All right, night two of Ship Chasing's Playoff Week
extravaganza and tonight is a big night.
Pat of course, has been in the lab fine tuning his ownership
projections for the FFPC Playoff contest.
Tonight we are going to reveal them.
If you guys are ship chasing Discord members, those are
actually just posted right now in the Discord, so if you want
to pull those up and follow along, you can.
Gretch is also back from his trip, so he will be able to fire
off some fresh takes coming off of the Boomer Opto show last
night. It's ship chasing.
Let's do it. Pat Fryer, Helmo.
This is why This is why I'm hot. Anita Handjob.
Fix your sight, Jamar Alpha Play chase you.
Can't handle the heat? It looks like we're finally at
this point. You're right.
All right, Ben. Gretch back from his travels.
Ben, how we feeling? Everyone was bummed out for you,
but it was still a a decent trip.
Yeah, I mean it was. There's still some fun moments,
Kind of a bummer to go down how we did, just knowing we didn't
really play our best game. I mean, everyone in the ship
chase community's been been riding along.
I know you guys, a lot of guys have watched the watched from
the the PAC 12 championship against Oregon and the Texas
game in the semi final. And if you watch those games
then you know you kind of got the got the got a different
team. It wasn't the same type of team
against Michigan. You got to give your hat off to
Michigan. They obviously obviously have
like a really good D They don't turn the ball over.
They don't commit a lot of penalties.
They they play smart football. But man, I mean, we felt like we
had a poor game plan. Felt like our quarterback played
his worst game of the year. It's a rough time to kind of
have some bad, bad shit. Like, usually our coaching
staff's a huge, a huge plus. We were running like giving up
downs, running on early downs with a hobbled running back
where you have like no chance for an explosive run.
You're helping for like 4 yards. You're taking two.
I mean, like just so many. So many.
I mean, we kind of were conservative.
We played like, played a little, not not our game.
So anyway it was it was disappointing for sure, to go
down in a game that felt like we could frankly could have won.
So is what it is, though, you know.
Yeah, well I mean it's you got to chase those highs because
then when they do hit, inevitably they're that much
higher having experienced the the pain of the gut punch loss
for sure. Well, we are going to dig in
tonight to the FFPC playoff contest.
We kicked things off last night with Hassan and Blair going
through the boomer off go. One of the really interesting
things was as we got to the end of that, realizing how much, I
don't know variability there still is with some of these
ownership projections specifically to injury status
with the Eagles and there is a lot of kind of two V twos, 3V
threes down there that are going to make things interesting.
Pat, are you feeling like the ownership projections right now
are in a pretty good place? Yeah, I mean, I think there's
still some questions. One thing I think I may need to
end up doing is shift some additional fade to the Texans.
It's probably something I'll end up doing during the show.
I'm going to keep tinkering with these as we go.
But the way I set up the spreadsheet is it just it's like
fed by my my behind the scenes where the sausage gets made
spreadsheet. So it'll just auto update and if
I make any changes on my end. But yeah, I think the A.J.
Brown stuff seems to be trending in a positive direction.
We still don't have results from the MRI, but I was reading today
he was like walking around seems fine.
So if that's the case, then I think people are going to feel
more comfortable though there's a potential two V2 of like Jake
Elliott, Nico Collins versus like Kaimi Fairbairn and A.J.
Brown. And the healthier Brown looks
like more people shift over to that side.
So that that'll probably be the biggest change from the rankings
as you're looking at them now, assuming things trend in that
direction. Yep, Gretch, I know you weren't
able to check out the show last night, but are you starting to
dig into this wild card and playoff slate at all?
Yeah, a little bit. I was telling you guys earlier
today, the injury stuff is I I mean I didn't track it.
I didn't track week 18 super close.
Seemed like there was a lot of injury stuff that's going to
impact the play offs now. So I mean that's kind of a
bummer. It's also, you know, a lot of
potential opportunity there. And then, yeah, I mean that when
when I, when I saw the actual Boomer Opto, Nico Collins was
the name that stuck out to me. But I think I mean it.
Just hearing you talk through Pat, I think it does make sense.
I mean, Stroud has LED an offense all year that has had a
lot of skill, position, production.
I think people are going to feel good about that.
It seems odd that the Eagles wouldn't have anyone in, but
like A.J. Brown banged up DeAndre Swift's
not a guy that you're going to, you know, love to go to.
And I mean it really is. It's a Jalen Hurts type play if
you can, but no one's going to be picking them to to win the
Super Bowl. It's that's a tough one.
The Eagles is a tough one. And I I could see them being
kind of, I was just thinking like as Pat was saying that, I
was thinking to us like that's kind of wild, but they might be
pretty highly faded. Yeah.
I I mean they're going to be more highly faded than you would
think based on their odds of making the Super Bowl.
If A.J. Brown doesn't look right like
and the concern is right that he it's a Monday night game.
So how much are we even going to know?
Right. And how much are people going to
want to even take the risk, even if he's expected to play?
Like he doesn't get reinjured, you know, I mean.
Right. So I have them right now at 25%
total fade, which is the highest of.
Well, no. I've got them higher than the
Dolphins and higher than than the Rams, who both have lower
odds of, you know, going to the Super Bowl.
Yeah, yeah. And I, I do think again, when we
talk about the Boomer Opto and stuff, we're talking about
generally, you know, someone who's submitting 1 lineup who's
kind of wanting to play things conservative.
These are the decisions they're, you know, tending toward.
Like if you're putting in three lineups, you might say, all
right, I'll do 1 Eagles fade, I'll do one with Gotter and I'll
do one with Ajb. Like, you know, you might get to
those spots when you build multiple.
But I think in general the uncertainty of that Monday night
game and just the fact that, like, obviously we'll get more
news between now and Lock. But I mean, it's pretty quiet on
the A.J. Brown news front right now,
almost in an ominous way. Yeah, right.
I mean, it's it's weird. It's weird that he got an MRI
today and there's no news. Like how are they not tell us
what the MRI said? Someone knows.
So I don't know. I find that very pretty
frustrating. Tomorrow will be the big day,
right? Because generally Wednesday is
the first practice report day where we get like some good
information. But that's for Sunday game.
So I'm guessing all their stuff is moved back one day.
So you would think tomorrow would be like in a key practice
report day for the Eagles. Yeah, yeah.
And Friday we'll we'll obviously we'll get something.
So that'll that'll, that's still the big domino for this.
I think it affects Dallas Goddard.
I moved Goddard down fairly significantly since yesterday
because I I'm kind of positioning like either AJ
Brown's basically going to get played as we expect and then I
don't think people are really going to Goddard that much or
you don't you feel like really shaky about Brown and then all
of a sudden Goddard becomes pretty interesting.
So I've I've kind of currently sitting close to where I feel
like A.J. Brown is, you know, more or less
going to get played as normal, but if that changes then I need
to shift a lot. Do you want to just filter to
Eagles and we just start there just because we're.
Yeah. Yeah, let's start.
Let's start, Eagles. I was going to say your first
thought. Sharing my screen or are you?
Oh, sorry, I'm sharing your thing.
So you just need to filter on your sheet.
OK, right. Does that work?
That works, yeah. Let's do it.
OK, well. You got to say that the 25% felt
almost light, but obviously the match up with Tampa.
I think a lot of people are going to play them to win
obviously. I mean Tampa's another one that
that you were saying you know playing it either way with or no
you maybe you weren't saying that for for Tampa as the trade
off, but we were talking about Evans a little bit earlier right
in the chat. I mean, this is a game where, I
mean, there's going to be some people that don't want to play
either side of this, right? We want people to do that.
We we just have to do that. I think yeah, I think.
I think the game that jumps out to me there is the Browns where
you go Browns D Kaimi Fairbairn. You're like Browns D so good.
I I don't even care if I get two games from but you do.
You should care. Yeah, but but I I can see that
more than than the Eagles won. Although again, if AJ Brown's
not healthy, then that shifts, shifts things a lot.
Oh, I'm excited to look at that, 'cause I feel like a joke.
Who's gonna catch? I mean, people forget it's that
in Premium. The IT it is so weird.
I I kind of agree with Gretsch. Just again, looking at like
where guys go in underdog drafts and even like not that this is
the ultimate like sentiment indicator but I was pulling up
Battle Royale ADP and like Baker's like QB 12 this week.
Like people. I I just assumed people would
want to target this Eagle secondary.
But I don't know if there's just like lingering hangover over
respect for this old Eagles defense, even though they've
been a shitty secondary all year.
But in my mind, it'd be like you'd be crazy not to play at
least one side of this via an offensive piece.
And yet maybe people are just like, I don't like this game.
I'll I'll stay away in some spots.
Well, especially if Brown is dubious tomorrow at practice,
right? Yeah.
Yeah, for sure. I think, yeah, but what do you
guys think? I mean, let's say, let's say
Brown limited practice to tomorrow, full practice Friday.
You know, no real concern that he's going to be on like a snap
counter or something. Where?
Where do you think he comes? I think this seems solid.
Yeah. I I wouldn't be surprised to see
him come down a bit more maybe like to the 40% range in the the
Elliott and maybe even like. You're saying if he gets in a
full practice even? Yeah, I think people are going
to be afraid of the injury and pivot to Davonta some.
I think I would have Davonta a little higher than this.
I mean, I look at this and I say Adrian Brown's hobbled.
We do think the Eagles are are likely to at least win one game.
You do probably want a skilled position player from the winner
in this game. They are favored by three on the
road. That's a pretty significant
number on a road. You know on a road situation
that you probably want a skilled guy in this game and AJ Brown's
not healthy. Now A.J.
Brown in the second game could be healthier and that's when you
could get your big A.J. Brown number.
But I do look at this and I'm like, I mean it could be Devonta
Smith over two games like that. Last year they were like that
even. Obviously AJ Brown's been more
dominant this year, But if A.J. Brown is banged up.
If you're spotting that almost in a vacuum, you, you, you, you
might project Devonta or Goddard close enough.
And it's not like this is CD Lamb who had we have on the
injury port and we're uncertain about in his form, has just been
awesome. Like, I mean A.J.
Brown. His production has been
incredibly muted since, like, literally the end of.
October, He's on a bad run. Since the 125 streak, 125 plus
yards in every game. He's only gone over 100 yards
once since that ended, and in that since the beginning of
November. So Week 9.
I bumped them down 5% and and gave it to Devonta.
Yeah, I think, I think that's, I think that's right and obviously
the this is probably would you say Pat, this team in this news
report on A.J. Brown is probably the most
volatile projection across the contest right now.
I think so, because no one really cares about Waddle.
No one's playing waddle no one. Cares about Gabe.
No one cares about Gabe. No one really cares about.
Well, I'd say Mostert's probably the second biggest cause 'cause
I think you'll see some shift to most are actually.
I have Mostert ahead of HN right now.
Just thinking like you know boomers love their touchdowns
and he's he's leading the league in them so.
Yeah, this is this is a good point from Jonathan about
sliding the AJB stuff directly to Devonta.
I'm not sure people are feeling great about his health either.
Right now, yeah, that's where I'm not.
I'm not caught up on the health stuff, he says.
He Devonta was less likely to play than AJB is what he's he's
seen on the next comment there. I haven't seen again an updated
thing. He was dealing with that ankle
injury, so that's another one where the injury.
Report. Yeah.
He didn't practice last week, so yeah, maybe, maybe that's a
mistake to slide it there. So I I guess it goes to Goddard,
although it's honestly a reason we could see fade them, fade the
game. Yeah, the fade or the.
I think the kicker. Could or play Tampa to win.
I mean, I mean, yeah, I mean you can play Evans and the and the
kicker or what have you. Yep.
Yeah. So we probably shouldn't belabor
this one too much just because it's going to get shaken up a
decent bit. But I do think there's lots of
ways this can go because like if A.J.
Brown, they're like, holy cow, he doesn't practice and then
Devonta Smith's a full participant.
Like that's going to go different than like both Ajb and
Devonta Smith. Don't practice, you know, like
all these different configurations will shift things
around. If they if they were to both
miss, I think you like you. You don't feel good about Philly
winning the game, right? I mean that's it's not that
wouldn't be ideal for them. Yep.
They already won pretty convincingly in Tampa earlier
this year and and I believe that's a that's when DeAndre
Swift was like really hot early in the year and he had a big
rushing game. Yeah, I think you already
rushing yards. These teams are in like
completely opposite form than where they were in.
Right. That was week three, Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, I I think the the, the one name that we're not
talking about a ton here. That is interesting just because
the lack of viable tight end options is Goddard.
Like if you get the double whammy of Brown and Devante not
being there, I could see people saying like, dude, this buck
secondary has got lit up all year.
People forget it's tight in premium.
I'll just burn my my spot and just bank 10 targets for Dallas
Goddard here. Leonie's going to talk us into
Julio Jones, you guys realize. I've been I, so I I moved.
I I kept A.J. Brown at 45 and I just took the
Devante percentage and I gave it to Goddard and Jake Elliott.
So yeah, I think that's probably, but I think some of
this gotter could come back to Brown, so some of this Elliott
could come back to Brown too. Yeah, which?
Which way do you want to go pad? Do you want to go match up by
match up? Do you want to go to bucks here
or? What?
Yeah, let's go, Bucks. Yeah, that's probably the the
most fun way to do it. Yeah, I feel like the Bucks are
a fun one to talk through because I think you can make,
you know, legitimate cases for three to four different ways to
play the Bucks. I I'm struggling with just
personally, like, thinking about hard fading the Bucks just
because they're in a great spot. And there's a lot of ways I
think this can be a fun game. But you have it right now.
Evans at 26. Rashad White at 21.
I'll do a better job for the audio listeners here.
Defense at 19 in Tampa Bay. Fade at 16, What was the?
Was there anything tough for you here?
Yeah, I don't. I think maybe I've got the
defense in McLaughlin kind of I might need to go find some
additional. I I there's so many kickers to
project and so I I keep having to steal kicker percentages from
everybody and so but the field will feel that way as well so
that that's why it feels a little weird.
Like I think people will feel better about playing McLaughlin
than the Tampa Bay D but it's it's hard to to choose your
kicker there's lots of interesting kicker options and
then Evans and White getting this one dialed in is tricky for
sure because I there's something about just like feeling comfy
that you've you've got the running back it's it's a weak
running back crop. This lets you get off Kyron
which I think people probably of all like the chalky guys Kyron's
going to be the most comfortable fate where you're like oh I can
play Puka you know or I can play pop.
And so White lets you do that and and it's like one of those
spots where like an Evans, Kyron versus Puka White 2V2 actually
feels kind of fun to go with like the non chalky 1.
So I think this will be a pretty common, it'll be so common that
it's also just going to be like secondary chalk I think.
I think that's right. This feels to me right, right.
Like I I think you're right to have a pretty high, like total
fate of about 50% here and you had 25% on the Eagles.
We just talked through that as well.
And it's going to be a game where people might even make the
mistake of fading both sides of it.
It feels to me like a good opportunity to be playing both
sides of it. Because, you know, we some of
the other games we get to are going to be the ones where
people are going to want to play both sides of it, but they're
not necessarily great situations.
I know we've talked a little bit about like Miami and KC for
example, extremely cold game and everybody's going to want to
play both sides of that and and someone's going to lose, right?
And that's a big part of this contest is understanding that
somebody is going to lose. This is a spot where you kind of
just get a free roll and you can tell yourself that Mike Evans
and whether it's you know A.J. Brown or whoever the Eagles is,
you know play is they're in a good match up in this game.
Both of these secondary's are beatable, right.
They can get there in one game plus you don't have to pick the
game. It's not going to be necessarily
low scoring. It isn't Tampa.
It looks like there's going to be some potential for
thunderstorms and some rain, but it's not like it's going to be
like freezing cold or anything. Would expect some offensive
production in this matchup, wouldn't you guys?
I mean I think this is a an interesting one to to lean into
the the actual plays that are there.
Yeah, and I we we had One of the like, epiphanies I'm having
about this game is how the field will play it.
I think this is going to end up being the kicker game because
you think about, like how people want.
They're getting worried about those outdoor games.
You play your, your Browns defense or you play your, you
know, Chiefs defense, whatever it may be, in those cold weather
games and then in the Dome games, right, You're playing the
Rams and the Lions from both sides.
Offensively, you're playing CD Lamb and then you're most likely
Fading Packers. And so then you're looking
around for what feels like the comfy click and you're like, I
kind of don't know what to do with this game.
It's a warm weather game. Chase McLaughlin, Jake Elliott,
I think start to look pretty good.
I I think we're gonna see a ton of kicker ownership, and I mean,
that's reflected by the Boomer opto there.
But that's just a thought I'm having.
I think this feels like a kicker spot for people.
Yeah, I like that. It's either full fade or it's
play the position player. MM Evans feels like last year's
TK Metcalf play. We talked a lot about that it
was the Seattle team that nobody wanted to pick to win.
But Metcalf did end up having a huge game.
We we were overweight on him. Do you guys remember that?
It's so funny he's Tampa has been the seat maybe they'll beat
Seattle this year they got Dave Canales maybe they he'll turn
Baker around the way that they turned Gino around.
Now we're all the way into the playoff contest, that I still
want to make the comparison, but I mean they they are the
division winner. That's the four seed that people
want to pick to get beat in the first round at home.
But there's a pretty good argument for just, you know,
leaning into their star receiver.
If they lose, they're going to need to throw.
If they win, Evans is, you know, a great play for a two week spot
anyway. Right.
I think he's a good, good play at, you know, even at that
number. And the reason too, I I agree
with like the Chase McLaughlin for the Boomer Opto too is just
like you see the way the market has treated Evans and Rashad
White all year. And it's like people like, yeah,
it's concentrated, but there's always this like lingering fear
of like what if the floor, you know, bottoms out or you know,
falls out from underneath them. And then this is the Baker belt
down game. It's like no one has wanted to
fully buy into Evans and Rashad White.
I I just am trying to like gauge sentiment and I do really think
this will be a big kicker spot here.
Yep, I just added some kicker so which added a little bit more
fade to the game or no I didn't. I took it from from their fade.
So I bumped down Tampa Bay's fade and and moved it to the
kicker and I took away from Michael Badgley on of the Lions.
Cause to your point, I think people that I thought that might
be a kicker game to some extent, but I think people just play it
from both sides because because Gibbs is attractive enough there
that yeah, people, people probably feel more comfortable
about playing it through Tampa Bay's kicker as opposed to
Detroit's. And you you think about how that
pole gets like, what are the games where the kicker can
actually pull ownership? It's when there's not an
overwhelmingly attractive skill position.
You know, Ahman Raw is going to just be a black hole, you know,
sucking in so much that you're not necessarily feeling like I
shrug my shoulders and I play the kicker, 'cause I can't
decide on a skill position guy. Yeah, and I think another times
that kicker will will get someone if you just kind of want
to bet them to lose, which you will get some of with Detroit.
But I think this if you don't feel like you have a good pivot
at all and you're like, God, I don't want to eat this massive
chalk, then it makes sense to go ahead and play the kicker to
some extent. But that's not really the case
in Detroit. You feel good actually about
pivoting to to Gibbs. He's one of the most fun pivots
in the entire tournament. So you know I yeah, you probably
I may need to actually make that that move again and and take
down their Lions. The Lions fade a little bit
more. Do you guys want to hop over to
Lions here? Yeah, let's do it all.
Right. I was telling you guys earlier,
Laporta was gonna be one of my favorite plays in this.
It's a bummer we lose him. It does make this.
You guys were just talking about Almond Raw.
Really taking a lot of the projection.
It does make this less fun also, right?
Like. For sure.
Gibbs gets bit by Montgomery a little bit, and you can see why
people would just say, I'm just gonna take ARSP, right?
Like he's gonna get all the targets.
If they lose, he's gonna catch a bunch of balls.
If they win, he's gonna catch a bunch of balls.
He's a slot guy. Why not just take the dude
that's obviously going to catch a bunch of balls, and I don't
know if I can really argue with it.
Like are there a lot of scenarios where Gibbs crushes
Almanro in a loss or crushes Almanro over multiple games?
No. You're kind of playing it as a
loss, but it's weird because you probably want to.
You prefer the Rams to lose if you don't take Kyron?
Probably. You know, not that Puka can't
outscore Kyron over two games, but like you also have to worry
about cup there. And so if you're going to Puka,
it's kind of almost easier to go Puka Amanra and hope the Lions
win and you don't really want to go Kyron Gibbs 'cause that kind
of takes away some of the fun of of going Gibbs is that you gets
you off of Kyron, so. I wonder, do you think then that
would be like if you're playing Gibbs, is it?
Do you do you like full fade or soft fade The Rams?
I think it's in play for sure. It's just they're a tough team
to soft fade. I have them at 9% fade which is
lower than the rapists. That's what I've got.
I just have the field playing a ramp cause you've got Cause Cup.
I mean Cup is a sweet play like you know as a as far as like you
know like Galaxy brain plays go like it's Cooper cup.
Yeah, yeah. Any anything else here on the
Lions? I just don't see people getting
to Montgomery. I just don't.
I don't really see anything else other than these these top three
you really have here. No, I mean I guess I'd be I'd be
curious to to hear what you think about.
Let me let me unzoom if we can. You scroll over and take a look
at the the fades here for team level.
So I've got Detroit at 18% and just kind of how that compares
to some of the other teams, 'cause that would be the one
thing of maybe I have Badgeley still a little too high if
people just want to play it through Aman, RA or Git.
But I do think the Lions have looked shaky and they've lost
Laporta so and the Rams look pretty live.
So I think some people will be willing to to just play the
kicker and, you know, fade them. Yeah, I feel like Goblin Raw
might come in higher than 58 or whatever you had him at.
It wouldn't surprise you if he was 65 and Batchley was lower to
your question. And and honestly, I would even
maybe even take it from Gibbs. Yeah, I think, I think the
split. I don't think people are gonna
be as excited to pull the. I'm not even that excited to
pull the the the Gibbs trigger. I I I know some of you guys like
it a little bit. But I I don't think people are
gonna be as excited as as you just kind of made it seem like
it it is tricky like you you do have Montgomery.
It's not just a, you know a a clear workload there.
Right. And the Almanac is the slot guy
that just racks up targets. So you get this floor up from a
receiver. That's different, you know?
And even this narrative, you know, Shelly says, Don't you
want Gibbs in losing Scripps? I mean, he hasn't been catching
a ton of balls of late either. I mean, they were in a close
game against Dallas a couple weeks ago.
He had three targets caught one ball.
I mean, he had that stretch in the middle of the part of the
season, you know, 10 targets, 5568, and now it's been 242, the
one seven game against Minnesota, 31.
So it's like you can't even hang your hat on.
He's going to catch 4 to 5 balls here and that gives me a floor.
Right. So, so I just took the, I just
took badly down, Does this look a little better 15% fading
Detroit? I mean it's a little, it's lower
than you would think just given how.
Oops. Oh, I think.
You're on Baltimore here. Yeah, let me let me filter down.
I think that looks a little better to me.
I I'm with Gretch. I think.
I think Ahman Raj just separates in such a massive way.
You see that in the underdog drafts right now too.
I mean, Ahman Raj's going like early second round and it's a
while after until Gibbs goes. Yeah, that's.
I didn't know he was going that high.
That's high for. I mean, there's not a lot of
faith in Detroit to actually make a huge run.
I mean, know what? To your point, it's a while
later till till Gibbs, the next best player on their team goes,
because no one's not. It's not like people are
stacking up the line starting in the early second round.
It's just that almond Raw's getting that kind of deference.
Yeah, I mean I maybe I over say, I mean Amman Raw's ADP is 10,
Gibbs goes 21 and then a huge gap to Montgomery at 36.
So I I think having that Gibbs around 18 is pretty like
proportional to that ADP delta but Amman Raw is just and he
like even by your like leg up right kicks back like you won't
ever get him on raw like based if if you're using the leg up
stuff you. Got to have.
Him as mega overvalued. You can be more extreme on wide
receivers in the starting lineups over here than you can
at Underdog. You got to have some running
back depth at Underdog, right? And it's half PR.
So there's that gap there. But I would, I mean, I it would
make sense over here I think to have an even bigger gap.
Yeah, I think this. I think this looks right.
Because you could play 6 receivers and two running backs
in in an FPC lineup. And and I do think, you know,
we've had in previous years, right, where you had the two
dominant duos on a team. You know, I'm thinking of the,
you know, the old Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, the Aaron
Jones Devante Adams stuff. But it that was where the back
was the clear lead back on the team.
And I think the fact of Montgomery's presence and just
knowing you don't have squatters rights on all the touchdowns and
stuff continues to make Gibbs even less attractive as like,
the clean pivot. Oh, everyone's playing them on
raw. I'll just go to Gibbs.
It's like, well, fuck, what if Montgomery has the two TDs?
You know what I'm like. What am I doing here?
Right, right. And someone said, like Gibbs has
outscored in a few wins, but then they have a second game,
they're unless they go all the way to the Super Bowl, right?
Like, so then they lose in the next game.
Does he maintain that lead? I mean, that's one of those
things that we see in this contest is like you can be right
in the first game, but then the contest continues, right?
Like it. It's total points over their run
and every team but one is going to lose at some point.
So for some of the running backs, they get a little bit
trappy and Gibbs doesn't make sense as a trap back, which is
like, you know, they don't catch enough passes.
But he's kind of been that, sort of been what we talked about.
Not not a full trap back, but he trended dangerously close to
that. That type of usage in some games
where it's like, OK, well, when they lose, it feels like he can
just be a little bit out-of-the-box score.
Almanro feels just so much more comfortable he's going to get
his targets. If if they go down, losing
Almanro's going to catch 8 balls underneath in the second-half,
right? Like it's just going to happen.
Guys, I would say tonight's show is all about putting ourselves
in the mind of the field. It's an extension of the boomer
opto exercise and none of these leverage picks are quite
financial advice yet. We're trying to say what when
the majority of people are let their lineups, what are the
things they're thinking through here?
Well, I did see a lot of people eyeing Montgomery at 1%, so I
took it from Goff and and got him to two.
You got you got eyeball chat steam there odd David.
I did. I'll.
I'll be honest, like I I think you.
It's easy to look for for the for good pivots on every roster,
on every team. I think every team's a little
unique, and I will. I'm gonna be advocating for for
playing a decent amount of almond raw in our lineups.
Like even at a high ownership percentage you have a 12 man
roster. You do have other spots that you
can pull levers. I think he's a the right play
for Detroit. It like I I think he should be
65%. I don't know that I want to be
even with 65%, but I think I'd be fine with like 55 or 60, so
like a slight. I think that's right.
A slight slight fade from the field's enthusiasm, but you're
still you're trying to match them within reason, as.
Much as within reason, yeah, yeah.
But you're right. I think it's probably this is.
This feels like a better number than the one I started with.
Yeah, let's see. Let's go to.
Let's head over to Ram in the same game.
This is an interesting one. So that that Cooper Cup number
is really appealing. But I.
Think I feel pretty good about the Cooper Cup number where I'm
not hearing anyone really talk about cup.
I think people may naturally go oh, I don't want to play Kyra in
at nearly half the field. So you know I'll play, I'll play
puka instead, but I'm not hearing.
I'll play cup instead. The if you would have went back
to the beginning of the year right around the start of the
draft season, obviously whatever.
You know a lot has happened and Kyron and Puka are are the two
biggest out of nowhere names in in fantasy of the season.
But if you would have said that that the Rams would be in the
playoffs and and you'd be projecting Cooper Cuff healthy
at 15%, I would have my mind would have exploded.
I don't know how I could have explained that like it couldn't
have been fade. It's.
Still, you still would have cut. More than 15%.
It's So Bizarre 2. 18th round best ball picks would be above,
but we. Trust them more?
Yeah, it has to. That's the only way it makes
sense. It has to be two other players
that that the the field likes even more than cup.
It's wild. Yeah.
And and I mean we're getting comments here, Shorty Vegas
picks says cup might be 10% or less.
He thinks I'm too bullish on cut.
Is it that I so I've heard this a lot from subscribe subscribers
all year. The cut and the kuwa thing, it's
back and forth. I think everyone has a side
here. There are people that think
Nakua is the clear first round pick next year and the obvious
heir apparent to cup. And I think there are other
people that are still think Cup is the the clear above.
And I think everyone kind of thinks their side is the clear
side. But it's actually relatively
close. I I do think there are people
that are still in the Cup camp. I don't know it.
I don't. I think the Cup Cup needs play
offs to to have his camp make any noise this offseason, I
think. I'm saying going into.
This, right, OK. In our chat for ADP chasing Sam
Sherman was like saying that, you know, he's been he was
railing against the Jalen Waddles of the world and he's
like the next Cup wide receiver, too.
I'm going to be railing against his Cooper Cup.
So he's already starting that drum beat.
I think that's really convenient when you just take when the when
the wide receiver two becomes the wide receiver one, you just
you just flip them and say that like this cup would be a wide
receiver one in this analogy, right?
No, he's the he's saying he's the wide receiver two and he's
overdrafted. So I think, I think you're going
to have plenty of people. I mean Puka like a rookie wide
receiver entering his second year just had the best rookie
season ever. Like I think that.
Yeah, no, I know people are going to be on for next year.
I mean, for this I don't. Think they're I think people.
I think it'll be like, really contrarian to be like I'm still
cup as the wider singer one in in LA.
Yeah, the yeah, the thing, I think the reason I think it's
Puka is Puka's consistency has just been better.
Like he hasn't been below 20% of the targets all year.
You know Cup has had some of these swinging games.
Cups like me dot at the beginning of the year was a
really high A dot. They were using him down field.
Now in the past like few weeks it's been like sub seven, you
know, like his usage has just been herky jerky.
I feel like when people click Puka, they're like, I know what
I'm getting, you know? And that feels better than the
mystery box of what I'm getting. From you had this call on Depot
a couple years ago where you're just like he's the comfy clique
man and he came in really high that year.
Yeah. The thing, the reason obviously
these guys are going to stay in check is because of Kyron.
And Kyron is more a product of how bad the running back options
are than anything else. And Kyron is the back who you
say even if Detroit is winning, he's going to be on the field
catching passes. He's not going to get game
scripted out, he's not going to lose carries to anyone else.
And I can use one of my running back spots on that.
Like that is a profile people really, really like.
It is interesting though to have someone like Puka that can pull
from him in a very comfy way, 'cause you can tell yourself
even in a Rams win, Puka could easily be their top scorer over
two games. For sure, and I do, I do only
have 1% fade here to to answer Chris's question in the chat,
but I think I'm pretty confident about that.
Like we've seen situations like this before.
I would compare this to the Chargers from last year where
they I projected the Chargers to be 16% faded which you know
makes sense given that they lost in round one.
But they were 6%. So yeah, 18% projected 6%.
One of my biggest misses actually I think.
Yeah by far my my base over projection of a team last year
actually. And then I under projected how
much people would fade the Jaguars.
So people were just like I'm I'm taking echo or the comfy side of
this. I'm not going to figure out the
Jaguars side. I'm just going to fade them and
I I don't know that people will will go that route because it's
actually comfy to click both sides of this game.
But you know, there's no real reason to fade the Rams unless
you're specifically thinking like a a couple steps down the
line of, you know, I've got to play this against where the
field is going. But like, we know that a lot of
the field doesn't do that. They just pick what feels best.
Also what checks out to me with your ownership too is like again
looking at the ADP's on Underdog.
And I know it's different, not the exact same thing, but I I
think it gives you a good sentiment Check.
Kyron goes at 20, Puka shortly behind at 25, and then a seven
pick gap to cup at 32, which is almost like the exact
proportions you have in like 4828.
Fifteen. Wait, say that again.
Say the pick, Tom. Kyron goes at pick 20, Puka goes
at 2526, he's 25.9 and then cups at 32.2.
So I so the whole chat's talking about next year's ADP and and
PAT year two. I wasn't talking about next
year's ADP at all. It's very obvious that the
Puka's going to go higher as a Year 2 receiver in ADP next
year. I'm talking about this contest
specifically, like right now where people are going to view
it. And I do think I'm.
I'm curious about where Chase landed at his rookie year.
They made the playoffs his rookie year and he was even more
highly touted, I think, at this. Point I can.
Pull that up. Yeah, I'm curious where he
landed 'cause I figured you might have that they didn't have
a Kyron type running back. Mixon was, I think reasonably
owned, but not not where Kyron is at.
But I am curious 'cause they had Higgins as well at that time as
a second year. But I, I, I, I think this is our
bubble. And everyone who is commenting
in our chat and everyone who's in our world is more inclined to
like. Rookie receivers and then second
year receivers as well. It's a really interesting one.
This is a really good comp because Mixon came in at 48, OK
and Jamar Chase came in at 31 and Higgins came in at 9:00.
So this we could literally see the exact same percentages of
these three this year. I was going to say that had to
be a bigger gap than this because Higgins was a second
year player and not just had the best season of all time couple
years ago and people will say Cooper Cup in the playoffs a
couple years ago that Stafford's going to trust Cooper Cup again
in the playoffs in this spot. But I mean if you guys, I mean I
might be the only one that sees that, that that sort of boomer
angle. I think people that that people
outside our circle will think that a little bit more.
But if I'm the only one who who kind of sees that view, then I
think that's the way it should be.
I think Kop and Nakua should be a toss up.
I actually, and I I think I'm going to be 1 to be heavy on Kop
if this feels even like a high projection at 15.
Well, one of the things about doing these right is if you
project them and then you go, Oh my.
God, what an. Opportunity then maybe you've
just mis projected it so. So that's where I'm like
hesitant to. Nakua has been a lot more
consistent throughout the season, but when their season is
on the line, do you guys believe that Nakua has established
himself as more targetable than Cup?
Like go back to that Baltimore game, they went balls out in
that game, they got basically identical targets and the Cup
ended up having a little bit of a better game.
But that's what I think it is. I think it's a toss up.
And so if Nakua is going to carry double ownership then I
want to be on Cup. I don't think it's NAKUA should
be double cup basically should be an inefficient market.
That doesn't mean what it what it will be.
And I think you guys are convincing and the chat's kind
of convincing me. I just wonder, maybe this is our
our bubble a little bit too. He shouldn't be double, but what
happens in this tournament is that 6040 type decisions get
split, 8020 in what happens. No one's like people.
It's not like very few of the people go.
I guess I'll take the 40 to make sure that I have the the lower
own side. Everyone's like the more I think
about it, I do prefer pukka. So that's why we'll play, yeah.
Yeah, this is, this is definitely an interesting one.
I I I could see it, Yeah, the cup stuff coming up a smidge,
pook coming down just a smidge. But I I think this is a pretty
good reflection of how the market feels about it right now.
And Kyron makes a ton of sense too.
It's a tough RB market. Oh yeah, We know McVeigh, like
is a is a fantastic coach for running backs.
They're going to rush inside the 10, right?
He's going to get Green Zone carries.
They're going to. I mean, even in a loss, he could
have a two touchdown game, right?
He hasn't caught as many balls lately, right?
Is that. I mean, that's one minor concern
I have for him in a loss. Like, could he be a little bit
trappy? He's a little bit.
Oh, he. Could definitely be trapped.
I think he's potentially pretty bad chalk, but I do.
I mean, I had him higher, I had him in the 50s and I brought him
down some 'cause it was just like, he's so easy to fade in at
kind of like 55 plus. But so if.
You don't want to make if you don't want to make the wide
receiver decision. You just take Kyron.
You just take. You just take.
Kyron and I do think he compares a little bit to to mixing from a
few years ago which that the running back position from two
years ago we had 2.46 running backs played and that's about
what I have projected this year. So actually that's exactly what
I have projected this year. So it's similar kind of strength
of the position, meaning it's not that strong.
And so mixing allowed people to kind of put, you know, a guy
who's going to get all the touches and just let me get one
of my my running back spots locked down with a three down
workhorse. That's very appealing in this
kind of field. So I don't know that Kyron can
really come that much further down than this given that we're
gonna see some fate of Tampa Bay Rashad White.
You also then have to give up Mike Evans, which is kind of a
more fun way to play that game. So it's just it's just like kind
of hard to get off of Kyron. I mean, maybe he's more like 44
percent or something, but. It's not.
I think he's he's higher than this.
If anything, I think you have that part of it right for sure.
Yeah. All right, this this could be a
four hour show if we don't pick up the pace.
Granted, this is like one of the more interesting ones.
Let's let's head over to Dallas if we can have a very quick
conversation about CD Lamb. Yeah.
So I. Guess the question is, is it
worth pivoting off him in any in any case?
Not really. So it's so hard, I guess.
I think the gal brain is what Pat has right?
Where you say Jake Ferguson scores 2 TDs and a loss is is
basically like the gal brain way you you get there.
Or Tony Pollard is slightly efficient.
Nope, you don't do that. Tony Pollard, ADR Rushing TD.
Yeah. Listen, I do not want this to be
us. Don't, don't let this, don't let
this 2% be us. I don't want it to be us.
I do not want to play Tony Pollard.
Yeah, I just, I can't even. Even if someone wants to play
Cowboys Super Bowl run, then you maybe start to say could you see
Dak spreading out. But I mean, Lamb has just been
the focal point. I just don't know how you get
anywhere else. You're going to find other
opportunities, I think as well to get different.
Like I think the field is going to condense massively to Josh
Allen and Lamar Jackson. So if you, like, wanted to play
Purdy, Dak or Hertz, which are all pretty strong quarterback
plays, you're going to be crazy, crazy different on that one
decision alone. And those are all make you have
a pit in your stomach a little bit, but a smaller pit than
fading CD lamp for Jake Ferguson.
Yeah, yeah, I mean, CD Lambs scored a touchdown in nine
straight games. I mean, there is not a comfier
clique in this contest. I I'd argue it's even comfier
than CMC when you say I get to get potentially 3-4 games from
him. I have him higher than CMC.
Yeah. All right, let's talk about.
Aren't you worried about Dryer Alexander?
Be a little. Shit, this one is interesting to
me in that I I agree with the mega Green Bay fade just when
you look at the two biggest dogs on the slate.
But I I think the market is playing this wrong.
When you look at the total, you look at the Dome, the game
environment, this seems like a spot that I want a skill
position or even a soft fade, just 'cause I think there could
be a lot of points here. But I do agree the field is not
going to want to deal with this spot for the Packers.
Yeah. And like I think the issue is
who do you pick because Jaden Reed definitely you know has
some appeal given how he's come on Aaron Jones is a is a fun you
know kind of gal brain running back play Christian Watson you
could like maybe consider it might have him too high at 2% to
be honest though so that I mean just like but then you're like
man OK I'm playing Jaden Reed that's fun when I just think
about that part. But now I'm not playing Tyreek
Hill that sucks. Jaden Reed versus Tyreek Hill.
Jaden Reed versus Mike Evans. Jaden Reed versus A.J.
Brown. You know, you can kind of go
around the. Lead confident I.
Feel I feel. I mean, how confident do you
even feel in Jaden Reed versus Robio Dobbs or Dantavian Wicks
or Christian Watson? I mean, you feel, you don't
feel. Confident, but not a mate.
I might take this and to give it a little to Jones, cause Jones.
Is. I think Jones is, yeah, that's
what I was gonna say. That's where I was gonna go,
'cause I do think. I think you.
Can't feel confident enough on the on the pass catchers and
running back is a constraint. Jones is the running back.
You play, you're not playing AJ Dillon.
The receiver stuff is really tricky.
Maybe that's the way people play it because Jones unlocks
something, at least where Reed just feels like.
What's the point? But honestly, I think I might.
It's possible I have the Packers too low as as the as the fate.
That that's my, that's my thing. Like, I personally think that's
way too low, but I'm still trying to say Will is that how
the field will play it though? Yeah.
And if that's I think 1 where if we get A.J.
Brown news, this is another spot where people would just go, OK,
I have A.J. Brown that makes me not only
feel better about A.J. Brown, it makes me feel better
about playing Mike Evans on the other side.
There's this is gonna be a fun game you know, or playing Rashad
White on the other side. And so I'm gonna move off of
this Jane and Reed galbraing idea I had on Wednesday and just
play the best plays over in this other game.
Yeah. And there is.
I mean your point about the the Tyree thing is really
interesting 'cause there is 4 fades.
I mean for people who don't really remember the math of this
and and everything, there's four fades, there's six games on
opening weekend, presuming you're not fading the Ravens or
the Niners which you can also fade those teams theoretically
and play them as a one and done. But most people are not going to
six games opening weekend. You're going to have six losers
opening weekend and your 4 fades need to be among those six
losers most of the time. Which means there's two games
where you get to play both sides of it that we know the match up
going into Week 1 and and So what are the two best
opportunities to do that The Rams Lions we just talked about
is one of those potentially right.
I mean that feels like a really good one.
Dolphins Chiefs feels like a really good one even like I
would argue like Browns. Texans can can be argued but I
mean as they're saying people might not play either side.
We just talked about the Eagles box.
This Packers Cowboys game is in there, but it's not like I like
your call, Pete, that I don't think people are going to play
both sides of it as much as they should in a Dome with A50 over
under. It's not the immediate one that
grabs you. Yep.
And even like Aaron Jones, he does obviously have some pass
catching chops. But I think people do worry
about playing big underdog running backs.
You know, like they they would do it with an Alvin Kamara CMC
type profile If they say like he could catch 8 or 9 balls.
I don't think Aaron Jones is in that territory with his profile
this year. And just, I mean Jordan Love
doesn't even check down that much either.
So I don't know. I'm just saying like if you're
playing it that way of like, hey the Cowboys smash, I would
rather than play like Jaden Reed if I was going to play like
someone, that's like how my thought process would work.
Or Jaden. Yeah, that makes sense.
Like he could get there in either game script.
Yeah, that makes sense in in late game you know chasing and
throwing I the more we talk about it, I do think Reid could
have some some ownership there. I think that that that made
sense. The other part of it is.
Being kind of a hero for people. So that was where my initial
Reid. Was Yeah, that makes sense.
Lamb. Being such a comfy clique on the
other side, then you're like, well, OK, I'm picking the
Cowboys to win. Oh, and the Cowboys have a great
defense. All right, fine.
I'm just gonna fade the pack like it.
It all fits in. So easy to just tell yourself to
fade the Packers. It does, yeah.
I just added some to to Andrews. Carlson brought the total fade
from 82 to 84 and that let me bump Jones and Reed down a
little bit. But I wonder, I bet if you're
going to play wider CV, play Reed, probably not Watson.
So this is where I think we'll settle 9% for Reed, 9% for.
But just to like so the reason I think the markets getting this
like Okay the Steelers, the other full fade team by the
Boomer opto and by the percentages their team total
this weekend is 13. Green Bay's team total is 21.5.
It is higher team total than Miami.
Like the market is going to get that full fade wrong.
Like if you're just full fading by a team total, it should be
Miami. They're the only other team sub
twenty team total on this slate. But people are going to full
fade the Packers at a much higher clip.
In defense of the field though, you don't just full fade based
on team total because we have to predict where the points are
going to go. And the Dolphins, I mean it's so
much easier to predict where the points are going to go.
So there is now is to the level of of how the ownerships are
going to come in. No, no, I mean the field is
going to be overconfident. But it's still like, I get it.
I get why it's like, yes, yes, the team total slightly higher
in Green Bay, but where are the points going to go?
And I can just play Tyreek instead?
Yeah. I mean, I I would argue things
are, I mean like Jane Reed since week 12 has had a 21% target
share, 32% targets per route run.
Obviously he's not Tyree Kill, but I do think there's
confidence in who Jaden Reed is at this point.
So do you think should I have Jones a little lower and Reed a
little higher than we've kind of come full circle?
Again, I'm I'm getting at the point too where I'm like arguing
for like my personal takes on what's efficient versus what the
field will actually. Do He is beloved right now.
I mean, he's been a hero. Yeah, but so is, I mean, I think
people like Dante, there's a couple Dante and Wicks comments
in the chat. I mean, I think there are people
that maybe I don't think Dobbs has that kind of appeal.
No, I agree with everything Pete's saying.
I do go back to it's hard to pick any of the Packers pass
catchers and so I think you've now gone back too far low on on
Jones. I think people are going to go
to Jones for the RB2 spot like they they need the RB, right?
And Dallas has had some teams really run against them and you
can tell yourself they're going to unleash Aaron Jones and give
them 15 carries in the first half.
Like look what the Bills did to beat them.
They ran the ball. They they used James Cook, who
was basically there. Aaron Jones.
He had a monster game against them, right?
Like an efficient, slashing running back.
Yeah, yeah. I don't think Wix is.
I mean, I know people. Wix strikes me as a $35 contest
play. You will see some Wix last, but
they will round down to zero I think.
Yeah, especially if Watson is active.
All right. Should we?
I'm just saying that in terms of feeling confident about Reid.
I agree with Pete. I think people know who Reid is,
but it's still like a little bit tricky because there are
interesting other names. Basically sort of the.
Yeah. Like no one wants to play AJ
Dillon. There's no AJ Dillon.
No, no, AJ. Dillon, let's wrap up.
NF or what, Niners? Yeah, right.
That's the last one we have in the NFC.
This was also obviously another early part of the Boomer opto,
putting in Christian McCaffrey. Pat has him here at 80%.
Definitely feels right. I guess it's a slightly more
interesting conversation than the Cowboys because you know,
they actually have some really good players who have flashed
high end efficiency and high end ceilings.
Like anyone can tell themselves a story of one of these top four
guys being the top scorer in a single game scenario, and
probably two of them like I'll I'll drop Kittle out of there
being the optimal in A2 game scenario.
Like if you told me Debo or Iuke was the highest scorer over two
games, I wouldn't say you were crazy.
So I think that's interesting, But we know the field is going
to pile on to CMC specifically because of the running back.
The running back issue, yeah. And one thing I'll say here is I
have San Francisco being faded. All fades, soft fades, Kicker D
plus no one playing anything at all at just 1%.
But if that feels off at all, last year we had the Chiefs,
Bills, and Bengals all at 1%. We had the 49ers last year at 2%
total fade. 2 years ago, the Packers and the Chiefs came in
at 1% and the Bengals were a 2% total fade.
So this is a contest where certain teams, people just like
don't fade them. And so I I think I just have 1%
D and everyone else is playing a 49er and I think that's the way
to go. Like you play if you're going to
pivot off of the off of McCaffrey, go to Kittle, go to
Debo, I don't think you or IU, you don't need to go or Purdy,
right? There's no reason not to play
49. Yeah, Purdy is.
There's some some some chats about Purdy.
Sam Sherman mentions it. He's an interesting one.
You obviously don't get the first week.
You also get the two likeliest bring backs on the AFC are
strong quarterback teams. Lamar and Josh Allen are the two
highest odds coming back and so yeah, I mean I think Purdy makes
sense if you're building AKC title game and and maybe even a
a different dark horse, but. You're almost asking some
question. 'Cause if it's if it's Buffalo
or Baltimore, Alan or Lamar is gonna outscore Alan or Lamar
plus whatever of San Fran's concentrated superstars scores
the most, is gonna outscore Purdy plus Diggs or Purdy plus
Zayflowers. It's just gonna.
Yeah, you you would probably need the winner of the Dolphins
Chiefs game to go to the Super Bowl cause like Purdy can hang
with like Mahomes and into a. And then you could have Kelsey,
you know, you could have Hill. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
But I think you're pretty much drawing dead if if it's one of
the top 2 seeds from the AFC who makes the Super Bowl, which is
not a fun place to start. Yeah.
And I do. I do vaguely like Purdy as a
play. I mean, I I 'cause he like he he
they can spread it around enough.
And the 2X on the Super Bowl? They're a really high Super Bowl
odds team. He could hit each of these four
guys for ATD in the Super Bowl, have four TD packs.
You could start it out. You're gonna have a game?
Yeah, it could. Definitely happen.
It's like it's. Hard.
When you then do the dynamics of, well then who are they
playing? Because I probably want the QB
on the other side, you know? Yeah.
Yeah, see, I'm saying Purdy's only two points per game behind
Lamar, but that's obviously not the only consideration.
The consideration is yeah, no. You think they pull hours away?
How far is Christian McCaffrey ahead of Gus Edwards?
Why don't you pull that? Yeah, that's the problem that
that's really the problem. I I don't Now there's two
questions here. One is is the ownership wrong
and the other is it's pretty a good play.
I don't think the ownership is wrong.
No, it's not. If if anything, you might even
end up be a smidge light. I think, I think it might go up
a little bit higher than this. You're saying?
Oh yeah. Yeah, it's like I'm saying I
could see him at 85. Oh, you think McCaffrey?
No, no, I was saying that I could see Purdy at like 5%
'cause there's such a high odds to win the title and you just go
high odds to win the title, take the QB.
Yeah, I don't think I'm open to playing a little Purdy, but I
think there's there's no way he's going to be over Kittle,
Samuel or Ayuk. Yeah, I I think he's, his cap is
like 4. Like maybe he could get there.
But the problem, we haven't done the AFC yet.
But like, when you go to the AFC like I did, or I've done several
rounds where I go around and I just steal ownership and I give
it to Josh Allen because I think there's going to be a big,
there's going to be a lot of steam on Allen, even though I
think Lamarr's the primary chalk of quarterback people.
Maybe that's where we should go next.
Yeah, let's go to. You want to go let's go to let's
go to Ravens. Yeah.
So Lamar, I have a 55. When I first started thinking
about this I was like before the games were played last week I
was like man, Lamar could be 6667%.
But then when the Bills got the two seed I think that changes
things. I think there's like some
there's some interesting stuff that I've when I've tried to be
thinking through and getting other people's opinion on Allen.
No one dislikes the Allen play. No one is because they're sort
of like, oh, Lamar will be huge chalk.
But I like out or there's kind of actually, I think Allen might
be the chalk, which I have a harder it's.
The GPP pivot that is no longer sneaky.
It's not sneaky at all. Like, do not think you're If
you're playing Purdy or Dak Mahomes or Hurts, you are being
sneaky. If you play Josh Allen, you are
not being sneaky. At all.
People think that's sneaky, like I've.
I've heard some sneaky takes, yeah.
He's been. He's been in shock QB for years
in this contest, right? It's been.
It's it's one of those things where if you go, everyone's
gonna play Lamar. So I'll play on.
But I that's that's where I started.
But slowly, I've just been lowering Lamar and bringing up
Allen, and I still have him at 55 and Allen's in the 30s.
But there's going to be plenty of Allen.
There's plenty of Allen. I would still bet a ton of money
that Lamar comes in at higher ownership than Allen, but I do
completely agree that Allen is going to be the second most
popular quarterback. And they're going to combine for
a lot, at least 80%, I mean, a lot, right?
Yeah. 5535, is that what do you have Allen at right now?
I have Allen. That would be 90.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
No, that's like more where I have, I have Allen at 34.
Yeah, you have it at 90. Yeah.
Wow. Yeah.
They just. Yeah.
And I I feel like both of those numbers are like, it's like how
can they both go up? Right, that dude.
I mean, how can they both go up? Has been one of the things I've
done all day. Like, actually, how often you
don't need this 1%, Stafford, 1%.
Give me a break. No way.
It's all going. I'm just throwing it all at
Lamar and Allen. The big thing for Allen is you
get the extra game. People are going to be like,
yeah, but I mean you you can get a four-game run.
Yelp. Yeah, the.
I mean, even with that. And I I saw Steph in the chat
she was mentioning, and I've seen it too.
Allen going ahead of Lamar in underdog drafts.
Maybe the ADP will refresh and push him closer, but Lamar still
goes ahead of him ADP wise 3.2 to 5.1 and getting the added
game there is even more important because you literally
have to get the team. He's going ahead of.
He's going ahead of Lamar on DK. He should.
Definitely be going ahead of Lamar in in undertalk, in my
opinion as somebody who has not done a lot of those drafts.
Yeah, I think that's a fair take.
Yeah, I bumped them up above in our DK rankings, which we have
DK rankings. We're.
Yeah, we're we're working on it. Yeah, nice plug.
Nice plug. I wasn't supposed to say
anything about that. Let's real quickly talk about
these other plays like how you have the ownership here.
Looks like spot on me. Zay Flowers will be a good
secondary option if you don't play Lamar.
I think people can talk themselves into Likely and
Justin Tucker. Mr. Ave.
Maria himself just always has such strong brand recognition
for the boomers who think Lamar Jackson is a running back and
don't want to play him. Justin Tucker always feels
pretty comfy there. So yeah, this is one of those
ones where I've heard enough of the Justin Tucker take that I'm
taking it seriously. You know, I listen to the high
stakes Spanish Football hour with the guys who won last year.
They were touting Justin Tucker. Really.
Yeah, I think. Tucker playing Ravens as a as a
one and done. Yeah, I think, I think if you
don't want to deal, I I think what it's going to be is like,
you know what, I'd rather play Allen and therefore the Ravens
will lose 'cause I don't wanna fucking deal with longer Ravens.
I think you're gonna get that. And I actually wonder if I may
be light on the Baltimore fade because and this has come up,
I've got 12% of the field fading.
Baltimore now that's pretty high for a one seed.
I think that's probably the highest one seed that we've ever
had as far as I. I haven't played with the
bracket enough, but how do they lose?
What's the bracket where they lose?
It's the Browns or the. It's the Browns.
I think people play it as the Browns.
I don't even think it. OK, so maybe it's the Browns,
but let's assume that it's not even the Browns or Texas.
You have to have an upset. And then so, like, the Dolphins
could be the one that goes to Baltimore, right?
Or if the Steelers beat the Bills, they would go to the end.
No, that's not. That's not.
I think the way people would play it, the the comfiest way to
play it is you build Tucker and then you pick both sides of the
Chiefs game and then you pick both sides of the of the Browns
game. So you're like no matter who and
then you pick A, you pick Allen and you pick like Steelers D or
something. But that way it's like I don't
need to know who someone goes and beats the Ravens.
I'm not sure who it is, not the Steelers, but it's someone else
they. Can't play the Bills and they
can't play the Chiefs, which makes it a lot harder to
envision them losing in their first game.
It definitely does, yeah. But you you, you make sure you
have a live Texan, a live brown and a live dolphin, and you hope
one of those teams makes it. Yeah, yeah, I I mean, if all
that stuff like is true and people are talking themselves
into Baltimore, fades, soft fades, Josh Allen.
I mean, Lamar Jackson, Is there a chance he comes in like under
an efficient ownership if if all of this talk is in play?
What? What do you think efficient is?
I I think I think it back close to where you have it.
Like, I think you should be slightly over 50%, but just like
all this talk about like the field, like Gal braiding and not
wanting to deal with Lamar thinking they choke or whatever
makes me want to be a little more overweight.
I think the biggest thing on Lamar is the two game scenario.
They do win in the first game but then they have to face
Kansas City or Buffalo or whoever in the AFC championship
and they do lose that game. Is it Lamar as the optimal at
that point? Probably not.
It's only two games you didn't get the first game.
So it is say flowers or somebody right like and and they should
be carrying some ownership. My immediate thought looking at
this was Lamar was like Zay was high, likely was high.
Those guys don't make sense. But the two game scenario, you
gotta have some say. You gotta have some likely have
some gusts, right? I mean that.
I think that makes sense, yeah. Yeah, I I think I want to
probably be overweight Lamar on this.
And we're doing this with Leoni, so that might be a hard sell.
But you know, like the Bills are, the Ravens are a pretty
strong team, and you're you're probably fading a little bit of
like the Boomer narrative of like Lamar doesn't win in the
playoffs or whatever. Like, OK.
Yeah. Fade that all day.
I mean their their defense is fucking awesome.
He's playing great. And The thing is is, like I say
what more, even more so than Allen to the Bills?
Like Lamar Jackson is, you know, the center of the Ravens
universe? Like even though the Zay Flowers
games where he's having a good game, Like, I mean, Lamar is
having good even. Like the Gus Edwards stuff.
I know he can vulture touchdowns, but it's because
Lamar got them, you know, down to the rest.
It's just hard for me to imagine threading that needle where
Lamar isn't the most dominant, you know, Ravens performer over
more than one game. Yeah, and This is why Tucker
will be played, because that thought process plus.
I want to play Allen. Yeah, is going to lead to Tucker
is I cannot play Raven, that's not Lamar.
And yet, And I am playing Allen equals Tucker for a lot of
people. All right.
Let's transition over to Bill's because I think it's a good
segue to go from the Lamar to the Josh Allen 55% here on
Lamar, this is really interesting.
Diggs coming in ahead at 42%. He was in that Boomer opto, Josh
Allen 34, Cook 10, Dalton Kincaid 10 and then yeah, no one
else catching much here. What were your thoughts trying
to sort this one out? So when you look at the Ravens
one, I have the exact same feeling as Ben of Lamar's Too
low, Flowers too high, Gusts too high, Likely too high.
And then you come over to the Bills and you go Allen Too low,
Digs too high, Kincaid too high, right.
So it's like, how do you square this?
Because everyone wants to play Allen and everyone wants to play
Lamar. But it's so much easier to talk
yourself into digs of all the other piece of all the pieces
that we have to play the outside of the quarterback.
The two comfy cliques from a player perspective are Diggs and
Justin Tucker. Those are the two guys who
actually feel like I have a really good player at this
position that's not the quarterback.
And so I I ultimately think that more people go Lamar Diggs than
go like Josh Allen. Flowers, Yeah.
I do agree that that 2V2 and that's why it ended up in the in
the Boomer opto there as well and I do think it's kind of a
bummer to me. It's like Diggs hauls in that
big TD and that Dolphins game. People are thinking more
favorably about him. If James Cook didn't have a
couple of those little duds after he was really picking up,
people really start to say holy cow this is a horrible running
back slate. Let me play James Cook.
But I mean Dig or Allen just separates for people in a really
big way here to where man, I I, I am having a hard time squaring
that like you're saying. Because in a vacuum you would
say Diggs put him in the Zay flowers range and put Allen in
the Lamar range. But the math.
Doesn't work. I think the Gabe, the Gabe
injury, the Gabe injury makes it and and then Diggs, just being
who he is as somebody who's obviously been.
He hasn't had the great year this year, but he's had the long
career. I think just kind of pushes him
up. It just has to right?
The game injury especially, yeah, and and Liam pointed out
in the chat that Gabe should be zero with the injury, which is
correct and as a thank you, I gave that 1% to Dalton Kincaid.
I like James Cook. I think he's a good play.
He's a guy who can get yards. He's a guy who can be explosive.
He can score points. He can be their highest scoring
player in a loss. I think he's an interesting
running back pivot. He's one of my favorite pivots
on the slate. I agree.
Do you think this 10% is right? I mean, I floated that earlier
and Leonie didn't love it and he's a bill, so I don't think,
like everyone loves the idea of of pivoting to cook here.
But I I mean, yeah, I I don't think it can go way higher than
this. Is that what you mean?
Yeah, I mean, I could see, like Diggs, Diggs has not been as
fun. Like I could see it being more
like 38 and 14, something like that.
Yeah, maybe it's higher. The chat's saying it should be
higher too. Maybe it is higher.
I I'm probably colored by the fact that I want him to be low,
but. But.
Cook is, and Liam pointing out the running back scarcity is an
issue, which we've noted it is. It's tough, man, because Cook's
had that one big game, but he's been he doesn't get any goal
line carries. Like, what's less comfy than
that, right? True like I you're.
Fading potentially 4 games from Allen and it's with a back who
doesn't get any cares at the goal line.
Like, I don't know, it's a little scary.
I will say I will want to be underweight digs if if this
number's correct. Man, I could.
Does Allen come up? Does Allen come up?
You say that Pete, and that's my immediate thought too And then I
actually think about it and I'm like, I mean the most likely
scenario for the Bills is their their ten point favourites this
weekend if they win, but they don't actually go all the way to
the Super Bowl. There are a lot of scenarios
where you get into the two and three-game outcomes where I mean
it probably is Diggs who had the the one big game and and scored
the most for their skill. Guys I I I want to be
underweighted too, but. Yeah, the the again, the people
you don't really like. You can't treat these in a
vacuum. You have to go just massively
change the Ravens stuff if you're going to massively alter.
The let's let's let's get, let's get Allen to 40, OK and then
we'll take, we'll take that directly from Diggs.
So he goes to 32. Now you have Lauren Allen at 95
combined. Well, now we.
Well, the problem is that no one's gonna.
I mean, we, you know, Sam Sherman's gonna enter 200 of
these just to play 30. So we're gonna.
So there's your 2%. But we're gonna have purdis in
here. So you know you're gonna get
some hurts, you're gonna get some Mahomes.
So you know now we got oh, I need to on this sheet.
I need to go to Baltimore. So let's go look at Baltimore
because now we we have he needs to come down to 49.
OK, so where does 6% go here? I, I think it's, I think it's
Zay. I think it's like it's kind of
like that pull of like I think the market like thinks just as
good about Zay as they do about digs right now honestly.
Yeah. Maybe there's 2% of it goes to
likely. I think the majority goes to
Zay. Likely's a bad play, though,
because Andrews could come back. Oh, that's right.
Yeah, yeah, The playoffs. Yeah.
Andrews Health. Health.
Like I I I feel a little shaky about this being this high I.
I But if you if you think about the logic of people who are just
wanting, like if you submit 2 lineups like full fit like
you're going to do, like if I just submitted 2 lineups, I
would probably have a Alan Zay and a Lamar James Cook.
Those would be my two if I had two entries.
You'd have Alan Zay and Lamar James Cook.
Interesting. Yeah, I I think I would too like
the exact same or else Lamar digs.
But it would. You're saying James Cook has
kind of a pivot, which makes sense.
Yeah, I mean that's. My personal project, but I'm
just saying like. But then the if you take if you.
Take it off. We know that he's bad all.
Right. Sorry Liam, it's going, this is
going to be. Bring it up to cook, yeah.
That's fire. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So there you go. So now it digs it down.
It's not bad. I just wanted to poke it.
Leo, I'm sorry. No, he is that that looks that
looks pretty good to me. I think we want to be
overweight, Lamar. Man, this if this is the way
people are. Gonna That was my take away,
yeah. But now we've lowered the the
ownership even more. I mean, something has to give.
Something has to give either like every other quarterback's
gonna be 1% or or people are gonna fall in love with.
These are the little micro things that we talk about all
week and we get more sentiment from other people's opinions and
and we'll land somewhere. It could go a couple different
ways. This is obvious.
There's some, there's some volatility here.
It depends, yeah, but all. Right.
Let's do, let's do Steelers. This can be a quick one, like
yeah. Probably 95% fade.
I have a close to that 'cause I mean I'm plus the D.
Which makes their defense if it is.
Closer. Yeah, I think the D is a pretty
good play. Yeah.
Hard to imagine even using the kicker outdoor, that team total.
No one's going to want to use the running backs.
They're playing basin rough. I'm usually like really game to
play you know anybody in these fade spots because you but like
this is such a hard one to look at.
I I who would you play like? It's Pickens.
But God, I don't feel good about that.
It's just I was in. Whether in this team total man
it is, it is bad. I love that Liam's like
Pittsburgh D Who on earth would play them?
It's Josh Allen's a walking turnover.
I mean, that was the play last year too, was the Dolphins D.
The Dolphins was the right play. Smashed, yeah.
In a loss, Smashed, yeah. In a In a game where they
started Skylar Thompson, they absolutely smashed.
Yep. So Liam's saying TJ Watt, No
way. The Boomers play.
I've already heard. Yeah, I've already heard the the
Steelers detouted. So I I don't know I'm maybe
maybe but it's just going to the fade.
I mean it's work that could be a good take that the I have the
Steelers D too high but it's just going to go to the fade
it's. Not the reason why people like
if you're in DFS like I. So I have just the single game
DST projections up from ETR. Right now.
The Bills have the highest projection on the slate of 8.64.
The Steelers aren't even the lowest, they're the fourth
lowest at 5.63. There's a three-point gap in
defensive projection for the most volatile and random fantasy
scoring thing we have. Like, you can't just now wave
any defense. Like, I mean, like literally any
defense is in play in this contest.
But I do like Liam's point about TJ Watt being out and I I kind
of feel like the the Pittsburgh Full Fade's gonna come in over
the 67%. Number I do agree with that the
fade will be will be higher on that sentiment.
Is there a defense that jumps out to you is, is that, you
know, going somewhere 'cause that's like, are you playing,
are you playing Packers D, are you playing box D?
We haven't. We haven't got to Brown's
Texans, but I think that's a that's a good defense game,
right? People don't.
The Browns have a good D and then people don't.
You know you. You're going against Joe Flacco?
The other one I could see, I'm, I called it the kicker game, but
if people don't know what to do with the Eagles, I could see
Eagles D against Baker being a little.
Yeah, that's a good one. Let me see if I can.
Because it's hard to find other ones to pull away from.
Yeah, it's true. Yeah, I could take this the
Eagles down to two and give them some some more D.
And The thing is is like, it's like all these narratives.
Like they can't all just be true.
Like you can't say Browns demega Chalk, but then everyone wants
to play the Ravens losing and the Browns going in and beating
them. Like if you're playing the
Browns as a win, then you're playing a skill position player
like. Yeah.
See, I don't think there's going to be mega chalk on defense.
I think you'll see a lot of spread.
Out. Well, The funny thing is I have
that as the Browns. I have the Browns as very chalky
at deep, so I'm at 32 and actually I'm going to raise them
at 33 right now. So I've got that.
It's just that, you know, people want to play Amari and people
want to play in joke. I'm curious where you have the
dolphins D because are are enough people going to talk
about the weather in Mahomes hasn't been great.
And does do the Dolphins get soft faded through their D?
That's a good one. I have Sanders hire.
We'll get there soon, but we have.
Yeah, maybe that's a good one to just get a little percent there.
That would be another. One, looking at the projections,
and I don't think the market will get there, but Texans have
the third best projection for defense on this slate.
So. As a underdog?
Yeah. Wow.
That's a home, home versus Flacco.
So I can see people maybe talking themselves into that a
bit. Yeah, Brown's Texans is the
defense game. The defense game, yeah.
Yeah. Ray called.
Yeah, that's that's where it comes from.
Yeah, I could see maybe having that wrong, where it's actually
the people play the Texans D and don't fade them much.
So maybe, maybe I'll just do that.
Let's see. Yeah.
So what if I take the Steelers down?
I might take the Steelers down a lot and go to like 10% without
JJ Watt. And that's good.
I mean, I will. I want to be way overweight.
Uh stage D yeah that's that's the biggest mistake people make
in this and we've made it in the past two is you just you just
randomize your defenses. We know nothing.
It it doesn't even matter if you project the right winner like
you. Miami Miami was this team last
year where their full fade was incredibly high.
They were starting Skylar Thompson in the road.
They're on the road in Buffalo and there was no chance they
were going to be able to win. They actually competed a little
bit, scored a defensive touchdown.
Their kicker was also a smash play.
He made three field goals. I'm looking at it right now,
They they were the best defense and kicker play by like a long
shot. And because then when people did
want to play Miami, they wanted to play Tyreke and everything.
But it was like you just be willing to play the kicker in
DST. You don't want to play because
if you get that off, if you hit it, if you get that right, like
it can be a massive win. Especially Pittsburgh's going to
lose, right? Like yeah, you should.
You'd be willing to mix in their kickers and their DS cause like
that. It's the one, the one and dumb
element. Yeah, Mike Tomlin will have no
no problem dialing up some field goals like down fourteen in the
third quarter, right? In the wind, yeah, the kicker
element is a little bit tricky, with the wind, really bad.
Everything. Let's let's go to Brown's Texan
since we were kind of Segwaying to that as it pertains to
defense. Browns are are definitely, I
think one of the trickier ones for sure, because like you said,
the most logical place for it is this ownership and defense.
It does feel like the defensive game.
And except, you know, Amari just dropped fucking 50 on this same
defense a couple weeks ago. David Najoku has been a tight
end premium monster on a slate where we are starved for good
tight ends. So I do think those two, how you
have it, there's going to be a lot of pull here.
Ultimately, I wonder, does the Cooper Najoku, do you just shrug
your shoulder, play the Cleveland defense?
Like, is that what the field ends up doing?
This is a really interesting projection where you just have
it like 1/3, a third, a third. And I mean, I guess that makes
sense like. I know sometimes there there's
been a couple calls in the in the chat for me to basically do
that on stuff and he this is one of the cases where I did this is
the where you can just go you know there's people are going to
split it three ways. None of these paths are sneaky.
I think the more I think about it, I think people are going to
feel more comfortable with Amari just given a massive ceiling
that he showed, you know, in week 16 and feeling like you
need to capture those types of weeks in this tournament, like
what can't you catch up from? And Amari delivered one of
those. It's like you either have it in
your in your life to win or you don't and you're not.
And Joku's a nice, comfortable tight end play, but I think
Kelsey will get enough ownership that people aren't going to feel
like they need in Joku. And so if you're going to play a
Brown, I think more people end up playing Cooper than a joke.
And I could even see the split going more to Cooper than I have
it. Yeah, Yep.
And yeah, Cooper was a little banged up.
I think he practiced in full today, so there shouldn't be any
lingering. He's basically good to go.
Yeah, he's good to go. Yeah, I do think these three
separate in a way that your ownership is very correct on
like. It's if one of yeah, I agree
with that. If one of them came in light,
like let's just play a hypothetical game.
I'm trying to think if one of them came in 10 percentage
points under the rest of them, who is it?
And I I I can't answer that. I don't know either.
I was hoping you. I was hoping you were gonna tell
me. I'm the one who projected these
numbers. I was excited.
I was. I had a ton of anticipation
there. Whoa, that's.
Good enough? Yup.
Yeah, it it's hard too, because then you don't get a clean
leverage angle here. I guess my only thing would be
I'd like maybe want to be more overweight Cooper and Najoku and
and underweight Cleveland. DST maybe.
Maybe you do some more underweight like like a hard
fade kind of. Or overweight, a hard fade, if
the field's not doing that but did.
The Cleveland DST is the only thing that jumps out to me as a
as a big fade at that percent. Oh, Hopkins is hurt.
So getting some kicker. Chasing the The chat is chasing
some chasing kickers. Let's do it.
So what's? All right?
I don't know who this I don't know who their kicker's going to
be. We'll stick around.
It's Riley Patterson, they're saying in the chat.
OK, all right. Maybe 1%.
I don't know. Oh yeah.
But yeah, this one's, this one's tough.
I don't know. These bull.
And Joku comes over Kelsey. Liam says.
I don't think so. Just because I think the.
I think the Chiefs are going to boil down to Kelsey and Pacheco.
And here you've got 2 like, I don't I?
In order for that to happen, I think in Joku has to be the most
popular Brown. I don't think he will be.
Yeah, those notes about Amari's huge game coming in Houston were
not something I had thought of yet, and it makes a lot of like
I was thinking in Joku initially, but Amari just had a
monster game, yeah. I I could see these being one
where we flip over the cards and we're kind of like, oh whoa,
like the field all did Najoku or like they all did a like I I
could see this one being really. Hard.
I think it's more likely to be the field all did Amari.
Yeah. I might raise Amari.
Yeah, I might go 38 and 25 my. Initial gut was Njoku 'cause,
you know, famously Titan Premium.
Yeah. It is Titan Premium.
And then Joku people have been like, flackles unlocked in Joku.
Like every week he's getting 15 targets.
He's so sick. Like, I mean, that's what I'm
hearing at least. Yeah.
Here's Here's one thing I'll say.
So I've got tight end ownership at 1.1, and I don't think that
people are aggressive about playing tight end this year.
It was 1.37 last year. Two years ago we actually had a
good group, it was 1.81, but in 2020, where do I have it?
In 2020 it was at 1.25. So this would be the lowest that
we've had in a while. But it's a really weak group and
so I think people are going to figure out who their tight end
is and they're not really going to play tight end in the flex
very often, which will keep, I think, in in Joku in check
because Kelsey's not going to get lost.
Yep. But I also think it boosts and
joker up a little bit because when you're figuring out who
your tight end is, it kind of is a tier of two.
Like, who else is with those guys?
Kittle's not because of CMC. Ferguson's not.
Laporte's hurt, you know. I mean I don't know where
Goddard, but like there's you guys just made a great point
about Andrews coming back and hurting likely.
I can't even find it on the tight end.
I want to play. And Joku has been a He's the
Jayden Reed of this team where he just helped people win
titles, right? And he's been really good down
the stretch and people are like. But Amari did too.
I mean, Amari. Amari was on the winning BBM
team even though he didn't play in Week 17.
I mean that's the kind of Week 16 Amari had.
So I think people overvalue consistency.
Amari had the monster game, he didn't have a good game the week
prior and Joku's been so consistent.
And I I just think people like that, you know?
Yeah, I think what, you know, what we're arriving at is just
there's you can make good arguments for all like the DST
feels like just the the game that you want to get that done
with. And yet Najoku and Cooper are
both like great plays in almost either scenario, like a loss or
or a win. Like if they get in a shootout
loss with the Texans. I mean, either Amari or Najoku
could just go absolutely Ham, yeah.
I I think people like the Browns.
I think you're going to see Amari and a joke.
I mean, when we were talking the we're talking the Lamar stuff
and the Justin Tucker, you know, kind of kind of a path there of
how you fade. Lamar, you just play Justin
Tucker. Who can beat them?
Who can beat them. The chat was literally just the
Browns, the Browns, the Browns, the Browns.
So I think Amari or in Joku plus Tucker will be a pretty common
combo. Yep.
Interesting. All right, let's talk some
Texans here. In this same game last night,
Nikko ended up in the Boomer opto.
I wasn't so sure about that. Partly because of this Najoku
Amari stuff we've been discussing.
Do have him as the highest projected Texan.
The more we kind of talk this through here, him at 46%.
I do really wonder if the Houston DST and fade come up and
Nikko comes down pretty significantly because of the
Amari Najoku stuff. So who are people not fading
then? The box.
Yeah, with all the banged up stuff with the Eagles, I I'm
just trying to talk it through. It's mainly the Nikko number.
Just seems high to me. But with no G tank I it doesn't.
It's scared to the Browns D like I hear all the time.
But there's no one else you would play from the Texans right
there there, and he doesn't have them.
Plus playing. Anyone else?
I would like a little Schultz in our portfolio, but I agree no
one else from is going to is going to get played let.
Me see if I can go make this work with Tampa Bay, like I
could take Tampa Bay D down Well, they're already pretty
low. You could tell me I'm wrong on
this. I'm I'm just thinking like
Collins of all the spots when you're making these tough
decisions and if you're telling me I have to decide between like
Browns DST or Amaria Najoku or like Nico in Houston DST fade.
Like I want to be on the Brown skill position like Houston DST
fade side. No, I think you're right.
Like, I don't think it does feel high to me too.
It feels high to have Nico that high.
No one wants to play that much, Nico, but.
He's the obvious play. It doesn't feel as high to me,
OK personally. Does this feel because it was
higher than this? Does this feel high or?
I I hear Pete's point because the Browns have been just so
fantastic for skill production since Flacco took over.
But I feel like the market does still feel that way about CJ
Stroud and the Texans. I know the Browns D scary.
But I I mean, I think of a Texans as a fun one to jam a
player in in this contest. And then I'm like, well, have to
play Nico. Like there's.
I mean, I'm not playing Noah Brown.
I'm not playing Dalton Schultz. I'm not playing Devin Singletary
like it's Nico. I'm not saying I want to be that
high, but I can see that I don't think that number is crazy. 40
or 46. This range doesn't seem crazy to
me. Yeah.
No, I think it's tough. It's actually tough to get it
below 40, because how what percentage of the field fades
the Texans, who are not like an obvious, obvious fate?
It's the. Closest spread.
It's the only spread inside three points right now.
I mean, that's the other part. People like to play both sides
of the close games. Yeah, Butts Eagles is -3 two.
Yeah, inside of it. Like inside of the three points,
it's 2 1/2 in in. So I run.
I went around and tried to find I'm I'm gonna bump him to 43 and
take this down to 25 or no. They down to 13 I think is added
to it. It's interesting.
I might be wrong on this too. I'm I'm just sharing my my
opinion on it. It feels a little bit different
than Pete's, but like he said, like he he might be wrong.
This is a tricky one for sure. I don't, I don't feel confident
at all. But I can see why you landed on
that number. When I try to think of like,
where else it goes, 'cause you have a high fade percent for a
team that's home 2 1/2 point dogs.
I mean, I guess I'm not that confident the Texans are going
to lose. It's just how do you?
It's like Nico. I think, honestly, I think what
it is, man, is that I think people want to play a Brown more
than they. So they're going to think about
the Browns 1st and then they're going to think about everything
else and they're coming, Oh, I don't have a Texan.
That's fine. Yeah, that's the thing.
Like I. Maybe.
I I agree with that. I don't think people are going
to be like shit I don't have, but they're also going to say
that about a buck, right? They'll be like a shit.
I don't have a buck. Whatever.
Right. Even though I I personally think
that's a mistake, but I am, I do agree that that would be the
thought process. Yeah, that makes sense.
I guess it I wasn't thinking about it as directly bucks verse
Texans, but it does kind of come down to that, huh?
And they're the same bet plus 2 1/2 + 3 at home.
It's just that the Eagles are the defending NFC champ with
Jalen Hurts and and people still want to believe they're better
than they actually are right now.
Yeah, Brown Browns are bringing Joe Flacco into town.
Here's a question. How much Kaimi Fairbarren
Cleveland D do we Get? I think a good, I think a good
bet. Yeah.
I saw Shorty in the chats and Texans kicker will be popular.
I could. I could see taking a a little
bit more from the DST and giving it to fair Baron.
I would love to do that, but there's so many fucking kickers.
There's There's so many kickers. You.
You just don't want to do it 'cause you're the rest of your
night's going to be tweaking 1. Percent, There's gonna be
tweaking kicker percentages. There's so many guys in this
tournament where you're like, oh, this kicker and it feels a
little low. This is a sneaky good kicker
spot. It's like, I don't know, you can
make a case for a ton of kickers.
Tucker's too high. That's what they're saying.
I don't know. I mean, yeah, Tucker could be
Tucker's too high compared to what he probably should be.
But if I guess that's really the whole ownership this year comes
down to getting the right read on Allen versus Lamar which then
has trickle down effects to, you know, how people play, how many
people fade. The Ravens.
But I think if we if these ownership projections are
correct on the quarterbacks and Tucker's not too high because no
one people are going to fade the Ravens as part of their non
Lamar picks. Yeah, yeah.
I think, yeah. This is a combined fade of 56%
for a team that I I just feel like people are going to, are
56% of people going to pick them to lose out, right?
I mean, I know you're saying there's going to be some line
UPS that are going to play both sides to fade in this game,
which is just stupid, obviously, but.
Also just the reason why I think like again looking at the
underdog ADP, so Nico has an ADP of 40.
CJ Stroud a lot of times will even go undrafted.
He's at 52. Sometimes, like the Nico drafter
is like a Lamar or Purdy team and they kind of set that up to
cover their their buy. But like, people are not in on
the Texans relative to the AD PS for the Browns, where Amari goes
early, Ford goes early, Najoku goes early.
You know, like people like the market likes the Browns.
It's a good point. They want to bet them to make a
run because of their D. And because of that, like kind
of clean concentration of skill position players.
Yeah. It's not as high as last year.
The Jags were faded by 39% of the fuel.
So that's obviously quite a bit lower than 56%, but the charges
were at 6%. So you had the field very
clearly picking a winner there, which they were wrong about and
overconfident to do. But I think it's just more fun
if you're going to pick one of these to pick a Brown.
And so, yeah, I. Think well we do have combined
ownership on Amarian and Joku approaching 65% and Nico at 40.
Mm hmm. Yep.
No. Yeah, I only have the Browns at
34% and the Texans or sorry, 36% fade and the Texans at 56% fade.
So I'm projecting that people will pick the Browns to win this
game. Yeah, yeah.
And and Nico falls into that category of, you know, feels
like a comfy click, right? Like he can get there and
winning scripts if if they win and head to Baltimore, like you
still feel good about having Nico, they lose in a shootout,
you feel good about having Nico like that.
That part makes sense to me. Yep.
Two years ago, I think it. I think they were playing the
Rams. The Cardinals in round one were
59%, although I get they might have been on the road, but that
was like one of those we we we sometimes see this type of this
type of team get faded pretty hard.
Yep. All right, we got our final game
in the AFC. We got the Dolphins and Chiefs.
Where do we want to start? Let's start, Chiefs.
We've talked to Kelsey a lot and I don't think I'm super, super
bullish on him. I I have him at 45%.
I mean, he's historically been quite a bit higher than that,
more like 55% at least so. Really quick.
I just wanna I just wanna agree with you Pete.
The more that I thought about that as we were finishing up in
Houston that like I just I think you're right.
I think I think Nico does come in low.
I I think people fade, Houston. They they're afraid of
Cleveland's D All that stuff just made more sense as you guys
were saying it anyway, you convinced me on that.
I think that's how I want to do it.
I want to play their you. You you think people they'll
come in even lower than 40%, Nico?
Yeah, I think you guys are right.
I was kind of fighting back on that, but I.
Well, I have it at 40%, so I'm not right if that's true, so you
well you can't. Play any other Texans.
I think the fade might be even higher on them.
OK. The kicker and D soft.
I think they're going to be a really popular soft fade,
Houston. Yeah, yeah, the kicker might
come up there. I might have to go play with the
kicker all. Right.
Anyway, let's go to KC. Maybe.
Maybe if if Tucker's too high, maybe it's because people play
Fair Baron a little more. So we got Chiefs pulled up here.
Kelsey, who did end up in the Boomer Opto last night. 45%.
Pacheco at 36. Rice at 8, Bucker at 5, Mahomes
at 4. Obviously this one is breaking
everyone's brains just because you know Kelsey has been a
staple of the Boomer opto the top play projecting for 3.5
games every playoffs. Tight end, premium.
Just like the Stone Cold nuts. And now he's looked awful this
year. This team doesn't have good
form. We got a cold weather game,
Pacheco's back, all this stuff. And yet I'm with you.
Like when you still slice and dice this like you brought
Pacheco up like a pretty good amount.
In a way I agree with and it's still like people aren't going
to fully fade the Chiefs and like Kelsey still is going to be
the guy almost what similar to the McCaffrey thing where the
tight end slate is bad, like there's not a lot of places to
go. There's really not.
And this is like I'm not projecting, I'm projecting tight
end to be the lowest owned in total that it's been in years
only 1.1 tight end. So that's something I've like
really focused on of getting that down, getting that number
down, not letting it kind of just float kind of at 1.4 or 1.5
where it typically is like this is a different landscape.
We're going to see less ownership of the tight end
position than usual, but that's this number reflects that.
And so like how much lower can it get from here?
I mean, not that much lower because people need to play a
tight end. And Kelsey has been Mega Chalk
in this tournament 66% in 2020. He was 54% in 2021 and he was
74% last year. I think people ultimately are
like fuck it, I'll play Kelsey. I think that's that's where.
He sums it up perfectly. Fuck it.
I'll play Kelsey. I do.
That's what I say to myself every time I take him in a
Gauntlet draft. I'm like, oh, I started with
Debo and Iuke and Mahomes and Kelsey are here.
Fuck it, I'll take Kelsey. Like if I'm taking Mahomes,
like, I'll just tell myself this story that they find their form
again. Well, I mean if you are taking
Mahomes and we, we were talking about this a little bit earlier,
we've done the thing before. It's like how do these teams win
if you are taking Mahomes? They have to have somebody step
up and it's not going to be fucking MVS or or Sky bore like
it's not happening, right, Like it could be Rashi Rice, but it's
probably Kelsey, right? It's probably Kelsey has a good
run if they win, if they go on a three-game winning streak,
right? I mean, yeah.
And like, I think the other thing about Kelsey is you don't.
It's like let's you play this game on the other side.
Most people are playing Tyreek. So you go, Tyreek, Kelsey don't
have to think about that one too much.
Great. I can move on.
If you're just filling this in. Oh, I got to figure out this
game. Oh, Tyreek Kelsey, you don't
care who wins. Whatever.
I think that's the key point. People do not have the stones to
play Tyreek and like hard fade or even soft fade.
The Chiefs. I don't think people have.
The stones to do that, that's right.
It's an easier I'll have my cake and eat it too.
Yeah. This is the game where you pick
a winner and you're better. Off.
No one's going to pick a winner, yes, or they'll pick.
They'll pick a winner in their head.
But it's the Chiefs and they still play Tyreek.
Yeah, but you think you're going to get a lot of that or you will
get some Pacheco, whereas I'm picking the winner.
I mean, 36%'s pretty high. So you you're going to see some
Pacheco. They establish the run, but I'm
still going to take Tyriko on the comeback.
And you know, if the Chiefs, if the Chiefs lose, it's not the
end of the world. Because I didn't lose my tight
end. I just lost a flex.
All this talk about PLC though, all those talk about Kelsey
though, did make me think that in joke who's got to come up a
little bit like he is the clear other tight end play in my mind
from everything we've went through.
I agree it. The problem is he's not the,
he's just not the clear play on his own team.
That's what makes. It hard.
You have to. It's just like you have to play
tight end. So when you if you want, I think
people are going to want to fake Kelsey, right?
They're going to feel like they want to, and if they do, they're
not going to want to go farther than than Joku.
They're not going to want to go to Dallas Gotter or wherever.
They would have to go after that point.
Yeah, but I that sort of reflected the numbers with only
1.1 tight ends projected. Like it's I've kind of got it.
There's a little bit of like there will be some people who
play 2 tight ends, not not very many, but that's going.
To be kind of Kelsey and Joku. It's all kind of Kelsey and Doku
and maybe I've got got too high, but you know as we've talked
about that we'll we'll learn more about that soon.
But that's another story. Maybe it goes to enjoy.
A very fun pivot is you do Najoku KC DST as a pivot on the
Browns DST Kelsey. Like that's a clean one and
where like, I kind of like the Najoku side.
That one is fun. That is fun.
I like that a lot. You're picking Miami to win out,
right? It's not crazy.
That's really fun. Yeah, I I think Miami beating
the Chiefs is not crazy. No.
People will kind of play it as it's crazy.
Like I don't think you're going to see a lot of KC.
I mean I have KC being faded at 7%.
Maybe butker comes down a little bit and the defense comes up
slightly because of the because of the weather.
I was just kind of thinking about this is like it's the
Chiefs. People want to play through the
kicker, but maybe not as much. Yeah, I think that DS.
Well, yeah, I think you're right that there's not going to be a
high number of total fades. But yeah, as it relates to the
kicker and the D, it's probably the D over the kicker here.
And then maybe the Texans, you were talking about flipping back
some of the kicker. Yeah, that gives me some kicker
numbers to play with. Yeah, maybe I'll do even another
one. Yeah, found found some kicker
guys. I've.
Never seen. I got some kicker numbers to
play with. It's so.
Hard to find kicker numbers, man.
I It's literally here. Here.
Yeah. Where are we going with this?
Houston. Houston.
Let me get that fair Baron baby. Now he's up to 15.
Love it. All right, let's let's wrap this
up with dolphins all. Right.
KC is going to be a fun one to talk to on our next couple
shows. Just like how to play them.
I mean, it's yes, it's a fun one.
I mean, there's a lot of these that.
I mean, we spent a lot of time on that Bucks, Eagle Spot, Super
Fun Texans, Brown, Super fun Chiefs, Dolphins.
Like, there's some really fun. Like, even if you just want to
eat some of that chalk we talked about, like, you're not going to
have to get too Galbran when you have three to four games with
legitimate choose your own adventures.
Yeah, no, it's it's going to be. I think it's going to be a fun
year. I think the big thing for me is
I just gotta, I gotta get this Lamar Allen thing, right.
But yeah, people, it'll be interesting to see if people are
more willing to fade the Dolphins than I'm thinking.
I mean the the vibes and the Dolphins are really low.
People saying they haven't beat a good team all year.
I mean, they literally beat the Cowboys in Week 16, but you
know, you get blown out by the Ravens and then you lose to the
Bills to close the season. People forget that.
So. It's this weather narrative
stuff too. There was a John Ewing tweet
that went viral earlier. Miami Dolphins and cold weather
games less than 40° since 2017. They're O and nine straight up
and two and seven against the spread in those cold weather
games. So like that that the cold
weather Dolphins narrative. It's picking up to the point our
guy, Hassan says to his brain is gonna freeze.
So. Anyways, Tyreek Hill 73% boasted
9%, HN 6%, Sanders 6%, Miami DST 4%.
I don't really have anything to say about the Tyreek number,
maybe even a smidge light if people just kind of shrug their
shoulders at the running back stuff again and those both come
down a smidge, I still think it's insane that Mostert would
be higher than a Chan, but like the market seemed to continue to
do that, so. Dude, I had a Chan higher until
like a couple hours ago. I was like, I've drafted a bunch
of draftking stuff. I've drafted a bunch of underdog
stuff and Mostert goes 1st. And you know, Mostert's the one
who scores the touchdowns and sounds like he's going to play.
So I think people are going to check to see if Mostert's going
to be active, and if he is, they're going to play Mostert,
not HN. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
That's the only thing that would massively boost HN.
If or you know, if Mostert were out, I think you could even.
Not only would he swallow up all of Mostert, but you could
probably pull 5 to 10% from Tyreek too, if it would.
There was full clarity that it was.
Just if there's full clarity, I think Tyreek comes down.
I don't think anyone feels great about this Tyreek number.
Yeah, would love to be under this Tyreek number, but how do
you do it, you know, and I don't, I don't.
I wonder how many people are going to fade them out.
I think people are going to start to fade them, I was.
Just going to. Say that the chat, the chat's
been comfortable with it all night.
I think there'll be some some higher fades than you have here.
OK. But you've got Packers,
Steelers, those are going to be mega faded.
We just talked about how Houston will probably be faded as much
or more than I as I have it, you know, and then that only leaves
you one other team. So then you're definitely
playing the Bucks, you're definitely playing the Lions,
You're definitely playing the Eagles.
So it's like, I don't know, it's like it's difficult to.
Then you start to compare it. Now you're like, oh, Tyreek
versus A.J. Brown, Tyreek versus Mike Evans.
This is only 11% on a team that's you know that is 4 1/2
point. We were just, we almost, we're
just saying like people aren't going to play them to to
actually have a legit shot to win this game and you're talking
about this Tyreke number being incredibly high.
I don't think it's going to go to the running backs.
I think it's going to go to the fate.
I mean that's just I think there will be people that that when
they don't want to play Tyreke, they fade it.
I think I think I agree with Gretch.
So how high do you think this fate can get?
I've got an 11%. I mean, Detroit's at 15.
Wait, you have it at 11, I say. Or did you just boost it to 11?
No, it's at 11 total the total The total fades.
Kicker and D and Kicker D. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
I'm I'm, I'm saying like full fade being the one that comes
up. But but I guess what I'm what
I'm asking is in total total. Fades total, fades get
approached 20%. Yeah.
The Troy's only at 15. You think you could see more
Miami fade than Detroit fade? OK, what about in relation to
the Eagles? That's a Dome.
Game 7%. I don't think they're getting
the 27%. OK.
My I. I just think the thing like a
lot of people just think the dolphins are dead.
Like they they they're talking about the dolphins as if the
spread is 7 1/2. Yes, that's right.
And Tyreke is still someone you want to play a lot of and he's
still going to have a really high number.
Yeah, but once you you go past that and you go, where else do
we go? That's why I think it maybe
isn't. The running backs are banged up
and people are talking about Miami's dead.
It's like Tyreke's a uniquely appealing, skilled position
player. But I don't know if I want to
put the running backs on a team that's dead.
And this Pat was one of the spots that I had.
I had flagged this one before again, kind of what I want to
do. But I wonder if the field's
going there too. Like, do you come up on Jaden
Reed and you come down on Packers full fade because you're
playing that Dome game best receiver And then if you're full
fading, the Dolphins there where it's like not that outlandish to
think like Jaden Reed could keep pace with Tyreke if this game is
just gross. Yeah.
I mean, yeah, you're kind of betting on the game environment.
I could see that a bit. All right.
So I did that. I brought that up a little bit.
I think this works. So this now has Miami at 15%
total fade, but do you guys think that we could see even
more fade than this? I'd probably put up at 18 or 19,
but I think I mean this is close.
This looks closer to right to. Me.
Yeah, yours. You.
You're always going to have a better holistic view on this
than us. We're all just the ones like
nitpicking in a vacuum, and then you got to be able to pull it
from somewhere. But I was trying to think
logically of, I do think just how people are thinking about
this game environment, they're going to be more comfortable
with a full fade in a way where, yeah, I, I.
Think you're coming off. That's when I'm at Soupy.
The only reason I say 18 or 19 is because you said the Lions
were 15. And I think people are going to
like the Lions Rams game and it don't.
And they're, you know, they're going to feel comfortable.
Got it. I got it to 17.
Really low, yeah. The the the Lions full fade
could be really low. I think I'd have the Lions full
fade at very low. Oh, sorry.
I think that let's come soft fade.
Yeah. Some soft fades.
Let. Me.
See, no. I have the lions full fade at 5
which is probably too high. Yeah.
So I could bring that down. All right.
Yeah, I I also, I I agree. Like people aren't going to want
to play. Yeah, that's true.
They. Cold weather.
Well, I found more kicker points.
That's good. More kicker points I need.
I need those percentages, kicker percentages come down.
Yeah, that's probably right. He could be as low as 2.
'Cause you think about how the field is gonna think through,
like the the the outcomes. And I do think they're gonna
play the Dolphins in a really binary way.
Like Tyriq does Tyriq things or like the Dolphins just implode
into his brain freezes. Like, I I feel like those are
like the dichotomies. Whereas you can live in the
margins more with like that Texans Browns game.
Oh, you know, fair Baron, you know, kicks a bunch of field
goals or the like. It's a little easier I think to
kind of hedge it or middle it in that game environment where the
Dolphins are like a a roar shark test for for how you want to
think about. People are definitely going to
play the DS in the cold weather and they're going to play the
kickers in the domes. I mean, it's just like it's too
simple, too, too much of A clear line in this, this slate.
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Well, I got fairbearing up to
19%, so that's pretty sweet. There you go.
The kicker. The kicker numbers.
So people wanted us to to draft one because we drafted one on
the Boomer Opto. I'll I'll register us for one.
We can build a A35 right now, Gretsch.
You're our back in the saddle tonight.
You. Who do you want to start us
with? I want to start us with Cooper
Cup all. Right, here we go.
Oh, by the way, because I was thinking about the bracket as we
did this, we're working on a little bracket tool, but it's
not out yet. But I wanted to tease that easy,
I talked to him today and he's working on a tool for this as
well. If you're in the ship chasing
Discord or the legendary upside Discord, he's going to share a
version of his tool that has my ownership projections already
loaded in. And then you can use that to
kind of generate, you can kind of create a bracket and then SIM
out what the optimal line up is with that bracket in there,
which is a. It's pretty cool.
So yeah, yeah. And it's just like the
simplicity of you also have this drop down where you can just
like fill out the bracket in his spreadsheet as well, which just
keeping track of the bracket that you're filling out is is
really helpful. Yelp All right, so we got Cooper
Cup. Pat, where do you want to go?
OK, let's see. Let's.
We always get the fun leverage picks out of the way 1st and
then we're like, shit, we need to check this up.
I'm going to steal one of yours, Pete.
I'm going to go KCDST. OK, nice.
Echo winner in the KC Miami game.
Well, and I'll, I'll, I'll piggyback on it with the, yeah.
That's the. That's the pairing.
All right, back to you, Gretch. Oh, that doesn't have to be your
pick if you don't want. I think we all trust me.
I'm I'm a pro with this on on the roll cat all turned into an
alpha and picked 3 picks in a row for our lineup.
So I'm gonna piggyback off cup and do 'cause then you gotta get
into a running back pivot. I got two that I want to play.
Here we go. I'll do.
I'll do Aaron Jones. I don't want to make our
quarterback decision yet. The other running back I want to
play was was James Cook. Obviously when I say the
quarterback thing. All right.
Back to you, Pat. I'm going to go Allen.
OK, Josh Allen. That makes sense.
I'll just be. I'll be the chalk guy.
I'll throw in CD lamb here. I'll I'll take Tyreke as well.
We got the KCD. Mm hmm.
I'll go.
Amen, Raw. Get chunky there, OK?
I'm gonna, I'm gonna stay chalky with CMC, I think with like the
Aaron Jones Cup, Nijoku DST. So now we're down to two Flex
and a kicker. We, I mean, so we we need.
We need an eagle or a Bach. An Eagle Bach And we don't have
a Raven yet either. And yeah, and then the Texans is
the other one we're probably headed toward a a fade on
potentially. What did I say?
It's it's everyone's going to forget about the Texans and go.
I forgot to pick them. Who cares?
By the way, someone asked earlier if I if this sheet is
available, if the ownership it is available in the ship chasing
Discord or legendary. Upside, if you're a member of
either, then you'll get it. I'm going to take Zay Flowers
and plug the tough stuff. I mean, Mike Evans is one of my
favorite parents, but I don't. I like to play both sides of
that game. I don't want to pick Tampa to
win on this team where we already kind of pick some other.
If he wins, it becomes a crazy bracket.
But I don't know. I'll let you.
I'll let you just say I. I think we go A.J.
Brown, man, we just got we. He's gonna be fine.
That's what I was. Gonna.
They're gonna win. Yeah, that's what I was gonna do
if I didn't do say Flowers was A.J.
Brown. And so then I mean do we we go
chalk with McLaughlin here or fair Baron I think either are
probably fine I. Think, Yeah, I think McLaughlin.
Yeah. All right.
Yeah. This is this is a nice.
It's a fun team. Yeah, it has some of the like
subtle pivots like I would, I would call like the Josh Allen,
the Cooper Cup, Zay Flowers. But then I think combined the
Aaron Jones is a big one, right. When you consider the big fade
there in getting off of the Kyren and then leveraging that
with the Cup who will be the third most popular like this
already gets you into pretty unique territory.
So the full team here for the audio listeners Josh Allen, CMC,
Aaron Jones, Cooper Cup, CD, Lamb Amanras, St.
Brown, Zayflowers, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, David
Najoku, Chase McLaughlin and Kansas City DST.
And just like again, thinking through how we talked out these
lineups and like even last night, I am really convinced
that we're not going to see that many too tight in lineups.
It's like it doesn't even come into the conversation as you're.
Building that flex like it's just like.
Afterthought. Yeah, I think the only way is it
AJ Brown's health is, is, you know, really in question.
And then maybe we get a little bit more Goddard because no
one's going to feel that good about Goddard to where they're
going to come off and joke who or Kelsey.
It's just going to be more like, I guess I'll, I don't want to
fade the Eagles. So I'll just take Goddard.
Yelp all right, the two of Freeze lineup is in the.
Two of freeze. And we picked ACSD.
It sounds like he came out with his own line of popsicles called
2DS or something. What?
Hassan didn't consider.
What if two is brain freezing? Is is what we need.
It unlocks. It.
Oh man, we had, we had floated before the show doing a quick
underdog draft. Do you guys want to do that or
or? No, let's do it.
Let's hit it. I'm down.
If you guys want to do it, let's do it.
Because we you guys want to do a big boy draft.
Oh, let's do it. Let's do it.
All right. Yeah, we we'll probably have a
couple seconds to fill this. I would imagine we're going to
hop in a a a big mitten if anyone wants to to get in here.
It's $500, only a 216 entry and the advance on it is two of six,
one of four, one of three, six, only a six person final and we
did. I did a couple of these with
easy earlier today, but a a very nice structure.
Pete, check the the ship chasing mentions to your post for
tonight. Diego had a a pretty good one
for us. Oh, the karate.
The picture of karate. Tried to sell the salvia.
Yeah, it's. Yeah, that's pretty photo.
Yeah, the, you know, we got the old Rolodex of Karaine photos
back when I used to have to, you know, troll through his old
Facebook profile to round those up.
That's right. That was a.
He looks like he's in some type of like boiler room movie or
something, you know, where he's it's like that like early 2000s,
like fight Clubby, kind of like I'm wearing a suit, but I'm also
like, I'm on something. My guy Chris does such a good
job with the thumbs. He actually does Pat's thumbs at
legendary upside too. But there is a part of me that
is a little, you know, wistfully nostalgic for, you know, going
through Pat and Sam Hoppins your Facebook page.
You know, find an old you on like, what?
Did I have you on like a scooter or something?
One of the photos I've had some of.
Those photos are so old now, like the one from tonight.
I'm like, I was probably like 20-6 years old.
It's like a while ago. Yeah.
Have you done any of the big mittens, Pat?
I I didn't. I've done.
I think I tried to do one last night and it didn't fill.
I tried to do the the original big mitten.
I did. AI didn't get.
I forget how many I got in but. Well.
Sure. We had R4 that we did with the
the ship chasters. I checked the I checked those
out the other day just seeing if like how those had aged and they
seemed like they had done pretty well.
I mean as far as how they aged bracket wise.
We didn't have any Jags, right? We had.
Nope, we avoided all Jags in that.
Nice. That's that was a big lamb nine
we got we did a buck stack there and we did a ram stack on.
So those I feel pretty good about both those.
Pat, let's just reiterate for people, if you're in the ship
chasing Discord, the link is already in there.
As far as legendary upside Subs, what's the best way they're
going to get it? I'm going to e-mail it out
tonight and put it on the site. It's not currently on the site.
I want it to go through and get your guys feedback on everything
and tweak stuff before emailing it out but and posting it, but
I'll do that after the show. You can get the link is in the
ship chasing Discord and it's in the legendary Upside Discord in
the best ball channel. So that's that's where to find
it right now, but it'll be on the site soon.
The We are off to the races here friends and family draft copper
prices at the 11. I actually don't know Alex
Sterling. We're at 13, EDN 14, Liam 1/5
and Easy 16, so potentially a stay in your lane kind of draft,
but it's still hard not to be kind of trampling all over each
other when you're you're going for some of these stacks.
Where's Liam? So, OK, so the bills.
Five. Well, this is the.
Bill Stack. This is the question here of
like do we do you do the Josh Allen at 1/3?
I mean, Liam's going to double tap bills at at the turn no
matter what we do. So I.
Oh, Allen, goes one. Wow you.
Guys like Lamb. Yeah, yeah, Lamb's nice.
I like lamb. I like LAMP.
What's the advanced structure in this?
Yeah, it's, it's very favorable 2 of 6, which is same as
everything, one of four which is obviously very different and
then one of three. So the hardest round is actually
the divisional round one of four, because otherwise you're
1/3. 1413 final. And all the money still is in
the the conference championship better.
Even if you make it to the conference championship the one
of three, you're still not even min cashing if you finish in
18th place. So Liam does go Dick's.
Have fun. I told you, man, he's going to
dabble. Tab Bills, he's going James Cook
right now. This this port.
Oh my God, Sterling. He's got a brand to have pulled.
Liam only knows one bracket and it's the one where the Bills are
in the title game. So even if Alan's gone, you just
play the Bills without Alan. So who knows what alx will do
here? I assume Copper will take Purdy.
So do you guys want to push push DAC?
Oh shit, that actually changes things because EDN just timed
out on Purdy I think. Yeah, holy cow, EDN timing out
on a $500 draft with two bye week quarterbacks.
Yikes. Which way do you guys want to go
here? Well, do you think we get, I
mean DAC is probably the the safest way to go here?
Honestly, after after that timeout from EDNI kind of don't
want to risk the Dak shit. Because yeah.
Yeah. And there's just no one here.
We already talked about like Hill and ARSB are overpriced.
Copper will take Kittle with one of the picks anyways.
I don't really think we're there was something massive we're
passing up on unless. You win Zay Zay and then play
for Dak on the way back. And we could still get Zay here
potentially a lot of times. Copper's not going to want to
start with three bye week players.
Yeah. He'll go.
Mahomes, I would imagine.
Plus, plus. Oh, I think it's kiddo in
Mahomes. OK, yeah, that makes sense.
And. This is this shouldn't be zay
'cause you already have two AFC teams.
Yeah, I don't know if you guys want to do Zay, even though that
was the only one. That was.
Very well with Dallas. Yeah, I mean, Pollard's the
other guy, I think in the discussion, but I.
Would almost want to dare someone to take unstacked.
We prefer zay. Yeah, I don't want to be.
I mean, I I like Zay too. I was just thinking, I wasn't
going to say, I didn't mean to say I don't want to be, but I I
think in this small of a contest, you don't have to be as
massively correlated with Dallas, right?
No, but they do play round one, so and you know you expect them
to put up points. So they're they're kind of a
nice like double dip where you get the round one points plus a
nice Super Bowl team, yeah. The the EDN domino is gonna be
wild. And does EDN even know we're
drafting? He might have been sitting in
this room and it filled because he's still bleeding the clock.
So he's gonna OK, EDN is back. He's gonna try to claw his way
out of this. Oof, man, that's a rough start.
Well, Lamar Purdy's an extremely.
Rough start not let's start like you're fucked.
Like, how do you come out? How do you come back?
You don't claw your way out of it.
It's. Like you don't want to draft
more than two quarterbacks, basically, ever.
And now you have to. So that already sucks.
EDN was a dog bowl finalist. You know, he he had a chunk of
change, you know, burning a hole in his.
In his. Yeah, he he's back now, he said.
He said he in the discord. He's been at one of six in this
room for five hours easy and I. Snapped.
Filled. Like three of these earlier.
Steph. Two of six advance first round,
then one of four one of three six person final.
I mean, would you guys play this as like a a fairly heavy, could
you play it as a fairly heavy Baltimore and then have two NFC
stacks with like even potentially 2 quarterbacks on
the NFC side with it being a smaller field?
I wouldn't burn another spot with a quarterback, but I'm
definitely happy to keep grabbing Ravens.
I I think we. Grabbed.
All here, though, we definitely grabbed Paul.
Yeah, yeah. Paul's Paul Sology.
The tool thinks that James Cook would be a good pick here.
See you around. The tool doesn't know we're
drafting with the tool. You wouldn't want to be a second
quarterback in the even in this small of a field, I feel like
that's this is an opportunity to have an inch.
Well, I don't know. This is a pretty big Dallas
stack now. With two of sticks like if if
Dallas goes off, we're like really live to advance just
based on that, so. Right.
I guess I'm saying Dallas, even if they only go to like the
conference title, the 16 final doesn't necessarily mean there's
a a lock of a good team there. That's true.
And so Dallas could be a huge help to us advancing in the
first couple rounds and then potentially lose in round three.
Where are you guys at on like Gus versus Justice Hill or just
continuing to build out with Cooks?
Here. I think I'm cooks here.
I'm. I'm good with that.
I'm guessing EDN takes what? Yeah, I think I grouch.
Are you good with cooks? I would.
I would probably go with Gus, but I'm good with cooks.
I'm good with cooks if you guys want to.
Just because justice is available, too, so I.
And and there's a chance he comes back to us.
Right. I guess there's a chance Cook's
comes back too. It's it's kind of flipping I
think who is most likely because we're the Lamar team is
obviously the only one in contention really I think.
Yeah, but he's. Is he?
Well, I guess he is, but I was wondering if he was even really
a Lamar team, because he's just like, I would like my money back
now. Yeah, that's why I've been
fascinated. That's what Phil is wondering.
How's he going to play it? He does go, Gus, so he now he
just has his Chiefs round one. I I I mean I I I don't know that
I would be playing this to take down the tournament at this
point. It's very difficult to take down
the entire tournament with these, so you're hoping to get
through round one, make respectable showing.
So likely does go wow at EDNI. Don't.
I don't know how he's going to pull himself out of this.
He's on tilt. So we could do Ferguson, or
start building out a secondary A.
You could do a Chan. A Chan could be a start of a
second. I guess they're thin, though.
We're not going to get a bunch. I'm putting Ferguson in.
Ferguson's good to put in the queue.
Yeah, OK. The I think we're I I would
definitely like to get justice here coming back although is
there I mean is EDN is anyone else building out a secondary
Raven stack at. The Yeah, but EDN may just take
every Raven and hope that Pacheco and Rishi Rice combined
for 130 points. This is the team where, well,
Nico goes. I'm trying to think what other
you know, bucks. I think you are in play here.
You gotta get an AFC, yeah. It's it's probably the Dolphins.
I mean, at least you could get a piece.
You could get a. Or it's maybe the Browns.
Or the Browns, yeah. But is Amari gone?
I think Amari's gone and Joku just went.
I think it's probably justice here.
It's justice or a Chan. I don't know if you guys want to
build that. Out.
That's what I'm wrestling with. I really think we want justice
for this build. Do you think we need the advance
rate boost in two of six with with HN or not?
We can do that through a different team can't.
We through a different team, Yeah, we can, yeah.
And and we're not going to get another Dolphin, probably.
We need to get the Raven here, I think.
Yeah, I I. Agree the I guess the only thing
that sucks, but it's it's mitigated easy.
And I were talking about this when we did our stream.
By the way, if you're a YouTube member on my channel, you can
watch those three big mitten drafts easy.
And I did. The thing that kind of sucks is
like Ford and Singletary would be the other running backs, but
they would play Baltimore in round two if there's not an
upset. So that like, slightly takes the
shine off of it. But I don't think it's bad in
this kind of structure where it's so small.
Sorry, what? What?
What is it?
I'm saying if we're building out another AFC team, the way the
prices fall would be Cleveland or Houston, which isn't as
attractive going against our Baltimore bags in round two.
But because this is such a small tournament, I don't even know if
it's a huge deal. Right.
You also. I mean Montgomery's kind of
interesting with the hope that the Rams win or the Rams.
We we want the Rams to lose or win.
I can't. I'm confused.
How do the How do the we? We could.
We could definitely play Montgomery and then like a
Jameson Williams or Josh Reynolds type.
Thing They have to play each other.
The Cowboys and Lions have to play each other.
If they both OK, if. You go, Rashad White.
All right, I'm putting Rashad White in because we were burning
time here. I think we'd probably go.
If the If the Rams win, then the Lions just lose.
They play the Lions. You were like trying to figure
it out. It's like but if the.
Rams always play. The lions are.
The lines are gone. That's why they don't play
anymore. They just don't exist.
They don't exist. Yeah, the Cowboys and Lions play
each other if they both win, no matter what, two and three seed
curse, right? Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, it's so. Funny, so my thought would be
like. Mike Evans.
Godwin and oh holy shit I I thought we were down to to
Godwin. I didn't even realize Evans was
still here. No, I regretted saying White
quietly. I didn't.
I didn't admit to my regrets, but I was like, I should have
said Evans. But but now we get both, yeah.
Yeah, that's great. White and Evans is great.
Advanced Rate Monster so EDN. With this Lavar Jackson.
Oh, Pete, our last pick is is Mark Andrews, isn't it, 'cause
we already have all the advance rate shit and now we get the the
hammer with Baltimore and this. If we get the Baltimore, Dallas
Super Bowl, we get the hammer. Grudge Loving it.
Just fucking get getting the hammer out.
All right field. Yeah, I mean, just otherwise
this is the exact kind of build where you can afford it and
don't even have to be like, well, we might need Bateman's
points in you know, round two or whatever.
I like that call a lot. Me too.
This is the advance. Rate an updated.
They keep saying positive stuff and everyone I talked to is
like. There's no way.
But I'm like, but they keep saying he's going to play.
Yeah. I think with how with with the
Tampa Bay and all the Dallas and and the advance rate stuff, we
already have. I'm I'm very much on board with
it. Yeah, we want to build out the
Ravens. The Ravens are going on the
Super Bowl here, so. Yeah, you get the extra week
before the Super Bowl like that. It would be.
He'll play in the Super Bowl, dude.
Remember when Tyrell Owens played for the Eagles?
A few like 20 years ago, I guess.
Now. A few years ago?
Wait. A few years?
Oh, wait. So Gretch, this would have been
your the spot like to have your initial conversation right of
like a second quarterback, you're basically deciding
between do you want the extra Super Bowl piece with Andrews or
do you want Baker for like, maybe you get the.
Win. Maybe he outscores Dak one of
the two weeks. That was my thought was just, I
mean you're playing best ball a little bit more with it and
you're because it's a smaller field and you're saying 2
quarterbacks gives you a better shot at a high QB score just to
help you advance in the first couple rounds because of the way
that the advance rate was. And that's a good point.
Yeah, I mean that would have worked.
But when you guys were saying this is an advance rate monster,
I think that's right. And then I think that's when you
consider Andrews right. I mean that just.
Plus it's a it's a pretty sweet team where we may lose Rashad
White and Mike Evans, but then you have Justice Hill and Zay
Flowers coming in and you get this potential match up between
the Cowboys and the Lions where you know that that's going to be
pretty good for the Dallas offense.
So in round two, this is a pretty strong team and then the
conference championship is where Andrews would first be live to
return. Yeah, yeah.
Also the the, the subplots of this draft, can we just like
just wide this back? So we have EDN who's been
sitting in this room for like 5 hours.
Didn't know we're drafting auto drafts, his first two picks.
We have Alex, who hops in to have a good time drafting while
on stream, then says I didn't realize fucking Liam.
We said, I mean. Alex, come on, Alex.
Like you know, Liam's in the stream.
We said there's no way he doesn't Like, I was like, I
don't think we should take Alan because we're just going to get
sniped by Liam all day. And then you took out you were
like, fucking dude, I'm taking Alan too then.
It was like it was, which is just so funny.
We have an auto drafter. We have Liam playing the hits we
like. Things break right for our team,
like we had clean selections almost all the way through what
we want to do. And then Alex is just getting
like shipped left and right. Shrapnel and then Copper and
Easy are like trying to tiptoe around a minefield to build out
a logical team. I mean, it's pretty sweet.
What a draft. Alex, Alex said.
I heard you say it, but it was after I picked.
I mean, that is that you get that sinking feeling of oh fuck,
Oh no. Oh, man.
All right, dudes, this was fun. Tomorrow night, we're going to
have the stat chasing guys on. We're going to do kind of a
hodgepodge stream. We'll do some more underdog.
Obviously sacrilegious has been deep in the weeds on that stuff
with leg Up. We will do some more FFPC, get
their thoughts, updated ownership.
Maybe we'll get some news tomorrow that'll make that
conversation interesting. And then we're also going to
talk about the NFC contest as well.
We've been talking about it in our group chat.
I know some of you guys were wondering if we're going to play
it. We're going to get a few entries
in and we'll talk through some strategy for that.
So that'll be tomorrow, 8:15 PM Eastern with Draco and
Sacrilegious, and then we're booked for Friday, 8:15 again
with Dink and Leonie. You guys can get access to those
ownership projections and ship chasing and leg up discords.
Gretch, anything else from you other than needing to go rest up
and drink some tea? No, no.
I mean, people have been asking me about stealing bananas.
Sean and I are recording tomorrow.
We haven't recorded in a couple weeks.
With all my travel, I'm going to be right in a little bit in the
next couple weeks. But other than that, nothing.
Nothing that's out. Got home late last night.
Yeah. Going to get some sleep tonight.
Beautiful. Anything else for you, Pat?
I've been teasing this bracket tool.
I'm hoping to get that out tomorrow or Friday.
Working on it. We'll see.
The other thing I'll tease is that we are trying to, on the
fly reconfigure the underdog tool for DraftKings, so I'm
hoping to get that out as soon as possible as well.
Pete went black and white and then jumped off the stream.
I accidentally like fat fingered one of my other video recording
apps and it broke my my webcam. Yeah hop in the the discord you
got like the pop it up and get access to those ownership
projections. Yeah, love this week.
Thank you guys for all your your input.
I know Pat appreciates it too. Helping tweak, Oh yeah, those
ownership. I mean it's it's I'm trying to
project what everyone's gonna do.
So like it's it's like feedback is very much welcome.
The chat the chat this week is is crucial.
It's always fun to to hear the thought this week.
I mean, literally. Sentiment is the whole game.
Well, I do the same thing on my Sunday morning crams, right?
Where there's like 2 levels of ownership.
There's like the generic, like the field ownership.
And then there's like, what is our group of Galaxy brainers and
ship chasers that everyone going to be thinking.
And so the and like that ownership matters too.
And that's where you can like get steam.
And it's like our sub community could theoretically like flip
Allen over Lamar. Like that's.
I don't think that's going to happen.
It's in play. But it's in play.
Yeah, one thing that makes me feel like it's probably not
going to happen is then I was getting pushed back on Tucker.
And I think you probably have to have a big contingent of people
being willing to just straight up fade the Ravens for them to
flip. But cause 'cause you're not
flowers is not that. Fun to play.
You're going to plan Lamar just to avoid playing Flowers, But
yeah, it's a big, it's a big decision point this week.
All right, guys, we will see you back here tomorrow, 8:15 PM
Eastern. Have a great rest of your
evening. Good luck in those playoff
basketball streets.