All right, it's been a while since been Gretchen.
I have done. Just a two-man ship chasing, but
our friend, Pat crane he's to read.
She's off, scuba diving in the Maldives doing, Lord knows what.
But yes, it's Gretchen. I hold down the fort.
We're going to look at some early 2023 ATP, because that's
the only way been Gretchen. I can get to winning 2 million.
If we're analyzing these Trends early here in February, we also
get some of our Super Bowl thoughts.
All of that tonight on ships, chasing Pat.
Friar homos. I just realized that we've like
round-trip ticket Darius, Tony thing, you know, we're like with
from Pat, having his feet up, like a gas that anyone could
ever draft this guy to be like, holy cow, he's actually really
efficient to like, oh, this bottomed out with the Giants to
holy shit. He's on the chiefs were going to
the moon, and then be like, oh, he played one play.
And like before his hamstring again, is probably never gonna
suit up for the Chiefs again. Right?
What a fucking helicopter? Yeah, it has been a roller
coaster, the whole admitting that.
He's good. But then also like, it doesn't
matter because King on the field, big is wild.
It's not really the Maltese that he was in like he's the funny
thing is it I do like doing the bit that Pat is too rich to do a
show with us but he had legitimately scheduled a
three-week scuba diving trip. Well, in advance of doing two
billion dollars key, it is, it's off of Vietnam.
He had told me about this in detail.
I think it was in the summer and basically the trip was, I guess
they've been doing these scuba diving trips.
They've gone to like the Dominican and places.
There's been this place off of Vietnam and it's like very
isolated and you have to take a boat all the way out there.
Like all the scuba diver heads are like this is the spot.
You have to go and it's really hard to get to yada yada but
they finally like, booked their thing to go do this a long time
ago. And so yeah, he truly is
completely isolated right now in the middle of nowhere off of
Vietnam scuba diving. So it is what it is.
It's incredible. He did mention.
I think I'm one of the recap pause or something or maybe
behind the scenes to us that he booked that before he Rapid the
team that want the tomb of. Yeah, even drafted it in the
summer, like good thing to do between booking and going on.
A massive vacation is to draft. And when two million dollars.
I mean that's a good Loop to cool until we find that like
international waters off of Vietnam or actually like a tax
Haven and he's never coming back or something.
But yes, that will be back in a couple of weeks or at least we
think he'll be back you know. Maybe he'll have found God,
maybe he'll go the sfb. You know, the FTX effective
altruism route, you know, maybe he'll come back like this
hippie, that's decided to donate his money at all.
Is causes, I mean, really everything's on the table been.
Yeah, I can't wait to find out. What is it three weeks we're
already through to. So we're, I mean, one more week
here. We're going to Pat back.
We're going to get, we're lost stories or, or we'll never hear
from again. One of the other Kyle is just
absolutely sick of our small talk.
He is hammering. What are thoughts on Calvin
Ridley? Pretty good.
Can we do a little Play Kyle. I see your question, but let's,
let's see. Sid to this of it here.
Shout out to everyone in the chat, you know, Gretchen, I had
talked a little bit to about and with Pat about like, kind of
what we wanted, the offseason scheduled to be.
I think it was last year and then two years ago, Gretch was
the infamous me, and Pat have Topshop brain, period around
this time. So we're going to figure out
what our schedule is. Maybe we'll take a little bit of
time off every other week. I don't know what it's gonna end
up being but, you know, we'll still be around until we're
fucking. Ting every single Wednesday
night until the season starts. Yeah, for sure.
We'll do some stuff. I mean the 2022 season was a
long arduous season for a lot of us.
A lot of injuries. A lot of a lot of stuff there.
Where I know I got done and I was like, I need, I need to
detach a little bit. This year, I decided to do.
I've read three books, already, Pete.
We did the long. Thanks in December.
I hadn't read a book all of last year.
Three books. In January.
Holy cow? What The what's the highlighter?
The best one you've read so far? Oh, they're just, I mean, kind
of patrons. Two of them were like
psychological thrillers that my, my wife's a big reader that she
got me onto that. I liked once called the one was
called the last one. I'm sure it was the Killer's
wife. The one before was the silent
patient. Those are both good.
But like gimp page turns. I read Animal Jam days.
They're really good in terms of like getting back into reading.
They're good. Yeah, then the other one was
the, the sequel to the 1995 movie.
Heat, was really was written by Michael Mann as a novel just
released last year, 27 years later.
Yeah, to. And that was pretty good.
I mean, I know, you know, I think all of us we were talking
in our group chat with Leone and how, you know, getting back in
the rhythm of reading as hard. And I do think, just like
dumping into something that's super easy to read is a really
good way to train yourself into that habit.
I need to get back to that spot. I do that with a lot of like
nonfiction. Because we read a lot of stuff
online. And so it's like, you know,
reading a biography or, you know, you go reading the fucking
perfect, pass about the Air Raid Offense, it's like not that big
of a leap from what we read online all the time.
So it's good to get back in those habits.
That's what I was thinking was like this is like a longer you
know Prestige article that I would read online that a get
into this like several thousand words and I love I love those
long reads on online when they're engaging right?
But yeah, I'm going to Sean, put me onto some author Neil
Stevenson. I think that's a little bit
longer, a little bit more involved.
I want to get into that next and I'll probably will see if I can
quickly, I'm reading, once I start getting into some tougher
tougher toppings. Yeah, it up.
Another. One of like the Mythos of Sean.
Siegel is that while also being the best fantasy player on the
planet he just finds time to like read every book and watch
every TV show and it's like dude can you just chill out like he's
giving out recommendations for all this stuff all the time.
It's like okay. Just wait till the off season to
start tackling some of this stuff.
Yeah, I mean I told him I was reading more and then he was
like yeah you know the novel I'm finishing up.
I'm like, you just constantly reading and Ali.
I think he reads like during football season, which I don't
know how he finds time for it. But yeah.
Wait, what's your take out this? This is obviously one of those
silly things that in the grand scheme of things is completely
meaningless, but this whole thing asking for a friend, do
audiobooks count as reading, where do you fall on this?
I'm going to say no, and I don't think that means that audiobooks
don't have like a place and they're not educational.
Like I enjoy them still but it's not reading like, you're not
reading, right? Like, there's a very legitimate
point of about like, actually reading the words on a page as
opposed to listen to them, I would still say if somebody
asked you, like, if they, if you've read a book, I would
still be fine. Be like, yeah, I read it without
like, clarifying, the news and audiobook, I don't know, like I
have weird. Not incongruent thoughts on this
where like if somebody was like, oh, have you ever read this and
you only heard it on audio books?
I don't think you have to be like, oh well, I heard it.
I didn't exactly, that's my exact point.
Like if you did a bet with someone, like I remember Davis
and I did a thing where we did this prop bet, when we had to
like meditate and read 30 pages of a book.
Each day, I didn't, we took out audiobooks from that or if you
say to yourself I'm going to read 50 books in 2023.
I don't think that counts but by God if you want to consume a
book in the same way you At a podcast by me, Doc yourself.
Go for it. Yeah, that's still better than
not doing it. Yeah, absolutely.
Yeah, exactly. Oh, I did want to touch on this
Gretsch because I know some people have been asking about
this. We are getting to that point in
the year. Donovan asking is Omni a thing
this year. Do you have any updates on
what's going on in the world of omni fantasy?
Yeah, I mean, working on it a little bit behind the scenes.
It was a lot more to chew that. I had bitten off that I expected
last. Year when we did the whole Omni
couple rounded up, the lot of people playing which was
awesome. I want to, I want to do it as
well as we can do it. And there has to be some
improvements that are made because like we didn't even have
like a timer and we didn't have like timeouts and so head like
babysit all these different drafts and things.
They don't taking up a lot of my time which I don't have the time
for this year. So actually going to probably
right into the newsletter soon but if anyone is watching this
and was really into last year wants to help out with it or
anything. Like I'm going to look to like
try to find Some people to maybe help out share some of that that
load, but Kevin's out Lugo who built the site and does.
Some of the work is I was just email with him earlier today.
He's doing some some prep to get it ready for 2023.
So yeah, I mean it'll be it'll be there in some form, right?
We got some, we always have different events.
We got some fun, new events that we don't have the World Cup,
men's World Cup but we have the Women's World Cup.
We have the World Baseball, Classic which they haven't done
in several years. But is a fun international
baseball contest in March. Like during spring training
which will be a fun thing to add to Dominic fancy.
There's both XFL in usfl this season, it seems like for the a
smaller leagues. So it's going to be a fun year
for the different sports that you can add into it for sure.
I feel like you guys, I don't want to tell you how to run your
thing. I feel like you guys need, you
need a sponsor. You need someone to come back up
the truck with some money. Give you guys some money so you
can devote a little bit more time to this justify it.
I mean, are you guys looking for a sponsor I would love to kiss.
Watch it. Yes, I'm not actively looking.
I'm not actively doing much of anything with it.
It doesn't make any money right now.
Well, as we know, you know, sometimes you just put things
out in the world, you manifest it.
If you're interested in helping out with Omni fantasy, maybe
with some admin stuff, some back-end stuff or if you're
interested in sponsoring it. I do think you guys are on.
We've said this for years, like it's a really fun concept and
obviously there's things like I do think the margins are thin
and like you tweaking it, like you mentioned this year, like
adding F1 that sport didn't lend Itself.
Well, to Romney is how top-heavy it was.
So you're still like, tweaking and finding that perfect
equilibrium, but when you do hit on it, in that sweet spot, it is
a really, really fun way to draft and play fantasy sports.
Yeah, it's super fun than we did the big.
We have the ship chasing cup, which I've been talking to you,
but then we also did the Autumn famous sculptor try to make that
available to more people. And that had 144 people in it
and like just got decided in the last, like couple events.
Evan and I don't know which Evan this is but there was an Evan
that was leading the entire time in his team.
Kind of fell apart at the end and he's looks like he's going
to finish. Like third, somebody came all
the way from behind and Anthony, which we don't have like full
names here. We just have Twitter names, but
Anthony, congratulations. It looks like you're the winner
because they're yes, the Chiefs, he had the winner and NASCAR.
And another top for NASCAR driver, he had the runner-up in
the World Cup. And see, I remember one of mine
and Willis and I didn't even celebrate this, but I remember
when we were doing the ship chasing draft and I remember we
took Argentina and we were both sharing Gifts of messy.
I remember messaging my some of my more, you know, soccer heavy
friends about I was like, could Argentina actually win the World
Cup this year like yeah, maybe. So there we go.
We did get our 80 points there. Yeah.
They'll do for the Argentina which is a fun one to get their
guys. Got out to yeah.
Kyle who I Leave Kyle is also no do.
And I'm butchering his full Discord name but he also won the
ship chasing Dynasty League that we did this offseason.
So Kyle is on an absolute heater these days Omni and and Dynasty,
is that the is that the ship chasing cup that you clicked on
there? Yes.
So there's three leagues for
that and we usually name a winner with the overall points.
You had 550 as the overall. There, I just opened up mine and
the leader in mind is that for 50 Pat has his league as well,
which I don't have. I can dig up but I don't have in
front of me but you Kyle. Might be the overall ship
chasing winner for that one. Wow.
Look at that. So we got what eighth member of
the Dynasty and the in the lobby we're going to say I was just
looking at where he got his points.
I mean, holy cow, he was just crushing everywhere.
Yeah, if you go to Big Board, you Can see his draft and then
the green is is 80 pointers are champions, so it's three, four,
five, pick world champions. You got the PGA Champion,
Cameron Smith down in the 15th round.
He had the runner-up in the World Cup in the second Lewis
Hamilton is. First round pick was actually
kind of a huge Buzz that what 02, wow, we talked about F1 a
lot and he ended up being kind of a bus who's like the one
surprise and F1 was that Lewis Hamilton wasn't good this year,
but everything else. He smashes got the Niners there
and the As a semifinalist in the sixth round, the Mavericks is a
semifinalist in the 14th and New York Rangers.
The semifinals in the 10th, got some good picks in it.
Yeah, that is Croatia as a semifinalist in World Cup down
in the eighteenth round. So he had France and Croatia in
the world cup and got them both into the semi-finals.
That's pretty money. Do you know the other?
I have another idea for you Gretch with a thing that could
be like I don't think a huge heavy lift for you but just
having like an omni Her account. We're like win a team or a
person like secures points, and then people can just turn alerts
on and you get that thing of like, oh, I just secured X
points for this because I would like I remembered it for messy
in Argentina, but then I would forget about it for like the NHL
or whatever. Yeah, I have a tan, the fantasy
that I was going to use it for that but I haven't, you know,
having done it again. Like it's enough and takes
enough just to get the thing up and running.
That's why I want some help with him if he wants to.
Out because oh yeah, Carlos alcaraz.
Remember we were talking about him the tennis player.
The Young tennis player. He ended up doing really well.
Yeah, it was our guy, it was our guy, Nick bird.
Who I think was hyping him up to us and then we started watching
highlights of him and then he fucking crush this year.
Yes. Yeah, he was an even with all
the hype, you still like a much later tennis pick.
Like, I think when people were taking them really high, he'd
maybe be like the eighth. Highest picked 10 This guy.
I mean he was not usually the anywhere near the like the top
five or even top seven or anything.
But he was in position to potentially win tennis going
into this Australian Open, but he had to miss it because I'm a
fantasy is the three tennis tournaments Majors from One
calendar year, and then the Australian Open for the next
calendar year, because that's in January down in the southern
hemisphere in Australia. Hassan's favorite.
I see her son's name on on-screen Hassan's favorite
Country their Australia. So anyway, Al Gore has had to
miss the Australian Open so he fell to.
I think he finished like forth, so he ends up as a county.
As a semifinalist, the tennis points are done a little bit
differently but he won one of the majors, right.
He won the US Open or something, I mean, he was.
Yeah, he got to world. Number one ranking this year,
chats telling us. So he, I mean, he was like,
legitimately a break out like a superstar.
They took him in the 12th round. And value their you gotta pull
the trigger and I was also laughing at all of us have
horrible picks and there, but I was just laughing at Silas, is
Los Angeles Rams at for Ted pick.
I mean it has to be one of the worst.
That's the best of honestly. One of the best parts of army is
looking at the like how bad some of the pics were in hindsight, I
mean there. Yeah, the Rams 410 didn't go.
Well, that's very true and for whatever reason I just get same
for some reason you are confused.
Talking about. So been helps Host this super
Innovative like fantasy contest called the Omni fantasy and you
draft across a ton of different sports leagues.
Basically anything that can fit to the size of however big the
league you want to do and then you can host that with friends.
We did once through ship chasing then did a bigger Scott Fishbowl
ask tournament and a very fun time and we'll always have some
details on the show you can get details, you have a separate sub
stack for the Omni fantasy, right?
Ben, You do? Yeah, I think that's on the
fantasy. Sometimes outcome, I'm seeing
Kyle's comment here. Hi.
He said, I passed on TV with him and Dynasty.
I did team with him. We did like one pic together and
then we added additional Dynasty league.
So that I could be, you know, host one of my own, there was a
bunch of people that want to keep playing.
So I had to jump back out of that, but he had already started
such a hit, such a good start. And yet AJ Brown and everything,
I was like, oh yeah, I love your team.
We're going to, you know, we're going to do it, and then I had a
back out. I was pretty bummed Backing out
and then he went on, I forgot about that, but he went on to
win the whole thing. That's money.
He went on to do it. Yeah, we're still.
If, for some reason you haven't, I been, I basically took over
for everyone as treasurer for the League's.
I still have a little bit of money to pass out.
I think most of it has been paid out, but if you haven't been
paid and you're in the ship, chasing Dynasty League, shoot
me, a DM on Discord, Gretch. I know you've talked a little
bit about Super Bowl. Thoughts Conference
Championship. Post-mortem, I listen to you and
Sean. On break down that that Chiefs
Bengals game in detail the other day.
But what are your kind of early snap takes on the Super Bowl?
I know you were on the chief side, you know, I got caught up
in Bangles you for, you were kind of pushing back on that.
You have to be a little Stoke that Patrick Mahomes pulled that
rabbit out of his house. Yeah, I have four over two
stealing lines. I have the cheese and the Eagles
last week and so, I mean, I got I got both the sides, right?
I was half, that's kind of who I was pulling for obviously
having, you know, pick them and buy them.
The Super Bowl is Just tougher. It's trickier.
I don't have a clear take yet. I like Both sides.
I mean they're both the ones, you know, I think.
I mean it's never like good radio to be like, I don't really
know, but I think the arguments about the Eagles soft schedule
are probably overblown in some circles, but also not Unfounded
entirely right there. Very good team, but they haven't
necessarily had to beat a lot of good teams there past the Super
Bowl. One of the, easiest, frankly of
all time, they'd be Daniel Jones in the Giants.
And then their next game, they're playing already a
backup. QB, any tears.
As you see L right away and then that backup QV gets a
concussion. The guy with no UCL has to come
back in. I mean, they threw two passes in
the second half. I think the Niners.
That doesn't mean the Eagles. Wouldn't still won that game
though because they played a really good game and they're
very, they're an obviously very good team that hasn't had to
play. Say a lot of really difficult
games. I think Sean made the point on
that stealing, bananas pod, but and in part to defend me, sort
of pushing back on him, for his first thought was the Eagles and
sort of win, and I was kind of making this point, and his, his
point back was like, yeah, I mean, if it is a close game, the
Chiefs have had to play a lot of these tougher games have had to
play. The banks had to pay the bills.
If I had to play tough games throughout the regular season in
a way that the Eagles, I mean they've had a few tough
opponents but I really Favorable, schedule, most of the
Season, not not a ton of difficult matchup sin.
Not a lot of games where they've been, you know, close late and
had to pull things out. If it is a close game, I think
there is something to the fact that the Chiefs have had to play
those types of games before. And there's, I think there's
definitely something to the fact that Patrick Mahomes is better
for homes. Jalen Hertz is good but you
know, it hurts first as much as the Eagles dominated that game
against the 49ers. June hurts, did not look good.
I mean Miss age. A brown wide open on a deep
shot. That should have been like a 70
yard TD. So obviously I'm going to judge
him unfavorably for that, but he missed several throws and that
game, he didn't look great. I think he's good though, I
don't want it, you know, I don't want to lock myself in the
people that are just sort of Jalen hurd's haters.
There's a lot I think that jump to negatively on that say you
can't throw. He's just a runner and all this
stuff. I mean you don't want to go that
far. It's I mean, they're good.
The Eagles are very good that she's very good.
I'm having a hard time. I'm reading it.
I think it is very much like the Bangles where the Bengals were
better in a lot of other phases, but Mahomes is just on another
tier than Borough at this point frankly in pearls really good,
but I thought it was laughable to people were saying that bro
could be considered better than my homes even if you beat him in
that game. And that was something we talked
about a lot of bananas, over the last couple weeks.
In this case, I think the gap of quarterback is probably even
wider. Even though hurts is incredibly
good and was frankly better in the regular season.
The borough, finish higher in the MVP race than burrow.
Or presumably will I still think you know Mahomes is the big
Advantage for the Chiefs, the Eagles, otherwise have a lot of
advantages at other areas that are offensive line that are
receivers, better skill position players, she's defense is a
little bit underrated but probably about defense for the
Eagles. It's gonna be a fun game to see
what's your like break-even point or your I should say
you're Tipping Point for the pass catcher.
As I know we're still a week and a half out, but Tony D and P
today, Hardman DMP, Judy MP, like how far can the Chiefs and
Mahomes get away with not having pass catchers like, can they go
out with Justin Watson MBS and Sky more and Marcus Kemp and win
this game? Or do you need to see one of
these guys back healthy? What we probably need to see him
healthy. I pee.
I mean I don't know if we can talk about it on the show but
it's kind of scam or had seven targets it caught three passes
for 13 yards, like that was but actually turn, bro, like it
hurts our, they put them back there because because Tony and
hardener both hurt. And I'm like, he's fumbled like
three kick returns this year. He's been a disaster.
I mean, what a huge, huge play though.
Hopefully we see Sky do something in the Super Bowl, but
I would have thought he could have stepped up in some of these
spots in the Laughs when he got a little bit more run, he is not
looked ready yet. Frank not I guess so yeah.
I mean I think you probably need guys back but I assume Justin
Watson will be back. I assume I mean Juju can't be.
That is how banged up his Juju? Okay, he was like, in and out,
right? Yeah.
So, it's yes, right here. It's so it's his knee.
But yeah, I don't really have a good good read on it as far as
as far as where he will be, he's been tipping.
But yeah, the Tipping Point, question for me is like, It's
probably further. Than for most because I just
think the homes is that good? I mean he Played pretty damn.
Well, I'm this last game, I mean he made mvs played really well,
look very good but you have to put a lot of that on the homes
to but I'm mvs made some really nice because I'm his best game.
He's played with the Chiefs by far.
Made some plays down, the field made.
It really nice play like yards after catch, play on a short
catch that I was just like shocked by, because it's not
really his game. He did, he did a lot throughout
the game, but I feel like my home's, can Elevate, anyone?
It's sort of, like, when I'm going to get to, you know?
Yeah. And I do think, for me, it's
like Mahomes going to be my home's, the Chiefs offense, it's
just gonna do what it does. They're going to stay involved
in games and to me it does come down to like can the Chiefs
defense and can that pass rush get to jail and hurts can you
know, can they do what they were able to do against burrow and
really play the game? They wanted to?
Because I think if you think about that Bangles game like
those first few drives were the Bangles.
Just didn't have any offense like at that doesn't happen in
borough. Has a clean pocket for that full
game. Like the Bengals win that game.
And so then the question is can they get Jalen hurts under
duress? Can they kind of shut down some
of the things that you guys like to do?
And then just like, if it's a low scoring close game, you just
have to like the chief chances but if the Eagles are able to do
what they do is just like how can the Chiefs keep up,
Firepower wanted them. I agree with your point that the
way that the game played out. If the Penguins had done
anything early, they would have one.
I think that's pretty indisputable given that the game
was, you know, close late and the Bengals didn't do anything
early at all. I would also argue You that the
Chiefs did a terrible job of maximizing points on their good
drives. Andy Reid, burnt a lot of
timeouts. Terrible punt, decisions to
different puns in both halves with about two minutes left
inside their opponents. 40-yard line in the situation where
you're giving the opponent, the potential last Drive of the
half, it's like a no-brainer go, he did that.
In the second quarter did in the fourth quarter, Andy Reid did
not call that game particularly well.
I think he called it horribly actually to be completely blunt.
I think the like if we're saying like a little bit of what ifs,
like yes, the Bangles could have been better and they could have
won this game. I think the Chiefs could have
been a lot better in this game too.
If they do a better job of maximizing, like they're good
plays, and they're good drives and getting seven instead of
three and going for it on Fourth Downs.
I mean, there's paths to them looking a lot better than they
wound up. Looking in the AFC Championship
that were right there in front of us, they just didn't actually
happen. Yeah, what do you what are your
thoughts on the total? I feel like the total is
interesting. It's set at 50.
I've been burned. Betting Eagles, overs, like
every week. Just being like, the eagles are
going to do their part. Will their opponents.
Just have to score like two touchdowns in the over will hit
every time that it that does it, does it happen?
This this spot seems interesting to me.
It seems like the sharp side is on the under and I still just
want a fuckin believe that. Offers get a hit.
Yeah, I haven't done a lot of work on the over-under yet, but
my immediately in is the under as well.
I mean, yeah, I took the old version both games last week
because I was like, these are all really good offenses at this
stage of the Season. Good offense, tends to be could
defense. I mean, the cheese, bangle
should have went over. It was 2020 with like most of
the fourth quarter left and the neither team could get anything
else. The over-under was 47.
In that one I was like we just need a touchdown and we're going
to, you know, push and then And end up being decided by a field
goal 2320. The Eagles Niners.
I think also very well could have went over if the Niners
film score 7 points because of all these QB injuries, but same
time like they're two good examples of how like you have
competitive teams like games can be held down a little bit too.
So I mean the this totals even higher than both of those games,
the two really good offenses and I do tend to think offense
dictates a little bit more this point, but we also know that the
defense has been huge in the Super Bowl.
Many of the last decade couple decades.
I don't think that's going to be the trend forever, and we're
going to see more offensive teams win.
Super Bowls through their offense, but It's a high number
for, you know. Yeah.
I mean I I would want to dig into Past Super Bowls totals.
I mean there's been some low scoring Super Bowls recently.
Obviously the Rams and Patriots one comes to mind immediately.
It was like 13-3 that Super Bowl sucked.
But how many have gone over 50 in the last decade?
Yeah, and I bet that have a time and we can dive into that.
Yeah, it is tough. I mean the whole thing.
The Chiefs have just ever since Mahomes hurt his ankle, they've
been such a tough riddle to kind of crack as far as what you
could expect for them, right? Because if they had a healthy
Mahomes and it Healthy receiving Corps.
It's like this total would probably be set at 55.
It would, but I would like to under even more.
I mean, like, last year, Lamb, okay?
So G Bangles was 2320. Actually the same score as
cheese, Bangles that had a 48.5. I mean, you're typically getting
two offenses, two teams that look really good.
Going at each other. You're thinking, they have an
extra week of rest, you're thinking that they're going to.
They're going to come out firing but it's not always going to
play that way. I mean look at this.
Okay? See San Fran a couple of years
ago was 3120 New England, Atlanta was a classic Philly.
New England was a classic but a lot of those games.
Yeah. I mean there's some high scoring
games in there for sure. Yeah.
It is tough.
I mean, you look at some of these like, I don't know if
people would have assumed like, New England, Seattle would have
been. Yeah, I wonder whether over
under. What do you think the over-under
was in this Seattle Denver one, where they just fucking truck?
Sticked. I don't know.
What year was that 2013? Yeah, 2014.
Or that's when the game was yet, 2013 season.
Because pro football reference list some of this stuff.
It's they have it is. Forty seven point five.
So it went over we definitely got spoiled for a while.
When you look at like the scoring in some of these, it was
really just a couple of these at like really either bottomed out.
I mean the that New England, Los Angeles, Rams Super Bowl with a
fucking travesty. That was terrible.
It's so bad where we were you in Nashville.
Yeah. And it was like we had an
awesome crew. I remember I was That is sitting
with silver and rebar and, like, great people to watch a game
with. And it was just a boring as
football game, like, it really was.
Um, all right, everyone's gonna get plenty of Super Bowl takes
over the next week and a half. I did want to touch on some
early ATP stuff. I know on ffp.
See, they've launched some initial best ball contest.
Underdog has the early 2023 if you want to kind of create your
own private 12 man's, but I did want to look at an industry
draft on a F PC. I believe Davis is in this
draft. Have you seen this board
floating around? It's like board float around.
I haven't dug into it a ton. But yeah, I dug into a different
board that I saw over at stealing signals like a couple
weeks ago. I think it's fascinating to look
at these early drafts. I'm like excited to think of her
stuff. I am too and I don't know if
these guys whoever I think this was Dan Williamson overhype.
Sleeper, he must have attended the Buckeye.
Boom. Her school of screenshots here.
We are battling some pixel issues that we will try to fight
through here. I mean, Gretsch, there are
multiple things that fucking jump out to me, like crazy.
I'm going to point out. One of the things that seems
fucking wild to me. I love Bruce Hall.
I think Bruce calls probably, you know, even appropriately
valued, but Greece home. The third Javonte Williams in
the mid seventh. Yeah, is that right?
That's insane, right. I mean, the two of those in
conjunction with each other, don't make a lot of sense,
unless I understand their injuries, I can understand being
a little bit concerned in a January, draf about it, injured
players and not wanting to dive in and be like, yeah, maybe he
misses half the season, like, when we get a JK Dobbins, like,
I'll get my exposure to them later.
I can understand approaching things at this point in the year
where you're cautious on players, but if you're going to
be that cautious on Javon, I mean, like if you're going to be
that aggressive on briefs and that draft, I think should have
probably taken Javonte or somebody something isn't right
there. One or the other isn't, right?
And also again, like I know this is a self-contained 12-person
league, but I mean, the risk-reward proposition on
Javonte there. It's like there's basically no
downside risk as a seventh-round pick like nuts, a no-brainer.
He's gonna at least play in the second half of the year.
Yeah. I he stands out to me
immediately to the Dolphins up to me most right away.
Is there six? Quarterbacks in the fourth
round? Yeah, I mean we do get Your
quarterbacks in the early part of the offseason and we also get
earlier quarterbacks in best ball and it's not like uncommon
and then we knew the quarterbacks are going to rise
is here. Like that's something that's
been discussed and actually a lot of people been saying they
might go in the second round. The other one, the other board
that I looked at did have some second round quarterbacks at
least one Josh Allen. I think when the second round
this one you don't get a quarterback until 309.
But then starting a 401, you get six in the next round.
And I think there's That pull that we talked about with some
positions. Like, we talked biotite on the
most, I feel like we're like, you have the elites.
And then the next group, always gets pulled up based on where
the first names come off. The board Mahomes hurts Allen in
this range. I can kind of understand once
you start getting into like, Trevor Lawrence at 409, like,
isn't he just getting pulled up by the other names?
Why does Trevor Lawrence belong it for?
And I can't make that case. That that one was like one of
these things is not like the other, like if you extrapolate
Justin Fields season, And even, you know, more progress, more
weapons makes complete sense. Even Justin Herbert, you know,
kind of a snake bitten season, for them injury-wise, getting
Kellen Moore, I can buy that obviously no one needs to talk
about Borough Allen hurts and then it's like Lawrence weight.
Like Lawrence is going to be a rock-solid quarterback but man
to put him in that tier above Lamar Jackson like he should be
going around DAC and to and Cuyler, right?
Yeah, I mean even with the comments you made about fields
and Herman stuff, my argument would be to take a quarterback
here. They Have to have massive
upside, we already know stuff about early quarterbacks.
The reason that we would be may be willing to take quarterbacks,
as high as they can score differently.
Now, in the modern NFL, the Josh Allen's, a Jalen hurts with how
much how many points they can score on the Russian side.
In addition, to the passing stuff Mahomes is just very
unique. I actually think Burrows
probably overdrafted there as well.
Yeah because he's more of a traditional quarterback.
I think you can put up a phenomenal passing season but
you're like asymmetrically betting on that ceiling.
In this range, we're talking about like what the opportunity
cost is Fields, is interesting in the sense of humor and for
1,000 yards, this year. Like, you just said, if he
develops as a pastor, you can definitely justify.
He can score at that level. Trevor Lawrence has a little bit
of Mobility, but for him to score at that level, he's got to
throw it for, like, five thousand yards and forty five.
Touchdowns like he's got to have a Patrick Mahomes passing
season, maybe he develops into that.
But again, it's all baked in all that upsides, baked in same
probably with Herbert in my mind even Although I agree with you,
I can understand her but a little more.
That's why I emphasize the Lawrence pick but the guys that
are our, we're going to elevate this year.
Need to be guys that can score in a way that differentiate them
in a position where we do know some guys from the later rounds
are going to be able to score as well.
Like you can't just pay the ceiling price on a player to
lock in certainty. If you will for sure and
especially just like with best ball to and you look at some of
these guys that are going in the 11-12 round.
It's like I'll take my, you know safe.
Floor bet Aaron Rodgers paired with a wild card upside bet,
like Trey lands and I'll go toe-to-toe against your Trail.
And look at those two V2s to of, like, who's the skill position
player, you're drafting in the 11th.
Like, it does seem very, very off to me.
Well, and, and I mean, if you go like, further down on this
board, I mean, way, I think you said to me earlier, Jordan loves
and like, the 25th round or something on this.
So there's some, there's an argument I would make about
Jordan loves not guaranteed to start this year but there's
there's obviously discussion about Rogers, potentially being
traded to the Jets and I think whoever gets whoever
quarterbacks for the Jets is going to be in a really good
spot. Coming up.
Next year, you could be playing to some uncertainty at this
position. At this point in the year, sort
of the argument I would make, if Rogers does get traded, I think
he's a great pic honestly in the 11th round with that was
Supporting Cast compared to the other prices that are being paid
here and also would make George love incredibly good pick.
But if love He's like a 25th rounder.
It's sort of just that sort of arguing that this room doesn't
believe that Rodgers is going to get traded.
If you don't believe Rogers going to get traded in some of
the guys like a Derek Carr. For example, for me who goes in
the 13th round, there becomes really interesting because he
becomes one of the probably favorites to be.
I mean, he's a good enough quarterback that he's going to
start somewhere, right? He's going to start.
Either for the Jets made for Tampa.
Now with Brady, we're trying obviously from this Dreadful has
done pretty wasn't retired yet and so he goes earlier than he
would have but I mean some of the guys like a Derek Carr.
For example who doesn't have a team right now I like that price
in the 13th round. Like there's a good chance he
goes somewhere where he has some pretty good weapons.
I don't I haven't looked like all the quarterbacks but it just
like love in the like 25th seems like an easy pick to like,
that's just crazy. For sure and even like the odds
of Mac Jones outscoring, Trevor Lawrence, next year, are a lot
smaller than a 19th round. Verse fourth round, right?
Different than 80 the tubing twos you were talking about.
I mean, the crazy ya. Um, a couple other interesting
ones here, let's do the Kyle pits thing.
This is an outlier as Paul V notes, I've seen a couple other
boards Jameson. Actually, just DM me another
board. We can pull up is, well, I've
seen him more going in the third.
Or fourth round. It's interesting that he goes in
the 6th Round Here of an industry draft for some reason.
I just would assume the industry, people would be a lot
less like hey I'm never drafting this guy again.
Those kind of knee-jerk reactions.
You normally hear from the public for him to go in the
sixth round here. Does seem wild and I realized we
are both incredibly biased but that's mispriced.
That's Miss price in the sixth. But I mean I'm I'm gonna take a
slow walk. I'm a big guy but I was ready to
get it going. Yeah, I'm gonna give it a little
bit of room to breathe. Arthur Smith is back.
I was really hoping you wouldn't be, I think red or was a
positive but he still didn't throw a lot.
I still think this team is not going to throw a ton of passes.
And I mean Arthur Smith is legitimately like a like a
really shitty cool coach from for fantasy like it's just not
good and we saw some of those concerns even that existed for
Marquis Andrews. I mean, Mark Andrews.
You look at his season from like, week, 8 on, it doesn't
look much different than Kyle pit season.
It's just, you know, we got the Privacy stuff where the first
series of his games were very strong but you start.
What is it like? It's actually we 87 on he had
week 17. He had a nine catch hundred yard
game but other than that, he didn't go over like 65 yards at
any point, he had a bunch of to catch three catches for catch
games and looked a lot like pits that line, frankly, for more
than half the season, it's not how he's going to be remembered,
but I also have a hard time with him at 13th.
Overall for the same reason liked it.
The offense might not thought to know if Lamar Jackson actually
leaves, which I don't think he will think he's gonna get
franchise tag, but maybe that offense change Or maybe they
develop it with a different offensive coordinator, because
Greg Romans gone. But it like I'm a little bit
concerned about what we saw out of those offenses with those
tight ends. Yeah, that's fair.
I get it. Also, I do want to know, I'm
pretty sure. I'm pretty sure this is Davis is
team who did pull the trigger? The, I heard him say took be
Chad Robertson in the first round.
I do believe this is a Davis to jail Eduardo.
Chris olave rib. Andre Lamar, Kyle pits and then
Quinton Johnson were shot while yeah, this has Davis is
fingerprints. All over, he fell on all the
grenades, took Trail ants as well.
I mean, there's love the train, we inspect especially now that
birdie Purdy's hurt. They just said today in an
interview, they're not, there's no way graupel is coming back.
Everyone was trying to connect the dots with Brady.
No one wants to believe, they actually liked raelians, but
they made him their starter last year and then he got hurt.
And all of the Russian quarterbacks worked really well
against the defense's that teams have are running in the modern
NFL, I think Trey Lance would have had a fantastic season this
year. I'll be back in entree, Lance
next year. These prices especially and I
think the Niners are still in on trailing.
They're like, that's another element.
He could have added to our otherwise lead offense.
As he could have added a rushing, a quarterback rushing
element that, you know, the Eagles have with Jalen hurts
that, you know, the Giants use Daniel Jones took to, in
positive ways to go farther than I think they should have heat.
They really lean into that in their win, over the Vikings in
the playoffs. There's a lot of teams that use
the quarterback rushing Effectively this year, I don't
really see why. So many people think the train
Lance is not going to start next year.
I think like it's, it's the favorite and, and like a pretty
solid favor. Yeah, I think you're right.
And I will also say like a lot has changed literally in like
the past 24 hours is far as them saying Jimmy garoppolo's for
sure gone. Tom Brady retiring.
I mean, literally yesterday he was plus 150 to be on the Niners
and betting markets. Like stuff has changed so much
and really cleared out in a way obviously.
SLI, they've gotten a pretty Rosy timeline for pretty.
It sounds like he should be fully good to go, but I do think
we are going to get an epic Brock /, Deaver stray, Lance can
battle. And it's like, man, the Niners
are in this six spot because it's like the bird.
In the hand, they know exactly what Purdy is.
They know what is upside, is, they know, like what he can do
for the team and it's probably losing to the Eagles in the
conference Championship game. And I don't even think, I think
I would argue that the camp battle thing is going to be Less
of a battle than it feels like because he's gonna be coming
back from they sense a fully torn, you see?
Alright, I've seen the six to nine-month timeline stuff but in
like baseball that's like an 18-month injury and I don't win.
I know it's different, but the quotes have been three to six
month timeline. And I'm obviously everyone's
going to paint a more optimistic picture than his, maybe reality,
but everything coming out from them.
Now as he's going to be, he's going to be fine.
But yeah, I guess I feel like he's gonna still be rehabbing
six months from now in August and Lance is going to be
healthier. I mean, Lance had a pretty
significant injury to, but I'm pretty sure it was just like,
clean breaks his leg right? Like pretty and I mean, if
you're the Niners, you're in a good spot, ultimately, right?
Like, you should be starting, Lance, and then know that you
have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league,
right? Why pretty other portals like a
great backup for next season as he sort of rehabs and they can
kind of. But I think they're going to go
into the year with Lance's, a starter and and use parties
injury is sort of like he's going to be our back and maybe
he takes over midseason. If he's like you know totally
fine I think it is going to be optimistic to assume if he had a
fully torn UCLA UCLA and needs Tommy John surgery that he's
going to be ready seven months from now to play in an NFL game.
I don't think that's going to happen based on what the pitch
baseball timeline. Said, you know that I'm familiar
with, right? Yeah.
And you know, the when you think about the information ambiguity,
like hammering, a guy like lands who, you know, early on before
like if he is solidified as the Order again, like he's gonna go
exactly where he did last year which is like a sixth and
seventh round pick like drafters now like ourselves are so in
love with the upside scenarios. Like there's not going to be a
trail and discount if you heard anything from the Niners, your
way more in tune with the news. And I am that suggests that they
are in any way. Disenchanted with Trey, Lance
because I have not heard anything from the team.
It's a lot of fantasy football speculation that basically is
what we do every time a player gets injured after a like, yeah.
They sat in the whole rookie year and then you got hurt.
And so it's like, it's been two years.
We've had a bunch of hype. He's not performed to the hype
and part because he hasn't played or almost entirely
because he hasn't played, but I don't think the Niners are
looking at it. Like, oh, we're done with train.
Lance. Right?
What have you seen anything like that from the team?
I haven't seen anything like that.
I mean, the one thing that was interesting, and I saw who
pointed this out? Oh yeah, Kyle.
So there was the thing where the former like I think it was like
director Player Personnel is. Now the GM of the Titans and
when that happened Trail ants on his Instagram, did a photo of it
and like the crossing fingers Emoji with like, you know, you
connect the dots. And so, the only extrapolation
for me there is just Trail ants feeling like he's now an
outsider in his own organization and wanting a fresh start.
But this is all before, a lot of stuff has since happened to
where now his path to being the starting quarterback isn't near
as you know, difficult as it would have been a week ago.
No, I mean, I guess the way I was looking at is like, yeah,
pretty took him to the conference Championship, but
soda Garoppolo last year and they still started last week.
One this year. Like they, they made a decision,
they wanted Lance over Garoppolo after he did the same thing and
Garoppolo was more established than Purdy ever was, right?
I think it would be a pretty big decision for the Niners to
having not really seen Lance play much to throw in the towel
and just move on and be ready for Brock.
Pretty to be there guy. Yeah, I see people in the chat
saying that it can't be a six-month injury and again this
is coming from Kyle Shanahan. He's always going to paint an
optimistic scenario, but the report from Mike Garrett follow
today. Shanahan says, the most
encouraging thing. He's heard on Purdy as if
surgery is done. He'll build up his arm strength
from three to six months. By six months, I'll be the same
dude and ready to go. So I guess you can you can call
bullshit on that or you can say there's a kernel of truth but
they're taking a more positive angle on it.
I'm going to pull up this other draft board that you might be
different. Be different from baseball to
football to. There's a lot more velocity in
baseball. There's a lot more torque on the
elbow. It could just be a yeah,
different thing. I'm going to pull up this draft
board just because it's a little easier to look at.
Let's hook our guy up here, Kyle came out, firing in the chat.
Calvin, Ridley's ATP. He was going and I think it was
the sixth round in that other one.
He goes in the fifth round here. What are your early thoughts on
Calvin Ridley value? Think the market tends to be
optimistic on? Layers like this that have
missed a ton of time. I mean, I think the best example
would be Michael Thomas this last offseason.
Obviously Thomas gets hurt again.
It's not like really clean and easy but a lot of times like
you're going to get people going to be like Calvin Ridley is
going to play just like he did when he was at his Peak he
wasn't even very good in 2021 for the five games.
In fact he was really bad before he got suspended and and but saw
that was off the field stuff and he kind of decided to step away
from the team and then he got suspended.
Don't really know what was going on.
Everybody's got look at his like game logs everything or season
career logs. What have you 2020?
Was his fantastic year was really good in 2018, 2019.
Those are the rookie and second Seasons.
That was sort of what I would call his Peak.
I think what people tend to do is just go.
Okay. Well, he was this good at his
Peak. He still young enough.
He's 28 right now that he could, you know, he'll play to that
level but we are removed from those Seasons.
You don't know where he's at, physically necessarily we Don't
know how he'll fit as well, and a new offense and all those
layers. I think he can be good, but I
think in these situations, the market has shown time and again,
that it has a tendency to like paint a really Rosy picture.
And it's another one of the ones that I'd argue where we start to
draft. These guys, close to their
ceilings fifth round here, probably not close to his
ceiling. Obviously, we've seen Calvin
Ridley, play to like first round and capabilities and if Trevor
Lawrence takes a huge step forward.
I mean, he could be really good. I think he's going to rise from
Here honestly really? Yeah, I mean like we didn't play
last year so when the first drafts I feel like a lot of it
is drafting off of last year's you know big names and scoring a
lot of times these guys that Miss time are forgotten about
it, but Michael Thomas was a lot, lower in January last year
than he wound up in August, but trailing Burke's are Calvin
Ridley. I think I would take Ridley
their Birds, is still a guy that I want, but another offensive
can, you know, team concerns. I think I'm going to be a little
bit more wary of that this year after we saw the whole league be
down. And I think that could carry
over to next year where you're going to want the offenses that
are actually capable of being special as opposed to the ones
that are just dumpster Fires for fantasy.
And the Titans might be a dumpster fire for Fantasy next
year, talk about a fall from grace, Gabe Davis.
You know a man who had found himself into what the third
fourth round is some draft now all the way down in the eighth
round here. But I like that price.
I mean, did he have like an ankle injury all year?
He hurt himself early. He still performed a little bit
in the playoffs. The gate Davis discourses
nonsense, it's been it's been a Larry is on Twitter.
All year. There's a lot of discussion
about him. I think he's a good player did
not play to his capabilities. This year, not something I'm
gonna pound table for all offseason because again, there's
a A lot of Gabe Davis discussion and there's been a lot of
Victory laps about him, not performing particularly well
this year, but he still made some plays.
You still saw the shape of the stuff that he can do the Bills.
Probably added receiver though. So I mean that's the one thing
that's a little tough in the early offseason we don't know
for sure. Where they're going to be,
whether he's got a project for a ton of routes, you know?
Yeah. And I mean you saw that the
press conference with their GM to it how salty he was about the
questions about adding another Elite fast catcher say okay, we
didn't have to tank to get your bar Chase, like you could tell
that that got under his skin, even that question, that's going
to be something. He's going to be thinking about
all offseason. For sure, for sure you got the
quarterbacks going really high here again.
It's I mean these drafts are fun.
There's not a lot of receivers going early Pete like where we
can be pissed boys. Again I don't always like dude
like I love Ramon Ray Stevenson. Second round, Ramon Ray
Stevenson feels like playing with some fucking fire.
Second round Josh Jacobs. I mean, you got DJ more in the
fifth, Chris Godwin in the fifth.
Michael Pittman, I don't even really love, but I like him in
the fifth Judy, Mike Williams in the six Christian Watson.
I don't while love, but I'm taking in the six Terror.
Maclaurins Al 86, like, look at these names Marquis Browns in
the seventh, there's Portland Sutton's in this.
Deante, Johnson is right there with Gabe Davis and the eighth,
I don't again, don't think you want to Johnson had a good year
this year, but Jameson Williams and Richard Bateman or a
Founders, you know. All those wide receiver prices
Darnell, who needs a ninth round her.
Now, I don't think Darnell Moon, he's amazing, but I'll take him
in the ninth round to. This eighth round is pretty
loaded. Bateman some rookies Jameson
Williams. I love that price there for him.
Gabe gave his and deante Johnson that a throughout it.
You don't see eighth round like that.
Come September. I promise you that and it does
thin out like you look at the the 12th.
I mean there's you start to get a lot of rookies here in the
ninth tenth. Eleventh twelfth, like Skies
going in the tent. I'm gonna be his Learned about
taking sky in the 10th. After what we saw this year in
Romeo Dobbs, I love but he's still going to the 12th.
I like I do like Wanda and 12th. I like Elijah the 12th to 13th.
You're getting into like Lazard Hunter Renfro, it does start to
thin out. Those are not names that I'm
like thrilled to take the fact that you could get like five
really good receivers by the eighth round and still be able
to take a couple of detours. Take six you take seven really
good receivers by the a cramp. I mean, it's a fun proposition
in the early parts of these drafts.
It's kind of insane like I know and I don't even remember who
the show was that kind of steam Sky more up and I know some
shows talking about him a lot but before that like this was
where Sky more was going, it drafts.
And we have an entire season of information and he's going in
the exact same place. Right?
Like, how's that possible? He's gotta go lower than this
and the same time like I mean if he goes a lot lower than this I
am going to want to take some steps at him.
Yeah so I can understand why people are willing to bet into
like okay well it is your 2 and he's still tied a patch of moms
like well apparently we're going to tell that story again this
year I don't know if someone else might have to pick up the
Baton of that story, right? Ah let's see here other I mean
I'll be the first to admit I don't I mean I know Jackson
Smith and jig but I know Bijan. Robinson.
But man, I am I am green on these rookies so I can't really
speak on on any of the valuations here other than
loading up on these guys at cheap prices early on has
generally been a winning strategy, I'm pretty green on it
as well. I know people are talking about
Robinson is like a top-20 pick. I mentioned that in my subset
post where as much as we talk about how running back value has
fallen, it's actually start that fall start a long time though.
You look at the last decade there have only been five
running backs have gone in the top 20 rounds that Back to like
Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon were both.
Excuse me, top 20, overall picks in the NFL draft, they were both
in the top 20 in the same draft. You have McCafferty, you have
for net Zeke and sake 166 running backs in the last like
ten drafts before girly and Melvin which was the same draft.
They went 10 and 15. There was like three years where
there was no running back to one of the top 20.
They were either you know there's there's late first round
running backs but those top 20 picks In most years, people talk
about how the there are basically like 20 Blue Chip
prospects in the late first. Is it should almost be viewed as
like the top 20 is the first round grade late first, is more
like the early 2nd, you know, extension if you will.
Like it's not a clean cut off. At the end of the first round,
we should think of the top 20 as sort of a separate thing.
And there's only been a handful of running backs.
I just named or six running backs that have been in the top
20 in the last decade and most of them have been Were stars.
Again, Berkeley McCaffrey for Nets like the least accomplished
but Zeke Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon.
These are all guys that have been top three fantasy running
backs over multiple Seasons. People are talking about Bijan
has as potentially being like that.
I can see why he goes in the second round here.
I've seen him in the first round.
I think he was in the first thing.
The other one. We looked at it makes sense for
him to be going that high. If he's going to get drafted
with that type of capital particularly if is a shot to go
like in the top 15 or top 10, Landing spot still is going to
matter a ton for him though. Then there's the other back that
Pat was telling us about Jamar Gibbs, right?
Yeah. He's 701.
And I think that's a pretty nice price for him.
Probably at 7:01 I've seen him in like the fourth.
Yeah, Quinton Johnson in the eighth.
Are you missing mentioned Jackson Smith and jig but
Johnson's a guy from TCU that people really like is looking
like I'll be the top. Receiver, drafted or Jordan
Addison who went and I know one that's just I mean I don't know
a lot about their profiles yet. That's just from looking at some
expected draft, Capital stuff that those guys probably make a
lot of sense in the eighth and the ninth.
If they go in the first round and there will be receivers in
the first round the way that receiver, I'll for sure
receiver, contracts have blown up, there's going to be, people
are talking like this. Here might be the others are not
going to be a lot of receivers in the first round.
I think that trend is probably here to stay, right?
Like we're going to get four or five or six in the first round.
I think pretty much every year going for.
Teens are getting more spread they want depth at receiver.
I just saw, you know somebody, I don't know who but I saw his
face Sirius XM host, on Twitter, the other day, talking about how
the new meta is to have two Elite receivers or something
like that. I don't do you know who that
was. Yeah, I don't know why they keep
posting those clubs. You gotta get those receivers
though I mean that is a real thing.
Yeah I what do you think so Jameson here, 11th round.
Maybe I'm just so burned by not having any Josh Jacobs last year
that I'm like, fucking David Montgomery 11 throughout.
Doesn't look too bad. I mean, I would take Dave, I'm
coming eleventh row. That's the thing is.
Like, that's the other thing. I'm look, I'm seeing when I look
at this is like, yeah, early on. You want to get running backs
that, you know, we're going to have roles.
And you can get burnt really quick with running backs.
But do you really want to pay the iron price for Josh Jacobs
in the second round if you can get David Montgomery and the
11th when it means the difference between Tween one of
these Elite receivers that are going to that range and you
know, you're making a rookie stabbed in the 11th.
I do think the rookie prices are nice but looks like they flowers
is another rookie was the next receiver after Montgomery.
The next receiver after Jacob was get Wilson, mr.
Wilson. Good CQB, upgrade gonna be
wheels up. Yeah I'm taking Wilson
Montgomery over. Jacobs has a flowers every day.
Yeah. Yeah.
Let us know in the chat. What else?
Jumps out to you guys on this board as being interesting,
anything else here for you, Gretch.
I think the running backs is a great point but it is tough in
early drafts. I probably think if I was doing
a bunch of dress right now, I probably would be looking to
take an anchor running back or two, maybe even because you do
have some trouble in these later rounds.
A lot of these guys are not even going to have rolls.
You start getting down to like the 15th round.
Like we have no. No i.d. like, Isaiah Spillers
going there. As this building might be
completely out of the Chargers plants in sick rights right?
They might draft a new day to day.
Three. Running back or sign somebody in
free agency. They didn't really use him a
ton. A lot of those guys back there,
some of them will have value. But the way we approach it last
year, Pete was we went after some of the like pass-catching
backs thinking they would have stable roles but I mean the
mechanics of the world got heard and some of the other ones just
weren't very good. Like he Minds wasn't very good.
It's tough game. Flopped in the regular season
game. Yep.
I mean, it's tough without the past catchers to lean back on.
A lot of these dudes, we don't know what their roles are going
to be. You can make those bets but you
probably want to be taking some running back.
Swings reasonably High to lock in like something, but I
probably just be thin at running back over all and take a, you
know, a decent number of receivers.
But this is also why I probably wouldn't be doing early Cube you
like this because I feel like Like yeah it's a bad on Derek
Carr to take him in the 12th round but that's a bet that I
feel a lot more comfortable with the dirt cars going to start
somewhere and be a solid quarterback for a basketball
build as opposed to whatever. You know, running back that I
have to make in that range, Alexander Madison or something.
Who like legitimately might not even be the Vikings back up
anymore next year. Like we don't know like Tai Chi
and I could be them out or they can go somewhere else or, you
know, maybe he winds up beating out Dalvin cook.
I don't know. But yeah, it's like, is it?
Good. Oh sorry I was gonna say what do
you think? I didn't even blink at this
Garrett Wilson at 23? I feel like he would be like if
you just told me where they were going to have like the same QB
set up his last year some you know triumvirate of those shitty
guys. I'd say he's like a mid to late
third round pick and then if you bake in a quarterback upgrade
presumably Rogers like late second I mean I don't know I
took ggressive there its aggressive with like a lava in
the mid 4th and some of the other prices you're looking at.
But Like, the way I put it as IQ.
It's a little early to be saying this but there's basically no
price where I'm not going to get some exposure to him.
I still think the lake second is fine to begin exposure to them.
Especially right now with the QV uncertainty, if the QB situation
is confirmed bad, that's one thing.
But like if they get Aaron Rodgers dude Darren Wilson's.
Going to get soft fibers here? Yeah, yeah.
No, that's where that's where I'm at there, too.
And I guess, I guess maybe because you have that
uncertainty, you don't want to pay Rogers prices until that's
confirmed. I get that.
But I also don't blame anyone for clicking Clicking there.
I agree with FF disguise here, Singletary, and the 14th, you
know, even a more exaggerated version of the David Montgomery
pick. I mean, there's just zero
downside risk at that price, another free agent.
I'm looking at of Mi Sanders in the eighth, like everyone was
talking about how we should have been take him out sinners in the
eighth, because of how good of a season he had and he's going in
the eighth again even though he had that good of a season that
doesn't make a lot of sense. Tyler.
I'll during the seventh, I kind of like him if he had a really
good end of last season there. Cam Akers 712.
Yeah. Julie looked he knew that
Achilles our 18-month injuries. He looked like he got over his
Achilles by the end of the season.
He looked like pre-injury cam Akers.
I think there was too high of expectations coming into the
season, but once we started to see those flashes that show that
he can actually potentially play at the pre-injury level again,
I'm taking him at 7:12. I'm okay with that.
He was like a stud pre-injury. Yeah, let's see here.
Kyle says charger stack looks like Great Value, Mike Williams
going in the sixth at. That one's pretty interesting.
I would say. Yeah, you know, and 512, I mean,
I haven't been on key now and much last couple years were
finally getting that age discount that I wrote last year.
He was in the third that we needed a discount, he should
have been falling to the fifth last season that was there and
he was still good when on the field this year.
So I'm very comfortable his price at 5:12 to.
I like the charger stack. I like that.
Yeah. What was the?
Oh yeah we should talk about this one because I've been
seeing. Where's the comment about
Hawkinson guys? I'm so fucking tired.
I'm losing my mind these days. Is I can't find the post, but
someone said, what do you think about Hawkinson back end of the
second round? Because that is where he's been
going in, these drafts to Rich. Are you a buyer there?
Yeah, that's that's one I can understand and tighten premium
but it's it feels a little bit like when we all got in on, So
who's the Ram side? And again, think of the same
higbee. Oh, he's big and strong stretch.
Then to that year. The difference was higbee, not a
very good Prospect, did not have any production and then had one
really good. Five-game stretch, Hawkinson
really strong Prospect really strong draft, Capital had,
everything changed teams. And immediately played to a
level that we had never seen a really play with the Lions.
And it makes you feel like there was something with Detroit
system that was potentially limiting him, which we've seen
with tight ends. He's being a little bit more
system-related. The name that I was comes to my
mind when I think about this, is Greg Olsen who started his
career with the Bears and wasn't a very good tight end with the
Bears. Finally got loose over to
Carolina and suddenly goes on to be like one of the best,
pass-catching tight ends in the league throughout his career in
Carolina, like that. That's the career Hawkinson can
definitely have is the sort of the Greg Olsen career.
And I mean, he could be better, obviously, like he was a top
ten. He was 10th overall pick, right?
I mean, he was a Was one of the highest drafted tight ends in
the last decade. He was good enough with
Minnesota for that stretch that I get this price.
It's also, I mean, It's betting a lot on a small sample it's a
high-risk high-reward been for sure.
And I think the other thing too, about these drafts and granted,
this is just one draft in a bucket but You know, it you find
yourself in these spots and ffp, see drafts where it's a
structural decision or it's almost not even TJ Hawkinson,
but it's like TJ Hawkins archetype, and if you want to
build through an elite tight end, and then you're asking
yourself, like, hey, the two three turn is way too early for
me to take George Kettle or Kyle pits in Dallas, Carter.
And then you're saying to yourself.
I don't want to have Dalton Schultz or Waller Ingram.
And so you just get pushed to Hawkinson because we've had that
Dynamic happen to us in Main Event drafts were structurally.
We make the pick even if we think it's a bit rich, Each ATP
works, right then that's it. That's probably the way to
describe it because I do think it is probably a little bit
Rich. I'd probably like him in the mid
third late, third, three, four turn.
If I could get it there but that might not be the price we get on
Hawkinson this year and premium. Yeah I don't think it is.
It is really wild. Like I guess like we knew the
quarterbacks were going to go early but I'm still having
sticker shock seeing it. Like I'm thinking about all the
drafts we did last year and just imagine seeing Josh Allen
Patrick Jalen hurts jobber all go off in the third round.
I mean that was such a juicy Range, four wide receivers last
year, and some of those guys are just going to get pushed down
now. Yeah, I mean three receivers in
the third round in this draft, three receivers in the fourth
friend. You got six receivers in those
two rounds. There's only four in the second.
There's seven in the first. I mean, that sets a really heavy
like tone and lamb is 2001. But from that point on you just
kind of take your eyes from 20 to down the second round on the
third down the fourth. You're not seeing as many
receivers as you normally see. And that's what's pushing DJ
more 2501 and I was just talk about Keenan Allen at 5:12.
Like, they're not even that much lower than they were going last.
He's wide receiver 18, DJ more Keenan's, wide receiver 23, a
lot of times, those are be, you know, early fourth.
What late, third picks and some of these drafts that are really
receiver heavy last year. Yeah, maybe not wide, receiver
23, but wide, receiver 18. I think we've probably seen in
the third round and in these early drafts at least we're
seeing receiver be to deprioritize a little bit,
which, I mean, opens up the path to go.
Look at the two hole, Jefferson Garrett, Wilson T, Higgins.
I mean, you didn't even have to go Pollard and Chimera in those
spots, but okay, Pollard, DeAndre Hopkins.
I mean Pollard injury. Probably hadn't happened yet.
I'm assuming when this was done, but DeAndre Hopkins Marquis
Brown, jsn. Look at those receivers that
that built in, Probably with the 4 and the 6 I would have
preferred like to get I don't know, Lamar Jackson goes for 12.
I would have probably preferred him to Pollard there at the six,
maybe another receiver. Even I you could went, I mean,
you can have really strong receivers when the drafts not
going receiver heavy, right? When it's not a pistol draft.
Yeah. This is not a piss.
Poor. Driving mean, the one hole
Jameson and the 12th hole or the only teams that went 0 R, be
waiting until the seventh round to draft their first running
back. But man, this just looks like
Like old-school FF PC business as usual, no seismic a teepee
shifts. Right, and that's, that's nice
to see. But interestingly you point out
with the cube? He's being really high and
there's a lot of tight ends pretty high.
We're also getting good prices on some running backs.
So, it's not even. I mean, I see a question about
Aaron Jones in the chat, like he goes, in the middle of the fifth
route, he's our be 20 in the middle of fifth round.
That's not like a super are be heavy draft either.
It's a It'll be interesting to see.
I think probably the quarterbacks will settle in a
little bit lower over time. These tight ends will probably
settle in a little bit lower and so that will push up some
receivers but it will push up some running backs to.
It's not going to be exactly like this.
But right now, looking at this, like there's a lot of ways to
build that are if you're not overreacting too much to 2022,
when you're willing to kind of take a similar approach to what
you did going into 2022, even if it didn't pan out particularly
well. Last year you can build some
Really fun teams when you look at a board like this.
Yeah. I mean it's the I know it's the
same thing every year to wear these guys, a guy like Aaron
Jones. Like you said, there's ambiguity
about just projecting him for touches and when there's that,
ambiguity, you're getting this insane discount, nothing about
the player has changed. And Aaron Jones is a guy who,
you know, sure there's some situations that could be
disastrous, but for the most part, like, I don't know, Aaron
Jones is going to be Aaron Jones in most offenses, right?
It but it's just really We interesting you take advantage
that discount. Now I can't even come up with a
landing spot you know where it would necessarily be bad but
he's going to V around her to the second.
You get clarity on that. He's the type of player that
he's always been interesting even when he's been in a
committee because his explosive, he can catch.
Yeah, I mean, game-breaking big play ability, and receiving
ability is enticing to me in the fifth round.
I mean, even if he's in a committee and I almost like I'm
okay with Being in a committee. It's almost like a DeAndre Swift
profile which he, what? Mid third.
I mean he's she to I like that a little bit like and and Swift
obviously did get hurt but I think I would make a case that
not having to carry 25 times a game to get their value is
probably better for their health, right?
Those types of back. Yeah, they're a little smaller
typically but I was those are ones Shawn's.
Got maybe on. That's the profile.
That Sean I was love to talk about.
It was explosive back. She goes back to Jamaal Charles
but But it's a little bit like a Jamaal Charles like what Aaron,
Jones has done that. He's had a somewhat similar
career. Obviously not as good as Jamaal
Charles but that's the type of player that he's like, 30
though, like he is getting up there in age, but that's the
type of player that I am into. Now, he's just turned 28,
actually, it's not quite as old as I thought.
I don't know, I'm into him in the fifth round when he's been
as productive as, as he's been basically his whole career for
sure. And now I'm starting to get
starting to get the edge here. I promise, you, we'll be doing
plenty of drafting on these are ways.
But wanted to set the table. Look at a few draft boards
grach, any other things on your mind here before we power this
down. No, I'm just ready to draft will
do, maybe we should do some next week before packets back because
we got to get our million dollar winners drafted before he's
around, because, you know, we could check out the available
prize pools. I think we might need to win
like, first through four hundredths place and times over
some of these got tested that maybe we can, we might not be
getting million, even even then. But yeah, I appreciate you guys
as always, thanks for hanging out in the chat if you want.
Join us in the ship chasing Discord.
We always would love having you in their can talk some more Omni
fantasy. For those of you who had
question also in the deposit Kingdom Discord.
There is an omni fantasy Channel down there as well.
If you guys want to check out some of your team's or ask
Gretsch questions, Gretch, still pumping out stealing bananas
podcasts. Any any posts that people can
look forward to in the next week or so?
Yeah I just did the one that looked at similar to what we did
tonight but then some ATP and wrote some stuff up and And I'm
going to do a few more I mentioned in that post a few
more coming, some biggest takeaway from 2020, there's a
low late, I'd planned to write that the week of the the Hamlin
injury and not knowing that that was going to happen and then
also that Pat was going to be you know in this position he was
in it was a busy week that week ultimately and then we went into
the playoff stuff. So I've been putting that off
but I have like a whole outline written for the big takeaways
from 2022. So that'll be a fun one when I
get that put together. Awesome.
Yeah. Yeah, I'll also do since you're
bad at doing your own plugs been on.
Put in a plug for us. Stealing lines, Dalton was
giving out recently, some Futures Super Bowl that's that I
thought were super fun. He gave up to I won't give them
out here but I was like okay. I want to go bet those.
I want to go bet though. So yeah some fun stuff over
there at stealing vets as well. Yeah.
Yes the old one isn't did really well this year.
He did awesome. I finished in the blocked in the
sides and totals and salting the black good year for for that
because that's Obviously, tougher Market.
He did incredibly well in the props, he's going to be
grinding, the draft stuff coming up.
Lot of offseason markets, combine stuff.
I know he had some big hits on the combine last year.
He's good, man. He grinds the the props hits
Along on a lot of long shots stuff.
If you are looking for some of the offseason, that's you'll
have a lot of interesting markets that will be playing.
So yeah, come join us over there.
Yeah, and yeah, good luck to everyone to, I mean, we'll have
a show most likely next week, but good luck to everyone.
One in the, the underdog playoff contest, I got some teams
through to the finals grach. But no full lineups,
unfortunately, just like two and three guys here and there.
So ended up being a profitable thing for me, but not going to
have a fun play off sweat. Unlike some of the people Nomar
is in the Discord extremely live to win the big Mitten, the like
the finals. It's like nine dead teams, and
then him going toe-to-toe with another team to take it down.
So that graduation It's to all of our Underdog finalists, take
that down. Like I said, we should be back
next week. We'll let you know.
You can follow us on Twitter at ship chasing will keep.
You posted have a great week, enjoy your last weekend or your
second. I don't know how to phrase this
a weekend without football before lots of weekends without
football. I believe is how that should be
said. So for been Gretsch, I'm Pete
will see you guys next time.