Welcome to Week 3 where we are going to review charts and mourn
our best ball portfolios because we are officially poor since we
have no Saquon Barkley. This is stat chasing Pat Fryer
Helmo. This is why.
This is why I'm hot. Anita handjob fix your side,
Jamar. Alpha play, Chase, you can't
handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point here, right? Week 3 we are.
What is it? Just basically a little bit over
20% of the way through the regular season so far until we
get to fantasy playoffs. Yeah, Yeah.
We're, we've gotten what we're coming up on and then so it's 16
weeks. So after next week, we'll be 25%
of the way there. Oh, I was, I was like 14 weeks
for fantasy play and then week 15 fantasy.
Play. Oh, oh, right.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Sorry I had a brain fart, but
you're right. Week four, we yeah, you're
right. So 25 something like 20% of the
way there. And then even even in, in, in
main event season, we are actually 1/4 of the way there.
Yeah, regular season, yeah. And Saquon Barkley,
unfortunately, is still kicking our shit in.
Taking our lunch money. Yeah, I, I did a little bit of a
data dive and went back and looked at basketball mania for
advance rates through, from every week basically through
week 14 and, and wanted to see what percentage, yeah, what
percentage of teams that were advancing, say in Week 3, we're
still advancing By the time it got to week 14, it didn't make
me feel any better. It was like surprising how
sticky. So not great if you're, you
know, if you're thinking it's a long season.
We got a lot of time for stuff to come together, that's true,
but also it's not that long. Right.
And, and what makes me feel better is when you have a high
advance rate season because you, you hit on a few key, key
players, when you get to the playoffs, you you're just really
relying on that same player that everybody else has.
And a lot of those extra teams that you get in are weak outside
of that one player, whereas when and and these kind of and and
hopefully it's not, but in what's looking like a low
advance rate season and the teams that you do get true
despite not having that player tend to be really good.
So that, that that's kind of what that's my copium.
That's, that's some great acopium.
I mean, what I'm what I'm relying on at this point is that
I, I mean, the only guy that I've really faded where I'm
like, yeah, that's one where if knowing what I know now, like
getting to see it play out, if I could go back, I probably would
draft more Saquon. But honestly, all the other
fades, like I'm still OK fading. Alvin Kamara after seeing this
week, I think talking about the Saints is going to be really
interesting. With that, we should we should
segue to the charts because the Saints are a really interesting
one to me. I think talking about them as a
team from the quarterback chart is a a good segue here.
But we were lied to Draco. We thought that the Saints or
this high flying, you know, going to be exciting offense.
They're doing all this play action, all this pre snap
motion. We were pretty sure that Kubiak
had Unchained them and Derek Carr was going to be the best
version of himself we'd ever seen.
And it turns out the Saints aren't actually pass heavy.
We thought they might be just purely because, you know, they,
they didn't have to pass in those.
They, they, so the Saints are 11 -, 11% pass rate over
expectation. So they're 11% under
expectation. And so, and they did and they
were like that even in, in high run heavy game scripts before
they were they, they were actually passing less than a
low, a low expectation. And so this would that now they
enter the game where their, their expectation is a little
higher and, and they still passed way underneath that.
And so -11% on the year. Yeah, the the -11% on the year
is definitely concerning. I really what it just tells me
is we might have jumped the gun a little bit on the Saints being
such a fun offense. They'll probably be an efficient
offense, but they just might not have the volume to ascend to
this truly elite offense. So I, I mean, we're seeing Derek
Carr start to come back down to earth with his adjusted yards
per attempt after a, a down game against the Eagles there.
But yeah, I, I really, I, I think that as a whole, the
Saints will still be fine for fantasy, but it might not be the
scorched earth season that we are thinking after the first two
weeks. Yeah, yeah.
And I, I, I guess and, and, and so I, I think you, you'd noted
in the private chat that I was having some audio issues and
just want to make know that we're at the start of the show.
Do you have, have we fixed those?
I fixed it. Let me, let me talk.
I can still hear myself echo a tiny bit through your.
End. But I'm not sure if that's just
coming through for me or if that's OK everyone.
So if you're in the chat, please let us know if you're getting
some echo. OK, OK, thanks.
Thanks for the the all good and so on on Derek Carr.
I guess they they they did go for those deep shots to Shaheed.
Just the difference this week is that they missed on those.
Right. They did have they had some
nice, nice completions to Olave and but it does it does make me
wonder is if when they on the weeks where they hit on deep
shots to Shaheed, they're going to be efficient.
And on the weeks where they don't, they're not like it might
be too early to, to, to be at that conclusion, but that that,
that, that, that that's, that's kind of the direction I'm
heading. Yeah, I think the efficiency
still can be there as a whole, with or without the deep shots
in a given week. I just, obviously the weeks
where they hit the deep shots are going to be a lot more fun.
I I just think that the volume is not really going to be there
now, granted no volume. No, the Eagles.
The Eagles didn't. Really.
And they were at, they were at 4.7 adjusted yards per attempt
this week and after a 14 point 911.3 and, and, and maybe maybe
I'm being too binary here and, but missing on those deep shots
is going to make a big difference there.
And I think, I do think that's a big part of the difference.
Yeah, no, that's, that's fair. I I definitely.
Non derogatory I hope. No, yeah, not non derogatory.
That's fair. Let's let's move on from Derek
Carr and go to the right side of the chart.
But still someone with an extremely high adjusted yards
per attempt and that is Andy Dalton.
I don't think anyone is under the delusion that Andy Dalton is
going to maintain, you know, north of A10 adjusted yards per
attempt and this level of volume.
But I think we we definitely could get some fun quarterback
games out of Andy Dalton. What do you think is a
reasonable kind of range to project for him going forward?
And that's that's really difficult.
I think I think you can probably get that 20, honestly, I think
it's achievable for him to get something along the lines of 20
points a game. And because the Panthers,
obviously they they they they beat the Raiders pretty badly,
but they still don't seem like this great team.
So they probably will have to throw a lot.
And but 111 some of the things that stand out to me about Andy
Dalton here is that his time to throw is really low.
His A dot was really low. And yet he was having this great
efficiency, great success. And I do know that the half the
Raiders defense was kind of injured this week, including
what's the what's the, the defensive end that they have Max
Crosby. Yeah, he, he, he had some foot
pain or something like that. So I but I do wonder if they
were missing some kind of key starter this week.
And there was some there was a week there was a liability on
their team that they were just going over after and over and
over and over again. And, and that had some big piece
to do with their success because it, it, it seems very unusual to
be able to troll quickly and, and, and short and then have
efficiency over and over and over again that, that that
doesn't strike me as something where that that's going to be
super sustainable in the NFL. Now remind me, who do they play
this week? Is it?
I want to say it's the Bengals, is that right?
So Carolina Panthers, Oh yeah, they do play the Bengals because
it's like, it's the, the makeup game, isn't it?
For for Andy Dalton. Oh, there you go.
So that that could actually be a fun one.
And you had you had mentioned when we were talking before the
show that you thought Joe Burrow was in an interesting potential
positive regression spot. So what do you think about, you
know, Joe Burrow, you know, both from a season long level and
also just in this matchup going forward against the Panthers?
So I think it it depends. It depends on how much weight
you want to give to the that New England game.
He played pretty purely in that game.
And you can make the excuse that they lost T Higgins late in the
week, that Jamar Chase was just back from a holdout and that
that caused some big issues. But if, I guess, if, if you, if
you include that and then also include the game last night
where they were super efficient, but then playing this kind of
bad defense and then you add the Chiefs game in, he actually,
he's been playing pretty efficiently.
So they have a, he's at 8.2 adjusted yards per tent, which
is pretty good. And, and then when you look at
the touchdown stuff, so they, they've been under about 0.8
touchdowns over his, over his expectation.
So he's been playing well in terms of the yardage and stuff
like that. They just haven't been getting
the touchdowns. So to me, and they've actually
been trying a decent amount. So their pass rate over
expectation over those three weeks is 7% and they've been at
a 70% rate. So they've been throwing a lot,
throwing on a yardage basis pretty efficiently.
But they've underachieved when it comes to the touchdowns
against, I mean, the Patriots and then the Chiefs having two.
Those be two of the three games like I I think that more than
what like balances out having the the commander's game in
there as well. So I that kind of strikes me as
him playing well and then I I don't know how much this is
going to sustain over season given that they lost it looks
like a key offensive lineman, but they've been fifth in the
league in past block win rate. So I, I think that that that
does strike me as despite it being somewhat disappointing
start, that does strike me as something where and you, you you
could get a lot of fantasy goodness there.
Yeah, definitely an interesting game to attack potentially on
both sides, both quarterbacks looking.
I, I mean, do you think it's a fair assessment to say both of
these guys will probably remain in this top right quadrant as we
progress throughout the season? So I think Joe Burrow is, I feel
pretty confident that he's going to have a good year this year.
And they're they're Owen Tree. They're probably feeling pretty
bad and that the commander's loss is going to be painful.
Their defense doesn't seem to be playing very well either, but
their offense, their passing offense is playing at a pretty
high level. They've just underachieved on
the touchdowns. Andy Dalton and I think is
probably going to get there on a lot more volume.
I think he can probably be reasonable efficiency over the
course of the year. But him being like top, top
right, I, I, I, I I don't, I don't see that like, and that's
not that's not a controversial thing to say.
I think he can be pretty close to the middle and maybe in in
that top right quadrant, but towards the bottom left of it.
But like a a Jared Goff type efficiency or a Dak Prescott
type efficiency maybe maybe with like a Matt Stafford efficiency
kind of as. A yeah, yeah, yeah.
In that range. In that range, you're not
comping them to those players. You're saying that in in in this
range, correct. He he, he, he, he can be
certainly. Because the other thing that's
interesting about the the Panthers and let me pull this up
so that I have the exact number. Oh, God dammit, Andy Dalton.
There he is. They're yeah, they're I, I guess
the other thing to note, their online has not been the the
best. So their, their, their pass
block win rate is just 50%. And then Andy Dalton, he was
able to overcome that, which is a 2 seconds time to throw and
throwing short. So yeah, I, I, I'm, I'm just as
I dig deep more deep dive more into this.
That does strike me as something where if they, if they play a
team with a little better coverage, they, they could
struggle a lot more than that for sure.
But with the, with the caveat that there will be volume there.
And then I think I remember one of the stats, one of the key
stats of the game for the Bengals being that their pass
rush win rate was really bad. So they were they, they, they,
they only got pressure on Jaden Daniels something like 10% of
the time. And, and that was a big part of,
of, of him winning. Or if they if, if they, if they
struggle again and get the Panthers against the Panthers
and give him time, then, then then I, I certainly you could
see some more production from the Panthers.
Yeah, I I think that all is pretty reasonable.
So definitely looking forward to that Cincinnati and Carolina
game this week. Let's let's move on to a couple
other bright spots on the quarterback chart.
We'll focus on two of the best passers in the league and that
is Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy. Just like we all expected, Sam
Darnold getting sufficiency with an absolutely absurd touchdown
rate of over 10%. I mean, he is just lighting it
up. Brock Purdy is this efficient
with surprisingly a 4.2% touchdown rate.
So do you think that, I mean, it, it kind of all fits together
neatly when you kind of think through it logically for the
49ers. But when they start getting some
of their weapons back, if Purdy plays as well as he's been
playing, I mean it could be a a pretty massive positive
regression spot for Purdy if he's converting more of these
touchdowns. Yeah, I I agree.
And and and and talking about some of the the online stuff.
And so they had a they had a he had a tree he has over the
season has a 3.2 seconds time to throw, which is one of the
highest. And their online is really good.
They had the play action pass. So all of that is kind of coming
together for a really high yeah, yardage per attempt and this and
and and that's despite, like you said, a low touchdown rate.
So coming in on their expectation.
So when they get their weapons back that that could certainly
be some fireworks. I I guess the only the only
thing that about the the the big game he had against the Rams.
The Rams are kind of profiling as as this kind of get right
defense as well, aren't they? Yeah, absolutely there is.
I, I was making a list of the teams that you want to be.
I mean, you know, we're only three games in, but it's already
starting to get clear who you want to be targeting for
fantasy. And the Rams are certainly one,
the Panthers are definitely one. The Bengals, the Commanders, the
Cowboys, though, those are all really, you know, teams where
you're really happy to be starting your weapons against
them just because they have a combination of most of those
teams are are pretty poor defensively.
And they're also willing to pass.
Oh, throw the Colts in there as well, because the Colts have a
pretty bad defense and they've been, you know, playing fast.
Anthony Richards either, you know, throwing a touchdown or
throwing an interception. So yeah, and and then I I guess
so I'm just looking after the adjusted yards per temp for
Purdy by week. So he's got in in, in week 1, he
was 8 week two 8.2 and then then 11.8 on in week 3.
So I think it's fair to say that that third week is kind of an
outlier, but still going to live in the top right hand side of
this chart. Yeah, definitely.
I mean, it's just kind of if you're in one of these, you
know, Shannon scan systems like it is what you need to win in
the NFL right now And right guys are they're executing the
systems they're in well enough to be very efficient.
And that is what's good in the league right now.
That or you can just do what Kyler Murray is doing and add
some yardage on the ground as well and also just be able to
hit, you know, Marvin Harrison junior for deep bombs.
But you know, the the extra touchdown of fantasy production
plus every game from the rushing yards certainly doesn't hurt
Kyler Murray. And he actually gets the matchup
of the week where you get Jane Daniels, where these guys are
kind of similar in, you know, they're they're both rushing
quarterbacks. They're both, you know, they're
not like some of the other Russian quarterbacks like.
Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, where they're more like the bigger
bodied guys, like more physical goal line vulture potential.
These guys are just they're, they're more like the Lamar
archetype where they can just like really hurt you with their
legs. Now.
Kyler's not getting as much design stuff as Lamar is.
You know, I, I think Lamar leads both Daniels and Kyler as far as
how many design runs he's getting.
But both of these guys will really make the defense pay if
they're just going to sit back and leave a lot of space.
So I, I think both of them, especially with how weak the
commander's defense has been set up for a really fun back and
forth shootout game. But I mean, that's what I said
about Philly in New Orleans this last week.
We saw how that turned out. Yeah, And the, I, I guess the,
the Philly New Orleans one, we were, we were kind of expecting
Philly to be this bad defense because they, they gave up a
surprising amount of production to the Falcons the week before.
But then maybe, maybe it either is a solid defense or they're
solid against the run. And that's what New Orleans
wanted to do. Whereas I, I guess now we have a
little bit more data on, on these two defenses of them kind
of getting shredded that we can be a little bit more confident
that they are actually the ones that you want to attack.
Yeah. And and just to touch on the the
Philly and New Orleans game, I mean, that game had a potential
still to be a shootout. I know the the final box score
did not look like it, but I mean, really it was a couple bad
turnovers by the Eagles. But I think let the Saints
really like slow the game down and, you know, just be more
confident because if you don't have that Jalen Hurts
interception in the end zone, which to be fair to Jalen Hurts,
that was actually just a bad route by Devonta Smith.
Like he he just did like the cardinal sin that you can do as
a wide receiver, which is like turn and see the ball and then
be like, all right, I'm just going to wait here.
Hope it gets here on time and just left it open for Tyrion
Matthew to jump the route and and go ahead and take that away
in the end zone. That was pretty frustrating to
see as someone who was playing Hertz and Devon Smith in a lot
of places. And then you also had the Jalen
Hurts fumble later. So you just had stuff that, you
know, to stop points from getting on the board.
And then the Saints did not agree with, you know, our desire
of having that game be a a fast-paced, high scoring game.
And so they really kind of kind of soured that one.
But I mean, if I were looking for a way for I think both these
games that we've kind of touched on early with the, you know,
Cardinals and Commanders and the Bengals and the Panthers, both
of these ones, the way I really see them failing would be like
the Cardinals get out to an early lead and they're willing
to run the ball because they're, they're happy to give a lot of
carries to James Conner if they get the lead.
I want to look up the Cardinals PROE here.
And yeah, they have been a negative PROE team just -4%.
So, you know, if they can get to a lead, you know, only 52% pass
rate. So they are, they are willing to
to run the ball. So what you're really hoping for
there is that the commanders are going to get out to a lead and
push the Cardinals, right? What do?
You and I think that's a fair expectation, right?
Where like they, I, I think I saw something that the, the, the
commanders have not had to punt in like 2 weeks or something
like that. Yeah, two games that they
haven't had to punt. And then Daniels is like, he's
actually, he's so dynamic where he's a rusher, he's like a
productive troller. And, and and then they did add
this kind of deep ball option to their offense now, which so
they're they're stretched vertically as well.
I, I, I I think the way the game fails is if if like the
commanders have like this calm down game.
Yeah, I mean, really what you're just hoping for is Cliff
Kingsbury is willing to get out of the way this time.
Like he, he did it with Kyler where he did this horizontal
rate thing and it was just, you know, it, it left a lot to be
desired. We saw that through the 1st 2
games with Daniels who had the extremely low A dot, like not a,
you know, really the, the only reason that they weren't punting
in the second game was because when magic needed to happen,
Jayden Daniels, just like, I guess I'll go run for a first
down, you know, So I, I, I'm hopeful that after seeing
Daniels uncork it and you know, the report after the game was
that play to Terry Mclaurin. That was like the catch of the
season so far. I think it had something like,
you know, Amazon had it as a 10% catch probability for that
touchdown deep ball that, that Daniels hit him with.
But allegedly Terry Mclaurin asked Cliff Kingsbury if they
could, could have that play. And Cliff, you know, so
benevolently obliged and let his best players do the things that
they're best at. So.
That is, yeah, that is kind of interesting.
So I, I, I think you hit the nail on the head there that we
need, we need the commanders to push the Cardinals and, and and
that's the kind of base case like most likely outcome.
I I have a question for you and I this might be too galbering,
but when we think through these games and you know, we can, we
can kind of see like the path to failure for them.
Do you think it's too gal brain to kind of like skew the way
that you're playing the game to players that might be favored
even a little bit more if the specific path that you're
thinking is most beneficial for that that true ceiling outcome
for the game? Like, like for example, we're
saying, OK, we need, we need a big lead, you know, from the
commanders. To make.
Yeah, we need, we need them to be scoring.
So really you're. Probably better off playing a
true Daniels than OK right? Yeah, yeah, I think, I think
that's reasonable. The other thing I was going to
say is like, you probably really don't want to just play like a
a, a Cardinals thing without a bring back, right?
No. Or or even Cardinals and then
Zach Yerz like or something like or one of the kind of tertiary.
Right. That that that's probably like,
maybe that's going to be like a very conventional common
thinking, but that, that, that seems like a very reasonable way
to think about it. Like I actually, I I think that
won't end up being Galbarian at all.
And I think that might actually end up being like what people
think is like, OK, deep ball to McLaren is what unlocks this
game. So that's the stack that you
need and, and, and, and that being I, I could, I, I don't
know, I, I don't know for sure, but I could see that being like
the, the popular way to think about it.
OK. The next quarterback, we're kind
of branching out here talking about guys that are on the
fringe of this quadrant that we want our quarterbacks to be in.
Dak Prescott. I mean, really the game was it,
it was almost over before it started.
The Cowboys defense just can't stop anyone.
I mean, it, it played out exactly like we said it was
going to play out. Derrick Henry came in and ran
all over this putrid Cowboys rush defense and then they got
demoralized and just didn't stop anything all day.
It was. It was.
Not yeah, they're a dumpster fire.
Like they're same thing after being a dumpster fire against
the Saints, They're a dumpster fire against the Ravens.
The vibes seem really bad there for that Cowboys team and how
that pertains to that Prescott is.
So it looks like even even with the high pass rate that that
they have on the season, which looks like 70%, they're still
like new completely neutral pass rate over expectation.
And then they seem pretty average to below average on, on
the overall efficiency stuff. So to me that kind of strikes me
as like they've got a good quarterback on a bad team.
And so the volume, the the volume will will probably be OK
because they're going to be losing, but the efficiency is
going to struggle. There is is is my read.
Yeah, I, I don't know if you saw this stat, but did you see that
the Cowboys EPA per play for rushing plays is actually higher
than their EPA per play for passing plays?
And I don't know if you've subjected yourself to watching
every Cowboy snap, but I gotta tell you, the rushing plays
don't look great. Right.
Something must be going horribly, horribly wrong.
Yeah, I, I mean, I think a big part of it is there.
There's just so much passing volume.
They've been in desperation mode for multiple games now and so
you're just getting this huge amount.
You know Dak Prescott has 134 drop backs on the season like
compared to Kirk cousins, Kirk Cousins is at 90.
You know Justin Herbert is almost at 50% of the number of
drop backs Dak is at now. That's not fair because Herbert
missed a little bit of time. But I mean 134 drop backs.
I believe that leads. Oh Nope, I lied because we have
Deshaun Watson at 141 drop backs that I.
I see one here. So you're gonna I think that
that that does speak to volume on a bad team, but the QB is
good bringing that kind of efficiency to neutral over kind
of like yardage stuff. It probably it's probably low
because of socks and then interceptions and stuff like
that. But fantasy stuff like I think
it's been solid and then I know this isn't the tight end section
and and but that does that does feel kind of strong for those
kind of like secondary non CD Lam options who may not be like
great talents, but they're on a a team that is raft of talent.
And so some someone like Jake Ferguson can be a very big
beneficiary of that environment. Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
Moving on to we'll get out of the the good part of the chart
and look at some guys that you know, it just a, you know, a
week ago we're talking about how poor both of these guys have
been playing, but signs of life for both Bo Nix and Caleb
Williams. What do you think about these
guys going forward? How much of this was just like a
blip on the radar versus development?
What are your thoughts here? So starting with Caleb Williams,
I, I think if if you look at the some of the chose that he made,
they look really good and you can easily find some strong,
strong highlights of Caleb from that game.
And it's good to see that kind of development where they
started, kind of started off KG. He was struggled mightily week
1, even struggled Week 2 and then had some at least put some
good trolls on tape for weak tree.
I guess you have to give that caveat that they were playing
the Colts who don't have the best defense, so you have to
factor that in some. But it's definitely very
encouraging to see that groat and development from Caleb.
I guess the the problem overall, especially for fantasy, is that
the online is absolutely putrid. It is like God awful.
And then you have Odunze playing well and then it it looks like
Keenan Allen has plantar fasciitis.
So it might be a while before he's back.
And he does seem like an important piece for that team.
And then did I miss some? I think I missed something.
Is DJ Moore hurt or like did he get an injury?
Not. Not that I saw, no.
OK, maybe maybe maybe I I'm I'm mixing something up then.
And he at least seems like disaffected.
Yeah, I mean, so much of his production, that game just came
on, you know, the Hail Mary that ended up being what, a yard
short of a touchdown at half time.
I mean, I'll, I'll echo what you had to say about Caleb where
he's he's look, he's showing signs where he looks good.
The problem is just terrible offensive line and terrible
coaching. You know, fantasy, fantasy
football aside, the most frustrating thing that I, I keep
hearing is, oh man, I mean Caleb Williams, so much talent, but is
he coachable? You know, maybe he's not
listening and that's why he's not developing.
And that is like the most bullshit like protect Shane
Waldron, water carrying stuff I've ever heard.
Like any anyone that you hear that's saying something like
that is like an immediate unreliable narrator.
It it's pure like, I, I mean, I don't even really understand
why. Like what is the benefit to just
like out and out lying about this guy?
Like, oh, I mean, did you see on Hard Knocks?
He crossed his arms to one time when he was sitting in the in
the meeting room with Shane Waldron.
It was like or with Eberfluits, It's like, dude, right?
What like that is not the reason that Caleb he's not struggling
because he crossed his arms and had poor body language one time.
He's struggling because he's dealing with a couple
incompetent morons that are like just running him into the
ground. So I mean he might he might be
good enough to just overcome that and give us some really fun
fantasy stuff. That's what I.
Right, right. And we got, we got, we got a
solid week this week, right? Yeah.
On on like a million Dropbox. No, yeah, he was.
He was good. He was.
He was like a tournament winning quarterback before Dak Prescott
came in and did all the garbage time stuff.
But yeah, he was, he was very solid on DraftKings.
He was one of the best point per dollar plays.
OK. And, and then if we want to
switch it like I, I, I think we covered Caleb, if we want to
switch it over to Bone Nix. And he's another one where you,
you see the development, you see the improvement and, and he
looks better. He, he objectively looked a lot
better and or say I, I should say, subjectively looked better,
a lot better against the bucks. But that's another one where I
guess his outline is a little better and his time to throw is
a little is a little higher. And but the issue for him then
is they don't actually, they don't have a lot of receiving
weapons around them. Well, they might, but they just
never see the field. They never see the field.
So that that that's one where it's also like it's weak tree of
the rookie season. And I think somebody, I think
somebody mentioned that it took CJ Stroud like till week 12 or,
or something, something like that, something later in the
season to put up a Q B12 week so that they they they can continue
to develop. And, and I hope they do and then
and then eventually put up a bit more bigger big games.
But it it does look like they're going, they're both going
through at least some rookie struggles, especially Bo Nicks,
that are sort of compounded by coaching and and and and either
bad receiving weapons or, or or per O line.
Yeah, I think that is pretty well said.
So definitely, you know, we're we're leaving a light on for
both these guys could, could certainly develop into something
more fun. Nick's showing more rushing
upside was really interesting. That was a big part of the
reason I was happy to draft him cuz I I really thought you'd get
something with his legs there and then.
Anything else is gravy. The the most encouraging thing
to me was in the the previous games, the stuff that looked
really bad to me was just like the very off target and like who
was that two type throws farther down the field that were
happening? Or it's like, I don't, I don't
even know that he had his eyes open, you know, like he's
missing a receiver so badly or like throwing into like 3 is
like the three closest people to the ball were all defenders, you
know, on multiple throws in the first couple weeks.
I didn't really see hardly any of that this week.
And now I I didn't get to watch every snap from this game, but
the passes I did see look pretty sharp, like looked on target.
I mean, he's keeping the offense on schedule for the most part.
It was it was much better. It was a big improvement for
Nick. So another guy that I think is
in an interesting spot this week.
We kind of highlighted some, some fun games earlier where
both sides look good, but this guy gets to play Bonex and so
you might wind up with the the total of the game.
I, I, I mean, I don't look at the line at all, but my, so this
is just totally off the cuff, so take it with a, a healthy grain
of salt. But I would assume that the
market and, and Vegas, you know, people setting lines would
probably set this Broncos and Jets line too low just based on
the tendencies of both teams up to this point where you get 2
pretty bad games from Knicks and like bad games offensively for
the Broncos. And then you get one where, you
know, there's, there's glimmers of hope and kind of the same
thing for The Jets where they're really slow.
They're not passing a ton up until this last game when Rogers
finally starts to kind of open it up a little bit more, look a
little better. I'm wondering if we're seeing
both of these offenses begin to ascend a little bit and then you
also just for the fun narrative aspect of it.
This is Aaron Rodgers first chance now.
Now, The Jets really, really stuck it to the Broncos and Sean
Payton last year to try and get some revenge for Nathaniel
Hackett, as Sean Payton infamously had some not very
nice things to say about Nathaniel Hackett last year.
So The Jets already got their revenge.
But Aaron Rodgers, who is quite possibly the pettiest
quarterback in the league, may feel like he really needs to to
be heard in the, you know, this, this revenge game where.
He well, I, I, I think it is interesting and, and, and your
note had kind of been where the, the, the the first two games
kind of being average where they just him shaking off the rust.
So it is interesting that he popped for 9.2 adjusted yards
per attempt against a pretty good Patriots defense who had
like it. It will have that guy Christian
Gonzalez. They they they a good defensive,
a good secondary. So it is interesting that he
played so well. And then they also had 40 drop
backs, which in a game where they were kind of they led true
at the whole game. It it didn't ever feel like the
game was in doubt. And then they still have 40 drop
backs. Is that is kind of like
encouraging. Now I don't know how much of
that is just the the Patriots ineptitude.
And, and, and just giving up a, a, a large play count to the
other team. And but that is, that is pretty
interesting. And yeah, yeah, that, that, that
is an interesting game. The the, the only thing I'd say
is so the Broncos, they also have a, a pretty good defense,
right Where they have a good, they have Patrick Surtan, they
that that's a solid defense. Yeah, absolutely.
And the other thing is like, even though Nix is looking
better, you mentioned it earlier, what what weapons do
the Broncos really have? I mean, if you're looking to to
play this game with a a bring back on the Broncos side, like
the only viable option to me is Sutton really right, just
because he's he's getting the majority of the target volume.
But like you're not going to play a Lil Jordan Humphrey or a
Josh Reynolds or like I I mean, it's encouraging that you're
getting a little more Troy Franklin now, but it seems to be
at the expense of Mims where I think I think we would all love
to see a three wide receiver set of Sutton Mims and Franklin.
It seems like that is just not in the cards, but.
That is not how they see this team.
No. So I, I, yeah, I, I think it's
thin for this game to be nuclear, but I, I see the path
is, is what I'm saying, and I think it might go overlooked.
Yeah, Yeah, that, that makes sense.
That makes sense for sure. So looking at Troy Franklin, he
had a, he had a 30% rat rate last week.
So did Marvin Mims. And then Marvin Mims, he had a
13% Tiger rat rate, sorry, I should say 30% right, right last
week. And then Mims is up from 13% in
Week 2 and 16% in, in week 1. So I guess it, it does feel like
those guys are ticking up that they are seeing a bigger share
of the fields, but that is like that's, that's true kind of
rotational wide receiver level usage unfortunately.
Yeah. Moving on to there's, there's
two guys that I think have been. OK.
Sorry, just one more thing I want to point out.
It looks like that Troy Franklin had a 42% target run on those
routes. So we only had 12 routes and
then he had five targets. I guess we're not at the wide
receiver section, but that's that's kind of interesting.
Yeah, I did. I did see, I know one of them
was just like a real short like little manufactured screen to
him. Oh yeah, yeah, the yardage is
not there, unfortunately. I think, I mean, if you can just
get the guy on the field, Beau Nix is his college quarterback.
Like the shower narrative is strong there and the competition
is like there's no competition. So all you need is can Troy
Franklin play just a little I I think really.
Right. The only barrier is that the
dude, you can't catch passes from the bench.
And so once he's on the field, I, I trust Beau Nix to to try
and get it to him. I mean, who knows, maybe Peyton
will put the the targets per out run is also encouraging that
maybe Peyton is is scheming him the ball more when he's on the
field. So definitely leaving a light on
for the late Broncos. Troy Franklin Bonex stacks
there. There could be something there,
but it did want to, it did want to move on to a couple guys that
we were concerned about on this chart, and that's CJ Stroud and
Trevor Lawrence. I mean, I think I personally
think Lawrence is a little bit more concerning just because you
have his coach already talking about like we could see a
quarterback change what he just gave this guy $55 million a
year. It's Week 3 and we're talking
about benching Trevor Lawrence. Like that seems really bad to
me. But between Stroud and Lawrence,
can you talk about those? Yeah.
So Stroud and I think you kind of hinted on and he has, he has
not played the most efficiently and he's at just seven point and
one adjusted yards per attempt. But I don't I don't see, I see
honestly a decent amount of positive things here as well
where they're at 1% and pass rate over expected, over
expected. So just a little bit of both
neutral. So we are actually getting some
kind of volume from him. And then the, the, the online
looks solid. His, his time, the throat looks
solid. So to me, that's something where
it's, it's, it's really hard to put your finger on why, why the,
the efficiency's been so average.
But I do think with these kind of pocket pastor types that you
do get, you do get kind of like swings in their efficiency.
And so like not panicking on on CJ Stroud and then by extension,
still pretty, pretty hopeful about pass catchers outside of
Nico, and then still still pretty hopeful about Tank Dale.
OK. And then for the the Trevor
Lawrence stuff, are you are you hopeful there or is this, I
mean, to me it's reading like lost season for the Jaguars like
it seems. Yeah, it's a it's a, it's a true
lost season. I think like it's you still have
a lot of the same issues that we kind of noted at last week where
like the O line isn't great, that the receivers are dropping
passes. The coach seems off as prime and
and and then that manifests itself in in bad passing
efficiency stats overall. So like, I think Trevor Lawrence
himself as a quarterback is probably at least close, pretty
close to league average starter level.
So I, I, I think he's probably fine career wise, but this is a
bad Jags team. This is a bad Jaguars team.
And and then we're talking about something someone who's
predominantly, not just solely, but predominantly a pocket
passer that's going to manifest itself in some bad passing
efficiency, overall team efficiency.
So I know we, I've some, I have some manage teams with, I have
one manage team with some of the legendsary upside guys where we,
where we took Trevor Lawrence as their starter.
We took him late, but we are, we're very much panicked about
who our starter is going to be the the rest of the way.
Like we, we're not, we're not feeling, we're feeling very
uncomfortable with the prospect of starting them.
Yeah. I, I mean, that seems
reasonable. All right.
I think that's all the guys we needed to touch on on the
quarterback chart, unless you had anyone you wanted to mention
before we move on to ARP. No, no, let's we are 49 minutes
in. We.
Are right down and we did get some talk in but other
positions, but so this is our our our running back snaps and
usage. So kind of focused on on on
who's on the field for the important plays.
So on the green bar, that's the percentage of team plays that is
rush attempts to that player. Yellow is percentage of those
team plays where they are running a route.
And then we have the kind of blocking stats.
We don't really care about run blocking, but we want to finish
out and then pass blocking. It's not fantasy relevant, but
it's good to see who's trusted as a pass blocker.
Like you can see here, if we didn't have these, you would you
would think, oh, Devin signatory, he's not actually
playing that much. But then you see actually, no, a
lot of he's actually pass blocking pass pro in a lot of
his team's drop backs. And it's great actually that
they trust him with that, that that kind of entrenches him in
that role. But it it it that that's why
he's only at 50% fantasy kind of useful snaps despite being a
clear starter. Yeah, I mean the the singletary
role has been fantastic. You know, in in spite of only
having about 50% useful snaps, it's been really good.
But the guy who has the best role in all of fantasy, just
like he did last year is Kyron Williams.
And so I from from this point going forward, anything that
Sean McVay says to me about like I really need to lighten the
load for this guy or I need to can't, can't keep hiring out
there for 80% of Snatch, 90% of Snap is just an outright lie
because. There's he's lying to himself as
well. Yeah, there's a difference
between what someone tells you and what they show you.
And the Rams have shown us like they just love Kyron Williams.
Like he. He makes their offense go
apparently and and actually no, that not just apparently he was
important for their offense. Yeah, so Kyron, incredible role.
I mean, he's been he was one of the guys I was really
aggressively targeting in dog bowls last week and that that
worked out pretty well, except I couldn't get him on any of the
the right teams didn't have him with the right combinations.
But I think he's underpriced again this week, man.
Like the role is just so good. And and I think people are
scared off because the offense might be gross, but it's like
the offense can be gross. It's just one got the got this
guy is the offense. So.
It doesn't really. Matter how gross it is when you
get an. Entire you, you have a running
back with 90% snapshare and then he's actually good on top of it
that that's a pretty potent combination and like turn around
late second round was not the correct price.
Like I like Devin Singletary because of how good his role is,
right. And and I I think that, you
know, his team is just as bad offensively as the giants are.
Like the Giants are only functional because of Malik
neighbors And and you know, even then it's arguable if they're
functional or if it's just like Malik neighbors is to the Giants
what Kyron Williams is to the Rams.
Like he's what's making the offense go and Singletary's just
getting this incredible role there.
Kyron's role is even better and he is the focal point of the
offense where Singletary's just a compliment to Malik neighbors.
So Kyron, I mean, unless he's starting to go like top five,
you know, every week in in BR drafts, he's underpriced.
Like it's just. Right, right, right.
Agreed. OK, we're going to need to have
a brief moment of capitulation and a funeral for all the best
of all teams that we drafted without Saquon Barkley because I
don't and like while we I'm I'm wanting to capitulate because
people who are drafting Saquon Barkley are getting the outcome
that was really good for them and like it.
It's clear that the I mean, I don't think that you or I we.
Need an injury to to survive and say Quin Berkeley.
Unfortunately, like all all of the metrics are good and he's
like he's he's on the field for what at 68% of of that are
useful snaps. Oh, sorry, 80%.
I'm trying to move on already 80% snap rate.
The the what you call it his, his watch, his online is like
playing incredible that they're like they're the 5th best run
run blockings rate. And then I was kind of like the
one thing that kind of I, I was kind of holding on to was that a
lot of the time when he got into these one on ones, the other
player was, was winning. And, and I'm like, kind of like,
you know, he's not like he's not a peak, kind of like top peak of
his powers, top prime athlete. And that will matter eventually
at running back. What what kind of forced me to
capitulate is if you look at he's actually got the, the the
second fastest and ball carrier speed on on the season now
behind just Nico Collins. And that granted that's on a 65
yard rushing touchdown. So he should get up there and
speed, but the combination of online playing credible and then
still pretty solid top end speed, unless you get some kind
of wear and tear or injury, it's going to be tough.
But Adam, unfortunately. Yeah.
And I, I don't think that either of us were saying like this was
an impossible outcome for him. We just thought it was probably
more thin than it is. I mean, and who knows exactly
how thin it was, but I, I certainly think that we probably
underestimated the likelihood of this outcome.
We, I, I, I think it was closer to assuming he was going to have
to run hot on touchdowns to pay off his stack.
And now? He's had some, he's had some
pretty weak years on peripherals, on efficiency,
right? And then people say, well,
shouldn't you have predicted that him going from the Giants
to to the Eagles would have this boost in efficiency?
But then you see Singletary actually playing relatively
efficiently for the Giants too. So it's not like they're like
this abysmal, like can't work offense and where the the
running back can't do anything. So like there's still some level
of meaning to those peripheral stats, but you kind of do have
to focus on him looking pretty incredible through the 1st 2
weeks now. Yeah, and I, I have not, I
haven't checked these stats yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if
Singletary's peripherals with the Giants right now are better
than Saquon's peripherals when he was with the Giants.
You know, he, he looked, Saquon looked 'cause I, I always made
this comparison of Singletary over the last few years, had
better peripherals than Saquon over the last few years while he
was on. And so I, I think it was
reasonable to believe that Saquon might just be done.
But maybe we, we were a little too confident that he was done
because he definitely looks like he might be a season defining
player right now. That's all the Saquon crow that
we'll be eating. Congratulations.
If you have him on a lot of teams, I hope it goes well for
you. The other guys here that I think
were were worth mentioning, not a lot of like huge changes to
roles, just the notes that I had.
The answer The answer is yes. Singletary is playing better
this year for the Giants, and Barkley was before.
So here's the real question if we got Devin Singletary on the
Eagles. Oh my God, it'd be unstoppable.
The legendary season of all legendary seasons.
Probably many a second. I on ironically, I think yes, I
think Saquon would be like a perfect fit for the for the
Eagles and it would be unstoppable.
Yeah, I mean, Singletary probably doesn't get to deliver
the explosive plays like Saquon does, but man, if you gave
Singletary the volume that Saquon's getting in that Eagles
offense, like I think he'd, he'd have an extremely high success
rate. He kind of he's like not, I know
he he doesn't have like true top end top end speed, but he he has
a lot of breakaway runs. So like he he wouldn't, he
probably wouldn't get quite as many yardage, but he'd have a
lot more of them is what I would think.
Yeah, anyway, that's just still a little bit of Saquon cope for
us. The the thesis was correct, we
just got a bad run out is what we're telling ourselves.
We just run bad. We ran bad.
OK, I want a rapid fire through some of these notes because a
lot of these roles didn't change massively, but it's just stuff
that I felt like was worth mentioning.
Charbonnet is an elite touch consolidator as long as Walker
is out. If if we get any news at any
point this season where the Walker injury is like, oh, this
might be something he deals with the whole year or he's he's
coming back. But we're we're really going to
have to be careful with it. Like if there's risk of, you
know, the injury becoming prolonged or him missing even
more time, like Charbonnay is an elite, elite touch consolidator.
Like the guy is just getting all of the work so.
That's it. Does it does make me wonder.
So if and when Walker comes back, like Sharps might actually
have a pretty solid standalone role.
I, I think he could, he could flip him to be the touch leader
on the team and have Walker do what Walker is best at, which is
those like home run. Really what what the what the
Seahawks are doing or what we hope they will be doing is I
want them to recreate Saquon Barkley in the aggregate with
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbenet, where Zach Charbenet
does the bell cow stuff and Kenneth Walker Subs in for the
big breakaway plays. So what you're saying is that
Sharps will be the plotter, where on all the plays where
Saquon Barkley looks bad, that's Charbonnay, but then the one
play where Saquon gets a breakaway run, that's kind of
Walker? Exactly that.
Yeah, that's sorry. I for a second I thought I'd mix
it up, but I didn't. Sorry.
I interrupted, rapid fire. You're fine.
I wasn't even. I wasn't going rapidly enough,
clearly. OK, Henry finally made it on the
starters chart. It's because they were just
absolutely pushing the Cowboys turns and so he got to run more.
His role is the same. No, no change in the role.
It's just hey, if you're in a positive game script, Henry
eats. It's the classic Derek Henry
role, right? So nothing, nothing new there.
Zach Moss still really strong role, had a strong performance.
Chase Brown though finally starting to look a little bit
better, got a little bit more work last night.
Wondering if this could be a sell high window on Moss if the
Chase Brown genie can't go back in the bottle and he makes it
more of a true split. So here's here's what's
interesting about the about the the the Zac Moss Chase brown
stuff. It it looks like Zac Moss is
still getting the majority of the snaps.
Like even even just last night he was still at 67% useful snaps
between routes and then rush attempts.
But for Chase Brown, when he is on the field, he's usually, it's
usually to give him the ball and had 8.1 expected, expected
points despite only having a 20% useful snapshare, which I, I
think that, that, that, that to me that's super interesting.
Yeah. I mean it just kind of reads
like maybe they trust Moss to do more of like the pass blocking
stuff. You know, just like kind of be
be out there guy, you know, and chase Brown is more intentional
where if Brown is on the field, we want to use this guy.
He's he's more of a weapon. Moss is like the innings eater
type guy and and Brown is more of like the all right, let's
let's get this guy the ball. So interesting.
For sure. Chuba, Chuba Hubbard's role
looking pretty good as like a really strong kind of stopgap
player in in manage leagues until you get Brooks in there.
Just with the overall ascension of the offense now that the
stench of Bryce Young is off of it.
And then we can let's see, I think both of these go, Oh no,
we've got Jerome Ford on here. Jerome Ford still losing work to
four men. They both those guys seem
entirely dead to me. They're cannibalizing each
other. The offense is bad.
They're passing a bunch. That's like the lone bright spot
in the Browns offense. But they have a quarterback that
can't pass it. So, you know, that's the the
flying ointment there. And then neither of these
running backs are good. And so when they both eat into
each other's volume, it's just really, really painful.
Neither, neither guy at all useful here.
And then we can go to the backups here because the last
note that I had was Zeke Elliott.
It it might, it might be over before it even began for Zeke
Elliott Dallas Cowboys reunion tour here because he is.
He's losing work to Dowdell. Dowdell getting more and more
work each week. I, I think Thursday against the
Giants is really going to be telling for Zeke.
What you need for Zeke to have any kind of sign of life in, you
know, for any kind of format is he needs to have a spike in his
usage here. Because if it continues to trend
down and, and Dowdle is trending up, then I, I think it's really,
really bad for Zeke. Zeke only had a 20% snapshare.
Yeah, the Cowboys are doing what they told us in the offseason,
what all the beat reporters that I, I think are the most plugged
in Cowboys beat reporters are telling us.
Which to me, I when I first heard it, I kind of interpreted
it as well. Well, let me like tell you what
they were saying 1st and then I'll explain it.
So they were saying that they expected the Cowboys to use a
full on committee at running back.
And when they said full on committee, they met every guy
with a running back designation on their team and even a couple
without. They were thinking Dowdle, Zeke,
Deuce, Vaughn, even Cavante Turpin lining up in the back,
Hunter Luke, Hunter Luke, their fullback getting and and I
thought, you know, kind of parsing that out was OK.
Like these guys will mix in for a carry here and there.
But it's mostly gonna be the Dowdel and Zeke show.
But it's definitely gonna be a committee.
The beat reporters were spot on. It's literally all it's like 5
dudes getting back to work there.
It's pretty gross. I think what you're hoping for,
for fantasy relevance, is that Dowdle can I, I think the only
one live to consolidate a useful running back role for the
Cowboys is Dowdle. But it's looking much thinner,
you know. Thankfully, he was.
Really. Rico Dowdle was the was the the
top running back last game, but he was still only on the field
45% of the time. Right.
That so that's that that translated to 11.6% expected
points. So like that's a that's a zero
RB startable week. This I guess not not quite with
the per efficiency, but there there's some there's something
there for Rico, but this is definitely like it.
When I stopped drafting Zeke this this is kind of what I
started envisioning where like he he he come out the gate with
this high touch count suck. So not score that many points
and then get the ball taken away from him.
And I, I, I think that's what's happening.
I I think that's the correct read here.
And I mean, really the funniest part about it is like, this is
kind of exactly the thesis Pat laid out in in his Rico Dowdle
article. Or is like, even if you're
wrong, it's OK 'cause you're paying for a guy to get you like
8 or 9 points a game in the range that he goes like, and now
we're getting it and we're like, this sucks.
It's like, well, yeah, that that was what was like, expected.
And we're just hoping, we're hoping to be wrong.
And there is a little upside there.
I mean, if you want the like silver lining or copium, if
you're sitting on a bunch of Rico Dowdle, he's definitely the
favorite to consolidate the volume in the backfield.
I just don't know how much consolidation there is to be
done. Really.
What you're hoping is the Cowboys offense can improve,
which we saw this last year as well.
Now it manifested in a different way last year.
So it this might just be like some shitty pattern matching,
but the Cowboys offense wasn't great through the 1st.
I I think all the way through there by I think it was like all
the way. Through Yeah, yeah, it took it
took until after by and then they started spamming targets to
CD Lamb and all of a sudden they're good again.
They they self scout and they're like, Oh yeah, we got to throw
the CD Lamb this year. It feels a little bit more like
CD Lamb has been intentionally removed by good defenses, like
they're really right, right away.
They said when we stop CD Lam, this team sucks, let's do that.
And they're right. So you just have to, if you're
hoping for something more out of Rico dowdle #1 is like, well,
this is what we should have expected in the 1st place.
But #2 is you're just really hoping the Cowboys can figure
out something on offense that is not entirely garbage time,
because that's all the offense is right now.
For the Cowboys, it's just garbage time.
Yeah. So last thing that on this chart
that was kind of surprising to me was this kind of low usage
rate for Braille and Allen. So your eyes do not deceive you
even even them even look looking just at last week, he was on his
fantasy useful snap rate was like 26%.
And what's kind of interesting and he still actually produced
so that that actually translated to 11 rush attempts and eight
routes. And so he actually got 10
expected points in that game, but I think that was just
because of a large play volume count for The Jets.
So to me, to me, that lens to still like, I think you have to
be really stuck to be starting Braille and Allen.
And then in kind of best ball stuff, you you either need him
to force much more of a committee and he certainly
could. He's he's he looks fantastic or
Ram or an injury or something like that or or these kind of
like really high play count games for The Jets.
So that's something that I wasn't expecting and a take
away. I wasn't expecting coming away
from this game after watching it.
But I think it is kind of important that he right now in
the current split, he needs a high, he needs a high play count
game for The Jets to be relevant.
Yeah, not particularly useful right now, but just incredible
contingent upside. Yeah, of course.
I mean, I think we we said this last.
Right D handcuff. D Handcuff.
Top top five talented running back in the league already and
I'll, I'll go to war with anyone on that one.
I, I, he's extremely good. So the the rest of the NFL just
fumble the bag tremendously. Not drafting this guy.
It is so infuriating for him to be stuck on The Jets behind
Breece Hall cuz it it is kind of impossible to usurp Breece Hall
because that guy also. That then that's Breece Hall.
He so he. So let me let me change this.
At last week he was at just 56% useful snap rate with an overall
at 68% snap rate, which is honestly that that's fine.
And then 63% useful 27% on for the three weeks that's fine.
But I think if you're paying that top five pick you, you were
certainly hoping for more than that, and that might be
disguised by a higher play count as well.
Yeah, I think the snap rate is obfuscating the usage though for
Breeze Hall, which we can go to the next chart and kind of
because Breeze is averaging 16 carries a game just about and
seven targets a game. So when you adjust the the
targets for adjusted opportunities, it's you just
multiply targets by two 'cause they're about twice as valuable
as a carry. Barice Hall is getting 30
adjusted opportunities a game that like that's, that's insane.
There's a reason why he is all the way up here just about at
the 20 expected fantasy points per game line.
I think it's closer to 15 though on like a a normalized jets snot
count is what I'm saying, Or, or maybe it's 17, but it's it's I
don't think it's 20. I don't think it's touching 20
if if they don't have as many play count as they as they did.
I mean, I think part of it though is just like in the games
where they are more like when it when it's on the line and they
really need to win. I don't, I don't think that
they're going to take Breece off the field quite as much.
But in a game where you're just lacking the Patriots, like
you're very happy to get Braylon Allen looks great.
Like, if I'm the one who's making personnel decisions for
The Jets, I'm very happy to get Braylon Allen in the game,
especially when we're in a situation where we're salting it
away, you know, but. You're not.
You're, you're. So I, I just counted up.
They had they had 70 offensive plays against the Patriots.
So are you saying then in a game where it's closer to 50 that
those are just coming almost directly from Braylon Allen
where he so he had he had 19 hit like 21 of those 70 snaps?
Are you saying that it goes to 50 and then it's more like 40°?
Just an overall stop count? 10 to Braylon.
Yeah, proportionately, Braylon loses a larger proportion of his
snaps and braces his snaps. I think, you know, there's a lot
of these coaches where we think that they're not the sharpest
tools in the shed. But I do think that, you know,
the The Jets are aware of like, OK.
Is that correct, though? If if you have two incredible
talents and like all these coaches are like, yeah, we want
to keep our guys fresh. Like do do you just like, Oh
yeah, Braylon, you're great, but you're riding pine for most of
this game. Well, he was going to ride pine
for most of the game, but you're only getting 10 snaps.
Like we got to get preset there. Well, I mean 1010 snaps in A50,
you know, 50 play game like you said, that's that's a 20% snap
rate, which would be consistent with what he got in the last
game, right? And no, I think he was closer to
30. OK, 32.
OK, well, yeah, we'll we'll see how it plays out.
All that to say, I'm not terribly concerned about Brees
just because he gets so much like the the guys.
Yeah, yeah, I'm not worried about a bad season for him, but
I am worried about it being the potential to to it being like
just a little bit lower even in a Goodyear a little bit lower
than kind of like the the legendary season.
Yeah, that's that's reasonable. Other guys worth pointing out on
this chart, Aaron Jones still being super efficient.
Aaron Jones in a good offense. He's looking like a really big
win. I think in general, like in the,
you know, daily and weekly fantasy formats, the market is
kind of caught up to the fact that, Oh yeah, we should be
pricing this guy like he's he's one of the better running backs
in the league. He he seems like he's getting
pretty reasonably priced. I'm seeing him go like, you
know, second round of the dog bowl right now, which feels
pretty appropriate. Other the the guys down there
like the really efficient weeks from Derrick Henry and Jonathan
Taylor, certainly helping them with the multiple touchdown week
from Taylor and Henry getting the really, really sweet matchup
against the Cowboys. But when you look at where
they're at on the chart, it's like you got David Montgomery,
Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Romander Stevenson, Devin
Singletary all kind of cluster together in like a pretty
similar fantasy point, expected fantasy point per game range.
So I think the biggest difference is you have some
crazy ceiling with Taylor and Henry.
That's probably a lot harder for the guys like Singletary and
Montgomery and Stevenson to get to.
But you know, as far as like your, your median outcome for
those guys, it's just not, not that exciting for their cost,
but their ceiling is fantastic. So in any given rate, those guys
can go off. Right, Yeah, I, I, I agree for
sure. And it, it, I'm get kind of
getting the vibe of like when people saying it's the year of
the running back, it's the year of right now.
It's it's it's the month of two or three running backs.
Yeah, I'm becoming substantially less concerned with it being the
year of the running back quote, UN quote.
Yeah. I'm concerned it's the year of
the Sequan like that's. I'm really concerned that it's
the year of the Sequan. That's the spot where I'm like,
yeah, this one might actually really hurt me.
I mean, if it's if he keeps doing what he's doing right now,
which go ahead and flip to the next chart because I want to
show Saquon here and there's another guy on this chart.
I want to like if he keeps doing what he's doing here, it's it's
almost a situation where if you have 0% Saquon, go ahead and
take your expected advance rate of 16.667% and don't quite cut
it in half, but get close. You know, cuz those Saquon teams
are advancing baby. If you're in a pod with a Saquon
team, which every pod has one, one of those spots is already
locked up if he keeps doing what he's doing.
So definitely concerning. Yeah, I, I, I have 0% Saquon and
pretty close to what you say my expected advance ratio.
Not quite half, but getting there.
Yeah. Guy, guy that I wanted to point
out here, DeAndre Swift, you can, you can see him.
He's in the the 10 to 15 expected fantasy point range.
He's just kind of right in the middle of the chart.
You can see Zach Charbonnay's big pink bubble.
DeAndre Swift with the comically small bubble posting.
I don't know if I've ever seen this before.
We saw it with Joe Mixon. The 0% success rate. 0% success
rate, that's incredible. Yeah, 0% success rate, which
almost makes me think like, man, if I got all those opportunities
now granted I die after one opportunity on an NFL field, you
know, like. Yeah, it would be the
opportunity to die. I don't get.
Suicide by NFL. Like DeAndre slept to see, but
I'm like, I wonder like if I was invincible and I could just take
the 15 opportunities without, like could I have higher than a
0% success rate? Could I have one run be counted
as successful? Like maybe, just maybe, you
know, is my feeling. If you just got regenerated
after every carry. Yeah, like I die.
It's it's kind of like the day after tomorrow, Like you're just
dying over and over every play. But you, you wake up in the
backfield and they're snapping it too.
I like to think that my field vision's probably OK enough that
I could I could turn one of those into a success.
I die upon being tackled. Yeah.
DeAndre Swift Cuttable in all formats, yes.
Yeah, yeah. I mean.
I've heard people say like, don't cut him just yet.
He's still getting so much opportunity.
Listen, if you're in a managed league, you want your opponents
to start DeAndre Swift. Like I just, I promise you he
just got one of the better matchups he's going to get this
year against the Colts and he turned in a 0% success rate.
Like get him on your opponent's teams as quick as you possibly
can. Just just RIP the Band-Aid off
like. Yeah, so he scored six points.
I mean, I have points where I have teams where I'd love 6
points. That's, that's fair, non
derogatory, that's fair. A guy, another guy who's just
had a really bad go of it looking terrible.
Now the other thing is DeAndre Swift was losing work to Roshan
Johnson, like Roshan Johnson. Almost.
Yeah, that is the other piece. It's like maybe it's going away,
maybe it's bad now and it's getting worse.
And I, I, I mean, my, my take on Roshan was always kind of that
he was of the Charbenet mold where he could be a consolidator
because he can do everything. He's a bigger body guy.
He's not going to like wow you on tape.
But he looked, I mean, this the carries that I saw for Swift
versus the carries I saw for Roshan.
When I watched Roshan, I was like, I mean, give this guy the
ball. Like, it's not super special,
but it's way better than the alternative.
So in that same vein is Rashad White, who even his coach is now
saying like, oh, yeah, Bucky Irving deserves more work.
I mean, Rashad White just getting completely outclassed as
a rusher. But his saving grace is that he
is still a very competent receiver.
I mean, man, Rashad White is just like not late stage it.
It's like if you took, you know, Leonard Fournette on his season
with the Bucks where he was like, he can be out there and
get carries and get targets and like do none of it well, but it
doesn't matter because he's just getting the volume and he'll
score touchdowns. Like that's that's kind of like
how Rashad White is, but not scoring as many touchdowns and
like surprisingly even worse than Leonard Fournette as a
rusher, but like a little bit better as a passer.
So it's like when you Frankenstein all of that
together, do you still just get something not super appealing?
Right. And the other thing about White
was he was an older rookie because I think he I think it
took him a while to figure it out in college.
So like, even though he's only just kind of arrived, he like he
turns 26. It's not, it's not that old.
It's really not, but it's not young.
So I think that I think that's kind of relevant too.
Yeah, a really quick note that I wanted to have on Naji Harris
here. You I mean it's not efficient,
it's not pretty, but Jalen Warren got pulled from the game
because Tomlin said that he didn't look right out there goes
for an MRI on the knee no structural damage.
So kind of reading the tea leaves there sounds like
probably like a minor knee sprain or maybe maybe some
bruising or but something is not right with Jalen Warren right
now. You know maybe compensation
injury from the hamstring before the season.
But man, I mean as. Vice president of the Jalen
Warren Fan club. I won't.
I won't take the president roll away from Pat.
He'd be mad at me. But as vice president of the
Jalen Warren fan. Club.
I think he bet you haven't. No, actually.
It's yeah, it's not a popular club currently.
I mean I'm still holding out hope because he was starting to
flip Naji already for work before the injury stuff and so.
Right. He was.
He was actually a workhorse in the first half is what?
So I think so many tweeted that, that he's a workhorse in the
first half. And then they say, oh, there's
something not right here. So they talk about and I, I
don't read that too negatively because so I, I, I, maybe I
mentioned this too much, maybe I don't mention enough.
So I did coach and one of the things about coaching players is
that they will hide and lie to you about injuries because they
want to play. And it's part of your job to
figure that out when that's happening and to protect them
from themselves. So like, it's possible that he's
like, oh, this guy looks bad now, so I'm not going to play
him. But I, I, I, I think it's also
pretty likely that after kind of an extended absence, that Warren
just wanted to play. He, he wasn't going to tell
anyone. And they're like, OK, we, we,
we, we need you healthy bud. Like you, you need to get right.
Yeah, so hopeful that Warren can get right and then deliver down
the stretch. I mean truly could be the
comeback of all comebacks for people down tremendously bad
right now in their basketball portfolios the the other.
Guys. Yeah, that that that was
specifically talking about me, another guy near Naji on the
chart. So he's mentioning all that for
Naji because he might see some increased work this week.
The whole if if you heard like Naji was in a sling after the
game, sounds like that's a complete non issue.
Should be good to go, Brian. Brian Robinson, another guy who
sets up for potential workload increase with Austin Eckler
getting the concussion in with a a slightly shorter week playing
on Monday night. So Brian Robinson and what we
highlighted is a potential really high scoring game and and
Robinson is is competent as a receiver and they're willing to
lean on him as you know, a a bell cow without Eckler.
I I think Robinson could set up as a smash this week.
Unfortunately, I've kind of seen people getting Privy to that
already. I've been trying to like push
him late in in the dog bowls and I I keep getting sniped on him.
So I think it might just if you're watching this live right
now and you're playing, you know, underdog battle royales or
the dog bowl, this is your call to go.
Like, you know, while you're listening to this, fire up a
bunch of drafts, grab all the Brian Robinson that you can
right now because the price will rise.
The price is going to rise substantially later this week as
we get news about the Eckler injury and his availability and
as we get projections out on this extremely high total gain.
Right. Last guy that I wanted to talk
about here was Josh Jacobs. I want to start this with the
caveat that I'm probably a little biased on Josh Jacobs
because I had this conversation with some guys that do the
weekly rankings over at leg up and I was I was kind of Pooh
poohed that this this analysis was maybe incorrect or maybe
just me being a hater, but Jacobs looked pretty bad to me.
Emmanuel Wilson looked like the better runner and, and I didn't
think it was close. Like if if it was like, oh,
maybe it was just like I I thought it was like going away.
If you just take the name plates away and you watch these two
guys, you'd be like, yeah, that guy is, is the way better
running back. Like I don't know who the other
guy is, but I don't know why they have them on the field.
The. The deal we have, yeah, we are
haters, we right. Let's read out some numbers.
So Josh Jacobs fantasy points over expected last week,
negative 7.8 Emmanuel Wilson fantasy points over expected
plus 7.6. I'm, I'm, I'm guessing that's
what you saw on on. Yeah, it was.
Also Jacobs had a pretty poor success rate.
I believe it was 31%. Not ideal.
Bad rush yards over expected Which?
And 39% on the year too. So it's not like it that that's
some outlier. And 3039% though is, is
reasonable, like 40% is kind of the threshold for like, you
know, OK, good. And and also like you're playing
with Malik Willis as your quarterbacks, like maybe they're
able. To it's it's Kenneth Walker
esque because Kenneth Wasker is 38.9 on the year.
Yeah, so I mean, I I got. When you're a plotter, it's not
good enough. You need to be a home runner, a
home run hitter to to be at 40% I think.
Yeah, let me let me I'm going to recite some of the bowl case
that was given to me by the Josh Jacobs defenders.
But Jacobs better and rush yards over expected per attempt on the
year on more volume than Wilson had a higher rate of 15 plus
mile per hour runs. I don't think that's relevant at
all, especially. Not in the sample size.
Sample for Wilson, Yeah, you're, you're literally just asking
like how many long runs did the guy get that?
That doesn't move the needle for me at all.
But Jacobs with a higher PFF rush grade, a higher breakaway
rate, again, breakaway rate on the sample for Wilson, I don't
think is going to be too sticky there.
Jacobs also saw a higher rate of stacked boxes.
But yeah, so there there was some pushback to my Josh Jacobs
hating. I will just say I'm trying to
get ahead of this. I think that I would not be
surprised at all if over the next few weeks we see Jacobs
kind of trend away, especially after you get Jordan Love back,
have this turn into the more typical the floor pure split
backfield he you. I have to say that's incredible
cope of like, Oh well, he's not playing that well, but his rush
yards over expected per attempt is slightly better than Emmanuel
Wilson. Like that's not great.
And, and I mean, there's no way you'll be able to guess who this
is from because it came from legendary player Hater himself,
Sam Sherman, who I thought would surely be on my side hating Josh
Jacobs. But I think it might be all the
time he spends with Hayden Winx as Josh Jacobs pilled him, so
his judgement may be clouded here.
I, I kind of think like that's maybe that's not enough of like,
oh, they're going to bench Josh Jacobs.
I don't. No, no.
That's not what you're saying. Like, hey, this, this is a
committee and it might become close to 5050.
That's that's all that I'm saying.
I'm not. Saying Josh, I think that feels
pretty reasonable. It's just, you know, that
Lafleur wants that too. Like that's all this is the guy
who like didn't play Derrick Henry when he had him.
You know, he he was keeping Derrick Henry in like a true
timeshare. So I just I think that it's not
unreasonable to say that Jacobs doesn't look incredible.
Wilson is at the very least comparable to him and like
arguably looks better. But you know, could go either
way. I just think we might see this
usage for Jacobs start to trickle off a little bit.
And I think the extremely high carry count from Week 2 was more
of just a side effect of like, oh God it's our first game
without Jordan love like. I I mean, that's game plan
stuff. Yeah, they built the plane
around Josh Jacobs Week 2. And so that's that's.
The one I, I, I, I bet a higher proportion of Josh Jacobs those
carries came against the Colts, which is going to boost up stuff
like his rush hours over expected per attempt.
Right yeah, so anyway, that was my Josh Jacobs hating.
Needed to get that off my chest just so that in a couple weeks
when it's aging well, I can victory lap and say that I told
you so right like just. Tune into our one hour and 30
minutes into stock chasing and it's right there.
Yeah, clear as day. We'll we'll move on here because
we are we're we're kind of languishing on these charts.
But let me hit you with a couple quick questions for rest of
season. Who would you rather have here?
We'll just go with guys that are very similar in their expected
fantasy points on this chart. OK, Josh Jacobs or Brian
Robinson. Brian Robinson, probably Josh
Jacobs or James Cook are who? James Cook.
James. Yeah.
James Cook was 0. And probably James Cook.
Probably James Cook. And then the other ones that are
here, like I'm I'm clearly Josh Jacobs over Naji Harris.
I'm I'm clearly Bijon Robinson over Josh Jacobs.
Let's just assume, pretend that we heard today that Kenneth
Walker has fully recovered, but is the time to take some some
time away to to spend time with his family for the rest of the
season. He's moving to Hawaii.
Yes. And that feels like Charbonnay
as well. Like I, I, I, I, I feel very
comfortable about those guys as their current workload, but I
feel pretty uncomfortable with Josh Jacobs.
Now have to caveat that we, we are haters.
We're haters. And however, some some it's like
some of it seems bad, some of it does seem bad.
Yeah, All right. Let's let's move on to the tight
end chart. And and while we do that, we
can, we can just caveat this. So we're just haters for his
fantasy production in the silly imaginary made-up.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. We hope he has a wonderful life.
Yeah, yeah, I'm. I would love it if Josh Jacobs
performs really well, and he absolutely would stuff both of
us into lockers like there's no, there's no.
Doubt. Yeah, he would beat us up for
sure. Yeah.
And he absolutely has that dog in him.
So nothing negative to say about Josh Jacobs, the person just for
fantasy football. Yeah, that's your cue to me to
move on to the next chart, right?
Yes. So we're on the tight end chart
now. So as we as it's kind of
interesting, this is not too far off where we would have expected
Todd Conklin, where we would have expected K dot and this is
pretty much straight down the fairway for how you would have
projected them very high usage rates, but it not really
monitoring for fantasy football. Yeah, Conklin is 1 where like in
a managed league, if you're just like trying, trying to throw
someone out there that's not going to goose you, Conklin
seems OK, granted, he he's still going to goose you some weeks,
but like goose you less than other guys just cuz he's out
there so much. And The Jets are kind of devoid
of, I mean, now I say Jets are devoid of target competition,
but Tyler Conklin is still only earning 10% targets per route
run. So it's not great.
Yeah, but what? This is what you paid for.
You're getting what you paid for it.
When you draft Tyler Conklin, you're drafting floor.
You're getting floor. Now, Speaking of Floor, the
other guy who's been kind of sneaky.
Consistent, just like regular. 4 targets a week, you know, sign
them up. 4 targets, 4 catches. Not going to goose you, Pat
Fryermuth. Pretty sneaky, 18% targets for
route we're on really low A dot. You're, you're getting less,
marginally less than you paid for, but more than than me and
you would have projected at the start of the year, right?
Yes, and and. You still overpaid, but not by
as much as we talk. And in the in the current tight
end landscape where like everyone going earlier is just
failing, it kind of seems like even, you know, Pat Fryermuth
might even be a win. Even though he's a loss, he
could be a win because it it's one less spot on your roster
that you spent on a different tight end.
And there's so many that are bad.
But the one of the lone bright spots, there's really only a
couple bright spots, I would say at tight end this season.
And, and we talked about a couple of them last week with
Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, both of whom still look like
bright spots. The Brock Bowers, you know, bad
game. I I'm not willing.
To So Brock Bowers is still tied in two on the year.
Yeah, and it's only Dallas Goddard who's ahead of him.
Yeah, Goddard. Goddard showing that when the
Eagles have no other weapons and they're forced to rely on Dallas
Goddard, he can have a monster game.
He's definitely he can deliver. He's interesting for these next
couple weeks while you're missing Devonta and A.J.
Brown. Although it might just be one of
those situations where it's when a when a defense knows going
into the game, all we have to do is take away Saquon and Dallas
Goddard and then they're forced to throw to, I mean, not even
Britton Covey. Britton Covey's injured too.
I don't know if you saw that. So like you're doing what like
Johan Dodson, so. It seems, yeah, it's still
unclear and what AJ Brown's timeline is, so maybe he's back.
The speculation I've heard is that it's likely that these
injuries right now, the Brown and the Devonta one, are gonna
be something that they just try to push through the buy because
they have a Week 5 buy and it's OK.
Hey, let's not. Let's not go out right, right.
Thing. We we, we give up.
We, we no, not not necessarily sacrifice this game, but you
guys rest. We got a 2 for one basically.
Yeah, yeah. The the bright spot I wanted to
highlight though, other than the guys that we talked about last
week is Jake Ferguson. And you alluded to this earlier,
Draco, where you said, you know, the Cowboys have this offense
just bereft of talent outside of CD Lamb.
And so, you know, the the next most talented guy here of Jake
Ferguson is getting an elite 26% targets for route run really
strong, 9.7 A dot. And I mean, God, it's, it's so
frustrating to me because I was so, so strong on Ferguson early
and then all the slappies were on Ferguson and I let myself get
talked out of it by people who said, oh, he's not, he's not
that talented. He wasn't even a target earner
last year with no competition. And yeah, I just, I let myself
get talked out of it when I thought he was set up for a
really strong season again. So just kicking myself a little
bit there. It's gonna, we're looking at
absolutely gross, gross volume here though, right?
Yeah, where it's like it's a bad team who their defense is bad,
so or their defense has been bad.
So they've had they've had to because these these are kind of
like descriptive, they've had to throw a lot.
And then that and him being the number 2 in an offense,
Barabbetel has meant that he's been a big beneficiary.
Yeah, I mean, and really what you're, you know, to think
through like what's the fragility like here for Jake
Ferguson rest of season, the way that that this goes away for you
that he's not the smash of all smashes this year is the Cowboys
defense gets a lot better or some other weapon emerges on
offense that's like able to out earn him for targets.
But I mean the volume has been so high.
Or the defense keys in on him and he's not talent enough to to
like overcome that attention. Yeah, I mean, I guess, I guess
then you're because what they're they're just dedicating 2 guys
to CD and two guys to Ferguson every play like you'd hope,
you'd hope the Cowboys offense is able to get something going
there with, you know, you're getting multiple, you're getting
Brandon Cook single coverage and Jalen Tolbert single coverage.
Like they can't be that. Well, I don't want to say that.
I was going to say they can't be that bad, but I think they can.
Yeah, yeah, it's interesting. In NFL seasons, they do evolve,
yeah, but it looks very strong for Jake Ferguson right now.
Let's quick, quick run through. We talked about a bunch of these
guys the last two weeks, but the theme is continuing guys that we
are still very worried about here.
I just want your opinion on it here.
I'm just going to hit you with a couple of them.
Sample portal. Well, I, yeah, I'm still not
worried about him. And he's injured, so he's not
going to play, but I still think like he's important enough and
that they, they need touchdowns and he's somebody who can get
that for them. I still think that there'll be
long stretches where he's a, he's a big scorer.
I'm still holding that hope. Mark Andrews.
Oh my God, it's it that that the the thesis is just dead.
It's absolutely dead. Like I know they there's a cope
of like, well, they didn't feature much in their game plan
because this is a run heavy week and they didn't want to use them
like that. That is just not what you
thought you were drafting. Like we we understood we
understood that the Ravens would have these run heavy games like
that. I think that that's kind of
understood. But the idea that was like, Oh,
well, you know what, Marc Andrews, you're good this week.
Like, we don't need you. Like in my head, America Andrews
was like one of the the best players in the NFL and like
absolutely essential to his team.
And that is just so far from the truth.
Yeah, I'm, I'm wondering, I mean, we've seen this now with
two guys, so sample size of two, but Tony Pollard and Mark
Andrews both the year right after tightrope surgery
seemingly becoming just like a shell of themselves.
I'm wondering if the tightrope surgery thing.
So some of the some of the injury guys, they've been
talking about it and they've said that over all over the
larger sample size of the data that it's not really a thing.
Just for example, Brock Barrows, he had tightrope surgery and he
looks fantastic. And yeah, I guess maybe it's a
risk factor. It's where like either it's like
this binary 95% completely the same 5% were season of their
lives. Yeah, so the anyway, the Andrews
stuff looks really bad. I mean, I'd like to.
Hold out, somebody said, Somebody noted.
And I'm sure other people would think this.
I thought of myself as I was saying it.
Brock is younger, understood Mark Andrews, he is only 28.
But the the PT guys who look at this data, they've said over
over all over large sample size and it's it's usually not an
issue. Brock Barrows was just like an
example. I don't have any other off the
top of my head unfortunately, but.
I do think it's important that the overall sample says it's
usually not a problem, but these are some high profile and big
stinkers that we should think about going forward.
Yeah, so here's the next one, Travis Kelce.
Yeah, you, you, you have to be worried.
He's another guy where he's, he's just clearly no longer
essential. Yeah, he's just not really
essential to his team anymore, is he?
I, I kind of think that maybe what we saw last year with now
I, I think a big part of the way last year he.
Ran out though. Right.
I'm saying last year was the injury, but I think it all might
have been. Maybe he was, you know,
healthier towards the end of the season and then what we saw in
the playoffs. It might have just been like the
one last hurrah for a guy who's, you know, he's physically past
his prime, but he could he can get up and give it his all, you
know, for just a couple short weeks.
He can really lay it all on the line.
And it's it's frustrating because that's the the thesis
that we heard all offseason for people for why they're fading
Travis Kelce of oh, they're going to arrest him and and he's
not going to be used as much until the playoff when the
game's. Really, he's got an 85% route
rate, so they're they're playing this guy like he's playing, but
when he's out there he's not earning targets at the same rate
he used to. Yeah, I mean it.
It might just be the ascension of Rashi Rice.
Like maybe Kelsey is fine. It's just that Rashi is is just
that much better. Like if you know, I mean think,
think. They, they need guys too, like
they, they like they're kind of limited outside of Rashi's, so
they, they do need somebody else like I, I, I'm just like I'm
having, I'm having a really tough time.
I I posted something in the in the discord that his his ass
stats which is something to do with separation were really
strong but then I said I followed up.
I just, I just want an excuse to reference his ass.
OK, next next guy we're worried about still, Kyle Pitts.
And Kyle Pitts, yeah, I, I think we're, we're definitely still
worried about Kyle Pitts. And so I, I, I remember, I think
it was Sam who kind of noted that on the 1st Dr. he was, he
didn't play a lot of snaps. So last week he was on an 81%
route share. He's on an 84% route share for
the season. That's still, that's still top
five for tight ends. But the the target and then the
cop actually some of this last. So last week he had a 20% target
threat run and then A17A dot and then it's 14% over over the the
14% tiger spread run over the full season and then 11A dot.
That's a little more encouraging, right?
As as as. I mean, yeah.
Cousins can kind of pick this back if the last game for them
is any indication that that feels better, that feels better
than the vibes indicate. Yeah.
I mean, the problem for me is that when you look at the target
competition around him, it's like it's pretty concerning that
Ray Ray McLeod and Darnell Mooney, like if it was like are.
Important elements of the offense, right?
When? We thought they were average
guys A. Lot of his production came on
that one long pass. So, and, and I mean, that's to
transition that into the next guy of Dalton Kincaid.
Same thing for Kincaid. Like Kincaid and Pitts basically
had the same week. They had one big play and then
the rest of it was shit. And so it's like, man, really
the the thing that you're hoping for with these elite tight ends,
what these guys can do that the rest of the position can't do is
that in general, historically they were able to earn this
volume where they'd have this like decent production that
might not have been special on, you know, a game to game basis.
But in any single game, they had this great volume.
And then also you could you could tack on these big plays
like Kyle Pitts and Dalton Kincaid had.
But for these guys, we're getting like not a lot of
volume. Not right.
I mean Kincaid. Versus the price you paid right
is it's, it's concerning, but I, I think the the vibes are closer
to if you've got this guy in tight end premium, you can't
even start him. No, and that's, that's not the
case. Like Dalton Kincaid, I, I came
away this week feeling a little more bullish on him, you know,
not not just because of the the long play, but because it looked
like what they were trying to do in Week 2 before it kind of got
derailed with him getting, you know, checked out for concussion
protocol. It seems it seems like that is
more along the lines of what they want to do.
The problem again is this is just an offense that is is not
going to have a super high pass rate.
They'd rather run the ball. You know, Josh Allen is going to
eat up a bunch of the touchdown equity.
So. Some of the, some, some of the,
the statistics, I'm, I'm sorry to disagree again, some of the
statistics for Dalton Kincaid here are kind of interesting.
So Dalton Kincaid last week or last night had a 29% tires for a
run 12A dot. His issue last week was that he
had just a 49% route share and then coming off like, so no
injury. Actually, I was still thinking
about the concussion and maybe that factored, but do you think
maybe the low route share was just because they wanted this
big huge route? Or is that maybe like because I
guess we're just, I'm just looking at a single game split
here. And then his route share for the
season is just 67%. And, and, and we definitely, I
think we expect that to be higher and targets Brett run 18%
that that feels like, I guess it's not, it's not, it's not
spectacular. But I, I wouldn't be surprised
if he if he finished the year somewhere between 20 and 25% on
target for a run and then 80 to 85% on that right percentage.
Yeah, I, I mean, that was why I was saying I came away more
encouraged from this last game. Yeah, but I, I.
Sorry, I interrupted you and then said I was disagreeing with
you. And actually it sounds like we
actually completely disagree. So I I I apologize for my
interruption. No, no, that's OK.
Yeah, I, I came away feeling better about Kincaid.
I, I definitely think that, I mean, like many of the elite
tight ends, you it's a loss at cost like it's, it's a negative
advance rate player, but I, I don't think he's, he's not dead
and buried like Mark Andrews feels.
You know, I, I think the other problem with Dalton.
No, no, no. Is Khalil Shakur's the better
receiver on the team? Like pretty clearly to me, I, I
don't, I just don't think that we're getting the the true
ceiling outcome for Dalton Kincaid of like the special
talent will be the number one passing option on the team.
That is just they they they need the offense needs to work
through Don Kincaid Yeah, that is not being.
True is dead and gone just like the Mark Andrews thesis is dead
and gone. The unfortunate part with Mark
Andrews is like he seems like he might be entirely unusable.
Don Kincaid seems like he will still be usable, he just seems
like not worth what you paid for him.
Basically the answer to tight end this season just seems like
Trey McBride, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, Brock Bowers or
just like don't take any tight end and like just take whoever
you got forced to auto draft in round 18 when the the platform
realized you had no tight end so you just skip the position
entirely because it's been atrocious.
It's been rough. All right.
It has been rough. And then Speaking of it being a
little bit rough, so after we in our kind of circle kind of
crowned Brock Bowers as the as the, as the tight end one last
week, he had just 56% route share and then 16% target threat
run 5 1/2 percent A dot. Now, I I think that that is like
an indictment of the coaching staff.
They fucked up and they need to fix that, not for me, but for
them. But it does kind of underline
some of the risks here with bears after like a pretty
phenomenal week. Yeah, it might just be a throw
the game in the trash game for the Raiders because it was
really bad all the way around. I mean, they're talking about
quarterback changes already, right?
So. Right.
It might just be a throw out the box score kind of game, but I
agree with you. It definitely it's highlighting
the concerns that we had pre draft about Brock Bowers of
well, maybe because they have mayor, they don't use them as
much as we hope that they do. You mean post draft?
Post draft. Excuse me, yeah, post post NFL
draft, but anyway, I'm not. And then like, I guess on a down
game for him, he had 8.6 percent, 8.6 points on FFBC and
7.1 in PPOR for tight ends, given that he was like the
pretty pretty affordable. That's like that.
That's not a that's not a crusher by any means.
So if this is a down game for Bowers, like you're feeling
pretty good about an 8.6 floor in tight end premium.
Yeah, the the next guys I wanted to talk about are on the next
chart if we want to go to that one.
Cole Commit finally found his way out of the field.
Shane Waldron realized that it was a little bit silly to use
Gerald Everett over him. And Kolkamet looked great.
Looked like the reason why I was He was one of my most drafted
tight ends before so. Back up the 73% route share last
week and then a 27% target spread run and and and they
needed them. So, so like that, that, that was
pretty big and pretty encouraging to see that kind of
usage Now I think dude, I guess the question is, do we think
that that's should be the projected route share from like
week 4:00 on? I think it's going to.
I think as far as the tight end splits are concerned, like
Commet relative to Everett, I'm hoping that they learned their
lesson there. And right, right.
We get it, this is the better player, but what I'm worried
about is that the targets might not be there when Keenan Allen
comes back. Right, They won't be.
They won't, there's no way and the drop backs probably won't be
there as well. So this is probably like pretty
close to a true ceiling game for commit.
And but we were hope like the price that we were paying was
kind of like factoring in some good games with the hopes that
we would get these kind of ceiling games.
So we're pretty pleased that this is firmly in his range of
outcomes now. Yeah, I mean, my biggest take
away here is probably not even anything that's going to be that
fantasy relevant this season unless we get like if you're
playing single week stuff, you're playing DFS or like
underdog battle royales. And there are more situations
where the Bears are in a script where they're going to get to
run a lot of plays and have to pass a lot and they're missing a
weapon, like missing a DJ Moore or a Keenan Allen, someone who's
going to command a lot of targets where Cole Comet could
step in to fill the void. That feels really valuable to me
potentially as like a good spot where where?
Maybe. Captain Cole.
Comet, Yes. And Cole?
And then the other thing is that like in, you know, the future,
in, you know, next year's drafts down the road, Kokomat seems
like a a sneaky like could be one of these guys that we see
emerge later in his career is like a, Oh yeah, this is an
elite tight end now he. Feels, he feels a little bit
similar to a Devon singletary to me.
And it goes into the year and they're like, oh, we want to use
all these guys. And then as the year goes on,
it's like, no, this is the best one we have to play on.
Yeah, so I'm I'm hopeful that maybe next year is the year of
the elite Colcumet tight end season seems hard this year
without an injury to someone, but at least at least.
We have they signed into a long contract and we're and as Caleb
William develops, hopefully we get a new coaching staff that
could be really encouraging. So it's actually a dynasty.
Take trade for risk if if you're if you're somehow a dynasty guy
and listening to this podcast and trade for a Co command.
Yeah, OK, let's let's get through this chart real quick.
I just had two more notes. Are we done with the Isaiah
Likely experiment? Yeah, yeah, I I mean, you're,
you're still you're still very happy if you drafted them, but
you're very displeased if you bought them on the post Thursday
night and main event price when when people are doing the two
tree turn that that was bad. That was bad.
How could we have foreseen that that was man who drafted Mark
Andrews, one of his most drafted tight ends says makes fun of
people paying up for Isaiah likely it's a little little
ironic here, but talking about myself.
OK, last note on this chart, actually, I fuck there's,
there's 2 Joan Johnson alleged or apparently being eased back
in. They they mentioned that he's
kind of on a snap count as he works back from the foot injury.
So maybe we can leave a light on there for Jawan Johnson, who I,
you know, was a late round tight end darling for for many in our
our circle. No, no other real comment there.
Just wanted to mention that I see that.
I do, I do. Dwayne McFarland pointed out one
of the issues with tight end this year, that there's a split
between who plays an 11 personnel and 12 personnel.
That's been larger than before and the Saints could be part of
that trend where Juan Johnson is the 11 personnel guy and then
they use different guys in 12. But maybe that is part of easing
him back in from the injury that they actually don't want to play
him in 12, but as he feels better, they will.
Yeah, yeah. The other one that I wanted to
talk about is Eric All. Yeah, yeah, I got listed in my
notes as well. But you, you go ahead.
You start us off. Man, the Bengals seem to really
like this guy. I I had a note for myself
playing the showdown slate that I wanted to to bump up the Eric
All projection and kind of like fudge the Kasiki projection down
a little bit. And Gesicki still was involved
was the thing. I mean, look at the targets per
route run for the Bengals tight ends.
I think this is just a a side effect of them missing T Higgins
and not having, you know, very much in the way of wide
receivers. So just using the tight end as
kind of that that pass catching option instead.
But it is, it's looking like a true committee right now between
Gesicki and all. So that's the the hard part is
for either of these guys, so. Even even last night you're
looking at 54% route share for Gasiki, 24% route share for
Eric, all that, that like that. I think that's exactly what you
said where it's a committee like none of these guys are getting
like apart from showdown and like I don't even think you
could draft if you knew that this was the, if you knew that
this is what we were getting, I don't think you'd take either of
these guys. I don't think you'd draft either
of these guys in in tight end premium at all.
Really I would like if we, if we were redoing an FFPC 20 round
draft right now, I think we'd be scrambling to take both of them
late. Like not, I'm not saying to take
them early, but like, dude, we were drafting guys like Michael
Mayer and like Gerald Everett. Like we absolutely would be
drafting Mike Isiki and Aerogal. There was that like there was
some chance that it could be higher if you knew you're just
locked into a 50% route share without, without upside.
Like I, I don't think you can play these guys at all like, and
I don't, I don't like one of them will have to hit a much
higher percent route share to, to like hit your line up in a,
in a real way other than like just a random touchdown.
No, you're you're right in managed league.
Like like 54% for Gesicki, even when a 23% route share is like
that's like, that's pretty to me.
That's pretty rough. Yeah, I, I mean, I think in
basketball, like there's some argument to be made for having
one or, or either of these guys. Oh no.
Uh. Oh, can you hear me?
I'm having some some audio issues.
OK. But yeah, just to to kind of put
a bow on tight end, they're interesting.
It's kind of like they have really limited stand alone
value, probably some decent contingent value.
So yeah, that's that's where I kind of fall on the Bengals
tight end situation. It definitely a little
interesting in in DFS or like weekly formats on slates where
you're either doing like a punt tight end thing or like in the
the prime time Palooza stuff for underdog.
I was taking some Eric all taking some aircol and yes,
Draco, I can. That's not good.
I can. I can hear you now, but I don't
know if you can hear me. All right, hang on.
We have a little technical difficulty here.
Sorry for the dead airwaves guys.
We're just trying to trying to work through this.
Try to get to the next chart here for wide receivers and I
can kind of begin walking us through it.
Let's see any other tight end stuff I can I can mention here
while Draco gets us squared away?
Yeah, I mean, not really, no. No one on this page is is anyone
that you really want to be starting at all.
I mean, the Bengals situation is just the most interesting
because you have a a little bit of contingent upside there if
either one of those guys could consolidate there.
I think there's a really small path to Eric all.
Just like being the better guy and and ending up like winning
the job from Kasiki. But I think it's pretty thin.
I think they'll probably just end up using them both.
So that is that's the painful part.
Still, still waiting. Oh, there we go.
OK, so Draco's gotten us over to the wide receiver chart here.
This first wide receiver chart is for wide receivers that are
running between 85 and 100% of the route.
So these are the true, like every down type starters.
Our X axis is our weighted targets per route run.
So it's targets per route run, but with a waiting to account
for target depth. So if you're just getting a
bunch of little dink and dunk stuff, you're gonna have a lower
weighted targets per route run than guys that are getting
targeted down the field. And then on our Y axis is their
fantasy points per game that they've scored so far.
So the X axis going to be a little bit more of what tells us
like guys that we can be looking out for potentially for some
positive regression if they're really high or negative
regression if they're low there. And then the Y axis is just
describing what they've done for us lately.
So I mean the first one that stands out is the the overall
wide receiver one in the top right hand corner Malik
Neighbors, just with an absolutely absurd target share.
I mean, over 80% weighted targets per route run is insane,
averaging 22 1/2 fantasy points per game.
He looks like the absolute truth.
I have to shout out something Gretch put in stealing signals,
but he was talking about the incredible touchdown catch that
neighbors had in the corner of the end zone where he like
stopped on a dime, turned, spun around catch, caught the ball
and then managed to get both feet down.
And he said something along the lines of, is it possible that
Daniel Jones didn't actually throw that ball off target, but
he was instead intentionally throwing it somewhere that only
Spider Man could catch it? I just thought that was a great
way to describe the superhero level of effort and execution
that Malik Neighbors had. I mean, this guy looks so, so
good. The only thing that really can
slow Neighbors down, I think is the fact that it's kind of a one
man band there. And so you're going to get some
teams that really focus on taking him away, but I mean,
he's a locked in every single week starter.
You just you literally never bench this guy going forward.
He seems seems elite. Other guys that I wanted to talk
about on this chart, Malik neighbors draft classmate Marvin
Harrison junior. I mean, I think this is the week
for Marvin Harrison to kind of string together another really
good game. He had the quiet week 1 where
everyone was calling him too slow and a bust.
Then he erupts in Week 2. You know, gets a a good amount
of targets here in week 3. But I think week 4 where you get
the great match up with the commanders and, you know, just a
really friendly game environment.
Also, you're very likely missing McBride with a concussion.
Like I've been aggressively drafting Marvin Harrison in the
dog bowl. He he's a guy I've been taking
ahead of ADP every time. He's one that I I think should
perform very well this week. I think he'll be joining
neighbors a little farther up and to the right on this chart
next week. A guy that I wanted to talk
about as far, and I think this is like more of a broad meta
discussion rather than like a specific player, but I think
it's it's useful especially in the context of this player as
well, is Chris Godwin. So he's been really, really
effective so far, scoring a touchdown in I believe every
game so far. Just incredible usage to 60%
weighted targets per route run. The problem is like Chris
Godwin's not going to score a touchdown in every single game
and he does have really strong target competition.
Mike Evans. So I've, I've heard really good
analysis on the fact that this is a really opportune sell high
window for Chris Godwin, which I, I certainly agree with, but
I, I don't think he is going to plummet back down to earth like
some people think. I think that kind of the mean
for Chris Godwin this season might be something that we're
observing just for players of this archetype in general.
And that's these wide receivers who are like these more
possession receivers that are running lots of routes out of
the slot and are really matching up well, matching up well
against the defenses that have become popular in the NFL so
far. And so we're seeing this with
guys like Chris Godwin, we're seeing it with guys like Roshi
Rice. And I would argue that if
Cooper, we'd be seeing it with Cooper cut as well.
Really it's just these guys that are these possession receivers
in the slot. I mean, we, we've kind of always
seen it with almond raw, but I mean, he, he kind of came, came
into his own during a, you know, a meta in the NFL where it's
been more similar to what we're seeing this year, where this
year just feels like an even more extreme version of what
we've seen in years past. So I think this might be kind of
a combination of, yes, it could be a little bit of a sell high
window on Godwin, but it's not a sell at all costs.
I, I think this might just be more signal of, of what we might
be seeing that's effective against defenses in the NFL so
far. I'm gonna, I'm gonna just try
and power through these cause with, with Draco's technical
difficulty, I, I don't think anyone wants to hear me ramble
incessantly for super long. So I'm just going to go through
some of these main points I've got on the chart.
Garrett Wilson, we talked about this earlier.
Could potentially be a get right spot as we see The Jets play
volume increase might have been a side effect of the Patriots.
But I, I do think that the spot against the Broncos might be
better than people would believe with how strong the Broncos
defense has been. I, I think that, you know, we,
we heard Aaron Rodgers say something to the effect of he
and Garrett Wilson need to get on the same page.
And I've, I've seen lots of really good analysis about
Garrett Wilson just, you know, making some lazy mistakes, not
getting his feet down, you know, just doing not not properly, you
know, in being in motion and, and turning it up field before
the ball is snapped, getting a careless penalty, stuff like
that. And I think Garrett Wilson's a
talented enough receiver that if he and Rogers can get on the
same page, we might get one of these absolute eruption games.
And I I think I'd rather be early than late to that.
So I'm going to attack this aggressively as a spot to play
Garrett Wilson this week. The other notes I had on this
chart, I mean, OK, so we got the huge monster week from Juwan
Jennings last week. Brandon Nyuk sitting down here
in the wind sprinter quadrant next to guys like DeMarcus
Robinson and Romeo Dobbs. I think it's got to be time they
get Brandon Nyuk involved. He had a good number of targets
last week. I I just think that this offense
is in desperate need of someone to stand up and make some plays
for them. You could get Kittle back this
week, but if if Kittle and Dibo are both out, I think it's a
really good spot for Iuke just to get peppered with volume.
Quinton Johnston, is he for real or not for real?
The Quinton Johnston position on this chart is actually a mirage.
It's, you know, the fantasy points are purely coming from
just crazy touchdown volatility. He's been OK.
He's definitely been better than I thought he would be.
I thought he was just an unmitigated disaster.
He's been OK in an offense almost entirely devoid of target
competition, but he's kind of masking the Lad Mcconkey
breakout that's happening before our eyes.
Lad leading the team in targets per route run, looking like a
really strong profile. Definitely a buy opportunity on
Lad where he's kind of masked by the Quinton Johnston touchdown
efficiency. If Herbert misses the game,
which he's got that injury he's dealing with.
You could still have like an extended by window on Ladd
Mcconkey. But I'm definitely selling this
Quintin Johnston performance so far.
Crystal Lave kind of talked about the Saints as maybe
misleading us with their overall volume that we expected from
them with the first two games being blowouts.
We thought they might be, you know, just this really
fast-paced, efficient offense with their play action rates pre
snap motion. Turns out they might just be a
run heavy offense that can be efficient.
More along the lines think think like Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee
Titans, right, like really efficient run heavy play action
type team. So I'm not super worried about
Chris Olave, but I'm also less bullish on him this week than I
was last week, which is weird because he had his best game so
far this season this last week, finally getting in the end zone
and putting up a little over 80 yards.
But I just think you might be seeing like a lower volume
offense, which might not be as exciting for Olave.
So not panicking, but also like kind of stemming some of the
bullishness that I felt towards him.
Let's see, I think that we may be good to move on to the next
chart. So I will let Draco know here.
Oh, he he's so good. So this chart, I mean, we see
Rashi Rice, absolutely elite, elite roll, you know, incredible
weighted targets per route run up at the top with other elite
receiver Jawan Jennings, of course.
Obviously, I think the Jawan Jennings stuff is more just like
that one week blip on the radar out of absolute necessity.
Although I don't want to take anything away from Jawan
Jennings. By the way, if you didn't watch
this game, go back and watch the game.
The Jawan Jennings performance is way more impressive than the
box score, which you have to be thinking, how is that possible?
He scored 50 fantasy points. The guy went insane.
The reason it's more impressive is there were multiple throws
that were for all intents and purposes, interceptions that
Jawan Jennings just decided, no, it's not an interception, It's a
Jawan Jennings reception. And I it was incredible.
There was a really awful pass that should have been.
I mean, the 49ers did manage to lose this game.
They they definitely should have lost it earlier than they did.
There's a really bad turnover worthy play where Jawan Jennings
just absolutely Moss as a guy and saves the game.
I mean, I thought that was the game saving play by him.
Turns out the 49ers were beyond saving.
Yeah, this this could be a really interesting spot against
the Patriots where the 49ers are are in desperation mode.
They need to win a game. Let's see here other notes that
I had on this chart. Jane Reed, incredible buying
opportunity. One of the best receivers in the
NFL. You can just take that to the
bank. It's just getting masked by the
Malik Willis stuff right now. If you get by the way, Jayden
Reid, like incredible, incredible underdog pick right
now, the ADP on him could be extraordinarily volatile.
If you get a Jordan Love is cleared to play notice and then
you're going to get projections come out later in the week.
Jayden Reid just seems like one of the best receivers in the
game just like we can just full stop that.
He's very good, extremely dynamic.
I mean, it, it feels weird to compare him to Debo because to
me he's like a little bit like Debo will straight run through a
guy's face. He's like got a little bit more
running back to him than Jayden Reid does.
But Jayden Reid is just as dynamic with the ball in his
hand as as anyone in the league. He's incredible to watch.
A super, super exciting player. If you're in a like a managed
league with training like a home league, buy the shit out of
Jayden Reid right now. Some other guys on this chart
that we were looking at, we had I, I mentioned lad Mcconkey
already. You can see the incredible
weighted targets per route run there.
That's what we're looking for. You know, 70% weighted targets
per route run, but not popping yet on the fantasy points per
game. This is like a a clear get ahead
of the trend on lad Mcconkey. We talked about Deonte Johnson
earlier in the context of Andy Dalton.
Think we're in a really good spot for Deonte Johnson.
Incredible weighted targets for route run.
Probably will see his fantasy points per game come up to, I
would assume with the feeling injury.
So really, really like Deonte here.
Shaheed still getting great weighted targets for route run.
Like Draco said, just didn't connect this week.
So it's fine. I mentioned Khalil Shakur is the
best receiver on the Bills. Think it's pretty clear he he's
he's the best receiver on the Bills.
I the frustrating thing is I've been a big Khalil Shakur bowl
for multiple years and the Bills just refused to use him.
He looks like the best one now, but they're still doing this
annoying committee thing where they really like are spreading
it out and not concentrating the targets.
Going to be tough for fantasy, going to be not super pretty
hard to start any of these guys in a managed league.
You can only start. The only reason you could start
Dalton Kincaid is because of the tight end designation.
If he's a wide receiver, he's obviously unstartable, so you're
just in a situation where it's a low volume passing off and it's
kind of spread around. Shakira's the best pass catcher,
closely followed by Kincaid. I, you guys know I'm a Kincaid
hater, but I, I, I do want it. Like, I want to provide good
analysis and I, my Kincaid outlook is definitely more
bullish after this last week than it was earlier this season.
I still think he sucks. Brian Thomas might be the lone
bright spot on the Jaguars, but it also might not matter because
the Jaguars are atrocious. All right, we can go on to the
next chart here. We'll wrap it up.
Let's see. Last chart here.
I think I'm back just for the end.
Wow, Draco coming in clutch for the most important chart of the
night. I mean, I'll throw.
I couldn't miss the 40 to 7% root run receiver chart.
I'll throw it over to you for Xavier Legat.
We we talked about, you know, increasing bullishness for
Panthers weapons. What are your thoughts on the
GAT going forward? So yeah, you have the Andy
Dalton and sorry when I'm still having some issue.
So, yeah, you have the Andy Dalton and him providing some
stability for the offense going forward.
And then you also have the injury to Alan Thiel.
And I don't think he's it's like a one for one.
I, I, I think that they are very different players, but that
that's definitely pretty like it's a clear catalyst for him to
play more routes. And then after feeling if he and
it seems like he is playing well, if he can keep playing
well, increases routes and then maybe get some better
quarterback play. That does seem like something
where it's, it's pretty sneaky, like kind of like high upside
for the rest of the year. Yeah.
And as a note, after Thielen went out, Ligette's snapshare
increased substantially. I want to say he played every
snap after that. I can't confirm that right now.
The last two notes I had on here the answer to the Rams wide
receivers while Cup and Puka are out was to to Atwell.
But more more realistic answer is none of the above because the
Rams went out of their infamous eleven personnel.
I didn't think we'd ever see the day Draco when Sean McVeigh
waved goodbye to 11 personnel. It turns out all it takes is
having to put, you know, 22 out well, DeMarcus Robinson and
Jordan Whittington out there as your three wide receivers or
Tyler Johnson to really make a man not want to play three wide
receivers. So the Rams switch to two tight
ends instead of playing a third receiver.
Is 2 two out well at all useful or is this just a complete stay
away for the wide receivers on the Rams?
And I think 222 is useful for kind of like a waiver pick up
because he did have some big games off this year.
OK. The last guy I had here as a
note is Jordan Addison. Sounds promising for him to
potentially be back this week and you're getting a receiver
that should be the second option in a highly efficient offense
where their quarterback is leading the league in touchdown
rate and he's free. He's free this week.
You can get him as your last overall pick, you know, on
Underdog in in weekly formats right now.
Yeah, we love free Jordan Obson. Yeah, I think this is and and
you want you want something really fun, Draco, You want to
hear it. You're getting the Packers and
Vikings playing now for for deep lore ball blowers.
You'll remember that Justin Jefferson has has famously been
shut down by the Packers in some past games.
And so if you get Justin Jefferson being fully shut down
here, do we get the Jordan Addison eruption game?
I think I lost Rico. And then do we get to bring it
back with Jaden Reed as Jordan Love makes his return to play?
Sorry, I'm sorry. Say, say, say that.
OK. Jordan Addison with a Jaden Reed
bring back. That sounds pretty fun, yeah.
Where you have AII guess some of your you've got risk there
because you've got Jordan Addison returning from what high
ankle sprain injury and you've got a Jordan Love coming back
from an injury. I feel better about Jordan Love
coming back because his position doesn't require quite as dynamic
Atlanticism, but that is pretty fun.
That's a pretty fun. You've definitely seen crazier
things then guys come back from injuries and then explode.
But you, you, you certainly have risk there like, but but you're,
you're getting the discount that comes with the risk.
Right now you're getting more than the discount.
It's where when you have to pay the expensive price for the risk
that you you avoid it. Yep, I don't think there were
any other notes I had here. Did you have any other guys you
wanted to touch on here, Draco, before you get us out of here?
So I, I know I missed some of it.
Did did you talk anything about kind of Christian Watson having
his snaps eating into by Wix? I didn't.
I did not. So I I think that's important to
me that makes it even even even with even with Jordan love back.
That does make it pretty. That feels pretty tricky to
start either of them. You need some, you need one of
those guys that kind of consolidate.
I guess there's leagues where you kind of just have to start
them and hope that you get that big play.
But that I, I can, I'll put the exact, the exact stat now, But
Christian, Christian Watson having his, his, his routes and
snaps eaten into that, that that's to me that's pretty
devastating considering the price you paid there.
Yeah, that's a good shout. And yeah, so him, Christian
Watson down to 60%, then Tavian wakes up to 52% and then you've
got Dobbs and Reed at 72 and 88%.
So Jayden Reed at 72% last week at Dobbs at 88%.
And then that's just last week because it's the kind of like
the loss in time. But yeah, I it does feel like
you can only really play those two guys with confidence.
Yeah. Jeez, what?
I know you touched on this a lot, Jayden Reid.
Still with 33% targets. Sure.
Yeah, target rate, I should say. Yeah, no Jayden Reid, one of the
best receivers in the league already.
Yeah, well, I apologize everyone for my audio issues and thank
you, Zach for taking us through. And I'll charge my hearing aids
ahead of the podcast next week. All right, that'll, that'll do
it for Week 3. Thanks everybody, and we will
see you next week. See you next week.