What is up everyone? Welcome to week, 14 stat,
chasing at week, 14 coming up, here we are close to the thick
of the playoffs. People have either started their
playoff one or more. Hoping to continue their playoff
run. If you are continuing.
Congratulations. If you've made the playoffs,
congrats to you as well. If you haven't, hopefully, you
can still give you some relevant tidbits.
If you're playing DFS this season or are going to play any
of the playoff contest coming up, but my name is Sam hopin.
I am your host for the show. If you haven't watched before.
Thank you for tuning in. Is the show were all be going
through. Many of the key stats and
metrics that I think are important to help lay the
foundation. For understanding.
What happened this past week. It's pretty much the start of my
research for the week to understand what happened and try
to explain what might happen in the upcoming week and hope to do
the same for you. But before I get into the
details, going to walk through again.
Quickly, the stats that I'll be using on the show today.
So if you are new, you understand, what each of the
stats, I'm referring to our from PFF.
I get all of my routes data. So that's any metric related to
routes that started to grow up run anything like that.
I also get their expected fantasy points from their is
well, which is a model built that weights Opportunity by the
line of scrimmage. I use this.
Primarily as a measure of usage and this is not to be confused
with projected fantasy points. This is what a player would
expect to get given. The sort of workload, he was
given and the opportunity, the number of opportunities and
where those opportunities came. From the NFL play by play data
is where I get the majority of my stats.
From NFL faster, I get area rugs from there which is the
distance, the ball travels in the air before it gets to a
receiver. Part of that is Whopper which is
weighted opportunity rating. That's a metric that Josh firms
when I created that weights area of share and Target share for a
player. Also use racer which is receiver
are conversion ratio, that's receiving yards.
Yes. Excuse me, / area, ards.
And that's essentially a receivers ability to convert are
yards into actual yards as a sign of efficiency.
Excuse me on the flipside have Paster which is passing air
conversion ratio, passing hours. / passing are regards and shows
how well quarterbacks or his receivers are converting areas
in the actual yards. Four quarterbacks I have
entrusted yards per attempt which is yards per attempt.
But weights it with interceptions and touchdowns
giving a bonus for touchdowns and taking away four
interceptions. I also use pass rate over
expectation and completion percentage over expectation.
Pete, Pastor no transportation is at the team level and that is
the difference between a team's expected pass rate and their
actual pass rate. And then cpoe is the difference
between a quarterback's expected, completion percentage
in his actual completion percentage.
And those are two models built into the player.
Excuse me, the play-by-play data in the NFL.
Finally have a couple of stats popularized by been Gretsch
himself. I have waited targets per
outrun, primarily use this for the wide receiver position.
And this is targets per route run, but weights are yards and
the distance that a target comes up and includes a standard
scalar as well. And also have high value touches
which is a running back specific metric.
This looks at carries inside the 10 yard line and any optional
also refer to green zone touches which is a touch inside, the
opponent's 10-yard line, whether it's a catch or a Carrie.
So I'm going to go through these position by position.
As I always do, we'll have a couple of Team specific
situations to talk through, at the end of a reminder, to
subscribe to the YouTube channel.
Like this video, become a member become a member to the ship
chasing channel for just. Five dollars a month to get live
access to this show, be able to access the Discord, which is And
a bunch of other benefits and a final shot out to at change
College on Twitter who has been doing a great job.
Helping us out with timestamps for each of the positions and
team conversations. I got a lot of questions in the
Discord this week about specific items and situations that they
wanted me to cover today. So if you're so inclined to just
skip ahead to those, you're free to do that with the timestamps.
Alright, enough of the details. It's time to get into the
important stuff and I'm pulling up the truck here.
Hopefully you're watching this on YouTube and helps to be able
to see the chart and understand where players are on said chart
as I talk through them. This first one is for the
quarterback position on the x-axis have adjusted yards per
attempt on the y-axis have touchdown rate.
And then the size of a player's bubble is his rushing yards per
game again, looking for efficiency here because that's
primarily what drives fantasy production at the quarterback
position. Volume is not as big of an
indicator as it is for the other positions.
And unfortunately, someone who hasn't been as efficient lately
is Lamar Jackson. You can see him on the chart
here way. Way over to the right, has an
adjusted yards per attempt at around four and a half yards.
Still, an average 4% touchdown rate over the last five weeks.
But he's, he's just been a little off and you can see it if
you've actually watch the games, I know I've been watching the
games, not everyone has, that's okay.
But anyway, he just doesn't look the same over the past.
For weeks, he is averaging, excuse me.
Yeah, over the last four weeks, he's averaging two interceptions
per game. This is since the by me, he
missed the one game due to the illness.
So, we thrown eight interceptions since then, which
is not great. As about has six touchdowns in
that span, as well as still throwing 230 passing yards per
game and rushing it. For 71 yards per game.
So that's really good. And was what's keeping his floor
relatively high? But since the by he has three of
his four games, he's recorded fewer than 18 fantasy points.
He was below that Mark, just once in the first seven games of
his season and he had a spike week in week 9, scoring 30 and a
half fantasy points. But since then, it's been Rather
disappointing for someone who you likely would have been
relying on from a fantasy perspective in weeks 2 through
6, he had a positive cpoe. And since week 7, it's been - he
has a - cpoe in every single game since week 7 with a low at
- 13% in week in week 7. But again, the rushing yards are
helping. He's averaging about 15, tsunami
13 carries per game since the, by has Kari counts of 20 1814,
and ate his last four games, which is about on par with what
he was doing in the first seven weeks of the, the season and Not
that this impacts his efficiency at all.
It certainly, impacts is volume a little bit from a passing
perspective, but before the, by the Baltic, the Baltimore Ravens
have password over expectation of zero percent.
So, they were right about at League average, which is was
good. It was higher than what it had
been in Baltimore in previous years.
But since the by they are at negative four percent and the
starting to lean a lot more on the Ground game.
It seems like they are starting to trust Devonta Freeman and
latavius Murray a little bit more which it's not necessarily
something I would be doing but it's what they're doing.
Nonetheless they're leaving back towards the run.
So the run the Run game will continue to keep Jackson's floor
high but I think to really explode and capture that
ceiling, he's going to need to improve his passing down the
stretch here. on the flip side, a player whose rushing.
Carried him. This past week, Kyler Murray
back in action against the Bears.
Had a season High ten Russia's against them.
So certainly there was no no concern about trying to keep him
healthy from a Russian perspective and that helped him
he had in the game. He had 59 rushing yards.
Excuse me, two rushing touchdowns so That on it in
itself is 18 points from a fantasy perspective, so he could
have done, nothing else from the passing game and had a totally
solid day, but still through for 123 yards and two touchdowns,
only threw the ball 15 times. And I think that was just a
function of the game that they were playing.
They really didn't need to against the Bears who struggled
to get anything going on offense.
I think that's primarily a concern for the past Textures in
Arizona and DeAndre Hopkins did have the one longest touchdown,
but I've tried that didn't really do much, so had a solid
game in his game back, but in any case, Getting back to
Kyler's. He Didn't Throw It particularly
deep either. So it might have just been a
game where You know they said hey we don't need to do a lot to
win this game against the Bears. Our defense is playing
tremendously right now. Murray had a 3.9 average depth
of Target in the game. This past week before that his
season low was seven yards in a single game.
So I'm not worried about Kyler's, passing volume going
down by any means. Is because again, he can, he is
pretty much the goal line. Back for that offense, if it's
not James Conner. And and that showed this past
week, he does still have a positive cpoe on the season.
Has a positive cpoe and every single game this season truly
playing it in MVP level. When he is in the lineup when
the with snow and Kyler was out those 33 games.
I believe it's three. And then they have their buy-in
there as well. So you missed four weeks but in
those three games Arizona's password over expectation, was
at 2% with Kyler in the lineup. It was at about 1% so they
actually were a tad more aggressive, throwing the ball
with without Kyler and part of that I think was the game
situations they were in for, for some of them but in any case,
it's good to see. See that it didn't completely
bottomed out without Kyler and they're still comfortable
passing the ball regardless of whose understand you could see
collar up here, just breaking the scale on the chart here for
the week, 13. Excuse me, production chart
here, at a great, it just does portents and touchdown, right?
That that's what happens when you only throw like 15 times,
Matt Jones didn't make it on the chart because you only through
it three times, which I don't believe I'll be talking about
later. But that game was just really
funny. Gardner Minshew showing up here,
obviously, that was against the Jets so sort of easy to have a
solid game against them. The Eagles are entering their by
this week and then forget who they play coming out of the by
but still to be determined if he'll be the starter coming out
of it. The last the one other note that
I wanted to mention at the quarterback position is that
Justin Herbert in their game. This week had a Tevin seven or
ten point seven, yard average depth of Target which was his
deepest, a dot in a single game this season.
It was only the third time. He's been over nine yards in a
game as previous high, was nine and a half yards and I don't
think he needs to be throwing it that far every single game.
But if it's at the high eights or low nines, that's where he's
going to Excel and truly hit a ceiling.
It certainly helped Mike Williams a little bit jail,
inviting, some of the other tertiary pieces in that offense
but Herbert just had A phenomenal day.
Made some of the most impressive throws that I've seen all season
which he, he can certainly do week in and week out.
So there's a, there's some concern.
If Keenan Allen is going to play this upcoming week, he was put
on the covid reserved lifts list, but I am pretty sure he's
back sedated. So he still has a chance to play
this upcoming Sunday, which might be a big loss to Herbert
but they play the Giants. So I'm not not all that
concerned either way. All right, get it on to the
running back position. The most important position in
all fantasy football, some would say, maybe not here.
But yeah, a case on the chart here on the x-axis have rushing
expected points on the y-axis have receiving expected points
and then the size of a player's bubble is his fantasy points
over expectation. That's F po.
As all refer to in, this is all these are all per game numbers
as well and going to kick off the running back position
looking at the Raiders running backs because Kenyan Drake is
now out for the season has an ankle injury.
And I think this opens up Josh Jacobs to and someone pointed
this out on Twitter. I think put some almost in a
notch, a Harris roll through the end of the season.
Now we'll see if other running backs get involved without
drink, maybe jail or shark comes back or they for some reason,
get paid and Barbara more involved but since the week
seven. Bye.
For the Raiders, Josh Jacobs is commanding. 70% of the backfield
Touches for the Raiders has an average of five point, eight
targets per game, 12.8 carries per game.
So he's averaging over 18 and a half opportunities.
Per game, has a very solid 6.2 high-value touches per game.
And thanks to all that is averaging 15 PPR points per
game. On top of, that is running a
route on 52% of Dropbox, which is really solid for a running
bag. You can see here on the chart
that he is, fourth in receiving expected fantasy points per
game, Over the last five weeks, he's averaging. 9.6, receiving a
people game which is just phenomenal.
Like, you don't see that that often obviously.
Yeah, it's crazy to see Leonard fournette up there on the chart
as well. But in any case, I mean, this is
higher than guys like like JD mckissack, like, Cordero,
Cordarrelle, Patterson, like nausea Harris, and that's the
stuff of work horse, running backs for sure in week. 13 in
this again was obviously with Kenyan Drake leaving a little
bit early. Jacob's had a season High 85%
snap share, he had 22 opportunities, which is his
second highest of the season coming after his most of the
season with 26 and week, 12 and obviously, two straight games
with over 20 opportunities, ran a route on a season High 71
percent of drop backs and has been above 50% the last three
weeks. Also had the second most high
value touches on the week with 10 and week, 13 and had one
green zone touch. And Jacobs has at least one
green zone touch in all, but one game this season and week 11 was
the one time that he didn't So this is really, really good
news. If you have Josh Jacobs, I
don't, I'm not going to touch. I think Kenyan Drake was
interesting at times for PPR leagues, because he was
averaging three and a half targets per game.
I think Jalen. Richard is the most likely
person to step into that role, but the hope is that Jacobs just
takes over all of that. And becomes the Workhorse that
we've seen him. Be.
Staying with the AFC West, we got to see what a Workhorse roll
looks like on Javonte Williams and Christian asking in the
Discord of Williams production will sustain when Melvin Gordon
returns. And I'm not going to sit here
and tell you that, I think it will because we don't you know I
it's not go I don't think it's going to stay what it was.
In week 13 going forward because Melvin Gordon is still solid.
Like he's put up some solid games, this year both from a
fantasy and a real life perspective and I think it could
be an Aaron Jones, JJ Dillon type situation in this first
game. Back for Melvin, Gordon in that
game. Aaron Jones.
I think had about ten opportunities and JJ Dillon had
like 20 or something like that and leave it as the game against
the Rams actually. And it was a situation where the
Bronco or excuse me, the Packers were up.
So, big against the Rams that it really didn't make sense for
them to push Aaron Jones to get more touches, but if my memory
serves me correctly, the Broncos, played the Jets in week
14. So it could be a very, very
similar situation to that where they ride Javonte Williams,
given he is healthy but want to talk quickly about the week that
William had without Melvin Gordon, because and before I get
to that, it's You know what? Let's talk about the week that
he had, so he had 32 opportunities had Over I believe
over 150 total yards. He had 23 carries and nine
targets. Again, Mike Boone was mildly
involved, he had five touches, but Williams ran a route.
I'm sixty-four percent of drop backs, had 11 rushing and 11
receiving expected. Fantasy points had six fantasy
points over expectation. Because again, like I the
scoring certainly helped him. But have seven high-value
touches got the loan green zone, touch for the Broncos in that
game. Just truly a remarkable game for
Williams who is a shining star. But what I wanted to mention is
that things were starting to turn a little bit in this
backfield before Gordon got hurt.
So, in every single game from week 5 through week 9, so Five
straight weeks, Melvin Gordon had out snapped javontae
Williams and then in weeks, 10 and huichol 12.
Williams was above Gordon at 57% to 43%, in both cases.
So there was already sort of a change.
Again, big are Changing of the Guard if you will.
Now Gordon, didn't did end up having more opportunities in
both of those games. So he, he was still involved,
but William still got more high-value touches in those
games, you had four and week 10, 6, and week 12, while Gordon had
only three in each of those two games Williams, this past week
had a, like I said, a seven high-value touches, which is a
season high for him. And his routes run rate has been
above 55 percent in each of the last three weeks before.
Week 10, it had never gotten above 45 percent.
So that's a pretty drastic switch to see him getting all of
that past and work the final thing I'll say is that again
they pretty much split the green zone touches in weeks nine
through 12, but we've seen in other scenarios That season and
season pass about the post by Ricky A bomb, and it sort of
looked like it was going that way and week, 12, and then
Gordon gets hurt. So, it's not, there's obviously
little Credence to getting more workload in week 13 but Still
very, very encouraging. And if you held onto Williams,
this long, you are hopefully going to be rewarded for the
next several weeks. Okay, the next situation I'm
going to talk about, I said, I wasn't talking about this game,
but I forgot. I wanted to talk about the
Patriots running back. Someone had asked about this in
the Discord. All these caveat here, that
Damien Harris did, leave the game early last night, and the
total numbers for these players are going to be very skewed
because All of the Patriots. I don't remember exactly how
many times they ran and I think it was like 40 some 45 times or
something like that. Only passed the ball three
times. They were hell-bent on running
didn't even want to give Matt Jones, an opportunity to throw
the ball. But in any case, we'll look at
this backfield in the scope of the last three weeks because
those are the three weeks that Damien Harris has been healthy.
And I say that he missed week 10, and then it's been back for
weeks, 11, 12 and 13. They enter their by as well.
So I think it's likely that Harris is back in suited up for
them in week 15 but in any case the split had gotten a lot
closer between Stephenson and Harris for those three weeks.
Actually Stevenson. And again, this is where some of
the Tobias comes in with the game yesterday, Stephenson has a
51%. Share of the backfield touches,
Harris only x 36 and that's because Stevenson had 24
opportunities in the game. Last night, he had 25 in the
game in week 10, that Damien Harris missed.
So again, if Harris was to miss time, then for sure, you're
plugging in Stevenson into your lineup.
And I think early on in the game last night, Harris was getting a
lot of run pun intended and people were sort of wondering
what happened to Stevenson because he had been getting a
little bit more involved was, but was just out of the
question, but Stevenson had a season High 63 percent snap
chair, which is the largest single largest, snap share for a
Patriots, winning back this season.
Damien Harris was at 61% in week four.
But has not been above 40% in the last four weeks.
And Brandon Bolden is mildly involved.
He hasn't had, he said fewer than 10 Tartan opportunities in
all but one game this season. So he's just sort of going to be
a thorn in the side of both of these guys primarily Stevenson
who is getting a little bit more of the passing down work.
Brandon Bolden Rena route and got one target.
So had a solid 33% routes run rate, but again, they all have
to be 3 times. The other thing to note here
though is that Harrison Stevenson have essentially split
the high-value touches the last three weeks and Stephenson just
has yet to find the end zone, so that should help him as a -2.2
fantasy points over expectation. So, the way I'm thinking about
this situation is that, if Damon hairs plays, you're for sure
playing Karis because they want to play him if he's healthy
enough. And if he does play, Then
Stevenson is probably a flex option and if Harris does not
play them, Stevenson is for sure.
Like an rb2, I do, I think Borden will take that many more
opportunities from him, if he is the league back, So that's that
situation going to move quickly. Now, to the Jaguars running
backs here and had a bit of a weird situation, James Robinson,
sort of got benched in this game and then came back late in the
game, three of his five, Sydney, free of his eight carries, were
in the final two minutes of the game when the Jaguars were
trailing by 30 points. And And so on after Urban Meyer
back, Daddy said there's a running back rotation and
running back coach. Bernie Parmalee must have wanted
to get Robinson a few more carries that point when I said
that didn't seem wise Meyer Meyer said I didn't greet.
So kind of weird situation Robinson.
Had a 52% snap share in the game and hasn't been above 65 percent
since week. When he was at 85% and he was at
60% or above in 3 straight games.
There, Meanwhile, Carlos Hyde was above 44%.
Excuse me, was that 44% was above 30%.
In a game in which Robinson was fully healthy for the first time
since week three. So Robinson was looking like the
lead back. He had at least 15 opportunities
and weeks, 10 through 12 that had only 12 this past week
Robinson. Also had at least three
high-value touches in those three weeks.
Only had one this past week. And what's really locking down
the green zone work? As well as it was averaging
one-and-a-half. This whole season didn't have
any this past week. Carlos Hyde that the loan the
too long green zone, touches in that game.
So it's it's hard to trust, it's hard to trust, overmyer shocker,
but You're for sure, still not going to start off side because
the ceiling is so low. He's everything 4.4 expected
points per game over his last for, but Robinson, I think you
want to hear maybe some positive more positive, coach feet coming
out of Myers mouth this week. And Just pray that things go
back to normal with that situation Robinson hasn't also
hasn't been above a 50% routes run rate since week 6.
So his passing work has gone down a little bit as well.
So got a question from couple final things on the running back
position. Got a question from Nomar. 972
in the Discord asking if James Conner keeps this workload with
Chase Edmunds coming back. I don't think it does.
I think the big thing that will go away are the targets because
Edmonds is such a good pass catching back he went from just
one point two Targets per game. Without Edmund talks to me with
Edmonds 24.3 without Edmonds and he said five more rushing
attempts per game as well, but that'll drop down to, I think
about 12 and a half 13 per game which is not Terrible.
And excuse me. He was being used more as a
goal-line back. That Edmonds was.
So that's the the hope is that the the touchdown Equity stays
with With con sorry. David Montgomery, had 11, high
value taxes in week. 13 net, laid all running back, so again,
he's in a bell tower roll. Sony, Michelle was the guy for
the Rams this week. There are hundreds and was
active but was really only used for emergency situations.
Michelle had played on 97% of snaps render out on 3141.
Drop backs at 24 26, running back carries had all of the
running back targets and had 54 yards on 12, carries against
stack boxes, which is a term or Defenders.
That's all from mr. John diggle.
So, again, whichever one it's Michelle or it's Henderson.
One of those two guys is going to be the Workhorse final thing.
Kenny game. Well.
Had 12 carries in the game against the Jets, but eight of
his 12 carries were in the final eight plays of the game.
When Philly was in clock, killing a mode as been Gretsch
pointed out his newsletter. Boston, Scott will also not 100%
in this game. So that's a little bit.
What led to gain Wells, big game.
All right, the wide receiver position going to start this one
here with the Bucks wide receivers because we now know
that Antonio Brown is going to be out for at least the next two
games, he is suspended for faking his vaccinations card.
Or as vaccination, status, whatever it is.
So the good thing is that we have a good split of games
without Antonio Brown. And this is all coming from
since week 7, Chris Coghlan with the big week this past week at
17 targets. But my Kevin still had 10
Targets in this game. They're both ever going to over
seven targets per game since A bee has been out, have a nearly
identical Whopper at right around 0.46.
Godwin is slightly leaning in Target, share 24, percent to 18
percent, but Evans has a 30% area are share compared to 20%
the only two receivers running a route on more than 65% of
drawbacks in there. Both had 90%, plus they are both
averaging over 13. Good points per game, which is
solid. So, both of these guys continue
to be studs, the one guy that I do want to talk about, is
prashad Pyramid. Helium-3 Targets in the game,
but Randall route on 90% of Dropbox.
He was at 32% in week 11. So someone to potentially keep
an eye on Tyler Johnson, his routes rate.
Dropped from around 65% in the prior three weeks to 14% in week
13. So it's looking like periman has
taken over that opportunity in Tampa Bay.
Speaking of taking over opportunities, the Vikings
unfortunately are going to be without a demand.
Feeling sounds like he'll be back this season but unknown,
whether she knew when he will be back and Justin Jefferson was
already lighting it up. With Feelin and I don't think.
Really his opportunities going to get that much bitter, excuse
me without feeling you had a 34 percent Target share in the
game. This past week, 14 targets, 182
yards, and a touchdown, 35 PPR points.
Ran around 98% of drop backs away to Target, brought one of
0.87 just phenomenal. And you can see him on the truck
here. Like, this is weeks 1913.
He was already at an elite share of Area.
Arts Elite waited targets per hour.
Run just The stone nuts for Justin Jefferson but the guy to
talk about here is KJ Osbourne. He ran a route on 96% of Dropbox
and week three. And that was his highest Mark of
the Season highest since he ran on around, 90% of drawbacks in
week one, and but hadn't been above 80% in any week since
then, he got had seven targets. In week, 13, which was His
Highest since week one as well, the second highest Mark of the
season. So I think basically all of
Steel and targets will sort of shift to Osborne.
I don't expect Osborne to be nearly as efficient as Feelin.
Has been obviously deals with a touchdown scoring machine.
So, again, KJ Osbourne, the big priority here but DD Westbrook,
which is kind of a weird name to say.
But He is should be on your radar as well.
You render out on 60% of drawbacks which was by far, his
season-high hadn't been murdered above 31% in any game this
season. So basically double his previous
season, High only had two Targets in this game, but
they'll need a third wide receiver and he looks to be the
one that will be stepping up in dealings absence. all right,
going to flip the chart over to the week 13 chart And focusing
now on the Los Angeles, Rams. Because we now have a three-game
sample with Odell Beckham jr. On the team.
Christie also wanted me to talk about this situation as well.
And it's an interesting three-game sample that we have
Cooper cup is Cooper cop. Like he's continuing to crush,
it has double digit Targets in every single game, but one this
season. And can just turn turn it on
whenever you want, but obj and Van Jefferson have sort of
flipped flopped as the Deep guy in.
Over the last three weeks, it was Odell Beckham jr.
And week 10, granted. He only played for about 25% of
drawbacks in that game, but obj's been at over 100
receiving, excuse me area. Ours, the last two weeks.
Jefferson was at 164 and week 12 and then only 57 in week 13.
And in the last three games oh BJ has a weighted targets per
outrun of 0.76. So really solid.
For him and only had five Targets this passive but had 10
in the week before van Jefferson was at 9 and week 12 and 8 this
past week. Jefferson is still running a
route. A lot more.
Consistently Beckham was up at 97% in week 12, but drop back
down to 56 percent in week 13. So unfortunately, I think
Beckham was a little bit hobbled.
I saw some potential a report saying that which could have
been an act, but van Jefferson hasn't been below. 90, 90
percent route rate in any of the last four games has been at 96
percent overall, basically on par with Cooper cups. 97 percent
And is that what you mean, eight targets per game over the last
three games? So, Jefferson.
I think, almost what this, they wanted to Sean Jackson to be but
slightly better and that's why they got rid of DeSean Jackson.
But In any case. I think you should be confident
playing either Jefferson or Beckham as a flex because they
both have, I think a pretty high ceiling assuming that back
amazed actually healthy going into the week.
Okay, the last situation here for the wide receiver position
is the Ravens wide receiver position and this is a little
less less optimistic. At least if you're a Rashad
abatement fan and I know a lot of people here are even though
they want maybe not originally. So over the last four weeks,
which is when Sammy Watkins return from injury.
We're overall refract, pavement has some really solid numbers.
He's running around 61% of drawbacks as a 1.1 racer, 13
percent Target share averaging about five targets per game.
But that all changed. this past week again, he was at 60% routes
run or above in the last in the three weeks before.
Sydney from weeks, nine to 11. Rashad Bateman was at 65% route,
freight run or above. We taught me was that 56% and
then back down to 38 percent in week 13.
So a pretty steep decline as targets that dropped as well
going from six and week 3:49 to just one this past week.
Again, it's a situation where you would hope that the better
player would sort of bear out and get the targets.
Bateman had 111 are yards in week 9 but hasn't been above 70
yards in any other game. Granted, it's not like those
deep targets are going to Sammy Watkins, he hasn't been above 65
area hours in his four games, since returning.
And it's one of those situations where They're just sort of
splitting the targets between between those two guys and not
necessarily giving one a big opportunity.
But Devin du vernay also continues to be mildly involved
as well. He's had targets of four six,
two and three over the last four weeks, which again, doesn't
sound like a lot. But for an offense that like I
mentioned earlier is not passing it a ton.
It can mean a lot and it does mean a lot especially from a
traditionally or historically, very efficient passer in Lamar
Jackson. Now Hollywood, Brown is still
fine. He only had seven Targets in the
game this past week, but that was of that after four straight
games of, at least of double-digit targets.
So, Richard Bateman goes back to someone who I'm not trusting in
my Flex quite yet, because again, I would want to see, I
would want to see the consistent, you know, more
routes, more targets, more everything.
Especially in an offense. That's not passing it that much.
This is one of the more condensed offenses with Marquis
Brown in, Mark, Andrews, sort of leaving the way.
But after that, it gets pretty, pretty murky.
A couple little final notes on the wide receiver position.
Elijah more Corey Davis is going to be out for the season so
he'll see a huge boost to get 201 are yards and 0.9 Whopper in
week 13, both the highest of the week.
Over the last two weeks, John diggle points out behind, Corey
Davis with him being out. He's been at 87% of snaps at
32%, Target of share routes one, a 91% of drawbacks, which is
obviously Elite. The big concern is he said, he
says a clock. It is sweet but it's Zach Wilson
played very much like Drew lock but Elijah more.
Now primed for that late-season break up just in time for the
ship chasing crew to hit its stride again.
I mention con Amore at the top of the show, DeAndre Hopkins,
did one a route on 85 percent drop back seemed healthy.
Only had two catches in the game.
So he's back to I guess a full workload.
Again, the just want to see the pass attempts, go up for the
team. And finally DeVante Parker
returned is well played. Excuse me, render out on 3245.
Drop backs had five targets for 12 percent Target, share and
hold it in 62. Receiving yards on on those five
targets. So, so I would return Not that
worried about Jalen water but want to talk about another one
of their teammates. Mr. Mica Sicky who continues to
have just a really solid season over the this is over the last
five games for Mike to Sticky. He's averaging six point, seven
targets per game, has a 19 percent Target, share 22,
percent Target area. I'd share 0.43 Whopper running
around an 81% of drawbacks. This is all second on the team
behind And Jaylen, waddle. And is averaging -4 fantasy
points over expectation. Per game.
So he could be in a prime position when they returned from
by to have a solid week. He had a season.
Excuse me, second highest Mark of the season with 11 Targets in
week 13. This rocks, did drop back down
to 77 percent after hitting 90 percent in week 12, but that's
still encouraging to see with DeVante Parker back.
Did have a seat Ian, hi 0.32 targets per outrun in week
three, but again, the issue is that he's also scored two
touchdowns this season hasn't scored since week 7.
So hopefully can find the end zone when they return.
From there. They're sweet by sure.
It's going to be terrible down there in Miami.
Someone who's also hasn't scored.
Excuse me who hasn't scored in a while that I'm much more
concerned about is Kyle pits. Since Calvin, Ridley left, who
again shot the him. Hope he's doing well.
Doing better mentally. Seems like he won't be returning
this season but hope he's getting the help, he needs.
But in any case since Calvin Ridley left, it's been six
weeks. Pictures, averaging, six, six
point, three targets per game, still good for a 21 percent
Target, share and leads the team with a 32% area.
I'd share is wanting a route on 86% of drawbacks.
But hasn't found the end zone in any of those six games.
As the -3.4 fantasy points are expectation and is tight, end 17
in that stretch averaging about seven, PPR points.
Per game. So it's kind of crazy because he
blew up in weeks 5 and 7. And then everyone you know and
then Calvin Ridley left and everyone was super excited and
he just hasn't excuse me been given the same opportunity
hasn't had more than seven Targets in the game since then
hasn't had more than 90 areas in a single game.
Again, still running around out on a very high percent of drop
backs, but it's just he's not. Finding the end zone and is only
averaging about 40, receiving yards per game because he's not
getting super efficient. Target.
So, it's interesting because so I posted a threat on Twitter
this afternoon about starts to decisions right now and like
what do you do with someone like Kyle pits because He has a
ceiling. We've seen that and he's a
writer. He's a really good player.
And the opportunity is there. I mean, 66 targets for a tight
end per game is a solid Mark for sure.
But, the Falcons offense has not been.
All that inspiring this season. So would you rather have cop?
It's who get as that ceiling. But Certainly doesn't have much
of a floor either or someone like Tire Coughlin who I believe
is tied and six over the last six weeks.
Has some opportunity opening up for him in Minnesota and has a
couple of games over 15 PPR points.
So has a relatively high ceiling at least for a tight hat And so
a lot of it comes down. I think to what I mentioned in
this threat, the mental aspect of it is can you stomach been
seeing someone like hot pits and then having him go off on your
bench? This goes back to a trade
question. I got a couple weeks ago and
someone was between two two trades and Because he had two
tight ends and one of which was cockpits and someone was asking
for the other the other side and it's like a trade, the other
side of town and away like you're never going to not start
pits. And I believe that other side
and was Pat fry removed. And and and obviously Eric Ebron
has been hurt but that might be changing now, like I'd probably
rather Starfire motive if Iran was out.
And not playing. But in any case, if complex is
your only tight end, I'm not going to the waiver wire and
trying to find a replacement. That's way too drastic for me.
But expectations certainly stood.
And I think happen, Tap temper at this point.
Another stat from Daigle getting a lot of screen time here today
but 47 players have seen at least 33 Target since week
eight. But Kyle picks is the only one
who has recorded, just one Red Zone Target in that span.
So again, this not getting the high-value targets from Matt
Ryan. Final thing Depot, Samuel was
out this week, George kidal just blasted off against the Seahawks
at 12 targets for a for Two percent Target share. 47% of the
team's Area Arts, share random, 28 of 32 Dropbox, and had to
back field snacks as well. So great, great, great to see
George. Kittle back paying off for
Fantasy drafters. Realized I forgot to switch over
to the tight end the week 13 chart, but you can see George
Kittle. Absolutely.
Crushing here. I think you probably be might
end one for the rest of the season.
Okay, wrapping the show up with two Team level conversations,
the first of which is for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Hinder us from Jake stays online to talk about the Bengals pass
catchers and we'll get to them. Here shortly.
But want to talk about the whole team as I always do and
Unfortunately, the Bengals are back on their bullshit before
the four weeks before their by, they were at a five percent pass
rate or expectation. But since then in the three
weeks after their by their at a negative 5% so borough is
averaging just 31 attempts per game.
Only has three passing touchdowns has three
interceptions in that span averaging, just 14.
PPR points per game. A 3%, excuse me, touchdown
rates. And It he just doesn't have as
high of a ceiling because he hasn't been that efficient
hasn't been dusted rested yards per attempt of about six yards.
And unfortunately, his receivers are not helping him out.
Excuse me, that much, is it 0.82?
Pacer which is incredibly low for a quarterback and don't know
if I mentioned this but has a 14, PPR Point per game average
in those three games he does have a 6.2 percent completion
percentage over expectation so still completing passes at a
pretty high rate but If you been carrying two quarterbacks, I
think there might be better options available at the
position. As far as the running back
position. We know again, they've been
running the ball more of their been very comfortable with Joe
Mixon mix-ins. Averaging over 25 carries per
game over the last three weeks. Has 78 percent of the running
back touches in that span is averaging, 19, expected fantasy
points per game and has recorded a touchdown in leave.
Its nine straight games. Yes, nine straight games just
absolutely crushing. It has only been above 100
rushing yards twice this season and two of those came in weeks
11 and 12. So it's certainly and part of
that is because of the volume for sure.
Why he still is just not getting a ton of passing work.
He's a, he's just five targets total in his last three games.
The only other thing that I'll mention about this backfield is
that smudgy perine. I'm fairly confident.
Is the handcuffed to own in that backfield?
I think. Now is the time where you want
to be targeting Handcuffs if it's not your own then certainly
of other players. So he's been, he was out of 34
percent snap rate in week. 13 has hovered around 30% all year.
Has seen boost in snap rate when mixed in has gone down.
So, certainly someone to keep an eye on but getting to the
important part, the pass catchers of Jonesboro because I
think people are worried about Jamar Chase.
And, you know, I've been saying it for weeks, those drops are
going to come back to haunt them for going to come back.
I've been saying this literally for 200 weeks, just saying the
drops aren't getting, but they sort of happen.
He's only averaging 41 receiving yards in his last three games,
and his production has come at the expense of T Hagan's.
Just absolutely crushing it over the last couple weeks.
Averaging 19, PPR points per game as a 28 percent Target,
share 43% area. Are share a 0.69 of Whopper 14,
expected points, 14.8 expected points per game, averaging over
eight targets per game, this continues to be one of the more
condensed passing a tax. Which is really, really good.
Both Boyd and Chase are added. Nineteen percent Target share
over the last three weeks. Since their by Chase, still has
a an edge in area are share at 28%.
But again, the drops You Dropped a long, what would have been
touchdown? And his numbers have dropped a
little bit since before the Bible for the by Hughes option,
eight targets per game. excuse me, back down to 5.7 in week 3
and His way to targets per run, has gone from 0.65 down to 0.43.
They're still all running about on a very high percentage of
drawbacks chase at 96%, Higgins at 92%.
And then, Ty Borden and CJ Osama, who I should mention 85%
as well. Who's on, what did have six
Targets? This past week, which was tied
for a season high for him, Hagen's had At 14 targets, which
is just the third time that he's been in double digits, but was
his second most of the season and Higgins.
Again, I mentioned the area Arts but Higgins has over 100 Area
Arts in five of his last six games.
While Jamar, Chase has been at Well, I've been at 30 or below
in two of us. Last five has been at an 85 or
below in three of his last five. So this is not I would not be
worried about Jamar Chase. I think things will turn around.
I hope that the Bangles turn around and pass it more again,
like they were before the by, I think they got scared off a
little bit after the The Chargers loss assume, you know,
the Jeff Schloss sort of thinking them.
But Tyler boy continued, its he still sort of the third fiddle
here. He he's always been second or
third and in targets and Target share, doesn't command a large
percent of the area are share and doesn't have a receiving
touchdown since returning from the by.
So, It's you know, it's a matter of to of Jamar Chase not scoring
as many touchdowns, he has just one touchdown since the buy-in
was averaging point. Eight touchdowns per game before
the by. So those will turn around.
I'm not worried in your ear happy if you have to watch a
swan your receivers, but Let's wrap things up here.
With the Detroit Lions. Congratulations to the Detroit
Lions and Jared Goff for winning.
Their first game of the season against the Minnesota Vikings
and it's funny I reflected back on something.
I said earlier this season that Jared Goff could potentially be
a really solid fantasy quarterback because he was had
so much volume. And You know, he was being, you
wasn't being super efficient, but he was getting the volume in
that just obviously has not been the case hasn't been efficient.
Throwing the ball on on the season but since they're
weeknight by I've been pretty good averaging.
One point seven touchdowns for game about 30 attempts per game
as a 5.6% touchdown Ray 27.1 adjusted yards per attempt.
But again that's only helped him get about 12 and a half PPR
points per game. And they have just committed to
the Run even more on the season. They have a negative 5% password
over expectation. That's the Lions but since
they're by the right - eleven percent so it's a they certainly
are committed to the run and who's been the benefactor of
that. It's been the running backs.
Or has it. So DeAndre Swift was out this
past week, missed most of the Thanksgiving game in week 12.
And a lot of people thought this was going to be the Jamaal
Williams show but it was it was not.
He only played the 47% of snaps and Godwin igwe bouquet.
Hopefully I'm pronouncing that right heading season-high. 39%
snack. Break Jamar Jefferson Down at
just 11% and hasn't been above 20% at all this season.
And the notable thing here as well, in addition to snaps is
that equal bouquet ran around on 58% of drawbacks, which is the
highest Mark for any non Swift running back?
In on the Lions this season, he did only get four opportunities,
and Jamaal Williams got 18 yet, 20 week 12.
So, he still getting the majority of the work and is
being used when he is on the field. but equate bouquet,
someone certainly to keep an eye out and if he's on your waiver
wire definitely worth an ad because it looks like he has
probably Eclipse germar Jefferson as the Handcuff I
handcuffed to the Handcuff if you will and we're not sure how
long Swift is going to be out as well.
So something to keep an eye on In that backfield.
But I want to talk quickly to again to round out the show
about the pass catchers for the lines because they are going to
continue to have to pass the ball, a decent amount and I'm on
Rossi Brown. Looks like now, he is the wide
receiver one for the Lions. He had a season High Hi 12
Targets in the game, the highest Mark for any any pass catcher, I
believe any wide receiver tight end at least in a game this
season renter out on 100% of drawbacks has been above 80% in
every game. Since week 6 has been above 90
percent in each of the last three weeks and as Willie coming
on in his last, Four games has a 24 percent Target, share a 0.49,
weighted targets per outrun and is averaging over 11 expected
points per game. Right on par with his 11.7, PPR
points per game. So someone to potentially
consider in DFS again worth and add ink as a potential Flex
option. TJ Hawkinson has bounced up and
down. Quite a bit.
He it's been a little weird for him since the by over the last
four weeks. This is the number of targets.
He's had these ever one week time which was really weird.
Then he had eight and week 11 3 and week 12 and 8 again in week
13. So he still has an 18 percent
Target share over that span. Averaging five targets per game,
but clearly does not have a ceiling that he had before the
buyer when he was averaging. You know, eight plus targets per
game and seems like the focal part of the offense still
running around on 88% of drop backs and Actually, led the team
s in the team in area, ards in a week, 13, with 88.
Just behind the 94, Amon-Ra st. Brown.
And last thing I'll say about same brown two points, point
two, seven, three targets per outrun.
Was His Highest Mark of the season, so he's getting used
when he's on the field and the lines seem to like them.
I know there was some coach speak, or I guess Cuba speak
earlier this season about golf pointing to Get him more
involved and that looks to be coming, true?
That is going to do it for the show today.
Hope you all enjoyed it and learned some new stuff that will
help you in your matchups this week.
Be sure to tune in to the show tomorrow night, 9:15 p.m.
Eastern. As always, I will be back here
at 3:15 p.m. central next week. Good luck stat.
That