1 00:00:01,640 --> 00:00:04,760 All right drafts might be wrapping up the big board, the 2 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,320 little boards closing. The NFL draft might be just over 3 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:12,040 a week away, but that seems like the perfect time to get ADP 4 00:00:12,040 --> 00:00:14,680 chasing rolling again on the ship chasing channel. 5 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:16,880 Paternity. Pat is still out, but 6 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:20,880 nevertheless we got Sam Davis, Gretch and myself here to do a 7 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,560 final pre NFL draft version of ADP chasing. 8 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,120 Talking through all of the risers fallers. 9 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,000 Certainly some interesting player movements to discuss. 10 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:30,880 ADP chasing is back. Let's do it. 11 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:38,440 Pat Fryer helmo this. Is why This is why I'm hot. 12 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:40,920 Anita hand job. Fix your sight. 13 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:46,960 Jamar. Alpha play chase, you can't 14 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,440 handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at 15 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:50,160 this point. You're right. 16 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:05,160 Excited to be back on the ADP chasing on ship chasing 17 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:07,200 everybody. We got, you know, we got a lot 18 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,120 of feedback. The past couple shows with just 19 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:12,440 me, Pat and Davis that we didn't have enough voices in the room. 20 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:17,160 So I'm excited to have both Gretch and Pete joining us 21 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:18,640 today. Fellas, how are we doing? 22 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,720 Doing good. The only way to fill Pat's shoes 23 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,080 is with four, four feet. Two sets of feet. 24 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,080 So we're gonna do our our best today. 25 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,200 Why is the Garrett Wilson clip not in the ship chasing intro? 26 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,880 Why is the Garrett Wilson Lynn Swan clip not a part of the 27 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:37,240 intro? I mean, I feel like that. 28 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,600 I feel like that's a legendary ship chasing moment to be 29 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,320 honest. I think it happened after the 30 00:01:41,320 --> 00:01:44,480 intro was already made. Yeah it did. 31 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:46,800 And I've noticed this. I refreshed my like best ball 32 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,040 breakfast info in intros once a year cause the references 33 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:52,040 change. But people also start to treat 34 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,960 these as like comfort food where and then they'll get them set. 35 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,320 So you do kind of have to add to it as opposed to remove 36 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,840 something, but yes we can. We'll talk with the with the 37 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:03,400 team and see if that needs to get added. 38 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:07,640 That was a a classic moment for sure. 39 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:12,760 We got that this year's Garrett Wilson moment can could happen. 40 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:14,240 You know next week that's coming. 41 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:16,080 That's coming up the The Draft show. 42 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,360 Yeah, I think we're going to get a, we're going to get a Jayden 43 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,360 Daniels's Fran Tarkenton and Warren Moon comp. 44 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:28,360 And we could seriously get a Cadarius Tony moment with all of 45 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:30,760 these random wide receivers that could go at the end of round one 46 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:33,640 too. Jake Mcculkey. 47 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:41,080 All right, Sam, this is, this is, this is your guys show you, 48 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,160 you take the, the steering wheel. 49 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,240 What's the agenda for today? Yeah. 50 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:49,840 So we're going to go over Rogers and Fallers over the past two 51 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,360 weeks. So Pete, if you wouldn't mind 52 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,400 adding the charts up. Yeah, so here this has been sort 53 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,640 of a a bit of a dead period I'd say in ADP movement, but still 54 00:02:59,640 --> 00:03:04,520 some after effects I guess of free agency and trades showing 55 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:06,720 up here. So there's a bunch of guys on 56 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,880 here, bills and Texans, guys that we've talked a lot through. 57 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,720 I wanted to spend a bit more time on some of the names. 58 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:16,040 We didn't talk as much about South starting today, talking 59 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,640 about Derrick Henry, he's up six spots over the past two weeks, 60 00:03:19,640 --> 00:03:23,800 you know, more like 30 spots over the last month where he was 61 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:27,000 pre free agency. He shows up here as the second 62 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,840 biggest riser. Curious, I guess starting 63 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:34,160 starting with you, Gretch, How have you been approaching Henry? 64 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,760 I know you drove across the border to do some slow drafts. 65 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:40,360 How are you thinking about his new price in Bestball right now? 66 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,960 I haven't taken him yet. I think it's less about him 67 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,160 specifically and more about how I've wanted to approach 68 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:48,840 structurally. And so I haven't been taking a 69 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:53,040 lot of running backs in that range, but certainly at his age 70 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,960 it's a it's a high opportunity cost already and then you get 71 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:01,320 into the the question of the area that he's going in, there's 72 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,600 a lot of receivers that I want to be taking and you can even 73 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:05,880 start to talk about the tight ends. 74 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:09,640 And so it is, it's a it's one I just haven't actually allowed 75 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:14,520 myself to think too hard about. I do think after talking with 76 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:18,200 Sean on Bananas yesterday, I don't know if those pod the Pod 77 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:19,959 is out yet that that we discussed it. 78 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:22,760 I do think the Ravens are a pretty decent candidate to be 79 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:26,240 adding in the draft, so it'll be interesting to see, you know, 80 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,000 this big rise. I think they're a lock to take. 81 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,880 Yeah, they're more or less a lock and it's not a great 82 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,160 running back class. But once they add I I'm curious 83 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,080 if this rise is gonna be undone a little bit. 84 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:39,640 And then Keaton Mitchell. I was researching him a little 85 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:44,920 bit, just for some late round stuff and and found that just 86 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:48,680 refreshing myself on his injury and stuff that it was a a single 87 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,120 ligament tear when he tore his ACL. 88 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,400 And also that like John Harbaugh had some quotes right away that 89 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,240 it was a clean tear. When they went in, they did the 90 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:57,320 surgery. They felt really good about it. 91 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:58,960 That his. I mean he's still very young. 92 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,720 It seems like the lowest impact of an ACL tear that you could 93 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:04,720 have, basically. So if they had a rookie and they 94 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,360 have Keaton Mitchell and Darren Derrick Henrik you know 30 plus 95 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:10,320 years old and Greg Roman's not there anymore. 96 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:12,680 I mean, there's there's all the effects of Lamar Jackson and 97 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,040 everything but on rushing efficiency and all that. 98 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:19,000 But I I do think there's some concern about the overall size 99 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,320 of of his workload and how hard they're going to really push 100 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:23,720 him. This price for me gets gets 101 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,280 tricky with the opportunity cost at the other positions. 102 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:31,720 I'm curious why you guys think they're likely to add a back. 103 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,400 I mean, my thought was with Keaton Mitchell, assuming that 104 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:36,280 ACL Terry is clean and he can be back. 105 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:38,680 He's still on the roster. Justice Hill is still on the 106 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:41,280 roster. He got decent playing time last 107 00:05:41,280 --> 00:05:42,200 year. I don't know. 108 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,480 To me it seems less likely they would go running back with all 109 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,520 the needs they have, but I don't know I guess. 110 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:49,400 I guess. It's a team. 111 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,360 It's a team that cannot. It's a team that cannot function 112 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:56,080 without multiple available running backs. 113 00:05:56,240 --> 00:06:01,200 Justice Hill is 27. He's year second contract 114 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:03,400 running back. They had never really wanted to 115 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:05,080 play Justice Hill. The only reason he was playing 116 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:07,800 last year was like solely through attrition. 117 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:12,400 And it's just it's just I mean you can just tell it's the team 118 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:16,600 that values running backs like they they always spend a pick on 119 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,480 a running back. Mitchell I I I mean I I took him 120 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,960 a lot early in that the big board and I like didn't really 121 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:25,960 know any of the rookie running backs and was just kind of 122 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:29,120 vibing. But I I would expect him to be 123 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:31,880 either not available to start the year or not a big part of 124 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:33,800 it. And also, I mean, I think they 125 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:36,480 have to be realistic about the fact that Derrick Henry is 30 126 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,520 and there is just a chance that he doesn't make it through the 127 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:41,200 entirety of the season is my thing. 128 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,240 Yeah, the only thing I'd I would, I would just add to that 129 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:48,120 is they have 9 picks and they have their first, second and 130 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:49,960 third rounders. Their extra picks are on day 131 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,600 three, they have six day three picks and most of those classes 132 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:54,200 have to be kind of day three picks. 133 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:56,560 I I'd be surprised if they didn't use one of those day 134 00:06:56,560 --> 00:07:00,840 three picks on the back. One thing from the that you know 135 00:07:00,840 --> 00:07:03,840 the titular ADP chasing reference that's interesting 136 00:07:03,840 --> 00:07:07,480 here is like if you're if you're drafting off of any ranks like 137 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:11,120 ETR, Rotaviz and Leg Up are all behind this ADP. 138 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,160 So like you will not get him part of to what Gretch was 139 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:15,800 saying, like the structural stuff, there are some really 140 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:19,480 nice wide receiver picks there. But I had this moment yesterday 141 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,960 where I did my usual thing of clicking a wide receiver there 142 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:25,200 and I immediately was kind of upset because Henry had slipped 143 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,680 a few picks past ADP. And I said to myself, we all 144 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,160 know where this is. Derrick Henry is headed for the 145 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:34,160 early third round, late second round during BBM drafting season 146 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,400 when everyone pours it. And I'm probably not going to 147 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,480 like his ADP as much there as I am right now. 148 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,920 And so I kind of had the thought like, I do maybe want to pack 149 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:46,040 some of my final bags of Henry at this price because I do think 150 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:47,960 he's only going to get more expensive. 151 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,520 So that's my only thing about that. 152 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:52,600 If like if you don't like the price now, if you don't want to 153 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,240 have 0%, you might want to grab a few shares. 154 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,280 Yeah, I think that's right. And Pat made that point I think 155 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:00,680 on our last show where I was like, I think he settles like 156 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,160 3-4 turn, he's already jumped past that and I think you're 157 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,600 right that he's probably continuing to jump up. 158 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,080 I I did want to have a little bit of discussion on Derrick 159 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:15,440 Henry's decline. So I looked into his performance 160 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,960 the past five years. So what this chart shows, which 161 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:22,480 is interesting, this is percentage of weeks getting a 162 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:26,960 spike week over 25 plus points. And you can see that from 2019 163 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,600 to 2021, Derrick Henry was basically the best running back 164 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:33,039 in the league at doing this, really only getting beaten out 165 00:08:33,039 --> 00:08:37,600 by maybe Christian McCaffrey. Then in 2022 saw a decline and 166 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:42,200 then last year he had almost no spike weeks above 25 plus 167 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:44,159 points. But as always, when you do these 168 00:08:44,159 --> 00:08:47,920 sort of arbitrary threshold things, it's worth setting a 169 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,800 lower threshold and seeing what happens if you lower that to 20 170 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:55,560 plus points. He really hasn't shown a big 171 00:08:55,560 --> 00:08:59,960 decline in his fantasy scoring. So you know the past two years, 172 00:08:59,960 --> 00:09:03,280 Last year he was still first in the NFL amongst running backs 173 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,280 and delivering 20 plus points spike weeks. 174 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:09,000 Last year he was 6. So he's still, you know, even in 175 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:14,000 his age 30 season, he hasn't shown massive signs of decline. 176 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:20,480 That's also somewhat backed up by some underlying stats and 177 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:24,600 efficiency here. So his breakaway rate by how PFF 178 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:28,640 measures it, that has not really declined over the past five 179 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:30,320 years. It shows up in his, you know, 180 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,240 top speed when carrying the ball. 181 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:33,600 That hasn't really declined either. 182 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:37,240 His rush yards over expected per attempt has declined from that 183 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,520 2019-2020. But again, PFF Rushcreate hasn't 184 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,480 really declined. So I don't know. 185 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:46,400 I think, I think with Henry like the age concerns are certainly 186 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,200 there. I do think, like, I'm willing to 187 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,680 attribute more of his statistical decline last season 188 00:09:52,680 --> 00:09:56,480 more to the Titans offense than him, like really showing some 189 00:09:56,480 --> 00:10:01,040 massive decline as a player. So yeah, for me it comes down to 190 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:03,280 like the age Cliff. It's coming up at some point. 191 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,960 I don't think he's hit it yet, but he obviously could hit it in 192 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:08,680 a year, so that's when you really have to price. 193 00:10:08,680 --> 00:10:11,240 It that's the thing with all these guys is they don't hit it 194 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,120 till they do, right? And then and then once a once a 195 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:18,080 240 LB running back hits the age Cliff, there's no, there's no 196 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:21,600 climbing back up the Cliff. There's no scalpelling equipment 197 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,080 that is gonna get him back up on on top of the mountain. 198 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:28,680 I I guess I would disagree with Pete a little bit and the chat 199 00:10:28,680 --> 00:10:30,080 seems to really agree with it as well. 200 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:35,000 I I would be surprised if he if he continues to rise from here. 201 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:40,360 I I feel like the ADP trends have valued H over the last 202 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:44,720 couple years that there's a lot of guys that have started a 203 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,320 small slide the year that they start to like. 204 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:51,120 He turned 30 in January. You're showing some of these 205 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,320 numbers with the rush yards over expected that have dropped off. 206 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,880 If you just look at like his yards per carry, which is a 207 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,040 little more more surface level, it does show a pretty 208 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,640 significant draw for over not just the last year, but the last 209 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:06,760 like three years where you know he used to be like a 5 yards per 210 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:12,000 carry guy, 2018-2019, 2020 he's been not even hit 4.5 yards per 211 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:14,120 carry the last three years. Now some of that's offensive 212 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,160 line and all that stuff, but it has impacted his overall 213 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:19,440 production. He hasn't led the league in 214 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,800 rushing yards in a long time, but he has LED in rushing 215 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:23,600 attempts. But he's been less efficient. 216 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:25,320 Doesn't catch a lot of passes, right? 217 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:27,560 So it's all like a touchdowns argument. 218 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:30,920 And I think there's going to be people that are going to say, 219 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,040 OK, well are Baltimore, is Baltimore really going to give 220 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,720 him the league lead in rushing attempts like he had the last 221 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,280 two years in Tennessee? I don't know. 222 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:40,840 I mean I think a 30 year old back going in in round. 223 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:41,480 Two. Probably not. 224 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,400 But he should not be. He'll make up with that with 225 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:46,480 touchdowns, right? If he just if he just ends up 226 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,520 getting 16 Gus Edwards ass touchdowns. 227 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:51,600 That and to me that's what it is like. 228 00:11:51,680 --> 00:11:53,880 I think people who want to select them or who will 229 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,480 inevitably select them there, they don't care about the 230 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,400 efficiency stuff they're saying. Gus Edwards scored 13 touchdowns 231 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:01,760 in this offense as a dusty 29 year old running back. 232 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:03,040 Derrick Henry's better than that. 233 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,120 Like the touchdown expectation. I think that's what you're 234 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:08,080 paying for. And we could talk about how that 235 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,280 might be a a big mistake to pay that kind of prices for a 236 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:13,720 volatile, you know, return on scoring. 237 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:16,800 But I think that's going to be the psychology of late second, 238 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:21,720 early 3rd Henry drafters. I just am not really that 239 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:23,840 interested. I mean, I I would be pretty 240 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:28,000 interested if he was cheaper, but I just like, can I take 241 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:29,920 Derek? I I literally, as we were doing 242 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:31,840 this exercise, I was like, when's the last time I even 243 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:37,800 noticed Derek Henry's name? I know I I that's what I let off 244 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:38,760 with. I don't even really think about 245 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:41,720 it but I think to to Sam's point and and that's that's a great 246 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:44,760 point Pete. I do I do think that's a sharp 247 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,800 take the this this chart exactly this is a touchdown chart like 248 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:52,760 he he isn't adding the yardage anymore to get to the 25 point 249 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:54,120 spike. He never really has much 250 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,600 receiving right. He's not adding enough yardage 251 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,040 with the T DS, but he's still getting those 20 point games 252 00:12:59,920 --> 00:13:02,480 with, you know, a multiple TD game with whatever it is, 70 253 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:06,600 rushing yards or if he gets to 120 and and one TV or something 254 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:10,160 and a little bit of receiving. But he used to have 200 yard 255 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,000 rushing games where he could get to 25 point, you know, weeks 256 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:15,560 without even stacking up too many touchdowns. 257 00:13:15,560 --> 00:13:17,960 I mean this to me is like, yeah, I mean he's so it's a good 258 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:20,440 point. By beat that I mean you will 259 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:22,720 still get some 20 point games off touchdowns alone. 260 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,200 I think the thing I'm wondering, Gretch is just like, is the last 261 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:29,720 two years really, Is there Henry being worse as a player or is it 262 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,560 just that Titans offense? I mean, last year when they 263 00:13:32,560 --> 00:13:35,560 switched from Tannehill to Levis, like the offense really 264 00:13:35,560 --> 00:13:40,360 was not firing on all cylinders. I I guess I questioned like, has 265 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:44,160 he really lost that yardage ability if Baltimore gives him 266 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,000 the touches? I mean, he should be extremely 267 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,280 efficient, just like we saw Gus Edwards be for, you know, five 268 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:52,000 straight years. I don't think, we think Gus 269 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,960 Edwards is that talented of running back, but he could be 270 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,560 extremely efficient in that offense. 271 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,920 Yeah, it takes a bit of a leap to be like, OK, Henry's not 272 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,880 going to hit the H Cliff and they're going to give him like 273 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:08,120 the full workload. But I guess I do see the upside 274 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,600 if that happens. And I think, yeah, for me, I 275 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:13,920 don't think he's going to be like a target player for me or 276 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,920 someone I'll be overweight on. But in sort of like anchor 277 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:20,200 running back builds where I go wide receiver, wide receiver get 278 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,520 Henry as my anchor running back like I can see ways in that. 279 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:26,720 Working out pretty well. I don't think he's hit the 280 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:28,200 Cliff, but I think Davis is right. 281 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:29,920 That like that can come at any time. 282 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:31,800 But Derrick Henry's a unique talent. 283 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:35,680 I mean, the guys that do hold on for longer than we expect are 284 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,560 usually guys that are outliers, right? 285 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,720 Yeah. Latavius Murray, you know, just 286 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,720 kind of like really unique sort of guys who just, I mean. 287 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:46,960 The like Latavius Murray didn't didn't lead the league in 288 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,520 rushing into his age 30 seasons. No, he just sent. 289 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,200 He just sent everyone's favorite James Cook to the bench on goal 290 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,960 line possessions as the literal oldest running back in in the 291 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,120 NFL. Here's the thing, any sort of 292 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,360 Derrick Henry analysis is so reductive because it literally 293 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:04,440 doesn't matter. It just comes down to does 294 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:09,120 Derrick Henry score a bunch of touchdowns or does he not? 295 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:12,360 And no one. He's 30 years old. 296 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:14,200 We're not changing our minds about Derek Henry. 297 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:16,000 Guess what? I'm not gonna wake up one day. 298 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:17,760 I mean, I took Derek Henry last year. 299 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:19,720 Yeah, you were a Derek Henry bowl last year. 300 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:21,080 What do you wake up and change your minds? 301 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:22,880 You woke up two days ago. Because he played. 302 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,640 He played the Houston Texans twice in the class. 303 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:29,680 Yeah, and then it turns out, it turns out that the Texans were 304 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:33,200 actually a good run defense. But like Henry is going to get 305 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:37,640 between 245 and 300 carries depending on how sensitive they 306 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:41,000 are to like his age. Just keep Mitchell like kind of 307 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:46,840 have a Taje Spears style role in this offense and if he scores 17 308 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,080 touchdowns the Faders will probably be. 309 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:54,400 You know the other thing for underdog stuff is what is the 310 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:56,200 Week 17 game for Baltimore gonna be? 311 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:57,960 Is it an attractive one? Is it a shitty one? 312 00:15:58,160 --> 00:15:59,320 Like if is it a is. It a Are they? 313 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,080 Playing in a Dome, What's the weather? 314 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,720 Like. Your two biggest Week 17 takes 315 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:07,320 last year were don't play Browns Jets 'cause it's an El Nino 316 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,360 monsoon and also draft Erik Henry because. 317 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:12,320 Of the oh just don't play. It was don't play it was don't. 318 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,320 It was no outdoor games. I just I wanted as much Colts 319 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,280 Raiders as my little stomach could handle. 320 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:24,920 But if it's if it's if it's Raven, Steelers, outdoors, what 321 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:26,480 does that do? Like seriously, what is that? 322 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:31,000 Does that are are UD drafters logged in enough to be like off 323 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,040 of him as a result of that? I I'm curious. 324 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:34,240 I'm old enough. To be on. 325 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:37,440 It was D hember it was that's he got better in cold weather. 326 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,800 A defense Better when. It's better when it's cold. 327 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:41,840 Yeah, you'd be on him. You'd be like, the Ravens are 328 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,040 going to have to run the ball. Lamar Jackson can't throw in the 329 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:45,440 wind, is what they'll tell themselves. 330 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:47,280 OK. All right, I just looked this 331 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:48,040 up. Davis. 332 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,280 Adrian Peterson's the cop. Age 30 season led the NFL in 333 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,280 rushing attempts, yards and T DS. 334 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,400 That's the type, type of player that can still be that good at 335 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:57,800 age 30 and I mean you could argue. 336 00:16:57,800 --> 00:16:59,320 Maybe I'm maybe I'm buying back in. 337 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,640 Maybe I just maybe I just maybe I just bought back in if. 338 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,560 I I'm not. Going to wake up, You mean in 25 339 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:06,880 seconds? I'm not going to change my. 340 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:11,640 Mind I just like the The deal for me is that there are all got 341 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,000 there are all all the wide receivers who go around him. 342 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:17,640 I can squint and be like, that's the guy you need, like Jalen 343 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,839 Waddle goes after him and I'm like such a waddle apologist 344 00:17:20,839 --> 00:17:23,160 that I'm like, I got to just do it. 345 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,119 Yeah. That's a thing structurally like 346 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,440 you you receivers dry up in like round seven this year, like you 347 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,000 want you look back and you're like, I didn't want to take a 348 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:35,760 running back there. You want to be. 349 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:37,880 You want to be. You want to be the chucklehead 350 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,480 taking Christian Watson in the seventh round because you really 351 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,640 needed another wide receiver. Like, no you don't. 352 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,400 I'd rather take some shares of Bijon in round one and then you 353 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:49,960 know take a a receiver in round three and but not load up on too 354 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:51,840 much early running back and that kind of thing. 355 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,000 Yeah, I think, I think that's the question. 356 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:58,520 And yeah, it's it'll be an interesting one with Henry to 357 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,600 see where his price moves. Let's move on to CJ Stroud. 358 00:18:02,120 --> 00:18:05,560 We talked a lot about the Texans the past couple weeks. 359 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,520 We didn't actually talk much about their quarterback and 360 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:12,920 where his price should go. He's up nearly 10 spots to 52 361 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:14,520 overall. I think he's now going as like 362 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,480 the QB 4, five off the board, pretty close to your. 363 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:19,920 Dumbassery. Mahomes. 364 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,560 Well it's also it's not just Dumbassery, it's also Siegel's 365 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,320 fault who's been saying he should go ahead of Mahomes and 366 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,360 Lamar and like not even in that tier. 367 00:18:28,360 --> 00:18:31,920 And he's he's saying that Stroud's like QB two and gonna 368 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:34,640 throw for 5050. So I I kind of blame. 369 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:35,160 Him. Sean. 370 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:36,240 Sean. I'm sorry. 371 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:37,320 I can't. I can't. 372 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:41,480 I cannot on board this. But I mean that what you need 373 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:45,080 with Stroud, right, is you need one of those like retro Tom 374 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,000 Brady 2007. Peyton. 375 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:52,480 Manning two, 2014 Aaron. Rodgers, 2000. 11 Yeah, you need 376 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,800 one of these insane pocket passer seasons that I guess we 377 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:59,960 saw it a bit with Brady on the box, but they're more so things 378 00:18:59,960 --> 00:19:03,320 that have happened like a decade ago with the prime Aaron 379 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,480 Rodgers, Peyton Manning, breeze seasons like. 380 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,400 You call it 1050. Season like that, yeah. 381 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:12,360 But that's what Mahomes did in his second season and I think 382 00:19:12,360 --> 00:19:14,480 that's sort of the the template as well. 383 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,080 The one thing I'll say is like you look at like Mahomes now, 384 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:20,400 he's not going to have a 5050 season because the Chiefs know 385 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:22,160 they have to play four playoff games every year. 386 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,880 Like they they are intentionally not pushing in the regular 387 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,960 season at this phase of their evolution. 388 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,080 The Texans are at this point where they're like, we're going 389 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:33,520 to go get Stefan Diggs right now. 390 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:37,320 We're going to go do all this stuff and see like, his pastimes 391 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,440 are going to rise in Year 2. They're going to see the 392 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,520 limitations. The Bills did this in in like 393 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,520 year two, year three of Josh Allen, right? 394 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,520 Like, this is the point in like, the team's evolution with a 395 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:50,080 young quarterback who's a clear hit where they do push, right? 396 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,480 And I mean, if it's going to happen for CJ Stroud in his 397 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:55,560 career, I would bet that it would happen in the first like 398 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:59,160 three to five seasons as opposed to, you know, six or eight years 399 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:02,080 down the road in at least in the modern NFL for for Manning and 400 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,000 Brady and those guys that happened later in their career. 401 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:05,880 But. Some of that was because of 402 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,280 passing trends not changing until later in those guys 403 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,200 career. But I think like if you're gonna 404 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,600 bet on it, you're too. CJ Stroud's a pretty good time 405 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:14,520 to bet on that type of season. I don't. 406 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:18,480 Find this crazy like I don't find this ADP crazy in like when 407 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,400 you frame it to where like we had the course correction, right 408 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,640 where like all those elite quarterbacks used to go way too 409 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,480 high then it pushed back. Then the market. 410 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:27,120 Understood. You push up the guys with the 411 00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:29,280 rushing ceiling. So we get the Josh Allen's the 412 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,720 Jalen Hurts is going. And then we saw the high upside 413 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:36,120 packet pocket passers settle in that Round 5 range like everyone 414 00:20:36,120 --> 00:20:39,480 did the Joe Burrow premium double with Chase and Higgins 415 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:40,680 and they take him in the fifth round. 416 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,400 Like we always take shots on that guy. 417 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,040 We did it with Herbert a couple years ago before things kind of 418 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,280 went S there of like, who is this guy that has the weapons 419 00:20:49,360 --> 00:20:52,240 and the talent to have that prolific season like. 420 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:56,200 So to me Stroud being in this range, like historically over 421 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,080 the past couple years, that doesn't strike me as weird. 422 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,600 It's like the best wide receiver crew we've ever seen. 423 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:02,760 So I don't know. It seems like a fair price to me 424 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,440 relative to how the market has traditionally priced these 425 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,720 passers. Yeah, that's what I'm having a 426 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,480 hard time figuring out. Like I I wanted to have some hot 427 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,600 take that's like CJ Stroud has the best three wide receiver set 428 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,520 since I don't know, like historic, an historically good 429 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:22,040 three wide receiver set. But at the same time, like Tank 430 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:25,320 Dell was like a late Round 3 prospect that nobody thought 431 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,640 anything of. Nico Collins was like a nobody 432 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,760 until last year. Like, are these three wide 433 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:34,200 receivers really amazing, or is that just like Stroud being 434 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,360 amazing so? That's why you wouldn't. 435 00:21:36,360 --> 00:21:37,840 Take Stroud because yeah, that's. 436 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,640 Why you would take Stroud. Noah Brown had a career high. 437 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:41,160 I don't. Wanna. 438 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,360 Yeah, I just don't wanna double count that, you know what I 439 00:21:44,360 --> 00:21:45,440 mean? Be like strouds. 440 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,480 Awesome. And his receivers are amazing. 441 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,280 It's like you get into a little risk of like double counting 442 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,080 there, right? I think where I would get queasy 443 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:56,920 is if people were taking him ahead of Lamar in Josh Allen, in 444 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,600 Hertz and those guys that we know just have that nuclear 445 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,440 Komani. Why can't I talk Konami coat 446 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,560 ceiling? Whereas they're still respecting 447 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,320 that gap of saying, like, Stroud isn't gonna run a ton, he's 448 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:08,680 gonna have to get it done with his arm. 449 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:12,600 So yeah, I don't know. Yeah, the I'm OK with it if I 450 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:14,080 have, I mean in terms of the price. 451 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:15,720 If I have one of these wide receivers, I'm. 452 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,040 I'm gonna be so excited about the Texan stack. 453 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,560 It's gonna be hard for me to avoid Stroud in the strange, I 454 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,920 think. The note Sam that that you just 455 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,120 made, Nico Collins had a a 3.1 yards per out run last year, 456 00:22:26,120 --> 00:22:29,400 Hadn't hit 1.7 in either of his first two seasons so almost 457 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:33,760 doubled his career high. Noah Brown had never hit 1.25 458 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,560 yards per out run 'cause he's Noah Brown and he had a 1.94 he 459 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,040 on on almost 300 routes he had like a 2.0 yards per. 460 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:42,160 I mean, he's right below 2 point. 461 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,200 He had like, back-to-back 150 yard games, right? 462 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,880 Yeah, yeah. I mean so I think it's pretty 463 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,720 fair to say it was Stroud and then you add digs to the mix and 464 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:54,280 you're like, I mean he's already elevating these other dudes. 465 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,320 He's so vertical with his passing he pushes down field and 466 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:01,320 I mean at least last year defenses couldn't really stop it 467 00:23:01,360 --> 00:23:03,840 as a rookie right out of the gate you know and they've gotten 468 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,720 better they've they've been able to add this offseason in a lot 469 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,040 of ways. My one of my concerns is the 470 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,280 Texans are too good because they added to Neil Hunter. 471 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:16,240 They added a couple other front seven guys, that AD tackle A 472 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,440 linebacker. They already had the Defensive 473 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:19,560 Rookie of the Year on the other end. 474 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,840 So now they have two really good edge rushers, really good front 475 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:23,760 seven. But I think the Texans are like 476 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,400 a legit contender in the AFC. And if they're like too good in 477 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,840 the AFC S, maybe he doesn't have to throw a lot in second halves 478 00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,720 of games and stuff like that. I mean, I don't know. 479 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:34,680 We did this. We did this with Burrough. 480 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,640 We did this with Herbert. CJ Stroud is a really good 481 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,280 quarterback. He's got good wide receivers. 482 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,960 The Burroughs in what? The guys who No, not for 483 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:45,920 fantasy. It didn't. 484 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,160 Not QBQ B6. Joe Burrow did not work for 485 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,040 fantasy. Yeah, where he was going like 486 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,200 two years ago. Is that what you're referring 487 00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:54,960 to? I think he was in. 488 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,680 Like, I think I'm referring to a second season when he. 489 00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,520 No, that certainly. Worked 46134. 490 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,880 That that worked, but the last year his. 491 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,840 Price the following season, I think, yeah. 492 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,840 He was more like an eighth round pick in in the second season. 493 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,360 Is that right? Yeah. 494 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,240 Maybe even later. That was like before we knew Joe 495 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,400 Burrow was like, good. Almost right? 496 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,360 I don't. Know there's just a clear like 497 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:23,760 Dak Prescott goes 30 picks later around a bunch of shit guys you 498 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:27,360 don't really want to take. And what if I made you set the 499 00:24:27,360 --> 00:24:29,680 line right now? Fantasy points, CJ Stroud versus 500 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,560 Dak Prescott. You'd be like, oh, I'll totally 501 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,880 take Stroud and I'll be like, OK, I'll give you plus 120 or 502 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,760 I'll get, I'll I get plus 120 on Dak and you'd be like, I don't, 503 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:43,840 I don't really want to do that. One other ADP wrinkle to all of 504 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,400 this that is gonna be unique to the Stroud stuff. 505 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,760 You know, relative to the Borough premium double S is you 506 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:53,520 would often see sometimes a borough slide if like whoever 507 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:57,920 had one of Jamar or T was just like, push it and then the other 508 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,840 say one took, you know, Josh Allen or something, then it's 509 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,360 all of a sudden like, Oh, no one wants unstacked Borough. 510 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:07,240 That's gonna happen far, far less likely with Stroud having 511 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,040 three different stacking candidates. 512 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,560 In the other chalk thing that I already see in big board drafts, 513 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,160 it's like every other draft someone takes Higgins and 514 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,280 Collins at the 2-3 turn and then Burrow at the 4-5 turn. 515 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,800 Like, it's so comfy, it's so cozy. 516 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,040 And then even if you let Burrow go past the 4-5 turn, the tank 517 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:25,800 Dell drafter in the 5th saying hi there. 518 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:30,080 Yeah, I'm scooping that up, so I don't see his ADP really ever 519 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:36,320 falling out of the fifth round. Bureau 20/22 was also super good 520 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,680 by the way. I think both 2021 and 2022 he 521 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,960 was a pretty big hit at ADP, probably had plus win win. 522 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,800 The only difference in 2022 is both out or all of Allen Hertz 523 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,680 and Mahomes went off that year. But I mean, yes, that's. 524 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:55,040 The thing that's The thing is you cannot if CJ strout OK, if 525 00:25:55,040 --> 00:26:00,440 Hertz, Allen, Lamar and Mahomes all come close to ceiling 526 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:01,760 seasons. I mean, Hertz and Allen don't 527 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,480 even have to get their ceiling seasons. 528 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,600 They just walk into 22 fantasy points per game. 529 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:11,200 But if Mahomes and Lamar both regressed towards having closer 530 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,480 to their career averages, like remember Lamar just like stopped 531 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,760 scoring touchdowns last year. They were just like, you know 532 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:18,600 what Lamar? You don't need to score any 533 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:20,520 touchdowns for like a four week stretch. 534 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,680 And I mean enough has been said about Mahomes his last season. 535 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,480 Like I I think the I've been what I've been thinking about 536 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,560 with ADP is what I'm going to do right when best ball Mania 5 537 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,040 opens and like where I think the ADP is most markedly like to be 538 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:38,720 wrong and what this is a spot where I see where so we add 539 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:43,640 round one wide receiver X worthy Mitchell whoever to the Chiefs 540 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,560 maybe they take a date maybe they take a day three guy 541 00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,080 whatever. I just my anticipation is that 542 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,400 the Chiefs offense is they're not going to do the 2023 thing 543 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,480 again. I think they realized they flew 544 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,640 too close to the sun throwing pad out there with a bunch of 545 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,280 guys who could not play and you know they let Snead go. 546 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,800 I don't think the the defense is going to be near as good this 547 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,200 upcoming season. I I am anticipating a huge 548 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,480 regression to the career mean for Mahomes where he's like they 549 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,640 scored 21 points a game last year. 550 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,040 They scored a full touchdown less than they did in their 4th 551 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,240 Super Bowl season. I I that is not going to happen 552 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:20,640 again. The. 553 00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:26,200 Last thing I'll say that's about and then and then move on is I 554 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,480 think it what what's really critical here is whether the 555 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:33,440 Texans remain insistent on being a balanced offense like they 556 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:35,560 were last year. They were, they were very close 557 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:37,720 to league average in terms of past attempts per game. 558 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,560 Or if they say, hey we got Stefan Diggs, we're gonna let CJ 559 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,360 Stroud sling it 384041 times per game. 560 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,960 That's what you really need to have these elite pocket passer 561 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,600 ceilings. You need to get that 38 plus 562 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,880 attempts per game. Last year, the Texans weren't. 563 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,280 Well, Sam, what you really need is you need the organizational 564 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,560 buy in that they want him to win MVP, which we have seen happen 565 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,920 with Burrow and we've seen happen with Allen, where they're 566 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:08,240 like we want you to generate enough statistics to win MVP or 567 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,120 to win or to be All Pro or whatever. 568 00:28:10,120 --> 00:28:13,560 And I don't know enough about any of the Texans people to know 569 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,360 if that's something they're interested in doing. 570 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,720 Yeah, you. I think you have to assume in 571 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,000 year 2 they're gonna pass more when they were that successful. 572 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,200 I think it's the default it should go. 573 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,560 Off I think too. But they also paid Joe Mixon 574 00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,800 like a 50 million guaranteed for some reason. 575 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:29,960 So it's like what the Hell's going on in the Houston? 576 00:28:31,360 --> 00:28:37,120 Let's talk Dalton Kincaid, the the Liam Memorial ADP riser, 577 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,840 he's up 8 spots. I know. 578 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,720 I think, Pete, I've heard you talk about elite tight end being 579 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:45,680 a big part of your strategy so far this year. 580 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,280 Does Kincaid fall into that group of guys that you're 581 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:50,560 targeting? He does. 582 00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,960 I I I do think Liam just like legitimately ruined Dalton 583 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:57,040 Kincade for me because I just find myself licking every other 584 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,040 elite tight end other than Dalton Kincade. 585 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,080 He's probably the guy of all of those pits, Kittle, McBride, 586 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:04,800 Andrews, Kelsey, that I have the least of. 587 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,360 But yes, I in general, I'm very much in on all of these prices. 588 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,280 And I think I'm just kind of burned in that. 589 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,800 I wasn't drafting him a ton before this trade or you know, 590 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,480 with Diggs and now he's rocking it up in Price and I'm just 591 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:19,800 like, I'll sit the Kincaid thing out for now. 592 00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,120 What's the point? What are you? 593 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,560 What are you hoping for with Dalton Kincaid? 594 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:27,680 I guess that he scores touchdowns somehow. 595 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:29,560 I guess. You're what do you mean that 596 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,880 he's their number one? He's Josh Allen's #1 receiver. 597 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:34,320 I don't think he. I don't think he will. 598 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,800 Be What do you think's catching passes from Josh Allen, Curtis 599 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:37,800 Samuel? Like what? 600 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,120 What are they doing? I mean, I expect Curtis Samuel 601 00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,840 to have more receiving yards than Dalton Kincaid in 2024. 602 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:48,040 Isn't the Dalton Kincaid thesis more yards and catches than it 603 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:49,200 is touchdowns? Isn't that? 604 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,400 Kind of. How they how they used him last 605 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:52,640 year. I mean, Dave said. 606 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,280 What's the point? The point is they don't have a a 607 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,840 #1 receiver like they don't have anyone. 608 00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,680 The Khalil Shakir's gonna be the guy who's gonna be the dude. 609 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:02,720 They just drafted him in the first round last year. 610 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,640 Round, Round one wide receiver is gonna. 611 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,640 I mean, I guess as long as it's not Keyon Coleman. 612 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,520 If it's Keyon Coleman that might, that might that might 613 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,600 return me around to being bullish on on Kincaid because I 614 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,680 don't think Coleman can play in the NFL. 615 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,880 But my deal with Kincaid, and this is this is going around in 616 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,760 the Brock Bowers discourse right now, is like, I thought Kincaid 617 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,360 was a bad first round pick. I I thought he was not the 618 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,200 archetype of a guy you should take in the first round anyways 619 00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,320 because he is. I mean he's like less athletic 620 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,320 than like an Evan Ingram you know he he did not like he 621 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,080 didn't do all the testing and the testing he did do was not 622 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,080 good. He also, I mean he was a he was 623 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,560 a 23 year old his final season at Utah this season that got him 624 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:49,000 drafted he he's going to turn 25 in this season. 625 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,760 So it's not like the Kyle Pitts is like still 19 years old like 626 00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,480 I just, I just kind of think Kincaid is like. 627 00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,600 Tell people 19 years old. It's. 628 00:30:59,960 --> 00:31:01,240 A. And then Jason Tatum, yeah. 629 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:02,880 Yeah, it's an NBA joke that flew over. 630 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:10,280 Greg just said Dalton Kincaid is like peak Jason Witten, It's 631 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,640 like what he is for the Bills, and I'm just super not. 632 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,800 Interested. OK, but if you talk about the 633 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,640 Bills, we were just talking about whether the Texans would 634 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,480 really push past volume. This has been a high pass right 635 00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,600 over expected team every year the last however long Four 636 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,360 Seasons I'm looking at Josh Allens attempts right now. 637 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,200 He's thrown at least 567 passes each of the last four years. 638 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,760 That's a year in 2022 where he missed a game or I guess they 639 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:34,200 actually had that game cancelled that year. 640 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,920 But in terms of past times per game I'm I'm quite confident 641 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,680 it's up near the league lead in every season so far they lost 642 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:42,760 from I'm not a vacated targets guy. 643 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,800 This will be the only time I'll offseason all all I'll note this 644 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,800 but other than just Stefan digs 160 targets. 645 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,200 Gabe Davis had 81 targets last year too. 646 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:55,320 They don't have anybody to catch the ball on a really high volume 647 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,600 passing offense. Curtis Samuel is gonna get the 648 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,120 ball. Curtis Samuel is gonna. 649 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:01,640 Get No, I think he's a good pick too. 650 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:06,080 I think it's crazy that the the Bills only have one dude in the 651 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:09,880 top 180P and then Samuel, and I mean Shakur's coming up as well. 652 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,160 Whoever the first round rookie. My point is is also in a great 653 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:14,840 spot. But Kincade can succeed 654 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,080 alongside them. They have so many available pass 655 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,040 attempts that that have to go somewhere, right? 656 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,280 I I think kind of what I'm saying is I don't even know if 657 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,520 he's capable of being a guy who can handle that level of volume 658 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,920 on an offense that wins games. Like I like I I don't know of 659 00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:33,360 building an offense around 7.9. A dot Dalton Kincaid throws 660 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:35,840 leads them to where they want to go. 661 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,640 I mean maybe I'm wrong, but like I so if my prior is, I didn't 662 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,040 like him really as a prospect. Thought he was a bad first round 663 00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,440 pick. He got a lot of empty 664 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,280 receptions. I mean, Sam, you want to talk 665 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,240 about a receptions merchant? Kincaid was a real receptions 666 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:52,880 merchant as a rookie. And you know the other. 667 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,400 The other weird thing is, you know they don't have any wide 668 00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,120 receivers. They signed Dawson Knox to his 669 00:32:58,120 --> 00:32:59,960 contract extension. They're going to still be 670 00:32:59,960 --> 00:33:03,200 playing a ton of 12 personnel I think this upcoming year, which 671 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,240 for touchdown stuff is not that good for him. 672 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:10,160 So on the receptions merchant thing I did, I was sort of 673 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,680 looking into historically good rookie tight end seasons. 674 00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:18,000 And over the last decade there's been 11 tight ends to clear 500 675 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,440 yards in a season. And I included Kelsey in this. 676 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,920 It was technically a second season, but he was red shirted 677 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:24,920 his first season. He was on IR the whole year so 678 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:29,520 but the the hits in this group of 11 are Kelsey Andrews and 679 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,840 Kittle obviously smashes elite tight ends. 680 00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,160 Then there's six guys that are. What do those guys have in 681 00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:39,400 common, Sam? Yeah, they're they're good. 682 00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:41,600 Yeah, exactly. I'll, I'll get to that. 683 00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,160 There's there's six guys that are sort of too early to tell. 684 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,920 Maybe we can argue on this, but I threw LaPorte and Kincaid in 685 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:48,320 this bucket since they're rookies. 686 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,840 Then Pitts Ingram's just kind of a middling veteran. 687 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,840 Then we have Fryer, Muth and Noah Fan, who are probably less 688 00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:56,080 likely to work out at this point. 689 00:33:56,280 --> 00:34:00,000 And then there's two kind of complete boss, Tim Wright from 690 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,720 Tampa and and Chris Herndon from The Jets. 691 00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:09,199 And out of these 11, Kincaid ranks consistently towards the 692 00:34:09,199 --> 00:34:13,960 back end in terms of sort of any type of efficiency, what what's 693 00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,199 that? Group that that includes Chris 694 00:34:16,199 --> 00:34:19,560 Herndon and Tim Wright and also Travis Kelsey like. 695 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,040 What just all all all rookie tight ends to clear 500 yards 696 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:24,320 the rookie season. OK. 697 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:26,880 People forget. People forget Chris Herndon. 698 00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:28,840 People forget. Yeah, it's just a it's a really 699 00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,320 small sample that is like it's a really wide skill set that I 700 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,880 don't know if it's going to be really predictive of anything. 701 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,520 No, no, I'm not. I'm not saying that it's 702 00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:41,120 predictive of anything. I'm just saying that in this 703 00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:46,360 group Kincaid is 10th out of 11 in yards per reception, 7th in 704 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:50,520 yards per route run, ninth in a dot 8th and yak per reception. 705 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,440 So of these guys, most of them my my point is most of them got 706 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:59,640 there on sort of elite per route efficiency and earning the ball, 707 00:34:59,720 --> 00:35:03,720 you know farther down the field. Kincaid basically just got there 708 00:35:03,720 --> 00:35:06,160 on compiling a ton of receptions. 709 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,920 So I am kind of skeptical. Like what? 710 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,040 What is the ceiling of that? Can he just like do what he did 711 00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:15,600 last year but at an even higher level, just rack up even more 712 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:21,320 678-A dot catches? Or does that game sort of have a 713 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,360 ceiling, which is where I I kind of fall somewhat in line with 714 00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,120 Davis's concerns? Is like, is building the entire 715 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,960 ship out of Dalton Kincaid, Is that a way to build a functional 716 00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:34,400 offense or is he more so capped at just sort of like, yeah, you 717 00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,320 know, Jason Witten, Dalton Schultz level. 718 00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,160 Play I don't think you build the whole ship out of him, but 719 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,320 there's some other work that I've seen. 720 00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,640 I can't remember who it is but somebody in the fantasy 721 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:48,600 community that that does head and stuff, I know they've 722 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:53,520 they've shown some like one of the big things about tight end 723 00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:57,200 hits is when they're one of the top two like target earners on 724 00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,040 their offense and something that I I heard this originally like. 725 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,120 Three years like. You put in the back of my mind 726 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,760 like so if it's like Dalton Schultz has three really good 727 00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,240 receivers on his team, there's no path for him to be a top two 728 00:36:07,240 --> 00:36:09,600 target earner on his offense. Dalton Kincaid. 729 00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,080 Feels like a. Lock at this point, I mean even 730 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,840 with a first round rookie. So it's it's something that 731 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,800 that's another group that historically has been really 732 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:18,560 positive. If you can just get targets from 733 00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:20,920 this position at tight end, it's good. 734 00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,480 There's only like 4 guys that get like 100 targets a year at 735 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,280 Titan, he's going to get 100 targets. 736 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,520 Just to frame it on the ADP conversation again and I, you 737 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,320 know, I agree with Gretch too, that like the Dalton Kincaid 738 00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:35,720 Bowl thesis, I really don't think should have even changed 739 00:36:35,720 --> 00:36:38,400 that much after the digs thing like there was already a ton of 740 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,640 targets there. So my argument is this ADP jump 741 00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:45,320 is the classic clay case of underdog market double counting, 742 00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,480 something where it's like guy move, therefore a change has to 743 00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:52,080 be happening. And so I would argue that this 744 00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:56,480 is like the pico top for his ADP and that when we know they're 745 00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:58,840 going to draft a wide receiver and it's probably going to be a 746 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,560 name that people relatively like, you know if it's a Brian 747 00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,680 Thomas or whoever. And then he's probably going to 748 00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:08,200 come like closer to where he was previous the jump. 749 00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,040 So that that's my only thing now of like I would rather let it 750 00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:14,080 seesaw back to where he was. Yeah, that should understand. 751 00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,600 That was Andrew Cooper coupe fiasco that I I thought it might 752 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,920 have been that name. I also want to say on you guys's 753 00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:27,480 A dot .3 point 9A dot weeks one to 97.95 by my numbers weeks 10 754 00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,320 to 18. They did all all that stuff in 755 00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,640 the first half of the year. This is one of those trends that 756 00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:35,080 we have, the primacy effect, where like this is what was 757 00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:36,120 happening in the first half of the year. 758 00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:37,920 And so we lock in. Like that's what his profile 759 00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,560 was. They expanded what they were 760 00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:42,600 doing with Dalton Kincaid in the second-half of the season. 761 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:44,360 That was the first half of his rookie year. 762 00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:48,440 And then they actually did have him at like a legitimate tight 763 00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:51,200 end, a dot of 7.9. That's actually slightly above 764 00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,920 the average for tight ends in the second-half of the season. 765 00:37:54,080 --> 00:38:00,080 His full season numbers show a really low a dot, but he was 766 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,440 good in the second-half of the season like he was, I think a 767 00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:03,960 little bit better than the first half. 768 00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:06,920 So anyway, that's another note I want to throw out there. 769 00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:09,240 That's fair. It's just it's getting to a 770 00:38:09,240 --> 00:38:12,760 point like when he's like 3 or 4 picks away from Mark Andrews and 771 00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,120 like 10 picks ahead of George Kittle. 772 00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:16,920 I just have the thought on my back of my mind. 773 00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,680 It's just like, are we overthinking and taking him, you 774 00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:23,480 know, over guys that we just know are really good and have 775 00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:26,400 been consistently good for five years? 776 00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,720 Like it's. Viciously not naming he who must 777 00:38:28,720 --> 00:38:31,280 Not be Named amongst the tight ends. 778 00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:34,720 Ultimately this is what it is, is there's Kincaid people and 779 00:38:34,720 --> 00:38:37,200 there's pits people and there are not good people on both 780 00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:39,240 sides. There are no good people in this 781 00:38:39,240 --> 00:38:42,920 conversation, and I I am a pit slappy. 782 00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:46,240 I obviously understand what I'm going into, like I'm gonna end 783 00:38:46,240 --> 00:38:48,560 up, I'm gonna end up hating the Zach Robinson guy. 784 00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,120 As much as I hated Arthur Smith, I'm talking about his. 785 00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:53,640 Preschool buddy like that. Yeah, it look, it is. 786 00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,160 It is what it is. I I can't. 787 00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:01,240 I cannot have Kincaid because I have pits ranked higher and I 788 00:39:01,240 --> 00:39:03,840 prefer Pitts's range of outcomes a lot. 789 00:39:04,240 --> 00:39:06,400 Well, the the guy you should have behind both of them is 790 00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,280 Andrews. No. 791 00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,360 Andrews is like a lock. Andrews is. 792 00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:13,480 I take Andrews over McBride. Go look at his profile last year 793 00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:16,280 and how it changed in in a new offense. 794 00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:18,920 Little bit different. Little bit different. 795 00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:23,400 So, so yes. But the the wide receivers that 796 00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:25,320 we thought was going to be good, like all they're they're going 797 00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,640 to play all this 11% like, no, they all suck. 798 00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:29,680 Beckham's gone. Bateman stinks. 799 00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:32,760 It's the whole plane is built out of say Flowers and Marc 800 00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:36,520 Andrews. But you are you are right Greg. 801 00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:40,040 His A dot came down like 2 yards from his previous career low. 802 00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:43,240 His target Sprout run also came down with a lower A dot. 803 00:39:43,240 --> 00:39:45,360 So like if you do like a weighted target sprout run way 804 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,440 down. There's still a lot of volume 805 00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,840 there too but it's not like that much better of a like when we 806 00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,920 well Sam said like these guys that we know are good and I I 807 00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,920 guess my argument would be we know Mark Andrews is good but 808 00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:58,640 like his usage can shift around too. 809 00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,560 He's in a new offense last year and it it did change and. 810 00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:04,680 Every season's independent. The way that I look at it, I 811 00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,040 mean, I think you have to project forward, right? 812 00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:10,960 Sam, like circling back full circle on where we started. 813 00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,840 Do you, what do you think in general about the overall tight 814 00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:18,120 end prices let's say from like Kelsey to Kittle like this, you 815 00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,120 know mid elite tier here. Do you, do you think those are 816 00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:23,280 efficient? Do you think that it's a buying 817 00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:24,840 opportunity? Yeah. 818 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,000 I mean I think overall I'm, I'm overweight on them. 819 00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,560 I I I think, I mean we've talked about Pitts enough. 820 00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:33,800 We don't have to get into that. I'm I'm pretty in on Kittle 821 00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,280 Andrews, McBride, Kelsey like full stop. 822 00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,080 I think Kincaid is fine and I'm I'm probably like want to be a 823 00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:41,360 little underweight Pitts. But I do agree overall like 824 00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:46,080 macro that it's a buying opportunity on these guys. 825 00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,720 And yeah it's just like this weird thing where you never 826 00:40:49,720 --> 00:40:53,000 really have to reach on them because one of them's always 827 00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:57,200 going to be floating around. So yeah, I think it probably 828 00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:00,600 doesn't move like I don't know what's going to cause it to move 829 00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:04,120 up from an ADP perspective. So yeah, it feels, it feels like 830 00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:10,040 a pretty solid buy for me. Let's talk these rookie wide 831 00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:15,400 receivers they're both up, which I can only imagine is just sort 832 00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:19,320 of pre draft excitement. There's there's obviously no no 833 00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:23,720 news driving Malik Neighbors or Marvin Harrison junior up I 834 00:41:23,720 --> 00:41:27,480 guess well there. There is probably news on 835 00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:29,840 Neighbors, which is this continued drum beat, that some 836 00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,960 teams view Neighbors as the number one wide receiver versus 837 00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,800 Marvin Harrison Junior. That's what's driving him up. 838 00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,840 The Harrison stuff is just boredom. 839 00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:40,760 Yeah, it's just, it's just boredom, I think, and we'll 840 00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:43,720 probably see it cracked a little bit post draft. 841 00:41:43,720 --> 00:41:46,640 But I did want to get in the conversation of landing spots 842 00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:50,840 for these guys because I think compared to the normal wide 843 00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:53,880 receiver, like usually the top wide receivers are going more so 844 00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:56,400 in the teens. These guys are both projected to 845 00:41:56,400 --> 00:42:00,360 be like top five, top 7 picks. So we do have a little bit more 846 00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:03,200 certainty about their landing spots than we do with the 847 00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,360 typical rookie wide receiver I put together. 848 00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:10,480 So here here are all picks from pick three to pick ten. 849 00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:13,840 I think with like almost absolute certainty none of these 850 00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:17,640 guys are dropping past pick 10. Obviously a trade up could 851 00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:21,800 happen from some team but I think that's pretty unlikely and 852 00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,160 I I wrote this article, you can check it out and establish the 853 00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:28,120 run about the top rookie wide receiver landing spot. 854 00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:32,320 So I have that ranked here. I have you know Chargers and 855 00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:34,400 Cardinals being top three landing spots. 856 00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:38,680 You know Patriots, Giants and Jets being decent landing spots. 857 00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:42,760 Some spots of the Titans and Bears I think are quite bad. 858 00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:46,200 And when I look at this, it's just like, man, if these guys 859 00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:49,760 land where they're likely to land, Cardinals, Chargers, and 860 00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,960 Giants, like those are just. I think even Giants. 861 00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,720 Like it sounds gross, but there's just no wide receivers 862 00:42:56,720 --> 00:42:58,960 there that they're immediately going to project for such an 863 00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:02,240 insanely high target share that it's not even it's not even that 864 00:43:02,240 --> 00:43:05,640 bad of a landing spot, even though it it sounds gross. 865 00:43:06,240 --> 00:43:09,560 The only thing you're like avoiding with these guys is like 866 00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:13,200 these landmines and the Titans and bears, which I do think are 867 00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:17,440 like true landmine landing spots for their year one fantasy 868 00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:19,920 production. But if you don't get that like 869 00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,760 it, it's just it just looks pretty good here. 870 00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:26,200 So I'll, I'll stop ranting. Anybody have thoughts on landing 871 00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,960 spots for these guys and whether it's like appropriately priced 872 00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:31,880 in? I mean, Giants is such a dusty 873 00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,560 spot if the offensive line is as bad as it was last year. 874 00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:37,640 Yeah, I kind of disagree that they'd be 10th. 875 00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:40,360 I think I would take the the Bears landing spot over the 876 00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,520 Giants straight up you get Caleb Williams. 877 00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,680 You do have a lot of target. I I see where you're going from 878 00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:51,160 the project projections angle and it being easy to project 879 00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:54,640 more volume in the Giants. But like the fact that you'd 880 00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:57,040 have a a better offense and a better quarterback and it 881 00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:58,600 usually leads to higher efficiency. 882 00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,920 I mean like if they land with the Bears, they're going to be 883 00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,920 like the the tank Dell of the Chicago passing game would be 884 00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,000 the theory, right? I mean, that doesn't guarantee 885 00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,960 that Caleb Williams is going to do what CJ Stroud did, but 886 00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:12,200 they're still going to be the the clear number three in the 887 00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:15,880 three-way passing game. I mean, that seems pretty solid. 888 00:44:16,720 --> 00:44:21,840 Yeah, we've also seen another LSU wide receiver go to a Giants 889 00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:25,400 team in round one with perceived bad quarterback play who had one 890 00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,400 of the best rookie wide receiver seasons of all time, earning a 891 00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,480 ton of volume and doing a lot after. 892 00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:32,280 Wow. Where where is Bill Barnwell on 893 00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:33,920 the league Neighbors I I got to figure. 894 00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,960 It out. One thing on the I guess on the 895 00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:40,720 eight I think I may be closer to, I don't. 896 00:44:40,720 --> 00:44:43,880 I don't mind the giant spot. And one thing I've heard said 897 00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:46,200 too that does give me a little confidence is that like, Dabal's 898 00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,720 not an idiot, you know? And like, he will build the 899 00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,640 offense out of Malik Neighbors if they spend this high of a 900 00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,160 pick on him. So that's kind of exciting. 901 00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:56,840 And like, isn't the whole thesis with Malik neighbors and the 902 00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,600 whole reason he's even inching up into the Marvin Harrison 903 00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,040 conversation because of what he does after the catch? 904 00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:06,080 Like he's just such a dynamite yak guy, which if he's getting 905 00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:08,160 schemed, you know, 7-8 targets a game. 906 00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:09,920 Like you're the lightest scrimmage and just letting him 907 00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,560 ball out like that sounds pretty fun to me for fantasy. 908 00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,120 Yeah, I also push back on the Bears. 909 00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:19,880 Like, I I do feel pretty good about it being a bottom 10 910 00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:21,920 landing spot. I mean, DJ Moore and Keenan 911 00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:28,520 Allen, you have to really squint to see a world in which they're 912 00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:33,080 not just eating up a huge share of their team's targets, And I 913 00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,600 get that. I don't know, like I get it's a 914 00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,440 bit of a projections angle and we're looking towards the end of 915 00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:42,920 the season, but we've seen rookie wide receivers blocked by 916 00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:44,920 veterans like that happens all the time. 917 00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:48,400 People wanted to ignore it last year with JSN and now that's 918 00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:51,880 like the entire excuse for some people as to why he wasn't good 919 00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:53,840 as a rookie. We're also talking about a 920 00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:56,160 rookie quarterback. Like, I love Caleb Willens as a 921 00:45:56,160 --> 00:46:00,240 prospect, but it is really few and far between that we get the 922 00:46:00,240 --> 00:46:04,160 CJ Stroud rookie seasons. It's way more likely you get the 923 00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,280 Trevor Lawrence rookie season, then you get the CJ Stroud 924 00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:09,600 rookie season, just from like a probability standpoint. 925 00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:14,280 So I do, I guess like I can see the ultimate sealing case. 926 00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:16,880 It it works better for the Bears than it does for Giants, but I 927 00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:21,440 think in most outcomes, I feel pretty solidly better about the 928 00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:22,400 Giants. Those. 929 00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:25,880 I mean those those are not like controversial points that you 930 00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:27,360 made. I guess I would just argue that 931 00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:30,160 it kind of depends what you're looking for because I feel, I 932 00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,000 mean I I agree with you especially about the rookie 933 00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:35,200 quarterback stuff and and I don't think we can just 934 00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,880 guarantee especially just from a volume perspective that Caleb 935 00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:43,120 Williams is going to be able to elevate multiple receivers right 936 00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:44,920 out of the gate. But I guess I would just say 937 00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:47,720 from, and I, I, I agree with you and Pete's points about the 938 00:46:47,720 --> 00:46:49,880 Giants too. But from 10th to 25th, it's 939 00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:52,880 probably just not a meaningful difference, right? 940 00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,080 Like there's some spots that are very clearly hits. 941 00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:56,320 They have a great quarterback in place. 942 00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:58,280 They have target volume available. 943 00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:00,760 There's some spots like I would agree with the Titans, I, I 944 00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:04,000 don't want to land with like probably not a ton of target 945 00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,560 volume and I don't know if the quarterback's any good, you 946 00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:08,560 know, So it's kind of those two things when they're both going 947 00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:12,680 against you, it's bad. I think, you know, for the, like 948 00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:14,840 another point about the Bears thing is just like when you get 949 00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:17,400 that crowded of a room and the only thing is target volume, 950 00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,760 that's holding them down. There is a case that like 951 00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:21,520 injuries can open things up, right? 952 00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:23,400 Like Keenan Allen's been banged up the last couple years. 953 00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:26,200 I think it's a big reason why he's still going where he's 954 00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:27,320 going. I think he should be going 955 00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:30,080 higher, but people expect that he'll miss a few games with a 956 00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:32,200 hamstring. And I saw something on Twitter 957 00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:35,240 the other day that was like he's one of the highest expected 958 00:47:35,240 --> 00:47:37,360 injury, you know, some, one of those injury predicting things. 959 00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,480 That said he's one of the expect, highest expected guys to 960 00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,480 miss some time. So when you get these things, 961 00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:45,600 it's like, oh, my point is I'm elite neighbors level talent. 962 00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:49,080 These guys are both considered to be like generational, which 963 00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:51,600 is definitely the definition of generational. 964 00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:54,120 There's two generational prospects in the same class. 965 00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:59,520 I think that's how that works. You put that guy even alongside 966 00:47:59,960 --> 00:48:02,960 the argument is they could be as good as Keenan Allen or DJ Moore 967 00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,160 in a couple of years potentially right away. 968 00:48:05,160 --> 00:48:08,840 Some some guys are that good right away and and these two are 969 00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:12,600 they're as prospects talked. About as if they could be on 970 00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:16,840 that level that makes sense. Curious what you guys think. 971 00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:20,320 Like I I think whatever you want to call the best landing spot, 972 00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:22,960 whether it's the Cardinals or Chargers, I think for me, those 973 00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,120 are pretty clearly the top. Two, it's definitely not the 974 00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,560 Chargers, right? Like the Chargers are gonna 975 00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:32,200 throw like 417 forward passes. If they take, I'm like imagine 976 00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:35,760 them taking a wide receiver at #5 overall, how is that not a 977 00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:38,400 clear signal that they? Want that's a massive hit? 978 00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:41,120 You're out of your mind. We can't. 979 00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:46,120 We can't be that accurate on our our predictions of of volume. 980 00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:48,720 I do think you're right. That's the most likely outcome 981 00:48:48,720 --> 00:48:51,640 for the Chargers. But you also have a guarantee of 982 00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:55,400 a a quarterback that can help the efficiency of the receiver 983 00:48:55,600 --> 00:48:58,200 and the only target competition is Josh Palmer and Quinton 984 00:48:58,200 --> 00:48:59,440 Johnston. Like this. 985 00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:04,160 These guys aren't good and. It's it's like, I I understand 986 00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:06,360 those concerns, but like, at least when you do the Patriots 987 00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:07,760 thing, you have both those concerns, right? 988 00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:09,960 They're going to just run the ball a shit ton and you have a 989 00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:12,480 bad quarterback. I mean, this is Justin Herbert, 990 00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:16,480 and he has proven that he can feed an alpha wide receiver. 991 00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:20,040 I think even with Jim Harbaugh's influence, like this guy's going 992 00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:23,560 to get fed. Yeah, that's my thought too. 993 00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:28,520 Whoever goes to whoever goes to the Chargers is going to have a 994 00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:31,560 good fine season. There are gonna be some. 995 00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:33,720 They'll get routes right away, which not every. 996 00:49:33,720 --> 00:49:35,640 We'll get routes right away, which. 997 00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:37,480 Is, Yeah. Can't you see Harbaugh being a 998 00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:39,240 Hardo about that, though? A little bit? 999 00:49:39,240 --> 00:49:41,960 Can't you see Harbaugh being like, work hard enough? 1000 00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:43,480 Did I see Jim Harbaugh being a Hardo? 1001 00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:45,320 Yes. I don't even have to squint. 1002 00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:48,480 But don't you think you'll hate Quint Johnston more than 1003 00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:50,440 whoever? I mean, the advantage is Malik 1004 00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:54,080 Neighbors shows up and he's is is Jim Harbaugh going to be a 1005 00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:56,320 hard O on Neighbors or on Quentin Johnston? 1006 00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:57,800 He's got to pick one of two young. 1007 00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,440 Players I can see. I can see Harbaugh making QJ 1008 00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:03,800 like his pet project of being like I'm going to rehabilitate 1009 00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:05,360 you son. We are going to we are going to 1010 00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:09,400 make you an NFL ball player. I mean I just I am so Chargers 1011 00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:13,520 phobic to the point that to the point that I don't even like 1012 00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:16,800 clicking Justin Herbert as quarterback 14 which is like so 1013 00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:19,400 clearly a screaming value. It's like probably the best 1014 00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,760 value on the board at quarterback and he and I'm just 1015 00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,640 like, do I have to, do I have to? 1016 00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:28,840 Do I have to back door Justin Herbert and Quentin Johnson on 1017 00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:30,200 this team? It's so brutal. 1018 00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:34,080 When you said that, it it it just clicked for me that the 1019 00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,720 whole thing with Quentin Johnson is how big of a game he had 1020 00:50:36,720 --> 00:50:39,320 against Michigan against Jim Harbaugh. 1021 00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:42,680 Yes, in the College Football Playoff when TCU won that 1022 00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:44,800 shootout, he couldn't. Oh man. 1023 00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:47,080 Jim Harbaugh. Like he like he remembers that 1024 00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:48,400 this dude crushed him in that game. 1025 00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:51,280 Yes, he This is literally how it's it's literally how he's 1026 00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:53,600 making decisions. Did Neighbors or Harrison ever 1027 00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:56,200 go against Michigan in college? We should, we should look into 1028 00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:58,040 that, Yeah. Harrison did Harrison. 1029 00:50:58,040 --> 00:50:59,680 Definitely. And he wasn't very good. 1030 00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:04,160 He wasn't very good. OK, he's taking neighbors over, 1031 00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:08,800 Harrison then heard here. 1st. Let's hit on some followers 1032 00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:12,720 here, Rasheed Rice. He continues to sort of drop 1033 00:51:12,720 --> 00:51:15,840 like a stone in these drafts. He's now down to pick 43. 1034 00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:20,800 This is obviously off the aggravated assault charged from 1035 00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:24,440 his reckless speeding incident a couple weeks ago. 1036 00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:29,480 Yeah, let's. Harrison had a Davis. 1037 00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:33,040 Harrison had 118 and ATD and 120 of the TD. 1038 00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:35,560 It is too much against Michigan. Bust. 1039 00:51:35,720 --> 00:51:38,040 Below. Below, that's below his per game 1040 00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:41,440 averages, so. Against an elite defense, he had 1041 00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:44,240 118 in both games and ATD in both games. 1042 00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:46,880 I guess, I guess I just remembered Ohio State losing and 1043 00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:48,840 assumed he did not do that good to be honest. 1044 00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,120 Yeah. We we can keep this somewhat 1045 00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:53,880 shorter than our eyes. I think it's been talked about a 1046 00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:57,960 lot, but does this aggravated assault thing worry you guys? 1047 00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:01,080 Taking him like every draft right now, he's gonna miss, he's 1048 00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:03,640 gonna miss like 2 games, he's gonna miss like 2 games. 1049 00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:08,080 I'm taking him a lot too, but I don't think this is a wrong 1050 00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:09,720 price. I mean, this gets into a whole 1051 00:52:09,720 --> 00:52:12,760 discussion that I think is really interesting around risk. 1052 00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:16,000 And like at the time that we make these decisions, we can't 1053 00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:19,120 quantify what this risk is. And so they wind up going in a 1054 00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:22,440 no man's land where they're guaranteed to have either been 1055 00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:26,160 undervalued or overvalued. But what like the the risk that 1056 00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:29,360 gets brought into play here changes the opportunity cost 1057 00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:32,840 equation which is why the player drops and that doesn't mean the 1058 00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:35,600 ADP is wrong. Now when we have to make the 1059 00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:39,200 decision, there's uncertainty and we're tasked with trying to 1060 00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:41,720 define that. If we have no issue with Rashid 1061 00:52:41,720 --> 00:52:44,680 Rice's uncertainty, which I with the specifics of this case with 1062 00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:47,120 the fact that the charges didn't include anything with the guns 1063 00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:50,560 rumors or anything with like DUI related alcohol, substance abuse 1064 00:52:50,560 --> 00:52:53,080 related. It was all like reckless driving 1065 00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:54,760 and endangerment which is still serious. 1066 00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:57,800 But the stuff that I've seen with the the specifics around 1067 00:52:57,800 --> 00:53:00,680 this seem that like it's probably not going to be a 1068 00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:06,000 massive response in terms of the suspension and everything that's 1069 00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:08,520 a guess. But there is risk and so the the 1070 00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:11,200 shift in ADP and everything I I there's the discussion on this 1071 00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,680 drives me nuts because people are always like his price is 1072 00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:16,560 wrong and it's like yes his price is going to prove to have 1073 00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,520 been wrong. When we have more information 1074 00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:20,720 it's either going to be higher or it's going to be way lower. 1075 00:53:20,720 --> 00:53:22,520 If he gets to spend for like the whole season he's not going to 1076 00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:25,040 get drafted. But there's a small amount of 1077 00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:26,840 risk in all of these off the field situations. 1078 00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:30,320 We can't quantify it and the opportunity cost equation does 1079 00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:32,320 change, like where we should be drafting the player. 1080 00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:35,720 Yeah. My thing is that I don't think 1081 00:53:35,720 --> 00:53:38,880 the risk is going to go away anytime soon. 1082 00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:40,960 This is going to be a prolonged thing where there's going to be 1083 00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:42,880 uncertainty throughout the offseason. 1084 00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,680 And as that happens, I think we'll get some incremental news 1085 00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:49,640 about the legal proceedings, but it's not going to be decided. 1086 00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:54,480 So where I am is I think this is a good price to be taking him. 1087 00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:57,960 I don't think like I'm not racing to the board and picking 1088 00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,000 him every single time just because I think we're going to 1089 00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:04,560 get this discount for a while. It's going to last for a long 1090 00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:06,200 period of time. So if you want to take a really 1091 00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:09,520 risk on strategy and be like I'm taking rice every time, I think 1092 00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:11,400 that's fine. I just think there is this like 1093 00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:14,800 risk like you, you put it graduates like unquantifiable 1094 00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:18,560 right now, what exactly it is. So I do understand the decrease 1095 00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:22,240 in ADP. Two thoughts on that too. 1096 00:54:22,240 --> 00:54:27,480 I think the other thing is for why his ADP could get 1097 00:54:27,480 --> 00:54:33,360 significantly cheaper than this is if this event makes them even 1098 00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:36,560 more likely to spend their first round pick on a wide receiver. 1099 00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:39,760 Like I don't know what the true odds of that were before, like 1100 00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,040 it could have been maybe closer to a coin flip like if this 1101 00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:44,920 pushes them more to that. I think similar to the Kincaid 1102 00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:47,080 stuff with like double counting, like I think people would 1103 00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:50,480 naturally want to push Rice back a little bit when they add a 1104 00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:53,400 wide receiver. So if you couple that with the 1105 00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:57,440 legal proceedings drawing out to me, you have like 2 events that 1106 00:54:57,440 --> 00:54:59,240 I think can only push his ADP down. 1107 00:54:59,240 --> 00:55:02,320 Whereas it's hard to envision anything getting cleared up with 1108 00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:04,720 this legal wise that would cause him to move up. 1109 00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:09,040 Which does just seem we're going to have like a slow steady push 1110 00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:11,760 down until like there's a someone saying like I'm not 1111 00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:13,400 letting him go any further than this. 1112 00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:16,760 I'm already doing that and sounds like Davis is already 1113 00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:18,520 doing that. I had him as a first, second 1114 00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:23,440 turn value based on his profile before any of this came up, I 1115 00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:25,240 thought he was pretty significantly, yeah. 1116 00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:28,360 Add a first round wide receiver in there to take away all the 1117 00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:33,560 dust Skymore, Mccole Hardman, Justin Watson, Noah Gray targets 1118 00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,360 and you've got to like 120 targets right there, which 1119 00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:39,600 leaves Kelsey and Rice like completely unbothered. 1120 00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:43,240 And if my base supposition is right that the Chiefs are going 1121 00:55:43,240 --> 00:55:44,960 to want to score more points this year. 1122 00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:49,520 Rice is a huge and like I guess my vast experience has been in 1123 00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:51,640 in the past I've played situations like this too 1124 00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:54,360 conservatively and then have just, you know looked at the 1125 00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:55,760 giga chads who said I don't care. 1126 00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:57,960 I'm probably going to lose anyways and they have a bunch of 1127 00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:02,000 cheap Tyree kill or or whoever. Did you just call? 1128 00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:04,880 Yourself a giga Chad for having invented the I'm going to lose 1129 00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:07,120 anyways. No, no, I'm saying, I'm saying 1130 00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:08,720 the opposite. I'm saying I've been unwilling 1131 00:56:08,720 --> 00:56:12,400 to be a giga Chad in the past and yeah. 1132 00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:15,040 You're sophisticated auto drafter the past couple years. 1133 00:56:15,040 --> 00:56:16,440 Right. Sophisticated auto drafter. 1134 00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:21,520 And I mean Rice. Of the picks after like 5th to 1135 00:56:21,600 --> 00:56:25,200 8th round, I mean he offers the best asymmetric upside because 1136 00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:28,280 the market already told you we think this guy's worth the 1137 00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:30,480 second round pick. But now, because we think 1138 00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:33,640 there's a chance he misses four games, he's now not and. 1139 00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:37,240 And there's people like that that in the chat, this Mr. 1140 00:56:37,240 --> 00:56:39,640 Popinski said, didn't he flee the scene with Glocks and drugs 1141 00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:43,360 like that was the rumor that's that they when they charged him. 1142 00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:46,680 I actually was more comfortable taking Rashi Rice after that and 1143 00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:49,440 I saw him starting to slide in my in my slow. 1144 00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:52,160 I happened to be right in that range of my drafts in in all my 1145 00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:53,920 slow drafts. And he was falling behind 80P 1146 00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:56,080 and everything. He won at that point because 1147 00:56:56,080 --> 00:56:58,280 these charges came out. And then if you were watching 1148 00:56:58,280 --> 00:57:00,080 the legal people on Twitter, they're like, yeah, we knew 1149 00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,760 charges were coming. This isn't a huge surprise, and 1150 00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:06,040 it's actually vaguely good news because nothing about Glocks or 1151 00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:09,120 like about guns or drugs was in the charges. 1152 00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:12,760 The charges were all like reckless endangerment and stuff 1153 00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:14,920 like that, which is still. Serious, well, aggravated 1154 00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:18,080 assault was one of the charges which if if you can put the odds 1155 00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:20,760 of him actually being charged with this at like really low, 1156 00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:23,360 which I think is fair. But that charge does come with 1157 00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:27,680 minimum two years in prison. So I I agree with you, Gretchen. 1158 00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:29,680 But it didn't. It didn't have a the gut, the 1159 00:57:29,680 --> 00:57:30,520 gun thing. No, no. 1160 00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:31,360 Yeah. No. 1161 00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:32,240 Yeah. Yeah, exactly. 1162 00:57:32,240 --> 00:57:35,200 None of that stuff. But still they that was to me a 1163 00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:38,760 little bit of news that like, OK there there is this downside 1164 00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:41,440 risk that exists. I think it's extremely low he 1165 00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:44,480 gets charged with this. I'm just saying like I'm not a 1166 00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:45,520 lawyer. Yeah. 1167 00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:47,160 And we don't, we don't know. So. 1168 00:57:47,160 --> 00:57:49,400 That's fair quote, criminal as that's. 1169 00:57:51,440 --> 00:57:52,640 Fair, that's. Fair. 1170 00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:56,200 Criminal. That's I mean if yeah, like we 1171 00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:58,360 saw it with like I didn't think classical burst when he shot 1172 00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:00,360 himself was actually going to go to jail for that and he end up 1173 00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:02,200 going to jail for it in the middle of his NFL career. 1174 00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:04,120 Like like it's. Crazy, I forgot. 1175 00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:06,720 It was insane. And and we, I mean, how many 1176 00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:09,560 times have we seen this with like the wheels of justice 1177 00:58:09,560 --> 00:58:13,400 specifically for the NFL just moving at a molasses pace. 1178 00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:15,880 I mean how it's like every single example. 1179 00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:18,400 When do when do one of these ever get resolved quickly? 1180 00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:19,400 It's. It's never. 1181 00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:22,600 And one more thing I'll just say about Rice's profile is if 1182 00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:25,480 you're really concerned about Rice and not willing to take him 1183 00:58:25,480 --> 00:58:28,080 at this ADP, 'cause this is another team where there's a lot 1184 00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:30,720 of targets that are going to go around Brought in Marquis Brown, 1185 00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:33,360 but he's probably not a huge target under more of a vertical 1186 00:58:33,400 --> 00:58:35,080 kind of weapon. They might use him around the 1187 00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:37,680 line of scrimmage, but he's never been like a massive target 1188 00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:40,600 share guy and there's there's enough for him and other people. 1189 00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:43,720 If you're not really into Rice at this price, then I would 1190 00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:46,920 argue that you think Travis Kelsey is a screaming value 1191 00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:49,040 cause. Part of the Rice part of the 1192 00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:51,400 Rice upside is that Kelsey's getting so old and we're 1193 00:58:51,400 --> 00:58:54,080 drafting him in the fourth round and he's no longer that clear 1194 00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:57,200 guy in the intermediate range that Rice is the dude that takes 1195 00:58:57,200 --> 00:58:59,040 over those targets. That was why I was so excited 1196 00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:01,400 about Rice. But if you're not in on Rice, 1197 00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:03,320 then you should be in on Kelsey. For sure, yeah. 1198 00:59:03,720 --> 00:59:06,640 Kelsey fell off last year, except when he was their best 1199 00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:10,560 player by far in their playoff run, so that's, yeah. 1200 00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:12,320 More and more people are saying this all the. 1201 00:59:12,920 --> 00:59:14,320 Time, you know? I think we all agree too. 1202 00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:17,720 Like if Davis's thesis from earlier of Mahomes regressing 1203 00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:21,120 back to the mean as far as like the passing output and all that, 1204 00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:24,440 like there is room for multiple of these guys to eat for sure, 1205 00:59:24,520 --> 00:59:28,120 you know, like, yeah, it doesn't have to be like an alpha dog and 1206 00:59:28,120 --> 00:59:29,640 then everyone else is just scraps. 1207 00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:34,640 Pete, I know you maybe. Had AI got a dip out? 1208 00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:36,360 Yeah. OK, cool. 1209 00:59:37,360 --> 00:59:40,920 If you, Davis and Gretch have time two more players I wanted 1210 00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:44,320 to hit on see you. Guys, letter PP, thanks for 1211 00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:48,440 joining us and I think if you mention it, but for anyone who 1212 00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:54,800 doesn't know we're not doing a a ship chasing on on Thursday like 1213 00:59:54,800 --> 00:59:55,840 normal. I just want to. 1214 00:59:55,840 --> 00:59:57,800 Prep it. Prep it for the five hour draft 1215 00:59:57,800 --> 00:59:59,520 stream. That's right, the draft stream 1216 00:59:59,520 --> 01:00:03,520 is the next one. Yeah, Romeo Dubs this, this 1217 01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:07,280 whole Packers wide receiver situation is an interesting one 1218 01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:11,120 I wanted to throw up here. So the comparison of it's either 1219 01:00:11,120 --> 01:00:15,160 talked about as four guys. I threw Melton on here for fun 1220 01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:18,480 because he did have a legitimate role down the stretch last year 1221 01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:22,560 so I added him. But these five guys, you know, 1222 01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:26,040 range from Jaden Reed at ADP around 60 to Beau Melton, 1223 01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:31,000 basically undrafted here. I have sort of the yards per out 1224 01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:35,200 run, targets per out run, fantasy points per game and 1225 01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:40,000 their route rate in both games played last year and in the 1226 01:00:40,000 --> 01:00:41,720 playoffs. And I I thought it was most 1227 01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:44,320 interesting when I did this. So you know, Packers in the 1228 01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:46,360 playoffs, you know they're, they're facing the Cowboys and 1229 01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:48,280 the 49ers, everything's on the line. 1230 01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:52,480 They're trying to make the NFC championship game and who is 1231 01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:56,040 their clear starting wide receiver in terms of routes? 1232 01:00:56,480 --> 01:00:58,800 It's Romeo Dubs. He's at 81%. 1233 01:00:59,120 --> 01:01:01,800 You know Watson was coming back from injury over the past couple 1234 01:01:01,800 --> 01:01:03,160 weeks. He's down at 40. 1235 01:01:03,400 --> 01:01:06,600 Reid is just that 60 ish percent over those two games. 1236 01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:08,680 I just thought that. Reid. 1237 01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:11,760 Reid was hurt, too. Yeah. 1238 01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:14,760 Was he banged up, 'cause he didn't, He didn't miss any time? 1239 01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:16,600 It was a little bit of a surprise. 1240 01:01:16,800 --> 01:01:18,200 It was a little bit of a surprise, a legit. 1241 01:01:18,680 --> 01:01:21,360 Game time decision. I don't think so. 1242 01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:24,440 I think it was a surprise that his route rate was this low 1243 01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:26,000 cause in all of our playoff contests. 1244 01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,280 I remember Leone being like it. We we like. 1245 01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:30,560 We played a decent amount of read and we were surprised at 1246 01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:32,680 his route rate, like it was something after the fact that 1247 01:01:32,680 --> 01:01:36,240 Leone highlighted to us. He had a rib injury, so from 1248 01:01:36,240 --> 01:01:37,880 week. I don't think it was a 1249 01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:40,280 legitimate game that was. Earlier in the season that he 1250 01:01:40,280 --> 01:01:42,120 was a game time decision, right? Wasn't that like from? 1251 01:01:42,120 --> 01:01:48,320 From Week 14 on, he goes 42 percent, 31 percent, 60%, 46 1252 01:01:48,320 --> 01:01:52,120 percent, 61% of the snaps he He suffered that rib injury that 1253 01:01:52,120 --> 01:01:57,720 caused him to miss Week 16, and he never got back to full 1254 01:01:58,120 --> 01:02:00,680 touches after. But, but I guess my point is, so 1255 01:02:00,680 --> 01:02:03,120 I have the route rate in games played last year and I realize 1256 01:02:03,120 --> 01:02:06,760 there's some injury stuff in there as well but it's not his 1257 01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:09,400 route rate in games played last year was also 60%. 1258 01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:13,600 Like he was very rarely a full time player like all of last 1259 01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:15,680 year. That that's you can take that in 1260 01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:17,360 two ways right? You can be like that's a little 1261 01:02:17,360 --> 01:02:20,280 bearish maybe there's just going to be this messy rotation next 1262 01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:23,280 year or you could say hey he's the most efficient on a yards 1263 01:02:23,280 --> 01:02:25,200 per out run, targets per out run basis. 1264 01:02:25,440 --> 01:02:27,280 They're going to scale him up next year. 1265 01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:30,600 I just think my take is like, I think this Packers thing is 1266 01:02:30,600 --> 01:02:33,800 gonna be like a messy 4. It's gonna be and. 1267 01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:38,400 Rotation and I'm not sure. Like, I I love the the 1268 01:02:39,080 --> 01:02:43,280 archetypal bets of the Year 2 breakouts, but I think I lean 1269 01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:46,840 towards like Watson, dubs, Wicks, even Melton last round 1270 01:02:46,840 --> 01:02:49,080 shots. Like, I don't know, man. 1271 01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:51,800 Like the the Jaden Reid thing, I think is just gonna be so, so 1272 01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:54,840 frustrating next year, 'cause they have no reason to relegate 1273 01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:57,200 any of these other guys. Like Melton and Wicks played 1274 01:02:57,560 --> 01:02:59,440 awesome in their limited roles last year, right? 1275 01:02:59,440 --> 01:03:01,880 Like I don't. Know is awesome. 1276 01:03:02,240 --> 01:03:05,080 Wix. Wix was a good college player I 1277 01:03:05,080 --> 01:03:07,000 have. Let's see here. 1278 01:03:07,440 --> 01:03:11,240 Yeah, he's got 25% Wix across 150 teams. 1279 01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:17,800 I think he's a really good pick. I in my draft so far, I took a 1280 01:03:17,800 --> 01:03:20,080 lot of receivers in Jane Reed's range. 1281 01:03:20,200 --> 01:03:24,080 I not only didn't draft him I never even consider drafting him 1282 01:03:24,080 --> 01:03:25,920 at that price. I'm completely in agreement 1283 01:03:25,920 --> 01:03:28,000 here. I think the thing that Reid and 1284 01:03:28,000 --> 01:03:31,480 Watson have going for them is they both have unique skill sets 1285 01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:34,280 in a way that if you think about a traditional 3 receiver set I 1286 01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:36,760 do think Reid's going to be on the field for those rules. 1287 01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:38,920 But I I think you make a good point Sam that like he's that's 1288 01:03:38,920 --> 01:03:42,040 not 100% route rate kind of guy or even necessarily 80%. 1289 01:03:42,040 --> 01:03:45,440 He's a he's a slot guy that comes off in some of the two 1290 01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:47,800 tight end stuff. He's going to be a motion guy 1291 01:03:47,800 --> 01:03:48,600 though. He's going to get some 1292 01:03:48,600 --> 01:03:50,640 manufactured touches around the line of scrimmage. 1293 01:03:50,640 --> 01:03:53,160 That's going to help the targets per out run and some of that. 1294 01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:56,080 And he was efficient last year. But it is a profile to me that's 1295 01:03:56,080 --> 01:03:59,480 like last year was more like an 80th percentile outcome. 1296 01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:01,840 He was efficient on this role, but I don't know how the role 1297 01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:03,320 expands the way that you described it. 1298 01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:06,560 And so to be drafting him at this price to me is like it's 1299 01:04:06,560 --> 01:04:10,520 baking in too much of last year as if that was like a median and 1300 01:04:10,520 --> 01:04:13,000 there's more room to grow. It's kind of basically what you 1301 01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:15,520 just said. I do think he stays in that role 1302 01:04:15,520 --> 01:04:18,240 and I think Watson stays in his vertical role as the most 1303 01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:20,520 athletic of the three and the, you know first round draft 1304 01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:24,160 capital, all of that. So to me, I I do the tricky part 1305 01:04:24,160 --> 01:04:27,240 for me I want to be in on the cheaper bets for the reasons you 1306 01:04:27,240 --> 01:04:29,280 said. But I think Dubs and Wicks are 1307 01:04:29,280 --> 01:04:33,320 in some respects competing for routes in the three receiver 1308 01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:34,080 sets. So they're going to be 1309 01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:36,880 rotational for for you know to some respect. 1310 01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:40,120 I've taken more Dubs and Wicks. I don't think I've taken Watson 1311 01:04:40,160 --> 01:04:43,640 either because it's still a pretty decent opportunity cost. 1312 01:04:43,640 --> 01:04:46,840 I've taken Dubs and Wicks. The other note I'll add is I 1313 01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:50,560 think the market I'm pretty into the Packers, but I do think the 1314 01:04:50,560 --> 01:04:53,840 market is assuming too much around Jordan Love. 1315 01:04:53,840 --> 01:04:55,920 He wasn't perfect all season last year. 1316 01:04:55,920 --> 01:05:00,280 He was very good at times and was great in the play offs. 1317 01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:05,320 But I I do think that Matt Lafleur kind of simplified 1318 01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:07,040 things at time. I think it was a good coaching 1319 01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:10,440 job in Green Bay last year. I think he's not talked about 1320 01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:13,320 enough, along with like Sean McVeigh and and Kyle Shanahan 1321 01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:15,520 and all those guys that are a part of that group of, you know, 1322 01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:19,000 Mike McDaniel, that group of younger coaches that do a lot to 1323 01:05:19,000 --> 01:05:20,840 help their players be more successful. 1324 01:05:21,320 --> 01:05:24,320 But my point being, if the defenses can kind of come up 1325 01:05:24,320 --> 01:05:26,960 with some answers, I'm not convinced that Jordan Love's 1326 01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:32,920 skill set yet is like ready to evolve to like, you know, beyond 1327 01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:35,440 what the scheme has been able to create for him. 1328 01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:38,440 To some respects, I'm not not convinced in that. 1329 01:05:38,440 --> 01:05:42,120 I'm just not convinced. And I think people are assuming 1330 01:05:42,120 --> 01:05:44,840 that Jordan Love's going to take a huge step forward next year. 1331 01:05:45,440 --> 01:05:46,920 What do you guys think about that part of it? 1332 01:05:46,920 --> 01:05:48,320 Are you at all concerned about love? 1333 01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:55,160 I I am 0% concerned on love He. He showed up and won a road 1334 01:05:55,160 --> 01:05:57,360 playoff game. His first crack at it like I 1335 01:05:57,360 --> 01:06:01,600 just, I, I and I he just seemed like I'm not saying Jordan Love 1336 01:06:01,600 --> 01:06:05,240 is the next great quarterback like the next Rogers or far. 1337 01:06:05,240 --> 01:06:08,640 But I think he probably will settle in as like a not 1338 01:06:08,640 --> 01:06:11,880 stylistically but results wise. A Kirk Cousins style quarterback 1339 01:06:11,880 --> 01:06:14,840 where you can win a lot of regular season games maybe win 1340 01:06:14,840 --> 01:06:17,960 some fun playoff games but not necessarily the guy to take you 1341 01:06:17,960 --> 01:06:21,240 to the top of the mountain. But I I have 0 concerns about 1342 01:06:22,480 --> 01:06:25,680 his ability to feed guys for fantasy, the team wanting to 1343 01:06:25,680 --> 01:06:28,160 move on from him. Like I think for for example, I 1344 01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:31,440 think he's above the Purdy zone. Like where like if Purdy is kind 1345 01:06:31,440 --> 01:06:34,760 of middling this year, maybe gets injured, plays through it, 1346 01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:37,120 whatever. And the 49ers are not on the 1347 01:06:37,120 --> 01:06:39,200 hook for the extension. Maybe they decide not to give it 1348 01:06:39,200 --> 01:06:41,440 to him. I I think he's above that. 1349 01:06:42,040 --> 01:06:44,560 The thing I wanted to bring up. I I don't know if this is. 1350 01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:51,280 I don't know if this has gone around our space, but Dante and 1351 01:06:51,280 --> 01:06:54,440 Wicks has drawn comparisons to Devante Adams from multiple of 1352 01:06:54,440 --> 01:06:56,720 the Packers staffers. Matt Lafleur said it. 1353 01:06:56,880 --> 01:06:59,880 The wide receiver coach said it. They said, like, you know, I 1354 01:06:59,880 --> 01:07:01,880 mean exactly what you that you know, he looks like Devante 1355 01:07:01,880 --> 01:07:04,960 Adams. He's got the same work ethic. 1356 01:07:04,960 --> 01:07:08,840 He's got the same high football IQ, which is like not to say 1357 01:07:08,840 --> 01:07:11,360 that it's right. And then I think that Dante and 1358 01:07:11,360 --> 01:07:14,400 Wicks is going to be you know the next like superstar in 1359 01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:17,640 fantasy football. But I am kind of saying that in 1360 01:07:17,640 --> 01:07:22,680 the sense that you could get him at wide receiver 66 and if you 1361 01:07:22,680 --> 01:07:25,360 had to price these things out, who leads the Packers and 1362 01:07:25,360 --> 01:07:29,200 targets? I mean Wix should definitely be 1363 01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:31,240 high. Like I think Wix has like got a 1364 01:07:31,240 --> 01:07:34,800 decent chance to out target Watson this upcoming season for 1365 01:07:34,800 --> 01:07:37,880 example. Yeah, These numbers you have. 1366 01:07:37,960 --> 01:07:40,800 Yeah, go ahead. I was just gonna ask these these 1367 01:07:40,800 --> 01:07:42,360 numbers include the playoff games, right? 1368 01:07:42,360 --> 01:07:44,680 Because opposite the yeah include the playoff games 1369 01:07:44,680 --> 01:07:46,960 brought his number up a lot and the regular season. 1370 01:07:46,960 --> 01:07:48,880 His yards prior run was like 1.3. 1371 01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:52,600 Wix was much much better than him in the regular season. 1372 01:07:52,600 --> 01:07:55,000 But I. Was like giving credit for the 1373 01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:57,640 guys for the huge playoff games, which which done that. 1374 01:07:57,640 --> 01:08:00,280 So yeah, that's why these numbers might look a little 1375 01:08:00,280 --> 01:08:03,040 different. But yeah, I don't know, I I 1376 01:08:03,040 --> 01:08:04,840 don't like. I think this is one of these 1377 01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:08,320 things where like we we talk about it like sometimes we in 1378 01:08:08,320 --> 01:08:10,240 fantasy we talk about like there's this this like 1379 01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:12,720 predetermined set of outcomes that's gonna happen. 1380 01:08:12,720 --> 01:08:16,279 I think in reality this is like a wide receiver competition 1381 01:08:16,279 --> 01:08:20,080 between these guys and how they play during the season is gonna 1382 01:08:20,080 --> 01:08:23,880 determine how this shakes out. And like, good good luck trying 1383 01:08:23,880 --> 01:08:26,960 to predict that 'cause I think each of these guys have a case, 1384 01:08:26,960 --> 01:08:29,000 even dubs. He doesn't flash in some of the 1385 01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:32,359 peripherals like these guys do, but he is the one guy that kind 1386 01:08:32,359 --> 01:08:36,520 of they trust in the X wide receiver role on this team reads 1387 01:08:36,520 --> 01:08:39,760 more of a slot guy. Even Watson, his size and speed, 1388 01:08:39,760 --> 01:08:42,000 he's not really like a true X wide receiver. 1389 01:08:42,000 --> 01:08:45,760 He was used a lot in sort of motions and screens and more 1390 01:08:45,760 --> 01:08:48,760 gadgety stuff. So yeah, and I don't know, this 1391 01:08:48,760 --> 01:08:51,120 is one of these things where like I'm kind of throwing up my 1392 01:08:51,120 --> 01:08:54,000 hands at the town evaluation. I'm probably just going to be 1393 01:08:54,000 --> 01:08:56,479 skewed towards the guys who are cheaper. 1394 01:08:56,760 --> 01:08:58,640 But I think, yeah, I agree with that. 1395 01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:02,200 I I think well two things. One on on the town evaluation. 1396 01:09:02,200 --> 01:09:05,920 I think you part of why I was saying that about Dobbs is he 1397 01:09:05,920 --> 01:09:09,200 needed the playoff games to get to 1.61 point 6 is still 1398 01:09:09,200 --> 01:09:12,399 meaningfully lower than 1.9. They ran different amounts of 1399 01:09:12,399 --> 01:09:14,520 route volume. It is a different conversation. 1400 01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:18,680 But Dobbs had a 1.36 yards per out run his rookie year and then 1401 01:09:18,680 --> 01:09:21,359 a 1.32 in the regular season the second year. 1402 01:09:21,399 --> 01:09:24,880 He really is but thinking you have to put a lot on to what he 1403 01:09:24,880 --> 01:09:26,560 did in the playoffs in the second season. 1404 01:09:26,880 --> 01:09:29,720 Otherwise you could say that he's been pretty unproductive 1405 01:09:29,720 --> 01:09:33,520 through two years. Meanwhile, Dante and Wicks was a 1406 01:09:33,720 --> 01:09:36,240 actually a two point O yards per out run in the regular season. 1407 01:09:36,240 --> 01:09:39,359 He didn't do as much in the playoff game, so he falls to 1.9 1408 01:09:39,359 --> 01:09:43,000 on this chart, but was really efficient in the one year that 1409 01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:45,960 we saw him. I think there's a little bit of 1410 01:09:45,960 --> 01:09:49,880 a like an argument that that we've seen enough Dobbs to be a 1411 01:09:49,880 --> 01:09:52,439 little bit concerned about his actual upside. 1412 01:09:52,960 --> 01:09:55,440 Particularly I'm not trying to take out the playoff game, but 1413 01:09:55,440 --> 01:09:57,760 particularly when you look at that rate, that rookie season 1414 01:09:57,960 --> 01:10:00,080 not being nearly as good as Wicks rookie season. 1415 01:10:01,520 --> 01:10:03,880 But the second thing I would say is, to your point, I think there 1416 01:10:03,880 --> 01:10:05,480 is going to be some rotation. I think there's going to be some 1417 01:10:05,480 --> 01:10:06,840 uncertainty. I do think Dobbs is still going 1418 01:10:06,840 --> 01:10:10,440 to play and if you guys like Love, I think I mean these are 1419 01:10:10,440 --> 01:10:13,760 great prices because I think when the guys do play there's 1420 01:10:13,760 --> 01:10:17,800 going to be spike weeks and this is a place in the draft 1421 01:10:17,800 --> 01:10:22,000 especially where Wicks is going where it's hard to get receivers 1422 01:10:22,000 --> 01:10:26,000 that I feel have 20 point like spike week potential and but for 1423 01:10:26,000 --> 01:10:27,760 Dobbs too that's why I've taken both of them. 1424 01:10:27,760 --> 01:10:30,400 It's like if I need a wide receiver 5 or a wide receiver 1425 01:10:30,400 --> 01:10:33,640 6IN a draft where I you know maybe I'm not super super heavy 1426 01:10:33,640 --> 01:10:36,840 at wide receiver early. These are guys at a passing game 1427 01:10:36,840 --> 01:10:39,920 that was really efficient last year that stays efficient. 1428 01:10:40,600 --> 01:10:43,080 I don't I don't feel like Melton's going to be super 1429 01:10:43,080 --> 01:10:45,000 involved or the additional guys who are going to be super 1430 01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:46,000 involved. The tight ends weren't 1431 01:10:46,000 --> 01:10:47,720 necessarily great on a per out basis. 1432 01:10:48,080 --> 01:10:50,200 I do kind of think it's these first four guys that are gonna 1433 01:10:50,200 --> 01:10:51,960 have most of the production for Jordan Love. 1434 01:10:52,200 --> 01:10:55,120 It's gonna be madding to figure out who the guy is. 1435 01:10:55,400 --> 01:10:59,720 But on the cheaper end, the they're gonna profile as you 1436 01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:02,120 know they're gonna they're gonna be worth those picks basically, 1437 01:11:02,120 --> 01:11:03,320 right? They're gonna profile as having 1438 01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:04,920 enough spike weeks. They're not gonna be consistent, 1439 01:11:05,120 --> 01:11:07,720 but enough spike weeks to be worth that. 1440 01:11:08,360 --> 01:11:11,720 So I like to Davis's point about having as much Wicks as he has. 1441 01:11:11,720 --> 01:11:13,320 I think that's really sharp at this stage. 1442 01:11:14,840 --> 01:11:19,720 My only so on the rotational thing, my only slight pushback 1443 01:11:19,720 --> 01:11:21,520 on like this, you know, Mountain. 1444 01:11:21,520 --> 01:11:23,240 I think it's going to be these top four guys. 1445 01:11:23,240 --> 01:11:25,520 It's like, here's the frustrating thing with the 1446 01:11:25,520 --> 01:11:28,800 Packers last year is when Christian Watson was out with 1447 01:11:28,800 --> 01:11:31,960 injury or when one of these guys without was out with injury. 1448 01:11:32,160 --> 01:11:36,120 You didn't always see the huge spike in routes for Reid or 1449 01:11:36,120 --> 01:11:39,880 Dobbs or the other guys. They would bring in Malik Heath 1450 01:11:40,040 --> 01:11:45,080 for 30 percent routes, a game that bring in Samara to Ray for 1451 01:11:45,200 --> 01:11:48,320 30% routes a game. So I do think there is like some 1452 01:11:48,320 --> 01:11:52,120 like philosophical thing with Lafleur here a little bit. 1453 01:11:52,480 --> 01:11:56,560 The little bit is that Corrine hated was committed to the bit. 1454 01:11:57,360 --> 01:11:59,320 So last year they went into the season with. 1455 01:11:59,320 --> 01:12:02,200 I remember this was true even going into the training camp 1456 01:12:02,200 --> 01:12:03,960 when they had 11 receivers on the roster. 1457 01:12:04,240 --> 01:12:07,680 Every single receiver on the roster was from the 2022 or 2023 1458 01:12:07,680 --> 01:12:10,600 draft class, a first year or second year player that can. 1459 01:12:10,720 --> 01:12:12,440 That can explain some of that, right? 1460 01:12:12,440 --> 01:12:15,440 Like they didn't necessarily want to lean on these guys more 1461 01:12:15,440 --> 01:12:17,080 than they had to. I think that's part of why you 1462 01:12:17,080 --> 01:12:20,560 can point at Dobbs being the one you know in the playoff that got 1463 01:12:20,560 --> 01:12:22,040 the heavy route rate. It's like they needed 1464 01:12:22,240 --> 01:12:24,440 consistency that they maybe didn't think they had from the 1465 01:12:24,440 --> 01:12:27,480 rookies. Watson wasn't fully healthy, but 1466 01:12:27,640 --> 01:12:30,400 like, he was this elder statesman in this passing game, 1467 01:12:30,400 --> 01:12:34,640 Romeo Dobbs by that point. I think that doesn't necessarily 1468 01:12:34,640 --> 01:12:36,320 mean it'll be like that going forward. 1469 01:12:36,320 --> 01:12:38,160 Maybe it will to an extent in 2024. 1470 01:12:38,400 --> 01:12:41,600 I would actually predict in 2025 and beyond they'll have their 1471 01:12:41,600 --> 01:12:43,080 guys. They're they're trying to figure 1472 01:12:43,080 --> 01:12:45,200 out who those guys are. That's kind of been their team 1473 01:12:45,200 --> 01:12:46,720 building. I agree. 1474 01:12:46,880 --> 01:12:49,880 I think they just like they they kind of hit on like, again, like 1475 01:12:49,880 --> 01:12:51,680 Bow Mountain. It's like a little bit of like a 1476 01:12:51,880 --> 01:12:54,320 a bit to put his yards per hour on targets per hour on here 1477 01:12:54,320 --> 01:12:56,120 'cause. It was such a low round volume. 1478 01:12:57,000 --> 01:12:59,800 They hit on a bunch of guys, they hit on two tight ends. 1479 01:12:59,800 --> 01:13:01,400 They're the youngest team in the NFL. 1480 01:13:01,400 --> 01:13:03,400 All these dudes we just talked about including their 1481 01:13:03,400 --> 01:13:07,840 quarterback are 24 and under. Like they can they can kind of 1482 01:13:07,840 --> 01:13:11,120 just figure it out. I'm making a talent based bet on 1483 01:13:11,200 --> 01:13:13,440 Wix. I think Wix is pretty good. 1484 01:13:13,560 --> 01:13:18,440 Is is really what I'm saying? The chat loves our our our 1485 01:13:18,440 --> 01:13:20,040 pacing. Right now, yeah. 1486 01:13:20,040 --> 01:13:21,520 We've gotten through what, 6 players? 1487 01:13:22,080 --> 01:13:24,680 Cat will be back from paternity leave by the time this stream 1488 01:13:24,680 --> 01:13:27,760 ends. This I don't know. 1489 01:13:27,760 --> 01:13:30,160 We we got one player left and we're an hour and 10 in. 1490 01:13:30,160 --> 01:13:32,800 This might be a record for shortest ADP chasing show. 1491 01:13:32,800 --> 01:13:36,320 So we'll hit on Amari Cooper here. 1492 01:13:36,320 --> 01:13:39,640 Then I got to get out of here. He's down three spots. 1493 01:13:39,800 --> 01:13:43,120 I don't have a ton to say here. Besides, just like, I think this 1494 01:13:43,120 --> 01:13:45,960 is just, this is boredom too. We talked about like boredom 1495 01:13:45,960 --> 01:13:50,040 driving Marvin Harrison and Leak neighbors up like man Amari 1496 01:13:50,040 --> 01:13:52,880 Cooper. Just he gets 15 PPR points like 1497 01:13:52,880 --> 01:13:54,480 every single season of his career. 1498 01:13:54,720 --> 01:13:57,720 Mixes in a couple big spike weeks every season. 1499 01:13:58,440 --> 01:14:01,400 He's boring, but I feel like he's just he's consistently just 1500 01:14:01,880 --> 01:14:05,200 a win at ADPI. Don't know, maybe, maybe not a 1501 01:14:05,200 --> 01:14:08,920 win, but he's someone like, I don't have a hot take on, but I 1502 01:14:08,920 --> 01:14:10,640 don't see any reason to like, fade him. 1503 01:14:10,640 --> 01:14:14,440 He showed no signs of decline. He had the best season of his 1504 01:14:14,440 --> 01:14:16,080 career. He had the best yards per out 1505 01:14:16,080 --> 01:14:18,520 run of his career last year. He was incredible, his best 1506 01:14:18,520 --> 01:14:22,200 targets per out run of his career, very efficient. 1507 01:14:22,200 --> 01:14:24,920 It wasn't just that he didn't have signs at a client, I mean 1508 01:14:24,920 --> 01:14:29,960 he was the best weighted targets per out run in my in my database 1509 01:14:29,960 --> 01:14:32,320 here as well 'cause he had a high A .14 point, 1A dot. 1510 01:14:32,320 --> 01:14:35,480 It was the highest eight out of his career, earning volume at a 1511 01:14:35,480 --> 01:14:37,840 higher depth. Also one of his highest 1512 01:14:37,840 --> 01:14:40,960 efficiency seasons. He was really strong last year 1513 01:14:40,960 --> 01:14:42,640 in all the peripherals. Part of that's because his one 1514 01:14:42,640 --> 01:14:44,720 blow up game was so massive, but. 1515 01:14:46,440 --> 01:14:48,000 Yeah, maybe. I think the downside that like 1516 01:14:48,040 --> 01:14:50,520 all these big games were with Joe Flacco and not Deshaun 1517 01:14:50,520 --> 01:14:52,480 Watson. It is a little bit, I think. 1518 01:14:52,480 --> 01:14:56,040 I mean, that's my concern. So it is because you look at 1519 01:14:56,040 --> 01:15:01,760 their backup quarter situation, it's not great and well, no, I 1520 01:15:01,760 --> 01:15:05,680 take it back, it is great because Deshaun Watson, Deshaun 1521 01:15:05,680 --> 01:15:08,560 Watson did a press conference yesterday and basically 1522 01:15:08,560 --> 01:15:11,440 intimated he has no idea when he will be healthy enough to play 1523 01:15:11,440 --> 01:15:14,480 football again. Like he doesn't like, he's like 1524 01:15:14,520 --> 01:15:16,720 I'm not, he's not throwing, he's not doing anything. 1525 01:15:16,880 --> 01:15:18,840 I mean, we're six months away from the start of the season, 1526 01:15:18,840 --> 01:15:20,280 so. Oh my God. 1527 01:15:20,600 --> 01:15:23,320 But. Is he good enough for this year? 1528 01:15:23,960 --> 01:15:26,720 No, he can't retire. He can't retire because then 1529 01:15:26,720 --> 01:15:29,160 he'd give this money up. So he has to just he has to just 1530 01:15:29,280 --> 01:15:31,680 be on the IR, right? He's just gonna play like 8 1531 01:15:31,680 --> 01:15:34,160 games a season for the next three years and then retire. 1532 01:15:34,280 --> 01:15:36,640 He has no interest in playing football anymore. 1533 01:15:36,640 --> 01:15:38,280 I. Mean I think he's done. 1534 01:15:38,360 --> 01:15:40,520 He doesn't like being in the he's ever said. 1535 01:15:40,520 --> 01:15:42,080 Checked out. Turned against him. 1536 01:15:42,120 --> 01:15:45,640 Yeah, I mean it's it's crazy. I'm not, this is not like a pat 1537 01:15:45,640 --> 01:15:48,360 in the back, but I think a lot of people were assuming he would 1538 01:15:48,360 --> 01:15:51,080 come back from his whole thing and be totally fine. 1539 01:15:51,080 --> 01:15:53,680 And I remember at the time comparing it to Tiger Woods, I 1540 01:15:53,680 --> 01:15:55,720 was like, this is not something we just compared to other 1541 01:15:55,760 --> 01:15:58,680 football players. It's it's such a different thing 1542 01:15:58,680 --> 01:16:00,840 to go from everybody loves me to now everybody hates you. 1543 01:16:00,840 --> 01:16:03,200 Remember when Tiger Woods came back and everyone on the was 1544 01:16:03,200 --> 01:16:06,160 booing him after every shot as opposed to like yelling in his 1545 01:16:06,160 --> 01:16:08,640 favor after every shot? And that quickly went back to 1546 01:16:08,640 --> 01:16:12,360 people being on Tiger's side. But for a stretch, the whole 1547 01:16:12,560 --> 01:16:15,040 like, course when he was out golfing was against him. 1548 01:16:15,440 --> 01:16:17,640 And that's what Deshaun Watson's gotten like nobody. 1549 01:16:17,960 --> 01:16:20,360 He used to be everybody's like, you think about like the staff 1550 01:16:20,360 --> 01:16:21,320 in the training room and everything. 1551 01:16:21,320 --> 01:16:22,920 I'm sure he was everybody's favorite guy. 1552 01:16:22,920 --> 01:16:25,640 He walked in, you know, everybody's like saying hi to 1553 01:16:25,640 --> 01:16:27,280 him when he's walking through the tunnel and everything. 1554 01:16:27,280 --> 01:16:28,760 The fans are absolutely loving him. 1555 01:16:29,080 --> 01:16:31,360 And now it's like nobody, probably. 1556 01:16:31,360 --> 01:16:33,640 I would assume, although all through the different things 1557 01:16:33,640 --> 01:16:35,560 that he does and including getting booed in games and 1558 01:16:35,560 --> 01:16:39,160 stuff, that he has a completely different relationship with 1559 01:16:39,160 --> 01:16:40,280 playing football. Now. 1560 01:16:41,160 --> 01:16:42,960 I'm not trying to make him into a sympathetic figure, but I 1561 01:16:42,960 --> 01:16:44,800 wouldn't surprise me if he just doesn't want to play football 1562 01:16:44,800 --> 01:16:47,800 anymore, you know? Yeah, here's what I'm doing. 1563 01:16:47,800 --> 01:16:50,320 If I'm the Browns, this is never gonna this is very unlikely to 1564 01:16:50,320 --> 01:16:52,640 happen because of how NFL owners think. 1565 01:16:52,640 --> 01:16:56,080 But if Deshaun sucks again this year, I'm doing the Russell 1566 01:16:56,080 --> 01:16:57,920 Wilson thing. I'm I'm cutting him. 1567 01:16:57,920 --> 01:16:59,880 I'm eating the 150 million in dead. 1568 01:17:00,200 --> 01:17:01,720 People talk about dead cap a lot. 1569 01:17:01,720 --> 01:17:04,400 But what it really is is is sunk cost fallacy. 1570 01:17:04,400 --> 01:17:06,840 Like Deshaun Watson, he might have all that dead cap. 1571 01:17:07,120 --> 01:17:09,440 He's not getting better if he sucks again. 1572 01:17:09,440 --> 01:17:13,360 If he sucks again, take the big dead cap hit, have a complete 1573 01:17:13,360 --> 01:17:16,200 rebuilding year, and then the. Problem is, they all get fired. 1574 01:17:16,880 --> 01:17:19,080 They all get fired. Everyone gets fired. 1575 01:17:19,680 --> 01:17:22,080 That's the problem is, but I I don't know like if. 1576 01:17:22,200 --> 01:17:24,040 I'm that's. Probably the right decision, but 1577 01:17:24,040 --> 01:17:26,440 they won't, I think. Stefanski is a really good 1578 01:17:26,440 --> 01:17:28,040 coach. He got them to the playoffs 1579 01:17:28,040 --> 01:17:31,880 with, you know, Joe Flacco and the corpse of Deshaun Watson so 1580 01:17:32,040 --> 01:17:34,600 well, if I found them, this is this is not what is gonna 1581 01:17:34,600 --> 01:17:35,520 happen. But that's what I'm doing. 1582 01:17:35,520 --> 01:17:38,680 I'm keeping Stefanski, cutting Watson, getting the dead cap, 1583 01:17:38,760 --> 01:17:40,320 start this thing over. That's what I'd do. 1584 01:17:40,720 --> 01:17:43,240 Off the top of your head, what do you think the Browns record 1585 01:17:43,240 --> 01:17:45,480 was in games Watson started last year? 1586 01:17:46,880 --> 01:17:50,760 They were, like, weirdly good. They were five and one, so they 1587 01:17:51,080 --> 01:17:52,640 you, you. You're not cutting, you're not 1588 01:17:52,640 --> 01:17:55,200 cutting your five, you're not cutting A10. 1589 01:17:55,200 --> 01:17:57,360 Win quarterback. It's just not gonna happen. 1590 01:17:57,400 --> 01:18:00,880 But The thing is, if if I'm saying like if the defense 1591 01:18:00,880 --> 01:18:04,280 regresses, like the defense was playing so, so well for those 1592 01:18:04,320 --> 01:18:05,280 games, that's the. Thing. 1593 01:18:05,280 --> 01:18:07,960 We all know that, yeah. It could get real ugly if the 1594 01:18:07,960 --> 01:18:11,680 defense regresses. That was like a five and one 1595 01:18:11,680 --> 01:18:14,120 where every week it was like, well, they're winning in spite 1596 01:18:14,120 --> 01:18:16,880 of their quarterback. Yeah, I mean he he played, he 1597 01:18:16,880 --> 01:18:19,360 played like, he played like absolute ass. 1598 01:18:19,360 --> 01:18:20,240 I mean his. His. 1599 01:18:20,240 --> 01:18:21,640 Yeah, they beat the Ravens, right? 1600 01:18:21,640 --> 01:18:23,680 That game where he got hurt, I think, yeah. 1601 01:18:23,840 --> 01:18:27,440 And then against the Colts, he went one for one for five with 1602 01:18:27,440 --> 01:18:29,680 an interception and they won 3938. 1603 01:18:29,680 --> 01:18:31,280 I don't remember this game, but he didn't. 1604 01:18:31,280 --> 01:18:33,320 That's the one. He got hurt, I think. 1605 01:18:34,480 --> 01:18:38,160 OK, PJ Walker came in and led him to a one point victory over 1606 01:18:38,160 --> 01:18:39,640 the Colts and Heisman. Affair. 1607 01:18:41,120 --> 01:18:43,840 Wow, yeah. So that's why I don't take Amari 1608 01:18:43,840 --> 01:18:46,360 Cooper is because I'm not stacking him and I want a 1609 01:18:46,360 --> 01:18:48,320 stacking. I I just want to leave stacking 1610 01:18:48,320 --> 01:18:50,520 partners open. And so if I take Jaden Reed 1611 01:18:50,520 --> 01:18:53,760 right there, if I take Terry Mclaurin right there, I've got a 1612 01:18:53,760 --> 01:18:56,480 stacking partner. If I take Amari Cooper, I don't 1613 01:18:56,480 --> 01:18:58,760 have a I'm just not taking Deshaun Watson. 1614 01:18:59,160 --> 01:19:00,960 This is crazy. I got a stat for you guys. 1615 01:19:00,960 --> 01:19:04,160 If you left that Baltimore game two, then he won five games. 1616 01:19:04,200 --> 01:19:07,360 He left two of them and the other three the opponent scored 1617 01:19:07,360 --> 01:19:11,760 three points or less. It's really. 1618 01:19:11,880 --> 01:19:13,880 Ridiculous. Yeah man. 1619 01:19:14,000 --> 01:19:16,880 I just. So I went to the Rams game in 1620 01:19:16,880 --> 01:19:19,760 person, the Rams Browns game. This was the first Joe Flacco 1621 01:19:19,760 --> 01:19:23,040 game in person. And I went with my girlfriend 1622 01:19:23,040 --> 01:19:25,520 and her parents and I was trying to explain to them Joe Flacco 1623 01:19:25,520 --> 01:19:27,880 was like, he hasn't really been in the league for three years. 1624 01:19:27,880 --> 01:19:29,800 Like, he just came off this couch for this game. 1625 01:19:30,320 --> 01:19:31,320 Like, they're like, is he going to be good? 1626 01:19:31,320 --> 01:19:32,520 I'm like, no, he's going to be terrible. 1627 01:19:32,720 --> 01:19:35,840 Just instantly he's just Hawking the ball down field, just like 1628 01:19:36,040 --> 01:19:39,080 making the offense look so good. I think he threw for like 300 1629 01:19:39,080 --> 01:19:40,560 yards in that game. They lost. 1630 01:19:40,840 --> 01:19:43,400 But to me that was just such a big thing of, like, you take 1631 01:19:43,400 --> 01:19:46,320 Deshaun Watson out and put any confident quarterback in and 1632 01:19:46,320 --> 01:19:48,480 this offense is, like, immediately fun. 1633 01:19:48,840 --> 01:19:51,120 It just showed to me Like even though the record was good with 1634 01:19:51,120 --> 01:19:54,480 Watson, he was dragging them down big, big. 1635 01:19:54,960 --> 01:19:58,120 The Watson thing or the Flacco thing is so interesting because 1636 01:19:58,120 --> 01:20:01,840 it just showed that. To be as quarterback successful 1637 01:20:01,840 --> 01:20:04,720 in the NFL right now, all you need to do is not take sacks and 1638 01:20:04,720 --> 01:20:07,280 throw the ball deep. And everyone is too coward to 1639 01:20:07,280 --> 01:20:10,280 throw the ball deep. No team will do it and Flacco's 1640 01:20:10,280 --> 01:20:12,800 like, I've been doing this since I was 10 years old, bro. 1641 01:20:12,800 --> 01:20:15,360 I'm 47. I'm just going to throw the ball 1642 01:20:15,360 --> 01:20:21,040 high and I go make a play. Yeah, the Flacco thing last year 1643 01:20:21,120 --> 01:20:24,400 was just ridiculous. But anyways, that'll that's all 1644 01:20:24,400 --> 01:20:29,000 I have for ADP chasing today. The final pre draft ADP chasing. 1645 01:20:29,000 --> 01:20:33,480 It'll be super interesting in about 10 days now or is it? 1646 01:20:33,640 --> 01:20:36,560 I guess it's yeah eight days before the NFL draft. 1647 01:20:37,280 --> 01:20:40,840 We'll get a ton of new information on these guys 1648 01:20:40,840 --> 01:20:47,440 landing spots and everything. So yeah, anything you guys want 1649 01:20:47,680 --> 01:20:51,440 to plug over the next week besides the the ship chasing 1650 01:20:51,440 --> 01:20:53,680 draft stream which will be starting on Thursday I think 1651 01:20:53,680 --> 01:20:57,320 around the draft time? You got to. 1652 01:20:57,400 --> 01:21:02,080 Do a show with with BIME 4. No, just the the draft streams, 1653 01:21:02,080 --> 01:21:07,400 the big one. Jeez. 1654 01:21:08,320 --> 01:21:10,880 One thing in the back of my mind was that earlier we moved on 1655 01:21:10,880 --> 01:21:13,360 from the Kincaid thing in the chat was asking me about my 1656 01:21:13,360 --> 01:21:14,880 Andrews thing. I just wanted to add a little 1657 01:21:14,880 --> 01:21:18,000 note that I wasn't trying to say that I would take Kincaid way 1658 01:21:18,000 --> 01:21:20,480 ahead of Andrews. I was more saying that the fact 1659 01:21:20,480 --> 01:21:24,080 that their 80 PS are close is kind of like partially Andrews 1660 01:21:24,080 --> 01:21:27,040 maybe profile being a little bit weaker as well. 1661 01:21:27,040 --> 01:21:29,480 So I just wanted to throw that note because a couple people 1662 01:21:29,480 --> 01:21:31,240 seemed a little confused by the way I framed that. 1663 01:21:32,840 --> 01:21:34,480 Got you. Cool guys. 1664 01:21:34,480 --> 01:21:39,200 Well, we'll be back ADP chasing sometime post draft. 1665 01:21:39,320 --> 01:21:43,360 And besides that everybody enjoy your Wednesday. 1666 01:21:43,960 --> 01:21:53,000 Peace out. They left us all live and Pete 1667 01:21:53,000 --> 01:21:54,520 was the one running it and I can't. 1668 01:21:54,960 --> 01:21:56,760 I don't think I could end the live show. 1669 01:21:56,760 --> 01:21:57,720 We got to get Pete in here.