Hello everyone and welcome to a May 6th edition of ADP Chasing.
We've had about a week of drafting since the NFL Draft and
AD PS are moving all over the place.
Rookies are still steaming up. Cowboys running backs are
steaming way up the boards. We'll break that all down and
more. This is ADP chasing.
Let's do it. Pat Fryer, Helmo.
This is why. This is why I'm hot.
Anita. Hand job, fix your sight.
Jamar Alpha, play chase. You can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finally at this point.
You're right. Good afternoon fellas.
How we doing? Weekend of drafting season or
post drafting season? How are how are you guys doing?
Doing great man. I I am.
I'm having a hard time. Are you guys having a hard time
not drafting as much right now before the before the schedule
is out? I I'm currently having that
issue. Well, you what you do is you you
Max center slow the the mini schnauzer.
That'll that'll kind of hold you off a little.
Yeah, I 9 tabled the Schnauzer just fired them all at once and
got it done on on the day it opened, so can't do that.
I've been limiting myself for basketball mania to cardio only
drafts. That's been my way of limiting
myself. I think I've only done like 5 or
6, but yeah, it's hard. I mean the the release is coming
soon. I I think I read somewhere it's
usually the first or second Thursday in May.
So I think it's gonna be this week, right?
It's supposed to be. It's supposed to be.
Thursday night is what the is what the sources are are saying.
I just feel like what's what am I gaining versus losing, You
know what I mean? Like and the ADP values are kind
of settling a little bit. I mean they're not fully
settled, but are they gonna be like that much more settled by
Thursday? So I've I've been, I did some DK
their middle contest, 'cause my thing with that contest is like,
I didn't even Max it last year when I should have.
But I just like it's it's hard to get enough enough bullets in
over there. So I just anytime I'm I feel the
draft itch, I just. Do one.
You got to do 25 in May as well, yeah. 25 in May to maximize rake
back if if any of you guys don't know that actually you need to
do 26 'cause I think the first one is free and they don't count
that you you get a free ticket. So I think you need to do 26 in
May. OK.
Got it. So you get like what?
You get 100 bucks back or something if you do that?
Every every entry gets 5 free then that.
What they'll do for those of you who are planning on maxing is
there's going to be a different offer every month and then there
also is going to be a cumulative reward for doing 150.
You you could basically end up doing the DK Miley rake free if
you play the the tickets and everything correctly.
Got it. You don't have to do anything
right, You just draft the teams and.
That's it. Sometimes you have to opt in,
this one you do not. Sometimes you have to opt in to
the promos. But for this you do not.
Got it. Let's dive in here guys to the
ADP risers and fallers pulling up now the biggest risers since
I guess it wasn't really ADP risers.
It's almost like initial rank risers to today.
Whatever that was in there originally was not really.
ADP was kind of initial ranks we have here.
Two of the biggest risers are Zeke Elliott and Rico Dowdle.
They're both up. You know, Zeke's up 73 spots.
He's actually flipped Dowdle. He goes at pick 133 now and
Dowdle goes at 141. Still feels like fairly cheap
prices. But I'll start with you, Davis.
What's been your approach to the Dallas backfield?
So I just updated my I just updated my ranks today.
I I have Dowdle ahead of Elliott, I think by like 3
spots. It's a it's definitely a low
conviction thing because the deal with Zeke is we've always
been forced to pay for the guaranteed touches.
And look I hate it as much as you guys do but in Mike
McCarthy's mind and Jerry Jones's mind and Dax mind and
Elliott's mind he was not signed to share this backfield with
Rico Dowdall. I I promise you beyond a shadow
of a doubt that is not the idea that the organization has they
they are completely planning on just Zeke the you know we go
with Zeke goes right I I mean that is the way that it feels.
The thing is is he just has got like no giddy up left.
The the only possible way he ends up featuring on winning
teams is if he he he actually does what the opposite of
Pollard did where Pollard just could not score touchdowns from
the one yard line. If Zeke just scores every short
yardage touch he gets and obviously Dowdle has like just
you know, massive, massive contingent value and and should
play some passing down stuff as well.
Yeah, that makes sense. The way I was thinking about it
in terms of like, if you want to talk yourself into the upside of
Zeke, it's maybe like the Leonard Fournette 2021 season,
right? Like not not the season where he
split with Rashad White and kind of sucked, but the season before
that where he didn't do anything great, but he just accumulated a
bunch of red zone looks, a decent amount of receptions.
It's it's not a super high upside case, right?
It's like RV 2 land probably, but that's something of it.
Pat, are you starting with Zeke? Are you ahead or behind on Zeke
at this current ADP? What?
Are your thoughts basically even?
I think Davis is right. I flipped.
I flipped Elliott as he was making that point.
We had them back-to-back and I just put Zeke ahead.
I'm OK Zeke kind of getting away from me at this point, but I I
think he's fine here still. And I think the upside case is
basically just what he was last year like kind of just really
boring dump off stuff. But they trust him in passport
and so he'll be out there. It's not like out there to be a
pass catcher, but he's out there to do, not to not screw stuff up
and he can do that. It is tough to draft a guy who I
think is like completely washed. So you know, I find Dalto to be
a little bit more intriguing as like you know he.
Maybe there's something there? Maybe there's something there.
Yeah, he he hasn't like played enough to even, like register
any metrics, but he looks interesting whenever he's out
there. So the most infuriating thing,
pat on that is NFL Next Gen. Stats.
I think you need a minimum of 90 carries to get charted for that.
And he had 89 last year. No?
Really. We we were literally, yeah, we
were literally one away from getting the Rico Dattle success
rate numbers, but we couldn't quite get there.
Yeah. So I did pull up like PFF has
some stuff on him that they will, you know dabble in the
smaller sample stuff if you compare. 48.9% Success Rate from
Pro Football Reference for Rico. OK, I don't know if the
definition of success rate is the same on next Gen. so I don't
know how to compare that to Zeke.
Yeah, but anyways. And and the success, I really
like the the next Gen. stuff 'cause they they can like see
the location of the defenders and stuff and so it I I it's one
of my favorite metrics, those two.
So it's a shame we don't have it.
The thing with Zeke and then this is what we're talking about
like this. If you look at Zeke in this
chart here, this explains like who he is and who he isn't.
Now he can be still a competent receiver, you know, 1.3 yards
for outrun last year. That's a top 12 number for
running back in the NFL. He can catch dump offs and not
make mistakes in pass protection.
He'll be out in the field doing that sort of thing.
And then success rate 42%. That was 15th best among, you
know, 50 or so running backs last year.
Again, he he could be effective in short yardage stuff.
But man, look at the breakaway rate.
It's hilariously bad. 2.6% breakaway rate.
I think he that means he had maybe like one or two carries
over 15 plus yards last year on all of his touches.
That's really bad. So I mean he is truly washed
from like a breakaway long speed, all of that.
Can he be competent enough to accumulate touches with Jerry
Jones, You know, putting his weight behind him?
Sure, I guess. I think it's possible.
Yeah, I mean, you're kind of like.
Definitely possible. It's just like, what do you win
when you win with Zeke? Very, very little.
He he, you know he's like he's like reverse James White where
it's like it's like he can get you a floor by scoring A
touchdown per week but but like he score weeks he scores a
touchdown. It's like he gets like 13.6
points. The thing that scares me about
Zeke and the reason I am drafting some of them, is that I
think you might win something when you win because he's he's
out there on passing downs. You know he's potentially he's
like you're getting you're getting like dump off stuff
which can kind of get you there on its own.
And then if he's also the goal line back, I mean he could beat
Jamal Williams. Could he beat Jamal Williams on
the Cowboys? Kind of could.
Easy, easy, Just posted in the chat Zeke's pricer Zeke's price
right now is cheaper than Jamal Williams was in 2022.
That's that's the bet so and and if he's Jamal Williams from 2022
you win at this price. I mean very clearly.
So yeah, I think he's he's pretty draftable.
I take two is like unless I I think the question on the
Cowboys running backs is like is there a high chance of them
bringing in. So easy was lying, he noted.
He was lying. He was actually going much later
than this. He pulled.
He pulled a real he he pulled a real Davis on that one.
It was just like, theoretically, it sounded true.
So. Yeah, he went full Davis.
If it makes it part of a good argument, that's fine, you're
allowed to lie on, correct? But so my point with with these
two is like, unless they're gonna bring in someone else
significant, I think they're both just smashes at pick 13140.
And I sort of compiled like who are we worried about them adding
here? I think it would be one of these
trader cut candidates like. You don't have the right name to
worry about on here. There's there's actually one guy
who would be gettable in a trade and would come in and
immediately be a seventh round pick.
Damien Pierce. The Cowboys traded A conditional
fifth round pick. No.
No, he's not. He definitely is not.
No. Come on.
Done. Dude, they they just didn't.
They buried him. They immediately they were like,
yeah, this is you're not it. He's lost his job.
So bad to Devin Singletary. He's not the first and won't be
the last. Zeke would run circles around
Damien Pierce. I, you know, I don't know.
I I mean, I think Khalil Herbert is the other one I I think.
That's a good one. Herbert's got some.
Juice. The two that would immediately
make me draft differently would be Khalil Herbert and Damien
Pierce. I'm not sure Damien Pierce would
beat out Trey Sermon. Oh, come on, come on.
Damien Pierce was a Damien Pierce was a good player as a
rookie and he just, he just didn't play last year.
Yeah, because he got benched is why I didn't play.
I mean a lot of guys get it's just like we've been having this
whole argument in the ship chasing discord for like the
last like 3 hours about running back production.
It it really just matters who the coaches are going to give
the ball to. And I would imagine, because
I've seen it done, that Pierce can just handle 250 touches in a
way that I don't think Dow will probably can.
I mean like physically you can like hold up to 250 touches, but
I just, I don't think he's got the, I don't think he's going to
compel anyone to do that. Yeah.
But I think like the overall point is any, any name on this
list, like even the best one say we think it's Khalil Herbert.
It's still not a guarantee that Cleo Herbert comes in and steals
the job. I think you'd probably be the
favorite and you know it would matter what they traded for him.
But there's just not like last year and prior years there's
been these free agents hanging around like Leonard Fournette,
Dalvin Cook, etcetera. I mean all these guys ended up
being dust anyways, but there was at least like these name
brand guys that could have come in and still won a lot of
touches. And this year, I just don't
think like what Josh Kelly's going to sign or Cam Maker's
going to sign, I mean. Last year was the year of the
free agent running back, like, you know all I was Fournette,
Kareem Hunt. There was another.
One Dalvin cook once you go cook.
Yeah, even. Like, even.
Deontay Foreman, I think could come in and and steal like a
good part of this job, but he's in Cleveland.
Now so. Yeah, yeah, I agree.
It's not like anybody that's lurking, really.
The Bears guys, I mean, they've got Swift, Roshan, you know, if
they decide to like, you know, keep Travis Homer and they cut
Khalil Herbert, that would shake things up.
You never know. You never know Travis Homer got
a lot of guaranteed money on that roster people didn't
forget. Let let's move here to maybe
more exciting name Ben Sanat Sano.
I'm not sure how we're. Pronouncing it, I've been saying
Sanet Sonata's it's Yeah, I don't know.
I guess I should know. But this is an A change
situation where until we're sure, let's just say what sounds
coolest. What sounds good and?
It's Sonata. Sonata.
He's up, He's up. I think he's the biggest riser
at tight end, up 75 spots. He got the unexpectedly high
second round draft capital, which is obviously driving this.
Curious Pat, I know you dug into the rookie tight ends.
What is like, what are we getting in this player?
What kind of like tight end archetype are we talking about
and what's his sort of path to success in 2024?
Yeah, he he was an interesting guy because he was sort of like
a mixed-use, like H back type of guy.
He won. He did not win the Mackie Award
in college. He won the the award for best.
The low. Man yeah so he was the the the
nation's best fullback which isn't you know what we want to
hear about a tight end but he throughout the entire pre draft
process was treated as a tight end and he's going to play it
sounds like traditional tight end in an in the NFL.
I thought he had a pretty interesting profile.
He was my tight end two pre draft behind Brock Bowers.
I ended up moving him ahead of Davion Sanders.
I had Sanders ahead for a while but his his pro day was terrible
and I thought that would affect his draft capital.
It did and then tonight went higher than I even thought but
he's he's good after the catch. It is probably like where you're
if you're looking for him to like what's he bringing to the
table as a receiver. He's really good after the
catch. He's also pretty good in the
intermediate area. So you can add kind of
playmaking like kind of downfield, not like super deep
downfield, but you know, 10 plus yards downfield adding Yak on
top of that. And he's really athletic.
He had a 46846823 cone, a 40 inch vertical, 126 inch broad
jump. So you are getting that really,
really high Ras score 9.73 Ras was just a little bit below Theo
Johnson there. But it's become kind of an edge
just to like you know treat the guys who are super athletic just
not the very, the very most athletic guy in the class and
and get excited about them and he he definitely fits that.
So you know, you're you're betting on him to kind of be in
a Zach Urtsy type of role, big receiver kind of guy, They move
around. It's a it's a real battle of the
bags here situation where I've got a lot of Cenet bags and I
plan on continuing to to to draft him but also this the
earth's big board bags are you know they're these two things
are are not aligned So Cenet was recruited as a full back to K
state. He played full back for his
first two years. He switched to tight end, had 31
receptions his first year playing tight end, and then LED
the team in receiving last year. I mean, I I think at tight end,
Pat and I have talked about this a lot.
Like, it's just a weird position where it's very hard to learn.
It's just a hard, it's just a hard, it's hard to learn to
block and run routes. And you know, you have to learn.
It's just very difficult to play.
There's a reason why NFL teams take so many of these guys and
then we never hear from them because it's just hard to be
good at. And it's also why hits at the
position are so weird. Why?
Like you have guys who were drafted in the fifth round who
were just good forever. Because it's just, it's just
kind of random. Now.
This is where I'm having a hard time.
I'm trying to not be so much of A sloppy this year where I'm
just like, whatever I I like. I like Ben Sennett.
So I'm just gonna, I'm just gonna chase him all the way up
the board. I mean, right now it's so
frothy, right? Like.
We does feel a little frothy. Yeah, it's.
Like the kind of immediately get away from us.
Yeah, yeah, I mean this is, this is the effect I think of the
people who are drafting right now.
I saw some thread on it. I'm going to forget who posted
it. But essentially rookie AD PS
like reach their peak around this time of year, maybe early
June and then steadily kind of like drift back towards a more,
you know, steady state later, ADP later.
I think we're getting a little bit of that effect with Sanaa
where it's just guys like us who love seeing the, you know, the
guys who don't have the profile pictures in Underdog and we're
like, oh, I I want that guy because he's a rookie.
Yeah, but it just it, you know, I know we just had this
incredible year of rookie tight ends and he, I think he kind of
fits where where he could have a strong rookie season for sure.
But there is another guy there who does a similar thing.
You got a mobile quarterback. I'm not sure like exactly how
much pass volume we'll have in Washington and he's already
starting to get up where it's like are you taking him over
Hunter Henry who just got a big quarterback upgrade like a
offensive. You know, not being a total
disaster potential upgrade. And there's like not not any
wide receivers other than rookies to compete with.
Like you know Hunter Henry can play tight end.
Like that's not a question. There's actually a question of
whether or not Ben Sennot can even play tight end this season.
Like, I don't mean as opposed to full back but like how how many
snaps does he get. There's a there's a veteran
there like that. He's got to beat out.
It could take a while. So I I want to be in on Sennot.
But. I I guess I I don't know.
I'm struggling to get a. He's already at the 162 in ADP.
You want to take him. You want to take him with
Daniels, like he gets a huge boost.
With Jayden Daniels, you probably want him a little bit.
But I mean, so the chat is kind of making this point, but I
don't think they're making the point that they think they are
in a weird. So they're saying, they're
saying, oh, it's because of all the rookie tight ends doing good
last year, like Laporta finished tight end one.
So now everyone is trying to everyone thinks rookie tight
ends are good, But that was the argument we were making last
year for Laporta, which is just rookie tight ends just don't
play. That's been the issue
historically, is that rookie tight ends just do not get on
the field. It's not that there's some
mystifying magic that hangs over you as a rookie tight end that
says you can't score fantasy points.
It's just that by and large, they don't get on the field.
I mean, the the roadblocks in front of CNET are are they're
old and they're slow, right? I mean, it's Ertz.
And they still might do a ton of.
They still might do a ton of 12 also.
Like, if you think about it, what's their wide, what's their
base personnel like? They're going to want to run
with their quarterback and they don't really have outside of
Mclaurin, any wide receiver, like really deserves to be on
the field. I guess we'll see what happens
with Neppo Baby McCaffrey. Yeah, was was he was around two
years ago, right and. Yeah, he, he said.
Trey McBride This guy played Zach Ertz over Trey McBride.
So it's a little bit of a red flag.
That's a big red flag. Yeah, that's a big red flag.
Well, you know, it's it's I I come out, I win either way.
Either my my Senate bags win in in Best Ball Mania or the
Earth's big board bags win. So it's fine.
I do think like 165, I think it's like trending towards
overpriced. But I still think, I don't know,
I'd probably take him over Kate Alton, just the outside element.
I think it's like Kate Alton goes right next to him there.
I do think what's going to like be ready like especially if you
play in like redraft like a tight end premium league like
get ready for weeks one through 5% to have a 20% route rate and
Zachary to be the starter. I think by the end of the season
we see probably a lot of Senate and that's what we're drafting
for in these contests. But it's not going to be like I
can almost guarantee this is not going to be fun to start the
year. No, I it's a lot.
It's not. We will all be playing $3300
Zach Ertz in Week 2 on DraftKings.
Like 1 billion percent? Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, the other thing is that like, Kate Otten's gonna
run a ton of routes. Like, I actually feel pretty
confident it's I what are you looking for at tight end this
late and the way tight end breaks down?
Like to me, I'm trying to get my tight ends done pretty early.
So I've got a lot of rooms that are like, you know, like Mark
Andrews and like I'm I'm done with with Evan.
I might go Evan Ingram or I might go down.
Scott or Big Ferguson, I don't do that.
That's kind of all the rage right now is the double top ten
tight end. I I don't like doing that.
I I prefer to do you know in a in a tournament where we are are
trying to to win you know half a karaine or I guess .7 fives of a
karaine. We are.
I like to do 1 elite tight end and then one shitter and just
say I can get 6.4 fantasy points from Dawson Knox the same as I
can from Dalton Schultz. You know, like I I I really just
do so Senat. Works pretty well for that.
He works pretty well for that. And sometimes I feel like I if I
don't have the elite, I like AK dot and I like a Juan Johnson.
I like a Hunter Henry as part as like these guys have jobs and
I'm like if Sonata doesn't have a job, which he might not.
It gets a little tougher for me to to lean on and I don't like
if I don't have the the, but I probably should pair more Sanat
with the elite. I I like that.
Sanat is is probably worse when you when it's Luke Musgrave,
Hunter Henry and Ben Sanat because then you that's what I'm
saying yeah but like you just might not get any points and you
you're just like 2 points is your is your score from your
title on that week. Like Kate Auten compared to Ben
Sanat on that. On that team, I'm like, hell,
like I won. Like Juan Johnson, Hunter Henry
and Kate Auten. That feels pretty good.
Throw Sanat in for one of those guys.
I'm like I don't what do I have here?
Yeah, the The thing is, and I'll, I'll end it with this, we
can move on. I do think this year the dynamic
of the late round tight end is a lot worse.
And I heard you Pat, I think make this point where there's
like 8 teams right now where like a tight end isn't even
draftable on the roster, 'cause it's such a gross committee.
Like you can put the Chargers in there, you can put the Panthers
in there. Like there's a bunch of teams
where it's really hard to draft a tight end.
So I do kind of understand, like last year it was like shooting
fish in a barrel. You get Trey McBride, you can
get. Jake Ferguson you could get.
Well, they. Removed.
They removed one of the big wins.
Taysom Hill is not eligible at tight end on on underdog
anymore. Which people might laugh, but
like, I mean, I've been I a guy who famously never took any
stands on players, just took 25% of Taysom every year because it
was just an easy way to get points.
He's still a tight end on DraftKings.
He is correct. He used to be a quarterback on
DraftKings. They're the only site that got
it right. They changed their minds.
I love it. I can't think when everyone else
is zagging man. Yeah.
Are people going to fade Taysom Mill again because they don't
use their trick plays in the preseason or is that?
I I it's it's the The thing about Taysom is he's been the
same super elite best ball pick every single year and no one has
ever learned their lesson. No one has ever changed their
mind about it, despite seeing the direct evidence for it.
Yeah, I think that changed my. Mind I I wasn't originally on
Taysom all the. Way you were.
You were? Yeah, so I so I I have changed
my mind. Good for you, good for you.
Stay flexible. Kamani Vidal, He's up 70 spots
from basically undrafted to pick 170.
Now obviously the story behind this is Chargers were the best
landing spot out there for running back.
Maybe besides the Cowboys. And there's just no one there.
Pat, what? What's your ranking on Vidal?
Is this has this gone too far? I mean, the thing with Vidal is
that it's like, hard to say and so I'm now behind ADP on him.
But has it gone too far? Like probably.
But if it hasn't, if it hasn't, then it hasn't gone nearly far
enough. Is it?
Is it right? If he's ahead of Gus Edwards
coming week one, we're all going to be like, do you?
We didn't want to draft him at RB48.
Why not? Yeah, exactly Like, and what are
you really giving up if you chase Vidal?
I know it's not like fun to chase Vidal right now.
I'll probably just raise him up because what I'm going to do
with Vidal is continually capitulate until it just until
it gets away from us. If it gets away from us like
this and and then I'll then I'll finally say it's insane because
it will become insane. If he's like a seventh round
pick, that I mean that's that's nuts.
But on the way to that and we potentially are headed there.
Why am I going to like sweat the difference of like you really
ought to pay $1.00 for him in the auction draft, not two.
You can't play two, you can't pay $2.00 for him.
That's twice as much. Like who fucking cares.
Just pay $2.00 for him, you know if he if you take him in the
15th, 14th, whatever, like it probably doesn't matter.
He is normally. I don't like taking these like
really kind of dart throwy swings at running back this
early when we don't know the depth chart.
It is possible he's on the practice squad, this guy like,
he could be a complete 0, but. But here's the thing, though.
If he ends up like if we get good news from him all summer, I
mean, this is your dude who's going in the sixth round. 100%,
yes. Yeah.
No, I mean, there is no what do you win when you win here?
We all know what we win. And I think we should therefore
be willing to get a little looser.
I mean, I didn't, I didn't like him that much as a prospect.
I know JJ Zacharyson liked him a lot.
There are some things to like. He's kind of a little bit
plotting. But I mean pretty strong lower
body type of guy. What we want, yeah.
Yeah, yeah. Yeah, Harbaugh, here's plotting
and he said, yeah, tell me more. He kind of a little Gus
Edwardsy, to be honest. I mean, he might be like young
Gus Edwards, which is enough. That's enough.
You want to know. You want to know what a very
good undrafted free agent slash day three comp guy who weighs
215 lbs and is pretty fast. James.
Robinson. James.
Robinson. No.
Isaiah. Isaiah.
Pacheco. He looks more like Robinson.
If you kind of are envisioning him, he's got kind of.
He's a little like I'm I'm not going to, I'm not going to say I
went real deep on, you know, Troy University tape.
I I'm just going to be real about it.
But the the, the the point is so true, which is for Kamani Vidal.
What's the difference if you're taking your zero in the 14th
round or the 18th round when this is the depth chart he's got
to beat out? JK Dobbins is the fucking knight
for Monty Python. It's like I don't even know how
this guy walks. It's, it's.
It's. Insane.
Gus Edwards, you know, Absolutely.
Shout out to Gus Edwards. All those touchdowns last year.
Gus Edwards. When you look up the definition
of replacement level running back, it's just a picture of Gus
Edwards smiling at you. And we've got Elijah Dotson.
Isaiah Spiller and Jarrett Patterson are the only other
guys were even signed on the roster.
At this point, it is the most wide open depth chart in the
NFL. It's like a dynasty team.
I have, I have. I've been managing it very
actively. It has all of those dudes on it.
I mean, I'm positive. I have at least three of those
guys on one team somewhere. If I, if I really.
If I really looked, yeah. Yeah, I'm with you guys like I'm
with you, Pat. Where it usually look if I, if
I, if I'm like, at risk of a dead roster spot, I don't want
it to be like chasing, you know, the Las Vegas Raiders.
Scandal. Yeah, I I want to be.
Chasing the target, starting running back.
No, we're not letting you get away with this.
No, no loudly slaughter, slander on this program.
Not allowed. Fair enough, but yeah, but all.
Fair, fair. That's fair.
Fair. Fair enough.
Yeah. Now you can't.
You can't slander the derogatory, the the 5-10 running
back from UNH. There's no way.
Yeah, you can't slander him. Or brother.
Pickleball. True.
Talking about white guys. All in all in on Nipple Baby
McCaffrey. He's picked 184 now.
Yeah, I don't know. I don't, I don't have any
McCaffrey hot takes, but third round wide receiver in the late
rounds just seems like a good archetype to hit on.
I do think his profile, like his college profile, is kind of
interesting. He came in as a quarterback and
then switched over to wide receiver.
That's like, you know, the Katarius Tony path, which worked
out really well. But yeah, it's kind of
interesting. He was very productive as a wide
receiver once he switched at Rice, which is a bit lower
competition, but I think you can squint and see an interesting
profile. Super high Rascal too, with
McCaffrey. So I like the dark throw at pick
184 and I I do think you get some compared to the other late
wide receivers in his range. I think you get better certainty
he's going to be out on the field by the end of the season,
so I think he's a pretty good pick.
Did you do a? Depth tour.
Start the season. Yeah, yeah.
The depth chart on this has got to be brutal.
Outrageous. I mean, it's it's worse.
It's it's worse than the Patriots.
I mean, it's this. These are the guys who could
theoretically be on the field week one Dax, Milne, Diami
Brown, Olamide Zacchaeus or Jameson Crowder.
Yeah, Diami Brown definitely drafted a ton of Diami Brown,
like three years ago. That's a tough.
Oh, I did. It's.
A tough name to hear. I drafted a punch, but yeah, and
James crowd of 30, by the way. Yeah, Luke Mccaffrey's gonna be
their starting slot receiver probably Week 1.
The other thing is that so OK, no one's blocking him from
getting on the field, but like, is he better than Jahan Dotson
right now? Right now.
He might be. So, I mean, and then we just
talked about it's like aging Zach Gertz, Ben Sinat, Who
knows? Like this guy could be the
secondary weapon in an offense. That's like not bad.
Maybe they're not great, but I I'm kind of into McCaffrey.
I mean he this is kind of like anyway this is one of the best
landing spots that you could have for like just having some
production right away. And what if Jane?
What if Jane Daniels is, like, crazy good?
Like, I mean, I'm, I think Verdict's reel out on that.
But like, what if Jane Daniels is like Stroud Ish level, you
know, as a rookie? Like, just really good right
away. Yeah, and I don't.
I'm not a Daniels guy, personally, but if you're just
trying to get like a good rookie season out of them, even if
you're like very skeptical, and I'm pretty skeptical.
But this is a decent enough spot, getting Cliff Kingsbury,
Cliff Kingsbury, like he's going to run the ball too much.
He's going to be, he's not going to be creative, you know, but
he's gonna design an offense that generally fits what Daniels
does well. He's gonna be OK.
My concern. Who's gonna win in the
horizontal raid? Luke McCaffrey or Terry
Mclaurin? Ask yourself that.
Yes, 2-3 years from now we're gonna be like dude, you know
you'd made Jane Daniels boring like go back to Thailand.
But this, you know this Year 1 Cliff can stay and and coach,
we're we're good with it. Correct.
Yeah, I don't think I don't have much else to say McCaffrey, but
I think there's there's no reason to be out on his
archetype at pick 184. I don't think Samir White, he's
an interesting one. He's up 20 picks now to pick 81.
I think if you were to look at you know, the range of outcomes
Samir White could have had this offseason, this was the best
possible outcome for him. Dylan, Dylan.
Now beside they did not add a ton of competition with Alex
Madison and you know a 7th, 6th round pick at running back, I
think this price adjustment makes sense.
Curious what your thoughts here are.
Davis on Zamir White. I pick 81.
I can't, I can't click him. I mean how like, I mean, sure
could be great. I mean, maybe he just comes back
and just does the exact same thing he was doing at the end of
last year. You know, getting all these
carries, what he played like literally like 98% of the snaps
last month of the season. But I mean the offense is not
going to be very good bad, bad Bowers they have Adams back but
the quarterback play is just going to like suck.
The team is very philosophically committed to running the ball.
And I I to be fair they don't have like a ready made guy who
could you think would start over him.
But it really would not be surprising if it's like 11
carries for Zamir White, 8 carries for Alexander Madison, 2
for Amir Abdullah. Like it's you know just like a
total gross. I I'm just, I'm really not
interested. I I prefer Pollard.
I prefer Romandre, I prefer Jalen Morin.
Probably just hard for me to click him.
Yeah, what about you? I've been taking Zamir White
because I have no interest in taking him.
Once he moves up a little more and I think he will, I he kind
of stalled out like I thought he would rise up even further.
I thought we might be dealing with like sixth round Zoomir
White. And so I was actually being a
little bit aggressive about adding him just with the idea
that I would probably be at 0% in the 6th.
But maybe he's maybe that rise is actually stalled out and
he'll be around pick 80 and I think he's he's OK there.
But if he kind of just chills out here for a while I'll
probably start taking Warren and and Remandre again ahead of him.
Because yeah I I'm generally with Davis in terms of like I
don't like him the most in this range but he's very easy for me
to see people making the bull case on you know you have the he
was a very athletic he was at one point a really highly
regarded prospect entering college suffers some some
injuries and then you know he's he's got a clear path to the
touches. He had that clear path last year
it resulted in a lot of production.
This is a profile that we normally are asked to pay a
fifth round sixth round price tag for.
So I'm just like as long as it's sitting here I I want to make
sure I'm mixing it in and it will allow me to more full fade
it if it rises that's that's my ideal.
Please steam him up. I'm.
I'm good. I got enough.
Yeah, I I think I'm a little bit more optimistic on the talent
profile for Zamir White than you guys.
I guess like zooming way out on him.
He's a guy who was the number one running back in the 2018
recruiting class, you know, got scholarship offers from Alabama,
Clemson, Georgia, basically everyone you know, his college
coach who was Todd Monken, the offensive coordinator, used him
as a primary ball carrier over James Cook pretty consistently.
You know, it was still a committee, but he was seen in
college as having better talent as a rusher than James Cook.
And then you look at his rushing efficiency last year and
everyone wants to say, oh, Jacob's efficiency.
Efficiency was so bad, but it's just because he was on the
Raiders. That team was horrible.
You look at some of your white and he was pretty damn good
across the board. You know, a really high success
rate, second best in the NFL. Yeah, it was fine.
And that's the thing. The team committed, you know,
down the stretch last year he had 23 plus touches in four
straight games. Like they built the whole
identity out of Zamir White and it was effective.
Like they beat the Chiefs. I do think that that's the
team's plan right now is to sort of build the whole ship out of
Zamir White. And I still think the price is
fine. So yeah, he's not a guy I'm
saying I'm going all in on. I'm chasing him up to the 4th or
fifth round, but I do think I'd pick 80.
Like you can squint and see a pretty exciting talent profile
for Zamir White. It's just that it's a little bit
weird, right? Because he was blocked for two
years by Josh Jacob, so he has such little NFL production
through two years. But if he was like, I I guess
the way I'm trying to reframe it is like if Zamir White was
coming into the league as a rookie and we're like oh this
guy, he like out produced James, you know James Cook in college
and is coming to a wide open depth chart.
I think would be pretty excited about him.
Yeah, that's true. Yeah.
No, I I wanna. I wanna be taking him now.
I don't like it. I don't like it that I'm taking
him now, but I am doing it. That's that's where I'm at.
You know the the thing about him is that he's been around for too
long. Like if this was if this was
Year 2 for him. But the fact that it's year
three and people remember him not playing literally at all as
a rookie like that, that's, I mean for me that's that's kind
of what it is. And he also is like the worst
receiving back he he's got his last six years playing or
organized football, college and pro, 32 receptions, 32
receptions his last six years. So where I can, where I could
dig up, I guess I could go back and look at his high school
stats. But I'm gonna guess he didn't
catch the ball very much then, either.
Oh man. It's not great, no.
You're not betting on him for the receiving profile, but.
Yeah, they they got, they got a white lacrosse player for that.
Crystal Love now is up five picks.
He's at the end of the second, or I guess he started at the end
of the second round. Now he's more of a mid second
pick. And it's so funny, 'cause it has
nothing to do with him. It's all the dynamics around
him. It it's got there's no news,
there's nothing about him. It's nothing to do with the
Saints. It's all people deciding.
They like the guys around him less.
Yep. Yeah, that's all it is.
But I don't know like what are your thoughts?
I'm curious both you guys like we now have all the we like
Crystal, Lava, Garrett Wilson and Drake London.
I think you can put them in this cohort of guys who like fantasy
wise talking like raw fantasy points not like any fancy target
share stuff. Like they they kind of have been
relatively useless fantasy assets for both years of their
career. Like.
And now I get I get why in year three we can project like huge
leaps for them. But I I don't know like are we
overthinking it? Taking a lave say over more
proven fantasy producers like Debo Devante Adams.
You'd even throw Jalen Waddle guys like that in there.
Or do you guys think he has that side to deserve this price?
I don't. Really like it?
No one. Here's the thing.
I don't want to have to do this for four months.
I just can't. The the second round sucks, and
we're going to have to elevate dudes who don't deserve it.
That's just how it works. There's no one here where
there's not. I don't think we're going to
find somebody that is deserving of pick 16 or whatever.
And so we're just going to all have to pick a guy and then
we're going to turn on that guy and be like, there's no way
Crystal lava should be. I mean, we're kind of having
that discussion with Drake London, which is kind of Fair
enough with Drake London, but like, tell me what's to put
there then? And you can't do it because
there's no one else. There's no, there's no one.
These are the guys I take over I I'm going to end up in my
rankings. I have waddle in this range.
Now obviously I'm not going to take waddle here every time
because that's not the way to play.
I think that's fair. I think Waddle.
I think Waddle's in this tier. But I think, I think for me,
London, Debo, Adams and Waddle, that's like my tier.
That's like who I that's like who I want to take.
I'm kind of so Sean Segal. We should pull up where he has
Adams because it it was it was it was kind of nuts and he had
me kind of second guessing it before the draft and then with
them taking Bowers which which signals them running the boat.
Sam you're just saying they you they want to build a plane out
as Amir White. That doesn't mean a lot of
passing volume. They're going to run a lot of 12
personnel which may be good for Adams in terms of like yards per
out run and stuff but I I just don't think there'd be that much
volume there. Also you put the the Raiders
pretty high on the list of implosion candidates definitely.
So I and he's older. He doesn't want to be there.
You know he they're going to cut him after the season or trade
him for sure. The cap hits like they save 30
million by getting rid of him. Like he just be like, I'm done,
I'll see. I'm going to go play for someone
else next year, like Adam. Adam scares me in the second
round, like legitimately. Scares me.
That was the that was the thesis last year.
His people like, oh, he's the quarterback to play.
He's going to be terrible. He's not going to want to be out
there. And he was good.
Yeah, he was. But I mean, we're just going to
keep running this back until. I mean, I mean blow up this.
Is a 30 something wide receiver in a horrendous situation?
Like the thing, the thing that nuts out is that is that, I mean
I'm going to keep this alive that he could get traded at any
point. That basically it's just like
he's just like look dude, can we just can we just.
If the Raiders were rational, they would they would trade him.
I mean, they're A-Team going nowhere, just just get what you
can recoup from Devon to. Adams and there are, there are.
They're not gonna think like that for him to go.
There are plenty of spots for him to go.
Yeah, but he's got so it's tough for them to trade him this year.
He's got forty 40 million. It's crazy.
It's crazy salary wise. It's crazy.
It's insane like, and they're not doing it.
Like you're asking Mark Davis to like, yeah, like like do
something really sharp and unconventional like, no, he's
not. He's not gonna do it.
So I I I think like I understand that I'm making that I'm
basically drafting like the three O 2 at pick 14 when I take
Drake London or Crystal Lavay or whatever, but like these are.
Talented, But like, so is everyone else.
Everyone else. So is everyone else.
Same thing. Yes, these are these are
talented wide receiver ones on their team like they they
probably shouldn't go quite this high but we no one has any
question about the talent of Crystal Lavay of Drake London.
These guys are good. Brandon Iuk, right.
They're young they're good. Debo fits.
I I have no no issues with Debo. Jalen Waddle like he's not in a
wide receiver one I guess. But there's, well, the right
way. To think about this is the right
way to think about this is what would their like?
Think about their week 17 stuff. Think about their like these
guys are are insane giga ceilings.
Like if I told you Chris Olave had 32 underdog points in week
17, you'd be like well it's a lot of points but probably
Drake. London won fourteen and two
touchdowns in week 17. You're like definitely like
you're you're drafting guys don't even have to squint.
Debo same same deal. Adams I mean Adams like is the
averaging about 97 fantasy points per game in week 17 the
last two years like. Which is kind of what I tell
myself when I make these Round 2 picks that do not feel good,
where I'm just like, yeah, they're they're, they definitely
are not great bets to be the wide receiver 10 at the end of
the season or to be the 15th highest scoring player, but they
are going to have very good single game ceilings.
Yeah, I agree. Yeah.
The one thing I'll add on on Crystal Ave. is I've been
looking at some data on pre snap motion stuff and I thought this
was interesting. So the new OC for the Saints was
the San Francisco 49ers pass game coordinator last year,
Clint Kubiak. San Francisco led the league
last year in percent of pass plays with a player in motion at
the snap. And dead last on this list was
New Orleans. So.
They're bringing in. Entirely, yeah.
An entirely different offensive philosophy, assuming that that
sort of Shanahan tree carries over and.
It always does. It always does.
The Shanahan stuff always carries.
So yeah, I really would. You know who's dad was?
You know, like this dude. This dude's part of the tree.
He's part of the tree. Yeah.
Yeah, exactly. And I've still like I.
Think I just moved for CG. He'd 20 spots up my rankings
seeing this. I I was excited about that.
That's a good pick. Yeah, we did see last year this
chart. It doesn't have Chris Olave on
it, but I plotted here the wide receivers who ran the most plays
where they were in motion at the snap and it sorted by the
percent of routes in which they were doing that.
So you see Tyree Kill Tutu Atwell, Keenan Allen, he was an
interesting one. I didn't really realize Puka
Nakua Kubrakov. Those guys are on here too.
And mostly what you see is the players yards per yards per
route run when they're in motion at the snap.
A lot of these guys see huge spikes in production.
Puka Nakua is a big one. He actually had five yards per
route run, per SIS data when he was in motion at the snap.
So we do see crazy. It doesn't work for everyone.
Like there's some people on this list that.
Actually, anyone who's watched the CFL understands if you get a
running start, it's way better. They, I mean, they literally
call it, yeah, they call it Cheat Motion.
They, that's what. Yeah, they call it like
cheating. Yeah.
So if we get Shaheed and Olave, I mean again this chart, they
were the least creative offense last year.
Doing that with I forget who was OC.
What if What if Taysom is the Cheat motion guy?
Have you thought about it? Davis I don't think like they
they can't handle, they can't handle Taysom Hills the cheat.
What would happen? What would happen to the FPC if
quarterback eligible Taysom Hill was the Cheat Motion guy?
What if, because they use enough cheap motion, they change him
back to tight end after the season?
No, they they do it. It's it's Week 3 and they
decide, you know what they changed His positional
designation, tight end, believe it or not.
Also, another thing about this chart that's crazy is New
England was actually high up in this their 4th and they still
sucked. I mean, the Patriots were dead
last point scored last year, and they were cheating.
That's because they were using, they were using Juju on the
cheat motion. Yeah, yeah, it doesn't.
It doesn't work. Devante Parker.
You can get Devante Parker running at the snap.
It doesn't help him get up to any speed at all actually.
Lowers his yards per hour. Yeah, he just gets tired.
He just kind of gets gas out there.
He. Has to run his route.
Yeah, I I do think there's a lot of interesting stuff with this,
but like the Miami ones, like 70% that that helped me
understand a little bit more. Like even in healthy games for
Tyreke and Jalen Waddle, when they're only running like 80% of
the routes, it's 'cause like on half of Tyreke's plays he's
fucking like sprinting across the formation like multiple
times before the snap, like. It's also why his yards per
route, his yards per route run numbers are fake.
Well, yeah, I mean, I guess they're fake, but they're like,
potentially sustainable. So sure.
Sure, yeah. But they're they're they are
fake. I mean they, I think it is
sustainable, but they are fake. But it's like, I mean, to the
point of them being fake, we're kind of these, these two
offenses are sort of shifting things towards almost the
running back position and sort of like how schemed up a touch
can be. You know, for a wide receiver,
like if you've got Tyreek in motion, he's running.
The whole play is designed to get him the ball.
And he's got this big edge on his defender, 'cause he got to,
you know, he got to run across the formation.
And they've now figured out ways.
McDaniel, you know, adjusted it so that he's doing a quicker
version of this so that the the defense can't key on it.
Why is it important that the defense doesn't key on it,
'cause the ball's going to Tyriq, the ball's going to
Tyriq, and they don't want them to be able to shut down that
play. It's like kind of taking that
extended hand off idea another step further, which you know the
target per route run. It would be interesting to see
the target per route run on these types of routes because
it's got to be super high. The whole point is to get the
guy doing this the ball. Exactly.
Yeah, I'm gonna. I'm working on an article on all
this stuff. Probably won't be out for a
little while, but I do think that spikes as well.
Last thing on a lava here. He's not on this chart, but he
ran just 35 routes in motion last year at the snap.
Again, New Orleans was like in the dark ages in terms of
implementing the stuff, but on those 35 routes, he had nearly 6
yards per route run. So that suggests obviously
really small sample that suggests I think he's quite
effective on this type of play. I mean, it makes sense.
He's a smaller guy really fast. It would make sense that it'd
fit into the archetype of player where this would be a big
benefit to him, that that's like, if you need to sell
yourself on a sealing case for crystal lava, it's like just a
revolutionized offense in terms of what type of concepts they're
using under a better offensive coordinator.
And I I think that's certainly possible in New Orleans.
Let's get to the fallers here. Kyron Williams.
Yeah. We can't talk to Tyron Tracy.
We can talk to. Tyron the risers.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
We can talk to Tyron Tracy. This is your guy who's still a
dollar. This is the dude who's still a
dollar. And and if you're if you're
everyone else is hammering Vidal who I you can still take him as
I just said so but mix mix in Tyron Tracy because I could see
the steam on him getting a little eye control.
I mean he plays special teams he's going to be active you know
the the Isaiah Pacheco thesis that we had a couple years back
he's in play here Devin Singletary is extremely weak
starter. He catches passes he's athletic.
He's versatile. He's big.
Like, you're not huge, but he's like 209, so he's not like a
little, you know, 181 LB Scat back.
Like he could actually be the lead back for the Giants down
the stretch. Draft some Tyrone Tracy.
Aren't you worried about Eric Gray?
Favorite. No, I'm not worried about Eric
Gray. Once I saw once I saw Josh
Norris, Comp Tyrone Tracy to David Johnson, it it was like it
was a real come to Jesus moment for me.
What was? I'm just, I'm so pissed they
didn't have Tyrone Tracy in the pre draft stuff.
I still can't get over that. Well, we know this is an edge.
Michael Wilson was. It was an edge last year.
It wasn't in the pre draft stuff.
Yeah, that's true. Yeah, probably.
I probably did help his ADP be better now, yeah?
Or lower. Josh Norris comped Tyrone Tracy
to David Johnson. So I was just like, wow.
I mean, he Wow. I mean, Johnson had 20 lbs on
Tracy, but. Correct.
Sure, you know, but stylistically?
Stylistically, yeah. Guy who guy's really good at
running routes, all that. Stuff.
He was like truly a converted receiver.
Like when you watch his highlights and stuff, he's like,
they don't hand the ball off to the running back and then the
running back like runs out of frame.
You're like, what's going on and what's going on?
Oh shit. Yeah, Tyler Tracy's down there
playing receiver. Just a legitimate any player
who's converted anything. I am just a Slappy 4 like it.
It just sounds so. Much cooler to me.
It's just it's just so much cooler.
This quarterback converted to wide receiver in say no man I I
just yeah immediately. Running back converted to wide
receiver. Wide receiver converted to
running back. Former linebacker Let's play in
running back. Oh my God doesn't.
Matter. That's ADP.
We got to start a A a league where you can only play players
who converted from other positions tight in one.
Ryan Danhill gets drafted as the quarterback one.
Yeah, sign, Yeah. Ryan, even though he doesn't
play, he's still he's got to draft him.
What if he plays? You got to draft him.
It's the first round pick, Kyron Williams.
He's an interesting one. Or Davis.
Did you have final thoughts on Tyrone Tracy?
No, I mean, I just, I think he's a very good example of the, if
you like him, draft him now, even if he might be a zero,
because once there's any kind of steam behind him at all, people
don't like Devon Singletary. So he just is going to go way
up. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah. And look, I mean, the reason we
wouldn't be drafting him is because, like, he might not even
be the RB2, but the special team stuff in the like, total lack of
anything on this depth chart. I mean, he he's.
Breeded Not even on the team anymore.
Yeah. I mean this, yeah, this team
was, they don't have any faith in Eric Gray.
I mean, they're playing Matt Breeda pretty consistently over
him last year. Yeah, I think it's, I think it's
Tracy's job to lose and he's one of the, he's one of the
ambiguous RB twos if you want to call him that, that I'm
certainly willing to draft right now.
I think it's, I think it's fine. Kyron Williams down 7 spots.
This is obviously the reaction to the Blake quorum draft.
Curious what you guys think. What do you guys think?
I think this conversation starts with like, what do we think
about the concept of, like, Sean McVeigh being ideologically
committed to workhorse backs like.
How? How definitely do you guys?
Think that is. He definitely is.
I I feel like 97% confident. That is his preference.
I so I do think that compared to the average coach, Sean McVeigh
is more likely to use a workhorse.
I do think I I dug into their running back stuff from 2020 to
2022. Obviously before that, Todd
Gurley was a pretty big workhorse in that offense.
But in 2020 it was mostly a three-way committee of
Henderson, Malcolm Brown and Akers.
Now, by the playoffs, the NFL playoffs, Akers became the
worst. Sam, if you go back and look
like he would like start different guys and try and
remember in 2022 he benched. Was it Henderson or Akers for
Ronnie Rivers? They were like, OK, we're going
to go with Ronnie Rivers in this game.
And then Ronnie Rivers was awful.
It's like he definitely, he definitely prefers to have a
guy. Then he just gets sick of the
guy. Yeah, Acres is actually a good
example of him doing this. That season when when Acres
became the guy, they installed Acres, we had.
Acres was a a stand for us in the FFPC playoff challenge,
'cause I was like, this is they're gonna like try to ride
Acres. Basically.
If they win, it's probably because they like ride Acres,
which is what happened. They beat the Seahawks with
Acres as a workhorse. He looked really good as as a
rookie. Then he tore his his Achilles.
So that to me kind of goes as part of the thesis that that he
like, wanted Akers to be what Kyron is now.
I think that helps Kyron a little bit.
It is concerning that Blake Korum is basically just a Kyron
clone it and it creates downside for Kyron.
What if Blake Korum gets a chance because Kyron gets banged
up, He's undersized, he comes in, he's doing awesome.
Does Kyron get his job back? He he might not.
He might not. Kyron's good.
I don't know that he's amazing. It just kind of creates some.
It creates like devastating downside risk.
That's it's like I think he's probably, I think he's probably
a good pick like he's way better like he's better than the
average pick in the second round to pay off his odds.
But the down the downside risk is you just straight up drafted
a handcuff in the second round. Just like straight up drafted a
guy the team does not is not going to play like.
And maybe that's only like 5%, but it's it's it's 100% higher
than 0 legendary downside. Legendary Legendary Downside can
be a fun article. What is it?
What am I describing? Legendary downside?
Like what Kyron's doing in his free time?
Like on the bench. Like in Week 3, Kyron has a
conversation about he's not fucking on the field.
If there, yeah. If there's a guy in the second
round where like in two years we like do a remember this guy's
conversation and Kyra Williams is like already.
I remember this guy like like or or it's like the Kenyan Drake
thing. Like remember that year we all
had collective delusion Kenyan Drake was like the 15th overall
pick like that. Again, I agree with you guys
that that's not a likely outcome, but like none of the
wide receivers going near him or even like you can say Barkley is
a bad pick, but he does not have nearly the downside that like
Barkley's not losing his job to Tyrone Tracy or whatever, right?
Like. I have Kyron well behind Barkley
now. Yeah.
The year that Cam Akers tore his Achilles in the preseason, it
was really early on, but he opened up, I believe.
I think it was that the best ball mania.
One year it might have been better.
Too. Yeah, it might.
It you think it was been best Ball Mania 2.
He was a 12 turn pick before he tore his Achilles like like
we've already. That's right, we've already.
Done this? Yeah, that's a.
Great point. I'm not saying I'm like, oh, I
can't wait to fade Kyren. Like I don't like, I don't want
to. I don't want that to be the
brand. But I don't really find myself
clicking him. At all.
The last thing is. I took him before the draft, but
third round pick on a guy who's like exactly the same as him.
Yeah. When they they do the press
conference and he's like so you know that guy Kyron it's he's
kind of like he's that it's like that it's.
Literally, the press conference, it's like we basically saw
Kyron, which we really liked, like, Oh no.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The last thing I'll say on Kyron
is go back through. I I do agree with you guys again
that like McVeigh is, I do think he prefers to work horseback.
Go go through the past three years, there were a lot more
games than I remember of like Malcolm Brown, 40% snaps, Daryl
Henderson 40% snaps, someone else 20%, like there's a lot of
that in there. He hated.
He's not insane like he he hated Daryl Henderson and had to play
him for the position that. Exactly.
But I'm saying if he if he equally likes Blake Horan and
Kyron Williams, I don't think like a split here is off the
table. Sure, yeah.
It's not completely off the table.
No, but he would. I think he feels more
comfortable with having a guy out there, yeah.
It is two straight years where Kyron Williams hasn't been able
to stay on the he was on IR both years in his league, in the
league so far. I mean, maybe that factors into
it a little bit. A smaller guy, but anyways.
He's Colonel guy. Like, you know, like if the
health is a reason where teams are like, OK, you just can't
stay on the field. I don't know.
But look at Blake. Blake stays on the field all the
time. We love Blake looking like
that's. It's like the the Elijah
Mitchell thing. In SF it's.
Not his fault, yeah, but that's, I mean that's that we, we know
that stuff like that happens. Shout out, shout out to to
episode 100 of this guy's really this 49ers handcuff running
back? You want that we're gonna do
with Isaac Girendo this year when it's just gonna be Elijah
Mitchell again? It's gonna be Elijah Mitchell
again. Yeah, Tyrion, Davis, Bryce.
Oh God. Trey Serman.
Isaac Renda was the the Joe Williams Memorial pick in the
fourth round. San Francisco, They always have
to draft running back in the third or fourth round that they
never intend to give a. Kid.
Even Kyle Shanahan's joking about it.
Did you see that little? Clip Yeah, he's like, sometimes
we draft 1/3 on running back and we hate him.
We send him to Siberia. He never sees the field.
Cody Schrader is a better running back than the 100%.
They drafted, that's what he said.
He goes, we're pilot, take a running back in the third round,
He won't work out. Then we'll draft a guy in the
sixth round. He's the real one.
And then they did it, Cody. Schrader is legit like like so
much more like Guerrendo, like barely could play at like a a
Louisville and Guerrendo was like led the SEC in rushing or
Schrader led the SEC. Yeah, Schrader, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah. All right.
Rasheed Rice, I'm kind of. I'm kind of exhausted by this
conversation already this long. Season and it's all in.
We don't need to do it anymore. All in.
I'm also. All in, yeah.
All right, draft. I'm almost in the. 6th round
guys. Yeah, just do it.
Yeah, I think again, no one knows anything.
I think what we're getting is like a four, five game
suspension. Then at this price he's fine and
there's definitely ways. He just has like a two or
three-game suspension too, at which point he's a pretty big
discount, so. Yeah, the NFL is going to have
to prove to me that they're willing to suspend Rashi Rice
for half a season. I just, it's not at the way the
NFL has typically handled this type of stuff.
And I know it's possible it's it's not fully priced in if it
is half. Every pick he gets cheaper means
it matters less that he misses games at the beginning of the
season if he is playing at the end of the season.
Yeah, which he will be. Though I I guess to not
completely you know just go by this conversation what do you I
I was trying to think of reasons to like be out on rice.
What do you think of the possibility that like say say it
is a six game suspension. That seems like close to worst
case right they have six weeks of Mahomes building rapport with
Xavier Worthy Marquis Brown. I do think there are still
legitimate questions of, like how complete of a wide receiver
Rashi Rice is. And you could, you could make
the argument that, like, he was just kind of the best of a bunch
of terrible options last year, right?
You know, MVS, Sky, Morgadarius, Tony.
Is there anything to that where you think he could lose his
rhythm and the offence if he's suspended?
You know, maybe not being used in the preseason, all that stuff
at the end of the season. So here's the downside.
So here's the upside case for rice is that but it it sort of
flips into the downside case. But one of the things that that
I like about Rice is that he didn't have all that high of a
first read target rate last year.
The offense wasn't really designed to go through him.
Even as he got on the field and had a really high targets per
outrun, he still wasn't seeing a super high first read target
rate. A lot of the he.
Was the bailout guy? He was the bailout guy.
A lot of the targets that he ended up getting, someone else
didn't get open and Rice found him, found spots where Mahomes
was able to to find him. And I think this is part of the
reason why his his adot was so low is that he was you know
finding a spot fairly shallow where Pat Mahomes could get him
the ball on some of these later reads in the progression.
That is pretty appealing to me though when you're going OK,
this is a rookie. He was highly efficient.
He had a connection with his quarterback.
He wasn't even getting that money first reads.
What's the what's probably the one of the main things driving
second year breakouts, you know from a high level across the
league. It's the fact they install more
place for these guys in year two and.
And they're just a bunch of anti, fragile ways that he
benefits. Like maybe worthy bus.
Maybe Travis Kelsey really is like, just like can't get it
going in the regular season. Like maybe organizationally they
know they can count on him for the playoffs, but there's just
no reason to target him in the regular season.
Maybe Hollywood. I mean, look at some of the wide
receiver contracts out there. Like DJ Shark just signed a
contract that's basically the same as Hollywood Browns.
Like maybe Hollywood just like is just dust.
Like, they're just. And I'm not saying any of these
things is. I'm not saying any of these
things are true, but they're all within the realm of possibility.
All that being said, I don't believe any of them.
I mean, I'm just going to be, I'm just going to be taking a
shit ton of this guy. I'm taking Worthy, I'm taking
Hollywood, I'm taking Kelsey, I'm taking Pacheco, I'm taking
Clyde. My.
Unbiased thanks right here. No, I I'm 100.
For the show you said you took Kadarius, Tony.
I took Kadarius, Tony in a draft today.
I like the the the Chiefs are. The Chiefs are going to score 28
points a game again and you are going to want their players in
fantasy football. Well here's here's the so I made
the the upside case, right. He didn't get that many first
retards. He had a shallow 8 up.
He's kind of just a bailout guy. But now year two, he'll get the
first retard. Well, if he suspended for half
the season, are they going to install that many more plays for
them? They just signed Worthy.
They just signed Marcus Brown. So now you end up in a situation
where they're actually unrealing.
It. Yeah, they they they got to get
their their scrum plays in there, you know so.
Shout out Andy Reid. I'm so bored of winning the
Super Bowl, I got to see if I can turn a rugby player into a
guy who could score 5 touchdowns in the end.
That's where we're laughing. I was on Pete's pod this
morning. We were laughing.
He's going to have to install the scrum, the scrum and get Zam
at the ball. So anyway, so that's where you
end up like, OK, now he's not the 1st St. on these plays, but
Worthy is getting open. Hollywood is getting open.
You know those guys are helping Kelsey get open more and they
he's just not getting those like second, third, read targets
because someone else is getting open on the 1st St.
And he he just kind of falls down the target pecking order
pretty easily because the offense isn't really designed to
go through him. It never was.
We're kind of betting on that to.
Change. I know what happened.
I think, I think what happened with him last year was that
Kelsey was way more injured than they ever let on and they
basically were just like, dude, we just got to have someone who
can get like 7 yards, you know? And and Bryce was more like for
like a stock portfolio of his career.
I like would not be super if none of the suspension stuff
happened. I would not be like buying Rice
in Dynasty right now now because people are concerned about a
suspension. I mean Rice is an amazing buy in
Dynasty right now because like the upside cases is still there.
But getting him at like wide receiver 40, just like, oh, it's
like Jackson Smith and Jigba's spot like come on like he just
it's just a good pick. It's just a good pick.
Yeah, because then like some of the downside scenarios you guys
are talking about like oh, what if like Marquis Brown and Worthy
are good and they're designing place for them.
Well, at some level it's like, good 'cause then the Chiefs
offense is like. Probably good again.
Right. They're progressing a lot and
scoring, yeah, Yeah. Exactly.
Like Mahomes had an all time low in passing yardage last year
relative to the past. You know four years before that.
Like we don't want a repeat of the Chiefs experience last year
necessarily if we're Hershey Rice drafter like we want the.
Offense to be good. You don't want that.
You you like, definitely do not want that.
You you want there to be like 11 touchdown seasons for him.
You know what you're not worried about routes.
This dude's going to come out and run all the routes.
Sky more Kataris Tony like, no, no, no.
These dudes, they're going to have half the season without
Rice means half the season with sky more.
They're going to be ready to have Rice back on the.
Yeah, they're going to be like buddy, thank you.
Thank. You.
OK, I I do want to address one thing and then I'm going to go
kick out for 10 minutes and come back.
Chad is making, I think, a pretty valid point that people
said this was going to happen with Kamara.
It didn't end up happening, but what if the risk comes at the
back half of the season? What if the NFL, just for
whatever decides if the suspension comes in week 131415
and 16, just for whatever? I mean, it's impossible to we.
Have to bet we have to make bets in uncertain environments.
In the NFL doing an extremely long suspension the back half of
the season would be like double unprecedented and correct.
The fact that the chats, even floating that I think gives you
a sign of like where the market's head is at on this and
it's not fully rational. I mean, I'm not saying that's
impossible, but like, if no one floated it and I was the only
one to think about it, I'd be more nervous than.
If and you know what all your entries are going to lose
anyways, your entries are likely to lose anyway, so.
A lot of it matters. You're yeah, you lose money.
You there's a real What do you win when you win in the with
Rice in the 6th. I mean this.
And normally I always lose these.
I always lose the What do you win when you win, 'cause I'm so
scared of losing, but because I'm a biased Homer, this is one
spot where I can actually do the right thing.
It's like kind of incredible for me, you know?
It's like this is one spot where I actually get to do the
mathematically correct thing, not because I'm mathematically
correct, but because I'm just a giant Homer.
That's. Amazing.
It's beautiful. You'd love to see it.
All right. I'll see you guys in 10 minutes.
Later all. Right.
So we'll Davis is gonna head out to go on TV and hopefully not
tell people that he's drafting Cadarius Tony.
Like, yeah. That stays here.
OK, this is fuck.
I hope you didn't see that. OK, I something something
happened in the slides that are messed up.
Let me just read these out to you for Devon, a chain.
So again, we're doing 22 stats and a lie.
I'm going to see 3 facts about Devon a chain, a chain I guess.
And Pat's going to say which one is the lie.
So here we go. First fact, Devon, a chain yards
per carry in 2023 was higher than Michael Vick's yards per
carry through his six seasons in Atlanta.
So prime Michael Vick, you know, toss out the Steelers Jets
years. Fact two is the Dolphins RB3
through RB6. Last year this was Jeff Wilson.
Chris Brooks Sivan opmed Darrington.
Evans had more carries than Devon A chain in 2023
cumulatively. And then the third fact is
Derrick Henry, Zeke Elliott and Josh Jacobs, all at higher yards
for route run than a chain did in 2023.
Name of the three again is a Derrick Henry.
Derrick Henry, Zeke Elliott and Josh Jacobs all at higher yards
per route run than a chain in 2023.
And this is regular season plus the playoff game.
So that impacts I guess. And one of these is is not true,
right? I have to pick one.
One of these is a lie. So the last one I think is real
cause Derrick Henry's had weirdly high yards per out run.
Josh Jacobs, The only thing he was decently efficient at last
year was yards per out run, and Zeke Elliott had a weirdly high
yards per hour, 'cause they used him as a little pass dump off
guy. So that one's real.
The yards per carry I think is probably also real, 'cause his
yards per carry was insane. So I'll say the the carries one
is a lie. Yep, nailed it.
Yeah, his yards for outrun was just insane.
I was. I was shocked by this because
you think of rushing quarterbacks, yards for carry
just being ridiculous. And you know Mike Prime, Michael
Vick is the top person, I think, of what I think of prime rushing
quarterbacks. Itching was even better than
that, which is just insane. I mean, he was having wide
receiver stat lines with carries last year, like 8 carries for
100 yards. Just stuff that was absolutely
absurd. You were right that the second
one was a lie. A chain didn't have many touches
last year. Still had more than all those
other guys, though. It was kind of closer than I
thought, I guess not close enough to trip you up.
And then the the final thing. Well, I thought I Ahmed also, I
remember like just being out there a lot for like passing
downs and stuff. Yeah, a lot of empty snaps.
For him, a lot of empty snaps. Yeah, the last one I think is
like interesting to talk about when we talk about a chain's ADP
now is I was a little surprised about his receiving efficiency.
I guess just in my head I was like oh a chain was an awesome
receiver last year. He's going to get a lot of work
in the passing game. It it it was a bit of a mixed
bag. But again, running backyards for
outrun can fluctuate a ton season to season.
I would be pretty surprised if a chain didn't like, come back
next year and have a pretty good number here, but curious what
your thoughts are on his like, receiving profile.
Is that like a red flag to you at all in where he's going in
the second round of drafts? Because I know for your
legendary upside stuff, you're really looking at receptions for
running backs to hit that legendary upside ceiling.
Yeah, he I don't think he's like inefficient to the point where
it would be a red flag, but it's probably not how he gets there.
You're basically betting on him to be hyper efficient as a
rusher, score a bunch of touchdowns, have the offense be
really good and then get used. You know, somewhat versatile as
you know some some receiving ability.
It's interesting like this system is not the one that's
going to produce really high yards per hour run.
And I think you know we can use Christian McCaffrey as an
example of that. Where McCaffrey he had in, let's
see in Carolina as a second year.
So this one he broke out 1.77 yards per outrun 1.76 in 2019,
1.80 in 2022.91 in 2021. Then he gets traded to the
49ers, drops 1.67. He's actually coming off his
lowest career yards per outrun of 1.36.
I think it's like to me it's like a maybe running back yards
per out run. I think we always kind of want
to be like having sort of buckets of like if you're like
at 0.5 like you're not doing shit if you're like from point
0.5 to one like don't love that anywhere from like 1:00 to like
1 1/2 you're you have some, you're doing some interesting
stuff maybe you're not like Prime McCaffrey, Prime Kamara,
anything over like 11.5 you're basically a star.
But it is more like, it's kind of like I think he's going to
have a chance for like explosiveness in the receiving
game. I don't think this offense is
going to be looking to kind of drop back, see what's there,
dump it off to the running back in a way where you might see
like prime Brady kind of or you know, ladder have a career
Brady. But you know, like that type of
like breeze like that. That's not really what this
offense wants to be. And I don't think we get that
with HN, but I think super explosive player.
This yards for Outrun does indicate that he has, I think,
some versatility to be used in the receiving game, trying to
get him upfield as quickly as possible.
Yeah, and I I do think just like sharper offensive coordinators
these days are not trying to design too much for running
backs in the passing game. I think that's why you see a
chain with a lower yards for outrun years because when
they're passing, they're scheming up Tyree Kill and Jalen
Waddle and I don't think it's necessarily Tua's strength like
you know, like you would see with Brady with Breeze.
Those guys were really skilled at, you know, if the first read,
second read's not there, you know, check it down to the
running back. I don't think, you know Tua's
processing is necessarily a strength.
So I think that explains why the number here is not that high for
a chain. But yeah, I agree with you like
ultimately like if he catches one screen and goes 80 yards to
the house, which we know he can do that yards for out run number
is going way up, so. He also he rated pretty well in
ESP, NS receiver rating score of 52 there Bruce Hall was at 57.
It's not amazing but you know he was pretty solid in like that
metric. So I think he I'm looking at,
I'm looking for him to be a solid receiver then tackle on
extremely efficient rushing and that's that's how he gets there.
As far as like the legendary upside goes, he actually of all
the running backs ranks second to McCaffrey this year.
And the Screener that I that I do, Bruce Hall is third, Bijan
is 4th. So he has.
Now with HN we have to kind of tack on OK, but like what does
that actually look like? Can he can he get the workload
needed over the full season to like deliver one of these truly
legendary seasons? Probably not.
But can he do it for a couple weeks or you know, handful of
weeks like 100%? He can, we know we can.
And that's that's where I think in Best Ball.
He really is a like such a strong pick 'cause he has access
to these, like these legendary Spike weeks because of the
rushing, inefficiency plus receiving versatility.
Yeah, yeah. I'm with you and I agree.
I'm in on HN this year. I am curious, like how low the
price will end up getting on him.
I don't think it's gonna go past the third round.
So at that point, I don't think it really matters if you draft
him, you know, at pick 18, pick 22, pick 26, it's all, you know,
kind of the same. As long as he's not going all
the way around to the next, I don't think so.
Yeah, I'd be shocked. He's the type of dude.
I don't think there's like a Breeze Hall for me this year
where I'm just gonna like hammer a guy in the first five rounds.
If there is, it would be a Chan falling to the 3-4 turn.
If he was available at the 3-4 turn, I would have 30 plus
percent. I mean he's just it's just
really hard for me to imagine how you don't take the the big
upside. I mean at that point he can do
you know what what ETN did last year and be a pretty nice hit if
he if he delivers what he did, you know a little plus a little
bit more consistency. I mean it's kind of it's kind of
Bruce Hall from last year like you don't in the fourth round,
in the early fourth round you don't even we no longer need the
legendary upside you know a really strong season with a
sprinkling of Spike weeks becomes a a big hit there for
us. So man, I would love if you fell
to the late 3rd even though I'm going to be loading up in the in
the late 2nd and early 3rd. It's with the understanding that
if he were to fall to the 3-4 turn, I wouldn't be like, oh
God, I have all these teams. No, I've got teams that are
structured differently with a Chan.
They've got different groups of players.
Yeah, I paid more than people later on will pay, but these are
going to be different types of teams.
So I'm going to have a Chan with kind of the whole group.
I don't want to do that with every player, but if I think a A
guy can be the guy, that's pretty interesting and I think I
think he can be the guy, honestly.
Yeah, he showed that workhorse ability in in college.
I think that was kind of an underrated part of his profile,
honestly. Like, I think the main concern
with people with HN this year is the volume stuff.
For me, my bigger concern, if I was to be out on him, it
wouldn't be like the volume projection stuff.
It would just be like, we're in what year year two in a row of
the Dolphins just completely collapsing down the stretch.
I mean last year their their end of the season on offense was
like pathetic. That game against the Chiefs was
so, so ugly. I I do think there are some
concerns like I think McDaniel is an awesome OC.
He's gotten the most out of Tua. But I I do think like maybe
there is a ceiling there that like halfway through the season
it seems like these defenses have figured out and made
adjustments against the Dolphins offense.
Because yeah, it's I don't know if it's the weather.
I don't know if it's a defensive adjustments, but they've really
cratered down the stretch two years in a row.
So that would be my concern with Miami more broadly more so than
like the 8 chain volume stuff? They're definitely doing some
gimmicky stuff and people figure it out a little bit, so I that
that feels fair. Yeah, that's derogatory.
That's fair. Is that derogatory that's fair
or? What are we?
What are we doing? We're we're.
I I leave. Derogatory.
I leave for 10 minutes and you guys start fighting.
Devon, AJ. No, I just said I would.
I would be taking the hell out of him in the 3-4 turn.
Yeah, I'm just taking him now because.
I'm taking him now too. I just think of the guy who
demonstrably has already scored 40 points in a game multiple
times. I think that would be a guy.
I would like to advance to the the the Week 17 final
personally. No, I I my full take was that
I'm taking him in the late 2nd now.
I'll take him in the early third once.
I kind of know for a fact I'm getting him there every time.
If he drops the late 3rd, I'm gonna take him.
I'm gonna do the same thing. I'm gonna take him in the early
3rd. If you push him to the early 4th
to the point I know he's coming back, then I'll take him there.
I'm gonna ride it. I'm gonna ride it down.
If it goes that far 'cause I. You know what we need he.
Should be in the late 2nd. I think he should be in the late
2nd. We need a Jalen Wright drum
beat, steady drum beat. You know, a a a Darwin Thompson
esque drum beat for the entirety of the of training camp And then
week pre, season week 1, Skylar Thompson's in their quarterback
hands off to Jalen Wright 67 yard touchdown, just like
blazing down the field. And then we have to resist the
urge to also draft Jalen Wright. Yeah, we'll definitely do that.
Yeah, we definitely won't have 23%, Jalen, right after that.
I was thinking about this the other day.
That 53 yard Kyle Pitts reception in the preseason
against The Jets has probably lost me more money than any
other individual NFL play of all time, ever.
Yeah, that in the the the Calvin Ridley camp running around Sex
and Zay Jones. That one lost me thousands last
year. Jericho McKinnon kneeling on the
1 yard line in the Super Bowl. Pretty high up there.
That's Pat, That one. Literally.
Lost you? That's quantifiable.
Mahomes Mahomes on the option play to Damian Williams just
running into the end zone instead of pitching it to
Damian, not giving him his third touchdown.
So the Super Bowl MVP? Yeah, remember the Emir Abdullah
pre season Juke? Oh my God, yes, Yes, I do.
I mean, that's we're showing our age there a little bit,
remembering when Emir Abdullah was like the young, fun rookie
running back. There's a by the way, you want
to talk about guys who lost money the lost me money.
The Bishop Sankey he there's a play in his in his college
highlight. I would love to.
I'd love to bring up the just bombs for Bishop Sankey.
If that's still up. There's a play where he jukes a
dude in college and this guy like get he's done and he runs
all the way to the house. But the problem is when you zoom
out on the play it's like a fourth and like half an inch and
so the guy's like just trying to stop the conversion.
And Sankey, there's like no safeties.
Like no one. So he just makes a guy miss
who's trying to prevent a short yardage game and he takes it to
the house. It's the only way.
It's actually the only way he could generate explosive plays,
as it turns out. Anyway, that one lost me a lot
of money. God Bishop sank.
He he was an all time bad fantasy pick.
Oh, so bad. Probably probably the first
player, whoever demonstrated to me the ability that I could be
wrong about something, Bishop sank.
He was one of the first times I was ever like not only can I be
wrong, but I can be really wrong in sort of unpredictable ways.
Really wrong. Yeah, that one.
Davis. You should repurpose.
That just bombs Bishop Sankey. Highlight and post it on
Twitter. Oh.
My God, yes, the people need. It the mere Doula Juke is
actually the one people need, 'cause it's so good, it it will,
it will make you think that he should have been a star in the
NFL. I mean still, still couldn't.
I mean, you know, good passing down back.
Here I'm gonna pull, I'm gonna send it in the private.
We actually should share this. OK, let me pull it up.
Remember when we were like, we're gonna keep ADP chasing on
the rails this year? And then Episode 2 I'm.
Sharing episode 2. 2015 Pre Season Clips.
It's a good job. Oh, Chad had a good one.
Remember when Daniel Jones had a breakaway 50 yard touchdown
rotten and just tripped over his own feet?
Oh yeah, that one was so good. Nice work, Chad.
Wait. All right.
Can you guys see this now? No, no, it's still we still see
largest fallers. Yeah.
Oh, shit. OK, hold on.
Oh yeah, there we go. Yeah.
Now I'm not, we're not working with Pete here.
Here we go. OK, At this full screen, all
right. Tamir Abdullah. 2015.
Back behind him and gets the call.
Oh my God. Is it there?
Look at this. He is.
Can't take it to the house though.
Red flag in. Retrospect Not great that he
gets caught from behind. There's that four 6 speed
showing up. There was a was there a JSN play
like that from the preseason last year?
It was like, oh, he made a big play, but then just got caught
from behind so easily that that's the best part of the
preseason is that everyone sees whatever bias you had in the
player. If they make a big play, it's
like, oh, 40 yards, but too slow to take to the house.
Like, this guy sucks. Well, all right, we're back on
the rails. Romaninze he he did.
In fact, suck. Roman Dunesay down 20 spots this
This just seems like a good adjustment.
That's. Fair.
That's fair. Yeah.
It's just fair. It's just fair that's off to
the. Now, weirdly, there's an impact
where I could see him going back up quite a bit, which is if
Caleb Williams starts to just get like, the buzz is just
crazy, you know, like NFL Network is just like
breathlessly reporting on Bears practices.
You know like he the stuff we're seeing is great if you guys only
knew how locked in he you know where where it just sort of
rises all the bears up. Yeah, people want to stack the
Bears and I've gotten a doonsay. I mean, I got them in on the in
the seventh in DraftKings, which it's a different, different land
over there. You can get them in the sixth
though, and Underdog and I will sometimes use that as a back
door stack with Caleb. It's actually made me want to
draft like a little more Keenan in the 5th to see if I can get
you know the the Keena 5th, Doomsday 6th.
Grab Caleb there. I'm I'm having a hard time
drafting DJ more, but I'm kind of intrigued maybe by mixing.
DJ More More is the one, More is the one I like the most, 'cause
I'm like, I just know this dude can just like, rip off
touchdowns. He just is such a big play
merchant. That's true, the big plays there
are nice. But I mean, to your point, I
could see a doomsday coming back up because it is actually fun.
As someone who's been kind of bearish on prices of these three
guys, it is very fun to stack them with Caleb.
It's also that the, you know, projection based stuff for these
guys is like, there's so much uncertainty in it.
We got a brand new quarterback that, I mean, could be really
good. And Caleb Williams.
Also, rookie quarterbacks often struggle.
We have two new wide receivers entering the team here where you
know Keenan Allen could be done, he could be.
Last year he was on pace for 1600 yards and 140 catches.
Roma Dunesay, again, a guy. There's this huge error bars I
think in the projection here where I think there's enough
upside to be to be in on these wide receivers with with the new
price adjustment for a dunesay. Yeah, I think it's like, you
know, people want to compare it to the the JSN thing last year.
I think it's very different just in terms of how much is changing
on those teams and also the quality level of the prospect
that I think in the 60s I think realm means is like a pretty
solid pick there. He is, yeah.
Yeah, he is. Yeah, and again, he keeps
falling. These these ADP I mean.
This is like where JSN was going last year and Caleb Williams is
like a better quarterback than Geno Smith.
Hopefully. And it's the same offensive
coordinator. I said it once, I'll say it
again. Caleb Williams, You better not
be bad this year because. He's not.
I'm not gonna.
I'm not gonna allow. I'm not allowing Caleb Williams
FUD. I'll let you FUD like literally.
No, I'm not even fudding him. I'm just preemptively saying
like if he's bad, it's gonna be the the collective like U-turn
the fantasy community is gonna do against Caleb Williams.
If he's bad, if these receivers is gonna.
Be like the the, the online vitriol for Caleb Williams is
gonna be very high if he's bad, very, very.
High. Yeah.
Sam, would you mind sharing with us your your drafts folder on
Twitter? I'd like to see that.
Yeah, I've been. I've been pumping like five of
those out of a week in drafts. I'm just getting ready.
All right. Can I do my?
Twitter's going to turn on this guy so hard.
Like how is it it's? Going to be.
It's going to be me. Yeah, it's going.
Can I do my 80 Mitchell Bull posting before before you guys
say he stinks? Sure.
Go ahead. Yeah.
So like pretty clear that the NFL viewed him as a very boom
bust, like very wide range of outcomes guy, evident by, you
know, him going behind objectively lower ceiling guys.
I think like Piersall Mcconkey, you know, kind of around like
Roman Wilson style guys. But I think that at this new
cost we're kind of getting like a giant discount on what his
ceiling is because his ceiling might be he's better than
Michael Pittman. Like I don't think any of us are
really huge Michael Pittman Bros Like, I I like the idea of
pairing an elite wide receiver one with Anthony Richardson.
So you've got that crazy like quarterback rushing ceiling or
maybe Anthony Richardson throws 47 passes one week.
And like I think Crane, you said this, like Drake, London's just
Michael Pittman with a a better publicist.
But the the the underlying comment there is that, well,
actually just means these guys are really not that good.
You know, like they're they're good.
I'm not saying Pittman's bad, but I Pittman is.
He's a target. Share merchant.
Come on. Yes, yes, correct.
And downs is fine like I I like Josh Downs I think.
Downs is good. Yeah, Downs is good, sure.
But 80? Mitchell like has the physical
make up and the these flashes of being a guy who could be a star.
I'm not going to say he is. And clearly the NFL is telling
me that my analysis of him was wrong, that he actually is
profiles to be a star. If we if we do, we need to do
some kind of, you know, mad scientist experiment here and
get Josh Downs brain into AD Mitchell's body.
Yes. Yeah, because Downs thinks he's
him. Yeah, he thinks he's, I mean,
we're taking the, we're taking that dude at.
I mean there's our second round, we're looking for second
rounders, there's the 2nd rounder.
So we get Josh Downs and 80 Mitchell's body.
I'm taking him. I mean, I take that guy ahead of
Marvin Harris. That's that's pretty exciting.
Yeah, but I do think 80. I still think he has room to
fall further to be honest. I think. 80 Mitchell Yeah, you
know. Like he he he will.
So I'm not like, I'm not like Super Draft, like I'm taking him
sometimes, but like, I think he ends up falling another 15 spots
maybe. Yeah, here's my thing with the
Colts and this could end up being a bad take.
But Anthony Richardson? Like, I get he's super exciting
in fantasy in himself. But then I think people make the
mistake of saying like, oh, because Anthony Richardson is
being drafted as the QB 5. Like all of his weapons are then
better picks. We're taking the quarterback
high and obviously it can work. Like, you know, Jalen Hurts made
A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith and
Dallas Goddard, you know, solid fantasy contributors.
But to me, Richardson still has a ton to prove in the NFL as
like a real good, like real life quarterback.
And I don't know if we saw enough to like, immediately be
so excited about his supporting cast.
Like he's going to scramble so much.
He's going to get a bunch of, like, rushing touchdowns.
But that's just going to suck all the fantasy points like away
from his teammates in some ways that I'm just, I don't know.
I'm kind of skeptical on all the Colts skill position players as
a result of that. I will say of these three guys,
80, Mitchell sort of theoretically fits with Anthony
Richardson the best. All big plays doesn't need 11
targets per game, it's it's just all flash and bang.
Touchdowns, right. The whole thing is like, where's
when is this guy gonna show up? It's like well, he knows the
ball's coming his way in you know at the seven yard line.
I've trust Aidy Mitchell to step.
I mean he scored a bunch of touchdowns at Texas.
Like I mean is this sort of like a plaques go Burris type of type
of play or you're just like hey he doesn't do much but he scores
in the red zone and he. He could definitely score.
He could definitely score like 11 touchdowns on like 84
targets. Yeah, yeah.
And I mean that if you're looking to stack Richardson.
Is so. Doubling up his passing
touchdowns is exactly how you want to do it.
Yeah. So I mean, I you could talk me
back into 80. Mitchell, I I would love to take
him more. Like I have him ranked.
I think he should be at like 120 instead of like 108, but I don't
know, maybe, maybe, maybe I've talked myself back into it a
little bit. Yeah, I was gonna say like one
110 to 120 range, which is probably nitpicking where he
goes now. Like, it's just obviously if I
have Anthony Richardson, I'm considering him like where he's
going now for sure. Like, I'm.
I'm not. I'm not considering I'm if I'm
taking Anthony Richardson, I'm taking him.
Yeah. Like what?
What? What's the argument for not take
like you? You really needed Rashid Shahid.
I guess we I do kind of like. Rashid.
Yeah, I like Rashid. Rashid.
What you you really need? You really need Jerry Judy on
your Anthony Richardson team. No.
Take him over, Judy. Yeah, Jerry Judy, come on.
What was that contract that Jerry Judy got this offseason
that that was? It's got to be the biggest
contract ever for a wide receiver who's never had 1000
yards. Is that the worst contract that
Browns have ever given out? I can't think of any other bad
ones. All I can think of, yeah.
Last guy. Oh, go ahead.
Yeah, no. Last guy I wanted to hit on here
was Brock Bowers, The bottom of the chart.
He's down 15 picks. Pick 92.
Yeah, I don't know. I honestly like, I didn't do
this for tight ends. I mapped up the landing spots
for running backs and wide receivers.
Like, I'm sure if I did this for tight ends, I would have had the
Raiders ranked as like a bottom 10 landing spot for a tight end,
right? Like, it's just bad there.
There's no way. There's no two ways around it.
Quarterback Gardner Minshew competing with Jacoby Myers and
Devante Adams on a team that's going to have one of the lowest
win totals. It's just.
Are you Are you worried that you were literally personifying the
middle IQ bell curve meme right now?
Brock Bowers and and the two sides Are Brock Bowers Go Burr
and you're in the middle going well.
The Raiders aren't a very good landing spot made.
The QB play is not that good and we just don't know.
My face is getting redder and redder.
I, I, I, I'm taking Bowers. Not because anything you said
was wrong, but because it's just it'll be so freaking obvious in
hindsight that he was a good, like by like week four, you're
like, oh, Bowers is catching 5 1/2 passes per game and he
scored three times already and you're just like, well, yeah,
duh, like, I like, obviously that's what's going to happen.
And he, I don't know, maybe he'll suck and Devante Adams
will take all the targets and it'll be a nightmare.
But that doesn't feel the most likely thing to me.
So I would love to be in on Bowers, but like, I really think
he needs to fall further. I mean, it's he.
He will, I think. You know, like compared to wait,
So where? Where does ETR?
Where does ETR have him ranked? Where does ETR have?
Him ranked one, I think. Like six, I think.
No, I'm kidding. Yeah, Leonie actually projects
Mayer over Brock Bowers, I think.
Yeah, no, but I mean I think that's probably closer to where
he should be than his ADPI think he's being like the like like
111 is where I think you should be.
So he's got at least you know he's got like 15 picks more than
that to. Fall There's just too many,
there's too many good running backs there for me, like at pick
90 that. That's that's The thing is that
it's just, yeah, it's like I'll take a little bit of Jalen
Warren, I'll take a little bit of Tony Pollard, I'll get some
Trey Benson Court. You're oftentimes if you have,
if you have a Miami wide receiver or you have CD like if
they're like all the quarterbacks there are good.
Caleb is there. Daniels is there like it is.
It is a range where you're you're kind of trying to fill
holes. So it's not all and Bowers kind
of feels like a luxury pick. Yeah, here's the The luxury pick
thing that worries me is they drafted Michael Mayer last year.
They actually signed Harrison Bryant to a $4 million contract
this offseason. I think they they win this draft
like. Preparing for Bowers to not be
on the board at pick 13 or, they thought, a quarterback they
liked. They thought they were taking
Penix. They totally were taking Penix.
This this feels like a like the guy who, you know, just bought
the ESPN Magazine before your fantasy draft and like the guy
he circled wasn't there and he just panics and picks Michael
Mayer at pick thirteen NFL draft.
Like, I just don't trust this Raiders organization to like
have a coherent plan with mayor. Obviously they have plenty of
time to figure it out, but this is like a luxury pick for an
organization that's going nowhere.
It just it just has a lot of red flags for me.
It has a lot of red flags for me too.
But like, I I want to be in because I think Bowers is really
good. The problem is that like he's
going near Jake Ferguson, Dallas Gotter, David and Joku.
I mean, I just don't really see how you take him over those
guys. Like you're you're dealing with
routes, route issue early on, right?
Like Mayer's probably playing ahead to begin the season.
He's kind of do like the Dalton Kincaid, like they're running a
lot of 12 personnel. But like Bauer's route
participation early on is probably like in the 60% range,
65% range. You're hoping he gets up by the
end of the season to a full time role, but then is he out
targeting Jacoby Myers as the number two in this offense?
Like, I hope, but it's not a guarantee this offense isn't
going to be passing a ton, as we talked about earlier.
So like that's all it. You know, as a top 100 pick,
like that's a lot of things I'm I'm kind of having to get right.
If I can get him kind of where Dalton Kincaid was going last
year and I'm trading some of the Josh Allen upside for just like
this guy's better than Kincaid upside, That's where I start to
get interested. So get him outside of the top
100 picks and I will start taking Bowers again happily and
and kind of I think he would fill a real hole in the draft.
Like there's not really any tight ends in that range that we
feel good about. You know, Dalton Schultz is like
the only guy kind of even in that vicinity that I feel OK
about. I'm I'm out on Hawkinson, so
there's not really anyone there. Comet took a big hit with the
doonsay. So you know, he would actually
like really be nice to have in in that part of the draft.
You know, kind of like Gus Edwards is is going off the
board, Taiji Spears going off the board and then Brock Bowers
is sitting right there after that, that pocket of running
backs is gone. That would be pretty sweet.
So I I really hope that's the way it goes right now.
I'm not really drafting him. I think he'll continue to fall.
Let's wrap up here guys. Best ADP risers from now to
September. For people who weren't with us
last year, this is a competition.
We do every show trying to project the biggest closing line
value guys on the board and we'll tally it up together, you
know, last last stream of the year in September.
So I started last time. I'll give it to you Pat, to
start this time because I'm honest, you know, I I play this
game without cheating, taking the easy way out.
So who do you want? I.
Haven't talked about this one bit.
I I have a really good name, but I'm actually gonna save it for a
future week because I think he's gonna fall more.
Smart. Yeah.
Go someone else. Go, 'cause I need to, like,
literally think about what I'm gonna do.
I will. Take yeah, I will take Kamani,
Vidal. They the the slappies.
The slappies are gonna give it all so much higher.
Oh, it's a good one. That's a really good one.
Yeah. The the thing with that one is
it's it's kind of like binary right?
Like he's they're gonna yeah, that's either going to be a big
win or, like, hilarious. He doesn't get drafted, yeah.
Yeah, that's a good one all. Right.
I'll, I'll take Tyron Tracy. That was the other guy I was
gonna. I was thinking about him, Yeah.
That's a good one. The the one I'll go with this is
definitely a risk. I'm going to go with Rashid
Rice, I think. That's who I was going to take.
I was.
I also crossed my mind because I think he's falled further.
I'm going to take him in two weeks and then well.
Wait, are you allowed? Are we allowed to do that?
I guess. We've done that.
Before we've definitely done that.
Yeah, same. In the closing line value game,
getting the worst closing line value in that game because.
I'm going to have to tell Rashid Rice on Twitter so much to keep
his keep his price elevated. Yeah.
OK, well fuck this game. Fuck this game.
I'm not tracking it. This.
Year it's week two, it's Week 2. You got to wait for him to be
like pick 83 and then the NFL says he's suspended for the
first half of game one. Davis and I just playing chicken
for the rest of this game. It takes rice.
Oh God. All right, that'll that'll do
it. It was a good pick, though.
It is a good, I mean, we definitely agree with you.
Yeah. Like I think by BICIP number
yeah we'll see we'll see or says that's not.
Fair. That's not fair.
Yeah, I think we did. I think this is right from Neil.
I think we tried to avoid repeats, but I did such a bad
dog job tracking it that I could never like definitively say this
is a repeat or it's not. So it it just kind of quickly,
quickly went off the rails? I mean, I definitely took two
two out well like 3 separate times and he rose to like a 17th
round pick. I I took pre saw at least twice
and I at one point had like a a pivot off of it in case and then
I think you gave me credit for that same.
Yeah. Classic terrain.
I did all right. That'll do it for ADP chasing.
We'll be back next Monday, same time as always.
I think we'll have Hayden Winks on as our first guest of the
season. And yeah, we'll try to bully him
out of his running back rankings.
I've seen Hayden's, he's got some running backs pretty high
up there, so, So we'll do our best, Hayden, and I'm sure he's
going to come pretty well prepared for that.
Pat, I saw you wrote an article about a tree or something today.
What? What else you got going on at
Legendary Upside? I did, and it's completely free.
legendaryupside.com wrote an article.
It's it's about, actually it's, you know, if you're watching the
show, I think you you'll really enjoy it.
It's about how to build around big stands.
So if you're taking big stands, 30% plus of a player, you know,
how do you think about what? Like what now?
And then the article's really about that.
But it's an extended metaphor that involves A mahogany tree
that was found in 1965 in the Central American rainforest.
So if you want to just like, lose in a bunch of diversified
ways with JSN, Pat will teach you how to do that.
Davis, what about you? What do you have going on?
Just updated my ranks this morning.
It's it's dynasty rookie draft season.
I'm, I'm, I'm in like 17 concurrent rookie drafts right
now. So it's a lot of, a lot of
trying to get like 2026 third round picks out of people for
very small. Davis has already tilted me.
I was talking with Anthony Miko and I was trying to get Evan
Ingram for a second and then Davis got him for a second and
like 3/4. So I was like Miko could could
have asked if I would have given you 3/4 or probably would have.
Where you and I you and I are I so you and I are in a real arms
race in that league where and and I'm at.
I'm running out of picks. I I got like 3 roster spots to
fill and I've got like a 2026 first left like plug the hole.
So it's a real it's it's a real problem.
So that's what I've got going on right now.
If you're in a If you're in a league with me, send me some.
Last thing I'll mention before we head out over to establish
the run. They have a new Best Ball
package they're working on over there, so $39.00 for the whole
season. Get ranks, all that good stuff.
I'll be contributing to that throughout the season, probably
more so in the summer. But yeah, have good stuff going
on there. Anyways, we'll be back next
week. See you guys.