And we're live. Week 4 is in the books, and if
you're here for the Rashi Rice funeral, you're in the right
place. This is stat chasing Pat fryer
Helmo. This is what This is what I'm
Pat Anita hand job. Fix your sight.
Jamar. Alpha play, Chase you.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally this
voice. You're right.
Good evening, that intro always brings a small in my face.
Yeah, I mean, Pete denied my request to have Rashi Rice in a
coffin being carried by pallbearers with the faces of
Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry photoshopped on the pallbearers
as the thumbnail. But you can't stop me from
mourning my Rashi Rice bags. That was that was like the only
thing that was going well for me really this season, you know,
like that was the lone bright spot so far through 4 weeks.
So that was pretty devastating. Add that to the fact that I, I
think I had like the literal nuts on five of six players in a
dog bowl team with Rashi Rice left to go.
I had, I had two incredible line UPS that one of them had Brandon
I uke left to go. The other one had Rashi Rice
left to go. I after the morning games, I was
pretty sure I was gonna sweep the dog bowl, then take three
seats in a single week. I needed six points or so from
Brandon Rice and or Brandon Iuke or Rashi Rice to get a, a seat
and couldn't get it done, could not do it.
So bit of a tilting week for me. I I'm sure that if you're
listening to this, it probably was a bit of a tilting week for
you too, because you probably had a lot of rush.
Because you're not a fucking donkey if you're.
Not a donkey. This season sucks so far.
So far it it it, it's chopped chock timber.
Yeah, I mean, I I don't think I've ever had as many winning
like profitable slates in a row for a weekend of DFS and been as
tilted as I've been. I you know, just for a quick
recap for those of you that are interested in in hearing me
bitch the the Sunday night we're.
Late to stock chasing everyone. Let's let's let's talk about
socks. Yeah, we were just, we were
commiserating. Yeah, we were commiserating
before the show, but had 50% Derrick Henry, captain couldn't,
couldn't sync the shot was just all over, like in and out of
place the whole night. Couldn't get it to drain.
Yeah, had had like 5 different line UPS in the dog bowl that
all were very, very promising to ship.
Had a line up finish, you know, in the top 100 or so of the
milli maker that was reasonably live.
Bunch of stuff that did not go my way this weekend.
But you know what? All things considered, I'm doing
OK. What about you?
Draco, I'm doing absolutely awful.
Like really, really bad. My my dogs got into a fight last
week and we had to amputate one of their ears yesterday.
So I'm, I'm, I'm pretty sad right now.
Sounds sounds like you're having a worse day than me on all of
those positive notes that we shared.
Let's get into some charts. Yeah, you think, you think I'd
know by now I have to have a little bit more zoomed in to fit
the screen, but here we are. So we've got our QB volume
efficiency and rushing chart. And then so we've got volume
expected points from passing, We've got adjusted yards per
attempt. And then the size of the bubble
corresponds to rushing yards per game.
And you can see the reference here, whereas this corresponds
to 100 yards per game. And most of the most of the guys
are going to be smaller than that.
But you can see at Lamar gets pretty close, Jayden Daniels
gets pretty close. So if you if your bubble is up
big, you're you're doing pretty good.
Yeah. The the first thing that stands
out to me is, I mean, we can we can talk about the Russian
quarterbacks in a second, but the one that's like the clear
outlier over here is Jordan Love.
Now granted, some of this is, you know, game script depending.
It's all game script. So the the the Packers have a
neutral in in games where Jordan Love is is the QB.
They're neutral in pass rate over expected.
They just had a really, really high expected pass rate in, in
Week 4 as they're getting absolutely shellacked by the
Vikings. So I, I think that's driving
most of the that, that, that volume piece there.
Yeah, definitely agree. There's a couple other pieces
here though, that I think we want to peel back some layers on
the onion. Yeah, yeah, Jordan Love is super
interesting. One of the things that goes into
adjusted yards per attempt is interceptions, and Jordan Love
had a bunch of them on Sunday. So I I think he's not gonna.
I didn't like. That Brett Favre tweeted him
out. I know.
That's good guy. And he played like Brett Favre.
It was so good. But yeah, he so he had a ton of
interceptions and interceptions are a really large penalty.
An interception in the formula for adjusted yards per attempt
is basically the same thing as 45 passing yards or two, two and
change touchdowns. It's a big deal to throw on
interception. It really hurts.
Right. It's so that just say jars per
attempt is like it's a re weighting of the QB passive
rating to make it more intuitive.
And you don't get stuff like passive rating and you get some
quarterbacks who have weeks where they'd be better off just
throwing it into the dirt every play.
That doesn't make any sense. So it it it doesn't have that
issue. And it's also it's a lot more
intuitive to think about it and and and yards per attempt.
But yeah, you're right, it doesn't quite correspond to
fantasy points, does it? Yeah, and, and the reason I
really wanted to point that out for Love is I don't think his
interception rate is gonna be near that high going forward.
So really what I'm getting at to to say it quicker is his
adjusted yards per attempt on this chart will probably go up,
even though his expected fantasy points will likely go down
'cause they're not gonna throw a million times a game.
So I think he's still a pretty good positive regression
candidate. There's just a lot of different
moving parts here. And I think he so he has a
really high A dot. So his A dot is 10.5.
So he his yards per attempt, assuming he he, he, he doesn't
turn into a pumpkin, his yards per attempt will be high this
year. He I think unless he's
absolutely amazing, he is going to throw a decent amount of
picks just because it's really hard not to throw picks when
you're when you're A dot is 10 1/2 and and and if they maintain
that neutral password over ever expected.
But what also comes with high A dot is the yardage and
touchdowns, which is great for fantasy.
Yeah. So Jordan Love looking like a
pretty incredible quarterback for fantasy right now.
Like if you had to pick right now, do you want Jordan Love or
do you want CJ Stroud straight up rest of the season?
That's that's that's really hard.
So I wasn't I wasn't thinking about Stroud.
Let me see. So the Texans are also neutral
and phosphate over expected. His ADAS 7.9 he is running
probably I mean he's running OK on efficiency, which that like
so he's at 7.8 where you have a Lamar 8.5, Jayden Daniels 8.6.
So he's a little bit below and Brock Purdy 9.4.
So he's running a little bit low on efficiency, which for
somebody who started who played so well last year, is kind of
shocking. So I think CJ Stroud is a pretty
like not not this. I didn't come out this in a
quantitative way and more like he's a, he's at average, whereas
I think his, like his true where, where he should land is
really high. So I, I, I think, I think CJ
Stroud is a pretty good regression candidate actually.
OK. But it it does say a lot that it
took a lot of thinking to determine who you want.
Well, yeah, I, I think Jordan love.
I think Jordan love is, is really interesting.
I I like I said, the Brett Favre of tweeting about him like he's
kind of playing like the Brett Favre.
No, it's only two games. It's 2, but it's two games.
So he's he's he's playing very aggressively and they're they're
at least their pass rate over expected is neutral, which in in
this new NFL that maybe that's actually high.
So like that, that's pretty. That's pretty exciting.
Yeah, definitely. I'm I'm excited about love.
He also gets an incredible match up against the Rams this week.
And and I think the teams the the match up for from both sides
meshes really well because what the Rams would love to do is
give Kyron Williams a bunch of opportunities because he's the
only thing they feel good about in their offense right now.
And the Packers have not been great against the run.
And then you've got the Packers who would love to, you know,
just score at will and the Rams defense is happy to let you do
that either through the air on the ground.
I think that, you know, in a neutral game script, like like
you've said, the Packers are going to remain balanced.
So it's a it's a good spot for pretty much east on the Packers.
I. Would say it's, it's, it sounds
like we should expect the Packers to win by like the do
you know, I, I don't know if you have odds or anything like, or,
or like the, the sides or anything like that, but it
sounds like they should score a lot of points.
And and, and, and and you kind of like you, you look for that
to come true to passing and with the potential that if they go up
a lot they, they, they are probably pretty happy to
establish it. Yeah, it looks like right now
the the line is set at 48 total points.
But let me just check another source to verify that.
Packers favored by 3 1/2, which M that M that's not too big of a
spread, so that that that that projects is like competitive.
Yeah, should should be a good game.
OK, Moving on to other quarterbacks on the chart close
to Jordan Love is Joe Burrow, who is moving in a positive
direction on the chart after having both of his weapons back.
Now, I, I don't know how we could have seen this coming that
this quarterback would improve after getting, you know his
when. You say it like that, me feeling
happy that I was like, Oh yeah, Joe Burrow is a is a positive
regression candidate, me feeling happy about that.
And it's like, oh, maybe, maybe that it was kind of predictable.
No, it was, I mean, it was a good call.
I think there were people that were a little worried about Joe
Burrow. Right, right, right, right.
The the vibes were were at least a little negative.
Yeah, I mean, I, I think the vibes are still bad in Cleveland
or in Cleveland, Cincinnati. They need to win and they are.
They're in a an interesting game this week against the Ravens
where we definitely could see some points.
I believe that one's got a pretty high total as well.
I want to say that one is 50. So Burrow, I think they're gonna
they're gonna still be passing quite a bit.
And so I I really like this spot for him this week.
I think it's a. Oh, it's an this is an
incredible, incredible spot for Burrow where like he's playing
really well to me, he's playing really well.
He's ran a little bit low on on touchdowns, but they they have
what you call it. They've been high on the pass
rate over expected. They they it looks like Chase is
has hit a stride. T Higgins is back and the Ravens
are actually a pretty big pass one or two.
Like I, I I think that spot is really interesting.
Like one, one thing that sort of mitigated Burroughs kind of like
good day against the Panthers is that they were negative and pass
rate over expected against the Panthers.
And I, I think they, they were just favorited.
And so they, they ran the ball. They, they won by 10 points.
But the Ravens are big pass funnels.
So if you have somebody who's playing well, weapons hitting
their stride and they should throw a lot.
I I, I, I think that's super interesting.
Yeah, I mean, that game against Carolina could have completely
gone a different direction too. I, I don't know if you got to to
watch that one, but the really like.
Watch the game. Really, it looked to me like,
you know, the, the Bengals were kind of on the ropes and then
Jamar Chase had one of the best individual effort plays I saw on
the whole week. Just, you know, breaking
tackles. Like, right.
It, it, it was like the classic kind of like Debo play where
it's like, oh, Oh no, Debo has the ball and he's in the
secondary. Like, I guess no one can tackle
him now. It was like 1.
He's in full stride. Yeah, it is crazy that you
forget that he can do that. Yeah, I know.
I mean, like he has this open field ability or when he hits
full stride that he he's he's unstoppable like that.
It like for somebody who's who's who's such a good deep ball
receiver that have also have that in his bag is pretty cool.
Yeah, no, it's a good, good reminder why we were drafting
this guy where we drafted. We can just go and do stuff like
that. So I I don't even, we haven't
even seen like an actual Jamar Chase eruption game yet.
Wouldn't surprise me at all if this is the week where you get
that. Right, right.
I I, I, I completely agree. I think, I think it's, it's
super interesting. You know what is here?
Here's some alpha for anyone, anyone drafting the dog bowl
right now. You can get Joe Burrow in the
fifth round pretty consistently. I've seen him go in the 6th a
couple times, too. Yeah, Like he he goes after.
Yeah, he goes after some absolutely ridiculous guys.
Like, there's no reason he should be going.
Do you? Think, do you think, do you
think we're they're just giving the Ravens like too much respect
after after the the prime time game?
That's what it kind of feels like.
I don't know. I'm, I'm, I think it's part, I
think it's partially like the bad vibes carrying over from the
first couple weeks for Burrow. You know what's crazy, though?
Is Burrows gonna project as one of the best plays on the slate?
Like. OK, so so get that value before
the projections come out is. What you're saying Burrow will
probably be like, oh gosh, the fourth highest projected
quarterback on the slate. If I were gonna guess the
problem. The only reason he's not higher
is because he's on the slate with Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
and Jayden Daniels, who I guess we can move to now.
I, I mean, I'm not the first one with this take, Draco, but I'll,
I'll echo it. I mean, I, I've heard, you know,
Ben Gretch and and Sean Siegel, you know, coming in pretty
strong with this one. But Jayden Daniels as the QB one
rest of season. Like I don't even think it's a
particularly hot take because the people who would, you know,
we would have anticipated competing with him for QB one
are on teams like the Bills who are are truly not interested in
passing the ball. That what what Josh Allen is
doing is extended handoffs. Like there's there's no real
passing attempts happening for the Bills.
There's the occasional one that's downfield, but the vast
majority of them are like these. No A dot anything like it's just
Dinkin and Duncan and and so and they're also not throwing all
that often. If you look at his expected
fantasy points from passing like he's they're not there's not a
ton of attempts happening. So Josh Allen's fantasy.
This isn't the the Josh Allen of of the last couple years.
No, this is what you're getting is really fancy Justin Fields
where you're not. And it's not even fair to call
it really fancy Justin Fields cause the, the passing
production is coming entirely different.
You know what? It's almost like Justin Fields
of this year, not not Justin Fields of years past, but with
better rushing. You know, it's, it's weird, man.
I, I think it continues though, too, because it's kind of what
we saw through the second-half of last year.
So the trend that we. This, this, this is how they
wanna play. And honestly, with the receivers
they have, it's kind of how they need to play.
Yeah, so, so that's that's why Josh Allen's not live for, well,
calling him not live for QB. One not live.
He's not the favorite. And he's he's certainly not the
favorite anymore. And then you get to Lamar
Jackson. And the reason he's not the
favorite to be QB. One is the Ravens do really
enjoy running out their their new shiny toy of Derrick Henry.
And also they finally, the year that I am did not draft very
much of this player, finally are deploying Justice Hill in a
really effective role, much to my, you know, chagrin here now
that I don't have any of them. So you get 2 teams where their
quarterbacks are good. But you know, I'm not saying
that Jackson or Allen are bad quarterbacks.
They're both very good. They just aren't passing as
much. And and with the Bills, they're
not passing deep at all. And so you just end up with
these low attempts. That's why they're here in this,
you know, low expected fantasy points from passing where Jayden
Daniels they're actually passing a good bit, but the expected
fantasy points from passing are a little low for Daniels.
Just you know, I think in part due to the really, really low A
dot stuff over the first couple weeks.
So do you, I guess that was a really long winded way of
getting to do you think there's a chance for Jayden Niels to
move further right on the expected fantasy points from
passing part of that access of the chart here?
So to, to do that to, to increase the volume or true our
expected fantasy points, to increase that projection, they
have to throw deep a lot more because he's getting the
dropbacks, he's getting the attempts.
And what's weird about Jayden Daniels is because he's a
rusher, his time to throw is really high.
And so he he he holds the ball similarly to how somebody who
it's it's kind of similar to to peak Russell Wilson or or QBs
like that where they hold the ball waiting for trying to make
something happen. But then the A dot is is super
low. And that's obviously the Cliff
Kingsbury thing. How?
Does how does it compare to Jalen Hurts this year?
Because I I noticed that his time to throw is up pretty
substantially this year, and that was even before he he lost
his primary receiving weapons. So Jaden Daniels.
His time to throw is 3 point O OK and which is 3 seconds is.
Most of these guys are below. Yeah, that's high.
That's quite high. And then Hertz, Hertz is his is
3.17. OK.
So Hertz is really high and then Jayden Downloads is high too.
And, and, and, and, and so guys who are mobile, you expect you
expect high numbers for them because you have those plays
where they break out of the pocket and then they try to make
something happen and, and this is an average.
So it's going to push that number up.
But normally with that comes the down the field play and and you
haven't been getting that with Jane Daniels.
I mean, it feels like what they should do because you, you have
this quarterback who already kind of stresses the field
horizontally because of his mobility.
And then you have Terry Mclaurin who, who, who, who he's made
most of his money being a good deep track.
It it feels like what they should do, but I don't.
I don't know if that's if that's who the team identity is.
Yeah, I, I just, I guess my, my thesis on it is there's no way
that you cannot add more deep passing into this offense after
seeing it work the way that it has with Daniels.
And that was one of his strongest aspects, as you know,
final season in college, that that was one of the things that
people were raising. That's one of his tools.
Yeah. And and so I I just, I have a
hard time believing that. I mean, we we already got word
that he was asking Cliff Kingsbury and Terry McClure in
it is right, right. Like please Sir, just one more
deep pass like. Right, right.
I I think I put that meme up like please Sir, like in Oliver
Twist. Yeah, I, I, I think that's the
that is the natural progression to me.
And that's like just imagine if you if you drag that Jaden
Daniels bubble even over to that median line, like there there's
a reason why these guys with the huge rushing numbers, Jayden
Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Kyler Mary, Josh Allen
are all to the left of the median for expected fantasy
points for passing. And it's you know, it's because
they're eating up a bunch of that with their rushing
attempts, right, that they just naturally are going to end up
with less pass attempts. But I think that you could get
Jayden Daniels increasing his A dot enough to maybe approach the
median there, which he would just be far and away the QB one
if that's the case, right And I. I think that's a bowl case,
that's an upside scenario, but it is Cliff Kingsbury.
I, I, I don't think we should like expect that he's going to
go all of a sudden, like actually, you know what guys, I
think we should try the, the ball down the field now.
Yeah, I, I think. I just wanna, it's not
impossible. That's one of those things where
if it broke that way, it's like, aw shit.
Yeah, I'd rather just lean into the outcome where when I'm right
and early to it, I'm just gonna win all the money for a week or
two and then everyone else can catch up to me while I'm taking
it to the bank, you know? But I I think I'm.
So I'm. So are you playing that through
Terry Mclaurin then? Yeah, I'm playing it through
Terry Mclaurin. I'm also just playing it with
naked Daniels and then. OK, but it it isn't isn't
Daniel's kind of like isn't isn't his his quality priced in
I I actually I haven't seen a DP.
I just, I got him at pick 28 in a dog bowl just before we
started the show. I promise you he will be a top
12 quarterback, Top 12 ADP quarterback by projection when
projection. Right, right.
Yeah, Easily. Easily.
Going away, you know, So for him to go at the 2-3 turn like that,
you're, you're stealing, like absolutely stealing.
So he's a really good target right now.
I, I don't know if people are like worried about the Browns
match up or whatever. I I don't think it matters all
that much 'cause I think if if you get the upside case playing
out, you're just gonna win all the money, you're gonna have a
quarterback that's separating hugely from the field here.
I, I don't think it should be the primary focus, but I think
there is like some, some credence to if the, the Browns
have this good pass rush, he has a high time patrol.
His pressure to sack rate has been high.
It hasn't mattered just because he's been playing.
He's other than that he's been playing well.
The volume's been there and all that kind of stuff.
But that that is the type of team that or type of defense
that might be his kryptonite. Now, do we know what's going on
with the Miles Garrett injury? Is he going to miss this week?
I I actually I I have no idea. 'Cause I believe he left with a
foot injury. I'm I'm looking here to see if I
can find anything. Yeah, I I looked it up, but I
spelled his name wrong. I got a a baseball.
Reporter. Yeah, he's got injuries to both
feet, strained Achilles, thigh strain.
Oh. Gee.
So I don't think we've seen anything yet this week.
I I mean, yeah, just a a situation to monitor it.
If there's no miles here it like I would take Jaden Daniels
probably as high as 8th overall. That makes sense.
Dog Bowl draft. And it's really just because
we're starting to get to the point in the season when we know
who the elite players are and then who the players are below
that tier. It's just it's starting to get
more clear. We have more games, you know, we
have a larger simple. And so it's like, all right
after Jayden reads off the board, like all these wide
receivers are pretty similar for a long time.
All these running backs pretty similar for a long time.
So anyway, that was that was me hopping on the Jayden Daniels
Bowl case bandwagon. Two other quarterbacks to I
think you either want to get on the bandwagon or get out of the
way is Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy.
They've just perpetually been, you know, for the first four
weeks they've been atop this chart as far as some of the most
efficient by adjusted yards per attempt and they've been above
the median and expected fantasy points from passing.
So I I think this is just like, welcome to the new NFL.
Like it's the Mick Shanaskan system world and we're all just
living in it. Like these guys are going like
the Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy efficiency will continue until
morale improves. Like I, I just think, right?
It's here to stay. It's a, it's, it's a, it's a
thing. It's not a, it's not an ampler.
No, yeah, not at all. I'm you last.
If you watched us last season, you know that I was like a
chronic Brock Purdy hater. I'm fully capitulating.
I'm I'm on the Brock Purdy bandwagon.
I'm I'm here. I'm the shirts in the mail.
So so Sam Darnold being up here I I think it it's immense that
obviously Justin Jefferson is wide receiver one does it cement
him as as as the one O 1 I I know that's it.
We're not at, we're not at the receiver chart, but.
The. It's an interesting, yeah.
Yeah, I think when we get to the receiver chart, the there's
actually for, for me, honestly, if you made me, if we had to
redraft right now, the one O 1 is the the spot that I don't
want to pick in because I think there's like 5 very viable
choices for the one O 1. And it's probably like Justin
Jefferson, Jamar Chase, CD Lamb. I mean, give me Justin Jefferson
over like cleanly ahead of those guys.
Malik Neighbors still Justin Jefferson.
Yeah, OK. I think, I mean, I think that's
reasonable. He's obviously incredible.
He looks, you know, just absolutely absurd.
He's very. Very, but then the other take
away it is and and and this kind of is speaking to our backs.
It makes Jordan Addison, like insane, like just fucking insane
as a wide receiver to in that offense.
He's like, he was great. He puts me back too.
Positive pass rate over expected.
So they're you've got the volume, he's on the right side
of the chart and then you've got the efficiency from the
quarterback. It doesn't matter how it comes
like getting that quote, getting that wide receiver to as cheaply
as he has been. I'm not sure what his
resurrection ADP is, but like think about like some of the
best offenses and what the wide receiver to has been like the
the discrepancy to what it was this season and, and and what
those historical prices have been is, is pretty large.
Here's a here's a really gross one.
Are you ready to this is not quarterback related.
We're fully off the rails, but Jordan Addison or Jalen Waddle
rest of season, you have to assume there's some probability
of two, you know, not coming back.
Oh jeez, I I like it feels it, it feels like, it feels very
vibesy like I, I I, I do prefer Jordan Addison, I think.
Yeah, me too. Yeah, I don't think it's vibesy
at all. I think it's the correct take,
like. Right.
Yeah, just just because the the the risk of bottoming in that
and not Dolphins offense, it's clearly, clearly pretty awful.
As we talk about the Dolphins offense, I realized that I did
not put Snoop Huntley on here. Now granted, he only the one
game with the Dolphins, so we're just getting one.
Nobody looks at the charts anyway.
They just listened to the podcast.
Honestly like Snoop Huntley may have broken the chart so bad
that it it was a good thing to not have him on there cuz the
rest of the chart would have been like truly unreadable.
I mean Bo Nix is already like making it a little if if Bo Nix.
So he was he was at it at 4.4 adjusted yards per 10th.
OK, so you're, you're talking Will, that was bad.
You're talking to Shawn Watson bad.
But this is like, would it, would it -10% pass rate over
expected. So they're hiding this guy as
much as they can and 2.27 time to throw 8.4 A dot.
So I, yeah, to me, that kind of speaks to like maybe a, just
like an average backup, which isn't what we were promised we'd
get from from this type of offense.
Yeah, OK, let's see. Moving on to all right, we, I
think we have to talk about Pat Mahomes.
So we we get the Ruchi Rice injury.
It, it sounded pretty much like it was season ending, but we're
we're getting like some semblance, some shreds of hope
today that it might not be season end.
Where did they, they haven't confirmed that it's a yeah, it's
an ACL. So we're like, Oh well, maybe
it's not as bad, but some of the utter tears can be really bad
too. Yeah, but even even with that,
we So we get three of the four games so far with Rashi Rice.
And this is where Pat Mahomes is on the chart.
Like, is this guy just fancy Kirk Cousins in the current
iteration of the Chiefs offense? Like is that?
Is that I mean, that's certainly what the number suggests that
like that, that that's where the efficiency is like the volume
has been like fine, not amazing. And it's it's honestly it's it's
it's really difficult and tricky to put your finger on where like
this like player who seems like on a complete tear, like shoo in
for Hall of Fame. He obviously still is and he
keeps winning the Super Bowl and then the fantasy stuff, even
though they, I guess they brought in these weapons and
Holly was injured, Rashi is injured now.
And yeah, if it just feels like the Chiefs from last year and it
feels like the Chiefs from last year from the regular season
where despite all the improvements they try to make,
they're still they're still going to be trone to like
absolute bombs. Like it was got so bad where
like people are like Kareem Hunt was in there and people are like
doesn't look that bad like it. Yeah, it might just truly be
like outside of my homes, outside of the old line one, one
of the least talented offenses. Yeah, I So what I, I've seen a
bunch of people talking about, oh, like, we should have seen
Pat, Pat Mahomes is so overpriced.
We should have seen this coming. And like, as a person who was
way significantly underweight, Pat Mahomes, like under 4% Pat
Mahomes, you know, I don't have a ton thought thought the price
was a little high. I I mean I, I think saying
anything other than he could have finished as the QB 1
squarely in his range of outcomes, it is just silly.
Like, right, right. Disagreeing with that take
because it was clearly like an outcome here where Xavier wordy
was was better, I think. I think him underperforming has
been part of that story. Cause 'cause like let me let me
paint this for you in a different light.
So Tyree Kill got traded in the 2022 before the 2022 season.
Do you know what Pat Mahomes numbers were in 2022 without
Tyree Kill? I don't remember.
I think they were good though, right?
How about 5250 yards, 41 touchdowns?
That's pretty good. Give me one overall absolute
nuke. The guy was atomic and so to say
like, oh, the the chiefs, Papa Holmes was never gonna be good.
This was he didn't have Tyree kill.
He never he hadn't put up those numbers for years.
Like, dude, it was two years ago.
We saw one year of him having, you know, a year where he
wasn't, you know, the top five overall fantasy quarterbacks,
you know, or, or the one O 1 fantasy or the 1st overall
fantasy quarterback going away. Like it's, it is so
disingenuous, intellectually dishonest.
Like or or if you find yourself like, you truly believe this,
like I. What you the the weapon that the
story I think has been that like the the guys that they brought
in this year that we were hoping would kind of like push things
to a different to the level was before and have been
disappointing because like Xavier wordy his targets prayer
run at true 4 weeks 13 percent 18% thirteen percent 10% even a
dot adjusted like that. That's not what we were hoping
for. Hollywood's injured and like we
were hoping, like we were hoping that that would be a competent
place in the offense and, and, and the replacement was Juju
Smith Schuster. Well, I mean the the Chiefs, the
Chiefs 2022 wide receivers get get ready for this.
You sitting down the the same year where Pat Mahomes threw for
almost 5300 yards, 41 touchdowns, Juju Smith,
Schuster, Marquez Valdez, Scantling, Justin Watson, Miko
Hardman, Sky Moore, Cadarius, Tony, that's who he was throwing
to in 2022. So again, if you're saying, oh,
there's no chant, we should have seen this coming, that the
homes. Right, right.
I, I, I'm more thinking about like a forward-looking rather
than like, oh, I mean the, the, the run out for the weapons have
been. I, I'm more saying the run out
for the weapons has been bad. Yeah, yeah, I'm, I'm just
tilting at people. Who right, like there's
scenarios where, hey, Xavier wordy was like a first round
pick and maybe he ends up really good and but there was there was
scenarios where he he was much, much better than this.
There's scenarios where Hollywood Brown was healthy and
and and contributing at least league average or above league
average in a way that opens up everything else.
Yeah, yeah. Anyway, long, long and short of
it right now, Papma Holmes is fancy Kirk Cousins.
I think there's room for that to change.
You know, I, I think that they, they could end up in a situation
where they're just having to throw more.
You know, it's it's a long season.
I don't know if this, you know, barely eek out a victory on the
back of a bunch of, you know, Kareem Hunt carries is gonna do
the trick for them. So we'll we'll see how it plays
out here. But right now, I mean, he's not
really just just because of the name value, like he's he's not
really usable in any fantasy formats right now.
I mean, like if you got him in your home, like you're you
probably have a better option to stream on waivers a lot of
weeks, you know, so it's it's rough.
Yeah, it's rough. I mean, I I think for our rest
of season rankings over at leg up, we've got him like below
Baker Mayfield right now. So, and it's hard to argue with
that. It's like you can't.
You can't sum your fists on the table and say that's wrong.
Yeah, no, cause 'cause look where Baker's out on the Baker's
been good, Baker's been awesome. Like Baker.
Baker is one of the shortest time to throw quarterbacks in
the league. Like he's been super efficient.
I mean, I think the Baker numbers are real, like right?
Anyone else that you wanted to go over on this chart or should
we move on to running backs? No, no, I, I think we, we
covered quarterback pretty good there.
So I'm moving to snaps and usage zooming out.
And so this is because a lot of a lot of fantasy value for
running backs comes simply from being on the field.
So that that's what we're tracking here.
We're tracking the percentage of the team's offensive snaps was a
rush attempt at that player and what percentage of of team snaps
they were running a route. And we add those up together.
Those are the fantasy useful snaps.
We also look at pass blocking because it's helpful to see
who's trusted to pass block for the quarterback and then run
blocking is here too, just just to round out the picture.
So we're seeing the the true. Snapshare yeah, this chart, a
couple couple guys here where because this is through 4 weeks,
we're not seeing some of the like little, little nuance that
we've noticed in a, you know, a single game where the tides
might be turning. So I, I think it's definitely
important for us to point out some things where right.
Right, this is, this is the last week where we don't put a filter
on it. And right from next week on and
we'll we'll get rid of Week 1. And it'll be a a four week
rolling average. Yep.
But right now some of the guys that I wanted to go over where
some nuance is required to interpret this chart.
Jonathan Taylor with the high ankle sprain, I mean, if he ends
up missing, this is an enormous amount of snaps to vacate.
So I think that you have to be interested in Trey Sermon as a
really cheap option. You know, if Taylor misses, you
probably get Sermon as like the chalk DFS play of the week,
wouldn't you agree? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, you
would for sure. Another guy who I I think that
again, we have to kind of pay attention to what happened this
week and not just what happened through the 1st 4 weeks.
Zach Moss up here with an incredible usage role getting
touched so. Just just just on the JT team,
it looks like I'm not sure how many snaps Tyler Goodson's
played, but looks like he he has gotten on the field.
So he he if if JT misses time. Tyler Goodson sneaky super
sneaky waiver pick up. OK, I I do.
I do think sermon would be the one that you know gets the
majority of the volume useful. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
But you know, like, so some like someone like Sermon.
It's like sometimes those guys don't get the.
Full the full role and and also sermon.
Is a journey line guy. Yeah, he could be as bad as
we've seen him be. And I mean the, when you have
guys with that little amount of talent relative to what other,
you know, starting caliber NFL players, you know, to be
perfectly clear, Trey Sermon has has more talent in his pinky for
football than I do in my entire body 10 times over.
But, you know, relative to other NFL running backs, Trey Sermon
is is not terribly talented. So, you know, a guy like that,
it could be a fragile off situation where Goodson ends up
leading in snaps in this week. So there's a lot of fragility to
it. Or it's a 5050. 5050,
Absolutely. So like looks like like in Week
2, Goodson had eight snaps, 2 snaps week three at 1 snap week
4. So, but I mean, that's with JT
healthy. So even with even even with JT
healthy, they actually had found reasons to get this guy in the
field. So not a not not a priority, but
definitely a sneak and definitely a $1.00 pickup I'll
be doing. That's a good call.
Another one that I think we need to pay attention to what
happened this week specifically and what it means for the usage
going forward is Zac Moss, who's up here with an incredible role.
But I think Chase Brown slappies can rejoice because I think the
Chase Brown genie is out of the bottle.
It seems like it's going to be difficult for the Bengals to
keep rolling out Zac Moss as much as they are.
And I'm not saying that his role will go away.
I'm just saying, like, when you realize what you have in Chase
Brown, which sometimes it does take these organizations, you
know, seeing it in a game to believe it.
But now that they've seen it, I think they're going to have a
hard time feeling really good watching Zac Moss do his thing
when they know that they've got, you know, the Lambeau parked in
the garage with Chase Brown. Yeah.
And it's interesting. So last week they split rush
attempts, which that definitely feels like very sustainable.
But what's most interesting is that there Zach Moss, and this
is a percentage of team total place was 28% routes and then
Chase Brown 17% routes. Whereas usually it it was like
chase Brown would be like 40% of the rush attempt, something like
that. And then a really low route
attempt. But then like when he was
running around, who's getting the ball.
So like super interesting that they were a lot closer on
routes. Now Zach Moss is still doing all
the pass blocking. I think that's like notable.
I think that's important, but that they're that they're
finding ways to to more ways to get Chase Brown running routes
is interesting for sure. Yeah, the the Zac Moss Pass
blocking stuff I think definitely hurts Chase Brown in
that, you know, do you, do you think that Chase Brown can
really like get on the field in the two-minute roll like or are
they gonna need to keep Zac Moss on the field there so that he
can pass block? Cause Zac Moss is more like
their do everything guy and Chase Brown is there we like.
That that does seem like a real limitation.
Yeah, so we either need Chase Brown to develop as a pass
blocker or there's just a ceiling on his upside where he's
he's never gonna be able to usurp like a a full massive
role. But you know, I think a big
portion of the Chase Brown thesis is the incredible
efficiency and explosiveness too.
So that's that's the positive there.
But just a note on the Zac Moss role here.
It, it might be more fragile going forward now that we've
seen a breakout from Chase Brown, another guy who, so this
is a really interesting one, Draco.
This is like trying to get ahead of what I think would be logical
coaching from I think A-Team that's sharp enough to get here.
But Aaron Jones has been getting an absolutely insane amount of
work, like the most work that Aaron Jones has had for his
whole career, right? Like how many touches did he
have this last week? It was like over 30, right?
And 22 rush attempts, I'm not sure how many targets he got,
but last week he was on the field for 80% of of snap or 81%
of snaps and 25 expected points, which that's a true, true
workhorse role. Like you see like that that that
brings you up to Chiron levels. Yeah, I don't think that can
hold. Right, Right.
He's 29. Yeah.
I I would assume that has to scale down a little bit, but we
haven't, we haven't seen them. They're not doing that, but I
gotta. Turn sturdy in in two months.
I gotta think that they either do it by choice or they're
forced to do it. You know, knock on wood, but I I
hope that Aaron Jones is able to stay healthy.
But that's a lot of to give a guy who's about to be 30 and and
also has had trouble holding up to larger workloads over his.
Right, I agree. I agree and I agree.
I think Ty Chandler did not play that much.
No well, who can when the when the starter plays that much?
But even at over the this over this full year, he's got 9%
useful snapshare. No, no, sorry, 24% my, my excel
didn't load properly. 24% useful snapshare over the full year.
And I I mean over a four-game sample, I'd rather use the
four-game than than than one game sample.
So it, it, it doesn't seem unrealistic.
That can take up to 30 or 35%. Yeah, I so I would expect Aaron
Jones's role to shrink a tiny bit, but I, I still think he is.
I mean, he was a smash where you're getting in a basketball
drafts as long as he gets healthy, like one of the better
picks on the board. Right.
He's already a good a good advance rate pick, right?
Oh yeah, he's he's smashing right now.
Not like. Even even even if you didn't get
great production in the playoffs, he'd still like the
the the help that he's given you to your advance rate is is
probably still beneficial. Yeah, one of there's a couple
guys here where we've got, you know, workload concerns, where
they they show up on this chart. You know, it's having a pretty
good role, but we're starting, they're starting to be at least
a little bit of reason for concern.
So Breece Hall is 1 where we saw Braylon Allen really, you know,
get he got more carries than Bruce in this game.
And so I don't know what your thoughts are on this Trico.
It was a. Really, So I I I am I'm going to
sound like a jerk now. I was already worried in in in
in that like I thought that the Braille and Allen piece caps his
caps. Bruce's true or be or be one
like legendary season upside. I think I, I think I mentioned
that either last week or the week before, but I I certainly
would not freak out about about last week because he was still
on the field for 68% of the snaps.
He still had an expected points of 17 point tree.
He just, he either ran bad or played bad.
So his yardage was way under his touchdowns were right way under
expectation. Maybe credit to the Broncos, But
I, I, I, I do think that the Braille and Allen stealing work.
It's it's not going away, but the offense kind of does run
through the box. And so even even at 65% of that,
that's still a pretty strong role.
I I think your, your Orby one season is probably off the table
or without like something like really dramatically changing
there, but you're still going to get pretty strong production I
think from Breeze. Yeah.
Maybe he's a silent killer in this top 6 though.
Oh, I don't know if I'll go as far as Silent Killer.
I'm definitely more to where you got, where you were where OK.
I think there's actually cause for concern with the Braylon
Allen usage. Right.
By Silent Killer, I mean you took Breece Hall, which meant
you didn't get Justin Jefferson. That's what I mean.
You're like you're you're still going to get good scores from
him, but you didn't get Justin Jefferson scores.
Yeah, I, I do think that, you know, with the The Jets and
Broncos game, it's almost a throw out the tape game.
For whatever reason, the rain, they seemed to impact them.
Like there were, there were quite a bit of drops in that
game and it just looked like I, I, I don't know, both teams look
terrible. I mean, the Broncos have kind of
always looked terrible, but The Jets looked pretty atrocious as
well. That one's hard to watch, so I I
don't want to overreact too much to it, but I right, right.
You can't you can't overreact to it.
Like I agree with you. It's a true at the tape game
where like, you know, what if the NFL sometimes the defenses
make plays, it doesn't mean Braylon Allen or sorry, Braylon
Allen doesn't mean that Breeze Hall is an incredible Braylon
Allen also incredible. And I think people are like, oh,
Braylon Allen making Breeze Hall look so like just because brown
Allen isn't incredible, doesn't mean that or is incredible
doesn't mean that Bruce Hall. Bruce Hall is bad now.
Like he's still very likely going to finish very highly on
the efficiency pieces. His volume is still going to be
solid. The strong and I I just I I
don't think you get the double double the dope that so that
double digit expected points on the ground and double digit
expected points in the air, But it's it's still going to be
pretty good. Yeah, yeah, Well said.
OK, another guy who has I, I, I'm starting to be concerned for
this guy's role and he has not been good so far this season is
Josh Jacobs. Now for Josh Jacobs, you can
say, oh, well, there were two games where he didn't have
Jordan Love, so the defenses could really key on him.
But one of his his better games came in that first game without
Jordan Love, where the Packers had designed it.
Really well drawn up running game and and they were doing
all, all this innovative stuff where they're doing like fake
guard poles and scheming, you know, exotic smash man Yeah, it
it was, it truly was exotic Smash Mouth.
And and Jacobs had one of his best games from a, you know,
pure box score, but he it it was really just like compiling.
He he wasn't wasn't terribly efficient in that game at all.
This game, yes, he's super, you know, terrible game script for
him. So the rushing doesn't look
great. He does have one of his bad,
actually. Good game script for Josh
Jacobs. Unfortunately for Josh Jacobs,
drafters because. Yeah, he splits.
The carries with Emmanuel Wilson, but he's a pass blocker
and root runner for the team. So in games where they have lots
of carries, he's going to split the work almost in the middle
with Wilson. And so you need the high passing
games for him to get the for him to get to be on the field at as
much as he needs to be at his cost.
Yeah, I haven't looked into the the passing, the receiving
efficiency numbers for Jacobs yet, but just from watching the
game, he didn't look incredible in the receiving game.
It was just like, this is a warm body out here doing the thing.
He got 6 targets, so that's good.
He, he, he. He needs.
That's what he needs, so he needs those game scripts where
he can draw 6 targets. Yeah, but but 39% of snaps for
Emmanuel Wilson and again, this was in a game script where they
were passing a bunch and we see that Josh is the guy that's out
there for for the passing down. So this bodes pretty poorly for
him. I I was, yeah.
At the cost. At the cost.
You're you're, you're not happy. I'm, I, you know, just to
disclose any bias that I might have, right?
Make a bet with Sam Sherman on rest of season fantasy points
per game, Josh Jacobs versus Kyron Williams, and I'm
considering letting Sam cash out.
Our bet was for $100. Sam, I'll let you cash out for
$99.99 right now. But yeah, Josh Jacobs, I'm
concerned that we're already losing some work to Emanuel
Wilson here. We we did got a question here,
Were we able to look more into ETN?
We're looking powerfully into why he was down to just 51%
snaps last week. Well, he did.
He did have the the shoulder injury, right?
Yeah, yeah. That, that's what I was
thinking. And I, I, and I thought that was
kind of the driver of most of it, yeah.
I, I would assume it was the shoulder injury.
So that's I, I would put most of it on that.
I, I mean, I think another part of it is just the Jags stink.
So right. And and.
They've told us they wanted to do this like last year, they
said, oh, we really need someone to help take some of the load
off ETN. And so I, I think down to 51% of
snaps is probably lower than he'll be on average.
And I think part of that is because of the injury.
But I, I think that, you know, if you take his, his snap rate
historically for his career, it's going to be lower than his
career snap rate this season. Now they they seem to be more
comfortable with tank this year. Yeah, they do, They do and that.
But I, I, I, I've heard a little bit about Travis ETN.
I just thought he had the shoulder injury and then he
returned. But sometimes and sometimes the
NFL teams are they're, they're not at Full disclosure when
they're, when they're telling us about this stuff, right?
But you're right, that thing that's like on the reported, but
had a bit bigger impact than we than we thought.
And and then I, I just want to make sure that we're getting
true comments because I, I like, I like when people comment and I
want to encourage that behavior. I know you had you had a note
here about Swift. Yeah, the the DeAndre Swift, I
mean, he, he got a ton of work and was finally efficient with
it. I'm I'm chalking it up more to
an anomaly. I don't.
I just don't think that to. Me, this is actually what we're
getting here is we're getting actually this is who DeAndre
Swift is. He just plays for the Bears now.
Yeah, like where like he don't he's been doing he's been
driving people nuts with this his entire career were like bad
run, bad run, bad run and then one where he looks incredible
and you're probably getting more the bad runs because it's the
Bears. Like this game doesn't work, but
I think the idea that he he it, it doesn't feel like his
snapshare is going down. Yeah, I'm looking up.
I want to, I want to confirm this before I say it, but I want
to say that his long run here that made-up for.
Yeah, a lot of. Yeah, he had the the big run.
Yeah, it was a 36 yard TD and the hole was absolutely like
there was just nothing but green grass like it, it was a a gaping
hole. So you know, we we talk about
like rush yards over expected. Now the the rush yards over
expected model is not gonna say like, oh, he had 36 yards to go
between here and the end zone. Yeah, we should expect 36 yards.
But I mean, in the mental model, we could go ahead and call it
like a nice 18 expected yards 'cause it was.
So it was an enormous hole. But I mean, yes, he's he's doing
the stuff that he's done at every stop of his career where
he's a low success rate guy, but he can hit the home run.
He's like, he's like blind Kenneth Walker, you know?
Right. So that's pretty fair.
I guess against against Carolina, like sure, you could
do worse, but like just know that it's squarely in his range
to have like 14 carries for 21 yards, you know, and no
touchdowns. That's just.
Right. Fully agree.
OK, so Joe, the Joe Mixon role, right, right in the range of
Josh Jacobs or Shaun White, like pretty good roles that we're
excited about. And so with Joe Mixon, if you
were playing DFS this Sunday, you know, I'm I'm the late news
about is Joe Mixon in? Is he going to be out?
Joe Mixon's ruled out. Cam Akers immediately becomes
one of the best plays on the slate, projecting incredibly.
You know it. It's news happening within less
than an hour prior to lock so. The field did not adjust enough.
Cam Akers came in pretty low owned for the value that he was.
He was extremely cheap for the workload that he was going to be
getting and it couldn't have mattered any less because Cam
Akers absolutely stinks out loud.
And I, I just, I kind of wish I, I, I definitely played a good
chunk of Cam Akers on Sunday. I wish I had just stuck more
strongly to my prior during this offseason when we saw the Cam
Akers in pre season. That's getting people messaging
me asking me why is it Cam Akers higher in the leg up basketball
rankings. And I kept replying because we
just watched him like deke a bunch of insurance salesman out
here, you know in a in a third pre season game like why do we
care? And I I should have stuck
strongly to that prior because that was accurate.
Cam Akers stinks this. Is a true committee too.
We're at last game. So just just so Cam makers of
the useful snapshirt routes plus rush attempts, Cam makers 32%
they're going to wall a 32% JJ Taylor 18% like just became a
true, true committee. So like, I I, I don't I don't
think Akers is even rosterable anymore.
If. He's not.
Yeah. The, the value in this offense
is in the consolidation. I mean, if there's anyone other
than Joe Mixon that you're playing an absolute pinch when
you're like, Oh my God, I, I, I need anyone.
You would play dare because he's the back, right?
But that's only in PPR and only. True desperation.
I could see myself playing Dare is I'm in a managed league where
the Texans are playing on Monday night and I thought I was going
to have Joe Mixon and he's ruled out and then go pick up Dare
Kumwale and play him. So basically just don't don't
fall for the Acres trap anymore. The value in this backfield is
in the consolidation of of Joe Mixon, like being able to get a
lot of the work. So I'm actually, I'm interested
in Joe Mixon this week. It's against the Bills.
So, you know, not not the easiest match up in the world,
but I just think that if we do see him back and he's healthy
and he gets all of this work, he's underpriced for the amount
of work that he's gonna get. You're talking about Showdown?
No, no, no. He's on the main slate.
Oh, OK, OK, sorry. In my head, you'd said Monday,
so I I was confused. OK, main slate.
That makes sense. I'm sorry.
Yeah. Yeah.
Now we we finally have our explanation on on Swift.
He was angry during practice. So therefore he that's why he
took that completely blocked run to the house.
Yeah, have we? Have we considered that maybe
DeAndre SO should just be mad all the time?
Right. Yeah, OK.
Want to want to move through we we went through a couple of
these guys already who might lose some work, but man, Rashad
White is this. Buried, absolutely buried.
Yeah. I, I, I think it's pretty high
profile that, that Bucky Irving is the RB1 now and for the
Bucks. But I I guess we should note it.
Yeah, last last one on this chart, then we can move on to
the efficiency charts. Charbonnay's role with Kenneth
Walker healthy. I mean, Kenneth Walker delivers
an absolute incredible, you know, welcome back performance
last night. If you're playing on the short
slate or showdown and you did not have Kenneth Walker, you did
not win any money. I mean, he had a he had like the
most classic Kenneth Walker goal line touch of all time.
Where the run he's not successful on the run, you know,
does not hit the hole, the hole is is it's not there.
Right. And they did an offensive end.
Hutchinson completely closes it. Not only does he close the hole,
he pushes it back into Swift. And then I'm sorry, Swift into
into Walker. And then Walker is like, that's
OK, I'll just go over here. He's like, this is what I
wanted, this is what I want to do on every play like.
See, coach, I couldn't hit the hole.
Yeah. Kenneth.
Kenneth Walker. True.
Yeah. DeAndre Swift is absolutely
diet. Kenneth Walker.
And I, I mean diet in like the most derogatory way I possibly
could say it. Like, and I, I love DeAndre
Swift coming out as a prospect. Man, I wish.
I wish he was a better player. But he and Kenneth Walker have
the same issues where they just cannot read the law for whatever
reason. But Kenneth Walker delivers the
explosive plays frequently enough that it's worth the
headache. Yeah.
He's so electric. I mean, dude, Charbenet looked
great too though. Like I, I don't know if you saw
there was a really, really good run where it was well blocked.
There's a there's a good hole that you know, one where DeAndre
Swift would still probably be able to find it, but Charbonnet
gets through and then after contact just keeps driving,
turns what probably should have been like a six yard gain into a
12 yard gain, just like, oh. Baby, I mean, he drove his feet
on contact. He didn't know the coach has
shown that film like, oh, he's slowing it down, like showing
him chop those. Feet look at this effort.
But I mean, like Charbonnet is is the archetype of back that
you just know that coaches love. Like he's able to do all all the
stuff. He's big, he's running.
Right, I can call every play in my playbook when this guy is on
the field and I don't have to feel.
Dumb looking good in the passing game too.
Also like, yeah. It does feel like the stand
alone role. So he got 8.6 expected points
and 26% useful kind of snap share between rush attempts and
routes. And then the other piece as well
is I think the biggest thing in his favor.
So he had he had 16% pass block, so 16% of team plays he was a
pass blocker and just 5% for Kenneth Walker.
So it seems that they trust him as the pass blocker more.
So he's like discount Rashad White or like discount?
Same quality by week 10 as Rashad White.
Same role, just much much cheaper.
He's a, he's a much better rusher than Rashad White, too.
And then I think rumors of of Charbonnet's like athleticism,
like poor athleticism have been greatly exaggerated because
there were a couple plays I saw where so they have him on this
little outlet route, right? He comes out of the backfield.
He's just sitting there. Gino progresses pretty quickly
through the reads, gets to Charbonnet, checks it down.
Charbonnet beats a guy to the sideline to get the first down.
And like it was, it was ADB that he's beating, you know, like he,
he's not. Slow, like he's not a plotter.
So he he's he's neutral. He's got 8 yards over expected
per next Gen. stats. I mean, that feels pretty right
to me as to who he is as a rusher to be like pretty close
to league average. But like, we were like the vibes
felt like, no, no, this guy is just a bomb, right?
Like he, he's a he's somebody who's league average at
everything. And so like you're, you're going
to get production from him. Yeah, the so he's a guy where
you've got the the small stand alone role, you know, if you're
A0RB roster and you need to plug and play someone, you can if you
get a really negative game script, he's going to benefit
substantially because he's the guy that they want to use more
on the passing down stuff and more for pass blocking.
And then of course you have the incredible contingent upside,
which you've already seen get realized with the Kenneth Walker
injury where Charbenet just consolidate everything.
It it's, you know, like we think Joe Mixon's a consolidator.
No, Zach Charbenet is the true consolidator baby.
He is the consolidator to end all consolidators.
So just anyway, you're the value of Charbonnet obviously
decreases with Walker back, but it it certainly doesn't go to
zero. I I still feel really good about
having Charbonnet on a roster. Yeah, yeah, I I feel a lot
better about 50% sharps than I did have to kick off.
All right, let's let's go to the backups chart.
I don't think I had any notes here.
Oh, I guess we could talk about Hunter Lipke leading the Cowboys
backfield in snaps. So I think some of this is like
is like misleading because like obviously a lot of this is is
run blocking. Yeah, it's it's it's a fullback.
It's it's legit. The grey is like mostly fullback
role. Right, right.
He's got like he's got a honestly, he's got similar role
to some IGP Ryan and as as a the actual ball carrier or, or
target and, and and and then he he has a full back role as well.
He's he's Cowboys, Daria Goombawali plus Carson Steele.
So it's not great, right? Honestly, what it is is it's a
thorn in the side for for Rico Dowdle, which is probably just
an indictment on Rico Dowdle that he can't earn more.
But I just, I think that what you're going to get from this
backfield is is mostly floor with not great ceiling this
season. Just kind of like there's no one
usable outside of Dowdle and Dowdle is more of just like a
floor play just fine for what you paid for him.
You you obviously were hoping for the ceiling.
So I, I don't really think there's a path to the ceiling
being realized through talent for Rico Dowdle after four
weeks, because the Hunter Lipke snaps are, are a pretty major
indictment of, of that, you know, talent case for Rico
Dowdle. So I think you're only out to
Rico Dowdle being a smash is the Cowboys offense absolutely
begins cooking because Rico Dowdle does get the goal line
stuff. He gets the short yardage stuff.
And then they they designed a screen for him inside the Green
Zone or in the red zone, and he converts that into a touchdown.
But yeah, I think you're good to know.
Yeah. Path for Rico Dowdle is Cowboys
have to get a lot better. And they don't show signs of
doing that. So maybe you got to wait for the
Cowboys bye week again. Maybe they'll figure it out
after a bye. Yeah, yeah, maybe they'll dial
it up to CDLM again and that'll work in magic.
CDLM needs to be on pace for 250 targets for that offense to be
at all functional. Right.
And so we just had the Snapchat and now we're looking at
expected points and efficiency. So the way I think about the
Snapchat is that it helps you see the underlying stuff.
It doesn't always translate into expected points, but like over
time it should. It's like the underlying, It's
like the, it's almost like the peripheral stuff.
And whereas this is like, OK, who actually, who actually did
get the target? Who actually did get the curse?
And then you also have the bubble, which shows who's been
efficient and who has not. And did you have any notes on
this? Yeah, for for this one, we
talked about a lot of these guys already.
I won't highlight one that we didn't mention here yet.
And he kind of falls in the category of guys were concerned
might lose some work due to efficiency or or some of the
other, you know smaller stuff that we've noticed from a single
game. I mean, look at the size of Naji
Harris's bubble. He is right on that borderline
between the 1510 to 15 expected fantasy points and 15 to 20
expected fantasy points, right where Draco's mouse cursor is.
So he's getting a ton of opportunity.
The problem is he stinks out loud.
So the Jalen Warren thesis is actually looking pretty alive.
You just need Jalen Warren to get healthy.
I mean, if if Jalen Warren is able to get the usage that Naji
Harris is getting right now, which we already kind of saw
signs of of that beginning to trend prior to him, you know,
missing time due to injury. But he was already getting more
snaps than Naji and getting more opportunities than Naji in the
first half of the game that he ended up leaving.
And I I think that the team is realizing like, yeah, this is
this Naji experiment is done. I mean, Cordero Patterson was
looking like the better back, which Yikes.
So, so Naji, if you've got Naji and have any way to move him for
anything in like a a normal redraft league, like do it now
'cause I don't think there's very much value there.
It what's here's a here's a question for you.
Naji Harris is just higher volume.
Rico Dowdle, True or False? Is that fair to Rico Dowdle?
Let's go to the Let's go to the other chart real quick.
Look at Rico's efficiency. No, it's not fair to Rico
Dowdle. Yeah, Rico Dowdle would be much
more productive with the Naji Harris volume that looks like
he's right there next to Taji Spears.
Taji, Right? Yeah.
Rico Dowdle, Same player. Who knew?
So Rico Dowdle, he's probably like NFL average efficiency.
Naji is just true true utter dog shit.
And that's that is I mean Rico Dowdle barely missed the cut
last year for the Rushard's over expected stuff.
He was like 1 carry two light. But Pat Karain, you know,
working the the backroom deals was able to get the Rico Dowdle
efficiency numbers and found that he was basically exactly
break even. I think he was like minus single
digit rush yards over expected last year on like 99 attempts or
something like that. And so he he seems pretty league
average. Naji definitely not league
average other guys that we can see on this chart that are so in
that. I just just want to point out
something that I know it's Breece Hall.
Yeah, he's looking like pretty inefficient.
Well, this, I mean, this game was really this, this last game,
he, he looked not great as a rusher this last game.
That was why I was a little concerned.
Yeah. But like, I, I believe so
strongly in the talent thesis for Breece that I, I'm willing
to just talk about this game. But yeah, like, I, I don't want
to just be biased and be like, oh, well, that's my guy.
So it doesn't matter. But like that, there's a there's
a reason why I came around to, I think you and I are pretty
aligned now on how we feel about Breece as a player.
Why I think right, you were a little more concerned than I
was. And I've I've come around and
I've seen a light year ago. Well, I, yeah, I the only, the
only thing I, I, I, I want to point out is like I, I would
expect Breece Hall to be like efficient over the, over the
course of the year. I I agree, yeah.
I, I mean, I, I still full, you know, wholeheartedly believe
that he is the most talented back in the league.
So I, I, you know, I expect him to be fine.
I just think Braylon Allen is also a top five most talented
back in the league. So right Troubling for.
For him, yeah, yeah, yeah. And and and I'm I'm what you
call it. I'm not a I'm more talking about
the efficiency piece where like I think, I think you should
expect when we get 65% of like a pie that's smaller than we
sorry, the 65% is smaller, but the pie is, is probably pretty
large. But the fact that he's been
really inefficient, I think we should expect him to be
efficient. And so for there to be much,
much better Breeze holidays, yeah, than we've been getting.
Yeah, Well, well, put. Going going back to some of the
guys that we think might have some fragility in their role
going forward just due to poor efficiency.
I mean, Samir White, but he never really has had much of A
role to begin with. You can see the size of his
little bubble there. Josh Jacobs, who we already
talked about, and Rashad White, who we already talked about.
So yeah, bad, bad season. To have the last name as White
and be an NFL running back doesn't seem great for those
guys. Yeah.
We, we, we spent time on that, on running back.
Yeah, I think, I think we're going to move.
On here. So this is our tight end
utilization and efficiency chart.
So we're focusing on the starters here and because tight
end, it's such a team driven position, we like the team has
to decide that yes, this guy is gonna run most of the rats.
We're not gonna have a committee of tight ends and then we're
gonna make this act. We're gonna treat this guy like
a down the field receiver. It's not just gonna be short
stuff. And so that's why we look at
percentage of team drop backs. That's why we look at a dot
target spread run and and one thing that I thought was
interesting and I I Sam chairman had a really funny tweet about
it. Whereas like unprecedented
government aid to Travis Kelsey drafters in the in the in the
former Rashi Rice injury where like he actually had like Travis
Kelsey type usage last week. Yeah, No, that's a, that's a
really good point. Yeah, I, I guess that is, you
know, the the lifeline you needed if you drafted Travis
Kelsey. I had. 94% routes, 28% targets
per run 8.9 A dot. Man, it is.
It's so crazy to me that Rashi Rice was just able to fully cock
Travis Kelsey though. Like, right.
I don't know if I mean, it says something.
I'm not sure if it's saying more about how good Rushy Rice was or
how much how diminished Travis Kelce is, you know, compared to
the former version of himself. The truth is probably somewhere
in between. I think Rushy Rice pretty good.
I think Travis Kelce is probably a slightly diminished version of
himself. But yeah, definitely a bailout
for Kelsey. The I had I had one note, 1 main
note here on the tight end chart.
I'm just going to read it as it's written here.
So I teared the tight ends out. It's Jake Ferguson, Trey
McBride, Brock Bowers, and that's in no particular order.
Tear break Kittle, La Porta, tear break Dalton Kincaid,
Dallas Codder, tear break 50 feet of shit.
Every other tight end. That's, that's how it feels this
year. I, I think we just so I don't
know, have you had a chance to, to read stealing signals yet?
Because Gretsch had a really interesting piece.
No, no, no, I haven't. So not to not to like just
regurgitate stealing signals, but I thought this was so
poignant and and well thought through that I want to share a
little bit of it. But it was explaining why tight
end, you know, for the whole landscape of tight end is
experiencing this, this major production decrease and very
contrary to what we were expecting based on the talent
level of some of these tight ends that we have right now as
pass catchers. And the to to really summarize
something that is definitely worth the full read.
It's it just comes down to the archetype of defender that is
useful now in the NFL is different.
So like for linebackers, historically, you would have
these larger bodied guys that were more geared towards run
stopping and then they would get assigned coverage on tight ends
occasionally. And that was why that whole
tight end mismatch thing existed, right?
You had these tight ends who were much better athletes, you
know, much faster than these big bulky linebackers and you're
getting need to run routes on these guys and it was just an
absolute personnel mismatch. Well, now the whole league has
shifted to more of a passing league and so you're getting
these smaller, faster, much more competent and coverage
linebackers and it's making the tight end mismatch thing just
not like Kyle Pitts 5-10 years ago probably would have been
absolutely destroying the game. But now Kyle Pitts is slow like
compared to the guys that are covering Kyle Pitts.
Like yeah, this guy is nothing special.
He's a sub athlete compared to these guys so.
I think and also there's a difference between not to get
too Football League, but there's a difference between a
linebacker who's doing their 2 foot, 2 step run first, then
pass to a linebacker who's like OK, I gotta win my coverage and
then we'll think about the run like that.
That makes a big, big difference.
Yeah, yeah. But anyway, I, I thought it was
really insightful. If you have not read Stealing
Signals yet or for whatever reason you're not subscribed to
ceiling signals, I would definitely recommend it.
It, it was a very enlightening way to think about the trend
that we're seeing across the league so far.
But yeah, how? I mean, do you do you agree with
those tight end tiers in general, Draco?
And yeah, yeah, seems pretty fair.
Seems pretty fair. I, I did like that last week and
Laporta, he got back up to a 21% and target per at run, his A dot
was was -1.3. And so that, that feels a lot
more encouraging than like his full season target per at run is
like 9%, like 20% is probably a lot closer to what what we
should expect over the over the full year.
So that was encouraging even even if I, I don't think we got
like an amazing game from LaPorte, but still still
encouraging after like a pretty purse start.
I saw somebody mentioned so Brock Bowers with the, the quote
UN quote injuries. He had an 81% route share last
week, but just a 14% target for a run.
Somebody said that, and I think this was Sam Sherman again, and
that he was doing a lot of like chip off the line and then and
then run a yeah, run a route. And I, I do wonder if that was
because Michael Meyer was out. And that's kind of the Michael
Meyer thing. And so hopefully Michael Meyer
makes a business decision to to play on when he hasn't done
anything in the league yet. Yeah, pretty, pretty funny.
I mean, I was smashed. I was jamming Brock Bowers in
last week. I was thinking, oh, man, Michael
Meyer out, Devante Adams out. Brock Bowers is about to get
100% of snaps. Like he's going to be feasting.
It turns out Michael Meyer out might actually be a bad thing
for Brock Bowers because they like using both tight ends and
just having one of them be more of like an extra lineman.
So yeah, I'm not, I'm not very worried about Brock Bowers at
all. I think he's still, you know,
absolutely belongs in the tier one of tight ends.
Very, very strong chance to be tight end one rest of the
season. The guy who is the here here's
some dog bowl and and underdog BR go.
Go. Ahead.
Actually, the guy who's the most mispriced by like round two
rounds right now is Trey McBride.
He just has the questionable tag because of the concussion.
People are like, Oh, I don't know, but it's it's against the
49ers. It's going to be a high game
total like the the 49ers and Cardinals when, when they've
played in, you know, recent years have have been a very fun
game. So I, I would, I'd be jamming
Trey McBride before he gets cleared from concussion protocol
and before projections come out right now in my, I just did my,
my rankings for him just really based on, you know, going
through production and everything and not not making
any projections based rankings. Just purely like looking at
what's happened so far this season and utilization, things
like that. And I have McBride in the first
round for this week for a dog bowl, So 1212 man drafts and he,
you can get him at like the 2-3 turn right now.
So he feels like a pretty strong click currently that.
You don't. You don't have to talk me into
into Trey McBride. What happened with DALT?
I'm seeing that Dalton Kincaid. So he had just a 59% route share
last week. He did have a 32% target sprout
run. So like low routes and but the
routes he was running, he was getting targeted the high
amount. And I didn't see anything about
an injury for him or anything like that, that that doesn't
feel great. Nope, it's not.
It's. I mean, it's what that's part of
why I was concerned about him because they really seem to want
to use both him and Knox. The the stuff that is, is
bullish for Kincaid is that, you know, really high targets per
outrun when he is on the field. They are, they're, they're doing
the scheme Dalton Kincaid stuff. They run through the air to
Dalton Kincaid often and in in fact, this week would be a week
where I would would be really into it because they're playing
against the Texans who have a really, really strong defensive
line, pretty, pretty good against the run.
They're they have Khalil Shakur on an injury report currently
and I'm it sounds like he'll probably be able to play, but
Khalil Shakur is the number one target earner outside of Dalton
Kincaid on this offense. So I'm thinking if Shakur is it
all banged up and it's going to be harder for them to run than
usual than against an an average opponent.
And we know that they want to run.
I think you could get a lot of this Dalton Kincaid run through
the air nonsense that they want to do.
And even if he's only getting this 59% of snaps, tight end is
so bad that it's probably still pretty good.
Do do you think that some of the the snap stuff there is because
he's not much of A blocker? Yeah.
And then as they focus on the run, like I was like, OK, sorry
but this isn't your play. And this is one thing that
Karain has noted in his research on tight ends is that what you
actually want for the best fantasy outcomes for tight ends
is you want guys that are really good blockers as well.
And they will have to be elite blockers, but they need to be
competent blockers to where they're not losing snaps for it.
Because just like coaches want running backs that can do
everything, so you're not tipping your hand based on what
running back is, coaches also want tight ends that can do
everything. So again, you're not tipping
your hand by who's in the game because right now when Dalton
Kincaid comes in the game, teams know they're probably throwing
to this guy, right? It's it's obvious.
But when you get a, a tight end like Jake Ferguson, for example,
who is a pretty decent blocker, he's on the field a lot.
He has an extremely high play action participation rate, which
is a metric that Karen coined paper.
And that is how you really manufacture touchdowns at the
tight end position. Is this play action predation
rate? You basically want a guy who's
going to be out there when the team is running all of their
play action plays because tight ends can get a disproportionate
touchdowns coming from those plays.
When you're in close on the goal line and you run that play
action, all of a sudden the tight end has a chance for a.
High value, it's a it's a line back.
If they're covered by a linebacker, they have a bigger
run fit responsibility than than a defensive back, so they have
to honor that play action a lot more.
So overall, that's pretty concerning for Dalton Kincaid.
But the good news for Dalton Kincaid is almost every other
tight end sucks out loud. So it doesn't matter that he's
failing on his thesis as well. He's still I, I, I.
Still prefer Dalton Kincaid to American countries right now.
Yeah, like going away and, and, and you prefer him to Kyle
Pitts. And like, I definitely George
Kittle to Dalton Kincaid. But like in, in hindsight, like
if I was allowed to trade all my Kyle pitchers for Dalton
Kincaid, I'd do it at a heartbeat.
You know, like I, I'm, I'm very glad that I kind of split
exposure evenly between those guys.
But man, yeah, the, the tight end position as a whole is just
really ugly. The only other guy that I really
wanted to talk about it, tight end, is actually on the next
chart. Well, I, I, I, I do want to
mention, so Co, Co commit last week up to 77% at route share.
And, and so he, he, he's going to, he's going to move up into,
into kind of this section of the chart.
And so the, the, the silliness with Gerald Everett.
I, I think, I think that's done now.
Yeah, the only problem is that Shane Waldron refuses to call
pass plays. Now the Bears had, I believe it
was a league low pass attempts this last week.
So that's that's great. You love to see that.
You know, you spent the one O 1 on a generational quarterback
talent who flashed that he could be really good, you know, in in
the previous week. And then you go out and you
barely throw it all and you almost lose a game that you
should have been winning handily.
But yeah, who who knows? So the problem with all the
Bears pass catchers if you're having to choose when to start
them is that you're relying on Shane Waldron to let them pass
and do do intelligent things. And then even when they are
passing, the scheme is so dog shit that they're having it
over. It just, it's required
tremendous individual talent from from these players to over.
If you if you get a week, if you get a week though, and like we
had and I think it was week three, yeah, where you got the
50 drop back week, then that's how you get the Co comet smash.
Right. And he's live for that now in a
way that he wasn't before. Yes, one, 100%, yeah, I'm not
not trying to bury Comet. I'm more so just wanting to
throw a little cold water on the tank.
Yeah, that the Bears are just it makes it really difficult to
know when to start the guy. So like in any kind of random
league, I'm just like throwing out my hands having to start any
bears. It's, it's really tough because
here's the difference in a managed league, I'm really, I
really, really care about like the floor and the median
outcome, right? And, and so where the Bears can
let the bottom totally drop out on me, where #1 they could just
have 22 pass attempts in a game. And #2 even if they do have 50
pass attempts, there's a chance the scheme was just so pissed
poor that I actually still don't get home.
Now we saw it get home in week 3.
But I I don't think it's a stretch to say that it's such a
poorly designed offense that you could have 50 attempts and not
get home. And so that's really painful for
a managed league in AGPP where it's like, whatever, I'm losing
this money anyway when I enter AGPP and then when I get the
hit, I win all the money. I think the Bears will probably
consistently be be relatively low owned as a team to stack.
Right. So like Dalton Kincaid, I'm just
looking at an underdog. So Dalton Kincaid tight end to
21.2 ADP and then you have cold commit at 35 tight end 7.
Like I'm picking on Dalton Kincaid there, but that can
certainly hit in a way that you want it to and, and you can you,
you, you can certainly win with that.
The the ceiling is in a single week.
Don't you think the ceiling for coal combat is higher than
Dalton Kincaid? Oh, 100%?
Yeah, 100%. So so depressing man.
Oh my God, I just. Well I actually have decent coal
combat bags so I'm not depressed by that at all.
No, no, I mean I, I do as well. It's just depressing that like,
he could be so good. Like I'm, I'm depressed that
Shane Waldron has a job. That's what I'm depressed about.
It is certainly disappointing. I'm pretty sure a 12 year old
with a Madden, you know, a 12 year old who's reasonably
experienced at Madden with an Xbox controller probably
outcalled Shane Waldron. Right, right.
So you, you had mentioned that there was a tight end on the on
the backup chart here, I think there was.
Was it Eric all? It is Eric all.
So this is the first week where we saw Gesicki get, you know,
out targeted by him. It was like closer to oh,
Gesicki gets some and Eric all gets some.
This week. Eric all out targets him.
Now, to be to be fair to Gesicki, if you watched every
snap of this game, there was a play, they're on the goal line,
they have Jamar chase and Burrow just only has eyes for chase on
this play. And it's a route that that takes
like a little bit of time to I, I honestly, I don't, you know,
I, I'm not a not a ball mower to this level.
But I would think from watching this play that it's the kind of
thing where you probably could have made a read prior to
locking on the chase, because the Kasiki route is just like a
quickslant quickslant. And he beat his man.
He's wide open in the end zone. It's just an easy pitch and
catch. Like it's a touchdown. 95% of
the time Burrow throws it. You know, the other 5% of the
time it's because Kasiki drops it, right?
But he doesn't, he doesn't see it at all.
And it's it's on the same side of the field as Chase.
It was really baffling to me how it got missed, but I would just
guess he's just locked onto chase.
But to my end, I I would think that's the kind of thing where
you're you're already looking at that side of the field.
Look at the quick slant and see if that's there and take the
free touchdown on the time zone. It is.
But then he he holds onto the ball, you know, throws it to
chase. Right, it sounds, it sounds like
you would have won some money if at Kasiki had a.
Copy No, no, no. I didn't even have Kasiki.
I'm, I'm just, I'm just teasing. I I do think if you're looking
at Kasiki's like overall, so like over the first four weeks,
he's at 51% route share, which I guess in this new tight end
landscape, maybe plays it when you combine it with a 25%
targets per out run 7.6 A dot. And it's, it's, it's not great,
but it's probably like it's probably startable in some in
desperation situations. And the thing, the thing that I
have a lot of hesitations about with Eric all is so you do have
you have this incredible targets per out run of 40%.
However, it's on AM so that's 40% last week and I'll use the
full season and the last week doesn't change this.
It's on 30 a 30% route rate. And then the A dot is like 2.2.
Like it's just like when he's on the field, they seem to like
doing load A dot throws to Eric all but he's not on the field
that much. So like to me, like it's it's
incredible for him that he's like there's a late rookie
coming off the ACL terror that he's doing this.
It's that's incredible. But the targets that you're
getting here don't seem that valuable.
Like you really you need to add a new, a completely new element
to that role for Eric all to be playable to me.
Yeah, that's that's, I agree with that analysis.
And honestly, I would think that for both of these guys, as we
have T Higgins, you know more and more back off of his injury,
right? Right.
And and then you see 6% target run for Kasiki last week, maybe
the the two receivers being full go had a lot to do with that.
Yeah. And I think with Chase Brown
emerging more, I think the Chase Brown breakout takes away some
there as well. So I think both of these tight
ends become pretty much entirely uninteresting for fantasy except
on really short slate and showdown type stuff.
But like Eric all if he is a really low priced guy on a
Bengal showdown slate in the future, probably an elite play
and he's a he's a good blocker. If you watch the game, the
announcers could not stop raving about what a massive hole Eric
all opened up on a running play. They're like he just Eric all
absolutely blew the hole wide open this play.
So, you know, maybe maybe you get I'm.
Really happy. I'm really happy that he gave
that. Great block.
Yeah, I mean, maybe you get Eric all as one of these high paper
tight ends, you know, high play action participation.
Yeah, as the season goes on so he can scam some, be useful and
short slate stuff. All right, that's enough of this
putrid fantasy position. Let's get to wide receiver.
So we've got wide receiver opportunity versus fantasy
points. So we've got weighted targets
per at run, which is and targets per at run, but it weighs down
the field targets more heavily than than sure, A dot stuff.
And then we plot that against fantasy points and the dots are
color-coded to to route share and and we split this chart open
the tree. These are just the guys between
85% and 100% right share. Yep.
OK. So I want to go back to a
conversation we had earlier. We talked about, you know, do.
You remember that? We talked about who the wide
receiver one was and you were firmly Justin Jefferson over
everyone. So there there's five guys that
I think can make a case to be the wide receiver one.
It's Justin Jefferson, who I think is the odds on favorite
right now. It's Nick Collins, it's Malik
Neighbors, it's Jamar Chase who's over here at the 40%
weighted targets per route run, which I I think is going to
change as we progress. And then it's the guy on the
next chart of CD Lamb who's got a a slightly lower route to run
rate current currently, excuse me, just because of some weird
game script stuff where the Cowboys were either blowing out
or being blown out. What a what a funny team man.
Just kick the shit out of the shitty teams and get absolutely
embarrassed by even the borderline competent teams.
What a pathetic organization. But anyway, these these wide
receivers, this Malik Neighbors, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson,
I mean, looking absolutely incredible.
The Malik Neighbors spot is really interesting to me
actually, because he's coming off the concussion, but it's a
longer week. So typically what we've seen in
this new concussion protocol era is you miss a week.
If you get concussed, you miss a week typically, but it's the
longer week. So he's got 10 days.
So and it, I mean, you don't know how bad a concussion is.
It's, it's one of those injuries where you truly cannot tell by
looking at the hit. Like it's very deceptive stuff
that looks pretty minor can actually be a very serious
concussion and vice versa. So there's no way to judge how
bad the concussion was. Didn't look that bad to me.
But again, we don't know. But if Malik neighbors the the
crazy thing is, and and really this is the most applicable to
like dog bowl and battle Royale drafts where he's being drafted
right now and you have to decide is he playing or is he not
playing right? If he's not playing, then when,
because you get the swap on underdog.
And I'm I'm framing this more through dog bowl 'cause that's
the majority of what I do. I don't play the six person
battle Royale drafts on underdog.
I only do the 12 man for the short slate stuff, but in the 12
man drafts he's probably a pretty good pick at the end of
the fourth round where you're really not sacrificing a ton if
you lose him if he's ruled out and you have to swap to someone.
So I think fourth round is reasonable ish for him right
now, but then you have to build in the probability that he plays
and where he would go if he plays and if he plays, he's
probably a top five pick this week.
So it's really interesting. I wanted to get your thoughts on
it. Draco, do you think you just
Yolo it on Malik neighbors and just just start ripping it so
you're. Saying he's a fourth round pick
and in 12 man drafts. He doesn't go in the fourth
round though right now he go, he goes earlier than that.
So it's it's. Hard.
You have a third round pick like. 2nd or or third OK.
And so you're, you're, you're having to take them in the first
36 picks. So like, that's where like the
players are still really going to project really, really well.
And, and so if he's out, then if he's out, then you, you, you
light swap. But it's somebody who projects
much, much worse than the 37th best projection.
And am I? Am I framing that correctly?
Yeah, and I would, I guess I would say as I think through it
out loud here, Yeah, his ADP is 14.2 right now.
So he's he's going high. He's, you know, you got to take,
OK, take Malik neighbors. You're passing on Stephon Diggs,
you're passing on George Kittle, passing on Kenneth Walker,
you're passing on Jayden Daniels, Dalton Kincaid, Trey
McBride, like. Then it's really a risk
tolerance thing. So when you're talking about the
dog bowl, the dog bowl is literally winners take, all
right, yeah, it's top win the you win, OK, you win the slate
or you kick rocks, right? And so it's almost like the top
20% of outcomes are the only thing that mattered there.
And so I think to me that that honestly seems fine.
And it's more of a risk tolerance thing.
I see some like sort of analysis here where the average days
missed from a concussion is like 8 days and you got 10 days here.
And it to me that's like a true risk tolerance thing where like
you can jam it and then you get it in real good or like then
you're late swapping and like you just dropped it a bunch of
dead dog bowl teams like. It Yeah.
I I think it's acceptable way to play, just just understand the
risk tolerance. Yeah, I think as I think through
it a little bit more, one thing that I want to consider is
people are, man, I didn't draft a ton of dog bowls last year
before like projections are out. I'd, I'd sprinkle a few in just
to kind of like get a, get the lay of the land.
These last two weeks I've been drafting more before projections
have come out because last week I, I did it a lot because I had
a, a couple decent reads that I, I wanted to get ahead of the
market on. And I, I was right on the like
with George Kittle. He, he screamed up a bunch after
he got ruled in right. Debo Samuel.
There are a couple spots like that.
And so doing them last week kind of illuminated to me how bad the
market is without projections. Like there's people that don't
know what the fuck they're doing respectfully, and they're just
doing stuff that doesn't make any sense in any, in any format.
There's no no justification for players being selected where
they're going. And so I think drafting before
projections are out is actually pretty good.
And so because of that, you end up with players going undrafted,
like Josh Downs, for example, goes undrafted sometimes and
he's one where if I have to swap from Malik Neighbors to Josh
Downs, of course I'm losing projection.
But later in the week, Josh Downs will be drafted 100% of
the time because he's going to project pretty good.
You know, like other guys that like right now go undrafted or
go really late, like Romeo Dobbs.
Like, yeah, he's definitely the less sexy version, you know, or
less sexy option between him and Dontavie on Wix.
But he shouldn't go undrafted, but he does right now.
And so it's like getting the swap into Romeo Dobbs in the
Packers offense where there's no Christian Watson.
And so, you know, you're going to have this condensed.
It's these three guys now. Finally, it's not like going to
be this rotational thing against a really good match up for the
Rams, like against the Rams like OK, yeah, that's a pretty good
swap. So you have better swap options.
Earlier in the week, Keenan Allen, you know, undrafted
against Carolina and we just talked about like how the Bears,
yeah, they're a pain in the ass to start in a managed league,
but where you like you just said, you only care about the
ceiling. So Keenan Allen against Carolina
like could be a pretty, pretty interesting pot and you can just
swap for free to that. So I think the way to play it is
if you're willing to be risk on you hit the Malik neighbors
stuff kind of aggressive right now.
Maybe not like whole hog into it because you might get news that
he's like doubtful or like really questionable in in the
middle of the week and then you can truly get him for free.
But I think just to like stave off the outcomes where you know,
he's he oh, it's very likely he plays.
He's he's going to clear concussion protocol, he's going
to play and then his price just rockets up even more than it
already is. Right.
Every time he step, he passes a new step in the in the in the
process and the protocol, he's going to go up.
Like if he practices on Friday, he's just going to go top five.
Yeah, yeah. Thank you for helping me talk
that out. I just moved him up a bunch in
my room. OK.
Oh, this was a guy that I think is really interesting.
But Rashid Shahid, man, he was a guy during the offseason.
We talked about a lot when we were doing the leg up rankings
that he pops like a guy that should be going much higher.
He he looks like the real deal, but there's just the concern
about the role, like is he a bit player?
Is he just this deep ball merchant?
You know, he's not. He does is a fully functional
NFL receiver, can run all the routes, can win at all depths,
can do it all, and is out targeting Crystal Labe.
You had a 30% targets per run last week.
Yeah, and that maybe that's partially because of the Olave
like late week hamstring strain. If you ask me, it might be a
this this is going to be a really hot take.
And I I almost hate myself for giving it because I really like
Chris Olave. I think he's really good.
I think Rashid Shahid and Chris Olave are one A1B in this
offense. And I think they they have like
different roles where like it, it seems like Shaheed is is more
often the deep guy, whereas like when they need to move the
chains and they're they're trying to Olave, the ball is
going to Olave. There there was a lot of chain
moving stuff here and it's it's also this was not the the first
week where she he'd got some like shorter stuff and
intermediate stuff. He he got it earlier in the
season as well. Like I I was noticing when
watching the Saints. Now granted they they hadn't
passed a ton, but like it was, it was clear that he was not
only exclusively a deep ball merchant.
So, yeah, so he got he got 11 targets this week and versus 5,
four and five. And now that that's a big
increase in Dropbox. And but like you're saying, I
think, are you saying that Shahid is like a legitimate
target at receiver or like I don't think you're trying to
bury Olave, that that's where I'm having a negative reaction
to like the one A1B that's like, no, I think I think Olave is
better. However, Shaheed is clearly very
important to the offense where like, so he's like week 1 he was
73%, right, Right. And then since then, if you
average the two weeks, it's 93%. Yeah.
If you average the targets for a run over the last three weeks,
it's 25%. So like those are you take those
numbers and for like I don't know, top three rounds.
Yeah, I'm just saying Rashid Shahid probably like in
resurrection and I've done 0 resurrection, so I don't know
where he's going. Probably should go in the top
five rounds. Right, right.
As things stand, that he certainly should.
And I mean, I, I see more reason for this to continue than for
the trend to break, because this is what we are looking at all
offseason of like, this guy seems really good.
Like maybe he's just really good.
And then games were like, huh, this guy seems really good.
And he's doing more than just the bit roll that we'd seen him
pigeonholed in the past by a shitty, incompetent offensive
coordinator. So maybe he's just good now that
he has a competent offensive coordinator.
Now granted, his offensive coordinator is still a little
bit boomer. They're just running the ball
too much, but he's designing a functional offense.
Granted, they run too much, but they're at least using motion
and play action like someone who knows how the game is played.
So anyway, nothing negative about Chris Olave, just very
bullish about Rashid Shaheed. And man, I wish this offense
threw more. I wish that they.
Threw more right, Right. OK.
Can I hit you with a really gross one?
OK. What if I told you that I wanna
play Courtland Sutton this week and I think it's a good positive
regression spot for him? Are you saying are you
suggesting that some man, some what you call some vomit stacks
for bone Knicks and week 5 is a good idea?
I think that we might be able to go back and play the tape from
was it week one that I said. It was week one.
It was week 1. I think we were both talking
about it and you, you, you pointed at week five.
I was like, oh, that might be the week.
You you can play bone Knicks. Because I need, I need to look
this up. 2023 NFL schedule Week 5 because I I swear to God I I'm
pretty sure this was the same I I think week 5 was also the week
that the Texans know. Oh.
When you when you called that, when you, when you called the
the the CJ Stroud that's. What you Yeah, when when you to
Cal went with the Texans triple stack to go absolutely
thermonuclear and ship the Millie Yeah no, it was not week
five last year. Maybe, maybe it was week 4.
Anyway, yeah, I. I'm.
My God, I don't know if I want to.
I mean, that's such a such a hard standard to live up to, you
know, because I, I just absolutely smashed it so hard
last year. But I, I guess, you know, it's,
yeah, it was, it was week four last year.
So week five this year Broncos vomit stacks or the 2023 week 4
Texans vomit stacks. The The, the other thing though,
is I don't think that it's going to be way different than the way
that CJ Stroud got there was like everyone eats.
I think it's hyper concentrated to Cortland Sutton, which is why
I like it. And I think you have the rushing
upside of Bonex and you're against a Raiders team where,
man, you want to talk about a team where the vibes have swung
wildly in the first four weeks of the season?
Like the vibes went from bad to good.
Like remember when the Raiders upset the Ravens how good the
vibes were and then they're. Incredible.
The vibes are like bottom of the basement right now.
The vibes seem bad for the Raiders and they're going
against the Broncos, who might be feeling their oats a little
bit after beating The Jets. I mean, maybe that.
Maybe this is a spot, man. Maybe this is the bow next to
Cortland Sutton. Skinny Stack for all the money.
Yeah, I'm. I mean it, it certainly, Yeah,
it certainly makes sense. All right.
Would you do that in a dog bowl? What if I told you I've already
done it? OK, OK, there's the answer.
And and hang on, what if I told you I've been sniped on it also?
That's funny. Yeah, Nez.
Do you think it would be undrafted?
Oh yeah, Nez is also out there. So Nez, if you're watching this,
I see you're sick ass. You're just as demented as I am
playing Courtland Sutton in Bonex.
Seek help, my friend. I'll, I'll see you in therapy
because I'm going to be there with you.
That's the joke. All right, one, one other guy
that I wanted to get to on this chart was Chris Godwin.
I mean, I heard people saying like, oh, the, the Chris Godwin,
you know, he's running so hot on touchdowns.
And he was, he had at least one touchdown through the first
three weeks of the season. Finally goes without a
touchdown, but my God, is his role not the most consistent
thing in the league here. Here's his target lines for
through the 1st 4 weeks 8899. Like I, I mean, do we just
expect this going forward? Chris Godwin.
It kind of feels like the old Chris Godwin role that we had,
right season. Right.
I think that that just speaks to a very kind of concentrated
offense between him and Evans, which which makes sense.
All right, that was all Chris Cobham moving on to a slightly
less fun guy. Are you worried about Garrett
Wilson? And, you know, did you hear the
press conference comment he made this this week or recently?
He said, oh, when I watch other teams, they like mix it up a
bit. It'd be nice if we could do that
too. Oh no.
Oh, the vibes are starting to be
bad. Oh no.
So that that's a pretty bad vibes comment.
And yeah, like maybe that's something where where we watch
call it we we load up the the right tree for Garrett Wilson
and maybe it that's super gross. Oh.
God, man, I'm, I'm starting to be worried the, the stupid Alan
Lazard stuff just does not seem to be stopping.
Like, I, I don't know, I, I've heard people say like, oh,
there's no way they can keep doing the Alan Lazard thing all
season. I'm worried they might just do
the Alan Lazard thing all season.
Yeah. And yeah, so I'm looking at the
the the route, the route treating it's, it's, it's
certainly not as bad as as what you call it.
The Shane. The Shane Waldron abomination
that I showed you. Yeah, so week week 1, it
actually looks pretty good, like it's pretty varied.
But then by by week 4, this this this This site is hard to use.
Or maybe I'm just a boomer. By week, is it week tree?
Oh, they only pick one If you don't pay for it, they only pick
one one player a week on each team.
That's why it's hard to see. But but by by by week two, it's
just like a couple of cents and go rounds.
Yeah, I'm man, I was like, I wasn't the president of the I'm
not worried about Garrett Wilson fan club, but I was a card
carrying member and I know it. You know what it really is?
It's I, I'm letting this this throughout the tape game get to
me more than I probably should. I'm I'm having trouble.
Squaring it How many targets a game do you think Garrett Wilson
is getting? I think it's like a little north
of set, it's like 7 and change, right?
8 1/2. 8 1/2 OK. So we just talked about the
Chris Godwin target profile where it's like 999, so 8 1/2,
unlike A-Team where I'm pretty sure they're like pass rate over
expected hasn't been like their pass rate has not been high and
they're like so their their pass rate over expected.
OK, so it's two percent, 65% pass rate.
So like 8 1/2 target rate or targets per game.
I get to me, it's like you want to be talking about more than,
oh, my first round pick and gets 8 1/2 targets a game.
But like I there's, there's probably there's probably
something there where this can still work out.
Yeah, no, I I agree with you the.
Jets need Garth Wilson like that.
That offense needs Garth Wilson to go.
So like, it's not going to be like, OK, well, this guy made
the back comment and so we're going to get him out of here.
It's like, OK, how do, how do, how do we make this guy happy
and, and, and make the offense go room?
Yeah, I, I mean, I, yeah, all hope is not lost for me on
Garrett Wilson. I'm just, I'm starting to get a
little worried. It it probably the the week for
like throw the tape out game is probably contributing too much
to that worry because it truly was an atrocious game.
But yeah, I I would I would love to see something soon to just
make me feel a little better. But moving on to someone near
Garrett Wilson on the chart. But I feel like is in a really
positive spot. You also had a pretty good call
on just this offense as a whole. You you mentioned that the
Bengals, you know, and Joe Burrow were, were good
progression candidates a week ago.
And of course, that was a good spot Here.
We get the Ravens, you get T Higgins here.
He's coming in with pretty good weighted targets for route run.
He actually has higher weighted targets for route run than his
teammate Jamar Chase. Granted, he's played less games.
So, you know, small sample stuff.
I would expect that to normalize, but 10 targets last
game like I, I. And then all the almost
touchdowns. Yeah.
That that felt like they were very, very close to being
touchdowns. And you know what I mean, This
is the real analysis that people TuneIn for.
But if you've been paying attention at all this season,
you've noticed that this is the season of Sam Sherman pain.
I mean, it's been pain for a lot of us, but poor Sam had like
20%. George Kittle who is out.
Yeah, Sam's been posting this all over Twitter where he's
just, he's been getting run over by the variance bus this year.
And there could not be a more anti Sam Sherman player than T
Higgins. So I feel like AT Higgins
Eruption would just keep the trend rolling for Sam Sherman
getting kicked in the teeth by variance.
And so that's the thing that's the most compelling to me is
that the universe just have to get Sam Sherman so far this
season. So maybe this is the T Higgins
spot. The the anti Sam Sherman
narrative, but like he, he, he's been running code on touchdowns.
So that that feels like that feels like something where
you're you're you're getting, you're getting the underlying
usage. We think it's a really good spot
and the team it's a high game total and against a pass funnel
and then most people they would tink to primarily play a true
Chase and so you'll get definitely cheaper.
T Higgins I I have to assume T Higgins is like 100% drafted in
dog bowl 12 round 12 team draft. He is.
He's 100% drafted, but he goes like in the fourth round.
I believe I can. I can.
Check so so like that's something where if if it hits
the way it can hit with T Higgins like that, just like
that, that's like that's a got a half guy.
Yeah, he is. He's going the the receiver that
goes right after him is Michael Pittman.
The receiver they go right before him or Terry Mclaurin,
Brian Thomas, DJ Moore, Dontavion Wix.
So definitely, definitely interested in T Higgins this
week. So I think those of you guys who
wanted to touch on in. This, Yeah.
Let's move to the next chart here.
The next I like one. OK, there we go.
So we have Jaden Reed here and obviously incredible and I don't
think we have to spend too much time on him.
We've already talked about Jordan Addison of him being like
this or B2. And if Sam Darnell is going to
continue to crush, then Jordan Addison is going to continue to
crush. So like that's super
interesting. And Brian Thomas, so he, he's
now 75 to 80% red chair with the Jags.
He's got this really strong underlying usage and the Jags
are going to turn it around. They have.
It has to be true, Brian Thomas, right?
Yeah, Brian Thomas looks like the way you want to play this.
Not that Christian Kirk hasn't been getting decent targets.
It's just that like, Christian Kirk is known and Brian Thomas,
number one, he looks very good and #2 he's he's a rookie.
So we still have that unknown unknowable upside for him where
it's like, what could this guy actually be?
And I think, I think the only thing you know for certain about
Brian Thomas is that he's worse than Malik Neighbors.
And so if that's the cap, if the cap is he can't be better than
Malik neighbors because we got to see a lot of those guys
together in college. Well, that's still still leaves
a lot of a lot of meal. A lot of headway.
Yeah, so I'm, I'm very interested in Brian Thomas.
If you if you want to be playing Jags because you get the the
indie match up this week. It kind of seems like this could
be the sneaky get right spot for the Jag.
This is the, you know, Trevor Lawrence come save your job type
week. So maybe the Brian Thomas
eruption spot. I I definitely am interested in
it. Let's see, we we covered most of
those guys. Oh.
Really, I guess Jay Jaylen Waddle is very concerning with
this. Like on their mind usage it's.
It's super concerning, man. I mean, there's so much of it
that's a little hard to parse with Miami because when you look
at all their players, Tyree Kill, Jalen Waddle, Devana Chan,
like all of it looks concerning for for one reason or another.
I mean, right, part of it has to be the quarterback, right?
You're missing to a so. What like Tyreke's, Even though
his his points are down, his usage is is still up there.
Yeah, I just, I think, I mean, we saw in in that first week
with Tua, we saw Waddle go over 100 yards.
He's, he's getting, you know. Right, right.
That's fair. But he also did the, the classic
Jalen Waddle thing where he like left the game for injury halfway
through. So it's, it's a little weird.
I'm, I mean, I'm pretty much all the way off Jalen Waddle until
you get Tua back for it's really hard with Tyreek and a Chan
cause because you don't want to play them.
It just seems so, so bad. But they're both players where
individually they're like the talent level is so high that
it's like any given play. All, all that it takes for these
guys to have an 80 yard touchdown is for one guy in the
wrong spot on the defense to, to fall down.
You know you you need 11 defender to either be in the
right sort of fall down and it's an 80 yard touchdown.
And so the other thing with Tyreek is, so his usage is still
up there because he's still getting the deep shots and
because he's Tyreek, where's I think Waddle's worth a lot more
the intermediate stuff. And like the quarterbacks right
now have just been incapable of working the intermediate.
So. So maybe that that's the
discrepancy that you're kind of hitting on there.
Yeah. Yeah.
And but I, I don't think, I don't think there's too much.
Else here, last quick, super quick note, we can get to the
last chart. Keene and Allen, we talked, we
talked about the bears being like hard to know when to start
them, but Keene and Allen with the the weighted targets for
route run that he's getting, like you said, you're just
basically playing for like, will I get the magical Chicago 50
passing attempts game? I mean, it's so hard to figure
out when that's going to come because normally I would say
when are they going to be big underdogs?
You know, when are they going to be against an opponent that's
really just going to force them to have no option but but to
pass. But I don't even I'm not even
confident that that they would do it there like Shane Waldron
coming out and and intentionally running the ball more and
throwing, you know, a league low number of times this week after
his players like confronted him and said, Hey, we we need to be
more aggressive. We need to do more.
And then he goes and like turns around and does the exact
opposite. I mean, it's a bad at his job
thing and also an ego thing, it seems like.
So I'm just, I'm so it's so hard to predict when you have people
that aren't his decisions aren't who, who knows what leads him to
make the decisions that he makes.
So it's just like impossible to guess when it's going to happen,
which I guess all means it's probably hard for your opponents
to guess when it's going to happen as well.
So Keenan will probably perpetually be a low owned play.
It might just be like a, if you're playing AGPP format
contest, you take your Keenan Allen medicine every week.
Like like this last week I think he was sub 1% owned and I
sprinkled it in some entries coming off the injury and not a
ton. I think I had like 3-3 or 5%.
But it's like that's enough when no one else is playing him.
So I for me personally, I'm probably going to do the take my
Keenan Allen or or Bears pass catcher Colcumnet medicine every
week kind of thing. And it just a small amount.
I'll light a very small amount of money on fire every week
chasing that. OK, I think I'm back.
OK, we can. We can go to the loss chart now.
I think my Internet I had a had a Korean Internet outage.
Yeah, I think you may need to re share your screen because we're
still on the 70 to 85% chart. Oh, no.
All right. Present share screen, great
catch. Thank you.
OK, We're almost across the finish line here.
And so one, one thing that I thought was interesting.
So he doesn't he didn't have the the the route chair to to make
this chart, but Troy Franklin popped in my kind of dashboard
thing as somebody who's getting like a really, he's getting air
yards, he's getting a high, high target run.
He's getting a variation between deep, medium, short targets and
so it hasn't hit yet. So they haven't been able to
make it work. But I think that's that's super
interesting for Franklin and hopefully that kind of develops
and our bags are OK. So do you think it's too gross
to play Troy Franklin this week? It probably is too gross, isn't
it? Yeah, I want it.
In like a large in a large, large field GPP and you're
looking for like the the min price guy to hit and you want to
move off the chalk like I I like I I don't think it's like just a
bad, bad play, but it that's. Super, super contrarian.
So let's see we've got Raiders Broncos is a 1:00 game.
So here you go. Here's here's the GPP bro card
earning play of the week. You start off your morning with
some chalk and then if your chalk fails, you're doing the
late swap to Troy Franklin, the min price wide receiver for the
1:00 games and you just jam in Troy Franklin.
And you know what? Even better?
Leave your quarterback slot open so you can do the full Bonex
Troy Franklin, Courtland Sutton, Full Contrarian Vomit Sack late
swap. There you go, behind, there you
go. Just needs to hit one bomb.
The the last chart is not displaying but there is really
only one note I had for it. Dantavion Wix pops on the.
Chart. I never added it for this.
Oh. There we go.
OK, so Dantavion Wix is clearly popping here.
He's gonna be the worst kept secret in fantasy football this
week. Like I could not imagine a guy
who's gonna catch as much steam as Dantavion Wix is is gonna
get. Oh people are dying, dying for
him to be a a tank. So, so listen here, I'm I'm
going to this is no cold water is being thrown on Dontavion
Wix. I think he's a very solid play.
But you know where no one is going to want to go.
No one's going to want to go to Romeo Dobbs this week because he
is the boring version. You know the boring play here.
He's already been running the routes.
Dontavion Wix is the one that's actually benefiting from the
injury. I just think it's more a bet on,
hey, I think the Packers are good.
I think Jordan Love is good. I think the Rams are terrible.
And I think any of these guys in any given week can score a
touchdown like it can happen. And so it's for me, it's purely
like it's not a talent play. I'm not saying Dobbs is better
than Wix or better than Reed. I think both of them are
probably I think Reed is substantially better than both
of the other guys. I think Wix is probably better
than Dobbs, but I mean Dobbs is yes.
I think Dobbs is probably going to come in pretty low owned.
So anyway, Dobbs is the sneaky pivot off of the really, really
chalk Wicks. OK, I think I'm back.
I, I think you're back as well. That was, that was all I had
though on this chart. Was there anyone else that you
you wanted to talk about Draco? All I said, I don't, I don't and
I don't think it came true is and Dobbs, you're just, you're
just saying that Dobbs is like somewhere between A1 and a $5 AD
in, in unwavers in in FFPC and stuff.
Yeah, I'm more, I'm more looking at Dobbs through the lens of
like single week DFS just because I think you're gonna get
so much on TV on Wix team this week.
OK, OK, yeah, no, that makes sense.
And and we've seen that. We've seen some big, we've seen
some big Dobbs games too. I think I so AD Mitchell kind of
pops here as somebody who's getting a so he's at a 24% tax
for a run on a 21A dot on 40 to 50% routes.
And if, if it's a Flacco week, that could be pretty
interesting. And there was also some pretty
interesting comments where they were like, Oh yeah, he looks
fantastic in practice. Like he, he, he is killing it.
And, and, and we got, we got to convert that to games.
And so I, I, I think he's kind of interesting too.
Yeah, I think that's a good call.
He's he's really interesting. I I think he's the the classic
rookie wide receiver archetype that is gonna come on in the
second-half of the season. We got to get the sneak preview
with the Josh Downs injury, so he got to get some early playing
time and then you've got Alec Pierce.
But like, that's the hurdle for AD Mitchell getting on the
field. And I I think he'll be able to
clear that halfway through the season.
So and and the skill set meshes so nicely with Anthony
Richardson. And if you don't have Anthony
Richardson, I think Joe Flacco's an upgrade to the passing
offense. So yeah, AD Mitchell is 1 where
you know, like if he's somehow on on waivers in a main event or
something, he's definitely worth a stash, right?
Yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure. And pretty strong waiver stash.
I I, I already have them in a bunch of leagues still held the
fate and but yeah, pretty, pretty strong waiver pick up.
So I, I think, I think that's it for us, right?
I think that's it. So thank you for for making it
through. We, we kept this one a little
shorter, under 2 1/2 hours this week.
So quite a short episode for us. Hope, hope that you got
something out of the the analysis this week and we will
look forward to seeing you back here in week 5.
See you everyone.