1 00:00:02,200 --> 00:00:07,000 We are now officially halfway through the regular season of 2 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:11,880 the NFL, and on tonight's special election night edition 3 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:16,360 of Stat Chasing, we breakdown how the race is going to shake 4 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,960 out over the rest of the season. It's going to come down to turn 5 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:23,480 out whoever scores the most points in the swing weeks. 6 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:26,240 I've heard that Week 17 is all that matters. 7 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:35,840 This is stat chasing. Pat Fryer, Helmo. 8 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:42,160 This is Anita Handjob. Fix your sight, Jamar. 9 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:44,360 Alpha. Play Chase. 10 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:49,880 You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at 11 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:50,600 this point. You're right. 12 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:02,160 I like how when I have a a somewhat questionable cold open, 13 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:04,959 you just kind of let me sit and marinate in it for a little bit 14 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:06,880 before. You oh, So what happened there 15 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:11,960 is the the Internet, it was spotty coming in and out and I 16 00:01:11,960 --> 00:01:15,200 didn't want to quit you short. And so there was a point at the 17 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:19,920 end where you were like at where it was like you were mid 18 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:21,520 sentence, but I hadn't heard the rest. 19 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:24,440 So I'm guessing there was like two or three seconds where you 20 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,120 finished and then you're like, come on. 21 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,000 I just, I just thought you were more. 22 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,000 Making it awkward. On purpose. 23 00:01:33,320 --> 00:01:35,600 I didn't make it awkward. But not on purpose, not this 24 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:40,680 time. Man, it, it feels like it's 25 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,480 flown by. We're, we're officially over 26 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:48,720 halfway through the NFL season. I mean, this this season really 27 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:53,320 feels like it's coming down to did you draft Saquon Barkley or 28 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,960 Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara? And that's that's about it. 29 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:01,360 You know, to Darnell Mooney, one of the other extremely high 30 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:05,520 advance rate players. But yeah, those those are really 31 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:07,560 the defining players. I mean, really, I think it's the 32 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:09,639 story of those running backs more than anything. 33 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:12,720 Right. And yeah, I and I think there's 34 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,080 a lot of noise on Twitter or or commentary on Twitter that 35 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:19,840 essentially like advance rate is just condensed around those 36 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:21,840 guys. And so you either have them or 37 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:26,040 you don't. And I think it would be like 38 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,000 it's an unusual season. It has been an unusual season. 39 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,680 They're all unusual, but this particularly unusual. 40 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:37,240 And it's still like it. There's something itching at me 41 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:40,600 that like it's we're not just going to go quietly into the 42 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:44,040 night of like from week one through 17. 43 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:49,680 Did you have Derrick Henry yes or no as like that decides if 44 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,520 you win or not. Like I I'm oversimplifying, but 45 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,000 I don't know it it. It usually just doesn't work 46 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,680 like that. Well, yeah, with the especially 47 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,880 with the mechanics of the playoff weeks where it's not 48 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:05,760 just, hey, are you performing really well on average? 49 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:08,160 You know, and you can have a a miss here and there and it 50 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,440 doesn't really matter. It's over a 14 week regular 51 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,640 season. If you're crushing, you can take 52 00:03:13,640 --> 00:03:16,040 a week off here and there and just kind of rest on your 53 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:18,760 laurels if you're really lapping the field as hard as these guys 54 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:20,800 are. But when it comes down to the 55 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,560 money weeks, if you do have one of those down weeks, there's no 56 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,640 second chances, you know, right? And. 57 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:32,520 They all have a lot of fragility in their in their points, in the 58 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,080 way they score points. Yeah, it is. 59 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:40,360 I don't know if you saw the the running back expected touchdowns 60 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:44,200 chart that Hayden Winks put out, but you know, all of those 61 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,600 running backs are running so hot. 62 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:51,160 I mean, Derrick Henry is running like, yeah, leagues and leagues 63 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,440 above expectation and expect a touchdown. 64 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:58,920 So and we've seen down weeks for those guys this season. 65 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,640 I mean, Derrick, one of Derrick Henry's worst weeks, almost 66 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,920 almost worst weeks. He then salvages, you know, late 67 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,200 in the second-half with a big breakaway run. 68 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,960 So it's right. You definitely can see the path 69 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:17,480 for these guys to have a, a quiet week and and that could be 70 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,720 curtains for these teams because like if you look at some of the 71 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:24,840 teams that have these running backs on them, there's a lot of 72 00:04:24,840 --> 00:04:26,440 them that really aren't much else. 73 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,480 Like, I've seen screenshots of teams where it's like, oh, I 74 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,520 have Derek Henry and I have Saquon Barkley, and my wide 75 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:36,360 receivers scored a total between all three of my wide receivers 76 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,800 starting spots of 22 points this week, right? 77 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,280 And I have Lamar as well. Yeah, and I'm ahead by 200 by 78 00:04:42,280 --> 00:04:46,960 the way, you know I. Have Lamar Saquon and and Derek 79 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:51,040 Henry and and I just win. And, and I, I think like what's 80 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:54,160 interesting, like you, you, you think about that in context of 81 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:59,200 like historical things where I'm trying to think of like the just 82 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:03,600 a pure monster season, 2021 Cooper Cup of just monster 83 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,960 evisceration season. But the thing about that season 84 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:11,400 was all of his like usage metrics were like off the charts 85 00:05:11,840 --> 00:05:15,280 all year. And and and and that's an 86 00:05:15,280 --> 00:05:18,000 example of one where it actually just continued all the way 87 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,360 through the playoffs and and and beyond. 88 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:26,200 But then some other players like I'm I'm trying to think of I'm 89 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,960 sorry, that was his. I think another player was 90 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,560 Dalvin Cook 2020. Like I want to see say he had 91 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:37,320 like just this monster, monster advance rate and then completely 92 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:41,800 credited in the playoffs. You, you what? 93 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:45,240 I'm just, I'm just trying to like come up with historical 94 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:51,600 parallels where I, I, I think to, to, to consistently project 95 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,800 it all the way true. You, you do need stronger and, 96 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:58,160 and I think we can go further into that, into that as part of 97 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,160 our conversation. But I, I, I think that's 98 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:03,240 important. Yeah. 99 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,360 And and I don't really want to, I want to make sure that we're 100 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:10,040 not like framing this as copium for people that didn't draft 101 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:13,240 those running backs because, you know, neither certainly neither. 102 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,440 Of us, right, right. None of this is actionable and 103 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,840 all of it is like, but it it it's just commentary I guess. 104 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:23,360 Yeah, I think it's it's more like for, I know a lot of the 105 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:25,760 people that are listening, you know, if you're plugged into 106 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,640 week 9 of stat chasing on election night, like you're 107 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,280 probably not the people that need to hear this of like, hey, 108 00:06:32,280 --> 00:06:35,160 this is a game where we need to think probabilistically and 109 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:38,800 things have a range of outcomes and the way that events occur 110 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,160 are not the only way they possibly ever could have 111 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:42,440 occurred. And so. 112 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:44,640 I mean, everyone needs that reminder. 113 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,200 I need that reminder. Yeah, I, I don't know, but you, 114 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,680 I definitely do. So it it it can be helpful to 115 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:51,800 say it. Yeah, but viewing things through 116 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:56,360 that lens, it it definitely makes it, it, it it it gives you 117 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:59,880 a better approach to the game and helps you to have more 118 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:03,480 useful and actionable analysis rather than just, you know, I I 119 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,200 the the thing that. Yeah, maybe the way to use it, 120 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:08,960 sorry, I, I, I know I'm interrupting, but maybe the way 121 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:13,720 to use it is like maybe top full fades of those guys when they 122 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:18,040 get really high ownership weeks kind of like understand the the 123 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:20,560 fragility and some of the projection and and and maybe 124 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,640 that maybe that's the way to to use this analysis. 125 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,920 Yeah, the, the other thing that I would would point out, 'cause 126 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:32,160 I was just, I've seen a bunch of people talking about like, oh, 127 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,840 the, the big take away from this season is that when you get 128 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:39,840 these running backs priced in the dead zone, especially guys 129 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:44,440 who you know, they, you know, they, they went on, they moved 130 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,120 to good teams, their older running backs, but they switched 131 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,200 to good teams. Then you just have to attack 132 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,320 them. And I really like if you truly 133 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:56,360 were to sit down and come up with a reasonable projection for 134 00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:00,120 a range of outcomes for I think Derrick Henry's, Derrick Henry 135 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:04,040 and Saquon Barkley both are are pretty, I think comparable in 136 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:07,000 this exercise. But neither of these guys you're 137 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:09,360 going to be able to project very much passing volume forward 138 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:11,720 Derrick Henry just because that's never been his bad for 139 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:17,000 his entire career. Saquon he's had he has a season 140 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,400 where he had the really good pass catching chops, but that 141 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:23,200 was his rookie season. Then after that, he never has 142 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:28,400 put up a good by, you know, the statistics and peripherals pass 143 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,440 catching season. And so you've got two guys where 144 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,039 it's pretty unlikely they're going to be super, super 145 00:08:34,039 --> 00:08:36,960 effective in the passing game. They're both going to teams that 146 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,799 do not use their running backs very much in the passing game. 147 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,240 So then you're really looking at the the path to these guys 148 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,520 absolutely crushing and, and being the guys you need is they 149 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,560 have extreme efficiency on the ground and they're both older 150 00:08:49,560 --> 00:08:51,080 players. And that's something that we 151 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:54,520 want to be cautious of leaning into relying on extreme 152 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:58,480 efficiency from older players, especially ones who have taken a 153 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,680 step back in their peripherals like Saquon had he really had 154 00:09:01,680 --> 00:09:05,800 not put up a a season with really good efficiency for quite 155 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,560 a while. Derrick Henry, I think he 156 00:09:07,560 --> 00:09:09,680 definitely could have made the argument of, well, we hadn't 157 00:09:09,680 --> 00:09:12,480 seen the guy fall off and he's going to a better situation. 158 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,920 So that one I I think is probably closer to like a 159 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:20,280 process miss. But even then, even if Derrick 160 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:25,200 Henry got 1800 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, which you 161 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,960 know, would you would say that's an incredible season, He's still 162 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:32,200 not going to bury you. 1800 yards and eight touchdowns still 163 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:34,880 doesn't bury you. You really need like the high 164 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:38,200 double digit touchdowns to actually bury you. 165 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:40,120 And damn it, that's what he's doing. 166 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:44,480 You know he's he's going to go for 2020 is what it looks like 167 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:47,400 so. Yeah, Derek Henry is the one 168 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,920 where it's like, what's he gonna do, break off a long touchdown 169 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,360 just every single week? And it's like, yes, that's what 170 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:57,080 he's gonna do. But but when you were, if you 171 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:00,720 were to assign a probability of that happening and like a way to 172 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,600 kind of sanity check your probability for these events is 173 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:08,000 you certainly can use pre season Vegas lines to give you like an 174 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,480 approximation of what a median outcome would be. 175 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,880 Just so you kind of know that your projections are at least 176 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:15,560 sane. And and I don't think that 177 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,640 putting a single number on a projection is the way to do it. 178 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:22,160 I really think that you need to think probabilistically and, and 179 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:25,040 have like a, a range of outcomes that you can assign to these 180 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,120 guys. But even then, like, what do you 181 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,000 think the probability is of Derrick Henry going for? 182 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,400 Let's just, let's give him an even more reasonable line over 183 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:39,120 1700 yards and 15 touchdowns. I'd say like that's, that's 184 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,320 pretty easily less than a 20% outcome, you know, And so like 185 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:45,800 when you think through stuff like that, it's really like, 186 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:49,800 man, it, it probably is not as big a process miss as it looks 187 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:54,160 like, like we probably under in, you know, in doing our rankings 188 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,520 this offseason, like we probably underestimated the frequency at 189 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:02,080 which those ceilings occur. But underestimated this tail 190 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,360 outcome I think is the way. We put it yeah, we. 191 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,000 We. Might have been. 192 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:10,160 And we might have had it as you know, his his tail outcome where 193 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:15,440 he's above 1700 and and 15 touchdowns is only happening 8% 194 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:17,880 of the time. It really happens 12% of the 195 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:21,920 time, which that's a big deal. But when it happens, when you 196 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:24,920 get that outcome in real life and it gets shoved down your 197 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:29,280 throat, it feels like this massive process miss when like 198 00:11:29,680 --> 00:11:35,240 probably north of 7580% of the time you're feeling great at 199 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,440 this point, having faded those guys, because that's just the 200 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:41,120 most like the most likely outcome is they don't shove it 201 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,040 down your throat. And so it's just that it's 202 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,800 trying to hold all of those things in your head, even in the 203 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,560 face of like Yep. But this in this specific 204 00:11:49,560 --> 00:11:53,720 outcome, you look really wrong. But I'm, I'm really hopeful that 205 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:55,680 the market like overcorrects to that. 206 00:11:55,680 --> 00:12:00,240 I think it's gonna be hard to really overcorrect too hard 207 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,560 'cause I I think the wide receiver prices are kind of here 208 00:12:02,560 --> 00:12:04,840 to stay. But those are just some some 209 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:10,560 musings I I've been thinking of. So I, I, I, I, I think I one, 210 00:12:10,560 --> 00:12:12,360 one thing in the way I'd characterize what happened to 211 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:14,840 Derrick Henry. When I think the learning is I 212 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:20,680 think what we got wrong is in understanding in the outcomes 213 00:12:20,680 --> 00:12:24,000 where Derrick Henry is having a good year for the Titans. 214 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:29,240 I'm sorry for the for the Ravens, I should say in in those 215 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:33,800 outcomes, the tail outcomes are much further right along the 216 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:36,720 points distribution than what we taught. 217 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:42,200 And so like hit his chances of hitting those 20 to 25 point a 218 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:46,880 game seasons is much higher because his tail goes much 219 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:50,560 further. And I think maybe like Derek 220 00:12:50,560 --> 00:12:53,480 Henry's like a legendary player, like legendary. 221 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:58,080 And so maybe maybe being too quick to write off a legendary 222 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:04,840 player is, is a fair comment. But I, I, I, I think maybe like 223 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,600 like you're saying he he's the one where like just true 224 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:12,360 legendary, a legend, whereas the other ones were just very good, 225 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:16,040 very, very, very good, but not legendary like Derrick Henry. 226 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:20,080 Derrick Henry is like one in one in like 101 in a million. 227 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:25,080 Yeah, well, I think that's enough musings off a. 228 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:28,440 Preview Yes. But let's let's go ahead and get 229 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:32,120 into quarterbacks. I did have a small improvement 230 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:36,480 that I made on this chart this week, Draco, it looks fantastic. 231 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,880 I fixed a bug with the quarterback rushing and the, the 232 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:45,240 size of their bubbles. So previously we, we caught it 233 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:48,880 when Lamar's bubble just kept getting larger and larger. 234 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:53,000 And I I was able to find and squash said bug, and now the 235 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,960 bubble should be much more reflective of the average 236 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:57,640 rushing yards per game that these quarterbacks. 237 00:13:57,640 --> 00:14:02,520 Have that's like, that's like a Jim Halpin like prank where he 238 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:05,720 just makes a bubble a little bit bigger every week. 239 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,280 But. Actually it was like a bug that 240 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,800 was. By Week 14, Lamar, literally. 241 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,560 Takes up the entire no, there's nothing wrong with this chart. 242 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,440 What do you guys mean? We kind of live perfectly. 243 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:24,520 Well, so this this week is really interesting. 244 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,520 You've got we we finally got a decent number of byes. 245 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,960 These are these are some of my favorite weeks for fantasy. 246 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,360 You're far enough into the season where there's some 247 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:37,520 injuries that are making you kind of get down a little deeper 248 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:40,400 in the player pool. You've got byes finally hitting. 249 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:44,080 And so you know, again, that's that's thinning out the player 250 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:45,240 pool. You're having to go to more 251 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,680 fringe players. And so this is where the real 252 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:52,080 grinders can actually realize some of their where you just 253 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:55,720 know more about a player's profile that some people don't 254 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:57,920 even know the name of who are going to be playing contest 255 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,080 against you this week. So I'm pretty excited for this 256 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,640 week. Unfortunately, one of the games 257 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:07,040 that I am the most excited for is not on the main slate. 258 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:10,360 I mean, this one sets up to be potentially game of the season 259 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:15,600 and that is the Ravens versus the Bengals to get Lamar 260 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:20,400 Jackson, MVP favorite going against Joe Burrow, who is one 261 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,120 of our most efficient pocket passers here. 262 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:25,920 And the first game already shot out. 263 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:30,440 The first game already shot out and and it feels like the Ravens 264 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:34,920 have been. I don't regressing is not the 265 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,760 right word, but it feels like they've been getting softer and 266 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:40,800 softer in past defense with each passing week. 267 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,960 So it's a. Progressively worst quarterback, 268 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:48,160 just as like carving them up. Yes, yes, yeah. 269 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,280 So I'm, I'm pretty interested in this one. 270 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,000 I don't really think there's a ton of actionable takeaways for 271 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:54,480 this game. I just wanted to mention it 272 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,960 because it's such an exciting game, but it's going to be on 273 00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:00,040 the showdown slate. And I I wish I had like actual 274 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:04,080 stuff to give you for showdown. But to be perfectly blunt, like 275 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,520 my showdown process involves pushing the buttons for the 276 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:09,920 programs that I've spent a lot of time working on. 277 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:15,280 So it's really not, you know, I'm I'm trusting projections and 278 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,720 then for the most part, just clicking button and and 279 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,040 hopefully printing money. Hasn't been that way so far this 280 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:25,000 season. But I I guess the one little 281 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:27,520 take away I have for this game, if you want like a little bit of 282 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,560 alpha if you're trying to grind the showdown slate is if T 283 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,880 Higgins is out, my Kasiki looks like a really incredible play. 284 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:37,600 He just looks like he assumes that role and the offense as the 285 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,160 secondary target if Higgins isn't there. 286 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:42,560 And he did quite well with it this week. 287 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,640 But we'll, we'll talk more about him when we get to the tight end 288 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:51,680 section of the chart. Yeah, I, I and I just had taught 289 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:56,600 maybe I, I think maybe with our with our longer open with some, 290 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:58,720 some of the kind of less actionable stuff, I think we 291 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:02,160 should just kind of like hit it and and then then move on. 292 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,839 That's a That's a great call. All right, here's here's an 293 00:17:05,839 --> 00:17:09,760 actionable match up. So we've got the commanders and 294 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:12,040 the Steelers playing. So you've got Russell Wilson 295 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,400 currently, the quarterback said, if you've if you've watched us 296 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:19,200 for the last season and and all this season so far, you'll know 297 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:22,680 that when a guy lives in this spot on the chart, this is like 298 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:26,319 a Primo regression spot. You know, you you quite simply 299 00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:30,360 cannot run this hot forever. Unless they're very, very good. 300 00:17:30,360 --> 00:17:31,840 This is like the Peyton Manning zone. 301 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,280 Yeah, I was going to say there's there's two guys that would have 302 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,200 finished a season season here. It's Peyton Manning and Patrick 303 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,520 Mahomes when they each had over 50 touchdowns in the season. 304 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:42,720 Those are the only two people that live here. 305 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:47,520 So if you think Russell Wilson is on his way to a season where 306 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:51,520 he's pacing for 50 touchdowns and 5000 passing yards, then 307 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,320 yes, he absolutely can live here. 308 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,200 I don't think that's a very reasonable take. 309 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:58,600 Also, the Commanders pass defense. 310 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:01,800 I know to start the season, we were targeting the commanders 311 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,000 like no tomorrow. They were just this super soft 312 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:05,800 defense. Everyone was going to score a 313 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,360 million points on them. They've actually gotten a lot 314 00:18:08,360 --> 00:18:10,000 better. And then also they just made a 315 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,440 trade today at the deadline and got Marshawn Lattimore. 316 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,360 I I mean the Commanders pass defense was already looking 317 00:18:16,360 --> 00:18:18,720 strong. They're they're a mega run 318 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,800 funnel. They're minus 8% pass rate over 319 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,360 expected. And then they're like, if you 320 00:18:24,360 --> 00:18:27,960 look at their ESPN pass rush stuff, they're 4IN win rate. 321 00:18:29,120 --> 00:18:32,840 So I, I, I think the Steelers, they're especially with Arthur 322 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,760 Schmidt, like they're going to run the ball. 323 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,800 And I actually, so I, I, this weekend I was in a cabin in the 324 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,200 woods and I didn't have red zone. 325 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:45,040 So I had to like watch one game at a time And I actually watched 326 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:50,880 the the Commanders Giants game and they like the, the Giants 327 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,000 were just run in the first half anyway. 328 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:57,960 They just ran, ran, ran like at a certain point, the start line 329 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:02,400 for Daniel Jones was 4 completions of five attempts, 0 330 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:07,200 yards, 1 touchdown. And like they were just running 331 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,800 the piss out of the ball first down, second down and they were 332 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:11,880 getting their first downage. They were getting chewed up. 333 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:16,160 And so I I can't imagine a world where Arthur Smith's these are 334 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:19,880 tape and and just doesn't establish the shit out of run. 335 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:27,560 So I, I I think, I think Russell Wilson can't even be a 336 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:32,240 consideration this weekend in in like any format like you, you 337 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,080 can't start the guy in in redraft. 338 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:38,720 You can't play him anywhere. Like he he he's completely 339 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,480 unsertable. Yeah, definitely agree with 340 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,920 that. I I pretty much lockstep with 341 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,320 you on all of that analysis. I didn't know you also were were 342 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,960 off grid this past weekend. I I too, was off grid and had to 343 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:55,400 figure out a creative way to watch the games and then get 344 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,600 caught up once I got back to civilization. 345 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,920 But one take away or one one kind of insight that I had for 346 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:05,360 this matchup is I think that it might also be kind of a trap 347 00:20:05,360 --> 00:20:08,080 matchup for Jayden Daniels. You know, Pittsburgh has a 348 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,160 pretty good defense. And I really just think that the 349 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:15,440 pace of this game might end up, you know, reducing the total 350 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,560 play volume for Washington enough. 351 00:20:18,120 --> 00:20:20,800 That you just get kind of a ho hum game for Daniels. 352 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,200 I don't want to say that he can't go out there and still 353 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,120 have a really good performance, but something like, you know, 354 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:31,720 200 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 40 or 50 rushing yards seems 355 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,360 like it'd probably be a pretty good outcome for him here. 356 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:39,120 And I just think that it's likely that his cost is just 357 00:20:39,120 --> 00:20:42,480 going to be too high to justify playing him in what might just 358 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:47,560 be a match stuck in the mud because of the the Steelers 359 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,400 propensity to want to run anyway. 360 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,360 And then you've got Washington, who is a really good match up 361 00:20:52,360 --> 00:20:56,120 for the run. Yeah, yeah, I, I agree. 362 00:20:56,120 --> 00:20:59,480 I I think he's he's gonna score a fine with his rushing floor 363 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:05,040 and all that kind of stuff. But like, outlaws happen, but 364 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,480 really hard to project. Like a smash week for Rad. 365 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:12,280 Jayden Daniels here. The one where I do want to 366 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:16,480 project a smash week and I I want to just kind of lean into 367 00:21:17,120 --> 00:21:21,720 outliers happen and this is a good spot and I would like to 368 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:26,080 just take my chances on when the positive outlier game in this 369 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,840 spot comes. It's for a million points and 370 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,160 that's Brock Purdy. You get the 49ers coming off a 371 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:37,640 buy against quite possibly the best defensive matchup for a 372 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:39,800 quarterback. You know, coming going against 373 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,640 the Buccaneers, you're very likely getting CMC back. 374 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,480 And I I just think that's an overall massive improvement to 375 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,280 the offense. It doesn't even need, you know, 376 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,400 to be that CMC is getting a full workload or anything like that. 377 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,880 Just having him out there on the field is such a threat to a 378 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:58,800 defense. It's, you know, it's so much for 379 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:03,560 the defense to account for and I, I really think that this is a 380 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,360 smash spot. It's the highest total game on 381 00:22:06,360 --> 00:22:09,440 the main slate. And I, I had to check Purdy's 382 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,440 price because as I was going through and writing up the show 383 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:16,240 notes, I was like, man, if he's at all reasonably priced on 384 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,960 DraftKings, I'm, I'm probably just going to end up with like a 385 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:21,680 stupid amount of Brock Purdy this week. 386 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,920 And he's only 6500 on DraftKings. 387 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:28,680 That is cheaper than Patrick Mahomes versus Denver, which 388 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:33,120 just seems egregious to me. So I'll, I'll probably, if I had 389 00:22:33,120 --> 00:22:35,960 to guess right now, I mean, unless the ownership on Purdy is 390 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:39,480 absurd, I'll probably end up with something like north of 30% 391 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:44,080 on Purdy, which is I'm usually pretty flat at quarterback, so. 392 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,840 Yeah, that makes sense. I I don't have much to add. 393 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,760 I think Tampa Bay are a decent defense and they're, they're not 394 00:22:53,760 --> 00:23:00,120 a thicker pass funnel, but I, I, I think that the, the reasons to 395 00:23:00,120 --> 00:23:04,080 bet on San Francisco off the by Brock Purdy with CMC back are 396 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,160 pretty clear and, and, and that all makes sense to me. 397 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,320 The the next spot that I thought was a pretty good one for this 398 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:18,360 week is Josh Allen. So he is getting the Colts and 399 00:23:18,360 --> 00:23:21,000 the Colts have definitely been a pass funnel. 400 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,520 You've also seen the Bills a little bit more. 401 00:23:26,120 --> 00:23:30,520 I mean, they're not they're not past heavy by any means, but 402 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,120 Josh Allen is getting enough now to where he can certainly put up 403 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:40,480 very viable fantasy games. You probably get Amari Cooper 404 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,560 back this week, I would think, which should be a benefit to 405 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:47,240 them. But I just this Colts defense 406 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,800 looks like a really good spot to attack. 407 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:55,560 Well, I, I so just looking at some of that, the cold stuff, if 408 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,200 you look at their, if you look at their pass rate over expected 409 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:04,440 against their negative, their negative at 8%. 410 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:09,280 And, and I think some, some of that is because you have you had 411 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,400 the Green Bay game, you have stuff like that. 412 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,800 And I do wonder if it's if they're just one of those like 413 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:19,280 paper mache defenses where you just get to do, you get to run 414 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,760 whatever play you want successfully like they can't 415 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,320 stop it. Yeah, I mean, I think I think 416 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:30,880 that is probably the most likely thing I'm looking here in let's 417 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,560 let me find this. There's a really good. 418 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,760 So this is. If the if the Bills are rolling, 419 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,760 which they showed against a really weak defense like that 420 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,280 kind of does operate true. Josh Allen, I don't know if I 421 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,080 would like stock them with anybody else other than like a 422 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:51,240 running back, but it's a pretty, it's a pretty good matchup. 423 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,760 Yeah, that that actually is one thing that I want to point out 424 00:24:54,760 --> 00:25:00,400 for the draft style format. Like Dog Bowl on Underdog, Josh 425 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:05,320 Allen gets paired at, I believe too high a frequency with his 426 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,720 pass catchers. Part of it is because of how 427 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,280 cheap his pass catchers have been these past couple slates, 428 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,400 but he's one of the quarterbacks that gets, you know, the highest 429 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,960 stacking frequency from all the stuff that I've been tracking. 430 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,120 Now I'm dealing with an incomplete data set. 431 00:25:20,120 --> 00:25:22,120 I'm just going off of the drafts that I'm in. 432 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,760 But from the rooms that I'm in, Josh Allen gets stacked at a 433 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:29,480 really, really high frequency. And so last week I was attacking 434 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,760 that by playing a lot of Josh Allen, Keyon Coleman 'cause he, 435 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,440 Keyon Coleman and Josh Allen were not being drafted together 436 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:39,800 hardly at all, like less than 25% of the rate that he was 437 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:45,200 being drafted together with other weapons on the Bills this 438 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,960 week, I think the way that I'm going to do it is I'm just going 439 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,600 to play a lot of naked Josh Allen. 440 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:54,240 And I'm, I'm going to rely on the vast majority of the other 441 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:58,960 Josh Allen teams just willfully drafting a dud on their team 442 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,640 and, and throwing in, you know, Khalil Shakur, who has had a 443 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:08,080 solid role, but he's going to get like 7 targets for -6 area 444 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,400 yards and maybe have like, you know, 10 fantasy points unless 445 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,640 he finds a way to fall into the end zone or something. 446 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:18,000 And so I think I really do like just playing it through naked 447 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,080 Josh Allen. I did find the stat that I 448 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:25,440 wanted to to cite about the Colts being a run funnel here or 449 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:31,600 a excuse me, where is I I? Mean I, I, I can help you. 450 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:35,840 I'm if I'm if you exclude the if you exclude the the Dolphins and 451 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:40,560 the Titans. OK, so I've got it here. 452 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,280 It's it's pass funnel defenses by EPA per drop back versus EPA 453 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,680 per rush. So the Colts are the third 454 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:52,240 highest only behind the Jaguars and the Ravens as far as pass 455 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,120 funnels go. And they're they're pretty high 456 00:26:55,120 --> 00:26:58,680 up there relative to other defenses. 457 00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:05,320 So yeah, they they definitely are giving up more by EPA 458 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:10,400 through the air. But yeah, I do, I think really 459 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,080 you're, you're correct in that you can do whatever you want 460 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,240 against the Colts. So it, it might just be a 461 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,400 situation where the Bills do want to run and they go back to 462 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,840 that tendency. And again, you still probably 463 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:25,960 can get there with Josh Allen, but I don't think it's a spot 464 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,760 where you really need to have a bring back or a stacking partner 465 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,800 with them. Right, right. 466 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,320 That that, that. That's kind of my sense as well. 467 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:37,480 And then your your next guy was Sam Darnold. 468 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,800 Yeah, I think this is AI mean we, we just talked about pass 469 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:43,920 funnels. The the Jaguars are the pass 470 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:48,520 funnel to end all pass funnels number one in EPA per drop back 471 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:52,880 versus EPA per rush. So and I mean, we just we saw 472 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:58,160 the the Jaguars are just so, so putrid at defending the pass. 473 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:02,680 I mean, the the Eagles didn't really need to pass on them, but 474 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,840 it still felt like they kind of did for fun. 475 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:09,520 You know, like the Devonta Smith touchdown was just like, yeah, 476 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:10,600 and we'll throw this one in, too. 477 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:15,120 And then the game ended up being much closer in final score than 478 00:28:15,120 --> 00:28:18,360 it was the entire game. Like, that game was a beat down 479 00:28:18,360 --> 00:28:20,440 through and through. And then the Eagles ended up 480 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,080 with a mistake late that led the Jaguars back in the game. 481 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:28,200 The game was not particularly close, but the Jags have had a 482 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:33,160 relatively strong rush defense and I I do think that this is a 483 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,080 pretty interesting spot for Darnold the one. 484 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:37,920 Thing and Sam Darnold has been good this year. 485 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,360 Like you can see on our chart that he's played well. 486 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,440 Yeah, he's been trending a little bit worse these last few 487 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,160 weeks. Like if you if you go back and 488 00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:51,000 look at our charts over the last couple weeks, he's been moving 489 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,160 away from the direction that you'd want him to move in. 490 00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,520 But I mean, overall he he has been good. 491 00:28:58,520 --> 00:28:59,320 So you're. You're not. 492 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,360 And he has been good even recently. 493 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:05,680 So if you look at, you look at week eight against the Rams, so 494 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:09,160 that's excluding the Colts game. Like I, I don't think you can 495 00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,560 just throw out the Colts game because we just said they're, 496 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,040 they're terrible and he had a, a bad game against them. 497 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:20,000 He had 9.7 adjusted yards per attempt against, in week eight 498 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:23,160 against the Rams. So I, I to me, this feels like 499 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,880 more of like an, an, an inconsistency where he's been 500 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:31,200 inconsistent and rather than like a trend downwards. 501 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,600 OK, yeah, that's, that's reasonable. 502 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,360 And, and yeah, I'm actually, I'm looking back in week six, he 503 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,080 really, I, I was just trying to go back a number of weeks. 504 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,760 He really hadn't moved all that much on the chart. 505 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,440 I know he got a pretty hot start. 506 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:48,120 Yeah. So in this is what I'm thinking 507 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:49,800 of. So in week four he was much 508 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,440 higher. He's almost a full yard higher 509 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,920 in in adjusted yards per attempt. 510 00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:59,680 So he's cooled down a little bit from that really hot start, but 511 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:01,440 he's still been been pretty good. 512 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,040 So that was that was really the thing I was worried about. 513 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:05,600 But it sounds like you're not worried at all. 514 00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,080 You'd you'd be firing about this. 515 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,120 Spot Yeah, I mean, I I just like it. 516 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:13,280 It feels wrong to me to like ignore like, hey, he was great 517 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:17,800 in, in week 8, but we just saw him in prime time looking bad. 518 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:22,520 Like I, I, I, I feel like that's just being, that's what makes 519 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,640 him a good GPP play where people saw him fail last week. 520 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:30,120 We'll be more hesitant to play him and but we know he, he, he 521 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:34,440 definitely 100% has those like better outcomes in his range. 522 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:40,000 And I, I, I, I think that's a good GPP play. 523 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,520 OK. Yeah, that that makes sense to 524 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,960 me. Last quarterback that I wanted 525 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:50,040 to talk about here was CJ Stroud, who has definitely been 526 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:55,840 underwhelming based on, I would say like the expectations of the 527 00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,360 the fantasy community at large heading into the season. 528 00:30:59,960 --> 00:31:03,760 I mean, I, I certainly think part of it is on Stroud and he 529 00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,920 has, he hasn't been bad. You know, he if you look at he's 530 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,760 in the top right quadrant of the chart. 531 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:13,520 He he's doing fine. His volume has been much less 532 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,080 than I think we would have desired. 533 00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,280 But I'm, I'm wondering if you think that this match up against 534 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:26,440 the Lions could be enough to push the Texans here or the 535 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,880 other thing is, I I'm just concerned that it's two teams 536 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,480 that really want to run the ball and they might just run the ball 537 00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,240 into each other's faces over and over and over. 538 00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,600 And then maybe by the time the Lions get out to a big enough 539 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:43,520 lead to really dictate the pass to the Texans, we're just too 540 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,440 far into the game And it, you know, we're not able to really 541 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,240 get a lot out of strap. What do you what do you think 542 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:52,040 about this spot? I think you, you definitely need 543 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:56,120 Nico back. It can't just be tanked out. 544 00:31:57,600 --> 00:31:59,960 So I think that I think that's pretty critical. 545 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,800 And then I think it was, I forget who tweeted this ad, but 546 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:10,000 somebody said that essentially the, the Houston Texans online, 547 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,280 they've been credited with the most amount of socks that were 548 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:17,760 unblocked. So they're like, or it was 549 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:22,120 either socks or pressures. So they, I think it was 550 00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,760 pressures. So their old line has, or their 551 00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:28,200 past protection has been really, really bad, really, really bad. 552 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:33,480 And I think I, I think he can see Joe Stroud is like good 553 00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,640 enough to overcome that in, in a given game. 554 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,960 But I I think it it really depends on if you get any go 555 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:43,800 back. Yeah, I haven't seen an update 556 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,400 on what his status is going to be for this weekend. 557 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:48,960 It was a perfectly like middling. 558 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:53,200 It was like, hey, we're going to evaluate really, really hard all 559 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,680 week and then we'll make a call. I wonder. 560 00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:02,800 So yeah, they're evaluating, unfortunately. 561 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:10,960 Now is this where, where is this game on this slate? 562 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:15,440 I'm it, it, it must not be on the main slate. 563 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:26,120 I he was trying to find it here. Game so oh, it's a it's a Sunday 564 00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,120 night. Thank you. 565 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,840 OK, that makes sense. All right, Well, nothing, 566 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:36,040 nothing terribly actionable then, cuz I mean, you're 567 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:39,400 probably not starting golf or Stroud in a managed league. 568 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,720 So yeah, nothing. Nothing really all that actual 569 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:45,280 there. My, my bad for not realizing 570 00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:51,000 that wasn't on the main slate. And then we we should move on to 571 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:52,960 the the running. Yeah, let's let's get to running 572 00:33:52,960 --> 00:34:01,600 backs here. So yeah, we've got our running 573 00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:07,320 back snaps and usage chart and and your kind of first note here 574 00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:12,400 was about something you had some concern that the the mix and 575 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:18,320 snap count went down quite a bit in in the kind of like wonky 576 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:22,320 game script with the with The Jets a negative at some points. 577 00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,360 Yeah, you got you got a lot more dare. 578 00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:30,440 I mean in the in the pure past situations he, he is coming off 579 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,480 the field. So that's a little bit 580 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:34,320 concerned. And that's his entire career. 581 00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:40,440 And even with the Bengals and then the RA, he's kind of 582 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,800 consistently been there passing them back. 583 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:49,600 So if you get a week, I mean, I think this is like a very clear 584 00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,880 example of a game script like risky back who's relying on 585 00:34:53,880 --> 00:35:01,360 touchdowns, who's relying on on rushing or even even like first 586 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:05,600 and 2nd down receptions. Those work too, but very game 587 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,880 script dependence and and you need the touchdowns to really 588 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,000 get there. Yeah. 589 00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:14,360 And so it, you know, against the Lions, we did talk about this 590 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:16,360 matchup. It's it could be a little 591 00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,440 concerning here, you know? Right, that'd be a good run 592 00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:23,200 defense and their and their their offense is awesome. 593 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:28,880 Yeah, the other guy that I had a note here on is Remandre. 594 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,680 His his role looks pretty solid. I mean. 595 00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,720 It looks wrong. the IT looks wrong. 596 00:35:35,720 --> 00:35:38,040 He's he's our, he's our primary pass blocker. 597 00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:42,440 So he's they're passing their own guy and he's our main goal 598 00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,680 line back sometimes. I mean, sometimes being the 599 00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:49,440 Patriots main goal and back doesn't mean shit because you 600 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,320 have to, you have to guess a goal line for that to matter. 601 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,720 But in in weeks where the Patriots are rolling, he's going 602 00:35:55,720 --> 00:35:57,360 to look really good. Yeah. 603 00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,800 And, and having Drake May as quarterback certainly is 604 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:03,960 improving the upside case for Mandre because they're actually 605 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,360 capable of scoring some touchdowns now, which is 606 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:11,520 fantastic for him. So I think it could be, you 607 00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,280 know, that he's a he's a little underrated for his role and 608 00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:19,240 especially so when you get a really good matchup for the 609 00:36:19,240 --> 00:36:21,840 Patriots. So the the ones that I kind of 610 00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:25,440 circled on the Patriots schedule are you get the Rams in week 11 611 00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:27,520 and then you get the Dolphins in week 12. 612 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:30,240 Both of those are pretty good matchups. 613 00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,480 So definitely, definitely interested in romandre there. 614 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:38,400 I think those are those are pretty good chances for us to 615 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,600 get. You know, one of the really 616 00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:44,600 exciting like true Drake may break out games or he he 617 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,360 actually puts up just a a monster week like has a 618 00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,840 legitimate chance for overall QB one on the week type 619 00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:55,880 performance. So definitely interested there. 620 00:36:56,560 --> 00:37:01,280 But but this match up this next week, not super enticing for the 621 00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:04,200 Patriots again, right? Right. 622 00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:09,520 And then your next note here was about a Chan and and it was kind 623 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,960 of like a request for me to pull up some, some splits. 624 00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:17,360 And so the thing about a Chan, you want to think, if you want 625 00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,960 to think about wit and without Chua. 626 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:24,280 So his kind of snap rate, his useful snap rate has been pretty 627 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,360 consistent. And you're, I mean, you're 628 00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:33,640 looking at something like 5060% and in that range game to game, 629 00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,720 I think he, he, he had a high watermark in this last game, 630 00:37:36,720 --> 00:37:40,320 which is definitely encouraging. But the big thing, the big 631 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:45,520 difference that Chua makes for a Chan is that when Chua in, in, 632 00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:50,080 in Chua's full game, fully healthy games, he has a 30% 633 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:54,040 targets per run, whereas when Chua hasn't played, it's been 634 00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:57,200 16%. And so I think that that's the 635 00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:01,920 big difference that you're seeing where Chua just seems to 636 00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:06,200 be very, very good at setting this guy up in the in the 637 00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,200 receiving game when they're both on the field together. 638 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,360 Yeah. And would you, would you mind 639 00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:13,880 going to the efficiency chart here? 640 00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:15,960 Because that's that's the thing that I think I really want to 641 00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,960 illustrate. And here it is. 642 00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:23,520 Yeah, if you look at how much expected fancy points he has 643 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:27,200 from receiving, I mean, the only guy with more is Alvin Kamara, 644 00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,480 who who's just, you know, the check down king. 645 00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:35,000 The the reason I'm so excited for a Chan here getting all of 646 00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:38,560 these high value touches is because he also is going to be 647 00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,640 efficient with them where Kamara has been good. 648 00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:45,320 You know, guy put up like what, 200 scrimmage yards this last 649 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,520 week. So you can't can't really shit 650 00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:51,080 on him all that much there. But with a Chan you have that, 651 00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:54,120 that upside of, Oh yeah, he could break this for an 80 yard 652 00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:59,440 touchdown on every single play. And so right, you get these high 653 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,640 value touches mixed in, you know, you're, you're going to 654 00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:05,040 get these outcomes like he gets us last week where he scored 655 00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:09,080 like 28 fantasy points. And then the way that you end up 656 00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:13,320 with those absolute slate breaking performances is he has 657 00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:16,720 a game like he had this week, which if you watch the game, it 658 00:39:16,720 --> 00:39:19,880 wasn't like, you know, he had some good plays, but it's not 659 00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:21,600 like, oh, it all came on one play. 660 00:39:21,720 --> 00:39:25,760 You know, he he went ahead and compiled a really solid game 661 00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:29,360 with a monster workload. And then the fact that any of 662 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,480 those touches can then just all of a sudden add an additional 15 663 00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,000 fantasy points. That's how you get the 40 664 00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:37,920 burger. That's how you get the 50 burger 665 00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,320 from a Chan. Like that's that's how you get 666 00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:42,920 the Noah Chan no money type of weeks. 667 00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:47,240 Those are the players that I just want to chase those guys 668 00:39:47,240 --> 00:39:52,080 because we just saw even even when he doesn't have that huge, 669 00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,920 you know, efficiency spike from a single play, he's still 670 00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:59,440 putting up like the second performance on the week. 671 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,200 He's one of their best, he's one of their best players, so they 672 00:40:02,240 --> 00:40:06,600 like they're they. He has to be important, He has 673 00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:08,280 to be a big part of them scoring points. 674 00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:14,080 Yeah, and I, I mean it, it almost feels like, and I think 675 00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:17,000 this is probably more of a small sample than anything, but I 676 00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:21,960 mean, he's at the very least contending with Tyreek for like 677 00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:25,360 the true #1 focal point on this offense. 678 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:30,200 I, I, I would not be surprised at all if we get like a true 679 00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,080 Tyree kill nuclear game soon. Here it. 680 00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:36,800 Just yeah, yeah. But I mean, you certainly 681 00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:40,520 certainly could see that it's it's more of like A1A1B 682 00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,320 situation. And I just kind of thinking of 683 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:46,640 this Dolphins offense as like it is, it's almost positionless 684 00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,600 between a Chan and and he'll like, of course, like a Chan is 685 00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:52,520 doing the more traditional running back stuff too, but he's 686 00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,360 getting a lot of these, you know, like he's getting like 687 00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:57,800 legitimate wide receiver snaps as well. 688 00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:01,840 So it, it, it's more like a weapon. 689 00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,960 It's weapon 1 weapon two. It's it's a little bit more 690 00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:06,920 positionless. But I just pulled up this 691 00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:10,800 efficiency chart from week 6 just to have some context where 692 00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,600 I've got the two games that two have played removed. 693 00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:16,840 And so I just have the backup quarterback games in here. 694 00:41:17,240 --> 00:41:21,160 And a Chan's expected receiving points in those games was all 695 00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:24,840 the way down at six and his efficiency was piss poor. 696 00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:26,200 It was like the worst on the chart. 697 00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,440 Oh, yeah, People were asking like, oh, is A Chan actually one 698 00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,040 of the worst running backs in the NFL? 699 00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:35,920 Like it's like, no, it it just turns out that when you know, 700 00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:40,080 the defenses can totally key in on this guy and not have to pay 701 00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:43,720 any mind to the passing game, it's really easy to take that 702 00:41:43,720 --> 00:41:46,280 threat away. So the the fact that you're 703 00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:50,160 getting not only like 4 additional expected fantasy 704 00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:52,680 points from receiving. And by the way, this is a this 705 00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,520 chart has a rolling four week input for the data. 706 00:41:55,520 --> 00:42:00,440 So we've still got two weeks in here with the the lower, you 707 00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:04,760 know, expected fantasy points in there by by the time we get to 708 00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:08,800 week 12, week 13, like a Chan is going to be above 20 expected 709 00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:12,040 fantasy points and he's going to be above 12 expected receiving 710 00:42:12,240 --> 00:42:14,760 points If if this trend continues. 711 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:20,200 So he's he's the guy with it. If you maybe bet money right 712 00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:24,720 now, he would be my odds on favorite for from now through 713 00:42:24,720 --> 00:42:28,360 the end of the season, putting up the profile that we need to 714 00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:30,880 see for a legitimate legendary season. 715 00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,760 And that's, that's, you know, has to hit all those very 716 00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:38,320 specific parameters where you've got the path to four receptions 717 00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:41,240 per game, you have the path to multiple 2 Green Zone touches 718 00:42:41,240 --> 00:42:45,120 per game, 23 full PPR fantasy points per game. 719 00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,600 And it it's just, it's pretty incredible that he's doing it at 720 00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:51,920 his size. But he would be my odds on 721 00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:55,840 favorite too finish the back half of the season as a true 722 00:42:55,840 --> 00:43:00,000 legendary running back. Makes makes sense for sure. 723 00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:04,960 The, the point, the comparison I I, I was drawn before the season 724 00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,840 was kind of like Chris Johnson. He's only 10 lbs lighter than 725 00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:10,240 Chris Johnson. Yeah. 726 00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:14,040 And like, it's kind of a decade later when the NFL is smaller. 727 00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:18,280 So to me, that's like like 10 lbs. 728 00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:21,040 Like feels like the average NFL player is 10 lbs lighter. 729 00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,840 Damn I that that's probably not like the most correct way to 730 00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,560 think about it, but that that's that's what makes it makes sense 731 00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,880 to me. No, I I certainly think that's a 732 00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:34,440 really good comparison. I have another guy here that I 733 00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:37,480 think is kind of an interesting a Chan comparison. 734 00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:43,560 He, he still lives on this chart and he's actually directly below 735 00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:45,960 a Chan. If you just go down, you know, 736 00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:50,080 about four expected receiving fantasy points, you'll find the 737 00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:53,400 other extremely efficient bubble here, and that's Jameer Gibbs, 738 00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,720 who's doing a champ things this season when he touches the ball, 739 00:43:56,920 --> 00:44:00,640 breaking off 73 yard touchdown runs like looking like one of 740 00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:02,360 the most explosive backs of the league. 741 00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:07,240 The the thing that is interesting is I think that our 742 00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:12,000 before the season, you know, perception of Gibbs was more 743 00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:15,520 like he's this receiving back, like he's the, you know, he'll 744 00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,560 probably get less volume than Montgomery. 745 00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:21,240 But also the hope was his talent, his raw talent is just 746 00:44:21,240 --> 00:44:23,520 going to win out during the season. 747 00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:25,760 And and the Lions won't be able to help themselves. 748 00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:28,600 They'll have to give him more touches than Montgomery and 749 00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,520 he'll be the true 1A then. And also he's the guy that gets 750 00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,360 the passing work. Right. 751 00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:36,360 And it's not even close if that's not even close to what's 752 00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,840 happening, right. Like he's been. 753 00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:40,440 Sorry, I'm, I'm interrupting you. 754 00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:41,920 Go ahead. No, that's OK. 755 00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:45,880 The the way it shook out this season is he is the passing 756 00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,560 back. But the Lions aren't involving 757 00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:50,560 him as much in the passing game as we would have liked. 758 00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,760 You know, he's if you see him, he's in the in the same range 759 00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:57,520 like Austin Eckler, Tyrone Tracy, DeAndre Swift, less 760 00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:00,160 involved than Romandre Stevenson, Kenneth Walker, you 761 00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,240 know, like substantially less involved than a Chan and Kamara. 762 00:45:03,240 --> 00:45:07,640 So I mean, speaking for myself, I definitely thought he would be 763 00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:11,120 right up there and possibly more receiving work than a Chan, 764 00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:14,320 probably less than Kamara, but again, thought he'd be more 765 00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:18,480 efficient. And so I think I for me, what 766 00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:21,600 I'm gonna do is reframe the way I look at Jamir Gibbs and just 767 00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,800 kind of see him as as like in a Chan type profile from last 768 00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:28,560 season where he's this electric can hit a home run from anywhere 769 00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:32,360 on the field type of runner. He he's he's just very good. 770 00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,720 He's a he's a complete player. He just happens to have a 771 00:45:35,720 --> 00:45:38,360 running back that the coaching staff really likes ahead of him. 772 00:45:38,720 --> 00:45:41,000 And I I don't, I don't think that you can say anything 773 00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:42,680 negative even about David Montgomery. 774 00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:46,240 He's been very good. So it's just you're gonna have 775 00:45:46,240 --> 00:45:49,080 to deal with lower workload but really high efficiency type 776 00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,760 player. Yeah. 777 00:45:51,760 --> 00:46:00,800 And I mean, the thing about that is he hasn't even in terms of 778 00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:05,720 passing work, he hasn't he, he's like been ahead of Monty, but 779 00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:10,000 over the last four games, you, you're looking at a 21% root 780 00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:13,480 rate for Gibbs versus A 14% root rate. 781 00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:20,200 And that's a of a percentage of total plays, not dropbacks, But 782 00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:22,840 I, I say, and it's 14% for Monty. 783 00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:26,080 So like he's he's a little bit ahead in the passing stuff, but 784 00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:30,600 not that much. He's at 22% of total team 785 00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:34,280 players or rush attempts to Gibbs, 21% for Monty. 786 00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:38,040 And I think what we're seeing like games where that ping pongs 787 00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:42,440 back, back and forth. It was a low game for Gibbs last 788 00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:46,240 week and but he's had games where he's higher as well. 789 00:46:47,240 --> 00:46:51,320 Yeah, but I, I guess if you look at it in terms of like expected 790 00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:53,720 points and stuff like that, you you can see it right here. 791 00:46:53,720 --> 00:46:58,440 He's 4 points lower than than than a Chan in expected points. 792 00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:00,760 So he really has to run hot on efficiency. 793 00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:03,880 So you're you are just not getting first round value there. 794 00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,240 You you. That needs to be a 2-3 turn pick 795 00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:11,040 for you to feel good about it. Yeah, well, we'll put there. 796 00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:14,200 There's a guy I didn't have a note on, but I feel like we have 797 00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:17,920 to touch on him. He also was the in the thumbnail 798 00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:21,280 for for this video, that's Chase Brown. 799 00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:26,600 He's living kind of right on the borderline of that 10 to 15 and 800 00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,000 15 to 20 expected fantasy points band. 801 00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:33,040 But you know, based on the workload that he saw this last 802 00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:36,280 week where he was an absolute bell cow, I believe he was over 803 00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:43,360 80% of the snaps, if I'm if I'm not mistaken, Just absolute 804 00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,560 elite workload and you get a great match up. 805 00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,200 You know, you're going against the Raiders where the Bengals 806 00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:53,120 are huge favourites. You know, fully expected them to 807 00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:56,400 take it to them. But I mean, that's the thing 808 00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:58,520 that you want to see though, when you get a player like Chase 809 00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:01,280 Brown and they get thrust into this opportunity where they get 810 00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,400 a bellcat workload, like, all right, can this guy do it? 811 00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:08,160 Like when he gets the workload, can he actually deliver and and 812 00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:10,720 Chase Brown smashed. And this isn't, it's not 813 00:48:10,720 --> 00:48:14,760 something where like, oh, well, Chase Brown's such a small back. 814 00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,280 He's never going to be able to sustain this workload. 815 00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:20,000 Like this is what he he's done this in college. 816 00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:24,280 Like he has a track record of being a bell cow type back. 817 00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:29,520 Now the Bengals did trade for Khalil Herbert today, but I I 818 00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:32,800 really wouldn't anticipate Khalil Herbert getting any more 819 00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:35,520 snaps than Zac Moss. So I think you're kind of your 820 00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:38,880 bottom end outcome for Chase Brown, you know, rest of season 821 00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:44,000 is just back to where he was with, with Zach Moss in the mix. 822 00:48:44,240 --> 00:48:47,440 I, I truly think that is like your, your lowest end of the 823 00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:50,440 range of outcomes and then your high end range of outcomes. 824 00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:55,040 I don't think you can expect him to get the the total number of 825 00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:57,560 touches that he got this last week and sustain that through 826 00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:00,760 the whole season. Right, he got 27 Russia times. 827 00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,680 Yeah. I think if you if you told me 828 00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:06,840 Chase Brown averages 20 opportunities though from here 829 00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:10,800 through the rest of the season, that seems pretty squarely in 830 00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:12,240 the range of outcomes like that that. 831 00:49:12,240 --> 00:49:13,720 Yeah, that's been pretty reasonable. 832 00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:17,120 Seems like probably slightly above a a median outcome, but 833 00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:20,600 like, I don't even think you're getting to like upper quartile. 834 00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,360 Like I think you're probably somewhere between the 50th and 835 00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:26,200 75th percentile outcome to get 20 touches a game. 836 00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:28,880 And and this is at a good offense. 837 00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:34,000 And yeah, I think it's wheels all the way up for Chase Brown. 838 00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:36,400 I don't. Are you at all concerned about 839 00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:39,080 the Khalil Herbert stuff or how do you read this situation? 840 00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,400 I mean, it's it that that part is hard. 841 00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:46,520 They didn't have to give up a lot for Herbert. 842 00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:52,560 But then the the and the thing about it is, is like there's no 843 00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:58,320 way the Bengals could have like could have said, OK, our plan is 844 00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:01,480 our young running back, we're just going to load them up with 845 00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,240 30 touch the game every game. What's the problem? 846 00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:07,320 Like that? That can't be the plan. 847 00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:08,960 And then he gets injured and you're fucked. 848 00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:14,720 So I think there's a there's some chance that he's kind of 849 00:50:14,720 --> 00:50:21,200 like they use what's his name Herbert as the kind of spell 850 00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:24,200 Chase Brown. I think that that's like that's 851 00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:30,600 a potential outcome. Or it could be that they, they, 852 00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:37,840 they are splitting, let's say 80% of snaps between them and, 853 00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:41,280 and you're at somewhere between, you're at like 40% snap rate for 854 00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:44,120 each like that. That's probably your, your low 855 00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:46,760 end. But I, I, I certain, I think 856 00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:50,240 that's like a really true, like Khalil Herbert has to come in 857 00:50:50,240 --> 00:50:52,040 and look really good for that to happen. 858 00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:55,720 Yeah. I think you're, you're probably, 859 00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:58,160 you're probably looking at somewhere between 15 and 20 860 00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:02,800 touches a game for for Chase Brown and maybe 10 to 15 for the 861 00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,440 for Herbert. Yeah. 862 00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:07,880 And I, I wouldn't be surprised if they, they take a couple 863 00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:11,600 weeks to kind of work Herbert up to that eventual, right. 864 00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:14,400 They're mixing in some of their other guys, you know? 865 00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:17,320 They they don't trust either of these guys. 866 00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:19,400 I don't think they'll trust either of these guys as pass 867 00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,720 blockers. So it'll be rush attempts and 868 00:51:22,720 --> 00:51:28,960 and and true routes, which it that that doesn't limit the Pi 869 00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:35,800 to those guys a little bit, but they I mean, it would be nuts to 870 00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:39,400 me if they didn't favor Chase Brown coming into at week 10 871 00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:42,560 like they have. To actually, I wanted to ask you 872 00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:46,640 about this because I, I felt the same way where it's not likely 873 00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:50,760 they, they're going to want to ask Chase Brown to do all of 874 00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:54,200 this pass blocking, you know, and him and him and Khalil 875 00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:57,920 Herbert both are not known for being pass blockers. 876 00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:00,840 Now Chase Brown, I just saw some stuff today where he doesn't 877 00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:05,560 actually grayed out as quite as terrible a a pass blocker as his 878 00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:08,520 reputation. They just never asked him to do 879 00:52:08,520 --> 00:52:09,840 it. Right. 880 00:52:10,240 --> 00:52:13,760 So I'm wondering, do you think that he sees more pass blocking 881 00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:17,160 reps or do the Bengals find an alternative solution to having 882 00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:19,240 their backs pass block? Are they they're? 883 00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:23,640 Gonna you know, they've had Trabeon in there and then 884 00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:25,560 they've been putting their tight ends in the backfield. 885 00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:27,960 Yeah, That, that that's what they did last week. 886 00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:31,960 And and now you got a little. A little wetter. 887 00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,560 Oh, I no, no problem. Hope you are are feeling better 888 00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:38,960 soon. But yeah, I I think you get the 889 00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:43,800 air call ACL tear and Kasiki isn't much of A blocker. 890 00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:47,680 So I mean, yeah, you'll probably end up with some random like 891 00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:51,640 Drew sample pass locking snaps and and things like that, but 892 00:52:52,200 --> 00:52:55,240 wouldn't wouldn't expect the what they ask of the backs to, 893 00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:58,000 you know, be a ton more pass blocking. 894 00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:00,960 It certainly will increase because someone's got to do it. 895 00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:04,160 But I don't think that's plan A is to have Chase Brown pass 896 00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:08,000 block a ton. Yeah, they, yeah, it it's 897 00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:10,080 definitely not plan A. It's it's not Plan B. 898 00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:14,080 It's not fun. See, they had like two other 899 00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:18,680 running backs that that were basically just pass blocking and 900 00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:21,200 and they had they gave, I think it was Drew Sample, they gave 901 00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:22,600 him a couple of snaps back there too. 902 00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:30,800 The the next guy I had a note on on this chart was JK Dobbins had 903 00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,120 his best game that he's had in a while. 904 00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:39,160 I think really the secret to getting JK Dobbins a good 905 00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:43,120 fantasy game was actually just pass the ball more. 906 00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:46,760 The Chargers have trended up in pass rate over the last few 907 00:53:46,760 --> 00:53:53,040 weeks and so all of a sudden you see JK Dobbins have a, a good 908 00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:56,720 and much more efficient day. And I, I think that was kind of 909 00:53:56,720 --> 00:54:00,240 the secret like just have the have the offense do better and 910 00:54:00,240 --> 00:54:02,000 it will be better for JK Dobbins. 911 00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:04,840 So definitely was encouraging to him. 912 00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:09,440 I, I really think that the, the Chargers trend towards the pass 913 00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:15,800 is a pretty positive thing for Dobbins and, and really like 914 00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:20,160 you're not actually seeing much of A threat at all from Vidal. 915 00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:24,280 And, and I don't really know if we can expect Edwards back this 916 00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:26,640 season. I haven't seen anything on him. 917 00:54:27,240 --> 00:54:30,280 So it's, it looks like it's JK Dobbins show and it, it looks 918 00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:33,240 like the Chargers have finally discovered the forward pass, 919 00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:36,840 which I think is an overall pretty, pretty good positive for 920 00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:37,880 him. Do you have do you have any 921 00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:40,840 insight to this JK Dobbins and Chargers situation? 922 00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:43,320 Yeah, the the only, I, I think you pretty much hit the nail on 923 00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:45,400 the head. The only thing I'd add is that 924 00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:47,720 he's also the primary pass protector. 925 00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:54,920 So them passing more is actually helpful for him because if if 926 00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:58,040 he's a primary pass protector then that that's his show. 927 00:54:59,720 --> 00:55:02,040 Yeah, that's a that's a good shout as well. 928 00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:07,400 OK, last note on this chart. So James Conner puts up a pretty 929 00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,640 good game on the ground. He's over 100 rushing yards, 930 00:55:09,640 --> 00:55:12,320 think he was 17 or 18 attempts, something like that. 931 00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:17,280 So really solid workload. However, the guy I mean, like if 932 00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,920 you were relying on James Conner to put up a big week in AGPP for 933 00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,960 you this week, I'm really sorry with how it ran out. 934 00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:27,880 The guy gets like flipped upside down and lands on his head at 935 00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:31,640 like the one yard line. And so he doesn't doesn't end up 936 00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:36,000 with a touchdown, loses some work to Trey Benson. 937 00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:39,920 And it wasn't just the IT wasn't just and I don't even believe 938 00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:42,880 that he got designated with like an injury or anything like that 939 00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:45,360 in this game. He just, you know, dude landed 940 00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:47,440 on his head. He got got a little banged up. 941 00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:50,960 But the Benson work came before that. 942 00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:55,080 Benson was was getting touches early in the game and he he 943 00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:59,800 looked much better than he had. Like Benson has looked not great 944 00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:03,080 up to this point in the season. And this was the first game I I 945 00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:06,280 thought that he looked serviceable. 946 00:56:07,240 --> 00:56:10,160 And then of course, you also get the explosive play from Amari D 947 00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:13,880 Mercado where that that takes a touchdown away as well. 948 00:56:14,240 --> 00:56:17,880 So I'm wondering, are you at all concerned about James Connor's 949 00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:20,440 work heading down the stretch here? 950 00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:28,720 So I think that's interesting. So I hadn't realized that Trey 951 00:56:28,720 --> 00:56:35,440 Benson had been getting touches prior to the injury because I'm 952 00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:40,000 looking at the splits here and kind of a lot of their, a lot of 953 00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:45,880 those kind of like secondary guys them working in it did seem 954 00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:49,200 related to the injury we have. I don't think we've gotten any 955 00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:55,440 news back from the injury. So I, I guess assuming he's 956 00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:59,040 fine, you have to expect that it's still the James Conner 957 00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:03,720 show. Yeah, I, I think that's kind of 958 00:57:03,720 --> 00:57:09,120 what you have to expect. Obviously concerning that they 959 00:57:09,240 --> 00:57:11,160 they put, they're playing Trey Benson early. 960 00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:13,800 He's looking good. They just saw James Conner get 961 00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:16,800 banged up, so maybe they want to protect him a little bit more. 962 00:57:17,440 --> 00:57:22,040 And I, I, I, I, I think your, your base case has to still be 963 00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:26,360 James Conner the rest of the way, but you've got a lot more 964 00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:29,280 risk in there like you, you, that's pretty substantial risk, 965 00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:33,480 I think. Yeah, so it looks like so the he 966 00:57:33,480 --> 00:57:36,880 did get checked for a concussion, but he came back 967 00:57:36,880 --> 00:57:40,680 into the game after halftime. Nothing doesn't look like 968 00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:44,920 anything on the injury report. And Gretsch actually wrote in 969 00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:50,680 stealing Signals this week that the the Trey Benson touches were 970 00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:54,040 deliberate and came early. And he got like, he, he 971 00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:58,400 basically he started a drive and got the majority of a drive and 972 00:57:58,400 --> 00:58:02,640 it was after he, he got the first touches on a drive. 973 00:58:03,760 --> 00:58:06,240 So it's not like he was spelling Connor. 974 00:58:06,240 --> 00:58:09,760 It's not like Connor had like. Just it was a Trey Benson drive. 975 00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:12,480 Yeah, that's very different. Yeah. 976 00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:15,600 Now I don't believe that Benson finished that entire drive. 977 00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:21,320 I think Connor did come in after a few plays of Benson, but 978 00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:24,680 again, it wasn't, hey, I'm just spelling James Conner because 979 00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:28,320 he's gassed after a few plays. It was to start the drive out 980 00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:30,160 here. We're giving Trey Benson a crack 981 00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:34,120 at it and he looked good. So definitely a spot to watch. 982 00:58:36,240 --> 00:58:39,320 It's it's one where I'm I'm at least a little bit concerned. 983 00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:43,400 Yeah, you have to be like that. I, I, I kind of miss some of 984 00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:47,320 this context and, and, and written it off as as injury 985 00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:53,040 related, but clearly it's not like if you look at a Trey 986 00:58:53,040 --> 00:58:58,600 Benson, so he was at a 25% useful snap rate and Emory, then 987 00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:03,560 Mccardo, he was at 19% and then James Conner at 46%. 988 00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:07,400 And so if you're telling me that even without the injury and and 989 00:59:07,400 --> 00:59:11,400 James Conner checking out for a few plays, he's still kind of 990 00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:19,480 capped at let's say, yeah, 60 and 65% snap rate like that, 991 00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:23,000 that's definitely a material like decline for him. 992 00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:31,840 And like he's at 46% useful snap rate versus 676867 in the last 993 00:59:31,840 --> 00:59:35,120 couple of weeks. So 20% useful snapshared 994 00:59:35,120 --> 00:59:38,880 decline, if you're telling me that's what we project should 995 00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:42,960 project going forward or something close to that, Yeah, 996 00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:46,120 that is a big concern. That is a big, big concern. 997 00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:50,360 Yeah, I, I don't know if I'm fully too like this is how it's 998 00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:52,160 going to be going forward. It's just, I think it's 999 00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:55,280 something to watch, certainly. Right, right. 1000 00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:59,280 But I I the framing almost seems like more than something to 1001 00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:04,040 watch though. Like, yeah, that all of those 1002 01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:06,200 kind of contextual things kind of feels like. 1003 01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:10,360 Oh. This looks like a material like 1004 01:00:11,120 --> 01:00:14,280 this improvement or or worsening of his of his of his role. 1005 01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:17,080 Yeah, we are. We're somewhere between 1006 01:00:17,080 --> 01:00:20,200 something to watch and Aren't You Worried, right. 1007 01:00:20,200 --> 01:00:23,040 We might already be to Aren't You Worried, but we're we're 1008 01:00:23,040 --> 01:00:25,440 trending in that direction. Right, right. 1009 01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:26,880 I think I think that's a good way to put it. 1010 01:00:27,640 --> 01:00:29,280 Let's let's move to the next chart. 1011 01:00:29,280 --> 01:00:33,160 I've got a couple notes here on some of these running backs. 1012 01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:40,120 So the first one, man, OK, so I think we let's talk about the, 1013 01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:44,320 the Bucks backfield in general. So the the Bucks with their 1014 01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:47,800 receiver injuries do look to still have a pretty functional 1015 01:00:47,800 --> 01:00:50,480 offense, even even against the Chiefs. 1016 01:00:50,480 --> 01:00:54,080 Like man, they were, they were toe to toe with the Chiefs. 1017 01:00:54,080 --> 01:00:56,400 Like they definitely could have won that game. 1018 01:00:57,560 --> 01:01:01,440 I, I really, I wanted to see him take it, but they, they just 1019 01:01:01,440 --> 01:01:03,480 couldn't, couldn't close it out at the end. 1020 01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:09,960 Rashad White, it just seems like he is running so absurdly hot on 1021 01:01:09,960 --> 01:01:12,200 touchdowns. It feels like every game for at 1022 01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:16,800 least the last three games that I remember, there is just a lane 1023 01:01:16,800 --> 01:01:18,600 so wide you could drive a truck through it. 1024 01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:22,680 When they get Rashad White a touch in the Green Zone and, and 1025 01:01:22,680 --> 01:01:24,560 he just gets to waltz into the end zone. 1026 01:01:25,480 --> 01:01:29,920 So I think a lot of the Rashad White production is being buoyed 1027 01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:33,880 by just absurd efficiency. And, and I don't think it's 1028 01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:36,640 necessarily efficiency that Rashad White is generating. 1029 01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:39,800 And you can kind of see that by the size of his bubble reflected 1030 01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:42,040 here. He's really not getting a lot of 1031 01:01:42,040 --> 01:01:43,760 expected fantasy points on the ground. 1032 01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,760 Most of it is coming through the air in the passing game. 1033 01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:51,120 And then he's got really good efficiency, but that's mostly on 1034 01:01:51,120 --> 01:01:53,560 the back of just converting touchdowns and getting 1035 01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:56,680 opportunities for touchdowns. But if you go back and watch the 1036 01:01:56,680 --> 01:02:00,840 Rashad White touchdowns, if you gave me a chance at all of them 1037 01:02:00,840 --> 01:02:03,400 now, you'd have to make me invulnerable. 1038 01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:06,520 Like I, I can't like get taken out due to injury after the 1039 01:02:06,520 --> 01:02:09,040 first NFL tackle, which is what would happen in real life. 1040 01:02:09,360 --> 01:02:12,320 But if you said that I'm invincible to injury and I got a 1041 01:02:12,320 --> 01:02:15,640 chance at all of these Rashad White touchdowns, I just the 1042 01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:19,280 ball is magically in my hands and I have the same lane to run 1043 01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:21,560 through. I think I convert 1 of them. 1044 01:02:21,840 --> 01:02:24,440 You know, like there, there are a couple where he's just got 1045 01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:26,040 nothing but green grass in front of him. 1046 01:02:26,040 --> 01:02:30,880 So he he's, you know, producing the most for fantasy, but I'm 1047 01:02:31,120 --> 01:02:35,800 definitely not feeling confident about him being an asset I can 1048 01:02:35,800 --> 01:02:38,920 rely on going forward. And so then that that takes me 1049 01:02:38,920 --> 01:02:44,360 to Bucky Irving. And man, Bucky is like the king 1050 01:02:44,360 --> 01:02:48,720 of making guys miss. Like my favorite part of a Bucky 1051 01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:52,080 run is the third missed tackle that he forces every it feels 1052 01:02:52,080 --> 01:02:56,040 like every run, like you need to have at least four guys that are 1053 01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:58,320 going to get to Bucky because the first three are going to 1054 01:02:58,320 --> 01:03:00,960 miss. The problem is it's very David 1055 01:03:00,960 --> 01:03:04,320 Montgomery esque in the way that he makes guys miss. 1056 01:03:04,320 --> 01:03:10,320 Like I I pointed this out while watching the game, it's watching 1057 01:03:10,320 --> 01:03:13,600 with my wife and I go, man, watch how many missed tackles he 1058 01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:17,600 forces here, but then just nothing happens afterwards. 1059 01:03:17,600 --> 01:03:21,120 He's got all this space and he does start to run it up field, 1060 01:03:21,600 --> 01:03:24,680 but he's just not that explosive and not that fast. 1061 01:03:24,760 --> 01:03:27,320 Now I don't want to poo poo on Bucky. 1062 01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:30,240 He's a super fun player to watch and I I want to be excited about 1063 01:03:30,240 --> 01:03:32,160 him. It might be the toe injury 1064 01:03:32,160 --> 01:03:35,520 that's hampering him a little bit, but to me he he does not 1065 01:03:35,520 --> 01:03:38,240 look fast or explosive or anything like that. 1066 01:03:38,600 --> 01:03:41,200 Super impressive at juking guys out of their socks. 1067 01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:44,560 It's just not a ton comes from it so. 1068 01:03:44,560 --> 01:03:48,080 I think he he might have seen one of his worst games for that 1069 01:03:48,080 --> 01:03:49,840 of the year. Yeah, like. 1070 01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:53,360 Like he, he does have a lot of games where he has a lot more 1071 01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:57,880 yardage than expected. So he and and and he's had big 1072 01:03:57,880 --> 01:04:01,120 runs. Maybe I, I, I, I don't know, 1073 01:04:01,120 --> 01:04:03,040 maybe he just didn't have them in this game. 1074 01:04:04,120 --> 01:04:07,880 I think the bigger point though is that the the Tampa Bay box is 1075 01:04:07,880 --> 01:04:11,800 a full blown at least in Week 9 was a full blown three-way 1076 01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:15,840 committee. And with with all of these guys 1077 01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:20,440 as snap counts like pretty, pretty limited, like useful snap 1078 01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:26,320 count for Rashad White, 36 percent, 31% for Bucky, 13% Sean 1079 01:04:26,320 --> 01:04:29,440 Tucker. And like Sean Tucker's snap rate 1080 01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:32,600 is 13%, but he doesn't none of that is blocking. 1081 01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:37,280 So him taking like 15% out of the pie and then the other guys 1082 01:04:37,280 --> 01:04:42,440 happen to split that up between them and that, that does make it 1083 01:04:42,440 --> 01:04:45,920 pretty tough. And I, I think that's the bigger 1084 01:04:45,920 --> 01:04:52,400 kind of issue where like last game, Rashad White had just 6.4 1085 01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:55,360 expected points. Now he, he scored the touchdown. 1086 01:04:55,360 --> 01:05:01,600 So he ended up with 1212 1/2. So like that's a usable week. 1087 01:05:02,440 --> 01:05:07,960 And but I, I agree. I, I, I, I, I'm concerned about 1088 01:05:07,960 --> 01:05:11,080 the backfield because like, I do think that it's just cut too 1089 01:05:11,080 --> 01:05:13,320 many ways. Like you can have weeks where 1090 01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:17,720 one of those guys get there and but it's it's definitely not an 1091 01:05:17,720 --> 01:05:21,800 enticing spot. Yeah, the, the guys I'm most 1092 01:05:21,800 --> 01:05:24,200 excited about. I I was really excited about 1093 01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:27,640 Bucky until Todd Bowles came out and said the toe injury is 1094 01:05:27,640 --> 01:05:30,080 something he's going to deal with for the whole season. 1095 01:05:30,360 --> 01:05:34,360 Now I might be, I might just be over fitting here and and you 1096 01:05:34,360 --> 01:05:37,640 know what I saw against Kansas City, I might be reading too 1097 01:05:37,640 --> 01:05:40,400 much into and attributing it to the toe sapping some 1098 01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:44,640 explosiveness or speed when in reality it was just, dude, this 1099 01:05:44,640 --> 01:05:47,880 is a really good run defense. Like he of course he's going to 1100 01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,320 look worse here than he has in the past. 1101 01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:54,720 So maybe, maybe I'm just being overly cautious about the toe. 1102 01:05:55,520 --> 01:05:57,240 He's had that a couple of weeks as well. 1103 01:05:58,280 --> 01:06:01,880 Yeah. The other thing though, is I'm 1104 01:06:02,080 --> 01:06:07,160 pretty interested in Sean Tucker at like, I think you really like 1105 01:06:07,160 --> 01:06:09,760 in a home league, you're not really holding Sean Tucker, you 1106 01:06:09,760 --> 01:06:12,560 know? But in FFPC, Sean Tucker is the 1107 01:06:12,640 --> 01:06:17,840 kind of guy that like I can, I can very much see the path where 1108 01:06:17,840 --> 01:06:20,680 you get, OK, Bucky Irving's going to have to miss this game 1109 01:06:20,680 --> 01:06:24,440 because of the toe. And then they they do the hot 1110 01:06:24,440 --> 01:06:27,160 hand thing. And it just so happens that Sean 1111 01:06:27,160 --> 01:06:31,480 Tucker is so much the superior runner to Rashad White that he 1112 01:06:31,480 --> 01:06:34,640 just basically ices him out for a game and and Rashad gets some 1113 01:06:34,640 --> 01:06:36,840 of the passing work that he's always going to have. 1114 01:06:37,840 --> 01:06:40,720 But you just get Sean Tucker with all the carries. 1115 01:06:40,720 --> 01:06:45,640 And I mean, he, he looks like with the reported athleticism 1116 01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:48,240 that we had from Sean Tucker, we never got like official numbers 1117 01:06:48,240 --> 01:06:51,520 on him because of the health stuff around him, around the 1118 01:06:51,520 --> 01:06:55,920 combine for him. But I mean, he's allegedly a sub 1119 01:06:55,920 --> 01:06:59,080 4, three guy And, and he's a big boy too. 1120 01:06:59,080 --> 01:07:02,560 It's not like he's one of these like sub 200 pounders that's sub 1121 01:07:02,560 --> 01:07:05,240 4/3. He he's, he's quite large. 1122 01:07:05,920 --> 01:07:08,520 So I, I don't know, he's interesting to me. 1123 01:07:08,520 --> 01:07:11,840 And he definitely seems like one of those guys where we look back 1124 01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:15,800 on this season and it, it's like the Rashad Penny playoff run of 1125 01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:18,600 a few seasons ago, right? Where it's just like, man, 1126 01:07:18,600 --> 01:07:21,840 remember when Rashad Petty came out of nowhere and that was just 1127 01:07:21,840 --> 01:07:24,600 the guy you had to have to win any money that season? 1128 01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:29,800 So if if I had to pick an early, like really thin bet to be the 1129 01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:32,880 guy you need in the playoffs, Sean Tucker's a fun one. 1130 01:07:32,880 --> 01:07:36,240 That's that's all I'm saying. Yeah, yeah, he's definitely like 1131 01:07:36,560 --> 01:07:39,720 with with the with the value and the overall play. 1132 01:07:40,160 --> 01:07:44,080 If one of those guys got down, goes down and then it's a 5050 1133 01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:47,240 split that that that becomes very interesting. 1134 01:07:47,240 --> 01:07:49,040 And he's, he's definitely worth stash. 1135 01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:54,160 I had two more notes here. One of them I'm just going to 1136 01:07:54,160 --> 01:07:57,200 say very quickly just so we can move on to the next chart. 1137 01:07:57,840 --> 01:08:01,160 Cam Akers is now officially the RV 2 in Minnesota. 1138 01:08:01,440 --> 01:08:05,800 He entirely iced out Tracer, not Tracer and Ty Chandler. 1139 01:08:06,200 --> 01:08:08,920 Ty Chandler literally did not play an offensive snap, only 1140 01:08:08,920 --> 01:08:12,600 played on special teams. It is all the way Jover for Ty 1141 01:08:12,600 --> 01:08:17,560 Chandler, unfortunately. So that's you know, that's the 1142 01:08:17,560 --> 01:08:20,120 breaks. All your Ty Chandler basketball 1143 01:08:20,120 --> 01:08:24,760 shares are very dead barring. Right, and Tam Akers isn't 1144 01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:26,600 usable either. It's more about. 1145 01:08:27,399 --> 01:08:29,560 Aaron Jones. Aaron Jones is just a great 1146 01:08:29,560 --> 01:08:31,520 pick. And yeah, and Ty Chandler is 1147 01:08:31,520 --> 01:08:35,279 dead. The last note I had was Kareem 1148 01:08:35,279 --> 01:08:39,000 Hunt and Kareem Hunt. I mean he's all the way in the 1149 01:08:39,000 --> 01:08:42,920 bottom right hand corner over 20 expected fantasy points a game 1150 01:08:43,160 --> 01:08:45,120 and it's all on the ground, baby. 1151 01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:47,920 Kareem Hunt. Let me hang on. 1152 01:08:47,920 --> 01:08:49,520 Let me make sure I I do this right. 1153 01:08:49,920 --> 01:08:53,399 I've got the the two way player comparisons here. 1154 01:08:54,479 --> 01:08:57,439 He is the Ezekiel Elliott of Kyron Williams. 1155 01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:03,880 They they do that right. Yeah, yeah, it's gross, but he's 1156 01:09:03,880 --> 01:09:06,600 certainly getting certainly getting the volume. 1157 01:09:08,279 --> 01:09:12,680 It is what it is. It's disgusting, but the the 1158 01:09:12,680 --> 01:09:14,720 efficiency fine enough on that kind of volume. 1159 01:09:15,080 --> 01:09:17,840 Yeah, he he does. He falls forward too, like he's 1160 01:09:18,279 --> 01:09:20,399 he's doing exactly what the Chiefs need. 1161 01:09:20,399 --> 01:09:24,319 Like for real life football. Kareem Hutt is awesome for the 1162 01:09:24,319 --> 01:09:29,600 Chiefs and and for fantasy. Like the raw, nasty volume is 1163 01:09:30,240 --> 01:09:32,680 perfectly fine. Like, yeah, it doesn't. 1164 01:09:32,680 --> 01:09:34,640 It doesn't have to be sexy. He's going to get there. 1165 01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:40,840 Yeah, agreed, agreed. And so here we have our kind of 1166 01:09:40,840 --> 01:09:47,520 tight end chart and, and then I, I guess the, the, the snap rate 1167 01:09:47,800 --> 01:09:51,640 kind of, or the, the rat rate kind of lines up almost 1168 01:09:51,640 --> 01:09:56,360 perfectly with, with fantasy points this year or projected or 1169 01:09:56,360 --> 01:09:58,960 how we projected the fantasy points going forward. 1170 01:09:59,720 --> 01:10:03,680 I know you had a note that that grant that, that that's a, yeah, 1171 01:10:04,160 --> 01:10:07,080 a product of Dallas Goddard and missing time. 1172 01:10:07,080 --> 01:10:11,120 As soon as Dallas Goddard is back, he is back-to-back to the 1173 01:10:11,120 --> 01:10:17,600 bench, back to riding point. And then your your I. 1174 01:10:18,560 --> 01:10:20,840 I guess your first note was about Hunter Henry. 1175 01:10:22,160 --> 01:10:27,280 Yeah, so I think Connor Henry is in a you know, he's got a pretty 1176 01:10:27,280 --> 01:10:30,360 interesting role. He's I, I had a note just about, 1177 01:10:30,400 --> 01:10:32,680 you know, the the cream is rising to the top here on this 1178 01:10:32,680 --> 01:10:34,640 tight end chart. Like all these guys at the top 1179 01:10:34,640 --> 01:10:38,120 are, are pretty much like the the best guys in the position. 1180 01:10:38,520 --> 01:10:41,800 And then you got Hunter Henry in here kind of sneaking his way in 1181 01:10:41,800 --> 01:10:44,880 above guys that I would I'd have ranked above him, you know, week 1182 01:10:44,880 --> 01:10:46,840 to week of Evan Ingram and Jake Ferguson. 1183 01:10:47,440 --> 01:10:51,840 But Hunter Henry's is starting to be pretty interesting it to 1184 01:10:51,840 --> 01:10:52,880 me. The way I'm reading this 1185 01:10:52,880 --> 01:10:56,200 Patriots offense is Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas are probably 1186 01:10:56,200 --> 01:10:58,280 the two primary receivers for Drake May. 1187 01:10:58,960 --> 01:11:02,440 Now granted the Patriots matchups have been their 1188 01:11:02,440 --> 01:11:05,040 schedule has been pretty, pretty rough. 1189 01:11:06,160 --> 01:11:09,920 And so this week again, not a great matchup. 1190 01:11:10,320 --> 01:11:14,760 But next week, week 11 and week 12 both, both matchups I'm 1191 01:11:14,760 --> 01:11:19,080 pretty interested in and with the way that this week is where 1192 01:11:19,080 --> 01:11:23,360 it's, you know, it's a pretty thin week with the byes and some 1193 01:11:23,360 --> 01:11:27,760 injuries, I definitely think you could do worse than a Hunter 1194 01:11:27,760 --> 01:11:30,840 Henry dart throw. He's probably a guy that I'll 1195 01:11:30,840 --> 01:11:36,360 end up with a decent amount of in dog bowl drafts just 'cause 1196 01:11:36,360 --> 01:11:41,040 he'll he'll probably be free and and I think he's perfectly fine 1197 01:11:41,040 --> 01:11:45,320 for that price. The next guy I had a note on was 1198 01:11:45,320 --> 01:11:50,040 Theo Johnson, who is flashing a little bit, you know, climbing 1199 01:11:50,040 --> 01:11:54,480 up the chart here. 8.6 A .15% targets per route run. 1200 01:11:56,360 --> 01:12:00,120 You know, it's going to be hard prying volume away from Malik 1201 01:12:00,120 --> 01:12:04,640 neighbors and also it's going to be hard to put up really 1202 01:12:04,640 --> 01:12:09,120 relevant fantasy weeks when your team is -13% PROE like the 1203 01:12:09,120 --> 01:12:14,080 Giants were this last week. But Theo Johnson had a really 1204 01:12:14,080 --> 01:12:16,680 nice athletic catch for a touchdown. 1205 01:12:16,680 --> 01:12:20,000 Like he, he's at the very least like flashing the things that we 1206 01:12:20,000 --> 01:12:24,520 were excited about. Hey 27% target Sprite run 81 at 1207 01:12:24,600 --> 01:12:28,440 air yards on 6 targets. Pretty good. 1208 01:12:29,080 --> 01:12:32,920 He's definitely interesting. And then did you have anything 1209 01:12:32,920 --> 01:12:35,160 else to say about Theo or should I move on to I? 1210 01:12:35,160 --> 01:12:38,080 I think you'd like this other rookie tight end even more than 1211 01:12:38,160 --> 01:12:41,360 Theo. Yeah, I think they're, I think 1212 01:12:41,360 --> 01:12:42,920 they're both interesting. Yeah. 1213 01:12:42,920 --> 01:12:47,480 The the next guy is Jetavion Sanders, Jetavion Sanders. 1214 01:12:47,880 --> 01:12:55,640 So he, he is. So he's at 25% target threat run 1215 01:12:55,640 --> 01:13:01,840 last game and that's a that compares to 17% on the full 1216 01:13:01,840 --> 01:13:04,640 year. And his his routes have 1217 01:13:04,640 --> 01:13:14,680 definitely been ticking up. I mean, I guess as as the the 1218 01:13:14,680 --> 01:13:17,640 Panthers seem to be coalescing around these kind of young 1219 01:13:17,640 --> 01:13:22,440 rookies. He's interesting. 1220 01:13:22,440 --> 01:13:27,520 Like, I don't, I think the way I put your Tavian is like, if 1221 01:13:27,520 --> 01:13:30,800 you're, if you need someone to start a tight end, like he's 1222 01:13:30,800 --> 01:13:34,360 playable in a tight end spot. I don't think I'd flex him even 1223 01:13:34,360 --> 01:13:38,280 on FFPC unless like you have to be really, really desperate to 1224 01:13:38,280 --> 01:13:40,640 play Jose Von Sanders in your flex spot. 1225 01:13:40,640 --> 01:13:44,280 But I think if you like, let's say George Kittle is your tight 1226 01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:47,720 end, you don't really have a backup and his bye week is 1227 01:13:47,720 --> 01:13:50,160 coming up, you can play Jose Von Sanders. 1228 01:13:50,400 --> 01:13:56,080 I think he's I I don't he's probably not min priced and but 1229 01:13:56,120 --> 01:13:59,600 on the DraftKings. But as one of those low low 1230 01:13:59,600 --> 01:14:01,880 price tight ends, I think he can work too. 1231 01:14:03,720 --> 01:14:06,360 Yeah, he's definitely fun to watch. 1232 01:14:06,920 --> 01:14:09,360 And yeah, pretty much agree with everything you said there. 1233 01:14:09,960 --> 01:14:14,960 The last guy I had a note on on this chart is Jonnu Smith and 1234 01:14:14,960 --> 01:14:17,840 he's he's definitely been trending up lately. 1235 01:14:18,160 --> 01:14:22,240 I kind of thought that his increase in usage might stop 1236 01:14:22,240 --> 01:14:26,200 with Tua got back because the offense would be more capable of 1237 01:14:26,680 --> 01:14:30,480 attacking further down the field and not have to rely on, you 1238 01:14:30,480 --> 01:14:33,160 know, as much like scheme stuff to Janu. 1239 01:14:33,800 --> 01:14:36,480 Turns out they just like utilizing Janu. 1240 01:14:37,680 --> 01:14:41,600 He's had a a pretty strong targets per route run recently 1241 01:14:41,600 --> 01:14:45,040 these last few weeks. They love check down Sir Johnny 1242 01:14:45,040 --> 01:14:49,960 Smith it it doesn't seem to reduce that much real football 1243 01:14:49,960 --> 01:14:52,800 wise, but it's it's been usable for fantasy. 1244 01:14:53,960 --> 01:14:57,360 Yeah, he he isn't on the field as much as you'd want to, you 1245 01:14:57,800 --> 01:15:00,120 know, to be like a really strong play. 1246 01:15:01,440 --> 01:15:04,840 But I, I do think that, you know, they they're gonna keep 1247 01:15:05,120 --> 01:15:08,200 looks like they're gonna keep getting him pretty consistent 1248 01:15:08,200 --> 01:15:13,160 targets when he is on the field. And you know, this offense is 1249 01:15:13,200 --> 01:15:16,520 well designed enough that there's going to be touchdowns 1250 01:15:16,520 --> 01:15:18,400 to go around. So I like him as like a a 1251 01:15:18,440 --> 01:15:22,160 touchdown upside guy where you can rely on him getting schemed 1252 01:15:22,160 --> 01:15:26,680 a couple targets in a game. So he he's definitely he's on 1253 01:15:26,680 --> 01:15:30,280 the radar as you know, like a dart throw tight end, right, 1254 01:15:31,200 --> 01:15:35,400 right. Yeah, agreed. 1255 01:15:35,600 --> 01:15:39,720 And checking the notes. So I, I think that that that, 1256 01:15:39,720 --> 01:15:43,000 that that wraps us up. For the the backup. 1257 01:15:43,040 --> 01:15:51,960 Chart now so backup tight ends so I I mean your your note was 1258 01:15:51,960 --> 01:15:56,840 that Hawk is kind of slowly been worked back in it's it's funny 1259 01:15:56,840 --> 01:16:03,240 that they said no pitch count full reps right away and you 1260 01:16:03,240 --> 01:16:08,200 know being on the field for 60% of drop backs coming off in ACL 1261 01:16:08,200 --> 01:16:13,080 surgery is actually pretty good. But it's just funny how much 1262 01:16:13,080 --> 01:16:15,920 they like just miss that us. Yeah, yeah. 1263 01:16:15,960 --> 01:16:21,520 I I think to me I'm not particularly interested in 1264 01:16:21,840 --> 01:16:25,280 playing it before I see it in a a spot like this. 1265 01:16:25,600 --> 01:16:29,080 No, no. Because it's different than it's 1266 01:16:29,080 --> 01:16:31,560 different than like the rookies where you're playing it before 1267 01:16:31,560 --> 01:16:34,440 you see it, where the range of outcomes is so wide and there's 1268 01:16:34,440 --> 01:16:38,160 just so much unknown where this feels like it's going to be more 1269 01:16:38,160 --> 01:16:42,080 of kind of a gradual ramp up. He's going to, you know, week 1270 01:16:42,080 --> 01:16:44,160 over week get more and more snaps. 1271 01:16:45,000 --> 01:16:48,640 I think it's going to be hard for them to go, hey, or 60% 1272 01:16:48,640 --> 01:16:50,680 snaps TJ Hawkinson this last week. 1273 01:16:50,880 --> 01:16:54,880 Now it's 100% snaps TJ Hawkinson and he's the focal point of the 1274 01:16:54,880 --> 01:16:57,560 offense. Double digit targets, like I 1275 01:16:57,560 --> 01:17:00,600 think it's the kind of thing where we'll probably have a a 1276 01:17:00,600 --> 01:17:05,160 pretty clear ramp up for him. And so it's it's not something 1277 01:17:05,160 --> 01:17:07,640 where I feel like I need to play it before I see it, you know, 1278 01:17:07,680 --> 01:17:11,120 for for fear of missing out on the big explosion game. 1279 01:17:12,720 --> 01:17:15,480 The other guy that I had a note on here was Mike Kasiki. 1280 01:17:15,680 --> 01:17:17,720 We talked about it briefly earlier. 1281 01:17:18,480 --> 01:17:21,320 You got a couple factors here. Number one, you get the air call 1282 01:17:21,320 --> 01:17:25,000 ACL tear. So the great Eric all battle of 1283 01:17:25,000 --> 01:17:28,840 who is more in on Eric all ends with a whimper here. 1284 01:17:30,120 --> 01:17:33,800 And and so now you have Gesicki, who is very clearly going to be 1285 01:17:33,800 --> 01:17:35,240 their primary receiving tight end. 1286 01:17:35,480 --> 01:17:39,240 They're still going to mix in Tanner Hudson and I, I forget 1287 01:17:39,240 --> 01:17:42,760 the name of their third tight end, but he he'll mix in too. 1288 01:17:43,840 --> 01:17:46,200 That's that's kind of what the Bengals do. 1289 01:17:46,840 --> 01:17:50,680 But Gesicki looks very much like the next man up when T Higgins 1290 01:17:50,680 --> 01:17:53,800 is inactive. And yeah. 1291 01:17:53,880 --> 01:17:57,720 What's what's interesting is that he only had a 61% route 1292 01:17:57,720 --> 01:18:03,040 rate in week 9, which like that's very surprising given his 1293 01:18:03,040 --> 01:18:07,000 production, but he still got 6 targets for 90 area yards. 1294 01:18:07,680 --> 01:18:11,120 So he that's, I guess 24% targets per hour run 50 and A 1295 01:18:11,120 --> 01:18:16,520 dot. And so I think it feels like 1296 01:18:16,520 --> 01:18:19,640 he's kind of like a he's he's got this like specialty niche 1297 01:18:19,640 --> 01:18:22,640 role in the offence. Like they're only asking him to 1298 01:18:22,640 --> 01:18:26,920 do exactly the things that Mike Kasiki is good at or reasonable. 1299 01:18:26,920 --> 01:18:30,640 That and and Joe Burrow is good enough for that to actually work 1300 01:18:30,640 --> 01:18:34,920 out decently for fantasy. Yeah, he, I mean, if you look at 1301 01:18:34,920 --> 01:18:38,440 his chart, he, he has zero pass blocking steps on here. 1302 01:18:38,440 --> 01:18:40,320 They're only having him run routes. 1303 01:18:41,640 --> 01:18:43,840 He's and and he's deeper down the field. 1304 01:18:43,960 --> 01:18:46,120 You know, he's not, he's not just getting like these little 1305 01:18:46,120 --> 01:18:48,440 rinky dink targets. They're, they're further down 1306 01:18:48,440 --> 01:18:53,240 the field. But yeah, he's, he's not going 1307 01:18:53,240 --> 01:18:57,240 to be a full time player, but at least they are, they're getting 1308 01:18:57,240 --> 01:18:58,960 him targets and they're getting him down the field. 1309 01:18:58,960 --> 01:19:00,960 They're not making him block or anything like that. 1310 01:19:01,200 --> 01:19:04,440 I'm pulling up. I want to look at his, his snap 1311 01:19:04,440 --> 01:19:07,880 side position. And yeah, Kasiki lines up in the 1312 01:19:07,880 --> 01:19:11,040 slot far more than he lines up in line. 1313 01:19:11,040 --> 01:19:16,400 And he, in fact, he lines up out wide just as much or more than 1314 01:19:16,400 --> 01:19:20,320 he lines up in line. So Mike Kasiki is a tight end in 1315 01:19:20,320 --> 01:19:23,160 name only. He's, he's not actually a tight 1316 01:19:23,160 --> 01:19:25,240 end. He's, he's a big slot receiver 1317 01:19:25,240 --> 01:19:28,200 for them. And so that's, that's really the 1318 01:19:28,200 --> 01:19:30,840 way that you should treat him and view him. 1319 01:19:30,920 --> 01:19:33,480 He he's a wide receiver that's not going to run all the routes, 1320 01:19:34,440 --> 01:19:37,360 but he does have a a pretty good A dot and a pretty solid targets 1321 01:19:37,360 --> 01:19:38,080 per route. Run. 1322 01:19:39,000 --> 01:19:43,360 You remember to note that they were going to make Jermaine 1323 01:19:43,360 --> 01:19:45,840 Burton, like, a focal point on the offense. 1324 01:19:46,160 --> 01:19:47,440 Yeah. And then they had to completely 1325 01:19:47,440 --> 01:19:49,560 change at the last minute. I wonder if they were, like, 1326 01:19:49,560 --> 01:19:53,120 just looking around the room. Mike Gesicki do. 1327 01:19:53,560 --> 01:19:56,360 You. Yeah, yeah, I definitely, 1328 01:19:56,360 --> 01:19:59,040 definitely could be. But yeah, I'm. 1329 01:19:59,040 --> 01:20:03,920 I'm into the idea of attacking Gesicki again if. 1330 01:20:04,360 --> 01:20:08,440 You don't have any T Higgins for this Thursday night game. 1331 01:20:09,000 --> 01:20:12,360 Now the interesting thing is like on a on a showdown slate, 1332 01:20:12,720 --> 01:20:16,120 you've got this Mike Kasiki was the he was the chalk tied in 1333 01:20:16,120 --> 01:20:19,080 this last Sunday too. So it's not like the performance 1334 01:20:19,080 --> 01:20:21,520 went under the radar. Everyone is aware of the Mike 1335 01:20:21,520 --> 01:20:25,560 Kasiki chalk eruption. And so if you end up with T out 1336 01:20:25,560 --> 01:20:29,920 again, I, I almost wonder if Kasiki is just going to be so 1337 01:20:29,920 --> 01:20:33,920 chalky that it's hard to even play him. 1338 01:20:33,920 --> 01:20:36,600 Like I wonder if he'll get to the point where it's bad chalk 1339 01:20:37,080 --> 01:20:41,520 and you end up just fading that and you're relying on. 1340 01:20:41,520 --> 01:20:43,640 Right. That's a volatile kind of like 1341 01:20:43,640 --> 01:20:48,720 usage profile where you hit that top end and if it's gonna be 1342 01:20:48,720 --> 01:20:53,040 very popular then you bet the other end of the the volatility 1343 01:20:53,040 --> 01:20:55,840 spectrum. Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm literally 1344 01:20:55,840 --> 01:20:58,440 just saying this for my benefit right now, but this is just to 1345 01:20:58,440 --> 01:21:01,400 help me remember when I'm doing my showdown process on Thursday. 1346 01:21:01,640 --> 01:21:05,680 I don't really want to mess with the Gasiki projection too much, 1347 01:21:05,680 --> 01:21:07,800 provided it it's a reasonable projection. 1348 01:21:08,960 --> 01:21:13,080 Really what I want to do is I just want to make sure that my 1349 01:21:13,080 --> 01:21:17,520 fields that I'm using to send against have a reasonable amount 1350 01:21:17,520 --> 01:21:19,840 of Kasiki in them. And I think that's reasonable 1351 01:21:19,840 --> 01:21:22,680 ownership. And then I just want to trust 1352 01:21:22,800 --> 01:21:26,760 what my Sims say on that. And if I end up with a bunch of 1353 01:21:26,760 --> 01:21:29,520 Kasiki still, because the projection is good enough into 1354 01:21:29,520 --> 01:21:31,720 the ownership, I'll roll with it. 1355 01:21:32,040 --> 01:21:34,720 And if I end up fading a sickie, I I want to roll with that too. 1356 01:21:34,720 --> 01:21:38,360 It it's something where I don't want to let my dumb human brain 1357 01:21:38,560 --> 01:21:41,080 try to be like, oh, it's bad chalk try to get off it. 1358 01:21:41,080 --> 01:21:44,080 Like I just want to make sure that my inputs are correct on it 1359 01:21:44,360 --> 01:21:46,280 and then I need. To trust the process from there, 1360 01:21:46,280 --> 01:21:56,160 but makes sense all right. We're we're in the home stretch. 1361 01:21:56,400 --> 01:21:59,920 We're we're down to down to the swing states wide receiver 1362 01:21:59,920 --> 01:22:02,560 charts here. So yeah, you're. 1363 01:22:02,600 --> 01:22:06,600 Yeah, looking at wide receiver charts, your first note was kind 1364 01:22:06,600 --> 01:22:09,120 of a question. Does Cooper Cup have his old 1365 01:22:09,120 --> 01:22:13,880 world back or was this game just a product of the puka or puka 1366 01:22:14,480 --> 01:22:17,120 ejection? So the biggest thing that every 1367 01:22:17,120 --> 01:22:22,560 time I look at a Cooper Cup stats and his A dot just gets 1368 01:22:22,560 --> 01:22:28,600 lower and lower and lower. And I, I am I don't want to like 1369 01:22:28,600 --> 01:22:34,680 get too carried away, but I get AI get a tough time coming away 1370 01:22:34,680 --> 01:22:37,440 with the idea like that. This is just a player who's at 1371 01:22:37,440 --> 01:22:41,760 the end of their career and who's kind of like buoyed by 1372 01:22:41,760 --> 01:22:45,120 playing with Matt Stafford, who's like a really good 1373 01:22:45,120 --> 01:22:47,480 quarterback. And we'll have high volume 1374 01:22:47,480 --> 01:22:51,800 counts. And so he did get 35% target 1375 01:22:51,800 --> 01:22:58,720 spread run in week 9, but that's on 14 targets with a 5.4 A dot. 1376 01:22:59,640 --> 01:23:04,480 And like this just keeps getting lower and lower. 1377 01:23:06,520 --> 01:23:09,480 It's tough for me to escape the conclusion that he just much 1378 01:23:09,480 --> 01:23:12,800 more limited than he was in the prime of his career. 1379 01:23:13,800 --> 01:23:15,320 That's still scoring fantasy points. 1380 01:23:15,360 --> 01:23:27,040 But I I think that puka has to be like the the, the predominant 1381 01:23:27,040 --> 01:23:30,680 predominant main driver of this offense, passing production. 1382 01:23:31,360 --> 01:23:35,280 Yeah, prior to the puka ejection cup was still leading in 1383 01:23:35,280 --> 01:23:38,600 targets. So I, I, we, we talked about 1384 01:23:38,600 --> 01:23:44,040 this last week where we said, you know, the, the puka outcome 1385 01:23:44,040 --> 01:23:47,400 from that first week back for both of them, that wasn't 1386 01:23:47,400 --> 01:23:50,200 necessarily like this is always the way it's going to be going 1387 01:23:50,200 --> 01:23:51,960 forward. And there's probably some 1388 01:23:51,960 --> 01:23:56,080 volatility there. And, and, you know, I wish that 1389 01:23:56,080 --> 01:23:58,320 we had gotten the full game here from puka so he could have seen 1390 01:23:58,320 --> 01:24:01,120 it play out. But I, I'm pretty sure, you 1391 01:24:01,120 --> 01:24:06,520 know, with the, the 1/2 that we did get and he played most of 1392 01:24:06,520 --> 01:24:08,360 the first half before he got ejected. 1393 01:24:09,520 --> 01:24:12,840 So, so with that, we did see it, you know, trending to be a, a 1394 01:24:12,840 --> 01:24:15,400 pretty strong cup game. I don't think it would have 1395 01:24:15,400 --> 01:24:18,480 changed a ton in the second-half, like maybe a little 1396 01:24:18,480 --> 01:24:21,160 bit. But I I think my take away here 1397 01:24:21,160 --> 01:24:25,400 is I don't want to be overly confident that it is puka over 1398 01:24:25,400 --> 01:24:27,520 cup or cup over puka. How many? 1399 01:24:27,760 --> 01:24:33,000 Just how many 14 target 5.6 A dot games can like he get like 1400 01:24:33,000 --> 01:24:35,040 Cooper? Cooper Cup, a lot of them like 1401 01:24:35,280 --> 01:24:39,400 any any other receiver like well, like Malik neighbors also 1402 01:24:39,400 --> 01:24:42,720 a lot of them, you know, like so in in these certain 1403 01:24:42,720 --> 01:24:46,280 circumstances where like either you're the only show in town, 1404 01:24:46,280 --> 01:24:50,720 like Malik neighbors or you're Cooper Cup and Matthew Stafford 1405 01:24:50,720 --> 01:24:54,080 is your quarterback. Like those those can happen. 1406 01:24:54,680 --> 01:24:57,840 I mean, like even Jamar Chase, like Jamar Chase had what like 1407 01:24:57,920 --> 01:25:00,440 11 targets, 27 area yards this week. 1408 01:25:00,520 --> 01:25:03,480 Is that something like that? So. 1409 01:25:04,760 --> 01:25:07,400 I don't, yeah. But Chase has had games where, 1410 01:25:07,400 --> 01:25:09,480 like, they've targeted him deep down the field, right? 1411 01:25:09,520 --> 01:25:11,040 Right. That just hasn't happened for 1412 01:25:11,040 --> 01:25:13,840 Cooper Cook this year. No, I I, I agree. 1413 01:25:13,840 --> 01:25:18,560 I'm, I'm just saying like, I think that this type of target 1414 01:25:18,560 --> 01:25:23,040 volume and, and these types of targets are sustainable for 1415 01:25:23,040 --> 01:25:25,360 Cooper Cup. And, and yes, like when you're 1416 01:25:25,360 --> 01:25:29,120 getting stuff like that, it's just going to be a lower ceiling 1417 01:25:29,120 --> 01:25:33,320 than the guys that are like, it's just while he's still 1418 01:25:33,320 --> 01:25:36,920 sitting here in the same neighborhood as Justin Jefferson 1419 01:25:36,920 --> 01:25:40,680 Malik neighbors. You know, it's, it's not the 1420 01:25:40,680 --> 01:25:43,920 same type of ceiling outcome as those guys. 1421 01:25:44,440 --> 01:25:48,000 Like a Cooper Cup ceiling is probably like a 30 pointer where 1422 01:25:48,000 --> 01:25:54,520 he gets 2 touchdowns, 12 catches, you know, and 80 yards 1423 01:25:54,520 --> 01:25:58,720 or what, what have you, you know, so I don't know. 1424 01:25:58,720 --> 01:26:04,280 I I'm like, I don't want to, to look a a fantasy point gift 1425 01:26:04,280 --> 01:26:07,320 horse in the mouth with Cooper Cup and be like, I can't play 1426 01:26:07,320 --> 01:26:08,800 you because you're you're low A dot. 1427 01:26:08,880 --> 01:26:12,160 You're you're just a bunch of targets low A dot PPR scam. 1428 01:26:12,160 --> 01:26:16,360 It's like, yeah, but that can like what if what if we just 1429 01:26:16,360 --> 01:26:21,800 kind of think of Cooper Cup as much better, less washed Adam 1430 01:26:21,800 --> 01:26:26,960 Thielen from the first half of last season where just like, 1431 01:26:27,280 --> 01:26:29,880 yeah, they like he's just going to get a bunch of targets and 1432 01:26:29,880 --> 01:26:33,040 like he'll score a touchdown here and there and he'll he'll 1433 01:26:33,040 --> 01:26:37,520 accumulate and like. Yeah, I I mean, I guess that 1434 01:26:37,520 --> 01:26:39,080 that that's going to happen in games. 1435 01:26:39,080 --> 01:26:41,320 We're going to get games like this where that just happens. 1436 01:26:42,160 --> 01:26:47,120 It just is is is that going to is like is that going to be 1437 01:26:47,120 --> 01:26:49,080 good? Is that going to be good enough 1438 01:26:49,080 --> 01:26:53,920 for the Rams over like a 5-6 like how many we've got 7 game. 1439 01:26:53,920 --> 01:26:58,720 We've got eight games left. So two months left to week 17. 1440 01:27:01,000 --> 01:27:03,960 I, I think, I think it's fine like to pay to play at a cheap 1441 01:27:03,960 --> 01:27:09,720 price, but it, it does, it does seem clear to me that we've had 1442 01:27:09,720 --> 01:27:14,280 like a clear like worsening of, of, of his, of his play. 1443 01:27:15,080 --> 01:27:17,680 Yeah, I, I think that's reasonable. 1444 01:27:19,000 --> 01:27:23,480 The next guy I had a note on was Darnell Moody and he's one where 1445 01:27:23,480 --> 01:27:27,880 I really feel like I've had trouble kind of pegging him down 1446 01:27:28,000 --> 01:27:31,200 this season and, and getting a a good understanding of the 1447 01:27:31,200 --> 01:27:34,440 profile and like what is a a reasonable range of outcomes for 1448 01:27:34,440 --> 01:27:37,320 him week over week coming into the season. 1449 01:27:37,560 --> 01:27:41,400 I think most of the people that, you know, consume the same 1450 01:27:41,400 --> 01:27:44,560 content that we consume and and think about the game Similarly, 1451 01:27:45,000 --> 01:27:48,280 we're pretty out on Darnell Moody where, you know, guy had 1452 01:27:48,280 --> 01:27:52,120 one good season a couple years ago, just kind of left him for 1453 01:27:52,120 --> 01:27:55,800 dead moving to the Falcons where sure, he might be the wide 1454 01:27:55,800 --> 01:27:58,480 receiver too, but he might end up being the third option behind 1455 01:27:58,480 --> 01:28:01,240 Pitts at London. It turns out that's not the 1456 01:28:01,240 --> 01:28:03,640 case. Like he's very clearly the 1457 01:28:03,640 --> 01:28:08,840 second option in this passing attack now early in the season 1458 01:28:08,840 --> 01:28:11,200 where Drake London was having just a little bit of a slow 1459 01:28:11,200 --> 01:28:15,440 start just due to the, the volatility of the, the passing 1460 01:28:15,440 --> 01:28:17,400 volume going between all the different options. 1461 01:28:17,400 --> 01:28:20,760 And, and I think also kind of a little bit of a weird start for 1462 01:28:20,760 --> 01:28:23,320 Kirk Cousins or he's just getting acclimated and coming 1463 01:28:23,320 --> 01:28:26,720 off the injury. I, I had been pegged Darnell 1464 01:28:26,720 --> 01:28:31,440 Mooney and Drake London kind of as like A1A1B in this offense. 1465 01:28:32,240 --> 01:28:34,160 I don't really think that's accurate either. 1466 01:28:34,160 --> 01:28:37,720 I think it's, it's pretty clear that Drake London is like, you 1467 01:28:37,720 --> 01:28:40,080 know, the, the clear one in the offense. 1468 01:28:40,600 --> 01:28:43,680 But I think Darnell Mooney is a very competent too. 1469 01:28:44,160 --> 01:28:48,760 And you know, if we, if we kind of think back and just use Kirk 1470 01:28:48,760 --> 01:28:53,000 Cousins, you know, with the Vikings as kind of a framework 1471 01:28:53,000 --> 01:28:57,280 to put this in, like he supported 2 very fantasy viable 1472 01:28:57,640 --> 01:29:02,520 wide receivers, you know, very, very different profile than Adam 1473 01:29:02,520 --> 01:29:06,120 Thielen as the previous Kirk Cousins wide receiver 2. 1474 01:29:07,360 --> 01:29:11,800 But I I think that the the accurate way to look at Darnell 1475 01:29:11,800 --> 01:29:17,480 Mooney the rest of the season is very viable kind of lower end 1476 01:29:17,480 --> 01:29:20,080 wide receiver 2. Do you do you? 1477 01:29:20,440 --> 01:29:25,320 So yeah, I guess is his place on this chart like is he a 1478 01:29:25,320 --> 01:29:29,480 reasonable comparison to like a Devonta Smith or a Devonta 1479 01:29:29,480 --> 01:29:32,320 Adams? Like is, is that is that 1480 01:29:32,320 --> 01:29:35,360 reasonable or or is he like a tier below those guys? 1481 01:29:36,360 --> 01:29:40,440 I mean, definitely in terms of pedigree, but it's it's hard to. 1482 01:29:41,520 --> 01:29:45,880 So you got a guy here, 21% Tigers per run, 1.9 yards per 1483 01:29:45,880 --> 01:29:53,160 route, run 12.3 A dot. He's running routes at a like 1484 01:29:53,160 --> 01:29:55,800 95. He's in the 95 to 100%. 1485 01:29:56,800 --> 01:30:04,680 So 97% route share. I think low end wide receiver 2 1486 01:30:04,680 --> 01:30:11,760 is pretty good way to put that. I guess when you compare him to 1487 01:30:11,760 --> 01:30:16,160 somebody like Devonta Smith, Devonta Smith is somebody where 1488 01:30:16,200 --> 01:30:20,320 you can just get a game where he takes over in a way that I 1489 01:30:20,320 --> 01:30:22,360 don't. I don't think that's really 1490 01:30:22,360 --> 01:30:27,440 there for Darnell Mooney. He's more of a guy where he can 1491 01:30:27,440 --> 01:30:31,840 get there by having a couple big plays, but he's not going to 1492 01:30:31,840 --> 01:30:36,920 dominate a defense so thoroughly that like it's it's no way. 1493 01:30:37,680 --> 01:30:40,400 It's really hard to see a week. No Mooney, no money. 1494 01:30:43,120 --> 01:30:46,880 But I think low end wider Super 2 is pretty good 1495 01:30:46,880 --> 01:30:50,000 characterization. We were well on our way to no 1496 01:30:50,000 --> 01:30:53,680 Mooney, no money this past week. Honestly, I mean, if if the 1497 01:30:53,680 --> 01:30:56,600 Cowboys had been able to be a little bit more competitive and 1498 01:30:56,640 --> 01:30:59,360 and forced the issue for the Falcons or they had to keep 1499 01:30:59,360 --> 01:31:02,800 passing like we, we may well have gotten no Mooney, no money. 1500 01:31:02,800 --> 01:31:05,320 Now granted. Right, if you got a defense that 1501 01:31:05,320 --> 01:31:09,720 can't stop anything. And and off of a Drake London 1502 01:31:09,720 --> 01:31:11,400 injury. But but yes. 1503 01:31:12,280 --> 01:31:14,720 Right. And, and and they will just 1504 01:31:14,720 --> 01:31:18,160 simply allow them to throw deep to Darnell Mooney every time 1505 01:31:18,240 --> 01:31:20,600 then. Yeah, I guess that that, that's 1506 01:31:20,880 --> 01:31:24,640 that that'll happen. So So what you're saying is do 1507 01:31:24,640 --> 01:31:28,400 they play the Jags at any point in this season? 1508 01:31:28,800 --> 01:31:31,880 OK, the the last guy I had a note on for this chart. 1509 01:31:32,920 --> 01:31:37,320 I mean, we have to talk about JSN finally, finally the 1510 01:31:37,320 --> 01:31:44,200 long-awaited JSN breakout game. Yeah, and and what's what's most 1511 01:31:44,200 --> 01:31:49,760 interesting about this game is is the actual if you look at the 1512 01:31:49,760 --> 01:31:53,880 red chart, it's like he's getting and if you look at the A 1513 01:31:53,880 --> 01:31:56,840 dot, like he had like a 20 yard A dot. 1514 01:31:57,960 --> 01:32:01,560 And then oh, I forget on a lot of targets. 1515 01:32:02,360 --> 01:32:08,320 And so so just I guess to characterize he's gone from like 1516 01:32:08,320 --> 01:32:11,720 they're only targeting him short to intermediate to like just 1517 01:32:11,720 --> 01:32:13,000 dominating. No. 1518 01:32:13,080 --> 01:32:15,560 And believe the Rams defense dominating them deep. 1519 01:32:18,680 --> 01:32:21,440 That's interesting. And I think some of that has to 1520 01:32:21,440 --> 01:32:25,920 be that they were like, OK, we need to we need to do this even 1521 01:32:25,920 --> 01:32:29,040 though DK Mac Metcalf isn't playing, we need somebody to do 1522 01:32:29,040 --> 01:32:31,800 that. And so we just have to try this 1523 01:32:32,280 --> 01:32:33,920 and it worked really, really well. 1524 01:32:34,760 --> 01:32:40,880 So I think I think it's, it's probably harder to project that 1525 01:32:40,880 --> 01:32:46,320 kind of usage when DK Metcalf comes back. 1526 01:32:47,040 --> 01:32:52,440 But like I, I would, I would hope that they kind of open up 1527 01:32:52,960 --> 01:32:56,920 these kind of roots routes to him in future where he he is 1528 01:32:56,920 --> 01:33:00,600 running more deeper and like that that kind of like probably 1529 01:33:00,600 --> 01:33:04,000 makes him harder to cover to where it it's you can't just 1530 01:33:04,000 --> 01:33:07,600 like say, OK, I I'm never going to have to turn and run with 1531 01:33:07,600 --> 01:33:10,240 this guy. I can break on everything where 1532 01:33:10,240 --> 01:33:15,240 that's that's not really true. If if he's a true trap to catch 1533 01:33:15,240 --> 01:33:18,200 his deep. Yeah, I, I mean, you certainly 1534 01:33:18,200 --> 01:33:21,280 hope this is a genie out of the bottle moment for Seattle where 1535 01:33:21,280 --> 01:33:23,880 they realize that they, they should just be deploying this 1536 01:33:23,880 --> 01:33:31,200 guy at all depths now. I mean, I, I want to believe 1537 01:33:31,200 --> 01:33:35,320 that the, the breakout is here and he's just going to be, you 1538 01:33:35,320 --> 01:33:39,240 know, incredible going forward. I, I think like expecting him to 1539 01:33:39,240 --> 01:33:42,960 just be that level of dominant going forward is probably a 1540 01:33:42,960 --> 01:33:47,480 little bit overly optimistic. And I do want to, you know, I I 1541 01:33:47,480 --> 01:33:50,520 just want to rein us in a tiny bit in that it didn't happen 1542 01:33:50,520 --> 01:33:53,520 against the Rams. Like the Rams are pretty poor 1543 01:33:53,520 --> 01:33:57,600 pass defense. Like, so now the the one thing 1544 01:33:57,600 --> 01:34:00,640 that does bug me when people try to diminish a performance 1545 01:34:00,640 --> 01:34:03,920 because it came against a bad defense is, well, what, what did 1546 01:34:03,920 --> 01:34:06,840 you want the player to do? You know what, what else did you 1547 01:34:06,840 --> 01:34:08,960 want him to do other than utterly dominate? 1548 01:34:08,960 --> 01:34:13,320 Like he like if if another receiver where we thought they 1549 01:34:13,320 --> 01:34:15,680 were, you know, just this elite receipt. 1550 01:34:15,680 --> 01:34:19,600 If Justin Jefferson had the JSN performance against the Rams, we 1551 01:34:19,600 --> 01:34:22,920 wouldn't, you know, belittle it because, Oh well, it's the Ram. 1552 01:34:22,920 --> 01:34:25,600 So it wasn't even that great by Justin Jefferson. 1553 01:34:25,600 --> 01:34:28,800 Or, you know, if if CD Lamb or Jamar chase go out there and 1554 01:34:28,800 --> 01:34:32,480 nuke the Rams like we're not taking anything away from them, 1555 01:34:33,280 --> 01:34:36,520 right? I do, I do want that context of 1556 01:34:36,520 --> 01:34:39,960 like, hey, it was against a pretty easy defense, but at the 1557 01:34:39,960 --> 01:34:43,480 same time, I I think you've got to you got to take. 1558 01:34:43,520 --> 01:34:46,760 Note of it well, well, I mean people were worried that this 1559 01:34:46,760 --> 01:34:52,440 guy was just like a slot short A dot merchant that was like a 1560 01:34:52,440 --> 01:34:56,080 legitimate like people were were like not just worried putting 1561 01:34:56,080 --> 01:34:59,640 him into that box and and and that's not true. 1562 01:35:01,000 --> 01:35:03,280 Like he's proven that to be not true. 1563 01:35:03,280 --> 01:35:06,440 So it's like it's it has to change the perception. 1564 01:35:07,400 --> 01:35:12,440 Yeah, it'll it's going to be really fun to to see how it 1565 01:35:12,440 --> 01:35:17,280 shakes out here. I I would assume that we're 1566 01:35:17,280 --> 01:35:23,400 going to get DK Metcalf back before too long, but here, so 1567 01:35:23,400 --> 01:35:26,160 you get they they've got the buy here. 1568 01:35:26,160 --> 01:35:29,800 So you probably get DK back for this 49ers game coming out of 1569 01:35:29,800 --> 01:35:34,400 the buy. But man, you've got got a couple 1570 01:35:34,400 --> 01:35:37,520 really fun matchups. Then you've got the Cardinals 1571 01:35:37,520 --> 01:35:41,040 after that 49ers matchup. That's a really, really fun one. 1572 01:35:42,000 --> 01:35:44,080 Cardinals love to give up explosive plays. 1573 01:35:44,320 --> 01:35:45,920 Then you get The Jets. That's a tough one. 1574 01:35:46,320 --> 01:35:49,640 Followed by the Cardinals again, see the Cardinals twice in three 1575 01:35:49,640 --> 01:35:53,600 weeks. And then unfortunately it's it's 1576 01:35:53,600 --> 01:35:57,280 three pretty 3 tougher matchups to end the season with Packers, 1577 01:35:57,280 --> 01:36:01,560 Vikings, Bears. But you do get that really fun 1578 01:36:01,560 --> 01:36:04,680 stretch with the Cardinals in there twice. 1579 01:36:05,680 --> 01:36:08,480 So it'll it'll be fun. Definitely one to watch. 1580 01:36:08,480 --> 01:36:10,560 But let's move on to the next chart here. 1581 01:36:11,520 --> 01:36:14,480 A couple guys that I've got notes on here. 1582 01:36:17,080 --> 01:36:20,400 We we mentioned this briefly when we were talking about the 1583 01:36:20,400 --> 01:36:25,120 dolphins, But I mean Tyree kill like his his weighted targets 1584 01:36:25,120 --> 01:36:27,320 per route run are still fantastic. 1585 01:36:27,520 --> 01:36:31,200 You know, he's he's over here in the quadrant of the chart that 1586 01:36:31,200 --> 01:36:33,200 we want. He's all the way over here with 1587 01:36:33,200 --> 01:36:37,000 these guys that can put up these big explosive games like Mike 1588 01:36:37,000 --> 01:36:40,520 Evans, George Pickens, you know, CD Lamb, Nico Collins. 1589 01:36:40,800 --> 01:36:44,840 We just haven't seen the fantasy points come for Tyreke yet this 1590 01:36:44,840 --> 01:36:47,160 season. Now, granted, he's he's had 3 1591 01:36:47,160 --> 01:36:50,720 1/2 games with Tua. So it when you frame it like 1592 01:36:50,720 --> 01:36:54,000 that, if if we were heading into week 4, you know, and it's like, 1593 01:36:54,400 --> 01:36:57,320 Oh, no, Tyree kill hasn't dropped a 50 burger yet. 1594 01:36:57,320 --> 01:37:00,400 Like no one would be panicking. He'd be like, yeah, he had like 1595 01:37:00,400 --> 01:37:03,320 80 yards here and 90 yards here and whatever. 1596 01:37:03,680 --> 01:37:07,200 But so I'm not, I'm not all that concerned. 1597 01:37:07,360 --> 01:37:12,520 I'm just, I'm hoping that people, you know, forget how 1598 01:37:12,680 --> 01:37:15,440 incredible the Tyree kill true ceiling outcome is. 1599 01:37:16,200 --> 01:37:21,120 And I I think it's just a keep slamming Tyree kill until it 1600 01:37:21,120 --> 01:37:24,280 pays off type of situation. Right. 1601 01:37:24,760 --> 01:37:28,640 I mean, the usage is definitely lower than it has been in years 1602 01:37:28,640 --> 01:37:31,760 past. Like even with Chua, it's it's 1603 01:37:31,760 --> 01:37:37,000 been a little lower. Like against the bills, just 17% 1604 01:37:37,000 --> 01:37:45,840 target spread run and now the other games are 25 and 33%, but 1605 01:37:45,920 --> 01:37:50,000 it's been a little bit lower. I'm, I'm still with you where 1606 01:37:50,360 --> 01:37:55,200 the the sample size is so small and which you that can't get too 1607 01:37:55,200 --> 01:37:59,560 carried away and still should have a heavy, heavy prior to 1608 01:37:59,600 --> 01:38:05,480 like our prior expectation and or heavy lean to our prior 1609 01:38:05,600 --> 01:38:08,480 expectation. But I, I I think there's like 1610 01:38:08,520 --> 01:38:14,160 some cause for concern, but agree with you that you, you, 1611 01:38:14,240 --> 01:38:16,280 you you keep playing this. Yeah. 1612 01:38:18,280 --> 01:38:22,240 OK, I, I have to talk about Quinton Johnston, who put up yet 1613 01:38:22,240 --> 01:38:24,920 another pretty impressive fantasy week. 1614 01:38:26,240 --> 01:38:30,160 I, I saw a stat that's been circulating out there that 1615 01:38:30,160 --> 01:38:35,520 Quinton Johnston is the player that has gotten the most fantasy 1616 01:38:35,520 --> 01:38:40,320 points on plays coming from broken coverage this season by a 1617 01:38:40,320 --> 01:38:43,320 pretty wide margin. And if you watch the game 1618 01:38:43,320 --> 01:38:46,920 against the Browns, I mean the play where he has like the long 1619 01:38:46,920 --> 01:38:50,520 touchdown, there's there's no one in the zip code, you know, 1620 01:38:50,520 --> 01:38:55,440 like now to to give Quintin Johnson his flowers 2023 Quintin 1621 01:38:55,440 --> 01:38:59,640 Johnson puts that ball. Yeah, he's he's looking at a, 1622 01:38:59,720 --> 01:39:03,040 you know, 60 yard touchdown and it it goes to the turf. 1623 01:39:03,040 --> 01:39:07,680 So his hands, I mean, he hasn't had the the drop problems as bad 1624 01:39:07,680 --> 01:39:09,800 as he had last year. Like you definitely can can give 1625 01:39:09,800 --> 01:39:13,360 him that credit. But I do not think that this is 1626 01:39:14,160 --> 01:39:16,920 I'd be surprised if this is a good player, you know, is all 1627 01:39:16,920 --> 01:39:19,360 I'm saying. Really. 1628 01:39:19,360 --> 01:39:22,000 The reason I wanted to talk about Quentin Johnston is to 1629 01:39:22,000 --> 01:39:26,160 talk about Ladd Mcconkey, because Ladd Mcconkey is the guy 1630 01:39:26,160 --> 01:39:29,080 that actually is like the true one in the offense. 1631 01:39:29,840 --> 01:39:33,760 I mean, they look like they're in similar parts on the chart. 1632 01:39:35,480 --> 01:39:38,600 But man, like so much of the Quentin Johnston production has 1633 01:39:38,600 --> 01:39:43,960 just been like fraudulent broken plays and lad Lad Mcconkey looks 1634 01:39:43,960 --> 01:39:47,360 like he's the real deal here. And and with the pass William 1635 01:39:47,360 --> 01:39:51,920 going up for the Chargers, like it really does feel like they've 1636 01:39:51,920 --> 01:39:54,960 discovered that they can be successful passing the ball. 1637 01:39:55,840 --> 01:40:00,200 I'm Lad Mcconkey might be one of those players where he closes 1638 01:40:00,200 --> 01:40:04,640 the season and is is just that. Classic rookie. 1639 01:40:05,200 --> 01:40:07,400 Explosion in the second-half of the year? 1640 01:40:07,400 --> 01:40:10,520 Like, would would you be at all surprised if we end up seeing 1641 01:40:10,520 --> 01:40:13,920 something like Lad Mcconkey averages 10 targets a game to 1642 01:40:13,920 --> 01:40:19,800 close the season out? Yeah, yeah, I'd be pretty 1643 01:40:19,800 --> 01:40:23,520 surprised. I mean, what's, what's his, 1644 01:40:23,520 --> 01:40:26,040 what's his targets for route run been these last four weeks? 1645 01:40:26,560 --> 01:40:37,720 Last so it's been around 2022 percent 2122% OK so even with 1646 01:40:37,720 --> 01:40:44,960 the elevated past attempts he's been getting 76 and seven 1647 01:40:44,960 --> 01:40:48,800 targets where's last week, Quinton. 1648 01:40:48,840 --> 01:40:51,240 So Quinton Johnson, he's missed some weeks. 1649 01:40:51,680 --> 01:40:59,240 So last week he was at five. Yeah, I, I, I mean, like I, I, I 1650 01:40:59,240 --> 01:41:02,280 have the same priority that you do that Lad Mcgonkie is a lot 1651 01:41:02,280 --> 01:41:09,160 better than QJ, but I'm not, I'm not seeing this here in the in 1652 01:41:09,160 --> 01:41:13,640 the Matrix. Like his, like I, I guess what's 1653 01:41:13,640 --> 01:41:16,920 interesting here is if you look at the first four games for Lad 1654 01:41:16,920 --> 01:41:21,680 Mcconkey, his target spread run was like 28%. 1655 01:41:22,560 --> 01:41:25,920 And then when he's been actually producing a little bit more, 1656 01:41:26,240 --> 01:41:33,000 he's averaged at 20%. So it's it's hard to know how to 1657 01:41:33,000 --> 01:41:36,040 read that. I mean, to me it it seems like 1658 01:41:36,040 --> 01:41:40,640 that's just a function of they were such low pass volume early 1659 01:41:40,680 --> 01:41:44,120 that it's easy to get some kind of wonky targets for route run 1660 01:41:44,120 --> 01:41:45,800 numbers, right? Like if you're only throwing, if 1661 01:41:45,800 --> 01:41:49,920 you're only throwing 20 passes like one, the difference of one 1662 01:41:49,920 --> 01:41:53,720 target is a 5% swing you. Know targets for route, right? 1663 01:41:53,840 --> 01:41:56,600 Yeah. And then as they scale up with 1664 01:41:56,600 --> 01:42:00,760 44 drop backs, he's at 17 percent, 38 drop backs, he's at 1665 01:42:00,760 --> 01:42:03,840 20%. Twenty percent, 34 drop backs at 1666 01:42:03,840 --> 01:42:10,160 22%, where it's like every week he's getting 6%, six to seven 1667 01:42:10,160 --> 01:42:12,000 targets. Yeah, OK. 1668 01:42:12,000 --> 01:42:14,840 So I was I was mistaken in thinking that his targets for 1669 01:42:14,840 --> 01:42:19,520 route run or scaling, but it sounds like it's not scaling as 1670 01:42:19,520 --> 01:42:22,320 much with the volume increasing, it's getting spread out a little 1671 01:42:22,320 --> 01:42:24,120 more. Yeah, I think that's what's 1672 01:42:24,120 --> 01:42:28,160 happening. I I might just be stubborn here, 1673 01:42:28,160 --> 01:42:31,600 but I just, I want to bet on the fact that this guy's the best 1674 01:42:31,600 --> 01:42:35,960 receiver on the team and that he earns more volume going forward. 1675 01:42:36,760 --> 01:42:38,680 Yeah, I think that's pretty reasonable. 1676 01:42:39,600 --> 01:42:44,920 I, I, I think it's probably a spot where I'd probably go 1677 01:42:44,920 --> 01:42:48,920 against the Herod a little bit. Like if, if everybody's just 1678 01:42:48,920 --> 01:42:56,400 ignoring this kind of like middling usage stats, I, I, I'd 1679 01:42:56,400 --> 01:42:58,520 probably not play them. Like that doesn't make, that 1680 01:42:58,520 --> 01:43:00,000 wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to me. 1681 01:43:00,000 --> 01:43:03,920 Where if, if everybody panicked a little bit too much about it, 1682 01:43:04,400 --> 01:43:09,800 about a four-game sample in, in a rookie season, I, I, I, I, I'd 1683 01:43:09,800 --> 01:43:12,120 probably play into it. Especially when we know when 1684 01:43:12,120 --> 01:43:13,680 we've seen the ceiling that he can put up. 1685 01:43:15,120 --> 01:43:19,920 Yeah, let me I'm I'm pulling up my early rankings for the Dog 1686 01:43:19,920 --> 01:43:23,760 Bowl and I want to just give you a couple quick one V1 straight 1687 01:43:23,760 --> 01:43:27,360 up. So this week, lad Mcconkey or 1688 01:43:27,360 --> 01:43:32,640 George Pickens? And oh, I'm on the spot and I'd 1689 01:43:32,640 --> 01:43:34,320 probably Pickens. Probably. 1690 01:43:34,840 --> 01:43:37,400 OK, that's how I have it too, lad. 1691 01:43:37,400 --> 01:43:38,800 Mcconkey or Josh? Downs. 1692 01:43:43,440 --> 01:43:48,640 That's pretty close, but probably slight edge to Josh 1693 01:43:48,640 --> 01:43:52,440 Downs. Lad Mcconkey or Cortland Sutton. 1694 01:43:54,200 --> 01:44:01,360 Let me I don't want to fly completely blind on Sutton, I 1695 01:44:01,360 --> 01:44:03,400 don't want to just make it up. He's been. 1696 01:44:03,440 --> 01:44:06,440 He's been getting pretty good targets for route. 1697 01:44:10,720 --> 01:44:14,560 So yeah, he he's like important for their offense, but his QB is 1698 01:44:14,560 --> 01:44:18,640 like ass, which is not Rand breaking analysis. 1699 01:44:20,560 --> 01:44:29,600 So he had a he had 10 targets, 122 yards against the Ravens. 1700 01:44:30,240 --> 01:44:37,000 So, and then 11 targets for 101 yards in the prior game. 1701 01:44:37,560 --> 01:44:40,720 And I think that was the Panther Panthers. 1702 01:44:41,800 --> 01:44:47,520 And so, yeah, I I think that's close as well. 1703 01:44:47,520 --> 01:44:50,360 But you would do something. I think you'd Sutton over over 1704 01:44:50,360 --> 01:44:53,240 Mcconkey. OK, I have Mcconkey over Sutton 1705 01:44:53,280 --> 01:44:56,240 and then the next, the last guy I'll ask you about, Terry 1706 01:44:56,240 --> 01:44:58,280 Mclaurin. Oh, Terry Mclaurin. 1707 01:44:58,280 --> 01:45:01,000 Easy. OK, even even in that pit 1708 01:45:01,000 --> 01:45:03,240 matchup where you might get the slow down. 1709 01:45:06,320 --> 01:45:08,400 Yeah, I think so. I think so. 1710 01:45:09,520 --> 01:45:13,240 I think, I think McLaren is kind of like hitting that kind of 1711 01:45:13,480 --> 01:45:23,080 star territory where, yeah, I think, I think, I think that's 1712 01:45:23,080 --> 01:45:24,560 how I'd have it. OK. 1713 01:45:26,400 --> 01:45:31,920 All right, the next guy had a note on all right, this is this 1714 01:45:31,920 --> 01:45:36,040 is my early, early kind of flag plant for this week. 1715 01:45:36,120 --> 01:45:40,000 Like Scroll down guy. It's probably probably more like 1716 01:45:40,000 --> 01:45:42,880 dog bowl. I I haven't looked at the DFS 1717 01:45:42,880 --> 01:45:46,160 pricing for this guy, but I do I do really like his quarterback 1718 01:45:46,160 --> 01:45:48,000 this week. That's Ricky Pearsall. 1719 01:45:48,920 --> 01:45:52,320 You got the rookie coming off the buy now. 1720 01:45:52,680 --> 01:45:55,520 I, I reserve the right to change this opinion. 1721 01:45:55,520 --> 01:45:58,640 If you get, you know, Jawan Jennings fully, fully back. 1722 01:45:58,640 --> 01:46:00,840 It sounds like he'll probably be back. 1723 01:46:01,280 --> 01:46:04,040 But I, I wouldn't be surprised, you know, if you get Jawan 1724 01:46:04,040 --> 01:46:07,280 Jennings with some questionable tags in practice this week, if 1725 01:46:07,280 --> 01:46:11,160 it's just Ricky Pearsall, that's going to be the guy that is, is 1726 01:46:11,160 --> 01:46:16,600 getting more opportunities here. But I, I just I like this spot a 1727 01:46:16,600 --> 01:46:20,320 lot here against the Tampa defense and the 49ers. 1728 01:46:20,320 --> 01:46:24,360 You just have volatility naturally among their guys and 1729 01:46:24,360 --> 01:46:27,680 like certainly Ricky Pearsall is the least likely to get there 1730 01:46:27,680 --> 01:46:31,160 out of George Kittle or Debo Samuel or Christian McCaffrey. 1731 01:46:31,720 --> 01:46:36,400 But it it wouldn't surprise me if if you told me that Ricky 1732 01:46:36,400 --> 01:46:41,480 Pearsall got there on, you know, 2 random touchdowns like I, I 1733 01:46:41,480 --> 01:46:44,240 wouldn't be so surprised. Yeah. 1734 01:46:44,720 --> 01:46:47,440 And I think that's might, might be how it would have to happen. 1735 01:46:48,440 --> 01:46:53,800 His routes aren't great like in, in his last week, this was week 1736 01:46:53,880 --> 01:47:01,800 eight, he had a 7% right run, 771% not 771% right run and then 1737 01:47:01,800 --> 01:47:08,480 just 17% targets per out run, 1.6 yards per out run. 1738 01:47:09,680 --> 01:47:13,240 I know you have to give a, you have to give heavy deference to 1739 01:47:13,240 --> 01:47:16,920 the first round draft capital and, and, and the opportunity 1740 01:47:16,920 --> 01:47:18,800 set here. That's pretty good. 1741 01:47:18,800 --> 01:47:23,720 All of that is pretty good. But every new week we get off 1742 01:47:23,720 --> 01:47:27,040 sort of middling peripherals from this guy. 1743 01:47:28,080 --> 01:47:33,200 The more I'm I'm starting to lean towards the average college 1744 01:47:33,200 --> 01:47:35,600 production rather than draft capital. 1745 01:47:36,360 --> 01:47:39,160 I mean, we've only, we've only had two weeks since the guy, 1746 01:47:39,280 --> 01:47:41,200 yeah. Only two weeks, that's true. 1747 01:47:41,600 --> 01:47:43,800 That's a huge shot through the chest, like I. 1748 01:47:43,920 --> 01:47:48,160 He got shot but now, now he now we're having week 3 after 1749 01:47:48,160 --> 01:47:51,800 getting shot in the chest. But you so you're week 3 off of 1750 01:47:51,800 --> 01:47:53,800 a bye. And I think, I mean, even from 1751 01:47:53,800 --> 01:47:56,680 the first week to the second week, like there's pretty 1752 01:47:56,680 --> 01:47:59,360 substantial improvement for him. Like the first week he looked 1753 01:47:59,360 --> 01:48:02,400 like he was not like he was fucking up the timing on some of 1754 01:48:02,400 --> 01:48:04,760 his routes. Like he, he ended up like 1755 01:48:04,960 --> 01:48:07,720 causing one of the the interceptions for Purdy 'cause 1756 01:48:07,720 --> 01:48:11,120 he was just like late getting to the spot and Purdy had to throw 1757 01:48:11,120 --> 01:48:14,280 it and, and. Then low pace for Purdue. 1758 01:48:15,640 --> 01:48:18,880 I'm saying from from the first game that he played in the 1759 01:48:18,880 --> 01:48:21,640 second game, there's a lot of improvement and they didn't 1760 01:48:21,640 --> 01:48:23,880 didn't go away from him. They didn't say like, oh, you 1761 01:48:23,880 --> 01:48:26,640 went out there and and totally screwed the pooch the first 1762 01:48:26,840 --> 01:48:29,680 opportunity we gave you Rook like the next. 1763 01:48:29,680 --> 01:48:33,800 They actually they did decrease his his right share from 84 to 1764 01:48:33,800 --> 01:48:39,240 71 like he, he, he got, he went from 5 targets to four targets. 1765 01:48:39,480 --> 01:48:46,240 He did go from 21 yards to 38 yards and and from 16% targets 1766 01:48:46,240 --> 01:48:48,440 per everyone to 17% targets per everyone. 1767 01:48:49,040 --> 01:48:51,360 That's improvement. It's it's. 1768 01:48:51,360 --> 01:48:55,960 Better, but you can kind of see what I'm getting at where like 1769 01:48:56,000 --> 01:48:59,200 I'm I'm not totally Pooh poohing it because you're getting game 1770 01:48:59,200 --> 01:49:01,920 tree of a rookie first round receiver. 1771 01:49:02,640 --> 01:49:06,960 I I'm, but some of that is kind of like. 1772 01:49:07,360 --> 01:49:12,360 I don't think you can ignore it. Yeah, I mean, this this week, 1773 01:49:12,360 --> 01:49:15,800 though, you're just you're having to go pretty far in the 1774 01:49:15,800 --> 01:49:19,040 dumpster to to play some of these guys. 1775 01:49:19,040 --> 01:49:23,800 Like for example, I mean, I think for some of these, I know, 1776 01:49:23,840 --> 01:49:26,520 I know what you're going to say. Demario Douglas or Ricky 1777 01:49:26,520 --> 01:49:30,640 Pearsall. Oh, I mean that. 1778 01:49:30,640 --> 01:49:35,200 That would be Papa Douglas. OK, Roma, Duze or Ricky? 1779 01:49:35,200 --> 01:49:38,960 Piersall And that's pretty close. 1780 01:49:39,040 --> 01:49:43,040 I think that's pretty close, but it's totally from the hip. 1781 01:49:43,600 --> 01:49:45,880 Yeah, here. Here's a gross one. 1782 01:49:46,000 --> 01:49:51,920 Xavier Worthy or Ricky Piersall again? 1783 01:49:51,920 --> 01:49:57,760 Close, but like that that that that to me, I, I, I actually 1784 01:49:57,760 --> 01:50:01,680 consider them to be very similar where first round draft capital 1785 01:50:01,960 --> 01:50:05,600 good situation, but they they've been bad. 1786 01:50:06,640 --> 01:50:09,520 Yeah, I think, I think that's pretty reasonable. 1787 01:50:10,720 --> 01:50:13,480 All right, let's move on to the last chart. 1788 01:50:14,040 --> 01:50:16,400 We might be able to get out of here in under 2 hours. 1789 01:50:16,400 --> 01:50:20,120 Trico clock is running. We got 10 minutes. 1790 01:50:21,840 --> 01:50:26,520 The the first note I had here, I want to ask you about DeAndre 1791 01:50:26,520 --> 01:50:30,880 Hopkins. So obviously his route rate is 1792 01:50:30,880 --> 01:50:34,000 going to improve here over these next couple weeks. 1793 01:50:34,000 --> 01:50:35,760 He's getting acclimated with the Chiefs. 1794 01:50:36,560 --> 01:50:40,800 But do you think that this this game that he had yesterday was 1795 01:50:40,800 --> 01:50:43,360 an anomaly? Should we expect the KC pass 1796 01:50:43,360 --> 01:50:46,520 catchers to rotate week over week with who's getting there? 1797 01:50:46,920 --> 01:50:50,640 Or are Kelsey and DeAndre Hopkins going to just be the two 1798 01:50:50,640 --> 01:50:52,120 guys that the passing? Off. 1799 01:50:52,640 --> 01:50:55,920 I mean, his domination was out of the necessity, right? 1800 01:50:57,360 --> 01:51:01,240 Like they have some warm bodies out there other than those two 1801 01:51:01,240 --> 01:51:08,880 guys. So yeah, I think his red chair 1802 01:51:08,880 --> 01:51:11,960 is going to increase and then I think he's going to dominate in 1803 01:51:11,960 --> 01:51:16,400 targets. Yeah, I feel pretty good about 1804 01:51:16,400 --> 01:51:19,560 Nuke. I I tend to agree He's he's in a 1805 01:51:19,560 --> 01:51:24,320 pretty good spot. All right, the next note I had 1806 01:51:24,320 --> 01:51:30,280 here was Cedric Tillman. Man, if you watch this game, you 1807 01:51:30,280 --> 01:51:34,480 weren't super happy if you had played Cedric Tillman in DFS for 1808 01:51:34,480 --> 01:51:38,680 the vast majority of the game. But then in typical Jameis 1809 01:51:38,680 --> 01:51:44,320 Winston fashion, absolute pure garbage time bailout on Cedric 1810 01:51:44,320 --> 01:51:47,800 Tillman. But I mean, the garbage time 1811 01:51:47,800 --> 01:51:50,520 stats, they do still count those fantasy points. 1812 01:51:50,520 --> 01:51:54,560 They do spend Draco. So I don't know, like I kind of 1813 01:51:55,040 --> 01:51:57,240 kind of feel like that is Jameis's MO anyway. 1814 01:51:57,240 --> 01:52:00,480 Like if you are in a really crappy game, like he still gives 1815 01:52:00,480 --> 01:52:02,520 you a shot to get there in garbage time. 1816 01:52:03,080 --> 01:52:06,360 So are are we discounting the Cedric Tillman performance or is 1817 01:52:06,360 --> 01:52:09,320 this just like it doesn't matter how you get there? 1818 01:52:09,320 --> 01:52:12,240 Like he still put points in the box. 1819 01:52:13,720 --> 01:52:19,880 So if you're looking at this here, he ran a 98% route rate 1820 01:52:20,240 --> 01:52:23,280 and then he got 18% targets per run. 1821 01:52:24,320 --> 01:52:31,600 And because they had 56 drop backs that 18% on on and he he 1822 01:52:31,600 --> 01:52:35,800 ran almost every route. That 18% translated to 10 1823 01:52:35,800 --> 01:52:42,280 targets for 75 yards and a 1.36 yards per run. 1824 01:52:43,760 --> 01:52:53,600 And I'm, I mean, you're, you're happy you got the touchdown. 1825 01:52:54,120 --> 01:53:01,240 Now I think he's playable, but this is a pretty clear case of 1826 01:53:02,080 --> 01:53:05,840 just really high volume and, and, and, and gross efficiency. 1827 01:53:06,360 --> 01:53:10,720 But I maybe that's just part of the Jimmy's experience. 1828 01:53:10,840 --> 01:53:16,200 And the next week, like you need Jimenez to play well for Cedric 1829 01:53:16,200 --> 01:53:19,680 Tillman to play well, you, you have to be happy with the, with 1830 01:53:19,680 --> 01:53:22,920 the route rate. I don't, I think you have to be 1831 01:53:22,920 --> 01:53:26,280 a little bit concerned that or not concerned. 1832 01:53:26,560 --> 01:53:32,800 But it's hard to play a guy when he's at 18% target spread run 1833 01:53:32,800 --> 01:53:38,360 and you combine that with 1823% the last week, So 20%. 1834 01:53:39,560 --> 01:53:48,720 And I mean that Cedric Tillman is the type of guy where the 1835 01:53:48,720 --> 01:53:53,760 boomers salivate like, oh, why would I take early receivers? 1836 01:53:54,040 --> 01:53:56,880 I'm going to be able to get a, a guy like Cedric Tillman on 1837 01:53:56,880 --> 01:54:00,440 waivers and play him and, and he'll get me my 10 points a 1838 01:54:00,440 --> 01:54:05,120 week. I, I kind of think that's, 1839 01:54:05,120 --> 01:54:09,720 that's who he is. He'll get, he'll probably score 1840 01:54:09,720 --> 01:54:12,080 touchdowns. It he's a big Buddy Guy. 1841 01:54:12,080 --> 01:54:17,680 So like that makes sense. And but I'm, I'm not over like 1842 01:54:18,440 --> 01:54:23,840 and, and, and just for like a transparency and, and, and being 1843 01:54:24,000 --> 01:54:28,880 a good podcast. We, we were pretty excited about 1844 01:54:28,880 --> 01:54:34,800 these guys last week. And I think, I think when you 1845 01:54:34,800 --> 01:54:38,160 get a game like that, you have to, when you have short data, 1846 01:54:38,160 --> 01:54:39,640 you have to evolve pretty quickly. 1847 01:54:40,280 --> 01:54:44,760 And I I'm evolving to to being a lot less interested in it. 1848 01:54:45,760 --> 01:54:49,400 Yeah, I'm, I think I'm a little more interested than you are in 1849 01:54:49,400 --> 01:54:52,320 Cedric Tillman specifically. Just I, I really liked him as a 1850 01:54:52,320 --> 01:54:54,080 rookie. I drafted a lot of him last 1851 01:54:54,080 --> 01:54:55,400 year. I like the profile. 1852 01:54:55,400 --> 01:54:59,760 I just, I thought that he got kind of lost in in the draft 1853 01:54:59,760 --> 01:55:01,520 process just because of the injury. 1854 01:55:02,520 --> 01:55:05,880 Maybe you have a Jamez bounce back game and and he's a big 1855 01:55:05,880 --> 01:55:07,640 part of it like that. That seems reasonable. 1856 01:55:08,120 --> 01:55:11,080 Yeah, I, I, I'm still, I'm holding out hope for Senator 1857 01:55:11,080 --> 01:55:12,880 Tillman. The one where I'm, I'm with you 1858 01:55:12,880 --> 01:55:14,440 on like, all right, let's move quick. 1859 01:55:14,440 --> 01:55:19,080 Is, is Elijah Moore where we have more, we have more data on 1860 01:55:19,080 --> 01:55:21,480 this guy where he just he hasn't done very much. 1861 01:55:21,840 --> 01:55:24,640 Like there were reasons to be excited about the profile when 1862 01:55:24,640 --> 01:55:26,760 he first came out, but nothing happened. 1863 01:55:26,760 --> 01:55:28,160 Nothing happened. Nothing happened. 1864 01:55:28,360 --> 01:55:32,600 You get a bunch of targets last week, OK, you know, yardage then 1865 01:55:32,800 --> 01:55:36,120 again, like you get the targets this week, but he he doesn't do 1866 01:55:36,120 --> 01:55:38,760 anything with it. And so it's just like that's, 1867 01:55:38,760 --> 01:55:41,360 that's one where I'm willing to move on a little quicker. 1868 01:55:41,600 --> 01:55:44,920 Senator Tillman, though I I still want to leave the light 1869 01:55:44,920 --> 01:55:47,320 on. For he Should somebody be 1870 01:55:47,320 --> 01:55:54,360 playing Tillman over Judy? I think you do I, I think the 1871 01:55:54,360 --> 01:55:56,960 ceiling for Tillman is, is higher, right? 1872 01:55:56,960 --> 01:56:00,560 You just have like, you kind of know what Judy is like. 1873 01:56:00,560 --> 01:56:02,160 You're a little bit more uncertain, dude. 1874 01:56:02,680 --> 01:56:08,280 Yeah, and also like, if you just want to be aligned with with my 1875 01:56:08,280 --> 01:56:12,680 brand and just, you know, stand on business, that Jerry Judy 1876 01:56:12,680 --> 01:56:16,120 fucking stinks. Like that, in and of itself, is 1877 01:56:16,120 --> 01:56:21,080 reason to play Cedric Tillman. But if these guys, if, if one, 1878 01:56:21,080 --> 01:56:24,720 if everybody was playing Cedric Tillman, nobody's playing Jerry 1879 01:56:24,720 --> 01:56:26,520 Judy. I'm playing Jerry Judy. 1880 01:56:27,600 --> 01:56:31,080 Yeah, yeah, if, if. It's a good way round. 1881 01:56:31,320 --> 01:56:34,120 I'm playing Cedric Tillman. Yeah, if you told me for certain 1882 01:56:34,120 --> 01:56:36,320 that no one was going to play Jerry Judy and everyone's 1883 01:56:36,320 --> 01:56:39,520 jamming Cedric Tillman, I'd probably have a little Jerry 1884 01:56:39,520 --> 01:56:42,360 Judy. I I still do have to stare at I 1885 01:56:43,000 --> 01:56:49,240 I've got a A555 team that's pretty good and and has a chance 1886 01:56:49,240 --> 01:56:52,920 of advancing with CMC on it, which would be one of the few, 1887 01:56:53,280 --> 01:56:55,640 you know, team. There's got to only be a handful 1888 01:56:55,640 --> 01:56:58,720 of those teams that can advance in a tournament that's that's 1889 01:56:58,720 --> 01:57:02,880 that small of a field. But I believe it has Jerry Judy 1890 01:57:02,880 --> 01:57:05,320 on it. And so anytime that I check that 1891 01:57:05,320 --> 01:57:08,880 team to see how many points back it is, I have to stare at stupid 1892 01:57:08,880 --> 01:57:12,800 Jerry Judy on that roster. I should have should have stuck 1893 01:57:12,800 --> 01:57:16,160 with my gut on it. But anyway, yeah, no, I, I mean, 1894 01:57:17,120 --> 01:57:21,720 if you maybe handicap it and say like who averages more fantasy 1895 01:57:21,720 --> 01:57:24,680 points from here on out, I still think I'd give it to Tillman, 1896 01:57:27,000 --> 01:57:29,760 but it's close. It's way closer than you would 1897 01:57:30,280 --> 01:57:33,200 than I'm implying. You know, it's, it's much closer 1898 01:57:33,200 --> 01:57:36,600 than I'm letting on, but I think I'd still need Tillman. 1899 01:57:40,800 --> 01:57:44,360 OK, last guy, then we're done. Can we get this board done in 1900 01:57:44,360 --> 01:57:47,320 under 2 minutes? Trico Khalil Shakur. 1901 01:57:47,800 --> 01:57:50,600 So Khalil Shakur, you can kind of see him here. 1902 01:57:50,600 --> 01:57:54,240 He's he's near the he's the second highest guy as far as 1903 01:57:54,240 --> 01:57:57,520 fantasy points per game, only below Jawan Jennings. 1904 01:57:57,840 --> 01:57:59,760 He's been getting a lot of targets lately. 1905 01:58:01,000 --> 01:58:05,760 Let's see last three weeks, 7 targets, 9 targets, 7 targets. 1906 01:58:06,880 --> 01:58:08,800 The snaps have been pretty consistent. 1907 01:58:09,080 --> 01:58:11,920 Like the number of snaps he's getting is not really all that 1908 01:58:11,920 --> 01:58:13,320 different. He's just been getting targeted 1909 01:58:13,320 --> 01:58:16,000 more lately. The the flight. 1910 01:58:18,120 --> 01:58:20,280 Yeah. The fly in the ointment is he's 1911 01:58:20,280 --> 01:58:23,400 getting like negative A dot. Like it's all at the line of 1912 01:58:23,400 --> 01:58:25,200 scrimmage. It's the stuff they thought was 1913 01:58:25,200 --> 01:58:26,720 going to be the Dalton Kincaid stuff. 1914 01:58:26,720 --> 01:58:30,320 And then they realized, like, oh, this guy is not that 1915 01:58:30,320 --> 01:58:31,880 exciting with the ball in his hands. 1916 01:58:31,880 --> 01:58:34,840 Like, let's, I guess let's give it to Kool Shakur instead. 1917 01:58:35,600 --> 01:58:39,640 So I I don't know is give me give me your insight on Khalil 1918 01:58:39,640 --> 01:58:45,320 Shakur here. I think I mean he's what's 1919 01:58:45,320 --> 01:58:51,120 interesting here is that he's getting low A dots, but his yard 1920 01:58:51,120 --> 01:58:59,440 perception is actually solid. Like in week in week 7 you've 1921 01:58:59,440 --> 01:59:03,880 got a 0.7 A dot, but 9.3 yards per reception. 1922 01:59:04,560 --> 01:59:11,560 At week 81.9 A dot, 11.9 yards per reception and then week nine 1923 01:59:11,640 --> 01:59:20,520 negative .7 and then 8.3. And so I yeah, like not not that 1924 01:59:20,520 --> 01:59:25,520 this is a great comparison, but one person, one player that like 1925 01:59:25,520 --> 01:59:30,480 was like shoehorned as like a bad player or a limited player 1926 01:59:30,480 --> 01:59:33,960 early in his career because of this was Devo Samuel, where he 1927 01:59:33,960 --> 01:59:38,320 had this really low A dot, but he was actually turning, he was 1928 01:59:38,320 --> 01:59:42,680 actually turning those layoff a dot trows into good yardage. 1929 01:59:43,160 --> 01:59:45,960 And I if if that I think that's what we're seeing here with 1930 01:59:45,960 --> 01:59:50,640 secure. And I think you have to be, you 1931 01:59:50,640 --> 01:59:54,120 get a lot more concerned about that kind of gimmicky usage when 1932 01:59:54,120 --> 01:59:56,360 you're not actually get getting the production, when you're 1933 01:59:56,360 --> 02:00:00,600 getting the production like play away. 1934 02:00:02,280 --> 02:00:05,800 Like last three weeks you're getting an average of like 8 1935 02:00:05,800 --> 02:00:08,480 targets a game or 7 1/2 targets a game. 1936 02:00:09,960 --> 02:00:12,720 Like you're not like you're not jamming that guy. 1937 02:00:12,960 --> 02:00:17,200 And but I I, I wouldn't shy away because of the ADA when he's 1938 02:00:17,280 --> 02:00:22,040 still producing anyway. Yeah, yeah, definitely agree. 1939 02:00:22,040 --> 02:00:25,640 He is like in this week particularly he's a very 1940 02:00:25,640 --> 02:00:28,200 reasonable play because of how fit it is. 1941 02:00:28,200 --> 02:00:32,880 I would pending pending the Amari Cooper status. 1942 02:00:32,920 --> 02:00:37,440 If Cooper is out, I would bet you see just an absolutely 1943 02:00:37,440 --> 02:00:41,400 absurd rate of Josh Allen being stacked with Khalil Shakur this 1944 02:00:41,400 --> 02:00:44,240 week. Right. 1945 02:00:44,240 --> 02:00:45,400 And then, then you don't play him. 1946 02:00:45,840 --> 02:00:49,040 Yeah, you just probably don't play him if he if he's going 1947 02:00:49,040 --> 02:00:53,200 unplayed, which I highly, highly doubt given how thin the player 1948 02:00:53,200 --> 02:00:57,120 pool is right then sure. I'm, I'm very excited to take 1949 02:00:57,120 --> 02:00:59,960 my, you know, 7 to 9 targets of 0. 1950 02:01:00,040 --> 02:01:01,920 Right. I mean, if you can get, if you, 1951 02:01:01,960 --> 02:01:05,360 if you can find somebody else, you are you going to be able to 1952 02:01:05,360 --> 02:01:09,640 find somebody else with a target projection and in a similar 1953 02:01:09,640 --> 02:01:15,880 range as him where he's going? Let me let me pull up a couple 1954 02:01:15,880 --> 02:01:19,000 guys that are going back-to-back with him. 1955 02:01:20,560 --> 02:01:22,880 I would, I would say very likely not. 1956 02:01:24,640 --> 02:01:28,000 But again, it is a pretty thin week. 1957 02:01:28,000 --> 02:01:30,560 So he might be just kind of. Kind of, yeah. 1958 02:01:31,080 --> 02:01:34,480 Then, then, then that's a sorry, I know I'm going back and forth. 1959 02:01:34,480 --> 02:01:39,520 But if that's the case, that's a that's a fair who, even though 1960 02:01:39,520 --> 02:01:41,680 he's getting drafted a lot, would be underpriced. 1961 02:01:42,040 --> 02:01:49,040 Khalil Shakur or Jordan? Addison, you do, You do Addison 1962 02:01:49,040 --> 02:01:53,080 there, I think. OK, Khalil Shakur or Calvin 1963 02:01:53,080 --> 02:02:02,800 Ridley. And Calvin Ridley, you do. 1964 02:02:02,800 --> 02:02:04,600 Calvin Ridley? No, no, no question. 1965 02:02:05,320 --> 02:02:07,840 OK, Khalil Shakira, Brian Thomas. 1966 02:02:09,000 --> 02:02:12,920 And again, Brian Thomas. Khalil Shakira. 1967 02:02:12,920 --> 02:02:16,680 Marvin Harrison. Marvin Harrison. 1968 02:02:18,360 --> 02:02:21,000 OK, here's here's one this this got to be a harder one. 1969 02:02:21,000 --> 02:02:23,080 You've answered these way too easy, Khalil. 1970 02:02:23,120 --> 02:02:25,120 Yeah, I mean, these are all good players. 1971 02:02:26,400 --> 02:02:32,240 OK, Khalil Shakira, DJ Moore. That that that one is a little 1972 02:02:32,240 --> 02:02:35,200 bit harder and where he he actually he is a good player 1973 02:02:35,200 --> 02:02:40,840 too. And but the vibes have been like 1974 02:02:40,840 --> 02:02:45,840 putrid. And who do the Bears play this 1975 02:02:45,840 --> 02:02:49,120 week? The Bears play the Patriots. 1976 02:02:50,640 --> 02:02:55,760 And yeah, I, I, I think, I think that probably is DJ Murr. 1977 02:02:56,200 --> 02:03:00,720 And now are these these are all guys I'm assuming that are all 1978 02:03:00,720 --> 02:03:05,880 are all also 100% drafted? Yeah, I mean, in the in the dog 1979 02:03:05,880 --> 02:03:08,680 bowl, yes. Just like, dude, if you're 1980 02:03:08,680 --> 02:03:11,560 getting down to guys that aren't 100% dropped in the Dog Bowl, 1981 02:03:11,560 --> 02:03:16,720 you're talking like Rakeem Jarrett, Noah Brown, Cedric 1982 02:03:16,720 --> 02:03:20,600 Wilson, Kendrick Bourne. It's not a scroll of the F down 1983 02:03:20,600 --> 02:03:23,040 week. In the Michael Pittman, No, I 1984 02:03:23,040 --> 02:03:26,640 mean the that's the thing. Like you're scrolling the F down 1985 02:03:26,640 --> 02:03:31,440 to even find a draftable player in the sixth round like Demario 1986 02:03:31,440 --> 02:03:36,000 Douglas or Khalil Shakur. No, that one's, that one's a 1987 02:03:36,000 --> 02:03:41,480 little bit more interesting. Let me look up what he's been 1988 02:03:41,480 --> 02:03:46,560 doing. I think that's pretty close. 1989 02:03:48,400 --> 02:03:50,600 I think that's pretty close. I think that's a true toss up. 1990 02:03:51,520 --> 02:03:56,520 OK. All right. 1991 02:03:56,520 --> 02:03:58,800 Those were all the notes that I had. 1992 02:03:58,800 --> 02:04:04,040 We did end up a little bit over two hours, but thank you for 1993 02:04:04,040 --> 02:04:08,800 sticking with us this evening. We hope that we were able to 1994 02:04:09,520 --> 02:04:12,760 provide you with a little bit of entertainment and distraction 1995 02:04:12,760 --> 02:04:15,920 from the election coverage that is going on. 1996 02:04:15,920 --> 02:04:19,040 I have no idea what's been happening in the last two hours. 1997 02:04:19,040 --> 02:04:21,560 And you know what? I feel great about that, Draco. 1998 02:04:22,520 --> 02:04:26,040 Yeah, I'd rather not. All right. 1999 02:04:26,040 --> 02:04:30,000 We will see you guys next week. Good luck everybody. 2000 02:04:30,840 --> 02:04:39,520 See you everybody. Hey, I'm sorry. 2001 02:04:39,520 --> 02:04:40,800 I kept. I kept having to leave. 2002 02:04:40,800 --> 02:04:41,960 I kept feeling my throat.