Hello everybody and welcome to week 7 of Statute saying you had
an exciting week in week 6. A couple rookie wide receivers
that flash the first time seeing the field and see me if Will
usage and also got to see some new look back fields in Seattle
and in Los Angeles with the Rams that will be breaking down this
week. Connor, how did your week 6 go
for fantasy and in my in my daily kind of basketball stuff.
I'm more or less broke even II had some teams that were solid
but never really sniffed at top of the leaderboard.
And I suppose that's just kind of the way it goes.
Goes. And you're just you're just
praying for that one, sweat and maybe get you got a handful of
real sweats per season and it was not this week.
Yeah, I was traveling last week so didn't get a chance to play
any daily fantasy or any basketball on Underdog, anything
like that. But yeah, didn't have the best
week in my manage leagues. I think a couple Couple
frustrating injury situations that that were tough.
I think the TA against thing was was one that was tricky to know
how to handle. But yeah, not the best week but
what can you do? Gotta gotta keep moving forward
and hopefully with the by weeks coming up with me how I build
some my teams with deep wide receiver benches.
Hopefully can constrain together someone's here.
But right you'll find out Yeah, that would that would help
right? Yeah, that's how it works in
theory, if we'll test it and practice coming up, but yeah.
Anyways, let's dive into the data here for weeks, 1 through
6. And for folks listening live,
feel free to ask any questions in the YouTube.
Chat will try to cover it here live and obviously just a plug
for those listening either on on video.
After the stream or listening on podcast apps, you are able to
join the ship casing. Discord can find more info in
the description for the YouTube video here and you're able to
access these freedoms live and ask us questions in the chat or
even after the show the Discord. So just want to give a quick
quick plug for that before we dive into the data here.
It's like always, we'll start with quarterback and here we're
looking at quarterback passing efficiency efficiency, excuse
me, and rushing production for all the League's starting
quarterbacks or projected starters going forward.
So here on the y-axis for those following Along on video we have
touchdown rate. So percentage of throws that end
up in a touchdown. And on the x-axis we have
adjusted yards per attempt which is a simple.
Yards per attempt metric but adjusted for interceptions and
touchdowns. So for example, you'll see,
Kenny picking is Kenny. Pickett is way off to the left
here. He has a bad adjusted yards per
attempt because in a relatively small sample, he's thrown four
interceptions and just one touchdown so that will really
way down guys like that who have way more interceptions than
touchdowns. So anyways, that's that's the
chart here. And again, I guess, final last
thing to add the size of the bubble here is rushing yards.
You really see guys like Lamar Jalen hurts pop in a big way
here. Draco thing that stands out to
me for some start. Maybe we can start the
conversation. Here is daily zappy, way off on
the top right corner next to guys, like Josh Allen.
Patrick Mahomes to obviously doesn't have the, the rushing,
the rushing, Prestige of some of those guys.
But he has been really good over the past couple weeks, in my
sort of, take aways, which I posted on Twitter.
I thought that he is a viable. Well, streaming candidate.
If he continues to start over Maxie Jones.
Do you have any thoughts on Bailey's appy?
Going forward? If he, if he continues to start
games here. Yeah, so I guess one nm1 thought
I did have was as happy Slappy. And one thought I did have, is
that it is a relatively small sample size.
So he's got 70 pass attempts. And he's done really, really
well with those 70 pass attempts.
And I think that, II think that being very efficient, like, on
this scale is, is really strong. It's a really strong start.
And that if you are in trouble at quarterback, there's probably
worse directions that you can go and one.
Well, I guess one. Discomfort.
I would have if if there was a kind of a legitimate option like
I'm not sired him over, let's say Jared Goff or Geno Smith.
And the reason for that would be obviously that the rushing is
low. And then it you can have a guy
who comes out the gate playing well and in the first two games
and then because because the small, it's a small sample size.
It's not always reliable as you want, and then the next game, it
creators. But that I'm trying, I'm trying
to find the new one, like saying, it's really encouraging,
really exciting. And yeah, but you have to keep
in mind that the, this could regress in a big way.
Yeah, I I agree with that largely.
I think, you know, I'm still starting Gino still charting
Jared Goff over him. I think, once you start to get
cut down to guys, like in your deeper leagues, maybe if you're
considering between him and Penny and Kenny Pickett coming
off that concussion, that's maybe a decision point.
If you're deciding between him and Jimmy G, Ryan Tannehill.
I think that's a decision point. I think that's kind of the tier
of guys. Yeah, Frozen blue.
But yeah, and then I guess the other thing to mention on zappy
that I thought was interesting is the Patriots were up for
almost all of that game. And something we saw with the
Patriots last year in games that were closed or where they're
winning, which didn't happen. Very frequently but certainly
decent, sample size. They were willing just to run
the shit out of the ball. They didn't really let Matt
Jones throat around much last week, I believe.
Patriots got what is it up to? I think 40-plus pass attempts.
That have to check the box score again for zappy.
I'm pulling it up now. Yeah.
Okay, so it was 34 pass attempts so again, yeah, not massive
volume, but in a game where they were leading the entire way,
that's still pretty solid. So I think that's something to
consider that and maybe it was due to the Damien Harris injury
as well if they're willing to lean on the pass a bit more, but
we saw them throw it in even in a game where they're leading the
whole time. So that's something to consider
where in - game scripts there could be A lot of volume.
But yeah, I think, I think that's the right sort of nuance
that you touched on around Zach. Be like viable streamer, but not
someone. You're starting over the normal
starters or right golf or Gino. You probably picked up off the
wire already. And one thing that I found
interesting about this chart is that a jobber?
Oh, he's moved into the into the good section.
He's moved from the bad section of the chart in the kind of Lee
was in the book kind of bottom of X.
Now he's moved out of the day. This Mill Zone which is good to
see ya. And and I think it's interesting
in how with the sample size that we're working with, how one game
can truly change that in it, and it kind of dramatic way.
And at completely change the picture that you're looking at.
And I think that is that that's kind of like important to keep
in mind with some of these kind of on the Performing players
that have played really well in the past.
Like what I mean? I guess the the context for
color Murray is almost too bad to really, I guess at this point
expect A huge jump in efficiency and but he is someone who has
had really, really good games. And they do get nuke back and we
just have an example of how one game can completely change the
perception on on a player. Yeah, yeah I think that's a good
point and I almost like well I was watching that Denver
Chargers game last night. And in the first half the Denver
passing offense actually look quite good.
Russell Wilson's connecting on some some Dean plays.
It didn't look like incredible by any means but I'm starting to
maybe come around there and look at real offense.
Yeah, looks like a real offense. Second half completely collapse,
but I think Ross is another guy that jumps out there where the
media narrative is so against Ross.
He's been in all these Prime Time games where he's looked
awful and he has been bad. I will say I do Part of how bad
they've been is just really, really, really bad Red Zone
efficiency. And some of that is probably
structural like Russ looks bad down, there is throwing up these
gross floaters. He's immediately turning around
and running every time he sees pressure like it doesn't look
good, but I think that's a situation where the Red Zone
efficiency is going to positively regress.
And I'm not here to tell you, Russ Wilson is going to be a top
five quarterback, the rest of the way.
But people might be really down on him in your league, so he's
another guy. Guy where if you can get them
for really cheap, maybe in superflex where you can kind of
get more value out of it, that's that's a place.
I might be looking because again, is adjusted net yards per
attempt, progestin yards, per attempt is quite High, even with
a really love TD rate. So that tells you that, I think
he's maybe not playing as bad. As the media narrative.
Sort of wood was just one piece of context and I was just
thinking about this because I think I made this point on
Russell Wilson. That is it just the yard?
Kent is still quite good. Is that?
He holds the ball a long time. So he takes a lot of sacks.
Yeah. Sacha not factored in here,
right? Yeah.
All right. Yeah.
And and so, I think we have to kind of like, visually adjust
that he's probably closer to the average in adjusted yards per
attempt and when you account for the the socks and stuff like
that. Yeah, that's a good point.
Like, the other thing would be interesting to see if we had
This data and I haven't really seen people break it down like
this but sort of a yards per drop back statistic that
factored in both sacks as well as like scrambles and rushing
yards. I think that would be
interesting to see how that affects guys like Ross.
You take a lot of sacks or guys like Lamar who may be adding a
lot through through the ground on their drawbacks.
But it's just a hypothetical thing, may be worth checking out
in future weeks. Yeah, it's called me.
Maybe we should be doing this for It back.
Yeah. I think would be cool.
Yeah. Like that that was that would
add that would be a good adjustment for sure.
Yep. Anything else on the
quarterbacks that jumps out to you Connor, I think you know,
we've been doing this for six weeks now, so I think we've
touched on a lot of Trends are the same for the most part.
Yeah. I think we're both seeing that
and I think that a and it's, it's probably at work pointing
out. So we have to talk about hello.
I am in here just because he is expected to start next week, but
one thought I did have about that.
Is that the sample size of games is smaller for, for him than the
rest of the players which probably doesn't Does help and
because he had such outlier games, it probably is a factor
of, in terms of pushing them, to be the leader, and adjusted
yards per attempt on. I have to imagine that if he, if
he had the bigger sample size, he be closer, and be closer to
the average, but maybe a smidge. And, but having said that, still
happy to fire him up in And probably if you have them unless
unless it's over like a Josh Allen or like Patrick Mahomes a
true Elite option. Still very strong player I
think. Yeah, I agree with that.
I'm starting him over like the Mariota, like Rogers, Derek,
Carr, type sort of guys in that, that range.
I think I'm taking the risk with two of these going back this
week. I'm a Believer in the Miami
scheme and the talent at wide receiver.
Just watching those games tie, Rico Tyree kill is just getting
open with such ease. Jalen waddle can stretch the
field and also do do the yak stuff that tire you can do.
It's just it seems to be a really good good passing scheme
with talented weapons so I'm yeah, I agree.
It's a small sample. Like I don't expect you to stay
on the top right corner of this chart with that level of
efficiency. But I do still see him as a high
high upside quarterback going forward that I'm for sure,
taking taking a shot on and I think the evidence has been he
is Is an it is out of to the offense.
Like it's not like they can just run out any other quarterback
and ball out like they've genuine you miss them over the
past couple of games and but there's a very noticeable
difference in the offense when he plays and which I think is
kind of like a strong sign and Doctor should be good,
efficiency, good, the strong efficiency for him going
forward. Yep.
What one point, and I just changed in my spreadsheet.
I just change Russell Wilson and from using the attempted to
Dropbox and by using Dropbox, if pushes them from a 7.1, adjusted
yards per attempt to 6.1 mmm and which is still, I guess if you
look at the where the chart is, six point one that pushes them
closed. Oh, sir to the, I guess just
ahead of Matthew Stafford range. Yeah, and I guess to be fair to
him, like, you would have to do that adjustment for everybody,
right? So like everybody probably
shifting a little bit, but I'm guessing that with the amount of
sacks, he's taking, he is Shifting like the most the left
on this chart, if you want to visualize it like that relative
to other players. But yeah, that's a good point.
And maybe next week, we will have that view for quarterback.
So yeah. I think we should.
Yeah. Okay.
Great moving on to running back here.
So the expected points chart is back after a brief absence last
week. I thought it was thought it was
interesting to bring back this week for a couple reasons but to
those following along and video and and on audio I suppose we're
looking at running back workloads in terms of expected
fantasy points and also looking at their efficiency.
So fantasy points over under expected.
Here in this chart on the y-axis.
We have receiving workload so you see guys like Austin Eckler,
really spiking their with massive receiving roles and on
the x axis, we see rushing expected fantasy points.
So you see guys like chub, Derrick, Henry, Taylor Etc,
showing up with huge workloads there as we would expect.
So Connor, my first takeaway in looking at this chart, I think
hecklers guy, that's kind of flown under the radar a little
bit and Fantasy the season. I think the first couple weeks,
people are really scared about his role.
He didn't really have a high snap rate, a lot of Michelle and
Josh Kelley mixing in, for rushing attempts.
But this receiving workload, I don't know if it's a product of
Keenan, Allen being out but it's really, really spiked recently.
I believe you had 10 catches last night and it truly gross
like compiling PPR effort, but still anytime a running back and
get 10 catches, that's just flashing amazing upside for, for
PPR Our maths. But yeah, how it's like, what
you call it's like, last year a little bit, isn't it?
Where they came in with this plan of?
Okay, we can't just give every touch the Austin Eckler and he's
one of our best players, we need to like preserve them.
And then they realized that the guys that they brought in to
take the load at are just not up to Snuff and and they're having
to go back to Austin after a lot more and then I believe Him who
was the backup running back for the Chargers.
Josh Kelley went down with the knee and the Aviary.
Yeah. So that that, that probably
helped them there. Yeah, but he's also been quite
strong and in the last couple of games and I think the other part
of it is, is that he's also good at football, very good.
And so that's something where a guy can get, maybe more, maybe
he is in a committee, or He a he is snap.
Share isn't as quite as strong as you'd like well he just plays
so well that he's getting you touchdowns.
He's getting you a production and he's definitely in that
category. Yeah and it's an interesting
sort of contrast will see when we go to the snaps chart and a
little bit, he does not really flash there.
But in terms of just raw expected fantasy points per
game, he is now third at running backs behind only Joe Mixon and
Leonard fournette. He's That 18.7 total expected
fantasy points per game. So that's a anytime you're
getting approaching 20 over this large of a sample size.
That's a really, really strong expected fantasy points,
workload, and like you said, he's a talented running back.
I expect him to be able to add Tennessee points on top of that,
through his efficiency and that Chargers offense being, you
know, hopefully pretty high scoring.
So, yeah, if you have, if you have Eckler, I think you're
pretty excited. Outside of I'm not sure if you
wouldn't be the third running back and maybe you know that's
what resurrections over so we can check though.
I was actually just going to make that point.
So the best ball Resurrection is over.
We still do have a TPS from the daily best ball and obviously,
dad at is only the main slate. When you're looking at the with
the I guess the biggest sample. Only includes two main say I am
but Austin Eckler he is a turd running back over all.
And by ATP and he goes he's so that he goes at an average of
pick 6.7. That's five.
Picks ahead of Nick Chubb and then Seth are six-and-a-half
picks ahead of that Christian McCaffrey That, that is
interesting. Yeah, look at these ATP is like,
Derrick Henry is the first running back, right?
I guess have people are is a slightly different game.
I can I can see, why is in the same range as those guys, but I
think I'm pretty easily taking Eckler over Henry.
I probably am taking McCaffrey over at Claire though, right?
So I think I guess that's probably around about right?
What is it? EP is?
So yeah, I think that a that Underdog is obviously a fairly
sharp sight and and they've definitely noticed that that
increase in production for a clear and Yeah.
The one, the one running back that is yet should be on this
chart that is still discounted, is Bruce Hall.
So Breeze. Ha goes at a pic of an average
of 30, which is the last round in these a fastball dailies, and
they're that kind of baffles me, that that's obviously a huge
priority Target. And when you getting over 15
expected points per game, He's a rookie who's playing very well,
and he does it in the Run game on the, on the receiving game
and kind of a smashed picked her, right?
Yeah, yeah. I take 30, I don't know why he's
going so late and I think there's, there's even upside.
We saw it and like the first couple games with Joe Flacco,
there's these massive receiving roles for some of these backs
because the game script kind of got out of hand for the Jets.
Now, the Jets have been good enough that they've been up in
these games. Like against the Packers, I'm
blanking on who it was the week before that, but they've had
some weird game script that I don't really expect going
forward. So once the Jets start to have
to throw more, I think that actually helps res Halls ceiling
because, you know, we've seen those running backs rack up a
ton, a ton of catches in the first couple weeks.
So, right, like to call me a big part of their offense, a large
part of their offense is going to have to run for Bruce Hall.
Yep. Yeah that offense it seems to be
haul a little bit of Carter Darren Wilson.
Corey Davis in the passing game and that's about that's about
it. Not a lot going to a larger more
other periphery pieces there. So a lot of a lot of fantasy
points to the running backs on the Jets.
Got another thing I wanted to call out, just sort of a quick
note D on Jackson's role was really strong last week.
Now, I think this is actually averaging two weeks of Deon
Jackson starts, right? And we're not not starts are two
weeks of G on Jackson getting snaps.
And one of them was the week when Hines was still around and
he didn't have a huge workload, but last week he had a massive
workload. I believe all the time I had
close to 20 expected fantasy points.
I had like 80 plus receiving yards so if Taylor and Heinz
remain out, he is a must start. Three and a half expected points
for three and a half. Yeah, he scored a really strong
game for him. Yes, he looks really good out
there just like a an eye test thing.
Definitely looks better. I mean, I don't know what
happened to fill up Lindsay, but man, that guy like, it's hard to
describe, you got to watch them play, but He does this thing
where he does this like stutter-step forever and it just
goes nowhere. I like he, he looks like he has
no juice out there but that's just a random aside, Deon
Jackson definitely add him. I think Taylor will probably be
back in Hines is probably not out for too much longer, but
he's definitely worth like a cheap add on The Wire where you
can get em and just see if you get another spot start out of
him this week versus the Titans, Any other running back
situations, you want to talk through in the AFC or shall we
move on? I think I yeah we have another
chart. Yeah.
And that I think is better for some of these situations.
Yep, for sure. So, touching quickly, on Nana,
see here. Same same charge us with the NFC
running backs. So we can compare sort of
across, you know, back fields. Look at look at committees
within a a certain team. A thing that stands out to me.
Here Connor is, there's a pretty clear and we see it a little bit
in the AFC to there's a pretty clear separation of The Haves
and Have Nots. And then I see, we essentially
have for Workhorse backs in the NFC with Berkeley for net,
Chimera and McCaffrey. And I think Berkeley for net and
McCaffrey those. Those aren't surprising to
anybody who's been following the show or He's been following
fantasy this year. Those are those guys have been
getting massive workloads all year.
I think the Camaro one is interesting because he is really
shot up this chart over the last couple weeks with Andy Dalton
playing and the ton of the wide receivers being out.
Michael Thomas has been out just a lava can cost Jarvis Landry
has been out so a ton of the pass game.
Usage has been funneling to Chimera and as a result we're
seeing this massive receiving workload for Him.
So yeah, quite question for you. What are you like on this chart?
If you're just you know looking at it sort of blindly without
the context you would see oh Karen McCaffrey should be
valued, you know about the same similar workloads, you know,
what do you what do you think about that with Chimera going
forward? You expect this usage to
continue with the water. She was returning, or do you
think this is sort of a small blip on the radar for him?
And so I think I still would have a McCaffrey a good bit of
head of chimera. And I guess, one of the big
concerns for Chimera is that it's the taysom hill, one sir,
where they just decide this is going to be the taysom hill
game, and he gets a lot of the touchdowns.
He gets a lot of the At the artists to.
And and I guess another issue I have with Chimera is that And I
maybe this is to film grinder. E, it does.
Kind of look like he's like while he's still very good.
He's not quite the same player that he was and where's
Christian McCaffrey looks like vintage Christian McCaffrey and
II do think that's like an important and distinction or
difference. Yeah, and it shows up here in
the data. Khmer McCaffrey has way more
fantasy points over expected. Then Camaro, I think the mayor
is actually under performing his workload.
Yeah. On the season, he's averaging
about -3 fantasy points over expected per game.
Whereas the Caffrey is at plus two point two fantasy points
over expected per game. So sort of a five-point
difference there. In terms of efficiency, just
looking at the fantasy points over expected metric between
McCaffrey and Chimera. Yeah, I think I'm with you, that
the TD Equity is a concern for New Orleans.
Number one, I think that offense is that great number to the
taysom hill situation. And I really do think to the
point. I was sort of hanging out
earlier. I do think that camara's roll.
If number one Jamis comes back, he takes a hit number two, Once
a Lobby, Michael Thomas come back, he's gonna take a hit.
So he's racked up a lot of receiving yards.
The past two weeks, I think an average about 60 per game on six
catches per game. I don't expect that to hold once
all these receivers coming, come back there.
Truly trotting out, like Marquez Callaway, trequan Smith, some
real sort of dumpster dive guys at Wide Receiver right now,
which is funneling a lot of stuff to chimera.
Right. And and then I guess somebody
order issue. And so And like you said, the
per game average on that is a fantasy points.
Over expected has been bad, but some of the one of the, on the
detail, one of the most concerning things for me, is
that. So, last week, he had a
expected, receiving are 250, he came in at 25 and not sure on,
and then the average So his two games before week for I think
that was week one and two. Yeah, unexpected receiving it as
a 50 came in at 19 and like it the detail.
Obviously, this is a little bit small sample size but the detail
there of him coming in way under what his expected receiving are
and should be is It's definitely concerning given given that the
eye test is making it look like he's not quite as good as he
was. Yeah.
And it's we have a whole I mean I think we also have all of last
year where we saw, he was not the same old Chimera in terms of
efficiency. He was a guy who always got
there on pretty low volume and just insane efficiency and last
year's more of a volume play with with middling efficiency
and we're kind of seeing that again this year with with
Chimera. So I agree.
It's concerning. I you know I see McCafferty for
net Berkeley and Camara sort of in this tear on the chart.
I am way higher on the other three especially McCaffrey and
Berkeley then than Chimera going forward.
Any other situations. So just want to say historical
anomalies appreciate you and always catching the show's.
I was with the appreciation. And thanks dude.
Yeah, appreciate that. And yeah, you have any quick
questions. Let us know in the live chat.
Guys will be happy to answer them.
The yeah, I think Connor, I think we can probably move on to
the snaps chart now and yeah, anything, yep, let's do it.
So, still looking at running backs here, we're now looking at
their usage. So, the first two trucks were
looking at usage in terms of, Affected fantasy points.
Now we're looking at usage just in terms of percent of team
plays that they are getting a rush attempt or a route.
So those are kind of the the juicy snaps where they're either
directly in the ball, Rush attempt, obviously or the
running, a passing route and have the opportunity to earn a
Target. We want to see workout horse
running backs, have a high percentage of their team plays
with are either getting the ball or they're out there running a
route where they can earn earn a Target.
So it's sort of an interesting way Yep, go ahead and I guess
one known is. So this said this chart was
inspired after a conversation with with been Gretsch where he
had said. And when a running for most
running backs, unless it's the screenplay, when they get a
Target, it's usually not by Design.
Normally it's because something down the field, more desirable
didn't work out as intended and there a check down option.
There are some running backs like Christian.
McCaffrey and Sake One Barkley who are true weapons and the
team will look to have to find ways to get them involved and
make them a big part of their offense at receiving was.
But for most running backs, that's not the case.
And because of that, we want to concentrate more on just who's
out there, ready to receive a Target rather than them.
Receive expected receiving based on the targets, they did go.
Yeah, I think that's a good point.
Yeah like you'll see, you know, you'll see McCaffrey and Eckler
run these routes of the backfield where it almost looks
at their product, their the primary read, they have a
mismatch on a linebacker. They sort of do that, I don't
know what's called that Veer out where they cut to the right and
then cupcakes. Oh yeah, yeah and you see that
but then you know with guys like Joe Mixon you know Josh Jacobs
even Leonard fournette. It's more so their targets are
Brady looks down the field. Nobody's open.
Okay for Nets here. Like let's do.
Top it off. Ramps know, there's definitely a
difference between those two types of backs, but for the
ladder, we definitely just want to see them running a high
percentage of routes because that'll give them a chance.
You know, the guys like Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs for Nat who
maybe aren't special wide receivers.
We want to see them out there running a lot of routes because
they're probably not getting design looks in the passing
game. It'll more have to be sort of on
volume just being out there on on routes so and are not narrow.
Person is probably a good example of that.
Where, like nobody thinks of Darrell Henderson has this, like
Supremo and running back receiving Force, but we see that
he is running a very high percentage of his team's routes,
which is pretty even though it's not, it's not a very good
offense right now, it's kind of a bad offense.
It's still exciting to see your running back run that kind of
rupture Yep. I agree.
I think. Henderson's may be a good a good
person to start this conversation with, with all the
turmoil in the Los Angeles, Rams backfield.
So Henderson's, an interesting one on this chart because he
always shows up here as having the sort of top 12, you know,
rb1 usage, in terms of percentage of team plays Ruiz on
the field. But as you can see here, that
dark green bar for Russia. Temps is very low relative to
other Eyes on this chart, he's out there he's more so just
running routes he's not really getting any Rush attempts when
he's out there that's more so than the cam Akers or last week,
Malcolm Brown role, but he is running a ton of routes.
So I've been struggling with how to approach this Rams backfield
going forward. I think I want to be buying
Henderson, just because I think this big of a workload of just
being on the field and with, with Acres Is going away.
I think the market is still a little low on him.
But yeah, if you have thoughts I know there's also other guys we
can discuss like Malcolm Brown and Karen Williams, essentially
coming back. But do you have thoughts on the
Rams back to the going forward from sort of a season-long
fantasy perspective of how you would you try to play it and For
some reason and do Henderson is I was going at a discount and
yeah, so if if he or so he is probably going to be the primary
and beneficiary and just because he was already kind of like a 1A
1B Whitcomb anchors. And now, with him out of the
picture even though and Malcolm Is there.
And I'm definitely excited about Karen Williams and he,
especially with the discounts that he tends to go up.
And he's not, he's not in the watch Colour daily and that's
all and so don't really have a price check on them but and He
is definitely somebody that I'm excited about and then Karen
Karen Williams. Probably not.
It's not really a tournament player.
Like you're not really gonna play him in Daily Fantasy on
that sterile Henderson gets hurt as well and but definitely a to
me and exciting bench stash and for two reasons.
He was so productive in college he played really really well in
college and and then he was Also at he also I guess he played
himself into a week one role they were going to use him in
the offense and week one, before he got injured and and that's
really tough to do for a rookie. So the fact that he was able to
do that means they really like them and that he once he comes
back from injury so he does have the high on those high ankle
sprain and but once he does come back at definitely excited to
see how he does. Yeah, I'm excited to see that to
definitely guy. I think you should be stashing
historical anomalies ass. And, you know, I don't think
we're trade experts here, but I think it's an interesting
question with the CMC. Trade rumors, think, cam Akers
plus an early pick would be enough for the Panthers to pull
the trigger on CMC. I'm guessing they wouldn't
really care about acres in that trade their more.
So would care about the pick. I think Acres probably around
the around the league right now. Doesn't really have any trade
value. I'd be surprised at the Rams,
get Much for him but yeah we'll see if he's going to conditional
day tree pick. Yeah, I think that's about Acres
value. So I don't know the Rams even
have in the early picks and to offer.
I know the latest on the situation but I know they've
kind of had merged hadn't reached the future with all the
picture. It's I don't think that's the
most likely destination for CMC, but I would definitely have to
look into the cap, situations more.
I'm not firmly, you know, throw the first Grasp on what's even
possible there. But yeah, interesting question.
We'll see if CMC gets gets moved in the next week or so.
Connor. I think we talked about Bruce
out already, but I wanted to bring them up here, just because
he finally, for the first week has appeared on this chart which
is just showing running backs with more than 45 percent of
routes or Rush attempts. So, number one, that's exciting
that he's finally getting that larger usage in terms of just
being on the field more. And number two, you look at all
the guys in this chart that have over 100 expected fantasy
points. And it's all guys way to the
left of the chart McCaffrey Berkeley tail for net.
In Nixon, those are four out of the top five guys in terms of
percent rushed a route rate and then you have two other guys
scattered across the start with over 100 spective fantasy
points. You have Eckler in the middle
there. That's because when he is on the
field, they are designing. Looks Rim in the pass game, very
heavily. So that kind of makes sense and
then Hall is other outlier here with And three expected fantasy
points even with a relatively low snap rate.
So I just think that's really exciting that he's been able to
generate that many expect in fantasy points on that line of a
workload. And there's still a ton of
upside say, is number one, you know Carter could go down.
That would open up support for him or number two.
If you just continues to steal more of the work away, you know,
especially in the Red Zone, I think Carter's sort of folks
heard a lot from him there. So I think yeah, like we talked
about earlier, Earlier, the briefs haul stuff is really
exciting. And I think if we were doing,
you know, if we had best of all Resurrection ATP?
I think he should be like a late late first, early second round
pick at this point. I think last week, he was more
like early, third late second, I would be probably even more
aggressive on him in that format, but just looking at the
data from last week. Him.
So he had 20 Rush attempts. Michael Carter.
Had six. We had seven route Ron and
Michael Carter had nine. So If we're looking at that from
a share perspective, and I think they aren't the, the Jets only
attempted at the only had 19 and 21, Dropbox, 18 attempts.
So, you are looking at somebody who's getting a turtle or last
week from last week, getting about a third to a half of the
the routes and getting all the calories.
So doc, I mean, that's an F in modern-day NFL starter.
And yep, you put in the efficiency and you put in the
fact that he's scoring points in every game script.
I think that the the first round pick is probably it's probably
fair, but He's definitely I'm most excited when I get a
discount. Like unda where?
And I'm most, like, I feel like I can win the fight a biggest
amount. And this is probably a simple
point, but a biggest amount amount when I'm getting a bigger
discount. Hey, Autumn, because obviously,
we're kind of projecting on for die.
He's gonna dominate this back fields. and I want to, I want to
buy a price where that doesn't assume that so that when he
does, it's just a big win for me.
Yeah. Now that that makes sense and I
would guess, you know, this is just winging it, but I would
guess if there was a best of all season long tournament out right
now, he would still be going sort of right late second,
early, third. So I imagine there's still still
room to get him there. Obviously there's a ton of
exciting wide receivers in that range.
So, you know, it's tough to say without having that list and
look at the names there, but I'd be willing to be pretty
aggressive on them. Just based on how he's performed
so far and I think things are still trending up for He's all
and and and we do have that, we have the daily and basketball
where you want in the last round.
So definitely ways to cook the prophet quite well from being
more aggressive on on Bruce Hall than the market.
Yeah. Agreed.
All right, let's move on to the second chart here.
So now this is looking at more rotational back up, running
backs guys, who were just in the 25 to 45 percent range, in terms
of percent of team plays for they have a rush attempt or a
route. I think a couple things that
stand out here one early season in the Jags backfield Robinson
had A pretty healthy lead on E TN, in terms of expected points.
In terms of snaps that has been trending in the opposite
direction of the past couple weeks.
And, you know, if we had an updated version of this chart
that just showed the last two last three weeks etn, I believe
would be ahead of James Robinson on this chart.
So, etn is a guy in Season long, where I think that the sentiment
for owners is probably still low on him.
They spend earlier Pick likely and haven't really got what they
paid for especially with the Jags offense being sort of down
the last couple weeks, but I'm looking to buy etn in season
long. That's definitely a move.
I would recommend Connor. Any, any comments on that
situation or other other situations you want to touch on
here. So, and just again, looking at
it, the number for just this week and James Robinson 12, At
rush attempts, travesty and 10, and games, Robinson, 8th routes
travel gtn 13. So he would be ahead of a driver
CD. N would be ahead of James
Robinson on looking at more recent data and I think for me
the way I look at these guys is that they're both and young
really talented kind of a potential Superstar Runner.
Hours that are have the fortune or Misfortune, depending how you
look at it to share backfield together.
And that the way I kind of its Because if the split backfield I
think they're both going to be overly discounted and I guess I
want to it's like I want to take the cheaper one and and when
they have their Breakout game I want to benefit and I think I
think it's their boat, really fun pics and and kind of DFS
basketball DFS. And in terms of like Travis
Etienne, trending ahead of James Robinson and I kind of I Do by
it to some degree, but I also think that and James Robinson is
so good. That I don't think he's going to
get dusted. So I want to buy, I want to buy.
What I'm saying is I want to buy etn.
I want to buy James Robinson and when they have their Smash games
and I think they each will have their Smash games.
I want to be in a position to benefit.
Yeah, that's that's a good point.
Yeah, I think and I again to the point of the Jaguars offense, I
think it's a good time to buy Jaguars.
I think we saw them start off the season, really hot.
They've had a couple games where they've looked really bad.
I think the truth is somewhere in the middle for the Jags.
I think they'll be better days ahead so I'm sure.
Yeah. So that's a situation where, you
know, both those guys are probably discounted, you can get
a good price. I do want to talk, you know,
Kenyan Drake is You know without the best, all Resurrection ATP.
I think sort of talking about waivers guys is probably helpful
and relevant this week. Kenyan Drake is a guy that just
this past week he saw 34 snaps out of 59 total team offense of
staff's the Ravens JK Dobbins. Only saw 16 Mike Davis only saw
five he led the team. Also in routes, run targets
carries at the running back position and I'm worried this
Dobbins injury. He looked really bad yesterday
and I think he's sat out for most of the second half with
with knee tightness. I'm worried that an IR move
could be in the future for JK Dobbins or at least there could
be a stretch of time where he remains sort of limited or
ineffective and Mandrake must be the last guy standing in that
backfield. I think Mike Davis looks even
dustier than Drake Gus Edwards have the super long recovery
from the ACL tear. I don't have a ton of confidence
in him. Coming back, just as Bill
dealing with a hamstring injury, those are always tough to come
back from. So I seen the General Industry
sentiment to be like I ignore ignore this Kenyan Drake game
doesn't mean anything, but if you can add them for cheap, you
know, he's not, he's not a guy spending half my fab Budget on,
but if you can get him for, you know, sub 10%.
I do you think he is a pretty solid add especially in these by
weeks coming up or you just kind of need guys to plug into the
flex. I actually think Drake is a
better ad than sort of how I've how I've heard industry people
talk about him so far, you have any thoughts on the Baltimore
backfield? It's been kind of bugging.
You could get a good week from Kenya our Kenyan Drake.
And I don't know that if a m JK Dobbins is like oh I don't know
if he's going to miss an extended stretch I guess.
That the the fact that maybe there's a probability that he
might and that's kind of like upside for a Kenyan Drake and
but the from the comments from John Harbaugh it was like he was
like oh yeah it just said he just didn't feel like he was
having the same explosiveness and so it doesn't really sound
like a setback. Like and and just aren't sorry,
maybe maybe it is. Maybe that's not accurate,
that's not a setback but it's not like he had a significant
doesn't sound like you had a significant setback where he's
going to be sidelined for weeks to ready to come back.
Maybe it was just kind of like some swelling as you come back
from his ACL and mate and I even think that it's in play that
he's good to go for next week. For definitely the week after
and yep I suppose there is some floor there because at Dobbins
is recovering from the ACL. I mean you don't really know
when when he's going to be ready to kind of like take over and So
yeah I think it's probably is definitely Russ terrible and and
like you I'm not particularly excited to do it and but you
know, we drop these 0 or B Team. Then even people who draft, are
you running backs, sometimes you just need a some points this
week from yeah, for cheap. And if you can get that from
then it's definitely worthwhile. Yeah, and so now as I want to
check my bias is a little bit with these guys like the
Latavia. Marin situation is maybe an
interesting one to highlight where I think myself and a lot
of people in the industry like I'll tell you is Marie like,
he's all he's washed up. Its kind of a name that sounds
gross for the amount of teams he's played for the last four
years. He doesn't like explosive at
all, and I was completely downplaying that situation maybe
like obviously I in hindsight, I still wonder spent $300 or
whatever on the table summary, but I think he was worth adding
for cheap and just because of the chance you can take over
that back. Field.
And I think Drake is another guy.
We're just like every every bias.
My brain is like Kenyan Drake washed up, you know, it's been
kind of a journeyman running back the past couple years.
Hasn't shown a lot. Don't they go?
Says, he doesn't belong in the NFL.
Yeah. And like, not an NFL Talent
anymore at which is probably not like, it just probably is some
truth to that. Yeah.
But, I mean, just continue my point.
Like 10, he had 10 rushes for 120 yards last week.
Robin said, 7415, obviously small sample, it's one game, but
like, I can't completely ignore the fact that he just looked way
better than Dobbins. And I'm not sure that a week is
going to magically fix this. Like, me tightening stuff.
But yeah, it's gross. But again, I'm just trying to,
like, I'm trying to check my biases.
On these old wash guys, especially on teams were like, I
don't need a star running back, like, I just need some fucking
points. I did more than any right.
Points. Yeah, but he definitely you
don't. You want to make sure that your
bids are though that your costs is though and that when or when
or if it doesn't look like that. The situation is as positive for
Drake like cuz they he was inactive like what the week
before and when you see that it can be ready to toss them back
with with a little regrets and And we did have a question on
how to monitor your results and the resurrection draft.
And so, what you need to do is you need to hit the live Tab and
then go to best ball, and then you should be able to find the
resurrection tournament from there.
Yeah, and you results like the tournament hasn't first points
will be scored. Oh, no, sorry.
They should have been scored last week, it started.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm feeling alive.
Seeing points populated got it. Yep, cool.
Let's move on to wide receiver. Unless there's other situations
you wanted to touch on there at running back.
So looking at wide receiver here, same chart for those who
are familiar. We're looking at wide receiver
opportunity, measured in terms of weighted targets for Route,
run, first fantasy points. So that results on your lineups
on Sundays and here on this chart we have Okin players into
four quadrants. So in the top right, we have
strong performers. These are players with very
strong roles that are scoring a lot of points in the bottom.
Right quadrant, we have players that are potential by Lowe's,
they have really strong roles, they're earning a lot of
opportunity, but they're not converting it to fantasy points
at a high rate. That's potential area to look
for by Lowe's. And then we also have cell highs
in the top left corner. These are guys that have very, I
would say minimal or middling roles, but are scoring a lot of
fantasy points. Situation where you might want
to potentially sell a hot seller guy, hi there.
And then finally bottom left quadrant jokingly we have sort
of the cardio specialist so those are guys who are just out
there getting some wind Sprints in and they're not really
they're not really playing football, there's kind of
they're just kind of getting their cardio and out there.
But yeah, the first thing I want to mention on this chart just
just for fun. Connor, I included Travis Kelce
and Mark Andrews. This week just to see how they
compared against the elite wide receivers and I was I was blown
away by where Mark Andrews pops up on this chart.
He has the highest weighted targets per route, run out of
any player that's running more than 85% of routes higher than
Davante Adams higher than Cooper cup higher than Justin
Jefferson. All these you know Elite wide
receivers that we're taking the first six pics of fantasy.
This year. Mark Andrews is Showing up as a
more dominant wide receiver than them at the tight end position
in terms of role. Now, one like he's probably not
going to score as much of those guys number one because you
know, he still has a tie down he probably doesn't have quite the
same receiving prowess has them. Although I'd argue it's close
but I think the bigger Factor number two, is that he's on the
Ravens and sort of a lower volume environment then those
guys. So yeah, I don't know that this
this chart just made me even more bullish on Market.
Andrews. I think he was a steal this
summer going the late second round, and now I think if
they're a fantasy draft today, I would be taking him, you know,
right? I think probably behind
Jefferson and cop, but I think I'd be taking him ahead of Chase
and Adams and then someone like digs would be, would be very
close for me. It's just such a positional
advantage to have Andrews or Kelsey in fantasy this year.
Any thoughts here on these Lankan and ties and premium or
Yeah, I guess Titan premium. I would tell any premium.
I think I would go even higher for and like I'm not sure inside
and premium that Andrews and Kelsey shouldn't be number one.
And number two, because I have a hard honestly, have a really
hard time seeing how in the three weeks, shootout.
Okay, well, maybe this is talking about ffp.
See, it's a there. FTC made event drafts held
today. Let's use that as a
hypothetical. I think I would take Andrews.
Number one, Kelsey number. To because they're really the
only tight ends that even approached, this kind of usage.
They've legit like Alpha number one, wide receiver usage at the
tight end position and the rest of the tight end position as
completely flopped, I think it's going to be real, it's really
hard to see how you win a three-week shoot out without one
of those guys. So, maybe I'm like a little
ahead of my skis here and you can certainly argue for
McCaffrey Berkeley. You know, copper Jefferson over
those guys, but I think there are all at least in the same
tier and like personally I would go with one of the lead tight
ends and then hope I can, you know, still get some lead water
severs and sort of running backs later in the draft because I
know there's no way you're getting any tight end that's
going to match the scoring over a three-year period and tighten
premium of Kelsey and Andrews. Right.
And so I mean that that doesn't sound like the work.
It doesn't have like the worst pick to make and I'm the owner
my only kind of a concern at would be that it is still a lot
of points to put to pay for a tight end and so if I look at so
if I look at F Fe c-- Points, so Travis Kelce out scores every
other what every wide receiver, he's a high-scoring flex player
and what my only concern would be that even though we that's a
six-week sample size and it is kind of hard to see that
continue all season and but at the same just just given that
he's an older player. But at the same time he he Looks
great and the fact that he is the highest scoring for
ex-player on ffp. See makes I it does make for a
very, very strong Arguments for for tight ends to be one and two
and yeah in ffv see it honestly it's a it is a bit of a hot take
but it's one that's hard too hard, to really throw stones at.
So. Yeah.
And I don't want to go like last point.
I'll make Make here is like and this is going down a rabbit hole
of hypotheticals. But if it was a one-week final,
I don't think I would take and it was a Kelsey there, right?
Because I think in a one-week sample size, I could definitely
see David and joke, you having a big game, you know, even maybe
Kyle pits coming back from the grave and having a big game.
But over a three-week stretch, I just think these two guys given
how different their roles are than any other title in the
league. One of them is going to
separate, so Massively from the field in a way, you know.
I think it's I think it's possible wide receiver that
happens to you right? Like, cop can go off, but I
think at wide receiver, you're more likely to find, you know,
that mon Rothstein Brown of last year, you know, maybe pick up
Juan Del Robinson and he puts together a crazy run down the
stretch. I think that's possible to find
those Diamonds in the Rough at wide receiver.
In a way that like at tight end over a three-week period.
I think you're just like, you're not, you're not going to find
it. So but anyways, that was a lot
of time at I dance. As for the wide receiver chart.
Let's let's talk about some receivers here.
Connor any any guys that stand out to you?
Maybe maybe in the Box. I guess a question to make more
targeted. Any of the guys like hovering in
that by low range, that you are most excited about going
forward. And so obviously we had the we
had the Brendan, I you call last week and then he had very drunk.
since last week, which was really nice to see at real
ownership and it's It's hard to it's hard to really make a case
for anybody that we haven't talked about before.
And they Jones is showing up as getting a strong and strong
Target for right run, and obviously ridiculously cheap.
So interested there. Joshua Reynolds is somewhat
interesting. And what I am, I'm almost more.
Interested in that Jameson Williams is coming back soon and
would be taken over that role and yeah, I think Reynolds is a,
just a follow-up on Reynolds. I think a great spot.
Start, you know, said said, shark misses a game or a
monitors, misses a game and Jamison still hasn't come back
yet. I think you can do a lot worse
than putting Reynolds in the ear Flex as like a spot starter.
But yeah, I think in the long term with Jameson coming back
with charc. Not suffering a major injury.
Like I have a hard time seeing that that pay off in the long
run but I think a good like DFS player spot starred in the right
sort of injury situation landscape there.
But yeah, continue sounds like you had some other other
thoughts and so Robbie Anderson does look interesting giving
that he's now been traded to the Cardinals.
Yeah the Cardinals are tricky offense now just because they
haven't played very well but and Given that they do get nuke back
and Hollywood is now injured. I do think Robby understand when
he when he goes play will be really interesting as a kind of
number two that could benefit from new drawing a coverage.
Yep. Yeah, I think those are all
those are all good ones. Yeah, it's tough to, you know,
it's like we already talked about Elijah more like there, it
feels like there should be a blow of game and then they have
what 18 pass attempts that's like, do I do I really want to
wear? Do I really want to go down that
road again? Yeah, I'm starting to almost
throw in the towel on a larger more like I still think.
Any guy that's running 90 to 95% of the routes, you know, he's
worth the DF. Like I still think he's a good
DFS play is going to be really low owned in the matchup where
they're forced to throw. I think he could luck into sort
of a big Target game just you know we saw it a little with
Allen Robinson last week, right? Like not a not a massive game
with these type of like wind Sprint, guys.
Just the fact they're on the field means they can stumble
into five catches and a touchdown.
No, I still think Elijah Moore's, Talent is good enough
that he could break off. Off a Long play Here, There and
be sort of a good DFS play. But yeah, man, it would have to
be sort of a large, a large tournament play.
I think, because he's just, not really, he's not really earning
earning the targets at this point, like he's not even in the
Bi-Lo for those looking at the chart.
He's he's mourn in cardio. Specialist near guys like Josh
Palmer, Allen Robinson, Robbie Anderson.
So it's a little, a little scary for him from sort of a
season-long perspective. But it definitely feels like
gross play. Yeah, but and the only thing
about it is like, should he be earning zero targets.
I think the answer is no and it will they find a way to correct?
That kind of hope. So, yeah, so it's a very
uncomfortable play but he is a player that is good enough that
if he were to hit would hit in a really big way.
Yep. Well that's kind of what I think
we should touch on the only guy who's, you know, in the cell.
I quadrant Gabriel Davis and I heard this sort of paraphrase
hidden Winks on a podcast. He said that the learn Target
share Bros. Lose again, with Gabriel Davis
and I think it's kind of it was in jest, but It's this weird
thing with Gabe Davis where you know I think there's this stance
where you can be Pro gave Davis and acknowledged that his earned
Target share is going to be pretty bad and you're just it's
just like very unique situation where he's on the best offense
in the league you know with the highest-scoring expectation of
any quarterback in Joshua Allen and just that is like we're so
used to thinking about sustainability in terms of
Target, share and targets and yards.
Davis, I think this touchdown stuff like is somewhat sticky
and you can rely on it. Even though it's Target share is
going to be bad, I would still make the point that you know,
back to last week he was going in the same range as guys like
DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper, you know Courtland Sutton these guys
who are earning massive roles and I can't justify like valuing
Gabe higher than that. But that said, like, if you have
Gabe Davis and fantasy like I still think you should be.
Riding him like this. This is somewhat.
It's maybe like a lukewarm take but I think like he's probably
slightly overvalued. But this touchdown stuff in this
big play stuff, I think is like somewhat sustainable, even
though it's really, really low Target volume for him.
Yeah. And and I think and the volume
as well as not terrible. And you mean the raw volume like
not the yeah, they're all volume.
Yeah, like and last. So, last week, he did have an,
you had five targets and 88 your are yards which is like not
amazing, but it's not bad either.
At the week before he had 268 your are yards on them on six
targets. Yeah.
He's still capping out. Like I think is highest Target
total in the game is like six this year and it's been a lot of
weight. We're really gonna earn five or
six really, really valuable targets.
Yeah. Every week and, and the tiger
chair is always going to be low, but it's almost like they have
so many pass attempts that even a low Target share if so getting
you fight 26 and those fight the 6ab such how you touched on
Equity that he is going to be a point score but definitely Not
after a value that he belongs in the turton for her done for
grounds. Yeah, I really do.
I think we agreed there. It's just interesting to look
through the numbers. Yeah, he's a true sort of
anomaly in the data this year. So interesting, talking point,
let's move on to this next group of wide receivers, in the 65 to
85 percent of routes run categories.
These are guys that are, you know, anywhere from sort of
close to full time players like digs Kill two guys that are more
maybe slot guys or guys are not earning a vast majority of their
team's routes Connor. The first guy I wanted to talk
about here and I tweeted this in my thread, was Chris olave.
He breaks the chart here in terms of the role.
Now I think like he had these insane out being compared to
what should I have for calling out?
You have to change the axis of this chair.
Art to accommodate and and so on the first page this way to
Target for outrun only goes to 80%.
Yeah, from you have to change the 84 85 percent because now
they're breaking the chart. Put it was 80%.
They wouldn't even be on the page.
Yeah, they would they don't even show up if you kept, the axe is
the same side. I had to adjust it.
Yeah. Lava and Tyree.
I mean, Tyrese obvious like, man.
He's the biggest smash this year.
We can talk about intersect but a Lobby is, maybe an Some guy
from a season-long perspective where I think there's still a
buying opportunity on him. The fantasy points, haven't
quite caught up to his role and I think the owner could be
spooked by that concussion. I mean, maybe you should be
slightly spooked by like concussion.
It did look bad. But his role is just massive
and, you know, compared to these other, some of these other
rookies he's just in such a better situation.
Drake London has the whole sort of Kyle pits problem of the
Atlanta offense just Just progressing to the 1940s.
You have guys like Garrett Wilson who are just not getting
the full set of the team snaps you know, Sky more even even
worse and that in that Spectrum. So a lot of a I think, is the
rookie I'm most excited about going forward and as somebody,
I'd be willing to pay up for, if, you know, I'm trying to
think of a good, like, example of a trade offer I would send in
a league like any sort of middling running back, maybe you
Send off David Montgomery and cash donor falling asleep.
Who might give, you Crystal Ave like running back, some that
sort of range I might be looking to move for a lot of a over
under. How many people listen to this
podcast? Drafted David Montgomery.
Yeah, that's true. Then diagram of people who
listen to his podcast and drafted.
David Montgomery is it's tiny and if you are one of those
people just know that we love you but you're in the minority.
Yeah. So this this advice, I'm just
realizing what it was for. Absolutely, nobody out here,
listening. But maybe there's, there's one.
There's got to be one of you, drafted.
David Montgomery out there and get rid of him.
Let's get down to zero. David Montgomery.
Oh, Owners in this podcast. And this ended last week, I
thought maybe that's just weak one stuff, but even last week,
he only ran a route on a 62% that of the Dropbox.
Like CS man. It's just like the big hoarding
route sauce week. Yeah.
What the fuck? We ate that.
I mean, it's just the Braxton various stuff is just, it's just
when there's a fourth like, you know, it goes under, I think
under notice and not talked about much when there's a fourth
wide receiver out there that the team likes that's going to just
hurt everybody. Unless you're on a really good
offense. I think like, you know, digs and
get away with the fact that there's these sort of forth
water severs to get some looks and he doesn't have 100% role,
you know, obviously isn't the bills, like someone like that
can get away with it, but what's the team like that when he goes
play, when they got him on the field?
They're like, okay, we're trying to dicks.
Yeah. Like when they take him off the
field is to give him a breeder so that they control to him or
when he comes back. Whereas these other offenses,
it's definitely tougher. Jeff's.
I mean come on, don't give Jeff Smith.
It snaps, just give those give those to Gary Wilson.
There's, there's no need for that.
Yeah. Anyways, this, this question was
interesting from Nick that I wanted to bring up.
London or Bateman rest of season.
Connor watch you go first year and then I'll share share my
stance. So I would lean probably fate
moment at this stage and yeah with him just because obviously
we're worried about the injury won't want to come back from the
injury and the Raven. It's just, it's one of those
things of like, the talent is, is drag one that probably has a
slight Edge in Talent. Slight slight Edge but Bateman
is, is kind of It's holding them to an almost draw and then the
offense that you want to be involved in is so obviously the
the Ravens over the Falcons where they're going to scoot
score, so many more touchdowns, they're going to have so much
more production. Overall, you got the play with
Lamar Jackson like I'm generally and weighing a talent over
offense, but when the town is that close and then the off one
offense and so much clearly better than the I guess it.
I think the offense kind of overrules the rest of it.
Yeah, I'm with you there and on the Falcons I was just looking
at this, you know, I think a big problem with the Falcons is they
like they need to be pushed to pass if it's closed or they're
winning. Like, Mariota, I think was 13 of
14. Last week these insanely low
past total games, I just want to point out.
On their schedule. It's not getting a lot better.
So they have the Bangles this next week that can be good.
The Bangles could push them. I could see that one being good
for London pits. Then it goes Panthers Chargers.
Again, that would be okay, but then Panthers again, then the
Bears then the Commander's, then the Steelers, then the Saints.
I mean, Panthers twice Bears, commanders, Steelers.
I mean, that's five of the next seven games where I don't really
Spect the other team to push them and they're going to get
away with just this tale of Huntley, 15 carries Tyler,
ideal, or algae or 10. Carries like these these games
were, they don't need to throw at all.
So I'm really nervous about the volume in Atlanta.
And I would also be on the Bateman side of things.
I mean the foot injuries are always scary.
I guess the fact that he wasn't on I are like, I'm retaining
some optimism. He'll be able to come back this
year and and produce I'm just I'm going for the Offense, that
has more upside even though London in a better offense, with
the way he's dominating targets, could really, really smash it
out of stone. I don't think it's gonna happen
with the land of this year. I think I would fail.
So you better about it if they were losing games and but
they're like, they're going quite 500 right now.
They've won three games. So like it's not like the coach
is going to be under this pressure to change approach or
is job is under pressure. Like you can feel pretty good
that they're going to play like this for the rest of year
unfortunately. Yeah.
Couple quick hits I had and then I think we should move on.
I think taekwon Thornton is a guy that you should add
everywhere. I would say, ffp c-style leagues
I would go up to 10% ish for Thornton your other leagues.
You can probably add in for free or more casual home leagues.
And then Chris God when I think is one of the Best Buy Low
candidates out there, he is showing a bigger role week in
and week out and we often see guys coming off of a Tears.
We see the second half of the year, they show out a lot
better. It often takes them a while to
sort of to get their confidence and even sort of their snap rate
up in the first half of the season.
So I'm expecting big things had for Godwin.
Any other quick hits you wanted to touch on here Connor.
No, I think I think you covered it, okay.
I'll let you have the floor here on this last chart for the wide
receiver opportunity versus fantasy points.
And this these are all guys getting less than 65% of their
team routes. I think a couple interesting
rookies just talked about here. One, our cover boy, in wandel
Robinson for this episode. Male 1 Dale.
Sorry I forgot he had the Latino excellent pronunciation there
but yeah. Want to talk.
Let's talk about $1, a what? What is our level of excitement
going forward? And so obviously really excited
to see him with strong Target, earning ability.
And so the fact that he is what you call it not playing the the
snaps that we want yet is a, I guess means you're not going to
start on next week, but The joints really do need a lot of
help at wide receiver. So the fact that he is producing
at a really high rate on a personal basis and both both in
terms of kind of like getting captures in yards and then also
that he caught, he caught, you got the touchdown for him and
means that he is someone where you have to feel good that he's
going to be a big part of their offense as the season.
It goes on. And yeah, one concern is that
it's a Jain so that the passing game is probably not going to be
too big of a party but and he's a really talented.
Rookie dominated in college at his first is, I guess the second
game back, he played really strong and his product.
His efficiency has been quite good.
So definitely. To a tied him to a bench and
wait for him to kind of take off a bit.
Yep, the green just add a little bit more numbers to it.
He was only at, like, 25 percent actually under 25% routes last
week, but I expect that to grow. There's nobody really ahead of
him there that could challenge him from a talent perspective.
So, yeah, great, great person out of your benches and he could
be, you know, if we're looking for an Amon-Ra stb, Brown this
year guy who sort of does nothing the first half of
season, then comes on huge down the stretch, I would look to one
Dale, Sky more and taekwon Thornton is sort of the three
top candidates there. Now, odds of anybody doing
what's a rounded obviously, really low.
But we got to take some steps here and those guys all profile,
as you know day one or start day, two NFL picks on, you know,
teams not a lot of wide receiver.
Ahead of them that are flashing strong Target, learning
abilities in limited sample sizes.
So yeah, all three of them at one point about on Dale and that
I think is easy to miss so and people see someone with his
stature and athletic kind of archetype, oh, he's earning a
bunch of targets. Must be a gadget guy, so he
actually got an average depth of Target of 9.3 last week at 37
are yards on it. Four targets.
And so, definitely not a gadget guy and actually legitimate at
running proper routes and FL receiver.
And we're excited to see what he can do to rest of your.
Yep, and last thing I'll mention on him is I think, you know,
also he did play running back quite successfully in college so
I do think there is a bit of a contingent upside where Berkeley
to the good to go down the giant son of a None of that running
back room and I do think he would have a chance at least a
turning some kind of Devo. Samuel Curtis Samuel asked
running back usage in the Giants where Berkeley to go down, but
obviously that's, you know, more of a contingency, sort of Fringe
scenario, but I do think that at least possible given his profile
Let's end with tight ends here. Connor we for people have been
listening. This is the same chart we've
always had similar to the running back.
One where we're looking at percent of Team drop backs and
we just want to know on drawbacks, are these tie-downs
out there. Are they running routes and we
sort of ordered the chart as so. So guys running the most routes
Mark, Andrews, George, Kittle Etc.
On the far, left-hand side of this chart.
Art and we also have Target / outrun shown at the bottom here.
So how many targets are they learning when they actually run
a route and a taut? So are they being used as sort
of a shallow area dump-off guy? AKA Tyler higbee or are they
being used as a wide receiver down the field?
Like our boy Greg dulcich with the highest start
second-highest. Eight out of any tight end in
this chart behind only Kyle pits.
I think that's a natural. Little place to start here,
Connor. So we wanted to make them Ararat
our cover boy, but the the flagship show said, no, that's
are cover boy and yeah, we were. So they would literally replace
us within 10 minutes if we had that as recover boy.
So we have, we had the capitulate.
And yeah, damn, I guess for an 18 round picked up was often
undrafted getting a very strong Target.
Actually red chair is super encouraging and then he I guess
he's also getting down the field looks deep.
I guess the only possible concern is that the target
share. There is still pretty low.
And yes, if he ran around out here an 27 routes, I believe on
34 drawbacks and saw just three targets, but yeah, I think on a
one-week sample size, the the target rate is extremely
variable. I'm just way more excited on the
fact that he was out there running all those routes.
I mean, he iced Tomlinson Sauber.
Alberto healthy scratchy. I saw these these guys that have
been getting looks in past weeks.
So yeah, I'm extremely bullish. Like, I don't think it's, I
think it's fair to call him. You know, a low-end tied end one
already for the rest of your client.
I tend to like not as the other piece that is.
So I'm worried about the day, eleven percent Target share, but
when compared to other tight ends I rookie got a rookie
getting that high. Message of routes and Ada
immediately compared to other Titans.
It's like the in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is King.
Yeah. And he said his route, he still
Rao's daughter. To dance is really strong.
Yeah. And this is give like, you know,
for people making sit star decisions.
Like, you know, what is the line for the essentially?
I'm still planning joke over him.
We'll probably play in TJ Hawkinson over him, but then
once we get down to like the hate in her stall, seen knocks
Gerald Everett range. I think I'm going to go with the
upside with dulcich there. You know, it's highly variable
we don't have a ton of data on him but he's out there running
all the routes he's being used downfield, you're looking for
offside with these you know, late tight end stabs.
Like I want a guy who can catch like a 30-yard.
Seen pass for a touchdown. And I don't really want the guys
like, you know, Conklin where you're just praying for like
the, I guess Conklin has a high doll that's maybe a bad example,
but the guy like Austin Hooper where you're just praying, you
know, he gets a Red Zone touchdown, he's never going to
make a play down the field. So I'm pretty excited about
dulcich going forward and congrats everybody who who
stashed him or drafted him in the eighteenth round.
Anything else? I mean, we talked about Andrews
and Kelsey, just they blow everybody else out of the water
here. I think it's kind of a similar
story that we've touched on with kid'll daughter and Waller
before, we're like the roles still, look pretty good but it's
nice seeing it kiddos that route shirt.
Creep up, even more significant. Number two Rideshare, 18 percent
Target for that run. And it is nice to see him
getting more involved after kind of get not quite are bald but
close to it in the first couple weeks.
Yeah, I think that's true. I do think like that 18% number
for Kindle and for Waller I just noticed when suddenly also has
that number like it's not bad but it's kind of a bummer
considering it doesn't really stand out from the rest of the
field here. Like it's probably slightly
above average but You got, Zach, ertz, 20% targets for outrun.
You got Dallas, Carter, there at 17.
You got Ingram at 18 Pig, be a 24%, like all these middle and
guys, you got a lot later, like, Waller and Kettle aren't really
separating from them. Which I think at this point,
like I'd rather have Waller and kid old and those guys I
mentioned, but I think it was a Miss potentially to be drafting
them where I was this off season.
I think I have a lot of both of those guys.
And I think probably the move this year.
Obviously in retrospect, if you could do it over again, you
would take a ton of Kelsey, would take a ton of Andrews and
you'd probably fade the middle round.
Tie the ends which I did did hear some people advocating for
this offseason so congrats not ready to throw in the towel on
kiddo. Just got.
Yeah, I don't think you should give up either, but it's yeah, I
mean I'm not trying to suggest that you were saying that people
should cuddle. Mmm, but and I'm still, I'm
still ready to invest in kiddo and but Waller, I'm a bit more.
I'm a bit more worried and just given that we got the bigger
sample size and, and still have that kind of like eighteen
percent Target share, which is not really where you want it.
Yeah, it's not. Great and hamstring injuries.
Were older players. Also Not great.
Let's let's wrap this thing up with the you know we get asked
about this chart every week I get people the enemy Sam.
Can you make third string, tight end chart?
You know the back up tight end chart isn't quite scratching the
itch you know I can't quite commit to that yet.
That's still going to be behind the pay wall but the backup the
backup tight. End chart we do have this week,
a lot of really exciting names on here.
We got Eric's Albert, you got Pharaoh Brown.
We got Tommy tremble you know guys who I definitely know what
team they're on Tanner Hudson. That's another guy.
Definitely definitely know what team he's on death.
They don't have to look it up. Okay, now that you're done
telling us all, please give me actionable information on these
tight end side. Actually I did have some notes
here. So there's some interesting
tight end injuries to monitor while are we talked about so
Jesper oersted with I believe came from the Bears and is now
in the Raiders he actually got the start and ran a pretty ran
sort of a Waller like route share when both him sorry with
both Waller and Moreau Miss time.
So for those of you who are really desperate monitor the
Moreau and Waller situations and in tight end premium I don't
think horse dead would be the worst flyer.
Similarly in Tampa Bay there's an injury situation.
Cameron Bure went down with the pretty scary neck injury.
I probably should have led with this.
Because I think it's the the more exciting add, but I think
Kate Austen, he's probably been scooped up in your, your
high-stakes really competitive leagues, but he's probably out
there in a ton of casual leagues.
I think he is a pretty good start going forward.
I expect breit to miss some time.
He's earned, I believe seven targets.
And in his last start, when Bray it went down.
So, decent role there, for Alton and then Hendershot is the other
guy with Schultz. Let me actually check the The
Dallas routes last week, but Schultz did not play.
And what did this high density equation?
Look like, I believe it was Hendershot, that was ahead.
Yep. So Hendershot ran. 23 routes on
38, drawbacks, Jake Ferguson, ran, 15 Hendershot saw five
targets. So he's leaving the tight ends
there and routes again, if you're really desperate, I think
these are three, Andrew situations a monitor in Dallas,
Tampa Bay, and Los Vegas and in the last last pack up tight on
thing. I want to mention the Daniel
Bellinger roll. This is more anecdotally.
I wish I had more data to back this up, but it seems to be
growing and they're also scheming him like running plays.
I believe he had a rushing touchdown in the past two weeks.
Yeah, actually looking at this is from Nathan janki at PFF, but
Bellinger's percentage of offensive snaps have has risen
almost Every week this year from right at 50% in week, 12 above
85%, this past week, so he's really taking over the tight end
role there in New York and on a team where, you know, we talked
about how bear in the wide receiver room is.
I think for the more casual leagues out there, where
Ballinger's still on waivers, he is definitely worth an ad.
Yeah, so I got I got excited. They're in the back up
tie-downs. Not sure I left you and me about
the contingent value for Harrison Bryant.
Exactly, I wish that was a joke but I feel like we've talked
about that on every podcast so far.
So so he's arrogant, he's got that high Target for that run
when David and joke who goes down, you're just gonna be
licking your lips, that your bus licking, your chops that you get
that number one, tight ends and Cleveland.
Yeah, we are the only podcast talking about Harrison Brian
every single week, right? The best Victory lap of all
time. Yeah.
And we win money. It hurts and Brian.
Yeah, I think. Yeah.
Alright, well that was, you know, well maybe hit the 3rd
string tight ends next week but going to have to close it out
there. That was fun.
Connor talked a lot about a lot of interesting situations.
I'll just do a couple quick plugs.
Number one if you want to again. Like I talked about the top if
you want to join these streams live to ask questions, get
yourself into the ship chasing Discord, a lot of good
conversations, Shane going on there.
We also have p grach and Pat hopping into those as well.
Which I'm sure you guys are all aware of.
But yeah, that's that's number one, number two, you can check
out my all my takeaways from these charts on Twitter at
underscore or sorry at Sherman underscore ffb on Twitter will
sort of more detailed thoughts on these charts.
Connor, anything to plug before we get out.
Here. Hey yeah.
Not in particular as subscribe. Right over his and Jonas and the
Discord. I was a lot of fun would look to
anybody who listens to the show and would like to chat with us.
And we're all ways that are not always available but generally
available, Yep. Yeah, feel free to leave mean
YouTube comments as well. That really is a good way to
engage with us. Always happy to answer those,
The Untouchables. Yeah.
Well, anyways, that was fun for backup.
Tied and chasing. We will see you next week.
Good luck in week 7, everybody.