1 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:07,560 Week 5 is behind us and Best Ball Bros rejoice as their 2 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:12,240 advance rates skyrocket with the ultimate Saquon Barkley floor 3 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:19,240 week. This is stat chasing Pat Fryer 4 00:00:19,240 --> 00:00:22,320 Helmo. This is what This is what I'm 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,360 Pat. Anita Handjob. 6 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:25,920 Fix your side. Jamar. 7 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:32,320 Alpha play Chase. Tony, you can't handle the heat. 8 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:34,080 It looks like we're finding this voice. 9 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:43,080 You're right. Yeah. 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:45,520 Huge, huge Saquon Barkley floor game. 11 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,920 We all got marked safe from Saquon Barkley in Week 5. 12 00:00:49,480 --> 00:00:53,840 Yeah, we also got Mark Safe from Alvin Kamara in Week 5 as well. 13 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,400 That was because I absolutely jammed him on the Showdown 14 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:00,200 slate. I had something like 42% Alvin 15 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,120 Kamara, captain, so he was destined to dud there. 16 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:05,880 So you're all welcome for my sacrifice. 17 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:12,120 Yeah, much, much appreciated. I I'll be honest, I feel a lot 18 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:15,600 more comfy about my Camara fate than I do Sequan. 19 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:21,240 Yeah, yeah, the as far as like in this specific outcome, what's 20 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:23,000 gonna hurt me the most this year? 21 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:26,200 I'm not super worried about the Kamara fade right now, 22 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,000 Definitely concerned about the Saquon fade. 23 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:34,680 But I think I think my best ball teams have signs of life right 24 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:36,960 now. So that's encouraging. 25 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:41,600 I mean, we had the Rashi Rice funeral last week, but now we, 26 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,920 we've officially got confirmation Rashi is out for 27 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,520 the rest of the season. We, we can just chalk that up to 28 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:53,320 it's two seasons now between the injury rehab and then the 29 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,520 inevitable suspension coming back next year. 30 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:57,880 So. Last Nail is now in the coffin. 31 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:02,160 He's not punching through. There will be no revival, no, 32 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:06,840 which is very unfortunate as a man who just watched, you know, 33 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:10,280 the rough equivalent of a Toyota Corolla of Rashi Rice. 34 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:14,960 Teams get totaled, so the process was fantastic. 35 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:18,720 Though Draco, yeah, we we'll always have the process. 36 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:23,200 Yeah, All right, let's get into some charts. 37 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:30,160 So here this is our quarterback chart and we've got three 38 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,840 different metrics here. So we've got expected fantasy 39 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,400 points from passing, which is kind of like our our metric for 40 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:40,120 quarterback passing volume. We've got our adjusted yards per 41 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:45,840 attempt, our metric for passing efficiency and then the size of 42 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:49,800 the bubble corresponds to rushing yards per game. 43 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,200 So then we have that. We kind of have all tree 44 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,840 components of of quarterback scoring captured shoot on. 45 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,240 Yeah, there were. There were a couple guys that 46 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,240 stood out to me. The the first one, I think we 47 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:08,600 just have to go over two weeks ago, you started pounding the 48 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,760 table for Burrow as a really strong regression candidate. 49 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,760 And then last week specifically, we called out that the match up 50 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,800 was really good. He was in a strong position on 51 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,360 the chart to be a candidate for positive regression. 52 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:23,960 And I mean, all the stars were aligning. 53 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,160 And that's not to say that we were the only ones on Joe 54 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:29,000 Burrow. I'm pretty sure everyone in 55 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:31,400 their mom was on Joe Burrow last week. 56 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:35,880 But I do think it's important to kind of highlight the process 57 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:40,560 and like how we got there so that we can systemically go 58 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:43,480 through that and and see if we're able to identify spots 59 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:47,080 like that exactly. So I I went through, I went 60 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:50,760 through my notes from from last week and the big things I had 61 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:55,840 kind of noted was like, Hey, his O line is playing well and he's 62 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:58,760 on. So he's he's his A dot is solid, 63 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:01,360 but he's underperforming on touchdowns. 64 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:06,240 Then we all then we also kind of noted that Baltimore are like a 65 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:10,840 big pass funnel. So like to me, tell me if you 66 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,240 disagree, but to me, those are all kind of like the, the, the 67 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,680 big markers to look for. And we got all of them last 68 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,440 week. And it was like, you have to be 69 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,000 blind to miss. That I think is what you're 70 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,720 getting at. Yeah, if if you had a checklist 71 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:29,360 for things I'm looking for in my ideal quarterback matchups, all 72 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:35,040 the boxes we checked last week for Joe Burrow, so you know, it 73 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,360 was a smash spot. He was my highest own 74 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:41,000 quarterback and the dog bowl and I played a ton of him in DFS 75 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:42,000 too. I. 76 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,920 Unfortunately, I don't, you know, the the thing about 77 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,160 repeating and Joe Burrow, I like. 78 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,240 That's such a fantastic spot. The weeks where we get that are 79 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,040 going to be few and far between. Right, right. 80 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,680 Yeah, It's not. It's not every week that the 81 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,800 stars absolutely align for a quarterback. 82 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,720 If you made me pick the guy, there's a couple spots this week 83 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,920 that I think are like the best spots for quarterbacks on the 84 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:14,840 main slate. The one I I've I've I've a a 85 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:17,800 choice as well, but I actually don't remember. 86 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,280 Oh no, I remember. Do you do you want to go first 87 00:05:21,280 --> 00:05:25,320 or do you want me to go first? I can, I can go 1st. 88 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:30,160 And so it's, it's like I said, there's, there's not the, I 89 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:33,280 don't think any of these guys are going to be perfect because 90 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:37,680 Joe Burrow was perfect. I kind of like Stroud and I 91 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:43,280 think he's been kind of like buried because of the Nico 92 00:05:43,280 --> 00:05:48,360 injury, but Diggs and Dell are still very, very, very good pass 93 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:52,000 catchers. He's another one where his his A 94 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,960 dot is good. His yards per tent are good, but 95 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:58,080 the the TDs have just been a little bit low. 96 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:02,240 I think he's basically been neutral on touchdowns and like I 97 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:05,480 know like that's like, Oh well, his expected touchdowns are 98 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:10,360 right in line, but it's fucking Cesar Stroud like he he should 99 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:12,040 actually be efficient on touchdown. 100 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:16,320 So to me that's like kind of like a sneaky and regression 101 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:22,760 spot and the I guess, and that the reason it's not a good 102 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:24,280 borough. They did lose Nico. 103 00:06:24,280 --> 00:06:26,320 They're not quite as pass happy as the Bengals. 104 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:30,040 Their online isn't as good and but they are Ram. 105 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,720 It does look like they're playing a a pass funnel. 106 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:36,440 Yeah, in the in the Patriots, right. 107 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,880 And the Patriots did just lose. Gosh, I'm trying to remember 108 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:43,520 which defensive back it was. The name is escaping. 109 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,640 Oh, the the guy who punched his girlfriend. 110 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:49,760 Yeah, yeah, along with myriad other issues. 111 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:53,200 But yeah, he was, I believe he was arrested. 112 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:55,720 So he he will not be playing this next week. 113 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,360 Now here's so there's a couple things because I've I've thought 114 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:03,160 through this Texans and Patriots match up quite a bit because I 115 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:04,920 don't know if you've heard, but Drake May is starting. 116 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,680 So it is one of the lowest total games on the week. 117 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,040 It may in fact be the lowest total game on the week. 118 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:14,080 I think the over under is like 38 1/2 the last I looked. 119 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:18,400 Now, now hang on though, 'cause I'm, I'm here to the, the total 120 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,360 wasn't necessarily meant to be cold water on the match up. 121 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,920 Because this we, we had a spot earlier this year where we 122 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:28,560 talked about, hey, this is a place where you can attack some 123 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:32,720 input volatility because right. And, and I I think this Patriots 124 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,440 situation is really right for that opportunity. 125 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:37,240 We don't have data on what The Patriots. 126 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:37,640 Yeah. How? 127 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,720 Yeah, how you gonna model what the Patriots look like with 128 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,120 Drake May at the helm? And and especially their defense 129 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,160 is worse than it has been these last couple weeks just cuz 130 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:52,440 they're missing pieces. You get Drake May maybe, maybe 131 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,040 they're willing to pass a tiny bit more with Drake May than 132 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,440 Brissett. I mean, I don't think that'll be 133 00:07:57,440 --> 00:07:58,600 their game plan. Oh, we win. 134 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:03,120 We, I mean, we saw Drake May in the preseason and like he looked 135 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:07,240 way better than Brissett, right? Like the the the there will be 136 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,680 positive improvement I think. Yeah, I think. 137 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,560 I think you do you. Do honestly have the potential 138 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:16,040 here for something that looks like The Jets game, the, the, 139 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,680 the Patriots Jets game where Houston is just like all over 140 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:24,920 them and and the the Patriots don't get anything going against 141 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:26,920 what seems like a pretty good defense. 142 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:31,720 But yeah, we we have no idea how good the sorry, I don't want to 143 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:35,120 say we have no idea. We we have a very imperfect idea 144 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,480 of of how good that the Patriots offense will be with me. 145 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:41,840 Right. And I I think that the path that 146 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:46,640 you have there to this game going substantially over is you 147 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,440 need the Texans to be able to put up points and push the 148 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:52,960 Patriots and really, really force them to not be comfortable 149 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:54,400 sitting back and running the ball. 150 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,680 And you also could get there without the Patriots getting 151 00:08:57,680 --> 00:09:01,840 pushed quite as hard if May just goes out and immediately shows 152 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,640 like really, really positive things passing the ball. 153 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:06,800 You know, the the Patriots coaches. 154 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:11,800 I mean, the the incentives here were really interesting to think 155 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:13,600 through prior to them starting May. 156 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:17,240 Because I really think that if you think through this 157 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:21,480 logically, Jerrod Mayo was incentivized to start Jacoby 158 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:26,200 reset as long as he felt he could without starting Jacoby 159 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:29,280 Brissett being something that is going to jeopardize his job. 160 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,200 If that makes sense. Because the Jacoby Brissett 161 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:34,800 games are basically like a wash. They're they're considering 162 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,960 those like, well, we can just throw, throw those out. 163 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,080 Those say nothing about your ability to coach the team. 164 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,440 The plan was never Jacoby Brissett, right? 165 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:44,120 You throw those results out like you said. 166 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,120 Right. And so if you just if you just 167 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:50,120 assume that, hey, you know, Jerrod Mayo's job is safe 168 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:55,080 through X number of games, you know, assuming a a win loss 169 00:09:55,080 --> 00:10:00,920 record of whatever with Drake May well delaying when the the 170 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,240 clock starts on that is very much in his bet. 171 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:06,840 You know, the guy's making six figures every additional game. 172 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:11,480 He coaches like it is very much in his best interest to push the 173 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:15,040 clock back as long as he can. But now that he has May 174 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:19,400 starting, the incentive changes a little bit because the games 175 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:23,760 need to be better now, like if things have to improve now the 176 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:27,000 clock is starting. And so I think he might like if 177 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:31,080 May can go and show something, he might be willing to shift 178 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,160 away from being quite so run heavy, provided that there's 179 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,760 something there. So really interesting spot. 180 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,720 You can get the Texans pass catchers way too cheap right now 181 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:47,240 on on double wrap. Yeah, like like tank, tank Dell 182 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:50,080 you can get at the 4-5 turn pretty consistently and same 183 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:52,400 with. So you can get a Dell Stroud 184 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:55,640 stack at the 4-5 turn. Like very very. 185 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,840 I I saw that Stroud was very cheap. 186 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,920 I was checking the ADP on him and I was like, yeah, that 187 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:02,720 doesn't make any sense. Right. 188 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:06,000 So I, I, I like that whatsoever. I like that spot for sure. 189 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:11,080 I've been attacking it. The one that I had as someone 190 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:14,480 that was a good spot to target one of the three highest game 191 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:18,360 totals on the week, I believe is Jordan Love and the Packers 192 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,440 against the Cardinals. So this one I think is 193 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:25,960 interesting just because we had the really big Jordan Love game 194 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,880 two weeks ago against the Vikings in a big trailing script 195 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:32,520 where he just has to drop back and Chuck it up and do the Brett 196 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:37,880 Favre impression right. Then this last game, he really 197 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:41,120 he just doesn't get there because of a lot of dantevion 198 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,000 Wicks drops. You know, a a ton of meat got 199 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,720 left on the bone. Granted, there were some 200 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:51,240 uncatchable targets too, but it's like I I think that what we 201 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,760 saw there was just like the variants going the other way for 202 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:58,000 a guy who's leaning into a a higher variant style. 203 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:00,920 He he's a deep passer like Jordan Love is consistently 204 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,960 attacking down the field. That's why he still hasn't 205 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:07,320 adjusted yards per attempt as high as he does even without 206 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:11,600 connecting on a lot of those like so I think you're in a good 207 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,760 spot for love. He's also like if you look where 208 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,400 he's at on the chart, he's in a similar place to where Joe 209 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,640 Burrow was on the chart before he had his big explosion game. 210 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:25,240 It's not quite as good a spot as, you know, the the Bengals at 211 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:28,600 the Ravens, but I do think it's a pretty good spot. 212 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:33,080 And also, I think with Romeo Dobbs coming back, that only 213 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,720 helps him. I don't think Dobbs like I think 214 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,600 it's a little it'd be ridiculous to say that getting Dobbs back 215 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,080 on the field is a net negative for the team. 216 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:44,920 Like I don't think that anyone really believes that. 217 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:49,080 So I'm I'm interested in love here in a bounce back spot. 218 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:53,760 And last week you could barely ever get him very far past the 219 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,240 2-3 turn. You're taking him in the mid to 220 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:57,680 early third round of the dog bowl. 221 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,480 Now you can consistently get him in the fourth round. 222 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,680 You could probably push him to the fifth in some drafts too, 223 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:06,840 but I think it's a pretty good spot. 224 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:12,720 I think the the some of the differences between him and 225 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:17,080 like, I know we're comparing to perfection here is I think the 226 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:20,800 Cardinals are like this are kind of like a bit of a run funnel. 227 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:24,600 The Packers have been pretty neutral on on on pass rate over 228 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:29,600 expected and with love. So trying out those Willis 229 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:33,560 games. And so I think to get there, you 230 00:13:33,560 --> 00:13:36,840 do need, you do need them to be pushed. 231 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:41,680 You need the Packers to be pushed unless you get crazy, 232 00:13:41,680 --> 00:13:44,920 crazy good efficiency. I think you need some 233 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:48,840 combination of like, I don't think the underlying volume in a 234 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:52,080 neutral game strip is is necessarily going to be there 235 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:58,400 and almost hasn't been. And but like Jordan Love is is 236 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:00,000 he's like the archetype of player. 237 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,080 I think what you're getting at is the archetype of player that 238 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,760 you're always going to be interested in in GPPS. 239 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,520 You just like that. You've got a little bit of a tin 240 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:13,320 part to get there. I think it can certainly hit and 241 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,760 and it sounds like that's that that tin part is like more than 242 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:23,000 baked into into cost. And but I guess that's kind of 243 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:25,280 the stuff I noticed. Yeah, I'm looking at the 244 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:29,120 Cardinals past defense numbers and this is this is one week 245 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:31,440 stale of data. This is just what Pat had put 246 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,240 together in his walkthrough article over on Leg Up. 247 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:38,800 But the Cardinals pass defense is 29th in EPA per drop back, 248 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:41,600 32nd in drop back success percent. 249 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,240 They're this is this is the one that actually stuck out to me 250 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:46,480 when I was looking at this earlier. 251 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,000 They're 31st in time to pressure. 252 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,960 And that was one of the big things that Pat wrote up last 253 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:56,640 week about the Rams being really slow to pressure and how that 254 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,280 was a really good thing specifically for the match up 255 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,720 for Jordan love. So I think it, it kind of sets 256 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:07,960 up to be like, hey, this is like a pretty comparable really poor 257 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,880 pass defense to the Rams. And we just love the spot for 258 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:15,000 love versus the Rams. And it, it just didn't, you 259 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:16,640 know, we didn't get the huge nuke. 260 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,440 And so people are off of it now. And it's like, you can go right 261 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,880 back to the well, it's honest. I mean, like I'm looking, I'm 262 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,360 looking through all these metrics like Cardinals. 263 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,200 Well, teams just haven't. The thing is, teams have not 264 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,160 been throwing it against them. They've been run heavy. 265 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:37,000 I wonder how much that like my, my question is how much of that 266 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:41,320 is like, hey, they're running this out of the pass or maybe 267 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,040 they're just playing very run heavy teams. 268 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,720 Yeah, that's a good point. I mean, the 49ers did absolutely 269 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:49,920 carve them up through the air though. 270 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:54,080 And you, you got a little bit less Jordan Mason last week, so. 271 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:58,080 So they they played the Bills. So that is a run heavy. 272 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,520 Team that's a team that they don't know what the pass is, 273 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:05,480 they've forgotten. And you've got the Rams where 274 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:08,280 the Cardinals just beat the out of them. 275 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:15,120 So like maybe control that out. You've got the the lines and 276 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:16,760 they. Do running the ball. 277 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:19,120 Right. Then you've got the commanders 278 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:24,080 who put 42 upon them. And I mean the 49ers, they got 279 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:32,080 23 and points against them and, and, and actually the 49ers and 280 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,720 then and the, and the commanders, they they were 281 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,240 slightly password over expected positive. 282 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,480 And so maybe some of maybe some of those numbers that I was 283 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:46,320 citing are are just from playing the the Lions and who who was 284 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:47,680 our first team. The Bills. 285 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:53,960 To the bills and so yeah, maybe maybe I'm I'm off there and I 286 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,680 still think they don't profile as a team that goes trose super 287 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:01,800 heavy. But like I'm I'm caveating that 288 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:05,800 with like Jordan love is always going to be a good for the rest 289 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:07,400 for the rest of his healthy careers. 290 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:12,319 Always go when he's cheap, will always be a good GPP play like 291 00:17:12,319 --> 00:17:15,720 he just will be. Yeah, I think you're just really 292 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:21,119 hoping that the the game, if the game goes off, all the all the 293 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:25,359 ingredients are there. But we definitely can see, you 294 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,840 know, you can see how it doesn't get there through James Conner, 295 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,920 you know, just chewing up clock and the Cardinals being happy to 296 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:35,840 do that. So moving on to other 297 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:39,480 quarterbacks here on the chart, this was OK. 298 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,800 So these are two where they're not super sexy. 299 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,760 Neither of them have had massive games recently. 300 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:50,840 One of them was actually in a pretty big shootout recently, 301 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:52,800 and his numbers got a little inflated for that. 302 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:55,880 And they still were just OK. But they're both right next to 303 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,280 each other on the chart, and they play each other this week, 304 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,400 and that's Jared Goff and Dak Prescott. 305 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:03,400 This one's really interesting to me. 306 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,240 I mean, the Cowboys have been just absolutely atrocious on 307 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:08,840 defense. They looked a little bit better 308 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,240 against the Saints, but I think that might just be the Saints 309 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,800 more. Yeah. 310 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:22,480 And so I think maybe people like have too short of a memory on 311 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,480 how bad the Cowboys. Defense is I actually mixed up. 312 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,720 You say the the the the Cowboys looked better against the 313 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:29,840 Saints. Oh, I'm sorry. 314 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:33,960 I, I, I don't know why I said the Saints there, but I had the 315 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:35,840 Saints in my mind from last night, from. 316 00:18:36,120 --> 00:18:38,080 Watching that. Oh OK, OK, that's why. 317 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,440 But they did look better. Yeah, they they did look a 318 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:47,880 little better, but sorry the Steelers same run heavy boring 319 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:49,200 ass team. Yeah. 320 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,600 But anyway I I think people might just be forgetting how bad 321 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:58,920 the Cowboys defense is after after watching one game where 322 00:18:59,120 --> 00:19:02,760 they were OK. My question I I think there's 323 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:07,680 another one where you need the Cowboys to push the lines. 324 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:09,960 Yeah, absolutely. The, the Lions are going to be 325 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:14,000 so happy to hand the ball off and, and just like pound it into 326 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,520 the, the, the Cowboys like that's, that's their ideal way 327 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,280 for this game to go. Yeah, if I had to rank the the 328 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,480 games as far as like which one is going to be more likely to 329 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,760 have that big shootout potential, it'd definitely be 330 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,640 Packers Cardinals much higher than this Cowboys Lions one. 331 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,360 The reason I do like this Cowboys Lions 1 though, is that 332 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:38,360 when the Cowboys push the Lions, the Lions have a good offense 333 00:19:38,360 --> 00:19:41,200 and they're willing to throw the ball when necessary. 334 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:44,920 So I, I mean, it's definitely a spot where you need the Cowboys 335 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:49,400 to be scoring points. So to me it probably reads like 336 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,920 maybe you play it through Dak Prescott and have Lions bring 337 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,160 backs because the Lions are probably. 338 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:58,960 It's just hard to. Goff would need to really 339 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,080 monopolize all the touchdowns to get there. 340 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,560 'Cause you know, even even if the Lions are losing, like 341 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:06,080 they're still gonna involve their backs. 342 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:10,280 So I think it's probably a play it through Dak Prescott angle. 343 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:14,200 But then like bring, bring Lions bring backs in in a pretty heavy 344 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,920 way if you're doing it 'cause I think if Dak is getting there, 345 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:19,920 the game is probably going off. So I don't think this is one 346 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,600 where you want to just do like a Dak CD skinny stack like the the 347 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,840 Lions are not going without a fight on this one if the Cowboys 348 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,440 make it competitive. Right, right. 349 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,320 I think on the other hand, we did just get a game where 350 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:39,240 Dallas, I think this was against the Saints, where Dallas did get 351 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:43,840 the get beaten up by the Saints and then that Prescott got there 352 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,520 in kind of garbage time. Yeah, that's true. 353 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:51,760 So yeah, I guess that's just you've got like the two ways for 354 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,840 for good outcomes for DAC and it's it's just a lot thinner for 355 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,320 golf, right? Because even when when the game 356 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,160 goes well for Goff, that might not even be that great a thing. 357 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,840 If he plays well, his volume will be low. 358 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,200 Yeah, yeah. Which is a problem. 359 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:09,280 So yeah, I think, I think I'd probably prefer DAC here, but I 360 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,360 think it's an interesting spot. Yeah, yeah, for sure. 361 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,200 I mean, the game. The game of the week, though. 362 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,720 It is these two behemoth quarterbacks here in the top 363 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:23,160 left hand corner of the chart, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels 364 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,560 facing off. I mean, if there's any game that 365 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:31,240 was going to challenge the the Ravens and Bengals game for the 366 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,720 most enjoyable game of the season to watch, this one seems 367 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,320 like it could be pretty fun. I mean, both these guys have 368 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,920 been ludicrously efficient. Like when you look at these 369 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,080 adjusted yards per attempt, these guys have been incredible. 370 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:45,880 And it's it. It's also showing. 371 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,600 We already talked about last week what a what a good pass 372 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,640 funnel the Ravens are. Yeah, and, and the, the 373 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,520 commanders are definitely not, they're not an imposing defense 374 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,960 either. So yeah, you've got a, you've 375 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:00,840 got a really good situation here. 376 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,080 And, and the tape lines up with what the numbers are saying too. 377 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,440 Like when you watch both of these guys, it's very clear that 378 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,840 they're very talented passers. Lamar is making these incredible 379 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,720 out of the pocket off platform. The the throw where he literally 380 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,840 he leaves his feet and throws an absolute dot to Isaiah likely. 381 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,640 Like it's literally just all arm talent. 382 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:27,360 Like Lamar Jackson is making throws that like, I mean, this 383 00:22:27,360 --> 00:22:29,920 is like vintage Aaron Rodgers type stuff. 384 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,280 Like, you know, the stuff that where people would just glaze 385 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:37,600 Aaron Rodgers forever about what incredible arm talent he no one 386 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,440 else in the league can make a do you just simply no one has an 387 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,400 arm like this man. Like, OK, well, Lamar Jackson 388 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,680 has that arm now and I feel like it's going under appreciated. 389 00:22:48,120 --> 00:22:50,280 So I'm I'm pretty into Lamar this week. 390 00:22:50,360 --> 00:22:54,960 My my big problem is he goes really early in dog bowl drafts. 391 00:22:54,960 --> 00:23:00,120 He's like 4th or 5th pick overall, so it's kind of hard 392 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:01,880 for me to want to play it through Lamar. 393 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:05,360 Meanwhile, Jaden Daniels goes basically in the same spot on 394 00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:07,560 the board, but in the second round. 395 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,760 So I kind of think like. If if I, I just looked it up, 396 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,040 Jaden Daniels is like pick 14 or 15, right? 397 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:21,800 So that's like 2O22O3. He he'll in the in the dog, 398 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,960 though, he falls into the middle of the second round. 399 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,920 The the AD PS are all set by the six man drafts. 400 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,600 And so it's just different in the the 12 man drafts and how 401 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,000 they they shake out. But he'll usually go in the 402 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:34,320 middle of the second round there. 403 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,680 And so it it's often lining up to where the Lamar drafter and 404 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,440 the Daniels drafter are and. So where did where did Jayden 405 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,000 Daniels go like last week? I think he was going earlier in 406 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:43,480 that. Round he was. 407 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:49,360 No, he's going early in the week he was going like 2-3 turn, I 408 00:23:49,360 --> 00:23:52,160 want to say. And then by the end of the week 409 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,280 with projections out and everything, he was going like 410 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,040 closer to 1-2 turn. So yeah, a little, little 411 00:23:57,040 --> 00:24:02,560 earlier. Because what now I did, I do 412 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:08,400 want to note, I think I, I, I remember saying about Daniels 413 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:12,120 that his like one of his issues is as as a mobile quarterback, 414 00:24:12,120 --> 00:24:16,320 his time to TRO is like high, despite the kind of low A dot. 415 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,680 And that might be an issue against them. 416 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:23,840 A really good Browns pass rush. So here's his time to throw it 417 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,720 for full season or for weeks. 124 is like 3 seconds. 418 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,800 It's just 2.3 against the the Browns. 419 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:35,440 And so like to me, like the Browns kept them in check last 420 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:39,280 week and so kept keeping them in check is like 20 points. 421 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:43,440 Yeah, so. Yeah, your ceiling there was 422 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,840 really good. Yeah, I I definitely like it a 423 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:50,040 lot. The the like only the only 424 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,720 caveat I have to just jamming the 100% Jayden Daniels this 425 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:58,040 week is that because of all the bye weeks, the slate gets pretty 426 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,760 thin that the skill position players like especially running 427 00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,960 back when you get later. And so if you're taking a 428 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,640 quarterback in the 1st 2 rounds, you just, you need to have some 429 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,280 guys that you're comfortable scrolling down for to be able 430 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:14,200 to, to make that work, I think. That makes sense. 431 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,120 That makes sense. And, and, and, and there's a 432 00:25:16,120 --> 00:25:18,080 bunch of guys that we talked about that we're interested in. 433 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,880 Yeah, we will definitely hit on some later tonight as well. 434 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:29,080 One, one other guy that I, I really like and he he's showing 435 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:33,040 up in a pretty good spot on the chart is Baker Mayfield, who's 436 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:34,880 absolutely free in dog bowl drafts. 437 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,080 You can get him fifth, sixth round every time, basically 438 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,920 playing against the Saints indoors. 439 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,720 I mean the Saints. And the the the Tampa Bay they 440 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,240 like to pass this year. Yes, yeah. 441 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,240 And you're saying he's his volume is good, he's playing 442 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:55,040 well, concentrating the passing attack the way he is and he's 443 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,240 getting volume? And their their preferred way to 444 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,560 do it is the death by 1000 cuts ways they're not doing as much. 445 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,120 Right. It's like 6 yard A dot. 446 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,800 Yeah, they're not. It's not as deep as Baker was 447 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,520 throwing last year when it was literally just like, all right, 448 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,480 it's Mike Evans and we we live and die by Mike Evans. 449 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,480 Now. It's been a little bit shorter 450 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:18,520 in general, but I mean, it's working pretty well. 451 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,320 Baker's been really efficient. So I really like this spot. 452 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:27,360 You just saw the Saints get destroyed by Juju Smith Schuster 453 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,040 from the slot. You know, like Juju Smith 454 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:34,160 Schuster and the ghost of Travis Kelsey, who, you know, to his 455 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,040 credit went out there and put up a vintage Travis Kelsey game. 456 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:42,560 But man, I mean, if you pull off the name plates and you show me 457 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:46,160 Travis, Kelsey and Zach Ertz you know, side by side, it's, it's a 458 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:50,000 little hard to distinguish physically what's going on, you 459 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,400 know? Yeah, yeah, Kelsey has 460 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,880 unfortunately given us a prime Zach Ertz season. 461 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,040 Yeah, but he he does. He knows where to be. 462 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,280 He knows knows where to find the soft spots in the zone and sit 463 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:05,480 down and so and there's no one else on that offense. 464 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,160 So he's he's going to be effective. 465 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,560 But but back to Baker. So you get this defense that 466 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:15,040 just got absolutely torched by little to no talent from the 467 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,520 past catchers on the chiefs and Baker's been very good and Mike 468 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,400 Evans and Chris Godwin have been very good. 469 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,000 I mean, this is like a all systems go spot for me. 470 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,720 Like I'm good with Baker double s. 471 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,320 I if you, if you told me that you could get a Baker triple 472 00:27:29,360 --> 00:27:32,840 where you got, you know, Mike Evans, second round, Chris 473 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,160 Godwin, third round, someone else, fourth round, Baker 474 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,280 Mayfield, fifth round, K dot and sixth round. 475 00:27:38,360 --> 00:27:40,200 I'm into it. I think that's pretty good. 476 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,920 I think they're going to score enough points and you're getting 477 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:48,160 them all cheap enough that you're basically just saying, 478 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:52,280 like if I hit on the first round player that is, is a, you know, 479 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,440 weak winner, then I'm doing pretty good and the rest of the 480 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,840 guys are just gonna score enough to get me up to the top. 481 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:01,320 Not him. Yeah. 482 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:02,800 That makes sense. That makes sense. 483 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:08,840 I mean, it's tough to say Baker Mayfield in like a GPP, but like 484 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,680 he's a he's a good play. He's just a good, he's going to 485 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,440 be a good solid play all year. And this is like, this is a good 486 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:18,000 spot for him. The if I if I was going to pour 487 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,680 cold water on this spot, it would be that the Saints aren't 488 00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,600 functional on offense without Derek Carr, not that they looked 489 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,120 particularly functional last night. 490 00:28:26,360 --> 00:28:28,920 I mean, the only thing that's been functioning for the Saints 491 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:33,440 is Rashid Shahid, who will definitely talk about here, but. 492 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:38,320 I mean, I honestly wonder though, with, with I, I, I, I 493 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,320 think Tampa Bay are like a team that does not need to be pushed. 494 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,240 They're perfectly happy to throw the ball all over you and so if 495 00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,640 you're just giving them possession after possession like 496 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,560 like that, that could end up being a lot of points. 497 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,720 Now, maybe they got pulled in the fourth quarter, but that 498 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,000 just means they've scored a lot of points to that point. 499 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:00,280 Yeah, that's a, that's a good point. 500 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:06,240 There's only one other guy I wanted to talk about here and 501 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:11,080 it's really just a, a very mild, like the most mild victory lap 502 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:14,920 you can take. But it's Bonex because from week 503 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,280 one, we talked about that Week 5 was gonna be a good spot for 504 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,600 Bonex. And while the stat line might 505 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:24,560 not be terribly impressive, 200 passing yards, 2 passing 506 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:27,920 touchdowns, and a rushing touchdown, if that had happened 507 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,760 in a week or we didn't get these absolutely nuclear quarterback 508 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:36,040 games from Lamar and Burrow, I think you probably could have 509 00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:37,720 gotten there with the Bonex team. 510 00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,720 Now granted, you couldn't really play it with any of his weapons. 511 00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,120 Yeah, I think that's the thing about. 512 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,720 Nick is like. If you play him, you have to 513 00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:46,960 play him. I was like, you play him naked 514 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:52,480 as a way to unlock a really expensive pass thing or on, you 515 00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,680 know, those DraftKings slates where it's really heavy priced. 516 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,360 It's really hard to play the players you want to play. 517 00:29:58,360 --> 00:29:59,880 You have to find savings somewhere. 518 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,680 I think that's the kind of week that you win with at Bonex. 519 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:08,800 Yeah, and, and I mean, really, I'm what my actionable take away 520 00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,440 from this is just proof of concept that Bonex could 521 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,600 technically score enough fantasy points to be relevant. 522 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,840 And like, although Cortland Sutton did not get anywhere 523 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:23,760 close to any fantasy points this week, his role in previous weeks 524 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,360 has been really good basic if you go and if you're just being 525 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,400 a box score scout, you look at the box scores pretty much every 526 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,160 week is like, wow, if Cortland Sutton had a touchdown this 527 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:35,240 week, he would have had a pretty good week. 528 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:39,760 And so the way that I'm looking at this is OK, I think this 529 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:43,120 there are situations where it might work like this could be a 530 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,120 break glass in case of emergency play. 531 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,840 And so where I'm looking at it again, the next stop on the 532 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:52,440 Bonex Express, I think for me is gonna be Week 8 when they play 533 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,880 Carolina, who has been a really fun defense to target. 534 00:30:56,520 --> 00:31:00,920 Yeah, yeah, for sure. Like, especially with the Bears 535 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,400 tearing them up on the ground. Yeah, like that. 536 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,600 Like, seems good. Seems attractive. 537 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:13,920 We got a question here. Isn't may slash plus poke a 538 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:15,960 better play than Knicks at the same cost? 539 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,240 I mean, I what's that? I wouldn't play Knicks this 540 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:20,520 week. I don't even think Knicks is on 541 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:25,560 the slate this week, but yeah. I, I, I wanted to kind of like 542 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:29,680 circle back that we did talk about at May and being like 543 00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:33,560 playable it, it's something that you could do and with the input 544 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,000 volatility at the very start of the show. 545 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:41,200 Yeah, yeah. Is is he even on the slate this 546 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:45,680 week? So while you're looking that up 547 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:52,440 at one other note I had was about Kirk Cousins, where it 548 00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,520 does feel a little bit like you're getting the play out here 549 00:31:55,520 --> 00:32:00,680 where they're just they're just letting they're letting him be 550 00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:05,240 like they're giving him the key city offense where I know they 551 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,400 they were trailing last week. So they they had to pass a lot, 552 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:10,800 but they were even pass rate there. 553 00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,960 There was part rate over expected was positive even then. 554 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,320 So he passed even more than they had to. 555 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:18,920 And then you you get the good result. 556 00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,960 So I think the thing about Kirk Cousins is you're never going to 557 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,040 get any rushing. You're not you're just not going 558 00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,920 to get any rushing. It's all going to be from pocket 559 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,160 pocket passer stuff. So you need to you need that 560 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:34,640 passing volume to get there. And like you don't want to chase 561 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:39,080 like a high passing volume, high efficiency week from pure pocket 562 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:43,360 passer. But he he, he feels pretty solid 563 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,120 as like a as a play for the rest of the year. 564 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,000 Yeah, and he's he's in an interesting spot this week. 565 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:53,800 He gets the Panthers, who have been again, a really, really fun 566 00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:57,960 defense to target. He's just he's a little priced 567 00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:02,080 up this week in dog bowl drafts. I just, I feel like going. 568 00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,040 Ahead of Kyler Murray, CJ Stroud. 569 00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:09,480 Yeah, and, and Drake London is like a back of the first round 570 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,880 pick and Darnell Mooney who has like damn near the same target 571 00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,320 share as him. And like I, I get it that if you 572 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,440 maybe pick in a vacuum, I'll take Drake London over Darnell 573 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:21,880 Mooney. But when I have to choose Drake 574 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,640 London in, you know, the mid first round or I can take 575 00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,160 Darnell Mooney in the fourth round, like I'm just going to 576 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,000 take Darnell. Like, as disgusting as that is 577 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:34,360 to say, like never thought that we would have an outcome where 578 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,440 that was something that I would say out loud, but. 579 00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,800 I don't think it's a play this week, but it's, it's just like, 580 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,360 you know, I, I, I think what we got there is pretty legit. 581 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,880 It's like it's going to be a volatile spot week to week given 582 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:53,680 his profile, but like he's you're clearly getting vintage 583 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,080 Kirk Cousins right now and the team believes in that. 584 00:33:56,720 --> 00:34:01,160 Yeah, those are all the quarterbacks I had notes on. 585 00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,560 Was there anyone you wanted to talk about or should we move on 586 00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,520 to the running backs? No, I think, I think we covered 587 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:10,320 it. We covered it most comprehensive 588 00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:15,000 quarterback review show of the week for sure. 589 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,280 And so this is our running back snaps and usage chart. 590 00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:25,480 And the green bar corresponds to rush attempts, the yellow bar 591 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:30,040 corresponds to routes. With rare exceptions, most 592 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,080 running back targets are just from running a route. 593 00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:37,080 The plan is usually not to target the running back, but the 594 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,880 play broke down and and they happened to be the check down. 595 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,560 So that's why we track that as kind of like an underlying 596 00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,360 usage. Then we also like to see who's 597 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:49,000 trusted as a pass blocker and then just around things out, we 598 00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,480 also look at run block. We don't focus on it at all, but 599 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,760 it helps us get the full picture of their of their snap count. 600 00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,720 Yeah, the the first guy, I mean, I think we have to talk about 601 00:35:00,720 --> 00:35:02,120 him. He's put up two really good 602 00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:06,560 weeks in a row after I mean, I think we I think I said that he 603 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,160 was cuttable in like week 3 or something. 604 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,560 That's DeAndre Swift. He's he's kind of risen from the 605 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:14,520 dead here. The Bears, often the only. 606 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:18,080 Thing about Swift is he actually last week he ran bad on 607 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:19,800 touchdowns. Yeah, he did. 608 00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:21,920 He got vultured twice by Roshan Johnson. 609 00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:26,120 So he was like. -9 on on on fantasy points. 610 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,760 So he was like -1 1/2 touchdowns under expected. 611 00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,920 Yeah, so. He got, he actually got goal 612 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,320 line carries, he just didn't convert. 613 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,720 And I guess that that's kind of nuance because you would, you 614 00:35:39,720 --> 00:35:42,760 wouldn't expect, you would expect him to convert those some 615 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,560 of the time and, and some of those. 616 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,560 But then when when you're missing it and and the other guy 617 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:51,000 gets it you, you do start to get concerned that maybe they start 618 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,360 giving it to the other guy more. Yeah. 619 00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,560 I mean, what are what are your thoughts on on Swift going 620 00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,400 forward? Because I think it's difficult. 621 00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:02,760 I mean for me, like in a, in a redraft home league, this is 622 00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:06,000 like a sell high spot for me, like I'm trying to trade them 623 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:07,480 away. But I'm curious on your 624 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,200 thoughts, is this something where you're kind of buying this 625 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,520 the new normal or I? Think that's a right framing 626 00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:19,040 where I think that Swift, like it's like we said last week, 627 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:23,960 this is kind of who Swift is like he's going to be somebody 628 00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:27,680 where you you do get like world beating plays where he just 629 00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,320 looks incredible. He's making guys miss, he's 630 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:35,720 taken like the touch, he's getting deep rushes and then 631 00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,120 you're going to get plays where he just looks like absolute dog 632 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,160 shit. And we've got we've gotten 2 633 00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:43,240 weeks now where he's actually looked pretty good. 634 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:48,560 But I still, I still would would expect that you're going to get 635 00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:49,960 weeks where he doesn't look great. 636 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:57,760 And like it's kind of profile is is also to not convert rushing 637 00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:03,360 touchdowns or goal line touches. And so it kind of would make 638 00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,720 sense if he was if he was to lose those. 639 00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:14,160 But I like I still think our like our projection should be 640 00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:17,920 that you get you will get good swift weeks going forward. 641 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:19,480 You just won't know when they come. 642 00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:25,320 Well, this week he does travel to London to take on the 643 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,960 Jaguars, so. What do you? 644 00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,560 Think about that spot. Well, the Jaguars are just an 645 00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:32,280 awful of that defense. Yeah. 646 00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:38,520 And so like the if a team has good run fits, it's going to, 647 00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,720 like, give him trouble. The Jaguars will not have good 648 00:37:41,720 --> 00:37:43,880 run fits. And so, like, he might actually 649 00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,920 look really good this week again, like he probably will. 650 00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:54,160 Yeah, yeah, I, I hate to say it, but I think he's probably a 651 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,400 pretty good play this week. The nice thing is he is not on 652 00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,440 the main slate. OK, OK. 653 00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:03,040 Yeah, it's like a prime time. Kind of, yeah. 654 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:07,560 I I did get, I think I mostly faded him in prime time. 655 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,560 Palooza. I got some, but I think I'm 656 00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:15,440 underweight on him. OK, You know, another another 657 00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:19,520 running back that is actually in that same game that I wanted to 658 00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,760 talk about. Really it's 2 running backs. 659 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,360 It's Travis ETN. And then of course we can't talk 660 00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,040 about Travis ETN without talking about Tank Bigsby. 661 00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:33,400 Etn's role through these this is, you know, through the season 662 00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,920 so far still looks pretty solid. He's right there with JK 663 00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,880 Dobbins, Josh Jacobs, you know, he's he's getting a decent 664 00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:45,800 amount of the work. This last game, ETN got out 665 00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:49,080 carried by Bigsby. Now he did. 666 00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:52,240 There was a shoulder injury that he's dealing with that the team 667 00:38:52,240 --> 00:38:54,640 reported. And so that could have something 668 00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,640 to do with him losing more work to Bigsby. 669 00:38:58,160 --> 00:38:59,960 But Bigsby also looked pretty good. 670 00:38:59,960 --> 00:39:04,240 He's, you know, significant rush yards over expectation, like big 671 00:39:04,240 --> 00:39:08,320 breakaway runs. So it's hard to deny Bigsby, but 672 00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:12,000 I feel like a lot of people are suffering from vividness bias 673 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,480 with this where it's like, Oh my gosh, Tank Bigsby is the one 674 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,120 that looks good right now. He's done it more recently. 675 00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:21,680 Travis ETN that bum, he hasn't scored a bunch of fantasy points 676 00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:25,000 this season yet. And I, I kind of think that 677 00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:29,120 people are just forgetting like we've, we've got a decent amount 678 00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:31,800 of sample that Travis ETN is a pretty explosive rusher. 679 00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:36,960 So I think, I think if, if you were, if you taught with high 680 00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:41,800 confidence that the touch split and the snap split from week 5 681 00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:46,480 and would just project all the way true, you wouldn't want, you 682 00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:48,480 wouldn't want to play any of these guys. 683 00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,720 It's a it's a pure tree headed committee. 684 00:39:52,240 --> 00:39:57,360 And the nice thing about Travis ETN is that he actually does 685 00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,960 have a lock on on the receiving work. 686 00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:05,360 So he does have that receiving floor and if if you buy if you 687 00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:10,760 buy the injury explanation and then it becomes closer to a 5050 688 00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:18,320 or 6040 to in his favor on the rush split, then on underlying 689 00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:22,200 usage goes back to pretty strong for Ethan and you. 690 00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:26,040 So for, for Bigsby, you have to believe that, oh, he looks great 691 00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:31,800 and therefore like he's going to get all these extra different 692 00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:39,040 outlooks or outlets to play, which I, I, I feel like maybe 693 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:42,480 his, the fact that he, he got so little of the receiving stuff 694 00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:47,880 and with, with an injury at the end, he's probably pretty capped 695 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,200 from a full season long perspective. 696 00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:55,680 Maybe ETN can go back to being like the usage that he got and 697 00:40:56,640 --> 00:41:01,280 but that it but it is tricky. Like I said, I think if that if 698 00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:05,480 that touch split committed, then you couldn't you wouldn't play 699 00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:09,360 any of them either. Any of them in a GPP like ETN 700 00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,520 will be just a bit startable in like redraft. 701 00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:15,240 Yeah, that's that's a really good point. 702 00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:20,160 There's two things that I want to talk through #1 is the 703 00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,720 passing role for ETN versus the passing role for Bigsby. 704 00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:28,200 I know that we haven't seen Bigsby be used really at all as 705 00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,200 a passer during his time in the league. 706 00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:34,760 I'm wondering if we just kind of throw out his rookie season 707 00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:38,320 'cause he was atrocious. Like the the reason why I did 708 00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,480 not draft any Tank Bigsby is because if you play this game 709 00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,600 for long enough and you draft guys like Tank Bigsby after 710 00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,960 their rookie year, you're going to lose a lot of money drafting 711 00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,480 players like tank Bixby after the rookie year that he had 712 00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,080 right. So I don't, I don't really think 713 00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,600 it's when when. They get that when they get that 714 00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:56,640 usage at the gate and they stink. 715 00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:59,160 That's bad. Yeah, I don't really think it's 716 00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:00,400 the kind of thing that you chase. 717 00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,240 It's just it's the cost of doing business. 718 00:42:02,240 --> 00:42:05,440 It's like good process tells you don't, don't draft the really 719 00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:07,760 shit players when they're given opportunity as a rookie and they 720 00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,880 do nothing with it. But when he comes in, in the 721 00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,680 second year, the coaching staff's been really vocal about 722 00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:16,600 wanting to involve him more. He's getting the work he's 723 00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:20,000 producing with it. I I'm more inclined to just 724 00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,240 throw out the whole rookie season then and say, all right, 725 00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:25,880 we're la tabla rasa. We're starting brand new here. 726 00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:30,920 And so I don't necessarily know that ETN is a block on the 727 00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:34,520 receiving work because Bixby did catch passes in college. 728 00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:36,960 It's not like it was something he was totally incapable of 729 00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:39,720 doing. Yeah, you're right, You're 730 00:42:39,720 --> 00:42:41,480 right. And he actually like he was a 731 00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,600 pretty solid right back in college, so. 732 00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,600 So that's that's one where I'm like, if I want to think through 733 00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,720 the bowl case for Bigsby, it's just that the rookie season was 734 00:42:50,720 --> 00:42:53,280 just the weirdest aberration of all time. 735 00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:58,000 And he just kind of morphs into the lead back in this backfield 736 00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,520 and ETN is more of like he spells him. 737 00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,400 I had to be clear. I don't really think that's the 738 00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,680 most likely outcome, but I I think it's. 739 00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:08,760 And I think, I think it the reason I, I, I sort of like 740 00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:13,800 suggested it's unlikely is because if ETN is injured and he 741 00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:18,320 still has this lock on pack on receiving work, then that's not, 742 00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,320 that's not great for Bigsby. Like even when he's looking good 743 00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,240 when they're trying to showcase him more and he's still not 744 00:43:24,240 --> 00:43:26,560 touching that. Like that's something that would 745 00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,680 have to evolve pretty dramatically from here forward. 746 00:43:29,720 --> 00:43:32,240 And what, what you're saying is, hey, that can happen. 747 00:43:32,720 --> 00:43:34,000 Like he was a good receiving back. 748 00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:35,840 That can happen, I think is what you're. 749 00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,880 Saying, yeah, but but your point about the injury is actually 750 00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,080 dovetails with my second point, which is this is extremely 751 00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:43,800 small. We're trying to we're trying to 752 00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:49,000 parse the way that the humans on the Jaguars coaching staff think 753 00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:53,040 through and handle workload in the face of injury for their 754 00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:55,040 running back. So we're not going with a ton of 755 00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,160 data here. We're really, really working off 756 00:43:57,160 --> 00:44:00,440 small stuff. But I got tricked earlier by 757 00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:04,240 this coaching staff with how they handled an injury to Bigsby 758 00:44:04,240 --> 00:44:11,120 earlier this season where Bigsby got injured and he is eerily it 759 00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:12,600 was actually his shoulder as well. 760 00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,680 So both these guys have had these shoulder injuries this 761 00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:16,440 season. Bixby gets injured, I believe 762 00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,280 it's in Week 2. Andrews his shoulder doesn't see 763 00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:21,560 the field on offense for the rest of the game. 764 00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,320 However continues to play special teams. 765 00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:29,800 I read that coming out of Week 2 as like injury didn't actually 766 00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:31,920 mean anything in this game. Yes, he left the game with a 767 00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,600 shoulder injury, but if the injury was that serious you 768 00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:36,920 don't put the guy back out on the field for special team 769 00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:38,840 snaps. Like, you got someone else that 770 00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:42,880 can do special team, you know, But that was not so week three. 771 00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,600 I assumed, like, all right, it might, it might just be they're 772 00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:47,160 done with Bigsby. They're tired of it. 773 00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,320 D Ernest Johnson's coming back to take the job like he did last 774 00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,440 year. And so I thought Week 3, we 775 00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:55,960 might see D Ernest Johnson usurp Bigsby in a running back 776 00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:58,000 hierarchy. There wasn't the case. 777 00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:02,400 The Jags coaching staff really did just, I can't explain why, 778 00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,200 but they they had more information about the situation 779 00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:08,120 than I did. But they decided we certainly 780 00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:11,880 cannot put the sky on the field for another snap in the game in 781 00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:13,720 Week 2. And he injured his shoulder 782 00:45:13,720 --> 00:45:15,240 early. It wasn't like, oh, he injured 783 00:45:15,240 --> 00:45:17,320 in the third quarter and then didn't see any more snaps. 784 00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:21,320 He saw zero offensive snaps after the shoulder injury saw, 785 00:45:21,720 --> 00:45:24,520 you know, a handful of, you know, there were only a handful 786 00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:25,960 of special teams snaps to be had. 787 00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:29,480 He saw them, though, in the second-half of that game. 788 00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:34,200 So then you get this same kind of similar treatment with the 789 00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:38,520 ETN injury where and ETN is obviously not a special teams 790 00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,560 player, but they're like, all right, we still need you to do 791 00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:43,480 this role. We need you to do the pass 792 00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:46,400 catching stuff because like that's actually what we really, 793 00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,960 you're not as replaceable here, but in the running game, we view 794 00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,240 you as more replaceable here. We're going to go ahead and let 795 00:45:52,240 --> 00:45:53,760 Bigsby do more of that this game. 796 00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,560 That's kind of the way that I'm reading it here. 797 00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:59,760 I think a lot of it has to do with the injury and I I just 798 00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:02,400 want to try and take what I've learned from how this coaching 799 00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:07,040 staff has treated a similar but not identical situation earlier 800 00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,840 this season. And I want to try and apply that 801 00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:11,320 context. This situation. 802 00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:15,120 So seems like a really good sell high spot for Tank Bigsby if 803 00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,480 you're in a home league and you have them like this is a smash 804 00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:21,880 sell spot for Bigsby. And then yeah, like what you're 805 00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:25,680 saying is it's not really a like how you gonna how you gonna play 806 00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:28,840 either of these guys in AGPP going forward? 807 00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:33,080 Like the requisite ceiling is just like it's really hard to we 808 00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:36,680 just got the ceiling outcome for Bigsby and yeah, it was a great 809 00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,640 game, but it like that's the ceiling. 810 00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:43,720 You know it was right 2020 some odd fan low 20s fantasy points 811 00:46:43,720 --> 00:46:45,360 like woo Hoo, you know like. Right. 812 00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:49,800 You got 13 carries and and like he he gets 100 what, 101 yards 813 00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:53,920 with them. Yeah, or something like. 814 00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:57,400 That moving on to another running back. 815 00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:00,360 We have a question in the chat. That's also a note that I had 816 00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:03,560 here. Pollard looks like the smash of 817 00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:05,400 all smash spots this week versus the Colts. 818 00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:08,000 Is he a target for me and his Spears viable and the Dog Bowl 819 00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:10,800 are too thin. Yeah, Pollard's definitely one 820 00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:14,200 that I'm interested in. When I set my rankings for the 821 00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:18,440 Dog bowl prior to any like public projection sources being 822 00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:20,680 out. I do have Pollard in a spot 823 00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:23,240 where I will definitely draft some of him. 824 00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,280 I, I haven't gotten a ton of him so far 'cause I, I think kind of 825 00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:31,320 the market is frothy on Pollard. Two, people just want to attack 826 00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:33,560 this cult spot. It's not a state secret or 827 00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:36,320 anything. So I just think it's, it's like 828 00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:39,120 there's not as much meat on the bone as we want to be there 829 00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:43,600 'cause people, it's not a, it's not sneaky, you know, But I do 830 00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:47,600 think it's a good spot and I do actually really like Spears. 831 00:47:47,600 --> 00:47:53,840 I, not to blow my, not to blow my own stuff up, but I, I've 832 00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:56,520 been taking Spears in the last round, like with the last 833 00:47:56,520 --> 00:48:00,440 overall pick on some of these teams, just cause running back 834 00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:04,840 gets really gross late. And I mean, yes, Pollard's 835 00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:10,120 favored in getting the workload, but you certainly it would not 836 00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:13,640 be out of the question for Taje Spears to score more fantasy 837 00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:15,360 points than Tony Pollard in a given week. 838 00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,800 You know, like stranger things have happened. 839 00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:20,640 So I, I, I think it's a pretty good spot. 840 00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:23,640 What do you think about it, Jerko? 841 00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:29,080 Yeah, I I agree. It's like particularly in the 842 00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:32,320 fourth game and against the Dolphin or Week 4 game against 843 00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:36,920 the Dolphins, they were a lot closer in in rush attempts than 844 00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:41,520 than in prior weeks. So I I guess earlier in the 845 00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:46,160 season, Pollard was the like the strongly preferred rusher or, or 846 00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:52,040 that's how they deployed it. Some of the coach speak being 847 00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:54,800 that like they kind of see it closer to 5050 and then getting 848 00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:57,360 an outcome where it actually is 5050. 849 00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:02,880 I think. Yeah, I I like, especially if 850 00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:06,440 you're getting a fraud. If it's fraudy prices on on 851 00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:10,480 Pollard, then you you probably do prefer to play that True, 852 00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:14,360 true Spears. Spears is free like Pollard will 853 00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:19,200 be 100% drafted. Spears will go maybe, maybe 854 00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:24,160 forty, 3040% drafted unless projections really love him. 855 00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:28,360 In in A10 running back week and like what, 8 of them kind of 856 00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:30,040 what you're hoping for is a breakaway run. 857 00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:32,800 Right, yeah. And I, I think this is a pretty 858 00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:36,920 good spot to go after that one. One thing I'm looking up right 859 00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:42,720 now is I want to see the the total number of rushing attempts 860 00:49:42,720 --> 00:49:45,960 in each of those weeks. Because I kind of think that the 861 00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:50,440 way they might be divvying up the workload is, hey, when we're 862 00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,800 really just hammering it on the ground and establishing the run. 863 00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,800 We do want to take a little bit of the work off of Pollard's 864 00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,280 shoulders. And that's why they got it a 865 00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:01,880 little closer to 5050 just cause the rush volume. 866 00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:05,080 Yeah, it was. So 22 attempts for Pollard, 15 867 00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:06,520 for Spears. OK. 868 00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:10,000 And do you do you see how that compares to their other? 869 00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:23,480 So yeah, week 1 was 16 to four, Week 2 was 17 to six, and then 870 00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:29,800 it was six to two in Week 3. Yeah. 871 00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:32,200 So definitely their highest, their highest volume week for 872 00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:33,120 sure. So yeah. 873 00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:36,120 Yeah, easily their highest volume week, but I do think they 874 00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,280 want to be. It does feel like they want to 875 00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:43,800 be closer to maybe like a 6040 time like. 876 00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:48,160 Yeah, I mean, really what that tells me, though, is that in the 877 00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:51,480 outcomes where you're getting the game to play out the way you 878 00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:53,640 want it, the Titans are rushing a bunch, right? 879 00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:55,280 They're productive on the ground. 880 00:50:56,040 --> 00:50:58,640 It's coming through, you're getting a lot of volume and then 881 00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:00,760 it's coming more even on the back. 882 00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:02,920 So the. Increase actually goes to 883 00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:05,480 Spears. Most of the Pollard in attempts 884 00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:08,880 goes to Spears, yeah. Pollard is much better in when 885 00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:11,000 both backs are gonna hit a median outcome. 886 00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:14,840 Pollards median is much higher than Spears, but when you get a 887 00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:17,680 ceiling outcome here, I think their ceiling outcomes are 888 00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:21,760 probably a lot closer and they're probably also not quite 889 00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,920 as negatively correlated as we might think just because their 890 00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:28,320 ceilings are coming through substantially more volume. 891 00:51:28,720 --> 00:51:32,080 And then I haven't seen the reports on if Levis is going to 892 00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:35,840 play this week or not. But I mean, gosh, I would I 893 00:51:35,840 --> 00:51:39,760 would think that regardless of who's playing, like the the 894 00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:43,520 reason Levis didn't come back in was certainly injury against the 895 00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:46,040 Dolphins. But you have to think that the 896 00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:48,760 coaching staff was kind of breathing aside, they weren't 897 00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:51,840 slow to make that switch to Mason Rudolph, right? 898 00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,920 They're like, oh, thank goodness, an opportunity to put 899 00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:57,880 someone other than Will Levis out there because Will Levis has 900 00:51:57,880 --> 00:52:00,400 already done some stuff where Brian Callahan looks like he 901 00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:03,480 just wants to do the, you know, Homer Simpson throttling Bart 902 00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:05,760 thing to him when he's leaving the field. 903 00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:08,040 So. And, and the game plan for 904 00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:10,600 playing, yeah, the Colts is pretty like the Packers laid 905 00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:14,880 that out pretty good, yeah. Yeah, I, I really like this 906 00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:16,400 spot. The, the more that I think about 907 00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:19,040 it, I'm I'm kind of into, I'm into playing both. 908 00:52:19,240 --> 00:52:23,360 If you right there, there's actually 2 spots this week where 909 00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:25,600 I'm like, I'll play both running backs from the same team and 910 00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:27,520 it's the Lions and the the Titans. 911 00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:29,440 I think. I don't think anyone's going to 912 00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:31,400 do that, and I think it's pretty. 913 00:52:32,240 --> 00:52:35,760 You mean boat on the same team? Oh wow. 914 00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:39,680 And like but it's a dog bowl on A10 running back week. 915 00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:45,640 Yeah, there's only so there's 5000 ish total entries in the 916 00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:48,640 tournament. Like it's not that massive of a 917 00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:52,680 field. You know, I definitely think and 918 00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:56,600 based on just the game totals so far, like from from what's out 919 00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:59,960 right now from Vegas, like there's three really good games 920 00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:03,000 and then there's a lot of stuff that's just not quite as 921 00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:05,200 exciting. So it might just be a slate 922 00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:09,800 that's a little bit lower scoring and really like so the 923 00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:13,520 Lions 1 is is harder. The more that I think through it 924 00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:18,880 because it's like for both the Lions backs to get there just by 925 00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:22,200 the nature of the ADPS, you exclude yourself from some of 926 00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:24,720 the best game scripts. Like you're not going to get 927 00:53:24,720 --> 00:53:28,760 Jaden Reed, then you're not going to get Lamar or Daniels. 928 00:53:29,000 --> 00:53:32,280 Maybe you can sneak in a Terry Mclaurin or as a flowers to get 929 00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:35,000 access to that game. You know, maybe you could sneak 930 00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:36,760 in a Marvin Harrison to get access. 931 00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:40,960 You could do like a Jalen Tolbert or a a Jameson Williams. 932 00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:44,920 So or while you you've got the Lions to occupy the Cowboys 933 00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:48,120 game. So, yeah, I I don't know, it's 934 00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:52,200 AII think it's probably a better idea for the Titans just because 935 00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:56,800 Spears is free and Pollard is is cheap enough that you know 936 00:53:56,800 --> 00:53:58,960 you're not paying, you're not. The opportunity cost is much 937 00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:01,360 lower. Right, right. 938 00:54:03,240 --> 00:54:10,760 Another another guy who is, you know, in a pretty good workload 939 00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:15,920 situation that I I think could be an interesting spot here is 940 00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:19,120 JK Dobbins. I really, I'm really interested 941 00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:20,880 in your opinion on this one because I couldn't decide if it 942 00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:23,800 was a really good play or, or just kind of stupid. 943 00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:27,440 So it's it's into the Broncos who have a really good defense 944 00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:29,640 on paper. I went back and looked at the 945 00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:32,680 Broncos matchups. They played a bunch of teams 946 00:54:32,720 --> 00:54:34,880 that can't really run the ball successfully. 947 00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:37,960 Like the best running back they faced was Breece Hall. 948 00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:43,080 But that was in that like super, you know, monsoon game and The 949 00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:47,240 Jets offense just looked absolutely terrible, like, I 950 00:54:47,240 --> 00:54:51,480 mean, entirely ineffective. So the Broncos did not. 951 00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:55,320 Embarrass the Tampa Bay Bucks. They absolutely embarrassed 952 00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:56,600 them. They they did, yeah. 953 00:54:56,600 --> 00:55:00,360 They they stopped the worst running back in the NFL Handily, 954 00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:02,520 Yeah. And what's what's interesting 955 00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:07,400 about Tampa Bay, though, is they they're if you look at their 956 00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:12,200 ESPN and run block success rate, it's actually like really good. 957 00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:14,960 Like let me let me let me pull this up. 958 00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:19,960 They they're run. Sorry, maybe really good is a is 959 00:55:19,960 --> 00:55:23,040 an overstatement. It's at 14 in the NFL. 960 00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:27,680 So it's like that that's they're solid and. 961 00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:33,040 Yeah. It's not like they have like 962 00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:40,440 this cupcake and what you call it online and then the 963 00:55:40,440 --> 00:55:46,040 underlying metrics for for for the Denver Broncos, they're like 964 00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:48,360 9th in the NFL for a run stuff, right? 965 00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:54,640 So like I think like obviously they have beat up on on like 966 00:55:54,640 --> 00:55:57,840 some of the worst offenses, but I think there's enough there 967 00:55:57,840 --> 00:55:59,920 that they're like probably pretty legit. 968 00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:05,080 Yeah, no, I I mean, the the most likely thing is the Broncos are 969 00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:07,520 a good defense both against the pass and against the run. 970 00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:10,280 They are really they're really good against the pass. 971 00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:12,800 Like I, I don't, I don't think it's disputable that they're 972 00:56:12,800 --> 00:56:16,800 good against the pass, right. So I'm just wondering, I mean, 973 00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:18,560 the Chargers want to lean into the run. 974 00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:21,080 They're coming off the bye what they're saying. 975 00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:24,920 About the bye is do you think there's any chance we get like a 976 00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:31,240 Vidal like rookie bye week bump? Maybe, but I I don't think it's, 977 00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:37,040 I mean, to me, that's like more along the lines of copium from, 978 00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:40,760 you know, nerdy fantasy football players than it is anything that 979 00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:44,920 Harbaugh is likely to. Actually Harbaugh and Greg Roman 980 00:56:44,920 --> 00:56:47,440 are like JK Dobbins is the fucking man. 981 00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:51,840 Like how what they spent the bye week on was watching the JK 982 00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:54,680 Dobbins breakaway runs and like, how do we get more of this? 983 00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:59,360 Like I just I don't know that they were if anything, you're 984 00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:03,400 just going to get like maybe you get Vidal coming in and taking a 985 00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:05,800 couple Gus Edwards touches instead. 986 00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:08,800 But I really don't think it's going to hurt Dobbins workload 987 00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:09,240 at all. It's going. 988 00:57:09,240 --> 00:57:11,080 To eat into Dobbins. Yeah, that. 989 00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:13,040 That's pretty fair. That's pretty fair. 990 00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:17,920 And so the the warts on the frog here are you got Rashawn Slater 991 00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:21,760 and Joe Alt, who are both listed as questionable when I checked. 992 00:57:22,280 --> 00:57:24,120 Now, you know, it's early in the week. 993 00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:27,840 So this is just a situation I want to monitor if both of those 994 00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:30,200 offensive lineman are healthy for the Chargers. 995 00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:34,120 This is a spot where I think I'm just going to say, you know 996 00:57:34,120 --> 00:57:36,000 what? JK Dobbins has shown us the 997 00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:39,960 explosive plays before. And sure, like the, you know, 998 00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:45,200 the Broncos have looked pretty good against the run, but it's a 999 00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:47,840 spot where I'm interested in testing it on a weak running 1000 00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:51,280 back slate where JK Dobbins goes undrafted, you know, he gets 1001 00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:54,800 drafted occasionally. Like his is is he's way under 1002 00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:58,600 drafted versus his use of metrics is what that's what 1003 00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:01,080 you're getting at, right? Yes, and it's. 1004 00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:04,600 Like, do we really respect the Broncos defense that much that 1005 00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:07,440 we're like, oh, this is unplayable, right? 1006 00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:09,800 It's not unplayable. It's certainly not unplayable. 1007 00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:13,160 So that's that's kind of how I'm, I'm thinking through it. 1008 00:58:14,840 --> 00:58:18,320 Let's see the other notes I had on running back. 1009 00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:25,320 OK, so the Romandre benching, yeah, I guess rumors of his 1010 00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:28,440 demise have been greatly exaggerated because it was not 1011 00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:30,840 really a benching. It was basically the exact same 1012 00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:32,640 role that he had every other week. 1013 00:58:33,400 --> 00:58:37,560 So. This the the only thing for 1014 00:58:37,560 --> 00:58:41,480 Romandre where Antonio Gibson had more routes than him. 1015 00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:45,600 So like he he he is their he is their rusher. 1016 00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:47,320 He is their lead rusher, no doubt. 1017 00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:51,440 But he went from like in in the first couple of weeks, like 1018 00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:55,360 Romandre had way more routes than than Antonio Gibson. 1019 00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:59,600 And then it's sort of getting closer to even and and and last 1020 00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:03,200 week Gibson had more routes like I'll be interested to see if 1021 00:59:03,200 --> 00:59:06,760 that continues. But that was the one kind of 1022 00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:11,920 like usage node where like like if if you're looking for Drake 1023 00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:16,840 main to kind of unlock the offense, maybe maybe Antonio 1024 00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:18,800 Gibson gets more of the benefit of that. 1025 00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:25,880 And but they certainly it. I guess the other way to look at 1026 00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:28,480 it is if Reminder is their preferred rusher and they start 1027 00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:31,200 scoring touchdowns, he's probably going to get a good 1028 00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:33,200 bunch of those. Yeah, I think. 1029 00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:36,640 I think just for we're going to talk about the Patriots a decent 1030 00:59:36,640 --> 00:59:39,520 amount, I'm sure because Drake May is starting. 1031 00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:44,360 But I think with the Patriots, the analysis, really it should 1032 00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:47,560 be something where we keep it pretty simple and broad and not 1033 00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:49,320 try to get overly granular with this. 1034 00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:52,520 Because there's a lot of spots where you know you get a 1035 00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:55,760 systemic change in the offense and people are too quick to try 1036 00:59:55,760 --> 00:59:59,040 and like 0 in on this is the way it's going to go. 1037 00:59:59,560 --> 01:00:02,520 And instead I like to take a rising tide, lifts all boats, 1038 01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:06,240 approach on, stuff like that. And say, hey, Drake May is in 1039 01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:07,920 the offense, it's going to look functional. 1040 01:00:08,440 --> 01:00:10,360 They're going to have the opportunity to score more 1041 01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:12,680 points. And if we think about this 1042 01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:15,400 probabilistically, every Patriots player has some 1043 01:00:15,400 --> 01:00:17,200 probability of scoring a touchdown. 1044 01:00:17,720 --> 01:00:21,160 And I'm just saying that all of those probabilities have 1045 01:00:21,160 --> 01:00:23,680 increased a little bit because. They're yeah, yeah, no, that's 1046 01:00:23,680 --> 01:00:26,920 pretty fair. My, my, I guess my, my, my base 1047 01:00:26,920 --> 01:00:32,440 kind of point is him losing the routes last week is a 1048 01:00:32,440 --> 01:00:35,960 significant development, potentially significant 1049 01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:38,920 development. And if it continues, it does put 1050 01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:41,680 a big game a big tap on his upside. 1051 01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:43,480 The rest of the way, yeah, absolutely. 1052 01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:49,720 OK, let's see, I think the next guys I had notes on were on the 1053 01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:51,720 backups chart. Was there anyone else you wanted 1054 01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:53,600 to talk about on this chart before we move on? 1055 01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:58,240 And no, no, I think we already talked about Gibbs and 1056 01:00:58,240 --> 01:01:00,400 Montgomery. They're scratches, yeah. 1057 01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:03,400 So we can we can move to the next chart. 1058 01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:10,440 So this one, yeah, this one, Rico Dowdell is the one that I 1059 01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:14,480 really wanted to highlight. You finally get the game where 1060 01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:19,800 the Cowboys seemingly understood that Rico Dowdell is far and 1061 01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:23,920 away our best rusher, which is has always been clear. 1062 01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:25,920 Now, there's an interesting thing. 1063 01:01:25,920 --> 01:01:32,080 The Cowboys changed their run scheme this game and it seemed 1064 01:01:32,080 --> 01:01:37,800 to be a lot more successful. So I'm, I'm hopeful that they 1065 01:01:37,800 --> 01:01:41,280 stick with that and I, I think that could bode really well for 1066 01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:45,960 Dowdell going forward. Now they did lose Tyler Smith to 1067 01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:50,200 injury in this game and I haven't seen how serious that 1068 01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:51,960 injury is. So that's a little bit 1069 01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:55,520 concerning. But overall, I, I think it's 1070 01:01:55,520 --> 01:02:00,240 hard to take away anything but really bullish sentiment for 1071 01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:04,800 Dowdell after this game. I mean, the if, if you're 1072 01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:07,560 wanting to throw cold water on it, the, the cold water is that 1073 01:02:07,560 --> 01:02:11,720 the Cowboys kind of suck and the offense looks much worse than it 1074 01:02:11,720 --> 01:02:15,440 has in recent years. And so, you know, the cold 1075 01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:18,240 waters, there's just not as many touchdowns for, for the running 1076 01:02:18,240 --> 01:02:19,880 back there. So the role's less valuable. 1077 01:02:19,880 --> 01:02:24,120 But I still think it's if he, if he drafted Rico Dowdell in 1078 01:02:24,120 --> 01:02:26,880 basketball and you're freaking out up to this week, I think 1079 01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:32,320 you're breathing a huge sigh of relief because if you get 3-4 1080 01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:35,960 games with this type of role from him, he's absolutely 1081 01:02:36,440 --> 01:02:40,120 smashing his cost. And if the role like this 1082 01:02:40,120 --> 01:02:43,840 continues for the rest of the season, you're you're absolutely 1083 01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:45,960 cooking. And then you also have the house 1084 01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:49,600 to maybe the Cowboys get their shit together just like they did 1085 01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:53,080 last season after their bye week and doing some self scouting. 1086 01:02:53,080 --> 01:02:58,240 So definitely encouraging there any any thoughts on Dowdle and 1087 01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:00,840 his role as the as the season progresses here? 1088 01:03:02,800 --> 01:03:06,200 So I guess it's important to note. 1089 01:03:06,200 --> 01:03:09,640 So this is the fourth week in a row where he's led the Cowboys 1090 01:03:09,640 --> 01:03:13,400 and carries and but this is the first week where he just 1091 01:03:13,400 --> 01:03:16,640 completely clear and away obliterated the other guys. 1092 01:03:17,640 --> 01:03:22,880 And so I think they're thinking about if if we had just one week 1093 01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:26,200 where they gave him a lot of carries, it'd be like it'd be, 1094 01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:28,720 it'd be harder to like put a lot of stock in it. 1095 01:03:29,040 --> 01:03:36,000 But now that we have 4 weeks in a kind of in a row and and as 1096 01:03:36,000 --> 01:03:39,480 they actually rushed more, it consolidated to Rico. 1097 01:03:39,880 --> 01:03:44,640 So as they as the game plan became to run more consolidated 1098 01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:48,440 to him, that feels like pretty decently strong signal. 1099 01:03:50,280 --> 01:03:54,200 And I mean, obviously with a running back, you'd like the 1100 01:03:54,200 --> 01:03:56,520 Reds to come as well. Those are curious. 1101 01:03:57,000 --> 01:04:01,920 Still split kind of like three ways and but pretty positive 1102 01:04:01,920 --> 01:04:05,240 development. And then games where the Cowboys 1103 01:04:05,240 --> 01:04:08,560 do run a lot, it does seem like he's going to get the majority 1104 01:04:08,560 --> 01:04:12,400 of those, which you're like you're I think you hit the nail 1105 01:04:12,400 --> 01:04:14,800 on the head at the cost. You're pretty happy with that. 1106 01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:19,480 Yeah, the the other, you know, good indicators there deuce fawn 1107 01:04:19,480 --> 01:04:22,840 healthy scratch Cowboys are done the the nepho baby deuce fawn 1108 01:04:22,840 --> 01:04:24,600 experiment. Wow, fun. 1109 01:04:24,600 --> 01:04:27,920 I I, it was super fun to watch the deuce fawn college 1110 01:04:27,920 --> 01:04:29,960 highlights. It was very heartwarming to 1111 01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:33,040 watch his dad get to, you know, draft him for the Dallas 1112 01:04:33,040 --> 01:04:36,160 Cowboys. Yeah, the the nepho baby deuce 1113 01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:39,160 fawn stuff is over. Unfortunately seems like a 1114 01:04:39,160 --> 01:04:43,160 wonderful human. Unfortunately got dealt a shitty 1115 01:04:43,160 --> 01:04:46,520 genetic lottery card because he's really really. 1116 01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:53,000 Small then we are we all wish we had NFL there level of genetics. 1117 01:04:53,960 --> 01:04:57,440 That's that's true. So yeah, Deuce, Deuce, healthy 1118 01:04:57,440 --> 01:05:00,760 and active, what what they really look like they're doing 1119 01:05:00,800 --> 01:05:04,160 is what exactly what they described in the offseason where 1120 01:05:04,440 --> 01:05:06,240 it's going to be running back by committee. 1121 01:05:06,240 --> 01:05:07,720 They're going to use all these guys. 1122 01:05:07,920 --> 01:05:10,600 Turpin's going to be involved back there, which he was. 1123 01:05:11,960 --> 01:05:14,720 Zeke is going to be involved, Dowdell's going to be involved, 1124 01:05:14,920 --> 01:05:18,040 Lipke's going to be involved. So all those guys are involved, 1125 01:05:18,040 --> 01:05:21,640 but finally they're, they're starting to be like, OK, no one 1126 01:05:21,640 --> 01:05:23,200 else is actually all that productive. 1127 01:05:23,200 --> 01:05:26,040 They did give CD Lamb a, a carry out of the backfield. 1128 01:05:26,040 --> 01:05:29,360 So I would expect stuff like that to continue. 1129 01:05:29,720 --> 01:05:33,440 But I, I think it's, it's consolidating enough on Dowdell 1130 01:05:33,440 --> 01:05:34,880 that you're, you're pretty happy with it. 1131 01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:42,160 Yeah, yeah, completely agree. Is he is he playable in like the 1132 01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:44,440 dog bowl format this week? Because I've been toying around 1133 01:05:44,440 --> 01:05:48,880 with with taking him, but I'm really not certain about it. 1134 01:05:48,880 --> 01:05:51,640 He's he's relatively undrafted. You basically get him in the 1135 01:05:51,640 --> 01:05:55,920 last round. That that feels like a step too 1136 01:05:55,920 --> 01:05:57,800 far. It's pretty thin, right? 1137 01:05:57,800 --> 01:05:59,440 Like the? It's pretty tin. 1138 01:06:00,120 --> 01:06:02,640 I I like. Like what kind of scenarios do 1139 01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:04,960 you see Rico Dowdell getting 20 carries? 1140 01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:08,040 Right. Yeah, I, I think it's, I think 1141 01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:11,640 it's pretty tough. I just think the ceiling games 1142 01:06:11,640 --> 01:06:15,160 happen too infrequently. And I also think the ceiling's 1143 01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:17,360 probably not that high. So it's like. 1144 01:06:18,120 --> 01:06:20,520 Right. Yeah, probably not like. 1145 01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:22,320 Jason Dobbs is better is a better play. 1146 01:06:22,600 --> 01:06:25,360 OK, that's a that's actually really good insight. 1147 01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:29,080 What about Taje Spears? Yeah, I think he's a better, 1148 01:06:29,280 --> 01:06:31,040 Yeah, he's a way better play. OK. 1149 01:06:31,360 --> 01:06:33,520 OK. All right. 1150 01:06:33,520 --> 01:06:34,960 That's that's good insight there. 1151 01:06:36,240 --> 01:06:37,680 All right. We talked about this last week. 1152 01:06:37,680 --> 01:06:42,840 I just want to hit it again so listeners can avoid this and and 1153 01:06:42,840 --> 01:06:46,080 have this little bit of alpha, but when Joe Mixon is out, you 1154 01:06:46,080 --> 01:06:49,960 do not play Cam Acres. Even in your home leagues, don't 1155 01:06:49,960 --> 01:06:51,520 play Cam Acres. It's not Cam Acres. 1156 01:06:51,520 --> 01:06:53,960 It's Daria Goombawali. OK there. 1157 01:06:54,120 --> 01:06:56,920 Daria actually got more work than Cam Acres this week. 1158 01:06:56,920 --> 01:06:58,880 He's getting the passing game stuff too. 1159 01:06:59,400 --> 01:07:01,800 Listen, Cam Acres is a is a psyop. 1160 01:07:01,880 --> 01:07:03,480 He's not. He's not real. 1161 01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:06,440 He doesn't exist. He's just he's just out there. 1162 01:07:06,440 --> 01:07:09,920 They they literally make fake stats up for Cam makers. 1163 01:07:09,920 --> 01:07:13,240 They put them in the box score. It's just like they they do 1164 01:07:13,480 --> 01:07:16,840 random number generator under 3 yards per carry. 1165 01:07:16,960 --> 01:07:19,160 Here's the Cam makers stats. Let's just throw those in there 1166 01:07:19,480 --> 01:07:22,960 so. So here, here's here's the one 1167 01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:25,560 for you, Diary. Aguna Balle. 1168 01:07:25,560 --> 01:07:29,760 I probably said that Wrong had more than twice the expected 1169 01:07:29,760 --> 01:07:32,680 fantasy points as Cam makers in Week 5. 1170 01:07:33,840 --> 01:07:39,920 He actually had 17 expected points in Week 5 versus 8 for 1171 01:07:39,920 --> 01:07:44,960 rare and count makers. Man, Draco, sometimes we know 1172 01:07:44,960 --> 01:07:47,680 Ball and it just feels so fucking good. 1173 01:07:48,080 --> 01:07:51,520 God, I mean, I'm, I'm more proud of the Daria Goombawali call 1174 01:07:51,520 --> 01:07:53,600 last week than I am the Joe Burrow call. 1175 01:07:54,720 --> 01:07:56,760 I feel like we nailed that one and. 1176 01:07:56,880 --> 01:07:58,960 Yeah, we did, and we definitely did. 1177 01:07:58,960 --> 01:08:01,880 I wish I had money. I wish you had won a dog bowl 1178 01:08:01,880 --> 01:08:05,960 seat. But we too, we got the process 1179 01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:07,240 win. Got it. 1180 01:08:07,880 --> 01:08:10,920 I know I told you this, but I'm just gonna you you triggered me. 1181 01:08:10,920 --> 01:08:13,200 I'm just gonna bitch on the on the airwaves here. 1182 01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:16,640 Just needed one. Tyrone Tracy touchdown 1. 1183 01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:19,000 Javonte Williams touchdown any of those. 1184 01:08:19,240 --> 01:08:22,399 They both had multiple opportunities for that Bonex. 1185 01:08:22,960 --> 01:08:27,439 Bonex vulturing. It was I, I guess the the most 1186 01:08:27,439 --> 01:08:30,080 painful way for it to go for me because I was talking about how 1187 01:08:30,080 --> 01:08:32,000 Bonex might be a viable play in week five. 1188 01:08:32,000 --> 01:08:34,640 And then he vultures the touchdown that would have sent 1189 01:08:34,640 --> 01:08:37,200 me to the dog bowl if Javonte just got it in. 1190 01:08:37,399 --> 01:08:41,240 By the way, on the play where he does get that Bonex 1 yard 1191 01:08:41,240 --> 01:08:44,800 rushing touchdown sneak, they were lining up and it really 1192 01:08:44,800 --> 01:08:47,279 looked like they were going to do a Javonte Williams run and 1193 01:08:47,600 --> 01:08:49,880 then the play gets blown dead. I can't remember if it was a 1194 01:08:49,880 --> 01:08:53,000 timeout or a substitution or what, but then the next play is 1195 01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:56,840 the Bonex sneak. So there's that. 1196 01:08:57,479 --> 01:09:01,120 All right, back to actual stuff is helpful. 1197 01:09:01,160 --> 01:09:06,439 Yeah, OK. I know your notes said about 1198 01:09:06,439 --> 01:09:09,439 Roshan eating into swift goal line, such as I think we touched 1199 01:09:09,439 --> 01:09:13,399 on that where we like we're on watch for that we are on watch. 1200 01:09:13,439 --> 01:09:17,160 For that, I wanted to talk about Chase Brown though. 1201 01:09:18,160 --> 01:09:23,600 So Chase Brown finally getting more opportunities than and we 1202 01:09:23,600 --> 01:09:26,120 can actually go to the efficiency charts now for this. 1203 01:09:28,399 --> 01:09:31,920 OK, Chase Brown getting more opportunities than Zach Moss. 1204 01:09:32,279 --> 01:09:35,399 You can see him, he's right on the line there, just barely 1205 01:09:35,399 --> 01:09:39,040 breaking into the 10 to 15 expected fantasy point category. 1206 01:09:41,000 --> 01:09:44,040 I don't believe Zach, oh, Zach Moss is on this chart now. 1207 01:09:44,040 --> 01:09:46,040 This is this is what is interesting to me. 1208 01:09:46,279 --> 01:09:49,840 Zach Moss had been getting more opportunities than Brown. 1209 01:09:50,120 --> 01:09:52,279 That's flipped. If you look at the size of their 1210 01:09:52,279 --> 01:09:56,280 bubbles too, Zach Moss has been less efficient than Chase Brown 1211 01:09:56,280 --> 01:09:59,480 with those opportunities. If we really think this is a 1212 01:09:59,480 --> 01:10:01,640 changing of the guard type situation. 1213 01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:05,440 Also, you've got the Moss ankle injury too, where that could 1214 01:10:05,440 --> 01:10:07,280 lead to more Chase Brown playing time. 1215 01:10:07,840 --> 01:10:11,880 I mean, not to not to get too simplistic with it here, Draco, 1216 01:10:11,880 --> 01:10:15,920 but what if I just simply transpose the location on the 1217 01:10:15,920 --> 01:10:19,760 chart of Zac Moss and Chase Brown, but Chase Brown gets to 1218 01:10:19,760 --> 01:10:22,600 keep his efficiency. I mean, that seems pretty good 1219 01:10:22,600 --> 01:10:25,960 to me. I think Chase Brown is the 1220 01:10:25,960 --> 01:10:30,560 better rusher and the Bengals recognized that now they gave 1221 01:10:30,800 --> 01:10:34,280 they gave Chase Brown and the majority of the rush attempts. 1222 01:10:34,480 --> 01:10:38,760 I don't know how much the injury played into that and but it was 1223 01:10:38,760 --> 01:10:43,440 trending to 5050 anyway. Zach Moss is clearly the 1224 01:10:43,440 --> 01:10:47,320 preferred trusted passing down back. 1225 01:10:47,800 --> 01:10:50,840 Like they asked him, they, they actually asked him to pass block 1226 01:10:50,880 --> 01:10:54,360 a decent amount. They do not ask Chase Brown to 1227 01:10:54,360 --> 01:11:00,680 pass block and he runs routes and like he gets touches that 1228 01:11:00,680 --> 01:11:06,120 way, but they, they, they just don't ask that pass blocking of 1229 01:11:06,120 --> 01:11:08,880 Chase Brown. So I think that gives some 1230 01:11:10,040 --> 01:11:14,960 security to the Zac Moss kind of like passing down role, but he's 1231 01:11:14,960 --> 01:11:18,120 pretty I think he's pretty vulnerable on on, on the rushing 1232 01:11:19,160 --> 01:11:21,880 and it's already sort of sort of the materialize where Chase 1233 01:11:21,880 --> 01:11:26,040 Brown is, is getting more rush attempts now. 1234 01:11:27,760 --> 01:11:30,760 Yeah, definitely agree with you there. 1235 01:11:31,360 --> 01:11:34,320 So I I think it's wheels all the way up for Chase Brown. 1236 01:11:35,520 --> 01:11:38,840 If you paid, if you paid the cheap Chase Brown price in the 1237 01:11:38,840 --> 01:11:41,320 offseason, you're really happy right now. 1238 01:11:41,880 --> 01:11:46,360 If you paid premium Chase Brown price, I think you're you're OK, 1239 01:11:46,360 --> 01:11:51,400 but you're not ecstatic. Yeah, I was trying. 1240 01:11:51,520 --> 01:11:54,880 So one guy I'm trying to look up here, I'm trying to look up 1241 01:11:54,880 --> 01:11:58,400 Kenneth Walker. How does Kenneth Walker have so 1242 01:11:58,400 --> 01:12:01,520 many expect receiving expected fantasy points here? 1243 01:12:01,520 --> 01:12:07,200 What is going on? That is a good question. 1244 01:12:07,600 --> 01:12:11,840 Let me. Hang on, better, better 1245 01:12:11,840 --> 01:12:15,440 question, did you know there are two Kenneth Walker, the thirds 1246 01:12:15,440 --> 01:12:18,200 in the NFL? I actually had no idea. 1247 01:12:18,200 --> 01:12:21,400 That's very interesting. Can you guess what team the 1248 01:12:21,440 --> 01:12:23,320 other Kenneth Walker the third plays for? 1249 01:12:25,200 --> 01:12:28,880 No. PFF has enlisted as a receiver 1250 01:12:28,880 --> 01:12:30,920 for the Jacksonville Jaguars today I. 1251 01:12:30,920 --> 01:12:33,880 Wow. And he's also Kenneth Walker, 1252 01:12:33,880 --> 01:12:35,080 the third. He's also Kenneth. 1253 01:12:36,440 --> 01:12:38,400 Walker the third. That's amazing. 1254 01:12:38,920 --> 01:12:44,920 And so the reason that the reason that Kent Walker has so 1255 01:12:44,920 --> 01:12:49,280 many expected receiving points is because he missed a lot of 1256 01:12:49,280 --> 01:12:51,760 games. And so then week 5 is weighted 1257 01:12:51,760 --> 01:12:55,000 pretty heavily. And then week five he had 13 1258 01:12:55,000 --> 01:12:58,760 1/2. And I think if I'm remembering 1259 01:12:58,760 --> 01:13:01,920 correctly, they trailed the Giants pretty much all game. 1260 01:13:02,560 --> 01:13:07,320 So I mean, in in trailing game scripts. 1261 01:13:07,720 --> 01:13:10,360 And I think sharps missed time too. 1262 01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:15,400 And if sharps had missed time and you saw that kind of like, 1263 01:13:15,920 --> 01:13:19,560 hey, they're trailing and then Kenneth Walker is getting all 1264 01:13:19,560 --> 01:13:22,760 this great receiving work, he'd be pretty ecstatic that he's 1265 01:13:22,760 --> 01:13:27,520 kind of like game strip proof. I think that that's what the 1266 01:13:27,520 --> 01:13:30,680 take away there is that what moneys the water a little bit 1267 01:13:31,160 --> 01:13:36,600 is, is the sharps injury. Yeah, I mean, man, Kenneth 1268 01:13:36,600 --> 01:13:40,600 Walker definitely looking like a pretty big smash here. 1269 01:13:40,840 --> 01:13:43,920 I did not think the this amount of receiving work was in his 1270 01:13:43,920 --> 01:13:48,720 bag. So if this, I mean, he's not 1271 01:13:48,720 --> 01:13:51,680 going to get 8 targets every week, you know, but if this can 1272 01:13:51,680 --> 01:13:56,280 continue even like 3 targets a week, 4 targets a week. 1273 01:13:56,520 --> 01:13:58,760 Yeah, he got 7 targets this week. 1274 01:13:59,520 --> 01:14:02,320 I I had him as 8 targets. Oh, oh, oh, sorry. 1275 01:14:02,720 --> 01:14:04,760 I I counted reception. Sorry. 1276 01:14:04,760 --> 01:14:08,520 OK, you're right. But yeah, pretty, pretty 1277 01:14:08,520 --> 01:14:11,040 incredible role. I got AI, have to be honest. 1278 01:14:11,040 --> 01:14:15,520 So I was listening to the the stealing bananas episode with 1279 01:14:15,840 --> 01:14:19,280 Ben and Sean Siegel. And Sean is has listed Kenneth 1280 01:14:19,280 --> 01:14:21,760 Walker as his overall RB1 next year. 1281 01:14:21,760 --> 01:14:25,160 They're talking about the, you know, early 2025 first and 1282 01:14:25,160 --> 01:14:28,640 second round rankings. And I, I love, I love listening 1283 01:14:28,640 --> 01:14:32,440 to Sean's takes. Like I more often than not, I'm 1284 01:14:32,520 --> 01:14:35,920 I'm with him on stuff, but every once in a while he says 1285 01:14:35,920 --> 01:14:39,920 something where I like so strongly disagree with it. 1286 01:14:41,600 --> 01:14:44,400 I so strongly disagree with it. And I'm like, that is 1287 01:14:44,400 --> 01:14:46,680 ridiculous. I'm just, I'm throwing that one 1288 01:14:46,680 --> 01:14:48,160 out. I don't even understand how he 1289 01:14:48,160 --> 01:14:51,640 got there. And then like I, I was like, it 1290 01:14:51,640 --> 01:14:55,520 was so overreactionary just off the huge, you know, 3 touchdown 1291 01:14:55,520 --> 01:14:58,680 game against Detroit. Like, that's not, it's just, you 1292 01:14:58,680 --> 01:15:02,480 know, vividness bias. Then he goes out and yes there 1293 01:15:02,480 --> 01:15:06,440 was the Sharks injury, but it's also like I did not think that 1294 01:15:06,440 --> 01:15:09,080 there was a situation where Kenneth Walker would ever get 8 1295 01:15:09,080 --> 01:15:11,800 targets in a game this season so. 1296 01:15:11,800 --> 01:15:15,320 Five last week. I I know, but I thought, I mean, 1297 01:15:15,320 --> 01:15:18,200 I just thought like that's a huge shootout against Detroit. 1298 01:15:18,200 --> 01:15:22,160 Like they're just like that game was insane, you know, like the 1299 01:15:22,240 --> 01:15:25,120 the total play volume was crazy. Like I didn't think. 1300 01:15:25,880 --> 01:15:27,960 He thought that was a high watermark. 1301 01:15:28,160 --> 01:15:31,320 Yeah, I, I, I literally thought that game against Detroit might 1302 01:15:31,320 --> 01:15:34,640 not be his highest fantasy points for the for the season 1303 01:15:34,640 --> 01:15:36,800 cuz he didn't actually have a ton of yards in the game. 1304 01:15:36,800 --> 01:15:38,240 He just had a bunch of touchdowns. 1305 01:15:38,640 --> 01:15:45,000 But man, Sean, Sean looking clairvoyant again with this 1306 01:15:45,000 --> 01:15:47,240 Kenneth Walker RB1 early prediction. 1307 01:15:47,960 --> 01:15:53,520 But that does transition me into my next point, which is I don't 1308 01:15:53,520 --> 01:15:56,560 think we're going to get any legendary running backs this 1309 01:15:56,560 --> 01:15:59,080 season. Do you think that's a a 1310 01:15:59,080 --> 01:16:02,720 reasonable assessment? No one hitting the 23 fantasy 1311 01:16:02,720 --> 01:16:04,480 points. Yeah, yeah, I think, I think the 1312 01:16:04,520 --> 01:16:08,360 RB1, the RB one season you got this year is probably not a 1313 01:16:08,360 --> 01:16:09,960 legendary season. Yeah. 1314 01:16:12,400 --> 01:16:15,240 And I, I think we can move on to the next chart because there are 1315 01:16:15,240 --> 01:16:17,600 a couple or actually, we'll, we'll stay on this one for one 1316 01:16:17,600 --> 01:16:19,840 second. Sorry, but I, I wanted to 1317 01:16:19,840 --> 01:16:22,840 highlight two of the guys that were probably two of the 1318 01:16:22,840 --> 01:16:25,800 favourites to put up legendary seasons going into the year. 1319 01:16:26,120 --> 01:16:29,760 And that's Bijon Robinson, who he can see now this is, Are you 1320 01:16:29,760 --> 01:16:34,040 ready to be depressed if you're a Bijon Robinson truther in this 1321 01:16:34,040 --> 01:16:37,680 10 to 15 expected fantasy point band, You can see Bijon 1322 01:16:37,680 --> 01:16:39,680 Robinson. He's right here, right behind 1323 01:16:39,680 --> 01:16:42,160 Naji Harris smack in the middle of the chart. 1324 01:16:42,880 --> 01:16:45,600 Now you know that that could be OK. 1325 01:16:45,600 --> 01:16:47,960 He you know, he was a little banged up. 1326 01:16:48,120 --> 01:16:52,400 Algier got more opportunity than we, you know, we might expect 1327 01:16:52,480 --> 01:16:55,840 maybe over the rest of the season he gets more opportunity. 1328 01:16:56,360 --> 01:16:59,360 Bijon isn't even the best B Robinson on this chart. 1329 01:16:59,560 --> 01:17:02,640 Brian Robinson has more expected fantasy points than Bijon 1330 01:17:02,640 --> 01:17:05,560 Robinson. So little little concerning. 1331 01:17:05,640 --> 01:17:09,080 But I do like this week as a good get right spot for Bijon 1332 01:17:09,120 --> 01:17:13,920 into the Panthers. I it to me, it's like a don't 1333 01:17:13,920 --> 01:17:16,880 overthink it kind of spot, like here you go. 1334 01:17:16,920 --> 01:17:18,440 Here's the match. If you dream of. 1335 01:17:19,440 --> 01:17:22,680 I mean, you just saw the Falcons clear. 1336 01:17:22,760 --> 01:17:27,800 For better or worse, the Falcons care about public perception of 1337 01:17:28,280 --> 01:17:32,080 their players and how they're accumulating stats, which I I 1338 01:17:32,080 --> 01:17:35,360 know that we all hated Arthur Smith saying like stats are for 1339 01:17:35,360 --> 01:17:37,040 losers. I don't care about stats. 1340 01:17:37,680 --> 01:17:42,960 I I don't want to be like the antithesis of like the Arthur 1341 01:17:42,960 --> 01:17:47,720 Smith hater here, but I also think that team saying like, Oh 1342 01:17:47,720 --> 01:17:50,200 yeah, you're right. We def because everyone's upset 1343 01:17:50,200 --> 01:17:53,080 about us not involving that guy. We're going to involve that guy 1344 01:17:53,400 --> 01:17:57,960 like Kyle Pitts getting forced a bunch of targets where he looked 1345 01:17:57,960 --> 01:18:01,800 OK, but like, I'm pretty sure that if those targets had gone 1346 01:18:01,800 --> 01:18:04,760 to Drake London or Darnell Mooney, like they were just or 1347 01:18:04,760 --> 01:18:06,680 be Sean Robinson, like they were better served. 1348 01:18:06,680 --> 01:18:08,800 So. But the Falcons seem to care. 1349 01:18:08,920 --> 01:18:13,280 Like the Falcons care about what Jason Kelsey is saying that, oh, 1350 01:18:13,280 --> 01:18:15,800 you need to use Kyle Pitts. And then they come out and say, 1351 01:18:15,840 --> 01:18:18,320 oh, don't don't worry. We yeah, that's a good idea. 1352 01:18:18,320 --> 01:18:22,080 We're going to do it. It just it, it feels weird to me 1353 01:18:22,840 --> 01:18:25,960 that you're going to let public sentiment dictate the usage of 1354 01:18:25,960 --> 01:18:30,360 your players, especially when it seems like Kyle Pitts might not 1355 01:18:30,360 --> 01:18:34,440 be very good. But I think Bijan Robinson is 1356 01:18:34,440 --> 01:18:38,080 very good and I kind of think that this just might be a spot 1357 01:18:38,080 --> 01:18:39,520 where they want to get him going. 1358 01:18:39,520 --> 01:18:43,120 So and it's. The only thing about Pitts, so 1359 01:18:43,120 --> 01:18:48,280 he he he did only have 15% targets per at run like in in 1360 01:18:48,280 --> 01:18:52,440 getting involved. And so I I do wonder if like 1361 01:18:52,440 --> 01:18:54,440 that was just a function of them passing more. 1362 01:18:54,920 --> 01:18:57,160 It happened early though in the game too. 1363 01:18:57,160 --> 01:18:59,600 Like Pitts was schemed a couple things very early. 1364 01:18:59,600 --> 01:19:03,000 I think he had three targets in the first, maybe not the first 1365 01:19:03,000 --> 01:19:07,360 quarter, but like he had three targets almost immediately and 1366 01:19:07,360 --> 01:19:09,800 there there was some scheme to stuff there too, so. 1367 01:19:11,520 --> 01:19:15,160 Anyway, you you noticed a concerted effort to get him 1368 01:19:15,160 --> 01:19:17,600 involved. Yeah, but let's let's move to 1369 01:19:17,600 --> 01:19:21,600 the next chart here 'cause But you know, we talked about Dijon 1370 01:19:21,600 --> 01:19:25,880 Robinson as one of the favorites to to have a legendary season. 1371 01:19:26,240 --> 01:19:29,240 The other guy we would have expected to be in contention for 1372 01:19:29,240 --> 01:19:34,520 that is Breece Hall, who has just put up an absolute, Yeah, 1373 01:19:34,520 --> 01:19:38,160 this one, it's Breece Hall up there in the 15 to 20 expected 1374 01:19:38,160 --> 01:19:41,320 fantasy point range, but terrible efficiency. 1375 01:19:41,320 --> 01:19:44,800 I mean him and Devon at Chan, two of the the least efficient 1376 01:19:44,800 --> 01:19:49,120 backs in the league. Now that that evil man Robert 1377 01:19:49,120 --> 01:19:51,960 Sala is gone. God, I mean the. 1378 01:19:51,960 --> 01:19:54,600 Sun will shine upon Breeze Hall once more. 1379 01:19:55,120 --> 01:19:57,520 The Jets just seem like such a dumpster fire. 1380 01:19:57,520 --> 01:20:01,600 I don't know. I really, I do feel strongly 1381 01:20:01,600 --> 01:20:03,760 that he's a very, very talented running back. 1382 01:20:04,680 --> 01:20:08,640 I mean, I'm a little confused as to what we've seen these last 1383 01:20:08,640 --> 01:20:09,880 few weeks. He hasn't. 1384 01:20:10,480 --> 01:20:13,400 I think he hasn't forced any missed tackles in these past 1385 01:20:13,440 --> 01:20:16,560 couple weeks. It's a good, good stat nugget 1386 01:20:16,560 --> 01:20:20,880 that I heard. Yeah, just not looking great. 1387 01:20:20,880 --> 01:20:24,680 I mean, the opportunities weren't incredible this last 1388 01:20:24,680 --> 01:20:28,360 game. But I mean, and then you've got, 1389 01:20:28,360 --> 01:20:31,080 you know, your your two games removed from the really 1390 01:20:31,080 --> 01:20:36,320 atrocious Broncos game. So I don't know how, how worried 1391 01:20:36,320 --> 01:20:42,120 are you about Bree Saul? And I'm honestly, I'm not that 1392 01:20:42,120 --> 01:20:47,760 worried and I do feel like stuff like efficiency stats can like 1393 01:20:47,760 --> 01:20:52,760 wax and wane over time. And the big worry I guess would 1394 01:20:52,760 --> 01:20:55,640 be like just true jets, systemic stuff. 1395 01:20:56,440 --> 01:20:58,360 That's that's my biggest concern because I think. 1396 01:20:58,360 --> 01:21:04,480 Bruce is good if The Jets like haven't an epic meltdown and 1397 01:21:05,600 --> 01:21:08,800 then your sealing case is just gone. 1398 01:21:08,800 --> 01:21:12,360 I think you still have some floor where like a lot of the 1399 01:21:12,360 --> 01:21:14,040 offense has to run through him anyway. 1400 01:21:14,040 --> 01:21:17,720 So like, you're not going to get it's not going to be abysmal, 1401 01:21:17,720 --> 01:21:22,720 but your ceiling is just gone. And if The Jets can kind of get 1402 01:21:22,720 --> 01:21:27,680 it figured out, circle the wagons like he's going to get 1403 01:21:27,680 --> 01:21:31,040 going. Like, I'm not worried one way or 1404 01:21:31,040 --> 01:21:34,640 another. Like even if he has a tough time 1405 01:21:34,640 --> 01:21:39,920 in the box and he's, he, he will get targets, he's going to, he's 1406 01:21:39,920 --> 01:21:45,400 going to have breakaway runs. And I like I, I, I think you're 1407 01:21:45,400 --> 01:21:50,760 going to be OK. And I, I, I agree with you that 1408 01:21:50,760 --> 01:21:54,200 like the legendary season is kind of off the table now, but 1409 01:21:54,200 --> 01:21:57,560 I, I still think you can get something like 16 to 17 points a 1410 01:21:57,560 --> 01:22:00,640 game the rest of the way. I like think that that that 1411 01:22:00,640 --> 01:22:03,080 scenario is still like pretty pretty plausible. 1412 01:22:04,560 --> 01:22:08,920 Yeah, he yeah, I'm I'm pretty worried about The Jets systemic 1413 01:22:08,920 --> 01:22:12,360 stuff, but who knows, maybe the Robert Sala. 1414 01:22:13,080 --> 01:22:16,240 Apparently Robert Sala was really not liked by the players. 1415 01:22:17,120 --> 01:22:20,240 Is some of the like early rumor mill stuff that I'm seeing 1416 01:22:20,560 --> 01:22:23,880 Makai. Well, Makai Becton did. 1417 01:22:23,880 --> 01:22:25,560 Did you see the Makai Becton thing? 1418 01:22:26,000 --> 01:22:31,480 No. He posted the RIP Bozo picture 1419 01:22:31,520 --> 01:22:36,000 right after Robert Sala got fired on his Twitter. 1420 01:22:36,160 --> 01:22:39,560 Immediately deleted the tweet but man. 1421 01:22:39,720 --> 01:22:40,720 That's it. Got out there. 1422 01:22:41,240 --> 01:22:44,640 Yeah, Oh yeah, I got out there so harsh criticism from a Kai 1423 01:22:44,640 --> 01:22:48,480 Beckton, Robert Salas. So who knows, maybe, maybe the 1424 01:22:48,480 --> 01:22:51,640 sentiment in the locker room changes. 1425 01:22:52,240 --> 01:22:54,160 I don't know. I'm glad you're you're less 1426 01:22:54,160 --> 01:22:59,760 worried the the Devana Chan efficiency stuff also 1427 01:22:59,760 --> 01:23:03,720 concerning. But I I think, I mean, I didn't, 1428 01:23:03,720 --> 01:23:07,360 I didn't go and actually do this because I kind of know what I 1429 01:23:07,360 --> 01:23:11,480 would see if I did it. But really, I think a big part 1430 01:23:11,480 --> 01:23:15,480 of it has just been like, yeah, there hasn't been Tua in a bunch 1431 01:23:15,480 --> 01:23:16,840 of their games that they've played now. 1432 01:23:17,360 --> 01:23:19,680 They haven't had Mostert up until this week. 1433 01:23:20,240 --> 01:23:24,040 And him just having to carry the full workload is probably not 1434 01:23:24,040 --> 01:23:27,960 ideal for him, like having peak efficiency and being able to be 1435 01:23:28,440 --> 01:23:31,760 maximally explosive. And I think if you just went in 1436 01:23:31,760 --> 01:23:35,040 there and, you know, fudge the numbers a little bit, What if 1437 01:23:35,040 --> 01:23:39,440 what if you inserted inserted 180 yard Devana Chan breakaway 1438 01:23:39,440 --> 01:23:42,640 rushing touchdown his stats? What if you just pretended that 1439 01:23:42,640 --> 01:23:44,480 it happened this year? Like I'm pretty sure the 1440 01:23:44,480 --> 01:23:48,200 efficiency numbers all of a sudden go back to pretty good, 1441 01:23:48,320 --> 01:23:51,440 right? So it's like, like you said, the 1442 01:23:51,440 --> 01:23:53,240 efficiency stuff can wax and wane. 1443 01:23:53,240 --> 01:23:56,880 I'm not concerned about a Chan. I don't think that, you know, 1444 01:23:57,000 --> 01:23:59,840 you look like he did last season just by accident. 1445 01:23:59,880 --> 01:24:03,080 So he's definitely one we're down the stretch. 1446 01:24:03,160 --> 01:24:09,240 He could be interesting. Oh, Cream Hunt looking like the 1447 01:24:09,240 --> 01:24:12,440 waiver pick up of the year, just very solid. 1448 01:24:12,480 --> 01:24:16,240 Like in in your home leagues or high stakes leagues like cream 1449 01:24:16,240 --> 01:24:20,120 hunt, absolute smash. He's getting, he's basically 1450 01:24:20,120 --> 01:24:24,000 getting the Pacheco roll, like more or less, you know? 1451 01:24:24,320 --> 01:24:27,920 So just I'm just looking up some of these advanced stats here. 1452 01:24:28,320 --> 01:24:31,480 This does. No, this does include week 5. 1453 01:24:31,480 --> 01:24:36,560 Actually, those include week 5 advanced stats per Rotavis and 1454 01:24:38,560 --> 01:24:43,480 like 2 of the highest of the top five highest stuff rates. 1455 01:24:43,760 --> 01:24:48,800 So Devana Chan has been stuffed on 29% of his runs, hit at the 1456 01:24:48,800 --> 01:24:54,400 line 52% of his runs, Breece Hall hit stuffed 28% and hit at 1457 01:24:54,400 --> 01:25:02,200 the line 51%. And their their evasion stuff is 1458 01:25:03,040 --> 01:25:06,040 where is it at? Divine and chance evasion has 1459 01:25:06,040 --> 01:25:09,600 been bad and Breece Hall's evasion has been like actually 1460 01:25:09,600 --> 01:25:13,360 solid. I think you can pretty easily 1461 01:25:13,360 --> 01:25:16,760 tell yourself a story of how like the Dolphins turn that 1462 01:25:16,760 --> 01:25:21,960 offense around with you of being healthy and with Breach's stuff 1463 01:25:22,080 --> 01:25:24,920 like a lot of that still seems pretty solid. 1464 01:25:24,920 --> 01:25:28,040 It's like a lot of this the kind of like advanced metrics seem 1465 01:25:28,040 --> 01:25:32,520 solid, but it that does feel like the offense is truly 1466 01:25:32,520 --> 01:25:36,560 failing him. I don't know how that improves, 1467 01:25:36,560 --> 01:25:41,120 but maybe maybe they end up playing like weaker defenses and 1468 01:25:41,120 --> 01:25:44,640 you and and and The Jets kind of figured that out. 1469 01:25:45,520 --> 01:25:48,680 Sorry to bring it back just. No, no, I think that's that's 1470 01:25:48,680 --> 01:25:52,960 useful context. I didn't, I didn't really have 1471 01:25:53,040 --> 01:25:56,320 any other running backs to touch on here. 1472 01:25:56,320 --> 01:25:58,640 I feel like we got through most of them. 1473 01:25:58,640 --> 01:26:00,720 Did you have anyone before you move on? 1474 01:26:01,640 --> 01:26:05,040 And no, no, no, I think, I think we're good to move on. 1475 01:26:06,520 --> 01:26:10,800 So on to the tight end chart and so tight end utilization and 1476 01:26:10,800 --> 01:26:15,200 efficiency. So the green bar is what 1477 01:26:15,200 --> 01:26:18,760 percentage of team dropbacks are they running a route? 1478 01:26:19,200 --> 01:26:22,840 Then we also look at what percentage of those team 1479 01:26:22,840 --> 01:26:24,560 dropbacks are they pass blocking. 1480 01:26:24,840 --> 01:26:29,440 So we get that kind of full pass, our dropback participation 1481 01:26:29,840 --> 01:26:33,480 rate and then we also look at a dot, we look at targets for our 1482 01:26:33,480 --> 01:26:38,000 run. And one thing I wanted to note, 1483 01:26:38,000 --> 01:26:42,480 I should have said this much earlier, I think we said it in 1484 01:26:42,760 --> 01:26:48,160 last week, a lot of these charts are four week rolling. 1485 01:26:48,600 --> 01:26:53,840 So I'll just point it out. The running back charts and the 1486 01:26:53,840 --> 01:26:55,680 tight end chart are four week rolling. 1487 01:26:55,680 --> 01:26:59,760 So it's week two true 5. I, I believe we did. 1488 01:26:59,760 --> 01:27:02,560 We did say that last week, but I I should have said it sooner. 1489 01:27:03,600 --> 01:27:07,160 Yeah, good, good shout there because for these positions 1490 01:27:07,160 --> 01:27:10,640 where, you know, utilization is really, really important for 1491 01:27:10,640 --> 01:27:13,880 them, we want to be on top of the current trends. 1492 01:27:13,880 --> 01:27:18,440 And we don't want to let what happened, you know, say we're in 1493 01:27:18,440 --> 01:27:19,960 week 8. We don't want to let what 1494 01:27:19,960 --> 01:27:25,200 happened in week 1 drive what we're thinking about a player 1495 01:27:25,200 --> 01:27:27,880 all the way in week 8. It gets good context to have, 1496 01:27:27,880 --> 01:27:31,400 but we don't want to miss out on emerging trends because we're 1497 01:27:31,440 --> 01:27:35,240 keeping, you know, week one in there when we we just kind of 1498 01:27:35,240 --> 01:27:38,880 need to file that away for context on the player's stats. 1499 01:27:38,880 --> 01:27:41,200 But we want to be able to catch that as it. 1500 01:27:41,200 --> 01:27:45,400 Emerges and so Travis Kelce, a good example here where since 1501 01:27:45,400 --> 01:27:50,760 week 4, so week four and five, he's up to he's up to 90% rate 1502 01:27:50,760 --> 01:27:56,160 of participation, 27% target for a run versus 21 on the full 1503 01:27:56,160 --> 01:28:00,320 season and a 7.2 A dot in the last two weeks. 1504 01:28:01,080 --> 01:28:03,200 And so like that, that that's the kind of stuff that we're 1505 01:28:03,200 --> 01:28:06,000 trying to catch. Yeah, Travis Kelce is back to 1506 01:28:06,000 --> 01:28:08,760 Travis Kelce now after Roshi Rice went down. 1507 01:28:09,160 --> 01:28:13,520 So the the only solace you can take if you're a Roshi Rice 1508 01:28:13,520 --> 01:28:16,080 drafter was that if you're drafting a lot of Travis Kelce 1509 01:28:16,200 --> 01:28:19,360 as well, congratulations, you're you're Travis Kelce. 1510 01:28:19,400 --> 01:28:22,880 Shares are now saved because they certainly looked dead while 1511 01:28:22,880 --> 01:28:27,720 Rice was out on the field. So one one guy I wanted to point 1512 01:28:27,720 --> 01:28:32,480 out here who's I would fully expect his TPRR to come down 1513 01:28:32,480 --> 01:28:36,200 substantially is Dallas Goddard. You're, you're getting right now 1514 01:28:36,200 --> 01:28:39,280 we've got four weeks in here where you were either missing 1515 01:28:39,280 --> 01:28:41,720 A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith in every 1516 01:28:41,720 --> 01:28:46,120 week, but one of these four weeks here and then last week 1517 01:28:46,120 --> 01:28:51,280 you're missing both of them. And then or, or yeah, last week 1518 01:28:51,280 --> 01:28:54,800 you're missing both of them and then this week you get the buy. 1519 01:28:55,960 --> 01:29:00,760 So I think that coming out of the buy this week, you're you're 1520 01:29:00,760 --> 01:29:04,000 going to see a little bit less of Goddard and more of A.J. 1521 01:29:04,000 --> 01:29:09,560 Brown, more Devonta Smith. So I don't, I don't really think 1522 01:29:09,560 --> 01:29:11,840 there's too much actionable here to do with it. 1523 01:29:11,840 --> 01:29:14,200 Like if you have Dallas Goddard and he's your best tight end in 1524 01:29:14,200 --> 01:29:15,760 the manage league you're probably starting in. 1525 01:29:15,760 --> 01:29:18,520 Like I don't think he can really get one over on your league 1526 01:29:18,520 --> 01:29:20,960 mates if it's a league where you have trading and trade in. 1527 01:29:20,960 --> 01:29:24,240 Like unless people are really not paying attention to the fact 1528 01:29:24,240 --> 01:29:25,600 that the Eagles were missing weapons. 1529 01:29:25,600 --> 01:29:29,280 Like maybe you can just do like a desperation try and sell high 1530 01:29:29,280 --> 01:29:31,400 thing for Dallas Coddart and get more than he's worth. 1531 01:29:31,440 --> 01:29:34,280 But I think he'll still be fine the rest of the season too. 1532 01:29:34,280 --> 01:29:36,160 I'm not saying he's dead now, it just. 1533 01:29:36,280 --> 01:29:39,040 But he didn't suddenly become an elite, elite tight end, right? 1534 01:29:39,360 --> 01:29:42,680 Right. So one, one note I had here. 1535 01:29:42,680 --> 01:29:48,080 So Trey McBride, his underlying metrics last week was awesome. 1536 01:29:48,080 --> 01:29:52,640 So he he actually had a, he had 17 1/2 expected fantasy points 1537 01:29:52,640 --> 01:29:55,600 last week. He ran bad on on touchdown, so 1538 01:29:55,600 --> 01:30:02,200 he didn't quite get there, but he had a 33% target for run on a 1539 01:30:02,200 --> 01:30:08,360 6.6 A dot and obviously some some good, some good touchdown 1540 01:30:08,360 --> 01:30:10,640 equity that he didn't capitalize on. 1541 01:30:11,000 --> 01:30:15,280 But I I feel like an elite tight end season for Trey McBride is 1542 01:30:15,320 --> 01:30:18,880 is pretty well intact. Oh, it's, I think it's it. 1543 01:30:18,880 --> 01:30:20,640 We're currently watching it happen. 1544 01:30:20,760 --> 01:30:22,200 You know this. This is the. 1545 01:30:22,520 --> 01:30:23,760 Right. Well, we haven't, we haven't 1546 01:30:23,760 --> 01:30:25,240 seen that. We haven't gotten the points yet 1547 01:30:25,240 --> 01:30:26,720 is what I'm saying. Even though we haven't gotten 1548 01:30:26,720 --> 01:30:31,840 the points from Trey McBride, like the underlying metrics say 1549 01:30:31,840 --> 01:30:36,080 that a Smash Trey McBride game is, is, is is going to happen 1550 01:30:36,320 --> 01:30:38,120 and we're going to get, we'll probably get a couple of them. 1551 01:30:38,640 --> 01:30:41,840 Well and people, So what people don't understand about the elite 1552 01:30:41,840 --> 01:30:47,000 tight end stuff, the elite tight end does not mean this guy nukes 1553 01:30:47,040 --> 01:30:51,000 every week. What it means is most guys suck 1554 01:30:51,120 --> 01:30:55,160 every week, but this is one of the few guys that can 1555 01:30:55,160 --> 01:30:58,520 legitimately nuke and right now. And then your. 1556 01:30:58,560 --> 01:31:01,440 Four games are still pretty good and your four games are a lot 1557 01:31:01,440 --> 01:31:04,800 better where when everyone else sucks and they're getting two to 1558 01:31:04,800 --> 01:31:07,040 four fantasy points a week because they suck. 1559 01:31:07,280 --> 01:31:10,600 Trey McBride is getting like 6 to 9 fantasy points per week 1560 01:31:10,600 --> 01:31:14,240 when he has his four-game. And so that's you might not like 1561 01:31:14,240 --> 01:31:15,680 it. This is what elite tight end 1562 01:31:15,680 --> 01:31:17,520 looks like. If you didn't understand that 1563 01:31:17,520 --> 01:31:19,960 when you're signing up for the elite tight ends, like I hate to 1564 01:31:19,960 --> 01:31:22,440 break it to you now, but this is what it looks like. 1565 01:31:22,680 --> 01:31:26,880 And, and it's part of the reason why it works Like you're, you're 1566 01:31:26,880 --> 01:31:30,120 really hoping that that this is the way that things play out. 1567 01:31:30,400 --> 01:31:34,040 Because in a, in a basketball tournament where you're, it 1568 01:31:34,040 --> 01:31:37,960 literally is all going to come down to single weeks when like 1569 01:31:38,520 --> 01:31:42,720 like this last week, Tucker Kraft and Brock Bowers were 1570 01:31:42,720 --> 01:31:44,800 literal gods. You know, like if you didn't 1571 01:31:44,800 --> 01:31:48,080 have Tucker Craft or Brock Bowers in your tight end slot, I 1572 01:31:48,080 --> 01:31:50,480 guess George Kittle also had the touchdown to like kind of keep 1573 01:31:50,480 --> 01:31:53,760 him in in there. But outside of those three guys 1574 01:31:53,760 --> 01:31:55,840 is like, all right, well, there weren't, weren't really any 1575 01:31:55,840 --> 01:31:58,120 tight end points to speak of this week. 1576 01:31:58,280 --> 01:32:01,840 And so that's just that's what the whole thing is about. 1577 01:32:01,880 --> 01:32:05,440 It's like there's not going to be very many good scores, but 1578 01:32:06,160 --> 01:32:09,040 it's a lot easier to identify where the scores come from 1579 01:32:09,680 --> 01:32:13,240 because these guys have these profiles that are just different 1580 01:32:13,560 --> 01:32:17,840 and like it's not even that it's not that hard to identify. 1581 01:32:17,840 --> 01:32:20,680 Like just look at this chart. The chart kind of tells you 1582 01:32:20,680 --> 01:32:23,800 everything you need to know. Let's see Travis Kelsey, ton of 1583 01:32:23,800 --> 01:32:28,960 ton of routes, great route rate, 21% TPR, pretty solid 8 dot 7.8. 1584 01:32:28,960 --> 01:32:35,080 All right, next guy Trey McBride 26% TPRR lot of routes 7.6 A dot 1585 01:32:35,080 --> 01:32:39,680 looks pretty good like. It's George. 1586 01:32:39,680 --> 01:32:43,640 It's kind of self-explanatory. 27 percent 7.8 A dot looks 1587 01:32:43,640 --> 01:32:47,520 pretty good, you know, like so. One that we can throw out though 1588 01:32:48,200 --> 01:32:52,200 down here that is pure noise is Greg Dolcic. 1589 01:32:52,720 --> 01:32:55,440 He had, he had like an aberration game where he got 1590 01:32:55,480 --> 01:32:58,360 something like 8 targets. I want to say in Week 2, this is 1591 01:32:58,360 --> 01:32:59,960 just a feature of the rolling charts. 1592 01:32:59,960 --> 01:33:03,440 And then I believe he also missed some games in there or 1593 01:33:03,440 --> 01:33:06,320 missed a game. I want to say anyway, Greg 1594 01:33:06,320 --> 01:33:09,200 Dolson's stuff is fake. It was it was literally just all 1595 01:33:09,200 --> 01:33:12,160 one weird game or he got a shit load of targets and then did 1596 01:33:12,160 --> 01:33:14,320 nothing with them. So that's not. 1597 01:33:14,360 --> 01:33:17,200 A and he he may run. He probably ran routes in other 1598 01:33:17,200 --> 01:33:19,480 games, but he didn't get a target. 1599 01:33:19,480 --> 01:33:20,880 He doesn't get picked up in the data. 1600 01:33:20,880 --> 01:33:24,880 So that's we could, we should probably just remove Greg 1601 01:33:24,880 --> 01:33:27,880 Dulcich next week and that's a great call. 1602 01:33:28,400 --> 01:33:30,200 Yeah. But again, it's it's part of 1603 01:33:30,200 --> 01:33:33,800 why, you know, as much as we are spreadsheet virgins and we're 1604 01:33:33,800 --> 01:33:36,880 like in the data, we always talk about like how critically 1605 01:33:36,880 --> 01:33:39,920 important it is to provide context with the data and like, 1606 01:33:39,920 --> 01:33:43,760 pay attention to how these stats are being compiled, watch the 1607 01:33:43,760 --> 01:33:46,760 games, understand what's happening because it can give 1608 01:33:46,760 --> 01:33:50,240 you quite a bit of context. And it's just so like what one 1609 01:33:50,240 --> 01:33:53,560 piece of context that I got from this week and it's it's actually 1610 01:33:53,560 --> 01:33:57,080 lining up with the stats, but it's it's contrary to what 1611 01:33:57,080 --> 01:33:59,800 you're seeing in the box scores is Dalton Kincaid. 1612 01:34:00,320 --> 01:34:04,200 So with Khalil Shakur out, I mean, the Bill's already putrid 1613 01:34:04,200 --> 01:34:08,040 passing game looked even more putrid, but not for lack of 1614 01:34:08,040 --> 01:34:10,080 trying to get Dalton Kincaid going. 1615 01:34:10,080 --> 01:34:13,280 They they tried. He was pretty close to a really 1616 01:34:13,280 --> 01:34:15,120 big play. Josh Allen actually missed him 1617 01:34:15,120 --> 01:34:17,160 on a deep shot. It was just a badly thrown ball. 1618 01:34:18,400 --> 01:34:22,520 But you know, it is it is what it is Dalton Kincaid. 1619 01:34:22,560 --> 01:34:25,960 There is a universe where Josh Allen hits Dalton Kincaid and he 1620 01:34:25,960 --> 01:34:29,320 has an absolutely monster game. He's the Titan one on the week. 1621 01:34:29,680 --> 01:34:34,280 And you like if you've listened to this show for the last, you 1622 01:34:34,280 --> 01:34:37,680 know, year and change that. We've been doing it, you know 1623 01:34:37,680 --> 01:34:39,200 that. I'm like captain of the Dalton 1624 01:34:39,240 --> 01:34:42,640 Kincaid Hater fan club. Like, I promise you I'm telling 1625 01:34:42,640 --> 01:34:45,880 the truth if I tell you that Dalton Kincaid looks like he's 1626 01:34:45,880 --> 01:34:49,280 in a halfway decent spot. The only like the warts on the 1627 01:34:49,280 --> 01:34:52,800 Dalton Kincaid frog are his route participation hasn't been 1628 01:34:52,800 --> 01:34:59,040 fantastic this season, but I to me, this reads like a situation 1629 01:34:59,040 --> 01:35:02,720 of necessity. The Bills have nothing they they 1630 01:35:02,720 --> 01:35:04,640 cannot pass the ball to save their lives. 1631 01:35:04,840 --> 01:35:06,480 They also don't want to pass the ball. 1632 01:35:06,480 --> 01:35:09,760 So like the motivation part of it is troubling, but I think 1633 01:35:09,760 --> 01:35:12,200 that they're going to lose enough games playing like 1634 01:35:12,200 --> 01:35:15,560 they're they're they're not playing great football like they 1635 01:35:15,560 --> 01:35:17,960 were they were in the game against the Texans. 1636 01:35:17,960 --> 01:35:21,360 By the grace of God, Like if Nico Collins doesn't pull his 1637 01:35:21,360 --> 01:35:25,440 hamstring on that play, I think the Texans just dog walk the 1638 01:35:25,440 --> 01:35:28,040 bills all day because I don't think the Bills are all that 1639 01:35:28,040 --> 01:35:31,120 good. They're just like they're 1640 01:35:31,520 --> 01:35:34,600 they're feisty, They're hanging in to games because they have 1641 01:35:34,600 --> 01:35:37,200 Josh Allen, who's one of the best quarterbacks in the league 1642 01:35:37,200 --> 01:35:38,720 and he could just do magic stuff. 1643 01:35:39,080 --> 01:35:42,000 But like, the way they're running the offense is stupid. 1644 01:35:42,040 --> 01:35:45,280 Like, full stop. It's not the way that you win 1645 01:35:45,280 --> 01:35:48,000 football games in the NFL in 2024. 1646 01:35:48,480 --> 01:35:52,360 And so I think that eventually they will figure that out and by 1647 01:35:52,360 --> 01:35:55,680 sheer necessity have to utilize Dalton Kincaid more. 1648 01:35:56,320 --> 01:36:00,160 And we're getting enough of these peripherals that if the 1649 01:36:00,160 --> 01:36:03,480 route rate goes up, I think Dalton Kincaid's actually pretty 1650 01:36:03,480 --> 01:36:05,240 interesting. Yeah. 1651 01:36:05,240 --> 01:36:10,360 So when they pass a lot his route rate goes up a lot. 1652 01:36:10,360 --> 01:36:14,200 So he he was he was up to 78% in week five. 1653 01:36:14,800 --> 01:36:21,240 He actually had a 21% target rate run A17A dot in in week 5. 1654 01:36:21,960 --> 01:36:26,960 And so if if, if you can, if if you change the projection so 1655 01:36:26,960 --> 01:36:30,880 that they actually had a lot of drop backs and Kincaid was 1656 01:36:30,880 --> 01:36:34,080 participating in a lot of that, he would project for a decent 1657 01:36:34,080 --> 01:36:37,600 amount of points. And the problem is that like 1658 01:36:38,400 --> 01:36:41,960 you're getting double hit on the on the low drop back games where 1659 01:36:41,960 --> 01:36:46,280 like there's not as many and he's getting less of them and. 1660 01:36:46,680 --> 01:36:51,640 Yeah. But I agree with you, if you got 1661 01:36:51,640 --> 01:36:54,280 a kind of situation change there where they actually did start 1662 01:36:54,280 --> 01:36:59,040 tossing the ball more, it'd be like an asymmetric increase to 1663 01:36:59,040 --> 01:37:03,440 his his projection. Yeah, it. 1664 01:37:04,560 --> 01:37:07,240 Took her craft is kind of interesting too, because you 1665 01:37:07,240 --> 01:37:10,520 kind of noted that, hey, he was one of the big scores on the 1666 01:37:10,520 --> 01:37:13,120 week. I'm having a tough time seeing 1667 01:37:13,120 --> 01:37:19,520 how to like think about that because like the I guess you're 1668 01:37:19,520 --> 01:37:21,680 getting you are getting Rep participation. 1669 01:37:21,720 --> 01:37:27,920 So he's like at 80% last week and then I guess that's what the 1670 01:37:27,920 --> 01:37:32,480 most grave injury to and you're getting target spread run and 1671 01:37:33,000 --> 01:37:35,840 over the full season or close to 20%. 1672 01:37:36,360 --> 01:37:39,320 But then it's just like a tree, a dot, so. 1673 01:37:39,320 --> 01:37:44,000 I think it's yeah, my my read on that is that's the role that he 1674 01:37:44,000 --> 01:37:45,800 serves in the offense. Kind of like, yeah. 1675 01:37:46,520 --> 01:37:49,080 It is for The Jets. Because a lot the. 1676 01:37:49,080 --> 01:37:53,760 Way he converts that into points is if he catches a short and 1677 01:37:53,760 --> 01:37:57,040 then makes the big plays like he did that. 1678 01:37:57,040 --> 01:37:59,240 That's probably pretty swingy week to week. 1679 01:38:00,160 --> 01:38:03,880 Yeah, it's swingy week to week. It's, I think it's pretty good 1680 01:38:03,920 --> 01:38:07,920 in it's pretty good in tight end premium formats, though, because 1681 01:38:07,920 --> 01:38:11,560 I think that you can end up with weeks where Tucker craft earning 1682 01:38:11,560 --> 01:38:14,880 enough of these little dinky targets where he's just going to 1683 01:38:14,880 --> 01:38:16,920 PPR scam his way to a really good game. 1684 01:38:17,440 --> 01:38:19,840 The other thing about Tucker Craft now when they, when they 1685 01:38:19,840 --> 01:38:23,120 drafted Musgrave and Kraft in the same draft class, both of 1686 01:38:23,120 --> 01:38:25,240 these guys were really good athletes. 1687 01:38:25,880 --> 01:38:28,080 So that was that was the appeal of both of them. 1688 01:38:28,360 --> 01:38:31,720 And I, I remember being at least interested in Tucker Craft last 1689 01:38:31,720 --> 01:38:34,160 year just because of his athleticism. 1690 01:38:34,960 --> 01:38:37,960 Now it seems like that's playing out where he, he's getting this 1691 01:38:37,960 --> 01:38:41,520 big yak. Like I, I'm pretty sure like the 1692 01:38:41,520 --> 01:38:44,440 Packers really like him. They're using him over Musgrave. 1693 01:38:44,480 --> 01:38:48,240 Granted, Musgrave was hurt this game, but we already saw Kraft's 1694 01:38:48,240 --> 01:38:50,960 role emerging prior to the Musgrave injury. 1695 01:38:52,160 --> 01:38:55,880 And also, Kraft had Kraft had an uphill battle to get this role 1696 01:38:55,880 --> 01:39:00,120 because Kraft tore his pack off the bone this offseason and 1697 01:39:00,120 --> 01:39:02,480 missed a big chunk of camp, you know? 1698 01:39:03,040 --> 01:39:09,880 So it's to me, it's like he had every chance to, like, Musgrave 1699 01:39:09,880 --> 01:39:12,680 had every chance to win the role, and Kraft still ripped it 1700 01:39:12,680 --> 01:39:14,960 away from him. So I kind of think they like 1701 01:39:14,960 --> 01:39:19,200 Kraft a lot, yeah. And I just, I feel pretty secure 1702 01:39:19,200 --> 01:39:23,440 about his role given that he he had it from the jump. 1703 01:39:25,560 --> 01:39:29,000 The way the offense operates just hey, it's a very efficient 1704 01:39:29,000 --> 01:39:31,640 offense that wants to pass the ball deep down the field. 1705 01:39:31,960 --> 01:39:35,280 And then you have craft for these easier underneath thing. 1706 01:39:35,280 --> 01:39:39,920 Like I kind of think that when you get into tougher matchups 1707 01:39:39,920 --> 01:39:42,400 for the Packers, you're playing in stronger defenses. 1708 01:39:42,400 --> 01:39:45,400 Like those are probably going to be some of Tucker craft's best 1709 01:39:45,400 --> 01:39:49,000 games because if defenses are able to successfully take away 1710 01:39:49,000 --> 01:39:52,440 all this deep stuff they want to do, then Tucker craft might just 1711 01:39:52,440 --> 01:39:54,840 eat out a necessity for the Packers to keep moving the ball 1712 01:39:54,840 --> 01:39:58,600 down the field. So I'm I get that, you know, we 1713 01:39:58,600 --> 01:40:01,480 want to, we want to flag really low A dots like that and say 1714 01:40:01,480 --> 01:40:04,480 like, hey, maybe this is a concern, but. 1715 01:40:05,360 --> 01:40:10,120 At least for Tucker Craft right now, like I'm, I'm not overly 1716 01:40:10,120 --> 01:40:13,320 concerned about it, but I I need to see it play out a little bit 1717 01:40:13,320 --> 01:40:15,760 more to see if it's something where it's like, Oh, yeah, 1718 01:40:15,760 --> 01:40:19,080 actually that is a concern because he just does, he does K 1719 01:40:19,080 --> 01:40:21,800 dot things most weeks, you know? Right. 1720 01:40:22,600 --> 01:40:26,640 Like I, I guess Sam, So obviously we play, I, I play a 1721 01:40:26,640 --> 01:40:29,000 lot of FFPC. You played a lot of FSPC. 1722 01:40:29,000 --> 01:40:32,280 So we're happy with that in tight end premium, but then in 1723 01:40:32,280 --> 01:40:36,760 dog bowl stuff after he puts a ginormous week, like I don't 1724 01:40:36,760 --> 01:40:39,480 think you can chase that in like how people you are, can you? 1725 01:40:39,880 --> 01:40:44,120 He's like he goes probably like fourth round ish right now, 1726 01:40:44,120 --> 01:40:48,640 like, you know, 334 turn, I want to say in the dog bowl 1727 01:40:48,640 --> 01:40:51,320 currently. It's been hard for me to get him 1728 01:40:51,800 --> 01:40:54,280 just because a lot of people are are taking him early. 1729 01:40:55,200 --> 01:40:57,840 So you probably don't chase it, but I do. 1730 01:40:57,840 --> 01:41:00,880 The, the tricky part is I like the game environment against the 1731 01:41:00,880 --> 01:41:05,920 Cardinals as a spot. And now you know what the, the, 1732 01:41:06,200 --> 01:41:08,600 as I think through this, you know what the sharp way is to 1733 01:41:08,600 --> 01:41:12,280 play it is you just go back to Dantevion Wix or you go to Romeo 1734 01:41:12,280 --> 01:41:15,520 Dobbs cause Jaden Reid's like, you know, early first round 1735 01:41:15,520 --> 01:41:18,360 pick. Wix and Dobbs are both mostly 1736 01:41:18,360 --> 01:41:21,680 undrafted. And it's the same thing that we 1737 01:41:21,680 --> 01:41:25,600 talked about last week with Wix. And you know, like it can, it 1738 01:41:25,600 --> 01:41:27,840 can go to anyone here. It doesn't have to just be read 1739 01:41:27,840 --> 01:41:29,840 like we saw it go to Kraft last week. 1740 01:41:29,840 --> 01:41:34,320 I think this is just a good enough offense where you can you 1741 01:41:34,320 --> 01:41:36,760 can take, take the Perry and play. 1742 01:41:37,280 --> 01:41:41,760 And I know, I know the ADP is is driven by yeah, six there and 1743 01:41:41,760 --> 01:41:44,200 person drafts, but I'm looking at this ADP. 1744 01:41:44,200 --> 01:41:49,600 So it took her craft 29.3. But then you have barriers 25.6, 1745 01:41:49,960 --> 01:41:53,320 you have LaPorte at 27.1 and it's like you're paying like 1746 01:41:53,880 --> 01:41:57,440 you're getting like a two or three pick discount on like way 1747 01:41:57,440 --> 01:42:01,800 better place. Yeah, I mean, I, I, I don't even 1748 01:42:01,800 --> 01:42:04,400 want to tell you how much Brock Bowers I have this week. 1749 01:42:04,840 --> 01:42:08,360 I, I've been getting Brock Bowers at like pick 28, pick 30 1750 01:42:08,440 --> 01:42:11,920 in a couple drafts. And I've had to do smash that. 1751 01:42:11,920 --> 01:42:14,920 Oh, I've had to do everything in my power to keep my pants on. 1752 01:42:14,960 --> 01:42:19,320 It's been, it's been one of one of God's toughest tests for me. 1753 01:42:21,320 --> 01:42:23,960 But yeah, man. Any of these other tight ends 1754 01:42:23,960 --> 01:42:25,480 that you wanna talk? True. 1755 01:42:25,760 --> 01:42:27,080 I feel like we hit on a lot of them. 1756 01:42:27,360 --> 01:42:31,240 I think we got most everyone here that we had notes on. 1757 01:42:31,920 --> 01:42:37,080 OK, OK. And I think you had a note him 1758 01:42:37,080 --> 01:42:40,040 about Hunter Henry being kind of excited about how he, yeah, 1759 01:42:40,800 --> 01:42:44,640 might elevate with me. Yeah, just, I mean same same 1760 01:42:44,640 --> 01:42:48,360 thesis that we talked about with CJ Stroud, Drake May, you know, 1761 01:42:48,480 --> 01:42:51,080 and that game, there's a lot of input volatility here. 1762 01:42:51,120 --> 01:42:53,360 It's the rising tide lifts all ships thing. 1763 01:42:53,960 --> 01:42:58,560 If you're playing any kind of weekly format here, I think you 1764 01:42:58,560 --> 01:43:02,520 just lean into this uncertainty And you know, you you take 1765 01:43:02,520 --> 01:43:05,680 Hunter Henry while he's free. Like this might be the last week 1766 01:43:05,680 --> 01:43:07,240 of free Hunter Henry that you get. 1767 01:43:07,280 --> 01:43:09,480 What if Hunter Henry is Drake May's favorite target? 1768 01:43:09,480 --> 01:43:13,480 What if Drake May is, what if Drake May is, you know, a better 1769 01:43:13,480 --> 01:43:18,800 quarterback than some of the other rookies that like it's, I 1770 01:43:18,800 --> 01:43:21,840 know this sounds a little ridiculous, but it's not 1771 01:43:21,840 --> 01:43:24,880 unreasonable for Drake May to be just as good as Jayden Daniels. 1772 01:43:25,400 --> 01:43:27,960 Like there were teams that had Drake made over Jayden Daniels. 1773 01:43:28,480 --> 01:43:32,240 You know, in fact a lot of the pre draft stuff that I've heard 1774 01:43:32,240 --> 01:43:34,000 come out was. It's in his range. 1775 01:43:34,160 --> 01:43:37,000 You're not saying like we should expect this it's but it's in his 1776 01:43:37,000 --> 01:43:38,240 range. It's something that could 1777 01:43:38,240 --> 01:43:40,840 happen. And so it's just like, while 1778 01:43:40,840 --> 01:43:44,400 people aren't willing to price that on, on a player or on a 1779 01:43:44,400 --> 01:43:48,520 team, like this is the game. This is the game guy. 1780 01:43:48,720 --> 01:43:51,360 Like we're we're trying to find these outlier out. 1781 01:43:52,000 --> 01:43:55,280 And when people don't pay for the outlier outcome, you just 1782 01:43:55,280 --> 01:43:57,720 take it like, right, you're gonna lose money. 1783 01:43:57,720 --> 01:44:03,960 In a GPP, yeah, when you get upside dot cheap, that's how you 1784 01:44:03,960 --> 01:44:08,320 play, yeah. By the way, 31% Brock powers so 1785 01:44:08,320 --> 01:44:10,920 far for me. That's a lot of Brock. 1786 01:44:10,920 --> 01:44:13,000 Bauers. No problem, no. 1787 01:44:13,680 --> 01:44:17,360 So anybody here on the backup chart? 1788 01:44:18,800 --> 01:44:21,240 I mean, there's a guy on the starters chart that I didn't 1789 01:44:21,240 --> 01:44:23,160 talk about that should be on the back charts. 1790 01:44:23,160 --> 01:44:27,040 And no offense seems giga dead. You got guys like Pharaoh Brown 1791 01:44:27,040 --> 01:44:30,240 and I can't even remember the other guy's name. 1792 01:44:30,240 --> 01:44:34,840 But dude, the Seahawks using a three tight end rotation will 1793 01:44:34,840 --> 01:44:38,240 just forever tilt me. It might just be the Noah fan. 1794 01:44:38,240 --> 01:44:40,400 It's not that good. I was meant to say, like, 1795 01:44:40,400 --> 01:44:41,960 doesn't that kind of suggest that he's not? 1796 01:44:41,960 --> 01:44:42,960 That good? Yeah, so. 1797 01:44:43,920 --> 01:44:48,440 He does have like a 72% route. He did have a 72% rent run last 1798 01:44:48,440 --> 01:44:52,480 week on like what seemed like a high volume week for that team, 1799 01:44:53,040 --> 01:44:57,120 but then an 8% targets per run. Yeah, I he's probably, he's 1800 01:44:57,120 --> 01:44:58,880 probably not very good, which is a bummer. 1801 01:44:58,960 --> 01:45:00,080 Really like it. He's a bummer. 1802 01:45:00,200 --> 01:45:02,880 He's a he's an athlete, but apparently not one that they 1803 01:45:02,880 --> 01:45:07,600 want to give the ball to. Joan Johnson on the rise here 1804 01:45:08,560 --> 01:45:13,080 you get wait, Juan Johnson, make it onto the starters chart, 1805 01:45:13,160 --> 01:45:16,400 right? And he's right here. 1806 01:45:17,040 --> 01:45:18,560 Wow. Sure enough. 1807 01:45:19,280 --> 01:45:22,240 So yeah, made it onto the starters chart also with this 1808 01:45:22,240 --> 01:45:25,680 little rinky dink A dot. Here you go. 1809 01:45:25,720 --> 01:45:28,920 You want the most disgusting play of all time. 1810 01:45:29,680 --> 01:45:33,600 You don't play any Saints this week against Tampa Bay because 1811 01:45:33,640 --> 01:45:38,520 you're going to have either J Kaner or Spencer Rattler except 1812 01:45:38,520 --> 01:45:44,000 for Jawan Johnson, the emergency outlet 2.9 A dot guy. 1813 01:45:44,200 --> 01:45:49,520 You play Jawan Johnson here. Now that's a caveat with Tase of 1814 01:45:49,520 --> 01:45:53,480 Hill being tase of Hill inactive still with his broken ribs, but 1815 01:45:53,480 --> 01:45:56,360 Jawan getting more routes, looking like he's getting worked 1816 01:45:56,360 --> 01:46:01,840 in more fully. So he's a, you know. 68% right 1817 01:46:01,840 --> 01:46:06,600 run and 19% targets per run lot just just against the chiefs 1818 01:46:07,080 --> 01:46:12,000 Yeah, for a dot and all of that stuff is is volatile and but 1819 01:46:14,200 --> 01:46:15,840 good. Good to see him kind of emerge. 1820 01:46:15,840 --> 01:46:18,360 And, and if you if you think that they're going to have to 1821 01:46:18,360 --> 01:46:21,160 throw a lot to stay in the game, then Juwan is probably going to 1822 01:46:21,160 --> 01:46:23,800 play a lot. Yes, that is that is what I 1823 01:46:23,800 --> 01:46:26,240 think. OK, sorry, back to the backups 1824 01:46:26,240 --> 01:46:27,880 chart. There's only one other guy we 1825 01:46:27,880 --> 01:46:31,280 need to talk about on the backups chart, and it is the 1826 01:46:31,280 --> 01:46:35,320 sneakiest of sneaky plays. Probably a play to lose all of 1827 01:46:35,320 --> 01:46:37,360 your money. You'll get no fantasy points 1828 01:46:37,360 --> 01:46:41,320 from this player, but if you want to feel really smart, you 1829 01:46:41,320 --> 01:46:45,680 can play Jetavion Sanders because Tommy Tremble got like I 1830 01:46:45,680 --> 01:46:48,080 watched Tommy Tremble's soul leave his body on the field. 1831 01:46:48,080 --> 01:46:51,080 I really like in a in all seriousness, like hope Tommy 1832 01:46:51,080 --> 01:46:52,920 Tremble is OK. It was a brutal hit that he 1833 01:46:52,920 --> 01:46:55,080 took. I hope the guy who hit him is 1834 01:46:55,080 --> 01:46:57,800 suspended for a game that's just some fucked up stuff. 1835 01:46:57,800 --> 01:47:04,120 Like I'm all I, you know, as all or most football fans do. 1836 01:47:04,120 --> 01:47:07,160 I certainly enjoy a, you know, nice big hit now and then, but I 1837 01:47:07,160 --> 01:47:10,120 don't enjoy the hits where I'm watching a guy just get 1838 01:47:10,120 --> 01:47:14,560 absolutely speared to the head. And I watched, you know, him get 1839 01:47:14,560 --> 01:47:18,480 Alzheimer's 10 years sooner. So didn't didn't love that. 1840 01:47:18,480 --> 01:47:23,040 But Jetavion Sanders maybe gets the start this week. 1841 01:47:23,400 --> 01:47:25,720 Maybe a little interesting. We liked him a lot because he's 1842 01:47:25,720 --> 01:47:30,480 a good athlete. He was 74% at Rhett run in week 1843 01:47:30,480 --> 01:47:31,600 five. Yeah. 1844 01:47:31,600 --> 01:47:35,560 So like I'm assuming a lot of that was a Tommy Tremble injury? 1845 01:47:35,560 --> 01:47:37,440 Correct. The Tommy Tremble injury came 1846 01:47:37,440 --> 01:47:39,640 almost immediately. OK. 1847 01:47:39,680 --> 01:47:42,960 So we already know, actually maybe not know, but we kind of 1848 01:47:42,960 --> 01:47:46,480 know what is what, that he has a full role. 1849 01:47:46,640 --> 01:47:51,160 Yeah, that that was that was my my point, that hey, the the door 1850 01:47:51,160 --> 01:47:55,280 opened and Jatavion Sanders at least got to walk through the 1851 01:47:55,280 --> 01:47:58,000 door. Now, the other stuff that is 1852 01:47:58,000 --> 01:48:00,640 interesting here is they played a really good defense in the 1853 01:48:00,640 --> 01:48:02,920 Bears so that the offense was kind of stymied. 1854 01:48:02,920 --> 01:48:05,640 Like Deante Johnson really didn't get anything going. 1855 01:48:05,640 --> 01:48:08,320 Chuba Hubbard is the only one who put up even a usable fantasy 1856 01:48:08,320 --> 01:48:12,760 week for for the Panthers. So you get a much friendlier 1857 01:48:12,760 --> 01:48:14,520 match up against the Falcons here. 1858 01:48:16,000 --> 01:48:19,640 I definitely think that this could be a spot where you know, 1859 01:48:19,640 --> 01:48:21,280 you just get a little bit of a bounce back. 1860 01:48:21,280 --> 01:48:24,520 And the other thing is the target competition outside of 1861 01:48:24,880 --> 01:48:30,640 Deante Johnson is like non existent because Xavier Legette 1862 01:48:30,640 --> 01:48:35,280 is injured. Jonathan Mingo is like, I 1863 01:48:35,280 --> 01:48:38,280 thought it was hard to find a receiver on the Panthers that 1864 01:48:38,280 --> 01:48:44,080 was gonna be worse than gosh, who's their their former LSU guy 1865 01:48:44,080 --> 01:48:45,480 whose name I'm forgetting right now. 1866 01:48:47,160 --> 01:48:49,760 Terrace Marshall thought it was gonna be hard for them to find a 1867 01:48:49,760 --> 01:48:52,440 guy worse than Terrace Marshall. Congratulations to the Panthers 1868 01:48:52,440 --> 01:48:55,640 organization. Incredible front office found 1869 01:48:55,640 --> 01:49:00,520 another guy even worse. And Mingo Mingo is terrible. 1870 01:49:00,520 --> 01:49:03,800 So Jacavion Sanders might just be able to get there because 1871 01:49:03,800 --> 01:49:07,320 there's no one to take the ball other than Deonte Johnson and 1872 01:49:07,320 --> 01:49:11,400 he's going to be entirely free. Probably not good in the dog 1873 01:49:11,400 --> 01:49:16,360 bowl because like, they're the the like the minimum. 1874 01:49:16,440 --> 01:49:18,120 OK. So he's what you're saying is 1875 01:49:18,120 --> 01:49:24,120 he's a desperation and waiver wire pickup where where like 1876 01:49:24,280 --> 01:49:28,240 you, you lost a tight end or you have somebody on a bye week? 1877 01:49:28,400 --> 01:49:30,960 He'll probably I haven't looked at the DraftKings pricing yet. 1878 01:49:30,960 --> 01:49:33,960 I bet he's 2500 though. That's more where I would play 1879 01:49:33,960 --> 01:49:38,120 him just because like the, you know, the last round cost of a 1880 01:49:38,120 --> 01:49:43,120 tight end on underdog is not the equivalent of a 2500 salary. 1881 01:49:43,120 --> 01:49:46,360 It's more like getting a $4000 player. 1882 01:49:46,680 --> 01:49:52,360 And so I think you just wanna, if you're gonna, if you choose 1883 01:49:52,360 --> 01:49:54,640 to lose your hard earned American dollars playing 1884 01:49:54,640 --> 01:49:57,240 Jetavion Sanders this week, probably do it in the format 1885 01:49:57,240 --> 01:49:59,720 where you get the largest benefit from it, which is where 1886 01:49:59,720 --> 01:50:03,040 you'd save a ton of salary because he's not he's not going 1887 01:50:03,040 --> 01:50:04,640 to be owned any no one will play. 1888 01:50:04,680 --> 01:50:08,040 The only people playing Jetavion Sanders are the people stupid 1889 01:50:08,040 --> 01:50:11,640 enough to listen to me. So you know, if you're if you're 1890 01:50:11,640 --> 01:50:14,320 watching this right now, it's going to be you and like maybe 1891 01:50:14,320 --> 01:50:16,240 one other person playing Jetavion Sanders. 1892 01:50:16,240 --> 01:50:20,760 So anyway, that's that's all the Jatavion Sanders talk for this 1893 01:50:20,760 --> 01:50:25,920 podcast. OK, I just I'm looking up his 1894 01:50:27,640 --> 01:50:34,240 salary now, looks like 20 this week is 2600. 100 more than the 1895 01:50:34,240 --> 01:50:37,280 stone men. I'll I'll tell you what, I'll 1896 01:50:37,280 --> 01:50:40,680 probably have at least one Jatavion Sanders team on 1897 01:50:40,680 --> 01:50:45,600 DraftKings. Make Sam. 1898 01:50:46,960 --> 01:50:48,320 It makes sense. You don't have. 1899 01:50:48,320 --> 01:50:50,240 It makes sense. It doesn't make any sense. 1900 01:50:51,440 --> 01:50:56,320 Well, we, we just pitched them. I, I, I if, if we just gave us 1901 01:50:56,320 --> 01:50:58,880 some speech for him, I'd hope that you're, you're also playing 1902 01:50:58,880 --> 01:51:05,960 them. My my my last stack chasing Co 1903 01:51:05,960 --> 01:51:09,360 host also had an issue about touting tight ends that he 1904 01:51:09,360 --> 01:51:13,640 didn't play. Oh, that's a good call. 1905 01:51:13,720 --> 01:51:19,880 Good shout. So receiver opportunity versus 1906 01:51:19,960 --> 01:51:25,520 fantasy points, and this is the starters chart. 1907 01:51:26,560 --> 01:51:35,000 Do you want to kick us off? Oh, I can't hear you. 1908 01:51:35,680 --> 01:51:38,880 It's something wrong? Nope, sorry, I had my mic off 1909 01:51:38,880 --> 01:51:39,760 there. Can you hear me now? 1910 01:51:39,960 --> 01:51:43,600 Yeah, yeah, yeah, can hear. You Jamar Chase is being sneaky 1911 01:51:43,680 --> 01:51:47,600 and hiding up in the upper left hand behind the route share 1912 01:51:47,600 --> 01:51:51,400 legend. Now this this chart's 1913 01:51:51,400 --> 01:51:56,400 interesting just because Malik Neighbors is skewing it so hard 1914 01:51:56,400 --> 01:52:00,600 that the minimum X axis value is 40% weighted targets per route 1915 01:52:00,600 --> 01:52:05,360 run. So it looks Jamar Chase's 1916 01:52:05,360 --> 01:52:08,440 weighted targets per route run kind of like artificially looks 1917 01:52:08,440 --> 01:52:11,480 lower than it even is. Now granted, T Higgins got a lot 1918 01:52:11,480 --> 01:52:14,480 of targets as well. So that's that's also part of 1919 01:52:14,480 --> 01:52:18,240 it. But yeah, I mean, I I would 1920 01:52:18,240 --> 01:52:23,840 fully expect Jamar Chase to finish moving on over up into 1921 01:52:23,840 --> 01:52:28,040 the upper right hand quadrant to live with wide receivers of his. 1922 01:52:28,560 --> 01:52:33,720 Chase had 29% targets per at run, 6068% weighted targets per 1923 01:52:33,720 --> 01:52:38,120 at run in Week 5. I think we can pretty handily 1924 01:52:38,120 --> 01:52:42,240 ascribe the the low start to the year because of the holdout. 1925 01:52:42,520 --> 01:52:47,200 Yep, and and and normal Jamar Chase underlying usage trends. 1926 01:52:47,280 --> 01:52:50,720 Projection forward. Yeah, agree. 1927 01:52:52,600 --> 01:52:56,560 OK. This is if you want the the flag 1928 01:52:56,560 --> 01:53:01,120 plant of all flag plants here. The guy who is going to 1929 01:53:01,120 --> 01:53:06,040 absolutely erupt this week is in a similar spot on the chart that 1930 01:53:06,040 --> 01:53:08,960 Cortland Sutton was last week. When I said maybe Cortland 1931 01:53:08,960 --> 01:53:11,480 Sutton's like an OK play. He's getting a lot of weighted 1932 01:53:11,480 --> 01:53:14,080 targets per route run. You know he's he's in a good 1933 01:53:14,080 --> 01:53:17,360 spot. Terry Mclaurin against the 1934 01:53:17,360 --> 01:53:23,120 Ravens pass funnel defense with Jaden Daniels, who it's looking 1935 01:53:23,120 --> 01:53:25,480 more and more with with each passing game. 1936 01:53:25,480 --> 01:53:30,000 It's looking like Cliff Kingsbury is rotating the 1937 01:53:30,120 --> 01:53:35,120 horizontal raid 90° and allowing them to do the vertical raid and 1938 01:53:35,120 --> 01:53:37,760 just huck it deep to Terry McLaren. 1939 01:53:38,360 --> 01:53:42,160 I mean, listen, if you get just two. 1940 01:53:42,360 --> 01:53:45,080 Terry McLaren had 176 area yards. 1941 01:53:45,320 --> 01:53:46,560 That's what I'm that's what I'm saying. 1942 01:53:46,560 --> 01:53:50,400 You get two of those deep bombs to connect to Terry and and he 1943 01:53:50,400 --> 01:53:52,920 keeps his feet through him because this last week he caught 1944 01:53:52,920 --> 01:53:55,200 one and fell down short of the short of the end zone. 1945 01:53:55,200 --> 01:54:02,320 Like, I mean, I'm not, I don't mean to sound hyperbolic here, 1946 01:54:02,880 --> 01:54:06,840 but a Terry Mclaurin 40 burger is squarely in the range. 1947 01:54:07,000 --> 01:54:09,880 That's like, I think that's like a 90. 1948 01:54:10,000 --> 01:54:13,320 It's not even 99th percentile. That's like 98th percentile. 1949 01:54:13,480 --> 01:54:18,320 OK, but I I think this is an insane spot for Terry Mclaurin. 1950 01:54:18,320 --> 01:54:23,000 He's going way too late. I'm I'm ruining my ability to 1951 01:54:23,000 --> 01:54:24,640 get Terry Mclaurin right now in dog bowl. 1952 01:54:24,640 --> 01:54:27,000 I only have 23% of them right now. 1953 01:54:27,520 --> 01:54:33,120 I would, I hope that before rankings come out or projections 1954 01:54:33,120 --> 01:54:36,360 come out that I'm able to get to like 50% Terry Mclaurin cuz 1955 01:54:36,360 --> 01:54:38,680 he'll be at the end of the him and Jaden Daniels would be the 1956 01:54:38,680 --> 01:54:43,280 1-2 turn in dog bowls right now. So I got, I managed to get a 1957 01:54:43,280 --> 01:54:48,680 Terry Mclaurin in the third. I think I, yeah, it's Terry 1958 01:54:48,680 --> 01:54:52,760 Mclaurin third round, Jaden Daniels second round team, which 1959 01:54:52,760 --> 01:54:57,120 I am just over the moon about. I, I think if you can get a 1960 01:54:57,120 --> 01:54:59,920 couple of those, you're going to have a really good shot at 1961 01:55:00,800 --> 01:55:04,320 stealing a seat this week. So Terry Mclaurin, that's my, 1962 01:55:04,520 --> 01:55:09,040 that's my spot this week. The that makes sense. 1963 01:55:09,720 --> 01:55:13,680 So we talked about this briefly on back, way back on the 1964 01:55:13,680 --> 01:55:16,040 quarterbacks chart. We talked about Drake London and 1965 01:55:16,040 --> 01:55:19,320 Darnell Mooney, you know, with respect to Kirk Cousins in this 1966 01:55:19,320 --> 01:55:21,000 good matchup against the Panthers. 1967 01:55:22,200 --> 01:55:24,800 Drake Lennon and Darnell Mooney are spider man meeting each 1968 01:55:24,800 --> 01:55:28,080 other on this chart here. Basically identical weighted 1969 01:55:28,080 --> 01:55:30,800 targets per route run. Just a couple fantasy points 1970 01:55:30,800 --> 01:55:33,480 difference. You know, which over the the 1971 01:55:33,480 --> 01:55:36,960 small sample that we have pretty attributable to just a little 1972 01:55:36,960 --> 01:55:40,680 little bit of variance. I do think that, you know, 1973 01:55:40,680 --> 01:55:44,920 straight up, you know, cost agnostic, I'd take Drake London 1974 01:55:44,920 --> 01:55:48,440 over Darnell Mooney. However, in pretty much every 1975 01:55:48,440 --> 01:55:51,920 fantasy format that we're playing, cost definitely matters 1976 01:55:52,360 --> 01:55:54,880 and you're getting Darnell Mooney a lot cheaper than Drake 1977 01:55:54,880 --> 01:55:58,040 London. So I'm I'm pretty into Darnell 1978 01:55:58,040 --> 01:56:02,760 Mooney this week. Gosh, things you never thought 1979 01:56:02,760 --> 01:56:05,720 that you would say. Yeah, that that that's an odd 1980 01:56:05,720 --> 01:56:10,720 one where he just had like a really, really like mediocre to 1981 01:56:10,720 --> 01:56:15,400 like non like viable career and now just an utter revival. 1982 01:56:16,360 --> 01:56:18,440 He did. He had the one really good 1983 01:56:18,440 --> 01:56:20,040 season, right? But. 1984 01:56:20,280 --> 01:56:23,360 He had he had a solid like rookie year where he got like 1985 01:56:23,680 --> 01:56:26,920 our sophomore year where he just about got to 1000 yards. 1986 01:56:27,120 --> 01:56:31,200 I thought he was over. 1000 I thought, I thought it was like 1987 01:56:31,520 --> 01:56:33,520 1000 and like 40 or something like that. 1988 01:56:33,880 --> 01:56:38,360 Yeah, the the the semantics between like a thousand 1040 1989 01:56:38,360 --> 01:56:40,400 doesn't matter. Darnell Mooney, like I think we 1990 01:56:40,400 --> 01:56:42,040 had all pretty much left for dead. 1991 01:56:43,720 --> 01:56:48,200 But anyway, he he seems to be experiencing a late, late career 1992 01:56:48,200 --> 01:56:49,880 resurgence here with Kirk Cousins. 1993 01:56:51,040 --> 01:56:54,960 And it's to me, it's just kind of the thing where there's too 1994 01:56:54,960 --> 01:56:57,480 much name value still being ascribed to Drake London, not 1995 01:56:57,480 --> 01:56:59,560 the Drake London isn't good. I think he's good. 1996 01:56:59,960 --> 01:57:05,360 I just think that kind of if we go back in time and kind of look 1997 01:57:05,360 --> 01:57:11,120 at this as the like when Kirk Cousins had Adam Thielen and 1998 01:57:11,120 --> 01:57:15,280 Justin Jefferson both doing like, I'm, I'm talking way back 1999 01:57:15,280 --> 01:57:17,560 when, when Adam Thielen was, was really good. 2000 01:57:17,600 --> 01:57:20,560 The sorry, it's more more like Adam Thielen's Seth Diggs when 2001 01:57:20,560 --> 01:57:24,000 it was like pretty concentrated offense, right? 2002 01:57:24,000 --> 01:57:27,360 Like you can get both these guys now this is a little less 2003 01:57:27,360 --> 01:57:29,800 concentrated, but I mean, it's, it's constant than that. 2004 01:57:29,800 --> 01:57:32,240 But that was like one of the all time concentrated offenses. 2005 01:57:32,920 --> 01:57:35,920 Just think of think of Darnell Mooney and they're totally 2006 01:57:35,920 --> 01:57:38,400 different player archetypes. It's it's purely just like the 2007 01:57:38,400 --> 01:57:43,280 role and the and like the cost relative to what you're getting 2008 01:57:43,280 --> 01:57:45,840 for the targets. Like Darnell Mooney is just like 2009 01:57:45,920 --> 01:57:48,520 that second piece in the Kirk Cousins offense that is going 2010 01:57:48,520 --> 01:57:51,360 too cheaply. People will get there 2011 01:57:51,360 --> 01:57:52,760 eventually. Like it's not. 2012 01:57:53,160 --> 01:57:54,840 I mean, it might already be too late. 2013 01:57:54,880 --> 01:57:57,400 Like people might already be on to the Darnell Mooney stuff. 2014 01:57:57,840 --> 01:58:00,960 And but from what I'm seeing in dog bowl prices, they're not. 2015 01:58:02,240 --> 01:58:05,720 And so it's probably one of your last opportunities to take 2016 01:58:05,720 --> 01:58:10,120 advantage of the Darnell Mooney to Drake London arbitrage 2017 01:58:10,120 --> 01:58:13,400 opportunity. Yeah. 2018 01:58:13,720 --> 01:58:20,040 And yeah, I think I think that's that's fair, but not non 2019 01:58:20,040 --> 01:58:23,080 derogatory. It's it's pretty gross. 2020 01:58:24,240 --> 01:58:28,600 It I have a tough time seeing like how Darnell Mooney, like 2021 01:58:28,600 --> 01:58:31,400 it's hard for me to actually envision him continuing to play 2022 01:58:31,400 --> 01:58:35,520 well enough to like earn these targets over over a full year. 2023 01:58:36,080 --> 01:58:39,000 But like that's what he's doing. That's what he's doing. 2024 01:58:39,320 --> 01:58:43,760 And the offenses that he's been playing on it have been so rough 2025 01:58:44,240 --> 01:58:48,480 that like, it, it's not that. It's also not that difficult to 2026 01:58:48,480 --> 01:58:52,120 tell yourself a story of like him just being misused his 2027 01:58:52,120 --> 01:58:56,120 entire career. And, and, and like we've seen 2028 01:58:56,120 --> 01:59:00,520 we've we have seen veterans have revival career revivals with 2029 01:59:00,520 --> 01:59:04,400 good quarterbacks. So like, that's probably what's 2030 01:59:04,400 --> 01:59:06,880 happening. And by the end of the year it 2031 01:59:06,880 --> 01:59:08,800 it'll, it'll just be like accepted. 2032 01:59:09,560 --> 01:59:13,880 Yeah. OK, this was one that I was 2033 01:59:13,880 --> 01:59:17,520 interested in your thoughts on. So Jameson Williams and Alman 2034 01:59:17,520 --> 01:59:20,720 Raw, St. Brown, you know, pretty close on 2035 01:59:20,720 --> 01:59:26,160 the chart for now. A lot of this is just Alman raw 2036 01:59:26,160 --> 01:59:29,760 is going to dominate the raw targets more than Jameson. 2037 01:59:29,800 --> 01:59:32,760 At least what we've seen so far this season is he's gonna get 2038 01:59:32,880 --> 01:59:36,800 way more raw targets. But Jameson is now, he's not 2039 01:59:36,800 --> 01:59:39,640 just getting deep stuff. Jameson's operating in in all 2040 01:59:39,640 --> 01:59:42,360 quadrants, but he is also getting stuff that much deeper 2041 01:59:42,640 --> 01:59:45,240 than Amanra. So it's kind of buoying his his 2042 01:59:45,360 --> 01:59:47,640 weighted targets per route run a little higher just because he's 2043 01:59:47,640 --> 01:59:52,240 getting that deeper stuff. But I really my question for you 2044 01:59:52,240 --> 01:59:56,000 is, is the emergence of Jameson Williams as like a legitimate 2045 01:59:56,000 --> 02:00:00,280 viable weapon for the Lions now eating into these other Lions 2046 02:00:00,280 --> 02:00:03,920 pass catchers like Amanra, like Laporta? 2047 02:00:04,240 --> 02:00:09,080 And is that causing them to be a little bit muted versions of 2048 02:00:09,080 --> 02:00:11,080 what we've seen from them last year? 2049 02:00:11,680 --> 02:00:15,840 I think, I think you've kind of got two things going on where it 2050 02:00:15,840 --> 02:00:19,520 does seem like they're running the ball more and then so the 2051 02:00:19,520 --> 02:00:23,160 receiving volume is down and then he's taking a bigger chunk 2052 02:00:23,160 --> 02:00:25,960 of it than before. So you're kind of getting a 2053 02:00:25,960 --> 02:00:34,640 double double blast there, which it does kind of suck that all 2054 02:00:34,640 --> 02:00:37,560 those kind of expensive pieces are underwhelming. 2055 02:00:38,160 --> 02:00:41,760 They're probably still like, they're probably all still like 2056 02:00:41,760 --> 02:00:47,080 great GPP plays. Like it's kind of like similar 2057 02:00:47,080 --> 02:00:52,400 to how the San Francisco team has been where like they're they 2058 02:00:52,400 --> 02:00:54,320 run too much, they cannibalize each other. 2059 02:00:54,760 --> 02:00:58,760 But then there's going to be games where one of those guys is 2060 02:00:58,760 --> 02:01:00,280 just somebody you absolutely need. 2061 02:01:01,760 --> 02:01:04,840 Yeah, definitely. To week consistency isn't what 2062 02:01:04,840 --> 02:01:07,640 it was before. Something I, I think I might 2063 02:01:07,640 --> 02:01:11,920 want to dig in. I've I've done this on pass BBM 2064 02:01:12,040 --> 02:01:16,360 data, but I think I have some ideas for how to kind of dive in 2065 02:01:16,520 --> 02:01:20,880 to this problem in a deeper way. But doing kind of like a 2066 02:01:20,880 --> 02:01:25,200 sensitivity analysis on the price of team stacks for some of 2067 02:01:25,200 --> 02:01:28,600 these pretty expensive team stacks, like what you actually 2068 02:01:28,600 --> 02:01:31,640 need from the pieces. Like, for example, if you team 2069 02:01:31,640 --> 02:01:34,800 stacked the Lions this year in best ball, took Almond raw in 2070 02:01:34,800 --> 02:01:37,240 the first round, took a Porta in the fourth round. 2071 02:01:37,360 --> 02:01:40,320 Or I mean, you can't, you can't take Gibbs and almond raw, you 2072 02:01:40,320 --> 02:01:43,240 know, except for that brief stretch of time where Gibbs was 2073 02:01:43,240 --> 02:01:48,240 falling with a hamstring injury. And then you get, you know, 2074 02:01:48,320 --> 02:01:53,160 Jamieson in the seventh round. It's like, is that going to be 2075 02:01:53,160 --> 02:01:57,360 good for best ball? I mean, right now it's looking 2076 02:01:57,360 --> 02:01:59,920 like David Montgomery cost adjusted David Montgomery and 2077 02:01:59,920 --> 02:02:03,040 Jameis Williams were the way to play this in basketball drafts. 2078 02:02:03,040 --> 02:02:07,800 But there's a long season and I'm I'm pretty optimistic in the 2079 02:02:07,800 --> 02:02:11,320 Gibbs thesis playing out where at the start of the season I was 2080 02:02:11,320 --> 02:02:14,040 like a little hesitant to believe it. 2081 02:02:14,040 --> 02:02:17,160 I I just thought that it was a little too wish Cassidy that 2082 02:02:17,160 --> 02:02:19,960 like just going to usurp David Montgomery. 2083 02:02:19,960 --> 02:02:24,040 He's going to take so much of it and dominate and and his passing 2084 02:02:24,040 --> 02:02:27,240 role has been less. I think that's also just a side 2085 02:02:27,240 --> 02:02:30,920 effect of Jameson just eating again, eating into that passing 2086 02:02:30,920 --> 02:02:34,600 volume. But man, Gibbs just looks so 2087 02:02:34,600 --> 02:02:38,680 good and they're willing to use him in situations that I think 2088 02:02:38,680 --> 02:02:41,120 prior to the season starting, people would have ascribed to 2089 02:02:41,120 --> 02:02:46,160 like purely David Montgomery situations like, you know, goal, 2090 02:02:46,200 --> 02:02:49,440 goal to go, you know, short, short yardage, goal line stuff 2091 02:02:49,840 --> 02:02:51,560 like they're happy with Gibbs there. 2092 02:02:51,560 --> 02:02:55,480 So I think the path for Gibbs getting there is still still 2093 02:02:55,480 --> 02:02:57,720 alive. But you know, with, with a 2094 02:02:57,720 --> 02:03:02,680 Monroe and Jameson, yeah, it's it's probably a lot like the 2095 02:03:02,680 --> 02:03:04,600 Niners, like you said. I think that's a really good 2096 02:03:04,600 --> 02:03:09,400 comparison. I I know you, you had a note 2097 02:03:09,400 --> 02:03:12,320 here about like a Brandon Ayuk revival. 2098 02:03:12,840 --> 02:03:14,880 Yeah. That that that was how I wanted 2099 02:03:14,880 --> 02:03:17,720 to segue the the Niners and and Lions here. 2100 02:03:18,160 --> 02:03:22,360 But I mean, man, I, I played a bunch of Iuke last week. 2101 02:03:22,680 --> 02:03:27,040 I thought it was a good spot. It's just, it's something where 2102 02:03:27,160 --> 02:03:31,040 I just have to remind myself like I, I wish I remember this 2103 02:03:31,040 --> 02:03:33,920 prior to to watching this week play out. 2104 02:03:34,440 --> 02:03:40,000 But when a major projection provider is like so, so heavily 2105 02:03:40,000 --> 02:03:44,840 over on one player in one of these like volatile good 2106 02:03:44,840 --> 02:03:49,360 offenses relative to the other pieces like ETR was so much 2107 02:03:49,360 --> 02:03:52,640 higher on Debo Samuel than the rest of the industry and so much 2108 02:03:52,640 --> 02:03:56,000 higher on Debo Samuel than Brandon Iuke that even though 2109 02:03:56,000 --> 02:03:58,760 their projection represents a range of outcomes, what we're 2110 02:03:58,760 --> 02:04:01,160 telling you is the median projection and here's the 2111 02:04:01,160 --> 02:04:04,240 ceiling. So they're not necessarily wrong 2112 02:04:04,320 --> 02:04:09,000 by projecting Debo that much higher, but the way that people 2113 02:04:09,000 --> 02:04:12,560 are consuming the data that they're providing is wrong. 2114 02:04:13,040 --> 02:04:16,880 People are seeing that and saying, Oh my God, I got to play 2115 02:04:16,880 --> 02:04:18,880 Debo. Samuel's the best projected 2116 02:04:18,880 --> 02:04:22,040 player on the slate. And so then you get this weird 2117 02:04:22,040 --> 02:04:26,760 overreaction where, you know, if you sat down and had a 2118 02:04:26,760 --> 02:04:29,200 conversation with the ETR projection team, they'd probably 2119 02:04:29,200 --> 02:04:33,080 tell you, yeah, all of these guys could go absolutely nuke 2120 02:04:33,080 --> 02:04:35,000 this week. We just think Debo has the 2121 02:04:35,000 --> 02:04:38,600 highest probability of doing it. But they fall victim to this, 2122 02:04:38,600 --> 02:04:41,400 like, you know, snake eating its own tail thing where they told 2123 02:04:41,400 --> 02:04:44,920 everyone Debo's the best bet, therefore everyone plays Debo 2124 02:04:44,920 --> 02:04:47,920 and jacks the ownership way up and it makes the other plays 2125 02:04:47,920 --> 02:04:50,200 better. So it's just to me, I just want 2126 02:04:50,200 --> 02:04:54,480 to remind myself that when you get a spot like that where the 2127 02:04:54,480 --> 02:04:59,400 market is going to be way too overconfident in how a really 2128 02:04:59,400 --> 02:05:01,920 good offense is going to get there, when there's a lot of 2129 02:05:02,520 --> 02:05:07,080 very similar weapons, like we're not talking like Garrett Wilson 2130 02:05:07,080 --> 02:05:09,760 versus Mike Williams was the projection gap. 2131 02:05:09,760 --> 02:05:12,760 You know where one of these is like clearly a different tier of 2132 02:05:12,760 --> 02:05:15,720 player is Debo Samuel and Brandon Iuke. 2133 02:05:15,720 --> 02:05:17,720 Where and George Kittle were all of these. 2134 02:05:17,840 --> 02:05:22,920 One A1B. 1C yeah, yeah. So I, I just, this is me saying 2135 02:05:22,920 --> 02:05:26,480 it out loud to remind myself and also to tell the listeners. 2136 02:05:26,480 --> 02:05:30,880 Like when you see a spot like this where you, you get just 2137 02:05:31,080 --> 02:05:34,800 such a huge projection on one player relative to players of a 2138 02:05:34,800 --> 02:05:39,520 similar tier on their offense. Like, like if you got a Mike 2139 02:05:39,520 --> 02:05:44,400 Evans is projected for 20 and Chris Godwin is projected for 14 2140 02:05:44,760 --> 02:05:48,120 type of situation, you know, that's a spot where you just 2141 02:05:48,120 --> 02:05:53,160 say, yeah, that the projection could even be right, but the 2142 02:05:53,160 --> 02:05:56,720 field's going to overreact to that and not synthesize that 2143 02:05:56,720 --> 02:05:59,920 data correctly. And so I'm I'm just going to 2144 02:05:59,920 --> 02:06:04,080 lead into people not understanding how probabilistic 2145 02:06:04,080 --> 02:06:08,840 range of outcomes work. And and also not, not not 2146 02:06:08,840 --> 02:06:13,000 realizing that other people are also going to to, to play that 2147 02:06:13,000 --> 02:06:14,880 projection. Yeah, yeah. 2148 02:06:15,200 --> 02:06:19,800 And it's such a simple thing. So like, I mean the, the one 2149 02:06:19,800 --> 02:06:24,480 that I really want to attack right now and sorry, I'm, I'm 2150 02:06:24,560 --> 02:06:26,720 just shooting from the hip here. I didn't have this one in the 2151 02:06:26,720 --> 02:06:30,720 show notes, but I feel like everyone is so gung ho about DJ 2152 02:06:30,720 --> 02:06:32,760 Moore now. DJ Moore just had a really big 2153 02:06:32,760 --> 02:06:34,640 week. Caleb Williams is looking good. 2154 02:06:34,640 --> 02:06:39,120 Like I feel like everywhere I, I look, I see all these people 2155 02:06:39,120 --> 02:06:42,120 talking about how DJ Moore is the alpha in the offense. 2156 02:06:42,120 --> 02:06:45,800 He's about to feast with Caleb Williams and it's like a man. 2157 02:06:46,240 --> 02:06:50,040 I kind of think that Roma Dunze and Keenan Allen both could 2158 02:06:50,040 --> 02:06:51,720 probably get there in any given week. 2159 02:06:51,720 --> 02:06:54,840 Like maybe DJ Moore is the projection favorite, but I don't 2160 02:06:54,840 --> 02:06:57,040 think it's quite as clear cut as people are think. 2161 02:06:57,240 --> 02:07:01,720 Like DJ Moore and Keenan Keenan Allen and Roma Dunze through the 2162 02:07:01,720 --> 02:07:06,880 1st 4 weeks have like identical targets in the games where they 2163 02:07:06,880 --> 02:07:09,520 both played. So it's like I kind of think 2164 02:07:09,520 --> 02:07:12,680 that both of these guys, they're not identical in the same games, 2165 02:07:12,680 --> 02:07:15,800 but they each had the same number of targets in different 2166 02:07:15,800 --> 02:07:19,080 games. So I just kind of think they're 2167 02:07:19,080 --> 02:07:21,400 both live to put up the same type of game. 2168 02:07:21,400 --> 02:07:24,240 We just saw from DJ Moore and people are just overconfident 2169 02:07:24,240 --> 02:07:26,600 because DJ Moore just got had a really big game. 2170 02:07:26,600 --> 02:07:30,880 So that's another one where I'm yeah, want to fade to 2171 02:07:30,880 --> 02:07:33,720 overconfidence there. All right, we'll, we'll speed up 2172 02:07:33,720 --> 02:07:36,120 here. I had a note. 2173 02:07:36,320 --> 02:07:40,600 This is a really important one, but if you look in the bottom 2174 02:07:40,600 --> 02:07:45,720 left hand corner, you know right around 40% weighted targets per 2175 02:07:45,720 --> 02:07:48,400 route run little under 10 fantasy points per game. 2176 02:07:48,680 --> 02:07:51,960 I'm just wondering when is Jerry Judy supposed to bury me? 2177 02:07:53,560 --> 02:07:55,120 Yeah, he's that. He's not, is he? 2178 02:07:55,640 --> 02:07:58,960 No. He he buries you when when Flame 2179 02:07:59,000 --> 02:08:05,680 Flamez becomes a starter. Yeah, if we get some Jameis, 2180 02:08:05,680 --> 02:08:08,920 maybe Jerry Judy can bury me. But man. 2181 02:08:09,400 --> 02:08:12,960 I haven't watched the Browns play but I've seen some comments 2182 02:08:12,960 --> 02:08:17,920 that what's his name? Deshaun Watson is having the 2183 02:08:17,920 --> 02:08:22,320 worst stretch of QB games. Among the worst stretch of QB 2184 02:08:22,320 --> 02:08:25,160 games in in in the modern kind of like. 2185 02:08:25,440 --> 02:08:27,240 Some of the passes are just weird. 2186 02:08:27,280 --> 02:08:29,840 Like there's somewhere it looks like, oh, that's like a, that's 2187 02:08:29,840 --> 02:08:32,200 like a normal miss. That's like a miss that a normal 2188 02:08:32,200 --> 02:08:34,200 quarterback would have. But every once in a while 2189 02:08:34,200 --> 02:08:37,080 there's one where it's like, what the fuck just happened? 2190 02:08:38,400 --> 02:08:43,240 It doesn't like like I don't see any other quarterbacks missing 2191 02:08:43,240 --> 02:08:44,840 that same way, if that makes sense. 2192 02:08:44,840 --> 02:08:49,600 Like I'm watching, we're like, I, if you want my, my theory on 2193 02:08:49,600 --> 02:08:51,960 what's happening, like biomechanically, his body did 2194 02:08:51,960 --> 02:08:53,680 not do what he expected it to do there. 2195 02:08:53,680 --> 02:08:56,520 Like the ball comes out, like he thought his arm could continue 2196 02:08:56,520 --> 02:08:58,920 moving in it, like his shoulder got caught or something. 2197 02:08:58,920 --> 02:09:01,840 It's very right. His body's not doing what he 2198 02:09:01,840 --> 02:09:04,080 thinks it's going to happen. So seems bad. 2199 02:09:05,360 --> 02:09:06,880 All right, we'll, we'll speed up here. 2200 02:09:06,880 --> 02:09:08,320 Let's let's move to the next chart. 2201 02:09:08,320 --> 02:09:11,160 Unless you had anyone else on this to talk about. 2202 02:09:13,280 --> 02:09:15,920 OK, Brian Thomas, breakout season. 2203 02:09:16,040 --> 02:09:19,640 It's here. Despite poor quarterback play 2204 02:09:19,640 --> 02:09:23,200 from Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas is inevitable. 2205 02:09:23,720 --> 02:09:28,560 It turns out the guy who scored a million touchdowns even though 2206 02:09:28,560 --> 02:09:31,720 he was running opposite Malik Neighbors target domination. 2207 02:09:31,720 --> 02:09:34,000 King happens to be very good at football. 2208 02:09:35,000 --> 02:09:38,800 Yep. Yeah, I don't even have anything 2209 02:09:38,800 --> 02:09:39,240 else. Sorry. 2210 02:09:40,000 --> 02:09:41,720 Sorry, I'm pretty tired. And you're good. 2211 02:09:41,800 --> 02:09:45,400 We're. He's he's playing well and then 2212 02:09:45,400 --> 02:09:48,360 hopefully his route chair can kind of creep up. 2213 02:09:48,880 --> 02:09:53,400 I don't see how it does it. He's very Gabe Davis is like 2214 02:09:53,920 --> 02:09:58,240 such a caricature next to Blake. Gabe Davis next to Brian Thomas 2215 02:09:58,240 --> 02:10:00,840 looks like they literally signed Gabe Davis to make the Brian 2216 02:10:00,840 --> 02:10:02,320 Thomas pick look that much better. 2217 02:10:04,600 --> 02:10:08,600 Sorry, Gabe. Yeah, he's still hanging around. 2218 02:10:08,600 --> 02:10:11,560 He's been firmly in that around 80% range. 2219 02:10:11,680 --> 02:10:14,160 But like they, they have to find a way to increase that. 2220 02:10:14,360 --> 02:10:17,480 You know he by the end of the season, he will absolutely be 2221 02:10:17,480 --> 02:10:23,400 the alpha on the team. OK, Josh Downs, man, this is a 2222 02:10:23,400 --> 02:10:25,280 really interesting one with Flacco. 2223 02:10:25,280 --> 02:10:28,040 Flacco got out there and was just slinging it. 2224 02:10:28,160 --> 02:10:31,000 Josh Downs absolutely looked like his favorite target. 2225 02:10:32,640 --> 02:10:35,120 Looked like the best receiver on the team by my eye. 2226 02:10:35,680 --> 02:10:39,920 I was watching a lot of this game because I had a ton of 2227 02:10:40,640 --> 02:10:45,960 Colts and Jag stacks played a lot of Joe Flacco in in the dog 2228 02:10:45,960 --> 02:10:50,280 bowl and DFS would have would have been really good if we 2229 02:10:50,280 --> 02:10:53,040 didn't have the nuclear Bureau week because Joe Flacco was was 2230 02:10:53,040 --> 02:10:56,920 kind of crazy. But anyway, Josh Downs, I I 2231 02:10:56,920 --> 02:11:00,400 think is asserting his dominance as the wide receiver one on the 2232 02:11:00,400 --> 02:11:02,280 team. Like he he will be the one that 2233 02:11:02,280 --> 02:11:05,840 leads the team and targets. But there's one small wrinkle to 2234 02:11:05,840 --> 02:11:10,200 that analysis and that is when Anthony Richardson comes back. 2235 02:11:11,120 --> 02:11:16,000 I don't know how good that is for Josh Downs game because it's 2236 02:11:16,000 --> 02:11:18,960 just gonna the amount of pass volume is gonna shrink it. 2237 02:11:18,960 --> 02:11:24,920 It transforms into this like deep ball, like low completion 2238 02:11:24,920 --> 02:11:28,680 percentage type stuff. And I don't know what, what are 2239 02:11:28,680 --> 02:11:30,800 your thoughts on Josh Downs here going forward? 2240 02:11:31,960 --> 02:11:38,480 So Josh Downs, I guess what one thing that that's kind of 2241 02:11:38,480 --> 02:11:43,720 standing out to me is so he's in this 70% route share and then 2242 02:11:43,720 --> 02:11:47,640 you look what where his routes are and it's almost all from the 2243 02:11:47,640 --> 02:11:50,520 slot. So it does seem like they seem 2244 02:11:50,520 --> 02:11:53,000 as a kind of exclusively a slot receiver. 2245 02:11:53,320 --> 02:11:57,560 But then when he plays, he's getting like, if I just do a 2246 02:11:57,560 --> 02:12:00,640 pure average here, he's getting like 35% targets per run. 2247 02:12:01,600 --> 02:12:07,000 So absolutely overcoming the, the lack of of route share 2248 02:12:07,000 --> 02:12:12,000 there. And and then so last week he got 2249 02:12:12,000 --> 02:12:18,160 12 targets, 6.8 yards a dot. Some of that probably was and 2250 02:12:18,160 --> 02:12:20,800 Joe Flacco, but I, I think you're right. 2251 02:12:21,200 --> 02:12:25,040 It's it's not like he's getting these crazy, crazy deep balls 2252 02:12:25,880 --> 02:12:31,400 and you kind of that solid player kind of doesn't really 2253 02:12:31,400 --> 02:12:36,640 work when Anthony Richardson is is a quarterback or Anthony 2254 02:12:36,640 --> 02:12:38,680 Richardson needs to play a whole lot better. 2255 02:12:39,480 --> 02:12:41,640 Yeah, that's, that's my assessment too. 2256 02:12:42,840 --> 02:12:45,080 Exciting because I really like Josh Downs. 2257 02:12:45,080 --> 02:12:47,240 He's a really good player. Drafted a bunch of them. 2258 02:12:47,560 --> 02:12:50,120 Would love to play him in, in weekly formats. 2259 02:12:50,800 --> 02:12:53,360 I just don't think that I will with Anthony Richardson. 2260 02:12:53,360 --> 02:12:56,120 I, I think, you know, certainly off of a good week, his price 2261 02:12:56,120 --> 02:12:58,280 will be too high. His ownership will probably be, 2262 02:12:58,720 --> 02:13:01,840 I would assume that his ownership doesn't, is not high 2263 02:13:01,840 --> 02:13:05,040 this week 'cause I think it's not a state secret that his game 2264 02:13:05,040 --> 02:13:07,360 probably doesn't mesh the best with Anthony Richardson. 2265 02:13:07,360 --> 02:13:14,600 But yeah, OK, so I've I've got so look where Deonte Johnson is 2266 02:13:14,600 --> 02:13:16,800 on this chart. Like pretty incredible 70% 2267 02:13:16,800 --> 02:13:20,800 weighted targets per route run averaging strong, you know, 12 2268 02:13:20,800 --> 02:13:24,840 1/2 ish fantasy points per game. Pretty pretty solid roll here, 2269 02:13:24,920 --> 02:13:26,360 right? Yeah. 2270 02:13:27,040 --> 02:13:31,360 Right below him is Lad Mcconkey, rookie wide receiver for the 2271 02:13:31,360 --> 02:13:35,680 Chargers, like very quietly becoming the wide receiver one 2272 02:13:35,680 --> 02:13:38,720 on the team. Now the problem with Lad 2273 02:13:38,720 --> 02:13:42,400 Mcconkey like and making a one to one like, hey, he and Deontay 2274 02:13:42,400 --> 02:13:45,360 Johnson are right next to each other on the chart comparison. 2275 02:13:45,880 --> 02:13:49,920 You can actually see it, the example right beneath him is 2276 02:13:49,920 --> 02:13:52,160 George Pickens. The problem is the pass volume, 2277 02:13:52,720 --> 02:13:54,560 right? Like they're, you're just the, 2278 02:13:54,600 --> 02:13:58,280 the volume for the Chargers pass offense is going to be pretty 2279 02:13:58,280 --> 02:14:01,400 low just 'cause they they don't like to pass. 2280 02:14:01,400 --> 02:14:05,200 They they haven't been. And I mean, I don't even know 2281 02:14:05,200 --> 02:14:08,400 what if the Chargers get pushed? Like, do they even pass that 2282 02:14:08,400 --> 02:14:11,680 much? So now here, here's the thing. 2283 02:14:11,680 --> 02:14:17,520 They're coming off the by. Maybe, just maybe they off the 2284 02:14:17,520 --> 02:14:19,560 by. They realize we should pass like 2285 02:14:19,560 --> 02:14:21,680 a little bit. I don't think that's likely. 2286 02:14:22,040 --> 02:14:24,600 Now they're Broncos, too. No, I don't think you're going 2287 02:14:24,600 --> 02:14:27,560 to get this moment of self reflection for Jim Harbaugh. 2288 02:14:27,560 --> 02:14:33,400 It's like, you know, my entire career, Greg, what's Greg Roman? 2289 02:14:33,800 --> 02:14:37,680 My entire career has been based around running the ball, but I 2290 02:14:37,680 --> 02:14:40,840 just had a week off. Fuck it, the big. 2291 02:14:40,920 --> 02:14:44,800 Scare now you also don't have a great match up against the 2292 02:14:44,800 --> 02:14:47,880 Broncos too, right? Like I think their past defense 2293 02:14:47,880 --> 02:14:50,240 is pretty for real now. Yeah. 2294 02:14:51,400 --> 02:14:55,000 I, I don't know if if Mcconkey draws Sir Tan or not. 2295 02:14:55,000 --> 02:14:58,320 That'd be interesting. I mean because like if QJ draws 2296 02:14:58,320 --> 02:15:01,240 Sir Tan, that actually seems kind of bullish to me. 2297 02:15:01,240 --> 02:15:04,320 I just think you might end up with Mcconkey getting just 2298 02:15:04,720 --> 02:15:07,400 everything he can handle in the limited pass attempts that they 2299 02:15:07,400 --> 02:15:10,000 throw. Now, I I'm spending all this 2300 02:15:10,000 --> 02:15:13,560 time on Lad Mcconkey because he goes undrafted in dog bowls. 2301 02:15:13,920 --> 02:15:18,400 And the receivers that are going ahead of him are a little gross 2302 02:15:18,400 --> 02:15:20,440 to me. And I wanted to hear your, your 2303 02:15:20,440 --> 02:15:23,000 thoughts on this. And like what? 2304 02:15:23,200 --> 02:15:26,680 I'm just gonna read some receivers and I want you to tell 2305 02:15:26,680 --> 02:15:30,840 me stop when I get to 1, where you would take Lad Mcconkey over 2306 02:15:30,840 --> 02:15:31,520 him. OK. 2307 02:15:33,000 --> 02:15:43,080 Amari Cooper, Rashid Shihi, George Pickens, Dante V on Wix, 2308 02:15:44,840 --> 02:15:48,360 Jalen Tolbert. Yeah, these are all guys that 2309 02:15:48,360 --> 02:15:51,680 that are like, you know, I can see how they get there, but 2310 02:15:51,680 --> 02:15:53,600 like, I'm not, I'm not crazy about them either. 2311 02:15:54,120 --> 02:15:57,160 Right, these are all every one of these players, Devante Adams, 2312 02:15:57,160 --> 02:16:00,200 Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Pittman, Rashad Bateman, 2313 02:16:00,600 --> 02:16:03,400 all of them go ahead of live Mcconkey. 2314 02:16:04,120 --> 02:16:10,600 And like with I, I don't know, I just I think that he's squarely 2315 02:16:10,600 --> 02:16:14,640 in that tier of I mean, like shit, he's right next to Pickens 2316 02:16:14,640 --> 02:16:17,120 on this chart. Like he's and they're they're 2317 02:16:17,120 --> 02:16:20,520 both in offenses that aren't passing very much like and and 2318 02:16:20,520 --> 02:16:24,680 like lad, Mcconkey is not some like short yardage guy. 2319 02:16:24,680 --> 02:16:26,680 Like he can operate downfield too. 2320 02:16:26,680 --> 02:16:30,280 Like he he has he's he's A-44 speed guy. 2321 02:16:30,280 --> 02:16:36,000 Like I just I kind of think that just like people played George 2322 02:16:36,000 --> 02:16:39,680 Pickens and and got there on the, you know, the big Justin 2323 02:16:39,680 --> 02:16:43,520 Fields eruption week, I think you could do worse than last 2324 02:16:43,520 --> 02:16:46,920 round lab Mcconkey pick this week on a heavy bye week. 2325 02:16:48,040 --> 02:16:49,480 That's all I'm saying. That's all. 2326 02:16:50,879 --> 02:16:58,639 Yeah, yeah. So and and then the concern 2327 02:16:58,639 --> 02:17:01,879 there is, is the volume, but it's not like that bad. 2328 02:17:02,440 --> 02:17:06,080 Like and Justin Herbert's expected points from passing is 2329 02:17:06,080 --> 02:17:12,000 11.6. Like that's low, but it's not 2330 02:17:12,240 --> 02:17:18,559 that bad. Like their car is 12.2 and Lamar 2331 02:17:19,480 --> 02:17:24,080 well Jaden Dino's is 11.8, Josh Allen 11.7. 2332 02:17:25,440 --> 02:17:28,160 Yeah, yeah, but you're you're listing all these guys here who 2333 02:17:28,160 --> 02:17:30,480 I really am not wanting to play any of their receipt. 2334 02:17:30,480 --> 02:17:32,400 Like I don't want to play a Josh Allen receiver. 2335 02:17:32,400 --> 02:17:34,719 I don't want to play a Jayden Daniels receiver outside of 2336 02:17:34,719 --> 02:17:36,200 Terry Mclaurin who gets everything. 2337 02:17:36,200 --> 02:17:39,680 Now, I guess you could say, well, lad, Mcconkey is going to 2338 02:17:39,680 --> 02:17:41,920 be the gets everything guy. I think that's. 2339 02:17:41,920 --> 02:17:43,680 What you have, that's what needs to happen. 2340 02:17:43,680 --> 02:17:46,719 Yeah, yeah. And I it's a bet I'm willing to 2341 02:17:46,719 --> 02:17:50,719 make because I just the secret is stillwell kept on lad 2342 02:17:50,719 --> 02:17:52,559 Mcconkey. This is one where you can get 2343 02:17:53,240 --> 02:17:55,840 you can you can be ahead of the field on this one. 2344 02:17:56,240 --> 02:17:59,559 It's a bad matchup, like they're going to run the ball a bunch, 2345 02:18:00,240 --> 02:18:04,400 but I I just think I believe in the talent of the player enough 2346 02:18:04,840 --> 02:18:08,760 to get there. Yeah, yeah, make, make makes 2347 02:18:08,760 --> 02:18:10,280 sense for sure. All right. 2348 02:18:10,360 --> 02:18:11,840 Let's let's move to this last chart. 2349 02:18:11,840 --> 02:18:18,040 We'll take us home. OK. 2350 02:18:18,040 --> 02:18:20,760 There's only, there's really only two guys I had on this 2351 02:18:20,760 --> 02:18:23,240 chart and I I've got notes on them. 2352 02:18:23,240 --> 02:18:24,440 I can knock them out pretty quick. 2353 02:18:24,440 --> 02:18:25,719 But I wanted to give you a chance. 2354 02:18:25,719 --> 02:18:27,959 Was there anyone other than these two guys I've got in the 2355 02:18:27,959 --> 02:18:30,120 show notes that you wanted to talk about here? 2356 02:18:30,920 --> 02:18:35,600 And no, no, nothing, nothing really stands. 2357 02:18:35,600 --> 02:18:38,920 I mean, you're, you're kind of still disappointed with the CK 2358 02:18:38,920 --> 02:18:43,959 on Coleman still in this like really low route share. 2359 02:18:45,840 --> 02:18:48,080 It is. It is progressing positively for 2360 02:18:48,080 --> 02:18:50,280 him though. You can see he's up to the 65% 2361 02:18:50,280 --> 02:18:53,200 to 70% all the seats are now. Yeah. 2362 02:18:53,200 --> 02:18:54,799 So I'm just looking at the week to week. 2363 02:18:55,080 --> 02:19:00,959 So his his most recent, OK, OK. So it's it's being knocked down 2364 02:19:00,959 --> 02:19:04,879 by a 31% route share and week tree. 2365 02:19:05,280 --> 02:19:07,200 And that was the. Two, we could be disciplined. 2366 02:19:08,000 --> 02:19:15,799 Yeah, the last, the last time 2 has been 7372% and so still not 2367 02:19:15,799 --> 02:19:21,840 great on a low volume offense. And then just 15% target for 2368 02:19:21,840 --> 02:19:27,840 outrun in, in week, 419% in week 5. 2369 02:19:29,240 --> 02:19:32,520 Like I, I think, I think you have to be a little bit 2370 02:19:32,520 --> 02:19:36,840 concerned about Keon Coleman. Yeah, I would be concerned. 2371 02:19:36,840 --> 02:19:40,520 The the reason I'm I'm not as concerned about Keon Coleman is 2372 02:19:40,520 --> 02:19:44,799 that they're nothing is working for them in the passing game, so 2373 02:19:44,799 --> 02:19:46,959 they have to try something and to. 2374 02:19:47,040 --> 02:19:49,600 Try something. But The thing is their early 2375 02:19:49,600 --> 02:19:52,720 receiver, yeah, it's really weird that they're not getting 2376 02:19:52,720 --> 02:19:54,520 involved. It's really weird. 2377 02:19:54,720 --> 02:19:58,640 I think they're stupid as fuck. I think, I think the Bills 2378 02:19:58,640 --> 02:20:02,440 organization hit their head a few too many times because. 2379 02:20:02,480 --> 02:20:04,600 Why isn't Josh Allen targeting him more? 2380 02:20:04,960 --> 02:20:09,200 I don't know, it's not working like what you're trying isn't 2381 02:20:09,200 --> 02:20:14,280 working like. So I I think that this it's it's 2382 02:20:14,280 --> 02:20:16,920 one of those things where right now the bills keep touching the 2383 02:20:16,920 --> 02:20:19,120 stove. They're like maybe if we just 2384 02:20:19,560 --> 02:20:22,560 what if we throw I I had a note. I don't even I. 2385 02:20:22,560 --> 02:20:29,640 Don't think we hit this it this is the this is the JSN root tree 2386 02:20:29,640 --> 02:20:32,160 where it's or. No, not the JSN root tree. 2387 02:20:32,520 --> 02:20:37,160 And who's this George Pickens root tree from two years ago 2388 02:20:37,160 --> 02:20:39,440 where all they're doing is trying to go routes? 2389 02:20:39,440 --> 02:20:41,400 Yeah, it's just the. Same type of route. 2390 02:20:41,440 --> 02:20:44,200 So like, yeah, I guess you do need that to be mixed up a bit. 2391 02:20:44,360 --> 02:20:46,360 But I I had this note on Josh Allen. 2392 02:20:46,360 --> 02:20:50,280 I think it's it adds good context to to Keon Coleman. 2393 02:20:50,960 --> 02:20:54,480 They have a 58% pass rate that's the same as New England with 2394 02:20:54,480 --> 02:20:58,200 Jacoby Brissett. The highest attempts that Josh 2395 02:20:58,200 --> 02:21:00,360 Allen has on the season so far is 30. 2396 02:21:00,960 --> 02:21:04,040 Last season, prior to firing their offensive coordinator and 2397 02:21:04,040 --> 02:21:09,040 switching to Joe Brady, he only had two games lower than 30 pass 2398 02:21:09,040 --> 02:21:12,880 attempts. So this this like revert back to 2399 02:21:13,000 --> 02:21:16,680 the Stone Age thing that they're trying isn't working. 2400 02:21:17,600 --> 02:21:20,560 They've they've managed to win a couple games because Josh Allen 2401 02:21:20,560 --> 02:21:24,520 will do Superman things. But there's only so many times 2402 02:21:24,520 --> 02:21:27,120 you can touch the stove and get burned and keep putting your 2403 02:21:27,120 --> 02:21:30,000 hand on it. And I've got to think that as 2404 02:21:30,000 --> 02:21:33,200 Trogola did it, as I believe that the Bills coaching staff is 2405 02:21:33,520 --> 02:21:37,360 that there's only you can only burn your hand so many times 2406 02:21:37,360 --> 02:21:41,040 before you realize like, man, this isn't working anymore. 2407 02:21:41,040 --> 02:21:44,720 So that's why I think like Keon Coleman in the short term, 2408 02:21:44,760 --> 02:21:47,000 definitely agree with you. Like it's probably, it's going 2409 02:21:47,000 --> 02:21:49,960 to take a little bit, but I think eventually when they 2410 02:21:49,960 --> 02:21:53,680 figure their shit out, they might have to switch to using 2411 02:21:53,680 --> 02:21:55,920 Keon Coleman a little more the ball more. 2412 02:21:55,920 --> 02:22:00,040 It's it's it it there, you've got some probability there that 2413 02:22:00,040 --> 02:22:02,480 it's just mismanagement and it's not per play I. 2414 02:22:02,800 --> 02:22:07,280 Think it's a high probability of mismanagement, but OK, we'll 2415 02:22:07,280 --> 02:22:09,120 we'll hit these last two guys I had notes on. 2416 02:22:10,440 --> 02:22:12,640 OK, hear me out. We talked about the running back 2417 02:22:12,680 --> 02:22:15,960 versus the Colts, but can I interest you in some DeAndre 2418 02:22:15,960 --> 02:22:20,360 Hopkins against the Colts? Does he still have his his his 2419 02:22:20,360 --> 02:22:23,760 knee injury? So, OK, I actually did some 2420 02:22:23,760 --> 02:22:27,280 digging on this because there were people there were some 2421 02:22:27,280 --> 02:22:30,680 people that were floating the DeAndre Hopkins is going to get 2422 02:22:30,680 --> 02:22:32,760 traded to the Chiefs. Nonsense. 2423 02:22:33,240 --> 02:22:39,080 And I, yeah, And I, I said that's not going to happen 2424 02:22:39,200 --> 02:22:42,480 because this player cannot even pass a physical for the Chiefs 2425 02:22:42,480 --> 02:22:45,680 right now because they're going to examine him and be like, 2426 02:22:45,680 --> 02:22:47,640 yeah, we don't really want to sign you. 2427 02:22:47,640 --> 02:22:50,800 We don't want to trade for you because you have no, you've torn 2428 02:22:50,800 --> 02:22:53,040 your MCL. So here's you're not going to 2429 02:22:53,040 --> 02:22:54,640 pass this physical, bud. Sorry. 2430 02:22:54,920 --> 02:23:00,200 So I, I, I threw that out there and I was informed that back in, 2431 02:23:00,200 --> 02:23:04,440 I think it was week 3, DeAndre Hopkins came out and adamantly 2432 02:23:04,440 --> 02:23:08,720 denied that his MCL was torn, which is very weird because 2433 02:23:08,720 --> 02:23:12,160 DeAndre Hopkins is the one who gave the interview before the 2434 02:23:12,160 --> 02:23:15,480 season that he tore his MCL. So I went back, I looked at the 2435 02:23:15,480 --> 02:23:19,440 original story, DeAndre Hopkins explicit the, the exact quote 2436 02:23:19,440 --> 02:23:23,760 was that he tore his MCL and that these things take up to a 2437 02:23:23,760 --> 02:23:27,200 year to heal and that he'd torn his MCL before, so he had 2438 02:23:27,200 --> 02:23:30,040 experience with it. Sounded like a torn MCL to me. 2439 02:23:30,400 --> 02:23:34,720 But then in week 3, he explicitly says he did not tear 2440 02:23:34,720 --> 02:23:38,400 his MCL and then it was more like a more like a sprain. 2441 02:23:38,480 --> 02:23:40,400 He said it's more like an ankle sprain. 2442 02:23:40,920 --> 02:23:45,960 So one of one of these two statements is is clearly false, 2443 02:23:46,120 --> 02:23:48,600 right? I don't know which one it is, 2444 02:23:49,120 --> 02:23:53,240 but we have seen his route rate increase, you know, from. 2445 02:23:53,280 --> 02:23:56,840 Increase to 57%. Yes, but it's increased from the 2446 02:23:56,840 --> 02:23:59,240 start of the season, so increased. 2447 02:23:59,240 --> 02:24:05,440 From 24% in week 1 to 57% in week 4, right? 2448 02:24:06,840 --> 02:24:10,120 So you're not into the DeAndre Hopkins against the coals thing? 2449 02:24:12,280 --> 02:24:18,680 It seems pretty tin, OK. More or less than the DeAndre 2450 02:24:18,680 --> 02:24:20,480 Hopkins is getting traded to the Chiefs. 2451 02:24:21,600 --> 02:24:24,840 I mean, I think he has a much higher probability of scoring 20 2452 02:24:24,840 --> 02:24:28,040 points as we getting traded. To the Chiefs, I think DeAndre 2453 02:24:28,040 --> 02:24:32,160 Hopkins has a much higher chance of being the first NFL player on 2454 02:24:32,160 --> 02:24:34,000 the moon than being traded to the Chiefs. 2455 02:24:36,080 --> 02:24:39,120 All right, last last guy. Are we doing the Juju thing? 2456 02:24:41,440 --> 02:24:48,440 Is he just Diet Rashi? You know, you see, you see these 2457 02:24:48,440 --> 02:24:50,840 vets come out and, and they have good games. 2458 02:24:54,200 --> 02:25:00,360 Like so he had what he had a 4.5 yards per out run, that 28% 2459 02:25:00,360 --> 02:25:07,880 target per out run. I like, I don't, I, I can buy 2460 02:25:07,880 --> 02:25:11,520 that he has his role now. I like, I don't really do not 2461 02:25:11,520 --> 02:25:13,640 buy that it's gonna work, that it's gonna work. 2462 02:25:13,880 --> 02:25:16,320 Very often. That's a, that's a good 2463 02:25:16,320 --> 02:25:19,920 assessment, yeah. That that. 2464 02:25:20,000 --> 02:25:21,360 That's what I think about it anyway. 2465 02:25:21,360 --> 02:25:25,480 Like he he got cooked. Didn't he get cooked by the 2466 02:25:25,480 --> 02:25:27,840 Patriots? He did like he didn't get cut by 2467 02:25:27,840 --> 02:25:29,960 the Patriots, so. They were like, you know what, 2468 02:25:30,120 --> 02:25:31,880 you're the worst receiver we have. 2469 02:25:32,160 --> 02:25:35,880 Like, see you bud. The Patriots decided booty KJ 2470 02:25:35,880 --> 02:25:41,360 Osbourne, Kendrick Bourne on IR with a torn ACL like all those 2471 02:25:41,360 --> 02:25:45,600 guys were better than Juju so. And he didn't have like, some, 2472 02:25:51,320 --> 02:26:00,200 OK, so they did own a big a big salary, but they're gonna have 2473 02:26:00,200 --> 02:26:04,960 to pay him anyway. Yeah, I mean, listen, I don't 2474 02:26:04,960 --> 02:26:10,320 think Juju is very good, but that's welcome to the Chiefs 2475 02:26:10,320 --> 02:26:13,240 wide receiver room. You know, no one, no one here is 2476 02:26:13,240 --> 02:26:15,360 very good. There's Xavier Worthy who is 2477 02:26:15,360 --> 02:26:17,640 still getting the Andy Reid like, well, he's a rookie, so 2478 02:26:17,640 --> 02:26:18,800 we're going to bring him on slowly. 2479 02:26:18,800 --> 02:26:21,480 Think Xavier Worthy is going to do the same thing that we saw 2480 02:26:21,480 --> 02:26:24,480 from Roshi Rice last year? Or it's like, Oh my God, why 2481 02:26:24,480 --> 02:26:26,800 aren't they using Roshi more? We're so frustrated or so 2482 02:26:26,800 --> 02:26:29,000 frustrated. Then like by weeks 8:00 to 2483 02:26:29,000 --> 02:26:30,840 12:00, there's going to be signs of life. 2484 02:26:31,120 --> 02:26:34,120 And then down the stretch, you're going to be really happy 2485 02:26:34,120 --> 02:26:37,520 about Xavier Worthy. But it's like, I've seen this 2486 02:26:37,600 --> 02:26:41,720 show before with Andy Reid and. You know, I think the, I think 2487 02:26:41,720 --> 02:26:48,400 the Xavier wordy piece is a little bit different because the 2488 02:26:48,480 --> 02:26:51,920 issue with Rashi, it was like, oh, they're only playing them on 2489 02:26:51,920 --> 02:26:57,960 40% of snaps, but those 40% of snaps he's getting like a 25% 2490 02:26:58,960 --> 02:27:01,640 targets per out run. And then he looks incredible on 2491 02:27:01,640 --> 02:27:07,600 it. So Wordy is he actually has a 2492 02:27:07,680 --> 02:27:12,120 pretty solid route rate. Like I think it's like in the 2493 02:27:12,160 --> 02:27:16,520 80%, but he's not getting targeted that much on it. 2494 02:27:17,360 --> 02:27:21,040 And I, I mean, I bet the reason for that is that they literally 2495 02:27:21,040 --> 02:27:25,680 just have running go routes. So you need them to expand it 2496 02:27:25,680 --> 02:27:28,680 rather than like playing more. They need to expand this route 2497 02:27:28,680 --> 02:27:31,680 tree and like that can happen with young players where they're 2498 02:27:31,680 --> 02:27:34,520 like, yeah, we're just going to ask you to do this one thing and 2499 02:27:34,520 --> 02:27:38,480 that's it. And similar to Keon Coleman. 2500 02:27:38,920 --> 02:27:40,320 Yeah. And that's, I think that's 2501 02:27:40,320 --> 02:27:44,320 really good analysis because it is, it is different than the way 2502 02:27:44,320 --> 02:27:48,240 the Rashi situation developed. I think it's, there's a couple 2503 02:27:48,240 --> 02:27:52,000 reasons why it's different #1 like they, they kind of needed 2504 02:27:52,000 --> 02:27:54,200 that skill set from Worthy on the field. 2505 02:27:54,200 --> 02:27:56,760 They needed that deep speed to be able to take the yeah. 2506 02:27:56,880 --> 02:27:59,200 They probably still do. They do. 2507 02:28:00,040 --> 02:28:04,760 They also had going into the season this the plan was very 2508 02:28:04,760 --> 02:28:06,880 likely. Rashi works the underneath 2509 02:28:06,880 --> 02:28:10,440 stuff, Hollywood's kind of the intermediate guy and Xavier 2510 02:28:10,440 --> 02:28:13,960 Worthy takes the top up the defense and Travis, you can you 2511 02:28:13,960 --> 02:28:15,920 can chill. We won't pepper you with a ton 2512 02:28:15,920 --> 02:28:18,080 of volume. We'll kind of save you tell the 2513 02:28:18,080 --> 02:28:21,720 playoffs and then you and Rashi, you're both the dynamic duo 2514 02:28:21,720 --> 02:28:23,040 underneath. You're the two option. 2515 02:28:23,040 --> 02:28:26,600 Now we kind of add you into the fold and ramp up your volume. 2516 02:28:26,920 --> 02:28:29,920 We're seeing the plan have to change, changed before our eyes. 2517 02:28:30,200 --> 02:28:33,920 And so I guess what I'm saying is I, I just think over the 2518 02:28:33,920 --> 02:28:37,200 season, the plan can change with worthy, like you said, where 2519 02:28:37,200 --> 02:28:40,120 they add more routes for him, because one thing I've seen a 2520 02:28:40,120 --> 02:28:42,480 lot of people get wrong about Savior worthy is I've seen a 2521 02:28:42,480 --> 02:28:45,920 bunch of people say, Oh, he was, he's an incomplete prospect. 2522 02:28:45,920 --> 02:28:48,320 He's a project. He's just a, he's just a burner. 2523 02:28:48,320 --> 02:28:52,240 It's like don't don't talk about that if you don't know what 2524 02:28:52,240 --> 02:28:53,920 you're talking about. You're just you're telling on 2525 02:28:53,920 --> 02:28:56,360 yourself that you never looked at his prospect profile because 2526 02:28:56,360 --> 02:29:01,640 Xavier worthy won it in all areas throughout his like he did 2527 02:29:01,640 --> 02:29:05,600 different things in each year of his college career and he's the 2528 02:29:05,600 --> 02:29:09,360 only player to get in the same echelon as Marvin Harrison 2529 02:29:09,360 --> 02:29:12,160 junior and Malik neighbors as far as his targets per route 2530 02:29:12,160 --> 02:29:16,440 run. So like just, excuse me, his 2531 02:29:16,440 --> 02:29:20,120 yards per route run in college, like he was the only one to get 2532 02:29:20,120 --> 02:29:22,880 close to those two guys. I believe he had a better yards 2533 02:29:22,880 --> 02:29:25,640 per route run than them in I. Want to see he had him. 2534 02:29:26,120 --> 02:29:31,480 He I think at the time he had the best freshman year of all 2535 02:29:31,480 --> 02:29:35,000 time for a receiver. And they, they changed how they 2536 02:29:35,120 --> 02:29:39,280 used, yeah, they, they changed how they used him over the 2537 02:29:39,280 --> 02:29:41,720 course of his collegiate career as well. 2538 02:29:41,960 --> 02:29:45,200 Where he was, there was a season where he was more, more of a 2539 02:29:45,200 --> 02:29:47,040 deep ball guy. There was a season where he did 2540 02:29:47,040 --> 02:29:49,160 a lot of short underneath scheme stuff. 2541 02:29:50,040 --> 02:29:52,720 He, he had some intermediate passing in there as well. 2542 02:29:52,720 --> 02:29:55,800 And so, and then you also get the season where he has the 2543 02:29:55,800 --> 02:29:58,760 broken hand. So a bunch of the like he has, 2544 02:29:58,760 --> 02:30:01,480 you know, issues with efficiency because he's not catching stuff 2545 02:30:01,480 --> 02:30:03,120 because he's playing with a broken hand. 2546 02:30:03,480 --> 02:30:06,520 And then you also have Quinn, you were so he's playing with a 2547 02:30:06,520 --> 02:30:09,200 broken quarterback that can't actually throw the ball that's 2548 02:30:09,200 --> 02:30:12,360 catchable. So like you get a guy who is a 2549 02:30:12,360 --> 02:30:15,560 much more complete prospect than I think people realize. 2550 02:30:16,880 --> 02:30:20,840 And I so I, I just think that the, the breakout is like pretty 2551 02:30:20,840 --> 02:30:23,800 clear to me, like how it happens for the Chiefs. 2552 02:30:23,880 --> 02:30:27,520 And so I, I think to bring this all back to the are we doing the 2553 02:30:27,520 --> 02:30:31,480 Juju thing? Juju kind of seems like a guy 2554 02:30:31,480 --> 02:30:35,440 who, if there was someone who is going to lose work to a more 2555 02:30:35,440 --> 02:30:39,600 talented player, Juju is here as a stopgap until they feel more 2556 02:30:39,600 --> 02:30:43,640 confident that they can deploy worthy in all quadrants of the 2557 02:30:43,640 --> 02:30:46,360 field. And then you're really just 2558 02:30:46,360 --> 02:30:50,240 asking yourself like, well, is Juju going to be in losing snaps 2559 02:30:50,240 --> 02:30:53,400 to Mikkel Hardman? So Mikkel can run the deep clear 2560 02:30:53,400 --> 02:30:56,920 out stuff and then you're getting worthy operating is more 2561 02:30:56,920 --> 02:30:59,400 of like the secondary receiver behind Kelsey. 2562 02:30:59,400 --> 02:31:03,480 But anyway. So I stopped sharing just 2563 02:31:03,480 --> 02:31:09,160 because I found this chart which shows his like I guess it was 2564 02:31:09,160 --> 02:31:13,720 this year his target profile where you see where it is on the 2565 02:31:13,720 --> 02:31:15,840 field. You can see this is literally 2566 02:31:15,840 --> 02:31:17,600 all over the field. Yeah. 2567 02:31:18,040 --> 02:31:22,920 This is on stots BOM and thought that was interesting. 2568 02:31:23,200 --> 02:31:25,480 It's not if you're trying to share it, it's not currently 2569 02:31:25,480 --> 02:31:28,880 sharing. I forgot to press that button. 2570 02:31:29,840 --> 02:31:32,960 I wish I had like a better sure view. 2571 02:31:33,400 --> 02:31:36,920 And no, I can see, yeah, you can see it's all over the map. 2572 02:31:37,160 --> 02:31:39,120 Looks like a guy who operates in all quadrants. 2573 02:31:39,840 --> 02:31:43,000 And then and then It's also put next to. 2574 02:31:43,240 --> 02:31:45,560 You can see it's put next. To. 2575 02:31:46,480 --> 02:31:50,800 Tyree kill. Yeah, interesting. 2576 02:31:54,080 --> 02:32:01,600 This is interesting. Is it for us? 2577 02:32:02,280 --> 02:32:07,120 Yeah, I think we'll end on that note if you managed to make it 2578 02:32:07,120 --> 02:32:09,200 through the whole 2 1/2 hours with us. 2579 02:32:09,200 --> 02:32:10,560 Thank you. We appreciate you. 2580 02:32:10,680 --> 02:32:15,640 I hope that we gave you some actual info for this week and to 2581 02:32:16,400 --> 02:32:20,480 Drap who took down his second dog bowl seat this last week and 2582 02:32:20,840 --> 02:32:25,080 messaged me about how he he appreciated us talking about Joe 2583 02:32:25,080 --> 02:32:29,000 Burrow because we we partially put him on to Joe Burrow last 2584 02:32:29,000 --> 02:32:30,440 week. You're welcome. 2585 02:32:30,440 --> 02:32:34,400 And also I'm really sad because you continuously sniped me on 2586 02:32:34,400 --> 02:32:36,800 all the Bengals stuff I was trying to do last week and you 2587 02:32:36,800 --> 02:32:39,480 won your second dog bowl seat. So Congrats to you. 2588 02:32:39,480 --> 02:32:43,200 Maybe say one for me this week and we'll see you next week, 2589 02:32:43,200 --> 02:32:46,280 everybody. See you next week, everyone.