Hello everyone and welcome to the final ADP chasing show of
the season. We have a lot in store Today
we're going to be going over the results from the closing line
value ADP game, revealing our truth serum takes and some plans
for in season ADP chasing. Details will be given at the end
of the show. Let's do it.
ADP chasing is for when you watch ship chasing you go these
guys are just football guys. And the targets for outrun
leagues, that's going to be really nice, actually.
Back in if it's Austinette. It's tear into our crystal ball.
Close your eyes, you know all your entries are going to lose.
Anyway, yeah. That's fair.
This is a Deuce vant show. It's.
Anti cabal. It's anti the best ball thought
leader. I'm obviously lying to some
degree because like, I have a lot of both of these guys.
It's the most disgusting thing you can make.
But man. Well fellas, it's been a long
season of ADP Chasing. I think I was digging through
the episodes today. We started this back in February
with the leg up editions of ADP chasing.
I had to pick through been been 6-7 months of doing this.
It's been great. How are you guys doing now?
The season's almost at the start.
Not enough time, man, Not enough time honestly.
Is, is is is what I feel like it's, it's just I still have a
couple DraftKings Millie makers left to do.
I still have one more main event left to do.
But also at the same time, it's like I also need to figure out
like week 1 DFS, like week 1 DF, like I we are, we are 48 hours
away from a showdown slate that I will risk hundreds of American
dollars on. And I haven't even logged in to
SIM labs yet to start working on it.
So it's just has a lot going on at at one time.
It is. I'm like trying to do more 55
fives, but I'm also trying to write the walkthrough.
So it's like a weird like I'm thinking about week one.
I'm thinking about the season still.
Yeah, could use a little more. If anyone knows how to add more
time I'm interested. Yeah, and also give me some
comments that my audio. I I think you fixed.
It is it OK now? Yeah, I think you.
Fixed it. Yeah, Full disclosure today I am
streaming off of a hotspot on my phone.
Do not have Wi-Fi set up in the new apartment, so we could be in
for a wild ride today. The city of Boston, I think has
good coverage for AT&T, but that's an issue we can take up
with them if if things go. South I've I've streamed, I've
done it before off my hotspot, not as the not as the host, but
I I've connected via hotspot before and it it's fine.
Yeah. I mean, we're, we're not a show
that's known for our production quality.
We're more kind of known. For I'm in a shed right now, so,
you know, Yeah. Yeah.
No. I I'm just glad I have a better
background than someone on the show.
Finally, the the blank wall is finally being to rest the
grandmas China is being put to rest.
I have a have a real adult background going on now, so I'm
happy, happy for that. All right, guys, let's let's
dive in. I said an intro.
Three things we're covering today, the closing line value
game, then the truth serum takes, and then we'll talk at
the end about our plans for what we're doing in season.
We'll start here with the closing line value game.
I absolutely hate to show this again.
It's just, it's just devastating eternity.
Pat just absolutely dominating once again.
Yeah, actually it was close. I would say absolutely
dominating. Pat came to 1st year.
He got an average ADP change of 10%.
I got 7%, so I was close and then, yeah.
And, and Sam, I'm just curious, you asked if we should just, you
know, eliminate guys who went to IR with the caveat that it would
help you. Would you have won if we if if
Davis had signed off on that? We'll we'll get to that later.
Pat, I, I, I won't be talking about the results of this this
show. So anyone just focus on?
Dave hey, can we change the rules so I win or or?
Well, it's actually crazy. This is so funny that I would
have done this because I would assume if I would have just read
my own underdog exposures, considering that all of them
absolutely smashed, I would have just won this game.
Like if I would have just taken Chase Brown and Rashi Rice,
Enrico Dowdell and Xavier Worthy, like I would have just
won this game. So I guess I guess I need to to
learn myself. I need to learn Matic to win
this game next year. That's about the that was my
first day wishes. It's really been the the summer
of Davis, just all of his takes, the takes even most public
about. I've just smashed closing line
value. So I don't know what happened.
The pressure of the closing line value game got to you in the
heat of the moment, but you really choked here in some of
the selections. If you just stuck with your
guys, you I think. I wonder, I bet, I, I bet I took
Kamani Videl at one point and he's like a 90% loser.
Like I, I, I must have had a couple.
I want I but I maybe took Rondale once, but I I'm just
trying to think of guys. I'm trying to think of guys I
would have taken that I would have lost Marshawn Lloyd.
Yeah, that's a bad one, obviously so.
So here are here are the results.
Yeah, you did take, did I? Put Rashi Rice at some point
too. No.
So if someone can go to the tapes and and find that there
was a point where I so I took Rashi Rice, I didn't even take
him at his lowest point. And you guys both criticized me
for, you know, taking him when he was going to fall even
further. But I think everyone just forgot
to take him again so. I thought I took him the next
week but maybe I'm wrong. Yeah, there's possible.
I did this by literally going through each episode 1 by 1 and
tracking them. Possible.
Honestly, I don't think I did though.
But yeah, Rashe Rice, that was the biggest victory for me.
I mean, again, Pat just just took a bunch of cheap wins.
I mean, Ezekiel Elliott on the first the first week after he
signed. These are all good ticks.
Come on, man. Like try try to help the
listeners out. Just don't take the the easy.
It was Ezekiel. It was a pretty solid pick
actually. Justin Fields.
Justin Fields was half right. There was like a week where he
was like a 14th round pick. I'm I'm looking at this list and
I'm like, OK, Bidel, easy loss. Curtis Samuel obviously was a
winner, but then injuries his toe.
So it's it's pretty obvious to me why I did not do good, why I
did not do well this game. And I took Zeke at her at the
wrong time too. Yeah, this is funny too.
Yeah, as the points out, Zeke is on both ends.
Back, back on Zeke. It's the second best value.
Davis got him as the third worst value in this game, so you hate
to see it. There's some other funny things,
like at one point Davis took Curtis Samuel in back-to-back
weeks. I think Pat also took like
Travis Kelsey multiple times. There are a couple weird things
where like we were not tracking. Can you make one of those rushy
rice? Because I'm sure that's what I
meant. That's what.
I wanted to do Yeah, no, no. So here's the.
Deal next year we need to be more locked in on this it needs
to be a wager that all of us are yeah yeah, locked in on we.
Need to track it as we go to know who we did have a.
Wager. Yeah, we had a wager last year
and I tracked it as we go. We we messed up this year by not
having a wager because it really just slept with the cracks, but.
I mean, if you guys want to put stakes on this thing, I won.
I have a couple of rule changes I'd like to propose before we
put stakes on that. But because I want to point out,
it's like, I think it's pretty clear I had the best process
here. I mean, you look at you look at
these 3 picks, my two worst picks, Elijah Mitchell and Ricky
Pearsall, one of them literally got shot.
The other went on IRI mean we're counting, we're counting those
two against me. I I don't think so.
And then Semaj P Ryan, I only got, I only got the increase up
to 280P because when BBM closed, he was at 280P.
If you take his actual increase to like what he's going to be,
you know, when the season starts, that pick gets a lot
better. So.
That's true. You did get robbed on that one.
Yeah. I don't know that that Perisol
really cost you that much because he had already fallen a
lot. He already.
Fallen even before he got shot. It was not, it was a bet on Nuke
getting traded and he didn't get traded.
So I think that one's a little, but I'll give you the P Ryan.
P Ryan, you should get a little bit more.
I would say maybe about 2% more. We can give you an extra 2%.
You can go to 9. Yeah.
But anyways, yeah, I mean, all I'm saying is if if my guy
didn't get shot and we had a couple more days to be, I think
it's a lot closer. Any other, any other reflections
on this? I mean, I was actually, I was
impressed by Pat. I think 5 of the top 9 risers.
Here, I mean, Pat Pat taking Chase Brown.
Pat taking Chase Brown is just like that's trademark
infringement right there. Like I or or honestly maybe I, I
have reached this spot with Chase Brown where it's like I
actually have so much exposure to him.
I think I've got him on three main events.
I've got him on three big dogs. He was my most drafted running
back in BBMI. I've now reached the fear stage
of being this exposed to a player of like, if this dude
comes out and and fumbles against New England, like it's
just gonna, it's just gonna be so brutal for me.
Like I, I, I, I kinda just wanna quietly reap the benefits.
I I'm not gonna feel the need to victory lap a strong Week 1
Chase performance 'cause I know how fragile.
Oh yeah, you definitely won't. Victory lap a strong Chase Brown
Week 1 performance TS Brown crushes we won't hear.
From Davis at all I put no listen, I put this in discord.
I put this in the in the ship chasing discord earlier.
The only guy I'm going to victory lap is when Worthy
scores a long touchdown against the Ravens.
That's it. Everyone else we're I'm just
along for the ride. I'm here to disseminate
information, but worthy when Worthy scores.
Along comes down. I don't believe this at all.
I can't wait for to explain what what you don't.
The reason I did 10-3 laps actually what you don't
understand. I was just sharing information.
It's not, it's not a victory lap.
I'm just trying to disseminate information to my fault.
I. Can do it.
The victory lap thing. Yeah.
Yeah, you're obviously lying to some degree.
I believe, I believe the because I did 2 actually Davis, I did 2
copyright infringements here, Chase Brown, clear copyright
infringement, but also Braylon Allen and even more egregious
brand infringement on on you there.
But I believe I let you pick first in both of those.
I I wanted to see if you would take your guy.
You didn't. You know, someone, someone in
the chat made this point earlier, which is that it's kind
of hard for me to be in tune with these guys that I was
getting massive CLV on because I was just taking them at their
new price anyways. Like I was taking Braylon out in
the 15th round when he was an 18th round pick.
So it, it maybe I was a little bit out of tune with who would
be a riser because I was just taking them there anyway.
So, but I mean, you started out being agnostic on Braille and
Allen, you were you when we were doing these shows in February,
you were, you were not a believer.
So I'm I'm glad that you came around in the end.
I did. I mean, he had a really strong
offseason throughout. I mean, even in the early, like
before training camp, OTAs and stuff, he was getting positive
press and I thought Izzy would get cut.
I, I think in some ways it wasn't as bullish as it could
have been, but it was still pretty damn bullish.
Yeah. All right.
So that that'll do it for this closing line value segment.
Yeah, at I will give him credit. Use the repeat two times winner
of this game, but I don't I mean Davis and I clearly weren't even
trying. There was no stakes.
So I mean. You weren't trying, so no.
Gave the whole model just a. Bad.
I was trying what I what I picked Greg Dulcich.
If I was trying, I mean. A bad a bad effort by me to
select Curtis Samuel twice. Just like a really bad effort by
me. Honestly though, like so not the
flavor at this point, but all of the losers here are just like
guys who got injured. Like actually, I think the
Curtis Samuel thing was trending in the right direction for you,
Davis until. The he got up to like wide
receiver 44 for a week and then he hurt his toe.
Yeah, I think the Herbert momentum was stopped by that
planter fascia thing, the Marshawn Lloyd thing.
So a lot, a lot of these losses, Pearsall, Mitchell too, can be
chalked up to injury. But anyways.
When did you pick Jaleel that? That's a good one.
That was an early one. Let me get the date on that.
That's. One of my third ones on here.
The Jaleel 1 I got in, sorry, I have this organized everybody.
I got him on May 13th at an ADP of 181.
So I'm, I feel pretty good about that one.
That's a really good one. Yeah.
This is this is neither here nor there, but this is I just got an
e-mail notification that Ben Gretch, in the dynasty league
that we are in, just dropped Cadarius Tony for Mack Hollins.
Just imagine telling yourself that sentence at this time last
year. That is brutal.
Oh my God. All right, take the.
We'll go, yeah, let's do the truth here and pick.
So I'll set this up a little bit.
I don't I don't have hey Mark parts show actually video charts
for one of my sticks, but no more fancy charts.
For the most part, we're going to go through three truth serum
takes each of us. One of them is going to be a
player take truth serum. One of them is going to be a
team level take truth serum, and the last one is going to be a
roster construction level take truth serum.
Like I don't know elite quarterback is the nuts this
year or zero RB sucks this year whatever something along those
lines so we'll start something along those lines yeah no, I
would never say that, but let's start here with the player take
truth serum Davis. Can I the?
Floor, can we can we talk a little bit about the truth
serum, what we're doing here 'cause?
Yeah, yeah, maybe. Yeah, yeah.
My my take on truth serum and I guess maybe you guys should.
I just want the people to be aware of what I'm coming from.
And maybe you guys have a slightly different
interpretation. But my thing on truth serum is
it's not hot take serum. It's I don't really want to give
this take, but you gave me truth serum and asked me for a take
and now I have to serum. So these aren't like necessarily
my hottest takes. They're just things I don't
really want to say. The I I do it the same way.
It's a take that I don't really want to say on a podcast, but
influence the way that I drafted teams.
I same thing for me, I, I interpreted as like a take that
is not necessarily popular or, or you're afraid that if you're
wrong about it, you're going to look really stupid.
Maybe that's another way to put it.
But yeah, it's not just the hottest take.
It's something that you actually believe, but maybe you weren't
super vocal about or wanted to talk about throughout the
season. So that's mostly how I interpret
mine. So we'll start here with the
player take true serum. I've just injected you with true
serum. What do you got?
Mine is that Marvin Harrison Junior is probably one of the
most spectacularly overdrafted players in the history of the
longest basketball mania has been happening, and the only
reason that anyone drafted him was because they didn't want to
be the guy who had no Marvin Harrison Junior.
If he smashes in the fantasy Super Bowl playoffs, that the
key difference between drafting, for example, Jamar Chase's
rookie season or even compare him to where neighbors is going
or where a Doonesday is going is that you are just straight up
passing over guys who could score like 300 fantasy points.
Just like you're just like Debo Samuel.
No thank you. Devante Adams out of here,
Crystal Nicole Collins. How about Nick?
How about just going over Nico Collins, who had like 3.3 yards
per route run last year, is playing with a guy who's like
third in MVP voting and we're just like, no, we need this
rookie wide receiver. I mean, I like Marvin Harrison
junior. I think I ended up with a nice
comfy 4% exposure blanket. But I think it is, is very
unique to the type of people who spend a lot of time drafting on
underdog. And I, I think there's a real
chance he kind of ends up with 82 receptions, 980 yards and
like 5 touchdowns. 6 like a good rookie year, a rookie year that
five years ago we would have been like this guy is going to
take over the NFL top five dynasty asset but doesn't break
fantasy his his rookie year. I agree with that.
I actually I I was very strongly considering this for my truth
serum take. I didn't because I think I've,
I've been kind of public about it.
I'm with you 100%, Davis. And again, it has nothing to do
with hating Marvin Harrison Junior.
Nothing. Player or the prospect, I am in
full agreement with people that he's one of the top three
prospects to come out of the last decade, 15 years.
No, like no disagreement there. It's just that we we see in
fantasy and a lot of people have made this point.
I think Gratius made this point, others at Rhoda Vista made this
point, that the Year 2 and Year 3 performances at wide receiver
are generally just much better bets for like the elite
receiving production. You do have the examples,
obviously, of, you know, Chase rookie year, Puka rookie year.
But I think there's just so many, like, young wide receivers
in their prime on awesome offenses that you have to pass
up on to take Marvin Harrison, Nico Collins, Jalen Waddle, the
San Francisco 49ers wide receivers.
You're putting so much faith into a guy who's literally never
done it on the NFL field and pass.
Everyone said like this, this second third round for wide
receivers is gross or it's a bad second round.
I kind of disagree. I think there's awesome wide
receiver talents in that range on awesome offenses.
So it's it's flat. It's flat, It's flat.
I agree that it's flat, but I don't think it's like, so I'm
with you. So I think I have like a 2%
Marvin Harrison junior, but I'm I'm totally with you on this
take. Crane.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on this one.
Yeah, to me the Harrison stuff represents like departure from
best ball, you know, best ball departing from redraft in terms
of like what what we're doing I think is a best ball pick and a
best ball Mania style type tournament.
He makes, you know, plenty of sense at the, at the 1-2 turn of
the early 2nd because you are taking a guy who you know, if
he, if he explodes, is like more likely to have that production
back weighted than and a veteran.
So that's, I think part of it for me is that, yeah, you're,
you're not going to get like the you're, you're not betting to
score the most points over the course of the season.
You're betting for the guy who is the hammer in the play offs.
And maybe we've jumped the shark on that, but I I understand
making that bet with, you know, one of the best wide receiver
prospects ever with a good quarterback situation, you know,
potential dominate targets down the stretch, an offensive
coordinator we believe in. So it it's definitely like we'll
find we're going to find out. And I wouldn't be surprised if
you guys are right that like, Nope, 1-2 turns just too much.
We should never take a rookie wide receiver with the 1-2 turn.
But I, I kind of like it. I like that the market never
backed off this take. I think we all felt like this
would kind of cool off or like it was like sticker shock from
the jump and it never cooled off, you know?
It it never cooled off because everyone is a coward.
It it never cooled off. It never cooled off because
everyone is too afraid to be on the record of being like, well,
I don't really like the greatest wide receiver prospect.
You know, it's like that. That is, and it's not like I'm
saying anyone who took him is bad.
Like I he, I think he's clearly such a a great talent and and he
took. Him I I have 13% Harrison I I I
think it could work. Like I think it's, it's not like
an absolute smash, but you're because of how I mean, it's just
really difficult to overstate how important the late season
scoring is. And so if I'm essentially I'm
sacrificing like some early season stuff, but then by the
end of the season I'm getting a guy who we're going to, who
we're going to take in the mid first round next year and I'm
getting that player down the stretch like it's worth the
sacrifice. I just I do want to push back a
little bit. I think we have we have time to
debate these, the late season stuff.
Crane, I totally understand that thesis for rookie wide receivers
having back weighted production. But when you're talking about a
guy that goes at the 1-2 turn, I think of it like like, is Marvin
Harrison junior more likely to have spike weeks down the
stretch then Nico Collins, Jalen Waddle, Brandon Iuke, Devo
Samuel? Like I think of the back
weighted thing more so when I'm choosing between say, Xavier
Leggett and DeMarcus Robinson, I think it's way more likely the
rookie is going to have that production versus the veteran.
So to me, I always thought that that was a little bit of a, a
misappropriation of a thesis because I'm not sure applies.
We're expecting Marvin Harrison junior to be a full time 90%
player like week one, right? So yeah, that's where I'm like.
Yeah. Why is he going back into
production? I'm just a little bit unsure.
Because over time, you would anticipate that even as a guy
who's good enough to start producing right away that he
would, you know, like in the same way that we do see the
secondary breakouts in Year 2 and Year 3 for wide receivers
that maybe he's starting to like really come into his own down
the stretch. You know, he he is new to the
NFL. So in terms of target earning, I
think we could see him become a bigger part of the offense in
the second-half of the season compared to the first, even
though he's going to be a big part of the offense right away.
Yeah. OK.
Yeah, that, that makes sense. And yeah, last, last thing I'll
add here. Is that the the Davis point of
like, nobody wants to be out on the top rookie?
I just think that's an interesting dynamic.
And I mean, look, the chat is going nuts.
They're like, they're like, I can't.
They're like they can't believe it.
And I'm like, yeah, obviously that's a reason why that's.
Why isn't that this? That's why I saved it for
September 3rd. Yeah, but it's just like there's
definitely a psychology there of like we're everyone is doing
basketballs like so in the weeds of like dynasty and prospecting
and it feels so like you want to be the guy that like knows who
the next really good player is to me.
I honestly thought that's what was propping up JS NS cost a
little bit last year when I thought he was overvalued.
It's just like, well, he's the top prospect and I don't want to
like have none of the top prospects.
So wherever he goes, I'm going to have them.
And I'm not saying that's like the whole thing.
It's not that simple. But man, look at look at like
Marvin Harrison versus Malik Neighbors redraft ADP in like
the Yahoo and ESPN leagues, like the slappies are are in on
Marvin Harrison. Like they take him at the 1-2
tournament league. Neighbors goes in like the 4th
and 5th. So maybe maybe that's a
secondary point to what I was saying.
But there there's like it's not just like the experts that are
in on them, like the very casual people see Marvin Harrison.
There's like I know the name I remember in Ohio State.
I'm in because I want to be in on Marvin Harrison and I think
we we took it too far. But we'll we'll see.
I can definitely see Davis and I being wrong on this.
It's very obvious to see how I'm wrong on this.
Like I so it's why it's a truth serum take.
It's why I I would have never brought this up unless it was,
you know, this specific part of the program.
Yeah, All right, Crane, I'll send it to you.
Now for your truth serum player take.
All right, I've got a I've got a couple, but I think I think I'm
going to pivot at the last second here, which is somewhat
difficult because I don't have all my my stats ready.
I here's the truth. This is the truth term take
based on the Marvin Harrison one.
I'm not sure Trey McBride is really that good dominated
target. I don't.
I don't know if he's that good. Shot in the heart.
Gretchen's turning off the podcast right now.
Listen, this is also true stream because like we've we've taken
McBride. You know, we, we we'll probably
take McBride again tonight. You know, we're drafting with
Leonie. I they, they, we want to go
elite tight end. We'll probably end up with
McBride again, but I'm just, you know, this guy, he didn't pass
Zach Ertz ever. He never passed him.
He didn't pass him as a rookie, and then he didn't pass him as a
second year player until Zach Ritz got hurt.
That's when he got in front of him.
Then with Rondell Moore, who would like immediately lost his
job to Ray Ray McLeod, with Michael Wilson, who can't earn
targets at all. I have some response for the.
Dead dude. With Greg Dorch, who wasn't even
on the field, this dude dominated targets.
But he had he had a first retarget rate of 19%, which is
the highest among all tight ends.
That's great unless they added the best wide receiver prospect
of a generation that could be bad for who's getting the first
3 targets. His open score was like super
mediocre. He had a great yard sprout run,
great target sprout run, all the all the metrics we like really
good. But is he that good?
Or did he just happen to soak up targets with no target
competition for half a season after the guy he couldn't pass,
Zach Ertz got hurt? This is one of my this is one of
my deepest fears. I will I will rebuke this with
some statistics. The first one is that Trey
McBride at the roughly the same average depth of target to Brock
Bowers who like we are literally falling.
Like I'm surprised all of our surprised all of our truth
serums weren't actually. Brock Bowers is the tight end
one and we should have had 100% exposure to him.
He had the same A dot as Bowers their final seasons in college.
Trey McBride had the number one receiving grade in PFF 2.78
yards per route run with like giga targets.
He had 91 receptions his final season in college.
No other tight end his final season had more than 73 targets.
He caught 75% of those targets with again, a pretty healthy A
dot. I I'm pretty confident he's
good. Where I will meet you in the
middle is I will say there's definitely a chance that if you
just move him to a 21% target share instead of a 27% target
share that he then basically just becomes Dalton Schultz.
Yeah, it's more like I really do believe in the elite tight ends
this year. It's kind of being the key to
the season. I have 8% of McBride in BBM, so
I didn't really draft like this. And look, cuz I think I'm not
sure, OK, I'm not sure if he's good.
I'm still willing to draft him Sharp people really like him.
They're certainly upside, especially in, you know, on
DraftKings and, and FFPC where you get more of the PPR
goodness. But yeah, I'm just, it's a very
thin resume on a guy who I, I saw him as an OK prospect, but,
you know, not someone we were really that excited about.
I mean, he was going fairly late in dynasty drafts that year,
like kind of Pat Fryermuthie in terms of his his rookie ADP,
like not a not a prospect that we were extremely excited about.
He was kind of more of like an interesting guy and he landed in
an amazing situation last year and took full advantage of it.
But that's how tight end, you know, like you said.
Situation isn't Yeah, well, yeah, but this, this situation
just got worse for him to to gobble up targets.
And I think that like I, I don't fully, I, I'm taking McBride.
I'm not like overly overweight and so I'm not sure I agree, but
I see where you're going with this.
I think the other point like in your favor, Pat, is people
forget a little bit like how bad his rookie year was.
I remember we, I had him in Spanish league and this is his
rookie year and like the first time he caught the NFL field, he
got absolutely like pancakes and then wasn't on the field.
He came for like 4 weeks and I'm like, I'm claim for Josh Kelly.
And it turned out it turned out that year that that was the
right decision in redrafted year.
Like he, that's a good call. He yeah, he was like never even
at the end when he got some run, he was still like pretty useless
as a fantasy asset. I do.
I don't know the the numbers but I remember. 0.84 0.84 yards per
route run that season he only ran.
No, actually he ran 317 routes. That's a lot better than I.
Thought, yeah. So it's a question of how, like
what data do you trust? Do you completely throw out that
rookie year data? I probably would put 90% of my
weight into the second year data and 10% of my weight into the
rookie year data. Like I don't think that's who he
is as a player, but I see where you're coming from with this one
a little bit. Not sure I fully agree though.
I think he The thing is, is I think I think he might end up
being right about like, oh, McBride is actually not this
explosive kind of like certainly I don't think you of him as like
a Gronk Graham style player. But I I mean, if Kyler gets to
560 throws because the offense is just really good, it it, it
might not matter I think. Yeah.
Right, that's a fair point from Bills, who was the quarterback
end of the year's Rook year. It was a atrocious Quebec
situation after Carl like I heard.
Who was that Clayton tuner? Yeah, but this is targets per
route run. Targets per route run, you know.
Sometimes it's hard to incompetent.
It's a quarterback. It's just like taking a sack and
replaying. Can't even read.
Sometimes that data you do have to throw out.
But I agree with you. Like it's a per route stat that
shouldn't be too affected by who the quarterback was.
Yeah, again is my how is my WI? Fi it's not, it's not great,
it's not great, but we're persevering all.
Right. We're persevering.
I'm sorry. Yeah, He makes me nervous is
all. He makes me nervous.
And there's so many great early tight ends.
To the extent that I did actually act on this take, it's
that I have 22% Mark Andrews in Bestball Mania, and so I didn't
split that evenly. I bet on Mark Andrews.
So I'm convinced is an elite talent still.
And I took my, I took my 8% of McBride.
Yeah, I've got, I've got way more Andrews.
Like I'm, I'm 100% in alignment there.
Like my concern level on Andrews is 0.0.
My McBride concern is like, I don't know, 10% or something.
Yeah, yeah. All right, I'll go ahead and
give my truth serum take. I guess my brand I'm actually
going with take in favor of a player rather than your state.
Stunned. I'm going with that.
I think Julio Jones, I mean, sorry, I already mentioned it.
Let me start this over. Producer, edit this 321
Producer, can you? Can you edit this Nico?
Collins, Nico Pro case for retired Julio Jones.
Nico is the roster anyway. Is the reincarnation of Julio
Jones and it's like people don't even care at all.
There have been three wide receivers of the last decade to
have more than three yards for outrun in a season.
It's Julio Jones, Cooper Cup and Tyree Kill.
It's like a who's who of the absolute league winners in
fantasy football of the past decade at wide receiver.
Nico Collins just did it. And people want to hit him with
all these excuses like, oh, it only happened because Tank Dell
wasn't there. Oh, you know, he was competing
for targets with Noah Brown and Robert Woods.
I don't care. Over three yards of an outrun in
a season is just absolutely insane.
And again, we're taking him behind like Drake, Drake London,
like has done nothing close to this in his NFL career.
We're taking him behind a rookie and Marvin Harrison.
We're taking him behind. I love Garrett Wilson.
Nico Collins might just be a better football player.
He's already done it. Nico's already done it.
He's already if there's no wish casting.
He did it if we watch it happen. And and here's the second part
of this take. He's playing with like the
reincarnation of Peyton Manning, Tom Grady in terms of the pocket
passing quarterback and CJ Strap.
And people also don't care about that.
It's like, oh, that's that on the guy playing with Aaron
Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles, you know, considering
running for vice president. Let's take him over the best
waters for the guy attached to CJ Stroud.
It to me, it's just insane to me that he's like not in the
consideration set with these other guys.
People are taking like Cooper Cup over him now.
I have I think 29% Nico Collins last time I tracked which is.
You know ball, you know ball. I'm I'm actually looking at my
15% and being like, you fucking suck, dude.
You should have 20%. This is this is this is such a
good take, man. This is such a good take.
Yeah, it's just, it's not a it's not a anti digs take, it's not
an anti del take. I'm taking those guys as well.
I'm just like I I want to be all in on these Texans pass
catchers. I think one of them is going to
be the guy you need in fantasy this year.
And I think Nico has the best awesome dude.
He's like 6-4, like elite speed. He's like a freak grass athlete.
He's one of these guys that was drafted and people were like,
oh, he's kind of a developmental prospect.
That kind of, to me, explains his slower adjustment to the
NFL. He played on these awful
Michigan teams who had like, who had like no quarterbacks.
It it and awful Texans teams. Yeah.
Davis Mills was a quarterback the first year's career.
I mean, we can, we can cut a break for that.
Yeah. So to me, I'm all in on Nico
this year. I think he's going to be top
two, top three fantasy football wide receiver.
I think he doesn't get enough credit.
It's honestly cheating, cheating of you to take a player who has
no haters and it just be like, I think this guy who has no haters
is a good pick. That is honestly, honestly, I
kind of think that's cheating of you.
It was hot enough. It was hot enough that I do
think it qualifies as a truth serum take because you're saying
this dude is, you know, the reincarnation of of a player
who's still alive. The other the reincarnation of
quarterbacks, Hall of Farmers. I mean, that's pretty, it's
pretty hot. So I don't know, I'm ready at
8%. Overall, I think he's a good
pick, but I guess I've had trouble getting excited.
Like I think you're selling me with that level of excitement
because that's what you need, I think, to be taking him at a
high rate in the second round because like, you can play it
more cheaply through digs and Dell and I do that a lot.
You know, I, I actually have the most digs of anyone, which
surprises me a little. But like, I still think digs is
good. So, you know, and he he
ultimately became the cheapest of the three.
Yeah, again, yeah, I like, I'm not.
I'm never going to say that either of those guys are bad
picks. I don't have any I guess
counters to it. I just think that the Texans are
at like, yeah, I just want to be taking multiple shots at the
Texans wide receivers. Let's move on here to team level
shoot Serum takes. David.
Sorry, did I cut you off there with my shitty?
Wife I did. I just I did just want to say
it's like that is just very non ship chasing of you Pat to take
the oldest one, to have the most of the oldest.
It is, yeah. That's kind of against what we
do here, which is, you know, a little bit of a bummer.
I know, but I'm you know, I'm overweight on Dell and I'm even
with Nico. So it's not like I'm fading the
other guys in in, you know, to get more digs.
Exactly. But like I just digs to me is
just not someone who should be available at the very end of the
third round. Like he was still his yards per
target drop last year, but he kept he did this with the Bills
a couple times where he had like very steady target sprout run
and then his yard yards per target.
It's been all over the place. Scratch has talked about this
too. And like the yards per target
could go up significantly in this offense.
Like, I think he's getting, I mean, is he even getting like
worst quarterback play from like a wide receiver's perspective?
Yeah, it might be getting better.
So I think, yeah, I'm still, I still think Diggs is good.
And so it's just like, I don't know, I just thought he belonged
to, you know, 3 or 4 picks higher.
Yeah. Here's where I think I'm maybe
wrong on the take is that like from a season long perspective,
it just gets too split up between Diggs, Diggs, Dell and
Nico and Nico finishes his like the wide receiver 14.
But man, I think the spike like you look at the spike weeks for
Dell and Nico last year and they both just had such massive weeks
that even I think in the losing scenarios where Nico is not the
clear outfit, it's a pretty even split between those guys.
I still like the weekly ceiling for a wide receiver in this
offense is going to be insane. The CJ Stroud.
I I do think I I am kind of leaning into the vibes of the
Texans are going for the MVPCS in the Stroud this year.
They're not messing around with the you know, first and ten runs
Devin Singletary every time like they did last year.
I think they're going to let him cook.
So I'm really looking forward to watching the Texans office.
All right, we'll switch up the order here a little bit for the
team level. Hot or not hot takes our true
serum takes. Crane will go you first, then me
second, Davis third here. What do you got?
All right, so we've got some trendy backdoor stacks this
year. The the Broncos, I would say,
are among the trendiest backdoor stacks.
Obviously I've talked to the Patriots all summer and you got
the the Panthers people back in. You know, Deonte Johnson's going
to get all these targets, all that right.
You know who's not trendy? The Saints.
The Saints is not a trendy backdoor stack, but I think he
could be the very best of the not not Drake may ones because I
I'm still I'm still going to say they're Drake May is the best
way to play it. But if we're talking versus the
Broncos, I mean, I was looking at Russell Wilson's EPA per play
last year. It was totally functional.
Not not that like I believe in Russ as as everyone knows, I
don't, but like there's actually a fair amount that this offense
could fall. I think people kind of assume
like, Oh, it won't be worse than last year.
They're bringing in a rookie quarterback who early in the
process people did not think was going to go in the first round,
kind of went in the first round, I think as a need.
And now we're just kind of assuming like a little bit of a
floor here. We can we couldn't get any run
for Marvin Mims or Troy Franklin in the the preseason.
Those guys I think are kind of the the the guys where we would
really get some sealing out of these stacks.
You look at the Saints like. It's super concentrated, like
Olave. What if they move Olave around
the formation a little bit in this one Kubiak offense.
What if it's a little bit more modern, a little bit more
creative? Rashid Shahid is the clear #2
wide receiver. They really don't even have like
a #3 receiver with Thomas gone. Jawan Johnson had foot surgery,
but he played in the last preseason game.
Jimmy Graham has sniped 4 touchdowns on 7 targets last
year is gone. So you're getting like, and then
frankly, Alvin Kamara's going to get way too much work as a
running back. I'm not really taking Kamara.
That's not really what I'm talking about.
I'm talking about kind of playing it through like Shaheed
Juan Johnson and Derek Carr as a back door or actually stacking
it up with Olave. But it's it's one of these gross
stacks that we never got around to like pretending was was cool
and like Bryce Young was horrendous last year, like Zach
Wilson level bad. Their car's been totally fine.
There's nothing sexy about this, but I think if they, you know,
add some of these Shanahan Kubiak style, you know,
offensive, offensive tricks to to a what was really a stale
offense last year, then the Saints could, you know, be kind
of surprisingly fun. Yeah.
So yeah, I'm with you on that one.
I've struggled with how to complete the backdoor stacks
because the Saints squad receivers after Shahid are
really tricky to me. But I agree with this.
When I was looking into the pre snap motion data for an R
collected for ETR this offseason, the Saints really
stood out to me as an offense that was just so archaic, so
poorly coached last year under blanking on the the P
Carmichael. Maybe it was the Saints to see
last year, whoever it was. Yeah, Carmichael.
And then the 49ers always ranked near the top of kind of anything
you look at play action rate, pre snap motion rate.
And you do have to like squint a little bit and just pretend that
Clint Kubiak is Kyle Shahan's brother or something, something
you have to make to get all the way there.
But I can see it. And I think like Derek Harris
thought of, it's so boring. These other pocket passers like
Och Curry, Jared Boff, they have been really valuable fantasy
assets. And maybe we've just thought of
Carr as really bad and boring because of the coaching he's had
the past couple years. I mean, it's been Josh McDaniels
on the Raiders and then this disastrous Saints offensive
system last year. There's a chance for the Shannon
system that we think of Derek Carr as sort of, you know, more
of the the fun pocket passer with the ceiling then he has
been thought of the past couple years.
I mean the the thing. I need a truth serum.
So the thing that makes it difficult is is doing it with
the 18th round guy because with Knicks you just do Knicks and
Estimate or Knicks and Dulcich or Knicks and Mims or Franklin
or whatever. It's a little bit harder.
I guess you could. You could at the very.
End you get it with Juwan. Kar and Juwan.
That's better to me. Like we're tacking on like when
you do some of the Broncos stuff and I like Estimae and I like
Jaleel. But you know, if I'm if I'm
doing it as a quarterback stack, I'd rather have a like a
downfield pass catcher than a running back.
And like we're guessing, we're guessing with Franklin, we're
guessing with Mims, like these guys might rotate with each
other. Like neither one could really do
much this year. Like Dejuan Johnson is going to
play a bunch. He's like pretty good and he and
he importantly plays tight end. So if you're trying to like I've
done that a bunch where you take Juan and then you tack on cars a
quarterback too. So my, my general pushback would
be this is a spot where I just expect chaos to happen in
season. Dennis Allen is like -150 to be
the first coach fired. It's just like it's, it's an,
it's a team that is just in general disarray.
So like, I think I'd buy that in.
Like, that's how the season starts.
Like Shaheed and a lot of Angewan Johnson are accounting
for like 65% of the team's targets and then Kumar is taking
like another 15%. And it's just all very
predictable. And the offense is like fairly
good, but I find it hard to map how competitive the team is in
the playoff weeks. So I it's just like, yeah, I
don't that that's more of a vibes base take.
Like, you know, the idea that like, oh, Carr is going to get
benched. I don't know if he gets benched,
but he he does like always get injured.
He's always got like a shoulder. He had two concussions last
year. Not, not his fault.
It's just, yeah. I think he could get.
Like vibes pace drafter, You're not a Saints guy.
No, 100% the vibes are terrible. The vibes are truly terrible.
Which is which is why I didn't want to have to say this
publicly, but you know, Carr, I think is at risk of getting
benched is like a he's not getting benched.
He's hurt, but he really is getting benched just so they can
see what they have in Spencer Rattler, but they they can't get
out of his contract next year. They're tied to him.
So the benching has to be like a little sneaky, which I think it
he is. You know, if this devolves,
like, they'll find a way to, you know, see what they have in a
Rattler. But in like, a lot of like
mediocre outcomes for the Saints.
He plays all the games because they have to.
They have to start him next year.
They can't get rid of him. Yeah.
And then I think Dennis Allen is going to be like, he's fighting
for his job, too. So he's not going to make the
switch to Rattler unless, unless that's what the hierarchies are
saying, like you have to do it or you'll get fired.
But he he's not like in experimentation mode at
quarterback. He needs to go 9:00 and 8:00 or
8:00 and 9:00 to save his job, probably.
So, yeah, I, I, I agree. That last question for you, Pat,
Have you tacked on any of the Saints wide receiver threes
ever, maybe on DraftKings like a Cedric Nelson or AT Perry?
No, you're not messing around with that.
I don't think I've done it once. I think my Saints, cause part of
the bet for me is that it's concentrated.
Yeah, I've taken. So I'm at 13% Shuan, 9% Shaheed,
9% alive, a 7% car, which is kind of overweight.
You know, it doesn't always get drafted.
Kendry Miller 3%, Alvin Kamara 2%.
I haven't drafted another St. in any tournament all summer.
So it it is all an underdog. But I I'm nearly positive I
haven't done it on DraftKings either.
But yeah, to me, part of the bet is that Shahid is good and he
and Olave form like a clear wide receiver tandem.
And then JA Juan is kind of soaking up the rest of the
downfield stuff. Obviously Camara is going to get
his and it's going to be gross. Got it all right, I'll go ahead
and give mine. I do want to say before we get
into that, this is neither here nor there.
McCaffrey did confirm this on Twitter.
He's listed as the starter on the week 1 depth, the official
week 1 depth chart for the computers.
So as a show, I think in victory like that, that's that seems
pretty good. That's not my take though.
My take is I'm going back into hater mode for this one.
Nothing fun here. The Colts artist universally
massively overvalued, especially the top three guys in JT
Richardson and Pittman. I I think all three of those
guys are close to some of the worst picks on the board where
they go at ADP to to me this is just like I'm not an Anthony
Richardson hater as a prospect. I was very open to him.
You just. You just.
Hate him and talk about it a lot.
You, you just you're just like, you're just like this guy.
I watched this guy's going to get benched for for Joe Flacco.
I watched him throw a pick in a preseason game.
It's Jover, Shane Stiken. I'm not a hater, but can't
commit enough crimes to keep him in the starting lineup.
Yeah, we we got. It yeah, I do think I I have
been pretty quiet about this one.
I just think we're chasing this really tiny sample of Anthony
Richardson play last year and also was was the play that
Anthony Richardson had last year like that conducive for an
offensive environment that's going to put up fantasy points
here? Here's the rankings out of 49
quarterbacks who played at least 120 plays.
Again, Richardson only small sample, he played like 130 or
something. Out of those 49 QBs, Richardson
was 45th out of 49 in completion, completion
percentage over expected. He was 38 out of 49 in PFF
passing grade, slightly better in EPA per play.
He was 20th of 49 in EPA per play.
But to me, like I'm just not buying that the Colts offense is
going to be this top 10 scoring offense like a lot of people
have it projected. And even if it is, I think
Anthony Richardson is going to soak up all the value from that
and, you know, take a bunch of scrambles and goal line carries.
They're going to hurt his pass catchers, hurt Jonathan Taylor a
ton at the goal line. I, I think I have like close to
stone 0% of Jonathan Taylor, one of the rare guys in the 1st 2
rounds that I've close to 0 of. But yeah, man, I just like, I
feel like we did this a little bit with the, the, the trail.
I'm not comparing it to Trey Lance, but we did a little bit
with the Trey Lance thing. Like what?
I know the film on Richardson looks way better than Lance, but
like, Are you sure that Anthony Richardson quarterback like a
top offense in the NFL? I'm just not not sure at all.
The pieces are priced really expensively.
So I've been playing through bounds, through Adenine,
Mitchell, Peter. But are you taking Richardson
and then getting those guys or are you?
Yeah, I, I take Richardson when he falls, but I think I only
have like 4 or 5% of them. I just think he's like priced
pretty close to his ceiling already.
Like I get the Kamani code and everything with quarterbacks,
but I feel like we're, we're like giving him that bump
already. Like we're already assuming he
makes that leap into being one of the best rushers in the NFL
and like a confident passer. And man, I don't know, I just, I
guess I. Don't know that we are if you
were to amend this take to JT and Pittman.
I mean, I, I'm on the record about Pittman, but I think the
JT side, which I, I honestly consider doing because I haven't
really drafted like JT is a bad pick, but I've not been
actually, I have, I have 5%. So I haven't gone like full
fade, but I've been kind of quietly nervous about him and I,
I just am full fading Pittman because I don't think playing
the expensive pieces of the way to do it with Richardson.
So I, I nearly agree with you, but I think Richardson himself
is a really good pick, especially now that he's like
falling into the sixth round because I at that price, I
really don't think we are pricing in him being a competent
passer plus a Komani code guy like that.
That equals to like where Hertz is going, you know, Hertz,
that's what Hertz is. So I, I think, I think there's
quite a bit of upside with, you know, from him in the sixth
round still. And I, I think he is live to do
that, you know, to especially with Shane Steiken, who I think
is a really sharp offense coordinator and head coach.
And you know, so I love playing it through AD Mitchell and Downs
stacked with Richardson, But I I am fading the other two guys.
Yeah, I mean Pittman and Jonathan Taylor, it feels like.
I don't, I've not, I have not met the person who takes them.
So that's just kind of like, I don't know.
I don't know where the people are that are taking Jonathan
Taylor and Michael Pittman at their cost.
I, I would have, I would have gotten on this Sam, this could
have been a a good player. Take one as you could have said,
Kyler Murray's already had an 11 win NFL season and averages like
5 1/2 points rushing per game in his career healthy games.
You could have just gone Kyler. Kyler Murray has done nothing to
go 25 picks after Anthony Richardson or whatever.
Wasn't that J JS truth seems? I, I believe, I believe it was.
Yeah, I I believe it was. The other angle you can play on
that Davis is the the gap between Jayden Daniels and
Anthony Richardson. If we're taking a guy who we
think is going to be a really good fantasy scorer as a rusher
and we have question marks about his passing, like why is Jayden
Daniels go? 60 picks.
That was my true CMC. Yep.
For Pete's video, my too soon take was that he should be a six
round pick, which I don't really.
Want to do but he's going to get hurt.
He's a six round pick, but he's also going to get hurt.
But I'm not really doing that because I'm terrified he's going
to get hurt. That's my juice here.
I do think we should say like the The reason I'll give like
the the counter argument to my takes Shane Stiken is by.
Shane. Stiken than than Cliff Kingsbury
is and I and I, I acknowledge that 100%.
I'm not. I'm not trying to ignore that
part of it. Also, I do think again, this
wide receiver room in Indianapolis, like you can
squint and see real upside with this wide receiver room.
If AD Mitchell hits and Josh Towns is healthy, you.
Don't even have You don't even have to squint.
As long as you're not a pencil pusher.
You already see it. Yeah.
So yeah, I've really been AD Mitchell pilled over the last
couple weeks of the offseason. I'm trying to get him even stand
alone. I'm trying to get him as much
as. I think he's a good stand,
Olympic. Yeah, especially on DraftKings.
He's still really cheap there. So yeah, I do see how this one
bites me, but I just think like people saw 50 plays of Anthony
Richardson last year and are like, I've seen enough 5th, 6th
round pick. I don't know man.
Like you can. You can the thing I quibble with
you on is the upside. I I think the upside is quite
clear that he if he is a competent passer with good
weapons and well designed offense and he runs like he
probably will because he's like Derrick Henry size and
incredibly fast and athletic, then he has the upside.
Like there's just no question to me.
But I do agree that it's, you know, it's a thin it's kind of
similar to my Trey McBride take. Like are we sure this dude is
actually good? Is it a thin resume?
Yeah. And the the last thing I'll say
on that point, like a bit of a thought experiment and I did
this on J JS spot. So apologies for people who have
to listen to me repeat this, but I do think like I, I don't have
like the simulation or numbers to back this up, but like
imagine this theoretical world where CJ Stroud, his ceiling
projection for fantasy points is 30 points and, and say also
Anthony Richardson's is 35. So I'm conceding that Anthony
Richardson's ceiling projection is 5, whatever, 10 points higher
than CJ Stroud, whatever you want it to be.
The the problem with that is when CJ Stroud hits his ceiling
in a given week, assuming that I'm stacking and I'm taking his
pass catchers, I'm way more likely to hit a ceiling at wide
receiver in my lineup if I have Stroud digs and Nico than I am
if I have. Not.
Necessarily Hitman. Well, you don't you don't think
that the the ceiling of the Texans wide receivers.
I guess it's it's all it's all cost adjusted.
So I get it. Like you need a ceiling.
Like when you take when you take Nico, if you have Nico and Dell,
that's your second and third round pick.
If you're winning this tournament in week 17, you're
getting like a lot of production out of those guys.
The fact that it's then tied to your quarterback is a nice
bonus. But like that's a that's a
given. Like you're getting at least
from one of those two players, a huge score.
Otherwise you're just not going to put up enough points.
Whereas with Richardson, you get Mitchell and Downs.
If you get like a a pretty nice score out of one of those two
guys and out of just one that's that's huge.
Like that's like a a thing that you didn't necessarily like need
to happen, but is now like making you way more live for.
You know you're still going to need the massive scores from
your early round picks, but I actually think the playing it
through the two cheap options does give you quite a bit of of
stacked ceiling with Richardson. I agree with those points.
And I think the fact that Dennis and Mitchell are pretty
attractive eight round bets, that definitely makes Richardson
way more attractive to me. But what I'm just trying to make
though, is that like even a vacuum, if Richardson projects
better than like a pocket passer that goes around him because of
how correlation works with like a pocket passer scoring and
their pass catchers versus how correlation works with Anthony
Richardson and his pass catchers.
Like Richardson can hit a ceiling and he rushed for three
touchdowns. And then you just have to hit
the uncorrelated nuts at your other wide receivers because
they didn't bring along any wide receivers.
If you hit the nuts on like CJ Stroud 40 point week or even
like a Brock Purdy 35 point week, right, Like you're going
to have really good odds of hitting the nuts with your pass
catchers. I just don't think that's true
for Richardson, for Hertz, for Lamar.
So I think there's a slight element where like the the
pocket passers in best bowl are actually like slightly better in
vacuum than the rushers if they project like close to each other
just cause of that correlational benefit in the playoff pod
weeks. That's the point I'm trying to
make though. But you you got to factor in the
cost of the receivers. Totally agree with you though.
Like if you get a good week out of downs that pick 150 or
whatever, that makes up for that, right?
So I I agree with your point. Yeah, but I mean like it
certainly applies to Pitman. Pitman's prices never made sense
to me. I, I've mixed him in a little
bit just as like a humility based exercise when he falls
into the fourth round. But I've drafted eleven 11170
teams on underdog and I have 1% Pitman.
He's just not, I mean, like, imagine hitting the absolute
nuts with Anthony Richardson in week 17 and Pitman has like 12
points. That seems like very realistic
to me, you know, and it's like your third round pick, you know,
he, I mean, 12 might be, might be high.
He could have like eight points in a Richardson smash game,
which that's where I think your point about the correlation
really comes into play. Like you're making me pay for
the correlation with Richardson. Like I'm thinking twice about
that, especially where, you know, with Pittman, I just don't
really believe that he's that much more talented than downs
and potentially not AD Mitchell if if Mitchell is emerging down
the. Strategy Mitchell.
Mitchell is the one where if he hits if, if Mitchell hits, like
he's just better, like his upside.
His 90th percentile is so much better than Pittman in my
opinion. Yeah.
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, he's like a classic boom
bust prospectomy. And I think I was probably
wrong. I, I, I had a pretty decent fade
on him through like May, June, July.
And then I watched him and won pieces in game and I was like,
oh shit, I I get this whole Haiti Mitchell thing.
So I don't know, man. He looks, he looks really fun.
Sometimes you got to put the pencil down, man.
There's. I'm not saying always the
pencils, the pencil pushing helps, but some every once in a
while you just got to be like, yeah, the pencils are not going
to help here. Yeah, as the Patriots fan, I'm
just like so pissed that we took Jalen Pulk over 80.
Minutes No Pulk is a good player.
That's fine. You're you're, you're totally
fine there I. Don't know man, I'm worried
about that one. But anyways, it's not important
to the show. I'm worried that you're worried.
I have a ton of pulk. All right.
Do you guys, do you guys want my hater one or my or my +1?
I've got a hater 1 and I've got a +1.
The the hater ones seem to get more of a reaction.
That's my. All right, my hater 1 is that
the Cincinnati Bengals are a far more fragile exercise in fantasy
football than anyone wants to acknowledge.
Burl had a quote about his hand this week.
This it's it, this is still a problem like this injury that
Burrow has to his to his I I don't even know what part of his
throwing hand or arm it is, but it's like he's like, oh, his
wrist. So I believe, I believe the
quote was something like, Oh yeah, I I've got it to a place
now to where I can really drive the ball, you know, kind of how
I used to which I'm like one it's September.
So it seems like an issue that we're talking about this in game
start in five days and. Chase has not been a camp that
is weird. Like it's just T Higgins is
leaving. T Higgins wanted to be traded
and is playing on on this franchise tag.
Now, obviously T is is massively incentivized to play well so
that he can go and get the bag from the New England Patriots.
And by the way, that how funny is that going to be when T
Higgins actually is a New England Patriot?
Yeah, that that is going to. Happen, dude.
You're not going to like that Sam T Higgins with Drake.
Maggie is going to be fun, no. I always, I'll always come
around. I originally am always
reflexively against the Patriots, Patriots moves and
then I I start coping and think they're actually good.
Like I'll, I'll figure out a way to to come around on it.
And I don't I don't want the fact that I am a known Bengal
tater to to poison this take because the reason why this is
concerning to me should be obvious to everyone, which is
that I I am the foremost Chase Brown Slappy get Chase Brown
with Jake Browning is not going to be a guy you want in fantasy.
It's going to be really, really bad.
It's going to be all Zach Moss if they have to go to the Jake
Browning offense. I just feel like getting
Burrough Burrough at quarterback 8.
I'm like, I can make an argument for I can, I can make an
argument for Jaden Daniels over him.
I can make an argument for Caleb Williams over him.
Yeah, it's fragile. And I mean I'm looking back at
some of Burroughs crazy like Burroughs 2021 season.
We do the we do the people forget neem a lot.
Burroughs 2021 season was gnarly.
I mean he was awesome. He completed 70% of his passes
on really high volume 34 touchdowns.
Now granted he did also lead the NFL in sacks, which is no one
really talks about that with Joe Burrow.
That's more of a real football take than a fantasy football
take. But basically I'm just saying we
have a quarterback with a legit throwing hand injury.
That is it. It like every doctor on all
these Twitter doctors say this doesn't go away.
He can re injure this. It's it's a very real thing and
it's like no one even cares. Yeah, I honestly haven't spent
much. Of the offseason.
Exactly. You never do.
You do this shit and you never think about it.
Yeah, I haven't. And it's AT Higgins, T Higgins's
quarterback. How do we not get here?
I got, I got to run the numbers. I'll compare Joe Burrow to T
Higgins yards for Outrun and I can give you an answer on
whether I'm on them or not. This, this is also true.
We have like no data on this because we don't have other
quarterbacks with this injury. Based on like what the the
Twitter, it's like a baseball. Injury.
Right, it's a baseball injury. Well, plus Jamar Chase hasn't
signed yet like today, so. Yeah, OK.
That's what I wanted. I wanted to talk about that
angle too 'cause I'm starting to do some waiver stuff like isn't
Yoshi Voss? He's a generally there's
opportunity. Right now.
And, and Burton is going to get dropped.
Burton is going to get dropped in this run by a lot of people
as well. So that's something to, to keep
your feelers out. But yeah, I I think Yoshi Voss
FFPC, you can spend 15% or something like that.
Yeah, I mean, people are saying he's this year's Puka Nakua.
They both played high school football in Hawaii, I think.
I don't know, Just connect the dots.
I actually don't even know if that's true.
I think Puka Nakua is maybe Hawaiian, but is from Utah.
I wish I'd looked that up before I said it, but they both got
Utah. Connected David is really going.
Off on you, Huka. Is.
Is really rubbing off. Huka is is Samoan I believe.
Oh shit OK Pacific island. They both have Pacific Islander
connections. Yeah, that's not tenuous at all.
No, that's a. That's a pretty strong
connection. Yeah, I, I, yeah, I just like,
I, I think the, it's like if I'll just say this, if this
injury happened to Pat, I would want like daily updates on how
his wrist was doing. I'd want to know how his rehab
was going. I'd want to know how he feels.
I I would, I would be like Pat, I will do you can have my arm
like I would be, I would not be able to sleep if this injury
happened to Pat. So I just feel it's.
Friendship. No one's.
Talking about it, Yeah, You're welcome.
You're welcome. Yeah, You wouldn't be able to
write the legendary upside piece with this injury, is what I'm
saying. It's actually like, I think, I
think I'm running a little behind my typing speeds
decreased. Exactly.
No.
I. Also.
Wish we'd asked for your your your positive take.
Is this one just makes me sad. I don't really have a lot of
pushback. My my +1 is that I'm worried I
spent the offseason stacking the wrong AFC Super Bowl contender
that actually just doing one Texans wide receiver in Stroud
and like 25% of your drafts might be the way to win.
They they very they they almost 100% have a better week 17 game
and they haven't won or proven shit, so they are much more
likely to be trying to pad Stroud's numbers in the regular
season than the Chiefs. I do think the Stroud situation
was the ultimate like IQ bell curve take this year like the
the mid IQers were like, Oh no, he doesn't project that much
better than other pocket passers and the low IQ and high IQ or
does CJ stradgo Burr We'll find out if.
It I, I was mid IQ for about, I was mid IQ for like 3 months and
I really changed my tune. Like literally like August, like
third. I was like, we got to, we got,
we got to change this. It's it's not going to work.
Yeah, yeah. I ended up just slightly
underweight, but I I have, you know, a lot of all three guys
and, you know, made a point to stack them.
So I feel good. Yeah.
I feel like I was in one of the two.
I was either high IQ or low IQ. Yeah, that's that's generally
where you want it. Mid, mid IQ is is more
derogatory than low IQ. I think most of the.
Time it is. You're much more likely to win
at fantasy football being a a mid a low IQ than a mid IQ
player. Mid mid IQ you are dead in
fantasy football. You can't win.
Yeah. No, that's that's 100% true.
All right, we'll go to our roster construction truth serum
takes. I'll go first here.
I haven't gone first yet. I've got some slides to show
here bring the show back to its roots.
But my roster construction truth serum take is that elite type
end in a specific way that I'm going to define it.
Is is bad this year and. Have have have fun staying poor,
Sam. And at the same.
Time. This this is the worst part of
the big the the tight end tight end.
The low end tight end ones are the nuts.
This year I'll delve a little bit into Cats player take, but
let's just do a little bit of arbitrage playing of the elite
tight ends this year. This is David and Joku as
arbitrage Trey McBride number one.
I'll say that Trey McBride never played a game after, you know,
half his face was burnt off and showed up in a mask and and
played the game like three days later.
So he's never done that, but everyone loves to talk about
this this homestretch for Trey McBride where he was allegedly
so good he was breaking fantasy weeks 8 on absolutely dominated
once Zach irks went out. How about David and Joku over
that same stretch? Just being better than him had a
higher targets per outrun 28% to McBride's 27% higher PPR points
per game 16 first McBride's 15. People like to call Njoku like a
screen merchant or whatever because they want to get the
ball in his hands and let him do fun stuff.
After the catch. You have the same aid as Trey
McBride. So I don't see people throwing
around the screen merchant allegations against Trey
McBride. I think the the David and Joku
upside pace is not being baked into his ADP at all.
I think I think it is. I think it is being baked in
because his quarterback has an injured shoulder and doesn't
want to play football and Joe Flacco is not there, although
Jameis Winston is there. Now if you think that Jameis is
going to be playing quarterbacks in the money weeks, then I will
grant this, but I I am not afraid of David Njoku on a
Deshaun Watson quarterback team personally.
I just think the whole thing with like Njoku that people are
missing is that like you pretend that the only reason David and
Joku was good is because of Joe Flacco.
Like to me, oh, it's just that. He got the ball.
No, to to me, the take away is that the reason he's good is
'cause he has a really smart offensive coach and offensive
system. And if this Deshaun Watson thing
fails, I think they can bring in Jameis.
And like I, I, I do, I am a believer that if Deshaun his, if
his arm is just toast, they're not going to be rolling them out
all year. They're they're going to move
on. You are about to.
You are about to learn, NFL buddy.
Yeah, dude, I I think what whether it's Deshawn like says
he can't play or the team says go fake an injury, you're out.
They're not doing 17 games of like Deshawn Watson with no
harm. But anyways, that that's just a
point of the second part of this take is another another one that
people hate. Jake Ferguson.
No, this one, this one, I'm on board with this one.
I I think is is very good. I I thought about doing Ferguson
being a good pick, which I got bullied off of early in the
offseason, but we we had him ahead of EDP in the rankings
pretty much all season. I ended up having a hard time
drafting because I just took so much Bowers in the end, but I
think Ferguson might be good guys.
Yeah, that's that's the thing that I don't get is that like
the the Dalton Kincaid upside thesis, I don't disagree with
like I think there's a chance he takes the jump in year 2.
But Jake Ferguson, like you look at the stats and he was either
better or identical to Kincaid. And like all these metrics that
we love to look at for evaluating talent.
And also it's not like he doesn't have a target ceiling.
Like again, who who is the person in in Dallas catching
passes after CD Lamb. I get that lamb like
theoretically caps his target ceiling because he can't be like
the alpha wide receiver one there, but he can't be the clear
number 2 when Brandon cooks Jalen Tolbert like those are the
wide receivers running routes against him.
I don't really get why there's not more excitement for that.
And again, he's he's in his third year in the league.
He's like six months older than Dalton Kincaid.
It's not like there's some massive difference in these guys
ages. So I don't get why the the
upside isn't priced into his ADP like it is for Kincaid.
But I'll, I'll let you guys because.
His name is Jake Ferguson. Yeah, he's on a first round.
He's a. Fourth round pick from Stanford.
Now if you if you segmented these numbers out in the non
Knox games, I'm going to guess Kincaid's look much, much
better. Yeah, I know they.
Do they probably do but his like stretch run was like tight end
10 last year I think. That's I, I don't, I don't think
Dalton Kincaid is that good. I'll say if you're defining
elite tight end as I I think Kelsey and Andrews and and to a
smaller extent McBride and Knox are the way to play tight end
this year and the other ones the the in my mind the two elite
tight ends are dating Taylor Swift and have type 1 diabetes
and everyone else is is pretending that is my opinion.
Yeah, so. So here's my articulation.
That's how I played it, how I. Define elite tight end and I'm
in on healthy managers, though I won't like bait that too much.
But my point is that the tight end 7 through 12 that includes
Kittle, Ingram, Ferguson, Bowers and Joking Goddard are going to
be better. Both advancement rate picks and
weekly sealing picks in the playoffs from a.
Well, Bowers, Bowers, I'll give you.
Yeah, so, so for me, the the real targets for me are I'm not
really in in on Ingram or Garner too much to be honest.
But Kittle, Ferguson, Bowers in Joku I think are the way to play
tight end this year. And I get historically this like
tight end 7 to 12 range has not been a good bet, but that's
because the elite tight ends used to be prime Travis Kelsey,
prime George Kittle. We don't have those guys from
now anymore. Like there's not that big of a
gap between the Laporta McBride, Kincaid and the Bowers Ferguson
and Joku in my opinion. And I think the two by twos of
just taking the running backs and wide receivers where like
these top 6 high ends go and then playing chicken a little
bit, taking a Ferguson, taking a Bowers, taking in Joku.
That is the best tight end strategy in 2024 over the elite.
The elite tight end strategy as defined as a top six tight end.
Yeah, I mean, you're doing a little bit of, you know, getting
putting Kittle in the second group is kind of working to your
advantage there. He he goes right behind Pitt,
but. It's definitely.
It's a semantic. It's a semantics thing, like I
think elite if you. Yeah, it was a top seven this
year, I I think. Yeah.
To me, I think it's a top. There were seven guys going in
the top 65. Yeah, go ahead.
Sorry. No, sorry, My Wi-Fi is causing
issues. I'm just saying that I think the
elite tight end range extends to tight end 11 this year.
To David and Joku and Bowers. We're going to watch.
You're telling me we're going to watch Kyle Pitts on an NFL
football field in Week 1 and Brock Powers in Week 1 and be
like, yeah, Pitts is the guy I want.
I'm. I don't know man.
I I think that's like. To me.
That could flip so quick. I could flip so quick.
I do tend to think that the ceilings on some of the early
tight ends aren't as high as, you know, we're we're used to
getting when we pay elite tight end prices.
That's why part of this I am a little bit nervous about McBride
is that like, I don't expect him to be the number one target
earner on his own team down the stretch.
I don't expect Laporta to be the number one target earner on his
team ever. So his ADP always felt weird to
me. I took some just 'cause I think
he's really good. But like Davis, I played this
mostly through Kelsey, who's my fourth highest drafted tight end
and Andrews, who's my second highest drafted tight end.
So those those two and then pits, I actually did get
overweight on I I started kind of underweight and started to
get pretty nervous just about what a massive quarterback and
offensive environment upgrade it is in some ways, I think just
like moving him around the formation, like doing more
interesting stuff like he's he's a deep he was Desmond Ritter's
deep threat that that alone is a problem.
And then he was winning an Arthur Smith offense, which is
such a huge problem too. So Pitts I, I kind of came
around on is as a pretty damn strong pick.
But yeah, I'm, I'm kind of nervous about Kincaid.
In addition to McBride and, you know, LaPorte, I took all of
these guys at Kincaid. I ended up at 5%.
I was overweight at one point. I kind of cooled off.
So I I'm open to the point, but I think like, aren't you none of
these guys you make you make you nervous because a few of them,
like three of them specifically, I think really do have huge
ceilings, Andrews, Kelsey and Pitts.
Yeah, this for me, I struggled with how to frame this because
to me that there's guys in both of these categories that I'm
targeting and fading like I'm kind of fading Evan Ingram and
I'm kind of targeting Andrews and to a lesser extent Kelsey
and McBride. So it's not, it's not as binary
as tight end one through 6. I'm fading tight end 7 through
12. I'm I'm targeting.
It's not that binary. I am definitely worried about
the upside of some of these elite tight ends.
I have been taking all of them to some degree.
I don't think I have hard fades even like Pitts or Kincaid, who
I think I'm the strongest against on the left group, I
still think I have like 3-4 percent of.
So it's not, this isn't as strong as my my Colts fade, to
be clear. But yeah, man, I just think that
like a lot of the the tight end research that people look at
historically, that's like, oh, you got to get one of the top
four guys. Those are just like Rob
Gronkowski and Travis Kelsey stats.
They're not like some like, I just think this position goes.
So doesn't Travis Kelsey have have some interest?
In that doesn't, so don't Travis Kelsey doesn't.
Doesn't he count? No, OK, that's fair.
But this is not prime Travis Kelsey.
Like, let's let's be honest, this is not prime Travis Kelsey
anymore. Like he's not the same.
He. Was pretty damn good the last
time we saw him. He would.
He was just the engine of the offense during a Super Bowl run.
Yeah, I just think it used to be way more.
Obvious you want to talk, you want to talk about mid IQ.
Mid IQ is Travis Kelsey is only going to run 69% of the routes
because they're saving him for the I I fear.
I fear that might be a a mid a mid I.
Kelsey, Kelsey. Still, Kelsey is the low IQ,
high IQ. Yeah.
Yeah, they thought his season was maybe over.
The night before the Lions game there was a report that they
thought they were going to put him on season ending IR and he
still finished tight end too. But fade him in the 4th, that's
definitely going to. Work but fade him.
But fade him. But fade him after Michael
Pittman and Sam Laporta. Yeah, I I got no strong push
back again. I'm I'm, I'm taking Kelsey.
So maybe I should have just presented this is like, here are
my tight end targets. Here are my tight end fades.
But this was This is a cleaner way to do it I.
I stand, I stand in opposition. I think the left side of the
board is better than the right side of the board.
If I could trade Sam Laporta for Brock Bowers, then I would.
I would. I would side bet the left side
of the board on the right side of the board at like -115 for
the elite tight ends is more likely to be like.
I don't know, I guess points added to the average fantasy
roster or something sacrilegious would know the best way to score
it but I I would I disagree in general.
So much of the elite tight end thesis really comes down to like
that these guys are much better bets for spike weeks in the play
offs than the other guys. And that's why I do think Bowers
is a really good one to highlight.
And Kittle, I mean you. Definitely.
But the the crazy wide receiver pricing.
In your your batch. The the crazy wide receiver
pricing makes the tight ends better because instead of taking
Travis Kelsey over the wide receiver 18, you're taking
Travis Kelsey over Terry Mclaurin.
Like sure. Like, I just give me the give me
the elite tight end every time over the wide receiver 31.
I just think there's huge, even though that I agree that like
Mclaurin T Higgins, like some of these guys that go around the
tight ends here, it's not like the biggest opportunity cost
compared to what it was in past years.
But it's still like within Joku and Bowers, the two by two is
like, I don't know, Khalil Shakur and Sam Laporta versus
Tank Dell and David and Joku. Like I just I haven't heard it
articulated why Laporta McBride like their upside cases are so
much better than Bowers and Joku.
Like I just. Well, Sam, the biggest reason,
the biggest reason is that historically.
These are the most overdrafted players in fantasy.
Effectively. It's like, and you we could cut.
I could point out a reason why Kittle's not being overdrafted,
why Ingram is a bit like I can see the pro and con for each of
these players. But his like all of the work
that like JJ and and Reeves have done on tight end is always, we
always do this. We sigh up ourself into, you
know, the tight end 9 is a pretty good pick this year.
And then the tight end 9 is always like the literal worst
guy in the pool. Evan Ingram is like the poster
boy for this. It's like very clearly not the
number one option on his own team.
Probably not the number two option on his own team by the
end of the season if Brian Thomas is any good.
Probably not the number three, honestly.
Yeah, I mean, he honestly might not be kind of a long career
where he hasn't really special. He's been fine over a long
career. That would apply to Ninjoku as
well. I think those guys are kind of
the the classic, you know, we we get excited about them because
they came off a season where they got targeted a lot and we
assume it's going to happen again and it doesn't like and
Joku, I mean, Judy going there I think is a big deal.
Like he very easily could see a lower target share just because
they now have a secondary. I mean, they're second one
receivers like Elijah Moore and now he might not even be over
like Cedric Tillman now. So I think Judy and Amari Cooper
will be the number one and two targets there.
And so, you know, that has potential hurting Joku.
Plus he didn't produce with the quarterback that will have this
season. So those two are, But you know,
Bowers is not a typical guy in this range.
Bowers is very much an. Bowers is like and the type.
Of that we do want to make. Yeah, Yeah.
I just think already Ritter at the .1 more time that I think I
really like the work that like JJ and Reeves do on this like
market stuff. I'm just really skeptical of
like the tight end market trends because it literally is like 3
or 4 players over the last decade that have been dominating
tight end scoring. It's like Antonio Gates, Gronk,
Travis Kelsey and last year was one of the worst seasons on
record for elite Titan scoring. So I think it's just way less.
It's way less clear now who like top two or three guys.
It used to be so clear that it was Gronk and Kelsey as time 1
and then two. I think this orders to get like
massively shaken up next year because we just don't really
know. I think you can make convincing
pieces for a lot of these guys in this group.
So, you know, just like the the market kind of rookie tight ends
never produced in fancy. We threw that market out trend
in the trash this year. I think we're throwing out the,
you know, the tight end 7:00 to 11:00 group that doesn't have
upside that point out that market trend after the season.
That's that's my question. It obviously could be wrong that
that's how I see things. I I see your point, but I
disagree with it. I, I I That's fair brackets.
Extremely. Derogatory.
It's a it's a, it's an all time derogatory.
That's fair for me. Yeah, OK.
Like I I think what? You're saying derogatory?
Your your logic I agree with. I think you're approaching this
intelligently and I think it's a good point, and I honestly the
main reason I hope you're wrong is that my bags would be dead.
My bags would be dead. Well, other than Bowers.
And I just want to say like I have I'm pretty Kelsey.
I'm party Andrews again. There's one there.
It's not like super binary how I'm doing this.
To me. It's really like, yeah, Florida
Kinkaid hits upside theses even fried a little bit are like not
that much clear than Kittle Ninjoku Bowers, Ferguson to me
that that's the real take. Throw out fucking Evan Ingram,
throw out fading Mark Andrews and Travis Kelski.
That that's like really how I'm pushing it.
Yeah, I, I guess what I would just push back on is like the
market trends thing. I do think just from looking at
running backs, like we see this a lot with running backs.
You know, when Gretsch talked about the dead zone years back,
one of the things he was noting is like, you know, when a guy is
actually like projected for a pretty good role and we're not
that excited about him, That's that's a sign like that signal
that the, you know, the talent level, the upside level is not
really what we want. And I do think that applies to
David and Joe Goo, to Evan Ingram, to Ferguson to a degree.
You know, we're we're saying, yeah, I think this guy's like
the number two, maybe the number three, but but hopefully the
number 2 on his team. And he's pretty solid player,
but he's not that good. And so I think you're getting.
And we know from running back that that that's provide a ton
of signals. So I guess I'll just push back
on like kind of the all right, our ability to price these tight
ends, I think fits in with a larger trend of our ability to
price out other stuff too. Makes sense.
Last word on this. George Kittle is the highest
exposure guy. So that's that's really how I'm.
Playing with it well, famously. That's how I can get you guys to
agree with me a little. Bit, yeah, famously from this
show, but Kittle until we took him, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, I I need. I wish I had more Kittle.
I I didn't prioritize Kittle this year.
I like a lot of wide receivers going on the 6th now.
I, you know, I like I've just taken my receivers in the 5th
trying to stay in structure and all that stuff.
And then pits. I was like, I'm, I'm light on
pits and it's scaring the hell out of me.
So I'm going to take more of him.
But it left me where I'm actually a little underweight on
Kittle. I really hate it.
I think that of all of the
things you said, prioritizing George Kill in the sixth round
is is, I think most likely to be an absolute smash.
All right, I'll give it to you, Pat.
Per year roster construction truth serum take.
All right. So I thought you were going to
attack 0 running back, but I'm actually going to attack it
slightly in a very, very narrow way.
But we are, I think, looking at, as we do the final drafts, like
if you're entering drafts right now, then especially in anything
that's been open, you know, that's still open, like the 555,
I've been doing this and, and, and stuff like that.
So this might not apply to, to everything.
And I would just say it applies more to DraftKings than
underdog. But we're, we've been in this
environment where like people have really felt that they had
to had to kind of get their wide receiver firepower, like sharp
drafters, Like I got to make sure I'm not getting locked out
of receiver, getting your three wide receivers to start, which I
do a ton. But like especially now at the
end of draft season where we are starting to see some wide
receivers fall. We are starting to get like Vlad
Mcconkey in the eighth round. We have wide receivers we can
take at the end of the 7th. Now.
Is it the highest upside way to play it?
Like I'm wondering if. I should just sacrifice like,
no. And this was mine, Crane.
You stole mine. The well, maybe I'll leave you a
little carve out here if but, but the if you're trying to just
advance, I think 0 running back is still good.
I don't hate it despite what's scrolling on the screen right
now. I really don't hate it.
I've drafted a ton of 0 running back teams, but I did a team
last night where I took Garrett Wilson, Jameer Gibbs, Travis
Kelsey. This is on DraftKings, Patrick
Mahomes. So that's one wide receiver
through 4 rounds, but I grabbed elite onesies and an elite
running back. And then I I took I got Calvin
Ridley in the 5th. I took fat Keenan in the 6th,
played for a little of that PPRI got Hollywood Brown in the 7th
to pair with Mahomes, and I got Ladd Mcconkey in the 8th.
So that's five wide receivers through 8.
So I'm like, I think let's get a little weird.
Let's get a little weird when it to closeout draft season, we got
into the groove of, you know, making sure you got 3 through 5,
making sure you got 4 through 7, grabbing that 5th wide receiver
a little earlier than everybody else.
Maybe. But the ADPS are changing enough
where I think we can like let's I'm experimenting with like 11
wide receiver through 4, you know, doing like McCaffrey and
Lamar Andrews with one wide receiver in the second.
Like I'm, I'm trying to pull that stuff off because I think
if you are able to like get there, that's where you end up
having like these teams that are going to be like, no one was
even attempting to build these teams.
We were all like trying to stay on track.
So your sharpest competition might not really have it.
It's not really how I built all summer.
But as we close out drafts, I am trying to get a little some of
these like really weird. One wide receiver through four
teams in the portfolio. So mine is kind of like that.
Mine was, we just went a little overboard on the wide receiver
stuff of like, so if you start your draft with five wide
receivers, you probably don't need 8.
I'm just going to guess you probably don't need eight.
You probably have much greater needs at running back at tight
end, particularly if you are passing on the elite cadre of
tight ends that Sam is against. And I'm for I and I, obviously
you're talking about the rhythm thing.
I mean, yeah, the 25, the 2583. You post that screenshot in a
Discord and everyone's like, everyone's like, oh, like, oh,
just for a few. Drafts at the end to get Weird
Sam, not for an entire summer. Well, mine is mine is
forward-looking. My take is forward-looking.
I think we see a pushback in Basketball Mania 6 and next year
where running backs come back up where it's not you're you're not
looking at the board and you know, through 2 rounds, 20 wide
receivers have gone. I think we see one.
I think we see one of these young tight ends come up and be
a top 15 pick. I don't know if it's Kincaid, I
don't know if it's McBride. Maybe Laporta scores 13
touchdowns. Feel pretty confident it won't
be 35 year old Travis Kelsey. But you know, no Stranger
Things. And so if that's my take, I
built backwards on that and it's it goes, OK, so how do we get
there? Well, one, it would be the guy
who I keep sticking on and we maybe have never said his name
in the history of of ADP chasing.
Travis Etienne is like the least discussed player in fantasy.
Football. Yeah, he.
Is who has no competition. Like I'm sorry, if tanks Bigsby
is your competition You have you have the same amount of
competition that Jonathan Taylor does in in that backfield,
right? Like literally none.
I considered my positive truth take serum.
Another one I considered was Trevor Lawrence is who all of
the film Bros say he is and he actually just like smashes this
year and finishes like 4th in. I could totally.
See that MVP voting and which which brings ETN along with him.
You know, ETN scores like 15 touchdowns, catches 55 passes is
just like, awesome. I think Kenneth Walker is like
the one running back you're allowed to say you like if
you're in the ship chasing Cabal, everyone's like, Oh yeah,
Kenneth Walker. I mean, obviously.
He's not from that. I still don't like him.
How about, how about, how about Rashad White just not getting
benched for the 185 lbs scat back from Oregon who's never had
to break a tackle before in his life and he just, he just gets
300 touches again, There are a lot of ways this is kind of more
of a of a like what keeps me up at night?
Like what? What Like because obviously I
don't have a ton of these players but I see and I disagree
with this comment. I actually am excited about ETN.
I don't really care that Etn's results were poor last year.
My base take is I still think ETN is an above average and
efficient football player. It really depends like the
running back metrics, it depends what you look at and it's so
hard to look at running back skill in a single stat.
But missed tackles forced for attempt has been one that
consistently shows signal and Etn's great in that like he
didn't grade out Austin and some of the other stuff that people
like at but. He grid up horribly and rush ads
are. Expected which I think.
My favorite of a bunch he's. Been a bit of a blind spot.
Yeah, he's been in a blind spot for me.
Am I cutting it up? Sounds like I am.
You're you're, you're in it. You are OK.
It's the it's it's. Rashad White's been the guy
that's made me nervous, see. Rashad White doesn't.
Make me nervous. He makes me I took him on a in a
555 yesterday. It's kind of an anchor RB, but
in the fifth round because you know, at PPR, I I do think like
kind of Camara esque where he just like he just gets there on
on volume, like you're saying like no one, no one's able to
challenge him. So but yeah, I mean, I I've
faded Rashad White pretty hard, but that he makes me more
nervous than ETN just because of the price.
Etns like moved up in price a bit and I I don't, I just think
the opportunity cost is too high.
Yeah. I think I mean the, the other
thing that happens though is, is it turns out the cabal was right
the entire time and it's just every team that gets to week 17
is, is just I is, is completely identical.
We we get to week 17 and it's a bunch of Stroud stacks with
Jalen Warren and Brock Bowers at like Brock Bowers and Jalen
Warren are 65% owned in the finals because because every 0
wider 0 running back slappy love those guys.
Like definitely possible. Yeah.
The other thing that I think. Sounds great for me.
Yeah. The other thing that's funny at
like wide receiver that that changes so quickly when we get
into the season is I think over the offseason, over the summer,
there's this perceived Cliff at wide receiver, you know, at at
like the 80s or 90s, like maybe it was the Bateman line last
year. It's like the Jameson Williams
line. This.
I, I would call it, I would call it the DeAndre Hop with the when
it goes from Hopkins to Sutton, you start to go, oh, I don't
know how I feel about that. Exactly so that that's.
Like I would put it earlier, I, I it's like Jameson to me.
Jameson or Jameson? Bryan Thomas, junior, maybe?
Yeah, but that's kind of like the perception is in in the
offseason, but then once the season starts, it's like 10 wide
receivers. I was.
Going to say the the waddle then becomes the line becomes Jalen
Waddle. You know, it's yeah, yeah.
Like rest of them, like it's like 10 wide receivers that are
putting over, I don't know, 15 PPR points.
And then it's really huge, flat tier.
And we'll find out that there's zero difference between Josh
Palmer and Terry Mclaurin or or something along those lines,
right? Like Mclaurin's upside is better
than Palmer's. But once like the cards are
played and we see how it plays out, there's actually going to
be a really flat tier of wide receivers that starts much
earlier than like the eighth round.
It's like the third or fourth round.
Like last year this happened with T Higgins, Devonta Smith
and Jalen Waddle. There was no difference between
them and Jacoby Myers who you got in like the tenth round.
Like not saying like process wise it was bad to take those
guys early, but that's just kind of how it played out once the
the cards were down. So that's something where I
think like there's something to your point, Pat, where like I
think the correction on 0 RVI think it's actually probably
right that in the first two or three rounds, we're smart to be
a really wide receiver heavy. But I think maybe where we get
it wrong is like really undervaluing the tight ends,
quarterbacks and running backs and rounds like 4 through 10 and
we shouldn't be drafting Terry Mclaurin like in the fifth
round. You know, guys like that I think
are maybe the ones that like are most overpriced relative to
other positions. Well, one of the things to your
point about like the Bateman line, one of your things that I
really do struggle with in fantasy and I feel like I
probably didn't do it all that well this year either, is like
there's certain players that you find yourself taking because the
market is sort of boxing you into those players.
This was like Bateman this I think would you know, Bateman
and Burks I liked last year, but they were, you know, I partly I
was like, and I got to take these guys because if I don't,
the wide receivers dry up. I was wrong about them, but I
was also wrong about when the wide receivers dried up.
We had Nico Collins sitting there after those guys.
So the wide receiver didn't dry up at all.
I mean, the the degree to which we're going to be wrong is
insane. Yeah.
This year, I think if I had to kind of say where is that part
of the draft, I think it's probably like the fifth round
where we were take. I was taking like early fifth
round Keenan Allen. You had Jaden Daniels, not Jaden
Reed going there. Calvin Ridley was going in the
5th for a lot of of the summer, which I, I wasn't really in on
that one. But like I took a ton of Xavier
worthy in the 5th, which I feel fine about.
But in part I did it because it's like, oh, I got to stay
ahead at wide receiver. I can't fall behind.
And what if like not, you know, what if basically that was
impossible? What if all those wide receiver,
those fifth round wide receivers like Mclaurin are just like
overpriced And the move was to pivot, get an elite quarterback,
which I have plenty of and I've got the tight ends and I've so I
mixed it up. I think I did a better job of
like not letting the market just box me to that.
But I certainly have a fair amount of Mclaurin and you know,
some Pickens and Kirk and Keenan Allen and all those guys that
we're not like super excited about as potential breakouts in
the fifth round. They're just like helping us
fill weeks at wide receiver. But like, I don't like, am I
playing for floor? Is that me just playing for
floor too much instead of like, well, let me grab guys who I
think can break out at whatever other position and be like huge
league winners and then I can, like, backfill with Tyler
Lockett and Rasheed Shaheed and like, do that.
I don't have probably enough of those bills.
Yeah, that's interesting. Like what if you just say
starting in round six, you just took your favorite targets at
like, like you just pulled up Jalen Warren to the 6th, Raheem
Moser to the 7th, whoever, I'm making up players.
But what if you just said fuck it I'm pulling up my favorite
running back targets for this range.
I don't care that they go 20 spots later in a DPI.
Want. Just just to get them on the
same roster. Yeah, I want three of them that
have just one of them or something like that.
I think that's interesting and maybe that's how ADP corrects
next year that we'll see a lot more running backs go from like
fifties, 60s, seventies, 80s, still really wide receiver heavy
in the first couple rounds, but like more of a pull up of the
running backs after that. I think it's possible things
shake out that way. I think we get the quarterbacks
higher next year. I think Mahomes goes higher, I
think Allen goes higher, I think Hertz goes higher.
If you know, we potentially get Richardson going higher.
Richardson will go much higher, much lower.
And yeah, I think, I think that's to me, I mean, I actually
think I know Peach Street's term take was that elite quarterback
isn't a good mood, but I, I think that these prices, it's
pretty damn interesting. And I, I don't know that we get
the opportunity to take them again at like, you know, fifth
round prices, you know, fourth round prices.
So I've been trying. That's one way.
Like when I get weird, it's often for a stack.
It's often for like, I'm trying to get more Mahomes, Kelsey.
I'm trying to get as much Lamar Andrews as I can this year.
So if I come out of the 1st 4 rounds with like one or, or even
2 wide receivers, I'd like to have three.
But if it's if it's one, it's almost always because I did, you
know, like an Allen Kincaid would be another one around four
or five where I'm light on wider see if I have two through 5, but
I got I get the elite quarterback with the elite tight
end. That to me is like what?
That is the sort of the opposite of what I'm talking about, where
the market's making me do something.
That's me going, what is the market giving me this year that
it usually doesn't? And it's an elite quarterback
stacked with his #1 weapon who is a tight end.
And in all three cases, you have that upside.
And if you have to get a little weird at wide receiver to make
it happen, I think we we should definitely try it out at least.
Well, we're all gonna end up being running back slappies next
year anyways because Ashton GT is gonna be a second round pick
to some offense we really like, and we're gonna make him a
second round pick in fantasy. Maybe a first round pick
honestly. Dude we need a better running
back classes. This running back class coming
out is a great one. We like think about how like the
Dalvin Cook, you know, Alvin Kamara, you know, all those that
group like like Alvin Cook's like still signing contracts,
like that group is hanging around.
It's like we just have not had that much talent.
You know, we've had some really high end talents enter the
league. But like the depth at running
back, I think is is worse. Like the talent depth at running
back in the NFLI think is worse than it has been in years past.
And that's one reason we're having trouble drafting these
guys. Or like there's got like I'm
excited about Jonathan Brooks, but he's coming off 20.
See, I'm excited about Jonathan Warren's Warren, but he's in a
committee. Like there's, it's tough to, to
make the talent based cases for. I just don't think it goes as
deep. So I guess I would sort of, I,
I'm less worried about the running back part of this when
I'm, when I'm taking my receivers early than actually
the, the onesie part of it because I think the the running
back player pool isn't just isn't as good as it was like 3
years ago or whatever. Yeah, why I'm, I'm telling you
like it's it's about the game is gonna change.
Like there, there are like five NFL starters, like five guys who
I think are all better than Ken Walker are coming in next year
and and probably 2 wide receivers who are neighbors
level maybe maybe three, maybe 3 honestly.
McMillan. That's the guy everyone's hyping
up now to Toria McMillan. I don't know how to prance.
It and and Burden and Burden. McMillan got all the headlines
because he just had a billion touchdowns.
But but Burden might be better than him.
Yeah. Who's else gonna get Guy?
That's McMillan. McMillan.
Yeah, we also got robbed at
running back over the past five years.
Like I think if it's ran bad like ETN had the Liz Frank
injury, Dobbins Akers, Achilles injuries, Javante multi ligament
knee tear. Even Bruce Bruce who was a hit
also tore up his knee. Jonathan Brooks best prospects
in this class tore up his knee. Like it's, I think it's been a
combination of like some structural things where running
backs, like top athletes are probably playing running back a
little bit less than they used to because of the money and
everything, but also that you've just gotten unlucky with
injuries to be. Honest and and and Braylon Allen
went to the wrong team. Braylon Allen Braylon Allen is a
cowboy Braylon Allen is a fourth round pick to the Cowboys.
If they didn't trade that pick for Trey Lance, where would we
be taking Braylon Allen in a Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott,
Braylon Allen backfield Right now it's.
Going to seem like a bit you'd be a ninth round pick.
Higher, higher, really higher. We could read the guy who out
carried Rico Dowdle at South Carolina is a regional sales
manager for Coca-Cola dude. And he's a, he's a ninth round
pick. Like we could, we could push
Braylon out up higher. All right, I promise you we
could push Braylon out up higher.
It's funny you say that because. Oh, you're right, you're right.
You are correct. He would go higher.
When I was, I was going through this exercise and getting all
the closing line value takes and I, I just caught some snippets
of what we said throughout the offseason, but I had this Rico
Dowdle take in like February or March and I was like, look, if
the, the Cowboys don't draft running back and don't sign
anyone at running back, Rico Dowdle is going to go in like
the 80s. And that just never, no one ever
cared. No, no one ever cared that the
Cowboys didn't add anything. They literally just never.
Cared I I drafted a ton of Rico Dowdle.
Like it was just very difficult to get people excited about him.
It's a. It's a.
He's my highest drafted player on underdog.
Yeah, he's warned. He's tough, man, Yeah.
It's a it's actually it's a it's AP Ryan thing too.
Like he he should have Dowdell should have went up even higher
when P Ryan avoided going there in my opinion.
Like P, Ryan is much more of an impactful guide for fantasy than
Dalvin Cook. Oh yeah.
Well, I don't, I don't know. I mean, I think people often
underestimate the importance of practice, you know, and having
Dalvin Cook out there on the field, you know, playing scout
team, running back for the defence is really going to help
Dallas's defence, which is honestly underrated based on the
Dalvin Cook signing. I thought you had an earnest
stake there, Grant you, you really got you almost gotten,
really. Fun.
I do, I do. Dalvin Cook is is washed.
Dalvin Cook is so washed. He is.
You know, I think honestly,
Royce Freeman would have been a bigger concern to Rico Dowdell
and. Dalvin, listening to Sean, I
agree with you. Royce Freeman.
Royce Freeman was was not that bad when he played last year.
He wasn't. Listening to Sean earnestly tell
Ben Gretch to put Dalvin Cook in the queue on an episode of
Stealing Bananas, I was like, I don't even know what I'm
listening to right now. If this feels and I feel, I feel
betrayed. I I was so confused.
Well, he, he put Roy Springer in the queue of our of our main
event. Yeah, so.
Yeah. The thing, the thing that you
have to give to Sean is predicting his opinions on
things is like, like some analysts, I can kind of predict
it's impossible to deal with what they're going to say with
Sean. No, he he zigs.
Where did that he? Dig I have no idea.
It's it's incredible. I I love that he zigs.
Yeah, like he like he was out on Pollard last year.
I you could, I would have bet 100 bucks.
He was like, oh love. And he was like, I don't know.
And he and. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah. All right, so that'll do it.
For hopefully he's wrong about that.
Yeah, he's wrong. He's wrong about that.
I'll please, please, Sean, just just be wrong about that.
I'll tell us. It's all just this one.
Yeah. Davis, your serum take, to be
clear, was you're going along with Crane.
So we're we're done on the roster.
Instruction my my troop serum was basically just like I like.
What if the slappies have gone too far?
Yeah. I think it would be very funny
if IF0 running back next year is like, yeah, it's a great advance
rate tactic, but does it have, you know?
Is it? Really.
The high upside West? Yeah, it doesn't have the two.
It's sort of like the normie. Like sure, if you're normie you
can use 0 running back. Robust robust RB or hyper frag.
I could see Herzig's hyper fragile thing coming back into
vogue again. Like you start 4 running backs
and then don't take any again for the rest of the draft.
No, I, I don't think unless the ADP environment changes a lot, I
don't think that version of it's going to going to ever come back
in vogue again unless there's a lot more running backs going
early and you can get receivers later.
But I do think like some some iteration of hyper fragile could
be like really in vogue next year.
It's like 1 running back early and then another in the 5th and
another in the 7th and another in the 8th and you stop so.
The the only strategy I know that will never catch on is to
hit him with the gritty triple elite quarterback that that I
feel 100% confident will never catch on.
You could tell me almost anything.
I, I feel like the story, well, it's, it's the, it's just, it's.
Cool. When you look at your roster,
it's kind. Of what if they ping pong?
What if they what if they ping pong weeks Is is the theory.
What what would you guys say with the the the?
And then what else? Like you, You spent three of
your top five picks at quarterbacks, man.
It's like it's the tweet format of like step one draft elite
quarterbacks and then Step 2 dot dot dot question mark, Step 3
profit. You don't you don't really in
between. It's just it kind of it just is
a vibes base. Yeah, I do think there's
something in your point grain. I realized where I tried to end
the show and now we're back talking about it.
I do think there is something to like you've made this point
before, so I don't want to pass off as my own take, but there's
something to like that the anchor running back or maybe
even like bimodal running back, like I don't know, a chain bijon
start something like that. I think that is kind of tricky
to advance. But if you hit on the right
combination of wide receivers, the upside on those teams should
crush like the zebra RV upside. Teams like should should
demolish it. So there's something.
To it depends on what running back hits we get, but it could
it could very well demolish. It, it could, it could demolish
it. Yeah, yeah, for sure.
Yeah, yeah. You probably need something like
this year's Nico Collins, like a wide receiver in the 8th, 9th or
10th that smashes 2 or something.
DeAndre Hopkins catches 11 touchdowns that could like what?
Like what like 1 outlier performance that you can.
You don't even have to squint to see it.
You're like, Oh yeah, that makes sense.
Would would shake it up the most.
Like Nico Collins was a huge one from last year.
A chain is a big one from last year.
I do think one of those wide receivers in that in that the
the Addison Sutton Locket, like what if if what if I told you
what if I told you Romeo Dobbs just catches 12 touchdowns.
Like actually he does just run 87% of the routes and catches 12
touchdowns and be like well thanks for it, was fun playing
but I will be back next year for some Ashton Jean T teams.
Yeah, I think Josh Palmer has some like, sneaky upside to be
that. Like you can squint at Josh
Palmer and see the Nico Collins single.
No, I can't really, but good for you.
Take sponsored by ETR. Now he's big underdog, now he's
big underdog now, yeah. I'm I'm playing both sides,
whatever's more convenient. Huge shout out though, to to
Leone on the closing line value game.
The Josh Palmer thing that was that was all him.
I picked in week 1. And I think Leonie has Josh
Palmer has like his wide receiver 10 or something in the
spreadsheets because their their their rank on him is just so
high. I don't know.
I don't know how that happened, but I'm happy for it.
All right, third, third attempt to wrap up the show.
We have an exciting announcement.
ADP chasing will be continuing during the regular season.
This year we will be doing shows I think at 11:45 AM on Mondays.
So it will be a first look show, much like the Take Cast or
Sorry, much like the Slow. Cast.
Slow cast, sorry. First look show.
I think we'll be going over resurrection AD.
PS But it it depends on what contests are out.
I think it's mostly just going to be bag defending if I could
project it in. The future?
It's mostly. Five, it's fives.
Don't promise any actionable information.
We're going to be vibing out. It's on Monday.
Not about games they've played. Yeah, it's it's big.
It's a victory. Laughing and bag defending for
one hour every month. It's basically going to be like
Jalen Warren. He didn't get there this week,
but he definitely could have if you look.
At a certain. Point of view he's.
Gonna We're playing for the second-half of the season.
The amount of like bad bad faith player comparisons I'm going to
be able to do with small sample data it's going to be.
Oh, it's going to be 3 weeks in. Higgins isn't going to have a
touchdown yet and like Jacoby Myers is going to have four
over. It's over for T Higgins, buddy.
Yeah, it's, I'm really excited to see which player.
I don't know, just just put Jover on in Week 2 or week three
this year. It worked well with JSN last
year that that could have bit me in the ass.
It was close to didn't quite, you know.
Sam, people forget I was live on ship chasing as JSN.
I was literally talking about how shitty JSN is as he caught a
60 yard bomb touchdown that was called back for the slappiest of
slappy. Like he, he's like it.
Was a great call. It was a great call.
Dumb landed out but I I like I was like almost decimated live
on air by Jackson Smith and Jigma.
I'll never forget it cuz I was like this will be the most
immediately I've ever been wrong about something and I was so
glad I got called back. Be honest, I was in the chat.
Be honest is that. Was that a worse feeling?
Than when you get sniped on
Xavier Worthy, yeah. No, no, it's it's.
It has not happened to me since that main event in every high
stakes draft since then. I've just told my Co manager
like, look, this is basically non negotiable.
Like you, we can manage this team together, but one of our
picks is preordained. Like Jacob and I did a prime
time on Saturday and we he we I think we got I think it was like
pick 63 and he was like, go ahead, like just just do it.
And I was like, all right. We're not going to know until
about round six if we're actually managing this team
together or if you just bought yourself a main event.
Hard to say. All right, well anyways guys get
get excited for victory lapping and bag defending 11:45 AM
Eastern every Monday. I'm really excited for the show.
We we should change that to the name of the show.
It should be victory lapping and bag defending on ship chasing.
Really, really rolls out the thumb.
Bias chasing. Yeah, lies chasing.
Lies. Bias chasing.
Bias, bias chasing. Bias chasing.
Yeah, this information. Bias chasing, Bias chasing kind
of has a I'm just there's something there.
Bias chasing, good work. I mean that sounds like a good
in season show. Bias chasing, I don't think I
don't want to have to chase ADP in season, so let's just chase
bias. That's what we're promising.
Yeah, let's the the premise of the ADP chasing show is really
falling off the rails. It's it's, I was going to say,
it's very, it's very loose. It's very loose, yeah.
It's very loose. It's.
It's very loose. But anyways, Ernest take for me.
I've had a really fun time doing the show with you guys this
season and last season. Thanks a lot to all the
listeners who've brought us here.
I mean, yeah, this, this show, just being honest, I think was a
lot more successful than I could have imagined when we started
this a year and a half. Ago It is the best basketball
show on the Internet. Let's just be let's just be
real. It is the best basketball show.
Even people who don't like us watch it because it's good.
It survives. This is the vibes are
Immaculate. The ADPJ.
Whether you're you're hate watching it or you're watching
it because you like our takes, we don't care, you know, either
it works. Or sometimes a little bit of
both. A little of both.
A little bit of both, Yeah. If you don't hate me at least a
little bit after watching the show, I don't.
I don't really know what to tell you.
You clearly. You clearly have been doing my
job. Premise of.
The show DD Higgins Representation has been watching
this just compiling a class action lawsuit.
All right, guys, Pat Davis, anything to tease that you guys
have coming up in season or we get out?
Of here I've just kind of given myself the grace to not fully
settle on what my in season schedule is going to be like
until next week. So whatever happens this week is
is a bonus. Cool Gran.
I went the opposite way. I decided to go ahead and do it
last year I, I didn't do a week 1 walkthrough and I felt like,
you know, I did move across the country.
So that was a little bit of a, you know, an excuse, but felt
like I really needed to, to come back and get that done this
year. So I am going to have a
walkthrough out. It's going to post Thursday
morning. Normally it will post Friday
mornings, but I'm heading to Vegas on Thursday morning.
So getting it done a day early. We also have Stephanie Miller's
waiver wire column, the first iteration of which just posted
to the site today. So she's looking at the waiver
wire, you know, for the early runs, for your high stakes
leagues and stuff. And then she's going to be
posting that every week going forward.
Matt Irby is also joining the team this year.
He's a crazy good writer. He's done a lot of great work
for Rotaviz and he's going to be previewing the Thursday, Sunday
and Monday night games. So we're going to have that
coming out AS2 separate articles.
The Thursday one obviously posts first and then the Sunday,
Monday night will come out on Saturday mornings.
We're also going to be doing in season positional redraft
rankings at legendary upside this year, adding that to the
mix. So those will those will
publish, I think Wednesday, update Friday, update Sunday.
So really ramping up the content that we have on the site this
year. Pretty excited about that.
We'll also obviously have playoff basketball stuff once we
get to that time of the year. Foolishly left at $10 a month
still. So if you guys want to get your
in season content, legendaryupset.com.
Also the legendary running back scenarios article, if you have
not had a chance to check that out, you can go ahead and do
that. That's live on the site and I
took the pay wall off so everyone can check that out.
That's awesome. And yeah, personally that first
waiver article last year, that was awesome.
That's something that I was checked out when I was comparing
notes with my Sabsaron waivers article.
She did a great job. It's really deep into the
pickups there. Quickly my in season schedule.
I'm no longer doing the the waiver bitch roll at ETR that's
been handed off to Daigle. Thank you, Daigle.
God, Daigle is doing waivers and then doing half a Silva's job.
So good luck with that Daigle. Now, he'll do an awesome job.
Definitely check that out over there.
I'm doing a different article for ECR this season.
The preliminary title is Breakout or Fake Out.
It's basically looking at the breakout performances from the
past week that were unexpected, going deep into both the film
and the analytics. Really watching all the plays of
a breakout game and seeing if that's repeatable.
It's sort of meant to be for both DFS and for your redraft
leagues. If you want to trade away a
player, trade for a player. I think the deep analysis at the
player level be really helpful for that.
And then I'll also be doing the underdog waiver show every
Monday with Hayden over on the Underdog channel, so you can
check out my work there. But anyways guys, let's get out
of. Here, Well, if you guys are
going to give the whole spiel, then I will do like I do know, I
do know that I'm doing this waivers every Monday, then the
waiver wire podcast every Monday.
If you don't like to read, you just want to listen to it.
That's a good one. Then I'll have I'll have in
season rankings on Wednesday. So your rest of the season
rankings, then weekly rankings on Thursday.
Then Friday will be the DFS thing.
It's not going to be like a 9000 word breakthrough.
It's just going to be like this is how I'm approaching the
slate. This is how I'm playing it.
And then I will have battle Royale streams on Tuesdays.
I'm doing the sports betting show with Reeves on Fridays and
then the unabated Pick Em show Friday afternoons.
And then Jacob and I are running back our DFS podcast from last
year on Thursday mornings. But it'll be on YouTube.
So they'll be, they'll be. And that's everything that I
know is happening. The thing is I just I got to add
something. Well, no.
Then you and I are doing. We're doing we're.
Doing DFSMV. P as well on Friday afternoons,
Yeah, Friday. So that's everything I know is
happening. The thing is I just have I got a
hole on Wednesday afternoon and on Monday afternoon that I am
trying to fill right now. Yeah, I got shameless plug too.
I, I, I have an opening for probably one more thing.
Anyone wants to pay me to do something, they'll free agent.
So hit me up with that. We'll be back.
Next Monday for victory lapping and bag defending.
See you guys then.