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We've made it to the end of the 
road, the final show before lock

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tomorrow. 
It's our finale. 

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We got Dink, maybe we got Leone,
we got Gretch, we got Korain. 

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We're going to talk through our 
final thoughts here. 

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We've spent a week digging into 
the ownership, finding our 

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favorite pivots, all our 
favorite leverage angles. 

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Any questions in the chat, hit 
us up. 

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I'm Pete. 
This is ship chasing. 

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Let's do it, Pat Fryer, Helmo 
this. 

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Is what? 
This is what I'm Pat. 

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Anita hand job. 
Fix your sight. 

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Jamar and Alpha play chase you. 
Can't handle the heat. 

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It looks like we're. 
Finally, at this point, you're 

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right. 
All right, here we go every 

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every year this show on Friday. 
I feel like we just get more 

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tired and weathered by the end 
of the week. 

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Like I feel like the first year 
we did it we just all got 

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hammered on the Friday night 
with for like 3 hours and now by

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the end of the. 
Week I was like Jimmy quarantine

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I feel. 
Great, I feel great. 

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And, and you, we were talking 
about, you know, when we're 

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going to actually start building
lineups and we all had estimates

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of mine was the latest estimate 
of, of basically how long the 

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show would go. 
I I feel I don't know, I'm I 

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still I got wind in the sails. 
I guess it's not a coincidence 

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that The One Show I wasn't able 
to join this week with for three

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hours. 
It is not a coincidence. 

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There were many times where I 
was thinking like, I should 

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probably try to move us on. 
Davis admitted later that he was

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just like, yeah, I'm not even 
going to try moving you guys 

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along. 
I thought about it several times

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but then I was like no, I want 
to say something about this. 

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Conversation. 
I want to talk instead. 

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What happened was I went and 
watched an entire NBA basketball

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game, drove home 40 minutes back
to my house, brush my teeth, got

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ready for bed and you guys were 
still live. 

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And I thought for 1/2 second 
about poking my head and I was 

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like fuck this that. 
Would have been great. 

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Mike, welcome back to the ship 
chasing airwaves. 

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I can't remember when the last 
time was. 

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Oh, maybe a ship cast earlier 
this year. 

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But how are you doing? 
Good. 

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I yeah, I was on a ship cast 
where we won. 

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Yes, Yeah, That was the the Josh
Allen fifth leg that you 

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contributed was all we needed. 
Yeah. 

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People want to know. 
Leone, are you are you shaking? 

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For the Bills, it's Buffalo's 
years. 

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How do you feel about a comment 
that says something along the 

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lines of Leone repping Team 
Liam? 

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I think it's unfair and frankly 
Bush league for you to put up a 

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comment like that and put me in 
this kind of position. 

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Oh, my goodness. 
Yeah. 

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So, Leona, you couldn't help but
you were sharing a lot of clips.

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You're saying all the public, 
all the squares, everybody's on 

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the Jags. 
And were you implying that all 

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the sharps are on Buffalo or 
just that all the squares are on

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the? 
Jags. 

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I think everybody's on the Jags.
I think it's just everybody's on

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the Jag. 
I use squares super 

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derogatorily, even when it's 
like, not necessarily when it 

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just kind of means like public, 
but I am using it in a very 

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condescending manner in all of 
our chats. 

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And that is intentional. 
I every clip I see out there, 

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it's Mina Kimes picking the 
Jags, it's Silva, it's Bill 

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Simmons. 
It's Gretchen in our internal 

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Discord. 
I didn't put a clip out there, 

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but I will. 
Right now I'm picking the Jags. 

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Everyone's picking the Jags. 
I think I, I mean, it's pretty 

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close to a flip, but I do think 
the Bills are going to win. 

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Are they are they the better 
team? 

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No. 
But at the end of the day. 

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That's just Sean Mcdermott's 
opinion. 

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You. 
Know Josh Allen? 

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All right, Leona. 
The favorite thing is what I 

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talked to about it and I'm like,
they got, you know, Jake's got 

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these things going for him. 
This is not the other thing. 

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And Leona's response every time 
is Josh Allen is the Josh Allen 

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playoff. 
Josh Allen is a top five team 

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of. 
All time You guys got playoff 

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Trevor Lawrence versus playoff 
Josh Allen. 

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We'll see. 
How that's true? 

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That's a that's a good counter, 
but I mean McDermott like like 

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getting ahead of the finger 
pointing like pre setting up 

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this roster sucks ass. 
It seems bad to me the. 

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Defense is worse than usual. 
The skill players are bad like 

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the the Bills are worse than 
usual. 

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Yes. 
Leonie rank, rank these things. 

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I do think McDermott, though, 
will surprise. 

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I think the defense will show up
a little bit more than people 

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think. 
I think Mcdermott's really good 

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defensive coach in non KKC games
I. 

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Mean has anyone told them about 
the running game and maybe 

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trying to stop that because 
they're. 

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They're, I mean, there's this 
fine line between where they 

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like, want teams to run, but 
then they don't want teams to 

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run for six yards of carry. 
That's bad. 

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So we'll see what happens, but I
I think they're going to be, but

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not a complete disaster 
defensively and it'll be it. 

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Leonie, this is what I want you 
to do. 

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I want you to be completely 
objective. 

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I want you to metaphorically 
take off that Bill's jersey 

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right now, and I want you to 
power rank the best plays to 

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make in the contest for the 
bill. 

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So I'm giving you Josh Allen, 
James Cook, soft fade, hard 

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fade, Dunkin Cade. 
If you want to fucking Brandon 

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Cooks it, go for it. 
But give me ranking those of the

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best way. 
Let me know if you're going to 

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do that though, because I got to
up them from zero. 

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Percent the best plays. 
Oh man, it's difficult in this 

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time. 
I mean, it's, it's probably 

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James Cook. 
OK, the. 

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The play that is probably right 
that you guys are all on and 

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we're on a little, you know, I, 
I know talk about a little bit, 

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but the full Buffalo fade is 
definitely, you know, possible, 

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I think. 
You just set set you up to to 

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have to say that. 
This is so brutal Pete, because 

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Buffalo fade is like math wise, 
such a great play. 

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It's a decent play. 
Let's not get it's a decent. 

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Play. 
It's man versus machine, but 

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just Leonie's brain. 
The I think the Cook play. 

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I think the Cook plays good 
chalk though, because I think 

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cook, the way some of these 
games set up even in a loss like

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he can get what? 
About Alan. 

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Where you at on Alan? 
I like Alan, but he's going to 

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be owned a lot for a team that 
is 5050 to lose round one and 

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you probably need at least two 
games out of them. 

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But I do think he could get 
there in two games. 

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And we were, you know, looking 
at the look ahead lines and 

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stuff. 
And the market, you know, is, is

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buying into the playoff bills a 
little bit. 

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You know they are favored in the
lookout lines against almost 

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everybody you know, despite 
being on the road. 

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Well, I've seen that as a 
popular take of like, whoever 

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wins that game is going to go to
the Super Bowl out of. 

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The yeah, I think the the lines 
like Jacksonville too, they just

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have this is a really good game.
It's also it's a super high 

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total. 
If it was a lower total, if the 

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game totals were a little bit 
more spread out round one, I 

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think the Buffalo fade would be 
like an amazing play. 

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But because this game has such a
high total and the way these 

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teams are going to play, I think
that there's a good chance you 

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need a player on both sides of 
things. 

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Now, it's still worth taking 
some shots on the fade just 

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because they're 5050 to lose 
round one. 

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And if James Cook has a bad 
game, you're not really fading 

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that much else, right, Because 
you Alan getting there one game 

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is pretty unlikely. 
You know it's. 

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Probably in. 
But it's unlikely. 

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I could be wrong about Kincaid, 
who's not on the injury report 

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and maybe he comes in higher 
than 6%, but I don't I don't 

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think people really want to play
him. 

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But if they don't like if they 
don't play him and Jake was 

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making this point a couple days 
ago that you you're really only 

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fading Cook as far as what other
people are actually going to 

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play like, it would be nice to 
have Khalil Shakur if he scores 

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twice, but if it's a loss, it 
doesn't really matter. 

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You know no one else is. 
Going to because he's not on 

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enough other rosters. 
He's like won't be on any 

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rosters. 
So like, he's not the ball, but 

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it doesn't matter. 
It doesn't matter. 

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What other stuff Mike going 
through like the ownership and 

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and looking at the how to build 
lineups this year do you think 

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are like the trickiest spots to 
to try to nail down? 

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I mean, we have a lot of spots 
where we don't necessarily the, 

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the balls kind of spread out 
where it's going, right? 

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Like you've got 4 skill players 
in Philly that are legitimately 

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viable. 
You've got 4 skill players on 

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Jacksonville that are 
legitimately viable. 

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So there's a lot of weird spots 
like that that are tough to 

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figure out, especially in this 
contest because we talked a lot 

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in this contest about not overly
Galaxy braining this stuff, 

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which is usually like, you know,
don't take the wide receiver 2 

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if you don't have to or the wide
receiver 3, like just kind of 

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construct a little differently 
and then being on the core 

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player when you need to. 
But that dynamic is, you know, 

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definitely trickier this year 
where you might have to take it 

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might be worth taking some 
chances on on those types of 

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skill. 
But. 

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There's a difference between 
like a Devante Smith and like a 

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Pat Bryant as far as getting gal
brain goes. 

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Like if you're, if you're still 
drafting, you know, or selecting

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a guy who's, who's a really good
player, who's projected pretty 

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well, that's, that's a much 
better pivot than some of these 

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really off the board, please. 
They said Dink is going to be a 

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scam. 
They said Dink for real. 

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They said dink, said Deuces. 
Well, to the haters and losers, 

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look what we drug from the 
depths of NBA projections, Drew 

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Dinkmeier, welcome to the 
stream. 

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Of which there are many. 
Welcome, boys. 

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Yeah, one of the most festive 
weeks of the year. 

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Sure is. 
I catch up on all the nonsense 

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that you guys have been 
participating in for the last 

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three days live on air with 
everybody else. 

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Yeah, and people like say to me 
throughout the week, they're 

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like, Dink's not really going to
be there. 

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I'm like, honestly, I don't 
know. 

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I just put him on all the 
marketing materials. 

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It's a good click bait, you 
know, and and then just see if 

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you'll show up. 
And you did this year. 

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So it. 
Worked. 

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Out that's I I when I when I put
out the projections I was going 

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to message you. 
I was like, is Dink actually 

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going to show up? 
Because I was like, we're going 

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to be joined on Friday by by 
Leonie and Take. 

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And then I saw his on the 
thumbnails. 

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Like I mean if he's on the 
thumbnail I can say he's coming.

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It just shows you can manifest 
whatever you want in this in 

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this life. 
Drew On a scale of 1 to 10, how 

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excited are you to watch your 
beloved Bears this weekend? 

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00:10:57,680 --> 00:10:59,920
I mean, it's, it's, it's just 
terrifying. 

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00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,640
It's just honestly terrifying if
there's too much emotional 

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investment. 
I'm not used to being a laundry 

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00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:08,360
bro, but when it comes to Bears,
Packers, it's like really 

214
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intense, mostly because I have 
one work colleague from many 

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00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:15,440
year from finance from like 
before I was even in DFS. 

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00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:20,240
There's a Packers fan that has 
texted me every time from a 

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00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:25,400
position of power just mocking 
the Bears for like 15 years. 

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And I just I can't face it. 
I can't face that It's so I'm 

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just terrified I. 
We all have that one friend. 

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I just, I just like I didn't 
even after after the last game, 

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I didn't send a message. 
I just, I was like, I'm trying 

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to opt out of this interaction 
in this relationship and I just 

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00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:49,400
know the message is going to 
come. 

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So you didn't? 
Send him a message after the 

225
00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:56,360
bears. 
I did not I, I I want no part of

226
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,240
this. 
I'm not trying to take joy in 

227
00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,080
others pain as he has been 
trying to take joy in my pain 

228
00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,000
for the last. 15 years you're 
still, he's still gonna text you

229
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:05,960
that. 
Wasn't I know, there's I know 

230
00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,640
and I'm prepared. 
I told the guys in our slack 

231
00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,560
like a month ago. 
I was like, the scenario that 

232
00:12:12,560 --> 00:12:15,080
makes the most sense happening 
is that the Bears are gonna win 

233
00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:16,920
the next game. 
They're going to win the 

234
00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:18,720
division, They're going to have 
home game. 

235
00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,320
I'm going to be invested. 
I'm going to have my hopes up. 

236
00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:25,440
And then the Packers will steal 
my joy, because that is what 

237
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:28,520
happens in this Bears Packers 
rivalry, at least as long as 

238
00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,680
I've been alive. 
Dude, I'm sorry to get us back 

239
00:12:31,680 --> 00:12:34,280
on track, though I did want to 
mention Josh Jacobs is one of my

240
00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:35,400
favorite. 
Players in the world. 

241
00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:41,680
The amazing thing, the amazing 
thing is every year I come on 

242
00:12:41,680 --> 00:12:45,840
the show and every year you guys
are touting Josh Jacobs every 

243
00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:47,760
single year, Every single year 
after not. 

244
00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,040
Touting him in. 
August after not touting him in 

245
00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,840
August every year it's January. 
Josh Jacobs. 

246
00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:55,880
It's like it's like the reverse 
to Hember. 

247
00:12:55,920 --> 00:13:00,920
Like it's, it's incredible. 
Drew, I told Micah you were you 

248
00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,200
were kind of mad at him. 
And he wants you to know that 

249
00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,840
he's rooting for the Bears. 
He just thinks the Packers are 

250
00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:06,800
going to win. 
That's fair. 

251
00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:08,000
That's fair. 
OK, we can. 

252
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:09,960
We're back on speaking terms, 
then me and your. 

253
00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:14,120
How is how is ETR not paying for
you and Silva to go to this 

254
00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:15,440
Bears game with a camera? 
Oh my God. 

255
00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,480
Dude, that's. 
The content we all need. 

256
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:20,680
For real. 
So they would be trolling the 

257
00:13:20,680 --> 00:13:23,400
Bears fans and then they would 
get into a fight and it I don't 

258
00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,040
think it would end well. 
All of this sounds like great 

259
00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:28,640
content, like you just described
what we're all hoping will 

260
00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:30,680
happen. 
Also, I want to, I want to 

261
00:13:30,680 --> 00:13:33,360
circle back on something we only
just said because Drew took it 

262
00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:36,040
really well. 
What Micah said that he's 

263
00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:37,720
rooting for the Bears, but he 
thinks the Packers are going to 

264
00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:39,280
win. 
You didn't take it so well when 

265
00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:41,120
I said I was rooting for the 
Bills, but I think the Jags are 

266
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:42,120
going to win. 
That's you're. 

267
00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:44,680
You're not. 
You're not thrilled? 

268
00:13:44,680 --> 00:13:47,720
Drew told me earlier this week 
that he was not speaking to my 8

269
00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:50,880
year old son. 
So let's let's put a pause on 

270
00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:56,440
him handling it well. 
Also, is is, is is Mike the one 

271
00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,960
who's been texting you all these
years from a position about 

272
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:08,960
we're calling? 
I'm not as Bill's Homer as I 

273
00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,680
think you think I am, Gretch. 
I'm, I'm just playing the odds 

274
00:14:11,680 --> 00:14:13,480
here, buddy. 
We're we're, we're fine with 

275
00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:17,080
whatever happens. 
Yeah, it is funny to see like 

276
00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:21,440
the dichotomy of how your guys's
fandom is manifesting with the 

277
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,880
the public consensus. 
Drew's just like going into a 

278
00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,560
shell, and Leonie's like I'm the
only believer. 

279
00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:35,160
You did a a minute ago, you 
asked about the like the best 

280
00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:37,720
plays in this tournament. 
And I do think this year is so 

281
00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:39,720
fascinating because we've been 
talking about it since the 

282
00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:40,720
beginning. 
It's so wide open. 

283
00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:44,760
But the more this week has gone,
I I normally at this point in 

284
00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:46,560
the week have like a handful of 
plays. 

285
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:47,920
I'm like, oh, I really like 
those plays. 

286
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:49,760
I don't really have any this 
year. 

287
00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:53,600
Do you guys like, feel like you 
have some that you really like 

288
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:55,440
want to smash? 
I there's a lot. 

289
00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,960
In the in the the bit ones that 
we did, but they're not a bit. 

290
00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,520
I like Buffalo Fade a lot and I 
like Josh Jacobs a lot. 

291
00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:07,280
Do you guys want us to put those
on different teams or just like 

292
00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,560
like what is what is best for 
the morale? 

293
00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:13,120
Do we just like pair those 
together? 

294
00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,400
We just have like a set of teams
that are just like Leonie think 

295
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,360
Misery do. 
You have misery teams or do you 

296
00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:21,480
guys want to be miserable 
together or separate? 

297
00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,240
We usually choose together. 
We usually choose to be 

298
00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:27,000
miserable together. 
Maybe we'll pair those. 

299
00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:32,560
I do I To me some of the most 
interesting stuff is around the 

300
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:37,520
fades and what you can do with 
the 4th fade because with 

301
00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:41,960
Hampton so Hampton Hampton 
limited today ankle brace says 

302
00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:45,440
he's going to play. 
I don't think a lot of people 

303
00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:48,640
are going to be super excited to
play Marion Hampton at less than

304
00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:51,160
full health. 
Like I do think he plays, but it

305
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:55,520
like what capacity I have him at
9%, which could ultimately be 

306
00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,280
high, but I didn't want to get 
too carried away. 

307
00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,920
I've got Ladd Mcconkey and 
Gadsden and Johnston and Keenan 

308
00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:07,000
Allen kind of combining for 20 
like 21% total among the four. 

309
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:12,000
So that gets us to 30%. 
I've got 1% Herbert, which might

310
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:15,040
be high. 
So they're and then the rest is 

311
00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:17,080
fades of some kind. 
Dicker will be popular. 

312
00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,200
Chargers fade. 
I have up to 33%. 

313
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,760
So 69% of the field, softer 
heart fading the the Chargers, 

314
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,360
73% of the field doing that with
the Steelers, 87 with the 

315
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:31,160
Panthers. 
There's not like a lot of fade 

316
00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:35,120
leftover. 
So like, do you want to fade 

317
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,520
Denver, which is an interesting 
way to play that. 

318
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,520
Do you want to fade one side of 
the chart or the the Bears or 

319
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,000
the Packers, which which is an 
interesting game to pick that 

320
00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:45,640
most people might not pick. 
Do you want to fade the Jags? 

321
00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:47,160
Because people really like Cam 
Little. 

322
00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:51,080
I've I've seen a fair amount of 
people talking about him kicking

323
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,760
those long field goals and and 
the FPC kicker scoring being 

324
00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,280
beneficial. 
Yeah, kicking for touchdowns 

325
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,760
like people like this. 
So I think some people are going

326
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:00,640
to fade the Jags, especially 
people who take Allen. 

327
00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,880
So obviously people who take 
Allen aren't going to fade 

328
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:07,599
Buffalo, but there's like a lot 
of cool fade spots. 

329
00:17:07,599 --> 00:17:11,440
Denver, Buffalo Jags to a 
degree, although I like that one

330
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:15,319
less Houston and play a Steeler.
Maybe like there's some New 

331
00:17:15,319 --> 00:17:18,200
England, frankly, if you if you 
do want to play a Charger, but 

332
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:23,160
it's like it's tough to you. 
You can't fade as many with the 

333
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:24,640
that's becoming such an obvious 
fade. 

334
00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,720
You can't fade as many teams as 
maybe you'd want to. 

335
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,800
I felt like in past years there 
were games that were like, this 

336
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,760
is the way to play it. 
This is the way on paper that 

337
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:34,960
seems like and and a lot of the 
fields going to play it. 

338
00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:36,440
And so there's some pivots off 
of it. 

339
00:17:37,360 --> 00:17:40,800
You just went through like it's 
it's more open in a lot of the 

340
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,520
different games this year. 
I mean, other than obviously 

341
00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:47,600
Rams, Panthers, like you can 
play everything both ways and 

342
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,720
tell yourself a pretty 
comfortable story about it, 

343
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:51,720
which means something. 
That's a really nice play. 

344
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:53,440
Like when you start talking 
about Armari and Hampton, we 

345
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:54,360
start talking about the 
Chargers. 

346
00:17:54,360 --> 00:17:56,480
They're they're very live to win
in the first round and they're 

347
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,120
not going to get played like it 
because they're like the fifth 

348
00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:04,560
most exciting underdog. 
Yeah, which is most years a team

349
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,840
in the Chargers spot is one that
we're we're comfortable playing,

350
00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,040
but. 
Yeah, 3 1/2 point dogs. 

351
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,960
I think there's a lot more 5 
quarterbacks this year. 

352
00:18:15,360 --> 00:18:17,320
You can go a lot of different 
directions like QB. 

353
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,160
One of the things you were 
talking about the other night 

354
00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:21,720
was this idea of holding hands 
with the field. 

355
00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:27,760
I think one of my favorite plays
is this idea of playing like 

356
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,480
lock buttoning either CMC or 
Kittle on the Niners is the one 

357
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,040
thing that I've come around to. 
And I'm like, if you're, if 

358
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,600
you're playing CMCI mean 
obviously he's the best player 

359
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,160
in fantasy. 
If you're not playing him, if 

360
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:40,960
you're fading someone that's 
that big of chalk. 

361
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,920
Like the way I was saying it in 
the chat earlier this week was 

362
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,800
if if CMC got hurt in practice, 
I think Kittle would jump to 

363
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,760
like 70% ownership, but you're 
getting him at 15%. 

364
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:52,960
So if you're if you're if you're
making the decision to not play 

365
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:54,520
CMC, you're saying he's scoring 
10 points or? 

366
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:56,240
I'm up to like 20 but but yeah, 
yeah. 

367
00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,280
You have kittle up to 20%, but 
that's. 

368
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,000
Still like, yeah, exactly 20, 
yeah. 

369
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:07,120
In a in a non CMC lineup, you're
getting to play a 20% guy that 

370
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,920
in a non CMC field might be a 
70% guy. 

371
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:12,560
Like at least it's the way that 
I'm thinking about it. 

372
00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,760
So to to not play CMC and then 
also not play Kittle. 

373
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,520
And then the play that you do 
make is another one of those 

374
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:20,880
ones like we were talking about 
earlier where it's it's so low 

375
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,920
percentage. 
Do you get burned? 

376
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,800
If that's right, like if Eddie 
Pinero is the right kicker, it's

377
00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,440
not going to be so meaningful 
that there's not going to be 

378
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,240
enough lineups to matter. 
You know what I mean? 

379
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,000
So I don't know I there's a few 
of these like that that are. 

380
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,320
I'm with you. 
San Francisco's kind of in the 

381
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,920
cap for your Kittle to me too. 
I mean, I think the field is 

382
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,920
going to play it like that. 
I've got San Francisco 6% total 

383
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:47,960
faded, most of that being Pinero
and then Jawan Jennings at 2%, 

384
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:52,320
which kind of fills in for if 
anyone plays like any anyone 

385
00:19:52,360 --> 00:19:55,480
you. 
Know you've got Houston at 0% 

386
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,400
full fade. 
You think that's right? 

387
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,280
I mean, maybe I, maybe I. 
Need everyone's been. 

388
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:01,640
Just enough. 
I just don't. 

389
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:06,800
I think that's me trying to put 
as much to Fair Baron and 

390
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,480
Houston D as I possibly can 
because I think both those like 

391
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:15,160
Fair Baron is going to have a 
lot, a lot of backers and so 

392
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,480
will the Houston D. 
So it's not that I have Houston 

393
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,520
total fate at 36%, which is 
really high for a team with 

394
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:26,320
their odds of winning the AFC 
and their odds of winning around

395
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,440
1. 
So it's not about people not 

396
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,320
fading Houston. 
I just think if you're fading 

397
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,320
Houston, aren't you just taking 
their D? 

398
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:36,440
You know, or the. 
Or the kicker. 

399
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,320
Yeah, I mean, I should probably 
get it to one just as. 

400
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,080
But their their total's low 
enough that like. 

401
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:44,400
Yeah. 
But they're not a crazy team to 

402
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:45,960
fulfill. 
Well, Speaking of total, why 

403
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,480
isn't San Francisco fate more in
the conversation? 

404
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,360
I mean, they have the third 
lowest total on the slate. 

405
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,480
And I think it's because the 
concentration on. 

406
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,000
You might have been doing a 
draft, but I just talked about 

407
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:02,640
that, yeah. 
Then it went the whole lot of 

408
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,720
conversation. 
Yeah, I don't know. 

409
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:08,240
But I I what? 
Do you guys think about like 

410
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,120
going off the board in San 
Francisco, you guys into that 

411
00:21:11,120 --> 00:21:14,120
or? 
No, but I I just think both 

412
00:21:14,120 --> 00:21:17,800
those guys can fail. 
Like, I don't that total is like

413
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,480
hilariously low. 
I mean, the Texans are projected

414
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:25,000
more score more points than the 
Texans and they're pretty 

415
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,040
concentrated as well. 
So I I don't know, like why that

416
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:29,200
isn't more of a combo. 
Yeah. 

417
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,840
I think like the reception 
volume for CMC is just so huge. 

418
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,640
And then the the tight end 
premium for Kittle, I mean, I 

419
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:42,160
know obviously Dalton Schultz 
gets that that as well, but and 

420
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,320
the San Francisco offense 
probably just being better 

421
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:48,640
overall. 
There's a significant constraint

422
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:50,680
on tight end this year too. 
That's that's what I was trying 

423
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:55,520
to say was if if CMC was out of 
the game, Kittle would be a a 

424
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,920
really huge chalk tight end in 
this contest. 

425
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,160
Because, and I would want to 
fade it even more in that 

426
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,520
scenario because I would think 
the systemic risk for the team 

427
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:04,280
failing would just be so 
massive. 

428
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,320
Like just looking at our 
projections for just the wild 

429
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:10,680
card rounds, just these are 
DraftKings projections, but we 

430
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,720
have CMC at 23 and Kittle at 
like 16. 

431
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:18,560
That's not tight end premium. 
We we don't have new, we have 

432
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,920
Nico Collins at 14.8 as the 
highest Houston player. 

433
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,160
And then the next is Woody 
Schultz at 12.2. 

434
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,920
So there's just like a, there's 
a pretty meaningful drop off if 

435
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,040
our projections are like close 
to reality. 

436
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:34,200
I mean, that's like, that's like
who? 

437
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,160
Are you fading Kittle for, like,
to Leonie's point, who are you 

438
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,000
fading Kittle for? 
Like, you have to fade him for 

439
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,040
like Dalton Schultz in this 
contest, or I mean, Coulson, 

440
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,920
Loveland's the chalk, but 
there's just not a lot of you're

441
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:48,360
like. 
Man, like a Carolina player, 

442
00:22:48,360 --> 00:22:52,480
like you need Tataroa, McMillan,
outscore CMC, like you know 

443
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,880
which which can kind of happen, 
Yeah, but. 

444
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,800
Can happen. 
Well to this conversation I was 

445
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:00,840
talking to. 
Points you pick up too, it's 

446
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,040
like. 
Right, Let's look, Pete, let's 

447
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,680
look at the actual wild card 
scoring last year. 

448
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,320
So the starting several years 
ago. 

449
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:20,640
I the way that I like to geek 
out with this is on wild Card 

450
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,280
weekend, putting down like the 
actual points that were scored 

451
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,280
on this little tab. 
The first year that this tab 

452
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,640
existed in our big spreadsheet, 
I think I wanted to like track 

453
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,000
the results and Leonie called 
it, I think it was called Ben's 

454
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,200
fucking tab or something like 
that. 

455
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,080
Like, fine, you can have your 
little fucking tab over here. 

456
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,360
But so this was this is the 
actual results only from wild 

457
00:23:41,360 --> 00:23:46,760
card weekend last year. 
The red in this column is teams 

458
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,120
that lost. 
So this was the the highest 

459
00:23:49,120 --> 00:23:53,120
owned players that did fail. 
And like what some of so we, we 

460
00:23:53,120 --> 00:23:55,360
always talk about like what 
actually happens in these types 

461
00:23:55,360 --> 00:23:56,280
of things. 
And I thought it'd be 

462
00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:00,840
interesting to, to look at the 
ways that that these things 

463
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,520
actually play out. 
So like for Minnesota with 

464
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,360
Jefferson, man, I'm so zoomed in
that I can't, I can't do the 

465
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:13,120
with with Minnesota for 
Jefferson, Hawkinson had 19.9 

466
00:24:13,120 --> 00:24:15,840
points and was the awesome tight
end 5%. 

467
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:17,920
Was Hawkinson ultimately in the 
winning lineup? 

468
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,360
I couldn't remember this. 
I can't remember what year was 

469
00:24:21,360 --> 00:24:23,000
this I can pull out. 
Last year. 

470
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:29,000
I don't think he was. 
So even at a 5% ownership. 

471
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,480
I could be wrong, I don't think 
he was. 

472
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,120
I thought it wasn't live line 
UPS up there that didn't have. 

473
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:37,400
Him. 
Hawkinson was in the winning 

474
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,160
lineup last year. 
Yeah, he was OK. 

475
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:43,520
He did. 
So he was solo tight in 

476
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:47,360
Hawkinson, Yeah. 
So he was the clear Minnesota 

477
00:24:47,360 --> 00:24:51,120
play. 
He was actually in the top three

478
00:24:51,120 --> 00:24:54,160
line UPS last year. 
The other way I want to look at 

479
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,600
this was to show you guys kicker
because I was talking about this

480
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,640
the other day. 
So this was this is just wild 

481
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,600
card weekend. 
I didn't I didn't keep adding 

482
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,320
points, but these top five 
kickers all won the winning 

483
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,440
kickers tend to score points. 
The losing kickers that scored 

484
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:14,160
points came from Tampa and Lac. 
But if you go look at just so we

485
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,600
talk about this every year on 
wild card weekend, six teams are

486
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,440
going to get are going to lose 
and you have to have at least 

487
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,480
two flex plays out of out of 
there, right lad. 

488
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,680
Mcconkey was so huge that 
Cameron Decker couldn't be 

489
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,240
right. 
Chase McLaughlin didn't work out

490
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,200
because Mike Evans scored so 
many points. 

491
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,120
Hawkinson is on here as well. 
Josh Jacobs is on here. 

492
00:25:35,360 --> 00:25:38,400
They all wound up being really 
strong plays and Pickens who was

493
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,240
only played 5%, they all wound 
up being really strong plays. 

494
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,320
There's good players that scored
like Bucky Irving was 45% on 

495
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,560
scored 16.3. 
Even at 16.3, which is a pretty 

496
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,920
decent game. 
He was like a terrible play 

497
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,800
because he had a teammate that 
scored 22 in a loss and there 

498
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,560
were just so many better one. 
And so many good Bucks teams. 

499
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,920
This just reminded me how I. 
That's that was my visceral 

500
00:25:59,920 --> 00:26:02,520
reaction to Yeah. 
I don't think we. 

501
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,000
Could say all this was so good 
for. 

502
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,920
This was so brutal the way that 
this played out at kicker. 

503
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,040
And so the point I'm trying to 
make here is the losing. 

504
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,720
Losing teams often don't score a
lot of points, just generally 

505
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:15,960
right. 
Losing kickers, 4 of them had 

506
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,840
really low totals. 
These two weren't right because 

507
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:20,280
their teammates scored so many 
points. 

508
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,840
The the kicker that we were all 
fading was Chris Boswell with 

509
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:28,680
23% ownership and he was right 
for a lot of people at 2 points 

510
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,240
because. 
He was on the top three when he 

511
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,120
the top three teams had had 
Boswell last year. 

512
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,360
And that's the thing. 
We're like, if you saw fade San 

513
00:26:35,360 --> 00:26:38,360
Francisco, even if Eddie Pinero 
scores points, I don't think 

514
00:26:38,360 --> 00:26:41,320
it's going to matter that much 
for your lineup. 

515
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,480
That's why I'm like. 
Well, unless San Francisco 

516
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,360
doesn't. 
You're risking a lot, I think. 

517
00:26:45,360 --> 00:26:48,520
I mean, you're, you're really 
risking a lot for a narrow 

518
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,760
outcome. 
Now there are, you know, 

519
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,520
obviously the Hawkinson versus 
Justin Jefferson was like a huge

520
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,320
win, but that was like a sane 
teammate thing as opposed to, 

521
00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:01,240
you know, a fade thing. 
I don't think it's crazy to have

522
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,480
like some San Francisco fade 
stuff. 

523
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:08,720
But in general, I'm with Ben 
that like, I don't know, just 

524
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:13,080
like ADFS contest, there's going
to be 20 to 30 ownerships you 

525
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,320
disagree with, right? 
That like aren't maybe efficient

526
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,080
in your mind, but you you can't 
play them all right? 

527
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,920
Like you got to you got to 
filter down to the ones that you

528
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,960
think are the most important. 
And that that one's probably 

529
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,360
like we could nitpick like, 
yeah, maybe the fade should be 

530
00:27:27,360 --> 00:27:30,520
like 6% instead of 2%. 
But like, I don't, you know. 

531
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,960
They they have a 20 point team 
total. 

532
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,600
So it's not it. 
It's the thing with San 

533
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,280
Francisco is that we just know 
where the points are going to 

534
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:40,600
go. 
But like, this could be a dud 

535
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:42,280
game for them with the the 
kicker. 

536
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:43,840
The kicker could be optimal 
because they just don't score 

537
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,920
many points and lose. 
Yeah, I'd tend to be with you, 

538
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:47,520
Ben. 
Where? 

539
00:27:48,360 --> 00:27:50,480
Here's another one where. 
They put up points through the 

540
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,880
guys we know score points. 
Totally. 

541
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,520
Here's another one. 
This is the year prior, if we 

542
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,440
look at just the flexes and the 
one and done's CD Lamb was the 

543
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:03,440
massive high owned player that 
year 20.5. 

544
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:10,800
But this is the Jake Ferguson 
year way down here, 42.3 at 1.3%

545
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,920
ownership. 
But also, like I was going to 

546
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:18,000
point out Tyreek when we look at
this 150% owned this year had a 

547
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:22,000
really great year in 2023 and 
even like in Joku, but there 

548
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,000
were guys so Puka winds up he 
was at 32% this back when they 

549
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:26,440
still had cup. 
This is his rookie year. 

550
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,560
He has a 33 point game in a 
loss. 

551
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:32,880
Devonta Smith down here at 22% 
owned had a 23 point game. 

552
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,800
You those guys are owned enough 
that they're going to be on good

553
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:37,840
line UPS. 
You wanted them more than you 

554
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,160
wanted like Tyreekin and Joku. 
So even when Tyreekin and Joku 

555
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:45,000
scored, this is just another 
point similar to the Buck Irving

556
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,680
point where even like good 
players can score some points 

557
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,000
and not be right. 
It's OK to get different when 

558
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,920
you're picking guys to lose. 
And I mean the lesson is like 

559
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:55,920
you can you can end up soft 
fading. 

560
00:28:55,920 --> 00:29:02,040
Like I think Miami had like some
a Chan ownership as well this 

561
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:06,560
year 16% and he didn't score. 
And the answer with Miami was 

562
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:10,080
probably just a full fade here. 
Like Tyreek wasn't right one and

563
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:11,760
done even though he scored some 
points. 

564
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:13,840
They must have had a decent team
total. 

565
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,000
I think this was maybe the the 
year Miami and Buffalo played in

566
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,400
the first round and there was a 
high, you know, high over under.

567
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,200
It wasn't that high though, 
because it was freezing cold and

568
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,560
Miami was kind of struggling 
around the stretch a little bit.

569
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:27,360
That's what kept this was the 
year. 

570
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,480
This was the one I really over 
projected Tyree kill because 

571
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,320
he'd had a great year. 
But the narrative and correctly 

572
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,560
that, you know, they were 
cooling off and we're about to 

573
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,400
be awful in the cold was 
correct. 

574
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,040
Anyway, I just thought these 
were interesting when I was 

575
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:45,600
looking back at them today and I
was, I wanted to pull them up 

576
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:47,880
because we always talk about 
like what can happen. 

577
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:49,800
It's good. 
I think it's like it's 

578
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:53,000
informative to look at the 
actual like results of the last 

579
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,160
couple of years and think 
through the ways of the 

580
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,720
different constraints play like,
you know, different. 

581
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:01,640
Yeah, because you want it. 
You're like everyone I pick 

582
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,320
will, you know, score a bunch of
points and then lose if I need 

583
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,680
them to lose and it's going to 
get chaotic. 

584
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,240
But you can still win that way. 
Yeah. 

585
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,760
So, Dave? 
You've been previously you were 

586
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,080
way back when the Gronk 
Whisperer. 

587
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,440
What's what's what kind of 
whispering have you been doing 

588
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:18,960
from afar here? 
What do you? 

589
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,360
Like, I think the interesting 
thing is when you guys were 

590
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,320
talking through things, one of 
the ideas that kind of 

591
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,680
crystallized to me a little bit 
more was we've talked a lot 

592
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,640
about the wide openness of 
things allowing us to like play 

593
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,720
different, like lots of 
different combinations. 

594
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,960
But I was as you're as you're 
talking through Pat, I was 

595
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,640
thinking about like, man, maybe 
the whole way to think through 

596
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,640
this is there's just more things
that you can fade than you've 

597
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,000
ever faded before. 
Like you're so focused on like 

598
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,200
who you're going to play and 
like what teams and players are 

599
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:52,800
going to like get into. 
And like in the past, we've kind

600
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:54,960
of had more confidence in what 
the brackets might look like. 

601
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,600
And so we're trying to think of 
like, OK, well, in A1 game 

602
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,960
situation, maybe Hawkinson can 
out score Jefferson. 

603
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,640
But now it's more like, well, 
maybe we should be thinking 

604
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,880
about the advantage that we can 
create versus our opponents is 

605
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,000
fading the situations that 
they're more overconfident in 

606
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,560
when we think things are a 
little bit more wide open. 

607
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,000
That's the first thing that kind
of hit me when we were talking 

608
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,640
about. 
And it's like, OK, so whether 

609
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:23,840
it's especially some of these 
teams like, you know, Buffalo, 

610
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:29,000
New England, where I think the, 
you know, the ownership is 

611
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,400
probably going to be pretty 
condensed on the on the on the 

612
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,840
quarterback relative to some of 
the other skill players that 

613
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:40,360
like those teams are coin flips 
essentially to lose in the first

614
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,080
round. 
And you are not winning this 

615
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:44,840
contest with a quarterback with 
one game. 

616
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:46,800
Like I just can't see how that's
possible. 

617
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:51,080
So I think in some ways that 
like this is ultimately like 

618
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:55,640
maybe it's maybe the leverage 
that we're creating is like not 

619
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,280
necessarily trying to figure out
who's the best play on each 

620
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:02,360
team, but just incorporating 
more of the fades on teams that 

621
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:06,000
the field is very confident are,
you know, need to be in their 

622
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,640
line UPS. 
That's a great point on QB. 

623
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:13,400
The last couple years it's been 
like Alan Jackson, 80, not the 

624
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:17,800
country singer, Josh Allen and 
Lamar Jackson like 80% of the of

625
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,000
the field. 
And we have, I mean it's a lot 

626
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,400
more spread this year. 
I mean, we do have May and Alan.

627
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,440
I think you have them pretty 
pretty heavily to the top 2, but

628
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,160
there's a bunch of dudes around 
10%. 

629
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,240
Like how many cubes did you guys
say are viable this year? 

630
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,600
There's a lot more. 
That's part of why. 

631
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:37,480
I like part of me feels like, 
you know, maybe a Shorty Vegas 

632
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,320
pick might ultimately be right 
that I had Lawrence a little 

633
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,320
low, like Lawrence is a comfier 
click. 

634
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,920
Then I was feeling like he like 
I'm like, I kind of want to play

635
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,360
Lawrence, you know, if he's 
going to be 10%. 

636
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:52,880
So maybe he isn't 10%, maybe 
he's like 12 or 13 or something 

637
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:57,640
like that, but I don't know 
exactly where it comes from 

638
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,320
because I don't think I have 
Alan at 25. 

639
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,080
I don't think he's going to get 
much below that. 

640
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,000
May at 33. 
That doesn't seem super hot. 

641
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:08,720
Maybe it's a little hot, but 
there's this like push and pull 

642
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,160
of you kind of feel like, you 
know. 

643
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,000
I think you could feel 
overplaying Stafford. 

644
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:17,880
I could see them a little 
overplaying Stafford, but then 

645
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,240
you have to give up Puka. 
I've got him at 7%, which I 

646
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:21,680
honestly think kind of is 
overplaying him. 

647
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:26,240
But yeah, the Lawrence thing, 
you're like, well, I want to 

648
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:30,800
play Lawrence, but ETN is like 
very popular in the, you know, 

649
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:34,680
the the playoff tournaments, the
gauntlet and stuff that I was 

650
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:36,640
drafting in some mitten threes 
today. 

651
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:41,080
He's going as early as ever. 
And so people like Lawrence and 

652
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:43,720
then you also have Cam Little as
I talked about. 

653
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:45,840
And then you have people want to
play Allen. 

654
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:47,800
It's like, am I really and play 
Lawrence over Allen? 

655
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,920
Allen's projecting great and 
he's Allen. 

656
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,880
So there's like I'm just the 
quarterback thing is kind of 

657
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,760
tough for me to gauge this year.
I think it will be more spread 

658
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:00,560
out and I have it way more 
spread out than usual. 

659
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,240
But I'm trying to figure out if 
it's going to be like way, way 

660
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,760
more spread out than the typical
year or does it kind of condense

661
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,920
around Allen and May, you know, 
making up well over half the 

662
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:15,679
field? 
Yeah, I think it makes sense why

663
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:20,880
Lawrence feels so good because 
it's been so spread out and then

664
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:25,280
the one constant is when they 
crush Lawrence is leading the 

665
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,679
charge. 
And so you like it's a really 

666
00:34:27,679 --> 00:34:29,880
you almost have to play them in 
a loss if you're playing a non 

667
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,560
Lawrence, like I think 
immediately when you jump to two

668
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:35,920
games with the Jags, it's like, 
man, how is it? 

669
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,840
How is it not Lawrence? 
That's the the guy there. 

670
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:45,360
Mike, you were, you were looking
like maybe a quarterback could 

671
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,239
win in A1 game situation, do you
think? 

672
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,719
That's I, I think it, I think 
this year is weird. 

673
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:53,320
I mean, it's certainly 
suboptimal to buy a long shots, 

674
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:56,920
but I do think like a Buffalo 
Jacksonville shootout, like 

675
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,840
those quarterbacks could 
potentially get there where the.

676
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:01,840
Prize He thinks Josh Allen could
do it. 

677
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,440
The. 
Wouldn't, wouldn't the quarter, 

678
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,960
wouldn't the quarterback who's 
advancing in that shootout like,

679
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:11,360
be much more like? 
Well, if you get like, you know,

680
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,600
a a big James Cook game in 
advance and you're not, I mean, 

681
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,200
I'm not saying it's. 
Likely, you know, I see what 

682
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,600
you're saying, yeah. 
Like it's it's going to take 

683
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,040
something weird for it to 
happen, but the NFC skill 

684
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:28,840
players really are better plays 
than their quarterbacks kind of 

685
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:33,400
across the board. 
And that's where Stafford feels 

686
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:35,720
really bad to me. 
Because Stafford. 

687
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:41,800
Like Stafford a bad play. 
Like if you you want Stafford to

688
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:45,560
outscore Puka, the better chance
Stafford has of outscoring puka 

689
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:51,120
and Puka not lapping the other 
skill position players is in a 

690
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,840
smaller number of games. 
And why do you want to be 

691
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,040
playing your quarterback to play
in a smaller number of games? 

692
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:02,040
Like that's, that's so like 
Stafford feels particularly bad 

693
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:04,240
to me. 
I think the Stafford argument, 

694
00:36:04,240 --> 00:36:06,720
which again I don't, I don't 
think he's a good play, but the 

695
00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:12,560
I think the argument would be he
paces with puka and then he goes

696
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:14,920
nuts in the Super Bowl and you 
get double points in the Super 

697
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,360
Bowl. 
And all the TS go to Adams. 

698
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,760
Yeah, T DS go to Adams or you 
know, the tight ends. 

699
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:23,560
It's very, I think. 
I think it's thin too. 

700
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,920
It's just I think I I can see 
people doing it though. 

701
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,600
I could see people even doing it
like way more than they should. 

702
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:35,920
But just going back to the QB in
one game, it's like, I mean, 

703
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,400
you've got a really low total 
game in Houston, Pittsburgh with

704
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:44,200
you've got really good defenses 
with Houston and Denver in the 

705
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,520
AFC playoffs. 
You've got all the really good 

706
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:50,200
skill players, better plays and 
their quarterbacks in the NFC 

707
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:57,360
with JSN, you know, over darn 
old CMC Kittle over Purdy, you 

708
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,880
know, Hertz is probably the most
compelling one. 

709
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:02,560
But even then you're you know, 
you're dealing with Saquon, 

710
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,960
who's got this really good match
up to start and then possibly 

711
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:09,160
Chicago around 2:00 so that this
week, this year could just get 

712
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:10,920
weird. 
You know, I do think it's a year

713
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:14,440
where you could maybe think 
about optionality a little bit 

714
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,960
more where you don't have to tie
your team to a single bracket. 

715
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,680
Like obviously you want to play 
with a bracket in mind, but you 

716
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:24,800
can play with like some teams 
might just be more robust where 

717
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,680
like you have multiple outs and 
like, obviously if it breaks a 

718
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:29,640
certain way, you definitely 
don't want your quarterback 

719
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,920
playing one game. 
But you know, you might just 

720
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,440
have all these little bit of 
outs that help, you know, the EV

721
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,840
of of a team on the fade thing 
real quick, just because I think

722
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,360
we'll talk about the fades and 
then we end up on the 

723
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,600
quarterbacks. 
But it does look like 

724
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:44,440
Pittsburgh's probably over 
faded. 

725
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:48,080
And then you could just take a 
little bit more fade on like a 

726
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,800
lot of teams. 
And you know, Dink mentioned 

727
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:54,200
Buffalo, Jacksonville, their 
coin flips to lose. 

728
00:37:55,200 --> 00:38:00,480
Chicago is probably a decent 
fade with how they could be 

729
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:03,720
spread out and not have a lot of
completion reception volume. 

730
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:07,680
So those those were some of the 
ones I was looking at. 

731
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:20,320
Yeah, not note about the Q BS is
I mean or just I don't know. 

732
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:20,880
I'm sorry. 
Go ahead. 

733
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:24,120
What were you going to say? 
Pat no, I kind of lost my train 

734
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:25,880
of thought. 
I was distracted by a comment 

735
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,640
that said that Hertz is going to
be 5% in the play of the 

736
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,680
tournament. 
And it's like the reason he 

737
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:34,160
won't be 5% is because you think
you'd be the play of the right 

738
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:36,800
at that level. 
Like that's why he won't be 5%. 

739
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,600
But he's a pretty good play. 
I was distracted by by. 

740
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:43,120
Leone like in your head? 
All Yeah, well, it's easy to 

741
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:44,840
have in my head because he's 
commenting a lot. 

742
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,480
I was distracted by Leone very 
casually telling Dick that 

743
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,520
Chicago was Fade. 
Was I? 

744
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,880
I noticed. 
I noticed smiling. 

745
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:57,400
Along I noticed that. 
I noticed that. 

746
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,640
I'm delicate. 
I'm like you Gretsch, coming in 

747
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,800
with a hammer. 
Noticed that noticed that. 

748
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:06,880
I think I mean I keep delicate 
like honestly like when the when

749
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:13,560
the bears lose, it will likely 
be in a situation where their 

750
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:16,880
defense just cannot get off the 
field and they are suppressed 

751
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:20,560
play volume and like that is 
what the Packers love to do. 

752
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,680
So love that shit like SO or 
anyone in. 

753
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:29,000
Particular. 
Yeah, so I mean, I, I just like 

754
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:31,440
from a contest standpoint, I 
totally get it. 

755
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,760
Cuz they we've seen like a 
number of games the Bears have 

756
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:39,480
against like these teams that 
can ball control that they only 

757
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,880
get like two or three offensive 
possessions and a half. 

758
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:46,520
And if Kate, like if Caleb isn't
in rhythm early, like, it gets 

759
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:50,080
ugly. 
The the thing I was going to I 

760
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:53,600
was trying to think through was 
in past years when we had like 

761
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:57,160
Alan and Lamar as our QB for 
most of our lineups, when we 

762
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,400
went away from them, we felt 
like the other QB would be 

763
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:02,040
pretty low, low owned. 
We did some like Jane Daniels 

764
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:04,040
last year. 
And you're like, yeah, I mean, 

765
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,760
you're, you're kind of you're 
getting different at QB. 

766
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,680
You're kind of going to need to 
or you can play a little bit 

767
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:13,520
more chalk or what have you. 
But even though we had this like

768
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:18,240
pretty concentrated quarterback 
situation, it always felt like 

769
00:40:18,240 --> 00:40:21,320
it was really I, I with this 
contest, I always get to this 

770
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:23,120
thing where it's like it feels 
like a 12 light parlay. 

771
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:25,680
It's not like DFS where you can 
like limit the number of things 

772
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:26,840
you have to get right and all 
that stuff. 

773
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:30,320
And you guys were talking about 
keeping the optionality open 

774
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,640
this year, making it even 
harder. 

775
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,120
The one way you can try to try 
to correlate things is picking 

776
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,760
an actual bracket. 
But this year so wide open, they

777
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,520
were kind of like, how do we 
keep more doors open in some of 

778
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:44,200
these line UPS? 
It feels impossible to get this 

779
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:46,720
twelve leg parlay right. 
It was already impossible when 

780
00:40:46,720 --> 00:40:48,920
we had other things. 
I think This is why I'm so 

781
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:50,600
fixated. 
I'm going back to that San 

782
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:54,720
Francisco thing where I liked 
playing either CMC or Kittle or 

783
00:40:54,720 --> 00:40:57,480
like I really like just playing 
a lot of Jackson Smith and Jig 

784
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,240
by this year. 
Or I think you can, I think you 

785
00:41:00,240 --> 00:41:02,960
can fade Seattle, but I 
basically don't want to play 

786
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:06,640
anyone else on on Seattle's 
player pool. 

787
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:09,000
Maybe maybe a little bit of 
their kicker or whatever. 

788
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:12,000
But puka, I want to play like a 
lot of puka. 

789
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:15,880
Like because there's so much 
different stuff that you can do 

790
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:20,000
at quarterback and there's so 
much you can do bracket wise and

791
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,640
it's so hard to pick the bracket
correctly. 

792
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:28,800
Like if you do a very bullish 
Jaguar pick and like a Bears, 

793
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:34,480
like we could see a Jaguars 
Bears Super Bowl and that who's 

794
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,480
going to win it would. 
Be pretty great for some playoff

795
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:38,080
teams I've drafted recently to 
be honest. 

796
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:43,480
There's not going to be a ton of
FFTC builds that leverage that. 

797
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:48,480
And yeah, I mean, that's why I'm
saying like the other random 

798
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:49,720
teams. 
That there's a lot of ways to 

799
00:41:49,720 --> 00:41:52,120
get different that there's. 
A lot of ways. 

800
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:54,760
A lot of times we're like, how 
do we get different fading 

801
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:58,160
Jefferson for Hawkinson, which 
was a good move and and helped 

802
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:00,720
us and ended up being in the 
winning lineup. 

803
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:03,640
That's that's kind of the the 
most obvious way to do it. 

804
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:05,480
But this year, yeah, you can do 
it in other ways. 

805
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:09,280
One, one of the things I, I just
want to throw out there, I, I 

806
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,880
wonder if people, and I've heard
this idea that like the winner 

807
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,640
of the Jags Bills game wins the 
Super Bowl. 

808
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:20,200
I wonder if you do see people 
enter lineups with like I'm 

809
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,560
entering 2 lineups this year and
one's one's Josh Allen and the 

810
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:25,800
others Trevor Lawrence, you 
know, and you kind of just like 

811
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:29,040
play that game both ways and 
then you kind of build around 

812
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:33,040
like a similar core, but you 
build around that well, I. 

813
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,520
Was just thinking about that. 
Like the two things that 

814
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:38,640
everyone wants to do is there's 
all these quarterbacks everyone 

815
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:42,600
wants to play and there's all 
these like really kind of smart,

816
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:47,320
but big fades to make on stuff 
the field's overconfident on. 

817
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:51,040
And yet there's only three spots
for those one quarterback in two

818
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:52,720
fades. 
And so I, I think you'll 

819
00:42:52,720 --> 00:42:56,600
probably see a lot of cycling 
through just those spots and 

820
00:42:56,600 --> 00:43:00,440
people being way more condensed 
on, on the other main plays. 

821
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:03,080
Yeah. 
And if you think about 

822
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:08,840
quarterback a little bit more, 
the the Los Angeles stuff 

823
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:14,120
obviously makes May a little bit
more comfy if you're like now, 

824
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,640
should it, should it have a huge
effect on May's ownership if 

825
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:19,920
Hampton isn't 100%? 
Probably not. 

826
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:22,520
But like, I'm not playing 
Hampton now. 

827
00:43:22,720 --> 00:43:24,600
I'm probably not even playing a 
Charger. 

828
00:43:25,240 --> 00:43:27,240
Well, I'm fading the Chargers 
and I'm trying to figure out who

829
00:43:27,240 --> 00:43:30,200
I'm gonna play a quarterback. 
New England becomes more 

830
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:32,120
attractive because I'm already 
fading their opponent. 

831
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:36,280
So I think it probably helps May
and just solidifies May. 

832
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,360
And then we talked about maybe 
people actually, if they're 

833
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,720
playing multiple line UPS, have 
an Allen and have a Lawrence. 

834
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:46,680
So I think I think those three 
are probably going to be the top

835
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:52,240
three and then Hertz not far 
behind, which would be a shame 

836
00:43:52,240 --> 00:43:53,920
because I would like people to 
play Stafford. 

837
00:43:55,240 --> 00:43:57,840
I still think he's going to get 
played more than he should. 

838
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:00,400
Like I, I, I think there's 
enough people that aren't 

839
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,720
thinking through the teammates 
scoring enough and they're going

840
00:44:02,720 --> 00:44:07,520
to play the potential MVP on 
team that's massively favored 

841
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:09,880
week 1. 
I could be wrong but I I think 

842
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:13,840
people play it. 
I don't know if Donald gets any 

843
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:16,160
or I'm not. 
I'm taking him down to 1. 

844
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:23,480
The the Galaxy brain play at 
quarterback is is Justin 

845
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,160
Herbert. 
If you really want a low owned 

846
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,600
QB and the AF CS open. 
He's got a little bit of 

847
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:33,960
Lawrence in them in terms of 
like sneaky rushing stuff, you 

848
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:37,240
know, really spread out pass 
catchers in terms of separating 

849
00:44:37,240 --> 00:44:39,840
from the teammate. 
This spread round one's only 3 

850
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,640
1/2 match up. 
Round 2 is definitely bad at 

851
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:48,520
Denver, but the look ahead line 
on that spread is not that wide 

852
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:52,880
either. 
I pushed back on the Herbert 

853
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:57,160
play because I don't think you 
even have to like now it's 

854
00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:01,520
spread out enough that maybe my 
this hurts my argument, but you 

855
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:04,920
don't have to like get that 
crazy because just like playing 

856
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:09,120
any charger puts you, you know, 
probably like maybe 1/3 of the 

857
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:11,600
field even play the charger 
skill player. 

858
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:16,200
Yeah, but if you get a charger, 
Super Bowl run. 

859
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,880
I'm still getting it right. 
Dominates you have separated in 

860
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,920
a huge way from so many teams, 
whereas if you just did the 

861
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:27,000
Chargers skill player, you 
haven't separated in that same 

862
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:28,520
way. 
Yeah, like I was thinking you 

863
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:31,360
might win the. 
Tournament with like 4 mistakes 

864
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:33,880
if you have. 
Herb if it's if it's Herb, yeah,

865
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,360
I I guess I just I don't believe
in the Chargers at all to make a

866
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:37,840
run. 
I think they can beat the Pats, 

867
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:43,480
but I think they'd probably get 
smoked by the the Broncos with 

868
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:45,720
the with their offensive line 
against the Broncos D. 

869
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:49,280
Yeah, I think I'm going to look 
it up now, though. 

870
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:53,440
I think the the look ahead line 
wasn't like that big there. 

871
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:58,880
It's three points. 
Denver's -3 against Lac next 

872
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:00,960
week. 
Like I'm not saying it's likely,

873
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:04,040
but you're just I think 
everyone's thought is your 

874
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,400
thought. 
There's no way and. 

875
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:07,760
I think you're right. 
I think you're right about 3. 

876
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:12,080
And a half points spread and a 
three-point spread and like, and

877
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:15,120
then obviously now you can win. 
Now Herbert can be the winner in

878
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,120
three games. 
You know, if he goes to the 

879
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:21,440
Super Bowl, it's one of the 
plays you're not playing a ton 

880
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,000
of Justin Herbert. 
But it there aren't a lot of 

881
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:27,080
plays you can make in this 
tournament where it's like you 

882
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:30,280
bank that play and you can make 
a lot of mistakes in your 

883
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:32,320
lineup. 
He's one of them where you get 

884
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:34,400
this one thing right. 
The Chargers go to the Super 

885
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:39,400
Bowl and you've given yourself 
so much wiggle room over. 

886
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:41,000
I. 
Don't think you have to get. 

887
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:45,240
First over a large part of the 
field, but I don't think you can

888
00:46:45,240 --> 00:46:47,920
make a lot of mistakes still. 
That's the thing that I always 

889
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,520
come to. 
Is like, it's really good. 

890
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:55,120
You can you can make like 3 or 4
like decent mistakes small I 

891
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:58,400
think and still I like like you 
go to that. 

892
00:46:58,400 --> 00:46:59,840
I think that would be a game 
changer. 

893
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:03,560
Like he's like, so Jake Ferguson
that year wasn't didn't end up 

894
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:06,240
on the winner. 
He outscored CD Lamb by 23 

895
00:47:06,240 --> 00:47:08,760
points and he was, he was one 
point. 

896
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:11,320
He was higher owned than we have
Herbert projected this year. 

897
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:15,200
For sure I would call that a 
small mistake because he was 

898
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:18,720
1.3%. 
But Herbert's projected at 1%. 

899
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:20,200
No, no. 
Oh, sorry. 

900
00:47:20,240 --> 00:47:24,200
You're saying I I was, I was 
misunderstanding if you had so 

901
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:25,920
if you had. 
That was in a loss. 

902
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:27,920
I mean, he could have been. 
You're saying you can make three

903
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:30,080
or four other mistakes in your 
lineup. 

904
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:32,800
What are you saying? 
Yeah, you you've got some 

905
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:36,080
wiggle, but if you're getting a 
big win, like some of these 

906
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:39,920
routes is like you talk about 
hitting the perfect parlay, like

907
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:43,560
some of the routes is like this 
team is more likely than another

908
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:45,040
team hit the perfect parlay, 
right? 

909
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:47,480
Like, and and some teams like 
that are good. 

910
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,400
Like it's still going to be hard
to hit the perfect parlay, but 

911
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:51,200
we're gambling like that's 
that's what this is. 

912
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,200
But there's other routes, which 
is like, hey, if I get this one 

913
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:56,720
thing right now and now I don't 
have to hit the perfect, you 

914
00:47:56,720 --> 00:47:58,360
know, parlay or. 
You don't have to hit the 

915
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:01,200
perfect parlay and I don't think
you have to hit it necessarily 

916
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:03,560
in all situations either. 
I'm not. 

917
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:05,960
I'm not trying to, yeah. 
I mean, you're not trying to 

918
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:11,000
make 3 or 4 mistakes, but right?
Well, so the like Shorty Shorty 

919
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:12,480
is. 
To even fill out the rest of 

920
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:16,000
this team Shorty. 
Says you win the tournament. 

921
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:17,520
The Chargers make the Super 
Bowl. 

922
00:48:18,240 --> 00:48:19,920
Leoni nails the Herbert take 
even. 

923
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:24,000
You know he's saying that like 
that's just wrong. 

924
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:25,840
I'm certain that's wrong. 
You can't. 

925
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:27,600
You don't just win the 
tournament by playing him. 

926
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:31,680
Even Jake Ferguson at 1.3% was 
in 100 or so lineups. 

927
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,000
I think there was. 
There's 7800 lineups this year. 

928
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:38,160
1.3% of that is almost exactly 
100 and he wasn't in the winning

929
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:41,000
lineup even though there was 100
versions of Ferguson lineups. 

930
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:44,160
Like it's you don't just win the
tournament over the other 

931
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:46,240
hundred teams. 
You still got to be 99th 

932
00:48:46,240 --> 00:48:48,400
percentile to beat 100 teams, 
right? 

933
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:52,280
Like of the Ferguson teams and 
that wasn't good enough 

934
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:54,280
compared. 
To getting a low owned 

935
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:56,440
quarterback. 
Way more valuable than getting a

936
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:58,760
low owned actually. 
Playing right? 

937
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,600
No. 
No, yeah, 'cause you're probably

938
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:04,400
less valuable. 
You're it's more valuable 'cause

939
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:08,080
you're probably separating. 
It's probably more than 23 

940
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,360
points optimal, which was what 
Ferguson was. 

941
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,280
It's probably even more than. 
That also Ben think of it if he 

942
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:17,240
goes to the Super Bowl, this is 
this is a bracket where may 

943
00:49:17,240 --> 00:49:20,840
Allen and Lawrence. 
Didn't make you've killed. 

944
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:23,480
And they're going to be a huge 
part of the field. 

945
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:28,200
Right, they have, Leonie said. 
It's more than 23 points. 

946
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,360
It is, but his teammates are 
going to come along as well. 

947
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:32,000
And and there's not going to be 
a ton of people that are going 

948
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:35,040
to play Chargers teammates, but 
like Omarion Hampton will be 

949
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:37,240
viable in some forms of of the 
build. 

950
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:41,400
You could play the NFCQB with 
Omarion Hampton versus Herbert 

951
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:44,360
with the NFC skill guy. 
I mean, you're not going to. 

952
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:46,720
It might only be. 23 points 
literally yes. 

953
00:49:46,720 --> 00:49:49,040
You're not guaranteed to have 
the winner, but like. 

954
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:50,920
No, I'm just, I'm not taking it 
literally. 

955
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:52,840
I don't know. 
I, I don't know. 

956
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,000
I just, I think about, I don't 
know. 

957
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:57,240
I feel like I'm on an island. 
I'm just trying to make the 

958
00:49:57,240 --> 00:50:01,920
Super Bowl. 
You know, there's a very high 

959
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:06,160
likelihood that assuming 
Herbert's 1%, that one of those 

960
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:13,040
70 teams wins. 
I think it's a pretty powerful 

961
00:50:13,040 --> 00:50:16,000
play if you think the chargers 
can make a run, which I don't, 

962
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,320
but that's why it's a powerful 
play because no one thinks that.

963
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:22,440
So then you but and it's it's 
it's boosted by the fact that 

964
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:27,320
you you wipe out the other AFC 
quarterbacks. 

965
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:29,680
I guess it's a little annoying 
that their path only runs 

966
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:32,440
through Meg and then Nicks. 
And so like you do potentially 

967
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:38,120
run into Allen in three being 
optimal or Lawrence in three 

968
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:41,920
being optimal. 
So it's not as clean as if they 

969
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:44,120
would play like the Bills in 
round two or something, but. 

970
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:49,480
My main point on the on the on 
the, on the point about 

971
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:53,440
Ferguson, the year that Ferguson
was really good, he was in 100 

972
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:56,520
line UPS is that you still have 
to get 11 different things in 

973
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:59,200
addition to that, right? 
There was 100 iterations of 

974
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:01,720
that. 
And though when you do make 

975
00:51:01,720 --> 00:51:04,160
three or four more other 
mistakes, you, I think you do 

976
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:06,480
end up giving up that edge. 
Maybe the Herbert edge would be 

977
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:08,520
larger in a Super Bowl run, to 
your point, Leone, but. 

978
00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:12,000
Yeah, and again, there's. 
All I think you'd make up more. 

979
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:15,400
Points to make those mistakes. 
In fact, you're probably playing

980
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:18,920
it a decent bit chalkier, you 
know, around it. 

981
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:25,400
Yeah, yeah. 
It would be. 

982
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:26,400
It would be definitely. 
Helpful. 

983
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:28,360
If it wasn't risky, he wouldn't 
be 1%. 

984
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:31,760
I mean, I, I think on the NFC 
side, like, you know, Caleb 

985
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:34,280
Williams is probably a decent 
play too. 

986
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:37,840
I like the Herbert one better 
because Pat's point about like 

987
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:41,440
you're taking out some of the 
AFC quarterbacks along with it. 

988
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:47,360
But you know, Caleb on the other
side is also, you know, if you 

989
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:50,840
want to play like Ben saying 
there's a lot of good chalk on 

990
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:52,760
the skill players and if you 
want to. 

991
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:56,480
The Chad is saying this too. 
You're comparing one game of 

992
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:57,800
Ferguson to four games of 
Herbert. 

993
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:01,320
That is not the comparison. 
It is not that direct. 

994
00:52:01,720 --> 00:52:04,480
It is four games of Herbert and 
his teammates. 

995
00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:08,720
It's a different it's there's 
always the other side is moving 

996
00:52:08,720 --> 00:52:11,640
with it. 
It's not Herbert sport 100 total

997
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:14,320
points. 
It can do that, but it's not 

998
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,920
guaranteed it's. 
Of course it's not guaranteed, 

999
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:20,200
but you you could pick up 80 
points, you know? 

1000
00:52:20,240 --> 00:52:21,440
You could pick up a lot of 
points. 

1001
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:24,040
You could you could I? 
It's obviously it could be very.

1002
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:24,800
Valuable. 
I could just. 

1003
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,000
Say it's. 
It's not this simple and I think

1004
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:28,400
people think. 
These other thing. 

1005
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:32,120
These low end plays, like I can 
just get one 1% play right and 

1006
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:33,760
then play all the chalk and then
I'll be fine. 

1007
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:35,640
That's not really how to play 
this the tournament. 

1008
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:38,320
It's not that it's not valuable.
That's not really how you play 

1009
00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:39,520
it, man. 
But it's. 

1010
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:43,200
It's context of the chalk. 
It's the context of this 

1011
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:46,720
particular play does make it 
like a more viable obviously 

1012
00:52:46,720 --> 00:52:49,400
wouldn't play like every single 
you would do some other smart 

1013
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:52,000
things. 
But the, the other thing, like I

1014
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:54,880
think Dink brought up earlier, 
you know, some of these fade 

1015
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:57,400
teams and he said it in kind of 
a roundabout way because because

1016
00:52:57,400 --> 00:52:59,880
he's a nice guy who doesn't even
text his buddy back who harasses

1017
00:52:59,880 --> 00:53:01,640
him about the Packers when the 
Bears win. 

1018
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:05,600
And he didn't want to say that 
fading the, the fading Drake May

1019
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:09,720
was super, super sharp. 
But you do fade Drake May in a 

1020
00:53:09,720 --> 00:53:11,960
game where a lot of people are 
going to have them and they 

1021
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:16,040
could pretty easily lose. 
I only have 9% of the field hard

1022
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:20,320
or soft fading New England. 
I could see myself, I could see 

1023
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:22,120
that actually being over 
projected. 

1024
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:25,560
So it's just a, it's another, 
you're combining 2 plays in a 

1025
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:27,960
way fading New England, which is
probably a sharp pivot. 

1026
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:32,080
And then you're fading it 
directly through the quarterback

1027
00:53:32,080 --> 00:53:33,440
who could then go on to make a 
run. 

1028
00:53:34,720 --> 00:53:38,160
So I I'm again, I don't love the
play, but I no it's I totally 

1029
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:40,320
see the logic. 
And I'm not, I'm not, I'm not 

1030
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:41,920
trying to like argue with you 
guys. 

1031
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:45,560
It's more the way I think the 
some of the chat is taking what 

1032
00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:47,360
you guys are saying with some of
the comments that I'm reading 

1033
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:50,640
that I'm like I, I just really 
don't think it's as simple as I.

1034
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:53,560
I think they're using some of 
their words a little liberally, 

1035
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:56,680
you know? 
Yeah, you guys want to have 

1036
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:58,040
Shorty on the show? 
You want to just. 

1037
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:01,000
I have had Shorty. 
On my. 

1038
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:04,320
Shows before, yeah, let's see 
here. 

1039
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:06,280
You guys you want to build a 
line up here? 

1040
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:09,560
Yeah, give me the 1st place so I
can take Herbert. 

1041
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:12,800
I'm not saying Herbert's a bad 
play. 

1042
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:14,800
I want to be clear, you should 
build some Herbert teams. 

1043
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:20,280
It the the whole to me, the 
conversation, it it it's 

1044
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:25,880
unfortunate that there's not 
cleaner ways to play a patriot's

1045
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:28,000
fate. 
That's that's the rub. 

1046
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:28,760
Let's. 
Take Herbert. 

1047
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:30,680
Let's put Herbert in the lineup.
I think we have to build a 

1048
00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:32,960
Herbert lineup now and see how 
it works, yeah. 

1049
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:34,760
Let's do it. 
What have I done? 

1050
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:40,800
All right, who did this? 
There you go. 

1051
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:47,720
But but but Pete, your point 
about I wish there was cleaner 

1052
00:54:47,720 --> 00:54:51,040
ways to fade the Patriots like 
that. 

1053
00:54:52,040 --> 00:54:55,000
Just from the history of like my
experience doing the the 

1054
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:58,680
projections on this, that 
doesn't lead to generally to 

1055
00:54:58,680 --> 00:55:01,240
people like coming up with 
interesting ways to fade the 

1056
00:55:01,240 --> 00:55:03,040
Patriots. 
It's leads, it leads them to not

1057
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:05,240
fading the Patriots. 
And that's what I mean, you 

1058
00:55:05,240 --> 00:55:10,000
know, and so that creates the 
situation where and like, I feel

1059
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:12,400
this way about the Patriots. 
I feel this way about the Bills,

1060
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:18,200
you know about the Bears and the
and the Packers like picking 

1061
00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:21,800
that game. 
So you end up but I probably on 

1062
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:23,960
a given line of only doing like 
two of those. 

1063
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:28,080
So it it it's like even the 
sharp stuff is hard to fit in as

1064
00:55:28,080 --> 00:55:31,640
far as these contrarian fades. 
I kind of think though, like 

1065
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:34,560
once you like, once you do 
something like this, this is 

1066
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:37,320
what I was trying to get out 
with the, it's almost more about

1067
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:40,080
the fades than like the pivots 
you do. 

1068
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:44,520
You do 1 fade like this and it's
like you can kind of play 

1069
00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:47,800
whatever you want from here in 
terms of like the chalk pieces. 

1070
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:50,600
Looks like I say you you want to
do 1 contrarian pivot in this 

1071
00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:53,120
tournament and then just build 
the chalk the rest of the way. 

1072
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:58,640
Right, that's all you need. 
Like maybe 1 slightly more 

1073
00:55:58,640 --> 00:56:02,240
contrarian pivot, but like it's 
two, it's two at it's two at 

1074
00:56:02,240 --> 00:56:06,480
once because you got Herbert 
with I don't know what. 

1075
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:09,040
We probably take New England 
kicker or something. 

1076
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:13,920
I think you go, you want to fade
in one way or another. 

1077
00:56:13,920 --> 00:56:16,320
I mean, honestly, you, what you 
might want to do is, is go New 

1078
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:22,960
England fade, Denver fade. 
Yeah, packed old baby. 

1079
00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:25,160
Right, it's golden. 
Leverage. 

1080
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:28,640
Terrain full leverage. 
Oh, Mama. 

1081
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:31,520
Yeah, yeah. 
Pardon, they said. 

1082
00:56:31,520 --> 00:56:34,680
The Red Sea we're not. 
Winning with Herbert unless they

1083
00:56:34,720 --> 00:56:36,960
win two games. 
We need them to win two games, 

1084
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:40,240
yes. 
So we just go New England fade. 

1085
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:43,680
Broncos fade. 
Bori Gallus, Denver, DST. 

1086
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:46,760
I'm saying full fade. 
Oh, you're saying full fade? 

1087
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:49,440
Yeah, take some sacks in that 
loss. 

1088
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:53,320
We could go, we could go Denver 
DST because like maybe, maybe, 

1089
00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:58,440
maybe he's optimal in two, but 
but that still feels weak 

1090
00:56:58,440 --> 00:56:59,720
because then we just have the 
DST going. 

1091
00:56:59,720 --> 00:57:01,920
So I think we I think we do full
fade on both of. 

1092
00:57:01,920 --> 00:57:05,120
You got to play a shitty DST. 
I'd rather it'd be Denver's DST.

1093
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:09,440
Of the two. 
Yeah, whatever we can we. 

1094
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:14,280
Can I think we full fade both? 
Wow, then where are you slotting

1095
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:17,920
Panthers in? 
Tedaroya. 

1096
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:21,080
You do have Denver DST very 
owned. 

1097
00:57:21,080 --> 00:57:24,880
I wasn't factoring that in Pat. 
Yeah, they're pretty chalky 

1098
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:27,080
because if you're not playing, 
but. 

1099
00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:31,080
What galas isn't owned much 
anyways? 

1100
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:33,040
I'll I'll I'll claim the Herbert
pick. 

1101
00:57:33,040 --> 00:57:34,440
You guys can interview that to 
me. 

1102
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:35,800
I. 
Just like the additional out of 

1103
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:37,480
getting a game wrong but still 
having the kicker, the. 

1104
00:57:37,480 --> 00:57:39,400
DI do think Herbert's a good 
play. 

1105
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:42,280
He's a better than than his 
ownership like you should be 

1106
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:44,000
overweight Herbert if you have a
big portfolio all. 

1107
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:48,160
Right, let's go around the horn.
Leone's claiming. 

1108
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:53,440
Herbert Dink, you're up next. 
Well, gentlemen, I'm glad we 

1109
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:57,000
started Contrarian. 
Let's lock in Colston, Loveland,

1110
00:57:57,000 --> 00:58:01,160
baby. 
You're either gonna say Josh 

1111
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:03,480
Jacobs or Colston Loveland, and 
I wasn't sure which. 

1112
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:09,560
There you go. 
You Gretch or no. 

1113
00:58:09,560 --> 00:58:10,920
Is it me? 
We can go around the horn. 

1114
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:13,320
Yeah, yeah. 
I'll keep some layups going in 

1115
00:58:13,320 --> 00:58:14,240
here. 
I'll throw JS in. 

1116
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:21,200
I was gonna take Jason. 
I'll take, I'll do puka. 

1117
00:58:22,120 --> 00:58:24,320
Yep. 
Someone else can get contran. 

1118
00:58:24,320 --> 00:58:25,720
I've been talking about type 
playing Chuck. 

1119
00:58:30,640 --> 00:58:34,240
Let's see. 
I'll do Nico Collins. 

1120
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:40,880
There you go back to Leone. 
To Ben's point, there are still 

1121
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:43,280
going to be like, you know, 70 
other Herbert lineup. 

1122
00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:46,400
So he's right that we can't just
auto win it. 

1123
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:48,120
I'm not setting up for something
crazy. 

1124
00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:51,040
Counterpoint, if you've done 
Herbert, you're already more 

1125
00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:53,920
willing to Galaxy brain in the 
rest of the lineup, in which 

1126
00:58:53,920 --> 00:59:01,280
case I'm trying. 
To I'm going to take $4.00. 

1127
00:59:01,280 --> 00:59:03,120
I'm not with Pat on full fading 
New England. 

1128
00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:05,080
I think we should take, I think 
we should take the kicker here, 

1129
00:59:05,080 --> 00:59:08,960
OK, because there's some there's
some shitty teams that we can 

1130
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:11,960
full fade, especially how. 
Many different iterations. 

1131
00:59:11,960 --> 00:59:13,840
I just want the. 
I just wanted the out of if we 

1132
00:59:13,840 --> 00:59:14,560
can. 
Here's a question. 

1133
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:18,360
That game wrong we we don't have
a a fade advancing. 

1134
00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:20,760
I got a question real quick 
before we before. 

1135
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:23,120
We finish this hard soft fade 
advancing is better than a hard 

1136
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:25,520
fade advancing, right? 
Yeah. 

1137
00:59:25,640 --> 00:59:27,720
Or Dad if Herbert loses on one 
anyways. 

1138
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:30,320
Well, I'm saying that right. 
So why would we have a soft fade

1139
00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:32,600
opposite and we could put the 
soft fade somewhere else and. 

1140
00:59:33,360 --> 00:59:36,560
Oh, you want the soft fade to be
on a team that could win and 

1141
00:59:36,560 --> 00:59:38,640
still. 
Yeah, I'm getting it now. 

1142
00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:39,400
Sorry. 
That's real. 

1143
00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:41,720
I've been trying to find keep 
Borghalis off the board. 

1144
00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:44,760
I see what you're. 
Seeing if there's 70 Herbert 

1145
00:59:44,760 --> 00:59:49,000
teams, what do you think the 
most duped Herbert lineup is? 

1146
00:59:49,040 --> 00:59:51,560
There's eleven other spots. 
What do you think the most duped

1147
00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:52,600
Herbert lineup is? 
How? 

1148
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:54,520
How many times is a duped out of
70? 

1149
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:58,120
And I think people won't full 
fade New England. 

1150
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:01,280
So I think I. 
Don't know, I'm just saying what

1151
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:03,280
iteration of Herbert will be 
duped the most in this 

1152
01:00:03,280 --> 01:00:05,440
tournament if let's say there's 
exactly 70 teams. 

1153
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:10,360
Just fill in I guess the highest
owned players, so CMC, Saquon, 

1154
01:00:10,920 --> 01:00:14,080
Puka, JSN, Nico Logan. 
ETN. 

1155
01:00:14,280 --> 01:00:16,320
ETN you still have to make a 
tough fade decision. 

1156
01:00:16,440 --> 01:00:18,960
You have to make two tough fade 
decisions because you have 

1157
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:20,800
Chargers. 
And I think people will go 

1158
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:25,560
Denver DST on that one probably 
kind of middle the fade we just.

1159
01:00:25,560 --> 01:00:27,840
What is it 1 Is it dudes? 
So I'll take Carol. 

1160
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:29,480
Who's Carolina? 
I'll take Carolina's kicker 

1161
01:00:29,480 --> 01:00:31,360
here. 
Wait, I wondered an answer to 

1162
01:00:31,360 --> 01:00:33,960
the question like I wanna. 
It's a serious thought 

1163
01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:35,960
experiment. 
Do we have, is it 10 times? 

1164
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:36,960
Is it 2? 
No. 

1165
01:00:37,760 --> 01:00:40,840
No. 
I think there's also a chance 

1166
01:00:40,840 --> 01:00:42,840
that Herbert's like sub 1%, but 
maybe. 

1167
01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:44,880
I mean, I don't know. 
I don't think anyone wants to 

1168
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:46,960
play Justin Herbert. 
But just total thought 

1169
01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:48,800
experiment, Dick, will you 
answer it 'cause these three 

1170
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:49,880
guys? 
Already I'm not totally. 

1171
01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:53,320
I literally just answer. 
Lineups. 

1172
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:58,600
Say 11 players my head. 
Scratch, I said that one to two.

1173
01:00:59,920 --> 01:01:02,520
Of the lineups, once would be 
duped once. 

1174
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:05,440
OK, yes, yeah. 
So you think that most is 2 is 

1175
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:07,120
2? 
It's like 1 dude. 

1176
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:10,880
I thought you were asking us to 
to say the players in the most 

1177
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:12,280
duped. 
So did I, So did I. 

1178
01:01:12,280 --> 01:01:13,320
That's why I was like, what are 
you? 

1179
01:01:13,920 --> 01:01:14,240
No. 
No. 

1180
01:01:14,240 --> 01:01:15,360
Name. 
How many guys? 

1181
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:16,840
No. 
No, no, how many? 

1182
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:22,320
I was like, dude, I don't have 
this in my. 

1183
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:23,280
I was. 
Like he just. 

1184
01:01:23,360 --> 01:01:24,840
Told you what that just like is 
going to. 

1185
01:01:25,000 --> 01:01:27,720
Be up on my head. 
Is why not just jam the best 

1186
01:01:27,720 --> 01:01:30,280
plays if the dupe? 
No, it's it's not even that. 

1187
01:01:30,280 --> 01:01:33,200
I'm just thought experimenting 
on how how can train we have to 

1188
01:01:33,200 --> 01:01:36,320
get if there was 70 lineups of 
Herbert, how many would we 

1189
01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:38,560
actually think the most dupe 
lineup is? 

1190
01:01:38,560 --> 01:01:40,480
And I I didn't know if it was 
eight or two. 

1191
01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:44,000
I was just genuinely kind of 
curious what you guys thought 

1192
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:44,840
on. 
That maybe 3. 

1193
01:01:44,880 --> 01:01:48,720
Three times right off the bat, 
Ryan Fitzgerald at projected 

1194
01:01:48,720 --> 01:01:51,360
ownership of 0.2%. 
Lock it in. 

1195
01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:55,760
OK, well now we're not duping, 
but now you can just jam all the

1196
01:01:55,760 --> 01:02:00,120
best plays 0.2%. 
I didn't. 

1197
01:02:00,960 --> 01:02:03,280
I don't have points so I don't 
know where Leon is getting that.

1198
01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:09,280
I don't use decimal places in 
this ship man. 

1199
01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:12,080
It's live ownership for this one
that was just added. 

1200
01:02:12,200 --> 01:02:16,000
Yeah. 
Talk to Sam Bright. 

1201
01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:23,800
About that 1%, I have it 1%. 
We're going to have to full fade

1202
01:02:23,920 --> 01:02:26,440
good teams now because we have 
Carolina in there. 

1203
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:29,080
We have the Chargers in there. 
Yeah, sure. 

1204
01:02:29,200 --> 01:02:30,440
Yep. 
Oh, New England's already full 

1205
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:32,560
faded. 
Right New England, Denver. 

1206
01:02:32,560 --> 01:02:33,480
That's. 
How it fade? 

1207
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:35,720
I thought we wanted a kicker 
that was going to win. 

1208
01:02:36,880 --> 01:02:39,840
We wanted the out. 
We want the out of if they went 

1209
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:42,000
actually, this is a sharp play 
because everyone's playing puka 

1210
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:45,160
anyway and so you and they'll 
full fade Carolina. 

1211
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:47,000
So in the off chance they win, 
we're kind of like, OK. 

1212
01:02:47,440 --> 01:02:51,040
Gotcha. 
Playing as Denver and New 

1213
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:52,760
England, 100%. 
Loose. 

1214
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:54,000
That's a good point. 
Yeah. 

1215
01:02:54,040 --> 01:02:55,000
Puka's got to be. 
You know what? 

1216
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:57,640
Yeah, Puka's on every team, so 
this is like kind of free 

1217
01:02:57,640 --> 01:03:00,280
rolling a kicker. 
Like backing into the Herbert 

1218
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:04,800
thing, I think because his round
two matchup's known, it does 

1219
01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:07,120
also makes those line UPS 
actually a little bit better 

1220
01:03:07,120 --> 01:03:09,680
because you know exactly. 
What, you know exactly to fade, 

1221
01:03:10,080 --> 01:03:13,200
Yeah. 
Yeah, I mean, could you, you 

1222
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:16,920
could say similar for a Packers?
For Packers, yeah, yeah. 

1223
01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:19,040
Which someone was asked about 
Love before, which I I don't 

1224
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:21,080
think he'll be played much. 
And he doesn't wipe out the 

1225
01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:23,760
other AFC quarterbacks. 
You know, there's not, there's 

1226
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:25,920
not going to be that many. 
He also doesn't play Hertz until

1227
01:03:25,920 --> 01:03:28,520
the conference championship 
game, so he doesn't wipe him 

1228
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:30,680
out. 
That makes it less appealing. 

1229
01:03:30,680 --> 01:03:32,360
But I think he's he's an 
interesting play too. 

1230
01:03:33,400 --> 01:03:36,440
All right, I'll do Jacobs 
Grouch's turn. 

1231
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:48,960
CMC. 
So we have, what do we have? 

1232
01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:51,480
Eagles. 
No, we have. 

1233
01:03:52,600 --> 01:03:56,560
We have Bills, Jaguars we 
haven't touched yet, and we have

1234
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:58,480
Steelers. 
Those Jaguars, Steelers. 

1235
01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:02,080
See like this path gets super 
contrarian, which is kind of 

1236
01:04:02,080 --> 01:04:05,240
crazy, but it's not like wrong 
contrarian within the build, 

1237
01:04:05,800 --> 01:04:07,120
right? 
It's just kind of nuts. 

1238
01:04:09,880 --> 01:04:12,560
There's one more team, Bills, 
Jags, Steelers, and who else? 

1239
01:04:12,680 --> 01:04:14,920
Or is there another full fade 
that we already, oh, Broncos? 

1240
01:04:14,920 --> 01:04:17,160
Denver Broncos. 
Yeah, Denver Broncos with full 

1241
01:04:17,160 --> 01:04:21,360
fade. 
So it's Steelers, Eagles and and

1242
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:23,360
Bills to get. 
The wrestling Bills and Jags. 

1243
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:25,480
Oh, Steelers, Bills and Jacks. 
What's our eagle? 

1244
01:04:25,480 --> 01:04:29,760
Oh, Barkley. 
OK, I'll go. 

1245
01:04:29,760 --> 01:04:31,680
James Cook. 
Yeah. 

1246
01:04:34,000 --> 01:04:38,840
Jacks, Steelers. 
Well, the charger the seven seed

1247
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:40,720
all right, so they have to play 
Denver we. 

1248
01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:49,080
Have to, yeah, probably should 
take a Jags player. 

1249
01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:50,640
I don't think we need to go 
Steelers. 

1250
01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:51,600
I don't. 
Think we need to go? 

1251
01:04:51,760 --> 01:04:56,000
Yeah. 
So I I guess Etni would just 

1252
01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:58,280
take the chalk there just 
because I don't think we need. 

1253
01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:01,280
Yeah, I love it. 
Seems right to me. 

1254
01:05:02,960 --> 01:05:05,200
Very running back heavy lineup 
which is probably the chalk way 

1255
01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:09,000
to construct as well. 
Just based on the way that that 

1256
01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:11,440
position scores these days. 
Why receivers don't score 

1257
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:15,000
anymore? 
Well, this, this this lineup is 

1258
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:18,200
dovetails with a question I saw 
earlier in the chat saying would

1259
01:05:18,200 --> 01:05:21,280
you aim for a certain amount of 
cumulative ownership? 

1260
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:24,600
And this is like the age-old DFS
question too, where the the 

1261
01:05:24,600 --> 01:05:27,800
product ownership with Herbert 
here is gonna make this look a 

1262
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:30,160
lot, lot better than the 
cumulative, which would look 

1263
01:05:30,160 --> 01:05:33,160
like a near chalk lineup in 
comparison. 

1264
01:05:34,120 --> 01:05:35,720
So this is the chalk plus 
Herbert. 

1265
01:05:35,720 --> 01:05:37,280
It's kind. 
Of because of Fitz. 

1266
01:05:37,640 --> 01:05:40,560
Because of Fitz, Yeah, Fitz is 
sort of the one V1 off the pure 

1267
01:05:40,560 --> 01:05:43,960
chalk, yeah. 
Does it get duped do you guys 

1268
01:05:43,960 --> 01:05:45,680
think? 
I mean well. 

1269
01:05:45,680 --> 01:05:47,960
Well, it might in in a. 
World where it wasn't on chip 

1270
01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:49,760
chasing. 
It wouldn't have. 

1271
01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:51,520
I don't think it would. 
Have it would I don't? 

1272
01:05:51,560 --> 01:05:56,160
Think I'd say I definitely bet 
at even money it's not duped. 

1273
01:05:56,640 --> 01:05:58,080
It wouldn't have been duped, but
yeah. 

1274
01:05:58,440 --> 01:06:00,840
Yeah. 
Don't dupe us, Bros. 

1275
01:06:03,000 --> 01:06:05,720
Pick a different picker. 
Pick a different picker. 

1276
01:06:05,720 --> 01:06:08,200
This. 
Is this is kind of like the 

1277
01:06:08,200 --> 01:06:10,960
perfect representation of the 
point that I was trying to make,

1278
01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:15,080
which is like we spend all these
past years because we feel more 

1279
01:06:15,080 --> 01:06:17,000
confident in the brackets, 
trying to think of like the 

1280
01:06:17,000 --> 01:06:20,440
pivots within teams. 
And now it's like, no, we just 

1281
01:06:20,440 --> 01:06:24,320
picked a fade that's very 
contrarian and just loaded up. 

1282
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:29,920
And it's like if this if the 
Charters make a run and this is 

1283
01:06:29,920 --> 01:06:32,720
exactly the lineup you would 
want, like if if Chargers, if 

1284
01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:36,800
Chargers win and Panthers win, 
is there a different line? 

1285
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:39,040
This is exactly the lineup you'd
want, right? 

1286
01:06:39,680 --> 01:06:41,400
You'd rather have. 
McMillan, I think you'd rather. 

1287
01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:43,200
Have like Ramsbadan. 
McMillan. 

1288
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:46,240
Yeah. 
Like Ben's always talking about 

1289
01:06:46,480 --> 01:06:49,040
how hard it is to hit the the 
parlay of 11. 

1290
01:06:49,080 --> 01:06:55,200
We've kind of just said if the 
Chargers win two games, yeah, 

1291
01:06:55,240 --> 01:06:57,960
odds improved dramatically. 
Obviously not an auto win or 

1292
01:06:57,960 --> 01:06:59,880
anything, but our odds have 
improved dramatically if the 

1293
01:06:59,880 --> 01:07:02,800
Chargers win two games and then 
obviously super good. 

1294
01:07:02,800 --> 01:07:06,120
If they and the Super Bowl and 
if the Panthers like kick a 

1295
01:07:06,120 --> 01:07:08,360
bunch of field goals in a loss, 
like that's actually what we 

1296
01:07:08,360 --> 01:07:11,040
want is Panthers kick a bunch of
field goals in a loss and no one

1297
01:07:11,080 --> 01:07:13,680
takes them because they're like,
I don't want my kicker to be 

1298
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:14,600
eliminated. 
I'll take. 

1299
01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:18,120
Awesome. 
Whatever this is, what's going 

1300
01:07:18,120 --> 01:07:20,120
to happen. 
Pittsburgh's going to beat 

1301
01:07:20,400 --> 01:07:23,640
Houston and Pitt. 
DST is still going to be 

1302
01:07:23,640 --> 01:07:26,640
optimal, and it's going to be 
reverse karma for all the time. 

1303
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:32,080
We. 
Faded Houston DST and they they 

1304
01:07:32,080 --> 01:07:35,080
won and they still. 
Yeah, except you know that 

1305
01:07:35,080 --> 01:07:36,440
Houston DST is going to be 
awesome. 

1306
01:07:37,000 --> 01:07:38,880
We. 
Actually don't win because of 

1307
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:40,960
that. 
I just had flashbacks with this 

1308
01:07:40,960 --> 01:07:44,080
Houston Pitts game. 
Wasn't it that one of the first 

1309
01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:47,760
years we did it where it was 
that Cleveland, Pittsburgh game 

1310
01:07:47,840 --> 01:07:51,040
where it had a low total and 
then just went absolutely 

1311
01:07:51,040 --> 01:07:53,400
insane? 
Juju was the one. 

1312
01:07:53,840 --> 01:07:56,400
Yeah, Leoni was the one on Juju 
that year for sure. 

1313
01:07:56,720 --> 01:07:59,040
Yeah. 
Was it Chubb that buried us or? 

1314
01:07:59,400 --> 01:08:02,200
No, I think Chubb. 
Oh yeah, all the Browns. 

1315
01:08:02,280 --> 01:08:04,560
Yeah, it was bad. 
It went nuts. 

1316
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:07,800
Yeah, I think it was the Monday 
night game too if I recall 

1317
01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:08,680
correctly. 
Jobs. 

1318
01:08:08,800 --> 01:08:10,800
Yeah, it was. 
Yeah, it was the last game of 

1319
01:08:10,800 --> 01:08:12,360
the week. 
Week because we were like oh 

1320
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:14,000
we're. 
In Yeah, we're in great shape. 

1321
01:08:14,000 --> 01:08:16,960
We just need this long game. 
Yeah, I think we had gotten like

1322
01:08:17,040 --> 01:08:17,720
A.J. 
Brown that. 

1323
01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:20,200
Happens just every. 
Year it does, it's always the 

1324
01:08:20,200 --> 01:08:22,080
last game wasn't plus. 
Game the last game. 

1325
01:08:22,200 --> 01:08:23,359
Yeah, I think so. 
God. 

1326
01:08:23,720 --> 01:08:25,600
Damn it, we've had. 
It's always the last. 

1327
01:08:25,600 --> 01:08:27,279
Game we're like. 
Dude, it was the night. 

1328
01:08:27,319 --> 01:08:31,479
Game, we're like, we're so much 
this doesn't happen. 

1329
01:08:31,920 --> 01:08:35,000
Box wasn't the last one, but it 
was on Sunday and then Sunday 

1330
01:08:35,080 --> 01:08:38,920
night all that was left is we 
were like, we need a bunch of 

1331
01:08:38,920 --> 01:08:40,319
Hawkinson. 
And then Hawkinson was kind of 

1332
01:08:40,319 --> 01:08:42,240
good. 
And we spent the whole next week

1333
01:08:42,240 --> 01:08:45,319
like we got a little life, we 
got a little life. 

1334
01:08:46,120 --> 01:08:49,240
Yeah. 
Dude, yeah, 48 to 37. 

1335
01:08:49,319 --> 01:08:52,840
I had to pull this one. 
Up here, Ben completed 47. 

1336
01:08:52,840 --> 01:08:54,840
He would have pulled to Kobe 
Brusett in this game, yeah. 

1337
01:08:55,200 --> 01:08:57,640
We made 40 Leone so hard for 
wanting to. 

1338
01:08:57,640 --> 01:08:59,120
Play Oh, Chubb, wasn't he? 
Oh, Chubb. 

1339
01:08:59,240 --> 01:09:02,960
Chubb, Chubb. 4 for 69 received,
yeah. 

1340
01:09:04,560 --> 01:09:08,000
This game was that's the best 
receiving game of his career. 

1341
01:09:08,000 --> 01:09:10,200
What an. 
Insane way to go down to Chubb. 

1342
01:09:10,359 --> 01:09:15,359
Oh my God. 
Juju's. 

1343
01:09:15,880 --> 01:09:19,160
Only 100 yard game that season 
if I'm not mistaken. 

1344
01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:21,359
He had. 
He had none the whole year and 

1345
01:09:21,359 --> 01:09:23,720
Leonie's like he could though. 
And we're like, we're like 

1346
01:09:23,760 --> 01:09:25,520
Leonie. 
It's not possible man. 

1347
01:09:25,560 --> 01:09:26,080
Was it? 
Was it? 

1348
01:09:27,720 --> 01:09:30,840
Hassan or someone, someone was 
was on my side with it. 

1349
01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:33,760
Sounds like a Hassan might be. 
Yeah, that sounds like a Hassan 

1350
01:09:33,760 --> 01:09:36,200
move to to be correct about 
that. 

1351
01:09:37,200 --> 01:09:38,520
Wow. 
Oh Claypool. 

1352
01:09:38,520 --> 01:09:41,560
This is when Claypool was sweet.
Oh, that's what that that guy 

1353
01:09:41,600 --> 01:09:42,399
was. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1354
01:09:43,560 --> 01:09:46,439
Just this is just such an insane
box score. 

1355
01:09:46,439 --> 01:09:50,960
Like the Pittsburgh rushing too 
is just hilarious. 52 total 

1356
01:09:50,960 --> 01:09:55,560
yards rushing. 
Oh man, yeah, that took me back.

1357
01:09:55,600 --> 01:09:59,640
So what I've now, what I've, 
what I'm remembering looking at 

1358
01:09:59,640 --> 01:10:03,280
that box score is Baker Mayfield
is our nemesis. 

1359
01:10:04,200 --> 01:10:08,440
Whatever Baker Mayfield is 
evolved in one of the last games

1360
01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:12,600
of the Wild Card Weekend. 
So this year, fellas, this is 

1361
01:10:12,640 --> 01:10:13,760
our year. 
This is our game. 

1362
01:10:13,760 --> 01:10:15,920
No Baker. 
No, Baker. 

1363
01:10:16,440 --> 01:10:19,040
Is Carolina Baker adjacent? 
Cuz he like no. 

1364
01:10:19,040 --> 01:10:23,480
OK, but the other no, the other 
game that that one recalled was 

1365
01:10:24,200 --> 01:10:28,840
the Packers, Cowboys one where 
Jordan Love basically did the 

1366
01:10:28,840 --> 01:10:32,800
Baker and they were scoring and 
they kept scoring and then Dak 

1367
01:10:32,800 --> 01:10:35,400
played the Ben Roethlisberger. 
He threw 50 something times. 

1368
01:10:35,640 --> 01:10:37,560
Yeah. 
And Jake Ferguson got there and 

1369
01:10:37,560 --> 01:10:40,080
that was massive. 
So hopefully it's not Jordan 

1370
01:10:40,080 --> 01:10:42,400
Love either because we don't, we
don't need to deal with that. 

1371
01:10:42,440 --> 01:10:46,320
True, this was the early game. 
This was the Saturday 60. 

1372
01:10:46,320 --> 01:10:49,040
Passes for Dak. 
The Sunday day game which? 

1373
01:10:50,080 --> 01:10:52,360
10. 
O'clock my time. 

1374
01:10:55,000 --> 01:10:57,000
I think we had a ton of Aaron 
Jones. 

1375
01:10:57,120 --> 01:10:59,520
We just. 
We had a bunch of Aaron Jones in

1376
01:10:59,520 --> 01:11:01,000
this, yeah. 
We did. 

1377
01:11:01,080 --> 01:11:03,160
We did leverage Jones well on 
this. 

1378
01:11:03,160 --> 01:11:05,960
But we had we had a lot of Jones
Lamb and we were like kicking 

1379
01:11:05,960 --> 01:11:07,880
ourselves for not more Jones. 
I don't think we had any Jones. 

1380
01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:11,520
Ferguson maybe, Or like one no. 
No, that was the year. 

1381
01:11:11,520 --> 01:11:15,360
We were like only single tight 
end lineups for Ferguson, and 

1382
01:11:15,360 --> 01:11:20,080
then it was, I think Ferguson. 
Kelsey Yep, that was my take 

1383
01:11:20,080 --> 01:11:22,680
that was wrong. 
Did you like go into the sheet 

1384
01:11:22,680 --> 01:11:24,200
history? 
We were like pretty united on 

1385
01:11:24,200 --> 01:11:26,320
that. 
Try to find like the IP address 

1386
01:11:26,320 --> 01:11:28,720
of the person who who probably 
swapped that Ferguson to CD 

1387
01:11:28,720 --> 01:11:32,720
lamp. 
Yeah, wow. 

1388
01:11:33,480 --> 01:11:34,960
Somewhat. 
Leonie, someone in the chat 

1389
01:11:34,960 --> 01:11:37,280
earlier asked you where you're, 
where you're at on Dubs. 

1390
01:11:37,280 --> 01:11:39,080
You are officially the Dubs 
Whisperer. 

1391
01:11:39,080 --> 01:11:42,240
Is this the Dubs game? 
I'm kind of worried about him 

1392
01:11:42,240 --> 01:11:44,920
because I feel like he, I mean, 
he's a routes play and his 

1393
01:11:44,920 --> 01:11:47,560
routes are not as guaranteed as 
they've been in the past. 

1394
01:11:47,560 --> 01:11:51,080
So I'm, I don't have any, 
especially in this contest. 

1395
01:11:51,080 --> 01:11:52,160
I don't. 
I don't really have. 

1396
01:11:52,560 --> 01:11:54,360
Aren't they only? 
Don't they only even have 3 

1397
01:11:54,360 --> 01:11:56,200
receivers and one tight end now?
Why? 

1398
01:11:56,560 --> 01:11:57,080
Why? 
Would he? 

1399
01:11:57,080 --> 01:12:00,600
Jaden Reed Finally. 
He had like a 90% route share a 

1400
01:12:00,600 --> 01:12:04,080
couple weeks ago. 
Yeah, but aren't they like base 

1401
01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:06,800
going to be a lot more three 
wide now because they don't even

1402
01:12:07,320 --> 01:12:12,880
have tight ends? 
Yeah, I, I, I don't know. 

1403
01:12:12,880 --> 01:12:14,720
I'm not sure. 
They have all sorts of random 

1404
01:12:14,720 --> 01:12:17,520
ass tight ends. 
Yeah, what about like that 

1405
01:12:17,520 --> 01:12:19,000
Fitzpatrick dude? 
Is he not playing? 

1406
01:12:19,080 --> 01:12:21,480
Fitzsimmons, can you? 
Can you think of any of the 

1407
01:12:21,480 --> 01:12:24,840
tight ends? 
John Fitzsimmons Fitzpatrick. 

1408
01:12:24,840 --> 01:12:27,400
Yeah, isn't he done, Mark? 
Chamura, John. 

1409
01:12:27,400 --> 01:12:30,040
To Mus Musgrave, Mark. 
Chamura, Bubba. 

1410
01:12:30,040 --> 01:12:30,560
Franks. 
Let. 

1411
01:12:31,720 --> 01:12:33,240
Me. 
Let me see what they're done. 

1412
01:12:33,240 --> 01:12:34,240
Sure. 
Michael Finley. 

1413
01:12:35,080 --> 01:12:39,640
Duh. 
I'm trying to think of a good 

1414
01:12:39,640 --> 01:12:41,400
fake tight end name to see if I 
can get Ding. 

1415
01:12:44,160 --> 01:12:47,480
It has to be a non Packer 
because I've like locked it on. 

1416
01:12:47,520 --> 01:12:48,680
Oh, you're locked in. 
OK, OK, you won't. 

1417
01:12:49,120 --> 01:12:51,240
Be able to get. 
That's what I was trying to set 

1418
01:12:51,560 --> 01:12:53,560
Leonie up to. 
Make up a Packer name for you. 

1419
01:12:54,120 --> 01:12:56,880
Oh, if it's Patrick's on IR. 
Yeah, yeah, you. 

1420
01:12:57,080 --> 01:12:58,480
Got Patrick scouted. 
Oh, Drake. 

1421
01:12:58,480 --> 01:13:02,680
Drake, Dabney, Drake, Dabney. 
Drake Dabney, come on. 

1422
01:13:02,840 --> 01:13:06,080
But the Packers, like they have 
in playoff games, played random 

1423
01:13:06,080 --> 01:13:08,000
ass dudes like. 
Bo Melton. 

1424
01:13:09,280 --> 01:13:14,520
Bo Melton, Malik Heath have big 
games and and you know, Golden's

1425
01:13:14,800 --> 01:13:16,200
you know, not going to play a 
lot but. 

1426
01:13:16,200 --> 01:13:20,000
There was another tight end like
that name, like Dominique 

1427
01:13:20,000 --> 01:13:22,320
something a couple years ago 
that was his number was in the 

1428
01:13:22,320 --> 01:13:26,680
40s. 
I don't know, how about this to 

1429
01:13:26,680 --> 01:13:29,040
close? 
How about we, in honor of the 

1430
01:13:29,120 --> 01:13:33,160
established The Million fellas, 
we each give a FFPC playoff 

1431
01:13:33,160 --> 01:13:36,560
contest flag plant to to close 
out here. 

1432
01:13:38,160 --> 01:13:42,360
Let's do it. 
Yeah, Pat, you want to, you want

1433
01:13:42,360 --> 01:13:44,280
to start? 
I'll give these guys a second to

1434
01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:50,480
to come up with something here. 
Sure, I will say Trayvon 

1435
01:13:50,480 --> 01:13:53,120
Henderson, who I just don't 
think it's going to really get 

1436
01:13:53,120 --> 01:13:57,840
played at A at a high rate. 
The the the boomer love is for 

1437
01:13:57,840 --> 01:14:00,880
romandre right now. 
The projections don't really 

1438
01:14:00,880 --> 01:14:02,560
support him. 
Is like that great of a play. 

1439
01:14:04,400 --> 01:14:08,240
The usage has been kind of, you 
know, uninspiring recently. 

1440
01:14:08,240 --> 01:14:12,400
But to me, I'm like you do have 
some there is some worry with 

1441
01:14:12,400 --> 01:14:16,240
May, like May obviously I like 
as a play, but there is some 

1442
01:14:16,240 --> 01:14:18,520
concern about do they do they 
play enough games? 

1443
01:14:19,240 --> 01:14:23,000
Henderson can get there in a 
game or two and absolutely smash

1444
01:14:23,240 --> 01:14:26,960
because of his big play ability.
And I have him right now at 14% 

1445
01:14:26,960 --> 01:14:29,960
tied with Stevenson, just behind
digs, tied with Henry. 

1446
01:14:30,880 --> 01:14:33,720
I just as we're talking about 
early in the week, I was like, 

1447
01:14:33,720 --> 01:14:35,800
man, if he's this great of a 
play, like he's really going to 

1448
01:14:35,800 --> 01:14:38,640
be this low. 
I do think he comes in around 

1449
01:14:38,640 --> 01:14:41,560
this number. 
I don't think there's a ton of 

1450
01:14:41,920 --> 01:14:46,680
excitement to to get him in 
these line UPS like gigs is 

1451
01:14:46,680 --> 01:14:49,040
probably a slightly more 
comfortable play and you know, 

1452
01:14:49,040 --> 01:14:51,040
Romandre and Henry will get some
share too. 

1453
01:14:51,040 --> 01:14:52,840
So and obviously may will be the
big chalk piece. 

1454
01:14:52,840 --> 01:14:57,360
So fairly low owned Trayvon 
Henderson would be my flag plan.

1455
01:14:58,600 --> 01:15:03,360
Very nice, Gretch, you got 1. 
I don't. 

1456
01:15:03,560 --> 01:15:06,360
Let me, let me. 
That's a buck for a minute, if 

1457
01:15:06,360 --> 01:15:08,480
you don't mind. 
All right, I'll do mine. 

1458
01:15:08,760 --> 01:15:14,080
I will say, but Texan Steelers 
is going to be overly faded and 

1459
01:15:14,080 --> 01:15:16,560
soft faded. 
I'll say play 2 skill position 

1460
01:15:16,560 --> 01:15:19,720
players from that game. 
Dalton Schultz, Kenny Gainwell, 

1461
01:15:19,880 --> 01:15:23,840
There's your mini. 
Coral, I love that. 

1462
01:15:25,920 --> 01:15:28,600
All right, Dinker Leone who? 
Who's got? 

1463
01:15:28,600 --> 01:15:30,000
One, I'm ready to go. 
I'm ready to go. 

1464
01:15:30,000 --> 01:15:35,720
All right, all right. 
So if I know anything about my 

1465
01:15:35,720 --> 01:15:41,440
flag plane history, it's that 
it's either blocking us into the

1466
01:15:41,440 --> 01:15:46,680
winner or it's going down in 
flames and I'm going to win 

1467
01:15:46,680 --> 01:15:48,920
either way 'cause I'm going Josh
Jacobs, baby. 

1468
01:15:53,040 --> 01:15:55,880
There was a second I thought we 
were going to get a Robodudes a.

1469
01:16:00,440 --> 01:16:03,400
I literally ruined Rome's career
with the last flag plant. 

1470
01:16:03,400 --> 01:16:05,680
I can't possibly. 
I can't possibly. 

1471
01:16:05,680 --> 01:16:09,240
Do it to him Well, as someone 
who also has a collectively a 

1472
01:16:09,240 --> 01:16:13,960
Roma Dunze clip in the hopper 
here we can handshake emoji 

1473
01:16:13,960 --> 01:16:16,560
Ruini Grob's. 
Career took a while, but we got 

1474
01:16:16,560 --> 01:16:22,520
there. 
I was gonna go Josh Jacobs. 

1475
01:16:23,120 --> 01:16:25,240
I'll do. 
I knew I needed to leap in front

1476
01:16:25,240 --> 01:16:27,720
of Leone. 
I knew I saw the Leone Josh 

1477
01:16:27,720 --> 01:16:30,880
Jacobs grin. 
I know it's. 

1478
01:16:30,880 --> 01:16:36,800
Such an on brand pick for me. 
I'm seeing in Pat's latest 

1479
01:16:36,800 --> 01:16:40,040
ownership a guy that we've been 
talking about his chalk all week

1480
01:16:40,040 --> 01:16:45,960
is not even going to be 30 
percent, 29% chalk tight end. 

1481
01:16:46,880 --> 01:16:50,080
I think Colston Loveland 80 plus
percent routes just the last 

1482
01:16:50,080 --> 01:16:54,160
three weeks, 10 plus targets the
last two as part of that since 

1483
01:16:54,160 --> 01:16:57,400
his role expanded. 
There's it's not a good tight 

1484
01:16:57,400 --> 01:16:59,160
end field. 
I think you got to play a lot of

1485
01:16:59,160 --> 01:17:02,400
Coulson. 
Lolin there you go. 29% 

1486
01:17:02,440 --> 01:17:04,520
projected ownership. 
Feels like. 

1487
01:17:06,000 --> 01:17:09,000
I might as well just go down in 
flames with Justin Herbert. 

1488
01:17:09,080 --> 01:17:13,760
You know where we're on there. 
One of us will probably be 

1489
01:17:13,760 --> 01:17:15,000
right. 
Leonie Herbert. 

1490
01:17:15,000 --> 01:17:17,760
Unless it's May, which. 
Probably could be both, could be

1491
01:17:17,760 --> 01:17:19,800
both. 
Could be both, could be both, 

1492
01:17:19,800 --> 01:17:21,440
yeah. 
Get the Herbert Shootout win 

1493
01:17:21,440 --> 01:17:25,600
with Endo breaking on long runs.
Yeah, this is this is your job, 

1494
01:17:25,600 --> 01:17:29,560
Evan, to go build these teams 
with the flag plants and then 

1495
01:17:29,560 --> 01:17:32,160
you can be pissed at us when it 
doesn't hit. 

1496
01:17:32,160 --> 01:17:33,280
That's kind of how flag. 
Plants work. 

1497
01:17:33,840 --> 01:17:35,000
That's sort of how they can 
work, yeah. 

1498
01:17:36,720 --> 01:17:39,160
You probably are going to get 
less of a response though, 

1499
01:17:39,160 --> 01:17:42,640
sending those to the ship 
chasing, you know, e-mail 

1500
01:17:42,640 --> 01:17:46,040
address, compared to complaining
to the ETR overlords about 

1501
01:17:46,040 --> 01:17:48,120
Dink's romebit over and over 
again. 

1502
01:17:49,800 --> 01:17:53,080
Send it all to at Sam Sherman 
FB. 

1503
01:17:53,080 --> 01:17:55,000
Yes. 
Yes, exactly. 

1504
01:17:56,320 --> 01:17:59,600
Leonie, my first flag plant was 
going to be Buffalo Full fade, 

1505
01:17:59,600 --> 01:18:01,560
but I felt like that was a 
little too trolley, I mean. 

1506
01:18:02,200 --> 01:18:04,240
You. 
Can go for it. 

1507
01:18:06,000 --> 01:18:07,320
It wasn't even like that flag 
plant. 

1508
01:18:07,440 --> 01:18:09,040
It's a pretty good. 
Flag Plant. 

1509
01:18:09,240 --> 01:18:10,680
Can that just be like our group 
flag plant? 

1510
01:18:12,960 --> 01:18:19,400
What if this year the Aaron 
Jones, Jake Ferguson for 2026 is

1511
01:18:19,760 --> 01:18:22,920
Justin Herbert in Bill's full 
fade? 

1512
01:18:22,960 --> 01:18:25,880
The that's the mini correlation 
you you need. 

1513
01:18:29,280 --> 01:18:33,680
I think, I think Buffalo full 
fade is, is kind of like the 

1514
01:18:33,680 --> 01:18:35,000
Herbert play to an extent, 
right? 

1515
01:18:35,000 --> 01:18:37,520
Like, it's not one you're 
probably playing a ton of, but 

1516
01:18:37,520 --> 01:18:38,800
the field's going to underplay 
it. 

1517
01:18:39,200 --> 01:18:40,320
Yeah. 
Yeah. 

1518
01:18:41,920 --> 01:18:45,440
All right, I wish, you know, if 
we were all young bucks, we 

1519
01:18:45,440 --> 01:18:47,920
could go for another two hours 
and then stay up building 

1520
01:18:47,920 --> 01:18:50,480
lineups for three hours. 
But we have a lot of lineups to 

1521
01:18:50,480 --> 01:18:54,280
build, so we are going to bring 
this to a close. 

1522
01:18:54,280 --> 01:18:58,200
Super fun week as always thanks 
to the ADP chasing crew, stat 

1523
01:18:58,200 --> 01:19:03,960
chasing crew, obviously Gretsch 
joining us this week and and 

1524
01:19:03,960 --> 01:19:09,080
Davis and Jacob and everyone who
joined in the chat and digested 

1525
01:19:09,080 --> 01:19:12,200
the ownership rankings from Pat 
and all of that good stuff. 

1526
01:19:12,200 --> 01:19:16,440
So fellas, it's been another 
great year in the books. 

1527
01:19:16,440 --> 01:19:19,760
Good luck to everyone getting 
their final line UPS in any 

1528
01:19:19,760 --> 01:19:22,440
other final parting shots for 
any of you guys. 

1529
01:19:24,760 --> 01:19:27,120
No, I'm excited man, Excited to 
build some line UPS. 

1530
01:19:28,000 --> 01:19:29,200
All right guys, this. 
Is the year. 

1531
01:19:29,440 --> 01:19:32,200
This is the year. 
That's the final parting shot. 

1532
01:19:32,200 --> 01:19:34,400
We're going to do it. 
Flag Plant. 

1533
01:19:35,000 --> 01:19:36,960
Shipping it. 
All right, guys, have a good 

1534
01:19:36,960 --> 01:19:39,280
evening. 
Good luck this weekend and we'll

1535
01:19:39,280 --> 01:19:40,240
see you soon. 
Peace.