Good evening, good evening. Night three of playoff week here
on ship chasing. On Tuesday night we revealed the
boomer opto with Hassan and Blair.
Last night we revealed Pat's ownership projections.
And tonight we got a stat chasing crossover episode with
Draco and Sacrilegious. And we're going to cover a lot
of ground tonight where you're going through three different
playoff formats, going to do some NFC.
We haven't talked about that yet on the channel.
They have a really fun hold em contest.
We will of course get in the underdog streets, draft a couple
teams there and get updated FFPC thoughts with the stat chasing
guys in the saddle. With us it's ship chasing
playoff week. Let's go Pat Fryer helmos.
This is why This is why I'm hot. Anita Handjob.
Fix your sight, Jamar. And.
Alpha play Chase. You can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're. Finally at this point here,
right? All right, this feels monumental
because we've done various configurations of shows
commingling, but I don't think the five of us have ever formed
the ultimate ship chasing stat chasing Voltron.
So welcome, Sacrilegious and Draco to the show.
Did we did we not get Voltron together for our our main event
draft? You're right, I just blocked out
how bad that team was. I forgot that that.
Happened. Yeah, sorry to bring that up.
That was before Scott Chasing became the flagship show.
So this is the first time that that the guys have invited us to
the flagship show. Yeah, so much has changed since
then. No, you're you're right.
I completely forgot about our Travis Kelsey, Patrick Mahomes
start. But this is where we get even on
Mahomes and Kelsey guys, right? Playoff contest.
Draco. Draco.
How are you doing tonight? Doing great, Doing great.
Thanks for having us on and excited to get into.
I know we have a lot of a lot of different things to talk about.
For sure. And yeah, and as always, thank
you guys again for all your great work on stat chasing this
year. Just an absolute smash of a show
you guys did great work with that ended up becoming, you
know, a key part of my process each week.
So thank you guys for all of that.
Let's start with the NFC Hold em contest.
I know we're all kind of relatively new to this.
I did one with Davis last year where I let Davis take the reins
and I didn't know enough about the contest to kind of check him
on all of his bullshit. I'm excited to dig in a little
bit more this year. Sacrilegious.
Have you gotten to to touch base on this at all?
Yeah, I looked. I mean, I I like looked at it
last year. I didn't end up playing any last
year because for me, by the time we got to this point in the
season, my brain was pretty melted from doing all the
playoff best ball drafts and then getting all my FFPC contest
teams, you know, tinkered with and submitted.
It's like, you know what? I'm just gonna pass on this one
this year, but familiarize myself with the rules.
Have thought about it a little bit, but you know, have not
spent a substantial amount of time in the lab on this one.
Yeah, Gretch, how about you? I know you're you're new to this
one a little bit too. Have you ever done one of these
before? I have not, no.
I looked through the the rules. It's definitely an intriguing
contest. I like some of the layers of it.
I was talking a little bit with with SAC and Draco over the last
few days, just about some like initial.
Thoughts. I'm excited to to actually like
strategize a little bit more on on this show, but no, I've never
done it. It does look fun, and it looks
sufficiently complicated where the actual strategizing in the
game theory of A can provide a real edge.
Pete, do you have a link to the contest, just in case?
You know. Anyone's unfamiliar with the
rules, not me, and I don't mean me, but just in case, ever.
Yeah, I just dropped it in. The name of the contest is NFFC
post season hold em. And so you know one of the just
main differences is you're actually going in and setting a
line up each week. It's not you know, the set it
and forget it. Like FFPC, you set your line up,
it's locked. You know, underdog, you draft
your team, it's locked. This one you go in.
There's also multipliers the further along the players go,
and then there's kind of some wrinkles of you're wanting to
keep optionality because you can use players that you necessarily
haven't used earlier in the contest.
So there's like all kinds of wrinkles and directions you can
go here. That first or that that element
about the multipliers and and why it's called the hold em, I
think is a really is a key. Just having like again have not
having played it, but having scanned it initially, the first
round you can only play one player from each of the
different 12 teams you can see right there.
Or from 12 of the 14 teams. The second round you can start
to get up to two different players and then and then it
expands as there's fewer and fewer teams.
You can you can grab more and more players from those teams,
but the longer that a player is on your team, they get a
multiplier for their points each week.
So if you've had them on your team each of the four rounds,
you will get four times their Super Bowl score, correct?
Yep. Yeah, yeah.
And so you're trading off basically multiplier for like
optionality of getting to like move into players.
You're like, holy cow, this team look incredible.
Everyone was fading them. Like, I want to get in on them.
Well, the people who got in on the ground floor get the
multiplier bonus, but they're also taking on more risk, right?
Right. And I think the the at the end
of the day you you start from the back to the front like the
the whoever scores the most points in the Super Bowl, like
who's going to win this. It's the person who has 4X on
the guys that are scoring the most points in the Super Bowl,
right. I mean and then you kind of work
back from there, but like I think that's a real key.
When what's the earliest that you can roster a Raven or a
49er? You can roster them round one.
You'll just eat a zero for round one.
But I I'm pretty sure you want it.
Unless you're fading those guys. You want a roster 1.
Raven 140 Niner. And in particular with running
back being so thin, I kind of feel like Christian McCaffrey is
the guy when you do, you know you can only do one from each
team. But McCaffrey is a is a pretty
obvious one, I think. I think he's gonna be in a lot
of teams. There's three starting running
back spots. So your your RB3 opportunity
cost is what like 12 points from Aaron Jones, like, I mean it's
not, it's not a lot, right? And now you get 2X3X and 4X on
Mccaffrey's next three games. You know what I what I really.
Want you can add a 49er in the second round right once you
yeah. That's what I was gonna say you.
Can you can? Get your second piece.
So I I haven't thought a ton about this, but it it came to me
as, like, I think this could be a cool contrarian thing.
You don't have to lock everyone, right?
You know, just like we're FFPC, it locks when the first playoff
game starts, right? But here you have like the
ability to do this kind of late, swap DFS style with it.
And I think you can do that really sharply with the Ravens
and the 49ers. And so the way that I would
think about doing it is if you get very behind instead of going
to X Lamar at you know, getting Lamar with your first multiplier
stacking, I think you go to Gus Edwards and you like if you're
already behind the 8 ball, you're just like give you Gus
Edwards. It doesn't mean you're fading
Lamar. You're just saying that in the
Super Bowl. It happens to be one of those
games where Gus gets 3 rushing touchdowns and Lamar does just
OK and that's what bails you out from getting behind the 8 ball
if you're playing Ravens to the Super Bowl.
Yeah. And the other part of that, with
the roster not locking, this helps with Eagle stuff, right?
Or any of these injury situations where it FFPC you're
going to have to make some tough decisions on Saturday afternoon
most likely. Whereas with this like you'll
have a much cleaner picture of of who's playing.
Zach, why do you like Gus over Zay?
Like, to me, Zay's scoring range includes a higher ceiling in A1
game outcome. I mean, like Cus could have the
three TDs, but he doesn't catch a lot of passes.
He's got kind of that trappy profile Zay in the full PPR site
could have. It's it's like it's the really
strong negative correlation on Lamar.
That's why I like it. And the fact that running back
is thin right Like wide receiver.
I can get whatever I need at wide receiver, but I have 3
running back spots so. But you're going to be going
against a lot of Lamar 4X teams in the Super Bowl, so that
leverage is pretty key. Yeah, that's we got we got Henry
Muto in the chat, who's been playing it in his thesis.
And I remember Davis saying this last year too that you're you're
trying to nail the two QBs from the Super Bowl because most
years they they score the most not always So that's probably
how the the chalk is going to be right have.
Yeah, of course. If if it goes well for you in
the first games, like of course you want to roll the Super Bowl
QBs out. But I'm saying as a contrarian
pivot, when you end up behind the 8 ball after the first wave
of games, that's what you that's the button you press.
But at that point, in terms of the CMC point I was making
relative to Purdy, it is interesting because when you if
you if you pull the CMC cord in week 1, then in week two you
have CMC 2X, party 1X, then you have CMC 3X, Party two, CMC four
Party 3, it's each week actually.
And same thing here with Gus actually it's going to be it's
not just the Super Bowl. You're going to have to have Gus
outscore him each of the next three rounds, or a you know, a
combination of the three because there are multiplier multiplier
gap each round. But you're only pulling that
lever if you're a dog from from something else, right?
And I think you can get there with two, like the with how the
multipliers work. I think if you have two games
out of it where and even if it's like one of them, Gus and Lamar
are similar. You know Lamar maybe beats him
by a couple. But like you're really just
hoping that in the Super Bowl that's the gut.
But again, you're you're only doing that when you're buried in
the first round. I, I, I, I one thing that I'm
not quite sure on. So when obviously the Ravens
they don't play this weekend and so when is the last point that
you can switch around with your Ravens?
I get. I guess it's it's until all your
other players are locked, right? Yeah, it says Players on by
teams lock with the start of the last game of the weekend, which
is Monday night. And so but the other thing is by
that Monday night you only have, what, 4 open roster spots?
So your your maneuverability is is shrinking as the games go on.
So, so maybe if you had a potential pivot that you're
needing to make, you would plan that out with the players in
that Tampa and Philly game as well.
So you'd be like swapping like for like potentially.
Or or or your your pivot could be CMC Lamar to Purdy Gus right
right that that's that's probably the the the simplest
way to do it but having pivots in in the loss available game
obviously helps your. Just so I understand the format
fully, if your let's say the chalk bracket plays out, what is
sort of the optimal approach here?
I mean it sounds like it would be that we're taking not Purdy
in round one although you know the is that just because CMC you
know such a massively high scoring running back that he is
sort of the exception of the rule but like you know there
would would or is there a case to to start Lamar and Purdy or
is it basically you want to start Lamar Allen CMC.
It sounds like Lamar and Purdy is what what Davis was saying
and and what sounds like Henry's saying, I don't know.
I was making the case. For multiplier is so big that
it's going to offset the early round zeros I.
I think the the question is. Which it out it out projects
like the next running back by at least 10 points, whereas I don't
think that's the same case for for for Purdy.
Yeah, it's not. But in the Super Bowl it's all
flexes anyway. And I mean I think ultimately
the question of whether you go Purdy or CMC in round one is a
question of whether CMC or Purdy scores more raw points for the
for the course of the playoffs. And NFNFC is favorable to
quarterback scoring. It's six points per passing.
TD, it's one point per 20 passing yards.
It's very favorable to quarterback scoring.
I think, I mean, I think Purdy has a a pretty good argument to
just flat out score McCaffrey over there.
With the weather stuff in Buffalo, maybe that's the chalk
build, right? Or the with with Purdy 'cause
you're not as worried about missing out on this game from
Allen in Week 1. But the the McCaffrey, the thing
you just said I was thinking about as well, was McCaffrey
Lamar Allen in Week 1. But in and then in round two,
you only still only have two quarterbacks.
So then you have to make a decision between Allen Lamar and
Purdy in the second round. Right away you you're not going
to be able to play all. So you're booting Allen for
Purdy. And yeah, so it sounds like you
want to start Purdy. Yeah, Muto says.
Similar to FFPC, you want your kicker and defense to lose in
first round. Any player you pick, you will
always keep them unless they they get hurt here.
Oh, so you can't even move off of Allen and Lamar?
So you kind of, you're kind of boxed out from 2 quarterbacks on
the Super Bowl. So Allen and Lamar kind of is
bad. It sounds like it if you're if
you're trying to play, to have your two quarterbacks in the
Super Bowl. But it could be fine if you are
playing CMC and then I guess you're playing that Allen had a
really big week one and then doesn't do very much in Week 2,
which kind of feels like the opposite of what we'd expect
with. The weather we.
Can't go to Purdy then you? You better hope Purdy just duds
'cause you you're locked out of Purdy in round two as well.
Yeah, well, no, you would dump. He's saying you would dump
Allen. You'd dump.
Allen Well, I thought Henry's saying you can't.
Well, you can. You don't.
Right. It's so you can.
You don't got it. OK, on NFFC, McCaffrey averaged
24.8 points this year. Purdy averaged 25.2.
They were. They were very close.
Purdy was QB eight. There were several that were
higher scoring. They were at the .6 points per
game apart like it. It maybe isn't crazy that
McCaffrey can outscore him over three games even though the
scoring. So you could I So part of the
the outscoring is the offset of the the other quarterback or
running back that you take in round one that you're then
dumping. So like if you get if Allen has
a monster game in round one visa V whatever other running back
you take for the McCaffrey 0, the McCaffrey 0 has a lower
opportunity cost in the Purdue zero in round one.
That's what I'm trying to say. There is a small offset with
getting those Allen points and then McCaffrey outscores Purdy
by that range or or even if Purdy outscores McCaffrey, then
the the multiplier, it's it's, it's complicated, yeah.
The way I was thinking about it though, it's it's it's always as
long as you take one player or one week and then the next the
other player the next week, it's only it's there's only ever a
11X difference. But you get more.
It's harder to go to Purdy in round two because you're giving
up that Allen. But you could get.
There. But you could instead play your
second quarterback, round one, as just a quarterback that you
think scores a lot of points in a loss.
Like if you think the Rams upset Detroit, you know, or or.
Yeah, Jordan Love makes a ton of sense too.
But if you think the Rams upset Detroit, maybe play Jared Goff
at home. Yeah 'cause that protects you
from getting buried by any other.
Like you advance round two and then you'd have to get off your
2X quarterback. You know, to another skill
position player there, you're gonna all of a sudden start
losing ground to people that get to keep their 2X skill position
there. So you do really want that to be
a team that loses Baker sounds Baker.
Sounds sick to me. So another another way to play
this is if you wanted to go CMC, you pick the Ravens to lose and
you don't play Lamar. You play CMC Josh Allen.
Then you add Purdy and you're not playing the Ravens to the
Super Bowl. You build your structure
intentionally to not go Ravens Niners.
That's that's conducive to playing CMC.
So is that a Flacco build? Yeah, but it would be, it would,
it would be no. Flacco specifically because
that's who would go beat the Ravens.
Yeah. Maybe it's a?
Flacco build. That that is a Flacco build.
I change the no matter what you do.
Allen can go. Backs from opposite.
Confidence. Yeah, that's true.
Like you want, because then if that that comes into the
optionality of if they do advance, well, then at least at
least you have the option to keep them.
Like you can still play it that way, yes.
Just for the audio listeners here, I do have the starting
lineup requirements up. It's a pretty big starting
lineup. So it's the two quarterbacks
like we've been discussing, 3 running backs.
Then there's four wide receiver slash tight end spots and then
one flex spot that includes running back, team kicker, team
defense. And that was the refresher
Gretch was mentioning. NFC scoring different.
Famously not tight in premium but you do get that six points
her passing TD, which yeah, I. I missed this wide receiver
slash tight end element as well. I was trying to think through
how tight end would fit, but that's interesting.
I mean that's obviously tight end, very weak this year.
It kind of just like takes out tight end.
We don't have to worry about it. I know, 'cause I was actually
thinking that Kittle would be kind of interesting in this
whole San Francisco conversation, but that's not
relevant. I it's interesting.
So OK, this comment from Henry saying you really want your
kicker and defense to lose because then you're depriving
yourself a position player, getting the the the multiplier,
the 2X multiplier. And that's because basically a a
skilled position player opposite that kicker and D was
eliminated. Is that is that basically why?
Yeah, yeah. Or you you faded A-Team.
Or you faded A-Team A-Team that advanced.
Yeah, well, if you have a skilled position player opposite
that, you're a kicker, 'cause you're you're soft fading the
kicker and you're playing the skilled position opposite them,
your kicker getting eliminated means your skilled player.
Right. So you have Omari, Cooper and
Kaimi. You really want Kaimi to get
eliminated? Yeah.
That's very similar to the FFPC.
Yeah, how we how we play the first round the the Flacco thing
I think doesn't work for the anti Ravens.
One 'cause you have to be able to add Purdy in round two.
If you did CMC Allen, you need Purdy Allen as your two QB's in
round two. Which means it doesn't matter if
it's Flacco or whatever. I mean, I'm sorry, I'm still
playing out the the McCaffrey Allen angle, but it like the the
second quarterback you play in round one is, is more or less
irrelevant. I mean, maybe you do need him to
lose. I wasn't necessarily following
that point. For well, you don't.
It's it's not completely relevant, right?
Because like let's say you could have had digs and get a two or
three X multiplier on him when he goes to the conference
championship game. So there is some opportunity
cost to starting over on the Bills, assuming that they do
make a run. So yeah, you're just what you're
telling me is you start Flacco, ground one, and you just play
Flacco all the way through. Well, that's the thing.
You. Can't do that.
You can't play Flacco in the second round unless you play
Flacco out of the soup. And how good you think the
rounds are going to do. I've been dealing with this ship
for a month. Then you'll start to fall in
love. You're like, holy cow, Flacco
looked really good. And then you'll start looking at
that multiplier. And then you'll start telling
yourself a story. Next thing you know, your eye on
Flacco. I mean, I I asked Leonie, and I
know Leonie's going to do some NFC content too.
One thing he said was, I think bracket scenario planning is
important. Some of the best teams provide a
lot of apps, but some of the best teams provide a lot of
optionality where you could still maximize points even if
the bracket breaks a couple of different ways.
Primary goal is having one to 4X on the top 4 scoring players
from each side of the Super Bowl.
In the end, a lot easier said than done.
So if there's clever ways that you can actually do like 2 Super
Bowl teams from one side, I mean maybe playing the McCaffrey
thing you're also playing. I mean, I don't know.
It's so tough cause in round two you have to add Purdy.
I was gonna say you're also playing like Dak or something,
but I feel like you're all you. You you really.
What if you add? What if you add debo in the
second round instead? Wow.
Then you would need debo and CMC to outscore Purdy.
Yeah, any any other Niner build that makes it, you're gonna be
buying a. But that's that's the way you
have to do it if you're gonna not add Purdy 'cause you need it
to come as rushing to. The right.
Yeah, Yep, Right. Yeah.
The passing. Touchdowns are what are what
will bite you right format. So.
Yeah, it's fun too, because I think you can start to get a
little bit more granular with like your weekly takes, right?
Like you could be like, I really like a Chan against the Chiefs,
you know, run defense. But then maybe I want to play,
you know, pass catcher in their round two match.
You know, like you can start to really try to leverage specific
spots you like for for individual players.
I'm trying to think of like what are the specific ways that you
can keep multiple options open like I guess I mean you could
play like Tyreek Hill and. I think it's, I think it's more
similar in that regard to to how we're drafting for playoff best
while where you're trying to predict the conference
championship, right, Like you're doubling up in the second round,
you're doubling up on the conference championship teams
and you're concentrating your bets there instead.
So I think that's probably the way you do it.
There, there's there's. Eight teams left at that point,
and you can do 2 of of any team. So there will be teams where you
have two of and then other teams where you only have one of.
So that'll be something that you need to be smart about when
you're building out your different brackets.
Pete, I know we're we're talking about like doing doing one of
these and and like entering it at the end, but do you mind like
just clicking some names so we can start to work through a
build? Yeah, like before we even build
a real build so we can kind of think through some of the things
that it forces you to think through once you have a few
names in there because it's. Yeah.
It is we we do have Carson wins just staring at onto the queue.
So what will you, will you start with the CMC Allen One 'cause I
like let's just say we're doing Niners bills to the Super Bowl,
'cause I think this is sort of clean.
Yeah. So in terms of trying to keep
multiple options open, would one move be to then play both sides
of the Lion's Ramsgate? Like play Almond Raw and I don't
know, Kyron or Amanat and Nikua or whatever, and then you're
like whoever wins, that could eventually, I'll keep them in my
lineup. They could eventually face the
Niners in the conference championship.
Is that sort of like what you guys were saying, like to keep
both options open? Yeah, I'm.
As I think through it, 'cause I think you want to play for the
conference championship, so it's like if you do Rams and Lions,
then the Rams are gonna see the Niners the next round right
away, right? Unless you get a Green Bay upset
as well. That's right.
And so I think a different way to do it is you play the 4th,
you play both sides of the 4-5 like at a way higher frequency
than you would in other kinds of contests because one all it
takes is 1 upset and those teams get to dodge the the one seed.
So I think we. Play.
That's tricky too, 'cause if Dallas and Detroit both win and
they're both favored, then you're right.
You're sending your four five straight to to San Francisco.
But it's higher. It's that's the highest
probability way you can do it to to maintain optionality if
you're trying to do it that way, right?
Yeah, we got the least crazy upset.
Yeah, yeah. I I think one other thing that
maybe not as important but I think you also want to be
careful about playing using two of your wide receiver spots like
against each other whereas the because the wide receiver that
that's higher scoring than tight end and running back and.
Tight end, right? Yeah, they're just.
Logged in. Oh oh OK OK my so well then.
Then running back and receiver like because the the the
receivers are gonna project higher than the the running
back. And so if you're if you're sort
of doing a bracket where you're guaranteed to lose one of your
wide receivers. Yeah.
Whereas if if you're playing two sides of it, you you wanna have
at least have the out where it's a running back you lose not not
the wide receiver. Yep.
Makes sense to me. And then round two, you still
have 3 running backs, but then in and then what?
In the Super Bowl, it's all flexes, but for three rounds
it's this running back, wide receiver, tight end and then a
flex structure. Henry offers a couple keys here
in the chat and his key three, he says, nailing all four
winners around 2:00 to get times 3 on all four guys.
It does seem like getting the bracket correct, intentionally
making your picks to pick the games and then picking the games
right is a really big advantage because you're setting up all of
the multipliers right. Like the multipliers are so key
and to get the multipliers right you have to get the right guys
in line like you. You might be able to do both
sides of a specific game, but ultimately you want to like pick
a very specific bracket I think, and try to line up all your
multipliers all the way through. More or less.
You can kind of set your line up for the whole contest for that
bracket, you know, whatever your specific bracket is from the
beginning. Yeah, if we went through all the
games right now and said we're picking this team to win, we're
picking this upset, we can set our whole line up right now,
basically. So it feels like in general you
should lean towards, unless there's a 27 match up that you
really like for an upset, you should lean towards picking one
side of the three, six, you know, just pick one side of the
three six and fade the other side and then you you play both
sides of both 4 fives is the way that I'm leaning to do it.
'Cause the only way you really get burned by that right, is if
the 6th side, like goes to the conference championship for the
Super Bowl, and then people who have that are getting that extra
multiplier. And you can even pick the six.
I'm not saying like, oh, you got to pick the three, but it's like
just pick pick that one, right? And then you maintain the Max
optionality by picking both sides of the 4-5.
And then whichever way the bracket shakes out, whether
there's upset or no upset, you know you you end up with with
ways to pivot. At least you can bail yourself
out. So let's try to build out the
rest of this letter. Let's first like, say A bracket.
Like what? What?
What four teams do we want to play in the conference
championship for this one? Well, let's play both sides of
the four fives, I I think that was an interesting point and
then we can pick the 2736 games. We ought to go back.
Because like between the How do you want to pick the three
sixes? Because that sound like the
biggest decision point. So who do you like between the
Chiefs, Dolphins and the the Lions?
Well, Tyrika's going to be overly popular, right?
Or or or at least extremely popular and.
But a lot of people are gonna play both sides of that game.
It would be interesting to play like like Pacheco and fade the
Dolphins. Yeah, or or Dolphins running
back and fade the Chiefs. I think those are the two.
Yes, plays Gretch. Yep, I think you guys want to.
Go out of it. Yeah, that's for the Pacheco
side, the. Pacheco side's definitely less
gross. And yeah, that's that's the
thing. Like, if we don't play the
Dolphin side, like, we don't have to get overly cute with it,
right? We can just play the one that
feels good. Yep.
What about the Rams Lions? Where do you guys want to go
there? This is, this is full PPR.
Yeah, yeah. OK, so it makes Alman Raw, like
kind of a scary fade. But yeah, I don't think you have
to worry about ownership quite as much.
If you're playing this the right way, where you can pivot, 'cause
we can see ownership too, as cards get flipped over, right.
So we can do. So then I think you start with
Alman Raw, 'cause that's the Sunday night game, right?
And then? Yeah, maybe the Ram's.
Maybe the Ram's kicker and then we can flip.
We could. That sounds good.
You know. Yeah that's a don't don't game
Rams kicker. That makes sense.
And then, yeah, we've got, we can pivot there.
You can pivot Sunday night and flip the Rams to your winner and
play like puka and and the Lions kicker.
Get a little contrarian and the two seven will probably go or we
already have bills in the two. So do you just not play a Raven
or do you start with like zay or something?
I think you gotta start with, well, it depends on how we're
playing that step of the bracket are are we saying that the
Ravens get upset then by 'cause we we've got Chiefs winning, so
it's gonna be the four or five plays the Ravens, so.
Yeah, I think the Ravens beat, beat them.
So can we can we do them more? Well, the way I was saying this
one, I don't think we intentionally.
Was to be a. Buffalo, San Francisco Super
Bowl with, oh, it was McCaffrey. Yeah, 'cause in the second round
you have to add party if you want to play McCaffrey.
So I think it kind of makes sense to be doing Allen and
keeping that and then doing like like a Baker like we were
saying. Right.
So we're saying Ravens play two games in this scenario then, and
they're losing one of them. So that feels like we just do
zay flowers and don't overthink it, right?
That's kind of how I was thinking about it.
Yeah, 'cause we're not. Likely gives you nothing, no
advantage at all. Yeah, so we want Zay here.
I think so. And then like I assume on this
that like you're just playing CD.
Yeah, yeah. And if if we're doing a a a
Buffalo Super Bowl with a San Francisco Super Bowl where CMC
is optimal over Purdy, are are are are we like contrarian like
enough almost that we should be looking at more chalky stuff now
or or is that is that not true at all well?
We just put in CD. Yeah, I think, yeah.
Yeah. Yeah.
No, I know, but. Yeah, we can.
We can bring it home pretty chalky.
Just I think. Really.
Chalky. That's what I'm suggesting.
Yeah, let me go with. That I was gonna say.
What do you think about going hurts Evans you well you could
go Baker whatever. But hurts Evans is a little less
the. Problem with Hurts Evans is
that. You're playing the box to win.
Yeah, but if the if hurts is hurts, they're not gonna lose.
Yeah, that's like, that's a great point.
If they play well, if Hurts scores, they're gonna win.
They're gonna win. So I think you just pick your
your quarterback is either Flacco or Stroud then, right?
Doesn't that sort of give you a lot of functionality too then?
Yeah, it does. Yeah.
I think Trico, yeah, but you're probably dumping this player
regardless, because you're probably adding.
Purdy, But you're hoping Flacco lights up the the Texans
defense, which is. Pretty plausible.
The optionality it gives you is if Flacco does win and Josh
Allen gets upset, you can go, Oh my God.
Oh my God. OK, yeah, that now.
You're well, your optionality. You've been hanging out with a
guy named Daniel Razz. That's.
The optionality it gives you, there's no other optionality
that I see if Alan got. Booted across the pond right
now. That's amazing.
So Flacco and then probably Nico, right?
I mean you got. To bring them back in shock.
I do think we may be forcing ourselves into too narrow of a
pot with two AFC quarterbacks that I do have.
That is a hesitation there where it's like I I.
Unless you want to we're. Deciding that we're going to put
in Purdy. Yes.
I, I, I, I I guess I get that, but I don't like being locked
into it before we've even before it's even.
Well, we could start with Alan Purdy and then we're locked into
it. I mean, I think you're locked
into the QB's early in the contest regardless is sort of
the way to play it. A lot of, I think I'll what
Henry was saying is a lot of people are going to lock in
their QBs in the first round and never change them.
Yes. That's kind of normally would be
optimal because you want to correctly pick the Super Bowl,
but it's a little that's. Essentially what we're doing,
but we're just doing trade. Off We're just doing trade off
with, yeah, I think it's very unique to the CMC thing, right?
Like, he's extremely unique. To.
It running back that could probably outscore.
Yeah, Matt Stone asking why don't you take Purdy now if you
think they go to the Super Bowl, that there's a strong case that
we should do that, but we're betting on CMC over Purdy.
Basically doing a slightly different build.
That's here. We have to take a running back
and because we're picking both sides of this Eagles and Tampa
game, are we? God, I I want to play Mike
Evans. But it feels like maybe it's
Rashad White or or. Or do we do DeAndre Swift and
just say that? No, that's really bad.
Rashad Devonta Smith is, is pretty, I mean we'll have,
you'll have the flexibility to make that decision.
Yeah, what about A.J. Brown?
I mean, we can. We'll know, right?
That's what I'm saying. That's true.
Yeah, I'm getting bad vibes on A.J.
Brown. Just.
Me too are. Thank you.
Real bet. Are you?
He's a gamer. He's gonna play.
AJ Brown's my, my spirit animal. AJ Brown's gonna play and tear
it up. Well, that's the beauty of this
one is we we don't have to make it.
But I have a feeling we'll be coming in here.
I saw the DNP and I was like. He's just chilling.
He's good. He's good.
I think he's good. He's walking around.
He's fine. So then, who is our defense?
Here we're we're not biased. Don't worry, we're.
No, we're totally unbiased. Spoiled for choice.
A defense here I like. I like all of these defensive
plays. Steeler's defense to stick it to
Liam. I like.
I kind of like Miami, too. Yeah.
I think. I think they're both fine,
though I I would be like jamming Steelers if Watt still had his
ACL intact. But yeah.
What a what Houston player are we playing if we're playing
Flacco to lose? Oh, oh, oh, sorry.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, sorry, Sorry, Nico.
So. Who are the full fades then?
Pittsburgh? And who's there's an NFC?
And Green Bay. And Green Bay the.
Blackburn doesn't need to lose, right?
We can just swap to Purdy regardless of what happens.
What? What happens if Flacco wins,
though? Is all of a sudden our Nico
Collins gets replaced by a 1X Brown then, which is pain
because someone else has that brown at 2X.
And so then we've got to get really contrarian somewhere.
And so we either are hoping that we were contrarian enough early
where we got a little bit of a lead where we're not buried or
we got to do something really funky.
Yeah. So yeah, we we kind of need
Flacco to lose. Is there any case for going like
Amari and Baker? I actually don't feel that great
about the Browns losing. I think the I I feel much better
about the Bucks losing than the Browns.
Yeah, I'm I'm kind of worried that Baker in a loss just
doesn't even score that many points though.
He's like. They only scored like 9 points
last weekend. He's super banged up.
What about love? Also, we can't do that 'cause we
would need a running back. Love I have to go to Singletary
in that if you're doing. This, yeah.
Yeah, I. Think the cleanest is just, I
think the cleanest is just pick the winner in this Cleveland and
Houston game and we're either playing Stroud or we're playing
Flacco, 'cause it's clean to go from Nico to Amari, you know?
Yeah you can tell this is just just gut check.
Do we know Ball, who's winning this one?
Do you guys want to try a different one that's not
McCaffrey Allen? Like I I let it sound kind of I
think a a a more challenging path than than necessary.
No, I like this a lot. I mean, this was a lot of fun to
think through. Well, I think it's good because
it it shows you the tougher decision points versus the kind
of chalk build where you just put in, you know, Purdy and
Lamar or whatever. Henry Henry had a good comment
in the chat. There, he says one way is to
play both QBs from the same game.
Locks in opening for Purdy, but Alan Rudolph is gross, yeah.
Yeah. Oh, that's interesting.
So if you could do it more with like, yeah, if you did like the
Dak, Jordan, Love kind of thing, maybe in a better game.
Yeah, that's a whole. You could do Mahomes tour and
you're playing AC Miami winner to go to the Super Bowl and play
the Niners. That's also.
Pretty gross though. Yeah the IT is.
I'm, I'm scared of those. What?
I'm usually not a weather bro, but man the weather's got me
shook and. And the idea is that either side
winning could be a team that could go all the way to the
Super. Bowl Yeah.
That's what you That's the way you want to play it, yeah.
Yeah, yeah. So which is it?
It is tough for those scenarios. It if it weren't for the weather
thing, it would be the Chiefs Dolphins game that you would
target for that path. Because.
Or if it was, if it was the Bills, Texans and the weather
was good, then you'd love to do Stroud.
And then you Stroud's losing for sure.
We know that. And then, yeah, get your Super
Bowl quarterback and Allen. Yeah.
The other thing as well is so quarterback, that's the high,
that's easily the highest scoring position and and and the
Cleveland, Houston game, that's the that's the first game and
and so do you want the information on that early or do
you want the information from the other games before you
decide what you're doing at that second quarterback spot?
Yes, I I think it's the second one.
That we want information first decide.
Can you be a second? Yeah, I don't.
I feel like Flacco's to play but I don't know how to not do it.
Is it Stafford? And then you've somehow moved
the kicker situation out, 'cause you're Yeah, if we're playing
Flacco to lose, we're playing the Rams to lose.
That's true. That's a good point.
That's a great one. I like that.
But then I We're still playing the Rams to lose, though.
Can we go? Can we go?
I mean the the Browns to lose. How do we fit the Browns in?
Yeah, then we then we go kaimi instead of Nika.
That's. Right.
And then Yep, where am I? I like that better.
Yeah, that was a good call, Draco.
Yep. Good to have some input.
And and then what you could, I mean, I guess you could do a.
Mari or. Mari you could do a Mari or no
Joko if anyone has strong I assume in this I mean in this
you. Could do Jerome board Mike Evans
now if you wanted to go to get the other running back?
Off. Yeah, a lot of two V twos start
to open up. For sure.
I like white Amari better and I think we can, Yeah, worry about
chalk. It's like play the best plays at
this point, yeah. Yeah.
I just. I feel like I like Njoku more
than Amari. Straight up right now and.
Not as one and just regular people.
Even in this, yeah. Wow.
Did what did. Where were you?
During Week 16 of the NFL season, where was Abari?
During Week 17 and 18 like and Joku's game log has been really
considered literally strong. He.
He was. He was on the winning BBM 4
lineup. That's where Amari was.
That's. It is Amari on the road though,
so do we think of that? No, he had.
Didn't he already? He had the 50 burger on the road
and. He he was on the road.
He broke the curse, OK? And.
They're in a shatter, dude. It's over.
Yeah, it's we'll ever talk about.
Mario and it's a he's in Houston in the Dome.
Then all of the road Amari stuff that goes out the window.
All right that that was fun. I I will be curious.
I know a lot of you guys have thoughts, Pluto.
I appreciate you weighing in some of you guys.
If you guys have other thoughts on this contest or strategy,
definitely drop it in the Discord.
We're eager to learn and pick your guys's brain on that.
We're obviously trying to figure this out on the fly, but a fun
format. And yeah, we will.
We'll keep you guys posted on how it goes.
Let's see, do we wanna check in on some FFPC stuff?
And then we'll we'll save some of the underdog drafting for the
end. Yeah.
So I guess I'll just start
because I I want to get Draco and Sacrilegious's Fresh
Thoughts on this stuff. But I guess, Pat, I will ask to
set it up. Have you made any big ownership
changes since the show last night?
No, I I kind of tweaked some of the smaller stuff that we were
talking about at the end of the show.
And so, having not made any major changes, I'd listen to
Jacob Sanderson's appearance with Davis Matic today, which
got my wheels turning a little bit.
He was touting the Ravens defense as a as like kind of the
pivot of pivots, which I actually really like, because
it's like the way that people won't fade them.
Most people will fade with Tucker, so I I actually boosted,
I think I boosted them from 1% to 2%.
Jacob. Sanderson's steam boost.
There, yeah. Put that in your Twitter bio.
Jacob got Crane to adjust his Baltimore Ravens.
Dean. Ownership in the playoff
contest. Let's see sacrilege.
Are you are you going to do a a batch of ownership for this with
Pat? Yeah, I had.
I did one and sent it over to Pat.
I definitely defer to Pat's ownership numbers over mine.
There were a couple spots, though last night on the show
where Pat was adjusting stuff. It did head in the direction
that some of mine were, so that made me feel smart.
That's true. Yeah, I still have.
Have you updated yours? I still have.
No, I need to do another run. I was waiting to see how you
updated before I did a run and then I did see the Easy had some
ownership he did as well on his tool that he came out with.
He had Tucker really high. I had I had the Ravens fade
overall really low. So I probably need to come up on
that a little bit. I I think that my favorite if
there's one that I'm going to flag plant on though it's I'm
pretty sure the boomers are going to flock to Fairbairn.
I have Fairbairn at like above 20%.
That's the kicker spot for me. Like, that's the chalk kicker.
And I feel pretty like in in my gut, that's the one where I'm
like, I think I'm, I'm on that one.
The the one where it's like Pat's talking directly to me
right now. So, like, when you project
something and you're like, what a wonderful opportunity this is,
you might be wrong in your projections.
Like I'm too low on my Cooper Cup ownership.
That's. What it's called.
I have Cooper Cup at 15, which feels like too high, but the
second I lowered I'm like, oh, what a great play.
I had him at 7:00 on my first run for reference, so probably
probably a little too low there. Yeah, I mean I I do agree like
fair Baron in that Dome feel so comfy.
I am just wondering if that Eagles ambiguity.
You know, my my take is that was going to soak up a lot of kicker
ownership where it's like, I can see this being a good game, but
I just do not want to deal with the Eagles.
Like I could see some of the Jake Elliott stuff really coming
up. Yeah, my pushback is Jake, so I
just pulled up four for Fours kicker projections.
Jake Elliott is kicker 5, and then Chase McLaughlin is kicker
9, Kayemi's kicker 10. So there's I think the Kicker
Bowl is probably gonna be. Only thing I will say, I don't
think anyone's actually looking at kicker projections when they
make their kicker. I think the Boomers might look
at kicker projections. I think they're pulling up their
kicker projections 10.2 versus 10.1.
I mean you got to go with with McLaughlin.
I mean, I was looking at defensive.
Projections last night, so whatever.
Yeah, and and the Texans are the fifth highest ranked defense,
ahead of the Eagles and ahead of the Bucks.
So if you're just going by projections, you would go Bucks
or Eagles kicker depending on who you're fading.
And then Houston D. Yeah, I I think I had Brown's DA
little higher than you had them too and that's kind of that's
the like snake eating its own tail trickle down effect of
these projections like you move one thing here and then now
you're you're chasing your tail everywhere else.
So yeah, it's really just a a cascading effect.
I think the Browns will be pretty popular on defense, but
it's just how much are they faded And I think it does feel
like sentiments pretty strong for the Browns to win.
When you're talking about Browns, when you hear like, I
don't know if the Browns will win, it's generally against the
Ravens. That's what people mean.
So I don't think they'll be as highly faded as the the like
line would reflect. Yeah, the OR Draco, do you, I
assume you got to maybe peruse some of the ownership.
Do you have any thoughts on that or just kind of macro thoughts
on the contest so far? And well the the the big thing
that that that struck out to me was that it does feel like
because running back is 10 that feels a little bit like it
should push Kyron up a bit And then like because it's like who
who who do you play Because you you can't play Gibbs because
then you're fading almond Ross and Brown.
So that that does feel like something where it's it's
pushing Kyron up and then he's not like he's projected decently
but not not like not like amazing or anything.
Not not like he's not like gapping anybody.
And then that could be something where it it opens up Cooper Cup
and Pooka pretty nicely. The other thought I had was and
and maybe this is this is kooky. But if the Eagles, despite all
expectations do actually go to the Super Bowl you're going to
really want and Jalen Hurts and if you look at the Vegas odds
they're only like 700 to get to the Super Bowl like that doesn't
that doesn't feel like an insane like bet.
No I know. Like I, I, I, I, I probably
sound like a crazy person. But that the the the
probabilities are don't seem like bad at all.
I mean, he definitely wasn't talking about his fingers not
working today, so. Well, I'm I'm also laughing
because I read Sean's piece over on Rotaviz right before the show
and he wrote up like how to play every single offense in like a
contrarian way too. And he literally just self
excluded from the Eagles thing, he said.
I'm not touching the Eagles like he's he's full fading the
Eagles. Wow.
It's I was just laughing. He was the one boy.
He just wrote two sentences and moved on to write, you know, 500
words about the ramps. I've taken actually a ton of
you. I've actually I love the the
Draco take there of of Hertz because like if he if Hertz is
right or righter than you know we're worried he will be.
The offense runs through him. He's got such scoring potential
and like, he willpower them. Like he will be the reason that
they make a Super Bowl run. If they do so, you're capturing
the points within the player. Ben brought this up when we were
in Discord the other day. We're kind of talking through
some of the ways to play this tournament and one, one kind of
fundamental lesson I think is trying to identify how the team
will win. Right?
One of our big hits from a few years ago was Cam Akers was like
super low owned against the Seahawks.
Everyone didn't want, no one really wanted to pick a Ram and
they just were betting on the Rams to lose that game.
But it's like you have this opportunity to take, if the Rams
win, they're probably running the ball well and so you you're
actually getting the player who's going to drive that upset
Derrick Henry back in the day like that.
It's like you're taking Henry over A.J.
Brown because if the Titans win, it's because that's going
through Henry. So Hertz gives you that
opportunity at quarterback, which is definitely interesting
at very low ownership. And he's going to outscore all
the other Eagles by so many points as well, if that.
Happens if the Super Bowl, yeah. If they make a run to the Super
Bowl, the the path is brutal. But to Sacrilege's point,
they're in the 4-5 game. In the 4-5 game, you just need
one of the other upsets and then they don't have to go through
San Francisco. I mean, it seems plausible,
right? Either the Packers or Rams
upset. The Eagles are then not going
through San Francisco. I think you maybe want the Rams
upset 'cause the Rams. Yes.
You want. The Rams.
You want the Rams 'cause you do. Not really having to go to San
Fran. And I think you have like a
small out of. The The Rams beating the Niners
once fall out. Well, that that's true.
That is true. That's definitely true.
But then let's say let's say the Niners win and then the Niners
beat the Eagles. Are you totally dead with CMC?
And let's say Kelsey you? You're probably dead if it's
Allen or Lamar, but you. But Jalen Hurts could be the
winning quarterback if if it's a a Chief Super Bowl and he Hurts
scores really well in three games.
I think even if it's a Ravens, honestly, I mean, I know you get
the double points for Lamar, but it it would just mean that Hurts
was way better than the other skill guys on the Eagles and
Lamar brought someone along. Right.
To A to a pretty substantial degree, obviously.
Like Zay, Flowers has a monster Super Bowl and gets the double
points and then hurts. Flowers can can beat Lamar.
Or what about James Cook? If it's a Bill's Super Bowl?
I mean, maybe, maybe. It's possible.
Yeah. Allen, a couple years ago was
the optimum QB in two games, was it?
Two, I thought. It was, I think it was two.
Wow. The year that they lost the the
Chiefs. The Chiefs.
They had the monster first game I think against the Patriots and
then lost the Chiefs in the monster shootout and I think it
would play 2. And it was Chiefs, Bengals I
think, in the in the conference championship, right?
Yep. Last year or Oh no, you're
talking two years ago. Yeah, and it became, it became
Bengals, Rams. And it ended up being, I think,
like Chase Cop with Allen was off.
Yeah, I'm not 100% certain. No, I think that's right, I
think. That's right.
Yep. And and it is the question of
like it, it's not just Hertz versus Allen.
It's Hertz and Diggs versus Allen and A.J.
Brown or Devante. And if A.J.
Brown and Devon to like basically don't play or or or or
like they they're the the fears about them come to pass like the
the digs piece could really push you over the top.
Yep. Yeah, and one give.
Just sorry I just was gonna or sorry no finish that thought
Pat. Well, I just, I was just saying
you just, you need in order for that to happen, like in order
for for you to take a Hertz, you know, you want that guy to be
able to go absolutely nuclear in two games and at least make you
live in the two games and and that's hurts like hurts.
And do that. You can rush for five touchdowns
in two games and you're like, all right, well, and then he can
do it in a way that that leaves a skilled position behind by
rushing for all the TV. Exactly.
Yeah. He does it himself.
Yeah. So he's actually a lot more
appealing in my home. He's interesting, yeah.
Yeah. It's a good take.
I just want to give a couple plugs if you guys missed it last
night, Pat has his ownership projections available.
If you guys are legendary, Upside Subs Discord members, you
can get in there. If you're ship chasing YouTube
members who have unlocked that discord, it's pinned in there.
And I also wanted to give a shout out.
Sacrilegious referenced it before Easy released.
A really cool tool for you know, kind of hand building out
various brackets in scenarios on his site.
I'll drop that link down below, but it's a really cool way to
basically build out a bracket and then you can kind of run and
see what the optimal using his projections would be for that
bracket. And then you can kind of start
to fiddle around with different like 2V twos, different
scenarios kind of see how much am I giving up and then also
seeing like which players play better in like 3 game scenarios
versus just one. So a really cool tool and plug
for built. The ship chasing Discord, If
you're in there, there's a version of the tool with my
ownership projections built into it.
So. Yep, jump out the ship chasing
Discord. Yes, very, very cool stuff
there. The the thing I've been thinking
about lately that I can't square is that I just feel in my bones
people wanting to get off Kelsey and play Pacheco.
I feel it. And yet, I'm just really
struggling to figure out which tight end is going to backfill
behind him. There has to be in Joku.
I'm pretty sure. In Joku.
Then yeah. But to what?
Ext Joku, I've thought about this too, Pete since last night
and I I think you're completely right.
I think. And Joku winds up higher than
Amari. I think he may wind up higher
than Kelsey. Wow.
Pat, I don't think you had that. But no, I don't.
No, I haven't. I have an amari, but I could.
I could see being wrong on that and and Kelsey coming down.
I mean, the narrative is flipped on Kelsey.
People don't want to play Kelsey.
They don't want to play him. But I also, this is like what
Zach was saying with having 7% Cooper cut because if you tell
me that in Joko has more than Kelsey, I'm going to tell you
Kelsey's the best fucking player in the tournament.
I I actually do want to play him at that point.
I think he catches 8 balls. Even if they lose in the first
game like I I they have to get something going.
They don't have pass catchers. He's their dude.
He's had a bad season. People are really down on him,
but I think it's just pretty like would it shock anybody if
he comes out and and and is basically catching the vast,
like the, you know, 35% of their balls in the playoffs.
I mean, I just, I don't think it'll be shocking at all.
It's good, I don't think. It's like 8 catches.
IS is 12 points on receptions alone.
Wait is time, Premium is. Time Premium.
I almost. Forgot.
I don't think camp, it's eight for 45 yards.
Like it's 8 catches, you know, like he has the potential to do
something that a lot of tight ends.
Can't do but with the. Joke.
It's not even potential The joke.
Who's been doing that? He's doing this, he's been.
But the joke who goes? Way behind Kelsey in these in
the best ball drafts. He does, but that's also an
advancement thing where getting your team to the finals is more
important than in this format. It is, but people don't really
want to lose their tight end in tight end premium.
But I'm saying this year there's no tight end that's separating
that makes you feel that opportunity cost.
I yeah, I agree to, I agree to an extent.
But just that that little extra thing of like Kelsey's gonna
play more games. So therefore.
But I disagree because most people are playing both the
Browns and Chiefs. To be one and done that would be
like the chalk scenario. Yeah.
No, I don't. Think you're playing chief?
No, I think people were playing Dolphins one and done.
The The vibes on the Dolphins are bad right now.
No, no, I'm saying people or sorry.
I'm saying everyone is assuming Travis Kelsey and David Najoku
each play two games. Sorry, That's oh.
Two and done. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah. Yeah.
Sorry, one win. One win and then lost.
But yeah, that that's why I'm saying I don't know if that
separates. Isn't isn't Dalton Kincaid like
such a good? Yeah, and that's cause 'cause I
had Toronto, I was just gonna say, as he made that case on
stealing bananas today. And I wanted to to say no, but.
I think it's so you revealed before the show that you have a
lamp in your your study. That's from the same company
that Liam got. How much have you been hanging
out with Liam? I I might need to throw the lamp
out. Lamp chopping together.
I so I had Kincaid on my first run.
I had it at 20%, 'cause I I let my own brain get in my way when
I'm doing these projections, like, and then what are people
going to do when they think about the ownership?
And so, like, I had steamed Kincaid all the way up in my
head of like, this is such a sick play, and I had Lamar
really high in my first run and I I brought him down after I saw
Pat's. But yeah, the more I think about
it, Kincaid feels really sick. The other one that I really
like, someone's going to have to drag me off this play.
But I'm pretty sure Jamir Gibbs has to be one of the best plays
in the contest too. With like I had almond raw lower
and I was still considering a fade.
And then after seeing what Pat had on him and easy had on him
and like hearing the sentiment around like well, you got to
just play almond raw. It's like, I'm pretty sure I
just got to play Gibbs on, like every team I make then.
It's such a clean pivot from almond raw kyron to Gibbs puka
or or or Cook as well it it feels like a really natural
pivot. Yeah, Davis was mentioning that
one. It's like when we go to look at
DFS projections on Sunday, there's gonna be like basically
like half a point separating that 2V2, but like no one's
gonna play that side. That's what I'm.
Saying I don't, for whatever reason, I and A lot of sharp
people, all, all of you guys, have been saying the Gibbs
thing. I don't.
I don't see it as that clean. I see it as a material
difference because of Montgomery's role, because of
the way Gibbs has been not used as well as I've wanted them to
be used at times. Like Almanro's going to run
around on every drop back. He's going to get a ton of
targets. Gibbs doesn't always get all the
receiving. I mean, I know the ceiling is
there. I think in a win where Gibbs
performs, Almanro gets there as well.
Like how does Gibbs bury Almanro?
In the in those games that we've seen Gibbs have those nuclear
like 35 point games where he he just gets, he soaks up a couple
of the touchdowns he has like an explosive play and Alman Rah
still gets there. You know Alman Rah gets his
twenty points easy, no problem. But you're just asking for Gibbs
to have an explosive play and a touchdown basically, which like
he's he's, well, you know, I I mean I don't know I'm I'm kinda,
I I might be too bullish on Gibbs, but I think he's gonna
find his way to a lot of my lineups here.
I think a lot. Of people you You can bury him
too, if Kyron duds, I think. I don't think it has to be a 2V2
there necessarily. Well, I I see.
Your running backs and like if if all the other running.
If if a lot of the other running backs dud and and and Gibbs gets
20 and and and all the other running backs are like 10 like I
don't think, I don't think it's just Gibbs versus almond raw
like you have to factor in how the N running back is.
Overall, and I I do think it's best as a 2V2 because it gets
you off of Kyron, who's gonna be chalky.
It's gonna be really hard to get off Kyron without doing
something like going to Gibbs. And so, like, you might as well
take advantage of that move and go to cup and puka where that's
kind of like how you want to attack the Lions anyway.
Like the the whole peel of this matchup is really through the
air. So yeah, you need you need to
pick the right RAM, and you need that guy to go off and then you
can still lose Dominaram. I don't know why it is, but I
just don't. I don't feel as confident as you
guys in that in that pivot. I mean, I just.
Well so the reason too like for people who also or or maybe not
fully familiar with this contest like they're you know it's
likely that a Lion player is in the optimal right.
And so there's scenarios where the Amman Raw teams are very
chalky or say like a chalk bracket hits like if Jamir Gibbs
even outscores Amman Raw by .1 points.
Like that can be the difference between winning $500,000 and
dropping down just because of that configuration.
So I think you are getting into like a GPP bro element with it,
Gretch where I think everyone agrees Mon Raw is the the better
play the better projected play. But the like what you win you
when you win thing with Gibbs could be very outsized.
Yeah, I think about 66% right now is what I have for Amanurab
versus I think 19 for for Gibbs. So you know, it's like is, is it
3? Is he three times more likely to
win that 2V2 kind of thing, 'cause then you're also gaining,
actually understates it because you're also gaining leverage
when you move from Kyren to the wide receiver.
So, you know, you're kind of saying the field's going to tell
you my Amen RA Kyron 2V2V2 versus your Gibbs Puka or Gibbs
Cup is like four to five times more likely to be the higher
scoring combination. And I think that's wrong.
Yeah 'cause you got to think about the combinatorial
ownership of Kyren plus Alman RAW like that.
Those are those are so. You don't have to play Kyren to
play Alman Raw. I I reject you guys's 2V2.
You guys have made this all about the two V2.
If CMC is a lock there's every other running back in the in the
contest. Could be your RV.
Two, you don't have to. Do it, but you don't have.
Most people are. Gonna do it, but the sure the
chalk will be this. So you're still going against
the chalk with this 2V2? And the I I think the other
thing as well is so like we're we're gravitating towards Gibbs
as a pivot off of Kyron because Kyron feels awful, but then
obviously Gibbs comes, comes out at a cost of Amirah.
The problem then is if you don't want Gibbs, you don't want
Kyron, you don't want Gibbs. Who are your utter pivots?
You're talking like Rashad White or Rashad White.
Aaron Jones, Aaron James Cook Do.
We do. We not like the Dolphins running
backs. I feel like the Dolphins.
Dolphins, running backs, A Chan, Aaron Jones, James Cook, Those
are the places I'd go for RB2. I actually think so.
That's all I was trying to say. I'm not like, I'm not
necessarily trying to fully argue the Gibson thing.
It's just that, like, I don't want the almond raw point to get
tied too closely to. You have to play Kyron, 'cause I
agree with you guys that Kyron is not probably a strong play.
He's probably a pretty good fade and I don't think you have to do
that if you go to Almond Raw. In fact, I don't think you want
to for the reasons you guys were saying.
It's not the Almond Raw. Kyron thing is going to be tied,
really. High I think.
I think it's mainly Gretch too, like thinking because you can
play both Gibbs in a Monroe and win loss scenarios.
It's like one of those simple logical pivots where you don't
have to like reconstruct a back bracket like some of these other
ones. Like if you are playing a Chan
and stuff Like it might require you to like rethink how you're
playing the entire bracket with the soft fade.
Because most people are going to be playing both sides of this
game anyways. So it's like an immediate, just
like simple lever to pull. It's also nice if you go Gibbs
and Cup or Gibbs and Puka. You're like, you're, I think,
fading the Lions, right? You're the cleanest way this
goes for you is that the Lions lose.
They dump off to Gibbs a bunch in garbage time.
It's kind of like the Rams or the the Ravens loss where like,
Gibbs gets there but the kind of offense stinks kind of set up.
Then they lose. Then let's say that Kyron's the
highest scoring Ram from that game, but now they go and play
the 49ers and you're feeling OK about Puka or Cup coming and and
passing Kyron in that two game sample.
You know, obviously you'd love for PUKA or Cup to go off in the
round in the first round too, but I think you don't even like
need that. You just need the Lions to lose
and Gibbs to outscore Aman RA and then you've got that running
back taken care of. Everyone that has Kyron is now a
little bit of a concern, but you have another opportunity to
outscore them. You guys have definitely talked
me into the Gibbs thing a little bit.
For the record. I mean, I I definitely like it.
I don't think it's like something that I would be
comfortable pivoting to and and everything.
But no, no, you guys are making different points, yeah.
It's definitely a poor and I think it like what's so funny is
when we talk through all these like across our entries, it's
like saying you know you'd want to be like 10 to 15% lower than
market on Air SB and 10 to 15% higher on Gibbs, like just kind
of like sliding that over that makes sense.
He has the one. 50 in with Leonie for your portfolio.
We're gonna get 75 in, OK? The the pivot, I think it was
mentioned the pivot from Tyre and Tyriq to Echhan at Puka,
that's also like super, I think pretty clean as well.
Well, Monster's looking like he's gonna play.
And so I think I just lowered a Chan down to like 3%.
I don't think anyone gets there now if Monster's playing.
That RB2 question is so, it is so interesting and is such a
constraint. Another one Sean brought up
tonight today when we recorded he he he brought up Najee Harris
because that RB2 spot is is that challenge.
Pat's about to put his feet up on here, Khedira style.
I read that I I was just imagining like Sean.
Just like gritting his teeth as he typed it out like screenshot.
No, Sean. Sean, like, he has like a sick
pleasure for that type of stuff. Like when he actually gets to
tout the guys, he's always faded.
I know you don't like no watching Sean, like, have to
write about like Joe Mixon or Leonard Fournette over the past
few years that he hates every second of it.
Well, that's true, yeah. He's never come around.
Look at Ness. Ness pops up in the chat.
Now we're talking about. I still blame Nez.
For wanting the Steelers to make the playoffs, I think that's why
we have to deal with it. That's his.
Fault for sure. Let's see in any other kind of
bigger angles. You know, for I don't know if
you guys got to watch the show last night or things.
You guys are fine. Particularly interesting right
now as far as decision points. Easy in the chat, says Puke.
Gus Edwards and I I've got to be honest, I definitely thought
through this of like my ultra contrarian way to play.
Like if you did, if you happen to do like a Purdy team where
you're like you're stuck at running back and you're like,
well, Lamar gets all the touchdowns vultured by Gus
Edwards and I just do it that way.
I I don't think I'm getting there on any of them.
But it was a thought I had in my brain for a second.
It's such a weird needle to thread, right?
Gus Edwards vultures are going to be positively correlated with
like the Ravens rolling, but you don't want them to roll like
more than two games. Like you want the one game where
it gets you the two vultures and then they flame.
Flame out is probably what you need for that.
Yeah, cause, cause. But.
And then it's like, and who do they lose to, to then go to the
Super Bowl, where you're still feeling good about, like they
can't lose to the Bills, you know, 'cause then you're feeling
pretty buried by the Allen CMC teams?
If so, yeah, it does. What?
You're hoping for is, and I can actually envision this, right,
You're going against the Cleveland Browns defense and
they run the ball. The Gus scores like a couple
touchdowns in the first half. They control the game and then
at the end, Flacco just starts chucking it and he storms back
and like before the Ravens know it like it's like tied.
And then they they like stall out on a drive.
They punt it back off to Flacco. Flacco comes marching down the
field, kick a game-winning field goal.
Ravens lose. They felt like they were gonna
win the game the whole time and they.
Played, Yeah. One of those, one of those
second halves where they have a bunch of three nows and they
just get like no plays on offense at.
All. Yeah, exactly.
And Gus was rolling in the first half.
He had a nice little score and then they then they lose is.
That gonna happen? That gonna happen.
It it I, yeah. Like I said, it rolled around in
my brain for a little bit. It's probably not making the the
cut. It's gonna end up on the I.
Think it just made my. Shopping floor.
Oh my gosh, I. Like it?
That's ready for it. It really is part with with
these backs too, where you you just have no pass catching stuff
to hang your hat on and then you have like Kareem, Hunt, Vulture.
There's just so many attack vectors for some of these plays.
One thought I had with with with sort of tight end ownership
condensing on Kelsey and and and Joku and obviously it Kel.
Kelsey's older the the the last couple of games have not been
great. It it it does feel like a year
where the the the overall tight end projections are are sort of
low. And so if you if you can get a
fluke FFPC tight end game from a random guy like that that that
could be really, really meaningful.
Like, I know, Zach, you had said to me like a couple of weeks
ago, Jake Ferguson. Whereas like if Jake Ferguson
can just smash the other tight ends, not necessarily CD Lamb,
then that could be something that that.
Sort of works. Not like again, still like a low
percentage play, but those sort of plays seem more in in play
than than before. Yeah, if you're playing like a
Cowboys lose in in one or two you could.
But for me, like the I think Jake Ferguson's probably a
little too gross for me to get there.
But like Dallas Goddard feels pretty good.
Especially like if it's really ambiguous on Saturday Still
about the injury status of the Eagles and maybe people aren't
like get Goddard doesn't catch quite as much steam because
people think A.J. Brown might play.
People think you know Devonta Smith's fine.
Maybe you just go Dallas Goddard and.
Are you playing them to lose in that scenario?
Like are you then playing Mike Evans?
Are you playing a buck skill player with him?
Yeah, I think so. I think with Goddard you
probably do want them to lose because if they win he's
probably smashing cause A.J. Brown is out and then A.J.
Brown is maybe coming back and then the targets get diluted.
He would be my the guy. I was gonna mention that to me
checks all the box boxes that Draco is describing.
Where the opportunity cost is low, the targets could be there.
It's Dalton Schultz. That's why I was literally just
about to say Dalton. Schultz I love oh, don't get me
on Dalton Schultz. I've been hammering him lately
in the playoff contest. I literally am.
I just pulled up Houston and I was just like waiting to see if
you guys are gonna be psyched about Dalton Schultz and then
raise his ownership to 5%, which is what I've just done.
I did just check because Noah Brown was looking dicey.
He is officially questionable. He got into practice today, so
it does look like he's gonna play, but like, still, that guy
who could just vacuum up. I mean, he's averaged 7 targets
over the past three weeks. He could easily get peppered in
that spot and have like a pretty sick score in a losing game at
just nil ownership. God damn it, I hate that.
How How right that is. You brought it up last night and
I just pretended like you didn't say it.
And then like you got me tonight.
He had eight catches against Cleveland last time.
No. There you go.
One other guy that I'll float, Fucker Craft.
Yeah, what's what's the splits with him in Musgrave right now?
'Cause Musgrave's back now, right?
Yeah, that's why is. You made.
Why? Why isn't?
Fat cracking himself up. So I'm.
Not, I'm not. I'm laughing specifically at
Zach. Just going.
Yuck. I just.
I would Musgrave back. I mean, he just do you want to
play a tight end committee there in a really spread out offense?
I don't know. How's Musgrave looking?
Are we? Are we sure he's going to play
much? I.
Mean. He's here, right?
But yeah, this contest feels a lot more spread out than than it
has been in the past. And we're just sitting here like
naming all of these like ancillary pieces that I one of
these names is going to be right.
Like. I mean, it's definitely
possible. I just think the thing, the
reason I like the Schultz stuff not to beat a dead horse is
because the opportunity cost is so low.
And you don't have to tell yourself these gal brain things.
Like with the Cowboys where it's like, well, Jake Ferguson scores
2 TDs and they lose. And like, you know, you don't
have to do that with the Dalton Schultz play.
And you're only fading, Nico, in terms of who's gonna actually be
in other people's lineups when a lot of these.
On the kicker, indeed. You have to fade like 3 or 4
teammates that are gonna be in at least 15% of lineups and that
makes it really challenging, yeah.
Yeah, I I take it back. Gibbs isn't the best play.
It's it's Schultz. Schultz is a really good play.
Paul Paul says dudes could literally sit around and name
fringe FMPC playoff contest plays it at the best time.
I mean that's. Really.
What this? Entire week is.
That is part of the deal with with Gibbs though and I I do
think that's that's part of what makes me think that's a valuable
one is like I mean Almanac just have like a three catch game and
and there's no one else that's being played for the Lions.
There's no Laporta, no one's actually going to go to Dave for
Montgomery, no one's playing golf.
So you don't get buried and you do fill a running back slot.
I mean all it takes is he could have like a 12 point game and be
the right play. Although in that scenario you
might have just wanted to fade the Lions.
Let me ask you guys this, Kelsey versus Pacheco, do you think
Pacheco can come in higher than Kelsey?
I do. I think I had them really close.
Let me. You originally had 44% Kelsey
and 34% Pacheco. OK.
I don't know if you updated that, but I currently have
Kelsey 41 and Pacheco 40, but I just have a few more tight end
percentages to play around with and I can flip them.
I could do it if. You think of all the factors you
need for that to happen. The The only hang up is like a
tight end surging chalk to backfill it.
But when you think about how gross running back is and people
are out here hunting and just trying to find any other viable
running back play, no one likes Kelsey.
Everyone hates Kelsey right now. It's like the only thing is, do
we have a champion, a new contender who can step up into
that spot? With McKinnon not likely to play
and yeah, I mean, I think Pacheco's humors.
Love Pacheco too. Pacheco's the best RB2 play in
the tournament though like he is.
He's legitimately a better player than Kyron too that
they're gonna probably their most likely outcome is to play
like 2 games right? Like that you probably this
takes away. Some of Kyron's ownership, I
think. I think Kyron's gonna come in
lower own than we think if Pacheco was the highest.
Owner, I think you're right. What if I told you guys that ETR
has Devon Singletary projected for more points this week than
Pacheco? Oh, that would leave it below my
mind. The Pat, the the point about
Kyron. I've been feeling that was gonna
happen too. So I think that's.
I think that's right because everyone I'm hearing is saying
play puka or cup. And yeah, no one wants to play
Kyron. Yeah.
Yeah, I I I could be. I think this the not having it
it it really does come down to Najoku.
If Najoku can separate from Amari from the Browns D stuff, I
I could certainly see it happening.
But Nijoku is clearly the hinge point on all of this.
Should we build a team? Yeah, I actually already got us
registered here. I'm excited to see whether this
is a Gibbs, Pacheco or Colin Schultz team.
Let's start with with Drake and sacrilegious here.
Draco, why don't why don't you kick us off?
I will as a jungle. Maniacal laugh, yeah.
I'll go for good puka. Puka and the cool.
OK. All right.
I'm gonna. I'm gonna keep us pretty chalk.
But I think he comes in under what I would consider optimal.
We'll just go, Lamar. All right.
Yep. I also, this just reminded me,
Pat, someone mentioned this in the comments of our video
yesterday and I thought it was a pretty good point.
Just we know how even when you're doing like season long
home drafts, like people get anchored to the Yahoo ADP order
and stuff talking about like the order some of these guys are
listed in here unless you're on NFC where Carson Wentz is number
one. I do think it's kind of like an
interesting thing to not maybe like a really light tiebreaker.
I've just seen like, which guys funnel to the top.
That's interesting. Yeah.
I should, I should go in and and see.
I mean, it is right there at Mostard Over 8 Chan.
I mean, I think right. I think people will break ties
to Mostert. Yeah, he's he's higher.
I mean, you got it. He's higher.
All right, Gretch, with they're giving you this pick.
Me. I don't.
Yeah, 'cause then we go, 'cause we went Draco set.
Then we just go right down. Yeah, you know what I like when
we have the guests, I like just eating the chalk and letting
everyone else gal brain here because if we if we go to gal
brain then we can't, we got to wide it back.
So I'll go ahead and just put CD Lay of it and we could keep it
moving. We just said he was the best
player of the tournament, so I'm going to go Dalton Schultz.
There you go. I mean this.
Had only Dalton Schultz. Yeah, I'm going to take.
I'm going to take Pete's line of thinking and do Christian
McCaffrey, and I want to see what these guys do at RB2 now,
All right? Back to the maniacal Draco I I
was hoping. I'd get somebody else to say
this one I'll I'll go for Gibbs for or B2.
There you go. I I feel like it had to be after
the conversation here this this came preloaded with Gibbs and
Dalton Schultz. I'm going to go ahead and go
Mike Evans then. Yeah, he's he's a guy that I
feel like we haven't talked a lot about the box, you know, the
Eagles, I think are pulling most of the the discourse right now.
But God, he's an awesome play. My God.
He is. He is.
Gibbs. Gibbs.
But not overwhelmingly. Gibbs and Schultz kind of pulls
Pacheco and Kelsey out of the lineup.
Is that accurate? That's how I'm That's how I was
leaning. I was.
Thinking that you could go rice, you're saying?
I think, yeah, I was just sort of thinking out.
I was wondering if that's what you guys were seeing as well?
I thought, you've been fading to Chiefs for a second, but yeah,
yeah, yeah. I think that's a really cool
angle, right, Gretch? Because we're going to want some
rice on our teams. And so then you ask yourself,
what kind of teams do you get to?
Rashi Rice, right? That's what I was going to do,
yeah. I love it, but I got to pick
someone I guess first. OK, so if we're going.
No, it's up. It's back to Pete, actually.
Oh, it's back to Pete. Wait.
Well, I'll, I'll just, I'll, I'll do it.
I'll do the Rashi rice. Don't tempt him.
That was going to be my pick. I was picking up.
You just. Stole your idea.
All right, I'm going to go Jake Elliott, Eagles.
Just blow it. They are very good at at blowing
it this year. Well, I'm gonna go Miami's.
No, I don't. We don't want to play Miami's
defense. And I guess if somebody want to
play Tyreke, they still could. What?
Do we have any games that we have not hit yet?
Any games? We need a brown.
No, we guess we don't need a brown.
We could pick them to lose. We've hit every game.
Oh, we don't have Buffalo. We don't.
Yeah, we can throw digs in one. We haven't done any digs yet.
I don't like it. He's one of my least favorite
plays in the whole tournament. But I unless you guys want to
play the Bills in different direction here, but I think
digs. Is.
I mean, we're playing the Ravens Super Bowl.
What do you think? Like, is is Kincaid 2
contrarian? We're already pretty contrarian.
We don't really need it either. Yeah, yeah.
I think part of the Schultz thing is like, it fills the
tight ends, right? You know.
So with Schultz, are we playing Cleveland to win, or are we
saying that Schultz is the optimal tight end over two
games? It's a good point.
I think we should probably play Play A Brown.
Yeah, probably. And are we on, Amari then?
Because we're off. Yeah.
I think this would probably be the spot to get your Amari
right. Yeah, this would be the spot to
do, Amari. This is a fun team.
Yeah, this took. A.
Lot of levels, yeah. A lot of good pivots.
So 34 fade Miami maybe and the and the DST is.
The DST is Steelers. I think we could go Miami D if
we wanted to, we could right, Basically want to randomize D
so. Yeah, I think we can.
We can just randomize between these three.
Yeah, I mean it's it's an interesting what what's
interesting about this build is you're full fading, the two
chock full fades, but you're so unique in so many other spots,
which makes it fun. I like that.
So for the audio listeners Lamar and CMC Jamir Gibbs Puka Nakua,
CD Lamb, Rashi Rice Mike Evans Amari Cooper Stefan Diggs,
Dalton Schultz, Jake Elliott, Miami Defense, I this one's
super fun to me because it doesn't feel like we're giving
up that much projected points. Like it doesn't feel Galaxy
brainy to me. Now all these pivots feel like
reasonable pivot plays that we've talked about when we've
hitting on these teams. We want to get a little Rishi
Rice in here. We want to get a little Amari in
here. We want to get a little Gibbs in
here, like they're all reasonable plays.
What I like about this line up is that every time we made a
pivot, we were like, what does that open up for this line up?
And then we took advantage of that.
So like Dalton, Schultz, then we go to Amari, you know, then we
go to Rishi Rice. I love that pivot, right?
And so it it kind of all works together.
We get off, we get off Kyron because we get Gibbs.
We, you know, it's like. Would you say that this lineup
tells a story I was well? It it it's cool because like you
said, I do think a lot of ways like phone shitter, hand
builders will do this contest is you'll make the one pivot,
right. You will do just the Amman rod
of Gibbs and then build out. But then actually really
thinking through what does that open up roster construction wise
and just send you down a completely different path in a
logical way is pretty cool. Yep.
I have with them 13 points and on weekly projection off of the
using the ether projection. 13 points off of the Boomer up
though. Oh, that's pretty good.
That's. Wow.
Yeah, with probably almost half the ownership half.
Yeah, that's insane. Like 2 turds the ownership.
We just We built the nuts Don't do bus Bros.
Yeah, don't do bus. This is too sick of a team.
Well, you'll know that Liam was gonna put this team in, but with
Kincaid, so at least we've got. Yes, all right, I want to talk a
little bit of underdog here. We definitely need to with with
sacrilegious here you've been firing, doing content, all kinds
of stuff. We still have some fun contests
up this fun the Gauntlet 2 up, which still has a lot of entries
remaining 50K to 1st. The little Gauntlet is about to
close like here within a few minutes.
So if you want to get your final ones in there, there's some
mittens. But sacrilege?
Just give us a little state of the playoff best ball landscape
with only a couple days to go here.
Yeah for for me this last like kind of home stretch has just
been still trying to get down volume.
I think I'm I'm approaching 900 teams now so we've is your goal
to hit 1000. That was my that was my original
goal. But it's feeling rather lofty at
this point, yeah. It's I was making fun of Davis
for saying he had like, 275 on the swell cast.
Yeah, it's it's gonna be tough to get to 1000.
I my, my, like, new attainable goal is to just Max the gauntlet
too, which is rough like that's that's a lot of drafting from
when it dropped to you know, Saturday.
And I it's not like I don't have other stuff to do but.
Wait, what are you at right now? How many have you gotten in?
Oh, where are we at right now? Gauntlet 2 is at oh, I'm.
I'm just under the halfway point.
I got to 74. Pat, I don't know if you
noticed, but I was ripping Gauntlet 2, so we were streaming
DK earlier. I didn't.
I. Didn't.
That's great. No, you were.
You were. You were quite interactive, you
know. You remind me of.
You know, like a bodybuilder when, like, they're eating like
pounds and pounds of steak, but they eat so much steak they cry
when they do it. Yeah, it's no longer.
It's no. It's reached way past the point
of enjoyment. This is not.
A good sacrilegious on our stream today was compared to DK
Metcalf or A.J. Brown.
Unclear which, but I mean now Bodybuilder as well.
And and nez asked all manual nez not only all manual.
How about all single table? I mean I I guess that's a little
bit of a stretch. There were some mittens where it
was. It was going where I had AI not
a ton. I I have time to touch grass
after I ship these playoff contests.
But no I I did multi table a couple but never really like.
Ideally not multi tabling. I I did at a time with because I
get the tool up and I'll get tool draft tool draft on each of
my monitors. A lot of the time I can get
myself to the point where I can build my queue out well enough
to where if I never check it again after five or six rounds,
it'll be OK. And sometimes I can, like, tab
back if I need to. So that's how like a normal
draft takes. If I do a full draft without
switching before the end of round 10, it's 10 minutes.
And then if I do it the way that I do most of them, they're like
between 5:00 and 6:00 minutes, and then I might have to tab
back once. But right now it's been about
just hammering the Texans and hammering the Bucks for me.
Because those teams can't come up in price enough now, like
with their their odds to make conference championship like
they're low, but with how good those players are for like
advance rate pieces. And like where they're just
stuck in ADP because of like all the volume that's gotten in.
And you know, the Browns have now shot up and I had so much
Browns early, but it's like let me go ahead and get a ton of
Texans to try. And just like it's not
necessarily hedging the bet. I mean in some ways it is
hedging that bet a little bit because I like the Texans to
upset the Browns, you know. So I I want to play that game
both ways. I've also been getting more Rams
and more bills now that we have the contest where the AD PS, you
know, the historical AD PS don't matter as much.
That's kind of out on those lower probability playoff teams
earlier where I got some of them, but you know, I think I
only ended up with like 6% Josh Allen in the the first Gauntlet.
So definitely good to to mix some of that in.
What I've been noticing now is you get a lot more casuals in
there and so it's just a lot more volatile in your rooms,
like you can build some absolute monsters and the vibes on Miami
are terrible. Like when I when I hear anyone
talk anything positive about Miami, I'm like, man, because
the best ball landscape does not reflect that.
Like people Tyreke Hill will drop to like the fifth round
sometimes, you know, like people don't want to click it at all.
Miami I don't know if you've heard Miami's never going to
score points again because they're in a Blizzard and you
know they'll just they're never going to score any fantasy
points again for the rest of their.
Lives. I believe the definitive
analysis was to his brain was going to.
Freeze. I I was cracking up at that
yesterday. Yeah, I've been hitting.
I've been hitting the. Scientifically verified.
The 49ers hard at the back end of the draft, because you can
just take that. And then your best case scenario
is people with the 49ers slide. Because that's inexplicably
happening right now, too. Like I've gotten a couple 3
49ers combos. I've I've gotten ACMC Purdy
combo, which, like that hadn't been possible since, like the
first couple weeks of the first gauntlet.
So being able to get that in with the current ADP landscape,
that one feels like a a pretty strong team.
But then yeah, you you open yourself up to a really
favorable either Miami and San Francisco super team where
you're like I just get all the best Miami pieces and then I mix
in some Tampa Bay and Houston for advance rate stuff alongside
that in case that Miami game is low scoring.
And then I I hope to sneak it into the second round and and
Miami upsets KC and then I'm cooking.
Yeah. That's kind of the state of of
the market currently. Yeah, yeah, Some of those, the
prices, Eagles or the other team, that's obviously just
incredibly cheap right now. But what's weird to me is like,
you think about the Dolphin slide and like, you know, the
Chiefs maybe you could say, have stayed fixed or slightly pushed
up. But it's not like the Bucks AD
PS are moving up in tandem with an Eagle's fade by the market,
which is really weird. I mean, yeah, it's not weird in
that the market isn't going to think rationally in that way,
but it's like, man, it does make the Bucks look really good in
that situation too. Yeah, I've been trying to see.
I've been drafting more on DraftKings the last couple days
and you can literally do stuff like you can do like Lamar and
get you like get some 49ers and like Zake Flowers and then just
stack the entire Eagles offense. That's I I understand the
negativity around them, but that feels like kind of a cheat code
when you're you're like I need advance rate guys and I can just
take all the Eagles. Yeah.
Yeah, and Pat is Pat's taking my helping of Eagles.
So you know, that way someone will win something for legendary
upside. It's either going to be Pat when
the Eagles smash, or it's going to be me with my full Eagle
spade. And you're just betting the
bucks out of it? I'm, I'm hammering the bucks
lately. I've gotten myself, I wasn't
taking very many bucks at all early because they were just,
they weren't even a sure thing to make the playoffs.
I wasn't really touching any of the NFC South teams and I
started taking my like, leans going into Week 17 or week 18
rather. Or I want to start mixing in
bucks and I want to start mixing in Texans because I think I'm
going to play like they each win their games.
And those are the pieces that I don't have exposure to in My
Portfolio where I really like them for like round one advance
rate purposes. And my my whole portfolio is
like very heavily skewed 49ers. Ravens like Lamar is my most
owned quarterback at 20, just under 25%.
And that's come down substantially because I got him.
I was getting a ton of Lamar like the second and third round
and so I haven't been getting as much lately.
And then for wide receivers like all the 49ers guys, it's IU
Kittle, CD Lamb. Like those are all my my highest
owned guys. I don't have as much Debo
because he goes first out of those guys and I will always
take a 49er pretty much if they're there.
But. I have a question for you,
'cause I noticed when I was doing a lot of the early drafts,
like before the playoffs settled and I was doing Niner stuff, I
was, you know, doing a lot more of like the late Niner stuff,
right? Like, you know, all your Juwan
Jennings, the Gal Brain, Ronnie Bell type stuff.
Now I I don't know if I'm, I've just lost the plot or if it's
because the playoff pictures more firmly focused and you can
kind of like put the puzzle pieces together more.
But I haven't been, like, tacking on as many Niners.
Have you been still like kind of doubling, tripling down with the
fringe Niners? We talked about this on the DK
stream. We just did before ship chasing
for leg up. But no, I haven't.
I'm in the same boat as you, Pat or Pete.
I haven't been doing the like Eli Mitchell or Juan Jennings as
much because often times you can play it through their Super Bowl
opponent so much better. It's like what's the probability
that Juwan Jennings scores greater than 0 in the Super
Bowl? Well, it's less than like any of
these other dart throws on the other side of their Super Bowl
opponent, right? And often times if you're
playing it through a non, if you're not playing it through
49ers, Ravens and it's like and I get a very small boost to my
round one advance rate, then because I'm getting, say it's
49ers Chiefs, it's like OK, who's got a better probability
of scoring any points, Juwan Jennings or the myriad Chiefs
punt wide receivers that you can do.
It's like they're all the same thing.
So let me get the guy who's going to help me advance like
5.1% extra in round one. Just like trying to get those
micro edges where I can. Yeah, that's been my, the exact
same boat I've been in with that.
Pat, Gretch, Draco, any any other kind of thoughts you guys
have had on this and then we'll we'll definitely get in and rip
a couple here. No, I'm kind of excited to get
back in the the Underdog St. zone and I've been as I
mentioned doing mostly DraftKings.
We launched A DraftKings tool on legendary upside in addition to
the Underdog 1. So kind of testing that out and
you know that's that's got tight end in a couple different ways
to think through it but I haven't really been drafting on
underdog the last like 3 days. So everything's Zach's saying
about found the the landscape of of being able to get like CMC
Purdy again occasionally. I was like, I need to go for an
underdog. That's that's exciting.
Grouch, what about you? I know you.
Did you just repod with with Sean about this or were you guys
podding about FFPC? We did FFPCI.
I can't obviously do those here. I did a couple while I was
travelling, but it was hard during the travelling to get a
bunch in. Not, yeah, I don't, I don't have
anything nearly as advanced as what you guys are saying.
What? Were you gonna say Draco?
This is my yeah, this is my first year during the underdog
playoff contest and and and the biggest thing that's been
notable to me, the biggest thing that I, I I've, the biggest
lesson I've had to learn is that even more so than in normal and
best ball, you really need to think of when you take a player
who do they exclude you from and making sure that you leave the
maximum amount of options open and optionality, I guess.
No, you're you're 100% right because like sacrilegious.
I take so many Niners and you know I go into every draft being
like this is the one where I finally commit to the Jordan
love build and then I like double that DeVos save like
Brandon you're like well throw that out the window.
That's like every time like what are these days I'll actually get
forgot to have Packers on my team.
We it's funny because the and like you know I've done a
million of the. Oh, I haven't.
I mean Zach's literally done a million.
I've probably done like 200 and I'm still like, oh man, I could
take Tyreek here. And then you're like, no, dude,
you took a cheat. You can't take Tyreek.
But it is this thing of like that that little part of your
brain that's like, oh, it's pretty cheap for Tyreek.
Like, you can't turn it off. Which is good because that's
kind of who we're battling. We're battling people who who
are doing a worse job of turning that off than than we are.
That's got to be one of the biggest pain points in the rooms
right now is like they both fit great for you Miami and KC and
and they both slide. It's like, Oh my God, Mahomes is
on the board with all three of the Chiefs and Tyriq's here.
It's like pick 20, not. None of this should be here and
you have to pick one. And that's, that's the pain
point. And it's also so I mean these
these rooms too. I mean everyone see that people
complain on Twitter, whatever. I I think it's more funny but
it's like I still give people the benefit of the doubt.
I don't have the sacrilegious, you know, dossier on everyone
where I'm like, oh, they they have the chiefs.
I can push this dolphin around the turn and then Nope, every
time it's it's still, it's like these rooms will never cease to
amaze you like they will. Every time you think like this
is going to be normal someone pulls a rabbit out of their hat.
It's it's phenomenal. I believe it.
Really. I thought it.
I've like. Fired some up.
Yeah, let's. Do it.
It is nice because there's there's times and last night we
we drafted a really nice one where it's like there's times
where every someone's just wiping people out, but it's not
you and you're just like that was a.
Beautiful what? A beautiful afternoon.
So, you know, I've, I've had some of these starts where
you're just like, Oh my God, like they're gonna, they're not
gonna leave me this dude too. And then they do.
And that's only possible by people drafting extremely badly.
Like when everyone stays in their lane.
You can. You can assemble a nice team
regularly, but the only time you make super teams is when someone
else came barreling in from three lanes over and destroyed
someone else's team. And sometimes you can tell too.
Like in in the way the first like 8 picks go, you're like, Oh
my God, wait, these guys look like they were being rational.
This guy is clearly not. He just double tap Purdy Lamar,
you know or whatever and you're like wait, that's going to make
this guy do this? Which means this happens, which
means you're like. Oh, oh shit.
That's going to fall to me like and and then it does and you are
the only one left standing in a room full of chaos.
Those are probably my favorite. That's like, that's why we play
the game. We play the game to watch
everyone else crash and burn around you and you're the last
man standing. Those are great, Yeah.
You can grab 900 to have four of those where you feel like the
king. I I'm, I'm currently ripping one
and I took Zay Flowers in the third round and a guy with Lamar
and Tyreek just went full tilt and took Mark Andrews. 3rd that
that is full tell. I saw someone take Justice Hill
over Zay Flowers in one of my rooms earlier today.
I was like, hoping Zay flowers would fall and it was like my
brain cell like the Baltimore. For a split second I was like oh
that's I was like wait, oh that was Justice Hill you selected?
Yeah. Gauntlet 2 here, two of 6/1 of
6/1 of five pretty big final 250 seat final here.
But the advance rate or the pods are pretty small.
Classic spot here at the Five right now where you're looking
at Debo, Purdy and Iuke. I normally click Debo here, but
I'm open to to ideas. Yeah, I I pretty much always do
Debo here and you're just praying that same comes back and
if he doesn't, it's whatever. Yeah.
So the question if they do go Brock IUK, which is definitely
something that happens a decent bit, have you guys been going
kittle or pivoting to like an AFC digs or Tyreek?
I wouldn't ever really do digs. And I also hear because Allen's
gone and I and then you're like really in a world of hurt
because you're not playing it for Bill's 49ers Super Bowl.
And you also, it's like, is digs really that great a fantasy
projecting player right now, You know, oh, that's a gift.
Yeah, so the turn goes Aman, Raw and Hill.
I've actually been seeing this combo a decent amount.
But yeah, do you, Do you ever do?
I feel like I get Ayuk and Debo naturally, that I just always
take Purdy when I get it. Here.
Yeah, yeah. You take Purdy here because it
opens you up to letting something wonky happen.
You're praying you're in a room of people that are scared of the
bye. But you know, we've got Nez and
Crash Rich here at the 1-2 turn, so it's very unlikely we get our
3rd coveted 49er back. And yeah, the Lamar guy should
pretty much always take IU Kir as well, in my opinion.
So you know, it's unlikely that we get Kittle back.
But yeah, you you have to take Purdy to open yourself up to the
possibility of getting this back 'cause it has.
I've gotten a few of these, you know, but it doesn't happen
often. Yeah, Crash Rich goes CMC,
Kittle, Mahomes, Nesgos. Alan James Cook after Diggs went
right before him and now you know this is this is a spot
where we can go what a decent amount of directions like you
can do the KC stuff. What do you what do you like to
do here normally? If flowers made it, I'd just do
flowers and then I'm almost done with my.
Super Bowl roster Flowers didn't make it.
Wow. So.
Now you're now you're basically done with your Super Bowl
roster, right? Like you only need two more
pieces and one of them's a running back.
So you know that you're taking one of Gus Edwards or Justice
Hill. And then your worst case
scenario is you get forced into an Eli Mitchell build.
And so from here it becomes really easy to plan the draft
out. And for me, I'm like with My
Portfolio where it is like 9 times out of 10 going to finish
this with like a Tampa Bay in Houston and then have those as
my quarterback options here. It's like Tony Pollard is just
such a giga smash because that's your highest probability
opponent of San Francisco in the conference championship.
You need running back points round one.
So yeah, I feel like Tony Pollard is a pretty easy click
here unless you're wanting to play it through Detroit.
But when you play it through Pollard, you get the better pass
catcher stack option of having Cooks available as well.
If he comes back to you where if you play it through Gibbs you're
like pretty stuck going to Jamison Williamson cause LaPorte
is still dicey to play. Yup.
So we start Purdy Zay Debo here. Grab Tony Pollard.
Yeah, the team. On the amount of shit you just
said, that's a 900 draft like breakdown there.
That was like such a fucking 900 draft.
Breakdown. So what I'm understanding you
said was that okay, so we've almost finished our Super Bowl
team and so right now we just need to pick players that were
avoiding round one and round two matchups.
Yep, and and we're allowed because we're going to have five
players on by here. We're allowed to break all the
rules, you know, ideally we don't want to have people that
play in round one and then it. It's an order of operations
thing though, right? It's like, preferably, no one
plays in round two, but if we've got people that are going to
play in round two, that's still preferred to people playing in
round one, right? So you're just kind of like
going through that. And then of course you're
balancing like the fantasy projection that you can get from
that player to help you advance here.
And so that's why Pollard is so, so sweet here.
It's like Pollard will project fine.
They're they're big favorites at home.
You know he he should do just fine for you.
Then you can get Cooks who will also project fine and still be a
consistent bet and be a really strong piece in round two and
round three for you because it's now you're setting up a 49ers
Cowboys conference championship. Cooks goes here.
But that's fine. We've got all the outs in the
world because we've got Tampa Bay and Houston still available
and we don't even. This is the beautiful part.
We don't need to take Gus Edwards here.
We're taking one of Gus Edwards or Hill.
Then we're taking one of likely OBJ, Andrews, Bateman and
Aguilar, right. So like we're we're in such a
safe spot now that you you actually start reaching, so you
go all the way down and you secure whoever you care more
about between Evans or Collins. There's only a No more Dallas
potential Super Bowl running. What about Ferguson?
Fine. But I I like Collins and Evans
to project for better than Ferguson.
Right, get through round. One Who do you guys want,
Collins or Evans? Collins, personal.
Yeah, you're gonna get both here, by the way, 'cause that's
what we're doing on the next one.
But yeah, this. Is why you're concerned, 'cause
you don't have you only have five players.
In We gotta hit, We gotta Hit the The nuts, Ish the nuts
adjacent. You know it's it is 2A6.
So it's like that's that's why it's like we don't even need to
get that crazy. It's like shoot Mike Evans, Nico
Collins, Tony Pollard plus one and a quarterback stacked with
one of those pass catchers is like that's pretty live to
advance you know like and and again it's 33% base advance
rate. My goal is can I get myself to
20% advance rate with this with A5 by it's really hard.
You're probably looking at like between 10, you know, 10%, maybe
15 if you got some really good projected players.
But here Gus is still on the board, so you get Evans.
You cue both of the cue both the Baltimore running backs here.
And then you got to get your you got to remember your streamer
rules. You never cue anyone up.
You don't put that billboard up. You know Nez Nez is tilting that
he lost digs and he's ready to blow up some stacks right now.
There it goes, Gus. But yeah, well.
There are only 222 running backs we can have in the Super Bowl,
right? Yes, yeah, it's we.
We must have those. For but like I guess I would ask
sacrilegious would you like I I I do prefer Evans to to Chris
Godwin but just knowing that you feel pretty naked without
justice or Gus like would you ever just lock that up and just
see if Evans comes back and knowing that you will have the
Godwin fall back. Yeah, I definitely do.
But at this point, it's like both of them are on the board,
so I have cover for it. Usually when I'm drafting, I'm
like looking at is there anyone number one, are there illogical
drafters in here, you know, that are picking between me and my
next pick #2 for the logical drafters?
Is there someone that would want to build out Ravens?
And then are there two people that would want to build out
Ravens? Because most people building out
Ravens aren't going to be in a spot where both Gus and Justice
make sense. This guy's surely going to do it
here though. I always waited famous last
words. Here.
Oh, it's it's happening. He should take likely, yeah.
Yeah. And then I haven't, I haven't
been paying attention to Eric 54.
He does have. Oh no.
It's Joker.
And he he's been waiting until round seven.
Just do Odell for kicks. But you you need to lock up
Odell here. He's making a sweat.
Guard don't. Do that now, you jam justice in.
We thank our lucky stars. But yeah, these are that's like
a spot Pete will always be willing to reach on a guy,
'cause it's like the linchpin of your bill.
That's like the probability Justice Hill scores any points
in the Super Bowl versus the probability Eli Mitchell or Kyle
Youscheck. You know, it's like, oh God, I
would much rather be playing on the Justice Hill side of that,
so. Yeah.
So we are going to have what one more we're going to take a
quarterback, which we have the optionality for either, and then
it's Odell. We windmill Odell here because
we were like winning this. If if this gets to the Finals
and it's 49ers, Ravens, we win. You know, the only the only
thing that we're then up against is headless CMC teams that can
beat us. So CMC teams without a
quarterback and the nuts like CMC that got AIUK plus to you
know Gus Edwards and another good player or you're looking at
a Lamar team that of course doesn't have CMC probably can't
have Devo. So you're you've got clean paths
to win in all those and we have pretty high projected players
with them and a lot of people have like those ancillary
Baltimore pieces at the end. So we're in a really good spot
here and and like there's no real way for people to box us
out of a a piece that still is within structure for us.
That would be like the last good projected piece, and we've got
multiple quarterback outs and they're not desirable
quarterbacks typically for people.
How? How granular are you looking at
your like portfolio from a combo standpoint?
Like I assume you've drafted a similar version of this team
many times. Are you trying to be like, all
right this time I want to get like Gus and likely instead of
you know Justice and Odell are are you trying to to do that?
No, it'll happen naturally over the course of the volume that
I'm getting in. The rooms are so random.
And also you've got the pod variants of like, I I wouldn't
care if I had. If you told me I had fifty teams
that were literal, like, you know, 10 player copies on 50
teams. If they were a good team, like,
cool, yeah, give me 50 of them. Cause a lot of them are gonna
die in the pots. You just want to feel what you
can get. Through and I I play a way
higher risk style than I think a lot of people are comfortable
playing like I'm I'm good, you know even if I get down to like
a 15% global advance rate on all my two of six stuff, like I have
a lot of confidence that I've built well enough that I'm still
wildly positive expected value. So.
Stroud for you guys. Yeah, yeah.
Yep. Yep.
All right, so this team, yeah, comes together really nicely.
We. Got one more player, we.
Got one more pick, right? Oh yeah, who?
Now it's down one. Receiver and now it's dealer's
choice, it's you can either go running back you can go like
Devon Singletary, you can go you can get Dalton Schultz, you can
go Chris Godwin. So yeah, that's why that's why
this fits so so nicely, right? Cause none of these are bad
projecting players either. Right, because we already have
our Super Bowl 5 and we have one.
Now we just need our final. First round five.
I think it would be Godwin who projects the best here.
I think I bet you're has single. Terry as the, as the.
Highest and I I do a good amount Terry.
Yeah. But I've I've also hammered some
Schultz yeah. But anyway, this is I got a gang
of teams that are like this. Exactly.
Basically, yeah. This is a cool team.
I I I hope so. Yeah, so for the for the audio
listeners here, Brock Purdy and CJ Stroud at quarterback, Tony
Pauler, Justice Hill, Devin Singletary at running back, Debo
Zay, Nico Evans, Odell at wide receiver.
So obviously round one no points from Brock, Justice, Debo, Zay,
Odell and on the flip side we will need to get scores from
Stroud, Pollard, Singletary, Nico, Evans.
That's a strong five. If you're going to just have 5
project, well yeah. It's like we got, we got our
10%, you know we got at least our 10% equity here to advance
out of round one. Yeah, yeah.
And this, that's the thing too, right?
Then you can start going and looking at.
You know the other teams like normally, right?
The Lamar team also oops, isn't going to.
Project Super Well, but. This guy didn't really load up
on a ton of bye weeks, so his advance rate will probably be
slightly better than expected relative to most Lamar teams.
But I do think you want to think about like what are you able to
get through like you almost don't even to some extent you
don't want to like think about round one and how painful that's
going to be. Let's think about we are
unwrapping our our presence in round two.
Oh, what did I get through? Oh, look at this guy.
And it's like full Ravens, 49ers stuff.
It's going to be so much more powerful than the people who
just go like Lamar Zay and then, like, don't really build it out,
'cause they're worried about not advancing like they do have a
better chance of getting through.
But then when they when they go in and unwrap that team, it's
like, ah shit, 'cause you still have a long way to go.
Because the the thesis too. Because you might be like, well,
you'll you'll OK, you'll have the bare minimum 5 for a
starting line up. But it's like we'll be what did
you look at the data Zach? Was there any teams that advance
with six Spies from round one like I?
Didn't look at that. The the thing that I was looking
at to like kind of give me a sense of how easy or hard it is
to advance out of round one is there were about 5% of teams
that could have advanced with a zero at quarterback.
You can take a stone zero at QB. So I I kind of use that as like
my and that was with a one out of six, right?
So 5% is kind of like your minimum that you could possibly
advance. Like your advance rate should
never really be lower than 5% provided you're not trolling.
You know like if you if you drafted like Rico Dowdall, Jalen
Tolbert and you know Michael Gallup as three of your five
only active players like OK yeah, you can get under 5%.
But but if you're if you're playing this for real like
you're you're probably floor is like 5% and since this is 2 of
6. I'd say it's probably not
totally linear. You're not going to go from 5%
to 10%. You're probably like right in
between there. So maybe like your bare minimum
worst case scenario that you can advance when you're sitting at a
full 5 lineup, it's like 8% maybe in a room.
And that's kind of what I've I've estimated at.
And yeah I think that for even where I played pretty aggressive
where I'm not getting a 5 by team but if I've got four on buy
or three on buy like those are the ones where I'm like I can
pretty easily get up to 20% advance rate on those suckers.
And then of course I've got my builds where it's like I didn't
end up with bye wee teams here I I ended up with you know like a
Dallas and Buffalo Super Bowl and this is a powerhouse to
advance and that's I'm I'm going to be like if not you know 33%
like I might even be a little better than 33.
So like globally across the portfolio, I think if you're
playing the game correctly, you probably should be shooting for
like a 20% first round advance rate and you can ratchet that
down if you play super duper aggressive but.
Yep. Yeah.
And so and you mentioned the stuff about throwing out the
rules. So like obviously here you know
if Houston wins then they would run into Baltimore assuming
Miami didn't win. But in that you're just like I I
do not care because I am trying to get this 5 bye week team that
no one else is is going to have. Yeah, exactly.
And and so when that happens, we still get.
So Houston wins in the first round.
Right now they're in the second round.
Now this is Gauntlet too. So they're going to be much
higher owned in this, their draft.
You know, Nico Collins is drafted almost every single
draft. Devin Singletary, their drafts
or he doesn't get drafted and Stroud their drafts, he doesn't
get drafted. But you go to round two, you're
going to see other Houston teams, but you do get that
second game out of them. And then you're into round three
where all of a sudden it's a lot harder if you're correct and San
Francisco and Baltimore are still alive.
It's so, so, so much harder for people to have, you know, a full
roster of 10 players at that point.
I would say almost impossible. And so then you're sitting there
with, you know, say that you got, you know, just the it's
just it's Dallas, San Francisco and Baltimore there.
Well, shoot, OK, We got 6 live right.
And that's going to be better than a lot of our opponents
where we've got got a good number of people just blocked
out right there, where they're dead to advance to us.
And because it's a party team, if Houston somehow beat
Baltimore, you could still play San Fran.
Houston, right? Yeah, yeah.
And that's, you know, that's like a 2% outcome, you know, but
it's like getting. That's why in the in the article
it's like, yeah, you do prefer to have your second quarterback
on the opposite side of your first quarterback when you're
doing bye week stuff. But again, it's.
That's not the driving thing. Valerie would be the driving
thing. Yeah, I wrote the article
initially just to try and get people to like, all right,
everybody, let's draft like some live teams and follow the basic
rules. But like, I feel like people
have picked up on it really fast.
Like I've noticed lots of lots of people in rooms like drafting
pretty good now. And so I feel like it's now.
Now that we're we're collectively there as a
community, we kind of get like the basics of the game, like.
Now it's starting to understand like where you deviate from
those rules and where you break them and where you make
decisions that would be different than the conventional,
like rules of thumb that I've given.
And that's like the next level of how you get to be really
good. And that's I bet you just with
how fast. To me it seems like the game
advanced from last year to this year.
I bet you next year is all about that.
That's where the edges are. You're going to end up with a
lot of these cookie cutter people following four teams that
they're predicting into the conference championship type of
builds. And then it comes down to like,
OK, now you need to figure out we we talk about like, reaching
into the jar of only the jar of plus EV teams over here, like
follow the rules. They're all gonna probably be
plus EV. And then over here there's a jar
where there's a bunch of shit in it.
But there's also some pretty nice teams You don't really want
to reach your hand into this one.
Next season's going to be about you got to be willing to wade
into the the stinky jar. But you know it.
It's actually. It's interesting because the
better the overall field is drafting, the more that those
types of builds become interesting.
Because you're now you're saying like I need Mike Evans on this
team because I'm trying to advance these 49ers and Ravens.
Well, Mike Evans is more likely to be there when everyone's kind
of staying in their own lane and building out these teams where
they've got a coherent conference championship game.
You know he's not he's he's more of an an advance rate round one
type of guy. There are scenarios where it
makes sense to grab him as your third NFC team, you know when
you're trying to advance these mega bye week teams.
So I think it actually that cause the game develops then
those opportunities will become a little bit more appealing
even. The other thing is that if the
49ers and the Ravens are the Super Bowl this year, that's two
years in a row that we're going to have had one seed, one seed,
and then that will dominate. The narrative next year will
become all about how do I get the two one seeds in 'cause
obviously that's what happens now in the NFL play offs, and
that's the only thing that can happen.
Let me ask you one more question.
Sacrilegious. Would you say we did Nico and
then say you did Jayden Reed, Aaron Jones and Jordan Love
instead of Evan Stroud? Singletary is the only
difference for you in that Just obviously that the odds for the
Texan stuff to hit or or win a game is greater than the
Packers, but structurally you would be OK with that.
No 'cause we also have Pollard, and so that's a little painful.
There bad. Example but but but yeah I get
what you're saying and like yeah if if instead we cause like we
could technically have done my like there's rooms where you
could do a Miami thing here you know and so yeah like we
technically could do Miami in in a room where that fell But yeah
for for me I just I really like the spot too like this is a
small player take thing but for these round one advance type
ones now I'm getting more into my player takes hat and like how
is this game actually gonna go and like I could I could see
this being a pretty high scoring game So I'm like I'm really
happy to have pieces in it And again like I mentioned this for
my my own specific portfolio I got so much brown stuff when
they were free shadows and Daniel Raz for just pounding.
The table on. Joe Flacco and so now it's like,
God, I feel like I can put myself in a really, really
strong position because I've got a lot of these two bye week
teams with Browns to get them through and now it's like, but
what if that doesn't work out? Let me try 2 bye week teams with
the Texans to get them through. And so that's and I to kind of
dovetail that as well with like the way that I've, I've talked
about like how you play these lower probability teams to make
the playoffs or like the fringe teams.
And like, I wasn't really taking Tampa Bay or Houston or, you
know, Indy or the Packers or the Steelers or any of these teams
that were like, they could make it or they they might not.
Is because like, sure, if you took some of them during the
first gauntlet, like, yes, you're unique in the fact that
those don't exist a bunch, but the benefit of the uniqueness
doesn't matter at all in round one, really, 'cause you're the
only one with the copy of those players.
And then you're losing the effectiveness of that uniqueness
as you go into the deeper rounds because those teams are lower
probability, even get there. So it's like sick you've got
some Packers back in the first gauntlet when no one even
thought they were making the playoffs.
It's going to be really cool when they get knocked out in the
first round and help you advance as you're super unique bro.
But but now nothing happened. Nothing bad happened to like I
didn't have a ton of Houston's. I didn't have a ton of Tampa
Bay. Nothing bad happened.
I just loaded up on the best Houston, Tampa Bay Get Me Out of
round one build you possibly could build right.
Nothing bad happened. Just load up once those teams
are in. And that's why I I think this is
like of course all best ball is a volume game but like playoff
best ball where the edges are so clear and defined and then like
the way that being contrarian is rewarded differently in this
than it is in lots of other formats.
It's like if you just understand how you get paid off for
different things that are contrarian and understand you do
the the contrarian things that pay you a lot early when you're
right, and then you you hold back on the contrarian things
that don't reward you disproportionately.
I I think that's that's the secret.
Well said. Well, I very much appreciated
getting to hear all of your thoughts on this contest on
legendary upside. Do you guys want to do one more
to close this down? Try try another build?
You guys got time. All right, let's do one more
here. And oops, no sorry meant in
four. We'll see if we can get a
different slot for a little different build here.
Nope. Do you?
Have you done when you meant? I assume your answer this
question is the same thing, like there's enough randomness or
whatever. Have you done any kind of
reaching to try to get stacks or pairings that you don't think
are going to be as frequented? Only when the room presents
itself in a way where that's like the best way to play it
too, in that specific room, if that makes sense.
So like when you see people doing weird stuff like I talked
about, like, you can kind of tell like, oh, this happens,
these are logical drafters, They'll take this, this, then
this, which leaves this open. So if you like I've seen
sometimes where and there's nothing I can really do to stop
it other than Nuka team myself where it's like I am about to
give Brock Purdy to the one hole with CMC and it's like I saw it
coming saw it coming from a mile away when that guy double tapped
Aman raw Tyriq you know like I knew we're knew we're screwed
then as a as a room we're gonna build a monster out of the one
hole. So yeah, like when you that's
not an example of where you'd reach, but like when you see
stuff like that where there's an opportunity to get something
like that where you're not sacrificing anything, then yeah,
I'd consider it. Yep, Who knows?
Maybe one of these guys will grab Debo and we can mix up the
build. Nez, you want to do us a solid
and let us build a different team?
No Nez, is Josh Allen pilled. He's.
Not, I mean, Nez doesn't want to pick against the Steelers,
right, You know? That's right.
Just take Devo nez. Come on this.
Jeez, Nez is multi tailored. Nez is going to auto.
Josh Allen, sweetheart. Let's fill the Josh Allen team.
This is how I get back in Liam's good graces.
He bought the same lump as him. You dropped the same team.
Alex is looking for redemption after our was.
It was that last night, guys, that we did the Big Ben draft,
where he where Liam cooked him on all of his his Bill stuff.
Yeah. So do you do you just take digs
here? Is that what you do or?
Do you got a You got a choice. You can do digs, or you can fade
digs and go kittle and play it for that's the only way you're
playing San Francisco Buffalo is That's why it's a consideration,
'cause you're otherwise not playing San Francisco Buffalo.
Let's just get in like a different, different realm fully
than where we were last time and and do the digs there is like
I've noticed too. I was actually talking about
this with Pat like and I'm sure you've noticed this a million
times where like there's the pro con of like trying to push a
player like squeeze in the extra guy like Kittle and then who
knows, maybe the room gives you digs.
Obviously that's very rare versus when you get like
squatters rights like because you're now taking off the table
for someone at the turn like a crutches to do a digs cook
double tap where it's like less attractive where I think your
ability to get all three like ratchets up in a in a very big
way. 100%, yeah. That's really well said.
And I I definitely think about stuff like that.
Especially like when I'm when I don't have a quarterback and
there's quarterbacks still on the board.
Like I can't remember if this was this streamer if if this is
the one we were doing over on blackout before.
But we talked about like trying to push them Mahomes around.
But there is a a team that had two 49ers pass catchers, whereas
like they'll they'll always take Mahomes there with whatever
Chief, we leave them if we don't take Mahomes and then pray for
the Chiefs to come back, so yeah.
Krudges does snag cook at the at the 2 three turns, so we'll be
punting bills here for a little bit.
What do you guys like here? It's it's kind of gross.
You're just like picking if you you can't really take KC because
KC and Buffalo meet each other round too.
So you're like, I either take Miami or I go down to Detroit.
Yep. Some guys have AI, don't think
you start them. What's up?
You didn't know Gibbs is not. You didn't start anymore.
No, I know, trust me, I I do not know the last.
Yeah, I think logically I gravitate there.
And then the, I guess the question is like how far is
Tyriq sliding right now? Because Gibbs does feel like I
always like my, my, my Lion stuff much better.
Obviously if you have a Monroe or Gibbs to start it off, it's
just a Monroe's so pricey. So Gibbs is normally like, all
right, this is my last call to feel like good about Detroit
stuff. Could you have reached for into
the Philly stuff and and played for like A.J.
Brown to be held up? I don't think you reach it.
I think you wait. You try to let the Philly stuff
keep falling, because it will. You can get A.J.
Brown in like the sixth round sometimes.
What about Tyreke here? I was going to say, do you want
to just do? Tyreke Yeah, you can you can do
Tyreke here. Yeah.
Tyreke here is is totally fine the other way that you would
have played it. But yeah do do Tyreke.
The other way that you play it, which I'll usually do, is if if
Kyron's still on the board, you just take Kyron where he took
Gibbs, and then you have two receivers open and a lot of
times people won't even infringe on them.
It's like really nice advance rate pieces.
And you know, you're already not playing San Francisco to make
the Super Bowl. So it's like, why did San
Francisco not make the Super Bowl?
Oh, 'cause the Ram's upset. That's kind of the, yeah, just
like we talked about, thinking through the brackets, you know?
And in the other formats, it's like, well, why isn't San
Francisco in the Super Bowl? And it's like, well, the coolest
way is because the Rams go and then I'm rolling with these
fantasy powerhouse pieces and that's why I'm winning all the
money because no one can stop my full bills and RAM stack.
Like, that's just overwhelming. Yeah.
And Duke also pointing out that we do finally have a build where
a sacrilegious would say the Packers could be on the menu
here. The other thing.
We talked about narratives earlier, and maybe that was on
the other stream, but what a better story than McVeigh
beating Shanahan, yeah? Wow.
Well, and it's very, that's why I think it's very doable because
they know each other very, very well.
I mean, I think that guy's got to be closer than it should be,
regardless. So Nez does give one back here.
He doesn't let us do the A.J. Brown thing.
Do we just grab a Chan and be done?
Yeah, 'cause you really only want one more Miami piece, and
you definitely don't want Waddle, in my opinion here,
'cause it's like, what's he really doing for us?
So yeah, you can take a Chan. And then from this point, we're
like, we don't really feel great about pushing Kincaid around
anymore. And so I think that we just fall
in the Kincaid grenade here. Your other option from this spot
is if you're worried about losing Mike Evans, you go into
Evans already, because if you don't have Eagles, right, we
didn't take Eagles at a big falling value.
It's because they lost to Mike Evans 202 game.
Yep. Does this Does this build become
preloaded with Leonard Fournette for you at this spot?
Yeah, yeah, when you when you don't have a a Bills running
back. I love tacking on Lenny.
I'll do a lot of Bills 2 running back builds with two running
backs on the Bills where I end up with Cook and Lenny.
And then, like, if I had more Bills teams, I'd sprinkle in a
tiny bit of Ty Johnson and then like even less Latavius Murray,
'cause it's so ambiguous there. But yeah, I definitely I like
Lenny a lot. I also I you know, would any of
us be surprised if this first week say that the game's still
in Buffalo with the 30 mile an hour sustained winds?
You know, it's cold as shit? Like, are you surprised if they
just ride Lenny's fresh, thick legs all the way to a victory
there? Like it doesn't seem that crazy.
God, I just I'm I'm having a. Hard.
Time with. The words fresh.
And. Lenny.
Let me get sacked back for earlier.
Yuck. Evans did get sniped there.
This is the. By Super Bowl week, it could be
someone like Ty Johnson over money, too.
Guys, yeah. It could be.
I'm gonna get I'm gonna get you on the the Jaden Reed Aaron
Jones I. Mean I mean you're you're we're
dangerously close to it here. What I'll what I'll say from
this spot is you could also go into Dallas Goddard and just
play it as one. What about Devante?
We have Devante. I'm so my vibes on Devante are
so poor. But it might.
I might be. It should be.
The opposite the the vibes on Devante are good right now.
AJ is the sketch one. I'm just high ankle sprain, like
2 weeks removed. Seems so spooky to me.
But he's yeah, do what? Let's let's do the devante
gotter. Yeah, and that that feet feels
totally fine. We're gonna get our third
running back through Fournette anyway, and then we'll just
hammer Shakur. Fournette the the one.
Honestly, the piece that I like want to lose the least in Bill's
drafts is Khalil Shakur. I think by the end of the
playoffs, there's a non zero chance he's the best pass
catcher on the team. Like, I know that might be a
little hot, but I thought he was good coming into this season.
Then they didn't use him because they were like, you know, it
would be really cool. What if you put a slower guy who
runs worse routes with worse hands out here?
That'd be sick. Let's put a lot of Dalton
Kincaid on the field and now they're like, wait a minute,
this Khalil Shakur guy could play.
So I don't know. I'm I'm kind of in on the Khalil
Shakur rising if the bills you know make a deep run like you
got more room for Khalil Shakur to to have a big breakout game
and then maybe you know make it so the genie can't go back in
the bottle. Yeah, the Gabe injury stuff is
bad too, right? Yeah, it's PCL.
Like I I you know they say that he he could be back at some time
during the playoffs but like dude PCL springs like you can
miss some some time. Like that.
That does push you towards Shakur as well.
A lot for sure, yeah. Nez is cursing us for taking.
He went swift there. He had taken A.J.
Brown and Swift and then we went Eagles, Eagles, Sorry, this.
Oh no nez, this is how I repaid you after.
She did us the deal. Oh nez, I'm sorry.
We didn't let him stop piddle in return, though.
A.J. Brown hurts Swift.
And then we took Devonte. Got it.
Wow. That was brutal.
This is This is Zach Religious is hyping up Khalil Shakur so
much that crutches can't even tack on to his James Cook build
because Alex takes him as a one off.
The. One off.
Does it even make sense here? It's no he.
Just hyped him up as the fucking next coming of Jerry Rice and
that was like, sounds good. How does How Yeah, I guess.
It was just a bit it's Trent Cherfield season anyway.
Yeah, it makes sense. If the if the Chiefs win, Alex
is fine. Wanted Buffalo.
I wanted Buffalo. Why the?
Fuck. Fuck us, right?
So, so, Lenny's one pick here. What's the What's the other one?
Oh, your next one's Dawson Knox. Easy peasy.
Just jam it in. The Would you consider a a
Detroit guy for a second? Detroit.
Yeah, I'd, I'd dabble with a I'd probably prefer Jamison
Williams, kind of in the same vein as Khalil Shakur.
Like I I said this earlier this season that I think it wouldn't
be that outlandish to say Jamison Williams is the best
receiver on his team next season.
Not to take anything away from Alman Raw.
I think Alman Raw is absolute elite Chad dominating slot or?
City with this race, it's gonna be like, man, wonderful.
Laporta's already practicing, and isn't it Like Detroit has a
possible Super Bowl team like Laporta?
Yeah, you you could do Laporta to I've, yeah.
They're both Laporta's. It's got a.
Bone bruise. Dude, the bone bruise is so I
don't know if if any of you have ever had a a severe bone bruise.
He's not walk like if he does play on Sunday, he's not walking
the entire next. Week, but there's not a single
by team on this. Like you don't, really.
No. Yeah, we don't.
It's you're right. It's not round one firepower we
need. I just.
I like JMO. I'm I'm high on JMO.
He just said he's gonna be the best wide receiver on the Lions
next year, high on JMO. Yeah, I mean this Now this is
like the opposite of. That religious player takes are
are the the all the the game theory stuff is the smartest
stuff I've ever heard and then we start talking about Khalil
here and he's comparing him to like the.
That's why I'm a flat exposure bro.
In season long, that's all. I can't trust myself.
The, yeah, I, I think the the Laporta stuff is, I don't know,
pretty optimistic on the lion's end right now.
Yeah, I was just thinking more like conference championship and
and Super Bowl, yeah. Right.
Yeah. And I think if we would have
'cause we did, what did we 'cause?
We were playing the Ravens, was it Cowboys Super Bowl on our big
one last night? And we did Mark Andrews there as
our final Super Bowl piece, which in this lineup we weren't
necessarily playing. Detroit to the Super Bowl.
We were playing. I guess we we were leaving it
open. We were playing.
Eagles. Either Philly or Detroit.
Yeah, yeah. Well, that was fun.
I like, I told myself I was going to, like, flip the
calendar over and exclusively be doing BRS by today.
And then I keep looking at that little gauntlet and I'm like,
yeah, just another. Just one more.
And next thing you know, it's 10 more.
You just keep going. Just RIP.
It on real quick. Yeah, we're we're gonna take it
easy on on Alex here. Did did he grab an extra?
I say I'm gonna take it easy and then I'm gonna look, did he end
up? Grabbing.
Well, there's a whole thing in the chat of of the they said he
had Cooper and he said I don't have Cooper And then I said, oh
wait, I do. So I think.
Oh, no, it's OK. It's OK.
I. I think he's still, by the way,
I do think in Alex's defense, he's fine.
He's just, he needs a chief stub for it to work, you know?
Yeah. I don't.
I don't think he had three AFC. He only had two AFC, so.
He and he ended up going Sherfield.
He committed to the bit. OK, he committed.
To the bit, yeah. Gabe's out.
Makes sense. Alex, you're live.
You got the best wide receiver on the Bills and the second best
wide receiver. All right guys.
So we we we covered a lot of ground tonight.
NFCFFPC underdog. We got our final show tomorrow
night with Dink and Leone 8:15. I will, I haven't been drinking
all week. I'm ready to have a couple
cocktails tomorrow to cap off the week.
Anything else here, Pat, you mentioned you guys got the
DraftKings tool is launched. Anything.
Else you know about Yeah, no, that's the big thing.
Ownership projections you can find on legendary upside.
Now you can also they're in the ship chasing Discord, legendary
upside Discord, but they're also just on the legendary upside
site for for members there. But yeah, this DraftKings tool
is pretty sweet I think just getting your head around tight
ends and the importance of filling out like in in some of
the underdog stuff. I think you can only have like 4
live players in round one and like have a shot, but you're
probably pretty dead in on Underdog or on DraftKings where
it's one of six advance. So you also have two extra
rounds over there, so you have a little bit more latitude to play
with in a sense. So I've had a lot of fun
drafting with the tool over there.
I definitely recommend people check it out.
Awesome, Draco. Anything people should be
looking out for Stat chasing, obviously in the books for the
year. Anything else you want to point
people toward? Nothing right now.
I know SAC and I, we did talk about maybe doing a couple of
offseason shows, but I guess more to come on that.
Awesome. Sacrilegious.
Anything you'd like to do here? Are you are you going to do any
more content for leg up? Any Discord stream, stuff like
that? I don't know if I'll have time
to fit in we we might have time to fit an impromptu Discord
stream in. I got a pretty busy week here
between other obligations and the volume I'm trying to get in.
But I'll. I'll see if I can get some of
that down on stream in the Discord.
And then I'm I'm so close to getting into offseason mode
where I get to start doing some of the deeper dive projects.
So I'm going to have to talk to Pat behind the scenes about
we've got a few ideas of of articles and and bigger actually
had. An idea I wanted to to get your
thoughts on. Cool.
We'll yeah, we'll we'll chop it up.
So I I'm, I'm thinking I I wanna get like 1-1 real big piece out
for the summer and then I'll, I'll sprinkle in some other
stuff too. Nice gretch.
I I got your pod downloaded with Sean to check out sometime
tomorrow. What else is up in your neck of
the woods? Well, I didn't have much
yesterday. I recorded that pod.
I went to Costco with my with my wife and daughters today.
It's been 24 hours since you asked me yesterday what I had up
and it was what's a lot going on?
Thursdays They did, They did. My 8 year old was crushing it,
man. She was making a killing
tonight. Did you see that guy who just
did the bit where he ate exclusively Costco hot dogs for
an entire week as his only sustenance?
It was some viral video. I did not see that.
Yeah, seemed like a great time. Can we just before we get out of
here, The chat is just easy coming on Alex and then Alex
says easy, I'm using your ranks and.
Then. That's fantastic.
Poor, poor Alex. The the trajectory of Alex's
streams last night, he was just setting up the Bills thing, and
Liam just comes in kool-aid bad, and he just takes all the bills.
And then tonight, he's like, I'm finally going to get my bills.
Bill. Shakur and Trent Sherfield.
We love you Alex. Thank you for hopping in the
drafts. The other programming note in
addition to the show tomorrow. So next weekend we're not gonna
have a typical Thursday show. I'm gonna be traveling, but we
are gonna do a Monday night playoff ship cast.
We we'll probably try to book a guest.
We gotta talk about that. But yeah, we will be live at
8:00 PM for Bucks Eagles and yeah we'll fire up some pickums.
I'll I'll do a giveaway to the store too for ship chasing
merch. I don't think we got the UD
credits anymore but we'll do a giveaway.
Just classic ship cast stuff. Just on a Monday night, the
Monday Night Football hammer. So looking forward to that as
well. Totally blast.
We can. We can recap the opening
weekend, everything that happens Saturday, so much happens in the
FFPC tournament and everything that we'll be able to talk
through a lot of that on Monday night.
Yeah, yeah, there will be a lot to discuss.
We can pull up some of our big mitten teams we draft and see
what's live to advance. It'll be a very fun night to
sweat all of that good stuff. Thank you guys all for hanging
out in the chat. Get some sleep.
Rest up for the big finale tomorrow with Leonie and Dink.
Thanks again to Sacrilegious and Draco coming on, dropping bombs,
spitting fire, helping us crack these contests.
And yeah, we'll keep the conversation going in the
Discord. If you guys want to become
YouTube members, you can unlock that.
Otherwise we'll see you guys tomorrow night. 815 Peace.