We're through 12 weeks of the NFL season and we've got the
Thanksgiving slates ahead of us, so we'll do a deep dive into all
of the players that you might not normally be thinking about
as we get in the weeds on these Thanksgiving slates.
This is stat chasing. Pat Fryer, Helmo Anita.
Hand Job. Fix your sight, Jamar.
Alpha. Play Chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point. You're right.
Good evening, Draco. How are you doing tonight?
I'm doing good, doing good. I'm thankful, thankful for
football and that we have it on on Thanksgiving.
So I I guess guess that's how I'm feeling.
I I too am thankful. I'm looking forward to a full
day of lots and lots of DFS. We've got the three Showdown
slates, which are probably, yeah, that's the format.
Then we have the Thanksgiving short three-game slate.
So that is always a really fun one.
Kind of shares some principles with Showdown because you do get
into duplication stuff with a slate that short where, where
you can't end up with duplicated line UPS where it's pretty hard
and and classic typically. So I think tonight we'll we'll
probably have a slightly different show than we typically
do. We're we're probably going to
focus more on some of the fringier players that you
normally would not be playing in weekly contests really
specifically with the framing of thinking through the
Thanksgiving slate of games. So with that, I think we should
go ahead and get into the quarterback chart.
Yeah, be helpful if I added to the stage, wouldn't it?
Yeah, I mean, this is my third year and doing a start chasing
and I really like start chasing and but in in week 13 and I'm
I'm thankful that Thanksgiving goes a reason to change it up a
little bit. Yeah, yeah, definitely it.
I mean, I feel like we were kind of getting to the point where it
felt like every week is like, all right, we've kind of already
talked about a lot of these situations.
And yes, there are some new situations that emerge where,
you know, we end up talking about those.
But it it just feels like there's a lot of the same and
much less new than we get into the season.
So it'll be it'll be refreshing. One thing that I don't think
will be refreshing for our listeners is we need to talk
about the viability of Cooper Rush and Tommy DeVito and or
Drew Lock. You'll notice that Tommy DeVito
is not on the chart because we don't know if he's even gonna
play. He he very well could be injured
and out. So I didn't know if we should be
listening Tommy DeVito or listening Drew Lock.
Definitely a lot of ambiguity there, but let's start with
Cooper Rush. He's a pretty cheap quarterback
on the Thanksgiving slate. Draco, what are your thoughts
about playing Cooper Rush? So, and Thanksgiving slate
specifically. So, so that's, that's a tree
gamer. So you have 6 quarterbacks in
total. And I guess that the thing that
that stands out to me is that for for such a short slate and
the people are going to laugh about the the veto versus Cooper
rush matchup, but I think we actually do have some pretty
strong options. Like Jared Goff is efficient,
Chu Tuga Valo is efficient. We've talked many times about
how strong and Jordan Love is and GPPS, I can imagine him
being strong. On the ownership front, we've
got Caleb Williams, who kind of impressed over the weekend.
And my kind of sense is that you don't really have to play those
guys. I, I, I, I think they're
probably more interesting in, in like a showdown context, which
I'm, I'm less knowledgeable about, but I, I think more about
them being like probably on their own and, and showdown.
But it feels really hard for me to to get in on those guys when,
when you have some good QB plays, like just if, if, if you
if you let me rattle off the the jersey jars for 10th.
So Jared Goff is 9.0 and Chua took about a low of 7.9, Jordan
low of 7.5 and then Kale Williams a 6.3.
But I'm actually I'm curious what and I'm going to look that
up, what his has been in the last couple of games, whereas
the other guys are are much more in the in the weaker range.
Yeah, I mean, I would it's so just looking at the pricing for
quarterbacks, Tommy DeVito and Cooper Rush are 4500 and 4800
respectively on the Thanksgiving three-game slate over on
DraftKings. And then the most expensive
quarterback is Goff at 6500. So you can save $2000 if you go
all the way down to Tommy DeVito, which is not
significant. Right.
That that seems like a tight, like a tight range of pricing,
like most expensive, the least expensive starting QB only a
range of 2000 and then actually a pretty big gulf in terms of
quality. Yeah.
I mean, really the I think what it's going to come down to is
what the ownership ends up being on Tommy DeVito and Cooper Rush,
because I don't I don't really think that, you know, if they're
coming in super under owned, which they they certainly could,
you know, like you're saying, I I don't think people are going
to be terribly excited to play them.
So if they do come in really under owned, I think that's a
pretty good spot. We don't, you know, we don't
have projections out yet, so we can't can't say like how far
apart Goff is going to be compared to those guys.
I guess that Cooper Rush and Tommy DeVito probably come in
around like anywhere between 13 to 15 fantasy points for their
projection and you're. Here's the other thing, Kayla
Williams is 5300. So the $800 difference between
Kayla Williams and unlike Cooper Rush, but I, I could, I could
almost see it being like super heavy on Kelly Williams and and
then also Jordan Love, who's $200 cheaper than Jared Goff and
has that kind of GPP appeal. Yeah, I, I mean, I definitely
think that's what the field is going to want to do as well.
I I'm thinking that we're going to have Cooper Rush and Tommy
DeVito end up being pretty good spots.
You know, you do get them right now.
There's there's the two Dome games.
So really the only, the only non Dome game is Miami Green Bay.
And I haven't I haven't checked to see what the weather
situation is there, but you do benefit from the other two games
being in a Dome. I just think that if you're
gonna end up with a super low owned game, and it's not like
the Dallas defense or the Giants defense have been particularly
good. Dallas defense with a little bit
of a better showing as they're getting healthier against the
commanders this past week. But I mean, Cooper Rush is
getting significant like he he's getting volume, you know, So
I'm, I'm just wondering like. What's funny about Cooper Rush
is that his efficiency actually isn't that much worse than than
Dak Prescott's was. So he's at 5.4, just two yards
per tenths, where Dak Prescott was at just 6.4, which is pretty
funny. Yeah, I mean, not not the best
season for Dak Prescott or the Cowboys at large, but I mean, if
you look at Cooper Rush's last two games, the games where he he
you know, or throw, throwing Philly out more or less.
But so if you look at the last two, he had 61 attempts in Week
11, then he gets 34 attempts in Week 12.
So the, I mean, 61 attempts, like I don't think you're going
to get that very often. They were trailing, you know,
the whole game there. And then against Washington it
was much closer. So you don't you don't get quite
as high. But I it's just like to me, it's
not a foregone conclusion that they won't just end up going out
there and passing. I really do think it probably
depends on the giants pushing them though.
But again, if you're gonna get these this whole game
environment to kind of so. The the the total on that game
is 38 1/2 and and that's it. The Giants, Cowboys and the the
Bears in line is 48 1/2, and then Dolphins and Packers it's
47 1/2. Yeah, I mean, I that, that
certainly makes sense. I just when you, when you have
like these really small slates, if it, if it comes in where
you're going to get like, you know, sub 10% ownership on these
quarterbacks, that's pretty hard when there's only only 6
quarterbacks on the slate, right?
So I don't know that's. So they're, they're kind of I, I
guess the base, the base rate ownership on the quarterbacks is
like 6 quarterbacks. I imagine there it's, it's,
they'd all be 16.7. And so I mean, somebody like
maybe Chua goes way over, but somebody like that where maybe
you're getting about 12% or something like that seems more
interesting to me down here. Those guys are 5 for example.
Yeah, I mean, I I think if anyone goes way over, it's
likely going to be Caleb Williams just because he like
you said, he's not that far price removed.
He's only he's 800 from Tommy DeVito, 500 up from Cooper Rush.
He should project better than both of them and he's going to
be in probably like the the game script where people can tell
themselves, you know, the the most fun story.
And if you look at where Caleb's out on the chart like he has, he
has been improving over the last couple weeks.
He's almost up to, you know, the average for expected fantasy
points from passing. He has been more efficient these
last couple weeks as well, but his season long efficiency is
kind of holding him back. Here, Yeah, so sin Sam since in
the last two weeks he's at 7.5 yards per attempt adjusted yards
per 10th and then 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt.
He had 320 air yards in the last game.
So good, so good volume. And then he he he he definitely
made some wild shows. The other the other thing I want
to ask you, are you playing? I need the, I need the the the
underdog. I am not.
I don't do anything That's under 12 people on underdog, under 12
drafters. OK.
So do you do?
I guess the other thing that strikes me, and this is
something I kind of discovered playing when I was playing those
kind of shorter slates, is that it's almost like a last man out
thing at a quarterback where you just try and put off taking a
quarterback as long as you possibly can.
And I imagine that that becomes even more rare, even more kind
of pronounced in in this where where there's actually 66
options. Yeah, in general, I would.
I would think that's probably the way to attack this slate.
You really don't want to give up the difference in projection
from some of the premium skill position pieces compared to, you
know, the the difference in projection from quarterback is
likely just going to be a lot smaller than the difference in
having to go from say like a David Montgomery, assuming that
he's active down to like an Emmanuel Wilson or something,
which I I believe is there Emmanuel Wilson injury as well,
I want to say. And.
So looking at RotoWire, I don't think so.
OK, I just saw in the in the game I saw that they got 10
snaps for Chris Brooks, which seemed like a lot to me.
Emmanuel Wilson only with 11 4/4 attempts for Chris Brooks too.
We can we can save this for the running back charts, but.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So actually, I think I think
we're good to move, to move on from this chart.
Yeah, let's let's hit to running backs.
And then I'll, I'll zoom out here.
And so I had it, I, I had my running back chart kind of
filtered down to, to just the guys playing on the Thanksgiving
sites. So I guess the big the big
notable thing is that at least as far as the last game went,
there's no there's no you have to get all the way down to a
Chan or Josh Jacobs to get through to the true bell cows
here. And so there's not going to be
any kind of volume kings. It's kind of efficiency like
Josh Jacobs. He he he he excels in the run
through mother fuckers face and and he's been playing well.
So he's he's probably, I don't know him a Chan are probably
like the the favorite picks, the the top expected picks.
And then the other, the other piece that that's interesting is
so Tyron Tracy appeared to get benched or not benched.
I I think benched is probably the wrong way to put it And but
yeah, yeah, actually you know what benched where he was not on
the field for 62% of the snaps. Yeah, I'm.
I'm not sure why that was. I don't know if he.
I think he had like some fumbles and he had, he had the big
fumble last week and they asked like, hey, are are you, are you
going to limp this guy? And then, and then he had he had
another fumble. Got it.
So I mean, that makes singletary pretty interesting to me.
Then you get Singletary against a bad Cowboys run defense and
and we know, I mean, we know that Singletary can consolidate
a lot of work, so. So I guess the problem is that
it it, it became a true like committee where Eric Ray played
a bunch as well. God.
So I, I don't know, I don't think that's like ground
breaking or anything, but that, that, that that's something
where so if, if I, if I just quote in, in kind of useful in
useful snaps. So that's Russia attempts plus
routes. These three guys, they combine
for 70% of snaps and I I think the rest is, is blocking.
But 28% for Tyrone Tracy, 23% for Devon Singletary, 18% for
Eric Gray. That that just does kind of
strike me as as like, I guess the thing about Tracy still had
like a 12.8 expected points. Yeah, I'm, I'm looking at it
here and it it looks, I mean, Tracy still got the majority of
the carries. He got, you know, 99 rush
attempts here, only one for Eric Gray, only two for Devin
Singletary. So I, I wonder if it is really
just like a, you know, one game type of thing where you know, it
was only, hey, we're going to punish you for fumbling, but
you're still going to be the lead guy.
Because it doesn't appear that they have a ton of confidence in
Devin Singletary or Eric Gray to then take on a big workload if
they're benching Tyrone Tracy, just based on what we saw last.
Game, right? Most of the work that he lost
was kind of was route running, which is kind of interesting,
which. It might, I mean, it might have
been, you know, partially that they were down so much in the
game. So it was like there weren't
lots of carries to be had it. It was mostly just.
Right, right. And and they, I, I guess they
didn't want, they, they, they didn't want to lean on him for
the, for the receiving work. Yeah, that is interesting.
Yeah, so we we certainly have some added ambiguity to the the
Giants backfield that we normally wouldn't have the the
Packers backfield. Also with a little ambiguity in
the second guy between either Emmanuel Wilson or Chris Brooks,
both of you know, they both got snaps, both got attempts, Chris
Brooks with four carries, so. So the, the only thing about the
the only thing I wonder about the the Green Bay kind of split
is so they they did go up quite a bit or not a bit.
They had the game in hand and for a lot of the snaps.
And then I do wonder if that's when they started like working
in the other rare like Chris Brookson, etcetera.
Yeah, the one, the one that I actually think is probably the
most actionable out of the entire slate is Jalen Wright.
Most are only saw two attempts and Jalen Wright got up to seven
again. They were really ahead against
the Patriots, right? They were blowing them out.
They had the backups in right? They did have the backups in.
But they were using Jalen Wright before the backups were in.
He was he was getting some touches prior to them sitting
all of the starters. And Mostert has really like, let
me let me pull up Mostert's snap specifically here 'cause it does
feel like he is just being used less and less as the season
progresses here. Yeah, he got he actually got a
decent number of snaps, his highest snaps in four weeks this
last week. But I'm wondering if that was.
If that was just a, you know, side effect of them being so far
ahead, let me pull up right here.
Yeah. And right now, while right saw
less snaps than most or he saw a lot more carries.
So it's just kind of like mostly out there to be out there,
'cause he's like a trusted veteran and yeah, gonna get the
ball to right when he's on the field.
Right. 13 and. That that, that those kind of
suggest that he was on the he was on the field trying to
assault the game away as well. Yeah, yeah.
I, I do think it's interesting though.
I think, you know, when you're on these really small slates, it
can be. Yeah, you're looking for these
spots where you just wanna, you're trying to get ahead of
the field by one week. You're trying to say hey I I see
that Jalen Wright is the one that's actually getting the
touches between him and most are I I wish I could go and see the
like when all the touches occurred on PFF cause from
watching the game he did get a couple early but I don't know
exactly how many came after the game was out of hand here.
Yeah, I can. I can look it up on and on the
the Rotavist Screener, OK, but it just, I, I wish there was a
more of a like you. I wish there was a more kind of
like intuitive tool. Yeah.
Are the other are just quicker? You can if you want to go to the
next chart. There is a guy on the next chart
that I think is also potentially relevant on the short
Thanksgiving slate. Oh, where did I?
I guess Roshan Johnson is not is not getting enough snaps here.
Let me, let me pull him up. So Jalen, OK, OK, I have the
answer of Jalen writes 7 rush attempts, 6 came in the fourth
quarter. OK, OK, so he did, he did just
get the one earlier, but. He he, he was in the soft the
game. Role.
Yeah, actually go go to the previous chart because I just, I
must have missed Roshan Johnson there.
Where is Roshan? I don't know he's he's been
getting, he certainly has enough snaps to qualify so.
I'm, I'm wondering why he's not showing up here.
Well, last game Roshan got 37 snaps.
Now some of those are special teams. 29 of them were actually
useful on offense and that's compared to 30 in the previous
game, 20 in the game before that, 28 in the game prior to
that. So these last four games, he's
certainly been getting opportunities.
He can get some passing game stuff, He can get the short
yardage and goal line stuff. So he's he's pretty interesting
to me as well. Like if you had to rate, if you
had to rank Roshan Johnson, Emmanuel Wilson or Jalen Wright
as far as like your level of interest in these kind of
secondary backs, which one are you most interested in playing?
So Roshan, if we're looking at kind of like expected points
over the last couple weeks, Roshan is coming in with about
6.9 expected points per game over the last four weeks since
week 9. And I'm also not sure why he's
showing up on the on the chart and we've got Ty Johnson on the
chart. We don't have Roshan Johnson on
the chart. I wonder at we'll have to, we'll
have to look powerfully into that.
Yeah. So he's coming in at about 7
expected points per game. And then after that, Jalen
Wright what? What about 3.4?
And who's the other guy you said?
Jalen Wright, Roshan Johnson and Emmanuel Wilson.
Emmanuel Wilson and he's coming in about 3.9.
So I mean just even even though. So let me, let me look up Roshan
again. So Roshan, even though he's only
on the field, so he's only on the field for 37% of snaps.
Actually, that's why he he's not showing up on the and then his
oh, his useful, his useful snaps rush plus route routes plus rush
attempts is 24%. So that's why he doesn't show up
here. And he does actually miss that
threshold. But.
I guess because he's gotten that goal line work and I mean, I
mean look up as his weekly and so he's actually got a pretty
good goal line and role in the last two games he's played in.
And if you look up as average on the last two games, it's
actually 7 point. And no, that's his, his average
on the last two games is actually about 1010 points.
So he's actually like with that goal line role, he's actually
pretty, pretty viable in a real way.
I, I don't know how much he's going to get played and but as
like as a cheaper point option, he is like heading head and
shoulders above all those other guys.
Yeah, I would guess that makes him pretty, pretty popular then.
He's 4500 on the slate, just 100 more than Ezekiel Elliott.
So he Roshan seems like a a pretty good option then if you
are trying to get gross at running back.
I mean, here, here's some of the other, you know, like secondary
options. You got Zeke Elliott.
And I, I already know how you feel there, that I believe that
you're not playing Zeke Elliott under any circumstance, am I?
Am I correct in that assumption? Yeah, I can't.
I can't do it. I can't even sell you on the
Zeke jumping in the the Salvation Army bucket on Thanks.
No, thank you. Yeah, I, I don't think I'm going
to be playing very much Zeke as well.
If we if we do wanna, there's one more guy I just wanted to
talk about very briefly on the previous chart.
Yeah, oh, scroll on the wrong one.
So Rico Dowdle has been getting pretty substantial role these
last couple weeks here. He's he's getting the receiving
work as well. I believe he had three targets
in this last game, but he's he's definitely an interesting one.
I mean, the problem is that Rico's ceiling is tied to the
Cowboys offense scoring touchdowns, which seems quite
difficult for them in the past three.
I mean, so yeah, past three games he's had three targets, 5
targets and three targets. So he's getting, he's involved
in the receiving game. And then he had 24 attempts
against Washington. So that was when the Cowboys
were kind of playing from ahead. You also can attack Washington
on the ground, but you can attack the Giants on the ground
as well, so. Yeah, I, I mean, so at least on
a on a basis, his, his role is as steady as anybody else's.
It's as it's as steady as a Chan, it's as steady as as Josh
Jacobs, and he's coming in a little bit under on the expected
points. The last four weeks.
He's at 14 expected points and but I I do I do think you've got
it. You've got one thing that will
will probably keep any one individual players ownership
down. You do actually have like a
decent like helping of of of different options like DeAndre
Swift is interesting. David Montgomery's interesting
like Jamir Gabes is probably like the one guy that everybody
wants to play and let me see what his his tag is.
So he's at 7500, Josh Jacobs at 7000 and David Montgomery is
6500. Like these all seem like not
price prohibitive. Yeah, No, the pricing is the
pricing is pretty loose on on the slate.
So I could see that keeping someone like Roshan, like
really, really low on the ownership.
Yeah, I would, I would agree. I, I think one of the big things
that you'll want to do on this slate is you're probably going
to want to leave a little salary, you know, more than,
more than you would typically think to leave just again,
'cause it is a, a short slate and the pricing's pretty loose.
I mean, even even for wide receivers, the most expensive is
almond raw and then you have only CD and neighbors or the
only other two that are above 7000.
Then every other receiver is below 6000.
You know, you can get like I, I'm assuming Dobbs is going to
be out with the concussion. I, I don't think there's any way
that he clears. So you end up with there's a
couple pretty interesting, like cheap, super cheap Packers
receivers. Like you get Beau Melton, he's
3100. That's actually one that I think
is pretty interesting. Dontavion Wix is probably the
one that catches all the steam, right.
He's 4200 and I assume that people will will just want to
play him if Dobbs misses. But we can we can save that for
the wide receiver charts. Let's let's move on to some
efficiency stuff for the running backs here.
Oh sure. And I, I, I, I think we can be
pretty quick on the efficiency stuff.
Just we can note who has been efficient.
Right, yeah, I mean Dowdell, not with a terribly disappointing
efficiency, right? Like only only slightly smaller
than 0 fantasy points over expected per game.
You know he's not sitting there in like the cream hunt or
Jonathan Taylor levels of inefficiency.
The. That I mean, as as somebody who
could could kind of get caught as in a loose slate of, of
people not being really interested in Rico Dowdle.
He's somebody who could be very interesting given like pretty,
he says his role is as strong as anybody else is on the site.
He just plays on a crappie offense.
Yeah, yeah. And you, you get the nice match
up against the Giants. The Cowboys are actually favored
too, which, you know, we we saw what they did in the game
against Washington where they did have the lead.
They were willing to run the ball.
And so if they do lead like the spread implies, then it does
seem to set up pretty well for Dowdell.
So really, I think then it's just gonna come down to how how
owned is Dowdell actually going to be?
I I would assume he gets pretty popular, but you know, less
popular than say like a Josh Jacobs or.
Yeah, it's just there's like Jameer Gibbs and and David
Montgomery have to be like, everybody's going to want to
play them. I imagine there's actually a
decent number of teams that play both of them.
And then then, yeah, you people are going to love playing a
Chan. People are going to love playing
Josh Jacobs. My, my point is more like
somebody like Rico Dowdle. I I could see him like just like
not not being clicked. Yeah, I mean, with their with
their being so few like actual starting running backs, I'm sure
he'll he'll get some some ownership.
But yeah, he's he's much less sexy to play than the other
guys. Also with David Montgomery and
Jamir Gibbs, you've got the dynamic of Montgomery leaving
the game with a shoulder injury. I believe it was right, right.
They've what I've heard is that they they think he will play.
But I, I wonder, you know, I wonder how effective.
Well, it's, it's sounded like they, they kept him out of the
game because they, they taught that the Chicago game would be
like so important for him that they wanted them like ready for
that. Yeah, yeah.
So could could just be an abundance of caution there.
And and then the only other guy we we haven't talked about too
much is younger Swift, who I guess with Roshan getting this
kind of goal line role, there's been less, there's been less of
that for, for Swift. And so he's been like 11
expected points in week 1112 and week 12 nine week 10 and week
nine. Really the last time Swift had
like a substantial role. I, I feel like he's somebody who
could get like kind of the tag of us of like people look at him
in the mindset of a starting running back, but not actually
like a lot of the trends for him are, are kind of not, not the
best. Like let me look up his.
So yeah, I guess he he, he kind of, he's kind of like the in
between the 20s running back where he's, he's on the field
for 60% of snaps, but he's not getting goal line, he's not
getting that much receiving and. Yeah, I mean, really, if you're
playing Swift, you're betting on that he is really efficient and
that he scores a touchdown from. Right.
You need two or three touchdowns probably.
Yeah, so I, I don't, I don't love that.
If you, if you give them to me low owned enough, I'll do that
'cause you know, that is that is the way that Swift has gotten
there in the past. And as he breaks off these long
touchdown runs or, you know, catches a pass in space and then
takes it to the house. So if you can do that, it's
just. Right.
That's what he does. Like you said, that's what he
does. But if that's the only, if
that's your only path, it's not someone I really want to play
into ownership, right? Right.
No, no, not at all. I think.
I think we talked about almost every.
Yeah, yeah, we talked about every backfields and.
Yeah, we can. We can go ahead and move to the.
Next, next charts. So yeah, moving and moving to
tight ends Funny. And so it I don't know it took
her craft is on the slate. Janu Schmidt, who just had the
big huge game is on the slate. Sam LaPorte is on the slate.
Luke Schumacher is on the slate. You've got a Coco.
Met is on the slate. I was going to say, you haven't
even said my favorite tight end yet for the Slate, but yeah.
And then? One I'm interested in.
And so Coco met has had a pretty he, he had some big games, but
he's been pretty quiet as of late.
His his usage metrics like at 82% of routes and then 15% of
targets per hour run is kind of mediocre and but then we we have
seen him capable of these big huge games too.
Well, and and in this, you know, past week against Minnesota, he
did get 10 targets. So to me that's pretty
encouraging 'cause we saw the 11 target game earlier in the
season where he had that big blow up game went for just under
100 yards and a touchdown and 10 receptions.
This last week against Minnesota, he gets 10 targets
again. So it's just encouraging to see
that with Thomas Brown calling the plays now and the offense
being more functional that like at least they are aware that
Kolkamet is a good player that they can get the ball to.
So I'm yeah, I'm hopeful there and.
His his kind of target stuff, it seems very spiky where like he
he's got, he's like lot. The week before week 11 he was
at 9% targets per run and this week he was at 23% and his his
10 targets were was on 55 drop backs.
Right. So it's a higher ball game for
the offense. Right, right.
But certain I, I, I think certainly a very, very
interesting player that had had hasn't popped in a big way in a
in a long time. So may go under the radar more
than you should do. Like Johnny's going to get the
attention. And then Sam Laporta, he's at 70
in the last four weeks, 76% Reds run and then with it actually an
improved 20% targets per run, which is much better than than
it was earlier in the year. His full where his full season
target sprout run is down at 15% so it has been improving and I
know it was stuck at like 10 for his first couple weeks.
Yeah, I Laporta I'm, I'm a little less, less interested in
it. Just the lions just feel like so
multiple that they have so many different ways to beat you that
Laporta is really just like a luxury for them.
It, it almost feels like every once in a while they decide like
we should, we should get Laporta a touchdown like or, or it's
almost like a bit like, all right, let's let's get Laporta
involved here because like yes, his, his targets recently are
better than the absolutely abysmal stretch he had to start
the season, but he's I. Mean they're in line with
kolkamets. Yeah, I mean, he just, but
Laporta is not getting like the targets in spikes.
He's never seen more than six targets in a game.
And if I'm trying to win a GPP, I'd rather have it be Kolkamet,
where I know that if the stars align, he could get double digit
targets. Whereas Sam Laporta feels pretty
like, feels really, really unlikely for him to get double
digit targets, seeing as he's never had more than six this
entire season. I mean, the the situations where
I'd be the most open to playing Sam Laporta and like searching
for that ceiling game is when I think that the Lions are going
to be in a really tight game with a lot of scoring.
Like I want them to be forced to pass to increase the passing
volume so he can get more targets that way.
And I want them to feel pressure to where they're having to
actually like maybe their best options are being taken away
from them more effectively than they're used to.
And they're having to go to La Porta because right now it just
feels like he's not really necessary.
Right? They can always if if they don't
have to, if they're not able to beat you with Alan Raw, they'll
do it with Jamo if you know. And, and obviously their
preferred way to beat you is just we're gonna run Gibbs and
Montgomery down your throat and then we'll mix in the pass a
little bit. I don't think we should throw
out last year though. Like he had four games last year
where he he had double digit targets and then he also had a
nine target game. I I don't want to just throw
that out. No, yeah, I'm, I'm not.
Like I I, I think if if like I I I don't know, I I I honestly see
him as a pretty similar option to Co commit.
OK, where where I I don't I don't want to like just get too,
what you call it too focused in on.
Oh, Co commit had these high target games this year and
Samuel Porta hasn't like so that means that it it can't happen
like we we we see these tight end games all the time where it
seemed just kind of covered to tight end.
So they the the tight end gets a bunch of work.
Yeah, no, that's that's certainly reasonable.
I just, I think that you're likely to see projections favor
Laporta over Cole Comet, and Laporta is 500 more expensive
than Cole Comet. I, I think, I think people, more
casual people are, are way more likely to play La Porta Dana
Dana Coca man. So that's, I think that
certainly makes sense. Yeah, there there are some some
tight ends that people are going to be less familiar with that
might actually be worth playing on this slate.
Luke Schumacher we we talked about last week.
I think he might be off the menu if Ferguson plays.
If Ferguson doesn't play, I think Schumacher will turn into
super chalk. Yeah, and he was only at 60%
Reds were on last week, 60% Reds were on 15% targets per at run.
I I don't know, I don't that that doesn't that doesn't seem
great to me. Like I think I'd rather TO
Johnson than done Luke Schumacher by by a good amount.
The the other thing that you'll sometimes see people do on these
really short slates is you play 2 tight ends because the pricing
is so loose. You play one tight end to the
flex that's a just an absolute cheap punt and then you play
another tight end and those two are just so cheap combined that
you literally get to jam all of the good skill position players
then. So the guy that would actually
be the most interesting to me to to do that, like if you're going
to play, you know, really cheap tight end, just a punt in the
flex. I think Theo Johnson is pretty
interesting. What are your thoughts on him?
So Theo Johnson, I, I am, I am a little bit surprised that his
routes came in a little bit last week.
So his route percentage was just 63% versus 76% on the season.
I don't. Want to get off the the injury
he had, a back injury he was dealing with.
Oh, OK. I was about to say I don't want
to like dial too much into it, but and I and I wondered if
there was an injury and and then he did have his his target
volume has been up to. So I think that is interesting.
And on a, on a short, like I guess on a short slate, it's
he's certainly he's, he's certainly very, very, I don't
know if he's strong, but he's certainly very, very viable.
Yeah, only, only 2900. I mean, he's probably the
cheapest like point per dollar or like targets per dollar.
Like he's probably going to be one of the better values on the
slate in my opinion. Yeah, he's had 6 targets in each
of the last three weeks. Yeah, he's he's pretty
interesting there. Let's see the only there's
really I mean, like maybe you could could say you want to see
a little Brock right? You know, Dan Dan Campbell loves
him some Brock right. Maybe you get a little Brock
right touchdown. I don't really think I'm playing
any Brock right. He's he's also more expensive
than Theo Johnson. So, you know, if you're looking
to punt tight end, I'm probably just doing Theo Johnson.
Right, right. And and then of the like, I
guess just in terms of like Showdown and with some I I see
breven span Ford, he was like honestly very similar to Luke
Schumacher in terms of routes. He's just a little bit on their
own and he's just a little bit under him in targets.
Yeah, I'd be really interested if Ferguson misses, but if
Ferguson doesn't miss, I'm pretty uninterested in Brevan.
Like it's it's hard to get different on on the on the small
slates because the player's pool is so small.
But right, you need Ferguson to miss to to be interested.
But as I get pivot off of Schumacher and I imagine he I'm
going to guess that he's he's min price.
He's 2700, so he's not he's he's close.
OK, that that seems interesting. Yeah, def yeah with you on that.
If Ferguson misses, pretty interested in Brevin Spanford.
Otherwise probably not. I I might have him in a showdown
lineup or something, but I'm I'm mme ING.
So right. Yeah.
And then we said we, we, we talked a little bit more about
the more tertiary guys. You also you, you, you mentioned
Brock were right. You also have Julian Hill for
the Dolphins, who I mean, you're probably looking at two or three
targets here. Yeah, you're looking at 2 like 2
targets probably in the game. And that that's probably like
more showdown stuff. Yeah, I think too, too thin to
play on like the three-game slate, but you can, if there's
a, in showdown, like if you're playing the, the, you know,
flagship, the largest field Lotto, if a guy is running more
than like 5 routes and they're very cheap, like they're sub
$1000, you can play them like you, you can play a kick
returner that runs 3 routes, you know, on average game like
you're like, for example, the, the slate where I won the play
action this year, I had Tywin Wallace from the Ravenson.
He'd been running like barely, I think barely like double digit
routes prior to that. I'll, I'll pull him up here.
But I, you know, if you get a min price guy that's out there
running routes, that's that's worth playing, you know?
So yeah, like here's the Tyler Wallace routes here.
He had eight. This is from week 585556.
Those are his routes. And then in the game where he
went off and had 115 yards and a touchdown, he had five routes
for three targets, 3 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown.
So like the reason that you play those Min Price guys that are
running like 5 routes or something is because it allows
you to play a very good line up around them and have a
relatively low owned line up that you're playing.
It's not gonna be duplicated very much.
And when that guy scores a touchdown, it's not, it doesn't
have to happen very often, but when he scores a touchdown and
the rest of your lineup that you played is is good, then you
bink. And so that's that's kind of why
you play those really, really low owned guys.
It's just like. We're talking about Julian Hill,
right? That's so he had a, he had 11
routes, 16 routes, 10 routes in the last three weeks.
Yeah, so he, he definitely seems like someone that will make it
into my My Showdown set. And got it.
And I'm I'm looking at these at the rest of these guys.
I I don't think we need to to talk.
To no, it's more, I don't think any of the rest of them are
terribly viable. So we can we can move on to
receivers here. So and this is the the receiving
chart. Sorry about the the that noise
there. And I guess contrary to kind of
like a pretty if the the running back seems like a lot of kind of
mediums type of guys. Where's you have on this one,
you have CD lamb on the receivers, you have CD Lamb.
You've Malik neighbors, you've Tyree kill, you've Joe and
Waddle, you've Romo Dunze, you have DJ Murr, you have you have
all these, you have all these Packers, you have all these all
these bears and some pretty high-powered offenses.
And I guess the the I think the temptation probably will be to
see how many of these like stood receivers you can get in the
lineup. And it's kind of trying to find
who's the who's the guy who's just below that level, who has
it, who has a good game. Yeah.
I mean, the one that's like if you want to a really gross one,
I mean, Jalen Tolbert has been running lots of routes, you
know, pretty consistently getting targets like he, he
hasn't had under 4 targets since week 8.
So he's he's getting those targets now.
The bad thing is he's not really doing anything with them.
He's managed to fall in the end zone or get in the end zone a
couple times in the last four weeks.
So to me, his ceiling feels pretty limited.
He's not getting a ton of yardage.
You know, his biggest yardage game was back in Week 5 where he
went for 87. But that was, that was just he,
he just, you know, got peppered with targets, had 10 targets in
that game. He hasn't really shown anything
like that since. So he seems like at the very
least an interesting play for a touchdown for me.
Now his price is 3800. So he's basically in the price
range of some of the some of the better tight ends like 3800.
That'd be 100 more expensive than Tucker Craft, 100 cheaper
than Jake Ferguson. So I don't know he, he's at the
very least interesting to me just 'cause he's on the field,
he's getting lots of routes. And again, like everyone wants
to play the good, like, you know, everyone wants to play the
good players. So.
Right, right. No, no, he's, he's.
Not even out here running lots of routes.
Right. And the other one that strikes
me in that kind of range is as like a Darius Slayton and his
his routes did seem to tail off the last game.
He was down at just like 50% in in week 12.
I, I, I honestly, I don't, I don't know if that was like an
injury or if like he was apparently he was very upset
when they released Daniel Jones. Oh, he had a he had an injury.
OK. OK, yeah, I know.
I know. Hyatt's routes have been
trending up. I believe I'll pull him up here.
Still, on Hyatt, he was up at 81 percent of a restaurant.
Unfortunately, no targets. Well, no, he got 4 target or am
I looking at? No, that's what we.
Did he got 4 targets Carolina? Yeah, OK, OK, see, I know no
targets last week, but I mean, he is, he is a a deeper, he
operates deeper down the field. So you know, you you could like
his his A dot. Now he's not getting targets in
a ton of games, but his A dot. The last time he got targeted in
Carolina was 9.5 had a 8 out of 32 against Philly.
So he's got I mean he's got a 8 out of 53 and 43 here.
Most of those are just one target games.
The one game where you got 4 targets is a 8 out of 16.
So I, I like, I like the call of, you know, you started on
Slaton, but with Slaton dealing with the injury, I think Hyatt
is at the very least interesting as well.
But basically with Hyatt, you're just like, can he get one of
these deep targets and turn it into a touchdown?
That's really what you're playing for.
It's on, on these small slates. Like we said, it does start to
kind of feel like showdown adjacent where you're like, can
this guy score a touchdown or do anything?
But he's, he's only 3200. So he is very cheap now there's
a couple guys right around this price range that I think are are
some of the better plays on the slate.
So like you have Kevante Turpin at 3300.
I kind of wonder though if his recent he got had the kick
return touchdown in the you know game prior to that he had the
big 64 yard touchdown. So like he is Kevante Turpin has
has been flashing lately, so I kind of think he might catch
some steam in in this range of guys.
So he's at 18% routes run 17% targets for a run.
So he had so that, that 17 percent is, is is good for one
target in, in we 12. So I, I, I think you are
probably better off going with the guys who are out there
running routes. Yeah, So what, what do you
think? Let's, I mean, we can, we can
move on from this wide receiver one chart 'cause I, I feel like
the guys that are worth talking about are, are gonna be these
more tertiary guys, 'cause I, I don't think we're gonna tell
people anything revelationary for the guys that they know they
weren't right. In fact, I think we probably
just wanna go all the way. We, we wanna go down to the
dumpster here. Let's go down to the the final.
Point I'm actually some I'm trying to find if there's any
the the other guys because we're trying to find, we're trying to
identify rest. But no, I don't see anybody
here. That's somebody we wanted to
talk about. Yeah, the the ones that I'm
really interested in that I was teasing are guys who haven't
been running routes or very many routes lately, but they're gonna
they should get opportunity here due to injury.
Dante beyond Wicks is one who will get increased opportunity
very likely with Dobbs likely to miss.
But I think Beau, like Beau Melton is the one that I really
don't want to sleep on that he's he's not even going to show up
on this chart because he doesn't even have 40% routes to run.
But Beau Melton, let me let me pull him up here.
Yeah, in the last game just had eight routes.
I, I, I could see that going up because the Dobbs injury didn't
happen until later in the game. Now, I believe.
Let's compare that to Wix here. Yeah, Wix, Wix up at 11 routes.
So him and Melton in like a similar range of routes.
Now, we've seen Wix get on the field more this season than
we've seen Melton get on the season.
You know, Wix did have some some weeks where he's running more
routes than most Melton's ever had in a week was only 13.
Yeah, all the way back and the most targets he's had is tree.
I I think I, I hate saying it like this, but I think we can be
fairly sure that Beau Nelton needs 2 tight, 2 injuries to be
yeah, to be really relevant because the season high here is
45% rats. I guess season high in games
that he saw as Harrogate because otherwise he doesn't show up on
the on on the table. Yeah, So it it sounds like what
you're saying is Bo Melton No on the three gamer, but but maybe
in showdown. Yeah, yeah, definitely more of a
show, a showdown and play, I think.
OK, what about another guy in this price range is Odell
Beckham? What are are you?
Do you have any thoughts on Odell Beckham?
So let me let me see where he comes up.
So he he has been playing for a while now and so 47% and I'm
going to start with week 1047% routes, 37% routes, 38% routes.
And you're looking at an average of about 3 targets a game here
and you're looking at an A dot of about 10.
I think that that is also more of a showdown.
Yeah, it's just he, he has to score a touchdown.
And even if he scores a touchdown on and he played him
on the three-game slate, like what's your bet?
Your best case scenarios, maybe 10 points, right, a touchdown,
couple reception, 20 yards or something, 'cause he hasn't.
He hasn't had a relief. Yeah, yeah.
So probably solid showdown play 2 gross for the three gamer.
Is there anyone else that you have as someone that you you
think you could actually play on a three-game slate that might be
one of these deeper dumpster dives?
And I don't think he's like a deepster dumpster dive.
And but Romeo Dobbs is only 4600.
Well, he he has the concussion. So he's not oh, he oh, OK, he
has a concussion. Yeah, that's that's why I was
saying that we could see the increased.
Route volume. OK, OK, I missed that.
So, Christian, does Christian Watson, does he have an injury
too? Or do I?
I don't believe so, no. OK, OK, so it's just them, It's
just Dobbs who's injured, right? I don't know why I thought that
it was Watson who was hurt. I mean, that's a safe assumption
to make that Christian Watson is hurt.
Right. I was like, oh, Packers injury.
It must be Christian Watson. So he's only 4900 and then Wix
is 4200. Yeah, I I get, I guess both of
those guys will be the, the, the, the cheap plays that people
use to make things work. Yeah, I mean, I'm, I'm pretty
interested in. We didn't think, we didn't talk
about Tim Patrick, you see. Oh.
Tim Patrick's a good one. Tim Patrick's a really good one,
yeah. I had, I had him in my head
before the show and then I almost like just let us.
Oh, no, I'm good. I don't.
Yeah, Tim Patrick, he and he will have weeks where he's at
like week 9, he was at 78% of routes.
I I think that was probably the JMO week and then he was at 68%
in week, 1150% in week 12. And he's seen 4 targets the last
two weeks. So I think he's like not that
much. And there's not that much more
meat on on the bone relative to some of the guys who just can't
play. But there's just enough that
there's something to play there. Yeah, he is.
I, I would say he's borderline viable for the three gamer and
he is really, really interesting for showdown 'cause you have the
Khalif Raymond injury as well. So I think that'll elevate his
playing time. So I I think if we wanted to
summarize like of the gross receivers, it's basically the
the Packers like Dante beyond Wix, I think Watson, Watson's
probably like too mainstream to to get to count as gross.
So I guess you're you're looking at Wix and Tim Patrick.
And then I yeah, I think, I think I'm still with you that
Melton is probably too gross to play on the three gamer.
I mean, Tim, Tim Patrick, if he comes in low owned on showdown
would be a smash. I don't think you'll get him to
fly under the radar on Showdown, but he's he's right on the
borderline for the three gamer as someone that's at the very
least worth sprinkle and if you're Max entering.
Right. And then I think it's kind of
worth talking about the the Chicago guys where they all seem
to cannibalize each other enough that they're not going to be I,
I have a hard time seeing any of them be be popular.
I mean, it's such a small slate and I I could definitely see
people playing this game. Is the game that goes off 'cause
it's against the Lions. Let's flip back to the the wide
receiver one charts. I believe they all live on
there. Yeah, yeah, you're right.
They all run so many rounds. So a doomsday is, yeah, they're
a doomsday and Keenan are both in that, the wind sprinter
quadrant here and then. But it's kind of like, so
Christian Watson and Wix are in the four thousands and then
Keenan Allen and Roman Dunze are 5000 and 5100.
So it's only a couple dollars, it's only a couple bucks more to
move up price wise from from Wix and Watson to these Chicago
guys. And then DJ Murr is only 5600.
I mean. So they are in the wind
sprinter. I I get it because they've been
cannibalizing each other so much.
But I do wonder if that's kind of like a, if these are the guys
who are kind of in the middle when people are, are, are using
the Packers to jam the studs. If those guys are worth playing,
I think they are. Yeah, so I mean, this last week
you, you got that really high pass attempts game from the
Bears here. It kind of sets up to be another
really high pass attempts game for them.
I I would assume they'll be playing from behind against
Detroit, who's a very good offense.
Like we've seen Detroit have these big shootout games.
I if there's one offense that I have confidence in being able to
overcome the strong Bears defense, it's Detroit.
I mean, we saw that the Vikings do just fine against them,
right? They were able to push them and
have a, you know, a game that yielded a pretty fruitful
fantasy environment. It, it might just be as easy as
saying I'm gonna take Kale Williams, who's underpriced, and
I'm just gonna stack him with all three receivers.
I'm, I'm just doing a band's onslaught.
That's what I'm gonna do. It won't be owned enough, you
know, And, and like you said, the receivers are all relatively
cheap. And I mean, shoot, just just
pretend just in your mind's eye for, for anyone who's thinking,
oh, that's that. You'll never get there doing
that. It's a three-game slate, so you
don't need as many points right. You're you're just looking to to
capture some points here. And if what if Dale?
Williams plays really good. Well, and so if you got the
exact result that you got last week, so you get 106 and one on
7 receptions for DJ Moore, you get, you know, 8 targets, only 5
receptions for 39 yards for Roma Dunsday.
So that one you're not happy with, right?
And then you get 16 targets, 9 receptions, 86 and one for
Keenan Allen. I mean, just could you imagine
what if Caleb Williams threw one more touchdown and it went to
Roma Dunsday there, you know, and what if it happened to be
one of those deep passes that they've been so close at
connecting on? And so then you get three guys
averaging close to 100 yards each with a touchdown on a
three-game slate all stacked up with the quarterback.
I think think that's a way that I'm pretty interested in
attacking this slate, just doing the full Bears onslaught in a
game where the highest total that we think could really be a
fun one. Right.
And and they're all like 5000. So you're you're, you're you're
getting that stock for like 22,000, So very, very cheap,
yeah. Fuck it, I might, I might throw
Cole Commed in there too. Just right, the Bears quad.
Why not? Right, what, what could go
wrong? And but I, I, I do.
So I'm I'm saying this completely blind without
ownership, which is stupid and but I I do see that as a
potentially very strong pivot off of the cheap hackers.
Yeah, no, I, I think you're right.
I think it's, again, we'll have to see how ownership and
projection shake out and, and how how much people are gonna be
leaning into that, you know, the Bears and Lions game through the
Bears side. But from a early look, I I
really don't hate the idea of like these Bears onslaughts.
Right, right. And then so I, I, I think that
kind of covers us for the, I think we've kind of talked
through pretty much everything on the, on the, on the showdown
stuff. Is there anything otherwise like
any any of these positions that we should be?
I don't think so. I think we covered the the most
interesting angles for the Thanksgiving slates.
So yeah, I I think with that we can wrap up.
Hope you are all going to enjoy a day full of food and football
and family in whichever order you prefer.
And good luck. We will see you next week for
Week 13. Yeah.
See you. See you everybody.
Thanks for joining.