Hi there from Foggy Buffalo, I'm Mike Shope AKA Kenny Utah.
Thanks for joining us here on ADP Chasing.
Our heroes are in position, Davis and Jacob.
We will talk about all the news going on right now around the
NFL. There's a ton of it and I'll be
sure to keep everybody posted on the Sharks Sabres game, March
10th, 2026. This is ADP Chasing.
Welcome. ADP chasing is for When you
watch ship chasing, you go. These guys are just football
guys. I.
Have my 4% exposure blanket to stay poor actually.
Back in if it's Ashanek. It's Kerador crystal ball.
Close your eyes, you know all your entries are going to lose
anyway. Yeah, that's fair.
You're not. Going to tell me how this went I
was here it's. Anti cabal.
It's anti the best ball thought leader.
I'm obviously lying to some degree because like, I have a
lot of both of these guys. It's the most disgusting thing
you can make, but. Man.
I forget if you told me, is there an actual Kenny Utah or
was that just like a DJ Dallas? It was an RJ Maryland, RJ
Maryland, and then Johnny Utah of course is the point Break
character if he was 1/4 former college quarterback in the lore
of that movie. So of course, sort of a double,
you know, double clue. It was made-up if you're
familiar with RJ Maryland, which I I assumed you weren't.
I'm familiar with DJ Dallas, who was a real person that.
Dole, That's true. Scored on a kickoff return week
one at the Bills for. Arizona buddy DJ Dallas was
getting carries over by Shell Tooton last year.
Oh great, already to him. Well.
How many week carries did he get last year?
Like 3. Do you remember?
Do you remember the week that by Shell, Tooton was listed without
an ankle injury? But yeah, yeah, that was the
week after I thought he broke his ankle and and was very, very
sad right when he was about to break out.
So I was I was willing to accept that rug pull.
Oh, we're back now, baby. We're we certainly are.
Are we all the way back? Are we all the way back?
Jacob on Tootin. We're all the way back.
I think we're all the way back. I mean there are there are still
players they could sign. I assume they won't go into the
season with the depth chart of Tooten, Laquint Allen and DJ
Dallas. But anyone who would actually
get me to stop clicking the button is long, long gone.
Like they didn't re sign ETN. They didn't go for Walker, they
didn't go for Dowdle, they didn't even get Dobbins Algier.
So like the the most threatening guys left is like Rashad White,
who I actually hope they signed because it would keep the price
in check and I don't. He's just Laquint Allen again.
Exactly he's he's to me just like a a more name brand La
Quint. I don't fear him at all for for
Tooting if he's good I. Agree, I kind of want that just
keeps the price. Like it's, yeah, it's like
either a really dusty guy who they would just be bringing in
as like an insurance policy of like, you know, what if this guy
sucks or it's their first pick in the draft is 56.
They don't even have a first. They don't even have an early
2nd. So like, will they draft
someone? I don't know, maybe.
I don't think very highly. It is running back class.
There's no one they would draft at 56 or later that I don't
think tooten can beat. So I'm honestly hoping they add
someone because right now I am not only seeing like the
slappies celebrating the tooten, I'm seeing some mainstream
fantasy people that are like, boy, a lot of opportunity for
Bishal Tooten. I'm like, Oh no, I don't want to
be, you know, drafting with those guys because now we're.
Jeff Man's On the Fantasy Alarm is all in on Bishal Tooten in
2026. Like the last thing I want to
see, with all due respect, is like the Fantasy Footballers
make Bishal Tooten to my guy this year.
Like oh dude, if it would be apocalyptic, if we could bet it,
I want to get those 3. How high will the price get
like? I don't I never understood that
He was like some crazy slappy pick when he's going in like the
7th and eighth round. Like he this was always, it
seemed to me clear that they were most likely to let Etienne
walk. Now, they could have signed
Dowdell or they could have signed Algier.
Any of these other guys. Like I wouldn't have said that
was unlikely, but he was going to go up from here if they did
that. Like the only way that he didn't
go up was if they brought in Walker or they brought back ETN
Once Breece was going to be franchise tag, that obviously
went away. So I don't know.
It's just it was a it was to me. I enjoyed that easy layup that
we got. I don't know if we're going to
need, you know, to be to be hammering him from this point
forward because he has moved up quite a bit.
I drafted him today. I was, I was pleased to draft
him today at the 5-6 turn. I took him over Cam Scataboo,
which, yeah, I mean, exactly. I was like I.
ADP is 70, so you're right on. So I have them where?
Where do you have them ranked? Well, it was like 10 picks above
there. Where do you have them ranked?
Because I I put them right now. I did in my.
Because I was drafting. Like pick 60 and so Yep, I put
them at 49 right now. How far?
How far you guys got 55? I am at 62 but that's because we
have ADP baked in. If I just took ADP.
Out of oh, did 46 so that's so funny. 46 if I just ignored ADP,
yeah. Because I do, I do ADP baking as
well and then I check my stuff against you guys and I check my
stuff against ETR and I was like, no fucking chance.
Am I not going to be the high man on by shell tune.
So I was like, wherever they have them, I'm coming in higher
you'll be. I just I just raised him
slightly more. The ADP baking now.
I took a little bit of the ADP out like.
Because like his ADP is going to be going up so I.
Right, right. Based.
On what his ADP is going to be in three weeks, like, yeah, I
mean, I think he's going to be hitting the fifth round.
I I'm. It's not small where you want
the full ADP tie. Yeah, I mean when.
The slap, he's really get going, like, like he might get higher
than Javonte or David Montgomery.
Like who knows how hard we'll slap?
I mean, surprised to know that you're higher on by shell tooten
than etr.com is. Oh, it wouldn't.
It wouldn't surprise me. I'm I'm surprised, I'm surprised
that you got the man's shot in without also including and here
are my top 580 sitcoms moments because you know, you got to you
got to make sure when it's the heat of free agency to also, you
know, cover all the bases. Correct, it's true.
With the esoterica, well, the first slide is running back
heavy, so let's take a look. Pat, what do you think?
Kenneth Walker, Davis. Get ready.
New Chief Ken Walker, Travis eats the end of the Saints.
JK Dobbins back in Denver. Gainwell to Tampa, Dowdell to
Pittsburgh to replace him. Tyler Algier and James Conner,
Arizona. Isaiah Pacheco.
OK, Detroit, Alvin Kamara. Who knows?
Let's start with Davis here on on Walker and whether the Chiefs
will be fundamentally different now.
I mean, they're going to be fundamentally different in the
sense that no running back and has a greater percentage of
their carries going over 15 yards.
Most recent two years, I believe Jonathan Taylor is 1 and Kenneth
Walker is 2. The Kansas City Chiefs, the most
recent three years, rank 32nd, 32nd and 32nd, an explosive run
rate. Isaiah Pacheco had one explosive
run last year. Kareem Hunt had two.
Prashard Smith had zero. Their leading explosive rusher,
their quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
So I, I, I think it's pretty clear this was an organizational
thing. That said, we just can't ask
mullems to do this anymore, even if he is literally the greatest
of all time. We cannot have the league's
worst run game. Like to have the league's worst
run game is actually crazy like it it.
It is kind of crazy. You have to try.
You have to try as. Yeah, you do with this kind of a
quarterback like if you you have to try like it took effort to
get here. It took a first round pick to
Claude over over Jonathan Taylor and some other mistakes along
the way as well. CEH, who by the way, Davis got
carries against the Bills in 2025 as well.
I I'm telling you man, it it you have to try to be this bad and
given the two options, draft Jeremiah Love with the 9th pick
or pay Kenneth Walker $14.4 million with $28.7 million
guaranteed. Given the state of their roster,
I don't think it's close now. If this was Chris Jones was 28,
Travis Kelsey was 31, a fully healthy Tyree Kale was going to
sign for a veteran minimum. Mcduffie's contract wasn't up.
Like all this stuff, like they were a good team and it was just
a weird year. I say take love, but given the
state of how much they just need, I'm telling you guys,
there's going to be a fifth round rookie that Kansas City
takes who's going to be starting the AFC divisional round.
Probably 2 honestly. Like they are so hard up for
good players and I think this is really.
Their own. He's a bull.
He's an optimist. Yeah.
Jacob, you had a good thread on this of, you know, this being a
good signing. I'm, I'm very much aligned with
you on this. Do you want to explain your
thoughts? Yeah, I mean, look, I wrote
thinking about thinking today was just Chiefs slobbering.
So like it was right off Davis's alley.
I just talked about how much I loved the Mcduffie trade for
them. I talked about how much I love
the Walker signing. Not nothing, but Chiefs optimism
for my corner. I I think with it's, it's clear
to me you just like what Davis was kind of laying out.
Look at the free agent deals that are signed.
We're going to get to the wide receiver slide.
At some point you have to overpay, you know, C players as
other B players, B players as other A players.
Jalen Naylor got a contract that would be equal to top of the
line running backs this year. You want to be spending your
free agent money on the top end players at the undervalued
positions as safety at linebacker to your offensive
line running back. And you need to be drafting your
wide receivers and your edge rushers.
I love what the Chiefs did there and I think that Walker is just
the absolute ideal fit. He has the number one yards per
carry among running backs if they get one or more yards
before contact. And the Seahawks were kind of
using him in a way that was trying to keep people in the
box. They were like, we got to run
the ball enough to keep guys in the box so we can throw against
these favorable box counts. Now, I don't think that you're
going to be able to do that when you have Patrick Holmes.
I think teams will still keep the boxes light.
So what you're instead looking forward to me is a running back
who can punish you massively if you leave the boxes too light.
And so I think Walker's life is about to get changed for the
better. I think he's an absolutely
perfect fit. And yeah, I have him ranked
super optimistically after the signing.
I have him all the way up at 14 overall in my My Expose free
Agency rank. That's where I put him.
I also put him at 14. And you think Davis there will
be a, what do you say, fifth round running back compliments?
I mean, who plays on 3rd down? Does Walker play on 3rd down?
Ever. Ever heard of a young a young
man by the name of Kareem Hunt? Yeah.
The last good running back they had.
Yeah, So I have him in 19. There's no ADP in that.
That's just where we think he he should be.
I, I don't really, I don't want to be like the the bear here
necessarily, but it don't, would you say?
Be the bear if you want to be the bear.
I mean, I don't really want to be that Like, I I took him
today. It was like him and like Derrick
Henry was there and I was like, I'm like, I'm getting young.
Derrick Henry thinks it's like happy to do this, you know, in
the second round. I don't the fact that he
probably isn't going to play, you know, third downs have a
true workhorse role. I think the thing with Kenneth
Walker, this hasn't always been true, but usually he's a pretty
boom bust runner. If you look at his his stuff
year, year to year and look, man, Kareem Hunt was really good
in short yardage last year. So like if you, if you're
thinking, hey, why don't we just pair this guy with Kareem Hunt,
who's like really good in short yardage.
He can, he can handle pass blocking stuff.
It does feel a little bit like Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker
there where there's like going to be a little bit of a split.
Now Walker's going to be, I think he's just set up so well.
He's going to be explosive. I'm fully on board with him as a
second round pick. Now.
When you get up into that early second round pick, the
opportunity cost starts to get a little stronger.
That's where I'm I'm not quite where you guys are at that he
should be the 14th pick off the board.
If OK, do you change your mind if instead of Kareem Hunt it is
Samaj P Ryan as the as the other running back or or Miles A?
Little bit, a little bit, yeah, a little bit for sure.
Because I think part of it for Hunt, the thing I worry about
with Walker is the, is the goal line stuff like am I am I having
to to deal with him coming off the field sometimes on on
passing situations and he's not going to be in on goal line
stuff like last year to 37% success rate per NFL next Gen.
I think it was kind of in that range.
Like you want 40% or higher in that metric to to be kind of
like a consistent, you know, in between the tackles runner that
that coaches are are probably going to be willing to trust and
just hasn't really been that guy pretty much his whole career.
He did hit 40% two years ago. Before that he was in the low
30s. So that's the part that just
worries me a bit as far as spending, you know, an early
second round pick on him, but obviously a huge winner.
His charge for me are like hilarious every year and they
look the same every year. The like things I put together
that I call the stacked box. Like he's the only guy where
he'll always have two or three metrics that are like bright
green, first in the league, second in the league, third in
the league, and he'll have like three other metrics where he's
like 40th, 45th. It's just he's such a boom or
bust dude. But I mean, even, I guess my
view is I think I'm more off bullish on the world.
I think they spent so much money on him.
There's like a justification element to it that I think he
would have to like try and fail miserably at goal line work to
not get it. Like I think they're going to
want a guy they spent 15,000,000.
Dollars. You know what?
I actually agree with Jacob because there's a lot of chatter
around the team, fans, local media like Brett Veach sucks,
like Brett Veach, like go look at, go look at the Chiefs 2023
draft. Like every pick is is they, like
every pick is a miss. Welcome to that world.
Well, I mean, Brandon Bean was Big Baller bean 18 months ago,
and now it's quite. Different.
Well, well, actually a very unlike the relationship that
Brandon Bean has had with Bills fans, Chiefs fans have hated
Veach the entire time. Why?
A lot of it. Well, honestly, do you do you
want? The truth is a lot of it stems
from the Clyderwood Solaire pick is a big part and the Nicole
Hardman pick 2 picks that that Chiefs fans have just like hated
at the time. DK and chapter over JT.
Yeah, Chiefs fans hated it at the time, have hated it since
then. They credit basically the the
fact that the Chiefs have had a good to great defense all to
Spags. Like they're like, you know,
basically you give Spags kind of anyone and he'll give you the
11th best defense in the NFL. And then obviously the offense
is, well, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to to have a
good offense with Mahone. So, so basically everyone looks
at we have terrible tackles and our one good edge rusher Dorsey
brought in. So what?
What have you done for me, Brett Beech?
Yeah, comment here are they really didn't take out a running
back they just paid 43 mil for on goal line situations for
cream Hunt. Like, to me it it would, I'm not
saying the very first goal line touch cream Hunt's jogging on
the field. But like, yeah, if he's not
getting the job done, they'll probably put it in the guy who's
really. Good for a word.
Cream make make the the the even better point than it about being
non merit based. Cream Hunt is the best short
yardage rusher. Yeah, he's been really good.
Far none in success rate better than cream hunt the last two
seasons on the Chiefs better third and 4th down goal to go or
short yardage success rate than the tush push the.
Other thing is that like we, I mean we do this every year.
We talk about this all the time, like the the whole thing of
like, well, they just paid them all this money.
So therefore they like he must be used this way.
Like doesn't work like that. It never works like that.
First of all, like it works like that.
Maybe a slightly more on the chiefs where Andy Reid's got so
much power, but there's AGM right?
They bring him in, they hand them off to the coaches.
The coaches are kind of like, I don't love these ingredients you
you cooked up for. It's like and this stuff only
protects guys for so long. Like it's like, are they really
going to, you know, not feed Xavier worthy?
Like, no, they're not. He's not very good.
You know, like there's there's like only.
So much you do with the. Guys not working out so.
I think this is a different scenario like like, well, yeah,
I mean the holder report that was like the Colts are going to
get Alec Pierce 8 to 10 targets a game.
Now It's like, OK, buddy, like I don't think you can just do
that. But like whether or not you play
Kareemont or Ken Walker on 3rd and one at the goal line is like
a very active the team actually can choose this like you in a
way that you can't just choose to get Alec Pierce 10 targets
like that is. The team could choose it and I
would expect I would expect that like I don't expect Walker to be
again, we have him 19. It's not like we hate him, but
you know, to talk about getting him up into the early 2nd.
That's when I start thinking about like the floor, the
wrists, how this doesn't work out and I already don't think
like I don't you guys think he's just going to be like a three
down workhorse like that would surprise me.
That's. Not I don't think he's going to
play on 3rd downs and I don't think it fucking matters at all.
Of course, I think, I think he's going to be 1/3 a three down
workhorse. To the extent that it matters.
I, I, I agree with what Davis says mostly.
Like the idea of, of playing on passing downs, like in the most
literal sense doesn't matter that much.
If you only sub out on like third and eight, third and 10,
that's usually like we're talking like 8 receptions over
the course of a year. But like, if you play in the
two-minute drill, if you play in comeback mode, that's the stuff
that. Matters what it.
Means I think he's going to not be 1/3 down back in the most
literal sense of on 3rd and 12. I don't think he's on the field.
I think he's going to be a figurative 3 down back in the
sense of I expect him to get 60 to 70 targets, play 75 to 80% of
the snaps, be on the field in comeback mode, be on the field
in the two-minute drill. Walker or James?
Cook. Who also doesn't play on 3rd
down ever. Yeah, I mean Cook, Cook is more,
Cook is different in that he, like his raw snaps are always
weird, although they were way better last year.
But they run the ball so much and he's such a focus whenever
he's out there that I we've seen it now enough that I kind of
just buy it. It took me a while to believe
that the Bills would make their team about feeding James Cook
and having a Josh Allen be a secondary player.
Like, you know, a counter punch, but they that they are into it.
I don't know why it's dumb. Do you do you guys think some?
Part of this analysis is baked in with the fact that we all
have chief psychosis because they've had the weirdest
backfield rotation in the league since Kareem Hunt got waved mid
season for kicking a woman. No, because we've we've been
taking Pacheco like reasonably high.
Like he's not, it's not like Pacheco's been.
I mean, the, the market like Pacheco's been drafted pretty
high. Like the the last point I wanted
to make on the Walker thing is like the like Rashid Shahid just
got resigned, right? And they're like, so Rashid
Shahid, what's the deal there? Like he just thought he was such
a huge impact. We had to bring him back.
Like such a huge impact. Yeah, there was a guy like
barely played. On that, yeah.
Yeah, well, but that's to me that's that's part of the
disconnect when we as like fantasy players think about this
stuff versus NFL teams like they think Rashid Shaheed made a huge
impact and they needed to sign into a new. $51 million deal
well. We played the guy, so.
Okay, so that's. Why receivers cost like that's
like if you want to keep Rashid Jahid, you just you have to pay
that. I mean, I think that's an
excellent value deal, honestly. For what do you bring special?
Special Sure, it's a it's a solid.
Deal, but like they paid, they paid Walker like they went out.
When's the last time they paid a contract like this for running
back? I don't think not in the never
in the Mahomes era, right? The only other major investment
they've made was CEH is a first round draft pick.
I mean, that's a pretty. Wise, that's a pretty.
Big investment, first round pick and now you're kind of like for.
Sure, you know what I mean. And they did play him a lot.
He just sucked. Right, he did suck.
Let's get. Like out of the out of the gate,
they gave him a ton of work. He was just terrible.
I I don't expect Walker to be terrible.
I think he's fantastic. No, but Walker's a very
different back than CEH who who was coming out or receiving
back. So like as a purely as a fantasy
profile, like Walker, you know, like CEH, had he been any good
at all, would have been very fantasy friendly, right.
Walker, I think it's just a little bit the profile itself.
It's, it's relying on explosive runs and, and he, your, your
point about him being such a great fit.
I completely agree with the explosiveness is what they need
to add to this offense. They don't necessarily need a
back who's there to do everything.
They need a guy who they can hand the ball off to who's going
to hit explosive runs. And, and he will do that.
Like, and that's why I think he's a good pick at the back end
of the second round. When we start to think about
like who's going to be a fantasy superstar worthy of an early
second round pick? I'm kind of like there's a few
other guys I'd rather rather bet on than him.
Let's get to ETN. What does Davis.
What is your read on what New Orleans wants from him Every.
They wanted they wanted Alvin Kamara, but instead of being 30,
being 26, like a a kind of chunk runner, I guess.
I mean, obviously Etn's peaks are nowhere close to to Kamara's
peaks, but I, I think that Kelvin Moore, I mean, Kellen
Moore's best offenses have had a running back sort of like this.
His worst offense was the Chargers year when Eckler was
past it. He's Kellen Moore has engineered
offenses that has led the NFL in points scored twice, two
different locations, kind of like that.
I've always been a Kellen Moore slappy much more than the market
after everyone soured on him. So I'm personally pretty bullish
about this, although we do have the dangling participle here in
the sense that Alvin Kamar has not said he's retiring.
He's not said I'm going to be a St.
He's not said I want to be traded.
Like we, we have no clarity here on on him.
I I am imagining Kamar not being on the team but kind of a bummer
for Kamar to play elsewhere. He did say last year he would
retire rather than be traded. He did.
Yeah. Now the reality is hitting it.
Always does eventually. And he'll be giving up a lot of
money to not play right because his contract is so big.
Yeah, they restructured it so that he can so that their cap
takes less of a hit this year if he goes somewhere else or
retires. So there's a lot of smoke that
he won't be on the Saints at this point.
I don't know, Like the tough part far for me to read is, is
it because he's going to retire? Is it because they're going to
end up trading him elsewhere? It could be the type of thing
where they just sit on it, see what happens after the draft.
Maybe there's a team that, you know, thinks they're going to,
maybe he goes to Jacksonville or something like that.
You know, like there's a team that's like, oh, we kind of
struck out in terms of getting anybody else here that can be
veteran depth, but. I wouldn't give.
An amazing mirror. To the Jags.
Yeah, yeah. But like that type of that type
of backfield will probably exist.
It might not be the Jags, but right, someone would probably be
like, oh, you know, now sending a six for Camaro doesn't seem so
bad because we. Didn't Vegas.
I mean, I'm not getting my James Connor at.
All again please Again please give me.
Yeah, Vegas would be good if. They're next to any running back
I would like to draft, please. Vegas would reunite him with
with Kubrick as well, so that would actually work out.
Yeah, I'm. Hurting for that one.
Yeah, I think he has a solid pick now.
I don't, I don't really have any super strong thoughts about him.
No, I haven't ranked the exact same as you at 32.
I think of him similarly to Josh Jacobs.
I think he's going to get a ton of work.
He's going to be fine. He's not going to be like Uber,
Uber efficient, but he's going to get all the goal line work.
He's going to get basically all of the work for the New Orleans
Saints, I suspect, and probably be like in the 16 can.
I be range. Can I be the voice of the boomer
here on on Dobbins? Yeah, watch them with the 165
Pat is that, is that current? Yeah, I think it is.
I I I haven't been 96. Yeah, I Corinne, I love you.
I love Zach. I love everyone there so much.
This is just, it's just, it's not right.
It's it's he's got to be at least in like the one 10s, I
think. I know he sucks.
I know. I mean, I think Zach is.
But he doesn't suck. He doesn't suck.
JK Dobbins. He's he's like one of the most
efficient runners in the NFL every time he's on a football
field. I got him up a bit.
And I know Zach has. Been I mean, isn't he like,
isn't he like minus money to just outscore Harvey next year?
Yeah, but he did all. Of no he's not.
I don't think he is. He's because he he just suffered
another season ending lower body injury.
He suffered 17 of them, and every time he comes back, yeah.
That's yeah. That runs out too.
That's we just never have to worry about lower body injuries
with JK Dobbins. He's the only guy that doesn't
that. Doesn't.
He always makes it through a seat.
He's gonna get injured again, but before he gets injured
again, he's gonna average 5.1 yards per carry.
OK, I mean, sure, you're probably right.
I don't know. I mean, I think the, the, the
Harvey thing's been strange to me because he was pretty good
like and especially as a pass catcher he was, he had, I was
looking at it, comparing it to scataboo, right.
So scataboo had 3.8 pass, 3.8 receptions just from week 3 to
week 7. So that throws out the first two
games and it wasn't really getting that much work, although
he still pretty involved there. I think he drops like 3.3 if you
include those games and then you throw out week 8 because that's
the the game he got hurt didn't have a ton of carries so or
receptions. So he's like Harvey's at 3.4 in
the non Dobbins games he was like 1.39 yards per outrun.
Pretty good. Not like amazing, but like
pretty good. We're talking about a rookie who
was drafted in the second round last year.
And then you've got JK Dobbins, who you know, relative to some
of the other options here that the the Broncos could have
brought in. I do not find very scary.
Again, this guy like keeps getting hurt and is coming off
another injury, like we a foot injury where he might not even
be ready for week 1 potentially. So, you know, they, we knew they
were going to add somebody. We've had, you know, in our
stuff. Harvey's always, we've always
had room for another back here because they've made that
crystal clear. They're going to add somebody.
But they maybe seemed like they were interested in in ETN or or
Walker or whatever. That would have been, I think, a
pretty big problem. This I don't know.
I'm I'm not that excited to chase Dobbins.
I'm really not. I'm not.
You probably are a little too weird, little too low, but one
one 10s like you guys can have them.
I'm not interested in that. I'm I'm not excited to draft him
and he won't be a big part of My Portfolio, but like I just like,
I think if you're if, if you. Can't ignore him.
If you are. Preserving the NFL and rushing
yards when he got hurt last year.
Yeah. You can't ignore him.
Davis is the point. I wasn't at timeshare.
Yeah, he was. He was just the Broncos running
back and Harvey was like a pass catcher.
Harvey. Harvey was like Harvey was
Pierre Thomas. Yeah, Harvey's role was fun and
he was good at that role. Like he, like I agree with
everything you said, Pat, I think he was.
He was really fun as a pass catcher.
He had a few really nice breakaway runs.
I loved Harvey as a prospect, but like overall last year, he
was not good as a rusher. Vision issues struggled, success
rate was terrible. A lot of the the creation
metrics were really rough. And then, you know, Dobbins got
hurt and Harvey took over and he had a really fantasy friendly
role. But like, they played the Bills
in oh wow. Apparently the Max Crosby trade
is over as we're discussing this, which is wild.
The Baltimore Ravens have backed out of our trade agreement for
Max Crosby. We have no further comment at
this time from Adam Schefter. And it is the real Schefter
account. It's not Adam Schefler.
Rappaport at the same time as always.
Wow. Well, that's wild.
Anyway, I'm going to let's get back on the Broncos.
But my point is they they went into the playoffs, they played
Buffalo, who like hemorrhages yards on the run.
They didn't want to run the ball at all because they didn't trust
Harvey to run the ball the next week again.
They didn't trust him to take on a full rush and then all off
season instead of it being like Harvey showed some things.
We can't wait to put more on his plate going in for year two.
It was running back as a major need.
We tried to trade for David Montgomery.
We didn't get it done. We tried to sign Travis Etienne.
We got out bid. We gave JK Dobbins 8 million
guaranteed and we're and are expected to add another running
back in the draft. Like it's it seems to me that
they I don't know if they hate Harvey but they don't seem to
have any intention of expanding him beyond his satellite role is
I think a reasonable read. Now could Dobbins get hurt again
and Harvey plays great in that role and is a big hit for sure.
Could Harvey show up and look better in week one, Week 2 on
inside runs and he he gets more from Dobbins over the course of
the year for sure. But I think that their plan is
JK, Dobbins is our lead running back this year and Harvey is a
change of pace guy. I have Harvey ranked ahead of
Dobbins, but I I think Dobbins should be drafted as the as a
guy who's gonna have a really major role, not like as a
backup. There also might be a structural
component to this analysis right when you look at ADP.
I mean you have literally only three players between Jadarian
Price at one O 2 and Dobbins at 1:34.
Gimme Gimme Dobbins over Jadarian price.
There speaks for me. It's it's very nice.
No, I wanted Aaron Price there. At running back in those two or
almost 3 rounds I would say. I think with Dobbins, you, you
have, you have all the issues of this guy, you know, who's dealt
with just an insane amount of injuries.
At some point Dobbins is going, we're just going to be like,
there's no juice. Like like how many lower body
injuries? Can you?
It will definitely happen at some point, but it doesn't mean
that. Like, it doesn't mean it's gonna
happen now and it doesn't mean that it doesn't make Harvey a
good pick, is what I'm saying. It's like it's Dobbins, just
like a probably a starting running back.
Like I they, I don't think they like Harvey all that much.
Seems older but 27 in December by the way.
Dobbins, yeah, he is 27. He does seem older though, and I
think there's a reason for that that reason.
For me he seems 33. Yeah, yeah.
I mean. He doesn't have the NFL miles
for his age, but he has other things.
Right. And you do have the, the thing
with Dobbins, even last year, not any kind of pass catching
juice. That's not if he had 1.1
receptions per game. So you're, you're dealing with
like with Dobbins, you go in there and you're like, oh,
Dobbins had a lot of rushing yards last year before he got
hurt again. And then no receiving
whatsoever. 0.32 yards per outrun last year with the
Broncos, like he's just not going to be involved there at
all. So you're you're getting a
pretty limited profile. And then even if he is what you
guys are saying, that's a nice, that's a nice little hit, you
know, in the in the 110 range or something where we're taking
generic price goes around pick 100.
So, you know, 110 would actually be a little bit of a, a little
bit of a discount from where you're getting price.
And Pat, and what I'm saying is between one O 2 and 134, it's
Kenneth Gainwell, Jonah Coleman, Jordan Mason, JCM.
If you want to, if you feel like you need a running back there,
you don't have many options. I mean, I'd take them over JCM,
you know, take them over that. So, you know, there's a line for
me, but yeah, I don't know. I mean, I it's like, yes, I
understand that at the beginning of ARJ Harvey's rookie season,
JK Dobbins was the clear lead runner.
He didn't have any kind of pass catching stuff, and Harvey did.
And then Harvey, that part really grew for Harvey once
Dobbins was out. This is a a coach who's thrown
to his running backs every year. Harvey, like that was a big part
of his profile and appeal coming out.
I recognize that he isn't a very consistent runner.
He's going to be a boom bust runner probably his entire
career. Like he he was very his success
rate was a legit red flag last year.
Not Yeah, Harvey Harvey's success rate was a legit red
flag. Wasn't a very efficient runner.
This makes sense as far as putting a backfield together,
but I don't think that, like Dobbins is a very great bet to
hold down what he was able to do in the beginning part of
Harvey's rookie season, in Harvey's second season.
That's that's the part to me where I'm like, we only kind of
saw one thing. We never saw what happens after
Harvey gets a chance to spread his wings a little bit.
Well, what happened after Harvey decided to spread his wings a
little bit? As the Broncos said, we are
going to make damn well sure that we had as many running
backs as. Possible.
Now, that's sure they didn't. They didn't mean they could have
paid $15 million to Kenneth Walker.
They could have a little more sure that.
I mean they were in on $2,000,000 to drive ETN.
Widely reported being in on ETN. They they did try.
True, they were in, but I I don't think they.
Did sign Dobbins and and it's also reported they're going to
draft another running back. Like who?
Another running back in this class means almost nothing
unless they literally. Take a carrying price.
No, it doesn't mean right. Well, it doesn't.
Mean we're talking day three. Sense of that's why I'm happy
for JK Dobbins like in his price, but it to me it just
communicates that they're not looking to spread RJ Harvey's
wings. They're they're viewing running
back as a major need for them. Yeah, I don't think that.
Again, I think this will be a committee, but give me the guy
who I think is much better bet to be explosive at this point in
their respective careers and catches the ball.
Give me that guy. What are we doing with straight?
Straight, straight up, sure, but like, I don't know, I what what
is the gap between you that you have them in picks like 100?
I just think that's really, really why.
Yeah, I moved Dobbins up a bit, I think.
I think the Harvey I'm I'm pretty happy with where we have
Harvey. Where do you where do you have
Harvey? I I have Harvey at 74.
Where do you have him? I met 7067.
OK, it's really Dobbins. We're we're further.
Apart. Well, it's really Dobbins we're
arguing about, yeah. What are we doing with Arizona?
I'm an Algier guy. I mean Algiers the only one I
would draft, but I I'm not the upside of an early down running
back on what might be the worst team in the NFL is pretty rough
if I'm but he he deserves to be. I think clearly the lead in ADP.
Do we even have reporting on how much of A Peacock Connor has to
take to stay? With I still have not seen
anything. I'm guessing it was a ton based
on them signing Algier. Yeah, I, I don't know.
I think it's, I think it's a bit of a mess, but I would take
Algier. Yeah, A.
Lot I mean. I I get Algiera one O 2 so
almost exactly aligned with where Pat had him.
But where I am, I am at one O 6 and I don't even think I have
Connor or Benson in my top 200. So Connor, we have a 140 and I
still think is a pretty solid pick.
Wow. OK, Yeah.
That may be moving in 150, but I would take Connor, I mean.
I I would I would have no interest there.
I I. Think we just.
Get. Caught.
See, Here's the thing though. So there is Deepak Chona had a a
tweet about Benson saying he never returned from this
meniscus tear which is a concern for potential like cartilage
stuff especially. Benson's A 0.
I I saw that I think Benson's. On yeah, I'm not interested in
Benson and that and I was taking some Benson before because I was
like, oh, maybe this is his backfield.
Obviously that's shifted big time and I'm not interested in
in chasing that at this point. I I think Benson is the loser
here. I think when you have a guy like
Connor in a situation like this, right where like, oh, Benson,
you got, you know, once Benson gets back, he's probably the
lead back and they're like, let's renegotiate with James
Conner and get his number down so that this makes sense.
And then let's go get Tyler Algier.
And again, this is a very thin running back class.
So in in a lot of these cases, if you're not taking Jeremiah
Love, we're talking about like maybe 1 landmine in in Jadarian
Price, maybe 2IN in Jonah Coleman.
There's not a lot of like guys who are going to come shake up
backfields in a huge way. I think it's probably Connor as
your, as your kind of contingent handcuff backup here.
I I don't think we can expect much from Benson and then
Algier. I mean, this is a 2 down run.
This is a guy in the Dobbins mold as well.
So with Connor, I think you potentially get some pass
catching stuff too. Again, though, I am kind of
treating Benson like it's it's not happening.
See, I I think I'm viewing it as one of Benson or Connor probably
isn't on the team and the third down running back is a running
back to be named later because we haven't seen Connor do any of
the pass down stuff in a long time.
Like he hasn't done that in Arizona ever.
It's been it's like back to Pittsburgh that he was playing
on 3rd downs and two minutes stuff like he he was that was
Chase Edmunds role initially. It was Benson last year, year
before it was Dean, Mercado was playing Mercado.
Yeah, yeah. So like, I don't know, that's I
don't know that that's Connor's stuff.
Like I I think I would view it as Algiers the starter, but he's
like a very low value empty calorie starter.
Honor, I think is the backup with a chance to maybe mix in.
But it's like, is this my favorite handcuff in the world?
A 31 year old on a terrible team with an early down profile, like
coming off a major injury? Like I'll take any other backup
actually, when I'm not even that 100% sure he's the backup.
It could be Trey Benson. Like I would I would way rather
have like Tank Bigsby if I'm just taking a backup than James
Conner are. You sure he's the the backup
like? The big question is what what
are they doing? So it's Brissett, like, OK,
fine. I mean, you don't have a better
idea. You're going to win four games,
five games again, why would you need either of these guys?
Like, what's the point? Why wouldn't you just sort of
roll out rookies and flash? And I don't know, it's I, I'm
with Jacob on that LGR analysis. What do you need James Conner
for? I mean, raise, just retire his
number, have a ceremony, get on with it.
Well, if Benson's nothing, then that that's what you need him
for. You need to back up running
back. For what?
For what reason to to get 8 carries and a 30?
I thought, I thought Connor was getting cut like I thought
Connor was going to be elsewhere and they renegotiated the deal
so he could stay that to me, like I know the thing would
still cut him, but why do that if that's the plan there?
Maybe they're going to see what happens in the draft.
They'll cut him after. You know, it's definitely
possible, but I don't know it's. Why bother with?
Any I'm not, I'm not saying it's likely he'll get caught.
I just, I, I don't know. I, I think it's, I guess I'm
just looking at it as Algiers, the starter and one of the least
valuable starters. I think whoever is the RB2 is
one of the least valuable RB2's and I don't even know 100% sure
who it is. So like, why would I want to
draft the Arizona Cardinals? RB2 is is more my take on it.
Well, we've covered a couple of the next slides already, Kansas
City's backfield with Kenneth Walker if you want to take a
peek at that. And then as it happens, Camara
is included in the Jacksonville slide.
So Jacob, you know, cross your fingers there.
There they are. ETM, the New Orleans Tooting and
then Camara. Any final thoughts on some of
the running back stuff until we before we get to the receivers?
Not for me. OK, Wide receiver news Alec
Pierce, Jacob, we'll get right to you in a second here.
What it called DJ Moore. I'm.
I'm ready to go on him if you want.
Romeo Dobbs, Michael Pittman to Pittsburgh, Wandale Robinson to
Tennessee. Rashid Shaheed stays in Seattle,
big money. Mike Evans to San Francisco.
That was the dream here, but that didn't happen.
Jalen Naylor to Vegas. Sky Moore.
Hi. Sky Moore, welcome to the.
Sky's up. And then Brian Thomas, Junior,
staying or not staying in Jacksonville.
Jacob, you were honest, you said weeks ago on this show.
Pierce will stay. Pittman will go.
You were right. Held held the line on that.
I mean, we paid him just an absurd amount of money.
Wow. I, I don't know.
I've already talked enough about how in the what I am and how the
Indianapolis Colts played this offseason.
I, I don't need to do that diatribe again.
I'm happy that Alec Pierce is still on my team.
I I guess even if I probably wouldn't sign that contract, I,
I don't know the the whole the offseason talking point on the
Stephen Holder, they're going to get him 8 to 10 targets per game
quote is going to be hilarious. This is like an all time beat
writer fantasy projections tweet.
Like I mean, there's no Michael Pittman there and they did pay a
bunch of money. So I'm sure in their mind they
are going to design more for him.
And I would expect that he sees more targets per game than last
year marginally. I think it's probably pretty
reasonable. But the reality is like he's
already getting a lot of the targets he's best at.
He's not going to be the one running the choice routes on 3rd
down. That's what Josh Downs thought.
He's not going to be the one that they use as the index of
their RPO game. That's the tight end position is
Tyler Warren's job. So I still think he is what he
is, which is a really elite, deep threat who's expanded his
intermediate role a bit on dig routes and comebacks and things.
Yeah, I'd have a hard time drafting where he's going, but
he's a really nice real life player and it is what it is. 83
Leg Up Pick. 75 ADP Alec Pierce. I'm also exactly at 83.
So, yeah, I think, you know, obviously he gets this big
contract. The Colts managed to convince
him to stay. He you know, he says I'm
leaving. They're like, Oh my God, we're
going to lose Alec Pierce. What are we going to do?
And they make sure they bring him back.
I mean, I do think they probably have an offense that's a little
bit more Alec Pierce focus. It would be hard not to they
they got rid of Michael Pittman. You know, I don't think
literally every Pittman and and, you know, I don't think every
Downs and and Warren are going to be soaking up all those
Pitman targets and some of them will go to Pierce, right.
So, yeah, I mean, at the same time, I mean, he's he's kind of
who he is. I saw Matt Harmon charted him
and he was like, yeah, kind of kind of looked like Alec Pierce.
You know, he's he's Alec Pierce. You know, I I don't think that
you can kind of like just make him a number one.
I know he's talking like he wants to be a number one and all
this stuff. I'd be a little bit more
interested if he had gone somewhere else.
I, I'm, I don't know, like what, what is the, what's the, the
state of the cults right now? Jacob, like Daniel Jones wants
50 million a year. Are you going to rescind the tag
and sign Kyler? What Like what's?
No, we're not. Well, we're not going to do that
because we're not smart. We're, we're, I, I, I've been
consistent upon this and I think I've been backed up is that what
we're going to do is we're going to sign Daniel Jones to a
contract. We shouldn't and he will play
Week 1 and play badly. And I, I maintain that you've
been pretty good. Nothing this happened this
offseason has pushed me off of they're signing.
Pierce and they're tagging Jones.
Here we are. I did say we're signing.
From a great place. And we're irresponsibly signing
Daniel Jones, and I maintained that throughout.
You didn't cut Pittman, but you traded him.
We'll give. It to you we traded him for, not
for nothing. Or nothing, Yeah.
We traded him to turn our seven into a six.
Yeah. That's disgusting from a bill
standpoint to see, by the way. I mean just yeah, I mean, the
the I couldn't have just done that.
Why couldn't the bills of? No, you gotta, you gotta buy,
you gotta buy the top on DJ Moore, who I thought was more
likely to be cut than to. Play for the Bears.
In the coming. Season.
Let's talk about DJ Moore because here's the thing that
shocked me the most all day of anything is I didn't know any of
Pat's rankings before I made mine.
It's funny that we've had two that have been the exact same on
Pearson ETN. I have DJ Moore ranked higher
than legendary upside. I never thought I would have DJ
Moore ranked higher than anyone my.
What a moment in. The National Football League, I
have them all the way up at 200 or I have them at 69.
Nice, nice 69 ranking for DJ Moore.
So why? Why do you hate DJ more so much,
Pat? For once.
I mean, I'm going. To move him down.
Yeah, you should move him down. Probably is why?
Because this guy's not it's it's it's been so bad, man.
And then like. You've been so right, is what
you're saying. You've been so right, you've
been so right. This guy, he's giving up on
routes. Like it doesn't make any sense
that they did this. I know that this is one of those
classic, you know the comment earlier about like, well, they
just paid all this forum like they surely have to use them.
Like we play these rankings are for BBM and big board and those
types of tournaments we're playing.
We're you know, all the money's at the end of the year.
It's like the commitment that an idiotic GM, let's be honest, I
mean, this guy has no idea what he's doing and it just doesn't
mean that much. Once we get to the end of the
season, it'll be helpful in the beginning of the year.
I'm sure they'll have some plays drawn up.
We're going to see some cool might be a kind of a cool screen
in Week 2, but I don't think that stuff's sticking around.
And Moore is just he's falling off a lot.
Like he had 1.24 yards per hour run last year, 1.44 the year
before that. Last year I was in a Ben Johnson
offense like that. This is a pretty favorable place
to play football. And he was useless.
And so then he goes, he goes to a much worse offensive mind in
in Joe Brady. Like, I don't, I don't think Joe
Brady's like bottom the barrel, but he's not Ben Johnson.
And yeah, there's, there's, there's targets for sure.
But like on on plays where they're all on the field, is DJ
Moore better at earning a target than Khalil Shakur or Dalton
Kincaid? You know, we've got health stuff
with Kincaid. We've got, we've got, we've got
route stuff with Shakur. But I'm just like, what am I
even getting from a talent perspective here at this point?
Well, and also here's another thing, the catchable target rate
stuff gets brought up with DJ Moore a lot.
He's he's ridiculously hard to throw to because he he loves to
improvise on on his Rd. So he's never where you think
he's going to be. He's where he.
Wants great, great train. So and so the catchable target
rate is always going to be a little bit wonky because you're
playing a guessing game with where DJ Moore is going to be on
the field. But anyways, DJ Moore 2020
through 2023 was maybe not like an elite wide receiver one, but
was at least like a lower end NFL wide receiver one.
Was always has always been great as the ball in hand after the
cash player, but also was like a legitimately good if not elite
man covered beater. Could play any of the three wide
receiver positions on the football field.
Could win intermediate, could win deep.
That stuff has mostly been once dried up.
Like take away the the fatigue effort route, improv stuff that
drives me crazy. Like just watch him in raps
versus press and coverage on the outside trying to win deep.
He doesn't win consistently anymore in the way that he used
to in 2020 through 2023. And so he's kind of a
intermediate elite ball and hand yak guy, which is funny because
the Bills have built an entire team of short area ball and head
yak. Guys.
So if you were to say like, we need to go get a guy who can
actually win deep and intermediate and do the true
wide receiver one things, I just don't think that that's DJ
Moore. I think he's like closer to Debo
Samuel than the way that he is perceived.
But I mean, it's obviously for his specific fantasy value.
It's an A+ landing spot. You couldn't ask for a better
opportunity for sure than Buffalo.
So I've moved him up, but I I don't love the real life signing
for Buffalo and I I doubt that I'll be ahead of ADP on him
where and stop because I mean, I've seen a lot of people
already saying the the the the other side of the slap sis is
all in on the DJ Moore will outscore Luther burden this
year. You know DJ Moore is is going to
be. I've seen people.
Saying I don't even think that side of the laps.
Fantasy this year. I don't even think that side of
this lapses believes that. I think that is like a like a
death rattle, like you know, when someone dies and.
Then. They'll hear the brats.
DJ Moral. Outscore Luther.
Those people are have been like, I mean, those people have a lot
of wins over our side of this lapses.
So maybe they're just feeling very confident.
But I don't even think anyone actually believes that like
Luther burden is actually such an insanely good fantasy pick.
I bet even Big Fantasy will get into Luther Burden.
Could be a first round pick next year like I like Matthew Berry.
Will yeah, I think you're right. Like like Matthew Berry will be
in on burden the the footballers.
Can he not? We're behind.
We're behind ADP on burden like burden isn't.
Oh. Come on, Pat.
We are. We're slow behind 43.
What, what what? What is your?
ADP. What, what ranking do you have
on him, Cal? No, no, we're one pick behind
our ranking is 44 and he's an. AP of 43 What do you have values
anymore? Do you believe in something?
I haven't ranked. I haven't ranked 38.
I'm 36 so I shocking. You were you were panicked that
you might actually be behind, slightly behind.
Whatever. Whatever Davis would have said,
if I needed to move them up, I would have I.
Was just going to move them up on the.
Fly. Oh, I would have.
I'll put them on one if I have to.
Well, just I want to say generally about more from the
bills, you know, from our standpoint here is really it's
an upgrade. Of course, all the things you
guys have said are points well taken.
It's just an incredible price to have to give up a second and
yeah, you get a fifth back. It's an incredible price to see
Pittman go for what he did. And I would have liked that more
in a vacuum, no pun intended, than DJ Moore.
So I. Just I would rather have Michael
Pittman than DJ Moore, straight up.
Yeah, they went into free agency, PAT with the second
highest cap number at wide receiver in the league behind
Cincinnati, and nobody thought they were good.
Then they cut Curtis Samuel and now it's still 4th.
So it's everybody like overpaid by 2.5 X or something.
And they had to guarantee DJ Moore for three years at his
price. I I think it's just.
It's a weird move too, because like to me, if you're going to
do this, I think like I think Pittman, it sucks that he wants
to the the Steelers because you know, it's just useless there.
But like he is a solid outside possession receiver who I think
in like kind of earned targets a decent rate.
Like he's he he brings some value to a team and he also
brings the type of value that's like probably not super easily
replaced in this wide receiver class.
I would compare him to like a Jacoby Myers or something.
You're like, hey, look, a professional receiver.
He's not like that great, but he's like pretty solid.
Let's add him to the crew and he'll like help take pressure
off the quarterback. And then if you want like a
burner or like a guy you can do like gadgety stuff with, there's
both exist like like there's like 3 or 4 of each in this
receiver class. So why not just like trade a
sixth round pick? Not even for Pittman.
You get one year of him. You can re sign him if you want
or just let him walk. Pittsburgh.
Yeah, right. But that's your choice is the
Bills and then get a Ted Hurst if you want to get exact right
branch if you want a guy you can throw underneath stuff too.
Or if you want to go routes, you get Hurst or Brazzle or you
know, there's like there's so many of these guys are like if
you just want some juice in a specific area, like, you know, a
guy who can maybe grow into a bigger role over time.
But like starts out just like giving your offense this punch
and this one thing you're missing.
You can spend a third round pick and get a guy like that this
year. So I don't know this.
That's all. That's right.
This isn't going to make you feel better or any Bills fan
feel better. But Davis, you like this number
of players, coaches and maybe I guess management that the Bills
have brought in that have Carolina experience since Sean
McDermott showdowns in 2017. Yeah, This is, this is getting
the, this is getting the band back together.
This is like how I, I assume they do this in the NHL.
This is a very common trope in European soccer where managers
move quite freely. Guys will just like coach A-Team
for a season, then leave, then leave, then leave.
And they'll do it time after time.
And every time they leave, they'll like get like their
favorite Binky like defensive midfielder to come with them.
This, this is like like Pepperoniola would always play
his guys. Yes, the number is 50 and we
have for the certain time around.
After last time, whatever the number I thought it was going to
be, I did not think the number was going to be 50.
I had to get it in. Oh my God, whatever.
Whatever the Buffalo Bills recreating the 2020 Carolina
Panthers in the aggregate is not what I thought that like, their
goal should be. I agree with that.
So what about you? What about the Bills backing out
of the DJ Moore trade? Do you think they could pull
that off? I don't.
Know is I expect to see a picture of DJ Moore with a pen
in his hand tomorrow on the official first day of the new
league year. But maybe not.
Maybe there's a? Apparently was a failed physical
for for what else do we Yeah that gives you some hope I think
for more once he gets around taking that physical come.
On. I mean, this is this is my
biggest issue with Joe Brady. Just generally, I think it's
like it always feels like he's very stubbornly like wanting to
do things his way and kind of folding everyone into it.
And it just, it fits in with everything that I think of Joe
Brady to be like, well, I've been told we need to add a wide
receiver. An old guy I I.
And I watched. This guy five years ago, so
like, we're getting him. What's the cost?
Sure. Oh, don't you want to hear any
of the other options? Nope.
This is my guy. Like that just feels like.
Kind of, yeah. We need a guy who can do this,
these things like his guy. And it's not like a value
equation. It's just we're going to get our
guy. Wait, we have to trade a second
round pick to give two years, 49 million guaranteed for DJ Moore.
Oh, and we're going to also guarantee another 13 million in
2028. Like, yeah, sure.
It's just, yeah, it's a. Wild.
I mean Davis. It's a great list.
I'll send it to you. 50 names. I think my favorite name of all
is New Bills Senior Assistant. John.
Fox, John Fox Why would John Fox not be involved?
You have to have John Fox in a situation like this.
I mean, there is something with the DJ Moore thing, we're like
in 2012, he would have been like a third or fourth round fantasy
pick off of this move, right? It's like it's DJ Moore, man.
Like he's going to play with Josh Allen.
So maybe like, I suppose because he's so discounted from like,
you know, the ridiculous price that maybe maybe you could pay
this off just based on them design the offense around him.
But like, I don't know, this is just, this is the type of bet to
me that we don't want to be making.
Like this is a, this is like a big downside element to this.
And it's hard. It's honestly hard for me to see
the true upside of it because it relies on like stuff from
literally four or five years ago at this point.
Can we talk? Brian Thomas.
Sure. What's the play?
I mean, is he going to you have been 71 Pat AD PS 58 1/2.
We had that he was being shopped and then we had that he is not
being shopped today. If he's still on Jacksonville,
which has got to be the likeliest scenario.
What do we want to do? End of 6.
I'm in 66, you have him 71. Yeah, how can you not draft
Brian Thomas at the end of the sixth round?
I'm I'm I'm doing a lot of it. He goes at the end of the 5th.
OK, well, yeah, that's where I have them ranked.
I'm I'm. That's where.
I would like to take them. You would like to take them a
lot. Interesting.
I'd love to take them at the end of the sixth show.
Seems. Good, yeah.
Davis what? I mean I would like to be like a
huge BTJ guy. Like dude.
Yeah, I would take. Profile, whatever, but like why
is there so much smoke if there's no fire like it?
It feels like the. Fantasy football community is
driving it. The fantasy football community
is the only ones talking about whether Brian Thomas my surely
not Connor Hughes and Diana Rosini and.
That's that's not. I think he's in a league.
I think Connor's in a league, Jacob.
It's oh, oh, you've played. He's in a fantasy.
League, I think he's like a fantasy league, so that's why
he's talking about it, yeah. My what?
Oh, what's the what's the bit My we do not want to trade Brian
Thomas Junior sure is answering all the questions that you
already have for us is is the situation here.
I mean, I just like generally speaking, once the tenor of the
conversation turns that way. Can you guys think of an example
other than Devante Adams where guys have I mean QJ scored all
the touchdowns. QJ is the best comp I I guess.
Well, no, Cujo wasn't good as a rookie.
No. I don't know who's the comp lad
Mcconkey, but they're the. Same absolutely elite rookie who
then like fell off the face of the earth in year 2.
And and got and got frame mugged by day three guy for one state,
Yeah. Yeah, I, I don't know, like I, I
legitimately, I'm surely there's an example out there, but I, I
really can't think of another example of a rookie season that
was as good as Thomas E one and then as disappointing year 2.
Yeah, typically it's like an off of an injury, this type of stuff
happens and then or there there are examples of guys kind of
emerging out of nowhere and then becoming nothing again as a
rookie. So who was that?
That Dolphins UDFA. Alan earns.
Preston Williams. Preston Williams.
Oh, Preston Williams, Alan earns was Jags.
He was Jax, but these guys weren't as good as Thomas was
his rookie. That's right.
That's right, Preston Williams had.
And they weren't first round picks either.
No, he was the undrafted, Yeah, yeah.
So I mean. Well, that's interesting because
the Jaguars trumped their own first round pick with Hunter and
that's the one that new regime, by the way, at the time, that's
the one that they have to make work.
If he's going to play defense, fine.
But Thomas has the draft capital and the young you know the youth
to. F&B worth something pretty good.
I don't know that they need to try to force that through the,
you know, square peg, round hole if that's what they think he is
for their offense. So he should be traded.
I would love for him to be traded I the the Thomas trade
doesn't seem like as likely because they keep, you know,
denying that anyone's. It's weird because they're
specific teams that are in and then also like this isn't
happening at all. So, you know, it's a it's it's a
very kind of murky situation, But I don't know, I I'm worried
about Thomas if he stays in Jacksonville at least a little
bit. It's not just that, you know, he
had this disappointing sophomore year, but I mean, I think Hunter
like looks like he could be a pretty good wide receiver if he
actually gets played at wide receiver.
And then Parker WA was really good down the stretch last year
and they brought in Myers, who like they, I think, really value
what he brings to the offense. Brenton Strange is a pass
catching tight end probably going to throw six or seven
times of the game to baseball tooten.
So there's just not that many targets for him.
You guys are just going to let me get away with that.
There's I don't know, it's it's not a great situation if he's
back in Jacksonville. To me, the upside is that he's
traded. Agreed.
Which I hope happens. Yeah.
I, I agree, I'm 66, which is a little higher than yours, but
that's, that's baking in not a likelihood of a trade, but a
chance of a trade. I I a chance of a trade, Yeah.
Basically, I'm just saying I don't want to be at 0% if I get
the Brian Thomas Junior's been traded notification because I at
that point I would want to stack.
It's weird to see who was the other team.
It was the Giants were in and and.
The Jets. Both New York team.
These are not good trade destinations.
These are. You're gonna get plenty if he
goes to The Jets, you know? Hang on a second, I'll get.
To The Jets. Let's Garrett.
Talk and I will too, but I don't know.
That Garrett with Gino from 50 Decent online.
All right, let's rock'n'roll. I would love to see it.
All right, maybe I'm really talking myself into Garrett
right now. Is that right?
Where do you have I'm? Talking myself into Garrett a
little bit as well, yeah. I'm Garrett way ahead of ATPI.
Got Garrett up. I was on Davidson Street the
other day and I drafted him. I've got Garrett up at 25.
80P39. I'm not, I'm not talking to
myself in that much. Wow.
That's I don't know man. You hack Rain did not write back
to Gino. I I'm, I'm on, I'm on record.
I'm doubling down on my Gino Smith belief.
I, I think I'm going to as well. I, I think I'm going to join you
on this. Yeah.
That's above a lava do. You know, fucking stunk last
year, man. No, I, I I who's bad?
I have a lava hire. I have a lava at 21 show.
OK, OK. T Higgins, Tet.
A.J. Brown.
I have, let's just not lose sight of this.
Like it's it's The Jets. It's the, it's The Jets with
Aaron Glenn, who they clearly should have gotten rid of.
And then he brings in Frank Reich.
Frank Reich is the OC Like this who how this is this is this is
2024 Patriots level stuff where it's just, it could just be
awful. And then Geno Smith, like, yeah,
I'm sure if Geno Smith has a bad couple games, Jets fans who he's
already played for are going to be really chill about it.
Like it's just the downside here is as low as it's as it's ever
been. Like this didn't raise the floor
on anything. I think it it makes kind of the
most likely outcome better than like if they just rolled with
fields. But I don't know.
I mean, like they could have signed Kyler something to some
stupid deal that would have been at least a little bit like more
is that better fantasy? I don't convert.
More drop backs into targets than Kyler Kyle just scramble
around and shit. Yeah, sure.
But like my base case on Gino is that he's he's washed.
Like I disagree. Me too.
So what? What was last year then?
I, I think last year was, I mean, he, I think he was
obviously way worse than what he was the previous year in
Seattle, but I think he was actually pretty good in Seattle.
I think he went from like good to below average.
But yeah, I don't think he was terrible.
I don't, I don't think he was, I don't think he is as bad as the
results were last year. The online was completely
incompetent. He's, I think, pretty pressure
sensitive at this point where I don't.
He's very pressure sensitive, like Donald.
The Jets have a good offensive line, though.
Yeah, and and, and the, and the, the play calling, I mean, Chip
Kelly was calling plays and weren't in the playbook.
So that's bad. That is bad, you know.
I will give you that. I'm not, I'm not saying that
Frank Reich at Aaron Glenn's ideal.
Like I really wanted to see Gino go to like Minnesota or
Indianapolis or something and then I would have really gotten
in on the Renaissance. But I still think he could be.
I don't think he's like as turbo washed as people think he is.
I don't think he went from being like a a like the 12th best
quarterback in the league to like the 70th overnight.
I think he can be like the 24th best quarterback in the NFL.
The Jets offensive line is decent, right above Hertz.
Right above Hertz, yeah. It's actually The Jets.
The line is decent. You're finally getting a
quarterback who isn't going to be scrambling all the time now
in The Jets. I think that's huge for Wilson
and for Breece. I'm I'm I'm pretty optimistic
that they can be like semi competent and Carson Wentz is
going to be the backup. That's like not good, but like
could be worse. Carson Wentz, Yeah.
Carson Wentz is Carson Wentz is going to be the backup.
Yeah, 'cause Frank Reich, like has a like, they, they, they.
Go to. But is that?
Is that just a connection or is did he?
Get ID a lot. I think it's a line.
No, it's. ID a lot.
He hasn't been signed yet, but it's been.
OK, OK. But it's going to happen.
Got it. OK.
It's not like me just saying it like I think like it's going to
be Carson Wentz. I think that would be bad for
for Smith because, you know. Reich wants to get went out for
Garrett. I'm I'm.
Oh, for Garrett. For Garrett, sure.
Let's move to Slide 8, Pat. OK, OK.
Since we're on the subject, a lot of good this year we're
skipping through, but you know, QB.
Part of the struggle for me with with with Smith is that so
because the offensive line was really bad last year and, and
because people like The Jets tackles and, and, you know, film
wise and stuff, I think they get kind of good marks.
It's treated like this is going to be a big time upgrade in
offensive line play. The Raiders were 22nd in pass
block win rate last year. The Jets were 26th.
The The Jets were. 15 The Raiders game last year like did
it? Feel they were terrible.
They were terrible. No, it didn't It didn't.
They were 28th in in PFFS pass block grades as a team.
The Jets were 15th. I don't this is not him going to
some really good offensive line situation.
It's not a disaster, but like the Raiders had Colton Miller
get hurt last year, which is part of the reason they were
such a disaster. Injuries happen along the
offensive line. Like The Jets I think are a kind
of a mediocre line. They're not they're not a great
offensive line. They're.
They. Are really young ones so you can
talk yourself. You could talk progression.
You certainly could talk yourself into that.
Foshanu is going to be a third year guy and Memu's going to be
a second year guy, so it would be reasonable for them to go
from averageable average starters to really good
starters. One, one of them at least, would
be not that shocking. I want to dream on this.
Like you guys, I love Garrett
Wilson. I think he's really good.
I even like Adonai Mitchell. I think he's fun.
Bruce Hall's one of my favorite running backs in the league.
Like, I want this to work. The floor here is still
horrendous. It's still like we can't watch
Jets games. That's how bad the floor still
is. Like it really this nothing.
The floor has not gotten higher. Geno Smith could be dirting
balls constantly because he's afraid of getting hit.
You know, because Pashano has a high ankle sprain and and Mambo
didn't take a step forward in the second year.
Listen, Pat, pat it. Could be pretty bad.
We can't. We can't lose sight of it. 3
words. That's fair.
We don't have the, we don't have the draft.
Yet what's your stance on contractions?
Isn't, isn't. That's one.
Word. We'll, we'll fix it in post, but
we don't have the draft yet. Remember last year everybody was
sort of assuming Seattle's line would be terrible and they had a
pressure sensitive quarterback and, you know, look out and they
won the whole thing. I love such as we're telling me
to watch a game on The Jets Olin like I did man, they fucking
sucked. This team fucking sucked.
Didn't Miami the idea The Jets are are like like situationally
are an upgrade for a quarterback.
Like, I don't know man, they might not be.
I don't need the captain of the Breece Hall family just being so
negative here. Garrett Wilson is great.
Breeze Hall is at least very good.
Geno Smith is an actual NFL quarterback that isn't, you
know, just. Unequivocally, unequivocally the
best quarterback Garrett Wilson has played with.
Or I guess he did have Rogers for that year.
I, I, I don't know, like Mike White had his moments, guys.
Tie Rod Well on the QB slide. Elite Willis 30. 6 in October
and was really, really bad last year behind what could
ultimately feel like a a pretty similar offensive line or at
least situations. So I don't know, they pick up.
Let's just Frank, Frank. Do you think Frank Wright will
call the right plays? No, not necessarily.
When? He calls necessarily, dude, when
he calls the play, will it be in the playbook?
You know, look through his wristband and be like, I do see
Hank Scott here. I remember watching in season
Hard Knocks the year they did the Colts and Frank Reich did
this whole analogy like, you know, like they at the beginning
of the season, they all come and he's got his big like this is
our metaphor for they all have some really stupid metaphor.
I've not they never show the good coaches.
So maybe only the bad coaches do this, but they're he's like,
we're we're at base camp now, we're climbing Everest and like
this is like week 7. We're like, you know, you know,
we're putting our crampons on in week 7 or whatever.
It's just like really tortured and you could tell it's not
resonating with anyone. And at the time Frank Reich was
seen as this like really sharp offensive mind.
So it's like this guy seems like he's an idiot and he can't
command a room whatsoever, but I know that's wrong.
So it's interesting that he's coming off this poorly on this
television program when he's clearly good at coaching
football. It turns out the TVI think was
probably more accurate than my perception at the time.
He has been fired mid season in his last two NFL seasons so that
he's got a streak going. Davis, Malik Willis, Tua Tug of
Aloha in Atlanta and then Brissett is back in Arizona.
So percent, I mean percent is at least good for Trey McBride,
Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson. He will not.
Promise the starting job, by the way.
What? It was reported that when he
signed his contract, they made no promises that he would start.
Well, they said he's going to start over Minchu.
It'll probably, I mean it'll be 8:00 and 8:00 right?
Like one guy will get 8 games, the other guy they'll.
Probably be well, I think I think this would would would you
say they're the betting favorite to be the Thai Simpson team?
I think they're the betting favorite to be the Thai Simpson
team. OK.
I mean, could be, could be the Nussmeyer team, could be the
who's the other guy? There's a fourth guy who's like
vaguely drafted. Drew Aller.
So, OK, let me tell you.
Let me tell you this. Let me tell you.
This if if Rodney Carson back chasing.
No if red. Kings.
I wouldn't chase any of these guys.
Which I'm certain they don't. If I could get 12:50 on Drew
Aller to be either a first round pick or the second quarterback
taken I I would do it. Drew Aller is who's like a
really good comp for him. Like you know how scouts love to
say shit like. Oh, he just looks like way more
high variance Will Levis. Honestly, very good comp.
Very very good comp. Jacob, that's not good.
If you were. Like what if Will Levis had more
turnover issues? I'm not.
I'm not saying. Will Levis with his head cut
off, that's a good job. I'm not, I'm not saying he's
good. I'm not saying he's good.
Oh my. I'm just saying I think some
there's there is one scout Jacob Eason.
Yeah, I I love that. I love that.
Levis should be on a new team, by the way.
Somebody could like him a little bit.
Very true. I'd rather take a shot on Mason
Rudolph than Will Levis. Really, we're leaving a shot on
Will Levis I would love to take. A shot on We're gonna take no
shots. On the Will Levis, we're naming
some. Guys, I am like susceptible to
this guy looks like a quarterback type.
Drew. He doesn't look like a
quarterback, though. Levis is too like, tight in
here. He's like, too jacked.
His arms are like, you know, he's not, it's not.
He's not loose. The point is.
Throw the ball. The point is Arizona will have
one of these people. I agree.
You don't. Baseball players don't look like
Olympic weight lifters, you know what I mean?
Like you got to stay like. What's the update?
The Saber score while Pat goes into his body.
You talk that. Would be that would be your
advice now idea about everyone what?
Are you doing? I want everyone to handicap the
odds that Malik Willis has the Trey Lance disaster season where
it's like this guy just can't play quarterback.
One and two. What'd he say?
I said 1 and 2. Yeah, that.
Yeah, it's it's very live. It's that was so yes, yeah, that
was such a Jacob, you just went full Commonwealth right there.
You just went, you just did full, you just went full Euro
odds on us right there. Is this why you guys are better
at math than than? Oh, like you mean you want you
wanted me to say 5050, not one and two?
Or or plus plus even money plus 100 it's.
Not. It's actually not it's, it's not
because of that. Like do you guys just play odds
when you're out drinking with your friends?
It sounds different. Like I have like 2 buddies in
town like this weekend and it's like all weekend.
Like you're sitting at a bar, you have a full beer and your
buddy's like odds you finished that and I'm like 1 and four and
then someone counts you down. He goes 321 we.
Wouldn't we? Would never.
If the one touched. The beard.
We would never do odds that way. I don't.
Yeah, sounds like I haven't played.
This if I say so if you say what are the odds of this like and I
say one and two and then Pat would be like 321 and.
If you ask me what are the odds I would convert it, I would
convert it to a money line. 50% as well.
This is why America's. Test scores are down a number.
We have to. We have to convert things.
To money line what? Numbers the fraction. 5050 seems
easy. But, but, but OK, but what if
you were to say 1? Because if you say 1 and 4, we
can each say any number between 1:00 and 4:00 and we have to say
the same number for me to have to drink.
So it's a one and four chance we say the same number, but if you
were like 25% or like plus 300, I'd have to think.
No, you're right. You are right.
Like to be clear, Yeah, you're. Playing a game?
Wait, you're playing a game where everybody in the group is
guessing a different percent chance that you would finish the
beer? No, what it is is.
No, what it is is I have a full beer and Shob looks at me and
he's like, odds you finished that?
And I say one and four. And so then Pat goes 321 and me
and Choke have to say a number between 1:00 and 4:00 at the
same time. And if we say the same number, I
have to finish it. And if we don't and I say
reverse, we go again. And if we see the same number,
you have to finish the beer. What I'm telling you is that
Americans just wouldn't do this. What?
Is this game? It sounds great.
It's. Interesting.
Great. I just need to print it out.
I need to print it out so I can sort of brass but.
But the thing because. Now we're playing The Settlers
of Catan at Beer at a bar, I think.
The thing that would frustrate? ME is the longest Rd.
You have to be on the same page about how often you're playing
it right? Because if like someone's just
going nuts like every 10 seconds, Yeah, well, that seems
then I would get. Ongoing, it's like a Bender
every like, yeah, well, yeah, someone seems like they're being
slow. It's kind of the thing the
question, like it's like everybody else is done and one
guy's nursing their beer. It's like, all right, Pat, odds
you finish. Just drink the beer.
But I mean, like we have all sorts of drink.
I mean, I'm sure everyone in the chat's familiar with various
drinking games. Like that's what, I don't know
if you guys know this, but when you play drink games, you drink
more than you would have otherwise.
That's what this is. This is still the question of
whether Malik Willis will have Trey Lances career.
Just drink your own beer. That's the question the most
anti drink. I'm worried.
I'm worried that Malik Willis has now crossed.
Grateful to be sober. He's crossed the slap a con
where where his price now is not waiting both the disaster risk
with the he runs for 800 yards and eight touchdowns risk.
Like, I don't know where that line is, but I think he's passed
the slap a con. Jacob just quietly stepped away.
Can we talk about how insane that was the last five minutes?
I think it was fun. I, I, I, it was fun.
I was on board. No, I think the game sounds fun.
I buy, listen, I have to like be like wait, wait 15 years
younger. I'd say a thing, then you'd say
a thing and then he says he counts you down and then he says
he says reverse, reverse. We'll play right now.
Let's play right now. You tell.
Tell you because I want Shove to do it.
Because he seems the most confused.
Yeah. Tell Jacob odds you finish that
beer. Just say odds you finish that
beer, Jacob. In how much time?
No, just that's it. That's all you say.
Say odds you finish that beer. Just just odds.
Like odds? No Joe 9 and. 10.
Sign in. Time 2 words.
Jacob odds you finish. That beer.
I am the host, one, one and one and two show.
Odds you finish that beer all right, One and two.
All right, count us down. 32. 1-2 show.
Good to see a number show. Two, I just did OK.
He said too. Jacob finished the beer now he
said it late after hearing yours there we.
Go no. I was going with the premise
that he would finish it. Why would you get it?
Why would you pour it and not finish it?
I mean, of course he's going to finish it in one.
I didn't think you'd do it this fast.
We're now. Now we got to.
Chug it. Choke.
Is it chug it he did. Yeah, because we said the same
number. Now it's been demonstrated
audience. I explained one in a million.
Just cut this all out on the audio, Zach.
In post. We'll get it in post.
My mom called me this week because Brittany had sent her a
Venmo and she didn't get the Venmo, but then she, but she'd
sent a Venmo to my brother's mother-in-law for like a smaller
amount than what Brittany had sent.
And I had to like, you know, she paid with the bounce.
I didn't realize. Anyway, this is what I feel like
right now. This is the level.
This is the level of discourse. So yeah, I think Malik Wells is
fine at ADP. This is I'm sorry about dating
myself there. This is Chris.
I'm drinking the corn oil. 120. Cents and the peanut oil, Dave,
I don't think I don't taste much of a difference.
All right, So I like 2 in Atlanta.
Same. Do you guys think what?
OK, how about this? I mean, this is not a drinking
game. What are the odds you think Tua
starts for Atlanta this year over Michael Panics?
Oh my gosh, a lock. Very.
It's basically a lock that he starts Week 1, but I also think
it's five, It's four, it's four, it's 3. 215.
We're getting Pennix starts this year though.
Yeah. Probably.
Like it's after, unless they're good.
Unless it works. New coach.
I think Tua is very likely to start week 1 and then if he is
doing and then he just keeps the job as long as they're
succeeding. But like they probably won't
succeed so then panic starts, right?
Is that the? Yeah, exactly.
So I don't, I don't think, I don't know, I mean.
They can't be good. For Tua specifically, wouldn't
you have him go to The Jets? What you want?
Would you rather have Tua be in The Jets?
Because. He's not because he's there's no
competition. Yeah, but like Tua like I think
has a chance to actually be good in the NFC South.
He doesn't have to play anywhere cold.
He has to play in the Dome. His Rd. games are are in another
Dome in New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Carolina.
I like it. Like if he was in The Jets, like
he would have to do the same shitty he already had to do.
Like you have to play if. We bunch of games we were.
Doing in Buffalo, New England like it's over.
Your career is done at that point.
If we go somewhere warm and resuscitate his value.
If we were doing an expansion draft and Tua and Michael Pennex
were unprotected, I would take Michael Pennex first.
See, I think Tua goes first. He might go first.
I think Pennex is the much sharper way to play that.
We don't know what Pennex is, we know what Tua is.
I agree with you Pat. I would take Pennex first in an
expansion draft because I think he has AI mean he just has way
better physical tools. So like, there's a ceiling
there, theoretically. Does he?
Does he have better? Physical tools at this stage,
but if if you were to tell, if you were, if you were to tell me
I have to pick one quarterback to start for one game that I
have to win, I'm taking Tua. Sure.
Yeah, I I will. And that's how I do the same
thing. Yeah.
They they think that until they see half a season of Tua and
they're like, well, what what you know what's behind door B
can't be worse than this. I I think in a way, this is set
up, this is a decent outcome for Pennex because he's coming off
the ACL. He's going to be, it was a
partially torn ACL, right. So they can, they can just sit
him. They can sit him for as long as
they want, but it's like, I think the odds of two of holding
this job all year are pretty low.
It's not an amazing situation. It's not a bad situation
necessarily, but like, why wouldn't you see what you have
in Pennix? Because at some point this
season as the new coaching staff?
Because if you're first place in the division.
They're gonna be right. They're gonna be 5 and 4.
How? They have to be really bad to
pull the plug. Terrible division, and I think
that's not gonna happen. Lots of talent.
It's not a good division, is it? Is it terrible?
Yeah, all three of the other teams are terrible.
In the sense it's it's terrible, in the sense of you're not going
to need to win that many games to win it.
I agree there's no like truly horrific team but like this is a
division you probably win with ten wins.
Ten wins seems right. Ten wins seems right, Yeah.
So like if you're as long as you're sitting around 500,
you're probably with outing difference of of the division
title. They finished tied for first
last year. If they're if they're four and
three, if they're five and four, like and two is doing OK, I
don't know. I I guess I think this will be I
don't know. I think that they probably can
be like a 500 ish team. I mean, I don't know what's
happening with James Pearson is. Leaving.
They just were they. Just theoretically have a pass
rush. Yeah, they were just an 8 and
nine team with Kirk and Pennex giving them extremely mediocre
quarterback play. Right.
Pennex was actually like pretty decent in terms of, you know,
EPA success rate and that you know, which is the metrics I
think are the most predictive. So you're like, it does feel a
little weird to me to go like, well they just did well with
Pennex so therefore they'll do well with Tua instead of panic
like they did well with. Planck.
So like they could play Pennex? Yeah, and get better with
something that'll look Kirk. Yeah, they actually won more
games with Kirk, even though he was worse.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, Penex was, was quite
a bit better in terms of the the metrics, but.
The Penex was so high variance, like Penex would have some games
where you'd watch him and be like, oh, like they have
something here and the next. Yeah, score like 3.
Points. And they had a really weird
offense with Penex. He's playing out a pistol all
the time, which makes no sense because he's not a dual, a dual
threat or rushing threat at all. Yeah.
So it was it was a very. And you know, they they've it's
not a great offense for Pennex in terms of him probably need to
play in their center a ton, which doesn't really fit him
that well. So they're they may not.
Either, though we can't move. It doesn't fit Tua either.
So like the whole thing is I don't think this is going to
work. I don't think Tua is going to
hold down. This job is really what it is,
but I think he gets the first crack I.
Think he gets the first crack. Also, it's important to note no
one in the Atlanta Falcons organization is at all connected
to the Michael Pennex pick anymore.
They got rid of everybody. GM, coach, they're all gone.
So a whole new regime. The only connection right is
Tommy Reese Tutua from Alabama, the the play caller.
Let's let's jump to tight ends. I'm.
Calling for for Penix, man, if you're, if you're about to, I
don't know, let's say pay Daniel Jones 50 million a year, maybe
just see if Michael Penix is available for for very cheap.
Seems fair. Tight ends, lots of movement.
Isaiah Likely to the Giants, a big one.
Kelsey back in Kansas City. Kate Otton back.
He got his. He got his plucky defensive
midfielder to follow him. I mean, this is just classic.
This is just. What exactly can't help it?
Sorry, it's just. Not a.
It's not the over under. Charlie Kolar and then Daniel
Bellinger with a cat tip. Scene see, see, this is I I got
to say, normally Zach does as good of work as possible.
The the issue here is that he doesn't know.
Well, actually, he should know. I'm a huge gunner helm guy.
I like I was. I like Gunner Helm Deep cuts,
you know? Like Davis, whether you like the
player is so irrelevant you you mistake everyone for everyone
all the time. That's true.
Is that true? Not never worthy?
I don't think I ever got worthy wrong.
Is that fair? Well, that's that's actually
true. That's actually bearish for
worthy. Yeah, you guys shouldn't catch
up. So small he's.
So he looks so misplaced on a football field that even Davis
doesn't get him mixed up. He's.
Like, oh crazy, it's the Midget again.
Jacob, do you want to do the, the, the well actually which one
of you want to do the play action pass rate like Charlie
Kolar Gadsden's not a real tight end thing, which which one of
you guys? Want to Oh, I just the the the
whole Charlie Kolar discourse was driving me crazy yesterday.
Like a Rhonda Gadsden is like 235 lbs every for his entire
career, no matter how well or poorly it goes.
The team that employs around at Gadsden is also going to employ
a blocking tight end. Like we just need to accept that
and just move on with our lives. Like no team is going to be like
first and 10. We're calling half back stretch
and Gadsden's with AY. Like it's just it's just not
happening. So like there's going to be
multiple tight ends on a roster. Charlie Claire is going to be
there blocking tight end Gadsden.
Like I don't I don't know, like if you want someone who runs 90%
of the routes draft Kate on if you want someone who's going to
be receiving tight end who might have some annoying route issues
on 1st and 10 or in play action situations, but it's going to be
targeted frequently and downfield when they're on the
field. That's Rhonda Gadsden.
But like I I I don't know why we have to do this whole thing of
this is really bad. Like there was always going to
be a Charlie galore last year was Will distant.
Like there's it's going to happen.
Davis, when you said that John Harbaugh was bringing in his
defensive fullback, did you also mean Patrick Ricard, who signed
with the Giants an hour ago? I mean, literally, you couldn't.
You couldn't script it anymore perfectly.
That is the same thing as Thiago Alcantara just going with Pep
Guardiola for every team he's ever managed.
It's like some guys just have their spirit animal in form of a
guy on the field, and Patrick Ricard is that for whichever
Harbaugh is now coaching the Giants.
I always get them confused. Well, Mike McDaniel, Tuck Ingle,
too. He brought him over.
To the Chargers, Yep. Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, do. Every one of these play callers
get their designated full back. They just bring with them
wherever they go. People have seen some people are
tag me on like because I do this article where I talk about play.
Active participation rate is something to keep in mind with
tight ends. And I think it's important to
understand kind of the the guys you're drafting and if they're
not playing in the run game and they're less likely to play on
play action, which is very important for tight end
production. But we already knew that about
Aranda Gadsden like that. Nothing about Charlie Kohler
changes anything about Aranda Gadsden.
There's always going to be a blocking tight end.
To Jacob's point, Will Disley has been released.
Kohler takes over for that. Kohler had 20% round
participation last year. I thought I remember him as a
prospect, being somebody who could catch it.
I don't know his. He he can catch a little.
He led Iowa State in receiving his final season playing with
two other NFL players. Xavier.
Hutchinson. And Jalen?
Knoll. Yeah, but he what he's this is
he's played four NFL seasons and really hasn't been any kind.
Of you know what it would be, it would be very similar to what
had already happened for the charge.
Remember how Tyler Conklin was just like never anything and
then for for like a six week stretch he had to be the
Chargers starting tight end. It was like the tight end 8IN
FFPC scoring. It would be.
It would be something like that. I would, I mean, the, the, the
Conklin thing is actually he was on the Vikings and then he went
to The Jets and we thought it was going to be the guy's name
that we couldn't pronounce. Remember that guy?
And then Uzama. Uzama.
Yeah.
Uzoma. So we.
I thought you were. A Kenny Uboa guy?
No, not Uboa Uzama so. So.
He, he was, he like we thought he was the starter.
Turned out to be Conklin. I, you know, maybe, maybe.
I don't think so, though, because Gadsden's just a big
slot receiver who has tight end eligibility.
My whole thing is like. Sours.
Yeah, like he likes towers. Don't get like the, my general
point with the articles, like there are certain guys that
their ADP's get really, really inflated.
Like when Mike Kasicki was like, Oh my God, this guy's going to
be like, amazing. He's like, probably not because
he doesn't run all the routes. He's like misses a bunch of time
on Horton Downs, You know, like we try not to draft guys who
don't play all the time if you can help it with expensive
picks. So Gadsden, I mean, I think this
is a confirmation that we need a little bit of a discount
relative to like how good he is purely as a pass catcher.
But I think we're getting that. I think he's a a decent pick
where he goes in the hundreds. I will not let my moderate to
severe plaque psoriasis prevent me from drafting Uzama or Ebola
or Quebenum or whatever the actual name of the drug.
Happens quebenum I I've never heard that much.
Agent, I've never, I've never heard quebenum.
It's how I entered the space. Is being able to pronounce
Alberto's actual name. Alberto.
Can we get it one more time? Oh, Quebo talked over it.
I talked over it again. One more.
TuneIn next week for more tight end pronunciations.
Let's can we get to last call? You want to peek at risers and
followers first or if we let's. Speak.
DJ Moore. Well, OK.
David Montgomery, Kenneth Walker, Luther Burden, Mike
Washington, Former UB Bull, Kyler Murray, Tyler Algier,
Jordan Mason, Bashel Tooten, Mike Washington.
I like him. I mean, I want to like him.
I I want to like him, I'm just not convinced he's any good.
But I want to think he's good. We moved them up a bunch because
the draft capital stuff started to look, you know, at least
reasonably they're they're, you know, you can look at like his
upside in terms of his draft capital and it's there.
Round 3 so maybe? Round 2 maybe?
Round 2 would be the upside, I think.
I think that's a realistic upside case, yeah.
Thoughts on Montgomery quickly with Houston?
Is that not really good? Gonna keep going, gonna keep
going up. I think you'll, I think you'll
get at least into the 5th, at least in the 5th, and he might
even peek into the 4th. OK, 4th I would love because
that would then I could say goodbye.
He he's just a good pick in the 6th like and I get he's still in
the 6th sometimes, you know, in the 5th it's fine, it's fine.
4th 4th would be bad. So do it.
So how does it take him? Yeah, I agree.
I agree with all that. Yeah, I think.
Fallers. Oh, Tyler Murray.
How high is how high is Luther going to get, by the way?
Like, is it going to get to a point that we can't take him
anymore? Leone.
Leone is the flood wall there. So whatever Leone decides.
What does Leone have, Matt? Do we know?
42 I think here I'll. Look it up.
OK, how much do we have to pay Leone to put him at like 51?
Let's see, maybe 42 might be high because they were.
They were really like, what is Leonie like?
Like could we get him like a nice bottle of Scotch?
Like cars, women, like what? How do?
You been out to? Leonie to rank someone lower.
A gift card at a Thai restaurant you know if.
I, I would, I would buy him pad Thai.
I'd go to his house and make him pad Thai.
Leonie, Yeah. Leonie has a.
Drinker no Leonie has burden at 45 so.
What about like? What about like 1?
Spot behind us. Really, really, really nice
Sauconies. He's running 50 mile races.
Jacob, I don't know if that's going to, you know, do the
trick, but. I don't know, just whatever,
whatever it takes to get Leone to rank Burden in the 50s is,
that's all I'm saying. We can work on it.
I love it. I like the G temps experience of
this podcast. He's I don't know where he is in
the pod I assume. I assume he's like further back
and it's just catching up but I would.
My preference is that he is watching live.
Stephon Diggs leads the Fallers, so to speak.
Woody Marks, Joe Mixon, Kim Scanaboo, RJ Harvey, JJ
McCarthy, Emmett Johnson, Denzel Boston, Jadarian Price.
The rookies on the Fallers list tonight.
Diggs. Does he get any sort of a look
at a productive season somewhere?
Yeah, who's going to sign it? Keep.
Falling until he's signed, but like, will a team sign him until
his legal situation is clarified?
Where do we want them? Anywhere that has targets
available for a slot receiver. I mean, the tough thing about
digs getting cut is where you want them is the Patriots.
Like that's the best place for. Them.
Vikings. Radio, not there, is a pretty
big pretty big downgrade. Back to Minnesota, Pep
Guardiola. What would be the best realistic
spot you know the Bills could use the wide receiver one?
Commanders. What about what about the Eagles
trade? A.J.
Brown dig signs with them. I can actually.
See that half bad? Yeah, that's bad.
I don't know what did Datsun's, what was his target share?
I had 2%. No, no, no if they trade A.J.
Brown, he said. I, I I know he said that, Jacob.
Get out of here. Last call boys, I missed last
week and I was given tip out. Effton, Chisholm.
The Third. No, you, you picked.
You picked twice this week. That's.
Just really. Yeah, you can.
You can. You can replace him.
Yeah. All right.
I'll take two a first and then you guys go and I'll go last.
Man, we'll get that quarterback room Patrick has to a. 2 is
taken buddy. Jeez, get back in line.
We're set. Is he under 200?
I don't think he is. Thank you really.
Just. Jacobi Brissette is. 187 Yeah,
Gino. Gino's already taken.
Man, this is embarrassing. I had, I had a strategy, I had a
strategy here and my strategy is is being executed.
Hey, I I understood what your strategy was and I didn't
execute it as well as you did, but I but I got home for.
It I'll, I'll, I'll. Regroup.
Give me demand, Claiborne. That's a good pick.
That is a good. Wake Forest running back.
Yeah, that is a good pick. He's not taken.
Is he all right? Maybe I'll just wait and get
Pennex in two weeks. I'll, I'll do mine.
I mean, this is not fun, but I'm going to take Kate Otten at at
tight end Kate Otten. You're right, that isn't fun.
I'll keep doing what I'm doing, which is not really as fun of a
strategy as, or at least not as effective as a strategy as what
you're doing. But I'll just keep taking
rookies. I will take Chris Brazil the
second. That's who I was going to take.
I'm glad I said it first. Welcome to my world.
All right. Well then, who shall I take?
When did you guys do this with these quarterbacks?
I mean I missed one week when did this all?
Happen I I. Really, I took quarterbacks.
I took quarterbacks the first three times.
The cartels literally just told my quarterbacks it's.
Important to consider in fantasy games.
When's the stolen option? Pat Pat who just won this still.
Available. With one quarterback is already
on three. You're just mixing it up this
year to go in a different different.
Direction I recognize that Mac Jones was a wasted.
Time Watson is available. And I I.
Could do that. I really can't.
I can't. I can't.
We've had that conversation. I think he plays.
I will take Jeremy Bernard. All right, Isn't it Jeremy
Bernard? It is Jeremy.
Yeah, it's, isn't it Jeremy like Jeremy?
No, it's like Jeremy. I believe it's Jeremy.
Jeremy. Yeah, I thought it was Jeremy.
Jeremy Bernard. Jets let's go.
Mason Taylor ADP2O2 Hope everybody's enjoyed the Saber
updates. The juggernaut rolls on 5/2,
Buffalo over San Jose mid third. Jacob, I didn't want it.
The 19 year old score for San Jose.
He did. Yep, Celebrini.
He has the name Davis. It's not on Celebrini.
I've never said it out loud. I didn't know if it's Kelabrini
or Celebrini so I didn't want to embarrass myself.
It's way cooler being Celebrini because then his literal
nickname is Sully. You're doing great either way.
I just want to shout out Davis who mentioned he he's a big
gunner helm guy and you know he's this is not bullshit.
He's got jester gunner helm on his team.
Sure, Gunner. Helm.
I have, I have Gunner Helm and Terence Ferguson ranked in the
one 70s because I'm not a fucking coward who's like, you
know what you got to do to direct, to win the big board.
You got to take Isaiah Likely. Pat Fryer booth.
No thanks. No thanks, Guy.
Good. Are you concerned about Danny
Belly showing up on your door? I'm I've never been less
concerned. There's a there's a battle, by
the way. Are you sure that Are you sure
that Gooner helm hasn't been Ballinger mogged?
Has anyone ever been Bellinger mugged in the history of
Daniels? I don't think so.
Yeah, on that note, Ras dot football got Bellinger mugged.
Yes, yes, yes. Math Bomb got frame mugged.
All right, Jacob, what have you got for us coming up?
Oh. Well, I'll have posts on free
agency basically this whole week.
I wrote my first one, which is more of a philosophical post on
some of the big takeaways from free agency.
Tomorrow I will have, optimistically, I'll have both
my running backs, free agency article and my wide receivers
tomorrow. More realistically, I'll have
one of those tomorrow and one of them up on Thursday.
I already have my best ball ranks updated.
I'll have dynasty ranks updated for free agency this week as
well. And then starting the week after
that will be the lead up to the NFL draft.
So it'll be it'll be all the rookie profiles coming up.
All right, let's do it. Davis just had a free agent wide
receiver video with Matt Harmon come out today, so if you've not
seen that and you want the reception perception takes on
all the free agent wide receiver signings, you can go check that
out. Did a big long 3 hour stream
with all the other free agency stuff and then I will probably
go live at some point tomorrow. Crane, you want to you want to
draft? You want to draft a three try
and draft A333 tomorrow. Yeah, I'll do that.
OK, All right, I'll send you a message and we'll do that took
us it took it took about two hours to fill A333, but.
I came on, Davis texted me. He's like, hey, you want to come
on for 333? I'm like, sure.
I show up, we stream for like an hour 10, we do a full another
draft. Throughout that whole time, the
333 didn't fill and then I was like, all right, I actually do
have to go so. Major major recession indicator
that you cannot get a March 10th $333 fantasy draft filled.
Maybe, maybe message me when it's starting to fill 'cause I,
I'm gonna be doing my, I got a bunch of writing to do because I
got all my rookie profiles coming out.
I'm I'm nearly done with the one.
Of you pass, you might want to wait until there's 11 to go
because you. Yeah.
I will. I will.
This is what I'll do. An hour without it filling.
I'm going to schedule this stream to start at 1:30 PM
Central time. I will enter into the 333, then
I will get in a $10 and then whenever the 333 fills I will
message you, OK? Sounds good.
I'll be drafting baseball this weekend in Philadelphia, so come
say hi. Hi, I ran out of I ran out of
gas on the dinger. I just I did not have the fire
this year. I did like I did like 25 of
them. This is a.
This is a 42 year old home league.
Wow wow, kitchen. Were you in or or?
Start like right after you retired or?
Yeah, that's right. I got into it during my college
years. Were you in the Rotisserie
League? Were you in?
Were you in the league? The The, the.
The the, the the. Actual.
Roto League. Me.
Yeah, so. But have you ever walked in a
room and gone, What? What is this?
And they're like, oh, it's called rotisserie fantasy.
No, I'm not quite that old. I'm not quite that old.
When it was invented, I was not there.
I was not present at that restaurant.
Was called the Rotisserie, right?
Isn't that the story? That's where.
Is that what it was? The idea?
Well, you tell you tell me. Really.
I mean I. Think that's the reason for the
word you guys should know. I mean you're fully ingrained in
the business here. You should know where the.
Odds you were at the first fan of the baseball trap.
Yeah, you were all there. I remember you guys.
You were snotched. No, before, before we go, do you
have I just need to take curling corner for 20 seconds.
Manitoba is a Briar champion. One Matt.
Matt Dunstone come. Out to Matt Dunstone.
Good omen. No more.
I loved it. I was literally in tears when he
won. It's a good omen for the Bills
and they also have a Buffalo on their jackets.
We sure do. We sure do.
So shout out Matt Dunstone. You're a Manitoban hero for life
buddy here. Here, here.
Thanks everybody. Enjoy your week.
We'll see you next Tuesday. So I I zoned out when you guys
talk about hockey. So I'll have this ready.
Later that wasn't, that was.