Hello everybody and welcome to week 2 edition of statue.
A seing we have a really exciting week of football to
discuss a lot of really high wide receiver scoring from
Stefon Diggs, really highlighted the week with a 40.
Five point four minutes and a lot of interesting other
situations that running back to discuss the some of the top
players posting lower-than-expected scores.
So yeah. It was exciting.
Week Draco, how'd everything, go for you in week, two, for a
fantasy perspective. Yeah.
Fun week for sure. And I thought I had a sweat in a
DFS, kind of ironic. I put that big post out like
this is why I'm focusing on. The bottle rails now.
And then I saw had a bunch of tickets on a Draft Kings and I
enter them into the into the Jukebox, which is about 150,000.
And like, you know, I'm not gonna spend a lot of time on
this just chime in there. And then, at some point I was I
was in the top place for read the Jukebox and then yeah,
couldn't pull it out. Had to shoot a couple.
I think I'd tree scores above 220 points.
Wow. I want I want enough for a pack
of a six-pack of Bud Light in the end.
Yeah, that's that's what you have in those lineups.
And they were it was definitely stalking the Miami and both of
my game, got it. Yeah, it seems like we didn't
have to us of water or to it a hill or maybe you maybe even
needed both to take down this tournaments.
Yeah, we also had a pretty insane sweat in our main event
team. I know people don't want to hear
about. Outer leaks, but we were down 80
points going into Monday Night, Football had Jalen hurts and
Stefon Diggs. They both went nuclear and we
ended up winning by just a handful of points, which was,
which was pretty exciting for Monday night.
So yeah, a lot of crazy scores going up in general as well.
Get into as we go through the data here.
But but, yeah, I think we can, we can jump into it.
Had a great reception from folks for week.
One. So will largely stick this in
format that you may be familiar with now and yeah trickle.
Why don't we just get started with the quarterbacks here?
And then just want to say good evening to you too, the
Achievers? Yeah, thanks for tuning in.
And yeah, for those of you guys watching will answer questions.
We'll try to answer questions as we go through these.
So feel free to chime in with comments and questions.
Yeah, so anyways, on the quarterback side again, just to
describe what we're looking at here, we have TV rate on the
y-axis and adjusted yards per attempt on the x-axis, which is
a yards per attempt adjusted for interceptions and touchdowns,
and the size of the bubbles here again.
Is rushing yards. It's to see which of you know
the Lamar Jackson Jalen hurts Marcus mariota's type pop out
here. So with that said I think I
noticed a couple interesting things in this chart to up there
in the far, right corner is one, but drink all gets you any any
big quarterback takeaways from this chart, which, and again, to
be clear, this is what you get, what weeks one, and two
combined. So, not just week to, but both
weeks wanted To any takeaways here.
Yeah, I did want to start with a question that we got in the in
the Discord and it was essentially, how come on, Matt
Ryan was so bad and it's a, it's a, it's an easy answer, he's
obviously an older quarterback, but the big problem for him was
that his best receiver in the game.
His top targeted receiver in the game was actually do and who was
a career point Gunner. So that add that, obviously,
that system predictable results at or easy easy to call a
predictive result after the fact.
Yeah, they've been being out. Definitely, definitely seems to
have heard him for sure for sure.
And so some other takeaways I had was so you can see just how
pearly Kyler color Murray performed there he's kind of
Hidden Away in this kind of cluster Davis.
Mills Marcus Mariota cluster never want to be in the Davis
Mills Marcus Mariota and so, yeah, I did a little bit of
digging on it and it kind of Are not it kind of it looks like
they were relying on Hollywood Brown to in the alpha role.
So he was like, the top targeted receiver.
He was getting like a turkey nay dot, which is like, that's the
kind of alpha a DOT and just brutal results.
Absolutely brutal results and it really does look like they're
missing and new cop cans and awful lot.
Like, I guess there was some hope that Hollywood Be able to
kind of like soak up those sort of Targets in the early goings,
but it does seem clear. That's not the type of receiver
that he is and and I guess with this being a kind of, like, I on
Resurrection stuff to note that nuke, those come back in week 7.
So that would be something that I would kind of look for a
decent jump there for Kyler. And once new comes back, Yeah, I
agree with that with the resurrection.
If collars ATP is falling. I'm still buying there because,
yeah, like you said, it doesn't start to leak.
Six love nuke back. I think, you know, with nuke
back that could put Marquis Brown into a more natural
position as a field stretcher. Secondary Target similar to what
he played for the Ravens last year with Mark Andrews is Alpha
Target earner. I think that might be a more
natural role for Marquis. Once once Hopkins is back and I
think you could see this card Offense start to click a little
bit more, you'll have Rondell more, hopefully healthy, Zach
ertz, hopefully more healthy than he started off the year as
maybe travel abroad coming on late certainly, a poor start for
Murray in the first two weeks but I am not panicking
especially if his price starts to fall right behind the so he
is ATC is still at 50. So yep and and I guess people do
it does seem like people are holding off on the resurrection
until we get more. More information and which I do
think makes sense. And, but when, when Jalen Hertz
is qe5, and going just so early and it does it does make an ATP
of 50 more palatable, like it still hurts.
Just gonna fix her. You 652 doesn't sound too bad
and but obviously you probably do want to look for a bit of a
slide. Even the performances, but at
the same time, I think it's important not to forget how
volatile fantasy football can be and ham have volatile.
Just production can be because if you were to look at the color
Maurice and the Cardinals offensive performance at the
start of last year, it was, it was gangbusters.
They could do no wrong. They were in shootout, either,
they were in shootouts, or they were just scoring so many.
Points on the opponent that the other side couldn't keep up.
So I guess I just wouldn't forget about that just because
that they've had this kind of like / result to start the
season. Yep, I'm totally on board on
board there. I think huge games are still
definitely within collars range of outcomes.
I think Draco we can touch on a little bit is maybe quarterbacks
on the, you know, low-end qb1 high-end qb2 border because
there are a lot of teams out there that are going to lose
DAC. Or that I've lost act that I've
lost Trail ants to injuries for a good stretch.
Do you have any preference? Let me throw it for names to
you. Okay, said of out of out
performed early season expectations, a little bit, kind
of a handful of pocket pastors here and to, uh, Jared golf,
Carson, Wentz, and Trevor Lawrence.
For me, I like golf quite a bit. I think he would be my, my
preference there the Lions, but it's not shown on this chart,
but after you may not cost, right?
Yeah. Sorry I cost.
Yeah, I'm talking sort of ATP for best ball.
Resurrection important to make that clear.
I think I cost Jared Goff still goes.
I believe in the 1880s. The Lions have one of the
highest Pass rates over expectation of any team in the
league so far. And I think the lines weapons
are still under rated in terms of the who have the general
public perceives them. I think people are finally
catching on to a monstrosity and brown, he's way up there.
Obviously, Swift is way up there, but they're secondary
guys Jameson Williams, DJ char. TJ Hawkinson Jamaal Williams.
They have a bunch of good players here on offense, and I
think similar to what you saw with Jerry golf in l.a. back.
In the day, when you surrounded by Playmakers, he can
effectively lead an offense and put up some pretty big spike
weeks and fantasy. Also looks like the Lions
defense is going to continue to be a weaker for them so it's a
team that's throwing a lot. It's got good weapons with a bad
defense. I'm pretty bullish on Lion
Stacks even at the elevated prices for mantra and Swift
right now. Yeah, I couldn't agree more and
so it looks like Goff has moved up a little bit.
He's moved up to 155, okay? And split still like for the
type of performance is that you've been getting that is
still really really strong and and I think as well, there's
been like comments that like he still looks like got it It's not
like he's transformed into this order like being out of nowhere
and he's just destined for some kind of regression.
He's still playing you still playing like Jared Goff you just
kind of been dragged Along by. Yeah.
Really, really strong weapons. Yep, yeah, I agree with.
That is what I think is, you know, a system quarterback.
And when the system is good, and I think it is right now, I'm
buying the Lions. I think, I think he can be good,
but yeah, let's let's maybe move on to two running backs here.
I think that was a good discussion on the quarterbacks
So here again, for running backs, we're looking at workload
here on this chart versus efficiency, that's how to think
about it at a high level. So, on the y-axis, we have
receiving expected fantasy points per game.
The x-axis is rushing fantasy points per game.
Add those two together and you have a good sense, good sense of
the opportunity that each individual running back is
getting in their respective offenses.
Also you can see in the chart, the size of the bubble is
fantasy points over expected. So someone like DeAndre Swift
who's ripping off massive runs on a fairly light workload.
You see enough sort of a huge bubble here.
Whereas someone like Joe Mixon who is more so more or less just
surviving on a massive workload, but not showing any great.
Efficiency has a really small bubble here.
So that's sort of the overview of the chart.
What's shown here just to be clear is Running backs with more
than 10 or sort of round 10 or more fantasy expected, nasty
points per game, which is a group of about 30, or so running
backs. So, trigger anything, from a
workload perspective that jumped out to you in week, 1 on the
running backs and so I guess, one thing that I helped me
understand this chart a little bit better.
Those are the lines those diagonal lines if they're to the
right of those lines. And essentially that Josh
Jacobs, you can see has more than 10 expected points per
game. Yeah, I don't know.
You probably did say that. And now, that's a good.
That's a good point. Yeah, those different ranges.
You can see that they're sort of color coded, but that's a good
way to think about it. So, on the far right side there,
those are the guys with the biggest workloads, they're just
the right of sort of a line that would connect 22:20, if we
rewrite, they can of charts. That means that Berkeley mixing
Antonio Gibson. Are all in this Elite work load
range of more than 20 expected fans request for game.
But yeah, that's a good thing to point out, Rick.
Oh, I'll let you continue. And so, honestly to start off
with the kind of like the box with the big expected Point
workloads. Joe Mixon, is honestly one of
the most intriguing for me in that he just got so many.
He's got so many expected points and He has got such a high
percentage of the expected points.
He's got 84 percent of the expected points for, and the
Bangles and, and just just for comparison.
Sake, one has the highest percentage at 93%.
So that's, that's a real. Not only is he getting volume he
done in really high percentage of the volume.
And a big part of that is just how many plays and the Bangles
are running. any, but the I guess, Even even with some kind
of regression on the, on the play volume and if they have
like, a more normal play volume, he still got this huge workload
and a big part of the kind of undershoot on or are say, under
performance on the fantasy points.
It's just, he hasn't gotten. He hasn't converted the
touchdowns and that he would be expected to.
So he's at about Mona, 14 expected points and about Eight
of that is just from touchdowns and it.
Honestly, Sam, this is at this it's a difficult one for me
because yeah, and he's going at the to treat urn, which seems
kind of palatable, but yeah, at the same time I don't I don't
know how I've never been a Joe Mixon drafter of never.
I don't, he's never been that interesting for me, but at the
same time, If he keeps up that percentage and he doesn't get
hurt, it's almost inevitable that he has another big year.
Yeah, I am definitely more bullish on Nixon than when I
started the year. And it's interesting that is ATP
is actually Fallen slightly compared to is sort of preseason
ATP. And I think the biggest thing
that jumps out is the receiving usage, right?
You know he's still not playing all the third Downs.
It's pure and still getting a lot of that work but they target
him heavily on 1st and 2nd down. And, you know, part of that.
My guess is that they're 0 line has been such a disaster.
That burrow is not able to get the ball deep to Higgins and
Chase and he's forced into a lot more.
Check towns to mix in. You're also seeing hurst's usage
pretty strong as well from that perspective.
So you know, we'll see if that sticks, but at an ATP of around
20 right now and that's all Resurrection.
You know I'm not super excited by the talent for mixin but the
row looks really good and with I mean running back is really
thinned out. Derrick Henry, he's fallen off a
cliff, it looks like album Camaros.
Workload is way down Nagi Harris.
Has this injury scare combined with a lower workload.
Unexpected like a lot is looking down for some of the top running
backs for mixing things were looking up and if it's sort of a
scarcity thing at running back at the top this year, then Nixon
It seems pretty good to me in the in the late s.
Once all those Elite, the lead wide receivers are off the
board. Yeah, I think it's interesting
as well, and that there was a lot of conversation this year
over, whether all the wide receivers we're being drafted
too high and of the situation downgrades for wide receivers.
But through, I don't think there was a lot of conversation about
about maybe the situations aren't that great for the
running backs eater. Like we had like a huge amount
of over 26 27. 28 year old running backs in the first and
second rounds. And obviously committees are
becoming more and more kind of prominent and the kind of uber
back type that we've seen is less prevalent.
And I guess it is interesting. That Joe Mixon, he's only 26.
So it doesn't feel like he should be only 26, but that's
almost an advantage. I think when you see, he's been
kind of drafted alongside Derrick Henry.
Yeah, yeah and I think that will, I think that will get up
to it as more people draft in the best ball.
Resurrection, I think Ray's ATP will will creep up.
But yeah I think in that light second range I'm definitely
buying Sighing, I think other sort of things, I wanted to
touch on this chart. James Robinson's workload is
really good for we're you drafted him, he's like that 10
to 15 expected Point range. Just to the left of Jonathan
Taylor if you're looking at the chart and he's clearly ahead of
etm right now. And look, I think that will
balance out as the season goes on.
But in terms of just a winner, verse ADP, James Robinson is
awesome. Um, one I had none of I was not
buying the recovery from the Achilles.
I think I might have to change that in future years just given
how many of these guys are coming back so quickly from the
Achilles and the ACLS. I mean, we'll see how it plays
out in the full season but just fully fading a guy because of an
injury was maybe not smart on my point.
Given what he had shown in his house, actually?
Yeah. I think is, well, what's
interesting about James Robinson?
It's not only. Is he getting work out.
He's playing well. Yep, he's a sexy.
He's getting a positive and, or in some in.
So, in some ways you getting a positive Fantasy Point over
expected, he is scoring coach sounds, he is Russian for yards,
and that's the sort of thing that asks that kind of Demands
more more usage. and he he is a player who we know to be a
really good running back, he is a good running back and I think
that if you drafted etn, which I did when he was in the fourth
and fifth rounds and area, and in the offseason, That's it.
Son, I think you're almost getting a little bit.
Squeeze there by just how good and James Robinson is playing.
And I guess the one, I guess, positive for etn is that they're
the only two running backs to get use.
That's, that's the one kind of like, you're not going to get.
I think you're bearing another injury to James Robinson, which
we don't want to see. You're going to be totally
disappointed with etn, but the one Saving Grace Is they running
up to so it's only getting split up two different ways?
Yeah. Now that's true and I think etn,
you know, I think he will continue to get more involved.
It's also a team, we're outside of Cristian Kirk, they're really
running out some questionable town at wide, receiver with Mark
Jones, A Jones Jamal agnew's getting snaps.
It's a, it's an offense where you could see a lot of the
targets, go to the running back and tight end.
So, you know, etm he was not a good pick in the third round.
I don't think you're Dead. They're not off the offense
looks decent so far that you know, there's still outs for
etm, maybe with the James Robinson injury, but I don't
like I think before the season people were thinking that he can
fully dust Robinson, I don't think his role is going away.
He looks, he looks good. He's played well before and that
offense, I think he's going to continue to maintain a decent
sized rule there. Yeah.
And that is a good point that the best part.
Probably the best players in the offense are James Robinson and
Yugi. And which helps both of them.
Really, I think. Yeah.
Agreed, agreed. My my love note to Antonio
Gibson and it didn't pay off in week 2.
And but what was interesting is that he still maintains that
kind of Double-Double expected point and workload and I guess
the roots were close to 50/50 with mckissack but I still think
that if he's getting half the if he's getting hot at least half
the receiving workload for the commanders and I've I guess I'm
feeling a little peevish about my maybe he should be going.
He he should be going in the foreground.
But and it does seem like there is still a very strong work
though, they're still a very talented player and that I'm
still hopeful that he breaks off.
Map, some big plays to add to make me look a little smarter.
Yeah. And he has a lot of room to
address. Like I don't think I think we
probably weren't expecting him to maintain that Double-Double
for the whole season but he could, you know, at his cost you
could regress pretty far on this chart from the workload
perspective and still be worth is right.
You in the 60s you know his workload is far exceeding that
of the guys going in his range currently.
So I still like him, he's going to see what, is it 63 right now?
You know, right around etn around Zeke, around cream, Han
around JK Dobbins, there's risk there but there had all those
guys are super risky, right? And I still like rights and at
that cost, a few spent a bunch of early round picks a lot
receiver and he need a running back with with some upside down
the street. And he's really hasn't moved up
that much. No like I think when we also did
this, he was going to run 67 there.
He's going to pick 60 tree, that's it.
I that, that is still like you leave a lot of room for error,
and I do a lot of room for dr. Really smash, too.
Agreed. So I'm going to move to the next
running back chart here, that shows running backs with less
than 10 or so expected points per game.
Just so we can visualize it better.
But before we do that, I do want to call into attention where
Tony Pollard is on this chart. He's right around on the chart
this week. Is he he made it on the chart
this week at 10 expected points per game but who you do not see
on this chart? Is Ezekiel Elliott who is
actually on the next chart. Art at just you'll see, I'm sort
of in the middle to the right side and the yellow band on this
chart at less than 10 expected points per week.
So this is not something I'm hearing people talking about,
but based on usage and weeks. One and two Pollard has actually
flipped Zeke in terms of usage. Now that is heavily driven by
receiving usage and targets. As you can still maintaining a
higher, snap share getting more rushes but Pollard Seeing a much
bigger receiving role, he was given a goal line touch last
week at the one-yard line. He had a big catch and they look
to him on the one-yard line to punch it in, you got it done,
you know, I don't think he's going to steal the goal, line,
roll from seek. I think that was, maybe a little
bit of a feat of a fluke, but I do think that, you know, if the
Cowboys offense can get better, I think we're going to see
closer to a 50/50 split than what we've seen in years past
with the c compiler. Third, I think Zeke looks quite
bad and these games. And if the Cowboys have really
any chance of winning games, they're going to be looking to
get Paul or more involved. The last one, I'll add.
There is the wide receiver corpse is just a disaster.
Now, Noah Brown's becoming a Target hog somehow.
Dalton Schultz is injured with the PCL injury, who knows on
Gallop, but their trotting out a really, really weak wide.
Receiver core. Dennis Houston.
I think is getting snaps no idea who he is.
So There's room in this offense for a running back to get a
higher Target share that we might expect just based on on
the offense. So yeah.
Any thoughts there on the Parlor and Zeke, I think you've you
sufficiently dance on the grave of as well, what?
Yeah, right, it gives you then. Yeah, it's a fun based on my
preseason shares of Zeke, I'm very happy to do that.
Dance. I, I do, I do want to point out
that based on workload. Javante is firmly ahead now.
Melvin Gordon, and they, he, I think he was, it was somewhere
around 15 to 25 expected points last week, somewhere, around
that range and data. If you Drafting in Javonte at
the to treat turn. That is a, it's a really nice
outcome. I do think though that and I,
obviously fish fantasy football, deficiencies super volatile, he
does have to start playing better, to keep Melvin Gordon
off the field but and that it's definitely very, it's a very
notable development, I think. Yeah, Agreed.
And I think, you know, I'm selling this for people who
watch more films than me, but you hear people say Javonte
looks way, more explosive, way more likely, to rip off a big
run, but Gordon is still better at finding the whole, you know,
grinding out. Those 67-yard runs were, maybe
Javonte missus, missus where the play is going a little bit.
So you can see that in the chart here, Melvin is showing as a bit
more efficient through the first two weeks.
But I don't think that's likely to hold just based on their
trajectory. I think table, they will be more
efficient than Gordon the long run but Hey Gordon.
So, again player, if you draft a Koreans cost, I think that's
that's a win. He has a solid role as an rb2 in
this offense, for sure. So, just just, I guess to
clarify, on my stock here in week 2, Devante was about 14 and
a half expected points while Melvin Gordon was six and a
half. And so, I guess that thoughts
did just to clarify clarify. Why that might look different to
the to the chart. So we did, we actually got a
question in from, from Pete, about the Arizona and what the
hell happens, once James Conner came down and the not good for
you now, unfortunately, right. It's not great.
So, what if you look at the the workload overall, it was closer
to 5050. It was pretty the one.
That the one thing that Kind of our shaded two teams that kind
of pushed the mentor ahead so he got a little bit more work in
the red zone so you got about four opportunities versus to for
Eno and then to inside the ten it was 24 and the mentor one for
Eno and then at Williams also had the 30-yard run at which
obviously was pretty nice for his usage.
So I guess it's It's not, it's consolation prize that they were
closer to 5050, but it wasn't like and James Conner went down
and then, you know, still the backup.
It was, I guess it was close to 50/50 but and still not great if
when James Conner goes down and you know, still is a At not
getting knocked, he doesn't have the contingent value.
That we talk, what are you doing?
It does seem to have some solid Standalone value.
Yeah, I agree with that. It was a bit of a different
story in week one, it looks like you knows clearly ahead there,
but clearly the Cardinals will play it a little bit
differently. Once once James Conner actually
goes down as we saw last week. But again, I'm adding both of
these guys. If we're talking managed season
long, I'm I'm taking steps of both.
I think I would slightly prioritize the mentor ovary no
but it's close I wouldn't pay a big price difference there in
terms of Fab. I think they're both solid
speculative ads and maybe you get one or two starts out of
them. One thing I wanted to talk about
in this chart here Draco was tdps rushing workload.
Yeah, on the bottom to start here you can see a couple of
just pure to down Grinders and Tyler algier.
Interior Davis, price or getting zero, receiving work.
But pretty heavy, rushing game workloads for TDP.
I think this is interesting because he has a high ankle
sprain. Now at expect them to be out
four to six weeks or so. That's generally what you see
with this injury. So there's a pretty big rushing
workload there. Also, if you mind straight
Lance's down, that's additional rushing workload, that's going
to go to someone, I think this Jeff Wilson roll, just at by
default because there's no one else there could start to get
quite big. Big.
And I'm also taking steps on both Marlon, Mac and Jordan
Mason as the rb2 there with both Mitchell and TDP out for a long
stretch, I think there's going to be two running backs that
have value here. So it's a matter of just spray
and pray with with San Francisco and hope you land.
Someone that gets part of this Russian workload.
So we just want to say, I appreciate you and Kaz and so,
yeah, I always have a tough time with these kind of pure rushing,
grinder type box because obviously we use a predominantly
kind of like inner hero or zero or be where you are just trying
to find some cheap points at running back the I guess because
and it's probably because I was a lot of what I play is kind of
just tournaments and The guy is starting to the guys that are
those pure rushing down grinders.
It does, unless you got a kind of like a larger Mitchell
situation where they just dust everyone else, they are
receiving profile. It's it does seem like it's hard
for them to be the guys that can really push it over the top and
let's say a shootout in the main event or any other kind of
tournaments, but they are definitely useful.
They're all useful pieces and just trying to get some points.
It's on on your starting lineup as you try and unearth.
The next that Elijah Mitchell or James Robinson or whoever it is,
that that can get you 15 to 20 point week with some some
regularity that make sense. Yeah, that makes sense.
Yeah, I think I agree. I don't think these guys have a
ceiling and a GP, you know. Jeff Wilson.
The pencil is priced at he could maybe get you there as right.
Shocked Play that you need at a cheap price but I imagine he
gets priced up now. Yeah I'm more talking waivers
and the main event in deeply right?
And I wasn't really, I didn't really mean and DFS because
obviously we're going back is 5K and there are certain running
back, they can obviously get there.
What we have seen in terms of, like, let's say you're doing a
shoot out in the main event and on you want 20 points, it does
feel harder for those guys to get that.
Yep. Yeah, I agree.
Probably low lower upside because of that we I mean San
Francisco's just such a unique situation where I've almost
learned to treat it differently than almost any other running
back situation. And then I fell, where there's
just insane, rushing workloads for these guys.
They're not going to catch us on a passes, but they can.
If one of them does consolidate, the workload, with writings the
best bet right now, he's had big multi TD Russian games in the
past ripped off. Some long runs, Yeah, I think if
you find the starter, they can get you there.
The backup, not so much but it's just to get you, you know, one
man away from maybe and that starter if Wilson goes down, but
I totally hear what you're saying on the sort of the capped
upside for for that role in itself.
So any other points here on the running backs, you wanted to hit
on. Yeah.
So one thing that I was interested, I was interested in
was last night and the gap between and Dalvin cook and
Madison. So I was this doesn't show up in
the kind of like two weeks average, but it was, it was a
lot closer to a 60/40 split 4000 and Madison last night.
And if you You were draft and David Cook in the first round on
the idea that he was going to be an 80 to 90%.
Share guy every game. That's I think that's got to be
a little bit alarming. And oh yeah and promising for
for a rat and Madison drafters as well especially with some of
the food that came true in the offseason.
So it's hard to know where the kind of like true average.
Split is No Lie. Maybe Madison played more last
night because of game script or something like that.
Whereas cook played more in against Green Bay because
because it because they were winning so much.
But if now you're introducing this kind of snuff volatility
for the two of them, where eater than can wear cook can be game.
Scripted Downs with a 60% workload that is that's very
different. What we're used to from them
too. Yeah, I agree with that.
I wonder if part of it was last night, it really got into pure
sort of blowout territory and maybe that was why you saw
Madison play more. But even without that cook, does
not seem to have as big of a Stranglehold on this role.
As we expected Madison is maybe a little bit more usable as a
flex pain. Play than we thought if he's
going to get a decent share of the work, their butt.
You know, the Viking I think will be better days ahead for
the Vikings. I think something about Kirk
Cousins on prime time. It's like a meme, but it's so
true. He just he can't get it.
Done in prime time and that offense really collapsed.
Trick. We did have one question in the
Discord from asan on Seattle. Running back situation for yes.
Can we trust any running back in Seattle?
This is, this is so disgusting. Travis Homer, doesn't even
appear here but I think led the team in snaps God.
I think my answers language is no, I think that's it.
That's the key. Like you're never going to be
II. Don't think you're ever going to
be excited late? I need these guys and we started
at Rashad Penny and last week And we're really hoping to not
ever have to do at this point for now.
We're really hoping to not have to do that and anytime soon.
And I think that the hardest thing is that you've just it's
just such a full-blown committee that you've got multiple guys.
They're going to share the Russian workload and there's not
going to be a whole lot of rushing touchdowns.
At, you've got Travis Homer, who's the third down guy but how
how valuable is, you know, Smith's turned down at checkdown
guy? It's it doesn't seem to be that
valuable. No, it's definitely not.
And, you know, if I was really to force myself to pin an upside
scenario for one of these guys, I think you do want Kenneth
Walker over anyone, in this group, he did, you know, he's
not expected to have much of a receiving roll coming to the
NFL. He didn't show up here with
close to five receiving expected fantasy points per game.
So, perhaps there's a world where they dust Homer and deejay
Dallas. And these guys, and they commit
to Walker in the third, no. Able, I don't think that's
likely, but I think it's possible.
Look, they spent a second round pick on this guy.
I think he's more likely to have that role than Penny given penny
at something insane, like two Targets last year, you know, in
10 games played or whatever. He's just an absolute zero and
how they want to use them in the past game.
So, I think Walker has more upside to capture that passed
down role, and maybe we see a situation, like, with the Jets
backs, you know, where it's running backs on this terrible
team, that are throwing a lot. Maybe Walker can sort of, you
know, accumulate Target. In that scenario.
But we need Homer to get out of the way first.
And as of right now, that's not going to happen.
Unfortunately. And I guess the one thing, the
one kind of like shining, Beacon of Hope, is that there has been
games were shot paying just goes nuclear on efficiency of where
he gets his six to seven yards per carry games and and it's all
the stuff we're talking about, do it doesn't matter, because
She's just playing so well. And he kind of Walker was so
good as a rusher in college that it's really not difficult to
Envision him having those games either.
But for now it's you kind of start them really right?
No you can't start them with confidence it's a it's a it's a
prayer if you put them into your RV to which unfortunately I will
probably be praying to Pete Carroll and some leagues next
week when I'm forced to start. Shot Penny.
Last thing. I wanted to touch on here.
Running back is see eh. He has the biggest fantasy
points over expected on this chart.
I would have to double check but I think perhaps even the biggest
maybe only to chub and Diandra Swift Out of all running backs
through two weeks. So, you know, I was doing a best
ball, Resurrection Draft today, and I saw CH is a DP.
P going in the 40s, and I am almost fully fading him there.
I think, you know, if you chapter 3 overall, he's number
tree and at a fantasy points over expected agreed.
Yeah, good. Okay, I gotcha that.
Thanks for double-checking that. Yeah.
That was just weak to. Okay, well, bad, no, that's all
good. But I think it's something close
to that. I think he's top five in fantasy
points over expected. He does not have the goal line
roll lockdown. We've seen both McKinnon and
Pacheco. Get goal line.
Touches McKinnon is still true, everyone's well.
Number three, overall, gotcha. McKinnon is still quite involved
as a receiver. I think Pacheco as a rookie his
role could grow throughout the year.
So you know CH you draft him at pick 80 to 100 in the preseason.
And you're loving that, you got a pretty good value there.
He's gonna pop out first like weeks, but at an ADP in the 40s
I am most likely taking a wide receiver there.
I think that's far too rich based on what his role has been
so far. And I think the market is
overreacting to some extreme efficiency.
So far from CH, which based on what we know about him.
As a talent through the first two years, in the NFL, I am
highly betting that, that efficiency does not hold
throughout the year, Yeah, I mean it's almost like so the the
running back the starting running back row for for Chiefs,
is valuable in that you get to play with my homes and the Reed
is this great offensive mind that we're kind create the
efficiency for probably. So power Talons.
And but like you said, if you drop it and in the 100's and
after last year, Where he just looks so bad.
And every other, every other running back, they brought in
look Mi better down on the fact that he is playing well has to
be encouraging but I don't see a teepee of 40 like Dede to.
That is an unpalatable price. No, you're getting just way too
little workload there. Anyways let's move on to the
wide receiver position. So looking at this chart here,
for those who tuned in last week we have slightly changed up, how
we're going to look at wide receivers on the y-axis.
Here, we have fantasy points per game, going up, the top, and
then on the x-axis, same as last week, we have waited targets,
per route, run for those who are unfamiliar with weighted
targets, per route, run. It is a stat that factors in
targets per route wrong but adjusts it for are yards.
So a Target 50 yards down the field.
Is worth more than a screen pass.
So, looking at this chart here, I think an interesting way to
read it is looking I sort of broke up this chart into four
segments, we have in the top right corner.
Those are guys with high waited targets per route runs and high
fantasy points per game. So these are guys with big roles
that are performing in the bottom, right?
We have what I called by Lowe's. These are guys with big
opportunities, big way to Tarts for out wrong, but if not shown
Much of a fantasy points ceiling so far.
And then on the left hand side, we have guys who have lower
roles and on the top there guys with lower roles that are
scoring. A lot of points that might be a
signal that you might want to sell some of these guys.
Hi. And then in the you know bottom
left quadrant I just call this guy's cardio Specialists there.
They're not getting much opportunity, the running a lot
of routes and they're not really scoring points.
So we're going to start with the wide receivers here who have
Ranma More than 90 route or sorry, higher than 90% of routes
run of their team's drawbacks. These are guys that are running
almost every single route. So with that said, drink, I'll
kick it to you. Anything jump out here, the two
weeks perhaps, someone whose role looks a lot better than you
expected going into the season. So am I guess the one thing I
thought that is kind of drugging and probably a big part of it is
duties injury and Courtland, Sultan had that Courtland Sutton
had a had that really strong opportunity and he I guess
Jerry, Judy made Russell Wilson, look good last week and court
and Sutton made him look good for a play and this week.
So I do I do think that's interesting that after like,
after a week where the wide receivers weren't really
involved for Denver, that Court, insulting kind of like jumps
back up and I am honestly, I am a little bit surprised that
Cristian Kirk has been able to kind of like be kind of firmly
in that strong performer quadrant because he always, he
always kind of seem to me to be more alongside the what's His
name, Hollywood brand sort of like type of player.
So the fact that he is getting that type of Target chair and
performing with it is obviously super bullish for him and yeah
super interesting for Kirk yeah. You almost wonder if you do
yeah. Sorry go ahead.
Do I say almost wonder on Kirk if you know this Kingsbury
system is so bad. That wants players.
Get out of it. They look they look even better.
Maybe, you know, for those who have died and she shares of
Rondell more, that's some some false hope to hold on to.
But yeah, I was shocked by that with Kirk to, he's not a guy, I
think of as a high Target in her High, you know, over 20 fantasy
points per game so far, but his role looks really good.
You know, he's not going to maintain this efficiency.
That would be insane. But I think, obviously your
pumps with where you took him. Yeah.
Sorry to cut you off track. I don't know if you let other no
no, no, you are good. And so I think that it's
interesting at Jahan dachshund as a kind of sell High it.
Now with these kind of high performing rookies, it can be,
it can be tricky to put a sell High notice on them and just
because they have so much were they can often have so much room
to grow, but the fact that He's running this really high for a
rookie route. Share.
Not getting great targets but has put up the points.
Those kind of like that does sort of scream as a regression
candidate. Yeah he does need to get over
ski when he went and excitement from is, maybe we need to see a
little bit more before we truly get excited.
Just because he's not and he's not earning targets at the rate
that we would want to see to get excited for a rookie.
Yeah, that's that's a good point.
He is not learning the targets but he has been super Vision
when Yue has been targeted. So you know with on the sell
High thing, I think that's sort of just a general way to think
about it. But I don't think I think it's
important to consider the context of each player, right?
And Datsun as a first round. Rookie who when some of these
first round rookies, like, you know, George Pickens have done.
Absolutely nothing on the field, and getting a lot of snaps.
I'm still excited by the fact that he is scoring touchdowns.
He's producing, he's out there, he's made some highlight reel
catches, it's not the profile of someone.
I am extremely excited about, you know, I'm not taking over
Drake London now and Dynasty and not taking him over Gary Wilson,
obviously. Obviously, those guys have
flashed a lot more, but I think it's still promising again.
To his cost but currently is going 80, I think in the low 80s
on the best of all Resurrection. I operate, it is yards per run,
it's just you know, six. 1.6 1.06.
Yep. Okay so I guess he's not, he's
not earning targets and even even if he and and that is kind
of like an ADA adjusted at Target metric and he's not
getting yardage, but he has had touchdown efficiency.
Hmm. Now, again like like, you're
talking, he's a rookie and there's room for rookies to grow
but I did want to make That point.
Now I think it's a good one that if you know don't expect the tea
and Santini ready for a John off, Datsun to continue, one
thing, I wanted to call out here and we slandered CD lamb a lot
on the show last week. I think I'm I think I'm actually
back in on CD lamb in the high third.
Mid to high 30s. That's where I got them in the
best ball. Resurrection, drafted a look.
His role is still pretty massive, and we've made this
argument before with the target competition.
But again, I'll restate it. The wide receivers there that
they're trotting out, Noah Brown, Dennis Houston.
Just known in guys, Dalton Schultz.
Now, looks like he's going to miss some time.
I think seed Almost has to get more efficient and score more
points based on the target Charities, getting.
And again, I think part of the discount you're getting on him.
Now, is the fact that deck is injured, but in the best or
Resurrection, Jack, will be back for the playoffs.
Should be back for a good chunk that regular season?
I think. So, I was totally fading.
See, at the one to turn this year.
I think it was so clear that there was just better wide
receivers available. But once you get into the mid
30s, you can't find many guys. With roles from a Target burning
perspective that look as good as he Lam.
So, you know, I even think that price could continue to drop so
maybe you want to wait a little bit and see if you can get even
a better price. But his role just looks really
good from a Target, everyone note on the resurrection.
So the scoring starts in week 6 and Jerry Jones just came out
today and obviously a wildly optimistic.
He said that could prep play. Week four is it's not going to
play in week 4. But if you I guess if he came
back in week six or seven you're obviously feeling very good
about at Roundtree or four-cd lime, right?
Yeah I agree. Any thoughts here maybe the
cover up with Maris name for Sean.
I think what the cheevers is pointing out is maybe we do need
to talk about Amari Cooper a little bit.
He is he is flashing quite a Big role and and like the plumbing
made with Doc for CD, there's the same Narrative of the Mari.
We're the Champs Watson is going to be back, you know, week 12, I
believe it is and for the playoff stretch and best ball
Amar'e, you know, you had a really bad week one and then a
really good week to I can't say I watch the games.
Exactly know why. But any thoughts on Amar'e and
his in this price right now and best of all drafts.
And so he still going pick 77 Well, so right around
surrounding on that. Damn and it's going ahead of
names. Like Curtis Samuel is up to 80
tree. He's going ahead of Elijah
murder. Devon to Schmitt going ahead of
Garrett, Wilson Trail and Burks and I, I think that at that, the
price does make it difficult to price is definitely, it's low
enough that it's interesting and And Mary Cooper.
The player is I was just really hard to get excited about
because he's just never been Elite.
And and when I think about these kind of tournaments and I really
do want to be getting the guys who could be getting 25 points
week after week in the playoffs. Not maybe not guaranteed to do
it but have the potential to do it and even, even with With
what's in back. Every it is really hard for me
to imagine that for a merry but the price, they're does make it
interesting in that you can still pick plenty of high up
side guys, and before him and still and still get some strong
weeks out of them. I guess it's probably not going
to be a name that I click too often.
And but I certainly see the case.
That's, that's fair. I think it's a name.
I think we may be slightly disagree there.
I think it's 77, some of the wide receivers you listed after
him. I think those guys is price will
go up guys. Like, well, right?
That's right. I don't think I'm taking Cooper
over over some of those guys but I think Cooper will ultimately
fall in a Range where he's cheap enough and again that wide
receiver room and Cleveland is just is just for rash right now.
It's horrific. Deshawn coming back to Sean is
super cheap. I you know I hate I hate
drafting the Sean. It feels gross but he is really
cheap and especially in this tournament when you know it
starts in week 6 him being out for those six weeks does not
hurt you that much. And is priced, I don't think has
moved up enough to reflect the difference from when you draft
him and need him to start, you know, weeks 1, 1 through 6,
since those points, don't count anymore.
I think the Sean is way too cheap, but I don't want to tell
Charles Watson anymore. Just discussing.
I think other quick eyes will move on to other chart just for
folks listening on audio names that are having incredible role
so far a modern a modern State Brown Cooper cop Justin
Jefferson Davante Adams AJ Brown Jim Marchese.
Cristian Kirk. I think those are pretty obvious
but you should be really happy if you have those.
Guys guys that are running a ton of routes and not performing
Allen Robinson, Devante Smith George Pickens Adams.
Elin. Elijah, more Darnell Mooney.
I don't think by any means those guys are dead and we don't have
enough time to talk about each of them individually.
But there are definitely warning signs there for those guys.
Just wanted to highlight that before we move on to the next
chart, which is going to show wide receivers the same chart,
but now wide receivers running 70 to 90% of routes.
So these are close to full time players.
But for whatever reason, the running slightly less Outs.
The 90% plus, they could be slot players.
This could be disc used by teams that have been in blowout.
So they're arresting guys. I think that, that explains some
of the guys in this name on this list.
But anyways, same chart for guys, in the 79% routes run
range Draco, I'll kick it to you, who stands out on this
chart for a lot of receivers running to 79% of routes.
So I think we're into the range now where the kind of Breakout
profile wide receivers a true story.
Rookie wide receivers start to get I guess start to be more
prominent and Drake London. They're earning just a huge
amount of at Targets. I'm huge Target.
Share and doing that. When he's not even am.
He's only running, he's in that 80, to 85 percent range.
So you have the Potential for like let's say a 10% bump.
So that's how I get that's the potential for even more targets.
If he becomes more of a full-time player and The the
olave stuff. I don't know.
If you saw all the all the stuff on Twitter that he I think he
had like 300 are yards, I think was 346 something insane.
Like, just a crazy amount of air yards and that's pretty yards
perhaps, but at least 150 of those were real are yards.
Probably 200 per yards mixed in there though and that's still a
for a rookie that is a great. kind of opportunity and Yeah, I
totally agree on the more negative side and so we were, we
were very interested in Curtis Samuel last week and obviously
he paid dividends again. And but I do think it's
interesting hearing that he is in the so that he scored so many
points. But the tiger chair isn't quite
strong enough that it is the amount of points.
It Doesn't quite Justified new man at Point C scoring?
Yeah I think with Samuel. What's interesting is maybe the
target share is okay. But again looking at waited
targets per outrun, I think what Samuel is really hurt by here.
Is it extremely low a DOT? I believe he has a less than
five a DOT I could I could pull up and the numbers on that, but
he's being used as an extreme short area sort of skiing touch
Target. Now, If that you know sell High,
let's think about cell had means.
If you can get someone who's expecting Curtis Samuel to score
20 plus points a game, the rest of the year, sure you can sell
him. Hi.
I do think he has a pretty solid role in this offense and I still
think the market is not going to be buying Curtis Samuel.
He's now going in the 80s. I believe on Underdog best all
Resurrection. Again, I'm still quick Mary
Cooper or Curtis Samuel. I'm taking Amari Cooper.
I think he has high potential to be sort of a Target hog and have
big spike weeks down the stretch, but I think that's
that's close for me. I'm still taking Samuel over
Mooney, I'm taking Samuel over Datsun, /.
IU /, thielen four guys in that rain.
That range. Yeah but I think the point you
made on London is a good one that stood out to me a lot when
looking at this chart I also think that both him and Bateman
or interesting and that they're in the set London's in the 80 to
85 percent of routes are on. Bateman's, just in the 70 to 80%
of routes run. The both of them are commanding
huge Target shares. Huge weighted Target shares on
those routes. So they Maybe even have more
hidden upside. I've seen some concerns about
Bateman because he's not really been a full-time player in the
traditional wide receiver one sense, but given what he's
earning when he is on the field, I'm still pretty excited about
it and I think there's a world where we get to week, you know,
six and they're cutting down the routes for proche, a and
Thailand Wallace and Duvernay a little bit and all these sort of
secondary guys. And Bateman could see an even
Right? He's just playing so well that
can you really project abatement for it to be a 78% Road?
Sure guy when he's playing this well, Yeah I agree.
Maybe a name here. That I want to talk about on the
by low side that I think is the most interesting.
It is not equal to me saying Brown I should have redacted him
from this chart. It's Sterling Shepherd.
I think we should be exciting. Excited about Shepherds similar
to James Robinson. He looks good.
Coming off the the the torn Achilles we've actually seen
wide receivers, do better off the torn Achilles than running
backs in years past we've seen sand.
Ders Emmanuel Sanders come back and still be pretty good from
that black and other names right now, but I know it has a higher
hit rate for wide receivers and running backs and Shepherds been
really good. He's been someone that I know.
I'm out that harmer in at reception.
Perception is really liked. He's shown a targeted earning
potential NFL and he's right now earning the most Targets on the
Giants at, you know, just an 80 to 85 percent, route rate.
So maybe if they feel more comfortable with him, down the
stretch, he could increase That route rate and you know as long
as they don't trust guitarist, Tony these other wide receivers
are charting out there. Richie James, Kennedy Gaul a day
David Stills. It's a bunch of no names and I
think it's odd that it and Kenny go they had something like two
routes or something like that. The last game.
Yeah, he's dust. I think I was doing an underdog
drafted. A, and I think Shepherd and ADP
of 161, yeah, is maybe one of Of my favorite values.
Look like Tony, Tony probably gets more of a role.
Wanda Robinson, will be back at some point, but I think at that
cost given what he's shown so far and, you know, maybe even
getting healthier throughout the year, I think Shepherds a pretty
interesting ad and your deep leagues for four main event and
other sort of season-long leagues, and also a pretty good
value in the best. Well, Resurrection, so I do
think that Sarah and Shepherd, is the type of player where the
efficiency versus Target chair is all.
The efficiency is always going to be a low fishing guy over
like a multiple if you take an average of a couple weeks and
but at a pic of 160 and you're getting like kind of close to a
full-time guy who is, who is commanding the pregnant chair
that he normally goes? It is a great pick and the other
thing about his his 80 to 85 and I guess he is a sot receiver but
he's also coming off at pretty. Recent Achilles injury and so
you could definitely think that as the season goes on and as he
recovers further from that that that would go higher.
Yeah. That's that's my thesis for
Shepherd. I think.
I just think the price is so cheap that, you know, your kind
of lighting picks on fire in the 16 years.
Anyways, if you can get a guy who's been good before and then
I fell and is currently leading his wide receiver room and
opportunity, I think that makes some sense.
I Should touch on the Chiefs guys, you'll see Juju with just
a 40 percent. Ash weighted targets throughout,
run mvs, even lower than that. In the mid. 30s from a weighted
targets per route Ron perspective.
I'll flip over the next chart quickly so we can see the Cole
Harmon who has a much higher way to targets throughout run at
around 65%, but he is earning significantly less snaps than
Both of those guys Sky. More is not earning any snaps.
It's actually Justin Watson as a wide receiver for there.
So, you know, none of these guys have really popped up for big
Fantasy games so far. It's a tough one to read, Juju
and MDS or earning more steps, but earning less targets.
The coal actually looks like the guy when he's on the field that
homes looks to get him the ball and does look pretty explosive
out there. I know you also potentially got
banged up last week so That's something to monitor.
I think that cost I would probably go McColl and then Juju
and then MPS but it's a really tricky room.
I don't want to be spending a lot to to take a, take a bet
here when I get in the coal for so cheap, I think there's some
concern about about Juju, you looked good in week 1, but last
week looked like, sort of the guy on the Steelers, just
getting really low a targets, not doing a lot with them, I
think. The talent is in question there
and this is going for someone who bought Juju a lot.
This offseason but let's let's see what his price is now.
It's still in the mid 50's, I am a little weary of that price.
Given what you do is shown so far, did you have any thoughts
on these? These Casey wide receivers?
Yeah, and so, I know obviously, I think we both listen to Sean
Siegel everybody. Listens to Chauncy go.
A lot and one of the comments, he was making in the runoff, our
journey off season last year Ardis year Was that Mahomes was
getting cheaper, but all the wide receivers, we're getting
more expensive. And one of the comments that
they've kind of the Chiefs, it consistently made is, hey, it's
going to be different guys on different weeks and that that's
just the way that we want to play.
And I think that when you hear that Cummings, I don't think a
lot of people kind of like Incorporated that they took that
the base. Assumption was okay.
Somebody is going to consolidate that work and we just need to
take kind of random shots across these guys and and hope that it
happens. And I think what we're seeing is
that it doesn't look likely to A date and no just because you've
got kind of like you've got Travis Kelce and then you've got
kind of a lot of middling NFL talents at wide receiver and it
was very effective against the Cardinals and not quite as
effective against their the Chargers, which is a really
strong defense. And so the way I would look to
play that situation and Unless I talked to was somebody who
really had a chance to consolidate and it really price,
sensitivity is the name of the game.
And just I guess just to pull up some of these atp's.
And I would be looking to make sure that Put her down, Kelsey
that I'm just making sure that I get prices where and I can
afford them to be a wide receiver by committee.
Yeah. So look at the presses Draco.
We got Juju for just the wide receivers.
We got JuJu at 57 then a huge drop off to MBS at 111.
Then another huge drop off to Hardman at 138 and then Sky more
at 141. So I am totally playing this
through mvs Harmon and Sky. I think It doesn't make sense
that JuJu's price is so much higher than those guys based on
what he's shown so far. And I do think, I do want to
make the point on sky that it's looked quite bad through two
weeks, but the fact that none of these guys is really popping
does is a bit bullish for him. That maybe when he sees the
field he can emerge as a Target owner, he clearly something's
going on and practice where he hasn't shown that but you know
I'm leaving the light on for him and probably take him at 141
just as That that these other guys mvs Juju McColl are not you
know going to be consolidators in the NFL for homes this year.
Yeah, that makes sense. And I think that that men call
heuerman does look interesting, as a guy.
Yeah. And if he's going to be that
cheap and easy play for the Chiefs, he, he does have this
kind of like the fine roll. But I do think that he probably
is capped at this like 60% root chair guy, who is, I guess it's
not going to be terribly efficient and when he's on the
field but those have some pretty solid and touchdown I guess
Avenues. Yeah that would be enough at
that price agreed. Oh I think those are good
breakdown of the Chiefs. Let's move on to this last chart
for the Receivers. These are guys that are more
rotational wide receivers in the 30 to 70% of routes Ron.
What you will notice here is some guys who missed a week gave
Davis, Mike, Pittman their numbers are a bit skewed.
I did not adjust for injury here, I would have had more time
but, you know, besides some of those guys who clearly
disappear, because I missed a game, you see a lot of
rotational wide receivers that Are pretty interesting for me,
Draco. And then I'll let you give your
thoughts clearly the most interesting to me here is the
rookies Berks and Garrett, Wilson.
I think those guys are gonna be really hyped up.
I'll let you you go on about either of those guys, if you
want. But another guy wanted to call
attention to that's maybe going more under.
The radar is Ashton Doolin. He's only running 40 to 50
percent of routes, but isn't seeing an insane Target rate on
those routes? You know, that could be just
small sample variance for sure that can definitely happen and
these types of charts, when you're looking at, you know,
just a few handful of routes for these guys, but there really
isn't a wide receiver to in Indianapolis.
That's really shown much in that FL the italic Pierce there
hasn't shown much, Paris Campbell can't really seem to do
to do anything. So, I do think there's a chance
to do one can emerge. There's the Clearwater super to
and provide Some value. But yeah, those are my key.
Takeaways from this chart, I'll let you hit on Burks Wilson or
anyone else that's jumping out here.
Yeah. I guess the only event Jewel and
is that A big, a big part of and I know this is probably going to
be true all Year. Big part of his Target share has
just been that. They just don't have anybody
else other than am Pittman. And the pivot was also out last
week when do right left Target. So worth noting that to.
Yeah. And and the other thing as well,
is how about I guess have bad. Matt Ryan looks like an awful
and and so it, I think it's pretty strong.
For red doing that. He had three point two yards for
reroute run and and obviously with just this huge huge Target
chair. And but if it does make me
nervous how bad that Ryan looked and how bad the offense looked
when they have to rely on Jewel and to to that degree and a
hundred other other than that. And I do think obviously at
this, this is just a hugely bullish symbol for Garrett
Wilson and trailing burps. Oh yeah, we're those are players
that we think are going to be. At least I think are going to be
under priced in pretty much any format.
And probably need to wait a week or two for DFS on trail and
Burks but and Agreed yeah perks yeah person sorry Brooks balls
are both so go on the 90s as want to give that context on
best ball. Resurrection ATP.
So the market is not caught up to this and saying usage and
insane potential for these guys. But continued trick out and I'm
just, I guess on the resurrection point and these
rookies the resurrection is basically made for a rookie
receivers because the scoring doesn't start until week 6.
Yeah. And and Those are all the the
first five weeks is the weakest point for, for rookie wide
receivers. And so anytime like you kind of
just have to try and get as many rookies as you can on your
rookie wide receivers, as you can on your roster and in that
format. Yep, along those lines.
I think another interesting thing that you'll see on this
chart is the Packers wide receivers they all appear as
Cardio Specialists, meaning low, weight are throughout run and
low fantasy points on a chart of rotational wide receiver.
So that tells you something about this room right now,
they're just kind of throwing shit at the wall with these wide
receivers, they don't know who's good.
None of them are really flashing much, but to your point of this,
this best ball. Resurrection thing is made for
what rookie wide receivers, I am, putting my chips in, on
Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs.
I'm not sure either of them are good, they haven't really shown
a whole lot yet, but they Shown more from a Target or any
perspective that Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb and Allen
Lazard. So yeah, it's gross for the
Packers, if I'm Aaron Rodgers, I'm not sure why I resigned in
Green Bay for a year. If this is the wide receiver
room, I was going to be given but you know someone here I
think has to emerge out of this, you know.
Worst quadrant on the worst chart that were showing four
wide receivers. Somebody has to do better than
this and I am going to bet on On the rookies here, at what I
assume to be pretty low prices. We got jobs at 141 and Christian
Watson at 156. You can put together a pretty
damn cheap Packers stack. And you know hope you get hope.
You get lucky for a week or two in the best ball playoffs with
with some of those guys that makes sense.
And one question that we did get, it's probably a little bit
longer but I think it's an interesting.
So how how do we rank the rookie wide receivers?
And I think we're a bit short for time, so let's just do for
the rest of the season and Yeah. Okay, for me, I think working
wide receivers. I think London is the clear
number one for me. Number two, I think I would go
Burke's. It's closed between him and
Wilson, but I'm just giving Burke's Edge in a weaker wide
receiver room, which with, I think a better quarterback.
I think once Zach Wilson comes back for the Jets, it could
really hurt, Garrett Wilson. So I'm going London, Burke's
then. Garrett Wilson.
And then I think there's and then a Lobby I think is probably
clearly forth and then I think a big tear break after that, I
would then probably go Datsun and then move.
Yeah, I got to think through it more but those are I think that
right there. Yeah.
So one thing that I be interesting in what you changed
out, efficient ATP would be for Drake London and Burkes.
So if you, if you were going to Obviously, we don't want to
complete you rank it and would you take would you take Draco on
then? It had DJ more.
I think I would, I think I'm and Yeah.
I I would and it kind of hurts a little bit but his role as a lot
better, he was taken in the top what was he?
The top 10 pick and then I felt draft, right.
And I think more the situation and Carolina is is a bit
concerning. So I think I think that's very
close to. I'm not 100% confident that but
what about you? What's your that?
I think I think I would And it's, it doesn't, it doesn't
feel comfortable. But I feel like I do think that
trach the efficient ATP and you're probably never gonna have
to drop them there. Efficient ADP probably is for
Trends. Hmm.
And for Burke's probably, probably just a little bit
behind and probably like Early fifth.
Fifth round. Let me see.
I think, yeah, I think that makes sense to me.
And again, I want to rip more of these vessel Resurrection
drafts, so I can really get my head around ADP, but that sounds
fair. And I like, he has to earn a
bigger role and with the amount is going to be Target when he's
on the field. I mean, I think variable is
ultimately a smart coach. You know, you might not do
everything perfectly from what sort of analytics people want,
but I think he's going to get his best player on the field in
short order. Order.
So I think that sounds about right to me, I think an
interesting way to think about, you know, quick tangent.
The best ball, Resurrection ADP. I think it's a little
interesting to think of it from the perspective of if we were
doing drafts for next year. Where would Drake London, go
based on these first two games? And I would say, like third
round if I just. Yeah, I thought I had to Draft
today. And if you're taking that
mindset, why shouldn't he go in the third round for the end of
the season this year? I think people are A bit too
anchored to preseason a DPS on certain guys.
So, I think London based on what is shown so far, you know, he
sort of deserves that third fourth round ATP, for sure.
So I'm hammering him anywhere I can.
Yeah. And, and the point isn't like,
oh yeah, we're Drafting and drag London and afford.
The point is. Okay, this is what the, we're
just trying to put a framework. Where should they be valued,
right? Yep.
Agree. Let's finish with tight end
here. Draco.
You guys should be familiar with this chart from last week, but
it's pretty simple. We're just showing tight end
house-passed route percentage. So to be precise, this is we
take the total number of drawbacks for the team.
We see how on, how many of those drawbacks are the tight ends
running a route. That's a really important
statistic and that gets you, your pastor a percentage pass
block percentage of the same thing on, how many of the team's
drawbacks are these I staying in and pass blocking.
So this chart here shows the high usage tight ends guys, who
are getting more than 60% of routes run.
I think we can cover this quickly Draco.
My main takeaway here and let me zoom in on this chart a little
bit just so we can see it better.
I think there's a couple late-round tight ends that look
really good from a pure usage and also Target earning
standpoint Tyler. Higbee Hayden her First Evan
engram, jajuan Johnson who was mostly undrafted.
Those guys are all learning 80 close to 80% or more of their
team's routes and they're earning solid targets while
during doing. So I think Evan engram is
potentially the most exciting there.
We talked about how weak the wide receiver room was were
talking about Robinson etn but that applies to Ingram as well.
He's a weighted targets for route on a fifty three percent
which would be strong even for a wide receiver.
So, Yeah, that's my big takeaway I think, Evan engram.
And those other guys have mentioned are looking quite
strong and I you know I'm not an expert on T of Astro you
probably better stats than me. But I would probably be playing
guys, like Ingram and hearse and DFS before they have a big game
because I think you can definitely see one coming in the
future. Yeah.
Any thoughts there on those guys, are anybody else in the
sheriff that jumps out to you? And I think he may be one of the
only people remaining who can, who can Get excited about having
Ingram. Yeah, yeah.
I mean, he's he was good, you know, he was good before he was
bad at some point. We thought he was good on the
giant. No, then he dropped the ball
doesn't okay. It is important though that he
is running that high road share. He is earning those targets and
and that that is super important.
And and definitely, when you can get that out, I agree.
Cast. It has to be interesting.
And yeah, I think it's super interesting that America Andrews
at that kind of like he's the highest road share guy with the
highest Target earning ability. And where is he?
I think I think the hosta be super interesting and he oh
yeah, easily the shoo-in to be the tight end, one on the year
and the ATP has not Really reacted.
He still gonna take around 20. Yeah, I was taking so much
Andrews in the offseason and I thought it one point not because
I know sharp people were a little bit down on him.
I was taking him in the late s almost every time and he's still
sitting there. I mean he's like you know, we
talked about pits as a wide receiver, you can play it tight
end, Mark Andrews actually is a wide receiver.
You can play at I doubt he has 0% past clock right here.
Like he's not he's not a tight end and he Don't quite
understand why? Kelsey still goes so far.
Ahead of him Andrews is the younger player.
He's running more routes. These are any more targets.
He's more explosive this point of his career.
I mean, Kelsey's a stud to I'm not hating on Kelsey, but
Andrews should be right up there with Kelsey and drafts totally
with you on that. And then you just have fun stop.
Here is that he's only in line at 10% of that the time.
Yeah, that's that's insane. He's a beast.
I guess we should, we should touch on pits.
I People. Yeah, he isn't thinking I think.
Yeah, so my takeaway from this chart is pits.
His role is fine. I've heard a lot about, oh, he's
being asked to pass block a lot. Okay.
Maybe it's a little bit more than would expect but he's still
looking at this chart, he's running the seventh highest
percentage of routes of any tight end that that role is
totally fine. My book what is not happening
for him. Is learning learning targets.
Only 23% wait. Artists throughout run is quite
low. I'm willing to bet that's more
small sample noise than a big concern for pits.
Certainly like his ATP has fallen a little bit.
I think that's Justified but if he continues to slip I think
he's in the 40s. Now I'm still in on pits you
know a lot of the things that we thought about in for the season
are still true. He's very talented player, high
draft Capital, you know got 1,000 yards as a rookie.
I think the nature of the tight end position In is there's going
to be down weeks. If you look at Kelsey Mark
Andrews box scores from last year you can find to catch 20
yard games scattered in there. It's going to happen but I'm not
like full-on panicking on pets as right.
Seemed to see on Twitter. And yeah yesterday, there's
definitely some victory laps over over the grave of a called
pits and the I mean honestly the target stuff.
If you had a told me instead of starting Year at heat on the air
in two Targets, a game for first two weeks.
It's just, it's super disappointing.
Yeah but you do have to I think you have to make sure that
you're using all the available information.
Like people treat it as if the last two games that we saw is
the only information that we have when not just you have to
bring in all the other factors like how good he was in college,
how good of a tight end year he had last year as a rookie Which
is kind of like a little bit on haired off and the, the comments
if this is probably a bit more of a stretch with the comments
of where he, that Carter Smith got also.
Hey, why isn't he getting more tired?
Since like, I'm trying to win a real game here.
Not fantasy football, the back. I think the backlash to that of
like what do you mean? You're not using it when your
best players when you're trying to win a game is so strong and
the play. Were they lost the game on that
pick to Brian Edwards and triple coverage is so egregious that?
I almost wonder if they're forced to just go to your way of
like okay this is embarrassing why aren't we using called pits?
And then maybe we do see we do see some stronger and stronger
Target rate and but definitely I pick 40.
I think what a talent like that at such a Barren position.
You Really, like it goes seem like such a smash pick.
I agree with that. Let's finish up with the chart
you've all been waiting for rotational tight ends so these
are these guys are earning 30 to 60 percent of their routes Ron
its flying you mentioned that were gray that was my one of my
big takeaways from the chart. I think this is this is more of
a managed League point. I do think there's something to
be said that Travis Kelce he's back up tight.
And should be raw stirred, and I think it's pretty clearly Noah
Gray from a past catching perspective.
He's running more routes than Fortson.
That foursome doesn't even appear on this chair.
I think he's closer to like 10 or 15 percent of routes.
No agrees up at around 40 percent of routes.
No Gray. Also, you know, small sample but
55% waited targets per route, run, that's quite strong.
So if you're in a managed league and you have an extra bench
spot, need some tight end up side on your roster.
Say your trotting out, dog. Austin, Knox and David and joke,
you, or whoever it may be, I think Noah grade makes sense to
the stash in the same way that you would stash, Alexander
Madison, or some odd shape here on at running back.
I think, whoever steps into Travis Kelce, his role would be
a top ten tight end and maybe no gray has some Talent.
So, so that's not know, grating on that.
Yeah. As, you know, I'm not a big
monitor sky and, but one of the, one of the big things of the
main event is too short bench. And how much that really makes
you think about. You really got to think about
who are using a roster spot on. And you think that at the main
event kind of with the with that bit the the shorter bench, do
you think he's still kind of a stash or do you think he's more
of a like, okay, some of these redraft leaks that would do on
sleeper or something like that and they've got it.
Yeah. Is that where he's more?
Interesting. Yeah, I think I'm going to give
wishy-washy answer but I think it depends it depends where you
need upside on your roster. If you're a 0r B team and have
Darren Waller, as you're starting tight end, like we do,
I'm going to be throwing my flyers at Chris Evans.
You know, Ronald yelled like these third, string running
backs that may have some potential value because I know
we need upside the running back position.
I'm throwing my darts, at those type of guys, if I have a roster
where I punted tight end and I'm, you know, maybe I drafted
gets sticky. Herb Smith.
Some guys that may be disappointed so far.
I do think in that scenario where maybe the rest of your
roster looks quite strong and you say, hey what really takes
us roster over the top is an upside swing at tight end.
I think guys like Noah gray, Isaiah likely is definitely
another one. I would 100% throw in that
category. You can say the same thing that
I said about gray about likely, except he's even earning more
routes and hasn't even more insane Target share, which is on
the field. So, those are two guys, Isaiah
likely and Noah Gray. That in that PC Main Event, if I
need upside at tight end, I am stashing them.
You know, if I feel good about running back and other
positions, does that make sense? Yeah.
No.
That doesn't make sense for sure.
Yeah. And one question that we got,
and I see Eric Hove agrees with us about the about cockpits.
And I've done a bunch of code drops with a very sharp guy.
And one question, he had a Buddhist and this your mic is
sticky. Answers like oh, is it usable?
I think the problem for his sake and mikasuki on the Dolphins is
that not only is he not getting the root share that we want.
So he's there below is 60% route share but in the wide receiver
and in the in the wide receiver chart, we saw that waddle on
Tyree kill, our are earning such a dominant like such a huge each
Target shares that rotational sort of tight ends and it just
so the tight end. And the offense has to has to be
100% rude guy almost and then even then it's like, it's 10
because those guys are taking them so much Target chair.
Yeah, totally agree on that point because sticky, I think it
needs, I don't know, a Smythe injury or something to to be
usable because right now, he's just, he's splitting that role
and he'll definitely, I mean if your potting tie down there are
worse places, we know you can be involved in the Red Zone, he has
the speed to, you know, take her out, down, the seam, and the
Dolphins offense. Look it's looks explosive.
So you know you're asking me Mike is sticky or Brevin?
Jordan or mikasuki or Logan Thomas, I'll go get sticky, but
He's, you know, pretty firmly in the tight end to discussion.
I think it right. Cool.
Well, I think that once you spent ten minutes talking about
Isaiah, likely, and Noah gray, it's a good good time to wrap up
the stream, but that was a ton of fun guys.
I'm glad you got to do the show live, I believe Trickle and I
will be trying to do this every Tuesday night at around 7 p.m.
and be live for the ship chasing VIP members.
So, if you're not involved there, you can join the ship kit
chasing Or and be able to access these streams live.
Yeah the only other thing I'll plug if you're interested in
looking at these charts in more detail one I will post them in
the ship chasing Discord in PDF form.
So you can take a look at the charts and maybe get some
insights from guys. We didn't talk about and you can
also follow me at Sherman underscore ffb on Twitter where
I will be posting a weekly thread with these charts and my
key takeaways A trick of anything you want to plug before
we get out of here. Hey yeah.
Obviously yeah. Subscribe to a roto virus and
that's where you get a lot of shit.
A lot of articles that from Sean Siegel and I'm going to I'm
writing a column on the the Battle Royale every week.
I think that's a super fun format, that more and more
people are getting into. What's really cool about it is
that it's like DFS but no. We're near the time commitment.
You do you know how to skip brunch on a Sunday morning?
If you if you don't want to, you can draft your team during the
week with the information that you get at, you can from your
research and and it's a lot of fun to sweat.
But I yeah, I've been doing a lot of research are so writing
about the kind of strategy on and, and how to take advantage
of different. A strategic elements there and
I'll probably Uh doing some podcast soon with column Kelly
on rotavirus and put those are, those are my plugs nice.
Yeah, definitely. Check out those battle royales
more. It sounds kind of fun.
But anyways, that was a lot of fun, guys.
We'll see you back here next week.