All right, guys, we're back. Here on the clock for our series
here the FFPC Mini S where we walk through each of our
decision points. We were starting to look at the
onesie positions a little bit, starting to.
In our first FFPC main event, we started this team off from the
11 hole with A J Brown and CD Lamb.
We came back at the 3-4 turn with Debo Samuel and DK Metcalf.
We kept pissing yellow there at 5-6 with Brandon and Iuk and
Deontay Johnson, and then the sweat was on for how we were
going to approach the seven eighth.
Consider our first running back and we have a string of picks,
guys, that was pretty brutal as far as some of our targets at
73. Devonte Williams.
And you have Gabe Davis, Quinton Johnston Trail and Burks,
DeAndre Swift, Elijah Moore, Jahan Dotson, Pat Friarmuth.
And then we're on the clock at 7:11.
I will admit our picks are already in here.
We weren't able to to get on the horn yesterday to discuss these
decisions, but what were you guys thinking about initially?
When will you found out we're on the clock at 711 here.
Well, I was annoyed because at 6-7 I was messaging you guys
that, hey, JK Dobbins had not had not gone yet.
That was somebody we very loosely talked about the 5-6
turn. But he felt like cover and and
maybe the fact that he slid all the way through the 6th round
past ADP was evidence that Javonte Williams would slide in
this room. Because maybe these drafters are
a little, you know, are uncomfortable with with
unhealthy running backs. And you know, DeAndre Swift was
another running back in that tier.
It seemed like we might get a nice running back follower and
then at the 6-7 turn there was like 4 running backs and five
picks. We also really liked the wide
receivers that might be available at 7-8 and you just
mentioned like five or six of them went in the seven picks
before us. And then Friar Booth was the one
tight end as well that we were very into and he goes one pick
before us. So it was a list of kind of like
if we would have been had been filling out our queue, a list of
targets that that just got wiped out before we got on the clock.
Yeah, it wasn't it wasn't ideal and it came so the guy that you
guys were most interested in I think or the name that was one
of the first names that was floated was Evan Ingram, who I
am like very out on this year, which made this difficult turn.
And then James Connor was the was the value from the ADP
perspective. And none of us are, really.
And Dalvin Cook, I think was the 3rd as well.
That was a value from the perspective.
None of us with that end of Connor.
I take Connor sometimes in Best ball, but he's like hardly an
exciting main event pick. So yeah, they got, I just, I
floated the two names. The other thing that was
difficult about this is that we were all pretty busy this
weekend and so we're trying to do this through chat and it
wasn't. You know, you always want the
pick to be clear and it to be someone that everyone's excited
about. But it's especially tough when
when it's not and then you can't actually get on and do a mini.
So I think this is like a mini that we would have loved to be
on the clock and actually talk through in real time, but none
of us could And so we're just like furiously Discord chatting
while we had a had a break from various obligations.
So the two guys that I floated were were James Cook and Jordan
Addison is the most fun guys that were available.
And I think our big dilemma, right, is, you know, we're all,
we all have the stomach to keep taking wide receivers.
But then you do start to think structurally about, you know,
how are you going to scoop UP0R V targets, scoop up tight end
values and scoop up a punt tight end?
Like you're essentially punting every position other than wide
receiver. And as much as we like the wide
receivers in this range, there does come a spot where you can't
take running backs, quarterbacks, tight ends all in
the same pocket of the draft. I know that's what you were
struggling with as well then. Yeah, that was really the big
thing for me. And this idea of of getting to
seven wide receivers that you guys have talked about as kind
of a focus and a goal since even before I was drafting with you
guys. But I've always been very
comfortable with as well and we've done in the last couple of
years. Was something that I wanted to
talk to a little bit more this year, particularly in the 2023
drafting meta, where the quarterbacks are viewed a lot
differently. Because I think even three years
ago when we talked about getting all that receiver depth.
One of the things you're hoping for is okay, I can still hit on
that late round quarterback that's a top five guy.
Late round tight end is still pretty viable.
Obviously we like the paths that you can get on 0 RB.
In terms of trying to at least mimic, you can't really mimic
legendary upside at running back, but mimic the like RB 3 or
RB Four's production. And something I wrote about last
year is you know calling this Frankenstein running back thing
when you're doing the 0RB thing, how that all adds up and kind of
using some examples, some real life examples.
It's not getting to the 23 plus point scores that pass written
about on legendary upside, but it is getting hopefully close to
the next tier of running back. So my concern.
The reason that that really works is especially like the guy
who found the legendary running back if it took him 5 cracks at
running back to do that. And he ended up with a terrible
team around and put one good player like if you don't
necessarily need, if you're drafting productive players and
crushing him in the flex at wide receiver and you're you're
getting close enough at running back you'll.
You'll be right, right. But so the concern with the the
rising quarterback values in 2023 for me was just, I mean,
did we, did we need to use this term to hit anchors?
That two different positions, so we can start to build that goal
at running back but also at quarterback that we probably
can't match the upside of the elites and that's why
quarterbacks are starting to go higher than ever.
And so the late round quarterback thing, it's not that
hey, I can have this year's QB one, it's that I'm hoping to get
that next tier of quarterback scoring sort of similar to 0 RB.
And then I think you're kind of in a similar boat with tight end
frankly as well. And so do we have enough point
scoring in our starting lineups when we get to 7 receivers in
the 1st 8 rounds? That was a question I wanted to
talk through and and was kind of favoring Evan Ingram.
Even though Pat, you made some really good arguments against
him, I think of him as a floor play and felt like, OK, well at
least we're locking in four points at tight end in this 11
season, 11 week abbreviated regular season.
Yeah, I guess. And the reason that I I like the
ceiling on James Cook. Who ended up being the first guy
that we took which which I think made the most sense because that
was not a wide receiver. And so I was like all right,
let's get at least one non wide receiver with the 2 picks.
I think he's got a pretty exciting ceiling.
I don't think he was a great prospect but second round draft
capital getting really good buzz at camp, you know I doubt he's
like a true goal line back for them.
That seems like kind of you're really just like, you know
that's that's like his 90. 8th percentile outcome or something?
It actually gets used at the Golan a really meaningful way.
But if he's there truly running back on a super high scoring
offense and gets used as a receiver a lot and is explosive,
he can easily pay off this ADP and be a really fun running back
one for us. Yeah, I would.
Go. Ahead.
I'm just gonna pull up the board here and I was definitely on
board with. The James Cook selection and
just also thinking about how these rooms go.
It does feel like FFPC drafters are going to gobble up the 0RB
premium targets even quicker than they are some of these
tight ends. And it did give me a little bit.
I was more comfortable punting these other onesies this year,
just knowing that the landscape is a little different.
Than previous years, the quarterbacks pushed up more and
the tight end tons of value late.
And so I do think making the running back pick with one of
these two made a ton of sense because it could get even
further wiped out by the time we're on the clock at the end of
the night. Yeah, I mean it's it was an easy
pick to start the Zero RB build. I was very in on it as well.
One of the other just notes on Cook's profile for anyone.
Interested. A fun stat on 10 and Singletary.
All four years of his career? Exactly 2.4 receptions per game
in Buffalo. Four straight seasons.
If you go to, like his Pro Football Reference page, it
rounds to the 10th decimal. It's 2.42.42.42.4 and that's
what's really low targets per outrun out of him, Cook actually
showed a little bit more targets.
Power on upside, Zack Moss used to too, like Singletary,
apparently. I don't think running backs
usually draw targets, but like. Maybe just isn't in the right
spot sometimes when he releases they usually just played him on
pass downs cuz he was a good pass blocker I think is the big
thing, but he still soaked up some receptions is my point.
I think Cook is the obvious candidate to take that on, as
Pat was saying. Yep.
And so. We we select James Cook, which I
think is a pick that we all, you know, felt good about, at least
as a consolation prize for some of the other things we wanted to
do. And then kind of like we've done
with some of these other picks with DK Betcalf with Deonte
Johnson, we punted the hard decision to it coming back
around in the next round. It's so Brandy Cooks goes,
Michael Thomas goes. Neither of those guys were in
consideration for us. And now we're back here deciding
between another running back. You guys mentioned James Conner
continuing to go yellow with Jordan.
And Addison? Or do we convince Pat that Evan
Ingram makes sense here? Spoiler alert, Ben and I were
not able to convince Pat. That not for lack of trying.
We really. We literally ran the clock.
I did. I did.
So Saturday night, we're all busy.
Our clock was going to run out Sunday morning.
We literally talked about it until our clock ran out.
Addison, top of the queue. For those watching on YouTube,
you'll see the the auto draft symbol.
We literally were in the middle of our chat.
Like I I mentioned at one point we have 4 minutes of the clock,
4 minute warning and we let it run through.
I think I would have preferred Ingram as much as I like Addison
for the reasons I was laying out with the seven wide receiver
build not necessarily being against that.
But look on a team where we already went Devo and I, you can
kind of talk through how that's going to, you know, there's
that, you know, single element. It's not really a single at this
high of the draft, but probably one of those guys is going to be
startable in almost any scenario I can envision.
We're playing Asia Brown and CD Lamb.
I mean Deonte Johnson. This part of the reason you guys
didn't necessarily want to take him, but he is a target floor
type of guy. I I there's injuries can happen
by weeks. Obviously we want to be able to
cover those. There's a lot of reasons that
we've always loved wide receiver depth, but I did feel like
Ingram in particular. He was third in the NFL and
routes run last year. He was at 523.
Only six tight ends were over 450 so he was a pretty big gap
over even like the 7th and 8th tight ends in routes run.
He didn't earn volume in a massive clip, but pretty pretty
solid for a guy running that many routes.
And the bigger thing with the Jags, all four of their main
guys ran a ton of routes. Christian Kirk was up over 600.
Zay Jones also was up over 500. Marvin Jones is at like 474.
They didn't have another wide receiver or tight end on their
entire roster that had 100 routes run.
So the addition of Ridley, Pat, you made a good point here that
that could be a problem for Ingram.
But with Marvin Jones leaving, Ingram still fits in with that
main 411 personnel, 3 receivers and the tight end.
Where I think it's really easy to project him for 450 plus
routes, which is probably going to put him at top five in the
league. You know, especially if he's up
over 500 routes like he was last year.
The ceiling probably not great, but it's I think it's still
possible. He had a really solid stretch
down down the end of the year after his really big game and
whatever it was week 14 or week 15 he had another big game in
the regular season and then another really solid game in the
playoffs. Had 12 catches and two playoff
games. Actually ran more routes than
Kirk in the playoffs. So he was getting used even more
late when the Jaguars are starting to come on some
potential at least for a second team breakout which we've seen
with tight ends. We saw with Eric Ebon, we saw
Greg Olsen if you go way back, but I don't I I I kind of agree
with you Pat, that he doesn't really have the talent.
I just felt like the floor here on a very concentrated routes
based offensive floor for routes, the floor for receptions
and tight end premium was all going to be pretty solid and
help our build in a way that like Okay, we've at least
checked that box and now we don't have pressure to hit.
Lay around QB, lay around tight end and 0RB and all these, you
know, coming rounds. Yeah.
And I my thing with with Addison partly it's that like you know
this is a so it's different environment.
You know in terms of the overall like meta fantasy landscape of
where wider Sears are being drafted compared to years past.
But if you just look at this draft room like Jackson, Smith
and Jippo went mid 6th, Quinton Johnson went 705 and we had a
chance to take Jordan Addison at the 802.
When he is a very, very strong prospect and early to clear,
highly productive, really checks all the boxes except that he
lands with Justin Jefferson. So he's not going to, you know,
have this massive, massive breakout.
But down the stretch he could still be very productive in an
offense that I think could be very explosive.
And I like the way he layers into this this room.
Like if you're going to take a 7th wide receiver, be really
nice if he were a first round pick who we all expect to be
good. You know, on an offense it's
going to throw the ball like that's a great way to kind of
get that that 7th wide receiver in there.
And so I agree with you that Engram is kind of a floor play
and it just felt like man, but we have a real legit ceiling
play here. You know, again, he's not like
the purest. You know, the Quinton Johnson
would have been an easier sell in that regard, but I do think
he he provides a really nice late season ceiling, which is
kind of exactly what I want in the wide receiver seven in the
spot, so. And then with Ingram, I just
have a lot of concern about about him.
I noted that his, his percentage of routes run out wide was a
career high last year at 23%. I think that's the thing when
you look at the difference between what Ridley and Marvin
Jones bring, that could really hurt because Marvin Jones only
had a route rate of 76% last year.
Ridley's probably going to be where Kirk and Zay Jones were
last year, up around 95%. And so does Kirk or Ze Jones
fall to that 76%, or do you use your tight end out wide a little
less, and he actually sees a lower route rate than he had
last year? I think that's more likely of
the two. And then it comes down to like,
all right, well, how good is this dude?
And if you look at open score for like, his entire career,
he's never been impressive there.
He was tight in 23 in that metric last year.
He drew targets at an 18 percent, 18 1/2 target per route
run. Which is an improvement from an
abysmal 2020-2021 season. He's been more before that
horrible season, which was like 12%.
He was more between like 20 and 22%.
So he, you know, before the the disastrous ending to the Giants
season he'd he'd shown to the Giants tenure, he'd shown an
ability to draw targets at a decent rate.
But he's never been dominant in that regard.
He's never rated well, particularly well getting open I
think. The addition of Ridley could
create kind of a spread out target environment here.
So that's just that was my thing with Ingram.
I feel like you can kind of arbitrage Ingram a little bit
and if we're shooting for floor, I want to do it at the next turn
like I'm like, hey, it's the eighth round, there's a first
round wide receiver who I like his profile, let's grab one last
upside ticket. Yeah.
That I think, was a pretty compelling case, especially
Addison just relative to the other receivers off the board
and at this cost. And I thought back as we were
talking through it to something Pete mentioned while we were on
the 1/2 turn, that we're kind of making a decision here.
And we've talked about this before, Jonathan Taylor went
109, but we're talking about Taylor at the 1-2 turn.
Obviously kind of glad that we don't have him at this point
because we don't really know if this guy's even going to be
playing, but we kind of made the decision at 1/2.
Made the decision at 3-4 about, you know what we would like in
this spot, Addison versus Ingram.
Addison's obviously the better profile.
I'm just talking about structural decisions that I
would be way more in on Addison if we had taken a running back
at 1-2, for example, or a tight end at 1-2 if we'd taken Mark
Andrews, which Pat you wanted to do at that time.
I think I would have been way more in on Addison that.
Did help me, I would have been landfalling to us.
Made that really hard to, yeah. Sure, yeah.
I I agree completely with Ben. Like my concerns are not with
the Addison pick, dare I say in a vacuum, but just strictly
structurally. But we kind of made that choice
early on. And I think one thing I'm
realizing from doing this first FFPC main event is like, this is
a tricky side of the board as it pertains to the onesie positions
because a lot of those guys, both quarterback and tight ends,
are not coming back to you. And then you're having to reach
ahead of their ADP if you want to prioritize them for
structural reasons. And we see that happen with both
Herbert and Fields almost coming back to us, but not Friarmuth
not coming back. And then those other positions
like you have to take those guys early, like you have to take
Josh Allen in the second round if you want him from the
backside of the board. You have to take Andrews early,
Kittle pits early if you want those guys.
And so I do think. We are making the best decisions
for this team in this draft slot.
And one other thing I'll say about Addison and I had
mentioned at the top of the show like I do care about the playoff
Sprint. In this format, the Vikings have
the best schedule. For the playoffs, they're at
Cincinnati week 15 and they have two back-to-back Dome games.
At home verse Detroit. At home verse Green Bay.
They have the fifth highest average projected team, total
weeks 15 through 17 of all the teams.
Higher than the Chargers, higher than all these other teams with
prolific offenses because it is schedule aided by these Dome
games in these matchups. And so having a share of a
really talented first round rookie with the nut playoff
schedule is is exciting to me. Yeah, I'm glad you guys came
around. I capitulated on on Brandon Iuk
and at at the fifth round. I capitulated on Deontay Johnson
in the sixth round and then I immediately took those chips and
cashed him in and said we're not taking Evan and go.
When you look at where Jordan Addison goes relative to these
other guys, I mean, Jordan Addison goes what, like 3 rounds
ahead of Michael Thomas on on underdog most times?
Like, it is pretty insane, the price you're getting on him
relative to the other players. You guys got me really excited
on Addison, for sure, especially now Pete.
That was another really great point that hadn't been brought
up earlier, but I didn't know that yet.
That Minnesota team totals in weeks 15 to 17.
Just fantastic. No there.
It does make me wish that we had taken one last receiver in the
first six rounds. I don't know exactly where, but
like in a perfect 50 or 2020 hindsight you know way.
And just sort of thinking through this being our first
draft and whether or not we have the room to make those early
detours and to to take anchors in other positions, I think we
do. I think that type of a pick
right there with Addison. I don't think we needed a 7th
receiver at this point. And I do think when we get to
around 1415 and we look back, we're going to have to be
telling ourselves a story on the upside of our tight end build,
on the story on the upside of our QB build.
It's going to be a little bit tricky.
I think we're going to like our team, I feel.
I think we're going to like our team, but I I do I worry about
the early season points in an 11 week regular season and how
we're going to be able to realize the upside of this wide
receiver room, which is incredibly high.
I think, I mean that's a that's an obvious counter to this type
of building that's been floated for years.
I do think it is a little bit trickier in 2023.
We'll see, yeah, we'll have to see how the the running better,
but I like about it is that I think we can layer.
Pretty easily. Like the tight ends, the running
backs and the quarterbacks obviously like that's we're
basically done in wide receiver now.
So that's all the rest of our draft.
But like they layer a little bit, like when you look at the
guys we like, it's sort of like they're not all in, you know
around 11:12. It's not like that turn is where
everyone we want is, for example, you know, so I think
we'll be able to get guys we're going to have to make some tough
decisions, but I think we can kind of map it out.
And end up feeling like pretty excited about those three
positions because and we're have to tack it with volume, even
quarterback will probably end up with at least two.
You could talk me into three, but there's there's upside
available like the it's really when I look at some of the ways
we can build this out, it's really like you're taking on
risk, but it's not necessarily like you're giving up upside at
these three positions. I mean, look at only 8
quarterbacks are off the board right now.
Trevor Lawrence was the last quarterback to go at 6:10.
We've gone almost over 2 full rounds with no other quarterback
selections. Even Ingram slides here, which
is a bit of a validation to pass point.
I thought he was going to get snap picked up in this format,
like directly behind us and he slides all the way to the end of
the 8th. And David, the joke who comes
off the board? Right after, thank goodness for
James Connor because I was able to point that he was the the
bigger ADP value. So it's like, yeah, but none of
us wanted James Connor. But I was like, if you're really
a DP Bros, we should take Connor.
He just feels like a wasted pick in this format, too.
And you want to go look at like team total stuff for the
playoffs. It's like you're getting docked
on Connor on both sides. Like when you do have the
projectable volume for him at the start of the season, Kyler's
not going to be playing. They're going to be one of the
worst offenses in the league. And then when Kyler comes back,
if, if that happens, they have the worst projected team total.
They're averaging 15 points per game weeks, 15 to 17.
You got to think they're auditioning other spots in the
line up there. I just.
I do not like James Connor. Unless you're getting a mega
mega discount. Yeah, no, I think that was.
I think I said I was the one who floated him, just cuz as an ADP
value. Yeah.
And I think I said later that I was embarrassed that I even
mentioned him in our check. But I do think it's interesting
that. It does feel tricky like we're
backed into a corner with what we need to do and yet to pass
point. I do think we're going to have
tons of options. When you look, the one spot I
think will probably be a little aggressive here is probably
running backs just making sure knowing like a lot of the upside
candidates can get gobbled up quickly.
But I don't know. I think we're going to be fine
at quarterback and and tight end.
I think we're going to make it work.
I do too. I'm.
Excited to see for sure. All right guys, next time we do
one of these, hopefully we will be officially on the clock.
Like we said, the the weekend dynamics made it hard to get
together there, but we are back in the saddle here, almost
halfway done with this first main event.
Our team to recap through 8 rounds a J.
Brown CD Lam Debo, Samuel, DK Metcalf, Brandon I You, Deontay
Johnson, James Cook, Jordan Addison.
The people wanted a true 0RV build.
They want us to reestablish the brand.
We'll hear you guys go 7 wide receivers through 8 rounds.
We'll see you guys next time on the clock.