We are into the double digit weeks of the NFL season and many
are declaring that week 10 is the official week of the slappy.
With players like Jamison Williams and Trayvon Henderson
having breakout games, this is stat chasing.
Oh, am I supposed to do a? Pat Fryer, Helmo Anita.
Hand Job. Fix your sight.
Jamar alpha play Chase. Tony, you can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finally at this point here, right?
This is stat chasing is this. I, I, I I'm just having all
sorts of tech issues. I had to restart my computer.
That's why we're late. And then your your audio cut out
because I was fetching the YouTube link.
And so. I thought there was an awkward
delay between when you did it. I think there was an awkward
delay between when you said this is not chasing and when I did it
and then you were about to say this is not chasing again.
Yeah, I, I was just trying to feel the dead air there.
I I figured I just say this is stat chasing as many times as it
takes. It's like, it's like you saying
this is that chasing is a button and you're like, oh, that didn't
work, let me press the button again.
Yes, yeah, yeah, exactly. Just let me refresh it.
I'll refresh. This is stat chasing.
We'll see if that works. All right, Well, since we we had
a little bit of a slow start tonight, we're a little behind
schedule. Why don't we go ahead and dive
right into the quarterback charts.
We don't need too much of A preamble here.
We'll we'll talk about all the fun stuff as we go through the
charts. Yeah.
So here is yeah, here's our charts and our quarterback
chart. And we obviously we, we had a
big come down to air game for Jacoby percent, which that's,
that's kind of interesting to dig into.
And, and, and I guess the the big thing was that his he seemed
just seemed to be on his back under pressure all game.
Yeah, he, I mean the final, I think the final counting stats
like for fantasy ended up being OK.
I wanna I wanna pull it up just to.
Verify that 260 yards, yeah, 44 attempts.
So like you said, the the overall volume sets ended up
being OK. He's only like 261 last week,
279. So like the volume sets were
fine. Obviously another phenomenal
game for Trey McBride. So it it, it ended up working
out just because they had they, they attempted so many passes.
Yeah, but he he ends with the two touchdowns, no
interceptions, but yeah, poor completion percentage, only 50%
completion percentage takes the five sacks, which is actually
the same as he took against Dallas, you know, even though
they were beating the brakes off in Dallas.
But yeah, I mean, if you watch this game, definitely the the
box score does not look anywhere near as bad as the the start of
this game looked. I mean, at the end of the game,
you know, when they're in comeback mode, he looked about
as competent as I would guess Kyler Murray would have looked,
you know, but it definitely it showed that Jacoby Brissett is
not going to be the long term solution for this team at
quarterback. But I, I mean, I do want to give
some credit to the Seattle defense.
They're, they're very good, but definitely a, a, you know, come
back to earth game for Brissett. The, the other big note that I
had probably the largest change on this chart, the 100 rush
yards per game quarterback really improved his adjusted
yards per 10th this week. Normally he's down around 4 this
week he's up around 9:00. That that's a, that's a bad
joke. I, I just moved the reference
bubble because he, he fit a little better up there and
didn't skew our chart quite as bad.
But in, in all seriousness, the next note I had was about these
guys in the bottom left quadrant, kind of near the
median for volume. But I've, I've dubbed them the
quartet of suck where you've got Tua, Gino Smith, Bryce Young and
JJ McCarthy. And I I think the thing that's
important to take away from these guys, that's not just, oh,
hey, these quarterbacks are bad in in real life, you know, you
probably weren't starting them for fantasy.
But I think all of these guys are bad enough that they are
negatively impacting their pass catching weapons.
And kind of roughly in the order that they are listed here,
right, where JJ McCarthy negatively impacts his weapons
the most, followed by Bryce Young and then Gino and Tua,
where with Tua, like, yeah, you can.
I mean, you also benefit you, you have only Jalen Waddle.
There really is like a pass catcher that you're thinking of
playing in most formats. And so it's like it's so
condensed there too that you'll and same with Gino, where it's
like, well, I'm really only going to play Brock Bauer.
So it's like, at least with those two, it's like, well, when
when those quarterbacks have a functional week, you're at least
more likely to have a a usable week from their primary weapon.
I mean, Bryce Young, you kind of could say the same thing in that
it really should just be Ted McMillan.
I mean, that's how it it shakes out most games like where often
times McMillan is the only one with, you know, more than a
catch or two so. Right, right, right, right.
And, and I think the big thing for him is he hasn't got that
many touchdowns, correct. He he ends up OK on yardage, he
ends up OK on on that catches just because he is the focal
point, but you've got no, you've got no touchdowns.
Yeah, I, I do really think like for purposes of, you know,
something that's actionable, I think you can just go ahead and
all of the this I, I did this for DFS this last week.
I went in and took the entire Vikings passing game and just,
you know, the projection source that I used, I went in there and
docked all of their projections because it's just really hard to
project players for as bad as they could be.
Like, especially when they're, you know, off of a small sample.
Like JJ McCarthy has thrown less passes in his NFL career than
Joe Flacco's thrown in two games this season.
You know, like, we're dealing with really, really small
samples. And so you can't just go in
there and project JJ McCarthy to be complete and total cheeks off
of that small of a sample. Like there's got to be some room
for, you know, volatility in there.
We're like, well, we've basically seen nothing from this
guy. So he could totally be better
than we've seen. You know, people have bad games,
but I'm I'm just when. He's doing projections.
They have to like when when somebody and and somebody's been
kind of like historically bad, like they have to weight it
towards like an average. They can't do make the
efficiency the worst you've ever seen.
Like it's not a credible projection, but that that's kind
of that's, or at least that's how people think about
projections. That's not incredible way to do
it, but. Yeah, and and I'm saying this,
yeah, go in there and put your thumb on the scale.
And I mean, like for me is there and like the places where you'd
get burned doing this is like, you know, if you if you said the
same thing about oh, well, I I've seen all I need to see
about Davis Mills. You know, I mean, granted, Davis
Mills was projected for like nothing out like he, JJ McCarthy
was projected for like 17 most places I saw in DraftKings
points and Davis Mills was like between 12 and 14 depending on
where you look. And so it's like, I, I think JJ
McCarthy is probably just that bad, you know, possibly worse.
And I, I didn't move him down that low, but I, I took a couple
points off of his 17 point projection and said, you know,
that's, I'm fine putting my thumb on the scale to that
extent. That's how I think that this is
actionable where you, and then I did the same with his past
catchers where I think that's the more important part to me
where it's like you're docking the efficiency on these guys.
Like you're saying Justin Jefferson, he's not projecting
like you normally would project Justin Jefferson because he has
JJ McCarthy in there. But like Draco said, it's really
hard to go in there if you are doing the projections and be
like, well, this guy's efficiency is normally, you
know, 2.2 yards per route run, but we're going to dock him down
to 2.1 or two. Like when maybe it's more
correct to have it down around like 1.5.
But that's just such a large deviation.
And you need to have so much more confidence in that to like
actually put that out and publish it as a projection where
I, I think, you know, just for your own personal use, you can
go in there and put the thumb on the scale to that extent.
And that's that's what I would be doing with these guys where,
you know, less so for Tua and Gino just because it's so
condensed to the one guy, but for Bryce Young and McCarthy,
where they're they're kind of the worst of these four.
And then also, like you do have other pass catching options
there. I mean, you you probably
shouldn't for Bryce Young, but like they'll throw targets to
other people. You know, it just they won't
condense on anyone other than like your own usable one.
It's going to be T Mac. But anyway, I felt like the
quartet of suck was was worth bringing up there.
Did you have anything to add on that?
No, no, I, I I agree with what you're saying there.
I do think, I guess I think it's a little bit interesting that
Chuck, I thought Chuck was like just like one of the worst
generationally bad, but he he he's been up there as efficient
as Rogers and Stroud and Pennix. That's a pretty nice boon for
the the the Saints pass catchers.
Yeah, the the thing that's interesting to me is, you know,
we saw they were willing to throw a little bit more with
Rattler. I felt like maybe it's just the
game scripts that they were in or, or what, but or maybe it's
just Kellen Moore taking it easy with Tyler Shuck right out of
the gate. But man, he's actually he's one
where it's kind of fun. Where?
If you he's a gunslinger. Yeah, and if you got the pass
attempts up, if you, if you got the drop backs per game higher,
like you could have a very usable guy.
And and it's the kind of thing where it could like pretend you
pretend you knew with 100% certainty.
Like, hey, I, I got the game plan from Kellen Moore.
He says we're dropping Chuck back 45 times this game.
Like no, no ifs, ands or buts about it.
Like we're going to let him cook.
And you knew that and no one else knew that.
All of a sudden, like, and there's a big assumption you
have to make here. Like what if Chuck maintains a
suggested yards per attempt that he's sitting at right now
through his very small sample? I mean, shoot, then you have a
guy who is going to be priced super, super low where he should
be priced, you know, just very slightly lower than Dak
Prescott. Like, you know, more than
Michael Pennix, like right right around that Ranger.
It's like, OK, like this this guy could actually be something
for fantasy or at least has access to the ceiling.
So I think he's kind of interesting if you play it
through a like, I'm going to I'm going to play it before I see it
and I'm just going to play this as a volume up spot for the
Saints. I don't know how likely that is,
but he's at least like where where I was willing to go the
other way with JJ McCarthy. I'm like, I watch this guy, he
sucks and I'm just willing to thumb on the scale the other
way. At least with Shuck, we have
some reason for like optimism is even too strong a word.
But just like some reason to be like, maybe this guy isn't the
worst passer in the whole league.
And then the only thing that you're really hoping for is like
a little bit of variance in the volume that you get out of him.
And you know, the play caller there has shown willingness to
dial up that volume and like dial up that pass rate and you
know, they play fast. So like I think it's reasonable
to think that's in the range of outcomes and we just maybe we've
been seeing some lower volume games.
Yeah, I think they they played the Panthers this week who who
didn't question him at all. So they they like there was a
reason for them to not drop back that often this week.
But then again they got the the brakes beaten off them on the
other two games and there was still a pretty contained drop by
counter. Honestly my my big take away
from Shuck and Rattler being like pretty serviceable is kind
of like what happens when Kellen Moore gets a real boy QB.
Yeah. No, I think that's a good, yeah.
It's gonna it's probably a little bit like when Sean
Payton, he didn't get quite get a real boy QB, but he was able
to make Bo Nicks like a pretty good fantasy QB.
Whoever whoever the Saints drop this year is probably going to
be pretty good in fantasy our quarterback in my opinion.
Yeah, I think that's a that's a great call.
So you're you're buying low on a lave and dynasty then?
Oh, for sure, for sure. Yeah, for sure.
I I guess it's vindication that you should have been buying low
on a Lave all all offseason. Yeah.
And you're feeling pretty good. Obviously a lot of it's coming
off a nice week, so that's not contrarian or anything like
that, but it it is nice to see for the Saints.
The the last note I had on the quarterback chart here, I feel
like your your analysis you just gave on Chuck is a pretty good
answer to this, but I'll see if you got one more in the bag
here. But over we're over halfway
through the season on this chart, which Q BS fantasy
profile would you say is most misrepresented?
If you've got a a second one, you know, ready to go, I'll let
you start. But if you if you need a little
time to let 1 cook, I've got my. Yeah, yeah, you, you, you go
ahead and start and and I'll, yeah, I'll, I'll chime in
afterwards. I, I feel like I'm taking the,
the easy answer. I, I'm totally cheating with
this one. But Joe Flacco is, is the easy
answer for sure because so much of his adjusted yards per
attempt is getting dragged down from how bad he was with the
Browns and how bad the Browns were.
I mean, really we're, we're kind of seeing it.
I don't know. It's like the opposite to what I
just said of like the Browns suck.
They've dragged down the quarterbacks adjusted yards per
attempt. And, and, and if you want to get
really woke with it, maybe the take away is Dylan Gabriel might
not be as bad as he seems because, man, Jerry Judy is
exactly as bad as I've been saying he is for all these years
because that guy cannot catch a pass.
I mean, if you told me, if you told me that I'm going to die
and I have, I have to pick between Jerry Judy or Darnell
Mooney or Cadarius Tony to catch a pass.
I'm just saying, just put me out of my misery now because none of
those three are catching a ball thrown their way like I, it's
not even worth, you know, the, the fleeting moment of hope that
my life will be saved by one of these chuckle fucks because none
of those guys can catch a pass. And Dylan Gabriel is definitely
getting the short end of the stick.
They're having to watch his passes bounce off of Jerry, Judy
and and all the other losers he's throwing to minus Harold
Fannon. Harold Fannon is literally the
only bright spot in the Browns passing game.
And it's definitely going to be very, very evident down the
stretch here. I, I think, I think the Browns
know it too. They're just like, God, we
cannot, we just really can't throw it to anyone and expect
anything good to happen other than Fannon.
So, all right, I, I stole the easy answer.
With Flacco, though, it's it's just because we've got the two
teams mixed in there, but he should be much higher in his
adjusted yards per attempt. Right.
And, and so if you look at, if you look at his average over the
last four games, it's 8 adjusted yards per attempt.
So he'd he'd be up there right around like, you know better
than Mahomes, you know better than Justin Herbert, just
absolutely slang in it with with the highest volume, you know, in
the league, right, Crazy stuff. Right alongside like a Baker
Mayfield and and and still the highest volume because he's he's
chucking it with the the Bengals as well.
I guess the only thing I'm I'm assuming in your analysis that
you're you're saying that Joe Burrow saying he's going to be
back for week 14. He's full of shit.
He. He's not.
I don't know, man. I mean it it's pretty surprising
to me that they're even I mean, they're saying they're opening
it. Yeah, they they they're saying
they're opening the 21 day window for him, right.
So that I mean there's got to be some signal there, I mean.
Yeah, yeah. No, true.
We we've. Been talking about this, you
know, for this entire season of like how either these NFL teams
are just lying to us about everything.
I think the more charitable interpretation is that they're
humans just like us. And a lot of it is probably
coming from a place of misguided optimism or or, you know, being
way overly optimistic for their guys.
Like the for example, the Travis Hunter injury that was
definitely not season ending. He's maybe only going to miss,
you know, three more weeks after the first week.
But like even from the start, think about that.
He has a non contact knee injury in practice.
OK, so that's that's pretty bad. You know, as far as things go,
non contact knee injury, that's bad.
He hasn't had the exam yet. He doesn't doesn't get an MRI,
hasn't had like an official exam already on IR.
OK, that also seems also seems bad.
We have no idea about the actual nature of the injury other than
it's happened and we are going to get an exam.
Don't even bother waiting for the exam.
This guy's going on IR OK, also seems bad.
Immediately trade for Jacoby Myers at the deadline when
you're barely a contender, you're like you're you know,
you're a frisky, like could be a wild card team and you're like,
yeah, we got to got to put the chips in the middle for this
receiver even. Don't worry, though, our our
actual receiver, he'll be back in three games.
Like, it all just didn't really pass the smell test.
So you could interpret it as the Jags are lying the whole time.
I think the thing that's the most close to the truth though,
is they probably really, really wanted to come back, just like
people who had them on their fantasy team really, really
wanted to come back. Think of your own emotions on
your Travis Hunter teams. You're like, oh boy, if this
guy's back down the stretch, I could make some noise.
They're thinking the same thing, man.
And so I think that's probably, you know, and maybe there's a
little bit of lying, but but also like I want to give them
some benefit of the doubt. And so I think that's, if we're
looking at the Burrough situation, it's probably like
there's, there's definitely now a chance that he's back by what
he says he's targeting, but also like consider that he is looking
at that with the most rose colored glasses, you know, so
that's probably like his best case scenario.
And then the worst case scenario I still think is that he's not
back. He may never plays a game this
season. You know, like setbacks happen
all the time. You, you can, you know, I'm, I'm
sure it anyone out there who's had an injury that's, you know,
taking you out. Oh, you want to believe the the
best? Yeah, but if you've ever like
had an injury that prevented you from doing something physical,
you might feel great. And then you get out there and
you start doing the stuff and, and you get up to full speed and
it's like, oh, I'm not 100. Really thought I was 100%.
I'm not. That's a bummer.
And that stuff happens. So I I think the range is wide
with the Joe Burrow return is all I'm saying.
Yeah, yeah, I, I guess the only, the only one that I would say in
terms of adjusted yards per 10th maybe being disguised a little
bit would be Daniel Jones just with him taking more sacks, they
probably dial back his his drop back and attempts a little bit
as well with, with him taking heavy, heavy, heavy pressure.
So he's probably, I'd say trending back and backwards and
to to the left and down on this chart is probably probably the
the answer I'd give. Do you if you had to like
magically put you know you're relocating his his point on this
chart for the rest. I want to use my mouse but I
know it won't show on the. Oh, it's, it's showing.
I see it. OK, I'd probably put, I'd
probably settle him around here. OK.
So and and then like how that actually shakes out.
Sorry, he's still going to be a 7 or above in adjusted yards for
attempts, but he probably settles up like maybe 30 drop
backs a game and of those, maybe 25 of them are actually
attempts. So, so coming down, coming down.
So you'd like going forward, you would rather start Caleb
Williams over Daniel Jones in a like these long manage league?
I think that makes sense. Yeah, Yeah.
I think that's that's pretty fair.
Yeah. All right.
I think that's everything from quarterback.
Yeah, let's go to running backs here.
And I need to zoom out. So the the worst thing that
happened to me when it was when I was presenting, because that's
what I'm doing on this show, is somebody asked me to point out
something on a chart and I did it with my finger on my computer
that nobody else could see. And then I still have nightmares
about that. So and not not doing it this
time. That's that's good stuff.
Well, the first note I had and, and don't worry, you don't need
to point this one out with your finger.
Rico Dowdle, who you'd called out a couple weeks ago is, you
know, hey, this is the the trend is clear.
He's coming. He's coming for Chuba's job.
And I was I was agreeing with you, but thought it might not
get as extreme as it's gotten. And I'm I'm with you all the way
now. It's we, we talked about it last
week that it was like, hey, Rico fully iced chuba out and it
happened again and so over. The last two weeks we're talking
about 40 tree rush attempts from Rico to 8 from Chuba.
Yeah, Chuba, Chuba with a total of 10 opportunities, including
targets over the last two weeks, 4 opportunities and six
opportunities. Rico had 21 opportunities in the
last week. Right.
Forty, 4949 to 10 over the last two weeks since the coach made
those comments, like, yeah, we really like Chuba.
We really wanted to give him a chance to keep his job, but he
did not. Yeah, the job's gone.
I just, I wanted to point it out because I felt like if you play
DFS, it's probably easy to index the DFS result where you're
like, oh, man, Chuba was the chalk and he kind of failed.
And and I just wanted to make sure that people do like, or
excuse me, Rico was the chalk and he kind of failed.
It's like, yeah. But Rico's role is still
extreme. Like the Rico projection was
very good. You know, like, yeah, he
definitely should have been projected for as much as he was.
You know, it wasn't that, oh, we overestimated, you know, how
much Rico is going to get. Nope.
He he sure got it all again. So he's like a true bell cow
back. You know, we'll see him.
He's going to gradually move up this chart here.
He'll he'll probably land, you know, yeah, he'll land like in
the Josh Jacobs, you know, Saquon Barkley kind of range
there. Yeah, he's going to be, he's
going to be with a like if, if, unless we see a change to the
last two weeks, he's going to be right at the top in the, in the
top, in the top 4. So he'll be like his stock rate
is similar to Jonathan Taylor and Bijan and Genti like that,
that that's, that's where he has been the last two weeks.
So if he's not there and, and, and when we do the show in two
weeks, it's because they've dialed it back for Rico, which I
don't think they will. Yeah, I do think it's a it's
fragile going forward just because Rico has been has been
Rico Dowdle for his whole career.
And like he was good last season with the Cowboys, but got
limited opportunity and then now he's been good in small sample.
And you know, we see stuff like this where guys pop for a little
bit and it's it's not sustained. So it is fragile where it could
go backwards. But I'm with you where I think
it's most likely that it the trend continues here.
He he just has to keep playing, you know, to the role that he
has earned. So the however, the the thing
that did go backwards and and follows the nothing ever happens
rule DeAndre Swift business as usual.
You know, Kyle Manongai, very neato breakout game kid.
Enjoy your 7 carries just doing absolutely nothing against the
giants putrid run defense. DeAndre Swift.
I mean, just as like he is the better back of the two.
That's that's. Just it is funny that people
were pointing out last week that they're the same weight and it's
like, OK, well then maybe maybe January Swift is the same
weight. He's just faster, more dynamic,
more agile, more experienced, better pass capture.
Yeah, he's, yeah, they're the same way.
This guy's just the better guy. And then the team, the team
feels that way, too, as evidenced by their usage.
You know, it's not Swift wasn't even 100% healthy.
He like was, you know, question very legitimate questionable
coming into the game, like we were unsure if he would play,
you know, on Friday of last week.
We didn't know if he would play and they still were very happy
to load him up and and send Manon guy back to, you know,
just a a second or what kind of. Interesting is there's snap rate
weren't that weren't, wasn't that far apart.
So like it's 6040 when it comes to snap rate and but we're
talking 20 touches for opportunities to for Swift
versus 8 for Manon Guy. So they, they, they, they wanted
to guess with way more involved in the, in the receiving game
and, and then and that clearly worked out for him as well.
Yeah, I mean, Mononga is still a very, very, like you're not
cutting him anywhere. That's like he's like a premium,
premium handcuff, right. And and you know, there's
definitely going to be leads where you start him.
Yeah, because you're you just need a guy like that.
Right, Right. The breakout is Irving.
Oh, Marion Hampton teams. You're probably starting yeah
don't don't remind me our our main event team is so sad If if
just one of Bucky or Hampton could come back we we probably
would have a shot at the play offs.
Alas, we're we're drowning over here.
All right, the next note I had so I'd I'd heard people talking
about this player last week a little bit and I I felt like it
was important that we talk about him too.
I think it's, I think it's a thing that's kind of going under
the radar and I, I really just wanted your thoughts on it.
I didn't, I wasn't sure if my read on this was correct or not,
but I I want to pitch something to you.
So Josh Jacobs, you know, we get the island game last night where
we get to see him on display. And I mean, seeing the Packers
on display is just like just yuck.
Like this team looks dysfunctional on offense.
They have for a couple weeks, right?
I mean, they're not they're not really putting up a ton of
points. And Josh Jacobs like.
Did you see the social media stuff on Josh Jacobs on his
fourth down run? No, Uh huh.
Damn. So on on the four and one carry
for the game, I'm glad you're going to learn this on live for
the first time because they used a common call for their inside
zone. The the Eagles were actually
able to determine the play was coming.
Hey, it's an inside zone zone run this way, this way.
And they ran the play exactly the way the defenders were
calling it. And and, and Josh Shea, who was
asked about it was like, Hey, how does that feel?
And he's like, that doesn't feel good at all.
Like I, I changed, like I lost confidence to change how I
wanted to run. I, I kind of the one of the he
had to pitch it back because he's like, it's 14 one for the
game. Like, what do you want me to do?
And now that's why there's a column written about the Lafleur
is coaching for his job the rest of the year and stuff like that
is it's I to me where that kind of plays into what you're saying
is you you start to introduce some like systematic risk for
the offense. And he's a system offense, kind
of system slash offense dependent back where he doesn't
really not that he's immune to it, but he doesn't really create
the explosive place. He doesn't really like demand
targets and and and receiving work.
He needs the offense to be rolling for him to score points.
And you're talking about kind of like more of a 1A back at this
point. So I agree with where you're
going where this is more fragile than that, what we saw coming
into the year. OK, cool, that makes me feel a
lot better that I'm not on an island with that.
I was just I was looking at his peripherals and to be fair to
him, the peripherals aren't like bottom of the barrel, but
they're all, you know, middling to bad for for the most part.
He's he's got a couple things where you know, he's in the, you
know, top 15 of league, but he he's not he.
Breaks tackles. He's just not that explosive.
Right. Yeah.
And, and you know what? I'm I'm, I'm when I say he's
A1A, and that's probably being a little bit too harsh.
He he's better than A1A. He he is a starter, whatever
he's. He's getting, he's just the, the
thing to me that like highlights the fragility of him for fantasy
is he's getting so much volume and he's scoring a touchdown in
every game basically. Like if you go look at the Josh
Jacobs game log, it's like, oh, this guy just gets at least one
touchdown every game. And it's really easy to see how
that changes for the worse for him.
Where the Packers offense looks like it's looked and Josh Jacobs
just doesn't fall into the end zone.
Like, what if instead they either score no touchdowns or
what if there's a different person who scores the touchdown
rather than it being Josh Jacobs?
And and like when you're scoring A singular touchdown or two
touchdowns in the course of a game like the Packers offense
has been, it's kind of kind of hard to get there.
And a lot like if you if you look at Jacob's volume and say,
well, a lot of that is coming from them still being in these
games. Like if you get them into, you
know, really negative game script where he's kind of
scripted out and not able to get these, you know, 1820 carry
games. And where he's just able to like
chug along and, you know, accumulate fifty 60-70 yards.
It's like, yeah, I mean, the bottom can drop out here really
quick where all of a sudden you go from a guy who's putting up,
you know, very usable, like mid teen scores every week to a guy
who's not cracking double digits every week.
And so that's just one where it feels like the bottom.
Is some sixes and sevens in the card.
Yeah, the the bottom is, is ripe to drop out for Josh Jacobs.
Not saying that it will, but it's very much dependent on how
good the Packers are down the stretch.
And I, I think we're starting to see cracks in the Packers.
Yeah, yeah, agreed. Agreed.
And I guess a lot of it depends on how they bounce back from a
pretty tough prime time game. Yeah.
You don't want to overreact to them like having shit in the bed
against a great Eagles defense, but.
I want to overreact a little bit, it's more fun.
But it's, it's, it's, it's a big concern.
And then they have to and and there's like, it's, it's not
just A1 game. There's no they have some bad
losses on on their record. This you know, they lose to
Carolina, they lose to the Browns.
Like, yeah, this isn't this team is not they're not the team that
we thought they were after Week 1.
I'll say that you. Know right and they also they
have the confusing stuff where it's like hey, who does Watt in
your offense like like what what like why are you just mixing all
these guys? It it, it like would, would Sean
Payton, it kind of like he kind of pigeon holes guys based on
their skill set and and like does that very well, whereas
this one I'm a lot more kind of confused as to what's going on.
All right, we saved the best running back note for last.
You may want to go ahead and move to the backups chart to
talk about this guy and I think. Yeah, this is this is the one
where everybody wants to talk for most of the game about
Trayvion Henderson. Yeah, I think, I think I'll just
let you cook on this, on Draco. So I, I feel pretty, pretty well
vindicated. I think the one thing that we
kind of noted on the show was that, hey, this is a guy who's a
home run hitter. Don't get too in deep on the
success. That's the advanced stats on
small sample size and a home run hitter who hasn't hit home runs
yet. And then I guess what what do
you know, the home run hitters hits, hits the home runs.
I am, I guess I don't I don't try.
I try not to let kind of ball knowing stuff seep into my
analysis too much, but I did. I did actually watch a lot of
his carries this year and I, it looked to me like a guy who was
following his blocks very closely because he was terrified
that his coaches there would get mad at them if he didn't.
And so it, it seems like I, I mean, my impression here is, is
still, especially after we an Uber talented back who's got
problems with his coaching staff, his his coaches are
causing him problems. But who has he had a true genie
out of the bottle game where like he, he, he took them to
victory against the bucks in, in a big way.
So I, I, I'm, I'm very excited about Henderson going forward.
Yeah, I think, I mean, the way I'm kind of #1 like you're,
you're really happy to see that for a guy that you were so
excited about the profile coming out on.
I think it was a lot of the reaction in the fantasy space
was just really silly about Trayvion Henderson.
I think the more measured reaction, which is what I was
trying to have. But you know, you can, you can
flame away in the comments if I was too bullish or too bearish
one way or the other. I I don't really know how how I
was perceived on my Trayvion take there.
But I think you had to be less confident that he was good
through the 1st, you know, nine weeks of the season where OK, if
he really is that good, he probably earns more work sooner.
He probably has a better game sooner.
Like it's still possible that he's good, but your confidence
needs to have gone down substantially.
And then now you get this game where he he shows why he was
drafted so highly. He shows the explosion,
explosion that he has. To me, the way I'm kind of
indexing going forward is like, he's what we were really excited
about. You know how Kenneth Walker
looked when Kenneth Walker was having some of his better
seasons. Like, I think you can say he,
you know, probably fits that archetype reasonably well.
I think he's like Kenneth Walker who will also follow his blocks.
Yeah, like, yeah, maybe you don't have as many negative
points. He actually.
Played a little bit more like Kenneth Walker where he was, he
kind of bouncing runs to the outside just 'cause he's so good
at that. But he, I, I, he, he's obviously
determined to be on the coach's good sides like that.
That's very important to him. Like you, you saw the thing
where he's running off for a big touch sound and he's checking
with the coaches. Is it OK if I score?
Here I was cracking up at that. Man, that was so funny.
Like he acknowledged it in the press conferences.
Yes, that's what I was doing. Yeah, it's like I didn't want
Vrabel to hit me again. Please don't take my touches
again. But I yeah, I I think that's, I
think that's one where it like when reminder he comes back like
he's going to take some again, obviously, but like it's kind of
like it's the on for not unfortunate.
It's, it's the inconvenient truth for the coaching staff.
It's, it's just becoming overwhelming, I think and and
will be more and more overwhelming even when Romandre
is back. Yeah, I'm, I mean, I'm like
very, very pleased that we get this Henderson break out.
I don't want to like fully pour cold water on it.
But what I I want to have like a measured response here and say
if Romandre comes back, I would fully expect that the first game
that Romandre is back, we're probably pretty mad we're.
Probably pretty mad. Yeah.
No, I, I, I, I, I agree with you.
Where there, there. He he's immediately going to be
the starter again. I don't think, I don't think I I
still think it's it's genie out of the bottle where they don't
like think they can go back to like not giving him any touches
like I, I, I think that those days are gone and we're
obviously upset. But I still still think even
when reminder is back. Like he, he, he.
I'd still take Henderson takes it over by by like the end of
the year. Yeah, I think the chances of
Henderson being the guy who projects for more fantasy points
by, you know, Week 17 is very high.
Yeah, Yeah, really. I would take like, if we're
talking like playoff basketball, I'd take Henderson over
reminder. Like Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,
yeah, yeah. Easily you I mean, you want to
talk playoff. Best of all, there's a the
Patriots are are looking pretty interesting, Draco.
I mean, I, I bet you the market does not come around on the
Patriots number. There's a couple reasons.
Number one, none of their players project all that well.
Like when you know, when you're doing DFS every week, they're
like, you're not get, there's not a Patriots back that's in
the top 10 backs on the week as far as projection.
There's not a Patriots receiver that's in the top 20 receivers
on the week. You know, so you, you have all
these players with lower projection other than Drake.
May, who projects, you know, Yeah, the one thing I was going
to ask you about, So obviously Drake May is one of the front
runners now for MVP. Do you think that correlates
with his like a best ball playoff ADP at all?
What I've noticed in in playoff basketball is a big chunk of the
ADP is determined by the public perception of how, how likely
does the public think this team, you know, could win it all?
It's not even like, get to the Super Bowl.
It's it really does come down to like, Oh well, this.
Team, When I close my eyes, can I see the Patriots win the Super
Bowl? Yep, and for most.
People, the answer's no. Yes.
And I think that the market is just going to have a lot of
trouble getting there for the Patriots when they'll have AI
mean, you know, the, the Patriots have a strong
probability of getting the buy like, like, right.
The Patriots are, you know, I haven't looked at our, our most
recent playoff Sims, you know, for the updates on that.
But the Colts will be the first most likely team from the AFC
for a buy. And I'm pretty sure the Patriots
are #2. Right.
And they just edged out a very good Tampa Bay Bucks team as.
Well, yeah, and you get it. You get a Bill's loss, you know,
in division against the Dolphins.
Like there's there's a lot of stuff the arrow's pointing up
for the Patriots. And so I think you probably like
the linchpin to playoff basketball Patriots drafting is
can I get Drake May at a cheap enough cost and no one else,
none of the other players will have basically any cost
whatsoever. Like if you're the guy that
takes Drake May in the lobby, all the other Patriots are
yours. And I'm not saying like go in
there and slam Patriots every single draft.
That's not what I'm saying. But I do think they give you a
really interesting Ave. to be able to play stuff pretty
aggressively. I actually don't want to get
into it too much 'cause I think it's a like pretty massive edge.
I kind of want to protect exactly how to to capitalize on
that edge the most for for people that will, you know, be
paying money paying, paying for that content that we're going to
provide. So I'll, I'll, you know, stop
short there and say I, I do think the Patriots may in fact
be one of the skeleton keys to playoff basketball And and
Trayvon Henderson and Drake may will be one of the ways that I
want to attack that. But we'll, we'll leave it there.
I think we can move on to tight end now.
No, no, actually I don't think we can move on.
I think we have another rookie we have to talk about, OK and or
J Harvey. You're so right.
Because JK Dobbins seems like a likely candidate to go on IR now
and we should discuss Does that mean wheels up for OJ Harvey or
is it Jolil McLaughlin season? Get ready to add Audrey
Guestamay. You know, the Broncos are going
to call up Audrey Guestamay and RJ Harvey and Tyler Batty or the
day will be fighting for scraps. No, I think I think the most
likely outcome is its wheels up for RJ Harvey.
It would be very, it'd be very frustrating and very Sean Payton
for that to not be the case. But I, I do think that the most
likely outcome is that, I mean, this is we're setting up for
prime genie out of the bottle RJ Harvey spot.
Like, this guy's already been explosive and efficient and just
hasn't gotten a ton of opportunity.
And man, like the Broncos, the Broncos need help.
Like in a big, big way. Do they need help on offense?
Bonex is just, you know, pissing down his leg every week.
The receivers, like they're in trouble with pass catchers too,
'cause it's like, well, Sutton's not good enough to out earn Troy
Franklin as far as targets and Troy Franklin's not good enough
to actually catch the targets he's getting.
He's Ariard's champion, you know, and points for Ariards.
Troy Franklin's like a first round pick, but this guy can't
convert half of them to fantasy points.
And you know, I think I definitely think part of that's
Troy Franklin as I'm watching balls doink off of his chest.
Did you see the one that that doinked off his chest on
Thursday night? It.
Was Oh, I didn't see that one, no.
OK, so you know you know that if it could possibly be Bonex's
fault, I would tell you that it was probably Bonex.
It can't be his fault if it hit the receiver in the chest.
It was not. It was not only did it hit him
in the chest, he's running his, his chest is facing the
sideline, right? He's breaking out.
He's running to the sideline, the ball is so well placed it
hits him in the chest as he's. Bends around his body like one
of those bullets in the Matrix films.
Like it bends around. It it was just like it was a
perfectly placed, perfectly timed ball.
All credit to Bonex. And Troy Funk is running with
his arms outstretched like this. It goes right in between his
arms. Oh, I did.
See that? His chest?
Yeah, that. Brutal stuff, man.
That was bad. That's like a, you know, Oh God.
So, so you have all these problems where you don't have
anyone that is really I mean. They need a spark.
The offense needs a spark. They need someone, right?
And so RJ Harvey's like walking it.
You're in a a talent vacuum. You're here.
The offense needs somebody to do something.
And he he could be the ignition in the ignition to the rocket
fuel here. I I think it's a pretty fun time
to be drafting Trevion Henderson, RJ Harvey at the 5-6
turn. So all your 12th place teams
that have that combo of Trevion Henderson and RJ Harvey, they
might be destined for 8th baby, Yeah.
So the the older thing about those other players that you
mentioned, I'm going to I'm going to focus on Tyler Biddy.
But if you if you looked at since week 6, so week 6 and on
that's five games you have and you've 76 rush attempts for JK
Dobbins, you have 19 for or J Harvey, you have just one in
three games for Betty. And then McLaughlin only won
rush attempts as well. So like if they wanted to get
more carries for baby, I think they would have done it.
Like they're obviously perfectly willing to give them the long
down this and stuff. And I, I, I don't think the, I
don't think the Broncos have much interest in establishing A
tolerability or, or McLaughlin for that matter.
So like I, I, I do think Harvey is getting like a prime, prime
work share in in the next couple of games.
Yeah, we we can. We can only hope I do.
I do feel bad for poor JK Dobbins too.
The guy like can't stay healthy then he gets hip drop tackled.
I don't know if you saw the he he tweeted bam the mother
fucking hip drop tackle. Like yes go off king.
Like if there's anyone that deserves to have righteous anger
about something not getting injured, it's JK Dobbins.
Like that dude deserves so much better than the run out that he
got for his professional career. Like God, what could have been
for JK Dobb. I mean think of like to even
still be in the league after all the you know, multiple acls,
like multiple knee injuries. He's got the Achilles like to
stay in the league. What what even was this guy at
his peak? Like God, what could he have
been? That's such a bummer.
I feel I really feel bad for Dobbins.
He's I I like him a lot. He's a player.
I wish him the best. Yeah, that's it sucks.
It sucks he'll be back, but it it sucks for sure because he's
obviously he's earned everything that he's gotten as.
Well, yeah, yeah, nothing's been given to him, that's for damn
sure. All right, let's go on a tight
end now. OK, here we go.
I was going to say that it's it's fitting that you were
struggling to get onto the tight end chart here because the first
note that I have is is one that I anticipate you're not going to
enjoy talking about. But I have the IT was fun while
it lasted guys with Brock Bowers and Coulson love.
Yeah, I think you're a little premature on Bowers.
I I am I'm I'm overreacting because it's more fun that way.
But Loveland, I agree with you. I was wrong.
I I thought that they would. I thought they would see that
Loveland was the was the guy you need.
I don't. Understand how they didn't and
honestly what's Cole command? I really don't no why is Cole
command out there Loveland, by the way, like if you watch this
game, Loveland look good and and you know when they used it, he
looks great. It's like.
It's like 56% rate for Loveland, 49% for Cole Command, 17% target
spread run for Loveland, 10% for commit, and then Loveland is
getting a 10 1/2 A dot command is 6 1/2.
Like I, I, I, I don't know, dude.
Like, like he's the good guy. Yeah, What do you want?
It's it's pretty frustrating because it does really seem like
Ben Johnson is is pretty hard. Oh, about like you need to if if
you know the scheme and you've got your, you know, PS and QS
straight like like what's what's alumni Zacchaeus doing out
there, man? What's alumni Zacchaeus doing?
Like he's just, he's literally out there just dropping passes,
like dropping touchdowns that that's.
Zacchaeus and DJ Murr are just like massive.
Massive and commit are just like massive step weights on the back
that the rest of the offense has to carry.
You know what would be really funny and like the most comical
way for me to be wrong? What if they finally start
involved like burdens out there with an 80% route share?
You know, Loveland's out there with a, you know, 70% route
share and all of a sudden Caleb Williams looks there's no more
Caleb Williams down games. It's just all Caleb Williams
ceiling game. I I I feel like that's pretty
possible. It's like it was just the
shitters, the whole. Time I've happened to carry DJ
Moore, Zacchaeus and Cold Command, like I mean with
DeAndre Swift cooking like I, I, I, I I I really feel strongly
that the offense will look a lot better when they feature their
their good players. I I agree with you.
And I'm very frustrated about it.
No, it's it's very frustrating. I think you're, I mean, with a
lot of the rookies that where you've seen stuff now where it's
like, so what's what's the rationale for why we're not why
we haven't used this guy more, why we're not using this guy
more going forward? Like you see it with Travion
Henderson, we see it with Colson Loveland, Luther Burden and his
limited usage also looks very good.
Looks the part like. You know who's incredible?
Do you Do you know who Luther? Burden, just guy, just stuff.
He's like winning down the field.
He's winning on like intermediate routes.
Do you know who he kind of reminds me of?
No, he, he reminds me a little bit of Jameson Williams.
Oh, OK. Like he's, he's probably, he's
like more shifty in, I mean, Jameson Williams, a lot of his
stuff when he gets the ball in his hands, it's just like, I'm
very fast. Luther.
Luther Burden has like a little bit of that.
What I think about when I think about Luther Burton in space is
I think about Garrett Wilson in space and I go back to like I
have, I have a couple Garrett Wilson players just like maybe
he is a little bit. Of a Garrett Wilson type player.
Isee.com a lot better than Jameson.
He he, I just, he also has like that he just, he reminds me a
little bit of like early career Jameson where like we could see
like there's a pretty good receiver over there.
Like he's not getting used or anything.
You know he's right. There just running this guy can
play. But like, I'm watching him win
routes. It's like that dude's open, by
the way. Like could we could we maybe
consider him? And so but yeah, I when I think
about and, and watch Luger Burden and, you know, compare
him to Garrett Wilson. There's this rookie year Garrett
Wilson play where he catches a pass and he's running in space
and he just hits the absolute nastiest dead leg on a guy where
like any other. If I do the same movement that
Garrett Wilson does, like all of the all of the connective tissue
in my hips just explodes and it never recovers.
You know, like he's just out there and like fully shifts his
weight from one leg to another without like losing a single
step. And just like hangs a leg out
there for a defender to die. It's truly disgusting stuff.
And you kind of see like that same dynamism with Luther brain.
So yeah, it just feels like the Bears are not really interested
in playing their best players yet.
But I wanna I wanna have optimism that they get there and
I guess all they can really do is keep flashing and and at
least the thing you can say about Loveland is he looked
good. It's not like he went out there
on, you know, yeah, less snaps and looked bad.
Then it's like, oh, maybe it was the fluke one game.
It's like, no, he still looks like the dude you should be.
Right. He's looked good all year.
Yeah. And it's just, yeah, that that's
a better situation. Then he's barely playing or he's
not playing as much as they want.
And it's like, is he even that good?
At least that at least we'll feel good that he he, he is
good. I I think we're like taking.
Up players that are good and and and potentially not good.
I think that's a good Segway through your to your next note.
Oh, yeah, the I, I titled this one We need to talk about
Dalton. And you might be saying, which
Dalton do we need to talk about? And I think we need to talk
about both Dalton's. We need to talk about Dalton
Schultz, who's on this chart, and we need to talk about Dalton
Kincaid, who hasn't cracked the starter tight end chart like the
whole damn season. So I've got a fun stat for you.
Here's the last four-game splits for Dalton Kincaid versus Dalton
Schultz. And I'm gonna, I'll read them
without them being attached to the names.
I mean, I'll mix them up. You don't know who I'm talking
about here first. I'm looking at the stats so you
won't fool me, but. Well, I'm gonna fool the
listener. I'm gonna fool the listener.
So one of these guys has 15 receptions for 269 yards and one
touchdown over the last four games.
So, you know, averaging just under 70 yards a game.
Gets a touchdown every, you know, four games or so and 4/4
receptions or so a game. The other one has 24 receptions,
252 yards and one touchdown. So, you know, a little over 60
yards a game, about 6 receptions a game, averaging 1 touchdown a
game. So they're pretty close.
But the one with the the better fantasy points over this time is
in fact Dalton Schultz with the 24 receptions.
And and really the point of this is not to shit on Dalton
Kincaid. He's actually been very
efficient just on limited snaps. But it's, it's to highlight that
Dalton Schultz is pretty usable. Like he is very much a viable
fantasy streamer right now. He's getting lots of targets
lately. I think part of it is that the
Texans just don't really have their passing game figured out
before we go. On Dalton Schultz, can I yeah.
Can I just shit on Dalton Kincaid?
Yeah, absolutely. He's always so he's.
You would think that Dalton Kincaid is the is the tight end
route leader in the last four games, but he is not.
Dawson Knox is the route leader in the last four games in for
tight ends for Buffalo. Now Kincaid has more targets and
and and area yards and actual yards and stuff like that.
But this is like a full blown tree way committee where it's
44% routes for Knox, 41% for Kincaid, and then 28% for
Jackson. Haws like you like you can
forget about Buffalo tight ends for any else on that then
showdown this year. You you can forget about Buffalo
pass catchers, brother, You can forget about there.
There's two players on the Buffalo offense that matter for
fantasy football. It's Josh Allen and James Cook
and no one else does a damn thing.
And I, I think that's going to be pretty important come playoff
best of all time too, where you really can just play the bills
through one or both of those players and, and kind of just be
set on bills and like, you don't really have to take any other
bills, you know, like you can. I, I think you're really just
tacking them on though, for like this is when I get to the Super
Bowl, this guy is going to be helpful.
But I, I think I think it's going to be a really easy trap
for people to slam teams with like 6 bills on them so you can
get them all cheap. You know, you, you take, you end
up with a, a Josh Allen, James Cook, right?
And then you wait and you draft other players and then you're
like, and my last four picks are all the Bills, Khalil Shakur,
Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, and I'll throw in, you know,
Dawson Knox or Tyrell Shavers or whatever shit you want to do.
I'm pretty sure that's bad. I'm pretty like normally I'm all
for just onslaughting A-Team like that.
I think with the Bills where there's you're just not, there's
no ceiling among all those guys. Like you're just getting so many
zeros onto your team every week where it's like they're just not
going to provide useful scores. Like you might catch one useful
score out of the bunch there. And I, I just think you're going
to end up like tanking a bunch of what could otherwise.
And you're going to be drawing dad as if you're, if you're 5 in
your Super Bowl lineup is all Bills.
You're probably drawing dad to the guy who has all the NFC
pieces. Yeah, that's a great point.
But yes, that was that was excellent shitting on Dalton
Kincaid. Yeah, I, I do think that the the
take away and and to give a little bit of charity to Dalton
Kincaid here, he does leave his most recent game with a
hamstring injury early. He did did get some targets
early in that game. So it's not like we threw a zero
in that, you know, 4 game sample to to drag it down, but.
Dalton Schultz is definitely the the thing that I wanted to
highlight there, that he's a. Yeah, yeah.
So he's in the last four games, he's the 77% route rate, 22%
targets per run, 6.8 A dot for 217 area yards and 32 targets.
So pretty, pretty serviceable and, and he's had a, a little
bit of look on the run out with all the injuries to the other
tight ends. I don't necessarily know if
that's impacted his, his, his snap rate too much, but it's
probably helped him a little bit on the targets.
And it's like, oh, well, shit. I guess if we want to drop a, a,
a tight end target here, it's it's got to be Schultz.
Yeah, that, that makes sense. All right.
The last tight end note I had Juwan Johnson, pretty big
benefactor here from the Shaheed trade, it looks like looks like
he is going to be the one that really benefits the most from
all those vacated targets. The the Tyler Shucks shower
narrative, you know, coming into full effect.
Yeah, I I think it's, you know, pretty short and sweet here.
JA Juan Johnson, definitely back on the menu is a very viable
fantasy tight end. Yeah.
And yeah, I honestly don't think that like I think he's kind of
the same as he was a little bit his his his Tiger Spirit run is,
is right around 20 and that's where it's been this year.
He obviously he had the great game and because Shook had this
good, good game. But I, I think, I think these
outcomes are very much in play, have been in play from are in
play. So I, I agree with you.
He's on the menu. I, I think that he, he, I, I, I
think he, he's, he's kind of just as on the menu as he has,
has been this year. OK, Yeah, I think it's a little
bit of a boost for him, but that's that's fair to.
Yeah, yeah, it probably helps the floor like before in week, I
think it was week 9 where Shaheed led the team in targets
on like a good attempt week for the Saints.
And so you take those outcomes out of the games like I don't, I
don't, I don't necessarily know if the ceiling goes up much and
but the floor where where you want to get a handful of
targets, I think that you won't see games like that.
That's fair. All right, Let's move on to the
wide receiver charts here. And cursory look over the tight
ends that we don't care about and correct, we do not care
about these guys. Yeah.
I didn't have a ton of those. These are.
So we have that.
Yeah, we have, I guess, pretty frustrating usage for A.J.
Brown that that that's your first kind of note where he's
just not getting the targets that you want.
And whenever they've been on prime time, it's it's always
been like, hey, he's open. Like why, why, why aren't you
trying to A.J. Brown?
And it does seem like he he's having similar frustrations.
So maybe maybe I don't, I don't, I don't want to like project or,
or, or make stuff up. But it, it does seem like
there's some toxicity there that's impacting his receiving
production this year, which is very frustrating.
I cannot wait for the New England Patriots to trade for
A.J. Brown in the offseason.
Yeah, they should. So he's had two big games and he
had the big game in Week 6 and then he had the big game in week
3, but then just very quiet otherwise.
And I don't, I don't know, I don't know what to do with that
and. I mean, it's, it's been
happening long enough now that I think we've got to take it as
like this is the new. Yeah, the transient, yeah.
Like he's he's approaching this wind sprinter, you know,
quadrant here down down here with guys like Jerry Judy and
Jacoby Myers, DJ Moore, Jamo, like, yeah, not doesn't seem
great. I had man, I have notes on all
wind sprinters. I mean to I just feel like a lot
didn't change for other guys on the chart.
But we did have some changes here, although this one isn't a
change. I can be pretty quick with this.
Darnell Mooney stinks. You just, you set his projection
to 0 every week you're playing DFS and Darnell Mooney's in your
player pool. He's got a projection.
You just take that shit straight to zero.
I I've watched this guy enough now since he's been back.
It's showdown. It's like.
If it's if it's a showdown slate, what incredible edge
because he will be so played in, you know, like normally Darnell
Mooney's gonna be like a couple percent owned, you know, most
weeks in a in a main slate. But shit, you get Darnell Mooney
on a showdown. You take that sucker to 0 and
that's a print money button, baby.
You're gonna twenty, 3040% of the field's gonna be playing
Darnell Mooney. Maybe you don't take him to 0 on
showdown, but I mean, damn, man. Like he he legitimately is
having Jerry Judy level problems catching the ball like he he is
dropping everything. Like there's he did have one
pass where it was like, OK, that was a hard like how are you
gonna catch that? That's pretty tough.
You know, if he catches, it's spectacular.
But he also made it look way more difficult than it actually
was. Like the ball's like a little
high in, in front of him, but he like, rather than just
continuing to run and like getting both of his hands up, he
like leaps, right? Like, and it wasn't really a
leap. It was like a, I've got a
weighted vest on and I'm trying my hardest to get off the
ground. You know, like he, he maybe got
like 6 inches off the ground. Like, it looked, it made the
pass look impossible to catch, but I think there's a lot of
receivers where they're in that exact same spot and they make a
a very acrobatic effort. And it looks like, oh, wow, that
would have been a really hard catch.
But, you know, at least there was a chance.
Yeah. Journal needy was like never.
And catch is one of them, that's why.
It's bad stuff. He yeah, a a lot of the drops
were just like straight egregious shit too.
Like I'm, I was trying to give, you know, the the one where it's
like maybe you could. Interpret a little and Week 8 he
had four targets, only caught one of them.
And then, yeah, he's, he's had a lot of, he's had a lot of weak
games, a lot of weak games. He stink.
Weak, weak tree. He got 10 targets and only
caught four of them. Like, yeah.
That's rough. That's what the last guy that I
wanted to talk about on this chart, also in the wind sprinter
quadrant, but things are looking up for this player.
It's Jameson Williams, who only needed Dan Campbell to take over
play calling duties and force feet in the ball against a bad
Washington defense to have a good game.
I I'm curious, I think, I think we probably see this a little
differently. So I want to get your take on
how sticky you think this Jamo, you know usage change is going
to be going forward. Well, let me start with where we
agree. We agree that the that the main
reason that Dan Campbell took over was because Jameson will
they, they just weren't able to get the ball to Jameson
Williams. Like they, they, they talked all
offseason about making a priority.
They paid them the big contract. The, the offensive coordinator
was like, yes, I understand that.
My job is to get Jameson Williams more the ball more and,
and they were failing on that. And, and so Dan can will took
that over and immediately they, they were successful in getting
Jameson the ball. I, I mean, I, I, I, I do, I do
think that he's a capable enough player that that if somebody, if
somebody is a creative play caller and a competent play
caller, it's like it's doable. You, you, you, you, you can get
him the ball and it will be efficient and it will work like
not like, it's not like the only way to get Jameson William
target is to truck at 30 yards down the field and, and it's
prayer yards. I, I, I, I think that this is
kind of a pretty notable thing where they're, they're, they're
going to be getting him more involved with like crossers, the
comebacks and, and, and, and using his speed in more creative
ways than just a stretch defense.
Yeah, I, I actually, I agree with you.
I think we probably agree more than, you know, when we're, when
we're typing in our our rankings chat and you know, we've got the
Jamo Bulls versus the Jamo Bears.
It it does there's quite a dichotomy there.
But I think we're actually a lot closer on this.
I think it's meaningful for his usage that, you know, Dan
Campbell is able to call plays in a way that gets in the ball
outside of just these scheme touches.
You know, it's it's things where he's running more diverse routes
where it's actually going to be stuff that's useful to the
offense to to throw him the ball.
The part because like my my argument against like why, you
know, Jameson Williams is overdrafted for best ball or
things like that was never about a Jameson Williams talent
problem. Like he's very talented.
I think he's a really good receiver.
You know, it, I think a couple years ago on this show, I
explicitly said Jameson Williams is the most talented receiver on
the Lions. So I, I, you know, I don't think
it's. You've got a lot of shit for
Dodd as well, yeah. I know it's so it really comes
full circle. I was I was the Jamo Bowl when
it was not cool to be the Jamo Bowl.
And now I'm the Jamo Bear and and the Jamo Bear case is more
coming from when the rubber meets the road and the Lions are
in games where they've they've absolutely got to have it.
Is Jamo going to be the one that you dial up?
Like we absolutely need this play.
It's a muscle win. It's third and four.
Is it Jamo? Is it Amanraw?
Is it Jamere Gibbs, Is it Laporta?
And I, I just think that I think very highly of all of those
players. And so I just think that it's
very easy to be the odd man out. And when you get a price as
expensive as Jameson Williams has had and, and you know,
you're, you're setting this level of production that you
need from this guy, it becomes really, really difficult to
achieve that in the face of all the competition that you have.
And, and even even if he's, you know, on par with almond raw,
like even still like you, you have so many other guys that are
fighting and vying for these targets where even if he gets to
a place where he's more usable in fantasy, like your, your
ceiling is going to be a little bit more muted because again,
you just you have other guys that are very, very good
competing with you for opportunity in this offense.
So I think going forward, you probably see a meaningful shift
for him in the way of like maybe not even in the way of, of
targets, but like the, his ability to convert the targets
that he's getting into catches. Because a lot of the, a lot of
the targets he's getting earlier in the season was just like,
like you said, it was Prairie yards.
So, but it, it would surprise me if what you saw last week as the
new normal where it's like, oh, Jamo just gets 100 yards in a TD
every game. Like I, I don't think that's
happening, but I I'd expect it, you probably have a better
chance of it happening for the back.
Half season than it was before. Yeah, but I, I don't think it's
like, oh, every other game is is, you know, Jamo 100 yards in
a TD. So I, I think we're a lot closer
than I initially thought, but I, I think I probably see it not
quite as bullish as. You do, but we, we see it as an
improvement. I, I did like project like a
very crude projection for him where he said I think he's going
to catch like he's going to get like 5 targets a game.
He's going to catch four of them and it's going to average like
65 yards and he's going to catch a touchdown 2 out of three
games. And, and, and maybe, maybe maybe
that's, that's too optimistic, But I, I, I do think he's got
pretty strong touchdown equity. And, and that came out to me for
what, 14 points a game without any DK bonuses as a projection.
And he scored, he scored about 10 or 11 so far this year,
including week 10. So it's like it, like you said,
meet meaningful increase, but where you drafted him in
basketball is like you were hoping for like 17/18/1920 which
that that that's not don't don't expect that to be in the Kurds.
Yeah, I think, I think you probably like as far as what
does Jameson Williams project for, you know, going forward, I
bet you get projections in the neighborhood of like this very,
you know, his next game he's not going to project for more than
12, but I think. Probably, yeah.
In terms of like other people doing projections, I'm doing
like this is what I think he'll average over the rest of the
season. I think he's going to average 14
points a game. Yeah, I I think he probably ends
in like the 12 to 13 range over the rest of the season.
That's probably where projections get to, but it
probably takes a couple weeks for them to it's going to take
it. It'll require him having some
semblance of, you know, increase target share and and converting
those. Targets, but I mean he like he's
on he's he's already averaging 11.
Like I think that the shift is more than like a fantasy point
the game like I think it's like a good like at least at least
tree. Yeah, I mean, he he was
projecting for like 10-11, you know, previously.
So I think I think getting him up to like 1213 is, is probably
around where he ends. But yeah, so we're, you know,
the fact that we're we're about a point apart means that we're a
lot closer than we are apart, right, Right.
And I think the the big picture take away is this is a positive
for Jameson Williams going forward.
The real the real question in ambiguity is just how much.
Yeah. Is that I think that was the end
of earn notes for this one. And the only the only one I want
to ask about was like is Zay Flowers kind of like a good buy
low because he's he's not really been hitting on the touchdown,
but obviously he's like a really important player for the Ravens.
His usage has been like a little bit weird where you, you open up
41% tires per run, 34% you, you get like a 9%.
Then you get like a Lamar injury and, and he hasn't really hit in
a big way since early on in the season.
Well, a big part in because he hasn't scored a touchdown and
they kind of beat the brakes off the, the Dolphins like they were
well ahead against the Vikings. I, I, I feel like that's a
pretty good prime regression spot.
Positive regression spot for for zay flowers.
You, you don't have to tell me twice.
I am, I'm always happy to, to be betting on Zay Flowers and and
betting on Lamar. So I'm I'm into it.
And so now, now we can. Now we can move on.
Man, this is so funny. We've got Rashi and Puka just
breaking the chart. And just smashing all these
scrubs, the I. Say it every week.
I know I say it every week. Yeah, but so your, your your
first note was about Troy Franklin just taking over.
He, he, he's giving Cortland Sutton the I am the captain now.
Yeah, I, I mean, it sure seems like it, you know, Franklin
definitely seems to be the one in the offense now.
I mean, we talked about his his issues with actually converting
that into fantasy points. And, and we'll, we'll talk about
converting receiving area yards like so like if, if I look at
his last four games, his receiver area yard conversion is
32%, but those area yards on, and I'm going to start in week
7A172122198133 Tiger spray run 24 percent, 31 percent, 26
percent, 33%. That's pretty like.
That's pretty strong usage. Yeah, it's it's the dangerous
combination of Troy Franklin not really being able to catch and
Bonex not really being able to throw.
So when you when you mix that together, you get absolute
bottom of the barrel efficiency as far as converting those air
yards. But man, if they could figure if
just one of them could figure out their end of the job, you
probably probably have something pretty exciting on your hands
here. Yeah, your your bi, Yeah, your
bi low models are probably popping on on that usage.
Yeah, for sure, yeah. For I, I, I'm willing to, you
know, as much as I should on Bonex.
I, I'm willing to, you know, to, to buy in on this and say, I
mean, it's even even if it's not talent driven, even if it's just
like, hey, they get lucky. What like there's there's.
They are 14. This guy the ball.
Yeah, regression doesn't just have to happen because, you
know, your players are, you know, they've they've been
getting unlucky and and now they're gonna, you know, run
neutral. Like your players could be
getting neutrally lucky, but then they could get more lucky.
And then you could have, you know, some positive regression
here. Like it literally just could be
that, you know, the wind blows an Aaron Bonex pass, you know,
into into Troy Franklin's waiting outstretched arms and.
Bonex just has some big games. Yeah, it's very possible for
issues very, very possible for this to explode.
Right, right, if he has a big game.
It seems more than likely that it's gonna be true at Troy
Franklin. And and, like, the absolute
ceiling here seems pretty crazy, right, When you think about
like. So we agree.
Yeah, I I mean, when you when you think about like how big a
game you can really have when you're getting these air yard
totals that Franklin's having, like if they do run pure one
week and they just couldn't they happen to convert most of the
the opportunities like you're talking, you know, easily 100
yard games and a touchdown for Troy Franklin.
So he's he's an in two. 100 yard game.
Yeah, yeah. And so, yeah, that's that's
definitely. A fun one was was that's fun
about the the Seahawks and. Yeah.
You're you're. Go ahead.
The I, I mean the the thing that like you can still hold out hope
on for this one. So I wanted to bring up the
Rashid Shaheed Cooper Cup. Tori Horton kind of snap shares
here. So the Cooper cup active, you
know, he's back and playing. I think he ends up with some
somewhere around 50% of the total snaps.
So not a not a season high by any means, but also not he's had
weeks where he's been that low before.
So it wasn't a low. Tori Horton was inactive and the
injury stuff around Horton was a little strange to me because he
was active on Wednesday last week and practiced in full.
Then he gets designated with a shin injury and and is inactive.
I'm wondering like was it really a was it actually an injury and,
and he had to be inactive because of the injury or was he
just a little banged up? And it's like, well, we just.
He's a he's a major return for him, isn't he?
Yeah, yeah, they've been using it in their return game, but I,
I just. Wonder if a big time special
teams player for them? Let me let me pull up his
special teams snaps. Yeah.
I, I, I could, I could just be totally, Yeah, making that up.
No, I think you're right. I think he has been doing kick
returns and stuff. Pot yeah, he's been doing pot
returns. He yeah, he's been there pot
return. But yeah, I, so I'm, I'm not
sure how much of the injury was like, hey, he's actually injured
or it was, hey, he's a little banged up and we've got Rashid
Shaheed now anyway, so it's not that big a deal to make Tori
Horton an active. That's the one to watch.
I I think the most likely thing is that he was, he was actually
injured, but I just don't know how injured and it, it scares me
a little bit that they might just totally shelf this guy now
with the, the Shaheed trade. But that's that's the one to
watch for sure. And yeah, yeah, we, we went in
depth in the on that last week. And but it's probably hard, it's
probably hard to tell too much. And given the weekend and like
you said, we had, we had an injury and designated active for
Horton, I guess it the only I see is so they you had a 62%
route share for Shaheed in his first game.
He only got, he only got what one target on that on that route
share. You got 2 targets for Cooper Cup
and then six targets for JSN and honestly that was a bit of a
strange game for. Yeah, they're just stomping a
mud hole in the in the Cardinals for that game, so.
Yeah, yeah. Anybody else you wanted to talk
about here? I think the last few guys are
all on the final chart here. Yeah, yeah, the final chart I
think is pretty interesting this week, at least to me.
Oh man, what a what a what a beautiful chart.
Yeah, we'll, we'll start with the one that's easy to see.
We've got a demotion, Draco demotion in week 10, Keenan
Allen down to the 40 to 70% routes run chart.
Not, not a great look for him. He's just seeing his usage
plummet week over week. You get the Gadsden injury, It's
a, you know, I believe it's a quad bruise.
So he's day-to-day. But it's again, we talked about
this last week. It's not just Gadsden.
Trey Harris is eating into the work, too.
So. I think it was 60% Rd. share,
which is the highest it's been since week 7.
So week since week seven, week 7 was 75% then you get 50 percent,
54 percent, 60%. It like that coming off the back
where he was consistently in the high 70s like you, we, we we've
been talking about this the last couple weeks, but very
pronounced clear decline in rounds for came to that one.
He also doesn't get much of the way it targets this game.
I think he only gets 2 and the second target.
Oh he gets 4I apologize. And one of the ones just like
was a was a make a wish target. It was a make a wish to get him
over the the franchise receptions record.
Yeah, I was going to say that I don't know if you saw.
So he gets that target right. They do the there's the whole
shindig. They announce it, you know, a
pass. Antonio Gates, he goes the
sideline. Everyone's dapping him up.
He takes the helmet off and he's like just on the sideline.
The game's in hand by the way. They're just like killing clock
at this point, but someone has to come and get him on the
sideline. They're like, dude, you're we
need you out there. You're supposed to be in there
this play and I was like, why? Why are you even making the
game's over? You're just trying to kill clock
at this point, but he like has to scramble and find his helmet.
He runs out there just to run. I was confused why they're even
getting him out there. Just like you're just run
blocking at this point. What do you why does?
King, get the young guys involved.
But they they make Keenan go find his helmet and get back out
there on the field just to take a run blocking snap.
I thought that was it was just funny.
It was funny to watch. They like take him out of the
game. He's like, you know, basking in
his moment. They're like, get your ass back
out there. We need you to run block.
OK, dude. Yeah, that is a little a little
strange and. There's the other guy, I.
Wanted to talk about was in terms of like like real or fake
breakouts. We got a 70, sorry, A7 target
game for Jayden Higgins and that's 100 area yards.
It was just a 53% route rate, heavily targeted, so 27% targets
per run heavily targeted. What was his A dot?
His A dot was 14. So he ends up with 100 area
yards and then it ends up being an OK fantasy week.
So I guess 42 yards and I think he caught a touchdown as.
Well, he gets, yeah, he gets in the end zone at the end of the
game. Yeah, I guess that that's it,
that's encouraging increase in usage.
But he's still like I I guess he's he's he's number three
behind Hutchinson. Like so he's ahead of Christian
Kirk, but still that I guess still still more of a on the
watch list rookie than than anything else.
Yeah, it's, it's frustrating, man.
You just you would think that they'd just yoink Hutchinson and
Kirk and let these two rookies cook because the rookies have
looked good. Higgins.
I'm like, jury's out for me on Higgins.
I don't know if I've seen enough to be like, Oh yeah, he's really
good. Like he looks serviceable when I
see him, but I'm not I I think Noel looks better.
To be honest. I maybe I have a bias for Jalen
Noel, but that's that's my read on it.
But the Texans just seem to not really care who is good or who
is bad. They just have this preconceived
notion of like, these are the guys that we use.
We use Xavier Hutchinson. We use Christian.
Kirk there's another team that when they actually get their
good players in Baltimore, the offense is going to be a lot
better. Yeah.
Like when when you have the offenses at Nico Collins, it's
Jalen. No, it's Jaden Higgins like it
it. They'll still have their
offensive line issues, but it's going to be it's going to be a
lot better. Man, drafting Texans pass
catchers is going to be really frustrating next year because
you're probably going to get Tank Dell back, right?
And then it's, it's just going to be so ambiguous.
Yeah, that's frustrating. I mean, he's so ambiguous.
How much how much does tank Dell have left to give?
Like that's like a true could never play again injury.
As well. No, Yeah, it was a brutal
injury, yeah. So and and also you have no
confidence in the Texans. Like even if you were very
confident in your ability to evaluate the talent of the
players, you have no confidence in the Texans ability to to give
the snaps to the most talented players.
So right I mean. I, I, I would very strongly
project a big uptick in usage for, for their sophomores next
year. The the two guys we're talking
about it, it, it would just be a question of like, can they
figure out their protection issues?
They're off online. Like, are we going to get
another year where the offense just isn't functional again?
Yeah, One other guy that I think you you wanted to talk about,
Tez Johnson also, you know, has a has a decent game, you know,
against the Patriots in a, you know, a wide receiver room that
definitely needs someone to step up while they wait for Chris
Godwin to get back. What what do you think about him
going forward? Is this something where is it
going to be sticky? Is, I mean I think a big chunk.
Of it the usage is sticky. Yeah, that's I guess depends on
injury. Godwin comes back he's he Tess
Johnson goes out. But since I'm starting in week 6
here and so he's had 84% rats, 74 percent, 96 percent, 87%
rats. And like his target spread run
isn't amazing. If I, if I do an average on
those weeks at 17%, which is not amazing, but is pretty usable.
And then his, his average Sept of his a dot tends to be pretty
high. His, his yard, his yardage is
like in the 40s and 50s and you kind of need a touchdown to get
there on that yardage. But I don't know.
I, I, I think that's kind of interesting.
It's probably not the best DFS play.
It's probably like a very cheap min min salary play.
It's probably somebody who you start in your home league.
If, if you've been devastated about injuries, you kind of hold
your nose and you're, you're, you're talking like Tez Johnson
or Parker Washington kind of stuff.
But that, that's kind of how I but I just saw that he he had a
decent fantasy week and and he's playing a lot for them.
So I, I, I felt weird. We're calling out.
Yeah, I think that's a good, good shout out.
I think that your path to like your your true upside case for
Tez Johnson, even with Godwin back, is that he displaces, you
know, the, the three receivers that are out on the field are
Ibuka, Godwin and Tez Johnson and he displaces Sterling
Shepherd, right, which which I definitely could see, you know
where you get Godwin in the slot and Sigbuka and Tez working
outside. I think that's your, you know,
your ceiling outcome where he ends up, you know, sticking
around as the wide receiver 3 for the Bucks, which definitely,
I think definitely possible. He's played well so.
Yeah, and he he's crushing Sterling Shepherd in rats as
well. Like they're playing Taz more
than Sterling Shepherd. So yeah, Shepherd very well
could be the odd man out if and when that happens.
And and and I guess Taz, he has a pretty nice A dot.
SO you, you you could definitely get a game where some of those
Prairie yards hits and and you've got big yardage totals
and and a touchdown or two. I think that's.
I think that's everyone, yeah. And thanks and thanks for
joining us once again, everyone. We'll see you here next Tuesday.
See you next Tuesday.