All right, today on ship chasing no roasts, although who knows,
maybe we'll find someone to roast by the end of the show.
Now we are going to start to pivot our mindset a little from
basketball brain to redraft manage leagues.
If you guys are like us, we are starting to set our eyes on some
of our high stakes leagues. Obviously these involve waivers
and trades in an entirely different set of ways to think
about winning. So we're going to kind of
discuss through some of those. Also, we'll compare some of the
the underdog ADP to some of the high stakes ADP as well and see
where things might be varying because of those format
differences. So this is ship chasing with
Pete, Ben and Pat. Let's do it.
Pat Fryer, Helmo. This is why.
This is why I'm hot. Anita Handjob.
Fix your sight. Jamar.
Alpha play, chase are. You kidding me?
You. Can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finding this voice.
You're right. Oh, what am I doing?
Where are we at here? I got to get Pat on stage.
Does this do it? Is that there he.
Is always shows up right before the intro.
It's pretty good, right? It's a good trip.
It's. A good trip.
Yeah, slightly earlier start time.
I got AI got a 18 month checkup appointment for April here later
this afternoon. So I appreciate everyone
accommodating me. We also just need to do a little
postmortem on last week's roast show that ended up being a a
mega hit. Sparked a beef.
It's sparked a beef that trickled over to Twitter Post
Twitter videos back and forth on ADP Chase.
They got swellcast pretty. Incredible.
I love that we literally pulled up a picture of Davis's stream,
roasted it, and that wasn't the beef that was started beef.
Beef was actually between Kitchen and JJ.
Incredible stuff. We might have to.
I mean, our schedule's going to obviously get pretty busy here
with all of our, our draft streams and stuff, but man, we
might have to make time for one more.
Maybe we could do like a, a late night or like a an after party
after one of the draft streams. It it roasts some teams at some.
That would be that would be very good.
That would be very good. Steph is Steph is the only
person in the world who gets excited for waivers.
Yeah, we last year, for people who don't know, we, we tapped
Stephanie to be point guard on all of our waivers across all of
our leagues. It made not only the teams
better, it made our lives better.
It improved our relationships, our morale, our relationships
with God. It basically just had an entire
what, 80? It has been elevating
everything. We talk about a rising tide.
Yeah, definitely. It's the rising tide.
So Steph, hopefully you're you're going nowhere this year
because otherwise, no more, no more redraft leagues.
Never going back. But yeah, I thought it would be
fun to kind of talk through both like specific players and ADP
stuff, but also kind of macro things because it is really hard
to turn off your basketball brain.
Like even Gretch, I've been listening to your guys's great
projection pod with Leonie and seeing year over year how much
like best ball stuff then even leads into that.
And it's like, not even, it's not bad.
It's just like it's almost, it's so omnipresent and how we talk
about fantasy football now that it it is kind of hard to to
switch it up. Well, I mean, we talked about
last season how it was sort of burying dynasty, dynasty.
And I think it definitely did bury dynasty for like the the
key way we talked about fantasy in the offseason like 5-10 years
ago. That was there was best ball
back then, but it was still like, you know, dynasty and all
that. But we spend most of the
offseason structuring the way that we talk about fantasy
football as a hobby around best ball.
Like the a lot of time, right? It's not the Pat just took
himself off the street. He's like nodding along and then
he's gone. But yeah, I mean, like, there's
a lot of time and a lot of conversations baked around that
exact topic. So I mean.
Yeah, I, yeah, I've just finished and filed a piece for
for Fantasy Life. And even like even the
differences between what we're going to mainly be focused on
with like high stakes ADP, you know, over on FPC is really
different from the ESPN and Yahoo ADP's.
Obviously you got the tight end premium difference, but like,
you know, over on, you know, FPC like the rookies are going to
be, yeah, slightly less than they are on underdog, but still
like, you know, decently valued. Whereas on ESPN they're just
like complete afterthoughts. Like Elite Neighbors is going in
like the sixth or seventh round of of ESPN drafts right now.
So even that like is something you have to consider if people
are gearing up for home leagues with buddies.
Yeah, the environments are very different.
And then as underdog moves more and more towards receiver, you
know that is only going to get more and more different because
I, I don't expect that a lot of these other formats and a lot of
these other platforms will move in that direction as
aggressively. So they're just like, you know,
with the pockets of the draft and you know which players you
have to prioritize when starts to get more and more different.
Let it you know that's putting aside the the differences that
you want to be thinking about because of the format.
So what are what are the things like top of your mind right now?
I feel like the one thing that always, and I think is the
trickiest for us is we know with the redraft stuff we want to
take the biggest possible swings, like specifically at the
onesies as well because we know the safety net is there for the
waiver wire. The difference between like
what's going to be the Titan 12 and the guy we get on the
waivers isn't going to be that great, but if we hit on Sam
Laporta, that's going to supercharge our teams.
I think the thing we always have to balance is we sometimes we go
so many rookies because they are often the best pick in every
round. But then that can lead to
sputtering starts and like balancing that dynamic of
wanting to swing for the fences but knowing like, yeah, we are
going to need sub early season production as well.
That's definitely part of it. I think, you know, thinking
through like the best ball profile, you know, to some
extent kind of, you know, prioritizing like in a weird
way, you know, we've talked about better than best ball type
of stuff, but in a weird way, like it's those kind of more
steady profiles, especially at running back that I'm more
interested in in best ball and are also cheaper on underdog
than they will be on FFPC. So like, I don't know, like, you
know, Alan Kamara, I don't like taking even on underdog, but
like if he falls and I need a running back and I'm like he's
going to help Phil Weeks. Sure, but I just pulled up the
on fantasy mojo. I pulled up the the Fantasy Pros
Championship. ADP Kamara's going the pick 52
like. Yeah, middle of the fifth round.
Just absolutely not like I and you know, I don't care about
like filling weeks at running back in redraft where is like
there is some value to filling weeks in baseball.
You don't you don't get the wave wire.
You you don't get to, you know, change your team in any way.
So just having a dude on there is going to play a lot of weeks.
You know, like I don't I think still think it's a terrible
pick, but Fareed had Alexander Madison on his on his winning
roster. Like you can get away with kind
of these these weak filling running back selections in best
ball in a way. I think you really really want
to avoid drafting like that in managed, and they tend to be
more expensive in managed, so that makes it easier to avoid
them. Yeah, when you brought up this
topic, Pete, I mean, I was like, I'm I'm just going to be playing
the hits with anything that I talk about on this episode, like
Pat just said, like it's running back dead zone.
It's all that stuff. But we get the dead zone back
then. Dead zone is very much back.
I don't want to draft any dead zone backs in in managed.
I think for all the reasons you just said, you can make
exceptions in basketball, but it's still difficult to take
those picks in basketball. When we just did our our show a
couple weeks ago about the players that were afraid of not
having a lot of exposure to, we all picked running backs from
that range, right? Like or at least one.
We were like, there's some guys here that we can't really get to
structurally, but I think you can you can justify some of
those picks in basketball for the reasons you said.
You can't replace the running backs on the waiver wire.
You can't do the Frankenstein running back thing as easily
throughout the season. You can't have that revolving
door you your roster stuck. And so the small win type
running back is way better in best ball.
It is way more viable the whatever it is.
Like I think Isaiah Pacheco's probably a small win at best or
Josh Jacobs. I mean, you said Alvin Camara,
any of those guys, but I'd go even to higher profile guys in
Camara as examples where that type of production maybe not
super replaceable. Yeah, I still think it's
probably replaceable in basketball this year.
But in managed like it's so much more replaceable like because
you you can actually play the wafer wire.
And the argument I made in a recent write up that we talked
about a little last week and then and Sean and I on Sin
Bananas did a big breakdown of the of the dead zone this week
in a couple different episodes. The argument that I've made in a
couple of those places is it's the same idea of, you know,
because there aren't as many of Mexico going high.
It's pushing down the value for the zero RB types.
But that there are so many offenses where we're not even
like they're going to have running back points where we're
not even drafting the art, the first running back until the
double digit rounds. And there's some good ones.
The Denver backfield, the Chargers backfield, the Cowboys
are a really good fast-paced offense that are going to score
touchdowns. Their backfield, the Browns
backfield, because of Nick Chubb, there's definitely going
to be running back points from the double digit round.
So when you think about how you're going to be able to
replace this stuff in a managed league, when you're able to
actually see what happens with Nick Chubb, see what happens
with Zeke and Dowdle and that stuff, maybe you want to take
shots on those types of players because you can cut them.
Like I would actually be more open to taking a Zeke in a in a
managed league. Like I don't know, maybe he
looks spry in the first couple of weeks.
Probably not, but you can at least cut him if.
I'm less interested in taking Zeke 'cause I 'cause I'm just
like, I don't know, he's gonna catch like 6 passes one week and
it'll hit my line up and I don't have to think about it.
But. To Ben's point, if you got the
Zeke on the paths down the stretch last year to open up the
season on a really true zero RB squad for you would just be
doing. What if he hits A20 touch
outcome this year? There's there's scenarios where
it's him or Dowdell is like a 20 touch back or at.
Least see, I'm, I'm way well, I'm already very interested in
Dowdell, but like, so what's interesting is Zeke on this in
this ADP, he's at 10-9, which is a little bit above Dowdell's at
12 three, which I think is pretty close, or at least that's
kind of like where I take it. So maybe it's a little ahead,
but but you're getting, I think you get the, sometimes the
upside doesn't get priced up as much as the projected touches.
And so which I love because then you can, you can take bigger
cracks on the upside, which is what you want.
So the thing you want more in the format is sometimes cheaper
than the thing you don't. Like Zeke was a really bad
point. The point was the backfields
that don't have any running backs that are going high and
that are going to have points in the backfield.
The the running back scoring pie for Dallas is going to be large.
It's. Going to be large, Yeah, I
agree. And we don't know.
I mean, it might not be the highest in the in the overall
league. I think the Broncos might be up
there, the Browns and the Chargers might be up there.
So those are better examples. Commodified is a better example
for this point. Like if you hit on that he.
Could be the starter, yeah, he could be the star.
You know, really good one. Yeah, and if he's Rashad Penny,
he's gone. So.
We we know this from years of doing the so like Fidel, right
Fidel goes in the one 50s on underdog.
He's at 139 here JK Dobbins goes one pick behind him.
He goes very you know, I think he's in like one 70s on
underdog. So let.
Me pull this up, yeah. Yeah.
I had the grid from rotavist here.
One thing we know from doing these drafts over the years is
that they're more running back heavy in terms of when the
running backs go early, but they're also more running back
heavy in terms of how many running backs people take.
So you can't just like sit back in the pocket and wait for
running backs to be there for you in round 891011 and 12.
Like if you just want to like hit running back real hard in
that pocket, they will be there for you in eight and nine and
maybe 10. And then it's like potentially
over or you're already moving to like a different type of bet.
When you look at this visual, the sixth round, Aaron Jones,
Amir White and James Conner are all going ahead of Keenan Allen.
Like that's very different. The the other thing going back
to Ben's point about like small wins is so small wins are are
the opposite outcome for players who are either small wins or
small losses. And small losses in redraft
often fall into the bucket of roster cloggers or paths.
Call them the silent killer. That's actually the most
terrifying thing, and it's why like zero RB and redraft, it's
kind of nice because a lot of times your team is so starved
for production that a small loss can still serve its utility for
you at running back where you're like, I'll take those 7 1/2
points from Naheem Heinz on this team where I'm loaded everywhere
else. But if you have that balance
roster with a bunch of small wins, small losses like they're
not good enough to start, but they're not bad enough to cut.
And then you're just in this like paralyzed like cycle of not
being able to chase the good stuff on the waiver wire because
you know you have 0 certainties at any positions in your roster.
And I, I think that's also an argument for someone in the chat
mentioned elite onesies is another part of this of the like
dead zone conversation in managed.
It's, it's harder to replace elite onesies that hit.
And you know, like, I understand the best ball argument of like,
oh, I can take 3 quarterbacks and I can all the spike weeks
hit my lineup and I can create a facsimile of, of an elite
quarterbacks production. Or if I, if I really get lucky
and, and you know, people think you can do that at tight end as
well. I think it's harder at tight end
personally, but the fact that you can just plug in Jalen Hurts
every single game is matters more in, in managed and, and
certainly I think the it's true for the elite tight ends as
well. And so then you get back to
thinking about like, well, what can I do through the 1st 7
rounds of a draft? Like if I'm taking a detour, I
mean, I'm I'm still willing to take the elite legendary upside
type running backs in the first two rounds, right, But you.
Got to pay up one Yashan's going one O 3.
It's crazy, but if I'm if I'm taking a detour in 345, like
it's not going to be Rashad White in round four guys like I
just I can't, I mean, if if it's not a receiver because I hate
the pocket, I'm not taking Rashad White over Stefan Diggs,
which we're looking at here, but if I'm.
If I'm if. I'm not taking a receiver for
whatever reason. Then I'd rather the detour was
Josh Allen, QB won or you know, if it's a little bit earlier,
one of those tight ends or you know, George Kittle or or
whatever, if you're in the fourth round.
But like once you get 456 like I don't know how you can ever
justify those running back pits. And and that's why I like
looking at this board here, audio listeners, apologies, but
on the on the video, we have the draft grid.
This is all it's pulling in main event and football guys drafts
ADP. So a good kind of representation
of the landscape. To me, it makes rounds two and
three kind of the sweet spot to get one of your detours.
Obviously you got the elite tight ends all going here.
You also have backs like JT, Kyren, 8 Chan, all include Gibbs
there since he's at the 1-2 turn.
And then you look at the round four wide receivers.
Those are all the round three wide receivers on underdog Debo,
neighbors, Metcalf, Devante, DJ. So it's like.
Debo is like a round two. Like, he's like the one, he's
the 208, right? Like.
So to me it is like knowing how that stuff works, like I, I
think I'm probably going to end up wanting one of the tight ends
or an elite running back out of round two or three in in most of
these drafts. I hear what you're saying, but
at the same time you're able to get, you know, a bunch of
receivers. You know, like there's no way on
underdog that you could get Justin Jefferson, Marvin
Harrison in like Jalen Waddle or something like that, right?
Or, you know, that you could get Jamar Chase, Crystal Lavey and
Nico Collins. True.
Like, that's pretty exciting. But then do the that is
exciting. But then do the 2V twos with
like, because round eight, you're going to want to take JSN
and and and Xavier Worthy, right?
Round seven you're going to want to take Jaden Reed round, you
know, round nine you're getting Roma.
Two, but I think round seven, Jaden Reed versus round three,
Jaylen Waddle. I want round 3.
Jaylen Waddle. Yeah, well, but think, think,
think about how we've been talking about round two and
three wide receivers where it's like, order them however you
want. You can make a case for Marvin
Harrison there. You can make a case for
neighbors there, blah, blah. And then it's like, OK, am I
gonna take Marvin Harrison off the board here?
I'm gonna, am I gonna grab McBride?
Well, Kincaid. Yeah, Kelsey McBride, that's the
tight end I think is pretty enticing here where FFPC, we
don't normally just see no tight ends in the first round and then
kind of like, Oh yeah, I guess we'll grab a few in the second
round. Like the tight end detour is is
pretty exciting to me in the second round I do agree with.
That I, I, I like your point. I think every path in the first
couple rounds seems appealing because it, it does seem
appealing to get an anchor running back when you're like, I
definitely don't want to be taking him to dead zone.
Obviously the elite tight end is appealing and I think that the
the receiver point you just made is very appealing.
The question for me is then what do you want to be doing from 4
through 9? And like, to me, it's just like,
I don't want to don't be doing anything but drafting those
receivers. Like if my question is Rashad
White versus DJ Moore, Stefan Diggs, if it's Zamir White
versus Keenan Allen, if it's, you know, Taija Spears versus
Xavier Worthy at that point, like I want to have we get the
rookies at the old rookie prices like the Justin Jefferson rookie
year, Garrett Wilson rookie. Year stuff.
I mean one of the things that I think.
Rome's in round nine like Rome's in. 9/1 of the things.
That pick in round nine, we did. We did this before.
One of the things I think is happening this year is there's a
lot of people emphasizing that the dead zone hit last year and
they just think the dead zone doesn't exist anymore and
they're not paying attention to the years of data prior that
show why the dead zone existed. And, and, and my main response
to that, because I've gotten these comments on Twitter, my
main response is like, well, I mean, I don't know what to tell
you other than I was saying that we should be drafting running
backs in the dead zone. Last year we were saying on the
show, we did it on all our bills.
It was really effective last year.
And it's because of the profiles that were in the dead zone, the
hits out of the dead zone historically from back when I
did that research initially are rookie second year players that
the market doesn't understand like what they are yet from a
longer view profile perspective. We're guys like Pollard who are
who are flashing a high end talent but they're in split back
fields. Right, He can be, but like it's
guys that will be first rounders the next year.
Breece Hall and Jameer Gibbs were unique dead zone options
last year. Travis Etienne fit that as well.
He's still, you know, like he's somewhere in between now.
Anybody hit in a pretty big way? And there were other names there
too, Javonte, James Cook, etcetera, that didn't
necessarily hit in the same way. That group that we had last year
was unique. That's not what the profiles in
the dead zone this year are. I just want to emphasize that
just because the data says that round 45 running backs hit last
year doesn't change change the fact that we have a lot of dead
zone information from prior years and that last year's
profiles in the dead zone were very unique.
They're not unique like that this year.
It's very different. The other.
Check goes a little bit. I'm torn up a check because he's
on such a good offense and he has no competition.
He is dead Zony in certain ways, but what's your thought?
I think he's I. Think he's actually pretty dead
Zony because it truly is. Rookies are second year guys and
if we the idea is we don't know how good the player is yet.
We've got two year sample from Pacheco and I think the market
knows how good he is and the market saying the situation's
fantastic and we're going to draft him high because of
guaranteed volume and no backup and all these things.
But we don't trust him enough to push him into the 2nd or the
1st. That's when you get the market
telling you that we actually think this player adds
efficiency to a situation and he's a superstar.
The market is telling you when they leave him in, in round
three and this and in round four and five and the other stuff,
they don't think he adds to his situation and we have a big
enough sample after two years. He would surprise me.
He could be like the Josh Jacobs where the efficiency takes
another step up. But his efficiency has been good
by the way as well. But I think that's largely
because of how. It's been good, not amazing.
Yeah, yeah. The thing I would say too, and I
I agree, you can certainly make the case for just hammering wide
receiver, but like I know kind of the path that puts us down
and it's a fun path. It involves a ton of Brock
Bowers, it involves a ton of Jane Daniels.
It involves a ton of 0 RB teams. But I do who want to have like
some of those two V twos, like looking at this board here,
like, yes, can you have Nico Collins and Brock Bowers?
Like, yeah, that sounds very fun.
But I also want to have a Mark Andrews, Keenan Allen, you know,
like I want to flip those in in play some of those pockets.
And it's just like after round two and three and we we're going
to want to have some George Kittle too, like this price
looks exploitable here in the fifth round relative to some of
these other guys. I mean going well after Evan
Ingram. So I think we just want to play
around with it a bit because there's so many fun ways to
attack. This The chat's asking what
board is this? I guess I'm not entirely sure.
I know it's FFPC. Is it the fantasy pros or the
early main events? I have it on fantasy pros and
main event for this is on Rotaviz.
They have a draft grid here and just an easy way to kind of
display this. So this is manage leagues on
FFPC 2 running back, 2 receiver, two flex, tight end, premium and
the running backs are getting pushed up.
Even with the premium tight ends.
The running backs are getting pushed up because the tight ends
are getting pushed up too. I mean, Jake Ferguson's a fifth
round pick in this format, yeah. The I mean, so the running
backs, you know, obviously I like Jalen Warren a lot.
Jonathan Brooks I like a lot. They're not that much more
expensive than they are on underdog.
Whereas a lot of the guy, you know, a lot of the pocket there
is priced up significantly. Like Samir White is in the 6th,
James Conner in the 6th, Aaron Jones in the 6th through Madre
Stevenson starts the 6th. So we said Camaros in the 5th,
but like there are a few running backs in that kind of sweet spot
here that I, that I think are very strong targets.
Javonte's still going pretty late in the 9th.
That's that's pretty nice. So I think you probably do want
to hit running back a couple times.
You want to be more selective, but hit it a couple times.
I still like Brian Robinson in the in the 8th, 9th, you know,
in this format. I actually think there's more
upside there. Anytime you can take Brian
Robinson over the guy who one pick ahead of the guy who broke
the combine 40 record and plays with Patrick Mahomes and they
traded up in the first round to draft him, I mean, I well.
That's that's not, that's not something I would argue for, but
but I do, I do think like there's there's some guys here
with profiles that I'm like, this feels pretty good for the
price. But yeah, it's just going to be
like the opportunity cost at wide receiver just is going to
feel harder, you know, more more costly in like every round is
really because they're just not priced up as high.
Yeah, yeah. And I think and that's what
that's what's going to be really hard.
Like like round eight does seem like really hard.
I mean, this is such a sick spot for these running backs.
You got Jalen Warren, Zach Moss, Tony Pollard, Tajae Spears,
Brian Robinson. You have Xavier Worthy, JSN,
Jordan Addison and then you do I we probably will not necessarily
being on the tight ends in this range, but that is like you're
going to feel the push pull of like, man, I really like these
wide receivers. Same with the 9th Rome, Brian
Thomas, but then you're looking at Trey Benson, Blake Corum,
Javonte. Like I, I feel like those are
going to be the ones that put us in a blender where you're like,
I wish we had three picks in this well.
You know, I have thought about this on underdog where I'm
drafting a lot of teams that and and Jacob Sanderson had a really
good article a couple days ago where he was kind of making the
devil's advocate case that maybe we are overvaluing wide
receiver, even though he doesn't really fully believe that.
But like what if we are? How should we play it?
And kind of making the case for like more builds.
At least the way I my take away from it was like, I've probably
not doing enough builds that are like just kind of classic 0
running back builds, but where I just like hit running back as
hard as I would have as I didn't love the profiles and play to
have running back more in the flex.
So, you know, I've got like 5 running backs frowned like, you
know, 7 to 11 or whatever. And that though, that idea has
made me feel like, God, I end up, if I do that, I end up with
a lot of profiles that aren't kind of traditional 0 running
back profiles. They're very like touch based
profiles, almost dead zone. They're, they're dead zone,
they're cheap. They're, they're cheap dead zone
backs. It wouldn't wouldn't it be more
fun just because the way I like to do things, wouldn't it
wouldn't I have more fun going like with some of these more
chaotic, you know, anti fragile running back profiles, and maybe
this is how we how we do that. We're like, what if we go like
true 0 running back here with like a Chardonnay, You know,
honestly, I'm back in on Zeke is your Zeke point.
Now I'm in. You can you can you could get
it. I was never in.
I was saying even. Yeah, I was never in.
I want to be clear. Ty Chandler, Rico Dowdle,
Marshawn Lloyd. Right Like these?
These are the profiles that 0 running back was sort of built
on Videl. Stand alone and some upside is
kind of what you're. Yeah, yeah, these profiles are
still pretty cheap. Like you could start in round 10
and tack on probably three of them through like round round
12, you know? I've I've not been big on Julian
Mclaughlin's ability to actually get a large workload, but he to
me, he's going to have some standalone value.
Yeah, I agree. I like.
McLaughlin, yeah, he's the back in the day like Pete just
mentioned that he minds a little bit back in the day we do those
receiving backs, they don't really exist as much anymore.
But he's that kind of profile where I don't think there's the
the huge ceiling. I do think he's startable to get
you to the anti fragile bets. Right, right.
Yeah, yeah. So I mean, like, I actually, as
much as I like the, you know, the couple guys in that range,
especially like Warren and Brooks, to me would be like guys
I actually would be willing to take over some of the wide
receiver upside. I'm not.
I promise you now, I will not try to get us to take Brian
Robinson over Xavier Worthy. I'm not going to do it.
Don't worry. Like I'm much more interested in
saying let's take Xavier Worthy as like our wide receiver seven.
Yeah. And I, I usually don't like
going as as wide receiver deep, but I like this point.
And then Pete's point about not liking the OR being in a bind in
round eight, but also not liking the tight ends.
I, it made me even want to do the elite tight end idea even
more because I was like, yeah, I mean, I definitely want to be
taking a running back or receiver in that range.
Visa V not Visa V versus one of these tight ends or like,
especially, you know, the Ferguson or like in Joku prices
in round six. Like I don't want to be making
that tight end pick or feeling like we have to because we don't
have a tight end yet. But that was the reminder when
you said that, Pete, that we always talk about that.
It's not just an FFPC. The elites are pushed up.
It's also that like round 10 tight ends are, are, are way
costlier. Everything is costlier at tight
end and we still are seeing a thing here where there's not
even a first round tight end. And I would argue these are
first round tight end premium profiles.
But again, because there's seven of them, you get him in the
second and third. Like we used to think it was so
cheap to get like Pitts or Mark Andrews at the 2-3 turn when
they were like the tight end two, tight end three those
years. But because there's seven of
them, like Kyle Pitts is going at the end of the third round of
this, like that is appealing to me.
Like I. Want to?
That's very. Appealing.
I want to build that. One and looking at this like I
think my dream start, if I could draw it up, Give me the two hole
here, give me CD Lamb, give me one of these tight ends, Andrews
or Kincaid. Give me a Chan in the early 3rd.
I'll come back and I'll grab flowers.
I'll come back and I'll grab T Higgins.
I will come back and I'll grab Jane Reed.
I'll grab Rashi Rice. I'll grab Xavier Worthy.
I'll grab Brian Thomas or Roma Doonsay.
See, I think I throw in Richardson there.
Richardson's just available in the late 6th.
I think that's I would grab him like over at Jayden Reed and
then push because we know we're getting like worthy in Rome,
like. Yeah.
Yeah, those guys over read, you know we're.
Gonna yeah, the other thing. Then you start to kind of go
with the stacking stuff of like, oh maybe you could also take DAC
in the ninth, maybe the. Actuals.
To the 10th he can get Jane Daniels but I just like looking
at these running backs like the HN seems like the the best price
to me. Best price, yeah, 'cause he's
he's cheaper than on 100 dog. I mean, Sanderson's he's.
The last one worth drafting. Yeah, yeah.
I mean his obviously he's, he's great in all formats.
Like he's, I guess, you know, going to be a little bit more
volatile, but like, you know, and so therefore better in
baseball. Like he will be more volatile
and I guess than better in baseball, but like he's going to
be his ceiling is so high that you just lock him in you you put
him in it's. A certain thing on the
volatility when it's a player that you're just going to start
every week anyway, doesn't matter.
It actually it's better in baseball, but he's still going
to hit your line up. It's not like he's going to miss
your line up and managed. Right, right, right.
Yeah, like you're the amount of points you're leaving on the
table, like isn't that many probably, right?
Yeah. Especially relative to what
other people are doing, you know, like what?
It's not like you're going against best ball rosters.
I like that note, Pete. I, I and you guys have advocated
for this on FFPC since, you know, I first joined you guys
back in. I mean, I started doing this
stuff in late 2020. So we were doing the 2021 draft
season about the idea of getting an anchor running back and an
early tight end in the first like 3 rounds and then kind of
hammering receiver in the dead zone.
It feels like getting back to that structure this year as
well, whether it's a Chan or it's.
Making me so happy, like I'm just going back to stuff.
We can. We can just hammer wide receiver
again, yeah. Like if you get in a room where
Chaser, Aminar, Jefferson end up going a little higher, Bijan
falls to one O 6, one O 7. Like, I want to kind of jump on
that, yeah. And then hit on like McBride in
the second round and then just go, all right, I'm going to, I'm
going to piss yellow now for 6-7 rounds like that sounds awesome.
Like I love that. And then you can still keep
yourself open to like, oh, Jonathan Brooks slides 3 picks
or 4 picks pass. Like you know what, we still,
you know, there's some wide receivers we like OK, we let's
do A2V2 because if you do just rip the nine straight or
whatever, then it's like you can't really take Jalen Polk.
I mean, you can, but you're going to need running backs.
Here. But I'm saying I would want to
play some of those two V twos of like, no, let's also grab
Jonathan Brooks here because we know that we can arbitrage some
of this with a Pulk pick later. There's some running back
profiles that are worth taking I think.
Another one I'd be more interested in is another guy
who's played two years. And the reason I think of it a
little different than Pacheco, it's Kenneth Walker, is that I
think he's held back by committee talk, whereas
Pacheco's price is clearly not held back by any other teammate,
you know what I mean? So they're like the fact that
the market is capped on how high they're willing to push him and
they don't see him as a first or second rounder speaks to his
profile. Walker I think it speaks more to
workload, which is traditionally been one of those.
Yeah, although he his efficiency was straight up bad last year.
Yeah, it's really boom bust. I mean, I think he he still hits
for big runs if you look at it that way.
He does, but his his success rate's been bad for two straight
years. Success rate, yeah.
His rush of respect, it was negative I believe last year.
But just in terms of of hitting on something that can be
explosive efficiency wise, he. He can definitely hit long runs.
Yeah, there's no doubt there's the.
Potential for that. But yeah, Brooks is the is the
other better example, I think in that in that range.
But I'm totally open to to detouring for running backs that
have like real ceiling, right? Like real scoring ceiling.
And I love that like, you know, OK, like Zamir White is someone
I've been taking actually like way more than I thought I would,
you know, because he's like kind of a clap like thin resume, not
that great of a prospect on a bad team, Two down profile.
Like I'm not taking that guy, but he's like available around
pick 90 half the time. So I'm like, yeah, actually is
my like running back two or running back one?
Cool. But it's ultimately if he just
plays the 17 games and doesn't lose the work on a skill based
and he stays healthy, like if he actually just plays like he's a
hit there, he doesn't have to be good.
Yeah. He can just so I love, love,
love that. Like, no, he's in the sixth
round. Like you got to pay for it.
I I don't want to pay for it at all.
There's no way we're. So, but I love that, you know,
other people are having to pay for that production that that,
you know, that volume. It's just nice.
It's, it makes it so much, you
know, more difficult to be like this profile that I'm used to
fading. You're actually, you know, in
baseball because of the way the the format works, it's a more
difficult profile to fade period.
And then it's so cheap that it's actually like, I think this is a
target now. So back to here.
Yeah, I've no interest in in profiles like White, but I like
that our opponents are gonna have to pay up for it.
What do you guys think of this question as far as the best ball
to manage shift? Lawrence says how how do
discounted guys like Rashi and Addison need to be valued or how
much do they need to be discounted with the uncertainty
and the 12 week regular season, which again, is a big difference
here. And we've talked about fast
starts a lot. And if you're a little too cute
with, you know, building late season monsters, you might not
get those teams to the dance. That's a great point, but also
like you also have to keep in mind that when you get the team
to the dance, it's a very top heavy structure.
It's not much different than everything we talk about in in
best ball. So but now the difference is if
you win your league, you get a nice little payout like you want
to do well in the regular season.
That's going to be the a big way that you can turn a
profitability in these leagues. To me, it's totally dependent on
the the texture of your for those are those are receivers.
It's totally depend on the texture of your build so far and
the texture of your receiver room.
Like if you. Feel How many rookies have you
taken? You know, if you feel that
you're not back weighted very much, then I think you need then
you you're going after back weighted production with Rashid
Rice. I think Rashid Rice is a really
compelling pick in this format, as long as it's not hurting you
too much for the reasons that Lawrence.
Alluded to people also do think about that, that regular season,
that short regular season, a lot like you'll you'll hear about
you know that you know, it's a it's a reason that people are
actually falling in drafts. So you know, and Rice here is
going in the 7th. He's making an an attack on the
the fifth round right now on underdogs.
So you know you are getting. No, may not get.
Suspended. There's still like some
possibility that he might not get suspended, in which case
he's a fucking smash in the seventh round.
Absolute. Smash.
I and I do think that's a huge, there is a big difference in
knowing, you know, what was it the year DeAndre Hopkins was
suspended the first six games, like knowing that concretely
versus like you could be free rolling a non suspension that is
that is very different. Yeah, yeah.
And ATP is really. In those ways, but like it's
important to think about non injury related, non teammate
related, non football related risk in probabilistic range of
outcomes ways like there's upside here in the uncertainty.
Yeah, and you know on the FFPCAD PS: will change dramatically and
people just don't care about ADP like they do one underdog.
So if Rice, you know if we get something like he is suspension
is very likely pushed to 2025, then he'll just like the next
day go in the third round. Right, you'll never get him in
the 7th. Round yeah it's not like he'll
creep up like he'll just go where like he's supposed to go
like immediately like that's just the way it tends to work
especially like you know if we were to get that news you know
in main event season in like in Vegas people just do whatever
they want there's no like using the ADP is like oh this is 6
spots ahead should I no it doesn't really work like that
they don't give. A to your point, like after the
Thursday Night Football game is played like any player in
Thursday Night Football is going to move six rounds One Direction
or the other. Yes, yes, that's one week in
week one. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Pete, can you go up? Can you pull?
Up this Mike Robb comment and can we?
What is this? Mike Rob says Pat, I heard a
rumor that last time you saw Liam, you gave him the two small
hand gesture and Mao two small son to him as your security open
the door to your personal SUV. I I mean, if that's just
made-up, that's a. Fantastic.
That's just completely made-up, Yeah.
If it said Tesla then we would have been on to something.
Jeez. Great fan fiction I.
Like it? I mean, it's very funny, but
complete, complete fiction. While I while I think of it, we
will We'll have some more announcements soon about our
streaming schedule for August. That'll include flipping back to
some evening night streams for drafts.
I I don't even know if we've like publicly announced that we
will be in Vegas for those drafts at the beginning of the
season. We're still figuring out kind of
what we're going to do for ship chasing meet up.
We do have the back-to-back games, the Thursday night game
and now the Friday night game. We'll have some more details
about that. We'll also have details for the
ship chaser VIPs. We'll have some Co manager
opportunities. Again, we'll be circulating a
form to gauge interest for that. But yeah, just some things to
put on your radar. We're getting our ducks in a row
for for all of that coming up. Yeah, it's very exciting.
I'm I'm psyched to get out to Vegas.
Are you gonna drive? Or just fly the personal plate,
so the private the private plate.
Last year I did take, now it's, it's a commercial thing that,
you know, comes out of the, the San Diego airport.
But I did and I didn't know I was, I didn't know I was doing
this because I've booked it through, you know, the chase
portal with like points and there was only one direct flight
available and it was JetBlue. So I booked it and it was more
expensive than usual, but I booked it kind of late.
So I was like, you know, this is what I get, You know, I waited
too long. It turns out, no, it was
actually, I think JSX is the line, but it's like a, it's a
private plane. Oh God.
Wow how rich he's accidentally booking.
Private is a little more expensive.
Actually. Private.
Private flights. There was like, there was like
20 people on it, you know, It wasn't like.
You know. But it wasn't all rows of seats,
it was like there was like a different setup I'm assuming.
No, it was basically just a small plane.
It wasn't like. Yeah, it was like there weren't
leather seats. I'd like to.
What I was gonna say is there's there's two types of basketball
touts. The one that buys the wrong
flight to the wrong city on their way to Vegas, and the one
that buys the the the the personal.
Yeah, that's true. Those are.
The two types. The big thing is that you don't
go, you just show up at like a, it's the plane of the plane,
private plane. That's so cool.
No, it's like, it's basically like it's closer to a puddle
jumper than like a cool plane. But you don't go through
security. You just show up at the hangar
and they're like, all right, cool.
That's that. I did enjoy quite a bit.
It is good. Yeah, do.
They search you at all or anything.
No, no, no. You just get on the plane.
Just whatever you want to bring on the plane you.
Can it's like 1960 bro they they come with like with a with
drinks and stuff on the plane. It's just literally.
Had like a six foot bong like on his shoulder like a log as he
walks. I I stopped I, you know, like
because you walk up, there's no like tunnel little thing you go
through, you walk up the stairs to the plane like on the on the
asphalt. And so right at the top of the
stairs, I just lit that bong up. This is a survey.
Survey the scene. Gave a wave like a president.
Let the smoke suck, all right? We can take off now.
What do you guys think? We we haven't talked a ton about
the quarterback prices. I know Pat just mentioned the
Anthony Richardson. You got Josh Allen in round
four. I still looking at this FFPCADP,
Hertz, Mahomes, Lamar in round 5A, Rich and six, Stroud and
seven. Then you go all the way down to
9 where you get Burrow, Kyler, Dak, Love and then Jaden Daniels
in round 11. What do you guys think about the
QB landscape? Interesting.
I mean, it's definitely. I mean, I think you, you can
make a compelling case to to pay up and and go after something.
I think you can make a compelling case to wait with
those prices for sure. Like there's some good options
there in that 9:00 to 11:00, right?
That QB windows alive and well, too.
We've seen we've seen Mahomes pay off in a big way.
This exact ADP like two years ago we did this and he was a
smash Hertz in the 5th. You know, Allen 4th Lamar coming
off an MVP season, looks like he falls to the 6th pretty
regularly. Richardson in the 6th 7th like
that's this quarterback upside does seem underpriced.
Then I'd probably want to. I mean, well, then the market
kind of kind of dictates that. Then you there's like a tier
basically until like the 9th ish.
But like, I don't know, Kyler seems pretty decently priced at
the at the 8-9 love. Yeah, Daniels in the 10th is
pretty nice. I mean, so you want to talk
about the difference between like best ball and redraft?
Like Daniels is definitely a target for me in best ball, but
not someone I'm like super, super excited about.
And in part it's because like this dude takes on hits and I'm
like, man, I really don't want, I'm drafting 2 quarterbacks
probably with the Daniels build, maybe three, but and A2
quarterback build. If Daniels is getting hurt, you
know, for even four or five games, that's really going to
hurt. Me we also I love this point.
We also don't know how much the offense is going to work like
towards his running. If we see him in week one run 8
times you're like, oh that's right.
So. Yeah, but no, I mean, so Daniels
is like he has the profile where you very set and forget starter
could really pay off if he were to miss a few games.
And we like pick up off the waiver wire like you know, Drake
may maybe or even like you know, you can get Deshaun Watson in
the 16th. You can get will you?
Literally think of another example of a later QB like they
don't even exist. In Pat's brain, the grin in this
like. Drake may, maybe.
Violent through his. Eyes, let's say his name Bonex,
Bonex off the wave wire. It's, it's like it's very easy.
Like why would you like? And, and this is sometimes I
feel like in redraft, people are more worried about the injury
risk than less. But like, who cares?
Like if Jaden Daniels gives us 6 awesome weeks and then we ought
to go figure out quarterback again, like, OK, that's fine.
In the 10th round, that's totally fine.
He's such a compelling play. The other two names I would give
in the in the late 12th are I think you're going to get a
little bit more mobility as I went through my projections out
of both Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence than people
realized. Trevor Lawrence has had some
solid rushing numbers so far. The reason he hasn't really hit
in fantasy is his career high passing TV's is like 25.
It's gross dude. If he just has, I mean, I'm
like, maybe he's not going to take that step forward, but he
has a a vertical profile to his passing.
He's willing to take shots. Yes, 25 is his career high pass
T DS. Last year he only had 21.
If he just has a 30 plus pass TD season, which I'm more or less
projecting the markets, projecting the the Jags to be a
team that scores points like they're not.
It's it's an anomaly that he hasn't done it yet.
I think for what his profile is and how good his surrounding
cast is and Doug Peterson's his coach and all of that stuff,
he's one of my favorite QBs at QB 15.
I'm trying to get more of him on an underdog 2.
I haven't taken enough of him, but there's a little bit more
mobility and a little bit more I think upside to his overall
profile. If the if the passing side hits
in a way that like that's one of my concerns with Richardson that
we're going to have to talk through.
Pat is like, I don't know, the passing side can hit big enough
for him to to smash his ATP. I think he'll be fine.
Like he said, obviously you can see why the profile could really
hit and obviously his rushing is the thing that carries him in a
way that not even Lawrence, but the passing side has to come
along too. And and for Lawrence, like it
just hasn't at all yet. If he has a good pass TV season
and we know that stuff bounces around, he's going to be a smash
in that in that range. I think that the Richardson is
just it's a really well designed offense.
I think Steiken is super sharp and AD Mitchell, like, you know,
reports so far have been extremely exciting.
I don't like Pittman at his cost in basketball at all, but he can
play and then I think Josh Jones can play, so.
You know, tricky thing for me on them on the projections was the
market actually has them as a pretty low scoring team overall.
And so even when I gave him like Russian TDs, I had to give
Jonathan Taylor some rush TDs. They're not that much different
than Jacksonville, to be clear, but I think Jonathan Taylor's
more of a threat for like rushing TDs.
And probably TN is like you get to the overall TD profile.
It's like I ended up not being able to project many passing TDs
because I was projecting them to be a team that was imbalanced
towards rush TDs, if that makes sense.
That does make sense. And so then you need Indy to
like beat market expectation as an offense and overall
touchdowns, which you can get. But that's sort of where.
I'm willing to bet on that with if I'm, if you're telling me I
need, if I'm betting on Anthony Richardson and that means I'm
betting on Indy to beat expectations, I'm good.
Right. Yeah, that makes sense.
Here, Here's a fun little wrinkle of the QBADP relative to
the guys Gretsch just highlighted.
Lawrence and Caleb going in the 12th.
Look at who the two wide receivers you'd be tempted by
are in the ninth around all of those other quarterbacks.
If you're like Kyler, Love, Burrow, Jane Daniels and Dak,
you got Rome and Brian Thomas. Yeah.
So if you are like, I want to, I can't pass on Rome and Brian
Thomas. But guess what?
Now let's just put their quarterback in.
Our back pocket A. Couple rounds.
Later, and those are, I mean Caleb, that's a really nice
price on Caleb. That's a really nice price.
Yeah, so damn. Like 12th round Caleb stacked
with Rome in the ninth. God damn.
Yeah, damn. The Caleb thing, I just did my
my Chicago projection too, and it's like they have a lot of
weapons, man. They have a lot of good weapons.
I'm just like all of my target projections for everyone on that
offense are lower than is it is reasonable, which is to say that
like if someone gets hurt or something, you don't have a
floor like guys can can soak up the other volume like I'm I'm.
Projecting. Even lower than he should be DJ
more low than he should be Romajunsi lower than a top 10
receiver should be. Comment lower than he should be
all the way down. Even like the running backs that
earn volume they have, they have good pass catching backs between
Swift and Roshan. And that actually really scares
me. And they keep talking about
Gerald Everett. Right.
And Gerald Everett's there and all that stuff.
But my point is there's enough there that like if if somebody
gets hurt, if if DJ Moore goes down, OK, well, I can easily
project Keenan Allen to do more than I was projecting.
I can easily project a doonsie to to soak some of this up.
I can project more two tight end sets in both command and Everett
actually hit. Like I can't even project
Everett for any volume at all. And I do think he's going to be
a part of their offense because they have like a lot of depth to
their past team is I mean, it's just like a real thing.
Yeah, they do. Let's this is a good question
from Nick talking about the stacking stuff in redraft.
I'll just like frame the conversation and then get your
guys's thoughts. I think to me there's two big
benefits. There's the regular season, just
simple correlation. Like if Brian Thomas is a smash
man, I think that really increases the chances that
Trevor Lawrence has a good year. So just like team level
correlation. But then there is the playoff
Sprint element. Gretch was hinting at it
massively, massively top heavy the same way you are approaching
the Sprint contest on underdog. It's the same thing here with
FFPC weeks 15 through 17. There are going to be teams
stack pairings that go off and it allows you to get less things
right to be concentrated on those offenses, on those
pairing. That's kind of how I think about
it. So I'm still pretty big
stacking, not to the extent we are on, on underdog, but I think
it's a priority. I think it's a great point and I
think in the past years it wasn't as popular, but as we get
further along it's going to trickle into this stuff more,
especially with the way that underdog structures are set up.
Like I'm just thinking a few years ago when Josh Allen and
Stefan Diggs were the nuts in the Sprint, there were some Josh
Allen and Stefan Diggs teams around the top, and then there
were also some just pure Josh Allen teams and then some pure
Stefan Diggs teams. I remember cuz I had a Stefan
Diggs team that year and I didn't have Allen and I wasn't
completely blocked. I feel like if that happened to
this year, you'd be blocked because I, you also need a
Camara that year and you needed some other dudes and I think
there wasn't enough configurations that had all
that. But the tournament's gotten a
little bigger. First prize is larger now.
And I feel like, so some of the past data might, might even
actually say like, well, it hasn't always needed to be a, a,
a correlation, But to Pete's point, you're getting less
things right. And when they hit in a
correlated way like that, there's going to be more teams
in there that have that is is sort of the way that I'm
thinking about it. Yeah, I think the biggest the
difference is that like you're it's so much more important to
just like be trying to find the right players in redraft, in
part because when you don't find the right players, it doesn't
matter as much. Like if you just whiff, it's not
as big of a deal. Obviously if you draft like tons
of busts, your team's going to suck.
But like it's about finding those players that are the huge
difference makers and then over the course of the season
cobbling together enough around them.
And your draft might not ultimately even be like look at
the the go Bills draft from you know what, the second year they
want the 2nd. Year they want, yeah.
It's like half the guys weren't on the team.
You know, they had to, they had to build it over the course of
the year. That's and that's very common
for, you know, good redraft seems is that you're continuing
to build them post draft. So, you know, in that sense, I
think stacking is is less important because you should be
breaking ties towards the profiles that you know, you
think have a better chance of especially like the weed
winners. The tack on stacks late, which
matters best. Exactly right, because.
They hit your line up, but in in redraft, you're not actually
going to go put whoever the you know, DJ Charkin, I mean, maybe
he could hit in a way that you would if you I don't know.
Like we talked about Trevor Lawrence, like Gabe Davis is not
especially appealing as a not going to start partner.
And and, and partly because guess what, dude, you're
dropping Gabe Davis, you're probably dropping Gabe Davis.
You know, maybe you know, there's certain builds where
maybe Gabe Davis is a stacked thing with Trevor Lawrence.
Feels like, OK, man, we need a receiver, you know, sure, but
like, it's not a priority to get that.
Whereas, you know, if you have Lawrence in on a basketball team
and you're coming around and you kind of need a receiver and Gabe
Davis is there, sure. Like, that seems great.
You know, it's just a different thing.
Well, I was thinking of some actual names to make that point.
There's been like, Rondelle Moore's, what I've been doing
with the Falcon stacks. I would never see a scenario
where I could start Rondelle Moore in a managed league.
Yeah, like everything would have to be wrong with Kirk Cousins.
Greg Dorch is one I've done with Kylie Murray stuff.
I I don't, I don't think you're like, I want to put Greg Dorch
in for the stacking element into a managed league.
That's probably never happened, but that makes sense in
basketball. In the the other point I was
going to make is you have you're not forced into the stack like
you are with best ball or using the stack, I should say, like I
think an element that would be realistic in the Sprint.
Say you took tank Dell and then you got CJ Stroud as a value and
you stack those guys up. But say you just hit, you
crushed your wide receiver decisions and tank Dell wasn't
even in your starting lineup most weeks because he was really
volatile. You don't know where to use him.
But then you find yourself in the Sprint and you are 50 points
out and yes, you have a guy who projects for 3.4 more points
than take Dell. But CJ Stroud is your
quarterback. You know, tank Dell is going to
be low owned, not going to be used by a lot of teams.
What is a way for you to climb your way up?
You use that correlation, that stack and the percentage to your
advantage. So like, I think those are the
situations where it could really come in handy.
Yeah, give yourself a lever, but to your point tank, Dell is a a
class of receiver that can be within like 3 projected points
of your starter. You can't do that with a like a
like. And I know you weren't saying
this, but I'm just reinforcing like that point doesn't extend
to like a great Greg Dorch because you'd have to be giving
up like 10 points of projected that week.
You wouldn't do that. Yeah.
But I mean, I do think there are
some interesting stuff like a Troy Franklin and and Bo Nicks.
So you're probably not even needing to draft, but maybe it's
like sort of waiver wire speed dial on Nicks.
We'll see. We'll kind of see where he's at.
I could, I think he could be draftable, but like that would
be like that's a stack that I kind of am interested in because
that would be like, you know, potential path sort of thing or
like. It's a bet on the whole offense.
Bet on the whole offense and Franklin, like Franklin
certainly fits a profile of like, I don't know, like he
could be nothing. He could be really something.
And it I like him in best ball because I think there's a good
chance he he's playing by the end of the year.
But I also like him in redraft because if he's totally nothing
and I have to cut him, I don't. Who cares?
Yeah. It doesn't.
The only reason you care is those guys.
You sometimes round trip those guys and then you're like, man.
Troy Franklin Week 7 breakout. I wish I didn't have.
I know that's true. Then you do care?
Yeah. What was the round trip?
You caught up too early. Oh, like you cut the guy because
they're not doing anything, but then they do what you thought
they were going to do all along. It's surged toward the end of
the season, but you couldn't afford the roster spot.
Yeah. Right, right.
But then also the fear of that is why you hold Quinn Johnston
too long. It's too long.
It's a vicious cycle. It's tough.
It's not easy. But here's like, let's see,
DeMarcus Robinson's going in the 17th round.
Xavier Largette is going in the 16th round.
That's a great. Example.
That's a great. Example that's a bet on a on an
offense that the market hates to massively over perform to find
this year's Texans. That's what the Broncos is.
That's what Carolina is. They're two of the three lowest
scoring projected offense and New England would be another
great one. If you wanted to say, you know,
Polk and and Drake May and all those guys.
Not really into that one, but. I I actually trust that you
didn't pull them out. Right away, I know.
Trust me. When I said Troy Franklin, I was
thinking Polk and May. I used I used Polk and Leget as
an example in my piece for fantasy life and I I'm really
playing with fire because I used on the other side of the coin,
like the Dantavian Wicks thing where there's all this hype for
him, but he could. He can certainly pop off for
spike weeks. But I think it's going to
probably be pretty hard to know when the star Dantavian Wicks.
But you're going to know. And again, maybe you don't know
until later in the season, but like we're going to get real
good peaks on. Is Polk just the alpha there in
New England right of the gate? And if he is, which is well
within the range of outcomes like boom, you hit on it.
And if he's buried and Juju and whoever is playing ahead of him,
like all right, that's. Juju even makes the roster.
I think that's that should lower pulse 80 but.
But I do think you take those those cuts on those guys because
that information can be, can be really valuable.
No, 100%. And Wix would be one of those
guys that's, I mean, probably every Packers receiver like they
they've talked about how they won a game plan and roll out
different kind of stuff every week.
And and it's it's not going to be predictable like that.
It doesn't sound that fun for Redraft, even though you don't
want to take that too far. Mac Nova says Chase Claypool
around 20 seems like a nice click in July redrafts.
I would say that that is a good call for that type of play.
It's there's always way more players in that like class of
potential then you actually have roster spots for.
So you have to be more discerning it.
It feels like what what's the what's the reason not to take
him? Well, you're not taking other
shots and so is he the best shot you can take.
Well, yeah. And it's like you also if you if
we are drafting kind of early, right, we have like five or six
weeks until the season starts. Like, who are the late round
picks that can really rise? It's generally the running
backs, right? Like when you look at these guys
here, like take some of these guys like Khalil Herbert or
Samaj P Ryan, you know, like maybe those guys don't have a
great outlook now, but they get cut.
They sign with the Chiefs, they sign, you know, wherever,
somewhere attractive. It's like those guys are moving
up four rounds and like you can bink that CLV, whereas I just
don't think you're ever getting mega chase Claypool CLV.
I don't think you are either. I think Bassi is sort of
rotational. That's what I was thinking.
Even if you're going to go to wide receiver, I think I would
go to like a Cowboy where like maybe Jalen Tolbert is actually
something, you know, or even like draft Ryan Flournoy and say
he's going to be this year's puka.
Because like then I think if you bink that, you can bink that in
a way that's like he's actually running a ton of routes.
And in a, you know, obviously Claypool would also be in a good
pass game, but I just think the payoff would be different.
Yep, Yeah, I think it'll be yeah, it'll be fun to talk
through because I think a lot of, you know, similar to how we
feel on Underdog, like there are a lot of fun ways to build this
year. And like, I already just know I
I I do want to have some teams where it's like, oh, maybe we
get in the piss boy room and we get a breeze hall or a Bijon
anchor. Like I want to have that team.
I want to have a team where we have a chant, you know, I want
to have these teams where we have some of these kind of
luxury, you know, Detour picks early, just that build the
versions of teams. We like to build around those.
Can you pull up the board again? Yeah, because I I think the back
half of the board has been frustrating an underdog and in
some ways it has that same frustration where there's just
such a clear tear break after A.J.
Brown, Wilson and puka. But it is interesting, like look
at the the the FFPC is honoring that tear break at wide receiver
where on underdog we normally just power right through it and
take Marvin Harrison. Exactly, Yeah.
And I kind of like that here. Like I would have no problem
going like JT Laporta like at the turn and that would now
we're just going to rip it. I think honoring that tear break
out of the 12 is probably the way to play it like running
back, tight end start because like you're going to be OK at
receiver. You know if you can get if you
could go neighbors depot at 3-4. Which you can according to this.
That's, that's pretty good. You know, I'm not going to be
like terrified about my, my wide receiver room if those are my
top two guys. So I think honoring that tear
break, which we all feel, you know, I, I, but in underdog, we
don't really have the ability to do that because we will fall
behind. But here it's pretty, I think
it's much clearer how to play it in the back half of the board.
Yeah, yeah, I'm man, I'm getting, I'm getting very
excited. The other.
To get in these. Yeah, me too.
The other nice thing about the back part that started to
happen, that's not happening here.
That started to happen in underdog with the rising prices
around 7 receivers is like if you pick out of the one O 1, the
6-7 turn, you can still get like I it's so nice when you can
still get like for me at least for to get like Deonte Johnson
and JSN at the 6-7 turn and you're like, I've gotten 7 picks
in and I got both those receivers at the back end of
that whatever detours I took prior.
Whereas in when you're in the back window, you can't get a
receiver at the back of the 7th. The window's closed.
So you have to do like you have 6 picks to figure out your
receiver and this one, because everything's pushed up JS NS,
the eighth round pick like you get the seven eighth turn is now
actually a viable receiver receiver turn that's.
True. That's very true, yeah.
I mean I and I will say is pretty.
Nice too. We we haven't like fully
discussed this. And I know it's not like it's a,
it's a pretty simple talking point, but like I've been not as
high on Deonte Johnson as Gretch on underdog, but like, holy cow,
like Deonte, like God, FFPC, when we get when we get boosted
to the full point, PPR, like I do think some of the excitement
of these guys should get ratcheted up and like comparing
a Deonte Johnson to Christian Watson on FPC on FPC versus
underdog or even a Keenan, you know, to some of these guys,
like I do start to get really excited about that element.
I've also warmed up a bit on Deonte, so yeah, him in the
seventh round does feel pretty good.
Pretty. Stuck to have Deonte and all our
teams this year guys. What?
I'm hearing from both of you is that you're in on Deonte, the
seventh round. Every day.
I'm not like not like super in. I'm just definitely willing to
take him. Yeah, the one the one spot looks
very fun to build out of for. Sure.
There's just so much you can you can do there.
I mean honestly running back tight end looks like a pretty
fun start or or wide receiver tight end running back if if a
Chan is in range, but that that looks like a very fun start
pretty much anywhere. Yeah, it's kind of crazy.
The 2-3 tight ends is really similar to the 4-5 and underdog,
where the backdraft slots have access to Laporta and Kelsey.
The 2-3 turn is just the 4-5 turn.
Kincaid Andrew's question right, if you're on the back half and
you didn't take one of the earlier tight ends and you're
looking at maybe pits and the like at the late 3rd, which is
like late 5th and and underdog and then the 4th 5th in some
ways replaces the receiver choices of the two three where
you're getting Devonta and and Debo Samuel and some of those
dudes. Stefan digs the third round pick
goes late 4. You know, I mean, T Higgins is
is Kittles late 5. He's the. 3rd Kittle a cheat
code Kittle's going. Like.
Four spots ahead of his underdog 8P.
He went way later in in my Scott Fishbowl draft too and I think
people are really concerned about the.
The zeros or. The the, the policy, I was going
to say the PPR ceiling, the actual catch ceiling, right,
like targets and volume, but like contingent upside on Kittle
is massive to me. If either Debo or I you can miss
his time like he should. His target projection goes way
up. Like he's really good.
He's super efficient every year. I mean.
Well, the Evan Ingram Kittle ADP's are telling that exact
story. It's they're saying give me my 7
1/2 targets game I and I want to, I want to take those to.
The, and is it really cuz Kittle's still going to get 95
to 100 targets. He's not going to get nothing.
He's a really good football player.
So is it really that extra 20 targets or whatever it is?
Is it really worth this? And and also when we know that
there's chaos in season and like the contingent based upside
like. It's chasing the floor.
It's chasing project. Cozy.
Right. Yeah, and, and just being like,
like, I'm going to feel sick to my stomach.
Like, yeah, it's cool that week I win with 25 from Kittle, but I
don't want to deal with those weeks where he scores 2 1/2.
And I do think it's possible to punt tight end in this format.
I mean, we the first year we went out pee to Vegas, you know,
Matt and Mark were these this, this father and son duo that we
met out there and they just like basically didn't draft the tight
end. I think they took like one dude
in like the 14th or 15th round. They won their league.
We did not win our league.
They won their league. You know it is, it's it's
possible to punt. I mean, you could do, you could,
you could do Jonnu, Jwan Johnson, maybe a Ben Sennett in
there, get some upside option like you know, you can get three
or four guys in this range and and play it.
I also think, and I haven't, I've been slow to warm up to
this. I'm coming around, but I also
think that the Rams tight ends, like I would be totally open to
grabbing Parkinson and Davis Allen to close out of draft
1920. Give me those, give me those two
tight ends and they're going to play someone.
Give someone 75% of the routes and we're we're golden.
Same thing with the Chargers. Disley and Chargers and Hurst,
like Greg Roman's offense features tight hands somewhat.
If they play enough, it's certainly possible to be good
there. It it will be, that will be an
interesting conversation for us from like a portfolio
standpoint, because I think there's like seven or eight
tight ends that we would be excited about drafting in the
first six rounds. And so just like naturally, like
we're probably always going to be like, yeah, let's grab this
tight end here. So it would be like a conscious
decision or maybe you get smacked in the face with two
really good values at like running back.
You get like 2 running back. That looks like, all right,
let's go CMCHN here. Like this just seems fun.
And then you're like, all right, this is going to be the punt,
you know, tight end team, basically.
Yeah, yeah. Or I mean, I also am open to you
know, you grab CMCHN and then you're running back three is in
like round 12, round 13, you know, you like really punt that.
Yep, Yep. Well, that's fun.
We're gonna, we're gonna be talking about this stuff just a
lot. Just.
A lot of more. That's my big take away.
Yeah, we're about to have a lot of fun.
I know you guys, a lot of you. It's an annual thing we do for
the YouTube VIPs. We'll get the videos going with
a ship chasing mini sod when we hop in our FFPC main event.
We'll let you guys know when that gets rolling.
And yeah, we're gonna get some draft stream scheduled.
All that stuff, like I said, housekeeping stuff,
announcements on schedule. The one thing that is locked and
loaded, we will be in Vegas that Thursday and Friday hanging out
watching the games and we'll we'll organize a ship chasing
meet up. All of that good stuff.
Gretch, anything else for you in the stealing signals realm?
Nothing major, just did a YouTube stream yesterday, was a
long one but I think it hit on a lot of good topics.
The projection pods with Leonie finishing.
I have like 6 teams left to finish all my projections and
then I'm going to be able to start writing up some content
over on the newsletter behind that but just still plugging
away at spreadsheets on the projections.
Beautiful Gretch, what's going on?
Or Pat, what's going on with leg up?
So I just put out an article. It went live yesterday morning.
Just a quick, quick read on some AT PS that I'm afraid of losing
as things get shaken up due to training camp.
In some cases, it's guys that I'm like not hammering right
now, but then I'm worried they're going to rise and I'm
going to wish that I did hammer them or some stacks that I think
are just super fun right now that are priorities for me.
So check that out on legendary upside.
We did AI did a podcast with Eric Froton today on the college
football, you know, the best bowl mania that underdog just
launched. So that's a it was very fun.
I I know nothing about the college football scene really.
So very fun to kind of get a, a sense of structurally how to how
to build there. You got to think about 5 weeks a
lot and just get like a little, little taste of what the player
pool is like over there. So check that out.
That's we just recorded that right before this.
That'll be up later today or early tomorrow.
Awesome. Yeah, my other show tonight.
I got Neil Orfield on the randomizer tonight.
The wheel is locked and ready to go.
That'll be a very fun show. Tomorrow, Special one off stream
on my YouTube. We're doing the world's fastest
slow draft Part 2. Going to try to set our world
record or break our world record from last year.
And then best ball after dark is Friday night.
I'm having Michael Chang on. He is a data scientist who just
did a ton of deep dive into the weekly winners data.
So if you're kind of interested in that format, he's going to
walk me through all of his research and some of his
takeaways for that. And then we'll do a weekly
winners draft. Otherwise, we'll be back next
week at our normal time and keep your eye out for all of our
announcements with our August schedule.
Thanks again to Nick and the hopper here helping us produce.
Thank you guys for accommodating this early start.
And we'll, we'll catch you guys in the Discord for Pat, for
Gretsch. I'm Pete.
We'll see you guys next time.