Good morning. Happy new Year from rainy
Buffalo. I'm Mike Shove, ADP chasing is
back to recap some of the best ball season.
I mean, what a win for Sam Sherman.
Incredible. We'll talk about that for a
minute and handicapped our chances of winning next year.
I think that might be in the offing.
Then we'll build an FFPC playoff challenge team.
That's always fun that glorious week of the year to do that.
And we'll wrap with the the highly anticipated last Call
results grand prize of zero $1,000,000 with our heroes, Pat,
Jacob and Davis. I'm Mike Schoke, thanks for
being with us. ADP Chasing January 6th, 2026.
ADP chasing is for when you watch ship chasing you go these
guys are just football guys. I have my 4% exposure blanket.
Stay poor, actually. Back in, if it's Austin, it's.
Here to our crystal ball. close your eyes.
You know all your entries are going to lose anyway.
Yeah. That's fair.
You're. Not going to tell me how this
went. I was here.
It's anti cabal, it's anti the best ball thought leader.
I'm obviously lying to some degree because like, I have a
lot of both of these guys. It's the most disgusting thing
you can make, but. Man.
There he is, my first chance on the stream to congratulate Sam.
What a cool thing. Amazing.
How do you do it? The Niners, right?
I mean largely hit everybody. Pat, what was the?
Well, Derrick Henry was was pretty massive.
It was a classic Sam team, I would say, where he had some
sloppy guys, some guys he mocked is overly slappy and then and
then some guys we mocked. Him winning with Burden is a fun
like him winning with Burden is just a phenomenal bit like you
do gotta hand it to him. JSN is.
I mean, that's an incredible bet he JSN was.
MM Micah Bernard could not be reached for comment at this
time. Week 17, Luther Burden, Week 17.
With that, with that roster, sometimes you got to do it.
It was a combo. It was a combo of of slappy guys
who hit and and guys who hit the the Slappy's avoided.
So very good team. Well, I think Pete has gone
above and beyond listing me as a Co favorite of the group to win
next year. I mean, I think.
I I mean Co Co favorite. I, I would say, I would say you
are, I would say you are the strong favorite chess Liam.
So here's the issue with chess Liam winning again at plus 350.
He, he currently is spending all of his karmic points on the
bills winning at like multiple playoff games.
This I like I, I, I know I am annoying about the chiefs stuff.
Everything I've seen from Liam in the last two weeks has been
like, you guys don't understand how fucking good the Bills are
going to be in the playoffs. Dude, I I hope that the Bills
get fucking blasted on Sunday like I I I.
I actually think I have. Never seen anything more
annoying than Liam like it is. It has made me want to take out
such a large bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I I can't imagine clicking a Buffalo Bill in the gauntlet
just after absorbing this content.
And it's not even just the Bill stuff.
It's like he's he's decided this entire and and show don't catch
any shrapnel. If it was just you, I'd be
buying a Bill's jersey for the Super.
Bowl, I am not. I am not offended.
It's a credit. It's a credit to Liam in a way,
because we have Shope, we have Leone.
Like there's like. Go Bills.
There's, there's like a lot of
Bills fans in my life that I root for, but I hope they get
their fucking asses kicked. See you guys, you guys right
now, and I'm sorry to do this, you guys are making a classic,
classic error with Liam, which is that you, you guys are unable
to see how funny it is. This is this is your, this is
your, this is everyone's classic error with Liam in which they
don't understand that he's literally one of the funniest
people alive. And that if you think of this as
a, a full, if you, if you think of it as a full bit, it's it's
very like, it's very funny. I, I see, I see a Liam talking
about how shitty Trevor Lawrence is.
And I'm like, yes, this is very funny.
It's very funny to like the the the idea that everyone in our
little corner of the Internet is like, yeah, dude, the fucking
Jags of all the teams to make a run in the AFC like we all have.
I've forgotten all of our priors of the last five years on Trevor
Lawrence. And we've now decided that that
Josh Allen is the little engine who could like, of course.
Just he's the little engine. He's he's got horrible coaching
for defense stocks. Yeah, like literally just Josh
Allen. He he's got no receivers like
they're playing Brandon Cooks, Tyrol Shavers, like the
receivers are a joke. Thanks Jacob, the literal NFL
rushing leader. But yes, go on.
Yes, I know. I'm thanking you for it.
Yes. But that's it, those two.
Nothing else. You've got James Cook, but James
Cook is actually counterproductive in some ways
because they've run the ball too much.
Like if James Cook was a receiver, I'd feel much better
about them because they'd actually like build the game
game plans around the past. But they're gonna, you have to
trust them to go into Jacksonville and attack through
the air because Jags are pass funnel.
They're much, much weaker through the air than on the
ground. I don't trust them to do that at
all. I think they're they're gonna
stubbornly run the ball like they're the friggin Panthers and
they they're trying to hide. I don't even.
Probably succeed because I, I think I might even go like you
said, Pat, that you're like, well, look, James Cook is so
good that it, that it makes them run the ball more.
I, I think that's probably the actual order of operations.
But what if conspiracy theory they like running so much, they
intentionally sabotage their pass game by employing the worst
wide receivers ever. So they have a justification to
run the ball more. Well, they that that I don't buy
because we have evidence the thesis.
I don't think. I don't think Show could have
gotten yelled at on the radio if that were true.
They they thought these receivers were good.
I just know two things. I, I think Jacksonville's number
most rushing yards allowed in a game is 130 and that's because
Davis Mahomes went for 60 yards in that game.
That's their high. The Bills are over that number I
think 7 times, by the way, 2-3 years ago in Vegas.
And with the go Bills winners high king cause for watching
Luigi and Leone is coming to join us at craft steak for
dinner and he's bringing Gretch, who I had not yet met.
And the two of them arrived. They come from the airport.
They sit down at the table, table of seven round table and
Gretch sort of introduces everybody introduces themselves
to him. And at one point sort of he hits
it hits him. Wait, am I at a table with six
Bills fans? And he sort of starts to get up
and Leone sort of holds him down so he can't leave.
But it was a great night. You know, critical.
What what what I would say is I also under like you guys are
less unabashedly, I guess Jacob actually is a huge Homer when
when the Colts were good for that 11 weeks.
But like. Great, 11 weeks.
The Chiefs, if the Chiefs right now were the the the
corresponding like the six seed in this spot, I mean, I would
be, I would be like so annoying because every if this iteration
of the Chiefs had somehow found a way to qualify for the
postseason, everyone would have said they were dead.
Everyone would have it would have been it would have been the
same thing like, oh, they can't run the ball.
They're all I so, so I I am able to understand where Liam is
coming from a little better, I think.
But well. But my favorite thing about the
bit Liam is doing is like the the way to to the way that the
Bills win the Super Bowl, which is like possible, by the way,
like it's like so wide open, like everybody agrees is it's
just they have the best quarterback in every single game
they play. And so Josh Allen is just going
to be so incredible that they can do that.
And then what he's done so well, he's like, he's recognized that.
And so he's decided, I'm going to frame my entire view of the
playoffs and I'm just going to pick the best quarterback in
every matchup. She's like, not only is he a
Bills guy, but he's like, I'm going to pick the Chargers to go
on a big run because. Of just wait, why was he picking
the charges? If he's picking the best
quarterback, shouldn't you pick the MVP?
Oh God. I mean, I would, I would, I
would the impression. I was gonna pick.
There we go. We're getting it.
We're getting it from all angles on the program now.
Yeah, we got, we're right over here.
I got a letter over right here. Isn't that kind of the natural
thing? Are you Are you in the Justin
Herbert looks so good that the stats don't matter to me Camp
that he's actually the best. Quarterback.
No, I think. I think that Drink Man should be
the MVP. I I do think that Justin Herbert
is a better quarterback than Drake May.
I don't. I don't even think it's close.
Herbert's not done anything. Close.
It's not. Herbert's never done anything
even close to what May's doing this year in his second year.
Like he's never looked this good or done this well.
What a schedule. I would vote for Stafford.
The votes were were. Would you now?
I wouldn't put. I would.
Definitely vote. I would definitely vote for May
I I think I think that the gap between them in and I'm usually
like an EPA hater, but in this case, I think it it it helps in
that like it's such a huge gap and and the fact is like if in
theory, Stafford should have the Stafford should have be the one
with the big gap. Like if you look at their
schedule, as much as Mace had a really easy schedule, the EPA,
the past defenses place is not played, is not.
Equivalent. It's literally one spot.
I think it was 17th and 18th. They're both middle of the pack.
Barnwell did a whole analysis. Who was higher?
I'm not even sure that that Stafford was oh.
Damn was. Stronger it was.
It was like completely negligible And and then and then
you you also have like the fact that yeah and Daniels good play
caller. Yeah.
I mean, I'd still rather have Sean McVay.
You have Puka and Adams over you know, the the assortment of the
guys they got. They also have a ridiculously
good run game with the Rams. I I, I think it's clearly.
I think, I think it's, it's obviously.
And it's ridiculous. It's ridiculous that I think
it's close. I think it's like the the media
loves Stafford, but I don't know it's.
Clearly a lifetime achievement award for Stafford.
It's it's honestly like A to the level where it's like a
fraudulent MVP. If he wins like there, it's his
buddy. Excuse me?
Lovsky voting for him. I think it's completely
fraudulent if he wins like he's his season has not been like.
I know say all the bills crap you want, but now you're going
to tell me like my take is completely unqualified because.
I don't. I don't think he's even close to
the MVP. Because we're friends.
He and I are friends. Significantly worse than.
George, are you are you friends with Stafford?
Has he been on the show? Has Stafford.
Been on the show? Had him on the radio.
I listened to it. There's a radio hit.
You were delighted to have him watching and.
He screamed at me because I. Said if it was my ballot and
they'll never give me a ballot, then if it was, I would
certainly have Josh Allen higher than Matthew Stafford on my
ballot. I would have Josh Allen over
Matthew Stafford as well. Like if you trade Josh Allen to
the Rams, the Rams are way, way better.
If if it's Matthew Stafford on the Bills, they they suck.
They didn't make the playoffs. Everyone with the season that
both guys had, everyone realizes that.
I think deep down maybe you're not willing to admit it because
you're a staff of MVP guy like like someone on the show.
But like and you know, and you do the same thing with me, like.
I'd like to say I'm actually fine giving Stafford the
lifetime achievement MVP because he does.
Like I think it's fine for him to have an MVP, but like if you
were doing it on. I don't think it's fine.
It's not the award. If you're doing it on.
Well, yeah, but that's kind of way.
If you're doing it on merit, go should we do it on merit then?
Do you think we should do the MVP on merit?
You know that, Crane? That's why they'll never give
you a vote. That's why they'll never give
you a vote. They'll never give me a vote
because I'll do it on. I'll give.
The MBA on Patriots fan. You poor guys, I'm not a
probably think you probably think I have a vote.
You might think I have a vote because I.
Have AI kind of do think you have a vote.
Secretly, I think you might. Heisman, I might have a vote.
No, it's 50 voters. What's your case for Stafford?
The Patriots played the easiest schedule of the last 25 years.
I mean, it was a joke every week.
I don't under How does it matter that they played the the Browns
offense? What does that matter for May's
Stafford? It definitely matters.
It matters.
How do they not go undefeated? It doesn't matter.
I mean if you're trying. To if you're.
Trying to say, oh, the difference between the Patriots
getting the two seed and the Rams not getting they're winning
their own division and and being a five seed and being on the
road in the playoffs. I'm trying to mitigate a
ridiculous concept of giving the five seed the MVP and I'm using
the schedule against May there. That's the shirt.
OK. Oh, come on.
What I'm going? To give the five seed the MVP
because. Normally the five seed doesn't
get the MVP. That's not.
No, this is. This is the most this is the
most like ridiculous argument, normally every other argument.
The MVP comes from like, oh, like, I'm sorry.
All decides to give the Panthers a home playoff game, so we can't
give Stafford the why? Don't we give it to Dak?
Why don't we give it to Dak Dak? They won 12 games.
They didn't.
Make the playoffs. Dak had a great year.
Let's give it to Dak. What this is a, this is a what?
A start to 2026. Well, I'm excited to be in such
company here. And Jacob, you are too.
The Rams got anointed as the best team.
They're great in DVOA and stuff and like.
I was going to say they they got, they didn't get anointed.
They are the best. They are number.
They're number. Are they great?
So they play, so they they have a buy this week then.
Are they favored In the Super Bowl Against New England?
Yes, they would be favored. In the Super Bowl against New
England, No, they would be favored.
They would. You know, you're right.
They would be. They would be.
Because we're all friends. And keep in mind, keep in mind
team. They're just the quarterbacks.
They're just may, man. They're may.
The whole team's may OK. Well, rousing start the the
player what if? Chardonnay.
What if Chardonnay never recovered that fumble in the end
zone then? Haven't noted that.
Oh, sorry, what? Well if Charbonnay never
randomly recovers that two point conversion in the end zone after
the whistle, then the Rams are the one seed.
Yeah, and if Stafford doesn't meltdown against the Falcons,
they might be the one seed, too. Oh my God.
Well, I think we, we were, we were happy.
We were happy to see that meltdown against the.
Falcons. A lot of the people on this
program had May as the highest owed quarterback in FFPC Playoff
Challenge ownership yesterday, and it wasn't Pat.
So Jacob, you mentioned, of course everybody is saying it
like you said. That's because I'm trying to
stay objective, Jacob. That's me.
That's me not doing the. Well, you sound very objective
this morning. Yeah, really.
Playoffs. I'm so tired.
You know what, maybe we should just give a home to proactively
the MVP because the chief it's. Such a weak argument that's not
sleepy weak past defenses. And if you want to, if you want
to go to the weak schedule arguments, let's talk about
who's the two season, who's the five?
Like if you just want to do it on the merit of the stats may
blow Stafford away. So you have to go to the stupid
arguments of like, well, actually the offenses they faced
were very weak. Who gives a shit?
I don't care. Right to the mocking voice.
It's getting worse. It's getting worse.
That is not sleeping. I can't get my question in.
Don't wake me up at 7:00 if you don't want me to yell, OK?
Well, what? Are my idea.
This is early for me. I don't yell at 10. 10 is early
for me. Let.
Me yell at 10. There's one guy here who's
already back from the gym. It's not me even though I'm in
the latest time zone. I'll try again.
So not only is it wide open, but you guys are probably drafting
underdog teams with Baltimore and Tampa Bay mixed in.
And even those teams were a little bit more sexy for builds.
And now they're out. We were stuck with Pittsburgh
and Carolina, to put it that way.
So what, Jacob, like what, what are you seeing is it, does that
make it easier maybe because those are easier fades?
Or is it, you know, you have Baltimore?
Do you have Baltimore and Tampa teams already?
Honestly, like I had this probably the lowest volume that
I've been drafting in a while. So I don't have a ton of dead
stuff. I had, I had dabbled in some
Baltimore stuff that's dead now. I hadn't been taking any Tampa
just because my, I think Tampa sucks.
So I I hadn't been bothering with Tampa Carolina.
I just feel like you're hoping for one round.
But I, I thought Baltimore had like some chance and there was
some drafts where you could take like big dog and stuff like
really, really late. So yeah, it's we'll, we'll see
how it goes. I mean, this is this has been
the craziest year, whether we're talking underdog, whether we're
talking any of these contests like where there just isn't
really that massively prohibitive favorite team.
Where like every other year it feels like there's like a team
where you know, you're picking at the turn and you're getting
the 3rd or the 4th player from the 49ers a couple years ago or
the Chiefs one year. Whereas whereas this year you,
you really do get to choose your own adventure kind of wherever
you go. It's made of super fun.
And I think it's it's the most fun year I can recall doing
playoff contest because every you can make a a very realistic
case for basically any team in the AFC and you know, any team,
probably just the Rams, I guess the NFC right back.
What about the Rams? They're the only choice.
I I I said that you can win games for any theme in the AFC,
but the NFCI Guess it's just going to be the Rams.
Yeah, no, I mean, I think it's wide.
It's it's super wide open. Like obviously you can build
through the Rams on on the NFC side if you get the one seed,
but the Rams are tough to build with.
You know, if you don't have the the one seed, the one Rams in
the one seed. Ridiculous.
The the one O 1 you can build with the Rams but I mean.
Are we, are we kind of poisoned actually in our brain on the
puka projection though, thinking like, Oh well, you can never win
without puka, but like, couldn't Adams in the Super Bowl just
like pretty easily outscore puka just randomly?
I guess, but like to to to Jacob's point, like I don't
think the Rams are some, you know, juggernaut team that's
going to going to storm through the NFC like they they're going
to be playing on the road probably the whole way.
I mean, something really weird would need to happen for them
not to. That would be the Seahawks.
That would be the Niners or the Niners winning.
That would just. The Niners would need to win two
games. Or the Packers would need to win
two games, so. The Niners or they either win
1-2 games. The next slide has the Super
Bowl, the underdog Super Bowl. Their defense is.
Right by their Super Bowl odds, if you want to as much as I'd.
Likely to just just so people know, Jack, Zach forgot to put
the put me on here, but I was -250 So let's go to.
That is kind of the technical host, right?
Because all the slide work and everything we really have to, we
rely on Pat. It's true.
To be able to. I'm an undercover host.
I'm a secret host. Show the face of the operation.
Look at the Rams as the third best odds by this to win it all.
But to Davis's puka point, what do you What do we think?
Yeah, I mean, it's not like, and it's tough because if you go, if
you get to Rams Super Bowls and you have just Adams, let's say
if you have Kyron and Adams, then yeah, maybe.
But you probably, you probably need to pick the AFC right on
the other side. Well, I mean, I think that goes
like if you're doing the Rams thing without puka, you better
have an AFC team that is prepared to score a lot of
points. You better have.
You better have a player. Doesn't have to be a wide
receiver, Could be a running back, could be a tight end who
can be the highest scoring player in the Super.
Bowl Jags are kind of interesting.
You could build. You could build that Well, I
mean Adams, Kyron, ETN. And going to Jags to to look in
in. You got to hand it to chess,
Liam, that territory. Like if the Jags just get their
shit blown off by the bills and they like can't stop James Cook
and Josh Allen is the Superman and Trevor Lawrence throws like
a back breaking interception. At some point, it's not like any
of us are going to be like, well, there was just no possible
way to see that coming. And I say this.
I say this as someone who is drafting the shit out of the
Jags, but I'm acknowledging that it's very thin.
Well, the it's not like the Jag. I think that game is like a 5050
game and it's just that the, there's certain people named
Liam who are acting like the like it's like Rams Panthers,
where where it's like it's just like this is just a foregone
conclusion. Like the Bills are in the second
round. It would be a catastrophic.
I, I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills won that game.
Of course not. I might even 1 1/2.
Yeah. But yeah, I mean it, it wasn't
happening. I think it's pretty accurate.
It could go either. Way the Jags might shoot
themselves in the foot a little bit with the potent offense,
because the thing with the Bills is.
So this is such a good point. They've lost like, OK, so they
lost 23 to 20 to the Patriots. You only put up 20 points on the
Patriots. They lost 24 to 14 to the
Falcons. They lost 30 to 13 to the
Dolphins, which is weird, but weird stuff does happen.
And then they lost 23 to 19 to the Texans.
So if you score like 25 points, bills, you you only have one
loss this year. Oh, they also lost 13 to 12 to
this to the Eagles. Their their wins.
They're normally like putting up a bunch of points.
And if if you if you watch the games, it's like the bucks game
would be an example where the the bucks are like pushing the
crap out of the bills. The bills finally like unlock
that level where Josh Allen's in super Superman mode.
They put up 44 points when 4432 like.
You do not pass game very similar pass.
Game Second pass. Game Bills have to try.
Yeah, 3531 they they yeah, the Bills.
The Bills looked awesome in that game.
They beat the Bengals the week before, scored 39 points there
that was a that was a shootout like look if.
You I don't, I don't trust the Bills.
I I don't trust their offense. I don't think Cook is that
special. The the Jaguars do not give up
yards on the ground unless Allen.
Doesn't. They don't.
I don't. Pass, they got it.
I actually trusting mode. I trust all these people.
I trust James Cook, I trust Josh Allen.
I actually think the defense in the postseason, like they're the
fact that they can't stop the run just doesn't matter near as
much. The person that I do not trust
is Joe Brady. Joe Brady is waiting to to get a
little bit of momentum on offense.
You know, it's the third quarter and he's like, you know what I'm
going to do end around Khalil Shakur.
Khalil Shakur flips it to Tyrell Shavers.
Shavers flips it back to Allen for a seam route to Dawson Knox.
That's like, that is what Joe Brady.
Is for 16 yards. Yeah, Joe, Joe Brady, I mean,
Shoaib, I assume you were in a similar position to me where
like Matt Maggie is getting head coaching interviews right now.
I assume you were like, come on, Joe Brady, you can do it, buddy.
Titans called Joe Brady. Browns called Joe.
Like I assume you were just like you you.
You would drive Joe Brady in the airport nearly as much anymore.
Hey, Like, last year he was like he was turning teams away.
And this year, it seems like. Well, early in the year he was
and I've and I've heard some tape guys like gush over what
he's doing in. Terms of some guys still love
him, I don't care, they're wrong.
They're completely wrong, but they but he's probably doing the
you know, I think they're wrong in the big picture.
I'm sure he's doing some interesting stuff with heavy
personnel or whatever, but like it's it's such a terrible use of
of Josh Allen like to build this offense around this run game.
I'm not begging for him to leave, but they just, it's all
intentional. They don't have the receivers.
They made that decision. They've they've been, you know,
difficult about it. They've dabbled on the waiver
wire plenty of times. Nicole Hartman was somebody that
they talked about as important and then he was cut and he's on
the practice squad and you had MVS and you had Elijah Moore and
all these names. I just don't.
Kincaid might end up being, you know, more about Liam, I guess.
Kincaid might end up being might end up being the closest thing
to a skeleton key in their pass offense.
I think it's a good sign. He played against The Jets.
I mean 10 snaps maybe, but he was active.
Do you think he's not playing like all season?
I think he's maybe peaked at like 55% round participation.
He's not really involved in the run game.
So, you know, I'm sure his snap shares are even lower.
And do you think that's him being injured all year and them
trying to nurse him through the season?
Or is that like because they like Jackson Hawes and Dawson
Knox more in the run game? I think it's 2/3 their identity
that point and then 1/3. He also has been pretty brittle.
But I think they're going into this game and you know, we're
talking about building for a tournament.
This is just one game. It's the kind of game if the
Bills didn't have the the reputation or Allen or these
pieces where, you know, like Jacob, you've got a one point
favorite that would play four games in a tournament, that
might be a better bet because they're not even the favorites
that the Patriots or the Texans are this week.
So I mean, the the Bills should be pretty popular, I would think
in these at least. But yeah, I I really don't trust
their offense. And defensively, there's always
injuries. You know, Max Hairston, their
first round pick, plays late against The Jets because it's
kind of I'll keep this short because it's not so much a
fantasy point. But remember the the Bills
signed Darius Slay in the middle of the season after he was cut
by Pittsburgh. And to make room for him, they
cut a a depth DB named Jamarcus Ingram.
Then Slay says, I'm not going to Buffalo.
And maybe it was Atlanta who claimed Ingram.
So they're kind of short a guy ever since then.
And now they're in this game where they're winning by 100 and
Hairston is on the field and he gets hurt.
He's already been ruled out for this game against Jacksonville,
their first round pick. So not not great.
I mean, there's just it's been a a trying year for them.
They won 12 games again. Listen, I am rooting against the
Bills and I hope they get beat very, very badly.
But it is out of love for the Bills organization ultimately
because I want I want them. I want this whole coaching staff
gone. This is this is your chance.
They you're never cleaning house with Josh Allen unless you get
embarrassed by Trevor Lawrence on the road in the playoffs,
right? That's how.
That's how maybe there's change, do you think?
That's. There's a chance I.
Think it would have to be bad. I think it would have to be a
bad a bad loss this week and that's.
Just the whole coaching staff. They need to get rid of the GM
too. The one the.
GMs got to go too, yeah? Like the one who yells at fans
about how good wide receivers are.
Yeah. Like we got to get well,
everybody. I would say McDermott at
different times, including yesterday, has not so subtly
hinted at some frustration with. Maybe it's the Ingram point.
He talked up Jacoby Myers yesterday when asked about the
Jaguars. And it sounded a little bit like
we could have had him, you know, So I, I think there might be
some tension, maybe for the first time.
The this is actually we haven't talked about in a while, but
this is like why no one talks about maybe the running game is
like this because Josh loves doing dumb things.
I mean, that's exactly why they got to this place.
But this is a this is a cowardly way to play football with Josh
Allen. Like you're first of all, he's
he's cut way down on the interceptions and second of all,
like. Who?
You care like he this dude should have.
If anyone has a license to do some dumb things, it should be
Josh Allen. He's he's the best.
I mean, there should be no argument about the MVP because
the best quarterback in the league is Josh Allen.
You know who else has he should win again.
Like Steph Curry has always had a very high turnover rate.
Like you don't you don't care. Like he throws some crazy
passes. You go out of bounds.
Like it's like you just you, you just live with it.
Like if you have the the guy who's extremely special, like,
yeah, like I I get that he probably has thrown more tilting
interceptions than like most of the other mega elite Hall of
Fame quarterbacks, I guess, but like, it's super worth it.
It's like it's. So worth it.
Like it's way worth it. Yeah.
Like he. So I I've never understood
getting tilted over that. He's been great in the playoffs
too, over the years. Yeah, isn't.
It he's been awesome. 100% he has it.
Let. Me.
Let me tell you, it's like. They're literally holding him
back like he he could have had a much stronger season if they if
they just featured him. It's crazy.
Yeah, I, I, I'd like to, I'd like to pause at something here,
which is that the, the best team to be drafting right now in the
whatever form of playoff stuff you're doing.
I mean, it's just simply the Philadelphia Eagles, right?
So it's just like, it's just like the Eagles got to rest
their starters last week. They're probably going to get
Lane Johnson back. You know, exactly who's getting
the ball. Five guys get the ball.
Everyone else is purely complimentary.
I mean, maybe you could take Dotson or Bixby with your final
pick in these drafts or whatever, but you can with a
pretty reliable consistency get Barkley, A.J.
Brown, Hertz, Devonta and Goddard.
You can build an AFC stuff on top of that.
You could do, you can take Woody Marks and Jayden Higgins and
Parker Washington and Bretton, Strange and Ramondre sometimes
in in that group. And I know we all like all
famously, Jalen Hurd's not a top 25 quarterback.
I mean, this is a team to me. You know what you know.
What happens that he complete in that game against the Bills in
the second-half? The answer's one.
Didn't they? Didn't they just that win over
the Bills? Is that what do you mean?
Yeah. Yeah.
Oh, and Jalen Hurst was was the guy who led them to that win.
That was really a Jalen. I mean, I don't think you get, I
don't think you get. I don't.
I don't believe I would have to check.
I don't think you get fucking style points in playoff best
ball. I don't.
I got to do the whole I hope.
It's our whole game, might as well be called style points.
What are you talking about? I we're.
Great scoring last call this year we did that.
I hold two thoughts in my head at the same time.
I think Jalen Hurts is a deplorable quarterback and I
also draft more of the Eagles than any other team in playoff
basketball contest. Yeah, because yeah.
I mean, just the Jalen Hurts thing, people making fun of me
for using QB wins on Hertz now, which is fair, but it is funny
that the take on Hertz is so outrageous.
I mean, the one thing with Hertz is he probably runs more in the
playoffs. I think there's like probably an
extra gear to what he could be doing both his.
Yeah, and he had a week off for like his, his 'cause he's had
like a wonky knee for like the last two years.
So he's had a week. He he of the quarterbacks
playing in round one. Is he?
I guess Josh got a week off. Herbert got a week off.
Who else? That's it, right?
Oh, Oh well, I guess his opponent, so never mind.
This is actually a bad point because the Packers took the
week off, too. That's right.
Yeah. But the Packers, they're not
playing the Packers. They're playing the 40.
Niners, right, But the, the and the 49ers did not get the week
off. And that's the crucial thing for
the Eagles is that they they think they lucked out schedule
wise. They get the Niners this week,
which is scary ish, but not really.
That's the writing for the Eagles, because to me, the
scarier team for the Eagles team, the good defense because
their offense is pretty wonky, but like they're they're going
to their office is going to be fine against the 49ers.
They can do their they can do their thing that is limited.
I don't think the 49ers have anything to do to stop them.
They've had even more linebacker injuries last week.
I like them in that game. And then they get probably the
Bears, which is a really, I mean, I know they lost the bears
already this year, so they certainly could again, but like.
Oh man, we are. We are so.
Close to some Caleb Williams apologies on this program.
I just like I can. I can just taste it.
But I would I would that 4th. Quarter when they're when
they're downtown in the 4th at home to the Packers, you better
hope that fourth quarter goes your way.
But yeah, I think avoiding, avoiding the Rams, avoiding the
Seahawks, I think it's a pretty, pretty nice draw for their for
the Philadelphia Eagles to get at least to the third round.
And then I mean, even if even if the Packers win, they get the
Rams. I mean, come on.
Yeah, yeah, here we go again. And as David said.
And, and, and crucially for the Philadelphia Eagles, if they do
get the Rams, they get them in the third round and they get
them at home. And like, it could be horrible
weather in that game, right? And last year?
Well, they might. They might face them on the
second rounds. I mean, for real, I think
Packers are very live. That's right.
Yeah, they might. Yeah, Davis made the point the
the fundamental point of Philadelphia is there's no
mystery about who's getting the ball.
A lot of these teams, you could really just get to the FFPC, you
go all over the place, Jacksonville, Houston, teams
like that. Not.
Philly. I have some dead Philly teams
though, because someone in the in the chat earlier was making
the point that like, yes, it's kind of concentrated, but they
don't score as many fancy points as they probably should.
They they, I mean. Not not as a five man, not as a
five man unit, but one of them in a given game will be.
One of them. Yeah.
But when you need one of six, you need to get out of a putt.
So I've got you. You need to draft.
Well, you need to draft well, that's well, I think it's why
you take so many Eagles teams is you should be taking a lot of
Eagles teams and then taking them with a like a real variety
of of take them, take them with Packers, take them with bears,
take them with Chargers, take them with like even do the
Steelers just like because I think advancing those five man,
those five man units are so big. As much as the Eagles normally
don't exactly scream incredible fantasy offense, they would get
probably the two worst defenses or or possibly the chat has
reminded me of the. Packers, I have this plan I want
to take. The Yeah, the The chat has
reminded me that the Packers are apparently favored against the
Bears. That seems crazy to me.
They were like they're. Now what's really with?
No, you're right. You're.
Right, you're right, 1 1/2. I think the Packers are a better
team than the Bears. You know, you, you know, you
know. Oh, is Caleb Williams an
apology? Davis Maddock is is the sports
book community because I Caleb Williams believer I'm betting on
the Bears this weekend. So, you know, maybe that's.
Just because that's just because you, it's just because you hate
the Packers. That's.
Neither here nor there, but I think that the as much as you
don't like the Eagles offense, as much as I don't like the
Eagles offense. In fact they get 49ers defense
and then quite plausibly Bears defense.
You can't ask for a better two defenses to play in the in the
playoffs in terms of of ability for a mid offense to score a
bunch of points than than 49ers Bears.
What's happening with the one seeds in these drafts I.
Mean the Broncos are like, no, they're like radioactive.
The Broncos system, yeah, No one believes in them.
They are the No one believes in this team.
No one believes in the Denver Broncos.
I mean, I think an interesting thing is that Kenneth Walker
goes ahead of sharps every time. And there's, I mean, I don't
know, I have to go look it up. Who scored more fantasy points
in the regular season? I I do not know the answer.
To this it was Walker, but it was by like .04 or something
like that. Like it was like they were like,
right? It was a rounding error.
Yeah, yeah. I I mean, and frankly, they are
the the Broncos and the Seahawks are the exact profile of teams
that one, we are conditioned to not believe in and two, have
these historic flame outs in the post season, right, where the
quarterback play is fine, but it's all based on a defense.
And I mean, we are all smart enough about football to know
that, yeah, defenses win championships and it's nice to
have a good defense, but sometimes quarterbacks and
opposing offenses just can just put you in a position where it's
not up to you, you know, like. You know.
And Nix, Nix or Darnold have to make a play, actually, Gretsch
wrote. Really.
I'm actually really fucking tilted at Ben Gretsch, so I I
shouldn't even be complimenting him right now.
But he wrote, he wrote a really, we can get into why I'm tilted,
congratulator, But he wrote this really good explanation of why
specifically like 4 quarterbacks like Darnold and Nicks that EPA
is not the right way to view them because they spend so many
of their plays specifically trying to keep the ball out of
the hands of their quarterback. Like the you will see it'll.
Be you can account for this by using EPA per game.
That's why I use EPA per game. Not really, Not really, because
only to a point, because basically what will happen is
many of the plays where, and this was Gretch's example,
Mahomes, Andy Reid would go, all right, Pat, well, we're in a
hole and I trust you. I think you can dig us out of
us. So it's second and 18 and then
third and 11 and I'm calling 2 passing plays in which I expect
you to try and throw the ball past the sticks.
Clint Kubiak and Mike McDonald. But if he.
Completes those. Those are huge EPA gains.
Well, he didn't do very many completing of those.
Well, he didn't this year, but. That's actually how Mahomes
racks up a ton of EPA per game 'cause he.
Gets but he has put he has put in more situations where the
expectation would be to get a negative EPA, whereas the
Seahawks get in the third and 17 and they just call the half back
draw. They're like, we're not even
going to give our quarterback a chance to make the mistake here.
The Broncos do the same thing. That's true.
And, and, and so people like us who tend to view things more
from a, a spreadsheet sort of sense actually have kind of an
inflated opinion of what guys like Darnold, guys like Nicks
are doing. This used to be this actually
used to be a, a Purdy thing. I I no longer think this applies
to him at all. It was a Jimmy G thing.
I don't think it was really ever a Purdy thing.
It was really always played better than Jimmy G really.
Yeah, yeah. This, I guess this used to be a
Jimmy G thing. And, and frankly, I think that
Darnold is probably a lot like Jimmy G, where it's like, yeah,
the Seahawks could easily find themselves in a Super Bowl
because Kubiak's a genius. The defense is really good.
But if they're down 10 points in the NFC Conference championship
to the Eagles, are you feeling really good about that spot?
I don't. I don't think you are.
The thing with Darnold where I would say he's not Jimmy G
really at all, is that what Darnold to me is, is a maniac
who's being kept within a very. Within he he's he's he's he's
quarterbacking with with like a strange jacket on.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like he's got, he's got the
straight jacket on and he's like, he's like, I'm chill, man.
Just let me just Arnold is a A Let me be clear, Darnold is a
way greater thrower of the football.
Than a way greater throwers of the football.
Yeah, he just, I, I guess at the end your ultimate criticism of
Darnold would be that he is just either he trusts.
Would you, would you say it's a he trusts his arm too much or
that he is just a split second late or, or just has problems
processing? I mean, I'm not.
I think he probably. Has problems, all the above.
He's not. He's not a great processor.
His arm is really good though I think.
The arm is his arm is phenomenal like his Yeah, that's like his
upside is is I. I believe Darnold had 21
turnovers. He can panic.
Yeah, he panics all the time, but if you if you if you put me
down 10 as the Seahawks, I think I'm live with Darnold in a way
that like I really don't. I mean, Nix has come back and
everything. So I maybe this is unfair to
Nix, but I'd rather. Or I'd suggest that Pat use the
RAM game. I mean you could use.
Use. I'm not.
Actually, I can use the Rams game.
I think I feel better about the Broncos down 10.
I feel better about the Bronx. I see.
I feel better about the Broncos down 10 because they have more
guys who can like, make a play. The Seahawks have one guy who
can make a play, and it's JSN. Yeah, my my thing with.
With Denver's down 10, they should just end the game.
Is it like you, you don't, you don't get like double losses if
you, if you lose by, you know, 20 points or whatever, if
you're, if you're down 10 and then you, you go down another 10
cuz Darnold throws a pick 6 like right.
It's still just the one loss. I think that's he's more likely
to crater, but I also think he's more likely to make some
incredible plays and win the game for you compared to.
Bonus I I agree with that. I'm underrating Nix a little
bit. I think Nix is actually more
maybe not even underrating just I think the rap on him coming
out of college was just not correct.
Like the rap on him coming out of college was he was going to
be this dink and dunk artist, but I, I, that's how he's.
He's kind of like a Caleb, like he's trying to make plays and
stuff. Yeah.
And like, I don't know that I think he's that good, but like I
actually think Denver and we we we saw this, we saw this with
Peyton when Russ was there too, actually.
But we've certainly seen in the last couple years with Nick,
especially this year, they can be good in comeback mode.
I think the biggest offense, I think the biggest issue that
Denver has offensively is that there's just it's like the
opposite of the Seattle offense. Seattle I worry about in
comeback mode because I think that for their offense, the hum,
so much of it is built off of the run.
Yeah. Then they can do the play
action. They get favorable looks to
throw. They get simplified looks where
it's just one, two read, one or two reads.
The Arnold gets to use his arm talent to hit it.
And when you have to go into drop back mode, things get more
cluttered with the Broncos. It feels like watching them.
There's like no cohesion between their running game and their
pass game. They have this like heavy
personnel, like power run game that they do.
But then when they want to pass, they like spread it all out and
it feels like everything looks very different.
And if anything, it's like they get more disjointed when they're
in these neutral game scripts and they're trying to keep
balance between run and pass and they don't have any of the same
look to it. Whereas when they just have to
go drop back mode, it feels like they actually have like more
cohesiveness in their offense because then they just read it
out and they just go and like mix his arm count.
He can make throws. He's a bit of an arsonist too.
But I, I think that they can, I, I think that they're a little
bit more dangerous from behind than than than Your guys are
giving them a bit of credit. For.
I I do think they have a similar thing to Darnold though, where
like Knicks has a lot of implosion upside.
Yeah. That that, that Darnold has,
which is why of these like really good defense, I don't
really trust their offense teams.
The one I probably like the most is Houston just because I I I
don't trust their offense to win them games, but I do trust
Stroud not to lose them games. So I feel like if their defense
just shows up and plays great like he canmore traditionally
manage the game. Whereas I could see a scenario
in which the Seattle or Broncos defense plays really well and
Darnold or Nicks just straight loses them the game.
Yeah, I mean if, if Darnold if if Darnold and Stroud take care
of the ball like 0 turnovers for them over the next month, a
Texan Seahawks Super Bowl is like so on the cards.
They're the best 2 defenses. I mean the best 2 defenses could
easily get to the Super Bowl so. Maybe it's that kind of year.
If you wanna, if you wanna defend Knicks a little bit as
well. And you know, someone pointed
out in the chat he'd had an incredible comeback this this
very year, which is fair. But also, I think it's probably
unfair to put him in the same bucket as Darnold's where, you
know, it's like we're hiding the quarterback and then using the
passing game in these like highly curated situations.
The passing game's almost here to accentuate the running game a
little bit, which is obviously like not the most efficient way
to design an offense and in some ways really helps the
quarterback who's especially if you're prone to making mistakes
like Darnold. But Knicks, I mean, the the
Broncos have a 2% pass rate of expected.
They're 5% on 1st and 10. They're 5% over expected on 3rd
and three plus. So the rbsdm.com doesn't have
like third and 10 plus here, but I don't I don't no, they pass.
There's not a lot of evidence that they're like, you know,
that they're only kind of limiting him to specific
situations. They actually on 3rd and 1:00
and 1:00 and 2:00, they have a -, 7% password of expected.
So they tend to run in 3rd and short quite a bit.
So he's he's being asked. They also run very heavily in in
2nd and short, which is kind of a a spot where you can take
shots. So it doesn't really look like
the numbers support Bo Nicks being like, you know, one of
these, one of these guys who isn't asked to play quarterback
as much as you know, as real quarterbacks.
And there is some of that with Darnold where he he's doing a
lot of play action stuff. They run the ball and and the
offense overall could be more efficient if they were more
confident in the quarterback to be kind of the engine.
This Denver comeback was the Giants game.
The Giants, Yeah. Well, amazing.
Yeah, the thing with Nicks, what what I think really is his issue
is like his success rate has been awful this year.
Not, not awful is unfair, but like it, it's been much worse
than you'd expect given how efficient he's been.
He's been kind of in the, in the range of like, you know, Aaron
Rodgers and Caleb Williams and some of these guys who just like
play to play are not particularly consistent, but
then they do have really high moments, particularly Williams
and Nick's more than Rogers. But yeah, the success rate is,
is I think where he kind of falls down if you, you need him
to consistently make plays, you know, and I think that's, it's
weird that he has this marriage with, with Peyton because that's
what Peyton wants. He's more of like a playmaker
type. And Peyton's more of like, just
run the offense and we'll, we'll succeed.
Pat taking liberties, The private slash actual host of the
show on the ribbon. Drake May for MVP for audio
consumers. The BBM 7 odds would have been
hilarious there, but don't, don't bother yourself to type
all that in at this late stage. Anyway, we we have two more
slides with the playoff field in mind.
And we've talked about a couple of these teams already.
I mean, San Francisco is, if you're on Philadelphia so hard,
it's gonna be tough to be on San Francisco, I guess.
Green Bay above Chicago. And no, because.
You don't draft them together. You don't draft them together.
Yeah. Right, because you can.
You can get the five man stacks of actually each team pretty
efficiently. Like I, I would guess like a
huge chunk of My Portfolio is the 5 Eagles, the five 49ers
mixed in with Jags mixed in with Patriots mixed in with whatever.
Just trying to advance because in round one, obviously the five
man stack, your expectation is pretty low, but in round two,
having a full starting line up with the team that just
advanced, it's it. Even if those are your only
guys, even if everyone else on your roster just died, you know,
you had the lad Mcconkey who just died in the wild card
round. You're like, why have a full
starting line up from this team? Assume they win, you know, 24 to
17 or whatever. Well, you probably got a decent
amount of fantasy points from them and then you also then port
over the starting line up to the conference championship.
You put a lot of the times. I mean, Corinne, you guys have
actually like up probably done the research on this, like how
many teams on average in the gauntlet in the conference
championship round can feel the five man starting roster.
That's a sacrilegious question. I'm I'm really not sure.
I, I would I would bet it's, I would bet it's it's much lower
than you would like. I would bet it is exceedingly
rare for the entirety of the 10 man pod to be able to do it all.
Almost impossible for the entire 10 man pod to be able to do it.
I would say I, I mean, I doubt it's almost impossible because
you, you know. It depends on the IT depends.
It depends on the Super Bowl. It it depends on the Super Bowl,
it depends on if the one sees each lose.
Is interactional. Round it depends on how many
Packers the side chick needs. Dude, I was on, I was on Davis's
stream and we're going through and it's just capped trying to
make us take Packers, not stop the Packers.
I think that, you know, we're like, we don't have some kind of
Packers. You know, you know who needs to
apologize? We're literally using the.
Market success of the pack. The sidekick needs to apologize
to Gala Williams. You know what we're?
Getting bears now. Because you guys moved, you guys
must have adjusted Burden's projection for more fantasy
points because I'm now, I'm now starting to get.
Burden Davis understands. Yeah, I'm.
Now starting to get Burden and Swift instead of Jacobs and
Watson. Yeah.
But it's also that the the Packers are, I guess the Packers
have come down a little bit, but the Bears have moved up in terms
of where the, you know, the market is on them.
So that's that's helped as well. The Bears are just, I mean,
objectively the Bears are better picks and playoff contest than
they were a month ago. So we're taking them more now.
Yeah. See, if we get to Loveland, we
get around to the FFPC build where it's only one player per
team. I I love Loveland in FFPC cuz I
think that I I. Loveland's going to be big
chalk. That's what that's what I was.
That's what I was thinking. I think so, but I still think,
well, we'll get into it. I think he's going to be big
chalk and, and it's the type of I it's, it's not when I went
into making the ownership projections, it's not what I was
expecting to like. It wasn't like top of my mind
like, oh, let me let me get the Loveland projection up.
But it was like once I started doing it, there just isn't a
tight end who's an easy click. There's not a single tight end
who's an easy click. And then you get to Loveland and
it's like, well, this is an easy click.
Let me just get Loveland in here.
I, I, you know, I haven't the highest owned tight end too.
I don't, I don't think I had them quite as high as you did,
but I I think I have more people going to Kittle.
I do not think people go to Kittle at the CMC.
I mean, the CMCMVP chatter is starting to to come back up.
Like I don't think people want to avoid CMC.
And you also have the CMC Barkley thing where you're like,
I have one of these two guys have AI, have an elite running
back advancing no matter what. That's that's super comfy.
Some people obviously play Kittle because he's an awesome
play, but I don't think it'll be like a ton.
Yep. Hunter, Henry.
Kincaid Gadsden. I think you get I think you get
to Henry because if you don't want to do Drake May, I'm trying
to if I'm thinking if I'm putting myself in the mind of
FPC boomer people usually start with the quarterback first.
So it's like, let's this person doesn't believe in the Patriots.
You're not clicking Drake May. And then they're like, well,
what do I do with the Patriots? And you're like, well, I could
do Hendo or I could do Stevens. I don't want to guess the
running back. And then it's like I could do
dig. You don't.
Have to guess the running back. If you're a boomer, you know who
the running back is. It's for Madre Stevens, dude.
Jacob's right. You're right, Henry.
Henry's like a default choice unless you soft pay.
Them I can see he will get into Henry, but yeah, I interesting.
Henry hasn't been that good this year.
Like he's been fine. He's been fine.
And it And it's not like he finished.
Like buffing was. Crushing down the stretch.
Yeah, Yeah. That's a good point.
You want to jump to it. Yeah.
Let's just do this. We've covered these other teams
already. Last call for later.
Oh, use my screen. Oh, your screen.
I was like, what? What?
It's not one of the slides.
Got it. If you can do that, the FFPC
Playoff Challenge $200 entry, you want to sort of take turns.
It's 12 players and there's four of us so.
Well, look, I, I, I'll fully admit I've lost objectivity on
on Drake May, I actually had him lower than my my ability to read
the market, you know, is not, is not going to be great on May.
I had him lower than Jacob did, in part because I'm not sure.
But you could easily be right. Don't.
I'm not the market. No, I know, but I just I don't
feel confident. It's just interesting that you
were higher, right? Like I'm sort of I'm like trying
to feel it out because I would prefer to play Drake May, but
also don't think that the Patriot.
Part of my MVP argument for May is that I don't think the
Patriots are that strong of a team.
Their defense isn't that great. It's not like they have great
weapons. Their offensive line is below
average. It's better with Campbell back,
but still not very good. So they could easily lose early.
So you have to be comfortable with May winning in two, you
know, being the optimal quarterback probably in two
games, which I think he could be, but I don't think he's a
jam. But I don't think Allen's a jam
either. No one is.
But it's the reason why probably.
One of those two guys. The reason why I had May as my
highest ownership quarterback, I had all of them a little bit
flatter than you did, but the reason I let it out on May over
Allen was just one. Patriots are are a much heavier
favorite this week than the Bills are.
Bills are more in a toss up game.
I I, I would guess people feel pretty comfortable with the
Patriots. Yeah, better Super Bowl odds as
well. Yeah, better Super Bowl odds as
well. Yeah.
And, and mostly I think if you, if you feel roughly similarly
even about the odds of the Bills of the Patriots to get to the
Super Bowl, at least with the Bills, if you don't click Allen,
there's a really, really easy click there.
You just go James Cook and everybody feels great about
James Cook. If you don't click May, it just
becomes difficult because I don't think people want to play
the path to lose round one to the Chargers unless you're Liam.
But like most people won't want to do that.
So then you kind of, and if you think and if you don't pick the
quarterback, then that means you have to pick one of the other
guys. I don't know who people would
feel good about. Like it's Hendo, it's Stevenson,
it's Diggs, it's Hunter Henry. Like you're kind of just picking
1. And I don't think people love
the feeling of just picking one of four skill players and hoping
to pick the right one. Well, you don't have to do it.
You could also just take the kicker or leave them off.
Well, the three then. You're picking them to lose
round one. Yeah, well, I mean 3 1/2 though.
I mean it's not the the the Chargers are a shorter underdog
than the Niners. That means, though, that you're,
you're taking a Steeler or a Panther, which most people
aren't going to do, or you're taking a like potentially both
sides from the, from the Packers and Bears because you're
probably, well, I guess you're, you're playing a Charger.
So that that frees up a fade. So maybe that's that's the pivot
is that you actually do play a Charger.
Right. Yeah.
And there I think. That tells a lot to New England.
Fade. That's a good point.
A couple of interesting, maybe there is more.
New England fade than I was thinking. 46 1/2, by the way, is
not a small number really for a January game in Foxborough. 46
1/2 pretty healthy. Well, you want to go like man by
man here and just fill the fill the roster out.
What I'm kind of curious on the bears stuff like if what do?
You. Do I?
I think you do. I think you do, you do
Lovelander Burden and I think you, you take Loveland obviously
for the FFPC boost. I think you take Burden for, I
mean burden probably. But do you think people will go
to burden come over Loveland's in in tight end premium at a
high rate or is it? My guess is in the flex you
probably get Bird, you probably get Loveland over burden like 3
to one that that in terms of total ownership that that's my
that's my guess. What what did you have the Bears
that pack I I had Loveland the highest, but Swift pretty close.
We have. Let me see.
Well, should we? Should we should we make the
1:00? Pick that we're.
All going to I've got them like 4 times higher than burden and.
I've swift below burden. You don't need the running back
at all, but people like the running back on this side.
I guess they do like. There were maybe.
Maybe I have that off. Maybe.
No, OK, I'll, I'll, I'll. Well, we can.
We can. Just sort of try to fill these.
All I'll have them super high and most I mostly have it going
to Loveland. We can either try to fill these
all like by consensus. One by one that might be harder
or then just sort of like take turns filling slots.
But if you want to start with Loveland, I've got no problem
with that. Well, I was going to say first
we can, we can put Loveland in, but I was going.
To say first thing we can put in is we we'll all agree on this
one. The Texans defense, you just,
you just giga eat that. No, no, what, why?
Why would you do that? You're good, then you're going
to pick a stealer. No, the Texans defense will just
be their highest scoring. Guy two games, yeah.
OK, so this is this is the funny.
Part is what I did. This what I did.
In my this is the boomer OP though the the first thing that
I the. First thing that I said to
myself is I did the. Sheet and Davis, you're going to
be offended by this and I do mean it is.
I was like, how many fucking slap Dicks are going to go hard
fade Steelers and the Texans defense because that's so
obviously stupid. But I think that people are
going to do it anyways because they're just going to be like
that's his D bro and like I can't take a stealer.
And so like, yeah, you win. You win 10, seven and then you
and then you. Lose you lose 7 to 10.
So you're you're defending this. Do you think this is rational I.
Don't you? You're going to take.
You're going to. Take Nico, I guess.
I guess then it becomes what other team do you want to spade?
Schultz is also in play or you just.
Take or you. Just take a stealer if you if
you want you. Can take Kenny Gainwell.
I don't, I don't like the Houston defense play because.
Rogers is going to throw every pass in one second, doesn't get
intercepted. I don't know if there are really
points there, even if it's a low scoring game.
No, that's fair. Then it's unironic.
Unironic. That's fair if they're going to
be. Chalky, I'd especially want to
not do it. OK, Yeah, I don't know that.
They're going to be super chalky to.
Not go. Double fade in the.
Same game so so my my thing was. When I was doing the ownership
stuff, which we're going to be talking through on this channel
for, you know, the whole week, we're I think we're doing the
boom opto tonight and then we're going to reveal the ownership.
So I'm so I'm going to be tweaking before before the
official reveal. There's going to be some tweaks.
But my first run I only had Houston D at like 13% because
typically OK, so if you just go down.
To odds to make. The Super Bowl, I went to
FanDuel, I took the odds of winning the conference.
So because I don't really care who wins the Super Bowl, I just
wanted to get to the Super Bowl, right.
So odds to make the Super Bowl, it's Seattle 36, Denver 30, Rams
29, Patriots 19, Philly 19, Houston 18, Buffalo 18.
Sorry, Buffalo's 17 and then Jacksonville 14.
Everyone else is 10% or lower. This is where you and then you
go to like Carolina's one, Pittsburgh's 5.
So the typically we've seen massive fades on the teams like
Carolina and Pittsburgh. And we've, we've seen teams like
the Chargers who are at 8% get faded pretty hard.
We haven't seen teams that have like a close to 20% chance to
make the Super Bowl get like Uber faded.
Maybe this year's different though.
Because then when I went to do the boomer.
Opto, which we're revealing tonight.
Houston D is the obvious boomer. Opto click like.
Just like super, super obvious boomer D So I actually it made
me really second guess where I have the defenses and something
I'm going to try to adjust before tonight because I guess.
Like. What you then have to do is you
you play both sides of the question is to me, do people
play both sides of the the Packers, Bears and the Jags?
Bills fade one of New England or the Chargers fade both of
Pittsburgh and Carolina, meaning soft and hard fades and then
fade Houston via the D Is that going to be kind of the chalk?
I don't think it's going to be. The chalk, but I think it's
going to be more. Popular than it should be.
I mean, I I just think it's I think it's still just bad like
if you if you're picking Houston to win.
So like, I mean, obviously if you want to play Houston D and
you want to play a stealer, that's obviously fine.
I'm saying if you're if you're hard fading the Steelers and
you're playing Houston, DII still think you're really
swimming upstream on that being optimal.
I I like I I know it's possible, but Houston D in two games,
outscoring Nico and Schultz, just I don't know that feels
really thin, especially if we're saying one of those games is a
loss. All right, well, we've got a
week, even if we. Don't like where we end up here.
We can still make changes, but I still think we should go man by
man and make picks and then we'll see, you know, use what
has already been decided in your strategy.
Is that OK? Yeah, sorry, I'm just the reason
I keep derailing it is. I'm trying to get a sense of of
where you guys feel on these players because that's what
that's what I really care about right now because I'm trying to
compile the ownership. I I think any year can be like
this, but the overall. Point this year is just how
there isn't anything obvious. I mean, Allen playing four games
last year is kind of easy or Hertz.
And I think this year the spreads are so low, except for
the RAM game there are. So I think Stafford could even
be interesting. But yeah, I mean, I'm open
almost anything. Can you talk a?
Little bit more about that 'cause that's that's where.
Like Pooka is such a such an obvious click, but I've I've
been wondering if Stafford actually get some, some love.
I mean, you know, he he's probably going to win MVP.
So there's, well, I was, I was talking with him last night
about. You know the match?
Yeah. What do you, what do you say?
He seemed very bullish. Very bullish you were hanging
out with. Dan and and Matt again.
It was just a zoom, but you know, we don't get to see each
other that often. Living so far apart, it's you.
Know all right. Who wants to own the Loveland
call? And we all like it.
Anybody Davis you want I'll. Yeah, I'll take it.
I don't. I don't like it if it's.
Going to be disowned. All right, well, we got to do.
It no Jacob. Jacob.
Think about this in. Terms of how we think about.
The Sims like think about what we've learned about salary cap
DFS over the year is that is that there is a cascading
negative effect the further away you get from what is optimal and
that you don't have to be making pivots at nine of your twelve
line of spots in at that PC to I do love this this this highbrow.
Take from a guy who wants to double fade the Steelers and the
the Texans game. I just think the Texans defense
like the the. Texans do not score fantasy
points. There are there are many stretch
like how many games this year did you like look at a Texans
box score and you're like CJ Stroud, 189 yards, Nico 4 for
76, Dalton Schultz 3 for 36. Woody Marks 18 rushes, 38 yards.
I'm going to, I'm going to pick the biggest.
Chalk piece that I and I'm just going to go and order a chalk
and see if you guys, well I'm I by the way, I'm fine to admit I
was wrong. About the Texan defense, I
didn't. I didn't think about it that
much. I think you can.
Play I enjoy that you that. It makes me.
Think that a lot of. People are going to play Texan,
Steve more than yeah, because I'm trying to like, stick, you
know? I used the.
Previous years as as like, you know, data points to try to keep
me like on the rails a little bit.
The Texans potentially might be like the most faded team with
the pretty live odds of making the Super Bowl, which is I don't
want to like, I didn't want to like start there because like by
like by a decent amount. But I think that's probably
where we do get to is that they're they're faded like a
team that has like a 9% chance when they actually have like a
19% chance to make. I agree.
I like this point. They're the same favorite.
This week as New England is on the road yeah 3 1/2 no their
their odds of making the. Super Bowl are basically.
Identical to. To New England's so they they
should be treated very similarly.
Let me try to move us along because.
I think there's I'll take JSN, I'll take JSN.
I think he's the the highest stoned.
Player let you go next. I am the same, yeah.
All right, I'm going to put Collins in.
All right. I I mean, I will I'll.
Upset the apple cart here I'm going to take my favorite play
of the tournament I will take. Bow Nix.
Wow. All right, now we are.
Now we are rolling. God damn it, Jacob, what the
fuck just happened? Look.
Nobody believes in this team they have.
Great Super Bowl odds. They have an Of all of the
quarterbacks, this is one of the spots where the quarterback is
the most likely, where if the Broncos get to the Super Bowl,
Bonex is extremely likely to be the optimal Bronco, more so than
perhaps any other player on their team except for maybe
Drake May. And I don't think he's going to
attract much ownership at all. I think he's an unreal play in
this tournament. He's getting this is fun, this
is fun, I'm in. Let's go.
All right, Davis, what do you want to do next?
Your Eagles? What do you want?
To do next Davis. And you could say anything.
You. You.
Want to go go for a walk? You want to go hang out with
your dog? I do.
I do think about. It.
I guess give. Me.
Give me A.J. Brown.
OK. Barkley, Brown and.
And Barkley are. This is the FFPC.
It's it's 8. 7 to one, eight to one Yeah, I I have AI have.
A pretty heavy to Barkley. OK, I I someone someone in I
have. AI have a 2 to one but Barkley
to 150%. So, OK, well, I'll go.
I'll throw McCaffrey in then. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Someone in. Pete's discord had a really
funny comment the other day. If if Kelsey's name just showed
up when you click tight end like not no, no opponent like the
chiefs have not qualified for the post season.
But Kelsey's name was just in here.
How many muscle memory clicks on Travis Kelsey from the Chiefs
being in there Like he's still he's still like like 10 people
out of just pure but remembrance.
We're just like, oh, well, obviously it's FGC playoff
challenge. You got to put Kelsey in.
Wouldn't you love the game of sleepwalking?
He just finds. Himself at his computer like.
He's just a bunch of he's just, I want to, I want to answer
Joel's question. Why not play Trevor Lawrence to
get the other extra game? First off, I also really like
Trevor Lawrence. I like Knicks and Lawrence's
plays. But like, you don't, you only
get the extra game if they both make the Super Bowl and they
can't both make the Super Bowl. So you don't, you don't actually
get the extra game. You you get it if the Jaguars
make a Super Bowl. But Speaking of the Jaguars,
I'll take Travis. I like Lawrence too in.
This all right? I like both Lawrence and and
Nicks just because I think they're.
Going to have low ownership compared to Allen and May and I
think the the three quarterbacks in this whole tournament that
I'm like extremely confident are the optimal quarterback in the
world where their team gets to the Super Bowl would be May
Nicks and and Lawrence. I I think Allen and Allen can
get outscored by Cook. Hertz can get outscored by
Barkley or Brown like Stafford probably is outscored by Pukum
Purdy's probably outscored by McCaffrey.
I I think that really low ownership on Nixon Lawrence when
if they get there, they're in the optimal is is really
intriguing to me, especially when Nick is the one Steve, do
we want Cook then? Or do you want to just soft bait
the bills? Is that too risky?
That's up to you guys. No.
Do we? I think we.
I think we, I, I think we want Cook or Kincaid.
I don't want anything to do with.
Kincaid I He's not. He's not.
I, I meant to, I meant to bring this up earlier, 'cause.
I agreed with Shope's point that like, if the if the Bills do
find something, they do end up making the Super Bowl.
It it like becomes because Kincaid.
Yeah, I think that's a good theory.
The the Bo Knicks, this being a Bo Knicks team, it's sort of
tough to because you're not really playing for if you have
an AFC quarterback that's not Josh Allen, it makes it tough to
bet on Kincaid because that that that whole theory doesn't really
work because they're not making the Super Bowl.
Bo Knicks is right. Yep, I think so all.
Right, so we. Don't have a RAM yet?
Well, we, we. Yeah, we.
We took Bo. Necks.
So we are in a, we are in a, what the kids would call a rare
part of the game tree. You know what?
Sorry, sorry that I made a good play.
No. It's, it's fine.
I'm I'm not criticizing. You I'm just saying we are in a
part. Of the game tree that our
opponents are currently not joining us in.
As I as I noted before, Bonex has a low success rate.
Not as low of a success rate as this lineup, but it is lower
than I do. Yeah, we don't have.
We don't have the new. England.
LA game. If if bone Nix if the Broncos
get to the. Super Bowl all you're just going
to see. The FFTC challenge is just so
what's what's your Sanderson 7? Sanderson can.
You lay out your. Broncos win the Super Bowl, path
to. Me like what what's your what
are you hoping for as we think about the bracket?
Oh well, they're they're like, who do they have a?
Buy. So that's pretty, I know that.
But then I'm trying to think of the rest of our bracket.
Here OK, do you want to they will in Round 2 they will
probably. Well, they'll they'll play,
yeah. I mean, I want them to play the
Chargers, but I that seems, I mean, I guess we could play it
that way. Yeah, I'll play.
That would be helpful. Yeah, I'll take a.
I'm Marion Hampton, all right. Man.
Poor Pat has to call me a Homer. Can't call me a Homer, here I
am. Yeah, taking the chargers that
'cause you should square if, if they, if the if the chargers get
there. I mean I think the Broncos at
home certainly can beat any other team, but they would be
uniquely well positioned to beat the Chargers who have no O line
like the Chargers I think are dead in that game.
So Pittsburgh is almost. Certainly a fade now full.
Fade Green Bay, right? We don't have Green Bay or
Chicago, but we have Loveland. We have.
We have Loveland. And.
Then Carolina, I I think you don't.
Have New England it does. It does kind of feel like if
you're. If you're taking.
If you're taking Loveland, it does kind of feel soft fade
Green Bay because I think as a panel we.
Probably all have a lower. Estimation of Green Bay than the
market does with the Green Bay defense.
I don't. I think Green Bay's fine.
I think Green Bay's I. Think Green Bay's.
I mean, I think we all. We know about.
We've been using the sidekick, yeah.
We think, we think. It's just it's.
Literally the market number in. There, it's not.
It's. Not me, we like Green Bay.
Also, is not the type of. Team that is likely to have like
a crazy fantasy score in a loss, right?
Green Bay defense, New England kicker.
Works, I think. Yeah.
Andy. Andy Borogalis.
Yep. And you're you're fading the.
Steelers and Panthers. So this this is a hard fade.
Steelers. Panthers.
And it's a soft fade. Patriots Packers Patriots
Packers. All right.
Shut that there. It is.
Any. Major.
Objections. No no.
First minor. Many minor ones.
I would say don't Dupus, but I know you won't.
I know you won't. No one will have the courage.
Listen, I'm sitting here going Boomer.
Opto. Do I want to even though I think
I knew what Slappy meant? Do I want to ask?
Maybe there could be a song, Maybe it's the best of 2025 for
another definition, but that I take it a little bit personally.
So I don't really. Well, I did Slappy's case.
Also, I don't really need the boomer opto.
I believe is a. Son coin term and it's just the
optimal lineup if you have the mind of a boomer do I and I
don't think you do no you you you you you have to say Davis
that's more. Of the mind.
Of the boomer, the Davis really would be.
Davis was walking in that. Texans D Guy had a.
Kid guy had a kid one time and it's like fucking.
Texans defense, Let's go. That's fine.
The the Joel here also. Got some boomer tendencies.
Fairband should be the auto kick click I I dude, I think the and
I say that because you know who like the more than any of us is
to Miko. Ryan's SO.
Texan soft fade I think is inherently.
Boomer, because you're not playing, you can't tell me
you're playing the Steelers. I know you're not playing the
Steelers. So I I have I'm doing 30
lineups. Between the 200 and the 35, I
plan on having 20% Kenneth Gainwell, I think Steelers and.
Panthers. Like kind of the Evergreen shark
plays are are playing just like the obvious clicks on teams like
the Steelers and Panthers. Like no one because no one wants
to do it and it sucks to do it. It's not fun.
Gainwell would be my pick too. For Pittsburgh.
Game was a great a great pit a great play because like.
And and he also like if they win.
Then sweet you get a low advanced guy for two games but
if they lose like he's he's the ultimate negative game script
guy right? Like he it's just he could get
11 catches and a loss. Also, doesn't he always look
really good? This year he does.
He looks really good, yeah. Yeah, I liked him.
Surprised. I thought he'd be.
I thought he'd be like a starter.
He's still not. Yeah, he was like the he was
like the 9th best running back in.
Memphis University history once shared a backfield with what was
it, Daryl Henderson, Tony Pollard?
It's it's a legendary, it's a legend.
It it's a legendary theme. I got to go.
Pull it up. Do you, Gibson?
Do you know this Taylor gentleman?
Saying that you're not a boomer 'cause you used to double date
the cheerleaders in our high school.
They weren't the cute ones. That they were the cheerleaders,
Kevin is in fact. Shope's, Shope's age Kevin,
Kevin is, is a boomer. I don't know why you wouldn't be
a boomer for, I mean, frankly, dating.
A a cheerleader. In high school?
Sounds like a pretty boomer thing to do.
That's boomers technically are like 80 now by the way. 75 to 80
they're I'm not quite there yet. Like dating a cheerleader in the
50s. We I'm not a.
Boomer. I dated a cheerleader and listen
to The Beatles like, OK, sure, you don't sound like a boomer.
OK, hold. On the 20. 18 the 20. 18 Memphis
Tigers This team went eight and six, by the way, eight and six.
The 2018 Memphis Tigers Daryl Henderson, Patrick Taylor, Tony
Pollard, Kenny Gainwell, Calvin Austin Antonio Gibson Oh, I
forgot about Gibson 8. And six no Tyler Shuck.
Even. That long ago, Tyler Shuck was
playing at Oregon then. Justin Herbert's back up, right?
It wasn't on the. Ducks with Justin Herbert.
By the way, I I just this is like, I mean, this is not.
Related at all to what we're doing, But like I just, I
learned a huge lesson in being Bayesian this year, specifically
with Tyler Shuck, because I was like, this guy is not a
prospect. There's no fucking chance he's
horrible. And then like he gets he goes in
the second round. They're kind of talking about
him. He had, he had a like a weirdly
good combine. Like he was like kind of, he was
like kind of athletic at the combine.
And I just like at some point in June just completely changed my
mind and started drafting the shit out of him.
And it's just like, wow, you actually can.
It's a good thing to remain pliable and adjust your your
thoughts to new information. He was a great superflex.
Pick Yeah, I. Didn't really get to him that
much in regular basketball, but Davis had a bunch of him at
Superflex to. Corroborate Davis.
Point he did get to him on May. 6th in Last Call and it was a
controversial vote because Chuck was Last Call's highest scoring
player this year. There we go.
Dude, he did not win the MVP. He finished second.
In the MVP voting to Jackson Dart, who carried as the only
quarterback on the team fraudulent MMP Pat's team to a
resounding. Win in last.
Call everyone. Everyone was shitting on my
team. Everyone shat on my team so hard
and it finished second in this, which is very, very funny.
Did everyone do that? Everyone.
Literally the comments. Were 100%.
Aligned and shitting on my last call team, every last one of
them. So we don't have all the numbers
up, do we have? Do we have?
When I took fannin was it .4 seconds before?
Davis as the chart. That's good, Fannin.
Was the highest. Scoring tight end Pat's team so
weeks. 151617. All players that were drafted
out of the top 200 at the time we week on a weekly basis made
these picks. Holy shit, Pat's.
Team was the highest. Scoring team each.
Week, OH. Baby 106. .3. 4IN week. 15
that's a pretty good feat Dart. Wait what is it?
How much do I have one O 6.3? 4IN week 15.
With Dart, Devon Neal, Woody Marks, Troy Franklin in the 17.8
AD, Mitchell's 14.4, Jalen Coker's 12, Schultz 17.6 and
Valet in the flex at 9.4, that was the highest scoring week for
anybody. I would have made some BBM teams
in in some in some advancing odds of that.
You could have put me in your pod.
I would have. I wouldn't have finished last.
That's right. A couple more things.
I had no quarterbacks. At all.
Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones, Spencer Rattler.
All zeros. Davis had zeros at wide
receiver. All eight guys almost in Week
17. In Week 17, almost no points at
all for the playoff season. Davis got an 18 from Jaylen.
Naylor. In week 15, an 8 from Lambert
Smith in week 15 and then nobody else went for more than a point
in 1/2. That is OK, that's perfect,
that. That is, is so perfect 'cause
then, I mean, if you look at this list though, OK, I got 0
points. I mean, this whole list, were
any of these guys anyone you would have wanted in in those
weeks? Orton got hurt, Yeah.
He. Would have.
No, no. I'm.
Saying I'm saying all of our wide.
Receivers, look at the whole like Tesla.
Mine were terrible Tesla, you would have wanted Pat Bryant
died. Troy Franklin didn't really die,
but kind of died. I had Alec Pierce, the highest
scoring receiver. We There you go.
Alec Pierce 42 points Alec Pierce, but he.
Had zero in 17. And he had two points in 15.
Yeah, but. But but but what I'm saying is
and I there here. Is a lesson we can actually take
forward to ourselves, Mac Nova said.
That is. Our slappy king.
I got 0 points but but. Well.
I actually think this is maybe more.
Instructive. And actually something we can
all take away from last call, which is that those wide
receiver clicks you're making in the the 161718, maybe just do
anything else, maybe just literally anyone else than than
those dudes. Well, what did we find?
We found some tight ends, Pat. Got a 12.9 from Noel in the
week. 17 Also for Houston idle manner for for Jacob had a 11
point Coker, Juan Fanon Coker. Sure, Coker had some points, I
mean. T for Eddie Mitchell like prior.
If they. If they.
Stuck with Tyrod Taylor. If they stuck with Taylor,
Smash. Yeah, yeah.
Davis's. Chuck and Juan.
Johnson Stack worked out nicely for him.
College, College roommates and NF.
LNFL Stack Partners look at that one quarterback and he rode to.
A pretty easy. Win.
Yeah. So that was fun.
That was fun. That was fun.
Tonight is Boomer. Opto we've.
We've been talking about. It and we will see what you guys
think We let me let me ask you this for the for the.
For my boomer. Opto, give me your Put yourself
in the mind of a boomer please, and you have to fade.
Four teams. And I I for fade purposes.
For fade purposes. Kicker and.
Defense count, so the. Four teams you're not.
Picking anything from 2 and kicker and defense for two more
and you're now you're in your boomer.
Mindset, OK. Think, think back to those
glorious days with the, you know, the car, it's the old
classics going down the road. You got, you're holding hands
with the cheerleader. You got you got a pop in your
hand here I sell the sodie pop. I got a.
Sodie pop. So it's November 5th, 19. 55 All
right, go. On Mayor Goldie Wilson, signs
all over town, Yeah. Anyway, you put yourself in that
mindset and tell me which four teams you're fading.
I guess that's. Where he got the idea to run for
mayor, Which 4? Teams Am I fading?
Pittsburgh. Carolina Chargers, Packers.
OK. Is that what I have?
Yeah. Pittsburgh, Carolina charges
Packers Davis. Sorry, say that again.
Which four teams are you fading? If if you're a boomer.
Not a Davis but but Boomer need your boomer mind.
Panthers is the most obvious. I think Steelers I can, so this
is what I'm trying. To understand is because the.
To the boomer, the boomers are are sort of partial to Tomlin
and Rogers and you you see what I'm saying?
Like they they actually might be doing a little bit more like
Gainwell Metcalf. If the Colts had made this,
Phillip Rivers would probably be. 15.
Percent yeah, I it feels. Like feels like a boomer fade is
the. Bears feels like a boomer fade
is like Caleb Williams paints his fucking nails, dude.
No chance. That's a good point, yeah.
Packers, Come on, man. Packers play the game the right
way. I love the steak.
All right, so so. It's what?
What were the four then? If I'm a boomer, I'm fading.
Texans, Panthers. Bears.
I really am having a hard time finding the 4th.
I think it's still the Steelers. I think it's.
Still, the Steelers I. You know what?
You know what is is kind of sneaky and Chad.
Just said this in the chat. I wonder if there's a little bit
of Jacksonville, Jacksonville soft fade.
I think there's some Jacksonville soft fade, yeah.
What, what none of you guys have said is the Chargers.
So you guys don't think the Chargers, Chargers you did, the
Chargers, Chargers you did too? Wait, yeah, I thought you said
the Packers. Packers.
Chargers, Steelers, Mike and I both are the same.
Packers, Chargers. Oh.
Oh, OK. So I missed.
I missed, sorry. I just completely wept there
while you're in boomer mode the last quarterback.
To win a Monday night game in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers have won 23. Consecutive home Monday night
games. Trent Dilfer, Jeff Hostetler.
Was. A pretty good guess.
Real. Yep, 1991 Giants.
Steelers at Three Rivers Stadium on the turf is the last Steelers
Monday night home loss. I believe it's 23 in a row.
I know that's the number. Wow, you're up.
CJ Stroud. OK, this is a boomer and a.
Packers. Fan Packers don't have a shot,
but that the Packers fan actually makes you less reliable
in this case because you're like, this is a very
disappointing season as the Packers fan.
So you know they have a definite shot.
It's no one who I'd want to. Pick from Green Bay, but sure
they do so other other potential fades.
So Green Bay over. Houston, the Boomers fading
Green Bay what? What's your defense in the in
you guys? Both said Pittsburgh, Carolina
Chargers, Packers. Where's the defense come from?
Packers defense or Packers defense?
Steelers I. See I I have Steelers D is is.
Actually, the chalk D 'cause I think this is how if it's those
four teams, even if you sub in the Bears, Chargers D yeah,
there's boomer not equal chalk. Actually, no, I think, I think
people. Would go pack I think the.
Most common would be hard fade Steelers, hard fade Panthers,
Packers D and Dicker the kicker. OK.
I probably. Need to get Packers D up?
Now I could see, but I could. I could see Packers and
Steelers. D being pretty similar, we just
took Green Bay and ours by. The way, right?
Yeah. Packers D wasn't.
Like a very high. Scoring D this year they they
were like the fourth worst scoring D and Steelers was the
3rd best. So I'm thinking people actually
play Steelers DA Bunch, but the thing about that game, the Green
Bay game, is that. This is their third meeting in
like a month. Well I wonder what that needs to
the game. I think Steelers will be the
most common defense just because like.
Like currently I have I mean and and obviously I'm sure I'll.
Be wrong by a lot but like. I have like an 80% total fade on
the Steelers. So like whereas the Packers I
have as my fourth most popular, but I only have them 45% and I I
have 79% is is the Steelers, so. We're we're holding hands there
'cause like there's going to be random other teams too.
Right, Like they'll be like, you know, a little bit of Chargers
D, There's going to be some Texans D like we talked about
already. There's going to be like a
little bit of Bears, DA little bit of, I mean, I think there'll
be a little bit of Seahawks and Broncos D because you could
play, you could play that. Their first?
Game too. I had some of that too.
I think that. Seahawks will be less popular
than Broncos because you have to give up JSN.
Yeah, and people are pretty. Easy.
Denver's pretty easy, I think people.
I think people will. Like playing Broncos D because.
I mean, unless I have them as the third highest, unless,
unless you're a believer, it's it's a weird team and.
That like I don't know are. People that pump to play Sutton
or Harvey, like, I doubt it, Yeah.
No, I think but the problem is that.
If you fade Denver, which I actually have Denver 16% faded,
which is a quite a bit higher than than you would expect for
the team's strength and that's to make the Super Bowl.
If you fade them, then then you're.
Playing. Both sides of the Packers,
Bears, or you're playing both sides of the Chargers, Patriots,
right? So or you're playing a Steeler
and a or a Panther. So it kind of puts you in a spot
where like, I don't think a lot of people will go there.
You might actually start with Denver D and get to the end and
then you're like, no, I'm playing Steelers D and I'm
playing Sutton or whatever. I mean, I think that honestly.
I think that Sutton and Harvey are bad plays because if you
think about the Broncos stuff in the scenario in which the.
Broncos lose Round 2. Like probably.
You want them. Hard faded or Broncos D or
kicker if they get to the Super Bowl I think you want.
Knicks. So I think that Sutton and
Harvey are like only like there's a range of
possibilities, but the only world in which Sutton or Harvey
are likely to be the most optimal Bronco is specifically
they win round two and lose round 3.
But I don't think people are going to go through that whole
math like if the NFC quarterbacks are really unlikely
to be optimal versus their teammates, except for maybe
Hertz. But Stafford is is a dog to
Puka. Purdy's a dog to McCaffrey.
Caleb, if they get there would would be the would be an
exception to this. But I don't think people are are
playing. It's not just that Stafford's a
dog to Puka, but the two V2. Of like Nick's puka versus
Stafford Sutton. It's like, not even close.
Yeah. And like, even Hertz, like Hertz
is probably gonna. Outscore, well, definitely
outscore Nix, but like will Hertz outscore Nix by more than
Barkley or Brown outscores Harvey or something Like I'm not
sure. I would probably say Nix is the
favorite on that because everything gets so spread out
there. So I I really think Broncos
Super Bowl you want Nix. Broncos lose Round 2.
They're just like any. Other round one.
Team like, I don't know, are like Harvey and Sutton more
likely to be higher scoring in a round two loss than Dowdell and
Tetero McMillan? Like they're like coin flips
with those guys. So I I just think that the
Broncos skill players are going to be drastically overplayed.
And, and probably what I think more people should do is is
either take Nicks or they should just fade the team entirely.
I think it's a narrow path for Sutton and Harvey.
I like this take. I don't know that the.
Field's going to play like this. But it's a honestly, that's the
most compelling case for Nick's quarterback.
Well, I do. You.
I don't think they're going to. Play it a little.
That's why I think it's a good pick.
No, I know. I thought they were going to
play like a little bit. More.
You've you've got me thinking, maybe Nix gets up to to.
Where he's actually played more than Stafford, for example.
But I am more than Stafford. But yeah, A.
Lot, but maybe that's just my own.
What do you have Nix at? Let me.
Pull that up I. Have Nix at. 10 and I have
Stafford at three. Yeah, Jacob's legal mind at
work. That.
Should be, yeah. I I don't mind.
I don't mind. It I bet.
Purdy goes pretty underplayed. Well, I made an underplay, but I
He's probably not gonna get played much at all 'cause you I
think he's gonna get squeeze a ton, 'cause he's gonna get.
Squeeze and if you get yourself off McCaffrey, I think it's
easier to talk yourself into. Well, I'll take the tight end.
Yeah, yeah, I probably have him I had.
Him at 5:00 that's probably too high.
I wonder if quarterback's a bit more spread than that's all I
had it that. That you're probably maybe.
Closer to right, because every year that I, every year I feel
like I think it's going to be a little bit more spread and it's
never that spread. May's an easy click.
In a lot of ways because you you don't have to think about the
Patriots headache if you don't take May and then and to your
point, I mean, Alan, you just go to cook that's super comfy and
then you don't have to He's not a.
Gross. Click either.
Like, you're like, yeah, I mean, May could put up a lot of points
and he can be optimal in two games.
What'd you say? What do you have, Hertz?
Hat ownership wise 8 'cause I mean I I do wonder like did you
have .8? No, I haven't.
Like way higher. That's really.
Yeah, yeah, I haven't. Oh, interesting.
Please say 25. Well, I just.
Wonder like is everyone? Is is everyone in the whole?
Field just going to take an AFC quarterback basically, then
maybe yes, doesn't really matter.
Maybe. Yes, yeah.
I mean. Hertz is not.
He hasn't had that. Good of a year.
He's no, he hasn't traditionally been played.
That much? They don't have great odds to
make the Super Bowl. They're they're what about, what
about Goddard? What about Goddard for the
Eagles? With these fake bullshit
touchdowns they give him, he'll get a little bit, he'll get a
little, he'll get a little. He's he's kind of interesting to
me. Thinking about it.
I have him at 8:00. I think I'm at. 11:00 I could go
down a. Little bit.
What do you have? Total tight end?
It feels like it's gonna be a really low year. 120% so 1.2
tight end so. So I have exactly 120 as well,
but I'm wondering if that's high.
I think it might actually be high, and I think some of it is,
but. Schultz comes down because
people fade Houston a little bit more than I was thinking, and
they don't fade. Yeah, I've got to figure out
where the fate. The thing is, there's like.
You end up having to play more teams than you want to play in
this in this year's. So it's like, oh, I'm gonna, I'm
gonna fade. Houston, LA, Pittsburgh,
Carolina and Green Bay. They're like got to play someone
and like, it's one of. Those teams, you got to play
someone. From I think Gadsden is a fun
long shot. At tight end I could see it's
fading New England like we are. Yeah, I can see that.
When New England fades, because I think new.
England catches a little. Fade too.
And I think Denver catches some fade to your point.
And then I think Jacksonville catches some fade and then the
bears as well. So there's like, but I also
think that. The Panthers.
And the Steelers get Uber faded and, and one of the the things
from doing this over the years, last year I had Denver 86%
projected fade. They came in at 86%.
I had Steelers at 88%. They came in at 91%.
That's total fade including kicker and D Green Bay the year
before I had it 77 percent, 74 Pittsburgh, I had it 94%.
They came in at 95 like it is. Yeah, these like massive, like
the the the seven seeds that suck or whatever, the low the
the people think the crap out of them.
I mean the Steelers and Panthers.
Are both. Fours so this.
You can make the same argument, it's just this year.
For what it's worth, the sevens are way better.
The sixes and sevens are way better than they've been for
years. This is the sixth year of the 17
play offs. There's only ever been one close
game between the two and the seven, and that was kind of a
fluke. Buffalo was A2 touchdown
favorite against Skylar Thompson and 13431.
The Bills have been the 2 four times in these five years.
But a lot of these these Steeler teams at 7.
In fact, the 17 to win is Green Bay in Dallas and they blew him
out. Wasn't even a close game anyway.
Well, and I don't think people really believe in the twos and.
The threes the same like like no one is Lowen is looking at the
Bears the way that they looked at previous two seeds, right?
I I mean no one, even the patriots.
I don't think people are viewing this like a dominant team.
I mean the the team that that'll it seems like the most common
Super Bowl pick out of the AFC is the Bills, who's a six seed
and it's the Rams, who's a five seed.
That's who, that's who people believe in.
So it's it's it's yeah, it's a really weird yeah.
The three seat people don't really believe in the Jags.
People don't. Believe in the Patriots, really,
no one really believes in the Broncos.
So, yeah, it's, it's, I mean, the Texans are kind of.
But now you're already to. Like I kind of picking the
Texans because I don't no one's going to think I'm dumb if I,
you know, because it's sort of a long shot.
Like I'm already getting the long shot juice, you know, when
you go. But like, who then who's the
favorite? Yeah, it's wild, I guess.
The more chances are take take more chances this year because
the Rocco's people maybe I shouldn't have.
Given that. Away, you know, now I'm going to
see I'm going to see all these Bonex teams in the FFPC playoff
challenge. Well Bonex is is also.
I mean he is a boomer. So I think he'll have, you know,
by being the same age. As the people selecting him I
think maybe. He does get this because like,
if you look at where the quarterback ownership tends to
come from over the years, it is a lot of I want my quarterback
in the Super Bowl because you get double points in the Super
Bowl. Obviously, quarterbacks score a
lot of points. So trying to get your
quarterback in the Super Bowl has been, you know, an obvious
and popular way to play this. Maybe I'm just underestimating.
Nix, and maybe he's. Feels like a growth, a grosser
Click to me than he will to a a a section of the field.
I hope you're not. Isn't is is is is Josh?
Is Josh not just going to be? The the huge.
Chalk on the phone. Next I had I had Alan as the as
the chalk. Over May when I did my first
run, but then I kind of came off of that a bit after talking with
Jacob. But you think so when?
You're. Putting a line together and
you're. Starting with the Bills.
Are you? Do you want Cook or Josh?
In a vacuum, I'd much rather have Alan, but yeah.
I tend to agree. Vacuum Alan for sure, and.
I just keep going to the the 2 V 2 of May cook to me feels so
much better than Allen anybody patriots but I I.
But I mean, if people start with.
Quarterback and then they don't care.
I guess that's the boomer way to build, right.
You just you start with your quarterback, you put Allen in
yeah. So if you just put Allen in and
you. Don't even start thinking about.
The two V2, I think you put Allen in, then you just put in
Allen and. Then you just figure it out.
So that's, that's maybe I think they'll be pretty close.
What time is the show tonight? I believe it is at 8 Eastern 5.
Pacific 930 Plumeropto reveal Newfoundland. 9. 30.
In Newfoundland Atlantic. Is that Atlantic or is like 9?
Is it 7 central? Some special other. 17 Central.
6 mountain, 7 central, Yeah. Do you know more?
Of the schedule for the week it. Feels like it's going to be like
we're doing ownership. On Wednesday we're on
Boomeropto, then the ownership reveal, then we're going to be
talking with with Draco and Sacrilegious on Thursday,
talking some of the the other playoff baseball contests as
well as this one. And then on Friday, Leonie's
joining us and we're doing our final build and I, I think
Dink's joining us too. I should have confirmed that,
but but we're going to do the the same show that we that we do
every year. Leonie's definitely coming.
Yeah. Davis, you have anything of your
own this week? Probably.
Yeah, Karain and I are. Streaming.
At 12:30 Central, 10:30 Pacific. And would that would that be
2:00 PM Atlantic time, 2:00 PM Newfland, yes.
So 2. PM The funny way to say it is.
Just maritime. Yes. 2 PM. 2:00 PM Maritime.
On my channel, Crane and I will be firing up the The Sims.
We're going to be trying to draft some winners and, and
doing that there and then immediately after this we do
this whole cast. 630 Greenwich Mean perhaps.
Jacob Yeah, we'll have our our usual dynasty.
Points show tonight. But then thinking about
thinking, I will just be writing about this.
I'll be writing about Bo Nicks, I think mostly today, and I'll
do it right up on every team. It's a good thing.
We'll do some some stuff Flag. And later in this week, those of
you who don't get enough bills in the fantasy.
Space I'm on WGR every weekday from three to seven.
I'll have the post game show Sunday Ross Tucker today for
Eastern and best of luck to your Co host for the for the MVP.
Yes. Yeah, you're.
Good for Stafford, for anybody. Who joined us, you know, within?
The last hour and a half. Hang on.
That's it. Thank.
Thank you everybody. Thanks to the FFPC for.
Coordinating with us and enjoy the rest of your day.