I think for Christmas we need to get you new internet.
We need to get Gretsch a new computer.
He said he's running a few minutes late because his
computer is a quote-unquote, real piece of shit, right now.
What's going on with all your guys is tech support here?
Well, some of its the computer for me because, you know, as you
can see, now I'm moving. I'm Taking my mouth's, you know,
synced up with my words. It's pretty great.
It's pretty wild. It's because I just closed out a
ton of tab so it's not just the internet.
Although the Internet it's not ideal but it's also the stress
that I put my computer under, as I'm writing, my article for NBC
Sports Edge Water, check it out, it's a great article, I will
say, I remember so like my process now for DFS is I've
talked about this on my shows where like because I do a first
looks a A show. I do this wall cast.
I do my Friday show. I like men in black, like,
Zapped myself after each show. Just be like, whatever, like,
especially today, right? We like talked about this hours
on this mocha slides going to fucking change nine times over
before. So it's like, I talk about
whatever information we have at the time and then it's just
fucking forget it, but my new ritual is on Saturday nights.
I like to read your article and take notes down as I'm reading
it. And then, once I update, All my
information on Sunday cross-reference it with I just
basically write down the names that you have a lien for like he
set up for a good spot or I don't like this guy here and
then it just helps me kind of like triangulate.
Hey this is a low own guy and Pat like some it's how I got
Donovan people's Jones. It will light up last week and
he was like one of the best pump plays on the Slate.
So this is me saying if you can find a way to marry, you know,
the numbers with with Pat stuff, which is so good.
I highly recommend it and that's like how I do it myself.
Is that I'm Like I'm not coming it like Sutton was one of the
guys that I liked in the walkthrough and just so people
know like I have not looked at salaries, I'm not saying this
and that like this isn't like you know he's a good play on
DraftKings. I don't know what a salary is.
Then I went to I went over to DraftKings and I was thinking
like, okay like something could be interesting and obviously
that wouldn't have panned out anyway but you know his salary
like he's like what $200 less than Judy?
I was like, well I'm playing 0% sudden now there's no chance of
that. So it's you immediately have to
talk like my process for is like I I do all the stuff then I go
over for what I'm going to do when I have to toss out like 60%
of right off the bat and then you toss that another 20%
because ownership or whatever, and then you get down, you're
like, but hey, that's still like a decent amount of stuff that
you can use. So I'm like the same way or the
opposite way with like the swole cast because I update my
spreadsheet you know where I'm looking at ceiling projections
early ownership projections. Normally only awesomo will have
early ownership projections out on like a Wednesday morning and
Few other sources. It's so like, I'll have it take
on this? Well, cast, I remember it from
like, six weeks ago and I brought up like tight end, and I
was like, Johnny Smith, like looks pretty good because I was
just literally looking at the points, per dollar, value based
on Leone's projection and Davis was like here and, like, stick
snaps last week and like, I don't know what to say other
than like, I'm just looking at the projection relative to his
salary right now and his ownership and it looks fine.
I don't know what more you want me to say.
I went through this later. Good.
No, no, go for it. I was just saying like I
normally don't have the experience of that you have with
the early look shows. I mean, you've moved it back
because this will cast, you've talked about how that's kind of
an early like a first-look show in a way but you're actually now
doing a true First Look show with for Pat Mayo's channel,
right? Yeah I do that on.
I record that on Monday afternoon and I've like I'm
willing to improv in blue and fly by the seat of my pants but
I do like 30 minutes ahead of time.
Roto Grinders will have like the most bare-bones projections up
early. Sometimes, they don't even have
all the players projected, but they'll have like, I think they
just have a default algorithm. That's almost like qb1 running
back one and then probably some kind of DVP adjusted thing and
it's so I'll go through that. And but the second I do that
show, I'm like this was the most useless information.
And that the top of that show I'm always like, caveat lot
change. Jizz covid, injuries, new team
of totals like, take this with a grain of salt.
First Look, the Monday afternoon.
Let's go. Wonderful.
So early, so early. Do you know what and all but
sometimes I'll look at something.
I'll be like holy fuck Cooper, cuffs 9600, haha, yeah, that's
it. Yeah, then grabs.
How we doing, buddy? I mean, just pissed off of my
bullshit ass computer, but otherwise, you look great.
Hey guys. That was struck.
That was struggling with his computer.
Right? Before we started, you said for
Christmas, we got to get it. We gotta upgrade all of us.
Well, it's funny. I went Cyber Monday.
I went and looked around a bunch but it's just you know I mean
don't they know. It's the busiest football.
We get a year. Best EFS like beer, I mean,
really think it's not enough time to make a decision.
It is the best. If asleep.
It's doesn't seem like a great one.
No, Thanksgiving. Week.
When supercells, my wife is sending me stuff because I've
been complaining about my computer and I would find you
think because, you know, football, I prefer I remember,
oh, go ahead. Well, just with like the laptop
stuff. What are, what am I even
supposed to get? Because all, I know, I know, I
don't know, like, what specs actually need, here's what I
think that. I need a ton of ram.
I think Ram is, what solves the issue is Ram, would solve the
issue, but I always think gotta get the most RAM available,
that's all. And then beyond that, I don't
know. So anything that's what I was
gonna say to you, that's what tilted me.
So it was like back in March and I remember I was doing a club,
Top Shot episode and I got the stream yard connectivity issue
and so my screen went like really blurry and everyone's
like pixelated Pete. And I hate that nickname and I
basically made it my life's Mission.
I was like, I'm going to fix this and I swear to God up until
this point, I have changed everything.
I got a new pc. New router, a new modem.
I upgraded, my internet. It was like, I don't know what
the variable is, but I'm going to fucking change them all
because I live on the internet recording shows and like I will
tilt my face off, so I don't even really know what the
variable was ultimately, but I was like I have to upgrade
everything. Will you look at it?
So you know you didn't figure it out because your signal has been
quite strong recently it well I so I did so I had a PC that I
hadn't converted over because I was like I'd been a mac guy for
a while and I got used to it and I'd kind of like put it off.
And I finally made the transition about a month ago
from my Mac to a high-powered like gaming type PC that has a
bunch of RAM. And so now I've been pretty
happy with the results. Okay, but I do think it's a
good. It's a good investment.
Assessment, I mean, what happened on?
Did you guys have an eventful lolz this week?
Yeah. I'm seeing people posting stuff
that been the Bettors been exposed was, it was you guys, is
that today? It was that an hour ago?
It was an hour ago. Yeah, it was it was, it was, it
was exciting. Are you familiar with been the
better? Yeah, I'm familiar with him but
I'm not like other than the fact that he's, you know, this
Twitter account that is, you know, terrible.
But yeah, I don't, I don't want to let this like go.
Full Top Shot brain spilling over into this, but the tldr is,
he, he's actually a parody account and bright.
And I knew about this for about a month, but he recently over
the weekend had a suicide threat and then we're like, aw, hell
no. Like once you go to that realm,
like it's no longer funny. Like it's no good and so we
decided. All right, we'll do our exposing
then the better as a troll and we exposed to it was and in all
of that jazz. So yeah the the suicide threat
was was a no-go for us. Us.
Yeah, for sure. But yeah, I think I saw the 5K
thing with Empire maker. Well, yeah.
This weekend. Yeah.
So Empire maker, who big DFS guy?
If you ship Chasers aren't familiar with him and he's done
these kind of like free roles in the past where he did this thing
called stake a fish and he did a challenge.
He's like whoever can send me the most absurd like bong,
smoking video, all stay You and the NBA Thunderdome that night
like a five thousand dollar entry because he's just a whale
who can just offer up freerolls on Twitter for entertainment.
So he's done stuff like this before.
He saw the been the better stuff on Saturday.
There was a UFC fight, and I think he just said, hey, if you
nail the next three picks, the next three fights, I'll freeroll
you 5000. And also people have been Oppo
bedding, then the better because his pics are so bad, they bet
the opposite. So I think in Empire maker he's
like I'll get Twitter entertainment, I'll bet the
opposite of you. And you know we'll have some
fun. So he does that.
Then the better goes 0 for 3 I assume Empire maker raked
betting the opposite of him. Then he said been the better was
doing woe is me. Blah, blah, blah.
And a maker said, I'll do it for the main slate for Sunday
football. You pick three games against the
spread five thousand dollar free roll, then hit it.
He bet Seahawks cover sheets to cover in bucks to cover.
He got there and overtime and then he The Empire makers.
Like all right, I'll settle up. What's your PayPal?
He's like, I don't have a PayPal.
Like, my PayPal is frozen and so Empire makers.
Like, what do you fuck you? Like, what are you talking
about? Your it's so he starts dming me,
then the better. Does he Empire messages Brian
and Empire makers? Just like so fed up with his
bullshit? Like what do you mean?
I can't send you money over PayPal that he blocks been the
better and this is when been the better did this suicidal threat
where he's like, I swear to God if I don't get my money, I'll
just end it. You guys will never see.
Me again, like I'm not dealing with this and then Ben and then
Empire makers like oh shit, like I don't want this on my hands
and he reached out to Brian and sent the money to Brian and
Brian was able to get the money to bend the better, but we had
kind of known about this for a while and we're like, once
you're manipulating someone, you know, with a suicide threat to
get your 5000, like The Jig Is up.
And so what we did in our expose, with tweet old tweets,
and kind of exposing his posting patterns and all this stuff.
So we We out in the garage and it's a fun.
It's a fun episode. It's unfortunate because it was
a good bit, but he wait, he he flew too close to the Sun.
Is that Bart Baker pissed though?
Did he do was a bit, is O'Brien like acid, he's like, hey, like
I think he mentioned to him that we think it's a troll and he
didn't respond to Brian about it so I don't know.
That's not, I mean, that's kind of interesting if he's like,
playing up to be a terrible better and then he's like,
hustling guys in 25K freerolls, that he wins them.
That's you know, I don't know about that hustling.
It is word. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It was funny. I put in the Discord because I
want to try to put together like a video, a highlight video of
stuff just from out from throughout the year from like
all the shows I've been on and multiple people requested the
Top Shot brain. Sewed of ship Chase egg or Pat
dye which is like zoning out. Looking at her Top Shot accounts
and credit just like what the fuck is?
I think that T I think the Topshop bring team won the
league. That's what you do?
Yeah I don't think so man. Topshop Brian had to have been.
Okay, maybe it was the same one. I don't think it's the same one.
I think we had high should pull this one up because we did
finish first in this best ball Slim.
Him that we drafted, it is. I gotta go, I gotta I gotta like
sort of confess. I had no idea that you guys were
so Topshop braid. I was just trying to like make a
joke and then both of you guys are like, yeah, that's exactly
what we're doing. No, you take all this out.
You called us out because I was totally measure.
So now what are you looking at? That's all you've been talking
about lately and but you both like admitted to it right away.
I did not actually think that was what you were doing.
Of this is a this is this is the team we drafted way back when
the kid'll pits team Ivy this team is so fun.
DJ more Mike Williams CD Lami, you Bateman Parker at running
back if God if we can just get Swift Back Gibson and this was
when Gibson was going, I want to say in like the early third.
We took it so you put the board. I think ya round and Swift.
Third round, I believe. I think.
Yeah, let me let me get this up here.
No we took Swift second round Gibson Theater and then it
flipped off which should have been a clue.
We should have been even higher on Swift's.
You let me early in the are, you know, it's real light.
We could have been more in. Yeah, look at this Gibson at 37.
I like Gibson a 27 way but that's a lot.
Ha ha ha. I know seven.
I mean like, look at that was awesome.
That's great. Well, it's pre-draft but still I
mean he's never had that he did. But guys, didn't I what was the
mckissack play was like anti handcuffed but that was, that
was brilliant. Do you think Gibson's rookie?
Oh shit. Ha ha ha.
I've got been the better brain tonight.
So I talked about how in best but I mean this is an
interesting one that people should look at Marco.
I remember, one of the ones we were talking about was Jonathan
Taylor and the heme Heinz from last year where if you get the
the early down back and pass catching back in the same
offense, they actually sort of anti correlating the way that's
good for most people. You're going to get a good week
depending on game script from either of them and so I think
that was part of why we did that and it's probably worked out
like they know, It was a I think it was a screw-up if I ever
call. I mean, we because it became a
bit of the offseason that we'd end up drafting the Handcuff
without meaning to. So, I don't think it was, it was
intentionally were also looked at what else can a brain thing?
We were also definitely looking at pass catcher specifically,
because that's something I love about early.
Best balls, though, the guys that like number one, they seem
to fall later in the early offseason, but they're the ones
that have like the most secure roles like we took Hines and
yeah, gesek thinking like their atp's are going to be there in
August, like those guys don't get Drafted to come take their
role because it's not an important enough role, they're
just, you know, but they still had well, I would like a clip of
us talking about why we made these pics now versus us
actually making them picks because I think that you have a
tendency to be like well you know that's catching packs and
everything. Well, I don't think anybody like
Pete Got Dirt we have Gibson already.
Well I remember relying on you guys like with the Kyle pit
stuff. You guys are like the students
just a generational. Hi, Tim Prospect, you gotta take
him in the ninth round. Like I'm pretty sure I remember
that bike Williams in the 14th route.
I mean I mean Todd Gurley and the 10th look at these values,
you know? I mean this is like a great
example and I mean, this debate is going to get litigated all
offseason. I mean, you can build super
teams early on in the season and if you had a portfolio of teams
that you drafted and fucking January or whatever your
advance, Rate would be shitty but you'd have a few fucking
super teams and that's like the whole thing with drafting early.
Like and I look at my like, puppy, 1 2 and 3, and it plays
out that same way. My puppy want Advance rate is
atrocious. My puppy.
Three Advance rate is so good. It's at like 38 percent and yet,
my puppy one is at, like, 14 percent and I prefer my puppy.
One teams, my best teams like there's fucking super teams
there. Yeah, the best thing about this
team that we did, I actually do. I don't know, I mean I'm I'm
misremembering but I do sort of remember this.
Remember I wrote it up in my sub stack to Pat.
You mentioned that when you drop could be right by the way, I
don't actually remember. So you could be totally right?
But You mentioned that we want to be on the rookie.
So we took pits and we took definitely the end.
We took feltman Marshall and Bateman in the basement.
Yeah, they've been was a great value.
Obviously ends up getting hurt but if he doesn't get hurt he's
like, you know, eighth ninth round pick like all these guys
ended up going, especially Marshall went a lot higher
Felton didn't but this is before any of these guys were drafted,
we didn't know where they're playing.
We didn't know any of that stuff obviously and and then the other
thing we did was take like second-year players.
Rookie like you know Swift get part of the reason Gibson went
there. Like you know, he's just He's
coming off his rookie year. Lamb just coming off as a rookie
years goes in the fifth round. He's in the third round by
biologists. You know I you seventh round he
was in the fifth round by August like take young dudes.
If you're going to build an early profile, I mean people are
gonna be dropped from these in a month or two so it's yeah, you
really can't like overestimate how much some of these atp's can
change, you know? So like especially in the young
guys, right? Like there's just going to be a
lot of hype is interesting that People actually didn't see that
much hype. But, but like Higgins, moved up.
But by almost two rounds land moved up by like three rounds.
Like you're I mean, she look at Chase, you know, I mean I wasn't
telling movement yeah the it is interesting.
Mentioning Evan mentions seventh round Cooper cup like we finish
first in this league and it also goes to show you know we ran
really Pure in in in avoiding the land mines.
Like even a seventh-round, Cooper cup, couldn't wait you in
the league because you had Christian McCaffrey missed, most
of the Season Calvin Ridley missed.
Most of the season, it's hard to recover from that.
There are a lot of his late-round tight, in picks
didn't hit. It's just crazy.
How this stuff shakes out, like, you have to run pure as well.
Like art are injury rate on. This is pretty nice.
Yeah. But you know, I like the stuff
and I look at, like, my best ball things.
Part of it was that I bought that this must be like a
generational, rookie quarterback class because that's what, you
know, the draft Community thought and that's how they were
drafted in the NFL draft and it did not turn out to be the case.
So that hurt. So I you know, a lot of my
quarterback selections, I leaned on the rookies, I was like, oh
that's the cheat code. So that's not going to work out.
Great. But overall, I also think I just
kind of flew too close to the Sun with my quarterback play.
And like seeing this like Herbert Stafford.
Boom, let's wish I had more Herbert Stafford teams.
You know, like I never did that again.
Has on. It's like, all right Herbert
Darnell, baby. Like I just, I don't, what am I
do? Like, what's the upside?
I'm getting from that. I think I talked myself into the
upside of like, finding a late-round court.
And it's like, you know what? Yes, there is upside.
But there's also a lot of risk and you're not even getting that
much upside for that risk. So and you got I pulled up my My
article on because it's just looking through and we did talk
about the the pass catching backs.
All this is about it. We've now gone to Rico and stuff
that was a classic play everyone to look at.
They are actually more volatile on a weekly basis.
We like that and basketball than also just like the role stuff.
But this is the layers are other Latrobe.
Big zit gluten Rashad Bateman incoming rookie with great
metrics? Yeah, Tre a couple other guys,
so I shared some tips. Yeah.
Didn't you felt There's a day but I've never heard so eyeball
it that he liked explains it and then I don't pick.
Mod is God. You guys cool with their sores
on your, yeah. Google it.
What's the biggest? Check it out.
This is our drafting past Elegance about guys.
It does. I can't believe my Twitter day
was PD packs. It had my Philip Rivers, fat
head with a mask on over it IV. Talk about dating ourselves are
so long here. It's been quite a year.
It is, it is fucking crazy. How long of a year?
It has, it has been. So it's not over, it's not over
15, but I, I do, I do want to mention that point because that
is one thing that stings about, you know, the, the best ball
teams you mentioned like the Herbert Stafford, which
obviously looks awesome and how bad late-round, He has been this
year from a, from a best ball perspective and like all the
rookies, you know, that Lawrence Fields lanced here, that we're
targeting the darn old Fitzpatrick, tear like there
were a lot of us that were excited about like panthers
stacks and in Washington football team Stax, it's been
really tough and I was the same as you.
I was like fucking yolo, I'll take one Elite quarterback and
I'll patch it together with a QB a rookie or one of those guys in
like those teams just have bad Advanced rates.
Yeah. And the other thing is like, you
know, laying around quarterback. Didn't work out great.
But you know, with those teams if you have like even like a
Lawrence or I don't know someone not absolutely terrible.
And then you just added whence and rocker for Roethlisberger's
our third quarterback are always there.
Who always free, you know, like you didn't need to There
actually were guys who gave you usable points in the last round,
if you just thought, like maybe Donald isn't enough as my
quarterback to which by the way like years of best ball research
show that he's normally not. And I think I was kind of like,
well, any more upset anymore upside, I obviously didn't do a
lot of best ball, that's all we talked about a lot in the
offseason, but one of the things that I thought was I mean, we
talked about on the show a lot but like this idea that you have
to draft like you're right, I think in DFS you have to build
lineups, like you're right. But we have so much more known
in the in an individual week in an NFL season are so much chaos
that like, yeah, you could be too fragile to me spots.
That's kind of what you're saying like.
Yeah, exactly. You're saying that you're,
you're drafting like, you're right with only two, cubies or
two tight ends or whatever, but like it's really hard to
navigate an NFL season and not have significant injuries or
Boston an entire draft, like that's why I mean, In seasonal,
our lineups don't look anything now like they did on draft day.
We can go back to our seasonal drafts and be like that.
None of these guys aren't team anymore, you know?
I mean, yeah, it's I think you need to build in contingency
still even though it seems like it's wasted pets and also, just
like, you didn't spend that much on the 15th round quarterback in
the first place, so you don't need to be right there.
Yeah, need to be right with one of the two picks, or 16th or 18.
I will say to like I was very honest with myself about being
BM like in it's the same way I play DFS.
Where it's like, I want to get first in when you look at the
way BBM to is structured and what you have to do to navigate
that, that I do think that hype kind of fragile QB is the play
and I even remember like I feel, I think we were honest with
ourselves about Trey, Lance, we knew it was a high-risk,
high-reward play, it was an asymmetric bet, most of the
time, it loses but when it hits it hits in.
Such a big way for you and so I'm okay like seeing that my
Advance rate is lower knowing that we made a concentrated bet
on those rookie, cubies we knew they were asymmetric bets.
They didn't hit that was well within the range of outcomes and
like yeah, the fucking Advance rate is going to be lower
because we're trying to win a fucking Millie maker.
We have to dance through a shit ton of teams.
If your goal is to advance the most amount of teams fucking
draft three, cubies draft, three, tight ends.
Draft a bunch of running. Backs are a knock yourself out,
but your And finish Equity is going to be massively lower than
the rest of us. Yeah, that's a good point.
I think that's probably true. But quarterback, supposition.
We're like what you were getting with Lance wasn't necessarily
that much higher ceiling than what you're getting with hurts
and hurts was going like the ninth.
So you know you're getting a tiny bit of a discount, maybe
the 10th or 11th with Lance but you know, I fancy douche years
ago, had an article about Out like risk-seeking versus upside
and like just trying to make sure you're not like just
seeking risk when you're actually miss, killing isn't
necessarily all that much higher.
And that's kind of the stuff. I just want to do a better job
of thinking through next year because you can, you can see
easy to talk yourself into the ceiling on unknowns with, you
know, like a profile like Lance Big Arm can run, but and I think
he was, he was like a great pick in the 13th to 14th round, but
he got a lot more expensive than that.
You know, and then you did put yourself in a position where you
couldn't, you couldn't really maybe or you could take a third
but you didn't feels good about taking a third.
It is challenging though because yeah he didn't play that.
I mean I think that was a sub 50 percent outcome.
I don't think it was like a really small outcome but it like
the fact that he didn't, he's got one start through week, 15
14 or whatever, we probably have 35% 40% outcome.
It wasn't likely because his me to recall so kind of like
coincided with his Tunity like right and he didn't play well
you get the one start. Didn't go well and like and so
it's kind of just like played out weird.
Yeah I agree in the 35 and 40 or whatever that say it's 50/50 the
other 50% of times when he plays the ceiling probably was there
for family. Like look at taysom Hill these
last couple weeks or whatever like we would have seen the
stuff like that from Lance. Right?
And so I don't know that the BET was you know I know and I don't
think and like I'm I'm gonna be drafting Lansing next year.
Yeah, you know like I've still been on the profile.
I'll I just I just want to like, do I just, I don't know that
it's like what, especially quarterback, where we know that
there's not going to be necessarily these huge shoot
separators and it's really just about like I do think that
there's at quarterback like floor probably matters to some
extent where it's just like hey man get get get some points in
there because there's not even that many separators it this
this is a great Point by Nick and I do think it plays into you
have to be realistic. Talk about your goals.
I think the trade-off for not drafting 3.
QBs is you get shares of guys. Like the monster which is, is
literally the thesis of the play and for some people, you know, I
have Cordarrelle, Patterson, not enough teams, but I have them on
a handful of teams. Like, that's, that's the kind of
guy I add, when you're not getting a third quarterback, and
you know, that the third quarterback raises the floor.
And, you know, it's like, it's like a GP mentality, right?
Like you're taking the 1% guy, I've got him in people's Jones
gets loose for to 75 yard touchdown.
You win the GBP most times he doesn't and you know Jamison
Crowder gets 4480 and you cash. But so I guess the way that I
was thinking about when I was talking about sort of not being
too fragile, too many spots is that it's not so much about
hitting. Like, I don't know if the
discussion is necessarily just about that 18th round pick like
those guys are matter. Obviously, you want to have some
exposure to them and you're getting more opportunity to find
some exposure to them when you're taking more receivers and
running backs on every team and not taking third TVs.
But Really it comes down to the team that has Cooper cup and
Jonathan Taylor and Debo in your profile.
How did that one? Wind up basically?
Right. And so right right?
I've, you know, you want it, you want that thing to have great
quarterbacks or whatever. But if that team had, it was a
to quarterback built. It had all those players in the
high leverage rounds. The one where you were, you hit
on everything in the big rounds, and you only have two
quarterback build, and it was Lance.
And, you know, Russell Wilson, you're like, Fuck.
I wish I will ya. And, you know, you'll get you,
that'll having you can have like, like Russ and, and hurts
or something, and you're like, well, I'm not getting out of
this week, you know. So, you know, that wouldn't be
even an example of this. So, you just, you're gonna have
bad luck, but I do think I, and I have like, I have a lot of
teams like those where I'm like, oh, yeah.
And I got their names, like, their names, like, Taylor Swift.
I'm like, okay, let's go and then you go and it's like now
you fucked yourself a quarterback.
It's so, It just when you I don't know to me it's like how
many things are you trying to get right.
You know and it's I know that you're trying to build super
teams but if you happen to hit on Taylor and cup and Debo at
that, but I guess it's like yeah I suppose and I guess I'm not
saying the three quarterback thing necessarily I was saying
it kind of the context of because I drafted a lot of Lance
because I drafted a lot of fields and Lawrence and Arnold
they, it is nice. When I was like, oh, I dropped
it. Blends in this one.
That really? That's why this team events
Advance because I dropped it once.
But I also think that One thing I did is that I went to in on
the strategy of going after the rookie quarterbacks are guys
that I thought were undervalued a quarterback and I should have
just drafted more two quarterbacks with an early
quarterback. So I think I kind of because
like I maybe I'm like skeptical in retrospect as like it was
there really even that much of an edge there like if the year
turned out the way we were hoping How's that is probably an
Internet? It's definitely not teams like
think about a profile that has a lot of lands and a lot.
I mean him. Lance is a smash.
Yeah. Maintenance smash.
You have a lot of configurations with lands now like yeah.
That's probably not just like you.
That's the bet you made you know.
But I guess I'd rather how everything.
Yeah, I guess. I'm like, why did I do that at
quarterback? We're like, I should have done.
I would feel better if I had gone, like, really in on You
know, like a wide receiver or a running back play that way
because if you're, if you had like, just a ton of, you know,
Taylor or something, or even Swift who's now hurting, is it
going to be that guy? But if you had a ton of you
saying, I'm saying, like, I don't even know that the, the
payoff was, was quite worth it. Mmm.
Yeah. I, I just think you have to be
realistic about what, your, what your goals are with those.
Yeah, those tournaments, like you can build way more High
floor, constructions, Based on that, when we were like, the
whole fucking concept of hyper fragile, you know what, we're
taking, you know, 2410, what is the math 2410 to builds here?
I mean, like you're taking on a lot of risk, trying to thread
that needle and hit that perfect combination.
Like when I look at my 2410, two teams, as Chris mentioned here,
that have advanced it like has Taylor Swift, James, Conner, and
Pollard on it like those, I fucking hit the nuts on those
four running backs. And that, that's what you're
trying to do, right? And I think of it in the same
way when I play Showdown and I play the three dollar twenty
Max, that has 160 thousand people in it and there's
multiple paths to being unique, right?
Like, you can leave salary on the table, you can take fucking
Ben's Corona core, the 3rd string tight end or you can get
like a different construction than people.
There's different paths, you can take and all of those are
helping you get unique so that you can advance through the
playoffs. And that's another Knight
dynamic dynamic to I saw by him for talking about this, where he
was Excited about is teams that advanced that doesn't have
Jonathan Taylor and kittel and Debo because he knows that's
going to be unique to, the majority of teams that advanced.
Like, that's why you gotta get a lot right to win this million
dollars. Yes, 100%.
Yeah. Yeah, and I guess the monster
team thing will be an interesting cuz we're not done,
right? So you know the advanced rates
First, the Monster team debate, you know we'll go on probably
four years because it's I think it's a really interesting thing
of like would you like you probably would shave off a
couple points off your, you know, expected Advance rate to
to have? If someone told you like, you
know, you'll Advance like 2% less teams but they'll be like
monster. Seems you probably do that, but
where is that? Where is that line?
Like, where is it? You know, where are you giving
up too much versus, you know what I mean?
Like I think and part of me just feels like and I think I think
Justin hurts it has more on the advanced and I think Leo needs
more on the advanced side of the argument but there is something
appealing of like just get as many teams in as you can and
then let the Madness begin. Yeah.
Yeah I think I do think that that's the that's the riddle
we're trying to crack. Where is that line of pushing
the uniqueness The Edge verse, you know, being over-leveraged,
right? Like you're not going to play
three, you know, wide receiver threes in a, in the Millie maker
because you know, that the ceiling isn't there that they
all can get 30 plus points. But one of those guys that David
people's Jones examples could theoretically get there and it I
think if If we can look back with honest retrospection, maybe
we push that limit a little too much sometimes with them but I
do think that I feel comfortable with my Advance rate relative to
how my teams were constructed. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
What's up? Let's get one through here.
Huh? It went through.
Yeah, it'll be it'll be interesting to see Ben.
Where did you win it up? Only being able to just kind of
get our shared ship chasing action, right?
For as far as best ball. Yeah, pretty much.
I figured out way too late. That through my DK account, I
could do some and I did a couple of the very last like that, like
the day of the Thursday night football game, I did a couple.
Yeah. It's like oh yeah I would have
I'm going to fire a couple off, I don't think they did.
Well I don't even remember honestly and one point but I
mean they've been fucking with my Projector winnings every
week. Do you guys have to deal with
that every single? We do?
It's, yeah, I haven't I've been pretty good about not sweating
by teams, but the points have been all over the map with the
life starring. Yeah, it'll be fun to see and
and we'll see how things shake out and one thing to and I
remember even the underdog guys like Hayden and Josh, we're
talking how it'll be so much more fun to have the data.
After this year, is we're going to, it's still such a unique
format and it's still in its nascent.
See as far as how much data we have on how to attack a
structure like this, like a lot of us were projecting and doing
guesswork. And you know, I think all of us
kind of sighted. No with buying for to on taking
a more hyper fragile, approach knowing that it was a more Milly
maker style contest. And we will see, you know what,
ultimately well and one of the things we talked about in our
shows which I think was sharp and it's to your point was that
was this this and trying to figure out what the lessons of
next year were this year and being on them this right?
Like we talked about this in July and August, I trying to
figure out what people are going to, that's what you're trying to
do, because like the data is gonna come in and There's going
to be new, you know, widely accepted approaches or tweaks.
And so it's like, well, what do we think is going to actually
happen in this tournament? That's going to change people's
approaches? How do we, how do we apply this
year? You know, before it actually
happens and this is the funny thing.
You see people massively overreact, fuck the data.
I've never doing hyper fragile again.
I finished fifth in the in one of the underdog tournaments last
year with a true zero. Our B Team people are going to
react and that's where we're going to have our Edge.
Right, like we're going to see people feel like a fragile
worked out, great. Oh, they did they did that.
I'd say people are tilting right now.
I mean Leone published the win rates on establish the run in 0
RB and Hyper fragile were the dominant strategy for 2020 like
that was objective but I mean for this year, I feel like hyper
hyper fragile was was great. Like, especially if you pushed
it a little bit. Like I was doing like hyper
February. I'd add a Connor or Pollard is
my last, there wasn't enough Legend.
Upside, right? And then there was the Connors
and and the for Nets in the Pollard's that?
Yeah. Sure.
People are, you know, bombing about that and there was enough.
Mrs. If you guys can and you can do those, uh, if you were heavy
on, see eh. If you're a heavy on, you know,
a lot of those types of backs and you're probably like this
suck, right? That's, that's very true.
Yeah. I mean this was a year to where
I mean Pat and I had the team we drafted live in Vegas where we
took CH over, Austin Eckler and it's like if we hit it does the
hamstring thing. Because of because of a didn't
have to wait for watching. Yeah, we thought he might be.
I don't think there's gonna be a lot of great information from
this year. The data, I think it's going to
show that 0 or B could have one or heroic be could have one or
hyper fragile could have one or because yeah, been hits and
misses like it there hasn't. I mean it felt extreme in terms
of the injury stuff, but I also think there's a lesson in that
as well because like some years we overreacted the lessons from
the past years. You know, we've talked about
this before to like the years where late-round tight ends
Asheville Jordan. Reed smashed out of nowhere and,
you know, Tyler eifert was a light round the kid'll the next
year when those guys were all like 10th rounders and later
than we were like yeah you can get so much upside from
late-round tight ends and you I mean you still can there's
something there like Schultz and knocks and those guys have hit
this year but you're not guaranteed like it's hard to be
the overall title and one from from nowhere Ville, right?
And so, like, I think you can overreact the data and as well
in small sample because it's Like each season is basically
like one DFS week. I mean and then the right the
league is changing and draft chat, Trends are changing and
it's like we don't this one day Fest week.
That's the crazy thing we argue about one DFS week.
Like we quite like imagine if we had to argue about week one for
a whole year, like right mother, I've talked with Brian about
this on lulls, you can have an edge to a massive degree in the
Millie maker. You could be 2 percent 3 percent
better than the entire field and Not realize your Edge over five
seasons of Max entering the Millie maker every single week.
Like dr. Gary who apparently softball
Family Maker win this year would have been two in a row, I also
RBX 88 again, there's lightning in a bottle but I mean that that
point holds true for these like be pretty sick if you'd won it
twice. I mean I would be concerned if I
was playing 12-man cash game. Best ball tournaments in my win
rate was that you know 70% or whatever.
But I am not concerned. And in a milli maker best
balkon. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah. One thing, I am curious about,
I'd love to see the data on this is Advance rate by in terms of
the structural Advanced rates by month.
Because I think that there must have been a higher rate of
advanced sort of it of advanced 40 running back.
In the, in the early months, right?
There's just so much K. On the other hand, you could
have gotten some of these backs who like, we've talked about
like third round, Gibson and stuff.
So the atp's were all over the place.
Maybe were able to assemble some weird teams that you wouldn't
have gotten later, but that definitely, because like, I even
started to do more of hyper fragile like more, true hyper
fragile. In, some of my last teams I
started to get like, Josh Jacobs.
Like I have a, I have a decent amount of Judge Jacobs from like
late August early September, because he was going in the
Route and it's like, all right. Well, then, you know, at this
point, if I'm doing hyper fragile build, you know, I can
add him as my rb3, or whatever in that is my firm.
I like personal like, biggest takeaway of how I want to
approach breast, best ball breast ball.
I have no structural concerns, but detaching.
Your emotion from the players you like in scooping the values
based on that current snapshot of whatever sentiment is then.
Within those structures is the key, right?
Because II struggle with like what Pat was saying.
Like, fuck take Josh Jacobs in the six and sometimes that burns
you right because there were discounts on Miles Gaskin and
Mike Davis like those discounts did appear at times.
But like in general, I think building your portfolio around
buying a teepee values while sticking within the structures
of your draft is is really just the best way to play it.
I almost want to this like this doesn't have any Actual value
with this through what I'm about to suggest but I think it might
have some psychological value at least for me but I would it
would be an interesting exercise to go through.
Instead of ranking players to go through and assign each player a
draft King salary at which you would be interested in playing
them and then convert ATP, value like to DraftKings salary and
then you can go like, you know what I mean?
Because then you're able to say, like, you know, you're the one
who said that, like Josh, Jacob's actually pretty sweet
play at basically the mid 60's pick or whatever, because that's
the salary it, you know what I mean?
Like you can just a way of like because I actually don't have
that much of a problem being dispassionate, when I'm setting
DraftKings lineups, like I really don't.
I'm sorry, I'm the same way I have a harder time with best
ball like my biases. Then I yeah and DraftKings.
I'll play whatever fucking dust ball.
I just stare at the numbers. But in the middle of the Season,
I'm like, how is Miko Hardman going in the ninth round?
Oh, guy's house. We go hard to go to the night
through. Yeah.
And it's like, yeah.
And this also caused some of that.
I think like me Cole, Harmon, like, if we were going to sign
him a DraftKings seller before the season, It would have been
like, 4950 200, you know, wouldn't have been 6000, you
know. So I think you can kind of just,
I don't know. Like I'm just trying to figure
out ways to take the DFS. I where I've had really, no
problem being, I guess. Nope.
Not no problem. But over time I've gotten to the
point where I'm kind of like you or I'll have liens but those
liens come in like I think after the math they're like the icing
on the cake in a way that I think is probably a better
process which much harder to have.
Of the biases at Bay and best ball or just any kind of
season-long draft for whatever reason.
Well, I mean part of the reason is in DFS, you know if you lose
you can turn on a plate again. The next week in Seas act on its
the whole fucking year that you're basing.
It on, you know, the slope a off means that you want, you know,
you want to have takes more more, you or yes, for sure.
You can't like tinker, and then get results and then Tinker the
next week and be like, yeah, I am gonna play me Cole Harbour
to, then he sucks. It seemed like, okay, we'll play
be carbon next week, you know? And then move right, right?
The, it also like, I feel like a really good example of this in a
microcosm, is take Elijah more, right?
He got incredible steam, you know, he was a great Prospect,
had a great Prospect profile got it.
He was the talk of Jets camp. His ATP was getting almost
outrageous. Like by mid August late August,
he was going to like the eighth. Ninth round has a really slow
start. Then like gets hurt.
He's not doing anything for your team's, then he comes on and
we're all sitting here, like, holy shit.
This guy's the fucking League winner like this.
Dude, if you have him as your you know wide receiver five or
six like your fucking shipping these leagues and then he gets
hurt and he's done for the year like that's the best ball
experience in a nutshell and to me it goes back to being
price-sensitive right. You understand the highs and the
lows of what Elijah more can offer in your trying to get him
on the perfect team? I'm where you advance in each
unique and he carries you but there's so much risk.
Maybe he doesn't get you there because he's hurt.
Maybe he gets really hurt again. Maybe he's bad.
Like I feel like that's just a good kind of example of of the
kind of. That's a good making.
That's a good one because he almost like you any argument
could be like you should have drafted Elijah more, you
shouldn't have to the lodge where those are the toughest
ones. Because I mean I would say that
the argument for more was always at it could be a late season
League. Well that's kind of the argument
for rookies that come on more, right?
And if Like it was a hit and then he gets hurt like the ones
that you're right on and then you lose to an injury after it's
like I was right on. Those are some of those artists
wants to swallow, man. Yeah, man.
Which by the way, congrats to the Tony people because like I
feel like you guys were right, probably not many watching the
show given given the feet and everything but like, Tony was
looking pretty good. I mean certainly was going to
pay off his best play TP, a big way and you know, Now he's on
the covid listings. Flip side.
You got guys like Leonard fournette.
Like that guy stayed healthy. If that fucker.
Would I got her then you're like yeah I dodged a bullet because
he was going to be a weak one. Yeah.
Although the video stuff in retrospect like it never should
have, we never should've realized like to think that Gio
was somehow an impediment to anyone was, was a leak.
The, I don't know if I buy that runner for not was bad in the
passing game on. Yeah, it was bad, it was bad,
but Geo wasn't actually taken the odd.
That was one of like, My, it's interesting to like, looking at
my teams, like, the first ten rounds, you know, II feel like,
I built strong teams. It's the, the whiffing on the
rookie quarterbacks in the late round, quarterbacks like Donald
and Fitzpatrick, coupled with backfilling, all of my hyper
fragile teams, with the past catching running backs, like a
ton of Nike. Mine's a ton of James White, a
ton of Gio Bernard like those guys.
Just did not hit this year. And part of the thesis of those
guys is that they buoy your team early when you don't have the
Ramon Dre Stevenson's who have broken out yet and this year
they did not Bui your team early.
Hmm. And the so Sam it s like why
don't you just assign an ATP to which should be okay drafting
him because there's basically no ATP that I would assign.
It's rational to Melvin Gordon this year like I just wasn't
gonna do it but like I could have be like I mean there's a
minimum price I'm tracking, you know, and I'm like, Melvin
Gordon wouldn't be priced at the minimum, you know and if Melvin
Gordon was priced it like 4500, I'd be jamming Melvin Gordon,
you know, and just like then then to go.
Okay. Well then if he's, you know,
let's say that works out so 12th round pick like, you know, you
should be drafting Melvin, Gordon, he would fall.
If I remember right to the sum of the like the 10th 11th 12th,
round rangy, find him there sometimes And so just trying to
figure out ways to like convince myself to draft dust balls that
I don't want all my teams in a portfolio.
You should be doing that. I think and I remember there was
some some draft we did with ship chasing where you're talking
about that for now, Gordon would fall, you remember the dress we
do. That would be just all the
Pistons in it and guys would fall forever.
But there was one where I suggested for that and you guys
gave me a Relentless about it, I'd like the 18th round and
you're like, is that if it was for the brand, How dare you?
But if it was a real draft that, I'm sorry, that's like what
that's important at this point. It depended very much.
Depends on the context. I can't remember what it was.
I just remember being like, yeah, that's a good point.
Yeah. Um let's see here.
I got for net. No I was trying to pull up this
one here. Where are you?
Taking Javonte. We kind of had this.
Do we have this discussion last week because everyone came out
with a Javonte 102 takes? I think we had this
conversation. Yeah, we talked about him being.
I mean, it really depends. Like if Melvin, Gordon is a free
agent after the year, if Melvin Gordon's not back, Then, you
know, I think you can talk about him.
The cop for me would probably be like cam Akers.
We're cam Akers was going and so I would have no problem with him
at like the 112 111, 112? Where you at on Javonte?
Yeah. Like if Melvin Gordon's not
there, I think he's Maybe higher than that, man.
I don't know Shawn Shawn said, on our, he had the 10 to take on
our bananas last night, and I was like, she's we're going to
get, we're going to get top 51 Javonte, I mean, especially if
they hit a real quarterback, it's yeah, it'll be interesting.
I don't know, cuz I think we're going to talk ourselves back
into some of the veterans like, you know, Ciara.
Like, if they get a quarterback Camaros, probably going ahead of
him, I would assume. I don't know if we'll be in on
Chimera that high I do. I will still be on CMC.
We talked about him recently, like he's, I'll take him over
javante or any. Yeah, I meanyeah me to anyone,
basically. I mean, he's just a different
animal, but Chimera, and Chimera had Seasons where everything
came together with Breezy. Everything else, just the way
that they've used him this year, shown, I think that's a key
still really unique, but remember earlier this year, when
we like every week were like, they're not throwing on the ball
to treating him as a Workhorse, or give him 25 carries a game.
Like, he's gonna crush it with a career-high in Russia temps,
he's got it, right? I don't think he'd ever had a
250 carry season. I'm pulling up his stats.
Now, committee had never had a 200 carry season as what it was.
He's only played nine games this year because he missed some, you
know, some time of injury. He Said to career highs and he
set his career high in carries then.
Broke it later right season this year and just in single games.
But for the season, he's only played nine games so far because
of these injuries, he's 21 carries behind his career.
High in Russia's already, he's gonna set a career high in
Russia's as well. This year for a season, even
though he's not going to play, he's gonna play 12 games or
something like that. Eben, asked how Williamson go
ahead. Were Taylor's going.
I could see it if Jordans not back because we were still
talking, are we were worried. I think a little bit.
And like, you know, a little bit rationally about Hines, limiting
Taylor in the receiving game. I think we also have to be
realistic that recency bias and playoff performance will greatly
impact this stuff. You know, the Colts, they still
have a chance to make the playoffs.
Like, you know, if you get a big Primetime, playoff game from
Jonathan, Taylor unions where he's gone last year, like it
where it Williams could go, where.
But but, oh sorry. Okay, I got you.
The better way to Make that Camaro point is he had never had
more than 13 carries in a game average. 13 carries per game in
a season. He said 19.2 this year.
Wow, and he's always had at least five catches in per game
in every season and at least five point four.
Since his second year at five point one is a rookie 5.45
Point. 85.5, those are really Elite numbers.
He's a 4.0 this year, like, you know, right at 4.0 like it
doesn't sound like it's that big of a gap.
It's one and a half or more to some of these numbers.
He could be down in the threes by the end of this year.
I mean that's a pretty matte like that's the difference
between having real receiving upside and being like a 50, 60
catch guy compare. You know, it was obviously have
the 80 catches every year that everyone talks about anyway.
I mean his profiles different this year and I wonder if that
carries over It is different this year and he's not been
nearly as efficient as a rush or which it's a little concerned
given that he's he's getting to the age where some guys become
more in his profile of like, more of the pure kind of
receiving down guy in, aren't able to do everything.
Yeah, I do. I do think in general.
It's going to be a super. I honestly don't know how it's
going to play out this year. As far as, you know, what is
going to be the metaphor roster construction because Right now,
you can read Twitter in the kind of the take, is everyone just
kind of shrugs and says, if you avoided the landmines and you
hit you know, the five or six League winners then you advance
like I had a tweet. I've been this Boston, you know,
experts League where I have a fucking by with Calvin Ridley
and AJ Brown as my first two picks because I have Cooper Cup
on the team. Like, literally my, I started
both Detroit running backs last week.
That weren't Craig Reynolds and I have a fucking by because
Cooper cups. Bring all the quarterbacks on
the year, like I have, if you have Cooper cup, you have an
extra super Flex spot in a regular League, that's what you
have. I'm in a super Flex Dynasty
league and I was going to say no one would trade me a tight end,
but I've actually barely sent offers, but I did send an offer
to Heaven Silva and he replied that trades are ruining leaks
rejected. My offer did not send the
counter so I guess it's 77 did not enjoy my offer.
Who was for Zach, ertz by the way, I was trying to get Zach.
Restrains generally or Ruining also, he doesn't like
transparently buddy, but he's but he's a GP bro.
Now, congrats on your own, your bank of it.
But I have cup in that league and I'm literally starting.
I started John Bates at tight end in a site in Premium,
superflex League and doesn't matter because I've come, I kind
of like it. Take the trays are ruining
links. I don't have a trade.
I kind of like that was brought you had available graph.
Yeah, that'll work the way. There were so many.
There were some really good comments here.
I wanted to bring up because Nick said I'll be curious to see
what acres and Dobbins ATP starts at.
And then there was also Derrick Henry receive said that would be
a fun one. I think those three are all
super interesting in terms of where the atp's are.
Is it not Fisher backwards? If I was I mean I just read it
like it's yeah well maybe it's Fisher you know.
Let us know what you want to go by.
People don't necessarily send in annotated, you know,
descriptions of their hand and everyone in the chat.
Can you could could we get a system dust?
All right, we got it. The phonetic binary code and it
was just Silver. But the eyes were ones and so
it's just like I can't read it. You surnames on the Internet,
it's killing me. What were we talking about
there? Cooper, come to 30 and then
someone else has suggested kill so Dobbins Acres.
Derrick Henry and kittel. Where you think they go next
year? Ffp.
See I think acres is going to go lower than people are thinking
right now, especially by August. I think there's going to be
enough concern throughout the offseason about his rehab.
I mean, they're they're talking about trying to get Acres back
this year for the playoffs, which would be really
interesting and that would change this, this opinion of
mine. But yeah, I think, as far as you
know, coming back from an Achilles, it's going to be like
look like Marlon Mac all offseason.
It was, it was slow, there's positive reports and stuff, but
it was slow, and I think that's gonna knock him down as begin to
like, May June. I think Acres might be A sixth
seventh round? Pick those other guys are
probably all going to be significantly higher.
The, the other thing that's interesting about Derrick Henry,
I was going to say too is I mean it sounds like he's coming back
to and the Titans are like 99% probability to make the
playoffs. Like we're probably going to see
Derrick Henry in the playoffs, which will go a long way to
determining his ATP. To be like the 104 if he has a
good playoffs, maybe higher. And it's me so hard to know what
to do because his feel like 28 or something.
Yeah, this is, this is a fun one.
I don't know anything about Damien.
Harris has contract situation. Does he have any modules, like
your classic 10 to 12? Yeah, exactly Harris should be
entering his third year. No, this was a third year.
So he's entering his fourth year.
So he will be back, though, in a rookie contract.
So we'll be there. Yeah, that one will be He enters
and again, another I know I keep this isn't like the ultimate cop
out, but the Patriots are expected to win a couple of
playoff games this year. So we'll in Belichick has not
been shy about using whoever, he thinks gives him the best chance
of winning. Like we could see like, an 18
carry games, provide Ray Stevenson in a meaningful
playoff game in Damien Harris, gets relegated to a breather
role. Yeah, our K FD here says that
remind you is going to go where Connor was going and I feel like
Connor started falling at the end.
I think we'll go like a little closer to where Edmonds was
going, or more like Pollard was going.
Like I think you'll get I think would be my general range by
think. I'll get steamed a little bit.
I mean partly because we're going to, we're not going to
shut up about him. We're going to talk about him
non-stop, you kidding me, receive said it is Fisher.
Then someone said James Fisher from Bill stuff No.
No, not that one. Yeah, we're you Stone.
Yeah, it'll it'll be interesting to see how things shake out.
I think it. I think it's going to be the
Wild Wild West early on. As far as people jocking for,
what is the the dominant strategy for 20, you know, 22
best ball drafts. What about Eli Mitchell?
That's a good one. I mean depends his back right
but like it could be anywhere from like the the second or
third round. Honestly I think he feels like
an early fourth round her to me. Yeah.
But it could be bad further if most turns back and healthy and
it sounds like I mean it could be yeah.
That shit's six rounder. 74. You're so much more bullish on.
We already did this last week with how much you love you live,
Edgehill. That's true.
Well Mike, so you don't think
he's in early 4th runner I think so my my just like macro taken.
I'll let you guys handle you. No Mitchell.
Just as a talent. But to me, it feels a lot, like,
kind of how you're supposed to play the Patriots, running backs
over the years where you want the cheap one.
You don't want to overpay for the one that look good.
I'm not saying what volume? Yeah, where we see my recent
Wars ATP. Oh, we're here.
Oh sorry. Where he'll go, I mean yeah I
think Eli Mitchell if he finished like he's not playing
this week if they if he finishes the season strong they don't
make the playoffs. He's the running back.
I mean Yeah, fifth or sixth round running back.
I feel like we're most Irwin. Probably, most of the guys that
are being brought up more like weird asking Mike Davis when I
think. Yeah, maybe a little earlier
than most of. Yeah.
Yeah, I'll let James Fisher know you guys said, what's up?
And let him know. I said it's up to know a lot of
these guys that are being mentioned, are the ones that are
uncertain AJ. Dylan got thrown in there, too.
Those are the running backs that make up the like, whatever 6 to
12 rounds. Your route is Aaron Jones go.
Aaron Jones has to fall. I think a lot.
Well, I don't know if he falls a lot.
He's still very explosive player.
A very efficient player, especially if he closes.
Well, as a decent playoffs. I think he goes in, like the
third or fourth round. I don't think I was going to
say, he feels like he goes, we're like Chris Carson went
this. Yeah, that's what I would say.
I don't think he's like a fifth rounder.
Yeah that's probably right. I'm trying to think there was a
couple of years ago. We had a back like this who kind
of fell into that That range in a similar point in their career.
Dylan is and their thoughts about done.
I do ins the one I think Dylan significantly behind Jones and
drafts because you're also talking about the guy who gets
them more receptions. Jones has always been very
efficient. The goal line Dylan is Franklin
not been. He started to get some goal on
work and he's not actually getting in.
I don't know. I mean, maybe it's tougher for a
bigger bat. It seems like a ridiculous
statement, but Jones has been really good at converting
touchdowns. You got one green zone, touch
last week, he scored, Dylan. Got the other three did not
score on any of his three. If Jones is good, the rest of
the way into the playoffs, like he's going to be like sort of a
high-value Touchback, the explosive back.
I feel like he's probably third fourth round and then you have
Dylan going in like the seventh or eighth you know, like not
much different than where he went this year.
Frankly. But maybe that's yeah kind of a
kind of Apollo type of ATP. Yeah, I think that's probably
right because he'd go ahead of where Henderson was going this
year before the injury. Right.
Yeah, but dildo. What's interesting is, Dylan was
already going in the seventh, in some leagues, this year.
You know, that's true. But I guess I actually, I could
see him move up and I think that's going to be more Beauty
as a committee at. I'm just kind of going on the
recent stuff. Like, what do you make of the
usage from this last week? It feels like committee ish.
Yeah. Yeah, I called it like, sort of
the well, the first half was all Jones.
They came out in the third quarter, after that, crazy,
second quarter. There's 45 points scored in the
second quarter alone in that game.
Game. I mean, it went over the over,
under in the second quarter alone and they came out.
They have the ball first and they're like, we're gonna
December and Lambo establish age of Dylan.
They did the whole way down the field, Jones scored at the end
of that drive, but the whole most of the second half was
Dylan. Jones had a massive snap Edge.
Nathan janky from PFF was tweeting at live and it was like
7:37 at a half Dylan in a plane more snaps so Dylan Like was the
second half back. They went to like a physical
running thing but like I think that was somewhat situation
based, right? Just want to kind of slow the
game down settle things down. It was a crazy game, the Bears
were winning and they're like, we're going to just out physical
you. They kind of just like change
the pace of the game a little bit.
And I don't think what's interesting is is Jones scored
twice in the second half. He scored there and then he also
scored on a pass where he got some are yards, which I pointed
out Dylan's routes were solid. But Dylan doesn't run vertical
routes. They use Jones as like a weapon
in the past. EDM beat.
It just passes down field to get some of these interesting
elements. I called Dylan's running
background. Has a little bit more
traditional, he's just kind of running into the flat or
blocking and releasing and kept these a good receiver.
But like, we've talked about is like Eddie Lacy Eddie Lacy's,
not, you know, running wheel routes and stuff, but Jones is
Jones will do that stuff. So Jones is going to have the
efficiency side of it. He's gonna have the big play
side of it. It is a little bit of a
committee, but it's like a thunder and lightning committee
where Jones is gonna get its gonna have more receiving
upside. And I Dylan is really dominated
the goal line work lately, but in the last couple games
together, he's got seven of the eight touches.
Down there but he has only scored on one and Jones scored
on his one. And Jones is really good down
there. I honestly think it might just
be 50. You know what it is, dude.
I think he'll go occurring. Hunt went until might be like,
to be free hunt. It might be like that, but had a
little more receiving value. I yam or receiving, but less
touchdown Equity, you kind of getting some receiving some
touchdown, you're getting like enough high-value stuff, it's
not all receiving. But yeah, I think it'll go like
in that kind of other down to sixth round range.
Like almost the first year running back kind of he's kind
of the same play as this year. The idea is that the I did this
year was if Jones Goes Down, Dylan can be a league when it
was all contingency but there might be also, some Standalone
value was what we were pitching all offseason and there has
been. Now we know there's more
bankable, Standalone value I think zactly next year and so it
gives them a round or two is what you're saying basically
screen. Exactly.
Yeah. Frank was asking about Antonio.
Give yeah. Yeah, Gibson.
Yeah, yeah. Gibson's a good one.
I mean God, that feels like kind of like a mile Sanders type of
situation to me, right? We've seen some flashes.
We've seen some disappointment. We were like, not 100% sure that
the team is committed to them, but like it probably committed
to them. They drafted a fairly high on
the downside, though, it could be a David Montgomery.
Type of ATP from Like post rookie year where he felt or to
like the 7th or 8th, which said I said, he's so tough.
I agree with you. It's, he's a tough one to read.
What's makes me for outro Montgomery?
I was just you say, what's my cat 6 contract.
Yeah, I literally typing that he's a free agent after the
year. Okay, that's good at maths whole
thing. Yeah, I think they bring him
back. Honestly me, and they like him.
He's good. Yeah, they do.
Good pass catcher. He turns 29 in August though.
So I think you know, you're going to have, he's not going to
get a big offer. That's why I think they probably
can get him back for like two Mill.
Like, he's not going to get something that blows it that out
of the water. You know?
I think he settles in the, the fifth round is where I get some
see him. Yeah I think I think Ben's like
Mi Sanders comp is really good because that's those a good
company almost was that years past?
Yes. And yet there's so much 110 112.
It was like Compton the year to Mi say there's play.
You know. Yeah from my seniors 2019 and
now mi centers 2020 Gibson. Yummy 21 was almost 120 and
you're saying now that Gibson 28 points.
Yes, I was here 20 21, it's basically the same thing too.
It makes sense. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Gibson stuff too. Because like, as much as I'd
like to think he was a rookie this year, I mean, the Nike him
Hines being a problem for Ethan Taylor is what kind of kept
Jonathan Taylor's ADP and check for a lot of the subject.
They're just like, you know, he's going to be a 2 down guy.
Yeah we don't care if he's efficient he's gonna lose
pass-catching work that narrative shifts really quickly.
Now Antonio Gibson not the prospect of Jonathan Taylor
could he actually pull away from a really good receiving back in
the way JT did from night? He Minds Can he catch can Gibson
Gibson, pull away from from mckissack in the same way that
JT was able to put a caddy from having?
It's possible but like the chance of that happening is now
much lower. Daniel my lovely thought going
into the season and right and he hasn't and that's what the
Sanders caught makes sense. The receiving didn't
materialise, it was an upside play that like he could take
over the backfield and be generational Talent, sort of and
Pete to your question. Taylor's the one who did that?
Gibson didn't do it. So I think honestly it's a
pretty Heart. Like Pat was saying before I cut
them off like it's a really hard path to see now because he
didn't do it this year in fairness to Gibson if in the
mile Sanders calm I do think it's maybe a little bit more
like Josh. Jacob.
As in terms of the actual real-life situation because Josh
Jacobs has just Josh Jacobs was a receiving Prospect, like when
he came in he yards per hour and over to in his college career he
was kind of in that role like alongside Damien Harris.
He was more. The receiving guy Harris was the
Bruiser he comes in. They use them like a Bruiser.
We're all like, what's going on? Why are they doing this?
They continually have receiving backs.
They have him locked into that role and so we know.
He doesn't really have access to that and then He's okay as a
receiver he's not like amazing but he's good with with Sanders.
He was bad as a receiver like in 2020 he was bad like he's his
yards per hour on the cratered you know just like watching him
he wasn't very good as a receiver.
So I think it's like a little bit more similar to Jacobs where
you're hoping he's like good in their semen game but the idea
that he's going to be awesome as a receiver that he has like a
path to being you know kind of an elite receiving back.
I'm much more skeptical of that. Now, after this year, I mean he
hasn't really flashed that in a sophomore year.
And I think if he was going to emerge as that type of back, we
would have, we would have seen more as a receiver this year.
Do we have any? I haven't heard the Devi.
Takes like, do we have any takes on how good this upcoming draft
classes? I don't very good, I don't dive
not very good. Well I mean that was the take
for most of the year. I don't know how it finished up.
I know there's some guys whatever like Drake London is
supposed to be really good. I don't know if he's like the
top. Oh, that dude, from Arkansas.
I don't know his name. The, the Ohio State receivers.
There's, there's several, like, pretty good receivers I think,
but there's not like, supposed to be great, quarterbacks, the
mocs have most of the, the NFL mock drafts have And what's his
face from Michigan going first, right?
The DN Aidan, Hutchinson or something.
Yeah, I don't I don't know. I mean I'm not the guy to ask
it's been way more time watching NFL and college football in the
fall but I will say like pulling back.
I do feel like this this wide receiver class you know,
injuries and stuff with standing has been pretty impressive.
Yeah. I'm the whole yeah.
I feel good about defending the wide receiver class.
Could it got kind of tagged is like this a little tiny group of
like whatever wide receivers. It's would if this was a good
wide receiver class, I'm excited to see it if the incoming one is
good. Got a shot baby that's about
Rashad Bateman because this was an interesting one, where I was
like, oh, it looks like his snaps were increasing.
Then all of a sudden he just has that game.
What? Two weeks ago?
Where Watkins just completely. Yeah, slaps him again.
And then Lamar looks gets hurt and that they've, it looks just
like an All-Pro. Yeah, it looks like a stud.
I don't know. I mean, he had that run where he
did that spin, like, after he caught it and then he gets It's
a field he cuts inside. I'm like because if he cut
outside their, I think like he could have had another 15 yards
on on top, but he's got the he's he looks very natural out there,
you know, looks like just like very fluid.
So I'm excited about Bateman. He's up to one point six, four
yards per hour which is pretty good.
It's actually just a hair behind a bunch of Smith.
By the way, 1.67, he's had a solid season, but, you know, I
think if we get Bateman the little bit of quarterback play,
I'm at like a I would like to see some Josh Johnson now that
they signed him. Off the Jets suddenly is not
been very good. I know, you know, we can do
stuff with his legs but I merely shots.
It bike high school. Buddy went to school with Josh
Johnson at the University of San Diego.
That's how I just can't get excited about a guy who is in
college at the same time as me. Unless his name is Tom Brady.
Well, the trail and Burkes was was a guy that was thrown out.
I think he's supposed to be really good.
Yeah. But he's our Consolidated.
Yeah. He was like popping in the
various metrics. Um, all right, this is a fun
one. Why we're just doing our 2020 to
look ahead cup. Tyree kill Justin Jefferson
Davante Adams to March a Stefon Diggs Debo Samuel any other
clear wide receivers in the first two rounds and do we have
any objections to To Andrews, clear.
First two wide receivers. I don't think Devo gets here if
he keeps being used. I agree.
I don't think Depots in there. Yeah, I think anybody's more
like a, who's 3rd or 4th brother, I mean, people are
freaking out about the receptions for the record, dude,
still ran over 80%, a rat on over 80% of drawbacks this week
and he has been up the last few weeks.
Think part of the reason he's not catching any passes is like,
he is running shorter routes now but they're getting the ball
vertically to kid'll, right? And their get like and then also
he's been making Plays not running game that like they're
just doing that. But if that stops, they're going
to get the ball to music key. Part of their offense, I don't
think he's got it. I think Depot is going to have
it on the 5th game, pretty quick, and then people are like,
oh, it's not. Yeah, you're probably right.
Like the routes are there. But I do think there's enough
concern now that I you got back and that was sort of our concern
coming in that. I don't think he ends up being
to talk to Rick. He's not going to project
awesome either. Yeah, because you're going to
need to spread out the targets, San Francisco.
You're going to project for low overall volume, you're not
going. Project outline it all for his
absurd efficiency than he always has.
But then like you're going to be under projecting Kettle.
So that might like, It's just tough to make San Francisco, the
math work on San Francisco. So they're all probably gonna be
a little bit under projected, most likely and then especially
if they're Acropolis going, Because then you can put the
laughs, they're pass attempt, projections are going to be very
low. Yeah.
Also for sure I made I agree with this.
Take I mean if cup hat could just continues what he's doing
in the playoffs. Yeah I think people will take
him in the top five, right, 100%.
I mean, it's like Antonio Brown type of thing, right?
Yes. Yes.
Oh you take them 103 or whatever?
I think you probably will go there.
Yeah, the best too high. That's too high for me.
I'd rather bet On almost any of those other guys that Andrew
mentioned, maybe is that dumb? Is that a fish?
I think, that's right. I think that's right person.
I don't know that. That's right.
He's got a yards per hour over three.
Make like baby. Digs cert.
Yeah, I think he's exactly is, but that's the point, like he
can't back that up at age. 30. He just did it at age 29, so I
don't think he is. He 29-28 maybe?
Yeah, he's 28. So I and you know, he could do
that 29. I don't know he's doing it 28.
It's like 29 times. It's really kind of like digs.
You know I was betting that that yeah breakout would just stay
and he still been good but like it's tough to be that efficient.
I mean this is still a pretty small sample of what he's done.
Yeah that's fair. I do think with, with cup you
are looking at like He's not gonna if I mean, you know, is
this? We saw this year?
It's crazy. The NFL season is always a
thousand times crazier than you think it's going to be even if
you tell yourself, you, you understand it.
But it does feel like cup has to get hurt, not to not to be
awesome in this offense with Stafford.
Like, you know what I mean? Like, you're at but good.
Good awesome. Not this awesome.
Like what? He's done this.
Not this awesome. Yeah, yeah.
Hey good. Bertos baiting you right now.
Yeah. No I think they will be skills.
Don't worry. I'll be drafting them next year.
I just Wars gonna be on hate every one of my fucking team's
next year. What's his deal?
Like can you get out of there somehow I want.
Rule gone, man. Rule.
Once you fired, you over 80, I'm out on you.
I know that sucks. That's because she they're going
to fit your option. I'm right.
Can't Yeah, it's a pretty good read until 2023.
But so My Hope Is, they will get a quarterback because they, I
mean they were in on DeShaun Watson.
They went and got Donald, they were there was talks about when
Rogers wanted out that he, that would be a landing spot.
They seem to be kicking their tires on, kicking the tires on,
like, basically any quarterback that's available.
I think that part of the reason I didn't take Fields, was the
Roger stuff, right? Then it was, it was right at the
draft and they were like, we don't want to draft the first
round quarterback. Like the Packers just did with
Jordan love. We want to be as open as as
possible to be the team that Aaron Rodgers lands with
basically that. I mean, that's the only thing
that made sense to me for them. And frankly, the Broncos to both
passing on, on fields and Mac Jones like those teams were
like, well, if Rogers is available, we don't want to have
just taken a top-10 quarterback. That's why he wants out of Green
Bay. They took a first rank you beat,
but also, I'm much more open to the idea that they were
mismanaged now. Yeah, that's true, too.
Because I don't, I don't trust them anymore.
Yeah, there was another interesting one in here.
People are mammals on that top to round receiver list.
You guys think? Deante Johnson goes that high.
Oh God. No no, I think with with Johnson
you have to I think have to be a little bit skeptical about how
he translates to another quarterback.
I mean, not that it really matters, but but then who's the
backup and deante Johnson but he's retiring.
No, no, I'm saying it does matter because then, yeah, King
loves got a chance. You have to be concerned about
him without been, right? And Rudolph wasn't looking to
Johnson the way Ben does, you know?
Because no one, no one does, but I don't know.
I mean, I think Johnson's a really good receiver.
He gets open easily, he does what he does.
Like really, really Well, but I would love to have him kind of
in the range where he's a teepee was this year because you're
getting, maybe a quarterback upgrade maybe but you're also
losing that connection. So yeah, I think he's kind of in
the fifth round. I'd be in but you guys I think
we're meant something that probably is.
Here's kind of a take, I think as we move forward, broadly, the
way that, I mean, there's a lot of good receivers, there's more
good receivers now because there's more teams that are
running three receivers out there.
There's more Vertical in just more past happy offenses.
They can catch a lot of passes, like, Deonte emerged from
Pittsburgh, but there were multiple plays plays in that
offense, that we're going in the top ten rounds in a cup, you
know, ends up emerging out of a. But what I'm trying to say is in
a teepee next year, at receiver, in the first sort of 10 Rounds,
I think it'll settle in somewhere.
They'll be guys, that people will make as you know, good
value cases, they'll get hype, they'll move up because it
probably should be going high. Fire.
But that will push other guys down that probably shouldn't be
going as low. I mean, like think about like a
Terry McLaren, like it's had a rough year.
I bet he's like a sixth, seventh round or next year and then
people are going to say is a good value.
Might move up. I my point is I think there's
going to be shuffling with some guys like this like Deonte
whether it's quarterback changes and there's going to be points
in the offseason where you can draft some of these different
receivers like more shuffling than we've seen in the past
obviously there always is. We're just looking at the draft
board. Whether it was but I don't know.
Do you guys think that's a fair thing that it seems you
flattered me. It seems flattered to me from
around 32 round 8, you know. But you are he's mature.
He's gonna move up and down, based on what happens with the
quarterback. Yeah, and even just guys who are
going to stay down, like Marquis Brown did last offseason when he
was higher the year before because you had kind of a Down
year, but the case was the same, right?
They just like and then now this year, he's had a very good year.
There's going to be seven cups, another example, this were like,
For several years. He was just sort of in the same
round and now he's finally hitting that ceiling like Mike
Williams. There's a lot of dude.
Yeah, Mike Williams. There's a lot of dudes.
It will have ceiling in these ranges that.
You know what is T Higgins goes. He gonna say he probably ends
right in the same spot he was last year but like Because Chase
is going to go higher than in probably.
I mean, I think he goes more locked in.
I think he's more like locked in where more was going in that
early fourth round. Third round late.
Third early fourth. Yeah, I think he's right on
that. 3/4 turn. Like, but he, but he doesn't
Shuffle. The, he's just like a feature of
the three. Four turn for the whole, I think
your season. I think both those dudes Chase
and Higgins going to go so high. And then Burrows, going to get
pulled up because of it and probably rightfully.
So, I mean, they're 21 and 22. There's Be hard to see those
guys slip but some of these others Darnell Mooney, I'm
looking at the list right now, like they're going to move
around and some of them have upside some of them.
Maybe, don't I buying money which what are your thoughts on
the knee? He's been pretty good man and he
was like a pretty underrated producer, Tulane and I mean, I
believe in fields. So yeah, I mean, I kind of am
now and I was kind of overlooking in this past
offseason actually quite a bit of a whole article on second
round or second year receivers. And I looked at the draft class
and I completely forgot about me because he was undrafted like, I
went through the settings if it's brown Pig.
Oh you mean an ATP? Oh no, I was looking at draft
draft class so I must have missed him or something but I
think I've completely left them off my left of off my right up
and someone mentioned it to me. I was like, man.
Yeah, I have not given me enough but I went with this profiles, I
guess profiles. Like not bad.
He's had a good year again. To like, why wouldn't we be on
it? And a bad situation.
Yeah, he's been very good for his situation.
I agree with that. I don't know that situation.
I mean, I guess it. That's another one pens with a
situation gets better. I'm still a little bit skeptical
and money. Okay, I'm not I'm not out at
all, I'm a, he's won me over to a large degree, but I'm still
like a little, a little skeptical.
That's like one of the guys were, I feel like I need to do
some sort of objective exercise with to like, you know what I
mean? Because I I'm like, We're going
to see the ATP and then be like too high, you know.
Yeah. And it might not be too high.
I mean this is the thing I would say about him because he's an
Area Arts guy. Like he's gonna get vertical
passes. That his targets is Target rate
this year. Has been impressive, Target
Sprout, run, all that stuff like it.
Even as Robinson has been like somebody that teams don't even
need to pay attention to like Moonies been their number one,
pretty much all year and he's been Yeah, that's good.
Yeah, he's wrong. I'm basically all year.
Yeah, what about DeAndre Hopkins?
Because you look at the like fall off from Allen Robinson.
I like, who's the guy in the next guy?
Who could maybe have that type of like just fall from grace,
pretty similar type of player to enter Hopkins, did not have a
good year this year. It's got it.
I feel like it's gotta run out from Mike Evans.
Eventually Keenan Allen? And you're saying like for like
I'm a stupid one. Yeah, I'm saying who who gets
drafted in like the third round? But you know, Evans won't get
draft in the third round, but I think he qualifies like, who
gets drafted like fairly early in his just like dust.
Yeah. It could be Evans.
I mean, Keenan Allen will probably go high again.
He's been really good but I think there are some wearing
concerns with him. That's it.
That's an interesting one too. Yeah, it and that one's a tough
one, right? Because it's not like, I mean,
Evans makes more sense, right? Because if the thesis is Brady
does eventually fall off a cliff.
Yeah, but that's where it's like Justin Herbert looks like a
fucking Superstar right? Like yeah I'd rather bet against
Evans with Brady that I would even Keenan with Justin Herbert.
I don't want to admit this. Sure.
And and least we need a black this out from the histories of
the, the annals of history. But if you want, someone who's
going to go really high, that I was a shot at this.
It's digs man like this. He had the career year and this
year has been you're right. This year's been a little bit
disappointing from an efficiency standpoint it's not one point
nine. Eight years for our on like
let's not let's not like get all that worried about Stefon Diggs.
He's still tied To Joshua Allen, he's still tight.
He's gonna pass up you off and now they got rid of day ball or
something. I'd be more inclined to agree.
I actually don't think that makes you feel a lot better.
I didn't head of yours forever on.
I didn't realize he was that high in years pro and that's
good to hear because he still had some explosive games.
Like he's still flashed the UPS. Yeah and he runs it runs a ton
of routes. He's run 490 routes this year at
it's probably among the highest in the league.
Yeah he's third in the league in routes run behind Chris.
I mean like I'm obviously biased because I was convinced digs was
about to go on and Antonio Brown stretch of Of leading the league
in receptions in yards for multiple seasons and so like my
expectations were just way too high coming into this year.
So the fact that I mean the stats are giving a great.
I mean I'm over reacting to my too high expectations.
You guys want to finish with a gauntlet draft on Underdog?
Sure what is laughs draft, playoff draft?
Let's do it laughs draft. What?
I mean are the Patriots still cheap as hell like last time we
did it. What are the moves together?
Making. Hi Mom.
I honestly have it. They filled their first
tournament and they just released this one fucking two
hundred thousand dollars up top. Playoff picture starting to come
into focus a little bit. Seems like we're going to get
the Chargers. Titans seem like a lock.
By the way, real quick, Berto throughout Amari Cooper for this
conversation of the dust balls. All and I think he's actually
really interesting one too. Yeah, good call.
Looks like he feels like, I mean, he was going, what, like
late third, early forth like this, right?
Yeah. Neither does Lock It.
Go that high again. I mean, lock, it has 1,000-yard
season already. I mean, he might end up, he
should be another one. I would put on that list.
That's an interesting one. I would be still in unlock it.
He's actually an awesome this year that you see what's been
really good efficiency was, but yeah I'd still be in.
Obviously that assumes Russ's back.
People are right. God talking about I hope I can
trust is gone. Please leave.
Let's go somewhere. Go somewhere, they appreciate
you. Come on man.
They just need a fire Pete. I mean or fire people or fired?
Yes. Yeah.
We just a day. Where, who else do you guys toss
in there? We get Pete.
Carroll. We get Urban Meyer.
Who else is on our Dream? Oh, Maggie.
Is that Iggy? Yeah, to fireless.
Yeah. All right, so you can only pick
one coach in the league who gets fired this.
This offseason is night now, use your pick.
I'm taking Iggy for sure. No question in my mind, although
the problem is is that the case you made last week which is that
they're just going to fuck it higher.
The next match, Yeah. Yeah.
That totally nailed that last also,
can we get one season with just a fucking pass first air raid.
Coach, like, can we just get that we deserve?
Agreed. I think Carol's the, the Answer
for me too. Because with I mean now you
probably number two for me but you have the quarterback
situation. Hey, we're almost what we do.
Oh, you're right. I think he'll or God winter.
Awesome pics. let me know, seems like Pretty sweet.
So yeah, I mean, Tampa Bay has better Super Bowl odds, Tyree
kill higher ceiling. As is do it player, this is very
cool. All right white, my mouse is
fucking tweaking but it's fine. We're at the top of the queue.
Here we go. Oh, and Willis.
What's Willis going to do? And sure we got Sherman here.
Oh no. We know well so let's see what
Willis dizzy stack? Okay, so he goes dig.
So do you guys want to go Kelsey play this through?
Or do you want to maybe go to Kelsey?
And because if they're going to Super Bowl Kelsey comes back
alive. Yeah, true.
And we figure out our quarterback.
Some some, right, it can come from the NSC team.
Yeah. The Godwin, the God, I feel like
so I was starting to look at because I was looking at the
Owners Club stuff, which is a similar kind of concept to these
drafts and the ffp. See, in the AFC, I feel like
it's just such a riddle with how you want to play it.
Like the Pats look like the best bet.
But from just a fantasy perspective they're just not
that inspiring. And then who are you making bets
on? I mean you can make a case is
she's not looking very inspiring for set.
That's what I mean to. Like, I don't want to, I mean,
this team aside I don't want to make like bets on the Chiefs to
make a Deep Run. Especially the weather offenses.
Played like your defense is coming on though.
Yeah. And I don't know, are they like
a really exciting upside? Offense.
I think that it's so concentrated that is you know, I
guess I'm not that excited to draft like Mahomes and then
stack them with like backdoor stack him.
I'd rather go like we did. Just get the two guys and move
on but I am excited about that. I think All right, let's see
here. I like this Cooper cup Tom
Brady. Yeah, or I mean, I don't know.
I don't want to offend anyone who might be watching but that's
not a not the way that I would play it to take.
Tom Brady, when I started with cup, let's see here.
So it do if Mahomes Falls to us, this is fun.
I mean we have we take Mom's we take them homes.
Now I was holding my breath. Yeah, I was kind of I heard even
I was listening to her. Hurt Sig on the Pod with Leone
and he said, he only got this combo one time in the, in the
first tournament. I mean, it's pretty sweet when
you stack Hill. Kelsey It makes it hard for
anyone else to take him home. So what do I mean?
I think it'd be suboptimal for anyone else to take my home's.
It would especially, because the dynamic we were talking about
where it's not like that Hive octane of an office.
All right. So now we need to pick.
We got to pick an NFC bet here. Preferably not quarterback, we
could go. I don't like Connor, but I like,
I mean, I certainly like betting on the Cardinals, but and
Hawkins is hurt now. Yeah, Dallas May Be Dancing.
Yeah, I think we throwing me out GoGo Mari.
Coming or Lambs lambs still there?
No, Lambs gone, Kumari. All right, we'll go Mari.
I do think that is one of the edges right now like in you look
and you see some of these teams that aren't super correlated
like a cup. Brady CH, I do you think that's
where you throw ATP? To focus on the team
correlation. Is really how you get your Edge
in these? Yeah, the winner last year was
all three. Three themes.
I saw it at some point in the last couple weeks it was all The
Box Chiefs and then the brown. So had a few, a few Browns.
I think to help for those first couple weeks because they have
the big games is that right? Did you guys post it last week
month? Let me talk to ya soon.
Okay, I I have it. Yeah, it was a Tampa Bay and
Casey studs mixed in with a brown skill position on and that
was like, you know, the three of the last four picks were the
Browns. It was all hammering Casey.
And then the very last Peg was for net and that was obviously
the key like, get for that, right?
Which for us would be like Darrell Williams.
Seems if we got him in the last round, maybe he ends up, you
know, having a great but he probably doesn't go that late.
I don't know. Are we going to be forced to
take zikr? Do we want to grab Pollard and
just fucking Galloping this? I mean, I could I could do on
board with Zeke here, for sure. And like is this the type of
thing where you could just go Zeke and Pollard if we get
hollered last round? So that case, I don't you go.
Yeah, you could you go Gallop Pollard.
I'd rather be that make you a stronger way of playing Dallas
to get gassy their ATP. So ATP 29.8 Prescott thirty
seven point one Gallop, 49.3 50.1.
So these guys are these guys are going at like the 45 turn.
So here's another thing with Zeke and I, you know, I you
know, I hate that I'm doing now but my math is wrong on that.
But like, from an ATP perspective, this thing's going
to run past this week, right? So yeah, if Pollard Doesn't
really play this week. You know, and it's like where he
plays. It doesn't look the same because
it's torn plantar fasciitis. I mean zx80 piece going to rise,
so yeah, but do you want to play Zeke?
I mean, I think, I don't want I think that the better way to
play dialysis through Pollard. Kosta just because like, we
could get DAC even here. And then we have Mahomes and
Dak, you know, and I did you think I'll up and parlor because
if because we're getting a wild-card quarterback, I do
think the dominant strategy is only one quarterback because
we're playing, this is Chief Super Bowl weight that you sir,
they're going to be wild card. Yeah, there's only one team of
the buyer, right. There's only one time.
They're tied right now with New England.
Tennessee, with the best record. Yeah, I mean we could definitely
get boned. I just feel like the way we
played this the optimal like first place Equity move is to
just let my home's ride. Okay, do you want it?
I think, just based on ATP here, we can visit.
If you guys want to, I just, I feel like you can get a stronger
build of Dallas upside without playing just somebody like, so,
pure all who sure all pick here. It would be an NFC skill
position player. I don't really have a good one.
Alright, I'm just gonna put Zeke in.
I mean, you know, I hate this pic but I just feel like it's
kind of the yeah it fits. What we need. yeah, I think we
can take the risk out of fourteen percent here because I
think yeah, you can get CDs. I mean, he can he can score.
It's not. All right, we're back on the
clock. I do think we're kind of set up
here for a 4-3-3 construction. I think we can pick.
I think we can play this from either conference.
Do you guys just see a player up here that you particularly like
Dylan. About.
Yeah you want to take Dylan will just go.
We'll go heavy. Now, we'll go.
Packers Cowboys Chiefs. Yeah.
Because Packers have something like mvs type, you know, dark
throw stuff at you, but you are the Packers going to get the
bye. Does it matter.
If, as long as we get our Chiefs in the Wild Card round, we're
happy with this construction. Oh, the cheese in the wild-card
is what we're playing, got it. Yeah, we're playing Cowboys,
forget four games, got it. And cowboys won't have a by.
So will we can sit on Dylan? I do love Dylan for playoff
contest, like, I think he could just explode.
Yeah. And you could be rolling into
the Super Bowl. It's pretty easy to see yourself
rolling to the Super Bowl and you're like scrolling through
like which ones have Dylan, you know, well and the thesis with
Dylan, you know, it's the same as all the premiums, your are be
candidates where there's multiple paths to where it's
like he just outplays him or it's game plan specific.
We've seen them want to use him in the cold months, you know, in
those big games or Aaron Jones gets hurt, there's like lots of
outs for Him. Yeah.
Nobody's driving C eh huh. Where did he go?
Not that you'd literally ch1 the podcast they're round.
I think in rabaa. Dre is like the AFC version of
AJ Dylan. I can't believe Doc is still
here. Yeah, what do you think about
that at this point? How many rounds are there?
This seems like, maybe we take deck.
Yeah, so, I mean, just listening to hurt Sig.
Talk about it. He doesn't think it's optimal to
take two quarterbacks but I don't know.
You just take one. We don't have draft.
If, if you have a wild-card quarterback, you're playing that
side. Heavy got it.
So, who do you guys think here though?
I mean, maybe mvs, maybe Pollard power to be pretty interesting.
Take, take both speaking part. Yeah, we could go Zeke and
Pollard and then Gallop grab. Let's see here, go up, went
could always get Schultz, I think envious is interesting and
we can get Lazard to at some point for, for Green Bay.
Yeah. And we can get what Derek
Darrell Williams, but I don't know if we want to go with
fucking for running back. I think we're good with these.
Are the back. All right, she want to take MPS
here. Yes, that's a good one.
So we have it's so hard to pass to hack at that point.
I know. But when you have Cooper here
Zeke and Paul, Oh Lord. Where's the CD lamb team?
The Gallup team already has Stafford and Brady.
He's gonna go. So where's the lamp team where
the lamp team has Kyler? So like they might they might
just give him my take them, they'll take him, they'll
probably take them on the come back.
Right? If he's available to us in the
second to last round. I think we I mean we have to go
We got to get what we need. Now Pete.
Another receiver. Yeah, I think we want to add
Pringle or Hardman or Demarcus Robinson, Pipe.
What about Schultz's either? A Schultz is there.
I would say Schultz. One of the ancillary those are
last two picks Lazard is, I mean, and Lazard.
And just go 13 and all receivers.
Yeah, you could also. I mean, yeah, it's tiny and
doing anything these days Victoria's a CEO.
He's not like our house better and I are like how does he have
an ADP? I don't know towards ACL weeks
ago. Jesus.
I know if he's coming back with that ATP.
I guess he doesn't have one. Just got a projection for some
reason. All right, so that makes it
here. You are not taking him.
I'm okay. Like I can theoretically
understand why that might be the case, but at the same time it
seems hard to reconcile. I mean we definitely boost our
the suit activity of getting out.
I'm out of completely kind taking him here.
This this pics going to this is that it's got to be, he just
took, he's got CD. he's not really correlating that much
either, so, like, Will he take stack them or taking?
Schultz, Schultz, Schultz and then like probably Pringle on
the bring back. So he takes my took mix, okay?
This guy can't take a quarterback.
I Feit he could. I feel like we have to take to
have the cotton webbing please do I think we go.
I think we go Dax Schultz now. Yes, if we take Derek I think
you have to take Schultz I think we act.
When we have five cowboys, we're in a really nice.
I mean we have the Casey stack on the other side, but we're
like a capitalistic deck, man. I mean, what the hell?
What We're playing the Cowboys to play four games now.
I mean, this is great. I kind of actually like how this
shook out, it's pretty great. We only have four Green Bay.
We only have Dylan, an mvs, it's just a straight, Cowboys Chief
Super Bowl. And it's the it's the Chiefs
upside, right? Like, the Chiefs ancillary
players. It's such a concentrated team.
It's hard to. It's hard to really like any of
those bets, right? Pringle or Miko?
Exactly. Yeah, you'd rather take an
ancillary piece on Dallas. It's so much more spread out.
He could turn around and flip this.
All right, that's a great Point, dude.
I like this deal a lot so I like it.
It's exactly how I think, like, just the general kind of
structural approach with these plan of Casey.
Dallas Super Bowl, Green Bay, couple dab, a little mixing and
I love that. We have both seeking Pollard.
Like, you have, I feel like sort of locked in upside, there in
our scenario where Dallas is basically playing for games, but
also like they can both produce in any given game, you know.
Right. Yeah.
If Dallas has some, some Big passing wins.
We can have the DAC games and then we can have the Mahomes
games where, you know, if both the running back score, TD than
than were in good shape on that side of how they can play.
Let's see here, Willis, where did my team go?
That's such a fun team. They don't usually work group on
team. Yeah, Willis God went digs.
So he has the digs Alan Beasley Beasley that latest nice.
Has it Godwin, Antonio Brown. Also, Darrell Henderson Odell
Beckham Willis buying the dip on some of these injured guys here.
Let's see anyone else. Mitchell will sky like I think
well, it's done really well. The one thing I would say is
those one offs at the end or just tough with with yeah Jolin
and Chase because you're like I mean based on what we saw last
year you kind of have to be in on certain teams and just take
shit like fournette didn't feel like a good pick last year but
he ended up being you know, the best pick in the last round,
right. You just keep picking guys
because lat at this time last year wrong Jones was their guy
for that was just a backup. You know.
Yeah yeah, yeah Sam you wonder like there are you know because
we've only had this the one year and they are years from doing
the playoff challenge. We're like I'm already Cooper
went off in the first round so I do wonder if this year.
Maybe there's a you know it's like you need to go team Stax.
Like imagine if there was just like like a team that want it, I
think could have just as easily. Maybe had you know, things play
out differently, could have had like very correlated team with
like one piece who just went. Hammond.
The first two rounds of got eliminated.
That could have been the for net, so I don't mind taking a
stab like that. Sure, if your last round pick,
but like, it could have been pretty could have been
Singletary who didn't go and been apart of the bills thing.
It could have been wrong Jones and you're playing for not to
get hurt in these next few weeks.
And then jump because you already have couple of bucks.
Like I think it was the point for Frozen hex over Mitchell.
Probably in this format. Yeah I was kind of more
defending the chase pick. Yeah Chase pick is hard to pass
up. Off that point, right?
Yeah, but I agree with you. I would rather take it like a
total dork throat. Stabbed on a on a correlated
guy, over Eli. Yeah, II kind of I know Sam said
he didn't like his draft here out of the one hole, but I kind
of like it that Adams Aaron Jones.
He was trying to set up the Green Bay stack but then he kind
of pivoted and got the Eckler Mike Williams, but then he he
scooped up all the Tennessee value late, and like their
playoff odds are great and you get Derrick, Henry, Tannehill,
and AJ Brown and then he also kind of got Garoppolo.
Yeah, wow. So it's a little bit more spread
but this construction is concentrated on That's right.
Like mmmm if those offenses, stay really concentrated and go
far like that, that team could be successful.
I mean, it's SF Tennessee, Super Bowl where, you know, Green Bay
and the Chargers also do good things that could be, all right?
Yeah, yeah. It's only four teams total right
that he that he has exposed. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah. I don't think you want to be
more than four teams. This sort of like my little
beast. What about hard and fast that
make sense. Yeah, yeah.
And I kind of like that. Just, I mean we've seen the
chief Us when the Chiefs are at their best, they are just hyper
concentrated through. Yeah, I'll see you in hell
anyway. So I don't mind that bet and
that's why I was thinking through it.
Like, the we've started talking for the for the listeners.
We've already started chatting about the FPC, playoff contest a
little bit. And so my mind starting to go
there and obviously we can have a full week of content on that,
but just like thinking through those playoff bets, it does
become important about how the team actually wins games.
And so like I do like betting on Kelsey a lot because if the
Chiefs win the Chiefs, make the Super Bowl, Kelsey was good,
right? There's like what?
What scenarios work, the Chiefs make the Super Bowl.
Was Kelsey not good in the playoffs?
Yeah, there's none. How the hell did Moms come back?
Like that. We got killed Kelsey Mahomes and
then got a lot of Dallas Firepower.
I mean, we got a Mari. It's not like we were just
punting on Dallas. We got Zeke, Pollard, Amari
Schultz, DAC, like that's a really good.
Dallas lineup and what their pass?
Rushing everything they could. They could make some noise.
I mean, this might be there. Yeah, saying that my league I
think. Yeah I would say I think I threw
a note to you guys in our little chat this week when I watching
their game against Washington is just like man.
They're past their D line is fucking good.
Yeah, it is really good. Um, all right guys, gonna shut
this down for tonight. We appreciate you guys hanging
out. Good luck.
As you start the first week of your Our playoff contest here in
week 15, it's going to be a wild one as far as the covid news.
I think not all the shoes have dropped their so stay Nimble.
Hopefully, you have loaded your bench up with contingency plays
Gretch. Anything else on your radar, No,
I'm so I'm saying this path. I'm already thinking about the
play of contest so much. I'm so excited and we've
mentioned this a few times, but we're legit going to plan five
days of best ball content between week, 18.
And the Wild Card round playoff Concepts content, not best book
on te. Sorry yes I made it's
essentially best ball. But yes, playoff content is
going to be firing here on chip. JC will get that schedule out
once we solidify that Pat. Anything else going on in your
World. Well just before we jumped on
the show here, I was re-watching the Kenny G documentary.
You gotta check it out. It's so good dude.
Pat, I watched it, I watched it, I meant to I meant to message
you about it and I did really appreciate the the
recommendation for the listeners.
The bag story is we were having a random conversation and that
just pivoted to like a football conversation.
Just what? Like a couple days ago a week
ago, you're like If you guys see the get is you fucking better.
I thought that was like the and then you teach for non sequitur.
Was because I didn't know if that was enough, I think you
asked if what pizza was a non sequitur because he made a joke
and I was like I think I did a non sequitur buddy recommend the
Kenny G deck when you're talking about oh no I made it.
Thanks. But I wanted to talk to you
about the Kenny G doc because it was awesome.
It's So does really well done? Well, we'll be back here next
week and everyone, listen, watch the Kenny G Dock, and then we'll
have Kenny G thought. Yeah, it's crazy.
I have homework now for next week.
It's like whatever is in your head like, when you first if
someone says the name, Kenny G, like, whatever emotions are
things, you feel? That is exactly what's described
in the documentary, it just describes those feelings.
In flesh, has them all out and you're like, yes, yes.
Oh wow, yes, yes. But there's so many things you
don't know about Kenny G, the person like, Kenny G's Holt like
career like how his music has expanded around the world in
some very interesting ways. Yeah, it's incredible.
It's an incredible documentary. Yes.
I have thoughts out at well, then maybe we'll chop it up next
week when scratch watches it. All right guys.
Appreciate you. Subscribe to the channel, will
be back next Wednesday. Good luck.
And we did