It's June 17th and Chris Godwin is a top ten riser, up five
spots by ADP. Thanks, Leonie.
ADP chasing is for when you watch ship chasing you go these
guys are just football guys. And the targets for outrun
leagues, that's going to be really nice.
Actually back in if it's oceanet get.
Scared to our crystal ball? Close your eyes, you know all
your entries are going to lose anyway.
That's fair. This is a Deuce von show.
It's. Anti cabal.
It's anti the best ball thought leader.
I'm obviously lying to some degree because like, I have a
lot of both of these guys. It's the most disgusting thing
you can make, but man, it's everyone.
And. Still still hits.
Welcome to ADP chasing. We're we're joined today by
special guest Mike Leone from Established Run.
Mike, how you doing? Good, I love the intro.
Leonie is a he's a good fit for this show.
You know this is the charts and graph show like when when you're
when you're sick of when you're sick of the ball knowers on ship
chasing you, you call in Leonie here.
I don't know. I was expecting, you know, some
of these time stamps on the past episodes.
Two hours. I don't know what I got myself
into. Well.
We all have hard outs, that's why you agreed to come on.
Yeah, allegedly everyone on the show has a.
Hard out like an hour. Hour and a half to.
Like a group chat that we all like agreed upon a time without
saying I'm ahead of time. We're like, this is enough's
enough. I'll try my best to keep it 2
and an hour and a half today even.
Though So are you coming back next week for Part 2 then,
Leonie? Yeah, I was gonna say, I was
gonna say how many players are we even gonna get through in 90
minutes, Like two and. 1/2. That's fair, all right.
Since we're short on time, let's dive right into it.
The only really news of this week, I would say is this Juwan
Johnson stuff. He's down about 20 spots in ADP.
And yeah, this is related to this injury you suffered.
It's still a little bit uncertain what the injury is,
but the reporting is that he'll be out a while.
Hopefully he'll be back for the regular season.
But yeah, still don't know what the injury is.
Start with you, Mike. How have you adjusted the ranks
and the inputs on Juan Johnson with this this injury?
Yeah, we have him tight end 25 now.
It's kind of disappointing. I was actually talking to Crane
about this one of our Discord chats.
But like Juan Johnson and Tucker Craft were like the two guys
that we were really high on as like late round tight ends and
they both got injured. So that puts a damper on what's
already like not the best collection of late round tight
ends. I still think both those guys in
the right spots in round eighteen, I would take them on
the right builds like it's, you know, uphill battle when you're
already a late round pick and now you're starting with injury.
But especially like in Kraft's case, I still think there's some
like end of season upside there with Johnson.
I don't know. I'm I'm waiting to hear back
more. I really haven't drafted him
much since the injury, but I've also been drafting more earlier
tight end stuff and just not really needed him.
Yeah, I'm taking Johnson still some on car stuff and I'm also
like this might be bad. So I'm trying to.
You're doing, you're doing like round 1718 car. 1818 only yeah,
like I've got a lave. I need car then in the final
round, I'm like I'll tackle on Juan Johnson as a third tight
end. If I needed a second tight end,
I would go also where it obviously that's a little long
to wait for your second tight end, but yeah, third tight end.
I think maybe it's OK as you know, he, it's clearly like kind
of his role if he's. Yeah.
And there's like there's some drafts that I, I feel like
there's a lot of variants in the like which tight ends are
available in round 18 like some. Drafts.
Some drafts. There's some really good ones.
Yeah, some. Sometimes there's really good
ones. Sometimes people take a ton of
tight ends, in which case, like I'll take Joanne Johnson when
it's like him versus, I don't know, like Theo Johnson or
something. No, I ask this knowing the
answer already, but where was the Juan Johnson hive coming
from? I this this missed me entirely.
Yeah. So I realized this after he got
injured that it was that I mean, Sack had like a ton of him.
I I think Sack and I podcasted the day that this news came out.
And I guess I'm assuming that he was very high in the the ET or
relatively high in the ETR ranks as well.
I had, I mean, you guys fan pilled me.
So I was just taking no a fan every time like I I would this
this totally passed me by because I thought we were all
doing no a fan. And then I started zoom out.
I zoomed out on the chart and realized I'm the one with no
Juan Johnson. I thought we were all doing this
together. I didn't.
I didn't realize. That this was multiple.
Guys, I'm not. I'm taking.
Davis's exposures or so so. Yeah.
You. Can't.
Find out that doing. Davis, I'm I'm.
I'm just very polarized in that range and so when I need a
second tight end who I think can get 58 reception, 644 yards and
four touchdowns, I just have been taking fan instead of Juwan
Johnson and. I can give, yeah, I can give a
bit of the the Juwan Bull case. Let's let's just say for a
second this injury, he he's back for the regular season.
He's healthy. Assume he's healthy for.
To be clear, Sam wasn't in on Johan Johnson until he dropped
to the 18th round. Yeah, now, now I love him.
That's where all his favorite picks are.
And now that he's in the 18th. Price is OK there.
Price is great, yeah. But I mean, I think the argument
is the Saints are probably gonna throw a bunch.
They were, I think pretty high in pass rate last year.
Outside of Crystal Ave. there's just absolutely nobody else in
this team. And you look at Juwan Johnson's
like efficiency stats. They weren't that great last
year, but you know, 20% ish targets were outrun.
That's pretty solid for a tight end.
Maybe the Saints use Kendra Miller more instead of Kamera.
So those like dump off passes go a little bit more towards the
tight end position instead of running back and you can see
Juwan just sort of PPR scan. I mean like literally I.
Think you just talked about Taysom Hill by accident?
Yeah, I know. I I mean this.
Is what that is from USDOT dot meme?
I mean, this is like like literally Hayden.
Ever. We needed Taysom Hill late.
Round imagine where Taysom would be going right now at at tight
end after the Stewan. Johnson is fourteenth round.
I think I think it's. Definitely about the 14th, I
think Why, why did they make Taysom quarterback?
I don't get. It I don't know.
Why did Underdog do it more than he ever has before?
So like now, let's make the switch.
I saw I saw a picture of Jeremy with Alex from the FFPC that
that might have. The the real answer is because
that's how the Saints list him. Because the Saints are Dick
heads. Yeah, yeah, the Saints are Dick.
They're they're, they're doing the emergency quarterback role.
Right. The emergency quarterback thing,
yeah, It's so dumb though. I mean, yeah.
I mean, he's not really a tight end either, to be fair.
I don't really know what he is. But he's a quarterback.
He's the least. Quarterback.
His real position is he's a fullback.
He he really Kyle Usecheck. Yeah, he is a Kyle Usecheck was
listed as a quarterback that's that's how much of A quarterback
takes from that was. Yeah.
List him as a running back maybe?
I don't know. Yeah, he he draftable as a
running back. I would take him at running back
43 if he was eligible there I think.
Well. Let's not hang on.
I'm going to pull up who running back 43.
Is that's it? No running back.
Like Zach Chardonnay or something.
It's. It's that's Kendray Miller.
That's Kendray Miller. Literally Kendray Miller by 80.
Five. That's if you.
That's not a big kendray. Miller, You can taste them over
kendray. Miller yeah, if you got.
Your upside's so capped there. Upside is so much lower.
Taysom's upside's like 50 points in a week?
Come on. You got to zoom out further on
the chart. You guys are thinking too
narrowly. You're.
Thinking too narrowly, it's. An ultimate, that's fair
situation, I think on the Taysom.
It's mutual. That's fair.
I can see about the show so long 'cause now we're talking about.
Tasting. Oh yeah, yeah.
Pathetically, we've talked about half a player so far.
I just love, I love the idea of someone who's like checking out
the show for the first time. It's like, oh, fantasy football
like this might be interesting. And we just go straight into
Juan Johnson and Taysom Hill and they're they've already.
Don't tell to a player that no one's drafting because he's.
In a position he's not well eligible at.
I do, I do want to make. I do want to make this clear.
We, we do, you know, underdog ADP on this program, but Taysom
is like an insanely good pick on draftkings.com.
I, I, I think I did one, I did one last night.
He's like 155th overall. But you, you just like you just
want to have Taysom where you can take him.
Yeah, 151 on on underdog. It's pretty good.
On DraftKings, no. I'm sorry on DraftKings.
Should actually on ironically he is getting a lot of buzz and
this I mean and it kind of makes sense like again.
They have no one, they have no players.
Skill players like it might be outside of a lavae, it's got to
be one of the worst skill position rooms in that.
Effect. I thought you were a shaheed
guy. What happened?
Well, I, I like OK, Shaheed's OK, but he's kind of just a deep
threat, not a huge target earner.
I like Shahid and best ball. I I just think there's tons of
like opportunity. After what?
What is the I? Do like Shahid though.
What is the? Most targets Rashid Shahid can
realistically earn in a season, you know, like, like really,
he's just not, he's not 120 target player.
Yeah, I think it's probably around 110 hundred maybe as
ceiling, but still could. Be.
But I mean, he's a deep threat, you know?
Yeah, yeah, one time would be great.
Perfect. He's I mean, he's perfect for
this game. He he's like he's he's kind of
like cheaper game. What?
Would you would you say is there like a could we say like maybe
he's better in best ball though he's perfect for this game.
I would desperately try not to say I.
Didn't. Want to say I didn't want
because look, if we if we round trip best ball discourse to what
we were all saying five years ago like if we're like truly if
we're if we're just back to this guy's better at best ball like.
We are, you just say in that case.
No, I said. He's better for this game, which
sounds so much smarter. I don't know if it does, but.
All right, let's let's get this back on the rails.
Alvin Kamara. I did want, I did want to touch
on this briefly. He's allegedly holding out even
though he's like the most overpaid running back in the
NFL. I, I don't does anyone have a
read on what's actually going on here?
My first thought is that the Saints were trying to strong arm
him into like taking a pay cut. The problem with that theory is
that he had a pretty big roster bonus due on like March 15th of
this year. So if the Saints were interested
in cutting him they would have sorted that out before the
roster bonus was due. So I am confused as to what the
situation is. Yeah, Florio I think had, I
think it was Florio had a article on it where he was
saying that basically The thing is they are interested in
cutting him after the season because he has this big final
year on his deal that he's not going to see any of.
He's got 1818 million in $18 million cap pit that is going to
cut him. So I think they save, Yeah, I
don't know, I think they save 18 million or something like that.
Spot track got way harder to read anyway, they're gonna cut
him after the year. And so he's trying to get either
more deals at more years added to his deal or more guaranteed
money or incentives this season or whatever.
But he he kind of doesn't like the situation he's in where this
year I think he's getting like, let's see, I think his cap hits
8 million and then next year jumps to 18 and he'll never see
any of it. Got it.
Yeah. I mean, it seems like he has
absolutely no leverage from like a fantasy standpoint.
I'm pretty worried with Kamara's efficiency last year if he's
like holding out and not practicing with the team that
that even though like, I don't think he's actually going to
hold out and miss games. Like it is a bit scary in terms
of the team just being like, well, you're not going to show
up. Well, you're bad anyways.
We're just going to roll with Kendray this year.
That part of it definitely starts to scare me.
This this is going to be the ultimate the market realizes
they were wrong the entire way thing where they realized that
Kamara was being a little bit overdrafted anyway and then he's
going to settle into a more appropriate price range for no
real reason. Not that not that he was ever
going to miss time or hold out or whatever.
Like I I think the chances of him not playing for contract
reasons are like sub 5% but they're better picks going after
him. Leonie Yevani takes on where
Khmer's going or his hold out situation.
I think the hold out makes more sense now, like given what Pat
said where it's like he's just trying to make sure he gets some
guaranteed money paid next year as opposed to his contract being
bad this year. But.
Yeah, I mean they can save 10.6, seven, $10.7 million with a post
June 1st release next year. So that's he's gonna get caught
after the year. Yeah, I don't mind a comfy 4%
exposure to Elvin Kamara. Oh, I.
Priced that I. Think actually that's fine,
that's. Even four 4% I guess.
That's yeah. Yeah, we could use through the.
I we're we've got him like 3 spots behind ADP positionally,
which is kind of a lot when you like.
Yeah. Do it because like 2 running
backs total go from rounds 4 to 8.
So yeah, that's kind of a lot. And it's, I mean, an underdog 2,
the bowl case is obviously not as strong like the bowl case is
that he just, I mean, you've got it on the screen.
He led the league in running back catches per game, which is,
you know, it's, it's not nothing, especially if you're
playing full PPR. But an underdog, you know,
that's not going to add up as quickly, like you're going to
need some efficiency. Let let me hit you guys with a a
terrible take. I don't really believe but.
Look. Look at the Jamal.
Look at these Jamal Williams rushing efficiency stats.
Is it? Is it possible that the Kamara
bad efficiency stats are just St. stats and not Kamara stats?
I don't. I just couldn't.
I couldn't. I really couldn't sell that one.
I don't believe it at all. But.
I mean, I'm just. Trying to use my Tampa Bay
Rashad boy I'm. Trying to yeah, I'm.
Trying to. The thing I I'd say there is I
think like both these guys are like aging and not like like the
comp to like just Jamal Williams isn't like your strongest to
make this case. And even if it was, I was
talking to Brandon Thorne and I'm like, I know he's pretty
concerned about this New Orleans online possibly dropping off,
which is like not great if you've already got efficiency
concerns. The team is like falling into
the sea. It's insane.
The. Team is so bad.
It's so bad. Let's move on.
Here, so, which is another reason to not really be that
into Alvin Kamara. Yeah, right.
I mean, again, if you're gonna take him, Leonie said it
perfectly. If you're gonna take him, go to
DraftKings FFPC cause the there definitely are outcomes where
again, we've talked about how Baron the Saints depth chart.
Is I think the third round's a little early.
I wouldn't. I wouldn't do FFPC.
OK, sorry I don't know who's ADP over there.
My point was. I don't know either, but they
love their running backs. Yeah.
So like this, that's part of the issue honestly on the other side
this is we have more expensive. On other sites.
Like we have Kamara on DK, we have him in line with his
positional ADP, but we have him like even further behind his
overall ADP just because like those running backs are pushed
up further than they should. There So it's like, all right,
well, if the new if the new basketball website launches that
has similar ADP to underdog but his PPR, then that's where you
want to take Alvin Kamara. All right, so we're drafting
Taysom Hill at running back at a certain pick and we're drafting
Albany Kamara on a new new basketball site.
Yeah, exactly. That's the.
He's only he's only draftable on a hypothetical basketball
website. You guys have Najee ahead of him
now, right? I.
Don't let me. I think we have it pretty close.
Yeah, we have Najee one spot ahead of him, but like they're
pulled to ADP, so it'd be like probably more a couple more
spots if it was. If we didn't, he comes.
Out just ahead of ahead of Naji in the leg up rankings, but I
would have him behind Naji if the ADP had it that way.
That's like kind of more where I think he should probably go now.
I got a jump. I got a jump scare seeing Naji
all the way up to Running Back 20.
That was a little that was a little surprising that that one
had passed me by. I've been taking Naji to the
surprise of no, she's now yeah. Say the line, Bart.
But. Yeah, he could be.
He could be a jump the shark. He could be one of the jump the
shark guys that like he's in a perfect situation for his skill
set, right? They're going to run the ball a
ton. And he wasn't bad last year.
He was bad for two years, then he wasn't bad.
I like Jaylen Warren a lot more. I take a lot more Jaylen Warren,
but I'm taking Naji. I might, I might end up like a
little underweight, but I'm not going to have a fade like a true
fade on Naji. It just it just seems like it's
imprudent. And it's also like the the spot
they're in now, let's say Jaylen Warren's better.
And the team realizes that like Naji isn't dusted, whereas like
in the past year he might have just been dusted like.
There's so much volume in the same way we were like Warren can
get there even if Naji gets to work well, it could go the other
way like Naji could get there even if Warren is the 1A by the
end of the season. I'm just so I'm so poisoned by
Arthur Smith. I'm just like imagining the
Steelers being a really low scoring team and then Arthur
Smith just like Galaxy branding, like Justin Fields in the Taysom
Hill role, Cordell Patterson at the goal line.
I know that's like, not I'm definitely probably missing the
forest for the trees, but. I do have this reality but the
vibes are correct. Yeah, I I just have this fear
that they're gonna be like. We're gonna be be pretty bad.
For touchdowns on this team in general.
And then Arthur Smith is just gonna be like, all right,
Darnell Washington goal line package with Justin Fields at at
quarterback. It's just gonna be like.
What? Who's the quarterback?
No. Well, in, in the Taysom Hill
role, he's a, he's a rotational Taysom Hill type player in my in
my conjuring of the Steelers. Hey, if that's the first play,
Sam, you, you owe me. Yeah, if they come out, does
that count if they come up with Week 1 Russell?
He's a starter, baby. He started the pill.
Package he's. The first play of the game, he.
Started with. Spirit of the game versus
technical rules there. Yeah, I'm gonna need a lawyer.
I'm gonna need a lawyer if that happens.
Let's talk Eli Mitchell here and then we'll get to I should have
previewed this up front, but the the meat of the show is gonna be
talking about ETR rankings versus ADP last riser and fall.
We're gonna hit on here Elijah Mitchell, who I forget who
called out him in the game last week.
It might have been me, but he's up 10 spots by ADP to pick 188.
I don't think there's much to say here.
I think it's just like this is an obvious like Vadnais pricing
from the market in my opinion. Like he shouldn't go in the one
sixties one 50s I think. Is everyone on the same page
there I. Think there's I think like him
and CEH at this point in the year are obvious RB twos on good
offenses when we're taking like guys that might not see the
field and it's like that in in a month or two from now when like
we know what these other depth charts are, that might change.
But for right now, they're the best lay around clicks.
So I'm taking chi understand the case, but like I was getting to
where I had like a pretty big bag of Ch and it's there is this
talk that I you know, you kind of have with yourself when you
see the chapter exposure really creeping up and it's just like
this guy could be passed by anybody.
Anybody. Anybody.
And the and the Reece Samet dude isn't it.
He's like literally a special teamer.
They're not even teaching him running back.
Well, you want a little bit of Chiefs alpha here.
It's Oh yeah, I I learned a name.
I learned a name in the Chiefs backfield yesterday.
Carson, Carson Steele is the guy who all the coaches are are
talking about. I mean we're talking about like
a non athletic part time PAC 12 running back, like not a
prospect, but it's. Probably better than CEH.
Probably better than CEH, and that is that is the guy who
would kind of be like a passing down specialist too, which is
kind of what Pacheco is not where you might get yourself in
a spot where you have this giant Mazda Miata of of Clyde Edwards
Hilaire and it turns out he just is like inactive on game days.
And I know we're trying to avoid taking zero.
It's going to be inactive on game days.
This is like the. The odds of that are are pretty
low. I'm, I'm it's, it's for effect,
Michael. They gave him a million, they
gave him $1,000,000, a little more the.
Effect was that you you submarined a pretty good case to
that boy. Yeah, but that that he basically
gets. Davis like having a good point
but then ruining it by just going way overboard and then
like the tractors have something very easy to attack.
Well, he actually, if you, if you really, if you really want
to open your third eye, he could get past.
If Reed Sammit is the kick returner, if Reed Sammit is the
kick returner, if Carson Steel is the running back too, then
you find yourself. That's actually true if.
They like CEH, you know, like. They they definitely do not.
I think they. Like him relative to how much
they should like him. That's.
True. Yeah, that's true.
He's they obviously don't love him in the sense that he's been
replaced, but they've really had no choice to do that.
I, I guess it could happen again, but I guess I mean more
like like we're drafting over the course of this summer.
I think in a month or two, like you're, there's going to be
probably more bats to pick from in round 18.
But I'm just saying like, if you're picking today, I I don't
mind. Like I think you probably want
to be overweight. Like chapter and Elijah probably
get to go. Ahead, I would watch.
I would watch getting really overweight though, 'cause he
'cause like you're trying not to take a zero and Chapter is
probably not a zero, but like he's not the guy.
He's not like he's. Close last year to like being
like really important in the best ball playoffs.
No, he was he, he was the, he was the, I think the third
highest scoring running back in week 16 or fourth highest
scoring running back. Could be like a the Zay Jones of
running backs I suppose. Yes.
Well, it's just sounds. I mean, anyone who's starting
running back for the Chiefs is gonna have like a decent range
of outcomes no matter. Yeah, I remember Sharkandrick
West. Nile Davis.
Nile yeah, like. It's they're literally anyone.
And they use, I mean, like, he'll catch passes and McKinnon
does not look like he's coming back.
No, I think it's over for McKinnon.
Yeah, exactly. Pat, do you have that same
skepticism for Mitchell or is 'cause he's a guy that I would
be fine being like 35% on, right?
Now I I don't have the same skepticism in the sense that I'm
sort of like, but I worry with CEH is I just like look back on
these exposure. I'm like, why didn't I try a
little harder to find the dude and Mitchell, I don't feel that
way. He could be.
It's a little easier for me to see him being the dude because
he's been good when given the chance and they do seem to
believe in him. And you're getting a discount on
him because of Gorendo, who might be nothing.
He has been, you know, banged up, and I think they're pretty
frustrated with that. And so I could see him
sustaining some kind of minor injury and then potentially him
losing the RB2 job in season if Gorendo has any juice.
Or who's the dude out of Missouri?
Cody Schrader. Like the SEC leading rusher from
last year. Yeah, like that, that concerns
me a little. But he's definitely he's more
exciting to me because I could see him.
Yeah. So I I would say if you want to
get pretty overweight with him now and then start to mix in
other dudes. But I'm actually like, I'm fine
with like Tyron Tracy. I'm taking a little loud B now.
He's getting some good reports. Braylon Allen like, I think we
do have some other. Well, the Braylon Allen thing.
The opportunity evaporated in a day.
Yeah, he's still in loud B that's.
True, I think like Allen might feel better about, but like I I
don't know some of these other guys.
I'm still you're not. In on Tracy yet?
I there's definitely like spots where I click them, like
especially if I really feel like I need, I don't know, the home
run swing, but I just feel like I'll wait a month.
And even if I get him at a worse price, like fourteenth round,
you know, I don't think it's going to, yeah.
But there is kind of the leverage element within
bestball. I mean, like, if he turns out to
be like very clearly the RB2, he's going to be drafted on
every late team, but he'll be drafted on very few of these
teams. So not very few, but he's gonna
be drafted. Some of these guys will be
drafted less than like the CEH. He's probably not the best
example. Yeah, no, he's draft.
We've got him at 91% right now. He's not the best.
You're gonna get him at a worse price.
But I'm like, I'm not like overthinking that when it's like
round 13 versus. We're drafting teams, not
exposures, brother. I was having, I don't know, but
I, I do think Mitchell's a better play than Chapter in the
sense that, yeah. Yeah.
Like it's very very very unlikely Mitchell gets past a
non injury right Like. I I agree with that.
I mean. Like chapter, you can see it
like you guys said, like I don't think it's going to happen, but
it wouldn't be like shocking if it happened like Mitchell.
It'd be pretty shocking if like, Gorendo bites Mitchell.
I'd be pretty shocked by that just based on how.
Because it meant that they got a third round pick, right?
That would really be the shocking part of it.
Yeah, you mentioned before we go to the Leonie or ET Rs biggest
stances for ADP. Braylon Allen, who we mentioned
is also up 10 spots here, continues to get good buzz.
I I like him quite a bit in this range.
Yeah, market, market, learned Ball.
He he's about, he seems very locked in to the RB2 role.
Izzy had some kind of like issue He's getting.
He's getting mad, dude. There's no chance.
I mean, and then it's like Isaiah Davis versus Braylon
Allen. And Isaiah Davis hasn't really
impressed and Braylon Allen has and he was drafted higher.
Like this is a pretty easy one. He's he should continue to rise
quite a bit. Did anyone pick him for our game
yet? Who?
Braylon. Yeah, Braylon Allen.
No, but I think we're a little late on that one.
I did. Shit, what's the functional
difference between Braylon Allen and Ray Davis?
Ray Davis. Oh, Ray Davis's base role could
be a lot better than that's true than Braylon Allen's.
Yeah, he could have stand alone value without injury in a way
that Braylon I don't think really can.
Yeah, yeah, I agree. OK, let's get to.
So this is establish Iran's biggest targets versus ADP.
I redacted some names here. So you do still have to pay for
the rankings. You just can't use this chart
and get all the answers. But I did this based on raw ADP.
I realized that percentage basis is probably the better way to
look at it. But I thought this was an
interesting group of names of kind of deeper cuts, but guys
that we haven't really spent much time talking about it all
this offseason. And the first two names, this
really goes back to ADP chasing score content, the Giants wide
receiver room. I don't think that's true.
This is this is what made us. What we are this is.
What we're born to do. I I feel like.
On the map. I feel like I have to caveat
this whole list because like Sam said, he did it on on RAW and a
lot of these guys are of course, just very late round picks to
like you're not gonna have a ton of exposure to, you know, you're
not gonna go crazy on. Yeah, but this is the only way
to get Jalen Hyatt and Darius Slayton at the top of the list.
Exactly. Yeah, No, I.
I mean, we had to do. Yeah, I did it the other way.
And you know, with these three hour shows that we do every
week, we've basically talked about every single player in the
top 100. We we gotta go to 150 and beyond
to get the names that we haven't talked about yet.
So let's start with this giant stuff.
I think this is actually pretty interesting.
So I looked at with the Giants wide receivers last year.
I pulled their stats from weeks 3 to 17.
That was when all of Slayton, Wandale, and Jalen Hyatt were
all healthy and playing decent roles in those games.
Darius Slayton ran the most routes, followed by Wandale and
then Jalen Hyatt. I thought it was interesting
here is sort of looking at their slot rates and then trying to
figure out what's going to happen when the league neighbors
enters the fold here because he's obviously going to be
running, you know, close to 90% of the routes, maybe even closer
to 100. And he was 1/2 time slot half
time outside player at LSU. So I think that sort if they,
you know, I would think they want to use him in a similar way
for the Giants. I think the the way to get the
best out of these elite alpha wide receivers is to move them
around the formation. If he's running, you know, 50%
of his snaps in the slot, I think that really puts someone
like Juan Dale at risk of just not being on the field much and
makes makes Slayton and Hyatt sort of much better picks than
Wandale. Start with you, Leone is I
realize you guys are much higher on Slayton and Hyatt than than
Wandale. Is that part of the reason why
or how are you sort of viewing these giants slate around guys?
We just kind of have them underpriced as a collective.
You know there's we have Malik Neighbors, we have, we basically
have them all underpriced across the board, including Wandale a
little bit. I do have the least want to
draft Wandao because there's just tougher to see him hitting
a huge ceiling is. Half the Kate Dogg you don't
want your guys to have Dogg. Well, the 5.08 dot that you see
on the screen is like tougher and half the PR and he also goes
earlier. But essentially when you I mean,
there's just not a ton of competition for targets behind
Malik neighbors. And I think both Hyatt and
Slayton have nice, dare I say, better in basketball profiles
where they have big play upside, like they're deep threats.
And yeah, you know, it's there's some trust in Dabel getting this
offense a little bit more functional.
I think he's obviously underwhelmed as a coach the
first couple years, but I also think that they've had a bad run
out as a team. You know, it's kind of boring to
say, but I don't think they've. Well, you know, it's funny like
they made the playoffs with Daniel Jones year one, like he
he was like he exceeded expectations year one, but then
year two was just is bad. So now it feels like he was bad
but. Yeah, they wanna, they even want
a playoff game. They.
Want a playoff game? They they had a lot of injuries
at receiver that year too. You know, that was the year they
were really boring running the ball.
Isaiah Hodgins had eight 8105 and a touchdown on a 92% snap
share in a playoff game that the New York Football Giants won.
Like I, I think that the market to me and correct me if I'm
wrong, it feels like the market is kind of adjusting for the
quarterback uncertainty, both in terms of if they're not going to
make the playoffs, like Daniel Jones is not going to play
because of his crazy injury contract guarantees.
And if the market doesn't feel that certain in a quarterback
starting in week 17, they're not going to be as juiced on the
receivers. And also, you know the
expectation that neighbors is going to have like a 30% target
share, which you probably will. Yeah, and there's some
uncertainty about playing time. Like Slayton is boring, but he's
probably the best bet to just be out there a bunch because he's
an outside wide receiver and they kind of have too many dudes
who can play in a slot. To Sam's point, Hyatt didn't
they they were talking about moving him back into the slot
before they drafted neighbors. So like, I don't, I don't know
that neighbors in the slot necessarily opens up stuff for
Hyatt. I guess who like who else would
it be? But him on the outside is not
ideal necessarily. I, I think it's fine because the
whole thesis with Hyatt, I I don't foresee him being good
enough to earn like a really good target share role.
I think you're the upside why you want to take him in the 18th
round is he can do 2. Gabe Davis's in the.
Season. Absolutely, yeah.
Gabe Davis had like a 9095% route participation.
Like that's what I'm worried. I don't know how much he's out
there. Yeah, no, you need to run Pierre
on the routes. But even if you could get him to
like, I don't know, 70% routes and like, like, yeah.
I mean, I, I think it's pretty. Like some, there's some like,
you know, just blindly betting on like the year 2 shy a little
bit, yeah. Yeah.
I like that part of it and I I so I think these ADP's are
pretty clearly wrong for the later guys like 1 Dale 170
compared to Hyatt and Slayton that, you know, basically free
18th round not even being drafted in all all drafts.
I guess like OK, if if neighbors gets injured, then sure, I think
Wandale is maybe the most productive 'cause he goes back
to the full time slot role will earn more targets than these
guys. But when you have neighbors on
the field as a slot, it basically makes no sense to have
Wandale Robinson on the field at all.
Like you want Hyatt and Slaton clearing space, and they're the
guys who can actually play on the outside, so.
Wandale Robinson to be. He's just not that.
I mean 1.3 yards per route run last year with like 20% targets
for outrun. Like to me that seems like a
symptom of a broken offense. Like not a good.
Player it was broken. I mean it was broken.
You missed the whole Tommy DeVito arrow.
Say yeah, it's. Broken because it's broken
because they had to use Wandale as their best.
Veto. No, I'm pushing.
I'm pushing. I'm actually going to push back
on this. It was broken because they had
like the worst offensive line in the NFL and they had probably
the worst quarterback play. Wandale less than what was it an
11 month ACL recovery doesn't end up on pup at all.
Misses two games where he was on the the 53 but was a healthy or
a quote UN quote healthy scratch and then LED the team in targets
and receptions. Now, obviously the touchdowns
didn't like it was an awful offense.
But I, I think this idea like 01 L so small is yards is yards per
out run is, is like, I think it's a little bit overboard for
a guy who like very could conceivably have 100 receptions
if things broke the right way for him.
Like, I'm not saying that's even likely, especially without a
neighbor's injury, but he's earned targets at the NFL level
in a way that Slayton and Hyatt have not.
Yeah, but. I don't know, the Slayton Hyatt
probably won't even be active on game day.
The type the type of targets he earns though are like.
Are not that valuable on underground.
Or you're hoping the offense, when it's more functional,
become a little bit more valuable.
I mean like I'm. Yeah, but what is that?
Yeah, I agree with that Leonie, but I don't know, I feel like
more functional looks like Malik neighbors in the slot half the
time. Dude they have fucking know, but
Malik neighbors could have a 30% target share and wand out and
still get to like 20% like that. Yeah.
I I might, I might even say. I might even say.
That likely but like dude they have nobody to throw to.
Yeah, that's true. There's no tight ends on this
team at all, not really any running back.
You know, if Singletary's playing most of the time he's
not a high target earner, so. I get it might.
Run a decent amount of four wide receivers the.
Offense is good. Yeah, they have no tight end.
They have no tight end to speak of.
And I mean, we're only going to get, you're only going to get
this on ADP chasing. No one else out there is brave
enough to be the one Dale Bowl. But I I do just want people to
remember this team's running backs.
Devin Single, 28 year old Devin single, Terry, Tyrone Tracy and
Eric Ray. You could see one.
They'll get 40 carries I think, no.
No, no, under. That's bad Under.
How many did he have last year? 9 4040 carries 40 carries was
like the role he had in college where where?
I actually don't think like if you said like 25, I actually
don't think that's that crazy 'cause I I could.
Sure, 25's not 40, but yeah, 40. Is bull posting?
Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
Yeah, I mean. I've got 60% of what you just
said then sure. Sure.
I just we're going. Back to the Davis.
I just think, I think, I think the idea I.
Just comes in where they get 40 carries.
Well, I just think the idea that, oh, Slayton and Hyatt are
these really strong, like late round values, like they have
these ceilings and like 01, that was just boring.
And he stinks when he came back from the ACL injury last year
and was in like this complete non functional offense.
I also pre pre ACL he he had a couple games where he would just
earned a shit ton of targets. Yeah, like 40 got hurt.
He had 31 targets on like 97 snaps as as a rookie.
And they're they were like low value targets, but it's
certainly. I I would.
Still, he was mostly multi. Ligament with him, like I I was
kind of I was having trouble cooking him last year, even
though he had the exciting rookie year because of the
injury. But his yeah, we you know, I
think it doesn't make sense for us to go, oh, it's multi
ligament. He might take a while to come
back and then he could takes a while to come back and we're
like, he sucks now, like he was coming off a multi ligament knee
tear. So he might be better this year.
I'm not saying. Bullying Sam into a 4% Wandell
position. No.
I'm not sure I am. I'm not taking a ton of Wandell,
I'm taking him. 0% of the time it's just that like.
Circle back. I'm like at this point in the
draft though, like it's not that frequent where I'm taking like a
one off, yeah. That's also.
That's also a good point. Like, I don't know how much of
these guys I'm getting, even though I think like in a vacuum,
I like them a lot more than some of these other bets.
But like so often, like I have to need a wide receiver late to
draft them. I have to have almost no
correlations available for me to draft them.
So like it's, you know, it still just doesn't happen a ton.
I mean. Yeah, I'm taking, I'm taking.
But it's, you know, we're not talking like 20% positions even
with the huge AVP value gap. Yeah, I'm taking like Javon
Baker over these guys, even though I like Baker less in a
vacuum because I need to figure out quarterback.
Yeah, if you're looking for one offs, I think there's like
bigger cuts quote UN quote that are available later than one
day. All that just make a lot more
sense. And again, I'll just go back to
you like if, if it's going to be a rotation between these.
Three guys, which I think we all probably agree with, like, you
know, it's probably gonna be all three of them playing like 60 to
80% of the snap, something in that range.
I kind of want the guys that can make my line up off one or two
plays. And to me that's that's Hyatt
and Slayton much more than one Dale.
I don't know, like I think. Slayton could be between 80 and
90% of our participation consistently.
Yeah, that's. That's exactly.
Yeah. If he's not, I'm drafting too
much of us. Yeah, All right.
That was solid. 20 minutes on the Giants, I think a little bit
less than our normal 30. Move on to another exciting
player, Derek Carr. Definitely Hero Fantasy podcast.
I've talked about Derek Carr so far this offseason.
Leonie, you're 30 spots higher than the market on him.
I've actually before we get into cars specifically, I've got
that's. The most one grand thing of all
time. Hey, I just like and.
This is like, that's why I hate doing like just on this, but
like the way we do our ranks, you know, 'cause it's based off
projections and upside cases, but we're not like going in and
manually changing stuff for like the best ball mania strategy,
right? So like Derek Carr, I think.
I like cartoon by the way. I'm like 20 peaks ahead of ADP.
No, actually I just need. A back for a stack like I think
Derek Carr's really good. I think his odds of getting
benched later in the season are less than some of the other
quarterbacks going late, which is like probably the primary
difference like driving us higher on him than some of these
other quarterbacks. We just don't really see a big
scenario where he gets benched. Like Herzik did an article on
this, going through it and like, he's like at that QB, he could
suck, but it just, it seems kind of unlikely he's gonna get
benched unless he's hurt. Agree.
Or I guess there's lots of. Rattlers like randomly like
really really good, but that seems you mean based on where
he's drafted like pretty pretty low on.
I've I've raised up his benching risk as a possibility with with
our rank. He's seen like several times and
Daniel's just been like, dude, he can't.
I mean to keep in mind because he feels so benchable, but like
the contract is not he's locked in for 2025.
He's locked in. So yes, they could bench him,
but they're benching him because the season was a disaster.
He's looked like absolute garbage and you lost the bet
anyway. So that's the kind of bench risk
we have to accept. You know, the the guy was a
terrible pick and he got benched at that point.
Who cares? The bench risk that sucks is
like the Daniel Jones bench risk.
That's why it worries me. He's like, Daniel Jones could
play like pretty well and put up fantasy points.
And then they, you know, lose 10 games and they're like, yeah, we
we don't want to do this again next year.
And. He Russell Wilson, the the
Russell Wilson to get it. It happened.
We we saw it. Yeah.
Yeah, I think and then moving away from the bench stuff if I
do want to get like pro car. I mean, he's had some games with
like huge pass attempts, like, yeah, back-to-back 50 plus pass
attempt games in the middle of the season.
You know, he went for 303 in the first week of the fantasy play
offs last year. Like, he's not devoid of putting
up a big week. He's obviously not going to give
you anything on the ground, but you take a lab early, you know,
you get your heat in the middle rounds again.
Like, it kind of sucks that Juwan got hurt because there's
not too much besides those guys in Juwan to stack him with.
But yeah, the one in a lab, eight teams that I would be
taking him on, but I am high on a lab.
I think a lab is going to have, you know, a better season than
he did last year. Yeah.
They need me to 8 AT Perry's there for you in in around 18.
They had, I hate to give in to like the offseason talk too
much, but they they did not have like great comments on his
development. Dennis Allen is very negative
about everything, but he especially negative about a 2.
Perry. He's like, he's like, yeah, he
kind of needs to work on all of it.
So he he listened to ADP chasing where I made-up the stat about
him playing 900 snaps and getting 54 targets.
And he's like, absolutely, yeah, I get it.
Yeah. The other thing is back to the
benching risk quickly is like this division is so bad that
like it could honestly be like week, week 17, the Saints are
4:00 and 11:00 and if they won the next two games, they're
they're in the playoffs. Like, I don't know, like this
this division is is awful. So that's the last thing I want
to say on on car if anyone wants anything else.
To say I I had one other thing, which is like to Leone's point
about there being a difference between ranking players properly
and drafting with strategy and game theory in mind, which is
Carr's risk of injury and and slipping production is back
weighted in the sense of if the Saints are are seven win team
and Carr separates his shoulder again, he's unlikely to be
playing in weeks 1516 and 17. Whereas with May and McCarthy
and Justin Fields or or take your pick of your quarterback 25
or later, their risk is front weighted where they're unlikely
to be playing early. They could.
Get hurt too, I mean. Well, I mean, look, anyone could
get hurt, but their car has repeatedly gotten hurt.
But I don't. Know injury I will say we
probably we aren't factoring in cars, the car being like more
likely to get injured. I think he played every game
last year despite like having all the the injuries and stuff
he did. I I compare it more like what
like Pat did with Daniel Jones though, like in terms of the
risk like that's why he's added Daniel Jones.
He also like crying kind of crazy, but like, he threw 14
touchdowns in his last five games like.
I mean, that is crazy, Yeah. I mean, I don't know that I even
agree with that. That part of it Davis cause it's
like his coaching staff that like the whole, the only sell is
that like we might make the playoffs.
You know. And they kind of have to keep
that alive 'cause there's there's no future for this team.
The salary caps in, you know, it's, they're in salary cap
hell. They they have not been building
the the team is basically crumbling and they have to just
kind of be like, but we might get the seven seed.
That's like the whole play. So if Carr is able to come back
and they can fight for the seventh seed, they got to do it.
All right, I, I I think I can see it.
I I'm probably too take locked on backdooring May right now
I'm. Backdooring the may a lot.
So so I probably. Need both.
Well, not if you're taking 40% of every guy.
It's a little bit harder. But but my issue I guess would
be is I'm not taking Shaheed a ton and I wasn't taking Johnson
a ton. So then it's like, what am I
doing? Yeah, right.
It's I think you can't draft him without him being staffed.
So almost, you know, it's almost immaterial you.
Know you almost can't draft him with without a law they.
Almost I think it's without I guess.
You you. I think you draft him with
Shaheed. You, you could do it.
But I think like to me, he's, I'm not saying never, but he's
one of the more binary players in the player pool for me.
Like if I have a Lave, I'm maybe even reaching a round or two and
just locking up Derek Carr because that correlation of a
Lave big weeks with Carr big weeks has got to be one of the
strongest. I would say it's got to be like
literally 1 to one. Like, almost, yeah.
Shaheed again like he yeah, I would love to have the double
stack with Shaheed, but it still like seems a little thin like
the Derek Carr Shaheed stack getting me there but.
I mean it could be, it could be if you really want to expand
your brain, it could be like your let's say car has a good
fantasy season or alave is a good fantasy season but you get
a car Shaheed team through and Shaheed shortens the game by
making you know he he has scores 2 long touchdowns or whatever
and that eliminates 2 series for for Alave to do his thing.
That's very Galaxy brain though. Yeah, I think we've gone to, I
think we can move on to Chick. Leonie, you feel free to host
the show if you want. I'm getting, I'm getting kind of
it. Is.
We got we got heart outs here. So these takes him like Leonie
just taps out. I can't believe.
We got through the dancing. Conversation without talking
about Taysom Hill, by the way. That was that was really.
That was emotional maturity on my part.
I just want that recognized Leonie.
I'm I'm fascinated by this because I feel like if the Levis
thing goes how the Titans want it to, Chigg could be like
almost like the guy you had to have a tight end like the
advance rate Super Brewster. If all this stuff they're saying
about pass rate is real, who's taking who's the third option on
this offense? Like he could totally out earn
Boyd by like a ton. Yeah, I mean Chick, the guys
we've talked about so far, Chick's the one that I will be
drafting the most of and I'm most excited about because he's
less dependent on like other things going right in your bill.
He fits a lot of different bills.
If you have a three tight end team, you can have him in A2
tight end team with an elite tight end.
I think, you know, the stats there are like not good for him.
Last season he was much more efficient his rookie year.
So obviously our projections are waving that some.
I think a lot of people are just looking at last year's
efficiency stats. I honestly think we have a
pretty conservative outlook on him.
We know tight ends quite often take a few seasons to break out.
So you know, a third year guy who's super athletic offense
that could be transformed, still probably not going to be great,
but they're probably going to throw a lot more.
There's some unknown. The uncertainty I think favors
his range of outcomes. I don't know, I'm just really
into Che. And if you look at the other
late round tight ends, it's just harder to tell yourself a story
as far as them like really like, like if there's a guy that's
gonna break out and be a top eight tight end or the late
tight ends, I feel like Chig is the best bet.
Yeah, I think you're. Right.
Really. I haven't heard many bulk cases
around, but I like that Pat. I'm curious, where do you guys
have him we're. We're not that into him.
He's the the route participation last year was was pretty low at
times. I'm just pulling it back up.
He he, he ticked back up at the end of the year, which is
encouraging. But yeah, the efficiency dropped
off. He was promising as a rookie,
but also in kind of a limited role.
They haven't tended to emphasize the tight end with the, you
know, in Cincinnati. So I'm not sure if we're gonna
get like a big. But it was all jamokes like.
It was all jamokes, but like, I don't know.
I haven't seen enough at a chig where I'm like, is he any better
than like an Herb Smith or you know, any of these other dudes?
Like he's he. I don't know, I I guess.
I think I think he could be. I think he we've seen so little
of him be like heavily targeted that I'm not ready to put him in
like the Gassicki tier. You know, it feels to me this
feels like the Chan Gailey year in Miami, Pat, where it's like
this this guy, he's athletic, he's flashed.
There's no real there's really not anyone standing in his way.
And if he's good and he can earn targets, he's just going to be a
smash. But it might just be like is.
This the MM Gassick year I. Well, I'm saying this is the
third year where and Gatiki never did anything right or he
had the one year. I was completely out.
There was one year where he got really expensive and I was
completely out that year. But I think this is almost like
the year before that where he's like, it's time for him to
flash. I'm maybe we're a little too
low. I could see him.
We're like two spots behind ADP. We're actually like, we're not
that low, but so. I just look at the other guys in
the tight end and I'm like, you know, like Tyler Conklin goes
ahead of him, Kate Otting goes ahead of him.
But I know I'm getting. Routes here I don't know.
You're getting routes with Kate Otten like for sure, which I
know what I mean. They're just I actually like, I
actually like I'm a little bit more than I.
Ranked Otten Otten is an Otten Eliminator ass pick.
Yeah, he is an eliminator pick for sure.
Yeah. But these are the Titans, other
tight ends Josh Wiley, Nick Vanette and some UDFAS like.
Their plan is to play him a lot, I think.
Well, The thing is, so his play action rate was pretty low last
year. It was it was decent his rookie
year, but it was it was low last year.
He's an undersized tight end. I don't like I don't know that
it will be like it. It depends on what they're
looking for is do they want the tight end involved in run
blocking a lot? Do they want the tight end to be
kind of a yards after catch playmaker?
If they do, then like Oconquo is going to get a lot of playing
time. If they want like an extra
lineman, it's not Oconquo. So that's.
I I haven't. Established.
There's not. There's right, don't even know
there's routes where this goes very bad for sure, but where
he's going like 17 points, 1617 LB tight end, like I don't know,
I I think it's a good, good gamble to take.
I should probably take a little bit more of them.
Yeah. I I.
Think I'm gonna start working him in.
Yeah, his career yards per out run.
So he had 2.6 yards per out run as a rookie, which is insane.
1.3 last year, which is not still not like bad for a tight
end. You take the average in all of
his routes he's running his career, he's at 1.7.
That would put him in the same range as Sam Laporta, David and
Joku Cole Comet last year. So pretty, pretty high end tight
end names there again. Yeah, I think the main thing
with him is is the route risk 'cause I would expect the
efficiency for him to be pretty good and we didn't see it much
last year, but his rookie season we did see some pretty awesome
like catch a pass, break a tackle, take it to the house
plays. He showed some explosiveness for
sure. So yeah, definitely seems like a
tight end I'd want to mix in in this range.
It's if he did like an in joke, if he did like an in Joku, would
we really be that surprised? Where it's like he he kind of
stinks. He doesn't play a lot and then
all like all of a sudden he's just just running all the
routes. I mean, we might be surprised,
but it's hard. It's also hard for the Titans
passing game to be more, you know, much worse than it was the
last two seasons. Exactly.
Yeah, there's definitely going to be a lot more volume.
I think they they've been extremely clear that they plan
to pass way more. Well that so it's like, that's
kind of like a best laid plans thing.
Like I've been like, I want to get hyped up reading all this
stuff about Levis and like, oh, we got him Ridley like and it's
all going to, we're going to be so forward thinking.
And like, I think that's easy to say when Will Levis is throwing
against air. And then it might be different
in week 3 when you're just like getting shit canned by the
Texans or whatever because Levis just threw 4 picks.
So I think they're all kind of priced appropriately for the
risk. Let's move on here to talking
about Kirk Cousins. I think this is the the more
interesting benching risk conversation that I wanted to
have here. ETR, you guys have him at pick
120, he goes at ADP of 145. I've actually been playing or
I've been pretty bearish on Kirk 'cause I am really worried about
the Pennex late season benching risk and I do think I can
capture a lot of the Falcon stuff without actually taking
Kirk. So I'm curious Leone, what are
your, what are your thoughts on that 'cause I I know you are
baking in some of the the benching risk with the work
Kerzig has done. Even with that risk, do you
still think Cousins is a really good value?
Yeah, I think so. I mean, I'm definitely open to
us being too aggressive in terms of ignoring the benching risk.
I just think that this first year is really gonna be Cousins.
He got this massive deal. They can get out of it after
like two years. And I mean, they're, they're
decent sized favorites to win the division here.
So yeah, there's, I mean, it's hard.
Like there's an element of like, if he gets benched, like things
probably went to shit anyways and your team's dead.
Like I I don't want to overthink that way 'cause I think that's
a. Dangerous.
No, that's such a that's such a good point, Mike, that actually
like is so important to think about when you're making these
decisions. Like if you already took, you
know, you, you slapping it up and took tight end 6 Kyle Pitts
and and Kirk Cousins is not playing in week 10.
Like you're already dead. You're you're, you're.
You know. It doesn't matter though.
If he gets straight up benched, like, and then when you say
you're dead, there's definitely outcomes where like you, they're
good enough and like the teams, just not, you know, the teams
like, I don't know. Yeah, 'cause to yeah, that's
push back on that is like what if Kirk Cousins Achilles is just
bad, he gets benched, then Michael Pennock's 9th overall
pick is like good and can support London and Pitt.
Like, I don't think it's that crazy that like, London and
Pitts can be good and Cousins was like a disaster like to me.
I don't know, we we might build in some more bench risk, but I
think in general, the reason we're so high on him if like if
you feel good about the benching risk not being that high, I just
think this offense could be really, really good.
I think, you know, the I'm looking at our stuff here, but
like in terms of skill players, I mean you've got Bijon Pitts
and Drake London's like an amazing kind of set of skill
players. Darnell Mooney's a down the
field guy. You know, there's some
excitement for rundown Moore. I I just think it could.
Be Oh, just come in the. Division that they're playing in
a Dome, the division is pretty weak.
So I'm, I'm pretty, I don't know.
I don't know, I don't know Ball enough to know if this is true
or not, but people are saying their defense is much worse as
well, like one of their corners left I think or something.
Well. When you take the 8th overall
pick on a backup quarterback. Yeah, definitely to.
Help your defense very much when you could have the best defender
in the draft. I I wanted to look at some stuff
with it here. Go ahead, Sam I.
View this one as differently than like Carr.
Like Carr, I think as low bench risk.
And in the situations where he's benched, he was so bad anyway.
It doesn't really matter. I don't feel that way about
Cousins. I'm not like panicked about the
bench risk. But I agree, Sam, that it's like
a concern because if they're eliminated from playoff
contention, you know, and it's December 29th, we're not seeing
Pennix. Yeah, that's where I'm at.
We. Have to.
We almost have to see him in that situation.
Like, yeah. So that's the thing, like, it's
like, how bad does Kirk have to be for this team to miss the
playoffs? And it's like not that bad.
And maybe like, like, maybe good for us, but bad for real life
'cause he throws too many picks and he melts down in some big
spots and the defense is bad and he puts a lot of fantasy points
in a loss, that kind of stuff. Like I think you could kind of
feel like, you know, it could be kind of Howl esque where like he
got there, but he'd still gets benched because the team didn't
do enough. And you know, a little different
than than Howl in the sense that he wasn't at the the 8th overall
pick right behind him. So that they're even more
incentivized to to see what they have.
So, I mean, they're pretty incentivized to know what they
have in Pennix. I mean, Kirk Cousins has missed
the playoffs with some pretty good pass catchers before.
Like their times? Yeah, their average team total
is like 23 1/2. For the playoff weeks, it's
24.2. It's a really high team total,
which plays into it. On the benching risk, I think
we're probably light the odds that he gets benched.
We'll probably tighten that up a little bit.
We'll still be ahead of ADP, but it'll probably come down some.
But I'm also ahead of ADP. This all shows me criticizing
ranks that I generally agree with.
I mean, it is good to talk through the ranges and but I'm
trying to where's the dude I'm looking.
I hate navigating the draftking sports books.
It's so bad but I'm. Trying to like 4 spots ahead of
ADP. Yeah, it's just the other thing
I'll say is obviously you don't make any of these picks in a
vacuum. It depends on who you what pass
catchers you have. But to me, it's just like a
little bit crazy, like you just pay up like another round or two
and you're in the Justin Herbert golf to to a Lawrence range like
those guys. Those guys could all be on bad
teams or like teams that aren't making the playoffs, so they're
not getting benched like you know what I mean?
So I just, I mean I worry with the.
Falcons are like the fair line on the Falcons to make the
playoffs is like -220 that's to make it.
So you're talking like what's that percentage wise, you know
and that? Actually understates that's.
To make. That's to make yeah, not.
Just under. Like because they need to be
made. In week 17 or something.
Right, right, right. OK.
So part of the reason I still think we're probably like the
odds he gets benched. But one in five, he's a he's a
potential maybe that overstates. They are eliminated from the
playoffs and not 100% chance it would be Penix but I don't know
like even one in 10 that he's not playing because he got
benched I don't love. It and also like yeah, I I don't
know like there I think again, this is getting into Galaxy
brain territories, but there there certainly are situations
again, we're talking about what like a 40 year old quarterback
coming off a torn Achilles like no.
No, no, no. You switched him with Rogers.
No, but come on, let me lie a little bit.
Come on, you. You're lying.
That's that's my bit. He turns 30.
Six in August. OK.
He's not even. He's 35 today.
Still, I I think we should factor in just like in, in terms
of benching risk, I'm not talking injury risk like we're
100% sure that guys you know who are 36 coming off.
Because I actually want to push back on, on Fudd on Fudd here.
I I think that Kirk Cousins is probably just like a really good
pick. Like probably you just take, you
take your Drake London, you take your Kyle Pitts.
And it's really that simple of like we're finally going to see
these insane players, Drakeland and Kyle Pitts, Bijon Robinson
with whoever ends up being better out of Mooney or Rondale.
I mean, I think we all know where my money is AT in and
that's that, that one V1 like Kirk Cousins, just like lives to
have 308 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and one interception
like that. That's that's just the Kirk
Cousins stat line. Yeah and that's what we're still
like I said we're a little hit ADP on him and you know we are
trying to find ceiling outcomes and like he's we like.
His ceiling outcomes is really good.
Ceiling outcomes really good they're going to pass way more.
You know he's pretty easy to stack like you can get like
Pitts is kind of on the same side of the board as London.
So if you want to double stack it, it's it's easy enough.
So, yeah, I mean, he he makes me a little nervous, but you don't,
you don't like, it would be pretty easy to look back and be
like, wow, I didn't take any Kirk Cousins, which, you know,
was one of the the most obvious offenses to improve in a huge
way. Yeah.
And very double stackable, including with a tight end.
So I don't, I don't want to be out.
I just, I'm just giving you the reasons why we're not like way
into him. Yeah, I think that was that was
a good discussion. That's that's fair.
Yeah, that was a good. Their their last two playoff
weeks are home versus the Giants and then at Washington.
Obviously you get outdoors at Washington, but pretty high team
totals right now for those last two.
Yeah, certainly not. Last thing I'll say, certainly
not someone I'm avoiding if I have his pass catchers.
I think I'm just kind of happy to catch him when he falls past
ADP and and maybe look for alternatives.
Well, yeah, when you when you take London hits you, you try
and push him, you try and push him to the next pick or
whatever. Yeah, and I'm, I'm sure your
rankings aren't saying Lahny, you're not.
Quarterbacks too. I mean, are you out taking Kirk
Cousins if you don't have London or Pitts like I mean.
Right. Like probably not like if like
if he really, really falls, maybe you take him and do
something with like Mooney Rondell backdoor, but like like
like probably not so. Who who's less likely to be the
naked like? Like you take this guy, let's
even say eighteenth round, just like the hypothetical like toy
game, you, you can take Tua or Kirk in the 18th round, but none
of their teammates who's less likely to be on the the BBM 5
winning roster, is it? I think Tua is more likely to be
on the roster than Kirk. Naked because of naked.
Yeah, I think he's more likely to run for a touchdown.
I think he's more likely to just have a hyper efficient game.
And also Tyreek's so expensive that you know he could.
Oh yeah, that is a good point. I mean, London's pretty
expensive. Yeah, yeah, I think.
Yeah, I think it is to it 'cause you could maybe cover Tyreek
with or even beat Tyreek with another first out pick and
enough goes through it. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah. Malachi, Corley here.
I think I maybe even saw some discussion in the ETR slack
today about Corley. So maybe this one's coming down
slightly, Leone, but you guys are 25 spots ahead of ADP on
Corley. Curious what the case is for
Corley here. Yeah, in part Anthony and Miko,
who does their dynasty stuff is really high on Corley.
So some of that's translating to our basketball rankings.
I think with Corley too, he could carve out a role here
getting a lot of like short a dot stuff you think of like how
Randall Cobb and things were used by.
I was wondering if you would invoke Randall Cobb.
I mean, how could you not? I was hoping.
It would you've got you've got like this, I don't know, decent
combination of there's room for early playing time with Mike
Williams getting eased in, but then also you get like the
rookie end of your upside thing. I think we were too high on him,
like you said, we talked about and we're going to bring him
back because we had him somewhat close to Polk, which is just
wrong given the draft capital difference between the two and
Polk's odds that, you know, just being the number one wide
receiver on the team, which corely has zero shot of being.
But there's also a lot more potential offensive efficiency
for The Jets than there is for the Patriots.
There's not a ton to it. I mean, really, it's like a guy
that they really, really wanted. They took him first pick of the
third round. Yep.
And I think he's just a little bit under drafted for his draft
capital, especially if you look where the rookies in general are
going in the market. It's so funny because he was the
slappy pick in February. Like when all of us nerds were
doing the big board, like everyone was like, Oh my God,
Malachi Corley. Like I I was saying, I said on
this whole cast, I thought he was going to be the ship chasing
player this year. Like he he's kind of, I mean,
he's he had a real gimmicky role at Western Kentucky, but it's a
gimmick that Rodgers loves. I mean, Rodgers has always loved
that, that I mean, he loves wide receiver screens, but he also
loves the the pop pass and like the four yard crosser.
Like Rodgers has like always. He like checks into it all the
time. You can like watch him do it.
And the thing I like about this ranking is it does the correct
thing, which it pretends Mike Williams doesn't exist, which is
the correct position to take for fantasy football in 2024.
You might have done the Davis thing of over overstating your
point at the end. I think you did.
Leone right at the end. Leone was nodding.
And then he just was. Corley.
Corley is the Corley is the style.
Corley is the style pick. He he stylistically fits with
Rogers much more than a jump ball guy.
Yeah, I think Corley's fine. Like I we rated ADP with him, I
end up with him a decent amount. I don't I'll pull up my exposure
but. If you can backdoor stack him
like you can backdoor. Stack him yeah.
You mentioned Conklin. I, I take Conklin a fair amount
because of the same reason. I yeah, I'm at 14% Corley.
So I'm, I have been cooking him quite a bit even though we don't
have him ranked super high. But yeah, if you need, if you
need a backdoor stacks or, or if you need to, if you're looking
for a week 17, bring back correlation on Josh Allen's
stuff. And Josh Allen's really cheap
compared to last year. So I'm, I'm taking some of the
fourth round. Josh Allen, I, I have a lot of
him on those teams as well. The.
Conklin thing. Too like the back door stack I
definitely have Conklin if I'm back door stack and like I don't
I'm fine with Conklin. I just meant like in terms of
like breakout. Potential.
Yeah, I'm at 6%, Conklin. Nothing.
Nothing crazy. He's definitely someone, though,
like Rodgers has a great game. He can carry Conklin along with
him for a week, get you 14 points with with the touchdown
and that be enough. And yeah, so you can do Rodgers
sometimes slips a ton and you can do Rodgers, Corley, Conklin
like. If the Wilson drafter, if the
Wilson drafter passes on Rodgers, like he could just go,
he could just fall and fall and fall.
If the if the Garrett Wilson drafter does something else now
you take you. Yeah.
Do you like, do you like Corley or Burton more 'cause this is
when it's uncorrelated. I almost always take Burton
first. Although I think I need to re
evaluate Burton now that T is like officially on the franchise
tag 'cause that takes away like 5% of his outs.
Yeah, we have Corley ahead of Burton right now, but it's very,
very close. I kind of like Burton a little
bit more. Like I feel myself.
He's got the crazy contingent value.
Yeah, I feel like it's easier for me to see where he's like a
a big difference maker, but I don't know what.
What are you gonna say, Sam? Yeah.
I was just gonna say like, I think his ceiling as like an NFL
player, like three, I don't know, two years from now is a
lot higher than Corley's. I can kind of see the contingent
upside both ways, though, like if Garrett Wilson goes down, The
Jets are gonna have to learn like 5 Malacore Coralie screens
a game. So I, yeah, I think that one's
actually really close. I I think I do also, Davis, you
made a good point. I had been baking in the like 10
percent, 20% chance T Higgins has gone into my head when I was
taking Burton. Now that's out the window.
So I gotta re evaluate. That was like 2% guys, you guys.
Are I said 5%, I said 5%, so I was directionally accurate.
Yeah, that that one's a huge toss up.
Probably really dependent on like just stacking and stuff.
I had another, another question. I don't know if like this is
kind of getting into Galaxy brain territory, but when you're
talking about the the bring back stack with Corley, when you have
Josh Allen teams, has anyone looked into like what type of
Arc type of player is a better bet as a bring back on a stack
'cause I can kind of see it both ways.
Like to to go back to the Giants example, say you stacked up the
Colts and you're looking for a Giants bring back.
Is the like PPR scam archetype like Wandale the better bring
back or or is it the Jalen Hyatt?
Like one play and you get it all those points.
Like, I think that's actually valuable to know, but I have no
idea what the answer is. I don't know.
I mean, even for DFSI don't know it, it'd be interesting to look
into. I think that it'd be pretty
neutral just 'cause I, I could really see, I mean, you can see
the scenario where The Jets are just throwing because they're
down by a ton because Allen dominated and you want the guy
who's just going to get a shit ton of targets.
Or you could see the theory that, like, oh, Jalen Hyde
scores a long touchdown and speeds up the entire game, and
now that's good for everybody, like.
What I would, what I would say too is with this type of bring
back correlation, you're sort of just trying to think that like
Rogers is awesome. This was an awesome year for
Rogers. His salary in a week 17 match up
would be a lot higher then we would have been set week 1.
So is Corley's, so is Garrett Wilson's right.
So you're you're going in the projections, you know, the ETR
projections have this game, you know, like you want to be
attacking this game, get lots of pieces, but it's hard to fit.
That's what you're trying to think.
And then obviously you want the game to play out a certain way
where all these guys hit. But that's, that's part of why I
think the week 17 correlation works is that you're, you know,
you're hoping that you're, you marry two wins and then the two
wins play each other and produce a lot of points.
Got it. Pat.
I know you had to go in a couple minutes.
Was there something? No, I got, I got, I got like
another 10 minutes. Another 10 minutes.
OK, let's let's keep going here. We.
Talk about 'cause I'm actually really curious to get your guys
thoughts on Garrett Wilson. I know we're supposed to only
talk about the players at the very back, but Garrett Wilson at
the very top. I'm I would love to get more
Garrett Wilson, but I haven't been taking him over Puka and I
haven't been taking him over A.J.
Brown. I I think I might take him over
A.J. Brown now I'm starting yeah, I
think I'm starting to get some vibes that this could be like a
crate like a nut season from him.
If if he is like Rodgers guy, like, you know, you guys know,
like he's incredible anyways, He's like Garrett Wilson's
amazing anyways. But if Rodgers just decides this
guy's catching the ball 120 times, there is literally
nothing stopping him from doing so.
I don't know man, I A.J. Brown has put up 1500 yards in
like 10 T DS ish and back-to-back seasons.
I think if Garrett Wilson does that, we're like super pumped.
I don't know like I get the the Eagles non derogatory.
That's. Fair non.
Derogatory. That's fair.
Is just this face now? Yeah.
If I say that's the, the new, that's fair is just silence.
Yeah, 'cause no one wants to say anything, but I don't know, man.
Like the Eagles were like look at AJ Brown's first half splits
last year, which I'm kind of taking as when Jalen Hurts was
healthy and he was on track to break fantasy.
I know we kind of remembered the back half of the year.
To me, to me, it just seems like overthinking things going
Garrett Wilson over A.J. Brown.
I, I'd still do want Garrett Wilson at whatever that next
pick is after A.J. Brown for sure.
But I, I am pretty high on A.J. Brown this year.
I I don't definitely don't want to be fitting him.
Yeah, I'm with Sam on A.J. Brown, My hot takes.
I think I think London's a better pick than Garrett Wilson,
but. Whoa, I oh God, I'd love when
Leonie has a hot take. I'd I'd book you action on that,
Davis. I don't I no, I, I think I think
you have a great chance of being right.
I well, I might book it. I didn't think about it, but I
think it's like a fair. What's the what's the rationale
there? Leonie I.
Think that well, he's got two kind of dusty quarterbacks
coming off an Achilles injury, but I think that.
One is 4 years younger. Well, one is 4 years younger.
Yeah. Rodgers Cousins is better than
Aaron. Rodgers.
I think Cousins is better than Aaron Rodgers at this point in
his career. I also think there's just like.
I like that. Because he's a weirdo and
there's some like unquantifiable risk with.
Them so true, yeah. So no Cousins Ben's risk, but
you've got weirdo risk baked in, no?
No, no, I don't have. This is my, this is my personal.
This is not baked into the projections this.
Is, I mean, can you, Can you imagine what Rogers is going to
be doing on a like the, the week of the election?
How focused is Rogers going to be?
What week is the election? Yeah, that's up on the jet
schedule. That's only like week 11 or
something. I think you have the yards per
outrun stuff like I mean, are we sure like Garrett Wilson is
better than Drake London? I I don't.
Know, yeah, I looked into this. I don't have it right now, but
if you look at the targets for out run yards for out run over
their careers, it's like very, very close.
I actually kind of forget who comes out on top.
If you like a win for Wilson, to me, I know it's been bad for
London, I know it's. Come on, it's been so bad for
both though, no? No one gets it.
No one's had it worse. Than that dude Arthur no, he's
part of that's been Ritter, Marcus, Mariota have been.
Absolutely egregious for sure. London gets to play in a Dome
though, which is the Garrett. Wilson at least got a couple of
Joe Flacco games in there. Yeah, two years ago.
I was doing career. I'm talking career.
Stats career, OK. I'm talking career stats, my
like vibes based take that I actually don't.
I said I want Garrett Wilson. I actually have 0% of them.
I don't advise like anybody all this take at all.
What? Dude, I don't want to root for
Aaron. I don't want to root for Aaron
Rodgers this year at all. Like, I, I hate that guy so much
that I, I just think that Garrett Wilson is like an
equivalent pick to Drake London and the guys around there.
I know people disagree on that, but again, this is not, this is
not financial advice. I don't want to root for Aaron
Rodgers. Just I'm just not.
It's it's so true. I would be, I would be punching
air if The Jets won 12 games like I would.
It would really bum me out if they did.
Well, week weekly winners take so November 10th is they play
the Cardinals. I wouldn't I I don't think he's
gonna be a good mood. For that game don't stack up
week. Ten yeah, Week 11 versus the
Colts definitely wouldn't stack that up.
Week 12 I so that's a week off to protest, so I think.
We'll see that refresh. Week week 13, Seattle I think is
when. We wait is the is the
inauguration during week 17 actually?
The inauguration is the day after the Miami game to close
out the season, so that should be interesting.
We'll see. We'll see where his head's at
there, but that's what KT really.
Care about? Well, you know, we heard he was
considering AVP run. What if he gets a cabinet
position? What if he gets a cabinet
position in the Trump administration?
Do you think he's sticking around for football for that?
Bro? I don't know.
I don't know how you turn that down.
I mean, the the point is there's clearly weirdo risk with Rogers.
Thanks. So much yeah, there's weirdo
risk for sure. Yeah, you can't possibly put any
of the stuff that's been going on with him.
The last, well, it's a well timed by.
Weekend like like also like like he dictated personnel to the
point where like sabotaged the team last year when he got hurt
in terms of like Tim Boyle being there, Allen was there who's
like an absolute nightmare. Like there's a like, it's not
just like. His his list of guys was like,
yeah, his list of guys was Alan Lazard, Randall Cobb, Dalvin
Cook, Mercedes, Mercedes Lewis. Look, I mean look how that
worked out for briefs last year when you when your list of guys
are dust, just a big bag of dust that's.
No other. For the young stars, yeah, that
just means huge target shares and workloads for the young
stars. Like, I actually, I know it
creates weirdo risk for Rogers, but if he's like, he's going to
not have any choice but to throw to Garrett Wilson.
Like the Allen Lazard signing is good for Garrett Wilson's target
ship. That's a good.
That's a really good point. There's literally no one on the
roster who can take targets away from from these.
I guess Jason Brownlee. Jason Brownlee could take away
Malcolm. No, they're actually saying
they're hyping up Xavier. Gibson Gibson's getting.
Rid of Corley right now, that's like the coaches are saying
that, but that's not going to last.
I mean Gibson. Yeah, he's a kick returner kind.
Of guy but if we look at like upside in terms of past attempts
I think they. Could throw They could throw 150
more passes than The Jets. That's true.
The pace stuff with Rogers too. He.
Loves to play slow. I guess I just, he plays slow,
he throws the ball away. Their defense is very good.
Like I, I, I just think, I think London and Wilson are probably
pretty close in terms of talent and the tiebreakers actually go
London's way and that Wilson's way.
Yeah, yeah, they do. They all go his way.
I I would probably push back a little bit on London being as
good 'cause he's not nearly as good after the catch, but
Wilson's much better after the catch.
But. But but like we don't I mean,
they went similarly in the NFL draft.
They have, you know, I know in like J JS year 2 profiles, like
they were both really, really, really good, you know, 'cause he
makes the adjustments for like the team level stuff on Atlanta
and like. I don't know.
I, I think, I don't think we really can have like a lot of
confidence that one guy's better than the other.
I I. Think an open score, he's a bit
better, but I I might be wrong about that even.
It's just a good Leone. It's just a good measured take.
Yeah, Wilson was wide receiver 5, wide receiver tight end 5 and
open score and London is wide was wide receiver 7.
Wide tight ends are in here too, but 74th.
That's one of the the thing with like Wilson gets open, that dude
gets fucking open and and the quarterback play has been so,
so, so bad that if to me, if one of these dudes, unlike UN hiding
beneath the surface here is an actual superstar, it's Wilson
and that, and to me the route running stuff would be would
kind of help point to that. Yeah, Yeah, I think you're
right. We have time here to hit on two
more guys or. I'm gonna have to, I like have
to literally leave the house in 6 minutes so.
OK, well, Leona, hidden Davis, you if you have time, I am very
curious on these last two players.
We can do 10 or 50 more minutes and then call it Pat.
Feel free to to leave whenever. DeAndre Swift, he's a guy that
is really confounding to me. He's 20 spots higher on ETR
ranks versus ADP. You guys have him at rank 70
versus ADP of 89. For me, like the narrative has
almost like completely flipped on Swift for last year.
It was like, oh, the NFL like hates DeAndre Swift.
He was traded away for nothing. But all the efficiency metrics
on him are are really good. Like I really like him.
And this year, it's like all the efficiency metrics on him sucked
last year, but the NFL really likes him.
Like, he got paid 25,000,000 in free agency.
So he's the guy where I'm like, what?
What is DeAndre Swift at this point in his career?
I'm really confused and don't know what to make of it.
Leonie, help us here. What do we do with DeAndre
Swift? Yeah.
I mean, I just think they've brought him in.
They give him a really good deal for a running back, especially
given like what you said, and I think it's pretty clear he's
going to step in, be the lead. They've already talked.
I mean, you always hear talk about like throwing to the
running backs and stuff, but they've already talked about
like utilizing him in the passing game, which is what you
want to hear if you're pro DeAndre Swift because that's
what he's good at. And their team we're in general
just higher on the Bears offense than I think a lot of the
market, like their average total is pretty high.
Caleb's a really, really good prospect.
They've invested on the offensive side of the ball.
They have three really strong wide receivers and I just think
like if you think he's close to the lead back here, he's got a
lot of athletic big play upside, even if he's not the best at
hitting holes and success rate and whatnot.
You can see like even though stats last year as bad as he
was, even like the breakaway percentage was a little bit
better. Granted, some of that is skewed
because he played with Philly and like anyone's gonna have a
decent breakaway percentage, but I do think we think of him as
like a bigger play guy, and I think that's accurate, yeah.
I would be curious to hear you guys talk about Khalil Herbert
cause I've been kind of I was high on him as like someone that
my skepticism on if they stick with Swift.
And then I was also nervous about him.
Maybe not even like being the RV two if Roshan passes him.
So but I do, I do got a jump. I want to say it looks like
later today we'll see. But it looks like later today
we're going to launch this this sidekick dynamic rankings tool
that we've been teasing for about a week.
So look for that later today or hopefully not, but maybe
tomorrow morning we'll have a I'll have a post out on it.
We'll have got a YouTube video out on it on the like up
channel. So yeah, hope you guys enjoy
getting a chance to test that out.
Every Legendary Upside subscribers going to be able to
test it out for five days as part of a stress test that we're
we're dropping hopefully today. Awesome.
Sounds cool, Pat. Thanks for joining us.
We'll we'll see you next week talk.
To you later. See Pat.
Yeah. So on.
Yeah, go ahead, Davis. I guess I I question one, I
would ask where you have him positionally ranked.
Like do you have him in line with AVP positionally because I
find I mean. I'm pretty sure we're we're
definitely ahead positionally. So I find it him interesting
because I expect his targets to actually probably go up from
where they were at last year because Jalen Hurts is a running
quarterback and just doesn't throw the ball the running back
much. But his touchdown expectation
should go relatively decently up.
But I, I'm, I'm just concerned he might not be good.
I I I truly. Yeah, he might not be good.
That's the but like can he be bad and like explosive at the
same time, right like. That's kind of what he's done
his whole career, right? Is he like, he's like the
opposite of like Rashad White where I think Rashad White might
not be as bad as people think, but he's like clearly not
explosive like no matter how you dice it.
I think Swift might be like the opposite of Rashad White where
like he's he's bad, but he's he's explosive.
So I'll take the explosiveness. 7070% of his 70% of his plays
are bad but 30% are good and the 30% get him to like a very
respectable total. Yeah, go, go, go full Kenneth
Walker on this thing. I I actually could buy that.
But like we have him, for example, with 43% of the
carries, we have Roshan and Herbert combined for like 39% of
the carries. I don't think that's a crazy
aggressive split. And yeah.
That seems almost like conservative.
And in this offense like that's like we're kind of spitting out
like that gives him, you know, we have him with only 52 target.
Like I think there's like a lot of room beyond what our base
projection is for him. So I feel pretty good about our
stance on him. Again, I think a lot of it just
goes back that we're higher on Chicago than the market.
We're definitely lower on Roshan of the three backs.
We're pretty high on Cleo Herbert.
That one maybe we're just wrong on, but I think Herbert's
favored ahead of Roshan. There might even be some trade
equity for Herbert going to, you know, a more advantageous spot.
I think he ends up getting dinged pretty pretty hard if
Roshan really has a hold on the third down passing down stuff.
Like if if Roshan is really the long down distance guy kind of
in a Samaj P Ryan style way, I think that's pretty bad for him
in like a way that really changes his range of outcomes.
Yeah, I just wish, man, I just wish Swift like just played
better last year 'cause I, I know like, like.
That's why that's the only reason why we get him at the tag
that we get him. At Yeah, he would have been a
2-3 turn pick if he played well and got.
This contract, which like I didn't, I didn't pull it up
here, but like you look at Miles Sanders 2022 sets versus Swift
and I get the Eagles offense overall was better, but like
this offense was making every running back look hyper
efficient and swift just like could not get it done last year.
So I don't know, man, that's that's where I'm worried because
I, I end up with them a lot because again, I I like Chicago,
I take a doonsay a bunch and I'm like, OK, let's bet on Chicago's
offense. I'll I'll tack swift on.
I'm just, there's a part of me that's really worried.
I'm just like making the Miles Sanders mistake of last year.
We're just like following the contract for a player that I'm
not sure I really believe in. I think Swift has a bit more
juice than Miles Sanders did and is.
Also I agree with. That.
Then I do, too. But like, he was still so much
worse than Sanders was in 2022, which is scary.
Yeah. No, but I.
I do agree with that. I do agree.
This is a a spot where my new found inability to diversify my
teams is, is showing up because like, I, I think I
philosophically agree sort of with Leonie's side, but his AVP
is before Jalen Warren. So I just seem like a blind.
I'm just. Clicking on Warren.
Yeah. I mean, I like Jalen Warren, but
I don't love Jalen. Warren no, it's a bit like
Warren's kind of the slappy pick of of the year right now, but he
also also I'm taking quarterbacks a lot there as
well. You know, like, like you're,
you're kind of you're in that range of the draft where you're
like, OK, I'm going to sometimes.
Really. Well, Kyler's right there.
Burrow is right there. Also, I take Romandre over him.
So like a lot of the times you're getting.
That's bad. You think I'm a patriot, Slappy?
Yeah, it probably is. Bad.
I'm just, I'm just, I give you a heart attack.
No, I would think Swift over Romandre, but I don't think it's
like bad. Romandre Romandre has the same
third down risk I think that Swift does, but on probably the
worst offense in in the NFL. Yeah, I'll say it was swift.
Like I do end up with weird spots and drafts where like I
have him as like the best guy on the board, but it's like there's
always like, I feel like there's always like 5 running backs.
Like four of them have like slightly better ADPS.
And then I. Try and push him around and then
he just never makes it back the next round.
So he get he gets in like this weird flux depending on like
where you pick where I don't know, there's obviously a ton of
randomness. This the ADP works out for a
reason. Like it's average ADP, but
there's some guys where I feel like I'm constantly getting past
ADP and other guys were like, it's just not happening.
But I, I don't know. I like, I like Swift a lot.
I feel pretty good about this one overall.
Let's end the show here talking about Gabe Davis again, a guy
there's zero fantasy podcasts that want to talk about Gabe
Davis right now kind of feels like we've reached the point
where like he just is who he is, and maybe that's why it's a
boring conversation. I pulled up his career stats and
they're kind of interesting to look at here.
His yards for outrun of 1.51. That's that's pretty solid for
wide receiver. It's not great, but again you
see this, it's also. Pretty solid for a guy who runs
every route. There's no there's no cheating
there. This dude plays like 95% of the
snaps. Yeah, and where it shows up,
like why people I guess hate on Gabe Davis is he does not earn
targets at all, 15% targets for outrun.
Like that's that's not a number that would even really get you
excited at tight end, nevermind wide receiver.
But again, you got to understand his role really high A dot big
playability, like consistent ability, at least with Josh
Allen to generate spike weeks and show up in your basketball
lineup. So yeah, he's been a tough click
for me, Leonie at pick 133 because I, I do think you're
still getting like quote UN quote breakout candidates at
wide receiver available there with your Jalen Polk's, your
Xavier Leggettes, your Josh Downs, your, you know, Dante and
Wicks before he rose a ton. So it's a tough click, but I, I
think I get the logic for being so high on him projection wise.
Curious what you'd add on the Gabe Davis conversation.
Why are you guys so much higher than ADP on Gabe?
Davis yeah, I think Jacksonville in general is really
underpriced. I mean, we're way ahead of ADP
on Trevor Lawrence, I think, I think he ran so incredibly bad
last year. I think Calvin Ridley was not
that good and had so many opportunities and still like put
up 1000 yard season with, you know, 7 touchdowns or whatever
it was. So we're higher, we're hiring
Kirk, we're hiring Brian Thomas, we're hiring Gabe Davis.
I just think in general, this is a team that's going to play at
an above average pace. They're going to have an above
average pass rate. They have an above average
quarterback. Like you put all those things
together and they can probably support a lot of pass catchers
and Davis's big playability is really what shines through.
Like we don't have him getting a ton of volume.
You know, we have him, our base projections, 84 targets on the
season. It's not a huge volume thing.
We don't have him with huge volume upside, but we think he'd
like can maintain that high TD rate going from Buffalo to
Jacksonville. You just you just need the T DS
to come like in the right time, like for him to be like a super
advanced right player. Like if he gets he has one of
his classic two touchdown games. And like, you know, Christian
Kirk in his career has spent a lot of time not on the field in
two wide receiver sets, whereas Gabe Davis is like a lock to be
in the field. And and those like there,
there's maybe like a a smidgen, a smidgen of target upside with
him. I think.
I mean, I'm not making him a core part of my strategy or
anything, but I agree with this ranking.
The bear case on Gabe would be like you guys have noted, all
his stats have come with him running 90% plus the routes.
Like if he did end up not running 90% plus the routes,
like it's like oh man like. Yeah, then you're in jail.
And you're scared a little bit, but I think like the markets
more than taking that into account as far as like how I'm
like drafting him. Obviously like any Lawrence
stuff, it's pretty easy to double tap those guys.
I mean, it's almost a backdoor stack, like where you can get
them in rounds, like, I don't know, 11-12 or something.
I will draft a decent amount of teams where I'm getting like
wide receiver times three out of the gate or something.
But then like I really detour a lot.
And then if that's the case, I need receivers like Gabe Davis
around where he goes and I'm very happy to take him.
If I'm drafting a heavier wide receiver team, like more of A0RB
or Hero RB team, I'm probably taking running backs in this
range. And then to Sam's point, like
after where Gabe goes, you can still get like some of the
rookie wide receivers that you need for breakout.
And usually at that point you more care about upside because
you've drafted like so many for sure, like projectable volume
receivers already in the first, you know, 7 rounds or whatever.
It just fits so well with the I've got 2 running backs, 4 wide
receivers on the team. I take Evan Ingram because I
need a tight end and I don't love any of the options on the
board. Then I take another wide
receiver. Then I take another running back
and I'm on the clock in round ten.
I take Trevor Lawrence, I need another wide receiver.
I take Gabe Davis and I feel really good like it just it's
it's so follows sequentially. Yeah, and I buy like I think the
other bare argument on Davis you could make would be that his his
spike week stats are basically just Josh Allen stats.
Like a lot of the the Gabe Davis stuff is Josh Allen going hero
mode, broken play finding Davis deep down field for a touchdown.
I'm I'm a big Trevor Lawrence believer.
So I still think he has a quarterback that can connect
with him in a similar way that Allen did.
Obviously, you know, maybe Trevor Lawrence isn't Josh
Allen, but I still think Trevor Lawrence's skill set is pretty
well suited to how Gabe Davis wins.
So yeah, I, I think it's, I, I think the, you know, being that
far above Davis by your ranking makes sense.
And certainly in Trevor Lawrence stacks, Like he's, he's 100% a
priority for me in Trevor Lawrence stacks.
Yeah, yeah, I agree. All right, let's end here
talking about our favorite closing line values versus ADP.
Does anyone have one handy and want to get us started?
Yeah, Jalen McMillan. Oh, I love that one.
Wow, Mcmillionaire. Let's go, Leone.
That's that's probably my highest exposure wide receiver
in the end rounds right now. He's mine too.
I I think I tweeted out that like a doonsay was my highest.
Exposure. Player yesterday, but it's
actually McMillan at 3034% right now.
I had 65% of McMillan in the big board.
I mean, I think there's a lot of outs for him and like the the
there's the generic rookie like, you know, why aren't we just
taking more shots on these rookies?
Like every year we kind of have every other year we have a a
late round one break out. I think the offense is gonna the
plus pass volume because they can't run the ball and I don't
think they're good enough to like be playing from ahead a
ton. And he's got different ways of
getting on. I think he could be good as a
third wide receiver and the offense is really good.
But then he's also got contingent value on two guys.
So I don't know it it seems like they can they feel like they can
play him anywhere. Yeah.
Yeah, go ahead, Davis. I mean, I just, I think that
there's also like Godwin, just like weirdness stuff.
Yeah, I was gonna say like both, and this isn't closing line
value argument, but like, undeniably both Godwin and Evans
have like age Cliff risk, right? Like it's not gonna this I like
I like Evans this year. I'm not saying he's a bad pick,
but the show's not gonna go on forever and you have to assign
some probability to either one of them just falling off a
Cliff, right? So yeah, that's why I think
Mcmillan's such a great last round pick.
I probably should have done this one last week 'cause he's
already up a little bit. But Blake Coram, I mean, you've
got one. You've got to, oh, actually,
turns out Kyron's foot is going to be a problem and he's not
going to be ready for training camp like we thought he was
going to be. That's big.
But then also, I mean, Shawn and Vey will not shut up about this
guy. Like there's just no reason for
him to be going on a media tour about his third round pick.
But like each of the last two Rams press conferences I've
seen, he's been like, you know, like Quorum, He's he's learning
all the past protections. He's a da da da da da da XY and
Z. And I mean, look, we just need
big ETR to move him up a little bit and get and get this theme
move. And I, I think, I think it's
very, I think that I think it's very real.
Honestly, one of the best ways to do this exercise would just
be sorting by ETR ranks verse ADP and.
The the ETR change log would whoever whoever got bumped up
the highest last week that. 'D be pretty effective.
The beginning of the best ball season, I felt like our ranks
weren't like moving stuff that much.
But the last two times I've run the data for Adam does the
market Monday. So I run the data for like the
ADP movers and it's been it's been our guys on like both sides
of it. The people are people are
getting a lot smarter and like the injured dudes for a while
there someone was taking Chubber Hawkinson like way too early in
every draft. And those those days seem to be.
Seem to be over. Those are over all right, I'll
go with here. This is definitely a a risky
one, but trying to win this game.
I'm going to take a stab on Kamani Vidal.
We got the news this week that Gus Edwards got banged up.
There's not really any details about that unless I miss
something. I do think like once we have
confirmation that Kamani Vidal is not going to be an absolute
zero like he's he's in the running back rotation ahead of
JK Dobbins. Maybe this injury for Gus
Edwards lingers into the preseason and Vidal get some
snaps with the first team. I think that's gonna send him
way up boards. You know, ultimately I do think
there's a cap on his ADP with that six round draft capital,
but I still think there's a chance we're getting a pretty
good deal on him now at at pick 160 and I could see him.
Like why is there no news? Why why is there no news?
I I don't know that this guy exists from reading charger
stuff. Yeah, like there was like.
I've not heard a word. He is the, he's been the one
rookie running back I've been more apt to.
I mean, I'm taking shots on like different ones in different
spots, but I do get worried about some of these guys just
not actually playing. But Badal's one, I've been
taking the risk and he's already come up a lot though.
I mean, he's the running back 50.
And I don't have confirmation that Jim Harbaugh knows he
exists. You know, like I like like I
seriously seriously like it. Nothing, No, no, no highlights,
nothing from the beat. It's been like, oh, Vidal took
like nothing. And I don't I mean, like that in
and of itself doesn't matter that much because these guys
are, you know, like the what's the Chargers beat writer know
about the running back to battle?
Like, he probably doesn't care that much.
But if it's August and we still don't have like real clear,
Kamani Vidal and and what if Dobbins makes the team?
I mean, what if JK Dobbins makes the team?
That's a real crazy scenario. Yeah, I will have to start
drafting at that point, but I'm still betting on the guy who
didn't tear his Achilles last year.
That's just. No, I mean that.
That strategy has almost never failed.
What if Vidal, if, if I told you guys right now Vidal leads the
Chargers and carries, Where does he go?
Is he like running back 23 or something?
Probably. I'd say around, yeah, if he
leads the team in care, if we knew he leads.
If we knew he led the team in care just.
Like let's say let's do not he'd be going like that way to do
this exercise, bad way to do this.
Like RV 20. RV 19.
Dobbins. Dobbins gets cut, they say.
They say Dobbins, take your $50,000 and walk buddy.
We don't even need you to come to camp.
And Gus Edwards is on the pup. Where does Vidal go?
Pick 80. Yeah, no.
Right over. Yeah, higher, you think?
I think so. The thing about that is like the
ARB. If that's the only information,
we I'm just like, I'm trying to play it as like.
Yeah, that's the, that's the only information.
We have like prove the doll information.
We just. Have just.
Just just those guys are are out of the way.
Oh, you mean higher like a higher number ADP?
A higher number, a higher. Number.
I mean maybe more like like. Yeah, under underdog speak.
Yeah, Like, I don't know, probably he still goes after
like Trey Benson, don't you think?
I mean. Yeah, I think after, I think
after Benson kind of in the, he probably goes right next to
Chase Brown. Probably, probably right where
it's like, it's like Slappy from this guy. 20 so let's call it
like 1:10-ish. Yeah, I think that seems.
Right. That's probably more accurate.
Yeah. All right.
That'll do it for today. Leone, what do you have going on
ETR and I think we talked about a little bit, but for or maybe
5% of listeners that don't know what is ETR have going on for
the best ball package this this offseason?
Yeah, we've got rankings for like all the different
basketball tournaments and formats.
I've been doing some content there.
I did an article on the Best Ball Mania finals from last year
simulating those, kind of teasing out a lot of data from
those simulations and hoping by the end of the month to I've
only got like two weeks now, but to start leaking like some
updates to the Best Ball manifesto that I wrote last
year. Awesome.
Beautiful. Sounds good.
We will see you guys next week. Peace.