Hello everyone and welcome to a late May edition of ADP Chasing.
To be honest, there's not much news going on right now, but
we'll be still diving in to back up running back situations to
try to uncover this year's Kyra Williams.
Let's do it. ADP chasing is for when you
watch ship chasing, you go. These guys are just football
guys. And the targets for outrun
leagues, that's going to be really nice.
Actually back in if it's ashenet.
Let's hear into our crystal ball. close your eyes.
You know all your entries are going to lose anyway.
Yeah, that's fair. This is a deuce von show it's.
Anti cabal. It's anti the best ball thought
leader. I'm obviously lying to some
degree because like, I have a lot of both of.
These guys, it's the most disgusting thing you can make.
But man, that intro still still gets me every time.
It's. 27th time It's still good. So before the show, Davis, Pat
and I were talking about whether Juju Smith, Schuster or KJ
Osborne is more likely to make the Patriots.
So that's a sign of. PJ by a lot, right?
Really good Newsweek here in the NFL.
Just just not a lot. Not a lot's going on.
There's there's not many risers. There's not many fallers.
Any riser or faller is either boredom or Leonie.
Move the ranks like Leonie. Move some guy like if like if
Leonie. Which is also boredom at this
point. Like if Leonie adjusted Rashad
White's target share with with Bucky Irving, like 3%, that
would have made it into our sheet from this last week.
Yeah, like it just it just would have, Yeah, that's that's where
we're at. That's right.
That's correct. Yeah, I mean the one.
So to to give a summary of today's show, we'll do a very
quick risers and fallers, I think all added to the screen
Now for people watching on YouTube.
The only really newsworthy thing to discuss, and it's a bit of a
stretch to call it newsworthy. Zay Jones signed with the
Cardinals last week. He's up 18 spots now, kind of in
the 17th, 18th round pick range. Correspondingly, Michael Wilson
is down about 10 spots with some more uncertainty about his role
there. Definitely not the sexiest topic
to hit on to start the show, but start with you, Davis.
Any thoughts on like how are you playing this Cardinals late
round wide receiver situation 'cause there definitely is room
I think, for a third guy to be relevant?
After Warren. Harrison and and McBride.
Say you only ever want with Kyler.
You would never take Kyler or you would never take say without
him. Whereas the I mean, I think the
positive thing it does is it means you can get Dorch at less
than 70% drafted, 50% drafted and you can get him on round 20
on DK, which is huge I think. I think sub 50% when by the time
the tournament closes unless we get some some big news.
Yeah, but I mean, Dorch is good. Zay Jones and Michael Wilson are
not good at earning targets. Like what's the Scott Barrett
always tweets this. It's it's like Dorch in games
with 65% or more of the routes averages like 16.4 PPR points
per game. It's it's like when he's on the
field, he's on the field to to catch the ball.
That's what it's what he does. Yeah, that that makes sense to
me. Pat, any thoughts on these
Cardinals wide receivers? Have you?
Are you ranking Zay Jones now that he's?
Yeah, he's like in the final, final rounds, like, I don't know
exactly where we have them, but somewhere in the two hundreds, I
think. I mean, are we sure Marvin
Harrison Junior exists? Are we sure Marvin Harrison
Junior is gonna play? Dude, no.
But it is. I mean zip.
By fanatics. Michael Wilson, we have at 188,
Zay Jones at two O 1. So they're splitting a role I
think is the problem. And so neither one I find
particularly appealing. And I think Davis is right that
if you're, I mean, I don't know, Dorch, it's tough because like
my problem with Dorch is that he keeps having people run routes
instead of him and you know. Zay Zay Jones now running routes
instead of him, Probably. Yeah.
So I was pretty excited about Dorch because I thought he had
like a pretty clear path to all the slot snaps and, you know,
would be out there in all three wider Super sets.
And now like maybe there's more of a rotation.
But I don't know. I still think he's somewhat
interesting because it should be Harrison and one of Jones or
Michael Wilson on the outside. With Dorch in the slot, you
would. Think right.
So that's The thing is that's why it's maybe sneaky bullish
for dorch and and very quite not good for Wilson because Zay
Jones. I mean Michael Wilson was like
kind of fun. He had the two touchdown game
against the 49ers. But you want to talk about a guy
who did not he he was. Quinton Johnston?
Ask at at. He's very high, like Piercy.
Yeah, I was going to say that. Alec Piercy in rookie season,
for sure. At earning target, Alec Pierce
profile. He's like a big outside guy who
got there on athleticism. That's what drove the draft
capital. The prospect profile was like
very much driven by the draft capital.
There really wasn't. Much else Ian our our good
friend Ian Harnitz did a a Michael Wilson highlights video
like 2 weeks before the draft. And I was like, all right, we've
like we might have gone too far. Like like we we might need need
the season to get here if we're posting Michael Wilson, rookie
year, Arizona Cardinals highlights, Catching touchdowns
from fucking Josh Dobbs. Do you think that cause, Ian?
I mean, you gotta give credit where credit's due.
Ian gets a lot of traction on his.
Oh my God, I wish I was Ian Ardit's Twitter.
Account. Seriously, do you do you think
that the Cardinals saw that post and that's why they signed Zay
Jones? Maybe it's.
Possible it wasn't good enough highlight reel.
Yeah, yeah. I mean, that's the take away
though is right Zay. Zay is probably going to start
the year playing over Michael Wilson.
I don't. I I would still think Michael
Wilson's a slight favorite to start.
The fact that the fact that the Zay Jones contract details still
aren't out make me think he got very little guarantees.
I think, you know, it was reported as up to four and a
half million. I'm guessing that's like a
million or less guaranteed potentially.
So we'll see on the details. Yeah, Michael Wilson.
I'm not going to pretend he's an awesome player or anything, but
I do think like late round Kyler stacks, he makes some sense.
He's kind of a like Alec Pierce. You could see a world where he
gives you some half PPR spike weeks, like gets lucky with a a
couple touchdowns in a week, catches some deep balls.
So I think he's totally. Did literally do it.
Wilson was a positive advance rate guy, 'cause he had a 25
point week I think against the 49ers or something is like a
17th round pick. So that's it's worth a lot to
get that. Like the the whole, which we're
going to talk about later, is the whole Puka and Kyra thing,
is it? It kind of overstates how much
you need from a 17th or 18th round pick like if by.
A lot. Like, by a lot.
Like if if we're taking. So we're all kind of in this
Jalen Tolbert vortex, right? Like, we think Jalen Tolbert
stinks, but he's going to play a lot.
I mean, if Jalen Tolbert in Week 3 catches 2 touchdowns for 83
yards and like in Week 15 gets 14 points, you're talking about
like one of the picks of the year probably, yeah.
Dude, for real. For real.
I would be so psyched with that. Upper Yeah, it's how low the bar
is. I mean that's that's like a fair
amount of teams that get through Week 15 that might not have like
that's that. Matters, yes, correct.
I was trying to think through when we can talk about Tolbert
and maybe you can put AT Perry, Khalif, Raymond, Josh Reynolds,
like these type of wide receivers that are entirely
draftable now because of projectable volume.
I was trying to think through like how many more of these Zay
Jones, what did you call DJ Shark last week like the the
Dementor? The dementor.
Yeah, the yeah, the dementor of failed wide receivers.
Like, I think Michael Thomas is maybe the only one of those guys
that's still out there like looking for a job.
Like, I don't know. For example, like if if Michael
Thomas sides with the Cowboys, that's kind of game over for
Jalen Tolbert. Is it, though?
Because Michael Thomas will be dead in six weeks.
So that's probably. It's probably not.
Yeah, I guess that's the point though.
That's like these guys are like kind of safe in a weird way now,
like who's left a wide receiver that's taking the obviously they
can just face plant so hard that it, it doesn't matter.
But it's not like there's a ton of these.
So that's what you never account for when you when we think about
these AT Perry's and these Jalen Torberts is you don't account
for them playing so poorly that the sixth round rookie that you
forgot was on the team is playing over them by Week 5 S
like by the way AT Perry I've been wanting to bring this up
because I tweeted the other day like you know I don't want to
leave the draft with with all this chapter and and Jalen
Tolbert a bunch of people were saying AT Perry like I like they
were kind of unearthing this hidden gem or something AT Perry
played 53% of the New Orleans Saints snaps last year and
generated 18 targets. Is that?
True. I just.
I I I yes, it is. It's true that seems that seems
impossible to believe. That's so bad.
Yeah, he ran. Two in eight routes.
The reason why people like him is 'cause he scored four
touchdowns. Two of those touchdowns came
when who was playing quarterback?
You basically can't count Jameis stats like it's just it's it's
it's a totally different thing. You can't count them.
Yeah, so he was basically the the Jimmy Graham of wide
receivers last year. Except.
Except he was playing. Except he was.
Playing a lot. Playing he was out there all the
time and just never never I I so AT Perry I I will have a a cool
AT Perry on what 70% of teams check established the run draft
project. I mean, I'll just have a cool 0%
of that. Yeah.
I'm not real into the guy who jumps out to me is Khalif
Raymond. Yeah.
He so OK I was. I was hoping you'd be into him.
Sam because he's like he's he's the kind of like, it's not that
exciting, but he's just out there he's.
Decent. He's decent.
He finished third, Third in open score last year, which is kind
of nuts, like kind of the thing that makes you question of open
scores is a good metric to use. But but first was Keenan Allen,
second with CD Lamb, 4th was Tyriq Hill, fifth was Garrett
Wilson. So like the rest of the guys got
open. So I mean it's a smaller sample
for him and that's probably why he's this high, but he's pretty
solid. There's not much target
competition outside of, well, I guess there's some target, you
know, there's decent target conferences.
That's a bad point. Ham and Ross going to draw
targets and Sam before he's going to draw targets but but
Jamo is not going to draw a ton of targets consistently, right?
Unless. He I mean there, there's a
pretty clear analog for Raymond, which is the 2021 season.
That was the first Big St. Brown season. 119 targets.
Saint Brown gets 90. Swift gets 6290 receptions, 62
receptions for Swift, 61 for Hawkinson.
The end Hawkinson got hurt that year or traded that year, I
don't remember which one, and Khalifa Raymond had 71 targets,
48 receptions, 576 yards and four touchdowns.
You might be looking at like what is 500 yards and four
touchdowns do, but the the type of routes he runs, particularly
in this offense, he's got a decent chance of having two of
those touchdowns come together in one game.
Off the top of your head, what do you what do you think Khalif
Raymond's yards per Outrun was last year?
It was I I had the spreadsheet because I was actually, I was
calculating his career yards per outrun.
So I know the answer. It's.
It was 2.07 and it was 1.91 the year before this dude.
His career, his career is one points his his career is 1.7,
which is pretty good over a sample, a sample of 1250 routes.
That's like not like a nothing sample.
Now the problem is he's, you know, this is his eighth year in
the league. So there's obviously no upside
here, right? Like none.
You're not talking yourself into like a breakout season.
No, you're just running. You're running back.
The Josh Reynolds bet from last year, which I think was a very
good bet and paid off like the Josh Reynolds thing, didn't have
a sexy season. I would almost guarantee he was
a plus advance rate basketball player.
Got plenty of decent like 15 point weeks and that's sometimes
what you're looking for, an 18th round pick.
The the chat by the way they are animated about AT Perry.
Some of the AT Perry people that follow me on Twitter are in the
chat and they're like come on bro.
It's AT 18 targets on 353 snaps. I just.
I'm a little yeah, I I get the downside.
I'm a like, I'm a little bit more OK with clicking Perry.
He's definitely not a guy I'll have a ton of, but if I already
have some Saints, I don't. The thing is literally like look
at the depth chart and this is how you really get into trouble.
In this is you're you're literally doing the exercise we
just talked about getting yourself in trouble.
Yeah, but they did. They did.
With Perry, second year players I think are more risky.
This is why Tolbert's making really uneasy, actually.
Is that second year players? Tolbert is 1/3.
Year. Oh God, yeah.
Well, OK, that's even worse. Second and third year players.
The team is not like seeing what they have, like they know what
they have. Jim Tolbert's been around for
two years. Like they know exactly what they
have. Like if he's not good, he's
going away at the end of the season, right?
Like they're going to see what they have in whatever random
sixth round guy and they have one.
By the way, I forget if I'm for mentioned.
I'm. Flournoy, yeah?
Yeah, so Flournoy is going to be who they're curious about.
Have you looked into this flournoy guy, by the way?
He's like. 24 years old. So he's so old.
He's Yeah, I. Don't know what to be.
Is he older than Tolber? He might.
He. I think he is, yeah.
No, I haven't really looked into him.
Yeah, he's he's not someone. That.
Is very fun to look into. He played college football.
He played he played college football for the Central
Missouri Mules. The Iowa Western Rivers not
Rivers Rivers and Southeast Missouri State RedHawks.
He's 24 years old. So I think, I think probably we
can stay safe. I I think Turpin probably is
more of a threat or you want to talk about we'll actually do
this We'll we'll do real sleepers here on ADP tracing
People forget Luke Schoonmacher was a second round pick last
year for the Cowboys that got hurt in mini camp like pretty
severely and was not even able to practice in training camp.
Really, this could be a pretty heavy 12 personnel team, and
that could explain why they didn't invest anything in wide
receiver this offseason. This this season is just setting
up to be like how does CD Lamb just not end up as the wide
receiver one this? Season.
How does he not? How does he not catch 200
passes? It's just like setting up to be
the most insane target hog season of all time.
Like this competition somehow got worse from last year, I
think with Gallop leaving and cooks.
They let gallop go. Insane.
It's just like such a it's such a bad skill core and also Pauler
didn't have a great year but I think we can all say he's a
better pass catching weapon than you know Zeke and Rico Dowdall.
It's just like. You know, I I'm not going to
give I I think Rico's probably better than Pollard.
He. Was pretty bad last year the,
you know, I mean, obviously I agree CDs to Smash, but Jake
Ferguson, right, I mean. Who's.
Who's got a Who's got a bigger Target chair?
This is not like I'm, I'm serious.
Who's got a bigger Target chair this year, Jake Ferguson or Sam
Laporta? Laporta's because because their
offence is not egalitarian. The the stuff the Cowboys were
doing last year was Schottenheimer was much more
egalitarian, where it's like you don't even have to be good, like
like Jake. It is.
The answer is Laporta. But you had to think.
You had to think and. There's a well, the I thought
you were going to say Kincaid, and I was ready to say
everything that people been saying about Kincaid applies to
Ferguson 2, where it's like, yeah.
It literally does. Yeah, like you'd like.
There's just very little else for there to go to with the
obviously the the upside being Jake Ferguson has scored
touchdowns ever in his career at at any level he.
He scored touchdowns and he's like I was looking at the play
action participation rate from last year.
I wrote an article about this last year of like this being an
important thing to look at for tight ends is why.
Partly like Kyle Pitts has been a disappointment.
Because he's not out there around the goal line on play
action. Because he doesn't block at all
and he's terrible at it. Ferguson, that was like what he
did before he had a role. He would come in for 12 stuff
and get used to around the goal line.
I mean, it makes sense why he got so many red zone.
Targets he He led tight ends and end zone targets, if not in the
end for a large part of the season last year, I I guess I
haven't looked this off season. That stuff.
Very variant, but he's a part of their plan at the goal line.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, he is. The other thing?
Brandon Cooks while we were just talking about all the Cowboys.
He's a guy that like, I think I I've had a leak.
It's. Been a leak in my game.
That's a Lord Reeves play. I I completely just ignore him
like I'd completely ignore. Him.
I don't think that's a leak thing.
I think you're drafting well. I guess maybe it is.
But what I was talking myself into is like, sometimes these
older veterans I think have this underpriced downside risk of
like, he's just gonna get benched.
Like, but but who is Brandon Cook's gonna get benched for on
this Cowboys? There there is there is 0
benching risk that. Yeah, that's the thing.
That's not what I'm worried about.
I'm just doing other stuff. I'm taking Marshawn, Lloyd or
Tyson. I honestly don't even.
I don't even know where he's going in drafts because I've
completely. He's wide receiver, 60.
The issue is, is I I have Wicks ranked ahead of him, so I take
Wicks straight up over him and. If I have.
If I have a Falcon or I have a commander, I'm taking Dotson,
which I know. Obviously Dotson is terrible,
but you you want like they want to have a commander's player
with Daniels. It's mostly the running backs,
like, I'm taking Zeke, I'm taking Dowdle, I'm taking
Chardonnay, I'm taking Blake Korum, I'm taking Marshawn
Lloyd, Jerome Ford. Actually, I'd probably take him
over Ford, but that's a that's like where you get.
Yeah, yeah, that's true most of the time.
Yeah, let's, let's get to, I think the heart of today's
discussion, the rest of these risers and fallers, it's it's
kind of pointless to talk through.
So I think a big thing in basketball, and we've talked
about this in the show before, is obviously identifying who the
running back twos are on different teams.
So I went through this exercise pretty quickly.
It's it's it's definitely not perfect.
We can debate it here, but I went through all the teams in
the NFL and categorized their back four back fields into four
different categories. So we have clear RB1RB2 teams.
That seems like the Cardinals with Connor and Benson, Falcons
with Bijan and Algier, etcetera, where we just clearly know who
the running back won and running back two are.
And it's just like kind of no no contest.
Then there's a handful of teams I think where the market has
some certainty about who the RB2 is, but I think it's at least
debatable. That's teams like the Bills, the
box, the Giants, the Broncos and more.
And then there's teams where we just absolutely have no idea who
the RB2 is or it's like almost a complete toss up.
That would be, you know, for example there that would be The
Jets. Is it a band of Canada, Braylon,
Allen, Isaiah Davis, the Eagles, Is it Kenny Gainwell?
Is it Will Shipley, etcetera. And we can debate all these but.
I wanted to go through this exercise just to start thinking
through who are the guys, you know, the backup running backs
that we are confident drafting today versus guys that we should
be monitoring training camp news, pre season news, etcetera
before we start to pounce. And I get, I guess just a little
bit more context on like why I think this is important.
I wanted to go through last year.
These are some examples of running backs who are being
drafted as the RB2 on their teams.
This time last year we had Rashad Penny on the Eagles
complete zero. He was not the RB2.
Damien Harris on the Bills complete zero.
He was not the RB2. Well, no, no, he was going to
be, but he just played so bad and then got hurt.
OK. Yeah, fair enough.
But OK. I don't know about that one, I
think. Don't give me a derogatory that.
That was a that that was a derogatory.
Fair enough. Yeah.
I I. Think I think he just got
straight up beat out by Latavius Murray, but whatever, a little
a. Little kind of, a little bit of
a little bit of BI think. OK then tank, tank, Bixby, you
know he was given a chance to the RB2.
He was just. Yeah, he was the RB.
He was. The information was correct
there. He just sucked.
Yeah, yeah, Zach Evans. That was bad.
Do spawn, not RB2 Dwayne McBride in Minnesota over Ty Chandler.
Wrong. So no again, need to be clear
this well. I don't know about you guys, but
I took 0 McBride and was a Ty Chandler boy the whole way.
I need that. These are just purely, yeah,
these are just purely how the ADP had them ranked at this time
last year. Not saying that was.
Like a consensus of opinion, bifurcated Doesn't mean that
people didn't have the answer, though that's that's important
to to. Yeah that's true Ty Chandler was
was pretty clearly the answer I think.
But I I was. I was actually not that it on
Chandler because I I didn't think he was that clear, but not
because I was in on McBride. McBride was was untouchable
after the draft. Yeah.
So I think this list we don't need to spend any time on.
That's not the point of today's discussion.
But just so people watching along, these are the examples of
the teams where the depth chart is just very clear cut.
I don't I I guess like a team like Miami.
I'll listen to you if you want to make an argument that somehow
Jalen Wright ends up as RB2 over Mostert.
I guess I'll listen to you if you want to say AJ Dillon, just
cause the team so familiar with them has a chance.
But I really think those are very small, unlikely outcomes.
These teams are pretty much just locked in RB1RB2.
I would say there's sort of 1/3 category here.
It might be like worth considering where there are back
fields and I would categorize the Dolphins and the Bears like
this last year where you have like just pure uncertainty and
so you're kind of taking stabs. And the Dolphins are still kind
of like that because we know HN is really good, but he's not
going to be like in a workhorse. Most of it's really old.
So you're kind of like just like I don't know this guy might have
something and and it's a backfield where I want that.
And then the Packers are probably kind of like that to an
extent as far as the RB2 goes because like maybe you know
maybe both have some kind of role, but obviously with behind
Jacobs that's that's not really one of those situations, but
there's AI. Hear you, yeah.
Yeah, there's kind of a yeah, there's like an uncertain.
What I'm trying? To say is like the Chiefs last
year, right, like the Chiefs where you have like a McKinnon
and Aceh, I mean they're probably like both end up being
draftable is what I'm trying to get to.
I tried to categorize that in this this far right corner here,
Karine. I didn't want to spend too much
time in today's show talking about it because I think it's a
a a separate debate entirely. But I think this year the teams
that maybe fit that bill are like the Chargers, most clearly
the Browns a little bit because of the Nick Chubb injury.
Like could he miss the whole season and both Donta Foreman
and Ford are playing. So if you wanted to talk me into
putting Miami into that far right category, I understand
where you're coming from. It's it's like a Little Mix of
both, I would say probably. But yeah, these aren't perfect.
Categories, I would be tilted if you put them there, 'cause I
love HM, but like, also they're sort of like not in the they're.
They're kind of a special case in a sense.
They're a special case. Yeah, exactly.
Yeah. Who's the starter isn't the
perfect definition for that category.
It's just kind of like like the Chargers, for instance, and we
can hit on this a little bit. I I think it's OK to take the
risk of a dead roster spot on the Chargers with Kamani Vidal
because the upside is so huge. Like Kamani Vidal could be a
complete 0. But I'm OK drafting him.
Whereas like, I'll give an example.
I don't know. Like the the the Colts.
I don't really wanna take a complete zero with Evan A Hull
right now. Maybe that's a bad example.
There's some upside in the Colts.
I don't know. The Raiders is a.
No, that's I think that's fair. Like he might be behind Trey
sermon like it's possible it's kind of crazy.
I hope not, but it's, I mean you could be definitely taking a
zero with Evan Hull. And the upside of what you get
there's is so much less than what you get in the charger, so
not if. Jonathan Taylor twists his knee,
Then Zach Moss was like a league winner last year, like 3.2 yards
per carrying his way down the field.
That's true. I'm not saying there's no upside
there. I'm just saying without
injuries, your best case scenario is getting the RV 2 on
the Colts, whereas on the Chargers you can literally bank
the starting running back. Let's start here with Buffalo.
So Ray Davis is now being drafted pretty aggressively.
What do you guys think, starting with the Ukraine?
Do you think that there's decent, odd, like high enough
odds he's going to win this role that you feel comfortable taking
him at at 1:57? He's not like a priority for me,
but yeah, I think he's going to, I think he's going to be the
RB2, Ray Davis. The appeal of Ray Davis, I think
in fantasy and real life is that he's like ready to go.
You know, he's a really old guy. He's, you know, he's versatile.
He doesn't add like a ton of explosiveness, but he's sort of,
I mean Devin, Singletary esque, you know, you put you put him
out there, you kind of let him do his thing.
I think that's like if you're if you're drafting like Ray Davis
to develop him for a year, what are you doing?
You know just get him out there if you're if you're going to
draft them. So I would be a little bit
surprised if you know he's not the RB2 and then I do think with
some, with the rookies who have like some draft capital behind
them you don't like they don't have to be the clear RV 2 to
ultimately provide some value this season.
I I think the rookies give us a little bit more.
They give us another out of them earning role or earning a role
as the season progresses. James Cook, I like a lot, but
he's not going to be like you know an 8090% snap share guy.
So there should be someone rotating in.
Maybe that person changes down the stretch and it's Ray Davis.
Even if it's in a bad, in a bad outcome for him.
That makes sense. Davis, what are your thoughts?
Ray Davis is going to score 11 touchdowns this year, and
there's just not really much than anyone could do about it.
It's sort of my thought, I just like what what would have to go
through your mind as AGM to draft a running back who's older
than your starter? Did we do the math?
It's like he's like 3 months younger than James Cook, I
think. But they're they're the same
age. You draft this guy and your
thought process is, Nah, we'll just set him, hang out on the
bench or whatever. What they did was they said what
Latavius Murray brought. We liked that, but we wanted in
a slightly younger package. Not too much younger, but just
slightly younger. And that is that is Ray Davis.
Ray Davis caught passes at Kentucky.
He's a fine pass blocker. He's big.
He's strong. He like he.
I think he had about 900 touches his final season at Kentucky.
I I believe he got 30 touches against Georgia.
Like they just like. It's just very clear what he
brings to. He's better than Damien Harris,
right? They signed Damien Harris.
It doesn't work out. They turn it over to Latavius
Murray. They're freaking given Ty
Johnson goal line touches because they don't trust James
Cook down there like Ray Davis is scoring touchdowns.
I don't know him passes he'll catch, but he's scoring
touchdowns. My slight pushback on Davis is
it's not actually I I think he's going to win this RBQ job,
especially as you said, Crane down the stretch.
And I also think that the role has a decent chance of being
good. It's just that for me, where
he's priced now like Tyler Algiers, goes 6 picks later.
I kind of feel like Ray, like a ceiling comp for Ray Davis might
be like Tyler Algiers. So it's a little bit of the
Family Guy like boat meme. I feel like I can just get a
locked in running back too on a good team, on a team that
doesn't have Josh Allen stealing goal line work.
So that's it for me like. And also Antonio Gibson, a
little bit of a different story there, but I just feel like
there's these really locked in RB twos, if that makes sense,
that go after Davis. So it feels.
There's like. Algiers, one of the best picks
on the board. I mean.
He's a he's locked in. I mean, this dude is absolutely
locked in. I don't understand.
He should be in the one 40s. He's 26.
Enterprise. I don't get it.
But yeah, I mean, that's a good thing.
Like to me, that's more about Algiers than Davis.
Exactly. Like, I don't think Davis is a
bad pick, but for me, like, I I just probably it's gonna be
really hard for me to click Ray Davis over Algiers.
So that's that's my one hang up there.
I also did want to look at. So I looked at I I think a lot
of these guys, the discussion comes down to like how a lot of
these guys are rookies like fourth round, fifth round picks.
So I think a lot of the discussion comes down to like
how likely is it that a day three running back makes an
impact as a rookie. So I looked at this
historically, quickly, and I just looked at running backs
since 2017 in the third round, fourth round and 5th round.
This first slide here is the third round and I just counted
how many of them historically were just absolute zeros as
rookies. And so for third round running
backs since 2017, about 40% of them were zeros as rookies.
That was last year. Guys like Kendra and Tank, the
49ers, TDP, Trey, Sermon, combo, Damien Harris was kind of red
shirted as a rookie. So guys like that that just
didn't make an impact. Once you go to to fourth round
things get slightly worse. About 50% of them were zeros as
rookies and then once you go to fifth round it gets even uglier
like 70% of them were zeros as rookies And and I define zeros
like a little bit based on feel but it was guys that you know
had less than 30 carries as rookies like I I I defined non
zeros pretty generously like for for instance think.
So, 'cause Aaron Jones didn't really do much as a as a rookie.
Like exactly like. Like the guys who are
highlighted as non zeros are not necessarily hits.
They just got like some playing time as a rookies.
The guys highlighted in red are like stone, like absolute zeros
like this. This analysis counted like Josh
Kelly's rookie season as a hit, so it's a pretty like generous
analysis, just 'cause he was the backup, got a handful of carries
like he was. Kind of.
Benny Snell's a hit, I think. I think you're being generous.
Yeah, very, very. Bryce Love.
Remember Bryce love. God do I remember.
Sean Segal loved. Bryce Love and.
That was he loved Benny Snell too.
He loved Benny Snell as well. Yeah, so so zooming back out, my
my point is just that these guys, I think we're in peak
rookie hype season. It's important to remember like
the base rate expectations for like a random draw fourth round
rookie. Like they're pretty fucking
terrible Now if a. Well, hang on, hang on, hang on,
hang on. But when they hit, look at some
of the hits on there. Some of the hits are massive.
Yeah, yeah, like Benny Snell and yeah.
No heroine. Heroine was, unironically, a
hit. He was good as a rookie.
Yeah. You're getting a bit.
Yeah, go ahead. Go ahead.
Grand. No.
I mean like well, obviously Michael Carter was kind of it
was he was drafted, it was priced in.
Damien Pierce. By the very end it was priced
in, but early on it was not from Andre though.
I mean that was that was a very well priced big hit.
Terry Cohen was kind of a you know, pure pass catching PPR
guy, but that was a pretty big hit his rookie season.
I can't remember when Chase Edmonds came on, but like some
of these dudes like Marlon Mack I think was a pretty damn big
hit when when in his rookie season.
So you are getting, I think, you know, you're swinging for the
fences a little bit. And so maybe maybe the point
would be like, are you swinging for the fences with Ray Davis?
Is he really? I mean, but to Davis's point, he
scored a bunch of touchdowns. So maybe, maybe he's a swing for
the fences. But yeah, I mean that's that's
what you're doing. You're swinging for the fences.
You're much, much more likely to take a zero with one some of
these dudes, because they might suck, but they might be, they
might be really good too. That's, that's the appeal.
We don't know. Exactly, yeah.
We just don't know and and a lot and Gretchen's made this point
too. A lot of these running backs got
uniquely good landing spots. So I'm not saying like the base
rate expectations that's just like general grounding for this
conversation. I'm not saying Ray Davis has
like a 70% chance of being a boss just cause of where he was
drafted. I just think it's important to
remember when we get overconfident and back to the
Tyler Algier Antonio Gibson thing like once these day three
rookies like are priced above those guys.
I'm just gonna probably say, hey guys, I I think I'm just out.
I'm just gonna take the guys that I know have the role.
So, but yeah, let's let's move on to talking about Bucky
Irving. I think this one is interesting
because I think you can make the case that he could even get a
bigger, like, starting role potentially by the end of the
season. How much should we believe that
case of Bucky Irving? Like, completely overtaking
Rashad White? Well, I mean, do you want to
dust off the Rashad White takes from last year?
Yeah, it's just the issue is Rashad White is is so
replacement level that like they tried everything to try and you
know, get him off the field and none of it worked.
And there's also like, you know how much of wanting the same
running back on the field all the time was Canalis, Canalis
being like, yeah, I just want this dude out there 85% of the
time or whatever. It's like that.
That's probably unknowable right now.
No, I don't know if that means Sean Tucker is a draftable.
I don't know if that means Bucky Irving is draftable.
I don't know if that means Edmonds is going to play this
year. I mean, probably not, But I
probably means Irving is draftable.
Really. I think, I think.
I think it's Draftable. I think it's very draftable.
I think he's very draftable. Like the thing with Irving is
that he was, so he bombed the athleticism stuff, but he was a
good running back. He's.
Very good. Yeah, like a college player.
He was very good. And then he, he gets some draft
capital and he lands in a pristine spot for just kind of
doing your job as a rusher shining through like, Oh my God,
this guy's hitting the right holes.
He's doing every play we call, like, he does it exactly like we
say. We're like Rashad White.
You cannot, you cannot rely on this guy on the ground.
He had a -. 110 rush yards over expected lowest in the entire
NFL. Worse than Jamal Williams.
Worse than the Kareem Hunt last year, Worse than AMA Kamara.
It it was bad. He had a 37% success rate.
That's also bad. He hasn't been good as a runner.
He's a pretty solid receiver. But I mean, there's like a real
path to Bucky Irving just being like the the leap.
Like, I know it's not a perfect example, but like he could be
the Brian Robinson to Rashad's White's Antonio Gibson.
Yeah, that's it's not a it's not a one to one.
It's not a one to one. But yes, yeah, it it is very
like. That different types of players
like Robinson's more like a true kind of early down guy.
But I think even more than Gibson, White is just like the
door. Like he's left the door wide
open for someone to come in and take this early down role.
Yeah, and. I made this point a couple weeks
ago, but again, the Rashad White thing, it worked out last year.
But I I honestly do think the Bucks were actively trying to
find a better running back on their roster to take some of
White's work away and they just couldn't do it because Chase
Edmonds, Sean Tucker. These guys were so bad.
So I think they're going to the season thinking we need to some.
We need someone to take some of the work off Rashad White's
plate. Maybe Bucky Irving sucks so much
that he can't, but I would bet on him carving out some kind of
role in this backfield in most in most scenarios.
Rashad Rashad Roy as a rookie had a 34% success rate, -30 rush
yards over expected. That was just above AJ Dillon,
actually slightly worse than Antonio Gibson.
Speaking of him, worse than Dalvin Cook and kind of his
final season of relevance. I mean, he's yet to show
anything as a runner this this would also be kind of like on
track for them to be like, all right, let's let's try something
else out. Yeah.
Fading Rashad White tears in a row.
What can go wrong. Let's let's talk here about
about Denver Javante Williams. Here's the starter running back
to it's kind of a mess here in Denver.
There's a bunch of guys Julian McLaughlin So Samadre P Ryan P
Ryan Audrick estimate I'm taking Jaleel McLaughlin.
It's just kind of a weird scenario I don't.
I'm I'm windmilling Jaleel at this price because it's going to
be August 12th and Jaleel McLaughlin is going to be going
off the board as running back 39 in the 11th round.
It's going to be a total shark jump situation.
Yeah, I could definitely see that.
And I I was taking a lot of him, like 20 picks higher than this
in the big board, but they haven't cut P rein.
I guess they still probably will, but I would really like
them to if I'm drafting. Julie Well, well, what's going
to happen is Max one of estimate or P Rein makes the roster and
they're just going to see if estimate is any good.
Yeah, but I if I I'm drafting McLaughlin, I really want it to
be estimate. Who makes it estimate is kind of
more like the Javante dude. Like he's he's an early down
grinder. Like even even if he's really
good, he's just like a A2 down Pounder type.
I think it would just be helpful to think of Jaleel as Pierre
Thomas where he can't be replaced regardless of who the
other running backs on the Pierre.
I mean go through and look at the other running backs that
Pierre Thomas had good fantasy seasons with.
It's like every shape inside, you know, Mark Ingram, Darren
Sproles, like it just, it just did not matter who was in a
backfield with Pierre Thomas. He would always get his numbers.
I I could definitely see that but I mean he had he's not as
established and they also drafted this or they signed this
Blake Watson and they were talking about him in a similar
role to Jaleel. I think they would be like
directly competing And then P Rein was running back 4IN
receiver rating last year and I believe he led all running backs
and yards for outrun. So that's like.
Yeah, we know exactly who P Rein is.
I know. But like, I don't want him
involved. Like Jaleel's path to like
really winning me Weeks is as a receiver, like give me estimate,
not P Ron. I think that just makes him so
much more appealing if it's if it's a three man committee of
Williams, P Rein and McLaughlin, P Rein is big enough to get goal
line work. And I mean, he's actually like
really big and he's a good receiver, so.
That's where, I mean, honestly, if P Ryan doesn't get cut, I'm
kind of into P Ryan. He he's.
He gives you, he touches. Denver just needs to get on the
phone with Jerry Jones and say, hey, hey Jerry, we'll give you
some Ajay P Ryan for a future second round pick.
How does that sound, buddy? And that solves all of our
problems. Not my Rico Dowdell problems
that that would give you a whole bunch to do.
I got a bag of Dowdell man. I mean, I think P Ryan gets cut
pretty. I think he gets.
I think he gets cut. It's just it would be so weird
to draft estimate and then P Ron is.
It such a big fifth round. Yeah, they don't have that many.
It's not that it's not that weird to take a fifth round.
Yeah Sam, you just showed that chart.
Like couldn't you practice squad, estimate practice squad.
I mean Blake Watson, you tell see you next year most likely
and then and estimates on the practice squad and you roll out
with the same three you had last year that seems is that not the
most likely scenario. Yeah, I I just think like
Samadre Piran's cap number this year is $5,000,000 like that
just seems insane to me that they're willing to pay that
that. Is insane.
When they have all this. Depth and how is that?
That's great. Yeah, I I I'm lying a little
bit. It's four and a half million
but. Still that's you round it up,
we'll we'll accept rounding. I round it up but like that's so
much to pay a running back these days.
I I just don't like you're you're paying him that much to
be like a rotational like 20% snap they can.
Save 3,000,000 by cutting and it.
Looks like, yeah, that's that's a kind of a lot of money for a
running back so I don't know. It's definitely, I agree with
Ukraine though, it's definitely a lot more fun to pick Jalil if
if 'cause if P Ron's out of there, then you can see a path
to just like A2 back backfield. I think if P Ron's still on the
team, he's gonna rotate in, it's just gonna be annoying.
So. I'm still taking Julio.
Like I have him ranked, like exactly with ADPI.
Do take him sometimes, but it's just like he was a guy.
I was really, I was excited about him.
I was excited to be excited about Julio McLaughlin.
And it's just like, I want to see the clear runway.
Clear the fucking runway and I'll get excited.
Think about the game we're playing, OK?
You got to think about it more like a like in a game theory
sense of like what are the odds that P Ryan is on the Broncos
roster in Week 1? Definitely.
I think lower than what? See.
I don't think it is I I I. Put it at like 30%.
I put it like 30. Percent.
So like, so. OK, so give it 30%.
Then give it. What are the odds that he stays
healthy for 17 games? Then give it the odds that
Javonte Williams stays healthy for 17 games.
Then give it the odds that Sean Payton just for whatever reason,
loves this Julio McLaughlin kid. Which he pretty clearly does
because he was playing him over Javonte like early on when no
one even knew who he was. Remember, he's Week 1 or Week
Two. He scored the.
Goal. I had to learn what his name was
week one. I had no idea who he was.
So I think you do all of that math and you're like, well, we
know that Beau Nix is going to throw like 210 targets to the
running backs this upcoming season.
And you can get this guy after like special teams, wide
receivers. You know, like he's going after
Rashad Bateman. Like, you know, like.
I just think. I mean, we say this all the time
on this show. We say we always think the
market is going to count something and then the thing
actually happens and then they're so surprised they freak
out. They're like, what do you mean?
Kirk Cousins is a Falcon Impossible, you know.
What do you mean, Justin? He was a Viking before.
Justin Fields is the quarterback, 28 now.
He got traded, I think. Jaleel.
Jaleel, I mean, I'll tell you this, if we're if, if he got, if
we get off this show. P Ryan gets cut.
We do this show next week. Jaleel is the number one riser
number. Not like like 100%.
He's up like 30 spots. Yeah.
So it's a funny thing like especially doing rankings and
everything. Like I've been in on Jaleel all
offseason, but I got, I just like when you're just like
clicking this dude a lot, you're kind of like, can this get a
little clearer? Can this get a little clearer?
But you're right. I think that I don't want to
lose. I don't want to lose my nerve
here on on Jaleel. He's a good pick.
Well, the the important point is that I don't think there's any
scenario where you're taking a zero where there are some guys
you're taking around him who are definite 0 possibilities.
So I think that helps that. I I think that makes me feel
more comfortable like you might be taking Keaton Mitchell and he
might just be a zero. I mean he just might not play
right. He could get beat out by
Rasheeda Ali and he could be worse than we think.
Bucky Irving could get beat out by Sean Tuck like whatever,
whatever. But there's really no non injury
scenario I think where Jalil is a 0.
Yeah, he had a role last year. He was good at it.
It would be weird if they if he didn't at least retain the the
role he had last year. It would be very.
Weird. I mean, it would be weird, but
at the same time, he's a UDFA and then they just took another
UDFA and they're like, this guy does the exact same thing as
this other guy. You're really voicing me with my
own petard, which always with these running backs to be like
the team doesn't give a shit about him, yeah?
Yeah, we're trying to apply logic to to what Sean Payton,
what's going through Sean Payton's head, which is just a
recipe for disaster like. But it is.
I mean, UDFA, like, like, we see this all the time.
Like, Phillip Lindsay was awesome.
And then they were like, hey Phillip, yeah, that's true.
Don't care. Go away.
There was a regime change. There was a regime change.
So that's the thing you got to be careful of with the with the
third round or with like the Damien Pierces, you got to be
really careful when it's a regime change, because that's
when it's most likely to be there being like, I don't give a
shit about you when it's a new coach, yeah.
James Robinson Was that a regime?
Regime James James Robinson was a regime change and they even
started him. So they even the the regime
changed and they even started him and then he got hurt but but
he, James Robinson almost survived.
Urban Meyer. That was to Urban Meyer, right?
He was the the new guy who correct?
Yeah, someone in the chat asked a while ago.
What's this odds of being RB2? Calm.
I I mean, I just made it up, but there's.
No. Can you what are the what are
the inputs to this model please? Yeah, it's just just one of
these. One of.
These that finger types the numbers in yeah.
But I don't know if you guys. I would actually be like, as we
go through these, if you think these are like wildly off Davis
Pat, please chime in. But these guys are roughly like
I have. I have these teams ordered like
roughly. I think, I think you have the
Ravens one wrong. I'm pretty sure pretty sure the
Ravens one's wrong. Justice Hill has been the
running back too there for like the last decade and and probably
will be the running back too. Yeah, Justice Hill's the RV too.
Let's let's jump to the Ravens while we're on that cuz.
Yeah, this one was weird cuz I don't know I I guess let's let's
think imagine it's week 15. So Keaton Mitchell's had plenty
of time to come back from injury.
Theoretically at that point you still think Justice Hill is RBT
or are you just factoring? No, no, no.
I think. I think Keaton Mitchell is the
odds on favorite to be the running back too.
That matters. But but Justice Hill?
Well, even if Keaton is ready to start the year, Justice will be
the the second running back to get a snap for the Ravens.
Got it. Yeah, that.
Crazy that, like Justice Hill's career is like a pretty good
outcome for his draft capital people.
Sam Sam saw charts earlier like this, people.
Remember one of the good ones? People may remember Justice Hill
from famously being the guy you needed to win your league in
2018. My him.
And Darwin Thompson, right? It was my most.
Darwin Thompson Football. Article of all time it like got
viral on Google News. Somehow it was like getting like
millions. Yeah, it was me and Pete reading
it in preparation for FFPC drafts.
Not ideal. Not ideal.
It's also, it's so funny with like these guys like Hill and
Deneric Prince is maybe another example.
Like these guys that go from like these sexy hyped rookies,
like next league winner and then two years later we're like, that
guy sucks, Like who cares about that?
Guy, we're doing it this year with Theo Johnson, who has like
the exact same grass as Daniel Bellinger.
And we're like Daniel Bellinger. That bum, get him out that bum.
Literally. Like, like drill for drill the
same. I mean, how about how about
literal? Like the the one that's been
most startling to me is Odell Beckham, because I like was
doing fantasy analysis when he was a rookie and it's like now.
Now Odell is just an old bum, you know.
He's like the He's like the old guy that.
Makes sense. David.
David Johnson retiring. I mean, David Johnson's whole
career came and went in in my lifetime of doing this.
How it's so crazy that class has had so many guys that have all
become that guy. Like Sammy Watkins was the first
guy who kind of became the old guy.
Sammy Watkins was that guy like 4 years into his career.
Yeah, I know. It's like for his office, rookie
contract. He's like bouncing around the
lake. You had Allen Robinson had that
whole stretch of being that. Oh my God, Allen Robinson.
Yeah, yeah. I mean eventually we still have
Mike Evans, Devante Adams to go like the we have a couple more
presumably if that if that's how they end their.
Career I I I I feel good about Mike Evans not ever becoming
that guy. I think he'll probably just ride
out into the sun. I.
Hope so man. Devante Adams is going to be 37
years old as a Jet. Yeah.
Oh God. God.
Bring it back to So back to the Ravens here.
Oh, go ahead. Yeah, I was just going to say
so, just so people have the timeline for Keaton Mitchell.
He had surgery on December 28th. If you give him like a nine
month timeline, that would put him back sometime around week
four or five. Now his injury was weird.
This is getting into the weeds. It was reported as a clean ACL.
When you watch the injury, it did look like one of those.
That was like a particularly bad injury, but obviously that's,
you know, not something we should put a lot of stock into.
But it has been reported as a clean ACL tear.
So I'm, I'm going with that assessment, I guess, Yeah.
So if he's back in that week 4-5 time span, I actually think he's
a pretty good pick here, but definitely someone you should be
monitoring the news on on his recovery to see if he's.
Actually I want to do can I do a quick bit here on Rasheen Ali?
Because I bet this guy who's not really been talked about on any
fantasy thing pretty actually. I think more of a decent chance
on the market is indicating that he beats out both a gimpy Keaton
Mitchell and a an aging Justice Hill behind a 30 year old
running back. His final season at Marshall,
5.4 yards per carry, 16 touchdowns with 15 receptions.
He probably would have declared after his junior season because
he was also he was actually better as a sophomore and
Marshall. 24 touchdowns, 6 yards per carry, 1800 scrimmage yards.
But he got injured as a junior and then actually to stay in
shape, he ran track in between his junior and senior year.
And you'd think a guy of this profile, like an older guy,
like, oh, he must have been a UDFA.
No, he was a fifth round pick, 165th pick overall.
For a team that we think of as being pretty smart with their
picks like like, oh, the Ravens, they're, they're they're all,
you know, they're so intelligent.
Like they would never waste the pick on a running back, yadda
yadda, so on so forth. I my my Spidey senses are
tingling for sure on on Rashid Ali.
He's definitely a fun guy that I want to keep my eye on and and
see what the reports are on him. I think that's.
Yeah, it's a good. It's a good shout out because
he's got some some elements to his profile that you know he's
he was a good breakaway runner. He handled a lot of carries.
He ran a lot of routes. He was like a backfield
dominator rating star, which is, you know, Blair Andrews has
highlighted this for years where this is how we found Phillip
Lindsay and actually Devon HN was a backfield dominator.
When you get lower into the draft, that ability to just
handle an entire backfield is like, I think it's kind of
trust, right? It's like this dude was like,
they just threw him out there and let him do his thing.
Your boy Dylan Lowby, A backfield dominator as well.
But yeah, 85% of the backfield in his final season at at
Marshall and he added breakaway yards as well.
So he could be kind of interesting to me.
It's a reason to shy away from Keaton Mitchell right now.
We just talked about how the market doesn't price stuff in
they're not pricing in Keaton Mitchell starting the the
training camp on pop, like 'cause he's gonna, he's gonna,
he's gonna fall. So, and you know, like if if
you're taking Jonathan Brooks right now, he's probably gonna
fall for the same reason. But like Brooks is a potential
league winning pick. Mitchell's kind of like a an
intriguing dark throw I I probably want to wait on on good
news and take him in more towards the end of the summer.
Let's move here to the Saints. I think this has kind of been an
under discussed one in terms of second year running backs,
Kendrick Miller, he's at 15180 Pi have him here as a 60% odds
of beating out Jamal Williams. Shouldn't it be 100%?
Yeah, I think that should be higher.
I think if I started to come around.
Yeah, I think. I think it should be higher.
The only thing is like, he didn't.
That's what I'm just saying is like, he didn't do it last year
like. He got hurt When?
When a rookie gets hurt in camp, like all bets are off.
I think that's one thing I've really learned as trying to
mature as a fantasy football player is if a a rookie player
gets injured in camp, like maybe if the coaching staff loves
them, it can be all right. But if the coaching staff is
just like whatever, he's just in a like he's just here.
It's it's it's a very hard deficit to to make up.
Yeah, my buddy pointed out that the scheme change with Kendrick
Miller could be pretty bullish as well.
Going to the the, the Kubiak style offense here, it's.
Just kind of bullish for any running back, isn't it?
Yeah, I guess it's. Bullish for any running back.
But but I mean, I think Miller's kind of like, you know, we're
betting on like explosiveness. He's a sort of a weird prospect
where like he when you watch him, you're like, oh, he looks
almost like Kamara, esque. Like you expect that he's going
to be this like versatile receiving guy, but he's more of
a kind of explosive runner than you know receiver.
So that would, if you know, I mean, it can't hurt, 'cause he
because it wasn't. It wasn't.
Worse than whatever they had last year, Yeah.
Yeah. But also I was talking to his
prospect profile and it was a bit, it was pretty good.
Like, he's he's a better prospect than a lot of the
running backs in this class. So kind.
Of how would he compare to you like compare, let's say like
Marshawn Lloyd, How do you compare to that in terms of
prospect profile? So I have.
Kendrick Miller. It has to be way better.
Lloyd was a part time back. Yeah, I have Kendrick Miller
just tiered as a second round dynasty pick and Lloyd is 1/3
and the only other second rounds just like straight seconds.
I have a couple early few early 2nd rounders.
I'll just say from last year I'll just go through the entire
classes. Bijan Robinson.
I have his work being with the Superflex one O 1.
Jamir Gibbs is an early first. Jonathan Brooks is a late 1st
Trey Benson, Taiji Spears, Zach Charbonnet is early 2nd Devon HN
and Kendra Miller is second, Everyone else 1/3 or later.
Got it. Yeah, I'm with you guys.
I think I should, I should have bumped this up to like 8085% or
something. And I I think the also the other
thing that's exciting about this one is man Alvin Kamara, he he
might be done pretty soon and it wouldn't be like compared to
other guys in this list like Elijah Mitchell.
Obviously not gonna overtake CMC like CEH, not gonna overtake
Pacheco. I could see Kendra Miller just
being a better fit for this new Shanahan S scheme than Alvin
Kamara is at this stage of his career.
That wouldn't entirely shock me if, if that happened.
I mean Kamara. I wouldn't be surprised at all.
Kamara is washed like as a runner.
He's been bad, man. He's been so bad, like.
He had Kamara had multiple games not only of sub three yards per
carry last season, but he also had two games with negative
yards receiving, which is. Somewhere.
Interesting. That's hard to do.
That is hard to do. Ezekiel Elliott, you know, we
all know how watch Zeke is 42% success rate last year is pretty
good. So he's like still doing a thing
that's useless, like higher than Joe Mixon, higher than Brian
Robinson, higher than Derrick Henry.
He's still like out there doing a thing that like a team can
count on. Kamara's success rate was was
horrendous and he's and he had 99 yards underexpected.
So you're getting kind of the worst of both.
It's like you know Damien Pierce the 33% success rate -83 it's
like that kind of vibes. Joshua Kelly's down here.
Jamal Williams Miles Sanders like just any like it's up to
Kendray. You know what I mean.
Like if Kendray has something he he should be able to to force
his way on the field. Because the other one, I mean
Jamal Williams, one of the other guys down here, -102 rush yards
over expected in 2023 with a 29% success rate.
This, he was horrendous. The Jamal Williams contract last
offseason is is one of the worst.
I mean the Saints, The Saints are so bad at this.
The Saints are like the worst contract team.
Well, look, if you just want to have a good laugh, go look at
what they made them pay Taysom Hill.
Like they can't even, they can't even cut Taysom Hill because
Sean Taylor. Like it was like 3 years ago.
They still can't cut him that because it's like Taysom is good
enough to be on the field, to just like be a football player,
so they can't cut him. But it's just like, it's just so
bad. What they should do, honestly,
is they should just, they should just cut all the bad contracts
in one offseason and just eat it.
Just be like, you know what? We're just going to be the worst
team in football for the next year and a half and just be like
it is what it is. I mean, they're going to be the
worst team in football here pretty soon either way.
But they keep trying to, they keep trying to paper over it and
I think they just need to. They just need to be like we are
an XFL franchise for the. Next.
Yeah, they got to stop. Yeah, they got to stop kicking
the can down the road, like. Like the like the Derek Carr
contract extension. It's like that just was so, so,
so misguided. It was so bad.
But is it misguided from a perspective of like, how are
these particular set of individuals going to be employed
by an NFL franchise? If not the Saints like you, just
how to how to extend the hell out.
Of taysom taysom, taysom. 'Cause I feel like this is it.
We made our bed. Here's the thing.
Peyton fucked himself because if Taysom made less money, he could
have just traded for him and he would have gotten his
quarterback and wouldn't have had to do Bonex.
I'm surprised that the Broncos haven't figured out a way to
trade for Taysom yet. That's that's coming next year.
It's. Coming next year.
Everyone. Everyone in the chat, guess what
they think Taysom Hill's contract is right.
Now. Just everyone in the chat in
your head. Do a little mental calculus.
What do you think Taysom Hill gets paid?
I I know the answer, Sam. What do you think Taysom Hill
gets? Paid Are you saying it's like
cap hit this year? I'm saying, let's see, what's
the funnier number? His funnier, what do you think
is what do you think his dead cap number is?
His dead cap number is the funniest number.
Like 25,000,000. 24,000,000. 40 Four Well done, Sam.
I knew it was absurd. I've I've been on that over the
Cap page before. It's a cumulative.
Is his cumulative? Is Khalif Rayman's yards from
Route Run and Taste Mills dead cap?
His His cumulative cash number is 32,000,000.
His actual cap hit, obviously, is.
Not that. Bad, because this is the way the
Saints do things, is the actual cap hit ends up being OK because
it's all kicks down the road. Because it's it's not for three
more years. Now now if Taysom is a if Taysom
is a St. next year $15 million for 34 year old Taysom mill.
He's still a team next year. Tony Gonzalez retired at 34,
didn't he? It's unbelievable.
Oh, and it's just like and I can't even have fun with it
anymore because underdog. Underdog removed his tight end
eligibility. So misguided.
So sad. You know, it's a bummer.
When? Did Gonzalez retire?
He might have been older than that.
No, he played. 37 Yeah, my bad. He played for a long.
Time I shorted it three years. I wanted it on this 49ers one
quickly. Are we taking Elijah Mitchell?
I've been a little spooked on. Nah, dude, I'm a Cody Schrader,
bro. Are you actually drafting him or
is that is that a bit? He he's legitimately going to be
like sub 5% owned in in baseball Mania 5I I I think it's like
Girendo is the Joe Williams Cody Schrader is the one who makes
the roster. That's that's all That's all I
need to know. I I think the Elijah Mitchell's
80% drafted Girendo 40 to 50 trader legit 1% it it feels it
just feels right. I don't know, maybe I'm maybe
idiot. He's definitely somewhat on
monitoring. I wouldn't be drafting him now
personally, but I don't know. I I I don't, I don't really know
to do with Elijah Mitchell. Like I can talk myself into
Shanahan loving him. I can also talk myself into
Shanahan hating him. I also didn't even put Jordan
Mason on here. I think he's maybe a sneaky
factor. No, I mean he he had his chance.
Like they were very, very clear last year that Mitchell was the
number two over Mason, so. Yeah.
I think Mitchell's the number two.
You have to keep in mind who the 49ers are.
They love running backs. They love draft and acquiring
them everything. So what?
You know, what's the deal? Elijah Mitchell is a is a on his
rookie year on his rookie deal. He's on the last year of it, so.
He's But it's pretty clear why they want another running back,
which is Elijah Mitchell has made it through zero seasons
healthy of his NFL career. He's the only guy who, like, he
doesn't even like play in games and then you'll find out like
next Thursday. That he's injured.
And you're like, how did how did this happen?
You didn't even play true. True.
This is what the Hell's Elijah Mitchell Little for Chris
recovery at 100% snap rate last week.
Oh, it's so like, it's so true. You'd be like, what do you what?
Wait, wait, why is Jordan Mason getting what is what is Tyrion
Davis Price is in the game. What?
What's? The deal?
I know it from doing waivers last year is that every week I
just have to write up Jordan Mason because be like, oh,
Elijah Mitchell, DNP for three straight practice for some
reason, even though he never plays.
So that's. What That's what this is about.
And they're they're going to have Gorendo or Schrader
available for those weeks and probably Mason is is off the
team. But like, I I think that they
ride it out with Mitchell. Like they seem to like Mitchell
when he's there. Now clearly they brought in CMC.
They don't trust him to stay healthy.
But I think is the #2 back like behind CMC you're in a
championship window. You know, Elijah Mitchell's
trustworthy, like he's the RB2. I think I would be like, think
of how think how unsurprised you are to be sitting in August and
find out that you know, Elijah Mitchell's like basically like
exiting with, you know, the first team he's done.
His night's over. Yeah.
Oh yes, he has count. His night's over, 'cause he has
count not with arresting him. Oh.
Yeah, that they're resting. I thought you were.
Going down, I thought you were going down the injury path.
But you no, no, no. I'm I'm going down the like it's
May. We think Arendo and Trader are
interesting in the preseason. We're gonna see Gorendo play
deep into the fourth quarter. We're gonna see Schrader like in
the final preseason game, like basically play the oh.
Gorendo's getting 22 carries in preseason week four and then
getting stashed on the practice squad.
I the the chat. The chat seems to be very upset
by this. They just they're not.
They're not. Gorendo could be the kick return
guy, right? That's what that's what they're
saying. I mean, Grendo was like a fine
kick returner in college. It's it's obviously, it's all
projection. I mean, I do want people to be
aware of the guy they're drafting.
This is a guy who played five seasons in college and got 1400
rushing yards. Total total.
Yeah, I think I'm, I'm signing with Korean.
I think we're over. I think the market's
overthinking this one. Having Mitchell priced down so
low, I would bump his odds up from the 60% I have now, like.
It's it's just people are just sick of it.
People are just. Yeah, people are just bored.
They're just bored. They're just bored of it.
Including none of theirs. The 49ers.
Report they're they're just wasting pigs back.
But they're. Yeah, yeah.
And we we should put more weight on Elijah Mitchell's rookie
season. Again, it it was somewhat marred
by. He had like he had 20 underdog
points in Week 17 last year. I know 'cause I those points
counted for me on the team. He was pretty good as a rookie
when he wasn't injured. He's been pretty good.
Just straight up. He's just been pretty good,
yeah. He's.
I don't really wanna talk. Talk about the Bears one.
Let's talk about the. Wait, wait, no, no.
The Bears one's like my favorite one.
All right, what's what do you have to say on the bears,
Khalil? Herbert.
Khalil Herbert is the answer here.
Guys, what are we doing? Khalil Herbert is good.
And guess what? If it's not Khalil Herbert, it's
'cause they traded him. Maybe he's the Cowboys guy.
Like, he actually seems like a dude who who you know.
Could I mean, that's the that's the fan fiction.
That's the fan fiction that everyone wants, is that he gets
traded to the Cowboys? Yeah.
The other thing about about Herbert is I think he's just
straight up better than DeAndre Swift as a runner.
Probably, yeah. So I think he.
Is the best runner on the team, like for free at the end of
drafts. I can't stop taking Klu Herbert.
I think he's an awesome pick. The problem, I guess the only
problem I have with him and I I've been taking a lot of him,
Crane, so I generally agree with you, is like the I don't know,
it just seems like the team doesn't like him and I don't
really know why, but they keep bringing in people to replace
him. It's just it's a little muddled.
But I do think, I think Swift, if there's a compliment to Swift
that makes sense in this offense, it makes a lot more
sense for it to be rather than Rochaun.
I I don't think so. No I no I think it is rochaun
cause rochaun is the big body. No, Roshan's like the pass
catching guy. Yeah, I think of Roshan.
Roshan is Semaj P Rein. I think that's how you should
think of Roshan. That's.
Literally. Yes.
That's right. Yeah.
So I think you wouldn't
compliment DeAndre Swift with Semaj P Rein.
I don't think it's Piron. Started out his career as like
an early down grinder. Semaj P Rein Fun Fact Big 12 All
time single game rushing yards leader Like 470 yards against
the University of Kansas. Yeah, he was the he was The
Grinder back with Joe Mixon in college.
Correct. Literally, yes.
Yeah. All right.
I'm going to leave for a little bit and I hope you guys will
still be arguing about this Bears backfield when I get back.
Yeah, we got to save the Chiefs, Chiefs one for a day.
Yeah. We got to save the Chiefs.
I mean, I don't the other part with the Bears backfield is that
I don't I don't take like any Roshan Johnson.
I don't I don't get. I mean now the counter I suppose
is that well if you think Kahlil Herbert gets traded then why
wouldn't you take some Roshan and then he thinks a clear I
don't know if he's going to get traded as why I like him getting
traded as like a little extra you know bonus layer on the bet
when I'm when I'm betting on a guy I think is really talented
and Kahlil Herbert or at least talented enough.
But I think he if he, I think if he's there he's he's playing
ahead of Roshan. And honestly, I mean, he's kind
of the Chuba to me. Like if I'm looking for a Chuba
this year, which we probably don't get a Chiron right, but we
might get a Chuba. Probably not.
He's very much in the Chuba mold, like just straight up, the
best, the best running back on the roster and the team isn't
that into it, but like there probably will be by the end of
the year. Yeah, that that makes sense to
me. I I don't really know what the
market's like obsession with Roshan is.
It's kind of two years in a row where I just like haven't got
it. We don't have all the advanced
stats on him. He didn't have enough rushes to
qualify for like NFL Next Gen. But you look at his PFF rush
grade, it's pretty close to the bottom of the league.
I think what he has going for him is he's a competent
receiver, you know, 34 receptions as a rookie, that's
pretty good on a volume basis. Now he didn't do anything with
them and the fact they brought in Swift just seems like a
signal to me that they wanted to upgrade the pass catching role
in this offense. So I think Rochon has a pretty
thin path to relevance this season, particularly like I I
think he needs an injury to Swift in order to be relevant or
a trade of Herbert. But yeah.
I've also just, I mean, Rochon was supposed to be this kind of
like, you know, oh man, he's almost like Miles Sanders behind
Saquon, like he was stuck behind Bijon.
But that's not really his fault because Bijon's so good and he's
going to come in here and be something in the NFL.
And then he got drafted later than people were thinking he
might. And then he like, didn't do
anything as a rookie, really. I mean, like, I don't know.
I just I just I just like waiting for evidence that he's
something you know he hasn't really flashed ever you know so
and and I I think Herbert is good is really what it comes
down to as well. Two years ago he had a 47%
success rate that was the 4th highest in the NFL.
Last year was lower but still 42% which is they don't number
these what 456-789-1011, RB 11 in between Naja Harris Zach Moss
just behind James Cook Kyron Williams.
So I don't know. He does what he's supposed to
do. You know, he's not, like, the
most explosive guy, but like, that feels like it should be
worth something in a, you know, an offense that's going to
mostly be built around a rookie quarterback.
A reliable, the most reliable running back Seems like he might
have a a shot of earning more work as the season goes on.
Yeah, I agree. It's still so strange to me that
DeAndre Swift got that contract he did after how he performed
last year in Philadelphia. That was odd to me.
So you know it. I don't want to compare it to
the Miles Sanders situation. I think Swift is likely has left
more left in the tank than Sanders did last year.
But it would not shock me if by the end of the year, the Bears
are like, Oh well, we made a big mistake with the Swift signing.
Why do you think that? Why do you?
I mean, Swift is coming off a worse year than Sanders was the
year before. Yeah, no, I I guess.
I don't. I guess I'm just saying, I think
Sanders hit like a very low percentile outcome coming off
that contract. It it's very rare for guys to
get the money that Sanders got at his age and completely
disappear. So that's what I'm saying.
Like I I don't think Swift is gonna completely fall off the
face of the earth in a way that Sanders had.
If if that makes sense. If I if I didn't know Sanders
was going to do that, I would have given them like equal odds
of falling off. I think Sanders was a better bet
this year than Swift is like, I think I agree with you, like
Sanders hit a really low percentile outcome to just
completely get wiped off. But it was, it was very, it was
a very real possibility. But I think this is like even
more of a real possibility. Like, keep in mind he was
drafted in the second round by the Lions and then they gave up
on him. But the the Eagles got him
basically for free because didn't they get a comp pick out
of it too? And then where is he now?
Not the Eagles. He's somewhere else.
I know, I know a third team did sign him and give him a weird
amount of money. But like, I don't know teams.
I've been listening to to Kevin Colespod and he's like he points
out that like it's actually not that bad of an idea to just like
make sure you get a running back and free agency because then you
don't spend your very, very, very, very valuable upside
capital, which is really what draft picks are on running
backs. So like you know whatever like
waste some money on a on a free agent running back, make sure
you get a guy to fill that role and then don't draft anyone is
actually kind of sharp. So maybe maybe there's something
there I don't know. But like you're the money
doesn't mean that much to me. He's a guy who's washed out of
two different situations, hasn't really been that good.
He showed some explosiveness early in his career, but it's
been a while now. I mean dude, he think how
explosive we would have expected him to be.
Like the two years ago. DeAndre Swift in our minds
entering the jail and Hertz rushing attack like Oh my God,
he was boring as hell. He couldn't muster like, any
useful games last year. It was weird too, 'cause it.
Do you remember that first game, how good he looked and how good
the offensive line looked? Like he was just running all
over the field. I'm like, wow, this DeAndre
Swift with the Eagles O line, Like this thing is really gonna
work. And then, like, he just never
looked good again. The rest of the like, it was so
weird watching that game and then the rest of the season just
being like oh he's he's nothing like it.
So I think part of why I think I still have like leftover DeAndre
Swift excitement in my mind just cause of how we thought of him
as a prospect. And it's probably best for me
just to like completely throw that in the trash cause of how
bad he was last year and like you pointed out, he washed out
in the line situation, so. That's what I'm saying.
I mean I I'd rather have Naji heroes rather easily have like
Jonathan Brooks. I'm I'm, I'm struggling with
Swift. I'm definitely struggling to
take Swift. Yeah, I've been clicking him,
even though I like, have don't like him at all.
So I'm glad that you're just reaching for those guys going
farther ahead. I'll probably, I probably need
to just stop taking him. Let's save the Chiefs one for
when Davis gets back, 'cause I think he'll have some thoughts
there. We're now moving on to the next
tier of running backs and on this list is guys where the
running back two is usually like not being drafted at all or it's
just completely uncertain who that's going to be.
I started off here with the Texans.
This is maybe the most certain of the uncertain situations.
Damien Pierce is getting drafted a little bit, but I don't know,
man, like they were playing Daria Goomba Wale over him in
the playoffs. So I like I'm looking for an
excuse to take someone else besides Pierce.
How are you? How are you playing this one
grain? I've taken Pierce, like
occasionally on Stroud stuff where like, I just like
desperate for another running back.
But it's like one of those ones where like, you know, like I
need to figure out a way to play this differently next time.
I can't let that happen again. You know Like it's just not
Pierce is just not good you know and I think mixing is capable
you know they and clearly the Texans do as well because they
could have let him play out this deal and instead they gave him
an extension before he he suited up for a single snap for them.
So I think you know mixing is so clearly better you're it's
really just contingent value that you would have kind of any
appeal if if they're if that contingent value materializes is
even the guy is it Jordan? I don't know.
I mean, I don't know. Like I really don't know
Darwick. Darwick is a snap eater though,
man. Like he if you need someone to
like play 60% of snaps in a pinch like Darwick can, he can
do it and he plays special teams so he'll be active and stuff.
Like, I don't know, I I struggle to to get excited about Damien
Pierce clearly. I I do too.
It's just it's so, so bad that, you know, the playoffs last
year, their season on the line, Damien Pierce doesn't register a
snap. Darian Goomba Wale plays 30% of
the snaps that That to me is like close to the death knell
for Damien Pierce. I think another underrated
aspect of this is I think people sometimes underestimate, like
stylistically, the different types of runners that are out
there in the NFL. Damien Pierce is a terrible fit
for the Shanahan scheme. I'm not a ball knower enough to,
like, tell you why, but basically everyone who knows
ball says that. It's just like, yeah, he
couldn't execute the Shannon scheme.
Devin Singletary could do it. Singletary's not that great.
But like, Pierce just straight up can't play in this offense.
And that's what happened to him last year.
It's the same offense. It's the same scheme.
Like, I don't know, I I think like he he could get caught,
traded. I just think the Texans are all
the way out on Pierce at this point.
So I don't have enough confidence to say, oh, you
should be drafting Jawar Jordan. You know, dare.
I do think it's just kind of a snap eater, not really someone
who's fantasy. No, we can't ever draft.
We can't ever draft dare. But yeah.
Jordan is the guy maybe keeping my eye on, like if if he emerges
throughout the summer, he's a guy that I'd be looking to click
in August and September. So Jordan is undersized college
committee back, but he had 1.27 yards per route run, which is
pretty good. 45% breakaway percentage, which is good, 193
lbs. But you know there is a history
of undersized, like breakaway runners with versatility doing
well in Shanahan's schemes, even if they're sixth round picks,
which he was. So I would definitely have my
eye on him in the pre season in training camp.
You know, if we start to hear any kind of drum beat, I think
he probably does become draftable because like Damien
Pierce is about as weak and incumbent RB2AS as we've got.
You know, like I think the bar for what Jawar Jordan has to do
is like a lot higher than what Gorendo has to do to to
displace, you know, Mitchell to be the RB2, for example.
I agree with that for sure. Jumping here to the Colts, this
is another interesting 1. Jonathan Taylor, obviously the
locked in RB1 here then I'd say it's a pretty straight up three
man competition between Evan Hull, Trey Sermon and Tyler
Goodson. Hull was injured all of last
year. We didn't really get a chance to
see what he would do or what the Colts thought of him in this
offense. Both Sermon and Goodson got some
run down the stretch when Taylor and Zach Moss were banged up.
So this one I'm I I'm not pretending to know who's going
to win this. I would like it to be Hull.
Obviously he's the most exciting guy here.
I don't have enough confidence though to be drafting hole right
now. I think you're you're running
pretty high odds of dead roster spot risk.
Curious what you think, Ryan? I I want to be in on Hall.
I think he's exciting. He's very athletic.
He ran a bunch of routes in college he you know 9.32 Ras,
1.66 yards per out run. So he was efficient on high
volume as a receiver, not like his his.
His elusiveness was pretty good and breakaway percentage was
kind of whatever. But basically you're kind of
like betting on athleticism and versatility.
But I do agree. I mean, we just don't know yet
and feels like kind of we could just be punting off a really
valuable roster spot. But he would be like, I don't
know. He might be like, #1 on my list
of, like, if I get the information that it that it's
him, then I'm going to be really hammering.
Because, like, we didn't, like, if we zoomed out back to last
year, we didn't know yet that it was Kyron.
You know, we we thought maybe it was Zach Evans.
And so I would put him in that kind of bucket of, like, as soon
as we hear, like, Oh yeah, I think it's Evan Hall.
Like, I'm drafting Evan Hall. But I we just don't, we just
don't know yet. And I think probably, I mean one
way to do it is instead of just maybe don't take a running back
in this range, take a rookie receiver and grab like,
prioritize like a Rico Doudel or a Vidal who have, like are truly
in uncertain backfields and we know we'll get at least some
chance to do something. Where did you guys land on Jawar
Jordan? Watchlist like strong.
Watchlist candidate. Strong, yeah, Strong Watchlist
candidate. And Pierce, I think is off my
board. He's he's off my board
completely, pretty much. Well, shouldn't Joe Mixon's
backup be higher than off my board and strong watchlist?
Or is the is the Ogumba Wale factor too big?
Yeah, so the Goomba walleye can eat so many snaps if they need
him, so he can come in and just play.
He can eat so many snaps without ever touching the ball.
He he is the the NF LS like ultimate snap eater like he he
cannot like Devin Singletary wishes he could eat empty snaps
like Dori Goomba walleye. Yeah, that's true, Yeah.
Yeah, I just, we talked about it a bit, but I just don't think
Pierce is a fit for this scheme at all, like.
OK, but that that's being too smart by half, isn't it?
Well, he saw last last year, so we.
Saw it last. Yeah, we saw it last year.
He's like, he was so bad and got replaced by like the most
replaceable running back. And then Dario Goomba Walli like
became RB2. Isn't Joe Mixon like maybe kind
of sub singletary esque as a rusher though?
No I no I don't think so. I mean, Singletary is so
Singletary is the most replaceable, but also the most
will replace you running back in the league too.
Like you don't bring a Devon Singletary to not have him play
80% of the snaps in Week 14. Yeah, that's what he's there to
do. Fucking guy's nickname is Motor.
Yeah, that's a problem. Imagine being imagine being
Damien Pierce and it's like, hey, here's the new run back.
We call him Motor. We call him motor.
I mean I I guess I I don't even, I don't think I'm that non
aligned with you guys. I just feel very strongly I'm
going to get to the end of drafting season and I'm going to
be like I just played this Houston Texans running back
thing wrong one way or the other right?
Either Joe Mixon learn 80% snaps and and 10 touchdowns buddy.
Or oh the guy who's really good as a rookie.
Actually, it it doesn't matter that he doesn't know shit about
the scheme and he just is the most athletic guy left.
No, I I feel pretty good. Pierce isn't isn't like the way
to play it. He could hit 'cause he could be
there with two and makes it gonna get hurt.
But like, it's not. I don't think he's good.
This is Amy Pearson. All good.
The Texans are a prime candidate for when Jeff Wilson is cut by
the Dolphins when Semaj P Ryan is.
Made so it's a good point. That's a good point.
So like. This could be Herbert, if
Herbert's mixes could be Herbert.
Yeah, do we say enough on the Colts stuff or Davis?
I don't think you got a chance to chime in any?
Any good pick, good pick. Are you are you take I.
So I definitely. I was with Crane that I really
wanted to be whole, and he's the guy I will pounce all over like
in August and September I'm. Evan Hall and Dylan Lauby are
like the Spider Man pointing meme, so that's where I land on
on that one. Let's go to Texans here.
This one we actually got. Are you taking him?
Do I take Lauby? Yeah, Yes.
Yeah, he's going to be, he's going to be, he's going to.
Worst case scenario, he's the passing down back, best case.
He's in like a 5050 timeshare with Zumir.
Isn't worst case just? I won't even say.
Worst case is worst case. Is he's he has plenty of time
for pickleball. Yeah, I was going to say, isn't
Amir Abdullah just? He's on the practice squad while
Abdullah is acting. Yeah, yeah, That's.
Worst case is you're actually hanging out with Dylan Lauby.
And you know what? If it's for the content, that's
fine. That's fine.
Here's the thing. Yes, and we did get some news on
Tank Bigsby. I just need, I need this out
there. No amount of Doug Peterson
telling me he believes in Tank Bigsby is going to make me
fucking forget what I saw. I mean, this is the worst
running back I've ever. I've never seen a running back
be this bad. There's there's also like Shawn
Siegel has this particular like understated like oh you're into
you're into this guy huh. Where you like you know like
you're like oh fuck this guy's he doesn't have a shot in hell
and that's what I I was like yeah Bixby you know he's got
he's got like decent draft capital pretty clear RB2 role
he's like it's yeah. OK.
Good luck. Yeah, I wish, I like.
I wish I pulled up his his stats, but it was like LA like I
think he maybe had like 10 opportunities last year in terms
of targets and touches and had like 3 fumbles and three drops
that turned into interceptions. Like, that sounds like an
exaggeration, but his stats? Were like no, it's it's not.
Not that far off from that, like.
There was one there was a fumble 6 and there was a a game
clinching like those Jaguars were driving to clinch the game
and the ball bounced off his hands into an interception.
Yeah, I mean it it's it's so bad that I wonder if Dearness
Johnson is actually draftable. Because, see, I think Dearness
Johnson is he's just Dari Ugo Bawale.
No, I think he's he's more like Khalil Herbert or something like
he's. Because he can actually rush.
You can actually. You can run touchdowns.
Yeah, he can run a little. No, not not he can't.
Come on, Come on. Come on, guys.
Dearness. Johnson.
He's been good. Like, I know he runs a 4740, but
he's been pretty good. Every time he hits the field, he
actually like can generate. You don't remember that Thursday
night game when Durnis Johnson played?
And probably. Good like 4.
Years ago, Sam, I don't think I'm ever gonna forget that game.
I was like, yeah, he's this guy. Yeah.
He was so good. Name a player who's had more
free agency dollars spent on them.
Ever in the history of fantasy football, who's never been in a
starting lineup than Di Ernest Johnson?
I mean, how many $1.00 Fab bids did you make on Di Ernest
Johnson last year alone? At least he probably made a lot.
Yeah. But he overtook tank like,
pretty quickly last. Year like, yeah, I don't, I
don't think I'm not putting that as a ribbon in his cap.
No, I'm not either. It's a ribbon as his cap.
If the task is overtake, tank OK.
The more the more important question is Keelan Robinson was
in Alabama to Texas transfer who really barely played but was
good at the combine. Was a very good kick and punt
returner in college. Probably made the probably made
the team for that, but given that the other guys are Tank
Bigsby and Uranus Johnson, isn't there a chance that the guy we
know is going to be on the 53 to return kicks might just be the
running back too. I mean how he couldn't be worse
than Tank Bigsby. Yeah, I mean, it's a great, it's
a great point. He had 12.
Carries as a fifth year senior. I'm literally getting ready to
learn Kela Robinson. Hey, 12 carries, but three
touchdowns, buddy. He played he played in 13 games
as a fifth year senior and had 12 carries look.
I'm not telling you. I mean, he had.
He had about as many rushing yards in colleges as as Isaac
Yirendo. Yeah, that's true.
Yeah, but he came in the league this year, so he cared next
year. I can tell Karendo if you tell
Karendo next year, people would be like.
Oh, oh. Keild Robinson is Keild Robinson
is a rookie, too. He's a.
Rookie.
Oh, is he? Oh, OK, I thought.
He was. And and weirdly, weirdly, he was
a fifth round pick too. We were just talking about
Rasheen Ali. He was a fifth round pick too.
Oh. I mean this.
This might be the guy. Davis might have just found the
guy. Why are we?
I'm I I. This guy, he He's a kicker
Turner. Come on, he's a kicker Turner.
OK, but Raheem Moser was a kicker.
Turner. Raheem Moser was A at Marine
Moser was a fucking track athlete at IUPUI, All right?
Like guys who get to the NFL, it's it just, it does not
matter, right? Like running backs, It just
doesn't matter if they get the ball.
It's why arguing about Gerenda versus Schrader based on their
college stats is stupid, because it just at the end of the day,
it's going to be like whatever Kyle Shanahan decides.
Yeah, I mean, but that it's it's not quite that true because like
you have to impress the coaches to get on the field.
Like there's there is some skill element even though it's not
like as a skill based position as wide receiver or whatever.
But I do. I think we want to like we want
to avoid writing off guys when they're completely free and
we're like huh it feels like someone could have this is I
mean Kyron right. The write off thing was his
athleticism. Oh, knowing that he's so
unathletic he couldn't possibly do anything right.
It's like no, I mean yeah he is actually really unathletic.
But like the opportunity is is presenting itself and there are
some elements to his profile that are interesting.
He was very productive in in College in Kyron's case and the
team loved him. So I don't know.
I mean, I think we should keep an open mind basically when the
situation is this uncertain. I mean, he's basically, he's
basically young Dari Ogun Bawale.
Like this is a guy who like had multiple like punt blocks and
stuff in college. Like that's the type, that's the
type of guy you're investing in. 442 forty 125 inch broad jump
58191 So he's he's is this the new who is who's the converted
wide receiver that played running back for them Davis.
Oh, Jamal Agnew. No, no, no, no.
Jamal Agnew was a a defensive backward of the wide receiver.
Yes, Jamal Agnew. The what?
No, no, no. This is like this is like 2017
or. Dinard, Robinson.
Dinard Robinson He. Was a quarterback.
He was a quarterback. Quarterback.
Yeah, that's right. Yeah.
I mean option.
Was Dinard Robinson? Well, Dinard.
You guarantee would have been a good NFL player, but he couldn't
put on enough weight. He was too small.
Yeah, well, I'm keeping an open mind with this one.
I really. Don't big watch list I I like.
Big Watch list. I mean, this is, this is the
same sweat as Sion Vaki is like, we got to see what position he
gets a list of that on the depth chart.
Like we need to. We need to know.
Like I need to look up like Jags OTAs.
Like, is this guy with with the fucking defensive backs or is he
with the running backs? I just.
I just had a little mini sweat making sure Keelan Robinson was
in the underdog player pool. Is in the.
Clear pool he is, yeah. No, Speaking of guys not in the
player pool, we got to jump back to the Chiefs 1.
Davis, we skipped it while you were gone, I think.
I I hate to say it. Ch is He might be the best 18th
round pick on the. Board he is the.
Best He's a pretty good eighteenth round pick.
He's gonna be, he's gonna be the RB2 like he actually got, he got
guaranteed money like he didn't get one of those fake contracts
like he actually got like a million and a half guaranteed.
That's that's backup running back.
Money. You know who he is now he's he's
Sumaj P right now, an overdrafted guy.
The expectations were too high on him early and now he's just
going to be for the next five years.
He's going to go around and be a passing down back for whatever
team. The young guy we're excited
about is they're just signing a one year deal.
Get in the way. He's like Sumaj P Ron without
Sumaj P Ron's only good trait, which is size.
He's He could be Jamal Williams, too, Like, it's one.
Of these guys. God, please.
Habeas Murray, Zach Moss, The current iteration of Zach Moss.
The current iteration of Zach Moss.
Yeah, he's totally, by the way, this, this Rhys Sammott guy, I
mean. He's 6.
Three, yeah. He's 6 three guys this he he's
like at best I think he's probably like Cordell Patterson
or something like kind of like design the like he's like he's.
A wide receiver. Amiko Amiko thinks they signed
him to be. Amiko thinks they signed him to
just be like a special teams guy.
I think he's the thickest guy this well and like a punt gunner
and like a blocker. Like just like, you know, like
total Andy Reid. Steve Spagnolo.
Just like just weirdness. Now Kiante Ingram got waved.
Not that not that it really matters The the chat keeps going
insane about Imani Bailey. Just do yourself a favor.
Go look at Imani, Bailey's player profiler.
Just go just go treat yourself to what Imani Bailey did at the
combine. I think some people in the chat
could beat Imani Bailey's Peter, like Peter Oberzett could beat
Imani Bailey's combine and everything, every number he
could beat. It's an Eric Prince.
Dad.
Davis What's the latest on the Generic Prince?
Speed the the third guy is just not going to matter this year.
Pacheco is going to get a lot of work and Chapter is going to be
the the spell back. Got it, McKinnon.
Mckinnon's not coming back for one last ride.
You don't think? I mean, he barely was like
playing for them last. Year pretty.
Done right He he like, He like wasn't playing and then suffered
a core muscle injury and then like try to get back for the
Super Bowl. Like, we haven't even heard the
chatter like last offseason they were like, yeah, you know, we'd
like to have him back and they just haven't even mentioned him
this year. Man $1.3 million guaranteed for
Clyde Edwards. Ilayer like that, it's.
Kind of a lot. It's kind of a.
Lot. It's kind of a lot it's it's
enough where you're like not cutting him for you know Deneric
Prince or whatever. Like you're he's the RB2 and
like you're not. You don't have Clyde Edwards,
ilayer on the roster to not be RB2 and.
That's the So that's The thing is there's literally no reason
on earth to resign the guy who's, like kind of like a
signal of failure for your organization if you don't like,
just need a guy who like kind of knows the system, knows the past
protections, knows the quarterback like it's it's just
all very obvious. Yeah, he's a good, good pick.
I don't get why he goes this late, 'cause we're.
Bored dude. We're.
We're bored. No, I I had a Bo even like I'm
just he's so boring. But you're right.
I mean he's just he is the RB2 there so we should draft him so.
And The thing is, he doesn't need to be good like on the
Chiefs. We've seen him do it.
Was it two years ago where he started the season just like red
hot on touchdowns? Or was that even last year?
Now now I'm freaking. It was two years ago.
He scored 20 points in week 5th, 16 This last year.
His only start. The only game, Yeah, no one
needs to be good. There was the whole thesis for
why he was a first round pick as a rookie anyway, Was it doesn't
matter who's good in the backfield, like you guys
remember? Not Damien.
Damien, I think was good. Do you remember Daryl Williams?
Daryl Williams. Was most.
Dare, Ogumbuwale asked running back ever, and he would just
score 2 touchdowns every week. Do you guys remember the Black
Mirror episode where they like, there's like soldiers and
they've got like the they they have like something in their
eyes, like it changes. Like their perception changes.
What you're. Seeing they take Imagine like
when we find because we've had one of those on with CEH called
the Joe Burrow LSU offense with Jamar Jason Justin Deverson and
then we then we just traded it for another one called Patrick
Mahomes and the fucking Chiefs. Imagine when we finally take it
off. Clyde Clyde over to Lair playing
in I don't know What's a, what's a funny one He he ends up being
the third down, passing back for like the Chargers with Justin
Herbert and and and Gus Edwards and it's just like, oh God this.
Is a dark episode. I've I've I thought of a good
feature for underdog. They should have the ability to
like change a player's name in the player pool.
Like I I want to change CHS name to something else so when I
draft him I won't think of CEHI. Just got Clyde, yeah.
Yeah, like there needs to be a way because that even though I'm
saying he's a good pick, like it's still gonna be so hard to
click him. Just put a little R next to him
so you can pretend he's a rookie.
What if you just? No, take his picture away so I
can pretend he's a. Rookie name.
What if you pretended his name was deneric Prints.
I would have 90% of them if I pretended his name was deneric
prints. Yeah, I actually think that's
something we could get done. Josh Downs doesn't have a
picture for some reason, so why doesn't Clyde Evanzi layer not
have a picture? We should just move the doctor
to remove Clyburn's everybody layer's picture.
If he was just Casey RB2, like someone just put in chat, if he
was just Casey RB2, he'd be he'd go ahead and Marshawn Lloyd.
Honest to God, he would. He would he.
Would, Yeah. No, I've got to.
I do. I love the SO, the Rashi rice
and the Clatter Ritzalaire thing.
It's like the only time that me being a biased Homer allows me
to make the correct gambling decision, whereas most of the
time it's me doing the wrong thing.
But I love when I get to make the emotional decision and it's
actually right. It's it's amazing.
That's beautiful. Yeah.
I just hate that I became a best ball D Gen. after the Patriots
stopped being good. Would have been, would have been
nice to have best ball like 50. Yeah, Well, I mean, even though
the end of the Brady era was not that fantasy friendly, it would
have been like a long it would have been, we're talking like
8-9 years ago when it would have been real winning.
It would have been really good. The Randy Moss year, That would
have been great. All right, let's hit the hit on
the last couple of these. Do we want to talk Raiders?
I feel like we're kind of a little biased maybe on this one,
but. I can't, I can't.
I can't give you guys a good answer here.
Yeah, I'm. I'm not clicking any of these
guys, even though is Amir White definitely not one of the
strongest strong starters in the league?
But I don't know, man, like what do what do you win when you win
with this one? Cran you have any thoughts?
I mean, it's not Madison. There's no point in clicking.
Alexander Madison lobby I've been intrigued by because I
thought he was actually like a pretty solid prospect
specifically because of the pass catching stuff like he he pops
for me now. He pops his left fourth round
run he pick type. So not like off the charts but
he was a total backfield dominator. 1.81 yards per out
run is really strong not like quite like elite elite stuff
like Gibbs or Rashad White or whatever but very good and and
he ran a ton of routes 24 routes per game that's yeah that's like
a nice combo for dude to come in who's pretty clearly I think
going to be like special teams and receiving as his role And
then Alexander Madison should be.
I mean Alexander Madison peaked as a good RB2.
He got the chance to be in RB one.
It was a disaster. He joins a new team.
I think Laobe could pretty easily be the RB2 and he catches
passes. But I don't know.
Yeah, we're probably. This also does sort of have a
little bit of a rookie fever vibe, doesn't it?
It it does a little. And it's just like, maybe I'm
wrong on this, but was Dylan lobby not like a pretty bad
rusher at UNH? Or at least not like a good one.
Yeah, He was not a. He was not.
AI think the film guys especially really did not like
him as a runner. That's what I worry about.
It's like if.
People said that but but Bruegler was like numbers.
Are OK. Bruegler was really high on him,
and in The Beast he was like like the the, the, the.
The Beast stuff is like very glowing.
I mean, he led all of college football in in total yards if
you include kick and bum returns.
He's he's elusive. That's a big if.
Yeah, what are you, What are you doing?
Who includes? That.
You don't include that. I do.
That almost got by me because I was looking at his elusive
rating. I mean, look, here's the thing.
It's a fun, it's a it's a fun pick.
All he has to do to be fantasy relevant is to beat out Amir
Abdullah for passing downs and that is not that high of a
hurdle. Yeah, I mean, I guess rookie
Brandon Bolden isn't isn't the worst thing in the world.
Brandon, you you joke. Brandon Bolden has had fantasy
relevant. He actually has.
He's been, like, wildly fantasy relevant over.
Like multiple times. Multiple.
Times it's like, so we just did the whole Jaleel McLaughlin bit.
I mean, if if you told me Lauby was on the Raiders roster week
one, like he just was on the like not even the 53 like active
week one, I I might take more Lauby receptions than McLaughlin
Really. Because if he makes the roster,
yeah, it's it's in a very specific role.
Like they know exactly what he's making it for.
The the problem is just the the wide receivers and tight ends
are going to take up such a huge share of the pass catching in
Las Vegas compared to Denver. I mean that That's where I think
I would disagree is that they're not going to be scheming out the
pass game through the running backs in this offense.
I don't, I don't think. Yeah.
No, that's true. I mean it's it's probably
Minshew or Connell. So they'll be they'll be dumping
off some so. I mean Minshew.
Minshew is a real dump off artist.
Yeah, I just think they'll be dumping off to Jacoby Myers and
Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer and Trey Tucker and all these
guys. But I see what you're saying
with the quarterback fit. It's not bad for a pass catching
running back. I think these these next two
teams, I think these are to me more interesting watch list
candidates. Cause The Jets and Eagles both
project to be playoff teams this year in the NFL, and no one's
really drafting the running back twos.
We'll start here with The Jets. I am this you're you're drafting
Braylon. You're.
Drafting Braylon Allen the whole time.
The thesis, not now the. Thesis.
The thesis did not change, bro. He's better than a Band of
Canada. I kind of like Isaiah Davis, but
like there's not going to be a like a camp competition between
IS. Is he better than a band of
Canada? This team might run a four 7.
Who cares, bro? He's big.
He's strong. Braylon Allen is what they
wanted to do with Dalvin Cook. Remember them just running
Dalvin Cook in the line time after time after time last year
is like like, oh, Dalvin Cook. It's crazy.
He was on the team Dalvin Cook last season for The Jets.
Got 67 carries before they waved them and 20 targets.
Like, obviously Breece ended up getting a ton and they ended up
benching Dalvin Cook for Michael Carter.
But and. Then cutting Carter.
Cutting cart there there is. There is.
I I I would say conservatively about 100 rushes and 35 running
back targets available behind Breece and I think those will be
valuable targets, especially because Rodgers has always been
a cheat code for running backs like running backs who play with
Rodgers get tons of free points and I think Braylon Allen is
good. No one else agrees with me, but
my thesis remains. The same I don't disagree that
Braylon Allen could be good. You're definitely higher on than
I am. But yeah, I also think Isaiah
Davis is kind of interesting. I do too.
And I thought a Band of Canada was a pretty interesting
prospect last year. Who, to my eye, looked pretty
good when he was out there. We don't have like, any of the
advanced stuff 'cause he. Sounded like an attitude thing
with him. It sounded like it sounded like
the coaches were not the if I if I remember correctly that could
be maybe I'm slandering him for no good reason.
But in my in my memory that is what happened when when the
Dalvin Cook stuff came out, it was it was it seemed to be like
personality based. Maybe I'm slandering him for no
good reason is up there with. Obviously.
Well, I I can't. I would.
You want me to go you? I can't.
Yes, I mean if you can find it,
be great. All right, I'll go, I'll go
dive. I'll go dive through four pre
season notes from the fucking New York Jets last offseason.
I'm excited to hear what you find.
Is he a Bannacanda attitude? I have.
I've mentioned the dynasty tearing of these guys.
A band of Canda, Braille and Allen both come out as third
round picks to me. And Isaiah Davis is a fourth
round pick. So to me I'm like here's three
dudes. They're all kind of interesting.
They all have Fred flags. You know a band of Canda you'd
say is probably the least likely given that he had a a shot and
then they drafted 2 dudes. So they so he's it's probably
not him, but it could be Davis. It's not a 0% chance to be a
band of Canda who's actually got some athleticism, unlike Allen.
So I don't know. I just, I think these are all
watch lists guys and we see who the RB2 is and we draft that
too. But I wouldn't put it at much
higher than like 40% that it's Allen.
Yeah, I think that's. 30 Yeah, I think that's about right.
I I think I put 30 because, you know, I think it's a third, a
third, a third or maybe you want to say 3535 thirty or something,
right? But I think, honestly, I don't.
I don't think The Jets know who their RBT was right now.
So this is, this is pure Walsh's territory for me.
Yeah. Yeah.
Zach Zach Rosenblatt in most recent Jets roster Battle's
article says is the coaches do not trust is the Abana Canda
which is code word for they think he's thick.
Yeah. That's that's not great and it
would make a lot of sense given how athletic he is and how
explosive he is. And how bad their team is and
they spent two picks on a running back when they already
have Breeze Hall like they like The Jets.
The Jets are like seriously going to have to play like Jason
Brownlee as at wide receiver this next year.
Like they have nothing and they are spending picks on running
backs. Yeah, yeah.
I mean, this is the thing we didn't even discuss.
It obviously just comes down to who Aaron Rodgers wants in the
field. So that's that's what we got to
figure out at some point this offseason.
Let's go to the Eagles here. Last one we have on this list,
pretty muddled. I think it's basically down to
Shipley and Kenny Gainwell, Todd Davis, Price also lurking
around. I wouldn't really put any any
odds in him of winning it, but yeah, you guys have a a lien on
Shipley versus Gainwell in Philadelphia.
Gainwell, I would put this one at like 50% gainwell.
Yeah, gainwell, this this should maybe be on the other list.
It's just gain, man. Gainwell's he's almost like
Daria Goomba Wale like he's he's just a snap eater.
Who doesn't? Well, now, now he's Boston
Scott. Now now it's it's, it's it's he
gets to eat. Boston Scott snaps and just be
out there 30% of the time. Not even.
I don't even think he's a good pick, but.
Like basically any running back stat you want to look at over
the past three years, like Kenny Gainwell's always ranking like
close to dead last. Like he's just, he's just really
not good. But the Eagles like him, so I
don't know. Yeah, and like, you know, you
just there is kind of a thing with running back where for an
RB2 there's something to be said for a guy who you just throw out
there and doesn't screw anything up and he runs the play supposed
to run and no one gets sacked or whatever.
Like they signed Saquon Barkley. They clearly don't want to lean
on Gainwell, but like if you have Saquon Barkley, like are
you trying to like mix in a rookie behind him or you just
like be like all right. And we know, we know Kenny
Gamewell can do the job. So he it's his job.
Where did will Shipley get drafted?
He was actually fourth round that that is kind of interesting
that I mean that's the same draft capital as Bucky Irving,
Ray Davis, guys that we're much more confident in.
I I guess I'm curious, I I don't have an answer to this question.
Like what is it about Shipley that makes us so much less
interested in him than someone like Davis Irving?
I mean, I think he's like a slightly worse prospect by my
stuff, but not. I was going to go with his.
His name kind of is kind of bad, right?
Will Shipley. I mean, yeah, he's a guy that
like I know Sean Segal really liked, is like, you know, kind
of the Devi side of things and was seen as this potential star.
And then it didn't really come together fully.
He ran a bunch of routes. It's kind of like a passing down
guy, but he had a 0.953 yard sprout run, which is not.
It's not. And he he ended up in a a
timeshare his final year in college which always that that
to me always weirds when it's you end up in a timeshare your
last year with a younger player that that's kind of.
Always. It's like, what's going on there
that can't be like what? Like we this, this other random
guy we thought was better than you, that that's always weird.
Yeah, no, I mean, but he does seem, he does seem to like be a
maybe a little bit more high upside than a Ray Davis.
You know, where it's like he's like if one of these guys was
like a true star, who would not? And I'm not talking about like,
because they get like a bunch of short goal line carries, but
like, one of these dudes is like, oh shit, this dude's
really good. It's probably Shipley and not
Davis, right? Probably.
And the other thing that's weird about it is like to me the
stylistic compliment to Sequon Barkley would be like the
success rate guy, right? The guy who can like get the
short yardage stuff and neither Shipley or Gainwell really
profile as that so. I think Gainwell kind of does or
does he not? Was his success rate horrendous?
I actually don't know. I just he strikes me more as
like the pass catching archetype.
I haven't really looked into the success rate stuff on him.
I don't. Think he's.
I don't think he's qualified in either year for the NFL.
Next Gen. stuff, so. Yeah, he's just bad, dude.
He's he's just bad at everything, honestly.
Like, look at his PFF rush grade is like close to dead last.
Even if you broaden it to like people with over 20 carries,
like it's it's really bad. Oh, yeah, OK, I I wanna.
Do. That.
No. I I'm kind of intrigued.
Shipley's watch list guy for me that.
Makes sense but but yeah. We We've gotten 2 hours into ADP
chasing, and we've probably not touched on the number one
uncertain backfield to figure out given the amount of carries
and points available the the Los Angeles Chargers.
Yeah, we can go to that. I'm I'm playing it through Vidal
and Gus Edwards and I'm basically pretending JK Dobbins
doesn't exist. So.
I'm doing. I'm doing the same thing but
like doing the. Same thing too.
But but isn't there just like a pretty disastrous chance that
we're? I sometimes see JK Dobbins go by
and I'm like, that would really suck if if.
He's. JK Dobb like imagine the fight.
Like finally JK Dobbins gets healthy and he just stays
healthy and he just plays 17 games and just shoves it.
It's just the the one, like first year off the Achilles
tear. I'm just gonna need to have that
running back beat me before I ever bet on it at this point.
Like it just seems like such a fact that the running back off
the Achilles tear is just such a bad bet that.
Didn't it happen? Kind of beat us?
No. We survived it.
But he kind of beat us, right? Who did He didn't?
Didn't he, like, completely lose his job the next season?
He came back for the playoffs. He came and like.
He came back. He had that week, I think it was
week 15 or 16 and. Some James James.
James Robinson could have beaten us, but then he.
Yeah, I remember what you're talking about, Granny.
He was awful that year. Like basically was the worst
pick on the board and then just randomly had a good week and
like week. Yeah, no, I don't.
I don't remember where he was drafted and if, if it was any
with any capital whatsoever, then he didn't beat us because
he had. He was like 1/5.
He was like a fifth or fourth round.
Then he didn't. Share But Week 16, he had 23
carries, 118 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 receptions, 29
yards through the air. So that would really fucking
suck if it comes from JK Dobbins at this price is my point.
Not that we should ignore Achilles, but like.
It does make it's like and that was also yeah, who's?
Who's not good? But Dobbins also meant like
Dobbins never came back really from that the multi ligament ACL
tear either. Like you, you have to take so
many hoops. What do you mean?
Didn't he tear his Achilles like the first game of last year?
So that's not that's not really fair like he well he came up
with the multi ligament and then tore his Achilles like the
first. Game.
No. There was a full, full season in
between that Crane. Oh, you're right, you're right.
Yeah, and he just was like out of the lineup and like, not very
good. I don't.
Know. Yeah.
He looked real gimpy that one game and he like, yeah, yeah, he
got the he got the surgery again.
Yeah, you're right. There was a whole year.
It would be like, if. Yeah, yeah.
Go ahead. Yeah, no.
I was just gonna say like if Dobbins was literally like a
eighteenth round pick, I wouldn't completely fade him
again. I don't want to just come back
to like Tyler Algier and Antonio Gibson for every every pick, but
it's just like, I don't know. I'm just not.
I'm. I'm not gonna take JK Dobbins.
I just don't think a running back coming off in Achilles tear
is gonna beat me. And there's running backs in
that range that I think are just pretty solid picks.
So Vidal's also right there. I don't know.
Kamani Vidal sadly though would fit in really nice as the third
leg to the Justice Hill, Darwin Thompson, Kamani Vidal running
backs to win in the seventh round of the FFPC main event and
then never had one startable fantasy game as a rookie.
I just, I just sadly can can see in my crystal ball and and see
that trilogy being written. Yeah, what do you think?
What do you think, JK Diamond's dead cap hat dead cap hit is
this year? When you're dealing with the 1st
$50,000, I know that's exactly right.
Yeah. I I know.
I knew it. Yeah. 50,000.
Yeah, you you can either win, you could.
JK Dobbins gets cut and wins one puppy.
Wins. Wins the puppy one.
Yeah, slow drafted on the plane. That that contract is like an
extended tryout. Yeah, it's.
Yeah, like he's not even on the team yet.
Yeah, he really. He really should be treated like
a camp invite or whatever. Yeah, it's like a camp invite
contract. Like it is.
Yeah. I don't know.
I Vidal is normally somewhere I'd be like, what are we doing?
Like this dude was what, he's a six round pick.
Very kind of whatever prospect. But like I'm sick of just like,
I'm not gonna like, I'm just not gonna do it.
If if he's Damien Pierce, that's enough.
If he's literally rookie season Damien Pierce, it's enough like
he can he can come in here. He can take the job for a year.
You know if he if he's like a little worse than Pacheco, more
than enough. Like the bar is just so low for
what even has to be. I mean Gus Edwards.
Like I know Gus Edwards has been somewhat efficient, but it tied
to Lamar Jackson as a as A2 down banger.
Like yeah, you should probably be pretty efficient.
I don't know if it's going to go as well.
I mean you know Justin Herbert's a good quarterback but he's not
going to open up lanes the way Lamar Jackson did.
So I think Videl, I mean, he could.
He's a true like, you're swinging for a Homer or you're
striking out. But the homer's real.
Like, again, we probably don't find a Kyron Williams.
But if there's anyone who could be like a James Robinson, this
is this is the James Robinson architecture.
And and Bull signal. We can't agree on how to
pronounce his last name, just like we couldn't agree on how to
pronounce a Jane's last name. That's right.
Yeah, I think it is Videl, because keeps saying Videl.
But yeah, I mean, remember the Jaguars that year we were into
Devon Azigbo and? Ryquil Armstead.
Ryquil Armstead, by the way.
This is such inside fucking fantasy football history he
maybe could have been the guy. He got long COVID and was like
in the hospital the whole season.
Oh yeah. Isn't that fucking nuts?
This is such a dumb game we play and like, why do I even remember
that? But.
It's actually so crazy that, so wait, it was Fournette got cut.
That's what started the whole thing.
And then everyone was so confident it was either a Zig,
Bow or Armstead. Like people weren't really
talking about Robinson. James Robinson, even in even in
main events like that, like were taking place like as the season
was starting, he was like a tenth round pick at the absolute
earliest. Yeah, no, I mean if someone and
John C in the chat asks how Hobbins Dobbins is not the home
run, especially at the lowest ADPI think.
I mean certainly Dobbins could be a home run, but it just feels
like with the Achilles tear, it's sort of like he's less of a
home run and more like trying to throw the football over the
mountains sort of like vibe like you're you're it's a long.
It feels like a long a real long shot to me.
But I don't know. I mean that's why I brought up
the K Makers thing where like the bar is very low for what you
even need. Like if you got one spike week
at the end of the season, you know, with the lowest ADP of the
three, like that would probably be enough.
It's just I don't. I kind of don't even think he
makes the team. I kind of don't think he does
either. What's also different about the
Acres thing is we saw Acres come back in the playoffs the season
before he got drafted pretty highly.
So we'd already seen him come back and he wasn't great in the
NFL playoffs when he came back, but he was used as like a
workhorse. It was actually kind of crazy
how they used him down the stretch coming off that Achilles
man. Like yeah, I get what Jon in the
chat is saying, but like you just can't.
You can't think of JK Dobbins like as the prospect anymore.
Like he's coming off the two worst injuries you can have as a
running back, a multi ligament ACL tear and an Achilles tear.
Like, he's not. He's just not gonna be the same
guy. He also is not the the the guy
that people thought he was. Even when he played, especially
with Greg Roman, he never really caught passes ever at Ohio State
or in Baltimore. I mean also the, I mean, it
sucks, 'cause he he's dealt with so many injuries and he never
really got to play out his rookie season.
But he's he's also like, he turns 26 this year.
Like, he's probably like in a world where he stayed healthy
and probably like, I don't know, he slowed down last year.
That isn't that. Isn't that.
So, like if he if he was just like finishing out his rookie
contract, we would be like, I don't know man, I'm probably,
I'm probably more interested in this Vidal guy, this Vidal guy
anyway. It would he would literally be
going in like pick 85 and I'd be talking about him like I just
talked about DeAndre Swift and I'd be drafting some dude in the
last round as as his backup. Like I don't know to to then bet
on a dude entering a second contract of this after this
injury history. Like look man, if they had given
him like. A2 year deal with like
$3,000,000 guaranteed. I would yeah I would be singing
a different tune, but like this is legit.
Cut risk like out of the league risk potentially.
Like they didn't give him any money.
Yeah, the last last thing I wanted to talk about here or we
can we can talk about both these teams if we want.
But you said Korean. If there's anyone who's gonna be
a James Robinson of Kyron Williams this year, the dolls on
the short list, Another guy I would put on that short list is
Donta Foreman. And maybe that's a little bit
too. He's going to be this year's
fiance foreman. He could also just be this
year's Dante Foreman, but I think we have pretty good
evidence now. OK, I'm talking out of both
sides of my mouth now because Dante Foreman, Speaking of
Achilles stairs, he is like the one guy to come.
Back four years. Though, and it took yeah, it
took him a really long time, but he's just been so good as a
rusher the past couple seasons. Now teams haven't really wanted
to commit to him, but last year he did have a game of 33 PPR
points. I think he had a like 3
touchdowns in that game. I I just think he's straight up
a better rusher than Jerome Ford.
And if Nick Chubb isn't coming back till, I don't know, week
eight, week nine, week 10, that gives Foreman a lot of time to
have a lot of usable weeks. And then you get the upside if
if Chubb can't come back from that knee injury again, it's a
really unique like devastating knee injury that Chubb is coming
back from. I think he does have some upside
of just being like the the lead rusher of the entire season.
So yeah, he's a guy I'd throw in the mix as being potentially,
you know, a big hit from the later rounds running.
Back I think it's a great call. I mean, he doesn't have a ton of
money. This dude has been like just
continually disrespected by the league.
Like he just every year he gets an opportunity, he looks good
and then he's on a new team. I don't really get it.
Like I remember the the Titans chose Dontrelle Hilliard over
this dude and then he's been like that was 2 productive
seasons ago. Like, I don't, I don't get that
part of it at all. But like this is a really good
situation for him to kind of emerge ahead of Jerome Ford, who
you know, they kind of trusted. He was one of these very trusted
RB twos but did not look very good in a bigger sample.
I don't think Chubb is going to be the same coming off the knee
tear like it it was. He's an older back already.
Second time he's had a multi ligament knee tear in the same
knee. I think Foreman is a pretty good
pick. I think he's a pretty good pick.
It's also one of those things where you need to be thinking
like portfolio based as opposed to even like specific teams like
if you have no Nick Chubb and no Jerome Ford.
Yeah. What is it that you're saying?
Are you saying the the Browns won't run?
The Browns won't be successful running, you know, It's like and
and I found myself in that position just kind of the last
couple days thinking about it like, well, I hate Chubbs ADP
and Jerome Ford seems like a bad pick.
So what is it that I'm hoping to accomplish here?
But just like projecting the Browns to not be a successful
offense or running the ball, so I don't.
Maybe I need to start taking Ford.
I take Ford a little bit and mostly when I have like a
Jonathan Brooks or something like that, but he goes a little
2 high. I think Foreman to me, Foreman's
the way to play it, 'cause he's the best of the two, right?
Like if Chubb comes back and he's Chubb, he's obviously way
better than Foreman. But your if your bet is kind of
that you're you're not buying that then I think Foreman is
probably the more talented running back of between him and
Ford. I think he is as as a rusher.
I guess we'll see how much the Browns trust him to do
everything in their system. But yeah, just as a pure rusher,
I think it's it's pretty clear that Foreman's more talented
than Ford. So yeah, I I agree with you
Davis. That's a good point.
I haven't been taking either Chubb or Ford.
I guess last question after you guys in this backfield like at
what ADP does Nick Chubb start to get interesting 'cause I I do
think we might get a window where he's draftable once the
news comes out that he's on the PUP list.
We always know the market is gonna double count these things.
Like I'll throw an ADP if if Nick Chubb is going at ADP of
130 for you. Guys, yeah, once.
Once he gets past Chase Brown, then, then I'll take him.
We've we've had him at 1:20 in the rankings the entire time.
One of the few guys were were you know a handful of guys where
ADP has no say at all. He's just chilling in the
rankings. ETR actually I think is right
around there as well. So I don't know if the market
comes down there. I would I would mix in some
because the one thing you you can say for Chubb is that the
production will be back weighted.
So if I can mix him in as purely like you know kind of like
around where I'm thinking about Gus Edwards.
But instead of like a a guy who hopes like a Jonathan Brooks
come along and you know have upside late in the season.
Chubb provides like some shaky, but you know at least some late
season upside to to a backfield or maybe I feel like, you know,
I can, I have more than enough early season stuff.
I think that I think that's right.
All right. We gotta talk Cowboys, I said.
There's not going to be a Kyra in this year cause 'cause but
there might be a James Robinson and that was James Robinson.
Could be Vidal, right? The rookie guy.
The the I'm Harold, the rookie but second year guy who just
might straight up be the starter.
It's Dowdle. Dowdle might just straight up be
the starting running back for the.
Cowboys Crane. He's a fourth year player, so
he's not not exactly 1 to 1. Second year that I've known
about him. Second year that he's gone
touches. Oh, I love the.
Idea of grand just like manually tagging players in his database,
not how many years of it on the league, just.
Based on how? Many how many years he's known
about how many. Years I've known.
About now. Now, to be fair.
To be fair, before last season he had a grand total of of seven
NFL touches, and I don't believe he played in 2022 at all, other
than on special teams. They they just were not
concerned at any point in the offseason about filling the
running back hole. And then they.
No, they were. Michael Elliot who's we know
like we saw Zeke, we know we can be APR scam.
I think if you're taking Zeke, so am I.
It's not a big deal. We can do it.
But Dowdle's going after Zeke now, and like by what?
There's like a decent ADP gap of over 10.
Yeah, 1515 picks, Yeah. Yeah. 15 picks.
Dowdle I think is like you're getting the RB2.
I mean who who's displacing him? He was the clear cut RB2 last
year behind Pollard. It's not going to be deuce
Vaughn. So you're getting the RB2 for
sure and there is some chance that he is that he's just the
starter. So I I don't know to to me he's
like a very, very easy click right now.
Did we do the closing line value on him yet?
Because that would be a guy. That I want to pick.
I don't know. Someone took Zeke.
I forgot if someone. Took, I think.
I think someone took Zeke. I'm going to take Dowdle.
Yeah I I think he's one of the best picks to.
I haven't been taking him like in every draft because in the
pre draft stuff I literally was taking him in every draft like
he was going at pick 18190. I'm like guys even if they draft
Jonathan Brooks like Rico Dowdle can still be a great pick at
pick 18190. Like I I don't get how he's
possibly going this low. I still don't get how he's going
at pick 142. I my only guess is that the
market is baking in some like Semaj P Rein, Jeff Wilson,
Khalil Herbert stuff. But come August, September, if
these are the two guys on the team in the backfield they
should both be going like pick 100 like it it or or maybe
earlier like it doesn't. It doesn't make any sense to me.
The second like thought experiment I think is
interesting to do with Dowdle is he was the clear RB2 all of last
year. We just kind of got unlucky in
that Tony Pollard, even though he was bad, he was healthy
enough to play a full season. So we never got the Rico Dowdle
spot start. If we just got like one Rico
Dowdle spot start last year where he had 20 carries, 100
yards and a touchdown, which easily could have happened if if
Paula was injured, where would he be going?
Like if we just got one of those spot start games, like I think
like a lot, a lot higher, right? I mean, he'd probably be going
where I mean. Where Chase Brown is at least,
right at least. I mean, no, I mean, he could be
going where like Zach Moss is or like, you know, yeah, he's
probably up around there, maybe a little bit behind, maybe, like
maybe he's the last guy in that tier.
Yeah. But like 40 picks higher with
one spot start. I agree.
I think it's a good point. Yeah.
All right, two hours 10 we're we're fully back in ADP chasing.
Well, yeah, I was going to say we're the vac levels are so
fucking high. We're we.
Are it's a slow week? Nothing to talk about.
Two hours. You know what we need to we need
to unironically do next week. Or do we have a guest for next
week, Sam? Next week is, we're still
figuring out next week it's Memorial Day, so we're TBD on
what's going on next week, so. We next time we do a show,
whenever that is. Sometimes I can't.
I can't do Tuesday or so. When we do it, we should, we
should unironically, without prefacing.
There actually probably isn't going to be a Pukanukua this
year. We should do our our who could
be this year's Pukanukua analysis?
Yeah, that's a good topic for a show.
Probably no one else, probably no one else, no one.
Else, no one else is doing that. I'll tell you this much, no one
else is talking about Keelan Robinson on May 20th.
Dude, only we're the only show. Someone, someone, put a time
stamp in that 'cause? I just want something to victory
lap in Week 4 when Keelan Robinson has 8 carries for 23
yards and a touchdown and a blowout Titans victory.
All right. Couple announcements we have
that's fair merch I believe you can find that in the show notes,
but Pete just put that out. So if you want to get, that's
fair TS, John C. Hit me with the That's fair
earlier with my with my JK Dobbins point.
That's fair. Derogatory, I believe.
I think it was derogatory. If if it's in quotes, that's a
good sign it's. That's a good, very good sign.
It's derogatory. Yeah, So you can get your,
that's fair, TS. Like I said, Will probably be
back next week on Tuesday because of the holiday.
I'll have an update about that later.
Otherwise, if we take a week off, we will certainly be back
on the third crane. Anything you want to say about
legendary upside? Anything else you got going on?
Just sign up for Legendary upside.
Got underdog rankings, DraftKings rankings updating
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yearly subscription. Awesome, Davis.
Anything take gas? Anything else you want to
mention? No, take Gas Sports Credit
Fantasy Football Podcast, all the goods.
Actually, I think I'm going to bring back the newsletter this
summer. Oh nice.
Yeah, for for not for for for non fantasy football.
Like super specific stuff. More, More.
The Leone style. Yes, yeah, I'm going to, I'm
going to copy Mike. That's that's the that's the
idea. So be on the lookout for that.
And yeah, we'll, you know, keep drafting.
You'll see me, you'll see me in the streets.
If you're if you're drafting 5 puppies at any given time over
the next week, you'll probably run into me.
I'll I'll see plenty of you, Davis.
All right. Good stuff, guys.
We'll see you all next week. Peace.