Hey everybody. Welcome to week 5 of statues.
And we now have four weeks of data on the NFL season so far.
So it's enough to draw some interesting conclusions about
what we've seen. So yeah, excited to break it
down. With all of you today.
Draco. How was your week for preventing
week for just a brutal. Brutal disappointment.
We smashing everything. I won.
I won my home League do. So that's all that matters,
right? Yes, we did.
Monday night. The last Cooper cook 20 yard
catch and then nine yard catch just clawed it right at the end.
There is something about that home League that, you know,
you're paying like $50 for people league.
But something about it, still feels sweeter than the right?
We lost in the main but I won my home League.
Yeah. Yeah, you got to take, I mean
week for was was a time to celebrate small victories
because I did not have a lot of big ones as well.
It was, it was a tough week, one of those weeks where you look at
Red Zone and it's showing the top scores of these position and
it's just, you know, just random players that you don't have on
any. Teams.
So what was that type of wait for me?
My redacted is doing reducted. Exactly.
Cool. Well without further Ado, why
don't we just dive into quarterbacks for this week so
good to me. Yeah, let's do it.
So for for folks, familiar with statue using you'll be familiar
with this chart. For anybody who may be new to
the program, we're going to go through position by position and
look at some of the most important stats to predict
future success at each position. So we started with quarterback
what we're looking at on this chart here for those following
Along on YouTube, we have TD rate here on the y axis and then
adjusted yards per attempt on the x-axis.
And what adjusted yards per attempt is is yards per attempt,
but adjusted for touchdowns interceptions.
So players are throw a lot of interceptions will be will be
punished punished. Exactly.
And folks is to throw our touchdowns will spike in that
metric. So drinking we had, you know,
four weeks of data on on these quarterbacks I think we see a
couple familiar faces of the top of Mahomes and Lamar that we've
talked on. But to any any names jump out,
you know, out here, you know, if I was to tell you You know,
before week one, that ex-player was showing up in the top
right-hand side of this chart maybe talk about a player sort
of surprising so far. And so, yeah, I think that's a
really important approach because you look at at the
underdog Resurrection as ATP and there's two quarterbacks and
Lamar Jackson on Josh Allen in the first rounds.
And so you really do have to have to try and get some value.
And I I donated a nice any secret as to, who the most
surprising quarterback in the top right-hand corner, and it's
Geno Smith. He's got the, he's got the
rushing yards, he's got some touchdown efficiency and the
Eastman scoring points as well. Yeah, I think Gino is, let's
talk about, you know, for a little bit, another, some
interest on the ship chasing Discord to discuss that as well.
So, to give some context on how the market use them, he's still
sitting With an ADP of 165 in the best ball Resurrection.
So I think I've been I've been watching the trends of these.
I think that 165 is gone right up.
Yeah, like Bobby not non up to wear to who was getting too, but
he's not going to sit around for 165 for very long.
I don't think. I don't I don't think so either.
I think this ADP moves around quite rapidly.
I think there's a huge volume of drafts going on.
I think you will move up. I think you know if we're just
talking about that price right there.
I think that's a solid value. Not necessarily because I think
Gino is some amazing quarterback or anything like that, but I do
think this offense is very predictable from a pass catcher.
Active. So I think you can get both the
Seattle wide receivers at a decent discount right now and if
you stack them with Gino Smith, you know, if Gino has a big game
it's gonna go to Deacon that calf and maybe pee of around 60
right now and then Tyler Lockett and ATP of around 85.
So decays dropped a little bit from his preseason.
ATP walk. It's up a little bit, but I
think both those prices compared to a lot receivers in the in
that range or are pretty solid. So, I You know, if you get G
know'st, is somewhere in that range.
I like that stack. Just because of the predictable
nature of it, and again, it also looks like a team with a bad
defense. I could get in some in some
shootout. Well, on top of that, they're
the reasons that I like it. So the Seattle.
Now they actually have a positive are pass rate over
expectation and it's not very high, but it is still positive.
And there's like, It's Geno Smith, but there's also there.
Also is reasons to believe that they're going to be somewhat
efficient. Like they do have that.
That is actually a really strong, a pass-catching group of
the came back up, Tyler Lockett, and no, offense even will.
This lie has been like playing well, and, and then you add in
the, the rushing up side. Do you think that perhaps said,
you know, Schmitt might be what we wanted.
Marcus Mariota at the be. Yeah, I think that's
interesting. I was definitely more on Mariota
even after the first couple weeks.
But man, Atlanta, it's tough for me with Atlanta because I think
on the one hand, you could see the first four weeks and see a
steady decline in Atlantis past steps and say, hey, they see
married, what Marietta's doing out there when he's thrown the
ball, they want to hide them, or they want to continue to make
that offense more run-heavy to sort of hide him.
But also there's been on these weird games or they've been able
to Keep leads against teams like Cleveland and the Saints and
sort of these weird game scripts where I think it's some point.
They're not going to be able to do that.
I don't think Atlanta is that good of a team, they're sitting
at two and two right now. I think that's far above their
expectation. So I do think Atlanta is going
to be forced to throw a little bit more and Mariota can have
more of a spike week profile but so far it's just been kind of
like these ugly sort of floor games for Mario do where you're
not really Seeing seeing a lot of upside there.
So if I was to pick, I guess, the more directly answer your
question. If I was to pick right now, like
assuming they're pretty similar price, I would probably go Jean
over Marriott. I think he is slightly more job
security than Mariota, and he's just frankly, he's playing a lot
a lot better right now. So, yeah, why are you on that
page? There you are.
Eugene over Mariota. If it was sort of similar price.
Yeah, I think so too. And you Tree have risk of him
losing his job, and they're also, I mean, they're, they're
two and two, so it's not like they've been piling up these
losses and weight. It is something that would
encourage a coach to retain things.
And that was, he had that real high scoring Victory against
admittedly, a bad line, C fence, and that should help.
Yeah, but yet, I do think that there probably is some
regression. Like that kind of efficiency is
probably hard to expect for the rest of the year, but I do think
like positive password over expectation, strong weapons and
I guess it a new seemingly. Woke Pete, Carroll and like
those are the reasons to expect good offense.
Like yeah, we're doing the fundamental stuff that though
that wins games and scores points.
There, they're doing that. So that is something where I do
feel that compelled to a push, my priors a good bit on Gino
Smith. Yeah, it is a funny troll job
from Pete. Carroll to, when he finally gets
rid of Russell Wilson, they Seattle finally has a positive
path straight over expected. And now Denver you're seeing has
a pretty negative, Pastor expected.
So the let let us cook thing. It's just a funny.
Funny way to prove that for that turned out.
Another things are going to talk about.
We I think we talked about it hurts a little bit last week in
the context of he has this incredible adjusting that yards
Pratap. And if you just look at yards
per attempt, just the basic unadjusted metric.
Hertz is leading the league there as well.
So and again, The thing that's interesting about that to me on
this chart, you see, is that he has one of the lower TD rates in
the entire league. And I think part of that is that
at first, like you can say, oh yes, a ton of upside, then you
remember, okay? Part of the reason you such a
low TD rate is because that's a passing TD rate and Jalen hurd's
has a handful of rushing touchdowns on the year.
So when they get in close, he's rushing them in instead of
throwing it, throwing them in. I do think though the same time
the way I interpret That is there's upside for the Eagles
pass catchers, not necessarily upside for her.
It's because passing touchdowns rushing touchdown.
If you trade those out, that's not much of a difference.
You actually might lose some point, right?
It's not going to thank you. It's a - right but for the
receivers, I think agent Brown only has one touchdown on the
year at least two vodka and Goddard only have one or two.
I'm shooting from the hip here a little bit.
But they they all have pretty low touchdown totals and I think
that's hiding a bit of their upside, especially with a jab
Brown and we'll talk about him or me the wide receivers.
But I think just the fact that her to such a low passing TD
rate, I think that is due for positive regression and that's
going to help out devaugntah Aja Brown and Goddard quite a bit.
So I did the max, I just so he there is a lot of to do that to
that. So he does have four rushing
touchdowns on the year. However he also only has four
passing touchdowns. So even if you even if you add
that together and that gives them like a six and a half
percent push that one. Right?
Like that's still lower than like and now this is obviously a
little bit misleading but Bailey is happy.
Like yeah. Hey, it's the other than guard
Golf and it's lowered on them. The Mark Jackson.
All of who he does have the higher rare.
And even what, even whatever. That, even with the lower
touchdown, he still has the higher adjusted yards per
attempt and much higher yards per attempt.
So, I think that's true that the that some of the reason is there
is the lower and of the some of the reason for the lower
touchdown, right? Is that he runs him in, but he
could still also add on additional passing touchdowns,
which is kinda nuts. Now, I I'm acting like I knew
this all along. I literally just did the maxim
that. I thought that was a great
point. And yeah, now I'll just add on
that a little bit like Kenneth gain well as two rushing
touchdowns and only 15. This happens all year, Boston
Scott has one touchdown. I'm just 10 attempts all year,
so I think those are a bit, those rates are a bit fluky.
I think, Sanders three touchdowns and seventy two
attempts. We can expect that more or less
to stick that sounds about, right?
But some of these fluky gain well, in Boston, scored
touchdowns that have happened. I think easily, you know, AJ
Brown doesn't get tackled at the 5 or the 2-yard line on some of
these plays. We could see It hurts having
even even bigger even bigger outside there.
So I think that's, that's interesting as a guy who is
already flashing this sort of incredible quarterback ceiling
that there's still I think some room to grow.
There's no meat on the bone. Yep.
So when I think we talked about this a little bit and so I know
to make this chart readable, we have to limit it to one
quarterback per team but I do To it took it by a lower has an ADP
of 96 and this the scoring in this doesn't start until week 6
and he is in the concussion protocol.
And and that obviously really unfortunate and give given given
the overall landscape of their quarterbacks being so expensive.
Even if he doesn't play that's a week 6, I think that's a lot of
question. And given how well he's played
and like it's interesting here that you can see at Teddy B,
hasn't played Teddy. Bridgewater hasn't played nearly
as well. So there is there, I think
there's, there's evidence that there is a pretty good skill
component for to, and yeah, I think that's a pretty Still a
pretty good value there. Yeah, I agree I'm guessing some
of that is just fear that there's a longer right absence
with a second concussion and we'll get more information on
that. But with we've talked about this
a little bit, the prices you have to pay on the quarterbacks
in the resurrection right now is insane.
You have Lamar Jackson going to pick nine, you have Josh Allen
going, a pic 10, Jalen hurd's a pic 15, Patrick Mahomes of pick
20 and even someone Like Joe Bro who hasn't started off the
season hot, he's going up pick 50.
So I think with all this uncertainty of the other
positions, it's really driving the elite quarterback.
Stephen, sort of like that mid tier quarterbacks up quite
aggressively. So I think this to discussion is
with that framing in mind that to take down the best while.
Resurrection, I think it's really important to think about
some of these mid tier quarterback values because the
opportunity cost with Lamar Jackson and Jalen hurd's.
It's not like it was in the Summer, where you could guide,
you can Hammer those meetings cubing 420.
Yeah, like that's I mean that's obviously not as expensive as
like a super Flex ATP. Not nearly as expensive but it's
a lot closer to that than a single QB price.
Yeah. And I thought that the elite
quarterbacks were as a whole underpriced, this, this all
season, besides besides Joshua, maybe I thought it was like such
an easy. Click to go with hurts Lamar
Kyler it like the thing is insane.
Is so it's really I did want to drop this afternoon, it's really
making me rethink my whole draft strategy because it was so just
geared towards Elite quarterback.
This offseason and now I'm like I got to get a little more
creative with the to as the Trevor Lawrence is, you know,
even the underperforming veterans like Stafford, Rogers
car Ken. Some of these guys still hit a
ceiling that we haven't seen yet this season and payoff at much
cheaper prices and I think generally that's going to be my
Approach. I'm looking in that tear more so
than paying a first-round price for Josh Eleanor you know, Jalen
hurts. So continuing that at that team
of like just trying to find guys who can be good, where you want
the break the bank and how much weight do you put on the fact
that at Jared Goff still played really?
Really well. Like he won people tournaments
at last week despite missing like several of his best players
who You should come back at some point and then they also have
James and Williams like waiting in the wing.
And he's going to take that deep troll.
Like he's is an absolute stud. Yeah, I'm so if you listen the
show last week we were hyping up golf I think at pick 140.
He's now something around. There is now.
Pick one 10-ish, I'm still I think pretty in on that price.
I think just as you made a great point Rick out the fact that
he's still smashed without some of his best weapons out and
there's potential first weapons, get even better with Jameson
Williams back. I think it's just a really good
system for golf right now with some Pretty solid depth, a good
mix of depth and star players and that offense, that they've
shown to be pretty resilient to energy injuries to one or two
guys. So you know that defense is
going to be really bad. They're going to be aggressive.
They're going to throw, you know, be aggressive on fourth
down. So we're gonna have a high
relatively high pass rate over expectation.
I am still completely fine with Jared Goff in the one tens and I
think you know with golf to another positive thing that we
maybe forgot is He's got a shown this before with some of this
year's on the Rams where, you know, I'm kind of shooting from
the hip here a little bit, but he was, you know, a top-10
quarterback in redraft. That's how the market value to
him. When he had a good system and a
good set of weapons there. And I think we're kind of seeing
it again with them. He's got a couple down years on
some bad teams and now in this good system he's shown he's able
to perform and I don't see any reason to shy away from him at
pick and you know, in the 110 swear he's going right now.
So and just just to kind of illustrate some of the impact of
their body defense. So their situation neutral and
pace. So they're they're playing at 29
and 29 seconds for snap-in situation neutral.
But when they are, when they're trailing, They are at 25
seconds, that's not. So like that's for snacks.
That's four seconds of snuck over like a full game.
Like, I don't know how many extra plays that is, but it's a
lot of extra place. Yeah, yeah, and I misspoke
there, actually, they are passed right over.
Expected is actually slightly negative.
So they're pretty neutral in terms of pass rate over
expected. So it really is more game script
driven. But again, you know, I don't see
their defense getting better, and it's not like they're
getting torn up by Elite. Offenses are getting torn up by
Geno Smith. You know the likes likes of
that? Who maybe maybe is a lead now?
I don't know. But You know, it's not like the
way that she used some bills and all these amazing teams every
week. They're kind of getting chewed
up by what we think of is League, average or Worse offense
has trickled. Last last Quick hit.
I want to say in quarterback. I think if we're again have the
best ball, Resurrection Focus, I think Jimmy G is a pretty clear
value. If you're looking in the
quarterback twos, he's priced at pick 167 right now.
And again, it's it's not Like if I was talking one quarterback,
I'm not excited about Jimmy G but I think on teams where you
wait for your quarterback one and need to go for three
quarterbacks, I think Jimmy G is a really good value.
He has a ton of pass catchers that can bail him out.
We saw it with Debo last night or whatever, that game was where
Devo can take a slant. 70 yards to the house, you know, kittel
can do Insane things after the catch.
I, you can make crazy plays going deep.
So if that stuff gets in a game script where there Forced to
throw a little bit more. I just think the pass catchers,
give Jimmy pretty solid upside there.
And he also has no risk of losing his job which I think
some of the other guys in that range.
Mariota whence even has some risk there and then you have
guys like Jamis was a broken back Tannehill with with smilla
Willis Flutie. I do like in that range is 10.
Yeah yeah. And so if you look just To start
with the Bob. If you look at his adjusted
yards per attempt, he actually, because he true the tree
interceptions on 13 attempts. If she doesn't - that as just
feed yards per attempt with. Yeah, I had to eliminate him
from this chart because you think he was so far off to the
left. Yeah, I think I remember looking
like, where is it? Yeah.
But as a blue, I guess on a straight yards per attempt and
he goes have nine point two yards per attempt which I mean,
he's strong aggressively, right? He also, he had that he had two
rushing touchdowns. He had 15 yards, rushing, which
is not great, but it adds something and they do, they do
have pretty strong weapons and their defense is absolutely
terrible. So I think he could be someone
where you are probably going to get like some not strong days,
and just because have the team is bad.
But But you do have aggressive play.
You have and you have rushing and you have probably favorable
game script. And some pretty strong weapons.
Yeah. And I think all the weapons are
pretty under priced right now, so we'll get into that later.
I'm with you there on picket. So let's move on to the running
backs, that was a solid breakdown of the quarterback
position again here, just for folks listening or folks, may be
unfamiliar with the chart, we're looking at running back,
expected fantasy points and efficiency.
So on this graph, Here we see receiving expected fantasy
points on the y-axis. Rushing on the x-axis, you sort
of add those two together and you get an idea of the running
backs, overall expected workload, in terms of expected
fantasy points. The size of the Dots here is
fantasy points over or under expected.
So the guys with the larger dots are outperforming their expected
fantasy points, workload the guys with the smaller, dots or
dots, you can See like Joe Mixon are underperforming.
Their expected workload. So forgot, I think we can't.
I think we have to start off this jar by talking about Joe
mix and he's maybe one of the most confounding players this
season that fantasy, just an insane workload, but some of the
worst efficiency I've seen Over a Four game, stretch with that
type of workload. What are you thinking of the
situation you ever? Watch Community.
Whereas Like name that came out for the Asian guy that he's
like, that's gonna make some not.
Yeah. It's you need a magnifying glass
to see Joe makes on this chart but he's literally, he's
breaking the chart into ways, he's breaking it and that he's
got so many more expected fantasy points than anybody
else. But he's also breaking in the
fact that Like the efficiency is so bad, that it makes every
other back look like great by comparison.
Like it's kids skews the entire chart two ways.
So, I don't know, I'm a little, you have a genomics and take, I
have some thoughts, but I'm curious like, how are you
treating? This may be from a best of all.
Resurrection lens. How do you treat a guy with the
best workload in the league? But terrible efficiency going at
the end of the second round and dram.
I mean I don't think my answer is It's too much from last week
in that, the high expected points is being driven just by
total overall play volume, okay, yeah, which itself is being
driven by not good, not good, efficiency.
And I mean, we generally think of running back expected Point
our friends, he points over expected as kind of a volatile
stock and and but he obviously he is underachieving on the
touchdown front but he's also under achieving on the on the
watch color, on the running, on the rushing yards over expected
and I don't know that. I'm a little bit, how do you
trust that up? Or how do you, how do you play
that? That that I'm not interested.
I want good players. Yeah, the thing for me is that I
don't love Joe Mixon the town, but I do think he's quite a bit
better than what he's shown in these first four weeks.
You know, last year, he wasn't incredibly efficient or smashing
his expectation. In terms of sort of appered, her
touch bases of yards for around basis, but he was scoring a ton
of touchdowns and that saved him.
And I think For me it's just you know I didn't ATP at the back
end of the second round running back is just so incredibly thin
right now that I do think he has the workload and I'd still think
the Cincinnati Cincinnati offense can be good that I think
I want to take some stabs at that price because I think he
can still, he still has the three touchdown game in his
range of outcomes. This volume Umm that he's shown
right now. I think he now has sort of like
the 67 catch game and its range of outcomes but it's it's more
going to be compiling than efficiency which is why I like
you know if he was going the first round, I would be out but
I think in that in that Arrangement a lot of the elite
wide receivers are gone. I'm willing to sort of plug my
nose and draft. A little bit of Joe Mixon at
that price. I think he can't be, you know, I
totally agree with your point that A lot of this work load is
propped up by the fact that run 70 plays.
But even if you if you take that out like in the flip forward a
couple charts he's still got like the fifth best role sort of
in the in the NFL in terms of percent of his team snaps who's
getting a rush or a pass route. So, I think there's some
stickiness there where even if the plays are grass his role,
you know, he's being drafted of what, like, the are be 10 or
Something at no, are you saying? Yeah, I think that's, that's
still, like, a slight slight value compared to his role, and
some aggression and efficiency, but I can see your side of
things. Like, it's sort of, it sort of
take that feels fun at all. So, and my the reason that I
would disagree at so obviously I get I I gave it to take on why?
Like I'm not a fan of him as a player. and but when somebody
has played that pearly and I eat even though the position itself
has struggled as a whole, it's like I still I still approach
fantasy football in that like I'm trying to get the most
talented roster that I can and and I don't think I can take him
over gel and waddle T. Higgins Swift.
And even though Swift up those have the injury.
And he's gone right alongside Deebo Samuel.
I yeah, yeah. If you're offering me that
choice like those guys are just so much more talented and we've
seen like how high the ceilings that wide receivers can hit even
in the happy b or M. I would just rather take, I'd
rather take my risks elsewhere at running back.
That's where that's where I definitely see that side of it.
But yeah, anyways I think some other other guys to hit on here
that are interesting. To me one would be Josh Jacobs
again, kind of in that Joe mix in category, where he's not a
fun player to talk about. I think a lot of people's in our
Circle fantasy football. Have dismissed, Josh hiccups for
years, but he now has a really strong role.
Both in terms of this expected fantasy points view.
He's in 15 expected fantasy points per game range, which is
quite strong for Eddie was drafted.
And then if you look at this chart here again with shows
percent of team snaps, he really spikes here relative to his
cost. He has the sixth highest
workload, meaning percent of his team's plays where he's getting
a rush, or a pastor out. And right now, if you're looking
for, you know, running back values on the best ball,
Resurrection. He's going at a price of pick 75
and I think that is just way too low, that's gonna go up yet.
You know, people are on the Joshi ago.
She had a big game last week that price is certainly bound to
go up, but I don't think it'll go up enough because of this
anchoring effect on Josh Jacobs. I think, one I'll let you talk
about them at the last thing about on Jacobs is, I think for
people that have dismissed him for a while, it hasn't even
necessarily been that, they think he's a bad Talent.
It's been that the role is Really bad.
They've always taken them off the field on passing downs and
not really giving him targets. I don't think anyone thinks he's
like this amazing talent but I think he's like, you know, a
four, net fish level Talent. He's the same Talent of guys
that have put up big fantasy Seasons before.
So I'm pretty excited by this. This jacob stuff so far and if
the price sticks in the 70s or 60s, I think that's, that's a
pretty easy click for me. Yeah, I think he has a yeah.
He has It kind of dead zone profile in a way and but he
doesn't have a dead zone price. So that's why it's different and
they a difference for me as well.
The big difference between him and mixing is that judge Jacobs
is actually played well. Like it.
And it's not like he just played on this amazing offense.
Like he's actually like played really well and he's earned his
snap, share his workload. And I am, he actually, you could
argue that he's been unlucky because his touched hit the
biggest reason for his kind of like neutral ish and fantasy
points. Over expected, is because he
hasn't got the right amount of. He hasn't got the touchdowns
that you would expect given his workload.
And so I think if he were to go back to Old Josh, Jacob price.
I stopped being interested just because of the fragility of the
position and I don't think he's like an Elite Talent and but at
current cost, it's a pretty easy selection.
I think. Yeah.
Agreed the other guys to hit on here, Draco, do I have any odor?
Thirsty, indeed, I do. So Bruce Hall I think your
problem. Everybody will see this
everywhere, he's the starting now and pick 46, it's too cheap.
He's obviously going to be higher but while you can get
them anywhere around there, great value and an even bigger
value, I think is j.k. Dobbins, I picked 57.
So, he's in that kind of I guess he's in between ten and fifteen
point six expected points per game which coming back from the
serious injury that he is. And that is really I think it's
really, really encouraging and he's so talented.
The offense is so good. Obviously Jackson takes someone
to touchdowns off the off the table, but that's not Destiny
and offense. That scores that Many points
it's going to have points for the back and I I see that as a
really really probably one of the most attractive are picks in
action especially in a PPR, right?
Like for talking full, PPR and say he was a third-round pick or
something I'd be like I don't know if he has the receiving
profile to live up to that but yeah I just price on a half PP,
our website. You can get there through
touchdowns. I think, you know, if I'm making
my list of the top Ten guys who are most likely to have a multi
touchdown game in any given week.
I think Dobbins is already knocking on that door already
and his role has has room to grow as the season goes on.
Also Justice Hill worth mentioning, I think left the
game with a somewhat serious injury this week, need to follow
up on that but that could even open up things further because I
really think they don't trust these Kenyan Drake.
Mike Davis dust balls again. I guess.
Originally back at some point, but there could be even more
opportunity with a Justice Hill injury there.
Cool. Last thing on the SE Derrick
Henry, I think it is worth mentioning that he's gotten five
and six Targets in each of the past two weeks.
I don't know if that's just noise or the coaching staff.
Realizing! Hey we use Derrick Henry in the
passing game last year and it worked.
Let's let's try that again. But it has, you know, just from
watching the games it looks like they've ripped off some solid
screen plays with Derrick Henry out there and I expect, you
know, I don't expect six targets a week but I do expect like more
in the 3 to 4 range. Now verse the first two weeks
when you just had zero. So I think that does give some
hope to Henry drafters that that ceiling from last year is still
there. If he does have those five or
six Target games and we know you can rip off the long run or, you
know roast the Texans 440 fantasy points in a given week.
So I think that this problem and Midway through the second.
No, I'll probably I'm probably not.
I think this comment was more, you know.
I think it looked really bad for Henry after two weeks, right?
And I would have been like selling him low at like a third
late 3rd round value but you know equivalent in my leagues I
think now he's maybe like I think you should go a few pics
lower. I would certainly take a look at
the wide receivers right now. It's a cam on Rover, him out,
take Debo over him. I would probably take, you know,
I think he I think he fits in sort of the mixing Ranger that
of the second that makes, I think, I think there's a lot of
the most exciting and DFS, right?
Yeah, hmm. Yeah, I think there is a
discussion we plan on the time for today, but just with health
in Running back looks right now that it's all it's almost
becoming and maybe like we sort of already viewed it this way
but it's almost becoming a little bit like the tight end
position where there's so few guys that really have like
upside right now at the running back position that when I'm on
the clock and I'm thinking about Derrick Henry and the second
round verse Jalen waddle I know in a vacuum that waddle is
almost certainly the better pick and projects or more fantasy
points and all of that. But with the wide receivers I
can build around later. Verse, some of the running backs
later, I may be incline on some teams to go with sort of the
anchor, right? That's why I'm who are be work.
So well, why it's so popular? And because you can get a guy
like Henry make the bat that a he's gonna be like this all year
if he is, I win a bunch of money.
Yeah. I guess yeah the only thing
would be the age but I think I would agree more than not.
Yeah. Now the long-term our age,
everything there's some red flags, but I think the last two
weeks he's shown. That, that Derrick Henry.
Henry ceiling is still? There may be a way that weeks
one and two. I was a little spooked, right?
You can still play. Yeah, Okay, I think we should
hit while we're on their seat side.
The shark doesn't show it but maybe some folks don't realize
in Miami. There seems to have been at
takeover last week with moster playing a lot more snaps than
Edmonds. I think he almost doubled him up
in terms of snaps and routes run admin.
Still seems to be getting the favor of looks in the red zone
and we've seen sort of flip-flopping back and forth
over these first four weeks. So I'm not like Locking in
moster to that dominant share of snaps there, but worth
mentioning is maybe something that went under the radar.
If you just looked at the box score quickly you wouldn't have
picked that up necessarily cool. Moving on to the NFC Again, we
have Berkeley, we made the case for as the number one, running.
Back in the resurrection showing up pretty strongly here and now
he is a number one, running back, and he is, yeah, we're
Market Movers here at statue, right?
Yeah. But I think yeah, I think that
market is right there. I think if you wanted to go
McCaffrey over Berkeley, That's the only one where I can see the
reasoning for it. I think with Taylor's injury,
you can't do that anymore. But anyways, you know, I think
these top guys get a lot of attention, draco's or maybe any
sort of the more unheralded names here or situations that
you found interesting in week 4. Yeah, so I think two of the
situations that we should hit on our the to injury situations.
And and I guess before, before we move on to the NFC, do you
want to talk about the Denver situation?
Yeah, we should hit on that. Yeah.
And so all that, I guess I'll shoot first.
And so so I think the biggest concern for me in that whole
backfield is that once a happened, they immediately bring
in at latavius Murray and it really like It feels to me as if
very kind of like strong situation for or say, a very
likely scenario, the most likely scenario is it becomes the
stream and back fields of like, so they trusted Melvin Gordon
for like, hiding for the last couple years.
And but he hasn't, but he hasn't played well and to start the
year and Bun. It has been mostly special teams
player and never really never. Gotten like a high snap share,
and obviously, he has juice, but never really gotten high, snap
share. And then the first thing to do
is bring in latavius Murray, who did actually show decent juice
last week in London and so much. I think my overall approach
would be the try and attack the situation in as most in price
conscious way as possible. And yeah, I think I am a little
bit more bullish on Boone than you are.
I think so, it depends, I guess let's talk about something like
a league. Like the football guys
championships for that best FF PC Main Event right now.
I think you don't get many chances on waivers to get a
running back. Who ooh, One LED his team in
staffs the week before that only is going to happen, you know a
couple times over the course of the year and to I think the
second data point of like a bun is they were looking to get him
involved in week 3, even before Javonte went down, it went a
little bit under the radar but it actually kind of turned into
this gross three-man committee and week 3 with Boone getting
some snaps. So I see that you know the fact
that he got to have some 3, the fact that he passed Gordon and
week for another look. I know Gordon was banged up.
He had the fumble there, some sort of confounding factors
there, but he did have more staffs and Gordon week, for
after Javonte went down, I'm kind of taking a risk off those
two data points, and being a little bit more aggressive on
do. And I see them very signing, as
more of a signal that, they just need some veteran depth in the
building, if Gordon is still banged up.
Up or, you know, someone in rb3 position.
But I think I would be more in the twenty to thirty percent of
your budget range for bun which probably like isn't even enough
to get him. Like, maybe I'm just more
aggressive than you, but I'm not as aggressive as the market is
my. Yeah, I guess my only thing is
like, so these guys who can take over back fields, they have to
be kind of stuck, maybe not. Four stars, but they have to be
very strong and I felt talents. Do you think bun is a strong NFL
town? No.
But I think he's a League average and I felt talent and I
think at the running back position, if the team believes
in you and just gives you a lot of carries and lets you run a
lot of routes. You can, you can swear.
Yeah, you can see what my I guess.
We should probably move on what soon and but my only thing would
be if he's an average average NFL talent and those the guys
who get Intrigue committee back fields, Yeah, but it's just the
I'm more. So comparing it to other.
Running backs are going to be available on waivers through the
course of the year. And this is a guy that was at
least had a role on his team 442 concern right weeks.
Like there's not that many guys on waivers they even have any
kind of role in their team. So if a guy already has a role
that a major injury happens and opens up more staffs room, it's
not like I think bun is this amazing talent but we have this
signal from the team that like him, there's opportunity for him
to earn more talent and you know, going way back to his
Minnesota days, he did Flash like a bit of a ceiling in his
three starts to end the 20/20 season.
He had an RV one week in week 17, + rb2 week in week 15.
So he has kind of already shown that.
Like he can get they're not like a league winning running back
but like a running back that could be super valuable to a 0.
RB roster. So let me ask you this up to
walk cake would you take them in the resurrection?
I think I saw that I took him today on the TMI drafted because
he's coming and ADP of 189. I think I took him around like
170 because I was just playing the ADP game, but I would
looking at the guys in the list right now, I would take him.
Let's see, man, these prices are all over the place, I think in
the one in the 140s and that's not to say that every running
back ahead of him, I like better and every running back behind
him. I like Worse.
But just generally looking at these prices here.
I think I would take him in like the 130s 140s range.
I think I'm more in like the 11 50s when 60s.
So, yeah, that's one of those things where like it's a small
difference probably. Ah, but when you hash it out, it
sounds much larger than it actually is and and you're the
host. So I don't want to take over it
too much, but I do think we should talk about the NFC case
of that, we're at quarter of Patterson went on the 3rd Eye or
Yeah, we should talk about that. And then, yeah.
So I think this one might take on the Atlanta one.
Is looking at this chart here. Let's start with Cordarrelle.
Patterson is expected fantasy points.
He's only in around the 10, the 5 to 10 expected fantasy points
range. That's decent.
But not great. So, from that perspective, he's
not really leading by two huge workload and then if we look at,
is this other view of sort of this Russia, tap, share and
Route share again. He shows up at the far,
right-hand side of this chart for the running backs, getting
more than 45% routes of Russia temp.
So again it's a It's like a top 30 role in the NFL, but it's not
that big of a role. Actually, it's kind of in like
you know the room, Andre Stephenson level of role that he
has right now. So taking those two data points
together, he doesn't have a ton of expected fantasy points.
He doesn't have like a ton of snaps that he's leaving behind.
He's more so than getting there. So far this year on an
efficiency standpoint. When he is on the field, they're
designing looks for him, they're getting him the ball and he's
like, been Frankly, when you see him run the ball, he's like
hurdling, dudes and smashing in the guys and running it down the
field. So that's all to say that I
think Patterson has been getting there on efficiency and not so
much volume which makes me less excited about the likes of
algae, ER, Caleb hotly, you know, Damien Williams, when he
comes back because I think actually Patterson's not leaving
behind that they go roll. He's just an awesome player and
nobody's going to be able to sort of replicate what he does
there. Going to sort of split this up
and it's going to be tough to trust these guys that's that I'm
like I'm adding algier. Like I'd be fitting, you know,
150 form or something, right? But like, I'm not as excited
compared to like someone like bun.
What do you think you're doing it?
I would see it. So we were actually we were just
talking and when we're talking on the corner box is that one of
the one of the reasons that they had?
Alana offense has been so bad for Herbert pretty much all the
players and it They don't play fast enough.
They don't travel enough. Yeah.
And, and we, we probably should expect that to improve the some
degree. And so I do think that there
probably is as slightly bigger, pie coming and kind of future
weeks than we've seen for the first four weeks.
And and then I guess the, the one and now I No.
I think that tell her I was here is probably the priority over
over the two of them. Yeah but he does actually did
have a really strong receiving profile in college.
He did he did get solid, he did get I guess.
Okay, draft capital and but the, I guess the other thing about it
is that he How do I say it? He does, he does have talent.
So it could be the situation where now that, he guess he gets
a little bit more opportunity that he gets more a bigger
chance to show that talent. And and I think there's probably
the strongest note for him is that one said, Patterson went
down. He got all the receiving
workload, Caleb Huntley didn't get, didn't get a single Target
and yeah, so that's just being able to Solid 8, all of the
Advanta app and receiving work from the back field that could
be pretty solid value was yeah that that all make sense.
I'm definitely excited about algae or compared to other
Atlanta guys so yeah cool. I think I'm a couple quick hits
and then we can move on to the wide receiver.
I think the Rashad white usage if you didn't see that game
prime time they were giving him I'm they're rotating series
between him and for net. So that's really bullish.
He had been basically relegated to a handful of snaps for game.
They wanted to get them more involved and we saw that pretty
clearly in prime time. So I'm excited about Rashad
white, definitely grab him and he leagues where he is
available. And yeah, I think that's
something else. I forgot to check out any quick
hits here before. We can also look at the stop
share shark quickly, if you had anything.
On the plate on that that for we talk about wide receiver and
know. I think I think I made the I had
my notes. I interrupted a good bit to make
them. Okay, I'm sorry.
I'm good to go. Yeah.
Cool. Let's talk about receivers then
it's for shame. We're 50 minutes in.
This is a show hosted by ship chasing and we're only known
talking about the wide receivers.
Yeah, I know we're probably getting we're probably a fire
die. We patch especially in Discord.
We've been. We've been fired.
You've been sleeping hands. I feel Shannon's.
I brought shame to my family. It's pretty, it's pretty ugly.
Okay, let's hope these water severs.
I'll quickly talk about this jar for people who are unfamiliar.
We're looking at wide receiver opportunity versus fantasy
points here as a way to identify potential cell highs and by low.
So guys that are underperforming their expert.
In terms of opportunity and gods that are or over performing.
So, we have our different quadrants here, on the y-axis,
we have fantasy points per game. And on the x-axis, we have
waited targets, per route run, which is a good measure of
opportunity. It's the number of targets, you
get per route, you're on the field but adjusted in terms of
are yard, so adjusted for how far down the field you're gay
and that Target because a 50-yard bomb is worth more
expected fantasy points than you know but behind the line of
scrimmage screen Pass. So, that's the general
orientation of the chart. I think we should start off
Draco by talking about, you know, the headline of this show
today, Alan Robinson, just doing an awesome job sticking to his
cardio routine on the field. He's really showing a lot of
diligence, they're just, you know, Stafford's not even
looking his way, but he's just diligently running routes.
Yeah, he's got his Catan, he's getting the steps in his strama
- raava profile. It's really impressive.
Running a lot of distance out there on the field.
Yeah, but he's been Jokes Aside. He's been like he's been a true
disaster. I think maybe a conversation
worth having here is we can't we can't rip Allen Robinson to
shreds without talking about how Gabe Davis actually is
profiling, very similar to him on this chart.
He's also, he's even seeing less weighted targets for around, I
don't know how that's possible. Table with how bad Robinson has
been but yeah, trigger interested in your Gabe.
Davis, take like if Robinson is dead which I think a lot of
people think he is he's got an ATP of around 100 of the best
all resurrection and that's going to be straubing that's
going to be dropping rapidly. What do we think?
The deal with Gabe Davis is he is not really Fallen.
People are still buying gave Davis and ATP of 44, how do we
reconcile? Like those two a, I think the
biggest, the biggest A difference.
Is that Gabe Davis? He does he did have an ankle
injury and that he's been playing true and I think people
are giving him a little bit of a pass on that and just because
his prior efficiency was actually very good like his that
his / root stuff and it just it for a dot in the last couple
years is actually been really strong and but they're probably
there is like Some degree of like a signal in that.
A lot of the order, a lot of the other receivers have been
earning targets, like, Stefan Dick's has been a Target
machine. He's returned to like vintage
form, Stefon Diggs, which doesn't it doesn't leave a lot
of a lot of room for anybody else.
And yeah, I do think, though, that, He gave David we'll
probably I think you'll probably still be okay.
And once it when I guess assuming the ankle those heel
and just because his his touchdown Equity is so high and
but it it up like I guess there's a lot of new ones here.
But yeah, it would seem that on the margin.
He was too expensive this summer.
What do you think about this is a tepee of 40 is 43 right now.
That's what Resurrection are you thinking about?
Yeah that's what I that's why I'm shocked is that it hasn't
really moved at all. I don't quite remember but it
was it was close to that in the summer.
So that's what I'm trying to understand.
Like I agree with you. He's not dead, he's not out
Robinson. I'm not like burying him calling
him a cardio specialist but he's been really bad and even with
the ankle injury like I'm Pretty spooked like I am waiting for
that price to fall. There's guys going behind them,
that just looks so much more exciting to me.
Chris olave, Chris Godwin, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, even you
know, Bateman you can make an argument for a lot of guys going
behind him. Instead of gave Davis right now
that I'm not really touching that price of the temple foot
pole at ATP of 43. Yeah.
Yeah I agreed and there's like for example, you've got Bruce
Holly even aside from wide receiver, you got Breeze Hall
who was now starting running back and and if like me you're
passing on Joe Mixon for gel and waddle and you're taking their
and res Hall there over gave David's there.
Yeah. It is really, it is one of those
things where it doesn't feel like we have the full
information in that he is, he is running this really high
percentage of snaps but we don't actually know to what degree the
ankle is hurting him. Like it's like you've got this
wide range of like it could be absolutely song.
I'm down and that's why he's not earning targets and in two weeks
time the ankles going to be better and you can smash or it
could really be that he was just like an overhyped kind of turd
year potential break out. Yeah, another, I there's a big
range there. You know, the thing is like,
with the injury narrative, which the thing about it, I don't
quite buy is the fact that he is running 95 to 100 years, he's
literally out there for every single play.
Even in the game where they ran like a million plays, what was
that against Miami two weeks ago, he's still running like
every single play. So if he was limited you think
they would be arresting him. Somewhat.
So that's what's weird to me like, it's right.
Certainly could be bothering him.
And he's kind of like, in this decoy roll out there, but I'm
kind of just not, if the injury was the issue, I would kind of
expect to see a lower percent of routes.
Run it like, slightly better efficiency, like we're seeing
how the opposite, which is why I'm more spook than optimistic
on get Davis. Especially on.
Same costs are higher. Yeah.
So let's hit on a couple questions from the from the,
yeah. Vern comments from the Shad,
Chris said I think Pickins Is a great Buy Low and I think that's
a great point from Chris. And I also wanted to talk about
sort of the Steelers, in general, I see Pickens popping
in the Bi-Lo session of this chart.
I also see Deonte popping there. Do you agree that those two
stealer get Steelers. Guys are great by Louis.
Yeah, I yeah, I particularly like Pickens.
I particularly agree with Chris on Pickens.
I actually hadn't went him in my notes as it player to called
out. He is getting the strong and way
to targets per run. And if the kind of small sample
size data on, Kenny Pickett being a bit more of an
aggressive tro, our that, that would really suit and George
Pickens, playstyle. And that would be very, very
interesting. Especially I pick 100 or so.
I think it's 104 and I think that the other Johnson is so
good that it The offense can kick things into gear, he
obviously is a very very very strong body.
There are 55 and the reason I prefer Pickens more is just the
price because at that price you can you have a bit more of an
out in that he can even if the offense doesn't kick up as much
as we want, you still have the out of him being becoming more
of a 1 B, which Looks like he's not too far off becoming and
especially as a rookie who generally improve as the year
goes on. And so yeah.
That would be my taught on those two players.
Yeah, I can't really add anything that I think I agree
with all your points. I'm, I'd be drafting both at
their current prices and yeah, I agree.
Pickens slightly more. Exciting Kaz commented.
I thought this was interesting. He said, Said Max Payne.
Seeing Curtis Samuel in the cell High quadrant.
I think Curtis Samuel is an interesting one because I think
there's two things going on. One part of the reason he shows
up in the cell High quadrant is because we're showing waited
targets per route run, which ding guys like Samuel who see a
pretty heavy Target volume, but see a ton of them close to a lot
of scrimmage. She's not really getting a ton
of air yards. But I think the role is still
pretty strong force annual that. I, I don't think that the market
is really valuing. If they were valuing him super
high, I would agree on like this charts, sell High designation
here but he's still only going to pick 75.
And you also have the element where Jahan Dotson has a
hamstring injury. It's not fear to be super
serious but he's going to be out a couple weeks and hamstring
injuries. Really compared a lot of
injuries. They tend to linger and if
Offense condensed to die. Any brown running with Sprint's
on the outside with them McLaren and Curtis annual soaking up
even more targets. I think there's even some kind
of sneaky sneaky upside for Samuel over the next couple
weeks and Beyond. So I'm not like necessarily
agreeing with what the sell high for him on his price.
What do you think? Yeah, I agree.
And one point to make is that if you look at his Fantasy points
over expected, it's actually neutral.
So and I think that the, this chart it, it's a great chart,
but Curtis Samuel might be like a no matter what chart you use.
It's going to have some blind spots and Curtis.
Samuel might be the blind spot on the air, I agree.
Yeah, this is like a trout that's just set up for Samuel to
fail but I think his role as actually.
Actually pretty strong, okay? Couple like, I just want to give
quick hitters for people. Listening on audio, other sort
of maybe unexpected names that are actually have really strong
roles and I would be buying or even adding and shallower
leagues, Jacoby Myers really has a quite strong targets per route
run and he might be dropped in some leagues because he's been
injured the past couple weeks DJ charc.
Same story. I think his role as pretty
strong. I like the Detroit offense.
I'm picking him up if he's The dropped in a leagues and then
also, Tyler Lockett, I think is a guy worth calling out where
that offense really seems to be condensing to lock it and
Metcalf. So I like I like those guys
Draco any. Oh yeah we should talk about
Rondell more with think is on this he is on the Chinese on the
next chart. Oh it's on the next chart okay
anybody else on this chart you want to talk about?
Yeah and so I did want to call that with that.
Hollywood Brown has played much better over the past two weeks,
Dan and he had when we called him out and he's actually kind
of maintain the same kind of role of like being a playing a
lot on the outside, kind of getting the eleven and a half
range for a DOT and last getting that in the last game he
actually 12 contested catches and this.
Despite and and that's despite the offense kind of struggling.
So I think it's probably one of those situations similar to
where Henry at Derrick Henry, where I am.
It's obviously you're disappointed that the offense is
cratered, but it looked enough a lot better than it did in the in
the first couple of games and I pick 50 I think is like anybody
anybody who's going to be in the top quadrant top, right quadrant
of this for the full-time guys and outside, the first four
rounds is is an easy life for me.
And I also didn't want to call that.
We just have actually got so many guys in this like strong
performer range here. Wide receiver, which has worked
out very differently to what the preseason expectation.
Was preseason expectation was that?
Oh, hey, wide receiver isn't the steepest this year at?
There's this dramatic fall off. Once you get outside of the top
two rounds and I don't think that's proven true.
I think that It was, It was obviously there's a lot of
transition last year or this year.
So it was harder to project which wide receivers would
finish in this hyper range but I think it's been obviously at a
lot stronger for the top wide receivers than a than we were
expecting on into the year. Yeah, and you see node ATP,
right? The number of running backs
taking the first two rounds now, compared to at the start of the
season, has dropped way off because we have a lot of
confidence and some of these wide receivers.
So that's that's a good macro take.
And I think something that's important to remember, maybe for
next year that these running backs can really fall off a
cliff in terms of price after a couple weeks in a way that is
much less common. Owen for the wide receivers.
Now, I think a little bit of that is this year's been
especially bad for some of the top running backs and especially
good for some of the wide receivers but I think it's sort
of a general Trend that we would expect over time.
I wish somebody could make a draft strategy to profit off
that but I'm sure they're still working on it.
I'm working on it still number one and I major tournament.
Okay, we're working on it this year though.
Yeah, they'll see that. It's looking good this year.
So this chart here we're now moving on to God's running 65 to
85 percent of Route. So they're still running
majority of their team's routes but not the full complement,
Wheaties, this a little bit. Maybe let's start with Rondell
more drink. Oh, he immediately came into a I
believe around an 85% route shared week one so that Greg
door troll that was pretty strong, basically, completely
disappeared. And just went to Rondell more,
you know, actually he is I think he's even on the other chart now
that I'm looking at this closely he actually appears I don't out
there, he's right there. Yeah.
Okay, yeah. So I don't know what to say
about Rondell besides, like I think it's bullish that he ran
like 90% of his team's routes in week one.
He didn't perform. But like, yeah.
That like kind of just a simple, right?
I got some four points and so he actually Actually, he had an
average depth, he had an ADA about 10 and a half which for
for somebody where we were worried do, like, he's just a
gadget guy. That's super encouraging, he
played. I think he played two turds of a
snaps on the outside, so not as a slot receiver. again, super
encouraging for so many that we had already pencil, hold in for
a To be just a gadget player and am.
I guess my my he didn't he obviously didn't get the points.
He didn't score that many points and he didn't his Target juror
was not that high but I do think that for a guy he actually runs
a sub for tree super productive in college athletic freak.
Yeah. Yeah.
Like super freak and like so many different combine
measurements and if now he has a role Where he's also getting
downfield targets. Like I don't know that's just
like I'm a probably around Elmer a, super fun and we'll pick 140
like you want to talk about making a wide receiver at later
and drops. Like that's like that's to me.
That's the smash. Yeah.
And I'll be honest, I was fading Rondell more this offseason, he
was around and pick 110 but I'm adjusting my priors.
The fact that he was seeing that many steps, I did not anticipate
that and the fact that we saw Greg Dortch perform in a pretty
similar role that I think was kind of designed for Rondell.
So at a price of 140, certainly buying.
I think actually in the drafted today I did a Kyler double stack
with Rondell and and Hopkins and felt pretty good about the price
for Rondell. So yeah I'm adjusting like good
roll Week 1 the I'm not too worried about like the A Fantasy
Point performance, stop being there.
Given how strong the role was? I think he's talented enough to
flash there. Cool.
This chart. Now we finally finally moved on
to the 65 to 85 percent of routes run guys, I think a lot
of names in the strong performers you'd expect Mike
Evans, Stefon, Diggs, Jalen waddle Drake, London hovering
there, I think maybe London is an interesting guy to talk about
Draco because he's been good. Like his role has been awesome.
He's earning This insane Target share the fantasy Point numbers
have been like good, not not awesome.
You definitely had a down week. I'm just I guess like how
worried are you about the overall situation in Atlanta and
do you think that Jake London's Talent can shine through?
I think we're seeing that. Like, Kyle Pitts is Talent is
like failing to shine through there and I guess I'm like a
little bit worried that that could happen to London for a
stretch of the season. And is that a fair concern?
Or how are you? How are you viewing London with
you know his price of around 50, 43, ATP, Underdog fantasy?
How are you doing way? I see it.
Is that if you look at boat London and pits, if you look at
their /, / wrote numbers, they're excellent.
When they say, when the Falcons decided to throw the ball London
and Pitt's absolutely eat. A feast and the problem as we've
been talking about for most of the show is that they just
haven't been thrown the ball enough.
Yeah. And I think that that is is
generally, the kind of situation that you do want to attack of
where the talent is so good and so obvious that nobody can deny
it. The situation just hasn't been
ideal. And generally would with
somebody with a sit with something like that.
Probably would like a little bit more of a discount and then pick
43. But yeah, and if you're asking
me, do I want to fade or or even be light on Drake London, I done
it. I don't think I can do that and
because there are just so many ways that the situation can get
much better and like the the Falcons are like.
I know that they have won some games but they're losing games
that they kind of shouldn't really be and and I don't, I
don't think that they can continue playing the way that
they have and this kind of links into Chris's point that we need
had Desmond Ritter to unlock and those that receivers and I mean,
I don't want to put the blame on Marcus Mariota either the blame
lies with it artists MIT and their conservative like calling
and what I just don't think I can last forever.
Yeah well maybe you can last forever.
I'm just willing to I'm just kind of willing to buy on the on
the Hope or that what I perceive to be as kind of like a really
big smash situation. If it does reverse That's fair.
Yeah, I think I think you sold me a little bit there on London
that the roll is just so strong and I did.
Yeah, I kind of made this point earlier in Atlanta that they've
had some weird games, scrip stuff that I think they'll be
forced to throwing more at some point and that case London and
even pets to a lesser extent. I think I think I can smash.
Other other points I wanted to make on this chart, I think Juju
and dubs. We've talked about the Packers
and Casey situations before, but I think Juju and dubs are
separating a little bit from the rest of their teammates from a
Target earning perspective. We're not really seeing it in
the box score for my fantasy point perspective, but I think
it's pretty clear. I think this is the consensus
take as well. It's not going to shock anyone.
I think it's pretty clear that those are the guys.
As you want in their respective offenses at wide receiver and my
like incredibly excited about either.
No, I think I'm a little more excited about dubs.
Oh my God, dubs there, my doves going to pick 75.
I think he was going at 100 something last week.
So, yeah, I picked 75. I'm not like dying to get dubs
and then JuJu's, going a picks 73.
So the market is seeing these guys.
Similarly, I think they're the number one wide receiver.
Weaver's on their teams but not like impressive wide receiver,
one rolls necessary. Yeah, so that's the thing
though. Those who did not an impressive
road but yet, and I, I don't know about you, but when I,
whenever I look at a rookies, kind of like an early season are
utilization. I always, I always kind of liked
it just for what I think it'll look like in the back half,
Which is higher and for me, when you see so many play well, and I
I think that you have to especially a young player, you
have to kind of like expect that as they play.
Well, they do get a bigger role. And and I think we've talked
about this on the show before where the other options at wide
receiver. So bad for the Packers that They
are just going to have no choice.
At some point, you're going to have no choice but like, okay.
He's the guy that gives us a chance to win the game.
Gotta get him. Yeah.
I mean, I think that's, I think that's fair.
Yeah. I mean I'm take tubs over Juju.
I guess it's like we're talking about this, those two guys but
you know, he's going ahead of Tyler Lockett ahead of DJ more.
He's going ahead of George, Pickens Trail on Burks.
I don't know, I guess like I don't heat the ranking that he's
in at wide receiver but I just think it's kind of like a pretty
flat tear once you get to that point and I'm Maybe looking in
other directions, they're actually have already of already
scooped, a handful of water severs.
I don't think there's like a ton separating Dobbs from even
someone like Jameson Williams in this Resurrection format as soon
as we get him back at some point.
So I might just kind of like attack that same breakout rookie
wide receiver profile but just get it from a guy who has hired
draft capital and is going at a cheaper price.
But, you know, I don't need, I don't write just plenty of very
talented receivers in that range.
Yeah, quick hitter Gallop again similar points around a lot
more, he's back in like almost a full-time role in the 80-85
percent range. His first week back.
I think that's pretty bullish, scooping Gallop in any leaks or
he's available and, you know, maybe even firing him in DFS a
little bit because I think there could be some some breakout
games for Gallop, even if he didn't earn Targets in his first
week back. Draco.
Anything. We're now moved on to the last
tier of wide receivers are going to talk about today, guys, in
the 40 to 65 percent of proud strong category, some names and
never heard of here. But anybody anybody that pop out
to you as interesting on this chart and honestly not, maybe
maybe I'm wrong but not really Lee.
It does kind of look like a lot of lower Talent wide receivers
are playing lower amounts of Schnapps and getting lower
opportunity, probably them out. The biggest thing that pops out
to me is is sadness at seeing a cage, a hammer.
And the and the cardio specialist and section that.
That's a sad one with David Belle to yeah, I don't think
there's anything like huge to talk about this chart.
I will say, I think Mackenzie and Duvernay are interesting
from the perspective that they had injured teammates Mackenzie
with Crowder I think this is pretty serious ankle injury and
Duvernay with Bateman having a foot Sprain and those guys have
earned dicen not great but but decent rolls on limited route.
So maybe more of the DFS flyer category.
There and then Julio. I think I was excited about
Julio after week one. I now think he's more of a
contingent value bet than someone, you can really start
confidently, but I think when he is on the field, he's a guy that
Brady is going to be looking to. I think there's going to be a
lot more conservative with how much they play in.
At least we saw that last week where gauge is running ahead of
them and I think, I think they may be kind of, like, in Gronk
mode with them, where they're going to sort of rest him.
For the playoffs. But if anything were to happen
to Mike Evans or Godwin, again, I think Julio should be stashed
as sort of a contingent play and we don't that we don't have them
on the chart because I don't believe he's gotten enough air
routes or targets and but with and the amount of injuries
buffalo have gotten, I think MacKenzie's time's up.
I think routers actually hurt now because he has A concussion.
Yeah, and Gabe is buying up and someone that does kind of pop
out a little bit is Khalil Shakur and he's only around 19
routes into games and Bunny. Those are 50% waited to Target
for, right run. And then, That as somebody who
could play more a lot more snacks and an explosive offense
and he is I think he's a rookie that we should be keeping tabs
on. And if you're if you are
struggling for wide receiver and you need some upside of wide
receiver would be very interested in them and them.
Let's see. Where is he?
In the piece, the last pick. And he's, I think he's an
excellent must pick in the resurrection.
And he's probably an interesting play in DFS, like just somebody
who has an exciting. Rookie who has don't be sent
with opportunity and could, we could get a higher share in
future weeks. Yep, and along those lines.
The other guy, not in this chart SkyWars role.
It's worth noting that did increase quite a bit.
I think he'd only seen, like, 328 snaps in the first couple
weeks, and he was up closer to 25% or something like that in
week, four. So that's how I got a monitor.
If he's been dropped any leaks even you like shower leaks.
I would recommend adding Sky more because like we talked
about Kansas City. None of these guys are doing
anything. Besides Kelsey, really JuJu's
like been the best, but still very math.
What are you learning perspective?
So if Scott Moore is good, there's an easy path for him to
to explode there. So I think I found besides 83%
way to Target paret run, like, only 18 routes, but that's
absolutely Elite even if that would work to regress.
So mad, he were to get a better role like that's, that's a very
kind of production. Situation.
You're looking at there? Yep.
Yeah. So that's got more in all your
leagues for sure. Easily worth $125 in the main
event. What remind me what my
recommended bid was and what was the second lowest bid?
Did I nail that? Or I forget.
No I do and our main event that we had a heated discussions
about about the value of Sky more monsters, what referring
to? We ended up getting him and I
think we're all family. Happy.
Especially since we had some injuries, a lot of receiver but
let's move on to two tight end to finish up the show Draco
laughing, Atta cases, comment we need to put Kenny Ali in his own
quadrant. That's it winning the quietly
quadrants that's the retiring at halftime quadrant we can put him
in Al Robinson. There man, Koenig all day looks
looks bad. Oh yeah, I guess like finishing
up water Seaver. The that Gall that points.
Got me thinking, I think the Giants wide receiver situation
is like so disgusting right now that you should be adding Tony
and Juan Del Robinson in any League.
You can I think they're both probably like they're going to
be owned in your main event type leagues, but in your shallower
leagues are probably on the wire.
And I'm definitely interested in those guys because there's an
easy path for them to emerge. The number one, Wide Receiver
right now for the Giants just like, Richie James and David
cells and Darius late, and I thought was banished, he's back
in there, running route. So grab grab Lawndale Tony, for
sure. I pick 155 for Tony, I wasn't
drafted and him at all in early and what one pick 55.
And with the shorter season, even one Tony game probably gets
you like, the I don't like talking about paying off ATP but
it's just like - Her do that. He needs to hit at his new price
is so low that he does become the screaming value.
Yeah. Okay cool.
Let's I totally agree with that. Let's finish with tight end
quickly. So I think here this chart, you
know, People are going to be worried about Kyle pits and I
think we have to talk people off the ledge one last time.
The role is not great. It's, it's still from a Target
learning perspective and from an Eda perspective.
However, he still seeing the second highest targets for
Route, Ron up any tight end for sure.
I third-highest Hearts around of any tight, end that seeing more
than 60% of teams routes, he seen the highest a DOT of any
type. Been seeing more than 60% of
their teens routes. So he is sort of being treated
like a wide receiver, like an elite wide receiver when he's on
the field running routes but he is pass blocking a lot more than
you would like. And that part of it is knowing
but again like I would still be taking hits as the third tight
end off the board after Andrews. And Kelsey, I just think there
is like, quite a big tear break from Andrews Kelsey to pits.
Compared to how I saw the beginning of the year, but, and
now he's going to pick 48. Yeah, now he's gone.
And we're Waller was going at certain points in the off season
last year. So, I mean, it's one of those
things where the price is caught up to the role.
And that is definitely a situation where or yet a
situation where the role isn't, what you wanted to be.
The situation is one of the be, but the talent is, and if you
can take a discount on bet on that talents and then the
situation goes your way, like, can you imagine like the money
printing, if cockpits those hit, I pick 50.
Like, yeah. And last year, when when I won
the ffiec basketball tournament, 11 of 12 teams had Mark Andrews
just because he was so cheap because of the situation and he
smashed so hard because of the talent and obviously you need
some. You need some crazy things to
happen for that to be called pits.
But it is it is now that sort of price and talent and where you
could get something like that. Yeah.
Yeah, I agree with that Krista is why I grabbed pits when you
can take Everett obviously, that's somewhat sarcastic but I
think it's worth noting that adverts role here is is pretty
good. 20% targets for out rotten close to a 1080 dot which is
what we see with some of the top tight ends.
So you know, he's not running all of the routes for his team
but I think that when he's on the field Herbert is looking to
him and he kind of looked he like looks like a wide receiver
out there. I don't know if I'm fooled by
the fact, he's wearing number seven this year.
But when I see him catch the ball, like oh, that wide
receiver, looks good, who is that?
And then it's Gerald. Everett he has some Yak
abilities. So I like a directors from the
perspective that he's running enough routes and is on an
explosive offense, on a team, that doesn't have like great,
secondary pass catchers. So I like a certainly Mike
Everitt certainly where he was going this summer.
Now the price is caught up to that a little bit.
He's he's going at pick 93 in the best or Resurrection so you
know I'm actually maybe in a back title track a little bit on
my take at that price. I'm probably like looking
towards other positions. That's a little expensive but I
guess compared to where you drafted in the summer you should
be really happy about Everett given his role of It's so far.
So would you would you take Everett over Hawkinson?
I asked that as you School scored 40 points last week.
Yeah I don't think Hawkinson over Everett.
I'm just a little bit more of a believer in the talent with
Hawkinson with that draft capital and he is he has a bit
of a stronger role, but I'm kind of, I don't know.
I don't know if I'm taking either at the 90s.
There's just so many tie-downs going later than that, that I'm
comfortable with. If I'm not getting one of Of the
lead guys, I'm probably just waiting and taking the Hayden
Hearst. Evan engram.
Tyler Conklin types. You know, five rounds later.
And well, I did watch Hayden her stat on Thursday night and you
don't really see it here, but he he kind of looks like a beast.
Yeah. But he's out there, man.
He's got the red red flow going out there as well looks good.
He's having more of a tight end that it was cheaper.
Yeah. Yeah I think hearse is good.
I mean like it just goes back to the principle of you know, get
guys who have like full-time roles on good offenses and even
if they're not that good they can they can profit.
And I think you know her says it been like this amazing smash,
but I think you're definitely happy and sort of sort of like a
tie, then to invest ball, that's gonna give you some some spikes
there. I've never taught it.
I'll stick it on on the tight ends Draco, I think maybe like
something worth noting. Is that Alberto?
Who does show up here his role as like been evaporated?
He I think you got one snap last week and dulcich from the latest
reporting. I think is due back this week.
So actually, I think they can release them from Iowa or
whatever the right care of his Yeah activating.
Yeah, activate them. Yeah.
But I don't I don't I don't know if they if they're ready to play
them yet. But and I definitely very
interested in now and dulcich out of pick to 1214.
Yep. So I just looked into it till
such apparently is not going to play Thursday, but he could, I
think he's due back soon. So I'll probably adding, I'm
trying to maybe add dosage for a dollar on teams ready to try to
end before, like he gets piped out.
He could be, you could be nothing, you could not be good
but I think there's opportunity for him, they liked him in the
preseason, they clearly don't like Alberto.
So I'm I'm looking at dulcich for for cheap and some of these
leagues. Last, let's say negative
comments section. Yeah.
Patreon. I don't know these special
Awards. So this is, yeah, if you want to
see the tight ends with 10 to 40% of routes run, that is
actually behind the pay wall. People have been begging me to
release that chart but that's you gotta make a living somehow
That's so good. So some has has held true to his
word and you as if you were the way we're going to do this,
you're going to get my side of it for free, but if you want to
hear some side, you gotta pay up.
Ah, no. Actually, I believe that he
messaged me just before this started his laptop, charger was
acting funny and that he might die at any moment and it Here's
that he picked the just the right amount at the right moment
to forget the battery to give out.
And so it looks like you're stuck with me for it to take us
home, Trudy add the backup, tight end, and Portion and
suppose really what we're looking for here is guys who
when they do get on the field at can earn Target, share and it
does seem like the Browns have been using at tight end a good
bit Hayden Harrison Bryant looks like someone with solid
contingent value there and Johnny Smith and if he can ever
earn a bigger wrist, snap share as usual, someone who could be
exciting and but really you were, I guess at tight end,
you're looking to kind of turn and we take advantage of that of
playing time situation, spiking kind of like when you can
predict a happen, But that at that's gonna do us and I've lost
the lost the chart as some has dropped off the broadcast and
then we will see, you will see you next week.