We are through nine weeks of the NFL season and in the post game
interview that he gave Brock Bowers was quoted as saying
behold I am become death destroyer of faders.
This is stat chasing Pat Fryer Helmo.
This is what this is what I'm Pat Anita handjob fix your side
for Jamar. Alpha play, Chase, you can't
handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point here, right? I think it's a good thing,
Draco. The the Brock Bauer's absolute
nuclear obliteration of all the faders coming in Week 9 really
taught us, you know, delayed gratification.
It it was an important time of self reflection and perhaps it
will allow us to be more merciful to the faders here
going forward because we've grown in these weeks.
Yeah, it was like, no, not November, but like we did it in
October, Novara's October, finally the eruption spot once
we got to November. Yeah, I watching that game, I,
you know, he he's going off like he's having a good day.
Loveland had already had the the monster day before.
And I just was thinking like, after the first touchdown, I'm
like, yeah, but how fun would it be if Bowers got a second
touchdown to match Loveland, you know, and it takes a while and
then he gets the second one. I'm like, but wouldn't it be
cool if the game went to overtime and he could, he could
just throw another one on the fire?
Oh man, it's such, such a fun game.
Really, Really. I mean, the the Brock Bauer's
slappies were rejoicing. Am I still out, by the way?
No, I I could hear you. OK.
I I I went out. I was, I was making a joke.
I said like it was kind of like, no, not November.
It was like no Bowers October when we finally got the
eruption. And yeah, it's like we finally
got the the eruption once that once he came back.
Yeah, it very, very satisfying. There will be plenty of Bowers
talk later when we get to the tight end charts.
I think we should go ahead and dive into quarterback here.
Yeah, not, not a ton to cover at quarterback, but I do think
there are some important either continuations of trends or
things that we had discussed in previous weeks that I think are
important to revisit. The first note that I had on the
quarterback chart was Bonex just continues to trend down in his
adjusted yards per attempt. Who could have, I mean, gosh,
no, no one even said anything like this was possible.
We didn't. God, I mean, if only.
If only someone, some wise sage, had pointed out that he was
probably going to continue to trend down.
He's playing really badly. The the Cowboys game, I mean,
like we got to give him his flowers for the Cowboys game
'cause he he put up a bunch of points there.
But even in the Cowboys game, like he was good.
But you know, he did what all the other court, you know, we
just saw Jacoby Verset cook the Cowboys too.
I guess it's not some some lifetime achievement award that
you get for cooking the Cowboys, but at least he could do that.
The one yes, like I guess so both next 6 1/2 adjusted yards
per tempt. That's in the in the in the kind
of mediocre to bad quarterback territory.
And you you look at all of these things where if you look at the
next Gen. stocks, they're like completion are respected.
And and then any of the other metrics like he is, he's right
alongside Russell Wilson, Michael Pannick's Cam Ward and
right around like -3 completion over expected.
What's weird is like he's good at some things.
Like even though the old line is elite, his pressure to sack rate
is, is, is one of the best. I think it might actually be he
might have the best pressure to sack rate in the league.
His rushing is good. Like it's kind of strange where
he's good at some of these things.
And then he makes the, he does make the occasional explosive
throw, but it, it does seem like his he, he, he's not efficient
because he's not completing passes often enough, which
obviously important for, for. He he is.
He is a little bit better for fantasy.
And I, I, I do wonder how much of that is like the Broncos.
They don't have the best receivers like Court and Sutton
is their best receiver. Like he he's like, OK, like he's
certainly not a elite wide receiver.
One Troy Franklin has been the the emergence for them.
And like, I, I'm a Troy Franklin sappy.
I think you are too. But he like, I don't, I don't
know. I, I, I do wonder if part of
that is just the offense itself. Outside of the elite outline is
is a bit lackluster. Yeah, I mean, I'm sure that if
you transplanted, you know, top ten NFL receiver onto the
offense, it probably helps the adjusted yards per attempt.
But I mean, Mac Jones is sitting here with like very similar drop
backs per game and he's over a full adjusted yard per attempt
higher than him throwing to Kendrick Bourne, you know, and
he he has nothing to throw to either.
And it's it's still working out just.
Fine, Right, right, right. You know, Yeah.
So he has an elite offensive play caller, an elite outline.
Like you can't make that many excuses for him.
Yeah, the, the like silver lining or saving grace for Bonex
is the things that he's good at, the scrambling, the not taking
sacks. You know, that's that's helpful
for fantasy. Like that's why he's been better
for fantasy than he has been for real life.
And the Broncos also are just a good enough team that it's like
you can you can just have a loser back there.
And it doesn't really like you have to have a super turbo
nuclear loser back there for it to start mattering for how good
the Broncos are on defense and how good their offensive line
is. So he's he's probably like at
the threshold where it is good enough to make it work for the
Broncos, especially on his rookie contract.
And he's got time to develop. Guys can get better.
And there's enough that, you know, he does well or it's like
maybe he can wallpaper over the bad stuff or like he grows or
they they figure out how to just like, let's not put you in
situations where you have to do stuff that you're just not
capable of. And he, you know, can be a a
functional quarterback on a second contract for them.
But I do think that, you know, adjusting your expectations of
Bonex of this is not a good NFL quarterback.
Yeah, way overdrafted. Yeah.
Way overdrafted. He's he's actually, he's put up
fantasy points to where it's like the the the cost in best
ball is not killing you. It's not great, but it's not
killing you. But I would expect it to hurt
you more as the season progresses is the thing, because
we're seeing the the trend is continuing down and he's already
played some of the best matchups he's going to have.
He already got the Bengals, already got the Cowboys right.
Like it's unfortunately he does not get to play those teams
again. So I do think, you know, he
played the Giants already. So yeah, I do.
I think we see the trend continue.
Steelers. The good news is he's he's
probably close to bottomed out like you can't, you actually
can't go that much lower in adjusted yards per attempt as
the caliber quarterback he is. He's not like Dylan Gabriel bad.
You know, he's not Bryce Young bad.
So he's he probably can't fall that much more is the the nice
thing, but it it does probably continue to drag Bonex
basketball teams down a guy that I I think I want to I have to
give you your flowers on this one.
I think he's aging pretty well as a basketball pick for what
he's been. Is Caleb where you you've been
very much on this all season where the ceiling is undeniable
for him. Like you put this guy in a good
spot and he's not always going to capitalize it but on it.
But boy, when he does right, it's a fun.
Yeah, we're, we're, we're in strong agreement that he's a
pretty limited reality player. Yeah, but his like his, his, his
play style lands the fantasy points and in those cushy
matchups, he takes advantage of them.
And and obviously he got the Bengals without a Trey
Hendricken Hendrickson last week when the Bengals were pushing
the Bears. Like that is a nut nut spot.
And obviously he did capitalize and but I, I, I think that's
like, I don't can't imagine like a better scenario for a
quarterback then the Bengals without their start pass rusher
and then then the Bengals also scoring points.
So you have to keep playing fast.
But yeah, he he did. Sure, sure.
Take advantage of it. You're right.
Yeah, I I mean like probably pretty frustrating quarterback
for season long. Like in our main event team we
have Drake May and Caleb Williams.
We didn't start Caleb Williams over Drake May this week.
In hindsight that looks terrible, but I mean the the
only. Time we would have won our match
up if we just played Caleb. We would have, we would have the
the only time we've ever started Caleb over Drake May was in the
Cowboys game earlier this season.
But it's just been he's Caleb has had good spots before too,
and it, it is just hard to predict.
Even even if the good spot presents itself, it's not a sure
thing that he'll he'll produce at the level that he did.
Bombed the Saints game. That was the right one where he
had the great match up that he didn't play well.
So when you have a, a quarterback like may where it's
like even in the bad games, you just probably get a nice solid,
you know, 20 point floor in a, in a format where you're having
to choose who to start, then it, it is kind of hard to start him.
But I, I think, I don't know, I, I wonder if his price falls next
year for bestball, if people are like a little out on him, 'cause
he'd be the kind of quarterback where if he ends up in the back
end of the window, he's like in the 12th round.
That's a super appealing. I, I'm like, I'll be full 100%
on board. Caleb stand if you give him to
me in like the 12th round, he probably probably still goes
relatively high though. Just it's, it's gonna depend on
like how the season finishes. I, you know, bears probably
missed the playoffs and then so it's just going to depend on how
they look, you know, in the final weeks of the season and if
he does have some really big games or not.
Because I think the recency bias really, really impacts the
initial pricing of the quarterbacks.
And then people get pretty tethered to prices.
They they do not budget too much there.
So another guy, this is a a trend that we discussed at
length. I think a couple episodes ago we
talked about Daniel Jones and how he was kind of sun running
sack rate and boy, the regression all came in one game
here. Yeah, really, really hurt him in
this game. I mean, my my sense is it's more
I I'm I think I'm more likely to put this as blip on the radar
category rather than like wheels coming off category for them.
They've just been so good this season.
But it it is, you know, it is a good reminder that when a guy is
running as hot as that at, you know, in a stat where we have
and. You know, I've got bad news.
So he get he does get the Falcons this week, but then
they're at the chiefs, They play the Texans defense, they play
the Jaguars defense, they play then they're at the Seahawks.
Like that's a pretty rough. Stretch.
That's a pretty rough stretch, and obviously the Chiefs and
Seahawks are playing pretty outstanding offensive football,
so it's not like those don't scream to me game scripts where
they'll just be up to hand the ball off and I can get her done.
Like they're going to have to patrol to win those games, I
think. Yeah, Texans 1 is I mean woof,
like the Texans match up for for the Colts is probably just
really not fun for for Daniel Jones.
I mean, just end up with a. And and Jags have a good defense
too. Yeah, and they, man, I was
surprised how much they were buyers at the, at the deadline
'cause they're sub 50% to make the playoffs right now.
Like that's a lot of buy in to do for.
I mean, I, I guess like you're in, you know, you're in year 1
of the Liam Cohen era. And it's not like the Jacoby
Myers one didn't make a ton of sense to me from like a long
term thing that's really like we need, we need a bridge to get
us, you know, until our guys are healthy and then we can be in
the playoffs with our, our actual receivers.
Cause like Jacoby Meyers on his last year of his contract and
like, I don't really think he's the kind of player that you want
to go out and pay the 1520 million.
Yeah, the market rate is going to be ridiculous for what?
What the Jags benefit from him right with Brian, Brian Thomas
and Travis Hunter there. But anyway, I, I, we, we've
gotten on a tangent on Daniel Jones, the other guy that I had
a note on. This was like the first game
that I watched of Drake May where I I thought he
legitimately looked. It was probably his worst play
that I've seen of the like worst sustained play.
The thing about Drake May is he'll have a bad play or a
couple bad plays in 1/2 or in a game, but usually like bounces
right back or does something incredible where it's like, Oh
yeah, it doesn't matter that he takes a bad sack here and there.
He's just so good that he makes up for it.
The second-half of this Patriots game.
If you're a Drake may hater, go watch the second-half of this
game. You'll you'll have a lot of
ammo. He just he kind of looked shook
to me like he I think that the Falcons blitz was really getting
to him. I mean, they end up really the
fumble at the end of the first half kind of set it off where
there's only 30 seconds left in the half.
They get pressure right up the middle.
And he's just like kind of the lack of urgency of like
realizing, OK, I, I need to get out of dodge right here.
And instead like taking the bad sack strip fumble and they end
up getting the ball down on like the five yard line or something.
And and the Falcons get right back in the game because of
that. And the whole Patriots offense
kind of sputtered in the second-half.
So I think this was a good spot to highlight.
Like we kind of get the dichotomy of the Falcons defense
where against the Dolphins, they were so neutered.
It's like, God, how does the Dolphins do this to the Falcons?
And I, I look just to verify this, but Falcons are second in
blitz rate and they're 6th in quick pressure rate.
And so where that does nothing against a team like the
Dolphins, where it's like, who cares if you pressure like,
yeah, good luck pressuring us quick.
We're gonna, the ball's gonna be gone well before you could
possibly pressure us. Like Tua's releasing it so fast.
And Drake may He should not. Glitz for dolphins.
Yeah, don't, don't bother. Like just just make Tua sit back
there and beat you like it's. Gonna be real quick.
I ain't worried. Yeah.
But against Drake May, that was, that was the recipe, man, that
really disrupted what he was doing.
I don't know, you know, if maybe they really dialed it up in the
second-half. I, I haven't compared like the
splits from first half to second-half to see if the blitz
rate picked up or anything, or if it was just that the Patriots
were less effective at dealing with it.
But that was the worst I've seen him be in that second-half.
So that was that was him looking mortal and something I just
wanted to flag is like, OK, this is the weakness for May.
And Pat actually kind of flushed that out in his walkthrough this
past week where he said if there's a spot that can give him
trouble like this, Falcons defense is kind of designed to
to do the things that would probably be bad for him.
And that was very correct. So I I think that's a just a
good mental note to have as far as like match up stuff for in
the future. If you do have a team that gets
quick pressure and that blitzes often, that could be trouble for
Drake May, at least until he figures out how to stop taking
sacks. But that's that's definitely
still a problem for him. Yeah.
And and what I see here is interesting.
So he had a 30% pressure to sack rate in, in week 9.
His, his like full season is like 28 or 29%.
Like it's you've had your finger on the pulse on this all year,
but it's certainly his his kryptonite.
Like when when he's playing against teams with a good pass
rush. I, I he dealt with a pretty
effectively against the Browns, but that's certainly where he he
falls down. And then I see he also had to
turn turnover where he plays for a 10% turnover where he play
percentage pretty, pretty, pretty per game over all for
him. Yeah.
Definitely fantasy day but but per day overall?
Yeah, the fantasy day basically all happened in the first half,
more or less. And then he just kind of
sputtered out. But the last quarterback I had a
note on was JJ McCarthy. I so I heard stuff that
conflicted with what I thought from watching this game.
And so I, I went back and, and dove into it a little bit more.
I, I've seen a couple people say like Juju McCarthy was actually
pretty good. And I just, I don't, someone,
someone explained to me like I'm legitimately asking like explain
to me how he was pretty good. I think that, I think where the
people are coming from that are saying that is that the bar was
so low that you were just expecting absolute like non
functional offense from the Vikings where it was like, Oh my
gosh, they won the game. That was great, but it wasn't
because of JJ McCarthy. Like JJ McCarthy had 35%
pressure to sack ratio. He takes 5 sacks, has a 56%
completion percentage. Like they're more or less hiding
him. You know, like he he only has 32
drop backs. It just didn't it, it didn't
look great to me either. Like he also gets bailed out on
a couple bad. Throws like this what I what I
what I noticed is the first like 2 drives were solid and someone
was like well maybe these are probably descriptive plays for
JJ McCarthy where he looks solid and then they go to the rest of
the game plan and and and he falls apart.
Yeah, I could definitely see that being the case.
I hadn't picked up on that. But that might be I, I should go
back and watch it again because when I watched it the first time
through, I was, I was like, yeah, this this is more or less
what I expected. Probably like a little better
than I expected because I I thought that.
There were some really bad outcomes in the range there, but
maybe I was just a a little too focused on the later plays and
and not the early ones where he looked good.
But I just there were a couple throws to me that were like,
dude, this guy's getting so bailed out by the fact that he
has Justin Jefferson on his team.
Like Justin Jefferson is making crazy catches where it's like,
I'm I'm sure that, you know, the Amazon next Gen. stats had the
catch probability of that pass at like 20%.
And Justin Jefferson's like, don't worry dog.
I got you. I mean, he he does.
Seem like even in his kept fleet clean splits he still only had
like. So this is no pressure.
He still only had five and a half yards per attempt.
What I'm like confused about is PFF gave him one of the like the
best passing grades on the week for clean.
And I'm like, how does how does that work?
Still only a 53% accuracy. And I guess he had two drops and
but that's, that doesn't strike me as particularly significant.
And yeah, but I, I, I'm with you relative relative to low bar,
like where we were thinking like, OK, this guy is just going
to shit on himself. He didn't.
He didn't quite do that, but still pretty ineffective.
Yeah, didn't, didn't need to change his pants after the game,
but you know, like it, it wasn't that much better than that.
He's still he's still down here with Tyler Shuck and Bryce Young
and you know, and like again, the drop back volume is they're
very clearly, you know, O'Connell is clearly hiding him
like he is not down to have the full JJ McCarthy experience,
which is probably smart. This guy's barely played any
games in the league like and he's struggled so far.
So like throwing him to the wolves and having him do like
the Joe Flacco or Dylan Gabriel 40 attempts a game like that's
probably not good for him. And so I'm willing to I'm
willing to give him a shot and say like maybe it gets better.
But I I think the most likely outcome is that you get sub
Carson once level play for the rest of the season from him,
which is just not a a place you want to be living.
Right, right, right, right. So that, that's our, that's our
notes on quarterback. Let me switch this to running
back, zoom out a little bit. And so you're, I, I appreciate
you doing the show notes again. Your first note was about Chase
Brown where he, he's, he's so back.
And the what? When you drafted Chase Brown in
the second round, it was because you knew about the contingent
upside from Semi JP Ryan, who was clearly going to get
injured. Yeah, I mean, it's really funny
when you're getting bailed out on your Chase Brown pick because
Samaji P Ryan twists his ankle on a special teams play that is
like, you can't make that stuff up.
There's there's zero chance that someone tells you that in the
offseason and you're like, that's that's not a thing that
could happen in the NFL. But fun story, I guess.
I do think it's pretty good for Chase Brown, though.
You have the they've cracked open the window for Taj Brooks
to get an opportunity now. I don't think it's going to
happen. You know, it's the competition
hasn't been fierce for our boy Taj Brooks this season.
So I believe he only ended up with one carry in this game with
P Ryan being out. So the, the Bengals have already
shown us what they want to do when they feel like they don't
have anyone but Chase Brown, like they'll, they'll just feed
Chase Brown 1,000,000 touches. And so he kind of looks like
he's going to get there again. In that same way.
I think the big question on Chase Brown now is how long is P
Ryan out? And what's the probability that
Taj Brooks is actually good enough to, to cut into the work?
He he's probably like inherently a pretty big dog to eat as much
work as P Ryan just because if he was good enough to do that,
they like, he probably would have gotten the opportunity
before P Ryan. So I think you're you're kind of
wheels up for Chase Brown here, at least for a couple weeks.
So he had a 95% snap rate in week 9.
So this magic P Ryan and yeah, they, they, they barely got they
barely got Brooks involved. They gave Brooks tree snaps and
and only 11 rush attempts for Chase Brown, obviously trailing
script for them. Is 1,000,000 targets.
Though 40 tree at routes and then a 30% targets per at run
there. He he ended with 14 targets,
right? Fourth, yeah, I I was going to
say that that that's going to be a lot of targets.
It was. Crazy.
Yeah, that that's a pretty good expected points profile.
And yeah, and I guess you, you, you, you come back full circle
to to Chase Brown just getting all the work depending on how
long smash JP Ryan is out, but that's pretty phenomenal for
him. Yeah, there's definitely
something to be said about when thinking through the contingent
upside, like the ability of the guy to consult, like could the
could the team realistically be like, yeah, you can have 95%
snaps? Sure.
Like, is that a thing that a team would do with this player?
I think a good example of of, you know, the difference between
contingent upside being realized for guys is look at the Giants
backfield after scataboo goes down.
Tons of the weight. You know, the number one lean on
waivers is Tyrone Tracy. Turns out singletary's the 55
and Tracy's the 45 in that backfield.
And it's like, yeah, that's just a clear, clear profile
difference between Chase Brown, who, you know, massive bell cow
in college, and Tyrone Tracy, who's like converted wide
receiver. Not going to not going to carry
a huge workload like that. Never has.
So just something, something to be mindful of when you're
thinking through contingent upside bets and how you're
pricing that in best. Well, I, I think that's an
interesting thing. Another guy who had massive
contingent upside, Kyle Manongai, just enormous,
enormous day. I mean, he so my he he gets huge
positive rush yards over expected in this game.
I think he ended up with like more than 70 rush yards over
expectation in this game. My I there I have a problem with
this stat because it's like what some of these like go back and
just do like freeze frames on the Monongai runs where it's
like, all right, the blocks are all set up.
Here's the rushing lane for Kyle Monongai.
Like what? What are you saying is the
expected yards here? Because there are some where I'm
like the expected yards are all of them.
The expected yards are the ones between the running back and the
end zone. From.
Here, like so how how do you even and like I get it that his
thing is not top in nasty speed. You know, it's he's he's a big
bruiser downhill runner and like that's his thing and he ran
great this game. Like, I'm not taking anything
away from him, but like, dude, if you have DeAndre Swift in
this game, he also runs for 200, but it comes on like 15 fewer
carries because he just houses. Like there were, I want to say
there were like three runs where it was like there's a bunch of
green grass and there is one dude who has a chance to tackle
a running back with any kind of speed.
And and it's just like, all right.
And you know, Monongi gets tackled because he doesn't have
any kind of speed. But like, I mean, even DeAndre
Swift, who are not like, I, I don't think either of us think
DeAndre Swift is like the best thing since sliced bread or
anything like that. He's been running well this
year. But like you plug Swift in to
those exact spots and I I think probably two of the three go for
breakaway. Yeah, Swift hits the homers.
Yeah. But but I do think that what
you're likely to get out of this is Manongai has has definitely
earned himself the David Montgomery role in the Ben
Johnson rushing offense. I think you actually talked
about this earlier this season, right?
Did I? Did you not?
Maybe I'm just attributing something to you that.
I'll, I'll take it. I mean it.
It makes sense. It makes sense Where you, you,
you don't want to be using a player like Swift between the
tacos more more often than you have to.
You you're at your best where you're hitting outside zone and
you're getting pitches, sweeps screen, stuff like that.
And so it, it, it makes sense that if they're impressed by
what he did on Sunday, that they would use him and a lot more
between the tackles and, and, and I have to go online for
sure. Yeah, I do think in general it's
probably not as bad for Swift as like the immediate market
sentiment would probably think just because it was already a
split. And like if he if Swift does
cede more work to to Monongai, it's probably the lower value
stuff, you know, like he's still gonna keep the passing game
work. The the real problem would be if
Swift seeds share of goal line and Green Zone touches that he
previously would have got and now seeds those to Menongi.
That's like the big pain point. But Menongi was already getting
a lot of the, you know, short yardage stuff and goal line
stuff. So I think it's not quite as bad
for swift as as it would seem, but it's definitely a big boost
for Menongi. Definitely a little bit of a,
you know, a knock for Swift, but I'm like, I'm not like panic
selling Swift or anything here, you know, for pennies on the
dollar. Yeah, so I'm looking at, I'm
looking at Manon guys inside the five and the last beat prior to
this, the last two games. So week seven and eight he had
he had an inside the rush carry in each of week 7:00 and 8:00.
Then he had two week 9, and I want to compare that to like
Swift. Yeah, it's a good time.
So Swift had tree in week 8, two in week 7.
So Swift was still Swift was still very much the lion's share
of those inside the five carries before this.
So there is there is room for him to get hurt then if Monongai
takes more of that. So that would be how he gets
hurt the most. For sure, I, I don't, it's still
an open question to me on, on if they would do that, because
like, I think it's not a secret how much the Bengals defense
think so the, the, the, the, the, the, the bears off like the
offensive coaches, like they, they probably know that, that,
that a lot of his success was based on on them kind of not
being great. And then the other thing is, is
even though Menonga got 2 inside the five carries, he didn't
convert any of. Them.
Yeah, no, he did. He did get.
Stuff. What is his name?
Britain. Britain.
Britain Brown Yeah, Britain Britain brown.
He he didn't get any inside the. Or is it, is it British?
Is it British, Brooks? Now I know it's Brooks.
Yeah, it's Brooks. Yeah, you're right, 'cause I'm
like, I, I thought, I thought he actually did score and British
Brooks, that's the, that's the name.
The first thing I thought when I saw that name was like, what's
wrong with American Brooks? So he he also got 2 inside the
five Russia 10 and then did not convert any of them.
All right, I think that's everything on the Monongai big
day. Another guy who had a really big
day and just has been stringing them together is Rico Dowdle,
who just he's fully iced out Chuba.
Chuba just did almost nothing. I think he was like 14 iced.
Yeah, it was it was not good for chuba.
You probably I think you're you're more or less just the
flip inning happened. Rico is you know the one now and
and it's not right they. Said we try.
We we try to give. They, they, they tried.
They basically said, hey, I'm coming after Tuba's injury
because we gave him the contract.
But what he's done for us, we try to give him a chance to like
keep that role, show that he was still the guy, but it's Rico,
the Rico show going forward. So they, they said that and and
that's certainly, yeah, that's certainly what they're they're
doing. So let me, I'm just going to
confirm for you. So 7076% snap share for Rico,
20% snap share for Tuba. So yeah, that's that's that's
like when we were kind of classifying running backs into
categories and the way we would have classified this backfield
was very clear Rico starter and then tuba is a frisky backup.
Yeah. But we would have said if, if we
hadn't known about the split, that's how we would have
described it. So I guess tuba nothing more
than a desperation start. Oh yeah, you're not.
You're not starting Chuba anymore.
Like unless, but like, like and you're going to lose if you if
you have to start them probably. But yeah, he he's not, he's not.
He's basically not in play in in in any format now.
Yeah, where Rico is is a complete smash.
There's another backfield where I think a lot of slappies out
there were hoping that it would kind of go that way where you
get the flip inning, especially with the team coming out of the
bye. Unfortunately, the Jaguars did
not go that way. Travis ETN had a huge workload
over 20 carries. Looked good too.
Like did did well with them. It is against the Raiders, you
know, so we're we're not not going to go crowning king of the
world or anything, but he looked very solid and they trusted him
with a lot of opportunity. I don't think that you're going
to get a Tooten takeover anytime soon.
Tooten still probably just to hold.
You know, I don't really know that you.
Cut tooten, like the way this this backfield is kind of like
A602020. Yeah, Etienne has a 60, Tooten
is is 20, but mostly on rush attempts.
And then La Quinta Allen is 20 based on that, the receiving
stuff. So like if it weren't for La
Quint, you, you, you would almost have something there for
tooten. And but that's, that's not what
Tooten does. I don't think you, you trust
tooten to be your, your main pass blocker like you do with La
Quinta Allen. And and it's like like you have
to be I, I don't, I don't see how you just overtake Travis ETN
unless ETN takes a nosedive like he, he like Tooting is explosive
enough that like the upside is still there.
But like you're saying and they the flipping the the increase to
Tooting that we were hoping for out of the by just not not
materialized. Yeah, you're you're an injury
away for for sure here, which the the tootin price really
wasn't that much more expensive than than a handcuff.
You know, like you, you had some guys that were getting
meaningful work that were going to hit your lineup in best fall
going where he was going. But by the end of the summer he
was he was close enough to handcuff prices where you really
were getting basically all upside at the at the cost.
But yeah, you're the the way this season's running out.
You do need an injury to ETN for Tooting to really to smash.
And you know, like there's lots of pick like you.
You just saw it with Rico where I mean, without the Chuba
injury, like he he really wasn't taking over.
Maybe it happens on a drawn out timeline.
I do think the injury probably plays into a lot of the Chuba
decline where he's probably just a better player without the
injury. And so the door is not as open
for Rico there. So if you get something similar
like that for ETN and and Tuten, then yeah, maybe the the door
can crack open. But right now it it does look
like Tuten is just like pure handcuff, more or less so.
Yeah, yeah. And then your, your next note
was about so Kyron, he he he's traditionally been drafted as
like, OK, I know he's not the most efficient, but he gets all
the work. He gets all the work where where
that is just not the case anymore.
And I think, I believe it's actually not been the case for a
couple of games. Where Yeah, it's been a few.
Hiring is like a 60% player, like Quorum is about the 40%.
So like it's A1A1B situation. So yeah, pretty nice win for
Quorum at the prices he was drafted at, but not not like
given, given the even even with given the discount on the risk
with that risk materializing. I I don't think like a turd or
or fourth round pick is looking great at at this on this percent
stop share. I think if you like, if you're
telling me late 4th or like early 5th for Kyron, that's a
smash. Even with the best, right?
But but yeah, taking him in the third or three four turn.
I I agree with you that that's a little rich.
The watching the game I was I was kind of like half paying
attention to Saints Rams, if I'll be honest, but I like
really was tuned in on a drive. I can't remember.
Maybe there was like a commercial break on another one.
I I had it on a second screen and so I'm watching it.
And the drive I'm paying attention to is just all quorum
and he's getting all the touches, man.
Like all they every feels like every play is a quorum handoff.
Oh my God, they're feeding this guy what's going on.
And then I realized it's oh, every, every 3rd Dr. is the
quorum Dr. They just do Kairan's two on, then Korum's one on,
then Kairan's two on, then Korum's more, more or less.
That's how it was going and that's how it's been.
But man, just like kind of not super locked in on the game and
then like paying attention for the quorum drive when they're
just feeding this guy, it's like, Oh my God, did quorum take
over? He he has not taken over yet,
but he's like premium, premium handcuff.
I'm super happy to see him on a best ball roster.
And he is like, I'm trying to think of some guys.
OK, here's here's a good one. Actually, let's say that I have,
let's say I have Tyrone Tracy. Do you want to hold Tyrone Tracy
and say I have starting running back points figured out?
I'm not starting Tracy. He's on my bench.
Do I hold Tracy on my bench or do I cut him for Blake Quorum?
You probably you probably the the turn there makes sense.
It it and it is like I guess the the the reason for quorum is to
continue an upside because even though he's getting every 3rd
Dr. they still seem to be prioritizing and goal line stuff
to Chiron. Like if I look up Blake Horn
Corum, he's only got 1 inside the five carry this year.
Where's Chiron has seven, including four in the last two
games for just one to Blake Horn.
Yeah, Kyra's still their favorite, but they're they're.
Working. Yeah, yeah.
Meaningfully. And he's like for clear, clear.
And they're using him in the higher leverage, higher fantasy
scoring situations. But they clearly love Quorum.
And if something happens to Kyra like it's the Quorum show.
Yeah. The next note I had, there were
a couple couple down performances from some top
producing running backs. I wanted to get your, just your
quick thoughts on are you concerned at all about any of
these or is this just kind of like noise, you know, just a
blip? Javonte Williams.
So this is kind of the second bad Javonte game of the year and
which is kind of interesting though he had the bad game and
then he had the bounce back. Let me see.
So obviously he had the bad game for just raw efficiency.
I'm trying to see though, did he break any?
Did he break any tackles? So.
He had a sick pass block. He had a really sick pass.
Block. Here's one interesting He he, he
forced 7 missed tackles against the Cardinals.
He had two breakaway runs, 34 breakaway yards.
I think, I think that the, the, the Cardinals just dominated
the, I think they just dominated the, the, the, the, the, the
Cowboys online. I I, I don't, I don't think
Jomante necessarily had a bad game.
No, it's it's not one I would be concerned about.
Going forward, OK, next one, like he still had five and a
half yards per tempt. Like, OK, I'm I'm belaboring
like he had he had a good game. It just it didn't work out.
From fantasy wise, Yeah. Next one Jonathan Taylor, are
you worried? Oh, yeah.
I, I guess the, the issue for Jonathan Taylor is that it's, he
kind of got game scripted out, didn't he?
And not that, not that. I mean, look, I think he
probably still played a lot and locking that up now, So John and
Taylor, yeah, he still, he still played the majority of the
snaps. He's still like he ran 37 routes
to Admir Abdullah's 4, but they didn't target him.
He had a 5% target Sprint run .3 yards per route.
So in, in these kind of past heavy games where they're
running a lot of or where they're trying a lot, I, I, I,
it's hard for Jon Taylor to get going.
He only had 14 rush attempts. Have you seen how many rushing
yards he had? I can I can look that up real
quick. Yeah, he, I mean, he played 62
snaps. You end up with Tyler Goodson in
the game at one point and then Amir.
Right. He dominated the snaps.
But but yeah, he only ends up he
gets 45 rushing yards total and then 12.
Receiving right on 14 attempts. So he ran 37 routes, like I
said, dominated in snaps, but they didn't throw him the ball
and he only had two targets on those and for 12 yards.
And so I think that makes sense because Jonathan Taylor, like
he's kind of like beast mode with running the ball, but he's
not really a good, he's not really a receiver like he, and
he hasn't been like, what is this is his 123?
It's a six year in the league. Like we know who he is and he's
he's not a receiver. So in, in those games where
they're in trailing game scripts, like you probably will
get some games like this. I I, I don't think you're going
to get a lot of that sub 4 yards for attempts games.
So like this is probably like the combination of parlay of two
bad things, bad game scripts, bad efficiency.
Like you could see a bad game script game where he
nevertheless still rips off a 50 yard touchdown.
So it's an OK game. But we noted earlier in the show
that they have some tougher matchups.
And so those those could be a bigger struggle.
And maybe you're not getting 100 yards, 150 yards and tree
touchdowns every game. Maybe, maybe there's going to be
some of these type of games sprinkled in as well, is what
I'd say. Yeah, as we as we kind of get
further in the season, let me let me read you some opponents
that JT has already faced. So he faced the Dolphins, the
Titans twice, the Raiders. And then going forward, we're we
are all out of Titans. You know, we, we don't have any
like Bengals or Cowboys or any of those like really cushy
matchups. He's got Falcons, Chiefs,
Texans, then Jags, Seahawks, 49ers, Jags.
Yeah, he's got Jags twice, Texans twice.
Texans are in Week 18 though for the second one, so for our OK,
won't matter but. OK, good talk.
But yeah, it's, it's not a, it's not a walk in the park for his
upcoming schedule. Yeah, fantastic player.
Like he's definitely going to have some big games rest of the
year. They're they're a great team.
He's a fantastic player. Like they're they're going to
curb some some more teams, I think.
But the the schedule is much, much tougher.
Much tougher. Like they they, like you said,
they've already played the Titans twice, so that's out.
And now they've gotten the two tough defenses twice, one of
them Week 18. They've got the Chiefs.
Yeah. If you were, if you're offering
me odds, is he going to score less points in Week 10 through
17 per game than he did one through 9 like you'd probably
give? Those would probably be pretty
short odds that he'd scored last per game.
Yeah, yeah, I think you're probably like 3 to one that he
is going to, you know, outscore like even worse potentially just
because he's ran so nuclear hot in the first, right.
Again, like not taking anything away from him, He's he'll still
probably be, you know, the best player in fantasy for this
season. But we're just saying relative
to what he's done already this season, like it's probably gonna
be an uphill battle for him to to be that good to close out the
season. It'll still probably be very,
very good. OK, Last guy.
Did you have any concern for Jameer Gibbs in his bad
performance against the Vikings? No.
There was a sorry, go ahead. No, you go ahead.
There is some really good analysis from Gretsch on this
one. And he he shouted out, I'm the
name is escaping me of the guy who did the write up on this.
But he was, he's mentioning that the Vikings really, really
focused on getting a gap pressure.
And it was effectively, it's basically like a way to cover
Gibbs while also, you know, forcing Goff to get the ball out
quickly. Because if they just send a gap
pressure all the time, then Gibbs is the one that's picking
it up. And so it's like.
Well, you have to block your running back if there's AA gap
pressure. Yeah.
If you you had 15 pass blocks for for Gibbs in week nine and
only two for Montgomery. Like Gibbs was on the field for
32 and pass it passing plays and and Monty was on for 12.
But you you only had 17 like 17 rats for Gibbs versus 10 for
Monty like that. That makes sense.
And then his target spread run supremely depressed with only
18%, I guess only 18% but and his yards per hour run pretty
low too. So he must not have been
catching at those targets either.
Yeah, I just thought that was a really cool, right strategic
decision by by the Vikings to say, hey, what if we just did
this thing that, you know, kills two birds with one stone?
We'll get pressure and we also will not have to cover Jameer
Gibbs like that. Does that sound like a good
thing? Does that sound like a thing we
want to do? Let's go ahead and do that.
So you know I. I I bet, I bet there's counters
like you. You live in one of your your
you're. You're blocking tight ends in
the backfield and and you block him instead.
Yeah, I mean, or, or you just design, you know, quick screens
where Gibbs goes like he's gonna pick up the guy and he just lets
them through and all of a sudden here, you know, Jameer Gibbs
with a convoy of offensive lineman or downfield.
So. Right, I'm sure the.
Wound block, the Diego guy, like stuff like there's, there's,
yeah, like you're saying, there's there's different ways
of getting around it or you just play Gibbs in the slot.
Yeah, it's like, yeah, use use someone else to block, please.
Yeah, yeah, let's let's get our most explosive player actually
involved where he can get the ball.
But yeah, the Giant or the Lions did not figure that out.
Lions did not figure that out in real time.
And that definitely was a big part to them losing.
But I agree with you, no concern for me on Gibbs going forward.
OK, A couple other quick ones. Is it Jover for Trevion
Henderson, he gets all the opportunity.
I think for me it's more of like a tale of two halves where if
you watch the start of this game, Trevion looked pretty
awesome, man, Like I was, I was into it.
He's he's converting first down after first down.
Got a couple chunk runs like right off the bat.
It's looking good. It felt like they were using him
more in the ways. I mean, they did run in between
the tackles some and he was fine there, but there were a couple
plays where they just get him outside and it's like, yeah,
this guy's pretty good when you get him in space.
But then the second-half was just like nothing.
Like I believe the majority of his opportunity comes in the
first half and he just was after the the initial like really
couple good runs he has the efficiency was not there for the
rest of the day. So I don't know if it was more
of a team level thing because the Patriots as a whole looked a
little out of funk in the second-half.
But what did what did you think about Trevion here in his his?
Yeah, so I'm looking at his stats and obviously he so he was
on the field for what 51 he had, He played 51 snaps.
He had a 75% snap share. And here's here's what's crazy
to me is you're telling me he only had a 3.9 yards per tent,
which obviously not great, like not not what we want.
He only had five targets for receptions for 32 yards.
So 888 was that 88 yards per catch.
And we obviously we want, we wanted a better game.
We did. We really, really wanted a
better game with the reminder injury, like 75% snapshare and
he doesn't play that great. It I, I, I'm obviously an
apologist at this point, but the, the team not having a great
game. It, it does shade that a little
bit. It's hard.
It's hard to panic on that. And like you'd you'd like to see
him force more than one missed tackle.
You'd like to see a long run of of longer than 8 yards.
Can we get any long runs please for the home run hitter?
Yeah, right. Are there any long runs
available? Like he had a 27 yard running
against Cleveland and that that's been the longest of the
year by I I go to mount like it's it's not Jover and and
honestly, this, this is better than I could have been.
Like I was really. I agree that with Ramandre out
that that they were going to committee the shit out of him.
At least they made him the clear starter over Jennings.
Like Jennings also a rookie and but it would have been nice to
see him take a better advantage of of the opportunity.
Yeah, I, I actually, I'm taking this as part of it is like
setting the table of of where we really were on Trayvion.
We were like, we were very squarely on the way to bust
town. You're like bust was the most
likely outcome, you know, prior to this week.
I think you got enough this week where it's like the probability
of bus declined a little bit. I think it's still the most
likely outcome, but they had but if.
It was a just pure committee, like it would be like, Oh my.
God, it's it's toast. Yeah.
But yeah, I think, I think we're, we are firmly in the
leaving the light on territory for Trayvion.
Yeah, yeah, I saw somebody, somebody in the chat.
Sorry, I'm only saying yeah, somebody was saying that Swift
and Manangai are the same size so they're interchangeable.
That blows my mind, but I don't it doesn't feel true.
DeAndre Swift, Wait. So it's just like 220 coming
out. I thought 0205 OK. 205 and his
height is 5/8 and then Manon guy wait is 2O7AT58 That's
interesting. Yeah.
So at the Manon guy. It was like a slower version of
Swift. OK, yeah, Swift was 212 official
at the combine, but he he's definitely smaller than that, I
guess. Yeah, yeah.
Well, I think the other thing is that he he plays smaller than
that yes, when you're when you're at the goal line, you
don't want somebody who's just going to like change like new
plan. No, you want like shortest
distance between two points. NS get her in and I could I I'm
just saying I could see somebody.
I could see the coaching staff preparing that from the non guy,
but that that is a good point that they're that they're
practically the same weight. But I, I, I, they don't.
They don't play some right. Yeah, agreed.
OK, we, we need to finish up running backs here because we've
been taking a while here. All right, I'm going to just
rapid fire this one. I had a note.
I regret to inform you, Tyrone Tracy is not it when the guy
cannot beat Devin Singletary for for snapshare.
Sorry, that's just it's not going to cut it.
Don't think we need to add any more analysis there.
They're just both if you're if you're having to start either,
like I'm very sorry for your loss.
Other fringe running backs that you could be sad about.
Texans running backs just I mean, yeah, Woody Marks is the
one you want to own, but it's like, which would you prefer?
Do you want to stub your toe or do you want a paper cut?
Like there's no winner here, You know, it's just it just stinks.
The other one you could be sad about Kamani Vidal.
So this is weird. Patterson actually got basically
the same number of touches as Vidal.
I don't know if you saw this. Vidal plays way more snaps than
Patterson, but they basically get the same amount of work.
I mean, to me, this is just like, hey, by the time Hampton
is back, don't worry about Vidal, really.
But. Yeah, so they, they, they gave
him, they gave Vidal 12 at rush attempts, Patterson 9 and then
Vidal gets 24 routes to Patterson's tree, but none of
them get targets. No, no, no targets for you, Sir.
Which it is. It's surprising that there was
no check downs. But I don't know, like if if
you're Justin Herbert and you have this pretty nice wide
receiver on tight end room, do you want to throw it to Kimani
Vidal? I didn't think so.
No, I think I'll just throw it to Rhonda Gadsden or Vlad
Mcconkey and then the last fringe running back that you can
be sad about Bill, Corey, Krosky, Merritt.
I think it's pretty not good for him with Daniels out.
I think Daniels helps a lot for Bill.
I think it's definitely worse now that the Daniels is not
going to be there. I mean, I, I heard some, I heard
some analysis that like, oh, well, they've got nothing to
play for anymore. So maybe they'll just feed him a
bunch of work. It's like I that's that's more
like a Hopi about me. Yeah, yeah, I don't know.
Like that could happen. You know, he could get more work
because they don't really want to, you know, put the ball in
Marcus Mariota's hands a ton. But I don't know, man.
I think I think it's a net negative when you lose a
quarterback as good as Jayden Daniels.
Like you needed, you needed touchdown equity for you need
touchdown equity for Bill. And this definitely hurts the
touchdown equity. So I think it's a pretty big net
negative for him. He's still getting opportunity.
And Snapshare running back. So he's like he's like the head
of a tree way committee, which is not am it.
That's not very good. And then you take the the the
ceiling of the offensive efficiency from led by Jaylen
Daniel Jayden, Jaylen Daniels to Marcus Mariota.
And this is like probably borderline startable for fantasy
boardable board bordering and startable.
But it's just not very exciting, I think.
And if you look at if you look at some of his kind of stats,
he's played pretty well. Like his his yards over expected
per attempt is pretty good. So he just hasn't had big runs
lately. Like the last four games he just
hasn't had any big runs, which is.
You know, it's definitely, yeah, that's a little fluky.
So, so perhaps perhaps that you you got some big games or bigger
games going forward. But again, he's also a seven
round pick. Even though the team really
likes him, they've given him the backfield or they've given him
the lead in the backfield. It's, it's not like we have this
special reason to think he's a special talent.
So I, I, I agree with you, you could have big games going
forward like you did have the, the massive game against the
Chargers, but it is a, it's, it's, it's definitely lower than
50 percentile outcome than you would have given at the start of
September. OK, my last note, I believe that
we are going to have to go to the backups chart to see this
guy. Yeah, sure.
But RJ Harvey has has now scored enough.
I mean, all he does is score touchdowns.
So you know, he he's got that going for him.
But he scored enough to where in the lowest of keys, he's not
actually that bad of a best ball pick where he went.
I mean, he's not great for managed because you're never
actually starting him right. And and if you are, it's it's
probably because you're losing. But he's he's put up three like
very usable weeks for best ball. You know, you'd prefer to have
more, But I, I think he's, he's starting to become not that bad
of a pick. I mean, provided that you built
a running backroom around and that could could support a guy
who's really not. Helpful most.
Was Bayday injured last week? I don't think so.
Let me. Because he didn't play a snap.
Let's see. I.
Don't see anything. Yeah, I don't.
I don't see anything on it. No, I don't see any either.
When I type in his name, I see these like what you call it.
I see Broncos fan accounts with fiction that they're going to
trade Beatty to to the Dolphins for jail.
He did. He did play a he played snaps in
in Week 9. He has 13 snaps in the
backfield. Oh, OK, OK.
I might, yeah. He just.
OK, He he on, on, on, on rushing.
So yeah, OK. Yeah, Yeah, you're right, You're
right. Yeah, he just, he didn't have
any. Carries.
He didn't play snaps, so he had turtane snaps.
He had one. He had Turtane routes 1.
Rounds 13 routes, yeah. OK.
So he didn't, he didn't get a target and how many routes did?
So Harvey had 17 routes, so at least advanced past Bay Day in
terms of like receiving work, which that's positive.
He also got 5 targets, so 7 touches.
And if you're going to score a touchdown once every seven
touches, you're going to be pretty good.
Yeah, he, I think actually Harvey probably benefited the
most from from Mims being out because he kind of, he kind of
got the stuff that Mims got last year out of the backfield,
right. Right, that that makes sense.
So yeah, it's it's weird. Harvey is kind of like the.
I mean, if you're looking for. It's encouraging that he's he's
he's gone past them Bayday, though, like he was kind of
stuck sharing or behind Bayday in past and receiving stuff area
in the year and now he he's advanced past them.
So he he's kind of charging in on a 1B roll, which not what he
wanted, but. He's like fledgling, fledgling
joker role in the Sean Payton offense, which again, you, you'd
really love more than that. But I, I, he's one where down
the stretch, it wouldn't surprise me to see him get more
opportunity, you know, and make it more of an even split with
Dobbins. Just he's, he's just keeps
scoring touchdowns, man. Like, there's all, there's only
so, so much you can do to earn your way out of the field.
But I do think he's, he's 1. You have to be at least a little
excited for going forward. The the you know, we definitely
are leaving the light on for him, too.
Right, right, right, right. For sure.
And the last two weeks he's been ahead, yeah, updating in
receiving work marginally. But like you said, if he keeps
going touch sounds, what else does he have to do?
We had a question in the chat, what do you make of the
Cardinals backfield? Is Bam Knight droppable and
FFPC? I mean, if you have starting
running backs, Yeah, like, there's no, there's no ceiling
for him. You're not, You know, you're the
reason Bam Knight is on your roster is because otherwise
you're gonna play someone that's gonna score two or three points,
you know? And very likely that time is
coming for Bam Knight here. If Trey Benson gets back.
Yeah. One thing that I noticed is in
in the South, the game away mode, and this is one of the few
games I actually watched in the South the game away.
I I so I had I had a matchup at where we had McBride against Bam
Knight. We had the points advantage, but
you we had a sweat. So I was I was following Bam
Knight in them in the salt the game away.
It was dim Mccardo who's getting the carries and when when when
they needed to get first downs, it was him.
And if you look at Dim Ricardo, he had 14 rush attempts to Bam
Knights 9. So it kind of started the game
with Bam Knight getting a lot of the rush attempts and finished
the game with Dem Ricardo getting the rush attempts.
And what's kind of surprising is that Knight still finishes ahead
and routes, whereas I always thought of Demericado as like
the receiving work guy for now. So that's, I have to admit, a
little bit confusing, but I think unless there's an
unreported injury or something like that, you're probably
looking at 50% Bam night. And yeah, maybe.
And then there's another note here.
Maybe it was just a drive by Dr. Rotation and I, I, I, I
certainly didn't notice that, but but I think that does speak
to like you're probably looking at a 50% work share right now
and that that obviously goes away When when what's his name?
Who's the Benson? Benson comes back Yeah.
Is he dropable? Yeah.
The, the the wire is pretty barren at this time of year.
I think you still give him another week to kind of figure
it out, to figure out where he's at.
And but you were probably you're probably not feeling too bad
starting him going into last night.
But after last night, like he's a pretty shaky start.
Is is is my analysis? All right, let's move on to
tight end here. Yep.
So this is this is this is what we've all been waiting for.
I mean, I think we have to, we got to start with the cover boy,
we got to start with the Brock Bowers analysis.
So 37% targets per route run for Bowers.
It seems pretty good. My, my note on this is there
will be no survivors among the faders.
I, I mean, like, here's the thing.
You don't need a 37% targets per route run for Bowers to
annihilate you, but you might just get it.
Like it's not going to stay at 37% for the whole season.
But I mean, talk about building the plane out of a guy.
They're they're actually not building the plane out of Brock
Bowers. The plane is Brock Bowers.
There's no like there's no parts that you're building out of
Bowers. The whole thing is Bowers.
And I think it's pretty evident too, because you look at Gino in
the two games where you have Bowers healthy, he puts up
decent games. And also like if you watch Gino
play almost every snap he's immediately staring at Bowers.
Like I haven't looked at the first retarget stuff yet.
The first retarget stuff for Bowers has to be through the
roof man. Because it's you can.
I mean, you can just bet on it every snap.
Like you already knew where Gino's head was going to turn,
just like, OK, where's Bowers lined up?
Oh, he's over there. He's on the right side of the
field. He's lined up out wide right
now. OK Gino's going to look right
first. Oh, Yep.
There he goes. OK.
And then it's like, oh, Bowers is running like a longer
developing route. He's like going up the seam.
Oh, OK, Gino started, you know, from the left here, and he's
working. You know, there's a guy that's
working underneath. He's checking that for, like, a
quick hitter. And then he progresses to
looking at Bowers as he goes down the field like it's all
Brock Bauer's all the time. Yeah.
Yeah, the. Next, like what's what's kind of
wildest that he runs? So like he's kind of projected
to run like a 4-5, which I, I think I think that's probably
about right. And he's what, 200 and 42150
lbs? We're like he's he's probably
not maybe not quite Gronkowski physical dominance and but
pretty, pretty close to it and pretty, pretty fun ride.
Yeah, the. They obviously they trade, they
trade Jacoby Myers away and they bring in and they're going to
emphasize probably Tyler Rocket more and Jack Beck more, even
more reason to to to make Bowers the feature.
Yeah, they're, they're going to give him all he can handle.
All right, the next note that I have is you thought this note
was going to be about a different player.
It's actually just another Bowers note.
He is number one in PFF receiving grade at the position
#2 in yards per route run. And that's, that's including his
games where he was playing with a massive knee brace.
So if you just look at his two healthy games in, you know, in
the second-half of the first game of the season, he was not
healthy. But in if you just look at his
two healthy games, week one, week 9, his yards per round
round for those two games is 3.77 small sample, but you know,
pretty, pretty good. And then when targeting him,
Gino had a 147.0 passer rating last week.
So again, pretty good. Think think Brock Bowers might
be pretty good. OK, that's that's all the Bowers
stuff. I promise we we do need to pour
some out for Tucker Kraft here. I I feel a little responsible
for mushing him. I I finally came around and
capitulated on what seemed like unsustainable efficiency for
Tucker Kraft. I just, I said it's he's just
good. He's just kind of baby Kittle,
but unfortunately he tears his ACL.
Always a bummer when a player that good.
I mean, it's a bummer when any of these guys get injured like
that and it affects their likelihood, but a a big bummer
when it's a guy that's producing at the level that he was.
OK. This is 1 where I think Kyle
Pitts is actually like low key pretty good for fantasy.
I mean, especially at his cost that you were drafting him at.
He's just like a very solid, getting targets kind of guy with
a decent A dot, and he's right. He's Fort in in tight end air
yards. He's probably for this is this
is for the full year and then he's fifth among tight ends for
targets and you were drafting him what probably tight end
131415I. Mean, I think even after that he
was like, yeah, he's going after Ferguson, after, you know,
Goddard, after Kincaid. So he's pretty, yeah, when they
said they were going to get KP the ball, they're they are
getting KP the ball and like he's got a 92% route share, 20%
targets per out run. Like obviously I think this is
disappointing relative to our expectations for Kyle Pitt's
overall career, but this is a pretty good at receiving a tight
end role. You could.
You could definitely do worse, you know, OK, the next guy, just
we don't have to spend a ton of time on this because we've
talked about him basically every week for the last three weeks.
But Gadsden is just continuing to string together good games.
He is like very much a, not just like involved in the offense,
but a, you know, a staple in the offense going forward.
Right. Yeah, even on these kind of off
games, he's still posting like a 15% target spread run close to a
10A dot. So still like 10:50 early yards
on like a kind of like a down game, so to speak.
Consolidated the route. So 85% routes, massive, massive
win, massive win. You you start them every week in
the flex in the. Juwan Johnson is the next guy.
I have a note on he he had a good game.
He gets in the end zone here. And what do you think about him
now after the Shaheed trade? I mean, I would assume that he
soaks up a little bit of these targets.
He's he's probably a decent buy here going forward, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, he's, I mean he he's, he's held on to a pretty
strong role this year. So 82 on, on the full year, 82%
rats run, 19% targets per out run.
Let me see where he comes out in terms of like just overall
targets. That's probably going to be the
most favorable to him. So Juan Johnson, where is he?
Oh, here he is. Here he is, so he's so oh,
that's why I couldn't find them all the way up at the top.
He's number 3IN in tight end targets and this is on the full
year. So and then #2 just behind
McBride in terms of tight end our yards.
So he had a pretty strong role already.
And then you probably see some of that go more towards him and
Olave that Shahid was getting. I really think, though, that the
shock over Rattler is a bummer. That's a really a bummer to me.
And I'm hoping I'm feeling less optimistic than I did last week
that they that they transitioned to to they go back to Rattler
and but very, very strong roles for the for Juwan Jennings,
Juwan Johnson is what I'm going to say.
Speaking of another Johnson, Theo Johnson, actually pretty
interesting from an opportunity standpoint.
The problem is he's well, I don't want to just call him bad,
but he is he is both good and bad.
He he has a couple bad drops that I I've seen just watching
the giants like he's not not the best at the catch point.
He's he's OK with the ball in his hands, but the whole getting
the ball into his hands part seems like that could be a
challenge for him. But he's getting the
opportunity. He's out there all the time, you
know, so he's you could do worse.
Yeah, he's got. A 78% route share on the year
and week 9 now 72. So he's so he's close to he's
somewhere between 770 and 80% route share, 15% targets per run
on the year. He's got what, 7.1 A dot?
Yeah, both of both of those have been trending.
Enroll. And it's been trending up lately
is a thing too. Like he's higher targets per
route run lately, higher a dot. Yeah, true, true.
It's a, it's a solid tight end role.
It's like you say though, like even though like he's definitely
NFL quality, he's not at, he's not at the top quality of of the
position. So like you, you, you've got a
limitation there from the talent perspective.
OK, we saved the best for last. I know you're frothing at the
mouth to get to this tight end, but Colson Loveland did a thing.
Greco. Yeah, he he, he had a massive,
massive breakout and he's another guy where his so last
week he was at 21% target spread, run 77% routes at 11 A
dot. And they had a lot of dropbacks,
which I think that that's kind of a feature of that Bears
offense. And then when you compare that
his 21% target spread runs, he's 17% for the full year.
So like I, I, I think my, to kind of wrap a narrative around
this, I think if, if we had not seen the command injury, we
would have seen Loveland surpass command at this point anyway.
And and then you see them him pull out a massive, massive play
when they needed to win the game where like he got open in in the
space between the zone. He took a huge hit, like spun
around, kept running like he didn't like like nothing
happened. You you that that I'm pretty
excited about that, where I think he's already earned that
starting role and I'm hopeful that the big performance.
That means that he's a bigger part of the the receiving game
as well. And like such a great rookie
tight end profile where like he he was like the receiving
offense at Michigan at such a like young age and then supreme,
supreme draft capital for a tight end as well.
So pretty, pretty excited and I, I, I was, I, I needed this like
I needed there. Like, I was like gasping for
something from Loveland. So, so love to see it.
Yeah, definitely optimistic that he can now make the most of some
increased opportunity off of this big production.
I think that's all for tight ends here.
I guess the other thing I should note his A dot for the year is
10. So like that's pretty, that's
pretty strong for a tight end. So like if you can get decent
target share, especially down the field on a good route share
like that, that's a that that should hit pretty, pretty nicely
down the stretch. Yeah, that's a good shout.
All right, let's let's head to receivers here.
So the first note I had on receivers is actually Colston
Loveland's teammate got Roma Dunesday here where man, the
regression do be hitting hard for Roma Dunesday.
I mean, if you remember back to like week 4, Roma Dunesday is
like that, the top of the very, very top of the chart.
You know, it turns out you cannot sustain scoring 5
touchdowns in in four games. That's not a thing unfortunately
over the course of the season, unless you're, you know, like
with Damien Tomlinson or something and with Damian
Tomlinson, Roma Doonsay is not puts, puts up a zero in a game
with like 80 points, so. That's tough, isn't it?
That's a little disappointing if you're a Roma Doonsay manager.
I mean, the you are experiencing the pendulum of regression
swinging back the other way right now.
The where the real Roma Doonsay production lies is probably a
little bit better, honestly, than where he's sitting.
Right. Like against Baltimore, they had
114. He had 114 yards on 10 targets.
Yeah. Whereas this week he only has
two targets, doesn't catch any of them.
That that is that is pretty puzzling.
Like did the did the Bengals decide you will not beat us with
Romo, Donzi? There there's been some, there's
been some ball knower film grinder talk of, you know, the
Bengals shut down corner taking away #1 receivers and, and
that's why. But I mean, part of it, I do
think part of it was Caleb kind of got frustrated with him early
in the game. Rome, Rome drops a touchdown in
the end zone, hits, hits him in the hands and Caleb is visibly
upset. And like, that's it basically
like doesn't really throw it anymore.
I, I kind of feel like Caleb put him in time out.
So I mean, could it be that, you know, the Bengals #1 corner is,
is good. And I mean, he, he's definitely
shut down other #1 receivers this season.
But I, I think it might be, I, I think it's a little foolish to
be like, Oh yeah, that's the reason why Roma Dunes didn't
produce. Like, I, I think that is a
factor to why. But I, I don't know that that's
everything. I, I do think part of the roam
profile is he's the guy that Caleb is passing to deep down
field. And so you are going to be
pretty vulnerable to the volatility that comes with that
role where when it's going good, it can go really good.
Just like Caleb, like Caleb's production is like that too.
Now it's pretty unlucky that it, it didn't sync up in this
massive game for Caleb. You know, you you would expect
that to to trickle to roam some, but that's just the nature of
the profile. He has the really D Bay dot and
you know, Caleb himself is pretty volatile, not the most
accurate passer. So you're you're just gonna have
to take the good with the bad with a a profile like this.
I mean like if we were. Helping.
That's part of the NFL, isn't it?
Where yeah, like sometimes these receivers, they they have, they
have small games. Yeah, I mean, where where he
sits on the on the chart, like his his chart neighbors like
Devonta Smith, you know, A.J. Brown, those are kind of like he
can nuke just like those guys. And he also can have a pretty
quiet game just like those guys. Now they're they're a little
different in why they're quiet where, you know, for the Bears,
it's just like, oh, it didn't work out and for the people.
If A.J. Brown played for the Bears.
It'd be like he'd just be feasting every week, probably.
For for the Eagles, it's like, oh, we decided that we weren't
interested in the forward pass this week, you know, so it's
it's different for why it doesn't work for them.
But but the all his nearest neighbors all are kind of, you
know, like like DK Metcalf is, is sort of like the diet Roma
Doonese of his offense. You know where early in the
season he was getting a lot of underneath stuff, but lately
it's transitioned more to the downfield like he's had the
deeper A dot and he he's like the clear number one, just like
Rome. But it does it doesn't always
work out. So I think he's in a he's in the
right neighborhood on the chart now.
But it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of the season we see
him like, you know, closer to the Pitman range, maybe a little
below Pitman. I bet you see Ibuka still
migrate up some. But yeah, the the negative
regression for Rome has been hitting hard lately, much to the
the chagrin of the Rome slappies.
So OK, the other guy this is this is going to be a wild pivot
as far as like player caliber. But a guy I really wanted to
talk about was Trey Tucker, who is is in the wind sprinter
category here, but only only just now.
Part of why it's it's only just is because he had that monster
game earlier this season, second most fantasy points scored this
season only to his teammate Brock Bowers.
But I kind of think that now that you have Bowers back, the
Raiders offense is in a position to be a lot more functional.
And also like if you thought that defenses were going to get
pay attention to Brock Bowers before, like let me tell you,
like we're we're going to see some pretty pretty high double
team rates for Brock Bowers going forward with no Jacoby
Myers. So I think Trey Tucker is live
to like it feels weird to be like, yeah, remember that like
crazy fluky game where Trey Tucker dropped a 40 burger?
Like that's on the table again, that's not exactly what I'm
saying. But what I am saying is like
Trey Tucker feels pretty live to have some spike weeks down the
stretch here. He's not going to be someone
you're really excited to start and managed, but like as a min
price DFS kind of guy or like really low price DFS kind of
guy. He's interesting to me and
you're certainly really happy about best ball.
Best ball teams with Trey Tucker on him were all it was already
money in the bank and now after the Myers trade and Bowers
return, it's like the stars are aligning for Trey Tucker.
Yeah. And yeah, he, I see he, he had
like a 9% target spread run in Week 9.
Yeah. And wasn't great.
That's still that's still 4 targets because they run so many
routes. This he he was already like you
said, a full route share guy. So this isn't going to open up
more routes for him. It's just I guess Jacoby Myers
was a target magnet and those kind of have to go distribute
somewhere else and that maybe maybe he'll get one or two of
those. And given and like what you're
saying is given that he's the field stretcher and Brock Bowers
probably pulls a lot of that attention into the middle of the
field, him on the outside, maybe things open up and as a Prairie
yards and kind of archetype in DFS that can be at low
ownership, that can be pretty interesting.
Yeah. OK.
Another kind of tangent off the Jacoby Myers trade, Do we think
that that is signal that Travis Hunter's injury is possibly
worse than anticipated where the Jack like?
They maintain, they maintain. Hey, this one isn't too bad.
We put yes, we put him on IR straight away.
But before they by the way, he hadn't had the exam and he was
on IR. Yeah, it's, it's, it's like a,
it's like a hard 1 to parse. Part of me does wonder about the
trade, like maybe that's a Brian Thomas like you.
You noted the Brian Thomas entry.
And he he gets an ankle in this game as well.
Yeah, he adds to the sprain, yeah.
Then they say it's low grade, high ankle sprain, but like
that, that and I guess so that's your second receiver injury.
That does seem kind of like a, it does feel like they've got a
good catalyst or a good reason to trade for a receiver or maybe
not good to us, but like a clear reason to trade for a receiver
outside of Hunter being done for the year.
Yeah, I think that makes sense. I mean, I, I was just looking at
playoff probabilities because we've been working on playoff
basketball stuff for the sidekick and we we have the
Jags, it's 46% to make the playoffs right now.
So if I put myself in their shoes, you know, they're
probably looking at it through rosier glasses than we are and
they're like, oh, we're definitely greater than 50% to
make the playoffs. You know, they probably think
they're more likely than not to make the playoffs and that Myers
being help at receiver while they get healthy is worth the
cost. It's kind of a steep price to in
my eyes, for a A1 year rental of like, you know, you, you maybe
improve your playoff odds a little bit.
I, I don't know my, my Spidey senses are tingling.
I do think the Brian Thomas injury definitely adds to the,
you know, like you said, it's a, it's a catalyst for the trade as
well. So maybe it's not quite as scary
for Travis Hunter having like a longer term injury, but just
thought it was worth noting. The last guy I had on this chart
was also trade related and that's Crystal Labe.
We talked about pretty much everyone else and how they were
affected by that trade, but we haven't talked about Crystal
Labe yet. Can he even, can he handle any
more targets and can can they even target him more?
What do you think about him going forward?
So yeah, he was obviously a big target magnet.
So just looking at last week, he was actually pretty quiet last
week at 13% targets for everyone.
And Brandon Cooks had a decent target spurt run.
Brandon Cooks had three targets would end up being an 18% target
spurt run. I I guess I do wonder if if
Brandon Cooks is the ultimate beneficiary of that of the
trade. You probably, I, I guess what,
what you'd say is that the old Ave. week to week floor on
targets goes up where you probably don't get too many
weeks where alave only gets 3 targets in a game.
You still get the 12 weeks that he was getting before.
Maybe that's like 12 or 1514. And probably the big difference
there is that, like I said, you don't get too many games where
he's he's, he's below 5 targets. And Brandon Cox is to me, I
guess to me he's probably the biggest direct beneficiary of
where like almost by like process of elimination, they,
they have to get him more involved now.
You don't. You don't think this is the
cracked window that Devon Bailey needed to to get his opportunity
goes? Hayden Winks had this where like
if you net out them trading that, so they, they traded 1/5
and 1/7 to get at or was yeah, it was, no, it was like a, they
traded a, a seventh round pick to get Valet and then they
traded Shahid for 1/5. And so like if you net them out,
it's like you, you went from Shahid to valet by going from a
seventh round pick to a fifth round pick and say what, what
are what? Like what are these guys doing?
Yeah, not, not great there. So was Valet even playing
before? Like I don't think he's getting
targeted, but let me let me look up his snaps.
Let's see. Yvonne Valet So he was playing
mostly special teams, so I guess he had 12.
Snaps. He got 1212 snaps at receiver.
Although to be 37 we. Ate Yeah, he had 37.
And let me see how that compares.
I had five targets in Week 8. Yeah, didn't do it.
Yeah, I guess. I guess that that does have the
door open for valet. I do, I do legitimately think
it's door open for valet, but I also legitimately think it does
not matter. Right.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, basically. Basically, OK, Anyone else on
this chart that you wanted to talk about or should we move on
to the next one? And looking through this here
now, now I think with the shihi to the Seahawks, it it makes
sense to touch on Cooper Cup where if you're if you're
holding out hope for Cooper Cup, anything from Cooper Cup this
year, you you no longer should like.
No, Yeah, yeah, that's. I think.
I think the the the light was off anyway, but that that should
be even more opponently clear now.
Yeah, the ship has sailed. Yeah.
So then moving on to our next chart.
And so Rashi has graduated. So now we have the same chart
being broken twice, rather than both of our charts being broken.
Yeah, Rashi and Puka just living up there as the elite weighted
targets per route run guys that also are smashing in in
production. We we talked about Brian Thomas
a little bit on the last chart, but he's he's here on this
chart, you know, sitting right around 60% weighted targets for
route run. Pretty close to Troy Franklin,
Christian Watson actually. But I think your insight about
him being banged up as a catalyst for the Myers trade is
good. I'm wondering, do you think this
is like a buy low opportunity for him because like maybe it's
maybe you finally get the the discount on the name brand.
I mean, he's still like he still should be.
He's. Probably probably a good buy low
for dynasty and and I don't know if it's a good buy low for this
season. You don't.
Think you could come on down the road for playoffs or?
I, I guess maybe maybe it was just like, it's like an
unreported shoulder injury that he's obviously not having
surgery on. We don't know what the, the
prognosis is. So there probably is some
probability that that improves as as the year goes on, but we
we don't like, am I wrong here? There's no reporting on it.
It's like an unreported injury. Basically, yeah, which seems
weird. I feel like you, you kind of are
supposed to report that as an NFL team.
But but you you get your first your first game without Travis
Hunter and you see opportunity open for Brian Thomas now, but
he is so he gets 5 targets the same as Travis Etienne and
Parker Washington gets 9. Diani Brown gets 7.
So like join at the target at #3 and 4 Brian Thomas with Travis
CTN. So like you, you think he's the
one to step up here and it's it's Parker Washington and Diani
Brown who are getting The Who are getting the looks so like.
So not not really. Not your cup of tea for a buy
low here. Yeah, and I mean like, so you
see that and like, oh, I get why they're trading for a receiver
now. Yeah, OK.
The next guy who is on a downward trajectory.
So Keenan Allen has had his two lowest route rates the past two
weeks. He runs 17 routes and 21 routes
the last two games, two lowest of the season.
And I, we, we talked about this before and said, oh, it's
because they're running heavy personnel with Gadsden and
that's what's happening. It's actually not just Gadsden
that is taking him off the field.
He's actually losing the snaps to Trey Harris because there's
still a wide receiver on the field there.
It's just Trey Harris is coming in instead of Keenan Allen on
those plays. I, I do think that they like
Trey Harris as a blocker. So it's, you know.
Now Trey Harris is running routes as well.
It's not like he's only out there to block.
So Keenan is definitely losing some snaps that could otherwise
be valuable to him. I just for me, it is it is a
little bit of a red flag for Keenan where it's like, hey, the
guy who's like 33 years old and his routes continue to decline.
And you know, you have Gadsden already emerged.
And then Trey Harris is now nipping at his heels too.
Like so just bad vibes for me down the stretch.
I mean, if you took Keenan Allen in basketball, you're like,
cool, I already I'm playing with house money here.
So like if Keenan does nothing for the rest of the season, it's
whatever. He gave me some useful weeks
early and now he can sail off into the sunset.
But like in a, in a season long league, like you're now to the
point where I think last week I was at the point where it was
clearly Ladd Mcconkey. You know, a couple weeks back we
said just treat all the charges receivers as the same.
Then we said, OK lad, Mcconkey's the one now.
And then it's Keenan Allen and now it's QJ.
And now I think I'm getting to the point where it's like, it's
probably QJ over Keenan Allen now.
Or at the very least, they're like.
Yeah, Yeah. No, that makes sense.
It makes sense. It makes sense to to get
increased, not scrutiny, suspicious.
That's not the right word either.
Critical of that situation where there was a pretty clear
explanation for Keenan Allen's lower snap count in week 8,
which is they got they played a lot more with the full back.
They played a second tight end a lot more.
And if you remember, my point last week was that even though
Trey Harris was up to 32% of routes, that's kind of been been
where he's he's been at the last couple weeks.
Like Trey Harris was at 34% in week 7 when Keenan Island got
75%. But so like Trey Harris still at
36% routes, there's not some kind of clear catalyst for them
using different personnel packages or whatever.
They're just playing Keenan Allen less.
So you, you get that kind of like close to 50% route share
two weeks in a row. You suspicious, I guess that
that's the word. Your, your suspicion is even
lower that it you've, you've kind of identified A trend here.
It's not just a one off blip. There's no, there's not really a
clear explanation for it. He probably is just a 50% route
share guy. I see he he's still got 4
targets. Yeah, he's, he's targeted.
He earns targets when he's out there.
He's just not out there as much. So like your real risk for
Keenan Allen, you know, if if you want to talk about like
how's he going to shape up on this chart going forward?
Like your real concern for Keenan Allen is he's going to
get demoted to the 40 to 70% chart and he's probably,
probably has an awesome weighted targets per route run still
where it's like, yeah, when he's out there, we throw it at him.
We just don't. Right.
You've probably got a three to four target per game floor there
because they they still want to throw to him.
But when they when they're like let's say week 5 when they had 9
targets, week 4 we had 7, he he's going to have to get out
more to a weak tree winning at 10 targets.
You're not saying that right now.
And we're pretty suspicious that that's not happening again.
So I've got a question for you. I think a week ago we got a
comment that said more playoff best ball talk.
So here it is for the people. You're drafting playoff
basketball teams and you've got a Charger stack and you're
playing Chargers to the Super Bowl.
Baby, you're on the turn. You're, you're on the the 7-8
turn here and you've got a decision to make.
You can only take one of them. Do you want Keenan Allen or do
you want a Rhonda Gadsden? Oh God, they both filled the WT
position on underdog. So they they filled the same.
Boxer spot. They're they're direct
comparables, but you want Gadsden all day long.
You do I, I agree. All right.
Pretty pretty clear cut. The the last guy I had a note
on. We've talked about him already.
Oh. Sorry, I thought, I thought we
were going to go on that decision all the way down to
Trey Harris and I was going to pick QJ over him and then I was
going to pick king of that one over Trey Harris in case anyone
was curious how that that that progression was going to go.
I I think we're in lock step on that.
All right, last guy on this chart, we talked about this
situation a lot, but Rashid Shahid moving to the Seahawks, I
mean, I've gone back and forth on this on if it's actually a
positive for him or not because you just get an absolute target
hog in JSN there, but you are getting a much more efficient
offense. Do you think this is a net
positive for Sheed or is it, is it net neutral?
But you know, you just change the way the the dials are dialed
or what is it for Shaheed going forward?
So I think that overall it's a positive because like you, you
get out from underneath the Tom the yoke of Tyler Shuck.
I think getting away from Tyler Shook is is only positive.
And I guess you go from target magnet of Crystal Levy to target
magnet of JSN. You have Sam Darnold playing out
of his mind, out of his fucking mind.
You have a kind of like a guy who tribes on deep passes gone,
getting paired up with a quarterback showing pretty good
deep passes. I think it's pretty positive for
Shaheed where it's where it's less clear is, and this is where
we're going to go back and forth.
I was like, I guess does it damage and Tori Horton and how
much does it damage Tori Horton? Where I was kind of thinking
like the logical way for me to do this would be that you play
Tori Horton and Shaheed on the outside and then you let JSN
feast on there on the slot. And obviously Tori Horton, he
probably only plays in three personnel.
It's going to be a JSN and Shaheed, the two wide receiver
sets and and and Cooper cups sometimes in 4 receiver sets.
Like to me that that's like the way that wouldn't make sense,
but that's probably a little bit idealistic.
My joke was that like, hey, I'm nowhere near dumb enough to be
an NFL decision maker and these guys have a have like Galaxy
brain, not dumbness that I can't even fathom.
And what are they paying? Like cook like 50 million a year
or something crazy. And like he probably like he's a
vet. He sounds like a vet.
He talks about the preparation. He probably does all these
little things right. And it probably is actually very
hard when push comes to shove to actually take a guy like Cooper
Cook off the fields. So I like, I'm still holding out
hope that Tory Horton, his 83% route share is, is going to hold
up decently, but it probably is idealistic.
Yeah, I think the way I where I land on it is this is definitely
worse for Tori Horton than Cooper Cupp, but it's it's
partially because it was already bad for Cooper.
You know, like it can't you know, Cooper cup was already
dead and what what is dead may never die.
Like he he already was gonna he's gonna lose the work to Tori
Horton or he's gonna lose it to Sheed like, but the the
unfortunate truth is Cooper Cup will remain involved regardless
of how washed he is. You know, he he's going to still
be getting snaps. They'll probably go down
substantially. But what you're left with is
just a smaller pie for Tori Horton to get a slice of because
Shaheed is is here now to take a, a, a slice of it.
So that's the the unfortunate truth for Tori Horton kind of
get the breakout stifled. Really.
You know, Torry Horton blue balls here, unfortunately,
because he was he's pretty fun. But I mean, it's pretty exciting
for the Seahawks man, just from like a real football
perspective. And and I mean, you want to talk
about fun playoff best ball. Oh, baby, give me like last
round Torry Horton. You'd probably get some like
8th, 9th round Rashid Shaheed too, Like that's some that's a
fun team. And and the the problem with
them is their running backs kind of stink for fantasy.
Like they're just not massive producers.
So they are, they're definitely one where I'm looking at like,
gosh, I can just get, you know, I get JSN early and then I'm
getting like Sam Darnold and you know, Horton and Shaheed as my,
my final three picks are Seahawks.
I can I can build the whole Seahawks bet just by taking JSN.
I mean shit, you probably can get whichever running back like
your literal. Last four days you're probably
going to get pretty good prices on them.
So it's basically a week. To week ceiling is probably
pretty good too. Yeah, the more I think about
this, it's like you just take JSN and then your last four
picks or just whatever Seahawks are there.
You know, like I don't even care if I have to take an Elijah or
if I'm doing Seahawks to the Super Bowl.
Like you're telling me like, uh oh, dude, you missed out on
Rasheed Shaheed on this team. It's like, great.
I don't want 100% of my Seahawks teams to be Rasheed Shaheed.
I'll gladly take an Elijah Arroyo or AJ Barner team, you
know, right. I mean, God forbid I might even
take Cooper Cup team, you know, depending on how how the rest of
the season shakes out for him. But like, yeah, I I think
Seahawks are definitely a pretty fun one.
Where the other one that I think probably shakes out in a similar
way where it's just all cheap guys you just can totally
backfill like your last four picks of the draft can all be
the same team. That's a a pretty high, you
know, playoff probability and conference championship
probability team is the Packers. You know, Packers get a little
they're they're like a little less fun after after losing to
the Panthers, but you probably just get, you know, all Packers
receivers and Jordan Love in the last four rounds.
All right, that's plenty of playoff basketball talk off of
the Torrey Horton tangent. The other notes I had here,
Xavier Worthy, not great, not not super great.
He's just like pretty squarely. I mean, if you look at his his
chart neighbors here like that kind of do be what he is like.
He kind of is like a, you know, he he's souped up Hollywood
Brown. He's like fancy Hollywood Brown
on the Chiefs. He's getting more targets for
sure. You know, he'll score more
points than Hollywood Brown for sure.
But like, I mean, Taekwon Thornton is there.
Hollywood Brown is there. You get Steph Diggs who's who's
not on the field as much. But yeah, I, I don't know, man,
it feels, it feels not super exciting for Worthy going
forward. I, I think my, my offseason take
was that Xavier Worthy. You were just drafting fancy
Rashid Shaheed in the third round.
That's that's aging like fine wine right now.
Yeah, but well, especially with Shaheed now getting getting a
much better team situation. Yeah, it's, it's I think when I
when I think about wordy, I think about what we liked about
his his profile so much where he had the phenomenal freshman
season. And then I, I, I this, I guess
this is this is a tangent, but I, I just wonder if the guy with
the blazing 40 time having the great freshman season and then
being quiet for the rest of his college career, maybe that's not
as good a profile as as we would have taught before.
Because like it reminds me a little bit of Rondell Muir, who
had the blazing 40 on their sized, had the great freshman
year and then pretty quiet otherwise.
And I'm like, well, maybe, maybe the freshman great start for the
trailblazing speed guys. Maybe that's not as good a
signal as as we want because like you're kind of you're
almost double counting that like the great 40 time means they get
off with a great freshman start. But you you kind of need
sustained production in college to to really fall in love with
the profile. Man, I made the Xavier Worthy
note because I thought I was going to have fun shitting on
Xavier Worthy, and then you go and compare him to Rondale Moore
and now I'm just really sad. So.
Obviously like you're, you're getting a much better outcome
than that Rondell Moore but. I know I'm just, I'm sad that
Rondell Moore busted and and and sad about Zakir Worthy, but
yeah. Yeah, I know.
Like it. It's not like this is a pretty,
this is a pretty decent year for overall.
It just it's not what you want it to be like.
No, like you get 23 yards and seven targets from that, you get
124 air yards. So like it it definitely like
this game could have hit in a much bigger way for Wordy.
And it's it's kind of Jameson. Like the idea of like this is
potentially, yeah, the idea that this is one of the best
receivers, potentially one of the best receivers in the NFL.
Like we've we've kind of seen, we've seen.
I don't see the the book is written but.
Yeah, that's that's certainly that's not that's not the thing.
He's not he's not one of the best receivers in the NFL.
But and also I I want to retract my it's Jameson Williams coded.
He gets way more targets than Jameson Williams.
That's not fair to Xavier Worthy.
He's way more involved than that.
But the production is a little he's like Jameson Williams with
a slightly better floor where like, he's not exclusively deep
balls. You know, Rice coming back
definitely hurts them on that front where so much of the
manufactured and short stuff is just getting gobbled up by Rice.
But yeah, he's he's like higher floor in Jameson Williams.
We'll we'll get ceiling games from Xavier Worthy.
He's gonna you know, Hollywood Brown is not the only one that
can catch deep balls from Mahomes.
You know, although that's how it's been over the last couple
weeks. Like Savior Worthy is in fact
allowed to connect on deep shots.
Like you will get right. You're gonna get those games
where he does connect for sure. But yeah, it's it's been been
disappointing so far. All right, the other notes I
had, I talked about Diggs already kind of in a rotation,
you know, just getting limited snaps.
Pop Douglas has been pretty good lately, actually Pop really
making the most of his limited snaps.
Problem is you can literally never start pop in a managed
league. He's just he's barely running
routes, you know, but when he's out there, man, he he do be
good. But yeah, he's basically, he's
just basically like the Steph Diggs breathe.
Like when Diggs needs to come off the field and take a
breather like Pop Douglas is, is the Steph Diggs replacement.
So. It is kind of wild, like he had
it like 7 yards per run. Yeah, I mean that that can
happen when your quarterback is the best deep ball thrower to
ever play the game. And no, I won't apologize for
that take. Best game.
Because I ever played a game. Yeah.
So I mean, like, I guess on on an alternative perspective,
Douglas obviously had the insane per rat efficiency last game.
He's like good, not great. 20% Tiger spray run, 2 yards spray
run on a 44% right chair. Like you certainly see the
ceiling. We just saw the ceiling.
But like you said, you there's nothing, there's nothing
consistent here in which you can start them.
And I I don't think it gets. Solid per rounds.
I, I don't really think it gets that much better for him even
with the booty injury. He's not, he's not doing the
booty stuff, he's doing the dig stuff.
Like he probably gets some more snaps with booty out, but it's
not like you don't just get to 1 to 1, lift him and be like, now
you get the booty snaps. Like that's just not what
they'll do. If anything, I think Mac Hollins
is the biggest beneficiary of the Keishon booty injury and and
it sounds like the booty injury is a pretty mild hamstring.
Interests you in Kyle Williams seeing a 50% route share.
I did see Kyle Williams ransom routes.
So when did the did the booty injury happen early in the?
Game. Yeah, yeah.
OK, so like Kyle Williams, clearly a a beneficiary, but not
not he's not he's not suddenly a Sergeant now he plays, but he's
not a player. The the window is open for him
to get a morsel of opportunity. So if if he can play you, you
got to play better than Mack Hollins.
That's the bar. You got to go out there and show
your stuff and show you're better than Mack Hollins.
But I mean, right, Mack? Collins only 50% red share as
well in Week 9. I I don't know if the people
want to hear this trick, but I think Mack Holland's a pretty
good playoff basketball pick too.
Ever Evergreen content? I mean, if you're playing
Patriots, who by the way, are are, you know, 20% chance to
make the conference championship at this moment, which is pretty
good, basically like 10% chance to make the Super Bowl.
If you think about it, it's kind of kind of cool.
But yeah, I mean, if you're playing a Patriots to the Super
Bowl build, Mack, you could do worse than Mack Collins, you
know, All right. Very last guy I had was Parker
Washington. We talked about Parker
Washington a little bit. I mean I I, I.
I want to take some credit for for Parker Washington going in
the in the ship chasing ship cast parley.
I, I, I, I I'd like to, I'd like to believe Pete watched our show
and said, yeah, I'm putting Parker WA in the in the parley
here. Now I know that's, that's not
the case, but I know we talked, we talked, we talked them up as
if like they, they love this guy.
And then Travis Hunter got injured and they, they, they do
love the guy. Oh yeah, he was I mean, he was a
great play. I do think he's a great sell
high candidate here, though. If you can get absolutely
anything for him, he's probably he's definitely not of the
caliber where you're like setting him one for one for
anything meaningful. But he's, you know, gotten a ton
of targets and opportunity lately.
And then, you know, you have the Travis Hunter injury.
So maybe you could throw him in a package, you know, as you're
as you're approaching trade deadlines, sticking in a package
with a guy, you know, it's just something where someone checks
out his profile. They're not super plugged in and
like, oh, Parker WA 9 targets. Oh, wow, you know, like
something like that. He's just like a little deal
sweetener. But I think he's he's back to a
pumpkin with Jacoby Myers. Like it's it's curtains for for
old boy Parker here. I, I, I, I don't know, I think,
I think their love for Parker Washington mind might live on.
I mean, for, but for like how long, man?
Cuz like you're, you're saying unless you think that Brian
Thomas is like really, really injured and, and not going to
like, if you're saying, Hey, Brian Thomas is effectively out
or like maybe he's playing, but he's not effective for the same
duration that Travis Hunter's out, then I'm with you That
Parker Washington's still an involved part of the off, I
guess. Once, once.
Once Travis Hunter comes back. That's probably when it's
curtains until Travis Hunter comes back.
I think Parker Washington routes and opportunities will continue
until that morale improves. OK, that's, I think that's
reasonable. I think a big part of it comes
down to your interpretation of the Brian Thomas injury
timeline, which like I was mega Brian Thomas injury bear prior
to last week and then now he adds the ankle.
So I probably should land a little closer to where you are.
I just Pat and I had been doing playoff basketball ranks.
So we've been we're looking too far into the future.
You know, we're, we're like 2 months.
From now, yeah, I I see that for sure.
I see that Washington's fucking dead.
The. Immediate and maybe that's why
it's a sell high because the immediate prospects are pretty
good. But yeah, as you as you get
later into the year, it's hard to see him being a sustained
playoff contributor. So, yeah, maybe you, maybe it is
like it's one more week of Parker Washington.
Who do the Jags play this week? Let's see, they play.
Oh, the Texans. Oh, no, never mind.
Yeah, just sell it now. Just get get rid of him now.
So don't try, don't be greedy. Don't try to hold it through the
Texans game with hopes of good production that you can sell.
It's yeah. Well, I'm I'm saying like with
the immediate prospects being pretty good because like he's
got the route share, he's got the opportunity until these,
until Travers Hunter comes back, now is the time when you'll get
the most value for him. No, I, I was with you.
I was like maybe I can be greedy and like hold.
It one more Oh, you were you were taking what I said to like
an an extra degree and there you're like, OK.
Yeah, I I want to, I want to be able to Duke the box score
bandits. You know, the guys in your
league were like they, they have to see it in the box score to be
able to trade for a player. You know, you never in a million
years could you possibly trade for a player that hasn't done it
yet. You know, like I I want to I
want to be able to sell to those guys too, but but I don't think
I don't think Parker Washington is for those players in your
league. You you just go ahead and sell
high now if you can. All right.
I think those are all. This week.
Yeah, that's that's everybody. Well, thank you for joining us.
Now we are officially halfway through.
In fact, we're more than halfway done with stat chasing, I
believe because we're we're certainly not going to have a
Big 18 stat chasing. So greater than 50% in week 17.
I don't think we have either I. Don't think we've, I don't even
know if I think weeks. I think week 15 is the latest we
go because like, we're not doing on a Christmas either.
Yeah, I know in the past we've, we've either I've been
travelling or, you know, we haven't, haven't done a a week
16 or or so. I'll, I'll, I'll look back here
and see what the latest. I mean, this is really good
podcasting. When you're ready to sign off
and you're like, what's the latest?
We've actually done this podcast.
Right. Yeah, we're just, we're just
burning. We're burning.
Yeah, like everybody's turning off the podcast.
So like our, our, our like finish ratio is just plummeting.
Yeah, looks like Week 15, Week 15 in 2024.
You know what we did do a Week 17 show in in 2023, Probably a
I'll conceived one at that. I don't, I don't think we're
going to be running that back this year, but yeah, more than.
I would probably like a yeah, a year in review type there.
I I think that sounds, that sounds about right.
Maybe we'll do that when, when we ship the FFPCBBT.
We can. We can do a year in review,
yeah. That sounds sounds good to me.
All right, see you everybody. Thanks for listening and then
I'll see you next week.