Week 10 is behind us. We're officially into the double
digit weeks of the NFL season and many thought Week 10 would
be a lower scoring fantasy affair with some of the best
fantasy offenses like the Chiefs, Dolphins and Eagles on
by. But people forgot about the true
number one overall quarterback in the NFL, Pat Fryer, Helmo.
This is why This is why I'm hot Anita hand job.
Fix your sight, Jamar, and also play Chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point. You're right.
I'm sorry. I knew what you were going to
say there, and I couldn't let it stand.
I'm. I'm guessing that that was your
way of telling me the cold open was going a little too long
there. No, that was.
I know you're going to talk about Doc Prescott.
I was going to say CJ Stroud. Oh, OK.
So I prematurely cut you off. No, CJ Stroud is him.
Man, that was that was probably one of my the the games I've
enjoyed watching the most. I mean, it's it's been 2 weeks
now where I I'm just like watching CJ Stroud.
I'm like, this dude is such a cool customer.
Like, I feel like you see this with lots of young quarterbacks
or like they look good and then something happens that kind of
shakes them and it's just like the wheels immediately fall off.
Like Tyson Bajent sticks in my mind as like, I I want to say it
was 2 weeks ago. He's having a good start to the
game. And then just one bad thing
happened. It was like the dude forgot.
Not only did you forget how to play quarterback, like he forgot
how to like walk or like use his body as a human like it.
Sent him into a spiral, Yeah, absolutely not a not.
Not happen to CJ Stroud, No CJ Stroud.
Cool as could be so. Before before we get into it, I
do notice a new background. Away with the old background.
And do you want to talk about that at all, I mean I I guess I
can briefly touch on it. So my, my content will not be
over at Spike week anymore, don't have anything definitive
yet. I mean I do have my sub stack,
but if you, if you subscribe over there, I really don't plan
on putting out a ton of written content over the next few
months. I mean if you want to catch
anything that I decide to share, it'll probably be on there and I
I may do something else, but I'll, I'll certainly keep the
people posted on that front. All right, fair enough, fair
enough. And so let's let's get into
where our first chart here I'm going to add it to stage and
this is our QB passing efficiency and and rushing
production chart and so on the horizontal axis we've got.
Adjusted yards per tent, which is like normal yards per tent
but rewards touchdowns and punishes interceptions.
And then vertical axis is touchdown rate and size of the
bubble corresponds to their rushing yards per game.
And I guess what what sort of standard?
I I guess we say this every week.
This chart is it's pretty stable, right?
I don't see too much movement here.
But I do notice that Lamar Jackson, his sort of like run
bad in terms of fantasy production, definitely stands
out as a sort of sore tone where you can see he's obviously
playing really well but just has not been getting the touchdowns
that you'd expect with his yardage production.
Yeah, I think. I think what we need at this
point from Lamar to have, like, truly elite fantasy games is we
got to. We got to run into some really
stout run defenses that just refuse to give up those goal
line touchdowns because like Justice Hill had a rushing
touchdown get called back on a hold, Gus Edwards then punched
in the rushing touchdown. And it's not that Lamar's not
throwing touchdowns. It's just that the offense is
getting enough touchdowns siphoned away from the running
game that Lamar's not delivering those big weeks as consistently
as you would want him to. I still you know he he's pretty
much perennially a good play in fantasy.
It's just you know all all you need is that touchdown variance
to go his way. There is a new a new challenger
approaches on the QB chart. We've got Kyler Murray back from
his first game and you know the the rushing wasn't, you know,
quite as high as like Lamar's for example.
But the guy's you know playing his first NFL game in a year
coming off ACL and he looks pretty good and I'm actually,
I'm really interested in that match up as a whole this week.
You know we see CJ Stroud, we we talked about how prolific he's
been so far in his young career and we saw it with Joe Burrow.
Where Stroud is, is definitely good enough to where he's going
to push the other quarterback to have to throw more and you know
create these fantasy friendly environments.
So I'm pretty interested in Kyler with one week to shake the
rust off now against CJ Stroud in a Dome, I think that's a
really interesting match up this week and both those guys are,
you know, reasonably cheap in the different formats, you know,
be it DFS or be it you know, at battle, Royale's on underdog.
So I I kind of like that game. And and obviously it it's sort
of obvious but worth pointing out caller Murray 0% touchdown
rate in A1 game sample size like he it looks it really looks like
he's in the bottom lower section of this chart but he he got you
got to cut him some slack on that touchdown rate I I did I I
did see that he had he had a couple of big plays where he was
and and I think he had one run where he's clocked at a very
high Max speed. And I I was sort of surprised by
that given the ACL return. I thought that the my my
expectation was that the rushing stuff was going to be severely
limited in the first couple of games back.
But that that doesn't seem to be the case.
It it, it definitely feels like rushing production is still very
much on the table for Caller Murray and the rest of the way,
which has has got to be. I think that's a big part of his
fantasy value, so. If you the way I I normally
drafted them this offseason was sort of late in superfax drafts,
so I'm definitely encouraged by that.
Yeah, the way I was normally drafting Kyler this offseason
was that I was not. So it it was seeing him look so
good when he came back. And now I'm, you know, I'm
looking at these Mac Jones teams where it's like, man, I probably
could have had Kyler at similar prices to Mac Jones and a lot of
these drafts. And like, yeah, Mac Jones
delivered maybe two weeks for me where I plugged his score and
was really happy to have him. But definitely makes you think
about like the upside of the quarterback.
And I know that Pat talked about this this summer of like you
know, back loading, waiting the back end of the season heavier,
which is why he was lower on Sam Howell.
But it really, you know, makes me think about re evaluating how
I looked at a quarterback like Kyler coming off of injury.
Probably not someone I should have zero of, but.
In he was definitely a risk on player where you're getting a
severe discount because of an injury, but that injury
introduces risk and. You.
I mean, I feel like for every player we we see coming back off
an injury and they're smashing. Then you you have another player
who the first year back they're not quite as good they're
they're not quite as productive. So I I think it it's worth
keeping in mind that the injury introduces risk and that when
you're taking a, when you're taking on the risk of a
currently injured player, you really do want the discount.
You you you. I think you need to be very
careful about paying like the prior price for somebody who's
injured even if they are sort of projected to be back.
And I'm not talking about like just normal one month injury,
two-month injuries. I'm I'm I'm talking about the
the big injuries like Acls and and and injuries of that
seriousness. Yeah certainly agree with you
there that you want to be price sensitive understand.
I think, I think really it's still this is going to be an
edge in in basketball for a long time, but it's understanding and
appropriately pricing that risk we actually.
Right. That's the whole game, right?
That's the whole we we had a kind of interesting conversation
about this in the Shift Chasing Discord channel earlier this
morning where people were talking about like how much does
a player hurt you in in given rounds if they bust.
And I thought about using the Roster Agnostic Advance rate
metric to kind of put more of a a measurable value on that so
that people understood like hey like I I was DM ING with two
four off suit we were talking about it.
And last year for example the downside deviation for Roster
Agnostic Advance Rate in the through the 1st 2 rounds was
about 6% to your overall advance rate which is pretty massive.
It's like a four year you know you're you're going to really be
hurting your teams. If you had a, if you had a
player that was an underperforming player in those
first two rounds, you're getting crushed.
But whereas if you look at like the later rounds it doesn't do,
it doesn't move the needle at all, you know, So really the the
actual risk of taking Kyler is just the opportunity cost of
like those dart throw players that you'd be taking at the
skill positions like you know wide receiver and running back
later. So that's something that I don't
think people are are appropriately.
So hold on, you're saying that at what round does a bust like
become? Not irrelevant, but at a like,
does it become? Who cares?
So what? Yeah, just being able to put
more of like a quantifiable measure.
OK. OK.
That's still sort of in in the in the works.
That's the question that's currently will be answered.
It's basically, I mean it's done.
The date is out there too if someone wants to do the work for
me. But, but all the roster agnostic
advance rate stats from last year And then you literally can
like, rip my code and and do it again for BBM Four once BBM four
is resolved. Or at least the regular season's
resolved. But if you run that again, get
the roster agnostic advance rate for players and then just bucket
them into like the two round bucketing, you know more.
More or less. That'll be fine.
You know and and then. You can figure out exactly.
And then you can figure out, hey, if you have a player that
busts in the first two rounds, it's about a -, 6% to your
advance rate. It's pretty serious.
You get a guy that busts in, you know, the 12th round, it's like
less than a -, 1% to your advance rates.
Who cares? Like.
And the actual take away dot is. Is don't go for safety in the
late rounds, because what you're actually what your risk of bust
if you bust there it doesn't hurt you.
Not at all. Yeah.
It's literally It does hurt you, but not not in a serious way.
Yeah, the only way it hurt you is that you you picked the wrong
guy for like you had an opportunity.
Cost of This was a roster slot that you'd love to have occupied
by one of these big hits, which can deliver right majorly
outsized boost to advance, right?
But what you actually lose is is so little because everyone
around there is not, you know, it's so rare to get someone.
You didn't get Divana Chan, who's a perfect example, taking
a swing for offences and if he didn't work it didn't hurt you.
But if if he comes back and he give delivers the same sort of
production, well then you you got to have absolutely.
And sorry, I I know I derailed this there a little bit.
No, no, no, I I I don't. I don't think we had too much to
talk about on the quarterback chart.
And I I, I guess I add one other player.
Where Dobbs. Where?
I was gonna say Dobbs too. So keep going and.
So I did I I did notice that his sort of his what you call it.
His yards per attempt continued to actually be quite a bit
higher than than his Arizona numbers, so his he didn't.
He didn't. He only got 1 touchdown, so it
was adjusted. Yards per attempt wasn't great,
but his his actual his unadjusted yards per attempt was
7.9, which he he can sort of see that that puts him very much to
the right hand side of the chart.
And I I I think with the knowledge that he's playing in a
much better system with better supporting cast that to to me
that that definitely qualifies him as sort of like a above
average fantasy player and and and sort of like I feel strongly
that the the skilled position of players around them can can
still perform very well as as they have Yeah agree
wholeheartedly with you there let me hit you with a couple
rapid fire comparisons and obviously we'll we'll ignore the
week to week match up type stuff but just going forward rest of
season I want to ask you who you'd prefer just to roll out in
a fantasy match up Josh Dobbs or Trevor Lawrence.
Oh, I sort of I'm. I think it's this is feels bold
but it does feel like Dobbs. It feels like Dobbs.
I if I were gonna pick a game where Trevor Lawrence has
reminds us who he is game this week looks like a nice spot for
that after getting their just turds push in against the 49ers.
I I kind of feel like this is all narrative based so don't act
on this at all. This is just stupid shit.
But I feel like Doug Peterson might want to come out, get his
quarterback some confidence, Let him.
Let him throw all over the Titans this week.
So it are are the are the Jags on the main main site this week
they are yeah, it's Jags Titans. And you can get you can get
Derrick Henry in the last round of Dog Goal Drafts, by the way.
That feels like an interesting click.
So how? How?
Where does where does the orrans go in the kind of free he's he's
just free. And so that might be an example
of a packet of a pocket passer where they have huge week to
week and sometimes season to season volatility.
Where? If you when you want to when you
want to buy the pocket passes, you want it as cheap as
possible. So honestly, free Trevor
Lawrence sounds pretty enticing. Yeah, it's there's a lot of lot
of good freebies this week. So another Josh Dobbs?
One Josh Dobbs or Gino? Smith Oh yeah, definitely.
Dobbs. I I think Gino is like the
actually the comp for Dobbs this year except Dobbs is he runs
more and and. Yeah, it it's a pretty good
count, except you, you get the rushing upside.
OK, Now we're gonna get into the part of the chart where the guys
have had a little bit better actual performance.
I mean, like Josh Dobbs, Baker Mayfield.
I think you're still Dobbs going away, right?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think so. OK, How about Josh Dobbs or
Justin Herbert? Who?
And? I think, I think that should
just be Justin Herbert. Like, I agree.
I think it's still Herbert there, but it's like, isn't it
funny that that's kind of close? It's kind of close.
If somebody told me that Josh
next week Josh Dobbs outscores Trevor Lawrence, I I I'm just
not shocked at all. Yeah, but yeah, you you have to
go with Lawrence there. I think just just with the towel
and then and pedigree, Yeah, I don't think we need to spend
very much time on the quarterback chart.
We can. We can move on to running backs
now. Yeah, I'm ready to move on as
well. Oh no.
As always I need to zoom out very specific 123% zoom and so
this is our running back snaps and usage chart.
And so we've got rush attempts, routes, pass blocking, and run
blocking. Those snaps as a percentage of
team overall plays and so obviously everybody understands
why rushing attempts are are useful with the with the routes.
The idea is that with all what this sort of very elite pass
catchers that it's sort of random when they get targeted
because it's not it's usually not the play design the the the
check down to the running back is sort of.
They the the real play didn't work so now this is this is our
backup plan and so you just want the guy out there running lots
of routes because that gives you the potential for those high
target games and pass blocking. Just useful to know who's who's
trusted as a pass blocker and and who sort of isn't.
And so I I have like I've been keeping an eye on Kenneth Walker
and Zach Charbonnet for the last couple weeks.
And I'm ready to call the split to be a true 5050 backfield
between, well, in terms of snaps anyway, it's a true 5050
backfield between Kenneth Walker and Chardonnay where Kenneth
Walker is clearly the preferred rusher but Chardonnay is the
preferred passing down back like it just hasn't been.
It's not close as to who's been used, running routes and and
pass blocking. Am am I missing something there?
No. It's really similar actually to
the Derek Henry and Taje Spears split where they're they're on
the field about an equal amount of time.
I feel like spear I I actually would need to check the numbers
on this to verify, but I believe Spears even gets a little bit
more work. It's probably just cause over a
larger sample of weeks Spears has been involved in.
Chardonnay's involvement is a little bit more of a recent
development, but I I you know the Spears Henry Split is
similar to the Chardonnay Walker split.
I think Charbonnay is like a little less valuable for fantasy
than Spears is just he's not getting a ton of touches, but he
is getting a good healthy amount of snaps.
And so that's it's a little frustrating for Kenneth Walker.
I mean so much of Kenneth Walker's value is still in those
those home run type of type of runs right where he's breaking a
big one. I agree.
So I don't think it moves the needle so, so much for Kenneth
Walker in that it, you know maybe it's just making his floor
a little bit worse and Chardonnay.
I still don't feel like if I'm in a season long league like are
you are you ever considering starting Chardonnay like unless
you just have no other options And no, he's not startable.
So just to put some context, over in in the last four games
and this is at the last four games where.
Chardonnay has been on the field 5056% of the time he's been on
the field, and he's got 6.3 expected points per game.
So he he truly is getting a lot of sort of like calorie routes
and I'm not sure how much calories you burn on a running
back route, but it it they're they're mostly not useful snaps,
which it's more of a torn in kind of Walker's side than it
is. Chardonnay getting a real
workload is, is how I would see it.
Well, well, but I think that's that's the best way to summarize
that situation, which is really frustrating.
I was really excited about kind of Walker's start to the year,
but seeing Chardonnay just just sort of command those those
routes and targets in a way that I think just Caps Walker from
delivering a true like sealing season for him.
It it it's frustrating, but is what it is.
Yeah, I this week made me think of the this is or we're going to
have a reference that like 6 people end up getting here.
But it made me think of the Michael Scott quote where he's
like never under any circumstance for any reason do
anything to anybody ever. And I really thought that
applied to drafting running backs.
So never under any circumstance, for any reason, no matter where
you are in the draft, no matter what your team composition is.
Draft of running back for any reason ever.
It is how this week a fantasy made me feel like why.
Why am I spending premium capital on a running back when
when there's just like I can get 30 carries from Devin
Singletary, baby and he's free, right?
Can the contingent upside there for him has obviously been
massive. Yeah.
Yeah, just it feel, and I mean like look at Rashad White as the
second best role in the NFL. And like, this guy was going in
the 9th, 10th round and like does Rashad, no sign of giving
it up. No.
Does he give you anything sexy week over week?
Hell no. He's going to get you 1520
carries on. Terrible efficiency.
Look bad doing it, but he is very adept in the passing like
he can. He's relatively smooth in the
passing game. He's not, you know, the best.
Things since sliced bread but he he's functional in the passing
game and they've got no reason to go away from him and those
touches are super valuable. So I mean yeah Rashad Wide is
just like the safest floor play of all time in my opinion right.
And he is he he I don't he's definitely not a true double
double sort of player I I don't think anyway and but just
because it had the offense is, is is probably just a little bit
too limited and I don't think he has like that big a command on
touches. He definitely has the command on
touches but he is truly important for them in the
receiving and passing game. So he is sort of game script
proof for sure. Yeah.
There's a couple guys up here in this top echelon of the chart
with like elite rules that have spots.
They they've been yucky backs over the last couple weeks where
like the public sentiment is gonna be down on them and it's
reflected in their ADP on underdog.
You know, I I definitely can see this in the market that people
aren't excited to have these guys.
But that's both Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley.
Both elite role like the Giants have nothing to do but put the
ball in Saquon Barkley's belly. And you know they're not.
They probably don't get into a lot of touchdown scoring
situations. But I mean, damn, if you want to
get 20 touches guaranteed, like look no further than Saquon
Barkley and and he goes pretty late.
I mean, you can. You can catch him sliding pretty
far in some dog bowls, so. He's interesting for sure.
And then Josh Jacobs is like one of the clearest examples of I I
I feel like it's hard to even find spots like this in the NFL
to like point this out. But motivated versus unmotivated
players like you look at Josh Jacobs prior to the head
coaching change, it was like, God, this guy is like so
inefficient running the ball. He looks like he has for.
You know, his entire career outside of his super efficient
last season and then these last two weeks you get Josh Jacobs.
Like actually he cares again. And he's like all of a sudden
running hard. And you know, they're they're
talking about they're, they're drawing up the run plays that he
likes. They're going in the meeting
rooms every week and they're like, what?
What did you like? What didn't you like?
And they're keeping all the stuff he liked and getting rid
of the stuff he didn't. And it's like just that, having
that buy in from your players like.
It can really matter. So I'm I'm pretty interested in
a guy with a really good role that seems to Care now and might
you know, truly a a player with that dog in him where it could
matter. You know, we're not talking
about a Jerry Judy type right here.
So my first reaction was to ask you, should Josh Jacobs be
treated differently to Rashad White?
Oh, they're both pretty involved in the passing game.
They both have really, really good workloads.
Wow, that's a really good one. I I would say like Josh Jacobs.
I I think he's just a better talent and and so like, I'm a
little bit more excited there. But I guess the offenses are
both like leave a lot to be desired.
Wow, that I'm sorry I I I didn't mean to put you on the spot.
There no that that's a that's a good call out.
I mean I have you know based on my dog bowl exposures I've been
drafted both of those guys pretty aggressively because they
both go late and I I think they both have right ceilings they
both have a ceiling. Yeah.
So and I mean the way I I would think about it in my head is
that Josh Jacobs is like not sorry Rashad White is 95% Josh
Jacobs that it's I I I don't I guess maybe Josh Jacobs is a
better talent but I don't think he's like it is he truly like
how is he above average is he like much above average.
I I think he's close enough to average that I don't want to
call him like. I don't want to give him too
much of A like a a boost for talent stuff.
No, I I think you're right. It's like, if he is better, how
much does it even matter, you know, 'cause like, I think, I
think running back's the kind of position where it really only
matters at the very extremes. So it's like, yeah, I've got
this guy who might be like AC level talent at the position in
Rashad White and this guy who's like AB level talent in Josh
Jacobs. And it's like.
There's actually no difference to what happens on the, you
know, with their production from a guy from B all the way down to
D you know, you got to be minus. Yeah, you got to be an an F to
to have a matter of the negative or an A for it's a matter of the
positive. So that was a great comparison.
I thank you for, for pointing that one out.
Oh yeah, yeah, enjoy. Enjoy talking about this stuff.
I think it's it's a little bit interesting, right that Alvin
Kamara is sort of like sliding down, sliding down the chart a
little bit. It it is he still caught was it
7 balls this last week was involved in the passing game But
it it does look like they're not as excited about his rushing
contribution. You know they, Jamal Williams
didn't really do anything. Taysom Hill didn't have a ton of
work this week, but in the past couple weeks it really looks
like they're they're more looking at Taysom Hill to do
the. The running game part of that of
that role and Kamara to be more of the passing game part and
Tayson still mixes in some for the passing game as well.
So yeah, Kamara is less attractive to, you know when he
like he was in, he was in the other stratosphere in terms of
like expected points and and like his snap rate and now his
expected point is still good. Last two weeks it's been around
1415, which is still good, still very good for where you drafted
him, but it's it's definitely down.
Yeah, it's it's coming back to Earth.
And yeah, so let's let's think about Kamara with respect to a
couple guys that are near him. Here's an interesting one.
Do you want Alvin Kamara, who does nothing in the run game but
is super involved in the passing game?
Or do you want Tony Pollard, who's been terribly inefficient
and apparently is now phased out of the passing game, more or
less? Which guy do you prefer?
I'm like I I don't I want to pass because I'm so biased.
Like I don't know how I got so biased against Tony Pollard this
year and but I really AM. And I I I sort of think it is
Alvin Kamara because at least at least he's doing stuff.
I I don't I haven't really seen it.
Has you watch all the Cowboys games?
Is is Tony Pollard doing anything?
Every he has like 3 or 4 plays a game where I'm like that's
that's the guy why is that why isn't that happening more.
But for just as you're you're getting the the bias Cowboys
Homer takes. So here it comes.
But I mean I I truly do try to be objective when I am thinking
about the Cowboys because it's it's in the lens of thinking
about fantasy football and I don't want any bias to to fuck
up my process there and so. With respect to Tony, what I'm
what I'm seeing as a non ball knower is the running scheme
looks way shittier than last season.
Like there's a lot of Tony Pollard up the middle, you know
and it's like that's not really where he had success last year.
Like we had success getting Tony Pollard to the edge and using
his speed. So I saw a tweet and today that
was said Tony Pollard runs his percentage of runs that were in
between the the tackles in 20/22 was 42% something like that that
that's not exact, but it's we're in that neighborhood.
And then in 2023, it was like 58% runs between the tackles.
And that that almost seems like, I'm not, I'm probably not saying
this right, a Rorschach test where like some people are like,
OK, see, here it is. This is why he hasn't been
playing well. But then I see it and I'm like,
you know, that fit doesn't feel like different enough for it to
be causing this like dramatic decline in production and
efficiency. Yeah, I I mean, I think it's
probably partially the runs between the tackles and outside
the tackle, but it's also that the runs outside the tackle.
And and this is where not being a ball knower really hinders my
analysis. But someone who is a ball knower
let let me know like, are are you seeing what I'm seeing?
It looks like the run, the run game in general for the Cowboys
is just like there's not these big the the line is no no worse
than it was last season. If anything, it's better.
But last season there were lots of plays where it's like, Oh my
God, it's a 5 foot gap for Tony Pollard to run through.
There's one defender that can make a play on him and the
whole. The whole play hinges on who
wins. Tony Pollard or a linebacker.
It's just a 1V1. If Tony wins, it's a 40 Yard
House call. If the linebacker wins, he still
gashed him for seven yards. You know, and you saw those all
the time last season and that's how he ended up so efficient.
I I see those like. May not even once a game.
Like if I see one of those, I'm like, Oh my God, that looks like
last season, Tony Pollard, like where he's got one guy to beat.
Oh man, just that shoestring tackle saved a big Tony Pollard
touchdown. But I felt like we got that all
the time last season and we're really not seeing it now.
But that's. Yeah, so here's a here's a stop
for you. Tony Pollard in 2023 is Jared
3-4. Contact 1.5 but his but 2022 is
the IP four of contact 1.5 where he made a difference last year
and despite and and I I always thought the yard before
contacting being being low for Pollard was like sort of a a
mini red flag because those small speedy guys and I know
he's not that small and but he he has been like this kind of
speed guy their yards before contact numbers are supposed to
be good because one of the advantages of being fast is that
you're up the field before somebody can make a play and his
where he got his where he got his production was yards after
contact stuff and it was true breaking tackles like he had a
he had a 22% evasion rate where is this year is is evasion rate
is just 10% and his yard's out to contact is went from 3.5 to
2.4 so maybe maybe that's just too much being in there but that
that truly to me points to like a player just playing worse.
Yeah, I I certainly, I don't think it's outside the realm of
possibility that Tony Pollard is playing worse in 2023 than he is
in 2022. What I would say to add a little
context to the broken tackle thing is not all evaded tackles
are created equal right? Like.
Last season there were lots of evaded tackles that Tony Pollard
registered where it was like a dude had an arm on him.
And that's, you know, and it's like he's in open space.
Yeah, and that's a Tony Pollard. House call.
And then this season it's like, yeah, he's evading less, but
it's like because the dude squared up on him, like there's
there's a linebacker in the hole and he's not evading that where.
Well, that's also. I think that's partly running
back skill, though where certainly think.
It could be partially running back skill, like being that,
being fast at the handoff, hitting the right hole like or
so, not hitting not not that he's hitting the wrong hole, but
being fast at the handoff and getting down the field before
somebody hasn't had a chance to take a step like that, that I
think that's a really important part of the game, 100%.
And so to bring it. To this week.
What what are your thoughts on Tony Pollard against a really
bad Carolina run defense in a game where the Cowboys are going
to be heavily favored. Is this are are we finally I
mean I've heard a lot of it's do or die week for Tony Pollard
this season. Is this the real do or die?
Are you just out are you not You're not riding the the Tony
train again and well I I guess I should self admit that I was
never riding the the Tony train and but let's see so well I
guess part of the question is how how much snaps is he losing
and so what's he he's he's on the he's still on the field 67%
of the time since if you look at since week 7.
And that compares to 69%. So his his the last four weeks
are pretty in line with his. His snap percentage in in, in
for the the last four weeks is pretty similar to the snap
percentage for the full year and then his.
Last game he was about 10% lower than than the full season.
So I guess I have AII do have a hard time buying the the lower
snack percentage. What was was, what's his name,
Rico Dowdell, And how much of that was a garbage time and how
much of that is? Dowdle Dowdle seemed a little
bit more involved, even even before garbage time.
Yeah, but. I don't.
I don't know how much of that is.
Just like it didn't need to be garbage Time for them to kind of
feel secure in the game. I yeah, it's.
I mean, they're playing the Giants, so it's a tough one,
right? And when was there bye week,
when was the week seven week 7. So we're well past the bye.
Yeah. I mean there can be week to week
fluctuations that we try to get in the heads of these NFL
coaches and and we never will. So Tim, I I'm going to call, I I
personally will call the the snap difference in a one week
operation. So I would say he still has the
role but. Me personally, I'm highly
suspicious that he has lost a step.
To me, the available data does suggest that he he's lost a step
and with the way running back age works where they just hit a
Cliff I I think. I I think that's where I'm at,
where I I don't want to play a dusty running back unless I
think I can. Unless I think a dusty running
back upside is is useful to me. I don't.
I don't think it is it in the in
the dog bowl. I'm not sure though.
This I'll I'll tell you what. I wrote.
So I I like, go over. I have some projections that I
use and I aggregate and then make a make kind of my look at
what I'm going to be doing this week.
And I looked at where Tony Pollard came out on my
projections and where he's being drafted, and I just wrote some
notes on how I was wanting to attack it before I dove into
any. And my note on Tony Pollard was?
Am I really doing the Tony Pollard thing again?
So that that tells you where I'm at on him this week, right?
I think his his for most of the year if not all of it.
His projection will be better done being free in the dog bowl
would suggest, yeah, he's. He's certainly not free this
week, so it's like that's even more reason to OK.
Scared. I mean I I think that people are
are doing the the one last hurrah for Tony Pollard this
week kind of thing. So, I mean, let me put it
another way, I think I'd prefer Aaron Jones over Tony Pollard.
I I would as well. I have.
Aaron Jones pretty high this week not to just.
Give away all. My alpha right away I I think I
have Aaron Jones as like the 4th or 5th best running back on the
slate. Make makes sense.
I I think he he's he's an older player he's still still clearly
got the juice and you need to stay.
You need to stay away from the injuries and to to get that
production from him. But still.
Clearly performing, I got AI Got an interesting.
One older player, a little bit Hanford by injury.
How do we feel about Austin Eckler this week, especially
with? I I really look at Eckler and
Keenan Allen's production as pretty negatively correlated to
each other, right. When when you get Eckler out,
Keenan really feasts when Keenan's out, Eckler really
takes a lot of that underneath type stuff.
So Keenan 's a little. Banged up this week what do you
what do you think about Eckler here I think even even last week
with the with the sort of good point production he he's still
not actually playing that well. He is his expected point he he's
he had a monster workload in week 10 and but for someone
who's been struggling coming off the injury at at -6 1/2 fantasy
points underrespected and to me that that's still a little bit
of a concern that he's not quite there after the injury.
But then, on the other hand, the fact that he's getting a monster
workload. The the Chargers know better
down. Way better than me looking at
week to week sort of numbers, whether he's healthy or not.
So. I think that I I, I think I'm
more ready to buy the signal of Austin Eckler and getting the
monster workload than the inefficiency.
So to me. I'm like 90 percent sure that
you should project Eckler the way you did in week one this
year or this week that that that.
I think that that's where I'm at.
Note to self. Don't fade Eckler in volleyball
this week I I've got another guy that I just want to make sure
didn't go under the radar for people that weren't masochists
like myself and woke up at, you know, 6:30 AM to watch the
Patriots and Colts game in Germany.
But. I mean, if you're not past the
trade deadline in your leagues, please go try and get Jonathan
Taylor. The, like the Zach Moss
experiment is over. They they basically like gave it
all to Taylor and he was against a pretty good Patriots run
defense. So he didn't, you know explode
out-of-the-box score or anything.
But I believe he got 23. Carries and a couple couple
targets. So yeah, like just truly elite
workload. He had 4343 percent of the team
snaps were rushes to Jonathan Taylor and then 41% of those
snaps he was running a route so pretty good it doesn't get that.
That's the CMC right at the top of the chart.
It it it literally doesn't get better any better than that.
Like he is an old school workhorse running back right
now. Or was it week 10?
So so. Fantasy.
Playoffs, fantasy playoffs are coming.
Let's let's throw a couple of these like really crazy role
mixed with great talent guys here and I want you to rank them
for me. I mean, I think it's pretty
clear CMC is going away as #1, so let's let's keep him out of
the equation, but but let's. Go Austin Eckler, who you're
saying is you you're thinking back to to full strength here.
The let's go Jonathan Taylor and then let's throw an ETN in
there. And then last just to keep it
interesting, we'll we'll mix in Brice Hall.
So how do you got those 40? Oh and I think, I think I'm
that's really difficult. I think I'm between 2:00 and
3:00. I'm really close between Eckler
and JT and part of that like if if I was 100% sure it was Week 1
projection for Eckler, he's like, right.
I think he he's still decidedly ahead of JT and but.
Give I I guess given that I'm not quite I I I I don't think we
can still be quite sure that he is.
And the other thing that I think is important is that the with
the with the you still have a sort of pocket passer for the
Colts. So with him getting those rush
attempts and then running those routes then that is that that's
actually something that I don't think JT has experienced a lot
in his career. So to me, you actually do have
outcomes there to to get the true like Smash Hammer upside.
And I mean, I'm still I'm, I'm, I'm being a little bit wishy
washy. I'm still really close between
that and Eckler where it's like a great quarterback with a very
fantasy friendly talent. In Eckler, where he breaks off
the big runs, he gets a lot of targets.
He does a lot with his targets and.
I I'm honestly, I I think that's I I don't think I can pick after
that. I think I'm having a hard and
then I have a hard time between what's his name.
Who's the Who's the Jaguar ETN and Bruce.
ETN and Bruce. Yeah, where Bruce is definitely
the better talent. He's clearly all the way back
from the ACL surgery. But The Jets offense is.
We've just seen it in enough games now where you have that
risk, where the offense just tanks.
Bruce, where even though he's clearly capable of of doing
those large breakaway runs that give you monster scores.
That and he's, I think he's, he's still better at that than
ETN. But ETN has.
ETN does play for a better offense and I think it's that's
another one where it's really close.
And then who's the other guy, the lost guy?
Those are those are it so? So just to to summarize, you'd
you'd say CMC Tier then you've got Eckler, Taylor Tier and then
you've got Etienne, Breece and that's kind of the the top.
Yeah, I think that I took a long time to get there to like a
pretty simple answer. But yeah, I think that
summarizes are pretty good. I I think it's I think.
The people like to to hear you talk through it and think
through it. So I I certainly was was glad to
hear you do that. But I believe that's everything
I wanted to look at on this first running back chart.
Did you have anyone else or should we move to the backups?
Yeah, I I I think that's a good call.
Let's move on. And so as you said, it's the
same chart except we're dealing with backups here and you know
that I guess that the the big question with playoffs
approaching and sort of like trade deadline stuff and I know
FFEC waiver deadline is coming up, I think Ty Chandler is like
the story of this chart, right Hundred 100%.
Yeah, it's like if you got anything left in the in the fab
budget, you can just, you know, if you're in a league where you
got to like do the defense juggling in the playoffs or
like. Like, not FFPC.
Where waivers close in FFPC. It's basically spend all your
remaining budget on Ty Chandler is what I would be doing and
then I agree for like home. Leagues where you got defense,
you might be trying to block your opponent from picking up a
flex or something like that in the in the playoffs, you know
leave yourself a couple bucks to do that.
But like Ty Chandler is, is such a massive priority because.
The outcome where he is the Vikings lead running back for
the rest of the season is relatively thin.
You know you got a decent chance that it's it's this week.
He's that because of the concussion for Alexander
Madison. But there's a chance that he
flashes enough this week and like, earns more and and just
like. You know, they they clearly
weren't happy with just Madison. They brought in Acres, right?
Like they're looking for something else.
And Ty Chandler got work early in the game, looked good.
He's looked good on the limited opportunities he's had this
season. So yeah, very, very much.
Ty Chandler is the, the highlight of this chart.
I'm glad. I'm glad you put it so strongly
and because I think it's it's sort of worth honing in on like
the idea that you can potentially get a somebody who
can win a job the way that Ty Chandler could hear this late in
the year before week 11 like that.
That's just it just it doesn't happen that often there's a
scarcity there. So even with this sort of
downside risk that he doesn't get there, the fact that you
have that upside makes them so, so valuable because because of
the scarcity, yeah, it's just it.
It's too many. Boxes that he checks right now
too for, for like things that we want right.
It's like on a good offense they're past first he is
explosive. He has breakaway play potential.
You know in his outcomes thin competition ahead of him like
there. It's like all all systems go for
like the type of guy that we should be targeting and it
doesn't matter that he's not. He's not going to hit, you know,
like 8090% of the time it just doesn't work out.
And this, this specific season, this universe, this reality we
live in, it's probably 1 where the Ty Chandler thing doesn't
work out. But the small amount of times
when it does, it's such a large gain for you that you'd make
that bet. It's it's purely an expected
value type of thing. If that makes sense, right?
And I think the idea that and the Vikings are just going to go
back to to bell cow Alexander Madison like I I I don't buy
that at all. Like not at all.
So I think that even in your like sort of like downside case,
I still think you're looking at a pretty good shot at like a
6040 with Titanic being the 40 and this being a valuable
offense where you talk about the haves and the have not like your
downside case being like a 30 to to 40% guy in 1/2 offense that
that's not bad like for a zero, I I think that's a zero or B
start, right? Yeah, hundred 100%.
I know that we have an FFPC team that yeah, Ty, Ty Chandler would
be our best running back, right? And so yeah that definitely feel
feel strongly about that and I I I think that that's more of a a
game theory like call than than a sort of stack call like
everybody knows that he was much more involved Last week he
played well last week with Madison he played he played he
he got the he got the goal line touchdown before Madison had the
concussion and then he played more because of the concussion.
But it it. It's definitely more of a game
to recall than than a sat call. But still want want to emphasize
it? Yeah.
Guys, other guys that I wanted to run through here really
quick, just like providing an update on Raven's backfield
watch. Keaton Mitchell's like doing the
things that he needs to do to you know, unseat Justice Hill.
Yeah, but looking like the most likely outcome here is
disgusting 3 headed monster type backfield where you've got an
electric player in Keaton Mitchell that could deliver a
splash play for you and make him start.
Well, I don't think the ceiling for Keaton Mitchell in any given
week is ever going to get to anything that's ridiculously
high just because the opportunity is going to be so
stymied by this three headed monster.
And the fact that you have Lamar that could hypothetically take
some brushing touchdowns or God forbid throw for some passing
touchdowns if things break his way.
But. I I think the most likely
outcome is that all these guys, Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell,
Justice Hill, get naked. I mean, Justice Hill's looking
pretty naked. He yeah, it's not looking good
for my boy. It's just, yeah, Keaton
Mitchell's like, slightly smaller but more explosive.
Justice Hill and. Yeah, I mean it's not like
Justice Hill is such a large back anyway that that's going to
keep keeping Mitchell off the field, that's they've got Gus
Edwards to do big back kind of thing.
So yeah, overall just quick update on the Ravens.
The other spot that I wanted to touch on was just David
Montgomery showing up on this chart just because he's coming
back from injury and had a couple weeks.
You know, this is the rolling four week sample here for these
guys. Just a quick thing I wanted to
say about the Lions backfield is like in season long you start
your life. If you have a Lions running back
on your team, it is always getting started.
The that team will score so many rushing touchdowns it doesn't
matter. You just play, You play.
If you had both, you'd play both every week.
You you'd never decide like, oh, do I want to bench Gibbs and
play Montgomery? Do I want to bench Montgomery
and play Gibbs? If you had both, you'd play
both. And you will always play
whichever one you have on your roster.
It's just too good of an offense, too too good of a
scheme, like they want to give their running backs the Reds or
the Green Zone opportunities. So it's just like a dream.
And the other thing is, like, this was so painfully obvious
during draft season. Like I drafted a good amount of
David Montgomery, drafted a good amount of Gibbs.
But I should have been treating this backfield just like I
treated the Dolphins backfield, where it's like every draft I
get one of these running backs because it's it's just so
clearly like the best rushing offence in the league.
That offensive line is elite. Elite.
And they love to run it like, but their offense is good too.
It's like not one of these love to run it.
Teams like the Falcons where it's like we love to run it and
the offense sucks. It's like, no, we love to run it
and the offense is awesome. So just had to make my quick
Lions blurb there. No good, good call.
Do not forget about David Montgomery.
Saw a note here from historical anomalies.
Not sure we do. We highlight these comments
enough. So want to make sure I'm doing
it and I think this is true. Ty did have a touch.
Another touchdown called back in a flag, which hopefully that
makes them more retainable this week on waiver pickups.
Yeah. Just that that triggered
something in my brain to go back to, you know, touchdown call
back or narrow miss. Touchdown.
Kyler and Marquis Brown had a a narrow miss that they almost
hooked up on for a deep touchdown bomb.
And I think if that happens, you see, you know, Marquis Brown and
Kyler being viewed a lot more favorably in the market this
week. So many people like Trey McBride
is projecting as the best tight end this week.
Which I think is valid. He's been a crusher and we'll
we'll get to him. But I think there's more
fragility in that projection than people are are willing to
admit and they're already they're crowning Trey McBride
and just saying like, yeah and and you know Hollywood's an
afterthought when I I think that they're yeah, we'll we'll get
into it more when we talk about McBride.
But anyway, yeah, interesting teaser.
And but yeah, let's let I I think it's time to move on on
from this chart. And so any anybody Imam was a.
Bit annoyed that that we have two charts talking about running
backs and then we have two more charts talking about running
backs. Feels like a lot of running.
Back charts, yeah. And and then want to make sure I
I guess I want to make sure that where we touch on stuff here
it's it's stuff that it makes more sense in the context of
these charts than sort of rehashing points we've already
had any of those sort of things sticking out to you where?
Yeah, quick. Just just want to say this so I
remember it we're we're gonna show the people how the sausage
is made live on air here. What do you think about a chart
update idea here? Might not be able to get to it
before. Anyway, Chart update, end of the
year. I combined the last two charts
into this. And for the bubbles, right now I
just have them filled with an orbit of random color to make it
readable That guys are different colors.
What if instead I filled them? They're all like a each bubble
is a pie chart. It's still got the size
reference thing for fantasy points over expected, but I have
like Gray or black for snaps, they're not on the field.
And then those same colors of green and gold for the passing
and rushing snaps. And so we've got these pie
charts or or kind of like Pac-Man looking charts where the
larger the black or the the bad color is when they're not on the
field then we've got those same. I don't know it might be too big
bosses. I actually I liked I I really
like the idea of combining the two two charts my and and my top
would actually be if we combine this chart with a with a table
on expected points and fantasy points over expected and that
that way you can see where and and maybe you can have like if
you want you can have like a table of rushing expected
points, receiving expected points then then like a fancy
points over expected. So that way, I think that way
you truly combine it all into one chart we we definitely have.
Some food for thought there, but I I needed to to say that we'll
we'll go back and listen to this part of the broadcast and figure
out how we're going to doctor these charts up.
But looking at the efficiency chart here there we we've talked
about this in that you know these charts are stabilizing
more of course these are the the rolling four week charts.
So like for example, you can see Javante Williams Really.
Catching some steam here and moving up into that 15 to 20
expected fantasy point and rightfully so.
When you look at his role that he had against the Bills last
night like that was if you were a javante drafter or you got
javante on your season long team, you're really happy with
this development. It looks like a really strong
role for him and he looks good. So that's that's pretty
exciting. That was probably the biggest
one that I wanted to call out. The the Gibbs stuff is going to
be interesting. I I want to see more data points
with Montgomery back to see cause 'cause Gibbs got, you
know, those two touchdowns this week.
One of them was in a spot where like I think a lot of the time
in that scenario, that touchdown goes to Montgomery instead.
But it's felt like the offense with the the team was trying to
reward him for. He had a big play that looked
like he broke the plane. He just barely didn't get in and
they kept him on the field to get the touchdown.
Where I feel like a lot of the times when it's like, oh, we're
at the one yard line where the Lions, it's like, yeah, and
David Montgomery's going to come in and we're going to run four
times, you know, so right. I'm I'm not sure if he ran a
little hot and like he got a situation.
How? How sticky is it that Jamir was
getting that sort of go line touch right that's.
Thank. You for saying what I was trying
to say in a much more concise way.
No, no. We're all we're all trying to
make it work and other. So other guys, oh, sorry.
Did you have anything to add there?
Yeah I I I think that it it it truly bears waiting and and and
watching for another week to see if that split holds up.
I I mean I'm still sort of holding on to my prior that they
want David Montgomery to be the main guy and and and and I'm I'm
guessing I'm speculating that the injury and coming off the
injury was a big part of the the split where or Gibbs was getting
the majority of the snaps and and the touches but definitely
interesting that it happened and and and truly worth watching to
see if it continues and I think if we get another game of that
then it then it it's just Gibbs season.
Yeah, that that's a good. Call KZ had a a comment that I
want to clarify for people 'cause these charts are not
terribly intuitive with how we have them broken up these
running back efficiency charts and expected points.
We split them into two charts because the sheer number of data
points is so much that. It would get really crowded if I
combined them all. And so Rashad White is not on
this first chart, he's on the second chart.
The charts are just split kind of arbitrarily.
It's evens and odds where I've ranked all the players based on
expected fantasy points and said the guys who are ranked 13579,
etcetera, The odds, those all go on one chart, the guys who are
the evens go on another chart. It's just so the charts are a
little bit more readable, but we'll touch on the Rashad White
Josh Jacobs discussion in a second.
We don't have a ton that we need to stay on this chart for.
There's two quick guys I want to hit on #1 is Breece Hall.
With the development of Michael Carter getting cut from the team
and being the thorn in the side for Breece for the passing down,
long down and distance back. I think that's a really bullish
sign. You did see Dalvin Cook more
involved in this most recent game, and Dalvin was.
Hyped Dalv and he was running hard man.
I I honestly think that like for getting the most out of the
player like was it smart to give Dalvin the contract they gave
him? Hell no.
Has he been good? Hell no.
But this last game, like, you know, we're, we're getting.
Out of the the analytics world and into the narrative world
here a little bit. But like, the dude was trying
hard. You could tell like he had a he
ran hard on a run, got a good gain and he got up and he was
like yelling at the bench. Like dude is fired up.
He's he's clearly a competitor like he wants to play.
He's not out there just to collect the check like he he
cares still, you know and so that as as silly as that is, it
does matter to this stuff like it matters to the coaches
certainly. So I don't think we're going to
see, oh Michael Carter gone Breece Hall 100% of snaps.
Now you're just going to be frustrated at the Dalvin Cook
usage, but I do think that there is a little bit of runway here
for Breece to earn more of that passing game work.
And then the other the other two guys are right on that 10 to 15
fantasy point border. They're both right about 10
expected fantasy points backs and that's Jalen Warren and
Brian Robinson. Brian Robinson with a couple
long breakaway, you know receptions this last week.
Don't think that's necessarily repeatable, but yeah, it's just
he he's like your your beautiful zero RB baby.
Like if you drafted Brian Robinson on A0RB team.
My goodness, that's like everything you could ask for.
You know he is. He's filling in your roster,
making sure you're not taking zeros, You're putting up
respectable scores a lot of weeks.
Brian Robinson turning into an awesome pick there, even though
you know the ceiling isn't so crazy.
He's splitting a lot of stuff with Gibson.
Gibson's getting a lot of high value touches still.
But yeah, I just wanted to call out Brian Robinson there and
then Jalen Warren getting the official nod from the team as
now he is the lead back on the team.
I think it's like it's kind of like lead back in name only,
right? Like is it really that different
than what we were already doing? Like I know that he got a couple
more carries this week than he had, you know, compared to his
average touches. So I think it moves the needle a
little bit, but I think. And I think it was like this
already was the thing, you know, like we just put a label on it,
you know, Jalen Warren and Mike Tomlin, they were talking
before, but now they're officially dating.
Like they they just finally put a label on it, you know?
Yeah. I am.
I think that they were already sort of pretty close to 5050 and
and now they were like 5545. Jalen Warren's gone from
probably gone from the 45 to the 55 S.
Maybe it it means a little bit more and but like you said they
were already there it it's just them them like acknowledging
what was already reality. So let's let's flip.
To this next chart and take a little mental snapshot of where
Josh Jacobs is. So he's about 12 expected
fantasy points on the ground. He's got just shy of four
expected fantasy points or right about four expected through the
air there. So sitting around 16 expected
fantasy points and we'll do a little Rashad White comparison.
What do you? Know it's.
Draco with an incredible call. They're the same player, Rashad
White, with higher expected receiving fantasy points.
Now the the, the tricky part of of that comparison is with Jimmy
Garoppolo, there was a lot of lot of check downs to Josh
Jacobs. So I'm I'm wondering how how
sticky do you think or or I I guess over the last couple weeks
he's had less expected fantasy points in the passing game.
Do you think that's a trend like that we should be paying
attention to? Hey, without Jimmy Garoppolo,
Josh Jacobs role in the passing game is a little lighter.
Do you think it's just noise over the last couple weeks?
How do you think that shakes out for that comparison and?
I mean it. It's hard to call like I want to
say it it. Feels it feels a little bit like
the well, especially. Last week with them with the
with the Las. Vegas they they played it seemed
like they played a pretty short game like pretty short shitty
game so that that's one of those games where there's less snaps
going overall. So I think that will depress
expected points but let me let me just pull up the the week by
week and sort of rather than. So yeah, last week they had he
had 15.8. And to me that, that, that.
That doesn't feel terribly sticky and and it being low just
because it was one of those games where there was a lot of
rushes, both offenses being bad, so fewer snaps overall.
Where is week? So week, Week Nine.
It was 19 expected points. And that's when they blew out
the Giants. So he had he had no expected
receiving points but 19 expected rushing points and then 16.4 in
week 815.3 week 7 and he did have 20.6 before that 22.6.
So I mean it, I guess it also depends.
So it's definitely lower, definitely feel that trend
lower. I guess the other question is,
is that because Josh Jacobs is, is is he getting a lower split
and I apologize that I'm sort of like figuring out the answer to
this as as I'm talking and is is there somebody else getting
splits and I don't that's not really true.
I don't think it's not a it's not that somebody else is taking
off work from Jacobs, is that. It's that the offense has been.
There's been the the pie that Jack Jacob the this his
percentage of the pie is about the same but the pie is smaller
and and is that something that's sort of sticky and I guess
probably. Not like I want to say that that
the the Las Vegas offense they're going to have their ups
and downs and but they they also feel like a little bit of a have
not offense so I guess the. Answer is I I think I think I
might get not my guess from looking at the data.
I think that it's more likely than not that Josh Jacobs
expected points coming down is more to do with the offensive
situation than his role and that should the offense get a more
fantasy be a fancy rich environment that he'll he'll
he'll still benefit disproportionately like he has
previously and but I guess you. Just have to see that and and I
guess I think they are a little bit of a hob not offense, but
they're not so terrible. It's not like they're so bereft
of weapons that they will just be like it's just going to be a
dog mire the whole way. So I I think you probably can
expect at least one or two big expected point games from Josh
Jacobs and and we'll see if he can convert those into actual
big. Point games, so so let's tie.
A bow on this Rashad White, Josh Jacobs, because I think that was
such an interesting comparison that you made.
But I really want to analyze it through the context of this week
specifically so that people have a, you know, an actionable take
away. If you're drafting dog bowls,
you're, you know, thinking about it for DFS.
So Rashad White gets the 49ers, who he just saw, you know,
absolutely snuff out. All of my you know 30 something
percent Travis ETN dog bowl teams from the last week and
they just they they put they put a candle on that or they put a
they put a cover on that candle real quick and Travis Etn was
was pretty dead in the water there.
You know that that 49 inch defense was very formidable
against the running back position this past week.
So you got Rashad White, who's not a great runner going into
that, but. He, you know, a lot of his
expecting fantasy points are coming in the passing game where
if they are trailing the 49ers, he's still he's not going to get
game scripted out. On the other side of the coin,
you got Josh Jacobs against the Dolphins I believe, I believe
they're at Miami. But they've they've got, you
know an opponent who could very much push them, put them in a
negative game script. Now I know we've seen Jacobs
kind of get. Game scripted out, which is
weird given his involvement in the passing game.
But what do you what do you think here?
Do you prefer Jacobs against a a slightly more vulnerable Miami
defense in in a game that should?
There should be a lot of points scored on the other side, but
you prefer Rashad White against a a very formidable 49ers
defense. Also, probably a lot of points
coming from that oppo offense there this is.
It just truly feels like a gun in my head.
And I I. I mean, both of those feel kind
of like gross, right? And where's 49ers like you said,
given the framing that they just slammed Etienne down and but I
guess maybe with some further context is that like the 49ers
offense hasn't been invulnerable.
Like there's been offenses that have put up points against them
and wait. Or Shad White.
Not like. Not a great talent.
So like average of best talent, the Tampa Bay offense being an
average of best offense and 49ers being an elite defense.
I guess you you would lean the the balance of probabilities
that they sort of like just crushed them and and then it's
really I. I don't.
I don't want to say that like dolphins.
Defense is is just like a punching bag.
I I don't. I don't think it it has been
and, but it's definitely not the 40.
Niners, that's for sure. And so I, I, I, I think you
probably do lean Jacobs there. Where's just I I guess.
Just because the maybe just slightly on defensive matchups,
I mean that doesn't feel like a great.
A great reason to lean one player another.
You'll like the defensive match of it better because that that
stuff is so it's so volatile. It's so random that like it can
just be wrong and but I think you probably do give a slight
lean with them being very similar.
Being very similar and players and and and and maybe even
offenses. In terms of like your their
expected points and stuff like that that you probably just give
the slight lean to to the defense but caveated with strong
and price sensitivity, strong like ownership and sensitivity,
stuff like that. That like if, like Josh Jacobs
was way more expensive than Rashad White just because of a
defensive difference, then it would be Rashad White.
But in a vacuum, all else equal would slightly in Josh Jacobs.
OK. And then.
Let's just expand on that and say because it is clear you
don't have a strong lead between those guys.
They're they're relatively similar, it's more about price
sensitivity. What do you think about Aaron
Jones versus both of those two? You prefer Jones?
He's he's got the Chargers. This week who just got ran all
over by granted the one of the best run games in the league.
But that does feel a bit. Better, right?
I I agree. You have the more explosive
player. And and I think he's just as
important to the offense. They really don't like AJ
Dillon, so. I think, I think that, I think
that's where I would go, yeah. And then I'm I'm pretty sure.
You'll say Aaron Jones over this other player.
You you would take Aaron Jones over Saquan Barkley?
I'm assuming without too much thought, yeah.
It it feels right. But then, Saquan.
In that, Rashad White and Josh Jacobs triumvirate of yuckiness.
Do you have? Oh my God, you're just making.
Me. Fucking.
The I Deep dive make it, making you earn it this.
Week, Draco. I'm like swimming through.
Garbage. Like I just dumped in the dive
in the dumpster. Dive in the dumpster.
Dumped in the dumpster. And and I'm swimming.
I mean, am I allowed to say they're?
Like they're those those are just truly all gross.
And you need a If you're playing any of them, you need an awful
lot of luck to go on your side, and that it's hard, that that's
hard to pin down. What you want is.
Is that too much of A? Cop down.
That's that's fair. So but I I think the the take
away that we can give people then is those three are kind of
a similar tier. So maybe say for example, you're
you're sitting there in the dog bowl and you aggressively
attacked receiver early this week because.
What I'm seeing, that seems to be a sharp way to play this
week. The way the slate plays out and
you're sitting here and those 3 backs are available and you
could either take the first of those 3 backs or you could
prioritize your quarterback or tight end.
If you thought one of those would make it back to you, you
you'd be totally fine just taking whoever the market gave
you out of those three. Yeah, totally, totally, totally.
All right. I think.
We spent. You know who I who I want.
More to the hold Em Devin. Singletary, baby.
Oh my God, you. Your Devin Singletary love is
unparalleled, and that's a little bit of a joke.
I I I think that he's probably he's he's at least a lot closer
to him. Assuming Damien Pierce doesn't
play. I don't think he's any different
in play to them. Wow.
That's a That's a strong endorsement for Devin Singletary
I I. I I all I'm saying is I think
he's in in that tier, which honestly it says a lot about.
I think it says a lot about what sort of what I think about that
tier as well that's that's also. True.
So here we have the. Tight end utilization and
efficiency chart and when and this is our sort of starting
tight ends and we've sorted this by route percentage and
obviously. With the way different offenses
use their tight ends, what you want is you want a tight end
that's running a lot of routes, not having the pass block a lot.
And then you also want you want the the tight end on a team
where they're just using one guy all the time like you can.
You can have offenses where tight ends are involved, but if
they split it between three different guys it's it's not
that helpful so. Yeah that that's why it's it's
quite valuable to see the the routes as a percentage of team
drop back and then you want to see guys who are getting down
the field targets much more helpful than sort of like short
dump offs and you also want to see what rate they're they're
getting targeted at per route. So targets per run is that
percentage and again I, I, I. Think.
It's really interesting seeing Dalton Schultz sort of like
catapult into the the tops part of this chart.
Just because it seemed like early in the offseason or
actually later in the offseason and the preseason and and even
going into the season it I I wouldn't have expected them to
be like a true true starter getting 20% targets per run like
8.2, A dot like that that feels like.
Dalton Schultz belongs in, like, maybe like, top six, top ten
tight ends rest of the year, yeah.
You know, I I know most people probably aren't gonna go back
and unearth their own worst takes.
But yeah, definitely don't go listen to like Week 1 or week
two of stat chasing where I believe I said to the effect of.
If you drafted Dalton Schultz, he's a zero for the rest of the
year for you. So don't definitely don't listen
to that. Yeah, Dalton Schultz role has
certainly grown as the season has progressed.
I do think that he and Nico Collins are likely negatively
correlated and that they both are operating kind of in that
middle of the field, you know quadrant and so.
I I think that when Nico is active it probably hurt Schultz
a little bit. I would, I would want to see,
you know it's it's too small a sample to actually even know
this season. But like, I I would bet you that
Schultz and Collins are negatively correlated.
And so if I'm ever playing like CJ Stroud, double SI probably.
I mean, I wouldn't go out of my way to avoid pairing those two,
but like if if there were other factors like a salary discount
in DFS or an ownership discount or you know, major ADP
differences or things like that where I can if if I'm going for
ACJ Stroud double. I'm probably having like a
slight tiebreaker against doubling with Schultz and
Collins. Just like a small little micro
thing that could be totally wrong.
But, but that's in in my brain. That is that's how I'm viewing
it right now. There's there's maybe a slight
negative correlation there between those guys that makes
sense. And and so I guess we should
address our, our cover bite here, where you said that his
training bride, his his very strong production last week is
perhaps a bit fragile. Yeah, I mean.
I do think that. You know, we're seeing the
breakout happen like 27% targets per route run is elite.
You know 7.3 A dot is very good, especially for you know it's not
one of the highest ones, but when you get 27% targets per
route run. It doesn't matter you you can
have a much lower A dot and still be a crusher.
This is actually what we saw early this season.
Like same targets for outruns, similar A dot.
I think a little lower. A dot for Jake Ferguson.
But this is what we saw from Jake Ferguson in the first
couple weeks that kind of perked our antennas up for him.
We're like whoa, this guy. He wasn't running as many.
He wasn't on the field as much as McBride but when he was he
was getting targeted at this rate.
And so I and Trey McBride looks like.
You know, he looks like the real deal.
So I'm not I'm not trying to poo poo all over Trey McBride when I
say that the projection of him being the highest projected
tight end on the main slate this week is fragile.
I just this is the second game the dude has played with Kyler
this season. You know?
And last season, like, I don't think he played a ton while
Kyler was healthy. I think he got some run, but
like you're still in a relative. You got a relatively small
sample here of Trey McBride working with Kyler.
And I I don't think that it's a given that he's locked in the
number one option on the offense.
I mean, do I want to do I want to play McBride and Kyler stacks
this week? Hell yeah.
I'm. I'm going to do it a lot, you
know? But I I think.
In the. Same vein.
You need to be willing to do Kyler and Hollywood and I I
think even like I'm trying to remember how cheap Rondale Moore
is, I was like, I. Did a very early cursory look at
prices on DraftKings but Rondell Moore looked I I think he's like
if he's not Stoneman he's like 33 or 3400 or something I want
to say and that's interesting to me too.
So I think you just I think attacking the whole game
environment is interesting this week but bringing it all back to
Trey McBride you know rest of season outlook looks elite he
he'll be a tight in one rest this season.
But I'm just to. Acknowledge we as soon as Zach
Ertz went down we called top six tight end and rest of the year
and not that we want to but just to contextualize it, we we have
been very big and bulls very bullish on training ride.
That's that's good stuff. Draco, you got to mix our
victory laps in there to offset my dog shit.
Dalton Shoals things. So we, you know, we just kind of
got to layer those in. We're we're giving you the good
and the bad here. But yeah, we're we're clearly
very bullish on Trey McBride. I got a lot in my best ball bags
like he's very exciting for the rest of the season.
I'm just saying like when you get this level.
We're we're going to go through the Trey McBride irrational
exuberance period in the market right now because he is the hot
young thing. Like just just watch like the
lead up to this week, like all the DFS shows and everything.
Like you're going to get some Trey McBride chatter, you know,
just just wait for it. And all I'm saying is be willing
to get a little different than the.
Market if Trey McBride's going to come in as, like, far and
away the most common way to play Kyler this week.
I'm just, I'm willing to do a little, little different.
Not that I'm full Fading McBride.
Like I I'm going to play a bunch of it.
I just I think there's a lot of meat on the bone potentially
with how excited people are going to be for him this week.
That's all right. So.
You you. What you're saying is you do
actually agree with a high projection for McBride.
Yeah, yeah, he should. Like.
There's good reason to be excited for McBride, right.
He looks great. The role is great.
Like it's it's all systems go. It's just that when you get the
market behaving like this on a player where they're ever in.
So like Trey McBride's going like, I think I saw him go 1-2
turn in a dog bowl today. Like, dude, Trey McBride is, you
know, Jesus Christ himself. Apparently according to the
market right now, like I fully. Expect him to walk.
On water this Sunday. So the.
What? What's the $100 contest?
That That's the main small small fields, The single entry on DK,
the SPY. The spy, Yeah.
So what what ownership would would do you change it.
It's so early and he's not like. He's not priced down a ton.
I think he's a four, like a low 4K kind of guy, but 4400. 4400.
I haven't. And then the Portis 58, Schultz
is 5000, Kiddo 64, Kincaid is 40. 9 Oh God, you're gonna.
You're gonna get all right I'll I'll this this is don't don't
not not your prediction I'm. Not asking you to predict
ownership. I'm asking what you think
ownership should be. Oh, what should it be?
Oh, official ownership for him is probably like in the high 30s
like I I would say. So.
So again to bring further nuance to your point, you think he's a
smash play but he's a Giga smash.
Yeah. Like the field is going to be
so, so over on a what is it actually like I I need I need I
need tight end game to game is fragile because the the way the
the way the distribution of their scoring often works.
Is that they have the huge games they have like and then they
have they can often have times have like smaller games and I'm
not I'm not so sure that that's how it works for training Bride
given how to like because I I'm looking at it here just to to
tie back to the stat chasing stuff like he he was definitely
not a starter until weekend week.
Sorry until week 8. And then from there his his Rep
percentage was 88%, his target Rep per out run was 39% week,
963% right, right percentage, only 25% targets per out run and
then last week 78 percent, 32% target for out run.
So it's it's I I think. There is something there that as
he's played more, his target for out run has actually come in a
little higher. Than than his full season stuff.
So I think that he may. I think there's actually an
argument to be made that he is a true, like sort of ball hug, but
when you're talking. About.
Something where the the sample size is still pretty small that
people are playing in as if it's like definitely that way that
maybe there's some leverage on it.
That that's the point, right? Yeah.
Yep. And and.
Just if you want a place where you could potentially pivot this
week to get a another exciting tight end that looks good in you
know, in this tight end usage chart, you know could deliver a
big spike. Week has already done it a
couple times this season, and you could also pair with a
quarterback with rushing upside in a pretty condensed target
tree offense. Yeah, I think playing Cole Comet
and Justin Fields in his first game back against a Detroit
team, that Detroit can score a lot of points.
And so if you get a game where they're able to go back and
forth, I think that the fields and Comet route to play it.
And then maybe you you get a little, you know, even stronger
leverage off McBride and play like a Hollywood Brown or a, you
know, full punt Rondale Moore at 3300 or whatever.
Like, because projections. Yeah, Casey's on the same page
with me here. Like, projections wise, there's
never in a million years that you could get to Rondale Moore
instead of Trey McBride on on this Cardinals side of that
game, right? Like, you're just never getting
there. And so if McBride really comes
in as steamed as he does and you're looking for a punt play,
I mean, Rondale Moore might be too thin.
Maybe you got to do like a Hollywood Brown.
In in like low 5 KS for for him. But the the point is there's
ways to lever off McBride. I think there's other really
interesting tight end plays on the slate and I I think that you
can pair it with another quarterback that could do the
type of stuff that Kyler can do as far as his single game
ceiling. I just, I like having those
onesie positions with the really strong correlation to their
ceilings. You know, tight end to
quarterback correlation. Is really nice with with so much
of their production, often times coming from touchdown.
So anyway, that's my my rambling bit on how we could potentially
play the Trey McBride situation this week.
Makes sense? Makes sense.
So I don't think there's a whole lot other surprise surprising
stuff here like the the, the, the thing that strikes my eye
the most is you're still seeing Michael Mayer stuck around this
sort of 60% rate. His his Tiger sprout run like
far from elite. So I think we we we were on sort
of breakout watch for Meyer and and I think we should still be
on breakout watch but definitely not there yet at all like.
Definitely is, is. A desperation start, if that.
At tight end, Yeah, Meyer Meyer's just.
Going to be the random rookie tight end that goes off in the
fantasy playoffs and everyone's like, we knew he could do it and
he ends up being a good best ball pick because his spike week
is Week 16. You know, right?
I I see it in my mind's eye. Yeah.
Damn. Here here's hoping anyway and
and so I. Unless you have any objections,
let's move on to to this. The backup?
Yeah, let's let's hit it. And Oh my God, it it.
I'm not. I'm not seeing a whole lot of
reason to to stay on this chart very long.
No, it's Jover. For Irv Smith, he's like not
even running the most routes for the Bengals.
So like, don't just. Just for everyone.
I need it. I'm saying this for me as much
As for everyone else. We never need to draft Irv Smith
again. There were lots of years where
we did the Irv Smith thing 'cause he looked exciting and
injury derailed him and oh, this is going to be the year Titans
can bloom late Irv Smith. We never need to do it again.
We're good. It this this can be the last
time that Irv hurts you. So I just, I needed to say that
really for me, just like just like.
This is a. Random Not useful to anyone
except like the most absolute sick degenerates.
But Lucas Kroll, Broncos tight end actually like got on the
field did some. Did the stuff that like you
would hope a Greg Dolich does and that he's he's like running
some downfield routes. They had him on a wheel route
anyway. Lucas Kroll had like a a full on
0 gooser projection and like every projection source for for
Showdown slate last night. And it was one where I noticed
just watching the game, like that's one where the projection
the people do it, the people that are really good at doing
projections didn't have this role that the Broncos clear.
Like this was a spot that the Broncos had in mind when they
elevated him. Like we need this guy to do this
thing and. For me, what it actually did was
gave me a little bit of hope that Dulcich could deliver.
I'm literally talking like one week.
I might get one spike week from Dulcich when he comes back, but
it looked I mean, this feels like a showdown.
Take. Exactly, That's really.
What it is, It's like I saw Lucas Kroll at $200.00 stone men
projected for full gooses, and then I saw what he actually did
in the game as like that. It should have been like A1A
projection of 1 or .8, but it shouldn't have been zero.
It should have been someone that if you're.
If you're 150 maxing and you're looking for unique lineups, you
should have played some. Lucas Kroll and I did not, but
I'm like, I filed that away in my mental filing cabinet.
So you won't have to file for very.
Long because the Broncos host the Vikings on Sunday Night
Football this week? Well, so here's the hoping so if
you see. If you see Lucas Kroll Captured
touchdown this week, you know you know Sacrilegious is
dancing. Oh boy.
But yeah, that's that's all the time and mental energy we need
to spend on this backup tight end chart.
Don't need to tell me twice and and so this I I I feel like the
wide receiver chart is another one where it gets it's pretty
stable but I see we have a new entrance here of Jalen Naylor
who ran Naylor. I hardly know her.
He he ran 95 to 100% of routes. But is it true?
Like he is like the the he is the president of the cardio club
like he is the CEO? Yeah, I almost, I almost wonder
if he's somebody that we should exclude from the chart we should
we should exclude. From the chart, but man, I was
talking shit on Alec Pierce doing the wind Sprint thing last
week and Jalen Naylor said hold my beer, I got this, I'm the
wind Sprint king. So yeah, Jalen Naylor.
You're only going to see him once, guys.
He'll he'll get excluded next week.
But talking about more relevant fantasy players?
Just music, music to my ears and warming my heart, Adam Thielen
continues to regress in the fantasy points department.
Beautiful, beautiful thing. You love to see it.
It was just so painful to watch the slappies getting there for
so long this season. But it truly looks like he is
coming back down to Earth and not running hotter than the sun
anymore. Got an interesting one for you.
How do we feel about Deontay Johnson as a a little positive
regression candidate? Here?
I'm going to be a little. Bit boggled here and say that I
think Deontay sort of belongs in the in the Aaron's targets
doesn't score points quadrant of the chart now.
This. Like I I want to preface this
with saying I I think he should be better than what is it?
Eight points a game. So I think you do have positive
regression coming there. But I'm going to say again, I.
Think that he profiles as a player who's almost always going
to get strong targets but underperform those targets and
it it's just who he's sort of been his entire career.
Or or am I? Am I being a bit too grinchy
there? I I gotta push back a.
Little bit. He had a couple pretty good
weeks here. I think he put together like a
18 point performance and like he he had some weeks where you
would have been very happy to have started him this last,
right. I'm not saying that he can't.
Score 18 points in a game? Yeah, I I don't think he's ever
gonna. Average above, I don't.
I I think it's it's very hard for me to see him averaging like
above 15 points a game. That's and that's.
Big stretch. Not that he can't.
Do it for three games or whatever.
That's that's fair. Yeah.
So, so let's let's pick some guys that are similar in in way
of targets for route run here like DK Metcalf or Deontay and
it. It has to be DK right?
I'm not. So sure on that one I I so
watching the Seahawks this last week against what's one of the
worst pass defenses in the league like yes the the counting
stats got there by the end of the game, right.
But for a lot of that game, I I was just watching it thinking
how are the Seahawks? How is the Seahawks passing
attack this poor? You know, like there is a long
stretch of that game where they just weren't.
Really doing anything like and and it's so split like yeah
Tyler Lockett had a good game but like I I feel like it's it's
really just like DK Tyler JSN now are all like eating into the
pie enough. And I I just Gino hasn't been
very good this season. I mean maybe you and this was
the spot you know like Gino was was Pat's cover boy on his
walkthrough this week. Like I really love the spot.
I played a good about it. Gino in dog bowl.
I attacked that game pretty aggressively and to me, I just,
you know, in in. Seeing it.
I was like I was left wondering if maybe the Seahawks passing
game is just not very good. And and that's not to say that
the Steelers passing game is very good, but it's like Deontay
is earning so much there. You know, compared to like the
splits for Pickens with and without Deontay are pretty
stark. Like Pickens is really suffering
from Deontay coming back. And so I'm just just a little
curious there, but. It's clear you prefer DK to
Deontay there. What about Godwin versus
Deontay? I think that those are those are
pretty similar players and I think Godwin is probably like if
you're looking for a regression, you're probably looking at
something close to what Godwin has been producing for Deontay.
But it it definitely feel, it definitely seems like the the
Tampa Bay offense has been more functional than Pittsburgh.
This is. This is one of those interesting
spots where for for me personally, I really try to fade
like any coach related narrative or like production adjustment
that we're we're applying to players during the offseason
because. Like guys the coaches take 0
snaps. You know, like I I've never seen
Canalis get out there on the field for the Bucks and take a
snap. But gosh darn it, like the
Seahawks offense looks a lot worse without him and the Bucks
defense looks pretty good with him.
Like for for what the Bucks are. You know, like, I I think
everyone expected the Bucks to be like basement dwellers this
season and Mike Evans is out here doing Mike Evans.
Shit, guys, I'm like. Chris Godwin's suffering a
little bit because of that. It's like so much heavily going
to Mike Evans and Les to Godwin this season, but it's like you
know and you got Rashad White with an incredible role like
very functional like fantasy option.
So I I don't know. There there's I I guess what I'm
trying to say is there are these outlier coaches or offensive
coordinators where it's like if you're able to identify the guys
that are actual legitimate difference makers.
For putting their players in positions to succeed for
fantasy, I think that's pretty important.
And then for everyone else, you just need to not listen to
anything that's coach related because it doesn't move the
needle except outside of this handful of guys.
I think it's it's like the. It's like the A the the latter
grade system you were talking about before.
Like an A coach makes a difference and an F coach makes
a difference. But the difference between,
like, AB coach and AD coach, it's like it's almost nothing in
terms of fantasy. That's I'm.
I'm literally making a mental note of that right now because
like going into best ball season every year, I have like a Google
Sheet of stuff that I wanted to remember And I write down and I
like, go through some kind of some preliminary rankings that I
do before I I just like aggregate all the rankings that
I use and then like use that to help me when I'm drafting.
But I try to get my own thoughts down first.
I'm definitely putting that in there.
You know, A's and F's make differences and everything in
the middle. You can kind of tune out and
just it's fine for those Yeah I I, well, I, I, I that.
That's definitely been something where I found like people get
too, too fixated on, like the stuff in the middle two other
guys. I wanted to touch on here.
I I guess there's technically 1/3 I should probably hit on,
but. Garrett 2 College teammates.
Garrett Wilson Chris Olave Garrett, Wilson.
Just from the sheer fact that like, dude.
Imagine. Like, imagine if it was anyone
other than Zach Wilson. He's getting insane target
volume, like he's catching balls that are just like horribly late
or behind him or sailing over like, I I don't know if you
watch that, their game, but Zach Wilson sails him.
It's like way over his head. And the dude just like jumps 3
feet in the air straight up, and it looks like a no effort kind
of play. I I had to go back and look at
that replay. It's like, did he did he jump as
high as I thought he jumped, or was that like an optical
illusion? He just like went straight up in
the air after this entirely errant pass?
Oh my God, Garrett Wilson is so good.
If The Jets have any kind of quarterback situation next
season, that's not Zach Wilson. You can catch me drafting
Garrett Wilson probably top six, top seven overall.
Like if Garrett Wilson's going in the second round, I'll be
100%. Garrett Wilson is what I'll say.
Literally, I will be 100%. Don't don't care.
I'm down if he's in the second round next year.
If he's in the second next year, I'm. 100% Garrett Wilson.
And and and that's on the sort of the idea that Zach Wilson
being the quarterback next year or anybody as bad as Zach Wilson
is just like a not a, just not a viable It it it cannot be true.
Yeah, I mean it. Like, for example, if we're
rolling into next season, it's like Aaron Rodgers retired and
The Jets say they're sticking with Zach Wilson, then I'm not
100% Garrett Wilson, to be perfectly clear like.
But if it's anyone, if it's anyone whatsoever, that is the
quarterback. That's it all like if if Jacoby
Brissette is the quarterback next year, I'm 100% Garrett
Wilson in round two. The the other guy, Chris Olave,
also got AI hate to to trash on Derek Carr, 'cause I I think he
gets a lot of unfair hate. But man, Jameis Winston coming
in and all of a sudden like making Chris Olave look like a
real boy again. Does does kind of bode poorly
for Derek Carr so well? In fairness, James is like a
fantasy kingmaker, that's where. Like he he's so aggressive.
He's so willing to throw the ball down the field and over and
over and over again that he he does, he does make players look
very good if the problem is when when he chose the the, the tree
interceptions in a game and and then the coaches don't trust him
and and whatnot but. Did you see his target to
Rashid, Shahid And I want to say there were three defenders in
immediate proximity and I saw the one where he chewed all the
way across the field to like AT Perry.
No, that was another that was. Another sick one that was like
never do this, but sick play James like no.
The Rashid Shahid one was an interception.
It was like. That is the I I've seen Jameis
do that a million times in a Bucks uniform.
That's what I needed. Inject that shit straight into
my veins like I'm here for Jameis Winston making God awful
decisions, But it's very fun to watch he.
Is a he? Is he is one of those players
that makes football fun? Yeah, but definitely it's a
little concerning that Olave looks so good with Jameis out
there. But at the same time do do want
to be a little bit cautious that Jameis is like he he is.
He's a true kingmaker and I really hope for oh lave's sake
that Jameis plays a lot more games throughout the year.
But. I I to me it it's maybe a small
negative on on car, but not not a huge one.
OK, those were all the Oh my last.
I'm going to hit you with the two second blurb, Michael
Pittman. Just.
Incredible role. Tons of volume, looks really
good. Downs was out this week and so
Michael Pittman just got it all or he wasn't out, but he was
pretty limited with the knee he he got you know a little bit of
work but nowhere near what he he typically would get.
So Pittman is just like going to forever be in that echelon of
like I would probably say like you know, match up agnostic.
I'm looking at him as like, slightly better than Chris
Godwin. Like probably in you know square
squarely in, I mean shoot, it's just the guys that he's around
on the chart he's like right in that Christian Kirk probably
like a little bit lighter than Christian Kirk you know, better
than Jacoby Myers type range of player, but very, very usable
for fantasy. Yeah, yeah, agreed.
Where he's he's definitely Aaron the consistently high target
share and that like last in week 10 his target per out run was
like 42%. No that's that's not nowhere
near his his season average which is 25% but that's a pretty
healthy pretty strong targets per out run.
He is like he's definitely he definitely dominates targets for
sure and and I think I don't I think we should be keeping that
in mind in future years maybe I I want to be a little bit
conscious on the price but should.
Should be keeping that in mind that he is a target dominator,
yeah? I as we as we roll to the next
chart here I'll just say with the hindsight of seeing how this
season played out and what we saw from Anthony Richardson as a
passer the the Michael Pittman price just wasn't correct.
This, you know, like it was way too low.
We were, the market was. Over correcting for the risk of
Anthony Richardson being a bad passer and undervaluing how good
the role was for Pittman. And so that's just something
that I want to remember for next season that if if I'm getting
you know, like seventh round Michael Pittman, that's that's
one where I got to be willing to just say hey this it's too many
targets. Like I'm just going to take it.
Right. Yeah, Yeah, definitely.
And and and and especially in an environment where order
receivers are getting priced up, if if he's not getting that same
treatment, it makes a lot more sense to take them so.
Yeah, like you alluded to, let's move on to the Tyree Kill chart.
Yeah, same way, same effect that we had on the last chart, but
the exact opposite where he's just far and away to the top and
right. So tyree kill is the.
Inverse Jalen Naylor, pretty much, pretty much like Jalen
Nagar had an, let's say Naylor, I should say, and he had one
target for for three air yards. Tyree Kill has like a million
targets for a billionaire Yards and those.
I believe those numbers are accurate.
A million, right? I I counted.
Yeah. The the guys on this chart I
mean like so tank Dell graduate from the the backups wide
receiver chart of the low low route rate chart.
Guys from earlier in the season truly looking like a, you know,
breakout, you know, rookie wide receiver looking awesome.
Earned just an insane amount of volume with Nico Collins out
this last week. Wasn't able to convert it into
quite as an impressive if if I told you that he was going to
get 15 targets, you'd be like, Oh my God, did Tank Dell go for
40? But he he, you know, a lot of
them just narrow misses. Wasn't able to hook up.
But you gotta you know if you have Tank Dell and Best Ball,
congratulations as a fantastic pick.
I'm my mental note that I'm making on.
Tankdel small wide receivers and and rookie wide receivers in
general is the market isn't great at pricing.
These rookie wide receivers that that end up getting opportunity
on their teams like Pukanakua, Tankdel you know and extending
it to guys like for example Josh Downs like also is going really
late. Cedric Tillman going undrafted.
And there in that instance, you had like too many guys ahead of
Cedric Tillman, which kind of makes sense why he was going so
late. But for guys like Tank Dell,
where it's I think with Tank Dell, it was an ambiguous wide
receiver core, just like you. You probably could argue that
for the Browns, too. So really what I'm trying to get
to is #1. The upside of these guys is so
asymmetric for the impact it can have on teams and basketball.
That missing on them is so painful that you really want to.
It's so, so costly to miss out on that huge boost that you can
get from a hit like a tank Del or a puka that you really should
make sure diversifying stinks when it leads to you being off
of like Oh my God, I could have had 30% puka but instead I split
it between some puka and some Tank Del and some Cedric
Tillman. And some Josh Downs, right, like
you're sad you diversified then. But like let me just you know,
for for the other side of the coin where I didn't get to as
much Puka, you know, I got to a lot of Tutu instead.
I didn't get to as much tank Dell, I got to Robert Woods
instead. And it's like you really should
just be willing to, you need to mix in these rookies that are
free, right? Because the upside is so
asymmetric. Three and cheap Day 2 rookie
receivers. Yeah they're they're.
Yeah. You just got to take him like
I'm in Ross St. Brown.
He was like the classic like going free and so cheap even in
in an environment when receivers were were going higher that year
already and same same with Tankedo.
Yeah, and like. Marvin Mims, We all got so out
over our skis and excited for Marvin Mims.
Which we'll get to more on the next chart I guess.
But you know we we were drafting him with so much more confidence
than we were drafting Tank Dell or or Josh Towns or Puka, right.
And it's my, my other thing that I was trying to to play off the
Tank Dell thing is in the year that Devonta Smith came out,
this was like early enough in the transition of the league
where like you know the the way that they were calling pass
interference had had changed at that point for a couple years
but. I still was in.
My brain was broken to. I need the big bodied alpha wide
receivers. Where's the tiny man?
Yeah. Where's the two?
120 pound alpha. That's going to throw guys
around. I need them to box guys out in
the end zone. And I for that reason I was
like, I'm out on Devonta Smith. He's too small.
It's just not going to work in the league and now we've got
such a track record that the market's probably going to have
been caught up to this. So the edge is going to diminish
but. Just I I'm never going to talk
myself out of a guy because he's too small anymore.
Because I did the same thing with Tank Dell.
It's like he's too small. He's not going to win.
I know that I was wrong about Devonta Smith for that, but Tank
Dell's even smaller than Devonta Smith, so it has to be true this
time that it's not a good idea, but just just throw the size
shit out the window. For wide receiver, it doesn't
matter anymore. You know, if a guy, if a guy can
play, he can play. But just needed to get that
rambling off my chest there. Yeah, I I think a a way to think
about it is that as the average size goes down like for example
Jalen Waddell's 185, Garrett Wilson 192 and like those aren't
receivers that we think of as small anymore.
If like that's just like an average normal size receiver
then like the outlier bottom of the bottom of that has to be
lower too. Like it used to be 185 like was
the small receiver and and they'd be the outlier if they
made it. But no that's like that's like a
normal size like even Jamar Chase only £200 like obviously
that's a big man but like he he, I I I wouldn't have taught him
as like that that I'm surprised by how low that number is and
definitely yeah something to keep in mind that the this the
receiver size are coming down yeah, yeah.
Very, very good. Point there other guys on this
chart return of Debo, he had. He had some opportunities in the
rushing game too that you know, you like to see just just for
his overall upside. It's not that the rushing
touches themselves are inherently all that valuable.
But the way I look at it with Debo is he he's kind of like
Debo's just a home run hitter in the same way that, like a Breeze
hauler, a Kenneth Walker is a home run hitter right?
Where you're just like. I just want the the chances at
like the big play to explode and and break the slate and so Debo
being involved in the rushing game is nice just 'cause you
you're like, hey that's another chance at a big breakaway
touchdown type play. Jordan Addison, I don't know if
you watched the all of the Minnesota game.
He just he looks for real, man. Like I know I know want to say
his open score isn't the greatest.
There's some other underlying metrics that like.
Don't don't think that he don't look at him so so favorably.
Like I I would say I'm like, I I actually don't pay a lot of
attention to those advanced metric stuff because I saw that
for example, what's his name? Tyree.
Kill his yards after the catch score is like low.
And they're like, oh, it's because when he catches the ball
he's expected to go like 50 yards to the house And then
like, oh, what about his open score?
Oh, that's not great either. OK, well part of I.
Know I I read an explanation on those models and part of it was
the distance to so they're using player coordinate data and so
one of the features in the model is distance between nearest
defender and so with a player like Tyree kill where there's
shit happening. In a Tyree kill play, that
doesn't happen anywhere. It's like the model is fit for
all this normal stuff happening and then Tyree kills like and I
have 28 yards of separation between me and the next closest
guy on the field. And so yeah, it's just models
are every model is wrong, right? It's just like how wrong is the
model and so? What you can do as an analyst is
find those areas of fragility or weakness in the model and add
context to that with like understanding what's going on
here And and I think it's important to dig into the model,
see what the features are, learn the weaknesses and fragilities
and then you can have those like I think open score can be really
valuable when you figure out where the flaws are in that
model and how to properly apply it and so.
I don't know exactly why Jordan Addison is scoring poorly in
some of those advanced metrics, but I can just tell you like, I
loved him as a prospect and it's translating into rookie
production and the dude just looks like he can play early.
I'm calling my shot early next season.
Jordan Addison's efficient price as a best ball pick is going to
be late fourth round, and if he's going any later than that,
I'll have a shit load of them. I think, I think that's pretty
fair, 'cause he he wasn't going that much later than that this
year, right? He was like 7th.
Round I want to say 7th, 8th. So, right, I guess, I guess that
and that's what the rookie with the the sort of like rookie risk
where we haven't seen him in playing the NFL and now we have
and he's obviously very good. So I I think that I think that's
very reasonable. So you're saying my take wasn't
hot? Enough, I should have said third
round. Not your your your yeah your
your take was not hot. I gotta.
I'm sorry to tell you. I got.
I gotta learn how to. Spice these takes up, But then
again I I react to news very aggressively sometimes too
aggressively. So it it it may not be a it's
probably not, like, hot to me. But maybe to someone who's like,
oh, actually, like, maybe to somebody else it is.
All right, Draco, we have. A prayer of coming in under two
hours. And this last chart has like
nothing on it. It's a wasteland.
So let's hit this last wide receiver chart.
There's only, there's really only like 2 guys on here that
are at all interesting. And and you know what I realized
the one that's the most interesting to me isn't even on
the chart. But Jayden Reid was interesting.
I actually, believe it or not, had a Jayden Reid share in the
dog bowl this last week. And I I want to say that was a
team where I had like four of the six pieces that I needed to
to be nutted and I think I had like a Deontay Johnson for 2.2
on it that sunk it. But would have been so fun to
win another Miami ticket with Jayden Reid on there.
He's the only guy that I'm seeing on this chart where I'm
like that's a guy and and Rashi Rice you've talked about
obviously already before but he he's Jayden Reid is a guy that
there's potential for him to graduate in my opinion and he
looks he looks good. I I wouldn't be surprised at all
if by next season Jayden Reid is the best wide receiver on the
Packers and I That's not a hot take.
That's just the facts, right? And yeah, definitely definitely
enjoyed watching Jayden Reid play well another day to sort of
pick where he wanted to take some shots on with how cheap he
was and I I can't even where's is where's Marvin Mims on this
chart He doesn't. He doesn't even.
Qualify man because he doesn't run enough routes.
So like we I feel like the whole world was on the they're coming
out of bye week. Sean Payton did some self
scouting. Marvin Mims is going to get some
run this week narrative. And then he looks awesome,
returning kicks and returning punts.
He's like breaking tackles, cutting back across the field on
that kick return where he cut it back across the field and broke
multiple tackles. I was waiting for him to get
caught from behind when he was running horizontal.
Oh yeah, and there's a guy running.
After him and like he was holding the ball normally.
So it's like, please don't fumble, please.
And he keeps. I I'm like he's got to be going
slower. He just broke like 3 tackles,
like he's gonna get caught from behind here and he just refuses
to get caught from behind, man. Like the kid is electric free
Marvin Mims. Free Marvin Mims.
I agree, This is why This is why this is.
Wait, no. That is This is why.
This is why I'm hot. I'm hot 'cause I'm flat.
You. Ain't 'cause you.
This is why we This is why. We.
This is why we This is why we.