1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:05,640 Week 10 is behind us. We're officially into the double 2 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:10,040 digit weeks of the NFL season and many thought Week 10 would 3 00:00:10,040 --> 00:00:13,480 be a lower scoring fantasy affair with some of the best 4 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,600 fantasy offenses like the Chiefs, Dolphins and Eagles on 5 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:21,440 by. But people forgot about the true 6 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:29,360 number one overall quarterback in the NFL, Pat Fryer, Helmo. 7 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:34,120 This is why This is why I'm hot Anita hand job. 8 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:37,800 Fix your sight, Jamar, and also play Chase. 9 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:43,400 You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at 10 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:44,120 this point. You're right. 11 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:53,160 I'm sorry. I knew what you were going to 12 00:00:53,160 --> 00:00:54,880 say there, and I couldn't let it stand. 13 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:57,920 I'm. I'm guessing that that was your 14 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,600 way of telling me the cold open was going a little too long 15 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:02,160 there. No, that was. 16 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:04,239 I know you're going to talk about Doc Prescott. 17 00:01:04,599 --> 00:01:07,880 I was going to say CJ Stroud. Oh, OK. 18 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:13,440 So I prematurely cut you off. No, CJ Stroud is him. 19 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:17,320 Man, that was that was probably one of my the the games I've 20 00:01:17,320 --> 00:01:20,920 enjoyed watching the most. I mean, it's it's been 2 weeks 21 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,280 now where I I'm just like watching CJ Stroud. 22 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,000 I'm like, this dude is such a cool customer. 23 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:31,680 Like, I feel like you see this with lots of young quarterbacks 24 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,600 or like they look good and then something happens that kind of 25 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:38,480 shakes them and it's just like the wheels immediately fall off. 26 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:42,760 Like Tyson Bajent sticks in my mind as like, I I want to say it 27 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,080 was 2 weeks ago. He's having a good start to the 28 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,240 game. And then just one bad thing 29 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,040 happened. It was like the dude forgot. 30 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,640 Not only did you forget how to play quarterback, like he forgot 31 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,280 how to like walk or like use his body as a human like it. 32 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:59,160 Sent him into a spiral, Yeah, absolutely not a not. 33 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,280 Not happen to CJ Stroud, No CJ Stroud. 34 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,920 Cool as could be so. Before before we get into it, I 35 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:09,960 do notice a new background. Away with the old background. 36 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:14,240 And do you want to talk about that at all, I mean I I guess I 37 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,600 can briefly touch on it. So my, my content will not be 38 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:22,600 over at Spike week anymore, don't have anything definitive 39 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:24,880 yet. I mean I do have my sub stack, 40 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,640 but if you, if you subscribe over there, I really don't plan 41 00:02:28,640 --> 00:02:31,160 on putting out a ton of written content over the next few 42 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:32,680 months. I mean if you want to catch 43 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:36,640 anything that I decide to share, it'll probably be on there and I 44 00:02:36,640 --> 00:02:41,640 I may do something else, but I'll, I'll certainly keep the 45 00:02:41,640 --> 00:02:47,160 people posted on that front. All right, fair enough, fair 46 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:49,840 enough. And so let's let's get into 47 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:55,400 where our first chart here I'm going to add it to stage and 48 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,760 this is our QB passing efficiency and and rushing 49 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:02,840 production chart and so on the horizontal axis we've got. 50 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:06,840 Adjusted yards per tent, which is like normal yards per tent 51 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:10,520 but rewards touchdowns and punishes interceptions. 52 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:14,280 And then vertical axis is touchdown rate and size of the 53 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:18,120 bubble corresponds to their rushing yards per game. 54 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,360 And I guess what what sort of standard? 55 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:23,200 I I guess we say this every week. 56 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,120 This chart is it's pretty stable, right? 57 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,520 I don't see too much movement here. 58 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:35,920 But I do notice that Lamar Jackson, his sort of like run 59 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,400 bad in terms of fantasy production, definitely stands 60 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,480 out as a sort of sore tone where you can see he's obviously 61 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,640 playing really well but just has not been getting the touchdowns 62 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,840 that you'd expect with his yardage production. 63 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,280 Yeah, I think. I think what we need at this 64 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:57,600 point from Lamar to have, like, truly elite fantasy games is we 65 00:03:57,600 --> 00:03:59,080 got to. We got to run into some really 66 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,040 stout run defenses that just refuse to give up those goal 67 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,160 line touchdowns because like Justice Hill had a rushing 68 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,960 touchdown get called back on a hold, Gus Edwards then punched 69 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:11,120 in the rushing touchdown. And it's not that Lamar's not 70 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,560 throwing touchdowns. It's just that the offense is 71 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:18,000 getting enough touchdowns siphoned away from the running 72 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:22,760 game that Lamar's not delivering those big weeks as consistently 73 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:26,240 as you would want him to. I still you know he he's pretty 74 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,720 much perennially a good play in fantasy. 75 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,600 It's just you know all all you need is that touchdown variance 76 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:37,680 to go his way. There is a new a new challenger 77 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,200 approaches on the QB chart. We've got Kyler Murray back from 78 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:45,760 his first game and you know the the rushing wasn't, you know, 79 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,320 quite as high as like Lamar's for example. 80 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,360 But the guy's you know playing his first NFL game in a year 81 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:56,640 coming off ACL and he looks pretty good and I'm actually, 82 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,320 I'm really interested in that match up as a whole this week. 83 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,640 You know we see CJ Stroud, we we talked about how prolific he's 84 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,920 been so far in his young career and we saw it with Joe Burrow. 85 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:11,640 Where Stroud is, is definitely good enough to where he's going 86 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:16,160 to push the other quarterback to have to throw more and you know 87 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,840 create these fantasy friendly environments. 88 00:05:18,840 --> 00:05:23,160 So I'm pretty interested in Kyler with one week to shake the 89 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:28,640 rust off now against CJ Stroud in a Dome, I think that's a 90 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:32,960 really interesting match up this week and both those guys are, 91 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,400 you know, reasonably cheap in the different formats, you know, 92 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:40,520 be it DFS or be it you know, at battle, Royale's on underdog. 93 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:44,920 So I I kind of like that game. And and obviously it it's sort 94 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,880 of obvious but worth pointing out caller Murray 0% touchdown 95 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:53,560 rate in A1 game sample size like he it looks it really looks like 96 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:58,120 he's in the bottom lower section of this chart but he he got you 97 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:02,760 got to cut him some slack on that touchdown rate I I did I I 98 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,720 did see that he had he had a couple of big plays where he was 99 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:10,000 and and I think he had one run where he's clocked at a very 100 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,920 high Max speed. And I I was sort of surprised by 101 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:17,400 that given the ACL return. I thought that the my my 102 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:21,080 expectation was that the rushing stuff was going to be severely 103 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,200 limited in the first couple of games back. 104 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,440 But that that doesn't seem to be the case. 105 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:29,240 It it, it definitely feels like rushing production is still very 106 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:32,480 much on the table for Caller Murray and the rest of the way, 107 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:36,000 which has has got to be. I think that's a big part of his 108 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:40,360 fantasy value, so. If you the way I I normally 109 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:44,000 drafted them this offseason was sort of late in superfax drafts, 110 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,000 so I'm definitely encouraged by that. 111 00:06:48,840 --> 00:06:52,120 Yeah, the way I was normally drafting Kyler this offseason 112 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:56,920 was that I was not. So it it was seeing him look so 113 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,600 good when he came back. And now I'm, you know, I'm 114 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:03,400 looking at these Mac Jones teams where it's like, man, I probably 115 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:07,320 could have had Kyler at similar prices to Mac Jones and a lot of 116 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,840 these drafts. And like, yeah, Mac Jones 117 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:13,160 delivered maybe two weeks for me where I plugged his score and 118 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,880 was really happy to have him. But definitely makes you think 119 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,040 about like the upside of the quarterback. 120 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,520 And I know that Pat talked about this this summer of like you 121 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:25,760 know, back loading, waiting the back end of the season heavier, 122 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:27,960 which is why he was lower on Sam Howell. 123 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:33,800 But it really, you know, makes me think about re evaluating how 124 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:37,080 I looked at a quarterback like Kyler coming off of injury. 125 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,440 Probably not someone I should have zero of, but. 126 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,840 In he was definitely a risk on player where you're getting a 127 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:48,200 severe discount because of an injury, but that injury 128 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:51,760 introduces risk and. You. 129 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:56,480 I mean, I feel like for every player we we see coming back off 130 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:59,360 an injury and they're smashing. Then you you have another player 131 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:03,040 who the first year back they're not quite as good they're 132 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:07,600 they're not quite as productive. So I I think it it's worth 133 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:12,000 keeping in mind that the injury introduces risk and that when 134 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:15,280 you're taking a, when you're taking on the risk of a 135 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,720 currently injured player, you really do want the discount. 136 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:21,160 You you you. I think you need to be very 137 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:25,520 careful about paying like the prior price for somebody who's 138 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:27,960 injured even if they are sort of projected to be back. 139 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:32,840 And I'm not talking about like just normal one month injury, 140 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,440 two-month injuries. I'm I'm I'm talking about the 141 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:39,720 the big injuries like Acls and and and injuries of that 142 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,159 seriousness. Yeah certainly agree with you 143 00:08:43,159 --> 00:08:45,880 there that you want to be price sensitive understand. 144 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,960 I think, I think really it's still this is going to be an 145 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:53,400 edge in in basketball for a long time, but it's understanding and 146 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,520 appropriately pricing that risk we actually. 147 00:08:56,560 --> 00:08:57,840 Right. That's the whole game, right? 148 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:01,760 That's the whole we we had a kind of interesting conversation 149 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:05,360 about this in the Shift Chasing Discord channel earlier this 150 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,560 morning where people were talking about like how much does 151 00:09:08,560 --> 00:09:12,000 a player hurt you in in given rounds if they bust. 152 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:16,400 And I thought about using the Roster Agnostic Advance rate 153 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:22,320 metric to kind of put more of a a measurable value on that so 154 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:26,760 that people understood like hey like I I was DM ING with two 155 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:28,440 four off suit we were talking about it. 156 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:33,160 And last year for example the downside deviation for Roster 157 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,320 Agnostic Advance Rate in the through the 1st 2 rounds was 158 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:40,040 about 6% to your overall advance rate which is pretty massive. 159 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:44,520 It's like a four year you know you're you're going to really be 160 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:46,720 hurting your teams. If you had a, if you had a 161 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:48,840 player that was an underperforming player in those 162 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,000 first two rounds, you're getting crushed. 163 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:54,720 But whereas if you look at like the later rounds it doesn't do, 164 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,920 it doesn't move the needle at all, you know, So really the the 165 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:02,240 actual risk of taking Kyler is just the opportunity cost of 166 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,120 like those dart throw players that you'd be taking at the 167 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,080 skill positions like you know wide receiver and running back 168 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,360 later. So that's something that I don't 169 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,240 think people are are appropriately. 170 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:17,080 So hold on, you're saying that at what round does a bust like 171 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:21,760 become? Not irrelevant, but at a like, 172 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,280 does it become? Who cares? 173 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:26,400 So what? Yeah, just being able to put 174 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:28,000 more of like a quantifiable measure. 175 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:28,640 OK. OK. 176 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,040 That's still sort of in in the in the works. 177 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,840 That's the question that's currently will be answered. 178 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,680 It's basically, I mean it's done. 179 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:39,360 The date is out there too if someone wants to do the work for 180 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,000 me. But, but all the roster agnostic 181 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,080 advance rate stats from last year And then you literally can 182 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:49,320 like, rip my code and and do it again for BBM Four once BBM four 183 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,040 is resolved. Or at least the regular season's 184 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,480 resolved. But if you run that again, get 185 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,640 the roster agnostic advance rate for players and then just bucket 186 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,760 them into like the two round bucketing, you know more. 187 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:03,040 More or less. That'll be fine. 188 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:06,400 You know and and then. You can figure out exactly. 189 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:09,080 And then you can figure out, hey, if you have a player that 190 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,040 busts in the first two rounds, it's about a -, 6% to your 191 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:13,440 advance rate. It's pretty serious. 192 00:11:13,680 --> 00:11:16,400 You get a guy that busts in, you know, the 12th round, it's like 193 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,600 less than a -, 1% to your advance rates. 194 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:19,720 Who cares? Like. 195 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:26,000 And the actual take away dot is. Is don't go for safety in the 196 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:31,480 late rounds, because what you're actually what your risk of bust 197 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:33,600 if you bust there it doesn't hurt you. 198 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:35,000 Not at all. Yeah. 199 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,800 It's literally It does hurt you, but not not in a serious way. 200 00:11:39,680 --> 00:11:43,800 Yeah, the only way it hurt you is that you you picked the wrong 201 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,320 guy for like you had an opportunity. 202 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,600 Cost of This was a roster slot that you'd love to have occupied 203 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,080 by one of these big hits, which can deliver right majorly 204 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,120 outsized boost to advance, right? 205 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,720 But what you actually lose is is so little because everyone 206 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,640 around there is not, you know, it's so rare to get someone. 207 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:05,920 You didn't get Divana Chan, who's a perfect example, taking 208 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,640 a swing for offences and if he didn't work it didn't hurt you. 209 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:13,720 But if if he comes back and he give delivers the same sort of 210 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:18,040 production, well then you you got to have absolutely. 211 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,800 And sorry, I I know I derailed this there a little bit. 212 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:23,600 No, no, no, I I I don't. I don't think we had too much to 213 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,320 talk about on the quarterback chart. 214 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:29,920 And I I, I guess I add one other player. 215 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,440 Where Dobbs. Where? 216 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,280 I was gonna say Dobbs too. So keep going and. 217 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:41,640 So I did I I did notice that his sort of his what you call it. 218 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,880 His yards per attempt continued to actually be quite a bit 219 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:50,720 higher than than his Arizona numbers, so his he didn't. 220 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,560 He didn't. He only got 1 touchdown, so it 221 00:12:52,560 --> 00:12:55,080 was adjusted. Yards per attempt wasn't great, 222 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:58,720 but his his actual his unadjusted yards per attempt was 223 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,960 7.9, which he he can sort of see that that puts him very much to 224 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:04,280 the right hand side of the chart. 225 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,480 And I I I think with the knowledge that he's playing in a 226 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:15,480 much better system with better supporting cast that to to me 227 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:21,000 that that definitely qualifies him as sort of like a above 228 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:26,960 average fantasy player and and and sort of like I feel strongly 229 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,920 that the the skilled position of players around them can can 230 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:34,720 still perform very well as as they have Yeah agree 231 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,800 wholeheartedly with you there let me hit you with a couple 232 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:42,160 rapid fire comparisons and obviously we'll we'll ignore the 233 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:45,400 week to week match up type stuff but just going forward rest of 234 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:49,160 season I want to ask you who you'd prefer just to roll out in 235 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:52,720 a fantasy match up Josh Dobbs or Trevor Lawrence. 236 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:59,120 Oh, I sort of I'm. I think it's this is feels bold 237 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:02,080 but it does feel like Dobbs. It feels like Dobbs. 238 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:05,960 I if I were gonna pick a game where Trevor Lawrence has 239 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:10,400 reminds us who he is game this week looks like a nice spot for 240 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:14,600 that after getting their just turds push in against the 49ers. 241 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:19,080 I I kind of feel like this is all narrative based so don't act 242 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:20,920 on this at all. This is just stupid shit. 243 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:24,480 But I feel like Doug Peterson might want to come out, get his 244 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:26,480 quarterback some confidence, Let him. 245 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,720 Let him throw all over the Titans this week. 246 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,400 So it are are the are the Jags on the main main site this week 247 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:36,760 they are yeah, it's Jags Titans. And you can get you can get 248 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:40,000 Derrick Henry in the last round of Dog Goal Drafts, by the way. 249 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,520 That feels like an interesting click. 250 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:43,280 So how? How? 251 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:47,600 Where does where does the orrans go in the kind of free he's he's 252 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:51,120 just free. And so that might be an example 253 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:55,000 of a packet of a pocket passer where they have huge week to 254 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,640 week and sometimes season to season volatility. 255 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,440 Where? If you when you want to when you 256 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:03,400 want to buy the pocket passes, you want it as cheap as 257 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,200 possible. So honestly, free Trevor 258 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:10,160 Lawrence sounds pretty enticing. Yeah, it's there's a lot of lot 259 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:14,120 of good freebies this week. So another Josh Dobbs? 260 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:18,200 One Josh Dobbs or Gino? Smith Oh yeah, definitely. 261 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:20,040 Dobbs. I I think Gino is like the 262 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:24,800 actually the comp for Dobbs this year except Dobbs is he runs 263 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:29,440 more and and. Yeah, it it's a pretty good 264 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:31,600 count, except you, you get the rushing upside. 265 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:36,000 OK, Now we're gonna get into the part of the chart where the guys 266 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,360 have had a little bit better actual performance. 267 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,080 I mean, like Josh Dobbs, Baker Mayfield. 268 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,080 I think you're still Dobbs going away, right? 269 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:49,120 Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think so. OK, How about Josh Dobbs or 270 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:52,160 Justin Herbert? Who? 271 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,920 And? I think, I think that should 272 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,320 just be Justin Herbert. Like, I agree. 273 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,040 I think it's still Herbert there, but it's like, isn't it 274 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,920 funny that that's kind of close? It's kind of close. 275 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:08,400 It's kind of close. If somebody told me that Josh 276 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,720 next week Josh Dobbs outscores Trevor Lawrence, I I I'm just 277 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:16,440 not shocked at all. Yeah, but yeah, you you have to 278 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:18,560 go with Lawrence there. I think just just with the towel 279 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:22,480 and then and pedigree, Yeah, I don't think we need to spend 280 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:25,160 very much time on the quarterback chart. 281 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:27,400 We can. We can move on to running backs 282 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:28,800 now. Yeah, I'm ready to move on as 283 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:32,080 well. Oh no. 284 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:40,440 As always I need to zoom out very specific 123% zoom and so 285 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,280 this is our running back snaps and usage chart. 286 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:48,000 And so we've got rush attempts, routes, pass blocking, and run 287 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:51,640 blocking. Those snaps as a percentage of 288 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:56,720 team overall plays and so obviously everybody understands 289 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:01,440 why rushing attempts are are useful with the with the routes. 290 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:05,640 The idea is that with all what this sort of very elite pass 291 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:09,960 catchers that it's sort of random when they get targeted 292 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:13,960 because it's not it's usually not the play design the the the 293 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,280 check down to the running back is sort of. 294 00:17:16,839 --> 00:17:20,839 They the the real play didn't work so now this is this is our 295 00:17:20,839 --> 00:17:24,079 backup plan and so you just want the guy out there running lots 296 00:17:24,079 --> 00:17:28,319 of routes because that gives you the potential for those high 297 00:17:28,319 --> 00:17:32,760 target games and pass blocking. Just useful to know who's who's 298 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,760 trusted as a pass blocker and and who sort of isn't. 299 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:42,080 And so I I have like I've been keeping an eye on Kenneth Walker 300 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,760 and Zach Charbonnet for the last couple weeks. 301 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:51,440 And I'm ready to call the split to be a true 5050 backfield 302 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:56,000 between, well, in terms of snaps anyway, it's a true 5050 303 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:59,800 backfield between Kenneth Walker and Chardonnay where Kenneth 304 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:05,680 Walker is clearly the preferred rusher but Chardonnay is the 305 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:09,160 preferred passing down back like it just hasn't been. 306 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:13,720 It's not close as to who's been used, running routes and and 307 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:17,480 pass blocking. Am am I missing something there? 308 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:19,840 No. It's really similar actually to 309 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:24,120 the Derek Henry and Taje Spears split where they're they're on 310 00:18:24,120 --> 00:18:26,480 the field about an equal amount of time. 311 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,600 I feel like spear I I actually would need to check the numbers 312 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,720 on this to verify, but I believe Spears even gets a little bit 313 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,840 more work. It's probably just cause over a 314 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,480 larger sample of weeks Spears has been involved in. 315 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:42,760 Chardonnay's involvement is a little bit more of a recent 316 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:48,160 development, but I I you know the Spears Henry Split is 317 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,080 similar to the Chardonnay Walker split. 318 00:18:52,120 --> 00:18:55,000 I think Charbonnay is like a little less valuable for fantasy 319 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,000 than Spears is just he's not getting a ton of touches, but he 320 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,320 is getting a good healthy amount of snaps. 321 00:19:01,360 --> 00:19:04,400 And so that's it's a little frustrating for Kenneth Walker. 322 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,840 I mean so much of Kenneth Walker's value is still in those 323 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,960 those home run type of type of runs right where he's breaking a 324 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,440 big one. I agree. 325 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:17,840 So I don't think it moves the needle so, so much for Kenneth 326 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,800 Walker in that it, you know maybe it's just making his floor 327 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:25,160 a little bit worse and Chardonnay. 328 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,680 I still don't feel like if I'm in a season long league like are 329 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,480 you are you ever considering starting Chardonnay like unless 330 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:36,840 you just have no other options And no, he's not startable. 331 00:19:37,120 --> 00:19:40,760 So just to put some context, over in in the last four games 332 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,440 and this is at the last four games where. 333 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:50,560 Chardonnay has been on the field 5056% of the time he's been on 334 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:55,320 the field, and he's got 6.3 expected points per game. 335 00:19:55,720 --> 00:20:01,080 So he he truly is getting a lot of sort of like calorie routes 336 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,600 and I'm not sure how much calories you burn on a running 337 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:08,600 back route, but it it they're they're mostly not useful snaps, 338 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,720 which it's more of a torn in kind of Walker's side than it 339 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,200 is. Chardonnay getting a real 340 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,760 workload is, is how I would see it. 341 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,440 Well, well, but I think that's that's the best way to summarize 342 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,560 that situation, which is really frustrating. 343 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,720 I was really excited about kind of Walker's start to the year, 344 00:20:28,120 --> 00:20:32,240 but seeing Chardonnay just just sort of command those those 345 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:37,280 routes and targets in a way that I think just Caps Walker from 346 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,920 delivering a true like sealing season for him. 347 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,920 It it it's frustrating, but is what it is. 348 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:51,720 Yeah, I this week made me think of the this is or we're going to 349 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,440 have a reference that like 6 people end up getting here. 350 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,040 But it made me think of the Michael Scott quote where he's 351 00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:00,840 like never under any circumstance for any reason do 352 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,640 anything to anybody ever. And I really thought that 353 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,280 applied to drafting running backs. 354 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:09,360 So never under any circumstance, for any reason, no matter where 355 00:21:09,360 --> 00:21:12,200 you are in the draft, no matter what your team composition is. 356 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,280 Draft of running back for any reason ever. 357 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,880 It is how this week a fantasy made me feel like why. 358 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,560 Why am I spending premium capital on a running back when 359 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,640 when there's just like I can get 30 carries from Devin 360 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,480 Singletary, baby and he's free, right? 361 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,920 Can the contingent upside there for him has obviously been 362 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:34,560 massive. Yeah. 363 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,840 Yeah, just it feel, and I mean like look at Rashad White as the 364 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:43,600 second best role in the NFL. And like, this guy was going in 365 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:47,480 the 9th, 10th round and like does Rashad, no sign of giving 366 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:48,440 it up. No. 367 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,560 Does he give you anything sexy week over week? 368 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,560 Hell no. He's going to get you 1520 369 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,560 carries on. Terrible efficiency. 370 00:21:55,560 --> 00:22:00,480 Look bad doing it, but he is very adept in the passing like 371 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,360 he can. He's relatively smooth in the 372 00:22:03,360 --> 00:22:05,320 passing game. He's not, you know, the best. 373 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:09,120 Things since sliced bread but he he's functional in the passing 374 00:22:09,120 --> 00:22:12,440 game and they've got no reason to go away from him and those 375 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:16,760 touches are super valuable. So I mean yeah Rashad Wide is 376 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:22,760 just like the safest floor play of all time in my opinion right. 377 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:27,720 And he is he he I don't he's definitely not a true double 378 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:33,280 double sort of player I I don't think anyway and but just 379 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,360 because it had the offense is, is is probably just a little bit 380 00:22:36,360 --> 00:22:43,440 too limited and I don't think he has like that big a command on 381 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,280 touches. He definitely has the command on 382 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:50,240 touches but he is truly important for them in the 383 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,120 receiving and passing game. So he is sort of game script 384 00:22:53,120 --> 00:22:55,320 proof for sure. Yeah. 385 00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,440 There's a couple guys up here in this top echelon of the chart 386 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,520 with like elite rules that have spots. 387 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,720 They they've been yucky backs over the last couple weeks where 388 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,000 like the public sentiment is gonna be down on them and it's 389 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,480 reflected in their ADP on underdog. 390 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:16,120 You know, I I definitely can see this in the market that people 391 00:23:16,120 --> 00:23:17,800 aren't excited to have these guys. 392 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,240 But that's both Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley. 393 00:23:21,360 --> 00:23:25,600 Both elite role like the Giants have nothing to do but put the 394 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:30,320 ball in Saquon Barkley's belly. And you know they're not. 395 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,440 They probably don't get into a lot of touchdown scoring 396 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,640 situations. But I mean, damn, if you want to 397 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,560 get 20 touches guaranteed, like look no further than Saquon 398 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,640 Barkley and and he goes pretty late. 399 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,120 I mean, you can. You can catch him sliding pretty 400 00:23:45,120 --> 00:23:48,320 far in some dog bowls, so. He's interesting for sure. 401 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:54,600 And then Josh Jacobs is like one of the clearest examples of I I 402 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:59,280 I feel like it's hard to even find spots like this in the NFL 403 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:04,320 to like point this out. But motivated versus unmotivated 404 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,000 players like you look at Josh Jacobs prior to the head 405 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:11,080 coaching change, it was like, God, this guy is like so 406 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,880 inefficient running the ball. He looks like he has for. 407 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,880 You know, his entire career outside of his super efficient 408 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,600 last season and then these last two weeks you get Josh Jacobs. 409 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:24,760 Like actually he cares again. And he's like all of a sudden 410 00:24:25,120 --> 00:24:27,480 running hard. And you know, they're they're 411 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,840 talking about they're, they're drawing up the run plays that he 412 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:32,120 likes. They're going in the meeting 413 00:24:32,120 --> 00:24:33,520 rooms every week and they're like, what? 414 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,400 What did you like? What didn't you like? 415 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:37,520 And they're keeping all the stuff he liked and getting rid 416 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:41,320 of the stuff he didn't. And it's like just that, having 417 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,240 that buy in from your players like. 418 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,200 It can really matter. So I'm I'm pretty interested in 419 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:49,880 a guy with a really good role that seems to Care now and might 420 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:54,280 you know, truly a a player with that dog in him where it could 421 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:55,440 matter. You know, we're not talking 422 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,400 about a Jerry Judy type right here. 423 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:05,000 So my first reaction was to ask you, should Josh Jacobs be 424 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:06,880 treated differently to Rashad White? 425 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:12,840 Oh, they're both pretty involved in the passing game. 426 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:16,040 They both have really, really good workloads. 427 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:22,480 Wow, that's a really good one. I I would say like Josh Jacobs. 428 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:29,360 I I think he's just a better talent and and so like, I'm a 429 00:25:29,360 --> 00:25:32,560 little bit more excited there. But I guess the offenses are 430 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,720 both like leave a lot to be desired. 431 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:43,480 Wow, that I'm sorry I I I didn't mean to put you on the spot. 432 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,280 There no that that's a that's a good call out. 433 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:50,200 I mean I have you know based on my dog bowl exposures I've been 434 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,520 drafted both of those guys pretty aggressively because they 435 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:57,560 both go late and I I think they both have right ceilings they 436 00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,080 both have a ceiling. Yeah. 437 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:05,960 So and I mean the way I I would think about it in my head is 438 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:10,160 that Josh Jacobs is like not sorry Rashad White is 95% Josh 439 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:18,160 Jacobs that it's I I I don't I guess maybe Josh Jacobs is a 440 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:23,320 better talent but I don't think he's like it is he truly like 441 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:30,040 how is he above average is he like much above average. 442 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,800 I I think he's close enough to average that I don't want to 443 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,840 call him like. I don't want to give him too 444 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,160 much of A like a a boost for talent stuff. 445 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,720 No, I I think you're right. It's like, if he is better, how 446 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,120 much does it even matter, you know, 'cause like, I think, I 447 00:26:44,120 --> 00:26:46,840 think running back's the kind of position where it really only 448 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,160 matters at the very extremes. So it's like, yeah, I've got 449 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,680 this guy who might be like AC level talent at the position in 450 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,800 Rashad White and this guy who's like AB level talent in Josh 451 00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:57,760 Jacobs. And it's like. 452 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,080 There's actually no difference to what happens on the, you 453 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,440 know, with their production from a guy from B all the way down to 454 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:08,640 D you know, you got to be minus. Yeah, you got to be an an F to 455 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,600 to have a matter of the negative or an A for it's a matter of the 456 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,960 positive. So that was a great comparison. 457 00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,120 I thank you for, for pointing that one out. 458 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,680 Oh yeah, yeah, enjoy. Enjoy talking about this stuff. 459 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,960 I think it's it's a little bit interesting, right that Alvin 460 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:29,280 Kamara is sort of like sliding down, sliding down the chart a 461 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,800 little bit. It it is he still caught was it 462 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:37,200 7 balls this last week was involved in the passing game But 463 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:42,160 it it does look like they're not as excited about his rushing 464 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,720 contribution. You know they, Jamal Williams 465 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,240 didn't really do anything. Taysom Hill didn't have a ton of 466 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,760 work this week, but in the past couple weeks it really looks 467 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,800 like they're they're more looking at Taysom Hill to do 468 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:56,280 the. The running game part of that of 469 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,840 that role and Kamara to be more of the passing game part and 470 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:03,440 Tayson still mixes in some for the passing game as well. 471 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,520 So yeah, Kamara is less attractive to, you know when he 472 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:11,000 like he was in, he was in the other stratosphere in terms of 473 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:15,440 like expected points and and like his snap rate and now his 474 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,240 expected point is still good. Last two weeks it's been around 475 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:22,520 1415, which is still good, still very good for where you drafted 476 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,960 him, but it's it's definitely down. 477 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,120 Yeah, it's it's coming back to Earth. 478 00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:32,160 And yeah, so let's let's think about Kamara with respect to a 479 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,560 couple guys that are near him. Here's an interesting one. 480 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:39,160 Do you want Alvin Kamara, who does nothing in the run game but 481 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,280 is super involved in the passing game? 482 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:45,400 Or do you want Tony Pollard, who's been terribly inefficient 483 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,160 and apparently is now phased out of the passing game, more or 484 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:50,920 less? Which guy do you prefer? 485 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:57,440 I'm like I I don't I want to pass because I'm so biased. 486 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,240 Like I don't know how I got so biased against Tony Pollard this 487 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:06,920 year and but I really AM. And I I I sort of think it is 488 00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:12,520 Alvin Kamara because at least at least he's doing stuff. 489 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,240 I I don't I haven't really seen it. 490 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:17,960 Has you watch all the Cowboys games? 491 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:19,520 Is is Tony Pollard doing anything? 492 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,720 Every he has like 3 or 4 plays a game where I'm like that's 493 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,960 that's the guy why is that why isn't that happening more. 494 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:32,200 But for just as you're you're getting the the bias Cowboys 495 00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:33,880 Homer takes. So here it comes. 496 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,440 But I mean I I truly do try to be objective when I am thinking 497 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,680 about the Cowboys because it's it's in the lens of thinking 498 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,720 about fantasy football and I don't want any bias to to fuck 499 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,600 up my process there and so. With respect to Tony, what I'm 500 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:52,120 what I'm seeing as a non ball knower is the running scheme 501 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,960 looks way shittier than last season. 502 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,680 Like there's a lot of Tony Pollard up the middle, you know 503 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,560 and it's like that's not really where he had success last year. 504 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,680 Like we had success getting Tony Pollard to the edge and using 505 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:11,400 his speed. So I saw a tweet and today that 506 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:15,560 was said Tony Pollard runs his percentage of runs that were in 507 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:21,920 between the the tackles in 20/22 was 42% something like that that 508 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:23,880 that's not exact, but it's we're in that neighborhood. 509 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:30,560 And then in 2023, it was like 58% runs between the tackles. 510 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,920 And that that almost seems like, I'm not, I'm probably not saying 511 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,720 this right, a Rorschach test where like some people are like, 512 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,320 OK, see, here it is. This is why he hasn't been 513 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,760 playing well. But then I see it and I'm like, 514 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:49,120 you know, that fit doesn't feel like different enough for it to 515 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:53,400 be causing this like dramatic decline in production and 516 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,480 efficiency. Yeah, I I mean, I think it's 517 00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:00,000 probably partially the runs between the tackles and outside 518 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,240 the tackle, but it's also that the runs outside the tackle. 519 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:07,280 And and this is where not being a ball knower really hinders my 520 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,840 analysis. But someone who is a ball knower 521 00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,320 let let me know like, are are you seeing what I'm seeing? 522 00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:16,080 It looks like the run, the run game in general for the Cowboys 523 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:21,360 is just like there's not these big the the line is no no worse 524 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,920 than it was last season. If anything, it's better. 525 00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,560 But last season there were lots of plays where it's like, Oh my 526 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:31,320 God, it's a 5 foot gap for Tony Pollard to run through. 527 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,400 There's one defender that can make a play on him and the 528 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,840 whole. The whole play hinges on who 529 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:38,720 wins. Tony Pollard or a linebacker. 530 00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,560 It's just a 1V1. If Tony wins, it's a 40 Yard 531 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:43,920 House call. If the linebacker wins, he still 532 00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:47,360 gashed him for seven yards. You know, and you saw those all 533 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,480 the time last season and that's how he ended up so efficient. 534 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,000 I I see those like. May not even once a game. 535 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,160 Like if I see one of those, I'm like, Oh my God, that looks like 536 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,440 last season, Tony Pollard, like where he's got one guy to beat. 537 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:05,240 Oh man, just that shoestring tackle saved a big Tony Pollard 538 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,640 touchdown. But I felt like we got that all 539 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,120 the time last season and we're really not seeing it now. 540 00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:15,480 But that's. Yeah, so here's a here's a stop 541 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,920 for you. Tony Pollard in 2023 is Jared 542 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:25,640 3-4. Contact 1.5 but his but 2022 is 543 00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:32,400 the IP four of contact 1.5 where he made a difference last year 544 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,880 and despite and and I I always thought the yard before 545 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,920 contacting being being low for Pollard was like sort of a a 546 00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:44,280 mini red flag because those small speedy guys and I know 547 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:48,520 he's not that small and but he he has been like this kind of 548 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,280 speed guy their yards before contact numbers are supposed to 549 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:56,120 be good because one of the advantages of being fast is that 550 00:32:56,120 --> 00:33:00,120 you're up the field before somebody can make a play and his 551 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:04,000 where he got his where he got his production was yards after 552 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:08,240 contact stuff and it was true breaking tackles like he had a 553 00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:16,920 he had a 22% evasion rate where is this year is is evasion rate 554 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:22,920 is just 10% and his yard's out to contact is went from 3.5 to 555 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:28,720 2.4 so maybe maybe that's just too much being in there but that 556 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:32,360 that truly to me points to like a player just playing worse. 557 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,520 Yeah, I I certainly, I don't think it's outside the realm of 558 00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,600 possibility that Tony Pollard is playing worse in 2023 than he is 559 00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,320 in 2022. What I would say to add a little 560 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,840 context to the broken tackle thing is not all evaded tackles 561 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,400 are created equal right? Like. 562 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,400 Last season there were lots of evaded tackles that Tony Pollard 563 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,920 registered where it was like a dude had an arm on him. 564 00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,480 And that's, you know, and it's like he's in open space. 565 00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,520 Yeah, and that's a Tony Pollard. House call. 566 00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,000 And then this season it's like, yeah, he's evading less, but 567 00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:05,120 it's like because the dude squared up on him, like there's 568 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,400 there's a linebacker in the hole and he's not evading that where. 569 00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:10,639 Well, that's also. I think that's partly running 570 00:34:10,639 --> 00:34:13,000 back skill, though where certainly think. 571 00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:16,080 It could be partially running back skill, like being that, 572 00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:20,480 being fast at the handoff, hitting the right hole like or 573 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:22,960 so, not hitting not not that he's hitting the wrong hole, but 574 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:26,600 being fast at the handoff and getting down the field before 575 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:30,000 somebody hasn't had a chance to take a step like that, that I 576 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,880 think that's a really important part of the game, 100%. 577 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:39,159 And so to bring it. To this week. 578 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:43,520 What what are your thoughts on Tony Pollard against a really 579 00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,719 bad Carolina run defense in a game where the Cowboys are going 580 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,679 to be heavily favored. Is this are are we finally I 581 00:34:50,679 --> 00:34:53,800 mean I've heard a lot of it's do or die week for Tony Pollard 582 00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,120 this season. Is this the real do or die? 583 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,440 Are you just out are you not You're not riding the the Tony 584 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:04,960 train again and well I I guess I should self admit that I was 585 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:12,640 never riding the the Tony train and but let's see so well I 586 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:17,520 guess part of the question is how how much snaps is he losing 587 00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:25,160 and so what's he he's he's on the he's still on the field 67% 588 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:29,040 of the time since if you look at since week 7. 589 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:38,040 And that compares to 69%. So his his the last four weeks 590 00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:44,680 are pretty in line with his. His snap percentage in in, in 591 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,920 for the the last four weeks is pretty similar to the snap 592 00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:52,640 percentage for the full year and then his. 593 00:35:54,920 --> 00:36:01,400 Last game he was about 10% lower than than the full season. 594 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:06,720 So I guess I have AII do have a hard time buying the the lower 595 00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:10,440 snack percentage. What was was, what's his name, 596 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:15,600 Rico Dowdell, And how much of that was a garbage time and how 597 00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:18,160 much of that is? Dowdle Dowdle seemed a little 598 00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:22,400 bit more involved, even even before garbage time. 599 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:23,880 Yeah, but. I don't. 600 00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:25,480 I don't know how much of that is. 601 00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:29,760 Just like it didn't need to be garbage Time for them to kind of 602 00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,680 feel secure in the game. I yeah, it's. 603 00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,600 I mean, they're playing the Giants, so it's a tough one, 604 00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,240 right? And when was there bye week, 605 00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:42,120 when was the week seven week 7. So we're well past the bye. 606 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:45,800 Yeah. I mean there can be week to week 607 00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,720 fluctuations that we try to get in the heads of these NFL 608 00:36:48,720 --> 00:36:53,480 coaches and and we never will. So Tim, I I'm going to call, I I 609 00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:57,240 personally will call the the snap difference in a one week 610 00:36:57,240 --> 00:36:59,960 operation. So I would say he still has the 611 00:36:59,960 --> 00:37:04,160 role but. Me personally, I'm highly 612 00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:05,880 suspicious that he has lost a step. 613 00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:12,040 To me, the available data does suggest that he he's lost a step 614 00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,160 and with the way running back age works where they just hit a 615 00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:21,880 Cliff I I think. I I think that's where I'm at, 616 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,720 where I I don't want to play a dusty running back unless I 617 00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:29,160 think I can. Unless I think a dusty running 618 00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:33,480 back upside is is useful to me. I don't. 619 00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,040 I don't. I don't think it is it in the in 620 00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:37,480 the dog bowl. I'm not sure though. 621 00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,120 This I'll I'll tell you what. I wrote. 622 00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:43,720 So I I like, go over. I have some projections that I 623 00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:48,280 use and I aggregate and then make a make kind of my look at 624 00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:49,840 what I'm going to be doing this week. 625 00:37:50,240 --> 00:37:52,920 And I looked at where Tony Pollard came out on my 626 00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:56,080 projections and where he's being drafted, and I just wrote some 627 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,240 notes on how I was wanting to attack it before I dove into 628 00:37:59,240 --> 00:38:01,080 any. And my note on Tony Pollard was? 629 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,680 Am I really doing the Tony Pollard thing again? 630 00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:08,160 So that that tells you where I'm at on him this week, right? 631 00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:12,520 I think his his for most of the year if not all of it. 632 00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:20,040 His projection will be better done being free in the dog bowl 633 00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:23,960 would suggest, yeah, he's. He's certainly not free this 634 00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,400 week, so it's like that's even more reason to OK. 635 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:30,680 Scared. I mean I I think that people are 636 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,040 are doing the the one last hurrah for Tony Pollard this 637 00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:37,280 week kind of thing. So, I mean, let me put it 638 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:41,000 another way, I think I'd prefer Aaron Jones over Tony Pollard. 639 00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:42,480 I I would as well. I have. 640 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:47,120 Aaron Jones pretty high this week not to just. 641 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,800 Give away all. My alpha right away I I think I 642 00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,640 have Aaron Jones as like the 4th or 5th best running back on the 643 00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:56,600 slate. Make makes sense. 644 00:38:56,600 --> 00:39:00,520 I I think he he's he's an older player he's still still clearly 645 00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,000 got the juice and you need to stay. 646 00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:06,560 You need to stay away from the injuries and to to get that 647 00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,120 production from him. But still. 648 00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,520 Clearly performing, I got AI Got an interesting. 649 00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:16,160 One older player, a little bit Hanford by injury. 650 00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:20,960 How do we feel about Austin Eckler this week, especially 651 00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,720 with? I I really look at Eckler and 652 00:39:23,720 --> 00:39:27,640 Keenan Allen's production as pretty negatively correlated to 653 00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:29,960 each other, right. When when you get Eckler out, 654 00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:33,200 Keenan really feasts when Keenan's out, Eckler really 655 00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,360 takes a lot of that underneath type stuff. 656 00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:40,000 So Keenan 's a little. Banged up this week what do you 657 00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:46,680 what do you think about Eckler here I think even even last week 658 00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:51,480 with the with the sort of good point production he he's still 659 00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:56,360 not actually playing that well. He is his expected point he he's 660 00:39:56,360 --> 00:40:00,600 he had a monster workload in week 10 and but for someone 661 00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:05,480 who's been struggling coming off the injury at at -6 1/2 fantasy 662 00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:10,440 points underrespected and to me that that's still a little bit 663 00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,960 of a concern that he's not quite there after the injury. 664 00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:16,920 But then, on the other hand, the fact that he's getting a monster 665 00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:19,960 workload. The the Chargers know better 666 00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,320 down. Way better than me looking at 667 00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:25,840 week to week sort of numbers, whether he's healthy or not. 668 00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:29,920 So. I think that I I, I think I'm 669 00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:34,120 more ready to buy the signal of Austin Eckler and getting the 670 00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:37,360 monster workload than the inefficiency. 671 00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:42,520 So to me. I'm like 90 percent sure that 672 00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:46,400 you should project Eckler the way you did in week one this 673 00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:48,520 year or this week that that that. 674 00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:49,760 I think that that's where I'm at. 675 00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:54,080 Note to self. Don't fade Eckler in volleyball 676 00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:59,600 this week I I've got another guy that I just want to make sure 677 00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:03,840 didn't go under the radar for people that weren't masochists 678 00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:07,560 like myself and woke up at, you know, 6:30 AM to watch the 679 00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,880 Patriots and Colts game in Germany. 680 00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,880 But. I mean, if you're not past the 681 00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:17,920 trade deadline in your leagues, please go try and get Jonathan 682 00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,480 Taylor. The, like the Zach Moss 683 00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:24,480 experiment is over. They they basically like gave it 684 00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:28,800 all to Taylor and he was against a pretty good Patriots run 685 00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,440 defense. So he didn't, you know explode 686 00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,000 out-of-the-box score or anything. 687 00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:37,920 But I believe he got 23. Carries and a couple couple 688 00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:41,040 targets. So yeah, like just truly elite 689 00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,960 workload. He had 4343 percent of the team 690 00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:49,440 snaps were rushes to Jonathan Taylor and then 41% of those 691 00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:55,160 snaps he was running a route so pretty good it doesn't get that. 692 00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:57,840 That's the CMC right at the top of the chart. 693 00:41:58,240 --> 00:42:00,840 It it it literally doesn't get better any better than that. 694 00:42:01,240 --> 00:42:05,160 Like he is an old school workhorse running back right 695 00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:07,160 now. Or was it week 10? 696 00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:09,080 So so. Fantasy. 697 00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:11,360 Playoffs, fantasy playoffs are coming. 698 00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:16,240 Let's let's throw a couple of these like really crazy role 699 00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:20,720 mixed with great talent guys here and I want you to rank them 700 00:42:20,720 --> 00:42:23,080 for me. I mean, I think it's pretty 701 00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:26,920 clear CMC is going away as #1, so let's let's keep him out of 702 00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:31,440 the equation, but but let's. Go Austin Eckler, who you're 703 00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:34,920 saying is you you're thinking back to to full strength here. 704 00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:41,080 The let's go Jonathan Taylor and then let's throw an ETN in 705 00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:43,120 there. And then last just to keep it 706 00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:45,280 interesting, we'll we'll mix in Brice Hall. 707 00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:55,680 So how do you got those 40? Oh and I think, I think I'm 708 00:42:57,720 --> 00:43:01,120 that's really difficult. I think I'm between 2:00 and 709 00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:04,920 3:00. I'm really close between Eckler 710 00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:12,480 and JT and part of that like if if I was 100% sure it was Week 1 711 00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:17,480 projection for Eckler, he's like, right. 712 00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:23,600 I think he he's still decidedly ahead of JT and but. 713 00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:29,240 Give I I guess given that I'm not quite I I I I don't think we 714 00:43:29,240 --> 00:43:31,840 can still be quite sure that he is. 715 00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:38,360 And the other thing that I think is important is that the with 716 00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:42,800 the with the you still have a sort of pocket passer for the 717 00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:46,400 Colts. So with him getting those rush 718 00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:50,640 attempts and then running those routes then that is that that's 719 00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:54,280 actually something that I don't think JT has experienced a lot 720 00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:58,240 in his career. So to me, you actually do have 721 00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:04,120 outcomes there to to get the true like Smash Hammer upside. 722 00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:10,000 And I mean, I'm still I'm, I'm, I'm being a little bit wishy 723 00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,120 washy. I'm still really close between 724 00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:18,160 that and Eckler where it's like a great quarterback with a very 725 00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:23,600 fantasy friendly talent. In Eckler, where he breaks off 726 00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,720 the big runs, he gets a lot of targets. 727 00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:30,000 He does a lot with his targets and. 728 00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:36,760 I I'm honestly, I I think that's I I don't think I can pick after 729 00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:41,720 that. I think I'm having a hard and 730 00:44:41,720 --> 00:44:45,040 then I have a hard time between what's his name. 731 00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,120 Who's the Who's the Jaguar ETN and Bruce. 732 00:44:49,720 --> 00:44:55,600 ETN and Bruce. Yeah, where Bruce is definitely 733 00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,480 the better talent. He's clearly all the way back 734 00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:01,880 from the ACL surgery. But The Jets offense is. 735 00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:05,320 We've just seen it in enough games now where you have that 736 00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,320 risk, where the offense just tanks. 737 00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:11,640 Bruce, where even though he's clearly capable of of doing 738 00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:15,520 those large breakaway runs that give you monster scores. 739 00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:19,880 That and he's, I think he's, he's still better at that than 740 00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:23,320 ETN. But ETN has. 741 00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:32,160 ETN does play for a better offense and I think it's that's 742 00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:33,640 another one where it's really close. 743 00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,800 And then who's the other guy, the lost guy? 744 00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:40,240 Those are those are it so? So just to to summarize, you'd 745 00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:47,680 you'd say CMC Tier then you've got Eckler, Taylor Tier and then 746 00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:51,080 you've got Etienne, Breece and that's kind of the the top. 747 00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:54,360 Yeah, I think that I took a long time to get there to like a 748 00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:57,960 pretty simple answer. But yeah, I think that 749 00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:00,640 summarizes are pretty good. I I think it's I think. 750 00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,000 The people like to to hear you talk through it and think 751 00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:06,000 through it. So I I certainly was was glad to 752 00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,840 hear you do that. But I believe that's everything 753 00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,440 I wanted to look at on this first running back chart. 754 00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:13,600 Did you have anyone else or should we move to the backups? 755 00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:15,960 Yeah, I I I think that's a good call. 756 00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:20,000 Let's move on. And so as you said, it's the 757 00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:25,120 same chart except we're dealing with backups here and you know 758 00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:29,360 that I guess that the the big question with playoffs 759 00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:36,040 approaching and sort of like trade deadline stuff and I know 760 00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:41,040 FFEC waiver deadline is coming up, I think Ty Chandler is like 761 00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,840 the story of this chart, right Hundred 100%. 762 00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,680 Yeah, it's like if you got anything left in the in the fab 763 00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:49,320 budget, you can just, you know, if you're in a league where you 764 00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,800 got to like do the defense juggling in the playoffs or 765 00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:54,320 like. Like, not FFPC. 766 00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:57,520 Where waivers close in FFPC. It's basically spend all your 767 00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:02,000 remaining budget on Ty Chandler is what I would be doing and 768 00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:06,160 then I agree for like home. Leagues where you got defense, 769 00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:08,200 you might be trying to block your opponent from picking up a 770 00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:11,800 flex or something like that in the in the playoffs, you know 771 00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:13,560 leave yourself a couple bucks to do that. 772 00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:19,160 But like Ty Chandler is, is such a massive priority because. 773 00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:23,400 The outcome where he is the Vikings lead running back for 774 00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:25,600 the rest of the season is relatively thin. 775 00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,520 You know you got a decent chance that it's it's this week. 776 00:47:28,520 --> 00:47:33,920 He's that because of the concussion for Alexander 777 00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,520 Madison. But there's a chance that he 778 00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:39,680 flashes enough this week and like, earns more and and just 779 00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:41,360 like. You know, they they clearly 780 00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:44,400 weren't happy with just Madison. They brought in Acres, right? 781 00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:46,040 Like they're looking for something else. 782 00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:49,560 And Ty Chandler got work early in the game, looked good. 783 00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,960 He's looked good on the limited opportunities he's had this 784 00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:54,960 season. So yeah, very, very much. 785 00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:59,120 Ty Chandler is the, the highlight of this chart. 786 00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,000 I'm glad. I'm glad you put it so strongly 787 00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:08,320 and because I think it's it's sort of worth honing in on like 788 00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:12,760 the idea that you can potentially get a somebody who 789 00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:16,360 can win a job the way that Ty Chandler could hear this late in 790 00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:18,920 the year before week 11 like that. 791 00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:23,200 That's just it just it doesn't happen that often there's a 792 00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:26,560 scarcity there. So even with this sort of 793 00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:30,880 downside risk that he doesn't get there, the fact that you 794 00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:35,400 have that upside makes them so, so valuable because because of 795 00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,840 the scarcity, yeah, it's just it. 796 00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,200 It's too many. Boxes that he checks right now 797 00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:42,760 too for, for like things that we want right. 798 00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:46,880 It's like on a good offense they're past first he is 799 00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:49,680 explosive. He has breakaway play potential. 800 00:48:49,720 --> 00:48:54,200 You know in his outcomes thin competition ahead of him like 801 00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:57,760 there. It's like all all systems go for 802 00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:00,520 like the type of guy that we should be targeting and it 803 00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:03,760 doesn't matter that he's not. He's not going to hit, you know, 804 00:49:03,760 --> 00:49:06,720 like 8090% of the time it just doesn't work out. 805 00:49:06,720 --> 00:49:10,280 And this, this specific season, this universe, this reality we 806 00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:12,920 live in, it's probably 1 where the Ty Chandler thing doesn't 807 00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,320 work out. But the small amount of times 808 00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:19,720 when it does, it's such a large gain for you that you'd make 809 00:49:19,720 --> 00:49:21,840 that bet. It's it's purely an expected 810 00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:24,720 value type of thing. If that makes sense, right? 811 00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:29,240 And I think the idea that and the Vikings are just going to go 812 00:49:29,240 --> 00:49:33,600 back to to bell cow Alexander Madison like I I I don't buy 813 00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,320 that at all. Like not at all. 814 00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:39,440 So I think that even in your like sort of like downside case, 815 00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:42,480 I still think you're looking at a pretty good shot at like a 816 00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:47,080 6040 with Titanic being the 40 and this being a valuable 817 00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:50,960 offense where you talk about the haves and the have not like your 818 00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:58,000 downside case being like a 30 to to 40% guy in 1/2 offense that 819 00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:01,760 that's not bad like for a zero, I I think that's a zero or B 820 00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:04,440 start, right? Yeah, hundred 100%. 821 00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:09,600 I know that we have an FFPC team that yeah, Ty, Ty Chandler would 822 00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:15,200 be our best running back, right? And so yeah that definitely feel 823 00:50:15,240 --> 00:50:20,720 feel strongly about that and I I I think that that's more of a a 824 00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:24,560 game theory like call than than a sort of stack call like 825 00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:27,680 everybody knows that he was much more involved Last week he 826 00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:31,640 played well last week with Madison he played he played he 827 00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:36,320 he got the he got the goal line touchdown before Madison had the 828 00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:38,920 concussion and then he played more because of the concussion. 829 00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:42,120 But it it. It's definitely more of a game 830 00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:47,160 to recall than than a sat call. But still want want to emphasize 831 00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:48,960 it? Yeah. 832 00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:52,640 Guys, other guys that I wanted to run through here really 833 00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:56,800 quick, just like providing an update on Raven's backfield 834 00:50:56,800 --> 00:51:00,440 watch. Keaton Mitchell's like doing the 835 00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:04,960 things that he needs to do to you know, unseat Justice Hill. 836 00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:09,360 Yeah, but looking like the most likely outcome here is 837 00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:14,160 disgusting 3 headed monster type backfield where you've got an 838 00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:16,360 electric player in Keaton Mitchell that could deliver a 839 00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:18,400 splash play for you and make him start. 840 00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:21,880 Well, I don't think the ceiling for Keaton Mitchell in any given 841 00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,960 week is ever going to get to anything that's ridiculously 842 00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:28,760 high just because the opportunity is going to be so 843 00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:31,280 stymied by this three headed monster. 844 00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:34,400 And the fact that you have Lamar that could hypothetically take 845 00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:37,040 some brushing touchdowns or God forbid throw for some passing 846 00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:39,280 touchdowns if things break his way. 847 00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:42,560 But. I I think the most likely 848 00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:46,240 outcome is that all these guys, Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell, 849 00:51:46,240 --> 00:51:49,080 Justice Hill, get naked. I mean, Justice Hill's looking 850 00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:52,640 pretty naked. He yeah, it's not looking good 851 00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,840 for my boy. It's just, yeah, Keaton 852 00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:59,480 Mitchell's like, slightly smaller but more explosive. 853 00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,960 Justice Hill and. Yeah, I mean it's not like 854 00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:05,800 Justice Hill is such a large back anyway that that's going to 855 00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,080 keep keeping Mitchell off the field, that's they've got Gus 856 00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:10,040 Edwards to do big back kind of thing. 857 00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:13,680 So yeah, overall just quick update on the Ravens. 858 00:52:13,720 --> 00:52:16,720 The other spot that I wanted to touch on was just David 859 00:52:16,720 --> 00:52:19,800 Montgomery showing up on this chart just because he's coming 860 00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:21,840 back from injury and had a couple weeks. 861 00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:24,800 You know, this is the rolling four week sample here for these 862 00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,480 guys. Just a quick thing I wanted to 863 00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:30,640 say about the Lions backfield is like in season long you start 864 00:52:30,720 --> 00:52:32,400 your life. If you have a Lions running back 865 00:52:32,400 --> 00:52:34,560 on your team, it is always getting started. 866 00:52:34,640 --> 00:52:39,120 The that team will score so many rushing touchdowns it doesn't 867 00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,000 matter. You just play, You play. 868 00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:44,040 If you had both, you'd play both every week. 869 00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:48,320 You you'd never decide like, oh, do I want to bench Gibbs and 870 00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:50,160 play Montgomery? Do I want to bench Montgomery 871 00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:52,080 and play Gibbs? If you had both, you'd play 872 00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:53,760 both. And you will always play 873 00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:56,000 whichever one you have on your roster. 874 00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:59,000 It's just too good of an offense, too too good of a 875 00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:02,360 scheme, like they want to give their running backs the Reds or 876 00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:05,480 the Green Zone opportunities. So it's just like a dream. 877 00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:10,320 And the other thing is, like, this was so painfully obvious 878 00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:13,200 during draft season. Like I drafted a good amount of 879 00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:15,360 David Montgomery, drafted a good amount of Gibbs. 880 00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,520 But I should have been treating this backfield just like I 881 00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:22,120 treated the Dolphins backfield, where it's like every draft I 882 00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:26,240 get one of these running backs because it's it's just so 883 00:53:26,240 --> 00:53:29,920 clearly like the best rushing offence in the league. 884 00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:32,320 That offensive line is elite. Elite. 885 00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:37,160 And they love to run it like, but their offense is good too. 886 00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:38,880 It's like not one of these love to run it. 887 00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:41,280 Teams like the Falcons where it's like we love to run it and 888 00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:43,520 the offense sucks. It's like, no, we love to run it 889 00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:47,360 and the offense is awesome. So just had to make my quick 890 00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:50,920 Lions blurb there. No good, good call. 891 00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,160 Do not forget about David Montgomery. 892 00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:56,400 Saw a note here from historical anomalies. 893 00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:58,640 Not sure we do. We highlight these comments 894 00:53:58,640 --> 00:54:00,320 enough. So want to make sure I'm doing 895 00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:03,480 it and I think this is true. Ty did have a touch. 896 00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:07,520 Another touchdown called back in a flag, which hopefully that 897 00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,440 makes them more retainable this week on waiver pickups. 898 00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:14,320 Yeah. Just that that triggered 899 00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:17,520 something in my brain to go back to, you know, touchdown call 900 00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:19,120 back or narrow miss. Touchdown. 901 00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:23,080 Kyler and Marquis Brown had a a narrow miss that they almost 902 00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:24,960 hooked up on for a deep touchdown bomb. 903 00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:28,960 And I think if that happens, you see, you know, Marquis Brown and 904 00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:32,360 Kyler being viewed a lot more favorably in the market this 905 00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:36,440 week. So many people like Trey McBride 906 00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:38,960 is projecting as the best tight end this week. 907 00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:42,880 Which I think is valid. He's been a crusher and we'll 908 00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:45,840 we'll get to him. But I think there's more 909 00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:49,640 fragility in that projection than people are are willing to 910 00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:52,960 admit and they're already they're crowning Trey McBride 911 00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:56,720 and just saying like, yeah and and you know Hollywood's an 912 00:54:56,720 --> 00:55:00,840 afterthought when I I think that they're yeah, we'll we'll get 913 00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:02,440 into it more when we talk about McBride. 914 00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:06,480 But anyway, yeah, interesting teaser. 915 00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:11,280 And but yeah, let's let I I think it's time to move on on 916 00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:18,320 from this chart. And so any anybody Imam was a. 917 00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:21,720 Bit annoyed that that we have two charts talking about running 918 00:55:21,720 --> 00:55:23,800 backs and then we have two more charts talking about running 919 00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:25,760 backs. Feels like a lot of running. 920 00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:29,360 Back charts, yeah. And and then want to make sure I 921 00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:32,760 I guess I want to make sure that where we touch on stuff here 922 00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:36,120 it's it's stuff that it makes more sense in the context of 923 00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:39,120 these charts than sort of rehashing points we've already 924 00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:43,360 had any of those sort of things sticking out to you where? 925 00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:48,280 Yeah, quick. Just just want to say this so I 926 00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:51,560 remember it we're we're gonna show the people how the sausage 927 00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:54,480 is made live on air here. What do you think about a chart 928 00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:57,280 update idea here? Might not be able to get to it 929 00:55:57,320 --> 00:56:00,280 before. Anyway, Chart update, end of the 930 00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,040 year. I combined the last two charts 931 00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:05,560 into this. And for the bubbles, right now I 932 00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:08,360 just have them filled with an orbit of random color to make it 933 00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:10,200 readable That guys are different colors. 934 00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:14,080 What if instead I filled them? They're all like a each bubble 935 00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:16,160 is a pie chart. It's still got the size 936 00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:19,360 reference thing for fantasy points over expected, but I have 937 00:56:19,360 --> 00:56:23,080 like Gray or black for snaps, they're not on the field. 938 00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:26,480 And then those same colors of green and gold for the passing 939 00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:28,880 and rushing snaps. And so we've got these pie 940 00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:31,800 charts or or kind of like Pac-Man looking charts where the 941 00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:34,800 larger the black or the the bad color is when they're not on the 942 00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:38,760 field then we've got those same. I don't know it might be too big 943 00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:43,480 bosses. I actually I liked I I really 944 00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:47,120 like the idea of combining the two two charts my and and my top 945 00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:52,480 would actually be if we combine this chart with a with a table 946 00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:57,840 on expected points and fantasy points over expected and that 947 00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:01,920 that way you can see where and and maybe you can have like if 948 00:57:01,920 --> 00:57:05,920 you want you can have like a table of rushing expected 949 00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:11,800 points, receiving expected points then then like a fancy 950 00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:15,080 points over expected. So that way, I think that way 951 00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:19,480 you truly combine it all into one chart we we definitely have. 952 00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:23,080 Some food for thought there, but I I needed to to say that we'll 953 00:57:23,080 --> 00:57:25,520 we'll go back and listen to this part of the broadcast and figure 954 00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:27,040 out how we're going to doctor these charts up. 955 00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:33,720 But looking at the efficiency chart here there we we've talked 956 00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:36,840 about this in that you know these charts are stabilizing 957 00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:39,640 more of course these are the the rolling four week charts. 958 00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:43,840 So like for example, you can see Javante Williams Really. 959 00:57:44,200 --> 00:57:46,880 Catching some steam here and moving up into that 15 to 20 960 00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:49,600 expected fantasy point and rightfully so. 961 00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:52,600 When you look at his role that he had against the Bills last 962 00:57:52,600 --> 00:57:57,920 night like that was if you were a javante drafter or you got 963 00:57:57,920 --> 00:58:01,080 javante on your season long team, you're really happy with 964 00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:03,520 this development. It looks like a really strong 965 00:58:03,520 --> 00:58:07,960 role for him and he looks good. So that's that's pretty 966 00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:10,360 exciting. That was probably the biggest 967 00:58:10,360 --> 00:58:15,240 one that I wanted to call out. The the Gibbs stuff is going to 968 00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:18,440 be interesting. I I want to see more data points 969 00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:22,640 with Montgomery back to see cause 'cause Gibbs got, you 970 00:58:22,640 --> 00:58:24,440 know, those two touchdowns this week. 971 00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:29,560 One of them was in a spot where like I think a lot of the time 972 00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:33,080 in that scenario, that touchdown goes to Montgomery instead. 973 00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:36,600 But it's felt like the offense with the the team was trying to 974 00:58:36,600 --> 00:58:39,240 reward him for. He had a big play that looked 975 00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:42,560 like he broke the plane. He just barely didn't get in and 976 00:58:42,560 --> 00:58:45,240 they kept him on the field to get the touchdown. 977 00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:48,400 Where I feel like a lot of the times when it's like, oh, we're 978 00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:51,480 at the one yard line where the Lions, it's like, yeah, and 979 00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:53,760 David Montgomery's going to come in and we're going to run four 980 00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:57,360 times, you know, so right. I'm I'm not sure if he ran a 981 00:58:57,360 --> 00:58:59,760 little hot and like he got a situation. 982 00:59:01,120 --> 00:59:03,920 How? How sticky is it that Jamir was 983 00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:06,400 getting that sort of go line touch right that's. 984 00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:07,880 Thank. You for saying what I was trying 985 00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:09,920 to say in a much more concise way. 986 00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:12,760 No, no. We're all we're all trying to 987 00:59:12,760 --> 00:59:17,080 make it work and other. So other guys, oh, sorry. 988 00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:18,720 Did you have anything to add there? 989 00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:24,960 Yeah I I I think that it it it truly bears waiting and and and 990 00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:28,120 watching for another week to see if that split holds up. 991 00:59:28,800 --> 00:59:32,920 I I mean I'm still sort of holding on to my prior that they 992 00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:40,240 want David Montgomery to be the main guy and and and and I'm I'm 993 00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:43,440 guessing I'm speculating that the injury and coming off the 994 00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:49,120 injury was a big part of the the split where or Gibbs was getting 995 00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:54,480 the majority of the snaps and and the touches but definitely 996 00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:58,960 interesting that it happened and and and truly worth watching to 997 00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:02,560 see if it continues and I think if we get another game of that 998 01:00:03,000 --> 01:00:05,600 then it then it it's just Gibbs season. 999 01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:10,360 Yeah, that that's a good. Call KZ had a a comment that I 1000 01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:13,280 want to clarify for people 'cause these charts are not 1001 01:00:13,280 --> 01:00:16,240 terribly intuitive with how we have them broken up these 1002 01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:19,240 running back efficiency charts and expected points. 1003 01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:23,440 We split them into two charts because the sheer number of data 1004 01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:27,040 points is so much that. It would get really crowded if I 1005 01:00:27,040 --> 01:00:30,280 combined them all. And so Rashad White is not on 1006 01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:32,320 this first chart, he's on the second chart. 1007 01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:34,760 The charts are just split kind of arbitrarily. 1008 01:00:34,760 --> 01:00:37,760 It's evens and odds where I've ranked all the players based on 1009 01:00:37,760 --> 01:00:41,960 expected fantasy points and said the guys who are ranked 13579, 1010 01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:45,120 etcetera, The odds, those all go on one chart, the guys who are 1011 01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:47,880 the evens go on another chart. It's just so the charts are a 1012 01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:50,800 little bit more readable, but we'll touch on the Rashad White 1013 01:00:50,800 --> 01:00:52,880 Josh Jacobs discussion in a second. 1014 01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:56,240 We don't have a ton that we need to stay on this chart for. 1015 01:00:56,240 --> 01:01:00,520 There's two quick guys I want to hit on #1 is Breece Hall. 1016 01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:05,000 With the development of Michael Carter getting cut from the team 1017 01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:09,440 and being the thorn in the side for Breece for the passing down, 1018 01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:13,680 long down and distance back. I think that's a really bullish 1019 01:01:13,680 --> 01:01:15,560 sign. You did see Dalvin Cook more 1020 01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:19,320 involved in this most recent game, and Dalvin was. 1021 01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:22,360 Hyped Dalv and he was running hard man. 1022 01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:26,040 I I honestly think that like for getting the most out of the 1023 01:01:26,040 --> 01:01:29,240 player like was it smart to give Dalvin the contract they gave 1024 01:01:29,240 --> 01:01:29,960 him? Hell no. 1025 01:01:29,960 --> 01:01:31,440 Has he been good? Hell no. 1026 01:01:31,680 --> 01:01:35,240 But this last game, like, you know, we're, we're getting. 1027 01:01:35,240 --> 01:01:38,240 Out of the the analytics world and into the narrative world 1028 01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:40,760 here a little bit. But like, the dude was trying 1029 01:01:40,760 --> 01:01:43,280 hard. You could tell like he had a he 1030 01:01:43,280 --> 01:01:46,520 ran hard on a run, got a good gain and he got up and he was 1031 01:01:46,520 --> 01:01:49,080 like yelling at the bench. Like dude is fired up. 1032 01:01:49,560 --> 01:01:52,120 He's he's clearly a competitor like he wants to play. 1033 01:01:52,120 --> 01:01:55,160 He's not out there just to collect the check like he he 1034 01:01:55,160 --> 01:01:59,560 cares still, you know and so that as as silly as that is, it 1035 01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:03,120 does matter to this stuff like it matters to the coaches 1036 01:02:03,120 --> 01:02:04,800 certainly. So I don't think we're going to 1037 01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:08,240 see, oh Michael Carter gone Breece Hall 100% of snaps. 1038 01:02:08,440 --> 01:02:10,680 Now you're just going to be frustrated at the Dalvin Cook 1039 01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:15,440 usage, but I do think that there is a little bit of runway here 1040 01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:18,240 for Breece to earn more of that passing game work. 1041 01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:23,440 And then the other the other two guys are right on that 10 to 15 1042 01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:25,520 fantasy point border. They're both right about 10 1043 01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:28,680 expected fantasy points backs and that's Jalen Warren and 1044 01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:31,160 Brian Robinson. Brian Robinson with a couple 1045 01:02:31,160 --> 01:02:35,080 long breakaway, you know receptions this last week. 1046 01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:40,480 Don't think that's necessarily repeatable, but yeah, it's just 1047 01:02:40,480 --> 01:02:44,160 he he's like your your beautiful zero RB baby. 1048 01:02:44,160 --> 01:02:47,280 Like if you drafted Brian Robinson on A0RB team. 1049 01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:50,760 My goodness, that's like everything you could ask for. 1050 01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:52,920 You know he is. He's filling in your roster, 1051 01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:54,880 making sure you're not taking zeros, You're putting up 1052 01:02:54,880 --> 01:02:56,640 respectable scores a lot of weeks. 1053 01:02:57,240 --> 01:03:00,280 Brian Robinson turning into an awesome pick there, even though 1054 01:03:00,440 --> 01:03:02,800 you know the ceiling isn't so crazy. 1055 01:03:02,800 --> 01:03:04,520 He's splitting a lot of stuff with Gibson. 1056 01:03:04,520 --> 01:03:06,880 Gibson's getting a lot of high value touches still. 1057 01:03:08,000 --> 01:03:10,920 But yeah, I just wanted to call out Brian Robinson there and 1058 01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:15,160 then Jalen Warren getting the official nod from the team as 1059 01:03:15,160 --> 01:03:17,560 now he is the lead back on the team. 1060 01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:22,320 I think it's like it's kind of like lead back in name only, 1061 01:03:22,320 --> 01:03:24,280 right? Like is it really that different 1062 01:03:24,280 --> 01:03:26,840 than what we were already doing? Like I know that he got a couple 1063 01:03:26,840 --> 01:03:29,760 more carries this week than he had, you know, compared to his 1064 01:03:29,760 --> 01:03:32,960 average touches. So I think it moves the needle a 1065 01:03:32,960 --> 01:03:36,160 little bit, but I think. And I think it was like this 1066 01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:40,080 already was the thing, you know, like we just put a label on it, 1067 01:03:40,080 --> 01:03:43,640 you know, Jalen Warren and Mike Tomlin, they were talking 1068 01:03:43,640 --> 01:03:45,560 before, but now they're officially dating. 1069 01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:47,840 Like they they just finally put a label on it, you know? 1070 01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:50,240 Yeah. I am. 1071 01:03:50,520 --> 01:03:55,560 I think that they were already sort of pretty close to 5050 and 1072 01:03:55,720 --> 01:04:00,280 and now they were like 5545. Jalen Warren's gone from 1073 01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:03,520 probably gone from the 45 to the 55 S. 1074 01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:09,600 Maybe it it means a little bit more and but like you said they 1075 01:04:09,600 --> 01:04:12,960 were already there it it's just them them like acknowledging 1076 01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:16,800 what was already reality. So let's let's flip. 1077 01:04:16,800 --> 01:04:19,880 To this next chart and take a little mental snapshot of where 1078 01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:22,440 Josh Jacobs is. So he's about 12 expected 1079 01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:26,280 fantasy points on the ground. He's got just shy of four 1080 01:04:26,280 --> 01:04:29,160 expected fantasy points or right about four expected through the 1081 01:04:29,160 --> 01:04:31,880 air there. So sitting around 16 expected 1082 01:04:31,880 --> 01:04:34,840 fantasy points and we'll do a little Rashad White comparison. 1083 01:04:35,800 --> 01:04:36,920 What do you? Know it's. 1084 01:04:37,280 --> 01:04:40,360 Draco with an incredible call. They're the same player, Rashad 1085 01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:44,200 White, with higher expected receiving fantasy points. 1086 01:04:45,120 --> 01:04:50,600 Now the the, the tricky part of of that comparison is with Jimmy 1087 01:04:50,600 --> 01:04:54,960 Garoppolo, there was a lot of lot of check downs to Josh 1088 01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:59,640 Jacobs. So I'm I'm wondering how how 1089 01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:03,560 sticky do you think or or I I guess over the last couple weeks 1090 01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:06,560 he's had less expected fantasy points in the passing game. 1091 01:05:07,000 --> 01:05:09,800 Do you think that's a trend like that we should be paying 1092 01:05:09,800 --> 01:05:11,720 attention to? Hey, without Jimmy Garoppolo, 1093 01:05:11,720 --> 01:05:14,400 Josh Jacobs role in the passing game is a little lighter. 1094 01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:17,000 Do you think it's just noise over the last couple weeks? 1095 01:05:17,000 --> 01:05:21,400 How do you think that shakes out for that comparison and? 1096 01:05:22,280 --> 01:05:28,000 I mean it. It's hard to call like I want to 1097 01:05:28,000 --> 01:05:30,400 say it it. Feels it feels a little bit like 1098 01:05:30,400 --> 01:05:36,360 the well, especially. Last week with them with the 1099 01:05:38,960 --> 01:05:41,800 with the Las. Vegas they they played it seemed 1100 01:05:41,800 --> 01:05:44,840 like they played a pretty short game like pretty short shitty 1101 01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:49,000 game so that that's one of those games where there's less snaps 1102 01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:51,440 going overall. So I think that will depress 1103 01:05:52,240 --> 01:05:57,080 expected points but let me let me just pull up the the week by 1104 01:05:57,080 --> 01:06:07,200 week and sort of rather than. So yeah, last week they had he 1105 01:06:07,200 --> 01:06:12,400 had 15.8. And to me that, that, that. 1106 01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:16,640 That doesn't feel terribly sticky and and it being low just 1107 01:06:16,640 --> 01:06:19,640 because it was one of those games where there was a lot of 1108 01:06:19,640 --> 01:06:23,600 rushes, both offenses being bad, so fewer snaps overall. 1109 01:06:24,440 --> 01:06:30,360 Where is week? So week, Week Nine. 1110 01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:33,000 It was 19 expected points. And that's when they blew out 1111 01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:36,760 the Giants. So he had he had no expected 1112 01:06:36,760 --> 01:06:43,680 receiving points but 19 expected rushing points and then 16.4 in 1113 01:06:43,680 --> 01:06:53,640 week 815.3 week 7 and he did have 20.6 before that 22.6. 1114 01:06:54,360 --> 01:06:59,440 So I mean it, I guess it also depends. 1115 01:07:00,160 --> 01:07:02,760 So it's definitely lower, definitely feel that trend 1116 01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:05,680 lower. I guess the other question is, 1117 01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:12,400 is that because Josh Jacobs is, is is he getting a lower split 1118 01:07:12,760 --> 01:07:15,360 and I apologize that I'm sort of like figuring out the answer to 1119 01:07:15,360 --> 01:07:20,200 this as as I'm talking and is is there somebody else getting 1120 01:07:20,200 --> 01:07:23,480 splits and I don't that's not really true. 1121 01:07:23,480 --> 01:07:28,800 I don't think it's not a it's not that somebody else is taking 1122 01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:31,960 off work from Jacobs, is that. It's that the offense has been. 1123 01:07:32,560 --> 01:07:36,520 There's been the the pie that Jack Jacob the this his 1124 01:07:36,560 --> 01:07:39,760 percentage of the pie is about the same but the pie is smaller 1125 01:07:40,600 --> 01:07:47,760 and and is that something that's sort of sticky and I guess 1126 01:07:47,760 --> 01:07:50,480 probably. Not like I want to say that that 1127 01:07:50,480 --> 01:07:55,520 the the Las Vegas offense they're going to have their ups 1128 01:07:55,520 --> 01:08:00,040 and downs and but they they also feel like a little bit of a have 1129 01:08:00,040 --> 01:08:07,680 not offense so I guess the. Answer is I I think I think I 1130 01:08:07,680 --> 01:08:10,800 might get not my guess from looking at the data. 1131 01:08:10,800 --> 01:08:14,240 I think that it's more likely than not that Josh Jacobs 1132 01:08:14,240 --> 01:08:18,000 expected points coming down is more to do with the offensive 1133 01:08:18,040 --> 01:08:23,120 situation than his role and that should the offense get a more 1134 01:08:23,120 --> 01:08:26,800 fantasy be a fancy rich environment that he'll he'll 1135 01:08:26,800 --> 01:08:30,240 he'll still benefit disproportionately like he has 1136 01:08:30,279 --> 01:08:35,920 previously and but I guess you. Just have to see that and and I 1137 01:08:35,920 --> 01:08:39,800 guess I think they are a little bit of a hob not offense, but 1138 01:08:39,800 --> 01:08:42,479 they're not so terrible. It's not like they're so bereft 1139 01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:47,560 of weapons that they will just be like it's just going to be a 1140 01:08:47,560 --> 01:08:50,880 dog mire the whole way. So I I think you probably can 1141 01:08:50,880 --> 01:08:55,680 expect at least one or two big expected point games from Josh 1142 01:08:55,680 --> 01:08:59,160 Jacobs and and we'll see if he can convert those into actual 1143 01:08:59,160 --> 01:09:03,279 big. Point games, so so let's tie. 1144 01:09:03,279 --> 01:09:06,279 A bow on this Rashad White, Josh Jacobs, because I think that was 1145 01:09:06,279 --> 01:09:08,560 such an interesting comparison that you made. 1146 01:09:09,040 --> 01:09:12,200 But I really want to analyze it through the context of this week 1147 01:09:12,200 --> 01:09:15,720 specifically so that people have a, you know, an actionable take 1148 01:09:15,720 --> 01:09:17,279 away. If you're drafting dog bowls, 1149 01:09:17,279 --> 01:09:19,160 you're, you know, thinking about it for DFS. 1150 01:09:19,720 --> 01:09:24,200 So Rashad White gets the 49ers, who he just saw, you know, 1151 01:09:24,200 --> 01:09:28,080 absolutely snuff out. All of my you know 30 something 1152 01:09:28,080 --> 01:09:31,880 percent Travis ETN dog bowl teams from the last week and 1153 01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:35,080 they just they they put they put a candle on that or they put a 1154 01:09:35,120 --> 01:09:38,960 they put a cover on that candle real quick and Travis Etn was 1155 01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:40,600 was pretty dead in the water there. 1156 01:09:41,600 --> 01:09:44,560 You know that that 49 inch defense was very formidable 1157 01:09:44,560 --> 01:09:46,840 against the running back position this past week. 1158 01:09:47,240 --> 01:09:50,399 So you got Rashad White, who's not a great runner going into 1159 01:09:50,399 --> 01:09:52,160 that, but. He, you know, a lot of his 1160 01:09:52,160 --> 01:09:54,480 expecting fantasy points are coming in the passing game where 1161 01:09:54,480 --> 01:09:57,560 if they are trailing the 49ers, he's still he's not going to get 1162 01:09:57,560 --> 01:10:00,640 game scripted out. On the other side of the coin, 1163 01:10:00,640 --> 01:10:05,240 you got Josh Jacobs against the Dolphins I believe, I believe 1164 01:10:05,240 --> 01:10:08,960 they're at Miami. But they've they've got, you 1165 01:10:08,960 --> 01:10:12,920 know an opponent who could very much push them, put them in a 1166 01:10:12,920 --> 01:10:16,520 negative game script. Now I know we've seen Jacobs 1167 01:10:16,520 --> 01:10:19,720 kind of get. Game scripted out, which is 1168 01:10:19,720 --> 01:10:22,160 weird given his involvement in the passing game. 1169 01:10:22,880 --> 01:10:25,120 But what do you what do you think here? 1170 01:10:25,120 --> 01:10:29,160 Do you prefer Jacobs against a a slightly more vulnerable Miami 1171 01:10:29,160 --> 01:10:31,400 defense in in a game that should? 1172 01:10:31,400 --> 01:10:34,120 There should be a lot of points scored on the other side, but 1173 01:10:34,120 --> 01:10:37,680 you prefer Rashad White against a a very formidable 49ers 1174 01:10:37,680 --> 01:10:40,080 defense. Also, probably a lot of points 1175 01:10:40,200 --> 01:10:43,840 coming from that oppo offense there this is. 1176 01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:46,120 It just truly feels like a gun in my head. 1177 01:10:46,280 --> 01:10:49,920 And I I. I mean, both of those feel kind 1178 01:10:49,920 --> 01:10:55,880 of like gross, right? And where's 49ers like you said, 1179 01:10:56,520 --> 01:11:03,480 given the framing that they just slammed Etienne down and but I 1180 01:11:03,480 --> 01:11:06,600 guess maybe with some further context is that like the 49ers 1181 01:11:06,600 --> 01:11:08,440 offense hasn't been invulnerable. 1182 01:11:08,840 --> 01:11:11,600 Like there's been offenses that have put up points against them 1183 01:11:12,800 --> 01:11:15,240 and wait. Or Shad White. 1184 01:11:15,240 --> 01:11:19,640 Not like. Not a great talent. 1185 01:11:19,640 --> 01:11:25,280 So like average of best talent, the Tampa Bay offense being an 1186 01:11:25,280 --> 01:11:31,400 average of best offense and 49ers being an elite defense. 1187 01:11:31,400 --> 01:11:34,600 I guess you you would lean the the balance of probabilities 1188 01:11:34,600 --> 01:11:41,760 that they sort of like just crushed them and and then it's 1189 01:11:41,800 --> 01:11:43,280 really I. I don't. 1190 01:11:43,280 --> 01:11:45,400 I don't want to say that like dolphins. 1191 01:11:46,120 --> 01:11:48,080 Defense is is just like a punching bag. 1192 01:11:48,080 --> 01:11:50,520 I I don't. I don't think it it has been 1193 01:11:51,440 --> 01:11:55,480 and, but it's definitely not the 40. 1194 01:11:55,480 --> 01:11:58,720 Niners, that's for sure. And so I, I, I, I think you 1195 01:11:58,720 --> 01:12:05,440 probably do lean Jacobs there. Where's just I I guess. 1196 01:12:05,440 --> 01:12:11,120 Just because the maybe just slightly on defensive matchups, 1197 01:12:11,400 --> 01:12:14,280 I mean that doesn't feel like a great. 1198 01:12:15,920 --> 01:12:18,320 A great reason to lean one player another. 1199 01:12:18,320 --> 01:12:20,880 You'll like the defensive match of it better because that that 1200 01:12:20,880 --> 01:12:25,440 stuff is so it's so volatile. It's so random that like it can 1201 01:12:25,440 --> 01:12:29,720 just be wrong and but I think you probably do give a slight 1202 01:12:29,720 --> 01:12:31,920 lean with them being very similar. 1203 01:12:32,160 --> 01:12:37,680 Being very similar and players and and and and maybe even 1204 01:12:37,680 --> 01:12:41,120 offenses. In terms of like your their 1205 01:12:41,120 --> 01:12:43,880 expected points and stuff like that that you probably just give 1206 01:12:43,880 --> 01:12:50,560 the slight lean to to the defense but caveated with strong 1207 01:12:50,560 --> 01:12:54,880 and price sensitivity, strong like ownership and sensitivity, 1208 01:12:55,120 --> 01:12:59,720 stuff like that. That like if, like Josh Jacobs 1209 01:12:59,720 --> 01:13:04,120 was way more expensive than Rashad White just because of a 1210 01:13:04,120 --> 01:13:06,600 defensive difference, then it would be Rashad White. 1211 01:13:07,000 --> 01:13:11,480 But in a vacuum, all else equal would slightly in Josh Jacobs. 1212 01:13:12,120 --> 01:13:13,400 OK. And then. 1213 01:13:13,400 --> 01:13:17,080 Let's just expand on that and say because it is clear you 1214 01:13:17,080 --> 01:13:19,120 don't have a strong lead between those guys. 1215 01:13:19,120 --> 01:13:21,440 They're they're relatively similar, it's more about price 1216 01:13:21,440 --> 01:13:24,240 sensitivity. What do you think about Aaron 1217 01:13:24,240 --> 01:13:27,320 Jones versus both of those two? You prefer Jones? 1218 01:13:29,440 --> 01:13:32,680 He's he's got the Chargers. This week who just got ran all 1219 01:13:32,680 --> 01:13:36,480 over by granted the one of the best run games in the league. 1220 01:13:36,480 --> 01:13:38,920 But that does feel a bit. Better, right? 1221 01:13:39,560 --> 01:13:41,720 I I agree. You have the more explosive 1222 01:13:41,720 --> 01:13:44,120 player. And and I think he's just as 1223 01:13:44,120 --> 01:13:46,280 important to the offense. They really don't like AJ 1224 01:13:46,280 --> 01:13:50,400 Dillon, so. I think, I think that, I think 1225 01:13:50,400 --> 01:13:52,960 that's where I would go, yeah. And then I'm I'm pretty sure. 1226 01:13:52,960 --> 01:13:55,480 You'll say Aaron Jones over this other player. 1227 01:13:56,040 --> 01:13:58,560 You you would take Aaron Jones over Saquan Barkley? 1228 01:13:58,560 --> 01:14:01,680 I'm assuming without too much thought, yeah. 1229 01:14:02,000 --> 01:14:05,040 It it feels right. But then, Saquan. 1230 01:14:05,040 --> 01:14:10,560 In that, Rashad White and Josh Jacobs triumvirate of yuckiness. 1231 01:14:11,000 --> 01:14:12,920 Do you have? Oh my God, you're just making. 1232 01:14:12,920 --> 01:14:13,560 Me. Fucking. 1233 01:14:14,400 --> 01:14:17,320 The I Deep dive make it, making you earn it this. 1234 01:14:17,320 --> 01:14:19,320 Week, Draco. I'm like swimming through. 1235 01:14:19,320 --> 01:14:22,880 Garbage. Like I just dumped in the dive 1236 01:14:24,280 --> 01:14:26,200 in the dumpster. Dive in the dumpster. 1237 01:14:26,560 --> 01:14:30,760 Dumped in the dumpster. And and I'm swimming. 1238 01:14:31,600 --> 01:14:37,400 I mean, am I allowed to say they're? 1239 01:14:37,400 --> 01:14:40,520 Like they're those those are just truly all gross. 1240 01:14:41,120 --> 01:14:44,560 And you need a If you're playing any of them, you need an awful 1241 01:14:44,560 --> 01:14:47,960 lot of luck to go on your side, and that it's hard, that that's 1242 01:14:47,960 --> 01:14:52,120 hard to pin down. What you want is. 1243 01:14:52,120 --> 01:14:53,360 Is that too much of A? Cop down. 1244 01:14:53,800 --> 01:14:56,660 That's that's fair. So but I I think the the take 1245 01:14:56,660 --> 01:14:59,520 away that we can give people then is those three are kind of 1246 01:14:59,520 --> 01:15:03,320 a similar tier. So maybe say for example, you're 1247 01:15:03,320 --> 01:15:06,080 you're sitting there in the dog bowl and you aggressively 1248 01:15:06,080 --> 01:15:09,040 attacked receiver early this week because. 1249 01:15:09,520 --> 01:15:12,200 What I'm seeing, that seems to be a sharp way to play this 1250 01:15:12,200 --> 01:15:15,080 week. The way the slate plays out and 1251 01:15:15,600 --> 01:15:18,560 you're sitting here and those 3 backs are available and you 1252 01:15:18,560 --> 01:15:21,760 could either take the first of those 3 backs or you could 1253 01:15:21,760 --> 01:15:23,680 prioritize your quarterback or tight end. 1254 01:15:24,600 --> 01:15:27,760 If you thought one of those would make it back to you, you 1255 01:15:27,760 --> 01:15:31,320 you'd be totally fine just taking whoever the market gave 1256 01:15:31,320 --> 01:15:34,480 you out of those three. Yeah, totally, totally, totally. 1257 01:15:35,320 --> 01:15:36,480 All right. I think. 1258 01:15:36,480 --> 01:15:42,360 We spent. You know who I who I want. 1259 01:15:42,360 --> 01:15:45,120 More to the hold Em Devin. Singletary, baby. 1260 01:15:45,520 --> 01:15:50,160 Oh my God, you. Your Devin Singletary love is 1261 01:15:50,160 --> 01:15:54,480 unparalleled, and that's a little bit of a joke. 1262 01:15:54,560 --> 01:16:00,280 I I I think that he's probably he's he's at least a lot closer 1263 01:16:00,280 --> 01:16:02,000 to him. Assuming Damien Pierce doesn't 1264 01:16:02,000 --> 01:16:04,040 play. I don't think he's any different 1265 01:16:04,840 --> 01:16:06,560 in play to them. Wow. 1266 01:16:07,240 --> 01:16:10,600 That's a That's a strong endorsement for Devin Singletary 1267 01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:14,080 I I. I I all I'm saying is I think 1268 01:16:14,080 --> 01:16:17,640 he's in in that tier, which honestly it says a lot about. 1269 01:16:18,520 --> 01:16:21,720 I think it says a lot about what sort of what I think about that 1270 01:16:21,720 --> 01:16:24,240 tier as well that's that's also. True. 1271 01:16:25,320 --> 01:16:28,080 So here we have the. Tight end utilization and 1272 01:16:28,080 --> 01:16:31,680 efficiency chart and when and this is our sort of starting 1273 01:16:31,680 --> 01:16:35,920 tight ends and we've sorted this by route percentage and 1274 01:16:35,920 --> 01:16:39,480 obviously. With the way different offenses 1275 01:16:39,480 --> 01:16:42,880 use their tight ends, what you want is you want a tight end 1276 01:16:42,880 --> 01:16:46,320 that's running a lot of routes, not having the pass block a lot. 1277 01:16:46,600 --> 01:16:51,680 And then you also want you want the the tight end on a team 1278 01:16:51,680 --> 01:16:55,400 where they're just using one guy all the time like you can. 1279 01:16:55,600 --> 01:17:00,000 You can have offenses where tight ends are involved, but if 1280 01:17:00,000 --> 01:17:02,840 they split it between three different guys it's it's not 1281 01:17:02,840 --> 01:17:06,640 that helpful so. Yeah that that's why it's it's 1282 01:17:06,640 --> 01:17:09,720 quite valuable to see the the routes as a percentage of team 1283 01:17:09,840 --> 01:17:13,960 drop back and then you want to see guys who are getting down 1284 01:17:13,960 --> 01:17:18,400 the field targets much more helpful than sort of like short 1285 01:17:18,400 --> 01:17:23,800 dump offs and you also want to see what rate they're they're 1286 01:17:23,800 --> 01:17:26,680 getting targeted at per route. So targets per run is that 1287 01:17:26,680 --> 01:17:31,480 percentage and again I, I, I. Think. 1288 01:17:32,280 --> 01:17:35,760 It's really interesting seeing Dalton Schultz sort of like 1289 01:17:35,760 --> 01:17:39,600 catapult into the the tops part of this chart. 1290 01:17:39,800 --> 01:17:43,080 Just because it seemed like early in the offseason or 1291 01:17:43,080 --> 01:17:46,160 actually later in the offseason and the preseason and and even 1292 01:17:46,600 --> 01:17:50,960 going into the season it I I wouldn't have expected them to 1293 01:17:50,960 --> 01:17:57,080 be like a true true starter getting 20% targets per run like 1294 01:17:57,280 --> 01:18:01,680 8.2, A dot like that that feels like. 1295 01:18:02,480 --> 01:18:06,520 Dalton Schultz belongs in, like, maybe like, top six, top ten 1296 01:18:06,520 --> 01:18:09,200 tight ends rest of the year, yeah. 1297 01:18:09,840 --> 01:18:13,680 You know, I I know most people probably aren't gonna go back 1298 01:18:13,680 --> 01:18:15,760 and unearth their own worst takes. 1299 01:18:15,760 --> 01:18:18,280 But yeah, definitely don't go listen to like Week 1 or week 1300 01:18:18,280 --> 01:18:22,560 two of stat chasing where I believe I said to the effect of. 1301 01:18:23,160 --> 01:18:25,840 If you drafted Dalton Schultz, he's a zero for the rest of the 1302 01:18:25,840 --> 01:18:28,880 year for you. So don't definitely don't listen 1303 01:18:28,880 --> 01:18:32,000 to that. Yeah, Dalton Schultz role has 1304 01:18:32,120 --> 01:18:35,200 certainly grown as the season has progressed. 1305 01:18:36,640 --> 01:18:41,120 I do think that he and Nico Collins are likely negatively 1306 01:18:41,120 --> 01:18:44,080 correlated and that they both are operating kind of in that 1307 01:18:44,080 --> 01:18:49,840 middle of the field, you know quadrant and so. 1308 01:18:50,440 --> 01:18:54,720 I I think that when Nico is active it probably hurt Schultz 1309 01:18:54,720 --> 01:18:57,160 a little bit. I would, I would want to see, 1310 01:18:58,040 --> 01:19:00,760 you know it's it's too small a sample to actually even know 1311 01:19:00,760 --> 01:19:05,200 this season. But like, I I would bet you that 1312 01:19:05,400 --> 01:19:08,200 Schultz and Collins are negatively correlated. 1313 01:19:08,200 --> 01:19:12,680 And so if I'm ever playing like CJ Stroud, double SI probably. 1314 01:19:13,680 --> 01:19:17,560 I mean, I wouldn't go out of my way to avoid pairing those two, 1315 01:19:18,120 --> 01:19:21,960 but like if if there were other factors like a salary discount 1316 01:19:21,960 --> 01:19:26,080 in DFS or an ownership discount or you know, major ADP 1317 01:19:26,080 --> 01:19:28,920 differences or things like that where I can if if I'm going for 1318 01:19:28,920 --> 01:19:32,280 ACJ Stroud double. I'm probably having like a 1319 01:19:32,280 --> 01:19:35,960 slight tiebreaker against doubling with Schultz and 1320 01:19:35,960 --> 01:19:40,120 Collins. Just like a small little micro 1321 01:19:40,960 --> 01:19:42,960 thing that could be totally wrong. 1322 01:19:43,840 --> 01:19:48,440 But, but that's in in my brain. That is that's how I'm viewing 1323 01:19:48,440 --> 01:19:50,520 it right now. There's there's maybe a slight 1324 01:19:50,520 --> 01:19:53,720 negative correlation there between those guys that makes 1325 01:19:53,720 --> 01:19:55,920 sense. And and so I guess we should 1326 01:19:55,920 --> 01:20:00,680 address our, our cover bite here, where you said that his 1327 01:20:01,040 --> 01:20:05,400 training bride, his his very strong production last week is 1328 01:20:05,400 --> 01:20:09,320 perhaps a bit fragile. Yeah, I mean. 1329 01:20:09,520 --> 01:20:12,920 I do think that. You know, we're seeing the 1330 01:20:12,920 --> 01:20:17,840 breakout happen like 27% targets per route run is elite. 1331 01:20:18,160 --> 01:20:22,600 You know 7.3 A dot is very good, especially for you know it's not 1332 01:20:22,640 --> 01:20:26,240 one of the highest ones, but when you get 27% targets per 1333 01:20:26,240 --> 01:20:28,880 route run. It doesn't matter you you can 1334 01:20:28,880 --> 01:20:31,000 have a much lower A dot and still be a crusher. 1335 01:20:31,840 --> 01:20:34,920 This is actually what we saw early this season. 1336 01:20:34,920 --> 01:20:37,120 Like same targets for outruns, similar A dot. 1337 01:20:37,120 --> 01:20:39,160 I think a little lower. A dot for Jake Ferguson. 1338 01:20:39,160 --> 01:20:41,440 But this is what we saw from Jake Ferguson in the first 1339 01:20:41,440 --> 01:20:44,200 couple weeks that kind of perked our antennas up for him. 1340 01:20:44,200 --> 01:20:46,960 We're like whoa, this guy. He wasn't running as many. 1341 01:20:46,960 --> 01:20:50,680 He wasn't on the field as much as McBride but when he was he 1342 01:20:50,680 --> 01:20:52,560 was getting targeted at this rate. 1343 01:20:53,040 --> 01:20:55,520 And so I and Trey McBride looks like. 1344 01:20:56,240 --> 01:20:57,720 You know, he looks like the real deal. 1345 01:20:57,720 --> 01:21:01,400 So I'm not I'm not trying to poo poo all over Trey McBride when I 1346 01:21:01,400 --> 01:21:03,920 say that the projection of him being the highest projected 1347 01:21:03,920 --> 01:21:06,160 tight end on the main slate this week is fragile. 1348 01:21:07,200 --> 01:21:10,680 I just this is the second game the dude has played with Kyler 1349 01:21:10,680 --> 01:21:11,880 this season. You know? 1350 01:21:12,160 --> 01:21:15,760 And last season, like, I don't think he played a ton while 1351 01:21:15,760 --> 01:21:18,800 Kyler was healthy. I think he got some run, but 1352 01:21:19,320 --> 01:21:22,240 like you're still in a relative. You got a relatively small 1353 01:21:22,240 --> 01:21:25,040 sample here of Trey McBride working with Kyler. 1354 01:21:25,800 --> 01:21:29,680 And I I don't think that it's a given that he's locked in the 1355 01:21:29,720 --> 01:21:32,360 number one option on the offense. 1356 01:21:32,360 --> 01:21:36,480 I mean, do I want to do I want to play McBride and Kyler stacks 1357 01:21:36,480 --> 01:21:38,000 this week? Hell yeah. 1358 01:21:38,000 --> 01:21:39,640 I'm. I'm going to do it a lot, you 1359 01:21:39,640 --> 01:21:41,440 know? But I I think. 1360 01:21:41,520 --> 01:21:42,640 In the. Same vein. 1361 01:21:42,640 --> 01:21:46,920 You need to be willing to do Kyler and Hollywood and I I 1362 01:21:46,920 --> 01:21:50,560 think even like I'm trying to remember how cheap Rondale Moore 1363 01:21:50,560 --> 01:21:54,160 is, I was like, I. Did a very early cursory look at 1364 01:21:54,160 --> 01:21:58,240 prices on DraftKings but Rondell Moore looked I I think he's like 1365 01:21:58,480 --> 01:22:02,960 if he's not Stoneman he's like 33 or 3400 or something I want 1366 01:22:02,960 --> 01:22:06,680 to say and that's interesting to me too. 1367 01:22:07,160 --> 01:22:11,720 So I think you just I think attacking the whole game 1368 01:22:11,720 --> 01:22:15,360 environment is interesting this week but bringing it all back to 1369 01:22:15,360 --> 01:22:19,680 Trey McBride you know rest of season outlook looks elite he 1370 01:22:19,680 --> 01:22:21,560 he'll be a tight in one rest this season. 1371 01:22:23,120 --> 01:22:27,600 But I'm just to. Acknowledge we as soon as Zach 1372 01:22:27,600 --> 01:22:32,360 Ertz went down we called top six tight end and rest of the year 1373 01:22:32,840 --> 01:22:37,000 and not that we want to but just to contextualize it, we we have 1374 01:22:37,080 --> 01:22:41,200 been very big and bulls very bullish on training ride. 1375 01:22:41,680 --> 01:22:43,720 That's that's good stuff. Draco, you got to mix our 1376 01:22:43,720 --> 01:22:46,400 victory laps in there to offset my dog shit. 1377 01:22:46,400 --> 01:22:49,160 Dalton Shoals things. So we, you know, we just kind of 1378 01:22:49,280 --> 01:22:51,440 got to layer those in. We're we're giving you the good 1379 01:22:51,440 --> 01:22:54,800 and the bad here. But yeah, we're we're clearly 1380 01:22:54,800 --> 01:22:58,040 very bullish on Trey McBride. I got a lot in my best ball bags 1381 01:22:58,560 --> 01:23:01,280 like he's very exciting for the rest of the season. 1382 01:23:01,280 --> 01:23:03,920 I'm just saying like when you get this level. 1383 01:23:04,400 --> 01:23:06,760 We're we're going to go through the Trey McBride irrational 1384 01:23:06,760 --> 01:23:11,080 exuberance period in the market right now because he is the hot 1385 01:23:11,080 --> 01:23:14,080 young thing. Like just just watch like the 1386 01:23:14,080 --> 01:23:16,960 lead up to this week, like all the DFS shows and everything. 1387 01:23:16,960 --> 01:23:20,440 Like you're going to get some Trey McBride chatter, you know, 1388 01:23:20,440 --> 01:23:25,160 just just wait for it. And all I'm saying is be willing 1389 01:23:25,160 --> 01:23:27,800 to get a little different than the. 1390 01:23:27,800 --> 01:23:30,400 Market if Trey McBride's going to come in as, like, far and 1391 01:23:30,400 --> 01:23:33,280 away the most common way to play Kyler this week. 1392 01:23:34,200 --> 01:23:36,640 I'm just, I'm willing to do a little, little different. 1393 01:23:36,640 --> 01:23:38,320 Not that I'm full Fading McBride. 1394 01:23:38,320 --> 01:23:39,960 Like I I'm going to play a bunch of it. 1395 01:23:40,200 --> 01:23:43,640 I just I think there's a lot of meat on the bone potentially 1396 01:23:43,640 --> 01:23:45,880 with how excited people are going to be for him this week. 1397 01:23:45,880 --> 01:23:48,000 That's all right. So. 1398 01:23:48,200 --> 01:23:50,040 You you. What you're saying is you do 1399 01:23:50,040 --> 01:23:52,800 actually agree with a high projection for McBride. 1400 01:23:52,880 --> 01:23:55,040 Yeah, yeah, he should. Like. 1401 01:23:55,400 --> 01:23:58,080 There's good reason to be excited for McBride, right. 1402 01:23:58,080 --> 01:23:59,960 He looks great. The role is great. 1403 01:23:59,960 --> 01:24:03,960 Like it's it's all systems go. It's just that when you get the 1404 01:24:03,960 --> 01:24:06,920 market behaving like this on a player where they're ever in. 1405 01:24:06,920 --> 01:24:10,800 So like Trey McBride's going like, I think I saw him go 1-2 1406 01:24:10,800 --> 01:24:17,320 turn in a dog bowl today. Like, dude, Trey McBride is, you 1407 01:24:17,320 --> 01:24:20,160 know, Jesus Christ himself. Apparently according to the 1408 01:24:20,160 --> 01:24:22,960 market right now, like I fully. Expect him to walk. 1409 01:24:22,960 --> 01:24:25,640 On water this Sunday. So the. 1410 01:24:26,160 --> 01:24:27,920 What? What's the $100 contest? 1411 01:24:27,920 --> 01:24:34,000 That That's the main small small fields, The single entry on DK, 1412 01:24:34,000 --> 01:24:35,920 the SPY. The spy, Yeah. 1413 01:24:36,120 --> 01:24:41,880 So what what ownership would would do you change it. 1414 01:24:42,120 --> 01:24:45,480 It's so early and he's not like. He's not priced down a ton. 1415 01:24:45,480 --> 01:24:50,800 I think he's a four, like a low 4K kind of guy, but 4400. 4400. 1416 01:24:51,920 --> 01:24:55,360 I haven't. And then the Portis 58, Schultz 1417 01:24:55,360 --> 01:25:03,120 is 5000, Kiddo 64, Kincaid is 40. 9 Oh God, you're gonna. 1418 01:25:03,200 --> 01:25:07,720 You're gonna get all right I'll I'll this this is don't don't 1419 01:25:07,720 --> 01:25:10,080 not not your prediction I'm. Not asking you to predict 1420 01:25:10,080 --> 01:25:12,200 ownership. I'm asking what you think 1421 01:25:12,200 --> 01:25:14,960 ownership should be. Oh, what should it be? 1422 01:25:15,080 --> 01:25:18,520 Oh, official ownership for him is probably like in the high 30s 1423 01:25:18,520 --> 01:25:22,200 like I I would say. So. 1424 01:25:23,200 --> 01:25:27,120 So again to bring further nuance to your point, you think he's a 1425 01:25:27,120 --> 01:25:29,840 smash play but he's a Giga smash. 1426 01:25:29,920 --> 01:25:33,320 Yeah. Like the field is going to be 1427 01:25:33,320 --> 01:25:39,320 so, so over on a what is it actually like I I need I need I 1428 01:25:39,320 --> 01:25:44,080 need tight end game to game is fragile because the the way the 1429 01:25:44,680 --> 01:25:48,840 the way the distribution of their scoring often works. 1430 01:25:49,320 --> 01:25:53,160 Is that they have the huge games they have like and then they 1431 01:25:53,160 --> 01:25:57,600 have they can often have times have like smaller games and I'm 1432 01:25:57,600 --> 01:26:00,960 not I'm not so sure that that's how it works for training Bride 1433 01:26:01,760 --> 01:26:05,960 given how to like because I I'm looking at it here just to to 1434 01:26:05,960 --> 01:26:10,280 tie back to the stat chasing stuff like he he was definitely 1435 01:26:10,280 --> 01:26:15,880 not a starter until weekend week. 1436 01:26:19,280 --> 01:26:23,360 Sorry until week 8. And then from there his his Rep 1437 01:26:23,360 --> 01:26:28,640 percentage was 88%, his target Rep per out run was 39% week, 1438 01:26:28,640 --> 01:26:35,160 963% right, right percentage, only 25% targets per out run and 1439 01:26:35,160 --> 01:26:39,160 then last week 78 percent, 32% target for out run. 1440 01:26:39,160 --> 01:26:43,320 So it's it's I I think. There is something there that as 1441 01:26:43,320 --> 01:26:46,600 he's played more, his target for out run has actually come in a 1442 01:26:46,600 --> 01:26:49,680 little higher. Than than his full season stuff. 1443 01:26:50,560 --> 01:26:54,640 So I think that he may. I think there's actually an 1444 01:26:54,640 --> 01:26:58,520 argument to be made that he is a true, like sort of ball hug, but 1445 01:26:59,160 --> 01:27:00,080 when you're talking. About. 1446 01:27:00,080 --> 01:27:03,960 Something where the the sample size is still pretty small that 1447 01:27:03,960 --> 01:27:07,920 people are playing in as if it's like definitely that way that 1448 01:27:08,040 --> 01:27:09,600 maybe there's some leverage on it. 1449 01:27:10,320 --> 01:27:11,920 That that's the point, right? Yeah. 1450 01:27:12,000 --> 01:27:12,960 Yep. And and. 1451 01:27:13,200 --> 01:27:16,840 Just if you want a place where you could potentially pivot this 1452 01:27:16,840 --> 01:27:22,240 week to get a another exciting tight end that looks good in you 1453 01:27:22,240 --> 01:27:26,960 know, in this tight end usage chart, you know could deliver a 1454 01:27:26,960 --> 01:27:28,680 big spike. Week has already done it a 1455 01:27:28,680 --> 01:27:32,280 couple times this season, and you could also pair with a 1456 01:27:32,280 --> 01:27:35,800 quarterback with rushing upside in a pretty condensed target 1457 01:27:35,800 --> 01:27:38,840 tree offense. Yeah, I think playing Cole Comet 1458 01:27:38,880 --> 01:27:42,920 and Justin Fields in his first game back against a Detroit 1459 01:27:42,920 --> 01:27:46,040 team, that Detroit can score a lot of points. 1460 01:27:46,080 --> 01:27:50,240 And so if you get a game where they're able to go back and 1461 01:27:50,240 --> 01:27:55,680 forth, I think that the fields and Comet route to play it. 1462 01:27:55,680 --> 01:27:58,600 And then maybe you you get a little, you know, even stronger 1463 01:27:58,600 --> 01:28:02,040 leverage off McBride and play like a Hollywood Brown or a, you 1464 01:28:02,040 --> 01:28:05,160 know, full punt Rondale Moore at 3300 or whatever. 1465 01:28:06,240 --> 01:28:11,000 Like, because projections. Yeah, Casey's on the same page 1466 01:28:11,000 --> 01:28:14,640 with me here. Like, projections wise, there's 1467 01:28:14,640 --> 01:28:18,400 never in a million years that you could get to Rondale Moore 1468 01:28:18,480 --> 01:28:21,920 instead of Trey McBride on on this Cardinals side of that 1469 01:28:21,920 --> 01:28:23,840 game, right? Like, you're just never getting 1470 01:28:23,840 --> 01:28:26,640 there. And so if McBride really comes 1471 01:28:26,640 --> 01:28:30,520 in as steamed as he does and you're looking for a punt play, 1472 01:28:30,520 --> 01:28:32,440 I mean, Rondale Moore might be too thin. 1473 01:28:32,440 --> 01:28:34,280 Maybe you got to do like a Hollywood Brown. 1474 01:28:34,920 --> 01:28:40,200 In in like low 5 KS for for him. But the the point is there's 1475 01:28:40,200 --> 01:28:42,920 ways to lever off McBride. I think there's other really 1476 01:28:42,920 --> 01:28:46,840 interesting tight end plays on the slate and I I think that you 1477 01:28:46,840 --> 01:28:49,320 can pair it with another quarterback that could do the 1478 01:28:49,320 --> 01:28:53,320 type of stuff that Kyler can do as far as his single game 1479 01:28:53,320 --> 01:28:54,880 ceiling. I just, I like having those 1480 01:28:54,960 --> 01:28:58,960 onesie positions with the really strong correlation to their 1481 01:28:58,960 --> 01:29:00,520 ceilings. You know, tight end to 1482 01:29:00,520 --> 01:29:04,040 quarterback correlation. Is really nice with with so much 1483 01:29:04,040 --> 01:29:06,440 of their production, often times coming from touchdown. 1484 01:29:06,440 --> 01:29:11,040 So anyway, that's my my rambling bit on how we could potentially 1485 01:29:11,040 --> 01:29:13,000 play the Trey McBride situation this week. 1486 01:29:14,040 --> 01:29:15,920 Makes sense? Makes sense. 1487 01:29:15,920 --> 01:29:19,920 So I don't think there's a whole lot other surprise surprising 1488 01:29:19,920 --> 01:29:24,360 stuff here like the the, the, the thing that strikes my eye 1489 01:29:24,400 --> 01:29:29,400 the most is you're still seeing Michael Mayer stuck around this 1490 01:29:29,400 --> 01:29:34,120 sort of 60% rate. His his Tiger sprout run like 1491 01:29:34,120 --> 01:29:40,280 far from elite. So I think we we we were on sort 1492 01:29:40,280 --> 01:29:44,200 of breakout watch for Meyer and and I think we should still be 1493 01:29:44,600 --> 01:29:49,240 on breakout watch but definitely not there yet at all like. 1494 01:29:49,560 --> 01:29:54,440 Definitely is, is. A desperation start, if that. 1495 01:29:54,600 --> 01:29:58,600 At tight end, Yeah, Meyer Meyer's just. 1496 01:29:58,600 --> 01:30:01,560 Going to be the random rookie tight end that goes off in the 1497 01:30:01,560 --> 01:30:05,440 fantasy playoffs and everyone's like, we knew he could do it and 1498 01:30:05,440 --> 01:30:08,240 he ends up being a good best ball pick because his spike week 1499 01:30:08,240 --> 01:30:10,040 is Week 16. You know, right? 1500 01:30:10,600 --> 01:30:14,480 I I see it in my mind's eye. Yeah. 1501 01:30:14,640 --> 01:30:17,880 Damn. Here here's hoping anyway and 1502 01:30:18,880 --> 01:30:22,040 and so I. Unless you have any objections, 1503 01:30:22,320 --> 01:30:24,800 let's move on to to this. The backup? 1504 01:30:24,840 --> 01:30:28,720 Yeah, let's let's hit it. And Oh my God, it it. 1505 01:30:32,120 --> 01:30:33,680 I'm not. I'm not seeing a whole lot of 1506 01:30:33,680 --> 01:30:35,920 reason to to stay on this chart very long. 1507 01:30:36,200 --> 01:30:39,960 No, it's Jover. For Irv Smith, he's like not 1508 01:30:39,960 --> 01:30:42,080 even running the most routes for the Bengals. 1509 01:30:42,080 --> 01:30:46,080 So like, don't just. Just for everyone. 1510 01:30:46,080 --> 01:30:48,280 I need it. I'm saying this for me as much 1511 01:30:48,280 --> 01:30:51,760 As for everyone else. We never need to draft Irv Smith 1512 01:30:51,800 --> 01:30:53,920 again. There were lots of years where 1513 01:30:53,920 --> 01:30:57,480 we did the Irv Smith thing 'cause he looked exciting and 1514 01:30:57,480 --> 01:31:00,920 injury derailed him and oh, this is going to be the year Titans 1515 01:31:00,920 --> 01:31:05,200 can bloom late Irv Smith. We never need to do it again. 1516 01:31:05,320 --> 01:31:07,800 We're good. It this this can be the last 1517 01:31:07,800 --> 01:31:10,400 time that Irv hurts you. So I just, I needed to say that 1518 01:31:10,400 --> 01:31:12,920 really for me, just like just like. 1519 01:31:13,880 --> 01:31:16,400 This is a. Random Not useful to anyone 1520 01:31:16,400 --> 01:31:19,640 except like the most absolute sick degenerates. 1521 01:31:19,640 --> 01:31:24,800 But Lucas Kroll, Broncos tight end actually like got on the 1522 01:31:24,800 --> 01:31:28,440 field did some. Did the stuff that like you 1523 01:31:28,440 --> 01:31:31,480 would hope a Greg Dolich does and that he's he's like running 1524 01:31:31,480 --> 01:31:33,600 some downfield routes. They had him on a wheel route 1525 01:31:33,880 --> 01:31:37,000 anyway. Lucas Kroll had like a a full on 1526 01:31:37,000 --> 01:31:41,400 0 gooser projection and like every projection source for for 1527 01:31:41,400 --> 01:31:46,120 Showdown slate last night. And it was one where I noticed 1528 01:31:46,120 --> 01:31:50,880 just watching the game, like that's one where the projection 1529 01:31:50,880 --> 01:31:53,120 the people do it, the people that are really good at doing 1530 01:31:53,120 --> 01:31:58,400 projections didn't have this role that the Broncos clear. 1531 01:31:58,400 --> 01:32:01,920 Like this was a spot that the Broncos had in mind when they 1532 01:32:01,920 --> 01:32:04,160 elevated him. Like we need this guy to do this 1533 01:32:04,160 --> 01:32:08,040 thing and. For me, what it actually did was 1534 01:32:08,240 --> 01:32:11,160 gave me a little bit of hope that Dulcich could deliver. 1535 01:32:11,840 --> 01:32:14,280 I'm literally talking like one week. 1536 01:32:14,920 --> 01:32:18,400 I might get one spike week from Dulcich when he comes back, but 1537 01:32:18,400 --> 01:32:20,280 it looked I mean, this feels like a showdown. 1538 01:32:21,280 --> 01:32:23,360 Take. Exactly, That's really. 1539 01:32:23,360 --> 01:32:27,680 What it is, It's like I saw Lucas Kroll at $200.00 stone men 1540 01:32:27,680 --> 01:32:31,960 projected for full gooses, and then I saw what he actually did 1541 01:32:31,960 --> 01:32:35,320 in the game as like that. It should have been like A1A 1542 01:32:35,320 --> 01:32:38,840 projection of 1 or .8, but it shouldn't have been zero. 1543 01:32:38,840 --> 01:32:40,160 It should have been someone that if you're. 1544 01:32:40,600 --> 01:32:43,280 If you're 150 maxing and you're looking for unique lineups, you 1545 01:32:43,280 --> 01:32:46,040 should have played some. Lucas Kroll and I did not, but 1546 01:32:46,040 --> 01:32:48,640 I'm like, I filed that away in my mental filing cabinet. 1547 01:32:48,680 --> 01:32:50,240 So you won't have to file for very. 1548 01:32:50,240 --> 01:32:54,680 Long because the Broncos host the Vikings on Sunday Night 1549 01:32:54,680 --> 01:32:59,960 Football this week? Well, so here's the hoping so if 1550 01:32:59,960 --> 01:33:03,280 you see. If you see Lucas Kroll Captured 1551 01:33:03,280 --> 01:33:06,200 touchdown this week, you know you know Sacrilegious is 1552 01:33:06,200 --> 01:33:10,360 dancing. Oh boy. 1553 01:33:10,680 --> 01:33:13,600 But yeah, that's that's all the time and mental energy we need 1554 01:33:13,600 --> 01:33:15,560 to spend on this backup tight end chart. 1555 01:33:16,160 --> 01:33:22,120 Don't need to tell me twice and and so this I I I feel like the 1556 01:33:22,120 --> 01:33:25,760 wide receiver chart is another one where it gets it's pretty 1557 01:33:25,760 --> 01:33:30,600 stable but I see we have a new entrance here of Jalen Naylor 1558 01:33:30,960 --> 01:33:33,080 who ran Naylor. I hardly know her. 1559 01:33:35,560 --> 01:33:40,120 He he ran 95 to 100% of routes. But is it true? 1560 01:33:40,120 --> 01:33:46,560 Like he is like the the he is the president of the cardio club 1561 01:33:47,160 --> 01:33:52,840 like he is the CEO? Yeah, I almost, I almost wonder 1562 01:33:52,840 --> 01:33:55,840 if he's somebody that we should exclude from the chart we should 1563 01:33:55,960 --> 01:33:59,720 we should exclude. From the chart, but man, I was 1564 01:33:59,720 --> 01:34:03,320 talking shit on Alec Pierce doing the wind Sprint thing last 1565 01:34:03,320 --> 01:34:07,520 week and Jalen Naylor said hold my beer, I got this, I'm the 1566 01:34:07,520 --> 01:34:11,600 wind Sprint king. So yeah, Jalen Naylor. 1567 01:34:11,920 --> 01:34:13,640 You're only going to see him once, guys. 1568 01:34:13,720 --> 01:34:15,440 He'll he'll get excluded next week. 1569 01:34:15,520 --> 01:34:20,440 But talking about more relevant fantasy players? 1570 01:34:22,080 --> 01:34:26,720 Just music, music to my ears and warming my heart, Adam Thielen 1571 01:34:26,720 --> 01:34:29,760 continues to regress in the fantasy points department. 1572 01:34:30,240 --> 01:34:31,880 Beautiful, beautiful thing. You love to see it. 1573 01:34:31,880 --> 01:34:35,680 It was just so painful to watch the slappies getting there for 1574 01:34:35,680 --> 01:34:38,960 so long this season. But it truly looks like he is 1575 01:34:38,960 --> 01:34:42,080 coming back down to Earth and not running hotter than the sun 1576 01:34:42,080 --> 01:34:44,680 anymore. Got an interesting one for you. 1577 01:34:45,640 --> 01:34:49,360 How do we feel about Deontay Johnson as a a little positive 1578 01:34:49,360 --> 01:34:50,760 regression candidate? Here? 1579 01:34:52,760 --> 01:34:56,520 I'm going to be a little. Bit boggled here and say that I 1580 01:34:56,640 --> 01:35:02,160 think Deontay sort of belongs in the in the Aaron's targets 1581 01:35:02,400 --> 01:35:05,720 doesn't score points quadrant of the chart now. 1582 01:35:05,720 --> 01:35:08,120 This. Like I I want to preface this 1583 01:35:08,120 --> 01:35:11,360 with saying I I think he should be better than what is it? 1584 01:35:11,360 --> 01:35:14,600 Eight points a game. So I think you do have positive 1585 01:35:14,600 --> 01:35:19,760 regression coming there. But I'm going to say again, I. 1586 01:35:19,840 --> 01:35:25,040 Think that he profiles as a player who's almost always going 1587 01:35:25,040 --> 01:35:30,600 to get strong targets but underperform those targets and 1588 01:35:30,720 --> 01:35:34,120 it it's just who he's sort of been his entire career. 1589 01:35:34,720 --> 01:35:38,400 Or or am I? Am I being a bit too grinchy 1590 01:35:38,400 --> 01:35:42,240 there? I I gotta push back a. 1591 01:35:42,240 --> 01:35:44,200 Little bit. He had a couple pretty good 1592 01:35:44,200 --> 01:35:46,400 weeks here. I think he put together like a 1593 01:35:46,440 --> 01:35:49,640 18 point performance and like he he had some weeks where you 1594 01:35:49,640 --> 01:35:53,040 would have been very happy to have started him this last, 1595 01:35:53,040 --> 01:35:54,280 right. I'm not saying that he can't. 1596 01:35:54,280 --> 01:36:00,280 Score 18 points in a game? Yeah, I I don't think he's ever 1597 01:36:00,280 --> 01:36:03,760 gonna. Average above, I don't. 1598 01:36:03,760 --> 01:36:07,080 I I think it's it's very hard for me to see him averaging like 1599 01:36:07,080 --> 01:36:10,560 above 15 points a game. That's and that's. 1600 01:36:10,760 --> 01:36:12,400 Big stretch. Not that he can't. 1601 01:36:12,400 --> 01:36:13,840 Do it for three games or whatever. 1602 01:36:14,160 --> 01:36:15,520 That's that's fair. Yeah. 1603 01:36:15,520 --> 01:36:20,240 So, so let's let's pick some guys that are similar in in way 1604 01:36:20,240 --> 01:36:27,480 of targets for route run here like DK Metcalf or Deontay and 1605 01:36:27,720 --> 01:36:29,280 it. It has to be DK right? 1606 01:36:30,760 --> 01:36:34,480 I'm not. So sure on that one I I so 1607 01:36:34,480 --> 01:36:37,680 watching the Seahawks this last week against what's one of the 1608 01:36:37,680 --> 01:36:41,880 worst pass defenses in the league like yes the the counting 1609 01:36:41,880 --> 01:36:44,600 stats got there by the end of the game, right. 1610 01:36:45,080 --> 01:36:49,360 But for a lot of that game, I I was just watching it thinking 1611 01:36:49,680 --> 01:36:52,520 how are the Seahawks? How is the Seahawks passing 1612 01:36:52,520 --> 01:36:56,040 attack this poor? You know, like there is a long 1613 01:36:56,040 --> 01:36:57,840 stretch of that game where they just weren't. 1614 01:36:58,280 --> 01:37:03,680 Really doing anything like and and it's so split like yeah 1615 01:37:03,680 --> 01:37:08,760 Tyler Lockett had a good game but like I I feel like it's it's 1616 01:37:08,760 --> 01:37:13,760 really just like DK Tyler JSN now are all like eating into the 1617 01:37:13,760 --> 01:37:17,360 pie enough. And I I just Gino hasn't been 1618 01:37:17,480 --> 01:37:20,720 very good this season. I mean maybe you and this was 1619 01:37:20,720 --> 01:37:24,280 the spot you know like Gino was was Pat's cover boy on his 1620 01:37:24,280 --> 01:37:26,640 walkthrough this week. Like I really love the spot. 1621 01:37:26,640 --> 01:37:28,440 I played a good about it. Gino in dog bowl. 1622 01:37:28,760 --> 01:37:34,000 I attacked that game pretty aggressively and to me, I just, 1623 01:37:34,720 --> 01:37:35,800 you know, in in. Seeing it. 1624 01:37:35,800 --> 01:37:39,760 I was like I was left wondering if maybe the Seahawks passing 1625 01:37:39,760 --> 01:37:44,560 game is just not very good. And and that's not to say that 1626 01:37:44,560 --> 01:37:49,360 the Steelers passing game is very good, but it's like Deontay 1627 01:37:49,360 --> 01:37:54,640 is earning so much there. You know, compared to like the 1628 01:37:54,640 --> 01:37:57,640 splits for Pickens with and without Deontay are pretty 1629 01:37:57,640 --> 01:38:00,640 stark. Like Pickens is really suffering 1630 01:38:00,640 --> 01:38:04,040 from Deontay coming back. And so I'm just just a little 1631 01:38:04,040 --> 01:38:06,080 curious there, but. It's clear you prefer DK to 1632 01:38:06,080 --> 01:38:08,560 Deontay there. What about Godwin versus 1633 01:38:08,560 --> 01:38:14,080 Deontay? I think that those are those are 1634 01:38:14,080 --> 01:38:20,200 pretty similar players and I think Godwin is probably like if 1635 01:38:20,200 --> 01:38:23,440 you're looking for a regression, you're probably looking at 1636 01:38:23,480 --> 01:38:27,360 something close to what Godwin has been producing for Deontay. 1637 01:38:27,800 --> 01:38:32,120 But it it definitely feel, it definitely seems like the the 1638 01:38:32,120 --> 01:38:35,640 Tampa Bay offense has been more functional than Pittsburgh. 1639 01:38:36,800 --> 01:38:39,160 This is. This is one of those interesting 1640 01:38:39,160 --> 01:38:42,600 spots where for for me personally, I really try to fade 1641 01:38:42,600 --> 01:38:47,440 like any coach related narrative or like production adjustment 1642 01:38:47,440 --> 01:38:50,960 that we're we're applying to players during the offseason 1643 01:38:51,680 --> 01:38:54,960 because. Like guys the coaches take 0 1644 01:38:54,960 --> 01:38:57,800 snaps. You know, like I I've never seen 1645 01:38:57,800 --> 01:39:00,280 Canalis get out there on the field for the Bucks and take a 1646 01:39:00,280 --> 01:39:02,760 snap. But gosh darn it, like the 1647 01:39:02,760 --> 01:39:05,600 Seahawks offense looks a lot worse without him and the Bucks 1648 01:39:05,600 --> 01:39:07,720 defense looks pretty good with him. 1649 01:39:07,720 --> 01:39:10,520 Like for for what the Bucks are. You know, like, I I think 1650 01:39:10,520 --> 01:39:14,240 everyone expected the Bucks to be like basement dwellers this 1651 01:39:14,240 --> 01:39:17,960 season and Mike Evans is out here doing Mike Evans. 1652 01:39:17,960 --> 01:39:20,600 Shit, guys, I'm like. Chris Godwin's suffering a 1653 01:39:20,600 --> 01:39:24,400 little bit because of that. It's like so much heavily going 1654 01:39:24,400 --> 01:39:28,120 to Mike Evans and Les to Godwin this season, but it's like you 1655 01:39:28,120 --> 01:39:31,280 know and you got Rashad White with an incredible role like 1656 01:39:31,280 --> 01:39:34,000 very functional like fantasy option. 1657 01:39:34,000 --> 01:39:37,440 So I I don't know. There there's I I guess what I'm 1658 01:39:37,440 --> 01:39:41,080 trying to say is there are these outlier coaches or offensive 1659 01:39:41,080 --> 01:39:44,960 coordinators where it's like if you're able to identify the guys 1660 01:39:44,960 --> 01:39:47,680 that are actual legitimate difference makers. 1661 01:39:48,600 --> 01:39:50,960 For putting their players in positions to succeed for 1662 01:39:50,960 --> 01:39:53,920 fantasy, I think that's pretty important. 1663 01:39:54,000 --> 01:39:57,600 And then for everyone else, you just need to not listen to 1664 01:39:57,600 --> 01:40:00,360 anything that's coach related because it doesn't move the 1665 01:40:00,360 --> 01:40:02,880 needle except outside of this handful of guys. 1666 01:40:03,400 --> 01:40:06,440 I think it's it's like the. It's like the A the the latter 1667 01:40:06,440 --> 01:40:08,160 grade system you were talking about before. 1668 01:40:08,440 --> 01:40:11,360 Like an A coach makes a difference and an F coach makes 1669 01:40:11,360 --> 01:40:14,040 a difference. But the difference between, 1670 01:40:14,040 --> 01:40:19,200 like, AB coach and AD coach, it's like it's almost nothing in 1671 01:40:19,200 --> 01:40:21,520 terms of fantasy. That's I'm. 1672 01:40:22,720 --> 01:40:25,400 I'm literally making a mental note of that right now because 1673 01:40:25,400 --> 01:40:28,520 like going into best ball season every year, I have like a Google 1674 01:40:28,520 --> 01:40:31,640 Sheet of stuff that I wanted to remember And I write down and I 1675 01:40:31,640 --> 01:40:35,120 like, go through some kind of some preliminary rankings that I 1676 01:40:35,120 --> 01:40:37,880 do before I I just like aggregate all the rankings that 1677 01:40:37,880 --> 01:40:40,800 I use and then like use that to help me when I'm drafting. 1678 01:40:40,800 --> 01:40:42,960 But I try to get my own thoughts down first. 1679 01:40:42,960 --> 01:40:44,480 I'm definitely putting that in there. 1680 01:40:45,040 --> 01:40:48,080 You know, A's and F's make differences and everything in 1681 01:40:48,080 --> 01:40:49,600 the middle. You can kind of tune out and 1682 01:40:49,600 --> 01:40:57,760 just it's fine for those Yeah I I, well, I, I, I that. 1683 01:40:57,760 --> 01:41:00,720 That's definitely been something where I found like people get 1684 01:41:00,840 --> 01:41:08,560 too, too fixated on, like the stuff in the middle two other 1685 01:41:08,560 --> 01:41:10,320 guys. I wanted to touch on here. 1686 01:41:11,000 --> 01:41:13,360 I I guess there's technically 1/3 I should probably hit on, 1687 01:41:13,360 --> 01:41:16,520 but. Garrett 2 College teammates. 1688 01:41:16,520 --> 01:41:19,880 Garrett Wilson Chris Olave Garrett, Wilson. 1689 01:41:19,880 --> 01:41:23,200 Just from the sheer fact that like, dude. 1690 01:41:23,200 --> 01:41:25,920 Imagine. Like, imagine if it was anyone 1691 01:41:25,920 --> 01:41:28,840 other than Zach Wilson. He's getting insane target 1692 01:41:28,840 --> 01:41:33,960 volume, like he's catching balls that are just like horribly late 1693 01:41:33,960 --> 01:41:37,440 or behind him or sailing over like, I I don't know if you 1694 01:41:37,440 --> 01:41:41,400 watch that, their game, but Zach Wilson sails him. 1695 01:41:41,520 --> 01:41:45,320 It's like way over his head. And the dude just like jumps 3 1696 01:41:45,320 --> 01:41:48,560 feet in the air straight up, and it looks like a no effort kind 1697 01:41:48,560 --> 01:41:50,920 of play. I I had to go back and look at 1698 01:41:50,920 --> 01:41:53,760 that replay. It's like, did he did he jump as 1699 01:41:53,760 --> 01:41:55,920 high as I thought he jumped, or was that like an optical 1700 01:41:55,920 --> 01:41:59,080 illusion? He just like went straight up in 1701 01:41:59,080 --> 01:42:02,120 the air after this entirely errant pass? 1702 01:42:02,800 --> 01:42:05,520 Oh my God, Garrett Wilson is so good. 1703 01:42:06,360 --> 01:42:09,560 If The Jets have any kind of quarterback situation next 1704 01:42:09,560 --> 01:42:12,640 season, that's not Zach Wilson. You can catch me drafting 1705 01:42:12,640 --> 01:42:17,000 Garrett Wilson probably top six, top seven overall. 1706 01:42:17,120 --> 01:42:20,560 Like if Garrett Wilson's going in the second round, I'll be 1707 01:42:20,560 --> 01:42:22,480 100%. Garrett Wilson is what I'll say. 1708 01:42:22,600 --> 01:42:26,480 Literally, I will be 100%. Don't don't care. 1709 01:42:26,560 --> 01:42:29,360 I'm down if he's in the second round next year. 1710 01:42:29,480 --> 01:42:31,960 If he's in the second next year, I'm. 100% Garrett Wilson. 1711 01:42:34,960 --> 01:42:39,600 And and and that's on the sort of the idea that Zach Wilson 1712 01:42:39,600 --> 01:42:43,040 being the quarterback next year or anybody as bad as Zach Wilson 1713 01:42:43,040 --> 01:42:49,240 is just like a not a, just not a viable It it it cannot be true. 1714 01:42:49,680 --> 01:42:51,880 Yeah, I mean it. Like, for example, if we're 1715 01:42:51,880 --> 01:42:55,040 rolling into next season, it's like Aaron Rodgers retired and 1716 01:42:55,040 --> 01:42:57,640 The Jets say they're sticking with Zach Wilson, then I'm not 1717 01:42:57,640 --> 01:43:00,640 100% Garrett Wilson, to be perfectly clear like. 1718 01:43:01,160 --> 01:43:05,120 But if it's anyone, if it's anyone whatsoever, that is the 1719 01:43:05,120 --> 01:43:08,200 quarterback. That's it all like if if Jacoby 1720 01:43:08,200 --> 01:43:12,040 Brissette is the quarterback next year, I'm 100% Garrett 1721 01:43:12,040 --> 01:43:16,680 Wilson in round two. The the other guy, Chris Olave, 1722 01:43:16,800 --> 01:43:22,680 also got AI hate to to trash on Derek Carr, 'cause I I think he 1723 01:43:22,680 --> 01:43:26,320 gets a lot of unfair hate. But man, Jameis Winston coming 1724 01:43:26,320 --> 01:43:29,080 in and all of a sudden like making Chris Olave look like a 1725 01:43:29,080 --> 01:43:33,960 real boy again. Does does kind of bode poorly 1726 01:43:33,960 --> 01:43:37,600 for Derek Carr so well? In fairness, James is like a 1727 01:43:37,600 --> 01:43:42,120 fantasy kingmaker, that's where. Like he he's so aggressive. 1728 01:43:42,120 --> 01:43:45,640 He's so willing to throw the ball down the field and over and 1729 01:43:45,640 --> 01:43:51,520 over and over again that he he does, he does make players look 1730 01:43:51,520 --> 01:43:55,160 very good if the problem is when when he chose the the, the tree 1731 01:43:55,160 --> 01:43:57,720 interceptions in a game and and then the coaches don't trust him 1732 01:43:57,720 --> 01:44:02,200 and and whatnot but. Did you see his target to 1733 01:44:02,200 --> 01:44:06,560 Rashid, Shahid And I want to say there were three defenders in 1734 01:44:06,560 --> 01:44:10,080 immediate proximity and I saw the one where he chewed all the 1735 01:44:10,080 --> 01:44:13,120 way across the field to like AT Perry. 1736 01:44:13,240 --> 01:44:15,680 No, that was another that was. Another sick one that was like 1737 01:44:15,960 --> 01:44:19,720 never do this, but sick play James like no. 1738 01:44:19,720 --> 01:44:21,640 The Rashid Shahid one was an interception. 1739 01:44:21,640 --> 01:44:25,240 It was like. That is the I I've seen Jameis 1740 01:44:25,280 --> 01:44:27,480 do that a million times in a Bucks uniform. 1741 01:44:27,480 --> 01:44:30,000 That's what I needed. Inject that shit straight into 1742 01:44:30,000 --> 01:44:33,600 my veins like I'm here for Jameis Winston making God awful 1743 01:44:33,600 --> 01:44:37,960 decisions, But it's very fun to watch he. 1744 01:44:37,960 --> 01:44:39,800 Is a he? Is he is one of those players 1745 01:44:39,800 --> 01:44:47,160 that makes football fun? Yeah, but definitely it's a 1746 01:44:47,160 --> 01:44:51,480 little concerning that Olave looks so good with Jameis out 1747 01:44:51,480 --> 01:44:54,040 there. But at the same time do do want 1748 01:44:54,040 --> 01:44:57,480 to be a little bit cautious that Jameis is like he he is. 1749 01:44:57,480 --> 01:45:01,880 He's a true kingmaker and I really hope for oh lave's sake 1750 01:45:01,880 --> 01:45:04,720 that Jameis plays a lot more games throughout the year. 1751 01:45:04,720 --> 01:45:09,800 But. I I to me it it's maybe a small 1752 01:45:09,800 --> 01:45:12,520 negative on on car, but not not a huge one. 1753 01:45:14,200 --> 01:45:18,040 OK, those were all the Oh my last. 1754 01:45:18,040 --> 01:45:19,840 I'm going to hit you with the two second blurb, Michael 1755 01:45:19,840 --> 01:45:22,480 Pittman. Just. 1756 01:45:22,520 --> 01:45:25,120 Incredible role. Tons of volume, looks really 1757 01:45:25,120 --> 01:45:27,560 good. Downs was out this week and so 1758 01:45:27,560 --> 01:45:30,080 Michael Pittman just got it all or he wasn't out, but he was 1759 01:45:30,080 --> 01:45:33,920 pretty limited with the knee he he got you know a little bit of 1760 01:45:33,920 --> 01:45:36,720 work but nowhere near what he he typically would get. 1761 01:45:37,320 --> 01:45:41,280 So Pittman is just like going to forever be in that echelon of 1762 01:45:41,280 --> 01:45:46,840 like I would probably say like you know, match up agnostic. 1763 01:45:46,840 --> 01:45:49,040 I'm looking at him as like, slightly better than Chris 1764 01:45:49,040 --> 01:45:53,280 Godwin. Like probably in you know square 1765 01:45:53,280 --> 01:45:56,520 squarely in, I mean shoot, it's just the guys that he's around 1766 01:45:56,520 --> 01:45:59,600 on the chart he's like right in that Christian Kirk probably 1767 01:45:59,600 --> 01:46:03,520 like a little bit lighter than Christian Kirk you know, better 1768 01:46:03,520 --> 01:46:08,840 than Jacoby Myers type range of player, but very, very usable 1769 01:46:08,840 --> 01:46:11,960 for fantasy. Yeah, yeah, agreed. 1770 01:46:11,960 --> 01:46:16,080 Where he's he's definitely Aaron the consistently high target 1771 01:46:16,080 --> 01:46:20,200 share and that like last in week 10 his target per out run was 1772 01:46:20,200 --> 01:46:23,320 like 42%. No that's that's not nowhere 1773 01:46:23,320 --> 01:46:33,120 near his his season average which is 25% but that's a pretty 1774 01:46:33,120 --> 01:46:35,400 healthy pretty strong targets per out run. 1775 01:46:35,400 --> 01:46:39,560 He is like he's definitely he definitely dominates targets for 1776 01:46:39,560 --> 01:46:43,520 sure and and I think I don't I think we should be keeping that 1777 01:46:43,520 --> 01:46:48,280 in mind in future years maybe I I want to be a little bit 1778 01:46:48,280 --> 01:46:51,200 conscious on the price but should. 1779 01:46:51,280 --> 01:46:54,480 Should be keeping that in mind that he is a target dominator, 1780 01:46:55,480 --> 01:46:57,840 yeah? I as we as we roll to the next 1781 01:46:57,840 --> 01:47:00,760 chart here I'll just say with the hindsight of seeing how this 1782 01:47:00,760 --> 01:47:04,760 season played out and what we saw from Anthony Richardson as a 1783 01:47:04,760 --> 01:47:09,040 passer the the Michael Pittman price just wasn't correct. 1784 01:47:09,080 --> 01:47:11,120 This, you know, like it was way too low. 1785 01:47:11,120 --> 01:47:15,800 We were, the market was. Over correcting for the risk of 1786 01:47:15,880 --> 01:47:19,800 Anthony Richardson being a bad passer and undervaluing how good 1787 01:47:19,800 --> 01:47:22,520 the role was for Pittman. And so that's just something 1788 01:47:22,520 --> 01:47:26,120 that I want to remember for next season that if if I'm getting 1789 01:47:26,120 --> 01:47:30,080 you know, like seventh round Michael Pittman, that's that's 1790 01:47:30,080 --> 01:47:33,760 one where I got to be willing to just say hey this it's too many 1791 01:47:33,760 --> 01:47:35,280 targets. Like I'm just going to take it. 1792 01:47:37,080 --> 01:47:39,440 Right. Yeah, Yeah, definitely. 1793 01:47:40,160 --> 01:47:43,400 And and and and especially in an environment where order 1794 01:47:43,800 --> 01:47:48,320 receivers are getting priced up, if if he's not getting that same 1795 01:47:48,320 --> 01:47:54,160 treatment, it makes a lot more sense to take them so. 1796 01:47:54,160 --> 01:47:58,520 Yeah, like you alluded to, let's move on to the Tyree Kill chart. 1797 01:48:00,600 --> 01:48:04,000 Yeah, same way, same effect that we had on the last chart, but 1798 01:48:04,480 --> 01:48:08,440 the exact opposite where he's just far and away to the top and 1799 01:48:08,440 --> 01:48:11,440 right. So tyree kill is the. 1800 01:48:11,480 --> 01:48:16,400 Inverse Jalen Naylor, pretty much, pretty much like Jalen 1801 01:48:16,400 --> 01:48:22,200 Nagar had an, let's say Naylor, I should say, and he had one 1802 01:48:22,200 --> 01:48:27,080 target for for three air yards. Tyree Kill has like a million 1803 01:48:27,080 --> 01:48:30,160 targets for a billionaire Yards and those. 1804 01:48:30,160 --> 01:48:31,680 I believe those numbers are accurate. 1805 01:48:31,680 --> 01:48:33,360 A million, right? I I counted. 1806 01:48:33,680 --> 01:48:37,600 Yeah. The the guys on this chart I 1807 01:48:37,600 --> 01:48:42,280 mean like so tank Dell graduate from the the backups wide 1808 01:48:42,280 --> 01:48:44,880 receiver chart of the low low route rate chart. 1809 01:48:44,880 --> 01:48:49,320 Guys from earlier in the season truly looking like a, you know, 1810 01:48:49,760 --> 01:48:53,520 breakout, you know, rookie wide receiver looking awesome. 1811 01:48:54,000 --> 01:48:57,520 Earned just an insane amount of volume with Nico Collins out 1812 01:48:57,520 --> 01:49:00,600 this last week. Wasn't able to convert it into 1813 01:49:00,680 --> 01:49:03,400 quite as an impressive if if I told you that he was going to 1814 01:49:03,400 --> 01:49:06,640 get 15 targets, you'd be like, Oh my God, did Tank Dell go for 1815 01:49:06,880 --> 01:49:09,640 40? But he he, you know, a lot of 1816 01:49:09,640 --> 01:49:12,680 them just narrow misses. Wasn't able to hook up. 1817 01:49:14,000 --> 01:49:16,800 But you gotta you know if you have Tank Dell and Best Ball, 1818 01:49:16,800 --> 01:49:18,960 congratulations as a fantastic pick. 1819 01:49:19,480 --> 01:49:22,160 I'm my mental note that I'm making on. 1820 01:49:23,000 --> 01:49:27,560 Tankdel small wide receivers and and rookie wide receivers in 1821 01:49:27,560 --> 01:49:31,600 general is the market isn't great at pricing. 1822 01:49:31,600 --> 01:49:36,360 These rookie wide receivers that that end up getting opportunity 1823 01:49:36,360 --> 01:49:43,240 on their teams like Pukanakua, Tankdel you know and extending 1824 01:49:43,240 --> 01:49:48,680 it to guys like for example Josh Downs like also is going really 1825 01:49:48,680 --> 01:49:51,880 late. Cedric Tillman going undrafted. 1826 01:49:52,320 --> 01:49:55,800 And there in that instance, you had like too many guys ahead of 1827 01:49:55,800 --> 01:49:58,400 Cedric Tillman, which kind of makes sense why he was going so 1828 01:49:58,400 --> 01:50:01,120 late. But for guys like Tank Dell, 1829 01:50:01,120 --> 01:50:04,480 where it's I think with Tank Dell, it was an ambiguous wide 1830 01:50:04,480 --> 01:50:08,040 receiver core, just like you. You probably could argue that 1831 01:50:08,040 --> 01:50:10,640 for the Browns, too. So really what I'm trying to get 1832 01:50:10,640 --> 01:50:15,080 to is #1. The upside of these guys is so 1833 01:50:15,080 --> 01:50:19,200 asymmetric for the impact it can have on teams and basketball. 1834 01:50:19,800 --> 01:50:24,760 That missing on them is so painful that you really want to. 1835 01:50:24,800 --> 01:50:29,440 It's so, so costly to miss out on that huge boost that you can 1836 01:50:29,440 --> 01:50:33,480 get from a hit like a tank Del or a puka that you really should 1837 01:50:33,480 --> 01:50:38,840 make sure diversifying stinks when it leads to you being off 1838 01:50:38,960 --> 01:50:42,840 of like Oh my God, I could have had 30% puka but instead I split 1839 01:50:42,840 --> 01:50:45,760 it between some puka and some Tank Del and some Cedric 1840 01:50:45,760 --> 01:50:48,040 Tillman. And some Josh Downs, right, like 1841 01:50:48,240 --> 01:50:52,280 you're sad you diversified then. But like let me just you know, 1842 01:50:52,320 --> 01:50:56,320 for for the other side of the coin where I didn't get to as 1843 01:50:56,320 --> 01:50:59,880 much Puka, you know, I got to a lot of Tutu instead. 1844 01:50:59,880 --> 01:51:03,440 I didn't get to as much tank Dell, I got to Robert Woods 1845 01:51:03,440 --> 01:51:05,840 instead. And it's like you really should 1846 01:51:05,840 --> 01:51:09,720 just be willing to, you need to mix in these rookies that are 1847 01:51:09,720 --> 01:51:12,440 free, right? Because the upside is so 1848 01:51:12,440 --> 01:51:16,520 asymmetric. Three and cheap Day 2 rookie 1849 01:51:16,520 --> 01:51:18,800 receivers. Yeah they're they're. 1850 01:51:19,880 --> 01:51:21,280 Yeah. You just got to take him like 1851 01:51:21,440 --> 01:51:22,520 I'm in Ross St. Brown. 1852 01:51:22,520 --> 01:51:29,280 He was like the classic like going free and so cheap even in 1853 01:51:29,280 --> 01:51:33,800 in an environment when receivers were were going higher that year 1854 01:51:34,360 --> 01:51:37,080 already and same same with Tankedo. 1855 01:51:37,760 --> 01:51:41,080 Yeah, and like. Marvin Mims, We all got so out 1856 01:51:41,080 --> 01:51:43,320 over our skis and excited for Marvin Mims. 1857 01:51:44,080 --> 01:51:46,440 Which we'll get to more on the next chart I guess. 1858 01:51:46,440 --> 01:51:50,640 But you know we we were drafting him with so much more confidence 1859 01:51:50,640 --> 01:51:54,160 than we were drafting Tank Dell or or Josh Towns or Puka, right. 1860 01:51:54,560 --> 01:51:57,920 And it's my, my other thing that I was trying to to play off the 1861 01:51:57,920 --> 01:52:02,040 Tank Dell thing is in the year that Devonta Smith came out, 1862 01:52:02,560 --> 01:52:05,680 this was like early enough in the transition of the league 1863 01:52:05,680 --> 01:52:08,600 where like you know the the way that they were calling pass 1864 01:52:08,600 --> 01:52:12,240 interference had had changed at that point for a couple years 1865 01:52:12,240 --> 01:52:13,960 but. I still was in. 1866 01:52:14,000 --> 01:52:18,040 My brain was broken to. I need the big bodied alpha wide 1867 01:52:18,040 --> 01:52:20,080 receivers. Where's the tiny man? 1868 01:52:20,400 --> 01:52:21,400 Yeah. Where's the two? 1869 01:52:21,400 --> 01:52:24,000 120 pound alpha. That's going to throw guys 1870 01:52:24,000 --> 01:52:26,080 around. I need them to box guys out in 1871 01:52:26,080 --> 01:52:27,960 the end zone. And I for that reason I was 1872 01:52:27,960 --> 01:52:30,080 like, I'm out on Devonta Smith. He's too small. 1873 01:52:30,320 --> 01:52:33,400 It's just not going to work in the league and now we've got 1874 01:52:33,640 --> 01:52:36,560 such a track record that the market's probably going to have 1875 01:52:36,560 --> 01:52:39,680 been caught up to this. So the edge is going to diminish 1876 01:52:39,680 --> 01:52:42,360 but. Just I I'm never going to talk 1877 01:52:42,360 --> 01:52:45,360 myself out of a guy because he's too small anymore. 1878 01:52:45,360 --> 01:52:47,440 Because I did the same thing with Tank Dell. 1879 01:52:47,440 --> 01:52:49,800 It's like he's too small. He's not going to win. 1880 01:52:49,800 --> 01:52:53,200 I know that I was wrong about Devonta Smith for that, but Tank 1881 01:52:53,200 --> 01:52:56,280 Dell's even smaller than Devonta Smith, so it has to be true this 1882 01:52:56,280 --> 01:52:59,960 time that it's not a good idea, but just just throw the size 1883 01:52:59,960 --> 01:53:01,920 shit out the window. For wide receiver, it doesn't 1884 01:53:01,920 --> 01:53:05,080 matter anymore. You know, if a guy, if a guy can 1885 01:53:05,080 --> 01:53:08,560 play, he can play. But just needed to get that 1886 01:53:08,560 --> 01:53:12,760 rambling off my chest there. Yeah, I I think a a way to think 1887 01:53:12,760 --> 01:53:17,720 about it is that as the average size goes down like for example 1888 01:53:17,720 --> 01:53:24,640 Jalen Waddell's 185, Garrett Wilson 192 and like those aren't 1889 01:53:24,640 --> 01:53:26,800 receivers that we think of as small anymore. 1890 01:53:27,200 --> 01:53:30,440 If like that's just like an average normal size receiver 1891 01:53:31,040 --> 01:53:37,360 then like the outlier bottom of the bottom of that has to be 1892 01:53:37,360 --> 01:53:41,120 lower too. Like it used to be 185 like was 1893 01:53:41,120 --> 01:53:44,200 the small receiver and and they'd be the outlier if they 1894 01:53:44,200 --> 01:53:46,360 made it. But no that's like that's like a 1895 01:53:46,360 --> 01:53:50,920 normal size like even Jamar Chase only £200 like obviously 1896 01:53:50,920 --> 01:53:55,360 that's a big man but like he he, I I I wouldn't have taught him 1897 01:53:55,360 --> 01:53:58,640 as like that that I'm surprised by how low that number is and 1898 01:53:59,280 --> 01:54:02,520 definitely yeah something to keep in mind that the this the 1899 01:54:02,760 --> 01:54:06,040 receiver size are coming down yeah, yeah. 1900 01:54:06,320 --> 01:54:11,840 Very, very good. Point there other guys on this 1901 01:54:11,840 --> 01:54:16,440 chart return of Debo, he had. He had some opportunities in the 1902 01:54:16,440 --> 01:54:21,280 rushing game too that you know, you like to see just just for 1903 01:54:21,280 --> 01:54:23,360 his overall upside. It's not that the rushing 1904 01:54:23,360 --> 01:54:26,720 touches themselves are inherently all that valuable. 1905 01:54:26,720 --> 01:54:30,280 But the way I look at it with Debo is he he's kind of like 1906 01:54:31,000 --> 01:54:34,000 Debo's just a home run hitter in the same way that, like a Breeze 1907 01:54:34,000 --> 01:54:36,280 hauler, a Kenneth Walker is a home run hitter right? 1908 01:54:36,280 --> 01:54:39,680 Where you're just like. I just want the the chances at 1909 01:54:39,680 --> 01:54:44,200 like the big play to explode and and break the slate and so Debo 1910 01:54:44,200 --> 01:54:46,520 being involved in the rushing game is nice just 'cause you 1911 01:54:46,520 --> 01:54:49,160 you're like, hey that's another chance at a big breakaway 1912 01:54:49,160 --> 01:54:54,760 touchdown type play. Jordan Addison, I don't know if 1913 01:54:54,760 --> 01:54:58,000 you watched the all of the Minnesota game. 1914 01:54:58,640 --> 01:55:02,600 He just he looks for real, man. Like I know I know want to say 1915 01:55:02,600 --> 01:55:04,440 his open score isn't the greatest. 1916 01:55:04,440 --> 01:55:06,360 There's some other underlying metrics that like. 1917 01:55:07,200 --> 01:55:10,960 Don't don't think that he don't look at him so so favorably. 1918 01:55:10,960 --> 01:55:15,640 Like I I would say I'm like, I I actually don't pay a lot of 1919 01:55:15,640 --> 01:55:19,560 attention to those advanced metric stuff because I saw that 1920 01:55:19,960 --> 01:55:22,560 for example, what's his name? Tyree. 1921 01:55:22,560 --> 01:55:25,840 Kill his yards after the catch score is like low. 1922 01:55:26,040 --> 01:55:28,440 And they're like, oh, it's because when he catches the ball 1923 01:55:28,840 --> 01:55:31,720 he's expected to go like 50 yards to the house And then 1924 01:55:31,720 --> 01:55:33,400 like, oh, what about his open score? 1925 01:55:33,640 --> 01:55:37,440 Oh, that's not great either. OK, well part of I. 1926 01:55:37,440 --> 01:55:41,320 Know I I read an explanation on those models and part of it was 1927 01:55:41,320 --> 01:55:45,520 the distance to so they're using player coordinate data and so 1928 01:55:45,520 --> 01:55:50,400 one of the features in the model is distance between nearest 1929 01:55:50,400 --> 01:55:55,600 defender and so with a player like Tyree kill where there's 1930 01:55:55,600 --> 01:55:58,400 shit happening. In a Tyree kill play, that 1931 01:55:58,400 --> 01:56:01,720 doesn't happen anywhere. It's like the model is fit for 1932 01:56:01,720 --> 01:56:05,280 all this normal stuff happening and then Tyree kills like and I 1933 01:56:05,280 --> 01:56:09,400 have 28 yards of separation between me and the next closest 1934 01:56:09,400 --> 01:56:13,000 guy on the field. And so yeah, it's just models 1935 01:56:13,000 --> 01:56:17,120 are every model is wrong, right? It's just like how wrong is the 1936 01:56:17,120 --> 01:56:21,360 model and so? What you can do as an analyst is 1937 01:56:21,360 --> 01:56:25,640 find those areas of fragility or weakness in the model and add 1938 01:56:25,640 --> 01:56:29,240 context to that with like understanding what's going on 1939 01:56:29,240 --> 01:56:32,480 here And and I think it's important to dig into the model, 1940 01:56:32,480 --> 01:56:36,800 see what the features are, learn the weaknesses and fragilities 1941 01:56:37,120 --> 01:56:40,400 and then you can have those like I think open score can be really 1942 01:56:40,400 --> 01:56:44,680 valuable when you figure out where the flaws are in that 1943 01:56:44,680 --> 01:56:47,720 model and how to properly apply it and so. 1944 01:56:48,120 --> 01:56:51,200 I don't know exactly why Jordan Addison is scoring poorly in 1945 01:56:51,200 --> 01:56:55,560 some of those advanced metrics, but I can just tell you like, I 1946 01:56:55,560 --> 01:56:59,040 loved him as a prospect and it's translating into rookie 1947 01:56:59,040 --> 01:57:04,880 production and the dude just looks like he can play early. 1948 01:57:05,080 --> 01:57:07,480 I'm calling my shot early next season. 1949 01:57:07,760 --> 01:57:11,000 Jordan Addison's efficient price as a best ball pick is going to 1950 01:57:11,000 --> 01:57:14,600 be late fourth round, and if he's going any later than that, 1951 01:57:14,600 --> 01:57:19,120 I'll have a shit load of them. I think, I think that's pretty 1952 01:57:19,120 --> 01:57:23,440 fair, 'cause he he wasn't going that much later than that this 1953 01:57:23,440 --> 01:57:25,560 year, right? He was like 7th. 1954 01:57:25,560 --> 01:57:30,000 Round I want to say 7th, 8th. So, right, I guess, I guess that 1955 01:57:30,000 --> 01:57:33,720 and that's what the rookie with the the sort of like rookie risk 1956 01:57:33,720 --> 01:57:38,280 where we haven't seen him in playing the NFL and now we have 1957 01:57:38,560 --> 01:57:41,960 and he's obviously very good. So I I think that I think that's 1958 01:57:41,960 --> 01:57:44,440 very reasonable. So you're saying my take wasn't 1959 01:57:44,440 --> 01:57:45,760 hot? Enough, I should have said third 1960 01:57:45,760 --> 01:57:47,920 round. Not your your your yeah your 1961 01:57:47,920 --> 01:57:49,760 your take was not hot. I gotta. 1962 01:57:49,800 --> 01:57:51,360 I'm sorry to tell you. I got. 1963 01:57:51,400 --> 01:57:54,480 I gotta learn how to. Spice these takes up, But then 1964 01:57:54,480 --> 01:57:57,760 again I I react to news very aggressively sometimes too 1965 01:57:57,760 --> 01:58:00,760 aggressively. So it it it may not be a it's 1966 01:58:00,760 --> 01:58:04,040 probably not, like, hot to me. But maybe to someone who's like, 1967 01:58:04,560 --> 01:58:07,720 oh, actually, like, maybe to somebody else it is. 1968 01:58:09,000 --> 01:58:12,080 All right, Draco, we have. A prayer of coming in under two 1969 01:58:12,080 --> 01:58:14,280 hours. And this last chart has like 1970 01:58:14,280 --> 01:58:16,560 nothing on it. It's a wasteland. 1971 01:58:16,560 --> 01:58:18,920 So let's hit this last wide receiver chart. 1972 01:58:19,480 --> 01:58:23,840 There's only, there's really only like 2 guys on here that 1973 01:58:23,840 --> 01:58:27,600 are at all interesting. And and you know what I realized 1974 01:58:27,600 --> 01:58:29,920 the one that's the most interesting to me isn't even on 1975 01:58:29,920 --> 01:58:32,240 the chart. But Jayden Reid was interesting. 1976 01:58:32,240 --> 01:58:35,600 I actually, believe it or not, had a Jayden Reid share in the 1977 01:58:35,600 --> 01:58:38,880 dog bowl this last week. And I I want to say that was a 1978 01:58:38,880 --> 01:58:43,000 team where I had like four of the six pieces that I needed to 1979 01:58:43,360 --> 01:58:48,320 to be nutted and I think I had like a Deontay Johnson for 2.2 1980 01:58:48,320 --> 01:58:51,200 on it that sunk it. But would have been so fun to 1981 01:58:51,240 --> 01:58:53,520 win another Miami ticket with Jayden Reid on there. 1982 01:58:53,840 --> 01:58:56,520 He's the only guy that I'm seeing on this chart where I'm 1983 01:58:56,520 --> 01:58:58,960 like that's a guy and and Rashi Rice you've talked about 1984 01:58:58,960 --> 01:59:03,320 obviously already before but he he's Jayden Reid is a guy that 1985 01:59:03,320 --> 01:59:06,120 there's potential for him to graduate in my opinion and he 1986 01:59:06,120 --> 01:59:09,200 looks he looks good. I I wouldn't be surprised at all 1987 01:59:09,560 --> 01:59:12,680 if by next season Jayden Reid is the best wide receiver on the 1988 01:59:12,680 --> 01:59:15,800 Packers and I That's not a hot take. 1989 01:59:15,800 --> 01:59:20,360 That's just the facts, right? And yeah, definitely definitely 1990 01:59:20,400 --> 01:59:24,520 enjoyed watching Jayden Reid play well another day to sort of 1991 01:59:24,520 --> 01:59:29,920 pick where he wanted to take some shots on with how cheap he 1992 01:59:29,920 --> 01:59:36,080 was and I I can't even where's is where's Marvin Mims on this 1993 01:59:36,080 --> 01:59:37,720 chart He doesn't. He doesn't even. 1994 01:59:37,720 --> 01:59:40,440 Qualify man because he doesn't run enough routes. 1995 01:59:40,440 --> 01:59:45,520 So like we I feel like the whole world was on the they're coming 1996 01:59:45,520 --> 01:59:47,440 out of bye week. Sean Payton did some self 1997 01:59:47,440 --> 01:59:49,400 scouting. Marvin Mims is going to get some 1998 01:59:49,400 --> 01:59:54,600 run this week narrative. And then he looks awesome, 1999 01:59:54,600 --> 01:59:56,200 returning kicks and returning punts. 2000 01:59:56,200 --> 01:59:59,600 He's like breaking tackles, cutting back across the field on 2001 01:59:59,600 --> 02:00:02,520 that kick return where he cut it back across the field and broke 2002 02:00:02,520 --> 02:00:05,200 multiple tackles. I was waiting for him to get 2003 02:00:05,200 --> 02:00:07,680 caught from behind when he was running horizontal. 2004 02:00:08,280 --> 02:00:09,600 Oh yeah, and there's a guy running. 2005 02:00:09,600 --> 02:00:11,720 After him and like he was holding the ball normally. 2006 02:00:11,720 --> 02:00:13,480 So it's like, please don't fumble, please. 2007 02:00:13,480 --> 02:00:15,840 And he keeps. I I'm like he's got to be going 2008 02:00:15,840 --> 02:00:18,040 slower. He just broke like 3 tackles, 2009 02:00:18,040 --> 02:00:20,920 like he's gonna get caught from behind here and he just refuses 2010 02:00:20,920 --> 02:00:24,320 to get caught from behind, man. Like the kid is electric free 2011 02:00:24,320 --> 02:00:27,360 Marvin Mims. Free Marvin Mims. 2012 02:00:28,240 --> 02:00:31,040 I agree, This is why This is why this is. 2013 02:00:32,080 --> 02:00:33,800 Wait, no. That is This is why. 2014 02:00:34,080 --> 02:00:36,680 This is why I'm hot. I'm hot 'cause I'm flat. 2015 02:00:36,680 --> 02:00:37,440 You. Ain't 'cause you. 2016 02:00:38,840 --> 02:00:41,800 This is why we This is why. We. 2017 02:00:43,960 --> 02:00:47,720 This is why we This is why we.