Tonight on Ship Chasing, we have Fantasy lives.
Chris Allen joining us to talk about whether does wind matter?
Can you bake it into your best ball drafting processes?
We're gonna find out tonight and then naturally, we are gonna.
Hop in a best ball mania draft. Let's do it.
Pat Fryer homo this. Is why This is why I'm hot.
Anita hand job. Fix your side, Jamar.
And also play chase. You can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finally at this point.
You're right, Chris. Allen, welcome to the show.
We got Kerrain back from vacation.
We got Gretch Rock and his Chasing Kerrain shirt and None
Other than Fantasy Life's Chris Allen joining us.
How you doing tonight, Chris? I'm doing well man, like we were
talking before we got recording. Just been enjoying the summer,
trying to touch grass as often as I possibly can, running
around with these kids. So in between getting some
articles out, doing some shows, I was actually doing a show.
I did a show yesterday with Marcus Grant, got a show like a
queued up with Ian Hardits tomorrow.
So in between like content, day job, kids, I mean it's just been
a hectic summer for sure. But now I'm, I'm, I'm excited to
like join you guys. I've been fans of like all you
guys for years. So being on the show and
guesting with you guys, man, it's a it's a huge thing for me.
So no, I appreciate it. And you mentioned being busy
drafting season. You know, Underdog is now
officially trying to tear us apart by offering both a Yeah
Puppy contest and a Fast Puppy contest.
I mean, which side of this great divide do you find yourself on?
Uh, fast. For me it has been like nothing
but fast. I I'm, I definitely drinking
that. Ian Hart is kool-aid saying, you
know like the slow is unamerican.
Uh. But I've just.
I preferred that because. I don't know if it's all
anecdotal, right? It's knowing that, you know,
there's always a decent chance that you're going to get one or
two picks that are going to be completely off a DP.
When you do it that way, folks like Q and stuff up and then
they wind up missing the clock and all that jazz.
But for the most part, it's just easier for me to cram all of my
stuff into like 45 minutes and like build a team and figure out
what strategy I got and go from there.
Yeah, I. Mean I did.
Get no 50 puppies done, Chris. I don't see it happening for me.
I think I'm team slow on this puppy thing.
Fair enough. Yeah, fair enough.
I did not know about these puppies cuz I don't.
I don't check the underdog lobby a ton.
I fly out tomorrow to the last of my like vacation month that
I've had since my kids got out of school out of state.
I'm gonna get to do fat. I'm going to a bachelor party.
I'm gonna be doing fast puppies drunk.
I'm gonna be doing slow. I'm gonna or get in so many
fucking slow puppies is gonna come.
You guys just made my fucking deck.
Gretch is gonna great. He like going out for a nightcaf
and Gretch be like, yeah a little tired might just retire
for the evening and then he's like.
Under his covers, tabling 5 puppies.
Oh fuck yeah. Here's a question for you guys
and the chat because I do know a lot of people are completus with
these contests like they want to Max enter it.
Obviously Max entering the slow is much more doable.
If you want to do it you can Max enter it would if you had 150
bolts. Do you think some people might
do like 7575? I'm thinking of like the OCD
completus type because doing all three.
I didn't do any poodles for this reason.
I was like, I can't Max it. I don't have time.
I'm not gonna put. I'm not gonna do any poodles.
OK, I didn't do any poodles either.
Chris, how many do you, how many fast puppies do you think you're
going to get? To if I could, realistically, I
could probably do 20. Yeah, 20 seems like a normal,
well adjusted amount. I have a feeling there's some
people in the chat here who might not be as well adjusted.
I'm gonna do 20 tomorrow. What are you talking?
About man, how do you think you're going to Max?
This slows when you're across state lines.
That's an interesting question. Cuz I got a lot of work to do
and when I came back from the last trip, I didn't get a lot
done right after that, cuz I was just like excited to be doing
all these drafts at once, even though I didn't even have that
many. But Pat and I, we were talking
about the three of us in our chat, and Pat and I were kind of
similar on that regard to our you're like.
Pete's saying you're smart about it.
You set some time throughout your day to check in and make
all your picks. Pat and I were like, I mean,
we're just kind of. Checking all of our drafts,
Billy nilly. Yeah, a little bit.
Or like, Yeah, like opening. I'm opening the app too
frequently when I'm doing these drafts every couple hours.
Yeah, I'll fire off. I was doing a lot of Willy nilly
picks, but like treating these slows like fast, but.
Draft them, draft them like a $10 dynasty league, as as we
famously said. Yeah, I see.
But I I just, I can't get in that many drafts at once and
then also get work done. That's the problem.
Yeah. Yeah, I I found that I almost
had to do it Willy nilly when I had 150 because in addition to
doing 150 slows, I did 120 of them or so at once, where I
literally just like in the afternoon.
One day just fired in 120, so they were all like at the same
point in the draft as well. You know, the most of them
anyway. So I almost had to just kind of
like, let them trickle in because there were a couple
times when I was like, I just want to go to bed, man.
Drafting a lot of the same teams if you ripped them off, like all
at the same time. Cuz I feel like I don't even
know. You think I reviewed these teams
and so I don't know. I did that when I did all my my
first group in a bunch. I noticed that for sure, Chris.
Yeah, like, I just feel like if you're just staring at the same
names, looking at like, have the same rankings up, and like all
that jazz, you just find yourself just running into that
same. Squad.
I definitely do that in fast drafts when I'm multitabling,
especially if I'm doing 2, I'll just be like, I might as well
grab Richardson on this team, too.
Right back to stacking the cults.
It's easy, yeah. So yeah, I I definitely do that
in fast drafts. Yeah, that makes that makes 1.
Of the reasons I don't like multi tabling that much, I think
I think I lose more EV multi tabling than even in two even if
I had just do the double monitor because I kind of I just like
can't concentrate on building the correlated teams that I like
to build. It's not that I'm like the
structurally I think I'm probably fine, but I'm just like
I kind of forget who I took and what I'm trying to do.
Yeah, I just pulled up my exposures from those 35 drafts
that I did that. It's all I've done so far.
And I my top three guys were all over 40%, which is not something
I was trying to do. But that's like to your point,
Chris, I think I got CLV on all of them.
Godwin, Taekwon, Thornton, Jalen Warren.
These were all early. I entered these June 2nd, June
3rd. I think all those guys have
risen since then. I know Godwin has and I know
Thornton has. He is.
Yeah. All right.
Good. Right before I get in some
draft, Godwin for me. Yeah.
Well, yeah, Thornton, I think would have.
Plummeted again. If the Patriots had signed
Hopkins, whether that's right or wrong could be up for debate,
but I definitely think he would have dropped.
It'll be interesting to see. Now the betting markets have
shifted to the Titans and saw Davis Maddock got a snipe by
Dave Kluge on the same tweet, throwing up all the other guy
wide receivers who finished their career with the Titans
anyways. Be better, Davis the Do you guys
think that? Like trailing Burks?
Like if that does happen? How do you guys think that's
gonna impact stuff from an ADP standpoint?
They all fall like almost all that has to affect Burks.
Any love for Chiggy, I would think that'd have to kill him
too. So outside of.
People love Chigg, though. Yes, one little low key thing I
think that would mean is that it's a much more likely Ryan
Tannehill season. Which is I think actually
probably better for. Trade with Burks.
Right, like if they go get DeAndre Hopkins.
I don't think Hopkins is signing to put will let like, just like
a rebuilding. Season.
That would be insane for Hopkins to sign up for that.
Yeah, yeah. I mean, there was a thing about
Malik Willis. Rotor World blurbed.
Malik Willis might not make the team, but then in that blurb,
they talked about how Willis was probably ahead of Levis.
I saw that. Wow.
So like that to me is the headline.
If Willis is ahead of look, I mean they know one, we they
don't like Willis, we know that. And two Willis is not very good.
So if Levis is behind him, that's really good for
Tannehill. Can you just imagine, though,
the situation if they wind up having to start Willis at some
point? DeAndre Hopkins just on the
sideline, just pissed off Rabel, just like chain smoking like in
between calves and all that. Like you.
It's the J Color meme, but real. Yeah, yeah.
It would be. I would be fascinated to like,
sit down with the Andre Hopkins and be like, all right, what did
the Bills offer you? What did the Chiefs offer you?
What did the Titans? Let's look at that difference
and then let's like, play out two scenarios deep into the
plane into January live for Super Bowl or like an extra
million in the bank. I don't know, it's like are.
You trying to become a player consultant?
Well and. Circling back to when he was
before he was released, when he was being interviewed at a lot
of the events. What was it like, the combine
and stuff? And they were who, I can't
remember who interviewed him, but they were like.
Tell us you know some like you know give us some indication
what do you think? And he like he couldn't talk
about the team because it's tampering and all this.
But it's like would you like to play for the bills And he's kind
of just like smirking. Like yes, I would like very
clearly like saying which teams he prefers And then he hasn't
signed with any of those teams And the teams that he's liking
are the ones that seemed they weren't even probably discussed
on this video that I'm referencing but it seemed like
he really wanted to go play for a contender like he had video.
And so I I to your point Pete, I'm really curious what those
teams have been able to offer. The Bills?
The Chiefs? I mean, is it even close?
It must be not even close because he seemed to really want
to actually play for a winning team.
Yeah, yeah, that will be interesting to see it play out.
We got people in the chat are fired up for weather talk
tonight. The weather stuff is all over
the map this year. I was talking about it with
Brian on lulls and people were pushing back on it.
And then all of a sudden then today Pat and I are drafting
Cleveland, NY jet stacks and everyone's like, aren't you
worried about the weather? So it seems like.
One is all over the map with how they are thinking about weather
as it pertains to fantasy. This year.
Chris, why don't you? I?
Just like the weather itself. Yes, we just don't know.
We just don't know, Chris, why don't you set the stage for us
because I know you've been. Working on weather related stuff
for fantasy for a long time. I know you have always been a
voice of reason on DFS mornings when the there's 17 mile per
hour wind gusts and everyone's ready to full fade a game here.
So talk to us, how did you get started in the in the weather
business And then we can get to what you've been working on
lately. Not really, just because I'm an
engineer by day and I do data analysis on a fairly regular
basis that now I'm like more program management.
But I was in a lab for most of my time until the last few
years. So being able to play with data
but also applying it to fantasy football.
And then on top of that when I first got into the game it was
trying to find like what could my niche area be?
Right, cuz you know, JJ got the late round thing, Reeves got the
Konami thing. I was talking with Harman at the
time. This around like 20.
I got the win $2,000,000 thing. I mean, that's pretty good niche
to have. I mean that's also also awesome.
I mean that's like that's Pat's like niche thing too.
But it's like I wanted to find out what could I do that would
be different than what everybody else is currently doing.
I mean versus draft strategy and all that and weather just seemed
to be one of those things that a lot of folks have.
You know, random thoughts about it.
We have our own biases when it comes to wind, rain, snow and
all that because of all the extreme games that we've watched
over how many years, decades of watching ball.
So trying to challenge those, maybe do like a little bit of
myth busting and say, yeah, I mean, short passing isn't really
that big of a deal. We should really look at how
quarterbacks actually play the game of football versus just
saying short passes is going to be bad for fantasy.
All that stuff. To say that that's what kind of
put me into this spot and I found it really, it's also like,
honestly kind of fascinating in my mind.
Yeah, and there's now such. I mean, I feel like if you would
have made this your niche, what five years ago, everyone would
be like, what dude? And like now there is
legitimately a market. There always has been for like
DFS Sundays. I think people really care about
that stuff. And we've you've seen guys like,
you know Kevin Roth over at Roto Grinders or people check in on
his weather reports. But now with best ball in the
way that these prizes are structured, that now you release
a contest like weekly winners where you're looking at
optimizing for specific. Pockets, specific weeks and like
this weather stuff has a legit impact on Vegas totals.
You can go look at how totals drop throughout the year as
weather gets colder and you've done a lot of cool stuff about
wind, but like, where are you at just in general?
Does wind matter? Does weather matter?
Is this something people should be focusing on when they are
drafting? Not when they're drafting.
It's more on a week to week basis.
So something like this weekly winters thing, I think would be
really tuned for something like that, where it's just a
microcosm of not just the players but also the matchups,
the locations. Because all that stuff does
matter when you're factoring in, especially the wind itself.
But also snow before a number of stadiums that have like heated
pipes under the field, so snow impact might not be as much.
So I've studied, like stadium design.
I'm probably on like a fucking FBI list or something like that,
looking into which which stadium is how tall and like what you.
Know how many people it. Can fit and all of that.
So it's got, it's got you can go down.
If the FBI looked into you, they would not be convinced by the
truth. Yeah, they'd be like, no, it's a
fancy football, I swear. Like, I'm not trying to do
anything like, terrible like that.
Yeah. Like, no, Why the hell would you
do like no. You're going to jail, buddy.
Like, just get. Just getting.
Back at the Can you imagine trying?
I mean, it's hard enough to explain that to people who,
like, know what you do in your personal life.
Yeah, like trying to explain that to me, man, That's.
Yeah, that just that would be an abject disaster.
But like actually like back to the DFS part of things.
So this I had, I haven't told this story like on air before,
but so I was working behind the scenes at ETR like last season.
I was helping out with their research team, so each week.
Whenever some weather stuff would happen, I would either
like in the slack, I would message, you know, like Leonie
Lev and like all of them be like, hey, you know, I I think
it's going to be this. I don't think it's just going to
be much bigger, not going to be a big of a deal, all of that.
Remember that I think week 12, week 13, Chicago's playing
against The Jets. It was projected to be an
absolute downpour before the game.
And from a DFS standpoint, if the big debate for that week it
was going to be, should you roster Treylon Burks or Garrett
Wilson. Because from a price standpoint
it was going to, they were relatively the same target share
was going to be relatively the same.
But if you weigh those two situations and just try and
break ties in favor of weather trail on burst was was the call.
And of course I'm sitting there talking in the slack.
I'm telling Leonie, I'm telling. I'm telling lab, I was like,
yeah, guys, like just looking at the forecast, it's going to be
an absolute downpour. You guys remember that San
Francisco game for the San Francisco Indianapolis game from
a season ago, Even like when San Francisco played Washington back
in 2020, Week seven, week 9, all that stuff.
And we saw the totals dropping and everything.
So most of them made the switch. And of course in the first
quarter, Garrett Wilson catches what like an 8 yard pass turns
into a 50 yard touchdown. They got like 2 touchdowns on us
in the first half. I'm, I'm sweating the whole
time. I'm waiting for Silva to call me
up. I'm waiting for Silva to call me
up like, yo, Chris. What happened man?
What happened, bro? That's what meteorologist.
Yeah, I thought you knew what you were talking about.
I was. That's what I was waiting for.
I was like, I can sit there. It's like that.
It's like the Denny Carter, like you know, the screaming, the
process. Like me, like that's.
That's what I was doing. Just like the.
Whole. And Silva stuffed you in a
locker. The process?
Yeah, yeah. Right.
Bad. That is, that is.
I mean that that's tout life, right?
You know it is. Then you get to explain
probabilities to everyone, multiple people.
Remembering this people here wants you to define what a
monsoon are. You said people in the fantasy
space describing any heavy rain as a monsoon has been driving me
crazy for you. Do we have do we have an
official fantasy meteorology definition of monsoon?
That that's a hell of a question right there.
Because yeah, I do want to set that straight because.
People do say that like they say like torrential downpour and
monsoon and and all of that stuff.
When 90, I would say 90% of the time it.
I think I've recorded three games total where it actually
has turned into a situation where password over expectation,
total plays run. All the stuff for Fantasy has
actually been affected and that Jets game was affected.
It just didn't happen until the second-half but.
I use Weather Underground is a site that I use because they
actually track precipitation rate in inches per hour and
typically light to normal rain is between .01 and .03 inches
per hour. That's about like you don't even
see it if you're watching it on the normal TV broadcast.
Once you get past that into .03 to .06 inches per hour, that's
the stuff you can start to see. You see it like on the players
helmets. You can kind of see it just from
the normal view, like the camera angle, like on the field.
That's what you can typically see.
But normally that doesn't affect the game once you get into .1,
so .1 inches per hour, that's the.
Chicago verse San Francisco. Yeah, Chicago verse San
Francisco game from week one of last year.
That's what they played in week one, right?
Trey, Lance. Yep, Yeah, the Trey Lance we do
call Avadsu. He played it Avadsu.
That one was that one was legitimately, legitimately a
monsoon. The San Francisco, Washington
game from 2020. Like I said, week seven, week
9:00. Somewhere in there, legitimately
like a month I. Remember that.
Game. Yeah.
And also the San Francisco versus.
The San Francisco teams seem to happen them a lot versus.
The Annapolis from 2021, I think that was week 7 sometime in
October. Like those games where you can
the your visibility to the field is affected and you can see
teams actually calling more run plays.
Password over expectation is affected.
That's a monsoon. That's what we should actually
care about for fantasy purposes. The rest of the stuff.
When people start calling for you, has a torrential downpour
and all that. Unless they're actually looking
at the forecast and looking at what the precipitation rate is
going to be for that matchup, which is something that I do
because I have scripts that pull all that stuff on a daily basis,
especially leading up to game day.
That's I took like once I see folks like tweeting about that,
it's like, yeah, that that's probably not happening because
it's just, it's just a rare event, honestly, yeah.
What about? So one of the things I think
super cool about the wind research you've been doing and
I'll pull it up here, you've been looking specifically at
Qb's and how they perform, you know in various like wind
scenarios, which ones are unaffected, which ones are
impacted by the wind. I was cracking up seeing Zach
will sit being mostly impacted by the wind that just seems,
yeah, that was. But yeah, that that one really
felt well. Also see, you can see Patrick
Mahomes on that very same table, but I think.
This the so that table honestly and breaking it down by each
particular quarterback, that's what we really should be doing
for this type of analysis because if you look at that
table, you see Zach Wilson, Patch Mahomes, Taylor Heineke,
the hell those guys drew Lock. Like why?
Why do they belong on the same list?
The numbers bear it out that if you compare them to their
baseline password over expectations.
So baseline being if there was no wind.
If they happen to be playing in a Dome, but then compare that to
the times when they were playing in a Dome, these guys passing
over expectation drop total plays are dropping.
Their completion percentage over expected for the most part is
falling. Except for, of course, as you
see on the table, not Mahomes. But when you see a number of
these quarterbacks significantly affected by weather, you can see
you can pull out profiles of a lot of them.
They're mostly pocket passers. They're dudes that they're not
running. They have no, they no scrambling
or rushing component to their game.
So of course they're going to be affected by fantasy if they're
running fewer plays, if their accuracy is dropping and their
pass rate is dropping. So all that analysis that when
it comes to the weather, a lot of it comes out in the wash of
saying that if we were to just analyze the quarterback and say
that, well, we figured Kirk Cousins isn't going to be much
for rusher anyway. So if they're not passing much,
then of course, yeah, he's probably going to have a bad
game. But for a guy like Patrick
Mahomes, the reason for their password or expectation?
Dropping in the three or four games that I that I charted for
him, playing in games that were 20 miles an hour or more,
they're all blowouts. 3 or the four were blowouts.
Like there was like 48 to three against Oakland two years ago,
38 to 9 against Oakland the year beforehand.
That's why it wasn't because the wind so back.
They're beating the shit out of the Chiefs.
So, so a lot of it does. Like we walk into these
situations thinking that it's going to be the weather, it's
going to be the weather, It's always going to be, you know,
the the reason why we wind up losing is because the wind is
going to be so high when a lot of it just becomes matchup
analysis, things that we should have been doing in the 1st
place. So if we apply more of that
before we say, Oh yeah, there's a 20 mile per hour wind and
start freaking out, then I think a lot of our.
I guess consternation, anxiety about weather, a lot of that
would just kind of go away. That's a great point, cuz
there's a lot of stuff that winds up being like, we find one
thing to pin stuff on, right? And I think one of the bigger
points that you're making is there's so many things that can
explain any of the results that we see.
But often it's like we we limit it down to one, you know,
specific trade or a couple specific trades.
I just wanted you threw it in there.
But that's so hilarious that Patrick Mahomes in windy games
somehow has a higher A5 percentage point, higher
completion percentage of over expecting expected.
I mean, he's just ridiculous. Yeah, that's too good.
Yeah, it's just he's just too good and he's, but also you can
see his average fancy points, he's still acting like a QB one.
But that's it's still, it's still happening before him.
And the same thing was for a lot of the quarterbacks that
appeared unaffected, Like Josh Allen was on the table just
right above that, still, like, rocking like a 2425 fantasy
points per game average. That's even with the what.
Happened to Andy Dalton here. Ah, he was Dude One. .6.
Did it was? What he What are you doing,
Andy? It was.
It was a tough scene, tough scene, tough scene for Andy.
But another thing like what you're talking about a lot is
making me think of we talk about psychological biases and the
ways that we can exploit those things.
The ways that the market over plays, certain things.
We see it in a ton of ways. I mean, one of the guys that I'm
starting to see a ton of hype around is Cow Pitts, and I'm
sure everyone watching this show knows we were talking about him
a lot last year. We're excited about him again
this year. He's starting to generate a
little buzz. So the whole cow pitch Drake
London think people keep talking about.
Well I mean why would why would London go ahead of pits It kind
of have the same Atlanta past volume issues.
Pits if he hits though gives you tight end production.
Also he was out targeting London when they're on the field
together it makes no sense. The only reason he's going
behind him is because pits was universally called the biggest
Boston fancy football last year. It's just like a group think
people don't want to get burned by cow pits again.
We do this in so many ways. I don't know.
I got off on the cops change. I don't know where I was going
with him. But not but to you.
Oh. I was gonna real quick.
I was gonna say the monsoon last year being week one.
We do this with the early season stuff everyone's paying
attention week one and then all. Did it feel like all season last
year everyone was was kind of giving you that like well, I
mean but it really was bad in week one.
When the Bears in the 9th, it's like that one thing sticks in
their head and you're pointing out is very rare event but last
year was. Even rarer that it happened in
week one and then it kind of, you know, defined what people
expected every week. Oh, this is gonna be like
Chicago and San Francisco from Week 1?
Because it that just sticks in the mind, yeah.
I wanna hit. Go.
Ahead. No, no, I was gonna hit a couple
other questions from the chat. What were you gonna say?
I was gonna say to your point then about the like the the bias
thing, Pete, can you pull the article up real quick and like
scroll up? It's the very first chart, it's
the older one. Because I've seen this one
quoted. I mean it's it's, I mean it's
from Brian Burke who's like the goat of like data analytics.
So like this is. So this is the chart that comes
from Brian Burke's original study from 2012 showing adjusted
yards per attempt by wind speed. And so I've seen that I've seen
this chart quoted tweeted like pasted into tweet threads like
over and over and over again and but like you look at this chart
you see that line you see how quickly it starts to fall off as
it as you get from. You know, 5 to 9 mph like on
down you see that slope and so that bias almost immediately
hits you that oh, if I get past 20 miles an hour, I mean they're
just, they're just doing dump off passes.
That's it. You see that and that's what you
think. But now if you Scroll down a
little bit more because this is just averages a little bit more
past that because I recreated the same thing and get the same,
this is the problem that you run into.
It's a sampling issue. You've only got and once you get
past 20 miles an hour. I'm looking at it.
There are 24 games that have been played in the last five
years that have had wind speeds greater than 20 miles an hour,
24 games, 24. Yeah, that's 48 quarterbacks.
And actually, of those 48 quarterbacks, I want to say
seven or eight of them were duplicates.
So really, actually even more than that, because I think the
total list of unique quarterbacks comes down to about
28 quarterbacks SO28 quarterbacks.
Have played in at least one. Were they good?
Five years. Like whether they're good or
not, is it gonna be a big factor here?
Yeah, but that's where you get the patch of rahomes down there.
On a few of them you get the Andy Dalton really like shitty
game. You get the Kirk Cousins a few
of those games. So it's like if you're sampling
ish, like if you're sampling becomes like so little that
that's probably the part that's part of the problem there. 24
games works out to exactly a week and 1/2 of an NFL season.
Yeah. And we know that a week and 1/2
of an NFL season is very predictive of the rest of the
year. Exactly.
But we already have looking by seeing and retweeting that same
chart, which there's nothing wrong with the chart bright
like. As you can see, Burke had it in
2012. I just recreated it for data
from the last five years. The behavior is correct if you
do it by looking at averages, but then when you look at the
sampling size, like for that average once you get above 20
miles an hour. It's like we cannot when we
should not just pull just conclusions just based off of
that trend. That's why we should be looking
at Pastor of expectation, CPOE total plays run.
I mean all the other fantasy relevant metrics to say that
this is when, like when from a MPH standpoint, that fantasy
stuff is actually getting impacted.
And besides, shorter passes isn't a bad thing, right?
Patrick Mahomes like his A dot has dropped like 2 yards since
like 2019. Joe Burrow had to.
Joe Burrow had to like their explosive pass rate that stopped
after the 2021 season, and they found another way to be more
successful in the intermediate parts of the field.
So short passes isn't a bad thing.
I mean, we know all of these players can work in yards after
the catch. So it's like, why do why do we
assume that because quarterbacks are are throwing shorter passes
that they're just going to suck for fantasy?
That's not true. And one of the things with the
with the sampling issue is that. I feel like actually this is
something I might be taking from you through Leone, cuz I
remember talking to him, we talked about our chat that NEPAD
and Pete and we only have, but I feel like it came up in that and
he was probably quoting you on it.
But basically it's not that the, you know, the average goes down,
jump up the average, but we like averages can play tricks on us.
It's not that we should expect a reduction of five or 10%, it's
more like. 80% of the time there's no reduction. 20% of the
time is catastrophic and it's like, do you want right, Is that
right? Yeah, yeah, that's it.
And trying to figure out which scenario falls into the 80%
versus the 20% that's that's that's almost, that's 50% of the
battle. That's half the battle.
I mean that's the, that's the greatest, like challenge for us
right now. And that's why whenever somebody
comes to me and says, hey, what do you think about this game?
I go all the way back to, well, who are the quarterbacks?
What is the what? How do they normally play?
And then now let's let's put on that layer of where are they
playing at? How much like, how higher or how
hard the wind's going to be blowing or how much
precipitation there's going to be.
I'll just start with the quarterbacks and then layer on
the weather analysis from there. Because if you don't start from,
how would they normally play in just a get?
Like how would they play in the Dome?
If you can't answer that question, you're not starting
from there before you layer in the weather, then all you're
gonna be doing is like almost essentially double counting your
negative biases towards bad weather.
But if you don't hear that, one of the quarterbacks is Andy
Dahl. Don't do that.
Yeah, get him off it. Get him off your roster.
Casey was asking in here about, like, Deshawn's numbers being so
wild. Anecdotally, we all remember
like some of these Cleveland win games.
I'm just gonna try to push this back.
I know you said a lot of this win stuff is a little bit more
specific for weekly stuff in DFS, but for best ball drafting?
And looking at the schedule, obviously as we get into the
winter, you know games get colder totals drop.
Can you suss out anything relative to best ball mania, any
edges there? You're going to hear a lot about
El Nino this year. Do you have thoughts on it being
on El Nino as it pertains like how can we make this a slightly
actionable for our for our drafting?
Yeah, the highlight of my my last couple of weeks has been
sitting. At this desk at 10:00 o'clock at
night, looking up what the hell in El Nino is.
And trying to figure out. Because of that damn Davis Matic
tweet and figure out, like, what is?
That what is that always goes? Back Davis Matic Tweet has
started a lot of things. That's.
Yeah, like what is that? Like, what is it like?
Why does it matter? And honestly, like after looking
at it, so if I'm reading this correctly or like the way that I
read it, like from the Noa's website and El Nino is supposed
to be something that affects like tides and wind pressures
and all that, but it's more towards the equator.
So while that might impact like the coastal regions, it'd be
more towards the South. So if there are games in like
Florida, let's say maybe Texas, like somewhere like close that's
closer to the equator, that makes some sense.
But overall, I wouldn't think like out of the New England
Buffalo game that's supposed to happen in in week 17, I'm not
thinking that one should be affected because at least from
what I'm reading, El Nino is more towards the more towards
the. South and I I had heard that it.
Potentially could mean a more mild winter in terms of the
temperatures, is that? Yeah, that's what I'll that's
OK. But it's the.
But maybe a Nino year is a good. Thing maybe we.
Yeah. So I think it's like the La
Nina, which typically comes afterwards.
That's when you get like the worst stuff.
OK. And when is that?
I need you now. It sounds like we're talking
about when's the fleet of the Spunks?
In a couple years. Yeah, a couple years.
OK, yeah, I think it works. Yeah.
Season or something like that afterwards, yeah.
Let me let me frame a question this way because I think like
there's sort of there's sort of this logical thing, you know
when people are thinking through what games to target.
You look at the Vikings and the Packers in a Dome, you get, you
know, it's kind of easy to dream on that game being fun, you
know, and and you go, so you know it's in a Dome, then you go
Jets, Browns. Like I get why people are a
little bit nervous about stacking up.
Jets, Browns especially because like from a matchup perspective,
it's like you know am. Rogers always plays slow.
The Browns like to run the ball, so you know it could be bad.
But it's also happening on December 31st, so it's tough to
get two in the weeds. If I told you right now The Jets
and the Browns are playing in 20 degrees Fahrenheit with a 13
mile an hour wind, would that affect anything for you?
No, not at all. 20 degrees. So from a temperature
perspective there, from the studies that I've done in the
past, I need to update it for for Fantasy Life.
But the stuff that I was doing beforehand, you don't see a
dropoff in password over expectation.
Total plays run any of those fantasy metrics until you get
into the single digits. So think about that with that
Minnesota Seattle game that was played in like single digits,
that playoff game from however many years ago and what Blair
Walsh like Shank the Kick. Missed that kick from like 25
yards, yeah. So that one.
So that was a 10. Nine final or something?
Like that. Yeah, it was something wild,
like those types of games, but you don't see a drop off in
fantasy related metrics until you get into the single digits.
And like I mentioned before, in 13 mph that's not even something
to really factor in the only place that I've seen.
Anything less than 15 mph play, a factor in any part of football
has been at Gillette Stadium because the North End of
Gillette Stadium has that like angled like open section, like
towards the end on the Northside.
And kicks have been messed up because you can get gusts that
will come in like back through that section, almost like.
Mack Jones is 80 piece so well and.
Almost like funnels, like air pressure and like right there,
and it's messed with kicks before on games that you
typically wouldn't expect to have like much of an issue.
But 13 miles an hour? 20 degrees Fahrenheit?
No, ain't no problems there. OK, so I mean when you're if
you're like fading any of these games, cuz the weather like
you're betting on it sounds like a pretty kind of uncommonly bad
weather situation which you have no real reason to expect other
than sometimes the weather's bad.
I mean I guess like would would it make sense to you to
prioritize even the Dome games? To it just a slight tick up,
because at least there we know there's no chance of severe
weather. I don't see a problem with that,
but from at least a couple of the games that you'd mentioned,
so like Jets, Browns. So while you mentioned this goes
back to the recommendation I was having earlier about analyzing
the teams and what they can potentially do.
It's like. Do we expect them to have like
the same, like passer over expectation with the weapons
that they added this year? Could they tick up a bit more
and be a bit more past friendly? And the same thing with The
Jets. I mean, given Vegas totals and
all that, their average weekly implied totals are supposed to
be up this year. So we should expect a bit more
might be running slower because it's Aaron Rodgers to your
point, Absolutely. But could we have two teams
interacting with each other that are?
At the, let's say at best average in password over
expectation versus being both bottom 10 like they were last
year. So could you get a situation
where this is a team that's the two teams that are passing back
and forth throughout the game? It's entirely possible.
So where even if the wind does become or let's say just the
weather in general, because it's gonna be a December game even if
the weather does become an issue.
You might be looking at two teams that are going to be more
past friendly, Not past first or past heavy, just more past
friendly compared to what they weren't.
Right. And if you get there to week 17,
you've probably hit on that to some extent.
That's your question. The way that I would analyze it
is again, we obviously always do it as a market related thing and
this is. Everything I'm hearing from
Chris is telling me that the market is over concerned about
this, right. And I've made the 8020 point
where 80% of the time it's the same, You know, it says no drop
off. 20% of the time it's catastrophic.
It's probably more like 95, five or even more.
Cuz like what you're saying, Chris, is those catastrophic
events are very limited. Yeah.
So the question is, is let's say it's 95.5, the 5% chance of
ruin. Where you get all the way to the
championship, you have that roster and the and the weather
is what crushes that roster. In week 17, probably not even
5%, but you know, contingent on all those scenarios, we'll say
it's 5%. Are we getting a 5% discount on
those stacks because people are worried about that?
Like what is the market discounting it more than the the
actual weather catastrophe concern.
I would argue the market probably is overplaying that.
Those are easy. Easier stacks to make because
people are too worried about the weather based on everything I'm
hearing from Chris, like literally from this
conversation, that's how I'm interpreting it.
And honestly, if you put in the the DFS layer, how many folks,
even if they are stacking that game, The more common approach
would probably be what Nick Chubb and joke who with like.
Right. You know because.
They're saying it's gonna be a weather game.
It's gonna say to be a weather game, so at most they're
probably gonna have Chub. They might have in Joku and if
they had Garrett Wilson earlier than they probably drafted him,
but not not everybody's gonna want to try and do in a Elijah
more. Yeah, it makes you want to go do
a huge stack, yeah. Yeah, it doesn't make.
That's what it makes me want to do too.
Just stack up those games, cuz I mean if you show up with a game
that's less popular, that's called leverage.
Yeah, yeah, right. All right.
I did register us for a basketball mania.
We are on the clock at one for Chris Allen.
What do you do when Jefferson, Chase and Tyree killer off the
board? I've been going CMC at this
point, like with all those guys like off the board, well, I do
prefer, I mean, I like Cooper Cup, but I've typically gone CMC
here. Let's let's get the let's get
the Chris Allen experience here with CMC.
Introduced him to the Avalanche. I don't actually see.
I think we get away with it. This isn't.
This is I don't see any friends in this draft are you is.
Anyone. I've been going cup there, but
the I don't think I've calibrated for the the more and
more we're getting confirmation on Brock Purdy, the more and
more CMC. I mean at 4 is maybe a discount
like he could catch a lot of balls.
Yeah. I'm taking him over hill now.
CMC over. Hill, not cop.
Yeah, but not cop. OK, got it.
Yeah, and it's it's dude. I did not believe so.
I had Eagles on best ball after dark.
If you guys are YouTube members on my channel or ship chasing
you guys saw that and Eagles told me he's like Nick Chubb is
gonna be a first round pick by the end of best ball maintenance
season. He's gonna go ahead of Bijan.
And I was like, no way man. It's like it's not gonna happen.
Nick Chubb is screaming up boards like all these with
eight. Yeah, I I I'm told I was like, I
was like there's no way. And now I I see it all.
The time. Can someone tell me why he was
already overpriced I had. No idea why.
I definitely missed out like he was.
He was like going very cheap for where Nick Chubb usually goes,
and I didn't hammer it because I was like, yeah, he seems.
Last year he was like I. Mix him in.
He was like a third round pick last year.
You could get him at like 3-10 last year.
Yeah, is. That right.
And you could get him at like 2323 turn like earlier parts of
this year, that's where I was taking him.
That's right, 2123 somewhere in there.
But now I've seen him routinely go like that nine, so if you
would pick 910. It's gone like wide receiver and
then Nick Chubb on the wrap. That's typically what I've seen.
I think Jared nailed it though. Chubb snow game. 40 point week
17. It honestly might be partly
people are like, don't like that week 17 game the pass he gave.
But Nick Chubb. Except then they're not taking
Breece Hall either, So then it kind of falls apart.
Right. Or do you mean like you mean
Dalvin Cook with all this Dalvin cook to the jet stock?
Oh God, don't do that. I'm so torn on that one.
I want cheaper Breeze Hall and I, but I also want to protect my
existing bags. I also I I'm just I'm drafting
through I I wrote up this article how I'm I'm gonna take
less breeze hall a little bit which is true.
I did pass on them a few times that I normally wouldn't have
but then I was on the clock at the the 3:01.
You know, five of A5 earlier and I was just like, I'm fucking
taking breeze. All I took I was Jefferson a
Lava Breese. I mean that's.
Fun there's as a fun Why, why, why?
Why would they get down on cut like it just doesn't.
I don't like until that happens I'm not buying it.
The only thing I can think of is that they just want to really
try and push as many chips in as possible, even though in my mind
that you should just go ahead and like load up on the
offensive line. Just make sure Aaron Rodgers is
protected. You don't need to really stock
up on running. Way better, yeah.
This is what's crazy too. Kevin says that we underestimate
this room because it did seem like you got a Nick Chubb, Derek
Henry, but then you still have T Higgins, Waddle Lava all come
off the board. Here we are.
Getting Derek Henry team is gonna be in for.
It that's high T drafting baby right there.
So, Chris, do you steer into the Avalanche or do you capitulate
with Devonta Smith? I capitulate with Devonta Smith.
That's that's what I've done, yeah.
Yeah. Yeah, I I think we're gonna get,
I mean have you guys been seeing this stuff with with Barclay,
with the the Monday deadline as far as accepting his franchise
or not. Yeah.
And otherwise he's gonna his only option is to hold out.
He has he has no other option or to play on the $10 million.
But wait, what does that mean? He starts saying.
He starts saying cur fines is that?
It's just, sorry, sorry. The deadline on Monday is if
they can agree to a longer contract and the Giants are
like, no, we're just giving you the tag.
And so he's. After that point, he won't.
They won't be able to negotiate a longer term deal.
This year, exactly the only option for him after Monday will
be to play under the $10 million tag.
Or hold out. Wow.
Or hold out, yeah. So I get the only reason I bring
that up is I do think we're going to start to see some
cheaper Barkley, at least over these few days until we get some
clarity on that. So he's falls all the way here
to the 2-3 turn. So I hadn't been drafting a lot
of Barkley, but I do think I'll start to pick some up here in
this 2-3 range, you know, where we've all been drafting.
I've yet to draft them in best ball mania.
I've mixed them in so. Yeah, I thought we'd get them.
What do you what do you guys like to do here, Chris?
I'm curious which which direction you go?
I would still. I've I've like really started
steering into getting, uh, more like charges.
Why I received. I've taken Keenan like here
before. Wow.
OK. I don't.
We don't. He belongs here.
I love that. I mean it's it's aggressive, but
I think he belongs here from a peer values.
That's kind of what I'm thinking over the over those other guys.
I've taken him over, like, yeah, the guys in front of him right
now, I've taken him over most of those guys.
Debo is maybe the only one I would make a case for, but those
other three guys, I think Keenan should go ahead.
Yeah, DK. No, Calvin, no.
Was, is that an avalanche take are you?
Because I think one of the key questions right now in drafts is
how you handle the 2-3 turn and kind of not even the turn that
sort of larger back, you know the front half of the board.
When you're coming back on the backside of the second round all
the way to kind of the mid to late third, there are running
backs there who I think we're kind of not used to being priced
like that. Are you?
How are you handling that? Yeah, are you tempted by Ram?
Andre Jacob's at that spot? Jacob's yes.
Ram Andre No. For some reason I I haven't, I
haven't been able to really suss out why.
Maybe that's a leak in my game, but I've I've tended more
towards Jacobs than. Than we all have guys like that.
I know exactly what you're describing.
I actually feel the same way about Ram Andre right now.
I've been pretty in on him, so that's interesting.
Well he's Cook is one of the you know the Patriots are one of the
teams that's getting floated for Cook.
I don't seriously take it. But then they also keep talking
at Montgomery. It's like kind of this, like you
know, I don't want to hear anything about a guy not being
the workhorse, you know, like I don't want to hear a single
thing. I'm hearing like multiple
things. Like I know Jacobs has the the
holdout stuff as well, but I I I think that gets resolved.
I. Feel Ramondra, the gap between
him from a talent perspective, he was really good at all the,
you know, advanced rushing metrics last year, the gap
between him and. Especially Ty Montgomery, but I
mean, Peter Strong might be a thing but basically everyone
else on that depth chart, I think from a I agree with you
and I Bel checks tendencies concern me.
But from a you know we maybe don't play in the running back
talent enough perspective like if Ramondre is as much better as
the rest of those guys as he has appeared to be so far in his
career. Belichick will lean into that.
He's done it before. He leaned into like Lawrence
Maroney at one point. He when he had Corey Dillon, he
he had Corey Dillon be the guy for a year.
I mean, it's not like a very frequent thing, but he has had
guys. Or maybe Corey Dillon was even
before Belichick. On him, maybe that was.
Yeah, he's had that guys. I really like Ramadre.
I think he's very good, but I actually don't think he's been
like a superstar, especially in the receiving stuff, I think.
He's very capable as a receiver, but he was.
He was running back 27 in ESPN's receiver ratings last season.
I'll pull up his yard. On the rushing stuff.
The rushing stuff. What it What he is to me is he's
just super solid across the board.
Like he can do everything for you.
It's actually sort of similar to Josh Jacobs, like he can do
everything for you. He's got size.
You don't ever have to take him off the field.
If you're looking for that type of running back, like he's
awesome, but if a guy would rather have.
You know coach would rather have a bit more of a committee and
played a guy's strengths. He yeah he had 1.24 yards per
out run last year that's like right around what 4 net had last
year. It's not a bad number but it's
not like special. I don't I don't think he's like
as protected because he doesn't. He doesn't.
He's not he's not a super. Yeah, the lack of efficiency.
The lack of efficiency in the receiving game, I think that's a
good point. I agree with you there.
I think I've. I don't know exactly this, the
advanced rushing stats, I don't have it in front of me, but I
think I've heard that he was among the top in what, like, you
know, forced miss tackles per attempt, all that stuff.
I'm trying to pull it up, but yeah, and even.
Well, I don't know about explosive run rate, but even
still, like forced miss tackles, I thought like he in yards after
contact per attempt. I thought he was.
Right. I think he's like.
Elite at those What are you? What are you seeing that has him
as, like, average? Pat.
No, no, I don't mean that he's average.
I just mean that he's not. He's not a star in terms of he's
at, he's not. I mean, you could have made the
case he is a star because he's good at everything and that's
really hard to find. But he didn't do like so he had
62 rush yards that were expected 133 attempts as a rookie. 141 on
210 times last year we make this picking off.
Yeah, we're on the clock here. Tebow slid all the way to 46.
Watson comes off the board. London Mike Dub.
If we want to build out Chargers, DeAndre IU mixed.
Fields, there's Herbert still here, I assume, But yeah, yeah,
yeah, yeah. Yeah.
I'm assuming Burrowed Fields is on the is on the board, yeah.
What do you guys like? I double up charges or go to
London. Chris, say it.
London. So I wanna run this by Pete.
I know that you've talked in the Fantasy Life discord about this,
but for the early round quarterbacks like while it
becomes more of a typical path to like do like the Stefan
Diggs, Josh Allen stacks and all of that.
But have you guys like started looking at building out your
stacks with some of the later on options.
So if you were to do like an Allen, Kincaid, Shakir, that
sort of thing where it's like you know that there's going to
have. There's There's going to be a
number of targets available to most of the pass catchers on a
weekly basis, just from the password of expectation
associated with the Bills. But instead of using a stack
that most folks are going to be building, why not look at some
of the other pass catchers that might be less rostered on some
of these teams. So I can set up a Keenan, Alan,
Mike Williams, Herbert, You do Keenan Herbert, Everett, Keenan
Herbert. I don't know, throwing Josh
Palmer if if you want to, but it's just looking at those.
Lesser lesser pieces of the offense.
The lesser popular parts of the offense in order to stack like
your early round quarterbacks. So interesting spot to think
through here. If you're thinking about
detours. If we do take a quarterback,
we're probably gonna be in a pretty nice spot for a tight end
in the sixth round as well. Just something to consider.
Yeah, I think it's Deonte or God one for me.
I don't know about you guys. Yeah, either one of those two is
fine. I'd go Deonte over God when I
think, but I'd I would also go Herbert.
Yeah, I was. Thinking that.
Situation. So the only the only thing
that's interesting about Herbert is often Keenan is on this side
of the board and falls into a more like ADP correlated range
for the Keenan drafter at the 5-6 turn.
We obviously took him here right early and the Mike Williams
drafters behind us, small chance for a slide.
That's what I was thinking. Two things, that we didn't take
Mike Williams in four and then because we didn't double that we
might want to try to play for him to fall in the sixth.
Yeah. Deonte's.
Really risen up, huh? Yeah.
You like you used to be able to, I noticed on 6.
How many times were people going to quote that zero touchdown
regression before? Yeah, the regression stat
before. So I pulled up the Ramadre
Stevenson thing. Pat yards after contact per
attempt, Third in the NFL among all running backs, behind only
Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb, miss tackle.
Percentage generated second among all running backs.
But at least at 100 running rushing attempts find only Josh
Jacobs. Last year he was like those are
the two. As far as I understand the two I
I really don't care about running backs, but I'm like
quoting people I don't even know I'm quoting far as I understand
the two most predictive rushing skill statistics and he was
really good at both of them. Like Elite last year both of
them. I I like the NFL next Gen.
stuff, which he was very good in looking at the guys with 200
plus attempts. He had what he was behind Chubb,
Pollard, Travis Etn as a Pacheco, Deonte Foreman, Tyler
Algier and then Ramondra. Is that the success rate one
though? No, that's rush.
Yards are expected per. Attempt R Wiley.
Yeah. Which is I think, a pretty good
metric. It's, it's kind of an explosive
metric, yeah. Yeah.
Per attempt. I didn't thought it was per
attempt or total, but yeah yeah. I should have known that the
team that started Nick Chubb, Derek Henry and Naji Harris.
Would take it totally. Dad to take an unstacked Justin.
For. The audio listeners our team
through 5 routes, Christian McCaffrey, anchor Devonta Smith,
Keenan Allen, Drake London and Deontay Johnson.
I mean the one thing is we do still have some quarterback
outs. We mentioned the Purdy stuff
with CMC. If anyone wants to join me on
the Ritter train with London, Deontay Johnson with Pickett.
So we're not boxed out of. Of stacks here.
No. And if we want to go the picket
route, I mean we can still grab Lockett JSN on the run back if
we need to. Yeah it was a really long time
ago but Bill Belchuck, 2004 Patriots gave Corey Dillon 345
carries at one point. I mean there's some like I I
just think it look like I know that's a really long time ago
but we we act like belch check won't ride a guy and I think if
if I think he rode Ramondra to a degree last year.
When Damian was banged up. Right.
And I think when he has guys that are the clear best runner
he's like fuck this. I'm gonna ride this guy like
I've he's the best player. He's the best football player.
You know like Belchick's that kind of like, you know hard
nosed guy. He's like, dude, I'm I'm leaving
him on the field like he's the best player.
Like I'm not gonna I'm not gonna rotate just for rotation's sake.
So I mean I think that's the bet with Ramondre.
It's like you're like Belchick's just gonna be like this is our
best runner. We're riding him.
To be clear, I have 8.7% Ramondre.
I'm not out on Ram Andre at all. It's just that you know with
Breese, I'm having to like have a little come to Jesus moment
with Breese and go, you know, they might sign cook, you should
save some bullets, save some ammo.
Maybe you can get cheap Breese later if they do sign to Alvin.
But they've been Dalvin's been floated to the Patriots too.
Like that's something I think we should bake in a little bit of
that risk and what does it say that that he's being floated
there with Breese it says. We're not sure if this ACL
thinks going to recover as quickly as we want, and we're
going for it this year with the Patriots.
They're not going for it. Why do they want to bring in
Dalvin? That's like a little bit of a
red flag. It's not a huge red flag, but
it's enough for me to be like, I think Jacob's signing that tag
and they're going to ride him all season.
Like, why don't I just take Jacobs?
Yeah, that's good. Jacobs is very attractable too.
This is the spot I basically envisioned.
We'd be in Kittle slides all the way to 66.
JSN comes off the board at 67. This isn't your normal ship
chasing room. Those guys would be fixtures of
the fifth round. Pits does fall to us.
I have a feeling if you guys want to do pits, we're going to
probably still like the wide receiver that comes back.
To us at 7 too. We got London.
We're going straight. Desmond Ritter.
Double stuff. Let's go.
We do we. I'm in on Ritter by the way.
I finally I've come around on. Ritter Let's do it.
Owl. But you guys got me on.
Ritter. I'm in.
All right, all right. You know who got me with Sean?
Sean. Worth that.
Yeah. Good ass.
And he didn't even. Here's how good Sean is.
He didn't even write the Ritter article.
He wrote the preamble to what I knew was going to be the Ritter
article and I was like, fine, I know, I know you're going to
sell later. I can already tell I'm going to
be sold later, so I might as well just get on board now and
and retreat to my anti howl base and see if I can fight them up
there. I'm losing this Ritter battle.
Well, you're losing. You're losing the howl battle
pad. All we do is draft howl together
on the street. Man, we're gonna four straight,
five straight receivers. Wait.
Wait till Jahan Dotson makes it back to us here and then it sets
up the Sam Howell build. Ohh.
God pickins. You pickins.
We'll take pickins, double s. Let's go, pickins.
I mean, look at that. Yeah.
Wow. We are all right.
This is a Picket Ritter special. Let's go.
We're just banking on scrambles like this.
Guys, I I do. I will be the voice of reason
here and say this is not A2 quarterback build.
This is not A2 quarterback build.
Thank you, Chris. Absolutely, you're right, an.
Unstacked Sam Howe kind of rounds.
Oh. God.
Mac Jones bring back. Now I will like all jokes aside,
pretty, pretty fits. Nice with those two.
Yeah, fits. Yeah.
Oh yeah. I was just thinking that.
In, in hindsight if we would have, I mean Debo almost made it
back in the. Fall.
Yeah, yeah. Wow.
Yes, someone someone in the chat said they've been seeing Debo
fall in their rooms. I'm I'm trying to see like I
haven't. Really seen Debo fall.
I've seen Drake London fall a lot.
I got him in the fifth round, the late 5th round of a draft.
He also goes really late on DraftKings and I wonder if like
the platforms are kind of like starting to cross pollinate a
little more. Or something.
Yeah, interesting. You know what I mean?
So I don't know, I don't know what's going on, but he there
was a huge gap between where London goes like London's more
of like a mid 5th rounder on DraftKings and he's like a early
4th rounder on Underdog. And it seems like the underdog
ADP is meeting at the DraftKings ADP a little bit.
Yeah, I know. I mean, I I know do you know,
DraftKings has been running a bunch of their promotions,
giving out tickets and stuff, although that accounts for like
underdog drafters going over there.
I don't know what's what's pulling DraftKings drafters.
Over it is. It is interesting when you're on
DraftKings you're like, ooh, I kind of like this like you.
Yeah. It probably tricks you a little
bit like you know you don't want to if you get London in the 5th
a bunch on DraftKings, you don't want to come over and take
London in the early 4th on Underdog, right?
You're like, alright, I'm getting, I'm getting.
Mid 5th London I'll take you know Mclaurin or whatever.
The Mclaurin goes really late on DraftKings too for some reason
I. Didn't get that either.
I'm not sure why Mclaurin falls on DraftKings.
I don't know. I mean, the receivers in general
go a little later on DraftKings, funnily enough, but not all of
them. There's like certain guys that
that are a little bit more in line with their underdog Adp's,
yeah. Chris, how what is kind of like
your overall portfolio of a best ball mania teams or even just
kind of on underdog like structurally have there been
things that you've been trying to accomplish or stuff you find
yourself doing a lot? From a structure standpoint it's
I've typically gone the what 2583 route just looking at mid
and mid and late tight ends because I've been favoring more
of like the. Pat Firemuth all the way back to
like Luke Musgrave, like all of those guys.
And because of the games that I've typically been stacking,
like I'm really digging the like the Green Bay, Minnesota game.
So if I can work in any of the like Green Bay guys like even
drafted Jordan Love like a couple of times those have been
like definitely like 3 quarterback teams.
But liking where like you can get like Luke Musgrave and like
some of those other guys, Jaden Reed been grabbing him a little
bit like towards the back in the drafts.
But yeah, from a structure standpoint it's typically been
like 2583 had some three quarterback teams like mixing in
like Kirk to a like that typically in that quarterback
round. But again like picking up the
same types of tight ends. But yeah like also looking at a
lot of the mid round RB values so from.
For shot White to back to like Gibson that you can get like in
the tenish round, like somewhere in there really liking like some
of those guys, especially if you do these wide receiver heavy
drafts that we're seeing right now, yeah.
We are about to pick at 8-9 our team here through 7 rounds.
Christian McCaffrey, Anchor Devonta Smith, Keenan Allen,
Drake London, Deonte Johnson, George Pickens and Kyle Pitts.
Nice build here. Man.
The tight ends really falling in these rooms.
Dallas Cotter, It's still on the board here.
At if he gets to us, I just think we spent a 6th rounder on
Pitts. So like, technically we didn't
even go elite tight ends. So, like virtually, there's
nothing wrong with going 6:00 and 8:00.
And we have a bet on the Eagles with Devonta.
Yeah. Yeah.
So I I think it's kind of an yeah.
We take him if he gets it also. Kind of does.
Go there. I mean, yeah, he, he goes bully
with Kelsey, yeah. But I I don't mind it.
Yeah, all right. This does feel like a running
back pick here. Do you guys have a favorite?
I would be fine with Jovante. I know John's getting pretty
bullish on him the reports are getting.
Fairly bullish. Bring back on Kenny.
Yep. You go with that.
That's a good call. I like it.
Yeah, I I think the Javante stuff's interesting and I know I
think Jacob Sanderson had a good tweet about it too.
And I was writing about it for the newsletter the other day
where it was like I had written about Javante and the team and
Peyton had like bullish comments about him being ready for
training camp. That was in mid-May.
And his ADP had fallen around and a half since then and
literally nothing has happened. Like after they signed P Ryan
didn't draft a running back, didn't do anything they say,
like on track, on track, no setbacks.
And his Adp's been falling And it's it's kind of weird why that
is, but I I definitely like the price in this range.
Yeah. Yeah, I think he could rise to a
uncomfortable level. And I don't have a ton of him.
So I'm I've been sort of like you know he might just keep
falling but I don't think he's going to keep falling now.
And I also do not want to take him and it's like a sixth round
or something like I that's where it starts to get really.
I just am worried about you know what he looks like this season,
how much upside he really has coming off that multi ligament
tear. So yeah, I think I think the
bottom is in on Giovante was around the tenth round.
Congratulations if you got him. I didn't really get much.
But I would almost rather like once Jovantes ADP starts to
spike, my assumption is that Semaj's ADP drops a little bit.
Yeah, then I want to scoop that. Yeah, I think that's a really
good call and I think you can still take both of them.
I think you can play that backfield basically any way you
want. Charbonne goes into the board,
we're sudden. Here based on.
That button too. I have the Denver Lac stuff.
I think he's pretty undervalued. I've made the case that I think
he's inside the wide receiver window.
I think a lot of people are thinking he's outside and a
boring player. But and doing the projections
again, I didn't feel like digging into it again with the
projections. Nothing cut everyone off.
Is everyone cool with him? Yeah.
Be cool that first.
No, that's what I like. Yeah, yeah, OK Just I I came
around to like, I think there's a case for him like his his
target sprout run. His way to target front run,
very solid last year like the efficiency was bad, but we know
Russ was bad and like if the offense does take a step
forward, if you're playing Denver, it was his lowest yards
for target of his career. But you know still solid range
in terms of volume drawing. And that was actually kind of a
little bullish because we know that a lot of teams were playing
the cover too deep shell and a lot of these deep threats were
did see their targets for outrun decline like Mike Williams had a
down year in that regard. Gabe Davis had a down year in
that regard. George Pickens efficient first
year but didn't really have a strong talks about run with this
high a dot it was it was hard for all quarterbacks to push the
ball down to Chris you mentioned earlier some of these
quarterbacks a dots have fallen the league wide.
A dot fell quite a bit last year but Sutton still earned some
pretty solid volume for a guy with a 13 + a dot.
He just wasn't efficient and part of that's like OK, well
Russ was like chucking at 9-9 yards out of bounds.
Like if Sean Payton can develop the offense a little bit.
I still think Sutton's like. He last last year was supposed
to be OK. He's the second year removed
from the ACL. 2021 wasn't great. He obviously didn't get anything
in 2020 because he tore the ACL. 2019 you all the way back was a
year two. He was good.
So you'll get 2020, he gets hurt. 2021 first year back kind
of write that off. Last year was supposed to be the
OK. He's his second year back.
He can be good and he wasn't. But I'm basically, I'm arguing
that I don't think there's anything underlying it other
than some efficiency issues that were, you know, sort of systemic
to the whole Denver offense. There's not really anything in
there that's like, OK, well, he's definitely bad.
Now let me get you happy. Go ahead.
So 81 wide receivers were tracked last year in ESPN's Open
Score. Where do you think Jerry Judy
finished out of the 81 and where do you think Cortland Sutton
finished? I would say Judy.
Yeah, I know it's a trick question, but I would definitely
like. Quietly ahead of him.
Like 75 and 76. Judy was 11th and Sutton was
12th. Dang.
Wow. OK, And Russell Wilson still
sucked? Yep, that's.
Even that's terrible. That's Russ Sutton's catch.
Score was 25, which is extremely low.
Only Romeo Dobbs and Debo Samuel finish lower than that.
That to me feels like I'll fade that part.
You know especially if especially if we're talking
about him running more slants and maybe getting used with like
a little bit of a lower a dot like we all we know that drops
and stuff like that. We don't want to be focused on
the catch part so much of why we're zero and be focused on the
can you get open part. Yeah and it looks like he can
still get open. I think the narrative of he's he
didn't make it back from the ACL is just.
Is is actually this like completely wrong?
Like that's not backed up by the data I don't think.
Yeah, yeah, that's, that's the point I was trying to make,
Kobraka says. Was something good or did he
just get that massive target share that one year?
The point I was trying to make is that one year was his year 2
breakout towards ACL, year three.
And then, you know, it's basically been year four, year
five since that. It's weird that, you know, we're
five years in. We don't really know.
But my point is we don't know and we're getting a price here
where it's still an upside profile.
That's the argument is the inside the wide receiver window,
does he have an upside profile? I think he still does.
Like, I still think he could be a guy who could have, you know,
be a fifth round pick next year. Basically, he can rise several
rounds at ADP. There's other receivers in this
range that can't. Heather Void can't rise.
You know that much in ADP. No, I mean, dude, he was the
market insisted that he go at the end of the third round last
year. It was crazy.
If you were like, I actually prefer Judy.
They were like, you're a fucking idiot.
Like, it was not, it wasn't. They weren't cool about it, you
know. Like it really worked.
So, like, I guess I'm now kind of, OK, wait, now we like, can't
take Sutton at all. Like, what's going on?
It's very odd to me. Is over.
It's very strange. We're on the clock here.
I would put in a vote for. I think one of the one of the
running backs, I think Robinson I was.
Gonna say Robinson or a chain, but I don't know if you guys
have anything else. Do you guys care about Robinson?
CMC Week 17? No, not really.
All right, What do you got? Chris, Give me a name.
A chain. Let's do it.
Yeah, I like. I think of those guys.
It was it was between Robinson and a chain.
For me there, I think the CMC gives us easily.
Harris for me there, Yeah. Why is it not Harris?
It would be Harris or Robinson for me.
And I'm really. Thinking about.
It more for well, partly because we got Jovante, so we want the
early season stuff a little bit more and.
Probably. I think Harris.
I think Harris has a lot of upside in that backfield.
Yeah, I. Mean my thing is just market
based. I mean the the reports with him
competing with Latavius Murray for that role, I think we're
getting Damien Harris and I'm not even saying that like he's
not gonna beat him out. I'm just saying I think we're
gonna get cheaper Damien Harris. I I missed that on on my
vacations. So that's why I said why, why
isn't it Damien Harris, that's fair, That's a good, that's a
good answer to that question. Yeah, who know?
I mean, it seems like insane that Damian Harris couldn't beat
out Latavius Murray, but Latavius has been hanging around
like and Ben a Thorn, hit a lot, like he was pretty good a few
games for the Broncos down the stretch last year.
I think what one thing Harris has gone for him is he's been a
very solid pass blocker and actually like vehicle yards per
hour and stuff, actually totally solid receiver and Cook was an
atrocious pass blocker last year.
So I think it's a bit of a wide range of outcomes where he
either gets beaten up by Davis Murray, but I think on the
upside he like kind of does a Devon Singletary to that
backfield. We got 20 seconds.
This is a pretty Choose Your Out Adventure flat spot here.
If you want some early season production, you could do Jamal
Williams. Yeah.
Or McKinnon. Yeah, is how likely is Russ to
make it back? Russ is gone.
Russ Wilson is running. Eighth round, another Another
running back. Yeah, I feel Jamal.
Yeah. So like to your point Pat, like
I think CMC does give us a decent amount of cover, but with
Javante and a chain you could have guys that are just like
zeros for the first. I like Jamal a lot with this
build and I don't really take Jamal a ton, but he he makes.
And when I said another running back at the last second, I said
it too late. I was wondering if like Warren
and and Kendra Miller were there, which I think I would,
yeah. Guys.
Ooh, that would have been a call.
Yeah. We could, we could have gone
down and yeah, maybe we should have.
Went Yep, there you went. Yeah, I went to point out to you
guys, I didn't know if you guys had noticed that Russell Wilson
went at pick 81. I saw that did not.
I almost spit my drink out. Yeah, I mean, to be fair.
I thought we were setting up a Rust thing this whole time.
Oh, no, I do. That was long gone.
I mean, I still like, I still like the charger with the
running back and the wide receiver coming back.
That's still fun. But.
Yeah, what? What is your guys's read on ADP
movement relative to the chimera stuff?
It seems like people are more bullish.
On him now. Do you guys think we're getting
cheaper Jamal and cheaper Kendre and more expensive Alvin?
Is that how this is gonna play out?
Probably. Yeah, I unfortunately think
there's no argument for Jamal if you're gonna get more bullish on
Khmer, cuz Kendre is the one that's like.
The talent based play. What is the argument in Jamal
like? He wasn't even that efficient
last year. He just scored a bunch of
touchdowns. He wasn't very good last year,
yeah, the success rate stuff that I looked at was actually
quite poor for him. On this build, the argument for
him is Kamara gets six games, Kendre's not ready and we get
like Swag Daddy. Yeah.
What do you get time for early season stuff Third.
Yeah. Yeah, sure.
He's. And so it's perfect on his back.
Yeah. Until Jovante is like back,
like, yeah. Handling the majority of the
workload. Yeah.
Yeah, he's he's he's a a bridge running back.
But Kendra, I think can be good enough that like, because Kamara
has not been a very good runner. I think the argument for Kamara
if you're playing him is that he's still pretty decent as a
receiver last year and like his earlier career stuff when he
wasn't carrying 200 times. That's like, you know, probably
a better touch mix for him, 150 carries and more receiving.
But then it's like, OK, who's the other big runner?
And I mean, Kendra, Ken, he's that profile, right?
Pat, like he's got size. He can be.
Like I think from a talent based perspective, he can take Russian
work from Camara, is what I'm saying, Jamal.
That's why I just get it by default who he is, yeah, yeah.
He's a big back. He's not.
He's kind of like, he kind of runs like a little bit of a
smaller back, but I like that. I kind of like, yeah, you know,
what smaller backs do? They try to avoid people.
Yeah, I like when. Big backs run.
I guess if Tantra is not good, Jamal can just be the veteran
who gets work right and then. Yeah, if Khmer comes back and
isn't really good for whatever reason, maybe Jamal.
I guess I want more than than like a six game limit for a
running back in that range, you know what I mean?
Yeah. Yeah, we.
We're about to pick at the end of the 12th round here.
Still no quarterbacks. We got 4 running backs CMC
Javante, Devon A chain, Jamal Williams, wide receivers Devonta
Smith, Keenan, Alan Drakeland and Deonte Johnson, George
Pickens, Cortland Sutton, Kyle Pitts at tight end.
We should still definitely think through if if we are doing a 3QB
build, we should think through. I think we or I guess Purdy
gives us stuff. I was going to mention just
throw a name out here of Rondell Moore as a bring back with
Devonta and maybe even being done at at wide receiver since
we already have kind of like a lot of our other stacks set up.
Even though we don't have a quarterback, I kind of would
like to keep that wide receiver bullet and you know, if we can.
Like we could do a Stafford right here and just like try to
grab a a falling van or get it too, too late.
Something like that. Taking Stafford with all these
other stacks here With it you could do colliding Rondell
Moore. 10. 30 You want to grab more?
Go ahead, go. Ahead, the one thing I'll say,
Pat, is like if there's a really obvious wide receiver, I don't
think it still precludes us from getting to 8.
Like we we're covered pretty well positionally, I feel like.
Yeah, we could do 3/5. 82 The stack The stack option now is is
the third stack option is the Patriots.
We have two tight end options to be our tight end to we only have
one tight end you can play Gosicki or Hunter Henry with
Mack Jones. It's the it's the easiest
fucking thing to. Do well.
The other thing too is Kyler now fits with this build as well.
Which is which? I like that, cuz I I mean you
look, you get you got me on Ritter a little bit, but a
picket Ritter. Quarterback room.
I'm like, I really. Could no, we're we're all in
agreement that it's three, I think no.
No, I'm saying what I want in the quarterback profile is
upside, not gotcha, not starts upside.
OK. So you're saying that would push
you to Tyler over Purdy in that configuration?
No, it'd be. Maybe not over Purdy, but over I
forget. Car or Joan?
Back Jones or whatever. I like Roshon as our bring back
for the. Atlanta Yeah, that's a good one.
That's a good play here. A running back pick here.
Rochon Love. It, yeah, yeah.
I keep forgetting. We get the yeah.
I've tended more towards Donta Foreman.
That's just after looking at some stuff like his efficiency
stats, like after CMC left, but I think.
Rochon's fine. He was awesome.
Yeah. I'm also, I'm not opposed to of
I mean those guys are so cheap in Foreman Falls.
Like that's definitely a backfield.
I don't mind yeah. Taking it twice, yeah.
Yeah. Do you think too, like because
the way I've been thinking about it and tell me if it's wrong is
that kind of what's exciting about Rochon is if he gets the
pass catching work there and then you know Foreman, we know
who Foreman is too. Like where I I don't like if
something happened to Herbert or whatever they the new staff just
doesn't like him as much like a Rochon Foreman 1-2 Punch.
Like I can see how that would work out for both of them.
I want to go back to our quarterback thing.
I disagree with Pat on the upside thing.
We have two double s, and I think Pickett and Ritter both
run enough that they clearly have weekly quarterback upside.
Like, I don't what What is upside at quarterback?
Like? You can spike touchdowns, 30
rushing yards and have a third like Mitch Trubisky used to have
Millie Maker winning upside on a weekly basis.
He's not like that much more of a runner than what we're saying.
Reddit or Pickett can be like those those.
That's what. That's what quarterback is in
fantasy, right? Like if you look pretty under.
Powered If I go into a DFS tournament with Pickett or or
Ritter, I feel pretty under powered at the position.
So I'm just saying I think to me I want the.
In in any given week in DFS, I agree with that.
I'm saying that when you have 3 quarterbacks in best ball and
you could automatically put the top score into your lineup, I
don't think you have to have like like a rush, like a Kyla
rushing profile to have upside. It's a point in making.
So you're saying he has a lot more upside in the, I mean
that's why you would draft Kyler because there's a chance he
might not even play this year. So he is like the biggest upside
guy on the board without question at this point.
Otherwise you wouldn't take him at all.
Right, right. That's sort of.
But my argument is like, it's maybe not even worth the risk
for the cases that you've already made about starts,
risks. I think he's kind of fool's gold
because I don't think he's gonna run as much when he comes.
I don't draft a lot of Kyler. I don't like.
Tyler Yeah, I just it we were so late and I'm like like Stafford
to me has upside because they might just throw a bunch.
But I think the thing with Ritter that's tough is like we
know they don't want to throw. They probably.
Throw We're playing both London and Pitts, yeah, So we're
playing them to throw we're. Playing with throw, but we're
playing would be the Seahawks, right?
We're not playing. They're still not gonna throw a
lot. You know, Geo was like.
High win rate player. Last year he had upside.
Yeah, they were what, top ten? That's right, over expectation.
He had a lot of upside from a Get me there.
But I don't think even if you got there, you weren't super
psyched with having Gino as your upside play in the final week.
I just I. Think you want.
And just to put my Week 17 hat on, I am in a side on like the
Kyler side. We didn't get dots in.
We didn't build out anything with that Niners Commanders
game. We passed on Robinson.
I do like the idea of building out the Rhonda.
With the devonte. Bring back like that is the
more. You know, levering up that
specific team, like if we are looking for a tiebreaker there,
honestly this room will probably decide it for us to just.
Based on what comes. Like my main case was I didn't
think we like had to have Kyler. I guess that's where I would
would describe I. Don't think we have to have them
either. I I was kind of more framing it
against like a guy like Carr who I floated but I think Purdy has
upside just cuz the offense is so good and scores so many
points so I don't yeah I. Wouldn't And then bitter pick
it, I think. For the same reason I I think
you're right that they probably don't, but once you double stack
both of them, you're kind of saying they they have to have
that right? Yeah, the same way Purdy does.
So how do we wanna play this ADP wise?
Losing Pickett is gonna hurt far more than losing Kyler.
All of these teams have two quarterbacks between us.
How do you guys wanna play it? I'm ongoing picket picket
because Purdy is our our alternate off Kyler.
Yeah, correct. And like Stafford and Love being
there for cover, Like we're probably gonna still get right
our boy, right? Unless they all have two
quarterbacks. They all have elite
quarterbacks, too. Mahone's Allen hurt, so they'd
be taking a third and they all have their second in the mid.
Too. So yeah, then we should be.
Clear. We're gonna get Pickett and
Kyler, right? I mean, that's gotta be.
Yep. Cuz if anyone does take a QB,
they're gonna take probably a staffer, I mean.
I don't. It is the decision you have to
make. Like Ritter should be there at
189 in almost most scenarios, although I'm sure I just fucking
jinxed it. But Purdy's not coming back to
189 anymore, so it is a decision between Kyler and Purdy.
What do you have you Chris, you mentioned you had been doing
lots of the like late 3 Titan builds in like more 2QB builds.
My guess is you haven't been slumming it with us on the the
Getty picket the howls quite as much.
No, actually I have because if I wind up doing the cuz I'll go
wide receiver, quarterback early, you know, in like the
first six rounds with maybe like run running back and then it
kind of leads me into. Getting some of those like those
like quarterbacks like towards the back end because I just got
sniped on a I had DK and Locket, there's a DK Locket or DK and
JSN had Geno Smith queued up and then he went like right
beforehand. So I pivoted fryer mouth picket
and all that. And actually I like the upside
of picket like as like just kind of looking into the scrambling
rate from last season, what we can expect from Deontay Johnson.
You know the positive regression, blah blah blah blah
blah. I've just been not as much into
the running game outside of Jalen Warren so it all kind of
intersects that pick it just being an option for if you do
grab a Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, one of those early round guys
and just pairing him with Pick it later.
The Stafford Fall is nuts, but that is why I still I still
think Kyler's our pick here. Right, fellas?
That's. Yeah, yeah, that's what I.
Mean the way it plans to effort? Yeah, we don't have a single RAM
or giant yet. No and.
We don't have the bullets at wide receiver really to do it.
Yeah, so we know we're gonna take one more quarterback.
That leaves us with two more picks.
We know one of those is at at least a second tight end.
So then really the question is that other pick, 6th running
back, 8th wide receiver, third tight end.
Receivers seem pretty fine to me to stick to seven.
I think so. Well, let's see.
We can get the tight end in the 18th pretty easily.
Well, do you know what also would be nice?
Tight end? That McBride with the Kyler
build is pretty nice. That's pretty nice.
That is solid, yeah. The only and there's.
Other If we got snipe, there's plenty of other options in the
18th. The other option?
We'll see if he gets there. You could toss out Isaiah,
likely right there since we took a chain earlier.
Little kind of. And he he more so as like likely
in a third tight end build right.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I guess I guess you could do likely with
pits if you did just go to but yeah I think I tend to like
likely a little bit more in three tight end.
That's what I was gonna say. So when I do 2 tight end, I go
for the boring vets that I think have good roles, like Knox who's
already gone. Again, I go back to the two
Patriots ones. I think the Sicky and Hunter
Henry are both still just ridiculously valued.
They're not playing the same position.
Well, yeah. That's why I only take a Sicky.
I don't think he's playing very much, but I I like Hunter Henry.
Looking at other correlations, so I think the likely with a
chain is good. We got the old stand by Kate
Otten with Jamal. You want to you want to sell
yourself on that? Know a fan with the Pittsburgh
stuff is it? Play there as well.
Yeah. If you don't think Ghasticki's
playing much and again they are kind of different positions, but
then then Hunter Henry is definitely Miss Price in the
18th. Round, Yeah, No, I take a third.
Round just a player. I took him Kate Otten and
Durham. Smythe is my only three side
ends, so I'm hoping to God I'm right that.
I'm completely with you, Ben, but I just like I tend to, want
to use correlation. To like break ties on this like
amorphous BLOB of tight ends late, even if.
He's but tight end scoring so low.
I I think that's right. But I've sort of talked myself
into tight end scoring is so low to be like viable and fantasy
like you don't need a game to shoot out.
But Hunter Henry just has to catch like 4 balls and score
touchdown. That's a very viable that's
probably tight the 5th overall tight end score that but can't.
Can't make brides do that as well.
And we had a huge bet on. Not a huge bet, but a.
Bet on no, no, he can. But I'm.
I'm saying. I don't think I need to use
correlation if I don't think it's just a tie break.
And I think Hunter Henry's like at least a tier ahead of
McBride. And so it's more of, you know.
I will say I mean again, sorry, this is just thinking about how
we play this pick. I really, really doubt one of
these teams is going to take Ridder as a third QB unstacked,
especially with elites there. So I do think this can be a
tight end pick. If we want to make it my my
builds, McBride, but if you want to sell me on something.
Else with McBride. I mean, we're reaching pretty
far, aren't we? Yeah, let's just go Ritter.
I would rather just reach on Ritter and not risk.
You're reaching or we're not running this 8th, 16th round,
right? Yeah.
What's our luxury? But.
Guys, you're there luxury. More on Ritter than you are on
McBride based on 80 but. I'm saying we should take our
luxury pick here. Running back a receiver.
Running back, a receiver. This is our spot.
We. Were talking about.
Retight in build. Oh, I'm fine with two tight end.
We're gonna. I think we should take one of
the guys we know where. To take take me, take me, cry.
OK, if we don't know who the if there's not a luxury pick
screen. Well, I wanted to see who was
available, that's all. I'm sure the board's, the
board's here. He was.
He was taking McBride. No matter what day.
That's what just happened. You know who's.
Our Who's our Luxury pick? McBride was good.
You had tight end clicks. I don't know who the luxury pick
is, I. Just tell me.
I don't know who that's gonna be.
Tell me in hindsight, who is the luxury?
Pick he found a way to only show McBride on the board is the
only. Player Who's the luxury pick?
Who do you want right? Who do you want?
Who? Do you want Dwayne McBride
drain? That's.
Filibuster we don't even have. There's no other options.
No other options. There's only two.
Mcbrides, I mean. Hopefully this one it's up
better than the rager one, yeah? Kevin referenced that Pete's
Hedbergs cut out an auto trade. I'm.
Not taking the L and tell me you tell me who you wanted to take
over, McBride. No, I'm fine with taking
McBride. I just.
I wanted to see who else is available cuz to.
Me, We're about to have the same discussion here.
Do you want the luxury pick over Ritter?
No Ritter. I wanna take Ritter.
I would say Ritter. We have kinder has to be a 3QB
build. We're legit fucked if someone
else. Takes care, yeah.
We have to take Ritter. Please stop.
Owning me? I'm done.
Being owned on that, please. It is nice to be able to speak
relatively freely without all these piss boys in our room with
us. It is nice and honestly is nice.
We miss you. But I also don't miss you.
Yeah, I was just when I had it sketched out my head, I was
thinking luxury Ritter, tight end.
So then when I was, I was. Like could it be made?
To fucking luxury. Who is this luxury?
I mean, he's highlighted. Players that's what I tossed in.
You just had quarterback entire end when I clearly.
Trey McBride was the luxury pick.
That's all that was available. Actually, he was.
Because I think we're going tight end at the end.
So Trey McBride is the. Luxury, you've highlighted the
luxury pick right here with our correlation.
It's quarter, I'll patter some. So, Ben, someone was in my
YouTube comments today hyping up Cordero Patterson.
You're not alone on on Sea Pad Island.
I love it. I love it.
What? What other tight end do we have?
Hunter Henry still on the board. We must not.
I think he's. Still there?
I don't remember seeing him on the.
Henry. Yeah.
Henry. How was he going behind all?
Like, I kind of like Jake Ferguson, kind of like Luke
Musgrave. How the fuck is Hunter Henry
going behind both of them? Doesn't make any goddamn sense.
They're worried about. So at the end of Gillette
Stadium there it's not like a fully enclosed stadium and
sometimes like the balls when they get thrown to Hunter Henry,
the wind gusts and stuff. Jordan Love is still available
at pick 202 in this room as well.
That is why what? What is this, Pat?
I'm gonna, I'm gonna make a point on like a second thing.
But are you? Are you about to like?
Draw the pickle. Yeah.
Are we? Yeah.
I literally went in the weeds and and like looked at some of
the plays that where tight ends are charted as in the slot.
And I I think that there's just sort of a collective
misunderstanding about what tight end slot snaps even mean.
OK, All right. I'm excited for this.
I'll do. I'll toss out one more Galaxy
Brain pic. This is one of those like.
We specifically passed on Ramondre Stevenson to take
Keenan Allen. Pierre Strong is kind of a fun
pick at the very end as well if we're not going through the.
Title. I don't mind that.
Cute, but that would be, dare I say, a luxury pick.
I really wanna know what pat's gonna do with these this circled
picture of. I need to see some like legit
NFL Network charting capability. Like, yeah, I'm gonna get my
Who's the dude is Orlovsky. I'm gonna.
We gotta get the music in the background, dude.
Yeah. Dude, I'm gonna.
I'm gonna do this on the way. I'm gonna, like, be driving into
my car. You see this?
Let me pull this. Let me show you again.
I mean, Pat, is this against? Because you guys had, if you
guys missed it, the ADP chasing crew had Matt Harmon on on
Monday. I finished listening to that
yesterday. Very good episode.
Is that what inspired you Pat? Are you gonna get in the
charting business? No, I'm not charting.
I'm just looking and seeing what other people are charting.
I wanted to see what the charters are charting and how
they chart because there's a couple things I get sometimes I
get annoyed. I feel like inline tight ends
get a bad rap. You know they're they're acting
like they're just there to block on passing downs when often they
run routes just as much as the other guys And then I feel like
the I I don't buy the they play different positions argument on
the Hunter Henry Mike sickie thing because Mike Sickie's he's
a Titan. And this is what you're going to
diagram for us? I I really want to see are these
actual mic is I thought that was a Raiders snap.
Yeah, it is. There is a Raider snap.
They're not Mike Issicky ones, but there are.
I mean, I can show you. How are you gonna how you gonna
prove to me that Mike Issicky slot snaps are different if
you're not going to show me Mike Issicky slots?
I'm showing you snaps that were charted as slot snaps for tight
ends. It doesn't.
Matter. But then aren't Mike Issicky?
Yeah, they're aren't Kasicky. Who famously only ran routes on
7% of his routes were from in line in.
That was 2021, but like it literally doesn't play in line
7%. He doesn't but I'll I'll I'll
offline. These are the ones I have at
hand. I didn't go pull these.
I'll pull. I'll pull some but.
Show what I'm talking about if you want their specifically.
This is how we expand our fantasy analysis.
Yes, this is the best millionaire globe in the history
of globes. Yeah.
When comes to all 22 film, bro. Listen.
Think how irritated I must have been by this narrative to go
watch all 22. Think about that.
I think you're wrong. You're gonna like I'm excited
for the convincing here. I bullied you guys into Trey
McBride. So you guys, you guys make make
this pick here for the the luxury pick at the end.
Let's Let's do Patterson before I destroy Ben's Kasseki
argument. I'm Team Hunter.
Let's, let's go oh then give him Hunter.
Henry Chris Allen Break Break
Chris High Chris, Who do you like?
Or we'll go with Hunter. I like Hunter.
All right, let's do it. The real tight end.
Let's go through. All right, beautiful.
I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna recap this team real quick for
the audio listeners. And then the audio listeners are
gonna be fucked as Pat draws little squiggly lines on a
screenshot of all. 2220 listeners it will not translate.
It will not. Translate all right our Rubier,
Keddy Pickett, Kyler Murray, Desmond Ritter.
All of them double stacked and it just brings such joy to my
heart. Running backs Christian
McCaffrey, Javante Williams, Devon A Chan, Jamal Williams,
Roshan Johnson. Wide Receivers, Devonta Smith,
Keenan Allen, Drake. London.
And Deontay Johnson, George Pickens, Cortland Sutton,
Rondell Moore, tight ends Kyle Pitts, Trey McBride and Hunter
Henry. Very, very fun team there.
Pat, I give you the floor. Let's hear this.
I need to hear. This.
Oh, that's the wrong thing. Hang on, I want to show the
other one first. So wait, Are you sure what My
question is that purple one, Are you sure that wasn't classified
as? Inline.
Yes, I'm 100% sure. Cuz I did a little bit of
charting for PFF, but it was years ago and I'm pretty sure
they used to classify that as inline.
If they were that. No, I I literally went and
looked. I looked at the that specific
play chart, that specific guide, the play chart, how it was
charted. Then I looked at how the thing
was came out in terms of like who was where and so I like
triple checked that this is the true slides now.
OK, OK so here here's like what I think most people are thinking
is gonna happen. With Kasiki and Hunter Henry.
So this is Dallas Goddard in Gray and this is Zach Ertz.
This is from 2021. In purple, Zach Ertz is lined up
in what I would call a true slot, right like he's playing
slot receiver. Dallas Goddard is lined up like
a tight end, but the thing about Dallas Goddard here is that he
was also. That's a tight end.
I actually I think of both of them as true slot.
Both of them are in this slot. In this in this example, both
are in the slot. But one is in line.
Well, they charted it well. No one is closer, but both are
in the slot. OK.
All right. Let me.
Let me pull up the other one. That's not how I think of the
Henry Gassiki thing. I think that that could happen
on some formations. But you said you thought that's
how you think most people think about.
Well, yeah, personally, that's not how I've been thinking of
it. Let me let me pull this one up
and then tell me how you're thinking of sorry.
This is like kind of more of a. Pain.
I love it. This stream started talking
about PR. We based on Wind Games, and now
we're finishing with Now we're charting definitions of inline
Titans. I love it.
So I'm getting so close to my screen.
Do you see this? This is Hunter Renfro here in
yellow. This is Darren Waller.
OK, you've got, I think this is Adams here.
You've got another or no Adams. That's, that's Adams.
Yeah, yeah, this is. Probably Matt Collins or
something. This was last year.
So these, you know, these are your traditional wide receivers,
wide receiver in the slot, traditional wide receiver
playing the slot. Can you turn, can you turn
paintbrush on and make some squigglies as you talk here?
Yeah, so if you look here, right there in Waller, he's clearly,
you know, kind of a tight end. But this was a slot snap for
Darren Waller. He is standing up.
Can you give me the diagram for the route that he's running to?
He's gonna do, he's actually gonna chip this guy and come out
here and I believe the the route goes to here and car hits him
right over the middle there. There we go.
Nice. There's no.
Is that even true? Did you just fully?
Make that no, I'm pretty sure it's true.
Cuz I've actually watched the play.
That's great. Do you have anything?
Interesting, because Waller chips.
Waller actually chips a guy on this play, so it's a slot snap,
but he does a tight end thing. Is a very.
That's a that's a rare one. Even if you look at a stance,
it's even like half between the the stand up that they do there
and he's almost like looking like an offensive tackle.
He's got his hand kind of honest.
And what it is, is that he's not on the line of scrimmage.
And yeah, and he's not down. So it's like.
That's considered a but that's that's what I'm saying but so
but Hunter Henry's. Going to be down a lot he's his
inline rate was really high. Do you have any in like any
inline? Well, my point is what this one
is, that this is a slot snap for Darren Waller.
I don't see Foster Moreau anywhere.
You know, the slot snap doesn't mean always that you're going to
get A2 tight end thing and ones in the slot.
It's that you can have a slot wide receiver here in Hunter
Henry playing a very traditional slot role and Darren Waller's
also on the field with a slot snap, but he's not.
Really. Doing anything different than
what? A tight end?
Always. Does, Yeah, that happens a lot.
I'm not arguing that take at all.
I my argument would be that Mike Gesicki will play essentially a
role similar to what Hunter Renfro plays in that offense.
In the New England offense, he will play a wide receiver role.
Like people have made that argument for Dalton Kincaid as
well that. He's going to play a different
position. I'm not drafting any Dalton
Kincaid because I I. Don't I just the argument very?
Reasonable. Like that.
And and in Gosicki's position last year and his old stuff, he
essentially did do that. He only lined up in the slot.
So I guess I'm not like he'll end up like a wide receiver.
He was like the Hunter Renfro of that offense.
He was basically their third receiver and three receiver
sets. He's always stand up.
He was never a hand on the ground he had in the dirt.
He was their starting tight. End though.
He was their starting tight end. Just by.
Just a name. Like.
No, no. Like Durham, Smythe didn't
didn't play as many snaps on passing downs as he would have
if Mike. But that's because they played
out Gingold a ton of as a full. I mean that's that's like one of
the weird things about the the Dolphins offense where they kind
of are running. What is it?
It would be 20 personnel, 2 running backs and three
receivers as. Sort of what they probably
should have been classifying it as, cuz cuz he's more or less
playing receiver. They're using a fullback as
they're tied in like the the Niners used.
Yeah they do. Weird stuff too.
Like I was seeing stuff where they had Tyree Hill motioning in
the backfield and coming back around and then Mike Desicki was
in the backfield and then would would option out to the slot
and. They did a ton of weird stuff,
but I Durham Smythe played a lot less than he would have if my
Kazaki wasn't there is based. On right.
I think New England's office is going to be different than that
in that regard. But yeah, this was interesting.
I guess my, my, my only real point would be that I don't.
I don't think I'm arguing with your points, which are valid
points. I just don't think I'm arguing
with them necessarily. I think it's possible you're
saying is true with him being the like a wide receiver
essentially, but I just. We've seen very few instances of
that where you have essentially it's operating out of 12
personnel as their primary base personnel that has had like they
did that with Aaron Hernandez, right?
Yeah. I don't like yeah stats they did
sure that. Yeah.
So it's definitely possible. I just like I've always been a
bit skeptical of how good my Kasuki is as well.
So I'm just like it just feels like a like an outlier situation
that I'm not, I'm not really buying.
The the big difference with the Kincaid stuff is, is the price,
right? Like the guessing is free and
ground most drafts in Kincaid. You're paying a pretty big
premium for that thesis, Chris. It was great having you come by
dropping the bombs on ship chasing and drafting.
That the chat was saying that that me and me and Pat were
arguing too much and not letting you talk to me.
Definitely were. We were we.
I missed last two shows. 22% route rate last year, OK20.
Is that what you didn't do? July 4th show I missed?
I missed the two shows before. Me and Pat haven't done a show
in a month like we needed to get this out.
I'm sorry. He's like we were.
We weren't arguing, but to that point.
Yes, we definitely didn't give it, Chris, enough time.
And let me tell you why, because you're wrong.
It was a blast of you, man. No, man, this is awesome.
And you guys ever want me back on again?
Just say the word. This is this is for sure.
And you got the the second part of the Does Wind Matter is
dropping in the Fantasy Life newsletter tomorrow.
Anything else that you're working on right now?
Trying to dig into so a focus on wind.
I got that pretty much knocked out.
I want to now start digging into the other elements.
Rain, snow, all of that, to see really what matters.
And it's almost the same questions you have to ask about
wind. Instead of just saying, well, is
there going to be wind in the game?
It's how much. So if it's going to be raining,
how much? Back to the monsoon talk we had
earlier, and the same thing for snow.
People see or hear snow in the forecast.
They think about what was it the?
What was the Philly Detroit game from Gosh, when was that
20/13/2014 And it was, gosh, I forget the Who's the?
Oh, man, Cut on a dime is his Twitter handle.
Lashawn McCoy. Lashawn McCoy, thank you.
Oh, my gosh, Why couldn't I? Think yes, I remember that game.
Long touch. That in overtime.
Yeah, but everybody remembers that stuff or the what the Frank
Gore game from the Bills Colts from.
I forget that was probably like five or six years ago where they
had to like, you know move snow out of the way for Indianapolis
kicker that retired to kick a field goal.
Vinitary. Yeah, to kick a field by at the
end. So it's like that stuff we
remember, but it really is like it really does come down to how
much and also where at that makes a difference than
anything. Remember that there was a
Jaguars rain game. That was nuts.
I think someone, some running back had like, really long run.
I don't know. It's always stuck with me.
The. No, that was oh man.
When was that, too? That was fairly recent, if I
remember right. Or maybe that was in the, like,
early 2000s, but yeah. I I do.
Chris, we should, we should talk with Jordan and the crew at
Fantasy Life because I think an El Nino article would do great
SEO within this hyper. Yeah.
It really would like, I would like 100% read the El Nino
article, yeah. All you need is El Nino and
Fantasy in the title and you're. Yeah.
And then everybody's gonna wanna read it, yeah.
It comes around like what, once a decade or something?
Yeah. Like five to seven years or
something like that if I mean that sounds like 2 to 7, two,
two to seven, which is like a wild range because every other
year or every seven years, OK. With like the title, like El
Nino is going to change everything for 2023 fantasy
football. Yeah.
And it's just going to have that that clip from Chris Farley and
SNL and that's like they're pretty much like the the
entirety of the piece. Exactly.
So make sure you guys are following Chris on Twitter at
Chris Allen, FFWX for the audio listeners.
We got it up here on the screen. I got it down in the
description. Also be sure to check out all
this great stuff over at Fantasy Life.
We even have new. Author pages over there as well.
So it's really easy to check out the Chris Allen page and you can
go and find all of the work he's been doing, both writing the
newsletter and some of these more intensive research pieces.
And a lot of fun best ball stuff.
I will say Chris, when I initially saw this article come
across best ball draft phases because you were doing weather
stuff, I saw phases. And immediately went to Moon
Phases. I thought you were doing
something like with that. Should I had them do like, if we
could do it? Have like the what?
The Marvel character. Moon Night and just like put
that on the thumbnail for the piece or something like that.
See, that's that's a good idea. All right.
Yeah. There there it is.
I love it. We need it.
We need it all. All right.
Appreciate the chat tonight. You guys were on fire as well.
Gretch, I did see JGFC wants you to put an alert in the Discord
when you're drafting on the. Party weekend this weekend.
Oh, God, yeah. Well, try to remember to do
that. If I'm doing lives, I don't know
how the whole weekend's gonna go, and I'm doing some golfing
and I'm gonna do some drinking. But yeah, I mean, if I'm that's.
Why He wants to know when you're hopping in draft.
Plus TV. Yeah.
But Pat, what do you got going on?
Well, I wanna tell people I'm gonna be doing a long stream.
My plan is to do 7 drafts with 18 guests.
On July 18th, which is next Tuesday.
So still organizing that I've given myself a little bit of a
project management task, but I'm working on getting that
together. Do you wanna planning on doing?
That day, Yeah. Why does that day matter?
Yeah. It just seemed like a cool thing
to do. That's the that's the date that
I drafted by winning BBM Three team.
So there you go, bringing some friends on.
I guess on here, maybe one time or two when I filled in you guys
drafted. Are you nervous about being a
hosting drafting bro? No, I mean, when you're nervous,
it's because you're worried that.
What's going to happen isn't gonna live up to your
expectations of what's gonna happen.
And I know this is gonna shit show, so why would I be?
Nice. Well, I just want you to know
there's gonna come a point during the draft.
You're gonna have a guy you want to take, and your cohosts are
gonna be screaming that they'd rather take a luxury pick at the
time and you're gonna want them to actually just vocalize who?
That that will just take this. Pick I'll just.
I want that. I scream.
I'm on stick and shout out to King Cat too, who also drafted
his winning team on. 718 the the Red.
Very nice. Yes, so it is going to be a best
ball holiday over there. And yeah, for me tomorrow,
tomorrow night, Jake Trowbridge from Fantasy Life is joining me
for the randomizer. Jake's very funny, does a ton of
impressions and characters, so we're going to have a good time.
Over there tomorrow night. I think that is it for the
plugs. If you guys want to become a
YouTube member, you can hop in the Discord.
Always a fun time there in the ship chasing Discord.
Hope you guys all have a wonderful rest of your week.
Thanks again to Chris. We'll see you guys next time.