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Welcome to Week 3 where we are 
going to review charts and mourn

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our best ball portfolios because
we are officially poor since we 

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have no Saquon Barkley. 
This is stat chasing Pat Fryer 

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Helmo. 
This is why. 

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This is why I'm hot. 
Anita handjob fix your side, 

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Jamar. 
Alpha play, Chase, you can't 

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handle the heat. 
It looks like we're finally at 

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this point here, right? 
Week 3 we are. 

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What is it? 
Just basically a little bit over

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20% of the way through the 
regular season so far until we 

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get to fantasy playoffs. 
Yeah, Yeah. 

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We're, we've gotten what we're 
coming up on and then so it's 16

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weeks. 
So after next week, we'll be 25%

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of the way there. 
Oh, I was, I was like 14 weeks 

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for fantasy play and then week 
15 fantasy. 

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Play. 
Oh, oh, right. 

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Yeah, yeah, yeah. 
Sorry I had a brain fart, but 

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you're right. 
Week four, we yeah, you're 

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right. 
So 25 something like 20% of the 

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way there. 
And then even even in, in, in 

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main event season, we are 
actually 1/4 of the way there. 

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Yeah, regular season, yeah. 
And Saquon Barkley, 

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unfortunately, is still kicking 
our shit in. 

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Taking our lunch money. 
Yeah, I, I did a little bit of a

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data dive and went back and 
looked at basketball mania for 

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advance rates through, from 
every week basically through 

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week 14 and, and wanted to see 
what percentage, yeah, what 

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percentage of teams that were 
advancing, say in Week 3, we're 

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still advancing By the time it 
got to week 14, it didn't make 

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me feel any better. 
It was like surprising how 

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sticky. 
So not great if you're, you 

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know, if you're thinking it's a 
long season. 

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We got a lot of time for stuff 
to come together, that's true, 

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but also it's not that long. 
Right. 

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And, and what makes me feel 
better is when you have a high 

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advance rate season because you,
you hit on a few key, key 

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players, when you get to the 
playoffs, you you're just really

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relying on that same player that
everybody else has. 

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And a lot of those extra teams 
that you get in are weak outside

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of that one player, whereas when
and and these kind of and and 

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hopefully it's not, but in 
what's looking like a low 

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advance rate season and the 
teams that you do get true 

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despite not having that player 
tend to be really good. 

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So that, that that's kind of 
what that's my copium. 

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That's, that's some great 
acopium. 

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I mean, what I'm what I'm 
relying on at this point is that

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I, I mean, the only guy that 
I've really faded where I'm 

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like, yeah, that's one where if 
knowing what I know now, like 

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getting to see it play out, if I
could go back, I probably would 

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draft more Saquon. 
But honestly, all the other 

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fades, like I'm still OK fading.
Alvin Kamara after seeing this 

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week, I think talking about the 
Saints is going to be really 

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interesting. 
With that, we should we should 

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segue to the charts because the 
Saints are a really interesting 

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one to me. 
I think talking about them as a 

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team from the quarterback chart 
is a a good segue here. 

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But we were lied to Draco. 
We thought that the Saints or 

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this high flying, you know, 
going to be exciting offense. 

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They're doing all this play 
action, all this pre snap 

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motion. 
We were pretty sure that Kubiak 

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had Unchained them and Derek 
Carr was going to be the best 

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version of himself we'd ever 
seen. 

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And it turns out the Saints 
aren't actually pass heavy. 

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We thought they might be just 
purely because, you know, they, 

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they didn't have to pass in 
those. 

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They, they, so the Saints are 11
-, 11% pass rate over 

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expectation. 
So they're 11% under 

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expectation. 
And so, and they did and they 

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were like that even in, in high 
run heavy game scripts before 

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they were they, they were 
actually passing less than a 

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low, a low expectation. 
And so this would that now they 

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enter the game where their, 
their expectation is a little 

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higher and, and they still 
passed way underneath that. 

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And so -11% on the year. 
Yeah, the the -11% on the year 

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is definitely concerning. 
I really what it just tells me 

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is we might have jumped the gun 
a little bit on the Saints being

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such a fun offense. 
They'll probably be an efficient

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offense, but they just might not
have the volume to ascend to 

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this truly elite offense. 
So I, I mean, we're seeing Derek

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Carr start to come back down to 
earth with his adjusted yards 

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per attempt after a, a down game
against the Eagles there. 

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But yeah, I, I really, I, I 
think that as a whole, the 

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Saints will still be fine for 
fantasy, but it might not be the

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scorched earth season that we 
are thinking after the first two

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weeks. 
Yeah, yeah. 

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And I, I, I guess and, and, and 
so I, I think you, you'd noted 

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in the private chat that I was 
having some audio issues and 

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just want to make know that 
we're at the start of the show. 

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Do you have, have we fixed 
those? 

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I fixed it. 
Let me, let me talk. 

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I can still hear myself echo a 
tiny bit through your. 

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End. 
But I'm not sure if that's just 

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coming through for me or if 
that's OK everyone. 

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So if you're in the chat, please
let us know if you're getting 

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some echo. 
OK, OK, thanks. 

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Thanks for the the all good and 
so on on Derek Carr. 

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I guess they they they did go 
for those deep shots to Shaheed.

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Just the difference this week is
that they missed on those. 

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Right. 
They did have they had some 

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nice, nice completions to Olave 
and but it does it does make me 

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wonder is if when they on the 
weeks where they hit on deep 

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shots to Shaheed, they're going 
to be efficient. 

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And on the weeks where they 
don't, they're not like it might

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be too early to, to, to be at 
that conclusion, but that that, 

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that, that, that that's, that's 
kind of the direction I'm 

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heading. 
Yeah, I think the efficiency 

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still can be there as a whole, 
with or without the deep shots 

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in a given week. 
I just, obviously the weeks 

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where they hit the deep shots 
are going to be a lot more fun. 

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I I just think that the volume 
is not really going to be there 

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now, granted no volume. 
No, the Eagles. 

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The Eagles didn't. 
Really. 

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And they were at, they were at 
4.7 adjusted yards per attempt 

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this week and after a 14 point 
911.3 and, and, and maybe maybe 

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I'm being too binary here and, 
but missing on those deep shots 

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is going to make a big 
difference there. 

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And I think, I do think that's a
big part of the difference. 

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Yeah, no, that's, that's fair. 
I I definitely. 

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Non derogatory I hope. 
No, yeah, not non derogatory. 

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That's fair. 
Let's let's move on from Derek 

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Carr and go to the right side of
the chart. 

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But still someone with an 
extremely high adjusted yards 

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per attempt and that is Andy 
Dalton. 

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I don't think anyone is under 
the delusion that Andy Dalton is

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going to maintain, you know, 
north of A10 adjusted yards per 

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attempt and this level of 
volume. 

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But I think we we definitely 
could get some fun quarterback 

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games out of Andy Dalton. 
What do you think is a 

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reasonable kind of range to 
project for him going forward? 

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And that's that's really 
difficult. 

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I think I think you can probably
get that 20, honestly, I think 

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it's achievable for him to get 
something along the lines of 20 

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points a game. 
And because the Panthers, 

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obviously they they they they 
beat the Raiders pretty badly, 

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but they still don't seem like 
this great team. 

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So they probably will have to 
throw a lot. 

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And but 111 some of the things 
that stand out to me about Andy 

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Dalton here is that his time to 
throw is really low. 

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His A dot was really low. 
And yet he was having this great

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efficiency, great success. 
And I do know that the half the 

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Raiders defense was kind of 
injured this week, including 

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what's the what's the, the 
defensive end that they have Max

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Crosby. 
Yeah, he, he, he had some foot 

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pain or something like that. 
So I but I do wonder if they 

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were missing some kind of key 
starter this week. 

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And there was some there was a 
week there was a liability on 

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their team that they were just 
going over after and over and 

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over and over again. 
And, and that had some big piece

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to do with their success because
it, it, it seems very unusual to

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be able to troll quickly and, 
and, and short and then have 

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efficiency over and over and 
over again that, that that 

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doesn't strike me as something 
where that that's going to be 

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super sustainable in the NFL. 
Now remind me, who do they play 

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this week? 
Is it? 

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I want to say it's the Bengals, 
is that right? 

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So Carolina Panthers, Oh yeah, 
they do play the Bengals because

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it's like, it's the, the makeup 
game, isn't it? 

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For for Andy Dalton. 
Oh, there you go. 

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So that that could actually be a
fun one. 

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And you had you had mentioned 
when we were talking before the 

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show that you thought Joe Burrow
was in an interesting potential 

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positive regression spot. 
So what do you think about, you 

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know, Joe Burrow, you know, both
from a season long level and 

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also just in this matchup going 
forward against the Panthers? 

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So I think it it depends. 
It depends on how much weight 

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you want to give to the that New
England game. 

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He played pretty purely in that 
game. 

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And you can make the excuse that
they lost T Higgins late in the 

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week, that Jamar Chase was just 
back from a holdout and that 

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that caused some big issues. 
But if, I guess, if, if you, if 

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you include that and then also 
include the game last night 

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where they were super efficient,
but then playing this kind of 

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bad defense and then you add the
Chiefs game in, he actually, 

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he's been playing pretty 
efficiently. 

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So they have a, he's at 8.2 
adjusted yards per tent, which 

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is pretty good. 
And, and then when you look at 

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the touchdown stuff, so they, 
they've been under about 0.8 

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touchdowns over his, over his 
expectation. 

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So he's been playing well in 
terms of the yardage and stuff 

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like that. 
They just haven't been getting 

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the touchdowns. 
So to me, and they've actually 

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been trying a decent amount. 
So their pass rate over 

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expectation over those three 
weeks is 7% and they've been at 

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a 70% rate. 
So they've been throwing a lot, 

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throwing on a yardage basis 
pretty efficiently. 

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But they've underachieved when 
it comes to the touchdowns 

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against, I mean, the Patriots 
and then the Chiefs having two. 

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Those be two of the three games 
like I I think that more than 

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what like balances out having 
the the commander's game in 

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there as well. 
So I that kind of strikes me as 

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him playing well and then I I 
don't know how much this is 

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going to sustain over season 
given that they lost it looks 

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like a key offensive lineman, 
but they've been fifth in the 

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league in past block win rate. 
So I, I think that that that 

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does strike me as despite it 
being somewhat disappointing 

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start, that does strike me as 
something where and you, you you

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could get a lot of fantasy 
goodness there. 

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Yeah, definitely an interesting 
game to attack potentially on 

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both sides, both quarterbacks 
looking. 

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I, I mean, do you think it's a 
fair assessment to say both of 

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these guys will probably remain 
in this top right quadrant as we

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progress throughout the season? 
So I think Joe Burrow is, I feel

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pretty confident that he's going
to have a good year this year. 

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And they're they're Owen Tree. 
They're probably feeling pretty 

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bad and that the commander's 
loss is going to be painful. 

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Their defense doesn't seem to be
playing very well either, but 

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their offense, their passing 
offense is playing at a pretty 

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high level. 
They've just underachieved on 

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the touchdowns. 
Andy Dalton and I think is 

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probably going to get there on a
lot more volume. 

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I think he can probably be 
reasonable efficiency over the 

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course of the year. 
But him being like top, top 

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right, I, I, I, I I don't, I 
don't see that like, and that's 

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not that's not a controversial 
thing to say. 

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I think he can be pretty close 
to the middle and maybe in in 

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that top right quadrant, but 
towards the bottom left of it. 

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But like a a Jared Goff type 
efficiency or a Dak Prescott 

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type efficiency maybe maybe with
like a Matt Stafford efficiency 

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kind of as. 
A yeah, yeah, yeah. 

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In that range. 
In that range, you're not 

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comping them to those players. 
You're saying that in in in this

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range, correct. 
He he, he, he, he can be 

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certainly. 
Because the other thing that's 

224
00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,120
interesting about the the 
Panthers and let me pull this up

225
00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:29,880
so that I have the exact number.
Oh, God dammit, Andy Dalton. 

226
00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:34,600
There he is. 
They're yeah, they're I, I guess

227
00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:39,400
the other thing to note, their 
online has not been the the 

228
00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:43,440
best. 
So their, their, their pass 

229
00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:49,240
block win rate is just 50%. 
And then Andy Dalton, he was 

230
00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:54,160
able to overcome that, which is 
a 2 seconds time to throw and 

231
00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:59,440
throwing short. 
So yeah, I, I, I'm, I'm just as 

232
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:03,920
I dig deep more deep dive more 
into this. 

233
00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:08,320
That does strike me as something
where if they, if they play a 

234
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:12,200
team with a little better 
coverage, they, they could 

235
00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,280
struggle a lot more than that 
for sure. 

236
00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:19,480
But with the, with the caveat 
that there will be volume there.

237
00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:23,400
And then I think I remember one 
of the stats, one of the key 

238
00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:27,200
stats of the game for the 
Bengals being that their pass 

239
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:32,520
rush win rate was really bad. 
So they were they, they, they, 

240
00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:37,200
they only got pressure on Jaden 
Daniels something like 10% of 

241
00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:40,560
the time. 
And, and that was a big part of,

242
00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:45,160
of, of him winning. 
Or if they if, if they, if they 

243
00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,960
struggle again and get the 
Panthers against the Panthers 

244
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:53,240
and give him time, then, then 
then I, I certainly you could 

245
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,840
see some more production from 
the Panthers. 

246
00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:02,720
Yeah, I I think that all is 
pretty reasonable. 

247
00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:07,600
So definitely looking forward to
that Cincinnati and Carolina 

248
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,760
game this week. 
Let's let's move on to a couple 

249
00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,040
other bright spots on the 
quarterback chart. 

250
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:18,000
We'll focus on two of the best 
passers in the league and that 

251
00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:23,280
is Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy. 
Just like we all expected, Sam 

252
00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:29,240
Darnold getting sufficiency with
an absolutely absurd touchdown 

253
00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:33,280
rate of over 10%. 
I mean, he is just lighting it 

254
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,960
up. 
Brock Purdy is this efficient 

255
00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:40,360
with surprisingly a 4.2% 
touchdown rate. 

256
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:46,280
So do you think that, I mean, 
it, it kind of all fits together

257
00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,000
neatly when you kind of think 
through it logically for the 

258
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,240
49ers. 
But when they start getting some

259
00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,760
of their weapons back, if Purdy 
plays as well as he's been 

260
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:59,240
playing, I mean it could be a a 
pretty massive positive 

261
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,880
regression spot for Purdy if 
he's converting more of these 

262
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:05,400
touchdowns. 
Yeah, I I agree. 

263
00:17:05,599 --> 00:17:09,440
And and and and talking about 
some of the the online stuff. 

264
00:17:09,599 --> 00:17:12,839
And so they had a they had a he 
had a tree he has over the 

265
00:17:12,839 --> 00:17:15,599
season has a 3.2 seconds time to
throw, which is one of the 

266
00:17:15,599 --> 00:17:18,359
highest. 
And their online is really good.

267
00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,119
They had the play action pass. 
So all of that is kind of coming

268
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:27,240
together for a really high yeah,
yardage per attempt and this and

269
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,440
and and that's despite, like you
said, a low touchdown rate. 

270
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:32,520
So coming in on their 
expectation. 

271
00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:36,640
So when they get their weapons 
back that that could certainly 

272
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:40,800
be some fireworks. 
I I guess the only the only 

273
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:46,680
thing that about the the the big
game he had against the Rams. 

274
00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,800
The Rams are kind of profiling 
as as this kind of get right 

275
00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:54,120
defense as well, aren't they? 
Yeah, absolutely there is. 

276
00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:57,760
I, I was making a list of the 
teams that you want to be. 

277
00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:00,480
I mean, you know, we're only 
three games in, but it's already

278
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,200
starting to get clear who you 
want to be targeting for 

279
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,040
fantasy. 
And the Rams are certainly one, 

280
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:11,040
the Panthers are definitely one.
The Bengals, the Commanders, the

281
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:15,480
Cowboys, though, those are all 
really, you know, teams where 

282
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,280
you're really happy to be 
starting your weapons against 

283
00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,680
them just because they have a 
combination of most of those 

284
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,240
teams are are pretty poor 
defensively. 

285
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:26,840
And they're also willing to 
pass. 

286
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,560
Oh, throw the Colts in there as 
well, because the Colts have a 

287
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,520
pretty bad defense and they've 
been, you know, playing fast. 

288
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,480
Anthony Richards either, you 
know, throwing a touchdown or 

289
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:41,840
throwing an interception. 
So yeah, and and then I I guess 

290
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,880
so I'm just looking after the 
adjusted yards per temp for 

291
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:49,000
Purdy by week. 
So he's got in in, in week 1, he

292
00:18:49,000 --> 00:19:00,640
was 8 week two 8.2 and then then
11.8 on in week 3. 

293
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:05,400
So I think it's fair to say that
that third week is kind of an 

294
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:09,760
outlier, but still going to live
in the top right hand side of 

295
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,880
this chart. 
Yeah, definitely. 

296
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,000
I mean, it's just kind of if 
you're in one of these, you 

297
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:20,720
know, Shannon scan systems like 
it is what you need to win in 

298
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:25,400
the NFL right now And right guys
are they're executing the 

299
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,000
systems they're in well enough 
to be very efficient. 

300
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,120
And that is what's good in the 
league right now. 

301
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:36,200
That or you can just do what 
Kyler Murray is doing and add 

302
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:41,040
some yardage on the ground as 
well and also just be able to 

303
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,440
hit, you know, Marvin Harrison 
junior for deep bombs. 

304
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,040
But you know, the the extra 
touchdown of fantasy production 

305
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:53,920
plus every game from the rushing
yards certainly doesn't hurt 

306
00:19:54,120 --> 00:19:57,840
Kyler Murray. 
And he actually gets the matchup

307
00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:02,360
of the week where you get Jane 
Daniels, where these guys are 

308
00:20:02,360 --> 00:20:05,840
kind of similar in, you know, 
they're they're both rushing 

309
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:09,000
quarterbacks. 
They're both, you know, they're 

310
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,440
not like some of the other 
Russian quarterbacks like. 

311
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:16,120
Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, where
they're more like the bigger 

312
00:20:16,120 --> 00:20:19,800
bodied guys, like more physical 
goal line vulture potential. 

313
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,280
These guys are just they're, 
they're more like the Lamar 

314
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,160
archetype where they can just 
like really hurt you with their 

315
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:27,040
legs. 
Now. 

316
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,560
Kyler's not getting as much 
design stuff as Lamar is. 

317
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:35,080
You know, I, I think Lamar leads
both Daniels and Kyler as far as

318
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:36,640
how many design runs he's 
getting. 

319
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,920
But both of these guys will 
really make the defense pay if 

320
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,240
they're just going to sit back 
and leave a lot of space. 

321
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,800
So I, I think both of them, 
especially with how weak the 

322
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:51,000
commander's defense has been set
up for a really fun back and 

323
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,960
forth shootout game. 
But I mean, that's what I said 

324
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,360
about Philly in New Orleans this
last week. 

325
00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:02,680
We saw how that turned out. 
Yeah, And the, I, I guess the, 

326
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:06,600
the Philly New Orleans one, we 
were, we were kind of expecting 

327
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,520
Philly to be this bad defense 
because they, they gave up a 

328
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:14,160
surprising amount of production 
to the Falcons the week before. 

329
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:21,440
But then maybe, maybe it either 
is a solid defense or they're 

330
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,720
solid against the run. 
And that's what New Orleans 

331
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,680
wanted to do. 
Whereas I, I guess now we have a

332
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:32,080
little bit more data on, on 
these two defenses of them kind 

333
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:35,280
of getting shredded that we can 
be a little bit more confident 

334
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,440
that they are actually the ones 
that you want to attack. 

335
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,320
Yeah. 
And and just to touch on the the

336
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,880
Philly and New Orleans game, I 
mean, that game had a potential 

337
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,600
still to be a shootout. 
I know the the final box score 

338
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:50,680
did not look like it, but I 
mean, really it was a couple bad

339
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,440
turnovers by the Eagles. 
But I think let the Saints 

340
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,880
really like slow the game down 
and, you know, just be more 

341
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,960
confident because if you don't 
have that Jalen Hurts 

342
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,480
interception in the end zone, 
which to be fair to Jalen Hurts,

343
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,720
that was actually just a bad 
route by Devonta Smith. 

344
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:09,480
Like he he just did like the 
cardinal sin that you can do as 

345
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,960
a wide receiver, which is like 
turn and see the ball and then 

346
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:13,400
be like, all right, I'm just 
going to wait here. 

347
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,840
Hope it gets here on time and 
just left it open for Tyrion 

348
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,880
Matthew to jump the route and 
and go ahead and take that away 

349
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,480
in the end zone. 
That was pretty frustrating to 

350
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,040
see as someone who was playing 
Hertz and Devon Smith in a lot 

351
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,040
of places. 
And then you also had the Jalen 

352
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,960
Hurts fumble later. 
So you just had stuff that, you 

353
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,560
know, to stop points from 
getting on the board. 

354
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:40,720
And then the Saints did not 
agree with, you know, our desire

355
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,040
of having that game be a a 
fast-paced, high scoring game. 

356
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,840
And so they really kind of kind 
of soured that one. 

357
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:51,480
But I mean, if I were looking 
for a way for I think both these

358
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:55,000
games that we've kind of touched
on early with the, you know, 

359
00:22:55,240 --> 00:23:00,400
Cardinals and Commanders and the
Bengals and the Panthers, both 

360
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:05,480
of these ones, the way I really 
see them failing would be like 

361
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,160
the Cardinals get out to an 
early lead and they're willing 

362
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,240
to run the ball because they're,
they're happy to give a lot of 

363
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,680
carries to James Conner if they 
get the lead. 

364
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,840
I want to look up the Cardinals 
PROE here. 

365
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:22,440
And yeah, they have been a 
negative PROE team just -4%. 

366
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,800
So, you know, if they can get to
a lead, you know, only 52% pass 

367
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:28,400
rate. 
So they are, they are willing to

368
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:30,560
to run the ball. 
So what you're really hoping for

369
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:34,880
there is that the commanders are
going to get out to a lead and 

370
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,560
push the Cardinals, right? 
What do? 

371
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,840
You and I think that's a fair 
expectation, right? 

372
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:45,080
Where like they, I, I think I 
saw something that the, the, the

373
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,040
commanders have not had to punt 
in like 2 weeks or something 

374
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:49,960
like that. 
Yeah, two games that they 

375
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:54,000
haven't had to punt. 
And then Daniels is like, he's 

376
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:58,080
actually, he's so dynamic where 
he's a rusher, he's like a 

377
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,400
productive troller. 
And, and and then they did add 

378
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:05,880
this kind of deep ball option to
their offense now, which so 

379
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,120
they're they're stretched 
vertically as well. 

380
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:13,280
I, I, I I think the way the game
fails is if if like the 

381
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,960
commanders have like this calm 
down game. 

382
00:24:16,360 --> 00:24:19,320
Yeah, I mean, really what you're
just hoping for is Cliff 

383
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,600
Kingsbury is willing to get out 
of the way this time. 

384
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,520
Like he, he did it with Kyler 
where he did this horizontal 

385
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:30,160
rate thing and it was just, you 
know, it, it left a lot to be 

386
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,440
desired. 
We saw that through the 1st 2 

387
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,520
games with Daniels who had the 
extremely low A dot, like not a,

388
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,600
you know, really the, the only 
reason that they weren't punting

389
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,640
in the second game was because 
when magic needed to happen, 

390
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,680
Jayden Daniels, just like, I 
guess I'll go run for a first 

391
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:51,200
down, you know, So I, I, I'm 
hopeful that after seeing 

392
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:55,480
Daniels uncork it and you know, 
the report after the game was 

393
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,080
that play to Terry Mclaurin. 
That was like the catch of the 

394
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,160
season so far. 
I think it had something like, 

395
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:06,400
you know, Amazon had it as a 10%
catch probability for that 

396
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,200
touchdown deep ball that, that 
Daniels hit him with. 

397
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:15,160
But allegedly Terry Mclaurin 
asked Cliff Kingsbury if they 

398
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:19,120
could, could have that play. 
And Cliff, you know, so 

399
00:25:19,120 --> 00:25:22,920
benevolently obliged and let his
best players do the things that 

400
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:23,920
they're best at. 
So. 

401
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,880
That is, yeah, that is kind of 
interesting. 

402
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:31,040
So I, I, I think you hit the 
nail on the head there that we 

403
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:35,680
need, we need the commanders to 
push the Cardinals and, and and 

404
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,840
that's the kind of base case 
like most likely outcome. 

405
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,240
I I have a question for you and 
I this might be too galbering, 

406
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:47,960
but when we think through these 
games and you know, we can, we 

407
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,920
can kind of see like the path to
failure for them. 

408
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,840
Do you think it's too gal brain 
to kind of like skew the way 

409
00:25:54,840 --> 00:26:00,000
that you're playing the game to 
players that might be favored 

410
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,120
even a little bit more if the 
specific path that you're 

411
00:26:03,120 --> 00:26:07,440
thinking is most beneficial for 
that that true ceiling outcome 

412
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,440
for the game? 
Like, like for example, we're 

413
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:15,320
saying, OK, we need, we need a 
big lead, you know, from the 

414
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:17,720
commanders. 
To make. 

415
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,000
Yeah, we need, we need them to 
be scoring. 

416
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,800
So really you're. 
Probably better off playing a 

417
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:30,040
true Daniels than OK right? 
Yeah, yeah, I think, I think 

418
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:31,760
that's reasonable. 
The other thing I was going to 

419
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,680
say is like, you probably really
don't want to just play like a 

420
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,640
a, a Cardinals thing without a 
bring back, right? 

421
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,240
No. 
Or or even Cardinals and then 

422
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:46,080
Zach Yerz like or something like
or one of the kind of tertiary. 

423
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,000
Right. 
That that that's probably like, 

424
00:26:50,360 --> 00:26:53,360
maybe that's going to be like a 
very conventional common 

425
00:26:53,360 --> 00:26:59,120
thinking, but that, that, that 
seems like a very reasonable way

426
00:26:59,120 --> 00:27:01,240
to think about it. 
Like I actually, I I think that 

427
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,280
won't end up being Galbarian at 
all. 

428
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,680
And I think that might actually 
end up being like what people 

429
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:10,840
think is like, OK, deep ball to 
McLaren is what unlocks this 

430
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:12,720
game. 
So that's the stack that you 

431
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:19,000
need and, and, and, and that 
being I, I could, I, I don't 

432
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,880
know, I, I don't know for sure, 
but I could see that being like 

433
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:23,520
the, the popular way to think 
about it. 

434
00:27:24,120 --> 00:27:28,040
OK. 
The next quarterback, we're kind

435
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:32,040
of branching out here talking 
about guys that are on the 

436
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:35,880
fringe of this quadrant that we 
want our quarterbacks to be in. 

437
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:41,680
Dak Prescott. 
I mean, really the game was it, 

438
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:43,840
it was almost over before it 
started. 

439
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,160
The Cowboys defense just can't 
stop anyone. 

440
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,440
I mean, it, it played out 
exactly like we said it was 

441
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,760
going to play out. 
Derrick Henry came in and ran 

442
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,840
all over this putrid Cowboys 
rush defense and then they got 

443
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,560
demoralized and just didn't stop
anything all day. 

444
00:27:58,560 --> 00:27:59,440
It was. 
It was. 

445
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:01,680
Not yeah, they're a dumpster 
fire. 

446
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:06,040
Like they're same thing after 
being a dumpster fire against 

447
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,600
the Saints, They're a dumpster 
fire against the Ravens. 

448
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:14,400
The vibes seem really bad there 
for that Cowboys team and how 

449
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:18,000
that pertains to that Prescott 
is. 

450
00:28:18,360 --> 00:28:22,480
So it looks like even even with 
the high pass rate that that 

451
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:26,040
they have on the season, which 
looks like 70%, they're still 

452
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:30,520
like new completely neutral pass
rate over expectation. 

453
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:38,920
And then they seem pretty 
average to below average on, on 

454
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:43,080
the overall efficiency stuff. 
So to me that kind of strikes me

455
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:47,200
as like they've got a good 
quarterback on a bad team. 

456
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,400
And so the volume, the the 
volume will will probably be OK 

457
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,720
because they're going to be 
losing, but the efficiency is 

458
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,360
going to struggle. 
There is is is my read. 

459
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,560
Yeah, I, I don't know if you saw
this stat, but did you see that 

460
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:05,080
the Cowboys EPA per play for 
rushing plays is actually higher

461
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,360
than their EPA per play for 
passing plays? 

462
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,800
And I don't know if you've 
subjected yourself to watching 

463
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:14,160
every Cowboy snap, but I gotta 
tell you, the rushing plays 

464
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,080
don't look great. 
Right. 

465
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,440
Something must be going 
horribly, horribly wrong. 

466
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:23,480
Yeah, I, I mean, I think a big 
part of it is there. 

467
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,320
There's just so much passing 
volume. 

468
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,440
They've been in desperation mode
for multiple games now and so 

469
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:30,360
you're just getting this huge 
amount. 

470
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:34,880
You know Dak Prescott has 134 
drop backs on the season like 

471
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:38,520
compared to Kirk cousins, Kirk 
Cousins is at 90. 

472
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:43,360
You know Justin Herbert is 
almost at 50% of the number of 

473
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:46,160
drop backs Dak is at now. 
That's not fair because Herbert 

474
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:50,680
missed a little bit of time. 
But I mean 134 drop backs. 

475
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,640
I believe that leads. 
Oh Nope, I lied because we have 

476
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,160
Deshaun Watson at 141 drop backs
that I. 

477
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,480
I see one here. 
So you're gonna I think that 

478
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:03,320
that that does speak to volume 
on a bad team, but the QB is 

479
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:07,760
good bringing that kind of 
efficiency to neutral over kind 

480
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,560
of like yardage stuff. 
It probably it's probably low 

481
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,040
because of socks and then 
interceptions and stuff like 

482
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,480
that. 
But fantasy stuff like I think 

483
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:23,640
it's been solid and then I know 
this isn't the tight end section

484
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:27,240
and and but that does that does 
feel kind of strong for those 

485
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,800
kind of like secondary non CD 
Lam options who may not be like 

486
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:39,720
great talents, but they're on a 
a team that is raft of talent. 

487
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:45,560
And so some someone like Jake 
Ferguson can be a very big 

488
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:49,680
beneficiary of that environment.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. 

489
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:56,080
Moving on to we'll get out of 
the the good part of the chart 

490
00:30:56,080 --> 00:31:00,280
and look at some guys that you 
know, it just a, you know, a 

491
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,920
week ago we're talking about how
poor both of these guys have 

492
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:08,560
been playing, but signs of life 
for both Bo Nix and Caleb 

493
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:10,840
Williams. 
What do you think about these 

494
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,840
guys going forward? 
How much of this was just like a

495
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,840
blip on the radar versus 
development? 

496
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:20,320
What are your thoughts here? 
So starting with Caleb Williams,

497
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:24,760
I, I think if if you look at the
some of the chose that he made, 

498
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:30,920
they look really good and you 
can easily find some strong, 

499
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:33,400
strong highlights of Caleb from 
that game. 

500
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:37,680
And it's good to see that kind 
of development where they 

501
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:42,320
started, kind of started off KG.
He was struggled mightily week 

502
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:47,280
1, even struggled Week 2 and 
then had some at least put some 

503
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,680
good trolls on tape for weak 
tree. 

504
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,960
I guess you have to give that 
caveat that they were playing 

505
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:58,720
the Colts who don't have the 
best defense, so you have to 

506
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:03,000
factor that in some. 
But it's definitely very 

507
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:08,080
encouraging to see that groat 
and development from Caleb. 

508
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:14,920
I guess the the problem overall,
especially for fantasy, is that 

509
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:20,320
the online is absolutely putrid.
It is like God awful. 

510
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:26,440
And then you have Odunze playing
well and then it it looks like 

511
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,520
Keenan Allen has plantar 
fasciitis. 

512
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,800
So it might be a while before 
he's back. 

513
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,120
And he does seem like an 
important piece for that team. 

514
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,280
And then did I miss some? 
I think I missed something. 

515
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,400
Is DJ Moore hurt or like did he 
get an injury? 

516
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:44,160
Not. 
Not that I saw, no. 

517
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:49,320
OK, maybe maybe maybe I I'm I'm 
mixing something up then. 

518
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:52,960
And he at least seems like 
disaffected. 

519
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,200
Yeah, I mean, so much of his 
production, that game just came 

520
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:02,360
on, you know, the Hail Mary that
ended up being what, a yard 

521
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,240
short of a touchdown at half 
time. 

522
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,120
I mean, I'll, I'll echo what you
had to say about Caleb where 

523
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,960
he's he's look, he's showing 
signs where he looks good. 

524
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,680
The problem is just terrible 
offensive line and terrible 

525
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,520
coaching. 
You know, fantasy, fantasy 

526
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,960
football aside, the most 
frustrating thing that I, I keep

527
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:27,760
hearing is, oh man, I mean Caleb
Williams, so much talent, but is

528
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:29,760
he coachable? 
You know, maybe he's not 

529
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,840
listening and that's why he's 
not developing. 

530
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:36,360
And that is like the most 
bullshit like protect Shane 

531
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,960
Waldron, water carrying stuff 
I've ever heard. 

532
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:41,960
Like any anyone that you hear 
that's saying something like 

533
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,720
that is like an immediate 
unreliable narrator. 

534
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:49,160
It it's pure like, I, I mean, I 
don't even really understand 

535
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,040
why. 
Like what is the benefit to just

536
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,000
like out and out lying about 
this guy? 

537
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,440
Like, oh, I mean, did you see on
Hard Knocks? 

538
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,120
He crossed his arms to one time 
when he was sitting in the in 

539
00:33:58,120 --> 00:33:59,600
the meeting room with Shane 
Waldron. 

540
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,840
It was like or with Eberfluits, 
It's like, dude, right? 

541
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:07,840
What like that is not the reason
that Caleb he's not struggling 

542
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,600
because he crossed his arms and 
had poor body language one time.

543
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,280
He's struggling because he's 
dealing with a couple 

544
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,239
incompetent morons that are like
just running him into the 

545
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:20,320
ground. 
So I mean he might he might be 

546
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,080
good enough to just overcome 
that and give us some really fun

547
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:24,480
fantasy stuff. 
That's what I. 

548
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,480
Right, right. 
And we got, we got, we got a 

549
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,600
solid week this week, right? 
Yeah. 

550
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,159
On on like a million Dropbox. 
No, yeah, he was. 

551
00:34:33,159 --> 00:34:34,239
He was good. 
He was. 

552
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,800
He was like a tournament winning
quarterback before Dak Prescott 

553
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,600
came in and did all the garbage 
time stuff. 

554
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,520
But yeah, he was, he was very 
solid on DraftKings. 

555
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:44,560
He was one of the best point per
dollar plays. 

556
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,600
OK. 
And, and then if we want to 

557
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:52,440
switch it like I, I, I think we 
covered Caleb, if we want to 

558
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:57,960
switch it over to Bone Nix. 
And he's another one where you, 

559
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:02,560
you see the development, you see
the improvement and, and he 

560
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:05,520
looks better. 
He, he objectively looked a lot 

561
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:10,240
better and or say I, I should 
say, subjectively looked better,

562
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:16,560
a lot better against the bucks. 
But that's another one where I 

563
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:20,840
guess his outline is a little 
better and his time to throw is 

564
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:27,840
a little is a little higher. 
And but the issue for him then 

565
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:31,400
is they don't actually, they 
don't have a lot of receiving 

566
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,000
weapons around them. 
Well, they might, but they just 

567
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,240
never see the field. 
They never see the field. 

568
00:35:36,240 --> 00:35:45,440
So that that that's one where 
it's also like it's weak tree of

569
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,920
the rookie season. 
And I think somebody, I think 

570
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:53,640
somebody mentioned that it took 
CJ Stroud like till week 12 or, 

571
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,120
or something, something like 
that, something later in the 

572
00:35:56,120 --> 00:36:04,760
season to put up a Q B12 week so
that they they they can continue

573
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,520
to develop. 
And, and I hope they do and then

574
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:11,320
and then eventually put up a bit
more bigger big games. 

575
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:15,960
But it it does look like they're
going, they're both going 

576
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,800
through at least some rookie 
struggles, especially Bo Nicks, 

577
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:24,160
that are sort of compounded by 
coaching and and and and either 

578
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,000
bad receiving weapons or, or or 
per O line. 

579
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,320
Yeah, I think that is pretty 
well said. 

580
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:35,520
So definitely, you know, we're 
we're leaving a light on for 

581
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:39,040
both these guys could, could 
certainly develop into something

582
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,400
more fun. 
Nick's showing more rushing 

583
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,200
upside was really interesting. 
That was a big part of the 

584
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,080
reason I was happy to draft him 
cuz I I really thought you'd get

585
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,520
something with his legs there 
and then. 

586
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,720
Anything else is gravy. 
The the most encouraging thing 

587
00:36:53,720 --> 00:36:57,120
to me was in the the previous 
games, the stuff that looked 

588
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:02,440
really bad to me was just like 
the very off target and like who

589
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,880
was that two type throws farther
down the field that were 

590
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:08,400
happening? 
Or it's like, I don't, I don't 

591
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,000
even know that he had his eyes 
open, you know, like he's 

592
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:14,960
missing a receiver so badly or 
like throwing into like 3 is 

593
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:18,440
like the three closest people to
the ball were all defenders, you

594
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,240
know, on multiple throws in the 
first couple weeks. 

595
00:37:21,720 --> 00:37:24,560
I didn't really see hardly any 
of that this week. 

596
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:28,160
And now I I didn't get to watch 
every snap from this game, but 

597
00:37:28,240 --> 00:37:32,000
the passes I did see look pretty
sharp, like looked on target. 

598
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,760
I mean, he's keeping the offense
on schedule for the most part. 

599
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:38,480
It was it was much better. 
It was a big improvement for 

600
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:44,720
Nick. 
So another guy that I think is 

601
00:37:44,720 --> 00:37:46,640
in an interesting spot this 
week. 

602
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,520
We kind of highlighted some, 
some fun games earlier where 

603
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:54,920
both sides look good, but this 
guy gets to play Bonex and so 

604
00:37:55,240 --> 00:37:58,880
you might wind up with the the 
total of the game. 

605
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:04,400
I, I, I mean, I don't look at 
the line at all, but my, so this

606
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,600
is just totally off the cuff, so
take it with a, a healthy grain 

607
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,720
of salt. 
But I would assume that the 

608
00:38:10,720 --> 00:38:14,840
market and, and Vegas, you know,
people setting lines would 

609
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:20,400
probably set this Broncos and 
Jets line too low just based on 

610
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:25,120
the tendencies of both teams up 
to this point where you get 2 

611
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,520
pretty bad games from Knicks and
like bad games offensively for 

612
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:30,600
the Broncos. 
And then you get one where, you 

613
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,280
know, there's, there's glimmers 
of hope and kind of the same 

614
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,240
thing for The Jets where they're
really slow. 

615
00:38:35,240 --> 00:38:38,920
They're not passing a ton up 
until this last game when Rogers

616
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:42,160
finally starts to kind of open 
it up a little bit more, look a 

617
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,720
little better. 
I'm wondering if we're seeing 

618
00:38:44,720 --> 00:38:48,640
both of these offenses begin to 
ascend a little bit and then you

619
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:51,000
also just for the fun narrative 
aspect of it. 

620
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,840
This is Aaron Rodgers first 
chance now. 

621
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,880
Now, The Jets really, really 
stuck it to the Broncos and Sean

622
00:38:56,880 --> 00:39:00,240
Payton last year to try and get 
some revenge for Nathaniel 

623
00:39:00,240 --> 00:39:04,040
Hackett, as Sean Payton 
infamously had some not very 

624
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:07,520
nice things to say about 
Nathaniel Hackett last year. 

625
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:10,760
So The Jets already got their 
revenge. 

626
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,560
But Aaron Rodgers, who is quite 
possibly the pettiest 

627
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:19,040
quarterback in the league, may 
feel like he really needs to to 

628
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,880
be heard in the, you know, this,
this revenge game where. 

629
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:26,000
He well, I, I, I think it is 
interesting and, and, and your 

630
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,600
note had kind of been where the,
the, the the first two games 

631
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:33,240
kind of being average where they
just him shaking off the rust. 

632
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:37,840
So it is interesting that he 
popped for 9.2 adjusted yards 

633
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:43,200
per attempt against a pretty 
good Patriots defense who had 

634
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,920
like it. 
It will have that guy Christian 

635
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,320
Gonzalez. 
They they they a good defensive,

636
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:52,120
a good secondary. 
So it is interesting that he 

637
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,480
played so well. 
And then they also had 40 drop 

638
00:39:55,480 --> 00:40:00,240
backs, which in a game where 
they were kind of they led true 

639
00:40:00,240 --> 00:40:03,040
at the whole game. 
It it didn't ever feel like the 

640
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,040
game was in doubt. 
And then they still have 40 drop

641
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,800
backs. 
Is that is kind of like 

642
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:10,480
encouraging. 
Now I don't know how much of 

643
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,640
that is just the the Patriots 
ineptitude. 

644
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:18,400
And, and, and just giving up a, 
a, a large play count to the 

645
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:21,200
other team. 
And but that is, that is pretty 

646
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:26,400
interesting. 
And yeah, yeah, that, that, that

647
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:29,320
is an interesting game. 
The the, the only thing I'd say 

648
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,600
is so the Broncos, they also 
have a, a pretty good defense, 

649
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:36,720
right Where they have a good, 
they have Patrick Surtan, they 

650
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,360
that that's a solid defense. 
Yeah, absolutely. 

651
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,720
And the other thing is like, 
even though Nix is looking 

652
00:40:43,720 --> 00:40:46,440
better, you mentioned it 
earlier, what what weapons do 

653
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:49,720
the Broncos really have? 
I mean, if you're looking to to 

654
00:40:49,720 --> 00:40:52,960
play this game with a a bring 
back on the Broncos side, like 

655
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:57,560
the only viable option to me is 
Sutton really right, just 

656
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:00,560
because he's he's getting the 
majority of the target volume. 

657
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:04,000
But like you're not going to 
play a Lil Jordan Humphrey or a 

658
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,880
Josh Reynolds or like I I mean, 
it's encouraging that you're 

659
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,920
getting a little more Troy 
Franklin now, but it seems to be

660
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:15,440
at the expense of Mims where I 
think I think we would all love 

661
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:19,320
to see a three wide receiver set
of Sutton Mims and Franklin. 

662
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:22,960
It seems like that is just not 
in the cards, but. 

663
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:25,120
That is not how they see this 
team. 

664
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,880
No. 
So I, I, yeah, I, I think it's 

665
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:33,160
thin for this game to be 
nuclear, but I, I see the path 

666
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:35,880
is, is what I'm saying, and I 
think it might go overlooked. 

667
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:38,680
Yeah, Yeah, that, that makes 
sense. 

668
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:41,920
That makes sense for sure. 
So looking at Troy Franklin, he 

669
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:46,840
had a, he had a 30% rat rate 
last week. 

670
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:54,000
So did Marvin Mims. 
And then Marvin Mims, he had a 

671
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:59,760
13% Tiger rat rate, sorry, I 
should say 30% right, right last

672
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:04,120
week. 
And then Mims is up from 13% in 

673
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:12,040
Week 2 and 16% in, in week 1. 
So I guess it, it does feel like

674
00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:14,880
those guys are ticking up that 
they are seeing a bigger share 

675
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:19,600
of the fields, but that is like 
that's, that's true kind of 

676
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:22,800
rotational wide receiver level 
usage unfortunately. 

677
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:29,120
Yeah. 
Moving on to there's, there's 

678
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,120
two guys that I think have been.
OK. 

679
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:33,240
Sorry, just one more thing I 
want to point out. 

680
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:42,320
It looks like that Troy Franklin
had a 42% target run on those 

681
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,000
routes. 
So we only had 12 routes and 

682
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:48,560
then he had five targets. 
I guess we're not at the wide 

683
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,880
receiver section, but that's 
that's kind of interesting. 

684
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:54,320
Yeah, I did. 
I did see, I know one of them 

685
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:57,440
was just like a real short like 
little manufactured screen to 

686
00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:00,040
him. 
Oh yeah, yeah, the yardage is 

687
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:03,760
not there, unfortunately. 
I think, I mean, if you can just

688
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,960
get the guy on the field, Beau 
Nix is his college quarterback. 

689
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:10,200
Like the shower narrative is 
strong there and the competition

690
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:14,320
is like there's no competition. 
So all you need is can Troy 

691
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,200
Franklin play just a little I I 
think really. 

692
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:19,640
Right. 
The only barrier is that the 

693
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:21,920
dude, you can't catch passes 
from the bench. 

694
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:26,800
And so once he's on the field, 
I, I trust Beau Nix to to try 

695
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,480
and get it to him. 
I mean, who knows, maybe Peyton 

696
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,960
will put the the targets per out
run is also encouraging that 

697
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:36,080
maybe Peyton is is scheming him 
the ball more when he's on the 

698
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:39,480
field. 
So definitely leaving a light on

699
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:42,360
for the late Broncos. 
Troy Franklin Bonex stacks 

700
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:44,320
there. 
There could be something there, 

701
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:51,120
but it did want to, it did want 
to move on to a couple guys that

702
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:55,080
we were concerned about on this 
chart, and that's CJ Stroud and 

703
00:43:55,080 --> 00:44:00,040
Trevor Lawrence. 
I mean, I think I personally 

704
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:03,080
think Lawrence is a little bit 
more concerning just because you

705
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:05,960
have his coach already talking 
about like we could see a 

706
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:11,040
quarterback change what he just 
gave this guy $55 million a 

707
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:13,360
year. 
It's Week 3 and we're talking 

708
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:17,440
about benching Trevor Lawrence. 
Like that seems really bad to 

709
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,160
me. 
But between Stroud and Lawrence,

710
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:22,520
can you talk about those? 
Yeah. 

711
00:44:22,720 --> 00:44:28,240
So Stroud and I think you kind 
of hinted on and he has, he has 

712
00:44:28,240 --> 00:44:32,920
not played the most efficiently 
and he's at just seven point and

713
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:39,120
one adjusted yards per attempt. 
But I don't I don't see, I see 

714
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:43,000
honestly a decent amount of 
positive things here as well 

715
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:47,840
where they're at 1% and pass 
rate over expected, over 

716
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:51,120
expected. 
So just a little bit of both 

717
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:53,320
neutral. 
So we are actually getting some 

718
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:59,400
kind of volume from him. 
And then the, the, the online 

719
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:02,160
looks solid. 
His, his time, the throat looks 

720
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:05,080
solid. 
So to me, that's something where

721
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:10,200
it's, it's, it's really hard to 
put your finger on why, why the,

722
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,200
the efficiency's been so 
average. 

723
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:17,160
But I do think with these kind 
of pocket pastor types that you 

724
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,720
do get, you do get kind of like 
swings in their efficiency. 

725
00:45:21,240 --> 00:45:26,120
And so like not panicking on on 
CJ Stroud and then by extension,

726
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:31,760
still pretty, pretty hopeful 
about pass catchers outside of 

727
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,560
Nico, and then still still 
pretty hopeful about Tank Dale. 

728
00:45:36,720 --> 00:45:39,960
OK. 
And then for the the Trevor 

729
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:43,520
Lawrence stuff, are you are you 
hopeful there or is this, I 

730
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:47,320
mean, to me it's reading like 
lost season for the Jaguars like

731
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,680
it seems. 
Yeah, it's a it's a, it's a true

732
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:54,960
lost season. 
I think like it's you still have

733
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:58,960
a lot of the same issues that we
kind of noted at last week where

734
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:02,640
like the O line isn't great, 
that the receivers are dropping 

735
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:07,880
passes. 
The coach seems off as prime and

736
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:12,640
and and then that manifests 
itself in in bad passing 

737
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:18,520
efficiency stats overall. 
So like, I think Trevor Lawrence

738
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:21,800
himself as a quarterback is 
probably at least close, pretty 

739
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:23,920
close to league average starter 
level. 

740
00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:32,160
So I, I, I think he's probably 
fine career wise, but this is a 

741
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:34,880
bad Jags team. 
This is a bad Jaguars team. 

742
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:37,320
And and then we're talking about
something someone who's 

743
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:41,240
predominantly, not just solely, 
but predominantly a pocket 

744
00:46:41,240 --> 00:46:49,200
passer that's going to manifest 
itself in some bad passing 

745
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,320
efficiency, overall team 
efficiency. 

746
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:59,120
So I know we, I've some, I have 
some manage teams with, I have 

747
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:02,920
one manage team with some of the
legendsary upside guys where we,

748
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:05,320
where we took Trevor Lawrence as
their starter. 

749
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:10,360
We took him late, but we are, 
we're very much panicked about 

750
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:12,720
who our starter is going to be 
the the rest of the way. 

751
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,760
Like we, we're not, we're not 
feeling, we're feeling very 

752
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:18,960
uncomfortable with the prospect 
of starting them. 

753
00:47:20,240 --> 00:47:22,000
Yeah. 
I, I mean, that seems 

754
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,400
reasonable. 
All right. 

755
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,160
I think that's all the guys we 
needed to touch on on the 

756
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,200
quarterback chart, unless you 
had anyone you wanted to mention

757
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:34,520
before we move on to ARP. 
No, no, let's we are 49 minutes 

758
00:47:34,520 --> 00:47:35,720
in. 
We. 

759
00:47:35,720 --> 00:47:41,480
Are right down and we did get 
some talk in but other 

760
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:46,320
positions, but so this is our 
our our running back snaps and 

761
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:49,760
usage. 
So kind of focused on on on 

762
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,000
who's on the field for the 
important plays. 

763
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:56,200
So on the green bar, that's the 
percentage of team plays that is

764
00:47:56,400 --> 00:48:00,120
rush attempts to that player. 
Yellow is percentage of those 

765
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:02,840
team plays where they are 
running a route. 

766
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:06,160
And then we have the kind of 
blocking stats. 

767
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:09,160
We don't really care about run 
blocking, but we want to finish 

768
00:48:09,240 --> 00:48:13,600
out and then pass blocking. 
It's not fantasy relevant, but 

769
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:17,080
it's good to see who's trusted 
as a pass blocker. 

770
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:21,440
Like you can see here, if we 
didn't have these, you would you

771
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:23,480
would think, oh, Devin 
signatory, he's not actually 

772
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:27,320
playing that much. 
But then you see actually, no, a

773
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:31,240
lot of he's actually pass 
blocking pass pro in a lot of 

774
00:48:31,240 --> 00:48:35,080
his team's drop backs. 
And it's great actually that 

775
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,480
they trust him with that, that 
that kind of entrenches him in 

776
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:41,760
that role. 
But it it it that that's why 

777
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:47,440
he's only at 50% fantasy kind of
useful snaps despite being a 

778
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:50,960
clear starter. 
Yeah, I mean the the singletary 

779
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:55,880
role has been fantastic. 
You know, in in spite of only 

780
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:58,600
having about 50% useful snaps, 
it's been really good. 

781
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,800
But the guy who has the best 
role in all of fantasy, just 

782
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:03,840
like he did last year is Kyron 
Williams. 

783
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:08,760
And so I from from this point 
going forward, anything that 

784
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:12,280
Sean McVay says to me about like
I really need to lighten the 

785
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:16,160
load for this guy or I need to 
can't, can't keep hiring out 

786
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:20,440
there for 80% of Snatch, 90% of 
Snap is just an outright lie 

787
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,200
because. 
There's he's lying to himself as

788
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:24,440
well. 
Yeah, there's a difference 

789
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:26,560
between what someone tells you 
and what they show you. 

790
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:30,880
And the Rams have shown us like 
they just love Kyron Williams. 

791
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,720
Like he. 
He makes their offense go 

792
00:49:33,720 --> 00:49:37,200
apparently and and actually no, 
that not just apparently he was 

793
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:42,480
important for their offense. 
Yeah, so Kyron, incredible role.

794
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,240
I mean, he's been he was one of 
the guys I was really 

795
00:49:45,240 --> 00:49:50,560
aggressively targeting in dog 
bowls last week and that that 

796
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:53,400
worked out pretty well, except I
couldn't get him on any of the 

797
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:57,160
the right teams didn't have him 
with the right combinations. 

798
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:59,800
But I think he's underpriced 
again this week, man. 

799
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:03,440
Like the role is just so good. 
And and I think people are 

800
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:06,160
scared off because the offense 
might be gross, but it's like 

801
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:09,840
the offense can be gross. 
It's just one got the got this 

802
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:11,400
guy is the offense. 
So. 

803
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:13,480
It doesn't really. 
Matter how gross it is when you 

804
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:14,960
get an. 
Entire you, you have a running 

805
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:19,960
back with 90% snapshare and then
he's actually good on top of it 

806
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:24,960
that that's a pretty potent 
combination and like turn around

807
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:27,280
late second round was not the 
correct price. 

808
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:31,000
Like I like Devin Singletary 
because of how good his role is,

809
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:34,560
right. 
And and I I think that, you 

810
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:38,880
know, his team is just as bad 
offensively as the giants are. 

811
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:41,800
Like the Giants are only 
functional because of Malik 

812
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,960
neighbors And and you know, even
then it's arguable if they're 

813
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:48,760
functional or if it's just like 
Malik neighbors is to the Giants

814
00:50:48,760 --> 00:50:50,520
what Kyron Williams is to the 
Rams. 

815
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,840
Like he's what's making the 
offense go and Singletary's just

816
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:55,280
getting this incredible role 
there. 

817
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:58,520
Kyron's role is even better and 
he is the focal point of the 

818
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:01,600
offense where Singletary's just 
a compliment to Malik neighbors.

819
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:06,160
So Kyron, I mean, unless he's 
starting to go like top five, 

820
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:10,480
you know, every week in in BR 
drafts, he's underpriced. 

821
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:12,320
Like it's just. 
Right, right, right. 

822
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:18,320
Agreed. 
OK, we're going to need to have 

823
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:22,840
a brief moment of capitulation 
and a funeral for all the best 

824
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:27,240
of all teams that we drafted 
without Saquon Barkley because I

825
00:51:27,240 --> 00:51:31,160
don't and like while we I'm I'm 
wanting to capitulate because 

826
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:33,960
people who are drafting Saquon 
Barkley are getting the outcome 

827
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:36,840
that was really good for them 
and like it. 

828
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:40,760
It's clear that the I mean, I 
don't think that you or I we. 

829
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:43,880
Need an injury to to survive and
say Quin Berkeley. 

830
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:49,200
Unfortunately, like all all of 
the metrics are good and he's 

831
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:54,800
like he's he's on the field for 
what at 68% of of that are 

832
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:57,360
useful snaps. 
Oh, sorry, 80%. 

833
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:01,120
I'm trying to move on already 
80% snap rate. 

834
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:09,960
The the what you call it his, 
his watch, his online is like 

835
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:15,840
playing incredible that they're 
like they're the 5th best run 

836
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:20,440
run blockings rate. 
And then I was kind of like the 

837
00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:24,520
one thing that kind of I, I was 
kind of holding on to was that a

838
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:27,160
lot of the time when he got into
these one on ones, the other 

839
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:29,960
player was, was winning. 
And, and I'm like, kind of like,

840
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:37,040
you know, he's not like he's not
a peak, kind of like top peak of

841
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:40,800
his powers, top prime athlete. 
And that will matter eventually 

842
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:45,920
at running back. 
What what kind of forced me to 

843
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:50,760
capitulate is if you look at 
he's actually got the, the the 

844
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:54,360
second fastest and ball carrier 
speed on on the season now 

845
00:52:55,440 --> 00:53:01,000
behind just Nico Collins. 
And that granted that's on a 65 

846
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:04,640
yard rushing touchdown. 
So he should get up there and 

847
00:53:04,640 --> 00:53:10,720
speed, but the combination of 
online playing credible and then

848
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:17,120
still pretty solid top end 
speed, unless you get some kind 

849
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:21,440
of wear and tear or injury, it's
going to be tough. 

850
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:23,840
But Adam, unfortunately. 
Yeah. 

851
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:27,120
And I, I don't think that either
of us were saying like this was 

852
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:30,880
an impossible outcome for him. 
We just thought it was probably 

853
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:35,560
more thin than it is. 
I mean, and who knows exactly 

854
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:38,760
how thin it was, but I, I 
certainly think that we probably

855
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:40,960
underestimated the likelihood of
this outcome. 

856
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:47,240
We, I, I, I think it was closer 
to assuming he was going to have

857
00:53:47,240 --> 00:53:49,880
to run hot on touchdowns to pay 
off his stack. 

858
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:52,480
And now? 
He's had some, he's had some 

859
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:55,640
pretty weak years on 
peripherals, on efficiency, 

860
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:57,600
right? 
And then people say, well, 

861
00:53:57,600 --> 00:54:00,560
shouldn't you have predicted 
that him going from the Giants 

862
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:03,440
to to the Eagles would have this
boost in efficiency? 

863
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:07,320
But then you see Singletary 
actually playing relatively 

864
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:10,320
efficiently for the Giants too. 
So it's not like they're like 

865
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:17,440
this abysmal, like can't work 
offense and where the the 

866
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:21,680
running back can't do anything. 
So like there's still some level

867
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:27,000
of meaning to those peripheral 
stats, but you kind of do have 

868
00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:30,040
to focus on him looking pretty 
incredible through the 1st 2 

869
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:32,960
weeks now. 
Yeah, and I, I have not, I 

870
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:36,120
haven't checked these stats yet,
but I wouldn't be surprised if 

871
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:39,640
Singletary's peripherals with 
the Giants right now are better 

872
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:42,200
than Saquon's peripherals when 
he was with the Giants. 

873
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:46,200
You know, he, he looked, Saquon 
looked 'cause I, I always made 

874
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:50,720
this comparison of Singletary 
over the last few years, had 

875
00:54:50,720 --> 00:54:53,440
better peripherals than Saquon 
over the last few years while he

876
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:57,720
was on. 
And so I, I think it was 

877
00:54:57,720 --> 00:55:00,880
reasonable to believe that 
Saquon might just be done. 

878
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:05,160
But maybe we, we were a little 
too confident that he was done 

879
00:55:06,240 --> 00:55:09,000
because he definitely looks like
he might be a season defining 

880
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:13,320
player right now. 
That's all the Saquon crow that 

881
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:15,320
we'll be eating. 
Congratulations. 

882
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:18,560
If you have him on a lot of 
teams, I hope it goes well for 

883
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:23,960
you. 
The other guys here that I think

884
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:27,200
were were worth mentioning, not 
a lot of like huge changes to 

885
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:28,960
roles, just the notes that I 
had. 

886
00:55:29,240 --> 00:55:33,400
The answer The answer is yes. 
Singletary is playing better 

887
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:36,280
this year for the Giants, and 
Barkley was before. 

888
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:40,240
So here's the real question if 
we got Devin Singletary on the 

889
00:55:40,240 --> 00:55:42,680
Eagles. 
Oh my God, it'd be unstoppable. 

890
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:45,520
The legendary season of all 
legendary seasons. 

891
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:51,040
Probably many a second. 
I on ironically, I think yes, I 

892
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:54,200
think Saquon would be like a 
perfect fit for the for the 

893
00:55:54,200 --> 00:55:56,800
Eagles and it would be 
unstoppable. 

894
00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:00,200
Yeah, I mean, Singletary 
probably doesn't get to deliver 

895
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:03,760
the explosive plays like Saquon 
does, but man, if you gave 

896
00:56:03,760 --> 00:56:06,240
Singletary the volume that 
Saquon's getting in that Eagles 

897
00:56:06,240 --> 00:56:10,040
offense, like I think he'd, he'd
have an extremely high success 

898
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:14,040
rate. 
He kind of he's like not, I know

899
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:18,680
he he doesn't have like true top
end top end speed, but he he has

900
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:22,280
a lot of breakaway runs. 
So like he he wouldn't, he 

901
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:25,360
probably wouldn't get quite as 
many yardage, but he'd have a 

902
00:56:25,360 --> 00:56:27,600
lot more of them is what I would
think. 

903
00:56:28,240 --> 00:56:32,560
Yeah, anyway, that's just still 
a little bit of Saquon cope for 

904
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:35,560
us. 
The the thesis was correct, we 

905
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:37,880
just got a bad run out is what 
we're telling ourselves. 

906
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:39,880
We just run bad. 
We ran bad. 

907
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:42,760
OK, I want a rapid fire through 
some of these notes because a 

908
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:46,120
lot of these roles didn't change
massively, but it's just stuff 

909
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:47,800
that I felt like was worth 
mentioning. 

910
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:51,880
Charbonnet is an elite touch 
consolidator as long as Walker 

911
00:56:51,880 --> 00:56:56,200
is out. 
If if we get any news at any 

912
00:56:56,200 --> 00:56:59,880
point this season where the 
Walker injury is like, oh, this 

913
00:56:59,880 --> 00:57:03,600
might be something he deals with
the whole year or he's he's 

914
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:05,480
coming back. 
But we're we're really going to 

915
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:09,360
have to be careful with it. 
Like if there's risk of, you 

916
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:12,240
know, the injury becoming 
prolonged or him missing even 

917
00:57:12,240 --> 00:57:16,920
more time, like Charbonnay is an
elite, elite touch consolidator.

918
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,320
Like the guy is just getting all
of the work so. 

919
00:57:19,960 --> 00:57:22,040
That's it. 
Does it does make me wonder. 

920
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:28,040
So if and when Walker comes 
back, like Sharps might actually

921
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:30,080
have a pretty solid standalone 
role. 

922
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:33,400
I, I think he could, he could 
flip him to be the touch leader 

923
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:36,800
on the team and have Walker do 
what Walker is best at, which is

924
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:40,720
those like home run. 
Really what what the what the 

925
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:44,440
Seahawks are doing or what we 
hope they will be doing is I 

926
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:47,640
want them to recreate Saquon 
Barkley in the aggregate with 

927
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:50,560
Kenneth Walker and Zach 
Charbenet, where Zach Charbenet 

928
00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:54,200
does the bell cow stuff and 
Kenneth Walker Subs in for the 

929
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:57,640
big breakaway plays. 
So what you're saying is that 

930
00:57:57,640 --> 00:58:01,120
Sharps will be the plotter, 
where on all the plays where 

931
00:58:01,120 --> 00:58:05,120
Saquon Barkley looks bad, that's
Charbonnay, but then the one 

932
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:08,200
play where Saquon gets a 
breakaway run, that's kind of 

933
00:58:08,200 --> 00:58:09,920
Walker? 
Exactly that. 

934
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:14,920
Yeah, that's sorry. 
I for a second I thought I'd mix

935
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:19,080
it up, but I didn't. 
Sorry. 

936
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:21,440
I interrupted, rapid fire. 
You're fine. 

937
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:23,760
I wasn't even. 
I wasn't going rapidly enough, 

938
00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:26,520
clearly. 
OK, Henry finally made it on the

939
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:28,880
starters chart. 
It's because they were just 

940
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:32,280
absolutely pushing the Cowboys 
turns and so he got to run more.

941
00:58:32,600 --> 00:58:35,520
His role is the same. 
No, no change in the role. 

942
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:39,280
It's just hey, if you're in a 
positive game script, Henry 

943
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:41,360
eats. 
It's the classic Derek Henry 

944
00:58:41,360 --> 00:58:44,640
role, right? 
So nothing, nothing new there. 

945
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:48,480
Zach Moss still really strong 
role, had a strong performance. 

946
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:52,200
Chase Brown though finally 
starting to look a little bit 

947
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:54,600
better, got a little bit more 
work last night. 

948
00:58:55,040 --> 00:58:59,840
Wondering if this could be a 
sell high window on Moss if the 

949
00:58:59,840 --> 00:59:03,160
Chase Brown genie can't go back 
in the bottle and he makes it 

950
00:59:03,160 --> 00:59:06,360
more of a true split. 
So here's here's what's 

951
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:11,320
interesting about the about the 
the the Zac Moss Chase brown 

952
00:59:11,320 --> 00:59:16,280
stuff. 
It it looks like Zac Moss is 

953
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:18,440
still getting the majority of 
the snaps. 

954
00:59:19,200 --> 00:59:25,600
Like even even just last night 
he was still at 67% useful snaps

955
00:59:25,600 --> 00:59:28,720
between routes and then rush 
attempts. 

956
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:38,120
But for Chase Brown, when he is 
on the field, he's usually, it's

957
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:44,520
usually to give him the ball and
had 8.1 expected, expected 

958
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:52,520
points despite only having a 20%
useful snapshare, which I, I 

959
00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:54,880
think that, that, that, that to 
me that's super interesting. 

960
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:57,560
Yeah. 
I mean it just kind of reads 

961
00:59:57,560 --> 01:00:01,800
like maybe they trust Moss to do
more of like the pass blocking 

962
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:05,120
stuff. 
You know, just like kind of be 

963
01:00:05,120 --> 01:00:09,240
be out there guy, you know, and 
chase Brown is more intentional 

964
01:00:09,240 --> 01:00:12,120
where if Brown is on the field, 
we want to use this guy. 

965
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:15,160
He's he's more of a weapon. 
Moss is like the innings eater 

966
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:18,400
type guy and and Brown is more 
of like the all right, let's 

967
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:21,360
let's get this guy the ball. 
So interesting. 

968
01:00:21,360 --> 01:00:25,560
For sure. 
Chuba, Chuba Hubbard's role 

969
01:00:26,600 --> 01:00:30,120
looking pretty good as like a 
really strong kind of stopgap 

970
01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:34,240
player in in manage leagues 
until you get Brooks in there. 

971
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:37,920
Just with the overall ascension 
of the offense now that the 

972
01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:39,840
stench of Bryce Young is off of 
it. 

973
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:46,440
And then we can let's see, I 
think both of these go, Oh no, 

974
01:00:46,440 --> 01:00:51,840
we've got Jerome Ford on here. 
Jerome Ford still losing work to

975
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:54,160
four men. 
They both those guys seem 

976
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:56,600
entirely dead to me. 
They're cannibalizing each 

977
01:00:56,600 --> 01:00:58,800
other. 
The offense is bad. 

978
01:00:59,160 --> 01:01:01,720
They're passing a bunch. 
That's like the lone bright spot

979
01:01:01,720 --> 01:01:04,320
in the Browns offense. 
But they have a quarterback that

980
01:01:04,320 --> 01:01:07,600
can't pass it. 
So, you know, that's the the 

981
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:09,880
flying ointment there. 
And then neither of these 

982
01:01:09,880 --> 01:01:13,560
running backs are good. 
And so when they both eat into 

983
01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:16,840
each other's volume, it's just 
really, really painful. 

984
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:19,800
Neither, neither guy at all 
useful here. 

985
01:01:19,840 --> 01:01:22,640
And then we can go to the 
backups here because the last 

986
01:01:23,000 --> 01:01:26,480
note that I had was Zeke 
Elliott. 

987
01:01:26,600 --> 01:01:29,840
It it might, it might be over 
before it even began for Zeke 

988
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:35,240
Elliott Dallas Cowboys reunion 
tour here because he is. 

989
01:01:35,440 --> 01:01:38,240
He's losing work to Dowdell. 
Dowdell getting more and more 

990
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:42,800
work each week. 
I, I think Thursday against the 

991
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:45,080
Giants is really going to be 
telling for Zeke. 

992
01:01:46,600 --> 01:01:51,160
What you need for Zeke to have 
any kind of sign of life in, you

993
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:55,720
know, for any kind of format is 
he needs to have a spike in his 

994
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:58,600
usage here. 
Because if it continues to trend

995
01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:02,520
down and, and Dowdle is trending
up, then I, I think it's really,

996
01:02:02,520 --> 01:02:06,600
really bad for Zeke. 
Zeke only had a 20% snapshare. 

997
01:02:08,280 --> 01:02:12,320
Yeah, the Cowboys are doing what
they told us in the offseason, 

998
01:02:12,320 --> 01:02:15,120
what all the beat reporters that
I, I think are the most plugged 

999
01:02:15,120 --> 01:02:16,800
in Cowboys beat reporters are 
telling us. 

1000
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:21,800
Which to me, I when I first 
heard it, I kind of interpreted 

1001
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:25,240
it as well. 
Well, let me like tell you what 

1002
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:26,880
they were saying 1st and then 
I'll explain it. 

1003
01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:30,520
So they were saying that they 
expected the Cowboys to use a 

1004
01:02:30,520 --> 01:02:32,120
full on committee at running 
back. 

1005
01:02:32,120 --> 01:02:35,200
And when they said full on 
committee, they met every guy 

1006
01:02:35,200 --> 01:02:37,720
with a running back designation 
on their team and even a couple 

1007
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:40,960
without. 
They were thinking Dowdle, Zeke,

1008
01:02:41,280 --> 01:02:45,120
Deuce, Vaughn, even Cavante 
Turpin lining up in the back, 

1009
01:02:45,120 --> 01:02:50,640
Hunter Luke, Hunter Luke, their 
fullback getting and and I 

1010
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:54,480
thought, you know, kind of 
parsing that out was OK. 

1011
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:57,520
Like these guys will mix in for 
a carry here and there. 

1012
01:02:57,720 --> 01:02:59,840
But it's mostly gonna be the 
Dowdel and Zeke show. 

1013
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:01,280
But it's definitely gonna be a 
committee. 

1014
01:03:01,920 --> 01:03:06,960
The beat reporters were spot on.
It's literally all it's like 5 

1015
01:03:06,960 --> 01:03:09,240
dudes getting back to work 
there. 

1016
01:03:09,640 --> 01:03:12,600
It's pretty gross. 
I think what you're hoping for, 

1017
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:17,600
for fantasy relevance, is that 
Dowdle can I, I think the only 

1018
01:03:17,600 --> 01:03:20,760
one live to consolidate a useful
running back role for the 

1019
01:03:20,760 --> 01:03:23,920
Cowboys is Dowdle. 
But it's looking much thinner, 

1020
01:03:25,240 --> 01:03:26,160
you know. 
Thankfully, he was. 

1021
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:28,920
Really. 
Rico Dowdle was the was the the 

1022
01:03:28,920 --> 01:03:33,000
top running back last game, but 
he was still only on the field 

1023
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:35,160
45% of the time. 
Right. 

1024
01:03:36,000 --> 01:03:40,360
That so that's that that 
translated to 11.6% expected 

1025
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:43,040
points. 
So like that's a that's a zero 

1026
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:50,240
RB startable week. 
This I guess not not quite with 

1027
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:53,840
the per efficiency, but there 
there's some there's something 

1028
01:03:53,840 --> 01:03:57,080
there for Rico, but this is 
definitely like it. 

1029
01:03:57,640 --> 01:04:00,640
When I stopped drafting Zeke 
this this is kind of what I 

1030
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:04,800
started envisioning where like 
he he he come out the gate with 

1031
01:04:04,800 --> 01:04:09,200
this high touch count suck. 
So not score that many points 

1032
01:04:09,560 --> 01:04:11,360
and then get the ball taken away
from him. 

1033
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:13,080
And I, I, I think that's what's 
happening. 

1034
01:04:13,880 --> 01:04:16,120
I I think that's the correct 
read here. 

1035
01:04:16,120 --> 01:04:20,080
And I mean, really the funniest 
part about it is like, this is 

1036
01:04:20,240 --> 01:04:23,560
kind of exactly the thesis Pat 
laid out in in his Rico Dowdle 

1037
01:04:23,560 --> 01:04:25,320
article. 
Or is like, even if you're 

1038
01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:28,160
wrong, it's OK 'cause you're 
paying for a guy to get you like

1039
01:04:28,720 --> 01:04:32,400
8 or 9 points a game in the 
range that he goes like, and now

1040
01:04:32,400 --> 01:04:34,360
we're getting it and we're like,
this sucks. 

1041
01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:37,800
It's like, well, yeah, that that
was what was like, expected. 

1042
01:04:37,800 --> 01:04:40,680
And we're just hoping, we're 
hoping to be wrong. 

1043
01:04:40,680 --> 01:04:42,120
And there is a little upside 
there. 

1044
01:04:42,760 --> 01:04:46,120
I mean, if you want the like 
silver lining or copium, if 

1045
01:04:46,120 --> 01:04:49,040
you're sitting on a bunch of 
Rico Dowdle, he's definitely the

1046
01:04:49,040 --> 01:04:51,720
favorite to consolidate the 
volume in the backfield. 

1047
01:04:51,720 --> 01:04:53,880
I just don't know how much 
consolidation there is to be 

1048
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:55,200
done. 
Really. 

1049
01:04:55,200 --> 01:04:59,320
What you're hoping is the 
Cowboys offense can improve, 

1050
01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:02,280
which we saw this last year as 
well. 

1051
01:05:02,560 --> 01:05:04,680
Now it manifested in a different
way last year. 

1052
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:07,440
So it this might just be like 
some shitty pattern matching, 

1053
01:05:07,440 --> 01:05:10,440
but the Cowboys offense wasn't 
great through the 1st. 

1054
01:05:10,760 --> 01:05:12,920
I I think all the way through 
there by I think it was like all

1055
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:14,200
the way. 
Through Yeah, yeah, it took it 

1056
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:17,520
took until after by and then 
they started spamming targets to

1057
01:05:17,520 --> 01:05:20,280
CD Lamb and all of a sudden 
they're good again. 

1058
01:05:20,360 --> 01:05:22,520
They they self scout and they're
like, Oh yeah, we got to throw 

1059
01:05:22,520 --> 01:05:26,280
the CD Lamb this year. 
It feels a little bit more like 

1060
01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:30,080
CD Lamb has been intentionally 
removed by good defenses, like 

1061
01:05:30,080 --> 01:05:32,560
they're really right, right 
away. 

1062
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:38,040
They said when we stop CD Lam, 
this team sucks, let's do that. 

1063
01:05:38,440 --> 01:05:42,400
And they're right. 
So you just have to, if you're 

1064
01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:46,960
hoping for something more out of
Rico dowdle #1 is like, well, 

1065
01:05:46,960 --> 01:05:48,880
this is what we should have 
expected in the 1st place. 

1066
01:05:48,880 --> 01:05:52,080
But #2 is you're just really 
hoping the Cowboys can figure 

1067
01:05:52,080 --> 01:05:56,240
out something on offense that is
not entirely garbage time, 

1068
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:58,040
because that's all the offense 
is right now. 

1069
01:05:58,040 --> 01:05:59,560
For the Cowboys, it's just 
garbage time. 

1070
01:06:01,400 --> 01:06:05,080
Yeah. 
So last thing that on this chart

1071
01:06:05,080 --> 01:06:10,800
that was kind of surprising to 
me was this kind of low usage 

1072
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:16,320
rate for Braille and Allen. 
So your eyes do not deceive you 

1073
01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:23,320
even even them even look looking
just at last week, he was on his

1074
01:06:23,320 --> 01:06:26,280
fantasy useful snap rate was 
like 26%. 

1075
01:06:26,960 --> 01:06:30,360
And what's kind of interesting 
and he still actually produced 

1076
01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:33,840
so that that actually translated
to 11 rush attempts and eight 

1077
01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:37,840
routes. 
And so he actually got 10 

1078
01:06:37,840 --> 01:06:42,280
expected points in that game, 
but I think that was just 

1079
01:06:42,280 --> 01:06:45,320
because of a large play volume 
count for The Jets. 

1080
01:06:45,840 --> 01:06:53,800
So to me, to me, that lens to 
still like, I think you have to 

1081
01:06:53,800 --> 01:06:56,400
be really stuck to be starting 
Braille and Allen. 

1082
01:06:57,160 --> 01:07:02,640
And then in kind of best ball 
stuff, you you either need him 

1083
01:07:02,680 --> 01:07:05,640
to force much more of a 
committee and he certainly 

1084
01:07:05,640 --> 01:07:09,880
could. 
He's he's he looks fantastic or 

1085
01:07:09,880 --> 01:07:16,120
Ram or an injury or something 
like that or or these kind of 

1086
01:07:16,120 --> 01:07:20,000
like really high play count 
games for The Jets. 

1087
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:26,520
So that's something that I 
wasn't expecting and a take 

1088
01:07:26,520 --> 01:07:28,080
away. 
I wasn't expecting coming away 

1089
01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:30,280
from this game after watching 
it. 

1090
01:07:30,640 --> 01:07:36,200
But I think it is kind of 
important that he right now in 

1091
01:07:36,200 --> 01:07:40,040
the current split, he needs a 
high, he needs a high play count

1092
01:07:40,040 --> 01:07:43,120
game for The Jets to be 
relevant. 

1093
01:07:44,000 --> 01:07:47,440
Yeah, not particularly useful 
right now, but just incredible 

1094
01:07:47,440 --> 01:07:49,720
contingent upside. 
Yeah, of course. 

1095
01:07:50,240 --> 01:07:52,800
I mean, I think we we said this 
last. 

1096
01:07:52,800 --> 01:07:55,200
Right D handcuff. 
D Handcuff. 

1097
01:07:55,560 --> 01:07:59,960
Top top five talented running 
back in the league already and 

1098
01:07:59,960 --> 01:08:01,880
I'll, I'll go to war with anyone
on that one. 

1099
01:08:01,920 --> 01:08:08,160
I, I, he's extremely good. 
So the the rest of the NFL just 

1100
01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:10,640
fumble the bag tremendously. 
Not drafting this guy. 

1101
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:13,960
It is so infuriating for him to 
be stuck on The Jets behind 

1102
01:08:13,960 --> 01:08:19,040
Breece Hall cuz it it is kind of
impossible to usurp Breece Hall 

1103
01:08:19,040 --> 01:08:22,840
because that guy also. 
That then that's Breece Hall. 

1104
01:08:22,840 --> 01:08:25,760
He so he. 
So let me let me change this. 

1105
01:08:26,680 --> 01:08:32,880
At last week he was at just 56% 
useful snap rate with an overall

1106
01:08:32,880 --> 01:08:37,920
at 68% snap rate, which is 
honestly that that's fine. 

1107
01:08:38,439 --> 01:08:45,680
And then 63% useful 27% on for 
the three weeks that's fine. 

1108
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:50,279
But I think if you're paying 
that top five pick you, you were

1109
01:08:50,279 --> 01:08:53,040
certainly hoping for more than 
that, and that might be 

1110
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:56,279
disguised by a higher play count
as well. 

1111
01:08:56,399 --> 01:08:59,359
Yeah, I think the snap rate is 
obfuscating the usage though for

1112
01:08:59,359 --> 01:09:02,680
Breeze Hall, which we can go to 
the next chart and kind of 

1113
01:09:03,000 --> 01:09:07,760
because Breeze is averaging 16 
carries a game just about and 

1114
01:09:07,760 --> 01:09:11,080
seven targets a game. 
So when you adjust the the 

1115
01:09:11,080 --> 01:09:13,640
targets for adjusted 
opportunities, it's you just 

1116
01:09:13,640 --> 01:09:17,080
multiply targets by two 'cause 
they're about twice as valuable 

1117
01:09:17,080 --> 01:09:19,520
as a carry. 
Barice Hall is getting 30 

1118
01:09:19,520 --> 01:09:23,760
adjusted opportunities a game 
that like that's, that's insane.

1119
01:09:23,760 --> 01:09:27,760
There's a reason why he is all 
the way up here just about at 

1120
01:09:27,760 --> 01:09:30,200
the 20 expected fantasy points 
per game line. 

1121
01:09:30,560 --> 01:09:36,479
I think it's closer to 15 though
on like a a normalized jets snot

1122
01:09:36,479 --> 01:09:43,120
count is what I'm saying, Or, or
maybe it's 17, but it's it's I 

1123
01:09:43,120 --> 01:09:45,520
don't think it's 20. 
I don't think it's touching 20 

1124
01:09:46,880 --> 01:09:50,960
if if they don't have as many 
play count as they as they did. 

1125
01:09:51,880 --> 01:09:55,320
I mean, I think part of it 
though is just like in the games

1126
01:09:55,320 --> 01:09:59,360
where they are more like when it
when it's on the line and they 

1127
01:09:59,360 --> 01:10:02,320
really need to win. 
I don't, I don't think that 

1128
01:10:02,320 --> 01:10:04,840
they're going to take Breece off
the field quite as much. 

1129
01:10:05,480 --> 01:10:08,880
But in a game where you're just 
lacking the Patriots, like 

1130
01:10:09,200 --> 01:10:12,360
you're very happy to get Braylon
Allen looks great. 

1131
01:10:12,400 --> 01:10:15,040
Like, if I'm the one who's 
making personnel decisions for 

1132
01:10:15,040 --> 01:10:18,520
The Jets, I'm very happy to get 
Braylon Allen in the game, 

1133
01:10:18,840 --> 01:10:22,000
especially when we're in a 
situation where we're salting it

1134
01:10:22,000 --> 01:10:25,120
away, you know, but. 
You're not. 

1135
01:10:25,240 --> 01:10:29,040
You're, you're. 
So I, I just counted up. 

1136
01:10:29,040 --> 01:10:32,520
They had they had 70 offensive 
plays against the Patriots. 

1137
01:10:32,800 --> 01:10:37,040
So are you saying then in a game
where it's closer to 50 that 

1138
01:10:37,360 --> 01:10:40,080
those are just coming almost 
directly from Braylon Allen 

1139
01:10:40,240 --> 01:10:47,840
where he so he had he had 19 hit
like 21 of those 70 snaps? 

1140
01:10:48,040 --> 01:10:53,080
Are you saying that it goes to 
50 and then it's more like 40°? 

1141
01:10:53,200 --> 01:10:55,720
Just an overall stop count? 
10 to Braylon. 

1142
01:10:55,960 --> 01:10:59,120
Yeah, proportionately, Braylon 
loses a larger proportion of his

1143
01:10:59,120 --> 01:11:03,680
snaps and braces his snaps. 
I think, you know, there's a lot

1144
01:11:03,680 --> 01:11:06,240
of these coaches where we think 
that they're not the sharpest 

1145
01:11:06,240 --> 01:11:09,640
tools in the shed. 
But I do think that, you know, 

1146
01:11:09,840 --> 01:11:11,920
the The Jets are aware of like, 
OK. 

1147
01:11:11,960 --> 01:11:15,760
Is that correct, though? 
If if you have two incredible 

1148
01:11:15,760 --> 01:11:19,720
talents and like all these 
coaches are like, yeah, we want 

1149
01:11:19,720 --> 01:11:25,200
to keep our guys fresh. 
Like do do you just like, Oh 

1150
01:11:25,200 --> 01:11:30,200
yeah, Braylon, you're great, but
you're riding pine for most of 

1151
01:11:30,200 --> 01:11:32,920
this game. 
Well, he was going to ride pine 

1152
01:11:32,920 --> 01:11:35,920
for most of the game, but you're
only getting 10 snaps. 

1153
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:40,920
Like we got to get preset there.
Well, I mean 1010 snaps in A50, 

1154
01:11:41,200 --> 01:11:44,600
you know, 50 play game like you 
said, that's that's a 20% snap 

1155
01:11:44,600 --> 01:11:47,120
rate, which would be consistent 
with what he got in the last 

1156
01:11:47,120 --> 01:11:51,160
game, right? 
And no, I think he was closer to

1157
01:11:51,160 --> 01:11:52,680
30. 
OK, 32. 

1158
01:11:53,640 --> 01:11:56,920
OK, well, yeah, we'll we'll see 
how it plays out. 

1159
01:11:57,600 --> 01:12:00,600
All that to say, I'm not 
terribly concerned about Brees 

1160
01:12:00,600 --> 01:12:03,400
just because he gets so much 
like the the guys. 

1161
01:12:03,400 --> 01:12:07,280
Yeah, yeah, I'm not worried 
about a bad season for him, but 

1162
01:12:07,560 --> 01:12:11,760
I am worried about it being the 
potential to to it being like 

1163
01:12:12,000 --> 01:12:16,120
just a little bit lower even in 
a Goodyear a little bit lower 

1164
01:12:16,160 --> 01:12:19,080
than kind of like the the 
legendary season. 

1165
01:12:19,640 --> 01:12:25,240
Yeah, that's that's reasonable. 
Other guys worth pointing out on

1166
01:12:25,240 --> 01:12:28,680
this chart, Aaron Jones still 
being super efficient. 

1167
01:12:28,680 --> 01:12:32,440
Aaron Jones in a good offense. 
He's looking like a really big 

1168
01:12:32,440 --> 01:12:36,600
win. 
I think in general, like in the,

1169
01:12:37,160 --> 01:12:41,000
you know, daily and weekly 
fantasy formats, the market is 

1170
01:12:41,000 --> 01:12:44,320
kind of caught up to the fact 
that, Oh yeah, we should be 

1171
01:12:44,320 --> 01:12:47,000
pricing this guy like he's he's 
one of the better running backs 

1172
01:12:47,000 --> 01:12:48,920
in the league. 
He he seems like he's getting 

1173
01:12:49,360 --> 01:12:51,400
pretty reasonably priced. 
I'm seeing him go like, you 

1174
01:12:51,400 --> 01:12:54,600
know, second round of the dog 
bowl right now, which feels 

1175
01:12:54,720 --> 01:12:59,920
pretty appropriate. 
Other the the guys down there 

1176
01:12:59,960 --> 01:13:04,400
like the really efficient weeks 
from Derrick Henry and Jonathan 

1177
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:07,480
Taylor, certainly helping them 
with the multiple touchdown week

1178
01:13:07,480 --> 01:13:11,400
from Taylor and Henry getting 
the really, really sweet matchup

1179
01:13:11,400 --> 01:13:15,000
against the Cowboys. 
But when you look at where 

1180
01:13:15,000 --> 01:13:18,840
they're at on the chart, it's 
like you got David Montgomery, 

1181
01:13:18,840 --> 01:13:22,360
Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, 
Romander Stevenson, Devin 

1182
01:13:22,360 --> 01:13:26,080
Singletary all kind of cluster 
together in like a pretty 

1183
01:13:26,080 --> 01:13:29,600
similar fantasy point, expected 
fantasy point per game range. 

1184
01:13:30,080 --> 01:13:34,080
So I think the biggest 
difference is you have some 

1185
01:13:34,120 --> 01:13:36,440
crazy ceiling with Taylor and 
Henry. 

1186
01:13:36,720 --> 01:13:39,960
That's probably a lot harder for
the guys like Singletary and 

1187
01:13:40,200 --> 01:13:42,120
Montgomery and Stevenson to get 
to. 

1188
01:13:42,640 --> 01:13:46,520
But you know, as far as like 
your, your median outcome for 

1189
01:13:46,520 --> 01:13:50,400
those guys, it's just not, not 
that exciting for their cost, 

1190
01:13:50,640 --> 01:13:54,280
but their ceiling is fantastic. 
So in any given rate, those guys

1191
01:13:54,280 --> 01:13:58,240
can go off. 
Right, Yeah, I, I, I agree for 

1192
01:13:58,240 --> 01:14:01,200
sure. 
And it, it, I'm get kind of 

1193
01:14:01,200 --> 01:14:03,920
getting the vibe of like when 
people saying it's the year of 

1194
01:14:03,920 --> 01:14:07,520
the running back, it's the year 
of right now. 

1195
01:14:07,520 --> 01:14:10,480
It's it's it's the month of two 
or three running backs. 

1196
01:14:10,920 --> 01:14:15,880
Yeah, I'm becoming substantially
less concerned with it being the

1197
01:14:15,880 --> 01:14:17,800
year of the running back quote, 
UN quote. 

1198
01:14:18,320 --> 01:14:21,400
Yeah. 
I'm concerned it's the year of 

1199
01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:24,640
the Sequan like that's. 
I'm really concerned that it's 

1200
01:14:24,640 --> 01:14:27,120
the year of the Sequan. 
That's the spot where I'm like, 

1201
01:14:27,120 --> 01:14:29,880
yeah, this one might actually 
really hurt me. 

1202
01:14:29,920 --> 01:14:34,200
I mean, if it's if he keeps 
doing what he's doing right now,

1203
01:14:34,200 --> 01:14:37,080
which go ahead and flip to the 
next chart because I want to 

1204
01:14:37,080 --> 01:14:39,960
show Saquon here and there's 
another guy on this chart. 

1205
01:14:39,960 --> 01:14:45,040
I want to like if he keeps doing
what he's doing here, it's it's 

1206
01:14:45,040 --> 01:14:49,120
almost a situation where if you 
have 0% Saquon, go ahead and 

1207
01:14:49,120 --> 01:14:55,520
take your expected advance rate 
of 16.667% and don't quite cut 

1208
01:14:55,520 --> 01:14:58,880
it in half, but get close. 
You know, cuz those Saquon teams

1209
01:14:58,880 --> 01:15:01,560
are advancing baby. 
If you're in a pod with a Saquon

1210
01:15:01,560 --> 01:15:05,840
team, which every pod has one, 
one of those spots is already 

1211
01:15:05,840 --> 01:15:07,920
locked up if he keeps doing what
he's doing. 

1212
01:15:07,920 --> 01:15:14,280
So definitely concerning. 
Yeah, I, I, I have 0% Saquon and

1213
01:15:15,720 --> 01:15:18,800
pretty close to what you say my 
expected advance ratio. 

1214
01:15:19,840 --> 01:15:21,440
Not quite half, but getting 
there. 

1215
01:15:21,960 --> 01:15:24,600
Yeah. 
Guy, guy that I wanted to point 

1216
01:15:24,600 --> 01:15:28,320
out here, DeAndre Swift, you 
can, you can see him. 

1217
01:15:28,320 --> 01:15:32,360
He's in the the 10 to 15 
expected fantasy point range. 

1218
01:15:32,360 --> 01:15:34,120
He's just kind of right in the 
middle of the chart. 

1219
01:15:34,120 --> 01:15:36,400
You can see Zach Charbonnay's 
big pink bubble. 

1220
01:15:36,720 --> 01:15:40,920
DeAndre Swift with the comically
small bubble posting. 

1221
01:15:41,120 --> 01:15:43,120
I don't know if I've ever seen 
this before. 

1222
01:15:43,600 --> 01:15:49,320
We saw it with Joe Mixon. 
The 0% success rate. 0% success 

1223
01:15:49,360 --> 01:15:52,440
rate, that's incredible. 
Yeah, 0% success rate, which 

1224
01:15:52,960 --> 01:15:57,160
almost makes me think like, man,
if I got all those opportunities

1225
01:15:57,160 --> 01:16:00,760
now granted I die after one 
opportunity on an NFL field, you

1226
01:16:00,760 --> 01:16:02,320
know, like. 
Yeah, it would be the 

1227
01:16:02,320 --> 01:16:04,680
opportunity to die. 
I don't get. 

1228
01:16:04,680 --> 01:16:08,120
Suicide by NFL. 
Like DeAndre slept to see, but 

1229
01:16:08,120 --> 01:16:12,160
I'm like, I wonder like if I was
invincible and I could just take

1230
01:16:12,160 --> 01:16:15,720
the 15 opportunities without, 
like could I have higher than a 

1231
01:16:15,720 --> 01:16:19,040
0% success rate? 
Could I have one run be counted 

1232
01:16:19,040 --> 01:16:21,840
as successful? 
Like maybe, just maybe, you 

1233
01:16:21,840 --> 01:16:24,480
know, is my feeling. 
If you just got regenerated 

1234
01:16:24,480 --> 01:16:26,600
after every carry. 
Yeah, like I die. 

1235
01:16:26,600 --> 01:16:29,240
It's it's kind of like the day 
after tomorrow, Like you're just

1236
01:16:29,240 --> 01:16:32,200
dying over and over every play. 
But you, you wake up in the 

1237
01:16:32,200 --> 01:16:33,840
backfield and they're snapping 
it too. 

1238
01:16:34,240 --> 01:16:37,080
I like to think that my field 
vision's probably OK enough that

1239
01:16:37,080 --> 01:16:39,000
I could I could turn one of 
those into a success. 

1240
01:16:39,720 --> 01:16:43,280
I die upon being tackled. 
Yeah. 

1241
01:16:43,280 --> 01:16:46,200
DeAndre Swift Cuttable in all 
formats, yes. 

1242
01:16:47,400 --> 01:16:50,120
Yeah, yeah. 
I mean. 

1243
01:16:52,640 --> 01:16:55,280
I've heard people say like, 
don't cut him just yet. 

1244
01:16:55,280 --> 01:16:56,800
He's still getting so much 
opportunity. 

1245
01:16:57,080 --> 01:17:01,080
Listen, if you're in a managed 
league, you want your opponents 

1246
01:17:01,080 --> 01:17:03,520
to start DeAndre Swift. 
Like I just, I promise you he 

1247
01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:05,880
just got one of the better 
matchups he's going to get this 

1248
01:17:05,880 --> 01:17:09,880
year against the Colts and he 
turned in a 0% success rate. 

1249
01:17:09,960 --> 01:17:14,200
Like get him on your opponent's 
teams as quick as you possibly 

1250
01:17:14,200 --> 01:17:17,040
can. 
Just just RIP the Band-Aid off 

1251
01:17:17,120 --> 01:17:20,840
like. 
Yeah, so he scored six points. 

1252
01:17:21,320 --> 01:17:25,360
I mean, I have points where I 
have teams where I'd love 6 

1253
01:17:25,360 --> 01:17:29,200
points. 
That's, that's fair, non 

1254
01:17:29,200 --> 01:17:33,840
derogatory, that's fair. 
A guy, another guy who's just 

1255
01:17:33,840 --> 01:17:36,520
had a really bad go of it 
looking terrible. 

1256
01:17:37,520 --> 01:17:41,120
Now the other thing is DeAndre 
Swift was losing work to Roshan 

1257
01:17:41,120 --> 01:17:43,120
Johnson, like Roshan Johnson. 
Almost. 

1258
01:17:43,120 --> 01:17:45,880
Yeah, that is the other piece. 
It's like maybe it's going away,

1259
01:17:45,880 --> 01:17:49,160
maybe it's bad now and it's 
getting worse. 

1260
01:17:49,360 --> 01:17:54,040
And I, I, I mean, my, my take on
Roshan was always kind of that 

1261
01:17:54,040 --> 01:17:57,600
he was of the Charbenet mold 
where he could be a consolidator

1262
01:17:57,600 --> 01:17:59,840
because he can do everything. 
He's a bigger body guy. 

1263
01:18:00,240 --> 01:18:02,640
He's not going to like wow you 
on tape. 

1264
01:18:02,640 --> 01:18:07,880
But he looked, I mean, this the 
carries that I saw for Swift 

1265
01:18:07,880 --> 01:18:09,560
versus the carries I saw for 
Roshan. 

1266
01:18:09,880 --> 01:18:13,720
When I watched Roshan, I was 
like, I mean, give this guy the 

1267
01:18:13,720 --> 01:18:15,880
ball. 
Like, it's not super special, 

1268
01:18:15,880 --> 01:18:18,000
but it's way better than the 
alternative. 

1269
01:18:18,000 --> 01:18:23,760
So in that same vein is Rashad 
White, who even his coach is now

1270
01:18:23,760 --> 01:18:26,600
saying like, oh, yeah, Bucky 
Irving deserves more work. 

1271
01:18:26,880 --> 01:18:30,400
I mean, Rashad White just 
getting completely outclassed as

1272
01:18:30,400 --> 01:18:33,080
a rusher. 
But his saving grace is that he 

1273
01:18:33,080 --> 01:18:35,400
is still a very competent 
receiver. 

1274
01:18:36,800 --> 01:18:41,560
I mean, man, Rashad White is 
just like not late stage it. 

1275
01:18:41,560 --> 01:18:44,720
It's like if you took, you know,
Leonard Fournette on his season 

1276
01:18:44,720 --> 01:18:47,640
with the Bucks where he was 
like, he can be out there and 

1277
01:18:47,640 --> 01:18:51,440
get carries and get targets and 
like do none of it well, but it 

1278
01:18:51,440 --> 01:18:53,760
doesn't matter because he's just
getting the volume and he'll 

1279
01:18:53,760 --> 01:18:56,840
score touchdowns. 
Like that's that's kind of like 

1280
01:18:56,840 --> 01:19:01,640
how Rashad White is, but not 
scoring as many touchdowns and 

1281
01:19:02,000 --> 01:19:04,480
like surprisingly even worse 
than Leonard Fournette as a 

1282
01:19:04,480 --> 01:19:07,200
rusher, but like a little bit 
better as a passer. 

1283
01:19:07,200 --> 01:19:09,880
So it's like when you 
Frankenstein all of that 

1284
01:19:09,880 --> 01:19:15,480
together, do you still just get 
something not super appealing? 

1285
01:19:16,040 --> 01:19:18,160
Right. 
And the other thing about White 

1286
01:19:18,160 --> 01:19:22,400
was he was an older rookie 
because I think he I think it 

1287
01:19:22,400 --> 01:19:24,480
took him a while to figure it 
out in college. 

1288
01:19:25,040 --> 01:19:30,640
So like, even though he's only 
just kind of arrived, he like he

1289
01:19:30,640 --> 01:19:33,400
turns 26. 
It's not, it's not that old. 

1290
01:19:33,400 --> 01:19:36,040
It's really not, but it's not 
young. 

1291
01:19:38,160 --> 01:19:41,240
So I think that I think that's 
kind of relevant too. 

1292
01:19:41,840 --> 01:19:46,000
Yeah, a really quick note that I
wanted to have on Naji Harris 

1293
01:19:46,000 --> 01:19:49,120
here. 
You I mean it's not efficient, 

1294
01:19:49,120 --> 01:19:53,560
it's not pretty, but Jalen 
Warren got pulled from the game 

1295
01:19:53,840 --> 01:19:57,520
because Tomlin said that he 
didn't look right out there goes

1296
01:19:57,520 --> 01:20:00,720
for an MRI on the knee no 
structural damage. 

1297
01:20:00,840 --> 01:20:03,320
So kind of reading the tea 
leaves there sounds like 

1298
01:20:03,560 --> 01:20:07,120
probably like a minor knee 
sprain or maybe maybe some 

1299
01:20:07,120 --> 01:20:10,520
bruising or but something is not
right with Jalen Warren right 

1300
01:20:10,520 --> 01:20:12,560
now. 
You know maybe compensation 

1301
01:20:12,560 --> 01:20:14,840
injury from the hamstring before
the season. 

1302
01:20:15,360 --> 01:20:19,520
But man, I mean as. 
Vice president of the Jalen 

1303
01:20:19,520 --> 01:20:20,520
Warren Fan club. 
I won't. 

1304
01:20:20,520 --> 01:20:22,520
I won't take the president roll 
away from Pat. 

1305
01:20:22,840 --> 01:20:24,920
He'd be mad at me. 
But as vice president of the 

1306
01:20:24,920 --> 01:20:25,960
Jalen Warren fan. 
Club. 

1307
01:20:25,960 --> 01:20:27,480
I think he bet you haven't. 
No, actually. 

1308
01:20:28,240 --> 01:20:31,400
It's yeah, it's not a popular 
club currently. 

1309
01:20:31,400 --> 01:20:34,960
I mean I'm still holding out 
hope because he was starting to 

1310
01:20:34,960 --> 01:20:38,960
flip Naji already for work 
before the injury stuff and so. 

1311
01:20:39,000 --> 01:20:39,680
Right. 
He was. 

1312
01:20:39,680 --> 01:20:43,200
He was actually a workhorse in 
the first half is what? 

1313
01:20:43,200 --> 01:20:47,240
So I think so many tweeted that,
that he's a workhorse in the 

1314
01:20:47,240 --> 01:20:49,680
first half. 
And then they say, oh, there's 

1315
01:20:49,680 --> 01:20:53,600
something not right here. 
So they talk about and I, I 

1316
01:20:53,600 --> 01:20:57,680
don't read that too negatively 
because so I, I, I, maybe I 

1317
01:20:57,680 --> 01:20:59,320
mentioned this too much, maybe I
don't mention enough. 

1318
01:20:59,320 --> 01:21:04,280
So I did coach and one of the 
things about coaching players is

1319
01:21:04,280 --> 01:21:07,760
that they will hide and lie to 
you about injuries because they 

1320
01:21:07,760 --> 01:21:12,080
want to play. 
And it's part of your job to 

1321
01:21:12,080 --> 01:21:15,520
figure that out when that's 
happening and to protect them 

1322
01:21:15,520 --> 01:21:20,600
from themselves. 
So like, it's possible that he's

1323
01:21:20,600 --> 01:21:22,880
like, oh, this guy looks bad 
now, so I'm not going to play 

1324
01:21:22,880 --> 01:21:25,840
him. 
But I, I, I, I think it's also 

1325
01:21:25,840 --> 01:21:32,040
pretty likely that after kind of
an extended absence, that Warren

1326
01:21:32,040 --> 01:21:34,280
just wanted to play. 
He, he wasn't going to tell 

1327
01:21:34,280 --> 01:21:36,280
anyone. 
And they're like, OK, we, we, 

1328
01:21:36,280 --> 01:21:39,760
we, we need you healthy bud. 
Like you, you need to get right.

1329
01:21:41,200 --> 01:21:46,560
Yeah, so hopeful that Warren can
get right and then deliver down 

1330
01:21:46,560 --> 01:21:48,520
the stretch. 
I mean truly could be the 

1331
01:21:48,520 --> 01:21:52,120
comeback of all comebacks for 
people down tremendously bad 

1332
01:21:52,120 --> 01:21:56,840
right now in their basketball 
portfolios the the other. 

1333
01:21:56,840 --> 01:21:59,440
Guys. 
Yeah, that that that was 

1334
01:21:59,720 --> 01:22:06,520
specifically talking about me, 
another guy near Naji on the 

1335
01:22:06,520 --> 01:22:08,840
chart. 
So he's mentioning all that for 

1336
01:22:08,840 --> 01:22:11,600
Naji because he might see some 
increased work this week. 

1337
01:22:12,120 --> 01:22:15,040
The whole if if you heard like 
Naji was in a sling after the 

1338
01:22:15,040 --> 01:22:17,600
game, sounds like that's a 
complete non issue. 

1339
01:22:17,600 --> 01:22:23,720
Should be good to go, Brian. 
Brian Robinson, another guy who 

1340
01:22:23,720 --> 01:22:26,560
sets up for potential workload 
increase with Austin Eckler 

1341
01:22:26,560 --> 01:22:31,880
getting the concussion in with a
a slightly shorter week playing 

1342
01:22:31,880 --> 01:22:35,200
on Monday night. 
So Brian Robinson and what we 

1343
01:22:35,200 --> 01:22:38,680
highlighted is a potential 
really high scoring game and and

1344
01:22:38,680 --> 01:22:41,960
Robinson is is competent as a 
receiver and they're willing to 

1345
01:22:41,960 --> 01:22:45,640
lean on him as you know, a a 
bell cow without Eckler. 

1346
01:22:45,640 --> 01:22:48,920
I I think Robinson could set up 
as a smash this week. 

1347
01:22:48,920 --> 01:22:52,360
Unfortunately, I've kind of seen
people getting Privy to that 

1348
01:22:52,360 --> 01:22:54,120
already. 
I've been trying to like push 

1349
01:22:54,120 --> 01:22:57,320
him late in in the dog bowls and
I I keep getting sniped on him. 

1350
01:22:57,320 --> 01:23:01,120
So I think it might just if 
you're watching this live right 

1351
01:23:01,120 --> 01:23:05,000
now and you're playing, you 
know, underdog battle royales or

1352
01:23:05,000 --> 01:23:07,920
the dog bowl, this is your call 
to go. 

1353
01:23:08,000 --> 01:23:10,800
Like, you know, while you're 
listening to this, fire up a 

1354
01:23:10,800 --> 01:23:14,280
bunch of drafts, grab all the 
Brian Robinson that you can 

1355
01:23:14,280 --> 01:23:16,360
right now because the price will
rise. 

1356
01:23:16,360 --> 01:23:19,400
The price is going to rise 
substantially later this week as

1357
01:23:19,400 --> 01:23:22,280
we get news about the Eckler 
injury and his availability and 

1358
01:23:22,280 --> 01:23:25,640
as we get projections out on 
this extremely high total gain. 

1359
01:23:26,680 --> 01:23:31,480
Right. 
Last guy that I wanted to talk 

1360
01:23:31,480 --> 01:23:36,360
about here was Josh Jacobs. 
I want to start this with the 

1361
01:23:36,360 --> 01:23:39,920
caveat that I'm probably a 
little biased on Josh Jacobs 

1362
01:23:39,920 --> 01:23:43,480
because I had this conversation 
with some guys that do the 

1363
01:23:43,520 --> 01:23:48,360
weekly rankings over at leg up 
and I was I was kind of Pooh 

1364
01:23:48,360 --> 01:23:51,720
poohed that this this analysis 
was maybe incorrect or maybe 

1365
01:23:51,720 --> 01:23:55,400
just me being a hater, but 
Jacobs looked pretty bad to me. 

1366
01:23:55,560 --> 01:23:59,600
Emmanuel Wilson looked like the 
better runner and, and I didn't 

1367
01:23:59,600 --> 01:24:02,000
think it was close. 
Like if if it was like, oh, 

1368
01:24:02,000 --> 01:24:05,560
maybe it was just like I I 
thought it was like going away. 

1369
01:24:05,560 --> 01:24:08,880
If you just take the name plates
away and you watch these two 

1370
01:24:08,880 --> 01:24:12,080
guys, you'd be like, yeah, that 
guy is, is the way better 

1371
01:24:12,080 --> 01:24:13,560
running back. 
Like I don't know who the other 

1372
01:24:13,560 --> 01:24:15,440
guy is, but I don't know why 
they have them on the field. 

1373
01:24:16,560 --> 01:24:18,600
The. 
The deal we have, yeah, we are 

1374
01:24:18,600 --> 01:24:22,480
haters, we right. 
Let's read out some numbers. 

1375
01:24:22,760 --> 01:24:27,480
So Josh Jacobs fantasy points 
over expected last week, 

1376
01:24:28,000 --> 01:24:33,800
negative 7.8 Emmanuel Wilson 
fantasy points over expected 

1377
01:24:33,920 --> 01:24:37,320
plus 7.6. 
I'm, I'm, I'm guessing that's 

1378
01:24:37,320 --> 01:24:39,880
what you saw on on. 
Yeah, it was. 

1379
01:24:39,880 --> 01:24:43,040
Also Jacobs had a pretty poor 
success rate. 

1380
01:24:43,040 --> 01:24:45,880
I believe it was 31%. 
Not ideal. 

1381
01:24:46,120 --> 01:24:47,800
Bad rush yards over expected 
Which? 

1382
01:24:47,840 --> 01:24:51,000
And 39% on the year too. 
So it's not like it that that's 

1383
01:24:51,000 --> 01:24:54,600
some outlier. 
And 3039% though is, is 

1384
01:24:54,920 --> 01:24:58,480
reasonable, like 40% is kind of 
the threshold for like, you 

1385
01:24:58,480 --> 01:25:03,440
know, OK, good. 
And and also like you're playing

1386
01:25:03,480 --> 01:25:05,840
with Malik Willis as your 
quarterbacks, like maybe they're

1387
01:25:05,840 --> 01:25:07,280
able. 
To it's it's Kenneth Walker 

1388
01:25:07,280 --> 01:25:10,720
esque because Kenneth Wasker is 
38.9 on the year. 

1389
01:25:11,200 --> 01:25:14,680
Yeah, so I mean, I I got. 
When you're a plotter, it's not 

1390
01:25:14,680 --> 01:25:16,440
good enough. 
You need to be a home runner, a 

1391
01:25:16,880 --> 01:25:20,520
home run hitter to to be at 40% 
I think. 

1392
01:25:21,000 --> 01:25:24,400
Yeah, let me let me I'm going to
recite some of the bowl case 

1393
01:25:24,400 --> 01:25:27,120
that was given to me by the Josh
Jacobs defenders. 

1394
01:25:27,960 --> 01:25:30,960
But Jacobs better and rush yards
over expected per attempt on the

1395
01:25:30,960 --> 01:25:35,160
year on more volume than Wilson 
had a higher rate of 15 plus 

1396
01:25:35,160 --> 01:25:38,680
mile per hour runs. 
I don't think that's relevant at

1397
01:25:38,680 --> 01:25:41,280
all, especially. 
Not in the sample size. 

1398
01:25:41,280 --> 01:25:43,800
Sample for Wilson, Yeah, you're,
you're literally just asking 

1399
01:25:43,800 --> 01:25:46,000
like how many long runs did the 
guy get that? 

1400
01:25:46,000 --> 01:25:47,640
That doesn't move the needle for
me at all. 

1401
01:25:48,320 --> 01:25:51,160
But Jacobs with a higher PFF 
rush grade, a higher breakaway 

1402
01:25:51,160 --> 01:25:53,920
rate, again, breakaway rate on 
the sample for Wilson, I don't 

1403
01:25:53,920 --> 01:25:56,800
think is going to be too sticky 
there. 

1404
01:25:57,600 --> 01:26:00,240
Jacobs also saw a higher rate of
stacked boxes. 

1405
01:26:02,080 --> 01:26:04,760
But yeah, so there there was 
some pushback to my Josh Jacobs 

1406
01:26:04,760 --> 01:26:07,120
hating. 
I will just say I'm trying to 

1407
01:26:07,120 --> 01:26:10,920
get ahead of this. 
I think that I would not be 

1408
01:26:10,920 --> 01:26:15,160
surprised at all if over the 
next few weeks we see Jacobs 

1409
01:26:15,280 --> 01:26:18,720
kind of trend away, especially 
after you get Jordan Love back, 

1410
01:26:19,360 --> 01:26:23,600
have this turn into the more 
typical the floor pure split 

1411
01:26:23,600 --> 01:26:27,320
backfield he you. 
I have to say that's incredible 

1412
01:26:27,320 --> 01:26:32,880
cope of like, Oh well, he's not 
playing that well, but his rush 

1413
01:26:32,880 --> 01:26:36,920
yards over expected per attempt 
is slightly better than Emmanuel

1414
01:26:36,920 --> 01:26:39,440
Wilson. 
Like that's not great. 

1415
01:26:39,760 --> 01:26:43,960
And, and I mean, there's no way 
you'll be able to guess who this

1416
01:26:43,960 --> 01:26:47,880
is from because it came from 
legendary player Hater himself, 

1417
01:26:47,880 --> 01:26:51,680
Sam Sherman, who I thought would
surely be on my side hating Josh

1418
01:26:51,680 --> 01:26:53,640
Jacobs. 
But I think it might be all the 

1419
01:26:53,640 --> 01:26:57,960
time he spends with Hayden Winx 
as Josh Jacobs pilled him, so 

1420
01:26:57,960 --> 01:26:59,640
his judgement may be clouded 
here. 

1421
01:26:59,920 --> 01:27:03,640
I, I kind of think like that's 
maybe that's not enough of like,

1422
01:27:03,680 --> 01:27:05,280
oh, they're going to bench Josh 
Jacobs. 

1423
01:27:05,280 --> 01:27:06,080
I don't. 
No, no. 

1424
01:27:06,320 --> 01:27:09,240
That's not what you're saying. 
Like, hey, this, this is a 

1425
01:27:09,240 --> 01:27:12,680
committee and it might become 
close to 5050. 

1426
01:27:13,000 --> 01:27:14,480
That's that's all that I'm 
saying. 

1427
01:27:14,480 --> 01:27:16,000
I'm not. 
Saying Josh, I think that feels 

1428
01:27:16,000 --> 01:27:19,400
pretty reasonable. 
It's just, you know, that 

1429
01:27:19,400 --> 01:27:22,800
Lafleur wants that too. 
Like that's all this is the guy 

1430
01:27:22,800 --> 01:27:25,760
who like didn't play Derrick 
Henry when he had him. 

1431
01:27:26,040 --> 01:27:28,760
You know, he he was keeping 
Derrick Henry in like a true 

1432
01:27:28,760 --> 01:27:33,600
timeshare. 
So I just I think that it's not 

1433
01:27:33,600 --> 01:27:37,080
unreasonable to say that Jacobs 
doesn't look incredible. 

1434
01:27:37,640 --> 01:27:40,840
Wilson is at the very least 
comparable to him and like 

1435
01:27:40,960 --> 01:27:43,600
arguably looks better. 
But you know, could go either 

1436
01:27:43,600 --> 01:27:46,000
way. 
I just think we might see this 

1437
01:27:46,240 --> 01:27:48,840
usage for Jacobs start to 
trickle off a little bit. 

1438
01:27:49,040 --> 01:27:53,320
And I think the extremely high 
carry count from Week 2 was more

1439
01:27:53,320 --> 01:27:56,200
of just a side effect of like, 
oh God it's our first game 

1440
01:27:56,200 --> 01:27:59,320
without Jordan love like. 
I I mean, that's game plan 

1441
01:27:59,320 --> 01:28:00,760
stuff. 
Yeah, they built the plane 

1442
01:28:00,760 --> 01:28:03,760
around Josh Jacobs Week 2. 
And so that's that's. 

1443
01:28:03,760 --> 01:28:07,760
The one I, I, I, I bet a higher 
proportion of Josh Jacobs those 

1444
01:28:07,760 --> 01:28:11,960
carries came against the Colts, 
which is going to boost up stuff

1445
01:28:11,960 --> 01:28:14,480
like his rush hours over 
expected per attempt. 

1446
01:28:14,720 --> 01:28:18,560
Right yeah, so anyway, that was 
my Josh Jacobs hating. 

1447
01:28:19,160 --> 01:28:22,320
Needed to get that off my chest 
just so that in a couple weeks 

1448
01:28:22,320 --> 01:28:25,600
when it's aging well, I can 
victory lap and say that I told 

1449
01:28:25,600 --> 01:28:31,840
you so right like just. 
Tune into our one hour and 30 

1450
01:28:31,840 --> 01:28:34,240
minutes into stock chasing and 
it's right there. 

1451
01:28:34,520 --> 01:28:38,680
Yeah, clear as day. 
We'll we'll move on here because

1452
01:28:38,680 --> 01:28:41,360
we are we're we're kind of 
languishing on these charts. 

1453
01:28:41,360 --> 01:28:44,280
But let me hit you with a couple
quick questions for rest of 

1454
01:28:44,280 --> 01:28:46,480
season. 
Who would you rather have here? 

1455
01:28:47,400 --> 01:28:50,440
We'll just go with guys that are
very similar in their expected 

1456
01:28:50,440 --> 01:28:54,040
fantasy points on this chart. 
OK, Josh Jacobs or Brian 

1457
01:28:54,040 --> 01:28:58,000
Robinson. 
Brian Robinson, probably Josh 

1458
01:28:58,000 --> 01:29:03,640
Jacobs or James Cook are who? 
James Cook. 

1459
01:29:03,640 --> 01:29:04,600
James. 
Yeah. 

1460
01:29:04,800 --> 01:29:09,040
James Cook was 0. 
And probably James Cook. 

1461
01:29:09,440 --> 01:29:11,520
Probably James Cook. 
And then the other ones that are

1462
01:29:11,520 --> 01:29:15,000
here, like I'm I'm clearly Josh 
Jacobs over Naji Harris. 

1463
01:29:15,080 --> 01:29:17,840
I'm I'm clearly Bijon Robinson 
over Josh Jacobs. 

1464
01:29:19,000 --> 01:29:23,280
Let's just assume, pretend that 
we heard today that Kenneth 

1465
01:29:23,280 --> 01:29:27,920
Walker has fully recovered, but 
is the time to take some some 

1466
01:29:27,920 --> 01:29:31,640
time away to to spend time with 
his family for the rest of the 

1467
01:29:31,840 --> 01:29:34,320
season. 
He's moving to Hawaii. 

1468
01:29:34,440 --> 01:29:41,560
Yes. 
And that feels like Charbonnay 

1469
01:29:41,560 --> 01:29:44,880
as well. 
Like I, I, I, I, I feel very 

1470
01:29:44,880 --> 01:29:49,000
comfortable about those guys as 
their current workload, but I 

1471
01:29:49,000 --> 01:29:51,880
feel pretty uncomfortable with 
Josh Jacobs. 

1472
01:29:51,920 --> 01:29:55,200
Now have to caveat that we, we 
are haters. 

1473
01:29:55,360 --> 01:30:01,360
We're haters. 
And however, some some it's like

1474
01:30:02,040 --> 01:30:04,440
some of it seems bad, some of it
does seem bad. 

1475
01:30:05,160 --> 01:30:07,720
Yeah, All right. 
Let's let's move on to the tight

1476
01:30:07,720 --> 01:30:09,600
end chart. 
And and while we do that, we 

1477
01:30:09,600 --> 01:30:12,600
can, we can just caveat this. 
So we're just haters for his 

1478
01:30:12,600 --> 01:30:15,920
fantasy production in the silly 
imaginary made-up. 

1479
01:30:16,200 --> 01:30:18,480
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 
We hope he has a wonderful life.

1480
01:30:18,720 --> 01:30:21,960
Yeah, yeah, I'm. 
I would love it if Josh Jacobs 

1481
01:30:21,960 --> 01:30:25,080
performs really well, and he 
absolutely would stuff both of 

1482
01:30:25,080 --> 01:30:27,600
us into lockers like there's no,
there's no. 

1483
01:30:27,600 --> 01:30:29,360
Doubt. 
Yeah, he would beat us up for 

1484
01:30:29,360 --> 01:30:30,160
sure. 
Yeah. 

1485
01:30:31,280 --> 01:30:33,040
And he absolutely has that dog 
in him. 

1486
01:30:33,040 --> 01:30:36,680
So nothing negative to say about
Josh Jacobs, the person just for

1487
01:30:36,680 --> 01:30:45,960
fantasy football. 
Yeah, that's your cue to me to 

1488
01:30:45,960 --> 01:30:47,960
move on to the next chart, 
right? 

1489
01:30:48,240 --> 01:30:50,280
Yes. 
So we're on the tight end chart 

1490
01:30:50,280 --> 01:30:54,960
now. 
So as we as it's kind of 

1491
01:30:54,960 --> 01:30:58,680
interesting, this is not too far
off where we would have expected

1492
01:30:58,680 --> 01:31:03,200
Todd Conklin, where we would 
have expected K dot and this is 

1493
01:31:03,200 --> 01:31:06,080
pretty much straight down the 
fairway for how you would have 

1494
01:31:06,080 --> 01:31:11,360
projected them very high usage 
rates, but it not really 

1495
01:31:11,360 --> 01:31:16,080
monitoring for fantasy football.
Yeah, Conklin is 1 where like in

1496
01:31:16,080 --> 01:31:19,280
a managed league, if you're just
like trying, trying to throw 

1497
01:31:19,280 --> 01:31:22,280
someone out there that's not 
going to goose you, Conklin 

1498
01:31:22,280 --> 01:31:26,360
seems OK, granted, he he's still
going to goose you some weeks, 

1499
01:31:26,360 --> 01:31:30,640
but like goose you less than 
other guys just cuz he's out 

1500
01:31:30,640 --> 01:31:34,080
there so much. 
And The Jets are kind of devoid 

1501
01:31:34,120 --> 01:31:37,680
of, I mean, now I say Jets are 
devoid of target competition, 

1502
01:31:37,680 --> 01:31:41,320
but Tyler Conklin is still only 
earning 10% targets per route 

1503
01:31:41,320 --> 01:31:43,120
run. 
So it's not great. 

1504
01:31:43,880 --> 01:31:47,440
Yeah, but what? 
This is what you paid for. 

1505
01:31:47,640 --> 01:31:48,760
You're getting what you paid for
it. 

1506
01:31:49,520 --> 01:31:52,560
When you draft Tyler Conklin, 
you're drafting floor. 

1507
01:31:53,080 --> 01:31:56,200
You're getting floor. 
Now, Speaking of Floor, the 

1508
01:31:56,200 --> 01:31:58,080
other guy who's been kind of 
sneaky. 

1509
01:31:58,080 --> 01:32:02,320
Consistent, just like regular. 4
targets a week, you know, sign 

1510
01:32:02,320 --> 01:32:06,040
them up. 4 targets, 4 catches. 
Not going to goose you, Pat 

1511
01:32:06,040 --> 01:32:09,600
Fryermuth. 
Pretty sneaky, 18% targets for 

1512
01:32:09,600 --> 01:32:14,360
route we're on really low A dot.
You're, you're getting less, 

1513
01:32:14,560 --> 01:32:19,720
marginally less than you paid 
for, but more than than me and 

1514
01:32:19,720 --> 01:32:22,040
you would have projected at the 
start of the year, right? 

1515
01:32:22,560 --> 01:32:25,960
Yes, and and. 
You still overpaid, but not by 

1516
01:32:25,960 --> 01:32:28,720
as much as we talk. 
And in the in the current tight 

1517
01:32:28,720 --> 01:32:32,200
end landscape where like 
everyone going earlier is just 

1518
01:32:32,200 --> 01:32:37,000
failing, it kind of seems like 
even, you know, Pat Fryermuth 

1519
01:32:37,000 --> 01:32:39,520
might even be a win. 
Even though he's a loss, he 

1520
01:32:39,520 --> 01:32:43,040
could be a win because it it's 
one less spot on your roster 

1521
01:32:43,040 --> 01:32:44,920
that you spent on a different 
tight end. 

1522
01:32:44,960 --> 01:32:46,400
And there's so many that are 
bad. 

1523
01:32:48,840 --> 01:32:52,880
But the one of the lone bright 
spots, there's really only a 

1524
01:32:52,880 --> 01:32:55,840
couple bright spots, I would say
at tight end this season. 

1525
01:32:55,840 --> 01:32:58,800
And, and we talked about a 
couple of them last week with 

1526
01:32:59,280 --> 01:33:02,400
Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, 
both of whom still look like 

1527
01:33:02,400 --> 01:33:05,040
bright spots. 
The Brock Bowers, you know, bad 

1528
01:33:05,040 --> 01:33:06,840
game. 
I I'm not willing. 

1529
01:33:06,840 --> 01:33:09,800
To So Brock Bowers is still tied
in two on the year. 

1530
01:33:11,720 --> 01:33:14,120
Yeah, and it's only Dallas 
Goddard who's ahead of him. 

1531
01:33:15,440 --> 01:33:17,600
Yeah, Goddard. 
Goddard showing that when the 

1532
01:33:17,600 --> 01:33:20,520
Eagles have no other weapons and
they're forced to rely on Dallas

1533
01:33:20,520 --> 01:33:22,720
Goddard, he can have a monster 
game. 

1534
01:33:23,040 --> 01:33:26,120
He's definitely he can deliver. 
He's interesting for these next 

1535
01:33:26,120 --> 01:33:28,440
couple weeks while you're 
missing Devonta and A.J. 

1536
01:33:28,440 --> 01:33:31,520
Brown. 
Although it might just be one of

1537
01:33:31,520 --> 01:33:36,520
those situations where it's when
a when a defense knows going 

1538
01:33:36,520 --> 01:33:39,200
into the game, all we have to do
is take away Saquon and Dallas 

1539
01:33:39,200 --> 01:33:43,040
Goddard and then they're forced 
to throw to, I mean, not even 

1540
01:33:43,040 --> 01:33:44,840
Britton Covey. 
Britton Covey's injured too. 

1541
01:33:44,840 --> 01:33:48,840
I don't know if you saw that. 
So like you're doing what like 

1542
01:33:48,840 --> 01:33:53,680
Johan Dodson, so. 
It seems, yeah, it's still 

1543
01:33:53,680 --> 01:33:59,040
unclear and what AJ Brown's 
timeline is, so maybe he's back.

1544
01:33:59,760 --> 01:34:03,920
The speculation I've heard is 
that it's likely that these 

1545
01:34:03,920 --> 01:34:07,800
injuries right now, the Brown 
and the Devonta one, are gonna 

1546
01:34:07,800 --> 01:34:09,960
be something that they just try 
to push through the buy because 

1547
01:34:09,960 --> 01:34:11,960
they have a Week 5 buy and it's 
OK. 

1548
01:34:12,480 --> 01:34:15,320
Hey, let's not. 
Let's not go out right, right. 

1549
01:34:15,600 --> 01:34:17,040
Thing. 
We we, we give up. 

1550
01:34:17,040 --> 01:34:21,160
We, we no, not not necessarily 
sacrifice this game, but you 

1551
01:34:21,160 --> 01:34:23,360
guys rest. 
We got a 2 for one basically. 

1552
01:34:23,520 --> 01:34:26,520
Yeah, yeah. 
The the bright spot I wanted to 

1553
01:34:26,520 --> 01:34:28,960
highlight though, other than the
guys that we talked about last 

1554
01:34:28,960 --> 01:34:32,240
week is Jake Ferguson. 
And you alluded to this earlier,

1555
01:34:32,240 --> 01:34:36,040
Draco, where you said, you know,
the Cowboys have this offense 

1556
01:34:36,280 --> 01:34:38,920
just bereft of talent outside of
CD Lamb. 

1557
01:34:39,600 --> 01:34:44,480
And so, you know, the the next 
most talented guy here of Jake 

1558
01:34:44,480 --> 01:34:50,120
Ferguson is getting an elite 26%
targets for route run really 

1559
01:34:50,120 --> 01:34:55,960
strong, 9.7 A dot. 
And I mean, God, it's, it's so 

1560
01:34:55,960 --> 01:35:00,160
frustrating to me because I was 
so, so strong on Ferguson early 

1561
01:35:00,200 --> 01:35:03,520
and then all the slappies were 
on Ferguson and I let myself get

1562
01:35:03,520 --> 01:35:07,160
talked out of it by people who 
said, oh, he's not, he's not 

1563
01:35:07,160 --> 01:35:09,120
that talented. 
He wasn't even a target earner 

1564
01:35:09,120 --> 01:35:13,880
last year with no competition. 
And yeah, I just, I let myself 

1565
01:35:13,880 --> 01:35:17,840
get talked out of it when I 
thought he was set up for a 

1566
01:35:17,840 --> 01:35:20,440
really strong season again. 
So just kicking myself a little 

1567
01:35:20,440 --> 01:35:22,760
bit there. 
It's gonna, we're looking at 

1568
01:35:23,040 --> 01:35:26,320
absolutely gross, gross volume 
here though, right? 

1569
01:35:26,640 --> 01:35:31,440
Yeah, where it's like it's a bad
team who their defense is bad, 

1570
01:35:31,440 --> 01:35:33,400
so or their defense has been 
bad. 

1571
01:35:33,400 --> 01:35:35,720
So they've had they've had to 
because these these are kind of 

1572
01:35:35,720 --> 01:35:38,480
like descriptive, they've had to
throw a lot. 

1573
01:35:39,040 --> 01:35:45,800
And then that and him being the 
number 2 in an offense, 

1574
01:35:45,800 --> 01:35:48,760
Barabbetel has meant that he's 
been a big beneficiary. 

1575
01:35:50,000 --> 01:35:55,160
Yeah, I mean, and really what 
you're, you know, to think 

1576
01:35:55,160 --> 01:35:58,480
through like what's the 
fragility like here for Jake 

1577
01:35:58,480 --> 01:36:02,760
Ferguson rest of season, the way
that that this goes away for you

1578
01:36:02,840 --> 01:36:07,080
that he's not the smash of all 
smashes this year is the Cowboys

1579
01:36:07,080 --> 01:36:11,200
defense gets a lot better or 
some other weapon emerges on 

1580
01:36:11,200 --> 01:36:15,200
offense that's like able to out 
earn him for targets. 

1581
01:36:15,880 --> 01:36:17,440
But I mean the volume has been 
so high. 

1582
01:36:17,560 --> 01:36:21,080
Or the defense keys in on him 
and he's not talent enough to to

1583
01:36:21,120 --> 01:36:26,240
like overcome that attention. 
Yeah, I mean, I guess, I guess 

1584
01:36:26,240 --> 01:36:30,560
then you're because what they're
they're just dedicating 2 guys 

1585
01:36:30,560 --> 01:36:34,360
to CD and two guys to Ferguson 
every play like you'd hope, 

1586
01:36:34,400 --> 01:36:37,240
you'd hope the Cowboys offense 
is able to get something going 

1587
01:36:37,240 --> 01:36:40,000
there with, you know, you're 
getting multiple, you're getting

1588
01:36:40,000 --> 01:36:42,680
Brandon Cook single coverage and
Jalen Tolbert single coverage. 

1589
01:36:42,680 --> 01:36:47,520
Like they can't be that. 
Well, I don't want to say that. 

1590
01:36:47,760 --> 01:36:51,240
I was going to say they can't be
that bad, but I think they can. 

1591
01:36:52,840 --> 01:37:00,320
Yeah, yeah, it's interesting. 
In NFL seasons, they do evolve, 

1592
01:37:00,960 --> 01:37:05,000
yeah, but it looks very strong 
for Jake Ferguson right now. 

1593
01:37:06,640 --> 01:37:09,920
Let's quick, quick run through. 
We talked about a bunch of these

1594
01:37:09,920 --> 01:37:14,280
guys the last two weeks, but the
theme is continuing guys that we

1595
01:37:14,280 --> 01:37:16,120
are still very worried about 
here. 

1596
01:37:17,640 --> 01:37:19,800
I just want your opinion on it 
here. 

1597
01:37:19,960 --> 01:37:21,520
I'm just going to hit you with a
couple of them. 

1598
01:37:21,880 --> 01:37:26,120
Sample portal. 
Well, I, yeah, I'm still not 

1599
01:37:26,120 --> 01:37:29,680
worried about him. 
And he's injured, so he's not 

1600
01:37:29,680 --> 01:37:35,280
going to play, but I still think
like he's important enough and 

1601
01:37:35,280 --> 01:37:38,200
that they, they need touchdowns 
and he's somebody who can get 

1602
01:37:38,200 --> 01:37:42,040
that for them. 
I still think that there'll be 

1603
01:37:42,280 --> 01:37:45,480
long stretches where he's a, 
he's a big scorer. 

1604
01:37:46,520 --> 01:37:49,320
I'm still holding that hope. 
Mark Andrews. 

1605
01:37:50,200 --> 01:37:54,480
Oh my God, it's it that that the
the thesis is just dead. 

1606
01:37:54,760 --> 01:37:58,760
It's absolutely dead. 
Like I know they there's a cope 

1607
01:37:59,000 --> 01:38:02,560
of like, well, they didn't 
feature much in their game plan 

1608
01:38:02,560 --> 01:38:05,880
because this is a run heavy week
and they didn't want to use them

1609
01:38:05,880 --> 01:38:08,400
like that. 
That is just not what you 

1610
01:38:08,400 --> 01:38:11,320
thought you were drafting. 
Like we we understood we 

1611
01:38:11,360 --> 01:38:14,680
understood that the Ravens would
have these run heavy games like 

1612
01:38:14,680 --> 01:38:16,240
that. 
I think that that's kind of 

1613
01:38:16,240 --> 01:38:19,240
understood. 
But the idea that was like, Oh, 

1614
01:38:19,240 --> 01:38:23,800
well, you know what, Marc 
Andrews, you're good this week. 

1615
01:38:24,320 --> 01:38:29,200
Like, we don't need you. 
Like in my head, America Andrews

1616
01:38:29,200 --> 01:38:33,160
was like one of the the best 
players in the NFL and like 

1617
01:38:33,160 --> 01:38:34,920
absolutely essential to his 
team. 

1618
01:38:35,320 --> 01:38:37,200
And that is just so far from the
truth. 

1619
01:38:38,480 --> 01:38:42,240
Yeah, I'm, I'm wondering, I 
mean, we've seen this now with 

1620
01:38:42,240 --> 01:38:46,160
two guys, so sample size of two,
but Tony Pollard and Mark 

1621
01:38:46,160 --> 01:38:49,480
Andrews both the year right 
after tightrope surgery 

1622
01:38:50,480 --> 01:38:53,840
seemingly becoming just like a 
shell of themselves. 

1623
01:38:53,880 --> 01:38:56,200
I'm wondering if the tightrope 
surgery thing. 

1624
01:38:56,480 --> 01:39:00,680
So some of the some of the 
injury guys, they've been 

1625
01:39:00,680 --> 01:39:05,080
talking about it and they've 
said that over all over the 

1626
01:39:05,080 --> 01:39:11,040
larger sample size of the data 
that it's not really a thing. 

1627
01:39:11,160 --> 01:39:14,680
Just for example, Brock Barrows,
he had tightrope surgery and he 

1628
01:39:14,680 --> 01:39:20,160
looks fantastic. 
And yeah, I guess maybe it's a 

1629
01:39:20,160 --> 01:39:24,000
risk factor. 
It's where like either it's like

1630
01:39:24,000 --> 01:39:30,280
this binary 95% completely the 
same 5% were season of their 

1631
01:39:30,280 --> 01:39:36,000
lives. 
Yeah, so the anyway, the Andrews

1632
01:39:36,000 --> 01:39:40,120
stuff looks really bad. 
I mean, I'd like to. 

1633
01:39:40,280 --> 01:39:42,240
Hold out, somebody said, 
Somebody noted. 

1634
01:39:42,240 --> 01:39:43,560
And I'm sure other people would 
think this. 

1635
01:39:43,640 --> 01:39:45,240
I thought of myself as I was 
saying it. 

1636
01:39:45,720 --> 01:39:51,320
Brock is younger, understood 
Mark Andrews, he is only 28. 

1637
01:39:51,640 --> 01:39:56,200
But the the PT guys who look at 
this data, they've said over 

1638
01:39:56,200 --> 01:40:01,360
over all over large sample size 
and it's it's usually not an 

1639
01:40:01,360 --> 01:40:03,320
issue. 
Brock Barrows was just like an 

1640
01:40:03,320 --> 01:40:06,000
example. 
I don't have any other off the 

1641
01:40:06,000 --> 01:40:07,400
top of my head unfortunately, 
but. 

1642
01:40:09,840 --> 01:40:14,520
I do think it's important that 
the overall sample says it's 

1643
01:40:14,520 --> 01:40:18,760
usually not a problem, but these
are some high profile and big 

1644
01:40:20,160 --> 01:40:23,920
stinkers that we should think 
about going forward. 

1645
01:40:24,320 --> 01:40:27,000
Yeah, so here's the next one, 
Travis Kelce. 

1646
01:40:29,760 --> 01:40:31,800
Yeah, you, you, you have to be 
worried. 

1647
01:40:31,800 --> 01:40:34,840
He's another guy where he's, 
he's just clearly no longer 

1648
01:40:34,920 --> 01:40:37,960
essential. 
Yeah, he's just not really 

1649
01:40:37,960 --> 01:40:39,520
essential to his team anymore, 
is he? 

1650
01:40:40,480 --> 01:40:44,160
I, I kind of think that maybe 
what we saw last year with now 

1651
01:40:44,320 --> 01:40:46,800
I, I think a big part of the way
last year he. 

1652
01:40:46,800 --> 01:40:48,840
Ran out though. 
Right. 

1653
01:40:49,080 --> 01:40:52,000
I'm saying last year was the 
injury, but I think it all might

1654
01:40:52,000 --> 01:40:54,480
have been. 
Maybe he was, you know, 

1655
01:40:54,480 --> 01:40:57,760
healthier towards the end of the
season and then what we saw in 

1656
01:40:57,760 --> 01:41:00,720
the playoffs. 
It might have just been like the

1657
01:41:00,720 --> 01:41:04,680
one last hurrah for a guy who's,
you know, he's physically past 

1658
01:41:04,680 --> 01:41:08,080
his prime, but he could he can 
get up and give it his all, you 

1659
01:41:08,080 --> 01:41:09,920
know, for just a couple short 
weeks. 

1660
01:41:09,920 --> 01:41:12,200
He can really lay it all on the 
line. 

1661
01:41:12,880 --> 01:41:17,040
And it's it's frustrating 
because that's the the thesis 

1662
01:41:17,040 --> 01:41:19,840
that we heard all offseason for 
people for why they're fading 

1663
01:41:19,840 --> 01:41:23,040
Travis Kelce of oh, they're 
going to arrest him and and he's

1664
01:41:23,040 --> 01:41:26,160
not going to be used as much 
until the playoff when the 

1665
01:41:26,160 --> 01:41:29,280
game's. 
Really, he's got an 85% route 

1666
01:41:29,280 --> 01:41:33,960
rate, so they're they're playing
this guy like he's playing, but 

1667
01:41:33,960 --> 01:41:37,000
when he's out there he's not 
earning targets at the same rate

1668
01:41:37,000 --> 01:41:39,280
he used to. 
Yeah, I mean it. 

1669
01:41:39,400 --> 01:41:41,600
It might just be the ascension 
of Rashi Rice. 

1670
01:41:41,600 --> 01:41:45,400
Like maybe Kelsey is fine. 
It's just that Rashi is is just 

1671
01:41:45,400 --> 01:41:49,320
that much better. 
Like if you know, I mean think, 

1672
01:41:49,360 --> 01:41:51,320
think. 
They, they need guys too, like 

1673
01:41:51,320 --> 01:41:55,520
they, they like they're kind of 
limited outside of Rashi's, so 

1674
01:41:55,520 --> 01:41:59,880
they, they do need somebody else
like I, I, I'm just like I'm 

1675
01:41:59,880 --> 01:42:01,640
having, I'm having a really 
tough time. 

1676
01:42:01,960 --> 01:42:05,920
I I posted something in the in 
the discord that his his ass 

1677
01:42:05,920 --> 01:42:09,200
stats which is something to do 
with separation were really 

1678
01:42:09,200 --> 01:42:11,240
strong but then I said I 
followed up. 

1679
01:42:11,960 --> 01:42:15,040
I just, I just want an excuse to
reference his ass. 

1680
01:42:18,640 --> 01:42:22,160
OK, next next guy we're worried 
about still, Kyle Pitts. 

1681
01:42:23,480 --> 01:42:28,240
And Kyle Pitts, yeah, I, I think
we're, we're definitely still 

1682
01:42:28,240 --> 01:42:33,320
worried about Kyle Pitts. 
And so I, I, I remember, I think

1683
01:42:33,320 --> 01:42:36,400
it was Sam who kind of noted 
that on the 1st Dr. he was, he 

1684
01:42:36,400 --> 01:42:41,200
didn't play a lot of snaps. 
So last week he was on an 81% 

1685
01:42:41,200 --> 01:42:43,680
route share. 
He's on an 84% route share for 

1686
01:42:43,680 --> 01:42:46,160
the season. 
That's still, that's still top 

1687
01:42:46,160 --> 01:42:51,600
five for tight ends. 
But the the target and then the 

1688
01:42:51,600 --> 01:42:56,320
cop actually some of this last. 
So last week he had a 20% target

1689
01:42:56,320 --> 01:43:05,400
threat run and then A17A dot and
then it's 14% over over the the 

1690
01:43:05,400 --> 01:43:09,480
14% tiger spread run over the 
full season and then 11A dot. 

1691
01:43:12,720 --> 01:43:14,440
That's a little more 
encouraging, right? 

1692
01:43:14,640 --> 01:43:18,280
As as as. 
I mean, yeah. 

1693
01:43:18,400 --> 01:43:21,080
Cousins can kind of pick this 
back if the last game for them 

1694
01:43:21,080 --> 01:43:24,440
is any indication that that 
feels better, that feels better 

1695
01:43:24,440 --> 01:43:26,960
than the vibes indicate. 
Yeah. 

1696
01:43:26,960 --> 01:43:29,800
I mean, the problem for me is 
that when you look at the target

1697
01:43:29,800 --> 01:43:33,480
competition around him, it's 
like it's pretty concerning that

1698
01:43:33,480 --> 01:43:37,840
Ray Ray McLeod and Darnell 
Mooney, like if it was like are.

1699
01:43:37,840 --> 01:43:39,800
Important elements of the 
offense, right? 

1700
01:43:40,000 --> 01:43:41,480
When? 
We thought they were average 

1701
01:43:41,480 --> 01:43:43,600
guys A. 
Lot of his production came on 

1702
01:43:43,600 --> 01:43:47,520
that one long pass. 
So, and, and I mean, that's to 

1703
01:43:47,600 --> 01:43:50,160
transition that into the next 
guy of Dalton Kincaid. 

1704
01:43:50,560 --> 01:43:53,360
Same thing for Kincaid. 
Like Kincaid and Pitts basically

1705
01:43:53,360 --> 01:43:56,120
had the same week. 
They had one big play and then 

1706
01:43:56,120 --> 01:44:00,800
the rest of it was shit. 
And so it's like, man, really 

1707
01:44:00,800 --> 01:44:04,200
the the thing that you're hoping
for with these elite tight ends,

1708
01:44:04,200 --> 01:44:08,200
what these guys can do that the 
rest of the position can't do is

1709
01:44:08,200 --> 01:44:11,960
that in general, historically 
they were able to earn this 

1710
01:44:11,960 --> 01:44:17,120
volume where they'd have this 
like decent production that 

1711
01:44:17,280 --> 01:44:20,280
might not have been special on, 
you know, a game to game basis. 

1712
01:44:20,600 --> 01:44:24,200
But in any single game, they had
this great volume. 

1713
01:44:24,440 --> 01:44:27,520
And then also you could you 
could tack on these big plays 

1714
01:44:27,520 --> 01:44:29,320
like Kyle Pitts and Dalton 
Kincaid had. 

1715
01:44:29,960 --> 01:44:32,760
But for these guys, we're 
getting like not a lot of 

1716
01:44:32,760 --> 01:44:34,320
volume. 
Not right. 

1717
01:44:34,640 --> 01:44:37,640
I mean Kincaid. 
Versus the price you paid right 

1718
01:44:37,640 --> 01:44:44,720
is it's, it's concerning, but I,
I think the the vibes are closer

1719
01:44:44,720 --> 01:44:47,680
to if you've got this guy in 
tight end premium, you can't 

1720
01:44:47,680 --> 01:44:50,280
even start him. 
No, and that's, that's not the 

1721
01:44:50,280 --> 01:44:52,440
case. 
Like Dalton Kincaid, I, I came 

1722
01:44:52,440 --> 01:44:56,840
away this week feeling a little 
more bullish on him, you know, 

1723
01:44:56,840 --> 01:44:59,840
not not just because of the the 
long play, but because it looked

1724
01:44:59,840 --> 01:45:02,760
like what they were trying to do
in Week 2 before it kind of got 

1725
01:45:02,760 --> 01:45:05,080
derailed with him getting, you 
know, checked out for concussion

1726
01:45:05,080 --> 01:45:08,920
protocol. 
It seems it seems like that is 

1727
01:45:08,920 --> 01:45:10,800
more along the lines of what 
they want to do. 

1728
01:45:11,120 --> 01:45:14,720
The problem again is this is 
just an offense that is is not 

1729
01:45:14,720 --> 01:45:16,320
going to have a super high pass 
rate. 

1730
01:45:16,400 --> 01:45:19,720
They'd rather run the ball. 
You know, Josh Allen is going to

1731
01:45:19,720 --> 01:45:21,480
eat up a bunch of the touchdown 
equity. 

1732
01:45:21,840 --> 01:45:23,840
So. 
Some of the, some, some of the, 

1733
01:45:23,840 --> 01:45:26,720
the statistics, I'm, I'm sorry 
to disagree again, some of the 

1734
01:45:26,720 --> 01:45:30,160
statistics for Dalton Kincaid 
here are kind of interesting. 

1735
01:45:30,480 --> 01:45:35,800
So Dalton Kincaid last week or 
last night had a 29% tires for a

1736
01:45:35,800 --> 01:45:40,520
run 12A dot. 
His issue last week was that he 

1737
01:45:40,520 --> 01:45:47,880
had just a 49% route share and 
then coming off like, so no 

1738
01:45:47,880 --> 01:45:50,400
injury. 
Actually, I was still thinking 

1739
01:45:50,400 --> 01:45:53,920
about the concussion and maybe 
that factored, but do you think 

1740
01:45:53,920 --> 01:45:57,480
maybe the low route share was 
just because they wanted this 

1741
01:45:57,480 --> 01:46:03,720
big huge route? 
Or is that maybe like because I 

1742
01:46:03,720 --> 01:46:08,920
guess we're just, I'm just 
looking at a single game split 

1743
01:46:08,920 --> 01:46:11,280
here. 
And then his route share for the

1744
01:46:11,280 --> 01:46:14,640
season is just 67%. 
And, and, and we definitely, I 

1745
01:46:14,640 --> 01:46:22,120
think we expect that to be 
higher and targets Brett run 18%

1746
01:46:23,280 --> 01:46:28,840
that that feels like, I guess 
it's not, it's not, it's not 

1747
01:46:28,840 --> 01:46:32,720
spectacular. 
But I, I wouldn't be surprised 

1748
01:46:32,720 --> 01:46:36,680
if he if he finished the year 
somewhere between 20 and 25% on 

1749
01:46:36,680 --> 01:46:42,200
target for a run and then 80 to 
85% on that right percentage. 

1750
01:46:43,440 --> 01:46:46,840
Yeah, I, I mean, that was why I 
was saying I came away more 

1751
01:46:46,840 --> 01:46:51,040
encouraged from this last game. 
Yeah, but I, I. 

1752
01:46:51,240 --> 01:46:54,360
Sorry, I interrupted you and 
then said I was disagreeing with

1753
01:46:54,360 --> 01:46:55,520
you. 
And actually it sounds like we 

1754
01:46:55,520 --> 01:46:57,920
actually completely disagree. 
So I I I apologize for my 

1755
01:46:57,920 --> 01:46:59,600
interruption. 
No, no, that's OK. 

1756
01:46:59,600 --> 01:47:02,120
Yeah, I, I came away feeling 
better about Kincaid. 

1757
01:47:02,320 --> 01:47:06,720
I, I definitely think that, I 
mean, like many of the elite 

1758
01:47:06,720 --> 01:47:10,960
tight ends, you it's a loss at 
cost like it's, it's a negative 

1759
01:47:10,960 --> 01:47:16,800
advance rate player, but I, I 
don't think he's, he's not dead 

1760
01:47:16,800 --> 01:47:18,800
and buried like Mark Andrews 
feels. 

1761
01:47:18,880 --> 01:47:20,840
You know, I, I think the other 
problem with Dalton. 

1762
01:47:20,960 --> 01:47:24,440
No, no, no. 
Is Khalil Shakur's the better 

1763
01:47:24,480 --> 01:47:28,200
receiver on the team? 
Like pretty clearly to me, I, I 

1764
01:47:28,200 --> 01:47:30,880
don't, I just don't think that 
we're getting the the true 

1765
01:47:30,880 --> 01:47:33,280
ceiling outcome for Dalton 
Kincaid of like the special 

1766
01:47:33,280 --> 01:47:36,560
talent will be the number one 
passing option on the team. 

1767
01:47:37,240 --> 01:47:40,280
That is just they they they need
the offense needs to work 

1768
01:47:40,280 --> 01:47:43,360
through Don Kincaid Yeah, that 
is not being. 

1769
01:47:43,360 --> 01:47:46,800
True is dead and gone just like 
the Mark Andrews thesis is dead 

1770
01:47:46,800 --> 01:47:48,280
and gone. 
The unfortunate part with Mark 

1771
01:47:48,280 --> 01:47:51,480
Andrews is like he seems like he
might be entirely unusable. 

1772
01:47:51,760 --> 01:47:55,240
Don Kincaid seems like he will 
still be usable, he just seems 

1773
01:47:55,240 --> 01:47:57,080
like not worth what you paid for
him. 

1774
01:47:57,920 --> 01:48:00,560
Basically the answer to tight 
end this season just seems like 

1775
01:48:01,000 --> 01:48:05,800
Trey McBride, George Kittle, 
Jake Ferguson, Brock Bowers or 

1776
01:48:05,800 --> 01:48:08,600
just like don't take any tight 
end and like just take whoever 

1777
01:48:08,600 --> 01:48:12,440
you got forced to auto draft in 
round 18 when the the platform 

1778
01:48:12,440 --> 01:48:15,040
realized you had no tight end so
you just skip the position 

1779
01:48:15,040 --> 01:48:17,400
entirely because it's been 
atrocious. 

1780
01:48:18,480 --> 01:48:19,520
It's been rough. 
All right. 

1781
01:48:20,040 --> 01:48:23,440
It has been rough. 
And then Speaking of it being a 

1782
01:48:23,440 --> 01:48:29,120
little bit rough, so after we in
our kind of circle kind of 

1783
01:48:29,240 --> 01:48:34,040
crowned Brock Bowers as the as 
the, as the tight end one last 

1784
01:48:34,040 --> 01:48:38,920
week, he had just 56% route 
share and then 16% target threat

1785
01:48:38,920 --> 01:48:45,560
run 5 1/2 percent A dot. 
Now, I I think that that is like

1786
01:48:46,040 --> 01:48:47,600
an indictment of the coaching 
staff. 

1787
01:48:47,760 --> 01:48:51,760
They fucked up and they need to 
fix that, not for me, but for 

1788
01:48:51,760 --> 01:48:55,520
them. 
But it does kind of underline 

1789
01:48:55,520 --> 01:48:58,640
some of the risks here with 
bears after like a pretty 

1790
01:48:58,640 --> 01:49:03,160
phenomenal week. 
Yeah, it might just be a throw 

1791
01:49:03,160 --> 01:49:06,560
the game in the trash game for 
the Raiders because it was 

1792
01:49:06,560 --> 01:49:09,520
really bad all the way around. 
I mean, they're talking about 

1793
01:49:09,520 --> 01:49:11,400
quarterback changes already, 
right? 

1794
01:49:11,400 --> 01:49:12,200
So. 
Right. 

1795
01:49:12,560 --> 01:49:15,920
It might just be a throw out the
box score kind of game, but I 

1796
01:49:15,920 --> 01:49:18,240
agree with you. 
It definitely it's highlighting 

1797
01:49:18,240 --> 01:49:21,360
the concerns that we had pre 
draft about Brock Bowers of 

1798
01:49:21,360 --> 01:49:25,160
well, maybe because they have 
mayor, they don't use them as 

1799
01:49:25,160 --> 01:49:27,160
much as we hope that they do. 
You mean post draft? 

1800
01:49:27,160 --> 01:49:30,200
Post draft. 
Excuse me, yeah, post post NFL 

1801
01:49:30,200 --> 01:49:36,040
draft, but anyway, I'm not. 
And then like, I guess on a down

1802
01:49:36,040 --> 01:49:42,360
game for him, he had 8.6 
percent, 8.6 points on FFBC and 

1803
01:49:42,360 --> 01:49:48,480
7.1 in PPOR for tight ends, 
given that he was like the 

1804
01:49:49,680 --> 01:49:52,640
pretty pretty affordable. 
That's like that. 

1805
01:49:52,640 --> 01:49:54,800
That's not a that's not a 
crusher by any means. 

1806
01:49:54,800 --> 01:49:58,920
So if this is a down game for 
Bowers, like you're feeling 

1807
01:49:58,920 --> 01:50:03,000
pretty good about an 8.6 floor 
in tight end premium. 

1808
01:50:04,440 --> 01:50:09,320
Yeah, the the next guys I wanted
to talk about are on the next 

1809
01:50:09,320 --> 01:50:11,240
chart if we want to go to that 
one. 

1810
01:50:12,200 --> 01:50:15,360
Cole Commit finally found his 
way out of the field. 

1811
01:50:15,720 --> 01:50:19,760
Shane Waldron realized that it 
was a little bit silly to use 

1812
01:50:19,760 --> 01:50:22,720
Gerald Everett over him. 
And Kolkamet looked great. 

1813
01:50:22,920 --> 01:50:25,800
Looked like the reason why I was
He was one of my most drafted 

1814
01:50:25,800 --> 01:50:30,320
tight ends before so. 
Back up the 73% route share last

1815
01:50:30,320 --> 01:50:35,160
week and then a 27% target 
spread run and and and they 

1816
01:50:35,160 --> 01:50:38,240
needed them. 
So, so like that, that, that was

1817
01:50:38,240 --> 01:50:41,280
pretty big and pretty 
encouraging to see that kind of 

1818
01:50:41,280 --> 01:50:45,360
usage Now I think dude, I guess 
the question is, do we think 

1819
01:50:45,360 --> 01:50:49,560
that that's should be the 
projected route share from like 

1820
01:50:49,560 --> 01:50:52,760
week 4:00 on? 
I think it's going to. 

1821
01:50:52,840 --> 01:50:56,440
I think as far as the tight end 
splits are concerned, like 

1822
01:50:56,760 --> 01:51:00,760
Commet relative to Everett, I'm 
hoping that they learned their 

1823
01:51:00,760 --> 01:51:02,560
lesson there. 
And right, right. 

1824
01:51:03,000 --> 01:51:06,680
We get it, this is the better 
player, but what I'm worried 

1825
01:51:06,680 --> 01:51:09,520
about is that the targets might 
not be there when Keenan Allen 

1826
01:51:09,520 --> 01:51:11,480
comes back. 
Right, They won't be. 

1827
01:51:11,520 --> 01:51:16,680
They won't, there's no way and 
the drop backs probably won't be

1828
01:51:16,720 --> 01:51:19,720
there as well. 
So this is probably like pretty 

1829
01:51:19,720 --> 01:51:22,760
close to a true ceiling game for
commit. 

1830
01:51:23,360 --> 01:51:28,320
And but we were hope like the 
price that we were paying was 

1831
01:51:28,320 --> 01:51:31,440
kind of like factoring in some 
good games with the hopes that 

1832
01:51:31,440 --> 01:51:32,920
we would get these kind of 
ceiling games. 

1833
01:51:32,920 --> 01:51:37,600
So we're pretty pleased that 
this is firmly in his range of 

1834
01:51:37,600 --> 01:51:40,440
outcomes now. 
Yeah, I mean, my biggest take 

1835
01:51:40,440 --> 01:51:43,520
away here is probably not even 
anything that's going to be that

1836
01:51:44,000 --> 01:51:48,200
fantasy relevant this season 
unless we get like if you're 

1837
01:51:48,200 --> 01:51:50,600
playing single week stuff, 
you're playing DFS or like 

1838
01:51:50,600 --> 01:51:55,560
underdog battle royales. 
And there are more situations 

1839
01:51:55,560 --> 01:51:59,600
where the Bears are in a script 
where they're going to get to 

1840
01:51:59,600 --> 01:52:03,440
run a lot of plays and have to 
pass a lot and they're missing a

1841
01:52:03,440 --> 01:52:06,760
weapon, like missing a DJ Moore 
or a Keenan Allen, someone who's

1842
01:52:06,760 --> 01:52:09,600
going to command a lot of 
targets where Cole Comet could 

1843
01:52:09,600 --> 01:52:13,200
step in to fill the void. 
That feels really valuable to me

1844
01:52:13,200 --> 01:52:15,480
potentially as like a good spot 
where where? 

1845
01:52:15,480 --> 01:52:16,680
Maybe. 
Captain Cole. 

1846
01:52:16,680 --> 01:52:18,520
Comet, Yes. 
And Cole? 

1847
01:52:19,920 --> 01:52:23,920
And then the other thing is that
like in, you know, the future, 

1848
01:52:23,960 --> 01:52:28,200
in, you know, next year's drafts
down the road, Kokomat seems 

1849
01:52:28,200 --> 01:52:32,120
like a a sneaky like could be 
one of these guys that we see 

1850
01:52:32,120 --> 01:52:35,480
emerge later in his career is 
like a, Oh yeah, this is an 

1851
01:52:35,480 --> 01:52:39,280
elite tight end now he. 
Feels, he feels a little bit 

1852
01:52:39,360 --> 01:52:42,760
similar to a Devon singletary to
me. 

1853
01:52:43,280 --> 01:52:47,680
And it goes into the year and 
they're like, oh, we want to use

1854
01:52:47,680 --> 01:52:50,680
all these guys. 
And then as the year goes on, 

1855
01:52:50,720 --> 01:52:53,960
it's like, no, this is the best 
one we have to play on. 

1856
01:52:54,800 --> 01:52:58,280
Yeah, so I'm I'm hopeful that 
maybe next year is the year of 

1857
01:52:58,280 --> 01:53:02,280
the elite Colcumet tight end 
season seems hard this year 

1858
01:53:02,280 --> 01:53:06,440
without an injury to someone, 
but at least at least. 

1859
01:53:06,760 --> 01:53:10,920
We have they signed into a long 
contract and we're and as Caleb 

1860
01:53:10,920 --> 01:53:14,080
William develops, hopefully we 
get a new coaching staff that 

1861
01:53:14,080 --> 01:53:16,840
could be really encouraging. 
So it's actually a dynasty. 

1862
01:53:16,840 --> 01:53:21,480
Take trade for risk if if you're
if you're somehow a dynasty guy 

1863
01:53:21,480 --> 01:53:24,880
and listening to this podcast 
and trade for a Co command. 

1864
01:53:25,480 --> 01:53:28,960
Yeah, OK, let's let's get 
through this chart real quick. 

1865
01:53:28,960 --> 01:53:31,840
I just had two more notes. 
Are we done with the Isaiah 

1866
01:53:31,840 --> 01:53:37,160
Likely experiment? 
Yeah, yeah, I I mean, you're, 

1867
01:53:37,160 --> 01:53:41,040
you're still you're still very 
happy if you drafted them, but 

1868
01:53:41,400 --> 01:53:45,600
you're very displeased if you 
bought them on the post Thursday

1869
01:53:45,600 --> 01:53:51,040
night and main event price when 
when people are doing the two 

1870
01:53:51,040 --> 01:53:54,280
tree turn that that was bad. 
That was bad. 

1871
01:53:54,520 --> 01:53:57,760
How could we have foreseen that 
that was man who drafted Mark 

1872
01:53:57,760 --> 01:54:00,960
Andrews, one of his most drafted
tight ends says makes fun of 

1873
01:54:00,960 --> 01:54:03,960
people paying up for Isaiah 
likely it's a little little 

1874
01:54:03,960 --> 01:54:07,600
ironic here, but talking about 
myself. 

1875
01:54:08,800 --> 01:54:11,960
OK, last note on this chart, 
actually, I fuck there's, 

1876
01:54:11,960 --> 01:54:18,320
there's 2 Joan Johnson alleged 
or apparently being eased back 

1877
01:54:18,320 --> 01:54:21,000
in. 
They they mentioned that he's 

1878
01:54:21,000 --> 01:54:23,640
kind of on a snap count as he 
works back from the foot injury.

1879
01:54:23,920 --> 01:54:27,240
So maybe we can leave a light on
there for Jawan Johnson, who I, 

1880
01:54:27,400 --> 01:54:31,000
you know, was a late round tight
end darling for for many in our 

1881
01:54:31,080 --> 01:54:35,440
our circle. 
No, no other real comment there.

1882
01:54:35,440 --> 01:54:37,080
Just wanted to mention that I 
see that. 

1883
01:54:37,120 --> 01:54:41,200
I do, I do. 
Dwayne McFarland pointed out one

1884
01:54:41,200 --> 01:54:44,720
of the issues with tight end 
this year, that there's a split 

1885
01:54:44,720 --> 01:54:48,640
between who plays an 11 
personnel and 12 personnel. 

1886
01:54:48,880 --> 01:54:53,320
That's been larger than before 
and the Saints could be part of 

1887
01:54:53,320 --> 01:54:57,680
that trend where Juan Johnson is
the 11 personnel guy and then 

1888
01:54:57,680 --> 01:55:04,240
they use different guys in 12. 
But maybe that is part of easing

1889
01:55:04,240 --> 01:55:07,160
him back in from the injury that
they actually don't want to play

1890
01:55:07,160 --> 01:55:09,960
him in 12, but as he feels 
better, they will. 

1891
01:55:11,000 --> 01:55:14,200
Yeah, yeah. 
The other one that I wanted to 

1892
01:55:14,200 --> 01:55:18,440
talk about is Eric All. 
Yeah, yeah, I got listed in my 

1893
01:55:18,440 --> 01:55:20,800
notes as well. 
But you, you go ahead. 

1894
01:55:20,800 --> 01:55:23,960
You start us off. 
Man, the Bengals seem to really 

1895
01:55:23,960 --> 01:55:26,880
like this guy. 
I I had a note for myself 

1896
01:55:26,880 --> 01:55:30,320
playing the showdown slate that 
I wanted to to bump up the Eric 

1897
01:55:30,320 --> 01:55:36,240
All projection and kind of like 
fudge the Kasiki projection down

1898
01:55:36,240 --> 01:55:39,160
a little bit. 
And Gesicki still was involved 

1899
01:55:39,160 --> 01:55:41,440
was the thing. 
I mean, look at the targets per 

1900
01:55:41,440 --> 01:55:43,080
route run for the Bengals tight 
ends. 

1901
01:55:43,280 --> 01:55:48,280
I think this is just a a side 
effect of them missing T Higgins

1902
01:55:48,280 --> 01:55:50,800
and not having, you know, very 
much in the way of wide 

1903
01:55:50,800 --> 01:55:53,800
receivers. 
So just using the tight end as 

1904
01:55:53,800 --> 01:55:56,480
kind of that that pass catching 
option instead. 

1905
01:55:57,000 --> 01:56:00,120
But it is, it's looking like a 
true committee right now between

1906
01:56:00,120 --> 01:56:04,360
Gesicki and all. 
So that's the the hard part is 

1907
01:56:04,400 --> 01:56:08,320
for either of these guys, so. 
Even even last night you're 

1908
01:56:08,320 --> 01:56:14,600
looking at 54% route share for 
Gasiki, 24% route share for 

1909
01:56:14,600 --> 01:56:18,560
Eric, all that, that like that. 
I think that's exactly what you 

1910
01:56:18,560 --> 01:56:22,000
said where it's a committee like
none of these guys are getting 

1911
01:56:22,160 --> 01:56:28,160
like apart from showdown and 
like I don't even think you 

1912
01:56:28,160 --> 01:56:31,720
could draft if you knew that 
this was the, if you knew that 

1913
01:56:31,720 --> 01:56:36,240
this is what we were getting, I 
don't think you'd take either of

1914
01:56:36,240 --> 01:56:38,560
these guys. 
I don't think you'd draft either

1915
01:56:38,560 --> 01:56:40,840
of these guys in in tight end 
premium at all. 

1916
01:56:42,800 --> 01:56:47,440
Really I would like if we, if we
were redoing an FFPC 20 round 

1917
01:56:47,440 --> 01:56:52,080
draft right now, I think we'd be
scrambling to take both of them 

1918
01:56:52,200 --> 01:56:54,120
late. 
Like not, I'm not saying to take

1919
01:56:54,120 --> 01:56:57,240
them early, but like, dude, we 
were drafting guys like Michael 

1920
01:56:57,240 --> 01:57:00,600
Mayer and like Gerald Everett. 
Like we absolutely would be 

1921
01:57:00,600 --> 01:57:08,360
drafting Mike Isiki and Aerogal.
There was that like there was 

1922
01:57:08,360 --> 01:57:13,360
some chance that it could be 
higher if you knew you're just 

1923
01:57:13,360 --> 01:57:20,600
locked into a 50% route share 
without, without upside. 

1924
01:57:21,520 --> 01:57:25,920
Like I, I don't think you can 
play these guys at all like, and

1925
01:57:25,920 --> 01:57:30,120
I don't, I don't like one of 
them will have to hit a much 

1926
01:57:30,120 --> 01:57:34,440
higher percent route share to, 
to like hit your line up in a, 

1927
01:57:34,440 --> 01:57:37,040
in a real way other than like 
just a random touchdown. 

1928
01:57:37,440 --> 01:57:39,200
No, you're you're right in 
managed league. 

1929
01:57:39,320 --> 01:57:45,880
Like like 54% for Gesicki, even 
when a 23% route share is like 

1930
01:57:46,080 --> 01:57:47,880
that's like, that's pretty to 
me. 

1931
01:57:47,880 --> 01:57:51,040
That's pretty rough. 
Yeah, I, I mean, I think in 

1932
01:57:51,040 --> 01:57:55,400
basketball, like there's some 
argument to be made for having 

1933
01:57:56,600 --> 01:58:00,000
one or, or either of these guys.
Oh no. 

1934
01:58:00,000 --> 01:58:02,880
Uh. 
Oh, can you hear me? 

1935
01:58:06,880 --> 01:58:09,280
I'm having some some audio 
issues. 

1936
01:58:09,560 --> 01:58:13,080
OK. 
But yeah, just to to kind of put

1937
01:58:13,080 --> 01:58:15,720
a bow on tight end, they're 
interesting. 

1938
01:58:16,760 --> 01:58:20,240
It's kind of like they have 
really limited stand alone 

1939
01:58:20,240 --> 01:58:23,760
value, probably some decent 
contingent value. 

1940
01:58:26,320 --> 01:58:29,760
So yeah, that's that's where I 
kind of fall on the Bengals 

1941
01:58:29,760 --> 01:58:33,080
tight end situation. 
It definitely a little 

1942
01:58:33,080 --> 01:58:39,760
interesting in in DFS or like 
weekly formats on slates where 

1943
01:58:39,760 --> 01:58:44,480
you're either doing like a punt 
tight end thing or like in the 

1944
01:58:45,280 --> 01:58:47,400
the prime time Palooza stuff for
underdog. 

1945
01:58:48,280 --> 01:58:56,440
I was taking some Eric all 
taking some aircol and yes, 

1946
01:58:56,440 --> 01:58:58,320
Draco, I can. 
That's not good. 

1947
01:59:00,960 --> 01:59:05,840
I can. 
I can hear you now, but I don't 

1948
01:59:05,840 --> 01:59:11,960
know if you can hear me. 
All right, hang on. 

1949
01:59:11,960 --> 01:59:14,280
We have a little technical 
difficulty here. 

1950
01:59:24,640 --> 01:59:26,760
Sorry for the dead airwaves 
guys. 

1951
01:59:26,760 --> 01:59:28,960
We're just trying to trying to 
work through this. 

1952
01:59:30,720 --> 01:59:37,800
Try to get to the next chart 
here for wide receivers and I 

1953
01:59:37,800 --> 01:59:40,360
can kind of begin walking us 
through it. 

1954
01:59:43,440 --> 01:59:48,440
Let's see any other tight end 
stuff I can I can mention here 

1955
01:59:48,440 --> 01:59:51,240
while Draco gets us squared 
away? 

1956
01:59:54,240 --> 01:59:57,280
Yeah, I mean, not really, no. 
No one on this page is is anyone

1957
01:59:57,280 --> 01:59:59,760
that you really want to be 
starting at all. 

1958
01:59:59,760 --> 02:00:02,320
I mean, the Bengals situation is
just the most interesting 

1959
02:00:02,400 --> 02:00:06,760
because you have a a little bit 
of contingent upside there if 

1960
02:00:06,760 --> 02:00:09,480
either one of those guys could 
consolidate there. 

1961
02:00:09,560 --> 02:00:13,360
I think there's a really small 
path to Eric all. 

1962
02:00:14,000 --> 02:00:17,640
Just like being the better guy 
and and ending up like winning 

1963
02:00:17,640 --> 02:00:19,880
the job from Kasiki. 
But I think it's pretty thin. 

1964
02:00:19,880 --> 02:00:22,200
I think they'll probably just 
end up using them both. 

1965
02:00:22,200 --> 02:00:25,560
So that is that's the painful 
part. 

1966
02:00:30,880 --> 02:00:35,000
Still, still waiting. 
Oh, there we go. 

1967
02:00:35,000 --> 02:00:38,960
OK, so Draco's gotten us over to
the wide receiver chart here. 

1968
02:00:39,960 --> 02:00:43,240
This first wide receiver chart 
is for wide receivers that are 

1969
02:00:43,240 --> 02:00:45,840
running between 85 and 100% of 
the route. 

1970
02:00:45,840 --> 02:00:49,120
So these are the true, like 
every down type starters. 

1971
02:00:49,920 --> 02:00:53,280
Our X axis is our weighted 
targets per route run. 

1972
02:00:53,720 --> 02:00:57,400
So it's targets per route run, 
but with a waiting to account 

1973
02:00:57,400 --> 02:00:59,920
for target depth. 
So if you're just getting a 

1974
02:00:59,920 --> 02:01:03,280
bunch of little dink and dunk 
stuff, you're gonna have a lower

1975
02:01:03,280 --> 02:01:05,360
weighted targets per route run 
than guys that are getting 

1976
02:01:05,360 --> 02:01:09,720
targeted down the field. 
And then on our Y axis is their 

1977
02:01:09,720 --> 02:01:12,560
fantasy points per game that 
they've scored so far. 

1978
02:01:13,560 --> 02:01:17,280
So the X axis going to be a 
little bit more of what tells us

1979
02:01:17,280 --> 02:01:21,360
like guys that we can be looking
out for potentially for some 

1980
02:01:21,360 --> 02:01:23,360
positive regression if they're 
really high or negative 

1981
02:01:23,360 --> 02:01:27,200
regression if they're low there.
And then the Y axis is just 

1982
02:01:27,200 --> 02:01:29,880
describing what they've done for
us lately. 

1983
02:01:30,280 --> 02:01:36,280
So I mean the first one that 
stands out is the the overall 

1984
02:01:36,280 --> 02:01:39,360
wide receiver one in the top 
right hand corner Malik 

1985
02:01:39,360 --> 02:01:44,320
Neighbors, just with an 
absolutely absurd target share. 

1986
02:01:44,760 --> 02:01:49,480
I mean, over 80% weighted 
targets per route run is insane,

1987
02:01:49,480 --> 02:01:52,000
averaging 22 1/2 fantasy points 
per game. 

1988
02:01:52,760 --> 02:01:54,640
He looks like the absolute 
truth. 

1989
02:01:55,880 --> 02:01:59,000
I have to shout out something 
Gretch put in stealing signals, 

1990
02:01:59,000 --> 02:02:02,440
but he was talking about the 
incredible touchdown catch that 

1991
02:02:02,440 --> 02:02:06,120
neighbors had in the corner of 
the end zone where he like 

1992
02:02:06,120 --> 02:02:10,120
stopped on a dime, turned, spun 
around catch, caught the ball 

1993
02:02:10,320 --> 02:02:12,280
and then managed to get both 
feet down. 

1994
02:02:12,640 --> 02:02:15,840
And he said something along the 
lines of, is it possible that 

1995
02:02:15,840 --> 02:02:19,720
Daniel Jones didn't actually 
throw that ball off target, but 

1996
02:02:19,720 --> 02:02:23,600
he was instead intentionally 
throwing it somewhere that only 

1997
02:02:23,600 --> 02:02:27,040
Spider Man could catch it? 
I just thought that was a great 

1998
02:02:27,040 --> 02:02:31,600
way to describe the superhero 
level of effort and execution 

1999
02:02:31,600 --> 02:02:34,000
that Malik Neighbors had. 
I mean, this guy looks so, so 

2000
02:02:34,000 --> 02:02:37,480
good. 
The only thing that really can 

2001
02:02:37,800 --> 02:02:40,840
slow Neighbors down, I think is 
the fact that it's kind of a one

2002
02:02:40,840 --> 02:02:44,320
man band there. 
And so you're going to get some 

2003
02:02:44,320 --> 02:02:48,680
teams that really focus on 
taking him away, but I mean, 

2004
02:02:48,680 --> 02:02:50,880
he's a locked in every single 
week starter. 

2005
02:02:50,880 --> 02:02:53,320
You just you literally never 
bench this guy going forward. 

2006
02:02:53,960 --> 02:03:01,120
He seems seems elite. 
Other guys that I wanted to talk

2007
02:03:01,120 --> 02:03:05,760
about on this chart, Malik 
neighbors draft classmate Marvin

2008
02:03:05,760 --> 02:03:09,880
Harrison junior. 
I mean, I think this is the week

2009
02:03:09,880 --> 02:03:14,760
for Marvin Harrison to kind of 
string together another really 

2010
02:03:14,760 --> 02:03:16,880
good game. 
He had the quiet week 1 where 

2011
02:03:16,880 --> 02:03:19,680
everyone was calling him too 
slow and a bust. 

2012
02:03:19,920 --> 02:03:23,880
Then he erupts in Week 2. 
You know, gets a a good amount 

2013
02:03:23,880 --> 02:03:28,160
of targets here in week 3. 
But I think week 4 where you get

2014
02:03:28,160 --> 02:03:31,720
the great match up with the 
commanders and, you know, just a

2015
02:03:31,720 --> 02:03:33,280
really friendly game 
environment. 

2016
02:03:34,640 --> 02:03:38,400
Also, you're very likely missing
McBride with a concussion. 

2017
02:03:38,400 --> 02:03:42,560
Like I've been aggressively 
drafting Marvin Harrison in the 

2018
02:03:42,560 --> 02:03:44,600
dog bowl. 
He he's a guy I've been taking 

2019
02:03:44,600 --> 02:03:49,840
ahead of ADP every time. 
He's one that I I think should 

2020
02:03:49,840 --> 02:03:52,160
perform very well this week. 
I think he'll be joining 

2021
02:03:52,160 --> 02:03:56,040
neighbors a little farther up 
and to the right on this chart 

2022
02:03:56,040 --> 02:04:00,200
next week. 
A guy that I wanted to talk 

2023
02:04:00,200 --> 02:04:05,320
about as far, and I think this 
is like more of a broad meta 

2024
02:04:07,160 --> 02:04:10,920
discussion rather than like a 
specific player, but I think 

2025
02:04:10,920 --> 02:04:14,000
it's it's useful especially in 
the context of this player as 

2026
02:04:14,000 --> 02:04:19,880
well, is Chris Godwin. 
So he's been really, really 

2027
02:04:20,560 --> 02:04:23,760
effective so far, scoring a 
touchdown in I believe every 

2028
02:04:23,760 --> 02:04:28,400
game so far. 
Just incredible usage to 60% 

2029
02:04:28,400 --> 02:04:31,800
weighted targets per route run. 
The problem is like Chris 

2030
02:04:31,840 --> 02:04:34,560
Godwin's not going to score a 
touchdown in every single game 

2031
02:04:34,600 --> 02:04:37,440
and he does have really strong 
target competition. 

2032
02:04:37,440 --> 02:04:40,360
Mike Evans. 
So I've, I've heard really good 

2033
02:04:40,680 --> 02:04:44,880
analysis on the fact that this 
is a really opportune sell high 

2034
02:04:44,880 --> 02:04:48,120
window for Chris Godwin, which 
I, I certainly agree with, but 

2035
02:04:48,120 --> 02:04:52,080
I, I don't think he is going to 
plummet back down to earth like 

2036
02:04:52,120 --> 02:04:55,600
some people think. 
I think that kind of the mean 

2037
02:04:55,600 --> 02:04:58,880
for Chris Godwin this season 
might be something that we're 

2038
02:04:58,880 --> 02:05:03,160
observing just for players of 
this archetype in general. 

2039
02:05:03,160 --> 02:05:05,800
And that's these wide receivers 
who are like these more 

2040
02:05:05,800 --> 02:05:10,000
possession receivers that are 
running lots of routes out of 

2041
02:05:10,000 --> 02:05:17,080
the slot and are really matching
up well, matching up well 

2042
02:05:17,080 --> 02:05:21,640
against the defenses that have 
become popular in the NFL so 

2043
02:05:21,640 --> 02:05:24,840
far. 
And so we're seeing this with 

2044
02:05:25,040 --> 02:05:29,160
guys like Chris Godwin, we're 
seeing it with guys like Roshi 

2045
02:05:29,160 --> 02:05:32,200
Rice. 
And I would argue that if 

2046
02:05:32,200 --> 02:05:36,600
Cooper, we'd be seeing it with 
Cooper cut as well. 

2047
02:05:37,960 --> 02:05:40,720
Really it's just these guys that
are these possession receivers 

2048
02:05:40,720 --> 02:05:43,040
in the slot. 
I mean, we, we've kind of always

2049
02:05:43,040 --> 02:05:48,560
seen it with almond raw, but I 
mean, he, he kind of came, came 

2050
02:05:48,560 --> 02:05:52,880
into his own during a, you know,
a meta in the NFL where it's 

2051
02:05:52,880 --> 02:05:56,240
been more similar to what we're 
seeing this year, where this 

2052
02:05:56,240 --> 02:05:58,920
year just feels like an even 
more extreme version of what 

2053
02:05:58,920 --> 02:06:04,520
we've seen in years past. 
So I think this might be kind of

2054
02:06:04,520 --> 02:06:07,120
a combination of, yes, it could 
be a little bit of a sell high 

2055
02:06:07,120 --> 02:06:10,400
window on Godwin, but it's not a
sell at all costs. 

2056
02:06:10,400 --> 02:06:13,960
I, I think this might just be 
more signal of, of what we might

2057
02:06:13,960 --> 02:06:18,760
be seeing that's effective 
against defenses in the NFL so 

2058
02:06:18,760 --> 02:06:23,000
far. 
I'm gonna, I'm gonna just try 

2059
02:06:23,000 --> 02:06:27,920
and power through these cause 
with, with Draco's technical 

2060
02:06:27,920 --> 02:06:31,160
difficulty, I, I don't think 
anyone wants to hear me ramble 

2061
02:06:31,200 --> 02:06:34,480
incessantly for super long. 
So I'm just going to go through 

2062
02:06:34,480 --> 02:06:37,000
some of these main points I've 
got on the chart. 

2063
02:06:37,240 --> 02:06:39,560
Garrett Wilson, we talked about 
this earlier. 

2064
02:06:39,560 --> 02:06:42,800
Could potentially be a get right
spot as we see The Jets play 

2065
02:06:42,800 --> 02:06:46,000
volume increase might have been 
a side effect of the Patriots. 

2066
02:06:46,000 --> 02:06:49,880
But I, I do think that the spot 
against the Broncos might be 

2067
02:06:49,880 --> 02:06:54,080
better than people would believe
with how strong the Broncos 

2068
02:06:54,080 --> 02:06:58,440
defense has been. 
I, I think that, you know, we, 

2069
02:06:58,440 --> 02:07:01,560
we heard Aaron Rodgers say 
something to the effect of he 

2070
02:07:01,560 --> 02:07:03,480
and Garrett Wilson need to get 
on the same page. 

2071
02:07:03,800 --> 02:07:07,400
And I've, I've seen lots of 
really good analysis about 

2072
02:07:08,240 --> 02:07:12,040
Garrett Wilson just, you know, 
making some lazy mistakes, not 

2073
02:07:12,040 --> 02:07:16,560
getting his feet down, you know,
just doing not not properly, you

2074
02:07:16,560 --> 02:07:20,680
know, in being in motion and, 
and turning it up field before 

2075
02:07:20,680 --> 02:07:23,040
the ball is snapped, getting a 
careless penalty, stuff like 

2076
02:07:23,040 --> 02:07:25,600
that. 
And I think Garrett Wilson's a 

2077
02:07:25,600 --> 02:07:28,880
talented enough receiver that if
he and Rogers can get on the 

2078
02:07:28,880 --> 02:07:33,200
same page, we might get one of 
these absolute eruption games. 

2079
02:07:33,200 --> 02:07:35,960
And I I think I'd rather be 
early than late to that. 

2080
02:07:35,960 --> 02:07:38,680
So I'm going to attack this 
aggressively as a spot to play 

2081
02:07:38,680 --> 02:07:44,240
Garrett Wilson this week. 
The other notes I had on this 

2082
02:07:44,240 --> 02:07:50,720
chart, I mean, OK, so we got the
huge monster week from Juwan 

2083
02:07:50,720 --> 02:07:53,280
Jennings last week. 
Brandon Nyuk sitting down here 

2084
02:07:53,280 --> 02:07:55,760
in the wind sprinter quadrant 
next to guys like DeMarcus 

2085
02:07:55,760 --> 02:07:59,760
Robinson and Romeo Dobbs. 
I think it's got to be time they

2086
02:07:59,760 --> 02:08:02,680
get Brandon Nyuk involved. 
He had a good number of targets 

2087
02:08:02,680 --> 02:08:06,240
last week. 
I I just think that this offense

2088
02:08:06,240 --> 02:08:09,120
is in desperate need of someone 
to stand up and make some plays 

2089
02:08:09,120 --> 02:08:11,400
for them. 
You could get Kittle back this 

2090
02:08:11,400 --> 02:08:15,200
week, but if if Kittle and Dibo 
are both out, I think it's a 

2091
02:08:15,200 --> 02:08:19,200
really good spot for Iuke just 
to get peppered with volume. 

2092
02:08:20,160 --> 02:08:23,240
Quinton Johnston, is he for real
or not for real? 

2093
02:08:24,000 --> 02:08:28,600
The Quinton Johnston position on
this chart is actually a mirage.

2094
02:08:29,280 --> 02:08:31,800
It's, you know, the fantasy 
points are purely coming from 

2095
02:08:32,200 --> 02:08:35,800
just crazy touchdown volatility.
He's been OK. 

2096
02:08:36,360 --> 02:08:38,160
He's definitely been better than
I thought he would be. 

2097
02:08:38,160 --> 02:08:40,440
I thought he was just an 
unmitigated disaster. 

2098
02:08:40,720 --> 02:08:45,600
He's been OK in an offense 
almost entirely devoid of target

2099
02:08:45,600 --> 02:08:48,960
competition, but he's kind of 
masking the Lad Mcconkey 

2100
02:08:48,960 --> 02:08:50,720
breakout that's happening before
our eyes. 

2101
02:08:50,720 --> 02:08:54,440
Lad leading the team in targets 
per route run, looking like a 

2102
02:08:54,440 --> 02:08:57,520
really strong profile. 
Definitely a buy opportunity on 

2103
02:08:57,520 --> 02:09:01,160
Lad where he's kind of masked by
the Quinton Johnston touchdown 

2104
02:09:01,160 --> 02:09:04,440
efficiency. 
If Herbert misses the game, 

2105
02:09:04,440 --> 02:09:06,320
which he's got that injury he's 
dealing with. 

2106
02:09:06,400 --> 02:09:09,160
You could still have like an 
extended by window on Ladd 

2107
02:09:09,160 --> 02:09:11,240
Mcconkey. 
But I'm definitely selling this 

2108
02:09:11,240 --> 02:09:13,240
Quintin Johnston performance so 
far. 

2109
02:09:14,840 --> 02:09:17,640
Crystal Lave kind of talked 
about the Saints as maybe 

2110
02:09:17,640 --> 02:09:22,240
misleading us with their overall
volume that we expected from 

2111
02:09:22,240 --> 02:09:24,400
them with the first two games 
being blowouts. 

2112
02:09:24,400 --> 02:09:27,120
We thought they might be, you 
know, just this really 

2113
02:09:27,120 --> 02:09:30,960
fast-paced, efficient offense 
with their play action rates pre

2114
02:09:30,960 --> 02:09:34,440
snap motion. 
Turns out they might just be a 

2115
02:09:34,440 --> 02:09:37,560
run heavy offense that can be 
efficient. 

2116
02:09:37,760 --> 02:09:41,800
More along the lines think think
like Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee 

2117
02:09:41,800 --> 02:09:45,640
Titans, right, like really 
efficient run heavy play action 

2118
02:09:46,200 --> 02:09:49,480
type team. 
So I'm not super worried about 

2119
02:09:49,480 --> 02:09:54,880
Chris Olave, but I'm also less 
bullish on him this week than I 

2120
02:09:54,880 --> 02:09:58,840
was last week, which is weird 
because he had his best game so 

2121
02:09:58,840 --> 02:10:03,240
far this season this last week, 
finally getting in the end zone 

2122
02:10:03,240 --> 02:10:05,480
and putting up a little over 80 
yards. 

2123
02:10:06,040 --> 02:10:09,080
But I just think you might be 
seeing like a lower volume 

2124
02:10:09,080 --> 02:10:12,960
offense, which might not be as 
exciting for Olave. 

2125
02:10:13,040 --> 02:10:17,800
So not panicking, but also like 
kind of stemming some of the 

2126
02:10:17,800 --> 02:10:19,800
bullishness that I felt towards 
him. 

2127
02:10:21,760 --> 02:10:26,880
Let's see, I think that we may 
be good to move on to the next 

2128
02:10:26,880 --> 02:10:30,520
chart. 
So I will let Draco know here. 

2129
02:10:31,240 --> 02:10:36,960
Oh, he he's so good. 
So this chart, I mean, we see 

2130
02:10:36,960 --> 02:10:43,240
Rashi Rice, absolutely elite, 
elite roll, you know, incredible

2131
02:10:43,240 --> 02:10:46,200
weighted targets per route run 
up at the top with other elite 

2132
02:10:46,200 --> 02:10:48,160
receiver Jawan Jennings, of 
course. 

2133
02:10:48,560 --> 02:10:51,440
Obviously, I think the Jawan 
Jennings stuff is more just like

2134
02:10:51,440 --> 02:10:55,440
that one week blip on the radar 
out of absolute necessity. 

2135
02:10:55,680 --> 02:10:57,520
Although I don't want to take 
anything away from Jawan 

2136
02:10:57,520 --> 02:10:59,480
Jennings. 
By the way, if you didn't watch 

2137
02:10:59,480 --> 02:11:01,520
this game, go back and watch the
game. 

2138
02:11:01,520 --> 02:11:04,720
The Jawan Jennings performance 
is way more impressive than the 

2139
02:11:04,720 --> 02:11:07,360
box score, which you have to be 
thinking, how is that possible? 

2140
02:11:07,360 --> 02:11:10,760
He scored 50 fantasy points. 
The guy went insane. 

2141
02:11:11,520 --> 02:11:14,400
The reason it's more impressive 
is there were multiple throws 

2142
02:11:14,400 --> 02:11:17,760
that were for all intents and 
purposes, interceptions that 

2143
02:11:17,760 --> 02:11:21,400
Jawan Jennings just decided, no,
it's not an interception, It's a

2144
02:11:21,400 --> 02:11:25,280
Jawan Jennings reception. 
And I it was incredible. 

2145
02:11:25,280 --> 02:11:28,720
There was a really awful pass 
that should have been. 

2146
02:11:28,720 --> 02:11:31,600
I mean, the 49ers did manage to 
lose this game. 

2147
02:11:32,560 --> 02:11:35,680
They they definitely should have
lost it earlier than they did. 

2148
02:11:36,120 --> 02:11:39,960
There's a really bad turnover 
worthy play where Jawan Jennings

2149
02:11:39,960 --> 02:11:43,400
just absolutely Moss as a guy 
and saves the game. 

2150
02:11:43,400 --> 02:11:47,040
I mean, I thought that was the 
game saving play by him. 

2151
02:11:47,400 --> 02:11:50,440
Turns out the 49ers were beyond 
saving. 

2152
02:11:51,800 --> 02:11:54,680
Yeah, this this could be a 
really interesting spot against 

2153
02:11:54,680 --> 02:11:59,280
the Patriots where the 49ers are
are in desperation mode. 

2154
02:11:59,280 --> 02:12:04,600
They need to win a game. 
Let's see here other notes that 

2155
02:12:04,600 --> 02:12:08,360
I had on this chart. 
Jane Reed, incredible buying 

2156
02:12:08,360 --> 02:12:10,800
opportunity. 
One of the best receivers in the

2157
02:12:10,800 --> 02:12:12,840
NFL. 
You can just take that to the 

2158
02:12:12,840 --> 02:12:15,240
bank. 
It's just getting masked by the 

2159
02:12:15,240 --> 02:12:19,640
Malik Willis stuff right now. 
If you get by the way, Jayden 

2160
02:12:19,640 --> 02:12:23,360
Reid, like incredible, 
incredible underdog pick right 

2161
02:12:23,360 --> 02:12:28,200
now, the ADP on him could be 
extraordinarily volatile. 

2162
02:12:28,200 --> 02:12:33,320
If you get a Jordan Love is 
cleared to play notice and then 

2163
02:12:33,320 --> 02:12:35,440
you're going to get projections 
come out later in the week. 

2164
02:12:36,280 --> 02:12:38,520
Jayden Reid just seems like one 
of the best receivers in the 

2165
02:12:38,520 --> 02:12:41,200
game just like we can just full 
stop that. 

2166
02:12:41,280 --> 02:12:43,400
He's very good, extremely 
dynamic. 

2167
02:12:43,440 --> 02:12:47,840
I mean, it, it feels weird to 
compare him to Debo because to 

2168
02:12:47,840 --> 02:12:51,360
me he's like a little bit like 
Debo will straight run through a

2169
02:12:51,360 --> 02:12:53,360
guy's face. 
He's like got a little bit more 

2170
02:12:53,360 --> 02:12:55,320
running back to him than Jayden 
Reid does. 

2171
02:12:55,520 --> 02:12:58,800
But Jayden Reid is just as 
dynamic with the ball in his 

2172
02:12:58,800 --> 02:13:03,200
hand as as anyone in the league.
He's incredible to watch. 

2173
02:13:03,400 --> 02:13:06,960
A super, super exciting player. 
If you're in a like a managed 

2174
02:13:06,960 --> 02:13:09,640
league with training like a home
league, buy the shit out of 

2175
02:13:09,640 --> 02:13:14,600
Jayden Reid right now. 
Some other guys on this chart 

2176
02:13:14,600 --> 02:13:19,600
that we were looking at, we had 
I, I mentioned lad Mcconkey 

2177
02:13:19,600 --> 02:13:21,320
already. 
You can see the incredible 

2178
02:13:21,320 --> 02:13:22,960
weighted targets per route run 
there. 

2179
02:13:23,240 --> 02:13:26,400
That's what we're looking for. 
You know, 70% weighted targets 

2180
02:13:26,400 --> 02:13:30,520
per route run, but not popping 
yet on the fantasy points per 

2181
02:13:30,520 --> 02:13:33,400
game. 
This is like a a clear get ahead

2182
02:13:33,400 --> 02:13:37,920
of the trend on lad Mcconkey. 
We talked about Deonte Johnson 

2183
02:13:37,920 --> 02:13:39,640
earlier in the context of Andy 
Dalton. 

2184
02:13:40,280 --> 02:13:43,040
Think we're in a really good 
spot for Deonte Johnson. 

2185
02:13:43,040 --> 02:13:44,920
Incredible weighted targets for 
route run. 

2186
02:13:45,560 --> 02:13:48,400
Probably will see his fantasy 
points per game come up to, I 

2187
02:13:48,400 --> 02:13:50,280
would assume with the feeling 
injury. 

2188
02:13:50,280 --> 02:13:53,080
So really, really like Deonte 
here. 

2189
02:13:53,720 --> 02:13:56,200
Shaheed still getting great 
weighted targets for route run. 

2190
02:13:56,520 --> 02:13:58,280
Like Draco said, just didn't 
connect this week. 

2191
02:13:58,280 --> 02:14:00,720
So it's fine. 
I mentioned Khalil Shakur is the

2192
02:14:00,720 --> 02:14:05,240
best receiver on the Bills. 
Think it's pretty clear he he's 

2193
02:14:05,320 --> 02:14:06,680
he's the best receiver on the 
Bills. 

2194
02:14:06,680 --> 02:14:10,600
I the frustrating thing is I've 
been a big Khalil Shakur bowl 

2195
02:14:10,600 --> 02:14:13,280
for multiple years and the Bills
just refused to use him. 

2196
02:14:13,960 --> 02:14:17,080
He looks like the best one now, 
but they're still doing this 

2197
02:14:17,080 --> 02:14:19,440
annoying committee thing where 
they really like are spreading 

2198
02:14:19,440 --> 02:14:21,240
it out and not concentrating the
targets. 

2199
02:14:21,800 --> 02:14:25,080
Going to be tough for fantasy, 
going to be not super pretty 

2200
02:14:25,720 --> 02:14:28,200
hard to start any of these guys 
in a managed league. 

2201
02:14:28,520 --> 02:14:30,600
You can only start. 
The only reason you could start 

2202
02:14:30,600 --> 02:14:33,120
Dalton Kincaid is because of the
tight end designation. 

2203
02:14:33,320 --> 02:14:36,600
If he's a wide receiver, he's 
obviously unstartable, so you're

2204
02:14:36,600 --> 02:14:39,520
just in a situation where it's a
low volume passing off and it's 

2205
02:14:39,520 --> 02:14:42,880
kind of spread around. 
Shakira's the best pass catcher,

2206
02:14:42,880 --> 02:14:46,200
closely followed by Kincaid. 
I, you guys know I'm a Kincaid 

2207
02:14:46,200 --> 02:14:49,000
hater, but I, I, I do want it. 
Like, I want to provide good 

2208
02:14:49,000 --> 02:14:53,600
analysis and I, my Kincaid 
outlook is definitely more 

2209
02:14:53,600 --> 02:14:57,120
bullish after this last week 
than it was earlier this season.

2210
02:14:57,640 --> 02:15:03,760
I still think he sucks. 
Brian Thomas might be the lone 

2211
02:15:03,760 --> 02:15:06,880
bright spot on the Jaguars, but 
it also might not matter because

2212
02:15:06,880 --> 02:15:12,440
the Jaguars are atrocious. 
All right, we can go on to the 

2213
02:15:12,440 --> 02:15:13,960
next chart here. 
We'll wrap it up. 

2214
02:15:19,520 --> 02:15:21,520
Let's see. 
Last chart here. 

2215
02:15:22,960 --> 02:15:24,600
I think I'm back just for the 
end. 

2216
02:15:24,840 --> 02:15:28,000
Wow, Draco coming in clutch for 
the most important chart of the 

2217
02:15:28,000 --> 02:15:31,120
night. 
I mean, I'll throw. 

2218
02:15:31,120 --> 02:15:36,280
I couldn't miss the 40 to 7% 
root run receiver chart. 

2219
02:15:36,800 --> 02:15:40,000
I'll throw it over to you for 
Xavier Legat. 

2220
02:15:40,160 --> 02:15:43,160
We we talked about, you know, 
increasing bullishness for 

2221
02:15:43,160 --> 02:15:44,760
Panthers weapons. 
What are your thoughts on the 

2222
02:15:44,760 --> 02:15:49,240
GAT going forward? 
So yeah, you have the Andy 

2223
02:15:49,960 --> 02:15:57,560
Dalton and sorry when I'm still 
having some issue. 

2224
02:16:00,600 --> 02:16:04,960
So, yeah, you have the Andy 
Dalton and him providing some 

2225
02:16:04,960 --> 02:16:06,880
stability for the offense going 
forward. 

2226
02:16:07,360 --> 02:16:11,080
And then you also have the 
injury to Alan Thiel. 

2227
02:16:11,080 --> 02:16:13,880
And I don't think he's it's like
a one for one. 

2228
02:16:13,960 --> 02:16:17,560
I, I, I think that they are very
different players, but that 

2229
02:16:17,800 --> 02:16:22,120
that's definitely pretty like 
it's a clear catalyst for him to

2230
02:16:22,120 --> 02:16:26,400
play more routes. 
And then after feeling if he and

2231
02:16:26,400 --> 02:16:29,720
it seems like he is playing 
well, if he can keep playing 

2232
02:16:29,720 --> 02:16:33,080
well, increases routes and then 
maybe get some better 

2233
02:16:33,080 --> 02:16:35,559
quarterback play. 
That does seem like something 

2234
02:16:35,559 --> 02:16:39,680
where it's, it's pretty sneaky, 
like kind of like high upside 

2235
02:16:39,680 --> 02:16:41,840
for the rest of the year. 
Yeah. 

2236
02:16:41,920 --> 02:16:45,520
And as a note, after Thielen 
went out, Ligette's snapshare 

2237
02:16:45,520 --> 02:16:48,040
increased substantially. 
I want to say he played every 

2238
02:16:48,040 --> 02:16:51,920
snap after that. 
I can't confirm that right now. 

2239
02:16:53,200 --> 02:16:58,959
The last two notes I had on here
the answer to the Rams wide 

2240
02:16:58,959 --> 02:17:03,320
receivers while Cup and Puka are
out was to to Atwell. 

2241
02:17:03,480 --> 02:17:09,280
But more more realistic answer 
is none of the above because the

2242
02:17:09,280 --> 02:17:12,719
Rams went out of their infamous 
eleven personnel. 

2243
02:17:12,760 --> 02:17:16,959
I didn't think we'd ever see the
day Draco when Sean McVeigh 

2244
02:17:17,760 --> 02:17:22,040
waved goodbye to 11 personnel. 
It turns out all it takes is 

2245
02:17:22,040 --> 02:17:25,639
having to put, you know, 22 out 
well, DeMarcus Robinson and 

2246
02:17:25,639 --> 02:17:28,360
Jordan Whittington out there as 
your three wide receivers or 

2247
02:17:28,480 --> 02:17:32,760
Tyler Johnson to really make a 
man not want to play three wide 

2248
02:17:32,760 --> 02:17:36,160
receivers. 
So the Rams switch to two tight 

2249
02:17:36,160 --> 02:17:38,879
ends instead of playing a third 
receiver. 

2250
02:17:39,920 --> 02:17:43,680
Is 2 two out well at all useful 
or is this just a complete stay 

2251
02:17:43,680 --> 02:17:45,719
away for the wide receivers on 
the Rams? 

2252
02:17:46,719 --> 02:17:55,320
And I think 222 is useful for 
kind of like a waiver pick up 

2253
02:17:55,719 --> 02:17:59,440
because he did have some big 
games off this year. 

2254
02:18:04,080 --> 02:18:07,120
OK. 
The last guy I had here as a 

2255
02:18:07,120 --> 02:18:13,799
note is Jordan Addison. 
Sounds promising for him to 

2256
02:18:13,799 --> 02:18:17,959
potentially be back this week 
and you're getting a receiver 

2257
02:18:18,040 --> 02:18:21,559
that should be the second option
in a highly efficient offense 

2258
02:18:21,959 --> 02:18:24,120
where their quarterback is 
leading the league in touchdown 

2259
02:18:24,120 --> 02:18:27,719
rate and he's free. 
He's free this week. 

2260
02:18:27,719 --> 02:18:31,080
You can get him as your last 
overall pick, you know, on 

2261
02:18:31,080 --> 02:18:33,799
Underdog in in weekly formats 
right now. 

2262
02:18:34,559 --> 02:18:40,200
Yeah, we love free Jordan Obson.
Yeah, I think this is and and 

2263
02:18:40,240 --> 02:18:42,440
you want you want something 
really fun, Draco, You want to 

2264
02:18:42,440 --> 02:18:45,760
hear it. 
You're getting the Packers and 

2265
02:18:45,760 --> 02:18:50,360
Vikings playing now for for deep
lore ball blowers. 

2266
02:18:50,400 --> 02:18:54,080
You'll remember that Justin 
Jefferson has has famously been 

2267
02:18:54,080 --> 02:18:57,440
shut down by the Packers in some
past games. 

2268
02:18:57,920 --> 02:19:01,680
And so if you get Justin 
Jefferson being fully shut down 

2269
02:19:01,680 --> 02:19:05,000
here, do we get the Jordan 
Addison eruption game? 

2270
02:19:06,200 --> 02:19:09,080
I think I lost Rico. 
And then do we get to bring it 

2271
02:19:09,080 --> 02:19:13,120
back with Jaden Reed as Jordan 
Love makes his return to play? 

2272
02:19:15,840 --> 02:19:18,320
Sorry, I'm sorry. 
Say, say, say that. 

2273
02:19:18,480 --> 02:19:22,120
OK. 
Jordan Addison with a Jaden Reed

2274
02:19:22,120 --> 02:19:24,480
bring back. 
That sounds pretty fun, yeah. 

2275
02:19:24,920 --> 02:19:29,680
Where you have AII guess some of
your you've got risk there 

2276
02:19:29,680 --> 02:19:32,160
because you've got Jordan 
Addison returning from what high

2277
02:19:32,160 --> 02:19:39,000
ankle sprain injury and you've 
got a Jordan Love coming back 

2278
02:19:39,000 --> 02:19:41,920
from an injury. 
I feel better about Jordan Love 

2279
02:19:41,920 --> 02:19:46,000
coming back because his position
doesn't require quite as dynamic

2280
02:19:46,000 --> 02:19:50,600
Atlanticism, but that is pretty 
fun. 

2281
02:19:50,640 --> 02:19:53,480
That's a pretty fun. 
You've definitely seen crazier 

2282
02:19:53,480 --> 02:19:56,600
things then guys come back from 
injuries and then explode. 

2283
02:19:57,000 --> 02:20:02,040
But you, you, you certainly have
risk there like, but but you're,

2284
02:20:02,040 --> 02:20:04,360
you're getting the discount that
comes with the risk. 

2285
02:20:04,360 --> 02:20:05,880
Right now you're getting more 
than the discount. 

2286
02:20:06,120 --> 02:20:10,640
It's where when you have to pay 
the expensive price for the risk

2287
02:20:10,960 --> 02:20:17,720
that you you avoid it. 
Yep, I don't think there were 

2288
02:20:17,720 --> 02:20:20,600
any other notes I had here. 
Did you have any other guys you 

2289
02:20:20,600 --> 02:20:23,760
wanted to touch on here, Draco, 
before you get us out of here? 

2290
02:20:26,200 --> 02:20:28,600
So I, I know I missed some of 
it. 

2291
02:20:28,600 --> 02:20:32,320
Did did you talk anything about 
kind of Christian Watson having 

2292
02:20:32,320 --> 02:20:35,600
his snaps eating into by Wix? 
I didn't. 

2293
02:20:35,680 --> 02:20:40,920
I did not. 
So I I think that's important to

2294
02:20:40,920 --> 02:20:46,520
me that makes it even even even 
with even with Jordan love back.

2295
02:20:46,760 --> 02:20:49,720
That does make it pretty. 
That feels pretty tricky to 

2296
02:20:49,720 --> 02:20:53,000
start either of them. 
You need some, you need one of 

2297
02:20:53,000 --> 02:20:54,640
those guys that kind of 
consolidate. 

2298
02:20:56,360 --> 02:20:59,920
I guess there's leagues where 
you kind of just have to start 

2299
02:20:59,920 --> 02:21:02,320
them and hope that you get that 
big play. 

2300
02:21:03,200 --> 02:21:11,240
But that I, I can, I'll put the 
exact, the exact stat now, But 

2301
02:21:11,640 --> 02:21:16,520
Christian, Christian Watson 
having his, his, his routes and 

2302
02:21:16,520 --> 02:21:19,720
snaps eaten into that, that 
that's to me that's pretty 

2303
02:21:19,720 --> 02:21:22,320
devastating considering the 
price you paid there. 

2304
02:21:24,280 --> 02:21:30,240
Yeah, that's a good shout. 
And yeah, so him, Christian 

2305
02:21:30,240 --> 02:21:36,240
Watson down to 60%, then Tavian 
wakes up to 52% and then you've 

2306
02:21:36,240 --> 02:21:39,440
got Dobbs and Reed at 72 and 
88%. 

2307
02:21:39,440 --> 02:21:45,040
So Jayden Reed at 72% last week 
at Dobbs at 88%. 

2308
02:21:46,080 --> 02:21:50,440
And then that's just last week 
because it's the kind of like 

2309
02:21:50,760 --> 02:21:56,720
the loss in time. 
But yeah, I it does feel like 

2310
02:21:56,720 --> 02:22:00,280
you can only really play those 
two guys with confidence. 

2311
02:22:02,480 --> 02:22:05,960
Yeah. 
Jeez, what? 

2312
02:22:07,160 --> 02:22:09,360
I know you touched on this a 
lot, Jayden Reid. 

2313
02:22:09,360 --> 02:22:11,600
Still with 33% targets. 
Sure. 

2314
02:22:11,920 --> 02:22:16,200
Yeah, target rate, I should say.
Yeah, no Jayden Reid, one of the

2315
02:22:16,200 --> 02:22:17,920
best receivers in the league 
already. 

2316
02:22:19,000 --> 02:22:24,080
Yeah, well, I apologize everyone
for my audio issues and thank 

2317
02:22:24,080 --> 02:22:28,040
you, Zach for taking us through.
And I'll charge my hearing aids 

2318
02:22:28,040 --> 02:22:33,760
ahead of the podcast next week. 
All right, that'll, that'll do 

2319
02:22:33,760 --> 02:22:36,000
it for Week 3. 
Thanks everybody, and we will 

2320
02:22:36,000 --> 02:22:38,280
see you next week. 
See you next week.