Playoff contest week rolls on, hopefully.
You guys have been digging the other shows we had ADP chasing.
We had the Boomer Opto reveal and last night's marathon
ownership projection stream, and tonight we got the stat chasing
fellas with us. We're going to do a little
hodgepodge, some FFPC, continue the discussion from last night,
talk about SAC and Draco's favorite angles in this contest,
and then we'll do a little underdog as well.
With those contests filling fast, we got to get some final
thoughts there as well. I'm Pete.
I almost said I'm Pat. That's that's what happens when
you watch the show last night for three hours.
I am Pete with Pat, Draco and Zach.
Let's get to it. Pat Fryer, Helmo This.
Is why This is why I'm hot. Anita hand job.
Exercise. Jamar Alpha play Chase you can't
handle the heat. It looks like we're.
Finally, at this point, you're right.
All right, guys, welcome back to the channel.
You know, the stat chasing season has come to an end, so
this is always nice to kind of put a bow on it and get your
guys's thoughts on the playoff stuff.
How you guys been? Doing doing good.
We we got cut off from our PFFF bloodstream on on stack chasing,
but good, good to be on here. Yeah, the man don't.
Want us to have the advanced stats?
Do they sack? No, no, we got too powerful.
Yeah, the the PFF account locking me out has been a real a
real annoyance for for showdown. I pretty much every showdown
slate, I would go in and like look at the last few game blogs,
look at usage stuff and and join which.
Money you won again on on Showdown and why you can't pay
for your own. I mean, we, we may have to, we
may have to pay for, for the TF subscription just to have it the
the lovely points over at or the lovely people over at fantasy
points did hook me up with a, a comp sub over there.
So I've been using that for now, but I just, I got so used to the
PFF format, you know, it just it whenever you got a switch to a
new system, you're, you're slowed down.
So the process has been a little less efficient for these last
few slates, still still been. New IDs is always tough, you
know, it's the yeah, we need, we need a universal ID for these
players, I think. We.
We also need a few more super chats before we can afford the
enterprise level subscription FFF for all of our individual
users of Zach. I know you've obviously been
deep in the the underdog streets.
I think we'll save that for after FFPC stuff.
But how where you guys at with the the playoff challenge this
year? Like the prevailing theme has
been just how wide open things are.
It looks fun this year. I'm I'm pretty excited.
It's it's my first year maxing both of them.
So I'm I'm very excited about it.
Yeah, I think what makes it the most fun is how wide open just
the AFC is, specifically where all these teams that you would
never usually consider a Super Bowl run contenders are like
extremely live to do that. I think that makes it a lot more
interesting. I kind of I'm a little surprised
that people are not open to doing like a Stafford build
more. It just feels like the Rams are
the strongest team in the NFC and I don't know, maybe I'm a
little crazy, but it feels like you could easily have a thing
where Devante is getting touchdowns like he is prone to
do and Puka accumulates a good number of points.
But Stafford is, is really the one that you need.
You know, all you really need is like, hey, the Super Bowl is
where where Stafford goes off and that's where, you know, the
the difference is made. So I don't know, I, I think
Stafford's kind of interesting. He's a fun one.
And you know, it feels, it feels a lot like it feels a lot.
Remember the the Doc Prescott and CD Lambier or CD Lamb was
the highest owned receiver. It feels a lot like that where
it's so hard in your mind to envision a playoff run where
Puka goes what, at four games and and isn't the optimal round.
But I'm sure when you actually look right if you run Sims on
it, it's it's way more often than them ownership will come in
that would indicate. Yeah, the tricky part with it is
even if he's not well, I mean, yeah, if he's the optimum, but
even if he's even if Stafford scores puka, then you got to go
and got to find some other player, you know that that
makes, you know that doesn't make another team able to catch
you with with a different quarterback.
So like right? You know, you're needing, you're
needing Patriots to lose in round two, basically, and build
bills out and bills out to Jags feels pretty plausible.
And then Patriots out, then Warrens is live.
Yeah. But I I mean more because who,
who's their most likely opponent in round two then Patriots?
Yeah, Yeah, yeah. So that that does that does end
up being a little sticky. I think you can do it through
ETN. You're gonna make 3.
Right how? How do you replace the puka
points with another receiver? How is your your two V2 of
Stafford plus one other receiver?
Versus it's like it might be dig Trevor may gets three games, you
know, or it might be it it's ETN versus.
I think ETN is the cleanest way to do it because if you get if
you get the Jags, if the Jags are rolling, then you know, just
trying to capture the the highest amount of the touchdown
equity really like if Tooten was if Tooten was still out, I feel
like ETN is a really clear way Tooten being in is a little bit
annoying because he could get the goal line vulture stuff that
he had done earlier in the year. So this.
Is a. This is a fun question.
Some of the. Not as far as like contest
selection and bankroll allocation, but Nick is saying.
Obviously UD playoff contests are a volume game.
Given you had a $235 budget allocated for entries on FFPC,
would you jam seven in the 35 or would you do one in the 200 and
I assume one in the 35? What do you guys think?
I mean it depends on what your objective is.
Like if your objective is that I I want to give myself the best
chance of not losing all my money, then you'd do 7 and 35.
If you want the best chance at life changing money you would do
the one and the 200 because you know 100K after taxes like is
cool but it's not That's not going to change your life or
anything you. Know the other?
The other way to put it is when you if you're.
If you're not used to playing this, playing 7 entries is
actually doing 7 sharply is kind of hard.
That's a good point. It's so easy to make a mistake
on these, whereas it's a lot easier to do one really well
taught outline up. However, what where your point
comes in sack is at When you do 7, you're a lot, a lot less
likely for your sweat to be dead after a week.
If you do one, your sweat's probably dead after a week at,
whereas 7 you might have you might have at one or two that
that you feel good about going into Week 2.
Yeah, I mean it's, it's tough because like the 201 is, is a
lot smaller too. So like your chances of having
like a fun sweat, I think are, you know, they're just higher in
the 200 even if you have less entries and maybe not one versus
7. But I'd probably try to find
someone who had $175 budget, $165 budget and and team up and
do too. Yeah, yeah, my yeah, my
preference. This is a really fun one.
Plenty of people. There's plenty of people who
want to split. You're right, yeah.
Yeah. And it is fun to just bounce
ideas off other people and and build and kind of mash up your
takes with someone else's and then make it fit like Draco was
saying, in a cohesive fashion. So you're actually not making
like, you know, bracket or or fade mistakes.
The other thing I'll say just from a sweat perspective, it is
really funny to juxtapose the FFPC with the underdog because
the underdog sweat is so back loaded, right?
Like you just don't know anything until the Super Bowl.
Like you can't count anything. The FFPC like there's going to
be some had to have it pieces immediately after a while
weekend and you will know like on a single entry if you're live
or dead based on just what happens in wild card weekend.
So that's the other thing about like, do you want a front load
or back load your sweat with this stuff?
All right, let's see here. Draco, how about this?
If you guys had only 1 lineup in the 200, who would your
quarterback be? I feel like the quarterback
stuff has been kind of the most spread out interesting
conversation so far. I'd probably go Trevor Lawrence
Bonex. Sorry, I didn't mean to say 2,
but I did. No, you can get, you can squeeze
2. And how about you, Zach?
I think my answer's pretty obvious.
I'm I'm gonna be Drake Bay. Yeah, I won't even ask Pat his.
So did you guys see the the the Sean Siegel article up on
Rodovis about the playoff tournament thing?
I haven't checked it out yet. Yeah.
So it's so it's like 7 contrarian ideas to take down
this tournament. And the first one is Faye the
Patriots. Honestly, I think it's a good,
it's a good suggestion because people are were inclined to be
out on the Chargers. And then there's a Marion
Hampton injury like he's the most obvious play.
I have him down to 12%. And obviously I'm still kind of
middling what I'll end up being at before we go because we got
to see what the practice report tomorrow is.
But it's possible he's at 0, you know, or one, you know, if
someone wants to like get real gal brained and play for a
divisional round. But yeah, he's probably, you
know, his chances at 0 is a chance he's back up around 20
ish. But I don't think he's going to
be too high on. I think people were probably not
that into the play to begin with and the injury stuff is going to
move people off of it. Or if he was totally healthy,
maybe we could have seen 25 or even a little higher.
So like, OK, well, now what do I do?
Like Quentin Johnston, lad Mcconkey, Keenan Allen, Ronnie
Gadsden, Herbert's obviously not appealing.
So it's it's just going to be a lot of fade.
So if you have conviction, frankly, if you had conviction
in like by Dell, if Hampton was ruled out, that that would be
like somewhat intriguing to me at very low ownership or any of
the plays. But like, people aren't going to
play the Chargers at the rate you would expect given their
chances to win the game. Right, it's only a 3 1/2 point
spread. Yeah, you don't think people get
to to Gadsden more with the pressure on tight end and
Hampton being out. I feel like I know he's a little
bit slappy of a pick and so it, it really depends on, you know,
the population he tailed off. So much at the end, you know and
like. There's such a compelling story
as to why he tailed off as well. Their O line is dog shit and
they needed to use that position block more.
Like that's a compelling story, but he could still catch a
touchdown and BA very strong tight end.
Like that could happen, but it does it does it and the gut feel
of it is weak I think. Yeah, they also, they ended the
season with two tough losses, 2 tough matchups, Houston, Denver.
He had six targets against Houston.
Like if they succeed, you can see him bouncing back for a good
game or being part of that success.
So it it certainly doesn't feel as good as Loveland in how he
finished this season. But I I do like that angle just
with tight end being so weak. You feel like so many, a lot of
the conversation has been around how Loveland is going to be the
chalk. And there's definitely some
projection sources out there that have Loveland with an
absurd projection. But the majority of projections
out there, like for DFS have Loveland basically in line with
all the other type. You know, Loveland, Schultz,
Strange, Hunter Henry, like all those guys project for more or
less the same, except for there is one place that is like
Colston. Loveland is the new private
price. And so there's there's one
source that I think will will steam him up a little bit.
I just don't know how much pull they have over what people are
playing in FFPC. What's the sort?
What's the? ETR is ETR OK ETR is blazing the
trail on Colston Loveland for 38 receptions, 296 yards.
I think they they have some pull out FFPC.
OK, for sure. Yeah, I also quick PSA.
So last night, obviously if you're watching the show, you
saw the the ownership projections on the screen.
That document has been shared in the ship chasing Discord.
Pat dropped it in there earlier this afternoon.
I pinned it. So if you go in there and if you
guys are new, it's the Deposit Kingdom Discord.
If you're YouTube members, you go and you sync your YouTube to
Discord account. There's an FAQ on how to do it.
It's just a couple steps. It'll unlock that ship chasing
channel, then you'll have access do that sheet and any of the
updates Pat makes to it. I guess that's another good
question, Pat, have you made like how many tweaks were you
making last night during the show?
Have there been any other big changes since your first pass?
Yeah, I made, I made a bunch of tweaks during the show and then
I made some notes of some things to change after the show, which
I made this morning before I published it.
And then later after, after sending out the update, sending
out the e-mail with it and then the various Discords, I updated
the chargers because the we got the DNP today on Hampton and
that's going to change some things.
It's going to make the chargers more faded.
I actually brought New England's fade down a little bit like
Borgalis. I brought down a couple
percentage. I just think it's going to be
like harder to fade New England if you don't want to play a
charger, right. So you know, that that shifted
things slightly, but that that also took some fade out of I
think the Texans a little bit who were probably I was
projecting them to be favored probably too much or faded
probably too much. So that's the big change that I
made today. Yeah, the charger stuff is
fascinating, like where it is going to be people are going to
want to soft fade the chargers probably mostly right.
What what did you have the the ownership pad on soft fade
versus full fade on chargers like soft fade combined?
I had the, let's see, I've got, I just have the total fade on
the Chargers handy, which is at 62% and then a lot of that is so
I've 8% their defense, 30% hard fade and 24% dicker.
The dicker I have is the chalk kicker.
Yeah, Dicker has to be the chalk kicker, right?
Yeah, and he's got, you know. It's so hard for the kicker
Chargers. He had a good year.
No, I mean you don't have to think any farther than Dicker
the kicker. It's literally that simple.
Sometimes the game is simple and and Dicker.
The kicker is very clearly the chalk.
Yes, yeah, I will say for again, I had mentioned this the other
night, it it has been very cold here in New England of late.
And then it got much warmer today, like 20° warmer.
I haven't checked updated stuff, but that was one of my things
where I'm like, if it's 25° at night like it has been, I'm
like, that doesn't feel like great on the road kicking
weather for a Los Angeles kicker.
But we're up in the mid 40s today, so maybe dicker.
Some weather alpha. I love it.
You know I'm trying. My best here to contribute since
I wasn't able to make the the show last night.
Yeah, 46 point total there, which is tied for the second
highest. You know, the big total game is
the Jags Bills. I think fading the Jags or the
Bills and the Cam little's going to get some, but particularly
the Bills is like fading the Bills.
That that's the one that I came away from last night's show
being like, that's a pretty good play.
It's a pretty good play. Don't don't.
Kincaid's pretty fun for the Bills as well too just cuz he's
been hurt lately. I don't think a lot of people
get to it, but they that is what they.
A lava lamp. If the Bills had their druthers,
they'd love it if Dalton Kincaid was able to catch a bunch of
passes for them. It just hasn't worked out.
But. Yeah, I see it so clearly.
The bills get shellacked when I'm done.
Do you think it's good or bad? They do get like passes, sorry.
No, you're sorry. You're saying Kincaid just racks
up catches in a loss? Yeah, that's how he's the
optimal bail and also and scores enough points to be in a lineup.
You think it's good or bad that McDermott just spent an entire
press conference saying that his roster is absolute ass?
I mean, he's, he's already trying to protect the, the
writing is on the wall. He, he just.
Saw it's already finger pointing.
Yeah, he saw what happened to Harbaugh.
They've done the scapegoat thing in previous seasons already
where they're just firing people Willy nilly to save themselves.
Like, this is, this is, you know, women and children and
Sean McDermott first into the lifeboats and then, you know,
everyone else figured it out. Do you know what's going to
happen? Like I've I've already like
thought through the revisionist history that's going to happen
from Bill's fans and like Bill's media is the talking point is
going to be Josh Allen was never fully healthy.
That's gonna be the scapegoat to what happens.
And they're they're gonna be like, oh, of course we lost to
the Jags. The the Bills will come out with
a report after they lose to the Jags.
They'll be like Josh Allen has been playing through blah, blah,
blah. He hasn't been 100% since X date
And that is gonna be their scapegoat for what happens.
Even though we're they're going in with utmost confidence to
this week. I'm telling you that's what's.
Going unless like Josh Allen's health is somehow like a product
of Brandon Cook's ability. Like I I don't like he.
He looks healthy as hell. That's awesome.
I, I just, I mean the, the roster does stink like
Mcdermott's right about I don't think the coaching's been good,
but I, I think the, I mean, they had, they were given a gift in,
in Josh Allen and they're, they're squandering the gift.
Man, if only there was something they could do about the roster
stinking in the past offseason. Like if there was this event
every year where you got to like, add new players to your
team. Like what if you could add
offensive players to your team every year?
If you got a chance to do that, think about how good the.
Threat and then also you got to add new players and free agents.
Yeah, I mean, that's that's a little too crazy.
That's kind of wild. But yeah, if that could happen,
the Bills would be so good. Here's the, here's the thing
that I think is interesting about the Bills fade is that
Ben's been kind of framing it as like there's, there's a number
of teams that you don't want to fade but have to fade.
But I also, I think you could frame it the other way to where
there's a number of teams that are intriguing fades.
And then I also really want to do it.
Yeah, you're like I, I have a number of teams I kind of want
to fade given what I think the field will do.
Like I'm not like dying to fade Buffalo from the jump, but if
the if the field's not going to fade them, I'm intrigued.
Same with Denver, same with the Packers, who I think you know,
might get overplayed or the Bears might get like, you
probably don't pick that game enough.
You could fade New England as as we as we talked about like that.
New England and a Chargers play, but I think most people start
with soft or hard fades of the Panthers, Steelers and Chargers.
And that only gets more true with this Hampton stuff.
So then you only have one more slot for a fade.
Is that really going to be Buffalo or is it going to be,
you know, the Packers or the Bears or the Broncos?
Like you're fading a team that can make, could make a run, but
you don't believe in them when you just play Broncos D instead
of Buffalo fade. So I don't know.
I'm kind of I'm intrigued to see how people handle Buffalo
because I think ultimately they do come in pretty low as a fade,
even though it's also kind of a fun play.
One thing I'm kind of interested in is so the last two Packers
and and Bears games have been rock fights and the actual, the
game total there is like 44 1/2. So it's like fine.
So it's kind of like like my gut instinct and and was, oh, hey,
that total's wrong. Like don't they know that the
last two games were rock fights? But I'm pretty sure Vegas
understands. That if you looked at the last
two games. Yeah, and that they played each
other. So I but I could see people
anchoring to what happened in that game versus like actually
what a reasonable projection go forward is.
I I really need that total to, to be right or, or in fact, I I
need them to hit the over there because I have so much Luther
Burden and Packers that I I need whoever loses in that game.
I do need them to put up a good score.
Yeah, the sidekick is the team. There we we, you know, you maybe
have already like maxed everything, Gauntlet's full and
stuff. So you didn't may not have seen
this, but actually the sidekick now there's a button that says
it's just a you have to pick one or the other and it's Bears or
Packers. There is no soft fading that
game on Underdog. It's every size you want, right?
Yeah, it's up to you, but. It is so funny how it's like a
perfect like split of like, choose your Josh Jacobs, DeAndre
Swift, choose your Luther Bird and your Christian Watson,
choose your Loveland or Jaded Reed.
Like you just progressed down that path so so obviously.
And the fact that you can get them all and their quarterback
really does make it pretty nice where it's like, man, I have
this like backdoor equity that this event happens 2% of the
time that, you know, one of these teams makes a Super Bowl
or whatever it is. But man, I'd make a lot of money
if they do. And and you can basically turn
teams that would be real stinkers into ones where it's
like, I'm probably a favorite to advance out of this pod now
because I just slammed a bunch of round one projection.
You know, I got Josh Jacobs the second highest projected running
back on the on the week. And free basically.
Yeah, for free and I'll probably advance with it and then if I
run good and the Packers win, like, you know, I'm just free
rolling from here. So it's it is fun.
I I definitely get why The Sims like it, but boy do I need that
game to score a lot. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, I think, I mean, we haven't like how many games have
we even had with full health Jordan Love and Jaden Reed on
the field together with Christian Watson like that,
that. Tree.
Not many. Yeah.
Right. Yeah, probably 1.
Gotta remember how sick the first game was when Jayden Reid
was just going crazy and then broke his shit.
The Yeah. He he returned the foot.
I couldn't believe it. And then he hurt his shoulder.
Yeah, but he he scored, didn't he like have a return touchdown?
And then like he scored another touchdown.
I was like, but he only had like a 40% snap rate, but he was
going bananas on those snaps. Yeah, he was nuking.
He's God, he's so good. Free Jayden Reid.
So what? What other?
Our ball using better. Are your kind of some of your
favorite stands for in in FFPC that you guys have looked at,
You know, now seeing the ownership projections where you
might want to make a a big stand against the chalk?
I think all the Rams are pretty Puka is just going to be so
chalk. And the difference between Rams
and Seahawks to me is like Seahawks, it's pretty hard for
people to outscore JSN. You know, if you look over the
course of the season, like what JSN projects for versus what
other Seahawks project for, pretty tough, pretty tough to
outscore JSN with his teammates. Not as hard to outscore Puka
with his teammates. Like Puka's the favorite to
score the most points for sure. But like Adams, Kyron, Stafford,
all all can outscore. And so that's one where I really
I'm pretty into like getting weird through the Rams stuff
because I think I'll have a ton of puka.
And so then it's like getting weird through the other Rams
stuff. Feels like a pretty sharp way to
play it. Then where I I'm I'm getting to
cover a lot of different outcomes by doing that.
I'm covering Rams out into I'm covering Rams go deep, but Puka
doesn't. Puka just isn't off.
Like Puka catches 9 for 78 scoreless yards, you know, and
Devante Adams gets 2 touchdowns a game.
I mean, that's basically a lock, right?
Pencil Devante Adams in for two touchdowns a game.
Like, I don't know, it just it seems more likely than what the
field's going to get to. Yeah, I had puka lower last
night. The chat yelled at me that he
was too low. I'm not sure that I was wrong.
I, I did raise him up a little bit, like I might lower them
again. I I I hear a lot about not puka.
Well, so, so think, think through in this lens #1 the
majority of the contest people are going to have, you know, the
entrance are going to have 5 entries, you know, 3310,
somewhere in that range. If you're only going to play
five line UPS, how many do you wanna not have puka on?
I don't think the answer is greater than one.
If you're playing five, you're not like, yeah, let me have two
without puka. You're like I'll do 1 without.
Puka. I think people might do 2.
Without puka, we'll do 1 Atoms, 1 Stafford, 3 puka.
OK. It's really hard, like we've
dealt with this that with the boomer opto too, where it's like
there's the, there's our crew and there's like the Galbraid
thing where like the chalk and the boomer opto have now become
such a focal point of the conversation that everything's
second level thinking too. And it's hard to know what are
you anchoring to? Are you anchoring to the first
level Boomer? Are you anchoring to the second
level of like I'm pivoting off of?
This, but I've heard, I've heard people that I feel like are kind
of more, you know, old school love, you know, because the
thing with Adams is he gets there on touchdowns and
touchdowns are beloved in the boomer community.
Well, I here's I had to take on that because like you even go
and look through the Devante stuff in in in a weird way, like
the touchdowns gave him the way he scored, like the touchdowns
gave him a floor. But like he didn't ever have a
ton of like nuclear games in the way Puka did in that kind of
scoring, which I very much enjoyed in underdog this year
with the with the touchdowns. Like that's offset like a good
bit with some of these PPR scoring.
And like, I think he could just get haunted down by some other
surprising plays, which gets me back to Sack's point of like, I
like the like, if I like Adams, I'd almost want to play that
through Stafford and not through Adams himself.
And to be clear, I I have Puka right now, it's 72% Adams at 15
and Stafford at 7:00. So I do have Puka's pretty,
pretty big chalk, but I think that that might be ultimately a
little bit higher than he actually comes in out.
Like I could see him coming in in the high 60s as opposed to
just over 70. Because I like the goes cards.
Charles point here where of all the kind of like super chalk
players you have kind of like feasible pivots there whereas
much harder I. Would say CMC as well.
Kittle, yeah. Yeah, true, true.
Because you need the tight end as well.
So it's like Kittle makes you feel really good about your
tight end. Yeah.
Like I get Kittle, you guys get kind of one of these random
dudes that don't do that much. So even if CMC outscores Kittle,
I still might be. He still might be optimal if he
can outscore the rest of the right ends enough.
And 49ers not fake, they're ran, they're the underdogs.
So that's like you wanna lean in their variance you.
Lock it in, you lock in a good like A2 touchdown game from
Kittle. Just lock it in your lineup.
Right. Yeah.
Do you have any other favorite gal brain pivots?
And I kind of like it. I kind of like playing Texans,
even though they have that really low total, they they're
also one of the most favorite teams to make a deep run.
And so it's like even if that, like if you look at their game
total, even if they're only projected for 19 points versus
25 on the other guys, well they project for 19 points three
times like that's more than 25. It is harder to do.
Because it's like after Nico what or Schultz what to even do?
But. I do swear to God, Draco, if you
if you taught Woody Marks right now.
Well, you know, Nick Cho about 0% here.
I'm, I'm obviously kidding. No, I think Nico Collins is a as
a, as a good play there. Yeah.
Yeah, and it sounds like you, you mentioned at the top of the
show too, when we were doing the quarterback conversation, you
mentioned Bo Nicks too. So it seems like you like that
kind of like assuming what if the Jags win, then you're gonna
get Texans, Broncos. It seems like you like one of
those those angles of one of those.
Yeah, yeah. Well, like I said, I, I, I like,
I like how wide open it is where you can play, you can play Super
Bowl runs or deep runs from these teams that are not
normally doing that. And it does feel like because we
haven't really seen that before, that's going to be less played
than it should be given the projected odds of a happening
like Bonex, Bonex on the one seed Broncos, Trevor Lawrence
on, on high seed Jaguars. And then why?
Why can't the Texans make a run like it's a pretty garbage?
AFC sign and their defenses is awesome and I think could give
what they would. They go to Denver first, most
likely, unless the Bills win. Unless.
Their their best bet is that they play the Pats in Round 2
because I think they that offensive line for the Pats is
not nearly as bad as it was last year, but the defensive line for
the Texans could could still feast there.
Yeah, right. Right.
Yeah, in the like the Texans and the Eagles are interesting
because you can you can tell yourself a story of like the
highest ceiling version of them where it's like if we get the
Eagles offense that we had, you know, last year paired with like
their current defense of them, it's like, well, you're pretty
quickly like the best team, if not the best team.
Same with the Texans. It's like if we could get rookie
era CJ Stroud and all of a sudden with this defense and now
these weapons coming on with the rookies and you're like, holy
shit. Like this is the complete
package of a playoff team you want.
Yeah, yeah. And it's just like, you never
know how these things shake out. But The thing is, their defense
is so good that they're gonna, they're gonna have a pretty
strong chance in, in, in in any game, almost any game that they
play. Yep.
Like, especially on the AFC side here.
Like, is there anyone? There's nobody here that you'd
bet your house. Yeah, or I'm exaggerating, but
like, there's nobody who'd feel like, supremely confident in
beating. There isn't a favorite.
There basically isn't a favorite.
You know, I get the Broncos are the favorite, so there isn't a
favorite. Right, Yep, right.
So why that's kind of like why do you play the chalk into that?
Why don't you play the second and third fourth guys when
there's when it's so, when it's so tight to get her?
Because Drake made is a chalk and I want to play.
Understandable. Yeah.
Any other any other things you guys are are thinking through
for FFPC builds, info you're waiting on or kind of seeing
where you know sentiment shakes out?
Is this Parker Washington steam like is that, is that going to
be sticky? Is it basically just going to be
Parker Washington and ETN and and none of the other Jags
receivers get? I mean I no stranger get played
because tight end, but I don't. Think he's going to play that
much? Yeah, feels, feels interesting.
I haven't down to 5%. I have right now I have.
That's another tweak I made. Myers at 6, Parker Washington at
six, Strange at 5, Thomas is at 1, ETN is at 41.
ETN in. These, in like the final drafts
of the Gauntlet and stuff, seem to be moving up, not down.
Yep, So so was so was Parker Washington.
If you if you won a Parker Washington, you had to take him
at like the 3-4 turn or I mean, shoot, even the he wasn't coming
back at the 4-5 turn. He wasn't flipping Myers,
though, was he? He was, he was, he was in the,
the ADP hadn't flipped officially on underdog, but it
got it. Yeah, he he did go first in the
majority of drafts that I was in.
All right, I'm just gonna know about 7 and Myers to 5 then.
Parker Washington steam on underdog.
So today I was doing the big bitten with with Neil Farley and
this guy had started with like an eagle stack, like, you know,
the classic and had Hertz and we had ETN, I think opposite JSN or
something. So we were just, you know,
lining up to grab Lawrence as our first QB and this guy at the
turn after starting his Eagle stack, just double taps Trevor
Lawrence P wash like right away. And I'm telling you, he took
Trevor Lawrence so he could select P wash.
That was that was what I saw there where it's like, OK, all
right, the P wash stuff is out of control and you're taking
your second QB there just so you could dial up the stack.
Yeah, the looking around the industry, it's either Jacoby
Myers and Parker Washington projecting for identical or
Parker Washington out projecting Jacoby Myers.
Yeah, I got him up to 8, Myers down to 5, ETN at 40.
Yeah. Wait, Brenton Strange does seem
real. Sorry.
Go ahead. Oh, no, I was just saying, say
those ownerships again, Pat. ETN 40.
Washington 8. Myers and Stranger at 5:00.
OK. Yeah, Strange is pretty fun
there. Yeah, you do run into the snake
eating its own tail thing that where I do think the people who
are inclined to play Bretton Strange are also inclined to pay
attention to your ownership. And so the more you change the
Bretton Strange ownership, the more you're going to actually
change how much he's played so right Strange is.
Probably 1 I do have control over because someone was saying
I control over like, you know, Alan, I was like, I don't, but
Washington might have to. With the small portion of the
tournament that will actually play Dretin strange you control.
It if I put it at 8. Hey, just let me know Pete.
Let me know if you wanna play some strange.
I'll put this at 8:00. Yeah, the players have to be the
right balance of Slappy. It has to be the right level of
Slappy play, but also projecting well enough.
Projecting well enough and projecting for low ownership.
Yeah, it's like this perfect Venn diagram of what you have
maximum control over. But I don't think that, again, I
don't think like, I don't think 2 tight end lineups are
particularly sharp, you know, so I don't see that being like an
edge. And they're also not comfy.
So I don't think they just get, I just don't think they get
played that much. And if there's like one point, I
have a 1.15 tight ends, which would be I think the lowest
we've ever seen, but not by a ton.
It was 1.21 last year, so a little lower than last year.
And it just doesn't leave that much room for a guy like Strange
if if Loveland and Goddard and Henry and Schultz are all going
to get played. And obviously there's a few
other guys. The constant silly urge.
Did not watch that chasing this year.
We spent all of such chasing, just shitting all over Evan
Ingram. Yeah, I can't, I can't imagine
anyone playing Evan Ingram here. I mean, I think if you think
about it being a weak tight end year and then you're going to
the levels of like comfiness, like to me, the tier is like you
have Kittle kind of in a tier of his own.
And again, I'm not, I'm separating it from this MC just
like in a vacuum. And then I think you have
Loveland and Schultz from like, I think you feel good about the
targets you're getting. It's the.
Preferable, I would put Goddard in that tier too.
Yeah. But I still think people in
this, I'm just trying to put myself in the mind and I guess
how I view them too, where I still feel like there's a little
bit more week to week volatility to the Goddard target projection
than there is to to Schultz and and Loveland.
And then I think you'd have like Strange and Henry underneath
that. If I could get myself out of,
you know, Drake May, Slappy, Prison Hunter Henry feels like a
pretty good play too. Yeah, I mean, I think Hunter
Henry's an OK play to me. The the non may play is is
Henderson. I still think.
I mean, I guess he's not even projecting that well now, but I
don't know man. Like this dude's so awesome.
Well. Because isn't it if if Henry
gets there, like compared to Schultz, like Schultz could have
the 8 or 9 catch game. If Henry crushes, he probably
has one of those two touchdown games again, right?
Yeah. And then it's like does may have
4 touchdowns, 2 or Henry and then you still want like.
And did they lose? Yeah, I think, I think you're
just playing it as a loss or you're playing it as they're out
in the second round if you're doing, yeah.
Two games, you're fine, you're fine.
If you're right and it's less about because the tight end
position's pretty weird this year where it's less about like,
oh, you know, Henderson outscored him by 8 points and
that was huge. It's like it's not even just
about what happens on their own team.
It's, it's what's happening relative to the other players at
that position. Like we have enough running
backs where they could all score pretty well.
And even if Henderson is one of the higher scoring running
backs, you know, not the highest, but say he's the third
or fourth highest scoring running back.
If Henry is the second highest scoring tight end and and the
highest scoring one's Kittle but he's gapped by CMC, you could
pretty easily find yourself in a universe where Henry is is
easily the optimal tight end without putting up the highest
score and and even like not having the highest score on his
own team. Yeah.
It is hard to see a high scoring loss for the Patriots that just
could just be like me being, I don't know, stupid, but like,
given what we've seen from the Chargers.
That's not necessarily what you have to bet on though, because.
Because it's a quarterback, May's probably not optimal in
two. He could, yeah, yeah, you're
right. But he's probably 3.
And so the high scoring loss could be the Jags in round two,
and that could be very high score, right?
You could easily lose that game. Right.
Yeah. And then that's that plays into
the Henry thesis where it's like an ETN or or Lawrence are the
nuts where ETN has gone crazy for two games and you just have
so many running back points that it doesn't matter if Romandre or
Henderson had very good games, ET NS covering them, comfy
enough. And then you got CMC and you
have Barkley and you know, maybe even James Cook in a loss in
round one was good enough where you just have enough running
back points where it's not necessary to have Henderson, but
it can be necessary to have Henry.
Yeah, in a weird way, like if you go Lawrence, Hunter Henry,
you know, and then it's like that.
The nice thing about that is they have to beat the Bills and
you're hoping like, you know, let's say you go Dick or on the
other side, you're hoping that the the the Patriots win and
then that guarantees that they'll play each other because
the the winner of of Texan Steelers would whoever that is,
would go to to the Broncos. So then in round two, you just
need the Jags to win. So in round one, you're actually
like rooting for May. You're like May run for a
touchdown, you know, like as long as you don't obviously
rooting for for hunter Henry, but like if you want, you want
any non hunter Henry points to go to May.
Or or to just losers that aren't going to be Demario Douglas.
Yeah, Kyle Williams bomb touchdown.
Like, that stuff's good for you. And it's how the Patriots score
points. The Patriots spread it around
anyway. So you're just like fading the
running backs having nuclear games.
And I, I think that's a pretty sharp way to you're also like.
Going in to round two and you're down, but you have Hunter Henry
and Trevor Lawrence and then you just like you just in that game,
as long as they lose, Hunter Henry can can flip it for you
and become optimal. So you know, you don't it's
like, I don't know. It's one of those things where
you you feel like this lineup could be, could be fun if, if,
if the second game goes my way and then it goes your way and
you're like. Yeah, I mean, you're, you're
talking me into that. I I'm gonna have so much trouble
not playing Drake May in every single line up because I just
love Drake May, but that that feels like a good way to do it.
Henry does feel like a good pivot, yeah.
I won't be quite so sad if the Patriots lose then, you know.
I think it's just like, because of this tight end, it's like any
tight end with a pulse who's demonstrated any kind of ceiling
like has to strongly be in consideration because they could
so easily separate from the rest.
Yeah, and I'm wondering like the Loveland chalk maybe isn't quite
as high as I thought because I do feel like people aren't going
to want to play 2 tight ends as I was saying.
So if, if Loveland isn't projecting well across the rest
of the industry and then I guess what would it come down to?
Like what other bear? Because, I mean, obviously we
like Luther Burden, but Doomsay looking like he'll be back now
that that doesn't help. So how do people play the Bears
if they don't play Loveland? It'd have to be Swift.
Swift. Swift catcher.
Swift for sure gets played. I I yeah, boomers.
Boomers will like Swift. Yeah, I might need to get Swift
up and Loveland down a little. That one's tricky though too,
because the boomers do love manungai as well.
They do love manungai, that's true.
I've heard like. Lots of like cold weather or a
Manungai goal line, all all of that jazz.
Yeah, but I do think Swift is the.
I mean, he's. Just not near as cozy as Jacobs.
Think about this though, Boomers that were in their fantasy
playoffs with DeAndre Swift. They get 22.6 fantasy points in
week 15. They get 9 against Green Bay but
then they get 21.9 against San Francisco.
Like he has 22 touchdown games. We talk Boomers love touchdowns.
Like I don't know man. I think Swift is like that's,
that's the we're overthinking it.
Maybe Loveland is the the false flag chalk tight end and it's
DeAndre Swift. And don't you think too like the
identity of the the Bears, like where Ben Johnson feels most
comfortable is establishing the hell out of it.
He's going to want to not put Caleb in too many tough spots in
his first ever playoff game against a decent defense.
Like I mean we could see an insane amount of touches for
both Swift and and Manangai here.
Well, listen guys, we all want to play Luther Burden.
We all want to play Colston Loveland.
So I think the ethical thing to do is that switch projection up,
drop that Loveland number. I got it up a little.
I got it up a little but. What the slappy?
Ben Johnson definitely has wet dreams thinking about 300
rushing yards against the Packers.
Oh, yeah, that that I thought, you know, anytime you're
invoking wet dreams, it's it's probably going to be an
exaggeration. I don't think that was.
Well, and they're the the Bears secondary has been so bad too.
Like he has to want to slow that game down and and keep the
Packers offense off the field as much as possible.
Yeah, for. Sure.
All right. Let's build.
Let's build an FFPC line up here.
We you guys built one last night.
We had the Boomer Octo. You guys are guests of honor.
I'll let I'll let Draco go 1st and see if he wants to block
Sack with a quarterback selection.
You know, that was literally my exact talk.
I was like. I bought some.
Boat off by picking first. Let me go with Bo Nix.
OK, there you go. You're.
Going to be Trevor. Well, I think, I think playing
that what we do on the rest of the Jaguar stuff is is more
interesting than what we. Even when I don't invite Jacob
on a show, he finds a way to make a pic.
Seriously. I like it.
Let's do. Let's do Dalton Schultz.
OK, there we go. Oh, Nicks, Dalton Schultz
trading blows in the division around.
I can see it. Pat, you go.
Let's do James Cook think we want the Bills to push the the
Broncos here in round two and lose.
We've been talking about how few teams will probably have the the
double tight end. So let's let's do a little
George Kittle on this one and and live a little with Kittle
and Schultz. Look at that.
That is what I was going to say. Then I guess let's do let's do
puka. There we go.
See wow, this is the first line up build on back-to-back shows
where it didn't just turn into a game of peacocking 1 upsmanship
with how clever Leaky get with the fix.
Yeah, I think do we have to? Do we need a?
Tetaroya to go 3 for three of that.
I think we got to eat some chalk here, and if we're gonna play
Kittle, I think we want to play him in a loss.
And so I think we just go ahead and do sequin.
Here OK all. Right.
Wow, they really make you Scroll down for.
Barclays. Yeah.
Saquon buried. How the mighty have fallen.
Yeah, in between Swift and Jalen.
Warren tough scene Pat. Is that his base sorted on
points per game? I think it is average yeah
points per game. Wow, rough stuff.
Give me Trayvon Henderson. Right.
See, that's what I thought when I took Schultz.
I and we had Bo Nicks. I was pretty sure I was setting
you up for Trayvon. Henderson, you were.
It just took me a couple rounds. What do I want to do here?
I mean, we are already pretty off the board.
I'm I'm good with a Jacob's play here.
I will do just that. Yep.
All right, So the teams were fading.
Would be Chargers, Bears, Panthers, right?
Or do we hit right now? Chargers, Bears, Steelers.
Panthers. Panthers and anyone else?
What? What's the 5th?
Thing right now we we don't have a Jag and.
Or a Jag. OK.
I think. I think we just take the
projection though and go ahead and take ETN in a loss.
We just do the both running backs there.
We give ourselves a little flexibility.
We're not, you know, we're not up a Creek if the bills lose.
Yep, All right. Yep.
Our unique levers here, 2 tight end build, Henderson and Nicks,
and then yeah, kicker in defense here.
Who is it back to? Is it?
Christie has the saying if we really want to take the
projection, we should have taken P wash.
Oh man, whose turn is it? I think it's yours, yeah.
I think it's your turn. It's back to me.
OK, let's see here. Pat, you said you have Dicker as
the. Most dicker as the chalk.
Yeah, yeah. But I don't think he's bad here
on non May especially. But go ahead.
Yeah, I do kind of like the narrative.
Like I feel like the games if Hendo is having like the 100
yard 2 rushing game, it feels like a game New England could
just be controlling a ton in the charters don't have too many
scoring options, but I feel like I'll I'll I'll just do Boswell.
On this one. It fits nice with Schultz.
Schultz can get there through a bunch of receptions and not a
lot of overall points in the game.
And then we can decide if we want a full fade Chicago.
Panthers or Panthers? Let me get Bears D I'll do Bears
D. Yeah, they're they're good with
the takeaways. They've got some takeaways in
them, yeah. Excuse me, was it?
Was it your turn? I think it was, man.
I actually, I think I, I think you're right.
At first. I got every funny and then I'm
like, oh shit, it was like coming out of my mouth.
Oh shit. It actually isn't terrible.
Thank you checking, but yes. So here's the squad Bonex at
quarterback Barkley, James, Cook, Henderson and ETN.
The running back plays the two wide receivers, Puka and JSN or
sorry, did I mention 5 running backs?
Jacobs as well. And then we have the two tight
ends, Kittle and Schultz, kicker Boswell defense Chicago.
I like that we got the gal brain out of the way early and then we
all kind of landed the plane in a very, you know, measured
fashion. We were responsible.
We were responsible here, yeah. Good stuff there, I say.
We we talk a little underdog. We could kind of draft a couple
mittens here, talk about the sidekick, kind of final
thoughts, things you guys are doing in your final drafts here.
Let's do it. So sack, you said you're like
over 1000 drafts deep. As far as on underdog, what are
some of your your biggest stands?
You mentioned Packers, Bears obviously having a lot of that.
Do you have any other kind of surprising stands?
Patriots, I assume? Yeah, So in the not in the way,
not including the way too early, my biggest from a from an entry
fee because I got a lot of the the high stakes stuff done at
the end. So it kind of skews my my
exposure. But from an entry fee
standpoint, Drake May is my #1 exposure.
I've got 42% of my entry fees on Drake May 32% of my teams are
Drake May. The one that I'm the most happy
with how I played it is Remandre, where I Remandre was
my most drafted player like a month ago and he steamed way,
way up after he had a couple big games.
So I have a bunch of Remandre in like, you know, the 7th and
eighth round. So that feels really good.
I got a lot of digs when he was cheaper as well.
I've got 32% of my teams have digs on them.
The one that felt terrible to me because I think the player is
bad but the price was too good to pass up was Woody Marks.
I have 36% of my fees on Woody Marks, only 23% exposure.
But in the high stakes stuff, he kept falling in these last
couple weeks. But now you get the Jawar Jordan
injury and it's like he looks like he's the only show in town.
And you get a Texan's win and you just have Woody marks.
And often I have him paired with Nico Collins, you know.
And so I get a Texan's win and I get to show up in round two and
I've got these two roster spots where I'm a project for 10 from
Woody and I'll probably, you know, get 13 projection from
Nico. And I don't really from there
on, it's, it's in God's hands, you know, like that's, that's
awesome to show up in Round 2 with those two guys at the cost
that I was paying for him. The Josh Jacobs stuff, I have a
huge exposure to him, but he caught some late steam in the
high stakes stuff. So my entry fees are only 28%
Jacobs, I got 32% overall exposure to Jacobs.
And then burden is kind of like the the corollary to that where
I got a ton of Luther burden late.
So I got up to 28% fees on burden, but only 20% exposure
where we just weren't really clicking him earlier.
I mean, early in the tournament, the Bears are just not a good
probable. And so that's one where later on
the, the whole drafting in different windows thing really,
really played out to help me balance My Portfolio out.
Otherwise I was living and dying by the Packers, but I got enough
bears late that now now the worst thing that could happen is
that game totally duds in round one because a lot of those
pieces are advance rate pieces for me or those like backdoor.
You know, hey, I. Backdoor Super Bowl stuff like
yeah, you kind of. Got Josh Allen yeah, if you're
going Josh Allen, I, I started to get a good amount of Allen
Cook, but a lot of the time you end up like, it's Alan Cook and
then you're like, I don't really feel like taking any other
bills. And so you end up playing it
through like I'll sprinkle in some of these other pieces from
these stronger NFC teams and then you just end up where it's
like, da, what the heck, I've already got 4 Packers or I've
got four Bears. I might as well tack on the
quarterback. And now in the event that Alan
was just an advance rate piece and I get that low outcome Super
Bowl where it's Packers or Bears, I happen to get in there
and I'm basically free rolling like a really strong cash slash
bank because I just my last roster spot instead of it being,
you know, Ted McMillan or DK Metcalf is like, what the heck,
It's a Jordan love. It's a Caleb Williams, you know,
and that just like is giving me that extra backdoor equity so.
I like those on on Alan Cook teams as well because in some
ways you want like once you have that quarterback, you want Allen
to just completely dud and it to be a Cook alpha game for like 2
rounds even. And just like get all the Allen
teams out of there. And then you know, if you've got
a full bill Super Bowl filled out that you know, you kind of
get low owned Allen. It's like a, you know, another
way to play that. Yeah, the second QB stuff on on
some of the more elite projecting QBs like the May and
the Allen to try and get the ping pong stuff through.
It's not just like I saw a lot of people talking about like, Oh
yeah, it's because, you know, quarterbacks can can dud too.
And, and you know, you need that to get through and, and, but
it's not just that, it's not just helping you advance, it's
that when you advance in those outcomes, you've just turned
your team so much more valuable. Your team, if you never drafted
those second quarterbacks and you just died with the vast
majority of your Drake May 1 quarterback teams or Josh Allen
one quarterback teams, the ones that survive are so valuable
because so few of them were able to get through.
So it's here. It's not even that.
It's like, oh, it's yeah, it's to help me advance.
It's to like when Drake may only scores 16 and and Caleb gets 22,
it's to get me through. It's like no, no, no, it's for
when that Drake may score is bad enough that the population of
the tournament is going to all of a sudden, you know, it's it's
the, you know, Drake may cataclysmic event like no Drake
Mays will. Survive.
It's Drake May Pluribus and you are unaffected.
Incredible. Yeah.
Yeah, like, for real. Like, you know, it's like, Oh
well, one of the dozen of us is probably gonna win this if.
Yeah. Drake May is, you know, gets the
Super Bowl now or Josh Allen, you know, same thing.
So yeah, no, that's a great way of.
Putting what is Zach, what's your JSN exposure on under?
I had a ton early, let me look where I finished.
I have 11% JSN. I got a bunch early.
So the way I ended up feeling and and wanting to play my JSN
because The Sims later really were not huge fans.
The Sims actually don't mind it as much in the high stakes stuff
where the smaller the field the less likely you are to need a
full 5 man roster. And so just pretend it's Seattle
Super Bowl and you show up in your only two pieces are JSN Ken
Walker. You could ship the bigger men
with just JSN Ken Walker in some Seattle Super Bowls.
Right? Like especially a Seattle Denver
Super Bowl. You might just ship it because
it it's such a small field. I mean, last year I think I took
sixth with one live player in the bigger mitten.
I had one player left alive in the Super Bowl.
It wasn't a good one either. And everyone else had zero, you
know, other than the top five. So I got some JSN and high
stakes stuff in the like flagship stuff like the gauntlet
early in the mitten early I had a bunch of JSN.
Some of those are just stone dead because it's like, oh man,
I had a A, you know, Broncos and Seahawks team and it's it's a
five and five. Well, you know, congratulations
to the other guys in my pod, but I have some that are really good
where it's like, Oh my God, no one was drafting Jaguars yet.
I literally have Parker Washington, ETN, Jacoby Myers,
you know, Trevor Lawrence with my last four picks of the draft
and I have a five man Seahawks stack and Nico Collins when it
picked 59 two. And so I'm just like here with
this monster team that projects about as good as you can get for
round one having 5 by players. And so I've got some of these
Seattle ones, so they're not numerous, but the ones that I
have are pretty nutted. So I'm hopeful that if it does
end up being a Seattle Super Bowl, it's one of those where.
You just needed something kind of kind of crazy that was hard
to get later in the contest to get him out of Round 1.
And that's where I'm rewarded for for really spreading out my
entries over the life cycle of the tournament.
Did you guys notice that Sack listed P Washington as the first
Jag when he named 5 Jags? You wash over ETN.
I'm I'm just saying I'm just Draco.
Have you gotten any underdog drafts in?
No, tell you the truth and the, the pretty much the rest of the
team that I work on got laid off over the last couple weeks and
I'm, I'm like, it's me. I'm I'm the chief investment
officer left now. So not a not a lot of drafting
time. You're saying you can't prove
your worth at the company by drafting?
You're like those Allen teams that survived.
I was just, yeah, yeah. Awesome here.
You guys want to do a draft or two?
Let's do it. Let's do it all.
Right, let's see, we're down to the.
Actually, I forgot, I just noticed this with the sidekick.
I did not notice this little toggle here is so.
Helpful. We didn't notice it either
because our dad didn't tell us until like he he just got sick
of clicking it so he added it and then we were like what the
hell. I was like, this is awesome.
It is it is awesome. I.
Wish when I'm yeah, when I'm multi tabling like 4 at a time
and I'm like, all right, I got to go to the lobby and add
another one and I'm like trying to get back that's button.
That's been my lifesaver. Yeah, it's it's pretty.
Yeah, underdog needs like a a recently used or recently
entered feature where I I want the tiles like to the one the
contest I've I've just most recently been in.
All right, we got the 1/4 here. So this is it is different than
the gauntlet the the two of 6/1 of 6.
What have you guys noticed as far as I haven't done a lot of
the two of sixes, but what have you guys noticed are the huge
differences that The Sims serve up relative to the one of sixes?
Yeah, you're going to be more into buy teams here.
So the four I usually dislike in the one of six because you're
you're usually like compelled into JSN or like it's just
slightly too early for me to want to take Josh Allen because
I'm like, I probably don't get cooked back.
And then you're you're in a bad spot because if if you go, you
know, into Rams, if you go Allen Rams, then the Rams are all
gone. And then you're like, well, I'm
never making money in a Super Bowl because I've I'll end up
with dregs of, you know, flex players.
And so here the the two of six does make the four spot a little
more tenable because you can do JSM.
You know, you'd prefer to end up getting like Saquon, I think
here and it makes CMC less appealing in these two of six,
but we do end up getting the CMC hot potato here.
Yep. We could go Allen and play.
You can. You can do Allen with NFC stuff.
You're just you're very likely to have a bad time.
Yeah, and like 00 chance of Cook coming back.
Yeah, it's in the fight. Kyron, probably.
Yeah. But then, so then what happens?
You take Kyron and then in the third round, who do you take?
Sometimes I take a sometimes I'll go into like Nico Collins,
if he if he's there, yeah, you can play that through 2.
Digs usually, But then your problem is you're Alan Kyron and
then your pieces for the Super Bowl have to be like Khalil
Shakur and and you're playing into the Rams.
And so you're like, yeah, you're showing up.
Sometimes you play that through Texans.
OK, OK. I'll go full Texans.
Yeah, yeah. Because I do want Texans Super
Bowl teams and they're obviously like they don't have, they have
a like the game total's horrendous.
This week, no, that's, that's a good way to play it, I think.
Yeah. Do it.
Draco's hoping they'd take Drake
May in the same way he took the next verse.
Yeah. Any anything jumping out to you
guys here? You know Devante Adams.
Yeah. Well, you know, they that's also
NFC so that you know. All right, so we're going to get
Adam, Stafford, Hendo, ETN. What do you guys like?
I, I kind of like to do it as Adams here.
And then I'm just playing for, I'm playing for Nico to come
back, really. This is what basically what Pat
was. This is how I get you.
Could go ETN here too and play. Yeah, ETN is also fine.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, both of those are I like.
I was gonna ask Zach, across your underdog drafts
specifically, what percent of your clicks would you say were
the exact sidekick recommendation versus like, you
know, playing another angle or going down the queue?
The majority were top guys probably like greater than 90%
top guy is which was less than I did in regular season basketball
just because the room reading dynamics are so much more
impactful and playoff basketball.
I really, I mean when I was multi tabling like 5-8 at a
time, it's like the only time I was really deviating from who
the top guy was, was when I knew I could push him.
You know, I'm like I'm the Josh Allen cook team and no one is
going to take Khalil. I'm in a room with people I know
like no one's taking Khalil Shakur here because they all
understand that he will score 8 fantasy points most likely.
And so that's another time when I would IKB it, but probably
like 9 out of 10 times or or more who's who's top guy.
Yeah. So in this spot I have been
taking Kittle to pair with CMC but curious what you guys think
with the running backs at the top.
Well, it's given us 2 outs of an AFC here if we go Harvey, right?
Yeah, and I don't, I don't dislike that at all.
Harvey's Harvey's pretty nice because again, it's a 2 of 6.
And so if you're doing it from a portfolio standpoint, the two of
sixes are almost like, hey, man, here's how you don't get totally
blown out of the water if if the one seeds are the thing you need
in the Super Bowl, because you ain't going to get a lot of them
in the one of six. So question about this sidekick
there. So we had two running backs and
this is our turd. Why was the sidekick saying no?
You must take another running back here.
Because we have two running backs in the first round, but in
the second round of the tournament that's gonna we have,
you know, 1.2 running backs probabilistically.
OK. Because CMC dies a lot and ETN
dies a fair amount as well. And also just the way that we're
gonna get there, the wide receivers that we could draft
can can come later. This wants you to bail out into
Bears already. This is 1 where I'm happy to
just go Bo Knicks and and tell the sidekick, don't worry about
it. We don't have to bail out into
Bears just yet. Yeah.
The other move would be you could go Myers or P wash and and
push into Jags. I just, I've been burned so many
times trying that lately because they're so hot right now like.
Yeah, they are. We're gonna do that.
We basically had to do it instead of Harvey and stake our
claim. They're getting all blown up.
Some are, yeah. Yeah, it.
It got blown up every time for me today, so I'm I'm a little
snake it. Got blown up for me a lot today
too. Yeah.
In, Walt says seems like Sutton
would have been the pick and then bow.
We don't. Really need I had a hard.
Time with Sutton, yeah. Yeah, he doesn't.
He doesn't project that much better than the other Denver
receivers. And if we miss out on him, we're
not he's he doesn't help us in round one.
We're in dire need of round one wide receiver points and then
when we get to the Super Bowl again, it's a one seed Super
Bowl that we're playing for now. And so we're just not.
It's gonna be really hard for someone to show up with like the
purely nutted Broncos stuff with whatever opponent it is.
So I'm I'm less concerned with it there.
So let's see this what what do you guys do you like building
trying to go the the Jacob's route or or grab Lawrence here.
I don't think we need Lawrence because we're totally fine with
Purdy as well. We're also fine with Caleb.
We don't, we're not particularly attached to a quarterback and
Jacob just projects so well, if we're trying to get out of round
one, starving the room from the two highest projected running
backs in round one, sure. We have, we have three of the,
you know, four highest projected running backs if we take Jacobs
here. And so it feels weird.
She's like, I've I've got running back covered.
Why do I need another one? It's like because it's really
good to not be playing against those guys when you're trying to
advance a pie team. Yeah, Yep.
Justin says it's crazy the rise and fall of CMC that have to jam
them. Now they are playing the Eagles
round one and everyone drafts like they're cooked.
I mean, we just had three Niners go in the top 20 picks.
I don't think people are drafting the Niners like they're
cooked. I mean, CMC is a first round
pick. Kittles what second?
Round yeah, I've done a bunch of Niners like stacks like, you
know. Then you got to pay up for them
too. You got to pay up for them.
You used to. Those stacks start at the one O
2. Watson here.
Yeah, 'cause he he can be our Broncos Super Bowl mate.
We're going to need wide receiver help there.
It's funny that in the room where we could have tried to go
into Jags, P Wash is still on the board.
It's like never happened for P wash is like the hottest quality
all day for me. TT park is doing car seat T park
did the this is the the Hertz Lawrence he's he's he's.
No, I've been trying. I was trying to get those today
and I could not get them. Yeah.
I had one that timed out into Lawrence when I didn't even need
them when I tried to add. When I tried to add Jags on
Eagle stuff, it never worked. I could do.
Eagle Nasac. I like that point about not
thinking about the extra running back through the lens of your
own team, but making your opponents weaker in a 2 of 6 is.
I hadn't really thought of it that way.
Yeah, it's just like if you look at the room, there's going to be
some people with Woody Marks RV 1, you know, and it it's very
helpful for, for your ability to advance.
All right, so yeah, now. It's nice.
Yeah, Reed is good, all right. All right, so we got Knicks, We
got our 4 running backs, CMCETN, Harvey, Jacobs, Watson, Reed
setting up a Broncos, Packers Super Bowl here.
Purdy's still on the board, but Charlie's going to take him here
with his Kittle and Jennings. And then on this, like, how many
other Broncos would you ideally like to get to?
We'll we'll definitely need at least one pass catcher, but like
in the 49ers Broncos outcomes, just having like CMC Harvey and
Nicks and then getting one Broncos receiver like ideally
Pat Bryant is probably fine to cash pretty strong.
You know, you might you might not have first place locked up,
but not every team can be a first place team.
That's another thing that The Sims really helped me realize,
like I was throwing good money after bad on a lot of teams or
it's like, dude, sometimes the room just denies you the you're
not entitled to be able to draft a first place team in every
room. Just straight up.
And and so you got to recognize when you're playing for top 10
instead of 1st and shoot, you get CMC Harvey, you know, Pat
Bryant and you don't have that last receiver.
You didn't get Evan Ingram who scored a touchdown in the Super
Bowl. It's like whatever, I tip my hat
to the guy who who got it there and I'll I'll be happy, you
know, getting a nice, you know, you know, 10K20K50K or whatever
I I end up managing to turn this one into and it.
Yeah, and there's like, Pat Bryant's gone now.
So it's like, you know, Dobbs and Franklin.
I was going to talk about the like to me, and I know we're
jacked up at running back, but I start to gravitate to Metcalf
and wide receiver rooms like this.
Yep, yeah, Sidekick agrees with you because it it's been
slamming Metcalf down my throat in in these types of rooms.
And then the question is because you're basically deciding
between the, you got to pick two of the onslaught with Dobbs,
Metcalf is the advanced piece or Franklin is your second Bronco
or Bryant who's gone. But like, how do you choose two
of three of these? No one ever takes Dobbs, so I
just take Metcalf here just in case.
And then the last pick is really like a dealer's choice.
I bet the sidekick will say Romeo Dobbs is higher EV because
he's good in the Broncos Super Bowls and he's also good not in
the Broncos Super Bowls. And Franklin is only good in the
Broncos Super Bowls. And so this is a thing where you
as a drafter can put in your own little input where Romeo Dobbs
also is going to help get you there more often because he's
round one projection and Troy Franklin is not.
But if you're like dead set on no, dude, the Broncos are going
to the Super Bowl, then maybe you draft Troy Franklin instead.
But I do think Romeo Dobbs is the better pick here.
Yeah, because the way too like these builds you can survive
like a Jacob's dud in these builds were Oh, the passing game
is what's cooking. You hit on a love double stack
and CMC and ETN get you through at at running back or whatever.
Yeah, getting sniped on Pat Bryant.
Really, really stuck in my craw there, but that's OK.
What was this Pat Bryant team? OK A a Rams, Denver.
Yeah, with. Yeah, it was a good pick for
him. You know, Pat Bryant's a great
pick right now. I I think he well.
He wasn't really being drafted early as well so I guess it
doesn't matter so much in the Mitten 3 but.
Yeah, I was jamming him in in late stuff here.
Yeah, 'cause also I have so much Troy Franklin.
So that was one where I was IK being for my own portfolio a
little bit where every every two or three times I got recommended
Troy Franklin. I'm like actually you're Pat
Bryant. It's because I have so much
Franklin already. Yeah, in the like, the draft
percentage on Bryant has to be pretty.
I. Mean, I know Bryant's been
making a little bit of a charge of late, but it still has to be
pretty lopsided in Franklin's direction for ownership.
Can we see the draft board? I want to see what running back
ended up looking like for for other people.
Yeah, we're we're in a decent spot.
The other guy who has a strong running back room is the 5 hole
but he's he's also hurting at pass catcher just like we are.
Solo swift round one. Yeah, you see, like, you know,
Hendo Korum marks, like Walker Swift.
That's just Swift round one. With solo Ramandra.
Yeah, Barkley. Yeah.
So we're gonna out for everyone in our room is dead by, you
know, 10 points to us at running back, which is it feels really
weird to start that way. But it's like, dude, if you're
gonna let me do that, and I'm trying to do it for a Buy team
like that is that's why. Yeah, yeah.
And you can just see like if if you have a slate and you know,
we've had this a lot, but where the running backs just outscore
the wide receivers by a good amount, like you can survive
some low wide receiver scores if you just hit on the 220 point
running back scores. People were winning BRS with
like nothing at wide receive, you know, people just all.
Year. The Nuke running backs and it
was just the wide receiver that managed to score enough.
You know, don't totally goose me.
Give me like 8 or 10. That's exactly where my head was
going when I was thinking through this dynamic.
I'm like, I see it. You see the running back with 25
and the wide receiver that has 16 and like that's, that's what
you you need. Zach, if you take down the
gauntlet, will you throw a pizza party with some Wisconsin cheese
and green? If I, I'll tell you what, if I
take down the gauntlet with a Packers team, yeah, we'll, we'll
do a pizza party. We'll get the good Wisconsin
stuff. We'll, we'll get real cheese
heads cow in there. Yeah, we'll have a full
Wisconsin themed pizza party. You guys want to do one more
here? Yeah, sounds good.
I can do. I have to jump in like 10
minutes, but OK, I'll do it like we.
Can we can squeeze one in? Where did my my my nifty?
Button. Oh, you got to click into NFL
first. Oh, thank you.
All right, there she is. All right, let's see what we get
this time, Draco. This is.
A fun draft slot. Another 4.
Draco, Is this getting you, you know, interested in getting the
underdog streets or you're going to say monogamous to your work?
Yeah, yeah, I, you know, I like FFBCI.
I'm probably one of the few people who does this where I I
only play on one, one platform. But I like that I do that
because it means I get to understand that that one thing
better than other people. It's funny you say that because
I did the bash today and what my guest was Guillerme, I think he
was actually in the chat earlier from Brazil.
He did his first underdog draft with me because he can't draft
in Brazil but he can do FFPC. Fun fact, FFPC could travel
across any border is what I learned today.
Right. It's kind of ironic that the
underdog is like the ice of the. Fantasy.
Football. Is that?
You can do this from all over the world.
You know what? Hassan really LED us off the
hook without saying anything controversial.
On. So Tame Hassan has never been
more tame. All right, well, I couldn't let
you couldn't get away when I bring it on and they were going
twice. Trick, I was just cooking
tonight, Oh my God. So we can't do the the Barclay.
The Barclay. Beautiful 1.
Barclay's great from the four. I love Barclay there.
The optionality with Barclay is really, really good.
Yeah. Promo code?
Never mind. This is wigging out on me.
There we go. Yeah, the that was fun.
Also, Pat, the the funniest thing about So Gourmet, you
know, I always say, hey, DM me like on Discord or X and I'll
send you the link. When you get on to the bash,
your name gets drawn and he's like, he's like, I can't DM you
on discord. We're not friends or whatever.
Hang on one SEC here. Do you want to do A.J.
Brown or May? Both are very fun.
May. And Jeremy says, you know, I
can't friend you and I said just at me, like in discord, just the
general and that way I'll find you and I'll DM me.
And I'm he's like, I did it and I'm like looking at my
notifications in the deposit Kingdom and I don't see
anything. He's like that.
He said I added you in the leg up discord.
I was like, what? Why didn't you ask me in the leg
up discord? So then I had to go in there and
you know, there's like notifications for when you guys
went live. And.
Probably. So many.
So he made me go on a hunt, but he was in there because he he
follows for. All caught up on like a year of
notifications. Yeah.
The the one thing I do like about May there is you're pretty
likely to like your third round pick if you get, if you go.
Oh, you're just guaranteed to like your third round pick.
You're guaranteed to like your third round pick.
You're going to get Hertz in the third round.
But the trick if you take brown, I'm saying if you take brown,
but then you have to have this. You wrestle with yourself.
Do you push hurts and you take like a Niko?
And run, yeah. Or a digs.
Yeah, you have to be brave. Or you just commit to the Eagles
onslaught and just keep hitting it.
Which is a solid way to play it for sure.
You can do that though and squeeze in a Digs or a Niko.
Sometimes that's the thing. It's like do.
You it's like I get all 5 + 1. Yeah.
And then digs is nice. Here digs is nice.
Here Yep Yeah, our next picture were basically compelled just
because we did have someone start contesting Patriots and so
we just can't get them to the they won't come back to us and
so you. Gotta lock up from Andre.
Yeah, but it drives itself from here.
These aren't when you're multi tabling.
It is really nice when you get starts like this where it's
like, I know there's like a couple inflection points where I
can add some value beyond the sidekick, where like Pat's
talking about in the third round, like if you, if you did
the Sequan, A.J. Brown, you can like decide can I
push Hertz? What do the guys behind me have?
And then other than that, it's like, all right.
And everything else, it's real straightforward.
And, and this one too, where it's like, yeah, if I get all
the Pats to fall to me, great. If not, I, I take the ones that
are there and I, I hope that I can get Devonta Smith too.
And. If you if you had like if you
had to go do if you had to like go take care of something and
draft one of these teams on your phone, I would just it's got
it's like the Eagles build. Is it by far the easiest to?
Use. Because not only do you just
take all the Eagles, once you've done doing that, you just like
take AFC. You don't even have to real.
It's like I've got four or five eagles, ideally 5.
And then, yeah, those those builds are about as easy as it
gets, but they're also very fun. I, I slowed down on eagles a
little bit because I got so many of them early.
Like Saquon, I've got 26.8% exposure to, that's why you're
slowing down a bunch. You know, at the end I, I went
back to the, well, you know, I had, I did the mitten 3.
And so I had been slowing down and like some of the higher
stakes stuff and the, you know, finishing up my gauntlets
because I had so much and I was like, the Eagles are too fun to
keep passing on them like this. We're just we're going to go
back to the well on Eagles. So let me ask you this.
This is a spot where I always pull up Gotter, like in that we
do have some oh, he goes, so fuck that, I guess.
But I was going to say there's no Patriots people behind us and
those guys will come through. But now I think we obviously
just grabbed Henry. Yeah, yeah, I think, I think
looking at what the room's got behind you is a very good way to
determine if you want to pull up godder there.
Yeah, we ended up getting multiple Eagles people cuz Dab
had Brown and then tacked on Godder and then Steph had Hertz
with Devonta and so then that just three people fighting over
that. And then do we want to go down
the the Bears rabbit hole on this one?
Yeah, I think we're Bears rabbit hole.
The other thing you can do is if you wanted to go Seahawks, but I
don't really think you're I don't think you're that excited
to play into Seahawks without either a more nutted Patriots
side or JSN. And so I, I do agree with going
Bears this way. I think if you had had if if we
got really lucky and we managed to also get Henderson as well in
this, then you can justify going into Seahawks and being like
we've got enough firepower that we might be able to survive a a
JSN, you know, in a Seattle, New England Super Bowl.
But here I I don't love the like, you know, there might be
some JSN Hendo teams that I show up against in the Super Bowl and
I'm very sad. I honestly love the bears
onslaught stuff that that you know, we're in now that it
actually makes sense and you do get you can just get the whole
bit like you talk about this a lot, Zach, when we're drafting
like early on and people like, why aren't you drafting bears?
But they also might be like, why aren't you drafting bucks or why
aren't you drafting lions? It's like, cuz couple of those
teams are going to be dead and when that you know which one
isn't dead, you're going to be able to get all of them starting
in round 5. And here we are.
What? And that was round six we took.
Switch. Yeah.
Round six, the first, first bear off the board.
Round six. It's beautiful.
Yeah, I have a lot of, because I did a lot of my volume this week
and I have a bunch of bears now, which wasn't, you know, I wasn't
really drafting bears at all, but just because of when I
drafted I, I'm actually pretty heavy bears in addition to heavy
Packers. So like you, I need that game to
be fun. Yeah.
This is a pretty interesting are
you guys watching what the one holes doing here, Zach?
Yeah, he's, he's basically doing something that we did.
He pulls up JSN he's got oh man it's just a little scary round
one cuz he's only got the 2 running backs there and yeah I
want to see how he lands it yeah Christian Watson I mean it's
it's got to be ADK Metcalf ass team too but.
Yeah, probably a. 10 is this guy watching the the stream and he
saw you guys talking about how much you love to build.
He's like, you know what? I'll I'll do that too.
Yeah. Believe it or not Draco, that
does happen. This would be too.
I would I would kind of IKB burden and push booty with no
New England teams behind us. Yeah, I think you're pretty safe
there. The other thing that I I
consider when I'm ikb ING here is are there any like sidekick
people or people whose names I recognize behind us that might
be particularly Patriots pilled I don't have.
A burden. Burden pilled.
At this point's another thing, though, right?
You know burden's gonna be at the top of someone else's
sidekick. Probably.
Yeah. More.
More so than than Booty. Yeah, that's, that's fair,
right, Right. We've got a question in the
chat. Does the sidekick have any
appreciation for how often the team combos it's suggesting
might have been drafted? Yes, we're modeling the field
that you play against as well, and that's being simulated.
So that's that's why, you know, some of the stuff like when we
saw, hey, Charbonnet is lower than DeAndre Swift there, even
though we had good running back projection already, we probably
could have afforded to sneak Charbonnet through.
It's like, yeah, but the payoff when you get to those finals
isn't as cool because you do have some of these really late
Patriots teams with all the good guys and JSN.
And so you're just you're kind of fighting an uphill battle
there and there's times. Where?
And doesn't it speak to if, if that's being modeled by The Sims
and you are getting, and I'm guessing that question comes
from the spot of being like, hey, aren't you getting funneled
to the same combos or the same clicks over and over?
That the way the tournament works and the pods and the
advancement where it's like there's so much randomness and
so many teams get blown up because of pod luck, that being
duped is just not as bad as it is in basically any other format
of fantasy we play. Yeah.
Yeah, this is, it's a lot like Showdown where it's a Duke
format. And so the question isn't will I
be duped? The question is how much will
this line up be duped relative to the frequency that it wins
at. That's the question that you're
you're trying to solve in Duke formats.
You know, if you if you play a line up.
That I I got to run I I wanted to make sure we get to 5 Pats
before I signed off but. We'll see you tomorrow.
Yeah. You have another baby.
That you. Need.
Yeah, that's right. I recognize that noise so well,
where it's the I was like, OK baby time.
Yeah. So this drafter did the Tet
obviously had to get a quarterback.
So grabs love to go there and then they're probably going to
pray. That way.
Calf comes back to them. Yeah, he's like Metcalf or
Odunze or just give me any port in the storm at this point for
that guy. Just someone who projects for
something. And Dab gets his second running
back after CMC and we are going to grab Caleb.
Yeah, I, I really like Caleb here because our our flex
positions are pretty strong. Our weakest spot is wide
receiver for sure, but we'll probably add 1 here in the last
round. And Caleb does give us, let's
see, he won't give us a fifth bear, so we won't end up with
that, that backdoor, you know, Super Bowl equity there from
Caleb. But he does help us in those
outcomes where Drake May doesn't score enough to advance.
He makes our May team that much more valuable.
All right, Draco, all things equal, no tight end distinction.
Straight up for all the mittens, Rome or Colston Loveland.
It's gotta be Loveland. I'm as Loveland that pill as
they come. That is a fun one, I just live a
little. That's right.
Yeah. Yeah, that bears pass catching
room is it is so confusing to untangle right now.
Yeah, it it's funny because it we were starting to finally get
clarity or it's like, oh man, Burden's going to be the guy
down the stretch. And then now you get O Doomsday
back healthy and Loveland starts to come on and it's it's just as
muddy as it's ever been. Here's the final squad.
This one was pretty clean. I mean, we did maybe we're going
to get into some Eagles there for a bit, but landed it nicely.
Drake May and Caleb Barclay, Romandre Swift, Diggs, Henry
Burton, Booty Loveland there And like you said, like no super
high end wide receivers. But between the Pats trio and
the Bears trio, just like getting one really good game out
of each of those units and you can you can advance this.
Yeah, that's a fun one. I dig it.
All right, guys. Well, thank you for joining us.
I always like catching up with you guys and very much
appreciate your work on stat chasing over the year and any
other final words for you guys here before we, you know, head
toward lock on Saturday just. Thanks for having us man.
It's it's always, it's so fun to do the shows together.
Dricho and I always talk about like, man, the years of doing
stat chasing together have flown by.
Like it? It feels crazy that we've is it
now? Yeah, when I, when I, when we,
when I first started doing stack chasing, it was honestly, it's a
big chore because you have to put together all the stats and
then you have to talk through detailed stats.
And but this year in particular had a lot of fun and so really
have enjoyed it and appreciate everybody having you listening
and thanks for having us on Yeah of.
Course tomorrow our finale Leone I know is for sure on.
Maybe Dank will do some final thoughts for the FFPC playoff
challenge, Build another team, all of that jazz.
If you're just tuning into this one, we have done a few previous
shows. There was ADP chasing Tuesday
morning, there was the Boomer opto with Hassan and Blair on
Tuesday night. And then last night a marathon
stream with Gretsch, Jacob, Davis and Pat going through
Pat's ownership projections, which like I said, you can get
those in the discord. Either leg up or ship chasing.
I know those are in there for the ship chasing stuff, you got
to become a YouTube member to unlock that and you can do that
within the Deposit Kingdom discord.
Otherwise, happy drafting. Enjoy the rest of this time
before these contests lock and we will see you guys tomorrow
night. Peace.