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All right, night two of Ship 
Chasing's Playoff Week 

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extravaganza and tonight is a 
big night. 

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Pat of course, has been in the 
lab fine tuning his ownership 

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projections for the FFPC Playoff
contest. 

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Tonight we are going to reveal 
them. 

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If you guys are ship chasing 
Discord members, those are 

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actually just posted right now 
in the Discord, so if you want 

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to pull those up and follow 
along, you can. 

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Gretch is also back from his 
trip, so he will be able to fire

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off some fresh takes coming off 
of the Boomer Opto show last 

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night. 
It's ship chasing. 

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Let's do it. 
Pat Fryer, Helmo. 

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This is why This is why I'm hot.
Anita Handjob. 

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Fix your sight, Jamar Alpha Play
chase you. 

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Can't handle the heat? 
It looks like we're finally at 

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this point. 
You're right. 

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All right, Ben. 
Gretch back from his travels. 

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Ben, how we feeling? 
Everyone was bummed out for you,

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but it was still a a decent 
trip. 

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Yeah, I mean it was. 
There's still some fun moments, 

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Kind of a bummer to go down how 
we did, just knowing we didn't 

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really play our best game. 
I mean, everyone in the ship 

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chase community's been been 
riding along. 

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I know you guys, a lot of guys 
have watched the watched from 

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the the PAC 12 championship 
against Oregon and the Texas 

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game in the semi final. 
And if you watch those games 

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then you know you kind of got 
the got the got a different 

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team. 
It wasn't the same type of team 

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against Michigan. 
You got to give your hat off to 

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Michigan. 
They obviously obviously have 

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like a really good D They don't 
turn the ball over. 

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They don't commit a lot of 
penalties. 

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They they play smart football. 
But man, I mean, we felt like we

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had a poor game plan. 
Felt like our quarterback played

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his worst game of the year. 
It's a rough time to kind of 

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have some bad, bad shit. 
Like, usually our coaching 

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staff's a huge, a huge plus. 
We were running like giving up 

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downs, running on early downs 
with a hobbled running back 

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where you have like no chance 
for an explosive run. 

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You're helping for like 4 yards.
You're taking two. 

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I mean, like just so many. 
So many. 

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I mean, we kind of were 
conservative. 

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We played like, played a little,
not not our game. 

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So anyway it was it was 
disappointing for sure, to go 

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down in a game that felt like we
could frankly could have won. 

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So is what it is, though, you 
know. 

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Yeah, well I mean it's you got 
to chase those highs because 

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then when they do hit, 
inevitably they're that much 

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higher having experienced the 
the pain of the gut punch loss 

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for sure. 
Well, we are going to dig in 

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tonight to the FFPC playoff 
contest. 

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We kicked things off last night 
with Hassan and Blair going 

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through the boomer off go. 
One of the really interesting 

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things was as we got to the end 
of that, realizing how much, I 

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don't know variability there 
still is with some of these 

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ownership projections 
specifically to injury status 

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with the Eagles and there is a 
lot of kind of two V twos, 3V 

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threes down there that are going
to make things interesting. 

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Pat, are you feeling like the 
ownership projections right now 

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are in a pretty good place? 
Yeah, I mean, I think there's 

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still some questions. 
One thing I think I may need to 

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end up doing is shift some 
additional fade to the Texans. 

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It's probably something I'll end
up doing during the show. 

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I'm going to keep tinkering with
these as we go. 

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But the way I set up the 
spreadsheet is it just it's like

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fed by my my behind the scenes 
where the sausage gets made 

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spreadsheet. 
So it'll just auto update and if

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I make any changes on my end. 
But yeah, I think the A.J. 

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Brown stuff seems to be trending
in a positive direction. 

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We still don't have results from
the MRI, but I was reading today

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he was like walking around seems
fine. 

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So if that's the case, then I 
think people are going to feel 

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more comfortable though there's 
a potential two V2 of like Jake 

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Elliott, Nico Collins versus 
like Kaimi Fairbairn and A.J. 

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Brown. 
And the healthier Brown looks 

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like more people shift over to 
that side. 

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So that that'll probably be the 
biggest change from the rankings

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as you're looking at them now, 
assuming things trend in that 

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direction. 
Yep, Gretch, I know you weren't 

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able to check out the show last 
night, but are you starting to 

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dig into this wild card and 
playoff slate at all? 

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Yeah, a little bit. 
I was telling you guys earlier 

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today, the injury stuff is I I 
mean I didn't track it. 

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I didn't track week 18 super 
close. 

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Seemed like there was a lot of 
injury stuff that's going to 

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impact the play offs now. 
So I mean that's kind of a 

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bummer. 
It's also, you know, a lot of 

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potential opportunity there. 
And then, yeah, I mean that when

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when I, when I saw the actual 
Boomer Opto, Nico Collins was 

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the name that stuck out to me. 
But I think I mean it. 

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Just hearing you talk through 
Pat, I think it does make sense.

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I mean, Stroud has LED an 
offense all year that has had a 

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lot of skill, position, 
production. 

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I think people are going to feel
good about that. 

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It seems odd that the Eagles 
wouldn't have anyone in, but 

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like A.J. 
Brown banged up DeAndre Swift's 

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not a guy that you're going to, 
you know, love to go to. 

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And I mean it really is. 
It's a Jalen Hurts type play if 

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you can, but no one's going to 
be picking them to to win the 

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Super Bowl. 
It's that's a tough one. 

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The Eagles is a tough one. 
And I I could see them being 

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kind of, I was just thinking 
like as Pat was saying that, I 

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was thinking to us like that's 
kind of wild, but they might be 

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pretty highly faded. 
Yeah. 

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I I mean they're going to be 
more highly faded than you would

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think based on their odds of 
making the Super Bowl. 

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If A.J. 
Brown doesn't look right like 

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and the concern is right that he
it's a Monday night game. 

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So how much are we even going to
know? 

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Right. 
And how much are people going to

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want to even take the risk, even
if he's expected to play? 

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Like he doesn't get reinjured, 
you know, I mean. 

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Right. 
So I have them right now at 25% 

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total fade, which is the highest
of. 

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Well, no. 
I've got them higher than the 

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Dolphins and higher than than 
the Rams, who both have lower 

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odds of, you know, going to the 
Super Bowl. 

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Yeah, yeah. 
And I, I do think again, when we

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talk about the Boomer Opto and 
stuff, we're talking about 

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generally, you know, someone 
who's submitting 1 lineup who's 

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kind of wanting to play things 
conservative. 

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These are the decisions they're,
you know, tending toward. 

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Like if you're putting in three 
lineups, you might say, all 

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right, I'll do 1 Eagles fade, 
I'll do one with Gotter and I'll

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do one with Ajb. 
Like, you know, you might get to

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those spots when you build 
multiple. 

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But I think in general the 
uncertainty of that Monday night

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game and just the fact that, 
like, obviously we'll get more 

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news between now and Lock. 
But I mean, it's pretty quiet on

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the A.J. 
Brown news front right now, 

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almost in an ominous way. 
Yeah, right. 

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I mean, it's it's weird. 
It's weird that he got an MRI 

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today and there's no news. 
Like how are they not tell us 

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what the MRI said? 
Someone knows. 

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So I don't know. 
I find that very pretty 

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frustrating. 
Tomorrow will be the big day, 

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right? 
Because generally Wednesday is 

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the first practice report day 
where we get like some good 

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information. 
But that's for Sunday game. 

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So I'm guessing all their stuff 
is moved back one day. 

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So you would think tomorrow 
would be like in a key practice 

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report day for the Eagles. 
Yeah, yeah. 

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And Friday we'll we'll obviously
we'll get something. 

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So that'll that'll, that's still
the big domino for this. 

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I think it affects Dallas 
Goddard. 

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I moved Goddard down fairly 
significantly since yesterday 

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because I I'm kind of 
positioning like either AJ 

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Brown's basically going to get 
played as we expect and then I 

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don't think people are really 
going to Goddard that much or 

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you don't you feel like really 
shaky about Brown and then all 

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of a sudden Goddard becomes 
pretty interesting. 

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So I've I've kind of currently 
sitting close to where I feel 

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like A.J. 
Brown is, you know, more or less

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going to get played as normal, 
but if that changes then I need 

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to shift a lot. 
Do you want to just filter to 

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Eagles and we just start there 
just because we're. 

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Yeah. 
Yeah, let's start. 

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Let's start, Eagles. 
I was going to say your first 

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thought. 
Sharing my screen or are you? 

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Oh, sorry, I'm sharing your 
thing. 

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So you just need to filter on 
your sheet. 

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OK, right. 
Does that work? 

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That works, yeah. 
Let's do it. 

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OK, well. 
You got to say that the 25% felt

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almost light, but obviously the 
match up with Tampa. 

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I think a lot of people are 
going to play them to win 

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obviously. 
I mean Tampa's another one that 

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that you were saying you know 
playing it either way with or no

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you maybe you weren't saying 
that for for Tampa as the trade 

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off, but we were talking about 
Evans a little bit earlier right

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in the chat. 
I mean, this is a game where, I 

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mean, there's going to be some 
people that don't want to play 

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either side of this, right? 
We want people to do that. 

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We we just have to do that. 
I think yeah, I think. 

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I think the game that jumps out 
to me there is the Browns where 

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you go Browns D Kaimi Fairbairn.
You're like Browns D so good. 

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I I don't even care if I get two
games from but you do. 

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You should care. 
Yeah, but but I I can see that 

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more than than the Eagles won. 
Although again, if AJ Brown's 

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not healthy, then that shifts, 
shifts things a lot. 

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Oh, I'm excited to look at that,
'cause I feel like a joke. 

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Who's gonna catch? 
I mean, people forget it's that 

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in Premium. 
The IT it is so weird. 

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I I kind of agree with Gretsch. 
Just again, looking at like 

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where guys go in underdog drafts
and even like not that this is 

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the ultimate like sentiment 
indicator but I was pulling up 

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Battle Royale ADP and like 
Baker's like QB 12 this week. 

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Like people. 
I I just assumed people would 

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want to target this Eagle 
secondary. 

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But I don't know if there's just
like lingering hangover over 

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respect for this old Eagles 
defense, even though they've 

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been a shitty secondary all 
year. 

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But in my mind, it'd be like 
you'd be crazy not to play at 

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least one side of this via an 
offensive piece. 

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And yet maybe people are just 
like, I don't like this game. 

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I'll I'll stay away in some 
spots. 

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Well, especially if Brown is 
dubious tomorrow at practice, 

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right? 
Yeah. 

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Yeah, for sure. 
I think, yeah, but what do you 

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guys think? 
I mean, let's say, let's say 

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Brown limited practice to 
tomorrow, full practice Friday. 

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You know, no real concern that 
he's going to be on like a snap 

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counter or something. 
Where? 

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Where do you think he comes? 
I think this seems solid. 

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Yeah. 
I I wouldn't be surprised to see

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him come down a bit more maybe 
like to the 40% range in the the

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Elliott and maybe even like. 
You're saying if he gets in a 

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full practice even? 
Yeah, I think people are going 

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to be afraid of the injury and 
pivot to Davonta some. 

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I think I would have Davonta a 
little higher than this. 

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I mean, I look at this and I say
Adrian Brown's hobbled. 

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We do think the Eagles are are 
likely to at least win one game.

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You do probably want a skilled 
position player from the winner 

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in this game. 
They are favored by three on the

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road. 
That's a pretty significant 

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number on a road. 
You know on a road situation 

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that you probably want a skilled
guy in this game and AJ Brown's 

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not healthy. 
Now A.J. 

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Brown in the second game could 
be healthier and that's when you

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could get your big A.J. 
Brown number. 

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00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,880
But I do look at this and I'm 
like, I mean it could be Devonta

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Smith over two games like that. 
Last year they were like that 

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even. 
Obviously AJ Brown's been more 

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dominant this year, But if A.J. 
Brown is banged up. 

225
00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:57,640
If you're spotting that almost 
in a vacuum, you, you, you, you 

226
00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:02,120
might project Devonta or Goddard
close enough. 

227
00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:06,800
And it's not like this is CD 
Lamb who had we have on the 

228
00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,560
injury port and we're uncertain 
about in his form, has just been

229
00:12:09,560 --> 00:12:11,040
awesome. 
Like, I mean A.J. 

230
00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:12,600
Brown. 
His production has been 

231
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,560
incredibly muted since, like, 
literally the end of. 

232
00:12:15,560 --> 00:12:20,800
October, He's on a bad run. 
Since the 125 streak, 125 plus 

233
00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,520
yards in every game. 
He's only gone over 100 yards 

234
00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:27,000
once since that ended, and in 
that since the beginning of 

235
00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,280
November. 
So Week 9. 

236
00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:32,920
I bumped them down 5% and and 
gave it to Devonta. 

237
00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:39,840
Yeah, I think, I think that's, I
think that's right and obviously

238
00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:43,920
the this is probably would you 
say Pat, this team in this news 

239
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:47,080
report on A.J. 
Brown is probably the most 

240
00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,920
volatile projection across the 
contest right now. 

241
00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:52,200
I think so, because no one 
really cares about Waddle. 

242
00:12:53,560 --> 00:12:56,480
No one's playing waddle no one. 
Cares about Gabe. 

243
00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:01,000
No one cares about Gabe. 
No one really cares about. 

244
00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:04,280
Well, I'd say Mostert's probably
the second biggest cause 'cause 

245
00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:07,800
I think you'll see some shift to
most are actually. 

246
00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:09,440
I have Mostert ahead of HN right
now. 

247
00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:13,160
Just thinking like you know 
boomers love their touchdowns 

248
00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:15,440
and he's he's leading the league
in them so. 

249
00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:20,440
Yeah, this is this is a good 
point from Jonathan about 

250
00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:24,080
sliding the AJB stuff directly 
to Devonta. 

251
00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:28,760
I'm not sure people are feeling 
great about his health either. 

252
00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:31,400
Right now, yeah, that's where 
I'm not. 

253
00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:32,960
I'm not caught up on the health 
stuff, he says. 

254
00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:36,160
He Devonta was less likely to 
play than AJB is what he's he's 

255
00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,440
seen on the next comment there. 
I haven't seen again an updated 

256
00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,080
thing. 
He was dealing with that ankle 

257
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,720
injury, so that's another one 
where the injury. 

258
00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:44,160
Report. 
Yeah. 

259
00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:48,640
He didn't practice last week, so
yeah, maybe, maybe that's a 

260
00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:52,680
mistake to slide it there. 
So I I guess it goes to Goddard,

261
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:56,640
although it's honestly a reason 
we could see fade them, fade the

262
00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:58,120
game. 
Yeah, the fade or the. 

263
00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:00,880
I think the kicker. 
Could or play Tampa to win. 

264
00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:04,120
I mean, I mean, yeah, I mean you
can play Evans and the and the 

265
00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:08,400
kicker or what have you. 
Yep. 

266
00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:11,160
Yeah. 
So we probably shouldn't belabor

267
00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:15,480
this one too much just because 
it's going to get shaken up a 

268
00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:17,920
decent bit. 
But I do think there's lots of 

269
00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:21,120
ways this can go because like if
A.J. 

270
00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:23,600
Brown, they're like, holy cow, 
he doesn't practice and then 

271
00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:25,400
Devonta Smith's a full 
participant. 

272
00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,280
Like that's going to go 
different than like both Ajb and

273
00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:29,960
Devonta Smith. 
Don't practice, you know, like 

274
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,440
all these different 
configurations will shift things

275
00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:38,520
around. 
If they if they were to both 

276
00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:42,480
miss, I think you like you. 
You don't feel good about Philly

277
00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:46,040
winning the game, right? 
I mean that's it's not that 

278
00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,120
wouldn't be ideal for them. 
Yep. 

279
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,680
They already won pretty 
convincingly in Tampa earlier 

280
00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:55,760
this year and and I believe 
that's a that's when DeAndre 

281
00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,200
Swift was like really hot early 
in the year and he had a big 

282
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,040
rushing game. 
Yeah, I think you already 

283
00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,560
rushing yards. 
These teams are in like 

284
00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:07,200
completely opposite form than 
where they were in. 

285
00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:08,920
Right. 
That was week three, Yeah. 

286
00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:15,600
Yeah, yeah, I I think the the, 
the one name that we're not 

287
00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,440
talking about a ton here. 
That is interesting just because

288
00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:20,960
the lack of viable tight end 
options is Goddard. 

289
00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:24,200
Like if you get the double 
whammy of Brown and Devante not 

290
00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:26,880
being there, I could see people 
saying like, dude, this buck 

291
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:30,520
secondary has got lit up all 
year. 

292
00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:32,680
People forget it's tight in 
premium. 

293
00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,120
I'll just burn my my spot and 
just bank 10 targets for Dallas 

294
00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,760
Goddard here. 
Leonie's going to talk us into 

295
00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:45,920
Julio Jones, you guys realize. 
I've been I, so I I moved. 

296
00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:52,120
I I kept A.J. 
Brown at 45 and I just took the 

297
00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:55,480
Devante percentage and I gave it
to Goddard and Jake Elliott. 

298
00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:01,280
So yeah, I think that's 
probably, but I think some of 

299
00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:06,240
this gotter could come back to 
Brown, so some of this Elliott 

300
00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:10,600
could come back to Brown too. 
Yeah, which? 

301
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:13,160
Which way do you want to go pad?
Do you want to go match up by 

302
00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:14,920
match up? 
Do you want to go to bucks here 

303
00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:15,320
or? 
What? 

304
00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,680
Yeah, let's go, Bucks. 
Yeah, that's probably the the 

305
00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:22,200
most fun way to do it. 
Yeah, I feel like the Bucks are 

306
00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:26,960
a fun one to talk through 
because I think you can make, 

307
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:31,040
you know, legitimate cases for 
three to four different ways to 

308
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:35,360
play the Bucks. 
I I'm struggling with just 

309
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,480
personally, like, thinking about
hard fading the Bucks just 

310
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,080
because they're in a great spot.
And there's a lot of ways I 

311
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:45,200
think this can be a fun game. 
But you have it right now. 

312
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:47,800
Evans at 26. 
Rashad White at 21. 

313
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:50,200
I'll do a better job for the 
audio listeners here. 

314
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:56,880
Defense at 19 in Tampa Bay. 
Fade at 16, What was the? 

315
00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,480
Was there anything tough for you
here? 

316
00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,840
Yeah, I don't. 
I think maybe I've got the 

317
00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:08,200
defense in McLaughlin kind of I 
might need to go find some 

318
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:12,520
additional. 
I I there's so many kickers to 

319
00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:16,760
project and so I I keep having 
to steal kicker percentages from

320
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:22,760
everybody and so but the field 
will feel that way as well so 

321
00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:24,440
that that's why it feels a 
little weird. 

322
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,240
Like I think people will feel 
better about playing McLaughlin 

323
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:32,680
than the Tampa Bay D but it's 
it's hard to to choose your 

324
00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:35,840
kicker there's lots of 
interesting kicker options and 

325
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:40,200
then Evans and White getting 
this one dialed in is tricky for

326
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:44,800
sure because I there's something
about just like feeling comfy 

327
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,560
that you've you've got the 
running back it's it's a weak 

328
00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:51,080
running back crop. 
This lets you get off Kyron 

329
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:56,720
which I think people probably of
all like the chalky guys Kyron's

330
00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:00,600
going to be the most comfortable
fate where you're like oh I can 

331
00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:02,880
play Puka you know or I can play
pop. 

332
00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:07,880
And so White lets you do that 
and and it's like one of those 

333
00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:15,920
spots where like an Evans, Kyron
versus Puka White 2V2 actually 

334
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:20,040
feels kind of fun to go with 
like the non chalky 1. 

335
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:23,840
So I think this will be a pretty
common, it'll be so common that 

336
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,040
it's also just going to be like 
secondary chalk I think. 

337
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:34,080
I think that's right. 
This feels to me right, right. 

338
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,440
Like I I think you're right to 
have a pretty high, like total 

339
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,440
fate of about 50% here and you 
had 25% on the Eagles. 

340
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:42,480
We just talked through that as 
well. 

341
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,000
And it's going to be a game 
where people might even make the

342
00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:46,840
mistake of fading both sides of 
it. 

343
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,240
It feels to me like a good 
opportunity to be playing both 

344
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,640
sides of it. 
Because, you know, we some of 

345
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,280
the other games we get to are 
going to be the ones where 

346
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,400
people are going to want to play
both sides of it, but they're 

347
00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:58,880
not necessarily great 
situations. 

348
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,280
I know we've talked a little bit
about like Miami and KC for 

349
00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,440
example, extremely cold game and
everybody's going to want to 

350
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:09,200
play both sides of that and and 
someone's going to lose, right? 

351
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,760
And that's a big part of this 
contest is understanding that 

352
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:16,080
somebody is going to lose. 
This is a spot where you kind of

353
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,840
just get a free roll and you can
tell yourself that Mike Evans 

354
00:19:20,360 --> 00:19:23,840
and whether it's you know A.J. 
Brown or whoever the Eagles is, 

355
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,080
you know play is they're in a 
good match up in this game. 

356
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,640
Both of these secondary's are 
beatable, right. 

357
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:34,040
They can get there in one game 
plus you don't have to pick the 

358
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,320
game. 
It's not going to be necessarily

359
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:37,600
low scoring. 
It isn't Tampa. 

360
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,080
It looks like there's going to 
be some potential for 

361
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,880
thunderstorms and some rain, but
it's not like it's going to be 

362
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,320
like freezing cold or anything. 
Would expect some offensive 

363
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,520
production in this matchup, 
wouldn't you guys? 

364
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:52,000
I mean I think this is a an 
interesting one to to lean into 

365
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,000
the the actual plays that are 
there. 

366
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:59,840
Yeah, and I we we had One of the
like, epiphanies I'm having 

367
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,080
about this game is how the field
will play it. 

368
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,600
I think this is going to end up 
being the kicker game because 

369
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,800
you think about, like how people
want. 

370
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:11,680
They're getting worried about 
those outdoor games. 

371
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,520
You play your, your Browns 
defense or you play your, you 

372
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,400
know, Chiefs defense, whatever 
it may be, in those cold weather

373
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,440
games and then in the Dome 
games, right, You're playing the

374
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,560
Rams and the Lions from both 
sides. 

375
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,120
Offensively, you're playing CD 
Lamb and then you're most likely

376
00:20:25,120 --> 00:20:27,640
Fading Packers. 
And so then you're looking 

377
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,600
around for what feels like the 
comfy click and you're like, I 

378
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,160
kind of don't know what to do 
with this game. 

379
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:35,080
It's a warm weather game. 
Chase McLaughlin, Jake Elliott, 

380
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:37,800
I think start to look pretty 
good. 

381
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,400
I I think we're gonna see a ton 
of kicker ownership, and I mean,

382
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,000
that's reflected by the Boomer 
opto there. 

383
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,440
But that's just a thought I'm 
having. 

384
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,800
I think this feels like a kicker
spot for people. 

385
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,480
Yeah, I like that. 
It's either full fade or it's 

386
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,640
play the position player. 
MM Evans feels like last year's 

387
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,880
TK Metcalf play. 
We talked a lot about that it 

388
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,160
was the Seattle team that nobody
wanted to pick to win. 

389
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,040
But Metcalf did end up having a 
huge game. 

390
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,760
We we were overweight on him. 
Do you guys remember that? 

391
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:07,120
It's so funny he's Tampa has 
been the seat maybe they'll beat

392
00:21:07,120 --> 00:21:10,080
Seattle this year they got Dave 
Canales maybe they he'll turn 

393
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,120
Baker around the way that they 
turned Gino around. 

394
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,480
Now we're all the way into the 
playoff contest, that I still 

395
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,520
want to make the comparison, but
I mean they they are the 

396
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,120
division winner. 
That's the four seed that people

397
00:21:20,120 --> 00:21:22,960
want to pick to get beat in the 
first round at home. 

398
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,720
But there's a pretty good 
argument for just, you know, 

399
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,720
leaning into their star 
receiver. 

400
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,120
If they lose, they're going to 
need to throw. 

401
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:35,320
If they win, Evans is, you know,
a great play for a two week spot

402
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,080
anyway. 
Right. 

403
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,440
I think he's a good, good play 
at, you know, even at that 

404
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,080
number. 
And the reason too, I I agree 

405
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,640
with like the Chase McLaughlin 
for the Boomer Opto too is just 

406
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:49,000
like you see the way the market 
has treated Evans and Rashad 

407
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:50,720
White all year. 
And it's like people like, yeah,

408
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,600
it's concentrated, but there's 
always this like lingering fear 

409
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,560
of like what if the floor, you 
know, bottoms out or you know, 

410
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,720
falls out from underneath them. 
And then this is the Baker belt 

411
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:01,400
down game. 
It's like no one has wanted to 

412
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,400
fully buy into Evans and Rashad 
White. 

413
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,800
I I just am trying to like gauge
sentiment and I do really think 

414
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,720
this will be a big kicker spot 
here. 

415
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:18,880
Yep, I just added some kicker so
which added a little bit more 

416
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:25,480
fade to the game or no I didn't.
I took it from from their fade. 

417
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,160
So I bumped down Tampa Bay's 
fade and and moved it to the 

418
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:33,880
kicker and I took away from 
Michael Badgley on of the Lions.

419
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,720
Cause to your point, I think 
people that I thought that might

420
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,360
be a kicker game to some extent,
but I think people just play it 

421
00:22:40,360 --> 00:22:44,320
from both sides because because 
Gibbs is attractive enough there

422
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,000
that yeah, people, people 
probably feel more comfortable 

423
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,000
about playing it through Tampa 
Bay's kicker as opposed to 

424
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,200
Detroit's. 
And you you think about how that

425
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,880
pole gets like, what are the 
games where the kicker can 

426
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:58,720
actually pull ownership? 
It's when there's not an 

427
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,280
overwhelmingly attractive skill 
position. 

428
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:05,160
You know, Ahman Raw is going to 
just be a black hole, you know, 

429
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:09,400
sucking in so much that you're 
not necessarily feeling like I 

430
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,360
shrug my shoulders and I play 
the kicker, 'cause I can't 

431
00:23:11,360 --> 00:23:15,360
decide on a skill position guy. 
Yeah, and I think another times 

432
00:23:15,360 --> 00:23:19,480
that kicker will will get 
someone if you just kind of want

433
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,640
to bet them to lose, which you 
will get some of with Detroit. 

434
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,280
But I think this if you don't 
feel like you have a good pivot 

435
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,160
at all and you're like, God, I 
don't want to eat this massive 

436
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:33,720
chalk, then it makes sense to go
ahead and play the kicker to 

437
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,720
some extent. 
But that's not really the case 

438
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,600
in Detroit. 
You feel good actually about 

439
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,160
pivoting to to Gibbs. 
He's one of the most fun pivots 

440
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:45,720
in the entire tournament. 
So you know I yeah, you probably

441
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,720
I may need to actually make that
that move again and and take 

442
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:52,760
down their Lions. 
The Lions fade a little bit 

443
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,280
more. 
Do you guys want to hop over to 

444
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:56,760
Lions here? 
Yeah, let's do it all. 

445
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,200
Right. 
I was telling you guys earlier, 

446
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,720
Laporta was gonna be one of my 
favorite plays in this. 

447
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,600
It's a bummer we lose him. 
It does make this. 

448
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:09,840
You guys were just talking about
Almond Raw. 

449
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,040
Really taking a lot of the 
projection. 

450
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,720
It does make this less fun also,
right? 

451
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:15,840
Like. 
For sure. 

452
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,920
Gibbs gets bit by Montgomery a 
little bit, and you can see why 

453
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,400
people would just say, I'm just 
gonna take ARSP, right? 

454
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:24,720
Like he's gonna get all the 
targets. 

455
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,640
If they lose, he's gonna catch a
bunch of balls. 

456
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,520
If they win, he's gonna catch a 
bunch of balls. 

457
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:33,560
He's a slot guy. 
Why not just take the dude 

458
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,760
that's obviously going to catch 
a bunch of balls, and I don't 

459
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:38,280
know if I can really argue with 
it. 

460
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,880
Like are there a lot of 
scenarios where Gibbs crushes 

461
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,040
Almanro in a loss or crushes 
Almanro over multiple games? 

462
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:48,240
No. 
You're kind of playing it as a 

463
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,520
loss, but it's weird because you
probably want to. 

464
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,160
You prefer the Rams to lose if 
you don't take Kyron? 

465
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,640
Probably. 
You know, not that Puka can't 

466
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,400
outscore Kyron over two games, 
but like you also have to worry 

467
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,760
about cup there. 
And so if you're going to Puka, 

468
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,400
it's kind of almost easier to go
Puka Amanra and hope the Lions 

469
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:14,440
win and you don't really want to
go Kyron Gibbs 'cause that kind 

470
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:18,200
of takes away some of the fun of
of going Gibbs is that you gets 

471
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:23,360
you off of Kyron, so. 
I wonder, do you think then that

472
00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:28,000
would be like if you're playing 
Gibbs, is it? 

473
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,080
Do you do you like full fade or 
soft fade The Rams? 

474
00:25:32,120 --> 00:25:36,560
I think it's in play for sure. 
It's just they're a tough team 

475
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:40,880
to soft fade. 
I have them at 9% fade which is 

476
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,240
lower than the rapists. 
That's what I've got. 

477
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,800
I just have the field playing a 
ramp cause you've got Cause Cup.

478
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,920
I mean Cup is a sweet play like 
you know as a as far as like you

479
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,360
know like Galaxy brain plays go 
like it's Cooper cup. 

480
00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:00,560
Yeah, yeah. 
Any anything else here on the 

481
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,240
Lions? 
I just don't see people getting 

482
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:07,280
to Montgomery. 
I just don't. 

483
00:26:07,360 --> 00:26:10,880
I don't really see anything else
other than these these top three

484
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,800
you really have here. 
No, I mean I guess I'd be I'd be

485
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,640
curious to to hear what you 
think about. 

486
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:23,920
Let me let me unzoom if we can. 
You scroll over and take a look 

487
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:25,840
at the the fades here for team 
level. 

488
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,480
So I've got Detroit at 18% and 
just kind of how that compares 

489
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,720
to some of the other teams, 
'cause that would be the one 

490
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,960
thing of maybe I have Badgeley 
still a little too high if 

491
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,120
people just want to play it 
through Aman, RA or Git. 

492
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:47,040
But I do think the Lions have 
looked shaky and they've lost 

493
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,920
Laporta so and the Rams look 
pretty live. 

494
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,520
So I think some people will be 
willing to to just play the 

495
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:59,240
kicker and, you know, fade them.
Yeah, I feel like Goblin Raw 

496
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,800
might come in higher than 58 or 
whatever you had him at. 

497
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,120
It wouldn't surprise you if he 
was 65 and Batchley was lower to

498
00:27:06,120 --> 00:27:09,200
your question. 
And and honestly, I would even 

499
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:15,280
maybe even take it from Gibbs. 
Yeah, I think, I think the 

500
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,480
split. 
I don't think people are gonna 

501
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,840
be as excited to pull the. 
I'm not even that excited to 

502
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,360
pull the the the Gibbs trigger. 
I I I know some of you guys like

503
00:27:23,360 --> 00:27:24,800
it a little bit. 
But I I don't think people are 

504
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,200
gonna be as excited as as you 
just kind of made it seem like 

505
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,720
it it is tricky like you you do 
have Montgomery. 

506
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:34,240
It's not just a, you know a a 
clear workload there. 

507
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:38,320
Right. 
And the Almanac is the slot guy 

508
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:42,080
that just racks up targets. 
So you get this floor up from a 

509
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:43,720
receiver. 
That's different, you know? 

510
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,160
And even this narrative, you 
know, Shelly says, Don't you 

511
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,800
want Gibbs in losing Scripps? 
I mean, he hasn't been catching 

512
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,040
a ton of balls of late either. 
I mean, they were in a close 

513
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,760
game against Dallas a couple 
weeks ago. 

514
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:58,920
He had three targets caught one 
ball. 

515
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,120
I mean, he had that stretch in 
the middle of the part of the 

516
00:28:01,120 --> 00:28:06,000
season, you know, 10 targets, 
5568, and now it's been 242, the

517
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,520
one seven game against 
Minnesota, 31. 

518
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:10,840
So it's like you can't even hang
your hat on. 

519
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,960
He's going to catch 4 to 5 balls
here and that gives me a floor. 

520
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,720
Right. 
So, so I just took the, I just 

521
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,880
took badly down, Does this look 
a little better 15% fading 

522
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:22,920
Detroit? 
I mean it's a little, it's lower

523
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,640
than you would think just given 
how. 

524
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:26,240
Oops. 
Oh, I think. 

525
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:30,520
You're on Baltimore here. 
Yeah, let me let me filter down.

526
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:38,760
I think that looks a little 
better to me. 

527
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,120
I I'm with Gretch. 
I think. 

528
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,400
I think Ahman Raj just separates
in such a massive way. 

529
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,440
You see that in the underdog 
drafts right now too. 

530
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,960
I mean, Ahman Raj's going like 
early second round and it's a 

531
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,720
while after until Gibbs goes. 
Yeah, that's. 

532
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:53,920
I didn't know he was going that 
high. 

533
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:55,560
That's high for. 
I mean, there's not a lot of 

534
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,640
faith in Detroit to actually 
make a huge run. 

535
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:01,120
I mean, know what? 
To your point, it's a while 

536
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,560
later till till Gibbs, the next 
best player on their team goes, 

537
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,120
because no one's not. 
It's not like people are 

538
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,240
stacking up the line starting in
the early second round. 

539
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,400
It's just that almond Raw's 
getting that kind of deference. 

540
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,080
Yeah, I mean I maybe I over say,
I mean Amman Raw's ADP is 10, 

541
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,800
Gibbs goes 21 and then a huge 
gap to Montgomery at 36. 

542
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,960
So I I think having that Gibbs 
around 18 is pretty like 

543
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:26,880
proportional to that ADP delta 
but Amman Raw is just and he 

544
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,040
like even by your like leg up 
right kicks back like you won't 

545
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,960
ever get him on raw like based 
if if you're using the leg up 

546
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:33,840
stuff you. 
Got to have. 

547
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:41,120
Him as mega overvalued. 
You can be more extreme on wide 

548
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,320
receivers in the starting 
lineups over here than you can 

549
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:44,840
at Underdog. 
You got to have some running 

550
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,760
back depth at Underdog, right? 
And it's half PR. 

551
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:51,400
So there's that gap there. 
But I would, I mean, I it would 

552
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,800
make sense over here I think to 
have an even bigger gap. 

553
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,160
Yeah, I think this. 
I think this looks right. 

554
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,880
Because you could play 6 
receivers and two running backs 

555
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,480
in in an FPC lineup. 
And and I do think, you know, 

556
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:07,840
we've had in previous years, 
right, where you had the two 

557
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:11,400
dominant duos on a team. 
You know, I'm thinking of the, 

558
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,400
you know, the old Michael 
Thomas, Alvin Kamara, the Aaron 

559
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:19,400
Jones Devante Adams stuff. 
But it that was where the back 

560
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,840
was the clear lead back on the 
team. 

561
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,000
And I think the fact of 
Montgomery's presence and just 

562
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:28,200
knowing you don't have squatters
rights on all the touchdowns and

563
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:32,120
stuff continues to make Gibbs 
even less attractive as like, 

564
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:33,960
the clean pivot. 
Oh, everyone's playing them on 

565
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:35,080
raw. 
I'll just go to Gibbs. 

566
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,920
It's like, well, fuck, what if 
Montgomery has the two TDs? 

567
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:39,840
You know what I'm like. 
What am I doing here? 

568
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:44,480
Right, right. 
And someone said, like Gibbs has

569
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,640
outscored in a few wins, but 
then they have a second game, 

570
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,920
they're unless they go all the 
way to the Super Bowl, right? 

571
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:51,640
Like, so then they lose in the 
next game. 

572
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,280
Does he maintain that lead? 
I mean, that's one of those 

573
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,560
things that we see in this 
contest is like you can be right

574
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:01,920
in the first game, but then the 
contest continues, right? 

575
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,720
Like it. 
It's total points over their run

576
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,680
and every team but one is going 
to lose at some point. 

577
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,520
So for some of the running 
backs, they get a little bit 

578
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,520
trappy and Gibbs doesn't make 
sense as a trap back, which is 

579
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,120
like, you know, they don't catch
enough passes. 

580
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,240
But he's kind of been that, sort
of been what we talked about. 

581
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,960
Not not a full trap back, but he
trended dangerously close to 

582
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,040
that. 
That type of usage in some games

583
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:28,800
where it's like, OK, well, when 
they lose, it feels like he can 

584
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,200
just be a little bit 
out-of-the-box score. 

585
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:34,200
Almanro feels just so much more 
comfortable he's going to get 

586
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,120
his targets. 
If if they go down, losing 

587
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,080
Almanro's going to catch 8 balls
underneath in the second-half, 

588
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:40,960
right? 
Like it's just going to happen. 

589
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:45,560
Guys, I would say tonight's show
is all about putting ourselves 

590
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,760
in the mind of the field. 
It's an extension of the boomer 

591
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:52,480
opto exercise and none of these 
leverage picks are quite 

592
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,960
financial advice yet. 
We're trying to say what when 

593
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,560
the majority of people are let 
their lineups, what are the 

594
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:58,960
things they're thinking through 
here? 

595
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,080
Well, I did see a lot of people 
eyeing Montgomery at 1%, so I 

596
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,120
took it from Goff and and got 
him to two. 

597
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:10,200
You got you got eyeball chat 
steam there odd David. 

598
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:11,120
I did. 
I'll. 

599
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,480
I'll be honest, like I I think 
you. 

600
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:20,360
It's easy to look for for the 
for good pivots on every roster,

601
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,240
on every team. 
I think every team's a little 

602
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,240
unique, and I will. 
I'm gonna be advocating for for 

603
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,640
playing a decent amount of 
almond raw in our lineups. 

604
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:31,040
Like even at a high ownership 
percentage you have a 12 man 

605
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,640
roster. 
You do have other spots that you

606
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,560
can pull levers. 
I think he's a the right play 

607
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,200
for Detroit. 
It like I I think he should be 

608
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,080
65%. 
I don't know that I want to be 

609
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:47,680
even with 65%, but I think I'd 
be fine with like 55 or 60, so 

610
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,240
like a slight. 
I think that's right. 

611
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:53,760
A slight slight fade from the 
field's enthusiasm, but you're 

612
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,960
still you're trying to match 
them within reason, as. 

613
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,200
Much as within reason, yeah, 
yeah. 

614
00:32:59,960 --> 00:33:03,360
But you're right. 
I think it's probably this is. 

615
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,560
This feels like a better number 
than the one I started with. 

616
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,640
Yeah, let's see. 
Let's go to. 

617
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,120
Let's head over to Ram in the 
same game. 

618
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:21,720
This is an interesting one. 
So that that Cooper Cup number 

619
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:26,480
is really appealing. 
But I. 

620
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:30,840
Think I feel pretty good about 
the Cooper Cup number where I'm 

621
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,440
not hearing anyone really talk 
about cup. 

622
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:38,600
I think people may naturally go 
oh, I don't want to play Kyra in

623
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:42,480
at nearly half the field. 
So you know I'll play, I'll play

624
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:44,880
puka instead, but I'm not 
hearing. 

625
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:49,840
I'll play cup instead. 
The if you would have went back 

626
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,000
to the beginning of the year 
right around the start of the 

627
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:54,840
draft season, obviously 
whatever. 

628
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,640
You know a lot has happened and 
Kyron and Puka are are the two 

629
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,200
biggest out of nowhere names in 
in fantasy of the season. 

630
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:02,080
But if you would have said that 
that the Rams would be in the 

631
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,600
playoffs and and you'd be 
projecting Cooper Cuff healthy 

632
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:09,000
at 15%, I would have my mind 
would have exploded. 

633
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,400
I don't know how I could have 
explained that like it couldn't 

634
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:13,320
have been fade. 
It's. 

635
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,800
Still, you still would have cut.
More than 15%. 

636
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:20,199
It's So Bizarre 2. 18th round 
best ball picks would be above, 

637
00:34:20,199 --> 00:34:21,719
but we. 
Trust them more? 

638
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,840
Yeah, it has to. 
That's the only way it makes 

639
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:25,239
sense. 
It has to be two other players 

640
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,800
that that the the field likes 
even more than cup. 

641
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:29,400
It's wild. 
Yeah. 

642
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:33,159
And and I mean we're getting 
comments here, Shorty Vegas 

643
00:34:33,159 --> 00:34:35,880
picks says cup might be 10% or 
less. 

644
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,360
He thinks I'm too bullish on 
cut. 

645
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,960
Is it that I so I've heard this 
a lot from subscribe subscribers

646
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:44,560
all year. 
The cut and the kuwa thing, it's

647
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,719
back and forth. 
I think everyone has a side 

648
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:48,960
here. 
There are people that think 

649
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,440
Nakua is the clear first round 
pick next year and the obvious 

650
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,440
heir apparent to cup. 
And I think there are other 

651
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:57,200
people that are still think Cup 
is the the clear above. 

652
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,480
And I think everyone kind of 
thinks their side is the clear 

653
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:01,800
side. 
But it's actually relatively 

654
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,600
close. 
I I do think there are people 

655
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,360
that are still in the Cup camp. 
I don't know it. 

656
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,300
I don't. 
I think the Cup Cup needs play 

657
00:35:09,300 --> 00:35:13,280
offs to to have his camp make 
any noise this offseason, I 

658
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,040
think. 
I'm saying going into. 

659
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,800
This, right, OK. 
In our chat for ADP chasing Sam 

660
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:23,800
Sherman was like saying that, 
you know, he's been he was 

661
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,120
railing against the Jalen 
Waddles of the world and he's 

662
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,480
like the next Cup wide receiver,
too. 

663
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,440
I'm going to be railing against 
his Cooper Cup. 

664
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,960
So he's already starting that 
drum beat. 

665
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,640
I think that's really convenient
when you just take when the when

666
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,760
the wide receiver two becomes 
the wide receiver one, you just 

667
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,560
you just flip them and say that 
like this cup would be a wide 

668
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,360
receiver one in this analogy, 
right? 

669
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,640
No, he's the he's saying he's 
the wide receiver two and he's 

670
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:52,240
overdrafted. 
So I think, I think you're going

671
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:57,200
to have plenty of people. 
I mean Puka like a rookie wide 

672
00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,160
receiver entering his second 
year just had the best rookie 

673
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:01,920
season ever. 
Like I think that. 

674
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,360
Yeah, no, I know people are 
going to be on for next year. 

675
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,600
I mean, for this I don't. 
Think they're I think people. 

676
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:11,200
I think it'll be like, really 
contrarian to be like I'm still 

677
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,280
cup as the wider singer one in 
in LA. 

678
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:19,520
Yeah, the yeah, the thing, I 
think the reason I think it's 

679
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:24,840
Puka is Puka's consistency has 
just been better. 

680
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:28,600
Like he hasn't been below 20% of
the targets all year. 

681
00:36:28,720 --> 00:36:30,640
You know Cup has had some of 
these swinging games. 

682
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,480
Cups like me dot at the 
beginning of the year was a 

683
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,560
really high A dot. 
They were using him down field. 

684
00:36:35,720 --> 00:36:39,280
Now in the past like few weeks 
it's been like sub seven, you 

685
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:41,480
know, like his usage has just 
been herky jerky. 

686
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,880
I feel like when people click 
Puka, they're like, I know what 

687
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:47,720
I'm getting, you know? 
And that feels better than the 

688
00:36:47,720 --> 00:36:50,720
mystery box of what I'm getting.
From you had this call on Depot 

689
00:36:50,720 --> 00:36:53,560
a couple years ago where you're 
just like he's the comfy clique 

690
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,000
man and he came in really high 
that year. 

691
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:58,720
Yeah. 
The thing, the reason obviously 

692
00:36:58,720 --> 00:37:03,120
these guys are going to stay in 
check is because of Kyron. 

693
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:07,520
And Kyron is more a product of 
how bad the running back options

694
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:11,680
are than anything else. 
And Kyron is the back who you 

695
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,800
say even if Detroit is winning, 
he's going to be on the field 

696
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,680
catching passes. 
He's not going to get game 

697
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,360
scripted out, he's not going to 
lose carries to anyone else. 

698
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,520
And I can use one of my running 
back spots on that. 

699
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,480
Like that is a profile people 
really, really like. 

700
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:29,120
It is interesting though to have
someone like Puka that can pull 

701
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,200
from him in a very comfy way, 
'cause you can tell yourself 

702
00:37:32,240 --> 00:37:36,440
even in a Rams win, Puka could 
easily be their top scorer over 

703
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:41,840
two games. 
For sure, and I do, I do only 

704
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:48,040
have 1% fade here to to answer 
Chris's question in the chat, 

705
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:50,280
but I think I'm pretty confident
about that. 

706
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:53,680
Like we've seen situations like 
this before. 

707
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:58,080
I would compare this to the 
Chargers from last year where 

708
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:03,960
they I projected the Chargers to
be 16% faded which you know 

709
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,120
makes sense given that they lost
in round one. 

710
00:38:06,720 --> 00:38:12,080
But they were 6%. 
So yeah, 18% projected 6%. 

711
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:14,480
One of my biggest misses 
actually I think. 

712
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:19,800
Yeah by far my my base over 
projection of a team last year 

713
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:22,560
actually. 
And then I under projected how 

714
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:23,920
much people would fade the 
Jaguars. 

715
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:27,040
So people were just like I'm I'm
taking echo or the comfy side of

716
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:28,240
this. 
I'm not going to figure out the 

717
00:38:28,240 --> 00:38:31,720
Jaguars side. 
I'm just going to fade them and 

718
00:38:31,720 --> 00:38:34,760
I I don't know that people will 
will go that route because it's 

719
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:36,800
actually comfy to click both 
sides of this game. 

720
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:43,400
But you know, there's no real 
reason to fade the Rams unless 

721
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:48,280
you're specifically thinking 
like a a couple steps down the 

722
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,760
line of, you know, I've got to 
play this against where the 

723
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,680
field is going. 
But like, we know that a lot of 

724
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:56,360
the field doesn't do that. 
They just pick what feels best. 

725
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:02,000
Also what checks out to me with 
your ownership too is like again

726
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,040
looking at the ADP's on 
Underdog. 

727
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:06,760
And I know it's different, not 
the exact same thing, but I I 

728
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:08,320
think it gives you a good 
sentiment Check. 

729
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:12,360
Kyron goes at 20, Puka shortly 
behind at 25, and then a seven 

730
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,840
pick gap to cup at 32, which is 
almost like the exact 

731
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,280
proportions you have in like 
4828. 

732
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:20,800
Fifteen. 
Wait, say that again. 

733
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:24,200
Say the pick, Tom. 
Kyron goes at pick 20, Puka goes

734
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:28,200
at 2526, he's 25.9 and then cups
at 32.2. 

735
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:34,960
So I so the whole chat's talking
about next year's ADP and and 

736
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:36,400
PAT year two. 
I wasn't talking about next 

737
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,400
year's ADP at all. 
It's very obvious that the 

738
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,680
Puka's going to go higher as a 
Year 2 receiver in ADP next 

739
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:43,640
year. 
I'm talking about this contest 

740
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,200
specifically, like right now 
where people are going to view 

741
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,680
it. 
And I do think I'm. 

742
00:39:48,720 --> 00:39:52,840
I'm curious about where Chase 
landed at his rookie year. 

743
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:56,560
They made the playoffs his 
rookie year and he was even more

744
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,280
highly touted, I think, at this.
Point I can. 

745
00:39:59,720 --> 00:40:02,080
Pull that up. 
Yeah, I'm curious where he 

746
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:05,040
landed 'cause I figured you 
might have that they didn't have

747
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:08,680
a Kyron type running back. 
Mixon was, I think reasonably 

748
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:10,680
owned, but not not where Kyron 
is at. 

749
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:14,320
But I am curious 'cause they had
Higgins as well at that time as 

750
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:18,280
a second year. 
But I, I, I, I think this is our

751
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,520
bubble. 
And everyone who is commenting 

752
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,360
in our chat and everyone who's 
in our world is more inclined to

753
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:25,440
like. 
Rookie receivers and then second

754
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,600
year receivers as well. 
It's a really interesting one. 

755
00:40:28,720 --> 00:40:34,360
This is a really good comp 
because Mixon came in at 48, OK 

756
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:40,320
and Jamar Chase came in at 31 
and Higgins came in at 9:00. 

757
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:45,680
So this we could literally see 
the exact same percentages of 

758
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:48,520
these three this year. 
I was going to say that had to 

759
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:51,800
be a bigger gap than this 
because Higgins was a second 

760
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:56,880
year player and not just had the
best season of all time couple 

761
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:00,240
years ago and people will say 
Cooper Cup in the playoffs a 

762
00:41:00,240 --> 00:41:03,280
couple years ago that Stafford's
going to trust Cooper Cup again 

763
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:08,320
in the playoffs in this spot. 
But I mean if you guys, I mean I

764
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:11,240
might be the only one that sees 
that, that that sort of boomer 

765
00:41:11,240 --> 00:41:13,560
angle. 
I think people that that people 

766
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:16,000
outside our circle will think 
that a little bit more. 

767
00:41:17,720 --> 00:41:22,160
But if I'm the only one who who 
kind of sees that view, then I 

768
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:23,480
think that's the way it should 
be. 

769
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,240
I think Kop and Nakua should be 
a toss up. 

770
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:28,480
I actually, and I I think I'm 
going to be 1 to be heavy on Kop

771
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,120
if this feels even like a high 
projection at 15. 

772
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,120
Well, one of the things about 
doing these right is if you 

773
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:38,200
project them and then you go, Oh
my. 

774
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:41,440
God, what an. 
Opportunity then maybe you've 

775
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:45,280
just mis projected it so. 
So that's where I'm like 

776
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,360
hesitant to. 
Nakua has been a lot more 

777
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,680
consistent throughout the 
season, but when their season is

778
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:54,400
on the line, do you guys believe
that Nakua has established 

779
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:57,600
himself as more targetable than 
Cup? 

780
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:00,440
Like go back to that Baltimore 
game, they went balls out in 

781
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,600
that game, they got basically 
identical targets and the Cup 

782
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:05,080
ended up having a little bit of 
a better game. 

783
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:06,760
But that's what I think it is. 
I think it's a toss up. 

784
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:09,320
And so if Nakua is going to 
carry double ownership then I 

785
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:11,800
want to be on Cup. 
I don't think it's NAKUA should 

786
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:15,360
be double cup basically should 
be an inefficient market. 

787
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,320
That doesn't mean what it what 
it will be. 

788
00:42:17,720 --> 00:42:19,360
And I think you guys are 
convincing and the chat's kind 

789
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,680
of convincing me. 
I just wonder, maybe this is our

790
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,280
our bubble a little bit too. 
He shouldn't be double, but what

791
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:29,160
happens in this tournament is 
that 6040 type decisions get 

792
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:34,200
split, 8020 in what happens. 
No one's like people. 

793
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:37,240
It's not like very few of the 
people go. 

794
00:42:37,240 --> 00:42:40,880
I guess I'll take the 40 to make
sure that I have the the lower 

795
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,200
own side. 
Everyone's like the more I think

796
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,400
about it, I do prefer pukka. 
So that's why we'll play, yeah. 

797
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,840
Yeah, this is, this is 
definitely an interesting one. 

798
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:54,760
I I I could see it, Yeah, the 
cup stuff coming up a smidge, 

799
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:58,360
pook coming down just a smidge. 
But I I think this is a pretty 

800
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:02,000
good reflection of how the 
market feels about it right now.

801
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:03,800
And Kyron makes a ton of sense 
too. 

802
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:08,240
It's a tough RB market. 
Oh yeah, We know McVeigh, like 

803
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,520
is a is a fantastic coach for 
running backs. 

804
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:12,680
They're going to rush inside the
10, right? 

805
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:14,400
He's going to get Green Zone 
carries. 

806
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:16,440
They're going to. 
I mean, even in a loss, he could

807
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:18,360
have a two touchdown game, 
right? 

808
00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:22,000
He hasn't caught as many balls 
lately, right? 

809
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,760
Is that. 
I mean, that's one minor concern

810
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:26,880
I have for him in a loss. 
Like, could he be a little bit 

811
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:28,800
trappy? 
He's a little bit. 

812
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:30,000
Oh, he. 
Could definitely be trapped. 

813
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,720
I think he's potentially pretty 
bad chalk, but I do. 

814
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:36,280
I mean, I had him higher, I had 
him in the 50s and I brought him

815
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:40,480
down some 'cause it was just 
like, he's so easy to fade in at

816
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:44,320
kind of like 55 plus. 
But so if. 

817
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,440
You don't want to make if you 
don't want to make the wide 

818
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:48,440
receiver decision. 
You just take Kyron. 

819
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:49,600
You just take. 
You just take. 

820
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:53,960
Kyron and I do think he compares
a little bit to to mixing from a

821
00:43:53,960 --> 00:44:00,440
few years ago which that the 
running back position from two 

822
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:07,960
years ago we had 2.46 running 
backs played and that's about 

823
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:13,480
what I have projected this year.
So actually that's exactly what 

824
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,400
I have projected this year. 
So it's similar kind of strength

825
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:18,880
of the position, meaning it's 
not that strong. 

826
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:25,520
And so mixing allowed people to 
kind of put, you know, a guy 

827
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:27,920
who's going to get all the 
touches and just let me get one 

828
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,400
of my my running back spots 
locked down with a three down 

829
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:32,600
workhorse. 
That's very appealing in this 

830
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:35,400
kind of field. 
So I don't know that Kyron can 

831
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:39,080
really come that much further 
down than this given that we're 

832
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:41,760
gonna see some fate of Tampa Bay
Rashad White. 

833
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:44,200
You also then have to give up 
Mike Evans, which is kind of a 

834
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,760
more fun way to play that game. 
So it's just it's just like kind

835
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:51,480
of hard to get off of Kyron. 
I mean, maybe he's more like 44 

836
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,000
percent or something, but. 
It's not. 

837
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:55,800
I think he's he's higher than 
this. 

838
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,160
If anything, I think you have 
that part of it right for sure. 

839
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,760
Yeah. 
All right, this this could be a 

840
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:03,480
four hour show if we don't pick 
up the pace. 

841
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:05,960
Granted, this is like one of the
more interesting ones. 

842
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:08,520
Let's let's head over to Dallas 
if we can have a very quick 

843
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,320
conversation about CD Lamb. 
Yeah. 

844
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:18,000
So I. 
Guess the question is, is it 

845
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,760
worth pivoting off him in any in
any case? 

846
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,600
Not really. 
So it's so hard, I guess. 

847
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:28,320
I think the gal brain is what 
Pat has right? 

848
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:33,080
Where you say Jake Ferguson 
scores 2 TDs and a loss is is 

849
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,920
basically like the gal brain way
you you get there. 

850
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:38,800
Or Tony Pollard is slightly 
efficient. 

851
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:43,560
Nope, you don't do that. 
Tony Pollard, ADR Rushing TD. 

852
00:45:44,240 --> 00:45:47,200
Yeah. 
Listen, I do not want this to be

853
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:49,200
us. 
Don't, don't let this, don't let

854
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,080
this 2% be us. 
I don't want it to be us. 

855
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:52,880
I do not want to play Tony 
Pollard. 

856
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:58,040
Yeah, I just, I can't even. 
Even if someone wants to play 

857
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:01,800
Cowboys Super Bowl run, then you
maybe start to say could you see

858
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:05,520
Dak spreading out. 
But I mean, Lamb has just been 

859
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:07,440
the focal point. 
I just don't know how you get 

860
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:10,800
anywhere else. 
You're going to find other 

861
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,320
opportunities, I think as well 
to get different. 

862
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:18,120
Like I think the field is going 
to condense massively to Josh 

863
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:22,160
Allen and Lamar Jackson. 
So if you, like, wanted to play 

864
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:27,880
Purdy, Dak or Hertz, which are 
all pretty strong quarterback 

865
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:33,000
plays, you're going to be crazy,
crazy different on that one 

866
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,360
decision alone. 
And those are all make you have 

867
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:39,120
a pit in your stomach a little 
bit, but a smaller pit than 

868
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,480
fading CD lamp for Jake 
Ferguson. 

869
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:48,760
Yeah, yeah, I mean, CD Lambs 
scored a touchdown in nine 

870
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:51,920
straight games. 
I mean, there is not a comfier 

871
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:55,320
clique in this contest. 
I I'd argue it's even comfier 

872
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:59,320
than CMC when you say I get to 
get potentially 3-4 games from 

873
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:01,400
him. 
I have him higher than CMC. 

874
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,040
Yeah. 
All right, let's talk about. 

875
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:06,960
Aren't you worried about Dryer 
Alexander? 

876
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:13,520
Be a little. 
Shit, this one is interesting to

877
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:18,320
me in that I I agree with the 
mega Green Bay fade just when 

878
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,960
you look at the two biggest dogs
on the slate. 

879
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:23,600
But I I think the market is 
playing this wrong. 

880
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:25,880
When you look at the total, you 
look at the Dome, the game 

881
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:30,320
environment, this seems like a 
spot that I want a skill 

882
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:33,240
position or even a soft fade, 
just 'cause I think there could 

883
00:47:33,240 --> 00:47:36,840
be a lot of points here. 
But I do agree the field is not 

884
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:39,000
going to want to deal with this 
spot for the Packers. 

885
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:43,760
Yeah. 
And like I think the issue is 

886
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:47,480
who do you pick because Jaden 
Reed definitely you know has 

887
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:52,520
some appeal given how he's come 
on Aaron Jones is a is a fun you

888
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:57,160
know kind of gal brain running 
back play Christian Watson you 

889
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:00,480
could like maybe consider it 
might have him too high at 2% to

890
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:06,240
be honest though so that I mean 
just like but then you're like 

891
00:48:06,240 --> 00:48:10,000
man OK I'm playing Jaden Reed 
that's fun when I just think 

892
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:13,400
about that part. 
But now I'm not playing Tyreek 

893
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:18,000
Hill that sucks. 
Jaden Reed versus Tyreek Hill. 

894
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:20,240
Jaden Reed versus Mike Evans. 
Jaden Reed versus A.J. 

895
00:48:20,240 --> 00:48:22,400
Brown. 
You know, you can kind of go 

896
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,160
around the. 
Lead confident I. 

897
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:26,760
Feel I feel. 
I mean, how confident do you 

898
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:30,200
even feel in Jaden Reed versus 
Robio Dobbs or Dantavian Wicks 

899
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,320
or Christian Watson? 
I mean, you feel, you don't 

900
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:33,640
feel. 
Confident, but not a mate. 

901
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:36,880
I might take this and to give it
a little to Jones, cause Jones. 

902
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:38,760
Is. 
I think Jones is, yeah, that's 

903
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:40,600
what I was gonna say. 
That's where I was gonna go, 

904
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:41,880
'cause I do think. 
I think you. 

905
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,880
Can't feel confident enough on 
the on the pass catchers and 

906
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:49,640
running back is a constraint. 
Jones is the running back. 

907
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:51,480
You play, you're not playing AJ 
Dillon. 

908
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:53,520
The receiver stuff is really 
tricky. 

909
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:57,240
Maybe that's the way people play
it because Jones unlocks 

910
00:48:57,240 --> 00:49:00,520
something, at least where Reed 
just feels like. 

911
00:49:01,240 --> 00:49:03,920
What's the point? 
But honestly, I think I might. 

912
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:08,760
It's possible I have the Packers
too low as as the as the fate. 

913
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:13,160
That that's my, that's my thing.
Like, I personally think that's 

914
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:16,360
way too low, but I'm still 
trying to say Will is that how 

915
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,040
the field will play it though? 
Yeah. 

916
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:23,800
And if that's I think 1 where if
we get A.J. 

917
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:27,600
Brown news, this is another spot
where people would just go, OK, 

918
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,280
I have A.J. 
Brown that makes me not only 

919
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,000
feel better about A.J. 
Brown, it makes me feel better 

920
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:33,600
about playing Mike Evans on the 
other side. 

921
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:37,560
There's this is gonna be a fun 
game you know, or playing Rashad

922
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:40,800
White on the other side. 
And so I'm gonna move off of 

923
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:44,640
this Jane and Reed galbraing 
idea I had on Wednesday and just

924
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:46,520
play the best plays over in this
other game. 

925
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:50,040
Yeah. 
And there is. 

926
00:49:50,240 --> 00:49:53,120
I mean your point about the the 
Tyree thing is really 

927
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:54,840
interesting 'cause there is 4 
fades. 

928
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:57,120
I mean for people who don't 
really remember the math of this

929
00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:00,520
and and everything, there's four
fades, there's six games on 

930
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:03,320
opening weekend, presuming 
you're not fading the Ravens or 

931
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,120
the Niners which you can also 
fade those teams theoretically 

932
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:09,360
and play them as a one and done.
But most people are not going to

933
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:12,520
six games opening weekend. 
You're going to have six losers 

934
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:15,320
opening weekend and your 4 fades
need to be among those six 

935
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:17,360
losers most of the time. 
Which means there's two games 

936
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,640
where you get to play both sides
of it that we know the match up 

937
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:25,040
going into Week 1 and and So 
what are the two best 

938
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:27,680
opportunities to do that The 
Rams Lions we just talked about 

939
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:29,800
is one of those potentially 
right. 

940
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:31,320
I mean that feels like a really 
good one. 

941
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,400
Dolphins Chiefs feels like a 
really good one even like I 

942
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:37,760
would argue like Browns. 
Texans can can be argued but I 

943
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,320
mean as they're saying people 
might not play either side. 

944
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:42,240
We just talked about the Eagles 
box. 

945
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:47,480
This Packers Cowboys game is in 
there, but it's not like I like 

946
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,560
your call, Pete, that I don't 
think people are going to play 

947
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,400
both sides of it as much as they
should in a Dome with A50 over 

948
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:54,000
under. 
It's not the immediate one that 

949
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:55,840
grabs you. 
Yep. 

950
00:50:56,320 --> 00:51:00,320
And even like Aaron Jones, he 
does obviously have some pass 

951
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:02,960
catching chops. 
But I think people do worry 

952
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:06,680
about playing big underdog 
running backs. 

953
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:09,600
You know, like they they would 
do it with an Alvin Kamara CMC 

954
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:12,360
type profile If they say like he
could catch 8 or 9 balls. 

955
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,080
I don't think Aaron Jones is in 
that territory with his profile 

956
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:17,760
this year. 
And just, I mean Jordan Love 

957
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,960
doesn't even check down that 
much either. 

958
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:22,520
So I don't know. 
I'm just saying like if you're 

959
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:25,840
playing it that way of like, hey
the Cowboys smash, I would 

960
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:30,080
rather than play like Jaden Reed
if I was going to play like 

961
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:32,360
someone, that's like how my 
thought process would work. 

962
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:33,520
Or Jaden. 
Yeah, that makes sense. 

963
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:36,520
Like he could get there in 
either game script. 

964
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:40,120
Yeah, that makes sense in in 
late game you know chasing and 

965
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:44,480
throwing I the more we talk 
about it, I do think Reid could 

966
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:46,760
have some some ownership there. 
I think that that that made 

967
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:50,120
sense. 
The other part of it is. 

968
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:55,440
Being kind of a hero for people.
So that was where my initial 

969
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:56,840
Reid. 
Was Yeah, that makes sense. 

970
00:51:57,200 --> 00:51:59,280
Lamb. 
Being such a comfy clique on the

971
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:02,120
other side, then you're like, 
well, OK, I'm picking the 

972
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:04,520
Cowboys to win. 
Oh, and the Cowboys have a great

973
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:06,480
defense. 
All right, fine. 

974
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:07,960
I'm just gonna fade the pack 
like it. 

975
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,560
It all fits in. 
So easy to just tell yourself to

976
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:12,880
fade the Packers. 
It does, yeah. 

977
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:17,200
I just added some to to Andrews.
Carlson brought the total fade 

978
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:22,360
from 82 to 84 and that let me 
bump Jones and Reed down a 

979
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:23,920
little bit. 
But I wonder, I bet if you're 

980
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:26,480
going to play wider CV, play 
Reed, probably not Watson. 

981
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:31,960
So this is where I think we'll 
settle 9% for Reed, 9% for. 

982
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,960
But just to like so the reason I
think the markets getting this 

983
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:40,280
like Okay the Steelers, the 
other full fade team by the 

984
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:42,800
Boomer opto and by the 
percentages their team total 

985
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:46,880
this weekend is 13. 
Green Bay's team total is 21.5. 

986
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:48,960
It is higher team total than 
Miami. 

987
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:52,880
Like the market is going to get 
that full fade wrong. 

988
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:56,040
Like if you're just full fading 
by a team total, it should be 

989
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:58,000
Miami. 
They're the only other team sub 

990
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:00,480
twenty team total on this slate.
But people are going to full 

991
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,280
fade the Packers at a much 
higher clip. 

992
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:05,680
In defense of the field though, 
you don't just full fade based 

993
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:08,560
on team total because we have to
predict where the points are 

994
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:13,240
going to go. 
And the Dolphins, I mean it's so

995
00:53:13,240 --> 00:53:15,320
much easier to predict where the
points are going to go. 

996
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:20,400
So there is now is to the level 
of of how the ownerships are 

997
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:23,000
going to come in. 
No, no, I mean the field is 

998
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:27,280
going to be overconfident. 
But it's still like, I get it. 

999
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:32,240
I get why it's like, yes, yes, 
the team total slightly higher 

1000
00:53:32,240 --> 00:53:35,040
in Green Bay, but where are the 
points going to go? 

1001
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:36,680
And I can just play Tyreek 
instead? 

1002
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:39,520
Yeah. 
I mean, I I would argue things 

1003
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:43,480
are, I mean like Jane Reed since
week 12 has had a 21% target 

1004
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:45,640
share, 32% targets per route 
run. 

1005
00:53:45,720 --> 00:53:48,560
Obviously he's not Tyree Kill, 
but I do think there's 

1006
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:51,560
confidence in who Jaden Reed is 
at this point. 

1007
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:56,840
So do you think should I have 
Jones a little lower and Reed a 

1008
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:58,680
little higher than we've kind of
come full circle? 

1009
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:01,600
Again, I'm I'm getting at the 
point too where I'm like arguing

1010
00:54:01,600 --> 00:54:04,480
for like my personal takes on 
what's efficient versus what the

1011
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:07,480
field will actually. 
Do He is beloved right now. 

1012
00:54:07,480 --> 00:54:11,120
I mean, he's been a hero. 
Yeah, but so is, I mean, I think

1013
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:13,880
people like Dante, there's a 
couple Dante and Wicks comments 

1014
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:15,680
in the chat. 
I mean, I think there are people

1015
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:18,680
that maybe I don't think Dobbs 
has that kind of appeal. 

1016
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:20,960
No, I agree with everything 
Pete's saying. 

1017
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:25,120
I do go back to it's hard to 
pick any of the Packers pass 

1018
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:30,040
catchers and so I think you've 
now gone back too far low on on 

1019
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:31,240
Jones. 
I think people are going to go 

1020
00:54:31,240 --> 00:54:34,800
to Jones for the RB2 spot like 
they they need the RB, right? 

1021
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:38,640
And Dallas has had some teams 
really run against them and you 

1022
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:40,680
can tell yourself they're going 
to unleash Aaron Jones and give 

1023
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:42,360
them 15 carries in the first 
half. 

1024
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:44,800
Like look what the Bills did to 
beat them. 

1025
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:47,240
They ran the ball. 
They they used James Cook, who 

1026
00:54:47,240 --> 00:54:49,040
was basically there. 
Aaron Jones. 

1027
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:51,120
He had a monster game against 
them, right? 

1028
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:53,760
Like an efficient, slashing 
running back. 

1029
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:57,920
Yeah, yeah. 
I don't think Wix is. 

1030
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:01,520
I mean, I know people. 
Wix strikes me as a $35 contest 

1031
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:05,680
play. 
You will see some Wix last, but 

1032
00:55:05,680 --> 00:55:07,480
they will round down to zero I 
think. 

1033
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:10,040
Yeah, especially if Watson is 
active. 

1034
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:13,800
All right. 
Should we? 

1035
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:16,480
I'm just saying that in terms of
feeling confident about Reid. 

1036
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:18,400
I agree with Pete. 
I think people know who Reid is,

1037
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:22,320
but it's still like a little bit
tricky because there are 

1038
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:24,600
interesting other names. 
Basically sort of the. 

1039
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:27,120
Yeah. 
Like no one wants to play AJ 

1040
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:28,680
Dillon. 
There's no AJ Dillon. 

1041
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:31,320
No, no, AJ. 
Dillon, let's wrap up. 

1042
00:55:32,720 --> 00:55:35,320
NF or what, Niners? 
Yeah, right. 

1043
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:36,480
That's the last one we have in 
the NFC. 

1044
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:42,040
This was also obviously another 
early part of the Boomer opto, 

1045
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:45,960
putting in Christian McCaffrey. 
Pat has him here at 80%. 

1046
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:48,280
Definitely feels right. 
I guess it's a slightly more 

1047
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:51,760
interesting conversation than 
the Cowboys because you know, 

1048
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:54,680
they actually have some really 
good players who have flashed 

1049
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,880
high end efficiency and high end
ceilings. 

1050
00:55:56,880 --> 00:56:00,520
Like anyone can tell themselves 
a story of one of these top four

1051
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:04,520
guys being the top scorer in a 
single game scenario, and 

1052
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,400
probably two of them like I'll 
I'll drop Kittle out of there 

1053
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:09,680
being the optimal in A2 game 
scenario. 

1054
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:13,200
Like if you told me Debo or Iuke
was the highest scorer over two 

1055
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:15,360
games, I wouldn't say you were 
crazy. 

1056
00:56:15,360 --> 00:56:20,000
So I think that's interesting, 
But we know the field is going 

1057
00:56:20,000 --> 00:56:23,880
to pile on to CMC specifically 
because of the running back. 

1058
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:29,200
The running back issue, yeah. 
And one thing I'll say here is I

1059
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:35,080
have San Francisco being faded. 
All fades, soft fades, Kicker D 

1060
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:38,360
plus no one playing anything at 
all at just 1%. 

1061
00:56:39,000 --> 00:56:44,320
But if that feels off at all, 
last year we had the Chiefs, 

1062
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:52,080
Bills, and Bengals all at 1%. 
We had the 49ers last year at 2%

1063
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:57,000
total fade. 2 years ago, the 
Packers and the Chiefs came in 

1064
00:56:57,000 --> 00:57:00,560
at 1% and the Bengals were a 2% 
total fade. 

1065
00:57:00,560 --> 00:57:03,800
So this is a contest where 
certain teams, people just like 

1066
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:08,560
don't fade them. 
And so I I think I just have 1% 

1067
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:12,280
D and everyone else is playing a
49er and I think that's the way 

1068
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:14,640
to go. 
Like you play if you're going to

1069
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:18,880
pivot off of the off of 
McCaffrey, go to Kittle, go to 

1070
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:22,480
Debo, I don't think you or IU, 
you don't need to go or Purdy, 

1071
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:24,360
right? 
There's no reason not to play 

1072
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:27,080
49. 
Yeah, Purdy is. 

1073
00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:30,360
There's some some some chats 
about Purdy. 

1074
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:32,960
Sam Sherman mentions it. 
He's an interesting one. 

1075
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:34,480
You obviously don't get the 
first week. 

1076
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:40,960
You also get the two likeliest 
bring backs on the AFC are 

1077
00:57:40,960 --> 00:57:44,560
strong quarterback teams. 
Lamar and Josh Allen are the two

1078
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:48,760
highest odds coming back and so 
yeah, I mean I think Purdy makes

1079
00:57:48,760 --> 00:57:52,520
sense if you're building AKC 
title game and and maybe even a 

1080
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:55,400
a different dark horse, but. 
You're almost asking some 

1081
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:59,200
question. 
'Cause if it's if it's Buffalo 

1082
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:03,520
or Baltimore, Alan or Lamar is 
gonna outscore Alan or Lamar 

1083
00:58:03,520 --> 00:58:07,520
plus whatever of San Fran's 
concentrated superstars scores 

1084
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:11,200
the most, is gonna outscore 
Purdy plus Diggs or Purdy plus 

1085
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:12,920
Zayflowers. 
It's just gonna. 

1086
00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:16,040
Yeah, you you would probably 
need the winner of the Dolphins 

1087
00:58:16,040 --> 00:58:19,040
Chiefs game to go to the Super 
Bowl cause like Purdy can hang 

1088
00:58:19,160 --> 00:58:22,680
with like Mahomes and into a. 
And then you could have Kelsey, 

1089
00:58:22,840 --> 00:58:26,720
you know, you could have Hill. 
Yeah, yeah, exactly. 

1090
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:29,880
But I think you're pretty much 
drawing dead if if it's one of 

1091
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:32,560
the top 2 seeds from the AFC who
makes the Super Bowl, which is 

1092
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:34,720
not a fun place to start. 
Yeah. 

1093
00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:37,720
And I do. 
I do vaguely like Purdy as a 

1094
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:39,760
play. 
I mean, I I 'cause he like he he

1095
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:41,200
they can spread it around 
enough. 

1096
00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:44,560
And the 2X on the Super Bowl? 
They're a really high Super Bowl

1097
00:58:44,560 --> 00:58:47,080
odds team. 
He could hit each of these four 

1098
00:58:47,080 --> 00:58:49,480
guys for ATD in the Super Bowl, 
have four TD packs. 

1099
00:58:49,480 --> 00:58:51,800
You could start it out. 
You're gonna have a game? 

1100
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:53,400
Yeah, it could. 
Definitely happen. 

1101
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:55,200
It's like it's. 
Hard. 

1102
00:58:55,200 --> 00:58:57,800
When you then do the dynamics 
of, well then who are they 

1103
00:58:57,800 --> 00:59:00,480
playing? 
Because I probably want the QB 

1104
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:02,600
on the other side, you know? 
Yeah. 

1105
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:06,240
Yeah, see, I'm saying Purdy's 
only two points per game behind 

1106
00:59:06,240 --> 00:59:08,960
Lamar, but that's obviously not 
the only consideration. 

1107
00:59:08,960 --> 00:59:11,880
The consideration is yeah, no. 
You think they pull hours away? 

1108
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:15,480
How far is Christian McCaffrey 
ahead of Gus Edwards? 

1109
00:59:15,480 --> 00:59:17,640
Why don't you pull that? 
Yeah, that's the problem that 

1110
00:59:18,440 --> 00:59:22,480
that's really the problem. 
I I don't Now there's two 

1111
00:59:22,480 --> 00:59:25,960
questions here. 
One is is the ownership wrong 

1112
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:28,360
and the other is it's pretty a 
good play. 

1113
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:30,560
I don't think the ownership is 
wrong. 

1114
00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:34,360
No, it's not. 
If if anything, you might even 

1115
00:59:34,480 --> 00:59:38,840
end up be a smidge light. 
I think, I think it might go up 

1116
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:41,400
a little bit higher than this. 
You're saying? 

1117
00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:43,560
Oh yeah. 
Yeah, it's like I'm saying I 

1118
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:47,640
could see him at 85. 
Oh, you think McCaffrey? 

1119
00:59:47,640 --> 00:59:49,880
No, no, I was saying that I 
could see Purdy at like 5% 

1120
00:59:49,880 --> 00:59:52,400
'cause there's such a high odds 
to win the title and you just go

1121
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:54,200
high odds to win the title, take
the QB. 

1122
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:58,160
Yeah, I don't think I'm open to 
playing a little Purdy, but I 

1123
00:59:58,160 --> 01:00:01,840
think there's there's no way 
he's going to be over Kittle, 

1124
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:10,120
Samuel or Ayuk. 
Yeah, I I think he's, his cap is

1125
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:13,840
like 4. 
Like maybe he could get there. 

1126
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:15,600
But the problem, we haven't done
the AFC yet. 

1127
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:20,080
But like, when you go to the AFC
like I did, or I've done several

1128
01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:23,000
rounds where I go around and I 
just steal ownership and I give 

1129
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:27,160
it to Josh Allen because I think
there's going to be a big, 

1130
01:00:27,160 --> 01:00:29,840
there's going to be a lot of 
steam on Allen, even though I 

1131
01:00:29,840 --> 01:00:34,120
think Lamarr's the primary chalk
of quarterback people. 

1132
01:00:34,120 --> 01:00:35,560
Maybe that's where we should go 
next. 

1133
01:00:35,560 --> 01:00:38,080
Yeah, let's go to. 
You want to go let's go to let's

1134
01:00:38,080 --> 01:00:39,080
go to Ravens. 
Yeah. 

1135
01:00:39,920 --> 01:00:45,320
So Lamar, I have a 55. 
When I first started thinking 

1136
01:00:45,320 --> 01:00:49,400
about this I was like before the
games were played last week I 

1137
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:53,920
was like man, Lamar could be 
6667%. 

1138
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:57,160
But then when the Bills got the 
two seed I think that changes 

1139
01:00:57,160 --> 01:00:59,600
things. 
I think there's like some 

1140
01:01:01,240 --> 01:01:04,880
there's some interesting stuff 
that I've when I've tried to be 

1141
01:01:04,880 --> 01:01:08,120
thinking through and getting 
other people's opinion on Allen.

1142
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:15,040
No one dislikes the Allen play. 
No one is because they're sort 

1143
01:01:15,040 --> 01:01:17,400
of like, oh, Lamar will be huge 
chalk. 

1144
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:20,800
But I like out or there's kind 
of actually, I think Allen might

1145
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:22,200
be the chalk, which I have a 
harder it's. 

1146
01:01:22,240 --> 01:01:24,560
The GPP pivot that is no longer 
sneaky. 

1147
01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:27,760
It's not sneaky at all. 
Like, do not think you're If 

1148
01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:32,600
you're playing Purdy or Dak 
Mahomes or Hurts, you are being 

1149
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:34,440
sneaky. 
If you play Josh Allen, you are 

1150
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:36,400
not being sneaky. 
At all. 

1151
01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:39,920
People think that's sneaky, like
I've. 

1152
01:01:40,320 --> 01:01:42,320
I've heard some sneaky takes, 
yeah. 

1153
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:45,040
He's been. 
He's been in shock QB for years 

1154
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:46,800
in this contest, right? 
It's been. 

1155
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:51,440
It's it's one of those things 
where if you go, everyone's 

1156
01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:54,120
gonna play Lamar. 
So I'll play on. 

1157
01:01:54,440 --> 01:01:56,600
But I that's that's where I 
started. 

1158
01:01:56,600 --> 01:02:00,160
But slowly, I've just been 
lowering Lamar and bringing up 

1159
01:02:00,160 --> 01:02:03,600
Allen, and I still have him at 
55 and Allen's in the 30s. 

1160
01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:06,480
But there's going to be plenty 
of Allen. 

1161
01:02:07,400 --> 01:02:10,160
There's plenty of Allen. 
I would still bet a ton of money

1162
01:02:10,200 --> 01:02:14,040
that Lamar comes in at higher 
ownership than Allen, but I do 

1163
01:02:14,040 --> 01:02:18,800
completely agree that Allen is 
going to be the second most 

1164
01:02:19,160 --> 01:02:22,240
popular quarterback. 
And they're going to combine for

1165
01:02:22,520 --> 01:02:26,160
a lot, at least 80%, I mean, a 
lot, right? 

1166
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:31,640
Yeah. 5535, is that what do you 
have Allen at right now? 

1167
01:02:32,360 --> 01:02:35,000
I have Allen. 
That would be 90. 

1168
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:37,360
Yeah. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1169
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:39,680
No, that's like more where I 
have, I have Allen at 34. 

1170
01:02:40,080 --> 01:02:41,720
Yeah, you have it at 90. 
Yeah. 

1171
01:02:41,760 --> 01:02:42,480
Wow. 
Yeah. 

1172
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:44,360
They just. 
Yeah. 

1173
01:02:44,360 --> 01:02:47,040
And I I feel like both of those 
numbers are like, it's like how 

1174
01:02:47,040 --> 01:02:49,680
can they both go up? 
Right, that dude. 

1175
01:02:49,800 --> 01:02:51,920
I mean, how can they both go up?
Has been one of the things I've 

1176
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:55,080
done all day. 
Like, actually, how often you 

1177
01:02:55,080 --> 01:02:57,480
don't need this 1%, Stafford, 
1%. 

1178
01:02:57,480 --> 01:02:58,440
Give me a break. 
No way. 

1179
01:02:58,640 --> 01:03:00,920
It's all going. 
I'm just throwing it all at 

1180
01:03:00,920 --> 01:03:05,760
Lamar and Allen. 
The big thing for Allen is you 

1181
01:03:05,760 --> 01:03:07,680
get the extra game. 
People are going to be like, 

1182
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:10,360
yeah, but I mean you you can get
a four-game run. 

1183
01:03:11,320 --> 01:03:13,600
Yelp. 
Yeah, the. 

1184
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:16,160
I mean, even with that. 
And I I saw Steph in the chat 

1185
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:17,760
she was mentioning, and I've 
seen it too. 

1186
01:03:18,440 --> 01:03:21,400
Allen going ahead of Lamar in 
underdog drafts. 

1187
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:25,000
Maybe the ADP will refresh and 
push him closer, but Lamar still

1188
01:03:25,000 --> 01:03:30,480
goes ahead of him ADP wise 3.2 
to 5.1 and getting the added 

1189
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:33,120
game there is even more 
important because you literally 

1190
01:03:33,120 --> 01:03:35,080
have to get the team. 
He's going ahead of. 

1191
01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:39,520
He's going ahead of Lamar on DK.
He should. 

1192
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:42,600
Definitely be going ahead of 
Lamar in in undertalk, in my 

1193
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:45,040
opinion as somebody who has not 
done a lot of those drafts. 

1194
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:46,320
Yeah, I think that's a fair 
take. 

1195
01:03:47,160 --> 01:03:53,200
Yeah, I bumped them up above in 
our DK rankings, which we have 

1196
01:03:53,200 --> 01:03:54,080
DK rankings. 
We're. 

1197
01:03:54,200 --> 01:04:00,440
Yeah, we're we're working on it.
Yeah, nice plug. 

1198
01:04:01,040 --> 01:04:03,920
Nice plug. 
I wasn't supposed to say 

1199
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:06,360
anything about that. 
Let's real quickly talk about 

1200
01:04:06,360 --> 01:04:08,840
these other plays like how you 
have the ownership here. 

1201
01:04:08,840 --> 01:04:12,640
Looks like spot on me. 
Zay Flowers will be a good 

1202
01:04:12,640 --> 01:04:14,960
secondary option if you don't 
play Lamar. 

1203
01:04:15,120 --> 01:04:18,040
I think people can talk 
themselves into Likely and 

1204
01:04:18,040 --> 01:04:19,480
Justin Tucker. 
Mr. Ave. 

1205
01:04:19,480 --> 01:04:23,920
Maria himself just always has 
such strong brand recognition 

1206
01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:26,400
for the boomers who think Lamar 
Jackson is a running back and 

1207
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:28,720
don't want to play him. 
Justin Tucker always feels 

1208
01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:32,320
pretty comfy there. 
So yeah, this is one of those 

1209
01:04:32,320 --> 01:04:36,960
ones where I've heard enough of 
the Justin Tucker take that I'm 

1210
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:40,200
taking it seriously. 
You know, I listen to the high 

1211
01:04:40,200 --> 01:04:43,680
stakes Spanish Football hour 
with the guys who won last year.

1212
01:04:44,280 --> 01:04:46,760
They were touting Justin Tucker.
Really. 

1213
01:04:47,080 --> 01:04:49,840
Yeah, I think. 
Tucker playing Ravens as a as a 

1214
01:04:49,840 --> 01:04:52,600
one and done. 
Yeah, I think, I think if you 

1215
01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:57,360
don't want to deal, I I think 
what it's going to be is like, 

1216
01:04:57,720 --> 01:05:02,040
you know what, I'd rather play 
Allen and therefore the Ravens 

1217
01:05:02,040 --> 01:05:04,920
will lose 'cause I don't wanna 
fucking deal with longer Ravens.

1218
01:05:06,000 --> 01:05:08,240
I think you're gonna get that. 
And I actually wonder if I may 

1219
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:12,960
be light on the Baltimore fade 
because and this has come up, 

1220
01:05:13,000 --> 01:05:15,120
I've got 12% of the field 
fading. 

1221
01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:19,040
Baltimore now that's pretty high
for a one seed. 

1222
01:05:19,040 --> 01:05:21,440
I think that's probably the 
highest one seed that we've ever

1223
01:05:21,520 --> 01:05:23,240
had as far as I. 
I haven't played with the 

1224
01:05:23,240 --> 01:05:25,000
bracket enough, but how do they 
lose? 

1225
01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:26,400
What's the bracket where they 
lose? 

1226
01:05:26,600 --> 01:05:29,200
It's the Browns or the. 
It's the Browns. 

1227
01:05:31,000 --> 01:05:32,600
I think people play it as the 
Browns. 

1228
01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:35,560
I don't even think it. 
OK, so maybe it's the Browns, 

1229
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:38,720
but let's assume that it's not 
even the Browns or Texas. 

1230
01:05:38,720 --> 01:05:42,720
You have to have an upset. 
And then so, like, the Dolphins 

1231
01:05:42,720 --> 01:05:44,840
could be the one that goes to 
Baltimore, right? 

1232
01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:48,680
Or if the Steelers beat the 
Bills, they would go to the end.

1233
01:05:48,680 --> 01:05:49,920
No, that's not. 
That's not. 

1234
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:53,080
I think the way people would 
play it, the the comfiest way to

1235
01:05:53,080 --> 01:05:58,160
play it is you build Tucker and 
then you pick both sides of the 

1236
01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:02,280
Chiefs game and then you pick 
both sides of the of the Browns 

1237
01:06:02,280 --> 01:06:04,800
game. 
So you're like no matter who and

1238
01:06:04,800 --> 01:06:08,680
then you pick A, you pick Allen 
and you pick like Steelers D or 

1239
01:06:08,680 --> 01:06:12,360
something. 
But that way it's like I don't 

1240
01:06:12,360 --> 01:06:15,160
need to know who someone goes 
and beats the Ravens. 

1241
01:06:15,160 --> 01:06:18,600
I'm not sure who it is, not the 
Steelers, but it's someone else 

1242
01:06:19,040 --> 01:06:21,080
they. 
Can't play the Bills and they 

1243
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:23,840
can't play the Chiefs, which 
makes it a lot harder to 

1244
01:06:23,840 --> 01:06:25,480
envision them losing in their 
first game. 

1245
01:06:26,040 --> 01:06:29,360
It definitely does, yeah. 
But you you, you make sure you 

1246
01:06:29,360 --> 01:06:32,160
have a live Texan, a live brown 
and a live dolphin, and you hope

1247
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:38,200
one of those teams makes it. 
Yeah, yeah, I I mean, if all 

1248
01:06:38,200 --> 01:06:42,200
that stuff like is true and 
people are talking themselves 

1249
01:06:42,200 --> 01:06:45,880
into Baltimore, fades, soft 
fades, Josh Allen. 

1250
01:06:45,880 --> 01:06:49,480
I mean, Lamar Jackson, Is there 
a chance he comes in like under 

1251
01:06:49,640 --> 01:06:52,680
an efficient ownership if if all
of this talk is in play? 

1252
01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:56,040
What? 
What do you think efficient is? 

1253
01:06:57,960 --> 01:07:00,560
I I think I think it back close 
to where you have it. 

1254
01:07:01,560 --> 01:07:04,560
Like, I think you should be 
slightly over 50%, but just like

1255
01:07:04,560 --> 01:07:07,120
all this talk about like the 
field, like Gal braiding and not

1256
01:07:07,120 --> 01:07:10,400
wanting to deal with Lamar 
thinking they choke or whatever 

1257
01:07:10,720 --> 01:07:12,360
makes me want to be a little 
more overweight. 

1258
01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:16,080
I think the biggest thing on 
Lamar is the two game scenario. 

1259
01:07:16,080 --> 01:07:18,920
They do win in the first game 
but then they have to face 

1260
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:21,480
Kansas City or Buffalo or 
whoever in the AFC championship 

1261
01:07:21,480 --> 01:07:25,360
and they do lose that game. 
Is it Lamar as the optimal at 

1262
01:07:25,360 --> 01:07:26,720
that point? 
Probably not. 

1263
01:07:26,720 --> 01:07:29,040
It's only two games you didn't 
get the first game. 

1264
01:07:29,600 --> 01:07:33,960
So it is say flowers or somebody
right like and and they should 

1265
01:07:33,960 --> 01:07:36,520
be carrying some ownership. 
My immediate thought looking at 

1266
01:07:36,520 --> 01:07:39,240
this was Lamar was like Zay was 
high, likely was high. 

1267
01:07:39,240 --> 01:07:42,800
Those guys don't make sense. 
But the two game scenario, you 

1268
01:07:42,800 --> 01:07:44,960
gotta have some say. 
You gotta have some likely have 

1269
01:07:44,960 --> 01:07:46,360
some gusts, right? 
I mean that. 

1270
01:07:46,400 --> 01:07:50,680
I think that makes sense, yeah. 
Yeah, I I think I want to 

1271
01:07:50,720 --> 01:07:53,200
probably be overweight Lamar on 
this. 

1272
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:55,880
And we're doing this with Leoni,
so that might be a hard sell. 

1273
01:07:55,880 --> 01:07:59,560
But you know, like the Bills 
are, the Ravens are a pretty 

1274
01:07:59,560 --> 01:08:03,600
strong team, and you're you're 
probably fading a little bit of 

1275
01:08:03,600 --> 01:08:05,760
like the Boomer narrative of 
like Lamar doesn't win in the 

1276
01:08:05,760 --> 01:08:08,200
playoffs or whatever. 
Like, OK. 

1277
01:08:09,000 --> 01:08:10,400
Yeah. 
Fade that all day. 

1278
01:08:10,400 --> 01:08:12,280
I mean their their defense is 
fucking awesome. 

1279
01:08:12,600 --> 01:08:15,560
He's playing great. 
And The thing is is, like I say 

1280
01:08:15,560 --> 01:08:18,000
what more, even more so than 
Allen to the Bills? 

1281
01:08:18,000 --> 01:08:22,000
Like Lamar Jackson is, you know,
the center of the Ravens 

1282
01:08:22,000 --> 01:08:24,200
universe? 
Like even though the Zay Flowers

1283
01:08:24,200 --> 01:08:27,279
games where he's having a good 
game, Like, I mean, Lamar is 

1284
01:08:27,279 --> 01:08:29,240
having good even. 
Like the Gus Edwards stuff. 

1285
01:08:29,240 --> 01:08:31,040
I know he can vulture 
touchdowns, but it's because 

1286
01:08:31,040 --> 01:08:33,359
Lamar got them, you know, down 
to the rest. 

1287
01:08:33,359 --> 01:08:38,920
It's just hard for me to imagine
threading that needle where 

1288
01:08:38,920 --> 01:08:43,000
Lamar isn't the most dominant, 
you know, Ravens performer over 

1289
01:08:43,000 --> 01:08:45,640
more than one game. 
Yeah, and This is why Tucker 

1290
01:08:45,640 --> 01:08:50,760
will be played, because that 
thought process plus. 

1291
01:08:51,680 --> 01:08:55,720
I want to play Allen. 
Yeah, is going to lead to Tucker

1292
01:08:56,399 --> 01:08:58,600
is I cannot play Raven, that's 
not Lamar. 

1293
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:01,520
And yet, And I am playing Allen 
equals Tucker for a lot of 

1294
01:09:01,520 --> 01:09:03,200
people. 
All right. 

1295
01:09:03,200 --> 01:09:05,040
Let's transition over to Bill's 
because I think it's a good 

1296
01:09:05,040 --> 01:09:12,120
segue to go from the Lamar to 
the Josh Allen 55% here on 

1297
01:09:12,120 --> 01:09:16,560
Lamar, this is really 
interesting. 

1298
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:23,040
Diggs coming in ahead at 42%. 
He was in that Boomer opto, Josh

1299
01:09:23,040 --> 01:09:26,960
Allen 34, Cook 10, Dalton 
Kincaid 10 and then yeah, no one

1300
01:09:26,960 --> 01:09:32,319
else catching much here. 
What were your thoughts trying 

1301
01:09:32,319 --> 01:09:35,319
to sort this one out? 
So when you look at the Ravens 

1302
01:09:35,319 --> 01:09:39,120
one, I have the exact same 
feeling as Ben of Lamar's Too 

1303
01:09:39,120 --> 01:09:43,040
low, Flowers too high, Gusts too
high, Likely too high. 

1304
01:09:43,040 --> 01:09:46,240
And then you come over to the 
Bills and you go Allen Too low, 

1305
01:09:46,479 --> 01:09:48,840
Digs too high, Kincaid too high,
right. 

1306
01:09:48,840 --> 01:09:52,520
So it's like, how do you square 
this? 

1307
01:09:52,640 --> 01:09:55,680
Because everyone wants to play 
Allen and everyone wants to play

1308
01:09:55,680 --> 01:09:57,960
Lamar. 
But it's so much easier to talk 

1309
01:09:57,960 --> 01:10:01,320
yourself into digs of all the 
other piece of all the pieces 

1310
01:10:01,320 --> 01:10:04,240
that we have to play the outside
of the quarterback. 

1311
01:10:04,240 --> 01:10:08,600
The two comfy cliques from a 
player perspective are Diggs and

1312
01:10:08,600 --> 01:10:10,400
Justin Tucker. 
Those are the two guys who 

1313
01:10:10,400 --> 01:10:13,000
actually feel like I have a 
really good player at this 

1314
01:10:13,000 --> 01:10:14,400
position that's not the 
quarterback. 

1315
01:10:14,880 --> 01:10:21,080
And so I I ultimately think that
more people go Lamar Diggs than 

1316
01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:25,280
go like Josh Allen. 
Flowers, Yeah. 

1317
01:10:25,520 --> 01:10:29,000
I do agree that that 2V2 and 
that's why it ended up in the in

1318
01:10:29,000 --> 01:10:35,040
the Boomer opto there as well 
and I do think it's kind of a 

1319
01:10:35,040 --> 01:10:37,600
bummer to me. 
It's like Diggs hauls in that 

1320
01:10:37,640 --> 01:10:40,120
big TD and that Dolphins game. 
People are thinking more 

1321
01:10:40,120 --> 01:10:42,560
favorably about him. 
If James Cook didn't have a 

1322
01:10:42,560 --> 01:10:45,240
couple of those little duds 
after he was really picking up, 

1323
01:10:45,520 --> 01:10:49,560
people really start to say holy 
cow this is a horrible running 

1324
01:10:49,560 --> 01:10:51,080
back slate. 
Let me play James Cook. 

1325
01:10:51,080 --> 01:10:56,000
But I mean Dig or Allen just 
separates for people in a really

1326
01:10:56,000 --> 01:11:00,400
big way here to where man, I I, 
I am having a hard time squaring

1327
01:11:00,400 --> 01:11:02,760
that like you're saying. 
Because in a vacuum you would 

1328
01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:06,200
say Diggs put him in the Zay 
flowers range and put Allen in 

1329
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:08,040
the Lamar range. 
But the math. 

1330
01:11:08,040 --> 01:11:10,240
Doesn't work. 
I think the Gabe, the Gabe 

1331
01:11:10,320 --> 01:11:17,560
injury, the Gabe injury makes it
and and then Diggs, just being 

1332
01:11:17,560 --> 01:11:20,120
who he is as somebody who's 
obviously been. 

1333
01:11:20,200 --> 01:11:22,680
He hasn't had the great year 
this year, but he's had the long

1334
01:11:22,680 --> 01:11:26,960
career. 
I think just kind of pushes him 

1335
01:11:27,080 --> 01:11:28,520
up. 
It just has to right? 

1336
01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:33,520
The game injury especially, 
yeah, and and Liam pointed out 

1337
01:11:33,520 --> 01:11:36,000
in the chat that Gabe should be 
zero with the injury, which is 

1338
01:11:36,000 --> 01:11:39,400
correct and as a thank you, I 
gave that 1% to Dalton Kincaid. 

1339
01:11:42,440 --> 01:11:45,080
I like James Cook. 
I think he's a good play. 

1340
01:11:45,080 --> 01:11:49,480
He's a guy who can get yards. 
He's a guy who can be explosive.

1341
01:11:49,480 --> 01:11:52,120
He can score points. 
He can be their highest scoring 

1342
01:11:52,120 --> 01:11:55,520
player in a loss. 
I think he's an interesting 

1343
01:11:55,520 --> 01:11:57,080
running back pivot. 
He's one of my favorite pivots 

1344
01:11:57,080 --> 01:11:58,840
on the slate. 
I agree. 

1345
01:11:58,840 --> 01:12:04,600
Do you think this 10% is right? 
I mean, I floated that earlier 

1346
01:12:04,600 --> 01:12:07,040
and Leonie didn't love it and 
he's a bill, so I don't think, 

1347
01:12:07,040 --> 01:12:10,400
like everyone loves the idea of 
of pivoting to cook here. 

1348
01:12:10,400 --> 01:12:17,040
But I I mean, yeah, I I don't 
think it can go way higher than 

1349
01:12:17,040 --> 01:12:17,840
this. 
Is that what you mean? 

1350
01:12:19,000 --> 01:12:21,920
Yeah, I mean, I could see, like 
Diggs, Diggs has not been as 

1351
01:12:21,920 --> 01:12:23,440
fun. 
Like I could see it being more 

1352
01:12:23,440 --> 01:12:26,400
like 38 and 14, something like 
that. 

1353
01:12:27,720 --> 01:12:29,840
Yeah, maybe it's higher. 
The chat's saying it should be 

1354
01:12:29,840 --> 01:12:30,960
higher too. 
Maybe it is higher. 

1355
01:12:30,960 --> 01:12:33,280
I I'm probably colored by the 
fact that I want him to be low, 

1356
01:12:33,280 --> 01:12:34,720
but. 
But. 

1357
01:12:34,840 --> 01:12:38,880
Cook is, and Liam pointing out 
the running back scarcity is an 

1358
01:12:38,880 --> 01:12:42,680
issue, which we've noted it is. 
It's tough, man, because Cook's 

1359
01:12:42,680 --> 01:12:46,400
had that one big game, but he's 
been he doesn't get any goal 

1360
01:12:46,400 --> 01:12:48,720
line carries. 
Like, what's less comfy than 

1361
01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:53,560
that, right? 
True like I you're. 

1362
01:12:53,560 --> 01:12:56,360
Fading potentially 4 games from 
Allen and it's with a back who 

1363
01:12:56,360 --> 01:12:57,600
doesn't get any cares at the 
goal line. 

1364
01:12:57,600 --> 01:12:59,000
Like, I don't know, it's a 
little scary. 

1365
01:13:00,120 --> 01:13:05,080
I will say I will want to be 
underweight digs if if this 

1366
01:13:05,200 --> 01:13:11,520
number's correct. 
Man, I could. 

1367
01:13:14,080 --> 01:13:16,800
Does Allen come up? 
Does Allen come up? 

1368
01:13:18,440 --> 01:13:21,480
You say that Pete, and that's my
immediate thought too And then I

1369
01:13:21,480 --> 01:13:23,800
actually think about it and I'm 
like, I mean the most likely 

1370
01:13:23,800 --> 01:13:26,560
scenario for the Bills is their 
their ten point favourites this 

1371
01:13:26,560 --> 01:13:29,320
weekend if they win, but they 
don't actually go all the way to

1372
01:13:29,320 --> 01:13:32,640
the Super Bowl. 
There are a lot of scenarios 

1373
01:13:32,640 --> 01:13:36,800
where you get into the two and 
three-game outcomes where I mean

1374
01:13:36,800 --> 01:13:40,120
it probably is Diggs who had the
the one big game and and scored 

1375
01:13:40,120 --> 01:13:43,280
the most for their skill. 
Guys I I I want to be 

1376
01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:50,280
underweighted too, but. 
Yeah, the the again, the people 

1377
01:13:50,280 --> 01:13:51,880
you don't really like. 
You can't treat these in a 

1378
01:13:51,880 --> 01:13:54,400
vacuum. 
You have to go just massively 

1379
01:13:54,400 --> 01:13:58,400
change the Ravens stuff if 
you're going to massively alter.

1380
01:13:58,400 --> 01:14:03,480
The let's let's let's get, let's
get Allen to 40, OK and then 

1381
01:14:03,720 --> 01:14:05,760
we'll take, we'll take that 
directly from Diggs. 

1382
01:14:06,160 --> 01:14:09,960
So he goes to 32. 
Now you have Lauren Allen at 95 

1383
01:14:09,960 --> 01:14:11,160
combined. 
Well, now we. 

1384
01:14:11,400 --> 01:14:12,960
Well, the problem is that no 
one's gonna. 

1385
01:14:12,960 --> 01:14:16,040
I mean, we, you know, Sam 
Sherman's gonna enter 200 of 

1386
01:14:16,040 --> 01:14:17,560
these just to play 30. 
So we're gonna. 

1387
01:14:17,640 --> 01:14:22,400
So there's your 2%. 
But we're gonna have purdis in 

1388
01:14:22,400 --> 01:14:23,960
here. 
So you know you're gonna get 

1389
01:14:23,960 --> 01:14:25,200
some hurts, you're gonna get 
some Mahomes. 

1390
01:14:25,600 --> 01:14:30,280
So you know now we got oh, I 
need to on this sheet. 

1391
01:14:30,280 --> 01:14:32,680
I need to go to Baltimore. 
So let's go look at Baltimore 

1392
01:14:33,400 --> 01:14:37,520
because now we we have he needs 
to come down to 49. 

1393
01:14:37,920 --> 01:14:42,840
OK, so where does 6% go here? 
I, I think it's, I think it's 

1394
01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:44,960
Zay. 
I think it's like it's kind of 

1395
01:14:44,960 --> 01:14:50,520
like that pull of like I think 
the market like thinks just as 

1396
01:14:50,520 --> 01:14:54,480
good about Zay as they do about 
digs right now honestly. 

1397
01:14:54,960 --> 01:14:56,720
Yeah. 
Maybe there's 2% of it goes to 

1398
01:14:56,720 --> 01:14:58,480
likely. 
I think the majority goes to 

1399
01:14:58,480 --> 01:15:00,560
Zay. 
Likely's a bad play, though, 

1400
01:15:00,560 --> 01:15:02,880
because Andrews could come back.
Oh, that's right. 

1401
01:15:03,000 --> 01:15:04,000
Yeah, yeah, The playoffs. 
Yeah. 

1402
01:15:04,480 --> 01:15:05,560
Andrews Health. 
Health. 

1403
01:15:06,520 --> 01:15:09,360
Like I I I feel a little shaky 
about this being this high I. 

1404
01:15:10,680 --> 01:15:14,840
I But if you if you think about 
the logic of people who are just

1405
01:15:14,840 --> 01:15:18,760
wanting, like if you submit 2 
lineups like full fit like 

1406
01:15:18,800 --> 01:15:22,200
you're going to do, like if I 
just submitted 2 lineups, I 

1407
01:15:22,200 --> 01:15:27,800
would probably have a Alan Zay 
and a Lamar James Cook. 

1408
01:15:28,120 --> 01:15:30,840
Those would be my two if I had 
two entries. 

1409
01:15:32,240 --> 01:15:34,160
You'd have Alan Zay and Lamar 
James Cook. 

1410
01:15:34,680 --> 01:15:38,360
Interesting. 
Yeah, I I think I would too like

1411
01:15:38,360 --> 01:15:40,520
the exact same or else Lamar 
digs. 

1412
01:15:40,880 --> 01:15:43,040
But it would. 
You're saying James Cook has 

1413
01:15:43,040 --> 01:15:44,320
kind of a pivot, which makes 
sense. 

1414
01:15:44,760 --> 01:15:46,480
Yeah, I mean that's. 
My personal project, but I'm 

1415
01:15:46,480 --> 01:15:51,200
just saying like. 
But then the if you take if you.

1416
01:15:51,480 --> 01:15:54,240
Take it off. 
We know that he's bad all. 

1417
01:15:54,440 --> 01:15:56,040
Right. 
Sorry Liam, it's going, this is 

1418
01:15:56,040 --> 01:15:59,720
going to be. 
Bring it up to cook, yeah. 

1419
01:16:00,280 --> 01:16:05,160
That's fire. 
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 

1420
01:16:05,160 --> 01:16:06,720
So there you go. 
So now it digs it down. 

1421
01:16:07,520 --> 01:16:09,360
It's not bad. 
I just wanted to poke it. 

1422
01:16:09,400 --> 01:16:14,760
Leo, I'm sorry. 
No, he is that that looks that 

1423
01:16:14,760 --> 01:16:19,440
looks pretty good to me. 
I think we want to be 

1424
01:16:19,440 --> 01:16:21,960
overweight, Lamar. 
Man, this if this is the way 

1425
01:16:21,960 --> 01:16:23,800
people are. 
Gonna That was my take away, 

1426
01:16:23,800 --> 01:16:26,280
yeah. 
But now we've lowered the the 

1427
01:16:26,280 --> 01:16:30,600
ownership even more. 
I mean, something has to give. 

1428
01:16:30,840 --> 01:16:33,440
Something has to give either 
like every other quarterback's 

1429
01:16:33,440 --> 01:16:39,960
gonna be 1% or or people are 
gonna fall in love with. 

1430
01:16:39,960 --> 01:16:42,320
These are the little micro 
things that we talk about all 

1431
01:16:42,320 --> 01:16:45,440
week and we get more sentiment 
from other people's opinions and

1432
01:16:45,440 --> 01:16:47,840
and we'll land somewhere. 
It could go a couple different 

1433
01:16:47,840 --> 01:16:48,800
ways. 
This is obvious. 

1434
01:16:48,800 --> 01:16:50,360
There's some, there's some 
volatility here. 

1435
01:16:50,360 --> 01:16:53,280
It depends, yeah, but all. 
Right. 

1436
01:16:53,280 --> 01:16:56,520
Let's do, let's do Steelers. 
This can be a quick one, like 

1437
01:16:56,520 --> 01:16:59,040
yeah. 
Probably 95% fade. 

1438
01:17:00,480 --> 01:17:06,000
I have a close to that 'cause I 
mean I'm plus the D. 

1439
01:17:06,480 --> 01:17:08,840
Which makes their defense if it 
is. 

1440
01:17:09,040 --> 01:17:12,320
Closer. 
Yeah, I think the D is a pretty 

1441
01:17:12,320 --> 01:17:14,760
good play. 
Yeah. 

1442
01:17:15,240 --> 01:17:21,360
Hard to imagine even using the 
kicker outdoor, that team total.

1443
01:17:21,360 --> 01:17:24,120
No one's going to want to use 
the running backs. 

1444
01:17:24,440 --> 01:17:27,680
They're playing basin rough. 
I'm usually like really game to 

1445
01:17:27,720 --> 01:17:33,520
play you know anybody in these 
fade spots because you but like 

1446
01:17:33,520 --> 01:17:35,160
this is such a hard one to look 
at. 

1447
01:17:35,160 --> 01:17:38,240
I I who would you play like? 
It's Pickens. 

1448
01:17:38,240 --> 01:17:39,960
But God, I don't feel good about
that. 

1449
01:17:41,080 --> 01:17:43,760
It's just I was in. 
Whether in this team total man 

1450
01:17:43,840 --> 01:17:47,520
it is, it is bad. 
I love that Liam's like 

1451
01:17:47,520 --> 01:17:49,760
Pittsburgh D Who on earth would 
play them? 

1452
01:17:51,320 --> 01:17:53,600
It's Josh Allen's a walking 
turnover. 

1453
01:17:55,200 --> 01:17:58,040
I mean, that was the play last 
year too, was the Dolphins D. 

1454
01:17:58,160 --> 01:18:00,440
The Dolphins was the right play.
Smashed, yeah. 

1455
01:18:00,440 --> 01:18:02,920
In a loss, Smashed, yeah. 
In a In a game where they 

1456
01:18:02,920 --> 01:18:06,160
started Skylar Thompson, they 
absolutely smashed. 

1457
01:18:06,800 --> 01:18:09,960
Yep. 
So Liam's saying TJ Watt, No 

1458
01:18:09,960 --> 01:18:10,560
way. 
The Boomers play. 

1459
01:18:10,560 --> 01:18:13,520
I've already heard. 
Yeah, I've already heard the the

1460
01:18:13,520 --> 01:18:17,280
Steelers detouted. 
So I I don't know I'm maybe 

1461
01:18:17,280 --> 01:18:19,600
maybe but it's just going to the
fade. 

1462
01:18:19,600 --> 01:18:23,080
I mean it's work that could be a
good take that the I have the 

1463
01:18:23,080 --> 01:18:26,720
Steelers D too high but it's 
just going to go to the fade 

1464
01:18:26,720 --> 01:18:28,920
it's. 
Not the reason why people like 

1465
01:18:28,960 --> 01:18:31,880
if you're in DFS like I. 
So I have just the single game 

1466
01:18:31,880 --> 01:18:33,960
DST projections up from ETR. 
Right now. 

1467
01:18:33,960 --> 01:18:37,000
The Bills have the highest 
projection on the slate of 8.64.

1468
01:18:37,320 --> 01:18:39,120
The Steelers aren't even the 
lowest, they're the fourth 

1469
01:18:39,120 --> 01:18:42,800
lowest at 5.63. 
There's a three-point gap in 

1470
01:18:42,800 --> 01:18:46,440
defensive projection for the 
most volatile and random fantasy

1471
01:18:46,440 --> 01:18:49,800
scoring thing we have. 
Like, you can't just now wave 

1472
01:18:49,800 --> 01:18:52,360
any defense. 
Like, I mean, like literally any

1473
01:18:52,360 --> 01:18:55,240
defense is in play in this 
contest. 

1474
01:18:56,040 --> 01:19:00,200
But I do like Liam's point about
TJ Watt being out and I I kind 

1475
01:19:00,200 --> 01:19:03,800
of feel like the the Pittsburgh 
Full Fade's gonna come in over 

1476
01:19:03,800 --> 01:19:06,360
the 67%. 
Number I do agree with that the 

1477
01:19:06,360 --> 01:19:09,120
fade will be will be higher on 
that sentiment. 

1478
01:19:09,120 --> 01:19:12,200
Is there a defense that jumps 
out to you is, is that, you 

1479
01:19:12,200 --> 01:19:15,920
know, going somewhere 'cause 
that's like, are you playing, 

1480
01:19:18,160 --> 01:19:21,800
are you playing Packers D, are 
you playing box D? 

1481
01:19:21,800 --> 01:19:23,200
We haven't. 
We haven't got to Brown's 

1482
01:19:23,200 --> 01:19:25,880
Texans, but I think that's a 
that's a good defense game, 

1483
01:19:25,920 --> 01:19:26,800
right? 
People don't. 

1484
01:19:28,920 --> 01:19:31,560
The Browns have a good D and 
then people don't. 

1485
01:19:31,600 --> 01:19:33,840
You know you. 
You're going against Joe Flacco?

1486
01:19:34,280 --> 01:19:37,320
The other one I could see, I'm, 
I called it the kicker game, but

1487
01:19:37,320 --> 01:19:40,160
if people don't know what to do 
with the Eagles, I could see 

1488
01:19:40,160 --> 01:19:42,720
Eagles D against Baker being a 
little. 

1489
01:19:44,320 --> 01:19:46,360
Yeah, that's a good one. 
Let me see if I can. 

1490
01:19:46,360 --> 01:19:48,840
Because it's hard to find other 
ones to pull away from. 

1491
01:19:50,000 --> 01:19:52,400
Yeah, it's true. 
Yeah, I could take this the 

1492
01:19:52,400 --> 01:19:55,960
Eagles down to two and give them
some some more D. 

1493
01:19:56,720 --> 01:19:59,760
And The thing is is like, it's 
like all these narratives. 

1494
01:19:59,760 --> 01:20:01,720
Like they can't all just be 
true. 

1495
01:20:01,720 --> 01:20:04,280
Like you can't say Browns demega
Chalk, but then everyone wants 

1496
01:20:04,280 --> 01:20:07,560
to play the Ravens losing and 
the Browns going in and beating 

1497
01:20:07,560 --> 01:20:09,280
them. 
Like if you're playing the 

1498
01:20:09,280 --> 01:20:13,000
Browns as a win, then you're 
playing a skill position player 

1499
01:20:13,000 --> 01:20:16,080
like. 
Yeah. 

1500
01:20:16,440 --> 01:20:19,160
See, I don't think there's going
to be mega chalk on defense. 

1501
01:20:19,160 --> 01:20:20,240
I think you'll see a lot of 
spread. 

1502
01:20:20,240 --> 01:20:21,320
Out. 
Well, The funny thing is I have 

1503
01:20:21,320 --> 01:20:24,440
that as the Browns. 
I have the Browns as very chalky

1504
01:20:24,920 --> 01:20:28,760
at deep, so I'm at 32 and 
actually I'm going to raise them

1505
01:20:28,760 --> 01:20:33,360
at 33 right now. 
So I've got that. 

1506
01:20:33,800 --> 01:20:37,040
It's just that, you know, people
want to play Amari and people 

1507
01:20:37,040 --> 01:20:39,680
want to play in joke. 
I'm curious where you have the 

1508
01:20:40,080 --> 01:20:42,640
dolphins D because are are 
enough people going to talk 

1509
01:20:42,640 --> 01:20:44,800
about the weather in Mahomes 
hasn't been great. 

1510
01:20:44,800 --> 01:20:48,120
And does do the Dolphins get 
soft faded through their D? 

1511
01:20:49,280 --> 01:20:51,560
That's a good one. 
I have Sanders hire. 

1512
01:20:51,560 --> 01:20:54,040
We'll get there soon, but we 
have. 

1513
01:20:54,040 --> 01:20:57,160
Yeah, maybe that's a good one to
just get a little percent there.

1514
01:21:00,040 --> 01:21:02,320
That would be another. 
One, looking at the projections,

1515
01:21:02,320 --> 01:21:05,000
and I don't think the market 
will get there, but Texans have 

1516
01:21:05,000 --> 01:21:07,960
the third best projection for 
defense on this slate. 

1517
01:21:07,960 --> 01:21:09,080
So. 
As a underdog? 

1518
01:21:09,320 --> 01:21:10,000
Yeah. 
Wow. 

1519
01:21:10,720 --> 01:21:12,600
That's a home, home versus 
Flacco. 

1520
01:21:12,600 --> 01:21:14,720
So I can see people maybe 
talking themselves into that a 

1521
01:21:14,720 --> 01:21:16,480
bit. 
Yeah, Brown's Texans is the 

1522
01:21:16,480 --> 01:21:18,520
defense game. 
The defense game, yeah. 

1523
01:21:18,840 --> 01:21:20,200
Yeah. 
Ray called. 

1524
01:21:20,240 --> 01:21:21,680
Yeah, that's that's where it 
comes from. 

1525
01:21:23,280 --> 01:21:27,120
Yeah, I could see maybe having 
that wrong, where it's actually 

1526
01:21:27,200 --> 01:21:32,400
the people play the Texans D and
don't fade them much. 

1527
01:21:32,560 --> 01:21:34,040
So maybe, maybe I'll just do 
that. 

1528
01:21:37,200 --> 01:21:38,680
Let's see. 
Yeah. 

1529
01:21:39,200 --> 01:21:40,560
So what if I take the Steelers 
down? 

1530
01:21:40,560 --> 01:21:43,920
I might take the Steelers down a
lot and go to like 10% without 

1531
01:21:43,920 --> 01:21:45,360
JJ Watt. 
And that's good. 

1532
01:21:45,360 --> 01:21:48,400
I mean, I will. 
I want to be way overweight. 

1533
01:21:49,080 --> 01:21:52,920
Uh stage D yeah that's that's 
the biggest mistake people make 

1534
01:21:53,400 --> 01:21:56,040
in this and we've made it in the
past two is you just you just 

1535
01:21:56,040 --> 01:21:58,640
randomize your defenses. 
We know nothing. 

1536
01:21:58,760 --> 01:22:01,480
It it doesn't even matter if you
project the right winner like 

1537
01:22:01,480 --> 01:22:04,920
you. 
Miami Miami was this team last 

1538
01:22:04,920 --> 01:22:06,760
year where their full fade was 
incredibly high. 

1539
01:22:06,760 --> 01:22:09,160
They were starting Skylar 
Thompson in the road. 

1540
01:22:09,680 --> 01:22:13,160
They're on the road in Buffalo 
and there was no chance they 

1541
01:22:13,160 --> 01:22:15,120
were going to be able to win. 
They actually competed a little 

1542
01:22:15,120 --> 01:22:16,360
bit, scored a defensive 
touchdown. 

1543
01:22:16,360 --> 01:22:18,760
Their kicker was also a smash 
play. 

1544
01:22:18,760 --> 01:22:21,280
He made three field goals. 
I'm looking at it right now, 

1545
01:22:23,160 --> 01:22:28,040
They they were the best defense 
and kicker play by like a long 

1546
01:22:28,040 --> 01:22:29,560
shot. 
And because then when people did

1547
01:22:29,560 --> 01:22:31,960
want to play Miami, they wanted 
to play Tyreke and everything. 

1548
01:22:32,560 --> 01:22:36,600
But it was like you just be 
willing to play the kicker in 

1549
01:22:36,600 --> 01:22:38,600
DST. 
You don't want to play because 

1550
01:22:38,600 --> 01:22:41,320
if you get that off, if you hit 
it, if you get that right, like 

1551
01:22:41,320 --> 01:22:44,440
it can be a massive win. 
Especially Pittsburgh's going to

1552
01:22:44,440 --> 01:22:46,680
lose, right? 
Like yeah, you should. 

1553
01:22:47,160 --> 01:22:49,640
You'd be willing to mix in their
kickers and their DS cause like 

1554
01:22:49,640 --> 01:22:52,720
that. 
It's the one, the one and dumb 

1555
01:22:52,720 --> 01:22:54,920
element. 
Yeah, Mike Tomlin will have no 

1556
01:22:54,920 --> 01:22:57,920
no problem dialing up some field
goals like down fourteen in the 

1557
01:22:57,920 --> 01:23:01,320
third quarter, right? 
In the wind, yeah, the kicker 

1558
01:23:01,320 --> 01:23:04,080
element is a little bit tricky, 
with the wind, really bad. 

1559
01:23:05,720 --> 01:23:07,720
Everything. 
Let's let's go to Brown's Texan 

1560
01:23:07,720 --> 01:23:11,080
since we were kind of Segwaying 
to that as it pertains to 

1561
01:23:11,760 --> 01:23:14,560
defense. 
Browns are are definitely, I 

1562
01:23:14,560 --> 01:23:18,880
think one of the trickier ones 
for sure, because like you said,

1563
01:23:18,880 --> 01:23:23,640
the most logical place for it is
this ownership and defense. 

1564
01:23:23,640 --> 01:23:25,200
It does feel like the defensive 
game. 

1565
01:23:25,200 --> 01:23:28,760
And except, you know, Amari just
dropped fucking 50 on this same 

1566
01:23:28,760 --> 01:23:32,120
defense a couple weeks ago. 
David Najoku has been a tight 

1567
01:23:32,120 --> 01:23:35,880
end premium monster on a slate 
where we are starved for good 

1568
01:23:35,880 --> 01:23:39,120
tight ends. 
So I do think those two, how you

1569
01:23:39,120 --> 01:23:41,760
have it, there's going to be a 
lot of pull here. 

1570
01:23:41,920 --> 01:23:46,760
Ultimately, I wonder, does the 
Cooper Najoku, do you just shrug

1571
01:23:46,760 --> 01:23:48,760
your shoulder, play the 
Cleveland defense? 

1572
01:23:48,760 --> 01:23:51,240
Like, is that what the field 
ends up doing? 

1573
01:23:53,400 --> 01:23:56,840
This is a really interesting 
projection where you just have 

1574
01:23:56,840 --> 01:24:00,000
it like 1/3, a third, a third. 
And I mean, I guess that makes 

1575
01:24:00,000 --> 01:24:03,760
sense like. 
I know sometimes there there's 

1576
01:24:03,760 --> 01:24:06,080
been a couple calls in the in 
the chat for me to basically do 

1577
01:24:06,080 --> 01:24:11,280
that on stuff and he this is one
of the cases where I did this is

1578
01:24:11,360 --> 01:24:14,320
the where you can just go you 
know there's people are going to

1579
01:24:14,320 --> 01:24:16,880
split it three ways. 
None of these paths are sneaky. 

1580
01:24:18,240 --> 01:24:21,560
I think the more I think about 
it, I think people are going to 

1581
01:24:21,560 --> 01:24:25,800
feel more comfortable with Amari
just given a massive ceiling 

1582
01:24:26,120 --> 01:24:30,800
that he showed, you know, in 
week 16 and feeling like you 

1583
01:24:30,800 --> 01:24:34,080
need to capture those types of 
weeks in this tournament, like 

1584
01:24:34,080 --> 01:24:38,040
what can't you catch up from? 
And Amari delivered one of 

1585
01:24:38,040 --> 01:24:39,520
those. 
It's like you either have it in 

1586
01:24:39,760 --> 01:24:42,040
your in your life to win or you 
don't and you're not. 

1587
01:24:43,080 --> 01:24:45,680
And Joku's a nice, comfortable 
tight end play, but I think 

1588
01:24:45,680 --> 01:24:48,920
Kelsey will get enough ownership
that people aren't going to feel

1589
01:24:48,920 --> 01:24:52,640
like they need in Joku. 
And so if you're going to play a

1590
01:24:52,640 --> 01:24:56,200
Brown, I think more people end 
up playing Cooper than a joke. 

1591
01:24:56,200 --> 01:24:59,440
And I could even see the split 
going more to Cooper than I have

1592
01:24:59,440 --> 01:25:04,680
it. 
Yeah, Yep. 

1593
01:25:05,680 --> 01:25:07,800
And yeah, Cooper was a little 
banged up. 

1594
01:25:07,800 --> 01:25:10,160
I think he practiced in full 
today, so there shouldn't be any

1595
01:25:10,160 --> 01:25:11,800
lingering. 
He's basically good to go. 

1596
01:25:12,080 --> 01:25:16,280
Yeah, he's good to go. 
Yeah, I do think these three 

1597
01:25:16,280 --> 01:25:20,600
separate in a way that your 
ownership is very correct on 

1598
01:25:20,600 --> 01:25:22,960
like. 
It's if one of yeah, I agree 

1599
01:25:22,960 --> 01:25:25,160
with that. 
If one of them came in light, 

1600
01:25:25,160 --> 01:25:28,200
like let's just play a 
hypothetical game. 

1601
01:25:28,200 --> 01:25:31,040
I'm trying to think if one of 
them came in 10 percentage 

1602
01:25:31,040 --> 01:25:32,840
points under the rest of them, 
who is it? 

1603
01:25:32,840 --> 01:25:36,480
And I I I can't answer that. 
I don't know either. 

1604
01:25:37,080 --> 01:25:38,920
I was hoping you. 
I was hoping you were gonna tell

1605
01:25:38,920 --> 01:25:42,560
me. 
I'm the one who projected these 

1606
01:25:42,560 --> 01:25:45,120
numbers. 
I was excited. 

1607
01:25:45,200 --> 01:25:47,240
I was. 
I had a ton of anticipation 

1608
01:25:47,240 --> 01:25:47,800
there. 
Whoa, that's. 

1609
01:25:48,680 --> 01:25:51,040
Good enough? 
Yup. 

1610
01:25:53,280 --> 01:25:57,240
Yeah, it it's hard too, because 
then you don't get a clean 

1611
01:25:57,640 --> 01:26:00,760
leverage angle here. 
I guess my only thing would be 

1612
01:26:00,760 --> 01:26:04,440
I'd like maybe want to be more 
overweight Cooper and Najoku and

1613
01:26:04,440 --> 01:26:08,200
and underweight Cleveland. 
DST maybe. 

1614
01:26:08,200 --> 01:26:13,040
Maybe you do some more 
underweight like like a hard 

1615
01:26:13,040 --> 01:26:15,480
fade kind of. 
Or overweight, a hard fade, if 

1616
01:26:15,480 --> 01:26:21,720
the field's not doing that but 
did. 

1617
01:26:21,720 --> 01:26:24,560
The Cleveland DST is the only 
thing that jumps out to me as a 

1618
01:26:24,680 --> 01:26:28,080
as a big fade at that percent. 
Oh, Hopkins is hurt. 

1619
01:26:28,480 --> 01:26:31,280
So getting some kicker. 
Chasing the The chat is chasing 

1620
01:26:31,360 --> 01:26:33,200
some chasing kickers. 
Let's do it. 

1621
01:26:34,360 --> 01:26:37,600
So what's? 
All right? 

1622
01:26:37,600 --> 01:26:45,560
I don't know who this I don't 
know who their kicker's going to

1623
01:26:45,560 --> 01:26:46,240
be. 
We'll stick around. 

1624
01:26:46,400 --> 01:26:48,440
It's Riley Patterson, they're 
saying in the chat. 

1625
01:26:48,880 --> 01:26:58,440
OK, all right. 
Maybe 1%. 

1626
01:26:58,440 --> 01:26:59,360
I don't know. 
Oh yeah. 

1627
01:26:59,360 --> 01:27:05,920
But yeah, this one's, this one's
tough. 

1628
01:27:05,920 --> 01:27:08,080
I don't know. 
These bull. 

1629
01:27:08,080 --> 01:27:09,880
And Joku comes over Kelsey. 
Liam says. 

1630
01:27:10,080 --> 01:27:13,000
I don't think so. 
Just because I think the. 

1631
01:27:13,960 --> 01:27:16,640
I think the Chiefs are going to 
boil down to Kelsey and Pacheco.

1632
01:27:17,320 --> 01:27:19,600
And here you've got 2 like, I 
don't I? 

1633
01:27:19,960 --> 01:27:21,760
In order for that to happen, I 
think in Joku has to be the most

1634
01:27:21,760 --> 01:27:23,360
popular Brown. 
I don't think he will be. 

1635
01:27:24,280 --> 01:27:27,720
Yeah, those notes about Amari's 
huge game coming in Houston were

1636
01:27:27,720 --> 01:27:30,760
not something I had thought of 
yet, and it makes a lot of like 

1637
01:27:30,760 --> 01:27:35,120
I was thinking in Joku 
initially, but Amari just had a 

1638
01:27:35,120 --> 01:27:39,360
monster game, yeah. 
I I could see these being one 

1639
01:27:39,360 --> 01:27:42,160
where we flip over the cards and
we're kind of like, oh whoa, 

1640
01:27:42,160 --> 01:27:45,760
like the field all did Najoku or
like they all did a like I I 

1641
01:27:45,760 --> 01:27:47,440
could see this one being really.
Hard. 

1642
01:27:47,440 --> 01:27:50,520
I think it's more likely to be 
the field all did Amari. 

1643
01:27:51,160 --> 01:27:54,160
Yeah. 
I might raise Amari. 

1644
01:27:54,160 --> 01:28:00,560
Yeah, I might go 38 and 25 my. 
Initial gut was Njoku 'cause, 

1645
01:28:00,640 --> 01:28:02,080
you know, famously Titan 
Premium. 

1646
01:28:03,920 --> 01:28:06,000
Yeah. 
It is Titan Premium. 

1647
01:28:06,440 --> 01:28:09,720
And then Joku people have been 
like, flackles unlocked in Joku.

1648
01:28:09,720 --> 01:28:12,160
Like every week he's getting 15 
targets. 

1649
01:28:12,160 --> 01:28:15,560
He's so sick. 
Like, I mean, that's what I'm 

1650
01:28:15,680 --> 01:28:17,560
hearing at least. 
Yeah. 

1651
01:28:18,040 --> 01:28:19,640
Here's Here's one thing I'll 
say. 

1652
01:28:19,640 --> 01:28:24,760
So I've got tight end ownership 
at 1.1, and I don't think that 

1653
01:28:24,760 --> 01:28:27,800
people are aggressive about 
playing tight end this year. 

1654
01:28:28,800 --> 01:28:33,960
It was 1.37 last year. 
Two years ago we actually had a 

1655
01:28:33,960 --> 01:28:41,200
good group, it was 1.81, but in 
2020, where do I have it? 

1656
01:28:41,200 --> 01:28:46,600
In 2020 it was at 1.25. 
So this would be the lowest that

1657
01:28:46,600 --> 01:28:51,240
we've had in a while. 
But it's a really weak group and

1658
01:28:51,240 --> 01:28:53,440
so I think people are going to 
figure out who their tight end 

1659
01:28:53,440 --> 01:28:56,000
is and they're not really going 
to play tight end in the flex 

1660
01:28:56,000 --> 01:29:00,320
very often, which will keep, I 
think, in in Joku in check 

1661
01:29:00,320 --> 01:29:02,320
because Kelsey's not going to 
get lost. 

1662
01:29:03,120 --> 01:29:05,480
Yep. 
But I also think it boosts and 

1663
01:29:05,480 --> 01:29:07,680
joker up a little bit because 
when you're figuring out who 

1664
01:29:07,680 --> 01:29:10,400
your tight end is, it kind of is
a tier of two. 

1665
01:29:10,920 --> 01:29:13,680
Like, who else is with those 
guys? 

1666
01:29:13,680 --> 01:29:17,720
Kittle's not because of CMC. 
Ferguson's not. 

1667
01:29:17,720 --> 01:29:20,480
Laporte's hurt, you know. 
I mean I don't know where 

1668
01:29:20,600 --> 01:29:24,480
Goddard, but like there's you 
guys just made a great point 

1669
01:29:24,480 --> 01:29:26,480
about Andrews coming back and 
hurting likely. 

1670
01:29:26,480 --> 01:29:28,160
I can't even find it on the 
tight end. 

1671
01:29:28,160 --> 01:29:32,520
I want to play. 
And Joku has been a He's the 

1672
01:29:33,160 --> 01:29:36,040
Jayden Reed of this team where 
he just helped people win 

1673
01:29:36,040 --> 01:29:38,960
titles, right? 
And he's been really good down 

1674
01:29:38,960 --> 01:29:41,960
the stretch and people are like.
But Amari did too. 

1675
01:29:42,200 --> 01:29:44,720
I mean, Amari. 
Amari was on the winning BBM 

1676
01:29:44,720 --> 01:29:47,320
team even though he didn't play 
in Week 17. 

1677
01:29:47,560 --> 01:29:50,240
I mean that's the kind of Week 
16 Amari had. 

1678
01:29:50,640 --> 01:29:53,960
So I think people overvalue 
consistency. 

1679
01:29:53,960 --> 01:29:57,280
Amari had the monster game, he 
didn't have a good game the week

1680
01:29:57,280 --> 01:30:00,080
prior and Joku's been so 
consistent. 

1681
01:30:00,080 --> 01:30:02,520
And I I just think people like 
that, you know? 

1682
01:30:02,640 --> 01:30:05,160
Yeah, I think what, you know, 
what we're arriving at is just 

1683
01:30:05,160 --> 01:30:09,720
there's you can make good 
arguments for all like the DST 

1684
01:30:09,720 --> 01:30:13,120
feels like just the the game 
that you want to get that done 

1685
01:30:13,120 --> 01:30:15,760
with. 
And yet Najoku and Cooper are 

1686
01:30:15,760 --> 01:30:20,360
both like great plays in almost 
either scenario, like a loss or 

1687
01:30:20,360 --> 01:30:22,000
or a win. 
Like if they get in a shootout 

1688
01:30:22,000 --> 01:30:25,640
loss with the Texans. 
I mean, either Amari or Najoku 

1689
01:30:25,640 --> 01:30:30,640
could just go absolutely Ham, 
yeah. 

1690
01:30:30,800 --> 01:30:32,200
I I think people like the 
Browns. 

1691
01:30:32,200 --> 01:30:34,560
I think you're going to see 
Amari and a joke. 

1692
01:30:34,560 --> 01:30:38,520
I mean, when we were talking the
we're talking the Lamar stuff 

1693
01:30:39,320 --> 01:30:43,880
and the Justin Tucker, you know,
kind of kind of a path there of 

1694
01:30:43,880 --> 01:30:45,680
how you fade. 
Lamar, you just play Justin 

1695
01:30:45,680 --> 01:30:47,600
Tucker. 
Who can beat them? 

1696
01:30:47,600 --> 01:30:50,560
Who can beat them. 
The chat was literally just the 

1697
01:30:50,560 --> 01:30:52,080
Browns, the Browns, the Browns, 
the Browns. 

1698
01:30:52,360 --> 01:30:59,360
So I think Amari or in Joku plus
Tucker will be a pretty common 

1699
01:30:59,360 --> 01:31:01,000
combo. 
Yep. 

1700
01:31:01,240 --> 01:31:03,280
Interesting. 
All right, let's talk some 

1701
01:31:03,280 --> 01:31:07,320
Texans here. 
In this same game last night, 

1702
01:31:07,840 --> 01:31:09,960
Nikko ended up in the Boomer 
opto. 

1703
01:31:10,440 --> 01:31:13,280
I wasn't so sure about that. 
Partly because of this Najoku 

1704
01:31:13,280 --> 01:31:14,840
Amari stuff we've been 
discussing. 

1705
01:31:15,160 --> 01:31:19,360
Do have him as the highest 
projected Texan. 

1706
01:31:19,360 --> 01:31:23,000
The more we kind of talk this 
through here, him at 46%. 

1707
01:31:23,520 --> 01:31:27,680
I do really wonder if the 
Houston DST and fade come up and

1708
01:31:27,680 --> 01:31:30,400
Nikko comes down pretty 
significantly because of the 

1709
01:31:30,400 --> 01:31:36,920
Amari Najoku stuff. 
So who are people not fading 

1710
01:31:36,920 --> 01:31:38,680
then? 
The box. 

1711
01:31:40,560 --> 01:31:47,400
Yeah, with all the banged up 
stuff with the Eagles, I I'm 

1712
01:31:47,400 --> 01:31:49,880
just trying to talk it through. 
It's mainly the Nikko number. 

1713
01:31:49,880 --> 01:31:56,160
Just seems high to me. 
But with no G tank I it doesn't.

1714
01:31:56,200 --> 01:31:59,160
It's scared to the Browns D like
I hear all the time. 

1715
01:31:59,400 --> 01:32:02,680
But there's no one else you 
would play from the Texans right

1716
01:32:02,680 --> 01:32:04,840
there there, and he doesn't have
them. 

1717
01:32:05,240 --> 01:32:06,720
Plus playing. 
Anyone else? 

1718
01:32:07,000 --> 01:32:10,200
I would like a little Schultz in
our portfolio, but I agree no 

1719
01:32:10,200 --> 01:32:14,160
one else from is going to is 
going to get played let. 

1720
01:32:14,640 --> 01:32:17,000
Me see if I can go make this 
work with Tampa Bay, like I 

1721
01:32:17,000 --> 01:32:21,520
could take Tampa Bay D down 
Well, they're already pretty 

1722
01:32:21,520 --> 01:32:25,520
low. 
You could tell me I'm wrong on 

1723
01:32:25,520 --> 01:32:26,880
this. 
I'm I'm just thinking like 

1724
01:32:27,200 --> 01:32:29,480
Collins of all the spots when 
you're making these tough 

1725
01:32:29,480 --> 01:32:32,560
decisions and if you're telling 
me I have to decide between like

1726
01:32:32,960 --> 01:32:38,160
Browns DST or Amaria Najoku or 
like Nico in Houston DST fade. 

1727
01:32:38,160 --> 01:32:43,000
Like I want to be on the Brown 
skill position like Houston DST 

1728
01:32:43,000 --> 01:32:48,160
fade side. 
No, I think you're right. 

1729
01:32:48,160 --> 01:32:50,640
Like, I don't think it does feel
high to me too. 

1730
01:32:50,680 --> 01:32:52,280
It feels high to have Nico that 
high. 

1731
01:32:52,280 --> 01:32:56,000
No one wants to play that much, 
Nico, but. 

1732
01:32:56,000 --> 01:32:58,200
He's the obvious play. 
It doesn't feel as high to me, 

1733
01:32:59,000 --> 01:33:02,120
OK personally. 
Does this feel because it was 

1734
01:33:02,120 --> 01:33:03,640
higher than this? 
Does this feel high or? 

1735
01:33:03,960 --> 01:33:07,360
I I hear Pete's point because 
the Browns have been just so 

1736
01:33:07,360 --> 01:33:09,960
fantastic for skill production 
since Flacco took over. 

1737
01:33:09,960 --> 01:33:13,400
But I feel like the market does 
still feel that way about CJ 

1738
01:33:13,400 --> 01:33:16,160
Stroud and the Texans. 
I know the Browns D scary. 

1739
01:33:16,160 --> 01:33:22,200
But I I mean, I think of a 
Texans as a fun one to jam a 

1740
01:33:22,200 --> 01:33:25,360
player in in this contest. 
And then I'm like, well, have to

1741
01:33:25,360 --> 01:33:26,920
play Nico. 
Like there's. 

1742
01:33:26,920 --> 01:33:28,080
I mean, I'm not playing Noah 
Brown. 

1743
01:33:28,080 --> 01:33:30,160
I'm not playing Dalton Schultz. 
I'm not playing Devin Singletary

1744
01:33:30,160 --> 01:33:34,360
like it's Nico. 
I'm not saying I want to be that

1745
01:33:34,360 --> 01:33:39,160
high, but I can see that I don't
think that number is crazy. 40 

1746
01:33:39,680 --> 01:33:42,240
or 46. 
This range doesn't seem crazy to

1747
01:33:42,240 --> 01:33:44,800
me. 
Yeah. 

1748
01:33:44,920 --> 01:33:48,640
No, I think it's tough. 
It's actually tough to get it 

1749
01:33:48,640 --> 01:33:53,320
below 40, because how what 
percentage of the field fades 

1750
01:33:53,760 --> 01:33:57,880
the Texans, who are not like an 
obvious, obvious fate? 

1751
01:33:57,880 --> 01:33:59,000
It's the. 
Closest spread. 

1752
01:33:59,000 --> 01:34:01,480
It's the only spread inside 
three points right now. 

1753
01:34:01,560 --> 01:34:03,880
I mean, that's the other part. 
People like to play both sides 

1754
01:34:03,880 --> 01:34:07,360
of the close games. 
Yeah, Butts Eagles is -3 two. 

1755
01:34:08,240 --> 01:34:11,400
Yeah, inside of it. 
Like inside of the three points,

1756
01:34:12,240 --> 01:34:16,120
it's 2 1/2 in in. 
So I run. 

1757
01:34:16,160 --> 01:34:19,320
I went around and tried to find 
I'm I'm gonna bump him to 43 and

1758
01:34:19,320 --> 01:34:25,720
take this down to 25 or no. 
They down to 13 I think is added

1759
01:34:25,720 --> 01:34:27,880
to it. 
It's interesting. 

1760
01:34:27,880 --> 01:34:30,400
I might be wrong on this too. 
I'm I'm just sharing my my 

1761
01:34:30,400 --> 01:34:33,160
opinion on it. 
It feels a little bit different 

1762
01:34:33,160 --> 01:34:36,120
than Pete's, but like he said, 
like he he might be wrong. 

1763
01:34:36,800 --> 01:34:40,800
This is a tricky one for sure. 
I don't, I don't feel confident 

1764
01:34:40,920 --> 01:34:43,600
at all. 
But I can see why you landed on 

1765
01:34:43,600 --> 01:34:45,160
that number. 
When I try to think of like, 

1766
01:34:45,160 --> 01:34:47,760
where else it goes, 'cause you 
have a high fade percent for a 

1767
01:34:47,760 --> 01:34:52,480
team that's home 2 1/2 point 
dogs. 

1768
01:34:54,080 --> 01:34:56,320
I mean, I guess I'm not that 
confident the Texans are going 

1769
01:34:56,320 --> 01:34:59,920
to lose. 
It's just how do you? 

1770
01:35:01,080 --> 01:35:05,160
It's like Nico. 
I think, honestly, I think what 

1771
01:35:05,160 --> 01:35:10,000
it is, man, is that I think 
people want to play a Brown more

1772
01:35:10,000 --> 01:35:11,600
than they. 
So they're going to think about 

1773
01:35:11,600 --> 01:35:14,440
the Browns 1st and then they're 
going to think about everything 

1774
01:35:14,440 --> 01:35:16,120
else and they're coming, Oh, I 
don't have a Texan. 

1775
01:35:16,200 --> 01:35:20,040
That's fine. 
Yeah, that's the thing. 

1776
01:35:20,040 --> 01:35:21,720
Like I. 
Maybe. 

1777
01:35:21,760 --> 01:35:23,840
I I agree with that. 
I don't think people are going 

1778
01:35:23,840 --> 01:35:27,080
to be like shit I don't have, 
but they're also going to say 

1779
01:35:27,080 --> 01:35:28,960
that about a buck, right? 
They'll be like a shit. 

1780
01:35:28,960 --> 01:35:30,480
I don't have a buck. 
Whatever. 

1781
01:35:31,200 --> 01:35:33,120
Right. 
Even though I I personally think

1782
01:35:33,120 --> 01:35:36,040
that's a mistake, but I am, I do
agree that that would be the 

1783
01:35:36,040 --> 01:35:38,520
thought process. 
Yeah, that makes sense. 

1784
01:35:39,080 --> 01:35:42,320
I guess it I wasn't thinking 
about it as directly bucks verse

1785
01:35:43,160 --> 01:35:44,880
Texans, but it does kind of come
down to that, huh? 

1786
01:35:47,680 --> 01:35:51,160
And they're the same bet plus 2 
1/2 + 3 at home. 

1787
01:35:51,480 --> 01:35:54,480
It's just that the Eagles are 
the defending NFC champ with 

1788
01:35:54,480 --> 01:35:56,760
Jalen Hurts and and people still
want to believe they're better 

1789
01:35:56,760 --> 01:35:58,200
than they actually are right 
now. 

1790
01:35:58,680 --> 01:36:01,680
Yeah, Brown Browns are bringing 
Joe Flacco into town. 

1791
01:36:02,160 --> 01:36:04,480
Here's a question. 
How much Kaimi Fairbarren 

1792
01:36:04,480 --> 01:36:09,000
Cleveland D do we Get? 
I think a good, I think a good 

1793
01:36:09,000 --> 01:36:09,360
bet. 
Yeah. 

1794
01:36:09,360 --> 01:36:12,840
I saw Shorty in the chats and 
Texans kicker will be popular. 

1795
01:36:13,160 --> 01:36:16,840
I could. 
I could see taking a a little 

1796
01:36:16,840 --> 01:36:19,520
bit more from the DST and giving
it to fair Baron. 

1797
01:36:20,680 --> 01:36:24,200
I would love to do that, but 
there's so many fucking kickers.

1798
01:36:24,760 --> 01:36:27,120
There's There's so many kickers.
You. 

1799
01:36:27,360 --> 01:36:29,480
You just don't want to do it 
'cause you're the rest of your 

1800
01:36:29,480 --> 01:36:31,280
night's going to be tweaking 1. 
Percent, There's gonna be 

1801
01:36:31,280 --> 01:36:34,880
tweaking kicker percentages. 
There's so many guys in this 

1802
01:36:34,880 --> 01:36:37,440
tournament where you're like, 
oh, this kicker and it feels a 

1803
01:36:37,440 --> 01:36:39,080
little low. 
This is a sneaky good kicker 

1804
01:36:39,080 --> 01:36:41,440
spot. 
It's like, I don't know, you can

1805
01:36:41,440 --> 01:36:42,760
make a case for a ton of 
kickers. 

1806
01:36:43,920 --> 01:36:45,560
Tucker's too high. 
That's what they're saying. 

1807
01:36:45,560 --> 01:36:48,880
I don't know. 
I mean, yeah, Tucker could be 

1808
01:36:49,960 --> 01:36:52,600
Tucker's too high compared to 
what he probably should be. 

1809
01:36:52,600 --> 01:36:57,240
But if I guess that's really the
whole ownership this year comes 

1810
01:36:57,240 --> 01:37:00,720
down to getting the right read 
on Allen versus Lamar which then

1811
01:37:00,720 --> 01:37:05,400
has trickle down effects to, you
know, how people play, how many 

1812
01:37:05,400 --> 01:37:06,680
people fade. 
The Ravens. 

1813
01:37:06,760 --> 01:37:09,080
But I think if we if these 
ownership projections are 

1814
01:37:09,080 --> 01:37:12,560
correct on the quarterbacks and 
Tucker's not too high because no

1815
01:37:12,560 --> 01:37:15,400
one people are going to fade the
Ravens as part of their non 

1816
01:37:15,440 --> 01:37:18,880
Lamar picks. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1817
01:37:20,240 --> 01:37:25,200
I think, yeah. 
This is a combined fade of 56% 

1818
01:37:25,920 --> 01:37:30,000
for a team that I I just feel 
like people are going to, are 

1819
01:37:30,000 --> 01:37:32,360
56% of people going to pick them
to lose out, right? 

1820
01:37:32,360 --> 01:37:34,440
I mean, I know you're saying 
there's going to be some line 

1821
01:37:34,440 --> 01:37:38,280
UPS that are going to play both 
sides to fade in this game, 

1822
01:37:38,280 --> 01:37:40,400
which is just stupid, obviously,
but. 

1823
01:37:41,400 --> 01:37:46,240
Also just the reason why I think
like again looking at the 

1824
01:37:46,240 --> 01:37:49,400
underdog ADP, so Nico has an ADP
of 40. 

1825
01:37:49,560 --> 01:37:53,720
CJ Stroud a lot of times will 
even go undrafted. 

1826
01:37:53,720 --> 01:37:56,920
He's at 52. 
Sometimes, like the Nico drafter

1827
01:37:56,920 --> 01:38:00,520
is like a Lamar or Purdy team 
and they kind of set that up to 

1828
01:38:00,520 --> 01:38:05,520
cover their their buy. 
But like, people are not in on 

1829
01:38:05,760 --> 01:38:10,200
the Texans relative to the AD PS
for the Browns, where Amari goes

1830
01:38:10,200 --> 01:38:12,880
early, Ford goes early, Najoku 
goes early. 

1831
01:38:13,120 --> 01:38:16,680
You know, like people like the 
market likes the Browns. 

1832
01:38:16,680 --> 01:38:18,800
It's a good point. 
They want to bet them to make a 

1833
01:38:18,840 --> 01:38:22,960
run because of their D. 
And because of that, like kind 

1834
01:38:22,960 --> 01:38:25,920
of clean concentration of skill 
position players. 

1835
01:38:26,360 --> 01:38:29,120
Yeah. 
It's not as high as last year. 

1836
01:38:29,120 --> 01:38:32,360
The Jags were faded by 39% of 
the fuel. 

1837
01:38:32,360 --> 01:38:36,720
So that's obviously quite a bit 
lower than 56%, but the charges 

1838
01:38:36,720 --> 01:38:40,440
were at 6%. 
So you had the field very 

1839
01:38:40,440 --> 01:38:44,320
clearly picking a winner there, 
which they were wrong about and 

1840
01:38:44,520 --> 01:38:48,000
overconfident to do. 
But I think it's just more fun 

1841
01:38:48,640 --> 01:38:50,600
if you're going to pick one of 
these to pick a Brown. 

1842
01:38:51,960 --> 01:38:53,920
And so, yeah, I. 
Think well we do have combined 

1843
01:38:53,920 --> 01:38:58,480
ownership on Amarian and Joku 
approaching 65% and Nico at 40. 

1844
01:38:59,400 --> 01:39:00,520
Mm hmm. 
Yep. 

1845
01:39:02,400 --> 01:39:03,800
No. 
Yeah, I only have the Browns at 

1846
01:39:03,800 --> 01:39:09,640
34% and the Texans or sorry, 36%
fade and the Texans at 56% fade.

1847
01:39:09,640 --> 01:39:12,920
So I'm projecting that people 
will pick the Browns to win this

1848
01:39:12,920 --> 01:39:16,400
game. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1849
01:39:16,400 --> 01:39:20,360
And and Nico falls into that 
category of, you know, feels 

1850
01:39:20,360 --> 01:39:22,840
like a comfy click, right? 
Like he can get there and 

1851
01:39:22,840 --> 01:39:26,080
winning scripts if if they win 
and head to Baltimore, like you 

1852
01:39:26,080 --> 01:39:28,960
still feel good about having 
Nico, they lose in a shootout, 

1853
01:39:28,960 --> 01:39:30,960
you feel good about having Nico 
like that. 

1854
01:39:30,960 --> 01:39:34,000
That part makes sense to me. 
Yep. 

1855
01:39:36,160 --> 01:39:38,440
Two years ago, I think it. 
I think they were playing the 

1856
01:39:38,440 --> 01:39:42,280
Rams. 
The Cardinals in round one were 

1857
01:39:42,280 --> 01:39:47,400
59%, although I get they might 
have been on the road, but that 

1858
01:39:47,400 --> 01:39:53,960
was like one of those we we we 
sometimes see this type of this 

1859
01:39:53,960 --> 01:39:55,520
type of team get faded pretty 
hard. 

1860
01:39:56,920 --> 01:40:00,880
Yep. 
All right, we got our final game

1861
01:40:00,960 --> 01:40:04,720
in the AFC. 
We got the Dolphins and Chiefs. 

1862
01:40:05,440 --> 01:40:09,760
Where do we want to start? 
Let's start, Chiefs. 

1863
01:40:09,760 --> 01:40:15,840
We've talked to Kelsey a lot and
I don't think I'm super, super 

1864
01:40:15,840 --> 01:40:19,560
bullish on him. 
I I have him at 45%. 

1865
01:40:19,560 --> 01:40:22,360
I mean, he's historically been 
quite a bit higher than that, 

1866
01:40:23,600 --> 01:40:27,600
more like 55% at least so. 
Really quick. 

1867
01:40:27,640 --> 01:40:31,760
I just wanna I just wanna agree 
with you Pete. 

1868
01:40:31,760 --> 01:40:33,760
The more that I thought about 
that as we were finishing up in 

1869
01:40:33,760 --> 01:40:36,520
Houston that like I just I think
you're right. 

1870
01:40:36,520 --> 01:40:38,760
I think I think Nico does come 
in low. 

1871
01:40:38,800 --> 01:40:41,240
I I think people fade, Houston. 
They they're afraid of 

1872
01:40:41,240 --> 01:40:43,480
Cleveland's D All that stuff 
just made more sense as you guys

1873
01:40:43,480 --> 01:40:46,760
were saying it anyway, you 
convinced me on that. 

1874
01:40:47,440 --> 01:40:48,600
I think that's how I want to do 
it. 

1875
01:40:48,600 --> 01:40:51,560
I want to play their you. 
You you think people they'll 

1876
01:40:51,560 --> 01:40:54,320
come in even lower than 40%, 
Nico? 

1877
01:40:55,240 --> 01:40:57,120
Yeah, I think you guys are 
right. 

1878
01:40:57,440 --> 01:40:59,200
I was kind of fighting back on 
that, but I. 

1879
01:40:59,560 --> 01:41:04,040
Well, I have it at 40%, so I'm 
not right if that's true, so you

1880
01:41:04,040 --> 01:41:05,680
well you can't. 
Play any other Texans. 

1881
01:41:05,720 --> 01:41:08,040
I think the fade might be even 
higher on them. 

1882
01:41:08,560 --> 01:41:10,840
OK. 
The kicker and D soft. 

1883
01:41:10,840 --> 01:41:12,960
I think they're going to be a 
really popular soft fade, 

1884
01:41:13,760 --> 01:41:18,360
Houston. 
Yeah, yeah, the kicker might 

1885
01:41:18,360 --> 01:41:20,080
come up there. 
I might have to go play with the

1886
01:41:20,080 --> 01:41:21,920
kicker all. 
Right. 

1887
01:41:21,920 --> 01:41:23,520
Anyway, let's go to KC. 
Maybe. 

1888
01:41:23,520 --> 01:41:26,160
Maybe if if Tucker's too high, 
maybe it's because people play 

1889
01:41:26,520 --> 01:41:31,040
Fair Baron a little more. 
So we got Chiefs pulled up here.

1890
01:41:31,560 --> 01:41:35,440
Kelsey, who did end up in the 
Boomer Opto last night. 45%. 

1891
01:41:35,440 --> 01:41:40,080
Pacheco at 36. 
Rice at 8, Bucker at 5, Mahomes 

1892
01:41:40,080 --> 01:41:42,960
at 4. 
Obviously this one is breaking 

1893
01:41:42,960 --> 01:41:47,000
everyone's brains just because 
you know Kelsey has been a 

1894
01:41:47,000 --> 01:41:52,120
staple of the Boomer opto the 
top play projecting for 3.5 

1895
01:41:52,120 --> 01:41:54,800
games every playoffs. 
Tight end, premium. 

1896
01:41:54,800 --> 01:41:59,080
Just like the Stone Cold nuts. 
And now he's looked awful this 

1897
01:41:59,120 --> 01:42:00,280
year. 
This team doesn't have good 

1898
01:42:00,280 --> 01:42:02,480
form. 
We got a cold weather game, 

1899
01:42:02,720 --> 01:42:05,680
Pacheco's back, all this stuff. 
And yet I'm with you. 

1900
01:42:05,680 --> 01:42:07,960
Like when you still slice and 
dice this like you brought 

1901
01:42:07,960 --> 01:42:09,840
Pacheco up like a pretty good 
amount. 

1902
01:42:10,240 --> 01:42:13,520
In a way I agree with and it's 
still like people aren't going 

1903
01:42:13,520 --> 01:42:16,160
to fully fade the Chiefs and 
like Kelsey still is going to be

1904
01:42:16,160 --> 01:42:19,000
the guy almost what similar to 
the McCaffrey thing where the 

1905
01:42:19,000 --> 01:42:22,640
tight end slate is bad, like 
there's not a lot of places to 

1906
01:42:22,640 --> 01:42:27,040
go. 
There's really not. 

1907
01:42:27,120 --> 01:42:32,680
And this is like I'm not 
projecting, I'm projecting tight

1908
01:42:32,680 --> 01:42:36,480
end to be the lowest owned in 
total that it's been in years 

1909
01:42:36,960 --> 01:42:41,240
only 1.1 tight end. 
So that's something I've like 

1910
01:42:41,240 --> 01:42:43,880
really focused on of getting 
that down, getting that number 

1911
01:42:43,880 --> 01:42:49,200
down, not letting it kind of 
just float kind of at 1.4 or 1.5

1912
01:42:49,200 --> 01:42:52,160
where it typically is like this 
is a different landscape. 

1913
01:42:52,680 --> 01:42:54,240
We're going to see less 
ownership of the tight end 

1914
01:42:54,240 --> 01:42:58,720
position than usual, but that's 
this number reflects that. 

1915
01:42:58,880 --> 01:43:02,000
And so like how much lower can 
it get from here? 

1916
01:43:02,680 --> 01:43:06,320
I mean, not that much lower 
because people need to play a 

1917
01:43:06,320 --> 01:43:10,280
tight end. 
And Kelsey has been Mega Chalk 

1918
01:43:10,280 --> 01:43:18,400
in this tournament 66% in 2020. 
He was 54% in 2021 and he was 

1919
01:43:18,400 --> 01:43:24,880
74% last year. 
I think people ultimately are 

1920
01:43:24,880 --> 01:43:28,120
like fuck it, I'll play Kelsey. 
I think that's that's where. 

1921
01:43:28,120 --> 01:43:30,160
He sums it up perfectly. 
Fuck it. 

1922
01:43:30,160 --> 01:43:31,840
I'll play Kelsey. 
I do. 

1923
01:43:32,040 --> 01:43:34,720
That's what I say to myself 
every time I take him in a 

1924
01:43:34,720 --> 01:43:36,880
Gauntlet draft. 
I'm like, oh, I started with 

1925
01:43:36,880 --> 01:43:39,680
Debo and Iuke and Mahomes and 
Kelsey are here. 

1926
01:43:39,680 --> 01:43:42,600
Fuck it, I'll take Kelsey. 
Like if I'm taking Mahomes, 

1927
01:43:42,600 --> 01:43:45,680
like, I'll just tell myself this
story that they find their form 

1928
01:43:45,680 --> 01:43:48,680
again. 
Well, I mean if you are taking 

1929
01:43:48,680 --> 01:43:50,960
Mahomes and we, we were talking 
about this a little bit earlier,

1930
01:43:50,960 --> 01:43:54,200
we've done the thing before. 
It's like how do these teams win

1931
01:43:54,200 --> 01:43:58,200
if you are taking Mahomes? 
They have to have somebody step 

1932
01:43:58,200 --> 01:44:04,000
up and it's not going to be 
fucking MVS or or Sky bore like 

1933
01:44:04,000 --> 01:44:07,520
it's not happening, right, Like 
it could be Rashi Rice, but it's

1934
01:44:07,520 --> 01:44:10,680
probably Kelsey, right? 
It's probably Kelsey has a good 

1935
01:44:10,680 --> 01:44:16,280
run if they win, if they go on a
three-game winning streak, 

1936
01:44:16,280 --> 01:44:19,600
right? 
I mean, yeah. 

1937
01:44:20,000 --> 01:44:26,280
And like, I think the other 
thing about Kelsey is you don't.

1938
01:44:26,360 --> 01:44:28,440
It's like let's you play this 
game on the other side. 

1939
01:44:28,440 --> 01:44:31,760
Most people are playing Tyreek. 
So you go, Tyreek, Kelsey don't 

1940
01:44:31,760 --> 01:44:33,040
have to think about that one too
much. 

1941
01:44:33,040 --> 01:44:34,160
Great. 
I can move on. 

1942
01:44:34,480 --> 01:44:36,520
If you're just filling this in. 
Oh, I got to figure out this 

1943
01:44:36,520 --> 01:44:38,040
game. 
Oh, Tyreek Kelsey, you don't 

1944
01:44:38,040 --> 01:44:39,040
care who wins. 
Whatever. 

1945
01:44:39,520 --> 01:44:43,080
I think that's the key point. 
People do not have the stones to

1946
01:44:43,080 --> 01:44:46,360
play Tyreek and like hard fade 
or even soft fade. 

1947
01:44:46,360 --> 01:44:48,160
The Chiefs. 
I don't think people have. 

1948
01:44:48,160 --> 01:44:49,600
The stones to do that, that's 
right. 

1949
01:44:50,160 --> 01:44:52,400
It's an easier I'll have my cake
and eat it too. 

1950
01:44:53,440 --> 01:44:55,520
Yeah. 
This is the game where you pick 

1951
01:44:55,560 --> 01:44:57,680
a winner and you're better. 
Off. 

1952
01:44:57,680 --> 01:45:00,280
No one's going to pick a winner,
yes, or they'll pick. 

1953
01:45:00,560 --> 01:45:02,120
They'll pick a winner in their 
head. 

1954
01:45:03,160 --> 01:45:05,480
But it's the Chiefs and they 
still play Tyreek. 

1955
01:45:06,160 --> 01:45:09,280
Yeah, but you think you're going
to get a lot of that or you will

1956
01:45:09,280 --> 01:45:11,960
get some Pacheco, whereas I'm 
picking the winner. 

1957
01:45:12,400 --> 01:45:14,840
I mean, 36%'s pretty high. 
So you you're going to see some 

1958
01:45:14,840 --> 01:45:18,960
Pacheco. 
They establish the run, but I'm 

1959
01:45:18,960 --> 01:45:20,560
still going to take Tyriko on 
the comeback. 

1960
01:45:20,600 --> 01:45:25,040
And you know, if the Chiefs, if 
the Chiefs lose, it's not the 

1961
01:45:25,040 --> 01:45:26,720
end of the world. 
Because I didn't lose my tight 

1962
01:45:26,720 --> 01:45:29,160
end. 
I just lost a flex. 

1963
01:45:29,800 --> 01:45:33,040
All this talk about PLC though, 
all those talk about Kelsey 

1964
01:45:33,040 --> 01:45:35,080
though, did make me think that 
in joke who's got to come up a 

1965
01:45:35,080 --> 01:45:39,200
little bit like he is the clear 
other tight end play in my mind 

1966
01:45:39,280 --> 01:45:40,400
from everything we've went 
through. 

1967
01:45:41,960 --> 01:45:44,600
I agree it. 
The problem is he's not the, 

1968
01:45:44,720 --> 01:45:46,680
he's just not the clear play on 
his own team. 

1969
01:45:47,480 --> 01:45:48,640
That's what makes. 
It hard. 

1970
01:45:48,640 --> 01:45:50,320
You have to. 
It's just like you have to play 

1971
01:45:50,320 --> 01:45:52,600
tight end. 
So when you if you want, I think

1972
01:45:52,600 --> 01:45:54,280
people are going to want to fake
Kelsey, right? 

1973
01:45:54,280 --> 01:45:58,000
They're going to feel like they 
want to, and if they do, they're

1974
01:45:58,000 --> 01:45:59,760
not going to want to go farther 
than than Joku. 

1975
01:45:59,800 --> 01:46:02,680
They're not going to want to go 
to Dallas Gotter or wherever. 

1976
01:46:02,680 --> 01:46:04,040
They would have to go after that
point. 

1977
01:46:04,080 --> 01:46:07,240
Yeah, but I that sort of 
reflected the numbers with only 

1978
01:46:07,240 --> 01:46:10,960
1.1 tight ends projected. 
Like it's I've kind of got it. 

1979
01:46:11,320 --> 01:46:13,760
There's a little bit of like 
there will be some people who 

1980
01:46:13,760 --> 01:46:16,440
play 2 tight ends, not not very 
many, but that's going. 

1981
01:46:17,120 --> 01:46:20,280
To be kind of Kelsey and Joku. 
It's all kind of Kelsey and Doku

1982
01:46:20,280 --> 01:46:22,920
and maybe I've got got too high,
but you know as we've talked 

1983
01:46:22,920 --> 01:46:25,760
about that we'll we'll learn 
more about that soon. 

1984
01:46:26,480 --> 01:46:28,720
But that's another story. 
Maybe it goes to enjoy. 

1985
01:46:29,880 --> 01:46:35,440
A very fun pivot is you do 
Najoku KC DST as a pivot on the 

1986
01:46:35,440 --> 01:46:41,600
Browns DST Kelsey. 
Like that's a clean one and 

1987
01:46:41,600 --> 01:46:44,480
where like, I kind of like the 
Najoku side. 

1988
01:46:45,680 --> 01:46:47,800
That one is fun. 
That is fun. 

1989
01:46:47,920 --> 01:46:51,880
I like that a lot. 
You're picking Miami to win out,

1990
01:46:51,880 --> 01:46:53,200
right? 
It's not crazy. 

1991
01:46:53,240 --> 01:46:56,280
That's really fun. 
Yeah, I I think Miami beating 

1992
01:46:56,280 --> 01:46:58,400
the Chiefs is not crazy. 
No. 

1993
01:47:01,680 --> 01:47:03,280
People will kind of play it as 
it's crazy. 

1994
01:47:03,280 --> 01:47:06,120
Like I don't think you're going 
to see a lot of KC. 

1995
01:47:06,120 --> 01:47:08,720
I mean I have KC being faded at 
7%. 

1996
01:47:11,360 --> 01:47:15,040
Maybe butker comes down a little
bit and the defense comes up 

1997
01:47:15,120 --> 01:47:17,360
slightly because of the because 
of the weather. 

1998
01:47:18,320 --> 01:47:20,200
I was just kind of thinking 
about this is like it's the 

1999
01:47:20,200 --> 01:47:21,400
Chiefs. 
People want to play through the 

2000
01:47:21,400 --> 01:47:25,880
kicker, but maybe not as much. 
Yeah, I think that DS. 

2001
01:47:26,960 --> 01:47:28,800
Well, yeah, I think you're right
that there's not going to be a 

2002
01:47:28,800 --> 01:47:31,480
high number of total fades. 
But yeah, as it relates to the 

2003
01:47:31,480 --> 01:47:34,360
kicker and the D, it's probably 
the D over the kicker here. 

2004
01:47:34,400 --> 01:47:36,600
And then maybe the Texans, you 
were talking about flipping back

2005
01:47:36,600 --> 01:47:39,600
some of the kicker. 
Yeah, that gives me some kicker 

2006
01:47:39,600 --> 01:47:41,880
numbers to play with. 
Yeah, maybe I'll do even another

2007
01:47:41,880 --> 01:47:43,400
one. 
Yeah, found found some kicker 

2008
01:47:43,400 --> 01:47:43,960
guys. 
I've. 

2009
01:47:44,640 --> 01:47:47,560
Never seen. 
I got some kicker numbers to 

2010
01:47:47,600 --> 01:47:48,200
play with. 
It's so. 

2011
01:47:48,200 --> 01:47:49,600
Hard to find kicker numbers, 
man. 

2012
01:47:49,600 --> 01:47:52,160
I It's literally here. 
Here. 

2013
01:47:52,400 --> 01:47:54,200
Yeah. 
Where are we going with this? 

2014
01:47:54,200 --> 01:47:55,040
Houston. 
Houston. 

2015
01:47:55,040 --> 01:48:01,240
Let me get that fair Baron baby.
Now he's up to 15. 

2016
01:48:01,400 --> 01:48:06,560
Love it. 
All right, let's let's wrap this

2017
01:48:06,560 --> 01:48:10,000
up with dolphins all. 
Right. 

2018
01:48:12,560 --> 01:48:15,000
KC is going to be a fun one to 
talk to on our next couple 

2019
01:48:15,000 --> 01:48:16,680
shows. 
Just like how to play them. 

2020
01:48:16,680 --> 01:48:19,160
I mean, it's yes, it's a fun 
one. 

2021
01:48:20,000 --> 01:48:21,560
I mean, there's a lot of these 
that. 

2022
01:48:21,560 --> 01:48:24,600
I mean, we spent a lot of time 
on that Bucks, Eagle Spot, Super

2023
01:48:24,600 --> 01:48:28,000
Fun Texans, Brown, Super fun 
Chiefs, Dolphins. 

2024
01:48:28,000 --> 01:48:31,080
Like, there's some really fun. 
Like, even if you just want to 

2025
01:48:31,080 --> 01:48:34,240
eat some of that chalk we talked
about, like, you're not going to

2026
01:48:34,240 --> 01:48:36,960
have to get too Galbran when you
have three to four games with 

2027
01:48:36,960 --> 01:48:38,680
legitimate choose your own 
adventures. 

2028
01:48:41,200 --> 01:48:44,440
Yeah, no, it's it's going to be.
I think it's going to be a fun 

2029
01:48:44,440 --> 01:48:46,320
year. 
I think the big thing for me is 

2030
01:48:46,320 --> 01:48:50,120
I just gotta, I gotta get this 
Lamar Allen thing, right. 

2031
01:48:50,160 --> 01:48:55,000
But yeah, people, it'll be 
interesting to see if people are

2032
01:48:55,000 --> 01:48:57,000
more willing to fade the 
Dolphins than I'm thinking. 

2033
01:48:57,000 --> 01:48:59,320
I mean the the vibes and the 
Dolphins are really low. 

2034
01:49:00,800 --> 01:49:03,440
People saying they haven't beat 
a good team all year. 

2035
01:49:03,440 --> 01:49:08,240
I mean, they literally beat the 
Cowboys in Week 16, but you 

2036
01:49:08,240 --> 01:49:12,000
know, you get blown out by the 
Ravens and then you lose to the 

2037
01:49:12,000 --> 01:49:14,600
Bills to close the season. 
People forget that. 

2038
01:49:14,600 --> 01:49:17,240
So. 
It's this weather narrative 

2039
01:49:17,240 --> 01:49:19,760
stuff too. 
There was a John Ewing tweet 

2040
01:49:19,760 --> 01:49:24,640
that went viral earlier. 
Miami Dolphins and cold weather 

2041
01:49:24,640 --> 01:49:30,240
games less than 40° since 2017. 
They're O and nine straight up 

2042
01:49:30,240 --> 01:49:33,480
and two and seven against the 
spread in those cold weather 

2043
01:49:33,480 --> 01:49:34,800
games. 
So like that that the cold 

2044
01:49:34,800 --> 01:49:38,760
weather Dolphins narrative. 
It's picking up to the point our

2045
01:49:38,760 --> 01:49:41,040
guy, Hassan says to his brain is
gonna freeze. 

2046
01:49:54,080 --> 01:50:00,280
So. 
Anyways, Tyreek Hill 73% boasted

2047
01:50:00,280 --> 01:50:06,040
9%, HN 6%, Sanders 6%, Miami DST
4%. 

2048
01:50:06,840 --> 01:50:09,760
I don't really have anything to 
say about the Tyreek number, 

2049
01:50:11,000 --> 01:50:14,200
maybe even a smidge light if 
people just kind of shrug their 

2050
01:50:14,200 --> 01:50:16,840
shoulders at the running back 
stuff again and those both come 

2051
01:50:16,840 --> 01:50:19,960
down a smidge, I still think 
it's insane that Mostert would 

2052
01:50:19,960 --> 01:50:22,880
be higher than a Chan, but like 
the market seemed to continue to

2053
01:50:22,880 --> 01:50:25,480
do that, so. 
Dude, I had a Chan higher until 

2054
01:50:25,480 --> 01:50:28,520
like a couple hours ago. 
I was like, I've drafted a bunch

2055
01:50:28,520 --> 01:50:30,800
of draftking stuff. 
I've drafted a bunch of underdog

2056
01:50:30,800 --> 01:50:35,040
stuff and Mostert goes 1st. 
And you know, Mostert's the one 

2057
01:50:35,040 --> 01:50:38,000
who scores the touchdowns and 
sounds like he's going to play. 

2058
01:50:38,000 --> 01:50:41,560
So I think people are going to 
check to see if Mostert's going 

2059
01:50:41,560 --> 01:50:43,200
to be active, and if he is, 
they're going to play Mostert, 

2060
01:50:43,200 --> 01:50:48,280
not HN. 
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 

2061
01:50:48,280 --> 01:50:50,360
That's the only thing that would
massively boost HN. 

2062
01:50:50,360 --> 01:50:53,680
If or you know, if Mostert were 
out, I think you could even. 

2063
01:50:53,840 --> 01:50:56,400
Not only would he swallow up all
of Mostert, but you could 

2064
01:50:56,400 --> 01:50:59,600
probably pull 5 to 10% from 
Tyreek too, if it would. 

2065
01:50:59,600 --> 01:51:01,200
There was full clarity that it 
was. 

2066
01:51:01,200 --> 01:51:03,120
Just if there's full clarity, I 
think Tyreek comes down. 

2067
01:51:03,120 --> 01:51:06,120
I don't think anyone feels great
about this Tyreek number. 

2068
01:51:06,600 --> 01:51:10,720
Yeah, would love to be under 
this Tyreek number, but how do 

2069
01:51:10,720 --> 01:51:13,680
you do it, you know, and I 
don't, I don't. 

2070
01:51:15,120 --> 01:51:16,800
I wonder how many people are 
going to fade them out. 

2071
01:51:16,840 --> 01:51:19,640
I think people are going to 
start to fade them, I was. 

2072
01:51:19,800 --> 01:51:21,800
Just going to. 
Say that the chat, the chat's 

2073
01:51:21,800 --> 01:51:23,360
been comfortable with it all 
night. 

2074
01:51:23,960 --> 01:51:27,240
I think there'll be some some 
higher fades than you have here.

2075
01:51:27,520 --> 01:51:29,360
OK. 
But you've got Packers, 

2076
01:51:29,440 --> 01:51:31,720
Steelers, those are going to be 
mega faded. 

2077
01:51:32,240 --> 01:51:35,320
We just talked about how Houston
will probably be faded as much 

2078
01:51:35,320 --> 01:51:40,240
or more than I as I have it, you
know, and then that only leaves 

2079
01:51:40,240 --> 01:51:41,920
you one other team. 
So then you're definitely 

2080
01:51:41,920 --> 01:51:46,240
playing the Bucks, you're 
definitely playing the Lions, 

2081
01:51:47,120 --> 01:51:48,560
You're definitely playing the 
Eagles. 

2082
01:51:49,360 --> 01:51:54,160
So it's like, I don't know, it's
like it's difficult to. 

2083
01:51:54,560 --> 01:51:57,920
Then you start to compare it. 
Now you're like, oh, Tyreek 

2084
01:51:57,920 --> 01:51:59,960
versus A.J. 
Brown, Tyreek versus Mike Evans.

2085
01:51:59,960 --> 01:52:04,160
This is only 11% on a team 
that's you know that is 4 1/2 

2086
01:52:04,160 --> 01:52:06,600
point. 
We were just, we almost, we're 

2087
01:52:06,600 --> 01:52:09,680
just saying like people aren't 
going to play them to to 

2088
01:52:09,680 --> 01:52:12,920
actually have a legit shot to 
win this game and you're talking

2089
01:52:12,920 --> 01:52:15,320
about this Tyreke number being 
incredibly high. 

2090
01:52:17,120 --> 01:52:18,920
I don't think it's going to go 
to the running backs. 

2091
01:52:18,920 --> 01:52:20,400
I think it's going to go to the 
fate. 

2092
01:52:20,840 --> 01:52:24,200
I mean that's just I think there
will be people that that when 

2093
01:52:24,200 --> 01:52:26,160
they don't want to play Tyreke, 
they fade it. 

2094
01:52:26,960 --> 01:52:28,960
I think I think I agree with 
Gretch. 

2095
01:52:30,280 --> 01:52:33,240
So how high do you think this 
fate can get? 

2096
01:52:33,320 --> 01:52:36,960
I've got an 11%. 
I mean, Detroit's at 15. 

2097
01:52:38,200 --> 01:52:40,760
Wait, you have it at 11, I say. 
Or did you just boost it to 11? 

2098
01:52:41,000 --> 01:52:45,120
No, it's at 11 total the total 
The total fades. 

2099
01:52:45,280 --> 01:52:48,600
Kicker and D and Kicker D. 
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 

2100
01:52:48,640 --> 01:52:52,640
I'm I'm, I'm saying like full 
fade being the one that comes 

2101
01:52:52,640 --> 01:52:56,440
up. 
But but I guess what I'm what 

2102
01:52:56,440 --> 01:53:00,680
I'm asking is in total total. 
Fades total, fades get 

2103
01:53:00,720 --> 01:53:02,480
approached 20%. 
Yeah. 

2104
01:53:03,040 --> 01:53:05,400
The Troy's only at 15. 
You think you could see more 

2105
01:53:05,400 --> 01:53:10,680
Miami fade than Detroit fade? 
OK, what about in relation to 

2106
01:53:10,720 --> 01:53:12,200
the Eagles? 
That's a Dome. 

2107
01:53:12,280 --> 01:53:16,240
Game 7%. 
I don't think they're getting 

2108
01:53:16,240 --> 01:53:18,520
the 27%. 
OK. 

2109
01:53:19,000 --> 01:53:20,680
My I. 
I just think the thing like a 

2110
01:53:20,680 --> 01:53:23,600
lot of people just think the 
dolphins are dead. 

2111
01:53:23,600 --> 01:53:26,080
Like they they they're talking 
about the dolphins as if the 

2112
01:53:26,080 --> 01:53:29,960
spread is 7 1/2. 
Yes, that's right. 

2113
01:53:30,760 --> 01:53:34,120
And Tyreke is still someone you 
want to play a lot of and he's 

2114
01:53:34,120 --> 01:53:35,640
still going to have a really 
high number. 

2115
01:53:35,720 --> 01:53:38,800
Yeah, but once you you go past 
that and you go, where else do 

2116
01:53:38,800 --> 01:53:40,720
we go? 
That's why I think it maybe 

2117
01:53:40,720 --> 01:53:42,400
isn't. 
The running backs are banged up 

2118
01:53:42,400 --> 01:53:43,920
and people are talking about 
Miami's dead. 

2119
01:53:43,920 --> 01:53:46,840
It's like Tyreke's a uniquely 
appealing, skilled position 

2120
01:53:46,840 --> 01:53:48,120
player. 
But I don't know if I want to 

2121
01:53:48,120 --> 01:53:49,640
put the running backs on a team 
that's dead. 

2122
01:53:50,200 --> 01:53:52,360
And this Pat was one of the 
spots that I had. 

2123
01:53:52,360 --> 01:53:55,320
I had flagged this one before 
again, kind of what I want to 

2124
01:53:55,320 --> 01:53:56,400
do. 
But I wonder if the field's 

2125
01:53:56,400 --> 01:53:58,520
going there too. 
Like, do you come up on Jaden 

2126
01:53:58,520 --> 01:54:01,720
Reed and you come down on 
Packers full fade because you're

2127
01:54:01,720 --> 01:54:05,360
playing that Dome game best 
receiver And then if you're full

2128
01:54:05,360 --> 01:54:11,400
fading, the Dolphins there where
it's like not that outlandish to

2129
01:54:11,400 --> 01:54:16,200
think like Jaden Reed could keep
pace with Tyreke if this game is

2130
01:54:16,200 --> 01:54:20,320
just gross. 
Yeah. 

2131
01:54:20,320 --> 01:54:22,920
I mean, yeah, you're kind of 
betting on the game environment.

2132
01:54:23,120 --> 01:54:27,840
I could see that a bit. 
All right. 

2133
01:54:27,840 --> 01:54:30,440
So I did that. 
I brought that up a little bit. 

2134
01:54:32,920 --> 01:54:37,240
I think this works. 
So this now has Miami at 15% 

2135
01:54:37,240 --> 01:54:39,480
total fade, but do you guys 
think that we could see even 

2136
01:54:39,480 --> 01:54:42,480
more fade than this? 
I'd probably put up at 18 or 19,

2137
01:54:42,480 --> 01:54:43,760
but I think I mean this is 
close. 

2138
01:54:43,760 --> 01:54:45,320
This looks closer to right to. 
Me. 

2139
01:54:45,320 --> 01:54:46,400
Yeah, yours. 
You. 

2140
01:54:46,400 --> 01:54:49,680
You're always going to have a 
better holistic view on this 

2141
01:54:49,680 --> 01:54:51,320
than us. 
We're all just the ones like 

2142
01:54:51,320 --> 01:54:54,200
nitpicking in a vacuum, and then
you got to be able to pull it 

2143
01:54:54,200 --> 01:54:55,960
from somewhere. 
But I was trying to think 

2144
01:54:55,960 --> 01:55:00,520
logically of, I do think just 
how people are thinking about 

2145
01:55:00,520 --> 01:55:03,040
this game environment, they're 
going to be more comfortable 

2146
01:55:03,040 --> 01:55:07,200
with a full fade in a way where,
yeah, I, I. 

2147
01:55:07,240 --> 01:55:09,000
Think you're coming off. 
That's when I'm at Soupy. 

2148
01:55:09,240 --> 01:55:11,440
The only reason I say 18 or 19 
is because you said the Lions 

2149
01:55:11,440 --> 01:55:13,000
were 15. 
And I think people are going to 

2150
01:55:13,000 --> 01:55:14,600
like the Lions Rams game and it 
don't. 

2151
01:55:15,000 --> 01:55:16,440
And they're, you know, they're 
going to feel comfortable. 

2152
01:55:16,480 --> 01:55:17,560
Got it. 
I got it to 17. 

2153
01:55:17,680 --> 01:55:21,040
Really low, yeah. 
The the the Lions full fade 

2154
01:55:21,040 --> 01:55:24,760
could be really low. 
I think I'd have the Lions full 

2155
01:55:24,760 --> 01:55:26,320
fade at very low. 
Oh, sorry. 

2156
01:55:26,320 --> 01:55:27,520
I think that let's come soft 
fade. 

2157
01:55:28,440 --> 01:55:29,400
Yeah. 
Some soft fades. 

2158
01:55:29,400 --> 01:55:31,080
Let. 
Me. 

2159
01:55:31,080 --> 01:55:34,440
See, no. 
I have the lions full fade at 5 

2160
01:55:34,440 --> 01:55:37,120
which is probably too high. 
Yeah. 

2161
01:55:38,760 --> 01:55:46,280
So I could bring that down. 
All right. 

2162
01:55:47,080 --> 01:55:51,520
Yeah, I I also, I I agree. 
Like people aren't going to want

2163
01:55:51,520 --> 01:55:53,160
to play. 
Yeah, that's true. 

2164
01:55:53,320 --> 01:55:54,280
They. 
Cold weather. 

2165
01:55:55,640 --> 01:55:56,760
Well, I found more kicker 
points. 

2166
01:55:57,040 --> 01:55:59,640
That's good. 
More kicker points I need. 

2167
01:55:59,640 --> 01:56:01,880
I need those percentages, kicker
percentages come down. 

2168
01:56:01,920 --> 01:56:04,000
Yeah, that's probably right. 
He could be as low as 2. 

2169
01:56:04,280 --> 01:56:07,320
'Cause you think about how the 
field is gonna think through, 

2170
01:56:07,760 --> 01:56:10,040
like the the the outcomes. 
And I do think they're gonna 

2171
01:56:10,040 --> 01:56:12,160
play the Dolphins in a really 
binary way. 

2172
01:56:12,160 --> 01:56:16,240
Like Tyriq does Tyriq things or 
like the Dolphins just implode 

2173
01:56:16,240 --> 01:56:19,240
into his brain freezes. 
Like, I I feel like those are 

2174
01:56:19,280 --> 01:56:21,640
like the dichotomies. 
Whereas you can live in the 

2175
01:56:21,640 --> 01:56:24,560
margins more with like that 
Texans Browns game. 

2176
01:56:24,800 --> 01:56:27,320
Oh, you know, fair Baron, you 
know, kicks a bunch of field 

2177
01:56:27,320 --> 01:56:30,920
goals or the like. 
It's a little easier I think to 

2178
01:56:30,920 --> 01:56:33,920
kind of hedge it or middle it in
that game environment where the 

2179
01:56:33,920 --> 01:56:37,360
Dolphins are like a a roar shark
test for for how you want to 

2180
01:56:37,360 --> 01:56:38,880
think about. 
People are definitely going to 

2181
01:56:38,880 --> 01:56:40,880
play the DS in the cold weather 
and they're going to play the 

2182
01:56:40,880 --> 01:56:43,440
kickers in the domes. 
I mean, it's just like it's too 

2183
01:56:43,440 --> 01:56:46,680
simple, too, too much of A clear
line in this, this slate. 

2184
01:56:52,120 --> 01:56:56,560
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
Well, I got fairbearing up to 

2185
01:56:56,560 --> 01:57:01,160
19%, so that's pretty sweet. 
There you go. 

2186
01:57:01,600 --> 01:57:03,680
The kicker. 
The kicker numbers. 

2187
01:57:06,120 --> 01:57:09,360
So people wanted us to to draft 
one because we drafted one on 

2188
01:57:09,360 --> 01:57:18,560
the Boomer Opto. 
I'll I'll register us for one. 

2189
01:57:18,560 --> 01:57:25,320
We can build a A35 right now, 
Gretsch. 

2190
01:57:25,400 --> 01:57:27,880
You're our back in the saddle 
tonight. 

2191
01:57:27,880 --> 01:57:29,040
You. 
Who do you want to start us 

2192
01:57:29,040 --> 01:57:38,240
with? 
I want to start us with Cooper 

2193
01:57:38,240 --> 01:57:43,960
Cup all. 
Right, here we go. 

2194
01:57:52,050 --> 01:57:55,410
Oh, by the way, because I was 
thinking about the bracket as we

2195
01:57:55,410 --> 01:57:59,280
did this, we're working on a 
little bracket tool, but it's 

2196
01:57:59,280 --> 01:58:05,960
not out yet. 
But I wanted to tease that easy,

2197
01:58:05,960 --> 01:58:09,000
I talked to him today and he's 
working on a tool for this as 

2198
01:58:09,000 --> 01:58:11,720
well. 
If you're in the ship chasing 

2199
01:58:11,720 --> 01:58:15,880
Discord or the legendary upside 
Discord, he's going to share a 

2200
01:58:15,880 --> 01:58:19,760
version of his tool that has my 
ownership projections already 

2201
01:58:20,120 --> 01:58:23,200
loaded in. 
And then you can use that to 

2202
01:58:23,200 --> 01:58:27,600
kind of generate, you can kind 
of create a bracket and then SIM

2203
01:58:27,600 --> 01:58:32,040
out what the optimal line up is 
with that bracket in there, 

2204
01:58:32,040 --> 01:58:33,760
which is a. 
It's pretty cool. 

2205
01:58:33,760 --> 01:58:37,520
So yeah, yeah. 
And it's just like the 

2206
01:58:37,520 --> 01:58:40,480
simplicity of you also have this
drop down where you can just 

2207
01:58:40,480 --> 01:58:44,160
like fill out the bracket in his
spreadsheet as well, which just 

2208
01:58:44,160 --> 01:58:46,720
keeping track of the bracket 
that you're filling out is is 

2209
01:58:46,720 --> 01:58:51,280
really helpful. 
Yelp All right, so we got Cooper

2210
01:58:51,280 --> 01:58:54,880
Cup. 
Pat, where do you want to go? 

2211
01:58:57,400 --> 01:59:03,800
OK, let's see. 
Let's. 

2212
01:59:05,000 --> 01:59:07,200
We always get the fun leverage 
picks out of the way 1st and 

2213
01:59:07,200 --> 01:59:08,960
then we're like, shit, we need 
to check this up. 

2214
01:59:09,200 --> 01:59:11,080
I'm going to steal one of yours,
Pete. 

2215
01:59:11,120 --> 01:59:16,080
I'm going to go KCDST. 
OK, nice. 

2216
01:59:19,880 --> 01:59:22,240
Echo winner in the KC Miami 
game. 

2217
01:59:22,720 --> 01:59:25,120
Well, and I'll, I'll, I'll 
piggyback on it with the, yeah. 

2218
01:59:25,600 --> 01:59:27,160
That's the. 
That's the pairing. 

2219
01:59:28,760 --> 01:59:32,960
All right, back to you, Gretch. 
Oh, that doesn't have to be your

2220
01:59:32,960 --> 01:59:35,880
pick if you don't want. 
I think we all trust me. 

2221
01:59:36,080 --> 01:59:39,920
I'm I'm a pro with this on on 
the roll cat all turned into an 

2222
01:59:39,920 --> 01:59:42,080
alpha and picked 3 picks in a 
row for our lineup. 

2223
01:59:43,840 --> 01:59:49,240
So I'm gonna piggyback off cup 
and do 'cause then you gotta get

2224
01:59:49,240 --> 01:59:54,520
into a running back pivot. 
I got two that I want to play. 

2225
01:59:55,040 --> 01:59:56,840
Here we go. 
I'll do. 

2226
01:59:56,840 --> 01:59:59,000
I'll do Aaron Jones. 
I don't want to make our 

2227
01:59:59,000 --> 02:00:01,280
quarterback decision yet. 
The other running back I want to

2228
02:00:01,280 --> 02:00:05,000
play was was James Cook. 
Obviously when I say the 

2229
02:00:05,000 --> 02:00:11,360
quarterback thing. 
All right. 

2230
02:00:11,480 --> 02:00:18,440
Back to you, Pat. 
I'm going to go Allen. 

2231
02:00:18,440 --> 02:00:22,240
OK, Josh Allen. 
That makes sense. 

2232
02:00:25,720 --> 02:00:27,560
I'll just be. 
I'll be the chalk guy. 

2233
02:00:27,840 --> 02:00:33,440
I'll throw in CD lamb here. 
I'll I'll take Tyreke as well. 

2234
02:00:34,720 --> 02:00:37,600
We got the KCD. 
Mm hmm. 

2235
02:00:40,280 --> 02:00:43,720
Mm hmm. 
I'll go. 

2236
02:00:43,720 --> 02:00:48,120
Amen, Raw. 
Get chunky there, OK? 

2237
02:00:51,080 --> 02:00:54,520
I'm gonna, I'm gonna stay chalky
with CMC, I think with like the 

2238
02:00:54,520 --> 02:01:00,400
Aaron Jones Cup, Nijoku DST. 
So now we're down to two Flex 

2239
02:01:00,400 --> 02:01:06,120
and a kicker. 
We, I mean, so we we need. 

2240
02:01:06,640 --> 02:01:10,120
We need an eagle or a Bach. 
An Eagle Bach And we don't have 

2241
02:01:10,120 --> 02:01:16,760
a Raven yet either. 
And yeah, and then the Texans is

2242
02:01:16,760 --> 02:01:19,360
the other one we're probably 
headed toward a a fade on 

2243
02:01:19,400 --> 02:01:23,160
potentially. 
What did I say? 

2244
02:01:23,160 --> 02:01:25,840
It's it's everyone's going to 
forget about the Texans and go. 

2245
02:01:25,840 --> 02:01:26,920
I forgot to pick them. 
Who cares? 

2246
02:01:28,880 --> 02:01:31,400
By the way, someone asked 
earlier if I if this sheet is 

2247
02:01:31,400 --> 02:01:34,600
available, if the ownership it 
is available in the ship chasing

2248
02:01:34,600 --> 02:01:37,920
Discord or legendary. 
Upside, if you're a member of 

2249
02:01:37,960 --> 02:01:41,480
either, then you'll get it. 
I'm going to take Zay Flowers 

2250
02:01:41,480 --> 02:01:46,640
and plug the tough stuff. 
I mean, Mike Evans is one of my 

2251
02:01:46,640 --> 02:01:49,560
favorite parents, but I don't. 
I like to play both sides of 

2252
02:01:49,560 --> 02:01:51,080
that game. 
I don't want to pick Tampa to 

2253
02:01:51,080 --> 02:01:53,600
win on this team where we 
already kind of pick some other.

2254
02:01:54,240 --> 02:01:58,640
If he wins, it becomes a crazy 
bracket. 

2255
02:01:58,880 --> 02:01:59,680
But I don't know. 
I'll let you. 

2256
02:01:59,720 --> 02:02:04,160
I'll let you just say I. 
I think we go A.J. 

2257
02:02:04,160 --> 02:02:07,400
Brown, man, we just got we. 
He's gonna be fine. 

2258
02:02:07,880 --> 02:02:08,680
That's what I was. 
Gonna. 

2259
02:02:08,680 --> 02:02:12,480
They're gonna win. 
Yeah, that's what I was gonna do

2260
02:02:12,480 --> 02:02:14,120
if I didn't do say Flowers was 
A.J. 

2261
02:02:14,160 --> 02:02:19,280
Brown. 
And so then I mean do we we go 

2262
02:02:19,280 --> 02:02:22,560
chalk with McLaughlin here or 
fair Baron I think either are 

2263
02:02:22,560 --> 02:02:26,040
probably fine I. 
Think, Yeah, I think McLaughlin.

2264
02:02:27,040 --> 02:02:29,480
Yeah. 
All right. 

2265
02:02:29,480 --> 02:02:30,920
Yeah. 
This is this is a nice. 

2266
02:02:31,080 --> 02:02:34,120
It's a fun team. 
Yeah, it has some of the like 

2267
02:02:34,200 --> 02:02:37,640
subtle pivots like I would, I 
would call like the Josh Allen, 

2268
02:02:37,680 --> 02:02:43,720
the Cooper Cup, Zay Flowers. 
But then I think combined the 

2269
02:02:43,720 --> 02:02:47,000
Aaron Jones is a big one, right.
When you consider the big fade 

2270
02:02:47,000 --> 02:02:50,120
there in getting off of the 
Kyren and then leveraging that 

2271
02:02:50,120 --> 02:02:53,200
with the Cup who will be the 
third most popular like this 

2272
02:02:53,200 --> 02:02:55,280
already gets you into pretty 
unique territory. 

2273
02:02:58,480 --> 02:03:01,920
So the full team here for the 
audio listeners Josh Allen, CMC,

2274
02:03:01,920 --> 02:03:04,440
Aaron Jones, Cooper Cup, CD, 
Lamb Amanras, St. 

2275
02:03:04,440 --> 02:03:07,120
Brown, Zayflowers, A.J. 
Brown, Tyreek Hill, David 

2276
02:03:07,120 --> 02:03:10,840
Najoku, Chase McLaughlin and 
Kansas City DST. 

2277
02:03:11,480 --> 02:03:14,760
And just like again, thinking 
through how we talked out these 

2278
02:03:14,760 --> 02:03:18,600
lineups and like even last 
night, I am really convinced 

2279
02:03:18,600 --> 02:03:22,240
that we're not going to see that
many too tight in lineups. 

2280
02:03:22,360 --> 02:03:25,760
It's like it doesn't even come 
into the conversation as you're.

2281
02:03:25,760 --> 02:03:28,040
Building that flex like it's 
just like. 

2282
02:03:28,640 --> 02:03:32,160
Afterthought. 
Yeah, I think the only way is it

2283
02:03:32,840 --> 02:03:36,160
AJ Brown's health is, is, you 
know, really in question. 

2284
02:03:36,280 --> 02:03:40,560
And then maybe we get a little 
bit more Goddard because no 

2285
02:03:40,560 --> 02:03:42,880
one's going to feel that good 
about Goddard to where they're 

2286
02:03:42,880 --> 02:03:44,720
going to come off and joke who 
or Kelsey. 

2287
02:03:44,720 --> 02:03:47,560
It's just going to be more like,
I guess I'll, I don't want to 

2288
02:03:47,560 --> 02:03:48,840
fade the Eagles. 
So I'll just take Goddard. 

2289
02:03:50,040 --> 02:03:55,360
Yelp all right, the two of 
Freeze lineup is in the. 

2290
02:03:57,160 --> 02:04:02,280
Two of freeze. 
And we picked ACSD. 

2291
02:04:05,680 --> 02:04:08,600
It sounds like he came out with 
his own line of popsicles called

2292
02:04:08,600 --> 02:04:10,800
2DS or something. 
What? 

2293
02:04:10,920 --> 02:04:12,400
What? 
Hassan didn't consider. 

2294
02:04:13,400 --> 02:04:16,040
What if two is brain freezing? 
Is is what we need. 

2295
02:04:16,040 --> 02:04:18,200
It unlocks. 
It. 

2296
02:04:19,160 --> 02:04:23,160
Oh man, we had, we had floated 
before the show doing a quick 

2297
02:04:23,160 --> 02:04:24,800
underdog draft. 
Do you guys want to do that or 

2298
02:04:24,800 --> 02:04:26,440
or? 
No, let's do it. 

2299
02:04:26,440 --> 02:04:27,360
Let's hit it. 
I'm down. 

2300
02:04:27,520 --> 02:04:28,720
If you guys want to do it, let's
do it. 

2301
02:04:29,240 --> 02:04:32,000
Because we you guys want to do a
big boy draft. 

2302
02:04:32,400 --> 02:04:34,480
Oh, let's do it. 
Let's do it. 

2303
02:04:35,120 --> 02:04:36,400
All right. 
Yeah, we we'll probably have a 

2304
02:04:36,400 --> 02:04:38,800
couple seconds to fill this. 
I would imagine we're going to 

2305
02:04:38,800 --> 02:04:43,520
hop in a a a big mitten if 
anyone wants to to get in here. 

2306
02:04:44,440 --> 02:04:57,080
It's $500, only a 216 entry and 
the advance on it is two of six,

2307
02:04:57,080 --> 02:05:02,320
one of four, one of three, six, 
only a six person final and we 

2308
02:05:02,320 --> 02:05:03,920
did. 
I did a couple of these with 

2309
02:05:03,920 --> 02:05:09,920
easy earlier today, but a a very
nice structure. 

2310
02:05:10,960 --> 02:05:17,320
Pete, check the the ship chasing
mentions to your post for 

2311
02:05:17,320 --> 02:05:19,960
tonight. 
Diego had a a pretty good one 

2312
02:05:20,200 --> 02:05:22,720
for us. 
Oh, the karate. 

2313
02:05:22,800 --> 02:05:25,680
The picture of karate. 
Tried to sell the salvia. 

2314
02:05:25,680 --> 02:05:27,360
Yeah, it's. 
Yeah, that's pretty photo. 

2315
02:05:28,360 --> 02:05:31,960
Yeah, the, you know, we got the 
old Rolodex of Karaine photos 

2316
02:05:31,960 --> 02:05:34,840
back when I used to have to, you
know, troll through his old 

2317
02:05:34,840 --> 02:05:36,720
Facebook profile to round those 
up. 

2318
02:05:38,640 --> 02:05:40,080
That's right. 
That was a. 

2319
02:05:40,960 --> 02:05:48,280
He looks like he's in some type 
of like boiler room movie or 

2320
02:05:48,280 --> 02:05:52,880
something, you know, where he's 
it's like that like early 2000s,

2321
02:05:53,640 --> 02:05:57,360
like fight Clubby, kind of like 
I'm wearing a suit, but I'm also

2322
02:05:57,360 --> 02:06:05,320
like, I'm on something. 
My guy Chris does such a good 

2323
02:06:05,320 --> 02:06:07,600
job with the thumbs. 
He actually does Pat's thumbs at

2324
02:06:07,600 --> 02:06:09,960
legendary upside too. 
But there is a part of me that 

2325
02:06:09,960 --> 02:06:13,000
is a little, you know, wistfully
nostalgic for, you know, going 

2326
02:06:13,000 --> 02:06:16,240
through Pat and Sam Hoppins your
Facebook page. 

2327
02:06:16,440 --> 02:06:18,520
You know, find an old you on 
like, what? 

2328
02:06:18,840 --> 02:06:20,880
Did I have you on like a scooter
or something? 

2329
02:06:21,320 --> 02:06:22,600
One of the photos I've had some 
of. 

2330
02:06:24,240 --> 02:06:26,800
Those photos are so old now, 
like the one from tonight. 

2331
02:06:26,840 --> 02:06:30,400
I'm like, I was probably like 
20-6 years old. 

2332
02:06:31,960 --> 02:06:34,040
It's like a while ago. 
Yeah. 

2333
02:06:35,760 --> 02:06:37,640
Have you done any of the big 
mittens, Pat? 

2334
02:06:38,880 --> 02:06:40,400
I I didn't. 
I've done. 

2335
02:06:40,480 --> 02:06:43,520
I think I tried to do one last 
night and it didn't fill. 

2336
02:06:44,800 --> 02:06:47,200
I tried to do the the original 
big mitten. 

2337
02:06:47,240 --> 02:06:48,680
I did. 
AI didn't get. 

2338
02:06:49,360 --> 02:06:51,760
I forget how many I got in but. 
Well. 

2339
02:06:51,880 --> 02:06:54,720
Sure. 
We had R4 that we did with the 

2340
02:06:54,760 --> 02:06:57,120
the ship chasters. 
I checked the I checked those 

2341
02:06:57,120 --> 02:07:00,760
out the other day just seeing if
like how those had aged and they

2342
02:07:00,760 --> 02:07:02,080
seemed like they had done pretty
well. 

2343
02:07:02,200 --> 02:07:04,840
I mean as far as how they aged 
bracket wise. 

2344
02:07:04,880 --> 02:07:06,960
We didn't have any Jags, right? 
We had. 

2345
02:07:07,040 --> 02:07:09,000
Nope, we avoided all Jags in 
that. 

2346
02:07:09,040 --> 02:07:10,920
Nice. 
That's that was a big lamb nine 

2347
02:07:11,800 --> 02:07:16,400
we got we did a buck stack there
and we did a ram stack on. 

2348
02:07:16,960 --> 02:07:18,920
So those I feel pretty good 
about both those. 

2349
02:07:20,320 --> 02:07:22,480
Pat, let's just reiterate for 
people, if you're in the ship 

2350
02:07:22,480 --> 02:07:24,920
chasing Discord, the link is 
already in there. 

2351
02:07:24,920 --> 02:07:27,920
As far as legendary upside Subs,
what's the best way they're 

2352
02:07:27,920 --> 02:07:30,520
going to get it? 
I'm going to e-mail it out 

2353
02:07:30,520 --> 02:07:33,160
tonight and put it on the site. 
It's not currently on the site. 

2354
02:07:33,160 --> 02:07:37,280
I want it to go through and get 
your guys feedback on everything

2355
02:07:37,360 --> 02:07:41,040
and tweak stuff before emailing 
it out but and posting it, but 

2356
02:07:41,040 --> 02:07:45,520
I'll do that after the show. 
You can get the link is in the 

2357
02:07:45,560 --> 02:07:49,520
ship chasing Discord and it's in
the legendary Upside Discord in 

2358
02:07:49,520 --> 02:07:53,360
the best ball channel. 
So that's that's where to find 

2359
02:07:53,360 --> 02:07:54,680
it right now, but it'll be on 
the site soon. 

2360
02:07:55,720 --> 02:08:01,320
The We are off to the races here
friends and family draft copper 

2361
02:08:01,320 --> 02:08:04,480
prices at the 11. 
I actually don't know Alex 

2362
02:08:04,480 --> 02:08:08,480
Sterling. 
We're at 13, EDN 14, Liam 1/5 

2363
02:08:08,480 --> 02:08:13,680
and Easy 16, so potentially a 
stay in your lane kind of draft,

2364
02:08:13,800 --> 02:08:17,560
but it's still hard not to be 
kind of trampling all over each 

2365
02:08:17,560 --> 02:08:19,560
other when you're you're going 
for some of these stacks. 

2366
02:08:21,560 --> 02:08:24,040
Where's Liam? 
So, OK, so the bills. 

2367
02:08:24,120 --> 02:08:26,000
Five. 
Well, this is the. 

2368
02:08:26,400 --> 02:08:28,520
Bill Stack. 
This is the question here of 

2369
02:08:28,520 --> 02:08:31,080
like do we do you do the Josh 
Allen at 1/3? 

2370
02:08:32,400 --> 02:08:35,720
I mean, Liam's going to double 
tap bills at at the turn no 

2371
02:08:35,760 --> 02:08:36,720
matter what we do. 
So I. 

2372
02:08:36,880 --> 02:08:38,560
Oh, Allen, goes one. 
Wow you. 

2373
02:08:39,480 --> 02:08:42,360
Guys like Lamb. 
Yeah, yeah, Lamb's nice. 

2374
02:08:42,400 --> 02:08:44,920
I like lamb. 
I like LAMP. 

2375
02:08:45,400 --> 02:08:46,760
What's the advanced structure in
this? 

2376
02:08:47,640 --> 02:08:51,640
Yeah, it's, it's very favorable 
2 of 6, which is same as 

2377
02:08:51,640 --> 02:08:54,880
everything, one of four which is
obviously very different and 

2378
02:08:54,880 --> 02:08:58,760
then one of three. 
So the hardest round is actually

2379
02:08:59,120 --> 02:09:01,880
the divisional round one of 
four, because otherwise you're 

2380
02:09:01,880 --> 02:09:06,120
1/3. 1413 final. 
And all the money still is in 

2381
02:09:06,160 --> 02:09:08,160
the the conference championship 
better. 

2382
02:09:08,160 --> 02:09:10,120
Even if you make it to the 
conference championship the one 

2383
02:09:10,120 --> 02:09:14,320
of three, you're still not even 
min cashing if you finish in 

2384
02:09:14,320 --> 02:09:23,480
18th place. 
So Liam does go Dick's. 

2385
02:09:23,480 --> 02:09:25,720
Have fun. 
I told you, man, he's going to 

2386
02:09:25,880 --> 02:09:29,360
dabble. 
Tab Bills, he's going James Cook

2387
02:09:29,360 --> 02:09:30,920
right now. 
This this port. 

2388
02:09:31,840 --> 02:09:36,480
Oh my God, Sterling. 
He's got a brand to have pulled.

2389
02:09:41,400 --> 02:09:44,360
Liam only knows one bracket and 
it's the one where the Bills are

2390
02:09:44,360 --> 02:09:46,640
in the title game. 
So even if Alan's gone, you just

2391
02:09:46,640 --> 02:09:52,000
play the Bills without Alan. 
So who knows what alx will do 

2392
02:09:52,040 --> 02:09:56,200
here? 
I assume Copper will take Purdy.

2393
02:09:56,960 --> 02:10:00,240
So do you guys want to push push
DAC? 

2394
02:10:00,280 --> 02:10:04,080
Oh shit, that actually changes 
things because EDN just timed 

2395
02:10:04,080 --> 02:10:07,640
out on Purdy I think. 
Yeah, holy cow, EDN timing out 

2396
02:10:07,640 --> 02:10:09,920
on a $500 draft with two bye 
week quarterbacks. 

2397
02:10:10,520 --> 02:10:13,000
Yikes. 
Which way do you guys want to go

2398
02:10:13,000 --> 02:10:15,880
here? 
Well, do you think we get, I 

2399
02:10:15,880 --> 02:10:19,760
mean DAC is probably the the 
safest way to go here? 

2400
02:10:25,680 --> 02:10:29,400
Honestly, after after that 
timeout from EDNI kind of don't 

2401
02:10:29,400 --> 02:10:32,000
want to risk the Dak shit. 
Because yeah. 

2402
02:10:33,800 --> 02:10:35,640
Yeah. 
And there's just no one here. 

2403
02:10:35,640 --> 02:10:40,280
We already talked about like 
Hill and ARSB are overpriced. 

2404
02:10:41,760 --> 02:10:44,840
Copper will take Kittle with one
of the picks anyways. 

2405
02:10:45,320 --> 02:10:47,840
I don't really think we're there
was something massive we're 

2406
02:10:47,840 --> 02:10:53,800
passing up on unless. 
You win Zay Zay and then play 

2407
02:10:53,920 --> 02:10:57,840
for Dak on the way back. 
And we could still get Zay here 

2408
02:10:58,280 --> 02:11:00,520
potentially a lot of times. 
Copper's not going to want to 

2409
02:11:00,520 --> 02:11:02,160
start with three bye week 
players. 

2410
02:11:02,680 --> 02:11:04,560
Yeah. 
He'll go. 

2411
02:11:05,440 --> 02:11:07,440
He'll go. 
Mahomes, I would imagine. 

2412
02:11:07,440 --> 02:11:11,040
Plus, plus. 
Oh, I think it's kiddo in 

2413
02:11:11,040 --> 02:11:14,080
Mahomes. 
OK, yeah, that makes sense. 

2414
02:11:14,080 --> 02:11:15,600
And. 
This is this shouldn't be zay 

2415
02:11:15,600 --> 02:11:18,040
'cause you already have two AFC 
teams. 

2416
02:11:18,080 --> 02:11:20,320
Yeah, I don't know if you guys 
want to do Zay, even though that

2417
02:11:20,320 --> 02:11:21,800
was the only one. 
That was. 

2418
02:11:22,120 --> 02:11:25,600
Very well with Dallas. 
Yeah, I mean, Pollard's the 

2419
02:11:25,600 --> 02:11:29,160
other guy, I think in the 
discussion, but I. 

2420
02:11:29,160 --> 02:11:32,200
Would almost want to dare 
someone to take unstacked. 

2421
02:11:33,280 --> 02:11:36,960
We prefer zay. 
Yeah, I don't want to be. 

2422
02:11:37,320 --> 02:11:41,400
I mean, I I like Zay too. 
I was just thinking, I wasn't 

2423
02:11:41,400 --> 02:11:43,920
going to say, I didn't mean to 
say I don't want to be, but I I 

2424
02:11:43,920 --> 02:11:47,800
think in this small of a 
contest, you don't have to be as

2425
02:11:47,960 --> 02:11:50,760
massively correlated with 
Dallas, right? 

2426
02:11:52,400 --> 02:11:56,160
No, but they do play round one, 
so and you know you expect them 

2427
02:11:56,160 --> 02:11:58,840
to put up points. 
So they're they're kind of a 

2428
02:11:58,840 --> 02:12:01,720
nice like double dip where you 
get the round one points plus a 

2429
02:12:01,720 --> 02:12:06,880
nice Super Bowl team, yeah. 
The the EDN domino is gonna be 

2430
02:12:06,880 --> 02:12:08,640
wild. 
And does EDN even know we're 

2431
02:12:08,640 --> 02:12:10,120
drafting? 
He might have been sitting in 

2432
02:12:10,120 --> 02:12:12,920
this room and it filled because 
he's still bleeding the clock. 

2433
02:12:12,920 --> 02:12:16,400
So he's gonna OK, EDN is back. 
He's gonna try to claw his way 

2434
02:12:16,400 --> 02:12:19,640
out of this. 
Oof, man, that's a rough start. 

2435
02:12:22,480 --> 02:12:24,480
Well, Lamar Purdy's an 
extremely. 

2436
02:12:24,760 --> 02:12:27,840
Rough start not let's start like
you're fucked. 

2437
02:12:27,880 --> 02:12:29,760
Like, how do you come out? 
How do you come back? 

2438
02:12:30,120 --> 02:12:31,680
You don't claw your way out of 
it. 

2439
02:12:31,880 --> 02:12:33,440
It's. 
Like you don't want to draft 

2440
02:12:33,440 --> 02:12:35,080
more than two quarterbacks, 
basically, ever. 

2441
02:12:35,560 --> 02:12:37,880
And now you have to. 
So that already sucks. 

2442
02:12:42,680 --> 02:12:46,000
EDN was a dog bowl finalist. 
You know, he he had a chunk of 

2443
02:12:46,000 --> 02:12:47,840
change, you know, burning a hole
in his. 

2444
02:12:48,040 --> 02:12:51,520
In his. 
Yeah, he he's back now, he said.

2445
02:12:51,520 --> 02:12:53,920
He said he in the discord. 
He's been at one of six in this 

2446
02:12:53,920 --> 02:12:56,520
room for five hours easy and I. 
Snapped. 

2447
02:12:56,520 --> 02:12:58,800
Filled. 
Like three of these earlier. 

2448
02:13:01,240 --> 02:13:03,800
Steph. 
Two of six advance first round, 

2449
02:13:03,800 --> 02:13:06,440
then one of four one of three 
six person final. 

2450
02:13:12,200 --> 02:13:15,800
I mean, would you guys play this
as like a a fairly heavy, could 

2451
02:13:15,800 --> 02:13:19,160
you play it as a fairly heavy 
Baltimore and then have two NFC 

2452
02:13:19,160 --> 02:13:21,600
stacks with like even 
potentially 2 quarterbacks on 

2453
02:13:21,600 --> 02:13:23,600
the NFC side with it being a 
smaller field? 

2454
02:13:24,600 --> 02:13:27,920
I wouldn't burn another spot 
with a quarterback, but I'm 

2455
02:13:27,960 --> 02:13:30,480
definitely happy to keep 
grabbing Ravens. 

2456
02:13:30,520 --> 02:13:31,400
I I think we. 
Grabbed. 

2457
02:13:31,600 --> 02:13:33,680
All here, though, we definitely 
grabbed Paul. 

2458
02:13:33,760 --> 02:13:35,400
Yeah, yeah. 
Paul's Paul Sology. 

2459
02:13:36,400 --> 02:13:39,280
The tool thinks that James Cook 
would be a good pick here. 

2460
02:13:39,280 --> 02:13:41,960
See you around. 
The tool doesn't know we're 

2461
02:13:41,960 --> 02:13:49,120
drafting with the tool. 
You wouldn't want to be a second

2462
02:13:49,120 --> 02:13:54,480
quarterback in the even in this 
small of a field, I feel like 

2463
02:13:54,480 --> 02:13:58,840
that's this is an opportunity to
have an inch. 

2464
02:13:58,880 --> 02:14:00,840
Well, I don't know. 
This is a pretty big Dallas 

2465
02:14:00,840 --> 02:14:05,240
stack now. 
With two of sticks like if if 

2466
02:14:05,240 --> 02:14:09,880
Dallas goes off, we're like 
really live to advance just 

2467
02:14:09,880 --> 02:14:12,400
based on that, so. 
Right. 

2468
02:14:12,400 --> 02:14:15,920
I guess I'm saying Dallas, even 
if they only go to like the 

2469
02:14:15,920 --> 02:14:19,920
conference title, the 16 final 
doesn't necessarily mean there's

2470
02:14:19,920 --> 02:14:22,400
a a lock of a good team there. 
That's true. 

2471
02:14:23,440 --> 02:14:26,880
And so Dallas could be a huge 
help to us advancing in the 

2472
02:14:26,880 --> 02:14:29,960
first couple rounds and then 
potentially lose in round three.

2473
02:14:31,520 --> 02:14:36,960
Where are you guys at on like 
Gus versus Justice Hill or just 

2474
02:14:36,960 --> 02:14:38,560
continuing to build out with 
Cooks? 

2475
02:14:38,560 --> 02:14:40,160
Here. 
I think I'm cooks here. 

2476
02:14:44,160 --> 02:14:45,440
I'm. 
I'm good with that. 

2477
02:14:45,440 --> 02:14:50,080
I'm guessing EDN takes what? 
Yeah, I think I grouch. 

2478
02:14:50,080 --> 02:14:52,800
Are you good with cooks? 
I would. 

2479
02:14:52,800 --> 02:14:55,040
I would probably go with Gus, 
but I'm good with cooks. 

2480
02:14:55,040 --> 02:14:56,360
I'm good with cooks if you guys 
want to. 

2481
02:14:57,400 --> 02:14:59,480
Just because justice is 
available, too, so I. 

2482
02:15:00,240 --> 02:15:03,600
And and there's a chance he 
comes back to us. 

2483
02:15:04,280 --> 02:15:06,560
Right. 
I guess there's a chance Cook's 

2484
02:15:06,560 --> 02:15:08,560
comes back too. 
It's it's kind of flipping I 

2485
02:15:08,560 --> 02:15:12,080
think who is most likely because
we're the Lamar team is 

2486
02:15:12,320 --> 02:15:14,880
obviously the only one in 
contention really I think. 

2487
02:15:14,880 --> 02:15:15,960
Yeah, but he's. 
Is he? 

2488
02:15:15,960 --> 02:15:18,880
Well, I guess he is, but I was 
wondering if he was even really 

2489
02:15:18,880 --> 02:15:23,160
a Lamar team, because he's just 
like, I would like my money back

2490
02:15:23,320 --> 02:15:26,520
now. 
Yeah, that's why I've been 

2491
02:15:26,520 --> 02:15:27,920
fascinated. 
That's what Phil is wondering. 

2492
02:15:27,920 --> 02:15:30,920
How's he going to play it? 
He does go, Gus, so he now he 

2493
02:15:30,920 --> 02:15:43,360
just has his Chiefs round one. 
I I I mean I I I don't know that

2494
02:15:43,360 --> 02:15:45,920
I would be playing this to take 
down the tournament at this 

2495
02:15:45,960 --> 02:15:49,200
point. 
It's very difficult to take down

2496
02:15:49,200 --> 02:15:52,480
the entire tournament with 
these, so you're hoping to get 

2497
02:15:52,480 --> 02:15:55,680
through round one, make 
respectable showing. 

2498
02:15:57,640 --> 02:16:00,560
So likely does go wow at EDNI. 
Don't. 

2499
02:16:00,560 --> 02:16:02,600
I don't know how he's going to 
pull himself out of this. 

2500
02:16:04,760 --> 02:16:12,080
He's on tilt. 
So we could do Ferguson, or 

2501
02:16:12,120 --> 02:16:13,640
start building out a secondary 
A. 

2502
02:16:13,680 --> 02:16:16,720
You could do a Chan. 
A Chan could be a start of a 

2503
02:16:16,720 --> 02:16:18,160
second. 
I guess they're thin, though. 

2504
02:16:18,160 --> 02:16:20,280
We're not going to get a bunch. 
I'm putting Ferguson in. 

2505
02:16:20,600 --> 02:16:21,960
Ferguson's good to put in the 
queue. 

2506
02:16:22,160 --> 02:16:28,320
Yeah, OK. 
The I think we're I I would 

2507
02:16:28,320 --> 02:16:32,920
definitely like to get justice 
here coming back although is 

2508
02:16:32,920 --> 02:16:36,799
there I mean is EDN is anyone 
else building out a secondary 

2509
02:16:36,879 --> 02:16:40,160
Raven stack at. 
The Yeah, but EDN may just take 

2510
02:16:40,160 --> 02:16:44,840
every Raven and hope that 
Pacheco and Rishi Rice combined 

2511
02:16:44,840 --> 02:16:51,000
for 130 points. 
This is the team where, well, 

2512
02:16:51,000 --> 02:16:53,400
Nico goes. 
I'm trying to think what other 

2513
02:16:54,200 --> 02:16:57,680
you know, bucks. 
I think you are in play here. 

2514
02:17:00,080 --> 02:17:04,559
You gotta get an AFC, yeah. 
It's it's probably the Dolphins.

2515
02:17:05,280 --> 02:17:06,920
I mean, at least you could get a
piece. 

2516
02:17:06,959 --> 02:17:09,160
You could get a. 
Or it's maybe the Browns. 

2517
02:17:09,160 --> 02:17:12,120
Or the Browns, yeah. 
But is Amari gone? 

2518
02:17:12,120 --> 02:17:14,000
I think Amari's gone and Joku 
just went. 

2519
02:17:16,280 --> 02:17:17,879
I think it's probably justice 
here. 

2520
02:17:18,680 --> 02:17:20,760
It's justice or a Chan. 
I don't know if you guys want to

2521
02:17:20,799 --> 02:17:21,320
build that. 
Out. 

2522
02:17:21,320 --> 02:17:24,559
That's what I'm wrestling with. 
I really think we want justice 

2523
02:17:24,559 --> 02:17:27,959
for this build. 
Do you think we need the advance

2524
02:17:27,959 --> 02:17:31,400
rate boost in two of six with 
with HN or not? 

2525
02:17:31,600 --> 02:17:33,959
We can do that through a 
different team can't. 

2526
02:17:33,959 --> 02:17:36,680
We through a different team, 
Yeah, we can, yeah. 

2527
02:17:36,680 --> 02:17:38,719
And and we're not going to get 
another Dolphin, probably. 

2528
02:17:39,160 --> 02:17:40,879
We need to get the Raven here, I
think. 

2529
02:17:41,040 --> 02:17:45,719
Yeah, I I. 
Agree the I guess the only thing

2530
02:17:45,719 --> 02:17:47,680
that sucks, but it's it's 
mitigated easy. 

2531
02:17:47,680 --> 02:17:49,360
And I were talking about this 
when we did our stream. 

2532
02:17:49,360 --> 02:17:51,760
By the way, if you're a YouTube 
member on my channel, you can 

2533
02:17:51,760 --> 02:17:53,719
watch those three big mitten 
drafts easy. 

2534
02:17:53,719 --> 02:17:56,680
And I did. 
The thing that kind of sucks is 

2535
02:17:56,680 --> 02:18:00,280
like Ford and Singletary would 
be the other running backs, but 

2536
02:18:00,280 --> 02:18:03,280
they would play Baltimore in 
round two if there's not an 

2537
02:18:03,280 --> 02:18:06,280
upset. 
So that like, slightly takes the

2538
02:18:06,280 --> 02:18:08,600
shine off of it. 
But I don't think it's bad in 

2539
02:18:08,600 --> 02:18:12,120
this kind of structure where 
it's so small. 

2540
02:18:13,200 --> 02:18:14,320
Sorry, what? 
What? 

2541
02:18:14,320 --> 02:18:15,080
What? 
What is it? 

2542
02:18:15,120 --> 02:18:18,120
I'm saying if we're building out
another AFC team, the way the 

2543
02:18:18,120 --> 02:18:22,799
prices fall would be Cleveland 
or Houston, which isn't as 

2544
02:18:22,799 --> 02:18:26,520
attractive going against our 
Baltimore bags in round two. 

2545
02:18:26,719 --> 02:18:30,200
But because this is such a small
tournament, I don't even know if

2546
02:18:30,200 --> 02:18:33,120
it's a huge deal. 
Right. 

2547
02:18:33,360 --> 02:18:35,040
You also. 
I mean Montgomery's kind of 

2548
02:18:35,040 --> 02:18:40,080
interesting with the hope that 
the Rams win or the Rams. 

2549
02:18:40,320 --> 02:18:42,320
We we want the Rams to lose or 
win. 

2550
02:18:42,320 --> 02:18:43,680
I can't. 
I'm confused. 

2551
02:18:44,879 --> 02:18:47,879
How do the How do the we? 
We could. 

2552
02:18:47,879 --> 02:18:50,400
We could definitely play 
Montgomery and then like a 

2553
02:18:50,400 --> 02:18:54,120
Jameson Williams or Josh 
Reynolds type. 

2554
02:18:54,120 --> 02:18:55,440
Thing They have to play each 
other. 

2555
02:18:55,440 --> 02:18:56,840
The Cowboys and Lions have to 
play each other. 

2556
02:18:56,840 --> 02:18:58,760
If they both OK, if. 
You go, Rashad White. 

2557
02:18:59,879 --> 02:19:02,080
All right, I'm putting Rashad 
White in because we were burning

2558
02:19:02,080 --> 02:19:05,600
time here. 
I think we'd probably go. 

2559
02:19:05,840 --> 02:19:08,440
If the If the Rams win, then the
Lions just lose. 

2560
02:19:08,600 --> 02:19:10,639
They play the Lions. 
You were like trying to figure 

2561
02:19:10,639 --> 02:19:12,240
it out. 
It's like but if the. 

2562
02:19:12,240 --> 02:19:14,400
Rams always play. 
The lions are. 

2563
02:19:15,280 --> 02:19:17,360
The lines are gone. 
That's why they don't play 

2564
02:19:17,360 --> 02:19:19,799
anymore. 
They just don't exist. 

2565
02:19:19,840 --> 02:19:23,680
They don't exist. 
Yeah, the Cowboys and Lions play

2566
02:19:23,680 --> 02:19:27,879
each other if they both win, no 
matter what, two and three seed 

2567
02:19:27,879 --> 02:19:30,240
curse, right? 
Yeah. 

2568
02:19:30,280 --> 02:19:35,440
Yeah, yeah, it's so. 
Funny, so my thought would be 

2569
02:19:35,760 --> 02:19:36,879
like. 
Mike Evans. 

2570
02:19:37,280 --> 02:19:40,360
Godwin and oh holy shit I I 
thought we were down to to 

2571
02:19:40,360 --> 02:19:42,200
Godwin. 
I didn't even realize Evans was 

2572
02:19:42,200 --> 02:19:44,559
still here. 
No, I regretted saying White 

2573
02:19:44,559 --> 02:19:45,480
quietly. 
I didn't. 

2574
02:19:45,639 --> 02:19:48,120
I didn't admit to my regrets, 
but I was like, I should have 

2575
02:19:48,120 --> 02:19:50,560
said Evans. 
But but now we get both, yeah. 

2576
02:19:50,760 --> 02:19:53,400
Yeah, that's great. 
White and Evans is great. 

2577
02:19:53,400 --> 02:20:02,920
Advanced Rate Monster so EDN. 
With this Lavar Jackson. 

2578
02:20:03,280 --> 02:20:07,520
Oh, Pete, our last pick is is 
Mark Andrews, isn't it, 'cause 

2579
02:20:07,520 --> 02:20:10,200
we already have all the advance 
rate shit and now we get the the

2580
02:20:10,200 --> 02:20:13,840
hammer with Baltimore and this. 
If we get the Baltimore, Dallas 

2581
02:20:13,840 --> 02:20:17,520
Super Bowl, we get the hammer. 
Grudge Loving it. 

2582
02:20:17,840 --> 02:20:19,920
Just fucking get getting the 
hammer out. 

2583
02:20:21,360 --> 02:20:25,960
All right field. 
Yeah, I mean, just otherwise 

2584
02:20:26,080 --> 02:20:29,000
this is the exact kind of build 
where you can afford it and 

2585
02:20:29,000 --> 02:20:31,480
don't even have to be like, 
well, we might need Bateman's 

2586
02:20:31,600 --> 02:20:33,840
points in you know, round two or
whatever. 

2587
02:20:35,480 --> 02:20:37,560
I like that call a lot. 
Me too. 

2588
02:20:37,800 --> 02:20:40,440
This is the advance. 
Rate an updated. 

2589
02:20:42,280 --> 02:20:45,080
They keep saying positive stuff 
and everyone I talked to is 

2590
02:20:45,080 --> 02:20:46,320
like. 
There's no way. 

2591
02:20:47,200 --> 02:20:49,240
But I'm like, but they keep 
saying he's going to play. 

2592
02:20:50,760 --> 02:20:55,520
Yeah. 
I think with how with with the 

2593
02:20:55,520 --> 02:20:58,520
Tampa Bay and all the Dallas and
and the advance rate stuff, we 

2594
02:20:58,520 --> 02:21:01,880
already have. 
I'm I'm very much on board with 

2595
02:21:01,880 --> 02:21:03,960
it. 
Yeah, we want to build out the 

2596
02:21:03,960 --> 02:21:05,080
Ravens. 
The Ravens are going on the 

2597
02:21:05,080 --> 02:21:08,360
Super Bowl here, so. 
Yeah, you get the extra week 

2598
02:21:08,360 --> 02:21:10,840
before the Super Bowl like that.
It would be. 

2599
02:21:11,480 --> 02:21:13,080
He'll play in the Super Bowl, 
dude. 

2600
02:21:13,440 --> 02:21:15,360
Remember when Tyrell Owens 
played for the Eagles? 

2601
02:21:15,360 --> 02:21:17,280
A few like 20 years ago, I 
guess. 

2602
02:21:17,280 --> 02:21:18,320
Now. 
A few years ago? 

2603
02:21:19,200 --> 02:21:19,880
Wait. 
A few years? 

2604
02:21:19,960 --> 02:21:24,160
Oh, wait. 
So Gretch, this would have been 

2605
02:21:24,160 --> 02:21:29,040
your the spot like to have your 
initial conversation right of 

2606
02:21:29,040 --> 02:21:31,200
like a second quarterback, 
you're basically deciding 

2607
02:21:31,200 --> 02:21:34,400
between do you want the extra 
Super Bowl piece with Andrews or

2608
02:21:34,400 --> 02:21:37,520
do you want Baker for like, 
maybe you get the. 

2609
02:21:37,560 --> 02:21:40,520
Win. 
Maybe he outscores Dak one of 

2610
02:21:40,520 --> 02:21:44,160
the two weeks. 
That was my thought was just, I 

2611
02:21:44,160 --> 02:21:46,760
mean you're playing best ball a 
little bit more with it and 

2612
02:21:46,760 --> 02:21:48,720
you're because it's a smaller 
field and you're saying 2 

2613
02:21:48,720 --> 02:21:53,440
quarterbacks gives you a better 
shot at a high QB score just to 

2614
02:21:53,440 --> 02:21:55,720
help you advance in the first 
couple rounds because of the way

2615
02:21:55,720 --> 02:21:59,000
that the advance rate was. 
And that's a good point. 

2616
02:21:59,000 --> 02:22:00,240
Yeah, I mean that would have 
worked. 

2617
02:22:00,240 --> 02:22:02,960
But when you guys were saying 
this is an advance rate monster,

2618
02:22:03,760 --> 02:22:06,880
I think that's right. 
And then I think that's when you

2619
02:22:07,040 --> 02:22:09,320
consider Andrews right. 
I mean that just. 

2620
02:22:10,400 --> 02:22:15,000
Plus it's a it's a pretty sweet 
team where we may lose Rashad 

2621
02:22:15,000 --> 02:22:17,480
White and Mike Evans, but then 
you have Justice Hill and Zay 

2622
02:22:17,480 --> 02:22:23,120
Flowers coming in and you get 
this potential match up between 

2623
02:22:23,120 --> 02:22:27,960
the Cowboys and the Lions where 
you know that that's going to be

2624
02:22:27,960 --> 02:22:30,120
pretty good for the Dallas 
offense. 

2625
02:22:30,840 --> 02:22:34,120
So in round two, this is a 
pretty strong team and then the 

2626
02:22:34,120 --> 02:22:37,160
conference championship is where
Andrews would first be live to 

2627
02:22:37,160 --> 02:22:40,080
return. 
Yeah, yeah. 

2628
02:22:40,080 --> 02:22:43,520
Also the the, the subplots of 
this draft, can we just like 

2629
02:22:44,360 --> 02:22:47,520
just wide this back? 
So we have EDN who's been 

2630
02:22:47,520 --> 02:22:49,320
sitting in this room for like 5 
hours. 

2631
02:22:49,320 --> 02:22:51,880
Didn't know we're drafting auto 
drafts, his first two picks. 

2632
02:22:51,880 --> 02:22:54,960
We have Alex, who hops in to 
have a good time drafting while 

2633
02:22:54,960 --> 02:22:58,480
on stream, then says I didn't 
realize fucking Liam. 

2634
02:22:58,480 --> 02:23:00,840
We said, I mean. 
Alex, come on, Alex. 

2635
02:23:00,840 --> 02:23:02,800
Like you know, Liam's in the 
stream. 

2636
02:23:03,080 --> 02:23:06,200
We said there's no way he 
doesn't Like, I was like, I 

2637
02:23:06,200 --> 02:23:08,240
don't think we should take Alan 
because we're just going to get 

2638
02:23:08,240 --> 02:23:11,440
sniped by Liam all day. 
And then you took out you were 

2639
02:23:11,440 --> 02:23:14,160
like, fucking dude, I'm taking 
Alan too then. 

2640
02:23:15,600 --> 02:23:18,720
It was like it was, which is 
just so funny. 

2641
02:23:18,840 --> 02:23:22,320
We have an auto drafter. 
We have Liam playing the hits we

2642
02:23:22,320 --> 02:23:24,080
like. 
Things break right for our team,

2643
02:23:24,080 --> 02:23:27,200
like we had clean selections 
almost all the way through what 

2644
02:23:27,200 --> 02:23:30,000
we want to do. 
And then Alex is just getting 

2645
02:23:30,000 --> 02:23:33,520
like shipped left and right. 
Shrapnel and then Copper and 

2646
02:23:33,520 --> 02:23:36,720
Easy are like trying to tiptoe 
around a minefield to build out 

2647
02:23:36,720 --> 02:23:39,720
a logical team. 
I mean, it's pretty sweet. 

2648
02:23:39,720 --> 02:23:42,400
What a draft. 
Alex, Alex said. 

2649
02:23:42,400 --> 02:23:44,480
I heard you say it, but it was 
after I picked. 

2650
02:23:44,480 --> 02:23:48,240
I mean, that is that you get 
that sinking feeling of oh fuck,

2651
02:23:49,760 --> 02:23:53,080
Oh no. 
Oh, man. 

2652
02:23:53,920 --> 02:24:00,720
All right, dudes, this was fun. 
Tomorrow night, we're going to 

2653
02:24:00,720 --> 02:24:03,520
have the stat chasing guys on. 
We're going to do kind of a 

2654
02:24:03,520 --> 02:24:07,400
hodgepodge stream. 
We'll do some more underdog. 

2655
02:24:08,280 --> 02:24:11,640
Obviously sacrilegious has been 
deep in the weeds on that stuff 

2656
02:24:11,960 --> 02:24:15,040
with leg Up. 
We will do some more FFPC, get 

2657
02:24:15,040 --> 02:24:17,040
their thoughts, updated 
ownership. 

2658
02:24:17,040 --> 02:24:19,720
Maybe we'll get some news 
tomorrow that'll make that 

2659
02:24:19,720 --> 02:24:22,960
conversation interesting. 
And then we're also going to 

2660
02:24:22,960 --> 02:24:25,280
talk about the NFC contest as 
well. 

2661
02:24:25,280 --> 02:24:27,040
We've been talking about it in 
our group chat. 

2662
02:24:27,040 --> 02:24:28,800
I know some of you guys were 
wondering if we're going to play

2663
02:24:28,800 --> 02:24:30,560
it. 
We're going to get a few entries

2664
02:24:30,560 --> 02:24:33,200
in and we'll talk through some 
strategy for that. 

2665
02:24:33,200 --> 02:24:36,400
So that'll be tomorrow, 8:15 PM 
Eastern with Draco and 

2666
02:24:36,400 --> 02:24:40,320
Sacrilegious, and then we're 
booked for Friday, 8:15 again 

2667
02:24:40,320 --> 02:24:44,000
with Dink and Leonie. 
You guys can get access to those

2668
02:24:44,000 --> 02:24:47,760
ownership projections and ship 
chasing and leg up discords. 

2669
02:24:48,880 --> 02:24:52,480
Gretch, anything else from you 
other than needing to go rest up

2670
02:24:52,480 --> 02:24:56,880
and drink some tea? 
No, no. 

2671
02:24:56,880 --> 02:24:58,640
I mean, people have been asking 
me about stealing bananas. 

2672
02:24:58,640 --> 02:25:00,160
Sean and I are recording 
tomorrow. 

2673
02:25:00,440 --> 02:25:01,760
We haven't recorded in a couple 
weeks. 

2674
02:25:01,760 --> 02:25:06,160
With all my travel, I'm going to
be right in a little bit in the 

2675
02:25:06,160 --> 02:25:08,280
next couple weeks. 
But other than that, nothing. 

2676
02:25:08,280 --> 02:25:10,640
Nothing that's out. 
Got home late last night. 

2677
02:25:11,000 --> 02:25:12,480
Yeah. 
Going to get some sleep tonight.

2678
02:25:13,680 --> 02:25:16,320
Beautiful. 
Anything else for you, Pat? 

2679
02:25:18,960 --> 02:25:20,520
I've been teasing this bracket 
tool. 

2680
02:25:20,520 --> 02:25:24,720
I'm hoping to get that out 
tomorrow or Friday. 

2681
02:25:25,520 --> 02:25:26,960
Working on it. 
We'll see. 

2682
02:25:27,240 --> 02:25:33,000
The other thing I'll tease is 
that we are trying to, on the 

2683
02:25:33,000 --> 02:25:39,400
fly reconfigure the underdog 
tool for DraftKings, so I'm 

2684
02:25:39,400 --> 02:25:43,720
hoping to get that out as soon 
as possible as well. 

2685
02:25:43,920 --> 02:25:46,880
Pete went black and white and 
then jumped off the stream. 

2686
02:25:47,240 --> 02:25:50,200
I accidentally like fat fingered
one of my other video recording 

2687
02:25:50,200 --> 02:25:59,320
apps and it broke my my webcam. 
Yeah hop in the the discord you 

2688
02:25:59,320 --> 02:26:03,480
got like the pop it up and get 
access to those ownership 

2689
02:26:03,560 --> 02:26:06,080
projections. 
Yeah, love this week. 

2690
02:26:06,360 --> 02:26:08,080
Thank you guys for all your your
input. 

2691
02:26:08,080 --> 02:26:11,640
I know Pat appreciates it too. 
Helping tweak, Oh yeah, those 

2692
02:26:11,800 --> 02:26:13,600
ownership. 
I mean it's it's I'm trying to 

2693
02:26:13,600 --> 02:26:14,880
project what everyone's gonna 
do. 

2694
02:26:14,880 --> 02:26:18,720
So like it's it's like feedback 
is very much welcome. 

2695
02:26:18,960 --> 02:26:22,240
The chat the chat this week is 
is crucial. 

2696
02:26:22,240 --> 02:26:24,360
It's always fun to to hear the 
thought this week. 

2697
02:26:24,840 --> 02:26:27,520
I mean, literally. 
Sentiment is the whole game. 

2698
02:26:28,160 --> 02:26:31,400
Well, I do the same thing on my 
Sunday morning crams, right? 

2699
02:26:31,400 --> 02:26:32,800
Where there's like 2 levels of 
ownership. 

2700
02:26:32,800 --> 02:26:35,640
There's like the generic, like 
the field ownership. 

2701
02:26:35,640 --> 02:26:39,520
And then there's like, what is 
our group of Galaxy brainers and

2702
02:26:39,520 --> 02:26:42,000
ship chasers that everyone going
to be thinking. 

2703
02:26:42,000 --> 02:26:43,920
And so the and like that 
ownership matters too. 

2704
02:26:43,920 --> 02:26:45,480
And that's where you can like 
get steam. 

2705
02:26:45,680 --> 02:26:49,680
And it's like our sub community 
could theoretically like flip 

2706
02:26:49,720 --> 02:26:51,360
Allen over Lamar. 
Like that's. 

2707
02:26:51,360 --> 02:26:52,360
I don't think that's going to 
happen. 

2708
02:26:52,360 --> 02:26:54,240
It's in play. 
But it's in play. 

2709
02:26:54,920 --> 02:26:57,280
Yeah, one thing that makes me 
feel like it's probably not 

2710
02:26:57,280 --> 02:26:59,480
going to happen is then I was 
getting pushed back on Tucker. 

2711
02:26:59,760 --> 02:27:02,920
And I think you probably have to
have a big contingent of people 

2712
02:27:02,920 --> 02:27:05,840
being willing to just straight 
up fade the Ravens for them to 

2713
02:27:05,840 --> 02:27:08,520
flip. 
But cause 'cause you're not 

2714
02:27:09,400 --> 02:27:10,920
flowers is not that. 
Fun to play. 

2715
02:27:11,280 --> 02:27:14,840
You're going to plan Lamar just 
to avoid playing Flowers, But 

2716
02:27:15,120 --> 02:27:17,440
yeah, it's a big, it's a big 
decision point this week. 

2717
02:27:18,480 --> 02:27:22,200
All right, guys, we will see you
back here tomorrow, 8:15 PM 

2718
02:27:22,200 --> 02:27:24,840
Eastern. 
Have a great rest of your 

2719
02:27:24,840 --> 02:27:26,400
evening. 
Good luck in those playoff 

2720
02:27:26,400 --> 02:27:27,280
basketball streets.