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And we're live. 
Week 4 is in the books, and if 

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you're here for the Rashi Rice 
funeral, you're in the right 

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place. 
This is stat chasing Pat fryer 

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Helmo. 
This is what This is what I'm 

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Pat Anita hand job. 
Fix your sight. 

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Jamar. 
Alpha play, Chase you. 

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You can't handle the heat. 
It looks like we're finally this

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voice. 
You're right. 

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Good evening, that intro always 
brings a small in my face. 

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Yeah, I mean, Pete denied my 
request to have Rashi Rice in a 

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coffin being carried by 
pallbearers with the faces of 

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Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry
photoshopped on the pallbearers 

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as the thumbnail. 
But you can't stop me from 

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mourning my Rashi Rice bags. 
That was that was like the only 

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thing that was going well for me
really this season, you know, 

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like that was the lone bright 
spot so far through 4 weeks. 

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So that was pretty devastating. 
Add that to the fact that I, I 

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think I had like the literal 
nuts on five of six players in a

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dog bowl team with Rashi Rice 
left to go. 

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I had, I had two incredible line
UPS that one of them had Brandon

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I uke left to go. 
The other one had Rashi Rice 

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left to go. 
I after the morning games, I was

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pretty sure I was gonna sweep 
the dog bowl, then take three 

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seats in a single week. 
I needed six points or so from 

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Brandon Rice and or Brandon Iuke
or Rashi Rice to get a, a seat 

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and couldn't get it done, could 
not do it. 

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So bit of a tilting week for me.
I I'm sure that if you're 

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listening to this, it probably 
was a bit of a tilting week for 

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you too, because you probably 
had a lot of rush. 

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Because you're not a fucking 
donkey if you're. 

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Not a donkey. 
This season sucks so far. 

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So far it it it, it's chopped 
chock timber. 

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Yeah, I mean, I I don't think 
I've ever had as many winning 

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like profitable slates in a row 
for a weekend of DFS and been as

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tilted as I've been. 
I you know, just for a quick 

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recap for those of you that are 
interested in in hearing me 

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bitch the the Sunday night 
we're. 

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Late to stock chasing everyone. 
Let's let's let's talk about 

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socks. 
Yeah, we were just, we were 

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commiserating. 
Yeah, we were commiserating 

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before the show, but had 50% 
Derrick Henry, captain couldn't,

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couldn't sync the shot was just 
all over, like in and out of 

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place the whole night. 
Couldn't get it to drain. 

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Yeah, had had like 5 different 
line UPS in the dog bowl that 

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all were very, very promising to
ship. 

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Had a line up finish, you know, 
in the top 100 or so of the 

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milli maker that was reasonably 
live. 

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Bunch of stuff that did not go 
my way this weekend. 

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But you know what? 
All things considered, I'm doing

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OK. 
What about you? 

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Draco, I'm doing absolutely 
awful. 

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Like really, really bad. 
My my dogs got into a fight last

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week and we had to amputate one 
of their ears yesterday. 

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So I'm, I'm, I'm pretty sad 
right now. 

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Sounds sounds like you're having
a worse day than me on all of 

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those positive notes that we 
shared. 

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Let's get into some charts. 
Yeah, you think, you think I'd 

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know by now I have to have a 
little bit more zoomed in to fit

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the screen, but here we are. 
So we've got our QB volume 

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efficiency and rushing chart. 
And then so we've got volume 

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expected points from passing, 
We've got adjusted yards per 

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attempt. 
And then the size of the bubble 

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corresponds to rushing yards per
game. 

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And you can see the reference 
here, whereas this corresponds 

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to 100 yards per game. 
And most of the most of the guys

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are going to be smaller than 
that. 

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But you can see at Lamar gets 
pretty close, Jayden Daniels 

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gets pretty close. 
So if you if your bubble is up 

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big, you're you're doing pretty 
good. 

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Yeah. 
The the first thing that stands 

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out to me is, I mean, we can we 
can talk about the Russian 

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quarterbacks in a second, but 
the one that's like the clear 

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outlier over here is Jordan 
Love. 

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Now granted, some of this is, 
you know, game script depending.

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It's all game script. 
So the the the Packers have a 

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neutral in in games where Jordan
Love is is the QB. 

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They're neutral in pass rate 
over expected. 

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They just had a really, really 
high expected pass rate in, in 

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Week 4 as they're getting 
absolutely shellacked by the 

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Vikings. 
So I, I think that's driving 

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most of the that, that, that 
volume piece there. 

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Yeah, definitely agree. 
There's a couple other pieces 

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here though, that I think we 
want to peel back some layers on

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the onion. 
Yeah, yeah, Jordan Love is super

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interesting. 
One of the things that goes into

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adjusted yards per attempt is 
interceptions, and Jordan Love 

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had a bunch of them on Sunday. 
So I I think he's not gonna. 

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I didn't like. 
That Brett Favre tweeted him 

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out. 
I know. 

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That's good guy. 
And he played like Brett Favre. 

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It was so good. 
But yeah, he so he had a ton of 

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interceptions and interceptions 
are a really large penalty. 

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An interception in the formula 
for adjusted yards per attempt 

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is basically the same thing as 
45 passing yards or two, two and

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change touchdowns. 
It's a big deal to throw on 

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interception. 
It really hurts. 

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Right. 
It's so that just say jars per 

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attempt is like it's a re 
weighting of the QB passive 

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rating to make it more 
intuitive. 

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And you don't get stuff like 
passive rating and you get some 

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quarterbacks who have weeks 
where they'd be better off just 

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throwing it into the dirt every 
play. 

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That doesn't make any sense. 
So it it it doesn't have that 

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issue. 
And it's also it's a lot more 

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intuitive to think about it and 
and and yards per attempt. 

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But yeah, you're right, it 
doesn't quite correspond to 

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fantasy points, does it? 
Yeah, and, and the reason I 

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really wanted to point that out 
for Love is I don't think his 

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interception rate is gonna be 
near that high going forward. 

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So really what I'm getting at to
to say it quicker is his 

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adjusted yards per attempt on 
this chart will probably go up, 

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even though his expected fantasy
points will likely go down 

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'cause they're not gonna throw a
million times a game. 

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So I think he's still a pretty 
good positive regression 

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candidate. 
There's just a lot of different 

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moving parts here. 
And I think he so he has a 

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really high A dot. 
So his A dot is 10.5. 

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So he his yards per attempt, 
assuming he he, he, he doesn't 

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turn into a pumpkin, his yards 
per attempt will be high this 

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year. 
He I think unless he's 

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absolutely amazing, he is going 
to throw a decent amount of 

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picks just because it's really 
hard not to throw picks when 

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you're when you're A dot is 10 
1/2 and and and if they maintain

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that neutral password over ever 
expected. 

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But what also comes with high A 
dot is the yardage and 

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touchdowns, which is great for 
fantasy. 

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Yeah. 
So Jordan Love looking like a 

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pretty incredible quarterback 
for fantasy right now. 

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Like if you had to pick right 
now, do you want Jordan Love or 

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do you want CJ Stroud straight 
up rest of the season? 

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That's that's that's really 
hard. 

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00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:48,440
So I wasn't I wasn't thinking 
about Stroud. 

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Let me see. 
So the Texans are also neutral 

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and phosphate over expected. 
His ADAS 7.9 he is running 

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00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:10,160
probably I mean he's running OK 
on efficiency, which that like 

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so he's at 7.8 where you have a 
Lamar 8.5, Jayden Daniels 8.6. 

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00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:22,360
So he's a little bit below and 
Brock Purdy 9.4. 

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00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:26,880
So he's running a little bit low
on efficiency, which for 

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somebody who started who played 
so well last year, is kind of 

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00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:33,280
shocking. 
So I think CJ Stroud is a pretty

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00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,400
like not not this. 
I didn't come out this in a 

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quantitative way and more like 
he's a, he's at average, whereas

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00:08:42,159 --> 00:08:46,840
I think his, like his true 
where, where he should land is 

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really high. 
So I, I, I think, I think CJ 

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00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,760
Stroud is a pretty good 
regression candidate actually. 

146
00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:57,000
OK. 
But it it does say a lot that it

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00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,480
took a lot of thinking to 
determine who you want. 

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00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:02,480
Well, yeah, I, I think Jordan 
love. 

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00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:04,480
I think Jordan love is, is 
really interesting. 

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00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:09,520
I I like I said, the Brett Favre
of tweeting about him like he's 

151
00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:11,400
kind of playing like the Brett 
Favre. 

152
00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:14,880
No, it's only two games. 
It's 2, but it's two games. 

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So he's he's he's playing very 
aggressively and they're they're

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00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:24,560
at least their pass rate over 
expected is neutral, which in in

155
00:09:24,560 --> 00:09:26,920
this new NFL that maybe that's 
actually high. 

156
00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:29,520
So like that, that's pretty. 
That's pretty exciting. 

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00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,920
Yeah, definitely. 
I'm I'm excited about love. 

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He also gets an incredible match
up against the Rams this week. 

159
00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:41,600
And and I think the teams the 
the match up for from both sides

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meshes really well because what 
the Rams would love to do is 

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00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:49,120
give Kyron Williams a bunch of 
opportunities because he's the 

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00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:51,360
only thing they feel good about 
in their offense right now. 

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00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,360
And the Packers have not been 
great against the run. 

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00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:59,960
And then you've got the Packers 
who would love to, you know, 

165
00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,640
just score at will and the Rams 
defense is happy to let you do 

166
00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,000
that either through the air on 
the ground. 

167
00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:10,000
I think that, you know, in a 
neutral game script, like like 

168
00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,400
you've said, the Packers are 
going to remain balanced. 

169
00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:17,160
So it's a it's a good spot for 
pretty much east on the Packers.

170
00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:18,600
I. 
Would say it's, it's, it sounds 

171
00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:24,160
like we should expect the 
Packers to win by like the do 

172
00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,920
you know, I, I don't know if you
have odds or anything like, or, 

173
00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:30,360
or like the, the sides or 
anything like that, but it 

174
00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:32,360
sounds like they should score a 
lot of points. 

175
00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:36,800
And and, and, and and you kind 
of like you, you look for that 

176
00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:41,120
to come true to passing and with
the potential that if they go up

177
00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,120
a lot they, they, they are 
probably pretty happy to 

178
00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,760
establish it. 
Yeah, it looks like right now 

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00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:50,520
the the line is set at 48 total 
points. 

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00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:54,960
But let me just check another 
source to verify that. 

181
00:11:06,560 --> 00:11:12,400
Packers favored by 3 1/2, which 
M that M that's not too big of a

182
00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:14,960
spread, so that that that that 
projects is like competitive. 

183
00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:17,040
Yeah, should should be a good 
game. 

184
00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:24,200
OK, Moving on to other 
quarterbacks on the chart close 

185
00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,960
to Jordan Love is Joe Burrow, 
who is moving in a positive 

186
00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:31,440
direction on the chart after 
having both of his weapons back.

187
00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:34,920
Now, I, I don't know how we 
could have seen this coming that

188
00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,760
this quarterback would improve 
after getting, you know his 

189
00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:39,640
when. 
You say it like that, me feeling

190
00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,840
happy that I was like, Oh yeah, 
Joe Burrow is a is a positive 

191
00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,240
regression candidate, me feeling
happy about that. 

192
00:11:45,680 --> 00:11:49,000
And it's like, oh, maybe, maybe 
that it was kind of predictable.

193
00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:51,320
No, it was, I mean, it was a 
good call. 

194
00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,240
I think there were people that 
were a little worried about Joe 

195
00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:56,360
Burrow. 
Right, right, right, right. 

196
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,120
The the vibes were were at least
a little negative. 

197
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,440
Yeah, I mean, I, I think the 
vibes are still bad in Cleveland

198
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:07,440
or in Cleveland, Cincinnati. 
They need to win and they are. 

199
00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:11,400
They're in a an interesting game
this week against the Ravens 

200
00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:13,200
where we definitely could see 
some points. 

201
00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,840
I believe that one's got a 
pretty high total as well. 

202
00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:23,360
I want to say that one is 50. 
So Burrow, I think they're gonna

203
00:12:23,680 --> 00:12:25,920
they're gonna still be passing 
quite a bit. 

204
00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,040
And so I I really like this spot
for him this week. 

205
00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:31,680
I think it's a. 
Oh, it's an this is an 

206
00:12:31,680 --> 00:12:37,200
incredible, incredible spot for 
Burrow where like he's playing 

207
00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:39,840
really well to me, he's playing 
really well. 

208
00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:46,920
He's ran a little bit low on on 
touchdowns, but they they have 

209
00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,120
what you call it. 
They've been high on the pass 

210
00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:53,880
rate over expected. 
They they it looks like Chase is

211
00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:58,080
has hit a stride. 
T Higgins is back and the Ravens

212
00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,280
are actually a pretty big pass 
one or two. 

213
00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:05,000
Like I, I I think that spot is 
really interesting. 

214
00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:10,360
Like one, one thing that sort of
mitigated Burroughs kind of like

215
00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:13,400
good day against the Panthers is
that they were negative and pass

216
00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:15,000
rate over expected against the 
Panthers. 

217
00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:18,720
And I, I think they, they were 
just favorited. 

218
00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:21,720
And so they, they ran the ball. 
They, they won by 10 points. 

219
00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:24,840
But the Ravens are big pass 
funnels. 

220
00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,640
So if you have somebody who's 
playing well, weapons hitting 

221
00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,200
their stride and they should 
throw a lot. 

222
00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:33,520
I I, I, I think that's super 
interesting. 

223
00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:37,360
Yeah, I mean, that game against 
Carolina could have completely 

224
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:40,240
gone a different direction too. 
I, I don't know if you got to to

225
00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:43,000
watch that one, but the really 
like. 

226
00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:47,280
Watch the game. 
Really, it looked to me like, 

227
00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:50,920
you know, the, the Bengals were 
kind of on the ropes and then 

228
00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:55,880
Jamar Chase had one of the best 
individual effort plays I saw on

229
00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,800
the whole week. 
Just, you know, breaking 

230
00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:00,120
tackles. 
Like, right. 

231
00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:04,040
It, it, it was like the classic 
kind of like Debo play where 

232
00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:07,920
it's like, oh, Oh no, Debo has 
the ball and he's in the 

233
00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,120
secondary. 
Like, I guess no one can tackle 

234
00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:11,360
him now. 
It was like 1. 

235
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:17,440
He's in full stride. 
Yeah, it is crazy that you 

236
00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:19,480
forget that he can do that. 
Yeah, I know. 

237
00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,080
I mean, like he has this open 
field ability or when he hits 

238
00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:26,320
full stride that he he's he's 
unstoppable like that. 

239
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:30,080
It like for somebody who's who's
who's such a good deep ball 

240
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:34,120
receiver that have also have 
that in his bag is pretty cool. 

241
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,440
Yeah, no, it's a good, good 
reminder why we were drafting 

242
00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:40,400
this guy where we drafted. 
We can just go and do stuff like

243
00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:42,400
that. 
So I I don't even, we haven't 

244
00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,440
even seen like an actual Jamar 
Chase eruption game yet. 

245
00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,880
Wouldn't surprise me at all if 
this is the week where you get 

246
00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:50,560
that. 
Right, right. 

247
00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:55,080
I I, I, I completely agree. 
I think, I think it's, it's 

248
00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:58,320
super interesting. 
You know what is here? 

249
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,600
Here's some alpha for anyone, 
anyone drafting the dog bowl 

250
00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:03,200
right now. 
You can get Joe Burrow in the 

251
00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,400
fifth round pretty consistently.
I've seen him go in the 6th a 

252
00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:10,440
couple times, too. 
Yeah, Like he he goes after. 

253
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,960
Yeah, he goes after some 
absolutely ridiculous guys. 

254
00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,040
Like, there's no reason he 
should be going. 

255
00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:17,920
Do you? 
Think, do you think, do you 

256
00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:21,040
think we're they're just giving 
the Ravens like too much respect

257
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,000
after after the the prime time 
game? 

258
00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:25,520
That's what it kind of feels 
like. 

259
00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:28,280
I don't know. 
I'm, I'm, I think it's part, I 

260
00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,840
think it's partially like the 
bad vibes carrying over from the

261
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,280
first couple weeks for Burrow. 
You know what's crazy, though? 

262
00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:36,960
Is Burrows gonna project as one 
of the best plays on the slate? 

263
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,680
Like. 
OK, so so get that value before 

264
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:41,680
the projections come out is. 
What you're saying Burrow will 

265
00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:47,040
probably be like, oh gosh, the 
fourth highest projected 

266
00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:50,640
quarterback on the slate. 
If I were gonna guess the 

267
00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:52,280
problem. 
The only reason he's not higher 

268
00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,760
is because he's on the slate 
with Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen 

269
00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,200
and Jayden Daniels, who I guess 
we can move to now. 

270
00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:03,320
I, I mean, I'm not the first one
with this take, Draco, but I'll,

271
00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,840
I'll echo it. 
I mean, I, I've heard, you know,

272
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:09,720
Ben Gretch and and Sean Siegel, 
you know, coming in pretty 

273
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,880
strong with this one. 
But Jayden Daniels as the QB one

274
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,600
rest of season. 
Like I don't even think it's a 

275
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,520
particularly hot take because 
the people who would, you know, 

276
00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,600
we would have anticipated 
competing with him for QB one 

277
00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:27,320
are on teams like the Bills who 
are are truly not interested in 

278
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:29,760
passing the ball. 
That what what Josh Allen is 

279
00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:33,680
doing is extended handoffs. 
Like there's there's no real 

280
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:35,640
passing attempts happening for 
the Bills. 

281
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,520
There's the occasional one 
that's downfield, but the vast 

282
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:43,320
majority of them are like these.
No A dot anything like it's just

283
00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:47,240
Dinkin and Duncan and and so and
they're also not throwing all 

284
00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:48,680
that often. 
If you look at his expected 

285
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:52,960
fantasy points from passing like
he's they're not there's not a 

286
00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:55,960
ton of attempts happening. 
So Josh Allen's fantasy. 

287
00:16:56,040 --> 00:17:00,360
This isn't the the Josh Allen of
of the last couple years. 

288
00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:06,160
No, this is what you're getting 
is really fancy Justin Fields 

289
00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,400
where you're not. 
And it's not even fair to call 

290
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,599
it really fancy Justin Fields 
cause the, the passing 

291
00:17:12,599 --> 00:17:14,640
production is coming entirely 
different. 

292
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:16,560
You know what? 
It's almost like Justin Fields 

293
00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,800
of this year, not not Justin 
Fields of years past, but with 

294
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:24,079
better rushing. 
You know, it's, it's weird, man.

295
00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,560
I, I think it continues though, 
too, because it's kind of what 

296
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,920
we saw through the second-half 
of last year. 

297
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,960
So the trend that we. 
This, this, this is how they 

298
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,840
wanna play. 
And honestly, with the receivers

299
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,400
they have, it's kind of how they
need to play. 

300
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,440
Yeah, so, so that's that's why 
Josh Allen's not live for, well,

301
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:44,520
calling him not live for QB. 
One not live. 

302
00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:46,920
He's not the favorite. 
And he's he's certainly not the 

303
00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,240
favorite anymore. 
And then you get to Lamar 

304
00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,240
Jackson. 
And the reason he's not the 

305
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,720
favorite to be QB. 
One is the Ravens do really 

306
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:59,000
enjoy running out their their 
new shiny toy of Derrick Henry. 

307
00:17:59,360 --> 00:18:03,080
And also they finally, the year 
that I am did not draft very 

308
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:07,120
much of this player, finally are
deploying Justice Hill in a 

309
00:18:07,120 --> 00:18:12,960
really effective role, much to 
my, you know, chagrin here now 

310
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,360
that I don't have any of them. 
So you get 2 teams where their 

311
00:18:16,360 --> 00:18:18,480
quarterbacks are good. 
But you know, I'm not saying 

312
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,480
that Jackson or Allen are bad 
quarterbacks. 

313
00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:23,280
They're both very good. 
They just aren't passing as 

314
00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:26,680
much. 
And and with the Bills, they're 

315
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:30,280
not passing deep at all. 
And so you just end up with 

316
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:32,520
these low attempts. 
That's why they're here in this,

317
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,560
you know, low expected fantasy 
points from passing where Jayden

318
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:40,000
Daniels they're actually passing
a good bit, but the expected 

319
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,920
fantasy points from passing are 
a little low for Daniels. 

320
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,840
Just you know, I think in part 
due to the really, really low A 

321
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,320
dot stuff over the first couple 
weeks. 

322
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,120
So do you, I guess that was a 
really long winded way of 

323
00:18:54,120 --> 00:18:57,320
getting to do you think there's 
a chance for Jayden Niels to 

324
00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,160
move further right on the 
expected fantasy points from 

325
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,040
passing part of that access of 
the chart here? 

326
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:10,400
So to, to do that to, to 
increase the volume or true our 

327
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:15,480
expected fantasy points, to 
increase that projection, they 

328
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,000
have to throw deep a lot more 
because he's getting the 

329
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:19,960
dropbacks, he's getting the 
attempts. 

330
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:25,200
And what's weird about Jayden 
Daniels is because he's a 

331
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,600
rusher, his time to throw is 
really high. 

332
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:34,240
And so he he he holds the ball 
similarly to how somebody who 

333
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:38,600
it's it's kind of similar to to 
peak Russell Wilson or or QBs 

334
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,440
like that where they hold the 
ball waiting for trying to make 

335
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,400
something happen. 
But then the A dot is is super 

336
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,400
low. 
And that's obviously the Cliff 

337
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,040
Kingsbury thing. 
How? 

338
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,680
Does how does it compare to 
Jalen Hurts this year? 

339
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,480
Because I I noticed that his 
time to throw is up pretty 

340
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,560
substantially this year, and 
that was even before he he lost 

341
00:19:56,560 --> 00:20:00,760
his primary receiving weapons. 
So Jaden Daniels. 

342
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:08,240
His time to throw is 3 point O 
OK and which is 3 seconds is. 

343
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,160
Most of these guys are below. 
Yeah, that's high. 

344
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:18,280
That's quite high. 
And then Hertz, Hertz is his is 

345
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:19,920
3.17. 
OK. 

346
00:20:20,360 --> 00:20:28,800
So Hertz is really high and then
Jayden Downloads is high too. 

347
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,560
And, and, and, and, and so guys 
who are mobile, you expect you 

348
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,520
expect high numbers for them 
because you have those plays 

349
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:39,080
where they break out of the 
pocket and then they try to make

350
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,800
something happen and, and this 
is an average. 

351
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,360
So it's going to push that 
number up. 

352
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:47,440
But normally with that comes the
down the field play and and you 

353
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,400
haven't been getting that with 
Jane Daniels. 

354
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:59,240
I mean, it feels like what they 
should do because you, you have 

355
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,920
this quarterback who already 
kind of stresses the field 

356
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,560
horizontally because of his 
mobility. 

357
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:10,240
And then you have Terry Mclaurin
who, who, who, who he's made 

358
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,560
most of his money being a good 
deep track. 

359
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:17,680
It it feels like what they 
should do, but I don't. 

360
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,240
I don't know if that's if that's
who the team identity is. 

361
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:28,160
Yeah, I, I just, I guess my, my 
thesis on it is there's no way 

362
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:32,920
that you cannot add more deep 
passing into this offense after 

363
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,800
seeing it work the way that it 
has with Daniels. 

364
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,960
And that was one of his 
strongest aspects, as you know, 

365
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,800
final season in college, that 
that was one of the things that 

366
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,120
people were raising. 
That's one of his tools. 

367
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,040
Yeah. 
And and so I I just, I have a 

368
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:53,240
hard time believing that. 
I mean, we we already got word 

369
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,600
that he was asking Cliff 
Kingsbury and Terry McClure in 

370
00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:00,680
it is right, right. 
Like please Sir, just one more 

371
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,360
deep pass like. 
Right, right. 

372
00:22:02,360 --> 00:22:06,600
I I think I put that meme up 
like please Sir, like in Oliver 

373
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,600
Twist. 
Yeah, I, I, I think that's the 

374
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:11,960
that is the natural progression 
to me. 

375
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:16,040
And that's like just imagine if 
you if you drag that Jaden 

376
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:20,600
Daniels bubble even over to that
median line, like there there's 

377
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,480
a reason why these guys with the
huge rushing numbers, Jayden 

378
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,320
Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Justin 
Fields, Kyler Mary, Josh Allen 

379
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,560
are all to the left of the 
median for expected fantasy 

380
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,360
points for passing. 
And it's you know, it's because 

381
00:22:32,360 --> 00:22:34,480
they're eating up a bunch of 
that with their rushing 

382
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,800
attempts, right, that they just 
naturally are going to end up 

383
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:41,520
with less pass attempts. 
But I think that you could get 

384
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:46,000
Jayden Daniels increasing his A 
dot enough to maybe approach the

385
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:50,520
median there, which he would 
just be far and away the QB one 

386
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,640
if that's the case, right And I.
I think that's a bowl case, 

387
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:58,880
that's an upside scenario, but 
it is Cliff Kingsbury. 

388
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,480
I, I, I don't think we should 
like expect that he's going to 

389
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,000
go all of a sudden, like 
actually, you know what guys, I 

390
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,280
think we should try the, the 
ball down the field now. 

391
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,920
Yeah, I, I think. 
I just wanna, it's not 

392
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:14,920
impossible. 
That's one of those things where

393
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,000
if it broke that way, it's like,
aw shit. 

394
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,480
Yeah, I'd rather just lean into 
the outcome where when I'm right

395
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,440
and early to it, I'm just gonna 
win all the money for a week or 

396
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,760
two and then everyone else can 
catch up to me while I'm taking 

397
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,400
it to the bank, you know? 
But I I think I'm. 

398
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:33,200
So I'm. 
So are you playing that through 

399
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,720
Terry Mclaurin then? 
Yeah, I'm playing it through 

400
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,360
Terry Mclaurin. 
I'm also just playing it with 

401
00:23:37,360 --> 00:23:42,240
naked Daniels and then. 
OK, but it it isn't isn't 

402
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,960
Daniel's kind of like isn't 
isn't his his quality priced in 

403
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,920
I I actually I haven't seen a 
DP. 

404
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:52,000
I just, I got him at pick 28 in 
a dog bowl just before we 

405
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,920
started the show. 
I promise you he will be a top 

406
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:59,080
12 quarterback, Top 12 ADP 
quarterback by projection when 

407
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:00,120
projection. 
Right, right. 

408
00:24:00,120 --> 00:24:01,720
Yeah, Easily. 
Easily. 

409
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:07,080
Going away, you know, So for him
to go at the 2-3 turn like that,

410
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,000
you're, you're stealing, like 
absolutely stealing. 

411
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,560
So he's a really good target 
right now. 

412
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,880
I, I don't know if people are 
like worried about the Browns 

413
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,640
match up or whatever. 
I I don't think it matters all 

414
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,680
that much 'cause I think if if 
you get the upside case playing 

415
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,760
out, you're just gonna win all 
the money, you're gonna have a 

416
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,360
quarterback that's separating 
hugely from the field here. 

417
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,000
I, I don't think it should be 
the primary focus, but I think 

418
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,760
there is like some, some 
credence to if the, the Browns 

419
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:39,240
have this good pass rush, he has
a high time patrol. 

420
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,880
His pressure to sack rate has 
been high. 

421
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,400
It hasn't mattered just because 
he's been playing. 

422
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,320
He's other than that he's been 
playing well. 

423
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,040
The volume's been there and all 
that kind of stuff. 

424
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:54,480
But that that is the type of 
team that or type of defense 

425
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:58,880
that might be his kryptonite. 
Now, do we know what's going on 

426
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,480
with the Miles Garrett injury? 
Is he going to miss this week? 

427
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:06,200
I I actually I I have no idea. 
'Cause I believe he left with a 

428
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:12,800
foot injury. 
I'm I'm looking here to see if I

429
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:18,320
can find anything. 
Yeah, I I looked it up, but I 

430
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,120
spelled his name wrong. 
I got a a baseball. 

431
00:25:22,360 --> 00:25:25,800
Reporter. 
Yeah, he's got injuries to both 

432
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,280
feet, strained Achilles, thigh 
strain. 

433
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:30,120
Oh. 
Gee. 

434
00:25:30,360 --> 00:25:34,520
So I don't think we've seen 
anything yet this week. 

435
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:40,320
I I mean, yeah, just a a 
situation to monitor it. 

436
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,720
If there's no miles here it like
I would take Jaden Daniels 

437
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,600
probably as high as 8th overall.
That makes sense. 

438
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,320
Dog Bowl draft. 
And it's really just because 

439
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,480
we're starting to get to the 
point in the season when we know

440
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,600
who the elite players are and 
then who the players are below 

441
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,160
that tier. 
It's just it's starting to get 

442
00:25:58,160 --> 00:25:59,840
more clear. 
We have more games, you know, we

443
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,720
have a larger simple. 
And so it's like, all right 

444
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,880
after Jayden reads off the 
board, like all these wide 

445
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,280
receivers are pretty similar for
a long time. 

446
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:10,920
All these running backs pretty 
similar for a long time. 

447
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:16,120
So anyway, that was that was me 
hopping on the Jayden Daniels 

448
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:20,760
Bowl case bandwagon. 
Two other quarterbacks to I 

449
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:25,440
think you either want to get on 
the bandwagon or get out of the 

450
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,960
way is Sam Darnold and Brock 
Purdy. 

451
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,480
They've just perpetually been, 
you know, for the first four 

452
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,760
weeks they've been atop this 
chart as far as some of the most

453
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:38,520
efficient by adjusted yards per 
attempt and they've been above 

454
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,240
the median and expected fantasy 
points from passing. 

455
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:46,560
So I I think this is just like, 
welcome to the new NFL. 

456
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:51,520
Like it's the Mick Shanaskan 
system world and we're all just 

457
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,360
living in it. 
Like these guys are going like 

458
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:57,960
the Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy 
efficiency will continue until 

459
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,120
morale improves. 
Like I, I just think, right? 

460
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,560
It's here to stay. 
It's a, it's, it's a, it's a 

461
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:05,720
thing. 
It's not a, it's not an ampler. 

462
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,080
No, yeah, not at all. 
I'm you last. 

463
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,960
If you watched us last season, 
you know that I was like a 

464
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,520
chronic Brock Purdy hater. 
I'm fully capitulating. 

465
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,600
I'm I'm on the Brock Purdy 
bandwagon. 

466
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,040
I'm I'm here. 
I'm the shirts in the mail. 

467
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:29,240
So so Sam Darnold being up here 
I I think it it's immense that 

468
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:33,440
obviously Justin Jefferson is 
wide receiver one does it cement

469
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:38,360
him as as as the one O 1 I I 
know that's it. 

470
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:41,360
We're not at, we're not at the 
receiver chart, but. 

471
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,000
The. 
It's an interesting, yeah. 

472
00:27:44,360 --> 00:27:48,880
Yeah, I think when we get to the
receiver chart, the there's 

473
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:53,920
actually for, for me, honestly, 
if you made me, if we had to 

474
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:57,920
redraft right now, the one O 1 
is the the spot that I don't 

475
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,960
want to pick in because I think 
there's like 5 very viable 

476
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,760
choices for the one O 1. 
And it's probably like Justin 

477
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:12,240
Jefferson, Jamar Chase, CD Lamb.
I mean, give me Justin Jefferson

478
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,760
over like cleanly ahead of those
guys. 

479
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,080
Malik Neighbors still Justin 
Jefferson. 

480
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,720
Yeah, OK. 
I think, I mean, I think that's 

481
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:22,760
reasonable. 
He's obviously incredible. 

482
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,520
He looks, you know, just 
absolutely absurd. 

483
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,280
He's very. 
Very, but then the other take 

484
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:32,080
away it is and and and this kind
of is speaking to our backs. 

485
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:36,640
It makes Jordan Addison, like 
insane, like just fucking insane

486
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,000
as a wide receiver to in that 
offense. 

487
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,600
He's like, he was great. 
He puts me back too. 

488
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:44,320
Positive pass rate over 
expected. 

489
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,280
So they're you've got the 
volume, he's on the right side 

490
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,120
of the chart and then you've got
the efficiency from the 

491
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,000
quarterback. 
It doesn't matter how it comes 

492
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:56,160
like getting that quote, getting
that wide receiver to as cheaply

493
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:57,800
as he has been. 
I'm not sure what his 

494
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:01,920
resurrection ADP is, but like 
think about like some of the 

495
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,640
best offenses and what the wide 
receiver to has been like the 

496
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:09,280
the discrepancy to what it was 
this season and, and and what 

497
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,560
those historical prices have 
been is, is pretty large. 

498
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,520
Here's a here's a really gross 
one. 

499
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,800
Are you ready to this is not 
quarterback related. 

500
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:21,400
We're fully off the rails, but 
Jordan Addison or Jalen Waddle 

501
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:25,000
rest of season, you have to 
assume there's some probability 

502
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:26,800
of two, you know, not coming 
back. 

503
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:35,240
Oh jeez, I I like it feels it, 
it feels like, it feels very 

504
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:39,840
vibesy like I, I I, I do prefer 
Jordan Addison, I think. 

505
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,320
Yeah, me too. 
Yeah, I don't think it's vibesy 

506
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:43,800
at all. 
I think it's the correct take, 

507
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:45,240
like. 
Right. 

508
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:51,400
Yeah, just just because the the 
the risk of bottoming in that 

509
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:57,560
and not Dolphins offense, it's 
clearly, clearly pretty awful. 

510
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,320
As we talk about the Dolphins 
offense, I realized that I did 

511
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:05,360
not put Snoop Huntley on here. 
Now granted, he only the one 

512
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,280
game with the Dolphins, so we're
just getting one. 

513
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,520
Nobody looks at the charts 
anyway. 

514
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:13,800
They just listened to the 
podcast. 

515
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,360
Honestly like Snoop Huntley may 
have broken the chart so bad 

516
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,800
that it it was a good thing to 
not have him on there cuz the 

517
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,160
rest of the chart would have 
been like truly unreadable. 

518
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:26,160
I mean Bo Nix is already like 
making it a little if if Bo Nix.

519
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:30,320
So he was he was at it at 4.4 
adjusted yards per 10th. 

520
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,520
OK, so you're, you're talking 
Will, that was bad. 

521
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:35,880
You're talking to Shawn Watson 
bad. 

522
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,600
But this is like, would it, 
would it -10% pass rate over 

523
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,080
expected. 
So they're hiding this guy as 

524
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:54,360
much as they can and 2.27 time 
to throw 8.4 A dot. 

525
00:30:55,480 --> 00:31:02,560
So I, yeah, to me, that kind of 
speaks to like maybe a, just 

526
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,560
like an average backup, which 
isn't what we were promised we'd

527
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,480
get from from this type of 
offense. 

528
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:16,600
Yeah, OK, let's see. 
Moving on to all right, we, I 

529
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:18,520
think we have to talk about Pat 
Mahomes. 

530
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,360
So we we get the Ruchi Rice 
injury. 

531
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:26,080
It, it sounded pretty much like 
it was season ending, but we're 

532
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:29,520
we're getting like some 
semblance, some shreds of hope 

533
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,280
today that it might not be 
season end. 

534
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:35,120
Where did they, they haven't 
confirmed that it's a yeah, it's

535
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,920
an ACL. 
So we're like, Oh well, maybe 

536
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,680
it's not as bad, but some of the
utter tears can be really bad 

537
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,560
too. 
Yeah, but even even with that, 

538
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,720
we So we get three of the four 
games so far with Rashi Rice. 

539
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,720
And this is where Pat Mahomes is
on the chart. 

540
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,440
Like, is this guy just fancy 
Kirk Cousins in the current 

541
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,800
iteration of the Chiefs offense?
Like is that? 

542
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,800
Is that I mean, that's certainly
what the number suggests that 

543
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:07,000
like that, that that's where the
efficiency is like the volume 

544
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:14,200
has been like fine, not amazing.
And it's it's honestly it's it's

545
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:19,440
it's really difficult and tricky
to put your finger on where like

546
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:24,880
this like player who seems like 
on a complete tear, like shoo in

547
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:30,120
for Hall of Fame. 
He obviously still is and he 

548
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:35,080
keeps winning the Super Bowl and
then the fantasy stuff, even 

549
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:39,120
though they, I guess they 
brought in these weapons and 

550
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,480
Holly was injured, Rashi is 
injured now. 

551
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:53,880
And yeah, if it just feels like 
the Chiefs from last year and it

552
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,000
feels like the Chiefs from last 
year from the regular season 

553
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,640
where despite all the 
improvements they try to make, 

554
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,800
they're still they're still 
going to be trone to like 

555
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:06,800
absolute bombs. 
Like it was got so bad where 

556
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,680
like people are like Kareem Hunt
was in there and people are like

557
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:19,000
doesn't look that bad like it. 
Yeah, it might just truly be 

558
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,920
like outside of my homes, 
outside of the old line one, one

559
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:29,440
of the least talented offenses. 
Yeah, I So what I, I've seen a 

560
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,600
bunch of people talking about, 
oh, like, we should have seen 

561
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,000
Pat, Pat Mahomes is so 
overpriced. 

562
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,280
We should have seen this coming.
And like, as a person who was 

563
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:42,160
way significantly underweight, 
Pat Mahomes, like under 4% Pat 

564
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,240
Mahomes, you know, I don't have 
a ton thought thought the price 

565
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,840
was a little high. 
I I mean I, I think saying 

566
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:53,200
anything other than he could 
have finished as the QB 1 

567
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:57,320
squarely in his range of 
outcomes, it is just silly. 

568
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,720
Like, right, right. 
Disagreeing with that take 

569
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:04,480
because it was clearly like an 
outcome here where Xavier wordy 

570
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:08,840
was was better, I think. 
I think him underperforming has 

571
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,360
been part of that story. 
Cause 'cause like let me let me 

572
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:12,880
paint this for you in a 
different light. 

573
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:17,400
So Tyree Kill got traded in the 
2022 before the 2022 season. 

574
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,159
Do you know what Pat Mahomes 
numbers were in 2022 without 

575
00:34:21,159 --> 00:34:24,800
Tyree Kill? 
I don't remember. 

576
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:26,000
I think they were good though, 
right? 

577
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:30,000
How about 5250 yards, 41 
touchdowns? 

578
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,400
That's pretty good. 
Give me one overall absolute 

579
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:37,679
nuke. 
The guy was atomic and so to say

580
00:34:37,679 --> 00:34:42,000
like, oh, the the chiefs, Papa 
Holmes was never gonna be good. 

581
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:43,679
This was he didn't have Tyree 
kill. 

582
00:34:43,679 --> 00:34:46,159
He never he hadn't put up those 
numbers for years. 

583
00:34:46,159 --> 00:34:49,000
Like, dude, it was two years 
ago. 

584
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:53,520
We saw one year of him having, 
you know, a year where he 

585
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:58,120
wasn't, you know, the top five 
overall fantasy quarterbacks, 

586
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:01,960
you know, or, or the one O 1 
fantasy or the 1st overall 

587
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:06,400
fantasy quarterback going away. 
Like it's, it is so 

588
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,480
disingenuous, intellectually 
dishonest. 

589
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,600
Like or or if you find yourself 
like, you truly believe this, 

590
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:16,880
like I. 
What you the the weapon that the

591
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:20,200
story I think has been that like
the the guys that they brought 

592
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:24,320
in this year that we were hoping
would kind of like push things 

593
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:28,560
to a different to the level was 
before and have been 

594
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:33,480
disappointing because like 
Xavier wordy his targets prayer 

595
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:40,240
run at true 4 weeks 13 percent 
18% thirteen percent 10% even a 

596
00:35:40,240 --> 00:35:43,600
dot adjusted like that. 
That's not what we were hoping 

597
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:47,320
for. 
Hollywood's injured and like we 

598
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,680
were hoping, like we were hoping
that that would be a competent 

599
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:52,360
place in the offense and, and, 
and the replacement was Juju 

600
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:56,280
Smith Schuster. 
Well, I mean the the Chiefs, the

601
00:35:56,280 --> 00:36:00,080
Chiefs 2022 wide receivers get 
get ready for this. 

602
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,720
You sitting down the the same 
year where Pat Mahomes threw for

603
00:36:02,720 --> 00:36:06,080
almost 5300 yards, 41 
touchdowns, Juju Smith, 

604
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:10,800
Schuster, Marquez Valdez, 
Scantling, Justin Watson, Miko 

605
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:14,840
Hardman, Sky Moore, Cadarius, 
Tony, that's who he was throwing

606
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,000
to in 2022. 
So again, if you're saying, oh, 

607
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,440
there's no chant, we should have
seen this coming, that the 

608
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:21,440
homes. 
Right, right. 

609
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:25,520
I, I, I'm more thinking about 
like a forward-looking rather 

610
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:31,720
than like, oh, I mean the, the, 
the run out for the weapons have

611
00:36:31,720 --> 00:36:33,160
been. 
I, I'm more saying the run out 

612
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:36,560
for the weapons has been bad. 
Yeah, yeah, I'm, I'm just 

613
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:40,040
tilting at people. 
Who right, like there's 

614
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,600
scenarios where, hey, Xavier 
wordy was like a first round 

615
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:49,280
pick and maybe he ends up really
good and but there was there was

616
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,560
scenarios where he he was much, 
much better than this. 

617
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,680
There's scenarios where 
Hollywood Brown was healthy and 

618
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:59,960
and and contributing at least 
league average or above league 

619
00:36:59,960 --> 00:37:03,080
average in a way that opens up 
everything else. 

620
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,360
Yeah, yeah. 
Anyway, long, long and short of 

621
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,320
it right now, Papma Holmes is 
fancy Kirk Cousins. 

622
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:12,600
I think there's room for that to
change. 

623
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,920
You know, I, I think that they, 
they could end up in a situation

624
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,520
where they're just having to 
throw more. 

625
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:22,800
You know, it's it's a long 
season. 

626
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:26,000
I don't know if this, you know, 
barely eek out a victory on the 

627
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,760
back of a bunch of, you know, 
Kareem Hunt carries is gonna do 

628
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:33,760
the trick for them. 
So we'll we'll see how it plays 

629
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:35,880
out here. 
But right now, I mean, he's not 

630
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:40,160
really just just because of the 
name value, like he's he's not 

631
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,000
really usable in any fantasy 
formats right now. 

632
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,600
I mean, like if you got him in 
your home, like you're you 

633
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,800
probably have a better option to
stream on waivers a lot of 

634
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:53,400
weeks, you know, so it's it's 
rough. 

635
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:56,600
Yeah, it's rough. 
I mean, I I think for our rest 

636
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:59,520
of season rankings over at leg 
up, we've got him like below 

637
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:04,480
Baker Mayfield right now. 
So, and it's hard to argue with 

638
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:05,640
that. 
It's like you can't. 

639
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,640
You can't sum your fists on the 
table and say that's wrong. 

640
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,680
Yeah, no, cause 'cause look 
where Baker's out on the Baker's

641
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:15,560
been good, Baker's been awesome.
Like Baker. 

642
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:18,240
Baker is one of the shortest 
time to throw quarterbacks in 

643
00:38:18,240 --> 00:38:20,680
the league. 
Like he's been super efficient. 

644
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:26,760
I mean, I think the Baker 
numbers are real, like right? 

645
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,960
Anyone else that you wanted to 
go over on this chart or should 

646
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:39,560
we move on to running backs? 
No, no, I, I think we, we 

647
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:41,080
covered quarterback pretty good 
there. 

648
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:48,120
So I'm moving to snaps and usage
zooming out. 

649
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:55,400
And so this is because a lot of 
a lot of fantasy value for 

650
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,200
running backs comes simply from 
being on the field. 

651
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,000
So that that's what we're 
tracking here. 

652
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:04,400
We're tracking the percentage of
the team's offensive snaps was a

653
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:09,360
rush attempt at that player and 
what percentage of of team snaps

654
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:12,440
they were running a route. 
And we add those up together. 

655
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,440
Those are the fantasy useful 
snaps. 

656
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,680
We also look at pass blocking 
because it's helpful to see 

657
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:23,160
who's trusted to pass block for 
the quarterback and then run 

658
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,960
blocking is here too, just just 
to round out the picture. 

659
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:33,960
So we're seeing the the true. 
Snapshare yeah, this chart, a 

660
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:39,200
couple couple guys here where 
because this is through 4 weeks,

661
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:42,840
we're not seeing some of the 
like little, little nuance that 

662
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:46,440
we've noticed in a, you know, a 
single game where the tides 

663
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,440
might be turning. 
So I, I think it's definitely 

664
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,880
important for us to point out 
some things where right. 

665
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,520
Right, this is, this is the last
week where we don't put a filter

666
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,040
on it. 
And right from next week on and 

667
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,800
we'll we'll get rid of Week 1. 
And it'll be a a four week 

668
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:03,520
rolling average. 
Yep. 

669
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:07,120
But right now some of the guys 
that I wanted to go over where 

670
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:10,320
some nuance is required to 
interpret this chart. 

671
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:15,160
Jonathan Taylor with the high 
ankle sprain, I mean, if he ends

672
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:19,240
up missing, this is an enormous 
amount of snaps to vacate. 

673
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:24,480
So I think that you have to be 
interested in Trey Sermon as a 

674
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:28,000
really cheap option. 
You know, if Taylor misses, you 

675
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,400
probably get Sermon as like the 
chalk DFS play of the week, 

676
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:37,160
wouldn't you agree? 
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, you 

677
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:44,120
would for sure. 
Another guy who I I think that 

678
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:47,280
again, we have to kind of pay 
attention to what happened this 

679
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,560
week and not just what happened 
through the 1st 4 weeks. 

680
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:53,360
Zach Moss up here with an 
incredible usage role getting 

681
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:55,640
touched so. 
Just just just on the JT team, 

682
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:59,600
it looks like I'm not sure how 
many snaps Tyler Goodson's 

683
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:03,280
played, but looks like he he has
gotten on the field. 

684
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:10,680
So he he if if JT misses time. 
Tyler Goodson sneaky super 

685
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:16,000
sneaky waiver pick up. 
OK, I I do. 

686
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,360
I do think sermon would be the 
one that you know gets the 

687
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:20,840
majority of the volume useful. 
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 

688
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:24,520
But you know, like, so some like
someone like Sermon. 

689
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:28,000
It's like sometimes those guys 
don't get the. 

690
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:32,040
Full the full role and and also 
sermon. 

691
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,800
Is a journey line guy. 
Yeah, he could be as bad as 

692
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,080
we've seen him be. 
And I mean the, when you have 

693
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:43,520
guys with that little amount of 
talent relative to what other, 

694
00:41:43,720 --> 00:41:46,560
you know, starting caliber NFL 
players, you know, to be 

695
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:51,080
perfectly clear, Trey Sermon has
has more talent in his pinky for

696
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:53,480
football than I do in my entire 
body 10 times over. 

697
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,760
But, you know, relative to other
NFL running backs, Trey Sermon 

698
00:41:56,760 --> 00:42:00,960
is is not terribly talented. 
So, you know, a guy like that, 

699
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:04,360
it could be a fragile off 
situation where Goodson ends up 

700
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:08,200
leading in snaps in this week. 
So there's a lot of fragility to

701
00:42:08,240 --> 00:42:10,480
it. 
Or it's a 5050. 5050, 

702
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:13,960
Absolutely. 
So like looks like like in Week 

703
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:19,560
2, Goodson had eight snaps, 2 
snaps week three at 1 snap week 

704
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:21,640
4. 
So, but I mean, that's with JT 

705
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:26,240
healthy. 
So even with even even with JT 

706
00:42:26,240 --> 00:42:28,600
healthy, they actually had found
reasons to get this guy in the 

707
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:33,000
field. 
So not a not not a priority, but

708
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,920
definitely a sneak and 
definitely a $1.00 pickup I'll 

709
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:38,240
be doing. 
That's a good call. 

710
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,680
Another one that I think we need
to pay attention to what 

711
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:44,520
happened this week specifically 
and what it means for the usage 

712
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:47,960
going forward is Zac Moss, who's
up here with an incredible role.

713
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:53,240
But I think Chase Brown slappies
can rejoice because I think the 

714
00:42:53,240 --> 00:42:55,320
Chase Brown genie is out of the 
bottle. 

715
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:01,640
It seems like it's going to be 
difficult for the Bengals to 

716
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:05,840
keep rolling out Zac Moss as 
much as they are. 

717
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:08,720
And I'm not saying that his role
will go away. 

718
00:43:09,240 --> 00:43:13,080
I'm just saying, like, when you 
realize what you have in Chase 

719
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:16,640
Brown, which sometimes it does 
take these organizations, you 

720
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:19,120
know, seeing it in a game to 
believe it. 

721
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:22,720
But now that they've seen it, I 
think they're going to have a 

722
00:43:22,720 --> 00:43:26,880
hard time feeling really good 
watching Zac Moss do his thing 

723
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,680
when they know that they've got,
you know, the Lambeau parked in 

724
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:32,000
the garage with Chase Brown. 
Yeah. 

725
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:37,000
And it's interesting. 
So last week they split rush 

726
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:42,000
attempts, which that definitely 
feels like very sustainable. 

727
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:47,360
But what's most interesting is 
that there Zach Moss, and this 

728
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:51,880
is a percentage of team total 
place was 28% routes and then 

729
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:57,200
Chase Brown 17% routes. 
Whereas usually it it was like 

730
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:01,120
chase Brown would be like 40% of
the rush attempt, something like

731
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,360
that. 
And then a really low route 

732
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,640
attempt. 
But then like when he was 

733
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:07,200
running around, who's getting 
the ball. 

734
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:11,200
So like super interesting that 
they were a lot closer on 

735
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,080
routes. 
Now Zach Moss is still doing all

736
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:17,320
the pass blocking. 
I think that's like notable. 

737
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:20,560
I think that's important, but 
that they're that they're 

738
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:25,200
finding ways to to more ways to 
get Chase Brown running routes 

739
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:29,640
is interesting for sure. 
Yeah, the the Zac Moss Pass 

740
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:34,200
blocking stuff I think 
definitely hurts Chase Brown in 

741
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:37,520
that, you know, do you, do you 
think that Chase Brown can 

742
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:41,680
really like get on the field in 
the two-minute roll like or are 

743
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:44,200
they gonna need to keep Zac Moss
on the field there so that he 

744
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,320
can pass block? 
Cause Zac Moss is more like 

745
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:50,320
their do everything guy and 
Chase Brown is there we like. 

746
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,920
That that does seem like a real 
limitation. 

747
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:57,280
Yeah, so we either need Chase 
Brown to develop as a pass 

748
00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:01,880
blocker or there's just a 
ceiling on his upside where he's

749
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:05,640
he's never gonna be able to 
usurp like a a full massive 

750
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,600
role. 
But you know, I think a big 

751
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:11,480
portion of the Chase Brown 
thesis is the incredible 

752
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:13,160
efficiency and explosiveness 
too. 

753
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:16,240
So that's that's the positive 
there. 

754
00:45:16,240 --> 00:45:20,000
But just a note on the Zac Moss 
role here. 

755
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,200
It, it might be more fragile 
going forward now that we've 

756
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:30,000
seen a breakout from Chase 
Brown, another guy who, so this 

757
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:31,240
is a really interesting one, 
Draco. 

758
00:45:31,240 --> 00:45:36,280
This is like trying to get ahead
of what I think would be logical

759
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:41,560
coaching from I think A-Team 
that's sharp enough to get here.

760
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:47,240
But Aaron Jones has been getting
an absolutely insane amount of 

761
00:45:47,240 --> 00:45:51,680
work, like the most work that 
Aaron Jones has had for his 

762
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:54,080
whole career, right? 
Like how many touches did he 

763
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,640
have this last week? 
It was like over 30, right? 

764
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:02,200
And 22 rush attempts, I'm not 
sure how many targets he got, 

765
00:46:02,720 --> 00:46:08,000
but last week he was on the 
field for 80% of of snap or 81% 

766
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:15,320
of snaps and 25 expected points,
which that's a true, true 

767
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,200
workhorse role. 
Like you see like that that that

768
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:23,080
brings you up to Chiron levels. 
Yeah, I don't think that can 

769
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:24,280
hold. 
Right, Right. 

770
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:25,880
He's 29. 
Yeah. 

771
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,840
I I would assume that has to 
scale down a little bit, but we 

772
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:34,200
haven't, we haven't seen them. 
They're not doing that, but I 

773
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:36,760
gotta. 
Turn sturdy in in two months. 

774
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:41,520
I gotta think that they either 
do it by choice or they're 

775
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:44,720
forced to do it. 
You know, knock on wood, but I I

776
00:46:44,720 --> 00:46:47,160
hope that Aaron Jones is able to
stay healthy. 

777
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:50,720
But that's a lot of to give a 
guy who's about to be 30 and and

778
00:46:50,720 --> 00:46:54,680
also has had trouble holding up 
to larger workloads over his. 

779
00:46:56,240 --> 00:47:02,960
Right, I agree. 
I agree and I agree. 

780
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:09,760
I think Ty Chandler did not play
that much. 

781
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:15,200
No well, who can when the when 
the starter plays that much? 

782
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:23,440
But even at over the this over 
this full year, he's got 9% 

783
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:28,120
useful snapshare. 
No, no, sorry, 24% my, my excel 

784
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:32,120
didn't load properly. 24% useful
snapshare over the full year. 

785
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:39,600
And I I mean over a four-game 
sample, I'd rather use the 

786
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:42,200
four-game than than than one 
game sample. 

787
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:46,480
So it, it, it doesn't seem 
unrealistic. 

788
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:52,560
That can take up to 30 or 35%. 
Yeah, I so I would expect Aaron 

789
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:56,240
Jones's role to shrink a tiny 
bit, but I, I still think he is.

790
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:59,160
I mean, he was a smash where 
you're getting in a basketball 

791
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:02,760
drafts as long as he gets 
healthy, like one of the better 

792
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,520
picks on the board. 
Right. 

793
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:08,720
He's already a good a good 
advance rate pick, right? 

794
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:10,880
Oh yeah, he's he's smashing 
right now. 

795
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:15,440
Not like. 
Even even even if you didn't get

796
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,960
great production in the 
playoffs, he'd still like the 

797
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:22,920
the the help that he's given you
to your advance rate is is 

798
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:28,720
probably still beneficial. 
Yeah, one of there's a couple 

799
00:48:28,720 --> 00:48:32,480
guys here where we've got, you 
know, workload concerns, where 

800
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:35,720
they they show up on this chart.
You know, it's having a pretty 

801
00:48:35,720 --> 00:48:40,640
good role, but we're starting, 
they're starting to be at least 

802
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:42,320
a little bit of reason for 
concern. 

803
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:48,440
So Breece Hall is 1 where we saw
Braylon Allen really, you know, 

804
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:52,040
get he got more carries than 
Bruce in this game. 

805
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:56,600
And so I don't know what your 
thoughts are on this Trico. 

806
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,800
It was a. 
Really, So I I I am I'm going to

807
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:04,360
sound like a jerk now. 
I was already worried in in in 

808
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:09,600
in that like I thought that the 
Braille and Allen piece caps his

809
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:13,200
caps. 
Bruce's true or be or be one 

810
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:16,840
like legendary season upside. 
I think I, I think I mentioned 

811
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:25,320
that either last week or the 
week before, but I I certainly 

812
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:33,200
would not freak out about about 
last week because he was still 

813
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:35,600
on the field for 68% of the 
snaps. 

814
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:40,400
He still had an expected points 
of 17 point tree. 

815
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:45,840
He just, he either ran bad or 
played bad. 

816
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:49,760
So his yardage was way under his
touchdowns were right way under 

817
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:54,280
expectation. 
Maybe credit to the Broncos, But

818
00:49:55,640 --> 00:50:02,600
I, I, I, I do think that the 
Braille and Allen stealing work.

819
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:07,920
It's it's not going away, but 
the offense kind of does run 

820
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:13,760
through the box. 
And so even even at 65% of that,

821
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,120
that's still a pretty strong 
role. 

822
00:50:17,240 --> 00:50:21,000
I I think your, your Orby one 
season is probably off the table

823
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:26,840
or without like something like 
really dramatically changing 

824
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:30,600
there, but you're still going to
get pretty strong production I 

825
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:32,920
think from Breeze. 
Yeah. 

826
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:36,320
Maybe he's a silent killer in 
this top 6 though. 

827
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:40,480
Oh, I don't know if I'll go as 
far as Silent Killer. 

828
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:45,480
I'm definitely more to where you
got, where you were where OK. 

829
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,120
I think there's actually cause 
for concern with the Braylon 

830
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:51,120
Allen usage. 
Right. 

831
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:56,360
By Silent Killer, I mean you 
took Breece Hall, which meant 

832
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:59,720
you didn't get Justin Jefferson.
That's what I mean. 

833
00:51:00,240 --> 00:51:02,480
You're like you're you're still 
going to get good scores from 

834
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:06,000
him, but you didn't get Justin 
Jefferson scores. 

835
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:12,840
Yeah, I, I do think that, you 
know, with the The Jets and 

836
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:16,440
Broncos game, it's almost a 
throw out the tape game. 

837
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:19,680
For whatever reason, the rain, 
they seemed to impact them. 

838
00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:22,200
Like there were, there were 
quite a bit of drops in that 

839
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:26,320
game and it just looked like I, 
I, I don't know, both teams look

840
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:27,880
terrible. 
I mean, the Broncos have kind of

841
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:31,560
always looked terrible, but The 
Jets looked pretty atrocious as 

842
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:36,800
well. 
That one's hard to watch, so I I

843
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:39,520
don't want to overreact too much
to it, but I right, right. 

844
00:51:39,680 --> 00:51:41,400
You can't you can't overreact to
it. 

845
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:44,040
Like I agree with you. 
It's a true at the tape game 

846
00:51:44,040 --> 00:51:47,920
where like, you know, what if 
the NFL sometimes the defenses 

847
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:51,440
make plays, it doesn't mean 
Braylon Allen or sorry, Braylon 

848
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:54,200
Allen doesn't mean that Breeze 
Hall is an incredible Braylon 

849
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:58,440
Allen also incredible. 
And I think people are like, oh,

850
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:04,120
Braylon Allen making Breeze Hall
look so like just because brown 

851
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:06,960
Allen isn't incredible, doesn't 
mean that or is incredible 

852
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,200
doesn't mean that Bruce Hall. 
Bruce Hall is bad now. 

853
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:14,360
Like he's still very likely 
going to finish very highly on 

854
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:17,200
the efficiency pieces. 
His volume is still going to be 

855
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:22,560
solid. 
The strong and I I just I I 

856
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:25,640
don't think you get the double 
double the dope that so that 

857
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:28,440
double digit expected points on 
the ground and double digit 

858
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:32,000
expected points in the air, But 
it's it's still going to be 

859
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:35,120
pretty good. 
Yeah, yeah, Well said. 

860
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:42,120
OK, another guy who has I, I, 
I'm starting to be concerned for

861
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:46,680
this guy's role and he has not 
been good so far this season is 

862
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,640
Josh Jacobs. 
Now for Josh Jacobs, you can 

863
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:51,720
say, oh, well, there were two 
games where he didn't have 

864
00:52:51,720 --> 00:52:54,480
Jordan Love, so the defenses 
could really key on him. 

865
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:59,080
But one of his his better games 
came in that first game without 

866
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:01,240
Jordan Love, where the Packers 
had designed it. 

867
00:53:01,240 --> 00:53:05,640
Really well drawn up running 
game and and they were doing 

868
00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:08,240
all, all this innovative stuff 
where they're doing like fake 

869
00:53:08,240 --> 00:53:13,080
guard poles and scheming, you 
know, exotic smash man Yeah, it 

870
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:15,600
it was, it truly was exotic 
Smash Mouth. 

871
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:19,360
And and Jacobs had one of his 
best games from a, you know, 

872
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:23,160
pure box score, but he it it was
really just like compiling. 

873
00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:26,600
He he wasn't wasn't terribly 
efficient in that game at all. 

874
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:31,440
This game, yes, he's super, you 
know, terrible game script for 

875
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:32,880
him. 
So the rushing doesn't look 

876
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:34,560
great. 
He does have one of his bad, 

877
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,600
actually. 
Good game script for Josh 

878
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:38,680
Jacobs. 
Unfortunately for Josh Jacobs, 

879
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:41,080
drafters because. 
Yeah, he splits. 

880
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:45,760
The carries with Emmanuel 
Wilson, but he's a pass blocker 

881
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:49,560
and root runner for the team. 
So in games where they have lots

882
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:52,520
of carries, he's going to split 
the work almost in the middle 

883
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:56,280
with Wilson. 
And so you need the high passing

884
00:53:56,280 --> 00:54:02,360
games for him to get the for him
to get to be on the field at as 

885
00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:03,880
much as he needs to be at his 
cost. 

886
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:08,640
Yeah, I haven't looked into the 
the passing, the receiving 

887
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:11,920
efficiency numbers for Jacobs 
yet, but just from watching the 

888
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:15,400
game, he didn't look incredible 
in the receiving game. 

889
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:18,440
It was just like, this is a warm
body out here doing the thing. 

890
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:20,040
He got 6 targets, so that's 
good. 

891
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:23,720
He, he, he. 
He needs. 

892
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:26,760
That's what he needs, so he 
needs those game scripts where 

893
00:54:26,760 --> 00:54:31,240
he can draw 6 targets. 
Yeah, but but 39% of snaps for 

894
00:54:31,240 --> 00:54:35,080
Emmanuel Wilson and again, this 
was in a game script where they 

895
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:38,680
were passing a bunch and we see 
that Josh is the guy that's out 

896
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:43,840
there for for the passing down. 
So this bodes pretty poorly for 

897
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:45,400
him. 
I I was, yeah. 

898
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:47,080
At the cost. 
At the cost. 

899
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:51,160
You're you're, you're not happy.
I'm, I, you know, just to 

900
00:54:51,240 --> 00:54:53,760
disclose any bias that I might 
have, right? 

901
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:58,640
Make a bet with Sam Sherman on 
rest of season fantasy points 

902
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:03,360
per game, Josh Jacobs versus 
Kyron Williams, and I'm 

903
00:55:03,360 --> 00:55:05,360
considering letting Sam cash 
out. 

904
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:08,720
Our bet was for $100. 
Sam, I'll let you cash out for 

905
00:55:08,720 --> 00:55:18,320
$99.99 right now. 
But yeah, Josh Jacobs, I'm 

906
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:21,600
concerned that we're already 
losing some work to Emanuel 

907
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:27,640
Wilson here. 
We we did got a question here, 

908
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:31,080
Were we able to look more into 
ETN? 

909
00:55:31,240 --> 00:55:35,400
We're looking powerfully into 
why he was down to just 51% 

910
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:37,120
snaps last week. 
Well, he did. 

911
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:39,360
He did have the the shoulder 
injury, right? 

912
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:41,560
Yeah, yeah. 
That, that's what I was 

913
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:44,760
thinking. 
And I, I, and I thought that was

914
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:47,120
kind of the driver of most of 
it, yeah. 

915
00:55:47,120 --> 00:55:49,320
I, I would assume it was the 
shoulder injury. 

916
00:55:50,720 --> 00:55:53,480
So that's I, I would put most of
it on that. 

917
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:57,680
I, I mean, I think another part 
of it is just the Jags stink. 

918
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:03,480
So right. 
And and. 

919
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:06,800
They've told us they wanted to 
do this like last year, they 

920
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:09,880
said, oh, we really need someone
to help take some of the load 

921
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:13,960
off ETN. 
And so I, I think down to 51% of

922
00:56:13,960 --> 00:56:16,880
snaps is probably lower than 
he'll be on average. 

923
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:19,360
And I think part of that is 
because of the injury. 

924
00:56:19,360 --> 00:56:23,440
But I, I think that, you know, 
if you take his, his snap rate 

925
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:27,000
historically for his career, 
it's going to be lower than his 

926
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:30,600
career snap rate this season. 
Now they they seem to be more 

927
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:38,720
comfortable with tank this year.
Yeah, they do, They do and that.

928
00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:46,280
But I, I, I, I've heard a little
bit about Travis ETN. 

929
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:48,640
I just thought he had the 
shoulder injury and then he 

930
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:56,560
returned. 
But sometimes and sometimes the 

931
00:56:56,640 --> 00:57:00,160
NFL teams are they're, they're 
not at Full disclosure when 

932
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:02,720
they're, when they're telling us
about this stuff, right? 

933
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:07,560
But you're right, that thing 
that's like on the reported, but

934
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:09,560
had a bit bigger impact than we 
than we thought. 

935
00:57:10,240 --> 00:57:13,200
And and then I, I just want to 
make sure that we're getting 

936
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:17,200
true comments because I, I like,
I like when people comment and I

937
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:20,320
want to encourage that behavior.
I know you had you had a note 

938
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:24,920
here about Swift. 
Yeah, the the DeAndre Swift, I 

939
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:28,160
mean, he, he got a ton of work 
and was finally efficient with 

940
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:31,840
it. 
I'm I'm chalking it up more to 

941
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:33,600
an anomaly. 
I don't. 

942
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:38,320
I just don't think that to. 
Me, this is actually what we're 

943
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:42,000
getting here is we're getting 
actually this is who DeAndre 

944
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:44,720
Swift is. 
He just plays for the Bears now.

945
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:49,920
Yeah, like where like he don't 
he's been doing he's been 

946
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:53,080
driving people nuts with this 
his entire career were like bad 

947
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:57,400
run, bad run, bad run and then 
one where he looks incredible 

948
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:01,320
and you're probably getting more
the bad runs because it's the 

949
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:05,760
Bears. 
Like this game doesn't work, but

950
00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:11,640
I think the idea that he he it, 
it doesn't feel like his 

951
00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:16,080
snapshare is going down. 
Yeah, I'm looking up. 

952
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:21,440
I want to, I want to confirm 
this before I say it, but I want

953
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:25,960
to say that his long run here 
that made-up for. 

954
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:28,760
Yeah, a lot of. 
Yeah, he had the the big run. 

955
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:35,480
Yeah, it was a 36 yard TD and 
the hole was absolutely like 

956
00:58:36,200 --> 00:58:41,000
there was just nothing but green
grass like it, it was a a gaping

957
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:42,960
hole. 
So you know, we we talk about 

958
00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:46,240
like rush yards over expected. 
Now the the rush yards over 

959
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:50,600
expected model is not gonna say 
like, oh, he had 36 yards to go 

960
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:53,960
between here and the end zone. 
Yeah, we should expect 36 yards.

961
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:57,080
But I mean, in the mental model,
we could go ahead and call it 

962
00:58:57,080 --> 00:58:59,640
like a nice 18 expected yards 
'cause it was. 

963
00:58:59,920 --> 00:59:05,680
So it was an enormous hole. 
But I mean, yes, he's he's doing

964
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:08,800
the stuff that he's done at 
every stop of his career where 

965
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:12,200
he's a low success rate guy, but
he can hit the home run. 

966
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:16,720
He's like, he's like blind 
Kenneth Walker, you know? 

967
00:59:18,680 --> 00:59:23,960
Right. 
So that's pretty fair. 

968
00:59:24,480 --> 00:59:28,520
I guess against against 
Carolina, like sure, you could 

969
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:33,240
do worse, but like just know 
that it's squarely in his range 

970
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:38,520
to have like 14 carries for 21 
yards, you know, and no 

971
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:41,120
touchdowns. 
That's just. 

972
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:45,080
Right. 
Fully agree. 

973
00:59:46,120 --> 00:59:50,480
OK, so Joe, the Joe Mixon role, 
right, right in the range of 

974
00:59:50,480 --> 00:59:53,320
Josh Jacobs or Shaun White, like
pretty good roles that we're 

975
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:57,280
excited about. 
And so with Joe Mixon, if you 

976
00:59:57,280 --> 01:00:01,280
were playing DFS this Sunday, 
you know, I'm I'm the late news 

977
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:03,200
about is Joe Mixon in? 
Is he going to be out? 

978
01:00:03,440 --> 01:00:06,520
Joe Mixon's ruled out. 
Cam Akers immediately becomes 

979
01:00:06,520 --> 01:00:09,400
one of the best plays on the 
slate, projecting incredibly. 

980
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:13,040
You know it. 
It's news happening within less 

981
01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:17,160
than an hour prior to lock so. 
The field did not adjust enough.

982
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:20,960
Cam Akers came in pretty low 
owned for the value that he was.

983
01:00:21,240 --> 01:00:25,000
He was extremely cheap for the 
workload that he was going to be

984
01:00:25,000 --> 01:00:29,160
getting and it couldn't have 
mattered any less because Cam 

985
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:31,440
Akers absolutely stinks out 
loud. 

986
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:36,160
And I, I just, I kind of wish I,
I, I definitely played a good 

987
01:00:36,160 --> 01:00:41,080
chunk of Cam Akers on Sunday. 
I wish I had just stuck more 

988
01:00:41,080 --> 01:00:45,000
strongly to my prior during this
offseason when we saw the Cam 

989
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:49,360
Akers in pre season. 
That's getting people messaging 

990
01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:52,760
me asking me why is it Cam Akers
higher in the leg up basketball 

991
01:00:52,760 --> 01:00:56,640
rankings. 
And I kept replying because we 

992
01:00:56,640 --> 01:01:00,440
just watched him like deke a 
bunch of insurance salesman out 

993
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:03,600
here, you know in a in a third 
pre season game like why do we 

994
01:01:03,600 --> 01:01:07,120
care? 
And I I should have stuck 

995
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:10,000
strongly to that prior because 
that was accurate. 

996
01:01:10,000 --> 01:01:13,800
Cam Akers stinks this. 
Is a true committee too. 

997
01:01:14,240 --> 01:01:18,880
We're at last game. 
So just just so Cam makers of 

998
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:23,840
the useful snapshirt routes plus
rush attempts, Cam makers 32% 

999
01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:30,440
they're going to wall a 32% JJ 
Taylor 18% like just became a 

1000
01:01:30,440 --> 01:01:35,280
true, true committee. 
So like, I I, I don't I don't 

1001
01:01:35,280 --> 01:01:39,640
think Akers is even rosterable 
anymore. 

1002
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:40,880
If. 
He's not. 

1003
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:42,800
Yeah. 
The, the value in this offense 

1004
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:45,800
is in the consolidation. 
I mean, if there's anyone other 

1005
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:48,680
than Joe Mixon that you're 
playing an absolute pinch when 

1006
01:01:48,680 --> 01:01:51,520
you're like, Oh my God, I, I, I 
need anyone. 

1007
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:55,120
You would play dare because he's
the back, right? 

1008
01:01:55,640 --> 01:02:00,480
But that's only in PPR and only.
True desperation. 

1009
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:04,400
I could see myself playing Dare 
is I'm in a managed league where

1010
01:02:04,400 --> 01:02:07,840
the Texans are playing on Monday
night and I thought I was going 

1011
01:02:07,840 --> 01:02:10,600
to have Joe Mixon and he's ruled
out and then go pick up Dare 

1012
01:02:10,720 --> 01:02:15,400
Kumwale and play him. 
So basically just don't don't 

1013
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:18,400
fall for the Acres trap anymore.
The value in this backfield is 

1014
01:02:18,400 --> 01:02:22,440
in the consolidation of of Joe 
Mixon, like being able to get a 

1015
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:25,640
lot of the work. 
So I'm actually, I'm interested 

1016
01:02:25,640 --> 01:02:28,880
in Joe Mixon this week. 
It's against the Bills. 

1017
01:02:28,880 --> 01:02:33,720
So, you know, not not the 
easiest match up in the world, 

1018
01:02:33,920 --> 01:02:39,040
but I just think that if we do 
see him back and he's healthy 

1019
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:43,040
and he gets all of this work, 
he's underpriced for the amount 

1020
01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:47,120
of work that he's gonna get. 
You're talking about Showdown? 

1021
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:49,440
No, no, no. 
He's on the main slate. 

1022
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:52,480
Oh, OK, OK, sorry. 
In my head, you'd said Monday, 

1023
01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:54,640
so I I was confused. 
OK, main slate. 

1024
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:55,680
That makes sense. 
I'm sorry. 

1025
01:02:55,720 --> 01:02:56,080
Yeah. 
Yeah. 

1026
01:02:56,080 --> 01:02:59,320
Now we we finally have our 
explanation on on Swift. 

1027
01:02:59,440 --> 01:03:03,440
He was angry during practice. 
So therefore he that's why he 

1028
01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:06,640
took that completely blocked run
to the house. 

1029
01:03:07,040 --> 01:03:08,880
Yeah, have we? 
Have we considered that maybe 

1030
01:03:09,160 --> 01:03:11,240
DeAndre SO should just be mad 
all the time? 

1031
01:03:11,800 --> 01:03:15,040
Right. 
Yeah, OK. 

1032
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:19,800
Want to want to move through we 
we went through a couple of 

1033
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:25,960
these guys already who might 
lose some work, but man, Rashad 

1034
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:29,680
White is this. 
Buried, absolutely buried. 

1035
01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:31,960
Yeah. 
I, I, I think it's pretty high 

1036
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:38,360
profile that, that Bucky Irving 
is the RB1 now and for the 

1037
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:41,720
Bucks. 
But I I guess we should note it.

1038
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:47,000
Yeah, last last one on this 
chart, then we can move on to 

1039
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:51,040
the efficiency charts. 
Charbonnay's role with Kenneth 

1040
01:03:51,040 --> 01:03:53,240
Walker healthy. 
I mean, Kenneth Walker delivers 

1041
01:03:53,240 --> 01:03:57,600
an absolute incredible, you 
know, welcome back performance 

1042
01:03:57,960 --> 01:04:00,880
last night. 
If you're playing on the short 

1043
01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:04,280
slate or showdown and you did 
not have Kenneth Walker, you did

1044
01:04:04,280 --> 01:04:08,800
not win any money. 
I mean, he had a he had like the

1045
01:04:08,800 --> 01:04:12,200
most classic Kenneth Walker goal
line touch of all time. 

1046
01:04:12,560 --> 01:04:16,400
Where the run he's not 
successful on the run, you know,

1047
01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:20,120
does not hit the hole, the hole 
is is it's not there. 

1048
01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:22,160
Right. 
And they did an offensive end. 

1049
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:25,920
Hutchinson completely closes it.
Not only does he close the hole,

1050
01:04:25,920 --> 01:04:31,160
he pushes it back into Swift. 
And then I'm sorry, Swift into 

1051
01:04:31,240 --> 01:04:33,400
into Walker. 
And then Walker is like, that's 

1052
01:04:33,400 --> 01:04:35,600
OK, I'll just go over here. 
He's like, this is what I 

1053
01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:37,680
wanted, this is what I want to 
do on every play like. 

1054
01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:39,920
See, coach, I couldn't hit the 
hole. 

1055
01:04:41,800 --> 01:04:42,360
Yeah. 
Kenneth. 

1056
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:43,320
Kenneth Walker. 
True. 

1057
01:04:43,520 --> 01:04:45,280
Yeah. 
DeAndre Swift is absolutely 

1058
01:04:45,280 --> 01:04:46,600
diet. 
Kenneth Walker. 

1059
01:04:46,640 --> 01:04:50,440
And I, I mean diet in like the 
most derogatory way I possibly 

1060
01:04:50,440 --> 01:04:53,280
could say it. 
Like, and I, I love DeAndre 

1061
01:04:53,280 --> 01:04:55,280
Swift coming out as a prospect. 
Man, I wish. 

1062
01:04:55,360 --> 01:04:59,240
I wish he was a better player. 
But he and Kenneth Walker have 

1063
01:04:59,240 --> 01:05:03,760
the same issues where they just 
cannot read the law for whatever

1064
01:05:03,760 --> 01:05:06,640
reason. 
But Kenneth Walker delivers the 

1065
01:05:06,640 --> 01:05:10,000
explosive plays frequently 
enough that it's worth the 

1066
01:05:10,000 --> 01:05:11,320
headache. 
Yeah. 

1067
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:15,440
He's so electric. 
I mean, dude, Charbenet looked 

1068
01:05:15,440 --> 01:05:18,120
great too though. 
Like I, I don't know if you saw 

1069
01:05:18,120 --> 01:05:21,000
there was a really, really good 
run where it was well blocked. 

1070
01:05:21,000 --> 01:05:25,080
There's a there's a good hole 
that you know, one where DeAndre

1071
01:05:25,080 --> 01:05:28,280
Swift would still probably be 
able to find it, but Charbonnet 

1072
01:05:28,520 --> 01:05:31,800
gets through and then after 
contact just keeps driving, 

1073
01:05:31,800 --> 01:05:34,640
turns what probably should have 
been like a six yard gain into a

1074
01:05:34,640 --> 01:05:39,040
12 yard gain, just like, oh. 
Baby, I mean, he drove his feet 

1075
01:05:39,040 --> 01:05:41,560
on contact. 
He didn't know the coach has 

1076
01:05:41,560 --> 01:05:46,360
shown that film like, oh, he's 
slowing it down, like showing 

1077
01:05:46,360 --> 01:05:49,240
him chop those. 
Feet look at this effort. 

1078
01:05:49,400 --> 01:05:53,840
But I mean, like Charbonnet is 
is the archetype of back that 

1079
01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:57,600
you just know that coaches love.
Like he's able to do all all the

1080
01:05:57,600 --> 01:05:59,800
stuff. 
He's big, he's running. 

1081
01:05:59,840 --> 01:06:02,840
Right, I can call every play in 
my playbook when this guy is on 

1082
01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:04,240
the field and I don't have to 
feel. 

1083
01:06:04,240 --> 01:06:06,720
Dumb looking good in the passing
game too. 

1084
01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:11,280
Also like, yeah. 
It does feel like the stand 

1085
01:06:11,280 --> 01:06:14,360
alone role. 
So he got 8.6 expected points 

1086
01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:20,040
and 26% useful kind of snap 
share between rush attempts and 

1087
01:06:20,040 --> 01:06:22,720
routes. 
And then the other piece as well

1088
01:06:22,720 --> 01:06:25,800
is I think the biggest thing in 
his favor. 

1089
01:06:26,080 --> 01:06:32,640
So he had he had 16% pass block,
so 16% of team plays he was a 

1090
01:06:32,640 --> 01:06:36,000
pass blocker and just 5% for 
Kenneth Walker. 

1091
01:06:36,760 --> 01:06:40,240
So it seems that they trust him 
as the pass blocker more. 

1092
01:06:40,680 --> 01:06:46,400
So he's like discount Rashad 
White or like discount? 

1093
01:06:46,920 --> 01:06:50,800
Same quality by week 10 as 
Rashad White. 

1094
01:06:50,800 --> 01:06:53,120
Same role, just much much 
cheaper. 

1095
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:56,040
He's a, he's a much better 
rusher than Rashad White, too. 

1096
01:06:56,120 --> 01:07:01,160
And then I think rumors of of 
Charbonnet's like athleticism, 

1097
01:07:01,240 --> 01:07:04,320
like poor athleticism have been 
greatly exaggerated because 

1098
01:07:04,600 --> 01:07:07,400
there were a couple plays I saw 
where so they have him on this 

1099
01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:09,720
little outlet route, right? 
He comes out of the backfield. 

1100
01:07:09,920 --> 01:07:12,560
He's just sitting there. 
Gino progresses pretty quickly 

1101
01:07:12,560 --> 01:07:15,680
through the reads, gets to 
Charbonnet, checks it down. 

1102
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:19,600
Charbonnet beats a guy to the 
sideline to get the first down. 

1103
01:07:19,600 --> 01:07:23,640
And like it was, it was ADB that
he's beating, you know, like he,

1104
01:07:23,640 --> 01:07:25,720
he's not. 
Slow, like he's not a plotter. 

1105
01:07:26,080 --> 01:07:31,080
So he he's he's neutral. 
He's got 8 yards over expected 

1106
01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:35,360
per next Gen. stats. 
I mean, that feels pretty right 

1107
01:07:35,360 --> 01:07:38,920
to me as to who he is as a 
rusher to be like pretty close 

1108
01:07:38,920 --> 01:07:43,400
to league average. 
But like, we were like the vibes

1109
01:07:43,400 --> 01:07:46,520
felt like, no, no, this guy is 
just a bomb, right? 

1110
01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:50,440
Like he, he's a he's somebody 
who's league average at 

1111
01:07:50,440 --> 01:07:53,360
everything. 
And so like you're, you're going

1112
01:07:53,360 --> 01:07:57,440
to get production from him. 
Yeah, the so he's a guy where 

1113
01:07:57,440 --> 01:08:00,360
you've got the the small stand 
alone role, you know, if you're 

1114
01:08:00,360 --> 01:08:04,680
A0RB roster and you need to plug
and play someone, you can if you

1115
01:08:04,680 --> 01:08:07,480
get a really negative game 
script, he's going to benefit 

1116
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:10,120
substantially because he's the 
guy that they want to use more 

1117
01:08:10,120 --> 01:08:13,120
on the passing down stuff and 
more for pass blocking. 

1118
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:16,279
And then of course you have the 
incredible contingent upside, 

1119
01:08:16,279 --> 01:08:19,359
which you've already seen get 
realized with the Kenneth Walker

1120
01:08:19,359 --> 01:08:22,720
injury where Charbenet just 
consolidate everything. 

1121
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:27,080
It it's, you know, like we think
Joe Mixon's a consolidator. 

1122
01:08:27,080 --> 01:08:30,520
No, Zach Charbenet is the true 
consolidator baby. 

1123
01:08:30,520 --> 01:08:33,479
He is the consolidator to end 
all consolidators. 

1124
01:08:33,479 --> 01:08:38,120
So just anyway, you're the value
of Charbonnet obviously 

1125
01:08:38,120 --> 01:08:41,520
decreases with Walker back, but 
it it certainly doesn't go to 

1126
01:08:41,520 --> 01:08:44,359
zero. 
I I still feel really good about

1127
01:08:44,359 --> 01:08:49,000
having Charbonnet on a roster. 
Yeah, yeah, I I feel a lot 

1128
01:08:49,000 --> 01:08:53,880
better about 50% sharps than I 
did have to kick off. 

1129
01:08:55,600 --> 01:08:58,880
All right, let's let's go to the
backups chart. 

1130
01:08:59,399 --> 01:09:01,359
I don't think I had any notes 
here. 

1131
01:09:01,399 --> 01:09:06,720
Oh, I guess we could talk about 
Hunter Lipke leading the Cowboys

1132
01:09:06,720 --> 01:09:10,319
backfield in snaps. 
So I think some of this is like 

1133
01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:15,200
is like misleading because like 
obviously a lot of this is is 

1134
01:09:15,319 --> 01:09:18,880
run blocking. 
Yeah, it's it's it's a fullback.

1135
01:09:19,080 --> 01:09:22,680
It's it's legit. 
The grey is like mostly fullback

1136
01:09:23,160 --> 01:09:25,359
role. 
Right, right. 

1137
01:09:25,560 --> 01:09:29,640
He's got like he's got a 
honestly, he's got similar role 

1138
01:09:29,640 --> 01:09:37,920
to some IGP Ryan and as as a the
actual ball carrier or, or 

1139
01:09:37,920 --> 01:09:42,760
target and, and and and then he 
he has a full back role as well.

1140
01:09:43,200 --> 01:09:47,439
He's he's Cowboys, Daria 
Goombawali plus Carson Steele. 

1141
01:09:49,840 --> 01:09:53,720
So it's not great, right? 
Honestly, what it is is it's a 

1142
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:56,680
thorn in the side for for Rico 
Dowdle, which is probably just 

1143
01:09:56,680 --> 01:09:59,600
an indictment on Rico Dowdle 
that he can't earn more. 

1144
01:10:01,240 --> 01:10:03,440
But I just, I think that what 
you're going to get from this 

1145
01:10:03,440 --> 01:10:07,960
backfield is is mostly floor 
with not great ceiling this 

1146
01:10:07,960 --> 01:10:11,480
season. 
Just kind of like there's no one

1147
01:10:11,480 --> 01:10:14,160
usable outside of Dowdle and 
Dowdle is more of just like a 

1148
01:10:14,160 --> 01:10:16,560
floor play just fine for what 
you paid for him. 

1149
01:10:16,640 --> 01:10:19,520
You you obviously were hoping 
for the ceiling. 

1150
01:10:19,520 --> 01:10:24,560
So I, I don't really think 
there's a path to the ceiling 

1151
01:10:24,560 --> 01:10:27,440
being realized through talent 
for Rico Dowdle after four 

1152
01:10:27,440 --> 01:10:31,720
weeks, because the Hunter Lipke 
snaps are, are a pretty major 

1153
01:10:31,720 --> 01:10:34,680
indictment of, of that, you 
know, talent case for Rico 

1154
01:10:34,680 --> 01:10:37,200
Dowdle. 
So I think you're only out to 

1155
01:10:37,200 --> 01:10:41,520
Rico Dowdle being a smash is the
Cowboys offense absolutely 

1156
01:10:41,520 --> 01:10:44,080
begins cooking because Rico 
Dowdle does get the goal line 

1157
01:10:44,080 --> 01:10:45,720
stuff. 
He gets the short yardage stuff.

1158
01:10:46,240 --> 01:10:49,600
And then they they designed a 
screen for him inside the Green 

1159
01:10:49,600 --> 01:10:52,920
Zone or in the red zone, and he 
converts that into a touchdown. 

1160
01:10:53,560 --> 01:10:57,640
But yeah, I think you're good to
know. 

1161
01:10:58,560 --> 01:11:00,640
Yeah. 
Path for Rico Dowdle is Cowboys 

1162
01:11:00,640 --> 01:11:04,960
have to get a lot better. 
And they don't show signs of 

1163
01:11:04,960 --> 01:11:07,040
doing that. 
So maybe you got to wait for the

1164
01:11:07,040 --> 01:11:09,200
Cowboys bye week again. 
Maybe they'll figure it out 

1165
01:11:09,200 --> 01:11:14,920
after a bye. 
Yeah, yeah, maybe they'll dial 

1166
01:11:14,920 --> 01:11:18,560
it up to CDLM again and that'll 
work in magic. 

1167
01:11:18,600 --> 01:11:22,480
CDLM needs to be on pace for 250
targets for that offense to be 

1168
01:11:22,480 --> 01:11:24,960
at all functional. 
Right. 

1169
01:11:25,680 --> 01:11:30,160
And so we just had the Snapchat 
and now we're looking at 

1170
01:11:30,160 --> 01:11:34,200
expected points and efficiency. 
So the way I think about the 

1171
01:11:34,200 --> 01:11:37,000
Snapchat is that it helps you 
see the underlying stuff. 

1172
01:11:37,560 --> 01:11:42,240
It doesn't always translate into
expected points, but like over 

1173
01:11:42,240 --> 01:11:44,960
time it should. 
It's like the underlying, It's 

1174
01:11:44,960 --> 01:11:47,360
like the, it's almost like the 
peripheral stuff. 

1175
01:11:47,960 --> 01:11:51,200
And whereas this is like, OK, 
who actually, who actually did 

1176
01:11:51,200 --> 01:11:53,120
get the target? 
Who actually did get the curse? 

1177
01:11:54,960 --> 01:11:57,960
And then you also have the 
bubble, which shows who's been 

1178
01:11:58,000 --> 01:12:03,680
efficient and who has not. 
And did you have any notes on 

1179
01:12:03,680 --> 01:12:06,400
this? 
Yeah, for for this one, we 

1180
01:12:06,400 --> 01:12:08,600
talked about a lot of these guys
already. 

1181
01:12:09,640 --> 01:12:12,520
I won't highlight one that we 
didn't mention here yet. 

1182
01:12:13,680 --> 01:12:16,600
And he kind of falls in the 
category of guys were concerned 

1183
01:12:16,600 --> 01:12:20,120
might lose some work due to 
efficiency or or some of the 

1184
01:12:20,120 --> 01:12:23,040
other, you know smaller stuff 
that we've noticed from a single

1185
01:12:23,040 --> 01:12:25,640
game. 
I mean, look at the size of Naji

1186
01:12:25,640 --> 01:12:28,560
Harris's bubble. 
He is right on that borderline 

1187
01:12:28,560 --> 01:12:33,440
between the 1510 to 15 expected 
fantasy points and 15 to 20 

1188
01:12:33,440 --> 01:12:37,240
expected fantasy points, right 
where Draco's mouse cursor is. 

1189
01:12:37,560 --> 01:12:40,160
So he's getting a ton of 
opportunity. 

1190
01:12:40,560 --> 01:12:42,480
The problem is he stinks out 
loud. 

1191
01:12:43,080 --> 01:12:47,640
So the Jalen Warren thesis is 
actually looking pretty alive. 

1192
01:12:47,920 --> 01:12:50,240
You just need Jalen Warren to 
get healthy. 

1193
01:12:51,240 --> 01:12:55,680
I mean, if if Jalen Warren is 
able to get the usage that Naji 

1194
01:12:55,680 --> 01:12:59,120
Harris is getting right now, 
which we already kind of saw 

1195
01:12:59,120 --> 01:13:03,840
signs of of that beginning to 
trend prior to him, you know, 

1196
01:13:04,000 --> 01:13:07,240
missing time due to injury. 
But he was already getting more 

1197
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:10,440
snaps than Naji and getting more
opportunities than Naji in the 

1198
01:13:10,440 --> 01:13:12,280
first half of the game that he 
ended up leaving. 

1199
01:13:13,440 --> 01:13:17,680
And I I think that the team is 
realizing like, yeah, this is 

1200
01:13:18,160 --> 01:13:22,880
this Naji experiment is done. 
I mean, Cordero Patterson was 

1201
01:13:23,640 --> 01:13:26,800
looking like the better back, 
which Yikes. 

1202
01:13:27,920 --> 01:13:32,440
So, so Naji, if you've got Naji 
and have any way to move him for

1203
01:13:32,440 --> 01:13:36,320
anything in like a a normal 
redraft league, like do it now 

1204
01:13:36,320 --> 01:13:38,160
'cause I don't think there's 
very much value there. 

1205
01:13:38,680 --> 01:13:40,880
It what's here's a here's a 
question for you. 

1206
01:13:41,360 --> 01:13:44,680
Naji Harris is just higher 
volume. 

1207
01:13:44,680 --> 01:13:51,080
Rico Dowdle, True or False? 
Is that fair to Rico Dowdle? 

1208
01:13:52,800 --> 01:13:54,800
Let's go to the Let's go to the 
other chart real quick. 

1209
01:13:54,840 --> 01:13:59,040
Look at Rico's efficiency. 
No, it's not fair to Rico 

1210
01:13:59,040 --> 01:14:01,360
Dowdle. 
Yeah, Rico Dowdle would be much 

1211
01:14:01,360 --> 01:14:03,800
more productive with the Naji 
Harris volume that looks like 

1212
01:14:03,800 --> 01:14:05,400
he's right there next to Taji 
Spears. 

1213
01:14:05,400 --> 01:14:06,360
Taji, Right? 
Yeah. 

1214
01:14:06,520 --> 01:14:08,520
Rico Dowdle, Same player. 
Who knew? 

1215
01:14:09,800 --> 01:14:14,120
So Rico Dowdle, he's probably 
like NFL average efficiency. 

1216
01:14:15,160 --> 01:14:17,840
Naji is just true true utter dog
shit. 

1217
01:14:17,960 --> 01:14:22,200
And that's that is I mean Rico 
Dowdle barely missed the cut 

1218
01:14:22,200 --> 01:14:25,920
last year for the Rushard's over
expected stuff. 

1219
01:14:26,160 --> 01:14:30,800
He was like 1 carry two light. 
But Pat Karain, you know, 

1220
01:14:31,280 --> 01:14:35,000
working the the backroom deals 
was able to get the Rico Dowdle 

1221
01:14:35,800 --> 01:14:39,520
efficiency numbers and found 
that he was basically exactly 

1222
01:14:39,520 --> 01:14:42,200
break even. 
I think he was like minus single

1223
01:14:42,200 --> 01:14:46,280
digit rush yards over expected 
last year on like 99 attempts or

1224
01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:49,680
something like that. 
And so he he seems pretty league

1225
01:14:49,680 --> 01:14:52,200
average. 
Naji definitely not league 

1226
01:14:52,200 --> 01:14:56,280
average other guys that we can 
see on this chart that are so in

1227
01:14:56,320 --> 01:14:57,920
that. 
I just just want to point out 

1228
01:14:58,840 --> 01:15:00,440
something that I know it's 
Breece Hall. 

1229
01:15:00,960 --> 01:15:04,440
Yeah, he's looking like pretty 
inefficient. 

1230
01:15:05,040 --> 01:15:08,360
Well, this, I mean, this game 
was really this, this last game,

1231
01:15:08,360 --> 01:15:11,200
he, he looked not great as a 
rusher this last game. 

1232
01:15:11,200 --> 01:15:14,120
That was why I was a little 
concerned. 

1233
01:15:14,320 --> 01:15:17,440
Yeah. 
But like, I, I believe so 

1234
01:15:17,440 --> 01:15:20,840
strongly in the talent thesis 
for Breece that I, I'm willing 

1235
01:15:20,840 --> 01:15:24,200
to just talk about this game. 
But yeah, like, I, I don't want 

1236
01:15:24,200 --> 01:15:26,440
to just be biased and be like, 
oh, well, that's my guy. 

1237
01:15:26,440 --> 01:15:29,280
So it doesn't matter. 
But like that, there's a there's

1238
01:15:29,280 --> 01:15:33,040
a reason why I came around to, I
think you and I are pretty 

1239
01:15:33,080 --> 01:15:36,920
aligned now on how we feel about
Breece as a player. 

1240
01:15:37,760 --> 01:15:40,960
Why I think right, you were a 
little more concerned than I 

1241
01:15:40,960 --> 01:15:42,720
was. 
And I've I've come around and 

1242
01:15:42,720 --> 01:15:49,160
I've seen a light year ago. 
Well, I, yeah, I the only, the 

1243
01:15:49,160 --> 01:15:53,200
only thing I, I, I, I want to 
point out is like I, I would 

1244
01:15:53,200 --> 01:15:57,880
expect Breece Hall to be like 
efficient over the, over the 

1245
01:15:57,880 --> 01:16:00,440
course of the year. 
I I agree, yeah. 

1246
01:16:00,440 --> 01:16:05,840
I, I mean, I, I still full, you 
know, wholeheartedly believe 

1247
01:16:05,840 --> 01:16:08,920
that he is the most talented 
back in the league. 

1248
01:16:09,040 --> 01:16:13,000
So I, I, you know, I expect him 
to be fine. 

1249
01:16:13,400 --> 01:16:17,840
I just think Braylon Allen is 
also a top five most talented 

1250
01:16:17,840 --> 01:16:20,920
back in the league. 
So right Troubling for. 

1251
01:16:21,080 --> 01:16:25,040
For him, yeah, yeah, yeah. 
And and and I'm I'm what you 

1252
01:16:25,040 --> 01:16:29,160
call it. 
I'm not a I'm more talking about

1253
01:16:29,160 --> 01:16:33,720
the efficiency piece where like 
I think, I think you should 

1254
01:16:33,720 --> 01:16:39,000
expect when we get 65% of like a
pie that's smaller than we 

1255
01:16:39,200 --> 01:16:43,160
sorry, the 65% is smaller, but 
the pie is, is probably pretty 

1256
01:16:43,160 --> 01:16:45,840
large. 
But the fact that he's been 

1257
01:16:45,840 --> 01:16:50,560
really inefficient, I think we 
should expect him to be 

1258
01:16:50,560 --> 01:16:54,000
efficient. 
And so for there to be much, 

1259
01:16:54,000 --> 01:16:57,840
much better Breeze holidays, 
yeah, than we've been getting. 

1260
01:16:58,320 --> 01:17:02,440
Yeah, Well, well, put. 
Going going back to some of the 

1261
01:17:02,440 --> 01:17:06,400
guys that we think might have 
some fragility in their role 

1262
01:17:06,400 --> 01:17:08,480
going forward just due to poor 
efficiency. 

1263
01:17:09,280 --> 01:17:12,000
I mean, Samir White, but he 
never really has had much of A 

1264
01:17:12,000 --> 01:17:14,560
role to begin with. 
You can see the size of his 

1265
01:17:14,720 --> 01:17:17,480
little bubble there. 
Josh Jacobs, who we already 

1266
01:17:17,480 --> 01:17:20,240
talked about, and Rashad White, 
who we already talked about. 

1267
01:17:20,240 --> 01:17:25,240
So yeah, bad, bad season. 
To have the last name as White 

1268
01:17:25,320 --> 01:17:29,000
and be an NFL running back 
doesn't seem great for those 

1269
01:17:29,000 --> 01:17:32,200
guys. 
Yeah. 

1270
01:17:32,200 --> 01:17:34,400
We, we, we spent time on that, 
on running back. 

1271
01:17:34,640 --> 01:17:35,920
Yeah, I think, I think we're 
going to move. 

1272
01:17:35,920 --> 01:17:39,800
On here. 
So this is our tight end 

1273
01:17:39,800 --> 01:17:41,960
utilization and efficiency 
chart. 

1274
01:17:42,160 --> 01:17:47,160
So we're focusing on the 
starters here and because tight 

1275
01:17:47,160 --> 01:17:52,040
end, it's such a team driven 
position, we like the team has 

1276
01:17:52,040 --> 01:17:55,840
to decide that yes, this guy is 
gonna run most of the rats. 

1277
01:17:55,840 --> 01:17:59,440
We're not gonna have a committee
of tight ends and then we're 

1278
01:17:59,440 --> 01:18:01,600
gonna make this act. 
We're gonna treat this guy like 

1279
01:18:01,600 --> 01:18:04,240
a down the field receiver. 
It's not just gonna be short 

1280
01:18:04,240 --> 01:18:07,120
stuff. 
And so that's why we look at 

1281
01:18:07,120 --> 01:18:10,000
percentage of team drop backs. 
That's why we look at a dot 

1282
01:18:10,280 --> 01:18:14,840
target spread run and and one 
thing that I thought was 

1283
01:18:14,840 --> 01:18:18,080
interesting and I I Sam chairman
had a really funny tweet about 

1284
01:18:18,080 --> 01:18:20,160
it. 
Whereas like unprecedented 

1285
01:18:20,360 --> 01:18:25,120
government aid to Travis Kelsey 
drafters in the in the in the 

1286
01:18:25,640 --> 01:18:32,000
former Rashi Rice injury where 
like he actually had like Travis

1287
01:18:32,000 --> 01:18:38,960
Kelsey type usage last week. 
Yeah, No, that's a, that's a 

1288
01:18:38,960 --> 01:18:41,760
really good point. 
Yeah, I, I guess that is, you 

1289
01:18:41,760 --> 01:18:44,640
know, the the lifeline you 
needed if you drafted Travis 

1290
01:18:44,640 --> 01:18:49,400
Kelsey. 
I had. 94% routes, 28% targets 

1291
01:18:49,400 --> 01:18:53,320
per run 8.9 A dot. 
Man, it is. 

1292
01:18:53,360 --> 01:18:58,120
It's so crazy to me that Rashi 
Rice was just able to fully cock

1293
01:18:58,120 --> 01:19:00,520
Travis Kelsey though. 
Like, right. 

1294
01:19:00,640 --> 01:19:04,640
I don't know if I mean, it says 
something. 

1295
01:19:04,800 --> 01:19:09,080
I'm not sure if it's saying more
about how good Rushy Rice was or

1296
01:19:09,080 --> 01:19:12,680
how much how diminished Travis 
Kelce is, you know, compared to 

1297
01:19:12,680 --> 01:19:16,200
the former version of himself. 
The truth is probably somewhere 

1298
01:19:16,200 --> 01:19:18,600
in between. 
I think Rushy Rice pretty good. 

1299
01:19:18,880 --> 01:19:21,640
I think Travis Kelce is probably
a slightly diminished version of

1300
01:19:21,640 --> 01:19:24,480
himself. 
But yeah, definitely a bailout 

1301
01:19:25,200 --> 01:19:29,440
for Kelsey. 
The I had I had one note, 1 main

1302
01:19:29,440 --> 01:19:31,040
note here on the tight end 
chart. 

1303
01:19:31,400 --> 01:19:33,440
I'm just going to read it as 
it's written here. 

1304
01:19:33,960 --> 01:19:37,720
So I teared the tight ends out. 
It's Jake Ferguson, Trey 

1305
01:19:37,720 --> 01:19:40,840
McBride, Brock Bowers, and 
that's in no particular order. 

1306
01:19:41,000 --> 01:19:46,640
Tear break Kittle, La Porta, 
tear break Dalton Kincaid, 

1307
01:19:46,640 --> 01:19:50,160
Dallas Codder, tear break 50 
feet of shit. 

1308
01:19:50,520 --> 01:19:54,240
Every other tight end. 
That's, that's how it feels this

1309
01:19:54,240 --> 01:19:58,920
year. 
I, I think we just so I don't 

1310
01:19:58,920 --> 01:20:01,360
know, have you had a chance to, 
to read stealing signals yet? 

1311
01:20:01,360 --> 01:20:03,760
Because Gretsch had a really 
interesting piece. 

1312
01:20:03,760 --> 01:20:09,360
No, no, no, I haven't. 
So not to not to like just 

1313
01:20:09,400 --> 01:20:12,320
regurgitate stealing signals, 
but I thought this was so 

1314
01:20:13,360 --> 01:20:17,240
poignant and and well thought 
through that I want to share a 

1315
01:20:17,240 --> 01:20:20,440
little bit of it. 
But it was explaining why tight 

1316
01:20:20,440 --> 01:20:24,280
end, you know, for the whole 
landscape of tight end is 

1317
01:20:24,280 --> 01:20:29,840
experiencing this, this major 
production decrease and very 

1318
01:20:29,840 --> 01:20:32,720
contrary to what we were 
expecting based on the talent 

1319
01:20:32,720 --> 01:20:36,160
level of some of these tight 
ends that we have right now as 

1320
01:20:36,160 --> 01:20:40,880
pass catchers. 
And the to to really summarize 

1321
01:20:40,880 --> 01:20:43,600
something that is definitely 
worth the full read. 

1322
01:20:45,080 --> 01:20:49,240
It's it just comes down to the 
archetype of defender that is 

1323
01:20:49,240 --> 01:20:51,640
useful now in the NFL is 
different. 

1324
01:20:51,640 --> 01:20:54,440
So like for linebackers, 
historically, you would have 

1325
01:20:54,440 --> 01:20:58,240
these larger bodied guys that 
were more geared towards run 

1326
01:20:58,240 --> 01:21:02,280
stopping and then they would get
assigned coverage on tight ends 

1327
01:21:02,280 --> 01:21:04,600
occasionally. 
And that was why that whole 

1328
01:21:04,600 --> 01:21:07,480
tight end mismatch thing 
existed, right? 

1329
01:21:07,480 --> 01:21:10,640
You had these tight ends who 
were much better athletes, you 

1330
01:21:10,640 --> 01:21:14,200
know, much faster than these big
bulky linebackers and you're 

1331
01:21:14,200 --> 01:21:16,280
getting need to run routes on 
these guys and it was just an 

1332
01:21:16,280 --> 01:21:20,960
absolute personnel mismatch. 
Well, now the whole league has 

1333
01:21:20,960 --> 01:21:23,480
shifted to more of a passing 
league and so you're getting 

1334
01:21:23,480 --> 01:21:27,000
these smaller, faster, much more
competent and coverage 

1335
01:21:27,000 --> 01:21:30,920
linebackers and it's making the 
tight end mismatch thing just 

1336
01:21:30,920 --> 01:21:36,120
not like Kyle Pitts 5-10 years 
ago probably would have been 

1337
01:21:36,160 --> 01:21:41,000
absolutely destroying the game. 
But now Kyle Pitts is slow like 

1338
01:21:41,000 --> 01:21:43,320
compared to the guys that are 
covering Kyle Pitts. 

1339
01:21:43,840 --> 01:21:46,800
Like yeah, this guy is nothing 
special. 

1340
01:21:46,800 --> 01:21:49,480
He's a sub athlete compared to 
these guys so. 

1341
01:21:50,240 --> 01:21:53,680
I think and also there's a 
difference between not to get 

1342
01:21:53,680 --> 01:21:55,760
too Football League, but there's
a difference between a 

1343
01:21:56,480 --> 01:22:01,640
linebacker who's doing their 2 
foot, 2 step run first, then 

1344
01:22:01,640 --> 01:22:05,880
pass to a linebacker who's like 
OK, I gotta win my coverage and 

1345
01:22:05,880 --> 01:22:08,840
then we'll think about the run 
like that. 

1346
01:22:08,840 --> 01:22:10,320
That makes a big, big 
difference. 

1347
01:22:11,120 --> 01:22:13,600
Yeah, yeah. 
But anyway, I, I thought it was 

1348
01:22:13,600 --> 01:22:15,760
really insightful. 
If you have not read Stealing 

1349
01:22:15,760 --> 01:22:18,440
Signals yet or for whatever 
reason you're not subscribed to 

1350
01:22:18,440 --> 01:22:20,400
ceiling signals, I would 
definitely recommend it. 

1351
01:22:20,400 --> 01:22:24,360
It, it was a very enlightening 
way to think about the trend 

1352
01:22:24,360 --> 01:22:26,280
that we're seeing across the 
league so far. 

1353
01:22:28,240 --> 01:22:30,960
But yeah, how? 
I mean, do you do you agree with

1354
01:22:30,960 --> 01:22:33,360
those tight end tiers in 
general, Draco? 

1355
01:22:34,200 --> 01:22:37,440
And yeah, yeah, seems pretty 
fair. 

1356
01:22:37,680 --> 01:22:41,080
Seems pretty fair. 
I, I did like that last week and

1357
01:22:41,120 --> 01:22:46,440
Laporta, he got back up to a 21%
and target per at run, his A dot

1358
01:22:46,440 --> 01:22:52,080
was was -1.3. 
And so that, that feels a lot 

1359
01:22:52,080 --> 01:22:56,720
more encouraging than like his 
full season target per at run is

1360
01:22:56,720 --> 01:23:01,720
like 9%, like 20% is probably a 
lot closer to what what we 

1361
01:23:01,720 --> 01:23:05,080
should expect over the over the 
full year. 

1362
01:23:06,120 --> 01:23:09,160
So that was encouraging even 
even if I, I don't think we got 

1363
01:23:09,160 --> 01:23:13,160
like an amazing game from 
LaPorte, but still still 

1364
01:23:13,160 --> 01:23:16,560
encouraging after like a pretty 
purse start. 

1365
01:23:17,360 --> 01:23:22,560
I saw somebody mentioned so 
Brock Bowers with the, the quote

1366
01:23:22,560 --> 01:23:26,800
UN quote injuries. 
He had an 81% route share last 

1367
01:23:26,800 --> 01:23:29,960
week, but just a 14% target for 
a run. 

1368
01:23:29,960 --> 01:23:34,280
Somebody said that, and I think 
this was Sam Sherman again, and 

1369
01:23:34,400 --> 01:23:38,920
that he was doing a lot of like 
chip off the line and then and 

1370
01:23:38,920 --> 01:23:44,760
then run a yeah, run a route. 
And I, I do wonder if that was 

1371
01:23:44,760 --> 01:23:49,280
because Michael Meyer was out. 
And that's kind of the Michael 

1372
01:23:49,280 --> 01:23:53,600
Meyer thing. 
And so hopefully Michael Meyer 

1373
01:23:53,680 --> 01:23:58,600
makes a business decision to to 
play on when he hasn't done 

1374
01:23:58,600 --> 01:24:02,400
anything in the league yet. 
Yeah, pretty, pretty funny. 

1375
01:24:02,400 --> 01:24:05,160
I mean, I was smashed. 
I was jamming Brock Bowers in 

1376
01:24:05,160 --> 01:24:07,120
last week. 
I was thinking, oh, man, Michael

1377
01:24:07,120 --> 01:24:10,720
Meyer out, Devante Adams out. 
Brock Bowers is about to get 

1378
01:24:10,720 --> 01:24:13,680
100% of snaps. 
Like he's going to be feasting. 

1379
01:24:13,920 --> 01:24:17,000
It turns out Michael Meyer out 
might actually be a bad thing 

1380
01:24:17,040 --> 01:24:20,240
for Brock Bowers because they 
like using both tight ends and 

1381
01:24:20,240 --> 01:24:23,400
just having one of them be more 
of like an extra lineman. 

1382
01:24:23,400 --> 01:24:27,880
So yeah, I'm not, I'm not very 
worried about Brock Bowers at 

1383
01:24:27,880 --> 01:24:30,080
all. 
I think he's still, you know, 

1384
01:24:30,200 --> 01:24:32,760
absolutely belongs in the tier 
one of tight ends. 

1385
01:24:32,760 --> 01:24:35,640
Very, very strong chance to be 
tight end one rest of the 

1386
01:24:35,640 --> 01:24:39,240
season. 
The guy who is the here here's 

1387
01:24:39,240 --> 01:24:42,120
some dog bowl and and underdog 
BR go. 

1388
01:24:42,640 --> 01:24:43,280
Go. 
Ahead. 

1389
01:24:43,320 --> 01:24:49,080
Actually, the guy who's the most
mispriced by like round two 

1390
01:24:49,080 --> 01:24:50,720
rounds right now is Trey 
McBride. 

1391
01:24:51,560 --> 01:24:53,960
He just has the questionable tag
because of the concussion. 

1392
01:24:53,960 --> 01:24:56,960
People are like, Oh, I don't 
know, but it's it's against the 

1393
01:24:56,960 --> 01:24:59,160
49ers. 
It's going to be a high game 

1394
01:24:59,160 --> 01:25:03,640
total like the the 49ers and 
Cardinals when, when they've 

1395
01:25:03,640 --> 01:25:09,200
played in, you know, recent 
years have have been a very fun 

1396
01:25:09,200 --> 01:25:11,800
game. 
So I, I would, I'd be jamming 

1397
01:25:11,800 --> 01:25:15,240
Trey McBride before he gets 
cleared from concussion protocol

1398
01:25:15,240 --> 01:25:20,760
and before projections come out 
right now in my, I just did my, 

1399
01:25:20,840 --> 01:25:25,280
my rankings for him just really 
based on, you know, going 

1400
01:25:25,280 --> 01:25:28,600
through production and 
everything and not not making 

1401
01:25:28,600 --> 01:25:31,960
any projections based rankings. 
Just purely like looking at 

1402
01:25:31,960 --> 01:25:34,600
what's happened so far this 
season and utilization, things 

1403
01:25:34,600 --> 01:25:36,960
like that. 
And I have McBride in the first 

1404
01:25:36,960 --> 01:25:41,680
round for this week for a dog 
bowl, So 1212 man drafts and he,

1405
01:25:41,680 --> 01:25:43,560
you can get him at like the 2-3 
turn right now. 

1406
01:25:43,560 --> 01:25:49,680
So he feels like a pretty strong
click currently that. 

1407
01:25:49,680 --> 01:25:51,960
You don't. 
You don't have to talk me into 

1408
01:25:53,320 --> 01:25:56,800
into Trey McBride. 
What happened with DALT? 

1409
01:25:56,840 --> 01:26:01,880
I'm seeing that Dalton Kincaid. 
So he had just a 59% route share

1410
01:26:02,200 --> 01:26:05,360
last week. 
He did have a 32% target sprout 

1411
01:26:05,360 --> 01:26:09,560
run. 
So like low routes and but the 

1412
01:26:09,560 --> 01:26:11,640
routes he was running, he was 
getting targeted the high 

1413
01:26:11,640 --> 01:26:14,520
amount. 
And I didn't see anything about 

1414
01:26:14,520 --> 01:26:17,680
an injury for him or anything 
like that, that that doesn't 

1415
01:26:17,680 --> 01:26:19,640
feel great. 
Nope, it's not. 

1416
01:26:19,800 --> 01:26:23,000
It's. 
I mean, it's what that's part of

1417
01:26:23,000 --> 01:26:26,160
why I was concerned about him 
because they really seem to want

1418
01:26:26,160 --> 01:26:31,280
to use both him and Knox. 
The the stuff that is, is 

1419
01:26:31,280 --> 01:26:34,840
bullish for Kincaid is that, you
know, really high targets per 

1420
01:26:34,840 --> 01:26:37,760
outrun when he is on the field. 
They are, they're, they're doing

1421
01:26:37,760 --> 01:26:40,800
the scheme Dalton Kincaid stuff.
They run through the air to 

1422
01:26:40,800 --> 01:26:45,120
Dalton Kincaid often and in in 
fact, this week would be a week 

1423
01:26:45,120 --> 01:26:48,000
where I would would be really 
into it because they're playing 

1424
01:26:48,000 --> 01:26:50,800
against the Texans who have a 
really, really strong defensive 

1425
01:26:50,800 --> 01:26:53,120
line, pretty, pretty good 
against the run. 

1426
01:26:53,960 --> 01:26:57,440
They're they have Khalil Shakur 
on an injury report currently 

1427
01:26:57,960 --> 01:27:02,080
and I'm it sounds like he'll 
probably be able to play, but 

1428
01:27:02,080 --> 01:27:05,240
Khalil Shakur is the number one 
target earner outside of Dalton 

1429
01:27:05,240 --> 01:27:08,800
Kincaid on this offense. 
So I'm thinking if Shakur is it 

1430
01:27:08,800 --> 01:27:12,080
all banged up and it's going to 
be harder for them to run than 

1431
01:27:12,080 --> 01:27:14,400
usual than against an an average
opponent. 

1432
01:27:14,720 --> 01:27:16,440
And we know that they want to 
run. 

1433
01:27:16,800 --> 01:27:19,440
I think you could get a lot of 
this Dalton Kincaid run through 

1434
01:27:19,440 --> 01:27:21,480
the air nonsense that they want 
to do. 

1435
01:27:22,040 --> 01:27:26,040
And even if he's only getting 
this 59% of snaps, tight end is 

1436
01:27:26,040 --> 01:27:29,400
so bad that it's probably still 
pretty good. 

1437
01:27:30,520 --> 01:27:35,040
Do do you think that some of the
the snap stuff there is because 

1438
01:27:35,720 --> 01:27:37,680
he's not much of A blocker? 
Yeah. 

1439
01:27:37,680 --> 01:27:42,480
And then as they focus on the 
run, like I was like, OK, sorry 

1440
01:27:42,480 --> 01:27:46,840
but this isn't your play. 
And this is one thing that 

1441
01:27:46,840 --> 01:27:51,760
Karain has noted in his research
on tight ends is that what you 

1442
01:27:51,760 --> 01:27:55,920
actually want for the best 
fantasy outcomes for tight ends 

1443
01:27:55,920 --> 01:27:59,800
is you want guys that are really
good blockers as well. 

1444
01:28:00,480 --> 01:28:03,240
And they will have to be elite 
blockers, but they need to be 

1445
01:28:03,240 --> 01:28:05,880
competent blockers to where 
they're not losing snaps for it.

1446
01:28:06,360 --> 01:28:09,720
Because just like coaches want 
running backs that can do 

1447
01:28:09,720 --> 01:28:12,400
everything, so you're not 
tipping your hand based on what 

1448
01:28:12,400 --> 01:28:15,720
running back is, coaches also 
want tight ends that can do 

1449
01:28:15,720 --> 01:28:18,000
everything. 
So again, you're not tipping 

1450
01:28:18,000 --> 01:28:21,160
your hand by who's in the game 
because right now when Dalton 

1451
01:28:21,160 --> 01:28:25,000
Kincaid comes in the game, teams
know they're probably throwing 

1452
01:28:25,000 --> 01:28:27,800
to this guy, right? 
It's it's obvious. 

1453
01:28:28,080 --> 01:28:31,640
But when you get a, a tight end 
like Jake Ferguson, for example,

1454
01:28:31,840 --> 01:28:34,960
who is a pretty decent blocker, 
he's on the field a lot. 

1455
01:28:35,240 --> 01:28:38,760
He has an extremely high play 
action participation rate, which

1456
01:28:38,760 --> 01:28:41,200
is a metric that Karen coined 
paper. 

1457
01:28:41,640 --> 01:28:45,400
And that is how you really 
manufacture touchdowns at the 

1458
01:28:45,400 --> 01:28:48,600
tight end position. 
Is this play action predation 

1459
01:28:48,600 --> 01:28:50,320
rate? 
You basically want a guy who's 

1460
01:28:50,320 --> 01:28:52,880
going to be out there when the 
team is running all of their 

1461
01:28:52,880 --> 01:28:56,920
play action plays because tight 
ends can get a disproportionate 

1462
01:28:57,320 --> 01:28:58,760
touchdowns coming from those 
plays. 

1463
01:28:58,760 --> 01:29:01,600
When you're in close on the goal
line and you run that play 

1464
01:29:01,600 --> 01:29:05,720
action, all of a sudden the 
tight end has a chance for a. 

1465
01:29:06,200 --> 01:29:07,760
High value, it's a it's a line 
back. 

1466
01:29:07,760 --> 01:29:09,880
If they're covered by a 
linebacker, they have a bigger 

1467
01:29:09,880 --> 01:29:13,440
run fit responsibility than than
a defensive back, so they have 

1468
01:29:13,440 --> 01:29:15,320
to honor that play action a lot 
more. 

1469
01:29:17,240 --> 01:29:20,200
So overall, that's pretty 
concerning for Dalton Kincaid. 

1470
01:29:20,640 --> 01:29:24,200
But the good news for Dalton 
Kincaid is almost every other 

1471
01:29:24,200 --> 01:29:27,800
tight end sucks out loud. 
So it doesn't matter that he's 

1472
01:29:27,800 --> 01:29:32,480
failing on his thesis as well. 
He's still I, I, I. 

1473
01:29:33,240 --> 01:29:35,600
Still prefer Dalton Kincaid to 
American countries right now. 

1474
01:29:36,080 --> 01:29:40,080
Yeah, like going away and, and, 
and you prefer him to Kyle 

1475
01:29:40,080 --> 01:29:42,720
Pitts. 
And like, I definitely George 

1476
01:29:42,720 --> 01:29:46,640
Kittle to Dalton Kincaid. 
But like in, in hindsight, like 

1477
01:29:46,640 --> 01:29:49,200
if I was allowed to trade all my
Kyle pitchers for Dalton 

1478
01:29:49,200 --> 01:29:50,600
Kincaid, I'd do it at a 
heartbeat. 

1479
01:29:50,720 --> 01:29:54,640
You know, like I, I'm, I'm very 
glad that I kind of split 

1480
01:29:54,640 --> 01:29:56,760
exposure evenly between those 
guys. 

1481
01:29:58,080 --> 01:30:01,680
But man, yeah, the, the tight 
end position as a whole is just 

1482
01:30:01,680 --> 01:30:06,360
really ugly. 
The only other guy that I really

1483
01:30:06,360 --> 01:30:09,720
wanted to talk about it, tight 
end, is actually on the next 

1484
01:30:09,720 --> 01:30:13,360
chart. 
Well, I, I, I, I do want to 

1485
01:30:13,360 --> 01:30:19,360
mention, so Co, Co commit last 
week up to 77% at route share. 

1486
01:30:20,080 --> 01:30:24,600
And, and so he, he, he's going 
to, he's going to move up into, 

1487
01:30:24,680 --> 01:30:27,720
into kind of this section of the
chart. 

1488
01:30:28,440 --> 01:30:31,640
And so the, the, the silliness 
with Gerald Everett. 

1489
01:30:31,680 --> 01:30:33,600
I, I think, I think that's done 
now. 

1490
01:30:34,320 --> 01:30:38,680
Yeah, the only problem is that 
Shane Waldron refuses to call 

1491
01:30:38,680 --> 01:30:41,760
pass plays. 
Now the Bears had, I believe it 

1492
01:30:41,760 --> 01:30:43,880
was a league low pass attempts 
this last week. 

1493
01:30:43,880 --> 01:30:46,320
So that's that's great. 
You love to see that. 

1494
01:30:46,360 --> 01:30:49,040
You know, you spent the one O 1 
on a generational quarterback 

1495
01:30:49,040 --> 01:30:52,800
talent who flashed that he could
be really good, you know, in in 

1496
01:30:52,800 --> 01:30:55,240
the previous week. 
And then you go out and you 

1497
01:30:55,240 --> 01:30:58,360
barely throw it all and you 
almost lose a game that you 

1498
01:30:58,840 --> 01:31:00,200
should have been winning 
handily. 

1499
01:31:01,240 --> 01:31:04,840
But yeah, who who knows? 
So the problem with all the 

1500
01:31:04,840 --> 01:31:07,840
Bears pass catchers if you're 
having to choose when to start 

1501
01:31:07,840 --> 01:31:12,040
them is that you're relying on 
Shane Waldron to let them pass 

1502
01:31:12,040 --> 01:31:14,640
and do do intelligent things. 
And then even when they are 

1503
01:31:14,640 --> 01:31:17,440
passing, the scheme is so dog 
shit that they're having it 

1504
01:31:17,440 --> 01:31:19,000
over. 
It just, it's required 

1505
01:31:19,160 --> 01:31:23,520
tremendous individual talent 
from from these players to over.

1506
01:31:23,560 --> 01:31:27,000
If you if you get a week, if you
get a week though, and like we 

1507
01:31:27,000 --> 01:31:29,760
had and I think it was week 
three, yeah, where you got the 

1508
01:31:29,760 --> 01:31:34,360
50 drop back week, then that's 
how you get the Co comet smash. 

1509
01:31:34,520 --> 01:31:37,640
Right. 
And he's live for that now in a 

1510
01:31:37,640 --> 01:31:42,440
way that he wasn't before. 
Yes, one, 100%, yeah, I'm not 

1511
01:31:42,440 --> 01:31:45,640
not trying to bury Comet. 
I'm more so just wanting to 

1512
01:31:45,640 --> 01:31:47,080
throw a little cold water on the
tank. 

1513
01:31:47,640 --> 01:31:51,240
Yeah, that the Bears are just it
makes it really difficult to 

1514
01:31:51,240 --> 01:31:53,640
know when to start the guy. 
So like in any kind of random 

1515
01:31:53,840 --> 01:31:56,960
league, I'm just like throwing 
out my hands having to start any

1516
01:31:56,960 --> 01:31:59,320
bears. 
It's, it's really tough because 

1517
01:31:59,680 --> 01:32:03,000
here's the difference in a 
managed league, I'm really, I 

1518
01:32:03,160 --> 01:32:05,800
really, really care about like 
the floor and the median 

1519
01:32:05,800 --> 01:32:09,280
outcome, right? 
And, and so where the Bears can 

1520
01:32:09,280 --> 01:32:12,960
let the bottom totally drop out 
on me, where #1 they could just 

1521
01:32:12,960 --> 01:32:17,560
have 22 pass attempts in a game.
And #2 even if they do have 50 

1522
01:32:17,560 --> 01:32:20,520
pass attempts, there's a chance 
the scheme was just so pissed 

1523
01:32:20,520 --> 01:32:22,960
poor that I actually still don't
get home. 

1524
01:32:22,960 --> 01:32:24,880
Now we saw it get home in week 
3. 

1525
01:32:25,080 --> 01:32:28,000
But I I don't think it's a 
stretch to say that it's such a 

1526
01:32:28,000 --> 01:32:31,320
poorly designed offense that you
could have 50 attempts and not 

1527
01:32:31,320 --> 01:32:33,840
get home. 
And so that's really painful for

1528
01:32:33,840 --> 01:32:37,760
a managed league in AGPP where 
it's like, whatever, I'm losing 

1529
01:32:37,960 --> 01:32:42,120
this money anyway when I enter 
AGPP and then when I get the 

1530
01:32:42,120 --> 01:32:46,520
hit, I win all the money. 
I think the Bears will probably 

1531
01:32:46,520 --> 01:32:50,400
consistently be be relatively 
low owned as a team to stack. 

1532
01:32:50,920 --> 01:32:52,840
Right. 
So like Dalton Kincaid, I'm just

1533
01:32:52,840 --> 01:32:56,520
looking at an underdog. 
So Dalton Kincaid tight end to 

1534
01:32:56,560 --> 01:33:03,960
21.2 ADP and then you have cold 
commit at 35 tight end 7. 

1535
01:33:05,040 --> 01:33:11,440
Like I'm picking on Dalton 
Kincaid there, but that can 

1536
01:33:11,440 --> 01:33:18,880
certainly hit in a way that you 
want it to and, and you can you,

1537
01:33:19,200 --> 01:33:20,720
you, you can certainly win with 
that. 

1538
01:33:20,960 --> 01:33:23,520
The the ceiling is in a single 
week. 

1539
01:33:23,640 --> 01:33:25,840
Don't you think the ceiling for 
coal combat is higher than 

1540
01:33:25,840 --> 01:33:27,880
Dalton Kincaid? 
Oh, 100%? 

1541
01:33:27,880 --> 01:33:32,160
Yeah, 100%. 
So so depressing man. 

1542
01:33:32,240 --> 01:33:35,080
Oh my God, I just. 
Well I actually have decent coal

1543
01:33:35,080 --> 01:33:37,520
combat bags so I'm not depressed
by that at all. 

1544
01:33:38,080 --> 01:33:41,640
No, no, I mean I, I do as well. 
It's just depressing that like, 

1545
01:33:42,920 --> 01:33:45,600
he could be so good. 
Like I'm, I'm depressed that 

1546
01:33:45,600 --> 01:33:48,240
Shane Waldron has a job. 
That's what I'm depressed about.

1547
01:33:48,800 --> 01:33:52,560
It is certainly disappointing. 
I'm pretty sure a 12 year old 

1548
01:33:52,560 --> 01:33:55,520
with a Madden, you know, a 12 
year old who's reasonably 

1549
01:33:55,520 --> 01:33:58,560
experienced at Madden with an 
Xbox controller probably 

1550
01:33:59,080 --> 01:34:02,960
outcalled Shane Waldron. 
Right, right. 

1551
01:34:04,000 --> 01:34:06,760
So you, you had mentioned that 
there was a tight end on the on 

1552
01:34:06,760 --> 01:34:08,760
the backup chart here, I think 
there was. 

1553
01:34:08,800 --> 01:34:11,160
Was it Eric all? 
It is Eric all. 

1554
01:34:11,600 --> 01:34:16,920
So this is the first week where 
we saw Gesicki get, you know, 

1555
01:34:17,160 --> 01:34:20,680
out targeted by him. 
It was like closer to oh, 

1556
01:34:20,680 --> 01:34:22,720
Gesicki gets some and Eric all 
gets some. 

1557
01:34:23,120 --> 01:34:25,200
This week. 
Eric all out targets him. 

1558
01:34:25,560 --> 01:34:29,400
Now, to be to be fair to 
Gesicki, if you watched every 

1559
01:34:29,400 --> 01:34:34,040
snap of this game, there was a 
play, they're on the goal line, 

1560
01:34:34,400 --> 01:34:39,200
they have Jamar chase and Burrow
just only has eyes for chase on 

1561
01:34:39,200 --> 01:34:41,720
this play. 
And it's a route that that takes

1562
01:34:41,720 --> 01:34:45,960
like a little bit of time to I, 
I honestly, I don't, you know, 

1563
01:34:46,600 --> 01:34:48,720
I, I'm not a not a ball mower to
this level. 

1564
01:34:48,720 --> 01:34:52,200
But I would think from watching 
this play that it's the kind of 

1565
01:34:52,200 --> 01:34:55,360
thing where you probably could 
have made a read prior to 

1566
01:34:55,360 --> 01:34:58,360
locking on the chase, because 
the Kasiki route is just like a 

1567
01:34:58,360 --> 01:35:01,080
quickslant quickslant. 
And he beat his man. 

1568
01:35:01,080 --> 01:35:03,600
He's wide open in the end zone. 
It's just an easy pitch and 

1569
01:35:03,600 --> 01:35:06,560
catch. 
Like it's a touchdown. 95% of 

1570
01:35:06,560 --> 01:35:08,800
the time Burrow throws it. 
You know, the other 5% of the 

1571
01:35:08,800 --> 01:35:10,600
time it's because Kasiki drops 
it, right? 

1572
01:35:12,280 --> 01:35:14,120
But he doesn't, he doesn't see 
it at all. 

1573
01:35:14,120 --> 01:35:16,360
And it's it's on the same side 
of the field as Chase. 

1574
01:35:16,360 --> 01:35:19,840
It was really baffling to me how
it got missed, but I would just 

1575
01:35:19,840 --> 01:35:21,680
guess he's just locked onto 
chase. 

1576
01:35:21,680 --> 01:35:25,560
But to my end, I I would think 
that's the kind of thing where 

1577
01:35:25,760 --> 01:35:28,040
you're you're already looking at
that side of the field. 

1578
01:35:28,320 --> 01:35:31,360
Look at the quick slant and see 
if that's there and take the 

1579
01:35:31,360 --> 01:35:33,440
free touchdown on the time zone.
It is. 

1580
01:35:33,840 --> 01:35:37,400
But then he he holds onto the 
ball, you know, throws it to 

1581
01:35:37,400 --> 01:35:39,720
chase. 
Right, it sounds, it sounds like

1582
01:35:39,720 --> 01:35:42,200
you would have won some money if
at Kasiki had a. 

1583
01:35:42,200 --> 01:35:44,520
Copy No, no, no. 
I didn't even have Kasiki. 

1584
01:35:44,760 --> 01:35:51,560
I'm, I'm just, I'm just teasing.
I I do think if you're looking 

1585
01:35:51,560 --> 01:35:55,440
at Kasiki's like overall, so 
like over the first four weeks, 

1586
01:35:55,680 --> 01:36:00,600
he's at 51% route share, which I
guess in this new tight end 

1587
01:36:00,600 --> 01:36:04,560
landscape, maybe plays it when 
you combine it with a 25% 

1588
01:36:04,560 --> 01:36:10,800
targets per out run 7.6 A dot. 
And it's, it's, it's not great, 

1589
01:36:11,400 --> 01:36:15,840
but it's probably like it's 
probably startable in some in 

1590
01:36:15,840 --> 01:36:19,880
desperation situations. 
And the thing, the thing that I 

1591
01:36:19,880 --> 01:36:23,880
have a lot of hesitations about 
with Eric all is so you do have 

1592
01:36:23,880 --> 01:36:27,520
you have this incredible targets
per out run of 40%. 

1593
01:36:28,000 --> 01:36:34,120
However, it's on AM so that's 
40% last week and I'll use the 

1594
01:36:34,120 --> 01:36:36,640
full season and the last week 
doesn't change this. 

1595
01:36:37,160 --> 01:36:43,120
It's on 30 a 30% route rate. 
And then the A dot is like 2.2. 

1596
01:36:43,920 --> 01:36:49,320
Like it's just like when he's on
the field, they seem to like 

1597
01:36:49,320 --> 01:36:52,960
doing load A dot throws to Eric 
all but he's not on the field 

1598
01:36:52,960 --> 01:36:56,640
that much. 
So like to me, like it's it's 

1599
01:36:56,640 --> 01:36:59,440
incredible for him that he's 
like there's a late rookie 

1600
01:36:59,440 --> 01:37:01,720
coming off the ACL terror that 
he's doing this. 

1601
01:37:01,720 --> 01:37:05,400
It's that's incredible. 
But the targets that you're 

1602
01:37:05,400 --> 01:37:07,520
getting here don't seem that 
valuable. 

1603
01:37:07,600 --> 01:37:11,080
Like you really you need to add 
a new, a completely new element 

1604
01:37:11,080 --> 01:37:14,440
to that role for Eric all to be 
playable to me. 

1605
01:37:15,000 --> 01:37:17,920
Yeah, that's that's, I agree 
with that analysis. 

1606
01:37:17,920 --> 01:37:21,560
And honestly, I would think that
for both of these guys, as we 

1607
01:37:21,560 --> 01:37:25,880
have T Higgins, you know more 
and more back off of his injury,

1608
01:37:25,880 --> 01:37:26,400
right? 
Right. 

1609
01:37:26,640 --> 01:37:32,040
And and then you see 6% target 
run for Kasiki last week, maybe 

1610
01:37:32,600 --> 01:37:35,800
the the two receivers being full
go had a lot to do with that. 

1611
01:37:36,080 --> 01:37:37,880
Yeah. 
And I think with Chase Brown 

1612
01:37:38,120 --> 01:37:41,160
emerging more, I think the Chase
Brown breakout takes away some 

1613
01:37:41,160 --> 01:37:43,600
there as well. 
So I think both of these tight 

1614
01:37:43,600 --> 01:37:47,840
ends become pretty much entirely
uninteresting for fantasy except

1615
01:37:47,840 --> 01:37:50,240
on really short slate and 
showdown type stuff. 

1616
01:37:50,680 --> 01:37:54,000
But like Eric all if he is a 
really low priced guy on a 

1617
01:37:54,000 --> 01:37:57,560
Bengal showdown slate in the 
future, probably an elite play 

1618
01:37:58,520 --> 01:38:02,160
and he's a he's a good blocker. 
If you watch the game, the 

1619
01:38:02,640 --> 01:38:07,400
announcers could not stop raving
about what a massive hole Eric 

1620
01:38:07,400 --> 01:38:10,960
all opened up on a running play.
They're like he just Eric all 

1621
01:38:11,160 --> 01:38:14,600
absolutely blew the hole wide 
open this play. 

1622
01:38:14,920 --> 01:38:17,240
So, you know, maybe maybe you 
get I'm. 

1623
01:38:17,280 --> 01:38:19,640
Really happy. 
I'm really happy that he gave 

1624
01:38:19,720 --> 01:38:20,480
that. 
Great block. 

1625
01:38:20,840 --> 01:38:24,320
Yeah, I mean, maybe you get Eric
all as one of these high paper 

1626
01:38:24,400 --> 01:38:26,480
tight ends, you know, high play 
action participation. 

1627
01:38:26,480 --> 01:38:31,320
Yeah, as the season goes on so 
he can scam some, be useful and 

1628
01:38:31,320 --> 01:38:34,760
short slate stuff. 
All right, that's enough of this

1629
01:38:34,880 --> 01:38:37,400
putrid fantasy position. 
Let's get to wide receiver. 

1630
01:38:38,120 --> 01:38:41,440
So we've got wide receiver 
opportunity versus fantasy 

1631
01:38:41,440 --> 01:38:43,080
points. 
So we've got weighted targets 

1632
01:38:43,080 --> 01:38:48,120
per at run, which is and targets
per at run, but it weighs down 

1633
01:38:48,120 --> 01:38:52,480
the field targets more heavily 
than than sure, A dot stuff. 

1634
01:38:53,040 --> 01:38:56,120
And then we plot that against 
fantasy points and the dots are 

1635
01:38:56,120 --> 01:39:01,280
color-coded to to route share 
and and we split this chart open

1636
01:39:01,280 --> 01:39:04,200
the tree. 
These are just the guys between 

1637
01:39:04,200 --> 01:39:08,800
85% and 100% right share. 
Yep. 

1638
01:39:09,640 --> 01:39:11,400
OK. 
So I want to go back to a 

1639
01:39:11,400 --> 01:39:14,440
conversation we had earlier. 
We talked about, you know, do. 

1640
01:39:14,440 --> 01:39:17,600
You remember that? 
We talked about who the wide 

1641
01:39:17,600 --> 01:39:21,080
receiver one was and you were 
firmly Justin Jefferson over 

1642
01:39:21,080 --> 01:39:24,520
everyone. 
So there there's five guys that 

1643
01:39:24,520 --> 01:39:27,480
I think can make a case to be 
the wide receiver one. 

1644
01:39:27,960 --> 01:39:30,560
It's Justin Jefferson, who I 
think is the odds on favorite 

1645
01:39:30,560 --> 01:39:33,720
right now. 
It's Nick Collins, it's Malik 

1646
01:39:33,720 --> 01:39:37,880
Neighbors, it's Jamar Chase 
who's over here at the 40% 

1647
01:39:37,880 --> 01:39:40,360
weighted targets per route run, 
which I I think is going to 

1648
01:39:40,360 --> 01:39:43,560
change as we progress. 
And then it's the guy on the 

1649
01:39:43,560 --> 01:39:47,360
next chart of CD Lamb who's got 
a a slightly lower route to run 

1650
01:39:47,360 --> 01:39:52,120
rate current currently, excuse 
me, just because of some weird 

1651
01:39:52,120 --> 01:39:55,160
game script stuff where the 
Cowboys were either blowing out 

1652
01:39:55,160 --> 01:39:59,400
or being blown out. 
What a what a funny team man. 

1653
01:39:59,400 --> 01:40:02,400
Just kick the shit out of the 
shitty teams and get absolutely 

1654
01:40:02,400 --> 01:40:05,000
embarrassed by even the 
borderline competent teams. 

1655
01:40:05,000 --> 01:40:10,720
What a pathetic organization. 
But anyway, these these wide 

1656
01:40:10,720 --> 01:40:14,440
receivers, this Malik Neighbors,
Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, 

1657
01:40:14,520 --> 01:40:17,440
I mean, looking absolutely 
incredible. 

1658
01:40:18,200 --> 01:40:20,640
The Malik Neighbors spot is 
really interesting to me 

1659
01:40:20,640 --> 01:40:23,560
actually, because he's coming 
off the concussion, but it's a 

1660
01:40:23,560 --> 01:40:27,720
longer week. 
So typically what we've seen in 

1661
01:40:27,720 --> 01:40:31,480
this new concussion protocol era
is you miss a week. 

1662
01:40:31,520 --> 01:40:35,320
If you get concussed, you miss a
week typically, but it's the 

1663
01:40:35,320 --> 01:40:37,600
longer week. 
So he's got 10 days. 

1664
01:40:38,080 --> 01:40:41,960
So and it, I mean, you don't 
know how bad a concussion is. 

1665
01:40:41,960 --> 01:40:44,920
It's, it's one of those injuries
where you truly cannot tell by 

1666
01:40:44,960 --> 01:40:47,800
looking at the hit. 
Like it's very deceptive stuff 

1667
01:40:47,800 --> 01:40:50,440
that looks pretty minor can 
actually be a very serious 

1668
01:40:50,440 --> 01:40:54,880
concussion and vice versa. 
So there's no way to judge how 

1669
01:40:54,880 --> 01:40:57,480
bad the concussion was. 
Didn't look that bad to me. 

1670
01:40:57,480 --> 01:41:01,160
But again, we don't know. 
But if Malik neighbors the the 

1671
01:41:01,160 --> 01:41:04,000
crazy thing is, and and really 
this is the most applicable to 

1672
01:41:04,000 --> 01:41:07,320
like dog bowl and battle Royale 
drafts where he's being drafted 

1673
01:41:07,320 --> 01:41:10,600
right now and you have to decide
is he playing or is he not 

1674
01:41:10,600 --> 01:41:15,640
playing right? 
If he's not playing, then when, 

1675
01:41:15,800 --> 01:41:18,160
because you get the swap on 
underdog. 

1676
01:41:18,400 --> 01:41:21,160
And I'm I'm framing this more 
through dog bowl 'cause that's 

1677
01:41:21,160 --> 01:41:23,240
the majority of what I do. 
I don't play the six person 

1678
01:41:23,240 --> 01:41:24,560
battle Royale drafts on 
underdog. 

1679
01:41:24,560 --> 01:41:29,360
I only do the 12 man for the 
short slate stuff, but in the 12

1680
01:41:29,360 --> 01:41:32,680
man drafts he's probably a 
pretty good pick at the end of 

1681
01:41:32,680 --> 01:41:36,880
the fourth round where you're 
really not sacrificing a ton if 

1682
01:41:36,880 --> 01:41:40,000
you lose him if he's ruled out 
and you have to swap to someone.

1683
01:41:40,480 --> 01:41:43,400
So I think fourth round is 
reasonable ish for him right 

1684
01:41:43,400 --> 01:41:47,480
now, but then you have to build 
in the probability that he plays

1685
01:41:48,360 --> 01:41:51,640
and where he would go if he 
plays and if he plays, he's 

1686
01:41:51,640 --> 01:41:53,800
probably a top five pick this 
week. 

1687
01:41:54,200 --> 01:41:56,920
So it's really interesting. 
I wanted to get your thoughts on

1688
01:41:56,920 --> 01:41:58,320
it. 
Draco, do you think you just 

1689
01:41:58,360 --> 01:42:01,760
Yolo it on Malik neighbors and 
just just start ripping it so 

1690
01:42:01,760 --> 01:42:03,800
you're. 
Saying he's a fourth round pick 

1691
01:42:04,360 --> 01:42:07,880
and in 12 man drafts. 
He doesn't go in the fourth 

1692
01:42:07,880 --> 01:42:10,520
round though right now he go, he
goes earlier than that. 

1693
01:42:10,520 --> 01:42:11,680
So it's it's. 
Hard. 

1694
01:42:11,720 --> 01:42:16,920
You have a third round pick 
like. 2nd or or third OK. 

1695
01:42:17,960 --> 01:42:21,000
And so you're, you're, you're 
having to take them in the first

1696
01:42:21,000 --> 01:42:24,040
36 picks. 
So like, that's where like the 

1697
01:42:24,040 --> 01:42:26,800
players are still really going 
to project really, really well. 

1698
01:42:27,600 --> 01:42:35,720
And, and so if he's out, then if
he's out, then you, you, you 

1699
01:42:35,720 --> 01:42:38,480
light swap. 
But it's somebody who projects 

1700
01:42:38,480 --> 01:42:42,480
much, much worse than the 37th 
best projection. 

1701
01:42:43,160 --> 01:42:46,200
And am I? 
Am I framing that correctly? 

1702
01:42:46,480 --> 01:42:52,200
Yeah, and I would, I guess I 
would say as I think through it 

1703
01:42:52,320 --> 01:42:55,480
out loud here, Yeah, his ADP is 
14.2 right now. 

1704
01:42:55,480 --> 01:42:59,200
So he's he's going high. 
He's, you know, you got to take,

1705
01:42:59,480 --> 01:43:03,560
OK, take Malik neighbors. 
You're passing on Stephon Diggs,

1706
01:43:03,560 --> 01:43:06,280
you're passing on George Kittle,
passing on Kenneth Walker, 

1707
01:43:06,800 --> 01:43:09,480
you're passing on Jayden 
Daniels, Dalton Kincaid, Trey 

1708
01:43:09,480 --> 01:43:12,320
McBride, like. 
Then it's really a risk 

1709
01:43:12,320 --> 01:43:14,880
tolerance thing. 
So when you're talking about the

1710
01:43:14,880 --> 01:43:18,280
dog bowl, the dog bowl is 
literally winners take, all 

1711
01:43:18,280 --> 01:43:23,480
right, yeah, it's top win the 
you win, OK, you win the slate 

1712
01:43:24,200 --> 01:43:31,600
or you kick rocks, right? 
And so it's almost like the top 

1713
01:43:31,600 --> 01:43:34,240
20% of outcomes are the only 
thing that mattered there. 

1714
01:43:35,000 --> 01:43:40,280
And so I think to me that that 
honestly seems fine. 

1715
01:43:40,880 --> 01:43:43,320
And it's more of a risk 
tolerance thing. 

1716
01:43:43,360 --> 01:43:46,600
I see some like sort of analysis
here where the average days 

1717
01:43:46,600 --> 01:43:51,360
missed from a concussion is like
8 days and you got 10 days here.

1718
01:43:52,240 --> 01:44:00,040
And it to me that's like a true 
risk tolerance thing where like 

1719
01:44:00,320 --> 01:44:05,120
you can jam it and then you get 
it in real good or like then 

1720
01:44:05,120 --> 01:44:08,160
you're late swapping and like 
you just dropped it a bunch of 

1721
01:44:08,160 --> 01:44:11,480
dead dog bowl teams like. 
It Yeah. 

1722
01:44:11,800 --> 01:44:15,960
I I think it's acceptable way to
play, just just understand the 

1723
01:44:15,960 --> 01:44:18,760
risk tolerance. 
Yeah, I think as I think through

1724
01:44:18,760 --> 01:44:23,320
it a little bit more, one thing 
that I want to consider is 

1725
01:44:23,440 --> 01:44:27,800
people are, man, I didn't draft 
a ton of dog bowls last year 

1726
01:44:27,800 --> 01:44:30,960
before like projections are out.
I'd, I'd sprinkle a few in just 

1727
01:44:30,960 --> 01:44:33,480
to kind of like get a, get the 
lay of the land. 

1728
01:44:34,080 --> 01:44:37,040
These last two weeks I've been 
drafting more before projections

1729
01:44:37,040 --> 01:44:39,720
have come out because last week 
I, I did it a lot because I had 

1730
01:44:39,720 --> 01:44:42,920
a, a couple decent reads that I,
I wanted to get ahead of the 

1731
01:44:42,920 --> 01:44:45,640
market on. 
And I, I was right on the like 

1732
01:44:45,640 --> 01:44:48,160
with George Kittle. 
He, he screamed up a bunch after

1733
01:44:48,160 --> 01:44:50,080
he got ruled in right. 
Debo Samuel. 

1734
01:44:50,320 --> 01:44:51,720
There are a couple spots like 
that. 

1735
01:44:53,280 --> 01:44:56,960
And so doing them last week kind
of illuminated to me how bad the

1736
01:44:56,960 --> 01:45:01,120
market is without projections. 
Like there's people that don't 

1737
01:45:01,120 --> 01:45:04,480
know what the fuck they're doing
respectfully, and they're just 

1738
01:45:04,480 --> 01:45:09,280
doing stuff that doesn't make 
any sense in any, in any format.

1739
01:45:09,280 --> 01:45:13,880
There's no no justification for 
players being selected where 

1740
01:45:13,880 --> 01:45:16,600
they're going. 
And so I think drafting before 

1741
01:45:16,600 --> 01:45:19,120
projections are out is actually 
pretty good. 

1742
01:45:19,640 --> 01:45:23,600
And so because of that, you end 
up with players going undrafted,

1743
01:45:23,840 --> 01:45:28,200
like Josh Downs, for example, 
goes undrafted sometimes and 

1744
01:45:28,200 --> 01:45:30,920
he's one where if I have to swap
from Malik Neighbors to Josh 

1745
01:45:30,920 --> 01:45:32,880
Downs, of course I'm losing 
projection. 

1746
01:45:33,360 --> 01:45:37,080
But later in the week, Josh 
Downs will be drafted 100% of 

1747
01:45:37,080 --> 01:45:39,120
the time because he's going to 
project pretty good. 

1748
01:45:39,160 --> 01:45:44,400
You know, like other guys that 
like right now go undrafted or 

1749
01:45:44,400 --> 01:45:46,800
go really late, like Romeo 
Dobbs. 

1750
01:45:46,800 --> 01:45:50,880
Like, yeah, he's definitely the 
less sexy version, you know, or 

1751
01:45:50,880 --> 01:45:53,400
less sexy option between him and
Dontavie on Wix. 

1752
01:45:53,720 --> 01:45:56,160
But he shouldn't go undrafted, 
but he does right now. 

1753
01:45:56,160 --> 01:46:00,320
And so it's like getting the 
swap into Romeo Dobbs in the 

1754
01:46:00,320 --> 01:46:02,280
Packers offense where there's no
Christian Watson. 

1755
01:46:02,280 --> 01:46:04,440
And so, you know, you're going 
to have this condensed. 

1756
01:46:04,800 --> 01:46:07,520
It's these three guys now. 
Finally, it's not like going to 

1757
01:46:07,520 --> 01:46:12,160
be this rotational thing against
a really good match up for the 

1758
01:46:12,160 --> 01:46:15,440
Rams, like against the Rams like
OK, yeah, that's a pretty good 

1759
01:46:15,440 --> 01:46:17,400
swap. 
So you have better swap options.

1760
01:46:17,400 --> 01:46:20,320
Earlier in the week, Keenan 
Allen, you know, undrafted 

1761
01:46:20,440 --> 01:46:24,240
against Carolina and we just 
talked about like how the Bears,

1762
01:46:24,240 --> 01:46:26,680
yeah, they're a pain in the ass 
to start in a managed league, 

1763
01:46:26,960 --> 01:46:29,040
but where you like you just 
said, you only care about the 

1764
01:46:29,040 --> 01:46:31,200
ceiling. 
So Keenan Allen against Carolina

1765
01:46:31,200 --> 01:46:35,280
like could be a pretty, pretty 
interesting pot and you can just

1766
01:46:35,280 --> 01:46:38,520
swap for free to that. 
So I think the way to play it is

1767
01:46:38,640 --> 01:46:42,520
if you're willing to be risk on 
you hit the Malik neighbors 

1768
01:46:42,520 --> 01:46:44,320
stuff kind of aggressive right 
now. 

1769
01:46:45,200 --> 01:46:48,800
Maybe not like whole hog into it
because you might get news that 

1770
01:46:48,800 --> 01:46:52,680
he's like doubtful or like 
really questionable in in the 

1771
01:46:52,680 --> 01:46:55,280
middle of the week and then you 
can truly get him for free. 

1772
01:46:56,520 --> 01:47:02,160
But I think just to like stave 
off the outcomes where you know,

1773
01:47:02,160 --> 01:47:04,280
he's he oh, it's very likely he 
plays. 

1774
01:47:04,320 --> 01:47:06,280
He's he's going to clear 
concussion protocol, he's going 

1775
01:47:06,280 --> 01:47:09,920
to play and then his price just 
rockets up even more than it 

1776
01:47:09,920 --> 01:47:10,760
already is. 
Right. 

1777
01:47:10,760 --> 01:47:14,200
Every time he step, he passes a 
new step in the in the in the 

1778
01:47:14,600 --> 01:47:18,200
process and the protocol, he's 
going to go up. 

1779
01:47:18,800 --> 01:47:22,320
Like if he practices on Friday, 
he's just going to go top five. 

1780
01:47:23,000 --> 01:47:26,200
Yeah, yeah. 
Thank you for helping me talk 

1781
01:47:26,200 --> 01:47:28,120
that out. 
I just moved him up a bunch in 

1782
01:47:28,120 --> 01:47:32,520
my room. 
OK. 

1783
01:47:32,640 --> 01:47:35,240
Oh, this was a guy that I think 
is really interesting. 

1784
01:47:35,280 --> 01:47:39,920
But Rashid Shahid, man, he was a
guy during the offseason. 

1785
01:47:39,960 --> 01:47:42,560
We talked about a lot when we 
were doing the leg up rankings 

1786
01:47:42,560 --> 01:47:46,080
that he pops like a guy that 
should be going much higher. 

1787
01:47:46,080 --> 01:47:49,760
He he looks like the real deal, 
but there's just the concern 

1788
01:47:49,760 --> 01:47:51,880
about the role, like is he a bit
player? 

1789
01:47:51,880 --> 01:47:53,520
Is he just this deep ball 
merchant? 

1790
01:47:53,560 --> 01:47:58,360
You know, he's not. 
He does is a fully functional 

1791
01:47:58,360 --> 01:48:02,960
NFL receiver, can run all the 
routes, can win at all depths, 

1792
01:48:03,400 --> 01:48:06,640
can do it all, and is out 
targeting Crystal Labe. 

1793
01:48:07,440 --> 01:48:09,680
You had a 30% targets per run 
last week. 

1794
01:48:10,000 --> 01:48:13,880
Yeah, and that maybe that's 
partially because of the Olave 

1795
01:48:13,880 --> 01:48:18,080
like late week hamstring strain.
If you ask me, it might be a 

1796
01:48:18,680 --> 01:48:20,400
this this is going to be a 
really hot take. 

1797
01:48:20,400 --> 01:48:23,400
And I I almost hate myself for 
giving it because I really like 

1798
01:48:23,400 --> 01:48:25,000
Chris Olave. 
I think he's really good. 

1799
01:48:25,720 --> 01:48:28,680
I think Rashid Shahid and Chris 
Olave are one A1B in this 

1800
01:48:28,680 --> 01:48:36,400
offense. 
And I think they they have like 

1801
01:48:36,400 --> 01:48:41,200
different roles where like it, 
it seems like Shaheed is is more

1802
01:48:41,200 --> 01:48:44,440
often the deep guy, whereas like
when they need to move the 

1803
01:48:44,440 --> 01:48:49,520
chains and they're they're 
trying to Olave, the ball is 

1804
01:48:49,520 --> 01:48:51,640
going to Olave. 
There there was a lot of chain 

1805
01:48:51,640 --> 01:48:54,520
moving stuff here and it's it's 
also this was not the the first 

1806
01:48:54,520 --> 01:48:56,800
week where she he'd got some 
like shorter stuff and 

1807
01:48:56,800 --> 01:48:59,040
intermediate stuff. 
He he got it earlier in the 

1808
01:48:59,040 --> 01:49:01,080
season as well. 
Like I I was noticing when 

1809
01:49:01,080 --> 01:49:03,440
watching the Saints. 
Now granted they they hadn't 

1810
01:49:03,440 --> 01:49:07,960
passed a ton, but like it was, 
it was clear that he was not 

1811
01:49:08,080 --> 01:49:10,680
only exclusively a deep ball 
merchant. 

1812
01:49:11,720 --> 01:49:17,480
So, yeah, so he got he got 11 
targets this week and versus 5, 

1813
01:49:17,480 --> 01:49:20,200
four and five. 
And now that that's a big 

1814
01:49:20,200 --> 01:49:25,520
increase in Dropbox. 
And but like you're saying, I 

1815
01:49:25,520 --> 01:49:32,920
think, are you saying that 
Shahid is like a legitimate 

1816
01:49:32,920 --> 01:49:36,400
target at receiver or like I 
don't think you're trying to 

1817
01:49:36,400 --> 01:49:39,080
bury Olave, that that's where 
I'm having a negative reaction 

1818
01:49:39,080 --> 01:49:42,840
to like the one A1B that's like,
no, I think I think Olave is 

1819
01:49:42,840 --> 01:49:46,280
better. 
However, Shaheed is clearly very

1820
01:49:46,280 --> 01:49:51,600
important to the offense where 
like, so he's like week 1 he was

1821
01:49:51,600 --> 01:49:55,120
73%, right, Right. 
And then since then, if you 

1822
01:49:55,120 --> 01:49:58,680
average the two weeks, it's 93%.
Yeah. 

1823
01:49:58,680 --> 01:50:01,680
If you average the targets for a
run over the last three weeks, 

1824
01:50:01,680 --> 01:50:06,600
it's 25%. 
So like those are you take those

1825
01:50:06,600 --> 01:50:11,960
numbers and for like I don't 
know, top three rounds. 

1826
01:50:12,320 --> 01:50:15,160
Yeah, I'm just saying Rashid 
Shahid probably like in 

1827
01:50:15,160 --> 01:50:17,840
resurrection and I've done 0 
resurrection, so I don't know 

1828
01:50:17,840 --> 01:50:20,440
where he's going. 
Probably should go in the top 

1829
01:50:20,440 --> 01:50:24,240
five rounds. 
Right, right. 

1830
01:50:24,600 --> 01:50:26,680
As things stand, that he 
certainly should. 

1831
01:50:27,360 --> 01:50:31,360
And I mean, I, I see more reason
for this to continue than for 

1832
01:50:31,360 --> 01:50:34,320
the trend to break, because this
is what we are looking at all 

1833
01:50:34,320 --> 01:50:36,840
offseason of like, this guy 
seems really good. 

1834
01:50:36,880 --> 01:50:39,040
Like maybe he's just really 
good. 

1835
01:50:39,360 --> 01:50:43,640
And then games were like, huh, 
this guy seems really good. 

1836
01:50:43,680 --> 01:50:46,720
And he's doing more than just 
the bit roll that we'd seen him 

1837
01:50:46,720 --> 01:50:50,280
pigeonholed in the past by a 
shitty, incompetent offensive 

1838
01:50:50,280 --> 01:50:52,480
coordinator. 
So maybe he's just good now that

1839
01:50:52,480 --> 01:50:55,080
he has a competent offensive 
coordinator. 

1840
01:50:55,240 --> 01:50:57,120
Now granted, his offensive 
coordinator is still a little 

1841
01:50:57,120 --> 01:50:58,880
bit boomer. 
They're just running the ball 

1842
01:50:58,880 --> 01:51:03,200
too much, but he's designing a 
functional offense. 

1843
01:51:03,240 --> 01:51:05,840
Granted, they run too much, but 
they're at least using motion 

1844
01:51:05,840 --> 01:51:09,200
and play action like someone who
knows how the game is played. 

1845
01:51:09,200 --> 01:51:14,800
So anyway, nothing negative 
about Chris Olave, just very 

1846
01:51:14,800 --> 01:51:18,560
bullish about Rashid Shaheed. 
And man, I wish this offense 

1847
01:51:18,600 --> 01:51:19,760
threw more. 
I wish that they. 

1848
01:51:19,840 --> 01:51:26,000
Threw more right, Right. 
OK. 

1849
01:51:26,080 --> 01:51:28,040
Can I hit you with a really 
gross one? 

1850
01:51:28,680 --> 01:51:31,640
OK. 
What if I told you that I wanna 

1851
01:51:31,640 --> 01:51:34,880
play Courtland Sutton this week 
and I think it's a good positive

1852
01:51:34,880 --> 01:51:39,000
regression spot for him? 
Are you saying are you 

1853
01:51:39,000 --> 01:51:43,840
suggesting that some man, some 
what you call some vomit stacks 

1854
01:51:43,840 --> 01:51:45,920
for bone Knicks and week 5 is a 
good idea? 

1855
01:51:46,320 --> 01:51:50,960
I think that we might be able to
go back and play the tape from 

1856
01:51:50,960 --> 01:51:53,080
was it week one that I said. 
It was week one. 

1857
01:51:53,240 --> 01:51:55,880
It was week 1. 
I think we were both talking 

1858
01:51:55,880 --> 01:51:58,280
about it and you, you, you 
pointed at week five. 

1859
01:51:58,280 --> 01:51:59,600
I was like, oh, that might be 
the week. 

1860
01:51:59,600 --> 01:52:03,640
You you can play bone Knicks. 
Because I need, I need to look 

1861
01:52:03,640 --> 01:52:11,240
this up. 2023 NFL schedule Week 
5 because I I swear to God I I'm

1862
01:52:11,240 --> 01:52:16,320
pretty sure this was the same I 
I think week 5 was also the week

1863
01:52:16,400 --> 01:52:18,800
that the Texans know. 
Oh. 

1864
01:52:18,800 --> 01:52:21,080
When you when you called that, 
when you, when you called the 

1865
01:52:21,120 --> 01:52:23,880
the the CJ Stroud that's. 
What you Yeah, when when you to 

1866
01:52:23,880 --> 01:52:27,520
Cal went with the Texans triple 
stack to go absolutely 

1867
01:52:27,520 --> 01:52:32,680
thermonuclear and ship the 
Millie Yeah no, it was not week 

1868
01:52:32,680 --> 01:52:34,880
five last year. 
Maybe, maybe it was week 4. 

1869
01:52:34,880 --> 01:52:37,800
Anyway, yeah, I. 
I'm. 

1870
01:52:38,720 --> 01:52:39,680
My God, I don't know if I want 
to. 

1871
01:52:39,840 --> 01:52:43,080
I mean, that's such a such a 
hard standard to live up to, you

1872
01:52:43,080 --> 01:52:46,000
know, because I, I just 
absolutely smashed it so hard 

1873
01:52:46,000 --> 01:52:50,680
last year. 
But I, I guess, you know, it's, 

1874
01:52:51,240 --> 01:52:53,320
yeah, it was, it was week four 
last year. 

1875
01:52:53,320 --> 01:52:58,560
So week five this year Broncos 
vomit stacks or the 2023 week 4 

1876
01:52:59,080 --> 01:53:02,760
Texans vomit stacks. 
The The, the other thing though,

1877
01:53:02,760 --> 01:53:06,840
is I don't think that it's going
to be way different than the way

1878
01:53:06,840 --> 01:53:09,760
that CJ Stroud got there was 
like everyone eats. 

1879
01:53:10,240 --> 01:53:13,880
I think it's hyper concentrated 
to Cortland Sutton, which is why

1880
01:53:13,880 --> 01:53:16,360
I like it. 
And I think you have the rushing

1881
01:53:16,360 --> 01:53:21,240
upside of Bonex and you're 
against a Raiders team where, 

1882
01:53:21,480 --> 01:53:24,960
man, you want to talk about a 
team where the vibes have swung 

1883
01:53:25,120 --> 01:53:27,640
wildly in the first four weeks 
of the season? 

1884
01:53:27,640 --> 01:53:31,600
Like the vibes went from bad to 
good. 

1885
01:53:31,640 --> 01:53:34,080
Like remember when the Raiders 
upset the Ravens how good the 

1886
01:53:34,080 --> 01:53:36,640
vibes were and then they're. 
Incredible. 

1887
01:53:36,880 --> 01:53:40,680
The vibes are like bottom of the
basement right now. 

1888
01:53:40,680 --> 01:53:43,840
The vibes seem bad for the 
Raiders and they're going 

1889
01:53:43,840 --> 01:53:46,880
against the Broncos, who might 
be feeling their oats a little 

1890
01:53:46,880 --> 01:53:49,880
bit after beating The Jets. 
I mean, maybe that. 

1891
01:53:49,880 --> 01:53:52,320
Maybe this is a spot, man. 
Maybe this is the bow next to 

1892
01:53:52,320 --> 01:53:56,160
Cortland Sutton. 
Skinny Stack for all the money. 

1893
01:53:58,400 --> 01:54:01,080
Yeah, I'm. 
I mean it, it certainly, Yeah, 

1894
01:54:01,080 --> 01:54:04,640
it certainly makes sense. 
All right. 

1895
01:54:04,640 --> 01:54:07,960
Would you do that in a dog bowl?
What if I told you I've already 

1896
01:54:07,960 --> 01:54:12,800
done it? 
OK, OK, there's the answer. 

1897
01:54:13,160 --> 01:54:16,680
And and hang on, what if I told 
you I've been sniped on it also?

1898
01:54:18,920 --> 01:54:20,560
That's funny. 
Yeah, Nez. 

1899
01:54:20,560 --> 01:54:22,120
Do you think it would be 
undrafted? 

1900
01:54:22,160 --> 01:54:26,600
Oh yeah, Nez is also out there. 
So Nez, if you're watching this,

1901
01:54:26,600 --> 01:54:30,800
I see you're sick ass. 
You're just as demented as I am 

1902
01:54:30,880 --> 01:54:32,600
playing Courtland Sutton in 
Bonex. 

1903
01:54:33,560 --> 01:54:35,920
Seek help, my friend. 
I'll, I'll see you in therapy 

1904
01:54:37,400 --> 01:54:38,680
because I'm going to be there 
with you. 

1905
01:54:38,880 --> 01:54:42,920
That's the joke. 
All right, one, one other guy 

1906
01:54:42,960 --> 01:54:46,400
that I wanted to get to on this 
chart was Chris Godwin. 

1907
01:54:48,680 --> 01:54:52,360
I mean, I heard people saying 
like, oh, the, the Chris Godwin,

1908
01:54:52,360 --> 01:54:54,720
you know, he's running so hot on
touchdowns. 

1909
01:54:54,720 --> 01:54:57,360
And he was, he had at least one 
touchdown through the first 

1910
01:54:57,360 --> 01:54:59,600
three weeks of the season. 
Finally goes without a 

1911
01:54:59,600 --> 01:55:04,320
touchdown, but my God, is his 
role not the most consistent 

1912
01:55:04,320 --> 01:55:07,640
thing in the league here. 
Here's his target lines for 

1913
01:55:07,760 --> 01:55:15,160
through the 1st 4 weeks 8899. 
Like I, I mean, do we just 

1914
01:55:15,160 --> 01:55:17,160
expect this going forward? 
Chris Godwin. 

1915
01:55:17,320 --> 01:55:20,160
It kind of feels like the old 
Chris Godwin role that we had, 

1916
01:55:20,680 --> 01:55:22,600
right season. 
Right. 

1917
01:55:22,680 --> 01:55:25,760
I think that that just speaks to
a very kind of concentrated 

1918
01:55:26,360 --> 01:55:29,400
offense between him and Evans, 
which which makes sense. 

1919
01:55:33,360 --> 01:55:38,680
All right, that was all Chris 
Cobham moving on to a slightly 

1920
01:55:38,680 --> 01:55:42,400
less fun guy. 
Are you worried about Garrett 

1921
01:55:42,400 --> 01:55:46,480
Wilson? 
And, you know, did you hear the 

1922
01:55:46,480 --> 01:55:49,840
press conference comment he made
this this week or recently? 

1923
01:55:50,240 --> 01:55:53,880
He said, oh, when I watch other 
teams, they like mix it up a 

1924
01:55:53,880 --> 01:55:56,160
bit. 
It'd be nice if we could do that

1925
01:55:56,160 --> 01:55:58,000
too. 
Oh no. 

1926
01:55:58,240 --> 01:56:01,520
Oh no. 
Oh, the vibes are starting to be

1927
01:56:01,520 --> 01:56:03,080
bad. 
Oh no. 

1928
01:56:04,040 --> 01:56:07,400
So that that's a pretty bad 
vibes comment. 

1929
01:56:08,160 --> 01:56:16,760
And yeah, like maybe that's 
something where where we watch 

1930
01:56:16,760 --> 01:56:21,760
call it we we load up the the 
right tree for Garrett Wilson 

1931
01:56:21,760 --> 01:56:23,240
and maybe it that's super gross.
Oh. 

1932
01:56:24,720 --> 01:56:30,040
God, man, I'm, I'm starting to 
be worried the, the stupid Alan 

1933
01:56:30,040 --> 01:56:32,760
Lazard stuff just does not seem 
to be stopping. 

1934
01:56:32,760 --> 01:56:37,160
Like, I, I don't know, I, I've 
heard people say like, oh, 

1935
01:56:37,160 --> 01:56:39,560
there's no way they can keep 
doing the Alan Lazard thing all 

1936
01:56:39,560 --> 01:56:41,440
season. 
I'm worried they might just do 

1937
01:56:41,440 --> 01:56:42,920
the Alan Lazard thing all 
season. 

1938
01:56:46,520 --> 01:56:52,440
Yeah. 
And yeah, so I'm looking at the 

1939
01:56:52,840 --> 01:56:56,600
the the route, the route 
treating it's, it's, it's 

1940
01:56:56,600 --> 01:57:00,600
certainly not as bad as as what 
you call it. 

1941
01:57:00,840 --> 01:57:03,000
The Shane. 
The Shane Waldron abomination 

1942
01:57:03,000 --> 01:57:06,320
that I showed you. 
Yeah, so week week 1, it 

1943
01:57:06,320 --> 01:57:09,720
actually looks pretty good, like
it's pretty varied. 

1944
01:57:10,440 --> 01:57:19,240
But then by by week 4, this this
this This site is hard to use. 

1945
01:57:21,160 --> 01:57:24,560
Or maybe I'm just a boomer. 
By week, is it week tree? 

1946
01:57:26,440 --> 01:57:29,880
Oh, they only pick one If you 
don't pay for it, they only pick

1947
01:57:29,880 --> 01:57:33,080
one one player a week on each 
team. 

1948
01:57:33,720 --> 01:57:42,120
That's why it's hard to see. 
But but by by by week two, it's 

1949
01:57:42,120 --> 01:57:45,080
just like a couple of cents and 
go rounds. 

1950
01:57:47,360 --> 01:57:52,960
Yeah, I'm man, I was like, I 
wasn't the president of the I'm 

1951
01:57:52,960 --> 01:57:55,480
not worried about Garrett Wilson
fan club, but I was a card 

1952
01:57:55,480 --> 01:58:00,720
carrying member and I know it. 
You know what it really is? 

1953
01:58:00,720 --> 01:58:03,840
It's I, I'm letting this this 
throughout the tape game get to 

1954
01:58:03,840 --> 01:58:08,200
me more than I probably should. 
I'm I'm having trouble. 

1955
01:58:08,320 --> 01:58:10,840
Squaring it How many targets a 
game do you think Garrett Wilson

1956
01:58:10,840 --> 01:58:14,840
is getting? 
I think it's like a little north

1957
01:58:14,840 --> 01:58:16,840
of set, it's like 7 and change, 
right? 

1958
01:58:17,240 --> 01:58:21,920
8 1/2. 8 1/2 OK. 
So we just talked about the 

1959
01:58:21,920 --> 01:58:27,920
Chris Godwin target profile 
where it's like 999, so 8 1/2, 

1960
01:58:27,920 --> 01:58:32,000
unlike A-Team where I'm pretty 
sure they're like pass rate over

1961
01:58:32,000 --> 01:58:38,320
expected hasn't been like their 
pass rate has not been high and 

1962
01:58:39,680 --> 01:58:44,680
they're like so their their pass
rate over expected. 

1963
01:58:44,720 --> 01:58:48,320
OK, so it's two percent, 65% 
pass rate. 

1964
01:58:49,360 --> 01:58:53,200
So like 8 1/2 target rate or 
targets per game. 

1965
01:58:54,600 --> 01:59:00,320
I get to me, it's like you want 
to be talking about more than, 

1966
01:59:00,320 --> 01:59:04,560
oh, my first round pick and gets
8 1/2 targets a game. 

1967
01:59:06,160 --> 01:59:09,560
But like I there's, there's 
probably there's probably 

1968
01:59:09,560 --> 01:59:11,320
something there where this can 
still work out. 

1969
01:59:12,320 --> 01:59:13,960
Yeah, no, I I agree with you 
the. 

1970
01:59:14,360 --> 01:59:16,840
Jets need Garth Wilson like 
that. 

1971
01:59:16,840 --> 01:59:19,000
That offense needs Garth Wilson 
to go. 

1972
01:59:19,600 --> 01:59:22,240
So like, it's not going to be 
like, OK, well, this guy made 

1973
01:59:22,240 --> 01:59:24,880
the back comment and so we're 
going to get him out of here. 

1974
01:59:25,200 --> 01:59:27,600
It's like, OK, how do, how do, 
how do we make this guy happy 

1975
01:59:28,000 --> 01:59:30,000
and, and, and make the offense 
go room? 

1976
01:59:31,480 --> 01:59:35,440
Yeah, I, I mean, I, yeah, all 
hope is not lost for me on 

1977
01:59:35,440 --> 01:59:37,840
Garrett Wilson. 
I'm just, I'm starting to get a 

1978
01:59:37,840 --> 01:59:41,480
little worried. 
It it probably the the week for 

1979
01:59:41,480 --> 01:59:45,080
like throw the tape out game is 
probably contributing too much 

1980
01:59:45,080 --> 01:59:49,120
to that worry because it truly 
was an atrocious game. 

1981
01:59:49,720 --> 01:59:55,560
But yeah, I I would I would love
to see something soon to just 

1982
01:59:55,560 --> 02:00:01,000
make me feel a little better. 
But moving on to someone near 

1983
02:00:01,000 --> 02:00:04,360
Garrett Wilson on the chart. 
But I feel like is in a really 

1984
02:00:04,360 --> 02:00:08,920
positive spot. 
You also had a pretty good call 

1985
02:00:08,920 --> 02:00:11,520
on just this offense as a whole.
You you mentioned that the 

1986
02:00:11,520 --> 02:00:14,160
Bengals, you know, and Joe 
Burrow were, were good 

1987
02:00:14,160 --> 02:00:16,080
progression candidates a week 
ago. 

1988
02:00:16,440 --> 02:00:20,040
And of course, that was a good 
spot Here. 

1989
02:00:20,080 --> 02:00:23,800
We get the Ravens, you get T 
Higgins here. 

1990
02:00:24,080 --> 02:00:26,920
He's coming in with pretty good 
weighted targets for route run. 

1991
02:00:26,920 --> 02:00:29,640
He actually has higher weighted 
targets for route run than his 

1992
02:00:29,640 --> 02:00:32,480
teammate Jamar Chase. 
Granted, he's played less games.

1993
02:00:32,480 --> 02:00:34,760
So, you know, small sample 
stuff. 

1994
02:00:34,760 --> 02:00:38,720
I would expect that to 
normalize, but 10 targets last 

1995
02:00:38,720 --> 02:00:43,200
game like I, I. 
And then all the almost 

1996
02:00:43,200 --> 02:00:44,360
touchdowns. 
Yeah. 

1997
02:00:44,800 --> 02:00:47,400
That that felt like they were 
very, very close to being 

1998
02:00:47,400 --> 02:00:51,000
touchdowns. 
And you know what I mean, This 

1999
02:00:51,000 --> 02:00:53,360
is the real analysis that people
TuneIn for. 

2000
02:00:53,560 --> 02:00:56,120
But if you've been paying 
attention at all this season, 

2001
02:00:56,440 --> 02:01:00,200
you've noticed that this is the 
season of Sam Sherman pain. 

2002
02:01:00,200 --> 02:01:04,680
I mean, it's been pain for a lot
of us, but poor Sam had like 

2003
02:01:04,680 --> 02:01:07,280
20%. 
George Kittle who is out. 

2004
02:01:07,760 --> 02:01:10,960
Yeah, Sam's been posting this 
all over Twitter where he's 

2005
02:01:10,960 --> 02:01:14,160
just, he's been getting run over
by the variance bus this year. 

2006
02:01:14,640 --> 02:01:20,360
And there could not be a more 
anti Sam Sherman player than T 

2007
02:01:20,360 --> 02:01:22,880
Higgins. 
So I feel like AT Higgins 

2008
02:01:22,880 --> 02:01:27,480
Eruption would just keep the 
trend rolling for Sam Sherman 

2009
02:01:27,480 --> 02:01:29,360
getting kicked in the teeth by 
variance. 

2010
02:01:29,800 --> 02:01:32,640
And so that's the thing that's 
the most compelling to me is 

2011
02:01:32,640 --> 02:01:35,680
that the universe just have to 
get Sam Sherman so far this 

2012
02:01:35,680 --> 02:01:38,040
season. 
So maybe this is the T Higgins 

2013
02:01:38,040 --> 02:01:40,560
spot. 
The the anti Sam Sherman 

2014
02:01:40,560 --> 02:01:47,000
narrative, but like he, he, he's
been running code on touchdowns.

2015
02:01:48,400 --> 02:01:53,360
So that that feels like that 
feels like something where 

2016
02:01:53,360 --> 02:01:55,520
you're you're you're getting, 
you're getting the underlying 

2017
02:01:55,520 --> 02:01:57,880
usage. 
We think it's a really good spot

2018
02:01:58,600 --> 02:02:04,680
and the team it's a high game 
total and against a pass funnel 

2019
02:02:05,440 --> 02:02:09,880
and then most people they would 
tink to primarily play a true 

2020
02:02:09,880 --> 02:02:14,600
Chase and so you'll get 
definitely cheaper. 

2021
02:02:14,600 --> 02:02:19,360
T Higgins I I have to assume T 
Higgins is like 100% drafted in 

2022
02:02:19,360 --> 02:02:21,880
dog bowl 12 round 12 team draft.
He is. 

2023
02:02:21,880 --> 02:02:25,680
He's 100% drafted, but he goes 
like in the fourth round. 

2024
02:02:25,680 --> 02:02:27,040
I believe I can. 
I can. 

2025
02:02:27,160 --> 02:02:29,920
Check so so like that's 
something where if if it hits 

2026
02:02:30,200 --> 02:02:33,640
the way it can hit with T 
Higgins like that, just like 

2027
02:02:33,640 --> 02:02:35,800
that, that's like that's a got a
half guy. 

2028
02:02:36,080 --> 02:02:38,840
Yeah, he is. 
He's going the the receiver that

2029
02:02:38,840 --> 02:02:41,280
goes right after him is Michael 
Pittman. 

2030
02:02:42,400 --> 02:02:44,760
The receiver they go right 
before him or Terry Mclaurin, 

2031
02:02:44,760 --> 02:02:47,720
Brian Thomas, DJ Moore, 
Dontavion Wix. 

2032
02:02:49,360 --> 02:02:54,560
So definitely, definitely 
interested in T Higgins this 

2033
02:02:54,560 --> 02:02:59,920
week. 
So I think those of you guys who

2034
02:02:59,920 --> 02:03:02,440
wanted to touch on in. 
This, Yeah. 

2035
02:03:03,320 --> 02:03:04,840
Let's move to the next chart 
here. 

2036
02:03:07,760 --> 02:03:11,040
The next I like one. 
OK, there we go. 

2037
02:03:14,120 --> 02:03:20,600
So we have Jaden Reed here and 
obviously incredible and I don't

2038
02:03:20,600 --> 02:03:22,320
think we have to spend too much 
time on him. 

2039
02:03:23,080 --> 02:03:27,640
We've already talked about 
Jordan Addison of him being like

2040
02:03:27,640 --> 02:03:30,720
this or B2. 
And if Sam Darnell is going to 

2041
02:03:30,720 --> 02:03:33,840
continue to crush, then Jordan 
Addison is going to continue to 

2042
02:03:33,840 --> 02:03:35,920
crush. 
So like that's super 

2043
02:03:35,920 --> 02:03:41,800
interesting. 
And Brian Thomas, so he, he's 

2044
02:03:41,800 --> 02:03:45,920
now 75 to 80% red chair with the
Jags. 

2045
02:03:46,240 --> 02:03:49,360
He's got this really strong 
underlying usage and the Jags 

2046
02:03:49,360 --> 02:03:50,640
are going to turn it around. 
They have. 

2047
02:03:50,680 --> 02:03:52,200
It has to be true, Brian Thomas,
right? 

2048
02:03:52,880 --> 02:03:56,040
Yeah, Brian Thomas looks like 
the way you want to play this. 

2049
02:03:56,320 --> 02:03:59,360
Not that Christian Kirk hasn't 
been getting decent targets. 

2050
02:03:59,360 --> 02:04:04,400
It's just that like, Christian 
Kirk is known and Brian Thomas, 

2051
02:04:05,040 --> 02:04:09,200
number one, he looks very good 
and #2 he's he's a rookie. 

2052
02:04:09,200 --> 02:04:13,480
So we still have that unknown 
unknowable upside for him where 

2053
02:04:13,480 --> 02:04:16,800
it's like, what could this guy 
actually be? 

2054
02:04:17,320 --> 02:04:21,040
And I think, I think the only 
thing you know for certain about

2055
02:04:21,040 --> 02:04:24,920
Brian Thomas is that he's worse 
than Malik Neighbors. 

2056
02:04:25,680 --> 02:04:28,560
And so if that's the cap, if the
cap is he can't be better than 

2057
02:04:28,560 --> 02:04:30,960
Malik neighbors because we got 
to see a lot of those guys 

2058
02:04:30,960 --> 02:04:34,480
together in college. 
Well, that's still still leaves 

2059
02:04:34,560 --> 02:04:36,880
a lot of a lot of meal. 
A lot of headway. 

2060
02:04:37,480 --> 02:04:40,440
Yeah, so I'm, I'm very 
interested in Brian Thomas. 

2061
02:04:40,440 --> 02:04:44,520
If you if you want to be playing
Jags because you get the the 

2062
02:04:44,560 --> 02:04:48,240
indie match up this week. 
It kind of seems like this could

2063
02:04:48,240 --> 02:04:50,560
be the sneaky get right spot for
the Jag. 

2064
02:04:50,600 --> 02:04:54,480
This is the, you know, Trevor 
Lawrence come save your job type

2065
02:04:54,480 --> 02:04:56,960
week. 
So maybe the Brian Thomas 

2066
02:04:56,960 --> 02:04:59,720
eruption spot. 
I I definitely am interested in 

2067
02:04:59,720 --> 02:05:04,080
it. 
Let's see, we we covered most of

2068
02:05:04,080 --> 02:05:06,720
those guys. 
Oh. 

2069
02:05:07,440 --> 02:05:11,240
Really, I guess Jay Jaylen 
Waddle is very concerning with 

2070
02:05:11,240 --> 02:05:13,080
this. 
Like on their mind usage it's. 

2071
02:05:13,280 --> 02:05:17,640
It's super concerning, man. 
I mean, there's so much of it 

2072
02:05:17,640 --> 02:05:20,680
that's a little hard to parse 
with Miami because when you look

2073
02:05:20,680 --> 02:05:24,560
at all their players, Tyree 
Kill, Jalen Waddle, Devana Chan,

2074
02:05:25,040 --> 02:05:28,720
like all of it looks concerning 
for for one reason or another. 

2075
02:05:30,200 --> 02:05:33,760
I mean, right, part of it has to
be the quarterback, right? 

2076
02:05:33,760 --> 02:05:39,200
You're missing to a so. 
What like Tyreke's, Even though 

2077
02:05:39,200 --> 02:05:44,560
his his points are down, his 
usage is is still up there. 

2078
02:05:45,320 --> 02:05:49,840
Yeah, I just, I think, I mean, 
we saw in in that first week 

2079
02:05:49,840 --> 02:05:52,520
with Tua, we saw Waddle go over 
100 yards. 

2080
02:05:52,520 --> 02:05:54,760
He's, he's getting, you know. 
Right, right. 

2081
02:05:54,800 --> 02:05:57,560
That's fair. 
But he also did the, the classic

2082
02:05:57,560 --> 02:06:01,200
Jalen Waddle thing where he like
left the game for injury halfway

2083
02:06:01,200 --> 02:06:04,360
through. 
So it's, it's a little weird. 

2084
02:06:04,360 --> 02:06:07,640
I'm, I mean, I'm pretty much all
the way off Jalen Waddle until 

2085
02:06:07,640 --> 02:06:11,920
you get Tua back for it's really
hard with Tyreek and a Chan 

2086
02:06:11,920 --> 02:06:14,000
cause because you don't want to 
play them. 

2087
02:06:14,040 --> 02:06:18,920
It just seems so, so bad. 
But they're both players where 

2088
02:06:18,920 --> 02:06:23,360
individually they're like the 
talent level is so high that 

2089
02:06:23,360 --> 02:06:28,280
it's like any given play. 
All, all that it takes for these

2090
02:06:28,280 --> 02:06:32,120
guys to have an 80 yard 
touchdown is for one guy in the 

2091
02:06:32,120 --> 02:06:34,640
wrong spot on the defense to, to
fall down. 

2092
02:06:34,960 --> 02:06:37,320
You know you you need 11 
defender to either be in the 

2093
02:06:37,320 --> 02:06:40,440
right sort of fall down and it's
an 80 yard touchdown. 

2094
02:06:41,360 --> 02:06:45,680
And so the other thing with 
Tyreek is, so his usage is still

2095
02:06:45,680 --> 02:06:48,800
up there because he's still 
getting the deep shots and 

2096
02:06:49,320 --> 02:06:54,160
because he's Tyreek, where's I 
think Waddle's worth a lot more 

2097
02:06:54,160 --> 02:06:56,960
the intermediate stuff. 
And like the quarterbacks right 

2098
02:06:56,960 --> 02:07:00,000
now have just been incapable of 
working the intermediate. 

2099
02:07:00,120 --> 02:07:01,640
So. 
So maybe that that's the 

2100
02:07:01,640 --> 02:07:03,560
discrepancy that you're kind of 
hitting on there. 

2101
02:07:03,560 --> 02:07:04,720
Yeah. 
Yeah. 

2102
02:07:06,440 --> 02:07:11,480
And but I, I don't think, I 
don't think there's too much. 

2103
02:07:11,720 --> 02:07:14,920
Else here, last quick, super 
quick note, we can get to the 

2104
02:07:14,920 --> 02:07:17,680
last chart. 
Keene and Allen, we talked, we 

2105
02:07:17,680 --> 02:07:20,400
talked about the bears being 
like hard to know when to start 

2106
02:07:20,400 --> 02:07:23,400
them, but Keene and Allen with 
the the weighted targets for 

2107
02:07:23,400 --> 02:07:27,520
route run that he's getting, 
like you said, you're just 

2108
02:07:27,520 --> 02:07:31,720
basically playing for like, will
I get the magical Chicago 50 

2109
02:07:31,720 --> 02:07:37,160
passing attempts game? 
I mean, it's so hard to figure 

2110
02:07:37,160 --> 02:07:39,600
out when that's going to come 
because normally I would say 

2111
02:07:39,760 --> 02:07:41,480
when are they going to be big 
underdogs? 

2112
02:07:41,480 --> 02:07:43,680
You know, when are they going to
be against an opponent that's 

2113
02:07:43,680 --> 02:07:46,720
really just going to force them 
to have no option but but to 

2114
02:07:46,720 --> 02:07:50,360
pass. 
But I don't even I'm not even 

2115
02:07:50,360 --> 02:07:54,600
confident that that they would 
do it there like Shane Waldron 

2116
02:07:54,600 --> 02:07:57,600
coming out and and intentionally
running the ball more and 

2117
02:07:57,600 --> 02:08:01,440
throwing, you know, a league low
number of times this week after 

2118
02:08:01,440 --> 02:08:04,640
his players like confronted him 
and said, Hey, we we need to be 

2119
02:08:04,640 --> 02:08:06,240
more aggressive. 
We need to do more. 

2120
02:08:06,880 --> 02:08:09,320
And then he goes and like turns 
around and does the exact 

2121
02:08:09,320 --> 02:08:12,880
opposite. 
I mean, it's a bad at his job 

2122
02:08:12,880 --> 02:08:15,400
thing and also an ego thing, it 
seems like. 

2123
02:08:15,400 --> 02:08:20,800
So I'm just, I'm so it's so hard
to predict when you have people 

2124
02:08:20,800 --> 02:08:27,080
that aren't his decisions aren't
who, who knows what leads him to

2125
02:08:27,080 --> 02:08:28,440
make the decisions that he 
makes. 

2126
02:08:28,440 --> 02:08:32,560
So it's just like impossible to 
guess when it's going to happen,

2127
02:08:33,240 --> 02:08:35,920
which I guess all means it's 
probably hard for your opponents

2128
02:08:35,920 --> 02:08:37,840
to guess when it's going to 
happen as well. 

2129
02:08:37,840 --> 02:08:40,680
So Keenan will probably 
perpetually be a low owned play.

2130
02:08:42,160 --> 02:08:45,320
It might just be like a, if 
you're playing AGPP format 

2131
02:08:45,480 --> 02:08:49,200
contest, you take your Keenan 
Allen medicine every week. 

2132
02:08:49,280 --> 02:08:53,040
Like like this last week I think
he was sub 1% owned and I 

2133
02:08:53,040 --> 02:08:57,360
sprinkled it in some entries 
coming off the injury and not a 

2134
02:08:57,360 --> 02:08:59,600
ton. 
I think I had like 3-3 or 5%. 

2135
02:08:59,600 --> 02:09:02,120
But it's like that's enough when
no one else is playing him. 

2136
02:09:02,120 --> 02:09:05,920
So I for me personally, I'm 
probably going to do the take my

2137
02:09:05,920 --> 02:09:10,080
Keenan Allen or or Bears pass 
catcher Colcumnet medicine every

2138
02:09:10,080 --> 02:09:12,080
week kind of thing. 
And it just a small amount. 

2139
02:09:12,080 --> 02:09:14,720
I'll light a very small amount 
of money on fire every week 

2140
02:09:14,720 --> 02:09:20,760
chasing that. 
OK, I think I'm back. 

2141
02:09:22,800 --> 02:09:24,960
OK, we can. 
We can go to the loss chart now.

2142
02:09:26,040 --> 02:09:29,760
I think my Internet I had a had 
a Korean Internet outage. 

2143
02:09:31,280 --> 02:09:34,040
Yeah, I think you may need to re
share your screen because we're 

2144
02:09:34,040 --> 02:09:37,960
still on the 70 to 85% chart. 
Oh, no. 

2145
02:09:39,400 --> 02:09:44,680
All right. 
Present share screen, great 

2146
02:09:44,680 --> 02:09:45,240
catch. 
Thank you. 

2147
02:09:45,960 --> 02:09:48,280
OK, We're almost across the 
finish line here. 

2148
02:09:48,960 --> 02:09:52,520
And so one, one thing that I 
thought was interesting. 

2149
02:09:52,520 --> 02:09:57,360
So he doesn't he didn't have the
the the route chair to to make 

2150
02:09:57,360 --> 02:10:03,280
this chart, but Troy Franklin 
popped in my kind of dashboard 

2151
02:10:03,280 --> 02:10:06,840
thing as somebody who's getting 
like a really, he's getting air 

2152
02:10:06,840 --> 02:10:10,760
yards, he's getting a high, high
target run. 

2153
02:10:10,760 --> 02:10:18,200
He's getting a variation between
deep, medium, short targets and 

2154
02:10:18,200 --> 02:10:21,400
so it hasn't hit yet. 
So they haven't been able to 

2155
02:10:21,400 --> 02:10:25,160
make it work. 
But I think that's that's super 

2156
02:10:25,160 --> 02:10:30,000
interesting for Franklin and 
hopefully that kind of develops 

2157
02:10:30,480 --> 02:10:35,280
and our bags are OK. 
So do you think it's too gross 

2158
02:10:35,280 --> 02:10:42,720
to play Troy Franklin this week?
It probably is too gross, isn't 

2159
02:10:42,720 --> 02:10:44,760
it? 
Yeah, I want it. 

2160
02:10:44,960 --> 02:10:50,240
In like a large in a large, 
large field GPP and you're 

2161
02:10:50,240 --> 02:10:55,400
looking for like the the min 
price guy to hit and you want to

2162
02:10:55,400 --> 02:11:00,840
move off the chalk like I I like
I I don't think it's like just a

2163
02:11:00,840 --> 02:11:05,760
bad, bad play, but it that's. 
Super, super contrarian. 

2164
02:11:06,280 --> 02:11:11,360
So let's see we've got Raiders 
Broncos is a 1:00 game. 

2165
02:11:11,360 --> 02:11:15,240
So here you go. 
Here's here's the GPP bro card 

2166
02:11:15,240 --> 02:11:21,520
earning play of the week. 
You start off your morning with 

2167
02:11:21,520 --> 02:11:25,400
some chalk and then if your 
chalk fails, you're doing the 

2168
02:11:25,400 --> 02:11:29,920
late swap to Troy Franklin, the 
min price wide receiver for the 

2169
02:11:29,920 --> 02:11:32,920
1:00 games and you just jam in 
Troy Franklin. 

2170
02:11:33,280 --> 02:11:34,640
And you know what? 
Even better? 

2171
02:11:34,640 --> 02:11:38,600
Leave your quarterback slot open
so you can do the full Bonex 

2172
02:11:38,600 --> 02:11:43,960
Troy Franklin, Courtland Sutton,
Full Contrarian Vomit Sack late 

2173
02:11:43,960 --> 02:11:45,960
swap. 
There you go, behind, there you 

2174
02:11:46,000 --> 02:11:50,360
go. 
Just needs to hit one bomb. 

2175
02:11:51,000 --> 02:11:54,400
The the last chart is not 
displaying but there is really 

2176
02:11:54,400 --> 02:11:59,720
only one note I had for it. 
Dantavion Wix pops on the. 

2177
02:11:59,880 --> 02:12:01,120
Chart. 
I never added it for this. 

2178
02:12:01,120 --> 02:12:01,840
Oh. 
There we go. 

2179
02:12:02,120 --> 02:12:05,560
OK, so Dantavion Wix is clearly 
popping here. 

2180
02:12:06,000 --> 02:12:08,640
He's gonna be the worst kept 
secret in fantasy football this 

2181
02:12:08,640 --> 02:12:11,200
week. 
Like I could not imagine a guy 

2182
02:12:11,200 --> 02:12:15,000
who's gonna catch as much steam 
as Dantavion Wix is is gonna 

2183
02:12:15,000 --> 02:12:20,160
get. 
Oh people are dying, dying for 

2184
02:12:20,160 --> 02:12:24,040
him to be a a tank. 
So, so listen here, I'm I'm 

2185
02:12:24,040 --> 02:12:27,800
going to this is no cold water 
is being thrown on Dontavion 

2186
02:12:27,800 --> 02:12:29,880
Wix. 
I think he's a very solid play. 

2187
02:12:30,320 --> 02:12:32,640
But you know where no one is 
going to want to go. 

2188
02:12:32,640 --> 02:12:36,000
No one's going to want to go to 
Romeo Dobbs this week because he

2189
02:12:36,000 --> 02:12:39,400
is the boring version. 
You know the boring play here. 

2190
02:12:39,400 --> 02:12:40,880
He's already been running the 
routes. 

2191
02:12:40,880 --> 02:12:43,560
Dontavion Wix is the one that's 
actually benefiting from the 

2192
02:12:43,560 --> 02:12:46,640
injury. 
I just think it's more a bet on,

2193
02:12:46,680 --> 02:12:48,280
hey, I think the Packers are 
good. 

2194
02:12:48,280 --> 02:12:50,800
I think Jordan Love is good. 
I think the Rams are terrible. 

2195
02:12:51,200 --> 02:12:54,440
And I think any of these guys in
any given week can score a 

2196
02:12:54,440 --> 02:13:00,280
touchdown like it can happen. 
And so it's for me, it's purely 

2197
02:13:00,280 --> 02:13:02,840
like it's not a talent play. 
I'm not saying Dobbs is better 

2198
02:13:02,840 --> 02:13:05,520
than Wix or better than Reed. 
I think both of them are 

2199
02:13:05,520 --> 02:13:08,560
probably I think Reed is 
substantially better than both 

2200
02:13:08,560 --> 02:13:10,400
of the other guys. 
I think Wix is probably better 

2201
02:13:10,400 --> 02:13:15,240
than Dobbs, but I mean Dobbs is 
yes. 

2202
02:13:15,400 --> 02:13:18,040
I think Dobbs is probably going 
to come in pretty low owned. 

2203
02:13:18,080 --> 02:13:23,040
So anyway, Dobbs is the sneaky 
pivot off of the really, really 

2204
02:13:23,040 --> 02:13:28,520
chalk Wicks. 
OK, I think I'm back. 

2205
02:13:29,000 --> 02:13:31,680
I, I think you're back as well. 
That was, that was all I had 

2206
02:13:31,680 --> 02:13:34,080
though on this chart. 
Was there anyone else that you 

2207
02:13:34,520 --> 02:13:38,120
you wanted to talk about Draco? 
All I said, I don't, I don't and

2208
02:13:38,120 --> 02:13:42,080
I don't think it came true is 
and Dobbs, you're just, you're 

2209
02:13:42,080 --> 02:13:46,160
just saying that Dobbs is like 
somewhere between A1 and a $5 AD

2210
02:13:46,600 --> 02:13:51,720
in, in unwavers in in FFPC and 
stuff. 

2211
02:13:52,160 --> 02:13:55,440
Yeah, I'm more, I'm more looking
at Dobbs through the lens of 

2212
02:13:55,440 --> 02:13:58,360
like single week DFS just 
because I think you're gonna get

2213
02:13:58,360 --> 02:14:00,560
so much on TV on Wix team this 
week. 

2214
02:14:00,720 --> 02:14:02,960
OK, OK, yeah, no, that makes 
sense. 

2215
02:14:03,000 --> 02:14:07,080
And and we've seen that. 
We've seen some big, we've seen 

2216
02:14:07,080 --> 02:14:13,560
some big Dobbs games too. 
I think I so AD Mitchell kind of

2217
02:14:13,560 --> 02:14:18,800
pops here as somebody who's 
getting a so he's at a 24% tax 

2218
02:14:18,800 --> 02:14:24,880
for a run on a 21A dot on 40 to 
50% routes. 

2219
02:14:25,920 --> 02:14:30,280
And if, if it's a Flacco week, 
that could be pretty 

2220
02:14:30,280 --> 02:14:32,360
interesting. 
And there was also some pretty 

2221
02:14:32,360 --> 02:14:35,880
interesting comments where they 
were like, Oh yeah, he looks 

2222
02:14:35,880 --> 02:14:40,240
fantastic in practice. 
Like he, he, he is killing it. 

2223
02:14:40,600 --> 02:14:43,160
And, and, and we got, we got to 
convert that to games. 

2224
02:14:43,880 --> 02:14:47,520
And so I, I, I think he's kind 
of interesting too. 

2225
02:14:48,360 --> 02:14:49,760
Yeah, I think that's a good 
call. 

2226
02:14:49,760 --> 02:14:54,000
He's he's really interesting. 
I I think he's the the classic 

2227
02:14:54,000 --> 02:14:57,800
rookie wide receiver archetype 
that is gonna come on in the 

2228
02:14:57,800 --> 02:15:01,080
second-half of the season. 
We got to get the sneak preview 

2229
02:15:01,120 --> 02:15:04,560
with the Josh Downs injury, so 
he got to get some early playing

2230
02:15:04,560 --> 02:15:07,360
time and then you've got Alec 
Pierce. 

2231
02:15:07,360 --> 02:15:09,600
But like, that's the hurdle for 
AD Mitchell getting on the 

2232
02:15:09,600 --> 02:15:11,680
field. 
And I I think he'll be able to 

2233
02:15:11,680 --> 02:15:13,880
clear that halfway through the 
season. 

2234
02:15:14,400 --> 02:15:17,800
So and and the skill set meshes 
so nicely with Anthony 

2235
02:15:17,800 --> 02:15:20,080
Richardson. 
And if you don't have Anthony 

2236
02:15:20,080 --> 02:15:22,680
Richardson, I think Joe Flacco's
an upgrade to the passing 

2237
02:15:22,680 --> 02:15:26,360
offense. 
So yeah, AD Mitchell is 1 where 

2238
02:15:26,480 --> 02:15:31,640
you know, like if he's somehow 
on on waivers in a main event or

2239
02:15:31,640 --> 02:15:33,920
something, he's definitely worth
a stash, right? 

2240
02:15:35,600 --> 02:15:40,840
Yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure. 
And pretty strong waiver stash. 

2241
02:15:42,480 --> 02:15:46,040
I I, I already have them in a 
bunch of leagues still held the 

2242
02:15:46,040 --> 02:15:51,000
fate and but yeah, pretty, 
pretty strong waiver pick up. 

2243
02:15:52,360 --> 02:15:54,440
So I, I think, I think that's it
for us, right? 

2244
02:15:54,960 --> 02:15:58,520
I think that's it. 
So thank you for for making it 

2245
02:15:58,520 --> 02:16:00,040
through. 
We, we kept this one a little 

2246
02:16:00,040 --> 02:16:02,240
shorter, under 2 1/2 hours this 
week. 

2247
02:16:02,240 --> 02:16:07,040
So quite a short episode for us.
Hope, hope that you got 

2248
02:16:07,040 --> 02:16:10,600
something out of the the 
analysis this week and we will 

2249
02:16:10,600 --> 02:16:13,360
look forward to seeing you back 
here in week 5. 

2250
02:16:15,880 --> 02:16:16,600
See you everyone.