong
price. I mean, this gets into a whole
discussion that I think is really interesting around risk.
And like at the time that we make these decisions, we can't
quantify what this risk is. And so they wind up going in a
no man's land where they're guaranteed to have either been
undervalued or overvalued. But what like the the risk that
gets brought into play here changes the opportunity cost
equation which is why the player drops and that doesn't mean the
ADP is wrong. Now when we have to make the
decision, there's uncertainty and we're tasked with trying to
define that. If we have no issue with Rashid
Rice's uncertainty, which I with the specifics of this case with
the fact that the charges didn't include anything with the guns
rumors or anything with like DUI related alcohol, substance abuse
related. It was all like reckless driving
and endangerment which is still serious.
But the stuff that I've seen with the the specifics around
this seem that like it's probably not going to be a
massive response in terms of the suspension and everything that's
a guess. But there is risk and so the the
shift in ADP and everything I I there's the discussion on this
drives me nuts because people are always like his price is
wrong and it's like yes his price is going to prove to have
been wrong. When we have more information
it's either going to be higher or it's going to be way lower.
If he gets to spend for like the whole season he's not going to
get drafted. But there's a small amount of
risk in all of these off the field situations.
We can't quantify it and the opportunity cost equation does
change, like where we should be drafting the player.
Yeah. My thing is that I don't think
the risk is going to go away anytime soon.
This is going to be a prolonged thing where there's going to be
uncertainty throughout the offseason.
And as that happens, I think we'll get some incremental news
about the legal proceedings, but it's not going to be decided.
So where I am is I think this is a good price to be taking him.
I don't think like I'm not racing to the board and picking
him every single time just because I think we're going to
get this discount for a while. It's going to last for a long
period of time. So if you want to take a really
risk on strategy and be like I'm taking rice every time, I think
that's fine. I just think there is this like
risk like you, you put it graduates like unquantifiable
right now, what exactly it is. So I do understand the decrease
in ADP. Two thoughts on that too.
I think the other thing is for why his ADP could get
significantly cheaper than this is if this event makes them even
more likely to spend their first round pick on a wide receiver.
Like I don't know what the true odds of that were before, like
it could have been maybe closer to a coin flip like if this
pushes them more to that. I think similar to the Kincaid
stuff with like double counting, like I think people would
naturally want to push Rice back a little bit when they add a
wide receiver. So if you couple that with the
legal proceedings drawing out to me, you have like 2 events that
I think can only push his ADP down.
Whereas it's hard to envision anything getting cleared up with
this legal wise that would cause him to move up.
Which does just seem we're going to have like a slow steady push
down until like there's a someone saying like I'm not
letting him go any further than this.
I'm already doing that and sounds like Davis is already
doing that. I had him as a first, second
turn value based on his profile before any of this came up, I
thought he was pretty significantly, yeah.
Add a first round wide receiver in there to take away all the
dust Skymore, Mccole Hardman, Justin Watson, Noah Gray targets
and you've got to like 120 targets right there, which
leaves Kelsey and Rice like completely unbothered.
And if my base supposition is right that the Chiefs are going
to want to score more points this year.
Rice is a huge and like I guess my vast experience has been in
in the past I've played situations like this too
conservatively and then have just, you know looked at the
giga chads who said I don't care.
I'm probably going to lose anyways and they have a bunch of
cheap Tyree kill or or whoever. Did you just call?
Yourself a giga Chad for having invented the I'm going to lose
anyways. No, no, I'm saying, I'm saying
the opposite. I'm saying I've been unwilling
to be a giga Chad in the past and yeah.
You're sophisticated auto drafter the past couple years.
Right. Sophisticated auto drafter.
And I mean Rice. Of the picks after like 5th to
8th round, I mean he offers the best asymmetric upside because
the market already told you we think this guy's worth the
second round pick. But now, because we think
there's a chance he misses four games, he's now not and.
And there's people like that that in the chat, this Mr.
Popinski said, didn't he flee the scene with Glocks and drugs
like that was the rumor that's that they when they charged him.
I actually was more comfortable taking Rashi Rice after that and
I saw him starting to slide in my in my slow.
I happened to be right in that range of my drafts in in all my
slow drafts. And he was falling behind 80P
and everything. He won at that point because
these charges came out. And then if you were watching
the legal people on Twitter, they're like, yeah, we knew
charges were coming. This isn't a huge surprise, and
it's actually vaguely good news because nothing about Glocks or
like about guns or drugs was in the charges.
The charges were all like reckless endangerment and stuff
like that, which is still. Serious, well, aggravated
assault was one of the charges which if if you can put the odds
of him actually being charged with this at like really low,
which I think is fair. But that charge does come with
minimum two years in prison. So I I agree with you, Gretchen.
But it didn't. It didn't have a the gut, the
gun thing. No, no.
Yeah. No.
Yeah. Yeah, exactly.
None of that stuff. But still they that was to me a
little bit of news that like, OK there there is this downside
risk that exists. I think it's extremely low he
gets charged with this. I'm just saying like I'm not a
lawyer. Yeah.
And we don't, we don't know. So.
That's fair quote, criminal as that's.
Fair, that's. Fair.
Criminal. That's I mean if yeah, like we
saw it with like I didn't think classical burst when he shot
himself was actually going to go to jail for that and he end up
going to jail for it in the middle of his NFL career.
Like like it's. Crazy, I forgot.
It was insane. And and we, I mean, how many
times have we seen this with like the wheels of justice
specifically for the NFL just moving at a molasses pace.
I mean how it's like every single example.
When do when do one of these ever get resolved quickly?
It's. It's never.
And one more thing I'll just say about Rice's profile is if
you're really concerned about Rice and not willing to take him
at this ADP, 'cause this is another team where there's a lot
of targets that are going to go around Brought in Marquis Brown,
but he's probably not a huge target under more of a vertical
kind of weapon. They might use him around the
line of scrimmage, but he's never been like a massive target
share guy and there's there's enough for him and other people.
If you're not really into Rice at this price, then I would
argue that you think Travis Kelsey is a screaming value
cause. Part of the Rice part of the
Rice upside is that Kelsey's getting so old and we're
drafting him in the fourth round and he's no longer that clear
guy in the intermediate range that Rice is the dude that takes
over those targets. That was why I was so excited
about Rice. But if you're not in on Rice,
then you should be in on Kelsey. For sure, yeah.
Kelsey fell off last year, except when he was their best
player by far in their playoff run, so that's, yeah.
More and more people are saying this all the.
Time, you know? I think we all agree too.
Like if Davis's thesis from earlier of Mahomes regressing
back to the mean as far as like the passing output and all that,
like there is room for multiple of these guys to eat for sure,
you know, like, yeah, it doesn't have to be like an alpha dog and
then everyone else is just scraps.
Pete, I know you maybe. Had AI got a dip out?
Yeah. OK, cool.
If you, Davis and Gretch have time two more players I wanted
to hit on see you. Guys, letter PP, thanks for
joining us and I think if you mention it, but for anyone who
doesn't know we're not doing a a ship chasing on on Thursday like
normal. I just want to.
Prep it. Prep it for the five hour draft
stream. That's right, the draft stream
is the next one. Yeah, Romeo Dubs this, this
whole Packers wide receiver situation is an interesting one
I wanted to throw up here. So the comparison of it's either
talked about as four guys. I threw Melton on here for fun
because he did have a legitimate role down the stretch last year
so I added him. But these five guys, you know,
range from Jaden Reed at ADP around 60 to Beau Melton,
basically undrafted here. I have sort of the yards per out
run, targets per out run, fantasy points per game and
their route rate in both games played last year and in the
playoffs. And I I thought it was most
interesting when I did this. So you know, Packers in the
playoffs, you know they're, they're facing the Cowboys and
the 49ers, everything's on the line.
They're trying to make the NFC championship game and who is
their clear starting wide receiver in terms of routes?
It's Romeo Dubs. He's at 81%.
You know Watson was coming back from injury over the past couple
weeks. He's down at 40.
Reid is just that 60 ish percent over those two games.
I just thought that. Reid.
Reid was hurt, too. Yeah.
Was he banged up, 'cause he didn't, He didn't miss any time?
It was a little bit of a surprise.
It was a little bit of a surprise, a legit.
Game time decision. I don't think so.
I think it was a surprise that his route rate was this low
cause in all of our playoff contests.
I remember Leone being like it. We we like.
We played a decent amount of read and we were surprised at
his route rate, like it was something after the fact that
Leone highlighted to us. He had a rib injury, so from
week. I don't think it was a
legitimate game that was. Earlier in the season that he
was a game time decision, right? Wasn't that like from?
From Week 14 on, he goes 42 percent, 31 percent, 60%, 46
percent, 61% of the snaps he He suffered that rib injury that
caused him to miss Week 16, and he never got back to full
touches after. But, but I guess my point is, so
I have the route rate in games played last year and I realize
there's some injury stuff in there as well but it's not his
route rate in games played last year was also 60%.
Like he was very rarely a full time player like all of last
year. That that's you can take that in
two ways right? You can be like that's a little
bearish maybe there's just going to be this messy rotation next
year or you could say hey he's the most efficient on a yards
per out run, targets per out run basis.
They're going to scale him up next year.
I just think my take is like, I think this Packers thing is
gonna be like a messy 4. It's gonna be and.
Rotation and I'm not sure. Like, I I love the the
archetypal bets of the Year 2 breakouts, but I think I lean
towards like Watson, dubs, Wicks, even Melton last round
shots. Like, I don't know, man.
Like the the Jaden Reid thing, I think is just gonna be so, so
frustrating next year, 'cause they have no reason to relegate
any of these other guys. Like Melton and Wicks played
awesome in their limited roles last year, right?
Like I don't. Know is awesome.
Wix. Wix was a good college player I
have. Let's see here.
Yeah, he's got 25% Wix across 150 teams.
I think he's a really good pick. I in my draft so far, I took a
lot of receivers in Jane Reed's range.
I not only didn't draft him I never even consider drafting him
at that price. I'm completely in agreement
here. I think the thing that Reid and
Watson have going for them is they both have unique skill sets
in a way that if you think about a traditional 3 receiver set I
do think Reid's going to be on the field for those rules.
But I I think you make a good point Sam that like he's that's
not 100% route rate kind of guy or even necessarily 80%.
He's a he's a slot guy that comes off in some of the two
tight end stuff. He's going to be a motion guy
though. He's going to get some
manufactured touches around the line of scrimmage.
That's going to help the targets per out run and some of that.
And he was efficient last year. But it is a profile to me that's
like last year was more like an 80th percentile outcome.
He was efficient on this role, but I don't know how the role
expands the way that you described it.
And so to be drafting him at this price to me is like it's
baking in too much of last year as if that was like a median and
there's more room to grow. It's kind of basically what you
just said. I do think he stays in that role
and I think Watson stays in his vertical role as the most
athletic of the three and the, you know first round draft
capital, all of that. So to me, I I do the tricky part
for me I want to be in on the cheaper bets for the reasons you
said. But I think Dubs and Wicks are
in some respects competing for routes in the three receiver
sets. So they're going to be
rotational for for you know to some respect.
I've taken more Dubs and Wicks. I don't think I've taken Watson
either because it's still a pretty decent opportunity cost.
I've taken Dubs and Wicks. The other note I'll add is I
think the market I'm pretty into the Packers, but I do think the
market is assuming too much around Jordan Love.
He wasn't perfect all season last year.
He was very good at times and was great in the play offs.
But I I do think that Matt Lafleur kind of simplified
things at time. I think it was a good coaching
job in Green Bay last year. I think he's not talked about
enough, along with like Sean McVeigh and and Kyle Shanahan
and all those guys that are a part of that group of, you know,
Mike McDaniel, that group of younger coaches that do a lot to
help their players be more successful.
But my point being, if the defenses can kind of come up
with some answers, I'm not convinced that Jordan Love's
skill set yet is like ready to evolve to like, you know, beyond
what the scheme has been able to create for him.
To some respects, I'm not not convinced in that.
I'm just not convinced. And I think people are assuming
that Jordan Love's going to take a huge step forward next year.
What do you guys think about that part of it?
Are you at all concerned about love?
I I am 0% concerned on love He. He showed up and won a road
playoff game. His first crack at it like I
just, I, I and I he just seemed like I'm not saying Jordan Love
is the next great quarterback like the next Rogers or far.
But I think he probably will settle in as like a not
stylistically but results wise. A Kirk Cousins style quarterback
where you can win a lot of regular season games maybe win
some fun playoff games but not necessarily the guy to take you
to the top of the mountain. But I I have 0 concerns about
his ability to feed guys for fantasy, the team wanting to
move on from him. Like I think for for example, I
think he's above the Purdy zone. Like where like if Purdy is kind
of middling this year, maybe gets injured, plays through it,
whatever. And the 49ers are not on the
hook for the extension. Maybe they decide not to give it
to him. I I think he's above that.
The thing I wanted to bring up. I I don't know if this is.
I don't know if this has gone around our space, but Dante and
Wicks has drawn comparisons to Devante Adams from multiple of
the Packers staffers. Matt Lafleur said it.
The wide receiver coach said it. They said, like, you know, I
mean exactly what you that you know, he looks like Devante
Adams. He's got the same work ethic.
He's got the same high football IQ, which is like not to say
that it's right. And then I think that Dante and
Wicks is going to be you know the next like superstar in
fantasy football. But I am kind of saying that in
the sense that you could get him at wide receiver 66 and if you
had to price these things out, who leads the Packers and
targets? I mean Wix should definitely be
high. Like I think Wix has like got a
decent chance to out target Watson this upcoming season for
example. Yeah, These numbers you have.
Yeah, go ahead. I was just gonna ask these these
numbers include the playoff games, right?
Because opposite the yeah include the playoff games
brought his number up a lot and the regular season.
His yards prior run was like 1.3.
Wix was much much better than him in the regular season.
But I. Was like giving credit for the
guys for the huge playoff games, which which done that.
So yeah, that's why these numbers might look a little
different. But yeah, I don't know, I I
don't like. I think this is one of these
things where like we we talk about it like sometimes we in
fantasy we talk about like there's this this like
predetermined set of outcomes that's gonna happen.
I think in reality this is like a wide receiver competition
between these guys and how they play during the season is gonna
determine how this shakes out. And like, good good luck trying
to predict that 'cause I think each of these guys have a case,
even dubs. He doesn't flash in some of the
peripherals like these guys do, but he is the one guy that kind
of they trust in the X wide receiver role on this team reads
more of a slot guy. Even Watson, his size and speed,
he's not really like a true X wide receiver.
He was used a lot in sort of motions and screens and more
gadgety stuff. So yeah, and I don't know, this
is one of these things where like I'm kind of throwing up my
hands at the town evaluation. I'm probably just going to be
skewed towards the guys who are cheaper.
But I think, yeah, I agree with that.
I I think well two things. One on on the town evaluation.
I think you part of why I was saying that about Dobbs is he
needed the playoff games to get to 1.61 point 6 is still
meaningfully lower than 1.9. They ran different amounts of
route volume. It is a different conversation.
But Dobbs had a 1.36 yards per out run his rookie year and then
a 1.32 in the regular season the second year.
He really is but thinking you have to put a lot on to what he
did in the playoffs in the second season.
Otherwise you could say that he's been pretty unproductive
through two years. Meanwhile, Dante and Wicks was a
actually a two point O yards per out run in the regular season.
He didn't do as much in the playoff game, so he falls to 1.9
on this chart, but was really efficient in the one year that
we saw him. I think there's a little bit of
a like an argument that that we've seen enough Dobbs to be a
little bit concerned about his actual upside.
Particularly I'm not trying to take out the playoff game, but
particularly when you look at that rate, that rookie season
not being nearly as good as Wicks rookie season.
But the second thing I would say is, to your point, I think there
is going to be some rotation. I think there's going to be some
uncertainty. I do think Dobbs is still going
to play and if you guys like Love, I think I mean these are
great prices because I think when the guys do play there's
going to be spike weeks and this is a place in the draft
especially where Wicks is going where it's hard to get receivers
that I feel have 20 point like spike week potential and but for
Dobbs too that's why I've taken both of them.
It's like if I need a wide receiver 5 or a wide receiver
6IN a draft where I you know maybe I'm not super super heavy
at wide receiver early. These are guys at a passing game
that was really efficient last year that stays efficient.
I don't I don't feel like Melton's going to be super
involved or the additional guys who are going to be super
involved. The tight ends weren't
necessarily great on a per out basis.
I do kind of think it's these first four guys that are gonna
have most of the production for Jordan Love.
It's gonna be madding to figure out who the guy is.
But on the cheaper end, the they're gonna profile as you
know they're gonna they're gonna be worth those picks basically,
right? They're gonna profile as having
enough spike weeks. They're not gonna be consistent,
but enough spike weeks to be worth that.
So I like to Davis's point about having as much Wicks as he has.
I think that's really sharp at this stage.
My only so on the rotational thing, my only slight pushback
on like this, you know, Mountain.
I think it's going to be these top four guys.
It's like, here's the frustrating thing with the
Packers last year is when Christian Watson was out with
injury or when one of these guys without was out with injury.
You didn't always see the huge spike in routes for Reid or
Dobbs or the other guys. They would bring in Malik Heath
for 30 percent routes, a game that bring in Samara to Ray for
30% routes a game. So I do think there is like some
like philosophical thing with Lafleur here a little bit.
The little bit is that Corrine hated was committed to the bit.
So last year they went into the season with.
I remember this was true even going into the training camp
when they had 11 receivers on the roster.
Every single receiver on the roster was from the 2022 or 2023
draft class, a first year or second year player that can.
That can explain some of that, right?
Like they didn't necessarily want to lean on these guys more
than they had to. I think that's part of why you
can point at Dobbs being the one you know in the playoff that got
the heavy route rate. It's like they needed
consistency that they maybe didn't think they had from the
rookies. Watson wasn't fully healthy, but
like, he was this elder statesman in this passing game,
Romeo Dobbs by that point. I think that doesn't necessarily
mean it'll be like that going forward.
Maybe it will to an extent in 2024.
I would actually predict in 2025 and beyond they'll have their
guys. They're they're trying to figure
out who those guys are. That's kind of been their team
building. I agree.
I think they just like they they kind of hit on like, again, like
Bow Mountain. It's like a little bit of like a
a bit to put his yards per hour on targets per hour on here
'cause. It was such a low round volume.
They hit on a bunch of guys, they hit on two tight ends.
They're the youngest team in the NFL.
All these dudes we just talked about including their
quarterback are 24 and under. Like they can they can kind of
just figure it out. I'm making a talent based bet on
Wix. I think Wix is pretty good.
Is is really what I'm saying? The chat loves our our our
pacing. Right now, yeah.
We've gotten through what, 6 players?
Cat will be back from paternity leave by the time this stream
ends. This I don't know.
We we got one player left and we're an hour and 10 in.
This might be a record for shortest ADP chasing show.
So we'll hit on Amari Cooper here.
Then I got to get out of here. He's down three spots.
I don't have a ton to say here. Besides, just like, I think this
is just, this is boredom too. We talked about like boredom
driving Marvin Harrison and Leak neighbors up like man Amari
Cooper. Just he gets 15 PPR points like
every single season of his career.
Mixes in a couple big spike weeks every season.
He's boring, but I feel like he's just he's consistently just
a win at ADPI. Don't know, maybe, maybe not a
win, but he's someone like, I don't have a hot take on, but I
don't see any reason to like, fade him.
He showed no signs of decline. He had the best season of his
career. He had the best yards per out
run of his career last year. He was incredible, his best
targets per out run of his career, very efficient.
It wasn't just that he didn't have signs at a client, I mean
he was the best weighted targets per out run in my in my database
here as well 'cause he had a high A .14 point, 1A dot.
It was the highest eight out of his career, earning volume at a
higher depth. Also one of his highest
efficiency seasons. He was really strong last year
in all the peripherals. Part of that's because his one
blow up game was so massive, but.
Yeah, maybe. I think the downside that like
all these big games were with Joe Flacco and not Deshaun
Watson. It is a little bit, I think.
I mean, that's my concern. So it is because you look at
their backup quarter situation, it's not great and well, no, I
take it back, it is great because Deshaun Watson, Deshaun
Watson did a press conference yesterday and basically
intimated he has no idea when he will be healthy enough to play
football again. Like he doesn't like, he's like
I'm not, he's not throwing, he's not doing anything.
I mean, we're six months away from the start of the season,
so. Oh my God.
But. Is he good enough for this year?
No, he can't retire. He can't retire because then
he'd give this money up. So he has to just he has to just
be on the IR, right? He's just gonna play like 8
games a season for the next three years and then retire.
He has no interest in playing football anymore.
I. Mean I think he's done.
He doesn't like being in the he's ever said.
Checked out. Turned against him.
Yeah, I mean it's it's crazy. I'm not, this is not like a pat
in the back, but I think a lot of people were assuming he would
come back from his whole thing and be totally fine.
And I remember at the time comparing it to Tiger Woods, I
was like, this is not something we just compared to other
football players. It's it's such a different thing
to go from everybody loves me to now everybody hates you.
Remember when Tiger Woods came back and everyone on the was
booing him after every shot as opposed to like yelling in his
favor after every shot? And that quickly went back to
people being on Tiger's side. But for a stretch, the whole
like, course when he was out golfing was against him.
And that's what Deshaun Watson's gotten like nobody.
He used to be everybody's like, you think about like the staff
in the training room and everything.
I'm sure he was everybody's favorite guy.
He walked in, you know, everybody's like saying hi to
him when he's walking through the tunnel and everything.
The fans are absolutely loving him.
And now it's like nobody, probably.
I would assume, although all through the different things
that he does and including getting booed in games and
stuff, that he has a completely different relationship with
playing football. Now.
I'm not trying to make him into a sympathetic figure, but I
wouldn't surprise me if he just doesn't want to play football
anymore, you know? Yeah, here's what I'm doing.
If I'm the Browns, this is never gonna this is very unlikely to
happen because of how NFL owners think.
But if Deshaun sucks again this year, I'm doing the Russell
Wilson thing. I'm I'm cutting him.
I'm eating the 150 million in dead.
People talk about dead cap a lot.
But what it really is is is sunk cost fallacy.
Like Deshaun Watson, he might have all that dead cap.
He's not getting better if he sucks again.
If he sucks again, take the big dead cap hit, have a complete
rebuilding year, and then the. Problem is, they all get fired.
They all get fired. Everyone gets fired.
That's the problem is, but I I don't know like if.
I'm that's. Probably the right decision, but
they won't, I think. Stefanski is a really good
coach. He got them to the playoffs
with, you know, Joe Flacco and the corpse of Deshaun Watson so
well, if I found them, this is this is not what is gonna
happen. But that's what I'm doing.
I'm keeping Stefanski, cutting Watson, getting the dead cap,
start this thing over. That's what I'd do.
Off the top of your head, what do you think the Browns record
was in games Watson started last year?
They were, like, weirdly good. They were five and one, so they
you, you. You're not cutting, you're not
cutting your five, you're not cutting A10.
Win quarterback. It's just not gonna happen.
But The thing is, if if I'm saying like if the defense
regresses, like the defense was playing so, so well for those
games, that's the. Thing.
We all know that, yeah. It could get real ugly if the
defense regresses. That was like a five and one
where every week it was like, well, they're winning in spite
of their quarterback. Yeah, I mean he he played, he
played like, he played like absolute ass.
I mean his. His.
Yeah, they beat the Ravens, right?
That game where he got hurt, I think, yeah.
And then against the Colts, he went one for one for five with
an interception and they won 3938.
I don't remember this game, but he didn't.
That's the one. He got hurt, I think.
OK, PJ Walker came in and led him to a one point victory over
the Colts and Heisman. Affair.
Wow, yeah. So that's why I don't take Amari
Cooper is because I'm not stacking him and I want a
stacking. I I just want to leave stacking
partners open. And so if I take Jaden Reed
right there, if I take Terry Mclaurin right there, I've got a
stacking partner. If I take Amari Cooper, I don't
have a I'm just not taking Deshaun Watson.
This is crazy. I got a stat for you guys.
If you left that Baltimore game two, then he won five games.
He left two of them and the other three the opponent scored
three points or less. It's really.
Ridiculous. Yeah man.
I just. So I went to the Rams game in
person, the Rams Browns game. This was the first Joe Flacco
game in person. And I went with my girlfriend
and her parents and I was trying to explain to them Joe Flacco
was like, he hasn't really been in the league for three years.
Like, he just came off this couch for this game.
Like, they're like, is he going to be good?
I'm like, no, he's going to be terrible.
Just instantly he's just Hawking the ball down field, just like
making the offense look so good. I think he threw for like 300
yards in that game. They lost.
But to me that was just such a big thing of, like, you take
Deshaun Watson out and put any confident quarterback in and
this offense is, like, immediately fun.
It just showed to me Like even though the record was good with
Watson, he was dragging them down big, big.
The Watson thing or the Flacco thing is so interesting because
it just showed that. To be as quarterback successful
in the NFL right now, all you need to do is not take sacks and
throw the ball deep. And everyone is too coward to
throw the ball deep. No team will do it and Flacco's
like, I've been doing this since I was 10 years old, bro.
I'm 47. I'm just going to throw the ball
high and I go make a play. Yeah, the Flacco thing last year
was just ridiculous. But anyways, that'll that's all
I have for ADP chasing today. The final pre draft ADP chasing.
It'll be super interesting in about 10 days now or is it?
I guess it's yeah eight days before the NFL draft.
We'll get a ton of new information on these guys
landing spots and everything. So yeah, anything you guys want
to plug over the next week besides the the ship chasing
draft stream which will be starting on Thursday I think
around the draft time? You got to.
Do a show with with BIME 4. No, just the the draft streams,
the big one. Jeez.
One thing in the back of my mind was that earlier we moved on
from the Kincaid thing in the chat was asking me about my
Andrews thing. I just wanted to add a little
note that I wasn't trying to say that I would take Kincaid way
ahead of Andrews. I was more saying that the fact
that their 80 PS are close is kind of like partially Andrews
maybe profile being a little bit weaker as well.
So I just wanted to throw that note because a couple people
seemed a little confused by the way I framed that.
Got you. Cool guys.
Well, we'll be back ADP chasing sometime post draft.
And besides that everybody enjoy your Wednesday.
Peace out. They left us all live and Pete
was the one running it and I can't.
I don't think I could end the live show.
We got to get Pete in here.