Hello everybody and welcome to ATP chasing.
We have a lot to discuss today. Dalvin cook finally was released
Madison. Tie Chandler Dwayne The Bride or
shooting up draft boards and the elite quarterbacks continue to
slide. We'll break it all down here.
On ATP chasing. Let's go.
Pat fryer, homo Anita hand job. Fix your side with your bar.
There's that. Yeah.
So I've been waiting for for months and months guys we kept
hearing Dalvin, cook is going to be released.
I took maybe a little bit longer than we thought but finally got
that close to June first news on them.
So yeah, he's out curious curious what you think Pat, how
you been treating? The Madison and Vikings running
backs with cook. Now gone.
Yeah, I misread the situation in terms of what the market would
think. To me, I mean, Madison's like
kind of a very capable number two and I fell back but not all
that good. He wasn't a particularly strong
Prospect, he's slow. He's been solid third-round
draft Capital. So it wasn't like, you know,
they three guy necessarily but it's been pretty solid when
given a shot. He can do everything is
versatile but he's kind of like a poor man's Josh Jacobs type of
dude or kind of a David Montgomery type of guy.
Like he's not someone I ever be excited to draft.
I know this is like a pretty solid offense, probably maybe a
borderline playoff team again, you know, and they'll definitely
run the ball. Still, I read an article.
I think on the athletic where they're talking about how
they're still going to run the ball, like this is not a team,
the philosophy shift but I mean the fact that he's kind of
jumped up. Very quickly.
It does. I mean I just I just misread
that I thought like this was kind of priced in like I thought
people realize cook was gone because it was seems so obvious
that he was going to be gone. But no, there was an additional
bump here, so I should have taken more Madison prior to the
obvious, cook release. I don't think that I will take
him again. If he goes kind of in the
background five range, I just think he's like a quintessential
DeadZone back at that price and I think, you know, the reason
that I don't like to take these backs in, you know, one of the
reasons is that they're susceptible to losing work as
the season goes on. So if I'm going to be taking
Madison, like I would be more inclined to do it in a format
that doesn't have a three-week Sprint.
So I think in particular in best Ball Mania.
He just strikes me as pretty unappealing.
So he's going, right? Let's get some contacts.
He's going right now at pics. 65, that's ahead of guys like
Swift as former teammate, Dalvin cook can Is Pacheco and just
behind guys like Damien peers, smile Sanders JK Dobbin.
So that's a ranking justify that but it does seem like he's
moving up. I saw some stuff that would you
know, right after that he people saw him unlike the three four
turn type of area. I don't think I'll settle there,
but there was like a lot of optimism about how she should be
like ahead of Miles Sanders in that crew and if he does settle
there, that's why I'm saying, I probably won't have any mmm
Davis. What are your thoughts?
What are your predictions for? Where he ultimately Ends up and
will you be drafting at all? I've not taken him since the
news. I was taking him before because
I just thought it was so perfectly.
Telegraph what was going to happen.
But I mean exactly what we said was going to happen, which is
what every TR is ranking is right about where he's going to
get. Drafted ET are ranked him
running back 16. He's going right about running
back 16. Since the Dalvin Cook news, I
prefer every dude who goes ahead of him except for my Sanders, I
like Pierce more. I like Dobbins a lot more.
I like Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon a lot more.
My prediction, the day. It happened was that he would
end up going where Kenneth Walker's going, we'll see, you
know, it will really depend on, oh, you know, Ty Chandler.
They really Otay Chandler's doing everything.
The coaches asked, he's playing on third Downs there, wait,
until we get the first, they're actually going to use Thai
Chandler, and Alexander Madison together on the field.
Wait, till wait until we get that one then.
Then we'll see what happens but I think Pat I mean you forgot
the first rule of fantasy football which is that the
community will like a guy until he burns them.
Alexander Madison has never had a start in which he was bad out.
There's ever been a time where you pick Madison up off the
waiver wire where you held them all year and you started them
and and you got screwed right now.
I believe I want to say maybe there was one start that he got
hurt himself in but And large, I think his fantasy points per
game in starts is like 19 and a half or something.
Yeah. Like have to be our Davis, I
have it pulled up its eighteen and a half and half the yard.
I think it's that one like one dud, start and there but then a
couple of huge smash start. So like that.
I think you. I mean, like we should at least
presentable case for I think I agree with you guys.
But like, let me let me do double.
He just gets Dalvin Cooks workload.
He's Miss price by two rounds. Yeah, exactly.
And I do think that I largely agree with like the the dead
center arguments, he's not a guy that we love.
Is talent, but I mean his back. It's not like we can get overly
excited about these backups so I don't know.
I think like, I would probably fairly priced them at like, pick
six. Yeah, I think I'd have him just
ahead of Sanders and just behind like Dobbins Aaron Jones mixed
in. Well, like, I do still world
were like, oh, we get so worried about, you know, Ty Chandler,
under sized committee, College back, who got zero offensive
snaps last year until week 18, you know, Duane McBride.
Who has the lowest yards per outrun them Running back, like
ever in college, like, it's not like these backups are
tremendously interesting. So I do see a world where he
holds onto the job, the whole year and is like a slight win at
his, at his price. But yeah, I mean, I like, I
mean, we pretty much any running back in the league, you know?
I don't know, there's probably 50 running.
Let's there's like, probably 50 running backs in the NFL where
if you were to give them an 80% snap.
Sure. They would be a smash And he's
in that group. If he has an 80% snap, sure all
year your, he's going to be the guy but like, hmm.
I guess the fact that he's been a Smash in games work, Dalvin,
cook hasn't played, you know, that's that's great.
But it we talked about the one of the reasons that I like going
200 running back or just kind of targeting these like antifragile
type of running back guys. Is that a lot of times the
backup will consolidate Work. When the starter goes down ahead
of them or, you know, you have like, like I imagine like A.J
Dylan. If, if Aaron Jones order Miss
time each of them would get like a lot of work.
But in a season where they didn't have Aaron Jones would,
we expect AJ Dillon to get a ton of worker, we expect them to,
you know, figure out what the rotation is going to look like
Beyond just the main guy. So sometimes in season the
running back, the capable or be two steps up.
He handles everything, it's awesome but that's not
necessarily generalizable to an entire season, you know, when
they go into the season knowing that the are batu's now the rb1
so yeah, the bull case to me is he just gets 80% of snaps and he
just like kind of has the season Josh Jacobs had last year.
Yeah, I mean, it's a good season, right?
I mean, it's a good Susan Viking.
Good sale items off the Vikings offense is pretty good.
The question really is, does one of McBride and wamuu or tie
Chandler? Make a serious case to be
either? And it can go either way, right?
So, in wamuu and Chandler would sort of be like, they would take
the third down work. And if that happened, that would
not be good. The other thing that would not
be good, would be if the Wayne McBride becomes Jamaal Williams.
He's right and both of those things would would make Madison
more of a trap back. But I mean, you know, to be fair
to the market, you compare the guys who are going after him
Swift to me has like sub 10 percent chance of getting an rb1
workload. Maybe that might even be too.
I Dalvin cook, I think completely Left 4 Dead Acres.
I mean you know who knows what's going to go on with the Rams,
right? I feel and their offense might
be way worse. I Auto drafted Acres with your
Star Trek. I just, and I let it, I let it
take down, I like forgot, I've been drafting like, computer, I
don't use it because it screws up my queue, and I've got like,
her, the spike, we cool. So then I'll my phone, I
switched over and I was I had Jerry Judy at a nice value in
the fourth round and I was just like doing something else like
letting it take down, take down to zero and fourth round cam
Akers popped up. You got it, you got it.
If you're gonna do, if you're going to do the star, all of the
correlating players trick, you got to really be on your game.
You cannot it cannot be like Like I've learned that the hard
way, you know, like doing one draft that, I'm making dinner
walking the dogs, whatever. That's the GTO time to do the
star. Everyone is when your
multi-tabling when you're doing like 45 and you're doing cardio
or just sitting on the couch or whatever.
Because yeah you'll get, I mean and I've had some terrible ones.
You know that there are Derek Carr in the second round after
you take devant it. Like I've had some really really
bad ones so it's definitely a little bit about One lat add one
last year where I was doing like the walking my dog and I went
through like a dead spot in cells ourselves up in Maine and
like sometimes where I'm living like the sell services trash.
I had I think Justin Jefferson the first.
So start all the Vikings ended up getting like Adam thielen
Auto draft in the third and I could like the worst part two
is, I could see it coming. Like it wasn't that I had looked
away from my phone, like the countdown.
It's that you literally cannot put.
Yes. Yeah.
And I was trying to click it and I just I couldn't do anything
about it and just got out of jail, on the third.
So just a disaster. It's gotta be careful with that
strategy but but you know, you'll get people, you'll get
people on Twitter who will be like.
I can't believe you do this. Like, you're like, you're you
wasted. It's like I'm pretty shy, my
guess is, you're gaining much more EV by just.
Yes. Actually if you're multi-tabling
by knowing exactly who you need to click like, if you're, if
you're multi-tabling and you're not doing this, you're just
going to draft uncorrelated teams, your brain, your brain,
don't have enough, your brain is the star 100%.
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah my feeling on the whole that whole tear the like I kind
of like Dobbins Diamond. Someone I don't think I've
drafted him a ton but I'm he's one of the guys as I'm like
reviewing what I've done. I'm like should probably take
more Dobbins. I think there are scenarios
where that offense is awesome for.
He looks way better after, you know, the second year after the
the multi ligament tear, there's like upside scenarios.
I Can See For Dobbins, I think like at his height Dobbins was
super talented. So, you know, I kind of get on
board with that, but I just am not taking a lot of these
running but I mean, this is the dead zone to me, you know the
the Sanders, the the Aaron Jones, I mean this, they're
priced a little bit later, little bit lower than they have
historically been three years ago, these guys would have
probably been like fourth round picks or whatever.
But this is still a range where there's a lot of opportunity
cost. You know, delete tight ends are
often available in the sixth round.
Now I'm sixth round. Kittel has somehow become a
Thing. It's crazy.
So I actually found it. Six.
Round Kyle pits. Yeah I see seventh round
calpads. Now sometimes goddard's
regularly in the seventh I think there's six in the seventh round
are still coming with a lot of opportunity cost and so I just
don't have a lot of interest in taking any of these six round
running backs like Mi Sanders. I have very little of yeah.
So it's more of an overall type of thing for me rather than
quibbling about we should be before or after Sanders, like,
I'm not drafting standard I don't really care, you know.
Yeah, that's fair. The one guy and drafting a
little bit of recently in this range.
Well, two guys, I am drafting Kenneth Walker.
I think like he's not really the typical Dead Zone profile
because I mean, there's a success rate stuff.
We want to do that whole conversation, but I think his
talent is also great. Success rakers, doesn't
understand Kenneth Walker's. Jean.
Yeah. They'd on her side and kind of
locker going burn for some, you don't sounds.
He does just, he does something really well.
Like he is, Uh, yeah, Fred will break away Runner.
You know, I think I did both Seattle running backs.
I think, I think both, I think both.
Yeah, nice. Yeah.
I mean, I've taken them both on the same team, I don't care, but
I think there are direct that against each other.
I think they are, they are. But imagine, if you had taken
Walker and Penny on a bunch of teams together, washer, you got,
you got like five baller-ass weeks and then you got Kenneth
Walker, closing, these different prices, though.
They were both in that. Yeah, single digit wrong.
Yeah, I've done both when they both, I've done both like wants
it. Because they both slept past,
like, around pass ATP. And I was like, at this point.
Sure, I think there's a world where this works out.
But anyways, back to what I was saying, like, I think for me, I
will have absolutely zero Madison once he gets above
Dobbins, mix in Walker because I think, you know, you can just
MIT, I'm not drafting like a ton of those other guys, but I will
never draft Madison over those guys to think the talent is just
a lot better, like the offense of ceiling for Cincinnati
Baltimore. More Seattle.
I think is a lot better than it is for Minnesota.
So like I can kind of see like yeah, above Sanders Sanders
talents, probably better. Minnesota's offensive situation
is probably better like I can I can maybe see why if you were
forced to draft a running back there which you never are.
But if you're forced to, I can see going.
Who are you? Never are.
Yeah, like the bills were all have Madison and it won't be a
lot is probably if I go lots of water, severs, lots of
quarterbacks lots of tie downs, early and then Madison slips,
like Six pass ATP. And then at that point, I think
he can pay off if he's your first running back.
I think I think his points will be more valuable there.
So that's what it is for me. If like I was in a draft where I
had a lot of water severs the you know I didn't have a chance
to get an elite quarterback so I feel really good at wide
receiver kid'll and Pitt's go and like I don't have any Eagles
and I'm like I don't feel like they can got her here in
Madison's like, you know, it's the end of the sixth round in
Madison sitting there. I'd be like, okay yeah price
I'll take him. That's, that's what it would be.
That's like, sort of what Sanders is to me.
So where's David is also sometimes take Dobbins in that
like 5th 6th turn area and feel. Okay.
Yeah, I take goblins, I think goblins a lot with Lamar because
Lamar is if you, if you if you miss out on Mark Andrews he's
kind of hard to correlate and both Bateman and say I've it's
hard to get both of them. Yeah.
Just the way you can get one of them pretty easily you get one
of them every time. Right?
But I mean if you're taking a third-round quarterback, you'd
like I have like three or four of his teammates, ideally things
and I mean, I will be chasing the ghost of Mark Ingram's. 2019
season for the rest of my life, you know, because that should
have been just isil that, that Mark, Ingram season should have
been just isil and I'll never ever forget it.
I take some Gus Edwards to. Yes.
Edwards. Gus Edwards is like if that dude
stays healthy for 17 games, you're getting 150 PPR points or
half PBR points. It sounds pretty thank you.
The only thing you're dodging was that words is like the I
guess he's not fully healthy right now and I think you're
dodging them like sighing. Yeah, these vets at this point
but I've sold it taking, I've been taking him.
Let's let's put the fall or the excuse me, the risers on the
chart here. So these are the largest risers
of the past week. Before we completely move on
from the Madison conversation, tie Chandler is on this chart
rows 16 spots in a teepee Davis. I'm curious if you are taking
bets on the Minnesota running back to who is your favorite out
of Chandler? I'm trying to take Chandler.
Trying to take Chandler every single time because I think he
and Wanda or like the same skill set.
But Chandler I think is like, the more effective.
I mean, if you just look at their college stats like and
Wang, that was like a scatback punt, returner kick returner,
just like insane athlete in college.
And, you know, kind of kind of in like a Jerick McKinnon style
way, just taught himself how to play running back.
Where's Tyler? Ty Chandler's, just a running
back you know? I mean I don't know if he's like
a great one but he's really Pretty athletic 438 at 205
pounds and the thing is McBride I think is going to run into the
you know, the Ronald Jones problem where unless he unless
he figures out how to play special teams.
If you're not the third down, specialist your and you're just
kind of like a running back, he's going to be he's going to
be the healthy scratch, right? Unless one of the other running
backs ahead of him gets her, whereas I think Chandler just
should be active on game days. The second.
Background. I mean that that's the way I
would project it right now. And I think the market has not
adjusted enough for some of this stuff yet.
Like Dalvin cook is going to be a Miami Dolphin, but three
Dolphins running backs all go ahead of time Chandler.
And and like one of these Dolphins Max is either going to
get caught or is like not going to play at all, and it's not
kind of stuff. Drafted, I'm not really draft in
the morning. I was taking a bunch of them
early saying like, well, you know, this Dalvin cook thing is
kept going on. So maybe there's Thing to mine
there. I mean, the other thing is, is
cook might just be absolutely like unplayable, like he might
just be done. So maybe it doesn't matter to
the Dolphins teams. We've already drafted but
long-winded way of saying. I'm pretty much taking tide
Chandler as my fifth or sixth running back like every team.
I'm drafting right now assuming someone else didn't take him you
know someone else didn't get jumped him in the sixteenth
round or whatever. Yeah.
Pat what are your thoughts? Because I think I'm a little
more into McBride but curious what you think on the Vikings
running back to the situation. I mean, if I was like a Vikings
coach, I'd be way more intrigued by McBride, you know, he's sort
of a to down compliment in Madison the strength of what he
brings is really versatility. And so I think that McBride
would be like a pretty interesting kind of Khalil
Herbert type of guy like a little bit of an explosive
rushing element that you Dad but we're not in charge of the
Vikings and I think what probably will happen.
Is exactly what Davis lined out. They laid out which is, you
know, it's not just that McBride.
I don't think he's going to play a lot of special teams.
It's that like, Kenny. And wamuu was like, drafted to
play special teams to play special teams.
It's what he does is, why he's on the roster.
So like he's gonna be active. So, now comes down to Chandler
versus McBride and one of them is going to be an active and
McBride missed the, the OT, a period with.
I forget exactly why. But he didn't, he wasn't around.
And so he's also day three rookies.
Like what a sixth round pick. The odds are that he will not
really see the field much this year.
So yeah, I think Chandler's probably I think I should be
drafting more Chandler. I've been mixing him in at the
end of drafts. But I like Davis's approach
better. Yeah.
So I guess my push back there is that I got that McBride is a
late. What seventh-round pick as a
rookie. But Chandler was also a day
three pick last year who saw Zero offensive snaps until week
18. Like I don't think we have any
evidence that that's very that's very Very Vikings though, right?
That's that's that's what they do, like Mike bun, great
example. This like Mike Boone was pretty
listen, different staff and staff institutional memory of
bro. It's like and I'm really ways.
I think my point is like I'm not saying I'm confident, it's
McBride. But like I said, the reason I'm
probably not taking a ton of Chandler, especially this price.
Rises up is, I think the snare you outlined for McBride being
the healthy. Scratch could easily be
Chandler. Like, I don't know.
I don't think we have any evidence that the Vikings
Chandler. Like they took him what around
earlier. But, I mean, zero offensive
snaps until week 18 last year, like I don't know.
Like, I don't think we have much signal about how.
Yeah, you can read it. The player can read it.
You can read it, whatever way you want.
You can do flips, or whatever, for whatever it's worth in the
games that tie Chandler was active.
For last year, he was a core for special teamer, so he was active
in week four. He played 19 special team snaps,
he was active in week five, he played nine special teams, And
he's acting, weak 18 and played 11, special team snaps, which
means he was on punt, kick kickoff coverage, which is, I
know it's really boring shit. But, like, this, this reading
the tea leaves on special teams with second and third running
backs is like an actual and actual skill, right?
You know, it's what, it's what I mean, it costs me money last
year because I refuse to read the tea leaves.
But it's what led people to Pacheco early on was was being
like, well, he's going to be active for kick return.
Ins. And so it's like Ronald Jones.
What do you do here? Yeah, yeah, I think I mean,
yeah, that's it. That's a big thing that
Chandler's got multiple outs being active, although, I guess
you could say, since in Wong was going to be the kick returner,
maybe they're just so maybe, maybe we're actually reading it
and reverse because because your third running back is locked in
to being your special teamer. So maybe you just take the best
running back. For running, certainly good and,
and, and maybe that'll be McBride.
I mean McBride has run certainly as a rusher profiles way, way
more Charter. McBride's profile is a rusher is
the best thing. Any of these guys do, if it
translates, I mean, he did it at UAB so who knows?
But if he's that guy, he's elusive, his elusive writing was
off the charts in college, he's like a fairly big, not huge,
but, you know, he's can be a guy that makes a guy miss or Her
powers through a guy and he's got some juice as a rusher as
well. He kind of reminds me like a
Damien Pierce type, like he accelerates quickly.
He has no or Gus Edwards. He he's got no final gear but he
can be someone who like explodes through the line and, you know,
yeah. Except what's block plus five
type of guy pretty regularly. So, you know, maybe that but he
needs. He now needs because the other
thing is he's missed that period where he had a chance to impress
guys, and shorts. He doesn't.
And he's had You know, he had an injury in the pre-draft period,
which is one of the reasons that he fell, you know, if he, if he
had a chance to work out and impress guys, press Scouts,
maybe he's a day to pick this given how productive he was a
rusher, but he's kind of behind the eight ball here.
I will say that, you know, you could read the quotes that the
Vikings are given about Chandler either way, they've been asked
about him and, you know, if he's gonna have a bigger role and
they're basically like, he's going to have to So you can sell
like see there. They're planning on using them
or they're like fuck I read it. I read it the same way Israel.
A band of Canada is getting talked about which is like yeah
he's going to have to play because we literally hate
Michael car turns on of at night like this like they are so bad
that we're just going to have to use this fifth round rookie
while we're waiting for briefs to get back.
Like I don't think it's that they're super enamored with a
banach and it's just that they hate the other guys they have on
their roster, right? So, McBride has maybe an opening
that if he impressive, but he but you know, what?
What do you put the odds on that?
Like, How likely is either? I'm pretty entry.
I'm pretty into it. I think that like, the, the drum
Ford free Square used to be able to take him and the 18 rounds
means completely. It's completely gone.
So like I've you like look at some of these other running
backs. We're going late like guys who
are unsigned, guys, who are real cut threats, Zach Evans, you
know, might not even might not even I make the team Joshua
Kelly, you know, dudes Vaughn, look, we love do spawn here on
this program, but he's probably on the outside looking in, for a
roster spot with Dallas like, Chandler.
My kind of, like, kind of think it's between Malik Davison,
Ronald Jones, and then Vaughn will do his phone if they sign
Zeke this all changes. But yeah, sure.
Yeah. Because I think the other thing
too, to call out of it, all these situations right is that
we still have like what? Three to four Veteran running
backs that I think are gonna work.
Way into running back to rolls on some team right for net.
Oh yeah, the oven cook Zeke creamed honey.
Maybe you can cream haunt you could say, or maybe looking more
at our be three roles on teams, but I don't think an rb2 tear.
I think this one name-brand alone, someone's going to assume
you'll be there or be too. Exactly.
So like, that's the thing with Minnesota, you know, they they
cut Dalvin cook and save 10 million.
I think they could justify, you know, fournette.
I don't think he's like, looking for money, right?
He's talked about like going. To a team that has a chance to
win the Vikings made the playoffs last year, right?
Maybe he strikes out on the Chiefs and other places where he
really wants to go and takes two million from the Vikings, right?
I don't know, I'm not, I'm not ruling out of Veteran running
back Landing, beautiful letters for net.
If Leonard fournette signs with the Vikings, he is going to get,
I'm gonna drop the shit out of him.
I didn't have answers, get out of them.
He's one of my highest on guys. Like he's free.
You can get them in that. Yeah. 18 ground.
Sometimes I do. I do like fournette.
Much more than hot and Zeke. Yeah, because he's as cheap as
hunt, but I think he's got more left in terms of like, like for.
That's never really had that much but he's right, but he
still has that right? Like, he's still big, he can
run, but he can get going like, OK.
And then he's hard to bring down once he's getting going.
Cuz he's fucking huge and teams, trust him in pass, blocking, and
pass, catching and also trust him at the goal line, right?
So like he can, he's a guy with the running back, one goes down.
Down. He can find himself in a really
high value. Touch roll, I think.
Yeah, yeah. That's, that's another reason I
like him. Yeah, go on.
Work and dump offices, like, his whole game.
Yeah, yeah, he's a big, one of the biggest compilers.
All right, let's move on from the Viking situation.
Let's talk about the Cardinals again.
This week, we have both Rondell more and Marquis Brown
continuing to move up on the d-hop news.
Rondell is a guy that I personally have come around on
more, I want to pull out this. Stat from this is from Hayden
Winks on Twitter, that Rondell more played, 77% of the wad of
to wide receiver set, actually cast lire, more than, actually,
more than that, because he got hurt.
And one of those games, it's even higher.
He had multiple games, have 100% snap share.
And yeah, so it's like, I, in my head, I was, like, Rhonda more
56, he doesn't play into wide receiver sets.
That's actually not true last year.
Now, it's worth noting obviously that in those games, either
Marquis or Dion. Dre Hopkins was out.
So if both those guys have been healthy, certainly he was not
going to play into our receiver sets in those games but just how
the cards fell last year. That's there's no Hopkins is
going exactly. So I guess the question I'll
give this to you. Pat like do you think that
Rondell more playing into water silver sets is like their plan
this year? It was that just sort of a
desperation play last year when they didn't have that a lot
better alternatives. well, I've also think, you know, What is
this offense going to look like in terms of Base Personnel?
Because you know, one thing you can say for Cliff, I don't want
to say too much for him but your they used a lot of three wide
receiver sets. Mmm.
You know, they used a ton of three wide receiver sets.
So Ron Elmore wasn't like always out there, you know, on the
outside. Even if he's playing, you know,
we're running a hundred percent of routes.
Yes, he could still be in the slot for a lot of those Snaps.
Are they going to use quite as much?
That base three wide receiver set under this you know new
coaching staff. I would guess they use that a
fair amount but that's certainly like a reason to may be worried
a little bit. Especially if down the stretch
they get anything out of Michael Wilson.
Is their third round pick. I don't think he's all that much
of a threat but he is kind of a bigger.
He's sort of an Alec Pierce type like if you just want a guy on
the outside is going to run straight down the field and draw
the defense. You would put out a start.
Well, you put out a or Michael Wilson out there as opposed to
Rondell more. And so, you know, if you just
think about like who is Rondell more really, he strikes me as
like the kite, the type of guy who might run between 80 and 85
percent route rate as a really good slot receiver like if you
had really good I've got your Rondell that's got here on Dale
comp. He's just.
Kobe Myers and this offense, right.
Mmm. I don't that seems like almost
overly optimistic to me. I'm, well, your, I hear drafting
him as he's gone up, 50 spots in a teepee.
You're probably feeling optimistic, right?
Well, sure. But yeah, I think he's more
like, he's like, he's like a toddler Boyd with more
explosiveness? Yeah, I mean, that, that would
be, that would be. The thing would be that this
sort of real run after the catch.
Insane ability that we've always thought he had actually shows
himself in 2021 in week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings,
always remember, because I just was so enthusiastic about
Rondell more as a rookie. He scored a was like a 65-yard
touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings like whipping and
weaving in around the defense, the whole way.
Eight targets, seven receptions, 114 yards, and one touchdown.
And that is the last time around no more ever had a 100-yard
game. I-i'm in seeing a little I'm
seeming a little facetious but I do actually think Greg torches
still the guy I'm taking here. He's free.
What's the, what's the thesis of the play with George?
I don't really get it. It's Dortch.
Is the thesis of like It's really the same as sort of like
the to to thesis or the my point a lot of high point and catches
know like that like the you know, it's like the Paris
Campbell. It's just like he gets in there
because he just runs really reliable routes.
You never drops the ball. He just he's just going to be.
He's going to be great or she's gonna be he's gonna do what he
did when he played last year. I don't think he's got in the
ceiling. Like I think great.
George has zero one thousand yard seasons and his range of
outcomes doesn't have any double digit touchdown.
See, Within his range of outcomes.
But I also the Dortch thing plays on.
It's a total train wreck season for Arizona.
They're playing Clayton. Tune in week, 17 Kyler never
comes back. It's just, they're just trying,
they're just, they go and 17 and, and, you know, Hollywood
chips and nail. And they're like, all right Bud.
Let's put you on, let's put you on IR.
It's that thesis, but wasn't he? Mostly filling in for Rondell
mores and that how he I believe. I believe, I believe he filled
in for both Rondell and Hollywood.
When they got banged up last year, I believe that is the
case. You have to tell me if I'm
wrong. Yeah, I think you're right.
So in week 7 he ran 816 routes and then 18 rounds in week, 8
and Rondell had 30 routes and fifty two rounds.
Also played. He also filled in a little bit
for Hopkins. I mean, he played 91% of the
snaps and week one right before before anyone was injured, well
Rondell didn't play week, one Rhonda.
Only play weeks 4 through 11. So George was torture is
relevant in the first three weeks and then his routes took a
big hit. What was his?
What was he was filling in for Arundel.
Mostly what was his targets for Route run last year?
I'd be I'd be curious to know that.
Yeah, it's I've worked Targets on.
It's got to be kind of decent I would think just because he runs
it was really easy. Routes 18 and a half not great,
it's fine. That's the thing with to talk
about Rondell again, like the, I know the targets for Route runs
stuff, like loves Rondell, but I don't think people account for
how much of those are schemed, like, slugs in the same way.
Yards per it loves canaries. Tony, it's yeah, it's so he was
running a lot. Like, I'll give him a little bit
more credit than Tony because at least he was running all the
routes, but I mean, you look at his stat lines last year and he
had a lot of high Target games, but his a tots going to be
really low. I don't know.
I like it. You look at some of the wide
receiver wide receiver charting stuff over the last two years.
Rondell more. In terms of open score is like,
95th out of 128, qualifying wide receiver.
So again, that's not like the end-all-be-all stat, but I'm
pretty skeptical. He's a, he's a guy that's going
to go out and beat man coverage down the field.
Like I just don't at this point. I think we would have seen a
little bit more of that. By now that said like bring it
all around wide receiver, 136 for a guy that I think projects
Supply into wide receiver. Assets is not a terrible price.
Like I'm not quite 36. Sorry.
Sorry, ATP of 136 is, what happened?
Sorry wide receiver 62. Oh yeah, he's a like, I'm
probably taking him ahead of like Romeo Dobbs.
Is there, I'm fine taking him out of Dubs.
I'll take him ahead of feeling and take him out of probably.
Darnell Mooney will take you ahead of you.
Can imagine drafting it. Lets the other is your little
shorter. I think you do, too.
You play Pickleball and I literally, I vote another thing.
Imagine, there are two guys who go Smith Schuster and and
thielen. I just don't know who's
clicking. Yeah, he's taking them.
Like, why is DeVante Parker got like a 0% draft but you just
missed you, sir is wide receiver for?
Yes, Juju. Okay.
Juju is not that. It's not that bad.
I don't take a lot of him, it's not that bad, but it's not that
bad. We've talked.
Okay, we've talked about, let's not get sidetracked into you.
You too much. We talked about how one of the
biggest edges this year. Is just the fact that New
England did not have an offensive coordinator last year
this year. They do, he's being drafted.
Why don't think that's a reason to draft a guy who couldn't do
shit with Pat? Yeah, that's exactly put up.
Okay. Couldn't do shit.
He drew a hundred targets and had I not receiving yards, like
it's if it's a little overhead stayed on the Chiefs.
I don't know that. I would like him at this price.
No, no, I would obviously. Yeah, I would Well it's so gross
but like I heard you got hurt. He was not good.
He was not good with Patrick Holmes knows.
He's I think I think the more I think the more bearish JuJu
thing is that these are his postseason.
These are his postseason numbers to targets to receptions against
Jacksonville. One target, one reception
against the Cincinnati Bengals, nine targets seven, receptions
53 yards in the Super Bowl. That's super bear.
Irish, that's an evil. I heard a good Superbowl
performance right there against. Yeah,
I don't think any of these other risers.
I don't think any of these are interesting.
Well, well, let's Touch on Thornton because I think like to
your point of Interest, this is all Slappy driven.
This is all. It's all Slappy driven.
Its, this is baked in, this is literally just like Pete
streams. Making up a bigger percentage of
the overall. Yes, and this is this is this is
pure sloppy. That's all I just want to.
I want to mention Thornton because we legendary upside, we
had a bump DeVante Parker up the ranks just because we're like I
guess he is a human being who plays football we should have
him. He's saying is he had a bomb up
the ranks who's we? Well, the I'll way, but so it's
like there's anything. The Royal we talking about a
solo project. I do that all the time.
Like yeah, we really appreciate it, right.
Totally. I do I do have a little bit of
help with the ranks behind the scenes, but but the, the
Patriots thing, I mean, if you just say Juju stinks, I don't
feel like drafting the most expensive guy on the, on the
Patriots who also is a pure slot receiver, I can get there to
starting out. Wide receivers, and they're
starting tight end for free. Later.
Why would you do that? It seems like a better way to
play it. Yeah, no, I agree.
It's a better way to. Okay, I'm not saying overweight
Juju, I'm going to be underway Juju, but I don't think it's
just like I think the the hate on Juju is a little overblown.
I think he could basically do what Yoko be like, he's gonna be
in the same role as Jacoby Myers last year.
Jacoby Myers also guy not awesome at beating man.
Kind of a slot wide receiver. I think Myers is is better than
Juju but I think that could be outweighed by the fact that the
Patriots offense as a whole is going to be way more confident
than it was last year. So like just put him in the
Myers roll the offense gets a little bit better.
He does like a little bit worse in terms of like share than
Myers did and I water ski 450. Like I don't think it's I don't
think it's like awful but I'm not taking think one thing you I
will say for Myers. I don't know if he gets like
full credit for the fact that like last year he played 30
percent of So why'd he was at 33% was a career low as well.
Said 34 percent the year before 35% career percentage it out
wide and JuJu's been like mean as time has gone on he's just
become more and more of like a pure slot guy so I don't know.
You actually did play a lot of snaps out wide with the Chiefs,
but he sucked. So might be back to the Steelers
usage. Like, if this is kind of nuanced
point but like if Jacoby was Jean.
The Patriots. I would be more excited about
him than I am Juju. But the fact that Juju like okay
you can say that these other Patriots water severs are
discounted or whatever but like man look at taekwon Thornton's
like targets for outrun guards around last year like that was
garbage. Like look at anybody else, it
was Garb like I think Juju does have a meaningful chance of just
like scooping up all the volume in this offense in a way that
Jacoby Myers on the Raiders with Davante.
Adams does not write. So, That's what I'm kind of bad
Patriots. Do seem underpriced.
Because one way this could play out as that Ramon, Dre, just
gets you kind of don't, that's the best way to play be like in
a cooler type of, dude. Yeah, okay.
Anyways, not enough Juju talk the other other Trend.
I wanted to call out here is mix in is rising and he hasn't had
any. Like I don't think he's been
featured on this chart heavily, but he's just that it illegally
fired higher. This also felt inevitable to me
like because sort of it sort of like a Lindy effect thing where
every single day that he's not cut or jailed or traded it's
just more likely. He's going to be the Bangles
running back. Quan, right?
So, what even is, I actually like did 20 minutes of Googling
on mix and trying to find, like any recent news or whatever like
have you guys heard any like updates because there's like
nothing at like I'm kind of pricing in like a very low
suspension risk at this point. I don't know if that's smart or
not. But like, at this point, I'm
kind of treating it. Like, I don't know, 10 percent
chance of being suspended or cut.
I don't know. It's pretty uncertain but
there's not a lot of recent positive out This blowing up for
him, I don't know. Could be like seem like a little
plug risk. Yeah, I think almost I think
almost no cut risk. I mean the Bangles are trying to
win a Super Bowl. Are there going into the season
with Chris Evans treyvion Williams?
And who's the other guy that people like, Curt Chase?
Chase Brown, it's brown? Yeah.
Now the Bangles Bangles are trying to win a Super Bowl.
They're not, they're not cutting mix in right now.
The, yeah, I think that the concern is that he gets
suspended and I don't know, that's been hard for me to price
the odds of that because Nothing has really changed in a positive
way since this incident surfaced like he I thought like, I
drafted a ton of them in the late stage of the big board,
which I feel good about now because he was, he's moved up
significantly in price since then.
But I felt kind of sick to my stomach for a minute.
After I realized that what I thought then was that this
charge had gone away because they like Miss filed it and it
was, it was pulled but the charge has not gone away.
They Old, it was some sort of clerical, whatever.
The police officer not the follow the procedure correctly
or something so they like pulled it and then we filed it now.
It's been very quiet since then but he does still face this
charge and that could lead to a suspension.
And I don't know, it's sort of like in the absence of not
really hearing about it. We're just and by the way,
wrong, right? We shouldn't get more, we should
be exactly. Same confident, we were a month
ago. so, an interesting thing as it pertains to that, this is my
if I can be, Bryan Winters, here, if I could point for a
second teams and the league when it comes to running backs, They
throw the hammer down on the suspension because it doesn't
matter, right? Like they're they're like cream
hunt you there's a video of you shoving, a woman in a hallway,
cut, cut in the middle of a thousand-yard 15 touchdown
season. Alvin Kamara, like I mean, come
on, might end up suspended for the year, you know, and and who
knows how that goes. I just that's my that is my
wintour's pointing me is that when it is a running back, who
is in trouble when it is a running back, who has this legal
thing, I feel like The book can be throwed.
Whereas if this was if this was Jamar Chase dealing with this, I
mean the Bangles would be. They like they would Johnnie
Cochran would be his lawyer, right?
I mean, there would be there would be a full-on like legal
assault, to keep Jamar Chase from missing a down of football.
So that is when I and I obviously I'm not saying that
this is morally justifiable. It's fucking gross.
But that is that that's definitely something to keep in
mind. Yeah, I completely agree.
And by the way, I'm not touching Camaro right now.
Zero percent for me. Yeah, he could be For the whole
season. For sure, I think that's in
play. I mean, I don't think that's the
most likely outcome, but I would say, six games is the most
likely outcome. I put anything lower than that
is very unlikely and then all your uncertainty risk is sort of
and he might be a might be cooked anyway.
Kumar might just come on, Mikey cook tomorrow.
Might be dust anyway like taysom Hill.
Those last two seasons being like a Workhorse of Russia and
it seems to have not worked out particularly well for his legs.
Although that feels, that feels more like a tactical error than
anything that would have been his fault.
So it's a Tactical error because like one, it wasn't all that
effective because that's not really what he does into it.
I think it may have burned him out.
Also these are camara's snaps down the stretch which are these
percentages aren't bad for like a normal running back but in the
context of what Camaros competition was last year.
They're pretty bad week. Thirteen fifty nine percent of
snaps week, 15 62% of snaps week sixteen, seventy percent than
week 17 back down to 58 percent. He was losing those snaps to
David Johnson and Mark Ingram like that.
I don't know that. I think I'm gonna ask you not
hurt, right. Am I misremembering?
Didn't didn't he get hurt? I don't know what.
Because was the Chimera he missed a couple games.
Like he got he got injured in the middle of this season.
Uh I'm not seeing he missed week two and week 4.
But then anyways like you look at his snap shares like in the
middle ear then towards the end it did seem like the saints were
like reducing his workload which was weird because we're
basically your speed, he probably was just like
exhausted. Like I mean we've Tony Pollard
is ripping off like 37-yard gains and then tapping out for
Malik Davis because the Cowboys running back coach wanted him to
do that. Like that they just I don't
know, I guess less one is like if you, you know, if you went on
Camaro and he doesn't get suspended, you're probably just
getting a committee back on the Saints whose what?
29 years old now and has been worn down the past.
Couple years lace who plays the Buccaneers and week 17, though
who has taysom Hill stealing all of his touchdowns the goal line.
I mean, I'm all I know all I know is I just got a vision of
Justin Herzig being the only one in the final with Alvin Kamara
again. Again, I don't know man, like
I'm not taking him but if I know he got a three-game suspension
I'm gonna be like I'm so stupid. I just spent I just spent an
offseason taking AJ Dillon and Antonio Gibson and Alvin I could
have had 30% album, Kamara for 13 games, like I'm a moron.
Yeah, I kind of get it but I just, I don't know.
It's been two years of Camaro. Like kinda being bad.
Yeah. And I just think the odds of him
getting a three-game suspension or very low like he punched a
dude. Yeah.
Video of it.
We have a video after where he talks about making a good
connection. That doesn't mean like I don't
think the legally that makes all that much of a difference but
like Goodell is going to have seen that like it's not good.
Yeah. Back to make some quickly what's
like okay, say we get I think like pricing in the his odds of
suspension is like incredibly ambiguous and tough to do.
Maybe a little bit easier is like, figuring out what the win
is if we get the news that he's not going to be suspended like
what is his ADP? If we get the news tomorrow that
you know, these charges were made up all my blog.
Addison Madison range, no higher, I thought You just said,
come talking mixing, Nicole? That was me.
My fault mix and goes back to
where he was being dropped. Last year, 2, 3, 2, 3 turn.
I don't think he'd be that high. I would say, three, four turn
like a head of nausea, but behind briefs.
Yeah, I think I think the decision is him or etn.
Yeah, those are simple like that's a similar thing where
you're like, I'm not sure the like I want to bet on the
offense I'm not sure that he's going to have every touch.
He certainly could get every touch if they committed to them
but I'm not sure if they're going to commit to him writes
like a very similar decision with he Tian.
I think I'd if I knew that he didn't have any suspension risk,
I think I would be taking him over etn.
I would not be taking over Breeze from Andre Josh Jacobs.
Yeah. Derrick Henry like That would be
very difficult for me to do. I think so.
It's a weird thing because I actually could, you could talk
me into, like, maybe taking him over Jacobs hasn't signed yet or
Henry, who's 29. But those guys go earlier, free
syndrome, Andre or the to our. Yeah, big big Henry, big hands
big Henry. We're letting we're letting the
people know that he plays these Texans and week 15 the week 17.
Yeah, okay, so I guess it is like a win with Nixon but it's
not like this massive, it's no longer this massive ATP, when
right? Like you're getting maybe a
round and a half. Discount, which is certainly big
like round 32 round 5. Like I'm not saying that's
nothing, but it's not like when I was getting a bit like 70 or
80. It was like whoa I mean in this
steel the pick. Now I'm kind of like this is
probably about right given the ambiguous risk.
Yeah and what I do what I do like about take I took them on a
team the other day and I'm going to be underweight mixing almost
certainly. But you know I've mixed them in
and I had that period where I was hammering him at least but
You still can build around him, like he's a kind of a hero
running back type, A guy like in a way where I don't really feel
comfortable doing that was like Aaron Jones or you know, Madison
or mile Sanders or whatever like or Dobbins.
You know, any of those guys I don't want to build like this is
my week in week out, starter running back but I think it with
mixing because there is still a suspension risk, you can do
that. You know, I probably build
around them pretty similarly to like a Ramon Dre or or a Jacobs
or a breeze. Even though I like those guys
better braces, maybe not not a good example since he might not
start the season but yeah. Like a reminder your Jacobs like
I probably build a similar team and you get a Decent discount to
make that build like the to V2, you're getting on.
One of those guys is pretty nice.
Like Amari Cooper instead of Chris Godwin or something like
yeah, t by 2. So, yeah, it's a decent.
It still presents an opportunity.
Yeah, exactly, yeah, it does. Okay, let's move on to the
fallers. Here.
So now, looking at the largest followers from the past week,
June 5th of June 12th, a lot of repeat followers on this list
and the first was obvious thing that's going to stand out to
everyone. We have all our four of the top
five. Quarterbacks are on this list.
Justin Fields is down. Jalen Hertz is downpatrick,
Mahomes is down, Josh Allen is down.
So I think the question is now like maybe let's focus on like
Mahomes Allen and hurts and put Fields aside like are these guys
like on track? After ball in the second round
now because you RI put it, we're getting them the third round or
when I push it every time and if it means that I don't get them
like that's fine. What ends up happening is I have
a lot of weird teams where it's like, okay, I take Kelsey, I
take Devon to Smith or whoever just the second round, pick
doesn't matter then the quarterback I need Allen Kurtz
homes. They go.
And then I take Lamar a lot of the time so I have these weird
teams where it's like, elite elite four At the elite, wide
receiver Elite side and Elite running back then you know,
naked Lamar backdoor it with Bateman or whomever where which
is like. I mean obviously I would like it
better to have it with the quarterback that I prefer but I
also sort of like that idea of like that's a weird combo.
Most people are probably not doing Kelsey.
Say Quan Berkeley you miss on Mahomes you try it you try and
you try and press it, you miss on the homes.
But instead you just take Lamar like that's a that gives you
like a weird sort of Leverage in like what if Kelsey has 21
points, which is what, you know, probably Far and Away the most
points that someone scores and week 17 at tight end, but
Mahomes just has like, 20 for, you know, just a 303, like a
normal good game, you know, they're probably lots of paths
to non-muslims team's winning. Yeah, I think the fall does feel
like something where the rest of the quarterback prices really do
matter. To try to figure out how to
attack it. We're like on DraftKings.
I'm still a little bit more willing to take the second round
quarterback because I'm feel, you know, I'm going to get I
mean you're still getting that third round running back that it
also feels like an unusual price.
I really like Mark Andrews in the third round.
So like I kind of still if you even if I take a second round
quarterback on DraftKings I still end up liking my first
three picks and feeling like these are you know three guys
that are going to be like no one else is going to have these
three guys plus like a really good second rounder you know and
quarterback on drafting is trickier.
You know sometimes you'll just there's more Auto drafters.
You'll see I take quarterbacks at ADP or ahead of ATP on
DraftKings because I just I I hate the idea of dropping on her
and 50 teams there but going into the season with like sick,
dude, you have a bunch of Daniel Jones and Derek Carr past acts.
Like it's just I just hate that idea.
So you gotta it's but it makes up for you.
You get made up for that on DraftKings by bunch of the skill
position players. Exactly.
And you can get jsn later, you can get Johnson like all the
anyways, cheaper there. Yeah, yeah.
So you just you pay your little premium on DraftKings to like
make sure that you have All portfolio teams you're going to
like so you pay that premium a little bit of quarterback and
then you get to bask in the glory of all this value that
sweeps over you at wide receiver and running back and stuff.
So that's if I'm going to still drop the second round of
quarterbacks right now. It's really primarily on
DraftKings. I think the fact that Fields is
falling like I sometimes. See, I wrote an article as
saying it's really nice right now, how you can do, the you can
do the DJ more at the end of the fourth and then try to get
fields to come back in the fifth.
If you know and then if you don't get that, maybe you can
get Cristian Kirk in the early 5th and do the same thing again,
with Trevor Lawrence in the sixth round.
But I've seen, like, I took DJ more in the fifth round on
Underdog and Fields was also there like something like,
people just passed on that whole thing entirely with Fields
falling into the fifth. Sometimes it does make.
It's like, dude, if I think it fits around Fields, like I
might, am I taking second round, Josh Allen or second round jail
and hurts it just way less appealing and Richardson is also
falling. I see him in the ninth round a
decent amount now. It's like, I don't know, I mean
I want to get the upside of quarterback but pay as little as
possible and you're getting the upside cheaper across the board.
So, it was just this pocket falling.
I might be like, inclined to hammer them at the cheapest
price we've gotten so far but because everybody seems to be
following. I'm kind of pushing pushing it
further and seeing if I can get like me.
Mid third, which I usually don't, but I'm but I'm trying.
So I've been getting the past couple days.
I've been getting a lot of like, pick 30, Josh Allen pick 30,
Jalen hurts, even on teams where I don't have the pass catchers
on those teams. I'm totally fine, grabbing the
naked Allen, and her sister, because it's just like micro
take for me, where I thought that in the late s, it's really
tough to click hurts, or Allen over briefs over, am Andre over
Derrick Henry. If you like the wide receivers
you can throw them in there as well.
Then once those guys are gone and you're staring at pick 30 of
like naked, Jalen hurts first Calvin Ridley, like that's a
hammer hurts for me. And I'm not even like, maybe I'm
different from most people here but I'm even fine.
If I don't get Goddard like, I'll certainly Beach like a half
round to get caught her and would like to get him there.
If I have a naked hurts but like, man, I think make it hurts
that. Pick the move, the move with
make it hurts is 2 Giga stack. Another game, you know Broncos.
Charges call, Traders whatever. And then you have Jalen Hurd
score, three rushing touchdowns and week 17 and AJ Brown divide.
This myth, Goddard, none of those dudes get fed at all.
And you have the 34 ball from jail and hurts but the Jalen
Hurd Stacks that get there to the final are carrying, you
know, first round AJ, Brown 11 points or whatever.
That's, that's the move. If you get the hurts past ADP
team I think Seattle's a nice because you can go get lock it
and You can't really get lock it in Jason.
All that reliably but you can identical and like 30% of the
time it. Yeah.
Do it. Yeah.
And the Josh Allen naked is even is even better because there's
so many like the wide receiver three there, the the markets
kind of throwing up their hands and saying we don't know if it's
going to be Hardy or Shakir, you know Kincaid, I don't love his
price but in a stack it's like a pretty cheap piece to get on
fine with Kincaid. If you have it stacked with Alan
like you can find guys pretty cheap and buffalo.
Now Which I think shows up like we've showed this chart a bunch,
but this like Mega stack chart for Buffalo.
Like they're not even in the top 10 or maybe like there, right at
10. In terms of most expensive
offenses, like the market is not really pricing up these Buffalo
second, they're trying to the Kincaid, Slappy's are really
trying. They're trying to but will do
pretty cheap but shakir's Falling.
I see secure just sitting there past ATP.
A lot of times you can you might get Shakira and Hearty round 18
pretty reliably. That's what I've been doing and
how Doing both secure and Hardy 1718 rival and I say fuck it.
Like one of these guys is going to probably be a bus but like
maybe even not like Alan or sorry Gabe Davis or digs gets
hurt. And suddenly both those guys are
relevant, right? So one DraftKings, I've done
that without Alan. I've taken Shakir and Hardy
because I'm like, last year we had, you know, oh, I Jameson
Crowder's the guy, you know, he's going to he's going like,
what in the 12th or 13th round and then Mackenzie was free and
then it flipped and then Mackenzie was like in the 12th
round and Crowder was free but like this year both guys are
free. Those are the wide receiver
three and four on the bills, right?
Like I'm not I'm not missing anybody so I guess the guy I'm
missing right? Is Dalton Kincaid but I, so I
get to bet against the rookie tight end with two wide
receivers, one of whom is really really fast.
What are the slop? He's going to.
He's going to tap out on Kincaid.
I don't know that they are ya like I mean, I was the Slappy
last year with Alberto right eye and I wasn't letting it go and
then eventually I did. I stop taking him.
He, I think the lowest he got was like Titan 15, but then
there was the false false flag where Alberto ended up getting
more expensive, right? At the end again after after
they said dosage was going to be on the IR.
He ended up. Alright last like two weeks he
ended up getting expensive again unbelievable.
Yeah it's the Kincaid stuff so I don't love this price in a
vacuum. The reason like I'm maybe not it
as down on him as you guys and I would take him like an allen
Stacks pretty. Pretty happily is that like the
bills over the past couple years, have just thrown so many
times and ran so many plays that I think a 55, 60 percent route
participation tight end on the bills is equivalent to like a
90% participation tied down on the Panthers, right?
Like it's not sure that once once you do the math, there like
it's probably not as bad as it looks.
And like, I think, Is upside just because I am not a Gabe.
Davis Talent believer. Like, put me on the record and
for that and like, besides digs, like I kind of see the upside
but yeah, I'm not taking him on stacked like I'm easily just
taking a running back there. I take I take Kincaid with Josh
Alan, I'm man enough. I'm man enough to admit it.
If I have a Josh Allen team I'll take him.
I don't really take him. I'm sure I have it but I just I
don't really I don't look to do it, really.
I'm just like to me. Knox is the starting tight in
there. You can get him really late.
Eight. And I would, I would just love
the, you know, winning a million dollars with Joshua Allen belt
and Kincaid and then the haters just pull bunch of clips of me
saying called Kincaid is the worst ATP and fantasy football,
history. I would be needed.
Then he just send the screenshot of a million dollars.
Yeah, I've been hearing this to you like Buffalo Hunter Renfro,
DeAndre Hopkins, they just signed, and this is where my
lack of defensive knowledge hurts me but they'd assign
someone to a big deal on Fence that I'm blanking on that one.
Their cap space is like they surely extended out at Oliver
and Oliver right. Thanks.
So they can restructure and I'm sure they could fit in like a
Renfro or Hopkins with those got like renfro's contracts
expensive. Hopkins is asking for a lot of
money like it's no longer trivial for them to add those
guys. So I do get, you can lose on the
Hardy and Shakira bats by them, making a trade for a veteran.
Sure, but I would not say that's the most likely outcome at this
point. I do think some run 40 because
there's lots of rumors that he's going to get traded.
This is like a hilarious. This is like I don't know if
this is information or not probably not but the Raiders Pro
Shop was offering a discount on Hunter renfroe jerseys.
This is like the Dalvin cook removed from there.
Was there was a report there was a report last week from the
athletic that there's been no chatter.
There's been no movement on a Renfro trade, the no movement,
but I don't think there's not the Raiders seemed open to it.
There hasn't been any movement, you know, on a trade.
I mean it doesn't seem like a really bad schematic fit.
Having Renfro Jacoby Myers and Michael Mayer all running routes
together and and Davante Adams, who historically the turnaround
side of the slot. Yeah, yeah.
Off the scale. Yeah, they build the whole
offense out of the trips Bunch. Right?
So it's just it's just Adams is in the front.
Myers is right there, a right there, they're all standing in a
little triangle on the right side, Michael Mayer on the other
side, Jacobs in the backfield. That's every play.
The entire like, last 10 years of football has been like,
taking advantage of horizontal space on the field and Josh,
McDaniels is just gonna have everyone lined up right next to
each other. Like a, like a giant Bo set
Joshua, Daniel. Yeah.
And Josh, McDaniels that hires looking at hires looking really
good right now. I'm sorry, guys.
There was no evidence of that. This could happen that he would
just come in and tank a franchise.
No there, that never happened before.
And also, I mean, you look at the the Belichick coaching tree
and all those guys have been huge successes, so yeah.
Pretty good. Aren't other guys.
I want to call. I do think what's interesting
here. Moving on from the quarterbacks
is both Bijan and Taylor falling and now that's not.
This isn't huge like raw ADP Falls, they obviously show up in
this chart because when you're going at Pick 10, a one drop,
one spot dropping. ATP is, is huge on a percentage
basis but I don't get this. Why is he falling?
I think it's just wide like so you go back to the risers chart
You see, Devon te Smith and Garrett Wilson both showing up
here and if this chart extended further AJ Brown, some of these
other wide receivers are going up slightly to.
So I think it's just like the continued wide receiver thirst
is continuing to punish I fear the my theories it secular.
I think there's only so many guys in the first round and a
given draft who want to take a running back.
Yeah, and now they're taking a cooler and so then you get the,
you know, just odds are based on his draft right now.
It's like, I don't want to start my draft of the and then
actually guys are I think that actually kind of makes sense
like Eckler probably scores more fantasy points and Bijan.
So like seems fine. Maybe, yeah.
Yeah, I also say that like McCaffrey is down, he would be
like extra 14th on this chart, but he's tall.
Is down a spot. Tony Pollard is down a spot.
I don't think it's entirely explained by Eckler.
I don't see a clear on my list here, he might be up slightly,
but I would say, stop from, he's up from like three weeks ago,
right? He's kind of regained, his 108
type of Ecuador's. Only up point two spots this
week and like a ton of these early running backs are down
like a full spot so I don't, you think is another reason for this
then, right? Because the p when I'm in the
puppy I do think twice about Taking the Caffrey, whereas in
best Ball Mania? I just I take them, I don't
really like why do you think twice about taking him in the
puppy? Because I know all these sickos
are going to take all the receivers.
I'm looking at like, sometimes in the second round, I'm like,
like, I've started in the puppy McCaffrey, you know, Pollard
briefs. So, fair amount like that, the
that type of, which, hey, that I think that's a pretty good
start. But like, God immediately, the
rest of my draft is just like. All right, I'm just chasing
receiver, I'm I reach for guys that I like, because I'm like,
Like I don't I'm like less willing to trust the market when
I'm like do you know for receiver points?
Do you know why? This is a is not even a big deal
dude because then on those teams you just take an elite
quarterback. You take an allen.
You take Mahomes, you take take one of these guys.
You can AR get are more homes. I've taken three running backs
to start. Oh, I just mean when you take, I
just mean when you take CMC, okay?
And then and then you can fill out your wide receiver numbers
with guys who correlate, right? Yeah, you get my home's, you get
my homes and you take Boyd sky and rice.
So you get three correlated pieces and, and your and I think
also another thing is to consciously make those eight
wide receiver teams. Maybe, you know that due to
quarterback too tight and I really like that David that
strategic bad of like it. So in I am like generally doing
the four wide receivers through through seven or eight rule but
the the rare times where like say maybe I do fight for our
receivers to date but it's all like Rounds 538 or rounds, four,
through seven, or whatever. And those builds I'm very
consciously going, okay? I'm now going to bet on one team
where their pass catchers are all going late and I'm just
going to grab all those guys. I'm going to bet on the Panthers
and I'm going to go DJ Chark Mingo.
Stack it up with Bryce young? And then I say okay if the
Panthers are just like the 19th best offense in that NFL this
year than these water severs Are Gonna Save Me.
So I do really like like Patriot like your Texans, Giant.
Yeah, lots of ways you can do it and obviously, you would not
want to drop 150 teams that way, but I don't, I do not want to go
into the season being like, hell.
Yeah, dude, I got to Christian McCaffrey teams in baseball
Mania, you know? Because yeah, because I was too
afraid of getting buried by the Avalanche.
Yeah, no. And I'm less afraid of the
Avalanche investable Mania right now because a lot of the
Avalanche drafters are over in the puppy and I think that'll be
even more true as the puppy gets closer to fill.
Might want to get your puppy's. What are your guys thoughts on?
On this, I just take who's ever at the top of the queue in round
one. I don't I don't basically do
that too II don't do. Now last year was the exact
opposite where I took huge stands in round one, I took
McCaffrey every time he was available when I was there and I
took Kelsey, it's onto I took Kelsey ahead of ATP.
A lot this year, I just think, I think around the world.
I think the round 1 ATP is just right.
Like, I think, I think it's just, I think it's pretty
correct. Yes.
Like them. I've some very micro stands that
like, I don't even know what we're talking.
Like, I'm taking AJ Brown over digs.
Oh, I do that. I do.
That's just like age age model. Like I think there's hidden
upside. That's that's five drinks.
That's Vibe, spaced analysis and I'm on that.
But yeah, yeah, I also think so. Levi space me Agent.
Brown is an absolute Superstar. He's younger and he showed in
Ultra Elite ceiling last year. Like if you're, if you get one
of those giant, you know, AJ Brown versus the Steelers agent
Brown versus the Titans types of games and the, you don't pull a
orders either. It's important.
Do you care at all that, a.j. Browns, week 17 game?
Maybe the least competitive. Like, it might have a 14 and a
half point spread like, are you? Okay, what if Tyler's back
though? I don't know good, good.
I'm not, I'm not saying it's a reason not to take him but in
the game of like aren't you worried that we play?
Aren't you worried about Darius sleigh, aren't you?
Worried about whatever. Like it's something I've thought
about of being like, that could actually be the least
competitive week 17 game by like a lot.
Yeah, I mean, that that is not ideal that they could just be
resting, everybody. They could have shut down Kyler
but we saw I mean, the Eagles were steamrolling teams last
year and they were putting up until I'm 100% 100%.
It's not it's not the kind of thing that you can be.
Like I'm going to take a stand on what I expect the week 17
Arizona Cardinals to look like right and also like You know, if
they demolish the Cardinals, like there will be points in
that demolition in the first half.
Sure. Someone someone on the Eagles is
going off in the first half, someone someone on these are
having a great game, right? Because the Cardinals defense
stinks too, like it's not, you know, if they're resting
starters on defense like holy crap, it could be, they could, I
could only need like it, you know, 1/2 44 miles but plus it's
hard to like fully kind of jumbo stack the Eagles as well.
Mega stack them you know, you Yeah, can but it is difficult.
So you generally want to get my one or two guys plus another
thing on sorry, dinner up there but another thing I'm Jalen like
the eagles. That's super exciting.
Jalen hurd's literally had more than double, his total passing
yards. Sorry he more than doubled up
his second half passing yards in the first half of games last
year and the first half of games he had 2500 passing yards in the
second half of games. He had just 1,200.
So like if the Eagles Aren't as dominant obviously like there's
a little you know if they're not as dominant first, half those
first half stats won't look as good but like they were just
completely blowing teams out of the building and not even having
to try in the second half of games last year.
If their defense is a little bit worse, their schedules a little
bit harder, like some things break in a different way.
I think the passing numbers for the Eagles could really, really
Skyrocket in a way that the markets, not not fully baking.
And so, they were not afraid to pass.
Ass. They were not afraid to attack
deep. Like this is a team that I think
can be quite aggressive through the air even though like if you
look at their overall Rush first pass stuff because they ought,
they weren't afraid to run it down people's throats either.
But they had, they have multiple approaches, you know, they liked
and what I loved about the Eagles is they were like
predictable if they wanted to a matchup where there was no pass
rush bad secondary like, It was pretty easy bet that they were
just going to Chuck it deep. And and that works that works
super well. I mean AJ Brown was Unstoppable
deep last year so I think Yeah, they'll probably run it down
people's throats a fair amount because are going to be good,
but I agree if they need to get in a few more shootouts, like
they're not going to shy away from that.
This is not the Bears of the Falcons like they don't need to
like rush it a certain amount of times feel good about their game
plan or whatever like they'll go toe-to-toe with people.
Yeah. And again just rephrase it
slightly differently. Like Jalen hurd's would have
surpassed 5,000 yards and 15 games played.
If you just take his first half stats and apply to the second
half. Now obviously you can't quite do
that. Like But that's like the ceiling
as a passer. We're talking about if the
Eagles were forced to pass a little bit more and, and if it
was a successful as last year, so that's why I think AJ Brown
and even You could argue devaugntah Smith do.
I think have a lot of hidden upside?
Oh, yeah. I think Smith has a lot of
upside as well. Yeah, one guy.
So ftms, Doom said, an eagle, and every draft, I've got a guy
in my Discord, delicious Grizzly, who's been talking of
Kenneth gain well, and Gain well we got a little bit.
No, no I've been doing. I've been doing the mental
calculations of like, Get like so there's the tray.
Sermon smoke is starting now. Then we got that report from the
athletic Eagles guide that they might stash Penny on.
I are just to keep him on the roster but I have to cut them
and if my prior is Tracer I'm instincts, which he does.
And my prior and my prior is that you under a swift was
traded for a fourth-round pick. And Eric eager said it.
Best. It was to add to the legend of
how he Roseman, right? It's a fourth-round.
Pick doesn't really matter for the Eagles because they have so
many but he's getting great Pub because people know who DeAndre
Swift is Right? DeAndre Swift is a name, people
know him, they saw him on Hard Knocks, he was a second-round
pick, Georgia, yada yada. The under a swift is the fourth
highest paid running back on the Eagles.
Roster. I think one the idea that he's,
like, set up for this Bell cow role and to, I don't think he is
a stone block to make the 53 either.
I think he's like 79, no 85 Clinic guys.
Think he it, they think it's Swift and gain well, who are
locks Hmm. And so that's what I that's what
I read. I think I think I think the
locks are gained well in Scott. I think those I think those are.
I think those are the two locks. I see, I don't think Scott's a
lock at all. If one point nine million
dollars guaranteed, they're not cutting him.
I don't know, man. I mean they could, they could
Scott is the highest paid Eagles running back.
There's, there's a little bit of trivia here on the pro.
They really have to go probably carry for, right?
So, it's certain someone's gonna get caught for, or with a
healthy scratch, which will be Scott.
Most likely, but it could be 10 or it could be Penny starts the
season on ir and sermons, that healthy scratch and Scott's
active, but I won't be, I don't think it'll be gained, well, he
also know. Okay, recently is a receiver and
the bet is You're the guy in your Discord is Right?
Which is that the bet that people the role that people
think Swift has is actually the role that gain well has and and
gain well is actually ahead of Swift.
I would not be shocked. I would I would assume that
Swift is ahead of gain well but I would not be shocked if we
just have that wrong. He's ahead.
He's ahead of gain well until they asked him to run inside
once and he bounces it outside instead and said, and tells the
running back coach, I didn't want to get hit.
So let me like, let me pour a little cold water on gain.
Well, Mi Sanders missed three weeks last year week, eight,
week, 9 and week 10, gain Wells, snap.
Percentages in those three games 31% 19% 31% and they just moved
Boston, Scott into the lead role.
So I'm a little skeptical that gain well, has much contingent
upside outside of like a 30% receiving role in this offense,
like, I don't know. I'm just remembering last year,
I was so excited when I had them on a bunch of teams I was in on
him last year. He is not a guy wear, when the
lead back went down. He grew into a larger role and I
think in half, PPR like I'm still to like Pick one ninety or
whatever. I'm not saying gain Wells like a
bad pick now, but I don't know, man.
I'm like, what do you when you win with gain?
Well, I'm a little skeptical that they view him as a guy who
can, who can carry the load and the soft.
Well, I think one thing in analysis with us that we don't
have access to the playoff, data's is handily and he had, he
had 30 snaps 34 snaps in, 38 snaps in the three playoff
games, which I think, I don't know the totals but that, yeah,
that's what he, I believe. He led the Eagles backfield It
snaps in the Super Bowl. I believe you did as well.
He did. And it's also, yeah, it's
totally fair. That probably a reason.
Some of those Snaps are so low in the game that Sanders missed
is because they were probably just blowing out team so they
could just put in Scott for right, the carries, right?
So, but that's the thing about half this snaps, the the hurts
played 67, 68 and 70 for snaps and those three games.
So that's something like half the snaps in the playoffs.
It's just this like weird parlay though, with gain.
While we're like if they're blowing out teams, which will
probably have Happen to get bit. Like he's probably not the guy
getting the goal line touches in the, you know, carries between
the 20s, I guess, in passing scripts, he's getting the work,
but he's also competing with swift there.
So I get the bad totally at pick 180 but like, I don't have, we
seen gain well like have much of a weekly ceiling in his NFL
career so far in the playoffs. He was really good in the
playoffs in the playoffs. That's right.
That's fair. He had like a head like a
billion fantasy points against the Giants in, but no one really
liked factors that in cause we can't like, average it into
stuff and doesn't like people today about the playoffs is if
they don't count, they do count. He also, he also had layoffs
playoff, Lenny that one year that every also have multiple
doesn't count doesn't count, right?
And then the following year you took over the backfield.
It's like well he was the guy they trusted in the playoffs,
you know, maybe that matters if we should have acted that in.
Yeah, that's fair. That's fair.
He also said, he had multiple targets bike weeks, despite
being, like 30 percent Target share guy as a rookie or 30%
snap shirt guy. Yeah.
I just think I think that Swift is a horrible bet at his price.
I'd be I if Swift was 15 picks cheaper.
I could see myself snapping off a lot of him just because he
becomes an asymmetric bed at that range.
But where he's going now I'm like, dude, there's a chance,
DeAndre Swift place, like 14 snaps a game for the 2023
Philadelphia Eagles. I don't think that's likely but
it's way more possible than the guys he's going around.
Yeah, I think if the bet in total is just ambiguous
backfield Elite offense like that's that's the bet.
And so if you can get the cheapest guy, Who's likely to
make the roster? I think that's like, that's how
you capture upside, you know, with very little downside.
So gain while I've actually really come around on, right?
I kind of like mixing them in not because I think he's the
most likely guy, but I'm just getting him for free.
Where's like? Swift is the most expensive.
He's going to make the roster but like his projected role is
pretty similar to what we would project gained.
Well to have, if gained while just ends up beating him out,
which is not crazy given that the team just gave up on him.
And he's only, we got a fourth-round pick behind his
name now and then Penny isn't a lock to make the roster.
So I've started to cool on Penny and I met I love betting on
Penny because I think he's such a talented roster and I think
you'd be such a good fit with this Eagles like offense when
they're maybe not up by three scores but when they're up by
one and a half or two, you know, they're just gonna they're going
to lean on him and he can score a bunch of touchdowns but Is
pretty expensive for like doesn't maybe doesn't make the
roster or start the season on. I are like that's it, makes me a
little queasy. That's what I've taken very
little penny in post draft stuff, just because the
pre-draft stuff I was so overweight that.
Like now, I just feel that the risk is the risk of it that I
can't take. I cannot take penny at at
running back, 37, right now. I think I would.
So this is like a nuanced. Take where, if I hadn't loaded
up on him pre-draft, I probably would be fine with the price,
but the fact that I have is making me to say, hey, if
Penny's a smash, I got plenty of bullets.
Where he's? Yeah.
Smash already. So yeah, if so one question.
If the Eagles played the Giants and week 17, Boston Scott would
be, what? Like a fourth-round pick?
Yeah, running back running back. 35 two touchdowns lock it in.
Yes, I like more than medicine. Yeah.
Okay, a couple other things here.
I don't think if you talk about too much Jeff, Wilson and most
are down. I think that's pretty obvious.
Kettle is down for, who knows what?
Reason, that doesn't make any sense to me, but the tight end
prices up as we talked about continue to be cheaper than they
were last year, especially for like the second or third-tier,
guys, whatever you want to call like the kid'll Hawkinson pits
God. Tear.
Those guys are pretty cheap, it's totally irrational, it's
totally rational Kettle Kettle. Should actually be going up.
As it becomes more clear that Purdy's going to be ready.
Be going up. Exactly right, man.
He should be going up and he's going aye-aye, Jake.
I take all these 49ers right now Debo.
I you, yeah, it'll Elijah Mitchell.
I take all of them right now because of the other thing is,
it quarterbacks are, are getting cheaper.
But with so many of my team's not having an elite quarterback.
I want to take three a lot and Pretty.
You could still get like 15 16. Yeah.
And the thing is like, okay is the key to the season, really
going to be like draft Chiefs wide receivers and the 49ers
like is that is it, could it be that easy?
But like the way the atp's are setting up like That's it could
be that easy like I don't I mean the other thing too is that like
I like the Commander's wide receivers coming back.
I like orange ice. I like they fit the way you
build. Your team's is.
Okay, I take Kettle. Then I take Datsun like you
could just you could just get right through it.
Yeah. And I mean I take Brian Robinson
and Gibson. I think they're both Robinson is
now starting to go behind Gibson sometimes which I also think is
irrational. Like that's all right, they are
planets. Unite our in Roberts.
You think we're rational, Gibson Gibson is the much better bet.
Don't don't get to. Don't get to the same cause no,
no, no, don't get too bogged down in the scoring system
because that's exactly what it is.
Brian Robinson's better Batten, and a format.
No that's not what it is. It's a he's the starter and
they're using him in the receiving game as well.
Like you missed that like any Russian.
Look at last year, it was better than Gibson and any rushing
style. You look at last year and he got
shot before. The And let me, let me tell you
a secret about, like, come on, guys, like better.
And every rushing stat and literally was shot before the
season. Come on.
I think there's a couple or Gibson's better, but I like that
breakfast, receiving stuff, maybe.
But I don't know, like Gibson Gibson is just like if you look
at all the stuff, we like to look at in terms of like
profiling, guys, he's a better player and this terrible, this
this, this horrible no-good Antonia Gibson is a loser.
We who we got a draft at Running Back 40 season, but he just had
came in with 900 yards, five touchdowns in 58 targets, like I
just, I like both. I like both.
It's a bad. I really like to make so Sam's,
right? By the way, the ones that I
thought Gibson had been a head on, it was NFL next interested
Observer expected but he wasn't. Brian Robinson was like decently
better. He performed above expectations
and Gibson was below Robinson. Also had a better success rate
than Gibson, which is like kind of why Robinson's ahead I think
is that like he does running back stuff.
He hits the right hole. He you know they trust him to
kind of be a reliable running back now to Inverted receiver.
And I think that Matt like I do think listen, I don't want to
pay like a big premium for that like a fifth round six around
price just because like the coaches like a guy and I don't
think he's that talented, like I hate doing that but if it's in
the ninth or tenth round like I'm getting the guy that the
coaches want to start and was like an okay Russia last year
and is in a total zero in the passing game.
Like it's feels like picking up coins on the sidewalk.
I got like all right. Sweet like free money.
And then what do I get for that free money?
Like I get to load up on my receiver earlier, take
Robinson's kind of that. Zero running back guy for me
right now even though he's gross.
He's not as he's not as sexy as Gibson.
Yeah, I mean I think we both like we both.
I think all three of us like both of them.
I think that's fair to say. So like I don't want to like are
going to Gibson more when he was the like significantly cheaper
now. Exactly.
Yes, it's closing its closing a little bit because virgins are
in on Gibson myself. Include I mean I like Gibson a
lot more just because I can I can tell myself such a story
about Gibson where is Brian Robinson.
The story I tell is that he just has three yards and a cloud of
Dusting his way to, you know, sixteen and a half points.
Yeah. Why can't remember after David
Montgomery's rookie season? When we were like Montgomery
sucks, we have no interest in Montgomery but like and guess
what? Dave Montgomery does kind of
suck, but he had a decent stretch in his second year where
he was like running all over terrible defenses and the team
as we thought they would used him a lot and like I think tree
Cohen got hurt at the end of that.
Season. And so that, that helped his
snap share. But like in a sense you know, he
does also have contingent value because it gives him where to
get hurt and they're just like well Chris Rodriguez Rodriguez,
isn't it? We're going to just like ride
this guy Robinson's the guy who could, you know, have a 75%
snaps. You're pretty easily if Gibson
mrs. Time.
So yeah, I mean that coaches Trust on early Downs.
I think he's helpful. It's not everything but it is
helpful and you're and you're paying like very little for it.
You're almost like paying nothing for it at this point.
And now you're paying nothing. And I mean, it sounds like, I
was joking a little bit, but like he literally got shot like
a month before the year. Like, is it not impossible that
that like severely impacted his training and little?
I think, I think dance, like, I think you are 100%.
Correct. I think you, I totally buy your
point. Like, I think I could be better,
could be better than last year, like we say that about pretty
much every second year back, is that they, I was drafting some
nausea hair. So I thought, stunk as a rookie
thoughts, dunk last year, and thoughts things now but I Drive
to the most of them last year because I was like, he's a
second-year player. Like who knows like leaving a
better had terrible efficiency and it was amazing as a second
here. It's guy like that.
First off season is helpful. But anyways, back to the Davis
is over. We'll both your eyes points
around Washington San Francisco. The stack is pretty cheap.
It's got on the middle here. I mean, basically that this
chart is interesting, right because it's like Kansas City.
Cincinnati is like very expensive and then it's a bunch
of games that are all kind of similar like Miami through
Baltimore. More all the way through
Washington's through San Francisco.
It's kind of like similar prices on these Stacks, which is
understanding. There's not really like huge
standouts, but it's, you know, for how good San Francisco is
expected to be this year. Like I think they still have the
third highest Super Bowl odds or something like that.
Like, I think the San Francisco stack.
If you hit on the right guys, has a ton offside relative the
call. So I'm definitely with you guys
are still don't have a much more open to taking Port Purdy.
Now, what Like kind of mildly targeting pretty now.
He's my he's my most draft of quarterback and best Ball Mania
for right now just saying. Yeah, but it's not like, it's
not like I'm trying to do it but the he just is always there.
He's all like compare the ceiling that we have already.
Seen Brock Purdy do we've already seen multiple 30 burgers
at a block party in NFL games that count against the standings
and compare that to what your base expectation for CJ, Stroud
and Bryce. Young is, it's just, it's almost
the only thing keeping Purdy from going where Derek Carr
goes. Is that the 49ers have not had a
press conference saying pretty is healthy, and will be our
starter and week one. That's it.
The, the second, the, when they do that, when it's time to come
in for training camp and pretty, I believe, actually the date,
they said they were going to know, pretty like, goes back
into a surgeon to be re-evaluated pretty soon.
And whenever That happens. And they do that report and they
say, he's ahead of schedule. He's on schedule.
He's behind schedule. That's going to be an inflection
point for his price. I agree.
And you can stack it up. I mean if you don't get pretty
like I have a team without a cowl hood, you can take healthy
one but you just don't need either quarterback.
Like I've done this since the beginning of, you know, on
patches just say the name. Who's the quarterback in
Washington, you're taken. I'm not taking Brissette.
I don't see why I need to be right.
Like, why do I have to be right? I just don't I just I just don't
want to be wrong, right? There's points in this game.
How do I get those points? Well kiddo.
Il Divo. I uke.
Elijah, Mitchell. Christian McCaffrey all seem
like awesome bets Datsun. McLaren great bets.
Now, I need to like, make a kind of a shitty bet on Jacoby were
sad or same howl, like no, I don't want to make that bet, why
don't? I make a bet on Anthony
Richardson and get him single stacked and not have to worry
about that shit. Like I love, I love the Anthony
Richardson, and you just take one of Alec Pierce or Josh towns
and that's it. That's the only, it's only
thing. It's only thing you do, I'm done
and I think it's good. I can get down.
So I want to double it to. I could take a Jelani Woods
tackle and stuff like that, like I can get that so cheap.
And then I have this other game game stack, sniping me on Purdy
is like, it does nothing to me, like, I have a kettle.
I think I had like, I think it was kid'll, I you Ken Depot on a
team and I didn't get pretty and I don't fucking care like
because because guess what, what if Purdy misses the first six
games and you know he's like a it actually would have hurt me
to take him. Like I'll be fine with that.
That pretty point. I'm usually in that build I will
have you know at least one early quarterback.
Sure if I had didn't have pretty and I have like Derek Carr Bryce
young and CJ, Stroud, like that fucking size.
But if I have taken care of quarterback early, I just I
don't mind it and you can always, you can Target pretty as
your quarterback to or you can you can you know, figure out
quarterback to elsewhere, you'll be fine.
I think one thing, this isn't quite on the level of like
Jameson Williams having one catch last year, but like, I
feel like I've been psyop with the Sam Howell week.
We Katie. Yeah, 40 he had for you rushing
yards. Passing stat was 11 for 19 for
169 yards one. Touchdown, and one interception,
I know he added some rushing, but I feel like when people talk
about that game, like, in my head, I thought he threw for
like, 300 yards or something, but 11 419, like, I don't know,
it's at this point, I think Howell is becoming an even worse
pick than he's been all offseason.
And I think he's been a terrible pick all offseason because just
play the game from the Pretty side.
If you're insisting that, you must take a quarterback from
they can take pretty and like take per diem.
Single stack them like if you've 1p take pretty and Elijah
Mitchell, just bet on the 49ers like sure.
You know. Yeah.
Why do you need to be right? That Howl's the guile season.
It's a thin bet. It's a very thin bet.
Yeah. I think you actually just hit on
like a larger point which almost never gets discussed when we're
talking about why stacking is so effective and so good in this
format, which is like, obviously, yes.
You need to score the week 17 points, but there's this other
sort of hidden element. That people just totally
overlooked which is that stacking is going to help your
weekly scores by quite a bit because the weeks where your
Brock birdie gets 30 a week 8 rock party gets 33.
You probably also just got at least one Spike week with your
stack. It like it improves your regular
season scores by quite a bit to maybe not on a median you know
maybe Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo score the exact same
number of fantasy points over 17 weeks but the way in which it
impacts the scores available to your lineup is going to be
really beneficial. Yeah, now I agree with that.
I think there's certainly something to like the layering
aspect there where if you kind of heavily stacked two or three
offenses, the odds that one of them is going to go off in any
given week and like count a lot towards your roster points like
I don't have math or the hard numbers to back that up but I
definitely buy that. That's that's true.
Yeah I mean I guess I can call up a dinner Leone to verify that
I'm not just talking out of my ass but that that It's just,
that is my intuitive sense. Yeah, same for me, we don't have
to be perfect in these, you know, week 17, not every player.
It's going to hit your line up so you don't have to be perfect.
Like you can have some misses, you can be directionally
accurate with these with these Stacks.
You don't want to draft guys who like don't play, you know, at
all season, that's going to hurt you.
But like, if you that on an offense and that offense is
awesome and MIT mispriced, maybe they're not awesome but they
were they were too cheap. And that's going to help you in
a big way. Get to the playoffs, get through
the playoffs. If you're over stacked and week
17 like I don't know that that hurts, you all that much, you
know, maybe it will. If we get like way sharper with
this stuff or field sizes start to get bigger and bigger.
And, you know, if I had to take down a 5,000 person tournament,
I think I would be pretty, pretty sketched out by over
stacking because I need to be very, very right.
I need to hit on like all the right.
Spike week. You know it let's say there was
a 500,000 final invest ball, you're going to need to
essentially get all the correct Spike weeks on one team or at
least you have to have like, you know, 75% of them or something,
you can't like be mostly, right? You have to be pretty close to
perfect but that's not what we're doing right now.
It's 441 and best of all media for.
Yeah, I'm on the side of like whenever I post a team and I get
the feedback like I post one other day, I took Daniel Jones
and then my Three wide receivers.
I took Hodgins Slayton. Somebody else.
I do it might have been pilot or one day or something and I got
all this feedback that's like oh you're betting against yourself
like all three of those guys can't hit, like, guess what guys
if I like fifteenth sixteenth and eighteenth round picks.
Don't all hit in the same week like I'm going to be okay.
Like Pat one best Ball Mania with literally a second round
pick not counting towards his lineup.
Like there's this weird perception with over stacking, I
think where it's like, oh you're you're over correlating it can't
all work out like Like great that I understand, I understand
that. Like I'm not saying Daniel Jones
is going to throw to a hundred yards to each of Hodgins Slayton
Antoine de on a single game. It's about getting one or two of
those guys to hit your lineups at a very joint Austin.
Yeah. Want problem is one?
Yeah. If you're 15 16 and 18 round
pick of one of those guys hits in week. 17.
Yeah. Or even week 15 or 16.
I mean like Slayton scores a long touchdown, you know and
like it's also nice to if you have Daniel Jones, you know
right. Like you have Daniel Jones,
Darren Waller and then you take like three stabs at Giants wide
receivers like that is truly an over stack.
But you get the the Giants score points in week, 15, and Slayton
happens to score a touchdown. You've got your starting
quarterback taken care of your tight ends taken care of, and
you got a meaningful week out of a very low value pick.
I mean, we do not get many points out of these last round
picks, you get. Something to hit your lineup out
of there. It's huge.
So like yeah you played you played like sort of
conservatively in the end like saying I'm making a bet on the
Giants and I'm going to sacrifice a few pics to make
this one bet but the payoff is still well worth that, you know,
it's worth three dollars of your team.
You know you spent three late round picks on the Giants.
It's like 34 dollars of draft Capital at of a 200 dollar
budget if we were talking auction terms.
Well if you get, if you get that pay off that the Giants score
points and one of those guys has hit your If that's worth like
that, the payoff on that for Dollar Bet is fucking huge.
Yeah, yeah. And I so there's some people
saying like, there's a huge price difference between like
the Giants and Jax and I get I get that point of it.
I don't disagree with that, that like, I'm more inclined to do
one of these Mega stacks on a team where all the wide
receivers are very cheap. But like I also I'm I think
verse the field, I'm still more comfortable with these Mega
Stacks than other people are, because Like, okay, I take, I go
49ers, I'm not saying this is like ideal but I take, you know,
I you Debo and kettle on. The 49ers are each of those guys
going to hit their ceilings like, at the same time and one
week. No.
And did I spend a lot to like, get those guys?
Yes, I get that. But if the 49ers offense is
firing down the stretch, I kind of like the idea of like Ayub
doing nothing and weeks, 15 and 16.
But I'm carrying him to week 17 because I'm betting on the
stand. Cisco offense.
Just firing and, you know, Debo and Killian those bike weeks and
then I get to week, 17. It's like Kittle Chalk in the
finals. Like it was last year, and I
have this like, correlated part of my bet that I'm like
intentionally sneaking through. Like, I think people
misunderstand a little bit. Like, you could survive weeks,
15 and 16 with your fifth or sixth round pick contributing,
like, nothing 15 or 16. Totally.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. You can.
That's why this is such a fun game like you can.
Yeah. And we saw that two years ago.
With t Higgins and Jamar Chase. Chase being the guy you needed
in the final but like you and you want to be conscious of like
price. Yes.
Yeah. And this offense actually
support this many guys, but the 49ers are a great example where
like I feel very first of all the price strikes me as just low
on all of them. Period.
Yeah and then I you guys not like hammering right now but I
think you could certainly make the case is underpriced.
I like it ain't getting Rave rave reviews.
He's getting rave reviews. All the all the guys are is
actually a sneaky Riser on this chart which we can talk about.
So maybe because I haven't taken a ton of him, he's the one that
I probably need to get a little bit more bullish on but but
kid'll I mean, come on. You know you're getting him in
the sixth round like a middle is a layup.
Yeah, I like both running backs. You know, I'm happy to take
McCaffrey at 3 and if he falls for five, I love that Mitchell.
Is one. My favorite Targets in that?
Yeah, double digit range. So is there a third running
back? We should be taken.
I mean, there's like, Syria and Iraq alive.
I mean, close your eyes. It's week, five.
Elijah Mitchell's turned his ankle.
It's a Wednesday night episode of ship chasing Peter over zet
is telling crane not to say exactly how much they're bidding
on Jordan Mason because it's over 400 f f.
PC free agency dollars, right? Like you could do not emit
revert. The only thing you didn't get
right there is that I'm yelling at P0.
That's right, that's right. That's right.
Yeah, like it's just you but you can see that like you just it's
right there. And then the next happening, the
next stage of that is you spend $400 in Jordan, Mason Thursday,
you get the rotor World blurb, that they signed to Tevin
Coleman to a contract and he's the guy you need.
That's, that's definitely a next.
The next thing that well you need.
You just like yeah, right. Yeah, Kevin Kevin Coleman had 12
carries in three targets and two touchdowns as a member of the
49ers last season. That's crazy.
That's what's always. So funny is like, you, you
always under eight, how many of these Veteran running backs?
Like truly show up from the great like latavius Murray had
like legit Spike weeks down the stretch last year for the Denver
Broncos. And, and by the way, he's on the
bills right now he'll probably be cut from the bills but he's
showing back up on someone's team this year.
That's why I keep taking for next time.
He's the The first of those guys that I think Hunt is the pure
cheapest, but I'm a little bit more worried about him.
But I probably it's an argument for taking hunt to like the
NFL's chaotic. These guys are gonna going to
get snaps from these guys. That teams historically have
trusted. Like I think I think it's under
it even like latavius, you want to spend 18 that are PW heaviest
Marie. I'm not doing it.
It's certainly disgusting but like he's so old.
That makes it tough. It's so old.
Yeah. But it's like, he's just a guy
that coaches trust like even last year you already got
worried. Got more guaranteed money than
Damien Harris, which is the weirdest part of this whole
bills thing. I do not understand how that
happened but he did. Anyways, I want to talk about
this chart quickly. So, you guys have seen this
positional ADP chart, that we've done a bunch.
I just took a slightly different look at it.
And so, starting with the running backs, what this chart
is showing, it's a little complicated, but it's showing
these green bars here. Or the year-over-year difference
in running back position Ali DP. So so look at this - to here on
the far left side. This means that negative 2 means
the rb1 last year Christian McCaffrey was going at pick one
overall and this year he's going at pick three, right?
So that's a two spot difference in positional ADP first last
year. So what I kind of wanted to show
here is just like we hear a lot about how the Running backs are
a lot cheaper than they were last year, but I think it is
sort of important to note like where they are most cheaper
versus last year, versus where they're actually kind of like
similar. Just so we can understand like
how this year's draft landscape is reacting to last year's
results. And I think there is sort of
this clear Trend, where you look at this like pink box here
running backs to through 17. So that's everyone from Austin
Eckler at running back to to Aaron Jones at running back 17.
Those are the guys that are going significantly cheaper than
last year. So it's some of the guys in the
two, three turn. It's your room Andres briefs
etcetera, group in there. And then also sort of like, the
early Dead Zone, guys are going much deeper.
But then like, look at this blue box here, running backs, 30
3249, those guys are on average, just two picks cheaper a 2022
and though that's a range we're running backs historically.
Mash, that's where we saw. You know, Kenneth Walker last
year, am Andre last year all these guys that were major
smashes and that range but they're actually not cheaper,
really this year compared to last year, if you certainly are
a little bit a little bit, but if you average that whole group,
right? And like this was arbitrary
ranges, like you could, you could pick it differently but
they're not as cheaper as the the early round running backs
are, is the point I'm trying to make.
So, like everyone, everyone is kind of like doing Being the
strategy of like fade thoroughly running backs.
And then I'm going to catch up with these, like, 0r B Targets
later. Like, are they doing it?
Is everyone doing that? I'm not seeing a lot of that,
and that's not really what I'm doing.
The ball. I don't know what you're doing,
but I'm just saying 80 like a teepee wise here.
The like, here's the fact like running backs to through 17 R11
picks cheaper than they were in 2022.
Running backs 33 through 49 or two picks cheaper so it's like a
full round cheaper first like two picks cheaper.
That's the point. I'm trying to make is that like
I'm not this doesn't mean that like you have to like search for
the guys that are Ranges that are most cheaper verse last
year. And that's what you should be
targeting. I'm not saying that's a
strategy, I'm just saying like that's how drafters are reacting
to the draft landscape. This year's there, they're
saying let's fade like the the early, or the late rb1, early
rb2 prices like significantly. Let's like slightly, Faith are
saying let's let's not draft, the RV ones, as early as we did
last year. I think is yes, they're not
necessarily fading. Because what is happening is
these guys are being selected. And I think what might be
happening as well, is that I actually don't maybe like Hayden
or someone could put this together, but my guess is that
our bees are being drafted on a greater number of teams through
the early rounds than last year. That like, if you look at how
many teams running back. Yeah, a higher.
Number of them have an early round running back this year
than last year. So I went I think Like if there
are 12 teams of it early round running back this year versus
last year. If there's 12 teams in a draft,
right? Then I don't know last year,
let's say like seven of them had an early round running back.
How are you defining, maybe that's too low.
But around this radios. Yeah, yeah, sure.
You rounds. One runs one through three.
Okay. How many of these teams have an
early? Have a running back through the
first three rounds? I would, I would guess that more
of the 12 teams have at least one running back for the through
the first three rounds than last year.
That like on average, probably like Ten teams have at least one
running back. Now, maybe it was only nine last
year, something like that. Because it's it's easy.
It's just easy to take these guys and maybe I don't take too
but I'm way more comfortable, taking one just from personal
experience, I have a lot more teams that have at least one
running back through the first three rounds than I did last
year. So Pat, I think like maybe where
the where I'm getting lost. There's I agree with you that
like me as a drafter. I have more early-round running
back teams than I do last year and I like I understand that you
do as well, but I'm pretty skeptical that On average more
people up early running back teams this year than last year
because last year, there were like 20 running backs going in
the first three rounds and this year, they're like 12.
It's like I have a really if you're defining earlier on
running back, is the first three rounds like nearly twice.
As many running backs, we going in the first three rounds last
year compared to this year, so, like I'm pretty, I'm pretty
skeptical that that's that, that's true.
Like, I don't actually have that good enough for my, you right.
It might not be true, but I think what, But the biggest hit
to drafting style has been going three like going three running
backs. You know, going it's a much
harder to go to running back. So I think the biggest thing
with what is causing, this is not that there's a bunch of
people. Fading all early round running
backs. Certainly that there are people
going 0 running back but I think relative to last year.
I don't know. I it's like tough for me to see
that being the main driver of this.
I think that what is more likely the main driver is that more
teams are just doing one or just doing to that might have
otherwise done three and that you're seeing thinner running
back rooms, maybe not a ton of Zero running back rooms relative
to the number of 01, back teams last year.
Yeah. I mean it could be possible that
there's more, there's more one running back teams this year and
yeah, like I see your point. There's a way to like make the
math work out but like I don't know, like Zero running by
things could be up for sure. But I guess what I would say is
if they are up my guess is that like One running back teams are
also up like to two and three. Running back teams must be down.
They must be down significantly. Yes you.
That's that's what I'm saying. Yeah to is like has to be down
and that's like maybe part of the reason why I've been looking
at this. I also looked at Chad Mash key
could be messing up his last name there but he did some work
in the badge Bros Discord where it pulled a bunch of data
together and I was looking at to running back starts because I
kept hearing like, oh, you know, taking running backs in rounds
two and three is becoming like the chalk.
Build. I'm like, mathematically, that
that can't be true. If they're right, well, running
backs going in the first three rounds.
So, like, I want to push back against that, like, wide
receiver wide receiver wide receiver, a great, a great
lesson that screenshots of teams on Twitter are not attempt the
temperature taker of the market, right, right.
What did you guys find that? So wide receiver wide receiver
wide receiver is that chakir than wide receiver, two wide
receivers in a running back through the first three.
No, that feels like no stop. That's killed.
Right. One leg doctor three.
Yeah, one running back through. Three is certainly the most
popular, but three wide receivers is more popular than
wide receiver running back running back.
Okay. Yeah, it might not be it's and
it's probably I didn't quite cut the numbers this way.
Like to running just two running backs.
No matter where you took get. It could be round one and round
three, round one and round two, that's probably slightly more
popular than three wide receivers.
Purrs but it's actually quite close which makes sense right.
Like if there's if there's any teen, there's 18 wide receivers
like go on the first three rounds, there's 12 running backs
so that means on average teams are taking one running back,
just like 12 divided by 12 and one and a half wide receivers.
So like it should be true that the odds of like taking three
wide receivers and two running backs is like clothes.
I'm making some jumps in logic there but you maybe get the
general point of that so yeah. Yeah.
Two different drought-like. Anyways, I think there's a lot
more work to like thinking about these numbers and we're at an
hour 50 now. So like will skip through this
for now unless people are other points.
But I think it's just interesting.
Like when you're thinking about where you're Drafting and you're
thinking about getting discounts this year, based on how the
draft rooms are overreacting, like, think about a little bit
where you're getting the biggest discounts not.
So, I've got it entire strategy on that.
But think about it a little bit, I've got a great, I've got a
great anecdote to really illustrate Rate this entire
thing. Chris olave was the number 12
overall 10th, or he's top 10 ish pick and the actual NFL draft
last year. Jackson, put that big boat was
the 20th pick in this year's draft.
Think a lot of it was like 12th or 13th and 12th 12th sounds.
Right, let's call it 12. Let's call.
It was just a matter for this anecdote, very high NFL draft
pick, his team, really wanted him jack it up the bonds to get
him trained. To like multiple first projects
together, yes Jackson Smith and jig but actually fell way later
than NFL draft prognosticators. Thought to a team with two
really good wide receivers with basically no injury history.
Lock, it is missed a couple games here and there Metcalfe, I
believe has has never missed a game since coming in to the NFL
and he's going about 35 spots in just raw a BP.
I had to wear a lot of it went last year.
Like yeah, like people are just people the the piss boy, cabal
loves wide receivers and they really love rookie wide
receivers to the point that like I don't want to have 0 JS, n but
trying to tell yourself a story where Jackson Smith and Jake but
has an advanced rate above average of above 8.3% without
locket or Metcalf getting hurt. You literally can't.
There's no math. You can do come.
I know you love. You love Smith and I know that
you can tell me that. Tell me the tell me the math
based story. Where sixth round, jsn going
ahead of Tyler. Lockett has an advanced rate
above 8.3%. I think he also you could even
say fifth round. He's going at pick 59.
Now, he's on the fireplace, fifth during.
Yeah, it's technically fifth round.
Yeah, it's definitely tougher in the fifth round but I think in
the sixth round he plays a lot. They play more three wide
receiver sets than expected. He get Did an extremely high
rate went on the field, which seems extremely plausible to me,
given that he gets open really quickly and, you know, Smith
likes to throw short, and he's very accurate to the short area
and he doesn't like pass Tyler Lockett into wide receiver sets,
but he's not a pure slot receiver.
They are willing to move him to the outside, they're willing to
move them around the formation and they are willing to have
Tyler Lockett, not run every single route in order to get jsn
on the field Beyond just kind of a pure slot receiver level of
routes. Infuse in that type of situation
in earning targets at a really high rate.
Then you can easily have an above-average advance rate and
then, yeah. In the in the playoffs you it
really would be nice if it's down to him or mecca for him or
lock it or or if he just at that point, Tyler lock, it's 30 years
old, whatever, he passes him by the end of the season.
That that, I think I'd the reason to take jsn has almost
nothing to do with Advanced, right?
For me, it's all about, it's all about him.
Turning into a Montross, a brown and the plastic, Reason to take
him but I think he can do that and have an above average
Advanced, right? These are these are the target
totals for the third leading Target.
You like 10% Pete, Carroll offenses.
Third last year. Noah Fant 1863, 2021 Gerald
Everett with 63 2020. We got David Moore with 47 2019.
We've got Jacob Hollister with 59, the point being, this would
be a huge. Huge break from the way the
Seahawks had played. Now, you want to get down to
brass tacks. You can say their third tight
end played 44% of the snaps last season.
Colby Parkinson, played 44% of the Seahawks, snaps Marquis
Goodwin played about 35%, Dwayne Eskridge played about 15%, given
Goodwin snaps, take half from the fourth wide receiver, take
half from the second tight end from the third tight end.
And all of a sudden you're up to like the same snaps, you'd
expect from like Quinton Johnson.
Then or whatever. Yeah, the other thing that I
would say to is that with these highly condensed offenses, you
can read that. Is this offense, only has enough
room for two guys or these coaches believe in getting their
best Playmakers. The ball like does do the
Dolphins, does that flow through waddle and Tyree kill because
Mike McDaniels, like been unable to get other people to ball
like, or because he doesn't want to get other people to ball.
He wants to get waddlin Tyree. Kill as many targets as he
possibly can. So if J SN is really good, which
is the whole bet, the whole bed is that he's awesome so far, so
good on that front, he's having really good training or OT a
reports. They talk about how they are
playing. Some on the outside already DK.
Metcalf was talking up. What a professionally is there?
Like we just need to give him a Playbook like he has everything
down. He just needs to learn all the
plays. He's going to be hitting the
ground running. It's exactly what you want to
hear because jsn that's the bet the bet is he's a Ultra
professional. My receiver despite being a
rookie he's going to be able to have incredible route running
technique out of the gate. Get open immediately earned
targets at a high rate so far so good.
It's not like I do think the market has done a good job and
pricing in the upside here but I don't think that he couldn't
have an above-average advance or a even if he mostly is just that
end of the season play like a guy.
I think he probably would be like 18% Advance rate in a in an
upside scenario, like I think it'll be slightly above average.
Average. But yeah, I'll, I guess like I'm
fading jsn on Underdog and I get all your.
I like Patty made all good arguments like I don't like, I
don't disagree with the thesis of what you're saying.
But to me, there's a couple things.
One DraftKings, you can get them like a full round cheaper in
PPR. He strikes me as like even two
rounds cheaper something? Yeah, he strikes me as a guy
that pays off more in PPR than he doesn't have PPR for sure.
And to me it's just in the fifth round.
It's too much of a Parlay that I have to hit.
I have to, he has to be really good.
He also has to be really good and better than Tyler Lockett
and DK Metcalf at like winning on the outside.
He has to like Geno Smith has to continue his outlier performance
from last year. Like and also I don't know, this
is kind of, this isn't a fourth thing is it's baked into what I
originally said. But we're wrong about these
rookie wide receivers all the time especially in how they're
going to produce in year one and like I don't know man.
Like Like it's just when I know I can get him to rounds cheaper
on other websites. Like I just I don't see any
reason to draft him. I had some of these veterans
that I know are going to be playing and I know are good at
football. I'm not saying I think Jason's a
bad Prospect, not saying he's going to be bad but like the
price doesn't make any sense to me and like I don't see any
reason to take him on Underdog but listen if you want to just
load up on DraftKings, I think that's a really sharp way to
play this. I think the underdog price is
more efficient. I think it's because why should
you get the upside that he offers late season is if that
isn't what we're playing for? Why should you get that for
free? You should have to pay for that?
I don't know. Like I just think that like he
could be really good and like we could like we could be right
about liking him as a prospect, but we get to week 17 and he's
slot, only, he runs 60% of routes, I don't like I just
think those areas like our, I think those that's like the
median scenario. Like I think people are under
rating lock it here, but I think you're gonna like it.
I take a lot of walk it to markets to me.
The guy I don't think Metcalf. Is it all appropriately priced.
The idea of taking a third round Metcalf to me is like I just
have I don't I don't know that. I've drafted him like I think
he's he is priced in correctly so that that It's the one where
I love, I love taking Lockett where he goes, and I will take
locket / JS n especially if I if he's like my wide receiver
three. You know, if I've taken enough
detours where I am now, I've already taken 3D tours through
five rounds, round, six and lockets.
They're like I'm I'm smashing lock it.
You know, even / JS n. So I need a professional wide
receiver but yeah, I think jsn does does offer quite a bit of
late season upside so. That should be priced in.
Yeah, that's fair. Anyways, I've taken to DK
metcalf's I've taken it looks like I took a somehow, I got 217
dollars on DK. Metcalf ticket % DK.
Metcalfe is in the range. Wait you have the 2 % DK
Metcalf? Yeah I looks like two puppies in
a poodle I've taken DK. My calf dude.
Have fun staying poor. What are what?
I think it's honestly he might be the worst price wide receiver
in the on the market. He's good, he's not.
I mean come on dude. Fucking man.
He looks great. But like you're getting your
having to pay up for this. This crowded wide receiver room
you having to pay third round price.
I can get a fifth or sixth round guy it's filling.
This is this is we just are so we're just fundamentally
divorced on what we think. Jsn is going to get targeted
that. So so of course, LACMA cats
horrible for you. I mean, dude, like which got a
better with Gino Smith, like the guy who gets open immediately
and the short area which is like what Geno Smith is best at or D.
Get me who's never actually gone targets at a high rate.
He's there's no way guy there's no self that's going to get me
here. DK Metcalf became a calf had you
know 30. Yeah 30 and FL touchdowns by the
age of 24. He had six last year in what was
Like that to me is anomalous. I think you could argue you
could say the opposite. You could say, madcap isn't the
good fit with Gino and lock? It was the better fit or yeah I
do whatever. I just I I'm not buying, I would
not take J SN / DK Metcalf. I want to be clear on that, I
know. But if you if you think that the
jsn price is more appropriate and I'm saying I'm having a hard
time getting their, your mental piece of pie division amongst
the Seattle wide receivers is going to be different than mine.
Yeah, fair enough. Fair enough.
To me the locket is that if you want to play this through a
veteran, lock it is. I mean it just talk about
Metcalf first lock it like I'm not going to show you very
quickly ceiling that catches our dog's a lot lot, more targets
than lock it the last two years like a lot more like like over
like one and a half per game more Let me see what.
I don't know that fold up, but it looks 26 like, rah, rah
targets would be that. That's about right for last
year. I don't know if either than miss
any games, but if you want to dismiss, locket is missed one
game each of the last two years. Yeah, crocodiles, I mean 21
percent Target for real run. Metcalf is at 25%.
Yeah. Mm, that is better.
That cap is better. Metcalf is better than locket
like a lot. Like I was better than locket.
Yeah, I wouldn't say I don't I don't want to Peyton.
I don't want to pay three rounds for it, but this is where I'm
just like they're both so good in like, I don't know II, just
feel like taking crazy pills with the jsn stuff sometimes
because it's like he could be like a solid hit as like an NFL
career and as like a pick in the first round but not Be very
relevant in Year One. Like, I don't know that that
seems like the most likely outcome to me but yeah, I know
that does not seem like the most likely outcome to me.
I think like he's a very strong Prospect was drafted in the
first round great fit for what they need.
I think he's I think he's going to make some noise.
I don't know that he'll be like a guy yet have or anything but
like if we're trying to figure out how to play this offense
saying, the most likely scenario is that this really strong
first-round Prospect Doesn't do much if think is a I think
that's a risky way to approach this.
I think that's why I don't like Metcalf.
He's the he's the most expensive guy in the offense.
So you're saying Jason's not going to do much and I'm gonna
bet on that with the most expensive Guy.
The one who gets the one who gets squeezed.
If J SN is as good, as you think is lock, it lock.
It is. The one lock it is.
The one I met calf is not good. Metcalfe is going to get 140
targets 87 catches and between 900 and 11:00.
You ards. Like just based on the variance
of the deep throws to me but to take Metcalf right.
You're taking him over some of these third round running backs
that are that are great pics. So we just talked about how
those I don't, I don't even bother coming back half cuz I
cuz I do what you're saying, I take Jacobs or Ramon Dre or
briefs or Derrick Henry or whatever.
They're a large chunk of the time, but I'm I'm not coming in
saying like I'm clicking, you know, like like there's such a
huge tear break their like, I'm not taking Calvin Ridley, you
know. No over over him.
I'm just not doing you rarely even get that choice though.
Sure, he goes. He goes usually ahead of Debo so
and I like to do more than Metcalf.
Yeah. I like I like I like Metcalf
more than Depot. Okay.
That's, that's probably why I don't have much Metcalfe, is it?
Because I'm happy to take Debo, but then I get to Ridley Cooper
Kenan, you know, that whole tier 50k was sitting there.
I would 100% makes him in, you know, sure.
Like to me that the tier break has broken like that is like,
Hopkins could sign with the Browns and we're like why was I
taking Amari Cooper again you know like they he's not all that
big of a bet on Talent play. So yeah, if Metcalf Was like an
early fourth round. I would feel a lot more
comfortable, but it's just like he's dead.
I know, it's not like that many total picks but there's a big
tear break at running back and there's a, he's included in this
previous tier of wide receivers that.
I don't think he's a part of it be like a Keenan.
Allen was going in the mid third or something.
A bit of. Why are we doing this?
Yeah yeah I'm with the yeah that's fair.
I do think it is a little weird. Hell I'm not, I'm not with that,
but I'm understanding what you're saying.
Yeah. If anyone wants to book but Bets
with me on jsn, like first basically, any water seemed like
the next like 12. Watterson not, not 12 up to
Jehan Datsun. All those water severs, that go
after jsn, excluding a Darius Tony, I'm taking him out of that
if you don't want to fuck, they were all.
Welcome bats with me on that range of wide receivers scoring
more points than jsn this year. And sure, if you want to, like
say, ah, it's a week 17. That's all that.
That is the point though. Like, you're like, if you want
to, like, if you want to like, no, no, just a little worried.
The whole thesis of the play. I'm happy.
I let me, it's like, you didn't love me.
That's what I'm saying. If you want to structure if you
want to structure it. Like last like eight weeks of
the Season or something. Whose one more point?
You want a structure like that? Sure.
I'll take you on that bed, too. All right, we should sit down.
I think that's exactly money for me.
Okay, let's get some bets going. Anyways, let's wrap things up.
I don't think another to our show for the people.
Just another Monday afternoon. Yeah, can we just on that
running? Back point?
I do want to make one more okay? Sure.
Variation on that chart because I the freight like the way, you
know, you had to make At some point.
But to me, like, what I see here, and Hayden also had a
chart that showed something pretty similar is that there's
running back value that Peters out, it's the running back by is
basically on by Running Back, 40 and it starts to get less and
less is the draft goes on. So to me, the bucketing approach
kind of hides that a little bit, like the larger trend is that
there's a bunch of running back value 2 Peaks around running
back 12 and then it starts to slowly Peter out for the rest of
the draft. I would be aware of that and
that it does feel like that is the case.
It's to me when I'm in these drafts.
Like I don't Jamaal Williams is kind of that cut off.
He's our before T2. I'm like ah and that's right.
We're kind of your RV 42 is going like one pick ahead of
last year. Like that's that's where like I
want to be done. Like I think to execute this
stuff best I would like to have at least three running backs by
that point, maybe for and and Hammer like you can you can have
your cake and eat it too. I think if you get like one of
these early running backs, Advantage of one of those values
mix in a guy maybe in the seventh.
Eighth, you can also take too early.
I totally fine with that but like be aware that the trend
kind of stops this value. Maybe it comes back around again
really late but at that point those are a lot O tickets.
So I would say like to me when I look at this I'm like I want to
I want to be overweight a lot of that, my favorites of this early
group and then I want to be making sure that my teams are
structured so that I don't go. Until like, round 13, with two
running backs. Because now, I'm not getting any
Bargains On Running Backs. Yeah, that's a good point.
Yeah, that's just like, so on this chart where you can see
where the, the running backs are actually more expensive than
last year. It's a very small pocket in that
blue box. I think it's like probably
running backs, 41, 42 and 43, that would be Elijah Mitchell,
Jamaal Williams Jerick McKinnon. So, yeah, that's point is
correct. I agree with it.
Like, once you get there, the discounts and running back.
Like versus last year. No longer exists.
That's not to say that. Those guys are bad pics, like
that. That's not the point.
It's just that I think and maybe I'm wrong about this, but I
think there is a conception that like, oh, running backs are
values relative. The last year everywhere that
the draft, I just want to push back on that, that's slightly.
But I agree with without Pat, phrased it for sure.
Will you say Pickens in that in that last eight weeks of the
Season bet is Pickens viable. Can I let's talk about it.
Hey, Goes before Dotson doesn't go for a Datsun.
Oh yeah, that's it. That's on the border.
I'll take, I'll take that one. All right.
But you have to you have to give me some some other ones to for
you to do that. Well you can't you can't have
Burke's because I like Burke's a lot.
I want I want Addison, I want Deonte I want Trail on.
Well, we'll talk about it. We'll talk about it.
Yeah, negotiated trailing. Okay let's talk.
Talk our favorite values, anybody watch and learn, hi
Chandler, running back running back, 60, 197th overall, tie
Chandler. Be I take I've taken him and I
think every draft, every faster after I've done this last week,
I swear, finally, finally, not a 57 wide receiver featured as my
my favorite pic of the week. I mean that that one's going to
pay. I mean, actually it's going to
pay off in the short term. I think there's like a chance
but I think it doesn't pay off. Yeah, there's a chance.
I might seem Yeah. Jeez.
I feel like I've done so many my favorite ones.
Nice so far. Yeah.
Go for it. I had to had to jump here
saying, because I'm thinking Brock / T taken your boy.
Oh god. I've already, I've already I've
already done. Pretty.
Yeah. I mean, you can still, you can
still do it, but I got him when he was courting, you got them in
a better value. Yeah, yeah.
Not have to bet against his elbow, you gonna take the Arnold
then Yeah, he always seemed Arnold.
No, no, absolutely not. I'll take, I'll take one
actually. I don't even know if I believe
in a teepee value here, but I'm scrambling.
So here Pat, let me go. And then I'll let you go.
Jonathan Mingo. He's one of my highest exposure
wide receivers. I pick 131.
Now, I don't know if the ADP value is going help.
Kelvin. Benjamin featured here on Sam
Sherman's favorite sister, pay off.
But okay we've talked about it. That would have been amazing
picking best quality. Yeah.
Pick one 30 Kelvin Benjamin give it to me but I'm you know I'm
just being stubborn with him. He his profile looks a lot
better. Once you factor in his foot
injury, I know that his analytics profile does not look
good, but they spent her early second round.
Pick on him. There are other wide receivers
are Adam thielen. Who we all agree is garbage, DJ
Chark who I don't. I think some people think DJ
shark is something left. Don't put me in that camp.
I think he's close to done so then you're looking at
havenhurst terrorist Marshall. I mean I just don't see how he's
not at least playing and three wide receiver sets to start the
year and I think he does either charc or feeling pretty easily
and pow I'd to brute a you're turning on Adam thielen man.
How ya Feelin my boy but yeah I'm taking mango it's a good
real life back I don't know if you're getting the clv value but
But Jonathan Miguel. I'll go candy cane.
Well, we talked about earlier. I've gotta battle the only way,
right, with the way he pays off, he get you get teams talking him
up is like one of their clear starters, like it's definitely
gained well. He's involved somehow some way.
And then Penny starts the season on IR something or gets cut.
I mean, he just cannot hold this ATP.
If that happens. Yeah, I like that.
Awesome. Pat.
Anything coming up on legendary upside this week or otherwise,
I'll be having. I'm gonna write tomorrow.
And I'm not sure, exactly, which of like three articles that I'm,
I have like started. I'm going to work on whichever
one strikes, me, but hoping to get a piece out this week on
legendary upside, I will note case you missed it, that we have
dynasty rankings. Now, that's in collaboration
with Davis and Jake. Anderson.
So, check those out. Our first podcast about those
rankings is out on all of our feeds now to so two and a half
hours, maybe even longer honestly and we're doing another
podcast this week on the dynasty rankings.
And the plan is to do a third podcast next week and then a
mailbag pod after that. So there's lots of Dynasty
content right now. Awesome on legendary upset.
It's up. Davis, what do you have going on
two sides of the Dynasty stuff that we got that going on?
I'm hoping to have some under the I've been tweaking around.
Underdog rankings had the conversation with Herzig last
week and I like change, I've like changed and then reflect on
like if you should draft off rankings or just off ATP.
So working on those, I'll probably put those out on the
take cast patreon sometime soon. Then, take cast this week's
Sports good fantasy football podcast.
All the good stuff. Awesome.
Well, yeah, be on the lookout for a Davis is rankings.
I think, Derek Henry's fifth overall in those rankings, but
she'd be sure to keep your eye out in collaboration with dirt,
with David kitchen. Those are you know why?
I was looking at it. I only have 13 percent, which
feels pretty fraudulent considering how much like
because I do. I want to take wide receivers
there a lot. And also, I take Pollard over
him every time. So, if I'm, if I'm on the 28 and
it's parlor door, Henry, I'm taking Pollard, I'm taking
photos are too. Yeah.
Yeah yeah, but but Jacobs are Henry, Jacobs areum, Andre
Jacobs or Breezer Henry, or any of these guys.
I got Henry every time, that's fair.
Alright, I got nothing going on but we'll be back next.
Next Monday, for another episode of ATP, chasing for Pat for
Davis. We will see you guys.